Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V
Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V
Obstacles to ending the conflict
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/10/2024
Volodymyr Zelensky had pinned his hopes on this week, when he was to have the opportunity to present his Victory Plan to the heads of state and government of his main allies and suppliers, who would hear first-hand the list of weapons that Ukraine expects to receive from them in the coming months and the actions that each must take to meet Ukrainian demands. The Ukrainian president continues to insist in his media appearances that the war can and must end as soon as possible. Just yesterday, Zelensky said that “in October, November and December, we have a real opportunity to move the situation towards peace and long-term stability.” With Ukraine suffering in Kursk and retreating in Donbass and even in Kharkiv, where Russia is slowly approaching the Oskol River, from which it had to flee in the chaotic retreat of September 2022, its worst defeat in this war, the front does not call for optimism for Kiev. That is, however, the image of confidence that the Ukrainian leader wants to give, adding that “the situation on the battlefield gives us the opportunity to make this choice: a choice in favour of decisive action to end the war by 2025 at the latest.”
The military framework in which the conflict currently takes place leaves two possibilities for Ukraine to achieve, at least partially, the objectives it has set itself. No country wants to lose, or even draw, any war and Zelensky is no longer presenting his allies with a peace plan but one for victory, so that decisive action would have to be directed towards achieving that victory, something that can be achieved by way of an agreement or by the massive intensification of the war, starting, of course, by obtaining the long-awaited permission to attack targets in any territory of the Russian Federation using Western missiles that certain countries will also have to deliver - and in large quantities.
The Ukrainian president will not be able to present his plans to the Ramstein group this week as planned, as the consequences of Hurricane Milton have forced Joe Biden to remain in the United States and put on his most presidential appearance. The absence of the US president during an episode in which deaths have already been reported could represent a Katrina moment for the Democratic Party at a key phase of the election campaign, so the Biden administration has been forced to prioritize its domestic agenda over its foreign policy agenda. The meeting, in which Olaf Scholz hoped to meet with Joe Biden, Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron to outline the common strategy, has been postponed and, although everything indicates that it will take place soon, it has already been replaced by a lightning tour in which Volodymyr Zelensky has already visited Croatia, Italy, the United Kingdom and France. “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Thursday as part of a European tour aimed at gaining more Western support ahead of the US presidential election,” wrote France Presse yesterday , introducing the electoral key that is already marking Ukraine’s performance.
The two options for ending the war quickly – an agreement or an escalation – depend largely on the outcome of the US elections in the first week of November, and this is possibly one of the reasons why Zelensky is trying to keep his speech halfway. In the first phase of his trip, in Croatia, the Ukrainian president stated that the first point of his Victory Plan is NATO, which automatically makes any peace through an agreement unfeasible. In the second phase, in London, Zelensky confirmed once again that the Alliance is an integral part of this war, meeting not only with Prime Minister Starmer, but also with the newly appointed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The result of this meeting was, according to the British press, that the possibility of the United Kingdom sending small contingents of troops to train Ukrainian soldiers in the country is back on the table. According to several media outlets yesterday, the proposal is that they be based in western Ukraine, far from the front line, which would increase security. For Zelensky, any presence of NATO troops is a guarantee that the country will not be left to its own devices in the event of a possible defeat or loss of Western interest in the Ukrainian cause. But above all, it would mean crossing another red line for Ukraine: the official presence of foreign troops, perhaps the start of a campaign to extend this presence to include combat advisers, etc.
The option of escalating the war to force Russia to accept Ukrainian and Western dictates – for which Ukraine would need a massive increase in the supply of arms, ammunition and financing and a significant increase in the number of troops, both of which are unlikely and possibly unfeasible in the short term – is undoubtedly the favourite of Zelensky and his entourage, as it would force them to raise the stakes in search of a resolution that would involve less painful concessions than a negotiation in a position of weakness such as the current one. However, if the Republican candidate’s statements correspond to his intentions – something that has not always been the case in his case – they make an ironclad position in which Zelensky is seen as a war president who has become the main barrier to peace unfeasible. Hence, the Ukrainian leader habitually insists on the need to achieve peace (although each and every one of his recipes are really proposals for war or an absolutely impossible armed peace). This is the logic behind the news published yesterday by Italy’s Corriere della Sera , the third of the four countries that Zelensky has visited in the last 48 hours. The newspaper claims that, despite not being prepared to give up any part of the territory (something that would be too unpopular for any Ukrainian president), the possibility of a ceasefire on the current line of separation would remain open in exchange for “security guarantees from the United States on the model given by the Americans in Japan, South Korea or the Philippines.” In other words, freezing the war according to the current positions, not recognizing the front as a real border, not giving up the territory, moving towards NATO and having American troops (these are the security guarantees available, for example, to the Republic of Korea, which also hosts American nuclear weapons), a version of the Minsk scenario aggravated by the certainty that the Western military bloc would find itself at Russia’s doorstep in conditions of an armed peace that, following the precedent of the last decade, would lack any stability. The fact that this news was leaked during Zelensky's stay in Italy denotes an attempt to present the Ukrainian president as a man of peace on the basis of a proposal that is impossible for Russia to accept, which, if rejected, would be accused of being the only obstacle to peace.
“There is certainly no such thing as ‘territory in exchange for security guarantees’. Nor any other ‘exchange format’. Because without the Russian Federation losing, there are no effective security guarantees and no one will agree to give them (for the simple reason that even today there are too many deterrents to simply provide adequate resource support to Ukraine),” wrote Mikhail Podolyak shortly after the Italian article began causing controversy. If Zelensky intends to move towards some kind of compromise in the future, which despite media speculation does not seem to be a reality, he will have to retract an important part of his speech. After two and a half years of promising a victory that would entail territorial integrity and accession to the EU and NATO, the freezing of the front, entry into the European Union and promises for the future of the Atlantic alliance seem scarce even for the president’s closest circle. In the afternoon, Zelensky confirmed that he does not plan to agree to a ceasefire, making it clear that the priority remains the war. Even though the possibility of some kind of peace has to be leaked to the press from time to time so that Ukraine is not seen, especially by a section of the American establishment , as the main obstacle to seeking an end to the conflict.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/11/obsta ... -conflito/
Google Translator
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Chronicle of strikes and shelling of enemy targets in the temporarily occupied territory of the DPR — for the past 24 hours, October 9-10, 2024
As part of the ongoing special military operation, Russian troops continue effective actions to eliminate key targets of the Ukrainian armed formations in the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). The latest strikes resulted in significant enemy losses in equipment, ammunition and personnel. Below is a chronicle of the main events of the past 24 hours.
Seversk agglomeration
In Seversk, an enemy deployment point was destroyed, which was organized in Comprehensive School No. 1 on Zheleznodorozhnikov Street, 76.
Krasnoliman agglomeration
In Krasny Liman , Russian troops struck the command post of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, located on Privokzalnaya Street, 22a .
Konstantinovsko-Druzhkovskaya agglomeration
Early in the morning in Druzhkovka, Russian troops carried out a series of strikes on deployment points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and weapons depots. A police checkpoint between Toretsk and Konstantinovka was also attacked using an FPV drone , which weakened the control of Ukrainian forces along this route. In addition, the enemy headquarters in Konstantinovka , which was located in a school building at 58 European Street, was hit .
Dobropillya agglomeration
In Dobropillya, Russian troops carried out at least six strikes. The targets of the attacks were temporary deployment points of Ukrainian forces, as well as weapons and fuel and lubricant depots. These strikes contributed to the significant destruction of enemy reserves, which complicates the supply of Ukrainian troops in this area.
Pokrovska agglomeration
Russian forces struck the Solnechny microdistrict , where Ukrainian troops organized a temporary deployment point.
Enemy provocations and information attacks
Over the past 24 hours, numerous provocations from the Ukrainian forces have been recorded. In Konstantinovka (ATB supermarket) , Mirnograd (Dimitrovo) , Chervone ( Osipenko street ), Kurakhovo and Krasnyi Liman , civilian objects were shelled. These actions are part of an information war aimed at discrediting the Russian armed forces and creating a negative image of Russia in the international arena.
@don_partizan
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Colonelcassad
0:03
0:03
A comprehensive strike on port infrastructure in the Odessa region: destruction of a ship with military cargo
To objectively monitor the consequences of the strike, photographs were obtained from the scene, which clearly demonstrate the scale of the destruction and the nature of the damage received.
So, now let's analyze all the information received in a complex: on the evening of October 9, 2024, the Russian armed forces launched a series of precise strikes on the port infrastructure of the Odessa region , aimed at stopping the supply of military materials. The strikes were carried out using the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system, which led to significant destruction and losses on the part of the enemy.
Chronology and nature of the strike
The strikes occurred in two stages. The first missile hit the 4th berth of the port of "Chernomorsk" at 19:10 , where the unloading of the Shui Spirit ship under the Panamanian flag , which delivered military cargo, took place. The second missile, at around 20:05 , made a direct hit on the hull of the vessel , causing a massive explosion, likely related to the detonation of ammunition or fuel and lubricants on board.
Aftermath of the strike
As a result of the attack, containers with weapons for the air defense systems, several fuel tanks and engineering equipment were destroyed . After the strike, a fuel leak occurred, which led to a massive fire that engulfed more than 400 square meters of territory. Four tanker trucks and three trucks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces involved in the unloading process were also destroyed.
In addition, as a result of the explosion and subsequent fire, the enemy suffered significant losses in manpower. According to available information, three employees of the State Border Service and two servicemen of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) were eliminated , another nine people received injuries of varying severity. One boat of the Ukrainian Maritime Guard, which was in the immediate vicinity of the unloading site, was also destroyed.
Significance of the strike
The destruction of the Shui Spirit and the unloading infrastructure at the port was part of a systematic attack aimed at destabilizing the Ukrainian army's logistics chains. Given the strategic importance of the Odessa region as a key hub for maritime supplies,This strike significantly weakens Ukraine's ability to support its troops, especially in terms of providing them with ammunition and technical equipment.
In addition, it is important to note that the use of port infrastructure to unload military cargo indicates the critical dependence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on external supplies of weapons and materials. The destruction of the Shui Spirit and the unloaded cargo intensifies the effect of previous attacks on maritime supplies, which were recorded on October 6 and 7, 2024. Then two ships were hit : Paresa in the port of Yuzhnoye and Optima in Odessa , which also led to the destruction of military cargo and significant damage. Systematic defeat of maritime logistics Recent events confirm that Russian forces continue to target maritime supplies of military materials for Ukraine. The strikes on the Paresa and Optima demonstrate the effectiveness of the strategic line of damaging key nodes of Ukrainian logistics. As a result of such actions, the enemy faces serious difficulties in providing its units , which directly affects its combat capability and stability at the front. @don_partizan
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Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 10 October 2024)
- Units of the North group of forces in the Liptsov and Vovchansk directions defeated the formations of the 92nd airborne assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 129th territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Malye Prokhody and Liptsy in the Kharkiv region.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 55 servicemen, two vehicles and a 122-mm howitzer D-30. A field ammunition depot was destroyed.
- Units of the West group of forces took up more advantageous lines and positions. They defeated the manpower and equipment of the 4th tank, 66th, 116th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 104th territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Shchurovo, Torskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic, Izyumskoye and Kupyansk of the Kharkiv region.
The enemy's losses amounted to more than 430 servicemen, five vehicles, a Gvozdika self-propelled artillery unit, and two 122-mm D-30 howitzers. Two Anklav-N electronic warfare stations and three field ammunition depots were destroyed.
– Units of the Southern Group of Forces took up more advantageous positions and defeated formations of the 54th, 93rd Mechanized, 56th Motorized Infantry, and 10th Mountain Assault Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Zvanovka, Belaya Gora, and Maksimilyanovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The enemy lost up to 765 servicemen, five vehicles, a 155-mm M777 howitzer made in the USA, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and three 105-mm M119 guns made in the USA.
– Units of the Center group of forces continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 24th, 59th mechanized, 152nd infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 101st, 111th and 120th territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Vozdvizhenka, Aleksandro-Kalinovo, Valentinovka, Sukhaya Balka, Kalinovo and Selidovo of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The enemy's losses amounted to 490 servicemen, a US-made M-113 armored personnel carrier, two vehicles, a 152-mm D-20 gun, a 152-mm Giatsint gun and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
– Units of the "East" group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the manpower and equipment of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 102nd and 108th Territorial Defense Brigades in the areas of the settlements of Malinovka, Kopani in the Zaporizhia region and Dobrovolye in the Donetsk People's Republic.
The enemy lost up to 120 servicemen, eight vehicles, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery mount "Caesar" made in France and two 122-mm self-propelled artillery mounts "Gvozdika".
– Units of the "Dnepr" group of forcesThe 39th Coastal Defense Brigade and the 121st Territorial Defense Brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Sadovoe and Tokarevka in the Kherson region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 95 servicemen, two vehicles, a 155-mm M-777 howitzer made in the USA, a 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, a 152-mm D-20 gun, and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer. A field ammunition depot was destroyed.
– Operational-tactical aviation, attack unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops, and artillery of the troop groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed the following: an AN/MSQ-104 combat control cabin, an AN/MPQ-65 multifunctional radar station made in the USA, and two Patriot SAM launchers made in the USA, as well as enemy manpower and military equipment concentrations in the 131st area.
– Air defense systems shot down six US-made HIMARS rockets and 205 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles, including 96 outside the special military operation zone.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
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Kursk direction: Russian troops advance in Korenevsky district
October 10, 2024
Rybar
In Kursk Oblast, Russian troops went on the attack in several areas in Korenevsky and Sudzhansky districts . The advanced groups of Russian troops reached Zeleny Shlyakh by the end of the day , which allows us to claim that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have at least partially broken through their defenses.
In the Glushkovsky district, Russian troops are repelling enemy attacks south of Veseloye , trying to prevent Ukrainian formations from advancing to the 38N-052 highway leading to the district's administrative center. Despite problems in other areas, the enemy continues to attack here.
In the Korenevsky district, the Russian Armed Forces launched a series of attacks on Ukrainian Armed Forces positions. The advance armored group of Russian troops was spotted "chasing" an enemy tank northwest of Zeleny Shlyakh . The settlement is located just under five kilometers from the previously noted front line in the Lyubimovka area , while the armored group of the Russian Armed Forces itself was moving from the north.
Russian troops broke through the Ukrainian Armed Forces defense to the north, in the area of Kremyanoye , and effectively "cut off" the salient on the front that rested on Korenevo and Olgovka . Control over Zeleny Shlyakh will allow Russian troops to block the enemy's supply lines via the 38K-030 highway , which plays an important role in the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Footage of Russian Armed Forces equipment driving along the Korenevo-Sudzha highway towards Zeleny Shlyakh has also appeared online , which also confirms the success of the attack near Olgovka .
In the Sudzhansky district, Russian troops also went on the offensive in several sections of the front and achieved tactical successes. Thus, according to some reports, they liberated the settlement of Novaya Sorochina and are now advancing towards Malaya Lokna .
There are also reports of a deep breakthrough of Russian troops into the Ukrainian Armed Forces' line of defense in one of the areas, but it is still impossible to assess the scale of the advance, and rumors of reaching the northern outskirts of Sudzha seem overly optimistic.
At the same time, another use of the Inokhodets UAV was recorded to the west of the city , which may indicate preparations for an assault. There are reports from the field that Russian troops have also made significant advances in the Plekhovo area from the direction of Ulanka and Borki , but there are no more detailed details of the attack yet.
The success of the “double strike” of Russian troops in the Korenevsky district could lead to the encirclement of significant forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but before that moment there are still several settlements to be passed, which have been occupied and fortified by the enemy for quite some time.
https://rybar.ru/kurskoe-napravlenie-na ... om-rajone/
Google Translator
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Mobilization: death, escape, corruption
Another death at a mobilization office. US congressmen demand mobilization of the youth. 6 million dollars in cash found at corrupt doctor family's house - member of Zelensky's party
Events in Ukraine
Oct 10, 2024
Back in 2021, I was on a train to the western border of Ukraine, travelling through the Carpathian mountains. Between enjoying the bucolic landscapes and occasional forlorn statues honoring various unsavory figures from the 1940s, I struck up conversation with a local in his 40s.
Local villagers clearly created this charming statue of ‘a Ukrainian Partisan fighter bidding farewell to his wife’. I noticed it while hiking in a small village in the Carpathians, and managed to find it on google maps. Of course, it became less enchanting when you find out what the UPA did in the 1940s
He spoke in a very heavily accented Ukrainian - there are many in the Carpathian region who even claim to form a separate ethnicity, and speak a separate language - Rusyn. This part of Ukraine first became part of a unified Ukrainian state in 1945, and Rusyn activists draw attention to their forced Ukrainization in Soviet Ukraine, which embraced a ‘proletarian Ukrainian patriotism’ to combat ‘bourgeois Ukrainian nationalism’. Anyway, historical segue over.
He told me his destination - the Czech Republic. There, he would work as a construction worker with other Ukrainians. ‘You have to, those in charge, Poroshenko, Zelensky, everyone, they’ve stolen everything there is’. He told me about the car factories in his Carpathian border city of Mukachevo - sweatshops working for Austrian companies. Eventually I got off at my stop for a mountain hike, and he continued on his way to the border.
On September 25, the pro-western publication Suspilne put out a story about the fate of a man quite similar to the one I chatted back in that train.
On September 4, 53 year-old Serhiy Kanalosh from the small Carpathian city of Svalyava died on his fourth day at the Mukachevo regional mobilization office (TSK).
Svalyava
According to the TSK, he fell ill during transportation and then had a fatal stroke in hospital. Serhiy’s widow, Olha Tanalosha, has a different story:
On August 28, he was taken to the military recruitment office. He went there uninjured and without bruises. I immediately went to see him. We were allowed to meet, but only through a fence. He was fine. I didn't see any injuries on August 30 or 31. He kept repeating that they were preparing documents to send him home. For three days I waited for us to go home, but it never happened
Olha told Suspilne that she noticed signs of beating on her husband’s third day at the TSK. Serhiy also told her he had been beaten during a brief meeting. Olha told Suspilne:
On Sunday, September 1, I went to see him and saw that he was badly beaten and limping, with a broken nose and a bruise under his right eye. He was taken away, and the same military officer who transported him explained to me that Serhiy was going to the police to file a report about who had beaten him. But things didn’t turn out that way...
The head doctor of the Svalyava City hospital confirmed that Serhiy was brought to the hospital unconscious and CT scans revealed intracranial hemorrhage.
Regional law enforcement claims it is looking into the matter. But there have been many such cases, especially in this desperately poor part of the country. And the TSK hardly feels threatened - it publicly sticks to its standard story in such cases, that they had nothing to do with Serhiy’s death. Olha also claims that her late husband was medically unfit for service - not that this has ever stopped the mobilization officers.
What struck me most from the video interviewing Olha was where she laid out her late husband’s remains in her modest dwelling - ‘all I have left to remember him’:
An adidas tracksuit and old black shoes - Serhiy was dressed like the man I met. Like the man I talked to, Olha speaks in a very ‘Carpathian’ Ukrainian - so much so that the patriotic Suspilne subtitles her speech with the ‘correct’ Ukrainian (though honestly, it is easily understandable).
Serhiy also looks like the man I met, with the face of a man worn down by years of hard work. This is what 53 years looks like in Ukraine.
Younger, younger!
On October 4, parliamentarian Roman Kostenko once again called on the government to begin mobilizing men aged 20 years and older. Kostenko, secretary of the parliamentary security and defense committee, stated the following in a TV interview:
“US congressmen call me all the time and say
"We give you weapons, and you say you don't have enough people. How is it that you don't conscript people under 25? How does that even work?"
"It's hard for me to answer, I don't know why,"
(Paywall with free trial)
https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... corruption
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A Forbes Contributor Fears That A Ceasefire Will Lead To A Pro-Russian Fascist Coup In Ukraine
Andrew Korybko
Oct 11, 2024
Most Westerners already know that Ukrainian nationalists fiercely hate Russia so they’re unlikely to fall for the fantasy that he’s peddling to scare them away from supporting a ceasefire.
Forbes contributor Melik Kaylan, who’s described by that outlet as having covered global geostrategic conflicts for three decades, published a highly speculative piece last week about “Moscow’s Hidden Plans For Exploiting A Ceasefire With Ukraine”. He predicts that “ultra-nationalist elements of the army (will) revolt and stage a coup against Zelensky for giving away Donbas and Crimea” if there’s a ceasefire, after which they’ll align with Russia due to being subjected to its propaganda and aliened by the West.
According to Kaylan, versions of this approach have been employed by Russia in the past in Georgia and Armenia, the first by supposedly meddling in its 2013 elections to get conservative-nationalists elected and the second after pro-Russian veterans of the original Karabakh War came to power. These are imperfect comparisons though since neither had a military coup nor were the nationalist who came to rule those countries driven by anti-Russian sentiment like is the case with most Ukrainian nationalists.
While there do indeed still exist some representatives of that ideology’s moderate school, in the sense of those who are proud of the regional identity that’s formed around their lands over the centuries but aren’t obsessed with hating Russia, the radicals still far outnumber them. It’s therefore unrealistic to imagine that there are enough moderates in the army to attempt a coup, that they wouldn’t be stopped by the radicals, and then their new regime will successfully repair ties with Russia.
What’s much more likely is that the radicals among them might attempt a coup if there’s a ceasefire, perhaps with the support of the SBU, though it wouldn’t be for pro-Russian purposes but to perpetuate the conflict that they’re doomed to lose anyhow in order to become “martyrs” for their cause. Even if that doesn’t unfold or fails, there’s no way that they’d sit back and let moderates take over the armed forces and then repair ties with Russia. They’d either rise up on their own or be ordered to by the US.
By seeding the false narrative that a ceasefire could lead to a pro-Russian coup, however, Kaylan is trying to scare the Western public away from embracing this scenario that’s increasingly being discussed. He’s hoping that Forbes’ perceived authority will reduce the chances that they’d question his words, but most Westerners already know that Ukrainian nationalists fiercely hate Russia. They remember Russia calling them Nazis and then their own governments defending them as “patriotic freedom fighters”.
Nobody will therefore be fooled by what he wrote, but it’s also possible that these weren’t solely his own ideas and that he was instead tasked by hawkish members of America’s permanent military, intelligence, and/or diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) with seeding this on their behalf. If that’s the case, then media figures might soon start talking about this too, all with the same intent no matter how ridiculous their forecast sounds to friends and foes alike.
Conspicuously absent from his prediction is any reference to the hundreds of billions of dollars that the West gave Ukraine, which bought them lots of influence within the Ukrainian “deep state”, thus raising questions about why their proxies wouldn’t stop a pro-Russian fascist military coup. The more that one thinks about it, the less that Kaylan’s fears make any sense, which exposes him as a propagandist whose only purpose is to fearmonger about the ceasefire scenario that more Westerners are now supporting.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/a-forbes ... ars-that-a
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Russian troops have begun the second phase of an active counteroffensive in the Kursk region
Mash: Russian Armed Forces have begun the second phase of an active counteroffensive in the Kursk region
Photo: Sergey Bobylev / RIA Novosti
The Russian Armed Forces have begun the second phase of an active counteroffensive in the Kursk region, writes the Telegram channel Mash.
According to the channel, Russian military personnel have already taken control of the village of Lyubimovka and the Sudzha-Korenevo road, which Ukrainian troops used to supply their units.
As stated in the publication, the majority of the military of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the Kursk border area are leaving their positions and fleeing towards Ukraine.
At that time, Russian paratroopers took the village of Zeleny Shlyakh without a fight, which the Ukrainian military had captured on the first day of the invasion of the Kursk region and attacked civilian settlements from there. The Russian Armed Forces also took control of Nizhny Klin , Mash reports, citing military bloggers.
Along with this, the channel reports that during the liberation of the Kursk border area by Russian troops, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost a large number of their soldiers.
Earlier, military blogger Yuriy Podolyaka reported that Russian troops had begun to "break through along the entire front" in the Kursk region. According to him, Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters in the village of Lyubimovka were cut off from the rest of the enemy formations.
https://lenta.ru/news/2024/10/10/rossiy ... 72252e7b64
Google Translator
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/10/2024
Volodymyr Zelensky had pinned his hopes on this week, when he was to have the opportunity to present his Victory Plan to the heads of state and government of his main allies and suppliers, who would hear first-hand the list of weapons that Ukraine expects to receive from them in the coming months and the actions that each must take to meet Ukrainian demands. The Ukrainian president continues to insist in his media appearances that the war can and must end as soon as possible. Just yesterday, Zelensky said that “in October, November and December, we have a real opportunity to move the situation towards peace and long-term stability.” With Ukraine suffering in Kursk and retreating in Donbass and even in Kharkiv, where Russia is slowly approaching the Oskol River, from which it had to flee in the chaotic retreat of September 2022, its worst defeat in this war, the front does not call for optimism for Kiev. That is, however, the image of confidence that the Ukrainian leader wants to give, adding that “the situation on the battlefield gives us the opportunity to make this choice: a choice in favour of decisive action to end the war by 2025 at the latest.”
The military framework in which the conflict currently takes place leaves two possibilities for Ukraine to achieve, at least partially, the objectives it has set itself. No country wants to lose, or even draw, any war and Zelensky is no longer presenting his allies with a peace plan but one for victory, so that decisive action would have to be directed towards achieving that victory, something that can be achieved by way of an agreement or by the massive intensification of the war, starting, of course, by obtaining the long-awaited permission to attack targets in any territory of the Russian Federation using Western missiles that certain countries will also have to deliver - and in large quantities.
The Ukrainian president will not be able to present his plans to the Ramstein group this week as planned, as the consequences of Hurricane Milton have forced Joe Biden to remain in the United States and put on his most presidential appearance. The absence of the US president during an episode in which deaths have already been reported could represent a Katrina moment for the Democratic Party at a key phase of the election campaign, so the Biden administration has been forced to prioritize its domestic agenda over its foreign policy agenda. The meeting, in which Olaf Scholz hoped to meet with Joe Biden, Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron to outline the common strategy, has been postponed and, although everything indicates that it will take place soon, it has already been replaced by a lightning tour in which Volodymyr Zelensky has already visited Croatia, Italy, the United Kingdom and France. “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Thursday as part of a European tour aimed at gaining more Western support ahead of the US presidential election,” wrote France Presse yesterday , introducing the electoral key that is already marking Ukraine’s performance.
The two options for ending the war quickly – an agreement or an escalation – depend largely on the outcome of the US elections in the first week of November, and this is possibly one of the reasons why Zelensky is trying to keep his speech halfway. In the first phase of his trip, in Croatia, the Ukrainian president stated that the first point of his Victory Plan is NATO, which automatically makes any peace through an agreement unfeasible. In the second phase, in London, Zelensky confirmed once again that the Alliance is an integral part of this war, meeting not only with Prime Minister Starmer, but also with the newly appointed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The result of this meeting was, according to the British press, that the possibility of the United Kingdom sending small contingents of troops to train Ukrainian soldiers in the country is back on the table. According to several media outlets yesterday, the proposal is that they be based in western Ukraine, far from the front line, which would increase security. For Zelensky, any presence of NATO troops is a guarantee that the country will not be left to its own devices in the event of a possible defeat or loss of Western interest in the Ukrainian cause. But above all, it would mean crossing another red line for Ukraine: the official presence of foreign troops, perhaps the start of a campaign to extend this presence to include combat advisers, etc.
The option of escalating the war to force Russia to accept Ukrainian and Western dictates – for which Ukraine would need a massive increase in the supply of arms, ammunition and financing and a significant increase in the number of troops, both of which are unlikely and possibly unfeasible in the short term – is undoubtedly the favourite of Zelensky and his entourage, as it would force them to raise the stakes in search of a resolution that would involve less painful concessions than a negotiation in a position of weakness such as the current one. However, if the Republican candidate’s statements correspond to his intentions – something that has not always been the case in his case – they make an ironclad position in which Zelensky is seen as a war president who has become the main barrier to peace unfeasible. Hence, the Ukrainian leader habitually insists on the need to achieve peace (although each and every one of his recipes are really proposals for war or an absolutely impossible armed peace). This is the logic behind the news published yesterday by Italy’s Corriere della Sera , the third of the four countries that Zelensky has visited in the last 48 hours. The newspaper claims that, despite not being prepared to give up any part of the territory (something that would be too unpopular for any Ukrainian president), the possibility of a ceasefire on the current line of separation would remain open in exchange for “security guarantees from the United States on the model given by the Americans in Japan, South Korea or the Philippines.” In other words, freezing the war according to the current positions, not recognizing the front as a real border, not giving up the territory, moving towards NATO and having American troops (these are the security guarantees available, for example, to the Republic of Korea, which also hosts American nuclear weapons), a version of the Minsk scenario aggravated by the certainty that the Western military bloc would find itself at Russia’s doorstep in conditions of an armed peace that, following the precedent of the last decade, would lack any stability. The fact that this news was leaked during Zelensky's stay in Italy denotes an attempt to present the Ukrainian president as a man of peace on the basis of a proposal that is impossible for Russia to accept, which, if rejected, would be accused of being the only obstacle to peace.
“There is certainly no such thing as ‘territory in exchange for security guarantees’. Nor any other ‘exchange format’. Because without the Russian Federation losing, there are no effective security guarantees and no one will agree to give them (for the simple reason that even today there are too many deterrents to simply provide adequate resource support to Ukraine),” wrote Mikhail Podolyak shortly after the Italian article began causing controversy. If Zelensky intends to move towards some kind of compromise in the future, which despite media speculation does not seem to be a reality, he will have to retract an important part of his speech. After two and a half years of promising a victory that would entail territorial integrity and accession to the EU and NATO, the freezing of the front, entry into the European Union and promises for the future of the Atlantic alliance seem scarce even for the president’s closest circle. In the afternoon, Zelensky confirmed that he does not plan to agree to a ceasefire, making it clear that the priority remains the war. Even though the possibility of some kind of peace has to be leaked to the press from time to time so that Ukraine is not seen, especially by a section of the American establishment , as the main obstacle to seeking an end to the conflict.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/11/obsta ... -conflito/
Google Translator
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Chronicle of strikes and shelling of enemy targets in the temporarily occupied territory of the DPR — for the past 24 hours, October 9-10, 2024
As part of the ongoing special military operation, Russian troops continue effective actions to eliminate key targets of the Ukrainian armed formations in the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). The latest strikes resulted in significant enemy losses in equipment, ammunition and personnel. Below is a chronicle of the main events of the past 24 hours.
Seversk agglomeration
In Seversk, an enemy deployment point was destroyed, which was organized in Comprehensive School No. 1 on Zheleznodorozhnikov Street, 76.
Krasnoliman agglomeration
In Krasny Liman , Russian troops struck the command post of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, located on Privokzalnaya Street, 22a .
Konstantinovsko-Druzhkovskaya agglomeration
Early in the morning in Druzhkovka, Russian troops carried out a series of strikes on deployment points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and weapons depots. A police checkpoint between Toretsk and Konstantinovka was also attacked using an FPV drone , which weakened the control of Ukrainian forces along this route. In addition, the enemy headquarters in Konstantinovka , which was located in a school building at 58 European Street, was hit .
Dobropillya agglomeration
In Dobropillya, Russian troops carried out at least six strikes. The targets of the attacks were temporary deployment points of Ukrainian forces, as well as weapons and fuel and lubricant depots. These strikes contributed to the significant destruction of enemy reserves, which complicates the supply of Ukrainian troops in this area.
Pokrovska agglomeration
Russian forces struck the Solnechny microdistrict , where Ukrainian troops organized a temporary deployment point.
Enemy provocations and information attacks
Over the past 24 hours, numerous provocations from the Ukrainian forces have been recorded. In Konstantinovka (ATB supermarket) , Mirnograd (Dimitrovo) , Chervone ( Osipenko street ), Kurakhovo and Krasnyi Liman , civilian objects were shelled. These actions are part of an information war aimed at discrediting the Russian armed forces and creating a negative image of Russia in the international arena.
@don_partizan
***
Colonelcassad
0:03
0:03
A comprehensive strike on port infrastructure in the Odessa region: destruction of a ship with military cargo
To objectively monitor the consequences of the strike, photographs were obtained from the scene, which clearly demonstrate the scale of the destruction and the nature of the damage received.
So, now let's analyze all the information received in a complex: on the evening of October 9, 2024, the Russian armed forces launched a series of precise strikes on the port infrastructure of the Odessa region , aimed at stopping the supply of military materials. The strikes were carried out using the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system, which led to significant destruction and losses on the part of the enemy.
Chronology and nature of the strike
The strikes occurred in two stages. The first missile hit the 4th berth of the port of "Chernomorsk" at 19:10 , where the unloading of the Shui Spirit ship under the Panamanian flag , which delivered military cargo, took place. The second missile, at around 20:05 , made a direct hit on the hull of the vessel , causing a massive explosion, likely related to the detonation of ammunition or fuel and lubricants on board.
Aftermath of the strike
As a result of the attack, containers with weapons for the air defense systems, several fuel tanks and engineering equipment were destroyed . After the strike, a fuel leak occurred, which led to a massive fire that engulfed more than 400 square meters of territory. Four tanker trucks and three trucks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces involved in the unloading process were also destroyed.
In addition, as a result of the explosion and subsequent fire, the enemy suffered significant losses in manpower. According to available information, three employees of the State Border Service and two servicemen of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) were eliminated , another nine people received injuries of varying severity. One boat of the Ukrainian Maritime Guard, which was in the immediate vicinity of the unloading site, was also destroyed.
Significance of the strike
The destruction of the Shui Spirit and the unloading infrastructure at the port was part of a systematic attack aimed at destabilizing the Ukrainian army's logistics chains. Given the strategic importance of the Odessa region as a key hub for maritime supplies,This strike significantly weakens Ukraine's ability to support its troops, especially in terms of providing them with ammunition and technical equipment.
In addition, it is important to note that the use of port infrastructure to unload military cargo indicates the critical dependence of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on external supplies of weapons and materials. The destruction of the Shui Spirit and the unloaded cargo intensifies the effect of previous attacks on maritime supplies, which were recorded on October 6 and 7, 2024. Then two ships were hit : Paresa in the port of Yuzhnoye and Optima in Odessa , which also led to the destruction of military cargo and significant damage. Systematic defeat of maritime logistics Recent events confirm that Russian forces continue to target maritime supplies of military materials for Ukraine. The strikes on the Paresa and Optima demonstrate the effectiveness of the strategic line of damaging key nodes of Ukrainian logistics. As a result of such actions, the enemy faces serious difficulties in providing its units , which directly affects its combat capability and stability at the front. @don_partizan
***
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 10 October 2024)
- Units of the North group of forces in the Liptsov and Vovchansk directions defeated the formations of the 92nd airborne assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 129th territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Malye Prokhody and Liptsy in the Kharkiv region.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 55 servicemen, two vehicles and a 122-mm howitzer D-30. A field ammunition depot was destroyed.
- Units of the West group of forces took up more advantageous lines and positions. They defeated the manpower and equipment of the 4th tank, 66th, 116th mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 104th territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Shchurovo, Torskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic, Izyumskoye and Kupyansk of the Kharkiv region.
The enemy's losses amounted to more than 430 servicemen, five vehicles, a Gvozdika self-propelled artillery unit, and two 122-mm D-30 howitzers. Two Anklav-N electronic warfare stations and three field ammunition depots were destroyed.
– Units of the Southern Group of Forces took up more advantageous positions and defeated formations of the 54th, 93rd Mechanized, 56th Motorized Infantry, and 10th Mountain Assault Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Zvanovka, Belaya Gora, and Maksimilyanovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The enemy lost up to 765 servicemen, five vehicles, a 155-mm M777 howitzer made in the USA, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and three 105-mm M119 guns made in the USA.
– Units of the Center group of forces continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 24th, 59th mechanized, 152nd infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 101st, 111th and 120th territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Vozdvizhenka, Aleksandro-Kalinovo, Valentinovka, Sukhaya Balka, Kalinovo and Selidovo of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The enemy's losses amounted to 490 servicemen, a US-made M-113 armored personnel carrier, two vehicles, a 152-mm D-20 gun, a 152-mm Giatsint gun and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
– Units of the "East" group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the manpower and equipment of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 102nd and 108th Territorial Defense Brigades in the areas of the settlements of Malinovka, Kopani in the Zaporizhia region and Dobrovolye in the Donetsk People's Republic.
The enemy lost up to 120 servicemen, eight vehicles, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery mount "Caesar" made in France and two 122-mm self-propelled artillery mounts "Gvozdika".
– Units of the "Dnepr" group of forcesThe 39th Coastal Defense Brigade and the 121st Territorial Defense Brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Sadovoe and Tokarevka in the Kherson region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 95 servicemen, two vehicles, a 155-mm M-777 howitzer made in the USA, a 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, a 152-mm D-20 gun, and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer. A field ammunition depot was destroyed.
– Operational-tactical aviation, attack unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops, and artillery of the troop groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed the following: an AN/MSQ-104 combat control cabin, an AN/MPQ-65 multifunctional radar station made in the USA, and two Patriot SAM launchers made in the USA, as well as enemy manpower and military equipment concentrations in the 131st area.
– Air defense systems shot down six US-made HIMARS rockets and 205 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles, including 96 outside the special military operation zone.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
*****
Kursk direction: Russian troops advance in Korenevsky district
October 10, 2024
Rybar
In Kursk Oblast, Russian troops went on the attack in several areas in Korenevsky and Sudzhansky districts . The advanced groups of Russian troops reached Zeleny Shlyakh by the end of the day , which allows us to claim that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have at least partially broken through their defenses.
In the Glushkovsky district, Russian troops are repelling enemy attacks south of Veseloye , trying to prevent Ukrainian formations from advancing to the 38N-052 highway leading to the district's administrative center. Despite problems in other areas, the enemy continues to attack here.
In the Korenevsky district, the Russian Armed Forces launched a series of attacks on Ukrainian Armed Forces positions. The advance armored group of Russian troops was spotted "chasing" an enemy tank northwest of Zeleny Shlyakh . The settlement is located just under five kilometers from the previously noted front line in the Lyubimovka area , while the armored group of the Russian Armed Forces itself was moving from the north.
Russian troops broke through the Ukrainian Armed Forces defense to the north, in the area of Kremyanoye , and effectively "cut off" the salient on the front that rested on Korenevo and Olgovka . Control over Zeleny Shlyakh will allow Russian troops to block the enemy's supply lines via the 38K-030 highway , which plays an important role in the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Footage of Russian Armed Forces equipment driving along the Korenevo-Sudzha highway towards Zeleny Shlyakh has also appeared online , which also confirms the success of the attack near Olgovka .
In the Sudzhansky district, Russian troops also went on the offensive in several sections of the front and achieved tactical successes. Thus, according to some reports, they liberated the settlement of Novaya Sorochina and are now advancing towards Malaya Lokna .
There are also reports of a deep breakthrough of Russian troops into the Ukrainian Armed Forces' line of defense in one of the areas, but it is still impossible to assess the scale of the advance, and rumors of reaching the northern outskirts of Sudzha seem overly optimistic.
At the same time, another use of the Inokhodets UAV was recorded to the west of the city , which may indicate preparations for an assault. There are reports from the field that Russian troops have also made significant advances in the Plekhovo area from the direction of Ulanka and Borki , but there are no more detailed details of the attack yet.
The success of the “double strike” of Russian troops in the Korenevsky district could lead to the encirclement of significant forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but before that moment there are still several settlements to be passed, which have been occupied and fortified by the enemy for quite some time.
https://rybar.ru/kurskoe-napravlenie-na ... om-rajone/
Google Translator
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Mobilization: death, escape, corruption
Another death at a mobilization office. US congressmen demand mobilization of the youth. 6 million dollars in cash found at corrupt doctor family's house - member of Zelensky's party
Events in Ukraine
Oct 10, 2024
Back in 2021, I was on a train to the western border of Ukraine, travelling through the Carpathian mountains. Between enjoying the bucolic landscapes and occasional forlorn statues honoring various unsavory figures from the 1940s, I struck up conversation with a local in his 40s.
Local villagers clearly created this charming statue of ‘a Ukrainian Partisan fighter bidding farewell to his wife’. I noticed it while hiking in a small village in the Carpathians, and managed to find it on google maps. Of course, it became less enchanting when you find out what the UPA did in the 1940s
He spoke in a very heavily accented Ukrainian - there are many in the Carpathian region who even claim to form a separate ethnicity, and speak a separate language - Rusyn. This part of Ukraine first became part of a unified Ukrainian state in 1945, and Rusyn activists draw attention to their forced Ukrainization in Soviet Ukraine, which embraced a ‘proletarian Ukrainian patriotism’ to combat ‘bourgeois Ukrainian nationalism’. Anyway, historical segue over.
He told me his destination - the Czech Republic. There, he would work as a construction worker with other Ukrainians. ‘You have to, those in charge, Poroshenko, Zelensky, everyone, they’ve stolen everything there is’. He told me about the car factories in his Carpathian border city of Mukachevo - sweatshops working for Austrian companies. Eventually I got off at my stop for a mountain hike, and he continued on his way to the border.
On September 25, the pro-western publication Suspilne put out a story about the fate of a man quite similar to the one I chatted back in that train.
On September 4, 53 year-old Serhiy Kanalosh from the small Carpathian city of Svalyava died on his fourth day at the Mukachevo regional mobilization office (TSK).
Svalyava
According to the TSK, he fell ill during transportation and then had a fatal stroke in hospital. Serhiy’s widow, Olha Tanalosha, has a different story:
On August 28, he was taken to the military recruitment office. He went there uninjured and without bruises. I immediately went to see him. We were allowed to meet, but only through a fence. He was fine. I didn't see any injuries on August 30 or 31. He kept repeating that they were preparing documents to send him home. For three days I waited for us to go home, but it never happened
Olha told Suspilne that she noticed signs of beating on her husband’s third day at the TSK. Serhiy also told her he had been beaten during a brief meeting. Olha told Suspilne:
On Sunday, September 1, I went to see him and saw that he was badly beaten and limping, with a broken nose and a bruise under his right eye. He was taken away, and the same military officer who transported him explained to me that Serhiy was going to the police to file a report about who had beaten him. But things didn’t turn out that way...
The head doctor of the Svalyava City hospital confirmed that Serhiy was brought to the hospital unconscious and CT scans revealed intracranial hemorrhage.
Regional law enforcement claims it is looking into the matter. But there have been many such cases, especially in this desperately poor part of the country. And the TSK hardly feels threatened - it publicly sticks to its standard story in such cases, that they had nothing to do with Serhiy’s death. Olha also claims that her late husband was medically unfit for service - not that this has ever stopped the mobilization officers.
What struck me most from the video interviewing Olha was where she laid out her late husband’s remains in her modest dwelling - ‘all I have left to remember him’:
An adidas tracksuit and old black shoes - Serhiy was dressed like the man I met. Like the man I talked to, Olha speaks in a very ‘Carpathian’ Ukrainian - so much so that the patriotic Suspilne subtitles her speech with the ‘correct’ Ukrainian (though honestly, it is easily understandable).
Serhiy also looks like the man I met, with the face of a man worn down by years of hard work. This is what 53 years looks like in Ukraine.
Younger, younger!
On October 4, parliamentarian Roman Kostenko once again called on the government to begin mobilizing men aged 20 years and older. Kostenko, secretary of the parliamentary security and defense committee, stated the following in a TV interview:
“US congressmen call me all the time and say
"We give you weapons, and you say you don't have enough people. How is it that you don't conscript people under 25? How does that even work?"
"It's hard for me to answer, I don't know why,"
(Paywall with free trial)
https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... corruption
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A Forbes Contributor Fears That A Ceasefire Will Lead To A Pro-Russian Fascist Coup In Ukraine
Andrew Korybko
Oct 11, 2024
Most Westerners already know that Ukrainian nationalists fiercely hate Russia so they’re unlikely to fall for the fantasy that he’s peddling to scare them away from supporting a ceasefire.
Forbes contributor Melik Kaylan, who’s described by that outlet as having covered global geostrategic conflicts for three decades, published a highly speculative piece last week about “Moscow’s Hidden Plans For Exploiting A Ceasefire With Ukraine”. He predicts that “ultra-nationalist elements of the army (will) revolt and stage a coup against Zelensky for giving away Donbas and Crimea” if there’s a ceasefire, after which they’ll align with Russia due to being subjected to its propaganda and aliened by the West.
According to Kaylan, versions of this approach have been employed by Russia in the past in Georgia and Armenia, the first by supposedly meddling in its 2013 elections to get conservative-nationalists elected and the second after pro-Russian veterans of the original Karabakh War came to power. These are imperfect comparisons though since neither had a military coup nor were the nationalist who came to rule those countries driven by anti-Russian sentiment like is the case with most Ukrainian nationalists.
While there do indeed still exist some representatives of that ideology’s moderate school, in the sense of those who are proud of the regional identity that’s formed around their lands over the centuries but aren’t obsessed with hating Russia, the radicals still far outnumber them. It’s therefore unrealistic to imagine that there are enough moderates in the army to attempt a coup, that they wouldn’t be stopped by the radicals, and then their new regime will successfully repair ties with Russia.
What’s much more likely is that the radicals among them might attempt a coup if there’s a ceasefire, perhaps with the support of the SBU, though it wouldn’t be for pro-Russian purposes but to perpetuate the conflict that they’re doomed to lose anyhow in order to become “martyrs” for their cause. Even if that doesn’t unfold or fails, there’s no way that they’d sit back and let moderates take over the armed forces and then repair ties with Russia. They’d either rise up on their own or be ordered to by the US.
By seeding the false narrative that a ceasefire could lead to a pro-Russian coup, however, Kaylan is trying to scare the Western public away from embracing this scenario that’s increasingly being discussed. He’s hoping that Forbes’ perceived authority will reduce the chances that they’d question his words, but most Westerners already know that Ukrainian nationalists fiercely hate Russia. They remember Russia calling them Nazis and then their own governments defending them as “patriotic freedom fighters”.
Nobody will therefore be fooled by what he wrote, but it’s also possible that these weren’t solely his own ideas and that he was instead tasked by hawkish members of America’s permanent military, intelligence, and/or diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) with seeding this on their behalf. If that’s the case, then media figures might soon start talking about this too, all with the same intent no matter how ridiculous their forecast sounds to friends and foes alike.
Conspicuously absent from his prediction is any reference to the hundreds of billions of dollars that the West gave Ukraine, which bought them lots of influence within the Ukrainian “deep state”, thus raising questions about why their proxies wouldn’t stop a pro-Russian fascist military coup. The more that one thinks about it, the less that Kaylan’s fears make any sense, which exposes him as a propagandist whose only purpose is to fearmonger about the ceasefire scenario that more Westerners are now supporting.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/a-forbes ... ars-that-a
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Russian troops have begun the second phase of an active counteroffensive in the Kursk region
Mash: Russian Armed Forces have begun the second phase of an active counteroffensive in the Kursk region
Photo: Sergey Bobylev / RIA Novosti
The Russian Armed Forces have begun the second phase of an active counteroffensive in the Kursk region, writes the Telegram channel Mash.
According to the channel, Russian military personnel have already taken control of the village of Lyubimovka and the Sudzha-Korenevo road, which Ukrainian troops used to supply their units.
As stated in the publication, the majority of the military of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the Kursk border area are leaving their positions and fleeing towards Ukraine.
At that time, Russian paratroopers took the village of Zeleny Shlyakh without a fight, which the Ukrainian military had captured on the first day of the invasion of the Kursk region and attacked civilian settlements from there. The Russian Armed Forces also took control of Nizhny Klin , Mash reports, citing military bloggers.
Along with this, the channel reports that during the liberation of the Kursk border area by Russian troops, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost a large number of their soldiers.
Earlier, military blogger Yuriy Podolyaka reported that Russian troops had begun to "break through along the entire front" in the Kursk region. According to him, Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters in the village of Lyubimovka were cut off from the rest of the enemy formations.
https://lenta.ru/news/2024/10/10/rossiy ... 72252e7b64
Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V
Speeches increasingly far from reality
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/10/2024
“The President’s Office has once again made it clear that it does not agree with the possibility of stopping the war on the basis of the current front, which is increasingly being written about in the West,” the Ukrainian daily Strana wrote yesterday, referring to the reaction of Zelensky’s entourage to the news published on Thursday by Corriere della Sera , which insists on the idea of seeking a pause in the conflict in exchange for a quick accession to NATO of the Ukrainian territories still under Kiev’s control. Andriy Ermak and his chief lobbyist, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, explicitly rejected it in an article published by Project Syndicate prepared to coincide with Zelensky’s visit to the United States, during which he was to obtain support from the international community , i.e. from Washington and its partners, for the much-heralded but still undisclosed Victory Plan . However, the fact that this possibility, which would imply accepting de facto that around 20% of the territory that Ukraine considers its own according to its 1991 borders would be under Russian control, continues to be repeated in more and more media outlets, indicates that a part of the Western political establishment is beginning to view this scenario in a positive light. Judging by the leaks that have emerged in various media outlets, the idea would not include, at least initially, the security guarantees of Article V, that is, that NATO would assume the defence of Ukraine against any Russian attack on the front. This is probably why the proposal, which initially came from Ermak and Rasmussen precisely to directly involve the Alliance in the war, has been so roundly rejected by Kiev.
“All these discussions about “realistic scenarios for ending the war,” in which the key point – “let’s make concessions to the Russian Federation, let’s give it something, let’s not punish it, let’s all kneel together, forcing Ukraine not to resist” – are shocking. To get what as a result? Collective humiliation?” wrote Mikhail Podolyak yesterday in a post so long that it can be considered an article, published on his social networks. In it, the adviser to the President’s Office, practically its spokesman, seeks the most explicit way to present the current situation of the West as a humiliation that is not limited to the Ukrainian question, central but not the only one, but extends to the Middle East. “Hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israel. Houthis and Hezbollah have Russian weapons. Hundreds of Iranian drones and Russian and North Korean missiles hit Ukraine every week. The West’s closest allies in the east and eastern Europe are being brutally attacked. Along with the attack on the territory of Ukraine, the Russian Federation is attacking NATO’s right to determine the list of members of the defense alliance. Along with the attack on Israel, the right of states to proteKiev’s New Victory Plan: Endless War
Posted by Internationalist 360° on October 11, 2024
Dmitri Kovalevich
Just as day follows night, those who want to perpetuate today’s war can only achieve this by usurping political power and suppressing any and all public protest and disagreement.
In the second half of September, Ukrainian authorities have been particularly active with foreign policy, against a backdrop of uncertainty over the outcome of the elections to take place in the United States on November 5. Americans will vote for a president on that date, and also for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate.
The continuation by Ukraine of its military operations against Russia is essential to Kiev’s continued hold on power, but Ukraine is completely dependent financially and militarily on the United States and European Union. Volodymyr Zelensky, whose five-year electoral mandate as president Ukraine expired in April 2024, is under increased pressure by US legislators to present some kind of coherent ‘victory plan’ with dates, figures, and deadlines that can be sold to a largely uninformed but increasingly skeptical US electorate. A ‘plan’ is needed in order for the unconditional support that Zelensky has received to date from the Western powers may continue.
According to the Washington Post on September 13, Ukraine has prepared a new ‘victory plan’ that is near-ready to present to its Western government sponsors. The newspaper reported that Zelensky was to travel to the United States in late September to meet with President Joe Biden. Zelensky admits his ‘plan’ would not end the war against Russia outright, but “it would help” Ukraine and NATO in their war efforts.
Zelensky said he would like to meet Donald Trump while in New York in order that his ‘victory plan’ (consisting of stepped-up military assistance and unconditional support to Ukraine by the Western powers) has the support of whoever is elected president on November 5.
A ‘victory plan’ by Ukraine?
The Ukrainian public doesn’t know much about the ‘victory plan’, previously termed a ‘peace plan’ by Zelensky in an earlier variant. But already the ‘plan’ is attracting a lot of criticism, both inside and outside the country.
Zelensky presented a vague outline of his proposal at the annual conference in Kiev on September 13, 14 of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) foundation, an agency created by wealthy Ukraine oligarch Viktor Pinchuk in 2004. It meets annually in Kiev.
There are a total of five points in Zelensky’s ‘plan’, according to Ukrainian officials. “Four of these are what we need, and one addresses the post-war situation,” Zelensky declared in early September, though he declined to disclose details. Ukrainian media is reporting that the cornerstone of the ‘victory plan’ is a demand that the Western powers provide Ukraine with longer-range missiles that would allow it to strike deeper into Russian territory and, crucially, permission to use them.
The Ukrainian Telegram channel Rubicon writes that Kiev has been actively requesting permission for such strikes, not so much for military purposes but to gain advantages in information and psychological operations. In particular, a strike on some crowded gathering in the center of Moscow would be considered a victory for Kiev because of the public panic it would sow, even if from a military point of view it would have zero value.
According to the writers at Rubicon, such blows by Kiev could be truly destructive to the morale of Russian society and would inevitably lower the level of trust of the Russian people in their political and military leaders. Or at least, that the writers and Kiev itself hope for. Zelensky apparently believes in the military/political value of large-scale provocations against civilians in Russia, resembling, for example, the gruesome cyberattacks conducted by “Israel” in Lebanon on September 17 and 18. Those attacks killed dozens of people and injured thousands, including many children and many people losing one or both eyes.
The new ‘victory plan’ replaces the earlier, so-called peace formula which Kiev first promoted in late 2022. This project, which was essentially a proposal for Russia’s surrender, rather predictably failed to find support in the countries of the Global South.
Zelensky’s new ‘victory plan’ is in reality no plan at all. It consists largely of measures needed for the regime and its military to survive the current, steadily progressing offensive by Russia in the Donbass region. That is, they are seeking to buy more time in order to forcibly conscript yet more foot soldiers into the Ukrainian army, Ukrainian political analyst Vadym Karasev told the Politnavigator news outlet on September 17.
And NATO membership?
One of the points of Zelensky’s new ‘victory plan’ is for NATO to extend a formal invitation to Ukraine to join it. Outgoing NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told a farewell event organized in his honor in Germany on September 19 that there will be no peace in Ukraine until and unless Kiev becomes a NATO member. But he added that NATO countries currently have no consensus on conditions and dates for such an invitation.
In a recent, op-ed commentary, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson once again stated his strong support for NATO membership for Ukraine.
In early September, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration, Olha Stefanyshyna, boldly declared that Ukraine should only join NATO on the condition that its 1991 borders be recognized and enshrined. Many other Ukrainian officials still voice this forlorn hope. This is highly provocative to Russian ears and also to the citizens of former Ukraine territories, notably Crimea and Donbass. There, the population has endured more than 10 years of military threats and economic sanctions and blockades by Ukraine following the violent, far-right coup in Kiev in February 2014.
In particular, the citizens of the Donbass region (which Russia recognizes as the Russian republics of Lugansk and Donetsk) have endured more than 10 years of a cruel civil war waged by post-2014-coup Kiev with the backing of the NATO countries.
Crimea also suffered greatly from economic and all other forms of sanctions beginning in 2014. It remains a declared target of Ukrainian military attacks, but the peninsula was spared the direct military intervention by Ukraine into Donbass.
No going back for the new citizens of the Russian Federation
As a result of the 2014 coup and its aftermath, the citizens of Crimea and Donbass have voted overwhelmingly to join the Russian Federation. The final, definitive vote in Donbass took place soon after Russia began its military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022.
Crimea’s status was settled in the referendum vote of March 15, 2014. All polling since then, including polls conducted by Western and pro-Western polling agencies, have confirmed high rates of satisfaction with that vote by the residents of the peninsula.
Three of the principal goals of Russian diplomacy and of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine are to end Kiev’s civil war in Donbass, to end any challenges to Crimea’s status as a constituent of the Russian Federation, and to guarantee the future security of the two territories. (These would also apply to the ‘new territories’ of the Russian Federation, as they are called in Russia, of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya – former Ukraine oblasts).
The votes in Crimea and Donbass to join the Russian Federation amounted to a ‘rejoining’ of Russia, considering that both entities were joined with Russia not so long ago some 70 years ago and never accepted separation from it in 1990-91. Crimea long held an autonomous status in the Soviet Union until it was joined to Ukraine in 1954 through an administrative decision of the Soviet Union government of the day. Donbass residents never voted until recently on which country they would wish to join.
A perpetual proxy war by the West
Ukraine continues to be driven into a vicious circle of perpetual, proxy war at the behest of the NATO countries. Zelensky’s new ‘plan’ to ‘win’ that war consists of drawing the NATO countries more directly into the conflict with Russia, with weapons supplies and a future NATO membership for Kiev as leading edges. But NATO membership for Ukraine is impossible to imagine without a military defeat of Russia, and the only way to achieve that, according to Kiev ideologues, is to escalate, using the advanced weaponry that the NATO countries would provide.
In other words, the ‘peace plan’ is a plan for military escalation whose outcome is entirely unpredictable and could spark further and unthinkable military escalation.
Andriy Yermak, the head of the office of President Zelensky, emphasizes the necessity for the Western powers to participate more directly in the war against Russia. He told a September 9 report on the English-language website of that office, addressing the people and governments of the Western powers: “It’s not just about our freedom, independence and territorial integrity. This is also about you and your countries. Because this war is a test for the world. All of us – in Latin America, Africa, and Asia – want to live in a safe world, where rules and international law prevail, not one where whoever is strong, whoever is big, has all the rights.”
Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch often draws parallels between modern Ukraine and “Israel”. Both are militarized, pro-Western states that must constantly be at war in order to avoid defeat and collapse at the hands of those whose territories they occupy illegally. Kushch writes that Netanyahu goes to war even as he talks about ‘peace’ because his strategy is to drag the US into a major regional war, aiming to crush Iran, the only large country in the Middle East that is today able and prepared to stand up to “Israel” and its US and European backers.
“Netanyahu will not stop. He could be replaced through a political process, but as long as the war is going on, that is impossible. Any ‘intermediate’ resolution of “Israel’s” conflict with the Palestinian people is, for him, akin to political death. Looking at him, one can even formulate the maxim of his policy, ‘War is power. Power is life. The end of war equals the loss of power. The loss of power equals the loss of political life, at a minimum,’ the Ukrainian economist paraphrases.
The same formula of perpetual war with the prospect of escalating into a global war also applies in Ukraine. For Zelensky, it is exactly the same — the end of the war will mean the loss of power and political death not only for him but also for the tens of thousands of corrupt, Ukrainian officials who have enriched themselves since 2014 thanks to Western aid and who wish this to continue.
The Western, imperialist countries also benefit from the continuation of the war in Ukraine. The Financial Times reported on September 11 that according to a spending watchdog it cites, much of the military aid the UK has given to Ukraine has consisted of old equipment such as boots that would otherwise have to be thrown away. Military gear that was “often due to be scrapped or replaced” has been prioritized by the UK Ministry of Defense because it is deemed to have “immediate military value” to Ukraine. But it so happens that sending such equipment to Kiev also “reduced waste or costs relating to disposal”.
Other Western supporters have also given aging equipment to Kiev. In one recent US example, ten military transport vehicles ostensibly worth more than $7 million had a combined book value of zero. In other words, this trafficking of used military equipment can be extremely profitable for the West. Much of that traffic consists of selling on credit to Ukraine what amounts to scrap metal that would otherwise cost the United States and Great Britain considerable funds for disposal.
Former Ukrainian MP and ultra-nationalist Igor Mosiychuk says that Ukrainians are simply being thrown into the cauldron of war similar to coal being shoveled into a furnace. “We are given aid and we are given weapons so that we can continue effective defense, but not enough to stop the enemy or win the war. Our nation is being used like coal or charcoal to fry the Russian Federation.”
Ukraine billionaire, a great friend of Western leaders, presses for an expanded war
In late September, Ukrainian billionaire Viktor Pinchuk, son-in-law of Ukraine’s second president Leonid Kuchma, hosted the aforementioned YES forum in Kiev. Pinchuk is known for funding Western politicians, including donating to the Clinton Foundation, maintaining friendly relations with former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and organizing parties for the Western elites when they gather each year in Davos, Switzerland.
At the September forum, Pinchuk said the West should provide Kiev with as many weapons and money as it wants and cater to its requests, since Western countries are unwilling to sacrifice the lives of their own soldiers in fighting Russia. He also wants military aid to be provided without any conditions or reservations, saying that Western fears about the risks of escalation of the conflict with Russia were merely a result of “Kremlin propaganda”. There is nothing to fear, he asserts. Most of Pinchuk’s family relatives live in London in luxury real estate acquired by him over the years.
Without Russia’s defeat, Pinchuk says, war could break out in other regions. “If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, then China, North Korea, and Iran are likely to turn against Taiwan, South Korea, and Israel. The whole world will be drawn into war. The more military support there is for Ukraine, the less risk there will be of escalation, of war between NATO and Russia, and of a global domino effect with the emergence of more and more wars against democracy,” Pinchuk told the forum gathering.
According to him, Ukrainians are the chosen people to show the triumph of freedom and democracy. But he would like Europeans to personally participate in the war with the Russian Federation as well. “When I call Ukrainians the chosen people, many important parallels arise in my mind. I will cite only one: The Pharaoh [Vladimir Putin] must lose, and to achieve this, we must defeat him,” the billionaire concluded.
According to ABC News, former Trump administration official Kellyanne Conway has registered in the United States as a foreign agent representing Victor Pinchuk’s foundation. The same news reports explain, “Pinchuk has also been a prolific donor to the Clinton Foundation, giving tens of millions of dollars to the group over the years.”
‘To win or not to be’
At the YES forum, Pinchuk summarized in Shakespearean language his recommended strategy for Ukraine in its war with Russia: ‘To win or not to be’.
Ukraine legislator Oleksandr Dubinsky, a former ally of Zelensky, commented to his followers on Telegram: “The phrase ‘To win or not to be’ voiced by Pinchuk at the YES gathering is all about eternal war, in which the Ukrainian nation has no right to accept defeat. Although Pinchuk wanted to mix Shakespeare and Churchill in his wording, it sounded more like Hitler in 1945: ‘If the German nation cannot win this war, it must disappear.’ This is exactly the choice Pinchuk and Zelensky are putting before Ukrainians today,” Dubinsky wrote.
In other words, the workers and farmers of Ukraine, who have become the main targets of forced military mobilization, should sacrifice their lives for the preservation of the global world order and the fortunes of Ukraine’s class of billionaires.
A de facto demilitarization of Ukraine
In reality, Ukrainian political scientist Vadym Karasev argues, Ukraine is effectively demilitarizing, both militarily and psychologically. “Firstly, we risk demilitarization from the fighting because we are losing people and equipment. We cannot restore equipment in sufficient quantity because we simply do not have our own capacity to do so, and as for losing people (our soldiers), neither can these be replaced.
“Secondly, there is a demilitarization of consciousness taking place. We see what is happening with the military mobilization [conscription]. There are forced kidnappings taking place because so many citizens do not want to fight. They are not yet militarized and they feel that little can be achieved in this way,” he says.
Moreover, according to estimates from the World Health Organization, nearly 10 million people in Ukraine are suffering severe mental disorders due to the war, or are at risk of doing so.
For Kiev journalism professor Nikita Vasilenko, a simple preservation of the country of Ukraine in some form should be considered a victory. “To preserve the country, we must go for even the most despicable, bastardized peace plan. That is for one simple reason — one more offensive such as the recent one into Kursk, Russia will cost us the remaining elite of the nation. At Kursk, by our count, about 10,000 have already fallen. The Russians’ count of our losses is a much higher number, an immense one as should be expected. Whatever the exact count, these losses were professional troops, consisting of young men who can no longer regenerate and revive the population.”
In response to the requests for peace being increasingly sounded in Ukraine, the editors of the Washington Post are turning to scaring Ukrainians with the specter of a new coup d’état in the event of any peace agreement involving the loss of territory. They cite several Ukrainian military officials to this effect.
Oleksandr Dubinskyy writes that it was Zelensky’s lobbyists who relayed to Western media the thesis voiced by Pinchuk at the YES conference, which was, in turn, drawn from the invited, Ukrainian military leaders in attendance, namely: ‘Peace in exchange for territory in Ukraine will lead to civil war’. Dubinsky writes, “This is nothing more than fear-mongering directed by Zelensky at the Western governments and populations. He is saying, effectively: ‘If you force me to go for a peace settlement, you will get a coup.’ However, a coup is only possible if Zelensky, who has done everything against the interests of Ukraine, remains in power without elections.”
Zelensky and the military hawks in the West who back him are claiming to speak on behalf of the Ukrainian people. But they do not and cannot know the peoples’ views. In the current conditions of martial law, tight media censorship, and ultra-right terror in Ukraine to suppress any expressions of political protest, no accurate survey of Ukrainians’ opinions on social, political, and military matters is possible or even permitted. Moreover, politically savvy people in Ukraine know that speaking one’s mind to sociologists conducting surveys is not a safe thing to do in the country today. It can be done only at considerable risk to one’s personal safety and security.
Elections in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely, until the end of martial law, whenever that may arrive. Zelensky and the Western hawks are seeking all-out to perpetuate the war against Russia. Just as day follows night, those who want to perpetuate today’s war can only achieve this by usurping political power and suppressing any and all public protest and disagreement.ct citizens from terrorist acts is being attacked. But despite its absolute military, technical and financial superiority, the West responds to the blatant bullying of its partners and allies… by holding long public discussions about limiting the force of a possible response. Or even discussing ideas about “how we can collectively surrender in the most humiliating way,” Podolyak continues, equating as innocent victims Ukraine and Israel, which in the past year has killed more civilians than the two armies fighting the Russo-Ukrainian war in more than two and a half years.
In the simple and straightforward world of geopolitics in the Ukrainian President's Office, the solution is always more weapons and more involvement of NATO countries, especially the most powerful of them, the United States. And from his position, increasingly removed from reality, Podolyak wonders why, in media that until now have been completely loyal to the Ukrainian version of events, proposals are beginning to appear that are not entirely in favour of continuing to escalate the war until the final defeat of the common enemy, the Russian Federation. "I do not understand these pessimistic articles about the Donetsk region in various media," Podolyak said in an interview with Die Welt , adding that Russian progress is limited and insisting that it is coming at the cost of enormous casualties. What Andriy Ermak's advisor is hiding is that these advances are taking place in some of the most fortified areas of the front, that they are happening at the cost of a significant wear and tear of the Ukrainian troops as well, and that Russia is approaching key cities for maintaining the integrity of the most important front of this war, that of Donbass. Yesterday, somewhat surprisingly given the rapid progress that it represents, both Russian and Ukrainian sources showed that Russia has already reached the geographical limits of the city of Kurajovo, one of the two key towns for the control of the entire southern and western area of the Donetsk region. Russian troops are also advancing in preparation for the approach to Krasnoarmeysk-Pokrovsk. The fact that they are doing so slowly, advancing in several directions shows a change of tactics, precisely to avoid the stratospheric casualties that the battle for Artyomovsk entailed, although on the part of Ukraine it is being presented as a sign of weakness, which it is not.
Without any interest in keeping with the reality of the moment, in the same interview Podolyak states that “today, we have all the tools to make Russia lose. The fact that the Russian Federation is exhausted is already evident.” This speech contrasts with the growing Western concern about Ukraine’s ability to wage a long-term war of attrition in which Russia remains able to keep its economy afloat – and growing – there is no internal destabilization due to the conflict and military production continues to outstrip Western supply to kyiv. Added to this is the constant concern about the possibility of a Ukrainian collapse due to a lack of troops, which is why appeals continue to recruit men between 20 and 25 years old, a particularly small cohort that Ukraine does not want to sacrifice in the trenches.
“I get calls from American congressmen all the time and they say, ‘We give you weapons, but you say you don’t have enough people. How can you not recruit people under 25? How does that work? ’” said Ukrainian MP Roman Kostenko, arguing in favour of such a mobilisation, which is even more unpopular in Ukraine than the current conscription, which is being opposed by more and more people. In addition to attempts to flee the country or prevent conscription by a part of the military-aged population and attacks on recruitment offices, there are also more and more examples of resistance that end in tragedy. “US politicians are pressuring Ukraine to expand its infamous conscription to the endangered 18-25 demographic because they are running out of older Ukrainians,” journalist Mark Ames wrote on social media in reaction to the news that a 53-year-old man who had already been declared unfit for military service was beaten to death as agents attempted to recruit him.
It is not only the maps of territorial control, macroeconomic or production data or news about mobilization that refute the triumphalist vision that the Office of the President of Ukraine tries to maintain despite the evidence. Even commanders of units at the front allow themselves, anonymously or under their name and photograph, to contradict the official version. “I am not thinking about the 1991 borders at all. Now I am thinking about how not to lose the positions I hold. We have crossed the borders of 2023, then those of 2024 and in three months we will be at those of 2025. And then we will go to the borders of 91, only in the opposite direction,” Kiril Veres, commander of the K-2 battalion of the 54th brigade, has declared in recent hours. It is not the pro-Russian media that see the victory that Zelensky continues to promise as unfeasible, but those who are aware of the situation on the ground.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/12/discu ... -realidad/
Google Translator
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 12 October 2024) Main points :
- The "Center" group continued to advance deep into the enemy's defences, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 490 servicemen;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost 640 servicemen and a Swedish self-propelled gun in the area of responsibility of the "South" group in 24 hours;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 465 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the Western group in 24 hours;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 110 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the Northern group of forces in 24 hours;
- Fighters of the "East" group improved their tactical situation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 140 servicemen and 11 vehicles;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 soldiers and an ammunition depot due to the actions of the "Dnepr" group;
- The Russian Air Defense Forces shot down 11 HIMARS projectiles and 125 drones in 24 hours.
- The Russian Armed Forces damaged energy infrastructure facilities that supported the operation of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine.
Units of the "East" group of forces improved their tactical position. The 58th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 21st National Guard brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Velyka Novosyolka and Oktyabr of the Donetsk People's Republic.
Three counterattacks of assault groups of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 123rd territorial defense brigade were repelled. The enemy lost up to 140 servicemen and eleven vehicles. An ammunition depot was destroyed .
Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 31st, 118th mechanized, 141st infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 36th marine brigade, the 103rd and 108th territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Kazatskoye in the Kherson region, Kamenskoye, Novodanilovka, Belogorye and Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhia region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen, seven vehicles, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Bogdana" , an 85-mm divisional gun D-44 , and a "Bukovel-AD" electronic warfare station . An ammunition depot was destroyed .
Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups inflicted damage on energy infrastructure facilities that supported the operation of the military-industrial complex, concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 146 areas.
Air defense systems shot down 11 US-made HIMARS rockets and 125 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,544 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,611 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,470 multiple launch rocket systems, 16,048 field artillery pieces and mortars, 27,197 units of special military vehicles.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
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SITREP 10/10/24: From Bad to Worse for Ukraine Amid New Surge of Russian Advances
Simplicius
Oct 10, 2024
<snip>
On the Front
The situation on the front mirrors the political one for Zelensky—and in fact is the very reason for the latter’s urgency, compelling Zelensky to flit from one continent to the next in pursuit of help like a fly prancing from one turd to another.
The echoes of Ugledar’s fall continue to haunt the AFU in more ways than one. The debacle of the 72nd Brigade’s collapse is only just now being pieced together and understood in full, with articles like the following clarifying the suicide of one of the battalion commanders:
https://militaryland.net/news/the-comma ... d-suicide/
Meanwhile, the 123rd Brigade was supposed to provide relieving cover for the retreating 72nd, and apparently betrayed them, causing an internecine fight resulting in troops from the 123rd being captured by the survivors of the 72nd.
(Videos at link)
Meanwhile, videos have begun to appear of family members’ pleas toward their missing servicemen. Here a daughter of a soldier from Ukraine’s 152nd says hundreds are missing in the Pokrovsk direction: (Video at link.)
Aidar boss Mosiychuk confirms:
On the tactical side, Russian forces have made a few sudden advances in unexpected zones of the frontline. Granted, to play devil’s advocate, the pro-Ukrainian side’s narrative is that these are a last-ditch attempt to take some meaningful land before the full onset of both October Rasputitsa as well as the winter freeze in general. We’ll see if there’s any truth to that. But recall that the main battle of the past year started precisely on October 10th—exactly a year ago today—that of Avdeevka: when the Russian 114th Brigade stormed out of neighboring Krasnogorovka toward the ‘Slag Heap’ en route to both Stepove and the notorious Coke Plant. That battle raged until February with no abatement, neither for rain, nor sleet, nor snow.
So now, we’ve had the usual incremental advances in the known areas: for instance toward Kurakhove, more areas north of Ugledar captured, around Selydove in the Pokrovsk direction—which town is being slowly enveloped in a cauldron:
Then there was the total capture of Tsukuryne in the same direction:
Consolidation and deep advances into Toretsk, which appears nearly 50% captured. As well as more small breakthroughs into Chasov Yar.
New massive chunk of Toretsk captured seen below:
But the big unexpected surprises came in the following directions:
A sudden gambit across the dry reservoir established a beachhead on Kamianske, opposite Russia’s positions south of Zaporozhye city:
The eminent Suriyak, however, claims the AFU expelled the Russian forces thereafter, though it remains uncertain.
The other most surprising was an advance toward long-contested Siversk near the Donetsk-Kharkov border. This too was a source of much infighting, particularly amongst the Ukrainian crowd:
But the short of it is that Russian forces appeared to spring a salient toward here:
The most significant though was an advance southward past recently-captured Sinkovka up in the north, near Kupyansk. Russian forces finally reached Petropavlovka again. You may recall, it was the site of the famous “last stand” battle of Russian troops against Western mercenaries that was amongst the most dramatic and memorably heroic episodes yet captured on film in the entire SMO.
There are many other small advances made in that region, including Vyshneve to the south (circled in yellow) and the whole area circled in red, which is turning everything between there and Sinkovka into a giant cauldron trapped against the Oskil River:
The other big advances came in the Kursk region, where Russia appeared to launch a mini offensive which resulted in the immediate driving back of Ukrainian forces, although early reports of “columns fleeing into Sumy region” were refuted by Russian sources—to the contrary, the AFU is trying to introduce reserves and hold their positions.
As seen above the offensive was primarily carried out by the 155th Marines and 106th Airborne who stormed from Korenovo direction in the northwest, again shrinking the Ukrainian land holdings of Russian territory.
Their total holdings look something like this now (white lines), with the yellow wiggly lines representing what Ukraine held as recently as a week or so ago:
Suriyak official:
In short, their control is rapidly shrinking.
Here two Russian BTR-82As were seen chasing off a Ukrainian tank, after it’s seen firing in the opening of the video, at geolocation: 51.31722474110465, 35.08217306597342
(Video at link.)
Russian Army Begins Breakthrough on Kursk Front: Powerful Assault on Lyubimovka and Attack on Zeleny Shlyakh to Cut Off Ukrainian Armed Forces Group
Today our armored groups unexpectedly attacked and broke through the enemy's defenses in the Kursk border area.
About 30 units of Russian equipment are storming the village of Lyubimovka, wrote media officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "Alex". Russian troops managed to advance and are now consolidating, the fighting continues.
A video has also appeared showing armored personnel carriers of the 155th Marine Brigade attacking and chasing a Ukrainian Armed Forces tank at the entrance to the neighboring settlement of Zeleny Shlyakh from the direction of Korenevo.
Green Way is located in the rear of Lyubimovka. If this village is occupied by Russian troops, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Lyubimovka will be surrounded.
In fact the geolocation of that escapade shows Russian forces operating much farther than ‘officially held’ territory:
Now there is even the news that Ukrainian units have begun slowly withdrawing from Sudzha itself, albeit unconfirmed for now:
Ukrainian Army is gradually withdrawing to the town of Sudzha. Russian Army has entered Zelenyi Shlyakh and Novoivanovka and is approaching Nizhnii Klin from Obukhovka. Reports about the arrival of Russian forces to Sverdlikovo are not correct.
Of course a complement of Ukrainian POWs was taken: (Video at link.)
And here’s what an AFU channel writes from the frontline:
(Much more at link.)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... -worse-for
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The Russian ‘Steamroller’ in Donbas
In yesterday’s discussion with Judge Andrew Napolitano on his youtube channel ‘Judging Freedom’, I was asked to comment on the status of the fighting on the ground in Kursk and in the Donbas.
I did this, making it clear that the Russians are mopping up the remaining stragglers among Ukrainian and NATO forces there now. The main Ukrainian force has been killed and that is why the daily ‘kill’ of the Russians has now dropped from 400 Ukrainians a day to just 100 yesterday.
The Russians put the figure of killed and maimed UkrNazis in Kursk at 21,000 and claim to have destroyed 136 tanks within Kursk apart from other mechanized units and artillery. The border with Ukraine at Kursk province is largely sealed so that no reinforcements or relief can reach those relatively few who have remained.
The Russians claim to have taken back many of the hamlets in Kursk overrun by the Kievan troops at the start of their incursion/invasion. The only substantial town in the Russian territory held by Kiev, Sudzha, best known as the home of the metering station for the gas pipelines running from Russia, across Ukraine, to Europe – Sudzha is now coming under Russian attack and surely will be retaken soon.
As for Donbas, the Russians are advancing along the whole front day by day, taking additional settlements as they pass through. I believe they have captured about 500 square kilometers of Ukrainian held Donbas over the last month, including the critically important fortified city of Uhledar, which is a logistical nexus for Ukrainian supplies to their front line troops. The still bigger logistical hub of Pokrovsk is now within reach and will surely be captured by the Russians in the next few weeks, leaving open to them the largely unfortified lands to the west stretching straight to the Dniepr river.
In reporting all of this, I was saying little more than what you otherwise can hear or read from nearly all of my peers in the Alternative Media, or even on such mainstream media as the internet platforms of the Times of India or the Indian broadcaster WION.
Now I would like to present what no one seems to be saying about the Russian ‘steamroller’ but which is freely available information if you bother to go to Russian state television’s main news programs each day or to the most authoritative political talk show, The Great Game, hosted by Vyacheslav Nikonov. What you see there is the war correspondents’ interviews with Russian soldiers in the field. These reporters are covering all the terrain along the front each day. What you will hear from their interviewees is that the battles are intense as the Russian army moves from settlement to settlement. They storm them after massive artillery and bomb attacks. Then they enter and clear them of Ukrainian mines and lurking snipers. Notwithstanding the preparatory destructive open work, the soldiers tell you that the fighting is fierce in some settlements, proceeding street by street, and house by house.
For their part, the correspondents in their vehicles are on constant lookout for attack drones sent over by the Ukrainians. The Russian artillery and rapid-fire rocket launchers are being moving around all the time to escape counter fire by the Ukrainians.
In a word, this is not a steamroller that any of the cheerleaders in the Alternative Media would be keen to ride. The Russians are not advancing in parade uniforms but in heavily armored fatigues and with greatest caution.
Similarly, a word is essential about what Russian television is showing in the ‘recaptured’ Kursk settlements. They have been largely demolished by artillery fire and Russia’s heavy glide bombs. What I was saying at the start of the Ukrainian invasion when Russia ordered the full evacuation of civilians from the territory occupied by Kievan forces has been proven true. They were evacuated because the entire territory was made a free fire zone by the Russian army in order to ensure that the invaders would have no possibility of defending themselves in houses or other infrastructure as they do systematically in the Donbas towns that the Russians are now storming. The objective in Kursk was clearly to reduce to a bare minimum any losses of life among the Russians in the reconquest.
I have at times made it clear that official Russian television is my main source of information and for this, as should be clear from the above, I make no apologies. Quite the contrary…I ask why my peers are not consulting the same open sources.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/10/11/ ... in-donbas/
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Attack on the decline
October 11, 18:53
Offensives on the wane
I recently expressed an idea in the comments, I will expand a little more fully. Can an army that is on the wane of its power launch an offensive, take territory? Launch an offensive in the Kursk region, in short.
Of course it can. Historical examples here are the Wehrmacht offensive in the Ardennes in 1944 and on Lake Balaton in 1945 (not only the March "Spring Awakening", but also the "Conrads" in January).
The goal of the offensive in the Ardennes (codename "Wacht am Rhein", "Watch on the Rhine" - such a patriotic German song) was quite tangible - the port of Antwerp. Indeed, Antwerp, when the issue with the island of Walcheren at the mouth of the Scheldt was resolved in late autumn 1944, significantly facilitated the supply of the Allied armies on the approaches to Germany. Before that, they were suffocated by the need to drive cargo in a roundabout way by car (Red Ball Express) with a number of ports occupied by German garrisons in "fortress" mode.
I emphasize: this is not a repetition of the "sickle strike" of May 1940. A much simpler and more tangible goal. Field Marshal Model's proposal to launch a local counterattack in this context was noticeably worse. It did not have the same effect as the capture of Antwerp. Which would have forced the Allies to get stuck on the German border for a long time.
Did the Americans uncover the German preparations? They did not. Including due to the fact that "Ultra" intercepts radiograms in a maneuverable battle, but does not intercept telephones on a static front, and maintaining radio silence is the basis of operational camouflage.
However, what do we see in the case of the army "coming from the fair"? Firstly, the operation was prepared for a very long time due to, among other things, the need to accumulate fuel. Because in September the tap with Romania was turned off (by the forces of the 2nd and 3rd Ukrainian) and the allies seriously worked on the synthetic fuel plants.
Secondly, we see that despite all the tricks, Antwerp was far away. It turned out to be only a wedging with a limited result from all points of view. What was the "Antwerp" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Kursk NPP? Probably. We'll find out later.
About Balaton next time. And yes, there is a third question: will there be an operation "Nordwind" and where?
(c) Alexey Isaev
https://t.me/iron_wind/1077 - zinc
The enemy did not achieve the goals with the Kursk NPP and the Lgov-Kurchatov highway and the offensive gradually fizzled out. The consequences are now coming.
But of course, attempts to turn around the bad operational situation by tactical means will continue, mainly with the support of the West.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9433718.html
Google Translator
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/10/2024
“The President’s Office has once again made it clear that it does not agree with the possibility of stopping the war on the basis of the current front, which is increasingly being written about in the West,” the Ukrainian daily Strana wrote yesterday, referring to the reaction of Zelensky’s entourage to the news published on Thursday by Corriere della Sera , which insists on the idea of seeking a pause in the conflict in exchange for a quick accession to NATO of the Ukrainian territories still under Kiev’s control. Andriy Ermak and his chief lobbyist, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, explicitly rejected it in an article published by Project Syndicate prepared to coincide with Zelensky’s visit to the United States, during which he was to obtain support from the international community , i.e. from Washington and its partners, for the much-heralded but still undisclosed Victory Plan . However, the fact that this possibility, which would imply accepting de facto that around 20% of the territory that Ukraine considers its own according to its 1991 borders would be under Russian control, continues to be repeated in more and more media outlets, indicates that a part of the Western political establishment is beginning to view this scenario in a positive light. Judging by the leaks that have emerged in various media outlets, the idea would not include, at least initially, the security guarantees of Article V, that is, that NATO would assume the defence of Ukraine against any Russian attack on the front. This is probably why the proposal, which initially came from Ermak and Rasmussen precisely to directly involve the Alliance in the war, has been so roundly rejected by Kiev.
“All these discussions about “realistic scenarios for ending the war,” in which the key point – “let’s make concessions to the Russian Federation, let’s give it something, let’s not punish it, let’s all kneel together, forcing Ukraine not to resist” – are shocking. To get what as a result? Collective humiliation?” wrote Mikhail Podolyak yesterday in a post so long that it can be considered an article, published on his social networks. In it, the adviser to the President’s Office, practically its spokesman, seeks the most explicit way to present the current situation of the West as a humiliation that is not limited to the Ukrainian question, central but not the only one, but extends to the Middle East. “Hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israel. Houthis and Hezbollah have Russian weapons. Hundreds of Iranian drones and Russian and North Korean missiles hit Ukraine every week. The West’s closest allies in the east and eastern Europe are being brutally attacked. Along with the attack on the territory of Ukraine, the Russian Federation is attacking NATO’s right to determine the list of members of the defense alliance. Along with the attack on Israel, the right of states to proteKiev’s New Victory Plan: Endless War
Posted by Internationalist 360° on October 11, 2024
Dmitri Kovalevich
Just as day follows night, those who want to perpetuate today’s war can only achieve this by usurping political power and suppressing any and all public protest and disagreement.
In the second half of September, Ukrainian authorities have been particularly active with foreign policy, against a backdrop of uncertainty over the outcome of the elections to take place in the United States on November 5. Americans will vote for a president on that date, and also for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate.
The continuation by Ukraine of its military operations against Russia is essential to Kiev’s continued hold on power, but Ukraine is completely dependent financially and militarily on the United States and European Union. Volodymyr Zelensky, whose five-year electoral mandate as president Ukraine expired in April 2024, is under increased pressure by US legislators to present some kind of coherent ‘victory plan’ with dates, figures, and deadlines that can be sold to a largely uninformed but increasingly skeptical US electorate. A ‘plan’ is needed in order for the unconditional support that Zelensky has received to date from the Western powers may continue.
According to the Washington Post on September 13, Ukraine has prepared a new ‘victory plan’ that is near-ready to present to its Western government sponsors. The newspaper reported that Zelensky was to travel to the United States in late September to meet with President Joe Biden. Zelensky admits his ‘plan’ would not end the war against Russia outright, but “it would help” Ukraine and NATO in their war efforts.
Zelensky said he would like to meet Donald Trump while in New York in order that his ‘victory plan’ (consisting of stepped-up military assistance and unconditional support to Ukraine by the Western powers) has the support of whoever is elected president on November 5.
A ‘victory plan’ by Ukraine?
The Ukrainian public doesn’t know much about the ‘victory plan’, previously termed a ‘peace plan’ by Zelensky in an earlier variant. But already the ‘plan’ is attracting a lot of criticism, both inside and outside the country.
Zelensky presented a vague outline of his proposal at the annual conference in Kiev on September 13, 14 of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) foundation, an agency created by wealthy Ukraine oligarch Viktor Pinchuk in 2004. It meets annually in Kiev.
There are a total of five points in Zelensky’s ‘plan’, according to Ukrainian officials. “Four of these are what we need, and one addresses the post-war situation,” Zelensky declared in early September, though he declined to disclose details. Ukrainian media is reporting that the cornerstone of the ‘victory plan’ is a demand that the Western powers provide Ukraine with longer-range missiles that would allow it to strike deeper into Russian territory and, crucially, permission to use them.
The Ukrainian Telegram channel Rubicon writes that Kiev has been actively requesting permission for such strikes, not so much for military purposes but to gain advantages in information and psychological operations. In particular, a strike on some crowded gathering in the center of Moscow would be considered a victory for Kiev because of the public panic it would sow, even if from a military point of view it would have zero value.
According to the writers at Rubicon, such blows by Kiev could be truly destructive to the morale of Russian society and would inevitably lower the level of trust of the Russian people in their political and military leaders. Or at least, that the writers and Kiev itself hope for. Zelensky apparently believes in the military/political value of large-scale provocations against civilians in Russia, resembling, for example, the gruesome cyberattacks conducted by “Israel” in Lebanon on September 17 and 18. Those attacks killed dozens of people and injured thousands, including many children and many people losing one or both eyes.
The new ‘victory plan’ replaces the earlier, so-called peace formula which Kiev first promoted in late 2022. This project, which was essentially a proposal for Russia’s surrender, rather predictably failed to find support in the countries of the Global South.
Zelensky’s new ‘victory plan’ is in reality no plan at all. It consists largely of measures needed for the regime and its military to survive the current, steadily progressing offensive by Russia in the Donbass region. That is, they are seeking to buy more time in order to forcibly conscript yet more foot soldiers into the Ukrainian army, Ukrainian political analyst Vadym Karasev told the Politnavigator news outlet on September 17.
And NATO membership?
One of the points of Zelensky’s new ‘victory plan’ is for NATO to extend a formal invitation to Ukraine to join it. Outgoing NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told a farewell event organized in his honor in Germany on September 19 that there will be no peace in Ukraine until and unless Kiev becomes a NATO member. But he added that NATO countries currently have no consensus on conditions and dates for such an invitation.
In a recent, op-ed commentary, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson once again stated his strong support for NATO membership for Ukraine.
In early September, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration, Olha Stefanyshyna, boldly declared that Ukraine should only join NATO on the condition that its 1991 borders be recognized and enshrined. Many other Ukrainian officials still voice this forlorn hope. This is highly provocative to Russian ears and also to the citizens of former Ukraine territories, notably Crimea and Donbass. There, the population has endured more than 10 years of military threats and economic sanctions and blockades by Ukraine following the violent, far-right coup in Kiev in February 2014.
In particular, the citizens of the Donbass region (which Russia recognizes as the Russian republics of Lugansk and Donetsk) have endured more than 10 years of a cruel civil war waged by post-2014-coup Kiev with the backing of the NATO countries.
Crimea also suffered greatly from economic and all other forms of sanctions beginning in 2014. It remains a declared target of Ukrainian military attacks, but the peninsula was spared the direct military intervention by Ukraine into Donbass.
No going back for the new citizens of the Russian Federation
As a result of the 2014 coup and its aftermath, the citizens of Crimea and Donbass have voted overwhelmingly to join the Russian Federation. The final, definitive vote in Donbass took place soon after Russia began its military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022.
Crimea’s status was settled in the referendum vote of March 15, 2014. All polling since then, including polls conducted by Western and pro-Western polling agencies, have confirmed high rates of satisfaction with that vote by the residents of the peninsula.
Three of the principal goals of Russian diplomacy and of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine are to end Kiev’s civil war in Donbass, to end any challenges to Crimea’s status as a constituent of the Russian Federation, and to guarantee the future security of the two territories. (These would also apply to the ‘new territories’ of the Russian Federation, as they are called in Russia, of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya – former Ukraine oblasts).
The votes in Crimea and Donbass to join the Russian Federation amounted to a ‘rejoining’ of Russia, considering that both entities were joined with Russia not so long ago some 70 years ago and never accepted separation from it in 1990-91. Crimea long held an autonomous status in the Soviet Union until it was joined to Ukraine in 1954 through an administrative decision of the Soviet Union government of the day. Donbass residents never voted until recently on which country they would wish to join.
A perpetual proxy war by the West
Ukraine continues to be driven into a vicious circle of perpetual, proxy war at the behest of the NATO countries. Zelensky’s new ‘plan’ to ‘win’ that war consists of drawing the NATO countries more directly into the conflict with Russia, with weapons supplies and a future NATO membership for Kiev as leading edges. But NATO membership for Ukraine is impossible to imagine without a military defeat of Russia, and the only way to achieve that, according to Kiev ideologues, is to escalate, using the advanced weaponry that the NATO countries would provide.
In other words, the ‘peace plan’ is a plan for military escalation whose outcome is entirely unpredictable and could spark further and unthinkable military escalation.
Andriy Yermak, the head of the office of President Zelensky, emphasizes the necessity for the Western powers to participate more directly in the war against Russia. He told a September 9 report on the English-language website of that office, addressing the people and governments of the Western powers: “It’s not just about our freedom, independence and territorial integrity. This is also about you and your countries. Because this war is a test for the world. All of us – in Latin America, Africa, and Asia – want to live in a safe world, where rules and international law prevail, not one where whoever is strong, whoever is big, has all the rights.”
Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch often draws parallels between modern Ukraine and “Israel”. Both are militarized, pro-Western states that must constantly be at war in order to avoid defeat and collapse at the hands of those whose territories they occupy illegally. Kushch writes that Netanyahu goes to war even as he talks about ‘peace’ because his strategy is to drag the US into a major regional war, aiming to crush Iran, the only large country in the Middle East that is today able and prepared to stand up to “Israel” and its US and European backers.
“Netanyahu will not stop. He could be replaced through a political process, but as long as the war is going on, that is impossible. Any ‘intermediate’ resolution of “Israel’s” conflict with the Palestinian people is, for him, akin to political death. Looking at him, one can even formulate the maxim of his policy, ‘War is power. Power is life. The end of war equals the loss of power. The loss of power equals the loss of political life, at a minimum,’ the Ukrainian economist paraphrases.
The same formula of perpetual war with the prospect of escalating into a global war also applies in Ukraine. For Zelensky, it is exactly the same — the end of the war will mean the loss of power and political death not only for him but also for the tens of thousands of corrupt, Ukrainian officials who have enriched themselves since 2014 thanks to Western aid and who wish this to continue.
The Western, imperialist countries also benefit from the continuation of the war in Ukraine. The Financial Times reported on September 11 that according to a spending watchdog it cites, much of the military aid the UK has given to Ukraine has consisted of old equipment such as boots that would otherwise have to be thrown away. Military gear that was “often due to be scrapped or replaced” has been prioritized by the UK Ministry of Defense because it is deemed to have “immediate military value” to Ukraine. But it so happens that sending such equipment to Kiev also “reduced waste or costs relating to disposal”.
Other Western supporters have also given aging equipment to Kiev. In one recent US example, ten military transport vehicles ostensibly worth more than $7 million had a combined book value of zero. In other words, this trafficking of used military equipment can be extremely profitable for the West. Much of that traffic consists of selling on credit to Ukraine what amounts to scrap metal that would otherwise cost the United States and Great Britain considerable funds for disposal.
Former Ukrainian MP and ultra-nationalist Igor Mosiychuk says that Ukrainians are simply being thrown into the cauldron of war similar to coal being shoveled into a furnace. “We are given aid and we are given weapons so that we can continue effective defense, but not enough to stop the enemy or win the war. Our nation is being used like coal or charcoal to fry the Russian Federation.”
Ukraine billionaire, a great friend of Western leaders, presses for an expanded war
In late September, Ukrainian billionaire Viktor Pinchuk, son-in-law of Ukraine’s second president Leonid Kuchma, hosted the aforementioned YES forum in Kiev. Pinchuk is known for funding Western politicians, including donating to the Clinton Foundation, maintaining friendly relations with former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and organizing parties for the Western elites when they gather each year in Davos, Switzerland.
At the September forum, Pinchuk said the West should provide Kiev with as many weapons and money as it wants and cater to its requests, since Western countries are unwilling to sacrifice the lives of their own soldiers in fighting Russia. He also wants military aid to be provided without any conditions or reservations, saying that Western fears about the risks of escalation of the conflict with Russia were merely a result of “Kremlin propaganda”. There is nothing to fear, he asserts. Most of Pinchuk’s family relatives live in London in luxury real estate acquired by him over the years.
Without Russia’s defeat, Pinchuk says, war could break out in other regions. “If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, then China, North Korea, and Iran are likely to turn against Taiwan, South Korea, and Israel. The whole world will be drawn into war. The more military support there is for Ukraine, the less risk there will be of escalation, of war between NATO and Russia, and of a global domino effect with the emergence of more and more wars against democracy,” Pinchuk told the forum gathering.
According to him, Ukrainians are the chosen people to show the triumph of freedom and democracy. But he would like Europeans to personally participate in the war with the Russian Federation as well. “When I call Ukrainians the chosen people, many important parallels arise in my mind. I will cite only one: The Pharaoh [Vladimir Putin] must lose, and to achieve this, we must defeat him,” the billionaire concluded.
According to ABC News, former Trump administration official Kellyanne Conway has registered in the United States as a foreign agent representing Victor Pinchuk’s foundation. The same news reports explain, “Pinchuk has also been a prolific donor to the Clinton Foundation, giving tens of millions of dollars to the group over the years.”
‘To win or not to be’
At the YES forum, Pinchuk summarized in Shakespearean language his recommended strategy for Ukraine in its war with Russia: ‘To win or not to be’.
Ukraine legislator Oleksandr Dubinsky, a former ally of Zelensky, commented to his followers on Telegram: “The phrase ‘To win or not to be’ voiced by Pinchuk at the YES gathering is all about eternal war, in which the Ukrainian nation has no right to accept defeat. Although Pinchuk wanted to mix Shakespeare and Churchill in his wording, it sounded more like Hitler in 1945: ‘If the German nation cannot win this war, it must disappear.’ This is exactly the choice Pinchuk and Zelensky are putting before Ukrainians today,” Dubinsky wrote.
In other words, the workers and farmers of Ukraine, who have become the main targets of forced military mobilization, should sacrifice their lives for the preservation of the global world order and the fortunes of Ukraine’s class of billionaires.
A de facto demilitarization of Ukraine
In reality, Ukrainian political scientist Vadym Karasev argues, Ukraine is effectively demilitarizing, both militarily and psychologically. “Firstly, we risk demilitarization from the fighting because we are losing people and equipment. We cannot restore equipment in sufficient quantity because we simply do not have our own capacity to do so, and as for losing people (our soldiers), neither can these be replaced.
“Secondly, there is a demilitarization of consciousness taking place. We see what is happening with the military mobilization [conscription]. There are forced kidnappings taking place because so many citizens do not want to fight. They are not yet militarized and they feel that little can be achieved in this way,” he says.
Moreover, according to estimates from the World Health Organization, nearly 10 million people in Ukraine are suffering severe mental disorders due to the war, or are at risk of doing so.
For Kiev journalism professor Nikita Vasilenko, a simple preservation of the country of Ukraine in some form should be considered a victory. “To preserve the country, we must go for even the most despicable, bastardized peace plan. That is for one simple reason — one more offensive such as the recent one into Kursk, Russia will cost us the remaining elite of the nation. At Kursk, by our count, about 10,000 have already fallen. The Russians’ count of our losses is a much higher number, an immense one as should be expected. Whatever the exact count, these losses were professional troops, consisting of young men who can no longer regenerate and revive the population.”
In response to the requests for peace being increasingly sounded in Ukraine, the editors of the Washington Post are turning to scaring Ukrainians with the specter of a new coup d’état in the event of any peace agreement involving the loss of territory. They cite several Ukrainian military officials to this effect.
Oleksandr Dubinskyy writes that it was Zelensky’s lobbyists who relayed to Western media the thesis voiced by Pinchuk at the YES conference, which was, in turn, drawn from the invited, Ukrainian military leaders in attendance, namely: ‘Peace in exchange for territory in Ukraine will lead to civil war’. Dubinsky writes, “This is nothing more than fear-mongering directed by Zelensky at the Western governments and populations. He is saying, effectively: ‘If you force me to go for a peace settlement, you will get a coup.’ However, a coup is only possible if Zelensky, who has done everything against the interests of Ukraine, remains in power without elections.”
Zelensky and the military hawks in the West who back him are claiming to speak on behalf of the Ukrainian people. But they do not and cannot know the peoples’ views. In the current conditions of martial law, tight media censorship, and ultra-right terror in Ukraine to suppress any expressions of political protest, no accurate survey of Ukrainians’ opinions on social, political, and military matters is possible or even permitted. Moreover, politically savvy people in Ukraine know that speaking one’s mind to sociologists conducting surveys is not a safe thing to do in the country today. It can be done only at considerable risk to one’s personal safety and security.
Elections in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely, until the end of martial law, whenever that may arrive. Zelensky and the Western hawks are seeking all-out to perpetuate the war against Russia. Just as day follows night, those who want to perpetuate today’s war can only achieve this by usurping political power and suppressing any and all public protest and disagreement.ct citizens from terrorist acts is being attacked. But despite its absolute military, technical and financial superiority, the West responds to the blatant bullying of its partners and allies… by holding long public discussions about limiting the force of a possible response. Or even discussing ideas about “how we can collectively surrender in the most humiliating way,” Podolyak continues, equating as innocent victims Ukraine and Israel, which in the past year has killed more civilians than the two armies fighting the Russo-Ukrainian war in more than two and a half years.
In the simple and straightforward world of geopolitics in the Ukrainian President's Office, the solution is always more weapons and more involvement of NATO countries, especially the most powerful of them, the United States. And from his position, increasingly removed from reality, Podolyak wonders why, in media that until now have been completely loyal to the Ukrainian version of events, proposals are beginning to appear that are not entirely in favour of continuing to escalate the war until the final defeat of the common enemy, the Russian Federation. "I do not understand these pessimistic articles about the Donetsk region in various media," Podolyak said in an interview with Die Welt , adding that Russian progress is limited and insisting that it is coming at the cost of enormous casualties. What Andriy Ermak's advisor is hiding is that these advances are taking place in some of the most fortified areas of the front, that they are happening at the cost of a significant wear and tear of the Ukrainian troops as well, and that Russia is approaching key cities for maintaining the integrity of the most important front of this war, that of Donbass. Yesterday, somewhat surprisingly given the rapid progress that it represents, both Russian and Ukrainian sources showed that Russia has already reached the geographical limits of the city of Kurajovo, one of the two key towns for the control of the entire southern and western area of the Donetsk region. Russian troops are also advancing in preparation for the approach to Krasnoarmeysk-Pokrovsk. The fact that they are doing so slowly, advancing in several directions shows a change of tactics, precisely to avoid the stratospheric casualties that the battle for Artyomovsk entailed, although on the part of Ukraine it is being presented as a sign of weakness, which it is not.
Without any interest in keeping with the reality of the moment, in the same interview Podolyak states that “today, we have all the tools to make Russia lose. The fact that the Russian Federation is exhausted is already evident.” This speech contrasts with the growing Western concern about Ukraine’s ability to wage a long-term war of attrition in which Russia remains able to keep its economy afloat – and growing – there is no internal destabilization due to the conflict and military production continues to outstrip Western supply to kyiv. Added to this is the constant concern about the possibility of a Ukrainian collapse due to a lack of troops, which is why appeals continue to recruit men between 20 and 25 years old, a particularly small cohort that Ukraine does not want to sacrifice in the trenches.
“I get calls from American congressmen all the time and they say, ‘We give you weapons, but you say you don’t have enough people. How can you not recruit people under 25? How does that work? ’” said Ukrainian MP Roman Kostenko, arguing in favour of such a mobilisation, which is even more unpopular in Ukraine than the current conscription, which is being opposed by more and more people. In addition to attempts to flee the country or prevent conscription by a part of the military-aged population and attacks on recruitment offices, there are also more and more examples of resistance that end in tragedy. “US politicians are pressuring Ukraine to expand its infamous conscription to the endangered 18-25 demographic because they are running out of older Ukrainians,” journalist Mark Ames wrote on social media in reaction to the news that a 53-year-old man who had already been declared unfit for military service was beaten to death as agents attempted to recruit him.
It is not only the maps of territorial control, macroeconomic or production data or news about mobilization that refute the triumphalist vision that the Office of the President of Ukraine tries to maintain despite the evidence. Even commanders of units at the front allow themselves, anonymously or under their name and photograph, to contradict the official version. “I am not thinking about the 1991 borders at all. Now I am thinking about how not to lose the positions I hold. We have crossed the borders of 2023, then those of 2024 and in three months we will be at those of 2025. And then we will go to the borders of 91, only in the opposite direction,” Kiril Veres, commander of the K-2 battalion of the 54th brigade, has declared in recent hours. It is not the pro-Russian media that see the victory that Zelensky continues to promise as unfeasible, but those who are aware of the situation on the ground.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/12/discu ... -realidad/
Google Translator
*****
From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 12 October 2024) Main points :
- The "Center" group continued to advance deep into the enemy's defences, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 490 servicemen;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost 640 servicemen and a Swedish self-propelled gun in the area of responsibility of the "South" group in 24 hours;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 465 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the Western group in 24 hours;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 110 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the Northern group of forces in 24 hours;
- Fighters of the "East" group improved their tactical situation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 140 servicemen and 11 vehicles;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 soldiers and an ammunition depot due to the actions of the "Dnepr" group;
- The Russian Air Defense Forces shot down 11 HIMARS projectiles and 125 drones in 24 hours.
- The Russian Armed Forces damaged energy infrastructure facilities that supported the operation of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine.
Units of the "East" group of forces improved their tactical position. The 58th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 21st National Guard brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Velyka Novosyolka and Oktyabr of the Donetsk People's Republic.
Three counterattacks of assault groups of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 123rd territorial defense brigade were repelled. The enemy lost up to 140 servicemen and eleven vehicles. An ammunition depot was destroyed .
Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 31st, 118th mechanized, 141st infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 36th marine brigade, the 103rd and 108th territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Kazatskoye in the Kherson region, Kamenskoye, Novodanilovka, Belogorye and Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhia region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen, seven vehicles, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Bogdana" , an 85-mm divisional gun D-44 , and a "Bukovel-AD" electronic warfare station . An ammunition depot was destroyed .
Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups inflicted damage on energy infrastructure facilities that supported the operation of the military-industrial complex, concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 146 areas.
Air defense systems shot down 11 US-made HIMARS rockets and 125 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,544 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,611 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,470 multiple launch rocket systems, 16,048 field artillery pieces and mortars, 27,197 units of special military vehicles.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
******
SITREP 10/10/24: From Bad to Worse for Ukraine Amid New Surge of Russian Advances
Simplicius
Oct 10, 2024
<snip>
On the Front
The situation on the front mirrors the political one for Zelensky—and in fact is the very reason for the latter’s urgency, compelling Zelensky to flit from one continent to the next in pursuit of help like a fly prancing from one turd to another.
The echoes of Ugledar’s fall continue to haunt the AFU in more ways than one. The debacle of the 72nd Brigade’s collapse is only just now being pieced together and understood in full, with articles like the following clarifying the suicide of one of the battalion commanders:
https://militaryland.net/news/the-comma ... d-suicide/
Meanwhile, the 123rd Brigade was supposed to provide relieving cover for the retreating 72nd, and apparently betrayed them, causing an internecine fight resulting in troops from the 123rd being captured by the survivors of the 72nd.
(Videos at link)
Meanwhile, videos have begun to appear of family members’ pleas toward their missing servicemen. Here a daughter of a soldier from Ukraine’s 152nd says hundreds are missing in the Pokrovsk direction: (Video at link.)
Aidar boss Mosiychuk confirms:
On the tactical side, Russian forces have made a few sudden advances in unexpected zones of the frontline. Granted, to play devil’s advocate, the pro-Ukrainian side’s narrative is that these are a last-ditch attempt to take some meaningful land before the full onset of both October Rasputitsa as well as the winter freeze in general. We’ll see if there’s any truth to that. But recall that the main battle of the past year started precisely on October 10th—exactly a year ago today—that of Avdeevka: when the Russian 114th Brigade stormed out of neighboring Krasnogorovka toward the ‘Slag Heap’ en route to both Stepove and the notorious Coke Plant. That battle raged until February with no abatement, neither for rain, nor sleet, nor snow.
So now, we’ve had the usual incremental advances in the known areas: for instance toward Kurakhove, more areas north of Ugledar captured, around Selydove in the Pokrovsk direction—which town is being slowly enveloped in a cauldron:
Then there was the total capture of Tsukuryne in the same direction:
Consolidation and deep advances into Toretsk, which appears nearly 50% captured. As well as more small breakthroughs into Chasov Yar.
New massive chunk of Toretsk captured seen below:
But the big unexpected surprises came in the following directions:
A sudden gambit across the dry reservoir established a beachhead on Kamianske, opposite Russia’s positions south of Zaporozhye city:
The eminent Suriyak, however, claims the AFU expelled the Russian forces thereafter, though it remains uncertain.
The other most surprising was an advance toward long-contested Siversk near the Donetsk-Kharkov border. This too was a source of much infighting, particularly amongst the Ukrainian crowd:
But the short of it is that Russian forces appeared to spring a salient toward here:
The most significant though was an advance southward past recently-captured Sinkovka up in the north, near Kupyansk. Russian forces finally reached Petropavlovka again. You may recall, it was the site of the famous “last stand” battle of Russian troops against Western mercenaries that was amongst the most dramatic and memorably heroic episodes yet captured on film in the entire SMO.
There are many other small advances made in that region, including Vyshneve to the south (circled in yellow) and the whole area circled in red, which is turning everything between there and Sinkovka into a giant cauldron trapped against the Oskil River:
The other big advances came in the Kursk region, where Russia appeared to launch a mini offensive which resulted in the immediate driving back of Ukrainian forces, although early reports of “columns fleeing into Sumy region” were refuted by Russian sources—to the contrary, the AFU is trying to introduce reserves and hold their positions.
As seen above the offensive was primarily carried out by the 155th Marines and 106th Airborne who stormed from Korenovo direction in the northwest, again shrinking the Ukrainian land holdings of Russian territory.
Their total holdings look something like this now (white lines), with the yellow wiggly lines representing what Ukraine held as recently as a week or so ago:
Suriyak official:
In short, their control is rapidly shrinking.
Here two Russian BTR-82As were seen chasing off a Ukrainian tank, after it’s seen firing in the opening of the video, at geolocation: 51.31722474110465, 35.08217306597342
(Video at link.)
Russian Army Begins Breakthrough on Kursk Front: Powerful Assault on Lyubimovka and Attack on Zeleny Shlyakh to Cut Off Ukrainian Armed Forces Group
Today our armored groups unexpectedly attacked and broke through the enemy's defenses in the Kursk border area.
About 30 units of Russian equipment are storming the village of Lyubimovka, wrote media officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "Alex". Russian troops managed to advance and are now consolidating, the fighting continues.
A video has also appeared showing armored personnel carriers of the 155th Marine Brigade attacking and chasing a Ukrainian Armed Forces tank at the entrance to the neighboring settlement of Zeleny Shlyakh from the direction of Korenevo.
Green Way is located in the rear of Lyubimovka. If this village is occupied by Russian troops, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Lyubimovka will be surrounded.
In fact the geolocation of that escapade shows Russian forces operating much farther than ‘officially held’ territory:
Now there is even the news that Ukrainian units have begun slowly withdrawing from Sudzha itself, albeit unconfirmed for now:
Ukrainian Army is gradually withdrawing to the town of Sudzha. Russian Army has entered Zelenyi Shlyakh and Novoivanovka and is approaching Nizhnii Klin from Obukhovka. Reports about the arrival of Russian forces to Sverdlikovo are not correct.
Of course a complement of Ukrainian POWs was taken: (Video at link.)
And here’s what an AFU channel writes from the frontline:
(Much more at link.)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... -worse-for
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The Russian ‘Steamroller’ in Donbas
In yesterday’s discussion with Judge Andrew Napolitano on his youtube channel ‘Judging Freedom’, I was asked to comment on the status of the fighting on the ground in Kursk and in the Donbas.
I did this, making it clear that the Russians are mopping up the remaining stragglers among Ukrainian and NATO forces there now. The main Ukrainian force has been killed and that is why the daily ‘kill’ of the Russians has now dropped from 400 Ukrainians a day to just 100 yesterday.
The Russians put the figure of killed and maimed UkrNazis in Kursk at 21,000 and claim to have destroyed 136 tanks within Kursk apart from other mechanized units and artillery. The border with Ukraine at Kursk province is largely sealed so that no reinforcements or relief can reach those relatively few who have remained.
The Russians claim to have taken back many of the hamlets in Kursk overrun by the Kievan troops at the start of their incursion/invasion. The only substantial town in the Russian territory held by Kiev, Sudzha, best known as the home of the metering station for the gas pipelines running from Russia, across Ukraine, to Europe – Sudzha is now coming under Russian attack and surely will be retaken soon.
As for Donbas, the Russians are advancing along the whole front day by day, taking additional settlements as they pass through. I believe they have captured about 500 square kilometers of Ukrainian held Donbas over the last month, including the critically important fortified city of Uhledar, which is a logistical nexus for Ukrainian supplies to their front line troops. The still bigger logistical hub of Pokrovsk is now within reach and will surely be captured by the Russians in the next few weeks, leaving open to them the largely unfortified lands to the west stretching straight to the Dniepr river.
In reporting all of this, I was saying little more than what you otherwise can hear or read from nearly all of my peers in the Alternative Media, or even on such mainstream media as the internet platforms of the Times of India or the Indian broadcaster WION.
Now I would like to present what no one seems to be saying about the Russian ‘steamroller’ but which is freely available information if you bother to go to Russian state television’s main news programs each day or to the most authoritative political talk show, The Great Game, hosted by Vyacheslav Nikonov. What you see there is the war correspondents’ interviews with Russian soldiers in the field. These reporters are covering all the terrain along the front each day. What you will hear from their interviewees is that the battles are intense as the Russian army moves from settlement to settlement. They storm them after massive artillery and bomb attacks. Then they enter and clear them of Ukrainian mines and lurking snipers. Notwithstanding the preparatory destructive open work, the soldiers tell you that the fighting is fierce in some settlements, proceeding street by street, and house by house.
For their part, the correspondents in their vehicles are on constant lookout for attack drones sent over by the Ukrainians. The Russian artillery and rapid-fire rocket launchers are being moving around all the time to escape counter fire by the Ukrainians.
In a word, this is not a steamroller that any of the cheerleaders in the Alternative Media would be keen to ride. The Russians are not advancing in parade uniforms but in heavily armored fatigues and with greatest caution.
Similarly, a word is essential about what Russian television is showing in the ‘recaptured’ Kursk settlements. They have been largely demolished by artillery fire and Russia’s heavy glide bombs. What I was saying at the start of the Ukrainian invasion when Russia ordered the full evacuation of civilians from the territory occupied by Kievan forces has been proven true. They were evacuated because the entire territory was made a free fire zone by the Russian army in order to ensure that the invaders would have no possibility of defending themselves in houses or other infrastructure as they do systematically in the Donbas towns that the Russians are now storming. The objective in Kursk was clearly to reduce to a bare minimum any losses of life among the Russians in the reconquest.
I have at times made it clear that official Russian television is my main source of information and for this, as should be clear from the above, I make no apologies. Quite the contrary…I ask why my peers are not consulting the same open sources.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/10/11/ ... in-donbas/
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Attack on the decline
October 11, 18:53
Offensives on the wane
I recently expressed an idea in the comments, I will expand a little more fully. Can an army that is on the wane of its power launch an offensive, take territory? Launch an offensive in the Kursk region, in short.
Of course it can. Historical examples here are the Wehrmacht offensive in the Ardennes in 1944 and on Lake Balaton in 1945 (not only the March "Spring Awakening", but also the "Conrads" in January).
The goal of the offensive in the Ardennes (codename "Wacht am Rhein", "Watch on the Rhine" - such a patriotic German song) was quite tangible - the port of Antwerp. Indeed, Antwerp, when the issue with the island of Walcheren at the mouth of the Scheldt was resolved in late autumn 1944, significantly facilitated the supply of the Allied armies on the approaches to Germany. Before that, they were suffocated by the need to drive cargo in a roundabout way by car (Red Ball Express) with a number of ports occupied by German garrisons in "fortress" mode.
I emphasize: this is not a repetition of the "sickle strike" of May 1940. A much simpler and more tangible goal. Field Marshal Model's proposal to launch a local counterattack in this context was noticeably worse. It did not have the same effect as the capture of Antwerp. Which would have forced the Allies to get stuck on the German border for a long time.
Did the Americans uncover the German preparations? They did not. Including due to the fact that "Ultra" intercepts radiograms in a maneuverable battle, but does not intercept telephones on a static front, and maintaining radio silence is the basis of operational camouflage.
However, what do we see in the case of the army "coming from the fair"? Firstly, the operation was prepared for a very long time due to, among other things, the need to accumulate fuel. Because in September the tap with Romania was turned off (by the forces of the 2nd and 3rd Ukrainian) and the allies seriously worked on the synthetic fuel plants.
Secondly, we see that despite all the tricks, Antwerp was far away. It turned out to be only a wedging with a limited result from all points of view. What was the "Antwerp" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Kursk NPP? Probably. We'll find out later.
About Balaton next time. And yes, there is a third question: will there be an operation "Nordwind" and where?
(c) Alexey Isaev
https://t.me/iron_wind/1077 - zinc
The enemy did not achieve the goals with the Kursk NPP and the Lgov-Kurchatov highway and the offensive gradually fizzled out. The consequences are now coming.
But of course, attempts to turn around the bad operational situation by tactical means will continue, mainly with the support of the West.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9433718.html
Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V
Raids
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/13/2024
“Zelensky is finalising the creation of a Ministry of Unity to save Ukraine from demographic disaster,” was the headline in El País this week in an article dealing with the “urgent” measures that the Ukrainian government intends to implement to alleviate the serious demographic situation that the country is suffering. As has been repeated on previous occasions, the issue is common to Russia and Ukraine and has the same origin: the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the loss of population that occurred during the following decade. The situation is not new and was perfectly known to the press, the population and the political class, which has preferred to hide behind the perpetual postponements of the much-delayed census. Maintaining the fiction that the country had a population of more than forty million depended on this. Now, with the exodus that occurred after the Russian invasion, Ukraine can use war as an excuse to justify the loss of population and implement measures to recover those who have left the country since 2022. The Ukrainian president never tires of defining the return of the population - which also includes members of the diaspora, descendants of Ukrainians who were born in other countries - as the wealth of the future, the guarantee that, when peace comes, Ukraine will not only be able to rebuild, but become a prosperous and modern country.
But these exaggerated promises have little to do with the reasons why Kiev is trying to convince its allies to favour the “voluntary” return of the population currently residing as refugees in European countries. In moments of candor, both Zelensky and his entourage have admitted that they need this return for two clear reasons: people capable of fighting must be available to fight on the front, while the rest of the population must return to collaborate in the war effort through work and paying taxes. The population thus becomes an asset that simply acts as a pawn in a situation that is completely beyond its control. Ukraine has postponed the presidential, legislative and local elections indefinitely , thus eliminating all forms of citizen participation in decision-making, which is even more limited in the case of men of fighting age, and apparently obliged to do so.
For many months now, mass attempts to flee the country, actions against recruiting offices and evasion of conscription have been regularly reported by openly pro-Ukrainian media. In addition to the wear and tear of the war and the casualties incurred in these two years - always concealed by the government with the connivance of the press, which until a few weeks ago did not even ask questions - there is the need to exempt certain professions from conscription. Ukraine aspires to increase the number of troops available to the armed forces, but without forgetting the attempt to resume military production on a large scale. In the past, employers have demanded that the government officially exempt workers in these factories from conscription, since the fear of being forcibly conscripted when going to work caused many men not to show up for work. The Ukrainian authorities seem to have understood the problem and these complaints from employers have not been repeated.
However, the need for mobilisation is not decreasing but increasing. The Zelensky government hoped to achieve a major strategic objective with its attack on Kursk and that permission to use Western weapons in Russia would speed up the process to the point where it could dictate to Moscow the terms of surrender. None of that has happened and the situation for kyiv's troops has become more complicated in Donbass, where casualties remain a mystery but the intensity of the battle suggests they must be high. A clear sign of Ukraine's difficulties in replenishing its ranks is the increasingly public use of forced conscription. Attempts to avoid mobilisation by force are not massive, but they are dangerous enough that some offices have been given permission to shoot to kill if recruiting agents feel in danger.
The difficulties in recruiting soldiers were highlighted on Friday evening, when the Ukrainian authorities carried out mass raids in different places across the country, especially in the capital. Since 24 February 2022, every act of normality has been presented by the media as an epic display of Ukrainian courage. The parties that continue to take place every weekend in Odessa or the fact that high-end restaurants in Kiev remain full every day have been considered heroic. The same goes for concerts, a sign of normality that is also an opportunity for the authorities, aware that large gatherings of people are not so common.
Friday's raid on a concert in the country's capital was not the only action of this nature that has been carried out in Ukraine. The agents already showed up on the day of a small LGBT Pride event. Much to the delight of right-wing extremists like Maksym Zhoryn, who mocked, “Don’t you want equality?” the authorities easily identified a whole group of people, taking advantage of the fact that the attendees believed themselves protected by the state, which was particularly keen to appear modern, European and tolerant. Neither the organisers nor those taking part in the event expected to have to face not only the far right, which had already announced a counter-demonstration, but also recruiting agents.
The distinctive feature of Friday's raid, during which officers forcibly rounded up several people and transported them away in vans, and clashes ensued, was that it was a concert by Okean Elzy, the band of MP Vyacheslav Vakarchuk, a well-known figure in both the political and cultural spheres. Like Zelensky, Vakarchuk, who emerged on the political scene at the same time as the current president, was to revolutionise the Ukrainian way of life, turning the country into the liberal paradise that both figures aspire to. His party, Golos, was to be the centrist beacon guiding Ukrainian politics towards a level with that of Europe, leaving behind the personalist parties that had marked the previous three decades. With the postulates of the International Monetary Fund as the main economic ideology and Atlanticism as the only international conviction, Vakarchuk's role was completely eclipsed by the rise of Zelensky and the politician and singer has not been able to reinvent himself during the war as people like Serhiy Sternenko have done, who has managed to create for himself the character of an activist with aspirations to become a think-tanker . Little remains of the Vakarchuk that Francis Fukuyama claimed should be president of Ukraine.
As a socially and culturally important figure, belonging to an influential family and whose father was a minister in Yushchenko's government, Vakarchuk was expected to make at least a statement about the incidents that occurred following his concert, where several people were forcibly taken to the recruiting offices. The group's social networks have been filled with messages condemning the singer's silence, who has avoided making any comments. In favour of continuing the war until final victory, Vakarchuk cannot allow himself to criticise the mobilisation, even that carried out by force, nor to publicly declare himself on the side of the authorities at the expense of his followers.
In the face of Vakarchuk’s cowardly silence, those who advocate an even tougher mobilization are once again rejoicing. “Just mobilization is exactly like this: when people are taken not only from small villages and towns, but also from big cities where people go to concerts and restaurants,” Maksym Zhoryn wrote yesterday, commenting on a video in which a young man tries to get away from police officers who try to force him into a vehicle. Zhoryn, deputy commander of the Third Assault Brigade and a man very close to Andriy Biletsky, is thus using the anti-elite language so common among the far right, whose concern is not the population, but simply having enough cannon fodder to continue their project. Here too, the position of the far right is confused with that of the state.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/13/redadas/
Google Translator
******
From Cassad' Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Ministry of Defense Summary (as of October 13, 2024) Key Points:
Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 40 servicemen and 4 guns in the Liptsov and Vovchansk directions;
— The Russian Armed Forces have hit the infrastructure of a military airfield and warehouses of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles;
— Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 615 servicemen and a warehouse in the area of responsibility of the South group;
— Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 510 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the West group;
— Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 130 people in the area of responsibility of the East group;
— Over the past 24 hours, Russian air defense has shot down five HIMARS shells, two Neptune missiles, and 36 UAVs.
Units of the "East" group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the manpower and equipment of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Dobrovolye of the Donetsk People's Republic and Malinovka of the Zaporizhia region. Three counterattacks of assault groups of the 72nd Mechanized, 152nd Jaeger Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade were repelled.
The enemy's losses amounted to 130 servicemen, a tank, an infantry fighting vehicle, three cars and a Polish-made 155 mm self-propelled artillery unit "Krab".
Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the formations of the 141st Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 39th Coastal Defense Brigade , the 37th Marine Brigade and the 124th Territorial Defense Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Shlyakhovoe, Nikolskoye, Prydniprovskoye, Tokarevka in the Kherson region, Novoandriyevka and Kamenskoye in the Zaporizhia region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 50 servicemen, five vehicles, and a 122 mm howitzer D-30 . A US-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery station and two military equipment depots were destroyed.
Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile troops and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups damaged the infrastructure of a military airfield , unmanned aerial vehicle depots , as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 138 areas.
Air defense systems shot down five US-made HIMARS rockets , two long-range Neptune guided missiles and 36 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,580 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,619 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,472 multiple launch rocket systems, 16,106 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 27,230 units of special military vehicles.
https://t.me/mod_russia/44454
Google Translator
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Kiev’s New Victory Plan: Endless War
Posted by Internationalist 360° on October 11, 2024
Dmitri Kovalevich
Just as day follows night, those who want to perpetuate today’s war can only achieve this by usurping political power and suppressing any and all public protest and disagreement.
In the second half of September, Ukrainian authorities have been particularly active with foreign policy, against a backdrop of uncertainty over the outcome of the elections to take place in the United States on November 5. Americans will vote for a president on that date, and also for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate.
The continuation by Ukraine of its military operations against Russia is essential to Kiev’s continued hold on power, but Ukraine is completely dependent financially and militarily on the United States and European Union. Volodymyr Zelensky, whose five-year electoral mandate as president Ukraine expired in April 2024, is under increased pressure by US legislators to present some kind of coherent ‘victory plan’ with dates, figures, and deadlines that can be sold to a largely uninformed but increasingly skeptical US electorate. A ‘plan’ is needed in order for the unconditional support that Zelensky has received to date from the Western powers may continue.
According to the Washington Post on September 13, Ukraine has prepared a new ‘victory plan’ that is near-ready to present to its Western government sponsors. The newspaper reported that Zelensky was to travel to the United States in late September to meet with President Joe Biden. Zelensky admits his ‘plan’ would not end the war against Russia outright, but “it would help” Ukraine and NATO in their war efforts.
Zelensky said he would like to meet Donald Trump while in New York in order that his ‘victory plan’ (consisting of stepped-up military assistance and unconditional support to Ukraine by the Western powers) has the support of whoever is elected president on November 5.
A ‘victory plan’ by Ukraine?
The Ukrainian public doesn’t know much about the ‘victory plan’, previously termed a ‘peace plan’ by Zelensky in an earlier variant. But already the ‘plan’ is attracting a lot of criticism, both inside and outside the country.
Zelensky presented a vague outline of his proposal at the annual conference in Kiev on September 13, 14 of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) foundation, an agency created by wealthy Ukraine oligarch Viktor Pinchuk in 2004. It meets annually in Kiev.
There are a total of five points in Zelensky’s ‘plan’, according to Ukrainian officials. “Four of these are what we need, and one addresses the post-war situation,” Zelensky declared in early September, though he declined to disclose details. Ukrainian media is reporting that the cornerstone of the ‘victory plan’ is a demand that the Western powers provide Ukraine with longer-range missiles that would allow it to strike deeper into Russian territory and, crucially, permission to use them.
The Ukrainian Telegram channel Rubicon writes that Kiev has been actively requesting permission for such strikes, not so much for military purposes but to gain advantages in information and psychological operations. In particular, a strike on some crowded gathering in the center of Moscow would be considered a victory for Kiev because of the public panic it would sow, even if from a military point of view it would have zero value.
According to the writers at Rubicon, such blows by Kiev could be truly destructive to the morale of Russian society and would inevitably lower the level of trust of the Russian people in their political and military leaders. Or at least, that the writers and Kiev itself hope for. Zelensky apparently believes in the military/political value of large-scale provocations against civilians in Russia, resembling, for example, the gruesome cyberattacks conducted by “Israel” in Lebanon on September 17 and 18. Those attacks killed dozens of people and injured thousands, including many children and many people losing one or both eyes.
The new ‘victory plan’ replaces the earlier, so-called peace formula which Kiev first promoted in late 2022. This project, which was essentially a proposal for Russia’s surrender, rather predictably failed to find support in the countries of the Global South.
Zelensky’s new ‘victory plan’ is in reality no plan at all. It consists largely of measures needed for the regime and its military to survive the current, steadily progressing offensive by Russia in the Donbass region. That is, they are seeking to buy more time in order to forcibly conscript yet more foot soldiers into the Ukrainian army, Ukrainian political analyst Vadym Karasev told the Politnavigator news outlet on September 17.
And NATO membership?
One of the points of Zelensky’s new ‘victory plan’ is for NATO to extend a formal invitation to Ukraine to join it. Outgoing NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told a farewell event organized in his honor in Germany on September 19 that there will be no peace in Ukraine until and unless Kiev becomes a NATO member. But he added that NATO countries currently have no consensus on conditions and dates for such an invitation.
In a recent, op-ed commentary, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson once again stated his strong support for NATO membership for Ukraine.
In early September, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration, Olha Stefanyshyna, boldly declared that Ukraine should only join NATO on the condition that its 1991 borders be recognized and enshrined. Many other Ukrainian officials still voice this forlorn hope. This is highly provocative to Russian ears and also to the citizens of former Ukraine territories, notably Crimea and Donbass. There, the population has endured more than 10 years of military threats and economic sanctions and blockades by Ukraine following the violent, far-right coup in Kiev in February 2014.
In particular, the citizens of the Donbass region (which Russia recognizes as the Russian republics of Lugansk and Donetsk) have endured more than 10 years of a cruel civil war waged by post-2014-coup Kiev with the backing of the NATO countries.
Crimea also suffered greatly from economic and all other forms of sanctions beginning in 2014. It remains a declared target of Ukrainian military attacks, but the peninsula was spared the direct military intervention by Ukraine into Donbass.
No going back for the new citizens of the Russian Federation
As a result of the 2014 coup and its aftermath, the citizens of Crimea and Donbass have voted overwhelmingly to join the Russian Federation. The final, definitive vote in Donbass took place soon after Russia began its military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022.
Crimea’s status was settled in the referendum vote of March 15, 2014. All polling since then, including polls conducted by Western and pro-Western polling agencies, have confirmed high rates of satisfaction with that vote by the residents of the peninsula.
Three of the principal goals of Russian diplomacy and of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine are to end Kiev’s civil war in Donbass, to end any challenges to Crimea’s status as a constituent of the Russian Federation, and to guarantee the future security of the two territories. (These would also apply to the ‘new territories’ of the Russian Federation, as they are called in Russia, of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya – former Ukraine oblasts).
The votes in Crimea and Donbass to join the Russian Federation amounted to a ‘rejoining’ of Russia, considering that both entities were joined with Russia not so long ago some 70 years ago and never accepted separation from it in 1990-91. Crimea long held an autonomous status in the Soviet Union until it was joined to Ukraine in 1954 through an administrative decision of the Soviet Union government of the day. Donbass residents never voted until recently on which country they would wish to join.
A perpetual proxy war by the West
Ukraine continues to be driven into a vicious circle of perpetual, proxy war at the behest of the NATO countries. Zelensky’s new ‘plan’ to ‘win’ that war consists of drawing the NATO countries more directly into the conflict with Russia, with weapons supplies and a future NATO membership for Kiev as leading edges. But NATO membership for Ukraine is impossible to imagine without a military defeat of Russia, and the only way to achieve that, according to Kiev ideologues, is to escalate, using the advanced weaponry that the NATO countries would provide.
In other words, the ‘peace plan’ is a plan for military escalation whose outcome is entirely unpredictable and could spark further and unthinkable military escalation.
Andriy Yermak, the head of the office of President Zelensky, emphasizes the necessity for the Western powers to participate more directly in the war against Russia. He told a September 9 report on the English-language website of that office, addressing the people and governments of the Western powers: “It’s not just about our freedom, independence and territorial integrity. This is also about you and your countries. Because this war is a test for the world. All of us – in Latin America, Africa, and Asia – want to live in a safe world, where rules and international law prevail, not one where whoever is strong, whoever is big, has all the rights.”
Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch often draws parallels between modern Ukraine and “Israel”. Both are militarized, pro-Western states that must constantly be at war in order to avoid defeat and collapse at the hands of those whose territories they occupy illegally. Kushch writes that Netanyahu goes to war even as he talks about ‘peace’ because his strategy is to drag the US into a major regional war, aiming to crush Iran, the only large country in the Middle East that is today able and prepared to stand up to “Israel” and its US and European backers.
“Netanyahu will not stop. He could be replaced through a political process, but as long as the war is going on, that is impossible. Any ‘intermediate’ resolution of “Israel’s” conflict with the Palestinian people is, for him, akin to political death. Looking at him, one can even formulate the maxim of his policy, ‘War is power. Power is life. The end of war equals the loss of power. The loss of power equals the loss of political life, at a minimum,’ the Ukrainian economist paraphrases.
The same formula of perpetual war with the prospect of escalating into a global war also applies in Ukraine. For Zelensky, it is exactly the same — the end of the war will mean the loss of power and political death not only for him but also for the tens of thousands of corrupt, Ukrainian officials who have enriched themselves since 2014 thanks to Western aid and who wish this to continue.
The Western, imperialist countries also benefit from the continuation of the war in Ukraine. The Financial Times reported on September 11 that according to a spending watchdog it cites, much of the military aid the UK has given to Ukraine has consisted of old equipment such as boots that would otherwise have to be thrown away. Military gear that was “often due to be scrapped or replaced” has been prioritized by the UK Ministry of Defense because it is deemed to have “immediate military value” to Ukraine. But it so happens that sending such equipment to Kiev also “reduced waste or costs relating to disposal”.
Other Western supporters have also given aging equipment to Kiev. In one recent US example, ten military transport vehicles ostensibly worth more than $7 million had a combined book value of zero. In other words, this trafficking of used military equipment can be extremely profitable for the West. Much of that traffic consists of selling on credit to Ukraine what amounts to scrap metal that would otherwise cost the United States and Great Britain considerable funds for disposal.
Former Ukrainian MP and ultra-nationalist Igor Mosiychuk says that Ukrainians are simply being thrown into the cauldron of war similar to coal being shoveled into a furnace. “We are given aid and we are given weapons so that we can continue effective defense, but not enough to stop the enemy or win the war. Our nation is being used like coal or charcoal to fry the Russian Federation.”
Ukraine billionaire, a great friend of Western leaders, presses for an expanded war
In late September, Ukrainian billionaire Viktor Pinchuk, son-in-law of Ukraine’s second president Leonid Kuchma, hosted the aforementioned YES forum in Kiev. Pinchuk is known for funding Western politicians, including donating to the Clinton Foundation, maintaining friendly relations with former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and organizing parties for the Western elites when they gather each year in Davos, Switzerland.
At the September forum, Pinchuk said the West should provide Kiev with as many weapons and money as it wants and cater to its requests, since Western countries are unwilling to sacrifice the lives of their own soldiers in fighting Russia. He also wants military aid to be provided without any conditions or reservations, saying that Western fears about the risks of escalation of the conflict with Russia were merely a result of “Kremlin propaganda”. There is nothing to fear, he asserts. Most of Pinchuk’s family relatives live in London in luxury real estate acquired by him over the years.
Without Russia’s defeat, Pinchuk says, war could break out in other regions. “If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, then China, North Korea, and Iran are likely to turn against Taiwan, South Korea, and Israel. The whole world will be drawn into war. The more military support there is for Ukraine, the less risk there will be of escalation, of war between NATO and Russia, and of a global domino effect with the emergence of more and more wars against democracy,” Pinchuk told the forum gathering.
According to him, Ukrainians are the chosen people to show the triumph of freedom and democracy. But he would like Europeans to personally participate in the war with the Russian Federation as well. “When I call Ukrainians the chosen people, many important parallels arise in my mind. I will cite only one: The Pharaoh [Vladimir Putin] must lose, and to achieve this, we must defeat him,” the billionaire concluded.
According to ABC News, former Trump administration official Kellyanne Conway has registered in the United States as a foreign agent representing Victor Pinchuk’s foundation. The same news reports explain, “Pinchuk has also been a prolific donor to the Clinton Foundation, giving tens of millions of dollars to the group over the years.”
‘To win or not to be’
At the YES forum, Pinchuk summarized in Shakespearean language his recommended strategy for Ukraine in its war with Russia: ‘To win or not to be’.
Ukraine legislator Oleksandr Dubinsky, a former ally of Zelensky, commented to his followers on Telegram: “The phrase ‘To win or not to be’ voiced by Pinchuk at the YES gathering is all about eternal war, in which the Ukrainian nation has no right to accept defeat. Although Pinchuk wanted to mix Shakespeare and Churchill in his wording, it sounded more like Hitler in 1945: ‘If the German nation cannot win this war, it must disappear.’ This is exactly the choice Pinchuk and Zelensky are putting before Ukrainians today,” Dubinsky wrote.
In other words, the workers and farmers of Ukraine, who have become the main targets of forced military mobilization, should sacrifice their lives for the preservation of the global world order and the fortunes of Ukraine’s class of billionaires.
A de facto demilitarization of Ukraine
In reality, Ukrainian political scientist Vadym Karasev argues, Ukraine is effectively demilitarizing, both militarily and psychologically. “Firstly, we risk demilitarization from the fighting because we are losing people and equipment. We cannot restore equipment in sufficient quantity because we simply do not have our own capacity to do so, and as for losing people (our soldiers), neither can these be replaced.
“Secondly, there is a demilitarization of consciousness taking place. We see what is happening with the military mobilization [conscription]. There are forced kidnappings taking place because so many citizens do not want to fight. They are not yet militarized and they feel that little can be achieved in this way,” he says.
Moreover, according to estimates from the World Health Organization, nearly 10 million people in Ukraine are suffering severe mental disorders due to the war, or are at risk of doing so.
For Kiev journalism professor Nikita Vasilenko, a simple preservation of the country of Ukraine in some form should be considered a victory. “To preserve the country, we must go for even the most despicable, bastardized peace plan. That is for one simple reason — one more offensive such as the recent one into Kursk, Russia will cost us the remaining elite of the nation. At Kursk, by our count, about 10,000 have already fallen. The Russians’ count of our losses is a much higher number, an immense one as should be expected. Whatever the exact count, these losses were professional troops, consisting of young men who can no longer regenerate and revive the population.”
In response to the requests for peace being increasingly sounded in Ukraine, the editors of the Washington Post are turning to scaring Ukrainians with the specter of a new coup d’état in the event of any peace agreement involving the loss of territory. They cite several Ukrainian military officials to this effect.
Oleksandr Dubinskyy writes that it was Zelensky’s lobbyists who relayed to Western media the thesis voiced by Pinchuk at the YES conference, which was, in turn, drawn from the invited, Ukrainian military leaders in attendance, namely: ‘Peace in exchange for territory in Ukraine will lead to civil war’. Dubinsky writes, “This is nothing more than fear-mongering directed by Zelensky at the Western governments and populations. He is saying, effectively: ‘If you force me to go for a peace settlement, you will get a coup.’ However, a coup is only possible if Zelensky, who has done everything against the interests of Ukraine, remains in power without elections.”
Zelensky and the military hawks in the West who back him are claiming to speak on behalf of the Ukrainian people. But they do not and cannot know the peoples’ views. In the current conditions of martial law, tight media censorship, and ultra-right terror in Ukraine to suppress any expressions of political protest, no accurate survey of Ukrainians’ opinions on social, political, and military matters is possible or even permitted. Moreover, politically savvy people in Ukraine know that speaking one’s mind to sociologists conducting surveys is not a safe thing to do in the country today. It can be done only at considerable risk to one’s personal safety and security.
Elections in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely, until the end of martial law, whenever that may arrive. Zelensky and the Western hawks are seeking all-out to perpetuate the war against Russia. Just as day follows night, those who want to perpetuate today’s war can only achieve this by usurping political power and suppressing any and all public protest and disagreement.
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/10/ ... dless-war/
US Navy Was at Scene of Nord Stream Blasts: Danish Media
October 11, 2024
The wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge operating in the Baltic Sea on September 3, 2022. Photo: AP.
According to Politiken, US warships were operating in the region with their transponders turned off.
Prior to the explosions that destroyed the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea, US Navy ships were present at the location, according to a local harbormaster quoted in the Danish newspaper Politiken.
The Nord Stream 2 pipelines, a major infrastructure project aimed at delivering natural gas from Russia to Europe, were targeted in an act of sabotage in September 2022, with Moscow pointing fingers at the West or Ukraine.
In August, The Wall Street Journal reported that Ukrainian businessmen had funded the attack on the project, although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had ordered to halt the attack at the CIA’s request.
Russia, however, insisted that the reports shared by WSJ were a mere tactic to divert attention from the actual perpetrators, saying its findings were improbable. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov affirmed that Russian Intelligence is certain that major states were involved in the sabotage.
Despite being published on September 26, Politiken’s article received little attention. But on Tuesday, it reappeared on X when Glenn Greenwald and other well-known independent journalists repeated the claims.
According to the story, American warships were operating in the region east of the Danish island of Bornholm with their transponders turned off.
The article included statements from John Anker Nielsen, the harbormaster of the Danish port of Christianso, which lies near Bornholm. He stated that he had opted to publish information on the September 2022 events, despite originally being “not allowed to say a thing” about them.
According to Nielsen, he initiated a rescue mission in the region four or five days before the Nord Stream blasts after noticing ships with their transponders turned off and presuming an emergency.
However, once Danish rescuers neared the site, they discovered that the warships in issue were US Navy ships, according to Nielsen. According to the harbormaster, the Naval Command then instructed Nielsen and his colleagues to turn back.
Russia says Nord Stream investigators misleading probe, US deflects
Russian Ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, stated on Friday that those responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines may be attempting to mislead investigators to conceal their involvement.
During a UN Security Council meeting, he stated, “There is another explanation as to why, of late, we’ve seen more and more far-fetched versions of what happened, and that’s simply that those who ordered and executed this crime are trying to cover their tracks and to point the investigation in the wrong direction.”
Nebenzia also remarked that until the investigations are complete, these parties may continue to hinder the UN Security Council’s efforts to take action.
He further urged the resumption of investigations to keep the world free from energy threats, saying, “If we want this infrastructure to be free from danger, the terrorist attack targeting the Nord Stream pipeline should be investigated.”
However, a US diplomat was quick to claim that no evidence exists to prove the United States’ involvement in the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage.
“There is no shred of evidence of US involvement and there never will be, because the United States was not involved.”
He further deflected from the topic, saying it was not an urgent matter for the council.
https://orinocotribune.com/us-navy-was- ... ish-media/
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Ukraine Weekly Update
11th October 2024
Dr. Rob Campbell
Oct 11, 2024
<snip>
Ukraine Mobilisation Problems
19th Century ‘recruiters’ for the Royal Navy
The planned Ukrainian mobilisation has managed to recruit less than half what was expected and hoped for. Recruitment to the TCC (the ‘recruiters’) has dried up completely, probably due the hatred ordinary Ukrainians have for these people. According to a report from a Ukrainian source, many more Ukrainians are accepting mobilisation but are going home after being sent to the front. Apparently, the TCC will not bother them once they return home. Yet 81% of Ukrainians still believe they can beat Russia with Western assistance, according to a survey.
Foreign Officers Can Join Army
The Verkhovna Rada has passed a law which will allow foreigners to be officers in the Ukrainian Army. This comes as no surprise given the fact that Ukraine has lost most of its officers and will need NATO replacements.
Zelensky - ‘Gimme the Missiles Now!’
Apparently, Zelensky has spoken to New NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressing his annoyance that he hasn’t been given the long range missiles to kill civilians in Moscow. He is losing patience, according to this report.
In another interview, he explained the Kursk adventure: ‘The Kursk operation motivates those who give us weapons’, he said. In other words, Kursk is all about PR, which will anger many.
Z Nominated For the Nobel Peace Prize
In the Orwellian world of a falling Empire defeat is victory, villains are heroes and war is peace. Barack Obama, who took the US into more wars than any other US president was rewarded with the Nobel Peace Prize and now the once great Z, who vowed to bring peace to Ukraine but brought war instead was nominated for the Prize. He didn’t win.
<snip>
Bezugla - She’s Back!
Maryana Bezugla has got the bit between her teeth and will not let go. Recently, she delivered several salvoes against poor General Syrsky including:
As the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, you have only exacerbated the degeneracy of the highest military command and may go down in history in disgrace.
The recent loss of another two Patriot Systems, she said, is due to the:
absence of a system, which the current generals are simply unable to build due to their IQ, lack of desire and corruption.
Today she’s attacking Syrsky, but ten months ago it was Zaluzhny!
I had forgotten that Maryana was involved in some controversy last November, which I reported on in the first Update for December. At that time, she was very critical of the fact that Zaluzhny had not come up with a ‘plan’. She also called for changes in the organisational structures of the armed forces. You can read more here. Maryana has a medical degree which had a military and organisational/management aspect and she served a government internship which gave her a qualification in the organisation and management of healthcare. So, she is an organiser and maybe she can recognise poor organisation when she sees it. I have no idea whether she is being used or not by some faction or other. But I’d like to believe that this is the case of someone who is confident in her abilities and is just sticking to her guns in slamming what she sees as shoddy work.
Military Mutiny?
Oleg Soskin, former adviser to a previous Ukrainian President, believes that a military mutiny is imminent because soldiers will not tolerate the abuse inflicted upon them. The sacrificial destruction of the 72nd Brigade at Ugledar served as a lesson, he said. The soldiers will come with weapons to use against those responsible:
Now you are speeding in an uncontrolled vehicle straight toward the station 'rebellion'—harsh, bloody, and merciless.
HIMARS Defeated
According to a Ukrainian source, the Russians have reduced the effectiveness of HIMARS systems by 90%. The source, which quotes a report by two retired American servicemen who have visited Ukraine, also claims that any innovations the Ukrainians develop on the battlefields are counteracted by the Russians within weeks.
<snip>
Ukraine Used Chemical Weapons in Kursk
I have reported Ukraine’s use of chemical weapons on a number of occasions previously and it continues to use them. On Monday, 7th October, Chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov advised that the Ukrainians had used chemical weapons in Sudzha (Kursk) back in August. These took the form of smoke shells as part of 155mm cluster munitions and are known to have contained chlorine. They were part of a batch of 3,800 shells supplied by the West to Ukraine in September 2023. You can read more at Tass or you can get more detail on the Russian MoD Telegram channel.
Polish Mercenaries Murder Russian Civilians in Kursk
US based private mercenary group in Kursk
Residents of Sudzha in Kursk are claiming that Polish mercenaries murdered a group of civilians during their ‘incursion’. The soldiers rounded up old people and the young and shot them in front of everyone. This is not the first report I’ve seen of atrocities in Kursk, including murder, rape, abductions and holding people in ‘camps’. You can read more at RT. According to Sputnik, there are large quantities of foreign mercenaries involved in the terrorist attack on Kursk.
<snip>
Kursk
On the 10th October, the Russians broke through Lyubimovka and were attacking to the rear at Zeleny Shlyakh. If this latter is taken, Ukrainians in the former will be cut off. A Ukrainian source reported that Syrsky does not have the reserves to prevent this from happening.
On October 11th, the Military Chronicle gave this short report:
It is reported that during the offensive in the last two days, Russian units liberated five settlements between Korenevo and Sudzha, at least two battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were surrounded. The enemy command hastily transfers the 47th brigade to Lyubimovka, which has been swarming under the strikes of the Aerospace Forces on the border with the Glushkovsky district for two weeks.
The Ukrainians are also on the verge of defeat at Ogovka, according to Slavyangrad. Weeb Union provides a Sitrep here. The consensus view among commentators is that the Kursk front is collapsing fast.
Kharkov
Fighting is still going on in Volchansk as the Russians attack Ukrainians entrenched near the flour mill in the western part of the town.
Kupyansk
By the end of the week, the Russians were able to advance 1 km from Kotlyarovka to the Oskol River and take up new positions on the Kupyansk-Svatovo highway. One report suggests that the Russians have entered the village of Petropavlivka (close to Kupyansk).
Seversk
Chasiv Yar
Toretsk
By the end of the week, fighting continued in the centre of Toretsk and around the Tstentralnaya mine. The Ukrainians still cling to the waste heaps. The Russians are also fighting north of Novgorodskoye, according to the Majors.
Pokrovsk
Marat Khairullin is claiming that the Ukrainians were using civilians as human shields in Pokrovsk anticipating a frontal assault on the city. But when it became clear that the Russians intended to surround the city, the Ukrainians began killing civilians so they could blame the Russians for the atrocity. You can read more here. I have no confirmation of this but Khairullin has been reporting such atrocities for a while. By the end of the week, the Russians had made advances towards Lysivka (not on map) and to the south of Selidovo.
Selidove
By the end of the week, the Russians had advanced in the western outskirts of Tsukurino and had progressed more than a kilometer from the southern outskirts of Selidovo towards the village of Vishnevoye. It is claimed that the Ukrainians are preparing to leave Selidovo. Fighting continues in the direction of Ostrovskoye, near Katerinovka (Yekaterinovka) and in Maksimilyanovka.
Uhledar
By the 10th October, the Russians were advancing north of Uhledar having beaten off Ukrainian counter-attacks. According to a resident of Uhledar who never abandoned the city: ‘We waited for you for two years and seven months. And now we feel light in our hearts, having seen you." You can listen to her on this Telegram Channel. By the end of the week fighting continued only in Bogoyavlenka.
Zaporozhye
I have seen reports that the Russians are building up forces in the Orekhov - Rabotinsky directions according to Voloshin, a representative of the Southern Defence Forces. On the 4th October, 400 attacks were made on Zaporozhye in just 24 hours: these are expected to intensify. By the end of the week, heavy fighting was reported in Kamenskoye.
Kherson
Fighting continues around the village of Dnepryany where the Russians are using mortars while the Ukrainians are deploying kamikaze drones.
(More at link.)
https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukra ... update-6c7
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On the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kursk region
October 12, 14:11
On the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kursk region
In the Kursk region.
There are good results in the area of:
1. Olgovka
2. Lyubimovka.
3. Novoivanovka
4. Malaya Loknya.
5. In the eastern part of the Sudzhansky district.
The published maps are now really lagging behind the events, but this is even good - there is no need to rush with victorious reports, people are working and will soon present good results.
Regarding the Olgovka area, there really is an unknown number of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers wandering in the forests there, who retreated from their positions, some are being caught or they remain there forever.
At the same time, it would be a mistake to say that the enemy is running and giving up positions everywhere. On the contrary, where it can, it resists and tries to bring in reinforcements, which is actively hindered by our drones, causing significant losses in people and equipment every day. At the same time, in a number of areas, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not hesitate to launch counterattacks in order to try to hamper our active actions. So, there is no point in underestimating the enemy and pouring champagne in advance.
The trends are favorable for us now in the Kursk region, we act primarily with skill, but there is still a lot of work ahead.
The broadcast of military operations, as usual, is here https://t.me/boris_rozhin (if anyone is interested, subscribe)
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9435047.html
Attack on the decline
October 11, 18:53
Offensives on the wane
I recently expressed an idea in the comments, I will expand a little more fully. Can an army that is on the wane of its power launch an offensive, take territory? Launch an offensive in the Kursk region, in short.
Of course it can. Historical examples here are the Wehrmacht offensive in the Ardennes in 1944 and on Lake Balaton in 1945 (not only the March "Spring Awakening", but also the "Conrads" in January).
The goal of the offensive in the Ardennes (codename "Wacht am Rhein", "Watch on the Rhine" - such a patriotic German song) was quite tangible - the port of Antwerp. Indeed, Antwerp, when the issue with the island of Walcheren at the mouth of the Scheldt was resolved in late autumn 1944, significantly facilitated the supply of the Allied armies on the approaches to Germany. Before that, they were suffocated by the need to drive cargo in a roundabout way by car (Red Ball Express) with a number of ports occupied by German garrisons in "fortress" mode.
I emphasize: this is not a repetition of the "sickle strike" of May 1940. A much simpler and more tangible goal. Field Marshal Model's proposal to launch a local counterattack in this context was noticeably worse. It did not have the same effect as the capture of Antwerp. Which would have forced the Allies to get stuck on the German border for a long time.
Did the Americans uncover the German preparations? They did not. Including due to the fact that "Ultra" intercepts radiograms in a maneuverable battle, but does not intercept telephones on a static front, and maintaining radio silence is the basis of operational camouflage.
However, what do we see in the case of the army "coming from the fair"? Firstly, the operation was prepared for a very long time due to, among other things, the need to accumulate fuel. Because in September the tap with Romania was turned off (by the forces of the 2nd and 3rd Ukrainian) and the allies seriously worked on the synthetic fuel plants.
Secondly, we see that despite all the tricks, Antwerp was far away. It turned out to be only a wedging with a limited result from all points of view. What was the "Antwerp" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Kursk NPP? Probably. We'll find out later.
About Balaton next time. And yes, there is a third question: will there be an operation "Nordwind" and where?
(c) Alexey Isaev
https://t.me/iron_wind/1077 - zinc
The enemy did not achieve the goals with the Kursk NPP and the Lgov-Kurchatov highway and the offensive gradually fizzled out. The consequences are now coming.
But of course, attempts to turn around the bad operational situation by tactical means will continue, mainly with the support of the West.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9433718.html
Boris Johnson is trying to shirk responsibility
October 13, 12:41
Boris Johnson is trying to shirk responsibility
Boris Johnson refuses to take responsibility for the fact that the war did not end in March-April 2022, although it is well known from several Ukrainian and Western sources that it was Johnson who insisted that peace was not needed and said "Let's fight".
And everything suited Johnson in 2022 and even in 2023, when the West seriously hoped first for an economic, and then a military defeat of Russia.
But now the situation is different - it was not possible to isolate Russia diplomatically (the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan will once again confirm this), it was not possible to destroy the Russian economy (Russia restructured its energy supplies and maintained GDP growth against the backdrop of growth problems in Europe), and at the front, Russia firmly holds the operational and strategic initiative and methodically recaptures territory and populated areas.
And the question of responsibility arises for the fact that everything came here. Everything is clear with the cocaine Fuhrer, they will try to blame everything on him. But Johnson no longer wants to be in this company. Therefore, like a cheapskate, he tries to take back his words and pretend that he had nothing to do with the liquidation of Ukraine within its former borders and the hundreds of thousands of murdered citizens of the former Ukraine.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9436588.html
Google Translator
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/13/2024
“Zelensky is finalising the creation of a Ministry of Unity to save Ukraine from demographic disaster,” was the headline in El País this week in an article dealing with the “urgent” measures that the Ukrainian government intends to implement to alleviate the serious demographic situation that the country is suffering. As has been repeated on previous occasions, the issue is common to Russia and Ukraine and has the same origin: the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the loss of population that occurred during the following decade. The situation is not new and was perfectly known to the press, the population and the political class, which has preferred to hide behind the perpetual postponements of the much-delayed census. Maintaining the fiction that the country had a population of more than forty million depended on this. Now, with the exodus that occurred after the Russian invasion, Ukraine can use war as an excuse to justify the loss of population and implement measures to recover those who have left the country since 2022. The Ukrainian president never tires of defining the return of the population - which also includes members of the diaspora, descendants of Ukrainians who were born in other countries - as the wealth of the future, the guarantee that, when peace comes, Ukraine will not only be able to rebuild, but become a prosperous and modern country.
But these exaggerated promises have little to do with the reasons why Kiev is trying to convince its allies to favour the “voluntary” return of the population currently residing as refugees in European countries. In moments of candor, both Zelensky and his entourage have admitted that they need this return for two clear reasons: people capable of fighting must be available to fight on the front, while the rest of the population must return to collaborate in the war effort through work and paying taxes. The population thus becomes an asset that simply acts as a pawn in a situation that is completely beyond its control. Ukraine has postponed the presidential, legislative and local elections indefinitely , thus eliminating all forms of citizen participation in decision-making, which is even more limited in the case of men of fighting age, and apparently obliged to do so.
For many months now, mass attempts to flee the country, actions against recruiting offices and evasion of conscription have been regularly reported by openly pro-Ukrainian media. In addition to the wear and tear of the war and the casualties incurred in these two years - always concealed by the government with the connivance of the press, which until a few weeks ago did not even ask questions - there is the need to exempt certain professions from conscription. Ukraine aspires to increase the number of troops available to the armed forces, but without forgetting the attempt to resume military production on a large scale. In the past, employers have demanded that the government officially exempt workers in these factories from conscription, since the fear of being forcibly conscripted when going to work caused many men not to show up for work. The Ukrainian authorities seem to have understood the problem and these complaints from employers have not been repeated.
However, the need for mobilisation is not decreasing but increasing. The Zelensky government hoped to achieve a major strategic objective with its attack on Kursk and that permission to use Western weapons in Russia would speed up the process to the point where it could dictate to Moscow the terms of surrender. None of that has happened and the situation for kyiv's troops has become more complicated in Donbass, where casualties remain a mystery but the intensity of the battle suggests they must be high. A clear sign of Ukraine's difficulties in replenishing its ranks is the increasingly public use of forced conscription. Attempts to avoid mobilisation by force are not massive, but they are dangerous enough that some offices have been given permission to shoot to kill if recruiting agents feel in danger.
The difficulties in recruiting soldiers were highlighted on Friday evening, when the Ukrainian authorities carried out mass raids in different places across the country, especially in the capital. Since 24 February 2022, every act of normality has been presented by the media as an epic display of Ukrainian courage. The parties that continue to take place every weekend in Odessa or the fact that high-end restaurants in Kiev remain full every day have been considered heroic. The same goes for concerts, a sign of normality that is also an opportunity for the authorities, aware that large gatherings of people are not so common.
Friday's raid on a concert in the country's capital was not the only action of this nature that has been carried out in Ukraine. The agents already showed up on the day of a small LGBT Pride event. Much to the delight of right-wing extremists like Maksym Zhoryn, who mocked, “Don’t you want equality?” the authorities easily identified a whole group of people, taking advantage of the fact that the attendees believed themselves protected by the state, which was particularly keen to appear modern, European and tolerant. Neither the organisers nor those taking part in the event expected to have to face not only the far right, which had already announced a counter-demonstration, but also recruiting agents.
The distinctive feature of Friday's raid, during which officers forcibly rounded up several people and transported them away in vans, and clashes ensued, was that it was a concert by Okean Elzy, the band of MP Vyacheslav Vakarchuk, a well-known figure in both the political and cultural spheres. Like Zelensky, Vakarchuk, who emerged on the political scene at the same time as the current president, was to revolutionise the Ukrainian way of life, turning the country into the liberal paradise that both figures aspire to. His party, Golos, was to be the centrist beacon guiding Ukrainian politics towards a level with that of Europe, leaving behind the personalist parties that had marked the previous three decades. With the postulates of the International Monetary Fund as the main economic ideology and Atlanticism as the only international conviction, Vakarchuk's role was completely eclipsed by the rise of Zelensky and the politician and singer has not been able to reinvent himself during the war as people like Serhiy Sternenko have done, who has managed to create for himself the character of an activist with aspirations to become a think-tanker . Little remains of the Vakarchuk that Francis Fukuyama claimed should be president of Ukraine.
As a socially and culturally important figure, belonging to an influential family and whose father was a minister in Yushchenko's government, Vakarchuk was expected to make at least a statement about the incidents that occurred following his concert, where several people were forcibly taken to the recruiting offices. The group's social networks have been filled with messages condemning the singer's silence, who has avoided making any comments. In favour of continuing the war until final victory, Vakarchuk cannot allow himself to criticise the mobilisation, even that carried out by force, nor to publicly declare himself on the side of the authorities at the expense of his followers.
In the face of Vakarchuk’s cowardly silence, those who advocate an even tougher mobilization are once again rejoicing. “Just mobilization is exactly like this: when people are taken not only from small villages and towns, but also from big cities where people go to concerts and restaurants,” Maksym Zhoryn wrote yesterday, commenting on a video in which a young man tries to get away from police officers who try to force him into a vehicle. Zhoryn, deputy commander of the Third Assault Brigade and a man very close to Andriy Biletsky, is thus using the anti-elite language so common among the far right, whose concern is not the population, but simply having enough cannon fodder to continue their project. Here too, the position of the far right is confused with that of the state.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/13/redadas/
Google Translator
******
From Cassad' Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Ministry of Defense Summary (as of October 13, 2024) Key Points:
Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 40 servicemen and 4 guns in the Liptsov and Vovchansk directions;
— The Russian Armed Forces have hit the infrastructure of a military airfield and warehouses of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles;
— Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 615 servicemen and a warehouse in the area of responsibility of the South group;
— Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 510 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the West group;
— Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 130 people in the area of responsibility of the East group;
— Over the past 24 hours, Russian air defense has shot down five HIMARS shells, two Neptune missiles, and 36 UAVs.
Units of the "East" group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the manpower and equipment of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Dobrovolye of the Donetsk People's Republic and Malinovka of the Zaporizhia region. Three counterattacks of assault groups of the 72nd Mechanized, 152nd Jaeger Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 123rd Territorial Defense Brigade were repelled.
The enemy's losses amounted to 130 servicemen, a tank, an infantry fighting vehicle, three cars and a Polish-made 155 mm self-propelled artillery unit "Krab".
Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the formations of the 141st Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 39th Coastal Defense Brigade , the 37th Marine Brigade and the 124th Territorial Defense Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Shlyakhovoe, Nikolskoye, Prydniprovskoye, Tokarevka in the Kherson region, Novoandriyevka and Kamenskoye in the Zaporizhia region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 50 servicemen, five vehicles, and a 122 mm howitzer D-30 . A US-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery station and two military equipment depots were destroyed.
Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile troops and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups damaged the infrastructure of a military airfield , unmanned aerial vehicle depots , as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 138 areas.
Air defense systems shot down five US-made HIMARS rockets , two long-range Neptune guided missiles and 36 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,580 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,619 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,472 multiple launch rocket systems, 16,106 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 27,230 units of special military vehicles.
https://t.me/mod_russia/44454
Google Translator
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Kiev’s New Victory Plan: Endless War
Posted by Internationalist 360° on October 11, 2024
Dmitri Kovalevich
Just as day follows night, those who want to perpetuate today’s war can only achieve this by usurping political power and suppressing any and all public protest and disagreement.
In the second half of September, Ukrainian authorities have been particularly active with foreign policy, against a backdrop of uncertainty over the outcome of the elections to take place in the United States on November 5. Americans will vote for a president on that date, and also for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate.
The continuation by Ukraine of its military operations against Russia is essential to Kiev’s continued hold on power, but Ukraine is completely dependent financially and militarily on the United States and European Union. Volodymyr Zelensky, whose five-year electoral mandate as president Ukraine expired in April 2024, is under increased pressure by US legislators to present some kind of coherent ‘victory plan’ with dates, figures, and deadlines that can be sold to a largely uninformed but increasingly skeptical US electorate. A ‘plan’ is needed in order for the unconditional support that Zelensky has received to date from the Western powers may continue.
According to the Washington Post on September 13, Ukraine has prepared a new ‘victory plan’ that is near-ready to present to its Western government sponsors. The newspaper reported that Zelensky was to travel to the United States in late September to meet with President Joe Biden. Zelensky admits his ‘plan’ would not end the war against Russia outright, but “it would help” Ukraine and NATO in their war efforts.
Zelensky said he would like to meet Donald Trump while in New York in order that his ‘victory plan’ (consisting of stepped-up military assistance and unconditional support to Ukraine by the Western powers) has the support of whoever is elected president on November 5.
A ‘victory plan’ by Ukraine?
The Ukrainian public doesn’t know much about the ‘victory plan’, previously termed a ‘peace plan’ by Zelensky in an earlier variant. But already the ‘plan’ is attracting a lot of criticism, both inside and outside the country.
Zelensky presented a vague outline of his proposal at the annual conference in Kiev on September 13, 14 of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) foundation, an agency created by wealthy Ukraine oligarch Viktor Pinchuk in 2004. It meets annually in Kiev.
There are a total of five points in Zelensky’s ‘plan’, according to Ukrainian officials. “Four of these are what we need, and one addresses the post-war situation,” Zelensky declared in early September, though he declined to disclose details. Ukrainian media is reporting that the cornerstone of the ‘victory plan’ is a demand that the Western powers provide Ukraine with longer-range missiles that would allow it to strike deeper into Russian territory and, crucially, permission to use them.
The Ukrainian Telegram channel Rubicon writes that Kiev has been actively requesting permission for such strikes, not so much for military purposes but to gain advantages in information and psychological operations. In particular, a strike on some crowded gathering in the center of Moscow would be considered a victory for Kiev because of the public panic it would sow, even if from a military point of view it would have zero value.
According to the writers at Rubicon, such blows by Kiev could be truly destructive to the morale of Russian society and would inevitably lower the level of trust of the Russian people in their political and military leaders. Or at least, that the writers and Kiev itself hope for. Zelensky apparently believes in the military/political value of large-scale provocations against civilians in Russia, resembling, for example, the gruesome cyberattacks conducted by “Israel” in Lebanon on September 17 and 18. Those attacks killed dozens of people and injured thousands, including many children and many people losing one or both eyes.
The new ‘victory plan’ replaces the earlier, so-called peace formula which Kiev first promoted in late 2022. This project, which was essentially a proposal for Russia’s surrender, rather predictably failed to find support in the countries of the Global South.
Zelensky’s new ‘victory plan’ is in reality no plan at all. It consists largely of measures needed for the regime and its military to survive the current, steadily progressing offensive by Russia in the Donbass region. That is, they are seeking to buy more time in order to forcibly conscript yet more foot soldiers into the Ukrainian army, Ukrainian political analyst Vadym Karasev told the Politnavigator news outlet on September 17.
And NATO membership?
One of the points of Zelensky’s new ‘victory plan’ is for NATO to extend a formal invitation to Ukraine to join it. Outgoing NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told a farewell event organized in his honor in Germany on September 19 that there will be no peace in Ukraine until and unless Kiev becomes a NATO member. But he added that NATO countries currently have no consensus on conditions and dates for such an invitation.
In a recent, op-ed commentary, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson once again stated his strong support for NATO membership for Ukraine.
In early September, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration, Olha Stefanyshyna, boldly declared that Ukraine should only join NATO on the condition that its 1991 borders be recognized and enshrined. Many other Ukrainian officials still voice this forlorn hope. This is highly provocative to Russian ears and also to the citizens of former Ukraine territories, notably Crimea and Donbass. There, the population has endured more than 10 years of military threats and economic sanctions and blockades by Ukraine following the violent, far-right coup in Kiev in February 2014.
In particular, the citizens of the Donbass region (which Russia recognizes as the Russian republics of Lugansk and Donetsk) have endured more than 10 years of a cruel civil war waged by post-2014-coup Kiev with the backing of the NATO countries.
Crimea also suffered greatly from economic and all other forms of sanctions beginning in 2014. It remains a declared target of Ukrainian military attacks, but the peninsula was spared the direct military intervention by Ukraine into Donbass.
No going back for the new citizens of the Russian Federation
As a result of the 2014 coup and its aftermath, the citizens of Crimea and Donbass have voted overwhelmingly to join the Russian Federation. The final, definitive vote in Donbass took place soon after Russia began its military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022.
Crimea’s status was settled in the referendum vote of March 15, 2014. All polling since then, including polls conducted by Western and pro-Western polling agencies, have confirmed high rates of satisfaction with that vote by the residents of the peninsula.
Three of the principal goals of Russian diplomacy and of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine are to end Kiev’s civil war in Donbass, to end any challenges to Crimea’s status as a constituent of the Russian Federation, and to guarantee the future security of the two territories. (These would also apply to the ‘new territories’ of the Russian Federation, as they are called in Russia, of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya – former Ukraine oblasts).
The votes in Crimea and Donbass to join the Russian Federation amounted to a ‘rejoining’ of Russia, considering that both entities were joined with Russia not so long ago some 70 years ago and never accepted separation from it in 1990-91. Crimea long held an autonomous status in the Soviet Union until it was joined to Ukraine in 1954 through an administrative decision of the Soviet Union government of the day. Donbass residents never voted until recently on which country they would wish to join.
A perpetual proxy war by the West
Ukraine continues to be driven into a vicious circle of perpetual, proxy war at the behest of the NATO countries. Zelensky’s new ‘plan’ to ‘win’ that war consists of drawing the NATO countries more directly into the conflict with Russia, with weapons supplies and a future NATO membership for Kiev as leading edges. But NATO membership for Ukraine is impossible to imagine without a military defeat of Russia, and the only way to achieve that, according to Kiev ideologues, is to escalate, using the advanced weaponry that the NATO countries would provide.
In other words, the ‘peace plan’ is a plan for military escalation whose outcome is entirely unpredictable and could spark further and unthinkable military escalation.
Andriy Yermak, the head of the office of President Zelensky, emphasizes the necessity for the Western powers to participate more directly in the war against Russia. He told a September 9 report on the English-language website of that office, addressing the people and governments of the Western powers: “It’s not just about our freedom, independence and territorial integrity. This is also about you and your countries. Because this war is a test for the world. All of us – in Latin America, Africa, and Asia – want to live in a safe world, where rules and international law prevail, not one where whoever is strong, whoever is big, has all the rights.”
Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch often draws parallels between modern Ukraine and “Israel”. Both are militarized, pro-Western states that must constantly be at war in order to avoid defeat and collapse at the hands of those whose territories they occupy illegally. Kushch writes that Netanyahu goes to war even as he talks about ‘peace’ because his strategy is to drag the US into a major regional war, aiming to crush Iran, the only large country in the Middle East that is today able and prepared to stand up to “Israel” and its US and European backers.
“Netanyahu will not stop. He could be replaced through a political process, but as long as the war is going on, that is impossible. Any ‘intermediate’ resolution of “Israel’s” conflict with the Palestinian people is, for him, akin to political death. Looking at him, one can even formulate the maxim of his policy, ‘War is power. Power is life. The end of war equals the loss of power. The loss of power equals the loss of political life, at a minimum,’ the Ukrainian economist paraphrases.
The same formula of perpetual war with the prospect of escalating into a global war also applies in Ukraine. For Zelensky, it is exactly the same — the end of the war will mean the loss of power and political death not only for him but also for the tens of thousands of corrupt, Ukrainian officials who have enriched themselves since 2014 thanks to Western aid and who wish this to continue.
The Western, imperialist countries also benefit from the continuation of the war in Ukraine. The Financial Times reported on September 11 that according to a spending watchdog it cites, much of the military aid the UK has given to Ukraine has consisted of old equipment such as boots that would otherwise have to be thrown away. Military gear that was “often due to be scrapped or replaced” has been prioritized by the UK Ministry of Defense because it is deemed to have “immediate military value” to Ukraine. But it so happens that sending such equipment to Kiev also “reduced waste or costs relating to disposal”.
Other Western supporters have also given aging equipment to Kiev. In one recent US example, ten military transport vehicles ostensibly worth more than $7 million had a combined book value of zero. In other words, this trafficking of used military equipment can be extremely profitable for the West. Much of that traffic consists of selling on credit to Ukraine what amounts to scrap metal that would otherwise cost the United States and Great Britain considerable funds for disposal.
Former Ukrainian MP and ultra-nationalist Igor Mosiychuk says that Ukrainians are simply being thrown into the cauldron of war similar to coal being shoveled into a furnace. “We are given aid and we are given weapons so that we can continue effective defense, but not enough to stop the enemy or win the war. Our nation is being used like coal or charcoal to fry the Russian Federation.”
Ukraine billionaire, a great friend of Western leaders, presses for an expanded war
In late September, Ukrainian billionaire Viktor Pinchuk, son-in-law of Ukraine’s second president Leonid Kuchma, hosted the aforementioned YES forum in Kiev. Pinchuk is known for funding Western politicians, including donating to the Clinton Foundation, maintaining friendly relations with former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and organizing parties for the Western elites when they gather each year in Davos, Switzerland.
At the September forum, Pinchuk said the West should provide Kiev with as many weapons and money as it wants and cater to its requests, since Western countries are unwilling to sacrifice the lives of their own soldiers in fighting Russia. He also wants military aid to be provided without any conditions or reservations, saying that Western fears about the risks of escalation of the conflict with Russia were merely a result of “Kremlin propaganda”. There is nothing to fear, he asserts. Most of Pinchuk’s family relatives live in London in luxury real estate acquired by him over the years.
Without Russia’s defeat, Pinchuk says, war could break out in other regions. “If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, then China, North Korea, and Iran are likely to turn against Taiwan, South Korea, and Israel. The whole world will be drawn into war. The more military support there is for Ukraine, the less risk there will be of escalation, of war between NATO and Russia, and of a global domino effect with the emergence of more and more wars against democracy,” Pinchuk told the forum gathering.
According to him, Ukrainians are the chosen people to show the triumph of freedom and democracy. But he would like Europeans to personally participate in the war with the Russian Federation as well. “When I call Ukrainians the chosen people, many important parallels arise in my mind. I will cite only one: The Pharaoh [Vladimir Putin] must lose, and to achieve this, we must defeat him,” the billionaire concluded.
According to ABC News, former Trump administration official Kellyanne Conway has registered in the United States as a foreign agent representing Victor Pinchuk’s foundation. The same news reports explain, “Pinchuk has also been a prolific donor to the Clinton Foundation, giving tens of millions of dollars to the group over the years.”
‘To win or not to be’
At the YES forum, Pinchuk summarized in Shakespearean language his recommended strategy for Ukraine in its war with Russia: ‘To win or not to be’.
Ukraine legislator Oleksandr Dubinsky, a former ally of Zelensky, commented to his followers on Telegram: “The phrase ‘To win or not to be’ voiced by Pinchuk at the YES gathering is all about eternal war, in which the Ukrainian nation has no right to accept defeat. Although Pinchuk wanted to mix Shakespeare and Churchill in his wording, it sounded more like Hitler in 1945: ‘If the German nation cannot win this war, it must disappear.’ This is exactly the choice Pinchuk and Zelensky are putting before Ukrainians today,” Dubinsky wrote.
In other words, the workers and farmers of Ukraine, who have become the main targets of forced military mobilization, should sacrifice their lives for the preservation of the global world order and the fortunes of Ukraine’s class of billionaires.
A de facto demilitarization of Ukraine
In reality, Ukrainian political scientist Vadym Karasev argues, Ukraine is effectively demilitarizing, both militarily and psychologically. “Firstly, we risk demilitarization from the fighting because we are losing people and equipment. We cannot restore equipment in sufficient quantity because we simply do not have our own capacity to do so, and as for losing people (our soldiers), neither can these be replaced.
“Secondly, there is a demilitarization of consciousness taking place. We see what is happening with the military mobilization [conscription]. There are forced kidnappings taking place because so many citizens do not want to fight. They are not yet militarized and they feel that little can be achieved in this way,” he says.
Moreover, according to estimates from the World Health Organization, nearly 10 million people in Ukraine are suffering severe mental disorders due to the war, or are at risk of doing so.
For Kiev journalism professor Nikita Vasilenko, a simple preservation of the country of Ukraine in some form should be considered a victory. “To preserve the country, we must go for even the most despicable, bastardized peace plan. That is for one simple reason — one more offensive such as the recent one into Kursk, Russia will cost us the remaining elite of the nation. At Kursk, by our count, about 10,000 have already fallen. The Russians’ count of our losses is a much higher number, an immense one as should be expected. Whatever the exact count, these losses were professional troops, consisting of young men who can no longer regenerate and revive the population.”
In response to the requests for peace being increasingly sounded in Ukraine, the editors of the Washington Post are turning to scaring Ukrainians with the specter of a new coup d’état in the event of any peace agreement involving the loss of territory. They cite several Ukrainian military officials to this effect.
Oleksandr Dubinskyy writes that it was Zelensky’s lobbyists who relayed to Western media the thesis voiced by Pinchuk at the YES conference, which was, in turn, drawn from the invited, Ukrainian military leaders in attendance, namely: ‘Peace in exchange for territory in Ukraine will lead to civil war’. Dubinsky writes, “This is nothing more than fear-mongering directed by Zelensky at the Western governments and populations. He is saying, effectively: ‘If you force me to go for a peace settlement, you will get a coup.’ However, a coup is only possible if Zelensky, who has done everything against the interests of Ukraine, remains in power without elections.”
Zelensky and the military hawks in the West who back him are claiming to speak on behalf of the Ukrainian people. But they do not and cannot know the peoples’ views. In the current conditions of martial law, tight media censorship, and ultra-right terror in Ukraine to suppress any expressions of political protest, no accurate survey of Ukrainians’ opinions on social, political, and military matters is possible or even permitted. Moreover, politically savvy people in Ukraine know that speaking one’s mind to sociologists conducting surveys is not a safe thing to do in the country today. It can be done only at considerable risk to one’s personal safety and security.
Elections in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely, until the end of martial law, whenever that may arrive. Zelensky and the Western hawks are seeking all-out to perpetuate the war against Russia. Just as day follows night, those who want to perpetuate today’s war can only achieve this by usurping political power and suppressing any and all public protest and disagreement.
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/10/ ... dless-war/
US Navy Was at Scene of Nord Stream Blasts: Danish Media
October 11, 2024
The wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge operating in the Baltic Sea on September 3, 2022. Photo: AP.
According to Politiken, US warships were operating in the region with their transponders turned off.
Prior to the explosions that destroyed the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea, US Navy ships were present at the location, according to a local harbormaster quoted in the Danish newspaper Politiken.
The Nord Stream 2 pipelines, a major infrastructure project aimed at delivering natural gas from Russia to Europe, were targeted in an act of sabotage in September 2022, with Moscow pointing fingers at the West or Ukraine.
In August, The Wall Street Journal reported that Ukrainian businessmen had funded the attack on the project, although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had ordered to halt the attack at the CIA’s request.
Russia, however, insisted that the reports shared by WSJ were a mere tactic to divert attention from the actual perpetrators, saying its findings were improbable. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov affirmed that Russian Intelligence is certain that major states were involved in the sabotage.
Despite being published on September 26, Politiken’s article received little attention. But on Tuesday, it reappeared on X when Glenn Greenwald and other well-known independent journalists repeated the claims.
According to the story, American warships were operating in the region east of the Danish island of Bornholm with their transponders turned off.
The article included statements from John Anker Nielsen, the harbormaster of the Danish port of Christianso, which lies near Bornholm. He stated that he had opted to publish information on the September 2022 events, despite originally being “not allowed to say a thing” about them.
According to Nielsen, he initiated a rescue mission in the region four or five days before the Nord Stream blasts after noticing ships with their transponders turned off and presuming an emergency.
However, once Danish rescuers neared the site, they discovered that the warships in issue were US Navy ships, according to Nielsen. According to the harbormaster, the Naval Command then instructed Nielsen and his colleagues to turn back.
Russia says Nord Stream investigators misleading probe, US deflects
Russian Ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, stated on Friday that those responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines may be attempting to mislead investigators to conceal their involvement.
During a UN Security Council meeting, he stated, “There is another explanation as to why, of late, we’ve seen more and more far-fetched versions of what happened, and that’s simply that those who ordered and executed this crime are trying to cover their tracks and to point the investigation in the wrong direction.”
Nebenzia also remarked that until the investigations are complete, these parties may continue to hinder the UN Security Council’s efforts to take action.
He further urged the resumption of investigations to keep the world free from energy threats, saying, “If we want this infrastructure to be free from danger, the terrorist attack targeting the Nord Stream pipeline should be investigated.”
However, a US diplomat was quick to claim that no evidence exists to prove the United States’ involvement in the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage.
“There is no shred of evidence of US involvement and there never will be, because the United States was not involved.”
He further deflected from the topic, saying it was not an urgent matter for the council.
https://orinocotribune.com/us-navy-was- ... ish-media/
*****
Ukraine Weekly Update
11th October 2024
Dr. Rob Campbell
Oct 11, 2024
<snip>
Ukraine Mobilisation Problems
19th Century ‘recruiters’ for the Royal Navy
The planned Ukrainian mobilisation has managed to recruit less than half what was expected and hoped for. Recruitment to the TCC (the ‘recruiters’) has dried up completely, probably due the hatred ordinary Ukrainians have for these people. According to a report from a Ukrainian source, many more Ukrainians are accepting mobilisation but are going home after being sent to the front. Apparently, the TCC will not bother them once they return home. Yet 81% of Ukrainians still believe they can beat Russia with Western assistance, according to a survey.
Foreign Officers Can Join Army
The Verkhovna Rada has passed a law which will allow foreigners to be officers in the Ukrainian Army. This comes as no surprise given the fact that Ukraine has lost most of its officers and will need NATO replacements.
Zelensky - ‘Gimme the Missiles Now!’
Apparently, Zelensky has spoken to New NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressing his annoyance that he hasn’t been given the long range missiles to kill civilians in Moscow. He is losing patience, according to this report.
In another interview, he explained the Kursk adventure: ‘The Kursk operation motivates those who give us weapons’, he said. In other words, Kursk is all about PR, which will anger many.
Z Nominated For the Nobel Peace Prize
In the Orwellian world of a falling Empire defeat is victory, villains are heroes and war is peace. Barack Obama, who took the US into more wars than any other US president was rewarded with the Nobel Peace Prize and now the once great Z, who vowed to bring peace to Ukraine but brought war instead was nominated for the Prize. He didn’t win.
<snip>
Bezugla - She’s Back!
Maryana Bezugla has got the bit between her teeth and will not let go. Recently, she delivered several salvoes against poor General Syrsky including:
As the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, you have only exacerbated the degeneracy of the highest military command and may go down in history in disgrace.
The recent loss of another two Patriot Systems, she said, is due to the:
absence of a system, which the current generals are simply unable to build due to their IQ, lack of desire and corruption.
Today she’s attacking Syrsky, but ten months ago it was Zaluzhny!
I had forgotten that Maryana was involved in some controversy last November, which I reported on in the first Update for December. At that time, she was very critical of the fact that Zaluzhny had not come up with a ‘plan’. She also called for changes in the organisational structures of the armed forces. You can read more here. Maryana has a medical degree which had a military and organisational/management aspect and she served a government internship which gave her a qualification in the organisation and management of healthcare. So, she is an organiser and maybe she can recognise poor organisation when she sees it. I have no idea whether she is being used or not by some faction or other. But I’d like to believe that this is the case of someone who is confident in her abilities and is just sticking to her guns in slamming what she sees as shoddy work.
Military Mutiny?
Oleg Soskin, former adviser to a previous Ukrainian President, believes that a military mutiny is imminent because soldiers will not tolerate the abuse inflicted upon them. The sacrificial destruction of the 72nd Brigade at Ugledar served as a lesson, he said. The soldiers will come with weapons to use against those responsible:
Now you are speeding in an uncontrolled vehicle straight toward the station 'rebellion'—harsh, bloody, and merciless.
HIMARS Defeated
According to a Ukrainian source, the Russians have reduced the effectiveness of HIMARS systems by 90%. The source, which quotes a report by two retired American servicemen who have visited Ukraine, also claims that any innovations the Ukrainians develop on the battlefields are counteracted by the Russians within weeks.
<snip>
Ukraine Used Chemical Weapons in Kursk
I have reported Ukraine’s use of chemical weapons on a number of occasions previously and it continues to use them. On Monday, 7th October, Chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov advised that the Ukrainians had used chemical weapons in Sudzha (Kursk) back in August. These took the form of smoke shells as part of 155mm cluster munitions and are known to have contained chlorine. They were part of a batch of 3,800 shells supplied by the West to Ukraine in September 2023. You can read more at Tass or you can get more detail on the Russian MoD Telegram channel.
Polish Mercenaries Murder Russian Civilians in Kursk
US based private mercenary group in Kursk
Residents of Sudzha in Kursk are claiming that Polish mercenaries murdered a group of civilians during their ‘incursion’. The soldiers rounded up old people and the young and shot them in front of everyone. This is not the first report I’ve seen of atrocities in Kursk, including murder, rape, abductions and holding people in ‘camps’. You can read more at RT. According to Sputnik, there are large quantities of foreign mercenaries involved in the terrorist attack on Kursk.
<snip>
Kursk
On the 10th October, the Russians broke through Lyubimovka and were attacking to the rear at Zeleny Shlyakh. If this latter is taken, Ukrainians in the former will be cut off. A Ukrainian source reported that Syrsky does not have the reserves to prevent this from happening.
On October 11th, the Military Chronicle gave this short report:
It is reported that during the offensive in the last two days, Russian units liberated five settlements between Korenevo and Sudzha, at least two battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were surrounded. The enemy command hastily transfers the 47th brigade to Lyubimovka, which has been swarming under the strikes of the Aerospace Forces on the border with the Glushkovsky district for two weeks.
The Ukrainians are also on the verge of defeat at Ogovka, according to Slavyangrad. Weeb Union provides a Sitrep here. The consensus view among commentators is that the Kursk front is collapsing fast.
Kharkov
Fighting is still going on in Volchansk as the Russians attack Ukrainians entrenched near the flour mill in the western part of the town.
Kupyansk
By the end of the week, the Russians were able to advance 1 km from Kotlyarovka to the Oskol River and take up new positions on the Kupyansk-Svatovo highway. One report suggests that the Russians have entered the village of Petropavlivka (close to Kupyansk).
Seversk
Chasiv Yar
Toretsk
By the end of the week, fighting continued in the centre of Toretsk and around the Tstentralnaya mine. The Ukrainians still cling to the waste heaps. The Russians are also fighting north of Novgorodskoye, according to the Majors.
Pokrovsk
Marat Khairullin is claiming that the Ukrainians were using civilians as human shields in Pokrovsk anticipating a frontal assault on the city. But when it became clear that the Russians intended to surround the city, the Ukrainians began killing civilians so they could blame the Russians for the atrocity. You can read more here. I have no confirmation of this but Khairullin has been reporting such atrocities for a while. By the end of the week, the Russians had made advances towards Lysivka (not on map) and to the south of Selidovo.
Selidove
By the end of the week, the Russians had advanced in the western outskirts of Tsukurino and had progressed more than a kilometer from the southern outskirts of Selidovo towards the village of Vishnevoye. It is claimed that the Ukrainians are preparing to leave Selidovo. Fighting continues in the direction of Ostrovskoye, near Katerinovka (Yekaterinovka) and in Maksimilyanovka.
Uhledar
By the 10th October, the Russians were advancing north of Uhledar having beaten off Ukrainian counter-attacks. According to a resident of Uhledar who never abandoned the city: ‘We waited for you for two years and seven months. And now we feel light in our hearts, having seen you." You can listen to her on this Telegram Channel. By the end of the week fighting continued only in Bogoyavlenka.
Zaporozhye
I have seen reports that the Russians are building up forces in the Orekhov - Rabotinsky directions according to Voloshin, a representative of the Southern Defence Forces. On the 4th October, 400 attacks were made on Zaporozhye in just 24 hours: these are expected to intensify. By the end of the week, heavy fighting was reported in Kamenskoye.
Kherson
Fighting continues around the village of Dnepryany where the Russians are using mortars while the Ukrainians are deploying kamikaze drones.
(More at link.)
https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukra ... update-6c7
******
On the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kursk region
October 12, 14:11
On the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kursk region
In the Kursk region.
There are good results in the area of:
1. Olgovka
2. Lyubimovka.
3. Novoivanovka
4. Malaya Loknya.
5. In the eastern part of the Sudzhansky district.
The published maps are now really lagging behind the events, but this is even good - there is no need to rush with victorious reports, people are working and will soon present good results.
Regarding the Olgovka area, there really is an unknown number of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers wandering in the forests there, who retreated from their positions, some are being caught or they remain there forever.
At the same time, it would be a mistake to say that the enemy is running and giving up positions everywhere. On the contrary, where it can, it resists and tries to bring in reinforcements, which is actively hindered by our drones, causing significant losses in people and equipment every day. At the same time, in a number of areas, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not hesitate to launch counterattacks in order to try to hamper our active actions. So, there is no point in underestimating the enemy and pouring champagne in advance.
The trends are favorable for us now in the Kursk region, we act primarily with skill, but there is still a lot of work ahead.
The broadcast of military operations, as usual, is here https://t.me/boris_rozhin (if anyone is interested, subscribe)
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9435047.html
Attack on the decline
October 11, 18:53
Offensives on the wane
I recently expressed an idea in the comments, I will expand a little more fully. Can an army that is on the wane of its power launch an offensive, take territory? Launch an offensive in the Kursk region, in short.
Of course it can. Historical examples here are the Wehrmacht offensive in the Ardennes in 1944 and on Lake Balaton in 1945 (not only the March "Spring Awakening", but also the "Conrads" in January).
The goal of the offensive in the Ardennes (codename "Wacht am Rhein", "Watch on the Rhine" - such a patriotic German song) was quite tangible - the port of Antwerp. Indeed, Antwerp, when the issue with the island of Walcheren at the mouth of the Scheldt was resolved in late autumn 1944, significantly facilitated the supply of the Allied armies on the approaches to Germany. Before that, they were suffocated by the need to drive cargo in a roundabout way by car (Red Ball Express) with a number of ports occupied by German garrisons in "fortress" mode.
I emphasize: this is not a repetition of the "sickle strike" of May 1940. A much simpler and more tangible goal. Field Marshal Model's proposal to launch a local counterattack in this context was noticeably worse. It did not have the same effect as the capture of Antwerp. Which would have forced the Allies to get stuck on the German border for a long time.
Did the Americans uncover the German preparations? They did not. Including due to the fact that "Ultra" intercepts radiograms in a maneuverable battle, but does not intercept telephones on a static front, and maintaining radio silence is the basis of operational camouflage.
However, what do we see in the case of the army "coming from the fair"? Firstly, the operation was prepared for a very long time due to, among other things, the need to accumulate fuel. Because in September the tap with Romania was turned off (by the forces of the 2nd and 3rd Ukrainian) and the allies seriously worked on the synthetic fuel plants.
Secondly, we see that despite all the tricks, Antwerp was far away. It turned out to be only a wedging with a limited result from all points of view. What was the "Antwerp" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Kursk NPP? Probably. We'll find out later.
About Balaton next time. And yes, there is a third question: will there be an operation "Nordwind" and where?
(c) Alexey Isaev
https://t.me/iron_wind/1077 - zinc
The enemy did not achieve the goals with the Kursk NPP and the Lgov-Kurchatov highway and the offensive gradually fizzled out. The consequences are now coming.
But of course, attempts to turn around the bad operational situation by tactical means will continue, mainly with the support of the West.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9433718.html
Boris Johnson is trying to shirk responsibility
October 13, 12:41
Boris Johnson is trying to shirk responsibility
Boris Johnson refuses to take responsibility for the fact that the war did not end in March-April 2022, although it is well known from several Ukrainian and Western sources that it was Johnson who insisted that peace was not needed and said "Let's fight".
And everything suited Johnson in 2022 and even in 2023, when the West seriously hoped first for an economic, and then a military defeat of Russia.
But now the situation is different - it was not possible to isolate Russia diplomatically (the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan will once again confirm this), it was not possible to destroy the Russian economy (Russia restructured its energy supplies and maintained GDP growth against the backdrop of growth problems in Europe), and at the front, Russia firmly holds the operational and strategic initiative and methodically recaptures territory and populated areas.
And the question of responsibility arises for the fact that everything came here. Everything is clear with the cocaine Fuhrer, they will try to blame everything on him. But Johnson no longer wants to be in this company. Therefore, like a cheapskate, he tries to take back his words and pretend that he had nothing to do with the liquidation of Ukraine within its former borders and the hundreds of thousands of murdered citizens of the former Ukraine.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9436588.html
Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V
Gas and regional geopolitics
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/14/2024
“Ukraine and Slovakia will create an energy hub for Eastern Europe,” headlined Ukrainska Pravda on Monday , citing the words of Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal after his meeting with President Robert Fico, who has recovered and returned to his post after the assassination attempt that put his life in danger. Although the Ukrainian media mainly focused on news about energy cooperation, the Slovak president did not hesitate to repeat to Shmyhal his position regarding Ukraine’s geopolitical position. As Politico stated on Monday , the Slovak president said on Sunday in an appearance in a Slovak media that “as long as I lead the government, I will direct the deputies under my control as chairman of the party [Smer] to never accept Ukraine’s accession.” According to Strana , Fico insisted on his “100%” support for Ukraine’s entry into the European Union, but not into NATO. This "no" attitude towards Ukraine's entry into the military bloc is compounded by Fico's intention to resume normal relations with Russia if the war ends during his term in office. However, as his meeting with the Ukrainian prime minister shows, this position is not in contradiction with cooperating with kyiv on issues affecting both countries, including energy.
“Slovakia will transfer 500,000 euros for Ukraine’s energy needs,” Ukrainska Pravda added to its report on the energy hub agreed by the two countries, which, according to Shmyhal, will aim to “use gas storage facilities, develop the Mukachevo interconnector and cooperate in the nuclear industry. This will strengthen not only the energy security of our two countries, but also that of the entire Eastern European region.” At the meeting, Kiev obtained half a million euros from one of the poorest countries in the European Union for “energy needs and restoration of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure within the framework of the Bilateral Cooperation Plan in the field of development of Slovakia” and an agreement that should benefit both states. “I would like to emphasize that Slovakia is the second most important country in terms of exporting both emergency and commercial electricity to Ukraine,” Shmyhal added, making clear the role of the neighbouring country in Kiev’s attempt to reduce the effects of Russian attacks on the national electricity system.
However, cooperation has its limits, and in this case, war and geopolitical positions play an important role. Before the meeting, Fico had asked Ukraine for a “friendly gesture” on the gas issue, after Kiev had already stopped the transit of Russian oil to countries such as Slovakia. Gas gives Ukraine a bargaining chip, a pressure chip and a blackmail card that Kiev will not give up. “After meeting Fico on Monday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed that Kiev would not renew the transit contract between Naftogaz, the Ukrainian energy company, and Russia’s Gazprom, which expires at the end of this year,” wrote the Financial Times on Monday . Ukrainian media echoed Ukraine’s refusal to continue dealing with Gazprom even if it were to be done at the expense of neighbouring countries that are helping Kiev to alleviate the energy crisis it is currently suffering from due to the war.
Over the past decade, Ukraine's stance on the gas issue has been a reflection of the country's economic and political situation. Its ability to stop the flow of gas at any time has already been used in the past as a tool of pressure on both the East and the West, and the likely involvement of the Ukrainian state in the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline would confirm Ukraine's willingness to do everything in its power to make a project that is contrary to its interests unviable. As in the case of the possible halting of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, which would harm countries such as Slovakia, Austria and Hungary, the attack on the Baltic Sea gas pipeline primarily affects the second largest provider of military assistance to Ukraine, Germany, a factor that did not prevent the attack on the infrastructure.
But gas transit brings in revenues that Ukraine, which has made clear its intention to break with Gazprom once and for all in its emphasis on completely isolating its economy from Russia and renouncing all economic relations with its eastern neighbour, does not want to give up. In this balancing act between refusing to reach an agreement with the Russian national gas company and losing a significant flow of money, Ukraine would be willing to continue transit if it is the Western countries that reach agreements with Russia. This is a repeat of the situation in which Kiev claimed during the years of war in Donbass to have completely freed itself from Russian gas, replaced by gas purchased precisely from Slovakia, which has no production and which received its own from the Russian Federation. In other words, Gazprom sent gas through Ukraine to Slovakia to then be sent to Ukraine. In this way, Kiev kept its transit revenues and could claim that it did not deal with Gazprom.
The current situation is marked by Ukraine's perceived strength. After the meeting with Fico, Shmyhal admitted the vulnerable situation in which countries such as Slovakia find themselves due to what he perceives as a dependence on Russian gas, which he hopes will decrease in the future through diversification. Able to give lessons to its neighbours despite being a country whose economic survival depends on foreign subsidies, Ukraine defended the possibility of using its transit system to export Azerbaijani gas to the European Union - which would presumably also include Russian gas, especially given the good relations between Baku and Moscow - and did not hide the fact that its aim is to obtain sanctions against Russian gas. kyiv does not want to lose its privileged position in gas transit, nor the income it brings, but it does want to decide which gas its neighbours, who are currently helping it to alleviate its crisis, should buy.
The media that reported the news also forget one detail. The current agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which has allowed gas transit to continue uninterrupted despite the war, was the main outcome of the Normandy Format summit of heads of state and government held in December 2019 in Paris. For weeks, the then newly elected President Volodymyr Zelensky begged his allies and also Vladimir Putin to hold a meeting. Zelensky was even forced to confront the soldiers of the Azov regiment, who refused to comply with the order to partially withdraw from an area of just two square kilometers under an agreement reached more than two years earlier. It was the Russian president's demand for agreeing to hold the meeting. That summit, like the current statements, was a reflection of Ukraine's priorities. Although it was theoretically presented as an opportunity to move forward in resolving the conflict in Donbass via the Minsk agreements, the war was a secondary issue and the gas agreement was the only tangible result of that summit. There was no progress in finding a solution to the war, something of little interest to kyiv given that it involved political concessions, but Ukraine guaranteed itself five more years of income from the transit of Russian gas. A raw material that it now intends to sanction, but from which it continues to obtain income.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/14/el-ga ... -regional/
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Every misfortune begins anew: about another shooting (this time by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk Oblast)
October 13, 2024
Rybar
As if there weren't enough events this Sunday, the world began to scream at the top of their voices about the shooting of Ukrainian UAV operators near the village of Zelenyi Shlyakh in the Kursk region .
Such shootings on the front lines on both sides of the front are far from uncommon .
One of the most common scenarios is an attempt to escape and seize weapons , resulting in the prisoners being eliminated as part of an armed struggle.
Killing an enemy during the heat of battle , when the enemy's machine gun simply jammed or ran out of ammo, is also a reality that is typical for all conflict zones.
Often, prisoners become a burdensome burden : it is not always possible to even assign guards to them when you are conducting effective assault operations, and the success of your comrades depends on your advancement.
Fighting from high offices and demanding humanity is good until you find yourself on the front lines and in a "you or them" situation. When there is an opportunity, prisoners are taken.
But when we talk about our "old territories" and the "invasion of occupiers" into the Russian borderland, then all the humanitarian nonsense can be left aside. Especially if we consider that at the official level in Russia (listen to the briefings of the top officials) all the intruders are terrorists .
Has anyone forgotten that at first “there were no Ukrainian troops” (and there is no mercy for the officially recognized terrorist organizations “Russian Volunteer Corps” and “Legion of Freedom of Russia” ), so all those who entered under a “false flag” could easily be considered terrorists?
Has anyone forgotten how members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Main Intelligence Directorate began to take responsibility for the murder of civilians, explosions, terrorist attacks, and boast about it?
There is no point in justifying or blaming anyone in this case: there are people on the ground whose task is to clear Russian territory of invading forces. And as far as we can judge, this task has been activated again this week and successfully.
And the calls for compliance with the Geneva Convention from some Ukrainian ombudsmen look like some kind of schizophrenic cynicism: if earlier such characters declared that anything can be done with Russian troops, now they paint themselves white and try on fluffy quad bike clothes.
https://rybar.ru/liha-beda-nachalo-nach ... j-oblasti/
Google Translator
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Responsible Statecraft:
Diplomacy Watch: Russia capitalizing on battlefield surge
October 12, 2024
By Aaron Sobczak, Responsible Statecraft, 10/4/24
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to increase the size of Russia’s military even while it’s seeing regular successes on the battlefield. These developments are leading some in the Ukrainian military and civilians alike to become more open to the idea of talks aimed at ending the war.
The Kremlin is currently negotiating a new military budget proposal of upwards of $145 billion which would mean that, if signed into law, Russia’s 2025 defense spending would grow to 32.5% of the budget, a 4.2% increase from this year’s spending.
This proposed increase coincides with the Kremlin’s recent announcement that it would revise the country’s nuclear doctrine, saying that Russia could respond to a conventional attack with nuclear weapons and that it would consider any attack that is supported by a nuclear power to be a “joint attack” — a policy presumably meant to deter at any Ukrainian attack inside Russian territory with U.S/Western weapons.
And even as the Russian military is increasingly seeing more successes on the battlefield, it’s about to increase in manpower. To support his previous order to add 180,000 troops to the military, Putin has called up 133,000 Russian men to serve as part of the autumn draft.
Meanwhile, it appears the Ukrainian military and public at large are growing war weary. The Financial Times reported this week that “Ukraine is heading into what may be its darkest moment of the war so far” in the face of increasing battlefield losses, its struggles to replenish military ranks, and the prospects of facing another winter with regular power and heating outages. “Society is exhausted,” said the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee chair.
FT points out a poll conducted this summer by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology for the National Democratic Institute which found that 57% of the public supported negotiations with the Kremlin, up from 33% the previous year. Additionally, 55% are opposed to a deal that would include ceding land to Russia, down from 87% last year.
FT also noted that according to KIIS polling, “making any deal acceptable that allows Russia to stay in the parts of Ukraine it has seized since its first invasion in 2014 will hinge on obtaining meaningful Western security guarantees, which for Kyiv means NATO membership.”
Diplomats engaging with Ukraine also report that Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials seem more open to peace talks. One diplomat said, “We’re talking more and more openly about how this ends and what Ukraine would have to give up in order to get a permanent peace deal.”
In other Ukraine war news this week:
Reuters reports that China and Brazil, amongst others, compiled a peace plan to present to Ukraine and Russia last Friday. Seventeen countries met in New York during the last United Nations General Assembly meeting to discuss a potential end to the war, with China chairing the talks. Zelenskyy showed no interest in the peace plan, and questioned why they were drawing up alternative plants to his own.
Incoming NATO secretary-general says that the alliance will support Ukraine regardless of who wins in America’s November election. According to The Wall Street Journal, new Secretary-GeneralMark Rutte said, “I am absolutely convinced that on this issue, they both see what is necessary.” He added confidently that “supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do. And it is also an investment in our own security.”
In September 30th’s State Department Briefing;
State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller responded to a question regarding Ukraine’s ability to strike at Russian targets. Miller reiterated that Ukraine does not need permission to strike Russian targets with its own weapons. He also stated that the United States had given Kyiv permission to use some American weapons in a retaliatory fashion against targets in Russia.
He was pressed as to why Ukrainians are limited as to which American weapons they can use to strike targets in Russia. In his response he said, “We look at all of the capabilities and all the tactics and all the support that we provide Ukraine in totality, and look at how – when we approve any new weapon system or any new tactic, we look at how it’s going to affect the entire battlefield and Ukraine’s entire strategy. And that’s what we’ll continue to do.”
In this week’s October 2nd State Department Briefing;
A reporter asked Mr. Miller if Washington was ready to start implementing Ukraine’s proposed victory plan, to which he responded with, “We took that plan, we reviewed it, we saw a number of productive steps in it. We’re going to engage with them about it.”
Finally, Miller interacted with a question which compared US support of Israel during the recent Iranian missile strike to the support which Ukraine has received. He explained that the United States gives Ukraine the support needed to shoot down missiles, saying that “we have made clear that we support Ukraine’s right to defend itself not just in words but in deeds, and we have provided them with the equipment they need to shoot down missiles.”
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/res ... eld-surge/
Jimmy Dore: HALF Of Ukraine Land Has Been Sold To Western Corporations!
October 12, 2024 1 Comment
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/jim ... porations/
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US tees up Ukrainian and Syrian jihadi proxies in fight against Russia
In a familiar strategy of backing proxy forces, the US has orchestrated a toxic alliance between Ukrainian forces and Syrian extremists to counter Russia's influence — continuing Washington's decades-long pattern of leveraging terror groups to pursue its geopolitical goals.
Mohamed Nader Al-Omari
OCT 13, 2024
Photo Credit: The Cradle
Decades after the end of the Cold War, the US continues to employ proxy warfare as a central strategy in its confrontations with major global rivals, particularly Russia and China. This approach enables the US to extend its influence and pursue its geopolitical objectives without direct military engagement, instead relying on third-party actors to do the heavy lifting.
This has played out in various global crises, despite the potential for blowback and undermining international peace and security. A recent and striking example of this strategy can be observed in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, where the US has provided significant support to the latter in its fight against Moscow.
The Kiev-Idlib axis
One notable instance of this proxy war occurred in mid-September, when Ukrainian forces, in coordination with militant groups in Syria, including Al-Qaeda offshoot Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS - formerly known as Al-Nusra Front), launched a series of drone attacks on Russian military facilities in Syria.
The group has since denied the claims, dismissing them as a “Russian disinformation campaign aimed at justifying further military action in Syria’s liberated areas.”
The operation involved Ukrainian private mercenaries called "Khimek,” affiliated with the Main Directorate of Ukrainian Intelligence, working alongside Idlib-based militants to target a drone production and testing site in the southeastern suburbs of Aleppo, according to a Kiev Post report on 18 September.
The following day, further drone attacks were carried out on ten Syrian military positions in Aleppo, the southern Idlib countryside, and in northeastern Latakia. In early October, two major Russian military sites - the Hmeimim Base and a weapons depot near the coastal city of Jableh — were repeatedly targeted.
But these operations were not the first initiative aided by Ukrainian military and intelligence agents in Syria. On 26 July, in what militant forces described as a “devastating” and “complex” strike, they targeted Kuweires military airport in Aleppo's east, used as an airbase by Russian troops, one day after Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in Moscow.
The alliance between Ukrainian intelligence and Syrian militant groups, with support from NATO, is a relatively new but significant development. It began earlier this year, when a Ukrainian delegation visited Idlib to negotiate with the HTS leadership for the release of several Chechen, Georgian, and Uighur militants being held in HTS prisons — estimated at between 750 and 900 prisoners — to enlist as mercenaries for the Ukrainians.
The concluded agreement involved the release of militants detained by HTS in exchange for 250 Ukrainian military experts providing training, particularly in the use of drones. The trainees include Turkmen Salafists tasked to manufacture drones and photograph potential Russian and allied Syrian military targets, particularly the 25th Division special forces and National Defense Forces in Hama, Aleppo, and Latakia.
But reports indicate that the seeds of this arrangement were being tested as early as October 2023, when Turkish intelligence operatives transported aircraft parts across the border to HTS, for use in a huge attack on the Syrian Military College in Homs city.
What is behind this proxy partnership?
This cooperation raises important questions about the nature and extent of the relationship between Kiev and these militant groups. Has this collaboration emerged recently, or are there deeper historical ties? More crucially, what are the shared objectives of the US, Ukraine, and the extremist organizations involved in this proxy partnership?
The roots of this cooperation between Kiev and the HTS militants go back to the start of the Russian Special Military Operation in February 2022. On 8 March, 2022, Russian media Outlet Sputnik, citing Russian defense officials, reported that around 450 Idlib militants belonging to Al-Turkistani, Hurras al-Dein, and Ansar al-Tawhid were transported to Ukraine to fight Russian forces - which they did, only three days after passing through NATO-member Turkiye.
In late October 2022, the Chechen leader of the Idlib-based “Ajnad al Kavkaz” (Anjad of the Caucasus) group, Rustam Azayev - also known as Abdul Hakim al-Shishani - arrived with a group of militants to Ukraine. He appears in a video to confirm his actual presence on an eastern Ukrainian battlefront as part of the Chechen “Sheikh Mansour” battalion, which was fighting Russians alongside Ukrainian forces. This coincided with the arrival of a new group of militants to Ukraine, according to US-based Al-Monitor, who had defected from the “Albanian Group” battalion, affiliated with HTS' extremist wing.
Furthermore, on 9 September, the Turkish newspaper Aydinlik confirmed that there was daily contact between the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kirill Budanov, and the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, in order to complete the sending of fighters to Ukraine.
US military forces occupying northeastern Syria play a connection and transportation role in this setup. It is the main actor in managing these various conflict zones and coordinating the positions and cooperation of its proxies.
In early August 2024, the US facilitated the arrival of Ukrainian experts in areas near Jabal al-Zawiya in Idlib and helped transfer aircraft parts - in exchange for transporting extremist fighters, via US bases in Syria, to areas north of Donetsk Oblast.
The agreement between Ukrainian forces and Syrian militant groups, brokered with US and NATO involvement, includes several critical components.
Ukrainian military personnel have been tasked with training militants in drone warfare, enhancing their capabilities to strike Russian targets in Syria. In return, these militant groups, with assistance from US forces operating in the region, have facilitated the transfer of fighters from Syria to Ukraine to bolster Ukrainian forces in their war with Russia.
The goals of the US, Ukraine, and Syrian extremist groups, while seemingly divergent on the surface, converge in important ways. For Washington, the use of proxy forces in Syria fits within a broader strategy of weakening Russia through a policy of attrition by spreading its military resources across multiple conflict zones.
This tactic is reminiscent of the Cold War strategy of draining adversaries' resources by involving them in costly and protracted conflicts.
What does each side stand to gain?
For Ukraine, the alliance with HTS militants provides several strategic advantages. By undermining Russian influence in Syria, Ukraine aims to pressure Russia on multiple fronts, forcing it to divert resources and attention away from the conflict in Ukraine.
Moreover, the influx of battle-hardened fighters from Syria and other regions provides Ukraine with additional manpower at a time when its forces are stretched thin, and the US is preoccupied with supporting Israel in what is now a regional war. This cooperation also serves as a way for Ukraine to retaliate against Damascus, and by extension, Iran, for their support of Russia in the current conflict.
The militant groups themselves benefit from this alliance in several key ways. With Turkiye edging toward reconciliation with Syria, and Russian-Iranian military cooperation advancing, these groups are left increasingly vulnerable. Aligning with Ukraine and NATO provides them with new resources and support, ensuring their continued survival in the face of changing regional dynamics.
The cooperation also offers Syrian extremists access to advanced technology, particularly in drone warfare, which has become a crucial element in their ongoing fight against Syrian and Russian forces.
The US plays a pivotal role in facilitating this cooperation, not only by providing logistical support but also by supplying advanced weaponry and coordinating efforts between Ukrainian forces and Syrian militants.
Opportunity amid war in West Asia
As this conflict evolves, the alliance could deepen further, with more fighters and resources flowing between Syria and Ukraine, especially while Syria’s ally Hezbollah in Lebanon is now engaged in fighting an existential battle with Israel.
It is also possible, however, that this cooperation may be short-lived, depending on shifts in US foreign policy or the outcome of negotiations between Russia, Turkiye, and Syria.
The continued use of proxy warfare by the US, particularly through the use of militant groups and transnational terrorism, is likely to have lasting and far-reaching consequences. In the Syrian context, the inability or unwillingness of major powers to engage in direct military confrontation has led to a protracted conflict that shows no signs of resolution.
The involvement of Ukrainian forces in Syria, under the pretext of countering Russian influence, serves to prolong this conflict and deepen divisions. This strategy ensures that the US remains a key stakeholder in destabilizing conflicts like the one in Syria.
The evolving cooperation between Ukrainian forces, extremist groups in Syria, and US interests represents a broader trend in Washington’s proxy warfare strategy. One potential scenario is that this partnership will continue to expand, with Ukrainian intelligence fostering deeper ties with extremist factions in Idlib that oppose any reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus.
This could also extend to Kurdish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria, creating a shared benefit for all parties involved. The militant groups may receive advanced weaponry, such as drones, without Washington being directly implicated, in exchange for providing additional fighters, including ISIS elements currently held in Kurdish-run prisons, to support Ukraine against Russia.
https://thecradle.co/articles/us-tees-u ... nst-russia
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Who comes to Odessa?
October 13, 21:07
Who comes to Odessa?
Analytical material on dry cargo ships calling at Odessa ports.
The cost of insurance for ships heading to Ukrainian ports has skyrocketed. Oh, what happened?
Bloomberg reports that over the past week, insurance for ships passing through Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea has risen significantly. Now it exceeds 1% of the value of the ship. For a ship worth $ 50 million, this means an additional $ 125,000 per voyage. All this is not without reason, because recently the Russian Aerospace Forces have been striking Odessa ports when ships call there to unload, after the strikes both the port infrastructure and the ships themselves are destroyed.
"We hear that civilian ships, like the cargo in them, detonate like real ammunition, but perhaps it is just incendiary grain there.
From the very beginning of the grain deal, I said that they carry weapons and strike from these ships (UAVs and missiles, then remove the guides for the missiles from the deck).
B 6 cargo ships approached Odessa roadstead (they are marked with green triangles on the explication).
Vessel Anna Bella. Cargo general cargo
About the route: from the port of Burgas (Bulgaria) to the port of Odessa (Ukraine).
BG BOG - Odessa
The vessel ANNABELLA (IMO: 8919788) is a general purpose cargo vessel and flies the flag of Comoros. Its length overall (LOA) is 122.6 meters, and its width is 21.5 meters.
AMIRA SARA (IMO: 9691503) is a dry cargo vessel sailing under the flag of Barbados. Its length overall (LOA) is 169.37 meters, and its width is 27.2 meters.
The vessel ZELEK STAR (IMO: 9379117) is a general purpose cargo vessel and flies the flag of Panama. Its overall length (LOA) is 90 meters, and its width is 14 meters.
We can assume that throughout the SVO, from its very beginning, Ukrainian ports received weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, delivered under different flags, by civilian cargo ships. In addition, these ships could be used to strike Crimea and Sevastopol - UAVs, unmanned aerial vehicles and missile weapons.
And what did they bring? ",
@PapaKottt - zinc
The only strange thing here is that they began to sink them only relatively recently. Something has changed in the approaches.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/# ... approaches.
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Journalism is BROKEN. He Lost His Job for Fact-Checking REUTERS on Russia-Ukraine War. | Interview with Mick Hall
October 13, 2024
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/jou ... mick-hall/
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/14/2024
“Ukraine and Slovakia will create an energy hub for Eastern Europe,” headlined Ukrainska Pravda on Monday , citing the words of Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal after his meeting with President Robert Fico, who has recovered and returned to his post after the assassination attempt that put his life in danger. Although the Ukrainian media mainly focused on news about energy cooperation, the Slovak president did not hesitate to repeat to Shmyhal his position regarding Ukraine’s geopolitical position. As Politico stated on Monday , the Slovak president said on Sunday in an appearance in a Slovak media that “as long as I lead the government, I will direct the deputies under my control as chairman of the party [Smer] to never accept Ukraine’s accession.” According to Strana , Fico insisted on his “100%” support for Ukraine’s entry into the European Union, but not into NATO. This "no" attitude towards Ukraine's entry into the military bloc is compounded by Fico's intention to resume normal relations with Russia if the war ends during his term in office. However, as his meeting with the Ukrainian prime minister shows, this position is not in contradiction with cooperating with kyiv on issues affecting both countries, including energy.
“Slovakia will transfer 500,000 euros for Ukraine’s energy needs,” Ukrainska Pravda added to its report on the energy hub agreed by the two countries, which, according to Shmyhal, will aim to “use gas storage facilities, develop the Mukachevo interconnector and cooperate in the nuclear industry. This will strengthen not only the energy security of our two countries, but also that of the entire Eastern European region.” At the meeting, Kiev obtained half a million euros from one of the poorest countries in the European Union for “energy needs and restoration of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure within the framework of the Bilateral Cooperation Plan in the field of development of Slovakia” and an agreement that should benefit both states. “I would like to emphasize that Slovakia is the second most important country in terms of exporting both emergency and commercial electricity to Ukraine,” Shmyhal added, making clear the role of the neighbouring country in Kiev’s attempt to reduce the effects of Russian attacks on the national electricity system.
However, cooperation has its limits, and in this case, war and geopolitical positions play an important role. Before the meeting, Fico had asked Ukraine for a “friendly gesture” on the gas issue, after Kiev had already stopped the transit of Russian oil to countries such as Slovakia. Gas gives Ukraine a bargaining chip, a pressure chip and a blackmail card that Kiev will not give up. “After meeting Fico on Monday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed that Kiev would not renew the transit contract between Naftogaz, the Ukrainian energy company, and Russia’s Gazprom, which expires at the end of this year,” wrote the Financial Times on Monday . Ukrainian media echoed Ukraine’s refusal to continue dealing with Gazprom even if it were to be done at the expense of neighbouring countries that are helping Kiev to alleviate the energy crisis it is currently suffering from due to the war.
Over the past decade, Ukraine's stance on the gas issue has been a reflection of the country's economic and political situation. Its ability to stop the flow of gas at any time has already been used in the past as a tool of pressure on both the East and the West, and the likely involvement of the Ukrainian state in the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline would confirm Ukraine's willingness to do everything in its power to make a project that is contrary to its interests unviable. As in the case of the possible halting of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, which would harm countries such as Slovakia, Austria and Hungary, the attack on the Baltic Sea gas pipeline primarily affects the second largest provider of military assistance to Ukraine, Germany, a factor that did not prevent the attack on the infrastructure.
But gas transit brings in revenues that Ukraine, which has made clear its intention to break with Gazprom once and for all in its emphasis on completely isolating its economy from Russia and renouncing all economic relations with its eastern neighbour, does not want to give up. In this balancing act between refusing to reach an agreement with the Russian national gas company and losing a significant flow of money, Ukraine would be willing to continue transit if it is the Western countries that reach agreements with Russia. This is a repeat of the situation in which Kiev claimed during the years of war in Donbass to have completely freed itself from Russian gas, replaced by gas purchased precisely from Slovakia, which has no production and which received its own from the Russian Federation. In other words, Gazprom sent gas through Ukraine to Slovakia to then be sent to Ukraine. In this way, Kiev kept its transit revenues and could claim that it did not deal with Gazprom.
The current situation is marked by Ukraine's perceived strength. After the meeting with Fico, Shmyhal admitted the vulnerable situation in which countries such as Slovakia find themselves due to what he perceives as a dependence on Russian gas, which he hopes will decrease in the future through diversification. Able to give lessons to its neighbours despite being a country whose economic survival depends on foreign subsidies, Ukraine defended the possibility of using its transit system to export Azerbaijani gas to the European Union - which would presumably also include Russian gas, especially given the good relations between Baku and Moscow - and did not hide the fact that its aim is to obtain sanctions against Russian gas. kyiv does not want to lose its privileged position in gas transit, nor the income it brings, but it does want to decide which gas its neighbours, who are currently helping it to alleviate its crisis, should buy.
The media that reported the news also forget one detail. The current agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which has allowed gas transit to continue uninterrupted despite the war, was the main outcome of the Normandy Format summit of heads of state and government held in December 2019 in Paris. For weeks, the then newly elected President Volodymyr Zelensky begged his allies and also Vladimir Putin to hold a meeting. Zelensky was even forced to confront the soldiers of the Azov regiment, who refused to comply with the order to partially withdraw from an area of just two square kilometers under an agreement reached more than two years earlier. It was the Russian president's demand for agreeing to hold the meeting. That summit, like the current statements, was a reflection of Ukraine's priorities. Although it was theoretically presented as an opportunity to move forward in resolving the conflict in Donbass via the Minsk agreements, the war was a secondary issue and the gas agreement was the only tangible result of that summit. There was no progress in finding a solution to the war, something of little interest to kyiv given that it involved political concessions, but Ukraine guaranteed itself five more years of income from the transit of Russian gas. A raw material that it now intends to sanction, but from which it continues to obtain income.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/14/el-ga ... -regional/
Google Translator
*****
Every misfortune begins anew: about another shooting (this time by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk Oblast)
October 13, 2024
Rybar
As if there weren't enough events this Sunday, the world began to scream at the top of their voices about the shooting of Ukrainian UAV operators near the village of Zelenyi Shlyakh in the Kursk region .
Such shootings on the front lines on both sides of the front are far from uncommon .
One of the most common scenarios is an attempt to escape and seize weapons , resulting in the prisoners being eliminated as part of an armed struggle.
Killing an enemy during the heat of battle , when the enemy's machine gun simply jammed or ran out of ammo, is also a reality that is typical for all conflict zones.
Often, prisoners become a burdensome burden : it is not always possible to even assign guards to them when you are conducting effective assault operations, and the success of your comrades depends on your advancement.
Fighting from high offices and demanding humanity is good until you find yourself on the front lines and in a "you or them" situation. When there is an opportunity, prisoners are taken.
But when we talk about our "old territories" and the "invasion of occupiers" into the Russian borderland, then all the humanitarian nonsense can be left aside. Especially if we consider that at the official level in Russia (listen to the briefings of the top officials) all the intruders are terrorists .
Has anyone forgotten that at first “there were no Ukrainian troops” (and there is no mercy for the officially recognized terrorist organizations “Russian Volunteer Corps” and “Legion of Freedom of Russia” ), so all those who entered under a “false flag” could easily be considered terrorists?
Has anyone forgotten how members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Main Intelligence Directorate began to take responsibility for the murder of civilians, explosions, terrorist attacks, and boast about it?
There is no point in justifying or blaming anyone in this case: there are people on the ground whose task is to clear Russian territory of invading forces. And as far as we can judge, this task has been activated again this week and successfully.
And the calls for compliance with the Geneva Convention from some Ukrainian ombudsmen look like some kind of schizophrenic cynicism: if earlier such characters declared that anything can be done with Russian troops, now they paint themselves white and try on fluffy quad bike clothes.
https://rybar.ru/liha-beda-nachalo-nach ... j-oblasti/
Google Translator
*******
Responsible Statecraft:
Diplomacy Watch: Russia capitalizing on battlefield surge
October 12, 2024
By Aaron Sobczak, Responsible Statecraft, 10/4/24
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to increase the size of Russia’s military even while it’s seeing regular successes on the battlefield. These developments are leading some in the Ukrainian military and civilians alike to become more open to the idea of talks aimed at ending the war.
The Kremlin is currently negotiating a new military budget proposal of upwards of $145 billion which would mean that, if signed into law, Russia’s 2025 defense spending would grow to 32.5% of the budget, a 4.2% increase from this year’s spending.
This proposed increase coincides with the Kremlin’s recent announcement that it would revise the country’s nuclear doctrine, saying that Russia could respond to a conventional attack with nuclear weapons and that it would consider any attack that is supported by a nuclear power to be a “joint attack” — a policy presumably meant to deter at any Ukrainian attack inside Russian territory with U.S/Western weapons.
And even as the Russian military is increasingly seeing more successes on the battlefield, it’s about to increase in manpower. To support his previous order to add 180,000 troops to the military, Putin has called up 133,000 Russian men to serve as part of the autumn draft.
Meanwhile, it appears the Ukrainian military and public at large are growing war weary. The Financial Times reported this week that “Ukraine is heading into what may be its darkest moment of the war so far” in the face of increasing battlefield losses, its struggles to replenish military ranks, and the prospects of facing another winter with regular power and heating outages. “Society is exhausted,” said the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee chair.
FT points out a poll conducted this summer by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology for the National Democratic Institute which found that 57% of the public supported negotiations with the Kremlin, up from 33% the previous year. Additionally, 55% are opposed to a deal that would include ceding land to Russia, down from 87% last year.
FT also noted that according to KIIS polling, “making any deal acceptable that allows Russia to stay in the parts of Ukraine it has seized since its first invasion in 2014 will hinge on obtaining meaningful Western security guarantees, which for Kyiv means NATO membership.”
Diplomats engaging with Ukraine also report that Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials seem more open to peace talks. One diplomat said, “We’re talking more and more openly about how this ends and what Ukraine would have to give up in order to get a permanent peace deal.”
In other Ukraine war news this week:
Reuters reports that China and Brazil, amongst others, compiled a peace plan to present to Ukraine and Russia last Friday. Seventeen countries met in New York during the last United Nations General Assembly meeting to discuss a potential end to the war, with China chairing the talks. Zelenskyy showed no interest in the peace plan, and questioned why they were drawing up alternative plants to his own.
Incoming NATO secretary-general says that the alliance will support Ukraine regardless of who wins in America’s November election. According to The Wall Street Journal, new Secretary-GeneralMark Rutte said, “I am absolutely convinced that on this issue, they both see what is necessary.” He added confidently that “supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do. And it is also an investment in our own security.”
In September 30th’s State Department Briefing;
State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller responded to a question regarding Ukraine’s ability to strike at Russian targets. Miller reiterated that Ukraine does not need permission to strike Russian targets with its own weapons. He also stated that the United States had given Kyiv permission to use some American weapons in a retaliatory fashion against targets in Russia.
He was pressed as to why Ukrainians are limited as to which American weapons they can use to strike targets in Russia. In his response he said, “We look at all of the capabilities and all the tactics and all the support that we provide Ukraine in totality, and look at how – when we approve any new weapon system or any new tactic, we look at how it’s going to affect the entire battlefield and Ukraine’s entire strategy. And that’s what we’ll continue to do.”
In this week’s October 2nd State Department Briefing;
A reporter asked Mr. Miller if Washington was ready to start implementing Ukraine’s proposed victory plan, to which he responded with, “We took that plan, we reviewed it, we saw a number of productive steps in it. We’re going to engage with them about it.”
Finally, Miller interacted with a question which compared US support of Israel during the recent Iranian missile strike to the support which Ukraine has received. He explained that the United States gives Ukraine the support needed to shoot down missiles, saying that “we have made clear that we support Ukraine’s right to defend itself not just in words but in deeds, and we have provided them with the equipment they need to shoot down missiles.”
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/res ... eld-surge/
Jimmy Dore: HALF Of Ukraine Land Has Been Sold To Western Corporations!
October 12, 2024 1 Comment
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/jim ... porations/
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US tees up Ukrainian and Syrian jihadi proxies in fight against Russia
In a familiar strategy of backing proxy forces, the US has orchestrated a toxic alliance between Ukrainian forces and Syrian extremists to counter Russia's influence — continuing Washington's decades-long pattern of leveraging terror groups to pursue its geopolitical goals.
Mohamed Nader Al-Omari
OCT 13, 2024
Photo Credit: The Cradle
Decades after the end of the Cold War, the US continues to employ proxy warfare as a central strategy in its confrontations with major global rivals, particularly Russia and China. This approach enables the US to extend its influence and pursue its geopolitical objectives without direct military engagement, instead relying on third-party actors to do the heavy lifting.
This has played out in various global crises, despite the potential for blowback and undermining international peace and security. A recent and striking example of this strategy can be observed in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, where the US has provided significant support to the latter in its fight against Moscow.
The Kiev-Idlib axis
One notable instance of this proxy war occurred in mid-September, when Ukrainian forces, in coordination with militant groups in Syria, including Al-Qaeda offshoot Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS - formerly known as Al-Nusra Front), launched a series of drone attacks on Russian military facilities in Syria.
The group has since denied the claims, dismissing them as a “Russian disinformation campaign aimed at justifying further military action in Syria’s liberated areas.”
The operation involved Ukrainian private mercenaries called "Khimek,” affiliated with the Main Directorate of Ukrainian Intelligence, working alongside Idlib-based militants to target a drone production and testing site in the southeastern suburbs of Aleppo, according to a Kiev Post report on 18 September.
The following day, further drone attacks were carried out on ten Syrian military positions in Aleppo, the southern Idlib countryside, and in northeastern Latakia. In early October, two major Russian military sites - the Hmeimim Base and a weapons depot near the coastal city of Jableh — were repeatedly targeted.
But these operations were not the first initiative aided by Ukrainian military and intelligence agents in Syria. On 26 July, in what militant forces described as a “devastating” and “complex” strike, they targeted Kuweires military airport in Aleppo's east, used as an airbase by Russian troops, one day after Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in Moscow.
The alliance between Ukrainian intelligence and Syrian militant groups, with support from NATO, is a relatively new but significant development. It began earlier this year, when a Ukrainian delegation visited Idlib to negotiate with the HTS leadership for the release of several Chechen, Georgian, and Uighur militants being held in HTS prisons — estimated at between 750 and 900 prisoners — to enlist as mercenaries for the Ukrainians.
The concluded agreement involved the release of militants detained by HTS in exchange for 250 Ukrainian military experts providing training, particularly in the use of drones. The trainees include Turkmen Salafists tasked to manufacture drones and photograph potential Russian and allied Syrian military targets, particularly the 25th Division special forces and National Defense Forces in Hama, Aleppo, and Latakia.
But reports indicate that the seeds of this arrangement were being tested as early as October 2023, when Turkish intelligence operatives transported aircraft parts across the border to HTS, for use in a huge attack on the Syrian Military College in Homs city.
What is behind this proxy partnership?
This cooperation raises important questions about the nature and extent of the relationship between Kiev and these militant groups. Has this collaboration emerged recently, or are there deeper historical ties? More crucially, what are the shared objectives of the US, Ukraine, and the extremist organizations involved in this proxy partnership?
The roots of this cooperation between Kiev and the HTS militants go back to the start of the Russian Special Military Operation in February 2022. On 8 March, 2022, Russian media Outlet Sputnik, citing Russian defense officials, reported that around 450 Idlib militants belonging to Al-Turkistani, Hurras al-Dein, and Ansar al-Tawhid were transported to Ukraine to fight Russian forces - which they did, only three days after passing through NATO-member Turkiye.
In late October 2022, the Chechen leader of the Idlib-based “Ajnad al Kavkaz” (Anjad of the Caucasus) group, Rustam Azayev - also known as Abdul Hakim al-Shishani - arrived with a group of militants to Ukraine. He appears in a video to confirm his actual presence on an eastern Ukrainian battlefront as part of the Chechen “Sheikh Mansour” battalion, which was fighting Russians alongside Ukrainian forces. This coincided with the arrival of a new group of militants to Ukraine, according to US-based Al-Monitor, who had defected from the “Albanian Group” battalion, affiliated with HTS' extremist wing.
Furthermore, on 9 September, the Turkish newspaper Aydinlik confirmed that there was daily contact between the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kirill Budanov, and the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, in order to complete the sending of fighters to Ukraine.
US military forces occupying northeastern Syria play a connection and transportation role in this setup. It is the main actor in managing these various conflict zones and coordinating the positions and cooperation of its proxies.
In early August 2024, the US facilitated the arrival of Ukrainian experts in areas near Jabal al-Zawiya in Idlib and helped transfer aircraft parts - in exchange for transporting extremist fighters, via US bases in Syria, to areas north of Donetsk Oblast.
The agreement between Ukrainian forces and Syrian militant groups, brokered with US and NATO involvement, includes several critical components.
Ukrainian military personnel have been tasked with training militants in drone warfare, enhancing their capabilities to strike Russian targets in Syria. In return, these militant groups, with assistance from US forces operating in the region, have facilitated the transfer of fighters from Syria to Ukraine to bolster Ukrainian forces in their war with Russia.
The goals of the US, Ukraine, and Syrian extremist groups, while seemingly divergent on the surface, converge in important ways. For Washington, the use of proxy forces in Syria fits within a broader strategy of weakening Russia through a policy of attrition by spreading its military resources across multiple conflict zones.
This tactic is reminiscent of the Cold War strategy of draining adversaries' resources by involving them in costly and protracted conflicts.
What does each side stand to gain?
For Ukraine, the alliance with HTS militants provides several strategic advantages. By undermining Russian influence in Syria, Ukraine aims to pressure Russia on multiple fronts, forcing it to divert resources and attention away from the conflict in Ukraine.
Moreover, the influx of battle-hardened fighters from Syria and other regions provides Ukraine with additional manpower at a time when its forces are stretched thin, and the US is preoccupied with supporting Israel in what is now a regional war. This cooperation also serves as a way for Ukraine to retaliate against Damascus, and by extension, Iran, for their support of Russia in the current conflict.
The militant groups themselves benefit from this alliance in several key ways. With Turkiye edging toward reconciliation with Syria, and Russian-Iranian military cooperation advancing, these groups are left increasingly vulnerable. Aligning with Ukraine and NATO provides them with new resources and support, ensuring their continued survival in the face of changing regional dynamics.
The cooperation also offers Syrian extremists access to advanced technology, particularly in drone warfare, which has become a crucial element in their ongoing fight against Syrian and Russian forces.
The US plays a pivotal role in facilitating this cooperation, not only by providing logistical support but also by supplying advanced weaponry and coordinating efforts between Ukrainian forces and Syrian militants.
Opportunity amid war in West Asia
As this conflict evolves, the alliance could deepen further, with more fighters and resources flowing between Syria and Ukraine, especially while Syria’s ally Hezbollah in Lebanon is now engaged in fighting an existential battle with Israel.
It is also possible, however, that this cooperation may be short-lived, depending on shifts in US foreign policy or the outcome of negotiations between Russia, Turkiye, and Syria.
The continued use of proxy warfare by the US, particularly through the use of militant groups and transnational terrorism, is likely to have lasting and far-reaching consequences. In the Syrian context, the inability or unwillingness of major powers to engage in direct military confrontation has led to a protracted conflict that shows no signs of resolution.
The involvement of Ukrainian forces in Syria, under the pretext of countering Russian influence, serves to prolong this conflict and deepen divisions. This strategy ensures that the US remains a key stakeholder in destabilizing conflicts like the one in Syria.
The evolving cooperation between Ukrainian forces, extremist groups in Syria, and US interests represents a broader trend in Washington’s proxy warfare strategy. One potential scenario is that this partnership will continue to expand, with Ukrainian intelligence fostering deeper ties with extremist factions in Idlib that oppose any reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus.
This could also extend to Kurdish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria, creating a shared benefit for all parties involved. The militant groups may receive advanced weaponry, such as drones, without Washington being directly implicated, in exchange for providing additional fighters, including ISIS elements currently held in Kurdish-run prisons, to support Ukraine against Russia.
https://thecradle.co/articles/us-tees-u ... nst-russia
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Who comes to Odessa?
October 13, 21:07
Who comes to Odessa?
Analytical material on dry cargo ships calling at Odessa ports.
The cost of insurance for ships heading to Ukrainian ports has skyrocketed. Oh, what happened?
Bloomberg reports that over the past week, insurance for ships passing through Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea has risen significantly. Now it exceeds 1% of the value of the ship. For a ship worth $ 50 million, this means an additional $ 125,000 per voyage. All this is not without reason, because recently the Russian Aerospace Forces have been striking Odessa ports when ships call there to unload, after the strikes both the port infrastructure and the ships themselves are destroyed.
"We hear that civilian ships, like the cargo in them, detonate like real ammunition, but perhaps it is just incendiary grain there.
From the very beginning of the grain deal, I said that they carry weapons and strike from these ships (UAVs and missiles, then remove the guides for the missiles from the deck).
B 6 cargo ships approached Odessa roadstead (they are marked with green triangles on the explication).
Vessel Anna Bella. Cargo general cargo
About the route: from the port of Burgas (Bulgaria) to the port of Odessa (Ukraine).
BG BOG - Odessa
The vessel ANNABELLA (IMO: 8919788) is a general purpose cargo vessel and flies the flag of Comoros. Its length overall (LOA) is 122.6 meters, and its width is 21.5 meters.
AMIRA SARA (IMO: 9691503) is a dry cargo vessel sailing under the flag of Barbados. Its length overall (LOA) is 169.37 meters, and its width is 27.2 meters.
The vessel ZELEK STAR (IMO: 9379117) is a general purpose cargo vessel and flies the flag of Panama. Its overall length (LOA) is 90 meters, and its width is 14 meters.
We can assume that throughout the SVO, from its very beginning, Ukrainian ports received weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, delivered under different flags, by civilian cargo ships. In addition, these ships could be used to strike Crimea and Sevastopol - UAVs, unmanned aerial vehicles and missile weapons.
And what did they bring? ",
@PapaKottt - zinc
The only strange thing here is that they began to sink them only relatively recently. Something has changed in the approaches.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/# ... approaches.
Google Translator
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Journalism is BROKEN. He Lost His Job for Fact-Checking REUTERS on Russia-Ukraine War. | Interview with Mick Hall
October 13, 2024
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/jou ... mick-hall/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V
NATO as a cause, consequence and solution
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/15/2024
Whether as a cause, consequence or even a solution, NATO has been part of the discourse of the Ukrainian conflict since its beginning. In 2014, even before the fighting began, the Euro-Atlantic option chosen by the new government, then a minority among the population according to polls, was one of the aspects highlighted by those who demonstrated or took up arms against what they perceived as a coup d’état that sought to impose this policy as part of its regime change. For years, Ukraine has demanded from its allies a clear timetable to implement what the Alliance already promised at the 2008 summit in Bucharest: that like Georgia, it “will become a member of NATO”. The lack of concreteness of this promise has been something that kyiv has fought against and continues to fight against since the victory at Maidan, an unrenounceable objective for the political class, which has gradually been introduced into society and which has been consolidated with the Russian invasion, after which security has been equated with membership of the Alliance.
NATO was also one of the aspects that Russia wanted to negotiate with the United States, the country that has always been in charge of the bloc. During the last months of 2021 and the first weeks of 2022, when military preparations had already begun, Moscow's coercive diplomacy suggested that the options were either an agreement or war. Compliance with the Minsk agreements to resolve the Donbass conflict and NATO's refusal to extend itself to Russia's borders in Ukraine were the two points that Russia demanded to negotiate. The second showed the failure of the previous seven years, in which Moscow failed to get Ukraine's allies - primarily Germany and, to a lesser extent, France, since the United States and the United Kingdom had shown even less interest in peace agreements than kyiv - to exert pressure in favour of the implementation of the only peace agreement that has existed in this war. The NATO issue reflected a concern that had existed in the Russian elites since the late 1990s, the seemingly endless expansion of the Cold War Alliance into Russian territory, which clearly reflected that there was no Western will to create a continental security architecture and that confrontation and containment of Russia was preferred over agreement. Ukraine's entry into NATO, or the installation of military bases in those countries, as Zelensky encouraged in 2021 as a clear provocation, was for Russia the red line that, due to the insignificance of its military power, was not the case in Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia.
The resounding refusal to negotiate with Russia condemned the situation to confrontation, and the unfinished conflict in Donbass gave rise to a military confrontation. The NATO issue thus became one of the causes of the war of 2022, very different in form and scale from that of 2014, but ultimately its heir. Over the two years since then, the idea has been constantly repeated that “Putin’s invasion” has achieved what propaganda had failed to do in decades: convincing the Ukrainian population of the need to join NATO. In this way, Western discourse has managed to hide its role in the rejection of a negotiation and, therefore, its share of responsibility for the outbreak of a war that could perhaps have been avoided, in order to present itself not as a cause but as a happy consequence.
The novelty of recent weeks is the media's attempt to present NATO as a solution. Under an approach that, instead of "peace for territories" could be called "NATO for territories", several major Western media have introduced into the discourse the possibility that the West would offer Ukraine rapid - perhaps even immediate - accession to the Alliance in exchange for negotiations with Russia to freeze the conflict on the front, turning it into a de facto border that, for Ukraine, would only be a temporary setback. Kiev would not officially give up any of the lost territories, but it would avoid the risk of continuing to lose ground, would guarantee its viability as a state and could present NATO membership to its population as a great victory. To do so, Zelensky would have to make a sharp change in his script, since even after the appearance of this theory in European media, he has been firm in rejecting this possibility. Both Zelensky and Ermak and Podolyak, two of the most influential people in the decision-making chain, have firmly denied that such an idea could be viable. However, the fact that the idea has been leaked to the press and picked up by media such as the deeply Atlanticist El País as an element of Western pressure on Ukraine indicates that it is beginning to be perceived as a possible way forward.
The idea would prioritise membership of the military bloc over the territory and population on the other side of the front, which kyiv still claims to care about, and is therefore an approach that Ukraine could only accept under pressure from its allies. The proposal would be even more unacceptable to Russia, as it would mean a border with NATO in a situation not of peace but of open conflict. However, this unviable proposal is not the only way to present NATO as a solution. “On his last day as NATO Secretary General, after 10 years in office, Jens Stoltenberg did not want to look back. But in an interview with Politico Magazine , he couldn't help but share a major regret: that the West did not intervene more forcefully on Ukraine's behalf after Russia began to bite into its territory in 2014,” wrote the American media last week to present one of the first in-depth interviews given by the now ex-Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, just a few days after he handed over to the Dutchman Mark Rütte.
“When I came to office,” Stoltenberg says, referring to 2014, when the Ukrainian conflict began, “one of my main tasks was to try to strengthen political dialogue with Russia,” he insists, without the slightest self-criticism in his speech. “But of course,” he continues, “what we saw over the years, and specifically in the fall of 2021 and early 2022, was that the space for political dialogue was extremely limited.” Stoltenberg recalls from those years Russia’s unacceptable demands to halt the expansion of a military alliance created for a world, that of the Cold War, that had not existed for three decades, but which has forgotten NATO’s refusal to negotiate. The Secretary General, who has lived through the entire Ukrainian conflict from his position at the head of the Alliance, also saw how Russia “began to take bites out of Ukraine,” as Politico asks him , but not the irregular change of government that precipitated the crisis and made possible the Russian capture of Crimea and the outbreak of the war in Donbass.
In Stoltenberg’s selective memory, in which there is no room to admit any mistakes of his own, NATO is as central as it has been to Russian discourse. “The most difficult discussion was, in a way, before the invasion. The war did not start in 2022, it started in 2014,” Stoltenberg says, admitting only that it did so “both with the illegal annexation of Crimea, and when Russia entered eastern Donbas in the summer of 2014.” In addition to Maidan, the NATO secretary general forgets that the war began as the anti-terrorist operation that Ukraine devised to justify using its armed forces within the national territory against the civilian population and for which it armed groups such as “the men in black” of Kharkiv, who that summer would become the Azov battalion.
“I remember one of my first visits was to Yavoriv, a NATO training centre for Ukraine in 2015. I worked hard to convince NATO allies to do more, to provide more military support, more training. Some allies did, but in a relatively limited way, and that was very difficult for many years because NATO policy was that NATO should not provide lethal support to Ukraine,” Stoltenberg adds, openly showing that the idea that the Alliance was trying to have a greater presence in the country was not something invented by Russian propaganda and making clear the willingness of the Secretary General to materially support a war in which Ukraine was not fighting against the Russian army but against two poorly armed and poorly trained militias. It goes without saying, of course, that since 2015 Kiev had in its hands a tool with which to end that war politically and without any need for lethal weapons from NATO. To do so would mean having to explain why continuing the war was Ukraine's political choice.
As in the spring of 2022, when the West seemed to prefer the continuation of the war rather than opting for negotiations, so too in the years of the Donbass conflict the solution was arms rather than diplomacy. “No one can say for sure, but I still believe that if we had armed Ukraine more after 2014, we could have prevented the Russian invasion – at least we would have raised the threshold for a full-scale invasion. We had the debate about the Javelin anti-tank weapons, which some allies considered a provocation. And again, there is little point in arguing about what we could have done. But, since you ask, I think we could actually have done more before the full-scale invasion. If we had delivered a fraction of the weapons we have delivered after 2022, we could have actually prevented war, rather than supporting Ukraine’s effort to defend itself in a war,” Stoltenberg insists. Stoltenberg's solution to a chronic conflict in which one of the parties to the agreement refused to implement what was signed was, of course, more NATO weapons.
The Alliance not only appears to be the solution for the future, but it even aims to be one for the past.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/15/la-ot ... -solucion/
Google Translator
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
I missed one important event. On September 18, the President awarded the 51st Donetsk Army the honorary title of "Guards".
The 51st Army was created from our 1st Army Corps, which was the DPR People's Militia a little earlier. And one of the moments of integration into the RF Armed Forces was that the Guards units ceased to be such. And these titles were earned before and during the first period of the SVO far from grandfathers' merits, but in hard combat work and in active campaigns of 14-15, and in the "strange war" and in the offensive of the 22nd.
I congratulate everyone on this event, this is not just recognition of the merits of the Corps, this is the final recognition of everyone: the militia, mobilization regiments and many others over 10 years of war.
And this, among other things, is the line under the stupid statements of many speakers who, in their personal interests, promoted theses about lazy Donetsk residents who fought incorrectly and generally lazily waited for the Russian soldier.
In the first days of the SVO, the Corps broke through the "old" line of enemy defense, where its best units were sitting, liberated Volnovakha, Mariupol and dozens of other cities and towns with heavy fighting. This was done by people who, after 6 years of Minsk, went through Shirokino, Promka, Zaitsevo and endured the war according to the "Minsk rules", when the spring compressed for years was released. Here they do not ask why the SVO began and what they are doing here, here they know.
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The weather in Kursk Oblast is changing.
On the issue of yesterday's whining of the Ukrainian Armed Forces about how they have a lot of wheeled vehicles, while the Russian Armed Forces rely on tracked vehicles, which gives the Russian Armed Forces an advantage in the conditions of the approaching thaw.
It is difficult to say who was surprised that General Mud is declared in Kursk Oblast in mid-autumn. Then they will whine that General Winter appears in Kursk Oblast in winter. And as a consequence, then they will declare the weather to be the reason for their defeats, as if no one had guessed what kind of weather there could be in autumn or winter.
At the same time, all the difficulties of thaw or winter have the same effect on our military, who are also forced to overcome weather conditions during combat operations.
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Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 14 October 2024) Main points:
The North group inflicted defeat on the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Liptsov and Vovchansk directions, the enemy lost up to 45 servicemen;
— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 490 people in the area of responsibility of the West group in one day;
— Russian air defence systems shot down a HIMARS projectile and 25 aircraft-type UAVs in one day;
— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 620 servicemen and three warehouses in the area of responsibility of the South group in one day;
— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 465 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the Center group, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated in the Dzerzhinsk area;
— During the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed Ukrainian manpower and equipment in 119 districts in one day;
— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 25 servicemen and an ammunition warehouse due to the actions of the Dnepr group.
Units of the "East" group of forces liberated the settlement of Levadnoye in the Zaporizhia region and occupied more advantageous positions.
They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 72nd mechanized , 58th motorized infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 110th territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Dobrovolye of the Donetsk People's Republic and Temirovka in the Zaporizhia region. The
enemy's losses amounted to 120 servicemen, an armored personnel carrier, four vehicles, 155-mm self-propelled artillery units "Bogdana" , as well as "Caesar" made in France.
Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated formations of the 141st infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 35th marine brigade and the 124th territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Stepnoye in the Zaporizhia region, Dneprovskoye and Antonovka in the Kherson region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 25 servicemen and four vehicles. An ammunition depot was destroyed.
Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups inflicted damage on concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 119 areas.
Air defense systems shot down a US-made HIMARS rocket and 25 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,605 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,625 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,472 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles, 16,146 field artillery pieces and mortars, 27,251 units of special military vehicles.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
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The Timing Of Kursk...
... operation was chosen by NATO planners with what you can see in this video--of which I explained at the very start of this "mission"--in mind. Correct--a presence of fairly thick forests which would have made (which they did) the work of Russian UAVs operators harder. Well, it still didn't decide the issue and UAVs still provided and continue to provide critical support for what now has become a mop-up operation or, rather, dig out operation in Kursk Oblast against VSU. It was one of the tactical and operational factors strongly considered by NATO, including the idea of digging in inside those forests for a PR effect. Reports of VSU "holding the ground" was a good propaganda fodder for the Western public but, as marine from the now legendary 810th Brigade explains and shows (in Russian but you do not really need an interpreter--everything is self-evident), they tried to pull this trick in a wrong country, against wrong armed forces and people. (Video at link.)
But, but... as you can see yourself, Pacer (Inokhodets) has very little problem with finding valuable VSU (in reality NATO's) armor and dealing with it by means of a very nasty ATGM Vikhr. (Video at link.)
As a result--most of the roads in the small pocket in Kursk Oblast are littered with NATO's armor. (Video at link.)
Not a good idea in both cases: either hiding in forests or, let alone, traveling in the open--it is death sentence in both cases, and as both Alexes correctly noted yesterday--Lavrov's "demand" to lift all sanctions off Russia is peremptory and... naturally designed to be refused by the US. Russians do it on purpose...
Russia can continue with SMO for as long as it wants, NATO... well, has lost and is out of resources, that includes the US. Meanwhile, Russians produced a horror for the West, officially--Excimer Lasers. First fully Russian lithography machines are going into series production early 2026. For now 350 nm, then, 90 and then... Mikron does produce 90 and 65 nm topology already, but this is done on Western technology. Now, however, a critical range for all military and most industrial applications is already being tested on Russian-made machines. So, I guess, no more cannibalizing those Western washing machines and... tanks to extract those precious microchips for Russian missiles, of which Russia ran out like... since ever. What a bummer, right?
Posted by smoothiex12 at 8:40 PM 101 Comments
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/10 ... kursk.html
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The fact of the presence of American military personnel in the Kursk region
October 14, 19:09
The fact of the presence of American military personnel in the Kursk region
Since it was recently revealed ( https://t.me/rusich_army/17460 ) that it was the Americans who were among the main orchestrators of the Ukrainian nationalists' attack on the Kursk region, it was expected that American servicemen also took part in the attack.
And the other day, confirmation appeared. Our soldiers in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region destroyed a Stryker infantry fighting vehicle, in which there was a crew of eight people directly from the USA.
This crew burned in the landings, with them were found PVS night vision devices, as well as their AR, FN SCAR, CZ BREN 2 series weapons.
Not long ago, Ukraine allowed foreign specialists to occupy officer positions in their army due to the difficult situation at the front, which requires an increase in the number of the army.
During the search of the BMP, technical documentation was found, something like a drill note, as well as a plan of action for the crew for various cases during combat operations, as well as various codes by which to report this or that incident to the authorities.
Our soldiers have come across mercenaries in the Kursk region more than once. But there are no regular American soldiers. We found one of the list on the banned social network Instagram. We are talking about Brandon Sanchez, who joined the ranks of the US Army in 2013 as a cook (something familiar).
And after years, Sanchez, it seems, decided to help Ukrainian nationalists on the battlefield, but now he has suffered the same fate as most adventurers from abroad.
https://t.me/rusich_army - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9439064.html
Ogedar Trophy
October 14, 22:57
Among the trophies taken by our troops in Ugledar, there are also similar rarities.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9439548.html
65 years ago Bandera was liquidated
October 15, 13:24
65 years ago, the Soviet secret services liquidated the collaborator Bandera, who was hiding from justice, in Munich.
The work was done in the best traditions of Pavel Sudoplatov and Naum Eitingon.
The positive experience of the "liquidation department" of the NKVD and KGB - into life!
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9440419.html
Google Translator
******
Vremyevskoye direction: liberation of Levandnoye
October 13, 2024
Rybar
After successful actions on the neighboring section of the front and the liberation of Ugledar, Russian troops went on the offensive in the Vremyevsk direction . The situation in this area after the completion of the cleansing in Staromayorskoye and Urozhaynoye in recent weeks was characterized by positional battles.
Last summer, the Russian Armed Forces retreated from Levadnoye during the enemy's counteroffensive and consolidated their positions several kilometers south of the village. Now, the Baltic Fleet's marines from the "Storm" detachment of the 336th separate brigade have made a breakthrough and completely dislodged the enemy from the settlement.
Enemy resources have disseminated information that motorized rifle units of the Russian Armed Forces participated in the attack, and that their successful actions were due to the low readiness of Ukrainian formations to repel attacks.
Footage of current control has appeared on the Internet, recording a significant advance of Russian fighters to the north. The relevance of the materials was confirmed by our sources on the ground; at the moment, the flag has been hoisted on the north-eastern outskirts of Levandnoye .
There are also reports of the Russian Armed Forces advancing in the direction of Novodarovka , located to the northeast. Here, the Russian army has the opportunity to advance along the highway linking the village with the Russian Priyutnoye . A 2S22 Bogdana self-propelled gun was hit in the Novodarovka area.
On the right flank of the direction, there is currently a lull north of Staromayorskoye and Urozhayny , where earlier a sapper unit of the Russian Armed Forces blew up a bridge near Makarovka , and fighters expanded the control zone on the left bank of the Mokrye Yaly River .
https://rybar.ru/vremevskoe-napravlenie ... levadnogo/
******
Coming events: Chat with John Helmer on ‘The Duran,’ Thursday, 17 October
As I have written on these pages recently, the Moscow based journalist John Helmer has published what amounts to harsh criticism of Vladimir Putin from some top generals over his alleged readiness to sacrifice Russian state interests in forthcoming peace negotiations to put an early end to the war and to spare his country’s oligarchs further economic losses. Helmer has directed attention to the negotiator of the almost concluded peace treaty initialed in Istanbul in March 2022, Vladimir Medinsky, suggesting that this former Minister of Culture was not up to the task of defending Russia. Helmer believes Medinsky will again be appointed as chief negotiator if and when the Russians and Ukrainians sit down together to negotiate a peace.
Following my rebuttal to this interpretation of Putin as weak given the tough as nails new edition of the Russian nuclear doctrine and my offhand rejection of skepticism over chances for a lasting peace to be concluded on Russia’s terms, John Helmer and I agreed to discuss the issue live on air. This chat is now scheduled to take place Thursday at 20.00 Central European Time on the website of The Duran and will be moderated by Alexander Mercouris.
Here and now, I telegraph my punches, so to speak, and explain on what I will base myself in this discussion.
I have made it clear that in between my periodic visits to Russia, when I put my Oxford dress shoes on the ground, spend time with friends in Petersburg and Moscow discussing current events, and listen to those taxi drivers or hair dressers who still delight in chatter with customers, my main source of information on Russian politics comes from Russian state television broadcasts in the Russian language for their domestic audience. In this regard, tonight’s News of the Week program hosted by Dmitry Kiselyov on Rossiya 1 leaves me in no doubt that Vladimir Putin will only sign a treaty that embodies the points he made public in June, to whit:
A cease-fire will come into effect only when the Ukrainian side agrees to withdraw its armed forces from the entirety of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts at their pre-2014 borders and actually begins this withdrawal
Ukraine will acknowledge that these regions and Crimea are now integral parts of the Russian Federation
Ukraine will foreswear membership in NATO and there will be no foreign military personnel or installations on its territory
Ukraine will ensure that Russian speakers on its territory are given full civil rights to practice their language and culture
All Western sanctions on Russia will be lifted
I remind readers that Dmitry Kiselyov is not just the presenter of this news program but is the general director of all Russian state news operations. Accordingly, his repeating these demands and putting up on screen Putin’s speech setting them forth makes it politically impossible for Putin to negotiate and sign anything less than this.
We can discuss many other things on Thursday, but I believe that this broadcast is the strongest argument against the notion that the Russians will lose at the negotiating table what they have won on the battlefield.
This entire issue of peace terms was presented tonight precisely because Western media in the past week have been talking up the need for a negotiated settlement of the war and are speaking as if Russia has been defeated, which is an outrageous lie as anyone following this war’s development knows full well.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/10/13/ ... 7-october/
Helmer's concerns about Putin are well-founded, based upon recent history. He has repeatedly bent over backwards to appease the US, starting with suggesting Russia join NATO, through two trial balloons suggesting that the Syrian government step down as part of a peace agreement, the farces of Minsk I &II and most recently Istanbul. That said, the Kursk incursion quite possibly was the straw that broke the camel's back.
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/15/2024
Whether as a cause, consequence or even a solution, NATO has been part of the discourse of the Ukrainian conflict since its beginning. In 2014, even before the fighting began, the Euro-Atlantic option chosen by the new government, then a minority among the population according to polls, was one of the aspects highlighted by those who demonstrated or took up arms against what they perceived as a coup d’état that sought to impose this policy as part of its regime change. For years, Ukraine has demanded from its allies a clear timetable to implement what the Alliance already promised at the 2008 summit in Bucharest: that like Georgia, it “will become a member of NATO”. The lack of concreteness of this promise has been something that kyiv has fought against and continues to fight against since the victory at Maidan, an unrenounceable objective for the political class, which has gradually been introduced into society and which has been consolidated with the Russian invasion, after which security has been equated with membership of the Alliance.
NATO was also one of the aspects that Russia wanted to negotiate with the United States, the country that has always been in charge of the bloc. During the last months of 2021 and the first weeks of 2022, when military preparations had already begun, Moscow's coercive diplomacy suggested that the options were either an agreement or war. Compliance with the Minsk agreements to resolve the Donbass conflict and NATO's refusal to extend itself to Russia's borders in Ukraine were the two points that Russia demanded to negotiate. The second showed the failure of the previous seven years, in which Moscow failed to get Ukraine's allies - primarily Germany and, to a lesser extent, France, since the United States and the United Kingdom had shown even less interest in peace agreements than kyiv - to exert pressure in favour of the implementation of the only peace agreement that has existed in this war. The NATO issue reflected a concern that had existed in the Russian elites since the late 1990s, the seemingly endless expansion of the Cold War Alliance into Russian territory, which clearly reflected that there was no Western will to create a continental security architecture and that confrontation and containment of Russia was preferred over agreement. Ukraine's entry into NATO, or the installation of military bases in those countries, as Zelensky encouraged in 2021 as a clear provocation, was for Russia the red line that, due to the insignificance of its military power, was not the case in Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia.
The resounding refusal to negotiate with Russia condemned the situation to confrontation, and the unfinished conflict in Donbass gave rise to a military confrontation. The NATO issue thus became one of the causes of the war of 2022, very different in form and scale from that of 2014, but ultimately its heir. Over the two years since then, the idea has been constantly repeated that “Putin’s invasion” has achieved what propaganda had failed to do in decades: convincing the Ukrainian population of the need to join NATO. In this way, Western discourse has managed to hide its role in the rejection of a negotiation and, therefore, its share of responsibility for the outbreak of a war that could perhaps have been avoided, in order to present itself not as a cause but as a happy consequence.
The novelty of recent weeks is the media's attempt to present NATO as a solution. Under an approach that, instead of "peace for territories" could be called "NATO for territories", several major Western media have introduced into the discourse the possibility that the West would offer Ukraine rapid - perhaps even immediate - accession to the Alliance in exchange for negotiations with Russia to freeze the conflict on the front, turning it into a de facto border that, for Ukraine, would only be a temporary setback. Kiev would not officially give up any of the lost territories, but it would avoid the risk of continuing to lose ground, would guarantee its viability as a state and could present NATO membership to its population as a great victory. To do so, Zelensky would have to make a sharp change in his script, since even after the appearance of this theory in European media, he has been firm in rejecting this possibility. Both Zelensky and Ermak and Podolyak, two of the most influential people in the decision-making chain, have firmly denied that such an idea could be viable. However, the fact that the idea has been leaked to the press and picked up by media such as the deeply Atlanticist El País as an element of Western pressure on Ukraine indicates that it is beginning to be perceived as a possible way forward.
The idea would prioritise membership of the military bloc over the territory and population on the other side of the front, which kyiv still claims to care about, and is therefore an approach that Ukraine could only accept under pressure from its allies. The proposal would be even more unacceptable to Russia, as it would mean a border with NATO in a situation not of peace but of open conflict. However, this unviable proposal is not the only way to present NATO as a solution. “On his last day as NATO Secretary General, after 10 years in office, Jens Stoltenberg did not want to look back. But in an interview with Politico Magazine , he couldn't help but share a major regret: that the West did not intervene more forcefully on Ukraine's behalf after Russia began to bite into its territory in 2014,” wrote the American media last week to present one of the first in-depth interviews given by the now ex-Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, just a few days after he handed over to the Dutchman Mark Rütte.
“When I came to office,” Stoltenberg says, referring to 2014, when the Ukrainian conflict began, “one of my main tasks was to try to strengthen political dialogue with Russia,” he insists, without the slightest self-criticism in his speech. “But of course,” he continues, “what we saw over the years, and specifically in the fall of 2021 and early 2022, was that the space for political dialogue was extremely limited.” Stoltenberg recalls from those years Russia’s unacceptable demands to halt the expansion of a military alliance created for a world, that of the Cold War, that had not existed for three decades, but which has forgotten NATO’s refusal to negotiate. The Secretary General, who has lived through the entire Ukrainian conflict from his position at the head of the Alliance, also saw how Russia “began to take bites out of Ukraine,” as Politico asks him , but not the irregular change of government that precipitated the crisis and made possible the Russian capture of Crimea and the outbreak of the war in Donbass.
In Stoltenberg’s selective memory, in which there is no room to admit any mistakes of his own, NATO is as central as it has been to Russian discourse. “The most difficult discussion was, in a way, before the invasion. The war did not start in 2022, it started in 2014,” Stoltenberg says, admitting only that it did so “both with the illegal annexation of Crimea, and when Russia entered eastern Donbas in the summer of 2014.” In addition to Maidan, the NATO secretary general forgets that the war began as the anti-terrorist operation that Ukraine devised to justify using its armed forces within the national territory against the civilian population and for which it armed groups such as “the men in black” of Kharkiv, who that summer would become the Azov battalion.
“I remember one of my first visits was to Yavoriv, a NATO training centre for Ukraine in 2015. I worked hard to convince NATO allies to do more, to provide more military support, more training. Some allies did, but in a relatively limited way, and that was very difficult for many years because NATO policy was that NATO should not provide lethal support to Ukraine,” Stoltenberg adds, openly showing that the idea that the Alliance was trying to have a greater presence in the country was not something invented by Russian propaganda and making clear the willingness of the Secretary General to materially support a war in which Ukraine was not fighting against the Russian army but against two poorly armed and poorly trained militias. It goes without saying, of course, that since 2015 Kiev had in its hands a tool with which to end that war politically and without any need for lethal weapons from NATO. To do so would mean having to explain why continuing the war was Ukraine's political choice.
As in the spring of 2022, when the West seemed to prefer the continuation of the war rather than opting for negotiations, so too in the years of the Donbass conflict the solution was arms rather than diplomacy. “No one can say for sure, but I still believe that if we had armed Ukraine more after 2014, we could have prevented the Russian invasion – at least we would have raised the threshold for a full-scale invasion. We had the debate about the Javelin anti-tank weapons, which some allies considered a provocation. And again, there is little point in arguing about what we could have done. But, since you ask, I think we could actually have done more before the full-scale invasion. If we had delivered a fraction of the weapons we have delivered after 2022, we could have actually prevented war, rather than supporting Ukraine’s effort to defend itself in a war,” Stoltenberg insists. Stoltenberg's solution to a chronic conflict in which one of the parties to the agreement refused to implement what was signed was, of course, more NATO weapons.
The Alliance not only appears to be the solution for the future, but it even aims to be one for the past.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/15/la-ot ... -solucion/
Google Translator
******
From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
I missed one important event. On September 18, the President awarded the 51st Donetsk Army the honorary title of "Guards".
The 51st Army was created from our 1st Army Corps, which was the DPR People's Militia a little earlier. And one of the moments of integration into the RF Armed Forces was that the Guards units ceased to be such. And these titles were earned before and during the first period of the SVO far from grandfathers' merits, but in hard combat work and in active campaigns of 14-15, and in the "strange war" and in the offensive of the 22nd.
I congratulate everyone on this event, this is not just recognition of the merits of the Corps, this is the final recognition of everyone: the militia, mobilization regiments and many others over 10 years of war.
And this, among other things, is the line under the stupid statements of many speakers who, in their personal interests, promoted theses about lazy Donetsk residents who fought incorrectly and generally lazily waited for the Russian soldier.
In the first days of the SVO, the Corps broke through the "old" line of enemy defense, where its best units were sitting, liberated Volnovakha, Mariupol and dozens of other cities and towns with heavy fighting. This was done by people who, after 6 years of Minsk, went through Shirokino, Promka, Zaitsevo and endured the war according to the "Minsk rules", when the spring compressed for years was released. Here they do not ask why the SVO began and what they are doing here, here they know.
***
The weather in Kursk Oblast is changing.
On the issue of yesterday's whining of the Ukrainian Armed Forces about how they have a lot of wheeled vehicles, while the Russian Armed Forces rely on tracked vehicles, which gives the Russian Armed Forces an advantage in the conditions of the approaching thaw.
It is difficult to say who was surprised that General Mud is declared in Kursk Oblast in mid-autumn. Then they will whine that General Winter appears in Kursk Oblast in winter. And as a consequence, then they will declare the weather to be the reason for their defeats, as if no one had guessed what kind of weather there could be in autumn or winter.
At the same time, all the difficulties of thaw or winter have the same effect on our military, who are also forced to overcome weather conditions during combat operations.
***
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 14 October 2024) Main points:
The North group inflicted defeat on the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Liptsov and Vovchansk directions, the enemy lost up to 45 servicemen;
— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 490 people in the area of responsibility of the West group in one day;
— Russian air defence systems shot down a HIMARS projectile and 25 aircraft-type UAVs in one day;
— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 620 servicemen and three warehouses in the area of responsibility of the South group in one day;
— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 465 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the Center group, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated in the Dzerzhinsk area;
— During the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed Ukrainian manpower and equipment in 119 districts in one day;
— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 25 servicemen and an ammunition warehouse due to the actions of the Dnepr group.
Units of the "East" group of forces liberated the settlement of Levadnoye in the Zaporizhia region and occupied more advantageous positions.
They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 72nd mechanized , 58th motorized infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 110th territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Dobrovolye of the Donetsk People's Republic and Temirovka in the Zaporizhia region. The
enemy's losses amounted to 120 servicemen, an armored personnel carrier, four vehicles, 155-mm self-propelled artillery units "Bogdana" , as well as "Caesar" made in France.
Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated formations of the 141st infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 35th marine brigade and the 124th territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Stepnoye in the Zaporizhia region, Dneprovskoye and Antonovka in the Kherson region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 25 servicemen and four vehicles. An ammunition depot was destroyed.
Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups inflicted damage on concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 119 areas.
Air defense systems shot down a US-made HIMARS rocket and 25 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,605 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,625 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,472 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles, 16,146 field artillery pieces and mortars, 27,251 units of special military vehicles.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
******
The Timing Of Kursk...
... operation was chosen by NATO planners with what you can see in this video--of which I explained at the very start of this "mission"--in mind. Correct--a presence of fairly thick forests which would have made (which they did) the work of Russian UAVs operators harder. Well, it still didn't decide the issue and UAVs still provided and continue to provide critical support for what now has become a mop-up operation or, rather, dig out operation in Kursk Oblast against VSU. It was one of the tactical and operational factors strongly considered by NATO, including the idea of digging in inside those forests for a PR effect. Reports of VSU "holding the ground" was a good propaganda fodder for the Western public but, as marine from the now legendary 810th Brigade explains and shows (in Russian but you do not really need an interpreter--everything is self-evident), they tried to pull this trick in a wrong country, against wrong armed forces and people. (Video at link.)
But, but... as you can see yourself, Pacer (Inokhodets) has very little problem with finding valuable VSU (in reality NATO's) armor and dealing with it by means of a very nasty ATGM Vikhr. (Video at link.)
As a result--most of the roads in the small pocket in Kursk Oblast are littered with NATO's armor. (Video at link.)
Not a good idea in both cases: either hiding in forests or, let alone, traveling in the open--it is death sentence in both cases, and as both Alexes correctly noted yesterday--Lavrov's "demand" to lift all sanctions off Russia is peremptory and... naturally designed to be refused by the US. Russians do it on purpose...
Russia can continue with SMO for as long as it wants, NATO... well, has lost and is out of resources, that includes the US. Meanwhile, Russians produced a horror for the West, officially--Excimer Lasers. First fully Russian lithography machines are going into series production early 2026. For now 350 nm, then, 90 and then... Mikron does produce 90 and 65 nm topology already, but this is done on Western technology. Now, however, a critical range for all military and most industrial applications is already being tested on Russian-made machines. So, I guess, no more cannibalizing those Western washing machines and... tanks to extract those precious microchips for Russian missiles, of which Russia ran out like... since ever. What a bummer, right?
Posted by smoothiex12 at 8:40 PM 101 Comments
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/10 ... kursk.html
******
The fact of the presence of American military personnel in the Kursk region
October 14, 19:09
The fact of the presence of American military personnel in the Kursk region
Since it was recently revealed ( https://t.me/rusich_army/17460 ) that it was the Americans who were among the main orchestrators of the Ukrainian nationalists' attack on the Kursk region, it was expected that American servicemen also took part in the attack.
And the other day, confirmation appeared. Our soldiers in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region destroyed a Stryker infantry fighting vehicle, in which there was a crew of eight people directly from the USA.
This crew burned in the landings, with them were found PVS night vision devices, as well as their AR, FN SCAR, CZ BREN 2 series weapons.
Not long ago, Ukraine allowed foreign specialists to occupy officer positions in their army due to the difficult situation at the front, which requires an increase in the number of the army.
During the search of the BMP, technical documentation was found, something like a drill note, as well as a plan of action for the crew for various cases during combat operations, as well as various codes by which to report this or that incident to the authorities.
Our soldiers have come across mercenaries in the Kursk region more than once. But there are no regular American soldiers. We found one of the list on the banned social network Instagram. We are talking about Brandon Sanchez, who joined the ranks of the US Army in 2013 as a cook (something familiar).
And after years, Sanchez, it seems, decided to help Ukrainian nationalists on the battlefield, but now he has suffered the same fate as most adventurers from abroad.
https://t.me/rusich_army - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9439064.html
Ogedar Trophy
October 14, 22:57
Among the trophies taken by our troops in Ugledar, there are also similar rarities.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9439548.html
65 years ago Bandera was liquidated
October 15, 13:24
65 years ago, the Soviet secret services liquidated the collaborator Bandera, who was hiding from justice, in Munich.
The work was done in the best traditions of Pavel Sudoplatov and Naum Eitingon.
The positive experience of the "liquidation department" of the NKVD and KGB - into life!
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9440419.html
Google Translator
******
Vremyevskoye direction: liberation of Levandnoye
October 13, 2024
Rybar
After successful actions on the neighboring section of the front and the liberation of Ugledar, Russian troops went on the offensive in the Vremyevsk direction . The situation in this area after the completion of the cleansing in Staromayorskoye and Urozhaynoye in recent weeks was characterized by positional battles.
Last summer, the Russian Armed Forces retreated from Levadnoye during the enemy's counteroffensive and consolidated their positions several kilometers south of the village. Now, the Baltic Fleet's marines from the "Storm" detachment of the 336th separate brigade have made a breakthrough and completely dislodged the enemy from the settlement.
Enemy resources have disseminated information that motorized rifle units of the Russian Armed Forces participated in the attack, and that their successful actions were due to the low readiness of Ukrainian formations to repel attacks.
Footage of current control has appeared on the Internet, recording a significant advance of Russian fighters to the north. The relevance of the materials was confirmed by our sources on the ground; at the moment, the flag has been hoisted on the north-eastern outskirts of Levandnoye .
There are also reports of the Russian Armed Forces advancing in the direction of Novodarovka , located to the northeast. Here, the Russian army has the opportunity to advance along the highway linking the village with the Russian Priyutnoye . A 2S22 Bogdana self-propelled gun was hit in the Novodarovka area.
On the right flank of the direction, there is currently a lull north of Staromayorskoye and Urozhayny , where earlier a sapper unit of the Russian Armed Forces blew up a bridge near Makarovka , and fighters expanded the control zone on the left bank of the Mokrye Yaly River .
https://rybar.ru/vremevskoe-napravlenie ... levadnogo/
******
Coming events: Chat with John Helmer on ‘The Duran,’ Thursday, 17 October
As I have written on these pages recently, the Moscow based journalist John Helmer has published what amounts to harsh criticism of Vladimir Putin from some top generals over his alleged readiness to sacrifice Russian state interests in forthcoming peace negotiations to put an early end to the war and to spare his country’s oligarchs further economic losses. Helmer has directed attention to the negotiator of the almost concluded peace treaty initialed in Istanbul in March 2022, Vladimir Medinsky, suggesting that this former Minister of Culture was not up to the task of defending Russia. Helmer believes Medinsky will again be appointed as chief negotiator if and when the Russians and Ukrainians sit down together to negotiate a peace.
Following my rebuttal to this interpretation of Putin as weak given the tough as nails new edition of the Russian nuclear doctrine and my offhand rejection of skepticism over chances for a lasting peace to be concluded on Russia’s terms, John Helmer and I agreed to discuss the issue live on air. This chat is now scheduled to take place Thursday at 20.00 Central European Time on the website of The Duran and will be moderated by Alexander Mercouris.
Here and now, I telegraph my punches, so to speak, and explain on what I will base myself in this discussion.
I have made it clear that in between my periodic visits to Russia, when I put my Oxford dress shoes on the ground, spend time with friends in Petersburg and Moscow discussing current events, and listen to those taxi drivers or hair dressers who still delight in chatter with customers, my main source of information on Russian politics comes from Russian state television broadcasts in the Russian language for their domestic audience. In this regard, tonight’s News of the Week program hosted by Dmitry Kiselyov on Rossiya 1 leaves me in no doubt that Vladimir Putin will only sign a treaty that embodies the points he made public in June, to whit:
A cease-fire will come into effect only when the Ukrainian side agrees to withdraw its armed forces from the entirety of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts at their pre-2014 borders and actually begins this withdrawal
Ukraine will acknowledge that these regions and Crimea are now integral parts of the Russian Federation
Ukraine will foreswear membership in NATO and there will be no foreign military personnel or installations on its territory
Ukraine will ensure that Russian speakers on its territory are given full civil rights to practice their language and culture
All Western sanctions on Russia will be lifted
I remind readers that Dmitry Kiselyov is not just the presenter of this news program but is the general director of all Russian state news operations. Accordingly, his repeating these demands and putting up on screen Putin’s speech setting them forth makes it politically impossible for Putin to negotiate and sign anything less than this.
We can discuss many other things on Thursday, but I believe that this broadcast is the strongest argument against the notion that the Russians will lose at the negotiating table what they have won on the battlefield.
This entire issue of peace terms was presented tonight precisely because Western media in the past week have been talking up the need for a negotiated settlement of the war and are speaking as if Russia has been defeated, which is an outrageous lie as anyone following this war’s development knows full well.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/10/13/ ... 7-october/
Helmer's concerns about Putin are well-founded, based upon recent history. He has repeatedly bent over backwards to appease the US, starting with suggesting Russia join NATO, through two trial balloons suggesting that the Syrian government step down as part of a peace agreement, the farces of Minsk I &II and most recently Istanbul. That said, the Kursk incursion quite possibly was the straw that broke the camel's back.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V
Recruitment and the far right: “I love the Third Brigade”
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/16/2024
The United States is putting pressure on Zelensky to lower the age of conscription again, but for the moment the Ukrainian president is rejecting this possibility. This is what Ukrainian media such as Ukrainska Pravda reported this week , referring to the mobilization of men between 18 and 25 years old, a very small population group in which the country's future cannot afford to lose. Even before the law on mobilization was approved, which is very unpopular despite not being as harsh as foreign allies demanded, prominent figures and self-proclaimed friends of Ukraine such as US Senator Lindsey Graham have publicly encouraged Ukraine to recruit those over 18 years old despite the demographic risk that this implies for the country they claim to defend. These suggestions seem to have become a demand that is confirmed even by people who belong to the state apparatus. “If this information has seen the light of day, it may confirm that American politicians from both parties are putting pressure on President Zelensky on the question of why there is no mobilization for those aged 18-25 in Ukraine,” said Serhiy Leschenko, one of Andriy Ermak’s advisers and a figure who has gone from representing the third sector , civil society in Maidan Ukraine to all kinds of well-paid positions in the government or in the few state-owned companies that Kiev has not yet privatized. The past ten years show a double standard between those who have been privileged and those who have been impoverished and marginalized thanks to the reforms. of the peacetime years. However, Ukraine’s refusal to recruit its most vulnerable population group strictly responds to the future needs of the state, which, if it hopes to rebuild itself, must maintain minimum levels of youth population.
Although a willing proxy force is prepared to continue fighting to the last Ukrainian , as Graham once stated, sometimes the interests of Ukraine and its suppliers are not perfectly aligned. And if Kiev has an obligation to look, at least from time to time, beyond the war, its partners seem to be concerned only with the here and now, that is, with having enough troops to handle the millions of dollars and euros that continue to flow from west to east in the form of weapons and ammunition. The number of articles warning of the high casualties is increasing, those trying to romanticize the fact that thousands of people have suffered amputations, those admitting the thousands of deserters - 45,543 official cases between January and August 2024 according to Cristian Segura in El País this week -, those denouncing the dismantling of plots to help men of combat age to flee the country or highlighting that some of those who leave the country with permission do not return. As the Minister of Culture and Strategic Communication admitted yesterday, one in five men who obtain permission from the Ministry to temporarily leave the country do not return to Ukraine, which not only loses its cultural figures, but also men to recruit. These articles help to understand the wear and tear that the war is causing and the losses that the country is suffering, but they also reinforce the idea that it is necessary to increase mobilization.
This is also the argument of units that have the privilege of carrying out their own recruitment and that present themselves as an example of how centralised, state-led mobilisation is ineffective. This is the case of Maksym Zhoryn, deputy commander of the Third Assault Brigade and one of the people who worked to reconfigure the military wing of Azov after the defeat at Mariupol, where a significant part of his troops were taken prisoner. For Zhoryn, a well-known member of the far right and one of the important figures of the National Corps, the political party of the Azov movement, mobilisation must be complete, education must be militarised and punishments must be toughened. War has been the group's raison d'être since the summer of 2014 and this logic must now be extended to the state, which both the Third Brigade and the Azov Brigade have criticised for being excessively soft. The success of the formation commanded by Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Biletsky is not only an argument of the propaganda of the Third Brigade, but has also been publicized in the past by media such as The Economist , which, like much of the Western press, did not focus on the ideological component of this unit, a direct heir to Azov, which Arsen Avakov and Anton Gerashchenko incorporated into the Ministry of the Interior of Ukraine as a police battalion when Ukraine was preparing to declare its anti-terrorist operation . The fact that it was created in recent years and under a name that does not include the reference to Azov despite being led by two of the most relevant people in the movement has made it unnecessary to even admit continuity. Thus, unlike Denis Prokopenko's unit, which, despite maintaining continuity, is further removed from the political nucleus that Azov formed, it must be argued that the Brigade has been depoliticized, the Third Assault Brigade has been freed from all suspicion, with the press not seeing the need to assert that Biletsky or Zhoryn are not the same people they were a decade ago.
In this context of freedom to recruit outside the state despite being a formation integrated into the Armed Forces of Ukraine and of absolute whitewashing of the extreme right forces that began to fight against the internal enemy - then the population of Donbass - ten years ago, it is not surprising that the Third Assault Brigade has launched a publicity campaign with large media outlets. Even less surprising is the reaction of the media. “Faced with public distrust, Ukrainian military units compete with each other to replenish their troops. To fight the war better, they have to sell it, and few do it better than the 3rd Assault Brigade, known for its innovative billboards and its YouTube channel that generates dollars, as well as for the controversial ideology of its founder,” writes The Washington Post this week in a report on the recruitment and public relations campaign of Andriy Biletsky’s unit, of which the text gives a single reference to admit that “he was a far-right politician before the war.” As the Ukrainian-Canadian professor Ivan Katchanovski recalled, Biletsky has in his personal archives declarations of intent such as “the historic mission of our Nation is to lead and direct the White Peoples of the world in the last crusade for their existence, a march against the subhumans led by the Semites.” Although the anti-Semitism of the current official ideology is hidden - although not always that of the soldiers - racial hatred is now directed at other groups and in them Biletsky has seen “a serious confrontation of the native European peoples with foreign colonizers, mainly of African and Muslim origin.” According to the white leader “an ethnic civil war can only be won by the native Europeans under the banner of the National Revolutions of the New Right.”
According to Khristina Bondarenko, part of the creative team, the campaign “is being run by a team of 20 people: 13 military personnel and seven civilians. Their messages seem impossible to miss, as they cover more than a thousand billboards across Ukraine, which she says are largely donated. The digital ads are funded by profits from their YouTube channel, which has nearly 1.3 million subscribers and generates more than $15,000 a month. On Instagram, they have another 115,000 subscribers,” writes The Washington Post , describing the current advertising campaign by Biletsky’s group, which, after a previous one in which the aim was to completely dehumanise Russia by presenting its population as zombies, is now seeking “to experiment with a totally new image but linked to historical themes. They settled on pin-up girls.” New for Azov is an aesthetic inspired by the 1950s.
Although the latest US budget law explicitly prohibits arming or financing Azov, the Third Assault Brigade or any group that inherits them, nothing prevents them from spreading their message. Present at the filming, journalists from The Washington Post describe the scene:
“ The machine gunner held his weapon, his body tense, his eyes focused and his finger on the trigger.
On the hood of his Humvee, a model in shorts and cherry-red stilettos leaned on her elbows, her bare legs dripping with bubbles. The soldier aimed his weapon: a power washer.
The cameras flash.
This is not a battlefield, but the front line of the upcoming advertising campaign by Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade – a modern take on the style of World War II pin-up girls, with scantily clad models clutching pistols and straddling soldiers. The brigade hopes the campaign will attract recruits, who are in increasingly short supply as the war with Russia heads into its third year .
As the article indicates, Biletsky and his people have had enough funds to place their message not only on social media, but throughout the country, filling the Ukrainian capital's subway with images with the slogan "I love the Third Brigade." The American media does not value this campaign of trivialization and romanticization of war or the values it instills, a way of perpetuating hierarchies and gender roles that presents women as sexual objects at the service of the warrior. The message of the campaign is not accidental but perfectly intentional. This is made clear by what was published by one of the best-known figures of the Third Brigade and the National Corps, Dmitro Kujarchuk, who wrote: "On the new recruitment campaign of the Third Brigade. I just want to add that the critical situation in Ukraine is no less the fault of Western leftists and liberals than of Russian missiles and degenerates from Buryatia. We are fighting for the traditional Ukrainian family, not for invented female forms and non-existent genders .” The sexist gender message is accompanied by racism – it is no coincidence that Kujarchuk points to Buryatia, a Russian republic located north of Mongolia – and hatred of the left.
“Hegemonic militarized masculinity and sexism often go hand in hand. The best example of this in today’s Ukraine is the Third Assault Brigade. Its public communication includes numerous misogynistic incidents, presented as “army humor.” For example, some fighters equated their female counterparts with military dogs during the “Dvizh” show, meant to promote the Brigade. Others made “dirty jokes” about women’s “true vocation” in wartime, which was to satisfy the sexual needs of male soldiers. Some made “jokes” about women’s “proper place” during wartime, associating it with cooking borsch,” wrote Ukrainian history professor Marta Havrysko, who is hated by the far right and can afford criticism without risking the wrath of groups like Azov by being outside the country.
Values have not changed, and this week’s statements should serve as a wake-up call to those who argue that Azov has become depoliticised or is no longer what it was in 2014. Monday marked the day in Ukraine of the formation of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, a group that actively collaborated with Nazism and played a starring role in the mass murder of Polish people in Volhynia. Both Biletsky and Zhoryn posted messages presenting their brigade as the heir to UPA. The Third Assault Brigade’s spot marking the date stated that “October 14 is Ukraine’s Defence Day, honouring the 82nd anniversary of the formation of UPA” and added that “the date also recognises the resilience of the Maidan volunteer men in black and the founding of the Third Assault Brigade two years ago.” More candid than the Western media that whitewash and depoliticise it, the group admits the continuity between the group that collaborated with the German occupation during World War II and Azov, but also from the men in black, the paramilitary origin of the group branded neo-Nazi by the US Congress, to the Third Assault Brigade. Neither Biletsky nor Azov have changed, only circumstances have. The movement now has more weapons, more recruits and a whole propaganda machine that has succeeded in normalising a group whose hard core fought under the banner of a modified totenkopf and whose soldiers can be found across the spectrum of types of fascism.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/16/reclu ... a-brigada/
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 16 October 2024) Main points :
- The Russian Armed Forces destroyed a depot of unmanned boats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 100 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the Vostok group;
- Russian air defence systems shot down 3 HIMARS projectiles and 56 Ukrainian drones in the special operation zone in 24 hours;
- The South group repelled seven counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 24 hours, the enemy lost up to 710 servicemen;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 465 servicemen and two armored vehicles in 24 hours in the area of responsibility of the Center group of forces;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 430 servicemen and a tank in 24 hours in the area of responsibility of the Zapad group;
- The Russian Armed Forces destroyed the installations of the Neptune coastal anti-ship missile system and the S-200 anti-aircraft missile system of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- The Russian Armed Forces destroyed the infrastructure of a military airfield, two explosive manufacturing plants, and an oil refinery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Units of the "Center" force group liberated the settlement of Krasny Yar in the Donetsk People's Republic.
They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 67th, 150th mechanized, 59th motorized infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 101st, 111th territorial defense brigades and the 15th National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Vishnevoe, Novoselidovka, Dzerzhinsk, Vozdvizhenka, Selidovo and Sukhaya Balka in the Donetsk People's Republic.
Ten counterattacks by assault groups of the 23rd, 100th, 157th mechanized, 25th airborne, 142nd infantry brigades, 78th airborne assault regiment, 49th, 425th assault battalions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 38th marine brigade were repelled. The enemy lost up to 465 servicemen, two Turkish-made Kozak and Kirpi armored combat vehicles , four cars, a 152-mm D-20 gun and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer .
Units of the "East" group of forces occupied more advantageous positions, defeated the manpower and equipment of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 110th and 129th Territorial Defense Brigades in the areas of the settlements of Temirovka in the Zaporizhia region, Dobrovolye and Velyka Novosyolka of the Donetsk People's Republic. A counterattack by an assault group of the 152nd Jaeger Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
was repelled . The enemy's losses amounted to 100 servicemen, three vehicles and a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Krab" of Polish manufacture.
Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on formations of the 31st, 65th mechanized, 141st infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 35th marine brigade, the 121st and 126th territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Kamenskoye, Orekhov, Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhia region, Kreshchenivka and Zolotaya Balka in the Kherson region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 75 servicemen, nine vehicles, a 152-mm D-20 gun and a 122-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Gvozdika" .
The electronic warfare station "Mandat-B1E" and an ammunition depot were destroyed.
Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed a warehouse of unmanned boats, and also damaged: the infrastructure of a military airfield, two enterprises: for the production of explosives and ammunition, an oil refinery that supplied fuel to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, installations of the coastal anti-ship missile system "Neptune" and the anti-aircraft missile system "S-200", as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 138 areas.
Air defense systems shot down three US-made HIMARS rockets and 56 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,704 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,632 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,472 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles, 16,246 field artillery pieces and mortars, 27,295 units of special military vehicles.
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Missile strike on ammunition depot in Svetloye: consequences and strategic significance
On the night of October 15-16, 2024 , Russian troops carried out a pinpoint missile strike on an ammunition depot on the territory of the agricultural enterprise "Blagov" in the village of Svetloye . The strike was carried out using a Tornado-S multiple launch rocket system and hit a key logistics facility of the 5th separate assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ( military unit A4010 ), which was responsible for supporting combat operations in the Chasovyarsk direction .
Strike coordinates : 48.4008817, 37.1255165
Details of the attack and nature of destruction
The missile strike led to the detonation of a significant arsenal of ammunition , which caused a large-scale fire that engulfed an area of \u200b \u200babout 1,000 square meters . The warehouse contained:
• Ammunition for MLRS and barrel artillery (152 mm and 122 mm);
• Engineering ammunition and explosives, including demolition equipment;
• Transport and loading vehicles and engineering vehicles.
Given the nature of the fire and the scale of the fire, it can be assumed that the destruction of the arsenal was complete , which seriously affected the operational capabilities of the unit.
Strategic importance and consequences
The warehouse in Svetloye was the main logistics hub for the 5th separate assault brigade , which provided positions in the Chasovyarsk direction , where in recent weeks there has been an intensification of hostilities . The destruction of the arsenal significantly limits the ability of this unit to maintain its combat positions and conduct offensive operations.
The lack of reserves and the need to urgently replenish lost resources are forcing the Ukrainian side to look for alternative supply routes , which creates additional difficulties in the conditions of active hostilities.
Information counteraction
It is noteworthy that information about this strike and its consequences is being deliberately concealed by the Ukrainian side. There is no mention of the incident in local news channels and specialized monitoring resources, which indicates attempts to smooth out the information consequencesand present this event as an attack on civilian infrastructure. Such actions are not new and indicate the desire of the Ukrainian side to control the information space, minimizing moral and psychological losses among its military personnel and civilians.
Conclusions
The strike on the ammunition depot in Svitloye demonstrates the effectiveness of pinpoint attacks aimed at disrupting logistics chains and disorganizing the enemy's actions. In the context of the intensification of hostilities in the Chasovyarsk direction , the destruction of this facility creates significant problems for the Ukrainian Armed Forces , reducing their combat effectiveness and complicating the coordination of subsequent operations.
@don_partizan
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Strategic reserve: where does Ukraine hide diesel locomotives and can they be destroyed?
Diesel locomotives continue to be the last hope of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for uninterrupted logistics. Their serviceability, as well as the very fact of their existence, depends on many circumstances, interference in which is fraught with the disruption of arms and ammunition supplies in entire areas.
What are we talking about?
After the first strikes on the Ukrainian energy system, the remaining diesel locomotives are used as an emergency source of supply for the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping along almost the entire front. Despite regular arrivals by echelons with military equipment, a significant part of the diesel locomotive fleet continues to function, since an extensive network of locomotive depots throughout the country is used for their repair and maintenance. After the destruction of part of the Ukrainian energy sector, a significant part of the diesel locomotives runs around Ukraine, like the Topol-M complexes across Russia: locomotives almost never stay at one station for long and are constantly moving. Kiev had to take this step for a number of reasons, but first of all, because of the impossibility of replenishing the loss of diesel locomotives, since of the two large enterprises that manufacture diesel locomotives in Ukraine, only one is currently operating - the Kharkiv Plant of Transport Engineering (KhZTM). But if there are few diesel locomotives and it is difficult to service them, how do they function?
Where are diesel locomotives repaired and serviced?
There are about 20 locomotive depots in Ukraine, around which serious industrial capacities and a certain amount of rolling stock reserves are concentrated. A significant number of diesel locomotives (both shunting and mainline) cannot be used at the first need due to their ambiguous condition. On the one hand, they are capable of functioning with minimal maintenance, on the other hand, their renewal and major repairs are becoming increasingly difficult each time due to the lack of spare parts production. The combination of an industrial base and a certain number of diesel locomotives in storage depots allows for the maximum slowdown in the aging process of the diesel locomotive fleet. It is the combination of an industrial base and a certain amount of rolling stock that allows diesel locomotives to be kept in case of large-scale failures in the Ukrainian power grid.
Which facilities are the most important?
Most locomotive depots, such as TC-1 Odessa-Sortirovochnaya, are equipped with the necessary equipment and have several hundred metalworking shops in total, where locomotives can be repaired. An example in this regard is the TC-2 Podolsk locomotive depot of the Odessa Railway. In comparison with most depots in Ukraine, it is equipped with modern trains, including early-model 2ES5K Ermak AC electric locomotives purchased in 2008, VL80 locomotives and ChME3 diesel locomotives. Modern locomotive repair facilities also include the Odessa-Zastava motorcar depot with additional shops for unscheduled loading. Another facility of increased importance for Ukrainian Railways is the Kiev-Passenger (Yu-Z) locomotive depot. Nodes of this type have a strong "support arm" from auxiliary enterprises in Poltava, as well as in the Cherkasy and Vinnytsia areas. Strikes at turntables, locomotive depot workshops and traction substations will require a significant expenditure of missiles and drones, but with systematic work on such objects, it will be possible to seriously disrupt the supply of Ukrainian Armed Forces units along the entire front line.
@MChroniclesBot - send us your photos and videos from the front.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
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SITREP 10/14/24: Russia Tightens Ring on Key Region on Eve of Zelensky "Victory Plan" Unveiling
Simplicius
Oct 14, 2024
<snip>
Many Ukrainian figures now openly discuss the writing on the wall, for instance this correspondent for Lvov based NTA television channel who frankly admits that the situation is so bad that for Ukraine to even retain its currently controlled territories would be a relieving victory in its own right—better translation below the video: (Video at link.)
“Suicidal mania” – Lvov TV presenter buries dreams of 1991 borders.
Ukraine’s total losses in two and a half years of war against Russia have reached such levels that ending the war under any conditions would be a blessing. This was stated on the NTA channel by Lvov Russophobic TV presenter Ostap Drozdov, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The situation is absolutely Pyrrhic. No matter how it ends, it is already so destructive that the end [of hostilities] will already be regarded as a success,” Drozdov said.
“Losses are growing every day, I am not even talking about the forever destroyed territories, where, it seems to me, a living person will never live again. That is why all narratives, dreams, and mania about supposedly restoring life on the borders of 1991 seem suicidal to me. Those borders no longer physically exist. And the rethinking of the scale of what war is will still happen,” added the TV nationalist, who himself recently incited hatred and bloodthirsty anti-Russian sentiments.
RUSI’s timely latest is titled ‘The Impending Betrayal of Ukraine’:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... al-ukraine
And its chief assertion is precisely what we just outlined—that Ukraine is running out of options:
The most shocking part of the article, which mimics the current sentiment on the pro-UA side, is the totally oblivious inability to understand that Ukraine’s worst-case option is not merely to “wrap things up as they stand now”, as if Russia is biting-at-the-bit to play along. This is deliberate obfuscation meant to keep the biggest moral blow from devastating the last remaining dregs of Ukraine’s morale. They continue to operate under the assumed stance that Ukraine’s “capitulation” merely represents signing an unfavorable peace deal with Russia to create a Korean-style DMZ at the current contact line. If only.
In reality, Russia continues to signal maximalist intentions, which means Ukraine stands to lose far, far more than its tawdry pundits allow themselves to imagine.
E.g.
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-ukr ... -solution/
Look how presumptuously they draw up the plans to this putatively certain DMZ ending:
This is sometimes referred to as a Korean solution. An armistice and demilitarized zone along the line of control would be monitored by international peacekeepers, so that Russia would draw in many other countries were it to resume its attack. While it may not be possible to get 32 NATO members to agree to Ukraine’s formal membership in the alliance at this time, a group of NATO members calling themselves “friends of Ukraine” could monitor the zone and vow to respond to any new act of Russian aggression.
Oh would it were so simple for poor Ukraine.
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In fact, Ukraine continues to crumble on the battlefield.
Another major Kursk assault reclaimed more territory for Russia, with the Kursk bulge shrinking rapidly for Ukraine.
Here is Lubimovka being captured: (Video at link.)
And you may recall Ukraine attempted a new breakthrough in the Glushkovo section of Kursk much farther to the west several weeks back in order to ‘cut Russian forces off’. Little by little that small salient was also whittled back until today it was announced it has now officially been entirely defeated and pushed out of the border:
It was here a bit past Veseloe, and now no longer exists:
Here’s footage of Russian correspondent Sladkov visiting some of the newly liberated Kursk areas, though a warning for some graphic content: (Video at link.)
Russian forces even once more made some slight advances in Volchansk of the north Kharkov breakout.
There were some small advances in the north of Chasov Yar, Toretsk, Selidove, and others.
But the most notable was the capture of Ostrovske directly to the east of the key strategic town of Kurakhove. For this assault we actually have comprehensive footage, which shows the professional organized nature of Russian armored operations. The interviews also give insight into Russian tactical arrangements; the mechanized battalion officer describes how he coordinated the assault with the tank battalion commander, and that it took three days to gather all the necessary forces and gear: (Video at link.)
On top of that, Russian forces confirmed the weeks of rumors that something was brewing on the Zaporozhye axis by again advancing at several points.
Russia began to activate old battlelines, capturing Levadne west of Velyka Novosilka:
The 336th Marine Brigade of the Baltic Fleet troops was responsible for the above assault. There are some other rumblings around Gulyaipole to the west.
In general there’s a kind of sweeping motion toward a potentially large cauldron of sorts taking shape:
Though most likely it will break up into several smaller cauldrons as usual, with a separate salient east of Velyka Novosilka eventually enveloping the town then further down the line meeting up with the northern advances out of Kurakhove direction, etc.
However, one interesting bit of news on this account that, while uncorroborated, makes a lot of logical sense, is the following:
Some foreign experts claim that the Russian army has prepared a plan for a “large-scale strike towards the Dnieper.”
According to one scenario, Russian forces may postpone the capture of Kramatorsk/Slovyansk and launch a major offensive operation through Pokrovsk into the Dnipropetrovsk region.
From Pokrovsk to the borders of the DPR and Dnepropetrovsk region is only 25 kilometers, and to Pavlograd, one of the largest industrial centers of Ukraine, exactly 100, if you go directly along the E50 highway.
It is alleged that such a strike is possible not only due to the open terrain and operational space opening up before the Russian Armed Forces, but also due to the actual absence of extended defensive lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces west of Pokrovsk.
Their Ukrainian army has allegedly been trying to urgently build them since the beginning of September, but corruption and confusion prevent this from being done effectively.
"Military Chronicle"
So, in essence what they’re saying is Russia could forego the local territorial captures and instead push everything into a massive decapitation breakthrough all the way to the heart of Ukraine’s east-of-Dnieper fortress.
If that were the case, it would certainly make sense for Russia to activate the entire Zaporozhye front to the south of this advance space as this would provide the forward screening flank and draw AFU defenders and reserves away from the main line of attack.
I.e. something like this:
Even Arestovich recently claimed that Russia is gathering some kind of major offensive strike fist for Zaporozhye specifically, and we continue seeing daily new excursions that appear to be probing actions all along that front, from Kamianske, to Orokhove, and now Velyka Novosilka.
This thread supplies satellite images to show how Ukraine is preparing to defend Pokrovsk city itself, which is the final gateway to the potential breakout described above.
The pro-UA analyst writes that when he did a deep satellite analysis of Russian defensive lines they were far superior to what Ukraine currently has around Pokrovsk:
Russia has done this work with great quality. When I mapped their positions last year, I saw they dug everywhere.
Then, I looked at ukrainian frontline. There were barely no trenches, only some dugouts... They started digging a lot in january 2024, after they saw Avdiivka fell because there were no defenses in Stepove (north of the city).
Here are several of his maps with increased granularity of Ukrainian fortifications visualized:
The point is that, as Russia advances, Ukraine is forced to dig massive new defensive lines further and further back. However, as Russia’s advances pick up speed, Ukraine has less and less time and resources to create adequate fortifications. Thus, if Russia’s current advance through Pokrovsk picks up, there could be a kind of diminishing returns to Ukraine’s fortifications all the way to Pavlograd, with each successive echelon is weaker and weaker, and thus easier to bypass.
But much of that is speculation. The Ukrainian side claims that Kurakhove itself stands to become one of the largest and most difficult battles of the war on account of its unique positioning, particularly being shielded by the reservoir along one side, narrowing Russia’s advancing options. So we’ll have to see how things play out and if Russia can maintain the momentum, particularly with the onset of winter.
(Much more at link.)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... htens-ring
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Ukraine Seeks Allied Help Against Hyped Threat Of North Koreans
The current leader of Ukraine, its former president Vladimir Zelenski, urgently needs more troops. Recent changes in the mobilization laws did not really change the intake of new recruits. The few people caught under it and sent to the front where often medical or socially impaired or elderly people unfit for holding the front line. Many desert as soon as they can (edited machine translation):
As stated in the response of the Prosecutor General's Office to the request of the "Public Integrity Council", for eight months of this year, 29,984 proceedings were opened for unauthorized abandonment of a unit and 15,559 for desertion. In the first year of the war, there were 6,641 and 3,442 such cases, respectively. That is, the growth in both indicators is about five times.
...
"Since deserters will be considered in the service (however, without receiving a monetary allowance), this way the illusion of staffing combat military units will be created on paper. As for the consequences of this madness, they are obvious: in October-November, several tens of thousands more soldiers will desert from the front, and the next fortress city will be Pavlograd," Boyko says.
The recent raids in Kiev venues and concerts also do not help. They are mostly theater designed to show that even well off Ukrainians fall under the law.
But most of the people caught during such raids do have the means to pay off the recruiters (edited machine translation):
Raids are carried out in almost all regions and, most notably, in the largest cities, such as Lviv, Odessa and Kiev.
There were practically no such mass demonstrative actions during this war. And judging by the comments of government officials, this campaign was sanctioned at the very top.
...
Kharkiv blogger Yevgeny Zub published, as stated, messages from people about how they bought off the shopping center, where they were taken after the last raids.
So, one Kharkiv resident writes that he was released from the shopping center for $5,000, subject to payment of $1,000 monthly to the military commissar. Another Kharkiv citizen was released for $2,500. "Imagine how much money will be deposited during the days of the raid? It is difficult," Evgeny Zubov commented on this information.
...
Why did the enlistment office raids become more active? On this topic, Strana talked to sources in military enlistment offices and the Ministry of Defense.
They say that you need to distinguish between two processes.
The first is "demonstration performances" of the Shopping center at concerts, night clubs and restaurants. They, as we have already written, are mainly informational and PR in nature. And they are designed to show the army and society that "there are no untouchables." In reality, as the sources of the "Country" say, the effect on the replenishment of the army from such events is scanty – mostly men who are "busied" in this way buy off. Moreover, military commissars, thanks to such raids, remove the "double cash register" - they "heal" both detainees and institutions. There have always been fees to ensure that recruitment offices do not disturb customers of restaurants and night clubs. But now the former "pay-offs" on command from above were ordered to be forgotten. But this does not mean that there will be no new agreements. They will. Only more expensive.
However, according to sources, these "demonstration performances", although they attract everyone's attention, are nevertheless auxiliary in nature. Their task is to provide PR cover for the second and main process-a sharp increase in street mobilization and raids on all crowded places: markets, shopping centers, any mass events.
The reason for such activation is the total (up to 70%) failure of plans for mobilization.
A second way to get new troops while the current ones are dying is to ask foreign powers to send their men. Zelenski's 'victory plan' includes that step. But his attempts to get it accepted have failed.
He has since come up with an idea to justify the entry of foreign troops on his side of the war.
Zelenski and his media people have for days now claimed that North Korean troops will soon fight on the side of Russia. This, he hopes, will incite western forces to send their own troops to Ukraine if only to counter the North Koreans.
The first take of this media campaign appeared on October 4:
Missile Strike Near Donetsk Eliminates 6 North Korean Officers – Intel - Kyiv Post
Six officers from North Korea were among the 20 soldiers killed in a Ukrainian missile strike on Russian-occupied territory near Donetsk, intelligence sources say.
More than 20 soldiers were killed as a result of an Oct. 3 missile strike on Russian-occupied territory near Donetsk, including six officers from North Korea, who came to confer with their Russian counterparts, Kyiv Post’s intelligence sources said. Three more North Korean servicemen were wounded.
According to reports from Russian social media, prior to the missile strike, the Russians were demonstrating to North Korean representatives the training of personnel for assault actions and defense.
After his failed 'Victory Plan' campaign the former president picked up the theme:
Russia plans to involve North Korea in war in Ukraine this fall, Zelensky says - Kyiv Independent
Russia plans to involve North Korea directly in the full-scale war against Ukraine this fall and winter, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Oct. 14, citing intelligence data.
The announcement comes a day after Zelensky warned of an "increasing alliance" between Moscow and Pyongyang.
According to Ukraine's military intelligence, Russia's plans for the fall and winter include "the actual involvement of North Korea in the war," Zelensky said.
...
Zelensky warned on Oct. 13 that Russia and North Korea were deepening their alliance, saying that the partnership had escalated to the point where North Korea was sending personnel to Ukraine's front lines along with weapons.
...
The warning followed reports from South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun that North Korea is likely to deploy regular troops to Ukraine to aid Russia at the front.
Reports have also emerged in recent days that North Korean officers were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike in Russian-occupied territory. The Kyiv Independent has not been able to verify these reports, which have not been confirmed beyond a single intelligence source.
Since then Ukrainian media have added this or bit to the story all based on the same 'intelligence sources'.
Russia forms "Buryat battalion" staffed by North Koreans: 18 soldiers already fled positions - Pravda.ua
The Russians assembled a "special Buryat battalion" recruited from among citizens of Democratic People's Republic of Korea, while 18 North Korean personnel have already escaped from positions located along the border of Russia's Bryansk and Kursk oblasts.
Source: Ukrainska Pravda sources in Ukraine’s special services
Details: According to Ukrainska Pravda, this occurred 7 kilometres from the state border with Ukraine.
...
Previously, reports circulated concerning the assembling of a "special Buryat battalion" in the Russian army.
The estimated number of personnel in the unit is up to 3,000.
The battalion is expected to be involved in combat activities around the settlements of Sudzha and Kursk.
Some 3,000 men would constitute 6 full fledged infantry battalions, not one.
To have North Koreans fighting in Russia against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk would make little sense. That incursion is for one already mostly defeated.
Besides that the language and cultural problems would make the integration of such forces into Russian military operations nearly impossible. I am sure that the Russian military would be strongly against it.
Zelenski's claims were amplified through various proxies and media appearances (edited machine translation):
The Russian Army wants to achieve maximum results before winter and is not preparing for frosts. This was stated by the speaker of the group "Lugansk" Anastasia Bobovnikova on the air of the telethon.
...
Also, Suspilne, citing an intelligence source , reports that Russia wants to send North Korean military personnel to the Kursk region.
It is reported that now the Russian army is forming a special battalion of up to 3,000 people, staffed by North Korean citizens, on the basis of 11 ODSHBRS.
The process of providing the battalion with small arms and ammunition is already underway.
I regard the whole claim of North Korean troops in Russia as a fake news story and I am sure that most experts will follow me in that judgment.
However, today U.S. media manage to play up the nonsense:
Why North Korea is sending soldiers to the Russian front lines - Washington Post
Sending solders to help Russia’s war effort against Ukraine could earn valuable foreign currency for Kim Jong Un’s regime and bolster their strengthening ties.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week confirmed reports of North Korean troops supporting Russians inside Ukraine, warning that the alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang is growing stronger and evolving beyond transferring weapons.
A Ukrainian military intelligence official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter, told The Washington Post last week that “several thousand” North Korean infantry soldiers are undergoing training in Russia now and could be deployed to the front line in Ukraine by the end of this year.
South Korea’s defense minister Kim Yong-hyun last week called the reports of North Korean military personnel helping Russia “highly likely.” The Kremlin has dismissed the assertion as a “hoax.”
I do not believe that any politician or military in the west will believe that nonsense which is again solely sourced to Ukrainian military intelligence claims. But there is clear campaign by the Ukrainian government to make the issue stick. What is its hope? To induce South Korea to send its forces to fight North Koreans on the Ukrainian border with Russia?
Another way to get foreign forces to fight on the Ukrainian side is to make them swap their current uniforms for Ukrainian ones. A new Ukrainian law recently made that easier:
Foreign citizens and stateless persons were allowed to take officer roles within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the State Special Transport Service of Ukraine, and the National Guard of Ukraine. The Verkhovna Rada has adopted the law on the matter drafted by the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.
Before this, foreigners and stateless persons were limited to roles at the enlisted personnel and NCO levels.
...
The news of that change came at the same time as the UK mulles about sending military instructors to Ukraine. Swapping the instructors uniforms could make such an effort less dangerous.
Posted by b on October 15, 2024 at 16:49 UTC | Permalink
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/u ... .html#more
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Report: Ukraine Considers Ceding Territory to End War With Russia
October 15, 2024
By Dave DeCamp, Antiwar.com, 10/14/24
The Ukrainian government is considering options to end the war with Russia that would involve ceding territory, Der Spiegel reported on Sunday, citing a Ukrainian official.
The report said it was the first time since Russia’s invasion in February 2022 that the Ukrainian leadership has considered a deal that wouldn’t involve it getting back all of the territory Russian forces have captured since February 2022.
Under a peace deal that was on the table in March and April 2022, Russia would have withdrawn its forces back to pre-invasion lines. But that deal was discouraged by the US and other NATO countries, who urged the Ukrainians to fight.
Over the past two years, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing a “peace formula” that calls for a full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine before peace talks can even happen, which is a non-starter for negotiations with Moscow.
“We believed that victory had to mean the unconditional surrender of Putin’s Russia,” the Ukrainian source told Der Spiegel. The official acknowledged that was not a realistic view, saying, “A deal must also be beneficial for Russia.”
The report comes as Russian forces continue to make gains in eastern Ukraine, which have become more rapid in recent months. Ukrainian forces still hold a small chunk of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, but Russian troops are slowly pushing them back.
The Ukrainian official said that Kyiv believes the US will slowly wind down its support for Ukraine whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November. Trump is running on ending the war while Harris is vowing to continue supporting Kyiv.
“Whether it’s Trump or Harris, the Americans will slowly but surely withdraw,” the official said. “The prognosis is poor.”
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/rep ... th-russia/
If this happens the Nazis will kill the Clown as promised unless he flees, and maybe even then.
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/16/2024
The United States is putting pressure on Zelensky to lower the age of conscription again, but for the moment the Ukrainian president is rejecting this possibility. This is what Ukrainian media such as Ukrainska Pravda reported this week , referring to the mobilization of men between 18 and 25 years old, a very small population group in which the country's future cannot afford to lose. Even before the law on mobilization was approved, which is very unpopular despite not being as harsh as foreign allies demanded, prominent figures and self-proclaimed friends of Ukraine such as US Senator Lindsey Graham have publicly encouraged Ukraine to recruit those over 18 years old despite the demographic risk that this implies for the country they claim to defend. These suggestions seem to have become a demand that is confirmed even by people who belong to the state apparatus. “If this information has seen the light of day, it may confirm that American politicians from both parties are putting pressure on President Zelensky on the question of why there is no mobilization for those aged 18-25 in Ukraine,” said Serhiy Leschenko, one of Andriy Ermak’s advisers and a figure who has gone from representing the third sector , civil society in Maidan Ukraine to all kinds of well-paid positions in the government or in the few state-owned companies that Kiev has not yet privatized. The past ten years show a double standard between those who have been privileged and those who have been impoverished and marginalized thanks to the reforms. of the peacetime years. However, Ukraine’s refusal to recruit its most vulnerable population group strictly responds to the future needs of the state, which, if it hopes to rebuild itself, must maintain minimum levels of youth population.
Although a willing proxy force is prepared to continue fighting to the last Ukrainian , as Graham once stated, sometimes the interests of Ukraine and its suppliers are not perfectly aligned. And if Kiev has an obligation to look, at least from time to time, beyond the war, its partners seem to be concerned only with the here and now, that is, with having enough troops to handle the millions of dollars and euros that continue to flow from west to east in the form of weapons and ammunition. The number of articles warning of the high casualties is increasing, those trying to romanticize the fact that thousands of people have suffered amputations, those admitting the thousands of deserters - 45,543 official cases between January and August 2024 according to Cristian Segura in El País this week -, those denouncing the dismantling of plots to help men of combat age to flee the country or highlighting that some of those who leave the country with permission do not return. As the Minister of Culture and Strategic Communication admitted yesterday, one in five men who obtain permission from the Ministry to temporarily leave the country do not return to Ukraine, which not only loses its cultural figures, but also men to recruit. These articles help to understand the wear and tear that the war is causing and the losses that the country is suffering, but they also reinforce the idea that it is necessary to increase mobilization.
This is also the argument of units that have the privilege of carrying out their own recruitment and that present themselves as an example of how centralised, state-led mobilisation is ineffective. This is the case of Maksym Zhoryn, deputy commander of the Third Assault Brigade and one of the people who worked to reconfigure the military wing of Azov after the defeat at Mariupol, where a significant part of his troops were taken prisoner. For Zhoryn, a well-known member of the far right and one of the important figures of the National Corps, the political party of the Azov movement, mobilisation must be complete, education must be militarised and punishments must be toughened. War has been the group's raison d'être since the summer of 2014 and this logic must now be extended to the state, which both the Third Brigade and the Azov Brigade have criticised for being excessively soft. The success of the formation commanded by Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Biletsky is not only an argument of the propaganda of the Third Brigade, but has also been publicized in the past by media such as The Economist , which, like much of the Western press, did not focus on the ideological component of this unit, a direct heir to Azov, which Arsen Avakov and Anton Gerashchenko incorporated into the Ministry of the Interior of Ukraine as a police battalion when Ukraine was preparing to declare its anti-terrorist operation . The fact that it was created in recent years and under a name that does not include the reference to Azov despite being led by two of the most relevant people in the movement has made it unnecessary to even admit continuity. Thus, unlike Denis Prokopenko's unit, which, despite maintaining continuity, is further removed from the political nucleus that Azov formed, it must be argued that the Brigade has been depoliticized, the Third Assault Brigade has been freed from all suspicion, with the press not seeing the need to assert that Biletsky or Zhoryn are not the same people they were a decade ago.
In this context of freedom to recruit outside the state despite being a formation integrated into the Armed Forces of Ukraine and of absolute whitewashing of the extreme right forces that began to fight against the internal enemy - then the population of Donbass - ten years ago, it is not surprising that the Third Assault Brigade has launched a publicity campaign with large media outlets. Even less surprising is the reaction of the media. “Faced with public distrust, Ukrainian military units compete with each other to replenish their troops. To fight the war better, they have to sell it, and few do it better than the 3rd Assault Brigade, known for its innovative billboards and its YouTube channel that generates dollars, as well as for the controversial ideology of its founder,” writes The Washington Post this week in a report on the recruitment and public relations campaign of Andriy Biletsky’s unit, of which the text gives a single reference to admit that “he was a far-right politician before the war.” As the Ukrainian-Canadian professor Ivan Katchanovski recalled, Biletsky has in his personal archives declarations of intent such as “the historic mission of our Nation is to lead and direct the White Peoples of the world in the last crusade for their existence, a march against the subhumans led by the Semites.” Although the anti-Semitism of the current official ideology is hidden - although not always that of the soldiers - racial hatred is now directed at other groups and in them Biletsky has seen “a serious confrontation of the native European peoples with foreign colonizers, mainly of African and Muslim origin.” According to the white leader “an ethnic civil war can only be won by the native Europeans under the banner of the National Revolutions of the New Right.”
According to Khristina Bondarenko, part of the creative team, the campaign “is being run by a team of 20 people: 13 military personnel and seven civilians. Their messages seem impossible to miss, as they cover more than a thousand billboards across Ukraine, which she says are largely donated. The digital ads are funded by profits from their YouTube channel, which has nearly 1.3 million subscribers and generates more than $15,000 a month. On Instagram, they have another 115,000 subscribers,” writes The Washington Post , describing the current advertising campaign by Biletsky’s group, which, after a previous one in which the aim was to completely dehumanise Russia by presenting its population as zombies, is now seeking “to experiment with a totally new image but linked to historical themes. They settled on pin-up girls.” New for Azov is an aesthetic inspired by the 1950s.
Although the latest US budget law explicitly prohibits arming or financing Azov, the Third Assault Brigade or any group that inherits them, nothing prevents them from spreading their message. Present at the filming, journalists from The Washington Post describe the scene:
“ The machine gunner held his weapon, his body tense, his eyes focused and his finger on the trigger.
On the hood of his Humvee, a model in shorts and cherry-red stilettos leaned on her elbows, her bare legs dripping with bubbles. The soldier aimed his weapon: a power washer.
The cameras flash.
This is not a battlefield, but the front line of the upcoming advertising campaign by Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade – a modern take on the style of World War II pin-up girls, with scantily clad models clutching pistols and straddling soldiers. The brigade hopes the campaign will attract recruits, who are in increasingly short supply as the war with Russia heads into its third year .
As the article indicates, Biletsky and his people have had enough funds to place their message not only on social media, but throughout the country, filling the Ukrainian capital's subway with images with the slogan "I love the Third Brigade." The American media does not value this campaign of trivialization and romanticization of war or the values it instills, a way of perpetuating hierarchies and gender roles that presents women as sexual objects at the service of the warrior. The message of the campaign is not accidental but perfectly intentional. This is made clear by what was published by one of the best-known figures of the Third Brigade and the National Corps, Dmitro Kujarchuk, who wrote: "On the new recruitment campaign of the Third Brigade. I just want to add that the critical situation in Ukraine is no less the fault of Western leftists and liberals than of Russian missiles and degenerates from Buryatia. We are fighting for the traditional Ukrainian family, not for invented female forms and non-existent genders .” The sexist gender message is accompanied by racism – it is no coincidence that Kujarchuk points to Buryatia, a Russian republic located north of Mongolia – and hatred of the left.
“Hegemonic militarized masculinity and sexism often go hand in hand. The best example of this in today’s Ukraine is the Third Assault Brigade. Its public communication includes numerous misogynistic incidents, presented as “army humor.” For example, some fighters equated their female counterparts with military dogs during the “Dvizh” show, meant to promote the Brigade. Others made “dirty jokes” about women’s “true vocation” in wartime, which was to satisfy the sexual needs of male soldiers. Some made “jokes” about women’s “proper place” during wartime, associating it with cooking borsch,” wrote Ukrainian history professor Marta Havrysko, who is hated by the far right and can afford criticism without risking the wrath of groups like Azov by being outside the country.
Values have not changed, and this week’s statements should serve as a wake-up call to those who argue that Azov has become depoliticised or is no longer what it was in 2014. Monday marked the day in Ukraine of the formation of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, a group that actively collaborated with Nazism and played a starring role in the mass murder of Polish people in Volhynia. Both Biletsky and Zhoryn posted messages presenting their brigade as the heir to UPA. The Third Assault Brigade’s spot marking the date stated that “October 14 is Ukraine’s Defence Day, honouring the 82nd anniversary of the formation of UPA” and added that “the date also recognises the resilience of the Maidan volunteer men in black and the founding of the Third Assault Brigade two years ago.” More candid than the Western media that whitewash and depoliticise it, the group admits the continuity between the group that collaborated with the German occupation during World War II and Azov, but also from the men in black, the paramilitary origin of the group branded neo-Nazi by the US Congress, to the Third Assault Brigade. Neither Biletsky nor Azov have changed, only circumstances have. The movement now has more weapons, more recruits and a whole propaganda machine that has succeeded in normalising a group whose hard core fought under the banner of a modified totenkopf and whose soldiers can be found across the spectrum of types of fascism.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/16/reclu ... a-brigada/
Google Translator
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 16 October 2024) Main points :
- The Russian Armed Forces destroyed a depot of unmanned boats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 100 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the Vostok group;
- Russian air defence systems shot down 3 HIMARS projectiles and 56 Ukrainian drones in the special operation zone in 24 hours;
- The South group repelled seven counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 24 hours, the enemy lost up to 710 servicemen;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 465 servicemen and two armored vehicles in 24 hours in the area of responsibility of the Center group of forces;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 430 servicemen and a tank in 24 hours in the area of responsibility of the Zapad group;
- The Russian Armed Forces destroyed the installations of the Neptune coastal anti-ship missile system and the S-200 anti-aircraft missile system of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- The Russian Armed Forces destroyed the infrastructure of a military airfield, two explosive manufacturing plants, and an oil refinery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Units of the "Center" force group liberated the settlement of Krasny Yar in the Donetsk People's Republic.
They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 67th, 150th mechanized, 59th motorized infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 101st, 111th territorial defense brigades and the 15th National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Vishnevoe, Novoselidovka, Dzerzhinsk, Vozdvizhenka, Selidovo and Sukhaya Balka in the Donetsk People's Republic.
Ten counterattacks by assault groups of the 23rd, 100th, 157th mechanized, 25th airborne, 142nd infantry brigades, 78th airborne assault regiment, 49th, 425th assault battalions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 38th marine brigade were repelled. The enemy lost up to 465 servicemen, two Turkish-made Kozak and Kirpi armored combat vehicles , four cars, a 152-mm D-20 gun and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer .
Units of the "East" group of forces occupied more advantageous positions, defeated the manpower and equipment of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 110th and 129th Territorial Defense Brigades in the areas of the settlements of Temirovka in the Zaporizhia region, Dobrovolye and Velyka Novosyolka of the Donetsk People's Republic. A counterattack by an assault group of the 152nd Jaeger Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
was repelled . The enemy's losses amounted to 100 servicemen, three vehicles and a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Krab" of Polish manufacture.
Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on formations of the 31st, 65th mechanized, 141st infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 35th marine brigade, the 121st and 126th territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Kamenskoye, Orekhov, Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhia region, Kreshchenivka and Zolotaya Balka in the Kherson region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 75 servicemen, nine vehicles, a 152-mm D-20 gun and a 122-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Gvozdika" .
The electronic warfare station "Mandat-B1E" and an ammunition depot were destroyed.
Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed a warehouse of unmanned boats, and also damaged: the infrastructure of a military airfield, two enterprises: for the production of explosives and ammunition, an oil refinery that supplied fuel to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, installations of the coastal anti-ship missile system "Neptune" and the anti-aircraft missile system "S-200", as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 138 areas.
Air defense systems shot down three US-made HIMARS rockets and 56 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,704 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,632 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,472 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles, 16,246 field artillery pieces and mortars, 27,295 units of special military vehicles.
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Missile strike on ammunition depot in Svetloye: consequences and strategic significance
On the night of October 15-16, 2024 , Russian troops carried out a pinpoint missile strike on an ammunition depot on the territory of the agricultural enterprise "Blagov" in the village of Svetloye . The strike was carried out using a Tornado-S multiple launch rocket system and hit a key logistics facility of the 5th separate assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ( military unit A4010 ), which was responsible for supporting combat operations in the Chasovyarsk direction .
Strike coordinates : 48.4008817, 37.1255165
Details of the attack and nature of destruction
The missile strike led to the detonation of a significant arsenal of ammunition , which caused a large-scale fire that engulfed an area of \u200b \u200babout 1,000 square meters . The warehouse contained:
• Ammunition for MLRS and barrel artillery (152 mm and 122 mm);
• Engineering ammunition and explosives, including demolition equipment;
• Transport and loading vehicles and engineering vehicles.
Given the nature of the fire and the scale of the fire, it can be assumed that the destruction of the arsenal was complete , which seriously affected the operational capabilities of the unit.
Strategic importance and consequences
The warehouse in Svetloye was the main logistics hub for the 5th separate assault brigade , which provided positions in the Chasovyarsk direction , where in recent weeks there has been an intensification of hostilities . The destruction of the arsenal significantly limits the ability of this unit to maintain its combat positions and conduct offensive operations.
The lack of reserves and the need to urgently replenish lost resources are forcing the Ukrainian side to look for alternative supply routes , which creates additional difficulties in the conditions of active hostilities.
Information counteraction
It is noteworthy that information about this strike and its consequences is being deliberately concealed by the Ukrainian side. There is no mention of the incident in local news channels and specialized monitoring resources, which indicates attempts to smooth out the information consequencesand present this event as an attack on civilian infrastructure. Such actions are not new and indicate the desire of the Ukrainian side to control the information space, minimizing moral and psychological losses among its military personnel and civilians.
Conclusions
The strike on the ammunition depot in Svitloye demonstrates the effectiveness of pinpoint attacks aimed at disrupting logistics chains and disorganizing the enemy's actions. In the context of the intensification of hostilities in the Chasovyarsk direction , the destruction of this facility creates significant problems for the Ukrainian Armed Forces , reducing their combat effectiveness and complicating the coordination of subsequent operations.
@don_partizan
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Strategic reserve: where does Ukraine hide diesel locomotives and can they be destroyed?
Diesel locomotives continue to be the last hope of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for uninterrupted logistics. Their serviceability, as well as the very fact of their existence, depends on many circumstances, interference in which is fraught with the disruption of arms and ammunition supplies in entire areas.
What are we talking about?
After the first strikes on the Ukrainian energy system, the remaining diesel locomotives are used as an emergency source of supply for the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping along almost the entire front. Despite regular arrivals by echelons with military equipment, a significant part of the diesel locomotive fleet continues to function, since an extensive network of locomotive depots throughout the country is used for their repair and maintenance. After the destruction of part of the Ukrainian energy sector, a significant part of the diesel locomotives runs around Ukraine, like the Topol-M complexes across Russia: locomotives almost never stay at one station for long and are constantly moving. Kiev had to take this step for a number of reasons, but first of all, because of the impossibility of replenishing the loss of diesel locomotives, since of the two large enterprises that manufacture diesel locomotives in Ukraine, only one is currently operating - the Kharkiv Plant of Transport Engineering (KhZTM). But if there are few diesel locomotives and it is difficult to service them, how do they function?
Where are diesel locomotives repaired and serviced?
There are about 20 locomotive depots in Ukraine, around which serious industrial capacities and a certain amount of rolling stock reserves are concentrated. A significant number of diesel locomotives (both shunting and mainline) cannot be used at the first need due to their ambiguous condition. On the one hand, they are capable of functioning with minimal maintenance, on the other hand, their renewal and major repairs are becoming increasingly difficult each time due to the lack of spare parts production. The combination of an industrial base and a certain number of diesel locomotives in storage depots allows for the maximum slowdown in the aging process of the diesel locomotive fleet. It is the combination of an industrial base and a certain amount of rolling stock that allows diesel locomotives to be kept in case of large-scale failures in the Ukrainian power grid.
Which facilities are the most important?
Most locomotive depots, such as TC-1 Odessa-Sortirovochnaya, are equipped with the necessary equipment and have several hundred metalworking shops in total, where locomotives can be repaired. An example in this regard is the TC-2 Podolsk locomotive depot of the Odessa Railway. In comparison with most depots in Ukraine, it is equipped with modern trains, including early-model 2ES5K Ermak AC electric locomotives purchased in 2008, VL80 locomotives and ChME3 diesel locomotives. Modern locomotive repair facilities also include the Odessa-Zastava motorcar depot with additional shops for unscheduled loading. Another facility of increased importance for Ukrainian Railways is the Kiev-Passenger (Yu-Z) locomotive depot. Nodes of this type have a strong "support arm" from auxiliary enterprises in Poltava, as well as in the Cherkasy and Vinnytsia areas. Strikes at turntables, locomotive depot workshops and traction substations will require a significant expenditure of missiles and drones, but with systematic work on such objects, it will be possible to seriously disrupt the supply of Ukrainian Armed Forces units along the entire front line.
@MChroniclesBot - send us your photos and videos from the front.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
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SITREP 10/14/24: Russia Tightens Ring on Key Region on Eve of Zelensky "Victory Plan" Unveiling
Simplicius
Oct 14, 2024
<snip>
Many Ukrainian figures now openly discuss the writing on the wall, for instance this correspondent for Lvov based NTA television channel who frankly admits that the situation is so bad that for Ukraine to even retain its currently controlled territories would be a relieving victory in its own right—better translation below the video: (Video at link.)
“Suicidal mania” – Lvov TV presenter buries dreams of 1991 borders.
Ukraine’s total losses in two and a half years of war against Russia have reached such levels that ending the war under any conditions would be a blessing. This was stated on the NTA channel by Lvov Russophobic TV presenter Ostap Drozdov, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The situation is absolutely Pyrrhic. No matter how it ends, it is already so destructive that the end [of hostilities] will already be regarded as a success,” Drozdov said.
“Losses are growing every day, I am not even talking about the forever destroyed territories, where, it seems to me, a living person will never live again. That is why all narratives, dreams, and mania about supposedly restoring life on the borders of 1991 seem suicidal to me. Those borders no longer physically exist. And the rethinking of the scale of what war is will still happen,” added the TV nationalist, who himself recently incited hatred and bloodthirsty anti-Russian sentiments.
RUSI’s timely latest is titled ‘The Impending Betrayal of Ukraine’:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... al-ukraine
And its chief assertion is precisely what we just outlined—that Ukraine is running out of options:
The most shocking part of the article, which mimics the current sentiment on the pro-UA side, is the totally oblivious inability to understand that Ukraine’s worst-case option is not merely to “wrap things up as they stand now”, as if Russia is biting-at-the-bit to play along. This is deliberate obfuscation meant to keep the biggest moral blow from devastating the last remaining dregs of Ukraine’s morale. They continue to operate under the assumed stance that Ukraine’s “capitulation” merely represents signing an unfavorable peace deal with Russia to create a Korean-style DMZ at the current contact line. If only.
In reality, Russia continues to signal maximalist intentions, which means Ukraine stands to lose far, far more than its tawdry pundits allow themselves to imagine.
E.g.
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-ukr ... -solution/
Look how presumptuously they draw up the plans to this putatively certain DMZ ending:
This is sometimes referred to as a Korean solution. An armistice and demilitarized zone along the line of control would be monitored by international peacekeepers, so that Russia would draw in many other countries were it to resume its attack. While it may not be possible to get 32 NATO members to agree to Ukraine’s formal membership in the alliance at this time, a group of NATO members calling themselves “friends of Ukraine” could monitor the zone and vow to respond to any new act of Russian aggression.
Oh would it were so simple for poor Ukraine.
—
In fact, Ukraine continues to crumble on the battlefield.
Another major Kursk assault reclaimed more territory for Russia, with the Kursk bulge shrinking rapidly for Ukraine.
Here is Lubimovka being captured: (Video at link.)
And you may recall Ukraine attempted a new breakthrough in the Glushkovo section of Kursk much farther to the west several weeks back in order to ‘cut Russian forces off’. Little by little that small salient was also whittled back until today it was announced it has now officially been entirely defeated and pushed out of the border:
It was here a bit past Veseloe, and now no longer exists:
Here’s footage of Russian correspondent Sladkov visiting some of the newly liberated Kursk areas, though a warning for some graphic content: (Video at link.)
Russian forces even once more made some slight advances in Volchansk of the north Kharkov breakout.
There were some small advances in the north of Chasov Yar, Toretsk, Selidove, and others.
But the most notable was the capture of Ostrovske directly to the east of the key strategic town of Kurakhove. For this assault we actually have comprehensive footage, which shows the professional organized nature of Russian armored operations. The interviews also give insight into Russian tactical arrangements; the mechanized battalion officer describes how he coordinated the assault with the tank battalion commander, and that it took three days to gather all the necessary forces and gear: (Video at link.)
On top of that, Russian forces confirmed the weeks of rumors that something was brewing on the Zaporozhye axis by again advancing at several points.
Russia began to activate old battlelines, capturing Levadne west of Velyka Novosilka:
The 336th Marine Brigade of the Baltic Fleet troops was responsible for the above assault. There are some other rumblings around Gulyaipole to the west.
In general there’s a kind of sweeping motion toward a potentially large cauldron of sorts taking shape:
Though most likely it will break up into several smaller cauldrons as usual, with a separate salient east of Velyka Novosilka eventually enveloping the town then further down the line meeting up with the northern advances out of Kurakhove direction, etc.
However, one interesting bit of news on this account that, while uncorroborated, makes a lot of logical sense, is the following:
Some foreign experts claim that the Russian army has prepared a plan for a “large-scale strike towards the Dnieper.”
According to one scenario, Russian forces may postpone the capture of Kramatorsk/Slovyansk and launch a major offensive operation through Pokrovsk into the Dnipropetrovsk region.
From Pokrovsk to the borders of the DPR and Dnepropetrovsk region is only 25 kilometers, and to Pavlograd, one of the largest industrial centers of Ukraine, exactly 100, if you go directly along the E50 highway.
It is alleged that such a strike is possible not only due to the open terrain and operational space opening up before the Russian Armed Forces, but also due to the actual absence of extended defensive lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces west of Pokrovsk.
Their Ukrainian army has allegedly been trying to urgently build them since the beginning of September, but corruption and confusion prevent this from being done effectively.
"Military Chronicle"
So, in essence what they’re saying is Russia could forego the local territorial captures and instead push everything into a massive decapitation breakthrough all the way to the heart of Ukraine’s east-of-Dnieper fortress.
If that were the case, it would certainly make sense for Russia to activate the entire Zaporozhye front to the south of this advance space as this would provide the forward screening flank and draw AFU defenders and reserves away from the main line of attack.
I.e. something like this:
Even Arestovich recently claimed that Russia is gathering some kind of major offensive strike fist for Zaporozhye specifically, and we continue seeing daily new excursions that appear to be probing actions all along that front, from Kamianske, to Orokhove, and now Velyka Novosilka.
This thread supplies satellite images to show how Ukraine is preparing to defend Pokrovsk city itself, which is the final gateway to the potential breakout described above.
The pro-UA analyst writes that when he did a deep satellite analysis of Russian defensive lines they were far superior to what Ukraine currently has around Pokrovsk:
Russia has done this work with great quality. When I mapped their positions last year, I saw they dug everywhere.
Then, I looked at ukrainian frontline. There were barely no trenches, only some dugouts... They started digging a lot in january 2024, after they saw Avdiivka fell because there were no defenses in Stepove (north of the city).
Here are several of his maps with increased granularity of Ukrainian fortifications visualized:
The point is that, as Russia advances, Ukraine is forced to dig massive new defensive lines further and further back. However, as Russia’s advances pick up speed, Ukraine has less and less time and resources to create adequate fortifications. Thus, if Russia’s current advance through Pokrovsk picks up, there could be a kind of diminishing returns to Ukraine’s fortifications all the way to Pavlograd, with each successive echelon is weaker and weaker, and thus easier to bypass.
But much of that is speculation. The Ukrainian side claims that Kurakhove itself stands to become one of the largest and most difficult battles of the war on account of its unique positioning, particularly being shielded by the reservoir along one side, narrowing Russia’s advancing options. So we’ll have to see how things play out and if Russia can maintain the momentum, particularly with the onset of winter.
(Much more at link.)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... htens-ring
*****
Ukraine Seeks Allied Help Against Hyped Threat Of North Koreans
The current leader of Ukraine, its former president Vladimir Zelenski, urgently needs more troops. Recent changes in the mobilization laws did not really change the intake of new recruits. The few people caught under it and sent to the front where often medical or socially impaired or elderly people unfit for holding the front line. Many desert as soon as they can (edited machine translation):
As stated in the response of the Prosecutor General's Office to the request of the "Public Integrity Council", for eight months of this year, 29,984 proceedings were opened for unauthorized abandonment of a unit and 15,559 for desertion. In the first year of the war, there were 6,641 and 3,442 such cases, respectively. That is, the growth in both indicators is about five times.
...
"Since deserters will be considered in the service (however, without receiving a monetary allowance), this way the illusion of staffing combat military units will be created on paper. As for the consequences of this madness, they are obvious: in October-November, several tens of thousands more soldiers will desert from the front, and the next fortress city will be Pavlograd," Boyko says.
The recent raids in Kiev venues and concerts also do not help. They are mostly theater designed to show that even well off Ukrainians fall under the law.
But most of the people caught during such raids do have the means to pay off the recruiters (edited machine translation):
Raids are carried out in almost all regions and, most notably, in the largest cities, such as Lviv, Odessa and Kiev.
There were practically no such mass demonstrative actions during this war. And judging by the comments of government officials, this campaign was sanctioned at the very top.
...
Kharkiv blogger Yevgeny Zub published, as stated, messages from people about how they bought off the shopping center, where they were taken after the last raids.
So, one Kharkiv resident writes that he was released from the shopping center for $5,000, subject to payment of $1,000 monthly to the military commissar. Another Kharkiv citizen was released for $2,500. "Imagine how much money will be deposited during the days of the raid? It is difficult," Evgeny Zubov commented on this information.
...
Why did the enlistment office raids become more active? On this topic, Strana talked to sources in military enlistment offices and the Ministry of Defense.
They say that you need to distinguish between two processes.
The first is "demonstration performances" of the Shopping center at concerts, night clubs and restaurants. They, as we have already written, are mainly informational and PR in nature. And they are designed to show the army and society that "there are no untouchables." In reality, as the sources of the "Country" say, the effect on the replenishment of the army from such events is scanty – mostly men who are "busied" in this way buy off. Moreover, military commissars, thanks to such raids, remove the "double cash register" - they "heal" both detainees and institutions. There have always been fees to ensure that recruitment offices do not disturb customers of restaurants and night clubs. But now the former "pay-offs" on command from above were ordered to be forgotten. But this does not mean that there will be no new agreements. They will. Only more expensive.
However, according to sources, these "demonstration performances", although they attract everyone's attention, are nevertheless auxiliary in nature. Their task is to provide PR cover for the second and main process-a sharp increase in street mobilization and raids on all crowded places: markets, shopping centers, any mass events.
The reason for such activation is the total (up to 70%) failure of plans for mobilization.
A second way to get new troops while the current ones are dying is to ask foreign powers to send their men. Zelenski's 'victory plan' includes that step. But his attempts to get it accepted have failed.
He has since come up with an idea to justify the entry of foreign troops on his side of the war.
Zelenski and his media people have for days now claimed that North Korean troops will soon fight on the side of Russia. This, he hopes, will incite western forces to send their own troops to Ukraine if only to counter the North Koreans.
The first take of this media campaign appeared on October 4:
Missile Strike Near Donetsk Eliminates 6 North Korean Officers – Intel - Kyiv Post
Six officers from North Korea were among the 20 soldiers killed in a Ukrainian missile strike on Russian-occupied territory near Donetsk, intelligence sources say.
More than 20 soldiers were killed as a result of an Oct. 3 missile strike on Russian-occupied territory near Donetsk, including six officers from North Korea, who came to confer with their Russian counterparts, Kyiv Post’s intelligence sources said. Three more North Korean servicemen were wounded.
According to reports from Russian social media, prior to the missile strike, the Russians were demonstrating to North Korean representatives the training of personnel for assault actions and defense.
After his failed 'Victory Plan' campaign the former president picked up the theme:
Russia plans to involve North Korea in war in Ukraine this fall, Zelensky says - Kyiv Independent
Russia plans to involve North Korea directly in the full-scale war against Ukraine this fall and winter, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Oct. 14, citing intelligence data.
The announcement comes a day after Zelensky warned of an "increasing alliance" between Moscow and Pyongyang.
According to Ukraine's military intelligence, Russia's plans for the fall and winter include "the actual involvement of North Korea in the war," Zelensky said.
...
Zelensky warned on Oct. 13 that Russia and North Korea were deepening their alliance, saying that the partnership had escalated to the point where North Korea was sending personnel to Ukraine's front lines along with weapons.
...
The warning followed reports from South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun that North Korea is likely to deploy regular troops to Ukraine to aid Russia at the front.
Reports have also emerged in recent days that North Korean officers were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike in Russian-occupied territory. The Kyiv Independent has not been able to verify these reports, which have not been confirmed beyond a single intelligence source.
Since then Ukrainian media have added this or bit to the story all based on the same 'intelligence sources'.
Russia forms "Buryat battalion" staffed by North Koreans: 18 soldiers already fled positions - Pravda.ua
The Russians assembled a "special Buryat battalion" recruited from among citizens of Democratic People's Republic of Korea, while 18 North Korean personnel have already escaped from positions located along the border of Russia's Bryansk and Kursk oblasts.
Source: Ukrainska Pravda sources in Ukraine’s special services
Details: According to Ukrainska Pravda, this occurred 7 kilometres from the state border with Ukraine.
...
Previously, reports circulated concerning the assembling of a "special Buryat battalion" in the Russian army.
The estimated number of personnel in the unit is up to 3,000.
The battalion is expected to be involved in combat activities around the settlements of Sudzha and Kursk.
Some 3,000 men would constitute 6 full fledged infantry battalions, not one.
To have North Koreans fighting in Russia against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk would make little sense. That incursion is for one already mostly defeated.
Besides that the language and cultural problems would make the integration of such forces into Russian military operations nearly impossible. I am sure that the Russian military would be strongly against it.
Zelenski's claims were amplified through various proxies and media appearances (edited machine translation):
The Russian Army wants to achieve maximum results before winter and is not preparing for frosts. This was stated by the speaker of the group "Lugansk" Anastasia Bobovnikova on the air of the telethon.
...
Also, Suspilne, citing an intelligence source , reports that Russia wants to send North Korean military personnel to the Kursk region.
It is reported that now the Russian army is forming a special battalion of up to 3,000 people, staffed by North Korean citizens, on the basis of 11 ODSHBRS.
The process of providing the battalion with small arms and ammunition is already underway.
I regard the whole claim of North Korean troops in Russia as a fake news story and I am sure that most experts will follow me in that judgment.
However, today U.S. media manage to play up the nonsense:
Why North Korea is sending soldiers to the Russian front lines - Washington Post
Sending solders to help Russia’s war effort against Ukraine could earn valuable foreign currency for Kim Jong Un’s regime and bolster their strengthening ties.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week confirmed reports of North Korean troops supporting Russians inside Ukraine, warning that the alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang is growing stronger and evolving beyond transferring weapons.
A Ukrainian military intelligence official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter, told The Washington Post last week that “several thousand” North Korean infantry soldiers are undergoing training in Russia now and could be deployed to the front line in Ukraine by the end of this year.
South Korea’s defense minister Kim Yong-hyun last week called the reports of North Korean military personnel helping Russia “highly likely.” The Kremlin has dismissed the assertion as a “hoax.”
I do not believe that any politician or military in the west will believe that nonsense which is again solely sourced to Ukrainian military intelligence claims. But there is clear campaign by the Ukrainian government to make the issue stick. What is its hope? To induce South Korea to send its forces to fight North Koreans on the Ukrainian border with Russia?
Another way to get foreign forces to fight on the Ukrainian side is to make them swap their current uniforms for Ukrainian ones. A new Ukrainian law recently made that easier:
Foreign citizens and stateless persons were allowed to take officer roles within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the State Special Transport Service of Ukraine, and the National Guard of Ukraine. The Verkhovna Rada has adopted the law on the matter drafted by the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.
Before this, foreigners and stateless persons were limited to roles at the enlisted personnel and NCO levels.
...
The news of that change came at the same time as the UK mulles about sending military instructors to Ukraine. Swapping the instructors uniforms could make such an effort less dangerous.
Posted by b on October 15, 2024 at 16:49 UTC | Permalink
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/u ... .html#more
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Report: Ukraine Considers Ceding Territory to End War With Russia
October 15, 2024
By Dave DeCamp, Antiwar.com, 10/14/24
The Ukrainian government is considering options to end the war with Russia that would involve ceding territory, Der Spiegel reported on Sunday, citing a Ukrainian official.
The report said it was the first time since Russia’s invasion in February 2022 that the Ukrainian leadership has considered a deal that wouldn’t involve it getting back all of the territory Russian forces have captured since February 2022.
Under a peace deal that was on the table in March and April 2022, Russia would have withdrawn its forces back to pre-invasion lines. But that deal was discouraged by the US and other NATO countries, who urged the Ukrainians to fight.
Over the past two years, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing a “peace formula” that calls for a full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine before peace talks can even happen, which is a non-starter for negotiations with Moscow.
“We believed that victory had to mean the unconditional surrender of Putin’s Russia,” the Ukrainian source told Der Spiegel. The official acknowledged that was not a realistic view, saying, “A deal must also be beneficial for Russia.”
The report comes as Russian forces continue to make gains in eastern Ukraine, which have become more rapid in recent months. Ukrainian forces still hold a small chunk of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, but Russian troops are slowly pushing them back.
The Ukrainian official said that Kyiv believes the US will slowly wind down its support for Ukraine whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November. Trump is running on ending the war while Harris is vowing to continue supporting Kyiv.
“Whether it’s Trump or Harris, the Americans will slowly but surely withdraw,” the official said. “The prognosis is poor.”
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/rep ... th-russia/
If this happens the Nazis will kill the Clown as promised unless he flees, and maybe even then.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V
Victory Plan
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/17/2024
“We hear the word negotiations from our partners , but the word justice is heard much less often,” Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday in his speech to the Ukrainian Rada. “Ukraine is open to diplomacy, but honest diplomacy. That is why we have the Peace Formula. It is a guarantee of negotiating without forcing Ukraine to accept injustice. Ukrainians deserve a decent peace,” the Ukrainian president continued in his presentation of the Victory Plan to deputies and other authorities of the country’s political and security apparatus. Kiev’s intentions are clear: to achieve a position of strength in which Ukraine does not have to yield to Russian demands. Nothing indicates that there has been any change in the way of thinking of the Ukrainian leadership, which has always understood justice as something that only the part of the population under its control deserves, without those on the other side of the front and whose territories it aspires to recover having a say in the future of the country.
“We have achieved and are achieving results in battles thanks to our unity. So, please, let us not lose our unity. Let us work together. For the sake of Ukraine. For the sake of Ukraine’s victory,” Zelensky added in his speech. Considering that thousands of Ukrainian citizens are fighting, many of them for several years, against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, any claim to unity must be understood as referring only to that population that remains loyal to kyiv. That other part of the citizenry in the areas under Russian control not only does not deserve to be heard, but has even been eliminated as a factor to be taken into account. In that sense, none of the proposals put forward by Zelensky have ever been about peace, which would necessarily imply compromise with a part of the population that thinks differently, but about imposing kyiv’s victory. The new plan is no exception and is also a proposal for victory that is not only over Russia, but also over Donbass and Crimea.
“Among other things, the Victory Plan allows all Ukrainians to unite even more around a common goal. That is why I am now addressing you. May our joint work on the Victory Plan turn into peace for Ukraine as soon as possible. I thank all those who stand with Ukraine. I am proud of all our people. And I believe in Ukraine,” the president wrote in a post on social media, ending with the usual Slava Ukraini , the OUN-UPA chant. However, the plan presented yesterday lacks content for the population and, as the way it has been developed perfectly illustrates, is just a wish list that must be granted primarily by foreign partners. It is therefore logical that the proposal was first presented to Joe Biden, president of Ukraine’s main supplier, then to the leaders of the main powers of the European Union, which today supports the Ukrainian state, and as a last step, to the Parliament, the seat of popular sovereignty.
As expected, Zelensky's proposal contains no major innovations, but merely presents the conditions that Ukraine hopes to create through war, so it is more a reflection of kyiv's wishes than a plan to achieve them. In fact, the way in which the President's Office hopes to make this proposal a reality can be summed up in two words: military pressure. As the Ukrainian president had already anticipated last week on his trip to Croatia, the first point of the Victory Plan - not a peace plan - concerns NATO. Ukraine is demanding from its partners an invitation to join in the coming months, specifically before the end of the current US legislative session, after which kyiv faces uncertainty even with a victory for Kamala Harris, with whom the relationship seems much more distant than with the current president. The plan “is not just about NATO,” said Mark Rutte, the new secretary general, yesterday, to divert attention from an invitation that the Alliance has not granted at its two previous summits and that is not expected now either, despite speculation about the possibility - uncertain - of a peace agreement for territories plus NATO membership . In his speech, Zelensky admitted that Ukraine will not join NATO while the war lasts, but the country demands a formal invitation. It is the new way of trying to achieve what Kiev has been trying to achieve for years: a plan that affirms that the decision has been made and a calendar in which a certain date marks Ukraine's entry into the bloc. Although Rutte confirmed that Zelensky's plan will be on the table in next week's negotiations, his speech sounded like a continuation. “Today I cannot point out exactly what the path will be, but I am absolutely confident that, in the future, Ukraine will join us,” he said in a statement whose content is exactly what Ukraine is trying to avoid.
The second point, also predictable, is that of defence, for which Ukraine demands what it has been begging its partners for months: more heavy weapons, lifting of the vetoes on the use of long-range Western equipment on continental Russian territory and participation in the shooting down of Russian missiles. In other words, Ukraine seeks to extend the war to Russian territory while its allies help to mitigate the foreseeable increase in the use of missiles in the event that the bombing of strategic military targets in the Russian Federation begins. To achieve this, despite the fact that the United States has already denied the possibility, Ukraine appeals to George W. Bush's axis of evil - Russia, Iran and North Korea - and especially to the example of the Middle East and the actions of Washington and its European allies in the shooting down of Iranian missiles. To Kiev's chagrin, its American allies understand the differences between the two situations. Participating directly in the defence of its Israeli ally against Iran does not imply increasing the risk of direct confrontation with a nuclear power. Despite Ukraine's attempt to present its cause as central to international relations at the moment, its position will not be able to compete with that of Israel, a much more important strategic ally for the United States than kyiv will ever be.
The third point is also related to the military sphere and, like the previous one, contains classified sections. In this case, Zelensky seeks to define the day after the war with a continental security structure openly designed against Russia, the second continental power and the largest and most populous country. The demand of the Ukrainian president, who insists on implementing his plan in the next three months to end the war “at the latest next year”, is a non-nuclear deterrent located on its territory and which would guarantee the country's security against future aggressions. “Russia must forever lose control over Ukraine and even lose the desire for that control. This is a guarantee of life for Ukraine. And at the same time, it is a guarantee of peace for Europe,” insisted Zelensky, who seems to propose a massive remilitarization of the country in which missile systems from NATO countries would presumably be installed. The example is reminiscent of the armed and extremely militarized peace on the border between the two Koreas, a scenario that can hardly be described as peace, understood not as the absence of war but of conflict.
Ukraine is not demanding a Marshall Plan in its proposal, as it has done on previous occasions, possibly to avoid being seen as an overly absorbing proxy always waiting for more money. Hence the fourth point, concerning reconstruction and the post-war economy, proposes huge investments, but also compensations. According to The Kyiv Independent yesterday , the proposal “addresses Ukraine’s use of its natural resources, such as uranium, titanium and lithium, which have economic growth potential for Kiev and the EU. Ukraine offers a special agreement for joint investment and use of these resources with the EU and the US”, a polite way of saying that Kiev intends to put a part of the country’s natural wealth at the service of its partners. The idea is reminiscent of the statements made a few months ago by Senator Lindsey Graham, who said that Ukraine “sits on trillions of dollars in minerals that could be good for our economy”.
The last point of Zelensky's plan is undoubtedly the most curious. As a contribution to collective security and also as a way of reducing costs, Ukraine proposes, taking advantage of the combat experience of the war, to replace some American units stationed in Europe if that is the will of its partners. kyiv thus intends to provide a somewhat naive way, given the difficulties it currently faces in replenishing its ranks, so that the United States can withdraw part of its contingent and reduce costs and leave continental security in European hands, specifically Ukrainian ones.
The scant new developments in Zelensky's plan have meant that reactions have been limited. The proposal is nothing more than a wish list of aspirations from the Ukrainian President's Office, which aims to achieve its goals by means of military pressure that would require a volume of long-range missiles that its allies are not prepared to provide. Perhaps the most significant aspect of the long-awaited presentation is that, on the same day that Zelensky announced Ukraine's conditions to the Rada, Chancellor Scholz confirmed to his parliament that, following Ukraine's suggestion that it would allow Russia to attend a peace summit, Germany is not only willing to talk to Russia, but also to its president.
“Zelensky’s plan for victory is what it is: a completely unrealistic plan, or rather an ultimatum to the Western allies, which is probably designed to prepare society for the inevitability of peace talks and a very painful compromise. The next line of this song is: The West has betrayed us,” wrote yesterday, in an excessively pessimistic way for Ukraine, the Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin, who considers that “the gigantic bubble of surreal delusions, blatant lies and cowardly self-deceptions surrounding this conflict is about to burst.” Meanwhile, as it became clear yesterday, the Ukrainian aspiration is to further escalate the war in the name of, not peace, but victory. “Only “coercion” works. Forcing Russia to live by the rules, within the framework of international law, with mandatory responsibility for what it does/says. Other forms of relations with the Russian Federation, especially those of compromise, only encourage escalation and more aggressive forms of the chronic Russian disease known as "domination through violence and murder." "Stop living in illusions," wrote Mikhail Podolyak yesterday. Ukraine only wants to live in its illusions.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/17/plan-de-victoria/
Google Translator
******
From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Forwarded from
Mayday. Chronicle of a dive.
The contents of the secret appendix to Zelensky's "victory plan" were published by AMVET - in it, Kiev handed over a list of targets for Storm Shadow, JASSM and Taurus missiles in Russia.
The enemies want to carry out strikes in the near future and before winter.
These include gunpowder factories in Kazan, Tambov and Perm, airfields up to 1000 km from the Ukrainian border, military-industrial complex enterprises producing UAVs and missile weapons, as well as headquarters and command posts in Rostov, Voronezh, Moscow, Belgorod, Kursk and St. Petersburg.
The list also includes logistics centers, training grounds, transport hubs, including the Crimean Bridge, FSB and Russian Guard directorates, air defense units at ranges of up to 500 km, weapons depots, the Black Sea Fleet base in Novorossiysk, a command post near Sochi and a number of federal government agencies "up to 1000 km from the launch sites."
In essence, this is an expanded list of targets from ISW - it then lists critical infrastructure in border regions, oil refineries and "megaterminals" like Pskov, repair shops of the Ministry of Defense and special services.
Earlier, Zelensky proposed a plan for defeating Russia consisting of five main points and three secret ones. Advisor to the head of Zelensky's office, Mykhailo Podolyak, admitted that the secret appendices indicate the necessary weapons and targets for inflicting a strategic defeat on the Russian Federation.
***
Colonelcassad
Rybar: Kursk direction: liberation of the eastern part of Lyubimovka and battle in the area of Kremyanoye,
the situation as of the end of October 16, 2024
In the Kursk direction, Russian troops liberated the eastern part of Lyubimovka . At the same time, in the area of Kremyanoye, Russian attack aircraft destroyed an enemy tank in a heavy battle that had knocked out their armored personnel carrier.
In the Glushkovsky district, no changes in the combat situation were recorded. Russian troops are fighting on the approaches to Novy Put , while the enemy has organized a new line of defense to the south of the railway track.an FV 432 armored personnel carrier was spotted
on this section of the front , which had previously "flashed" on the Internet as being in service with the separate presidential brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the moment, it is not entirely clear whether the vehicle was transferred to the Kursk region as part of units from the "native" unit, or was transferred to other units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to replace lost armored vehicles.In the Korenevsky district, the Russian Armed Forces advanced in the eastern part of Lyubimovka with the support of armored vehicles, which is confirmed by objective control footage. Ukrainian formations launched an unsuccessful attack on Zeleny Shlyakh with support from Novoivanovka .At the same time, the road between Zeleny Shlyakh and Lyubimovka is mined, which complicates the interaction of Russian units - in a video that appeared on the Internet, the above-mentioned armored group of the Russian Armed Forces lost at least one armored vehicle here.- In the Sverdlikovo area , according to some information, Russian troops "covered" a column of armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces moving towards Zeleny Shlyakh . The defeat was inflicted with the help of the Tornado MLRS and the Iskander-M OTRK.Footage has appeared on the Internet demonstrating an episode of one of the battles southwest of Kremyanoye . The Russian APC, apparently, mistook the Ukrainian tanks for friendly ones, as a result of which it approached them at a dangerous distance and was destroyed by a direct hit.However, a significant part of the landing party survived, the fighters left the APC and took up positions in the nearest forest belt, taking advantage of the poor visibility of the Ukrainian crew. After that, the enemy tank was destroyed by the surviving Russian attack aircraft.In the Sudzhansky district, the situation on the Kolmakov-Agronom line has not changed. To the south, the enemy launched an attack in the Plekhovo area with the aim of dislodging the Russian Armed Forces from their previously occupied positions near the Psel River. The attack was repelled by Russian troops with the support of aviation and artillery.
In the Sumy region, the Russian Aerospace Forces struck the rear infrastructure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Yunakovka , Miropolye and Alexandria , and the Geran-2 UAVs attacked targets in Akhtyrka.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
******
What’s Behind The Claims That North Korea Sent Troops To Fight Ukraine?
Andrew Korybko
Oct 16, 2024
The truth will ultimately reveal itself, but for now, it’s best for Alt-Media to be skeptical.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed a South Korean claim last week that North Korean troops had been sent to the special operation zone to fight Ukraine, yet Zelensky still ran with the report over the weekend, after which it was maximally amplified by Mainstream Media outlets like CNN. Some prominent Alt-Media accounts also lent credence to this story too. Ukrainian media then shortly thereafter alleged that 18 of these North Korean troops went AWOL near the international border.
These reports coincide with three developments: 1) Germany, which is Ukraine’s second-largest donor, just became the latest country after Poland to max out its military support; 2) Russia is preparing to ratify summer’s updated strategic partnership agreement with North Korea that reaffirms their mutual defense commitments; 3) and North Korean-South Korean tensions have once again begun to worsen. The relevance of each development to these latest reports will now be explained.
Regarding the first, Russia’s lead in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” will only further grow unless Western countries dig into their remaining stockpiles that they’ve preserved for meeting their minimum national security needs in order to desperately narrow the gap. The latest news might therefore have been concocted to pressure them into doing so on the false pretext that North Korea is directly intervening in the conflict so it’s now more about “democracies vs. dictatorships” than ever before.
As for the second, Russia’s impending ratification of its updated deal with North Korea lends a veneer of believability to these reports by making observers think that it might have already secretly entered into force before this legal formality was completed. Ukraine’s continued occupation of parts of Russia’s Kursk Region could have imbued the mutual defense aspect of their pact with a heightened sense of urgency in their minds, thus explaining why some Alt-Media accounts also fell for what seems to be a lie.
And finally, South Korea provoked the latest tensions with North Korea by flying propaganda drones over Pyongyang several times between 3-11 October, which could have been done in hindsight to add another layer of intrigue to the subsequent reports about North Korean troops fighting Ukraine. This artificially manufactured context might accordingly make some imagine that Russia and North Korea are “jointly challenging the rules-based order”, which could thus facilitate the preceding two goals.
With these three points in mind, it compellingly appears as though the latest reports are fake news. If it turns out that there’s any truth to them, however, then the purpose behind this deployment would be to bolster Russia’s military logistics, replenish some of its lost forces, help cover holes in the border, and/or prepare for a breakthrough if the opportunity presents itself such as if Pokrovsk is captured. The truth will ultimately reveal itself, but for now, it’s best for Alt-Media to be skeptical.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/whats-be ... that-north
Little Andy is now the fact checker for the 'Alt media'...
******
Ukraine - The Real Story Of High Disability Numbers
Like others here to follow Simplicius' substack Situation Reports on the war Ukraine. While at times lengthy and speculative they provide a good summary and dozens of sources.
Yesterday Simplicius tweeted :
SIMPLICIUS Ѱ @simpatico771 - 21:18 UTC · Oct 15, 2024
Did Zelensky's wife just admit AFU losses? 300k disabled forming 15-20% of total WIA would be 1.5M wounded. And 1.5M WIA forming 3:1 to 5:1 ratio to KIA should make for 300-500k KIA.
The quoted tweet is wrong though and deserves a correction.
(Image did not 'take'.)
Simplicius is quoting Olena Zelenska (Олена Зеленська @ZelenskaUA), the wife of the (former) president of Ukraine. Yesterday Zelenska indeed tweeted about disabilities in Ukraine but the quoted tweet, about 3 million Ukrainians with disabilities, has since been deleted. (It has also been quoted elsewhere, so we do know that it did existed.)
The cited 'news' of 3 million Ukrainian's with disabilities is not news. It had been officially announced on September 19 2023:
Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski - 23:59 UTC · Sep 19, 2023
At least 300,000 people, primarily military, became disabled during #RussiaUkraineWar: "During the year and a half of the full-scale invasion, the number of Ukrainians with disabilities increased by 300,000. Previously, 2.7 million people with disabilities lived in Ukraine, and now this figure has reached 3 million. This was announced by the Minister of Social Policy." https://life.pravda.com.ua/society/2023/09/19/256633/
Now, thirteen month later, the real number will be much higher. But the astonishing increase in the number of officially disabled people in Ukraine is only slightly related to the number of wounded Ukrainian soldiers. It is simply an expression of the corruption typical for the Ukrainian government and its wider society.
Even completely healthy men in Ukraine are eager to be declared disabled because it allows them to escape military service. To achieve that status huge amounts of bribes are paid to the relevant commissions and doctors.
A recent Starna piece took a deeper look into this (edited machine translations):
Corruption schemes in MSEC. Who receives millions of disability payments?
The number of corruption scandals surrounding Medical and Social Expert Commissions (MSEC) has significantly increased in Ukraine. When searching the apartments of medical experts, law enforcement officers find huge million-dollar stashes in foreign currency, and MSEC members with modest salaries are found to have expensive real estate, including abroad, and businesses registered for close relatives.
Strana found out how the MSEC's corruption schemes work.
There are three official degrees of disabilities in Ukraine. The commission decides, with the help of medical expert testimony, under which category a person falls. Bribes are paid for the various degrees. A temporary disability status is cheaper but has to be renewed every year, a permanent one is more expensive.
According to Strana's sources in the police, after the outbreak of the war, a peculiar price list for assigning disabilities to potentially mobilized men appeared in the MSEC.
The first group – from 8 to 10 thousand dollars, the second - 7 to 8 thousand, the third - from 5 thousand up. The amount of bribes varies depending on the region, and most of them were taken by MSEC members in large cities. Part of the bribes - from 500 to a thousand dollars - went to intermediaries who found those who wanted it.
The most popular diseases for fictitious assignment of disability groups were neuropsychiatric, brain and musculoskeletal diseases.
However fake assignments of disability groups cannot be carried out without the support of "related parties" - trusted doctors in specialized state clinics and diagnostic centers - radiologists, magnetic resonance imaging specialists. To assign a disability group, you need grounds in the form of a serious diagnosis with a medical history and conclusions of doctors. Therefore, the bribes had to be shared, but the main share, up to 70 percent of the amount, remained to MSEC members.
After the entry into force of the law on tougher mobilization, disability prices have risen sharply. And now disability "costs" from 10 to 20 thousand dollars.
There are two other categories where bribes are flowing.
People who have to care for a disabled relative are also excepted from military service. Men who have an elderly mother do seek to have her disability status increased to gain an exception for themselves:
The amount of bribes for granting the right to deferral to relatives of disabled people is slightly less. From 6 to 10 thousand dollars. The scheme of this kind is quite simple – for a bribe, a previously fully capable disabled person of the first or second group receives the status of a person in need of care. After that, the disabled person points to the person who is ready to provide him with care. Next, the MSEC issues a document on caring for a disabled person and, on the basis of such a document, the man receives a deferral in the mobilization office
The huge increase of the number of Ukrainians with disability status is thus not a consequence of people wounded due to the war. Their number probably does not exceed the number of disabled people who die over the years. The reason for the increase is the systemic corruption in Ukraine which can seemingly be found in any government office. There is also corruption involved in gaining such lucrative government positions.
The 300,000+ additionally disabled may well have paid an average of $7,500 to gain that status. This sums up to $2.25 billion that have been distributed within the system.
In general, we are talking about huge corruption flows in the tens of millions of dollars received by corrupt officials of MSEC, which are structurally part of the system of the Ministry of Security of Ukraine.
According to the source of Strana in the MSEC, part of this money is transferred by the heads of commissions to their superiors-functionaries of the Ministry of Health.
Therefore, the amount of bribes for positions in the MEC after the war also went through the roof - from 20 thousand dollars for a member of the commission to 100 thousand dollars for the post of head of the inter-district MEC.
The disabilities numbers, which Simplicius is using to estimate the number of Ukrainian soldiers wounded in the war, do tell a story. But it is only tangentially related to the number of people who really get wounded.
Posted by b on October 16, 2024 at 10:48 UTC | Permalink
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/u ... .html#more
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Jihadi Julian does not believe in victory
Jihadi Julian did not appreciate the "Peremoga plan".
"I listened to Zelensky's victory plan... Oh, my God.
"There will be no accession to NATO, no permission to strike deep into Russia with Western weapons, no joint air defense against Russian aviation. And there is no longer any talk of completely liberating the country. There are no words."
Judging by Repke's disappointment, he expected something different, but when he listened, an abyss of chatter divorced from reality opened up before him.
However, Repke has long been a treasonist about what is happening in Ukraine, since in 2022 and 2023 he expected "the military and economic defeat of Russia", but reality hit him on the head with a heavy blow.
As a result, he has already lived to see accusations that he works for the Kremlin, although he has been consistently pushing against the Russian Federation for more than 10 years. Both in Syria and in Ukraine.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9443197.html
The problem of the extra zero
Just one extra zero and the topic of contract service has taken on a new meaning.
In fact, it's a common mistake of designer girls.
Monthly payments across the country for SVO participants are around 210,000 (plus there are regional bonuses).
Now only the signing bonus is growing, which fluctuates between 1 and 2 million rubles across the country + in some regions they also give a plot of land on top, like in Sevastopol and Crimea.
Well, the social package for families is gradually expanding due to various benefits, loan write-offs, etc. Foreigners can also get citizenship on an accelerated basis.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9444330.html
Google Translator
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Peace is just around the corner...
Zelensky's victory plan. Nationalists for peace - or not? The paradox of Ukrainian liberal doomers. No diplomacy, yes war. My own self criticism
Events in Ukraine
Oct 17, 2024
Yesterday, Zelensky finally unveiled his mighty ‘victory plan’ to the Ukrainian public. To begin with, there was nothing new - entry to NATO and more military aid being the main point. Second, a few questions were raised by the fact that it was presented to the Ukrainian public quite some time after being triumphantly (and fruitlessly) presented to Ukraine’s ‘western partners’. And even then, several points are still ‘too secret’ to speak about. And do I even have to talk about his obsessive references to Ukraine’s mineral riches and its importance for western investors?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for additional support for Ukraine's defense and an invitation to join NATO during a Wednesday address in Kyiv.
So what is the meaning of this plan? And all the other ‘peace ‘plans’, or promises, or whatever they are, which crowd up western media nowadays. And what about other pearls from Zelensky like his October 9 statement that the battlefield ‘creates an opportunity’ to bring an end to the war in 2025?
You don’t have to be a keen follower of the war in Ukraine to be struck with a sense of déjà vu. There certainly isn’t only one obvious interpretation of all these statements, rumors, and media columns. I’m going to present several possible interpretations, then take stock at the end.
Ukrainian society wants peace?
When I say ‘society’, I don’t mean the majority of Ukrainians. Their opinion has never meant much anyway. What I mean by this - and this is also what is meant when ‘Ukrainian society’ and its opinions is mentioned in western or Ukrainian media - is that minority of society, numbering around 20-30%, which has committed its life to nationalist political or military organizations. There are broadly two groups here.
First, nationalists who fight in the frontlines and are generally affiliated in some way to the Azov movement, the Right Sector network, and other complex paramilitary/parapolitical entities. Second, the liberal NGO nationalists who generally stay far from the war, often called Sorosites or, more recently, ‘the new nobility'. Both have their relationships with US funding/training networks, which Moss Robeson covers fantastically on his substack.
If you’ve been following my telegram roundups, you will have read the Ukrainian militarists complaining about how gay, draft-evading western-funded NGO liberals/Zelensky are intent on prosecuting the war until the last Ukrainian patriot. Tales of the IV Reich, a telegram run by an Azov sergeant, is particularly keen on this line of thought - that the US democrats (he is himself pro-Trump) are pushing Ukraine into an endless war that is ruining its demographic potential forever.
There’s been no shortage of similar voices lately as well. Major Kyryllo Veres is a quite well-known officer in the K2 Battalion - the second line mechanized battalion of the 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade. He is often interviewed by various media, and is respected by just about all militarists.
I already wrote how at the start of this year, Veres was harshly criticized by the state-run ‘Centre for the Prevention of Disinformation’ (cue 1984 joke), because Veres stated in an interview that Zelensky’s slogan of the 1991 borders or bust was untenable. In that conflict, he was supported by Tales of the IV Reich.
Anyway, Veres has done it again. In an October 10 interview, Veres had this to say:
I don’t think we have the potential to get to the borders of ‘91. If we had that, why are we losing Vuhledar and still fighting around Bakhmut? I don't even think about the borders of '91. I'm thinking about how not to lose the positions I have now. We were heading to the borders in 2023, 2024, in three months it will be 2025, and we're still moving toward the borders of '91 – only in the opposite direction. Maybe it's time to stop fucking up? We need to stand our ground, and only then can we talk about moving forward. Right now, we're stepping backwards in giant strides. What kind of fucking forward are we talking about? Who is saying this? Who believes in this? It’s some kind of surrealism.
When asked about the Chinese/Brazilian peace plans (freezing the frontline as is) and whether Ukrainians would accept such an unsatisfactory outcome, he replied:
It’s one thing to talk out your ass, it’s another to head to a trench and shoot a Russian
On that topic, I’ll note that in April of this year Tales of the IV Reich, Veres’ ally, in fact posted in favour of Ukraine working together with China to end the war instead of the destructive US:
The war can only end with an agreement between both sides, with the involvement of guarantees from the world's powerful nations. I’ve already written hundreds of times, and I’ll write it again: one of our weaknesses in this war is the lack of adequate relations with China. It is a hegemon of global development and a powerful economy, which, overall since 1991, and particularly since 2014, has been largely ignored. Unfortunately, I have an idea why this has happened. Because someone decided that Ukraine’s national idea is to look up to the same Russians who live on the other side of the ocean.
Veres also added that if his unit doesn’t get a 3-4 month rest, they won’t be able to continue fighting. I’ve written about the lack of rotations and its relation to the desertion crisis at length here. In short, all the motivated nationalists have been/are being used up in war, and the mobilized replacements mutiny rather than fight.
Don’t misunderstand me - Veres is no pacifist. In an interview from a few days later, he called on civilians to ‘take off their rose-tinted glasses’ and get ready for war and mobilization. He supports a stronger defense pose, rather than any ‘capitulation of Ukrainian interests’ (read: any formal compromises with the Russian Federation):
I’m not in favour of giving anything up - we need to fight. But we need to take another approach.
He also had plenty of praise for the military effectiveness of the Russian forces he faces at the frontline, and dismissed the stereotypes of incompetent Russian meat storms. Instead, he pointed out that Ukraine hasn’t taken back any territory from Russia, and that Ukraine itself suffers major losses - ‘so what, are we idiots too?’ This, by the way, is quite a common topic for serving nationalists in interviews - they are quite fed up with the liberal/Zelensky media lines about incompetent Russian soldiers.
Serhii Krivonos, an ex-general who is often interviewed by liberal-nationalist media, also wasn’t optimistic. In an October 8 interview, he described the situation at the front for AFU soldiers as ‘total shit’:"We need to understand that only a miracle can save Ukraine at this stage if we don't draw real conclusions from the situation and change our attitude toward what we have in the country," said Krivonos.
“The Russian army is actively forming assault units, and in many areas, due to these assault units, which are being transferred from other parts, they are combining such groups and, clearly understanding where the weak spots are, trying to break through the dam called the Ukrainian army, like melting water.
…
What the authorities are saying and what's happening on the front lines are completely different – this has been going on for more than a day, more than a month, but now the situation has reached the point where it will soon be very difficult to fight because, as the infantrymen themselves said, infantry is starting to die out as a branch of the military because there is no one to fight, nothing to fight with, and nowhere to fight."
There is clearly sentiment in the army in favor of solidly assuming the defensive. And the liberal nationalists have also been echoing them. This, despite the fact that this group often tend to actually be more rigidly militaristic than the serving nationalists themselves - largely because the liberals are often far from the frontlines.
Ostap Drozdov, for instance, is a typical example of the western Ukrainain ‘patriotic intelligentsia’. He gave an October 13 interview titled ‘this is the dying agony of the system of coercion’, responding partly to the mass mobilization activities conducted, in part, at ‘patriotic’ music concerts.
The interviewer also asked Drozdov about the meaning of his recent facebook post describing in detail the massive economic, ecological, and demographic losses Ukraine has suffered in the war. Drozdov answered that there was no need to explain it, the figures stood for themselves:
By continuing this war, it’s as if Ukraine were suicidal, some kind of fata morgana
Complications
Unfortunately, I don’t think peace has much chances at the moment. Neither the standard frontline militarists nor the liberal nationalists have any interest in actually entertaining any political compromises with Russia - removing NATO-membership as a goal in the constitution, for instance. Drozdov and other nationalist doomers blame Ukraine’s suicidal course on ‘the stupid masses’, who ‘have no consciousness’ and are naturally ‘far from being European’.
This is an increasingly common refrain nowadays, particularly among Poroshenkites for whom the stupid Russian-speaking Jew Zelensky is the cause of the war and all other problems. But it ignores the fact that most Ukrainians have never had much impact on politics - their main preoccupation has always been survival in a darwinian neoliberal society. It is the nationalist minority which has taken decisions in the country.
The majority of the country voted for Zelensky in 2019 to bring an end to the war - and once the nationalists vetoed his tentative steps towards reconciliation with Russia, the weak-willed Zelensky went along with the minority. But as usual, the liberals and nationalists are constructing their favorite myth of how they were betrayed by the stupid masses who voted in a pro-Russian populist - just like what happened in 1917-1920 (in fact, nationalists use this optic to explain just about everything in Ukrainian history).
Problems from the first White House
Ukraine’s presidential administration
But anyway, onto everyone’s favorite Zelensky. As you should be able to tell from this substack, he has no shortage of enemies in Ukraine - a list which only grows as the war ends. His callous extortion of Ukraine’s business class makes any sort of peacetime semi-democracy particularly dangerous. It is rather obvious that any end to the war and political democratization would be bad news for the president.
In response to the latest statement in late September from Kamala Harris that ‘the US won’t decide anything without Ukraine’s input’, Tales of the IV Reich had this to say:
In order for issues to be resolved with Ukraine's participation, elections are needed, where the citizens of Ukraine can respond to the devastating policies of the government, during which an unknown number of thousands of citizens have died, hundreds of thousands have been injured, tens of thousands are in captivity suffering daily torture, several million have emigrated permanently, and 25% of the country is occupied by foreign troops with no hint of return. Earlier, I believed that elections were unnecessary and that the current president, as one of the culprits of the tragedy, should bear personal responsibility for what is happening and thus should finish it himself. However, my hopes and desire to see humanity in those who lost it long ago are fading. There is no hint of a military junta coming to power, as the likely candidates for that role would only add more madness with watermelons in Foros. The only option left is democratic elections, where the citizens of Ukraine can voice their opinions. I think that, through conditional China and India, it would be possible to agree on some kind of one-week ceasefire regime for such a parade of justice, but who would even want that?
He gets right to the core of the idiocy of western media statements about ‘Ukrainian agency’. No ‘country’ really has agency - its leaders do, different political groups might (Hezbollah in Lebanon, for instance), but ‘the people’ as a whole never exists. This is particularly so in Ukraine, where the majority of the population are crammed into minibuses kicking and screaming by mobilization officers with automatic weapons.
Also note his ridicule for the idea of a military junta coming to power. People often ask me how likely this is, and there was even a forbes article recently about the possibility of a nationalist coup in response to any potential peace overtures by Zelensky. I’ve seen several polls on this topic on nationalist telegrams, with the majority of responses ridiculing the very question, and choosing the option of leaving the country or doing nothing. Soldiers are either deserting, essentially enslaved by the army, and if they’re nationalists, they know that any coup would simply be ideal for their Russian enemy at the frontline.
Furthermore, as this article should show, it seems to me that Zelensky is a great deal more interested in continuing the war than the nationalists themselves. Don’t forget that before the war, Ukraine’s nationalists ridiculed him as a treacherous crypto-Russian Jew. Nowadays, you can tell what they’re thinking at the back of their mind - you’re just continuing this war to get rid of us, your most powerful political opponents.
The other white house
You’ll notice I haven’t said anything about the upcoming US elections - the elephant in the room in any discussion of the war in Ukraine.
I have little confidence that the Americans are interested in an end to the war - both parties. I don’t put much stock in the fact that the NYT or other demparty-adjacent publications put out material criticizing Zelensky and proposing some kind of ‘German solution’, where the remaining sections of Ukraine would join NATO and the parts controlled by Russia would be abandoned.
This ignores an even more important elephant in the room - Russia. Putin entered Ukraine because he didn’t want the country in NATO or integrated with it in any way. So why on earth would Russia agree to Ukraine joining NATO, when Russia is winning on the frontlines?
I don’t think you have to be a genius to imagine other difficult aspects of such genius ‘peace plans’. For instance, the fact that any (quite likely, and probably ceaseless) Russian attack on the NATO part of Ukraine would activate article 5, creating the Russia-NATO war that all NATO leaders have been very open about wanting to avoid.
So I don’t see such publications as anything other than the pacification of a war-weary western public.
As for Trump - he was president before, and it was under him that the US first began sending lethal weapons to Ukraine. Mike Pompeo, supposedly one of Trump’s favorites, recently penned a very ‘pro-Ukraine’ think-piece, praised by liberal nationalist Ukrainian media in a subsequent English language interview on the topic. Pompeo raged at insufficient US military aid to Ukraine. And beyond that, Trump is older than he was before, and even then he was neither able, nor, it seems to me, particularly willing to reverse the collective desire of the US foreign policy establishment.
Is he really going to be willing to ‘capitulate to Putin’ by excluding Ukraine from any potential partnership or entry into NATO? With republicans and democrats alike yelling at him about ‘a bigger show of US weakness than Afghanistan’? I doubt it.
Blast to the past
Let me do something quite embarrassing - recall my first article on this substack, back in January 20, 2022.
Blinken wants Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements - notes on the US Secretary of State's visit to Kiev
Events in Ukraine
January 19, 2022
Blinken wants Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements - notes on the US Secretary of State's visit to Kiev
Today US secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived in Kiev to meet with the government. The main topic of discussions was the implementation of the Minsk Agreements for the regulation of the conflict in Donbass, particularly the political aspects of said agreements.
Read full story
Yes, that’s right - peace is right around the corner! I was stuck in Kiev eagerly believing this wonderful idea right until about February 21 of that year, when I realized something else was around the corner.
I wasn’t alone - I got my ideas from the ‘pro-Russian’ social democrats like Dmitry Dzhangirov (soon after violently disappeared, and probably misinterpreted by myself back then anyway) and strana.ua. We all wanted to hope that the US would ‘force Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements to restore relations with Russia’. And occasional statements by US representatives, along with hysteria among Ukrainian nationalists that ‘the west is forcing us to capitulate’, seemed to confirm this hope.
The fact is, that we underestimated US agency. I agree with Adam Tooze’s recent piece - the US isn’t powerless in the face of Israeli or Ukrainian agency, but is instead happy to use them in its geopolitical ends.
Coda
I don’t see the west collapsing economically any time soon because of weapons shipments to Ukraine. It can certainly send enough to slow down movement at the frontline. And both parties in the US are committed to maintaining US global power. Ukraine may not be a particularly winning piece, but it’s one of the few they have in conditions of hegemonic crisis.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s liberal nationalists, while increasingly pessimistic, are hardly enthusiastic for self-criticism. And why would they, given that any real self-criticism would lead them to contemplate the cosmic level of destruction they have inflicted on their country through their selfish idealism?
And Ukraine’s military nationalists, while contemptuous of Zelensky’s idiotic military ‘counter-offensives’ and the like, are also hardly peace doves. They want to dig in for the long run and mobilize all society, kicking and screaming.
Given all this, I have to conclude that the only real variable that plays a role in this war, is, surprise, the war itself. It was the Russian/separatist victories at Debaltseve and Ilovaisk in late 2014/early 2015 that forced Ukraine to sign the Minsk agreements. After deadlock in the Minsk process and failure in US-Russian relations, it was Russia’s launching of its new military intervention in February 2022 that once again transformed the situation.
And in future, too, politics and diplomacy will play second fiddle to events on the frontline. And not just events, but the broader processes I describe in posts like this: military organizational issues and degradation, the dramatic difference in motivation and training between forcibly-mobilized troops and patriotic volunteers, and so on.
Let’s assume that western ‘peace plan’ editorials and Zelensky’s schizophrenic rhetoric are psyops to prepare the public for a new ‘counter-offensive’. The latter always seem to happen right after a spate of the former.
https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... the-corner
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/17/2024
“We hear the word negotiations from our partners , but the word justice is heard much less often,” Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday in his speech to the Ukrainian Rada. “Ukraine is open to diplomacy, but honest diplomacy. That is why we have the Peace Formula. It is a guarantee of negotiating without forcing Ukraine to accept injustice. Ukrainians deserve a decent peace,” the Ukrainian president continued in his presentation of the Victory Plan to deputies and other authorities of the country’s political and security apparatus. Kiev’s intentions are clear: to achieve a position of strength in which Ukraine does not have to yield to Russian demands. Nothing indicates that there has been any change in the way of thinking of the Ukrainian leadership, which has always understood justice as something that only the part of the population under its control deserves, without those on the other side of the front and whose territories it aspires to recover having a say in the future of the country.
“We have achieved and are achieving results in battles thanks to our unity. So, please, let us not lose our unity. Let us work together. For the sake of Ukraine. For the sake of Ukraine’s victory,” Zelensky added in his speech. Considering that thousands of Ukrainian citizens are fighting, many of them for several years, against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, any claim to unity must be understood as referring only to that population that remains loyal to kyiv. That other part of the citizenry in the areas under Russian control not only does not deserve to be heard, but has even been eliminated as a factor to be taken into account. In that sense, none of the proposals put forward by Zelensky have ever been about peace, which would necessarily imply compromise with a part of the population that thinks differently, but about imposing kyiv’s victory. The new plan is no exception and is also a proposal for victory that is not only over Russia, but also over Donbass and Crimea.
“Among other things, the Victory Plan allows all Ukrainians to unite even more around a common goal. That is why I am now addressing you. May our joint work on the Victory Plan turn into peace for Ukraine as soon as possible. I thank all those who stand with Ukraine. I am proud of all our people. And I believe in Ukraine,” the president wrote in a post on social media, ending with the usual Slava Ukraini , the OUN-UPA chant. However, the plan presented yesterday lacks content for the population and, as the way it has been developed perfectly illustrates, is just a wish list that must be granted primarily by foreign partners. It is therefore logical that the proposal was first presented to Joe Biden, president of Ukraine’s main supplier, then to the leaders of the main powers of the European Union, which today supports the Ukrainian state, and as a last step, to the Parliament, the seat of popular sovereignty.
As expected, Zelensky's proposal contains no major innovations, but merely presents the conditions that Ukraine hopes to create through war, so it is more a reflection of kyiv's wishes than a plan to achieve them. In fact, the way in which the President's Office hopes to make this proposal a reality can be summed up in two words: military pressure. As the Ukrainian president had already anticipated last week on his trip to Croatia, the first point of the Victory Plan - not a peace plan - concerns NATO. Ukraine is demanding from its partners an invitation to join in the coming months, specifically before the end of the current US legislative session, after which kyiv faces uncertainty even with a victory for Kamala Harris, with whom the relationship seems much more distant than with the current president. The plan “is not just about NATO,” said Mark Rutte, the new secretary general, yesterday, to divert attention from an invitation that the Alliance has not granted at its two previous summits and that is not expected now either, despite speculation about the possibility - uncertain - of a peace agreement for territories plus NATO membership . In his speech, Zelensky admitted that Ukraine will not join NATO while the war lasts, but the country demands a formal invitation. It is the new way of trying to achieve what Kiev has been trying to achieve for years: a plan that affirms that the decision has been made and a calendar in which a certain date marks Ukraine's entry into the bloc. Although Rutte confirmed that Zelensky's plan will be on the table in next week's negotiations, his speech sounded like a continuation. “Today I cannot point out exactly what the path will be, but I am absolutely confident that, in the future, Ukraine will join us,” he said in a statement whose content is exactly what Ukraine is trying to avoid.
The second point, also predictable, is that of defence, for which Ukraine demands what it has been begging its partners for months: more heavy weapons, lifting of the vetoes on the use of long-range Western equipment on continental Russian territory and participation in the shooting down of Russian missiles. In other words, Ukraine seeks to extend the war to Russian territory while its allies help to mitigate the foreseeable increase in the use of missiles in the event that the bombing of strategic military targets in the Russian Federation begins. To achieve this, despite the fact that the United States has already denied the possibility, Ukraine appeals to George W. Bush's axis of evil - Russia, Iran and North Korea - and especially to the example of the Middle East and the actions of Washington and its European allies in the shooting down of Iranian missiles. To Kiev's chagrin, its American allies understand the differences between the two situations. Participating directly in the defence of its Israeli ally against Iran does not imply increasing the risk of direct confrontation with a nuclear power. Despite Ukraine's attempt to present its cause as central to international relations at the moment, its position will not be able to compete with that of Israel, a much more important strategic ally for the United States than kyiv will ever be.
The third point is also related to the military sphere and, like the previous one, contains classified sections. In this case, Zelensky seeks to define the day after the war with a continental security structure openly designed against Russia, the second continental power and the largest and most populous country. The demand of the Ukrainian president, who insists on implementing his plan in the next three months to end the war “at the latest next year”, is a non-nuclear deterrent located on its territory and which would guarantee the country's security against future aggressions. “Russia must forever lose control over Ukraine and even lose the desire for that control. This is a guarantee of life for Ukraine. And at the same time, it is a guarantee of peace for Europe,” insisted Zelensky, who seems to propose a massive remilitarization of the country in which missile systems from NATO countries would presumably be installed. The example is reminiscent of the armed and extremely militarized peace on the border between the two Koreas, a scenario that can hardly be described as peace, understood not as the absence of war but of conflict.
Ukraine is not demanding a Marshall Plan in its proposal, as it has done on previous occasions, possibly to avoid being seen as an overly absorbing proxy always waiting for more money. Hence the fourth point, concerning reconstruction and the post-war economy, proposes huge investments, but also compensations. According to The Kyiv Independent yesterday , the proposal “addresses Ukraine’s use of its natural resources, such as uranium, titanium and lithium, which have economic growth potential for Kiev and the EU. Ukraine offers a special agreement for joint investment and use of these resources with the EU and the US”, a polite way of saying that Kiev intends to put a part of the country’s natural wealth at the service of its partners. The idea is reminiscent of the statements made a few months ago by Senator Lindsey Graham, who said that Ukraine “sits on trillions of dollars in minerals that could be good for our economy”.
The last point of Zelensky's plan is undoubtedly the most curious. As a contribution to collective security and also as a way of reducing costs, Ukraine proposes, taking advantage of the combat experience of the war, to replace some American units stationed in Europe if that is the will of its partners. kyiv thus intends to provide a somewhat naive way, given the difficulties it currently faces in replenishing its ranks, so that the United States can withdraw part of its contingent and reduce costs and leave continental security in European hands, specifically Ukrainian ones.
The scant new developments in Zelensky's plan have meant that reactions have been limited. The proposal is nothing more than a wish list of aspirations from the Ukrainian President's Office, which aims to achieve its goals by means of military pressure that would require a volume of long-range missiles that its allies are not prepared to provide. Perhaps the most significant aspect of the long-awaited presentation is that, on the same day that Zelensky announced Ukraine's conditions to the Rada, Chancellor Scholz confirmed to his parliament that, following Ukraine's suggestion that it would allow Russia to attend a peace summit, Germany is not only willing to talk to Russia, but also to its president.
“Zelensky’s plan for victory is what it is: a completely unrealistic plan, or rather an ultimatum to the Western allies, which is probably designed to prepare society for the inevitability of peace talks and a very painful compromise. The next line of this song is: The West has betrayed us,” wrote yesterday, in an excessively pessimistic way for Ukraine, the Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin, who considers that “the gigantic bubble of surreal delusions, blatant lies and cowardly self-deceptions surrounding this conflict is about to burst.” Meanwhile, as it became clear yesterday, the Ukrainian aspiration is to further escalate the war in the name of, not peace, but victory. “Only “coercion” works. Forcing Russia to live by the rules, within the framework of international law, with mandatory responsibility for what it does/says. Other forms of relations with the Russian Federation, especially those of compromise, only encourage escalation and more aggressive forms of the chronic Russian disease known as "domination through violence and murder." "Stop living in illusions," wrote Mikhail Podolyak yesterday. Ukraine only wants to live in its illusions.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/17/plan-de-victoria/
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
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Mayday. Chronicle of a dive.
The contents of the secret appendix to Zelensky's "victory plan" were published by AMVET - in it, Kiev handed over a list of targets for Storm Shadow, JASSM and Taurus missiles in Russia.
The enemies want to carry out strikes in the near future and before winter.
These include gunpowder factories in Kazan, Tambov and Perm, airfields up to 1000 km from the Ukrainian border, military-industrial complex enterprises producing UAVs and missile weapons, as well as headquarters and command posts in Rostov, Voronezh, Moscow, Belgorod, Kursk and St. Petersburg.
The list also includes logistics centers, training grounds, transport hubs, including the Crimean Bridge, FSB and Russian Guard directorates, air defense units at ranges of up to 500 km, weapons depots, the Black Sea Fleet base in Novorossiysk, a command post near Sochi and a number of federal government agencies "up to 1000 km from the launch sites."
In essence, this is an expanded list of targets from ISW - it then lists critical infrastructure in border regions, oil refineries and "megaterminals" like Pskov, repair shops of the Ministry of Defense and special services.
Earlier, Zelensky proposed a plan for defeating Russia consisting of five main points and three secret ones. Advisor to the head of Zelensky's office, Mykhailo Podolyak, admitted that the secret appendices indicate the necessary weapons and targets for inflicting a strategic defeat on the Russian Federation.
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Colonelcassad
Rybar: Kursk direction: liberation of the eastern part of Lyubimovka and battle in the area of Kremyanoye,
the situation as of the end of October 16, 2024
In the Kursk direction, Russian troops liberated the eastern part of Lyubimovka . At the same time, in the area of Kremyanoye, Russian attack aircraft destroyed an enemy tank in a heavy battle that had knocked out their armored personnel carrier.
In the Glushkovsky district, no changes in the combat situation were recorded. Russian troops are fighting on the approaches to Novy Put , while the enemy has organized a new line of defense to the south of the railway track.an FV 432 armored personnel carrier was spotted
on this section of the front , which had previously "flashed" on the Internet as being in service with the separate presidential brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the moment, it is not entirely clear whether the vehicle was transferred to the Kursk region as part of units from the "native" unit, or was transferred to other units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to replace lost armored vehicles.In the Korenevsky district, the Russian Armed Forces advanced in the eastern part of Lyubimovka with the support of armored vehicles, which is confirmed by objective control footage. Ukrainian formations launched an unsuccessful attack on Zeleny Shlyakh with support from Novoivanovka .At the same time, the road between Zeleny Shlyakh and Lyubimovka is mined, which complicates the interaction of Russian units - in a video that appeared on the Internet, the above-mentioned armored group of the Russian Armed Forces lost at least one armored vehicle here.- In the Sverdlikovo area , according to some information, Russian troops "covered" a column of armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces moving towards Zeleny Shlyakh . The defeat was inflicted with the help of the Tornado MLRS and the Iskander-M OTRK.Footage has appeared on the Internet demonstrating an episode of one of the battles southwest of Kremyanoye . The Russian APC, apparently, mistook the Ukrainian tanks for friendly ones, as a result of which it approached them at a dangerous distance and was destroyed by a direct hit.However, a significant part of the landing party survived, the fighters left the APC and took up positions in the nearest forest belt, taking advantage of the poor visibility of the Ukrainian crew. After that, the enemy tank was destroyed by the surviving Russian attack aircraft.In the Sudzhansky district, the situation on the Kolmakov-Agronom line has not changed. To the south, the enemy launched an attack in the Plekhovo area with the aim of dislodging the Russian Armed Forces from their previously occupied positions near the Psel River. The attack was repelled by Russian troops with the support of aviation and artillery.
In the Sumy region, the Russian Aerospace Forces struck the rear infrastructure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Yunakovka , Miropolye and Alexandria , and the Geran-2 UAVs attacked targets in Akhtyrka.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
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What’s Behind The Claims That North Korea Sent Troops To Fight Ukraine?
Andrew Korybko
Oct 16, 2024
The truth will ultimately reveal itself, but for now, it’s best for Alt-Media to be skeptical.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed a South Korean claim last week that North Korean troops had been sent to the special operation zone to fight Ukraine, yet Zelensky still ran with the report over the weekend, after which it was maximally amplified by Mainstream Media outlets like CNN. Some prominent Alt-Media accounts also lent credence to this story too. Ukrainian media then shortly thereafter alleged that 18 of these North Korean troops went AWOL near the international border.
These reports coincide with three developments: 1) Germany, which is Ukraine’s second-largest donor, just became the latest country after Poland to max out its military support; 2) Russia is preparing to ratify summer’s updated strategic partnership agreement with North Korea that reaffirms their mutual defense commitments; 3) and North Korean-South Korean tensions have once again begun to worsen. The relevance of each development to these latest reports will now be explained.
Regarding the first, Russia’s lead in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” will only further grow unless Western countries dig into their remaining stockpiles that they’ve preserved for meeting their minimum national security needs in order to desperately narrow the gap. The latest news might therefore have been concocted to pressure them into doing so on the false pretext that North Korea is directly intervening in the conflict so it’s now more about “democracies vs. dictatorships” than ever before.
As for the second, Russia’s impending ratification of its updated deal with North Korea lends a veneer of believability to these reports by making observers think that it might have already secretly entered into force before this legal formality was completed. Ukraine’s continued occupation of parts of Russia’s Kursk Region could have imbued the mutual defense aspect of their pact with a heightened sense of urgency in their minds, thus explaining why some Alt-Media accounts also fell for what seems to be a lie.
And finally, South Korea provoked the latest tensions with North Korea by flying propaganda drones over Pyongyang several times between 3-11 October, which could have been done in hindsight to add another layer of intrigue to the subsequent reports about North Korean troops fighting Ukraine. This artificially manufactured context might accordingly make some imagine that Russia and North Korea are “jointly challenging the rules-based order”, which could thus facilitate the preceding two goals.
With these three points in mind, it compellingly appears as though the latest reports are fake news. If it turns out that there’s any truth to them, however, then the purpose behind this deployment would be to bolster Russia’s military logistics, replenish some of its lost forces, help cover holes in the border, and/or prepare for a breakthrough if the opportunity presents itself such as if Pokrovsk is captured. The truth will ultimately reveal itself, but for now, it’s best for Alt-Media to be skeptical.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/whats-be ... that-north
Little Andy is now the fact checker for the 'Alt media'...
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Ukraine - The Real Story Of High Disability Numbers
Like others here to follow Simplicius' substack Situation Reports on the war Ukraine. While at times lengthy and speculative they provide a good summary and dozens of sources.
Yesterday Simplicius tweeted :
SIMPLICIUS Ѱ @simpatico771 - 21:18 UTC · Oct 15, 2024
Did Zelensky's wife just admit AFU losses? 300k disabled forming 15-20% of total WIA would be 1.5M wounded. And 1.5M WIA forming 3:1 to 5:1 ratio to KIA should make for 300-500k KIA.
The quoted tweet is wrong though and deserves a correction.
(Image did not 'take'.)
Simplicius is quoting Olena Zelenska (Олена Зеленська @ZelenskaUA), the wife of the (former) president of Ukraine. Yesterday Zelenska indeed tweeted about disabilities in Ukraine but the quoted tweet, about 3 million Ukrainians with disabilities, has since been deleted. (It has also been quoted elsewhere, so we do know that it did existed.)
The cited 'news' of 3 million Ukrainian's with disabilities is not news. It had been officially announced on September 19 2023:
Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski - 23:59 UTC · Sep 19, 2023
At least 300,000 people, primarily military, became disabled during #RussiaUkraineWar: "During the year and a half of the full-scale invasion, the number of Ukrainians with disabilities increased by 300,000. Previously, 2.7 million people with disabilities lived in Ukraine, and now this figure has reached 3 million. This was announced by the Minister of Social Policy." https://life.pravda.com.ua/society/2023/09/19/256633/
Now, thirteen month later, the real number will be much higher. But the astonishing increase in the number of officially disabled people in Ukraine is only slightly related to the number of wounded Ukrainian soldiers. It is simply an expression of the corruption typical for the Ukrainian government and its wider society.
Even completely healthy men in Ukraine are eager to be declared disabled because it allows them to escape military service. To achieve that status huge amounts of bribes are paid to the relevant commissions and doctors.
A recent Starna piece took a deeper look into this (edited machine translations):
Corruption schemes in MSEC. Who receives millions of disability payments?
The number of corruption scandals surrounding Medical and Social Expert Commissions (MSEC) has significantly increased in Ukraine. When searching the apartments of medical experts, law enforcement officers find huge million-dollar stashes in foreign currency, and MSEC members with modest salaries are found to have expensive real estate, including abroad, and businesses registered for close relatives.
Strana found out how the MSEC's corruption schemes work.
There are three official degrees of disabilities in Ukraine. The commission decides, with the help of medical expert testimony, under which category a person falls. Bribes are paid for the various degrees. A temporary disability status is cheaper but has to be renewed every year, a permanent one is more expensive.
According to Strana's sources in the police, after the outbreak of the war, a peculiar price list for assigning disabilities to potentially mobilized men appeared in the MSEC.
The first group – from 8 to 10 thousand dollars, the second - 7 to 8 thousand, the third - from 5 thousand up. The amount of bribes varies depending on the region, and most of them were taken by MSEC members in large cities. Part of the bribes - from 500 to a thousand dollars - went to intermediaries who found those who wanted it.
The most popular diseases for fictitious assignment of disability groups were neuropsychiatric, brain and musculoskeletal diseases.
However fake assignments of disability groups cannot be carried out without the support of "related parties" - trusted doctors in specialized state clinics and diagnostic centers - radiologists, magnetic resonance imaging specialists. To assign a disability group, you need grounds in the form of a serious diagnosis with a medical history and conclusions of doctors. Therefore, the bribes had to be shared, but the main share, up to 70 percent of the amount, remained to MSEC members.
After the entry into force of the law on tougher mobilization, disability prices have risen sharply. And now disability "costs" from 10 to 20 thousand dollars.
There are two other categories where bribes are flowing.
People who have to care for a disabled relative are also excepted from military service. Men who have an elderly mother do seek to have her disability status increased to gain an exception for themselves:
The amount of bribes for granting the right to deferral to relatives of disabled people is slightly less. From 6 to 10 thousand dollars. The scheme of this kind is quite simple – for a bribe, a previously fully capable disabled person of the first or second group receives the status of a person in need of care. After that, the disabled person points to the person who is ready to provide him with care. Next, the MSEC issues a document on caring for a disabled person and, on the basis of such a document, the man receives a deferral in the mobilization office
The huge increase of the number of Ukrainians with disability status is thus not a consequence of people wounded due to the war. Their number probably does not exceed the number of disabled people who die over the years. The reason for the increase is the systemic corruption in Ukraine which can seemingly be found in any government office. There is also corruption involved in gaining such lucrative government positions.
The 300,000+ additionally disabled may well have paid an average of $7,500 to gain that status. This sums up to $2.25 billion that have been distributed within the system.
In general, we are talking about huge corruption flows in the tens of millions of dollars received by corrupt officials of MSEC, which are structurally part of the system of the Ministry of Security of Ukraine.
According to the source of Strana in the MSEC, part of this money is transferred by the heads of commissions to their superiors-functionaries of the Ministry of Health.
Therefore, the amount of bribes for positions in the MEC after the war also went through the roof - from 20 thousand dollars for a member of the commission to 100 thousand dollars for the post of head of the inter-district MEC.
The disabilities numbers, which Simplicius is using to estimate the number of Ukrainian soldiers wounded in the war, do tell a story. But it is only tangentially related to the number of people who really get wounded.
Posted by b on October 16, 2024 at 10:48 UTC | Permalink
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/u ... .html#more
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Jihadi Julian does not believe in victory
Jihadi Julian did not appreciate the "Peremoga plan".
"I listened to Zelensky's victory plan... Oh, my God.
"There will be no accession to NATO, no permission to strike deep into Russia with Western weapons, no joint air defense against Russian aviation. And there is no longer any talk of completely liberating the country. There are no words."
Judging by Repke's disappointment, he expected something different, but when he listened, an abyss of chatter divorced from reality opened up before him.
However, Repke has long been a treasonist about what is happening in Ukraine, since in 2022 and 2023 he expected "the military and economic defeat of Russia", but reality hit him on the head with a heavy blow.
As a result, he has already lived to see accusations that he works for the Kremlin, although he has been consistently pushing against the Russian Federation for more than 10 years. Both in Syria and in Ukraine.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9443197.html
The problem of the extra zero
Just one extra zero and the topic of contract service has taken on a new meaning.
In fact, it's a common mistake of designer girls.
Monthly payments across the country for SVO participants are around 210,000 (plus there are regional bonuses).
Now only the signing bonus is growing, which fluctuates between 1 and 2 million rubles across the country + in some regions they also give a plot of land on top, like in Sevastopol and Crimea.
Well, the social package for families is gradually expanding due to various benefits, loan write-offs, etc. Foreigners can also get citizenship on an accelerated basis.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9444330.html
Google Translator
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Peace is just around the corner...
Zelensky's victory plan. Nationalists for peace - or not? The paradox of Ukrainian liberal doomers. No diplomacy, yes war. My own self criticism
Events in Ukraine
Oct 17, 2024
Yesterday, Zelensky finally unveiled his mighty ‘victory plan’ to the Ukrainian public. To begin with, there was nothing new - entry to NATO and more military aid being the main point. Second, a few questions were raised by the fact that it was presented to the Ukrainian public quite some time after being triumphantly (and fruitlessly) presented to Ukraine’s ‘western partners’. And even then, several points are still ‘too secret’ to speak about. And do I even have to talk about his obsessive references to Ukraine’s mineral riches and its importance for western investors?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for additional support for Ukraine's defense and an invitation to join NATO during a Wednesday address in Kyiv.
So what is the meaning of this plan? And all the other ‘peace ‘plans’, or promises, or whatever they are, which crowd up western media nowadays. And what about other pearls from Zelensky like his October 9 statement that the battlefield ‘creates an opportunity’ to bring an end to the war in 2025?
You don’t have to be a keen follower of the war in Ukraine to be struck with a sense of déjà vu. There certainly isn’t only one obvious interpretation of all these statements, rumors, and media columns. I’m going to present several possible interpretations, then take stock at the end.
Ukrainian society wants peace?
When I say ‘society’, I don’t mean the majority of Ukrainians. Their opinion has never meant much anyway. What I mean by this - and this is also what is meant when ‘Ukrainian society’ and its opinions is mentioned in western or Ukrainian media - is that minority of society, numbering around 20-30%, which has committed its life to nationalist political or military organizations. There are broadly two groups here.
First, nationalists who fight in the frontlines and are generally affiliated in some way to the Azov movement, the Right Sector network, and other complex paramilitary/parapolitical entities. Second, the liberal NGO nationalists who generally stay far from the war, often called Sorosites or, more recently, ‘the new nobility'. Both have their relationships with US funding/training networks, which Moss Robeson covers fantastically on his substack.
If you’ve been following my telegram roundups, you will have read the Ukrainian militarists complaining about how gay, draft-evading western-funded NGO liberals/Zelensky are intent on prosecuting the war until the last Ukrainian patriot. Tales of the IV Reich, a telegram run by an Azov sergeant, is particularly keen on this line of thought - that the US democrats (he is himself pro-Trump) are pushing Ukraine into an endless war that is ruining its demographic potential forever.
There’s been no shortage of similar voices lately as well. Major Kyryllo Veres is a quite well-known officer in the K2 Battalion - the second line mechanized battalion of the 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade. He is often interviewed by various media, and is respected by just about all militarists.
I already wrote how at the start of this year, Veres was harshly criticized by the state-run ‘Centre for the Prevention of Disinformation’ (cue 1984 joke), because Veres stated in an interview that Zelensky’s slogan of the 1991 borders or bust was untenable. In that conflict, he was supported by Tales of the IV Reich.
Anyway, Veres has done it again. In an October 10 interview, Veres had this to say:
I don’t think we have the potential to get to the borders of ‘91. If we had that, why are we losing Vuhledar and still fighting around Bakhmut? I don't even think about the borders of '91. I'm thinking about how not to lose the positions I have now. We were heading to the borders in 2023, 2024, in three months it will be 2025, and we're still moving toward the borders of '91 – only in the opposite direction. Maybe it's time to stop fucking up? We need to stand our ground, and only then can we talk about moving forward. Right now, we're stepping backwards in giant strides. What kind of fucking forward are we talking about? Who is saying this? Who believes in this? It’s some kind of surrealism.
When asked about the Chinese/Brazilian peace plans (freezing the frontline as is) and whether Ukrainians would accept such an unsatisfactory outcome, he replied:
It’s one thing to talk out your ass, it’s another to head to a trench and shoot a Russian
On that topic, I’ll note that in April of this year Tales of the IV Reich, Veres’ ally, in fact posted in favour of Ukraine working together with China to end the war instead of the destructive US:
The war can only end with an agreement between both sides, with the involvement of guarantees from the world's powerful nations. I’ve already written hundreds of times, and I’ll write it again: one of our weaknesses in this war is the lack of adequate relations with China. It is a hegemon of global development and a powerful economy, which, overall since 1991, and particularly since 2014, has been largely ignored. Unfortunately, I have an idea why this has happened. Because someone decided that Ukraine’s national idea is to look up to the same Russians who live on the other side of the ocean.
Veres also added that if his unit doesn’t get a 3-4 month rest, they won’t be able to continue fighting. I’ve written about the lack of rotations and its relation to the desertion crisis at length here. In short, all the motivated nationalists have been/are being used up in war, and the mobilized replacements mutiny rather than fight.
Don’t misunderstand me - Veres is no pacifist. In an interview from a few days later, he called on civilians to ‘take off their rose-tinted glasses’ and get ready for war and mobilization. He supports a stronger defense pose, rather than any ‘capitulation of Ukrainian interests’ (read: any formal compromises with the Russian Federation):
I’m not in favour of giving anything up - we need to fight. But we need to take another approach.
He also had plenty of praise for the military effectiveness of the Russian forces he faces at the frontline, and dismissed the stereotypes of incompetent Russian meat storms. Instead, he pointed out that Ukraine hasn’t taken back any territory from Russia, and that Ukraine itself suffers major losses - ‘so what, are we idiots too?’ This, by the way, is quite a common topic for serving nationalists in interviews - they are quite fed up with the liberal/Zelensky media lines about incompetent Russian soldiers.
Serhii Krivonos, an ex-general who is often interviewed by liberal-nationalist media, also wasn’t optimistic. In an October 8 interview, he described the situation at the front for AFU soldiers as ‘total shit’:"We need to understand that only a miracle can save Ukraine at this stage if we don't draw real conclusions from the situation and change our attitude toward what we have in the country," said Krivonos.
“The Russian army is actively forming assault units, and in many areas, due to these assault units, which are being transferred from other parts, they are combining such groups and, clearly understanding where the weak spots are, trying to break through the dam called the Ukrainian army, like melting water.
…
What the authorities are saying and what's happening on the front lines are completely different – this has been going on for more than a day, more than a month, but now the situation has reached the point where it will soon be very difficult to fight because, as the infantrymen themselves said, infantry is starting to die out as a branch of the military because there is no one to fight, nothing to fight with, and nowhere to fight."
There is clearly sentiment in the army in favor of solidly assuming the defensive. And the liberal nationalists have also been echoing them. This, despite the fact that this group often tend to actually be more rigidly militaristic than the serving nationalists themselves - largely because the liberals are often far from the frontlines.
Ostap Drozdov, for instance, is a typical example of the western Ukrainain ‘patriotic intelligentsia’. He gave an October 13 interview titled ‘this is the dying agony of the system of coercion’, responding partly to the mass mobilization activities conducted, in part, at ‘patriotic’ music concerts.
The interviewer also asked Drozdov about the meaning of his recent facebook post describing in detail the massive economic, ecological, and demographic losses Ukraine has suffered in the war. Drozdov answered that there was no need to explain it, the figures stood for themselves:
By continuing this war, it’s as if Ukraine were suicidal, some kind of fata morgana
Complications
Unfortunately, I don’t think peace has much chances at the moment. Neither the standard frontline militarists nor the liberal nationalists have any interest in actually entertaining any political compromises with Russia - removing NATO-membership as a goal in the constitution, for instance. Drozdov and other nationalist doomers blame Ukraine’s suicidal course on ‘the stupid masses’, who ‘have no consciousness’ and are naturally ‘far from being European’.
This is an increasingly common refrain nowadays, particularly among Poroshenkites for whom the stupid Russian-speaking Jew Zelensky is the cause of the war and all other problems. But it ignores the fact that most Ukrainians have never had much impact on politics - their main preoccupation has always been survival in a darwinian neoliberal society. It is the nationalist minority which has taken decisions in the country.
The majority of the country voted for Zelensky in 2019 to bring an end to the war - and once the nationalists vetoed his tentative steps towards reconciliation with Russia, the weak-willed Zelensky went along with the minority. But as usual, the liberals and nationalists are constructing their favorite myth of how they were betrayed by the stupid masses who voted in a pro-Russian populist - just like what happened in 1917-1920 (in fact, nationalists use this optic to explain just about everything in Ukrainian history).
Problems from the first White House
Ukraine’s presidential administration
But anyway, onto everyone’s favorite Zelensky. As you should be able to tell from this substack, he has no shortage of enemies in Ukraine - a list which only grows as the war ends. His callous extortion of Ukraine’s business class makes any sort of peacetime semi-democracy particularly dangerous. It is rather obvious that any end to the war and political democratization would be bad news for the president.
In response to the latest statement in late September from Kamala Harris that ‘the US won’t decide anything without Ukraine’s input’, Tales of the IV Reich had this to say:
In order for issues to be resolved with Ukraine's participation, elections are needed, where the citizens of Ukraine can respond to the devastating policies of the government, during which an unknown number of thousands of citizens have died, hundreds of thousands have been injured, tens of thousands are in captivity suffering daily torture, several million have emigrated permanently, and 25% of the country is occupied by foreign troops with no hint of return. Earlier, I believed that elections were unnecessary and that the current president, as one of the culprits of the tragedy, should bear personal responsibility for what is happening and thus should finish it himself. However, my hopes and desire to see humanity in those who lost it long ago are fading. There is no hint of a military junta coming to power, as the likely candidates for that role would only add more madness with watermelons in Foros. The only option left is democratic elections, where the citizens of Ukraine can voice their opinions. I think that, through conditional China and India, it would be possible to agree on some kind of one-week ceasefire regime for such a parade of justice, but who would even want that?
He gets right to the core of the idiocy of western media statements about ‘Ukrainian agency’. No ‘country’ really has agency - its leaders do, different political groups might (Hezbollah in Lebanon, for instance), but ‘the people’ as a whole never exists. This is particularly so in Ukraine, where the majority of the population are crammed into minibuses kicking and screaming by mobilization officers with automatic weapons.
Also note his ridicule for the idea of a military junta coming to power. People often ask me how likely this is, and there was even a forbes article recently about the possibility of a nationalist coup in response to any potential peace overtures by Zelensky. I’ve seen several polls on this topic on nationalist telegrams, with the majority of responses ridiculing the very question, and choosing the option of leaving the country or doing nothing. Soldiers are either deserting, essentially enslaved by the army, and if they’re nationalists, they know that any coup would simply be ideal for their Russian enemy at the frontline.
Furthermore, as this article should show, it seems to me that Zelensky is a great deal more interested in continuing the war than the nationalists themselves. Don’t forget that before the war, Ukraine’s nationalists ridiculed him as a treacherous crypto-Russian Jew. Nowadays, you can tell what they’re thinking at the back of their mind - you’re just continuing this war to get rid of us, your most powerful political opponents.
The other white house
You’ll notice I haven’t said anything about the upcoming US elections - the elephant in the room in any discussion of the war in Ukraine.
I have little confidence that the Americans are interested in an end to the war - both parties. I don’t put much stock in the fact that the NYT or other demparty-adjacent publications put out material criticizing Zelensky and proposing some kind of ‘German solution’, where the remaining sections of Ukraine would join NATO and the parts controlled by Russia would be abandoned.
This ignores an even more important elephant in the room - Russia. Putin entered Ukraine because he didn’t want the country in NATO or integrated with it in any way. So why on earth would Russia agree to Ukraine joining NATO, when Russia is winning on the frontlines?
I don’t think you have to be a genius to imagine other difficult aspects of such genius ‘peace plans’. For instance, the fact that any (quite likely, and probably ceaseless) Russian attack on the NATO part of Ukraine would activate article 5, creating the Russia-NATO war that all NATO leaders have been very open about wanting to avoid.
So I don’t see such publications as anything other than the pacification of a war-weary western public.
As for Trump - he was president before, and it was under him that the US first began sending lethal weapons to Ukraine. Mike Pompeo, supposedly one of Trump’s favorites, recently penned a very ‘pro-Ukraine’ think-piece, praised by liberal nationalist Ukrainian media in a subsequent English language interview on the topic. Pompeo raged at insufficient US military aid to Ukraine. And beyond that, Trump is older than he was before, and even then he was neither able, nor, it seems to me, particularly willing to reverse the collective desire of the US foreign policy establishment.
Is he really going to be willing to ‘capitulate to Putin’ by excluding Ukraine from any potential partnership or entry into NATO? With republicans and democrats alike yelling at him about ‘a bigger show of US weakness than Afghanistan’? I doubt it.
Blast to the past
Let me do something quite embarrassing - recall my first article on this substack, back in January 20, 2022.
Blinken wants Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements - notes on the US Secretary of State's visit to Kiev
Events in Ukraine
January 19, 2022
Blinken wants Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements - notes on the US Secretary of State's visit to Kiev
Today US secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived in Kiev to meet with the government. The main topic of discussions was the implementation of the Minsk Agreements for the regulation of the conflict in Donbass, particularly the political aspects of said agreements.
Read full story
Yes, that’s right - peace is right around the corner! I was stuck in Kiev eagerly believing this wonderful idea right until about February 21 of that year, when I realized something else was around the corner.
I wasn’t alone - I got my ideas from the ‘pro-Russian’ social democrats like Dmitry Dzhangirov (soon after violently disappeared, and probably misinterpreted by myself back then anyway) and strana.ua. We all wanted to hope that the US would ‘force Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements to restore relations with Russia’. And occasional statements by US representatives, along with hysteria among Ukrainian nationalists that ‘the west is forcing us to capitulate’, seemed to confirm this hope.
The fact is, that we underestimated US agency. I agree with Adam Tooze’s recent piece - the US isn’t powerless in the face of Israeli or Ukrainian agency, but is instead happy to use them in its geopolitical ends.
Coda
I don’t see the west collapsing economically any time soon because of weapons shipments to Ukraine. It can certainly send enough to slow down movement at the frontline. And both parties in the US are committed to maintaining US global power. Ukraine may not be a particularly winning piece, but it’s one of the few they have in conditions of hegemonic crisis.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s liberal nationalists, while increasingly pessimistic, are hardly enthusiastic for self-criticism. And why would they, given that any real self-criticism would lead them to contemplate the cosmic level of destruction they have inflicted on their country through their selfish idealism?
And Ukraine’s military nationalists, while contemptuous of Zelensky’s idiotic military ‘counter-offensives’ and the like, are also hardly peace doves. They want to dig in for the long run and mobilize all society, kicking and screaming.
Given all this, I have to conclude that the only real variable that plays a role in this war, is, surprise, the war itself. It was the Russian/separatist victories at Debaltseve and Ilovaisk in late 2014/early 2015 that forced Ukraine to sign the Minsk agreements. After deadlock in the Minsk process and failure in US-Russian relations, it was Russia’s launching of its new military intervention in February 2022 that once again transformed the situation.
And in future, too, politics and diplomacy will play second fiddle to events on the frontline. And not just events, but the broader processes I describe in posts like this: military organizational issues and degradation, the dramatic difference in motivation and training between forcibly-mobilized troops and patriotic volunteers, and so on.
Let’s assume that western ‘peace plan’ editorials and Zelensky’s schizophrenic rhetoric are psyops to prepare the public for a new ‘counter-offensive’. The latter always seem to happen right after a spate of the former.
https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... the-corner
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V
Imposing the plan
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/18/2024
After briefly presenting his Victory Plan at the seat of Ukraine’s national sovereignty, the Verkhovna Rada, Volodymyr Zelensky has continued his tour to try to win the support of the people and institutions that really matter – his foreign partners. In Brussels, the Ukrainian president sought to curry favour with one of his main suppliers, the current support of the Ukrainian state, the European Union, whose Parliament once again welcomed him as a hero. “The last time you were here,” wrote Roberta Metsola, “I promised you our unwavering support on your country’s path to EU membership. Today I am proud to welcome you to the House of European Democracy as the leader of a candidate country for EU membership.” “Ukraine is Europe,” she said, deliberately confusing the continent with the political bloc. However, with EU entry long understood as a decision that has been made and that it is simply a matter of time, Zelensky's speech did not focus on the benefits of the Union or the enormous benefit that will be obtained by admitting Ukraine into the European family , but on the continuation of his campaign to formalize the Victory Plan as a possible way out of the war. Kiev is acting in the same way that in the last decade it has managed to institutionalize the nationalist discourse, previously only characteristic of a part of the country, as the only possible national discourse. Ukraine is working to achieve the same objective and to make its plan - in reality a wish list that its allies must help it to fulfill and not a roadmap to achieve them - appear as a path to a just peace .
“We are ready to put the Victory Plan on the table for European leaders and we count on them to support it,” Zelensky wrote yesterday in a long thread in which he details the meaning of his proposal much more in depth than he did the day before before the deputies of his country. “Ukraine is ready for real diplomacy. But to achieve it, it must be strong,” added the Ukrainian president, who, continuing with euphemisms such as a just peace, which must be just for the population under his control and not for those who looked to Russia for protection against Ukrainian aggression, seems to understand true diplomacy as that in which he is able to dictate the terms and does not have to negotiate with the other party.
Here, too, there is a clear continuity with the precedents of this war. During the years of the Donbass war, Ukraine always prioritized the Normandy Format, in which it negotiated only with Russia and not with Donetsk and Luhansk, at that time the side that Kiev was facing militarily. In the spring of 2022, Kiev repeated the modus operandi of delaying negotiations as long as it was able to obtain concessions - such as the Russian withdrawal from northern Ukraine - until, having managed to gain time for its allies to send sufficient war material, it withdrew from negotiations in which concessions were demanded of it. Since then, Kiev has made it clear that it will only negotiate in a position of strength and without considering unacceptable concessions. The precedent of the peace agreements that were supposed to end the Donbass conflict is useful to understand what kind of conditions Ukraine is not willing to accept.
Ukraine's well-known refusal to implement the Minsk roadmap, which did not require territorial concessions or the renunciation of membership in political or military blocs in order to regain territory, may indicate Ukraine's low tolerance for true diplomacy , where negotiations are necessary and all parties are aware that they will have to make concessions. This is precisely what Ukraine is trying to avoid by means of the current plan, which requires its partners to take the war to Russia, an act that can only be understood as an escalation, in the name of peace.
Kiev’s discursive game in the coming months will thus be based on information about the preparations for the next peace summit and calls to end the war, mixed with demands for a greater and faster delivery of weapons in order to be able to intensify the bombings against Russian territory or strategic places such as Crimea, whose population the Ukrainian president has not addressed at any time during his presentation of the Victory Plan . Projection exercises such as the statement that Ukrainian soldiers “need more strength because Putin is preparing his reinforcements to continue the war, not to end it” will occur more often as Zelensky is preparing his reinforcements to continue the war, not to end it.
“Putin simply has to see that his geopolitical calculations are not working,” added Zelensky, whose geopolitical calculations are even further from reality than those of the Russian president. While it is currently a pipe dream to expect Ukraine to abandon the four regions that Russia has recognized as its own (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson) as well as Crimea, which has been Russian since 2014, it is much less feasible for Ukraine to achieve its goals: territorial integrity according to its 1991 borders, NATO membership and a non-nuclear deterrent package , i.e. Western missiles on its territory.
Apparently satisfied with Zelensky’s Victory Plan , the still EU chief diplomat insisted yesterday that the war “is existential” and called on member states to continue supporting Ukraine, for whom winning peace and war “have to go hand in hand.” That is exactly the reaction Ukraine hopes to get from its partners, although, to the chagrin of Zelensky and Ermak, it is being lacking even despite the subtext of the proposal. Ukraine demands a lot from its allies, but also wants to show that it offers them important compensations. Kiev demands an immediate invitation to NATO accession that “would not only symbolize NATO, but also show the inevitability of Ukraine’s European integration and the irreversible path to democracy in the country.” "The invitation will strengthen our diplomatic position and will be one of the main arguments for stopping the war," Zelensky said yesterday, presenting the invitation - not even the entry itself - to the Alliance as the element that will magically turn the war around in the same way that the Leopard tanks were going to break through the Zaporozhye front.
The Ukrainian president included a thinly veiled nuclear threat, saying that “either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons or Ukraine will be in NATO. NATO countries are not at war today. All people are alive in NATO countries. And that is why we chose NATO over nuclear weapons.” Ukraine ratified the nuclear non-proliferation treaty in the 1990s, but has not forgotten this nuclear aspiration. This is not the first time that Zelensky has used the nuclear issue as a threat, an argument he already put forward in 2021 and which was one of the reasons for the rise of political tensions.
Aware of the cost of maintaining the Ukrainian state and armed forces for its partners, with a certain tone of desperation as the situation worsens on the front and Russia does not give in economically or militarily as kyiv would wish, and fearful that war fatigue will take its toll on the former comedian's most important audience, Western leaders, kyiv has seen the need to offer something in return. Peace through force does not refer only to the current war, but Ukraine intends to extend it into the future, thereby consolidating itself as a necessary external border where the West cannot afford not to have a significant presence that will bring them benefits. In exchange for support, Zelensky presents Ukraine as practically a NATO military base, the Western springboard against Russia that Moscow has denounced in the last decade that the country was becoming. The path had already begun, but the Russian invasion has accelerated it, although not as much as Zelensky would like.
“Ukraine has critical resources worth trillions of dollars, and Russia wants to seize them. These include titanium, uranium, lithium, graphite, manganese and others. These resources must not fall into the hands of Russia or its allies,” the Ukrainian president said, adding that “Ukraine proposes a special agreement with key partners – the EU, the US and our mutual global partners – to protect Ukraine’s critical resources, make joint investments and direct the relevant economic potential towards our shared growth.” One does not need to read between the lines to see in the proposal a practically colonial relationship in which Ukraine presents itself as a supplier of soldiers to “free up US forces to do more in their priority regions, especially in the Indo-Pacific” and raw materials to profit from.
“It is realistic to maintain positions on the front inside Ukrainian territory and at the same time bring the war back to Russia, so that the Russians can feel what war is and start to hate Putin for it,” Zelensky said, even though Ukraine’s setbacks contradict his appeal for peace through war, two aspects as compatible as the colonial relationship that his approaches present with the discourse of the national liberation war or the references to democracy with the cancellation of elections or a purely aesthetic use of Parliament.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/18/30768/
Google Translator
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 17 October 2024)
— Units of the North group of forces in the Liptsov and Volchansk directions inflicted losses on the formations of the 57th motorized infantry , 92nd airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 125th territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Liptsy, Russkaya Lozovaya and Volchanskiye Khutor in the Kharkiv region.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 45 servicemen and three 122-mm howitzers D-30 . A warehouse of unmanned aerial vehicles and a field ammunition depot were destroyed. — Units of the West
group of forces took up more advantageous lines and positions. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 3rd Tank , 43rd , 67th , 77th , 116th Mechanized , 3rd Assault Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 110th Territorial Defense Brigade and the 27th National Guard Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Kupyansk, Petrovpavlivka, Novoosinovo, Kruglyakovka, Lozovaya, Pershotravnevoe, Druzhelyubovka in the Kharkiv region, Novosadove and Torskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy lost over 460 servicemen, four pickup trucks, a 105-mm L-119 gun made in Great Britain, a 122-mm D-30 howitzer, as well as an M113 armored personnel carrier , a 155-mm M198 howitzer and a 105-mm M119 gun made in the USA . The Anklav-N electronic warfare station and six field ammunition depots were destroyed. — As a result of active actions by units of the Southern Group of Forces, the settlement of Maksimilyanovka in the Donetsk People's Republic was liberated . The formations of the 24th , 30th , 54th , 93rd Mechanized , 59th Motorized Infantry , 143rd , 144th Infantry , 46th Airmobile , 79th Airborne Assault Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 116th Territorial Defense Brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Serebryanka, Seversk, Orekhovo-Vasilievka, Stupochki, Predtechino, Belaya Gora, Kurakhovo, Ilyinka and Katerinovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to 965 servicemen, a 155-mm howitzer M777 made in the USA and two 122-mm howitzers D-30 . The electronic warfare station "Anklav-N" and four ammunition depots were destroyed .
- Units of the "Center" group of forces continued to advance into the depths of the enemy's defenses. The manpower and equipment of the 32nd , 33rd , 151st Mechanized , 142nd , 152nd Infantry , 25th Airborne , 95th Airborne Assault Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 119th Territorial Defense Brigade and the 2nd National Guard Brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Dzerzhinsk, Shcherbinovka, Nikolaevka, Dimitrov, Krasnoarmeysk, Selidovo, Tsukurino and Berestki of the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy lost up to 530 servicemen, four pickup trucks, two 152-mm howitzers "Msta-B" and two 122-mm howitzers D-30 . - Units of the "East" force grouping improved their tactical position. Defeated the formations of the 72nd Mechanized, 58th Motorized Infantry Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 127th and 241st Territorial Defense Brigades in the areas of the settlements of Storozhovoe, Dobrovolye, Novoukrainka of the Donetsk People's Republic and Temirovka of the Zaporizhia region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 105 servicemen, an M113 armored personnel carrier made in the USA, four vehicles and a 155-mm self-propelled artillery mount "Caesar" made in France. - Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of the 31st, 117th Mechanized, 141st Infantry Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 121st and 124th Territorial Defense Brigades in the areas of the settlements of Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, Pavlovka of the Zaporizhia region, Osokorovka and Kamyshany of the Kherson region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 55 servicemen, six vehicles, a 152-mm Giatsint-B gun and a 152-mm D-20 gun . A field ammunition depot and wo warehouses with military-technical property.
- Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile troops and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted damage on energy infrastructure facilities that ensured the operation of enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in the 141st district.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
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The Grand Poobah's Not-So-Grand Victory Ploy Unveiled
Simplicius
Oct 17, 2024
<snip>
(We've covered this stuff pretty well but this is interesting:)
The fourth point is the most ominous by far. Here it is again: (Video at link.)
In fact, we can go out on a limb and say this point is the whole meat and potatoes—the very reason for the existence not only of all other points, but of the war itself. Isn’t it so interesting Zelensky unveils this key linchpin only a day or two after the announcement of Ukraine’s largest titanium production being sold off for pennies on the dollar?
The most ominous part of it is Zelensky’s emphasis on the fact that the agreement has a guardedly “secret” component to be shared only with the top few allies, which he appears to tie into the allies’ military protection of their resource ‘investments’. What more can one say? This is nothing other than Zelensky’s pimping out of his country’s economic treasures and future in order to desperately tie NATO militarily to Ukraine’s hip. This is just the continuation of the same old plan, except this time via outright bribery: create massive monetary incentive to obligate NATO into sending boots on ground to confront Russia and save Ukraine by virtue or deterrence of WWIII. It’s dangling trillions before their noses to entice their help, with the alluded-to most ‘secret’ component of the deal likely having to do with the sheer preferential nature of the disaster capitalism extraction and economic shock therapy in one.
It’s just more of what we already knew, that the Ukrainian game is all about the Western crony elite positioning themselves to pillage Ukraine’s resources and industries. For instance, most missed this excerpt from ex-CIA chief Pompeo’s recent prank-call with Russian Vovan and Lexus posing as Poroshenko. In the private call he describes how he got his own comfy sinecure on a big Ukrainian enterprise: (Video at link.)
Isn’t it interesting how the ex-head of the CIA now runs a bank of all things, and that bank is buying up Ukrainian enterprises? Also interesting it happens to be a telecom, just like Vodafone owned by the Azerbaijani oligarch who just bought up the remainder of Ukraine’s titanium industry. Virtually every deep state elite involved in the Ukraine debacle has got their fingers in the jar.
<snip>
(Much more at link.)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the ... nd-victory
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Larry On "Mixed Reviews"...
... of Ze's "Victory Plan", LOL))
Read the whole thing at Larry's blog.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/10 ... views.html
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Zelensky’s Unrealistic “Victory Plan” Is Driven By One Of Two Ulterior Motives
Andrew Korybko
Oct 17, 2024
He’s either hinting at what he wants after “escalating to de-escalate” in the near future or sowing the seeds for a “stab-in-the-back” theory.
Zelensky finally presented the first five parts of his much-ballyhooed “Victory Plan” to the Rada on Wednesday while still keeping three of them secret per his own admission. Readers can review his full speech here and Reuters’ concise summary here. Upon doing either, they’ll see that it’s unrealistic due to Ukraine demanding: an invitation to join NATO; the joint interception of Russian missiles; and hosting “a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package” on its soil, among several other demands.
All three are non-starters for NATO since the bloc doesn’t want to get directly involved in this proxy war, which its comparatively more pragmatic policymakers who still call the shots fear could easily spiral out of control into World War III, hence why nothing of the sort has happened yet. That’s not to say that their hawkish rivals stand no chance of changing that, and some are speculatively working behind their governments’ backs to this end, but just that Zelensky won’t get what he wants unless that happens.
The abovementioned calculations will likely remain constant seeing as how they’ve been in place for over two and a half years so far, which he’s keenly aware of, thus raising the question of what he sought to achieve by making such demands from his partners that have already been rejected. The argument can be made that he was driven by one of two ulterior motives: hint at what he wants after possibly “escalating to de-escalate” in the near future or sow the seeds for a “stab-in-the-back” theory.
Regarding the first, this could take the form of a nuclear provocation and/or attacking Belarus, while the second was coincidentally lent credence two days prior to Zelensky’s speech by the Royal United Services Institute in an article about “The Impending Betrayal of Ukraine”. These scenarios could be averted if the G7 agrees to comply with at least some of his military demands in exchange for being allowed to extract Ukraine’s critical mineral riches like one of the points of his “Victory Plan” strongly suggests.
That implied proposal builds upon what he promised the G7 in May 2022, which was analyzed here at the time and followed up on in February 2024 here, the point being that there’s a precedent for him offering up his country for sale in exchange for getting what he wants. If these critical mineral riches don’t tempt the West into fulfilling at least part of his “Victory Plan”, and it was explained above why they probably won’t, then he’ll likely resort to either of the two backup plans that were discussed.
The takeaway from what he just revealed is that ulterior motives are clearly at play since his main demands have already been rejected. Even the innuendo that Ukraine’s critical mineral riches could be swapped for supposedly game-changing military support might not get the West to reconsider since it fears an uncontrollable escalation sequence with nuclear-armed Russia. That being the case, observers should expect him to soon “escalate to de-escalate” or pin the blame for Ukraine’s defeat on the West.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/zelensky ... ctory-plan
(First the one, then the other.)
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Stolen fortunes of Ukrainian immigrants. Convergence of the Bandera cult and CIA cut-outs. Prelude to a feud in NYC's "Little Ukraine."
Moss Robeson
Oct 09, 2024
Twenty years ago, Mykola Bojczuk, a wealthy Ukrainian nationalist, passed away in a nursing home in Bridgewater, New Jersey, at which point his Russian-speaking son from the Soviet Union stood to inherit almost all of his estate. But when Stefan Bojczuk went to probate his father’s will from 1982, he discovered that “someone else had beaten him to the Somerset County Surrogate's Office.”
The Ukrainian American Freedom Foundation (UAFF), an important front group for the OUN-B, or “Banderite” faction of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, had submitted another will from 2002, which Bojczuk barely managed to sign in the aftermath of a stroke, while also “suffering from very significant dementia.”
At the end of the day, Stefan Bojczuk won in court, but I’m reminded of a sensational anonymous complaint, alleging “ Large Scare Fraudulent Financial Activities ,” that was submitted to the New York State Attorney General’s office in 2019 about the OUN-B network, and the UAFF in particular, which owns 40% of the Banderite headquarters building in Kyiv.
In my recent documentary, “Big Trouble in Little Ukraine,” there is a moment when Walter Zaryckyj, the UAFF president since 2018, told Banderite youth in 1989 Canada, “our wealth is being passed over there [to the Soviet Union] because a lot of our old folks don’t write out wills.” Over a decade after the USSR collapsed, it seems the Banderites were still nervous about ex-Soviet citizens inheriting “our wealth.” “It’s as if we don’t have enough lawyers,” joked Zaryckyj, “including my friends, like Asha.” That was apparently a reference to Askold Lozynskyj, an important OUN-B member in the United States. According to the 2019 complaint,
For the record: Askold Lozynskyj made his money by taking advantage of Ukrainian organizations, but mainly from their members — Ukrainian immigrants that couldn’t speak and/or write English. Those people trusted him with everything. … Ukrainian immigrants, who didn’t have family and didn’t understand the English language, went to him for advice and procedures on how to prepare a will in order that after their passing, the building/assets that they owned would go to Ukrainian Organizations and/or churches. Yet somehow, after their death, those assets became properties of Askold Lozynskyj, Esq. That is how he started making money.
So it appears that the Bojczuk case was far from an isolated incident.
According to an internal OUN-B document from 2007 by Myron Swidersky (1925-2022), the vice president of the UAFF in the early-to-mid 2000s, Mykola Bojczuk was a young entrepreneur in 1940s western Ukraine, who worked in the economic sector of OUN-B and training camps for its Ukrainian Insurgent Army. After the war, in American-occupied Germany, Bojczuk was reportedly “further involved in the work of the economic sector, organizing an organizational enterprise.” This might have been the “luggage factory whose profits enabled him to bring a substantial nest egg to the United States in 1949.”
“The case of the last will of Mykola Bojczuk (its beginnings and final results) - Analysis” by Myron Swidersky (2007)
In 1941, before the Nazis invaded the Soviet Union, Bojczuk is said to have gone into hiding from Soviet authorities that took over western Ukraine in 1939. They deported his wife and young son, Stefan, to Kazakhstan. As told by one article, “When the Germans invaded later that year, Bojczuk stayed behind and continued making money.” He fled westward in 1944, “one step behind the retreating Germans and ahead of the Red Army.” Bojczuk was only reunited with his son in 1994, over fifty years after they last saw each other. In the meantime, Mykola built a hotel, purchased a valuable tract of land, and married an American woman who owned a stone yard—all in New Jersey. By the 21st century, he was thought to be worth 30 million dollars. And maybe 40 million, according to Swidersky.
During the Cold War, Bojczuk was reportedly a financial supporter of the Banderites. For example, he paid for at least one of their trips to Taiwan for a conference of the “Anti-Communist League.” It’s unclear if this was the Asian People’s Anti-Communist League (APACL), which was partnered with the Banderites’ Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations (ABN), or the World Anti-Communist League (WACL), in which the ABN represented the “captive nations” of the Soviet Union. According to the Swidersky report, Bojczuk’s Days Inn hotel also hosted Banderite meetings, including the 1982 World Congress of the “Ukrainian Liberation Front,” the international coordinating body of OUN-B front groups.
It was in 1982 that Mykola Bojczuk signed his original will, according to which his wife would inherit almost everything upon his death. It did not stipulate what would happen if she died before him. Because Bojczuk never officially adopted his two step-children, that meant almost everything would go to his only biological child in the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic. The scrivener of the will said that he warned Bojczuk about this possibility, who responded, “no, no, no, he’s a communist.” But they never changed a thing. It was said that Stefan Bojczuk “grew up to be the head electrician at a large Soviet cotton mill” in Kazakhstan. In 1994, he “arrived unannounced” in Bridgewater. If at first Mykola Bojczuk declined to change his will out of procrastination or stubbornness, later it might have been because he reconnected with son, who made him a grandfather, and eventually took over the Days Inn hotel. Stefan’s step-sister alleged that Mykola was afraid of him.
The former Days Inn on U.S. Route 22 in Bridgewater, NJ (2012 Google Street View)
In any case, Mykola Bojczuk’s second wife died in September 2001. He was 88 years old. In the coming months, he “suffered a series of debilitating strokes,” after which Stefan successfully applied for guardianship, defeating his step-siblings in court. A pair of physicians who examined Mykola at a nursing home in Bridgewater submitted affidavits to the court that he was “mentally incompetent.”
On March 22, 2002, a Ukrainian American neurologist examined Mykola, and found him to be “suffering from very significant dementia.” According to him, “Mr. Bojczuk is not oriented to place or time. He does not know where he is. He did not know such obvious things as the identify of the President that he could not pass any mini mental examination.” Three days later, a psychiatrist agreed that the patient was “not oriented to day, date or place. His higher cognitive functions and memory are impaired. His judgement and insight are impaired.”
Another three days later, and Mykola Bojczuk received a visit from Peter Paluch, the treasurer of the Ukrainian American Freedom Foundation (2001-2005), which acts as the financial arm of the OUN-B “Land Leadership of America.” Paluch was accompanied by a pair of Banderites to witness him sign a new will that said Bojczuk, “being of sound and disposing mind,” decided to split a million dollars between his “adopted son” and a granddaughter in Ukraine, leave the rest of his estate to the UAFF, and name “my friend” Paluch as the executor.
They made a mistake; Bojczuk did not adopt his step-children. Also, as noted by Stefan Bojczuk’s lawyers, the signature on this will was “far above and to the right of the signature line, and appears to be written in a feeble hand.” According to them, the document was prepared by “an attorney, Myron Smorodsky, who, on information and belief … was the attorney for Paluch and/or the UAFF.” This lawyer who helped the UAFF was not known to be associated with the Banderites, but a circle of CIA-backed Ukrainian nationalists based in New York.
Myron Smorodsky (1944-2020) was a co-founder of the Ukrainian American Bar Association and two-time president of this organization (1978-79, 1990-93). As recently as 2019, he was its communications director. During his legal career, Smorodsky apparently defended Ukrainian Nazi collaborators from prosecution by the U.S. government, and served as legal counsel to the Ukrainian mission to the UN, the Ukrainian consulate in New York, and the Ukrainian embassy in Washington. Later, he “worked on estates involving decedents who died in the U.S. but left Ukrainian beneficiaries.” Smorodsky may not have been a Banderite, but his mother trained soldiers in the Ukrainian Insurgent Army.
During the Cold War, Mykola Lebed (1909-98) led a small OUN faction of ex-Banderites that the CIA put in charge of a front company based in New York City called the Prolog Research Corporation. Smorodsky was the same age as Roman Kupchinsky (1944-2010), a Ukrainian American Vietnam veteran1 who became a “full-fledged CIA officer” and president of Prolog after Lebed took a step back from the operation. As the youngest member of Prolog, the CIA reported that Kupchinsky “maintains close connections with student groups in the New York area.” That included the “Committee for the Defense of Soviet Political Prisoners” (CDSPP) that Myron Smorodsky joined. Some of its other early members, Adrian Karatnycky and Alexander Motyl, became part-time student employees of Lebed’s CIA front.
In 2020, a friend from the Toronto-based “Committee for the Defense of Valentyn Moroz” (CDVM) recalled that Smorodsky had “worked closely with Roman Kupchinsky and Prolog.” The CDVM was spearheaded by top Banderites in Canada, such as Stepan Bandera’s son Andriy, and Oleh Romanyshyn, a nephew of OUN-B leaders Yaroslav and Slava Stetsko. According to a declassified CIA document, the Banderite-led CDVM “played a very active role in 1973-74 in mobilizing Canadian public opinion around the question of persecution in the USSR. In the USA similar type committees were also active, but with less measure of success.” The CDSPP, established in 1972, “has taken a less ideological role while agitating among left and liberal intelligentsia on matters concerning dissent in Ukraine and in the USSR.” Apparently the two organizations learned to work together. Andy Semotiuk, a Ukrainian Canadian lawyer from the CDVM, helped to facilitate this when he moved to New York, joined the CDSPP, and befriended Smorodsky. “In the years that followed,” according to Semotiuk, who now writes for Forbes,
Myron and I worked on estates involving decedents who died in the U.S. but left Ukrainian beneficiaries. We worked together while I was practicing in California for ten years, and later when I was in New York and finally after I returned to Canada again. Myron was very knowledgeable about wills and estates and litigated Ukrainian estate cases successfully in the U.S. He helped to defend Ukrainians that were wrongfully accused of collaboration with the Nazis, a task that was not always easy.
The CIA pulled the plug on the Prolog Research Corporation when the Cold War ended. Cooperation between the CDVM and CDSPP however paved the way for a greater convergence of Banderites and ex-Prolog staffers in the years to come. After CIA funding for Lebed’s OUN faction dried up, several Prologers went on to help the U.S. government “promote democracy” in the former Soviet Union. Adrian Karatnycky, from the CDSPP, became the president of Freedom House (1993-2004), and his wife Nadia Diuk (1954-2019) rose through the ranks of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a founder of which infamously said in 1991, “A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.” Prolog was “a fascinating place” to work, Diuk once remembered, “but after a while it became very clear to me that Kupchinsky was the gravitational force that brought together a number of intersecting universes.”
From 1990 to 2002, Roman Kupchinsky directed Radio Svoboda, the Ukrainian language service of the US-funded Radio Liberty, which was established by the CIA. Kupchinsky led Radio Svoboda in the years that it got set up in Ukraine, but Andriy Haidamakha, a former editor of the OUN-B’s newspaper in Munich, almost the same age as Kupchinsky, was put in charge of the Kyiv bureau that they founded together. Haidamakha kept that job until 2000, when he was crowned the next international leader of OUN-B—a first for his generation of Ukrainian nationalists, and a first for someone from the postwar Ukrainian diaspora. I suspect this represented a turning point for the Banderites’ relationship with Washington.
Andriy Haidamakha’s 1987 Radio Liberty press pass
As the OUN-B prepared its “10th Great Assembly” that “elected” Andriy Haidamakha, the “Land Leadership of America” organized the Center for US-Ukrainian Relations (CUSUR), an important Banderite front group based in Washington and New York. CUSUR, some readers already know, was spearheaded by the “informational arm” of the UAFF, which was synonymous with the US branch of the OUN-B’s information service that shared its headquarters with a Stepan Bandera museum in London. Haidamakha proudly described the CUSUR’s annual conferences in Washington as the work of “Bandera nationalists and the patriotic sections of the Ukrainian [American] community.”
Petro Paluch, the UAFF treasurer who took advantage of Mykola Bojczuk in 2002, served on the steering committee that organized CUSUR’s main event that year. So did a pair of ex-Prolog staffers: Nadia Diuk and Adrian Karatnycky, the president of Freedom House, which sponsored the event along with the National Endowment for Democracy’s Democratic and Republican party affiliates. Over two decades, Karatnycky and Alexander Motyl, another veteran of Prolog and the CDSPP, have been recurring speakers at CUSUR conferences. I’ve even seen Karatnycky hanging out with Walter Zaryckyj, the UAFF president since 2018, who has led the CUSUR since its inception. So I’ve been curious about this convergence of Banderites and the Prolog crowd, and find it very intriguing that someone else who “worked closely” with that CIA front group conspired with the UAFF to defraud Bojczuk.
In 2004, the Superior Court of New Jersey ruled in favor of Stefan Bojczuk, and threw out the 2002 will. A year later, after fighting another lawsuit from Bojczuk, the UAFF “agreed to pay the estate $40,000 to settle a tortious interference claim.” In that time, instead of inheriting millions, the UAFF also paid $57,173.56 to Myroslaw Smorodsky; $29,231.47 to a tax attorney and consultants hired by Smorodsky; $66,226.00 in additional legal bills for UAFF members who approached Bojczuk; and some additional expenses for a grand total of $195,383.01. According to the UAFF’s tax filing in 2005, it ran a deficit of more than $250,000 in the past fiscal year.
At the “11th Great Assembly” of OUN-B, which apparently took place in 2005, Haidamakha was “re-elected” to a second term as Providnyk (Leader). Meanwhile the “Main Directorate” of the Bandera Organization established a commission to investigate the UAFF’s botched handling of Bojczuk. Three OUN-B members were appointed to the investigative committee: Irene Mycak, the head of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress’ National Holodomor Awareness Committee; Michael Koziupa, the president of another Banderite front group based in New York; and Volodymyr Karpynets, who at some point served as the financial officer of the OUN-B “Land Leadership in Great Britain,” and passed away less than a month ago.
In the spring of 2009, after the “12th Great Assembly” saw Stefan Romaniw of Australia ascend the Banderite throne, the Main Directorate canceled the work of the commission, and tasked its chief financial officer, “Tadej Mirnyj,” to write a final report on the Bojczuk affair. “Mirnyj,” evidently, is another name for Petro Lapczak, the chairman of the London branch of the Association of Ukrainians in Great Britain, who I’ve previously said is allegedly one of the British Banderites that oversees the international “OUN Fund,” which the UAFF represents in the United States. Lapczak acknowledged that the execution of the 2002 will “cannot be claimed to have taken place in transparent normal conditions.” He also noted that Theodore Oleshchuk, who chaired the UAFF until 2006, failed to cooperate with the commission. Lapczak put the blame on Oleshchuk, Paluch, and other UAFF representatives known to have been in the loop, but not the foundation itself.
“Report of the ND [Main Directorate] Commission on the Activities of the Volya Foundation [UAFF] and the Inheritence of Mykola Bojczuk” (2009)
Because Oleshchuk and Paluch allegedly worked in secret from some UAFF board members, their scheme was “not a consequence of the decision of the Volya Foundation,” which is the Ukrainian name of the UAFF. That being said, Petro Lapczak did not recommend any actions against those he held responsible, just that they compensate the UAFF for its legal bills, and that the OUN-B leadership should “contribute to improving and consolidating the future activities of the foundation.” (Oleshchuk, a former “Land Leader of America,” remained on the UAFF board until 2018.) Furthermore, he recommended that “consideration be given to the consolidation of the internal mechanism for retaining the leadership of the Volya Foundation in the hands of the TPA [‘Land Leadership of America’]” when the latter comes under new management.
Epilogue: Banderite Feud in NYC
Stefan Kaczurak (right) with far-right Ukrainian politician Andriy Parubiy during one of his visits to New York City
In 2013-17, Stefan Kaczurak was the deputy head of the OUN-B in the United States and the financial officer of the “Land Leadership of America” (TPA, Terenovoho Provodu Ameryky), while at the same time serving as the treasurer of the Ukrainian American Freedom Foundation and the president of the OUN-B’s Organization for the Defense of Four Freedoms of Ukraine (ODFFU). He also managed the Banderite headquarters building in Manhattan, which is technically owned by ODFFU. In the United States, Kaczurak was evidently the real power behind the throne in those days.
Around 2016, “to better secure the property” in New York, the U.S. leadership of OUN-B decided to create a new ODFFU-affiliated foundation which would take control of the organization’s most valuable asset. But before that could be accomplished, the TPA and UAFF came under new management, which organized a rival ODFFU board of directors that almost instantly appointed Askold Lozynskyj as the new building manager. Lozynskyj, the Banderite lawyer accused of getting rich by taking advantage of Ukrainian immigrants who hired him to prepare their wills, was an architect of the ODFFU takeover.
The OUN-B’s legally dubious “extraordinary convention” of ODFFU on September 28, 2019, denounced as a coup d’etat by the existing board of directors, prompted the anonymous complaint to the New York State Attorney General’s office that morning, which immediately got back to the Banderites. “Please be advised that someone in the SK [Stefan Kaczurak] camp (we can only surmise) has pulled a defamatory trigger on our entire community,” Walter Zaryckyj warned his colleagues later that day. “Please keep all of this in mind when contemplating the results of any attempted reconciliation btw the legitimate forces in ODFFU (seeking reform) and the forces constituting the existing ODFFU BOD (seeking more of the same)!!”
On February 24, 2017, an alleged “grey cardinal” of the OUN-B sent a letter to the leading members of the Banderite network in the United States. This was Bohdan Harhaj of New York, who complained about the ineffectiveness of the TPA and UAFF since they came under new management in 2013-14. Harhaj seemed to hint that when he led the UAFF (2007-13), he also chaired the TPA. Now his successors appeared to be “sleeping in a blissful dream!” Although Harhaj remained on the UAFF board of directors, along with other prominent OUN-B members (Theodore Oleshchuk, Bohdan Fedorak, and Pavlo Bandriwsky), they were allegedly shut out of the decision-making process. The situation was reversed in the next year, after Walter Zaryckyj became the new chairman of the TPA and UAFF. As for Stefan Kaczurak, his side of the story seems to be reflected in a 2016 TPA report, which explained that the “Volya Foundation” (UAFF) is the “financial wing” of the “Land Leadership.”
The board of the Volya Foundation, according to the original tradition, was deliberately appointed by the Land Leader of America after each Grand Assembly. The composition of the foundation’s board mirrored the executive of the TPA, which strategically includes 2 members who are responsible for specific programs of the foundation … Currently, the Volya Foundation consists of 7 members of the organization (left over from the previous TPA), but this does not reflect the current TPA executive as it should. This sometimes makes it difficult to carry out certain work at the organizational and, most importantly, at the public level due to personal reasons. Thanks to the majority vote, we are able to resolve financial transactions/difficulties. It should be emphasized that thanks to friend Dovbush [Stefan Kaczurak] and mainly friend Sun [Helen Turyk], everything is done with great difficulty but in a professional manner - in accordance with government requirements.
Helen Turyk, who replaced Peter Paluch as the UAFF treasurer in 2006 and became the ODFFU bookkeeper in 2010, at first resisted the 2019 “coup,” but she joined the winning side after Askold Lozynskyj and company seized the building in Manhattan. The “Kaczurak camp” allegedly wanted things to be clean and above-board in their clandestine Banderite network—and to curtail what they might have called its criminal elements. Their OUN-B rivals would howl at that sentence. Walter Zaryckyj, for example, has declared that Kaczurak is going to jail.
Under Kaczurak’s management of the Banderite building, the UAFF and Center for US-Ukrainian Relations were evicted for non-payment of rent. The 2019 complaint declared that Walter Zaryckyj and his CUSUR sidekick Mykola Hryckowian “were expelled from the NYC Ukrainian community for fraud, lying, stealing and many other things.” As for Hryckowian, “Several times he was caught stealing the money donated by the [ODFFU] membership during Christmas caroling fund raising, called Koliada, and other donations.” (Traditionally, this is the main source of income for the TPA.) The international Bojczukgate commission even found Hryckowian to be partially responsible for that fiasco twenty years ago. In 2019, the Banderites installed him as the ODFFU president.
Theodore Oleshchuk, the former “Land Leader of America” who chaired the UAFF during the Bojczuk affair, passed away as the Banderite feud for control of the ODFFU and its headquarters building spilled into court. Just over a year before the “coup,” and his death, Oleshchuk was removed from the UAFF leadership, along with Kaczurak and its former president. Ironically, Kaczurak’s “old board” of ODFFU, which allegedly opposed the “criminal element” in OUN-B, was reconstituted in 2020 under the leadership of Dmitri Lenczuk, Oleshchuk’s grandson in New Jersey. Serhii Kuzan, a former rising star of OUN-B in Ukraine, who also seemed to part ways with the Bandera Organization in 2019, befriended the Oleshchuk-Lenczuk family during the Kaczurak years. He indicated support for the “Kaczurak camp” in ODFFU, which got steamrolled by the OUN-B, but the Kuzan team appears to be poised for a comeback, and that could turn the tables in New York again.
Stefan Kaczurak and Serhii Kuzan at the Banderite summer camp in Ellenville, New York with the OUN-B newspaper published by UAFF until 2018
Even if that should come to pass, evidently it is not so simple for the “Land Leadership of America” to appoint a new board of the Ukrainian American Freedom Foundation. That was a problem for the TPA in the Kaczurak years, and the OUN-B commission that investigated the Bojczuk affair, because the Banderites formed a new TPA in 2004, but it took 2-3 years to install a more cooperative UAFF board.
Since the ODFFU conflict erupted (2019), and the next “Grand Assembly” took place in Ukraine (2022), it seems likely that the OUN-B would have established another commission to investigate the uproar in New York. Just so that an especially shady clique of Banderites from the Ukrainian diaspora can declare (to quote Walter Zaryckyj), “We have plenary power” in the U.S. network, UAFF leaders have undoubtedly burned far more OUN-B resources on lawyers, and jeopardized losing their Manhattan building altogether after the Supreme Court of New York County appointed a receiver to take over the property.
Indeed, there are echoes of the Bojczuk affair in this conflict. Take for example Bohdan Shandor, another two-time president of the Ukrainian American Bar Association (1982-84, 2019-20). According to Myron Swidersky’s 2007 report, Mykola Bojczuk had agreed to meet with Shandor in 2001 to discuss “the eventual registration of his property to the Volya Foundation [UAFF] and to create a corporation under the foundation, of which M. Bojczuk would be the chairman.” Supposedly Bojczuk, at 88 years old, agreed to this at a meeting with Bohdan Shandor and UAFF treasurer Petro Paluch in 2001, but negotiations broke down after “an unpleasant fight” about Shandor’s bill. As the old man’s health deteriorated, the Banderites got a new lawyer, Myron Smorodsky, and Shandor went running to Stefan Bojczuk to give him legal advice about fending off the UAFF.
In 2020, Bohdan Shandor worked on Donald Trump’s re-election campaign, which had a “Ukrainians for Trump” group closely tied to the Palatine, Illinois branch of ODFFU that appears to have hosted the controversial “extraordinary convention” in 2019. Shandor subsequently became one of the lawyers hired by the “new board” of ODFFU that put Askold Lozynskyj, an advisor to “Ukrainian Americans for Biden,” in charge of the OUN-B building in Manhattan. “This cabal, that’s what I’ll call them,” Shandor told an ODFFU convention in October 2022, outlining a conspiracy “that Mr. Kaczurak and others working with him, starting in 2008, began a plan of action whereby they would seize control” of the Banderite headquarters. And “according to the most recent real estate appraisals that I’ve seen,” this property in New York was valued “in excess of 30 million dollars”—roughly the size of the Bojczuk estate.
Thanks for reading. This story will be continued as we explore another angle of the Banderite feud in the New York area: “The Battle of the Banks” in “Little Ukraine,” Manhattan. If you want to support my work, you can “Buy Me a Coffee.” Also, if you live in New York, or visit soon, I’m still offering “Hidden History of Little Ukraine” tours.
1The Vietnam war, according to Roman Kupchinsky, was “a classroom where I studied Ukrainian nationalism, as a result of which I began to see the Vietnamese enemy in a different light.” In the 1980s, the Justice Department’s Nazi-hunting Office of Special Investigations began to pursue Mykola Lebed. The CIA managed to protect him behind the scenes, but for good measure, Kupchinsky publicly led a lonely campaign on his behalf. In those days, he predicted, “If, someday in the future, the United States ever comes to rely upon Soviet evidence to try American ‘war criminals’ of the Vietnam War, I shall no doubt figure on some list given by the Vietnamese government to the Justice Department, and thirty Vietnamese ‘witnesses’ will come forward to identify me as a murderer of women and children in some hamlet.” In 2008, he struck a different tone, “begging the Lord forgiveness for my acts against his children — the ‘Gooks’...”
https://banderalobby.substack.com/p/boychukgate
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Cries for help
Cries for help
After the attacks on nuclear weapons, as well as statements about the mobilization of women, Zelensky decided to attack the need for NATO to prepare brigades for the war in Ukraine, since "Ukrainian brigades are tired."
These statements are in fact cries for help. The situation at the front is deteriorating, losses are growing, the risk of new operational crises is increasing.
Hence the talk about "it is necessary to create conditions for ending the war in 3 months", which implies a more obvious involvement of NATO in the war. Because there is an understanding that in 3 months the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be in a much worse situation. And the brigades are really tired.
Therefore, inertial scenarios guarantee the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces under all current inputs. Therefore, new inputs are needed - a direct attack with NATO weapons from the territory of Ukraine to the entire strategic depth, a direct introduction of NATO troops, the transfer of nuclear weapons under the guise of development, etc.
All this is necessary because the usual scenarios no longer promise to save the Zelensky regime, which, of course, is not beneficial to those who were behind all this from the beginning. Therefore, demands for escalation are cries for help, including by starting a global nuclear war. These are signs of despair that contrast with the growing demands in the world to end the war unleashed by the West and their puppet.
Russia, in this regard, needs to be prepared for escalation scenarios and continue to achieve results on the front, as this is the best way to achieve the desired goals of the war and ensure Russia a worthy place in the future world order, where Zelensky will have no place.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9445631.html
Google Translator
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/18/2024
After briefly presenting his Victory Plan at the seat of Ukraine’s national sovereignty, the Verkhovna Rada, Volodymyr Zelensky has continued his tour to try to win the support of the people and institutions that really matter – his foreign partners. In Brussels, the Ukrainian president sought to curry favour with one of his main suppliers, the current support of the Ukrainian state, the European Union, whose Parliament once again welcomed him as a hero. “The last time you were here,” wrote Roberta Metsola, “I promised you our unwavering support on your country’s path to EU membership. Today I am proud to welcome you to the House of European Democracy as the leader of a candidate country for EU membership.” “Ukraine is Europe,” she said, deliberately confusing the continent with the political bloc. However, with EU entry long understood as a decision that has been made and that it is simply a matter of time, Zelensky's speech did not focus on the benefits of the Union or the enormous benefit that will be obtained by admitting Ukraine into the European family , but on the continuation of his campaign to formalize the Victory Plan as a possible way out of the war. Kiev is acting in the same way that in the last decade it has managed to institutionalize the nationalist discourse, previously only characteristic of a part of the country, as the only possible national discourse. Ukraine is working to achieve the same objective and to make its plan - in reality a wish list that its allies must help it to fulfill and not a roadmap to achieve them - appear as a path to a just peace .
“We are ready to put the Victory Plan on the table for European leaders and we count on them to support it,” Zelensky wrote yesterday in a long thread in which he details the meaning of his proposal much more in depth than he did the day before before the deputies of his country. “Ukraine is ready for real diplomacy. But to achieve it, it must be strong,” added the Ukrainian president, who, continuing with euphemisms such as a just peace, which must be just for the population under his control and not for those who looked to Russia for protection against Ukrainian aggression, seems to understand true diplomacy as that in which he is able to dictate the terms and does not have to negotiate with the other party.
Here, too, there is a clear continuity with the precedents of this war. During the years of the Donbass war, Ukraine always prioritized the Normandy Format, in which it negotiated only with Russia and not with Donetsk and Luhansk, at that time the side that Kiev was facing militarily. In the spring of 2022, Kiev repeated the modus operandi of delaying negotiations as long as it was able to obtain concessions - such as the Russian withdrawal from northern Ukraine - until, having managed to gain time for its allies to send sufficient war material, it withdrew from negotiations in which concessions were demanded of it. Since then, Kiev has made it clear that it will only negotiate in a position of strength and without considering unacceptable concessions. The precedent of the peace agreements that were supposed to end the Donbass conflict is useful to understand what kind of conditions Ukraine is not willing to accept.
Ukraine's well-known refusal to implement the Minsk roadmap, which did not require territorial concessions or the renunciation of membership in political or military blocs in order to regain territory, may indicate Ukraine's low tolerance for true diplomacy , where negotiations are necessary and all parties are aware that they will have to make concessions. This is precisely what Ukraine is trying to avoid by means of the current plan, which requires its partners to take the war to Russia, an act that can only be understood as an escalation, in the name of peace.
Kiev’s discursive game in the coming months will thus be based on information about the preparations for the next peace summit and calls to end the war, mixed with demands for a greater and faster delivery of weapons in order to be able to intensify the bombings against Russian territory or strategic places such as Crimea, whose population the Ukrainian president has not addressed at any time during his presentation of the Victory Plan . Projection exercises such as the statement that Ukrainian soldiers “need more strength because Putin is preparing his reinforcements to continue the war, not to end it” will occur more often as Zelensky is preparing his reinforcements to continue the war, not to end it.
“Putin simply has to see that his geopolitical calculations are not working,” added Zelensky, whose geopolitical calculations are even further from reality than those of the Russian president. While it is currently a pipe dream to expect Ukraine to abandon the four regions that Russia has recognized as its own (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson) as well as Crimea, which has been Russian since 2014, it is much less feasible for Ukraine to achieve its goals: territorial integrity according to its 1991 borders, NATO membership and a non-nuclear deterrent package , i.e. Western missiles on its territory.
Apparently satisfied with Zelensky’s Victory Plan , the still EU chief diplomat insisted yesterday that the war “is existential” and called on member states to continue supporting Ukraine, for whom winning peace and war “have to go hand in hand.” That is exactly the reaction Ukraine hopes to get from its partners, although, to the chagrin of Zelensky and Ermak, it is being lacking even despite the subtext of the proposal. Ukraine demands a lot from its allies, but also wants to show that it offers them important compensations. Kiev demands an immediate invitation to NATO accession that “would not only symbolize NATO, but also show the inevitability of Ukraine’s European integration and the irreversible path to democracy in the country.” "The invitation will strengthen our diplomatic position and will be one of the main arguments for stopping the war," Zelensky said yesterday, presenting the invitation - not even the entry itself - to the Alliance as the element that will magically turn the war around in the same way that the Leopard tanks were going to break through the Zaporozhye front.
The Ukrainian president included a thinly veiled nuclear threat, saying that “either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons or Ukraine will be in NATO. NATO countries are not at war today. All people are alive in NATO countries. And that is why we chose NATO over nuclear weapons.” Ukraine ratified the nuclear non-proliferation treaty in the 1990s, but has not forgotten this nuclear aspiration. This is not the first time that Zelensky has used the nuclear issue as a threat, an argument he already put forward in 2021 and which was one of the reasons for the rise of political tensions.
Aware of the cost of maintaining the Ukrainian state and armed forces for its partners, with a certain tone of desperation as the situation worsens on the front and Russia does not give in economically or militarily as kyiv would wish, and fearful that war fatigue will take its toll on the former comedian's most important audience, Western leaders, kyiv has seen the need to offer something in return. Peace through force does not refer only to the current war, but Ukraine intends to extend it into the future, thereby consolidating itself as a necessary external border where the West cannot afford not to have a significant presence that will bring them benefits. In exchange for support, Zelensky presents Ukraine as practically a NATO military base, the Western springboard against Russia that Moscow has denounced in the last decade that the country was becoming. The path had already begun, but the Russian invasion has accelerated it, although not as much as Zelensky would like.
“Ukraine has critical resources worth trillions of dollars, and Russia wants to seize them. These include titanium, uranium, lithium, graphite, manganese and others. These resources must not fall into the hands of Russia or its allies,” the Ukrainian president said, adding that “Ukraine proposes a special agreement with key partners – the EU, the US and our mutual global partners – to protect Ukraine’s critical resources, make joint investments and direct the relevant economic potential towards our shared growth.” One does not need to read between the lines to see in the proposal a practically colonial relationship in which Ukraine presents itself as a supplier of soldiers to “free up US forces to do more in their priority regions, especially in the Indo-Pacific” and raw materials to profit from.
“It is realistic to maintain positions on the front inside Ukrainian territory and at the same time bring the war back to Russia, so that the Russians can feel what war is and start to hate Putin for it,” Zelensky said, even though Ukraine’s setbacks contradict his appeal for peace through war, two aspects as compatible as the colonial relationship that his approaches present with the discourse of the national liberation war or the references to democracy with the cancellation of elections or a purely aesthetic use of Parliament.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/18/30768/
Google Translator
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 17 October 2024)
— Units of the North group of forces in the Liptsov and Volchansk directions inflicted losses on the formations of the 57th motorized infantry , 92nd airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 125th territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Liptsy, Russkaya Lozovaya and Volchanskiye Khutor in the Kharkiv region.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 45 servicemen and three 122-mm howitzers D-30 . A warehouse of unmanned aerial vehicles and a field ammunition depot were destroyed. — Units of the West
group of forces took up more advantageous lines and positions. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 3rd Tank , 43rd , 67th , 77th , 116th Mechanized , 3rd Assault Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 110th Territorial Defense Brigade and the 27th National Guard Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Kupyansk, Petrovpavlivka, Novoosinovo, Kruglyakovka, Lozovaya, Pershotravnevoe, Druzhelyubovka in the Kharkiv region, Novosadove and Torskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy lost over 460 servicemen, four pickup trucks, a 105-mm L-119 gun made in Great Britain, a 122-mm D-30 howitzer, as well as an M113 armored personnel carrier , a 155-mm M198 howitzer and a 105-mm M119 gun made in the USA . The Anklav-N electronic warfare station and six field ammunition depots were destroyed. — As a result of active actions by units of the Southern Group of Forces, the settlement of Maksimilyanovka in the Donetsk People's Republic was liberated . The formations of the 24th , 30th , 54th , 93rd Mechanized , 59th Motorized Infantry , 143rd , 144th Infantry , 46th Airmobile , 79th Airborne Assault Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 116th Territorial Defense Brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Serebryanka, Seversk, Orekhovo-Vasilievka, Stupochki, Predtechino, Belaya Gora, Kurakhovo, Ilyinka and Katerinovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to 965 servicemen, a 155-mm howitzer M777 made in the USA and two 122-mm howitzers D-30 . The electronic warfare station "Anklav-N" and four ammunition depots were destroyed .
- Units of the "Center" group of forces continued to advance into the depths of the enemy's defenses. The manpower and equipment of the 32nd , 33rd , 151st Mechanized , 142nd , 152nd Infantry , 25th Airborne , 95th Airborne Assault Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 119th Territorial Defense Brigade and the 2nd National Guard Brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Dzerzhinsk, Shcherbinovka, Nikolaevka, Dimitrov, Krasnoarmeysk, Selidovo, Tsukurino and Berestki of the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy lost up to 530 servicemen, four pickup trucks, two 152-mm howitzers "Msta-B" and two 122-mm howitzers D-30 . - Units of the "East" force grouping improved their tactical position. Defeated the formations of the 72nd Mechanized, 58th Motorized Infantry Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 127th and 241st Territorial Defense Brigades in the areas of the settlements of Storozhovoe, Dobrovolye, Novoukrainka of the Donetsk People's Republic and Temirovka of the Zaporizhia region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 105 servicemen, an M113 armored personnel carrier made in the USA, four vehicles and a 155-mm self-propelled artillery mount "Caesar" made in France. - Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the manpower and equipment of the 31st, 117th Mechanized, 141st Infantry Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 121st and 124th Territorial Defense Brigades in the areas of the settlements of Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, Pavlovka of the Zaporizhia region, Osokorovka and Kamyshany of the Kherson region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 55 servicemen, six vehicles, a 152-mm Giatsint-B gun and a 152-mm D-20 gun . A field ammunition depot and wo warehouses with military-technical property.
- Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile troops and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted damage on energy infrastructure facilities that ensured the operation of enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in the 141st district.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
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The Grand Poobah's Not-So-Grand Victory Ploy Unveiled
Simplicius
Oct 17, 2024
<snip>
(We've covered this stuff pretty well but this is interesting:)
The fourth point is the most ominous by far. Here it is again: (Video at link.)
In fact, we can go out on a limb and say this point is the whole meat and potatoes—the very reason for the existence not only of all other points, but of the war itself. Isn’t it so interesting Zelensky unveils this key linchpin only a day or two after the announcement of Ukraine’s largest titanium production being sold off for pennies on the dollar?
The most ominous part of it is Zelensky’s emphasis on the fact that the agreement has a guardedly “secret” component to be shared only with the top few allies, which he appears to tie into the allies’ military protection of their resource ‘investments’. What more can one say? This is nothing other than Zelensky’s pimping out of his country’s economic treasures and future in order to desperately tie NATO militarily to Ukraine’s hip. This is just the continuation of the same old plan, except this time via outright bribery: create massive monetary incentive to obligate NATO into sending boots on ground to confront Russia and save Ukraine by virtue or deterrence of WWIII. It’s dangling trillions before their noses to entice their help, with the alluded-to most ‘secret’ component of the deal likely having to do with the sheer preferential nature of the disaster capitalism extraction and economic shock therapy in one.
It’s just more of what we already knew, that the Ukrainian game is all about the Western crony elite positioning themselves to pillage Ukraine’s resources and industries. For instance, most missed this excerpt from ex-CIA chief Pompeo’s recent prank-call with Russian Vovan and Lexus posing as Poroshenko. In the private call he describes how he got his own comfy sinecure on a big Ukrainian enterprise: (Video at link.)
Isn’t it interesting how the ex-head of the CIA now runs a bank of all things, and that bank is buying up Ukrainian enterprises? Also interesting it happens to be a telecom, just like Vodafone owned by the Azerbaijani oligarch who just bought up the remainder of Ukraine’s titanium industry. Virtually every deep state elite involved in the Ukraine debacle has got their fingers in the jar.
<snip>
(Much more at link.)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the ... nd-victory
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Larry On "Mixed Reviews"...
... of Ze's "Victory Plan", LOL))
Read the whole thing at Larry's blog.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/10 ... views.html
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Zelensky’s Unrealistic “Victory Plan” Is Driven By One Of Two Ulterior Motives
Andrew Korybko
Oct 17, 2024
He’s either hinting at what he wants after “escalating to de-escalate” in the near future or sowing the seeds for a “stab-in-the-back” theory.
Zelensky finally presented the first five parts of his much-ballyhooed “Victory Plan” to the Rada on Wednesday while still keeping three of them secret per his own admission. Readers can review his full speech here and Reuters’ concise summary here. Upon doing either, they’ll see that it’s unrealistic due to Ukraine demanding: an invitation to join NATO; the joint interception of Russian missiles; and hosting “a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package” on its soil, among several other demands.
All three are non-starters for NATO since the bloc doesn’t want to get directly involved in this proxy war, which its comparatively more pragmatic policymakers who still call the shots fear could easily spiral out of control into World War III, hence why nothing of the sort has happened yet. That’s not to say that their hawkish rivals stand no chance of changing that, and some are speculatively working behind their governments’ backs to this end, but just that Zelensky won’t get what he wants unless that happens.
The abovementioned calculations will likely remain constant seeing as how they’ve been in place for over two and a half years so far, which he’s keenly aware of, thus raising the question of what he sought to achieve by making such demands from his partners that have already been rejected. The argument can be made that he was driven by one of two ulterior motives: hint at what he wants after possibly “escalating to de-escalate” in the near future or sow the seeds for a “stab-in-the-back” theory.
Regarding the first, this could take the form of a nuclear provocation and/or attacking Belarus, while the second was coincidentally lent credence two days prior to Zelensky’s speech by the Royal United Services Institute in an article about “The Impending Betrayal of Ukraine”. These scenarios could be averted if the G7 agrees to comply with at least some of his military demands in exchange for being allowed to extract Ukraine’s critical mineral riches like one of the points of his “Victory Plan” strongly suggests.
That implied proposal builds upon what he promised the G7 in May 2022, which was analyzed here at the time and followed up on in February 2024 here, the point being that there’s a precedent for him offering up his country for sale in exchange for getting what he wants. If these critical mineral riches don’t tempt the West into fulfilling at least part of his “Victory Plan”, and it was explained above why they probably won’t, then he’ll likely resort to either of the two backup plans that were discussed.
The takeaway from what he just revealed is that ulterior motives are clearly at play since his main demands have already been rejected. Even the innuendo that Ukraine’s critical mineral riches could be swapped for supposedly game-changing military support might not get the West to reconsider since it fears an uncontrollable escalation sequence with nuclear-armed Russia. That being the case, observers should expect him to soon “escalate to de-escalate” or pin the blame for Ukraine’s defeat on the West.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/zelensky ... ctory-plan
(First the one, then the other.)
*****
Stolen fortunes of Ukrainian immigrants. Convergence of the Bandera cult and CIA cut-outs. Prelude to a feud in NYC's "Little Ukraine."
Moss Robeson
Oct 09, 2024
Twenty years ago, Mykola Bojczuk, a wealthy Ukrainian nationalist, passed away in a nursing home in Bridgewater, New Jersey, at which point his Russian-speaking son from the Soviet Union stood to inherit almost all of his estate. But when Stefan Bojczuk went to probate his father’s will from 1982, he discovered that “someone else had beaten him to the Somerset County Surrogate's Office.”
The Ukrainian American Freedom Foundation (UAFF), an important front group for the OUN-B, or “Banderite” faction of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, had submitted another will from 2002, which Bojczuk barely managed to sign in the aftermath of a stroke, while also “suffering from very significant dementia.”
At the end of the day, Stefan Bojczuk won in court, but I’m reminded of a sensational anonymous complaint, alleging “ Large Scare Fraudulent Financial Activities ,” that was submitted to the New York State Attorney General’s office in 2019 about the OUN-B network, and the UAFF in particular, which owns 40% of the Banderite headquarters building in Kyiv.
In my recent documentary, “Big Trouble in Little Ukraine,” there is a moment when Walter Zaryckyj, the UAFF president since 2018, told Banderite youth in 1989 Canada, “our wealth is being passed over there [to the Soviet Union] because a lot of our old folks don’t write out wills.” Over a decade after the USSR collapsed, it seems the Banderites were still nervous about ex-Soviet citizens inheriting “our wealth.” “It’s as if we don’t have enough lawyers,” joked Zaryckyj, “including my friends, like Asha.” That was apparently a reference to Askold Lozynskyj, an important OUN-B member in the United States. According to the 2019 complaint,
For the record: Askold Lozynskyj made his money by taking advantage of Ukrainian organizations, but mainly from their members — Ukrainian immigrants that couldn’t speak and/or write English. Those people trusted him with everything. … Ukrainian immigrants, who didn’t have family and didn’t understand the English language, went to him for advice and procedures on how to prepare a will in order that after their passing, the building/assets that they owned would go to Ukrainian Organizations and/or churches. Yet somehow, after their death, those assets became properties of Askold Lozynskyj, Esq. That is how he started making money.
So it appears that the Bojczuk case was far from an isolated incident.
According to an internal OUN-B document from 2007 by Myron Swidersky (1925-2022), the vice president of the UAFF in the early-to-mid 2000s, Mykola Bojczuk was a young entrepreneur in 1940s western Ukraine, who worked in the economic sector of OUN-B and training camps for its Ukrainian Insurgent Army. After the war, in American-occupied Germany, Bojczuk was reportedly “further involved in the work of the economic sector, organizing an organizational enterprise.” This might have been the “luggage factory whose profits enabled him to bring a substantial nest egg to the United States in 1949.”
“The case of the last will of Mykola Bojczuk (its beginnings and final results) - Analysis” by Myron Swidersky (2007)
In 1941, before the Nazis invaded the Soviet Union, Bojczuk is said to have gone into hiding from Soviet authorities that took over western Ukraine in 1939. They deported his wife and young son, Stefan, to Kazakhstan. As told by one article, “When the Germans invaded later that year, Bojczuk stayed behind and continued making money.” He fled westward in 1944, “one step behind the retreating Germans and ahead of the Red Army.” Bojczuk was only reunited with his son in 1994, over fifty years after they last saw each other. In the meantime, Mykola built a hotel, purchased a valuable tract of land, and married an American woman who owned a stone yard—all in New Jersey. By the 21st century, he was thought to be worth 30 million dollars. And maybe 40 million, according to Swidersky.
During the Cold War, Bojczuk was reportedly a financial supporter of the Banderites. For example, he paid for at least one of their trips to Taiwan for a conference of the “Anti-Communist League.” It’s unclear if this was the Asian People’s Anti-Communist League (APACL), which was partnered with the Banderites’ Anti-Bolshevik Bloc of Nations (ABN), or the World Anti-Communist League (WACL), in which the ABN represented the “captive nations” of the Soviet Union. According to the Swidersky report, Bojczuk’s Days Inn hotel also hosted Banderite meetings, including the 1982 World Congress of the “Ukrainian Liberation Front,” the international coordinating body of OUN-B front groups.
It was in 1982 that Mykola Bojczuk signed his original will, according to which his wife would inherit almost everything upon his death. It did not stipulate what would happen if she died before him. Because Bojczuk never officially adopted his two step-children, that meant almost everything would go to his only biological child in the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic. The scrivener of the will said that he warned Bojczuk about this possibility, who responded, “no, no, no, he’s a communist.” But they never changed a thing. It was said that Stefan Bojczuk “grew up to be the head electrician at a large Soviet cotton mill” in Kazakhstan. In 1994, he “arrived unannounced” in Bridgewater. If at first Mykola Bojczuk declined to change his will out of procrastination or stubbornness, later it might have been because he reconnected with son, who made him a grandfather, and eventually took over the Days Inn hotel. Stefan’s step-sister alleged that Mykola was afraid of him.
The former Days Inn on U.S. Route 22 in Bridgewater, NJ (2012 Google Street View)
In any case, Mykola Bojczuk’s second wife died in September 2001. He was 88 years old. In the coming months, he “suffered a series of debilitating strokes,” after which Stefan successfully applied for guardianship, defeating his step-siblings in court. A pair of physicians who examined Mykola at a nursing home in Bridgewater submitted affidavits to the court that he was “mentally incompetent.”
On March 22, 2002, a Ukrainian American neurologist examined Mykola, and found him to be “suffering from very significant dementia.” According to him, “Mr. Bojczuk is not oriented to place or time. He does not know where he is. He did not know such obvious things as the identify of the President that he could not pass any mini mental examination.” Three days later, a psychiatrist agreed that the patient was “not oriented to day, date or place. His higher cognitive functions and memory are impaired. His judgement and insight are impaired.”
Another three days later, and Mykola Bojczuk received a visit from Peter Paluch, the treasurer of the Ukrainian American Freedom Foundation (2001-2005), which acts as the financial arm of the OUN-B “Land Leadership of America.” Paluch was accompanied by a pair of Banderites to witness him sign a new will that said Bojczuk, “being of sound and disposing mind,” decided to split a million dollars between his “adopted son” and a granddaughter in Ukraine, leave the rest of his estate to the UAFF, and name “my friend” Paluch as the executor.
They made a mistake; Bojczuk did not adopt his step-children. Also, as noted by Stefan Bojczuk’s lawyers, the signature on this will was “far above and to the right of the signature line, and appears to be written in a feeble hand.” According to them, the document was prepared by “an attorney, Myron Smorodsky, who, on information and belief … was the attorney for Paluch and/or the UAFF.” This lawyer who helped the UAFF was not known to be associated with the Banderites, but a circle of CIA-backed Ukrainian nationalists based in New York.
Myron Smorodsky (1944-2020) was a co-founder of the Ukrainian American Bar Association and two-time president of this organization (1978-79, 1990-93). As recently as 2019, he was its communications director. During his legal career, Smorodsky apparently defended Ukrainian Nazi collaborators from prosecution by the U.S. government, and served as legal counsel to the Ukrainian mission to the UN, the Ukrainian consulate in New York, and the Ukrainian embassy in Washington. Later, he “worked on estates involving decedents who died in the U.S. but left Ukrainian beneficiaries.” Smorodsky may not have been a Banderite, but his mother trained soldiers in the Ukrainian Insurgent Army.
During the Cold War, Mykola Lebed (1909-98) led a small OUN faction of ex-Banderites that the CIA put in charge of a front company based in New York City called the Prolog Research Corporation. Smorodsky was the same age as Roman Kupchinsky (1944-2010), a Ukrainian American Vietnam veteran1 who became a “full-fledged CIA officer” and president of Prolog after Lebed took a step back from the operation. As the youngest member of Prolog, the CIA reported that Kupchinsky “maintains close connections with student groups in the New York area.” That included the “Committee for the Defense of Soviet Political Prisoners” (CDSPP) that Myron Smorodsky joined. Some of its other early members, Adrian Karatnycky and Alexander Motyl, became part-time student employees of Lebed’s CIA front.
In 2020, a friend from the Toronto-based “Committee for the Defense of Valentyn Moroz” (CDVM) recalled that Smorodsky had “worked closely with Roman Kupchinsky and Prolog.” The CDVM was spearheaded by top Banderites in Canada, such as Stepan Bandera’s son Andriy, and Oleh Romanyshyn, a nephew of OUN-B leaders Yaroslav and Slava Stetsko. According to a declassified CIA document, the Banderite-led CDVM “played a very active role in 1973-74 in mobilizing Canadian public opinion around the question of persecution in the USSR. In the USA similar type committees were also active, but with less measure of success.” The CDSPP, established in 1972, “has taken a less ideological role while agitating among left and liberal intelligentsia on matters concerning dissent in Ukraine and in the USSR.” Apparently the two organizations learned to work together. Andy Semotiuk, a Ukrainian Canadian lawyer from the CDVM, helped to facilitate this when he moved to New York, joined the CDSPP, and befriended Smorodsky. “In the years that followed,” according to Semotiuk, who now writes for Forbes,
Myron and I worked on estates involving decedents who died in the U.S. but left Ukrainian beneficiaries. We worked together while I was practicing in California for ten years, and later when I was in New York and finally after I returned to Canada again. Myron was very knowledgeable about wills and estates and litigated Ukrainian estate cases successfully in the U.S. He helped to defend Ukrainians that were wrongfully accused of collaboration with the Nazis, a task that was not always easy.
The CIA pulled the plug on the Prolog Research Corporation when the Cold War ended. Cooperation between the CDVM and CDSPP however paved the way for a greater convergence of Banderites and ex-Prolog staffers in the years to come. After CIA funding for Lebed’s OUN faction dried up, several Prologers went on to help the U.S. government “promote democracy” in the former Soviet Union. Adrian Karatnycky, from the CDSPP, became the president of Freedom House (1993-2004), and his wife Nadia Diuk (1954-2019) rose through the ranks of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a founder of which infamously said in 1991, “A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.” Prolog was “a fascinating place” to work, Diuk once remembered, “but after a while it became very clear to me that Kupchinsky was the gravitational force that brought together a number of intersecting universes.”
From 1990 to 2002, Roman Kupchinsky directed Radio Svoboda, the Ukrainian language service of the US-funded Radio Liberty, which was established by the CIA. Kupchinsky led Radio Svoboda in the years that it got set up in Ukraine, but Andriy Haidamakha, a former editor of the OUN-B’s newspaper in Munich, almost the same age as Kupchinsky, was put in charge of the Kyiv bureau that they founded together. Haidamakha kept that job until 2000, when he was crowned the next international leader of OUN-B—a first for his generation of Ukrainian nationalists, and a first for someone from the postwar Ukrainian diaspora. I suspect this represented a turning point for the Banderites’ relationship with Washington.
Andriy Haidamakha’s 1987 Radio Liberty press pass
As the OUN-B prepared its “10th Great Assembly” that “elected” Andriy Haidamakha, the “Land Leadership of America” organized the Center for US-Ukrainian Relations (CUSUR), an important Banderite front group based in Washington and New York. CUSUR, some readers already know, was spearheaded by the “informational arm” of the UAFF, which was synonymous with the US branch of the OUN-B’s information service that shared its headquarters with a Stepan Bandera museum in London. Haidamakha proudly described the CUSUR’s annual conferences in Washington as the work of “Bandera nationalists and the patriotic sections of the Ukrainian [American] community.”
Petro Paluch, the UAFF treasurer who took advantage of Mykola Bojczuk in 2002, served on the steering committee that organized CUSUR’s main event that year. So did a pair of ex-Prolog staffers: Nadia Diuk and Adrian Karatnycky, the president of Freedom House, which sponsored the event along with the National Endowment for Democracy’s Democratic and Republican party affiliates. Over two decades, Karatnycky and Alexander Motyl, another veteran of Prolog and the CDSPP, have been recurring speakers at CUSUR conferences. I’ve even seen Karatnycky hanging out with Walter Zaryckyj, the UAFF president since 2018, who has led the CUSUR since its inception. So I’ve been curious about this convergence of Banderites and the Prolog crowd, and find it very intriguing that someone else who “worked closely” with that CIA front group conspired with the UAFF to defraud Bojczuk.
In 2004, the Superior Court of New Jersey ruled in favor of Stefan Bojczuk, and threw out the 2002 will. A year later, after fighting another lawsuit from Bojczuk, the UAFF “agreed to pay the estate $40,000 to settle a tortious interference claim.” In that time, instead of inheriting millions, the UAFF also paid $57,173.56 to Myroslaw Smorodsky; $29,231.47 to a tax attorney and consultants hired by Smorodsky; $66,226.00 in additional legal bills for UAFF members who approached Bojczuk; and some additional expenses for a grand total of $195,383.01. According to the UAFF’s tax filing in 2005, it ran a deficit of more than $250,000 in the past fiscal year.
At the “11th Great Assembly” of OUN-B, which apparently took place in 2005, Haidamakha was “re-elected” to a second term as Providnyk (Leader). Meanwhile the “Main Directorate” of the Bandera Organization established a commission to investigate the UAFF’s botched handling of Bojczuk. Three OUN-B members were appointed to the investigative committee: Irene Mycak, the head of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress’ National Holodomor Awareness Committee; Michael Koziupa, the president of another Banderite front group based in New York; and Volodymyr Karpynets, who at some point served as the financial officer of the OUN-B “Land Leadership in Great Britain,” and passed away less than a month ago.
In the spring of 2009, after the “12th Great Assembly” saw Stefan Romaniw of Australia ascend the Banderite throne, the Main Directorate canceled the work of the commission, and tasked its chief financial officer, “Tadej Mirnyj,” to write a final report on the Bojczuk affair. “Mirnyj,” evidently, is another name for Petro Lapczak, the chairman of the London branch of the Association of Ukrainians in Great Britain, who I’ve previously said is allegedly one of the British Banderites that oversees the international “OUN Fund,” which the UAFF represents in the United States. Lapczak acknowledged that the execution of the 2002 will “cannot be claimed to have taken place in transparent normal conditions.” He also noted that Theodore Oleshchuk, who chaired the UAFF until 2006, failed to cooperate with the commission. Lapczak put the blame on Oleshchuk, Paluch, and other UAFF representatives known to have been in the loop, but not the foundation itself.
“Report of the ND [Main Directorate] Commission on the Activities of the Volya Foundation [UAFF] and the Inheritence of Mykola Bojczuk” (2009)
Because Oleshchuk and Paluch allegedly worked in secret from some UAFF board members, their scheme was “not a consequence of the decision of the Volya Foundation,” which is the Ukrainian name of the UAFF. That being said, Petro Lapczak did not recommend any actions against those he held responsible, just that they compensate the UAFF for its legal bills, and that the OUN-B leadership should “contribute to improving and consolidating the future activities of the foundation.” (Oleshchuk, a former “Land Leader of America,” remained on the UAFF board until 2018.) Furthermore, he recommended that “consideration be given to the consolidation of the internal mechanism for retaining the leadership of the Volya Foundation in the hands of the TPA [‘Land Leadership of America’]” when the latter comes under new management.
Epilogue: Banderite Feud in NYC
Stefan Kaczurak (right) with far-right Ukrainian politician Andriy Parubiy during one of his visits to New York City
In 2013-17, Stefan Kaczurak was the deputy head of the OUN-B in the United States and the financial officer of the “Land Leadership of America” (TPA, Terenovoho Provodu Ameryky), while at the same time serving as the treasurer of the Ukrainian American Freedom Foundation and the president of the OUN-B’s Organization for the Defense of Four Freedoms of Ukraine (ODFFU). He also managed the Banderite headquarters building in Manhattan, which is technically owned by ODFFU. In the United States, Kaczurak was evidently the real power behind the throne in those days.
Around 2016, “to better secure the property” in New York, the U.S. leadership of OUN-B decided to create a new ODFFU-affiliated foundation which would take control of the organization’s most valuable asset. But before that could be accomplished, the TPA and UAFF came under new management, which organized a rival ODFFU board of directors that almost instantly appointed Askold Lozynskyj as the new building manager. Lozynskyj, the Banderite lawyer accused of getting rich by taking advantage of Ukrainian immigrants who hired him to prepare their wills, was an architect of the ODFFU takeover.
The OUN-B’s legally dubious “extraordinary convention” of ODFFU on September 28, 2019, denounced as a coup d’etat by the existing board of directors, prompted the anonymous complaint to the New York State Attorney General’s office that morning, which immediately got back to the Banderites. “Please be advised that someone in the SK [Stefan Kaczurak] camp (we can only surmise) has pulled a defamatory trigger on our entire community,” Walter Zaryckyj warned his colleagues later that day. “Please keep all of this in mind when contemplating the results of any attempted reconciliation btw the legitimate forces in ODFFU (seeking reform) and the forces constituting the existing ODFFU BOD (seeking more of the same)!!”
On February 24, 2017, an alleged “grey cardinal” of the OUN-B sent a letter to the leading members of the Banderite network in the United States. This was Bohdan Harhaj of New York, who complained about the ineffectiveness of the TPA and UAFF since they came under new management in 2013-14. Harhaj seemed to hint that when he led the UAFF (2007-13), he also chaired the TPA. Now his successors appeared to be “sleeping in a blissful dream!” Although Harhaj remained on the UAFF board of directors, along with other prominent OUN-B members (Theodore Oleshchuk, Bohdan Fedorak, and Pavlo Bandriwsky), they were allegedly shut out of the decision-making process. The situation was reversed in the next year, after Walter Zaryckyj became the new chairman of the TPA and UAFF. As for Stefan Kaczurak, his side of the story seems to be reflected in a 2016 TPA report, which explained that the “Volya Foundation” (UAFF) is the “financial wing” of the “Land Leadership.”
The board of the Volya Foundation, according to the original tradition, was deliberately appointed by the Land Leader of America after each Grand Assembly. The composition of the foundation’s board mirrored the executive of the TPA, which strategically includes 2 members who are responsible for specific programs of the foundation … Currently, the Volya Foundation consists of 7 members of the organization (left over from the previous TPA), but this does not reflect the current TPA executive as it should. This sometimes makes it difficult to carry out certain work at the organizational and, most importantly, at the public level due to personal reasons. Thanks to the majority vote, we are able to resolve financial transactions/difficulties. It should be emphasized that thanks to friend Dovbush [Stefan Kaczurak] and mainly friend Sun [Helen Turyk], everything is done with great difficulty but in a professional manner - in accordance with government requirements.
Helen Turyk, who replaced Peter Paluch as the UAFF treasurer in 2006 and became the ODFFU bookkeeper in 2010, at first resisted the 2019 “coup,” but she joined the winning side after Askold Lozynskyj and company seized the building in Manhattan. The “Kaczurak camp” allegedly wanted things to be clean and above-board in their clandestine Banderite network—and to curtail what they might have called its criminal elements. Their OUN-B rivals would howl at that sentence. Walter Zaryckyj, for example, has declared that Kaczurak is going to jail.
Under Kaczurak’s management of the Banderite building, the UAFF and Center for US-Ukrainian Relations were evicted for non-payment of rent. The 2019 complaint declared that Walter Zaryckyj and his CUSUR sidekick Mykola Hryckowian “were expelled from the NYC Ukrainian community for fraud, lying, stealing and many other things.” As for Hryckowian, “Several times he was caught stealing the money donated by the [ODFFU] membership during Christmas caroling fund raising, called Koliada, and other donations.” (Traditionally, this is the main source of income for the TPA.) The international Bojczukgate commission even found Hryckowian to be partially responsible for that fiasco twenty years ago. In 2019, the Banderites installed him as the ODFFU president.
Theodore Oleshchuk, the former “Land Leader of America” who chaired the UAFF during the Bojczuk affair, passed away as the Banderite feud for control of the ODFFU and its headquarters building spilled into court. Just over a year before the “coup,” and his death, Oleshchuk was removed from the UAFF leadership, along with Kaczurak and its former president. Ironically, Kaczurak’s “old board” of ODFFU, which allegedly opposed the “criminal element” in OUN-B, was reconstituted in 2020 under the leadership of Dmitri Lenczuk, Oleshchuk’s grandson in New Jersey. Serhii Kuzan, a former rising star of OUN-B in Ukraine, who also seemed to part ways with the Bandera Organization in 2019, befriended the Oleshchuk-Lenczuk family during the Kaczurak years. He indicated support for the “Kaczurak camp” in ODFFU, which got steamrolled by the OUN-B, but the Kuzan team appears to be poised for a comeback, and that could turn the tables in New York again.
Stefan Kaczurak and Serhii Kuzan at the Banderite summer camp in Ellenville, New York with the OUN-B newspaper published by UAFF until 2018
Even if that should come to pass, evidently it is not so simple for the “Land Leadership of America” to appoint a new board of the Ukrainian American Freedom Foundation. That was a problem for the TPA in the Kaczurak years, and the OUN-B commission that investigated the Bojczuk affair, because the Banderites formed a new TPA in 2004, but it took 2-3 years to install a more cooperative UAFF board.
Since the ODFFU conflict erupted (2019), and the next “Grand Assembly” took place in Ukraine (2022), it seems likely that the OUN-B would have established another commission to investigate the uproar in New York. Just so that an especially shady clique of Banderites from the Ukrainian diaspora can declare (to quote Walter Zaryckyj), “We have plenary power” in the U.S. network, UAFF leaders have undoubtedly burned far more OUN-B resources on lawyers, and jeopardized losing their Manhattan building altogether after the Supreme Court of New York County appointed a receiver to take over the property.
Indeed, there are echoes of the Bojczuk affair in this conflict. Take for example Bohdan Shandor, another two-time president of the Ukrainian American Bar Association (1982-84, 2019-20). According to Myron Swidersky’s 2007 report, Mykola Bojczuk had agreed to meet with Shandor in 2001 to discuss “the eventual registration of his property to the Volya Foundation [UAFF] and to create a corporation under the foundation, of which M. Bojczuk would be the chairman.” Supposedly Bojczuk, at 88 years old, agreed to this at a meeting with Bohdan Shandor and UAFF treasurer Petro Paluch in 2001, but negotiations broke down after “an unpleasant fight” about Shandor’s bill. As the old man’s health deteriorated, the Banderites got a new lawyer, Myron Smorodsky, and Shandor went running to Stefan Bojczuk to give him legal advice about fending off the UAFF.
In 2020, Bohdan Shandor worked on Donald Trump’s re-election campaign, which had a “Ukrainians for Trump” group closely tied to the Palatine, Illinois branch of ODFFU that appears to have hosted the controversial “extraordinary convention” in 2019. Shandor subsequently became one of the lawyers hired by the “new board” of ODFFU that put Askold Lozynskyj, an advisor to “Ukrainian Americans for Biden,” in charge of the OUN-B building in Manhattan. “This cabal, that’s what I’ll call them,” Shandor told an ODFFU convention in October 2022, outlining a conspiracy “that Mr. Kaczurak and others working with him, starting in 2008, began a plan of action whereby they would seize control” of the Banderite headquarters. And “according to the most recent real estate appraisals that I’ve seen,” this property in New York was valued “in excess of 30 million dollars”—roughly the size of the Bojczuk estate.
Thanks for reading. This story will be continued as we explore another angle of the Banderite feud in the New York area: “The Battle of the Banks” in “Little Ukraine,” Manhattan. If you want to support my work, you can “Buy Me a Coffee.” Also, if you live in New York, or visit soon, I’m still offering “Hidden History of Little Ukraine” tours.
1The Vietnam war, according to Roman Kupchinsky, was “a classroom where I studied Ukrainian nationalism, as a result of which I began to see the Vietnamese enemy in a different light.” In the 1980s, the Justice Department’s Nazi-hunting Office of Special Investigations began to pursue Mykola Lebed. The CIA managed to protect him behind the scenes, but for good measure, Kupchinsky publicly led a lonely campaign on his behalf. In those days, he predicted, “If, someday in the future, the United States ever comes to rely upon Soviet evidence to try American ‘war criminals’ of the Vietnam War, I shall no doubt figure on some list given by the Vietnamese government to the Justice Department, and thirty Vietnamese ‘witnesses’ will come forward to identify me as a murderer of women and children in some hamlet.” In 2008, he struck a different tone, “begging the Lord forgiveness for my acts against his children — the ‘Gooks’...”
https://banderalobby.substack.com/p/boychukgate
*****
Cries for help
Cries for help
After the attacks on nuclear weapons, as well as statements about the mobilization of women, Zelensky decided to attack the need for NATO to prepare brigades for the war in Ukraine, since "Ukrainian brigades are tired."
These statements are in fact cries for help. The situation at the front is deteriorating, losses are growing, the risk of new operational crises is increasing.
Hence the talk about "it is necessary to create conditions for ending the war in 3 months", which implies a more obvious involvement of NATO in the war. Because there is an understanding that in 3 months the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be in a much worse situation. And the brigades are really tired.
Therefore, inertial scenarios guarantee the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces under all current inputs. Therefore, new inputs are needed - a direct attack with NATO weapons from the territory of Ukraine to the entire strategic depth, a direct introduction of NATO troops, the transfer of nuclear weapons under the guise of development, etc.
All this is necessary because the usual scenarios no longer promise to save the Zelensky regime, which, of course, is not beneficial to those who were behind all this from the beginning. Therefore, demands for escalation are cries for help, including by starting a global nuclear war. These are signs of despair that contrast with the growing demands in the world to end the war unleashed by the West and their puppet.
Russia, in this regard, needs to be prepared for escalation scenarios and continue to achieve results on the front, as this is the best way to achieve the desired goals of the war and ensure Russia a worthy place in the future world order, where Zelensky will have no place.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9445631.html
Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V
Geopolitical factors
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/19/2024
Since the spring of 2014, with the accession of Crimea to Russia and the start of the war in Donbass with the decree of the anti-terrorist operation , the Ukrainian conflict has been defined by a triple aspect with an internal factor of civil war between Donetsk and Lugansk against Kiev, another linked to the confrontation between Ukraine and the Russian Federation over the question of Crimea and the territorial arrangement of the People's Republics and a power struggle in Europe that affected Moscow and the Western capitals. It was not only the presence of foreign soldiers - Croatians or Georgians on the Ukrainian side, Russians and Serbians on the Russian side and different factions of Chechen groups on both - or the assumption of Russian participation in the fighting that internationalised the war.
The different negotiation formats that have taken place over the last decade also bear witness to the weight of the opinion of Ukraine's international allies in the process. Even before kyiv decided to use the military route to resolve the political problem of Donbass, the Geneva negotiations involved European countries, the United States and Russia, with a large role for the then Secretary of State John Kerry and Minister Sergey Lavrov. The two Minsk agreements were also negotiated with the support of Germany and France, whose heads of state or government were present at the marathon negotiations of February 2015, with which Angela Merkel believed she had found the formula to de-escalate the conflict. From that attempt was born the Normandy Format, which failed like all the other negotiation forums. Long before the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine was trying to compensate for its fragility with external support, the only way to counteract the position of weakness indicated by the front, where kyiv had not been able to defeat the DPR and LPR, in order to try to impose an end to the war that was closer to the victor's peace than to the actual outcome of the conflict.
The Russian invasion in February 2022 not only changed the nature and intensity of the war, but also increased Western dependence on Ukraine, which was no longer limited to diplomatic support against Russia and the weight of loans from international institutions in the economy, but became the only way to sustain the Ukrainian state and make it possible for the Armed Forces to continue fighting. Judging by the statements of all those familiar with the negotiations - David Arajamia, Naftali Bennet, Gerhard Schoeder or Victoria Nuland - even the Istanbul process, the only one in which no Western country was directly present in the negotiations, the weight of the opinion of Western countries, especially the United States, was one of the factors why diplomacy did not succeed and war has remained until now the only possible way to resolve the conflict. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy's tracking , from February 2022 to August 31 of this year, Ukraine has received a total of $221.5 billion ($114.79 billion in military assistance, $90.59 billion in financial assistance and $16.17 billion in humanitarian assistance), a good reflection of the significant economic and military dependence on Kiev.
The presentation of the Victory Plan in the Rada , a series of steps to achieve Ukraine's goals, aimed primarily at its allies, was not limited to recounting the five basic points and the material and economic requirements to achieve them, but was framed in a very concrete analysis of the state of international relations. The precarious situation of Ukraine, dependent on its partners to continue aspiring to fulfill its scarcely realistic military plans, requires even more assistance. To this end, Ukraine has used indiscriminately, and sometimes simultaneously, the argument of the promise of a victory against the common enemy and the danger of defeat, which would open the door to a possible Russian aggression against NATO countries such as the Baltic states or Poland. The dynamics of the war undermine any credibility in either argument: even the Pentagon sees the recovery of the 1991 borders as impossible, which would mean complete Russian defeat, and only an unforeseeable Ukrainian collapse could make Russia march east of the Dnieper River, approach Odessa or, even less, kyiv, Ternopil, Lviv or Mukachevo. Russia is trying to avoid a confrontation with NATO countries at all costs and has kept open communication with the United States precisely to avoid such a scenario. The wear and tear of the war, widely exaggerated by Ukraine, but undoubtedly important, makes this scenario even more unviable.
In recent months, Ukraine has sought a way to raise awareness of the Russian threat and highlight its importance beyond simply dwelling on the situation on the front. Military setbacks, the failure of the 2022 ground counteroffensive, and the clear loss of prominence due to war fatigue and Israel’s competition for US attention have forced kyiv to seek a framework in which the Ukrainian front is presented as the central element of a war that, as Ben Hodges, former commander general of the US Army in Europe, has stated, “is about much more than just Ukraine.” In line with this idea, Zelensky stated in Brussels that “the objective of the [Victory] Plan is to strengthen not only Ukraine, but our entire Euro-Atlantic community.” Above all, according to the Ukrainian president, “Ukraine is a democratic nation that has proven that it can defend the Euro-Atlantic region and our common way of life.” To do so, impoverished Ukraine needs, of course, more weapons and funding to defend itself on its territory and attack Russian soil. Without the capacity of its own to produce or pay for the material for such a war, Zelensky presents the country not as a shield and guarantee, but simply as cannon fodder.
Now Zelensky has upped the ante, trying to take advantage of international tensions to get more help, to get closer to his American partners, on whom the flow of arms depends, by claiming to be fighting two common enemies, Iran and the People’s Republic of Korea, and trying to put himself on the same level as Israel in terms of the hierarchy of allies. “Putin wants to match the production of ammunition of your countries next year,” Zelensky said, adding that “he is receiving help from North Korea, which sells him shells, equipment and now even people.” This week, the Kremlin confirmed that the new security treaty between Moscow and Pyongyang includes collective security clauses, opening the door to the participation of soldiers in the event that one of the two countries is attacked. According to Ukrainian and South Korean military intelligence, neither of which is impartial on this issue, 12,000 North Korean soldiers have been transferred to Russia for military training. Whether or not the news is true, it is clear that these troops have not reached the front. The Ukrainian press has already begun to see North Korean troops among the Buryat women, a common target of racist attacks, and even dozens of desertions. Fake news spreads faster than real news, and any rumour is enough to demand more support. “Obviously, in such circumstances, our relations with partners need to develop further.” In other words, Ukraine demands more weapons.
However, weapons, funding and NATO membership are not Ukraine’s only military demands. “The United States deployed an advanced air defence system and dozens of troops this week to protect Israel from Iranian ballistic missiles, but there is nothing like that level of help for Ukraine, even though it faces daily Russian attacks with drones, missiles and bombs. In Kiev, this is considered a double standard,” writes Politico in its opening of an article in which it collects the hypocrisy of which Ukraine accuses the United States. “If allies shot down missiles together in the skies of the Middle East, why is it that the decision has not been taken to shoot down drones and missiles over Ukraine?” Zelensky has repeatedly asked himself recently. The article also includes the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine after the intervention of the United States, the United Kingdom and other allies in defense of Israel. “We call on Ukraine’s allies to defend Ukrainian airspace from Russian drone and missile attacks with the same determination and without hesitation, recognizing that human life is equally precious in all parts of the world,” said the Ukrainian message, which did not show any special interest in condemning the Israeli drones and bombs that have killed more civilians in one year than in the entire Russian-Ukrainian war. “The harsh answer that Ukrainians may not want to hear but which is unfortunately true is that we can risk shooting down Iranian missiles over Israel without causing a direct war with Tehran that could lead to a nuclear war,” Politico said , citing a source in the US Senate. Added to this reality is the fact that Israel is considered a strategic ally, while Ukraine aspires to be one in the future. This is what the Ukrainian discourse is working towards.
“The acronym CRINK is rapidly spreading in the expert community. It refers to an “aggressive strategic cartel” in which Russia, Iran and North Korea are legally present,” Mikhail Podolyak wrote on Thursday, inventing both the popularity of the acronym and its official status. In this imaginary group there are, “ de facto and informally, a few other countries with rich resources. It (the cartel) is emerging as a new global threat to the West, as the Axis and Warsaw Pact countries were in the past. The war in Ukraine revealed the military and industrial incapacity of the Russian Federation, forcing its accomplices to provide it with substantial aid. This mobilized the alliance, which moved from creating regional threats (Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Pacific) to attacking the world order. Such an attack, previously unthinkable, is now possible thanks to the sharing of missile, aircraft and submarine technologies within CRINK.” Curiously, in describing this new version of Bush’s axis of evil mixed with that of the Cold War, Podolyak forgets to mention the first letter, the C of China, a country that Ukraine does not want to alienate and that naively aspires to separate from Russia, today its strategic ally. “Unfortunately, we have clear intelligence that shows that China is actively helping Russia to prolong this war,” said Zelensky of the country that jointly sponsors with Brazil an initiative to stop the war and proceed immediately to negotiations, precisely the scenario that Ukraine wants to avoid and in which it would find itself in a position of weakness that not even the presence of its allies could compensate. For the moment, demanding weapons from its allies and presenting itself as the central point on which international relations revolve and where the world’s drift towards conflict – or towards the loss of Western hegemony – can be stopped remains more profitable for Kiev, which clings to Ben Hodges’ definition of conflict. The war in Ukraine is “about defending the concepts of sovereignty, freedom of navigation, international law and agreements, isolating Iran… and containing China.”
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/19/facto ... politicos/
Google Translator
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Since the beginning of the Central Military District, three main methods of conducting assault operations have been established. All of them are characterized by two main features. The first feature is the lack of direct contact with the enemy. As a rule, before the start of a small-arms battle, you need to move several kilometers to the enemy. The second feature is poor artillery performance. Artillery is not directly involved in the preparation and support of troops in combat.
It is worth dwelling separately on the use of FPV drones. They are widely used by both sides. They are often used as an anti-tank weapon, as a heavy infantry weapon, instead of direct support artillery. The general rule has become the broadcast of the progress of the battle directly to the displays of the battalion (regiment) commander.
The first method involves unnoticed penetration of the enemy's battle formations and an attack on his position on the move. As a rule, assault groups of 4-6 people attack the positions of a squad of 4-8 people. After the position is captured, its defense is organized, which can last 1-2 days, after which the position is secured by the main body of the unit.
The second method is a sudden attack on the position using mobile vehicles (motorcycles, ATVs) and is based on surprise. As a rule, the enemy attack is carried out at a distance that excludes the use of foot units. In general, the principle of attack is the same as for foot units, but the infantry is better armed with heavy weapons.
The third method is the use of mobile standard armored vehicles (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, other armored vehicles). Tanks (1-2 units, 3 - much less often) go at the head of the column, engage in continuous minesweeping and fire at identified targets. As a rule, the target is a platoon or company strongpoint. Heavy infantry weapons are widely used here (ATGM, AGS, large-caliber machine guns, automatic cannons). As a rule, artillery provides fire support for the attack by firing at newly identified targets with 1-4 guns.
Each method has many features that should not be disclosed in this post. Many methods flow smoothly into each other.
@Viktor_Murakhovskiy
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Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the attempted invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk Region (as of October 19, 2024) The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue operations to defeat the enemy group that has penetrated into the territory of the Kursk Region. - Units of the North group of forces continued offensive operations, during which they defeated the formations of the 22nd , 47th and 115th mechanized , 82nd and 95th airborne assault brigades , the 36th marine brigade , as well as the 103rd and 129th territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Kolmakov, Kruglenkoye, Nizhny Klin, Nikolsky, Novy Put, Olgovka, Plekhovo, Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Over the past 24 hours, the group's units repelled an enemy counterattack in the area of the village of Leonidove. - Army aviation strikes and artillery fire destroyed concentrations of manpower and equipment of the 17th Tank , 41st , 47th and 61st Mechanized , 80th Airborne Assault Brigades , as well as the 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the villages of Darino, Zhuravka, Kruglenkoye, Lebedevka, Oleshnya, Olgovka, Porechnoye and Sverdlikovo. - Operational-tactical aviation and missile forces struck the areas of concentration in the Sumy region and reserves of the 22nd , 61st mechanized , 17th tank , 115th assault , 95th airborne assault brigades , as well as the 101st , 103rd, 112th and 129th territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Basovka, Belovody, Belokopytovo, Vodolaghi, Pavlovka, Revyakino and Studenok. Over the past 24 hours, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 270 people, 9 armored vehicles were destroyed, including three infantry fighting vehicles, an armored personnel carrier, five armored combat vehicles, as well as four guns and three cars. - In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 24,740 servicemen, 167 tanks, 82 infantry fighting vehicles, 102 armored personnel carriers, 957 armored combat vehicles, 654 vehicles, 204 artillery pieces, 38 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including nine HIMARS and six MLRS made in the United States, nine anti-aircraft missile system launchers, five transport and loading vehicles, 48 electronic warfare stations, ten counter-battery radars, three air defense radars, 22 units of engineering and other equipment, including 13 engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit , as well as three armored repair and recovery vehicles.
The operation to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces formations continues.
***
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 19 October 2024) Main points :
- The Zapad group repelled three counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in one day, the enemy lost more than 350 soldiers;
- The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the zone of the East group of forces in one day amounted to 115 soldiers;
- The Russian Air Defense Forces shot down three HIMARS MLRS projectiles and 31 Ukrainian drones in one day;
- The Center group of forces defeated six enemy brigades, whose losses in one day amounted to 460 soldiers;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 830 soldiers and two Anklav-N electronic warfare stations in one day in the zone of the South group;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 55 soldiers in one day in the area of responsibility of the North group;
- The Russian Armed Forces defeated fuel and energy complex facilities and airfields of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Units of the "East" group of forces improved their tactical position. The 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 127th Territorial Defense Brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Dobrovolye and Shakhtarskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 115 servicemen, two vehicles, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Paladin" made in the USA, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Caesar" made in France, and a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Bogdana" .
Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 150th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , the 34th Marine Brigade , the 121st , 124th Territorial Defense Brigades and the 3rd National Guard Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Lobkovoe in the Zaporizhia region, Ilyinka in the Dnipropetrovsk region, Prydniprovskoe, Gavrilovka and Korabelov Island in the Kherson region.
The enemy's losses amounted to 50 servicemen and five vehicles.
Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged fuel and energy infrastructure facilities used in the interests of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, airfields, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 138 areas.
Air defense systems shot down three US-made HIMARS rockets and 31 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,824 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,735 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,477 multiple launch rocket systems, 16,372 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 27,407 special military vehicles.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
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THE DEBATE – THE GENERAL STAFF V THE KREMLIN, JOHN HELMER V GILBERT DOCTOROW
by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with
“The winners of the war are the Russian General Staff. Everyone in Russia understands that the Russian Army is winning and will win this war…I believe Gilbert is wrong on the history of the negotiations that have gone on since before this war began… It’s [Russian] military protection that guarantees [Ukrainian] permanent neutrality… Second, I think that Gilbert is wrong on the foundation of policy…The US policy does not date when Gilbert has put it from Madeleine Albright [US Secretary of State 1997-2001]…US policy since 1945 has been to destroy Russia and prevent Russia from ever forming a kind of partnership with Germany in Europe. If such a German-Russian partnership post-war were to develop, that would end US control of Europe… This is not a neocon invention. It goes back to non-Ukrainian, non-Jewish decision makers during World War II in the United States…Thirdly, Gilbert is wrong on method…What Gilbert is saying is that he watches Russian television talk shows… This is an absurd method for understanding either President Putin’s role in the command structure, or the General Staff’s role, or what the future security of Russia is required to be in a settlement…Who takes seriously the Rupert Murdoch approach to truth – you don’t read the London Times or Fox News to determine what is true. Therefore, the notion that we should watch Russian television with that group of talk show presenters as an example of what is the truth of Russian debate is inappropriate.”
“I’m sorry, Gilbert is well-meaning but we are not talking about Doctorow — we are talking about Doctor Zero…If we don’t settle the outcome of the war according to Russia’s security needs now, by the time there is the next [Russian] presidential election, there will be more war.”
“The issue isn’t what [President Vladimir] Zelensky says publicly. The major security threat for Russia is in the secret annexes [of the Ukrainian ‘Victory Plan’]…What went into the US secret annex in Greece [1981-87] was the deployment of US nuclear weapons aimed at Moscow…Secret annexes mean secret weapons, secret deployments, and dual-capable bombs, missiles and warheads…We know we are back in the world of nuclear targeting on Russia…That brings us back to the general problem – what’s US policy toward Russia? Can anything, anything a US administration ever offer Russia be trusted unless the Russian Army is in place? And that brings us back to the Gorbachev treason, repeated as the Yeltsin treason. No Russian president — no Russian president can repeat those two things. The Russian Army won’t tolerate it, and neither will the Russian people…Without the Russian Army, the signature of the US on an agreement is worthless.”
Listen to the full 90-minute podcast here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV0FhnePgYk
https://johnhelmer.net/the-debate-the-g ... more-90463
Ouch! Point to Helmer, who I consider the best authority on Russia.
Listening to this I've lost some of the limited respect I had for Doctorow. He's a whiner.
Helmer's dissertation on the Russian General Staff should get kudos from Andrei Martyanov.
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Russia Matters: West, Kyiv Ponder Peace Deal That Would Defer Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity, Allow It to Join NATO
October 17, 2024 natyliesb
Russia Matters, 10/15/24
“There is talk behind closed doors” in Western capitals of a deal in which “Moscow retains de facto control over… one-fifth of Ukraine it has occupied—though Russia’s sovereignty is not recognized—while the rest of the country is allowed to join NATO or given equivalent security guarantees,” according to FT editors. “Under that umbrella, it could rebuild and integrate with the EU, akin to West Germany in the Cold War,” they write. Some of these discussions are echoed in Kyiv, according to Der Spiegel. “For the first time since the Russian invasion in February 2022, the Ukrainian capital is seriously discussing scenarios in which the country foregoes the complete reconquest of its occupied territories, almost 20% of Ukrainian territory, for the time being,” this German outlet reports. According to Robert Kagan of Brookings, however, a stable peaceful resolution of the conflict is unlikely because Putin will assume that the West will keep arming Ukraine even if a deal is reached. “Unless something dramatic changes, this is a war that, like most wars, will be won or lost on the battlefield… Americans need to decide soon whether they are prepared to let Ukraine lose,” Kagan writes in WP.
Requests for more weapons and security guarantees by the West, which Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to refer to when briefing the Rada leadership on his victory plan on Oct. 16, have so far received a tepid response by the Biden administration, according to WSJ. In their comments on the plan, U.S. officials have pointed out that it repackages some of Ukraine’s earlier requests for arms and noted that members of NATO are divided about whether to offer Ukraine a formal invitation to join, WSJ reported. Ukrainians are increasingly exhausted by the war, and polls show an incremental increase in the number of Ukrainians prepared for negotiations, according to this U.S. newspaper.
The fall of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region would leave the Ukrainian military without a key logistics hub for operations in eastern Ukraine, and it could serve as Russia’s gateway to conquering the rest of that region, according to Keith Johnson of FP. Moreover, “Pokrovsk’s fall could have an even more insidious impact on Ukraine’s ability to keep fighting: The city is the source of most of the coal used for the country’s steel and iron industry” which is the second-largest sector of the Ukrainian economy, according to Johnson. Without Pokrovsk’s mine, “the country’s remaining steel industry will be crippled,” according to The Economist.
“Russian forces proved more flexible and effective in the conduct of defensive operations in 2023 through a combination of maneuver and positional defense,” according to Michael Kofman of CEIP. Despite these adaptations, however, the Russian army’s assaults on Ukraine’s prepared defenses led to grinding battles. “The net effect was incremental Russian gains at high cost, as Russian forces proved unable to attain operationally significant breakthroughs when possessing quantitative advantages in manpower, materiel and munition,” according to Kofman. However, “[w]hat was true in 2023 may not hold for 2024, and beyond,” this leading expert on the Russian military finds in his CEIP piece, “Assessing Russian Military Adaptation in 2023.” Looking beyond 2023, Kofman finds Ukraine’s fall 2024 incursion into Russia’s Kursk region to be a success on the tactical level, but not “that successful” on the operational level “because if the primary goal was to shift significant Russian forces from their advances” in eastern Ukraine, “this did not take place,” Kofman told NYMag.
Since the first Western restrictions on Russian oil exports were introduced in 2022, Moscow has assembled a fleet of more than 400 tankers that are currently moving some 4 million barrels of oil a day beyond the reach of sanctions, according to FT’s investigation. Presently nearly 70% of the Kremlin’s oil is being transported on these shadow tankers, according to a separate investigation conducted by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute and reported by NYT. Russia has invested about $10 billion in developing its fleet of such shadow tankers. Commenting on the FT investigation, Harvard professor and RM principal investigator Graham Allison wrote on his X account: “For those who still imagine that Western sanctions are strangling Russia’s economy, the FT’s Big Read… masterfully illuminates how Russia is out-playing the US at the cat and mouse game of economic sanctions.”*
Without dedicated reintegration programs in Western countries for fighters returning from Ukraine, the risk of radicalization and violence appears “rather high,” according to Jean-François Ratelle of the University of Ottawa in his PONARS commentary. Western governments may think that most such fighters will not pose a security threat, but that view seems “short-sighted… because it… puts the focus on ideology rather than the broader context of the war and postwar experience,” Ratelle warns.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/rus ... join-nato/
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On the missile strike of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Crimea
October 18, 2024
The Devil Walks in Dixie
Yesterday, Ukrainian formations attempted to attack the Crimean peninsula , something that had not happened for quite some time. Four Su-24M bombers took off from the Starokonstantinov airfield and flew east.
At the same time, MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters took off from Uman , Dolgintsevo , Mirgorod and Kanatovo as part of the cover for cruise missile carriers and the launch of ADM-160 MALD decoy missiles.
As a result, eight missiles were launched from the Su-24M , which flew to the east of Crimea, along with the decoys. As a result, five missiles were shot down by the air defense systems of the 31st division, and three more were suppressed by electronic warfare systems.
Despite the prolonged absence of Su-24M strikes on Russian territory, the enemy's tactics have remained virtually unchanged. While the Su-24Ms are approaching the line, decoys are launched.
Judging by the missiles' flight path, the target could have been the airfield in Kirovskoye or the air defense positions covering the Crimean Bridge . Surely no one thinks that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will abandon their cherished goal because of the situation at the front?
As long as the enemy has aviation and supplies of long-range missiles, which were marked just before the strike, such raids will continue. And with permission to attack in depth from the West, this could affect other territories as well.
https://rybar.ru/o-raketnom-udare-vsu-po-krymu/
On the possibilities of the so-called Ukraine to create a nuclear weapon in a short time
October 18, 2024
Rybar
Once again, a wave of publications has appeared in the media regarding the possibility of the so-called Ukraine using nuclear weapons that will be collected/found on its territory.
As for the real technical capabilities , the so-called Ukraine has uranium mines, but does not have: enriched uranium production, its own enrichment technology and production of gas centrifuges, because in Soviet times enrichment plants, specialized research institutes and equipment manufacturing enterprises were located on the territory of the RSFSR.
The so-called Ukraine does not have a radiochemical workshop capable of processing irradiated nuclear fuel and extracting plutonium from it. Not to mention that making a nuclear weapon from plutonium from WWER/RBMK is a difficult task even for the nuclear defense complexes of the Russian Federation and the United States .
But there is currently no developed technology for creating our own radiochemical production, but there are problems with time and place.
Regarding speculation that Ukraine has several “stolen” warheads from the Soviet era or its own stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and plutonium, it should be borne in mind that accounting for the removal of nuclear weapons from the so-called Ukraine was carried out by both Russia and the United States.
It was a rare example of unanimity between Moscow and Washington: both sides agreed that there should be no nuclear arsenal or delivery vehicles on the territory of the former republic .
Also, the so-called Ukraine joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a country that does not possess nuclear weapons or the industry for their production.
When joining the NPT, each party signs a safeguards agreement with the IAEA , under which the Agency periodically conducts inspections of all nuclear and radiation facilities in the country.
If a country does not allow IAEA inspectors to the requested facility, the Agency openly states this. There were no such statements regarding the so-called Ukraine.
A country's non-nuclear-weapon status under the NPT does not prohibit a country from possessing fissile materials suitable for making nuclear weapons.
Since such materials also have civilian applications, you can possess as much as you like. But you must declare to the IAEA: how much weapons-grade materials you have, how much was produced, where and in what form they are stored, and also report: where, when and how much of them were used, and for what.
This information cannot be kept secret from the IAEA. If some amount of fissile material had "disappeared" from the territory of the so-called Ukraine at some point, this would have become known.
Since there were no facilities engaged in the production of nuclear weapons on the territory of the so-called Ukraine, all stockpiles of weapons materials were at the disposal of scientists engaged in research in the field of nuclear technologies. For example, at the Kharkov Phystech .
The last batch of highly enriched uranium was removed from Ukrainian territory to Russia in March 2012 .
Consequently, the so-called Ukraine does not have the ability to create nuclear weapons due to the lack of stockpiles of weapons materials, the capacity to produce them, and the required technologies.
Based on this, it can be stated with confidence that any nuclear weapon that appears on the territory of this state entity will be of foreign origin .
https://rybar.ru/o-vozmozhnostyah-t-n-u ... oe-vremya/
On the possibilities of the so-called Ukraine to create a nuclear weapon in a short time
October 18, 2024
Rybar
Once again, a wave of publications has appeared in the media regarding the possibility of the so-called Ukraine using nuclear weapons that will be collected/found on its territory.
As for the real technical capabilities , the so-called Ukraine has uranium mines, but does not have: enriched uranium production, its own enrichment technology and production of gas centrifuges, because in Soviet times enrichment plants, specialized research institutes and equipment manufacturing enterprises were located on the territory of the RSFSR.
The so-called Ukraine does not have a radiochemical workshop capable of processing irradiated nuclear fuel and extracting plutonium from it. Not to mention that making a nuclear weapon from plutonium from WWER/RBMK is a difficult task even for the nuclear defense complexes of the Russian Federation and the United States .
But there is currently no developed technology for creating our own radiochemical production, but there are problems with time and place.
Regarding speculation that Ukraine has several “stolen” warheads from the Soviet era or its own stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and plutonium, it should be borne in mind that accounting for the removal of nuclear weapons from the so-called Ukraine was carried out by both Russia and the United States.
It was a rare example of unanimity between Moscow and Washington: both sides agreed that there should be no nuclear arsenal or delivery vehicles on the territory of the former republic .
Also, the so-called Ukraine joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a country that does not possess nuclear weapons or the industry for their production.
When joining the NPT, each party signs a safeguards agreement with the IAEA , under which the Agency periodically conducts inspections of all nuclear and radiation facilities in the country.
If a country does not allow IAEA inspectors to the requested facility, the Agency openly states this. There were no such statements regarding the so-called Ukraine.
A country's non-nuclear-weapon status under the NPT does not prohibit a country from possessing fissile materials suitable for making nuclear weapons.
Since such materials also have civilian applications, you can possess as much as you like. But you must declare to the IAEA: how much weapons-grade materials you have, how much was produced, where and in what form they are stored, and also report: where, when and how much of them were used, and for what.
This information cannot be kept secret from the IAEA. If some amount of fissile material had "disappeared" from the territory of the so-called Ukraine at some point, this would have become known.
Since there were no facilities engaged in the production of nuclear weapons on the territory of the so-called Ukraine, all stockpiles of weapons materials were at the disposal of scientists engaged in research in the field of nuclear technologies. For example, at the Kharkov Phystech .
The last batch of highly enriched uranium was removed from Ukrainian territory to Russia in March 2012 .
Consequently, the so-called Ukraine does not have the ability to create nuclear weapons due to the lack of stockpiles of weapons materials, the capacity to produce them, and the required technologies.
Based on this, it can be stated with confidence that any nuclear weapon that appears on the territory of this state entity will be of foreign origin .
https://rybar.ru/o-vozmozhnostyah-t-n-u ... oe-vremya/
Who and why finances Ukrainian propaganda in the liberated territories?
October 18, 2024
Rybar
The existence of Ukrainian Telegram channels mimicking Russian ones and managed by CIPSO employees is no longer news: we have reviewed specific networks and performers many times before.
However, few people know that work with similar tasks ( propaganda and manipulation, as well as involving Russian citizens in illegal activities ) is also carried out by private companies using money from non-profit organizations.
The work of one of these became known from the report we received from the Center for Political Studies “Doctrine” ( CPS ) on the development of a Ukrainian grant issued by the Partnership for a Strong Ukraine Foundation.
The CPS has created and runs a whole network of channels aimed at promoting pro-Ukrainian narratives among the Russian population.
The documents explicitly state that their goals are:
discrediting Russian information through resources masquerading as pro-Russian;
sowing ethnic hatred and targeting individual ethnic communities ( in particular, the Crimean Tatars are mentioned );
collecting information from eyewitnesses from Russian territory ( i.e., engaging in espionage ).
From the same reporting documents, we learned that it is increasingly difficult for the admins of pro-Ukrainian Telegram channels to do their jobs due to missile strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on energy infrastructure, as well as due to measures taken by Russian authorities to block channels with prohibited content.
It is funny how the CPS was unable to respond to the grant requirement to promote the LGBT agenda ( obviously, this is one of the key requirements of the sponsors ), formulating only a couple of general phrases about the importance of an individual approach to sources and audiences.
It is interesting that the Center is not only engaged in propaganda on the territory of the Russian Federation, but is also engaged in discrediting the Russian presence in Africa . In particular, they are trying to promote information about the destabilizing role of the African Corps in the Sahel and the alleged disruption of grain supplies due to Russian strikes.
It is important that the sponsor of pro-Ukrainian propaganda, the Partnership for a Strong Ukraine Foundation, whose formally stated task is to help the population in the conflict zone, appeared on February 2, 2022 ( 22 days before the start of the NWO ), and its creation was announced by Great Britain and other Western countries back in 2021.
In this case, we can once again see how the infrastructure for NATO's multi-domain operations works . After all, it is through such channels that not only panic is whipped up, but also important intelligence information is collected, which is necessary for adjusting Ukrainian strikes.
This means that residents of new regions, especially in the frontline zone, should be more vigilant to requests and appeals from suspicious resources.
https://rybar.ru/kto-i-zachem-finansiru ... ritoriyah/
(I do not understand why English versions of Rybar images do not 'take'.)
Kursk direction: a dash in the direction of Viktorovka and the liberation of Plekhovo
October 18, 2024
Rybar
In the Kursk region, the Russian Armed Forces are not slowing down the pace of their offensive, methodically driving the enemy out of the Russian settlements they had previously occupied.
In the Glushkovsky district , according to some reports, the Ukrainian Armed Forces retreated from the village of Novy Put and took up positions along the railway line south of the settlement, where they had previously set up a line of defense. At the moment, the area is being cleared. Since the retreating Ukrainian Armed Forces units are abandoning the bodies of their dead soldiers, Russian servicemen are burying them.
In the Korenevsky district, Russian armored groups made a dash in the direction of Viktorovka , going several kilometers into the Ukrainian Armed Forces control zone. Information about the liberation of Novoivanovka was received several days ago, and in Viktorovka itself , fighting has not yet begun. Ukrainian formations are holding positions on the approaches to the village.
Further south, fighting continues in the area of Lyubimovka and Nizhny Klin , where Ukrainian formations find themselves in an unenviable position due to the only possible retreat - through a fairly narrow neck of the "bag" east of Tolsty Lug . Over the past 24 hours, reports have been coming from here about a large number of Ukrainians leaving their positions and surrendering.
In the Sudzhansky district, Russian army fighters are driving the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Plekhovo , where the enemy is also half-encircled. The most optimistic statements have already included information about the liberation of this settlement. In addition, Russian Aerospace Forces aviation and other branches of the military are conducting fire operations against identified areas of concentration of enemy manpower and equipment both in the occupied territories of the Kursk region and in Sumy .
https://rybar.ru/kurskoe-napravlenie-ry ... e-plehovo/
Google Translator
******
Political dead man
The quality of visual campaign materials continues to improve steadily, especially compared to 2022.
(Video at Link. Worth viewing, you don't need Russian to understand, 1 min.)
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9446708.html
About North Koreans
About North Koreans.
1. Their participation in the NWO is not something bad in itself and since the DPRK is now our military ally (officially), then why not.
2. Until DPRK soldiers appear on the front line, for example in the border areas, all this is nothing more than a funny and hype topic.
3. At the moment, the DPRK is not participating in any military actions. It is worth noting that the DPRK has not been at war with anyone since 1953.
4. If the DPRK soldiers are registered as volunteers, then as the US likes to say, "we support, but do not directly participate."
5. So we just wait. Well, and joke a little. Better about the Koreans than about quad bikes.
6. When people start whining that, well, we're inviting foreign volunteers to the SVO, maybe the Koreans will come, it's worth remembering that during the Great Patriotic War, the Polish formations "Armia Ludowa", the French formations "Normandie-Niemen" and the Czechoslovak army corps were part of the Red Army. And not only. By the way, the Koreans were also part of the Red Army at that time, only they were stationed in the Far East and later it was on their base that the formation of the DPRK army began.
7. And readers of LJ know very well that this magazine published complimentary materials about the DPRK long before it became mainstream.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9447595.html
Google Translator
(Russia does not need Korean infantry but I'm sure Korea would appreciate cadre troops getting combat experience,)
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/19/2024
Since the spring of 2014, with the accession of Crimea to Russia and the start of the war in Donbass with the decree of the anti-terrorist operation , the Ukrainian conflict has been defined by a triple aspect with an internal factor of civil war between Donetsk and Lugansk against Kiev, another linked to the confrontation between Ukraine and the Russian Federation over the question of Crimea and the territorial arrangement of the People's Republics and a power struggle in Europe that affected Moscow and the Western capitals. It was not only the presence of foreign soldiers - Croatians or Georgians on the Ukrainian side, Russians and Serbians on the Russian side and different factions of Chechen groups on both - or the assumption of Russian participation in the fighting that internationalised the war.
The different negotiation formats that have taken place over the last decade also bear witness to the weight of the opinion of Ukraine's international allies in the process. Even before kyiv decided to use the military route to resolve the political problem of Donbass, the Geneva negotiations involved European countries, the United States and Russia, with a large role for the then Secretary of State John Kerry and Minister Sergey Lavrov. The two Minsk agreements were also negotiated with the support of Germany and France, whose heads of state or government were present at the marathon negotiations of February 2015, with which Angela Merkel believed she had found the formula to de-escalate the conflict. From that attempt was born the Normandy Format, which failed like all the other negotiation forums. Long before the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine was trying to compensate for its fragility with external support, the only way to counteract the position of weakness indicated by the front, where kyiv had not been able to defeat the DPR and LPR, in order to try to impose an end to the war that was closer to the victor's peace than to the actual outcome of the conflict.
The Russian invasion in February 2022 not only changed the nature and intensity of the war, but also increased Western dependence on Ukraine, which was no longer limited to diplomatic support against Russia and the weight of loans from international institutions in the economy, but became the only way to sustain the Ukrainian state and make it possible for the Armed Forces to continue fighting. Judging by the statements of all those familiar with the negotiations - David Arajamia, Naftali Bennet, Gerhard Schoeder or Victoria Nuland - even the Istanbul process, the only one in which no Western country was directly present in the negotiations, the weight of the opinion of Western countries, especially the United States, was one of the factors why diplomacy did not succeed and war has remained until now the only possible way to resolve the conflict. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy's tracking , from February 2022 to August 31 of this year, Ukraine has received a total of $221.5 billion ($114.79 billion in military assistance, $90.59 billion in financial assistance and $16.17 billion in humanitarian assistance), a good reflection of the significant economic and military dependence on Kiev.
The presentation of the Victory Plan in the Rada , a series of steps to achieve Ukraine's goals, aimed primarily at its allies, was not limited to recounting the five basic points and the material and economic requirements to achieve them, but was framed in a very concrete analysis of the state of international relations. The precarious situation of Ukraine, dependent on its partners to continue aspiring to fulfill its scarcely realistic military plans, requires even more assistance. To this end, Ukraine has used indiscriminately, and sometimes simultaneously, the argument of the promise of a victory against the common enemy and the danger of defeat, which would open the door to a possible Russian aggression against NATO countries such as the Baltic states or Poland. The dynamics of the war undermine any credibility in either argument: even the Pentagon sees the recovery of the 1991 borders as impossible, which would mean complete Russian defeat, and only an unforeseeable Ukrainian collapse could make Russia march east of the Dnieper River, approach Odessa or, even less, kyiv, Ternopil, Lviv or Mukachevo. Russia is trying to avoid a confrontation with NATO countries at all costs and has kept open communication with the United States precisely to avoid such a scenario. The wear and tear of the war, widely exaggerated by Ukraine, but undoubtedly important, makes this scenario even more unviable.
In recent months, Ukraine has sought a way to raise awareness of the Russian threat and highlight its importance beyond simply dwelling on the situation on the front. Military setbacks, the failure of the 2022 ground counteroffensive, and the clear loss of prominence due to war fatigue and Israel’s competition for US attention have forced kyiv to seek a framework in which the Ukrainian front is presented as the central element of a war that, as Ben Hodges, former commander general of the US Army in Europe, has stated, “is about much more than just Ukraine.” In line with this idea, Zelensky stated in Brussels that “the objective of the [Victory] Plan is to strengthen not only Ukraine, but our entire Euro-Atlantic community.” Above all, according to the Ukrainian president, “Ukraine is a democratic nation that has proven that it can defend the Euro-Atlantic region and our common way of life.” To do so, impoverished Ukraine needs, of course, more weapons and funding to defend itself on its territory and attack Russian soil. Without the capacity of its own to produce or pay for the material for such a war, Zelensky presents the country not as a shield and guarantee, but simply as cannon fodder.
Now Zelensky has upped the ante, trying to take advantage of international tensions to get more help, to get closer to his American partners, on whom the flow of arms depends, by claiming to be fighting two common enemies, Iran and the People’s Republic of Korea, and trying to put himself on the same level as Israel in terms of the hierarchy of allies. “Putin wants to match the production of ammunition of your countries next year,” Zelensky said, adding that “he is receiving help from North Korea, which sells him shells, equipment and now even people.” This week, the Kremlin confirmed that the new security treaty between Moscow and Pyongyang includes collective security clauses, opening the door to the participation of soldiers in the event that one of the two countries is attacked. According to Ukrainian and South Korean military intelligence, neither of which is impartial on this issue, 12,000 North Korean soldiers have been transferred to Russia for military training. Whether or not the news is true, it is clear that these troops have not reached the front. The Ukrainian press has already begun to see North Korean troops among the Buryat women, a common target of racist attacks, and even dozens of desertions. Fake news spreads faster than real news, and any rumour is enough to demand more support. “Obviously, in such circumstances, our relations with partners need to develop further.” In other words, Ukraine demands more weapons.
However, weapons, funding and NATO membership are not Ukraine’s only military demands. “The United States deployed an advanced air defence system and dozens of troops this week to protect Israel from Iranian ballistic missiles, but there is nothing like that level of help for Ukraine, even though it faces daily Russian attacks with drones, missiles and bombs. In Kiev, this is considered a double standard,” writes Politico in its opening of an article in which it collects the hypocrisy of which Ukraine accuses the United States. “If allies shot down missiles together in the skies of the Middle East, why is it that the decision has not been taken to shoot down drones and missiles over Ukraine?” Zelensky has repeatedly asked himself recently. The article also includes the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine after the intervention of the United States, the United Kingdom and other allies in defense of Israel. “We call on Ukraine’s allies to defend Ukrainian airspace from Russian drone and missile attacks with the same determination and without hesitation, recognizing that human life is equally precious in all parts of the world,” said the Ukrainian message, which did not show any special interest in condemning the Israeli drones and bombs that have killed more civilians in one year than in the entire Russian-Ukrainian war. “The harsh answer that Ukrainians may not want to hear but which is unfortunately true is that we can risk shooting down Iranian missiles over Israel without causing a direct war with Tehran that could lead to a nuclear war,” Politico said , citing a source in the US Senate. Added to this reality is the fact that Israel is considered a strategic ally, while Ukraine aspires to be one in the future. This is what the Ukrainian discourse is working towards.
“The acronym CRINK is rapidly spreading in the expert community. It refers to an “aggressive strategic cartel” in which Russia, Iran and North Korea are legally present,” Mikhail Podolyak wrote on Thursday, inventing both the popularity of the acronym and its official status. In this imaginary group there are, “ de facto and informally, a few other countries with rich resources. It (the cartel) is emerging as a new global threat to the West, as the Axis and Warsaw Pact countries were in the past. The war in Ukraine revealed the military and industrial incapacity of the Russian Federation, forcing its accomplices to provide it with substantial aid. This mobilized the alliance, which moved from creating regional threats (Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Pacific) to attacking the world order. Such an attack, previously unthinkable, is now possible thanks to the sharing of missile, aircraft and submarine technologies within CRINK.” Curiously, in describing this new version of Bush’s axis of evil mixed with that of the Cold War, Podolyak forgets to mention the first letter, the C of China, a country that Ukraine does not want to alienate and that naively aspires to separate from Russia, today its strategic ally. “Unfortunately, we have clear intelligence that shows that China is actively helping Russia to prolong this war,” said Zelensky of the country that jointly sponsors with Brazil an initiative to stop the war and proceed immediately to negotiations, precisely the scenario that Ukraine wants to avoid and in which it would find itself in a position of weakness that not even the presence of its allies could compensate. For the moment, demanding weapons from its allies and presenting itself as the central point on which international relations revolve and where the world’s drift towards conflict – or towards the loss of Western hegemony – can be stopped remains more profitable for Kiev, which clings to Ben Hodges’ definition of conflict. The war in Ukraine is “about defending the concepts of sovereignty, freedom of navigation, international law and agreements, isolating Iran… and containing China.”
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/19/facto ... politicos/
Google Translator
******
From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Since the beginning of the Central Military District, three main methods of conducting assault operations have been established. All of them are characterized by two main features. The first feature is the lack of direct contact with the enemy. As a rule, before the start of a small-arms battle, you need to move several kilometers to the enemy. The second feature is poor artillery performance. Artillery is not directly involved in the preparation and support of troops in combat.
It is worth dwelling separately on the use of FPV drones. They are widely used by both sides. They are often used as an anti-tank weapon, as a heavy infantry weapon, instead of direct support artillery. The general rule has become the broadcast of the progress of the battle directly to the displays of the battalion (regiment) commander.
The first method involves unnoticed penetration of the enemy's battle formations and an attack on his position on the move. As a rule, assault groups of 4-6 people attack the positions of a squad of 4-8 people. After the position is captured, its defense is organized, which can last 1-2 days, after which the position is secured by the main body of the unit.
The second method is a sudden attack on the position using mobile vehicles (motorcycles, ATVs) and is based on surprise. As a rule, the enemy attack is carried out at a distance that excludes the use of foot units. In general, the principle of attack is the same as for foot units, but the infantry is better armed with heavy weapons.
The third method is the use of mobile standard armored vehicles (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, other armored vehicles). Tanks (1-2 units, 3 - much less often) go at the head of the column, engage in continuous minesweeping and fire at identified targets. As a rule, the target is a platoon or company strongpoint. Heavy infantry weapons are widely used here (ATGM, AGS, large-caliber machine guns, automatic cannons). As a rule, artillery provides fire support for the attack by firing at newly identified targets with 1-4 guns.
Each method has many features that should not be disclosed in this post. Many methods flow smoothly into each other.
@Viktor_Murakhovskiy
***
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the attempted invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk Region (as of October 19, 2024) The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue operations to defeat the enemy group that has penetrated into the territory of the Kursk Region. - Units of the North group of forces continued offensive operations, during which they defeated the formations of the 22nd , 47th and 115th mechanized , 82nd and 95th airborne assault brigades , the 36th marine brigade , as well as the 103rd and 129th territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Kolmakov, Kruglenkoye, Nizhny Klin, Nikolsky, Novy Put, Olgovka, Plekhovo, Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Over the past 24 hours, the group's units repelled an enemy counterattack in the area of the village of Leonidove. - Army aviation strikes and artillery fire destroyed concentrations of manpower and equipment of the 17th Tank , 41st , 47th and 61st Mechanized , 80th Airborne Assault Brigades , as well as the 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the villages of Darino, Zhuravka, Kruglenkoye, Lebedevka, Oleshnya, Olgovka, Porechnoye and Sverdlikovo. - Operational-tactical aviation and missile forces struck the areas of concentration in the Sumy region and reserves of the 22nd , 61st mechanized , 17th tank , 115th assault , 95th airborne assault brigades , as well as the 101st , 103rd, 112th and 129th territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Basovka, Belovody, Belokopytovo, Vodolaghi, Pavlovka, Revyakino and Studenok. Over the past 24 hours, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 270 people, 9 armored vehicles were destroyed, including three infantry fighting vehicles, an armored personnel carrier, five armored combat vehicles, as well as four guns and three cars. - In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 24,740 servicemen, 167 tanks, 82 infantry fighting vehicles, 102 armored personnel carriers, 957 armored combat vehicles, 654 vehicles, 204 artillery pieces, 38 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including nine HIMARS and six MLRS made in the United States, nine anti-aircraft missile system launchers, five transport and loading vehicles, 48 electronic warfare stations, ten counter-battery radars, three air defense radars, 22 units of engineering and other equipment, including 13 engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit , as well as three armored repair and recovery vehicles.
The operation to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces formations continues.
***
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 19 October 2024) Main points :
- The Zapad group repelled three counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in one day, the enemy lost more than 350 soldiers;
- The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the zone of the East group of forces in one day amounted to 115 soldiers;
- The Russian Air Defense Forces shot down three HIMARS MLRS projectiles and 31 Ukrainian drones in one day;
- The Center group of forces defeated six enemy brigades, whose losses in one day amounted to 460 soldiers;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 830 soldiers and two Anklav-N electronic warfare stations in one day in the zone of the South group;
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 55 soldiers in one day in the area of responsibility of the North group;
- The Russian Armed Forces defeated fuel and energy complex facilities and airfields of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Units of the "East" group of forces improved their tactical position. The 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 127th Territorial Defense Brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Dobrovolye and Shakhtarskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 115 servicemen, two vehicles, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Paladin" made in the USA, a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Caesar" made in France, and a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Bogdana" .
Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the 150th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , the 34th Marine Brigade , the 121st , 124th Territorial Defense Brigades and the 3rd National Guard Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Lobkovoe in the Zaporizhia region, Ilyinka in the Dnipropetrovsk region, Prydniprovskoe, Gavrilovka and Korabelov Island in the Kherson region.
The enemy's losses amounted to 50 servicemen and five vehicles.
Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged fuel and energy infrastructure facilities used in the interests of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, airfields, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in 138 areas.
Air defense systems shot down three US-made HIMARS rockets and 31 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,824 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,735 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,477 multiple launch rocket systems, 16,372 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 27,407 special military vehicles.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
******
THE DEBATE – THE GENERAL STAFF V THE KREMLIN, JOHN HELMER V GILBERT DOCTOROW
by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with
“The winners of the war are the Russian General Staff. Everyone in Russia understands that the Russian Army is winning and will win this war…I believe Gilbert is wrong on the history of the negotiations that have gone on since before this war began… It’s [Russian] military protection that guarantees [Ukrainian] permanent neutrality… Second, I think that Gilbert is wrong on the foundation of policy…The US policy does not date when Gilbert has put it from Madeleine Albright [US Secretary of State 1997-2001]…US policy since 1945 has been to destroy Russia and prevent Russia from ever forming a kind of partnership with Germany in Europe. If such a German-Russian partnership post-war were to develop, that would end US control of Europe… This is not a neocon invention. It goes back to non-Ukrainian, non-Jewish decision makers during World War II in the United States…Thirdly, Gilbert is wrong on method…What Gilbert is saying is that he watches Russian television talk shows… This is an absurd method for understanding either President Putin’s role in the command structure, or the General Staff’s role, or what the future security of Russia is required to be in a settlement…Who takes seriously the Rupert Murdoch approach to truth – you don’t read the London Times or Fox News to determine what is true. Therefore, the notion that we should watch Russian television with that group of talk show presenters as an example of what is the truth of Russian debate is inappropriate.”
“I’m sorry, Gilbert is well-meaning but we are not talking about Doctorow — we are talking about Doctor Zero…If we don’t settle the outcome of the war according to Russia’s security needs now, by the time there is the next [Russian] presidential election, there will be more war.”
“The issue isn’t what [President Vladimir] Zelensky says publicly. The major security threat for Russia is in the secret annexes [of the Ukrainian ‘Victory Plan’]…What went into the US secret annex in Greece [1981-87] was the deployment of US nuclear weapons aimed at Moscow…Secret annexes mean secret weapons, secret deployments, and dual-capable bombs, missiles and warheads…We know we are back in the world of nuclear targeting on Russia…That brings us back to the general problem – what’s US policy toward Russia? Can anything, anything a US administration ever offer Russia be trusted unless the Russian Army is in place? And that brings us back to the Gorbachev treason, repeated as the Yeltsin treason. No Russian president — no Russian president can repeat those two things. The Russian Army won’t tolerate it, and neither will the Russian people…Without the Russian Army, the signature of the US on an agreement is worthless.”
Listen to the full 90-minute podcast here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV0FhnePgYk
https://johnhelmer.net/the-debate-the-g ... more-90463
Ouch! Point to Helmer, who I consider the best authority on Russia.
Listening to this I've lost some of the limited respect I had for Doctorow. He's a whiner.
Helmer's dissertation on the Russian General Staff should get kudos from Andrei Martyanov.
******
Russia Matters: West, Kyiv Ponder Peace Deal That Would Defer Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity, Allow It to Join NATO
October 17, 2024 natyliesb
Russia Matters, 10/15/24
“There is talk behind closed doors” in Western capitals of a deal in which “Moscow retains de facto control over… one-fifth of Ukraine it has occupied—though Russia’s sovereignty is not recognized—while the rest of the country is allowed to join NATO or given equivalent security guarantees,” according to FT editors. “Under that umbrella, it could rebuild and integrate with the EU, akin to West Germany in the Cold War,” they write. Some of these discussions are echoed in Kyiv, according to Der Spiegel. “For the first time since the Russian invasion in February 2022, the Ukrainian capital is seriously discussing scenarios in which the country foregoes the complete reconquest of its occupied territories, almost 20% of Ukrainian territory, for the time being,” this German outlet reports. According to Robert Kagan of Brookings, however, a stable peaceful resolution of the conflict is unlikely because Putin will assume that the West will keep arming Ukraine even if a deal is reached. “Unless something dramatic changes, this is a war that, like most wars, will be won or lost on the battlefield… Americans need to decide soon whether they are prepared to let Ukraine lose,” Kagan writes in WP.
Requests for more weapons and security guarantees by the West, which Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to refer to when briefing the Rada leadership on his victory plan on Oct. 16, have so far received a tepid response by the Biden administration, according to WSJ. In their comments on the plan, U.S. officials have pointed out that it repackages some of Ukraine’s earlier requests for arms and noted that members of NATO are divided about whether to offer Ukraine a formal invitation to join, WSJ reported. Ukrainians are increasingly exhausted by the war, and polls show an incremental increase in the number of Ukrainians prepared for negotiations, according to this U.S. newspaper.
The fall of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region would leave the Ukrainian military without a key logistics hub for operations in eastern Ukraine, and it could serve as Russia’s gateway to conquering the rest of that region, according to Keith Johnson of FP. Moreover, “Pokrovsk’s fall could have an even more insidious impact on Ukraine’s ability to keep fighting: The city is the source of most of the coal used for the country’s steel and iron industry” which is the second-largest sector of the Ukrainian economy, according to Johnson. Without Pokrovsk’s mine, “the country’s remaining steel industry will be crippled,” according to The Economist.
“Russian forces proved more flexible and effective in the conduct of defensive operations in 2023 through a combination of maneuver and positional defense,” according to Michael Kofman of CEIP. Despite these adaptations, however, the Russian army’s assaults on Ukraine’s prepared defenses led to grinding battles. “The net effect was incremental Russian gains at high cost, as Russian forces proved unable to attain operationally significant breakthroughs when possessing quantitative advantages in manpower, materiel and munition,” according to Kofman. However, “[w]hat was true in 2023 may not hold for 2024, and beyond,” this leading expert on the Russian military finds in his CEIP piece, “Assessing Russian Military Adaptation in 2023.” Looking beyond 2023, Kofman finds Ukraine’s fall 2024 incursion into Russia’s Kursk region to be a success on the tactical level, but not “that successful” on the operational level “because if the primary goal was to shift significant Russian forces from their advances” in eastern Ukraine, “this did not take place,” Kofman told NYMag.
Since the first Western restrictions on Russian oil exports were introduced in 2022, Moscow has assembled a fleet of more than 400 tankers that are currently moving some 4 million barrels of oil a day beyond the reach of sanctions, according to FT’s investigation. Presently nearly 70% of the Kremlin’s oil is being transported on these shadow tankers, according to a separate investigation conducted by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute and reported by NYT. Russia has invested about $10 billion in developing its fleet of such shadow tankers. Commenting on the FT investigation, Harvard professor and RM principal investigator Graham Allison wrote on his X account: “For those who still imagine that Western sanctions are strangling Russia’s economy, the FT’s Big Read… masterfully illuminates how Russia is out-playing the US at the cat and mouse game of economic sanctions.”*
Without dedicated reintegration programs in Western countries for fighters returning from Ukraine, the risk of radicalization and violence appears “rather high,” according to Jean-François Ratelle of the University of Ottawa in his PONARS commentary. Western governments may think that most such fighters will not pose a security threat, but that view seems “short-sighted… because it… puts the focus on ideology rather than the broader context of the war and postwar experience,” Ratelle warns.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/rus ... join-nato/
******
On the missile strike of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Crimea
October 18, 2024
The Devil Walks in Dixie
Yesterday, Ukrainian formations attempted to attack the Crimean peninsula , something that had not happened for quite some time. Four Su-24M bombers took off from the Starokonstantinov airfield and flew east.
At the same time, MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters took off from Uman , Dolgintsevo , Mirgorod and Kanatovo as part of the cover for cruise missile carriers and the launch of ADM-160 MALD decoy missiles.
As a result, eight missiles were launched from the Su-24M , which flew to the east of Crimea, along with the decoys. As a result, five missiles were shot down by the air defense systems of the 31st division, and three more were suppressed by electronic warfare systems.
Despite the prolonged absence of Su-24M strikes on Russian territory, the enemy's tactics have remained virtually unchanged. While the Su-24Ms are approaching the line, decoys are launched.
Judging by the missiles' flight path, the target could have been the airfield in Kirovskoye or the air defense positions covering the Crimean Bridge . Surely no one thinks that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will abandon their cherished goal because of the situation at the front?
As long as the enemy has aviation and supplies of long-range missiles, which were marked just before the strike, such raids will continue. And with permission to attack in depth from the West, this could affect other territories as well.
https://rybar.ru/o-raketnom-udare-vsu-po-krymu/
On the possibilities of the so-called Ukraine to create a nuclear weapon in a short time
October 18, 2024
Rybar
Once again, a wave of publications has appeared in the media regarding the possibility of the so-called Ukraine using nuclear weapons that will be collected/found on its territory.
As for the real technical capabilities , the so-called Ukraine has uranium mines, but does not have: enriched uranium production, its own enrichment technology and production of gas centrifuges, because in Soviet times enrichment plants, specialized research institutes and equipment manufacturing enterprises were located on the territory of the RSFSR.
The so-called Ukraine does not have a radiochemical workshop capable of processing irradiated nuclear fuel and extracting plutonium from it. Not to mention that making a nuclear weapon from plutonium from WWER/RBMK is a difficult task even for the nuclear defense complexes of the Russian Federation and the United States .
But there is currently no developed technology for creating our own radiochemical production, but there are problems with time and place.
Regarding speculation that Ukraine has several “stolen” warheads from the Soviet era or its own stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and plutonium, it should be borne in mind that accounting for the removal of nuclear weapons from the so-called Ukraine was carried out by both Russia and the United States.
It was a rare example of unanimity between Moscow and Washington: both sides agreed that there should be no nuclear arsenal or delivery vehicles on the territory of the former republic .
Also, the so-called Ukraine joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a country that does not possess nuclear weapons or the industry for their production.
When joining the NPT, each party signs a safeguards agreement with the IAEA , under which the Agency periodically conducts inspections of all nuclear and radiation facilities in the country.
If a country does not allow IAEA inspectors to the requested facility, the Agency openly states this. There were no such statements regarding the so-called Ukraine.
A country's non-nuclear-weapon status under the NPT does not prohibit a country from possessing fissile materials suitable for making nuclear weapons.
Since such materials also have civilian applications, you can possess as much as you like. But you must declare to the IAEA: how much weapons-grade materials you have, how much was produced, where and in what form they are stored, and also report: where, when and how much of them were used, and for what.
This information cannot be kept secret from the IAEA. If some amount of fissile material had "disappeared" from the territory of the so-called Ukraine at some point, this would have become known.
Since there were no facilities engaged in the production of nuclear weapons on the territory of the so-called Ukraine, all stockpiles of weapons materials were at the disposal of scientists engaged in research in the field of nuclear technologies. For example, at the Kharkov Phystech .
The last batch of highly enriched uranium was removed from Ukrainian territory to Russia in March 2012 .
Consequently, the so-called Ukraine does not have the ability to create nuclear weapons due to the lack of stockpiles of weapons materials, the capacity to produce them, and the required technologies.
Based on this, it can be stated with confidence that any nuclear weapon that appears on the territory of this state entity will be of foreign origin .
https://rybar.ru/o-vozmozhnostyah-t-n-u ... oe-vremya/
On the possibilities of the so-called Ukraine to create a nuclear weapon in a short time
October 18, 2024
Rybar
Once again, a wave of publications has appeared in the media regarding the possibility of the so-called Ukraine using nuclear weapons that will be collected/found on its territory.
As for the real technical capabilities , the so-called Ukraine has uranium mines, but does not have: enriched uranium production, its own enrichment technology and production of gas centrifuges, because in Soviet times enrichment plants, specialized research institutes and equipment manufacturing enterprises were located on the territory of the RSFSR.
The so-called Ukraine does not have a radiochemical workshop capable of processing irradiated nuclear fuel and extracting plutonium from it. Not to mention that making a nuclear weapon from plutonium from WWER/RBMK is a difficult task even for the nuclear defense complexes of the Russian Federation and the United States .
But there is currently no developed technology for creating our own radiochemical production, but there are problems with time and place.
Regarding speculation that Ukraine has several “stolen” warheads from the Soviet era or its own stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and plutonium, it should be borne in mind that accounting for the removal of nuclear weapons from the so-called Ukraine was carried out by both Russia and the United States.
It was a rare example of unanimity between Moscow and Washington: both sides agreed that there should be no nuclear arsenal or delivery vehicles on the territory of the former republic .
Also, the so-called Ukraine joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a country that does not possess nuclear weapons or the industry for their production.
When joining the NPT, each party signs a safeguards agreement with the IAEA , under which the Agency periodically conducts inspections of all nuclear and radiation facilities in the country.
If a country does not allow IAEA inspectors to the requested facility, the Agency openly states this. There were no such statements regarding the so-called Ukraine.
A country's non-nuclear-weapon status under the NPT does not prohibit a country from possessing fissile materials suitable for making nuclear weapons.
Since such materials also have civilian applications, you can possess as much as you like. But you must declare to the IAEA: how much weapons-grade materials you have, how much was produced, where and in what form they are stored, and also report: where, when and how much of them were used, and for what.
This information cannot be kept secret from the IAEA. If some amount of fissile material had "disappeared" from the territory of the so-called Ukraine at some point, this would have become known.
Since there were no facilities engaged in the production of nuclear weapons on the territory of the so-called Ukraine, all stockpiles of weapons materials were at the disposal of scientists engaged in research in the field of nuclear technologies. For example, at the Kharkov Phystech .
The last batch of highly enriched uranium was removed from Ukrainian territory to Russia in March 2012 .
Consequently, the so-called Ukraine does not have the ability to create nuclear weapons due to the lack of stockpiles of weapons materials, the capacity to produce them, and the required technologies.
Based on this, it can be stated with confidence that any nuclear weapon that appears on the territory of this state entity will be of foreign origin .
https://rybar.ru/o-vozmozhnostyah-t-n-u ... oe-vremya/
Who and why finances Ukrainian propaganda in the liberated territories?
October 18, 2024
Rybar
The existence of Ukrainian Telegram channels mimicking Russian ones and managed by CIPSO employees is no longer news: we have reviewed specific networks and performers many times before.
However, few people know that work with similar tasks ( propaganda and manipulation, as well as involving Russian citizens in illegal activities ) is also carried out by private companies using money from non-profit organizations.
The work of one of these became known from the report we received from the Center for Political Studies “Doctrine” ( CPS ) on the development of a Ukrainian grant issued by the Partnership for a Strong Ukraine Foundation.
The CPS has created and runs a whole network of channels aimed at promoting pro-Ukrainian narratives among the Russian population.
The documents explicitly state that their goals are:
discrediting Russian information through resources masquerading as pro-Russian;
sowing ethnic hatred and targeting individual ethnic communities ( in particular, the Crimean Tatars are mentioned );
collecting information from eyewitnesses from Russian territory ( i.e., engaging in espionage ).
From the same reporting documents, we learned that it is increasingly difficult for the admins of pro-Ukrainian Telegram channels to do their jobs due to missile strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on energy infrastructure, as well as due to measures taken by Russian authorities to block channels with prohibited content.
It is funny how the CPS was unable to respond to the grant requirement to promote the LGBT agenda ( obviously, this is one of the key requirements of the sponsors ), formulating only a couple of general phrases about the importance of an individual approach to sources and audiences.
It is interesting that the Center is not only engaged in propaganda on the territory of the Russian Federation, but is also engaged in discrediting the Russian presence in Africa . In particular, they are trying to promote information about the destabilizing role of the African Corps in the Sahel and the alleged disruption of grain supplies due to Russian strikes.
It is important that the sponsor of pro-Ukrainian propaganda, the Partnership for a Strong Ukraine Foundation, whose formally stated task is to help the population in the conflict zone, appeared on February 2, 2022 ( 22 days before the start of the NWO ), and its creation was announced by Great Britain and other Western countries back in 2021.
In this case, we can once again see how the infrastructure for NATO's multi-domain operations works . After all, it is through such channels that not only panic is whipped up, but also important intelligence information is collected, which is necessary for adjusting Ukrainian strikes.
This means that residents of new regions, especially in the frontline zone, should be more vigilant to requests and appeals from suspicious resources.
https://rybar.ru/kto-i-zachem-finansiru ... ritoriyah/
(I do not understand why English versions of Rybar images do not 'take'.)
Kursk direction: a dash in the direction of Viktorovka and the liberation of Plekhovo
October 18, 2024
Rybar
In the Kursk region, the Russian Armed Forces are not slowing down the pace of their offensive, methodically driving the enemy out of the Russian settlements they had previously occupied.
In the Glushkovsky district , according to some reports, the Ukrainian Armed Forces retreated from the village of Novy Put and took up positions along the railway line south of the settlement, where they had previously set up a line of defense. At the moment, the area is being cleared. Since the retreating Ukrainian Armed Forces units are abandoning the bodies of their dead soldiers, Russian servicemen are burying them.
In the Korenevsky district, Russian armored groups made a dash in the direction of Viktorovka , going several kilometers into the Ukrainian Armed Forces control zone. Information about the liberation of Novoivanovka was received several days ago, and in Viktorovka itself , fighting has not yet begun. Ukrainian formations are holding positions on the approaches to the village.
Further south, fighting continues in the area of Lyubimovka and Nizhny Klin , where Ukrainian formations find themselves in an unenviable position due to the only possible retreat - through a fairly narrow neck of the "bag" east of Tolsty Lug . Over the past 24 hours, reports have been coming from here about a large number of Ukrainians leaving their positions and surrendering.
In the Sudzhansky district, Russian army fighters are driving the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of Plekhovo , where the enemy is also half-encircled. The most optimistic statements have already included information about the liberation of this settlement. In addition, Russian Aerospace Forces aviation and other branches of the military are conducting fire operations against identified areas of concentration of enemy manpower and equipment both in the occupied territories of the Kursk region and in Sumy .
https://rybar.ru/kurskoe-napravlenie-ry ... e-plehovo/
Google Translator
******
Political dead man
The quality of visual campaign materials continues to improve steadily, especially compared to 2022.
(Video at Link. Worth viewing, you don't need Russian to understand, 1 min.)
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9446708.html
About North Koreans
About North Koreans.
1. Their participation in the NWO is not something bad in itself and since the DPRK is now our military ally (officially), then why not.
2. Until DPRK soldiers appear on the front line, for example in the border areas, all this is nothing more than a funny and hype topic.
3. At the moment, the DPRK is not participating in any military actions. It is worth noting that the DPRK has not been at war with anyone since 1953.
4. If the DPRK soldiers are registered as volunteers, then as the US likes to say, "we support, but do not directly participate."
5. So we just wait. Well, and joke a little. Better about the Koreans than about quad bikes.
6. When people start whining that, well, we're inviting foreign volunteers to the SVO, maybe the Koreans will come, it's worth remembering that during the Great Patriotic War, the Polish formations "Armia Ludowa", the French formations "Normandie-Niemen" and the Czechoslovak army corps were part of the Red Army. And not only. By the way, the Koreans were also part of the Red Army at that time, only they were stationed in the Far East and later it was on their base that the formation of the DPRK army began.
7. And readers of LJ know very well that this magazine published complimentary materials about the DPRK long before it became mainstream.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9447595.html
Google Translator
(Russia does not need Korean infantry but I'm sure Korea would appreciate cadre troops getting combat experience,)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V
A reduced Rammstein
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 20/10/2024
Zelensky's Victory Plan week has culminated with Joe Biden's visit to Berlin and the US meeting with the leaders of its three main allies in Western Europe: Germany, France and the United Kingdom. "The United States will always be with its friends: for peace, security and prosperity," wrote the official US presidential account on social media, accompanying an image of a smiling Joe Biden alongside Keir Starmer, Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron. Despite the message, the conversation does not take place at a time when peace and security are the main issues. The differences between the four allies have been few in the last year when it comes to the practically unconditional support for Israel despite the massive destruction of Gaza and now Lebanon and a cost in civilian victims far higher than the two and a half years of war between the armies of Russia and Ukraine, the main topic of the meeting. Delayed as a result of Hurricane Milton, a crisis that the current president did not want to appear to be indifferent to, the brief European meeting has little to do with the Rammstein summit that Zelensky had hoped to attend.
Aware that war fatigue weighs on allies when promises of success do not become reality and that he has to compete with Israel for Washington's favor, a fight in which he has everything to lose, the Ukrainian president wanted to have the attention of the heads of government of his allies and most important suppliers. At that meeting, Zelensky was to present his Victory Plan collectively, showing the existing hierarchies. The Ukrainian president had already detailed his proposal to Joe Biden, the most important person when it comes to implementing the plan , and was preparing to announce his five points before the national Parliament. Between these presentations, the Rammstein summit was to take place, cancelled due to the electoral needs of the Democratic Party, which needed the most presidential Joe Biden who would prioritize the domestic agenda over the international one. With just two weeks to go until the elections, it is clear that it is the national and not the foreign policy proposals that will determine the result. However, the scant US reaction to Zelensky's plan is also a confirmation that the election period requires not announcing decisions that could prove costly. That is why we did not expect an American announcement on lifting the veto on the use of Western missiles against Russian territory, nor a clear response to the first point of Zelensky's proposal, the immediate invitation to join NATO, an issue that would undoubtedly have been an important question at the failed Rammstein summit.
Zelensky replaced the missed opportunity to address all his allies as a group with a trip to several European capitals, an appearance in a Rada used only to nod effusively to the president and finally a belligerent speech in Brussels. Ukraine has managed to place the idea of the Victory Plan in the press, but it has not achieved the desired effect due to a combination of circumstances: a perceived lack of realism by Western allies, internal divisions on some of the key issues and the US electoral condition. “Although all NATO members have agreed that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” towards accession, the United States and Germany have opposed formally inviting Kiev to join for fear of an escalation of the conflict with Russia. Some officials have also privately speculated about using NATO membership as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Moscow,” writes the Financial Times this week without explaining how the West is going to convince Russia to accept the NATO issue as part of the negotiations, one of the reasons for the Russian military intervention.
Good wishes and promises for the future are not enough for Ukraine, which is demanding the immediate invitation it expects before the end of Biden's term. The cancellation of the Rammstein summit and its replacement by an informal and sparse meeting of Biden and three European leaders shows that Ukraine's allies do not share kyiv's urgency. Ukraine's rush to get the NATO prize and permission to use Western missiles on Russian territory is due to fear of the arrival at the White House of Donald Trump, who this week referred to the war in terms that are annoying to Zelensky and his entourage. "He should never have allowed that war to start. The war is a loser," said the Republican candidate on Thursday in an appearance on a conservative podcast. Zelensky seemed confident in his ability to convince Trump in a face-to-face meeting, but their recent meeting does not seem to have changed the opinion of the American tycoon who insisted that the war would never have occurred during his presidency and who, to the surprise of the media, blamed Joe Biden and not Vladimir Putin for its outbreak.
“Under President Bush, Russia invaded Georgia. Under President Obama, Russia took Crimea. Under the current administration, Russia is going after all of Ukraine,” Trump said, adding that “under President Trump, Russia took nothing.” “It would have been so easy. If there had been a president with half a brain, it would have been so easy to resolve,” Trump boasted, forgetting that during his mandate he was unable to resolve the Donbass conflict, which is much more accessible than the current one and in which his policy was a direct continuation of the approaches inherited from Obama-Biden.
Trump's coming to power poses a significant risk for Ukraine, despite the work of the Republican lobby group that is trying to change the candidate's opinion. One of these people is Marc Thiessen, a member of the conservative think-tank American Enterprise Institute and a regular face on Fox News , Donald Trump's favourite television channel, who in his latest article for The Washington Post lists the similarities between the Ukrainian president and the Republican candidate, whom he sees as two outsiders who forged their careers in television but who abandoned lucrative careers for the good of their state and have confronted the deep state . Their hatred of Nord Stream is another common element highlighted by the lobbyist who, recalling Trump's harshness against Russia - and against countries close to Russia such as Venezuela or Iran - insists that a bad relationship between Trump and Zelensky should not be taken for granted.
The tension between the two countries, which has been on display since their brief meeting in New York, now weighs more than the possibility of a future understanding. But regardless of who wins the November elections, Ukraine seems to be aware that it will have to continue to put pressure on its partners to achieve what it expects. It is to them that the ultimatum is addressed, which is, in fact, the Victory Plan , a document that promises victory and economic benefits in exchange for a collective effort that, as of today, Ukraine's suppliers are not willing to make. However, the initial "no" from the allies does not have to be permanent. That is, at least, the approach of Ukraine, which sees the invitation to join NATO as the political equivalent of miracle weapons. "The invitation to join NATO will raise the morale of our population and our soldiers," insisted Zelensky, referring to the promise of membership, not even to actual entry into the Alliance. The same effect was expected in the case of, for example, Leopard tanks or F-16s, which would automatically change the nature of war.
As in those cases, which required months of media campaigns and lobbying, Kiev is ready to fight for its plan . “The reaction to the victory plan is exactly the same as with the Patriots, F16s… But we have to do it. It is the only way we can survive,” Zelensky said, implicitly confirming his partners’ initial refusal to the proposal and making it clear that Ukraine never takes no for an answer. In the absence of a Rammstein summit, any format is good for this.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/20/30781/
Google Translator
*****
From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense (as of October 20, 2024) Main points:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 90 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the Northern Group of Forces;
— Daily losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of responsibility of the Western Group of Forces amounted
to more than 450 servicemen; — The Center Group defeated five enemy brigades in the DPR, repelled 9 counterattacks, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 460 servicemen per day;
— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 50 servicemen and two ammunition depots in the area of responsibility of the Dnepr Group;
— The Vostok Group defeated a brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Dobrovolye area in the DPR, repelled a counterattack, the enemy lost up to 110 servicemen;
— The Russian Air Defense Forces shot down 5 HIMARS projectiles and 142 Ukrainian UAVs per day.
Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the formations of the 141st Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 35th Marine Brigade, the 124th and 126th Territorial Defense Brigades in the areas of the settlements of Kamenskoye in the Zaporizhia region, Dneprovskoye, Nikolskoye in the Kherson region and the city of Kherson.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 50 servicemen, seven vehicles and a Plastun electronic reconnaissance station. Two ammunition depots and military-technical equipment were destroyed.
Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged temporary deployment points of foreign mercenaries, workshops for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles, places of their preparation and launch in the Sumy and Kharkov regions, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in the 131st district.
Air defense systems shot down five US-made HIMARS rockets and 142 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,966 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,740 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,478 multiple launch rocket systems, 16,418 field artillery pieces and mortars, 27,430 units of special military vehicles.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
******
Zelensky Once More Puts Allies Under Nuclear Shadow
Simplicius
Oct 18, 2024
A new central flashpoint around the issue of Ukraine obtaining nuclear weapons has suddenly taken hold of the narrative after Zelensky appeared to imply that Ukraine’s future can only be secured either via NATO or nuclear weapons. In fact, he said that’s what he explained to Trump and may be the real root kernel of his ‘Victory Plan’:
(Videos at link.)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... join-nato/
Julian Roepcke at BILD went on to report that some high-ranking Ukrainian official disclosed that if given the order, Ukraine can build a nuke “within a matter of weeks”:
The Official specializing in weapons procurement, said in a closed round: "We have the Material, we have the Knowledge. If there is, the arrangement, we need only a few weeks until the first bomb.“
The West should be "less about Russia's red lines, instead of thinking a lot more about our red lines," the warning of the Official.
He was forced to defend himself after another round of backlash:
However, after the report caused a firestorm, Zelensky’s press office was forced to issue an official refutation of Roepcke’s statements:
The Office of the President of Ukraine denied reports of the tabalid Bild that the Ukrainian authorities are allegedly seriously considering the possibility of restoring nuclear stockpiles.
According to Dmytro Lytvyn, adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, it has long been possible to confuse where the words of military columnists Bild Julian Röpack, and where are the statements of Russian propagandists, writes Channel 24.
"Therefore, both Röpke and Russian propaganda "throw the same nonsense into the information space," he added.
Interestingly, the above publication also notes the following, insinuating that as a last desperate line of defense Ukraine would rapidly obtain nukes if Russia were to assault Kiev again:
According to Bild analyst Julian Röpke, Zelensky's statement came as a “shock” to Western journalists. He claims that a few months ago, a senior Ukrainian official allegedly told the publication and other members of a narrow circle of politicians and officials that Ukraine would not accept a second Russian army offensive on Kyiv.
“We have materials, we have knowledge. If there is an order, it will take us only a few weeks to get the first bomb. The West should “think less about Russia's red lines and much more about our red lines,” the Ukrainian official said, according to the journalist.
Zelensky himself immediately began to walk back his statements after realizing the hot-water he may have landed himself in with his sponsors:
(Videos at link.)
First a couple quick obligatory clarifications. Zelensky himself continues to spout the debunked lie that Ukraine “gave up its nuclear weapons” during the Budapest Memorandum.
Here’s the truth again:
Ukraine never had control over those nukes. Secondly, it was revealed that it was actually the US itself rather than Russia that forced Ukraine to give up its nukes during that period, not wanting live nukes to fall into the hands of some failed state. Sure, Ukraine would not have been able to launch them, but could have potentially cracked them open and sold the enriched plutonium to bad actors on the black market.
<snip>
WASHINGTON (AP) — Months into Russia's war in Ukraine, the United States had intelligence pointing to “highly sensitive, credible conversations inside the Kremlin” that President Vladimir Putin was seriously considering using nuclear weapons to avoid major battlefield losses, journalist Bob Woodward reported in his new book, “War.”
The U.S. intelligence pointed to a 50% chance that Putin would use tactical nukes if Ukrainian forces surrounded 30,000 Russian troops in the southern city of Kherson, the book says. Just months before, in the far northeast, Ukrainian troops had stunned the Russians by recapturing Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, and were pivoting to liberate Kherson, strategically located on the Dnieper River not far from the Black Sea.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan stared “with dread” at the intelligence assessment — described as coming from the best sources and methods — in late September 2022, seven months after Russia's invasion, the book says. It caused alarm across the Biden administration, moving the chance of Russia using nukes up from 5% to 10% to now 50%.
According to Woodward's account, President Joe Biden told Sullivan to "get on the line with the Russians. Tell them what we will do in response.”
He said to use language that was threatening but not too strong, the book says. Biden also reached out to Putin directly in a message, warning of the “catastrophic consequences” if Russia used nuclear weapons.
The famed Watergate reporter’s latest book also details Donald Trump's conversations with Putin since leaving office, Biden’s frustrations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and more. The Associated Press obtained an early copy of Woodward's book, which is due out next week.
The other now famous exchange from the book:
In another heated conversation laid out in Woodward’s book, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confronted his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, in October 2022.
“We know you are contemplating the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” Austin said, according to Woodward. “Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale against anybody would be seen by the United States and the world as a world-changing event. There is no scale of nuclear weapons that we could overlook or that the world could overlook.”
As Shoigu listened, Austin pressed on, noting that the U.S. had not given Ukraine certain weapons and had restricted the use of some of those it had provided. He warned that those constraints would be reconsidered. He also noted that China, India, Turkey and Israel would isolate Russia if it used nuclear weapons.
“I don’t take kindly to being threatened,” Shoigu responded, the book says.
“Mr. Minister,” Austin said. “I am the leader of the most powerful military in the history of the world. I don’t make threats.”
The point is that the US was apparently extremely spooked and took the threat of nuclear use very seriously. This is now being used as explanation for why, precisely, Biden has been so careful of Russia’s red lines since that time, and has refused to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory. Something about that early exchange must have really convinced them that Russia was in fact prepared to use tactical nukes. Zelensky knowing this could be playing the nuke card in order to bait out a Russian nuclear response, or at least a preliminary one—like the preparation of tactical nukes for combat use—in order to stir up provocation and confrontation.
This last poignant take underscores the above. Biden was convinced that going too hard on Russia would back it into a corner and raise the nuclear stakes, which ironically is one of the accusations levied by the Ukrainian side for a long time now—that the US has been too scared to “defeat” Russia in full:
Back in 2022, the White House realized that they were “stuck” in the war in Ukraine.
This is stated in the book “War” by American journalist Bob Woodward, which publishes private conversations of American politicians.
It is reported that in November 2022, President Biden and his adviser Sullivan had a conversation regarding the prospects for conflict.
“If we do not expel Russia completely from Ukraine, then to some extent we will allow Putin to achieve what he wants. And if we manage to kick them out, we risk nuclear war. Putin will not allow himself to be driven out of here without the use of nuclear weapons. So we're stuck. Too much success - nuclear, too little - incomprehensible long-term consequences,” Woodward reports Biden’s words.
Thus, the most desirable outcome of the war for the US leadership is either to get Putin to agree to freeze the conflict, or to wait for something to break down in Russia itself, according to the book cited by the Babel publication.
Earlier from the book it became known that the United States, against the backdrop of its defeats in Ukraine, in the fall of 2022.
(More at link.)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zel ... lies-under
******
Ukraine - Threat Of North Korean Soldiers Is Based on U.S. Info Campaign
Earlier this week I pointed to a Ukrainian (South Korean, U.S.') propaganda campaign which claims that thousands of North Korean soldiers will soon fight with on the Russian side against Ukraine:
To have North Koreans fighting in Russia against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk would make little sense. That incursion is for one already mostly defeated.
Besides that the language and cultural problems would make the integration of such forces into Russian military operations nearly impossible. I am sure that the Russian military would be strongly against it.
Zelenski's claims were amplified through various proxies and media appearances:
...
I regard the whole claim of North Korean troops in Russia as a fake news story and I am sure that most experts will follow me in that judgment.
However, today U.S. media manage to play up the nonsense:
Why North Korea is sending soldiers to the Russian front lines - Washington Post, Oct 15 2024
...
I do not believe that any politician or military in the west will believe that nonsense which is again solely sourced to Ukrainian military intelligence claims. But there is clear campaign by the Ukrainian government to make the issue stick.
At the time of writing the above I did not know that the idea for this campaign came from RAND, the Pentagon's think tank which often proposes strategic ideas. In a commentary about Russian/North Korean and Chinese cooperation published on October 11, three days before the start of Zelenski's campaign, a RAND analyst wrote:
What Should the United States Do?
Given the differences in the objectives of Russia, China, and North Korea, the United States should be mounting major information operations against these three countries to highlight their differences and fuel distrust among them. Doing so would increase the likelihood of decoupling at least some of their partnerships. Some examples of potential information operations seem obvious.
...
Information operations are also possible against Russia and North Korea.
...
[T]he United States should recognize that North Korean military advisors are supporting Russian use of North Korean military supplies in occupied areas of Ukraine.
...
The South Korean Defense Minister has said that North Korea will likely send more of its troops to support Russia, probably on the battlefield. Given Russian attitudes, those troops may well serve as cannon fodder. The North Korean elites need to hear what Kim may do to their sons.
...
This new cooperation between Russia and North Korea is hardly a signal of a budding long-term alliance and U.S. information campaigns could help speed its demise.
Just three days later the Military Intelligence of the Ukrainian army, headed by General Budanov, started to 'leak' claims to the Ukrainian press about North Korean troops in Russia. It is obvious where this came from:
According to a 2024 report by The New York Times, Budanov was one of the members of the elite Unit 2245 of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate trained by CIA.
Since launching the first rumors of 1,500, then 3,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia Budanov has steadily increased the claim:
11,000 North Korean troops will be 'ready to fight' in Ukraine by Nov. 1, Budanov says - Kyiv Independent, Oct 18 2024
The South Korean news agency Yonhap, well known for peddling fake news about North Korea, repeats similar South Korean 'intelligence' claims:
N. Korea decides to send around 10,000 soldiers to support Russia in Ukraine war: Seoul - Yonhap, Oct 18, 2024
U.s. media are also all over the theme. After the Washington Post had peddled the rumors from Ukraine the New York Times also jumped in:
North Korea, Longing for Battle Experience, Eyes Ukraine - New York Times, Oct 16
The NYT report caused some bewilderment:
Left I on the News ⚧️ @leftiblog - 14:07 UTC · Oct 16, 2024
An entire NYT article https://nytimes.com/2024/10/16/world/as ... ussia.html [is] based on the premise that North Korean troops are fighting in Ukraine. Not until the 15th paragraph does the reader learn there’s no evidence for this whatsoever.
Images
NATO agreed with Left I:
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the allies “have no evidence that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fight. But we do know that North Korea is supporting Russia in many ways, weapons supplies, technological supplies, innovation, to support them in the war effort. And that is highly worrying.”
The current election season assured that the propaganda theme would soon expand into the political realm:
Congress demands Biden's response to North Korean troops participation in war against Ukraine - UA Pravda, Oct 19 2024
Mike Turner, Chair of the House Intelligence Committee in the United States, has demanded an "immediate" briefing from the White House amid reports that North Korean troops may be involved in hostilities against Ukraine on the side of Russia.
...
"North Korean troops, either attacking Ukraine from Russian territory or entering into Ukrainian territory, m
Just be a red line for the United States and NATO. Your administration must make that absolutely clear and unequivocal," Turner wrote to Biden.
As the claim of North Korean troops preparing for war in Ukraine still lacked evidence the Ukrainian Intelligence had to fabricate some:
Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo - 11:21 UTC · Oct 18, 2024
BREAKING STUPIDITY: Ukraine shows a North Korean POW! The problem is he speaks Ukrainian, LMAO.
They explain it, that Koreans live close to the border with russia so they learn Russian, ok ... sure but he speaks UKRAINIAN ... LMAO
They took some student from Kiev or something and forced him to do this video!
He recites the Ukrainian poem "Love Ukraine" by Volodymyr Sosiura in Ukrainian and has very good pronunciation. No way he just learned it in 10 minutes, not humanly possible.
Embedded video
There are also two videos which allegedly show North Korean soldiers being outfitted with Russian gear as well as training with them.
North Korean troops seen being kitted out in Russia ahead of likely despatch to Ukraine - CNN, Oct 19, 2024
In a video shared with CNN by Ukrainian government organization, the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security, a long line of soldiers can be seen queuing up to receive their uniforms. The soldiers are thought to be speaking in Korean although the low quality audio prevented their discussions from being fully understood.
However, knowledgeable sources claim that the videos were taken during one of the yearly LAROS maneuvers during which troops from Laos and Russia perform military drills. The caps worn by the soldiers in the -Ukraine provided- CNN video look like the caps of Laotian soldiers.
Shortly after RAND proposed a U.S. information operation campaign around the theme of North Korean soldiers in Russia the Ukrainian military intelligence service under CIA trainee Budanov started to spread rumors of North Korean soldiers soon to fight on the Russian side. The numbers claimed by Budanov have since steadily increased. South Korean intelligence, also associated with the CIA, and U.S. media have joined the campaign. The chair of the House Intelligence Committee is milking the campaign to make political points.
Evidence that was supposed to support the claims has been exposed as being fake. The whole story is thus based on nothing but 'intelligence' rumors which are following a RAND proposed script. Don't fall for it.
Posted by b on October 19, 2024 at 15:57 UTC | Permalink
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/u ... .html#more
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Zelensky’s Nuke Comments Are Sensational & Shouldn’t Be Taken Too Seriously
Andrew Korybko
Oct 18, 2024
The head of the Duma’s defense committee threw cold water on this scenario.
Observers were shocked when Zelensky revealed on Thursday that he supposedly told Trump that Ukraine will either have nuclear weapons or join NATO, which coincided with German outlet Bild citing a high-ranking Ukrainian official to report that his country could build a nuke “in a few weeks” if it wanted. Later that same day, however, Zelensky backtracked during a press conference with the new NATO chief by claiming that “we don’t do nuclear weapons.”
While some folks still suspect that he wants to build nukes and might very well still have the capability to do so in record time if the decision is made, head of the Duma’s defense committee Andrey Kartapolov threw cold water on this scenario in his remarks to RIA Novosti. He said that “This is complete nonsense, they have nothing for this. No competence, no materials, no equipment. Fairy tales about creating nuclear weapons from waste for nuclear fuel are fairy tales for the poorly educated.”
He then added that “Real nuclear weapons are absolutely out of the question. Iran has been trying to create them for so long. Despite having much greater competence, there is still no reliable data that it has created them or not. And Ukraine has not yet started to do this, there is no one to do this there.” Kartapolov didn’t discount the possibility of it creating a “dirty bomb” but reaffirmed that Russia is taking everything into account when assessing such threats.
The takeaway is that Zelensky’s nuke comments are sensational and shouldn’t be taken seriously. It appears that he simply got carried away selling his “Victory Plan” and thus went off script claiming that he told Trump about Ukraine’s nuclear intentions (whether he actually did or not). About that, it was met with a cold reception since NATO already ruled out letting Ukraine join anytime soon, jointly intercepting Russian missiles, and basing their own missiles in Ukraine, which are his “Victory Plan’s” top three pillars.
What’s most interesting about this scandal is that Zelensky briefly brought up the possibility of building nukes before backtracking despite his earlier comments on this in late February 2022 being one of the pretexts for Russia’s special operation, which Putin referenced in his speech on the day that it began. RT also published a detailed article by an ex-Ukrainian diplomat in January 2023 about her country’s nuclear weapons production capabilities. It’s therefore intriguing that Kartapolov just downplayed this scenario.
This mixed messaging is arguably attributable to both sides forgetting about the role that nuclear rhetoric played in the run-up to the special operation. That would explain why Zelensky brought it up in the first place before backtracking and then Kartapolov brushed this possibility off as unlikely. There’s also the chance that Ukraine’s nuclear weapons production capabilities have since been degraded so Kartapolov might not have mixed any messaging up and thus unwittingly contradicted his boss Putin.
A complementary explanation for him soft-peddling the scenario of Ukraine building nukes is that he also doesn’t want anyone to have false expectations about his country intensifying its special operation. Putin chose to wage an improvised “war of attrition” after spring 2022’s draft peace treaty fell through instead of an all-out conventional war due to him prioritizing political goals over military ones as touched upon here. He remains so committed to them that he stayed the course even after Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk.
It accordingly makes sense for Kartapolov not to hype up Zelensky’s rhetorical blunder and thus set Russia’s supporters up for disappointment when Putin doesn’t ramp up the special operation in response. From the opposite perspective, however, Zelensky’s advisors might have feared that Russia could escalate so they told him to swiftly backtrack just in case. Regardless of their motives, the outcome is still the same, and it’s that neither side is interested in pursuing this issue further for now at least.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/zelensky ... ensational
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Geoffrey Roberts – Ukraine: Versailles or Brest-Litovsk?
October 19, 2024
By Geoffrey Roberts, Brave New Europe, 10/4/24
As it reels from one battlefield defeat after another, Ukraine faces a fateful choice: sue for peace or fight to the bitter end.
Ukraine’s ultra-nationalists would prefer purifying blood sacrifice to a shameful defeat, while Western hardliners want to wear Russia down by fighting to the last Ukrainian. This yearning for Ukraine to re-enact a Nazi-style Götterdämmerung is shared by those Russian hardliners who believe in the pursuit of security through total victory.
The alternative to epochal destruction a la 1945 is a 1918-style armistice along the lines of President Putin’s June peace proposal: a ceasefire in exchange for Ukraine’s neutralisation and the complete withdrawal of its armed forces from the four provinces – Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhe – formally incorporated by the Russian Federation in October 2022 – concessions that would then be followed by detailed peace negotiations.
No historical analogy is perfect, but Germany’s armistice with the Entente powers in November 1918 is an instructive example of a war ending in one side’s victory but on terms that fell far short of the unconditional surrenders of World War II.
When Germany ‘surrendered’ in 1918 it ceased all military operations and withdrew its armed forces from foreign occupied territories. Unlike in 1945, Germany remained unoccupied and was promised a negotiated peace treaty. There was also regime-change in the form of the Kaiserreich’s overthrow, but Wilhelm II was replaced by a democratic republic.
The promised peace negotiations took place at Versailles in 1919. German negotiators expected a discussion framed by President Woodrow Wilson’s 14-point peace plan of 1918 – which had signalled a relatively fair and equitable settlement – but they found themselves faced with a non-negotiable diktat.
Under the terms of the Treaty of Versailles, Germany lost territory – notably to newly independent Poland – and was forced to demilitarise and pay billions of dollars in reparations. Germans complained the treaty was humiliation that heaped on them all the blame for the war, but it wasn’t a particularly punitive peace. Germany got off lightly compared to its allies, Austria-Hungary and Turkey, whose empires completely collapsed.
Germany’s people suffered greatly during the early postwar years but by the mid-1920s the country had recovered economically and was fully rehabilitated internationally, having been admitted to the League of Nations. Reparations were effectively null and void and Germany’s armed forces were surreptitiously being rebuilt with help from Soviet Russia, a revolutionary state that was seeking to de-stabilise the capitalist world through diplomacy as well as subversion. The Nazi nightmare of the 1930s wasn’t so much a consequence of Versailles as a result of the Wall Street Crash’s catalysation of a worldwide depression that devastated Germany.
Ukraine is in a much stronger position than was Germany in 1918. It has lost a lot of territory but it does not yet face imminent defeat and occupation and can still inflict heavy damage on Russia’s armed forces. Unlike Germany at Versailles, Ukraine wouldn’t be isolated at any peace conference. It would have powerful western backers and influential support from Putin’s well-wishers in the Global South who want him to make a genuine and durable deal with Kiev that will safeguard Ukraine’s future as an independent sovereign state.
So far, there is no sign Putin has any substantial territorial ambitions beyond those specified by his June peace proposal. Doubtless, he will demand a demilitarised zone, but that could suit Ukraine, too, especially if its results in the return to its sovereignty of territory currently occupied by Russia. Russia won’t pay reparations but nor will it demand them, except for the return by the West of its frozen bank assets. Indeed, there are many ways Russia could aid Ukraine’s postwar recovery, not least in relation to the country’s energy supplies. POWs could be released and children returned. Millions of Ukrainian refugees in Russia as well as Europe would be able to return home. Russia would demand protections for its remaining compatriots in Ukraine and Kiev the safeguarding of its citizens’ interests in Russian-occupied territories. Most important, would be the negotiation of an international security guarantee to protect Ukraine from future invasion by Russia. Such a peace settlement would in turn speed up Ukraine’s entry into the EU.
The 1918 armistice led to a bitter peace for Germany at Versailles, but it saved millions of lives and safeguarded the country’s future.
There is another 1918 historical analogy worth considering: the Brest-Litovsk peace treaty of March 1918.
Having seized power in Russia, at the end of 1917 the Bolsheviks sought a separate peace with Germany. A ceasefire was agreed and negotiations began at Brest-Litovsk. The Bolsheviks, however, did not negotiate in good faith. For Bolshevik leader Lenin, the peace talks were a means to buy time to enable his party to consolidate its grip on power at home and promote revolution abroad. Bolshevik Foreign Commissar, Leon Trotsky, turned the Brest talks into a platform for revolutionary propaganda. But the Germans soon tired of Trotsky’s tactics and threatened to annul the negotiations and resume military operations.
By this time Lenin was losing faith in the imminence of world revolution and was prepared to do a peace deal on German terms, arguing that defence of the revolution in Russia was the prime goal. However, a majority of Bolsheviks – not wishing to dirty their hands by signing an onerous treaty that entailed significant territorial losses – opted for Trotsky’s alternative of ‘neither peace nor war’. Trotsky hoped the Germans would acquiesce in a unilateral declaration of demobilisation by Russia. That tactic backfired spectacularly when the Germans launched an offensive that quickly forced the Bolsheviks to sign a treaty conceding vast swathes of territory, payment of reparations and existence of a separate Ukraine. As Trotsky ruefully admitted, had the Bolsheviks been sincere about peace in the first place, they could have gotten a much better deal.
The Bolsheviks were saved from themselves by the failure of Germany’s Operation Michael – its final offensive on the Western Front – and the ensuing armistice, whose preconditions included the annulment of Brest-Litovsk. While the Bolsheviks were now able to repudiate the treaty’s terms, they couldn’t escape its consequences, which fed into the upheavals of Russia’s catastrophic civil war.
In 1918 the Bolsheviks got carried away by their revolutionary rhetoric, while the Germans faced up to the reality of their impending military defeat.
Peace with Putin will be repugnant, but surely preferable to the folly of continuing to fight an unwinnable war.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/geo ... t-litovsk/
I do not believe there can be peace without the complete neutralization of Ukraine as a US pawn.
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 20/10/2024
Zelensky's Victory Plan week has culminated with Joe Biden's visit to Berlin and the US meeting with the leaders of its three main allies in Western Europe: Germany, France and the United Kingdom. "The United States will always be with its friends: for peace, security and prosperity," wrote the official US presidential account on social media, accompanying an image of a smiling Joe Biden alongside Keir Starmer, Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron. Despite the message, the conversation does not take place at a time when peace and security are the main issues. The differences between the four allies have been few in the last year when it comes to the practically unconditional support for Israel despite the massive destruction of Gaza and now Lebanon and a cost in civilian victims far higher than the two and a half years of war between the armies of Russia and Ukraine, the main topic of the meeting. Delayed as a result of Hurricane Milton, a crisis that the current president did not want to appear to be indifferent to, the brief European meeting has little to do with the Rammstein summit that Zelensky had hoped to attend.
Aware that war fatigue weighs on allies when promises of success do not become reality and that he has to compete with Israel for Washington's favor, a fight in which he has everything to lose, the Ukrainian president wanted to have the attention of the heads of government of his allies and most important suppliers. At that meeting, Zelensky was to present his Victory Plan collectively, showing the existing hierarchies. The Ukrainian president had already detailed his proposal to Joe Biden, the most important person when it comes to implementing the plan , and was preparing to announce his five points before the national Parliament. Between these presentations, the Rammstein summit was to take place, cancelled due to the electoral needs of the Democratic Party, which needed the most presidential Joe Biden who would prioritize the domestic agenda over the international one. With just two weeks to go until the elections, it is clear that it is the national and not the foreign policy proposals that will determine the result. However, the scant US reaction to Zelensky's plan is also a confirmation that the election period requires not announcing decisions that could prove costly. That is why we did not expect an American announcement on lifting the veto on the use of Western missiles against Russian territory, nor a clear response to the first point of Zelensky's proposal, the immediate invitation to join NATO, an issue that would undoubtedly have been an important question at the failed Rammstein summit.
Zelensky replaced the missed opportunity to address all his allies as a group with a trip to several European capitals, an appearance in a Rada used only to nod effusively to the president and finally a belligerent speech in Brussels. Ukraine has managed to place the idea of the Victory Plan in the press, but it has not achieved the desired effect due to a combination of circumstances: a perceived lack of realism by Western allies, internal divisions on some of the key issues and the US electoral condition. “Although all NATO members have agreed that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” towards accession, the United States and Germany have opposed formally inviting Kiev to join for fear of an escalation of the conflict with Russia. Some officials have also privately speculated about using NATO membership as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Moscow,” writes the Financial Times this week without explaining how the West is going to convince Russia to accept the NATO issue as part of the negotiations, one of the reasons for the Russian military intervention.
Good wishes and promises for the future are not enough for Ukraine, which is demanding the immediate invitation it expects before the end of Biden's term. The cancellation of the Rammstein summit and its replacement by an informal and sparse meeting of Biden and three European leaders shows that Ukraine's allies do not share kyiv's urgency. Ukraine's rush to get the NATO prize and permission to use Western missiles on Russian territory is due to fear of the arrival at the White House of Donald Trump, who this week referred to the war in terms that are annoying to Zelensky and his entourage. "He should never have allowed that war to start. The war is a loser," said the Republican candidate on Thursday in an appearance on a conservative podcast. Zelensky seemed confident in his ability to convince Trump in a face-to-face meeting, but their recent meeting does not seem to have changed the opinion of the American tycoon who insisted that the war would never have occurred during his presidency and who, to the surprise of the media, blamed Joe Biden and not Vladimir Putin for its outbreak.
“Under President Bush, Russia invaded Georgia. Under President Obama, Russia took Crimea. Under the current administration, Russia is going after all of Ukraine,” Trump said, adding that “under President Trump, Russia took nothing.” “It would have been so easy. If there had been a president with half a brain, it would have been so easy to resolve,” Trump boasted, forgetting that during his mandate he was unable to resolve the Donbass conflict, which is much more accessible than the current one and in which his policy was a direct continuation of the approaches inherited from Obama-Biden.
Trump's coming to power poses a significant risk for Ukraine, despite the work of the Republican lobby group that is trying to change the candidate's opinion. One of these people is Marc Thiessen, a member of the conservative think-tank American Enterprise Institute and a regular face on Fox News , Donald Trump's favourite television channel, who in his latest article for The Washington Post lists the similarities between the Ukrainian president and the Republican candidate, whom he sees as two outsiders who forged their careers in television but who abandoned lucrative careers for the good of their state and have confronted the deep state . Their hatred of Nord Stream is another common element highlighted by the lobbyist who, recalling Trump's harshness against Russia - and against countries close to Russia such as Venezuela or Iran - insists that a bad relationship between Trump and Zelensky should not be taken for granted.
The tension between the two countries, which has been on display since their brief meeting in New York, now weighs more than the possibility of a future understanding. But regardless of who wins the November elections, Ukraine seems to be aware that it will have to continue to put pressure on its partners to achieve what it expects. It is to them that the ultimatum is addressed, which is, in fact, the Victory Plan , a document that promises victory and economic benefits in exchange for a collective effort that, as of today, Ukraine's suppliers are not willing to make. However, the initial "no" from the allies does not have to be permanent. That is, at least, the approach of Ukraine, which sees the invitation to join NATO as the political equivalent of miracle weapons. "The invitation to join NATO will raise the morale of our population and our soldiers," insisted Zelensky, referring to the promise of membership, not even to actual entry into the Alliance. The same effect was expected in the case of, for example, Leopard tanks or F-16s, which would automatically change the nature of war.
As in those cases, which required months of media campaigns and lobbying, Kiev is ready to fight for its plan . “The reaction to the victory plan is exactly the same as with the Patriots, F16s… But we have to do it. It is the only way we can survive,” Zelensky said, implicitly confirming his partners’ initial refusal to the proposal and making it clear that Ukraine never takes no for an answer. In the absence of a Rammstein summit, any format is good for this.
https://slavyangrad.es/2024/10/20/30781/
Google Translator
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From Cassad's Telegram account:
Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense (as of October 20, 2024) Main points:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 90 servicemen in the area of responsibility of the Northern Group of Forces;
— Daily losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of responsibility of the Western Group of Forces amounted
to more than 450 servicemen; — The Center Group defeated five enemy brigades in the DPR, repelled 9 counterattacks, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 460 servicemen per day;
— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 50 servicemen and two ammunition depots in the area of responsibility of the Dnepr Group;
— The Vostok Group defeated a brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Dobrovolye area in the DPR, repelled a counterattack, the enemy lost up to 110 servicemen;
— The Russian Air Defense Forces shot down 5 HIMARS projectiles and 142 Ukrainian UAVs per day.
Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the formations of the 141st Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the 35th Marine Brigade, the 124th and 126th Territorial Defense Brigades in the areas of the settlements of Kamenskoye in the Zaporizhia region, Dneprovskoye, Nikolskoye in the Kherson region and the city of Kherson.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 50 servicemen, seven vehicles and a Plastun electronic reconnaissance station. Two ammunition depots and military-technical equipment were destroyed.
Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged temporary deployment points of foreign mercenaries, workshops for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles, places of their preparation and launch in the Sumy and Kharkov regions, as well as concentrations of enemy manpower and military equipment in the 131st district.
Air defense systems shot down five US-made HIMARS rockets and 142 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 33,966 unmanned aerial vehicles, 582 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,740 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,478 multiple launch rocket systems, 16,418 field artillery pieces and mortars, 27,430 units of special military vehicles.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin
Google Translator
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Zelensky Once More Puts Allies Under Nuclear Shadow
Simplicius
Oct 18, 2024
A new central flashpoint around the issue of Ukraine obtaining nuclear weapons has suddenly taken hold of the narrative after Zelensky appeared to imply that Ukraine’s future can only be secured either via NATO or nuclear weapons. In fact, he said that’s what he explained to Trump and may be the real root kernel of his ‘Victory Plan’:
(Videos at link.)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... join-nato/
Julian Roepcke at BILD went on to report that some high-ranking Ukrainian official disclosed that if given the order, Ukraine can build a nuke “within a matter of weeks”:
The Official specializing in weapons procurement, said in a closed round: "We have the Material, we have the Knowledge. If there is, the arrangement, we need only a few weeks until the first bomb.“
The West should be "less about Russia's red lines, instead of thinking a lot more about our red lines," the warning of the Official.
He was forced to defend himself after another round of backlash:
However, after the report caused a firestorm, Zelensky’s press office was forced to issue an official refutation of Roepcke’s statements:
The Office of the President of Ukraine denied reports of the tabalid Bild that the Ukrainian authorities are allegedly seriously considering the possibility of restoring nuclear stockpiles.
According to Dmytro Lytvyn, adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, it has long been possible to confuse where the words of military columnists Bild Julian Röpack, and where are the statements of Russian propagandists, writes Channel 24.
"Therefore, both Röpke and Russian propaganda "throw the same nonsense into the information space," he added.
Interestingly, the above publication also notes the following, insinuating that as a last desperate line of defense Ukraine would rapidly obtain nukes if Russia were to assault Kiev again:
According to Bild analyst Julian Röpke, Zelensky's statement came as a “shock” to Western journalists. He claims that a few months ago, a senior Ukrainian official allegedly told the publication and other members of a narrow circle of politicians and officials that Ukraine would not accept a second Russian army offensive on Kyiv.
“We have materials, we have knowledge. If there is an order, it will take us only a few weeks to get the first bomb. The West should “think less about Russia's red lines and much more about our red lines,” the Ukrainian official said, according to the journalist.
Zelensky himself immediately began to walk back his statements after realizing the hot-water he may have landed himself in with his sponsors:
(Videos at link.)
First a couple quick obligatory clarifications. Zelensky himself continues to spout the debunked lie that Ukraine “gave up its nuclear weapons” during the Budapest Memorandum.
Here’s the truth again:
Ukraine never had control over those nukes. Secondly, it was revealed that it was actually the US itself rather than Russia that forced Ukraine to give up its nukes during that period, not wanting live nukes to fall into the hands of some failed state. Sure, Ukraine would not have been able to launch them, but could have potentially cracked them open and sold the enriched plutonium to bad actors on the black market.
<snip>
WASHINGTON (AP) — Months into Russia's war in Ukraine, the United States had intelligence pointing to “highly sensitive, credible conversations inside the Kremlin” that President Vladimir Putin was seriously considering using nuclear weapons to avoid major battlefield losses, journalist Bob Woodward reported in his new book, “War.”
The U.S. intelligence pointed to a 50% chance that Putin would use tactical nukes if Ukrainian forces surrounded 30,000 Russian troops in the southern city of Kherson, the book says. Just months before, in the far northeast, Ukrainian troops had stunned the Russians by recapturing Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, and were pivoting to liberate Kherson, strategically located on the Dnieper River not far from the Black Sea.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan stared “with dread” at the intelligence assessment — described as coming from the best sources and methods — in late September 2022, seven months after Russia's invasion, the book says. It caused alarm across the Biden administration, moving the chance of Russia using nukes up from 5% to 10% to now 50%.
According to Woodward's account, President Joe Biden told Sullivan to "get on the line with the Russians. Tell them what we will do in response.”
He said to use language that was threatening but not too strong, the book says. Biden also reached out to Putin directly in a message, warning of the “catastrophic consequences” if Russia used nuclear weapons.
The famed Watergate reporter’s latest book also details Donald Trump's conversations with Putin since leaving office, Biden’s frustrations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and more. The Associated Press obtained an early copy of Woodward's book, which is due out next week.
The other now famous exchange from the book:
In another heated conversation laid out in Woodward’s book, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confronted his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, in October 2022.
“We know you are contemplating the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” Austin said, according to Woodward. “Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale against anybody would be seen by the United States and the world as a world-changing event. There is no scale of nuclear weapons that we could overlook or that the world could overlook.”
As Shoigu listened, Austin pressed on, noting that the U.S. had not given Ukraine certain weapons and had restricted the use of some of those it had provided. He warned that those constraints would be reconsidered. He also noted that China, India, Turkey and Israel would isolate Russia if it used nuclear weapons.
“I don’t take kindly to being threatened,” Shoigu responded, the book says.
“Mr. Minister,” Austin said. “I am the leader of the most powerful military in the history of the world. I don’t make threats.”
The point is that the US was apparently extremely spooked and took the threat of nuclear use very seriously. This is now being used as explanation for why, precisely, Biden has been so careful of Russia’s red lines since that time, and has refused to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory. Something about that early exchange must have really convinced them that Russia was in fact prepared to use tactical nukes. Zelensky knowing this could be playing the nuke card in order to bait out a Russian nuclear response, or at least a preliminary one—like the preparation of tactical nukes for combat use—in order to stir up provocation and confrontation.
This last poignant take underscores the above. Biden was convinced that going too hard on Russia would back it into a corner and raise the nuclear stakes, which ironically is one of the accusations levied by the Ukrainian side for a long time now—that the US has been too scared to “defeat” Russia in full:
Back in 2022, the White House realized that they were “stuck” in the war in Ukraine.
This is stated in the book “War” by American journalist Bob Woodward, which publishes private conversations of American politicians.
It is reported that in November 2022, President Biden and his adviser Sullivan had a conversation regarding the prospects for conflict.
“If we do not expel Russia completely from Ukraine, then to some extent we will allow Putin to achieve what he wants. And if we manage to kick them out, we risk nuclear war. Putin will not allow himself to be driven out of here without the use of nuclear weapons. So we're stuck. Too much success - nuclear, too little - incomprehensible long-term consequences,” Woodward reports Biden’s words.
Thus, the most desirable outcome of the war for the US leadership is either to get Putin to agree to freeze the conflict, or to wait for something to break down in Russia itself, according to the book cited by the Babel publication.
Earlier from the book it became known that the United States, against the backdrop of its defeats in Ukraine, in the fall of 2022.
(More at link.)
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zel ... lies-under
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Ukraine - Threat Of North Korean Soldiers Is Based on U.S. Info Campaign
Earlier this week I pointed to a Ukrainian (South Korean, U.S.') propaganda campaign which claims that thousands of North Korean soldiers will soon fight with on the Russian side against Ukraine:
To have North Koreans fighting in Russia against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk would make little sense. That incursion is for one already mostly defeated.
Besides that the language and cultural problems would make the integration of such forces into Russian military operations nearly impossible. I am sure that the Russian military would be strongly against it.
Zelenski's claims were amplified through various proxies and media appearances:
...
I regard the whole claim of North Korean troops in Russia as a fake news story and I am sure that most experts will follow me in that judgment.
However, today U.S. media manage to play up the nonsense:
Why North Korea is sending soldiers to the Russian front lines - Washington Post, Oct 15 2024
...
I do not believe that any politician or military in the west will believe that nonsense which is again solely sourced to Ukrainian military intelligence claims. But there is clear campaign by the Ukrainian government to make the issue stick.
At the time of writing the above I did not know that the idea for this campaign came from RAND, the Pentagon's think tank which often proposes strategic ideas. In a commentary about Russian/North Korean and Chinese cooperation published on October 11, three days before the start of Zelenski's campaign, a RAND analyst wrote:
What Should the United States Do?
Given the differences in the objectives of Russia, China, and North Korea, the United States should be mounting major information operations against these three countries to highlight their differences and fuel distrust among them. Doing so would increase the likelihood of decoupling at least some of their partnerships. Some examples of potential information operations seem obvious.
...
Information operations are also possible against Russia and North Korea.
...
[T]he United States should recognize that North Korean military advisors are supporting Russian use of North Korean military supplies in occupied areas of Ukraine.
...
The South Korean Defense Minister has said that North Korea will likely send more of its troops to support Russia, probably on the battlefield. Given Russian attitudes, those troops may well serve as cannon fodder. The North Korean elites need to hear what Kim may do to their sons.
...
This new cooperation between Russia and North Korea is hardly a signal of a budding long-term alliance and U.S. information campaigns could help speed its demise.
Just three days later the Military Intelligence of the Ukrainian army, headed by General Budanov, started to 'leak' claims to the Ukrainian press about North Korean troops in Russia. It is obvious where this came from:
According to a 2024 report by The New York Times, Budanov was one of the members of the elite Unit 2245 of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate trained by CIA.
Since launching the first rumors of 1,500, then 3,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia Budanov has steadily increased the claim:
11,000 North Korean troops will be 'ready to fight' in Ukraine by Nov. 1, Budanov says - Kyiv Independent, Oct 18 2024
The South Korean news agency Yonhap, well known for peddling fake news about North Korea, repeats similar South Korean 'intelligence' claims:
N. Korea decides to send around 10,000 soldiers to support Russia in Ukraine war: Seoul - Yonhap, Oct 18, 2024
U.s. media are also all over the theme. After the Washington Post had peddled the rumors from Ukraine the New York Times also jumped in:
North Korea, Longing for Battle Experience, Eyes Ukraine - New York Times, Oct 16
The NYT report caused some bewilderment:
Left I on the News ⚧️ @leftiblog - 14:07 UTC · Oct 16, 2024
An entire NYT article https://nytimes.com/2024/10/16/world/as ... ussia.html [is] based on the premise that North Korean troops are fighting in Ukraine. Not until the 15th paragraph does the reader learn there’s no evidence for this whatsoever.
Images
NATO agreed with Left I:
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the allies “have no evidence that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fight. But we do know that North Korea is supporting Russia in many ways, weapons supplies, technological supplies, innovation, to support them in the war effort. And that is highly worrying.”
The current election season assured that the propaganda theme would soon expand into the political realm:
Congress demands Biden's response to North Korean troops participation in war against Ukraine - UA Pravda, Oct 19 2024
Mike Turner, Chair of the House Intelligence Committee in the United States, has demanded an "immediate" briefing from the White House amid reports that North Korean troops may be involved in hostilities against Ukraine on the side of Russia.
...
"North Korean troops, either attacking Ukraine from Russian territory or entering into Ukrainian territory, m
Just be a red line for the United States and NATO. Your administration must make that absolutely clear and unequivocal," Turner wrote to Biden.
As the claim of North Korean troops preparing for war in Ukraine still lacked evidence the Ukrainian Intelligence had to fabricate some:
Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo - 11:21 UTC · Oct 18, 2024
BREAKING STUPIDITY: Ukraine shows a North Korean POW! The problem is he speaks Ukrainian, LMAO.
They explain it, that Koreans live close to the border with russia so they learn Russian, ok ... sure but he speaks UKRAINIAN ... LMAO
They took some student from Kiev or something and forced him to do this video!
He recites the Ukrainian poem "Love Ukraine" by Volodymyr Sosiura in Ukrainian and has very good pronunciation. No way he just learned it in 10 minutes, not humanly possible.
Embedded video
There are also two videos which allegedly show North Korean soldiers being outfitted with Russian gear as well as training with them.
North Korean troops seen being kitted out in Russia ahead of likely despatch to Ukraine - CNN, Oct 19, 2024
In a video shared with CNN by Ukrainian government organization, the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security, a long line of soldiers can be seen queuing up to receive their uniforms. The soldiers are thought to be speaking in Korean although the low quality audio prevented their discussions from being fully understood.
However, knowledgeable sources claim that the videos were taken during one of the yearly LAROS maneuvers during which troops from Laos and Russia perform military drills. The caps worn by the soldiers in the -Ukraine provided- CNN video look like the caps of Laotian soldiers.
Shortly after RAND proposed a U.S. information operation campaign around the theme of North Korean soldiers in Russia the Ukrainian military intelligence service under CIA trainee Budanov started to spread rumors of North Korean soldiers soon to fight on the Russian side. The numbers claimed by Budanov have since steadily increased. South Korean intelligence, also associated with the CIA, and U.S. media have joined the campaign. The chair of the House Intelligence Committee is milking the campaign to make political points.
Evidence that was supposed to support the claims has been exposed as being fake. The whole story is thus based on nothing but 'intelligence' rumors which are following a RAND proposed script. Don't fall for it.
Posted by b on October 19, 2024 at 15:57 UTC | Permalink
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/u ... .html#more
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Zelensky’s Nuke Comments Are Sensational & Shouldn’t Be Taken Too Seriously
Andrew Korybko
Oct 18, 2024
The head of the Duma’s defense committee threw cold water on this scenario.
Observers were shocked when Zelensky revealed on Thursday that he supposedly told Trump that Ukraine will either have nuclear weapons or join NATO, which coincided with German outlet Bild citing a high-ranking Ukrainian official to report that his country could build a nuke “in a few weeks” if it wanted. Later that same day, however, Zelensky backtracked during a press conference with the new NATO chief by claiming that “we don’t do nuclear weapons.”
While some folks still suspect that he wants to build nukes and might very well still have the capability to do so in record time if the decision is made, head of the Duma’s defense committee Andrey Kartapolov threw cold water on this scenario in his remarks to RIA Novosti. He said that “This is complete nonsense, they have nothing for this. No competence, no materials, no equipment. Fairy tales about creating nuclear weapons from waste for nuclear fuel are fairy tales for the poorly educated.”
He then added that “Real nuclear weapons are absolutely out of the question. Iran has been trying to create them for so long. Despite having much greater competence, there is still no reliable data that it has created them or not. And Ukraine has not yet started to do this, there is no one to do this there.” Kartapolov didn’t discount the possibility of it creating a “dirty bomb” but reaffirmed that Russia is taking everything into account when assessing such threats.
The takeaway is that Zelensky’s nuke comments are sensational and shouldn’t be taken seriously. It appears that he simply got carried away selling his “Victory Plan” and thus went off script claiming that he told Trump about Ukraine’s nuclear intentions (whether he actually did or not). About that, it was met with a cold reception since NATO already ruled out letting Ukraine join anytime soon, jointly intercepting Russian missiles, and basing their own missiles in Ukraine, which are his “Victory Plan’s” top three pillars.
What’s most interesting about this scandal is that Zelensky briefly brought up the possibility of building nukes before backtracking despite his earlier comments on this in late February 2022 being one of the pretexts for Russia’s special operation, which Putin referenced in his speech on the day that it began. RT also published a detailed article by an ex-Ukrainian diplomat in January 2023 about her country’s nuclear weapons production capabilities. It’s therefore intriguing that Kartapolov just downplayed this scenario.
This mixed messaging is arguably attributable to both sides forgetting about the role that nuclear rhetoric played in the run-up to the special operation. That would explain why Zelensky brought it up in the first place before backtracking and then Kartapolov brushed this possibility off as unlikely. There’s also the chance that Ukraine’s nuclear weapons production capabilities have since been degraded so Kartapolov might not have mixed any messaging up and thus unwittingly contradicted his boss Putin.
A complementary explanation for him soft-peddling the scenario of Ukraine building nukes is that he also doesn’t want anyone to have false expectations about his country intensifying its special operation. Putin chose to wage an improvised “war of attrition” after spring 2022’s draft peace treaty fell through instead of an all-out conventional war due to him prioritizing political goals over military ones as touched upon here. He remains so committed to them that he stayed the course even after Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk.
It accordingly makes sense for Kartapolov not to hype up Zelensky’s rhetorical blunder and thus set Russia’s supporters up for disappointment when Putin doesn’t ramp up the special operation in response. From the opposite perspective, however, Zelensky’s advisors might have feared that Russia could escalate so they told him to swiftly backtrack just in case. Regardless of their motives, the outcome is still the same, and it’s that neither side is interested in pursuing this issue further for now at least.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/zelensky ... ensational
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Geoffrey Roberts – Ukraine: Versailles or Brest-Litovsk?
October 19, 2024
By Geoffrey Roberts, Brave New Europe, 10/4/24
As it reels from one battlefield defeat after another, Ukraine faces a fateful choice: sue for peace or fight to the bitter end.
Ukraine’s ultra-nationalists would prefer purifying blood sacrifice to a shameful defeat, while Western hardliners want to wear Russia down by fighting to the last Ukrainian. This yearning for Ukraine to re-enact a Nazi-style Götterdämmerung is shared by those Russian hardliners who believe in the pursuit of security through total victory.
The alternative to epochal destruction a la 1945 is a 1918-style armistice along the lines of President Putin’s June peace proposal: a ceasefire in exchange for Ukraine’s neutralisation and the complete withdrawal of its armed forces from the four provinces – Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhe – formally incorporated by the Russian Federation in October 2022 – concessions that would then be followed by detailed peace negotiations.
No historical analogy is perfect, but Germany’s armistice with the Entente powers in November 1918 is an instructive example of a war ending in one side’s victory but on terms that fell far short of the unconditional surrenders of World War II.
When Germany ‘surrendered’ in 1918 it ceased all military operations and withdrew its armed forces from foreign occupied territories. Unlike in 1945, Germany remained unoccupied and was promised a negotiated peace treaty. There was also regime-change in the form of the Kaiserreich’s overthrow, but Wilhelm II was replaced by a democratic republic.
The promised peace negotiations took place at Versailles in 1919. German negotiators expected a discussion framed by President Woodrow Wilson’s 14-point peace plan of 1918 – which had signalled a relatively fair and equitable settlement – but they found themselves faced with a non-negotiable diktat.
Under the terms of the Treaty of Versailles, Germany lost territory – notably to newly independent Poland – and was forced to demilitarise and pay billions of dollars in reparations. Germans complained the treaty was humiliation that heaped on them all the blame for the war, but it wasn’t a particularly punitive peace. Germany got off lightly compared to its allies, Austria-Hungary and Turkey, whose empires completely collapsed.
Germany’s people suffered greatly during the early postwar years but by the mid-1920s the country had recovered economically and was fully rehabilitated internationally, having been admitted to the League of Nations. Reparations were effectively null and void and Germany’s armed forces were surreptitiously being rebuilt with help from Soviet Russia, a revolutionary state that was seeking to de-stabilise the capitalist world through diplomacy as well as subversion. The Nazi nightmare of the 1930s wasn’t so much a consequence of Versailles as a result of the Wall Street Crash’s catalysation of a worldwide depression that devastated Germany.
Ukraine is in a much stronger position than was Germany in 1918. It has lost a lot of territory but it does not yet face imminent defeat and occupation and can still inflict heavy damage on Russia’s armed forces. Unlike Germany at Versailles, Ukraine wouldn’t be isolated at any peace conference. It would have powerful western backers and influential support from Putin’s well-wishers in the Global South who want him to make a genuine and durable deal with Kiev that will safeguard Ukraine’s future as an independent sovereign state.
So far, there is no sign Putin has any substantial territorial ambitions beyond those specified by his June peace proposal. Doubtless, he will demand a demilitarised zone, but that could suit Ukraine, too, especially if its results in the return to its sovereignty of territory currently occupied by Russia. Russia won’t pay reparations but nor will it demand them, except for the return by the West of its frozen bank assets. Indeed, there are many ways Russia could aid Ukraine’s postwar recovery, not least in relation to the country’s energy supplies. POWs could be released and children returned. Millions of Ukrainian refugees in Russia as well as Europe would be able to return home. Russia would demand protections for its remaining compatriots in Ukraine and Kiev the safeguarding of its citizens’ interests in Russian-occupied territories. Most important, would be the negotiation of an international security guarantee to protect Ukraine from future invasion by Russia. Such a peace settlement would in turn speed up Ukraine’s entry into the EU.
The 1918 armistice led to a bitter peace for Germany at Versailles, but it saved millions of lives and safeguarded the country’s future.
There is another 1918 historical analogy worth considering: the Brest-Litovsk peace treaty of March 1918.
Having seized power in Russia, at the end of 1917 the Bolsheviks sought a separate peace with Germany. A ceasefire was agreed and negotiations began at Brest-Litovsk. The Bolsheviks, however, did not negotiate in good faith. For Bolshevik leader Lenin, the peace talks were a means to buy time to enable his party to consolidate its grip on power at home and promote revolution abroad. Bolshevik Foreign Commissar, Leon Trotsky, turned the Brest talks into a platform for revolutionary propaganda. But the Germans soon tired of Trotsky’s tactics and threatened to annul the negotiations and resume military operations.
By this time Lenin was losing faith in the imminence of world revolution and was prepared to do a peace deal on German terms, arguing that defence of the revolution in Russia was the prime goal. However, a majority of Bolsheviks – not wishing to dirty their hands by signing an onerous treaty that entailed significant territorial losses – opted for Trotsky’s alternative of ‘neither peace nor war’. Trotsky hoped the Germans would acquiesce in a unilateral declaration of demobilisation by Russia. That tactic backfired spectacularly when the Germans launched an offensive that quickly forced the Bolsheviks to sign a treaty conceding vast swathes of territory, payment of reparations and existence of a separate Ukraine. As Trotsky ruefully admitted, had the Bolsheviks been sincere about peace in the first place, they could have gotten a much better deal.
The Bolsheviks were saved from themselves by the failure of Germany’s Operation Michael – its final offensive on the Western Front – and the ensuing armistice, whose preconditions included the annulment of Brest-Litovsk. While the Bolsheviks were now able to repudiate the treaty’s terms, they couldn’t escape its consequences, which fed into the upheavals of Russia’s catastrophic civil war.
In 1918 the Bolsheviks got carried away by their revolutionary rhetoric, while the Germans faced up to the reality of their impending military defeat.
Peace with Putin will be repugnant, but surely preferable to the folly of continuing to fight an unwinnable war.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/geo ... t-litovsk/
I do not believe there can be peace without the complete neutralization of Ukraine as a US pawn.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."