Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV
Posted: Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:59 pm
John Parker
Eyewitness: Human toll of eight-year Ukrainian army onslaught in Eastern Ukraine is shocking
Originally published: CovertAction Magazine on September 15, 2022 by John Parker (more by CovertAction Magazine) | (Posted Sep 19, 2022)
WarUkraineNewswire
The eastern Ukrainian countryside is being littered with Ukrainian Army mines while some towns have been abandoned as residents had to escape Ukrainian Army shelling.
Residents consider Americans who send money to the Ukrainian government in the belief that they are protecting them from the Russians to be “idiotic” and “foolish.”
The third part of an eyewitness report. (See Part 1; and Part II)
From May 1 to May 12, I traveled to both Russia and the Lugansk People’s Republic, an independent republic in the Donbas region, formerly part of eastern Ukraine. The purpose of this fact-finding mission initiated by the Socialist Unity Party and Struggle-La-Lucha.org was to report the suppressed information challenging the narrative of NATO and its member states, led by the U.S., in this proxy war in Ukraine against Russia.
Alexey Albu [Source: workers.org]
My visit to Lugansk was made possible with the assistance of Borotba (Struggle), a socialist political organization in Ukraine and Donbas that we have worked with for many years. Alexey Albu, one of the leaders of Borotba, also provided translation for me during interviews. This is the third part of my report.
On May 8, two days after we visited the Rubizhne shelter, we made our way from Lugansk city to the villages of Sokilnyky and Krymske. Both had recently been taken over by the joint forces of the Lugansk People’s Militia (LPM) and the Russian military.
After the 2014 U.S.-sponsored coup in Ukraine that brought to power a pro-Washington, anti-Moscow regime partnering with fascist forces, the majority Russian-speaking people of the Donbas region decided they did not want any part of this backsliding of history.
Dramatic evidence of the new coup government’s fascist leanings came in its support for the neo-Nazis who burned alive activists at Odessa’s House of Trade Unions on May 2, 2014. To this day, none of the perpetrators has been charged with any crime. Given that incident, the people of the Donbas region declared themselves the independent Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR). They voted by 89% in Donetsk and 96% in Lugansk for that change.
Instead of honoring the wishes of the people of Donbas, Kyiv labeled them terrorists and sent armed forces with heavy artillery and aircraft against civilians, threatening to wipe out the population. The Lugansk People’s Militia was organized to defend the area.
Valery Bolotov proclaims the Act of Independence of the Lugansk Peoples Republic May 12 2014 Source wikipediaorg
When the Minsk II cease-fire agreements took effect in 2015, the opposing sides’ positions were drawn. Sokilnyky was controlled by the Lugansk People’s Republic. Krymske was occupied and controlled by the Ukrainian military.
If the cease-fire stipulations under the Minsk II agreements were adhered to by the Ukrainian military, it would have protected this community. Instead, the agreement was used by Ukraine to create a one-sided shooting range against civilians in Sokilnyky. Today no one lives there and the homes and buildings have been destroyed.
[Source: nationsonline.org]
The road that runs between Sokilnyky and Krymske is called Vulytsya Horkoho, named for the great Russian writer Maxim Gorky. Google also translates it as “Bitter Street.” The name is fitting since less than a quarter-mile north runs the Siverskyi Donets River—the border between two conflicting sides in a war.
When you travel along this road toward Sokilnyky, you see idle and broken-down Ukrainian tanks that were used against the villagers after 2014, when no military force was there to protect those communities.
From left: Alexey Albu of Borotba; John Parker of Socialist Unity Party; and Evgeniy Miroshnichenko, member of the Youth Parliament, State Duma of Russia. [Source: Photo courtesy of John Parker]
Ukraine continued war after Minsk II
The 122-mm shells from the Ukrainian government’s arsenal rained down on villagers from the north of the river’s edge and west of Sokilnyky, aimed at anyone driving along this road or just relaxing at home. These shells are capable of stopping tanks, penetrating bunkers and taking down aircraft. And as we could see along the way, many homes were blown to bits or barely left standing.
The 2015 Minsk II agreements were negotiated by Russia, Ukraine, Germany, France and the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, allowing for some self-determination of the Donbas regions and the right to be protected by their own military forces—the Lugansk People’s Militia and the Donetsk People’s Militia.
By 2017, however, most residents on this road east of Krymske who survived left the area since it was too dangerous.
Ukrainian soldier passes by ruins of bombed out building in the abandoned town of Krymske in eastern Ukraine. [Source: militarytimes.com]
Although the Minsk agreements forbade attacks within this area, our guide told us that, after 2015, the Lugansk militia forces began calling this street the “Road of Life,” where LPR forces had to travel fast to keep from being shot at. “For seven years Nazis violated the Minsk agreements…They attacked peaceful people who lived in this village during those Minsk violations,” explained our LPM guide, who led us to our next location further west toward Krymske.
We saw further evidence of houses resembling Swiss cheese rather than safe spaces for families. We stopped on the edge of Zynamyanka village, where a monument commemorating fallen World War II soldiers was located. We had to follow the steps of the person in front since the area was filled with unexploded shells dropped by the Ukrainian forces.
We reached an administrative building that was now more cinder block pieces than structure. Two wires strewn across our path warned us not to go any further since that area was not partially cleared of unexploded shells or mines.
Against the advice of our guide, a very brave journalist from the news service Izvestia continued walking and laying a path for us. Why would he take such a risk? Because, he said, he felt it was important for us to see up close the monument with the names of those from this and nearby villages of both Ukrainian and Russian Soviet soldiers killed fighting the Nazi threat during World War II—so we could appreciate the respect these residents had for their relatives who fought fascists. And to appreciate their suffering in being targeted by those who adhere to that same fascist ideology.
My comrades insisted they walk in front of me, following the soldier from the LPM. Then it hit me hard. From our friends in Borotba to the guides from the Lugansk People’s Militia and brave journalists dedicated to telling the truth—they were all here assisting me, putting their bodies on the line to keep me safe, because they believed the message I would relay back to the U.S. was that important.
I truly wish the U.S. anti-war movement that has so cynically and arrogantly dismissed any facts or testimony coming from the people in Lugansk and Donetsk, who refuse to acknowledge their experiences or even existence, could feel just one-tenth of what I felt in that moment.
When we reached the monument, carefully, the words with the hundreds of names of buried soldiers read: “Your Heroism Is Immortal and Your Glory Is Eternal.”
[Video walking to the Monument in Zynam’yanka] https://www.dropbox.com/s/d0r1r9pv7bm72 ... t.mp4?dl=0
Sister towns separated by war
The once Ukrainian-held territory in and around Krymske, just west of us, included areas within eyeshot of the LPR-held Sokilnyky village. In 2014 almost 2,000 people lived in Krymske, and 1,000 lived in Sokilnyky. They lie about five minutes from each other by car.
In fact, the communities were very close. One of the Izvestia reporters with us wrote: “If a guy from Krymske married a girl from Sokilnyky, the wedding was played in two villages at once.” But after the battles in 2014 and by 2015, the two communities remained separated with blocks of concrete and barbed wire.
After passing the town of Sokilnyky, we drove about a quarter mile to where the Ukrainian military had installed bunkers and barracks to target that village, using these places to launch missiles and those 122-mm shells against the LPR-held territories, even in the years when civilians were still there.
The south side of this “Bitter Street” had been swept for mines but the north side had not, so to remain relatively safe we stayed on the south side. On the ground were strewn Kalashnikov 5.45 caliber bullets and casings leading into an eight-foot dugout to tunnels of dirt and darkness protected by sandbags from retaliatory fire.
The Ukrainian forces were routed after the February operation by the Russians and the LPM so, undoubtedly, gunfire was exchanged. But even if there was activity targeting this compound in response to shelling, it lies more than a quarter-mile from 99% of the homes in the Krymske village.
In other words, the civilian population living in Krymske village was only victimized by the Azov, Aidar or Right Sector fascist regiments leading the Ukrainian military occupation there. This is according to the residents we spoke to, who also verified that those leading these soldiers were wearing Nazi regiment colors and fascist symbols.
About 100 feet down the road from the bunker, taking us to the eastern edge of Krymske, we observed on the side of the road a leftover decoy that had been used to frighten the Lugansk militia forces, mimicking a Swedish surface-to-air missile. The threat would have been believable since those real missiles and other military aid totaling $102 million was promised to Ukraine from Sweden on June 2—this on top of the other anti-armor weaponry already delivered.
Sweden’s AT4 anti-armor weapon
My photo of a decoy surface-to-air missile weapon by a bunker near Sokilnyky. [Source: Photo courtesy of John Parker]
Nazi symbols
Due to the actual weapons present at that moment, the most common phrase I heard observing these sites was again, “Don’t step there”—not only because of the unexploded shells on this side of the river but also because the Ukrainian military would “sow” the area with mines that could not be seen in the grass.
We then drove a few feet further to a complex that was part of a tuberculosis clinic. The Ukrainian forces retrofitted this clinic for war by evicting the patients and health-care staff. In one of the buildings, the Ukrainian soldiers felt comfortable enough to scrawl in large letters the word representing a fascist soccer team in Ukraine, the ULTRAS—a team, we were told by one of the journalists with us, that is owned by an oligarch who funds Nazi regiments.
Ukrainian football fans unfurl Nazi flag at soccer match in Kyiv in 2012. [Source: theguardian.com]
Something that seemed out of place, given the graffiti praising Nazi symbols and organizations, was a letter shaped as a heart with the colors of the Ukrainian flag from a child thanking these Nazi-led Ukrainian forces for keeping them safe. That is not surprising, since the Azov Battalion set up children’s “educational” facilities. According to a Time article from January 7, 2021, the battalion even has an entire building lent to them by the Zelensky government in Kyiv that serves such a purpose.
In addition to general misinformation passed on in their libraries, this facility raises funds by selling key chains, t-shirts and other items adorned with swastikas and other Nazi symbols. Again, this building is on loan from the Ukrainian government, supporting what goes on there.
In another building here, 122-mm shells were stacked on top of each other. Their presence in this room seemed to be a testament to the threat against humanity symbolically displayed over half of one of the walls with drawings of a swastika and a Black Sun or Sonnenrad.
[Video of tuberculosis hospital complex] https://www.dropbox.com/s/e1bygfenpqi4n ... l.mp4?dl=0
It should be noted that this Azov identifier is the same symbol used by the white supremacist shooter who recently targeted Black shoppers in Buffalo, New York. He was inspired by a white supremacist in New Zealand who murdered 51 Muslim worshippers in two mosques there. That New Zealand killer said he was in contact with the Azov Battalion and planned to go to Ukraine for military training.
As shocking as this is, it should not be too surprising that young people are falling into the hands of these unchecked fascist movements. In the 2021 report “Like, Share, Recruit: How a White-Supremacist Militia Uses Facebook to Radicalize and Train New Members,” Time explained how Azov’s use of Facebook’s algorithm drives white supremacists and disaffected youth toward them, allowing Azov exponential visibility growth.
Just a few steps away, another building turned military bunker contained lookout holes punched through the walls, with coordinates written in pen giving targeting coordinates for the LPM positions and civilians when they lived there. On another wall the words “No One But Us” were written in Ukrainian in blue and yellow.
Military-industrial profits
We were accompanied by more than one camera crew with journalists representing various media from Ukraine and Russia. During our inspection of this site, one of the journalists from a Russian news agency found a container that once held explosive materials. This object, the journalist said, came from either the U.S. or a Western European country.
Of course, this is not surprising given that U.S. military aid to Ukraine, as reported in the May 20 New York Times, amounts to more money than given in any kind of aid to any country in the last decade. “It is roughly two times the amount given in 2011 to Afghanistan, the largest U.S. foreign aid recipient until now,” reported the Times.
The U.S. had already surpassed the entire defense budget of Russia back in May. Perhaps the reason for this unprecedented funding, in addition to world domination, also has to do with profits. Business Insider reported on May 23: “One of the largest defense contractors in the nation donated to nearly 150 members of Congress as they debated Ukraine military aid.”
On May 3, President Joe Biden went to Lockheed Martin’s Pike County Operations facility in Troy, Alabama, and did a photo op at the Javelin missile production facility.
Joe Biden poses as workers in Troy, Alabama, plant apply finishing touches to a Javelin missile poised to be sent to the front lines in Ukraine. [Source: nytimes.com]
And the top member of Congress in charge of the military budget, Democratic Representative Adam Smith from Washington State is also the top recipient of money from the weapons makers.
Adam Smith—a war profiteer. [Source: theintercept.com]
In its 2010 Citizens United decision, the United States Supreme Court ruled that corporations may spend unlimited amounts on elections. When the selfish ambitions of bought-and-paid-for politicians coincide with the goals of the ruling class, even the sky is not the limit. The death and fear created are of no consequence to them.
Speaking of fear, while exploring this hospital complex I heard a constant buzzing, like a flying bee with a megaphone. When I asked what that sound was, I was told it was from a drone overhead. This caused me some concern, knowing that in April the U.S. had been training Ukrainian soldiers in the use of a very advanced drone called the Switchblade Drone 600.
Zelensky is presented as a superhero in Western media, but even children in eastern Ukraine see through the façade. [Source: scheerpost.com]
I figured that was enough war talk for a child and that I’d give him a break and go back to my previous challenge to race him to the edge of the building. But instead of wanting to lighten the conversation or go play like most children his age in the U.S., he wanted to give some advice to the Ukrainian military and Zelensky: “Now the Ukrainian forces hide in Donetsk, but it will be better if they give up, because the peace will come sooner and we can repair our cities.”
After thanking him for helping me get the message to people in the U.S., he said, “Yes, I told you because I understand that my words can have a little influence on people in the world and maybe peace will come more quickly here.”
Although they may run around in a playground when war is present, children are forced to ponder things they should not have to. But when war comes knocking at their door—or shattering their windows—they have no choice.
[Video of 11-yr-old Ivan] https://www.dropbox.com/s/k4u7ain4geyz7qw/Ivan.mp4?dl=0
Laughter and solidarity
I then approached a few elderly women sitting on a bench. I asked about the situation here under Ukrainian military occupation. They all described the military as being led by the Aidar Battalion, which they could tell by the colors of their patches and Nazi symbols they wore.
Members of Pro-Nazi Aidar Battalion who are hated by the people of eastern Ukraine. [Source: english.almayadeen.net]
They said that, although not all of the soldiers were Nazis, their leadership was. “They would make them get down on their knees and hit and humiliate them,” said one of the women about the treatment of rank-and-file soldiers who were not Nazis by their superior officers. They all assumed that this was designed to indoctrinate them.
When I asked one woman what it was like during the occupation, her eyes quickly darted down and her head gestured “no.” This made me wonder how horrible an experience she may have had, given the documented war crimes of the Aidar Battalion during this conflict, especially against women. So out of compassion for her, I did not ask again. If they humiliated their own troops, what might they have done to these civilians?
When I asked the women what they thought about people in the U.S. who send money to the Ukrainian government in the belief that they are protecting them from the Russians, one exclaimed: “Duratskiy!” A few of the definitions for that Russian word are “foolish,” “fatuous” and “idiotic.”
When Alexey told me it meant “stupid” and I repeated it in Russian, they all started laughing—first shyly, then out loud when they saw I joined them. I was glad our shared laughter communicated better than words my solidarity with their struggles here today.
[Video of Krymske residents] https://www.dropbox.com/s/vl3nd6qni4s8i ... h.mp4?dl=0
The last interview in Krymske was with a member of the Communist Party. He explained the situation in 2014, when the people here demanded their governor reject the coup government in Kyiv. But, he said, the governor sided with the coup and left.
After we talked, he walked me to an area where two monuments commemorated all of the people from the village who were killed fighting the Nazis during World War II and another honoring the soldiers who were not from that village, but died there fighting the German fascist military. This individual said he was very thankful that the Ukrainian occupiers did not destroy these two monuments as they had done in other parts of the Lugansk region.
[Video of WWII memorial in Krymske] https://www.dropbox.com/s/bel4jr9j9xso8 ... t.mp4?dl=0
The visit to Krymske was inspiring. From the determination and wit of the women on the bench, to the 11-year-old willing to take time out from the playground for important matters, to the passion of the communist who was so proud of the monuments with names of his own family members inscribed on one of them—and all of this community’s unceasing commitment to fight fascism if it rises here once again.
It is also clear that, here, the military that is despised is the Ukrainian one. When we first arrived, we noticed people walking around as if life were normal—although it is not. But now, for the remaining residents in Krymske—no longer threatened by the Ukrainian soldiers—cessation of the worst horrors of war and occupation allows them to take a breath.
Fire in the sky
Smoke in sky from exploding projectile above Lugansk city. [Source: Photo courtesy of John Parker]
The day before we visited Krymske, Alexey Albu and Evgeniy Miroshnichenko, a member of the Youth Parliament under the State Duma of Russia, invited me on a tour of Lugansk, the capital city of the LPR. We observed the monuments and met with officials from the Lugansk city administration. We were, however, momentarily interrupted by the sight of smoke in the sky, coming from either a drone or rocket that had been intercepted by a Russian missile.
As we walked further I saw a playground and happier thoughts took over.
Playgrounds are wonderful. They are a place where children go to socialize and spend their energy with such excitement and joy. However, given the proximity of shelling or the very recent liberation of areas once occupied by the Ukrainian military, the priorities of food and shelter forced a lack of maintenance in those areas.
However, there in the city of Lugansk, which had been mostly free of attack for some time, I saw a beautiful playground full of children on the swings and slides and varied apparatus designed for the sole purpose of making joyful noises.
But what I had just seen threatening the skies above this well-attended and most precious sanctuary was a killer of children—thankfully destroyed, this time. What would have happened to this playground had the Ukrainian military, now armed with even more sophisticated weaponry thanks to the Biden administration and every other complicit politician, been successful?
The new reality we face as activists and members of organizations promoting social justice and peace is that the propaganda of the ruling class has become so capable, so well-funded, so fluid in its use of social media and Hollywood, that most, including many in the movement for social justice, are not even aware of its effects in molding our own opinions and distorting our sense of reality.
Playground in Lugansk city. [Source: Photo courtesy of John Parker]
This three-part series began solely as an attempt to expose the fact that the war in Ukraine has been manufactured to further the expansion of U.S.-led NATO, targeting Russia and China. But perhaps the more important story is how the State Department and its right hand—the corporate media—are today able to so effectively use false information manufactured in such a consistent and frequent manner and build on those past prejudices against Russian people.
The political left in the U.S. and Europe has a big problem that comes from a cultural disease developed especially by U.S. capitalism’s history of racism. Not only is there class bias, but the added dehumanization with all its arrogant trappings intrinsic to the system of racism carries over to anyone deemed as “the other.”
In the U.S., the “other” is usually anyone who is non-white and is therefore not taken as seriously, not as believable, not as legitimate and reliable a source of information, and definitely not due as much empathy. This is even carried over to certain white people deemed as the other. And we are told by the U.S. government who the latest other is—sometimes it is the Iraqis and their leaders, or it is the Syrians and their leadership, or the Libyans and their leadership.
Despite the fact that information that comes from the U.S. corporate media during a U.S. war drive is consistently false—from the Lusitania incident in 1915 or the Gulf of Tonkin lie pushing the U.S. into war with Vietnam or the lies pushing war in Iraq and Libya—we are supposed to accept it as gospel and reject all information coming from the official or unofficial sources from the latest target of U.S. imperialism.
[Source: claytoonz.com]
This is why the sources of information that comes directly from white supremacist neo-Nazi military organizations in Ukraine is more trusted than those in the Donbas region—because the people of Donbas, in Lugansk and Donetsk, are now among the other.
My friends from Borotba, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the United Communist Party—the other; the 82-year-old woman from the shelter in Rubizhne, who was crying over the bombing of her home by Ukrainian tanks and the loss of all her belongings; and the women in Krymskoye who identified the Right Sector and Aidar Batallion as their occupiers and torturers; the entire political and religious leadership in Lugansk; the Lugansk People’s Militia members—all the other.
And even to much of the “left” in the U.S. and Western Europe, who refused to even acknowledge their existence, they are deserving of neither an ear nor a heart for empathy.
Is the history of the Soviet Union or Russia, before this current conflict, filled with the intentional targeting of civilians in any degree close to that of the U.S. military and NATO?
Did the Soviet Union yesterday, or Russia today, participate in European and U.S. colonialism or neocolonialism, or have a worldwide troop deployment and military bases anywhere near that of the U.S. or NATO?
Some will say that Russia is not the Soviet Union and it is now capitalist. Well, so are Finland and Sweden. But because years of Cold War propaganda did not target the integrity of the people of Finland and Sweden, folks see them in a different light—even though those governments said nothing about the NATO expansion for the past 20 years that caused this crisis and are now enabling and actively expanding the most belligerent military alliance in history at this critical and dangerous moment in time.
Accusations that are today thrown against Russia, if thrown against their people or soldiers, would not be so easily believed, even though the people of Sweden and Finland did not play the deciding role in defeating fascism in World War II that the people of Russia heroically played.
Hopefully, this information countering the lies of the ruling class will help to refocus our attention on the reality that the U.S. and its imperialist allies are driving us not toward fighting runaway inflation that threatens to impoverish us all, and not toward solutions stopping life-threatening climate change, but are instead driving us toward World War III. And that is a very bad thing.
So let’s refocus, quickly.
John Parker is a 2022 Socialist Unity Party and Peace and Freedom Party candidate for the U.S. Senate from California.
Parker has been a union organizer, public school teacher, and is the Coordinator of the Harriet Tubman Center for Social Justice.
https://mronline.org/2022/09/19/eyewitn ... -shocking/
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Many reasons why price cap on Russian oil exports cannot work
Originally published: Peoples Dispatch on September 16, 2022 by Shirin Akhter and C Saratchand (more by Peoples Dispatch) | (Posted Sep 19, 2022)
In their ongoing economic war on Russia, the United States and its allies propose a price cap on Russian oil exports. The oil price cap idea promoted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggests that oil-consuming nations organize into a buyer’s cartel to limit Russia’s revenues from oil exports. This proposal follows previous measures against Russia, which have not dented its economy to the extent that it would be induced to change its posture (as the U.S. and its allies desire) concerning the conflict in Ukraine.
Instead, the direct restrictions placed on Russian exports, principally of primary commodities such as oil and natural gas, have increased their world prices. They are so high that Russia’s export earnings have increased even if the volumes of some export have declined.
Russia currently accounts for about 10% of global oil, producing approximately 10 million barrels daily. Of these, Russia exports about 7 million barrels per day. If its exports decline, the resulting demand-supply mismatch will have speculators (principally international finance) bidding oil prices up to astronomical levels. Consequently, the proposed price cap, going by the intentions of the U.S. and its allies, is meant to work by reducing Russian oil export earnings without reducing their magnitude.
Let us examine the US’ plan and that of its “allies” in detail. First, the ceiling price on Russian oil exports will be at a level that exceeds the cost of production of oil but below world oil prices. Second, the cap is meant to be enforced principally through controls over shipping insurance dominated by firms based in the U.S. or its allies. It would be with the hope that if the price cap is successful, world oil prices and traded oil volumes will remain relatively stable, but Russia’s oil export earnings will decline.
If this decline is sufficiently large, the U.S. and its allies can expect Russia to change its posture in the conflict in a way they find acceptable. However, these hopes are unlikely to be realized for several reasons.
The U.S. has failed to convince OPEC to increase oil production, partly because of capacity constraints in coming years. Further, the U.S. currently lacks strategic wherewithal (the “unipolar moment” has passed) to “persuade” OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia to activate their limited spare oil production capacity. Now, Iranian oil exports are part of world trade but outside the framework of the so-called rules-based international order due to unilateral U.S. sanctions. Venezuelan oil production is also constrained by years of unilateral U.S. sanctions. In both countries, markedly increasing production capacity will require years of investment. Moreover, their oil exports will be more expensive for European buyers than Russian oil due to higher transportation costs.
This is why Russian oil exports are irreplaceable in world trade for years to come.
Let us also examine the likely consequences of attempts by the U.S. and its allies to enforce a price cap on Russian oil exports. Firstly, it will require a cartel of most actual and potential importers of Russian oil. China and India have effectively ruled out participating in any such exercise, using different idioms to articulate their reasoning. China is unlikely to accept a negotiation that strategically weakens Russia (the possible result if a price cap is effective) since this would be detrimental to China’s strategic standing vis-a-vis the U.S.
If India agrees to join this proposed buyer’s cartel, there could be at least two adverse consequences even if the price cap is effective. One, it could undermine India’s defense capacity, which disproportionately depends on Russian imports. Two, it could enhance the strategic proximity between China and Russia. This closeness could become antagonistic to India’s interests. Strategic proximity to the U.S. may not counterbalance it in the future.
Secondly, Russia could respond to attempts to enforce a price cap by partially withholding its oil exports, leading to a rise in world oil prices. If Russian oil prices are below world market prices but above the proposed cap, some countries would find it worthwhile to import Russian oil. It has been argued that stopping oil production may require repairs when production restarts. These expenses may deter Russia from partially curtailing oil production.
However, this would be true only if the difference between Russia’s earnings from oil exports (when selling at an intermediate price between the world and capped prices) and the cost of restarting temporarily unused oil wells is lower than the earnings from oil sold at the capped price. If world oil prices rise adequately because of partial halts in oil production, it would be worthwhile for Russia to refuse to export oil at the capped price.
Thirdly, other countries that export oil or related commodities will rightly apprehend the success of the price cap as a strategy the U.S. and its allies can use against them should they stray from the “rules-based international order.” Therefore, they are unlikely to want to cooperate with the price cap idea. Further, if Russia exports all its oil at the capped price, as long as it is below the world oil prices, any adjustment of oil supply towards demand will involve only non-Russian oil producers.
The increased volatility in the earnings of non-Russian oil-exporting countries would make them not want to cooperate with the proposed price cap.
Fourth, it is unclear how shipping insurance companies based in the U.S. (and its allies) can monitor the actual price at which Russian oil is being exported. Suppose a country imports fertilizer and oil from Russia. The difference between the actual price of Russian oil and the capped price could be recorded in documents as part of the transaction value of fertilizer exports. Further, insurance companies in Russia or countries that import oil from it can provide insurance. It should not be very complicated since shipping insurance companies in the U.S. or its allies primarily provide “expertise” and are not the source of the premiums. It is also possible that oil traders could “blend” oil from Russian and other sources and label it non-Russian to operate outside the framework of any price cap. Further, they could use mid-ocean ship-to-ship oil transfers to mark Russian oil as having originated in other locations, making the price cap inapplicable to such cargo.
Fifth, it is not militarily feasible for the U.S. armed forces to impound ships carrying Russian oil exports since it would invite massive retaliation by the Russian Federation’s armed forces.
Sixth, Russia could retaliate against attempts to enforce a price cap on its oil exports in many other ways besides reducing production. For instance, contrary to reports in the mainstream media, Russia could escalate militarily in Ukraine without using nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons. The Russian Federation government may conclude that the negative fallout of defeating Ukraine militarily by using overwhelming conventional force is lesser than if it allows itself to be bound by a price cap.
Resisting attempts to enforce the price cap by dropping the relative restraint of its armed forces would lead to a steep rise in casualties and refugee inflows from Ukraine into Europe and the Russian Federation. The latter may calculate that a swift end to the armed conflict will change the “cost-benefit” calculations of the U.S. and its allies, making the proposed price cap lose its raison d’être.
Seventh, Russia is a leading primary commodity exporter. It could institute selective export restrictions of primary commodities against countries that seek to enforce the price cap. If these restrictions involve grains, fertilizers etc., it could greatly aggravate the world food crisis.
So we have a strong likelihood of Russian retaliation, an unwilling India and China, the impossibility of substituting Russian crude and gas, and unilateral sanctions raising rather than lowering Russia’s earnings. The proposed oil price cap does not seem worthwhile for those who propose it. It will likely be a strategic setback to the U.S., principally reflecting a fundamental feature of the contemporary international political economy—it is not strategically possible for the U.S. to successfully contend simultaneously with China and Russia.
https://mronline.org/2022/09/19/many-re ... nnot-work/
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Pushilin's address to Putin on the referendum in the DPR
September 20, 15:15
Pushilin officially appealed to Putin, urging him to recognize the results of the referendum in the DNR as soon as possible after it was held.
Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich!
Dear compatriots!
I appeal to all Russians, to all Russian people who wholeheartedly empathize with what is happening now in the Donbass.
For the ninth year there has been a war on our land, and all this time the Ukrainian regime has been doing everything to wipe Donbass off the face of the earth. In addition to shelling, Kyiv arranged an economic, transport, water blockade, trying to create a humanitarian catastrophe on our territory.
At the end of last year, the enemy began to pull together a huge amount of military equipment and personnel to the line of contact, and the number of provocations increased significantly. Western countries supplied military equipment to Kyiv in huge volumes. In early 2022, the escalation from Ukraine began to gain momentum again. The offensive of Kyiv was a matter of several days, which was later confirmed by the evidence found in the headquarters left by the enemy.
The recognition of the Donetsk People's Republic by Russia and the start of a special military operation thwarted the aggressive plans of the Kyiv regime. A liberation operation began, and the allied forces of the Russian Federation, the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics began to drive the enemy out of the settlements of Donbass occupied by Ukraine.
We all saw the state in which the enemy left Volnovakha, Mariupol and other settlements. The militants did not hide from the locals that they would not leave stone unturned from their homes. We have hundreds of testimonies that Ukrainian terrorists from tanks fired at multi-storey buildings at point-blank range, set fire to what they could not destroy with shelling.
This is exactly how these monsters are behaving now, shelling our settlements without any military necessity.
Shelling the central square of Donetsk, they know that there are no military installations on it. While shelling the Baku Commissars Square, they know that this is a crowded place where public transport stops, shops, and banks are located. Yesterday, cynical shelling by Ukraine claimed the lives of 10 people, wounded 11.
Ukraine opens fire on the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic from American HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, Tochka-U tactical missile systems, NATO 155 mm howitzers, French Caesar self-propelled howitzers, Uragan and Grad multiple launch rocket systems. Thousands of guns are directed daily at children, women, the elderly - civilians of Donbass.
The enemy scatters prohibited mines "Petal" in residential areas only to injure as many civilians as possible. Fools, you can't say otherwise. 67 cases of undermining civilians, including two children, have already been registered at Lepestki.
In total, 9,044 residents of the Republic died during the war, including 120 children!
Armed formations of Ukraine purposefully disable critical infrastructure facilities. Every day, I repeat, every day, hundreds of substations are de-energized by shelling from Ukraine, high-voltage power lines are damaged, tens of thousands of subscribers are left without electricity.
Only in our historical territory, without taking into account the liberated settlements, about eight thousand apartment buildings and more than 72 thousand private houses were damaged.
Residents of the Republic steadfastly endure the terrorist attacks of Ukrainian militants. I am proud of the courage of my countrymen. But any patience comes to an end. Ukraine deliberately, I would even say defiantly, crossed all possible red lines. Then in 2014, fencing off the nationalist criminal Kyiv regime, we held a referendum on the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic, we were sure that we would definitely hold the second one - on joining the Russian Federation. People are looking forward to this event the most. This is the main aspiration of the people of Donbass - to be part of the Russian Federation.
Therefore, we are absolutely confident in the results of the referendum. And we intend to carry it out immediately.
This event will be the restoration of historical justice, the approach of which millions of Russian people crave.
Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich!
In the event of a positive decision following the referendum, which we have no doubts about, I ask you to consider the issue of the Donetsk People's Republic joining the Russian Federation as soon as possible. The long-suffering people of Donbass deserved to be part of the Great Country, which they always considered their Motherland.
This event will be the restoration of historical justice, the approach of which millions of Russian people crave.
Denis Pushilin,
Head of the Donetsk People's Republic
PS.
We are waiting for Donbass (and not only) to our native harbor. Donbass deserved it like no one else - with their blood and sweat.
The referendum in the DPR will also be held from 23 to 27 September. Both face-to-face and part-time. At the end of September they will become part of Russia.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7873836.html
New frontiers
September 20, 17:12
The borders of Russia with Ukraine after the referendums on the reunification of the DNR, LNR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
And after the recognition of the results of the referendums and their entry into Russia, a situation will arise when the enemy invades these borders. Which must be destroyed.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7874093.html
Ukraine could have accepted Minsk II and preserved territorial integrity, it could have accepted the early offer of the loss of Donbass, de-militarization and de-nazification, but nooo..., the colonial masters in the US had other ideas, like fighting to the last Ukrainian. Eventually Zelensky will be remembered as the worst sort of quisling.
By referenda
September 20, 19:42
Summing up the referendums.
1. Referendums will be held from 23 to 27 September in the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
2. Referendums will be held both in-person and in absentia (with door-to-door visits) for security reasons.
3. After the referenda, all territories will apply for joining the Russian Federation, which will be considered as a matter of priority.
4. After consideration of applications, all territories will become part of the Russian Federation - de facto, 4 new subjects of the Russian Federation.
5. DPR and LPR retain their names and flags. It is not yet clear by region. Zaporizhia is proposed to be called the Zaporozhye region.
6. According to sociological surveys, one can count on 70-85% for joining the Russian Federation, with an average turnout of 65-75%.
7. The USA, NATO and Germany have declared that they do not recognize the results of the referendums. In Ukraine, they immediately became hysterical that holding referendums would cross out the slightest chance of negotiations.
8. The war in Ukraine, of course, will not stop, but now it will have a qualitatively different context. Today, he is waiting for the announcement of specific measures to modernize the NWO.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7874549.html
Google Translator
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On The Upcoming Putin Speech And Announcements
Moscow has made a decision how to proceed in the proxy war with NATO in the Ukraine.
We do not yet know what the decision is.
The President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will hold a TV speech at 8 pm Moscow time (17:00 UTC) followed by an announcement by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
In July Putin has held a press conference or speech where he said with regards to Ukraine something like: "We haven't even started yet."
It may be that Russia will do that now.
That a decision had been made was noticeable.
Yesterday the parliaments of the Luhansk and Donetz People's Republics suddenly requested their government to immediately launch referendums about the republics accession to the Russian Federation. Today Denis Pushilin, the head of of the DNR government, announced that a referendum will be held on September 23 to 27.
Also yesterday the Russian parliament introduced amendments to the Russian Criminal Code which will increase the prison penalties for 'voluntary surrender', 'looting', 'non-fulfillment of military orders' during a time of mobilization, martial law and war. Companies who reject to produce for the military will also be penalized. The amendments passed their second reading in parliament today and will become law after a third reading.
If the LNR and DPR vote to become part of Russia, and if Russia accepts it, any attack of them will be an act of war against Russia. The 'Special Military Operation', which Russia is currently proceeding with, would thus change into something way more serious. Russia could declare the conflict to be a war. It could then use conscripts in war functions, mobilize reserves and use its full arsenal against the Ukraine. Potentially also against those who support it with weapons and other war material.
I find this whole seemingly hasty process atypical for Putin's usual way.
My hunch is that Russia received information over some weapon systems the U.S. is secretly providing to the Ukraine. This could be missiles with several hundred kilometer range or other types of weapons that could seriously threaten Russia's towns and cities.
If so, Russia has to do something now to end the war before its becomes more than a nuisance for Russia and its people. Ending means of course by winning it.
Training up a mobilization force takes about three months. It would put it on the front in the mid of winter, a season during which Russian forces can operate quite well.
Posted by b at 16:32 UTC | Comments (6)
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/o ... l#comments
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
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Colonelcassad
Kherson region will briefly become an independent state. Literally for a few hours.
The question of the referendum in the Kherson region sounds like this.
"Are you for the withdrawal of the Kherson region from Ukraine, the formation of an independent state by the Kherson region and its entry into the Russian Federation as a subject of the Russian Federation?"
Accordingly, in the period from the announcement of the final results of the referendum to the adoption of the application for the entry of the Kherson Republic (?) into Russia, from a legal point of view, there will be an independent state with its capital in Kherson. This is the Crimean scenario, where in the period from the announcement of the results of the referendum to the admission of Crimea to Russia, Crimea de jure was formally an independent state for some time.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Can't buy a sit-rep.....