Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part IV
Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:04 am
Ukraine SitRep - No Southern Push Yet, Kiev Government Trouble, Tanks And Escalation
Last week, following two days of heavy fighting along the southern front in Ukraine, I concluded that the expected push from the south into the back of the Ukrainian forces at the Donetzk frontline, was finally happening.
Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front
I was wrong. I, and other analysts following the war, had been deceived by the sudden rush of news from that frontline. It said that Russian forces made progress in a large number of towns. But nearly as soon as I had published my peace that news died down. In the following days nothing happened but the usual exchange of artillery fire and minor local clashes.
I am not sure what happened. But the Ukrainian army also seemed to have believed that something big was coming as it had rushed an additional mechanized brigade to that line.
While the big one has not happened yet there are several probing attacks in the area with some successes around Vuhledar.
Dima of the Military Summary channel noted (vid) a Russian report which said that two Ukrainian officers had crossed the southern frontline and surrendered to Russian forces. He speculates that the whole fluff up in the news was created as a diversion to allow for a secure extraction of those officers. We have no evidence for that but it may well have happened that way.
It is interesting that this was followed by additional government turmoil in Kiev as another senior advisor of president Zelensky, the deputy head of his office Kyrylo Tymoshenko, resigned. Additionally several deputy ministers and oblast governors were fired:
eputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov also resigned, following reports he oversaw the purchase of military food supplies at inflated prices from a relatively unknown firm. The department called this a "technical mistake" and claimed no money had changed hands.
The defence minister himself - Oleksii Reznikov - has been under scrutiny for the same reason.
A host of other top officials were dismissed on Tuesday, including:
Deputy Prosecutor General Oleskiy Symonenko
Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukerya
Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda
Deputy Minister for Social Policy Vitaliy Muzychenko
And the regional governors of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson
I urge people to be careful with corruption allegations in Ukraine. These often come from the extralegal National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU). The bureau was setup in 2014, after the Maidan coup. It was created and controlled by the U.S. embassy. NABU was used in various power plays to remove people who the embassy disliked.
In 2020 the supreme court of Ukraine ruled that NABU was outside of the law and should not have the investigative powers it assumed. This came after NABU had investigated several supreme court judges in anti-corruption cases. That fight between two camps of power in Ukraine led to a constitutional crisis.
A year later Zelensky fired the leading supreme court judge who had written the opinion on NABU. The judge appealed the decision and the court took his side. The conflict remains unresolved. The judge fled to Austria where he is now threatened with arrest under a Ukrainian warrant.
There are many of such little reported power plays in Kiev with Zelensky moving more and more into a dictatorial role. Over time his position will become very lonely.
But in the east the battle continues and Ukraine keeps losing the war. The Telegram channel Intel Slava Z notes:
Prigozhin on the objectives of the actions of PMC "Wagner" in the Artemovsk region.
“The task of taking Bakhmut is to destroy the Ukrainian army in the vicinity of the city and prevent any offensive actions in any direction of the front. All of their combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are sent to Bakhmut. And PMC "Wagner" destroys them, opening up operational opportunities in other areas"
This confirms my previous observation:
I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.
There are still Pentagon officials who deny the real situation:
Russian forces took control of the city of Bakhmut almost a year ago after Moscow opened a phase of the war that focused on territories in the Donbas, the far eastern corner of Ukraine comprised of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.
Recent successes by Ukrainian fighters in the Bakhmut area have prompted Moscow to send in reinforcements, said the senior U.S. military official who spoke on condition of anonymity. U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said Ukrainian troops are presently in control of Bakhmut, though Moscow claimed this week that its forces have taken control of a nearby salt-mining town, Soledar.
“Ukraine forces continue to successfully hold and defend Bakhmut,” the U.S. military official said, adding the new Russian troops are being “rushed” to the battlefield “ill trained” and “ill equipped.”
To read such nonsense in the Stars and Stripes, a newspaper for the U.S. military, is quite revealing. Can these people even read a map?
Bakhmut has never been under the Russian forces control. This was the situation near Bakhmut 6 months ago. The Russian held territory is red.
This is the current situation around Bakhmut. The city is nearly encircled. All major roads leading in and out are under Russian artillery control.
It is a big meat grinder. The German intelligence service BND says that the Ukrainian forces lose hundreds of soldiers per day in that city alone. The Russian defense ministry does not report on Bakhmut as that is Wagner's territory. But it daily reports if additional hundreds of losses on the Ukrainian side.
In a useless attempt to stop the steady drain of Ukrainian forces the 'west' is moving additional weapons into Ukraine. The U.S. wants to unlock the transfer of tanks by other countries to Ukraine by delivering parts of its own tank reserves:
The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.
The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.
The White House declined to comment.
...
The shift in the U.S. position follows a call on Jan. 17 between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which Mr. Biden agreed to look into providing the Abrams tanks against the judgment of the Pentagon. A senior German official said that the issue had been the subject of intense negotiation between Washington and Berlin for more than a week and appeared to be on the way to resolution.
...
Previously, the Pentagon had ruled out providing the tanks to Ukraine, saying they were too complicated for the Ukrainians to maintain and operate. But White House and State Department officials were described as being more open to providing Abrams to break the diplomatic logjam holding up Leopard deliveries.
U.S. Joint Chiefs Chair Milley and Defense Secretary Austin have been against any tank delivery. They are afraid of the consequences of this steady mission creep. The Biden administration steadily blows through each of its own red lines. Biden had started out by declaring that the U.S. would only deliver defensive weapons. Then came HIMARS and other longer range weapons that hit targets in Russia. Delivering tanks was a red line. What will come next? Fighter planes that have no chance to defeat superior Russian air defenses?
They military are not alone in their fear. The Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands of its Doomsday Clock:
The Clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.
Biden is in a bind. He started a war that he is not allowed to lose because losing in Ukraine will come with the loss of U.S. financial hegemony:
The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it. Yet it has become an existential issue for the U.S. precisely because of this egregious initial miscalculation that has been subsequently levered-up into a preposterous narrative of a floundering, at any moment ‘collapsing’ Russia.
...
This evolving New Order existentially threatens dollar hegemony – the U.S. created its hegemony through demanding that oil (and other commodities) be priced in dollars, and by facilitating a frenetic financialisation of asset markets in the U.S. It is this demand for dollars which alone has allowed the U.S. to fund its government deficit (and its defence budget) for nothing.
...
Team Biden thus has painted the U.S. into a tight Ukraine ‘corner’. But at this stage – realistically – what can the White House do? It cannot withdraw the narrative of Russia’s ‘coming humiliation’ and defeat. They cannot let the narrative go because it has become an existential component to save what it can of the ‘Ponzi’. To admit that Russia ‘has won’ would be akin to saying that the ‘Ponzi’ will have to ‘close the fund’ to further withdrawals (just as Nixon did in 1971, when he shut withdrawals from the Gold window).
Commentator Yves Smith has provocatively argued, ‘What if Russia decisively wins – yet the western press is directed to not notice?’ Presumably, in such a situation, the economic confrontation between the West and New Global Order states must escalate into a wider, longer war.
And escalating it is. With ever increasing speed.
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On the increase in the French military budget
January 24, 20:16
On the increase in the French military budget
French President Emmanuel Macron delivered an address to the army last Friday at the Mont-de-Marsan air base.
The main message was the president's intention to increase ) military budget for 2024-2030 from 295 to 413 billion euros.
It is expected that the plan to finance the French army will be presented in the spring as part of the "Law on military programming".
Rybar's team managed to communicate with one of the parliamentarians who are directly involved in the development of the law. He shared so far confidential budget provisions.
President Macron no longer sees the economic point of maintaining a French military presence in Africa, given the increased activity of Russia, Turkey, China and local nationalist movements.
France is considering the possibility of a gradual complete withdrawal not only from the Sahel, but also from other regions of French influence.
The new French foreign policy in Africa will no longer include a military component - only the maintenance of embassies and consulates, as well as the promotion of economic interests.
The budget will be largely reallocated in favor of the Air Force and air reconnaissance, as well as in favor of the nuclear program and the Navy.
The military intelligence budget is planned to be increased by 60%.
CBO analysis and failing preparation ( https://t.me/rybar/42256) for the ORION military exercises convinced the French leadership that the national army was not ready for large-scale military conflicts. In this regard, Paris is betting on nuclear deterrence.
The situation with the combat readiness of the French troops was also significantly aggravated by assistance to Ukraine - some units lost ( https://t.me/rybar/36022 ) a significant part of the military equipment required by the state.
Given that the French army is increasingly relying ( https://t.me/rybar/41507 ) on private contractors for air and space intelligence, it is not hard to guess that the main beneficiaries of the revision of the military budget will be the intelligence community and PMCs.
In the context of the reduction in funding for the ground forces, the functions of operational activities in the conflict zone will also gradually go to private traders.
https://t.me/rybar/42953 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8124236.html
Google Translator
That final bit of speculation is interesting. The obvious motivation for all the (capitalist) players is to keep down the number of body-bags returned home under government auspices. No real concern for the lives of their citizens rather concern for political stability,"ain't no time to be fighting a war on the home front too.' The contractors will hire many foreign nationals and can do much to obfuscate their losses with a bit of lax government oversight. Good for 'stability' and recruitment too.
The use of mercenaries is as about old as history. The Thirty Years war was fought almost entirely with mercenaries, with prominent generals acting as contractors. The historically bad outcome of that conflict put mercs in bad light, though of course ultimate responsibility belongs to the politicians. The rise of the nation state largely put a end to the practice by states, though not by corporations. Plenty of willing cannon fodder to be found in the new masses of 'patriots' created by the 'Age of Revolutions'.
As the US Army found in Vietnam armies of conscripts are unsuitable for overseas occupations, especially as causalities mount. So they went to the all volunteer army("cause those folks have no room to complain"...) but as the army advertised itself as a job training program there developed a paucity of grunts.(It's also been noted that people of color shy away from that role, statistically. How about that...the incidence of racist atrocities committed by US forces against other than white people is a constant.) Enter the mercenary.
Citizens of nominal democracies these days are not keen on dying or being maimed for non-existential reasons. And to be honest urbanites might not be as suitable for military service as persons accustomed to more physical lifestyles. The use of 'savage'proxies(a gross generality)also has precedent in that usual role model, the Roman Empire. Ostrogoths, ISIS, no great difference. And the heads of these so-called Islamic terrorist organization are actually contractors in the Thirty Years War mode. The paymaster these days US/NATO not the Hapsburgs but little difference.
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“Several Ukrainian Officials Are Fired as Corruption Scandal Balloons”
This is the headline in the latest online edition of The New York Times.
The article goes on to say:
“The dismissals included governors of several regions in the biggest upheaval in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government since the Russian invasion began.”
For its part, ‘The Financial Tiimes’ also has a front page report on the same entitled “Ukraine officials resign as Volodymyr Zelensky moves to ease corruption concerns.” The subtitle goes on to inform us: “Deputy ministers, officials and regional governors among those replaced as president seeks to clean up public life.”
So what is going on?
To their credit, the FT do offer an explanation for the purge, telling us that “President Volodymyr Zelenskyy..sought to defuse concerns over corruption at a time when he is requesting more western weaponry to repel Russian forces.” We are told the resignations and firings are all about “misuse of state and military funds.”
One of the officials forced out was publicly accused of concluding deals to procure food supplies to the army at inflated prices. Can you imagine that? Others were said to have traveled abroad at the expense of foreign donors. Gosh!
The FT concludes its article with an upbeat comment from the President of the Kyiv School of Economics: “it’s a good sign that the system responded to public pressure. It’s also a sign that democracy here works.”
So much for mainstream spin. Now I take pleasure in offering another analysis of what is going on which does not differ from the link of causality buried in the FT article but takes it several steps further into how the real world works.
My source for this alternative news is the Russian talk show “Time Will Tell (Vremy Pokazhet) which by chance I found when flipping channels on the statellite television in my hotel located on the remote and colonial ambiance island La Digue in the Seychelles.
For a more precise geographical positioning, I am now 500 meters from the Plantation House build in 1818, now a national museum-park, where the soft porn movie “Return of Emmanuel” was filmed, and where some Bacardi rum adverts were also filmed. Population of the island – 2,613. Sole industry – tourism.
This is not a bad place to sit out a full-blown NATO -Russia war. Maybe the Russian tourists here know something. In any case my hotel subscribes to Russia’s state broadcaster Pervy Kanal, the hosts to “Time Will Tell.”
This particular show I know well as a legitimate competitor to the ” Evening with Solovyov” programs that I have cited in my reporting of the past couple of years. The European ban on Russian satellite television has prevented me from following Pervy Kanal. But here we are together again on La Digue.
Today’s show dealt with a number of issues, starting with Polish ambitions to seize the Lvov region of Western Ukraine and to establish ‘colonial control’ over a rump state of Ukraine reaching as far east as the Dnepr. The presenter also informed the audience about the request Polish officials are now quietly passing along to the European Union that they be reimbursed for the cost of the Leopard tanks that Warsaw is about to gift to Kiev.
Then the show moved on to the issue before us, the purge of high officials in the Zelensky regime. The presenter gave us the missing link on a platter, a link that our Western media giants just seem to have overlooked: namely the connection between the ongoing purge and the visit of CIA director William Burns to Kiev last week for talks with Zelensky.
That unexpected visit had been described on CNN as serving to reassure Zelensky of steadfast U.S. support, as well as to share U.S. intelligence on likely Russian military action in the foreseeable future. Of course, there are other U.S. officials who could do this as well or better than Burns, particularly those wearing military uniforms.How much more logical that a CIA Director would be briefing Zelensky on what he must do to clean the stables, to publicly throw out his corrupt buddies if he is to have any chance of getting further funding from the now Republican controlled House. It would not be inappropriate to call this ‘regime change’.
Panelists on the talk show identified leading members of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party who have been forced from office as folks who were aligned with Boris Johnson. Their replacements are expected to be people more closely aligned with the United States.
So much for democracy at work in Ukraine, Messrs “Financial Times..”
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/01/24/ ... -balloons/
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The economics of war - how much does it cost to train Ukrainians to fight on the Abrams
January 24, 23:15
The economics of war - how much does it cost to train Ukrainians to fight on the Abrams
Let's say right away: for a number of completely objective reasons, it is impossible to accurately assess either the cost of a tank or the cost of training crews. The most important of them is that the accounting of the modern army is incredibly complex. In 2021, the average American soldier cost the US $136,000 a year, a small cost by the standards of the country.
How much the equipment removed from storage costs is a rather philosophical question, and the answer to it depends on the point of view. A similar story is with staff training - we doubt that insurance and a relative support program will be included in this amount. In the case of training Ukrainian tank crews, it is even difficult to predict the program: for an American tank crew member, it takes 22 weeks (about six months), for a repairman - about 13 weeks (3 months), and equipment for various combat vehicle systems - from 22 to 34 weeks. The commander needs more time, but there are huge doubts that the Ukrainians will be trained for so long.
According to rough estimates, a two-month course for one Ukrainian tanker will cost $50,000-200,000, including live firing and work with equipment and simulators. The training of 100 crews will cost $100 million. But maybe more - we don't know how many combat firing and operating hours are included, and one real shot from a cannon costs from $1 to $10 thousand, depending on the projectile. So even $100 million can easily turn into a billion, especially considering the retraining of technical staff.
The supply of modern combat vehicles, at least from storage, is a serious expense. Even for fantastically wealthy America, an extra couple of billion in aid is not as easy as it sounds. And we are not talking about aviation - that's where every plane really becomes golden.
https://t.me/suverennews/855 - zinc
PS. Regarding the question raised of the cost of training Ukrainian cannon fodder to drive American tanks. Here it is worth understanding the following things.
1. Training is carried out at the expense of already allocated funds.
2. The money goes to Pentagon defense contractors, it doesn't go to Ukraine.
3. Any corruption component remains an internal affair of the American public-private defense partnership.
4. From the point of view of the total costs of the war in Ukraine, the cost of training cannon fodder is insignificant.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8124779.html
Of course, 'money is no object'....But time is, and a two month course is probably just enough to get that tanker killed. Using experienced Ukrainian personnel won't help much as US and Soviet design and operation are strikingly different.
On the situation around Artemovsk
January 24, 21:56
About talk about the operational environment of Artemovsk.
It is still too early to talk about the operational environment of the Artemov group. After taking Kleshcheevka and advancing towards Krasnoe, our heavy artillery began to cover the Chasov Yar - Artemovsk road going through Krasnoe, but it is still possible to drive along the road, although now this is fraught with the risk of coverage. Nevertheless, this is not yet complete fire control, which can be established in the event of successful assault operations in Krasny and further advance to Chasov Yar.
In the case of another road that goes to Artemovsk from the same Chasov Yar, but to the north, it is not yet actively covered by our artillery and is relatively safe for traffic. Now our troops are fighting street battles in Krasnaya Gora and today they have caught hold of Paraskoveevka, establishing control over which will allow them to bring up artillery and begin to cover this road from the northwest, increasing the pressure of assault groups and DRGs in the direction of this road.
Thus, the operational encirclement of the Artemovskaya grouping can be the result of successful operations in these two areas, and even now our troops have come close enough to solving these problems. The enemy command understands this, and even more so understands the Pentagon, therefore, in the past few days, talk has intensified about the need to retreat from Artemovsk, which the Americans are already talking about as inevitable, trying to sweeten the pill of defeat with talk about the unimportance of Artemovsk.
Broadcast of hostilities in Ukraine as usual in the telegram https://t.me/boris_rozhin - if you are interested, subscribe
PS. And yes, we will see Western tanks on the battlefields in the spring. It was pretty expected.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8124470.html
Google Translator
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Ukraine War’s First Anniversary and Beyond
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JANUARY 24, 2023
M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Russian T-90M Proryv (Breakthrough) main battle tank in action on the Donbass front lines recently
The first anniversary of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine falls on February 24. The Russian strategy of attrition war has not yet produced the desired political outcome but has been a success nonetheless.
The delusional “westernist” notions of the Moscow elite that Russia can be a dialogue partner of the West have dissipated thoroughly, with ex-German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s stunning disclosure recently that the West’s negotiations with Russia regarding the Minsk Agreement were an “attempt to give Ukraine time” and that Kiev had used it “to become stronger.”
Moscow reacted with bitterness and a sense of humiliation that the Russian ruling elite were taken for a ride. This awareness impacts the Ukraine conflict as it enters the second year. Thus, the annexation of the four regions of Ukraine — Donetsk and Lugansk [Donbass], Zaporozhye, Kherson oblasts — and Crimea, accounting for around one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, is a fait accompli now, and Kiev’s recognition of it is a pre-requisite for any future peace talks.
Moscow’s initial optimism in February-March that “the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting” (Sun Tzu) has also given way to the realism that the Biden Administration will not allow the war to end anytime soon until Russia is bled white and weakened. This led to the Russian withdrawal from Kharkhov and Kherson regions with a view to create a well-fortified defence line and dig in.
Putin finally accepted the army commanders’ demand for a partial mobilisation. The ensuing big deployment in Ukraine, alongside the build-up in Belarus, has put Russia for the first time in a commanding position militarily as the war enters the second year.
The Kremlin has put necessary mechanisms in place to galvanise the defence industry and the economy to meet the needs of the military operations in Ukraine. From a long-term perspective, one historic outcome of the conflict is going to be Russia’s emergence as an unassailable military power that draws comparison with the Soviet Red Army, which the West will never again dare to confront. This is yet to sink in.
Today, the Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov stated in an extraordinary interview with the journal Argumenti i Fakti that the newly approved Armed Forces development plan will guarantee the protection of Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and “create conditions for progress in the country’s social and economic development.
Under the plan approved by Putin, the Moscow and the Leningrad military districts will be created, three motorised rifle divisions will be formed in the Kherson and the Zaporozhye oblasts (that have been annexed in September) and an army corps will be built in the northwestern region of Karelia bordering Finland.
The internal western assessment is that the war is going badly for Ukraine. Spiegel reported last week that Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) “informed security politicians of the Bundestag in a secret meeting this week that the Ukrainian army is currently losing a three-digit number of soldiers every day in battles.”
The BND told the German MPs that it is particularly “alarmed by the high losses of the Ukrainian army in the battle for the strategically important city of Bakhmut” (in Donetsk) and warned that “the Russians’ capture of Bakhmut would have significant consequences, as it would allow Russia to make further forays into the interior of the country.”
Again, a Reuters report quoted a senior Biden Administration official who was speaking to a small group of reporters in Washington on Friday that there is “a high possibility” that the Russians will push the Ukrainians out of Bakhmut, which western military experts have called the “lynchpin” of the entire Ukrainian defence line in Donbass.
On the other hand, the Biden Administration is hoping to buy time till spring to revamp the pulverised Ukrainian military and equip it with advanced weaponry. The old stocks of Soviet-era weaponry have been exhausted and future supplies to Ukraine will have to be from hardware in service with NATO countries. That is easier said than done, and western defence industry will need time to restart production.
All the bravado that Kiev is preparing for an offensive to drive the Russians out of Ukraine has vanished. The signs are that a Russian offensive may have begun on the southern front, which is steadily advancing toward Zaporozhye city, a major industrial hub in Ukraine.
This offensive would have profound implications. Capture of the remaining 25% of the territory in Zaporozhye oblast, which is still under Kiev’s control, will make the land bridge between Crimea and the Russian hinterland impregnable to Ukrainian counter-offensive as well as strengthen the Russian control of the Azov Sea ports (which connect the Caspian Sea with the Black Sea and the Volga–Don Shipping Canal leading to St.Petersburg), apart from dramatically weakening the entire Ukrainian military deployment in Donbass and in the steppes on the eastern side of Dnieper River.
The big picture, therefore, as the war enters the second year is that the West is working feverishly on plans, with the Biden Administration leading from the rear, to deliver heavy armour to the Ukrainian military by spring, including German Leopard tanks. If that happens, Russia is sure to retaliate with strikes on supply routes and warehouses in western Ukraine.
On Thursday, Dmitry Medvedev, the outspoken former Russian president who is close to Putin and serves as deputy chairman of the powerful security council, explicitly warned, “Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends.”
However, there are mitigating factors. First, the results of Davos 2023 and the meeting of NATO defence ministers in Ramstein on Friday as well as the inter-party disputes in Washington over the budget and the US debt ceiling, etc. are pushing the Biden Administration to make a choice between a risky continuation of confrontation with Russia or slowing down the gravy train running through Ukraine, fixing their profits with the withdrawal from the project. For the Zelensky regime, this will mean that the good things in life may be coming to an end.
Last week, the influential Russian daily Izvestia featured an incisive essay authored by Viktor Medvedchuk, the veteran Ukrainian MP and oligarch-politician (based in Moscow currently) to the effect that “the process has started” in the unraveling of the regime in Kiev.
Medvedchuk reminds us of “an interesting trend” in Ukrainian politics. President Poroshenko had promised peace with Russia in one week but once in power did not fulfil the Minsk agreements, and “miserably lost the next election.” He was replaced by Vladimir Zelensky, who also promised a settlement with Russia in Donbass, but instead became “the personification of war. That is, the Ukrainian people are promised peace, and then they are deceived.” The western press has shoved under the carpet the reality that Zelensky’s support base is small and there is a silent majority that pines for peace.
The death of interior minister Denys Monastyrsky, a longtime aide to Zelensky, and his first deputy Yevgeny Enin in a helicopter crash in Kiev week ago in mysterious circumstances raises eyebrows, since the Ukrainian neo-Nazi militias operate out of his ministry. Only a day earlier came the surprise development of the resignation of Zelensky’s top adviser Alexey Arestovich for allegedly casting aspersions on the Ukrainian military.
In TV interviews since then, Arestovich has been voicing his misgivings about the conduct of the war. Then, there has been the murder of Denis Kireev, who was an important participant in the March peace talks with Russia. A major personnel shakeup today, following corruption claims, involved a deputy prosecutor general, the deputy head of the president’s office, the deputy defence minister and five regional governors so far.
Over and above this fluidity in Kiev, there is the ‘X’ factor — US domestic politics as it approaches the 2024 election year. The Republicans are insisting on an auditing of the tens of billions of dollars spent on Ukraine — $110 billion in military aid alone — making the Biden Administration accountable. The CIA chief William Burns paid an unpublicised visit to Kiev, reportedly to transmit the message that US arms supplies beyond July may become problematic.
On the other hand, revelations are growing on President Biden’s handling of classified documents, which may include sensitive materials on Ukraine. These are early days, but the 13-hour FBI search of his personal residence in Delaware on Friday is generating new questions about White House transparency on the issue. New developments in the document scandal could cut into Biden’s support as he prepares to announce a reelection bid.
All things taken into account, therefore, one tends to agree with Medvedchuk’s prognosis that the Ukraine conflict, as it enters the second year, “will either grow further, spreading to Europe and other countries, or it will be localised and resolved.”
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/01/ ... nd-beyond/
Last week, following two days of heavy fighting along the southern front in Ukraine, I concluded that the expected push from the south into the back of the Ukrainian forces at the Donetzk frontline, was finally happening.
Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front
I was wrong. I, and other analysts following the war, had been deceived by the sudden rush of news from that frontline. It said that Russian forces made progress in a large number of towns. But nearly as soon as I had published my peace that news died down. In the following days nothing happened but the usual exchange of artillery fire and minor local clashes.
I am not sure what happened. But the Ukrainian army also seemed to have believed that something big was coming as it had rushed an additional mechanized brigade to that line.
While the big one has not happened yet there are several probing attacks in the area with some successes around Vuhledar.
Dima of the Military Summary channel noted (vid) a Russian report which said that two Ukrainian officers had crossed the southern frontline and surrendered to Russian forces. He speculates that the whole fluff up in the news was created as a diversion to allow for a secure extraction of those officers. We have no evidence for that but it may well have happened that way.
It is interesting that this was followed by additional government turmoil in Kiev as another senior advisor of president Zelensky, the deputy head of his office Kyrylo Tymoshenko, resigned. Additionally several deputy ministers and oblast governors were fired:
eputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov also resigned, following reports he oversaw the purchase of military food supplies at inflated prices from a relatively unknown firm. The department called this a "technical mistake" and claimed no money had changed hands.
The defence minister himself - Oleksii Reznikov - has been under scrutiny for the same reason.
A host of other top officials were dismissed on Tuesday, including:
Deputy Prosecutor General Oleskiy Symonenko
Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukerya
Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda
Deputy Minister for Social Policy Vitaliy Muzychenko
And the regional governors of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson
I urge people to be careful with corruption allegations in Ukraine. These often come from the extralegal National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU). The bureau was setup in 2014, after the Maidan coup. It was created and controlled by the U.S. embassy. NABU was used in various power plays to remove people who the embassy disliked.
In 2020 the supreme court of Ukraine ruled that NABU was outside of the law and should not have the investigative powers it assumed. This came after NABU had investigated several supreme court judges in anti-corruption cases. That fight between two camps of power in Ukraine led to a constitutional crisis.
A year later Zelensky fired the leading supreme court judge who had written the opinion on NABU. The judge appealed the decision and the court took his side. The conflict remains unresolved. The judge fled to Austria where he is now threatened with arrest under a Ukrainian warrant.
There are many of such little reported power plays in Kiev with Zelensky moving more and more into a dictatorial role. Over time his position will become very lonely.
But in the east the battle continues and Ukraine keeps losing the war. The Telegram channel Intel Slava Z notes:
Prigozhin on the objectives of the actions of PMC "Wagner" in the Artemovsk region.
“The task of taking Bakhmut is to destroy the Ukrainian army in the vicinity of the city and prevent any offensive actions in any direction of the front. All of their combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are sent to Bakhmut. And PMC "Wagner" destroys them, opening up operational opportunities in other areas"
This confirms my previous observation:
I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.
There are still Pentagon officials who deny the real situation:
Russian forces took control of the city of Bakhmut almost a year ago after Moscow opened a phase of the war that focused on territories in the Donbas, the far eastern corner of Ukraine comprised of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.
Recent successes by Ukrainian fighters in the Bakhmut area have prompted Moscow to send in reinforcements, said the senior U.S. military official who spoke on condition of anonymity. U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said Ukrainian troops are presently in control of Bakhmut, though Moscow claimed this week that its forces have taken control of a nearby salt-mining town, Soledar.
“Ukraine forces continue to successfully hold and defend Bakhmut,” the U.S. military official said, adding the new Russian troops are being “rushed” to the battlefield “ill trained” and “ill equipped.”
To read such nonsense in the Stars and Stripes, a newspaper for the U.S. military, is quite revealing. Can these people even read a map?
Bakhmut has never been under the Russian forces control. This was the situation near Bakhmut 6 months ago. The Russian held territory is red.
This is the current situation around Bakhmut. The city is nearly encircled. All major roads leading in and out are under Russian artillery control.
It is a big meat grinder. The German intelligence service BND says that the Ukrainian forces lose hundreds of soldiers per day in that city alone. The Russian defense ministry does not report on Bakhmut as that is Wagner's territory. But it daily reports if additional hundreds of losses on the Ukrainian side.
In a useless attempt to stop the steady drain of Ukrainian forces the 'west' is moving additional weapons into Ukraine. The U.S. wants to unlock the transfer of tanks by other countries to Ukraine by delivering parts of its own tank reserves:
The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.
The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.
The White House declined to comment.
...
The shift in the U.S. position follows a call on Jan. 17 between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which Mr. Biden agreed to look into providing the Abrams tanks against the judgment of the Pentagon. A senior German official said that the issue had been the subject of intense negotiation between Washington and Berlin for more than a week and appeared to be on the way to resolution.
...
Previously, the Pentagon had ruled out providing the tanks to Ukraine, saying they were too complicated for the Ukrainians to maintain and operate. But White House and State Department officials were described as being more open to providing Abrams to break the diplomatic logjam holding up Leopard deliveries.
U.S. Joint Chiefs Chair Milley and Defense Secretary Austin have been against any tank delivery. They are afraid of the consequences of this steady mission creep. The Biden administration steadily blows through each of its own red lines. Biden had started out by declaring that the U.S. would only deliver defensive weapons. Then came HIMARS and other longer range weapons that hit targets in Russia. Delivering tanks was a red line. What will come next? Fighter planes that have no chance to defeat superior Russian air defenses?
They military are not alone in their fear. The Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands of its Doomsday Clock:
The Clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight—the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.
Biden is in a bind. He started a war that he is not allowed to lose because losing in Ukraine will come with the loss of U.S. financial hegemony:
The Biden Team cannot withdraw its fantastical narrative of Russia’s imminent humiliation; they have bet the House on it. Yet it has become an existential issue for the U.S. precisely because of this egregious initial miscalculation that has been subsequently levered-up into a preposterous narrative of a floundering, at any moment ‘collapsing’ Russia.
...
This evolving New Order existentially threatens dollar hegemony – the U.S. created its hegemony through demanding that oil (and other commodities) be priced in dollars, and by facilitating a frenetic financialisation of asset markets in the U.S. It is this demand for dollars which alone has allowed the U.S. to fund its government deficit (and its defence budget) for nothing.
...
Team Biden thus has painted the U.S. into a tight Ukraine ‘corner’. But at this stage – realistically – what can the White House do? It cannot withdraw the narrative of Russia’s ‘coming humiliation’ and defeat. They cannot let the narrative go because it has become an existential component to save what it can of the ‘Ponzi’. To admit that Russia ‘has won’ would be akin to saying that the ‘Ponzi’ will have to ‘close the fund’ to further withdrawals (just as Nixon did in 1971, when he shut withdrawals from the Gold window).
Commentator Yves Smith has provocatively argued, ‘What if Russia decisively wins – yet the western press is directed to not notice?’ Presumably, in such a situation, the economic confrontation between the West and New Global Order states must escalate into a wider, longer war.
And escalating it is. With ever increasing speed.
---
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Posted by b on January 24, 2023 at 17:05 UTC | Permalink
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/01/u ... .html#more
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On the increase in the French military budget
January 24, 20:16
On the increase in the French military budget
French President Emmanuel Macron delivered an address to the army last Friday at the Mont-de-Marsan air base.
The main message was the president's intention to increase ) military budget for 2024-2030 from 295 to 413 billion euros.
It is expected that the plan to finance the French army will be presented in the spring as part of the "Law on military programming".
Rybar's team managed to communicate with one of the parliamentarians who are directly involved in the development of the law. He shared so far confidential budget provisions.
President Macron no longer sees the economic point of maintaining a French military presence in Africa, given the increased activity of Russia, Turkey, China and local nationalist movements.
France is considering the possibility of a gradual complete withdrawal not only from the Sahel, but also from other regions of French influence.
The new French foreign policy in Africa will no longer include a military component - only the maintenance of embassies and consulates, as well as the promotion of economic interests.
The budget will be largely reallocated in favor of the Air Force and air reconnaissance, as well as in favor of the nuclear program and the Navy.
The military intelligence budget is planned to be increased by 60%.
CBO analysis and failing preparation ( https://t.me/rybar/42256) for the ORION military exercises convinced the French leadership that the national army was not ready for large-scale military conflicts. In this regard, Paris is betting on nuclear deterrence.
The situation with the combat readiness of the French troops was also significantly aggravated by assistance to Ukraine - some units lost ( https://t.me/rybar/36022 ) a significant part of the military equipment required by the state.
Given that the French army is increasingly relying ( https://t.me/rybar/41507 ) on private contractors for air and space intelligence, it is not hard to guess that the main beneficiaries of the revision of the military budget will be the intelligence community and PMCs.
In the context of the reduction in funding for the ground forces, the functions of operational activities in the conflict zone will also gradually go to private traders.
https://t.me/rybar/42953 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8124236.html
Google Translator
That final bit of speculation is interesting. The obvious motivation for all the (capitalist) players is to keep down the number of body-bags returned home under government auspices. No real concern for the lives of their citizens rather concern for political stability,"ain't no time to be fighting a war on the home front too.' The contractors will hire many foreign nationals and can do much to obfuscate their losses with a bit of lax government oversight. Good for 'stability' and recruitment too.
The use of mercenaries is as about old as history. The Thirty Years war was fought almost entirely with mercenaries, with prominent generals acting as contractors. The historically bad outcome of that conflict put mercs in bad light, though of course ultimate responsibility belongs to the politicians. The rise of the nation state largely put a end to the practice by states, though not by corporations. Plenty of willing cannon fodder to be found in the new masses of 'patriots' created by the 'Age of Revolutions'.
As the US Army found in Vietnam armies of conscripts are unsuitable for overseas occupations, especially as causalities mount. So they went to the all volunteer army("cause those folks have no room to complain"...) but as the army advertised itself as a job training program there developed a paucity of grunts.(It's also been noted that people of color shy away from that role, statistically. How about that...the incidence of racist atrocities committed by US forces against other than white people is a constant.) Enter the mercenary.
Citizens of nominal democracies these days are not keen on dying or being maimed for non-existential reasons. And to be honest urbanites might not be as suitable for military service as persons accustomed to more physical lifestyles. The use of 'savage'proxies(a gross generality)also has precedent in that usual role model, the Roman Empire. Ostrogoths, ISIS, no great difference. And the heads of these so-called Islamic terrorist organization are actually contractors in the Thirty Years War mode. The paymaster these days US/NATO not the Hapsburgs but little difference.
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“Several Ukrainian Officials Are Fired as Corruption Scandal Balloons”
This is the headline in the latest online edition of The New York Times.
The article goes on to say:
“The dismissals included governors of several regions in the biggest upheaval in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government since the Russian invasion began.”
For its part, ‘The Financial Tiimes’ also has a front page report on the same entitled “Ukraine officials resign as Volodymyr Zelensky moves to ease corruption concerns.” The subtitle goes on to inform us: “Deputy ministers, officials and regional governors among those replaced as president seeks to clean up public life.”
So what is going on?
To their credit, the FT do offer an explanation for the purge, telling us that “President Volodymyr Zelenskyy..sought to defuse concerns over corruption at a time when he is requesting more western weaponry to repel Russian forces.” We are told the resignations and firings are all about “misuse of state and military funds.”
One of the officials forced out was publicly accused of concluding deals to procure food supplies to the army at inflated prices. Can you imagine that? Others were said to have traveled abroad at the expense of foreign donors. Gosh!
The FT concludes its article with an upbeat comment from the President of the Kyiv School of Economics: “it’s a good sign that the system responded to public pressure. It’s also a sign that democracy here works.”
So much for mainstream spin. Now I take pleasure in offering another analysis of what is going on which does not differ from the link of causality buried in the FT article but takes it several steps further into how the real world works.
My source for this alternative news is the Russian talk show “Time Will Tell (Vremy Pokazhet) which by chance I found when flipping channels on the statellite television in my hotel located on the remote and colonial ambiance island La Digue in the Seychelles.
For a more precise geographical positioning, I am now 500 meters from the Plantation House build in 1818, now a national museum-park, where the soft porn movie “Return of Emmanuel” was filmed, and where some Bacardi rum adverts were also filmed. Population of the island – 2,613. Sole industry – tourism.
This is not a bad place to sit out a full-blown NATO -Russia war. Maybe the Russian tourists here know something. In any case my hotel subscribes to Russia’s state broadcaster Pervy Kanal, the hosts to “Time Will Tell.”
This particular show I know well as a legitimate competitor to the ” Evening with Solovyov” programs that I have cited in my reporting of the past couple of years. The European ban on Russian satellite television has prevented me from following Pervy Kanal. But here we are together again on La Digue.
Today’s show dealt with a number of issues, starting with Polish ambitions to seize the Lvov region of Western Ukraine and to establish ‘colonial control’ over a rump state of Ukraine reaching as far east as the Dnepr. The presenter also informed the audience about the request Polish officials are now quietly passing along to the European Union that they be reimbursed for the cost of the Leopard tanks that Warsaw is about to gift to Kiev.
Then the show moved on to the issue before us, the purge of high officials in the Zelensky regime. The presenter gave us the missing link on a platter, a link that our Western media giants just seem to have overlooked: namely the connection between the ongoing purge and the visit of CIA director William Burns to Kiev last week for talks with Zelensky.
That unexpected visit had been described on CNN as serving to reassure Zelensky of steadfast U.S. support, as well as to share U.S. intelligence on likely Russian military action in the foreseeable future. Of course, there are other U.S. officials who could do this as well or better than Burns, particularly those wearing military uniforms.How much more logical that a CIA Director would be briefing Zelensky on what he must do to clean the stables, to publicly throw out his corrupt buddies if he is to have any chance of getting further funding from the now Republican controlled House. It would not be inappropriate to call this ‘regime change’.
Panelists on the talk show identified leading members of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party who have been forced from office as folks who were aligned with Boris Johnson. Their replacements are expected to be people more closely aligned with the United States.
So much for democracy at work in Ukraine, Messrs “Financial Times..”
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2023
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2023/01/24/ ... -balloons/
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The economics of war - how much does it cost to train Ukrainians to fight on the Abrams
January 24, 23:15
The economics of war - how much does it cost to train Ukrainians to fight on the Abrams
Let's say right away: for a number of completely objective reasons, it is impossible to accurately assess either the cost of a tank or the cost of training crews. The most important of them is that the accounting of the modern army is incredibly complex. In 2021, the average American soldier cost the US $136,000 a year, a small cost by the standards of the country.
How much the equipment removed from storage costs is a rather philosophical question, and the answer to it depends on the point of view. A similar story is with staff training - we doubt that insurance and a relative support program will be included in this amount. In the case of training Ukrainian tank crews, it is even difficult to predict the program: for an American tank crew member, it takes 22 weeks (about six months), for a repairman - about 13 weeks (3 months), and equipment for various combat vehicle systems - from 22 to 34 weeks. The commander needs more time, but there are huge doubts that the Ukrainians will be trained for so long.
According to rough estimates, a two-month course for one Ukrainian tanker will cost $50,000-200,000, including live firing and work with equipment and simulators. The training of 100 crews will cost $100 million. But maybe more - we don't know how many combat firing and operating hours are included, and one real shot from a cannon costs from $1 to $10 thousand, depending on the projectile. So even $100 million can easily turn into a billion, especially considering the retraining of technical staff.
The supply of modern combat vehicles, at least from storage, is a serious expense. Even for fantastically wealthy America, an extra couple of billion in aid is not as easy as it sounds. And we are not talking about aviation - that's where every plane really becomes golden.
https://t.me/suverennews/855 - zinc
PS. Regarding the question raised of the cost of training Ukrainian cannon fodder to drive American tanks. Here it is worth understanding the following things.
1. Training is carried out at the expense of already allocated funds.
2. The money goes to Pentagon defense contractors, it doesn't go to Ukraine.
3. Any corruption component remains an internal affair of the American public-private defense partnership.
4. From the point of view of the total costs of the war in Ukraine, the cost of training cannon fodder is insignificant.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8124779.html
Of course, 'money is no object'....But time is, and a two month course is probably just enough to get that tanker killed. Using experienced Ukrainian personnel won't help much as US and Soviet design and operation are strikingly different.
On the situation around Artemovsk
January 24, 21:56
About talk about the operational environment of Artemovsk.
It is still too early to talk about the operational environment of the Artemov group. After taking Kleshcheevka and advancing towards Krasnoe, our heavy artillery began to cover the Chasov Yar - Artemovsk road going through Krasnoe, but it is still possible to drive along the road, although now this is fraught with the risk of coverage. Nevertheless, this is not yet complete fire control, which can be established in the event of successful assault operations in Krasny and further advance to Chasov Yar.
In the case of another road that goes to Artemovsk from the same Chasov Yar, but to the north, it is not yet actively covered by our artillery and is relatively safe for traffic. Now our troops are fighting street battles in Krasnaya Gora and today they have caught hold of Paraskoveevka, establishing control over which will allow them to bring up artillery and begin to cover this road from the northwest, increasing the pressure of assault groups and DRGs in the direction of this road.
Thus, the operational encirclement of the Artemovskaya grouping can be the result of successful operations in these two areas, and even now our troops have come close enough to solving these problems. The enemy command understands this, and even more so understands the Pentagon, therefore, in the past few days, talk has intensified about the need to retreat from Artemovsk, which the Americans are already talking about as inevitable, trying to sweeten the pill of defeat with talk about the unimportance of Artemovsk.
Broadcast of hostilities in Ukraine as usual in the telegram https://t.me/boris_rozhin - if you are interested, subscribe
PS. And yes, we will see Western tanks on the battlefields in the spring. It was pretty expected.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8124470.html
Google Translator
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Ukraine War’s First Anniversary and Beyond
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JANUARY 24, 2023
M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Russian T-90M Proryv (Breakthrough) main battle tank in action on the Donbass front lines recently
The first anniversary of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine falls on February 24. The Russian strategy of attrition war has not yet produced the desired political outcome but has been a success nonetheless.
The delusional “westernist” notions of the Moscow elite that Russia can be a dialogue partner of the West have dissipated thoroughly, with ex-German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s stunning disclosure recently that the West’s negotiations with Russia regarding the Minsk Agreement were an “attempt to give Ukraine time” and that Kiev had used it “to become stronger.”
Moscow reacted with bitterness and a sense of humiliation that the Russian ruling elite were taken for a ride. This awareness impacts the Ukraine conflict as it enters the second year. Thus, the annexation of the four regions of Ukraine — Donetsk and Lugansk [Donbass], Zaporozhye, Kherson oblasts — and Crimea, accounting for around one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, is a fait accompli now, and Kiev’s recognition of it is a pre-requisite for any future peace talks.
Moscow’s initial optimism in February-March that “the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting” (Sun Tzu) has also given way to the realism that the Biden Administration will not allow the war to end anytime soon until Russia is bled white and weakened. This led to the Russian withdrawal from Kharkhov and Kherson regions with a view to create a well-fortified defence line and dig in.
Putin finally accepted the army commanders’ demand for a partial mobilisation. The ensuing big deployment in Ukraine, alongside the build-up in Belarus, has put Russia for the first time in a commanding position militarily as the war enters the second year.
The Kremlin has put necessary mechanisms in place to galvanise the defence industry and the economy to meet the needs of the military operations in Ukraine. From a long-term perspective, one historic outcome of the conflict is going to be Russia’s emergence as an unassailable military power that draws comparison with the Soviet Red Army, which the West will never again dare to confront. This is yet to sink in.
Today, the Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov stated in an extraordinary interview with the journal Argumenti i Fakti that the newly approved Armed Forces development plan will guarantee the protection of Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and “create conditions for progress in the country’s social and economic development.
Under the plan approved by Putin, the Moscow and the Leningrad military districts will be created, three motorised rifle divisions will be formed in the Kherson and the Zaporozhye oblasts (that have been annexed in September) and an army corps will be built in the northwestern region of Karelia bordering Finland.
The internal western assessment is that the war is going badly for Ukraine. Spiegel reported last week that Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) “informed security politicians of the Bundestag in a secret meeting this week that the Ukrainian army is currently losing a three-digit number of soldiers every day in battles.”
The BND told the German MPs that it is particularly “alarmed by the high losses of the Ukrainian army in the battle for the strategically important city of Bakhmut” (in Donetsk) and warned that “the Russians’ capture of Bakhmut would have significant consequences, as it would allow Russia to make further forays into the interior of the country.”
Again, a Reuters report quoted a senior Biden Administration official who was speaking to a small group of reporters in Washington on Friday that there is “a high possibility” that the Russians will push the Ukrainians out of Bakhmut, which western military experts have called the “lynchpin” of the entire Ukrainian defence line in Donbass.
On the other hand, the Biden Administration is hoping to buy time till spring to revamp the pulverised Ukrainian military and equip it with advanced weaponry. The old stocks of Soviet-era weaponry have been exhausted and future supplies to Ukraine will have to be from hardware in service with NATO countries. That is easier said than done, and western defence industry will need time to restart production.
All the bravado that Kiev is preparing for an offensive to drive the Russians out of Ukraine has vanished. The signs are that a Russian offensive may have begun on the southern front, which is steadily advancing toward Zaporozhye city, a major industrial hub in Ukraine.
This offensive would have profound implications. Capture of the remaining 25% of the territory in Zaporozhye oblast, which is still under Kiev’s control, will make the land bridge between Crimea and the Russian hinterland impregnable to Ukrainian counter-offensive as well as strengthen the Russian control of the Azov Sea ports (which connect the Caspian Sea with the Black Sea and the Volga–Don Shipping Canal leading to St.Petersburg), apart from dramatically weakening the entire Ukrainian military deployment in Donbass and in the steppes on the eastern side of Dnieper River.
The big picture, therefore, as the war enters the second year is that the West is working feverishly on plans, with the Biden Administration leading from the rear, to deliver heavy armour to the Ukrainian military by spring, including German Leopard tanks. If that happens, Russia is sure to retaliate with strikes on supply routes and warehouses in western Ukraine.
On Thursday, Dmitry Medvedev, the outspoken former Russian president who is close to Putin and serves as deputy chairman of the powerful security council, explicitly warned, “Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends.”
However, there are mitigating factors. First, the results of Davos 2023 and the meeting of NATO defence ministers in Ramstein on Friday as well as the inter-party disputes in Washington over the budget and the US debt ceiling, etc. are pushing the Biden Administration to make a choice between a risky continuation of confrontation with Russia or slowing down the gravy train running through Ukraine, fixing their profits with the withdrawal from the project. For the Zelensky regime, this will mean that the good things in life may be coming to an end.
Last week, the influential Russian daily Izvestia featured an incisive essay authored by Viktor Medvedchuk, the veteran Ukrainian MP and oligarch-politician (based in Moscow currently) to the effect that “the process has started” in the unraveling of the regime in Kiev.
Medvedchuk reminds us of “an interesting trend” in Ukrainian politics. President Poroshenko had promised peace with Russia in one week but once in power did not fulfil the Minsk agreements, and “miserably lost the next election.” He was replaced by Vladimir Zelensky, who also promised a settlement with Russia in Donbass, but instead became “the personification of war. That is, the Ukrainian people are promised peace, and then they are deceived.” The western press has shoved under the carpet the reality that Zelensky’s support base is small and there is a silent majority that pines for peace.
The death of interior minister Denys Monastyrsky, a longtime aide to Zelensky, and his first deputy Yevgeny Enin in a helicopter crash in Kiev week ago in mysterious circumstances raises eyebrows, since the Ukrainian neo-Nazi militias operate out of his ministry. Only a day earlier came the surprise development of the resignation of Zelensky’s top adviser Alexey Arestovich for allegedly casting aspersions on the Ukrainian military.
In TV interviews since then, Arestovich has been voicing his misgivings about the conduct of the war. Then, there has been the murder of Denis Kireev, who was an important participant in the March peace talks with Russia. A major personnel shakeup today, following corruption claims, involved a deputy prosecutor general, the deputy head of the president’s office, the deputy defence minister and five regional governors so far.
Over and above this fluidity in Kiev, there is the ‘X’ factor — US domestic politics as it approaches the 2024 election year. The Republicans are insisting on an auditing of the tens of billions of dollars spent on Ukraine — $110 billion in military aid alone — making the Biden Administration accountable. The CIA chief William Burns paid an unpublicised visit to Kiev, reportedly to transmit the message that US arms supplies beyond July may become problematic.
On the other hand, revelations are growing on President Biden’s handling of classified documents, which may include sensitive materials on Ukraine. These are early days, but the 13-hour FBI search of his personal residence in Delaware on Friday is generating new questions about White House transparency on the issue. New developments in the document scandal could cut into Biden’s support as he prepares to announce a reelection bid.
All things taken into account, therefore, one tends to agree with Medvedchuk’s prognosis that the Ukraine conflict, as it enters the second year, “will either grow further, spreading to Europe and other countries, or it will be localised and resolved.”
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/01/ ... nd-beyond/