Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10769
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:20 pm

Bundeswehr Wiretap Bombshell - German Generals Exposed Planning Kerch Strike

ImageSIMPLICIUS THE THINKER
MAR 1, 2024

A bombshell wiretap leak has set the intelligence and geopolitical world ablaze today, revealing high ranking members of the German Bundeswehr openly discussing plans to supply the Taurus missiles and help Ukraine destroy Russia’s Kerch Bridge.

Many are understandably pinning the leak on Russia’s GRU, but it seems just as—if not more—plausible that it was leaked by German insiders themselves in order to thwart the plans of their own deepstate establishment which is clearly bent on starting WWIII.

Before anyone questions the authenticity, let us first begin with the validation by Der Spiegel, who rules it as most likely legit:

Image

Spiegel writes about the authenticity of the audio recording of German officers discussing the attack on the Crimean Bridge.

"After initial analysis, it is presumed that the recording of the meeting is authentic. According to the initial assessment, the possibility of forgery using AI is largely ruled out," the publication reports.


Here are the most damning snippets: (Audio recordings at link.)

As well as another interesting couple: (Audio recordings at link.)

Here is the full recording for those interested—though, caveat, it’s an auto-machine translation and may have irregularities:

And here is a transcript of it provided by RT’s Margarita Simonyan, for those who prefer reading—though you’ll have to do a machine translation in your browser:

https://vk.com/@m_s_simonyan-rasshifrov ... -bundesver

It’s clear that there is an ongoing internal revolt in Europe by the last remaining sane faction against the hardliners pushing WWIII. This is evident by the fact that this entire pressure wave of ‘leaks’ suddenly coincided together from a variety of directions, which included Scholz himself outing British involvement in the war:

Image
https://archive.is/BxskM

Image

Image

In light of Scholz’s disclosures, a slew of revelations have come to light about NATO’s true involvement in the war:

Image

Image
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international ... 440_4.html

But what’s more, according to the Le Monde article above—though it’s behind a paywall—France is considering sending a contingent of special forces to Ukraine specifically to create a “strategic dilemma” for Russia:

Image
https://www.rt.com/russia/593564-france ... ine-media/

The French government allegedly views such a troop deployment as a way of posing a “strategic dilemma” for Moscow, the paper said, adding that it could “constrain” Russia’s targeting and strike capabilities. In particular, it may prove to be “essential” ahead of the arrival of US-made F-16 fighter jets, scheduled to take place later this year, the French daily added.

Keep in mind, ostensibly, they’re referring to a small contingent of troops placed somewhere in the rear to ‘train’ Ukrainian soldiers. But the ‘strategic dilemma’ part is very interesting—what could they possibly mean by that?

The article makes some interesting revelations. For instance, it seems to suggest that the timed release of all the current hints is a precisely choreographed CIA campaign meant specifically to give signals to Moscow:

US intelligence services's controlled transparency operation – known as "campaigning" – is part of their plan to reinforce a form of strategic ambiguity that was initiated by Monday's meeting of allies in Paris, several sources close to the matter told Le Monde. Although the US was not involved in the precise wording of what Macron was going to say and may have been surprised by his remarks, the prospect of sending Western troops to Ukraine had been talked about in advance. The US had also sent a representative to Paris. The growing pressure from Moscow on Europe's eastern flank is worrying the US as much as the other participants.

On the aspect of ‘strategic dilemma’ they note specifically:

Image

But here is the final and most important paragraph of the entire article, which ties directly into things I’ve been writing about and predicting here from the very beginning:

Paris wants to provide Kyiv training in surface-to-air defense in particular, which has been targeted by the Russians. The presence of French soldiers, or those of other nationalities, would potentially secure certain areas of Ukrainian territory and severely restrict Moscow's current unfettered bombing. An allied presence would also prove essential to the promised arrival of American-built F-16s in Ukraine in 2024.

And that, folks, is what gives the true game away.

Recall my earliest predictions about NATO coming in to ‘secure’ certain critical areas of West Ukraine from Russian takeover at the final hour when all else fails and it seems certain that Russia will overrun the AFU. I spoke specifically about Odessa, with the 101st and 82nd coming to dogpile and squat on it simply in the hopes that Russia will cautiously refuse to send troops, in fear of ‘clashing’ with NATO forces and starting WWIII.

It seems the French have got the same idea, though it may be for a different area or areas—hoping that by simply placing troops there, Russia will hesitate from striking the critical infrastructure for fear of killing NATO soldiers.

Interestingly, however, soon after French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne rejected this possibility:

Image
https://www.rt.com/news/593559-no-comba ... ne-france/

No combat troops will be sent to Ukraine, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne told Radio France Inter on Friday. Earlier, the nation’s president Emmanuel Macron told journalists that NATO could entertain such a possibility in the future.

Paris would not risk a direct conflict between Moscow and the US-led bloc, Sejourne said when asked to comment on Macron’s remarks. “Everything we do is to avoid war” between Russia and NATO, the minister said, adding that the French government did not want to increase the level of anxiety among its citizens.


A new poll from Le Figaro likewise showed 68% of French citizens do not approve of troop deployment to Ukraine:

Image

68 percent of French people do not approve of Emmanuel Macron's position on the possibility of introducing Western troops into Ukraine, 31 percent agree. This is according to a poll published by Le Figaro newspaper

However, on the heels of these bombshells, Canada attempted to join the fray:

Image
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/29/ ... krainians/

The Canadian Minister of National Defense, Bill Blair stated today that Canada is willing to Participate in a NATO-Led Training Mission for Ukraine, which would involve the Deployment of a Limited Contingent of Canadian Servicemembers into Ukraine, who would assist in the Training of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and act in a Non-Combatant Role against Russia away from the Frontlines.

You can see the desperate, seeking attempts to find any lifeline for Ukraine. The NATO/EU nomenklatura are scrambling to create any possible conditions that may give Ukraine a tiny leg up, or even some leeway or breathing room for a few months.

In general, though, this recent spate of threatening announcements could simply be a message to Russia: in essence, a warning in attempt to get Russia to make concessions about resolving the conflict, or simply to keep it from pursuing the most maximalist goals.

This of course all stems from the urgency inherent to Russia’s growing battlefield initiative, where Russian forces continue breaking through Ukrainian lines, generating total trepidation across the Western globalist ruling class:

<snip>

For the last part, let’s move into some of the battlefield updates which are, after all, driving much of the frenetic urgency we’re seeing out of the West, which is responsible for the latest leak fiasco. If it wasn’t for Russia’s overwhelming battlefield successes, and Ukraine’s concomitant ongoing collapse, we wouldn’t see these drastic and risky measures taking place.

The only thing I want to cover today in this regard is the current ‘meta’ surrounding the Avdeevka line collapse. We’ve discussed how most of it is owed to Ukraine’s inability to build proper second echelon defenses on this axis, for a variety of reasons which include corruption and embezzlement.

From a Ukrainian source:

Image
Image

One notable aspect missing from much of the analysis here is the fact that Ukraine’s collapse was precipitated in large part to order-spurning mutinies, with units like the 47th outright countermanding their own leadership to flee on their own. This has created chaos in this direction which the Ukrainian command is desperate to hide and sweep under the rug. But the truth has slowly come to light from several videos of captured AFU who confirm that they first withdrew, and only then the official order of withdrawal issued in order to save face.

For instance, listen to this recent POW’s brief words: (Video at link.)

The 110th brigade was also said to have been mostly destroyed and is now being removed to the rear for reconstitution:

Image

The writing is on the wall—even Ukrainian officials see what is obvious, that a domino effect may soon precipitate, with many areas falling one after the other: (Video at link.)

So, what is the big concern in the Avdeevka axis in particular, besides the lack of constructed defenses? Here’s one view from a Russian military analyst:

Yevgeny Krutikov: "Behind the new line of defence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which has developed in the Avdeyevka area at the moment (provisionally around Orlovka), an empty space has opened up in which there are no natural obstacles capable of supporting new defensive fortifications."

Yevgeny Krutikov: "There is nothing like this up to the next major settlements of the Donbass, primarily Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsky). The enemy has not strengthened the small villages there in any way, thinking it wouldn’t be necessary."


What he’s saying is, behind Orlovka, which Russian forces were said to have taken today, there are no good, naturally defensible positions all the way up to Pokrovsk. And this happens to be precisely where all the current talk revolves around.

For reference, here’s the current defense line which is a temporary transit point that Ukraine has already mostly lost:

Image

But the Vovcha River is the central focus of the commentariat presently, as being the first truly defensible position Ukraine can reliably fall back to in the medium term—a point Big Serge underscores:

Image

The natural defensive barrier of the river shown in yellow below:

Image

One Russian military linked channel says the river will be reached by end of March:

Two small boilers were formed near Avdiivka-between three settlements: Tonenke-Orlovka-Berdychy. They record conversations between military personnel, equipment and personnel. These "dead men" should slow down the advance of the Russian army, which is expected to reach the watershed of the Volchya River by the end of March. The next frontier for our infantry will be the Umanskaya-Novoselovka line to the west. The enemy will not have time to dig in well there and will not hold these villages.[/img]

And a Ukrainian take:

from Ukrainian channel

evening 02/28/2024

[The cascade of reservoirs should contribute to our defense in the Avdeevsky direction, - press secretary of the AFU Tavria OSUV (Group) Likhovoy]

PS

The APU will withdraw (while preserving HP as much as possible) beyond the Karlovskoye Reservoir and a chain of reservoirs, floodplains and streams along the vector to Ocheretino.

While the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fighting for the villages of Pervomaiskoye and Netailovo, their rear forces will be building new lines of defense behind the Karlovsky water chron at a frantic pace.

(our videoconferencing and high-precision technology will help them). Because the dam explosion will be blamed on our FABs in any case.

It is possible that several dams in the adjacent ponds and the Charles Dam itself will be blown up during our offensive.


This is further supported by Rezident UA channel:

Our source in the General Staff said that Syrsky gave the team to prepare Selidovo for defense and the creation of a fortified area from the city, while Pokrovsk, which now brings technology and BC, should become the main center of resistance.
The command has already transferred more than ten thousand military personnel to that area, who occupy empty houses and apartments, to create defensive structures.


Not to mention the following:

MI-6 handed over new intelligence to the Office of the President and the General Staff, which contains information on the preparation by the Russian army of four new strike corps for the spring offensive in eastern Ukraine. British intelligence believes that the Kremlin wants to collapse the front and seize new territories in order to strengthen its position in a protracted war.



As a final note:

Here’s a very evocative video of Orlovka, just to the west of Lastochkino in Avdeevka: (Video at link.)

Most striking are the gigantic Fab-500 craters, which are distinct from the regular 152mm shell craters moonscaping the surroundings. Julian Roepcke once more grieved at the sight of it, describing how Ukrainian positions were annihilated by the endless waves of Russian glide bombs, and how they stand no chance because of it:

Image

He further elucidates the situation:

Image
Image

Lastly:

This quite astute observation from an ex-chairman of the NATO military committee, Harald Kujat, regarding the fallacy of ‘wunderwaffen’—like the Taurus missiles—saving Ukraine in any way: (Video at link.)

The opinion that Western arms supplies will turn the strategic situation at the front in Kiev’s favor is a fallacy. The ex-chairman of the NATO military committee, Harald Kujat, speaks about this. He also reminded the audience that “there were negotiations in Istanbul with an excellent result for Ukraine.”

“All the dead Ukrainians, as well as all the dead or wounded Russians after April 9, are due to the fact that Ukraine was not allowed to sign this peace treaty,” says Kujat.


https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/bun ... ell-german

(Much more at link, check him out.)

******

The Russian army is successfully Sovietizing, weak Ukrainian defense lines, fears of May

A look at military analysis and prognoses by Ukrainian experts

EVENTS IN UKRAINE
MAR 2, 2024

The Ukrainian media space has been quite gloomy of late.

Image

On February 29, former advisor to the President’s Office and self-styled military expert Alexey Arestovich gave an interesting analysis of the changing organizational structures of the two armies on the frontline. Analyzing the reasons for the loss of Avdiivka and the ongoing retreat there, he writes that Russia appears to be successfully transitioning to the organizational structure of the Soviet army:

“Avdiivka was stormed by three Russian armies + a tank division. These are units with unchanging personnel, with unified logistics and a management system. For us, in contrast, everything above a brigade is an assembled body that can be managed from elsewhere.

We saw elements of operational camouflage in the creation of a group/concentration of forces. Deception, cunning, disinformation - in the best traditions of the Red Army.

Massing of forces. The Russians are enhancing the artillery capabilities of their units and formations - up to the creation of artillery brigades within an army of combined arms units.

The number of guided aerial bombs used is increasing every month. In the defense area of Avdiivka, in one day, there were 250 hits.

The irretrievable losses of the Russian grouping in taking Avdiivka are ~30% of the grouping. Yet, they captured the fortified district. Soviet standards - 12-20% for an army operation.

Avdiivka is their first operational-tactical level success, associated with the drift towards the Soviet system. The deadlock on the front, which Valeriy Zaluzhny talked about in the article for "The Economist," was overcome not by technical means, but by organizational ones.

When they fully transition to the Soviet system - we can expect them to start achieving operational level successes, as it is ideal for this type of war - given their initial conditions.

For them, to make us lose all of the Left Bank [everything east of Kiev and the Dniepr river], they need about five such operations.

They are increasing capabilities and reducing the intervals between operations. A year ago they took up to six months for concentration of efforts and preparation. This will be reduced to four months or less, if there are no strategic scale black swans (planning should be based on the assumption that there won't be any).

Not only I have been saying from the start of the war that Russia's problem in this war is that they set Soviet goals without having Soviet capabilities. And now they are gradually pulling their capabilities up to Soviet levels, as much as possible.

All our (and theirs, by the way) dreams about Western structures, Western technology, and Western strategy - are complete nonsense. We currently have neither Soviet capabilities nor Western ones, and they are catching up to the Soviet ones.

What's our response?

Valeriy Zaluzhny was not allowed to form divisions and armies - units and formations of permanent composition, with their own logistics and permanent management bodies, capable of solving the task of breaking through long-term, echeloned defense of the enemy and creating/maintaining such defense.

It's against NATO standards!..

Idiots, instead of creating a national military school, tailored to our specific conditions, choosing the best from different systems, are killing the army under a concept that:

we will never see,

which is not suitable for large-scale wars on its own.

Soon we will fully experience these "…NATO standards". There are no fortifications at Chasov Yar, was it too much trouble to dig, it wasn’t standard? What about after Avdiivka - no? Kramatorsk?", writes Arestovich.

Image
Yury Butusov, a Poroshenko aligned hyper-nationalist military journalist, also made worrying prognoses on Feb 27:

"No words. There's a disconnect: here in Kyiv, the Supreme Commander says one thing, but on the front line, something completely different is happening. I want to say: no field fortification lines have been built behind Avdiivka so far. I saw how our soldiers, in holes in the middle of a field, are attacked by Russian drones," said Butusov.

According to him, serious problems exist which cannot be overcome by the government’s constant appeal to intensify mobilization of human resources:

"If the authorities cannot find builders to construct at least basic rear defense lines, if they cannot find engineers to service modern technology, drones, sensors, communications, if they cannot find workers and technologists to produce ammunition, then there will never be enough assault troops," the journalist added.

Image

Others combined their pessimism with a demand to mobilize more Ukrainians. Masi Naiem is part of a venerable family of Ukrainian euro-optimists, his brother, Mustafa Naiem, being the famous journalist that began the Euromaidan protests back on the 21st of November, 2013 (he subsequently became a not-very-successful board member of the state military industrial company). His brother, Masi, lost his eye while fighting the Russian army. In a 26 February interview, he claimed that Ukraine is likely to lose its statehood, especially if mobilization is not intensified, even of those who are ‘not motivated’ to fight.

"People [who worry about mobilization impeding their work-life balance] need to understand something very important. This is not a distant probability. These threats are so real that, figuratively speaking, the month of May does not seem Ukrainian to me, and, if certain things do not happen now, it is quite likely that by May you will need to plan to live in another country, if you are a patriot, because you will not be able to live here under the Russians. Now you can shove that 'motivation' and go live in Poland with those idiots who are now dumping grain. You now have to choose your motivation: either you take action yourself and defend this state, or go to the Poles."

May has particular significance - Zelensky’s presidential term will run out at that time, and lately he has been ringing the alarm about supposed ‘Russian plots to discredit our government’ through the use of this fact. Hopefully an upcoming rundown of recent news will go into that.

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... ccessfully

*******

Analyzing The Leaked Bundeswehr Recording About Bombing The Crimean Bridge

Image

ANDREW KORYBKO
MAR 2, 2024

The takeaway from this scandal is that elite elements within the Bundeswehr are serious about further embroiling their country in the Ukrainian Conflict despite the increasing risk of the West’s undeclared but limited hot war with Russia spiraling into World War III by miscalculation.

RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan was the first to report on Friday about Russia’s possession of a leaked Bundeswehr recording implicating the German Armed Forces in a plot to bomb the Crimean Bridge. The transcript and audio were subsequently released by Sputnik here. The German Defense Ministry then launched an investigation, after which national media cited sources to report that Berlin believes that the recording is indeed authentic and not an AI hoax.

It turns out that four Air Force personnel were involved in this scandalous conversation, two of whom are senior members such as the department head for operations and exercises and the Air Force Inspector, while the remaining two are employees at the Space Operations Center. They began by saying that they want to prepare for the possibility of Chancellor Olaf Scholz approving the shipment of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine and questioning why he’s thus far blocked these deliveries.

Speculation about them simply not working was acknowledged but downplayed, with the conversation then shifting to ways in which Ukraine could fire these missiles if they receive them. They also referenced the methods employed by the British and French to deliver similar arms, but then they concluded that it’ll be difficult to dispatch them right away. Speeding up the shipment, they warned, could lead to errors in their use like “hit[ting] a kindergarten, and there will be civilian casualties again.”

Nevertheless, one of them suggested sending batches of missiles at five each, but then they wondered who’d pay for this and related production details. Another issue is training the Ukrainians, which could allegedly take three to four months and occur in Germany. Someone also suggested that the British could help with technical issues related to mounts and whatnot given their experience with this. Another important point is retaining plausible deniability the whole time in order to avoid uncomfortable optics.

To the surprise of no astute observer, someone remarked that “there are numerous people [in Ukraine] in civilian attire who speak with an American accent”, thus indirectly confirming the presence of Americans inside the conflict zone who they said could help Ukrainians operate the Taurus missiles. Something else that was interesting about this conversation was one of these officials hinting that Germany feels pressured to follow France and the UK’s lead by sending its own long-range missiles too.

They then started talking about hitting the Crimean Bridge, perhaps after recalling the British Storm Shadows’ role in last summer’s attack, concluding that around 20 missiles might be needed to destroy it. The reason why they’re interested in targeting that piece of civilian infrastructure isn’t because of its military-strategic importance, which someone said is no longer as much as before due to the ground corridor that’s been established these past two years, but because of its political significance.

In the event that the “initial task” is only to hit ammo depots instead of the Crimean Bridge, someone noted, everything can proceed a lot faster. They also said that “The longer they take to make a decision, the longer it will take us to implement it. We need to break everything down into stages. Start with the simple first, and then move on to the complex. Or we can ask the British if they can support us at the initial stage, and have them take on the planning issues?”

Reflecting on these main points from mid-February’s secret recording that Berlin reportedly believes is authentic, it can be assessed that the initial reaction here about the Bundeswehr going behind Scholz’s back was accurate since they’re already making detailed plans without his approval. They also indirectly confirmed the presence of American, British, and French troops on Ukrainian soil, who are advising that country and directly helping it utilize their foreign-supplied arms against Russia.

What few observers have yet to draw attention to, however, is the remark about how “there might be an error in its use, the missile might hit a kindergarten, and there will be civilian casualties again” if the timeframe is sped up for delivering these missiles before the Ukrainians are ready to operate them. This could be interpreted as tacit admission that Ukraine not only hit civilian sites before on accident, but that this was partially the West’s fault for giving them arms that they weren’t properly trained to use.

It's not mentioned in the conversation, but the context suggests that the West’s solution was to dispatch troops there like Scholz strongly implied last week that France and the UK have already done in connection with their own long-range missile shipments to Ukraine to assist with “target control”. The Air Force officials involved in mid-February’s secret recording didn’t allude to any interest in following suit, but it can’t be ruled out that they might either be allowed to or decide to do this unilaterally.

After all, they spent a lot of time discussing how Ukraine could use their missiles as soon as possible if the decision is made to send them, so they could either convince Scholz to dispatch troops there like France and the UK already did for this purpose or go on their own and make this a fait accompli. The dual pretext for either scenario is to reduce the chance of civilian casualties and deal damage to Russia (including political with respect to the Crimean Bridge) sooner rather than later.

The takeaway from this scandal is that elite elements within the Bundeswehr are serious about further embroiling their country in the Ukrainian Conflict despite the increasing risk of the West’s undeclared but limited hot war with Russia spiraling into World War III by miscalculation. The real threat to Germany therefore isn’t the left and right working together like the Washington Post fearmongered last April, but these powerful military figures who have no compunction about flirting with the apocalypse.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/analyzin ... -recording

It would be no surprise if the US 'owned' half the generals on the planet.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10769
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Mar 03, 2024 1:17 pm

Missiles, the Crimean Bridge and the escalation of war
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 03/03/2024

Image

Just a few hours after German media such as Der Spiegel or the Bild tabloid took it for granted, the German Ministry of Defense confirmed the veracity of the telephone conversation leaked on Friday by Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of RT . Obviously intercepted by Russian intelligence, the publication caused special rejection among the Russian audience as it was a dialogue in which several German soldiers seemed to plan or, at least, speculate on the possibility of destroying the Kerch bridge that connects Crimea with continental Russia. A few hours before the official confirmation, Chancellor Olaf Scholz had declared that “what is being reported is a very serious matter and, therefore, it is now being investigated very carefully, very intensely and very quickly.”

On this occasion, unlike in cases such as Nord Stream, in which everything indicates that the investigations point to an ally and not the enemy, Germany managed to quickly solve the mystery. Less than 24 hours after the recording was published, a Defense spokesperson confirmed to AFP that “according to our assessment, a conversation from the aviation division has been intercepted. “We are currently not in a position to say for sure whether the recording or the transcribed version that is circulating on social media has been modified.”

“German army officers were discussing the delivery of powerful Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine according to a leak of a recording published on Friday by the Russian state-controlled media Russia Today ,” Politico wrote yesterday, focusing on who published the leak and not in the content of the conversation. In a much shorter article than usual, the outlet makes only two mentions of the content of the conversation. In the first, in which he again insists on the authorship of the publication, he states that “officers of the German air forces, the Bundeswehr, discuss how aviation could provide technical support for the delivery of Taurus missiles, a hypothetical political decision by the German chancellor. Olaf Scholz. In the second, Politico explains that “during the recorded conversation, the military officers also discuss possible targets such as the Kerch bridge, which connects Russia with occupied Crimea.”

The leak occurs at a difficult time for Olaf Scholz, who this week opted for the tactic of attack to defend himself against the reproaches of countries such as France and the United Kingdom, which are trying to pressure the German Chancellor to finally approve the delivery of Taurus missiles, with a range of more than 500 kilometers. To repel the Franco-British offensive, Scholz has not only referred to the need for no German soldier to be linked to the selection or hitting of targets in the current war, but has suggested that it is British and French officers who control the Storm Shadow or SCALP systems that their countries have sent to Ukraine. And it is not necessary to leak a conversation between Western officials to know that the Crimean bridge is one of the priority objectives for Ukraine and the main hawks among its allies such as, for example, Philip Breedlove, who has insisted since 2022 on the need to tear down the bridge.

With his words this week and his refusal not only to send ground troops but even soldiers to support Ukraine in the management of these missile systems, the German chancellor has shown himself to be the last barrier in an increasingly probable escalation of war. As happened a year ago with the Leopard tanks, which Scholz was reluctant to send, the German Chancellor is under strong pressure to finally send the cruise missiles to attack the Russian rear. In recent days, through a video showing the infrastructure, the director of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kirilo Budanov, recommended that the civilian population not use the bridge. Destroying it, either to undermine Russian logistics on the southern front (although the land corridor between mainland Russia and Crimea remains intact despite Ukraine's attempt to break the front) or as a psychological blow remains one of the main objectives of those who have the task of attacking Russian territory in depth.

As cited by Sputnik , the intercepted conversation took place on February 19, two days after the fall of Avdeevka and when the offensive that seeks to put enough pressure on Scholz to obtain approval for the shipment of the Taurus missiles to Ukraine had already begun. Three days later, the Bundestag voted, at the initiative of the opposition, in favor of demanding that the Government send long-range missiles, although it did not mention the word “Taurus”. According to Russian media, participating in the conversation were “the head of the German Air Force Operations Department, Frank Graefe, the inspector general of the Air Force, Ingo Gerhartz and two officials from the Air Operations Center of the Space Command, Fenske and Frostedte,” officers of high enough rank to consider the conversation relevant.

“ As you have heard, Defense Minister Pistorius is going to examine the issue of supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine. We have a meeting scheduled with him. Everything needs to be discussed so we can start working on this issue. So far, I don't see any indication as to when these deliveries will begin. There has been nothing of the chancellor saying to him: "I want information now, and tomorrow morning we will make a decision." I haven't heard that. On the contrary, Pistorius analyzes the entire debate that has developed. “No one knows why the Federal Chancellor is blocking these deliveries ,” says Gerhartz according to the Sputnik transcript . In fact, even before this week's clarification that sending Taurus to Ukraine would also imply the presence of German soldiers, Scholz had already expressed reluctance about German weapons being used against targets in the Russian Federation. What's more, at one of the moments in which there was speculation about an imminent shipment, the German press stated that the missiles were being modified to prevent them from being used in Russian territory. Perhaps as a result of the Nord Stream issue, trust in the word of Ukraine, which has repeatedly stated that it would not use this material except on Ukrainian territory (according to the 1991 borders), does not exist.

Image

Gerhartz also insists on the need to offer solutions to the delivery method. “ We have to show what the missile can do, how it can be used. It must be taken into account, if we make a political decision to transfer missiles as aid to Ukraine, what consequences this could lead to. I would appreciate it if you could tell me not only what problems we have, but how we can solve them. For example, if we talk about the ways of supply… I know how the British do it. They are always transported in Ridgback armored vehicles. They have a few men on the ground. The French don't do it like that. Q7s delivered to Ukraine with Scalp missiles. The Storm Shadow and Scalp have similar specifications for installation. How are we going to solve this problem? Are we going to deliver MBDA missiles with Ridgback to your hands? Will one of ours be assigned to MBDA? Graefe, please let us know where we stand on this. Messrs. Fenske and Frostedte, please report how you see the situation .” It is evident that the objective is to anticipate the political decision of the shipment to accelerate the arrival of the material to the war as much as possible.

But even if Scholz's decision were to occur immediately, something that does not seem likely judging by the German Chancellor's position this week, the delivery times would be, according to Graefe, in the medium term. “ If the chancellor now makes the decision that we must supply missiles, these will be delivered from [the arsenals of] the Bundeswehr. Okay, but they will be ready for use only in about eight months. Second, we cannot shorten the time. Because if we do, there could be a misuse, the missile could land on a daycare, again there would be civilian casualties. These aspects must be taken into account. It is necessary to take note during negotiations that we cannot do anything without the manufacturer. They can equip, rearm and deliver the first missiles. We can increase the manufacturing rate a little, but we should not wait until we have about 20 units, we can deliver about five at a time. The delivery time of these missiles depends directly on the industry. Who will pay for it? Another question is: what weapons systems will these missiles be attached to? How should interaction between the company and Ukraine be maintained? Or is there some kind of integration already in place? ”He explains, giving important details of the manufacturing and delivery process and wondering about the cost and logistics.

“ If everything is prepared, the training will be more effective. And then we can return to the question of the number of missiles. If we give 50, they will run out very quickly ,” adds Frenske, making clear the intensive use of missiles that they expect Ukraine to make. However, none of the participants expect those 50 missiles to change the development of the war. “ Exactly, it will not change the course of hostilities. That's why we don't want to deliver them all. And not all at the same time. Maybe 50 in the first tranche, then there will probably be another tranche of 50 missiles ,” Gerhartz responds.

From there, the conversation focuses on the most practical: the use of missiles against a specific target, the Kerch bridge. “ It makes sense to join Ukraine to TTR [Tactics, Techniques and Procedures]. This will take a week. I think it is convenient to think about task planning and centralized planning. Task planning in our unit takes two weeks, but if there is interest in it, it can be done faster. If you look at the bridge, I think Taurus is not enough and we need to have an understanding of how it will work, and for that we need data from satellites. I don't know if we will be able to prepare Ukrainians for such a task in a short period of time, it is about a month. How would a Taurus attack on the bridge be carried out? From an operational perspective, I cannot estimate how quickly the Ukrainians will learn how to plan such an operation or how quickly integration will occur. But since we are referring to the bridge and the military bases, I understand that they want to take them over as soon as possible ,” says Frostedt, who begins speculation about what would be necessary to tear it down.

“ We have studied this issue intensively and, unfortunately, we have come to the conclusion that the bridge is like a landing strip due to its size. Therefore, not ten, not even twenty missiles may be needed, ” adds Fenske, to which Gerhartz replies that “ it is said that the Taurus will achieve it, if used with the French Dassault Rafale fighter ,” which Ukraine still does not have

“ We all know ,” adds Gerhartz to introduce the main theme, that of ensuring that Germany cannot be considered a participant in the war after a possible attack using Taurus missiles, “ that they want to destroy the bridge, which ultimately means, how it is monitored, not only because it is of military and strategic importance, but also political. Although now they also have a land corridor. There is some concern whether we have a direct link with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Therefore, the question will arise: can we use that trick and send our people to [manufacturing company] MBDA? So the direct link with Ukraine will be only through MBDA, it is much better than if that link existed with our Air Force .”

The intercepted conversation shows the interest of German officers in the delivery, in sufficient quantities, of Taurus missiles with which they are aware that they would attack points as important as the bridge that connects Crimea with continental Russia. There are four main challenges that the participants aspire to solve: production and delivery, training of specialists, logistics of deliveries and their use and, above all, ensuring that an attack on an objective as sensitive as the Kerch bridge does not be considered an act of war by Germany against Russia. And above all, the dialogue constantly hovers over the idea of ​​the political decision to send the missiles to Ukraine. A political decision that, despite pressure, Olaf Scholz refuses to make. For now.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/03/03/misil ... da-belica/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of March 2, 2024) | The main thing:

- Russian troops continued to occupy more advantageous positions in the Avdeevka direction;

- The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donetsk direction per day amounted to more than 390 military personnel, 2 tanks;

- Russian air defense in one day shot down five Storm Shadow cruise missiles, seven HIMARS missiles, and also destroyed 107 UAVs;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 160 military personnel and 5 armored vehicles, including Bradley, in the Avdiivka direction for a day;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 270 people and 16 pieces of equipment in the South Donetsk direction per day.

▫️In the South Donetsk direction , units of the Vostok group of troops inflicted fire on the formations of the 72nd mechanized , 58th motorized infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the 121st terrestrial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Novodonetskoye, Ugledar and Staromayorskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

Enemy losses amounted to up to 270 military personnel, two tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles, three armored combat vehicles, seven vehicles, a US-made Paladin self-propelled artillery mount and an Msta-B howitzer .

▫️In the Kherson direction, as a result of coordinated actions of units of the Dnepr group of forces, fire damage was caused to accumulations of manpower and equipment of the 118th mechanized brigade, the 35th marine brigade and the 126th terrestrial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Ivanovka, Kherson region and Rabotino, Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporozhye region.

The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to up to 60 military personnel, three vehicles and an ammunition depot .

▫️Operational-tactical aviation , unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit manpower and military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 112 regions.

▫️During the day, air defense systems shot down five Storm Shadow cruise missiles , as well as seven HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems .

In addition, 107 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed, including in the areas of the settlements of Yasinovataya, Pavlovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Zmievka, Troitskoe, Novokrasnyanka, Golikovo of the Lugansk People's Republic, Novoprokopivka, Kopani, Shevchenkovo, Sladkaya Balka of the Zaporozhye region, Kolodeznoe of the Kharkov region and Chernomorivka, Kherson region.

📊In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 575 aircraft, 267 helicopters, 13,969 unmanned aerial vehicles, 476 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,323 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,227 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 8,259 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 19,257 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

(Totals +-25%)

Google Translator

*******

The Polish-West Ukrainian Conflict Over East Galicia in 1918−1919
Posted on March 2, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. Europeans, and arguably even more so eastern Europeans, are acutely aware of their national and ethnic histories. This short Polish-Ukrainian conflict in east Galacia played a key role in souring relations between the people in the two areas.

By Dr. Vladislav B. Sotirovic, Ex-University Professor, Research Fellow at the Centre for Geostrategic Studies, Belgrade, Serbia (sotirovic1967@gmail.com)

Image
The Eastern Portion of Europe and the End of WWI

The end of WWI resulted in significant changes to the political boundaries of Central, East, and South-East Europe. Due to the extent of these changes and the newly born regional wars over the land distribution that erupted in several mini-regions in the eastern portion of Europe, it was to take around five to six years before new borders between the states were finally established and stabilized at least up to 1938.

The political transformation of the eastern portion of Europe after 1918 was a direct result of the collapsing both the German Second Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire during the last months of 1918, as well as the unsettled western borders of the ex-Russian Empire (collapsed in 1917) which still was involved into the revolution and civil war.

Most of the boundary changes in this half of Europe after WWI were direct result of decisions reached by the Entente powers (Allied and Associated Powers during WWI) at the Paris Peace Conference that began in early 1919 resulting in five peace treaties, named after the castles outside Paris where they have been finally signed. Each of these peace treaties was dealing in part, but in some cases entirely, with states in Central Europe. That was the case, for instance, with Poland which was in the post-WWI military-political conflict with the West Ukrainian nationalists over the land of East Galicia.

The state borders of post-WWI Poland were decided by the Paris Peace Conference by three means: 1) Through decisions of the Council of Ambassadors; 2) Plebiscites held under Entente direction; and 3) By the result of the war with West Ukraine and Bolshevik Russia.

For Poland, the final settlement of its eastern borders became the most complex. In fact, the first boundary problem became Galicia or more precisely East Galicia where Poles went to open war with Ukrainians.

On November 1st, 1918, when the rule of Austria-Hungary finally collapsed in the region, local Ukrainian nationalistic leaders proclaimed the independence of the West Ukrainian National (People’s) Republic. This new state claimed the whole of East Galicia (eastward from the San River with Lwów) to be Ukrainian followed by North Bukowina and Carpathian Rus’.

However, these territorial claims became immediately challenged by local Poles who fought all over Galicia to be united with the post-WWI Poland. Consequently, the result was a Polish-Ukrainian War that lasted from November 1918 until the summer of 1919, when the Galician-West Ukrainian military detachments were expelled from East Galicia which finally became a part of the interwar Poland.

East Galicia and Central Powers

The land of East Galicia was before WWI included in Austria-Hungary (Austrian part) having mixed ethnic composition (as a majority of the provinces of the Austrian-Hungarian Monarchy at the time). East Galician population before WWI was almost 5 million: a majority of it was “Ukrainians” (3,1 million), Poles (1,1 million), and Jews (620,000) followed by several other small ethnolinguistic communities. The Ukrainians (whatever this ethnic term meant at that time) had population domination in the countryside (villages), but the towns and cities were inhabited by the Polish and Jewish majorities.

It was in general tolerant policy by Vienna toward national minorities which resulted in Ukrainian, Polish, and Jewish political and national organizations existing side by side in peace.

Ukrainian national organizations had been struggling to defend their own ethnic-regional autonomy and to strengthen Ukrainian national identity among the local Slavic people. However, the reality on the ground was not so favorable for Ukrainian national propaganda. The intelligentsia which was accepting the Ukrainian ethnolinguistic identity, so it had been quickly progressing with them. But on other hand, an overwhelming number of the peasantry (majority of the population of East Galicia) was not receptive to Ukrainian national identity’s propaganda.

Another factor was that both ethnic Poles and Jews had clear domination over the areas of education, culture, regional economy, and civil administration. The Poles regarded the city of Lwów/Lvov/Lemberg/L’viv (which was the crucially important settlement in East Galicia) as one of the most important cities of Polish culture and nation following Cracow, Warsaw, and Wilno/Vilnius.

During WWI (1914−1918), the Central Powers but especially Germany stubbornly supported Ukrainian national identity, nationalism, and national goals – all of them directed against Russia and Russian national interests.

On February 9th, 1918 in Brest-Litovsk it was signed the peace treaty between one hand the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, and the Ottoman Empire) and the Ukrainian People’s Republic (the UPR) – Brotfrieden in German (“Bread Peace”). The peace treaty ended the war in East Galicia and recognized the sovereignty of the UPR.

One of the most important points of this peace treaty was that the victorious Central Powers promised Ukraine some territories which included the Kholm region (populated by the Polish-speaking majority) as well as. It was also a secret initiative to transform both provinces of Bukovina and East Galicia into a crownland of Austria-Hungary (Austrian part). But the plan became soon extremely problematic . The Poles opposed it insisting on the indivisibility of the whole of Galicia in which they would have a dominance. In other words, for the Poles, the pro-Ukrainian policy of the Central Powers during WWI and especially in 1918 was not only anti-Russian but even more anti-Polish. Therefore, due to the policy of Berlin regarding the Ukrainian Question in 1918 the interethnic conflict between Poles and Ukrainians became, in fact, unavoidable.

The Conflict

In the autumn of 1918 during the collapse of the Danube Monarchy (Austria-Hungary), national workers of several ethnic groups within the monarchy had been preparing plans for the creation or re-establishment of their own (united) national states after the war. That was the case as well as with the Polish politicians in Galicia who wanted to include the whole region of Galicia (Western and Eastern) into the united national state of the Polish people. However, the Ukrainian political workers from West Galicia opposed such a Polish idea and on the night of November 1st, 1918 organized a coup. As a result, helped by Ukrainian national units, they succeeded in occupying Lvov and other cities in East Galicia. At the same time, they proclaimed the West Ukrainian People’s Republic as an independent Ukrainian state. The Poles of Lvov (being a majority of the city) were taken by surprise but organized a military defense (including schoolchildren) and soon expelled Ukrainian forces from the biggest part of the city. Nevertheless, in other cities of East Galicia, the Ukrainians had the greatest success, except in the city of Przemyśl/Peremyshl. Polish troops made advances in other cities in the western portions of East Galicia but on the other hand, Poland failed in several attempts to resolve this Polish-Ukrainian conflict by arbitration. In other words, before Poland proclaimed its own independence on November 11th, 1918, the war between Polish and Ukrainian forces already was going on over East Galicia and its most important city – Lvov.

The Polish armed forces expelled the Ukrainian military from Lvov on November 22nd, 1918. However, Lvov was under siege including constant firing by the Ukrainian military until April 1919 (five months). Nonetheless, immediately after the Ukrainian forces were drone away from Lvov, it happened the pogroms against the Jews in which up to 80 people died. The issue was that the local Pols accused the Jews of supporting the Ukrainian side regarding the destiny of Lvov. Especially, the Jewish paramilitary units being armed by the Ukrainian side have been accused by the Poles of anti-Polish policy in the city.

During the war between the Polish and Ukrainian forces over East Galicia in 1918−1919, the Polish side was gradually winning over the enemy. For the Ukrainian side in the conflict, the crucial problem was that the West Ukrainian political-military leaders did not succeed in mobilizing the biggest part of the Ukrainian peasantry for their course as the peasants have been much more involved in their economic than the political interests of existence. Another problem/question is how much they have felt themselves as “Ukrainians” at all in order to fight against the Poles. In such a political situation, in order to attract the peasants for the Ukrainian course, the Ukrainian nationalists tried to make use of some social-economic slogans and, therefore, promised the peasantry an agricultural reform after the war –distribution of land (the same have been propagating the Russian Bolsheviks at the same time). Nevertheless, the Ukrainian nationalists used all means of force for the reason to mobilize the peasants of West Ukraine for the Ukrainian military to fight Poles in East Galicia.

The Mediation by Entente

After the Great War, in 1919 the Entente powers attempted to mediate in this Polish-Ukrainian war with the final purpose to bring the war to an end as quickly as possible taking into account the post-war peace conference in Paris and around castles. In fact, what they preferred was a priority of the fight against Russian Bolshevism and, therefore, the Polish-Ukrainian War was simply weakening the European forces against the potentially aggressive policy of the Bolsheviks who at that time supported all kinds of the left revolutions in Central Europe. In other words, this war occurring on the borders with the Bolshevik Russia was preventing the creation of a united anti-Bolshevik Polish-Ukrainian front which could block eventual aggression of Europe by Lenin’s Red Army. The first practical move by the Entente forces concerning the making of peace between Ukrainian and Polish military forces occurred in February 1919 when a special French-led military commission negotiated both a truce and a demarcation line between Poland and Ukraine. According to this proposal, the city of Lvov and the oil region to the south around Boryslav had to go to Poland. In other words, some 2/3 of East Galicia would be included in West Ukraine.

The Entente’s commission also decided that the West Ukrainian People’s Republic was a failed state – not a viable one. The real reason for such a conclusion was the fact that the East Galician movement of independence was based only on an extremely tiny stratum of intelligentsia without massive support by the people especially in the countryside. The Ukrainian nationalists and politicians in order to attract the local peasants of East Galizia promised them alongside the agrarian reform as well as houses and castles of Lvov. However, it happened that the West Ukrainian national fighters lost control over the peasant movement they had themselves inspired.

As a matter of fact, the Polish leaders involved in the conflict accepted (half-heartedly) the set of peace-meal conditions required by the Entente commission. However, the same conditions Ukrainian leaders rejected and, automatically, ended the previously agreed Polish-Ukrainian truce. As a consequence, the Ukrainian armed forces on March 10th, 1919 started a new offensive to occupy the city of Lvov which soon collapsed just after the following ten days. In essence, that became a real turning point in the 1918−1919 Polish-Ukrainian War over East Galicia and the making of a final border between newly re-established Poland and newly to-be-formed Ukraine. Nevertheless, from mid-March 1919, that was Poles who took the military and political initiatives over the Ukrainians. Basically, it became obvious that the Ukrainian side would lose the war against Poland concerning East Galicia and the city of Lvov. During the night between April 14/15th, 1919, the Poles launched a fruitful attack resulting in Lvov not anymore at the distance of firing the city by Ukrainian artillery fire. The Polish offensive was so successful that in May 1919 Poles took several other East Galician cities (Stanislawów in Polish or Ivano-Frankivsk in Ukrainian) – that was at that time the headquarters of the Ukrainian political and military authorities.

At the very beginning of June 1919, West Ukrainian military detachments were in control of only several areas of East Ukraine. What happened, was pressure by the Entente commission on the Polish side to stop further offensive, and the bilateral truce negotiations between Poland and Ukraine were renewed. Nevertheless, West Ukrainian leaders did not respect the truce agreement and suddenly started an offensive on June 7th, 1919 with the result of recapturing some areas of East Galicia from the Polish side. Therefore, Poles blamed Ukrainians for the prolongation of the military conflict in and over East Galicia to such an extent that Entente states were compelled to send a commission to the city of Lvov for the sake to do investigation regarding serious complaints about crimes against the civil population in the city committed, in fact, by both sides. The commission finally did not find relevant evidence of Polish war crimes but, oppositely, a lot of cases of war crimes were done by the Ukrainian side. What is of probably crucial importance to emphasize here is the fact that the commission found a very enthusiastic reception of the Polish troops by the city dwellers as liberators against the terror of the “Ukrainian bands”.

The commission composed of the representatives of the Entente powers in order to finally solve the problem of East Galicia proposed that the whole territory of this region be occupied by the Polish troops and, in fact, consequently, included in the post-WWI Polish national state. For that reason, the Council of Foreign Ministers in Paris on June 25th, 1919 gave open permission to the Polish government in Warsaw to launch a new military offensive in East Galicia for the final purpose of expelling all West Ukrainian military detachments from the region and occupy the same completely. It was agreed that the Haller Army (armed in France) to be sent to Poland and deployed in the struggle against the communist units. For Eastern Galicia, autonomy had to be given within Poland, and the final decision on the status of East Galicia would be decided by referendum (but organized by the Polish authorities).

Finally, the Polish army led by Piłsudski himself, on July 2nd, 1919 started its decisive military attack against West Ukrainian military troops and succeeded in expelling them from the complete territory of East Galicia. Up to July 18th, 1919, the forces of West Ukraine composed of some 20,000 soldiers crossed the Zbruch River and entered the territory of the Ukrainian People’s Republic. Therefore, the destiny of East Galicia was decided in favor of Poland up to WWII.

Final remarks

The war between Poland and West Ukraine was going on from November 1918 to July 1919. According to different scholars, the war took around 25.000 lives of the soldiers from both sides: around 10.000 Polish and 15.000 Ukrainian. However, due to the lack of sources, we can very hardly estimate the number of losses among the civilian population. Nevertheless, it was less than the overall number of soldiers lost combined from both sides. Another feature of this war was the fact that atrocities committed against both the civilian population and prisoners of war have been not on a large scale compared with some other cases during WWI, for instance, Serbia which lost around 25% of its population.

This war between the Polish and Ukrainian sides, nevertheless, poisoned Polish-Ukrainian relations for decades and became clear during WWII when Ukrainians committed a large-scale genocide on the Poles (and Jews) in Galicia.

The Polish-Ukrainian dispute was over the land:

1.For the Polish side, the problems concerning the belongings of East Galicia did not end with the military defeat of West Ukrainian armed forces in July 1919. However, the problem continues to be as such for the next two decades playing the focal influence in both inner and foreign affairs of Warsaw.
2.For the Ukrainian side, the problem was solved by J. V. Stalin at the end of WWII as according to his decision, East Galicia became annexed by Soviet Ukraine. The local Poles have been forced to live outside their motherland – Poland up to the present day while Ukrainians succeeded in creating within the USSR a Greater Ukraine by the annexation of the land from all neighbors.
3.The Entente powers, nevertheless, being concerned with the direct threat of the export of the Bolshevik revolution from Russia to Europe, granted East Galicia (temporarily) to Poland having in mind to create at such a way a stronger defense corridor against Bolshevik Russia. However, the Treaty of Saint Germain signed in September 1919 gave only West Galicia (westward from the San River to Poland), leaving, therefore, the final resolution of the belonging of East Galicia as a problematic issue to be solved in the future.
4.In December 1919, the British statesman Lord Curzon proposed two possible boundary lines throughout Galicia: 1) One of which would serve as the southern extension of what he proposed should be the eastern borders of Poland. That was officially accepted to be named as Curzon Line. The 2) variant, which was further east and included Lwów, would serve as Poland’s border. In reality, no one of these proposed solutions was accepted by Warsaw, whose annexation of all of East Galicia was, in March 1923, recognized by the Entente Council of Ambassadors.
< © Vladislav B. Sotirovic 2024

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/03 ... 21919.html

*******

Let's Make It Clear.

Yes, Germans (not all) hate Russian guts and whatever is left of Bundeswehr is dreaming about "giving it to them, damn Russische swine".


The full text of what is claimed to be a discussion by senior German military officers on how to attack the Crimean Bridge in Russia was published by RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan on Friday. She reported that Russian security officials had leaked the recording hours earlier and has pledged to release the original audio shortly. Simonyan identified the officers as General Ingo Gerhartz, the German Air Force commander, and senior leaders responsible for mission planning. The alleged conversation took place on February 19, according to the source of the leak. The transcript reveals the officials discussed the efficiency of the Franco-British cruise missile called Storm Shadow by the UK and SCALP by France. Both nations donated some of their stockpile to Ukraine.

But what RT reported is pretty standard military mambo-jumbo which everybody discusses. I am 146% positive Russian military professionals discuss how to sink a carrier or two or how to drop a number of critical infrastructure objects in EU and USA. What is peculiar, however, is the intensity of insanity which struck all those NATO military "professionals", who are facing a disintegration of Ukie front and all 12 Stormshadows which have been launched at the bridge today have been shot down. I guess, Russians may consider blowing the shit out of some UK or French infrastructure. France now wants to officially send its "special forces" to 404. Russia may officially sink some of French frigates, I guess, and kill those "special forces", of course. Not that Russia will do it for the first time. All signs from the West of being cornered, hence hysterical statements.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/03 ... clear.html

******

Transnistria Could Become The Tripwire For A Wider War

Image

ANDREW KORYBKO
MAR 2, 2024

It’s already known after German Chancellor Scholz’s tacit admission last week that the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine has morphed into an undeclared but limited hot one, but this tenuous state of affairs could easily collapse into an uncontrollable conflict if Transnistria falls.

There was some speculation last week that Moldova’s unrecognized breakaway region of Transnistria might become the tripwire for a wider war after its parliament requested Russian assistance for alleviating the economic blockade that Chisinau and Kiev have imposed on it. Tiraspol also requested Moscow’s diplomatic efforts to revive stalled talks on its status, all of which the Kremlin promised to consider due to the fact that around half of the region’s 450,000 residents are Russian citizens.

It was almost exactly a year ago in late February 2023 that Russia’s top brass warned that Ukraine was plotting a false flag provocation in Transnistria that would be carried out by Azov militants in Russian uniforms. It was analyzed here at the time, but nothing ultimately happened, most likely because the West was hyper-focused on preparing for the ultimately failed counteroffensive that summer. Half a year after that disaster became undeniable, however, Transnistria is now back in the news.

The West would prefer to force that region’s political capitulation through economic means in order to score a cost-free victory for boosting morale as Ukraine struggles to hold back Russia’s gains in the aftermath of its victory in Avdeevka late last month. This explains the blockade, anti-government information warfare, and speculative infiltration of sleeper cell agents into that region, which have increasingly become unbearable for the local authorities and hence why they requested Russian support.

If the situation deteriorates, whether as a result of the aforementioned pressure or due to a provocation along the lines of the one that Russia warned about last year, then this separatist region could become the tripwire for a wider war. It’s already known after German Chancellor Scholz’s tacit admission last week that the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine has morphed into an undeclared but limited hot one, but this tenuous state of affairs could easily collapse into an uncontrollable conflict if Transnistria falls.

Russia has over 1,000 peacekeepers there per a prior 1990s-era agreement with Moldova, which nowadays wants them to leave, plus approximately 200,000 citizens in that region. The first could easily be overpowered by a joint Romanian-backed Moldovan and Ukrainian pincer offensive, thus leaving the second’s safety at the mercy of those two. Russia couldn’t sit idly as that happens, yet it also can’t conventionally intervene to avert that scenario since it lacks a “land bridge” to Transnistria.

President Putin might therefore feel compelled to “escalate to de-escalate” by ordering an all-out missile salvo against the attacking Romanian-backed Moldovan and Ukrainian forces and/or possibly using tactical nukes per what was recently reported about his country’s supposedly low threshold. It also can’t be ruled out that support infrastructure inside of Romania could be hit with conventional munitions for this purpose despite risking the activation of Article 5 if he calculates that the bloc would back down.

Starting World War III over Transnistria sounds absurd, which is why neither Russia nor NATO would likely risk it, but each might try to inflict major reputational damage on the other in the event that the West moves first by authorizing Romanian-backed Moldova and/or Ukraine to capture that region. NATO might consider this “low-hanging fruit” that could boost Western morale at this difficult moment while Russia could test Article 5 as explained above if it doesn’t expect direct and overwhelming retaliation.

In the event that this scenario remains manageable, which can’t be taken for granted, Russia would lose Transnistria along with its over 1,000 troops and at least one-fifth of a million citizens (who probably wouldn’t be slaughtered but suffer under occupation) while Article 5 would be discredited. It’s in both sides’ interests to avert this mutually detrimental outcome, but that can only happen by deterring it through the resumption of peace talks or more riskily by Russia “escalating to de-escalate” if forced to.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/transnis ... e-tripwire

All I can say is Odessa asap. And let the fool Moldavians rot.

*******

Ukraine SitRep: Retreat Continues For Lack Of Defense Lines

On February 17, after Ukrainian units in Avdeevka had started to leave their position, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Syrski, announced a retreat to new defense lines:

"Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of the military, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines," Syrskyi said.
He emphasized that Ukrainian soldiers had fulfilled their duty with dignity, did their best to destroy the best Russian military units and inflicted significant losses in manpower and equipment on the enemy.

"The lives of servicemen are the highest value. We will take back Avdiivka anyway," the Chief added.

As some had already predicted it turned out that the "more favorable lines" Syrski promoted did not exist.

On February 17, the same day Syrski announced the retreat, Strana already reported on the lack of new defense lines (machine translation):

Ukrainian photographers Konstantin and Vlada Liberov, who document the war, wonder around which Ukrainian city, next after Avdiivka, the Russians will try to push through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
They report this in their Instagram.

"So what is the next "fortetsia" - Pokrovsk? Or just Konstantinovka?", - write Liberov, criticizing the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine because of the lack of a second line of defense in Avdiivka.

"Where is the second line of defense? If you use the Deepstate map, "claws" around the city began to form almost a year ago. It certainly wasn't a surprise. So where's the second line of defense?" The Liberovs ask themselves.

"While the military was waiting for weapons for the Zaporozhye counteroffensive, the enemy passed through the fields, concreted trenches, built entire underground cities… Why didn't we do the same in Avdiivka? Moreover, a blind defense, the purpose of which is to deplete the enemy's forces, is like our official strategy.


Others confirmed the observation (machine translation):

West of Avdiivka, no significant defense line has been built for Ukrainian troops, and the Russian army continues to advance.
This was announced by the editor-in-chief of Censor, Yuri Butusov, following his trip to this area.

"There are no words. Gap: here in Kiev, the supreme commander-in-chief says one thing, but at the front something completely different is happening. I want to say that no field lines of fortifications have been built beyond Avdiivka so far. I saw Russian drones attacking our soldiers in their burrows in the middle of a field, " Butusov said.

According to him, no conclusions are drawn from previous failures.

"If the government can't find builders to build at least basic rear lines of defense, if they can't find engineers to maintain modern equipment, drones, sensors, communications, if they can't find workers and technologists to produce ammunition, then there will never be enough attack aircraft," the journalist added.


The government claimed to have allocated money to local authorities for building defense lines. But such money always seem to drain away before the first fortification gets finished.

A lack of serious organization and incompetence add to the picture (machine translation):

In the absence of fortified trenches in the east of the country, the engineering services of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are to blame.
This was stated in the social network X military engineer with the nickname Corsair.

As stated in a series of his posts, the heads of engineering services of brigades "do not know how to plan ahead and do not submit requests on time."

"When I arrive at a place, I have neither a map nor a proper justification. As a rule, they say: "We need to dig from that stump to planting." But that's not how it works. The defense should be solid, " Korsar wrote.

According to him, engineers do not have wood and concrete either, because "the brigades do not have the willpower to insist on this, and the AHS (operational-tactical group - Ed. ) do not have money."

For construction equipment, you need to sign contracts with businesses, but no one does this.


Since the loss of Avdeevka the Ukrainian forces had to fall back again and again. There are no natural barriers that could be used for defenses and there is no equipment and material to build defense lines across bare land.

Today even the New York Times took note of this:

Surprisingly Weak Ukrainian Defenses Help Russian Advance (archived) - New York Times, Mar 2 2024

Russian forces continue to make small but rapid gains outside of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, attributable in part to dwindling Ukrainian ammunition and declining Western aid.
But there’s another reason the Kremlin’s troops are advancing in the area: poor Ukrainian defenses.

Sparse, rudimentary trench lines populate the area west of Avdiivka that Ukraine is trying to defend, according to a Times review of imagery by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite company. These trench lines lack many of the additional fortifications that could help slow Russian tanks and help defend major roads and important terrain.

Avdiivka became the site of a fierce standoff over the last nine months, emerging as one of the bloodiest battles of the war. When Russia captured the city on Feb. 17, its first major gain since last May, the Ukrainian Army claimed it had secured defensive lines outside the city.

But Russian troops have captured three villages to the west of Avdiivka in the span of a week, and they are contesting at least one other.


Avdeevka Feb 17 2024

Image

Avdeevka Mar 2 2024

Image

The Ukraine friendly Live UA map from where the above maps were copied is not fully up to date. The town Orlivka, still shown as Ukrainian, is already in Russian hands.

The next geographic feature that might be useful for defense is the north-to-south river and reservoir line 12 kilometer west of Orlivka. Nothing in between was prepared for a serious defense. It can not be held against any serious attacker:

Ukrainian commanders have had ample time to prepare defenses outside Avdiivka. The area has been under attack since 2014, and Ukraine has had a tenuous hold on it since Russia launched its full-scale invasion two years ago.
But the Ukrainian defenses outside Avdiivka show rudimentary earthen fortifications, often with a connecting trench for infantry troops to reach firing positions closest to the enemy, but little else.


But instead acknowledging that and instead of retreating to that river line the Ukrainian command is again throwing reserves into the already crumbling defenses.

Mr. Hrabskyi said Russia was currently preventing Ukrainian troops from shoring up their defenses by relentlessly bombarding them, including with powerful glide bombs carrying hundreds of tons of explosives that can smash through even well-prepared fortifications.

“The quality of these defensive lines cannot be good enough to resist massive bulldozer tactics by the Russian forces,” Mr. Hrabskyi said.


The current political uproar in Europe and the U.S. about the war in Ukraine is an acknowledgment of the fact that Russia is certain to win this fight. I do not expect any serious consequences coming from it.

It will simply take a few more weeks of discussions until resignation sets in.

Posted by b on March 2, 2024 at 16:40 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/03/u ... .html#more

******

Awarding Sergei Parshikov
March 2, 20:48

Image

Sergei Parshikov, widely known under the call sign "Lynya", was awarded by Shoigu's order the medal of a participant in the Northern Military District.
We met Seryoga back in 2014, when he was transporting cargo to the Slavyansko-Kramatorsk agglomeration, including across the border near Izvarino, which had not yet been liberated. He did a lot in 2014. Many unique videos that were published on the blog in 2014 fell into my raking hands with his direct participation.

In 2015, “Lynya” received a serious leg wound in Shirokino (VOG flew under his feet), readers then helped raise money for his treatment. With the start of the Northern Military District, we are back on humanitarian work - supplying drones, electronic warfare systems, vehicles, open training classes for UAV operators, organizing the printing of military components on 3D printers and much more.

Congratulations on your well-deserved award.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9001616.html

Avdiivka will be restored
March 2, 19:08

Image

For those interested in the question - whether Avdiivka will be restored or not.
Today, Deputy Prime Minister Khusnullin visited there (while the city is still being shelled by artillery and drones) and after inspecting the current state of the city, he said that Avdeevka will be restored after the front is moved further to the west.

(Video at link.)

In principle, building 2-3 blocks of new high-rise buildings is not a very big problem, if you look at the experience of Mariupol.
The main problem will most likely be the restoration of communications and the industrial zone + mine clearance there will take many months.
Despite the severity of the fighting, Avdeevka was not destroyed as badly as Popasnaya, the restoration of which is in question.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9001392.html

Google Translator

******

The West’s Latest Copium Is That Russia’s Gains Increase The Danger To Its Own Troops

Image

ANDREW KORYBKO
MAR 3, 2024

The targeted Western audience is made to believe that it might be a blessing in disguise that Russia is once again on the offensive after the spectacular failure of Kiev’s counteroffensive last summer since this supposedly imbues the West with a renewed sense of urgency to ensure that Ukraine won’t lose.

Russia’s victory in Avdeevka proved that Ukraine is back on the defensive and that the worst-case scenario from the West’s perspective of Kiev’s total defeat can no longer be ruled out. This provoked such panic among their leaders that they reportedly discussed conventionally intervening in their proxy’s support last week even though many have since denied their French counterpart’s revelation about this. In order to manage the public’s perceptions, however, they just released a new batch of “copium”.

This internet neologism refers to a false narrative concocted by one’s side in order to artificially inflate their supporters’ hopes in the face of inconvenient facts. It combines coping with opium to suggest that such information warfare products are highly addictive because they play to the target audience’s wishful thinking expectations. Most copium relies on some variation of the “5D chess master plan” conspiracy theory to imply that even undeniable setbacks are part of a master plan for victory.

CNBC’s article from Friday about how “Ukraine’s losses on the battlefield could make the war more dangerous for Russia” is a perfect example of this. Holly Ellyatt claims that “Russia’s advantage on the battlefield could prompt Ukraine’s backers to give it more of what it wants, and needs, to win the war” per what can be described as the “escalation paradox” that Macron’s remarks supposedly exemplify. While there’s some logic to that notion, it’s clearly being exploited for copium purposes in this case.

The targeted Western audience is made to believe that it might be a blessing in disguise that Russia is once again on the offensive after the spectacular failure of Kiev’s counteroffensive last summer since this supposedly imbues the West with a renewed sense of urgency to ensure that Ukraine won’t lose. What’s omitted from Ellyatt’s article is that any conventional intervention in their proxy’s support would spike the risk of World War III by miscalculation and that this is only being considered due to desperation.

Russia won the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with NATO by far, which is why the latter is now pondering whether to draw a red line in the sand to salvage their geopolitical project should the former break through the Line of Contact in the coming future, something they previously ruled out. This goes to show just how poorly the proxy war is going for the West since they used to talk about Russia using nuclear weapons out of desperation and not themselves intervening in Ukraine for the same reason.

The only way to keep morale high among Ukraine’s supporters in these circumstances is to imagine that more Russians will soon be killed since the West might now finally give Ukraine “more of what it wants, and needs, to win the war”. Once again, some countries like Germany might indeed step up their involvement in this conflict in light of the latest developments (irrespective of whether this is done unilaterally by their armed forces or approved by their government), but that won’t lead to Kiev winning.

Moreover, the prior standard applied by the Mainstream Media was that Russia’s reported purchase of Iranian and North Korean drones and shells respectively was done out of desperation to prevent its defeat, yet now the faint hope of the West doing something similar with Ukraine is spun as a victory. To be sure, those prior reports would have certainly signaled that Russia was experiencing serious difficulties if they’re found to be true, but the point is that double standards are cynically being applied.

Looking forward, more such copium of the sort that was just peddled by CNBC is expected to circulate across legacy and social media as Ukraine’s losses continue piling up and Russia gradually expands its gains on the ground. What’s so dishonest about this narrative though is that it doesn’t inform the public of just how dangerous this hoped-for NATO mission creep is, unlike speculation about Russia using nukes out of desperation, which irresponsibly downplays the risks of World War III by miscalculation.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-west ... at-russias
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10769
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:00 pm

Trenches of the Donbass front
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 03/04/2024

Image

Since the capture of Avdeevka exactly two weeks ago, Ukraine and its partners have been looking for ways to exploit a defeat that has special importance for kyiv to their advantage. The battle, which has caused enormous devastation in the city and a high number of casualties in the two armies in conflict, has been turned into an argument to demand that the supplier countries speed up the delivery of material. In the weeks before the capture, when the city's front was faltering and the new commander-in-chief opted to send a brigade he trusted, the one formed by the Azov soldiers of Andriy Biletsky and Maksym Zhoryn, those reserves did not seek , as the name of the brigade, Third Assault, indicated, attack, but simply cover the retreat. In the hours after the definitive Russian victory in the city, media such as The New York Times alleged that Ukraine could have lost up to a thousand soldiers abandoned in the city or captured by Russian troops, a high figure, but one that has not been repeated the scenes of huge prisoner captures that occurred in Mariupol. The development of the battle, with Ukrainian troops stopping the Russian advance first in Lastochkino, a small town on the outskirts of Avdeevka, and later in the Berdichi-Orlovka-Tonenkoe axis indicates a relatively orderly withdrawal in search of slowing down the local Russian offensive .

The objective is, without a doubt, to gain time to reinforce this second line of defense that also has geographical barriers that, in the past, have been a practically insurmountable obstacle for the forces of the Russian Federation, which have suffered enormous casualties in their attempts to cross some of the rivers or reserves of the Donbass region. Despite hopes by think-tanks like the Institute for the Study of War that battle fatigue would temporarily halt the fighting, the Russian attempt to advance on Ukraine's second line of defense has continued. The importance of the capture of Avdeevka is precisely to have broken the first line of Ukrainian defense in the most fortified part of the longest prepared front. This is thus a strategic loss for kyiv, which needs to buy time to reinforce its second line. To achieve this, it has, among others, the most ideologically prepared troops that are most fanatically willing to fight against Russia.

“In the southern Donetsk direction, the successful offensive of our troops continues to develop along the Avdeevka-Pervomaiskoe-Krasnogorovka-Marinka-Konstantinovka axis (with Novomikhailovka as the outer point). These are localities (five temporary fortresses) on which all Ukrainian defenses in the Donetsk area depend, a fiefdom that has suffocated the capital of the Russian Spring for many years,” Marat Jairulin, one of the correspondents, wrote this week. military that is more clearly recounting the progress and difficulties of the Russian troops in their attempt to finally distance the Ukrainian forces from the city of Donetsk.

The map shows the defense structure of Ukraine on this line, with the clear river barrier linking the Ocheretino-Novosevlovka-Karlovka line. To reach it and try to break down that barrier on the way to that outer axis, theoretically more fortified, since, there, a break could bring down the entire 60-kilometer front around Donetsk, Russia is now fighting in Orlovka, Berdichi, Tonenkoe and Pervomaiskoe.

“Avdevka became the scene of fierce duel over the last nine months, becoming one of the bloodiest battles of the war. When Russia captured the city on February 17, its main advance since last May, the Ukrainian Army claimed to have secured the defense lines on the outskirts of the city,” The New York Times wrote yesterday in an uncharacteristic article that highlights doubts the Ukrainian approaches and even their assessment of the situation. The reality of these two weeks, in which Russia has managed to capture several towns and continues to fight for cities of greater importance, contradicts the Ukrainian discourse, which tried to downplay the loss of Avdeevka. Ukrainian authorities had to turn to the Donbass war, which saw the first battle between the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the newly formed DPR militias in 2014, to claim that it took Russia ten years to capture the town. The comment, which eliminates at a stroke the difference between the popular armies that fought on the Donbass front in July 2014 and the Russian army that, with significant weight of its aviation, has now advanced on Avdeevka, simply sought to convince its audience that everything is going according to plan .

But that is questionable even if the plan was an organized withdrawal to the second line of defense, at which point the Russian offensive potential in this sector of the Donbass front can be truly assessed. “But Russian troops have captured three towns west of Avdeeka in less than a week and dispute at least another,” laments The New York Times , which seeks the reasons for the Ukrainian difficulties on a front that was considered prepared. “Scattered, rudimentary lines of trenches populate the area west of Avdeevka that Ukraine is trying to defend, according to a review of images by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite company. These trench lines lack many of the additional fortifications that could help stop Russian tanks and defend main roads and important terrain,” the media is surprised, placing this deficient defense network precisely in the places where this week The battle has occurred and they have been reinforced by a brigade made up of men willing to die killing Russian soldiers to prevent their advance.

“British military intelligence stated on Thursday that Russian forces had advanced to within about six kilometers of the center of Avdeevka in the past two weeks, a limited but unusually rapid advance compared to previous offensive operations,” the article explains, clarifying that “ Ukrainian commanders have had plenty of time to prepare defenses around Avdeevka. “The area has been under attack since 2014 and Ukraine has had tenuous control over it since Russia launched its full-scale invasion two years ago.” As usual, the media forgets that, if Avdeevka has been under attack since 2014, so have Yasinovaya, Spartak or Donetsk on the other side of the front. Also curious is the definition of tenuous control of Avdeevka, one of the main fiefdoms of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In any case, the media goes on the attack and in an uncharacteristic display of criticism of Ukraine, adds that “the Ukrainian defenses on the outskirts of Avdeevka show rudimentary earth fortifications, often with a connecting trench for infantry troops to "They reach the firing positions closest to the enemy, but little else." As if that were not enough, and also using satellite images obtained through commercial companies, The New York Times makes a comparison with the Russian trenches of the Surovikin line in the Zaporozhie fields that cast an unfavorable image of the defense work of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the command of Valery Zaluzhny. “The absence of solid Ukrainian entrenchments in the area is especially glaring when compared to the formidable Russian defenses that thwarted Kiev's advances last summer during the ultimately failed Ukrainian counteroffensive,” the article laments, citing as an example the trenches on the outskirts of Verbovo,

“Unlike the poorly fortified villages that Russian forces are trying to capture outside Avdiivka, Verbove has a concentric ring of fortifications. It begins with a trench wide enough to trap advancing tanks and armored vehicles, followed by a mesh of concrete obstacles known as dragon's teeth - which are also used to stop vehicles - and finally, an expanding trench. for the infantry.” Suddenly, the line of defense that Russian journalists already defined as serious in the fall of 2022 when they started the work has become an example that Ukraine should have followed. What's more, the dragon teeth that Ukraine and its followers made fun of have already begun to appear in some areas of the Ukrainian defense.

The New York Times also considers the reasons for Ukrainian neglect in relation to defense constructions. Among the possible causes, the emphasis on offensive operations stands out, which have left no room or budget allocation for the possibility that the counteroffensive would not bear fruit and the initiative of the war would once again return to the Russian troops. “Who considered it an option – which is a very expensive option – to build defensive lines? Nobody,” says Serhiy Hrabskiy, a retired Ukrainian colonel, as quoted by The New York Times . Russia, which had no choice but to understand that its survival in the war depended on the construction of a reliable defense that would prevent the Ukrainian invasion of Crimea, began preparation work in the fall of 2022 and never hid the objective. Already then, there was beginning to be talk about the future Ukrainian counteroffensive, the one that, according to the Ukrainian authorities, failed due to Western delays in the delivery of weapons, but also, as they now allege, due to the leaks that made Moscow have the plans in its hands. Ukrainians. In reality, the counteroffensive, which could only come from the part in which neither the excessive urbanization of Donbass or the Dnieper is a factor, was practically broadcast by Ukraine, which boasted of its successes before even having the weapons in its hands. with which he intended to break the Zaporozhie front.

In addition to the economic issue, The New York Times appeals to the “psychological element” observed by United States officials. “If Ukrainian troops extensively mined certain areas to prevent Russian advances, it would be a tacit recognition that military operations in that area will be unlikely in the future,” he says. During the eight years of war in Donbass and the two that followed, Ukraine has undoubtedly aspired to militarily break into Donetsk. However, that is likely not the only or main reason for the lack of preparation of the western outskirts of Avdeevka, a town that Ukraine simply did not expect to lose. Absent from the article is one of the clearest reasons why Kiev has opted for the offensive and has left the defense neglected: unlike Russia, which understood the seriousness of the situation in 2022, since the fall of Kherson and the Russian defeat In Kharkiv, Ukrainian political and military authorities have underestimated both the offensive and defensive capabilities of Russian troops.

Finally, The New York Times recalls Zelensky's order to begin the construction of trenches and defensive positions last December, months after the failure of the counteroffensive was evident. But more worrying for Ukrainian and Western interests is the assessment of the work that has been done since then and in which the Donetsk region should have a priority place. “Nothing significant has happened,” the media complains, describing the economic and logistical problems that Ukraine is suffering in this work. Among them, the lack of engineering units, lack of personnel and also material shortages stand out.

“The absence of strong defensive lines on the outskirts of Avdiivka has been denounced in recent days by several Ukrainian journalists, in a rare display of public criticism of the military,” adds The New York Times , which insists that “the delays in “The construction of fortifications means that Ukrainian troops may now be forced to reinforce their defensive lines while under fire from the Russian army, making the task exponentially more difficult.” Hence, the presence of units such as the Third Assault Brigade seeks to delay Russian advances in the area immediately west of Avdeevka, where the rudimentary fortifications will not withstand many assaults, to gain time in the tasks of reinforcing the second and third lines. . It will be then, at the moment in which the battle reaches those positions possibly better fortified than areas like Orlovka, for which Ukraine hoped not to have to fight, when it will be possible to assess whether the Russian troops have the capacity for broader offensive actions or If it is only a matter of the continuation of the dynamics of the war, with small progressive advances at the cost of tough battles for each location.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/03/04/trinc ... e-donbass/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of March 3, 2024) The main thing:

the Russian Armed Forces in the Donetsk direction occupied more advantageous positions, repulsed 3 attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

- The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction per day amounted to over 250 military personnel

- the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost two armored personnel carriers , three vehicles and a US-made M777 artillery system and up to 240 military personnel in the Donetsk direction during the day;

— The Russian Armed Forces repelled 5 attacks by the Ukrainian military in the Kupyansk direction in one day.

Air defense systems shot down two HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems .

In addition, 143 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, including Bayraktar TB-2, were destroyed during the day , including in the areas of Volokitino, Sumy region, Krasnohorivka, Orlovka, Verkhnetoretskoye, Pervomaiskoye, Pavlovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Sinkovka, Tokarevka of the Kharkov region , New, Shcherbaki, Zaporozhye region, Tyaginka, Berislav and Skadovsk, Kherson region.

In total , since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 575 aircraft, 267 helicopters, 14,112 unmanned aerial vehicles, 476 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,335 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,228 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 8,275 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 19,298 units of special military vehicles.

▫️Operational-tactical aviation , unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit an aviation ammunition depot , as well as manpower and military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 106 districts.

Air defense systems shot down two HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems .

In addition, 143 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, including Bayraktar TB-2, were destroyed during the day , including in the areas of Volokitino, Sumy region, Krasnohorivka, Orlovka, Verkhnetoretskoye, Pervomaiskoye, Pavlovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Sinkovka, Tokarevka of the Kharkov region , New, Shcherbaki, Zaporozhye region, Tyaginka, Berislav and Skadovsk, Kherson region.

📊In total , since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 575 aircraft, 267 helicopters, 14,112 unmanned aerial vehicles, 476 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,335 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,228 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 8,275 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 19,298 units of special military vehicles.

(+-25%)

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Two Years of the Russian Military Operation in Ukraine and Ten Years Since the Coup in Kiev That Started It All
MARCH 2, 2024

Image
A compilation image of soldiers on an airfield, a tank and Al Mayadeen's logo. Photo: Hadi Dbouk/Al Mayadeen English.

By Dmitri Kovalevich – Mar 1, 2024

Russia’s military intervention into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, is a direct consequence of the illegal and violent coup in Kiev in February 2014 and the far-right, war-making regime that the coup-installed.

The end of February 2024 marks the tenth anniversary of the pro-Western coup in Kiev, Ukraine that overthrew the country’s elected president and legislature. It is also the second anniversary of Russia’s entry into the civil conflict in Ukraine that has raged ever since the 2014 coup. Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’, as the Russian government and people call it, is a direct consequence of the coup and the deep divisions in Ukrainian society that the coup brought to the fore and deepened.

The main trigger of the coup was the violent overthrow of the elected president of Ukraine and, shortly after, its elected legislature. The coup touched off a violent and unrelenting ideological and institutional drive to suppress the multinational character of Ukraine, as inherited from the Russian Revolution of 1917 and the decades of progress and development during Soviet Ukraine before and after World War Two. All things ‘Russian’ were henceforth targets for elimination by an emboldened Ukrainian ultranationalism on the march.

Since 2014, television and media outlets in the Russian language have been banned. Political parties that opposed the 2014 coup have been banned. Writers and activists have been driven underground or abroad. Some have been massacred, as in the city of Odessa on May 4, 2014. Monuments and place names honoring Soviet Ukraine’s past have been dismantled, in many cases replaced by monuments honoring the Nazi collaborators of the World War Two era. Glorification of, and monuments to, Ukrainian Nazi collaborators from those years is now common.

Ten years ago, days before the actual coup, unknown snipers began shooting both protesters and police officers in the battleground of Kiev’s central square, commonly called ‘Maidan’ Square’. (The name ‘Maidan’ came to describe the pro-coup movement as a whole.) According to victims’ testimonies, some of which were voiced at the flawed and drawn-out trials in which few of the trigger-pullers were charged and none convicted, the deadly fire came from the roofs of buildings seized and controlled by the coup’s far-right, paramilitary shock troops.

The ‘Maidan Massacre’ on February 20, 2014 was a key moment in justifying the coup before the populations of the Western countries because Western media and governments immediately blamed anti-coup forces (so-called ‘pro-Russians’) for the deaths that occurred. They waged a frenetic propaganda drive to turn the tide of public opinion and convince it that supporters of the president and legislature being targeted by the coup were responsible for the more than 100 shooting deaths that occurred that day.

Radical ultranationalists were the strike force of the new, pro-U.S., and pro-European Union government that came to power. Resistance against them was concentrated in Crimea, in the industrial working-class regions of Donbass in the east of the country, and in the city and surroundings of Odessa in the country’s southwest.

Resistance to the coup and to the far-right paramilitaries took some months to develop in Donbass because there were no governing structures there to which the population could turn for protection in the highly centralized, post-1991 Ukraine.

In the city of Odessa, resistance to the coup was tragically suppressed in a massacre of protesters in the city center on May 4 that killed more than 40.

Crimea resisted and survived the coup thanks to the existence of an autonomous, regional government to which the population could turn for protection. Crimea was the only region of Ukraine to have such an autonomous government. This was and remains a legacy of the self-determination policies of the 1917 Russian Revolution. The ‘Autonomous Republic of Crimea’ survived the secession of Ukraine from the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1990-91 and became a thorn in the side of the nationalist government in Kiev that oversaw the transition of Ukraine’s planned economy under Soviet rule to today’s disastrous capitalist economy. Today, Ukraine’s economy is utterly subordinate and beholden to the United States, Britain, and the large powers of the European Union.

Over the past ten years, millions of former citizens of Ukraine have migrated to Russia from eastern and central Ukraine for safety and for better social and economic opportunities. On the western side of the country, millions have migrated to countries of the European Union, continuing and accelerating the trend of Ukrainians escaping the disaster of the country’s post-Soviet, capitalist economy and social system.

Some estimates place Ukraine’s current population at 28 million, down from some 45 million at the time of its 1991 secession from the USSR. But no one knows for sure because, conveniently for the coup leaders and their Western sponsors, the last census conducted by the Ukraine government was more than 20 years ago, in 2001.

The betrayal by the Western powers of the Minks-2 peace agreement of 2015
In February 2015, a major ceasefire and peace agreement was agreed to by Ukraine, following a major military defeat it suffered in Donbass, in and around the small city of Debaltsevo. The ‘Minsk 2’ agreement (text here) was a political settlement that would grant autonomy to the two Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. It could have served as a model for other regions of Ukraine with large populations of Russian language and culture or with smaller populations of national minorities, such as the restive people of Hungarian origin living for centuries in what became western Ukraine in the 20th century.

The autonomy provisions of Minsk 2 resembled the powers exercised by states in the U.S. and provinces in Canada. Co-signing the agreement as guarantors were Russia, France and Germany. It was endorsed by no less than the UN Security Council five days later, on February 17.

But the Kiev regime never lived up to Minsk 2. It was encouraged by ‘co-guarantors’ France and Germany to ignore it. The regime spent the years following 2015 refusing to implement the agreement while militarily reinforcing the Donbass territory it continued to occupy, all in anticipation of relaunching a war against all those Ukrainians resisting the 2014 coup regime and its far-right ideology. As it did this, the regime received more and more financial and weapons support from the West. Today’s destruction of cities such as Mariupol and Bahmut (Artyomovsk to Russians) and of districts on the western edges of Donetsk city, such as Adviivka, are precisely a consequence of double-dealing over Minsk 2, by the Kiev regime and its Western backers.

On the two-year anniversary of Russia’s 2022 intervention, President Vladimir Putin explained how the Russian Federation waited patiently for the implementation of Minsk 2 and felt deeply betrayed by the failure of Kiev and the Western powers to do so. He said, “The Russian Federation did not know that European partners were not going to fulfill the Minsk agreements. We tried hard to implement them.”

A world in which treaties are coming to mean nothing
The events of the last decade have shown that in today’s world of Western powers feeling omnipotent, signed treaties may be disregarded, in violation of long-established principles of international diplomacy. Russian writer Ivan Lizan argued on Telegram on February 19: “Treaties must be honored, Pacta sunt servanda (‘Agreements must be kept’). So sounds like the cornerstone principle of civil and international law. But the period from 2014 to 2022 has shown that treaties are no longer necessarily respected by the Western powers, in the belief that the promised, binding pledge to fulfill them is nothing more than mental inertia amidst a tendency to preserve the existing status quo and refuse to revise them.”

In the Russian Federation, entire teams of lawyers continue to work diligently to comply de jure with every letter of a treaty signed by the country. But Western ideologues, including the liberal variant, are increasingly manipulating the moral and ethical dimensions of diplomacy in order to revise existing or future agreements in their favor.

Indeed, the Ukraine coup ten years ago took place one day after then-President Viktor Yanukovych had signed an agreement to resolve the political crisis in the country that burst into the open in November 2013. At that time, it seemed that Ukraine was in the final stage of an agreement for ‘economic association’ with the European Union, but Yanukovych and his government wanted time to further consider the negative, long-term consequences for economic relations with the Russian Federation. Additionally, Russia was offering better financial assistance, including improvements to then-existing financial agreements, in order to avoid painful and very disruptive reductions of economic ties between the two countries.

A political agreement to resolve the exploding crisis in Ukraine in February 2014 was mediated by the foreign ministers of Germany, France, and Poland. It envisioned presidential elections in the fall of 2014, one year before they were constitutionally due. Yanukovych pledged he would not take any forceful action against the pro-Western and pro-coup protesters that were violently disrupting Kiev and cities in western Ukraine. But the coup’s rightist paramilitaries simply proceeded to storm and occupy central Kiev and force Yanukovych to flee for his life, all in violation of the agreement reached one day earlier!

Ukraine’s not-so-subtle threat in early 2022 to acquire ire nuclear weapons
At the annual Munich Security Conference in February 2022, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, voiced the possibility that his government may scrap its commitment to relinquish nuclear weapons, as agreed in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum (which was subsequently implemented by Ukraine). He said, “If we do receive the security guarantees we seek, then we reserve the right to withdraw from the Budapest Memorandum.” This set off alarm bells at the highest levels in an already apprehensive Moscow. The following day, the leaders of the autonomous governments of Donetsk and Lugansk (soon to become fully constituent republics of the Russian Federation, as per the long-held wishes of the populations there, announced the beginning of mass evacuations eastward of their citizens, away from the lines of military contact between the two republics and Ukraine. Five days later, Russia launched its military operation.

This year, at the same conference in Munich, Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko pointedly asked U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken whether Ukraine could expect an invitation to join NATO within a reasonable duration of time. He wrote on Telegram on February 18, “A nuclear state is fighting against us, so we either become NATO members, allied with nuclear-armed states, or we have to work on restoring our nuclear potential.” His Telegram message noted that Blinken failed to answer his direct query. Honcharenko is an ally of former president Poroshenko (2014-19, defeated in the 2019 election.)

According to the Financial Times, the overall sentiment of conference attendees in Munich this year was changed compared to the previous year’s conference. “Twelve months ago, delegates at the Munich Security Conference radiated optimism about the prospects for Ukraine, as the West vowed to back Kiev for ‘as long as it takes’ in its war with Russia. This year, with the conflict tilting in Russia’s favor and with faith in Western support ebbing away, that optimism has flipped into unremitting gloom.”



The retaking of Avdiivka and the flight of Ukrainian troops
At the end of February 2024, while Zelensky was expounding at the Munich Conference about Ukraine’s vital role in “defending Europe”, the Russian armed forces, including large detachments from the former self-defense forces of Donetsk and Lugansk, were raising a red flag with a hammer and sickle over the newly retaken Avdiivka, on the very spot where Zelensky had issued public relations statements only days earlier.

In 2014-2015, Avdiivka, close enough to Donetsk city to qualify as a suburb and with an estimated pre-war population of 30,000, was one of the centers of popular resistance to the Ukrainian ultranationalists and paramilitaries. In 2015, there were regular mass rallies against the presence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city and region. At the time, the AFU was undergoing a fundamental transformation, with rightist paramilitaries taking over important, leading positions and with their units acquiring semi-formal status. Soldiers and officers of the soon-to-be transformed AFU who were reluctant to open fire on their fellow citizens and enter into civil war were being purged.

By February 2024, only some several hundred residents were still surviving, somehow, in the city, perhaps as many as 1,000. For almost two years, they had been hiding in basements, evading mandatory evacuation orders by Ukraine, and suffering the shelling by Russia needed to suppress the AFU’s constant shelling of Donetsk city and districts.

Tatyana, one of the residents of Avdiivka who stubbornly refused to leave, spoke about her ordeal, as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense and cited in the February 20 edition of the Russian weekly newspaper Argumenty i Fakty. “It was a very scary time. We lived in basements, we could only go out to gather water when there was a calm, but even then we always had to duck down… ”

“The day before yesterday when we went out, we saw military people but didn’t understand right away who it was. And then I saw red ribbons! [Russian soldiers wear red ribbons on their sleeves while Ukrainian soldiers wear blue or yellow ribbons]. We couldn’t believe our eyes! We told them how happy we were to see them.”

Since 2015, the AFU has turned Avdiivka into a large, underground, fortified bunker. Ukrainian political scientist and historian Konstantin Bondarenko was cited on the Telegram messenger service on February 19 explaining, “Avdiivka is the settlement that allowed us to shell Donetsk [city] for ten years.”

On the eve of the loss of Avdiivka, in anticipation of its loss, Zelensky changed the commander-in-chief of the AFU. General Valeriy Zaluzhny was out, replaced by General Oleksandr Syrskyy. The new commander-in-chief has long been called ‘The Butcher’ by Ukrainian soldiers due to his record of sacrificing thousands and thousands of their lives in order to hold positions. In the spring of 2023, he commanded the Ukrainian troops tasked with holding the city of Bakhmut (called Artyomovsk in Donbass and Russia, located some 70 km north of Donetsk city, prewar population of 70,000) and the nearby town of Soledar. Both were lost.

In 2015, Syrskyy commanded the Ukraine’s military operation around the small city of Debaltsevo, which ended in a stinging defeat for Ukraine and which set the stage for Kiev to grudgingly sign the Minsk 2 agreement.

The retreat of the AFU from Avdiivka took on the character of a panic flight in its closing days. Russian war correspondent Alexei Zhivov reported on Telegram, “There is a big difference between an organized withdrawal of troops to pre-prepared positions, and a disorderly flight. Avdiivka is the first time we have seen a panic flight of Ukraine’s troops. This phenomenon is not so much military as sociological. It is connected with a rising panic among the Ukrainian population as a whole.”

There are about 460,000 Russian troops in Ukraine, according to calculations by Ukrainian experts. Zelensky says Ukraine still has an army of “one million”. The ratio of drones in Ukraine today is three to one in favor of Russia, according to Ukrainian military officials, while the ratio of artillery fire is ten to one in favor of Russia. Russia has complete air superiority, though Western-supplied missiles remain a serious threat.

Racism to please Western creditors
The mobilization of Russian society in support of its war effort has been greatly boosted by the racist and anti-Russia ideology that has become dominant in the governing circles of Ukraine since 2014. That ideology is all too well known in Russia, says Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch. He writes in a lengthy entry on Telegram: “Our government propaganda and public mainstream have given to Putin a truly royal gift through their dehumanization of all things Russian: racist theories about the ‘inferiority of Russia’ as a nation; negative and racist language describing Russians as a ‘Finno-Uralic’ people (the languages of Finland and Hungary have distant, common origins in the ‘Uralic’ family of languages); and terms such as ‘hordes’ and ‘Asiatic’ to describe Russians. People in Finland, Hungary, and Kazakhstan and elsewhere in Asia obviously take offense.”

He continues, “Even those Russians who sympathized with Ukraine could not understand why they were seeing the demolition of Pushkin monuments in that country.” (Alexander Pushkin is a celebrated and revered poet of the 19th century in today’s Russia and neighboring republics; his great-grandfather was African.)

Ukrainian millionaires profiting from war
The head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, Daniil Getmantsev of Zelensky’s ‘Servant of the People’ political party apparatus recently said half the Ukrainian economy operates in black market conditions, including trade in goods and gambling.

A small number of wealthy Ukrainians continue to benefit from the conflict with Russia. Ukraine’s economy has declined sharply since Russia’s military intervention, and this was preceded by the emigration of millions of economic migrants to Western Europe in 2014. Thousands of enterprises have closed, and thousands of square kilometers of precious agricultural land have been mined or are otherwise unusable. Yet the number of millionaires in Ukraine grew by 16 percent in 2023, as reported by the Ukrainian edition of Forbes Magazine in late February 2024, citing the aforementioned Getmantsev. Forbes says the information is drawn from official tax returns and adds that many wealthy Ukrainians avoid submitting tax returns altogether.

A significant part of Ukrainian business has realized that it is more profitable to produce anti-Russian rhetoric and take control of Western aid supplies than to produce locomotives and tractors or raise chickens in commercial henhouses. But for this to happen, workers ‘freed’ from working and earning incomes must be herded into the trenches of war. An old Russian and Ukrainian proverb says: “To some, war is hell. To others, it is a kindly mother”.

Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine will end sooner or later. However, we can already say that part of Russia’s goals have been achieved. Ukraine has already been ‘demilitarized and denazified’ to some degree, having lost a significant part of its territory, military arsenal, and neo-Nazi shock troops. Western military arsenals are gradually being emptied as well.

At some point, Kiev will be abandoned, just as the former pro-American government in Afghanistan was abandoned in 2021. Before that happens, many Ukrainian officials will have escaped untouched to the West, along with their ill-gotten wealth and valuables.

(Al Mayadeen English)

https://orinocotribune.com/two-years-of ... ed-it-all/

******

Here’s why the West can’t be trusted to observe its own ‘red lines’ in Ukraine

With Macron refusing to rule out a troop deployment, and a leaked conversation between German officers, more escalation is certain

By Tarik Cyril Amar, a historian from Germany working at Koç University, Istanbul, on Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe, the history of World War II, the cultural Cold War, and the politics of memory

Image
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (L) and French President Emmanuel Macron at the Chancellery in Berlin on January 22, 2024 © John MACDOUGALL / AFP

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have disagreed publicly over how to support Ukraine – which has been ruthlessly deployed by the West as a geopolitical proxy – in its conflict with Russia. Macron used a special EU meeting he had convened, rumor has it directly inspired by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, to state, in effect, that sending Western combat troops into Ukraine was an option.

Of course, the West already has troops on the ground, including those flimsily camouflaged as volunteers and mercenaries, or otherwise participating in the conflict (for instance by planning and targeting), as a recent leak of US documents has confirmed. But an open intervention by ground forces would be a severe escalation, directly pitting Russia and NATO against each other, as Moscow has quickly pointed out, and making nuclear escalation a real possibility.

Russia has deliberately tolerated a certain degree of Western intervention, for its own pragmatic reasons: In essence, it seeks to win the war in Ukraine, while avoiding an open conflict with NATO. It is willing to pay the price of having to deal with some de facto Western military meddling, as long as it is confident it can defeat it on the Ukrainian battlefield. Indeed, the strategy has the added advantage that the West is bleeding its own resources, while the Russian military is receiving excellent hands-on training in how to neutralize Western hardware, including much-touted “miracle weapons.”

You do not have to believe Moscow’s words, but simply consult elementary logic to understand that there is an equally hard-headed limit to this kind of calculated tolerance. If the Russian leadership were to conclude that Western military forces in Ukraine were endangering its objectives (instead of merely making achieving them harder), it would raise the price for certain Western countries. (Selective treatment would be adopted to put under stress – quite possibly to breaking point – Western cohesion.)

Consider Germany, for instance: Berlin is by far Ukraine’s biggest bilateral financial supporter among EU states (at least in terms of commitments). Yet militarily, for now, Russia has been content with, in essence, shredding German Leopard tanks as they arrive on the battlefield. And, in a sense, punishing Germany’s meddling can safely be left to its own government: the country has already taken massive hits to its economy and international standing.

But if Berlin were to go even further, Moscow’s calculations would change. In that case, as little as German mass media allow German citizens to think about it, a “sobering” (to use a term from Russian doctrine) strike – initially probably non-nuclear – on German forces and territory is possible. The domestic consequences of such an attack are unpredictable. Germans might rally round the flag, or they might openly rebel against an already deeply unpopular government that has been sacrificing the national interest with unprecedented bluntness to Washington’s geopolitics.

If you think the above sounds a little far-fetched, I know of someone who clearly does not share your complacency: the German chancellor. Stung by Macron’s provocation, Scholz countered with telling alacrity. Within 24 hours after the surprise French move, he publicly ruled out the sending of “ground troops” by “European nations or NATO nations,” underlining that that this red line has always been agreed on.

In addition, the chancellor also chose exactly this moment to reaffirm that Germany will not deliver its Taurus cruise missiles to Kiev, as escalation that proponents have long demanded, including inside Germany. With, according to Scholz, the capability of striking Moscow, Berlin’s missiles in Ukrainian hands and Macron’s hypothetical ground forces have one thing in common: they come with a serious risk of spreading direct fighting beyond Ukraine, in particular to Western Europe and Germany.

In other words, the leaders of the two countries traditionally recognized as the core of the European Union have displayed profound disagreement on a key issue. Macron, it is true, often says more than he means or will care to remember. Scholz is an extreme opportunist, even by the standards of professional politics. In addition, clearly intentional indiscretions from the two men’s teams point to mutual and heartfelt antipathy, as Bloomberg has just reported. We could dismiss the spat between them as nothing but the result of incompatible political styles and personal animosity.

But that would be a grave mistake. In reality, their open discord is an important signal about the state of thinking, debate, and policy making within the EU, and, more broadly, NATO and the West. The real challenge is to decipher what this signal means.

Let’s start with something the two leaders will not openly admit but, it is virtually certain, share: The background to their quarrel is their fear that Ukraine and the West are not only losing the conflict, but more importantly in the information-streamlined West, that this defeat is about to become undeniably obvious. For instance, in the shape of further Russian advances, including strategic victories like the taking of Avdeevka and a partial or total collapse of Ukrainian defenses. Even the robustly bellicose Economist, for instance, is now admitting that Russia’s offensive is “heating up,” that the fall of Avdeevka has not made the Russian military pause, and that Ukrainians themselves are “becoming pessimistic.” Both Macron’s remarks and Scholz’s hasty disclaimer are indicators of a growing and well-founded pessimism, perhaps even incipient panic among Western elites.
Yet that does not tell us much about how these elites really intend to react to this losing game (assuming they know themselves, that is). In principle, there are two strategic options: raise the stakes (again) or cut your losses (finally). At this point, the “raise the stakes” faction is still dominating the policy debate. The negative response to Macron’s show-stealer move has overshadowed that the general trend of the NATO and EU strategy is still to add fresh resources to the fight, for instance by agreeing to source ammunition from outside the EU, a move long resisted by France. At least as far as the public is permitted to see, NATO and the EU are still run by sunk-cost-fallacy addicts: The more they have failed and lost already, the more they want to risk.

In reality, however, the option of deception and the temptation of self-deception (they easily blend into each other, an effect commonly known as “drinking your own Kool Aid”) make things more complicated: Take, for instance, Russia’s evidence, in verbatim transcript detail, of high-ranking German military officers discussing – or was it “brainstorming”? – how Ukraine could, after all, use Taurus missiles to attack the Kerch Strait Bridge that connects Crimea with the Russian mainland, while maintaining, in effect, plausible deniability. Scholz’s public statement that “German soldiers must at no point and in no place be linked” to Taurus attacks is proof that evading responsibility – or the impossibility to do so – are on his mind. As you would expect from a politician whose only strategy is finding the path of least resistance.

The muddled German response to this embarrassing intelligence fiasco (Why exactly was something so obviously sensitive discussed via hackable telecommunications instead of in a secure room, for instance?) only confirms that the Russian evidence is authentic. Instead of denying that the discussion took place, Germany has reacted – in typical authoritarian manner – by blocking social media accounts reporting it, and by trying to spin the conversation as nothing but a harmless thought experiment.

And yet, Scholz’s suspiciously elastic phrasing and the German officers’ discussion do not mean that such a course of naively transparent cheating will be adopted by Berlin. It may even have been a way of figuring out why that would not work.

Especially if this information is not entirely new, Russia’s choosing to publicize it now and perhaps even risking some (minor) intelligence disadvantage by revealing the extent of the German military’s penetration is, of course, also a signal to Germany’s leadership: Moscow will not play along with plausible deniability (a “don’t even try” message) and is deadly serious about this red line (a “we mean it” message). This as well may help focus minds in Berlin and make cheating less likely.

In any case, the evidence of German officers thinking about how to help attack Russia without leaving fingerprints does underline two things: Western public statements can easily be deliberate lies; and even when they are not, they are always open to radical revision. Indeed, Macron, too, alluded to that fact, pointing out that even if direct military intervention is not a consensus yet, it could become one in the future, just as other red lines have been crossed before.
In that light, Macron’s loose talk could be read as just another bluff – or, as they say in France, “strategic ambiguity”: a desperate attempt to strut so fiercely that Russia will not press its military advantage. If that was the French president’s intention, it has backfired spectacularly: Macron has provoked not only Germany but other, bigger Western players as well to clarify that they do not agree with him. Note to the Jupiterian self in the Élysée Palace: It’s not “ambiguous” when everyone who counts says “No way!”; it’s not very “strategic” either.

Yet it would be complacent to take solace from Macron’s current isolation. First, it is not complete: There are hardcore escalationists, such as the Estonian leader Kaja Kallas, in the EU and NATO who have praised him precisely because they want to drag everyone else into a direct clash with Russia. It is good that these especially zealous warmongers do not have the upper hand for now. But they have not been defeated or even appropriately marginalized either, and they will not give up.

Second, a strategy of escalation and threats can get out of hand. Consider the too-little-known fact that, in the July Crisis of 1914, just before World War I started, even the German emperor Wilhelm II had moments where he privately felt that it could still be avoided. That, however, was after he and his government had personally done their worst to bring the big war about. Lesson: If you take too many risks, at some point you may no longer be able to dial down the escalation you have promoted yourself.

Third, and most fundamentally, while rationally applied dishonesty is not unusual in international politics, for an international system to produce stability, it must first produce predictability. That, in turn, requires that even deception is kept within tacitly agreed limits and is, to a degree, predictable (because of its underlying rationality). The problem with the post-Cold War West is that it has chosen to forget and flaunt this basic rule of global order. Its addiction to unreliability is so severe that signals of escalation are inherently more credible than signals of de-escalation, as long as there is no principal, general, and clearly recognizable change of approach.

Put differently, Macron’s current isolation does not count for much because its due-diligence interpretation from Moscow’s perspective has to be that he merely went a little too far too soon. Neither Scholz’s nor other Western disavowals make a difference. What would make a difference is a united and clear signal by the West that it is now ready for genuine negotiations and a real compromise settlement. For now, the opposite remains true.

https://archive.ph/2024.03.02-172357/ht ... 0-1561.442

******

On the supply of French weapons to Ukraine
March 4, 13:43

Image

On the supply of French weapons to Ukraine.

The French Ministry of the Armed Forces has published a list of military assistance provided to Ukraine during the two years of conflict, including long-range missiles and air defense.

https://www.defense.gouv.fr/actualites/ ... ires-livre

Image
Image

The 50-point table includes both protective equipment and communications equipment, as well as various weapons and unmanned vehicles. Data is provided as of December 31, 2023, that is, before the signing of a bilateral security agreement between Paris and Kiev.

Air defense
Among the air defense systems, by the end of 2023, two Crotale NG installations, six Mistral MANPADS, and one French-Italian SAMP/T air defense system were delivered. Ammunition load data is not provided for any of the systems. Also listed in this section is the CM200 air defense radar, however, we are probably talking about the Ground Master 200 (GM200) radar, the transfer of which was announced back in February 2023.

Missiles
Among the air-to-surface weapons, only SCALP missiles (analogous to the British Storm Shadow) are listed, their number is not disclosed.

Artillery
By the end of 2023, Paris transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces 30 Caesar self-propelled artillery units, six retired TRF1 howitzers, four multiple launch rocket systems and 10 120-mm mortars. 30 thousand shells were also supplied to the howitzers. Among the anti-tank systems are 1,002 AT4 grenade launchers and three Milan anti-tank systems.

Combat vehicles
By the end of 2023, France has delivered 38 AMX10 RC light wheeled tanks and 250 armored vehicles with weapons or in ambulance configuration, as well as 120 SUVs and six trucks. The AMX10 RC received 9,000 main gun ammunition.

UAVs
of the Ukrainian Armed Forces received 160 “reconnaissance” drones, as well as 10 devices for detecting drones. It is not specified which drones we are talking about, but in the “sea vessels” column there are only 30 Zodiacs Futura inflatable boats. However, earlier the French authorities announced their desire to expand cooperation in the field of unmanned aerial vehicles and announced plans to build production facilities in Ukraine. This table, judging by the description, only takes into account aid supplied to Ukraine from outside.

Rifle
Indicates 55 machine guns of 7.62 mm caliber, 560 machine guns of 12.7 mm caliber, as well as 1 thousand Famas rifles and 20 sniper rifles. Over the course of two years, they were supplied with 1.7 million rounds of 12.7 mm caliber, 1.1 million rounds of ammunition for small arms, including 9 mm and 5.56 mm calibers, as well as 10.5 thousand grenades and 3.6 thousand anti-tank mines Other items include fuel, protective equipment (body armor, helmets), as well as first aid kits, communications and navigation equipment.

@tacticalnecktie_extra - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9004192.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10769
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Mar 04, 2024 5:26 pm

Russo-Ukrainian War: The Deluge
Z World Turns Two

BIG SERGE
MAR 1, 2024

Image

As the calendar barrels into another year and we tick away the days of February, notable anniversaries are marked off in sequence. It is now 2/22/2022 +2: two years since Putin’s address on the historic status of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, followed on 2/24/2022 by the commencement of the Special Military Operation and the spectacular resumption of history.

The nature of the war changed dramatically after a kinetic and mobile opening phase. With the collapse of the negotiation process (whether thanks to Boris Johnson or not), it became clear that the only way out of the conflict would be through the strategic defeat of one party by the other. Thanks to a pipeline of western support (in the form of material, financial aid, and ISR and targeting assistance) which allowed Ukraine to transcend its rapidly evaporating indigenous war economy, it became clear that this would be a war of industrial attrition, rather than rapid maneuver and annihilation. Russia began to mobilize resources for this sort of attritional war in the Autumn of 2022, and since then the war has attained its present quality - that of a firepower intensive but relatively static positional struggle.

The nature of this attritional-positional war lends itself to analytic ambiguity, because it denies the most attractive and obvious signs of victory and defeat in large territorial changes. Instead, a whole host of anecdotal, small scale positional analysis, and foggy data has to suffice, and this can be easily misconstrued or misunderstood. Ukraine’s supporters point to nominally small scale advances to support their notion that Russia is suffering cataclysmic casualties to capture small villages. This suggests that Russia is winning meaningless, pyrrhic victories which will lead to its exhaustion, so long as Ukraine receives everything it asks for from the west. At the same time, the Z-sphere points to these same battles as evidence that Ukraine can no longer hold even its most heavily defended fortress cities.

What I intend to argue here is that 2024 will be highly decisive for the war, as the year in which Ukrainian strategic exhaustion begins to show out at the same time that Russia’s strategic investments begin to pay off on the battlefield. This is the way of such an attritional conflict, which burdens armies with cumulative and constant stressors in a test of their recuperative powers. Wear and tear and the raging of the waters will erode and burden the dike until it bursts. And then the deluge comes.

Avdiivka: Tactical Overmatch
The signature operational development of 2024 is at this point clearly the complete Russian capture of Avdiivka. The strategic significance of Avdiivka has itself been subject to debate, with some dismissing it as little more than a dingy suburb of Donetsk, targeted to give Putin a symbolic victory on the eve of Russian elections.

In fact, Avdiivka is clearly a locale with great operational significance. A Ukrainian fortress since the beginning of the Donbass War in 2014, Avdiivka served as a keystone blocking position for the AFU on the doorstep of Donetsk, sitting on a major supply corridor. Its capture creates space for Russia to begin a multi-pronged advance on next-phase Ukrainian strongholds like Konstantinivka and Pokrovsk (more on that later) and pushes Ukrainian artillery away from Donetsk.

The subject that would seem to be of particular importance, however, was the manner in which Russia captured Avdiivka. The struggle amid the wreckage of an industrial city provided something of a Rorschach test for the war, with some seeing the battle as yet another application of Russian “meat assaults”, overwhelming the AFU defenders with mass amid horrific casualties.

Image

This story does not hold up to scrutiny, as I would like to demonstrate from a variety of angles. First, we can try to gauge casualties. This is always difficult to do with a high degree of accuracy, but it would be useful to look for abnormalities or spikes in Russian loss patterns. The most widely accepted source for this would be the Mediazona casualty tracker (an explicitly anti-Putinist media project operated out of the west).

When one goes to examine the Mediazona counts, an interesting discrepancy manifests itself. The summary text notes that a four-month battle for Avdiivka has recently concluded, and Mediazona states: “We are seeing significant growth of Russian casualties since mid-October.” This is actually quite odd, because their data shows the literal opposite. Since October 10 (the day of the first major Russian mechanized assault on Avdiivka), Mediazona has counted an average of 48 Russian casualties per day, which is actually significantly less than the burn rate earlier in the year. In contrast, Mediazona counted 80 casualties per day on average from January 1 to October 9. This period, of course, includes heavy fighting in Bakhmut, so if one takes the period between the end of the Battle of Bakhmut and the beginning of the Battle of Avdiivka (May 20 to October 9) one finds an average of 60 Russian casualties per day. A time series of Mediazona’s weekly confirmed casualties also shows a downward trend, making one wonder how they can feel comfortable claiming that the action in Avdiivka has raised the burn rate.

Image

Furthermore, Ukrainian sources on the ground emphasized that the Russian assault in Avdiivka was quite certainly not a mere function of mass, and noted effective Russian small unit tactics with a powerful fire support. One Ukrainian officer told Politico: “That’s how they work in Avdiivka — artillery levels everything to the ground, and then professional landing troops come in small groups.” Another officer described Russian small unit assaults (5 to 7 men) occurring at night. All of this is inconsistent with the trope about Russian “human wave” assaults - which, we should note, have never been caught on camera. Given the Ukrainian fondness for sharing combat footage, oughtn’t we expect to see some alleged evidence of these Russian waves being mowed down?

All this is to say, the claim that Russia (yet again) suffered catastrophic losses in Avdiivka is simply not supported. Like a previous analysis in which I showed that Russian armor losses were not rising or showing abnormal patterns, we yet again have a major Russian assault failing to cause a spike in the loss data. This is not to deny that Russia has suffered casualties. The operation at Avdiivka was a high intensity, four month battle. Men are killed and vehicles are destroyed in such affairs, but there is little evidence that this occurred at abnormal or alarming rates for the Russian Armed Forces.

Now, you’re certainly free to make your own judgements, and I have no doubt that the belief in massive Russian casualties and human wave assaults will endure. However, to believe this, you must make an epistemological leap of faith - believing that the wasteful human waves exist despite Ukrainian fighters testifying to the opposite, and that Russian casualties have risen in a way that is somehow invisible to trackers like Warspotting and Mediazona.

In contrast, Avdiivka stands out as the first major engagement of the war where Ukraine’s growing material shortages have been acutely felt. After burning through much of their accumulated stock (including the large batch of shells purchased from South Korea by the United States), the AFU felt a glaring and painful artillery shortage in Avdiivka. Complaints about “shell hunger” were a motif of the coverage of the battle. Of course, we’ve heard about the growing shell shortage for months (and it is known that Ukraine simply does not have enough tubes to cover the entire front), but Avdiivka stands out as a keystone position, important enough for Ukraine to scramble premier assets to reinforce it, where they simply could not provide an adequate base of fire.

Image
Avdiivka

In the absence of adequate artillery, Ukraine has increasingly tried to lean on FPV drones as a substitute. There is a certain strategic logic to this, in that small drones can be manufactured in distributed facilities and do not require the capital intensive production centers (vulnerable to Russian strike systems) that artillery shells do.

However, drones are clearly not a panacea to Ukraine’s problems. In the simple technical sense, the destructive power of an FPV drone (which usually carries the warhead of a rocket propelled grenade) pales in comparison to an artillery shell and is thus unsuitable for suppressive fire or the reduction of strongpoints. Drones are also subject to disruptions from weather and electronic warfare in ways that artillery is not. More importantly, however, Ukraine is simply losing the drone race. Ukraine’s achievements ramping up drone production in wartime are genuinely impressive, but the country’s industrial base is still far smaller and more vulnerable than Russia’s, and Russia’s drone production is starting to widely outstrip Ukraine’s. Ukraine’s weakness in other arms prompted them to be the first party to lean heavily on FPVs, but that early lead has been lost.

So, drones clearly offer a lethal and important battlefield expedient, but they are neither a genuine replacement for artillery nor an arm of clear advantage for Ukraine. The result was a Ukrainian defense in Avdiivka that was substantially outgunned. The problem was compounded by the rapid proliferation of Russian air dropped glide bombs, alongside the degradation of Ukraine’s air defense. This allowed the Russian air force to operate around Avdiivka with something approaching impunity, dropping hundreds of glide bombs with the power to - unlike artillery shells, let alone tiny FPV warheads - level the fortified concrete blocks that normally make Soviet vintage cities so durable in urban fighting.

Thus, Avdiivka unfolded along a pattern that is now becoming very familiar, and indicates the emerging Russian preference for assaulting cities, at least of this mid-sized fortress variety. Once again the operation focused in its preliminary phase on flaring out Russian control over the flanks, beginning with the large mechanized assault in early November which secured positions on the railway line to the north of the city. Again (as in the case of Bakhmut and Lysychansk-Severodonetsk) there was an expectation among some that Russia would attempt to encircle the city, but this still does not look feasible in the current operating environment under the nexus of fires and ISR. Instead, positions on the flank allowed the Russians to launch concentric attacks into the city, entering on multiple axes that compressed the Ukrainian defenders into a tight interior position, where Russian fire could be heavily concentrated.

Image
Concentric Attack on Avdiivka: February 7-14 (Base Map courtesy of Kalibrated Maps)

The particular combination of concentric attack and overwhelming Russian fires led to a very rapid end to the battle once the Russian push into the city proper began. While the creep around the flanks occurred in a sequence of on and off pushes through the winter, the concentric crush on the city lasted scarcely more than a week. On February 7-8 the Russians achieved breakthroughs in both the northern and southern suburbs, and by February 14 the Ukrainians were in retreat. A few pockets of resistance would linger for only a few days.

Despite statements alleging that they had conducted an “orderly withdrawal”, there is abundant evidence that the Ukrainians were taken aback by the tempo of the Russian assault, and the evacuation was hastily organized and only partially completed. A large number of personnel were unable to escape and are now POWs, and it is clear that Ukraine did not have time or energies to evacuate the wounded, instead ordering that they simply be left behind. The general picture is of a chaotic and ad-hoc retreat from the city, not an orderly and pre-planned withdrawal.

The issue for Ukraine now goes beyond the loss of Avdiivka and the opportunities that this will create for Russia. Ukraine now has proof of failure on both the attack and the defense in operations where they concentrated significant forces. Their counteroffensive on Russia’s Zaporhzia Line was a catastrophic failure, wasting much of the AFU’s carefully husbanded mechanized package, and now they have a failed defense on their hands in Avdiivka, despite fighting out of a well prepared fortress and scrambling reserves into the sector to reinforce the defense.

The question now becomes fairly simple: if Ukraine failed to attack successfully over the summer, if they could not defend Bakhmut, and if they cannot defend in Avdiivka, is there anywhere that they can find a battlefield success? The dam is leaking. Can Ukraine plug it before it collapses?

Russia’s Full Court Press
Ukraine’s force structure is always notoriously difficult to parse out, due to their propensity for ad-hoc battlegroups and their practice of piecemeal allocation of forces to resident brigade commands (turning brigade headquarters into the cups in a shell game). Truth be told, Ukrainian ORBAT and force allocation is in a class all its own - to try and get a handle on it, you can do no better than Matt Davies’ excellent work over on X dot com. This generally makes the AFU’s organization and force generation more opaque and more difficult to parse out than Russia’s, for example. While Russia employs conventional army level groupings, Ukraine does not, and indeed lacks any organic commands above the brigade level.

That being said, the basic picture is one of three Ukrainian “Operational Strategic Groupings”, which are vaguely akin to army groups. These are, from north to south, Operation Strategic Groupings (OSGs) Khortytsia, Tavriya, and Odessa. Against these are arrayed four Russian Army Groups - from north to south, these are Army Groups West, Center, East, and Dnieper. Assessing the total line strength is always difficult, largely because we do not always have good insight into the actual combat rating of these units. However, we can make estimates of paper strength. Based on deployment information from the Project Owl Ukraine Control Map and the Militaryland Deployment Map, we can estimate that the nominal strength in the theater right now is some 33 Division Equivalents for Ukraine against perhaps 50 DEs for Russia - a significant, but not utterly overwhelming Russian advantage. We get a picture something like this (Ukrainian Army level formations are absent because they do not exist):

Image
Ukrainian Theater Army and Group Level Commands (Base Control Map provided by Kalibrated Maps)

At the moment, Russia is grinding slowly forward on almost every axis in the theater. This has both strategic/attritional implications, in that the Ukrainians are forced to continually burn reserves while being denied the ability to rotate and reconstitute units, but there is also a clear operational formulation occurring.

The Russian maneuver scheme must be held in reference to their minimum end state objectives - namely, the capture of the remaining Donbas urban agglomerations around Slovyansk and Kramatorsk (though we should not assume that the war or Russian ambitions end there). At the moment, there are several major axes of advance, which I am labelling as follows:

Image
Russian Axes of Attack (Base Control Map provided by Kalibrated Maps)

The intention of these thrusts is fairly obvious. In the center of the front, Russian advances on the Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar axes converge on the critical Ukrainian hub of Konstyantinivka, the capture of which is one of the absolute prerequisites for any serious attempt to move on the Kramatorsk agglomeration. Russian bases of control around Avdiivka and Bakhmut provide the necessary space to begin a two-pronged operation towards Konstyantinivka, bypassing and enveloping the strongly held Ukrainian fortress of Toretsk. (See the map below, which I made in December before the capture of Avdiivka).

Image
Concentric Operation toward Konstyantinikva (Base map from Suriyak)

Meanwhile, continued Russian pressure on the northern front (via a slow squeeze on the city of Kupyansk, at the top of the Oskil line as well as operations towards Lyman on the Zherebets axis) provide a base of progress towards the other operational perquisite for Kramatorsk, which is the Russian recapture of the north bank of the Donets River, up to the confluence of the Oskil at Izyum.

Image
Russia’s North Donetsk Campaign

Meanwhile, on the more southerly axes, Russia continues to expand its zone of control after the capture of Marinka, likely with the aim of developing momentum towards Kurakhove, which would put the Ukrainian fortress of Ugledar in a more severe salient. Ugledar remains a thorn in Russia’s side, in that it lies uncomfortable close to Russian rail lines into the land bridge. Russia is also attacking the Ukrainian held Robotyne salient (the sparse fruits of Ukraine’s counteroffensive). While these attacks have, as we have mentioned, attritional benefits by way of pinning Ukrainian forces in the line, it seems likely that Russia would aim to recapture the Robotyne salient to preempt any Ukrainian designs of using it as a springboard for a future attempt to restart operations towards Tokmak. Thus, these southern operations have both attritive effects and offer the potential of preventatively neutralizing useful Ukrainian staging points.

Image

Overall, the broad operational situation suggests that Russia is developing offensive momentum across the entire theater. This will have deleterious effects on Ukrainian combat power by preventing rotation, reconstitution, and lateral troop redeployment, while sucking in the dwindling Ukrainian reserves. Shoigu recently made an uncharacteristically bold statement that the AFU was committing much of its remaining reserves:

“"After the collapse of the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian army command has been trying to stabilize the situation at the expense of the remaining reserves and prevent the collapse of the frontline.”

This is, if not totally verifiable, at least notable given his general reticence to make sweeping statements about the state of the war.

In the near term (meaning the spring and summer months) we should expect Russia to progress towards the following intermediate operational goals:

Developing a concentric offensive towards the Ukrainian agglomerations around Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kontyantinivka

An offensive along the Zherebets-Oskil line towards Lyman, to capture or screen the Donetsk River line as a prerequisite for an operation against Kramatorsk

Continued assaults towards Kurakhove in preparation for the liqudiation of the Ugledar salient

Preventative attacks towards the Orakhiv axis to prevent future Ukrainian attempts to exploit the Robotyne salient

(Much more at link, check it out.)

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-u ... the-deluge

******

Germans Plotting Attack on Russian Infrastructure: A Bridge Too Far

Martin Jay

March 2, 2024

The comical aspect of the entire leak though is how poor the German intelligence services are in general, Martin Jay writes.

Three things hit you about the reported phone tap of German officials discussing destroying the Crimean Bridge. 1. How stupid the Germans are, to think that their pitiful of not plain childish attempts to distance themselves from the war itself is fooling Russia. 2. That Germany believes that isolated but significant attacks on Russian military infrastructure would be a decisive turning point in the war which not even NATO bosses can deny Ukraine is losing. 3. How western media has more or less left the whole subject alone, fearing that it doesn’t help the West’s cause which they (media) are aligned to.

But without doubt, the fact that we are now entering a new phase in the war where the West feels it has to resort to more and more desperate tactics, rather than stick to the conventions, we can see from the transcripts that a certain panic is taking hold within the German government and its military. Berlin is certainly thinking big. But it is also thinking maximum plausible deniability. It is thinking Battle of the Bulge.

The comical aspect of the entire leak though is how poor the German intelligence services are in general. It was always a joke, going back to WWII where German spooks could be spotted a mile off in London or indeed the fact that during the same period its own agencies were fooled by a handful of British double agents over the location of the landings, that Germany doesn’t really do spying very well. Like media, these are two areas which we can say are not in decline as they never advanced in the first place. The leaking, or the lack of security, over the discussions are an intelligence failure which makes the Germans look like amateurs at best and deluded half wits at worse over how they see themselves, given these past two years where they have rapidly developed their military capabilities.

When, at the beginning of the Ukraine war Scholz had his “moment” in the German parliament where he announced a new level or military spending many Germans paused and became nervous about the possibility of history repeating itself. But they were not alone. Many Europeans wondered about how wise the move was as it propelled a weak and ineffective coalition government down a dangerous and treacherous path towards exactly the same circumstances which led to the collapse of democracy in the 1930s and the rapid emergence of Hitler and his so-called “socialist” party: nationalism.

Also, comical are the number of times these officials talk about the British who they call “the English” and how they consider them to be such important partners in the war against Russia, not only from a strategic standpoint but also a financial one. Roger and Fritz are closer than they’ve ever been.

But the obsession with the Crimean bridge is interesting as the transcripts reveal that it is on the Ukrainian side where the idea to hit it comes. The German airforce senior officials are sceptical about hitting the bridge with sufficient impact to actually destroy it and even less convinced that the Ukrainians can do this on their own. The idea of a French made Rafael jet is suggested for the job, but they believe that it would require 20 Taurus missiles to destroy it to any significant level. What exactly the Russians do while a French fighter jet repeats sortie after sortie dropping its bombs is unclear.

There is also the problem of how to deflect attention or finger pointing when the job is done. It’s here where we see that the German air force commanders are woefully ignorant and misinformed about the realities on Russian intelligence. The Germans actually believe they can protect themselves with a ring of disinformation and amateur distractions – like having their own people, while in Kiev talk with strong American accents while doing the training and logistics right through to insisting that the Ukrainians make a documented approach to the Germans for the equipment and training. As though this would temper the Russians even if they believed it once the bridge is destroyed! We are really in the land of amateur spooking here which leads the reader to believe that the Germans have decades ahead of them in how be an effective fighting force on the international stage when they are so plagued by rank amateurism – the same dismal lack of planning which made them lose the battle of Barbarossa in the second world war. Planning is a word which comes up in the conversation transcripts a lot as it is an obsession of German public servants, whether they be in the military or work for Deutsche Welle news department – the latter a public funded German propaganda station which is so bad that even Germans gave up watching it years ago, forcing its executives to scrap the German language service. And yet it is the lack of planning, but merely the talk of it, which is the real heart of the problem of German thinking. A Bridge Too Far, in fact.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... e-too-far/

******

MARK EPISKOPOS: CIA IN UKRAINE: WHY IS THIS NOT SEEN AS PROVOCATION?
MARCH 2, 2024 NATYLIESB

By Mark Episkopos, Responsible Statecraft, 2/27/24

The White House’s messaging on the Ukraine war is built around two simple-yet-powerful adjectives: “We are united in our condemnation,” said President Joe Biden almost two years ago in a joint statement with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, “of Russia’s unjustified and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine.”

The “unjustified and unprovoked” line has been used numerous times by a chorus of top U.S. officials and allies, quickly becoming a rhetorical mainstay of Biden’s maximum pressure campaign against the Kremlin.

This messaging conflates two important, yet fundamentally different issues. There is little question that Russia’s invasion has wrought a horrific human toll on Ukraine and upended European security in ways that few anticipated prior to February 2022. But it is also not without its context, which includes a litany of grievances that — however unjustified from the perspective of the West — constitute what the Kremlin saw as sufficient provocation to initiate the most destructive war in Europe since 1945.

An explosive New York Times exposé by Adam Entous and Michael Schwirtz sheds light on major developments preceding the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to the report, the Ukrainian government entered into a wide-ranging partnership with the CIA against Russia. This cooperation, which involved the establishment of as many as 12 secret CIA “forward operating bases” along Ukraine’s border with Russia, began not with Russia’s 2022 invasion, but just over 10 years ago.

Within days of the February 2014 Euromaidan Revolution that culminated with the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych and ushered in a firmly pro-Western government, the newly appointed head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, reportedly proposed a “three-way partnership” with the CIA and MI6, the UK’s foreign intelligence service. Ukrainian security officials gradually proved their value to the U.S. by feeding the CIA intelligence on Russia, including “secret documents about the Russian Navy,” leading to the establishment of CIA bases in Ukraine to coordinate activities against Russia and various training programs for Ukrainian commandos and other elite units.

A graduate of one such CIA training program, then-Lt. Col. Kyrylo Budanov, went on to become the chief of Ukrainian military intelligence.

Kyiv routinely pushed this relationship’s boundaries, violating the Obama administration’s red lines around lethal operations by carrying out assassinations of high-profile Russian fighters on territory controlled by Russian-aligned separatists. The Kyiv-CIA partnership deepened under the Trump administration, yet again putting the lie to the baseless idea that former President Trump was somehow amenable to Russia’s interests while in office.

As Budanov reportedly put it, “It only strengthened. It grew systematically. The cooperation expanded to additional spheres and became more large-scale.” This cooperation, as painstakingly outlined by the Times, went far beyond helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia in a narrow, technical sense — rather, Ukraine was drawn into a Western coalition for the purpose of waging a broad-based shadow war against Russia.

The New York Times’ exposé offers no shortage of disturbing implications. Ukraine is, needless to say, a sovereign state in charge of determining its own security arrangements. The underlying issue is not whether Ukraine is within its rights to enter into this kind of relationship with the CIA, as it obviously is, nor is it whether the Maidan Revolution put Ukraine on a certain path toward political cooperation with Western entities.

The problem, rather, is one of basic security perceptions. Moscow repeatedly warned — for many years before 2014 — that it was and remains prepared to take drastic action to prevent Ukraine from being used by the West as a forward operating base against Russia. Yet that, as recounted in lurid detail by The New York Times, is precisely what has happened over the past 10 years.

The fact that Ukraine has not just willingly but enthusiastically submitted to this arrangement is immaterial to Russia’s core concerns. Nor can this issue be entirely reduced to NATO membership: Ukraine can play the role of an anti-Russian outpost on NATO’s eastern flank without ever formally joining the alliance, and this, too, is unacceptable to the Kremlin.

Justification is by nature a subjective exercise, but there can be little question that the activities described in this exposé constitute, from the Kremlin’s perspective, a dire provocation and would be seen as such by the United States if the situation were reversed and a rival superpower established such bases in Mexico. This perception is an inseparable part of the military and political context that shaped this war’s outbreak. It can be dismissed as paranoid, but if so it is a paranoia common to all security establishments.

It is unclear what concrete U.S. interests these joint intelligence activities served. They certainly did not facilitate de-escalation between Moscow and Kyiv or promote regional stability, goals ostensibly shared by the Obama and Trump administrations. On the other hand, it is quite easy to see how Kyiv’s deepening relationship with the CIA needlessly fed into Moscow’s worst security fears and precipitated its conclusion — whether justified or not — that it must act decisively in the face of an implacable conflict with the West over Ukraine.

***

There was an interesting analysis by Matt Taibbi on the NYT expose discussed below. Unfortunately, the Taibbi article is behind a paywall. He suggests that this expose, followed by Ukrainian intel chief Budanov’s assessment (contradicting the US establishment) that Alexei Navalny actually died of natural causes from a blood clot in Russia, reflects the fact that both sides know that western support for Ukraine is on the verge of collapse and both sides are beginning the process of bitterly throwing one another under the bus:

“When intelligence sources line up by the hundred to fill newspapers with “secret” details, they’re almost always doing one of two things: spreading disinformation, or “pre-bunking” embarrassing future revelations. The lavishly overwritten “secret untold story” that puts advance spin on ugly leaks has become a popular genre across this century’s many giant intelligence screwups….

“In the case of this new Ukraine story, apart from the self-serving history re-writes (the idea that CIA-Ukraine cooperation started with a cold call on Valentine’s Day, 2014 is high comedy), certain details jump out. Although on the surface the Times depicts a heroic partnership against Russian perfidy, it contains an un-subtle leitmotif about civilized America continually begging Ukrainians to lay off atrocities. As the partnership deepened “after 2016,” the Times reports, Ukrainians “began staging assassinations and other lethal operations, which violated the terms the White House thought the Ukrainians had agreed to.” Americans were “infuriated” and “threatened to cut off support,” but never did. Shocked, shocked!…

“It might be coincidence that a Ukrainian intelligence official [Budanov] described in a New York Times article as a loose cannon who led a “disaster” of a commando raid just jammed three fingers in Washington’s eye in less than a week. Either way, it’s clear there’s anxiety in Washington about fallout from an interruption of the US-Ukraine security project. Especially in an election year, any war of words between the erstwhile allies could get ugly in a heartbeat.”

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/03/mar ... ovocation/

******

Another destroyed Abrams
March 4, 0:10

Image

Another destroyed Abrams. It's already a routine.

Image

Another Abrams-based engineering vehicle was also destroyed.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9003127.html

Google Translator

******

What’s the Truth About Russian ‘Meat Assaults’ Against Ukrainian Forces?

Robert Bridge

March 3, 2024

The spectacle of huge waves of Russian forces – or Ukrainian, for that matter – running across open fields in some kind of mad dash to storm enemy defenses only exists in the imagination of the mainstream media.

Lately, there has been much talk in the Western media about desperate waves of Russian troops hurling themselves recklessly at Ukrainian fortifications, while suffering huge losses. What is the truth?

human wave attack: is an offensive infantry tactic in which an attacker conducts an unprotected frontal assault with densely concentrated infantry formations against the enemy lines, intended to overrun and overwhelm the defenders by engaging in melee combat.

Here are some of the mainstream media armchair generals as they pontificate, hundreds of miles away, on Russia’s military operation in Ukraine:

On January 24, The New York Post (“Moscow’s ‘meat wave’ tactic litters Ukraine battlefield with frozen corpses of Russian troops”) reported that “Russia is using a ‘meat wave’ strategy that sends scores of poorly trained soldiers to die on the front lines against Ukraine to clear a path for the Kremlin’s more valuable elite units — then abandons their frozen corpses on the battlefield.”

The image that the Post article wishes to convey is that the Russian military is some sort of technologically inferior fighting force that must relay on brute force if it hopes to make any battlefield gains. The ultimate goal here is to portray the Russians as cold-blooded barbarians; an effort to dehumanize the Russians as, to quote one twitter user, “zombies, like meat without fear and self-preservation instincts” that leaves its dead and wounded on the battlefield unattended.

Earlier, Business Insider (“Russia is bringing back its bloody ‘human wave’ tactics, throwing poorly trained troops into a massive new assault in eastern Ukraine, White House says”) quoted John Kirby, the spokesperson for the National Security Council, as saying that “the Russian military appears to be using human wave tactics, where they throw masses of poorly trained soldiers right into the battlefield without proper equipment, and… without proper training and preparation.”

Is Kirby projecting here? After all, it has been the Ukrainians who have been sweeping military age males off the street in broad daylight, sending them off to fight on the front lines with very little combat training.

Not to be outdone, on January 24, CNN (“Russia’s relentless ‘meat assaults’ are wearing down outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian forces”) quoted a Ukrainian sniper with the callsign ‘Bess’ who said “Nobody evacuates [the Russian corpses], nobody takes them away,” he said. “It feels like people don’t have a specific task, they just go and die.”

Is there any truth to these allegations? Are the Russians really carrying out zombie-style frontal assaults that are “unprotected, exposed and concentrated” in a desperate effort to overrun Ukrainian positions? How do the facts stand up to this latest batch of mainstream media hype?

Aside from the lack of any video evidence, consider basic military tactics. Only in the case of superior numerical troop strength – for example, as during the Battle of Normandy (June 6 – August 30, 1944) in World War II when the Allied forces launched a successful attack on German positions in northern France with over 2 million troops – would one side commit itself to carrying out massive frontal assaults on enemy positions.

In a recent interview with Germany’s ARD broadcaster, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said the Ukrainian army currently has a force level numbering about 880,000 troops.

“We have 880,000 troops; that’s an army of almost a million,” he said, when asked about the army’s force strength.

Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia had deployed more than 600,000 military personnel in Ukraine.

“The front line is over 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles) long. There are 617,000 people in the conflict zone,” the Russian leader said during his first end-of-year press conference since sending his army into Ukraine in February 2022.

Meanwhile, even the Western mainstream media admits that Russia enjoys a 10-to-1 advantage in the number of artillery supplies, aircraft, drones and armored assault vehicles. With such an overwhelming advantage, why would the Russians need to resort to the desperate tactic of exposing its infantry to “human wave” attacks? If anything, it would be the numerically superior Ukrainian forces – now being systematically crushed by the Russians across the entire field of contact – who would be expected to throw themselves against their enemy in open fields.

The fact is, however, there has never been any video evidence of huge waves of Russian forces – nor Ukrainian, for that matter – running across open fields in some kind of mad dash to storm enemy defenses. Such a spectacle simply does not exist except in the imagination of the mainstream media, which would also have its readers believe that Russian troops in Artyomovsk (known in Ukraine as Bakhmut) were forced to fight with shovels against their opponent, while also being forced to cannibalize components from foreign appliances to facilitate its defense production.

In the words of an old sage: “hogwash.”

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... an-forces/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10769
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:01 pm

The political path to confrontation
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 03/05/2024

Image

The Russian Federation yesterday called the German ambassador for consultations to demand explanations for two main issues: the obstacles that the Russian press is encountering in working in the country and, above all, the leaked conversation last week in which, with complete , members of the Bunderswehr seemed to be preparing the logistics of the delivery of German long-range Taurus missiles with which they had no doubt that Ukraine would attack Crimea. According to Clausewitz's maxim, war is politics by other means, something that is becoming perfectly clear as the different sides participating directly or indirectly in the conflict raise their red lines and subsequently cross them. Not so long ago, Vladimir Putin proclaimed that it was impossible for a war to break out between Russia and Ukraine and Western leaders said they were willing to negotiate security solutions with Russia. But war came and no one in Western Europe or North America wanted to negotiate an agreement to stop NATO's expansion toward Russia's borders. Initially, leaders like Olaf Scholz were reluctant to send lethal material to Ukraine, which earned the German chancellor insults from the then Ukrainian ambassador to the country. Joe Biden described the possibility of sending tanks and planes with American personnel as a third world war. and Macron, who had declared the Atlantic Alliance “brain dead,” negotiated for hours to prevent the Russian invasion and months later proclaimed the need for a resolution that would not humiliate Russia. Even then, several months after the Russian invasion, during the most intense war on the European continent since World War II, certain limits were clear.

The major Western media are filled with headlines proclaiming the need to prepare for the possibility of war and this discourse is used as justification for a policy of increasing military spending and production at the same time that countries begin to be required to return to austerity. On the other side of the trenches that currently serve as a new Iron Curtain, Moscow remembers that a direct confrontation between NATO would lead, practically inevitably, to a nuclear confrontation. This comment, which reappears periodically, can be considered a concrete threat, although it is also the confirmation of something that was clear in the most tense years of Mutual Assured Destruction: the fight between great powers must be political or limited to clear rules. . Soviet and American soldiers confronted each other directly in countries like Korea or Vietnam, relatively distant wars that were not existential for either party, and wars like Afghanistan, for which Washington and its partners mobilized enormous amounts of financing to lead to ruin. absolute destruction to both countries - the Soviet Union and socialist Afghanistan, which ended, as expected, leading to the ruin of Afghanistan as a whole - were proxy wars in which Western countries acted as suppliers, but did not fight directly.

Since March 2022, and with much more intensity since that summer, when heavy equipment began to arrive in Ukraine with which to attack the Russian rear, Western countries have provided unprecedented amounts of financing, weapons and ammunition in a war (proxy ) conventional terrestrial. Although Russian condemnations of deliveries of material such as battle tanks or depleted uranium ammunition have been the norm after the announcements, Moscow has resigned itself to its attempt to destroy this material without aspiring to intercept it before its arrival at the front. While Russia has repeatedly questioned the extent to which the West as a collective is no longer a direct participant in this conflict, the definition of proxy war remains the most appropriate, at least for the moment. Ukraine, which has enthusiastically embraced the idea, presents itself as the army that, in the name of the West and to prevent its children from having to fight in the future, fights a battle against authoritarianism and dictatorship to defend liberal democracy. This requires weapons, ammunition, financing, political and diplomatic support and the favor of the press, which is expected not to even consider the possibility that Ukraine will not obtain complete victory against Moscow's troops that have two years (actually practically ten) promising.

In the political and verbal escalation of the last week, two aspects have raised the tension to the point of calling into question the future of the proxy war. In their emphasis on showing that the European Union - and, by extension, the West - will not abandon Ukraine to its fate as it did with the Afghan state created on the ruins of the 2001 intervention, French politicians and the German military have given rein unleashes creativity and, intentionally in the first case and through a more than timely leak of intelligence in the second, they have allowed the audience to hear plans that go far beyond the current status quo .

Macron's words about not ruling out the possibility of a presence of Western troops in Ukraine caused the anger of his partners even though the strategic ambiguity that the French president said he used may have been intended only as a warning. However, as the former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder wrote yesterday in Politico, a medium close to the Democratic current, “Weeks before, the Chief of the French Defense Staff, General Thierry Burkhard, had written to the half of its NATO colleagues, exploring the possibility of a coalition of volunteers to take on certain tasks in Ukraine – including providing defensive systems, training forces in the country, launching cyber operations and offering aid in the demining.” According to Daalder, France received a resounding no from its allies. The enthusiasm shown these days by Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, three demographically and economically insignificant countries, but which, due to their proximity to the most radical positions, sometimes acquire an apparent status as spokesperson for countries concerned about a possible Russian invasion of NATO , shows that the rejection is by no means unanimous.

Macron's words were followed by the German reaction led by an apparently alone man, Olaf Scholz, who, faced with the criteria of the opposition and possibly his Green partners in the executive and even his own Minister of Defense, refuses to comply with The most repeated request: the sending of cruise missiles with which to take the war to Russia . If the idea of ​​Russian missiles attacking military bases and infrastructure in Russia did not already carry sufficient historical weight, the chancellor's accusation that the sending of Western missiles implies the presence of troops from those countries in direct attack work elevated the issue to a Upper level. The fact that Scholz described the presence of German soldiers firing missiles in Ukraine as “crossing the threshold of belligerence” also has a double consequence. With his words, the German Chancellor revealed, perhaps applying Macron's strategic ambiguity , the presence of British and French troops doing the same, from which it can be understood that France and the United Kingdom could have already crossed that threshold. The publication that same week, and clearly intended to coincide with the controversy, of a dialogue in which the Luftwaffe lieutenant colonel commented on the logistics of shipping Taurus missiles may lead to the same conclusion. German aviation officials were planning how to shorten delivery times and the means for a constant, most effective supply of material that would imply, according to the Government leader, the presence of German soldiers on the ground, firing missiles. against Russia and crossing the line between proxy war and the shadow of direct confrontation.

With no other defense than accusing Russia of “hybrid war,” Minister Pistorius, Germany's most popular politician and possible candidate to succeed the cornered Scholz, has cried out against “Russian disinformation.” No one in the German government has tried to deny the veracity of the conversation or call into question the identities of the participants. “It is a hybrid attack of disinformation: it is about division, it is about undermining our unity,” said the annoyed Pistorius, unable to deny the veracity of the conversation or to question the actions of soldiers who plan actions that contradict the current line of his Government. At least for the moment.

Even sadder is the response of the United Kingdom, which simply reacted against Germany at the moment when Scholz said out loud what was already known without saying it. “Tobias Elwood, former deputy defense minister, stated that the leak has been a source of embarrassment for Berlin, although he told the BBC that Russia probably knew of the British presence taking into account the intensity of the espionage work,” wrote yesterday The Guardian in relation to the controversy over the publication of the conversation of the Bunderwehr officers. Everything was known by the parties involved, it simply should not be made known to the public, not precisely to avoid danger, but to protect the Government. In Germany, with a larger population reluctant to risk the proxy war ceasing to be so, the only possible protection is that of memory, the same one that has catapulted the Berlin Government to be one of the main defenders of Israel in its current war against Gaza. The same Luftwaffe chief who assumes that Ukraine will try to demolish the Kerch bridge with Taurus missiles wanted to travel to Israel to show his support for the Israeli Defense Forces. The image of him donating blood for the wounded was justified as representing Germany remembering his crimes. The Holocaust, the genocide of the Jewish people, was, without a doubt, the greatest crime of World War II, but it was not the only one. The cruelty of Hitler's Germany also saw its splendor against the Soviet people and it was there that its defeat took shape.

The weight of history has changed with the war in Ukraine and German restraint to prevent a harsher war did not go beyond the first weeks of pressure against Scholz. Nor are the red lines of the Cold War, with the limits and dangers always clear, in force. But the risks are, which gradually increase with each step towards the normalization of braking. Much of it is, for now, a way of justifying the extra cost that the increase in military spending will mean for national budgets, for which a clear enemy is needed and whose threat must be credible. However, at the distance of the trenches, ones for which no Western European army is prepared, the danger increases exponentially and the possibilities of blowing up something that cannot be contained grow with each political step towards confrontation.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/03/05/el-ca ... rontacion/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Forwarded from
Voenkor Kitten
Military expert Boris Rozhin on the main points during the Special Military Operation of the Russian Federation on the territory of the former Ukraine per day by 22.37 Moscow time on March 4, 2024, especially for the Voenkor Kotenok channel : 1.

Rabotino
.
Fighting continues in the area of ​​the settlement. Rabotino and to the west of the settlement. Verbovoe. The enemy has actively brought operational reserves into action and continues to try to stabilize the situation after losing positions in the southern part of the salient.
The RF Armed Forces have not yet been able to ensure reliable consolidation in the village. Rabotino, so now the emphasis has shifted to positions east and west of Rabotino.

2.
Vremevsky ledge.
The activity of the Russian Armed Forces remains active in the north of the village. Priyutnoye in the area of ​​the village Staromayorskoye and Novodonetskoye.

3.
Ugledar.
The Russian Armed Forces control slightly less than half of the village.
Fights for the village Novomikhailovka continues.
After these battles are completed, we can expect a further advance in the direction of the Konstantinovskoye-Ugledar highway.

4.
Marinka.
Assault operations continue in the village. Georgievka (small progress) and the assault on Krasnogorovka. There are still battles going on in the southern outskirts.
The enemy, using existing reserves, is actively counterattacking, trying to drive our attack aircraft out of the city.

5.
Avdeevka.
Fighting continues for the Berdychi-Orlovka-Tonenkoye line.
N.p. Berdychi behind the enemy, n.p. Orlovka for the most part is behind us, settlement. Thin - more than half is behind us, part is a gray zone, settlement. Pervomayskoe - approximately half control.
The enemy brought its main reserves into battle to stabilize the situation, hence the increase in losses of Western equipment.

6.
Artemovsk.
The assault on the village continues. Red. About half of the village is behind us.
In the village In Bogdanovka, the situation has not changed - there are battles for the heights.
There is progress in the village on the Seversky ledge. Belogorovka is in our favor.

7.
Krasnolimansk direction.
The Russian Armed Forces approached the outskirts of the village of Terny.
The position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces here has been steadily deteriorating in recent weeks.
In the near future, fighting may begin for the village itself.

8.
Svatovo-Kupyansk.
Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​the settlement. Tabaevka, Sinkovka, Petropavlovka.
So far, no major changes.

***

🔞The dog died protecting his comrades from a kamikaze drone. Soldier Eric on the front line (Kherson direction) got a dog. She nailed it and became a family member. They called the dog “Dumby.” He was hectic, but loyal and fearless. Noticing that the fighters were running away from kamikaze drones, he clearly regarded this as a threat to his close comrades. And the next time, when another Ukrainian fpv flew into the position, people began to run away and hide, and he, “The Goonie,” rushed to defend his own: he rushed at the drone, grabbed it with his teeth... And died, not allowing the position to be attacked.. Tragic footage shows the last minutes of the life of “The Goonie” (not worth watching for the faint of heart). Fighter Eric lost his friend and became even more bitter towards the enemy. Now he considers it necessary to destroy the enemy with ammunition drops signed in honor of the hero dog. During the Great Patriotic War, animals showed an example of service worthy of admiration, probably without realizing it, but they performed real feats. There is even a practice in the world of awarding animals for such merits with medals and orders. For example, the dog Dzhulbars, who served in the 14th assault engineer brigade (1944 - 1945) and was able to help clear 7.5 thousand mines. Awarded the medal "For Military Merit". Was injured. And that’s why I couldn’t walk in the Victory Parade on Red Square. But upon learning of this, Stalin ordered the dog to be carried in his arms on his overcoat. I think that the faithful “Dumb”, who died in the Northern Military District, is worthy of at least our fond memory of him. Tell your friends about this feat.
@zimenkin
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

(Call me sentimental, but let's see a cat do that.)

Google Translator

******

Fall-out from the Bundeswehr scandal

The silence among Western media that initially followed the Russian release of tapes of the Bundeswehr plotters seeking to bomb the Kerch bridge was broken after a couple of days when Chancellor Scholz acknowledged the authenticity of the tapes and transcript. He told reporters that the incident was very serious and will now be investigated on an urgent basis.

But what exactly are the Germans going to investigate? The breach of secret communications or the crime that the German government’s own officials were plotting? I would call it a ‘crime against humanity’ in the sense that their intended actions could lead to a world war and the end of civilization on earth.

Regrettably, from all appearances, it is only the first question that interests Herr Scholz, his associates in the coalition government and the Opposition, the Christian Democratic Union. That is what we find in The Financial Times online today in their article “Scholz promises inquiry after Russia publishes tapped military discussions.” There is great consternation that the Russians have accessed what should have been maximally secure communications lines. In its coverage today, Le Monde tells a similar story.

****

I have received a couple of comments from readers of these pages, objecting that there will be no consequences if the German plan to bomb the Kerch (Crimea) bridge were to be implemented because Putin is pusillanimous and has repeatedly allowed Russia’s red lines to be breached. Indeed, the bridge was already severely damaged in 2022 without a Russian escalatory response.

But whatever the degree of Putin’s tolerance of NATO aggression for the sake of preventing all-out war up till now, we are clearly at a turning point. In his State of the Nation speech, Putin bluntly threatened to hit back and use Russian missiles to strike targets in countries which enable attacks on Russia. Note: he did not say ‘nuclear,’ and there is no reason why he should. Russian hypersonic missiles are as destructive with conventional warheads as normal missiles would be carrying tactical nuclear warheads. That there can be no back-tracking from this threat was made clear three days later when the Russians released the transcript of the Bundeswehr plotters.

Just like other powers, as a rule Russia does not reveal its intelligence capabilities. The release of the transcripts was extraordinary. For that reason, it is safe to say that President Putin in his speech was sending a clear message to Washington, Berlin and Brussels that there can no longer be hiding behind the skirt of proxy war and legalisms, that they will pay the price for any attack on Russia which nominally is made by Ukraine using Western long-range weapons. Since the Bundeswehr officers noted how Britain is deeply involved in both supplying and guiding the use of its Storm Shadow missiles in Ukraine, London is also now on notice that ‘there will be consequences,’ as the Americans say.

In short, the worm has turned.

Let us hope that our ideologically blinded European leaders are not also deaf, that they have heard and will heed this clear warning of devastation and death to come if they persist in escalatory policies.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/03/03/ ... r-scandal/

******

THE GOOD GERMANS ARE BLOWING SMOKE

Image

by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

There is a fraction of the Germans who, when speaking or writing in public, consider themselves the good Germans. Good Germans are to Germany as propaganda is to truth – negligibly fractional; sometimes truth-telling; always irrelevant to the outcome of the wars which Germany wages.

The political comprehension of the Germans — to adapt Mao Zedong’s axiom that political power comes out of the barrel of a gun — only comes out of the barrel of a Russian gun. The good Germans define themselves publicly by wishing this weren’t true because they realise there’s nothing they can do to stop the rest of their countrymen from throwing themselves at Russian guns until there are no more of them, the good Germans among them.

One of these wishfully good Germans is called Florian Roetzer, who founded the widely read internet publication Telepolis in 1996, and retired to write elsewhere in 2021. Roetzer has just published his analysis of the transcript of last month’s teleconference at which the chief of the German Air Force, Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz, discussed with three subordinates a plan of attack on Russian civil and military targets with the German Taurus KEPD 350E cruise missile; conceal this German operation behind British, French, and Ukrainian forces and German commercial companies; accelerate the missile deliveries; and present the plan for approval by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Gerhartz is not only waging personal war against Russia, as he explained on the telephone two weeks ago, on February 19. Last November he declared personal war in alliance with the Israel Air Force in implementing the genocide of Gaza.

The Gerhartz transcript, translated from German, can be read here. https://vk-com.translate.goog/@m_s_simo ... r_pto=wapp

In Roetzer’s new analysis, published on March 2 in Overton magazine, the problem is not (in Roetzer’s mind) that Gerhartz and the Bundeswehr are losing their war on the Ukrainian battlefield, or that they are aiming to provoke Russian counterattack against German targets outside that battlefield.

“The fact that Russia was able to eavesdrop on the conversations of the German officers…is a major problem for the Bundeswehr, also in relation to its partners, who may no longer trust it.”

“The bigger [sic] problem, however, has been Putin’s for quite some time, after one red line after another has been crossed by the NATO countries, without Russia really reacting to it, apart from warnings…But so far, Putin has accepted any military support for Ukraine. But if it is now becoming more and more public knowledge that NATO countries are directly supporting Ukraine with target data and in general in attacks with Western missiles and cruise missiles through the participation of soldiers in civilian and intelligence officers, and thus become parties to war, then Putin, who propagates that Russia is defending itself in Ukraine, has the problem of showing weakness and only bluffing, if no action is taken against it.”

“It is obvious” – according to Roetzer – “that Russia cannot compete against a NATO weakened by the Ukraine war and therefore avoids a direct conflict. But if the attacks on Russia continue to increase and Western weapons are openly used, Putin will lose support in Russia if there is no military response…With the publication of the wiretapped conversation of the German officers, the Russian leadership may have harmed itself – if only because the Bundeswehr must now try to close the security gap. It is possible that [state media director Margarita] Simonyan has gone too far here. The question is whether the publication was coordinated with the Kremlin.”

That Germany is at war with Russia has been understood in Moscow for a long time. That there are good Germans like Roetzer who would like it to be otherwise for moral, legal, German national, or personal reasons is also well-known. Some of these good Germans have even served as German generals.

What the Navalny Novichok episode of the autumn of 2020 revealed, followed by the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022; and now last month’s teleconference conducted by Gerhartz – what all three episodes reveal is not how the Germans are understood in Moscow, but rather how the good Germans react when confronted with the war they are powerless to deter or stop their countrymen from waging.

The impotence of the German opposition to this war is also well understood in Moscow. What remains is for the Kremlin and General Staff to decide to teach the Germans the only lesson by the only method they understand. That is the lesson the Germans have been failing to learn for seventy-nine years next month — since April 30, 1945, when Adolf Hitler shot himself before he could be captured by the Red Army waiting outside his bunker in Berlin.

Image
Left: “Who is most harmed by the wiretapped conversation of German Air Force officers about Taurus” by Florian Roetzer. How Roetzer determined that the leak of the conversation was by Russian wiretapping, he doesn’t say. Right: Florian Roetzer.

Overton is a secretive German publication based in Frankfurt; called by an English revolutionary name, the magazine reveals nothing about its sources of money, the names of its directorate, or its location — except to say on the home page of its website that it’s “a voice against debate constriction and moralism. It questions the general narratives and is decidedly not an ideological mouthpiece or organ of pronouncement, but feels committed to the Enlightenment.”

The context of the Gerhartz teleconference of February 19, 2024, is the ambition of the newly established Bundeswehr Space Command, headed by Major General Michael Traut, who inaugurated the command’s new headquarters in April 2023. Traut is one rank below Gerhartz but reports independently; two of the officers who participated in the teleconference, Fenske and Frostedte, report to Traut; they rank below Brigadier General Frank Graefe, deputy chief of the Air Force staff for operations, the fourth participant in the conference call. Neither Roetzer nor any other German reporter has identified the full names of Fenske and Frostedte, their units, ranks, and operational responsibilities.

Image
Left: On April 3, 2023, General Traut opened his command headquarters with cartoon stormtroopers to simulate the Russian enemy. Right: Traut.

From the published recording, it appears Fenske and Frostedte have been reporting to Graefe on the German Air Force’s use of satellite and other means for Russian targeting (“maximum accuracy of up to three meters”); delivery of target data to missile launch operations; training of Ukrainian operators; and fittings for the aircraft the German Air Force plans for launching the Taurus missiles against the Russian targets; on the tape Gerhartz says “no matter whether it is a Sukhoi or F-16.”

The German officers don’t mention the range of the Taurus missiles they are planning to use in their operations.

The German Air Force base at Büchel, which stores nuclear bombs and warheads of the US Air Force, is mentioned in the conversation as the operational centre for the plan of attack, “subject to the creation of a secure connection with Ukraine.” F-16s operate from Büchel and, 70 kilometres away, from the Spangdahlem Air Base.

Image
Buchel Air Base in western Germany. According to Fenske, the base may provide target data and other technical support for the operation against Russian targets. Gerhartz agreed, but added camouflage: “Politicians may be concerned about the direct, closed connection between Büchel and Ukraine, which could become direct participation in the Ukrainian conflict. But in this case, we can say that the exchange of information will take place through MBDA [MBDA Deutschland GmbH is the German missile systems company which produces Taurus], and we will send one or two of our specialists to Schrobenhausen [MBDA’s headquarters]. Of course, this is a trick, but from a political point of view it may look different. If information is exchanged through the manufacturer, then this is not associated with us.”

The audio tape is of German soldiers discussing air operations against Russia from a nuclear-armed airbase. The frankness of their war objectives against Russia, and of their attempts to camouflage their “tricks”, as Gerhartz calls them, for German political and public purposes is not what is “new” in this disclosure. Rather, what is “new” is the context of this teleconference among all the others happening in parallel – this is the certainty that when German army officers and German naval officers discuss operations at the general staff level before briefing Defense Minister Pistorius, they are just as committed to attacking Russia as Gerhartz and his airmen.

All these Germans are at war with Russia. There is no reason for their counterparts on the Russian General Staff to interpret what Gerhartz said in any other way. The identification of Büchel and F-16s in the discussion must (repeat must) trigger the Russian assessment that the Germans are capable, with US, British and French prompting, of launching F-16s with nuclear warheads.

The nuclear warhead capability of the Taurus missile is not news in Germany.

Also, the Russians already understand that if an F-16 takes off for a Russian attack operation, it will be “burned”, to use the term President Putin used in his warning of June 26, 2023. “The F-16 will also burn, there is no doubt. But if they are located at air bases outside Ukraine, and used in combat operations, we will have to look at how to hit and where to hit those means that are used in combat operations against us. This is a serious danger of NATO’s further involvement in this armed conflict.” Putin meant to include Büchel and Spangdahlem.

Image
Source: https://www.bitchute.com/video/JjxHCw5PP2s9/

In October 2023, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council, added to the Russian counter-targeting for the Taurus. “Ostensibly, this is in accordance with international law. Well, in that case, strikes on German factories where these missiles are made will also be in full compliance with international law”, Medvedev said.

Just two German generals from the retirement list, Brigadier General Erich Vad and Major General Harald Kujat, have publicly declared themselves against German warfighting against Russia. Florian Roetzer is not so categorical or clear.

Roetzer likes to think of himself as a good German. In that guise, he used to publish translations into German of reports on Russian subjects from the Dances with Bears website. That is, until he began to edit words, phrases, and findings whose veracity he did not challenge, but whose political implications in the German context became threatening for himself.

At one point, Roetzer disputed my reports of Russian civilian and military evidence of the presence of NATO officers in the Azovstal bunkers during the Battle of Mariupol in May 2022. He told me: “Whether it is true about the general or other foreign officers should soon become clear. I do believe that there is something to it, but I am still not sure.”

I replied: “if you applied this ‘sure’ standard you have already applied to censor me to your other contributors, you would have nothing to publish.” “I didn’t censor you,” Roetzer said,” I just added probably.” I said that was cowardice. “Why cowardice,” Roetzer answered, “when you say you think something is possible but don’t know it? I find it more honest than claiming to know something that you find credible, but which is based on hearsay.”

When Roetzer continued to apply his “hearsay” rule and refused to stop the censorship, his permission to republish was cancelled and he was requested to remove everything he had published with my byline.

Roetzer’s application of this hearsay rule to what he thinks he has heard the German generals say last month, and what he thinks, or he has overheard, is the “bigger problem” for President Putin and the Russian General Staff are now on open display. Read Roetzer’s piece in full here.

“The contents of the wiretapped conversation,” Roetzer has concluded, “actually contain nothing new. Ultimately, it could be difficult for Putin.” Roetzer has no evidence the conversation was wiretapped by the Russians. He has no evidence of how the details have been interpreted on the Russian side; his claims that “Putin has accepted any [NATO] military support for Ukraine” and that “Russia cannot compete against a NATO weakened by the Ukraine war” are false.

Since this is how good Germans think and express themselves, General Gerhartz has every reason for the confidence he expressed in his operational plans. “Of course, this is a trick,” he told his subordinates, “but from a political point of view it may look different. If information is exchanged through the manufacturer, then this is not associated with us.”

Of course, they weren’t fooled. Only the good Germans are fooled; in this war they are fooling themselves.

NOTE: the lead image is of a German Leopard 2A6 burning internally after being hit by Russian fire near Avdeyevka in November 2023.

https://johnhelmer.net/the-good-germans ... more-89498

******

Why’d The Wall Street Journal Suddenly Share The Terms Of Spring 2022’s Draft Peace Treaty?

Image

ANDREW KORYBKO
MAR 4, 2024

It's debatable which side this outlet really supports since one can argue that dishonestly describing the details as “punishing” favors those who want another “forever war” while reporting on their overly generous substance is tacitly intended to give an edge to those who want to resume peace talks.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) claimed to have viewed the 17-page draft Russian-Ukrainian peace treaty from spring 2022 that was sabotaged by former British Prime Minister Johnson and which President Putin waved around while speaking with African leaders last summer. They dishonestly described the terms as “punishing” even though they can objectively be described as overly generous considering the previously unthinkable compromises that Moscow was willing to make at the time.

Ukraine would have restored its constitutional neutrality and the Russian language’s status, limited its armed forces, agreed not to use foreign arms, and recognized Russian influence in Crimea in exchange for the UNSC guaranteeing its security. Donbass’ status would be resolved via talks between their leaders, with the innuendo being that it might be reincorporated into Ukraine per the Minsk Accords, while it’s implied that Russia would have withdrawn from the rest of Ukraine’s pre-2022 borders.

Had these terms been accepted, then not only would Ukraine have averted destruction and the depopulation that came with it, but this former Soviet Republic could have then served as a bridge between China and the EU (which it would be allowed to join) exactly as Russia always envisaged. Even if Russian-NATO talks didn’t resume afterwards, their security dilemma that was exacerbated by the bloc’s clandestine expansion into Ukraine would have been much better managed to everyone’s benefit.

The reason why this never happened was because the West believed its own propaganda that Russia could be dealt a strategic defeat through economic sanctions and proxy warfare, both policies of which the New York Times admitted had failed by January 2023 and September of that year respectively. The conflict continued to drag on till today despite the failure of last summer’s counteroffensive because the West can’t admit that Russia was the one that ended up strategically defeating its opponent instead.

The opportunity cost of perpetuating this proxy war is that the West ran through all of its stockpiles, exposed the weakness of its military-industrial complex, and is now unable to adapt as flexibly as before to any major contingences in the Asia-Pacific like those that they expect might one day involve China. Clinging to false hopes of victory over Russia at all costs is also increasingly dangerous due to the chances that a potential NATO intervention in Ukraine could lead to World War III by miscalculation.

It's amidst the growing awareness of these consequences that the WSJ reported on the entirety of spring 2022’s draft Russian-Ukrainian peace treaty, albeit while dishonestly describing the terms as “punishing” instead of overly generous as they objectively are. Their angle is disadvantageous to freezing this conflict like former Republican presidential candidate Ramaswamy, former NATO Supreme Commander Admiral Stavridis, and Senator Vance earlier proposed, but the substance is an altogether different story.

These details prove that President Putin was willing to make previously unthinkable compromises in order to obtain his strategic goals of restoring Ukrainian neutrality, denazifying it (with the restoration of the Russian language’s status playing the key role here), and demilitarizing that country. Donbass would likely be reincorporated into Ukraine, prior to which its residents could obtain Russian citizenship to relocate there if they wanted, and Russia would withdraw from everywhere except for Crimea.

Those territorial compromises are no longer in the cards after Donbass, Kherson, and Zaporozhye voted to join Russia in September 2022, which is why Kremlin spokesman Peskov just described the reported details about that spring’s draft Russian-Ukrainian peace treaty as outdated. Nevertheless, it’s still possible in theory for Russia to compromise on asserting its writ over the entirety of its new regions’ borders if their regional assembles voted to change them with parliamentary and presidential approval.

The Line of Contact (LOC) could therefore become the international frontier if the Constitutional Court rules that this doesn’t violate the 2020 constitutional amendment against surrendering Russian territory on the basis that Moscow hadn’t asserted any writ over those potentially “ceded” parts of its lands. President Putin has repeatedly signaled that he’s willing to compromise on a political solution if Russia’s security interests are met, most recently during his interview with Tucker, so this scenario is possible.

The problem is that Ukraine legally forbade the resumption of peace talks with Russia, thus requiring the West to coerce it into repealing that legislation, which could happen if domestic pressure over Zelensky’s illegitimacy after his term ends on May 20 leads to him forming a “national unity government”. An expert from the powerful Atlantic Council think tank proposed this scenario in an article for Politico last winter, and it could represent a “face-saving” way to move everything forward if the political will exists.

The West knows that the only way to stop Russia from steamrolling through Ukraine in the event that it achieves a breakthrough across the LOC sometime this year is to risk World War III by miscalculation through a conventional NATO intervention aimed at drawing a red line as far east as possible. This sequence of events might be preemptively averted, however, by implementing the abovementioned proposal in order to freeze the conflict along the LOC and then turn that frontier into the new border.

To be absolutely clear so that nobody misunderstands what’s been written in this analysis, Lavrov confirmed as recently as Saturday that Russia hasn’t received any serious proposals for talks with Kiev, so it seems like the West’s ruling liberal-globalist elite isn’t yet comfortable with this end game. It’s also true that the way in which the WSJ dishonestly described the draft Russian-Ukrainian peace treaty’s overly generous terms as “punishing” could harden some policymakers’ resistance in this respect.

Even so, the actual details of those terms could convince some on-the-fence policymakers that President Putin is indeed willing to make previously unthinkable compromises, thus potentially increasing the number of them who’d support the scenario of freezing the conflict along the LOC. The WSJ’s report is therefore a double-edged sword for both camps since it works for and against each of their interests as explained, but the timing is no coincidence since it’s meant to shake up the balance between them.

It's debatable which side this outlet really supports since one can argue that dishonestly describing the details as “punishing” favors those who want another “forever war” while reporting on their overly generous substance is tacitly intended to give an edge to those who want to resume peace talks. The impact of their report will take some time to see, but the point is that it might make a difference at this pivotal moment in the proxy war, with it remaining to be seen whether it’d be for better or for worse.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/whyd-the ... l-suddenly

*****

Secrets and Lies. NATO’s Role in Ukraine Is as Sleazy as the EU’s

Martin Jay

March 4, 2024

Western elites are no longer bothering to even cover up the fact that the war in Ukraine has, in reality, very little to do with Ukraine.

Did Jens Stoltenberg really say that he had recently given “permission” to Ukraine to use F-16 fighter jets there in the war against Russia? If so, we can add it to the list of bumbling, buffoonish Freudian slips that he has chalked up himself while in office. But it does at least give us a glimpse of how western elites are no longer bothering to even cover up the fact that the war in Ukraine has, in reality, very little to do with Ukraine but rather is a much bigger war fought by the West against Russia.

Yet the whole issue about F-16s in Ukraine will be shrouded in lies, doublespeak and fake news. The real story of these outdated fighter jets from the Netherlands – some might call a bribe to Biden to secure the Dutch prime minister as next NATO boss – will probably never be known. Journalists who even want to ask who will really fly these planes – Ukrainians or U.S. pilots – will never get a straight answer but be fobbed off with the normal NATO ‘secrets and lies’ which are what we have all come to understand is the normal modus operandi for this so-called defence organisation. Timing is critical. Does Ukraine have the 6 months minimum time that Ukrainian pilots will need just to fly them, following intensive training? It’s a good bet that we will see them operational by the end of the summer with contracted, retired U.S. air force pilots flying them though – probably not in dogfight scenarios as they are no match for the newer Su-35s which Russia has – used in air to ground attacks. Of course, such a shift in strategy will lead Russia to target Ukrainian airfields, which some analysts are reporting is already happening but in reality, like so many decisions taken by NATO, this latest is just the latest in a long line of miscalculations. These 20-year old planes are going to be a real prize for Russia to shoot out of the skies like ducks on a Sunday afternoon. Pity the pilots who will be in their cockpits as they are on a suicide mission.

The truth though will be very hard to get to with the F-16s. NATO will have already its fake news ready for the suppliant journalists ready to oblige.

It’s a similar story with a recent statement by Zelensky himself who claimed that something like 30,000 Ukrainians so far had died in battle. Did he forget a zero there reading from his notes? Did too much cocaine affect his vision? Was it a joke?

No, it was no joke. Just more fake news dutifully processed by corrupt western media who don’t have journalists among them even capable of questioning the statement.

However, the reason why the numbers of dead Ukrainian soldiers is such a polemic is interesting. You might be forgiven for thinking that if the real figure of at least 300,000 dead Ukrainians were to be admitted, that this would have a political consequence for Zelensky himself. And this would be true within a democratic context. But Zelensky has shut down all media that doesn’t replicate his propaganda, eliminated all opposition parties so it’s hardly likely anyone is going to question this ludicrous figure of 30,000 or so. In reality there is a much more salacious, if not mercurial reason why he needs to stick to this work of fiction: graft.

What is not at all reported, even alluded to, is the racket being run by senior army officers close to him who are drawing the salaries of dead soldiers – and how the West turns a blind eye, once again, to this particular scam involving millions of dollars of western aid. Recently the EU agreed to send to Kiev 12.5 billion euros a year in cash for public sector salaries. Given the racket going on over dead soldiers salaries, this makes Brussels complicit in money laundering. Would it be far fetched to assume that senior EU officials are receiving kickbacks, in return? Given Ursula von der Leyen’s murky dealings with Pfizer and the recent news that she is to evade any scrutiny for another 5 years in office, assuming her corrupt friends in the EU support her second term, it becomes clear what the EU and NATO’s objectives are in Ukraine of late: just keep the machine turning over and Zelensky in power. The Ukraine war is not a charitable case, as some western leaders would like you to believe. It is not even about protecting the so-called values of the west, as no one really believes the bullshit that Putin is going to invade other EU countries once his tanks reach Kiev after the country inevitably collapses when the army surrenders or occupies itself with a civil war. Ukraine war is a racket and NATO is part of it, as is the EU elite. No one works for nothing and we should be very suspicious about Boris Johnson turning up in Kiev to lend his support to Zelensky. Is he on the latter’s payroll for PR services? Probably. Will any journalists ask this or file ‘freedom of information’ requests to even clarify who paid for the trip (as anyone who knows Boris, knows he has no cash)? Of course not.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... s-the-eus/

******

The patrol ship "Sergei Kotov" was killed in the battle near Feodosia
March 5, 12:47 p.m

Image

During the night battle near Feodosia, we lost the patrol ship "Sergei Kotov" attacked by a large group of naval drones. According to various sources, there were from 10 to 15 naval drones, which exceeded the defensive capabilities of the ship.
Obviously, the system where ships have to fight off drones only with machine guns in close combat is insufficient. The development of counter-drone measures for the needs of the fleet is proceeding too slowly.

During the attack on the patrol ship "Sergei Kotov", fortunately, there were no casualties. The crew completed their task - they fought against numerous BECs and destroyed several.
After the ship was hit, it fought for survivability to the best of its available resources, but the damage was too serious.
After which the crew abandoned the ship - several sailors were injured, but no one died.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9005947.html

Google Translator

*******

Let Me Remind You...

... a passage from my second book:


This is especially true in the field where the United States self-proclaimed to be the most advanced and powerful force in the world: aerospace. All that was done by dismissing the economic, technological and geopolitical reality which formed in front of the very eyes of the American political class, which simply lacked the required orientation and tools to properly assess an unfolding real revolution in military affairs that the United States was neither ready nor willing to acknowledge—the increasing gap between indigenous, grossly propaganda-inflated exceptionalist military capabilities and the military-technological revolution the U.S. “peers” were undergoing. Russia, in the words of Lt. Colonel Watts, indeed adapted to changing conditions better than the adversary.

This was written five years ago. And then suddenly after 24 months of SMO this:



Considering the fact that Russia is doing it with about 10-15 percent of her available forces and demonstrated an incredible surge capacity of her industry, yes--Russia is doing really well. So, keep in mind Russian MoD's latest update on VSU losses which have been estimated at 444,000. These numbers will grow dramatically the more Russian troops advance into the former 404 territory even without killing more VSU troops, due to uncovering remains of many more KIAs who are often are not evacuated from battlefield, same goes for wounded who are left to die and can only hope for Russians to get to them before it is too late. Ukrainian POWs, many of them surrendering voluntarily, not only report appalling losses, but ask not to include them into lists for POWs exchange. Also, huge number of 404 women now on the front-lines. BTW, VSU "cut" Volga frequencies to prevent VSU from surrender.

Posted by smoothiex12 at 1:30 PM

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/03 ... d-you.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10769
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Mar 06, 2024 12:53 pm

A ten year journey
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 03/06/2024
Original Article: Denis Grigoriuk

Image

We left under the roar of the exits . The Russian mortar worked against the enemy, who did not have time to settle in the new settlements to which he had retreated from Avdeevka. By the third boom, I got used to the sounds and stopped paying attention to them. The outgoing gunshots no longer evoke the same emotions as they did the first time I visited the front. I remembered the first outing with the soldiers in January 2015 and it was not by chance. We circulated through Spartak guided by a militiaman with the nom de guerre Shum [Noise]. He not only boasted of having destroyed a tank, but also of having captured the personnel, who had not been able to carry out the order to storm in the direction of Donetsk. The hole in the fence made by the Ukrainian tank is still there. What had changed significantly is the only local school, I barely recognized it. It no longer looks like an educational institution. Now it is the typical structure of the front, full of shrapnel, direct hits and impossible to reconstruct.

There were also completely new things. The journalists had not had the opportunity to get here. There have been continuous tough battles since the start of the special military operation here, but they have not been seen as close as what has occurred on the southern flank. Almost two years of incessant fighting have turned the area into a wasteland. Everywhere there are craters, minefields, destroyed equipment and unexploded shells. “There was a damaged vehicle here,” said a soldier from the First Slavyansk Brigade with the nom de guerre Kazbek. He was taking us to the recently liberated Avdeevka.

Soldiers evacuated damaged equipment. Mines are frequent, so you have to move knowing the risk. You can step on a mine or anything left on the ground. We find a soldier in a stopped tank. “Are you going to take it out?” Kazbek asked . “Yes, I'm waiting for mine. “We are going to evacuate him,” he responded. From the outside, the tank looked unsalvageable. However, Kazbek is confident that it can be repaired or dismembered for parts. It will be useful in the future. He will continue to do a service.

We drive to a road surrounded by dead trees on both sides. Between the logs you can see the abandoned trenches of the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From here there is a view of Donetsk. The first thing that catches your eye is what was once the main building of the Donetsk airport. From here, you could practically hit it with direct fire. Behind are the mines and silhouettes of the apartment buildings of the Kuibishevsky district. The city center could even be attacked. Seeing the sight, you immediately understand what it means that they had a knife in Donetsk's jugular.

We didn't stay long, we had to move forward. I looked out the window and saw many anti-tank mines. The sappers placed them in piles. “What Ukrainians fear most is technology. All the fields are full of mines. Do you see any? It is impossible to pass there,” Kazbek explained to us as he drove by the famous Cheburashka, the position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the road leading to Avdeevka.

Image

A little further ahead, the air defense unit building appeared. Kazbek told us in detail what that Zenit assault had been like. For a long time, they could not capture him. It was a thorn in the throat. It is full of underground bunkers built in Soviet times prepared for a nuclear attack. The Ukrainian Armed Forces could hide indefinitely and maintain their combat capability. Not even the bombings achieved the desired results. The problem is that the Ukrainian militants were hiding in two-level bunkers, one capsule inside another, Kazbek explained.

The Achilles tendon of the Ukrainian defense was a machine gun operator who rested on his laurels during the First Slavyansk assault. The soldiers were able to gain a strong point in the dacha area near Zenit, thus cutting off the supply route. When the Armed Forces of Ukraine, due to a shortage of ammunition, had to rotate and supply supplies to the troops, they could no longer defend the unit, so they decided to retreat to the city. Behind them, units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation entered Avdeevka. They sped along a road littered with destroyed equipment, toward the famous metal sign at the entrance to the city. The name “Avdeevka” appeared. There had not been time to translate the sign into Ukrainian, although for many years kyiv and the Western press have created the image of Avdiivka as a fiefdom of Ukrainians in Donbass. That's why blue and yellow are on every corner, just like the graffiti against the Russian president and other types of urban art by the Ukrainian military.

I looked out the driver's window and saw the famous church filmed by journalists in the first hours after the capture. It was there with its golden domes. “It's better not to go there, it's dangerous,” Kazbek said.

It hasn't taken more than a few days for the Ukrainian army to recover. Then the drone operators began to activate. It was not difficult for them to reach this place. After ten years, they know the city perfectly. Furthermore, Ukrainian special services monitor Russian reports, so the place was attacked.

Image

Kazbek took us into the city, into the Jimik neighborhood. The city streets were covered in fog. Sunlight streamed through the windows of a partially destroyed nine-story building. Soldiers on motorcycles periodically passed along roads littered with shrapnel, fragments and projectile debris. In general, it cannot be said that Avdeevka is radically different from other cities destroyed by battle. My colleagues and I long ago came to the conclusion that when you've seen one destroyed city, you've seen them all. So there is little point in describing again the destroyed high-rise buildings we saw, those that were once residential flats that later became fortifications of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Kazbek parked the Lada Niva next to one of the apartment buildings. It seemed one of the least damaged in the area. A four-story brick block burned next to him. As a result, part of Avdeevka was covered in smoke despite the rays of the March sun. I rushed to the origin of the black clouds. I hesitated a bit while filming the remains of the nine-story building. The soldiers had to remind me that you can't stay in one place for too long. “I understand that you will never have enough material, but we have to go,” Kazbek said with some condescension. “Is there a lot of civilian population in the city?” I asked taking advantage of the opportunity. "Enough".

I saw two people sitting at the entrance of the building. I saw the same thing everywhere in Mariupol in the spring of 2022, when the battle was still in the active phase. In the Avdeevka area that I visited, the civilian population did not leave the basements. At least at the time of my visit. The reason became known almost immediately. I was filming the remains of the hospital. When I turned to the three soldiers who were waiting until I finished my work, Kazbek 's face had completely changed. He was staring insistently at something behind me. “Projectile!” he exclaimed and crouched slightly. The noise in the air moved in the direction of the place from which we had arrived at Avdeevka. A second later, three explosions occurred. They exploded loudly, but not close. “Let's go,” the soldier ordered. We got into the Niva, loaded everything and left. He kept asking questions along the way. Kazbek answered politely, although his mind was clearly elsewhere: on the battle for the towns near Avdeevka.

“Is it true that the Ukrainian Armed Forces mine the bodies of their dead with grenades as they retreat?” I asked.

“It happens, but not often. To do this, you need an expert skydiver. But they are recruits. You may not have been paying attention to me, but I told you they were leaving in a hurry. We caught them red-handed. So they didn't have time to do anything. Only an expert soldier could pull the ring, place it under the body and retreat quickly.”

As Kazbek explained to me , the arrival of Azov did not help the Ukrainian Armed Forces defend Avdeevka either. They were sent there too late, they could no longer help in any way.

A few minutes later, we were driving again through the streets of Spartak, which had disappeared into the darkness. Kazbek spoke of the battles for Opitnoe, which has been taken several times, but many times had to be retreated. And I thought of something else. It takes half an hour to get by car from Donetsk to Avdeevka. This path has cost the lives of many soldiers, including Poeta , who died on February 12, 2024 during the assault on Avdeevka. A thirty-minute journey that has cost ten years of bloody battle. An unbearable ten years.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/03/06/un-vi ... diez-anos/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
About the attack on the patrol ship "Sergei Kotov" - analysis @rybar

Since all the emotions and feelings about the next attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces with BECs and the loss of the patrol ship " Sergei Kotov " have subsided, we would like to talk about what happened at night in more detail.

And the purpose of this analysis is not to reproach the Black Sea Fleet.

The goal is to show the enemy’s tactics and what you should pay attention to in order to prevent this from happening in the future, and also to talk about the problems of our fleet using the example of Project 22160 ships .

🔻Progress of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attack:

After midnight, the patrol ship "Sergey Kotov", which was on combat duty south of the Kerch Strait , was attacked by five unmanned boats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (they were preparing for the attack, the BECs were drifting in the central part of the Black Sea ).

Why did all five BECs hit the ship? The answer, alas, lies in the problems of the Project 22160 ship itself (we in no way want to shift the focus from the Black Sea Fleet, but still).

The ships are simply not equipped with the necessary means of protection: there is no air defense or anti-submarine defense. Only two machine guns are catastrophically insufficient for hitting group targets.

After the hit, a tugboat and a patrol boat went to the aid of the crew, and a Rosguard Mi-8 helicopter flew to the site of the attack , which destroyed the sixth unmanned boat to the west, the Sergei Kotov.

By 3 o'clock at night, most of the crew was evacuated to tugboats ( three in total were involved ), and it was decided to drag the ship to the port. However, the late-started struggle for survivability due to waiting for orders from the command (here is the direct fault of the Black Fleet’s lack of flexibility) essentially decided the outcome.

By morning, "Sergei Kotov" began to sink southeast of Cape Takil . Three more BECs appeared south of the Crimean Bridge , which were destroyed by the Mi-8 helicopter thanks to the illumination of searchlights from the tugs. Apparently, the bridge was the target of the attack. Several important points emerge from the entire attack: Project 22160 ships are not equipped to combat modern threats. Relatively cheap BECs disable expensive ships. This is despite the fact that they are also defenseless against UAVs due to the lack of air defense. At the same time, for some reason unknown to us, the crews of the tugboat with a searchlight and the Mi-8 helicopter of the Russian Guard were able to cope with the BECs on their own . The bureaucratic red tape that arose at the time of the attack caused a rather late start to the struggle for the survivability of the ship. He could have been saved if everything had started in a timely manner. So far, unfortunately , we are forced to admit that the entire fleet does not have the practice of correcting its own mistakes - the same problems arise systematically . Going out on patrol alone without the necessary equipment and surveillance means at night.... nothing has changed yet

Image

But the tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have undergone changes: now they attack at night in groups of up to 10 drones , and not one or two BECs (apparently, they first accumulate drones and then hit) . In the absence of the necessary countermeasures and poor visibility, this is quite logical, which results in lost ships every time.

***

Colonelcassad
⚡️ Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of March 5, 2024)

- the Russian Armed Forces are conducting active combat operations in the Donetsk direction and have occupied more advantageous positions along the front line;

— The Russian Armed Forces improved the tactical situation in the Kupyansk direction within 24 hours;

— The Russian Armed Forces destroyed the British Stormer air defense system of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction;

— Russian air defense shot down a MiG-29 of the Ukrainian Air Force in the Lyubomirovka area of ​​the Nikolaev region;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 500 military personnel in the Avdeevka direction in one day;

— Over the past 24 hours, the Russian Armed Forces repelled five attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of ​​the village of Sinkovka, Kharkov region;

— The “Center” group of the Russian Armed Forces continued to occupy more advantageous lines and positions in the Avdeevka direction;

— Russian air defense intercepted four HIMARS missiles in one day;

— The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk direction per day amounted to up to 300 military personnel, 2 tanks, 2 armored personnel carriers, 7 pieces of artillery weapons and the Grad MLRS;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 230 people in the South Donetsk direction per day;

— The Russian Armed Forces hit the launchers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces S-300 and Buk air defense systems in the DPR.

▫️In the South Donetsk direction , units of the Vostok group of troops defeated the manpower and equipment of the 102nd and 128th defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Vodyanoye, Donetsk People's Republic and Malinovka, Zaporozhye region.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to up to 230 military personnel, two tanks, two armored combat vehicles, six cars, an Msta-B howitzer , as well as a combat vehicle of the Stormer anti-aircraft missile system made in Great Britain.

▫️In the Kherson direction, units of the Dnepr group of troops defeated concentrations of manpower and equipment of the 117th mechanized brigade , the 38th marine brigade , the 121st technical defense brigade and the 15th national guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Sadovoe, Mikhailovka, Kherson region and Malaya Tokmachka, Zaporozhye region.

In the area of ​​​​the village of Rabotino, Zaporozhye region, an attack by the assault group of the 118th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was repelled .

Enemy losses amounted to 25 military personnel and three vehicles.

▫️Operational-tactical aviation , unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit: launchers of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems in the area of ​​the Mayaki settlement of the Donetsk People's Republic and "Buk" in the area of ​​the Vozdvizhenka settlement of the Donetsk People's Republic, UAV control center in the area of ​​Novokalinovo, Donetsk People's Republic, as well as manpower and military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 104 districts.

▫️A MiG-29 fighter of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down by air defense systems in the area of ​​the village of Lyubomirovka, Nikolaev region .

During the day, four HIMARS missiles were intercepted .

In addition, 112 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed, including in the areas of the settlements Peschanoye, Nikolskoye, Staromikhailovka, Lastochkino in the Donetsk People's Republic and Romanovskoye in the Zaporozhye region.

📊In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 576 aircraft, 267 helicopters, 14,305 unmanned aerial vehicles, 479 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,360 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,233 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 8,299 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 19,365 units of special military vehicles.

(-25%)

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

HOW THE BAD GERMANS WERE EXPOSED BY THEIR GENERALS – AND NOT ONLY BY THEM

Image

by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

Ingo Gerhartz, (lead images), 58, was once a conscript in the German Luftwaffe who turned his ambition to be a fighter pilot into a Pentagon-supervised career to the very top of the German Air Force for the past six years.

The skinheaded Gerhartz has never faced combat in the air or even hostile fire from the ground, although for nine months of 2009 he dropped bombs on Afghanistan. He was a colonel then. It took him another six years acting as air force public relations spokesman in Berlin, before he was promoted to brigadier general. He made major general and lieutenant general in three years in a Berlin bunker.

However, Gerhartz has shed his blood. That was last November, when he donated it at a Tel Aviv hospital for those Israel Defence Forces who were hit by Palestinian soldiers defending against the genocide of Gaza.

Frank Graefe, 57, started his Luftwaffe officer’s career at the same time as Gerhartz and was better educated. But Gerhartz got ahead of Graefe in the air and on the promotion list. Both were trained in the US on Phantom fighters; Graefe then did more time at his desk than in the cockpit, and took nine years to get from lieutenant colonel to colonel. Gerhartz managed that promotion in six years. Even in Afghanistan, where Graefe also served, he sat on a chair in a heavily guarded office in Kabul. Graefe has never been in combat.

But he has served under direct Pentagon control at its branch on Reservoir Road, NW, Washington, which is known as the German embassy. Graefe was raised to brigadier general to act as military attaché there. “From Neuburg to the centre of power” is the headline in a Saarland regional newspaper which Graefe arranged to advertise himself in Washington; Saarland is Graefe’s home state; he is the most important figure ever to have been born in the village of Nohfelden, which is a short drive south of Cochem, Gerhartz’s home town next to the Büchel nuclear air base.

From the Pentagon Graefe returned to Berlin to serve under Gerhartz, but it is unclear — or remains secret — on which staff Graefe is serving; he is not ranked at the top of the Air Operations Command nor at the top of the Forces Command, nor on Gerhartz’s headquarters staff.

Graefe’s relationships with the Pentagon and with the US Air Force General Charles Brown Jr., now chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have been watched and assessed by Russian military intelligence for some time. Graefe’s work, together with Gerhartz, in running the NATO Air Defender 2023 exercise last June was a rehearsal and test run for F-16 attacks on Russia from airfields in Germany, Romania, and Poland to be used for refueling, electronic warfare, command and control, as well as disguise and deception; read the analysis here.

On February 19, when Gerhartz discussed the new operation combining F-16s with the Taurus missile, Graefe repeatedly emphasized how many months of delay would be required to prevent “an erroneous use…a rocket may fall on a kindergarten, and again there will be civilian casualties. These aspects must be taken into account.” Graefe also insisted: “We need to make sure that from the very beginning there is no language that makes us a party to the conflict.”

Gerhartz replied dismissively; the transcript exposes Gerhartz as gung-ho for attacking Russia, the sooner the better. “When we are planning deadlines, we should not overestimate them,” Gerhartz told Graefe. “There is no basis to say that we cannot do this. There is a certain scale where the ‘red line’ lies politically, there is a ‘long’ and a ‘short’ path, there are differences in terms of using the full potential.”

Graefe’s role in exposing Gerhartz’s operational plan to attack Russian civilian and military targets has drawn scrutiny from the GRU.

A report on what the Russians have learned about Graefe and Gerhartz appeared yesterday in Moscow. This is written by Yevgeny Krutikov, a former GRU field officer and one of the leading security analysts publishing in the Moscow internet platform Vzglyad. This is how the German enemy is to be seen.

For the full transcript of the Gerhartz-Graefe teleconference, and an analysis of its significance, read this.

The Russian original of the report can be read here. Illustrations and links have been added for clarification.

Image
Vzglyad’s publication leads with a picture of Brigadier General Frank Graefe in combat uniform giving an interview to a Bild reporter.

Image
Graefe promoted himself in front of the US Capitol in Washington in a hometown newspaper promotion in 2021. From 2012 to 2015 Graefe had led a squadron of Typhoon Eurofighters based at Neuberg which is 200 kilometres to the northeast of Nohfelden. He flew again with the Americans when he led a German airforce mission in Jordan alongside USAF operations against the Russians in Syria between 2015 and 2017.


March 4, 2024
Who gave Russia the confessions of a German general about plans to
attack the Crimean Bridge
By Yevgeny Krutikov

Germany has launched an investigation into the scandal involving the leaking of a conversation between senior German military officials discussing the attack on the Crimean Bridge. The Bundeswehr leadership blames “unsecured communication systems” for everything, thanks to which Russia gained access to this conversation.

However, there is reason to believe that the special services of an altogether different country had access to it, which then shared it with Russia. What is this about?

The German ambassador to Moscow, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, arrived at the Russian Foreign Ministry on Monday, March 4, whence he was summoned in connection with the published conversations of the Bundeswehr officers about a possible attack on the Crimean Bridge. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that the content of this conversation highlights the direct involvement of the West in the conflict over Ukraine. If everything the officers said is part of government policy, then that’s bad. If not, then the question arises as to how much the Bundeswehr is controlled by the Berlin authorities. The Kremlin expects to find out the results of the inspection promised by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Image
Left: Ambassador Lambsdorff whose estates in Latvia and Estonia were confiscated by the Soviet Union which failed to recognize the military service his ancestors had performed for the tsar in the Russian empire. Right: Eva Hoegl, the Parliamentary Commissioner for the German Armed Forces. She is from Osnabruck, several hundred kilometres north of Cochem and Hohfelden.

Ambassador Lambsdorff declined to comment after visiting [the Foreign Ministry at] Smolenskaya Square. Official Berlin is still talking only about how the conversation of high–ranking German military officials was leaked. The substance of the conversation – discussing plans to attack Russian territory – does not interest them. Hence, on the subject of the investigation, which was launched by the German prosecutor’s office, investigators are only interested in the extent of the negligence of the officers who allegedly used an unsecured communication system.

According to German media, the Bundeswehr officers, whose conversation was intercepted, talked through the WebEx application from the American provider Cisco. And this system does not provide end-to-end encryption when connecting from a mobile phone.

The Bundestag‘s Commissioner for the German Armed Forces, Eva Hoegl, has already stated that all the responsible individuals should immediately undergo secure communication training. In addition, it is necessary to invest more funds in protection against espionage, and for this it is necessary, she said, to strengthen the German military counterintelligence service. According to Foegl, the incident shows the need to take urgent measures.

At the same time, a publication appeared in the London Times that Russia is allegedly able to track the transportation of SCALP missiles to Ukraine thanks to an intercepted conversation between Bundeswehr officers. German officers there say that France is sending missiles in some vehicles called Q7, and the British are using Ridgback armoured vehicles to transport Storm Shadow missiles.

Image
Left: the SCALP/Storm Shadow missile manufactured by the German armsmaker, MBDA. Click to enlarge image. Right: the Taurus KEPD, built by MBDA. Click to enlarge and read more.

Meanwhile, the questions of the how, who, and why of the intercepted the conversation of the German officers are gradually becoming more complicated. German sources speak only of the existence of a “security hole”. In this regard, Brigadier General Frank Graefe, head of the Department of Operations and Exercises of the Bundeswehr Air Force, may become a scapegoat. He was the one who was in a hotel in Singapore at the time of the conversation, where he connected to the WebEx network via a local, unsecured Wi-Fi network. The rest of the participants of the video conference were in Germany, and there, they say, everything is supposedly protected. Which, by the way, is not a fact at all. It is enough to recall the scandalous wiretapping of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s telephones by the Americans.

In the Bundestag, the CDU faction wondered how “Russian spies” got the phone numbers of high-ranking German officers and “how they were able to gain access to this conference.” Is there only a problem with hotel Wi-Fi in distant Singapore?

To begin with, the German officers were talking to each other for a reason. They were preparing for an upcoming meeting with Defense Minister Pistorius. This already cancels all the logic of German self-justification for that part of the conversation which refers to the supposedly “purely theoretical” nature of the conversation. The pilots (at least two of them, including General Graefe, are people who are in love with their flying business, who are considered aces and still practice flying despite their general ranks) discussed the quite practical side of the issue in order to then voice it to the minister.

And here we can assume that someone who wanted to listen to all this could have known in advance that the officers were planning such a conference. Otherwise, we must assume that someone in a Singapore hotel was very lucky to connect to the Wi-Fi network at the right moment.

It is difficult to imagine that someone was relentlessly following General Graefe around the world in the hope of catching his accidental decision to connect from a regular telephone to a conference. The general could have gone to the German embassy, for example, where there is probably a more secure communication line. Yes, this is negligence on his part. But this negligence could not have been foreseen in advance.

In addition, in order to reasonably assume that the general will have been too lazy to leave his hotel room, it is necessary to have a full-fledged profile of his personality (to know the peculiarities of his behaviour and his preferences in action). This profile is formed within the framework of an “operational development case” (DOR), which is colloquially known by the term “dossier”, which is unusual for the Russian special services. A full-fledged personality profile of Frank Graefe could be formed if he had been under surveillance for a long time.

Frank Graefe was appointed head of the Air Force Operations and Exercises Department just the other day. And since the end of 2019, he served as the German military attaché in Washington, to serve as which he was awarded the rank of brigadier general.

Thus, if anyone knew in detail the peculiarities of General Graefe’s behaviour, it was the Americans. They also knew Graefe’s phone number, which they could connect to without any hotel Wi-Fi. This is not to mention the fact that the WebEx system originally belongs to an American provider, and the European military considers it safe on account of their misunderstanding.

Listening to all German pilots at once around the clock is a difficult task. As well as chasing Frank Graefe to Singapore in the hope that he would act negligently or unwisely at this very short instant in time – the conversation lasted only 38 minutes. But the finished recording could be obtained from those who found it much easier and more convenient to make it – the Americans. And they tend to listen to and record everything in general. And they have the appropriate technical capabilities.

Thus, it can reasonably be assumed that Russian intelligence has some kind of intelligence capabilities inside the US National Security Agency. Or if not exactly agents, then let’s say, informants who are close ideologically.

It is noteworthy that the American side behaves with very great restraint in regard to the transfer of such types of weapons to Ukraine as heavy long-range missiles like the Taurus. And this is plain at the level of the official rhetoric. And we must also remember that there are enough conservative people inside the American special services who can quite proactively sabotage the amateur activities of a number of European countries.

For example, [French President Emmanuel] Macron’s ideas about the possible introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine have caused a sharply negative reaction, not only from allies on the continent, but also in Washington. The keenness of a number of German politicians on the idea of transferring Taurus missiles to Kiev does not cause fears so much as sharply negative sentiment on the part of American officials.

Image
Read more: https://www.politico.eu/

The internal German context is very complicated, especially during the pre-election period. And the publication of this conversation by German officers rather helps [Chancellor Olaf] Scholz, who has been blocking the whole story of the Taurus so far. The scandal, of course, hits the security system of Germany and, in general, the prestige of the Bundeswehr. But most importantly, it demonstrates to the whole world the danger and moral weakness of the very idea of supplying Ukraine with such weapons.


Objectively, on the issue of supplying Kiev with such weapons, the Russian and American positions appear to have a certain kind of congruity. It is scarcely possible to be talking about direct and official cooperation between the special services – that is still very far away, if at all possible in principle. But radical politicians in Europe should think about all the oddities of what is happening around the intercepted conversation of German officers. And the American side may soon be looking for “moles” in its own ranks.


https://johnhelmer.net/how-the-bad-germ ... more-89507

******

The Bundeswehr scandal: loose ends

There are many ‘loose ends’ in the story about the Bundeswehr generals discussing how to use Taurus missiles to destroy the Kerch (Crimea) bridge, not least of which is the question of Russians supposedly breaking secure communications lines to obtain the recording which RT’s Margarita Simonyan made public. Just how complicated and rife with speculation the entire scandal may be was made clear yesterday by a certain Alexander Sosnovsky in his appearance as a panelist on the Evening with Vladimir Solovyov talk show.

Born in Kiev, Sosnovsky is a naturalized German who arrived in the country in the 1990s and has made a career as a university and think tank lecturer on international politics. He is also the editor of the internet journal World Economy. Sosnovsky’s side line is as guest on Russian state television talk shows, either in studio in Moscow or by remote from Berlin, as was the case yesterday when he spoke from behind the wheel of his parked car. One may assume that Sosnovsky is paid handsomely for his time on Russian television, unlike the domestic Russian panelists who are treated to a cup of coffee, a little sandwich and a handshake.

Most of Sosnovsky’s appearances on the Solovyov show have been empty of content from my perspective. Given his place of residence and Jewish identity, Sosnovsky regularly does verbal ‘high fives’ with the program host and little more. But his ten minutes at the microphone last night caught my full attention.

Sosnovsky did what the Financial Times journalists in their feature article on the scandal failed to do: he asked who were the generals recorded on the tapes, what are their relations to the civilian authorities in Germany and to Big Brother in Washington. When you do that, the plot really thickens.

The overall commander of the Luftwaffe, Lt General Gerhartz is very close to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who depends on him for advice on military questions since he, Pistorius, is clueless. Pistorius received a higher education in political science and has had a government career at the municipal level (Osnabruck) followed by service as Minister of Internal Affairs in Lower Saxony for 2013-23. He was named Defense Minister just over a year ago.

Of course, there is nothing surprising in the fact that a person totally incompetent in military affairs should have been appointed to run the Defense Ministry in Germany. After all, before she was ‘kicked upstairs’ to head the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen had been the Defense Minister of Germany and her professional training was as a….gynecologist.

Pistorius is a member of the same party as Scholz (Social Democrats) and is perceived as more popular with the broad public. Certainly he is positioned as more hawkish on Russia and more determined than the chancellor.

Sosnovsky speculates that the discussion of possibilities for using Germany’s 500 km range, air launched Taurus cruise missiles to attack the Kerch (Crimea) bridge, a discussion in which Gerhartz acted as moderator, was intended to find holes in the Chancellor’s arguments against turning over these weapons to the Ukrainians. The fact that their conversation was overheard, that is to say ‘tapped,’ by outsiders may not have been an accident but instead was their very intention. In short, Sosnovsky is suggesting that a putsch to oust Scholz from power may have been the real intent of the plotters.

This scenario is supported by the use of communication lines that were not and could not be completely secure. Discussions of such confidential security issues are, by military regulation, never to be held with anyone outside the boundaries of the Federal Republic. And yet one of the key participants, Erik Gräfe, was in Singapore at the time and the line was WebEx internet telephony from Cisco, meaning that U.S. intelligence could have easily intercepted it, not to mention the intelligence gatherers of another 15 countries, including Russia.

As Sosnovsky points out, Gräfe was not vacationing in Singapore. No, he was just on a stopover on his way to Alaska. To Alaska? In this regard, it is highly relevant to mention that Gräfe has had close professional relations with the Americans. At the end of 2019, he was appointed as the Federal Republic’s military attaché in the German embassy in Washington. This was when he was promoted to the rank of Brigadier General.

I will take a step beyond the educated guesswork of Mr. Sosnovsky and ask whether it was not indeed Washington that was behind this putsch plot, since to its more rabid Russophobes in the Biden administration Scholz is not fit to purpose.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/03/04/9718/

******

‘Untenable Positions’ – Warning Signs Abound

Alastair Crooke

March 4, 2024

The GOP base does not favour giving more cash to Ukraine – will little or no prospect that it can prevail.[/b]

<snip>

Panic is widening in respect to Ukraine too: In Europe, leaders were summoned at 24 hours’ notice to the Elysée Palace to hear President Macron warn EU states that the situation on the ground in Ukraine was so critical, and the stakes for Europe so high, that: “We’re at a critical point in the conflict where we need to take the initiative: We’re determined to do whatever it takes for as long as it takes”.

Macron underlined the growing doubts about America’s continuing support for Kiev and warned of a potential new Russian offensive and brutal attacks planned to “shock” Ukrainians and their allies. “We are convinced that Russia’s defeat is essential for the security and stability of Europe” … “Europe is at stake”.

Bluntly, Macron was grandstanding in order to prise the defence and security leadership of Europe away from Germany, which is busily building a U.S.-linked military axis in alliance with Poland, the Baltics and the European Commission President, former German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen, and to capture it for France.

In any event, Macron’s bid was ‘a bust’. His call faced immediate repudiation, both within France, and by other European leaders. None of Macron’s peer leaders agreed with him (except possibly the Dutch). Behind the Elysée precipitous ‘theatre’ however, there lurks a more serious objective – that of further centralising EU control through having a common EU defence procurement process.

To fund this European unified defence capacity, the Commission is looking to initiate unitary EU bond issuance and a centralised taxing mechanism (both of which are prohibited under EU Treaties). These are the unspoken projects behind the ‘scare’ narrative of Russian ‘intent’ to invade Europe.

Amidst this, in Europe, both desperation and the casting of ‘blame’ for the Ukraine debacle has begun in earnest: Chancellor Scholtz, in defending Berlin’s decision to not supply long-range Taurus missiles to Kiev, threw France and the UK ‘under the bus.’

Scholtz said that to supply Taurus missiles would require the assistance of German troops on the ground: “as is done by the British and French, in terms of [missile] target-control and target-control assistance. German soldiers can at no point, and in no place, be linked with the targets that this [long-range] system reaches”, Scholz insisted.

Needless to say, his explicit admission of European troops already on the ground in Ukraine caused a ruckus in Europe. The fact long suspected, is now official.

Yet what is it that caused the wider Euro-hysteria (beyond Macron’s theatricals)?

Most likely two things: First, the rout of Ukrainian forces from Avdeevka, plus the sudden shock of realising that there are no real Ukrainian defensive lines behind Avdeevka – only a few of hamlets and then fields.

And second, the concomitant New York Times’ epic essay The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin by Adam Entous and Mitchell Schwirtz, describing a decade of CIA-Ukrainian cooperation, and reminding all that the U.S. might sever from Kiev quite soon (unless a spending bill is passed).

Adam Entous also co-authored the 2017 Washington Post piece entitled, Obama’s secret struggle to punish Russia for Putin’s election assault, which, as Matt Taibbi notes, told the cinematic tale of how John Brennan [then head of CIA] hand-delivered to Barack Obama an “intelligence bombshell” from a prized source “deep inside the Russian government.”

“The heart-racing narrative revealed how the CIA not only learned of Vladimir Putin’s direct involvement in a campaign to “damage” Hillary Clinton and “help elect her opponent, Donald Trump,” but safely delivered the hush-hush news for the President’s eyes only (before telling the entire world about it of course)”.

It was, of course, nonsense: The seeding narrative for the unfolding of Russiagate.

This new New York Times piece of revisionist narrative on Ukraine – full of questionable claims; puff for the CIA and for John Brennan’s role in particular – probably was understood by western Intel services as a ‘Dear John’ break-up letter, ahead of a coming divorce. The CIA was preparing to exit Ukraine.

As to be expected in any ‘Dear John’ missive, the text is framed to exonerate ‘the author’ of all blame and legal liabilities (for murder and assassination): “An un-subtle leitmotif runs through the text detailing civilized America continually begging Ukrainians to lay off atrocities”.

As the partnership deepened “after 2016,” the Times reports, Ukrainians “began staging assassinations and other lethal operations, which violated the terms the White House thought the Ukrainians had agreed to.” Americans were “infuriated” and “threatened to cut off support”, but never did. (Taibbi notes).

It is not clear whether Speaker Johnson will hold the line in refusing to bring the foreign aid Bill to the floor of the House, providing $60 billion for Kiev; or if he will not prove able to persevere.

Yet the ‘writing is on the wall’, as Senate minority leader McConnell tartly observed, whilst announcing his coming retirement as Senate Leader: ‘Politics has shifted, I can see that’, he said.

The GOP base does not favour giving more cash to Ukraine – will little or no prospect that it can prevail.

The point here – clearly spooking European intelligence services – is that so much of what success Ukraine earlier has enjoyed derives from one key factor: western overmatch in ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance). NATO weaponry has disappointed; NATO military doctrine has been slated by Ukrainian forces; but ISR has been key.

The New York Times essay is clear: “a discreet passageway descends to a subterranean bunker where teams of Ukrainian soldiers track Russian spy satellites and eavesdrop on conversations between Russian commanders …”. Are these ‘Ukrainian soldiers’ or NATO techies?

When the CIA does depart when the money is cut, it will not be just their staff that goes. The CIA will not leave sensitive kit and intercept equipment behind, to be overrun by Russian forces, and taken for forensic autopsy. Has this already happened? Were those secret bunkers perchance at Avdeeka? Are sensitive details about to leaked?

In any event, the European intelligence ‘assistance’ to Ukraine will largely be eviscerated by a CIA withdrawal of staff and equipment. In which case, what will be left for Europeans to do? They can fly airborne surveillance; they can use NATO satellites, but not ubiquitously.

And then, might angry, abandoned Ukrainians spin their own narratives? Ukrainian Intelligence Chief Kirill Budanov just punctured the western ‘Putin killed Navalny’ narrative: Asked about the death, Budanov said, “I may disappoint you, but we know he died from a blood clot. It’s more or less confirmed. This is not taken from the Internet”.

Budanov also knocked down other U.S. narratives: Last week Reuters cited six sources reporting that “Iran has provided Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles”. Budanov responded to this by saying the Iranian missiles “are not here” and such information “does not correspond with reality.” He also contradicted statements about Russia deploying North Korean missiles, another recent American story: “While a few North Korean missiles were utilized”, he said, “assertions of widespread use do not hold true.”

Here lies the crux to the New York Times piece: Fear of fallout from disgruntled Ukrainian officials. “Especially in an election year, any war of words between erstwhile allies could get ugly in a heartbeat”.

Biden be warned. Perhaps, however, it’s already too late?

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... ns-abound/

*******

Ukraine - Cookie Monster Retires

A big fat rat is leaving the ship.

One might interpret this as the State Department's admittance of defeat in the U.S. war against Russia in Ukraine:

On the Retirement of Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland - Anthony Blinken / State Department, Mar 5 2024

Victoria Nuland has let me know that she intends to step down in the coming weeks as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs – a role in which she has personified President Biden’s commitment to put diplomacy back at the center of our foreign policy and revitalize America’s global leadership at a crucial time for our nation and the world.
...
It’s Toria’s leadership on Ukraine that diplomats and students of foreign policy will study for years to come. Her efforts have been indispensable to confronting Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marshaling a global coalition to ensure his strategic failure, and helping Ukraine work toward the day when it will be able to stand strongly on its own feet – democratically, economically, and militarily.
...
President Biden and I have asked our Under Secretary for Management John Bass to serve as Acting Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs until Toria’s replacement is confirmed.


Victoria Nuland, a member of the neo-conservative Kagan clan, is only 62 years old - too young to retire regularly.

She will be remembered for handing out cookies to anti-government demonstrators in Ukraine and for installing the 2014 coup regime.

That has been her main project in the State Department. But the 2014 Maidan putsch that turn the Ukraine into a battering ram against Russia, has ended in a complete failure.

Image

Neither was Russia 'weakened' by the war nor has Ukraine any perspective to survive but as some Russian controlled land-locked backwater country in Europe's east.

Given that billions were spent on Ukraine with little controls and nothing to show for Nuland, and her family, have certainly made a bit on the side. One wonders if any of the ongoing and coming investigations into the black hole Ukraine will leave them unscarred.

As even Guardian commentators are now waking up to the mess they helped create it is high time for European politicians to also finally accept this reality:

Western Europe has no conceivable interest in escalating the Ukraine war through a long-range missile exchange. While it should sustain its logistical support for Ukrainian forces, it has no strategic interest in Kyiv’s desire to drive Russia out of the majority Russian-speaking areas of Crimea or Donbas. It has every interest in assiduously seeking an early settlement and starting the rebuilding of Ukraine.
As for the west’s “soft power” sanctions on Russia, they have failed miserably, disrupting the global trading economy in the process. Sanctions may be beloved of western diplomats and thinktanks. They may even hurt someone – not least Britain’s energy users – but they have not devastated the Russian economy or changed Putin’s mind. This year Russia’s growth rate is expected to exceed Britain’s.

The crass ineptitude of a quarter of a century of western military interventions should have taught us some lessons. Apparently not.


Posted by b on March 5, 2024 at 14:51 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/03/u ... l#comments

******

Germany and NATO Caught Red-Handed in War Planning

Finian Cunningham

March 6, 2024

If it is confirmed that the bridge in Russia was hit by a missile then it would appear that the NATO war against Russia has reached a new threshold.

German military leaders may have bungled foolishly over their private discussions regarding operational plans against Russia. However, the security of their incompetent communication – while laughable – does not lessen the seriousness of what was being discussed.

Lt. General Ingo Gerhartz and his aides were earnestly weighing up the technical and propaganda means by which to strike Russia with long-range ballistic missiles. In short, a NATO member was caught red-handed hatching an act of war against Russia.

After Russian media published the audio of the conversation, the German reaction has been to dismiss it as a cerebral war-gaming exercise and as an attempt by Russian disinformation to undermine the government of Olaf Scholz.

This obfuscation by Berlin will not wash. The incontrovertible fact is that the German commanders were deliberating on how to “optimize” the Ukrainian offensive capability to hit Russian targets with the long-range German Taurus cruise missile. The weapon has supposedly not yet been supplied to the Ukrainian regime due to concerns among some German politicians that doing so would escalate the war with Russia. It is clear from the audio tape that the German military chiefs are frustrated by the politicians not ordering the supply of the Taurus.

Gerhartz, the head of the German air force, tells his subordinates in no uncertain terms: “We are now fighting a war that uses much more modern technology than our good old Luftwaffe.”

There you have it: the top German commander says unequivocally, “We are now fighting a war”.

He also goes on to disclose that the American, British, and French militaries are deeply involved in the logistics and planning of attacks by the Ukrainian forces.

We know from numerous other sources that the NATO militaries are involved on the ground in Ukraine fighting against Russian forces. American HIMARS and Patriot missile systems, and the British Storm Shadow and the French Scalp cruise missiles are operated with military expertise from these NATO members.

Still, what is highly damaging from the German military leak is the extent to which the commanders endeavor to conceal the involvement of Germany in a war with Russia. The tortuous conversation about how to avoid the imputation of the German military makes it clear that the German high command knows full well the gravity of what they are organizing. They are discussing the conduct of a covert war against Russia. This is tantamount to the crime of aggression and it runs the risk of starting a full-on war which would no doubt escalate into a nuclear conflagration.

At one point in the discussion with his interlocutors, Lt Gen. Gerhartz talks about the need to conceal direct military involvement by Germany in supplying the Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

He says: “I understand what you are talking about. Politicians may be concerned about the direct, closed connection between Büchel [German air base] and Ukraine, which could become direct participation in the Ukrainian conflict. But in this case, we can say that the exchange of information will take place through MBDA [the German manufacturer of Taurus], and we will send one or two of our specialists to Schrobenhausen. Of course, this is a trick, but from a political point of view, it may look different. If information is exchanged through the manufacturer, then this is not associated with us.”

This is self-incriminating evidence that the German high command is participating in a conspiracy to expand the war against Russia. The only reservation is not to be identified publicly in waging war acts. With utmost cynicism, the German military leaders are looking for a way to claim plausible denial after the crime.

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of the National Security Council, called it correctly when he said of the leaked audio tapes that they show Germany is planning war against Russia.

Berlin dismissed Medvedev’s claim as “absurd”. Berlin is the one being absurd if it thinks that the conversation of its military leaders can be palmed off as simply idle banter and theoretical war gaming.

In the 38-minute discussion, the Luftwaffe commander and his underlings explicitly talk about supplying up to 100 Taurus missiles for Ukrainian regime forces to strike deep into Russia. The German top brass refer to the Taurus as a “super tool” and they specifically identify the destruction of an important bridge in the east, which is presumably the Kerch Bridge linking the Russian mainland to Crimea.

The German missile has a range of over 500 kilometers which is twice that of the British or French weapons.

It looks like the German military is taking on the task of leading deep strikes into Russia. London is reportedly urging Berlin to supply the Taurus missiles despite the embarrassment of the leaked private conversation.

This week it is reported that a railway bridge was destroyed in Russia’s southwest Samara province near the city of Chapaevsk. The location is further east than Moscow and is around 1,000 km from the NATO-backed Kiev regime’s front lines in Ukraine. The attack appears to have been a precision strike.

As the German commanders noted in their discussions, collapsing a bridge is one of the most difficult aerial operations that requires precision capability and sophisticated radar evasion. Their conversation took place on February 19. The leak was published last weekend. Media reports say the German government is opposed to signing off on supplying the missiles. But with so much going on behind the public’s back who knows if and when these weapons are released? Have they been already?

If it is confirmed that the bridge near Chapaevsk was hit by a missile then it would appear that the NATO war against Russia has reached a new ominous threshold.

Some Western media outlets commented that the Russian publication of the Luftwaffe audio tape last weekend was aimed at embarrassing the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz into definitely ruling out any supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine. However, such speculation assumes that Scholz is in control of his military commanders. Most likely they don’t answer to him; they answer to the occupying power in Germany – the United States.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... -planning/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10769
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Mar 06, 2024 9:48 pm

PATRICK LAWRENCE: The Russians in Ukraine
March 6, 2024

Recent disclosures provide an incomplete inventory of the West’s covert activities in Ukraine. There is more than we have been told, surely.

Image
Kherson street after Russian strike on the city center on Feb. 2. (National Police of Ukraine, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0)

By Patrick Lawrence
Special to Consortium News

You may have read or heard about the freakout that ensued after Emmanuel Macron convened a summit of European leaders in Paris last week. At a press briefing afterward, the French president allowed that NATO may at some point send troops to Ukraine to join the fight against Russian military forces.

Before I go further, let me suggest a couple of thoughts readers can tuck somewhere in the corners of their minds for later consideration.

One, Russia’s intervention in Ukraine two years ago last month was unprovoked. Two, all the Kremlin’s talk about the threat of NATO hard by its southwestern border is nothing more than the distortion and paranoia of “Putin’s Russia,” as we must now refer to the Russian Federation.

It went this way in Paris last week. At the presser following the summit Macron was asked whether Ukraine’s Western backers were considering deploying troops in Ukraine. The French president replied that while European leaders had not reached any kind of agreement, the idea was certainly on the table when they gathered at Elysée Palace.

And then this:

“Nothing should be ruled out. We will do anything we can to prevent Russia from winning this war.”

Instantly came the vigorous objections. The Brits, the Spanish, the Italians, the Poles, the Slovakians, the Hungarians: They all said in so many words, “No way.” Even Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s war-mongering sec-gen, objected to Macron’s assertion.

No one was more vehement on this point than Olaf Scholz. “What was agreed among ourselves and with each other from the very beginning also applies to the future,” saith the German chancellor, “namely that there will be no ground troops, no soldiers on Ukrainian soil sent there by European countries or NATO states.”

Plenty of Offensive Hardware

Image
Scholz and Stoltenberg, December 2021. (NATO, Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

O.K., but at the same summit those present joined to support sending long-range missiles to the Ukrainians, weapons fully capable of reaching cities, power grids, industrial plants and other targets deep inside Russia. So: No troops, plenty of offensive hardware.

The Paris gathering precipitated a significant moment of truth, if we can call it such. Scholz, who is on a knife’s edge politically in part for his government’s support for Ukraine, immediately asserted that Germany would not send its Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine because German troops would have to go with them, as the Ukrainians could not operate them on their own.

Look at the British, Scholz added indelicately. When they send their Storm Shadow missiles (and I must say I love the names the West’s arsenal minders come up with for these things) British personnel have to go with them.

Yikes! Such indiscretion.

As Stephen Bryen reported in his Weapons and Strategy newsletter, “The British cried foul and accused Scholz of ‘flagrant abuse of intelligence.’” Abuse of intelligence is a new one on me, but never mind. Bryen, who follows these matters closely as a former Defense Department official, continued:

“Scholz confirmed what everyone already knows, that NATO officers and trained personnel are in Ukraine operating weapons such as the Patriot and NASAM air defense system, the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system, the British–French Storm Shadow cruise missile (SCALP–EG in France), and many other complex weapons provided to Ukraine.”

There we have it — or there we have had it, if covertly, for a long time.

Last week The New York Times published a long takeout on the Central Intelligence Agency’s presence and programs in Ukraine, which extend back at least a decade and almost certainly much further.

[Mykola Lebed, a top aide to Stepan Bandera, the leader of the fascist OUN-B, was recruited by the C.I.A. in 1948, according to a 2010 study by the U.S. National Archives. See: On the Influence of Neo-Nazism in Ukraine.]

This includes an archipelago of sub-surface tracking, targeting and communications centers the agency set up and now helps operate for the Ukrainian intel services, a dozen of which are strung along Ukraine’s border with Russia.

Another case of the covert turned overt, in the Times’ case by design. As your columnist has noted elsewhere, the Times’ reporters could never have unearthed the C.I.A.’s doings in Ukraine had the agency not decided to give them a guided tour.

Then there are the Western mercenaries and others of indeterminate status. There is naturally no accurate count of these, but they certainly number in the thousands — Americans, Brits, French, Germans, Poles, Romanians and who have you.

In mid–January the Russians announced they had shelled a hotel in Kharkiv that served as a base for French “volunteers,” as the common euphemism has it, killing 60 of them. Paris marked this down as “disinformation,” that useful catchall for inconvenient disclosures.

But Moscow had immediately summoned the French ambassador to complain of “Paris’s growing involvement in the conflict over Ukraine.” Does this kind of thing figure in any disinformation op you’ve ever heard of?

It is unthinkable, at least in my view, that these recent disclosures make a complete inventory of the West’s covert activities in Ukraine. There is more than we have been told, surely. But let us consider what has to date been brought into the open.

Stephen Bryen puts best the point that must be made in view of these facts literally on the ground. “If NATO is so much against sending troops to Ukraine,” he asks, “why doesn’t NATO demand that the soldiers already there be sent home?”

Over-Invested in the Conflict

Image
Ukraine’s President Volodomyr Zelensky addressing NATO summit in Madrid, June 2022. (NATO)

Excellent question. My answer: The Western powers, radically over-invested in Ukraine’s confrontation with Russia, are panicking as the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreat in the face of Russian advances and as support for this folly wanes on both sides of the Atlantic.

If anything, the covert presence of Western personnel in Ukraine may increase.

It is obvious that Ukraine is losing its war against Russia, and at a faster pace than most analysts seem to have anticipated even last autumn. I am reading reports now that the final collapse of the AFU may prove three or so months away.

You have to wonder what then. Pulitzerworld will recognize the Times’ perfectly dreadful Ukraine coverage with one or two of those ridiculous prizes the big dailies pass around among themselves. All those neo–Nazis the Times euphemizes as the AFU’s “elite commandos” will have to work off their pathological Russophobia in some other fashion.

The West’s weird, disparate presence in Ukraine: This will not look the same. But it will not go away. And so we come to the truth at the heart of this recent raft of revelations.

It is this. The Russians — “Putin” if you like — were right all along. The Ukraine crisis is merely the latest phase of the West’s long campaign to surround the Russian Federation up to its borders, destabilize it and finally subvert it. Regime change in Moscow was and remains the final objective.

This is not a war in defense of “Ukrainian democracy” — a phrase that causes one either to laugh or do the other thing. It is the West’s proxy war, start to finish, Ukrainians cynically cast as cannon fodder, expendable stooges.

Russia had no choice when it intervened two years ago, this after eight years’ patience as the Europeans — Germany and France, this is to say — broke every promise they made by way of supporting a settlement. The Americans didn’t break any promises because they never made any — and no one would take them seriously if they had.

I come to the judgment I offered when the war that began in 2014 erupted into open conflict two years ago. The Russian intervention was regrettable but necessary. I took some stick for this view back in 2022. I learn lately it is recorded in some European intelligence files as if it were a major transgression.

It is as true now as then. All we learn in drips and drops about the Western powers’ various covert doings in the sad, failed state they have done much to ruin, confirms this.

https://consortiumnews.com/2024/03/06/p ... n-ukraine/

*******

PAUL R. GRENIER: THOUGHTS ON THE QUINCY INSTITUTE’S “THE DIPLOMATIC PATH TO A SECURE UKRAINE”
MARCH 3, 2024 NATYLIESB
Emphasis via bolding is mine. – Natylie

By Paul Grenier, ACURA, 2/29/24

Anatol Lieven’s and George Beebe’s “The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine” serves as a refreshing antidote to the usual mainstream account of the Ukraine conflict. They provide objective, factual data on the demographic, economic-industrial, and troop strength gaps — not to say chasms — separating Russia and Ukraine today. They further note, in a similarly realistic vein, that attrition warfare by no means favors Ukraine:

… in a war of attrition, the numbers, munitions and economy of one side falter before the other does so, leading to a collapse either of the army or the home front. As things stand at present, if either side in the Ukraine War eventually cracks, it seems likely to be Ukraine.

This circumstance, Lieven and Beebe conclude, should motivate even ardent supporters of Ukraine to start negotiations with Russia immediately, since delaying will only serve to put Kiev in an even weaker position. They point to President Putin’s apparent openness to such negotiations – an openness hinted at during his Feb. 8, 2024 interview with Tucker Carlson — as an encouraging sign. (What the Russian president in fact understood to be the purpose of such negotiations, however, remains, to me at least, somewhat mysterious.)

The authors raise the question, and it is an entirely rational question in the context of proposing negotiations, as to why the Russian side would wish to participate, given their present successes on the battlefield in this war of attrition. The crux of their argument runs as follows:

Russia … has shown that it can block the further expansion of NATO into ex–Soviet republics, but it cannot fight its way into Western recognition that Russia has a legitimate role to play in Europe’s security order, nor can it reduce the potential for direct war with NATO absent diplomatic engagement with the United States and Europe. In sum, although Russia can make progress on demilitarizing Ukraine, it still has some significant reasons to want an understanding with the West over Ukraine and the broader European security order [emphasis mine – PRG]

Parenthetically, it would appear that the authors are framing this conflict – accurately, in my view — as a conflict transpiring between Russia and the ‘collective West’ and not, as popular narratives often would have it, as a war Russia is waging on Ukraine. Whether or not this is what the authors intended to say, certainly this is precisely how Russia’s political and intellectual elites understand the current war. Russian political elites, with good reason, view the present war as between Russia and the collective West, and they view the West as using Ukraine as an instrument to assist the West in weakening Russia. I will not spend time here explaining why I agree that such a framing is in fact rational. Anyone who cares to can read the prior work of such scholars as John Mearsheimer or look up the suitable quotes from President Biden, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and a great many others. What follows from such a framing are some considerations both tactical and political-philosophical (or simply political) that it is my purpose, in what follows, to explore.

In respect to tactics, if and to the extent that Russia views the United States and its closest allies as their true foe, then it is entirely possible that the Russians will not see bringing the war to a rapid end, or trying to seize large swaths of territory, as a near-term or even medium-term goal. Although this is speculation, it seems likely that the Russian side is turning back against the United States the ‘bleed Russia’ strategy that, they no doubt accurately surmised, was the intent of the West at the outset of the war (hence all the sanctions, hence the ‘let’s create another Afghanistan for Russia’ rhetoric, etc.).

And why wouldn’t Russia be thinking in such terms? After all, how many more packets of 60 billion dollars can the West afford to provide to prop up Ukraine? When that cash finally dries up, how much loyalty will a population no longer receiving paychecks or pensions still feel toward their Western ‘benefactors’? When that day comes — i.e., when the cash runs out — Russia might manage to achieve a political settlement inside Ukraine corresponding to its original war aims even without the physical occupation or military conquest of Ukraine’s large territory. To be sure, this would in no way, in itself, lead to a cessation of hostilities between Russia and the U.S., but it would nonetheless represent a noteworthy defeat for the United States, a defeat dwarfing the earlier Afghan fiasco in its global geo-political implications.

The United States, in other words, may well have a far greater interest of its own in coming to the negotiating table than is suggested by the authors of “The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine.” Which brings us to the key question: Is it true that negotiations between the U.S. and Russia can succeed in an atmosphere without trust?

America Not What It Used to Be

On the one hand, as Lieven and Beebe point out, “Moscow and Washington have decades of useful Cold War experience in constructing, implementing, and monitoring a wide range of security agreements despite mutual distrust and broader geopolitical competition” (emphasis mine – PRG). And yet, what this ignores is that Cold War II is unfolding in a U.S. that differs strikingly from even the U.S. that existed as late as the 1980s, under Ronald Reagan. In the intervening years a whole generation of students has been educated by professors steeped in French post-structuralist theory (Foucault and the like). The key point is not so much that ‘truth’ (today always in scare quotes) has disappeared, as that it is simply assumed that truth only ever exists in reference to some particular power configuration: ‘truth’ is now simply an expression of someone’s interests, and nothing more.

Let us consider, for a moment, the style of argumentation now pervasive in nearly all discussions of foreign affairs. As Matthew Dal Santo has helpfully pointed out, today, questions of fact are no longer proven or disproven by appeals to logic and material evidence, but instead only ever by pointing out in whose interests it is to accept or deny a given proposition.

Did the U.S. play a role in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines (which, incidentally, was a massive violation of international law as well as an attack on Germany)? Which side, Russia or Ukraine, was purposely shelling civilian areas of Donbas after 2014 and, year after year, killing innocent women and children? Which side was shelling the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in 2022 – 2023 after it had been occupied by Russian troops? In all such cases, the answer is allegedly already known in advance prior to any material evidence – even though, to be sure, such real evidence is never even sought. ‘It definitely wasn’t our side, it wasn’t our team doing something wrong or illegal,’ we are repeatedly assured. After all, to assert otherwise would be to repeat ‘Putin talking points’!

This new American rhetorical style is by no means specific only to Russia or to the Ukraine war. To speak out against the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, or the destabilization of Syria and Libya starting in 2011, was similarly dismissed on the basis that questioning such policies was tantamount to promoting the interests of Assad and Qaddafi. Conformance to U.S. policy objectives has become the measure of truth.

But how can diplomacy take place between the U.S. and other states, if the U.S. has renounced the givenness of factual reality, if it has substituted for reality a utilitarian narrative whose veracity, on the one hand, and whose correspondence to American interests on the other hand, is always considered an identity?


Let it be granted, for the sake of argument, that what concerns American policy makers is not philosophical profundity but ‘what works.’ It is apparently widely assumed in Washington that the reduction of international politics to a conflict of warring interests does work, such that, if our application of pressure is continuously escalated, eventually the other side will be forced to accept the American picture of ‘reality’ and learn to ‘play ball’ according to our rules.

In the present case under consideration, will this ‘methodology’ (one can’t call it diplomacy) produce the desired results? In theory, at least, it could work if Russians were fully analogous to Pavlovian dogs that can be trained to respond to external stimuli – now the ‘pain’ of economic sanctions, now the ‘pleasant’ feelings of being told that they will be accepted by Europe and made part of its ‘security order.’ Apparently this approach did produce results for the American side in the 1990s. Many Russians bought what was on offer back then. It appears, however, that today’s Russia is different. Despite Putin’s recent statement to Tucker Carlson that Russia is now, like the West, ‘bourgeois,’ this is evidently not true. A bourgeois population sees everything in terms of interests, especially interests that bring comfort. But Russians today are becoming once again philosophers, which means that they are willing to accept pain rather than accept as ‘true’ something they know to be false. This might be considered Russia’s own ‘revolution of dignity.’

Today’s Russians, therefore, will be unimpressed if American and E.U. diplomats come to them with a peace agreement, saying, ‘sign here, this time we will observe all our promises.’ Why will they be unimpressed? Because Russians have a memory. They recall that the Minsk II agreements, despite having been duly accepted by their ‘Western partners’ and even made subject to international law via the UN Security Council, were subsequently not only not observed; as we later learned from no less a personage than Angela Merkel, there had never even been any intention to observe them. This has since been publicly admitted by both the European and Ukrainian signatories of the Minsk agreements.

This latter point, shocking as it is, demonstrates how far Western ‘rationality’ has degraded since its birth in the Enlightenment, and this despite the West’s frequent efforts to justify itself by reference to its glorious founding in the Enlightenment rationality of, in particular, Immanuel Kant. Whatever there may be that is questionable in Kantian epistemology, there was nonetheless much that is of value in Kant’s practical ethics. We may recall, for example, that in article 1 of Kant’s famous essay on the topic of peace, the philosopher states that no peace treaty can be regarded as valid if made with the secret reservation of material for a future war. Well, in the Ukraine case, this was precisely what happened, although the ‘material for a future war’ was sent to Ukraine by its Western partners for the most part after their signing of the Minsk peace agreements. As for Kant’s article of peace number 6 — forbidding the use of assassins and treachery, or otherwise engaging in actions that “would make mutual confidence impossible in a subsequent state of peace,” it suffices to recall the assassinations of a number of Russian civilians and journalists by agents of Ukrainian intelligence (acts not yet condemned by the U.S. side); Ukraine’s so-called Peacekeeper (Mirotvorets) hit list (not yet condemned by the U.S. side); the never honestly investigated Nord Stream pipeline explosions – and, nota bene, this is very far from being a complete list – to realize how thoroughly the West has rejected its own Kantian inheritance of rationality and morality. Finally: Kant famously taught that it is always immoral to treat others as a mere means to one’s own ends, and yet that is precisely how the U.S. has treated Ukraine: as an object to be used to ‘kill Russians’ in a proxy war, and as a means to teach distant China a lesson.

If this discussion were happening in the usual U.S. media space, it would be at this point that the counterarguments, like an avalanche, would begin to rain down about the evil of the Russian side. The historical record would be appealed to so as to illustrate the thuggish behavior and perfidy of the Russian president in particular. Some of these narratives would be true. Has Putin sometimes displayed thuggishness? No doubt he has – as have U.S. leaders, and their counterparts in England, Germany and France.

All sides can play this game, which literally has no end, of pointing out the other side’s past perfidy, while ignoring one’s own. History can only become a constructive aspect of a diplomatic process if the standards of truthfulness are sufficiently present as to allow for a shared reality. In the ideal case, the warring sides would come to recognize that all are to blame, even if not equally. The important thing is that all participants begin to see the often tragic nature of past historical choices and gain thereby at least some modicum of empathy for the other side. The transformative power of the historical perspective so understood – understood, in other words, as tragedy — is the topic of Nicolai Petro’s extremely insightful The Tragedy of Ukraine.

At present, U.S. officialdom and mainstream media, implausibly assign all the blame for the Ukraine war to the Russian side (Russia’s ‘unprovoked invasion’). Still worse, the U.S. side holds fast to a narrative about Russia that, in a number of important respects, has no basis in reality at all. For example, that Russia ‘hacked the 2016 American election,’ even though there is no evidence for it. Or that Russia turned President Donald Trump into its helpless sock puppet, despite Robert Muller’s two-year long investigation failing to present any evidence of it. Nor does the historical record support it.

To be sure, Russia’s own historical narratives, at the official level, are also often unconducive to fruitful dialogue. For example, it is true that during WWII many Ukrainians, in the wake of the horrors of collectivization, faced a tragic choice between evils which, at the time, may have been hard for many to assess – which is not to make excuses for those who actively participated in Nazi war crimes. Russian historical narratives become self-serving and alienating to the extent that they fail to acknowledge the tragedy of Ukraine in the 1930s and 1940s.

What is to be done?

The most fundamental question is rarely what we will do; more often it has to do with what we are. In the case of the United States, it has long since become obvious that we are no longer very serious. What must we do to become serious? We need to accept that reality is firstly something given, before it is created (by us). Only a reality that is accepted as given – not manufactured — can be a shared reality, and therefore become the material for forging a successful diplomatic settlement. Only by making clear that we accept reality – in other words, by being truthful – can we begin to earn the trust of the other side.

Such a return to reality will be an arduous task. In the U.S. and in E.U. states, it will likely require a fundamental rethinking of educational systems and curricula. It will necessitate finding some very different criteria than presently in use for selecting our key civil servants and elected officials. (One does not have to be a Simone Weil to realize the pervasive, and pervasively corrupting influence of money in the American selection process and on American culture and civil society more generally.)

Unfortunately, such a process of reform might last a generation, assuming it is ever embarked on at all — and yet the dangers of leaving the conflict between the U.S. and Russia unresolved do not countenance such delay. Though the following measures will clearly be insufficient to effect a full cure, they might at least jump-start our moribund diplomatic process by beginning to restore trust:

Stop demonizing Russia. Stop denying to Russians the right to define their own sense of who they are; stop insisting that Russia is not legitimate until and unless it accepts American values and sense of what is ethical. Questions of gender, for example, should be viewed as something that each culture can best define for itself. This would represent a return to the ‘live and let live’ version of liberalism for which the U.S., in former times, was admired even by many Russians. Russians will never accept the current iteration of American liberalism, which illiberally dictates: ‘live as we do.’
The U.S. government, in some official capacity, should publicly admit that the Russiagate scandal had no sufficient basis in fact and should hold those government officials who manufactured it to account. U.S. representatives should commit, henceforth, to contradicting any media stories that continue to make use of that narrative, and they themselves should promise to stop making use of it as a means of demonizing Russia, and stop treating Russia as an untrustworthy state for what was entirely (except to a trivial extent) a U.S. – manufactured narrative.
It hardly seems plausible, in the near term, that the U.S. side will admit to having sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines, even though no one has come up with a more plausible explanation of what happened than Sy Hersh. It would be easier, and therefore more likely to take place (granted, this is still most unlikely) for the U.S. to offer, using its own financing, to collaboratively restore the destroyed pipelines and to not object to the restoration of Russian sales of gas to Germany and Europe. This might have the long-term beneficial effect of reviving the German economy and not thereby creating the danger that an angry and impoverished German populace eventually grow tired altogether of its relationship with the United States. Of course, ideally, we would see a genuinely neutral, professional and open investigation of the Nord Stream incident in which experts from all sides, including Russia, would have access to all the evidence.
Commit to abandoning, immediately, the politicization of international sports, including the Olympics, and commit to never again preventing Russian sports teams from participating, and under their own flag. Even better: apologize for having done so in the past.
I agree with George Beebe and Anatol Lieven (who at least hint at this outcome) that a final settlement with Russia over Ukraine will entail the acceptance by the West that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO. This is a necessary but not a sufficient requirement, at least from the Russian perspective. The Russian side will insist that not only will Ukraine never be a de jure member of NATO, neither can it ever be a de facto member, as it was already becoming in the years prior to the outbreak of hostilities, given Ukraine’s arming by the U.S., its participation in exercises with NATO troops, the placement of advanced U.S. weapons systems within Ukraine and the planned expansion of those systems to ever more sophisticated ones.

Right up to the torpedoed (by the U.S. and England) peace negotiations in Istanbul in April 2022, Russia repeatedly declared its willingness to accept a neutral and independent Ukraine. For the Russian Federation to be willing today to accept such a neutral and independent Ukraine, the U.S. must first take decisive steps to restore trust. Otherwise, negotiations, even if started, will prove fruitless; the war will continue, tens or even hundreds of thousands of soldiers will die, and in the end, as now seems almost certain, the Russian side will impose its own, very different terms.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/03/pau ... e-ukraine/

Gotta take issue with " the tragedy of Ukraine in the 1930s and 1940s. " Yes, collectivation could be tough, but without such methods would the USSR have survived the Nazi onslaught? Doubtful. A tragedy for the kulaks, well tough shit.

*******

Victoria Nuland resigns: what can this mean for U.S. policy on Ukraine?
March 5, 2024

In this business of geopolitical analysis, there is no room for stubborn insistence on consistency of message or false pride. Indeed, when the inputs change in a cardinal manner, I have no hesitation whatsoever to turn away from what I said yesterday.

The latest news is that Victoria Nuland has resigned from the State Department where her official rank was number 3 but where she was very influential in the most damaging way for formulation of U.S. policy on the country’s idée fixe of the past decade: Russia, Russia, Russia. Let us remember that Nuland was the guiding spirit of the Maidan who distributed donuts on Independence Square in Kiev to the idealistic youths who sought the overthrow of the legitimate elected president Yanukovich. As we know from leaked telephone conversations, in February 2014, Nuland conspired with U.S. ambassador in Kiev Geoffrey Pyatt for selection of the new government in Kiev from among Opposition leaders following the U.S. backed coup d’etat.

Though out of office during the Trump years, she stormed back following Biden’s inauguration. There is no question that as an intellectual force she was head and shoulders over her nominal boss, Antony Blinken, and that she stood behind every escalation in U.S. and Allied participation in the proxy war being fought in Ukraine. The idea of sending long-range cruise missiles to Kiev in order to strike far into the Russian heartland, now being debated both in the USA and in Germany, was something Nuland was promoting tooth and nail a year ago.

For these reasons, her departure at this very moment prompts me to revise by 180 degrees (no, Annalena, not by 360 degrees) what I said yesterday about the possible U.S. role in the Bundeswehr plot to embarrass Scholz over his reluctance to ship Germany’s Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

In point of fact, one reader contacted me yesterday to suggest that the very same facts that I laid out as pointing to U.S. efforts to replace the cautious chancellor Scholz by the all-in Russia-hater Pistorius could just as easily point to U.S. efforts to get rid of Pistorius and his war crazy generals lest Europe and the world head straight to nuclear confrontation with Russia.

We still have to wait and see whether Scholz will fire Pistorious or at least fire the rogue generals. But the departure of Nuland at just this minute gives us reason to hope that the Biden administration is drawing back from its reckless adventurism in Ukraine.

A touching note and possibly a straw in the wind is the last paragraph in the Associated Press article on the departure of Nuland which tells us: “Nuland will be replaced temporarily as under secretary by another career diplomat, John Bass, a former ambassador to Afghanistan, who oversaw the U.S. withdrawal from the country.” Indeed, let us hope that Bass will also be the fellow who oversees the U.S. withdrawal from Ukraine.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/03/05/ ... n-ukraine/

******

Well, Well, Well...

... I just spoke to Ania, like 10 minutes ago.



But as we all know Nuland abdicated and this is the first and most significant sign of reality dawning on the illiterate and incompetent D.C. swamp. But the whole thing was in the making for weeks now. You see, that just proves my point--Nuland and her neocon cabal stuffed with "Russian experts" with such degrees as political science or journalism (that means not having systematic education) had only one thing going for them--their visceral hatred of Russia and Russian people supported by BS geopolitical theories from second-rate Anglo-American scholarship. Obviously, studying warfare is much harder than studying the BS they teach in Georgetown or Harvard in "international relations" or "government". And here is the result--they went against people who would eat them all for breakfast. But impotent rage of London and D.C. is understandable.
So, what's left for them is what the only thing they can do--sabotage, diversionary actions, pure terrorism, killing Skripal's cat et al. Sergei Naryshkin on record today.

МОСКВА, 5 мар — РИА Новости. США и Великобритания участвуют в подготовке сил специальных операций для подрывной работы против России, заявил директор Службы внешней разведки Сергей Нарышкин в эксклюзивном интервью для "Соловьев Live", его фрагменты показали в эфире телеканала "Россия 1". "Американцы, особенно британцы участвовали и участвуют в подготовке сил специальных операций и сотрудников спецслужб для ведения подрывной работы против нашей страны", — сказал он. Так, по словам главы ведомства, газопроводы "Северный поток" и "Северный поток — 2" взорвали англосаксы. Что касается США, то они занимаются созданием широкой разведывательной сети как на территории Украины, так и в других странах, в том числе и в тех, которые граничат с российской территорией, отметил Нарышкин. "То, что американские разведывательные службы участвовали в подготовке и переподготовке сотрудников спецслужб Украины, — очевидный факт", — добавил Нарышкин.

Translation: MOSCOW, March 5 – RIA Novosti. The United States and Great Britain are participating in the training of special operations forces for subversive work against Russia, said the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, in an exclusive interview for Solovyov Live, fragments of which were shown on the Rossiya 1 TV channel. “The Americans, especially the British, participated and are participating in the training of special operations forces and intelligence officers to conduct subversive work against our country,” he said. Thus, according to the head of the department, the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines were blown up by the Anglo-Saxons. As for the United States, they are creating a wide intelligence network both on the territory of Ukraine and in other countries, including those that border Russian territory, Naryshkin noted. “The fact that American intelligence services participated in the training and retraining of Ukrainian intelligence officers is an obvious fact,” Naryshkin added.

So predictable, so trivial, even boring. The attempts of London to parade itself as a meaningful geopolitical player are laughable. The city of London better invest into sanitation and street maintenance than into futile attempts at supporting remnants of geopolitical significance--this is out of UK's league, simple as that. Russia is ready. So, stay tuned.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/03 ... -well.html

*****

Ukraine SitRep: The Slow Grind - New Bombs - Calling For Talks

Stephen Bryan continues with his valuable summaries of the situation in Ukraine:

A number of counterattacks by the Ukrainians, in some cases using reserve forces, have taken place along the line of contact. While reports are not yet complete, it appears that all the Ukrainian attempts to roll back Russian gains have failed, with the possible exception of Robotyne.
Meanwhile the Russians have either taken or will soon take a number of villages including Ivaniska, Bilohorivka, Berdichev, Pobjeda and Novomikhailovka.

Since February 28, the Russians have destroyed three Abrams tanks. The most recent was knocked out on March 4 by an anti-tank missile, probably a Russian Kornet. The first two Abramses were hit by low-cost Russian drones carrying RPG-7 warheads.


The Russian forces continue with their slow grind all over the front. Ukrainian losses have been increasing. Over the last two weeks the reported daily number of killed and wounded more often exceeded 1,000 than not.

The slow grind, and no big arrow movements, is a carefully calculated way of operation. As one observer remarked:

The longer this [slow grind] goes on the greater the chances of the Euros doing something stupid. Or your neocons. We’re already directly responsible for the shelling of a nuclear power station and it was only Shoigu phoning around the Foreign Ministers that put paid to the Ukrainians fooling around with dirty bombs.
So it’s a balance. The Russians move too fast and there’s a danger they’ll set the psychos in Washington and Berlin/Brussels/Westminster off. Too slow and it gives the psychos more scope for such tricks. All one can do is hope the Russians get the balance right.


Today's report by the Russian Ministry of Defense mentioned an unusual aerial target:

Over the past 24 hours, air defence units shot down nine U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles and one French-made AASM Hammer guided aerial bomb.

This is the first time that an AASM Hammer bomb were mentioned in these reports. These are rocket assisted glide bombs in the 250 kilogram class with a reach of more than 70 kilometer beyond the drop off point. France had promised to deliver 50 of these per month. There have been no reports I know of that Ukrainian Soviet era air force jets have been adapted to release these bombs. But the other potential carriers are well known:

The current main AASM operator is Rafale, there were also trial launches performed by the F-16, Mirage 2000, and the Mirage F1 which was additionally equipped with Hasas (Hammer Stand Alone System). Also, India used to buy these bombs in 2020 to integrate with Tejas.

The shot down by Russian air defenses of an AASM Hammer may well mean that the long announced F-16 jets are now up in the Ukrainian air. If that is the case it will not be long before the Russian air forces will report the first F-16 as casualty.

Those few French bombs will not help. Russia can lob hundreds of its own bombs per day from the many platforms it uses. Ukraine is restricted by the small number of delivery vehicles it has as well as their exposure to counterattacks.

Down on the ground, the only place that counts, the Ukrainian lines are weakening by the day. As Bryen remarks:

Ukraine counterattacked the Russians rather than falling back to new defense lines for the simple reason that there were no pre-prepared fortifications for their army even though they were supposed to have been built. This has created a significant controversy and there are hints that the money for the materials needed for the fortifications was siphoned off (stolen). Corruption in Ukraine is rampant and despite some efforts to curtail it, it is growing.

As Ukraine’s situation deteriorates, get-rich-quick and exit schemes are growing.


A recent CNN report also emphasizes the issue. New defense lines get budgets and are announced. But months later the soldiers notice that that those lines are just marks on a map and that no stone has been moved to create them.

It should by now be obvious to anyone that Ukraine has lost the war and that Russia is winning the contest. The recent panic actions by various European leaders are pointing to that conclusion.

Saner heads are acknowledging the facts and are calling for talks:

How to Pave the Way for Diplomacy to End the War in Ukraine - Charap, Shapiro / Foreign Affairs, Mar 5 2024

The challenge of discerning an adversary’s intentions is nearly impossible in the absence of dialogue. Therefore, it is necessary to open channels of communication so as to be in a position to take advantage of the opportunity to pursue peace when that opportunity comes.
...
Yet mutual mistrust between belligerents is a feature of every war, and thus of every negotiation that ended those wars. If trust were a prerequisite for communicating, belligerents would never start talking. The parties can and should begin talking despite their mutual mistrust.
...
Getting to the table will not be easy, but the alternative is an endless, grinding war that no side claims to want and both sides lose by continuing to fight.


I can not imagine that the current U.S. administration will go for talks with Moscow. It is already in the middle of an election campaign and any leaks about talks with Moscow would destroy its anti-Russia strategy. As the U.S. is now leaving it to Europe to pay the bill for the misadventure in Ukraine it would surely be helpful if some European negotiators could jump in.

Unfortunately I fail to see any European leader who might be willing or able to do so.

Posted by b on March 6, 2024 at 16:10 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/03/u ... .html#more
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10769
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Mar 07, 2024 12:52 pm

Ammunition, personnel, financing
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 03/07/2024

Image

“For the Ukrainian troops forced to make the risky retreat under bombs, the reason was clear: there was not enough ammunition,” The New York Times wrote yesterday to describe the situation of the soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who had to flee Avdeevka before the Russian advance, which in recent days was already unstoppable for Ukraine. The intensive use of aviation and air superiority had managed to overcome the initial difficulties of approaching the city and the fate of the city was written. Instead of fighting for weeks in an already lost battle, as Syrsky did want to do in Artyomovsk, the now commander-in-chief gave the order to withdraw. By then, at least according to rumors in the Ukrainian press, several units had decided on their own to leave the city. The scenario from eight years ago in Debaltsevo was thus repeated. At the time, the press respected the Ukrainian story and accepted Poroshenko's words of “an orderly and planned withdrawal.” On this occasion, two of the most important media outlets in the United States, The New York Times and The Washington Post, have published a narrative that clashes head-on with the pristine withdrawal operation that Ukraine has wanted to convey to the public. “The fall of the city, when it finally occurred, was brutal and rapid. The soldiers fought for their lives. Many did not make it.” The American media estimate the number of soldiers lost at one thousand - including wounded, dead and captured - just in the retreat on the last day of the battle.

“It was the lack of ammunition,” says one of the soldiers interviewed by The New York Times . In his account, Ukrainian troops would have been able to maintain control of the city by attacking Russian supply and logistics lines and preventing the arrival of reserves. With more weapons, it is likely that Ukraine could have prolonged, as it did at Artyomovsk, the battle for Avdeevka, but it does not take great military experience to know that artillery was not going to compensate for the way in which Ukraine's complete air superiority Russia was decisive in this fight. However, the justification for the lack of artillery is the one that best adapts to the needs of current Ukrainian discourse, which generally focuses its argument on a short list of causes that explains all the evils of each specific moment. When European countries struggle to find markets in which to acquire the huge quantities of projectiles that Ukraine requires in order to continue the war, the lack of ammunition is the perfect reasoning to explain the defeat.

“We had 20 in the unit. There are eight left,” says another soldier, describing his weeks in Avdeevka in the initial phase of the battle, when the lack of ammunition was not yet the center of the agenda. Of the 86 soldiers in the unit, 28 are still active, he adds as quoted by The New York Times , which recalls that there are no official casualty figures. There is also no interest on the part of the Western media to estimate the level of personnel losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a factor that must be taken into account to explain the situation in which Ukrainian troops currently find themselves in the ground war. The lack of personnel is the second of the major causes of Ukrainian problems according to its Government. Of course, this argument tends to be poorly developed. Unlike in the case of the alleged lack of ammunition, where there is a clear culprit, the West, the shortage of human resources has causes that Zelensky's team cannot afford to admit.

The reality is that Ukraine went from having a numerical superiority that made it impossible for Russia to meet its objectives in 2022 to suffering inferiority and appealing to the need to recruit another half a million men for the army. Ukraine, which alleges that Russian casualties exceed Ukrainian casualties by a ratio of 7:1, has not been able to explain this need for recruitment taking into account the continuous mobilization it has been carrying out since February 2022. Denying its own casualties and exaggerating those of others is part of the propaganda of any war, but it does not explain the shortage of personnel reported by all types of Ukrainian units.

To alleviate these shortcomings whose cause - the high casualties that a war of the current intensity necessarily causes - Ukraine refuses to admit, the Ukrainian Government appealed to the recruitment of any man of military age, including those refugees in the European Union. With increasing difficulties in mobilizing the population that has remained in the country and realizing that life expectancy on the front , the very first line, can be just a few minutes, Ukraine spent weeks demanding that refugees fulfill their civic duty. In several speeches, Zelensky demanded the return of men of military age and people capable of working. As the Ukrainian president has made clear in recent months, citizenship is equivalent to paying taxes to maintain the economy and giving one's life for the country on the front lines.

In this context, Volodymyr Zelensky's statements a few weeks ago in which he took advantage of one of the right's arguments - the social aid received by refugees - to take advantage of the refugee population in the European Union went absolutely unnoticed. The Ukrainian leader's statements coincided with the proposals of several of the countries that have welcomed refugees to favor the voluntary return of people to Ukraine. Of white race, Christian religion and a culture close enough to that of the receiving countries, Ukrainian refugees have not suffered the xenophobia and racism that other groups do suffer. And although the Ukrainian population has enjoyed treatment that refugees from other war conflicts do not receive, the economic cost involved accumulates and the enthusiasm for supporting that population declines.

“In Germany's 2024 budget, some €6 billion ($6.5 billion) has been allocated to Ukrainian refugees who can work. Each adult registered in an employment office will receive a subsidy of 563 euros per month. Of the approximately 1.1 million Ukrainian refugees in Germany, about 700,000 are registered. The rest are mainly children and people of retirement age, who receive help from other sources,” Deutsche Welle reported last month . In this context, Zelensky wanted to implicitly appeal to an argument usually used by the extreme right, that the foreign population takes advantage of social aid to obtain that income. “If the Government wants to help Ukrainians, it is admirable; for example, someone who has left the country to go to Germany and lives there, receiving money from them. And we thank you for supporting our citizens,” Zelensky told the German press and later introduced the shadow of doubt. “But sometimes, people receive help from both [their new country of residence] and [Ukraine]. Well, that happens. I do not speak specifically about Ukrainians in Germany, but rather outline general ideas,” he proclaimed with an argument that could have been made by any of the leaders of the European far-right.

Accustomed to simple solutions to complex problems, Zelensky quickly resolved the issue. “I have always said that it would be much better for us if Germany supported the Ukrainians by contributing money to the Ukrainian budget. So Ukraine would redistribute this money depending on where this person is located,” he explained. Taking into account that Kiev was able to deny, as a saving measure for the State, its pensions to the population of Donbass, it is not difficult to imagine that the proposal - which evidently did not receive any type of support from Germany - has a clear fundraising nuance. Zelensky's complaint is that the assistance received by Ukrainian refugees in Western countries is counted in the totals contributed by each of the countries and these amounts, which increase the cost for Western states, cannot be used by Ukraine.

"In the end, our money has left and the European money has stayed where the Ukrainian citizens stayed, outside of Ukrainian territory," the president lamented. “When the world talks about financial aid to Ukrainians, I would like to remind them where most of the money ends up,” he said.

Ammunition, personnel and financing are the three elements whose shortage is constantly touted in Ukraine today. All of them must come from the West, which must supply the ammunition, encourage the return of refugees, guarantee a constant flow of financing and even share with the State what is planned for the survival of the refugee population.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/03/07/29286/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of March 6, 2024) | The main thing:

- the Russian Armed Forces repelled three counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of ​​the settlements of Sinkovka and Terny in the Kupyansk direction;

- The Vostok group has improved the tactical situation in the South Donetsk direction;

- Units of the Western Group of Forces improved the tactical situation in the Kupyansk direction within 24 hours, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to 165 military personnel;

- Russian air defense shot down nine HIMARS missiles in one day;

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 210 military personnel and 2 tanks in a day in the South Donetsk direction;

- The Russian Armed Forces repelled 3 attacks and 9 counterattacks in the Avdeevsky direction per day;

- The total losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Avdeevka direction amounted to up to 460 military personnel, 2 tanks, one of which is Abrams, a Buk air defense system, 4 infantry fighting vehicles;

- The Russian Ministry of Defense for the first time reported the destruction of a French-made AASM Hammer guided aerial bomb in the Northern Military District zone;

- The Russian Armed Forces in the Donetsk direction occupied more advantageous positions;

- The Russian Armed Forces hit Ukrainian Armed Forces aircraft at airfields in the Dnepropetrovsk and Khmelnitsky regions.

▫️In the South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok group of forces, as a result of active actions, improved the tactical situation and inflicted fire damage on enemy personnel and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Mirnoye and Ugledar of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to up to 210 military personnel, two tanks, three cars, a launcher for the Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile system , as well as an ammunition depot.

▫️In the Kherson direction, units of the Dnepr group of troops defeated the manpower and equipment of the 118th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 126th technical defense brigade and the 23rd brigade of the National Guard in the areas of the settlements of Rabotino, Verbovoye of the Zaporozhye region, Tokarevka, Sadovoye of the Kherson region and Vysshetarasovka Dnepropetrovsk region.

Enemy losses amounted to up to 30 military personnel and two vehicles.

▫️Operational-tactical aviation , unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit: aviation equipment, aviation ammunition and fuel depots at the Lozovatka airfields in the Dnepropetrovsk region and Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnitsky region, the ammunition depot of the operational-tactical group "Donetsk" , manpower and military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 113 regions.

▫️During the day, air defense systems shot down nine rockets from the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system made in the United States, as well as an AASM “Hammer” guided aerial bomb made in France. In addition, 135 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed, including in the areas of the settlements of Sladkoe, Pavlovka, Signalnoe, Verkhnetoretskoe, Orlinskoe of the Donetsk People's Republic, Golikovo, Chervonopopovka, Novodruzhesk of the Lugansk People's Republic, Mirnoe, Magedovo, Shevchenkovo ​​and Novoe of the Zaporozhye region.

▫️In total , since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 576 aircraft, 267 helicopters, 14,440 unmanned aerial vehicles, 481 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,377 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,234 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 8,309 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 19,415 units of special military vehicles. (....)

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Donbass liberation: Avdeyevka has fallen!

Even the western spinmeisters are waking up to the fact that nothing can prevent a Russian victory now.
Lalkar writers

Tuesday 5 March 2024

Image
The liberation of Avdeyevka is a pivotal moment in the defence of the Donbass. Not only was the town one of the most heavily fortified in Nato’s Fortress Ukraine, but it has been used for ten years as a base for bombing the civilians of nearby Donetsk.

Russian forces are now in full control over the city of Avdeyevka whilst thousands of Ukrainian troops remain there trapped in isolated pockets. Their command structure has broken down and there is little effective communication between units.

In an attempt to turn this around, the fascist Azov brigade was sent in to clear the mess but succeeded only in becoming part of the mess themselves. They were last heard of “firing at 360 degrees” – army-speak for being surrounded on all sides and hoping for the best.

It is a mark of how bad the situation is for the Kiev junta that the mainstream media are not even trying to cover up the seriousness of this development. The capture of Avdeyevka is the biggest Russian advance since taking Bakhmut last May and opens the way to full control of the entire Donbass.

News of this great Russian victory reached the Munich security conference on Saturday 17 February, just in time to rub the noses of the collective west in the failure of all their regime-change hopes. Needless to say, for the second year running Russia was not invited to this jamboree, but happily found other ways of making her presence felt.

Thieves fall out
The fall of Avdeyevka was preceded in Ukraine by the sacking of one former commander-in-chief and his replacement by a protégé of actor-stooge president Volodymyr Zelensky. This move was preceded by a long period of rumour and counter-rumour, giving ample scope for conspiracy theories and departmental backbiting to weaken and distract the high command when it most needed unity and concentration.

Were it not for the fact that the fate of thousands of lives hangs upon the say-so of these clowns, it would be hard to ignore the comic opera feel to the shenanigans surrounding the summary dismissal of Kiev’s army chief, General Valerii Zaluzhny, and his instant replacement by the commander of armed forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, with everyone briefing against everybody else in full public view and even, it is rumoured, with Zaluzhny initially refusing point blank to accept his sacking.

As with so much else in Ukraine’s public life, the actors in this drama, rather than coming across as political giants joined in a titanic struggle to determine the future of their country, appear rather as historical nonentities trying on their grandfathers’ clothes in the wings.

The departing General Zaluzhny is said to be a popular and influential leader, and one who is not afraid to voice his dissent on occasion. In particular, he has criticised President Zelensky’s conduct of the war against Russia, especially the disastrous failure of the so-called ‘summer offensive’. Conversely, Zelensky blamed Zaluzhny for that same disaster.

According to the Economist: “It is no secret that, as their relationship worsened, the two men also came to differ about what to do on the battlefield. Mr Zelensky and his administration held General Zaluzhny responsible for last year’s failed counteroffensive.

“They wanted the Ukrainian army to prepare for further attacks and had been pressing him to draw up battle plans and to take on the unpopular burden of mobilising more troops. The general rejected their arguments. He observed that his caution after the failure of the initial assault ended up sparing vital troops and equipment.

“He argued that he could not plan for the next counteroffensive unless he knew what resources he had. He said that it is politicians’ responsibility to mobilise society – and he was right.” (The dismissal of Valery Zaluzhny is a crucial new phase in the war, 8 February 2024)

In other words, it seemed that Zaluzhny had exhibited a habit of thinking out loud which threatened fatally to undermine Zelensky’s defiantly rose-tinted view of things. With Zaluzhny gone, his place has been taken by the land forces leader General Syrskyi. Unlike his predecessor, he is said by some to have concentrated on fulfilling whatever mission he was given and not questioning his brief.

He is said to be a close ally of Zelensky, accompanying the president on a number of well-documented visits to the front line. Among the rank-and-file soldiery, though, his reception is not uniformly warm. According to the Financial Times, he was criticised for his “refusal to retreat during the battle of Bakhmut, a fight that saw precious ammunition expended, thousands of troops lost and experienced brigades decimated”.

These enmities had rankled on throughout the war but have now ripped to the surface in consequence of the collapse of Ukraine forces and the increasingly toxic atmosphere of mutual recrimination that this has unleashed.

Switching the top brass may buy Zelensky some time, putting off the evil hour when real decisions have to be made about Ukraine’s future. But pressing on with mobilisation plans will only pile more Ukrainian lives into the meat grinder and do nothing to alter the outcome of the war, merely driving up the death toll and intensifying demoralisation.

Begging the west for more firepower may enable a few more terrorist spectaculars like the drone attacks in the Black Sea, but will likewise do nothing to reshape the war in Kiev’s favour. Sooner or later, Zelensky, or Zelensky’s successor, will be obliged to sue for peace, and it won’t be on the basis of the president’s increasingly hollow assertion that Ukraine will “take back every inch of soil occupied by Russian forces”.

So unignorable is the scale of the military crisis in Ukraine and the desperate efforts to mobilise everything that moves to plug the gaps in the ranks, that even the mainstream press feels obliged to start documenting it. This bleak assessment comes from the Washington Post:

“In interviews across the front line in recent days, nearly a dozen soldiers and commanders told the Washington Post that personnel deficits were their most critical problem now, as Russia has regained the offensive initiative on the battlefield and is stepping up its attacks.

“One battalion commander in a mechanised brigade fighting in eastern Ukraine said that his unit currently has fewer than 40 infantry troops – the soldiers deployed in frontline trenches who hold off Russian assaults. A fully equipped battalion would have more than 200, the commander said.

“Under normal circumstances a mechanised battalion is supposed to hold a 3km-long frontline. With only 40 infantry soldiers available that becomes an impossible task. The further deterioration from that depleted state will be rapid.

“Oleksandr, a battalion commander, said the companies in his unit on average are staffed at about 35 percent of what they should be. A second battalion commander from an assault brigade said that is typical for units that carry out combat tasks.

“Asked how many new soldiers he has received – not including those who have returned after injuries – Oleksandr said his battalion was sent five people over the past five months. He and other commanders said the new recruits tend to be poorly trained, creating a dilemma about whether to send someone immediately onto the battlefield because reinforcements are needed so badly, even though they are likely to get injured or killed because they lack the knowhow.

“‘The basis of everything is the lack of people,’ Oleksandr said.

“‘Where are we going? I don’t know,’ he added. ‘There’s no positive outlook. Absolutely none. It’s going to end in a lot of death, a global failure. And most likely, I think, the front will collapse somewhere like it did for the enemy in 2022, in the Kharkiv region.’

“The new Ukrainian mobilisation law, which is supposed to refill the army with fresh bodies, is still creeping through the Ukrainian parliament. It will likely come into force only by April. The first new troops conscripted under it will take until July to be combat capable. One wonders if the current Ukrainian army can hold that long.” (Frontline Ukrainian infantry units report acute shortage of soldiers by Isabelle Khurshudyan and Anastacia Galouchka, 8 February 2024)

Standing with Ukraine?
Back in Washington, where the whole Ukraine project was dreamed up in the first place, Congress is dragging its collective feet over if or when its latest military aid package to the Kiev junta will be ratified. Though in theory it is the Republicans who are holding everything up and the ruling Democrats who are getting frustrated in their efforts to get urgent military aid to Ukraine, in practice disillusion with the whole project is rife on both sides of the hall.

With Donald Trump, fresh from victory in the Republican party caucuses in Nevada, now setting his sights on a second term as US president, his open scepticism about international alliances like Nato and the European Union (let alone the United Nations and Unrwa) sends a clear signal as to what kind of long-term support, if any, the Kiev clique can expect to get from a Trump presidency.

Whilst Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg continues to intone dutifully the mantra that “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” Trump nonchalantly blows the gaffe on the whole Nato protection racket, telling reluctant payers he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” if they failed to hand over two percent of their GDP, saying: “I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You’ve got to pay. You’ve got to pay your bills.”

While Jens Stoltenberg struggles to keep the door ajar for Ukraine’s Nato candidacy, Trump is busy undermining whatever confidence remains in the institution. In these circumstances, Stoltenberg’s avowed expectation that “regardless of who wins the presidential election the US will remain a strong and committed Nato ally” will be greeted with hollow laughter. (Donald Trump says Russia can do what it wants to Nato allies who pay too little by James Politi, Lauren Fedor and Henry Foy, Financial Times, 18 February 2024)

https://thecommunists.org/2024/03/05/ne ... as-fallen/

******

Ukraine SitRep: The Slow Grind - New Bombs - Calling For Talks

Stephen Bryan continues with his valuable summaries of the situation in Ukraine:

A number of counterattacks by the Ukrainians, in some cases using reserve forces, have taken place along the line of contact. While reports are not yet complete, it appears that all the Ukrainian attempts to roll back Russian gains have failed, with the possible exception of Robotyne.
Meanwhile the Russians have either taken or will soon take a number of villages including Ivaniska, Bilohorivka, Berdichev, Pobjeda and Novomikhailovka.

Since February 28, the Russians have destroyed three Abrams tanks. The most recent was knocked out on March 4 by an anti-tank missile, probably a Russian Kornet. The first two Abramses were hit by low-cost Russian drones carrying RPG-7 warheads.


The Russian forces continue with their slow grind all over the front. Ukrainian losses have been increasing. Over the last two weeks the reported daily number of killed and wounded more often exceeded 1,000 than not.

The slow grind, and no big arrow movements, is a carefully calculated way of operation. As one observer remarked:

The longer this [slow grind] goes on the greater the chances of the Euros doing something stupid. Or your neocons. We’re already directly responsible for the shelling of a nuclear power station and it was only Shoigu phoning around the Foreign Ministers that put paid to the Ukrainians fooling around with dirty bombs.
So it’s a balance. The Russians move too fast and there’s a danger they’ll set the psychos in Washington and Berlin/Brussels/Westminster off. Too slow and it gives the psychos more scope for such tricks. All one can do is hope the Russians get the balance right.


Today's report by the Russian Ministry of Defense mentioned an unusual aerial target:

[]Over the past 24 hours, air defence units shot down nine U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles and one French-made AASM Hammer guided aerial bomb.[/i]

This is the first time that an AASM Hammer bomb were mentioned in these reports. These are rocket assisted glide bombs in the 250 kilogram class with a reach of more than 70 kilometer beyond the drop off point. France had promised to deliver 50 of these per month. There have been no reports I know of that Ukrainian Soviet era air force jets have been adapted to release these bombs. But the other potential carriers are well known:

The current main AASM operator is Rafale, there were also trial launches performed by the F-16, Mirage 2000, and the Mirage F1 which was additionally equipped with Hasas (Hammer Stand Alone System). Also, India used to buy these bombs in 2020 to integrate with Tejas.

The shot down by Russian air defenses of an AASM Hammer may well mean that the long announced F-16 jets are now up in the Ukrainian air. If that is the case it will not be long before the Russian air forces will report the first F-16 as casualty.

Those few French bombs will not help. Russia can lob hundreds of its own bombs per day from the many platforms it uses. Ukraine is restricted by the small number of delivery vehicles it has as well as their exposure to counterattacks.

Down on the ground, the only place that counts, the Ukrainian lines are weakening by the day. As Bryen remarks:

Ukraine counterattacked the Russians rather than falling back to new defense lines for the simple reason that there were no pre-prepared fortifications for their army even though they were supposed to have been built. This has created a significant controversy and there are hints that the money for the materials needed for the fortifications was siphoned off (stolen). Corruption in Ukraine is rampant and despite some efforts to curtail it, it is growing.
As Ukraine’s situation deteriorates, get-rich-quick and exit schemes are growing.


A recent CNN report also emphasizes the issue. New defense lines get budgets and are announced. But months later the soldiers notice that that those lines are just marks on a map and that no stone has been moved to create them.

It should by now be obvious to anyone that Ukraine has lost the war and that Russia is winning the contest. The recent panic actions by various European leaders are pointing to that conclusion.

Saner heads are acknowledging the facts and are calling for talks:

How to Pave the Way for Diplomacy to End the War in Ukraine - Charap, Shapiro / Foreign Affairs, Mar 5 2024

The challenge of discerning an adversary’s intentions is nearly impossible in the absence of dialogue. Therefore, it is necessary to open channels of communication so as to be in a position to take advantage of the opportunity to pursue peace when that opportunity comes.
...
Yet mutual mistrust between belligerents is a feature of every war, and thus of every negotiation that ended those wars. If trust were a prerequisite for communicating, belligerents would never start talking. The parties can and should begin talking despite their mutual mistrust.
...
Getting to the table will not be easy, but the alternative is an endless, grinding war that no side claims to want and both sides lose by continuing to fight.


I can not imagine that the current U.S. administration will go for talks with Moscow. It is already in the middle of an election campaign and any leaks about talks with Moscow would destroy its anti-Russia strategy. As the U.S. is now leaving it to Europe to pay the bill for the misadventure in Ukraine it would surely be helpful if some European negotiators could jump in.

Unfortunately I fail to see any European leader who might be willing or able to do so.

Posted by b on March 6, 2024 at 16:10 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/03/u ... .html#more

******

Victoria Nuland, Major Force Behind Failed Project Ukraine, Retires Unexpectedly
Posted on March 6, 2024 by Yves Smith

It is a cause for celebration that behind-the-scenes neocon mover-and-shaker Under Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, is retiring at the end of March. Her replacement is Dick Bass, former ambassador to Afghanistan, and like Nuland herself, also a former direct report to Dick Cheney, i.e, another dyed-in-the-wool warmonger. However, Nuland was singularly effective, as proven by her longevity and in serving both parties, with the Trump Administration her only time out of formal power since 1993, when she was chief of staff to Strobe Talbott, then Deputy Secretary of State. As most readers know, she is part of a neocon family enterprise, married to Robert Kagan and the sister in law of Kimberly Kagan, President of the Institute for the Study of War. From the Wikipedia entry on Robert Kagan:

A co-founder of the neoconservative Project for the New American Century, he is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Kagan has been a foreign policy adviser to U.S. Republican presidential candidates as well as Democratic administrations via the Foreign Affairs Policy Board. He writes a monthly column on world affairs for The Washington Post.

Nuland’s star seemed to start fading almost immediately upon her promotion to the Acting Secretary of State position last summer, which she assumed temporarily through February while retaining her Under Secretary of Political Affairs role. Larry Johnson argues that Under Secretary of Political Affairs role is more powerful since the overseas bureaucracy of the State Department reports to it. And he also points out that there is no other gig for her that would be better, even if she had not put the retirement gloss on her resignation.


Nevertheless, it was the newly-nominally-elevated Nuland that was dispatched to try to rally support from African states to oppose a military coup in Niger, which the US had treated as a linchpin for “democracy” and counter-terrorism operations in the Sahel. Her intervention was an embarrassing bust:



This felt like a portent that her star was fading. But the big story is of the massive backfire of her long-standing campaign to damage Russia, ideally via regime change against Vladimir Putin. Nuland was a visible figure in the 2014 Maidan coup, famously handing out cookies, where a democratically elected but now unpopular President had agreed to early elections…but that was not good enough. President Yanukovich fled Ukraine as his presidential vehicle, en route to Kharviv, was targeted (he was actually on helicopter and proceeded out of the country). He was removed by a non-constitutional process and a new constitution was adopted, again outside the prescribed forms. Confirming that the US had its hands all over this scheme, she and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoff Pyatt, were caught on the notorious “Fuck the EU” recording, discussing who should replace Yanukovich even before the coup was in the crisis phase.

Nuland along with Biden also bragged that the US would be able to make sure NordStream 2 would not go forward if Russia invaded Ukraine. More recently, Nuland asserted that Putin would suffer some “surprises” soon; one has to wonder if that included the plan by the German military (note against the orders of the political leadership) to use Taurus missiles to take out the Kerch Bridge (the generals clearly considered this to be an ineffective use of scarce but powerful weapons and debated hitting other targets). Even though the US press is reporting the German consternation over the security breach of Russia obtaining the recording of the phone meeting, there is also uproar about the military trying to advance an agenda contrary to the official government position of no Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

But even before the possibility that Nuland had her fingers in this scheme, there was another big sign of her diminishing power, a reflection that Project Ukraine was going pear shaped. Nuland made an emergency trip to Kiev when General Zaluzhny was refusing Zelensky’s demand to resign. Recall that Nuland had and presumably still had strong connections to some Banderite power-brokers; Zaluzhny was a hard-core fascist. It’s not clear exactly what she wanted to happen but the optics of this presentation point to a big failure:


She’s outside in an empty square, dressed as a political maven put it “looking like a garbage truck,” with no crowd and bad lighting. This means at a minimum that Zelensky (and perhaps Zaluzhny too) refused to let her use any space in the government buildings to stage her talk. In other words, this was a big diss, yet she insisted on trying to apply porcine maquillage to it.

Some additional commentary:

Image

The only gratifying part of this picture is her life’s work is turning into a heap of ashes in real time. But that’s occurring only at huge human and financial cost.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/03 ... tedly.html

*****

Russia reports increase in terrorist attacks by Ukraine

Image
Meanwhile, Western powers are considering increasing funding to the Ukrainian regime and are even discussing the possibility of sending NATO troops. | Photo: EFE/Archive
Published March 6, 2024 (10 hours 36 minutes ago)

The courts of the Russian Federation, based on evidence, continue to issue sentences against Ukrainian servicemen who have committed serious crimes against civilians.

Russian military forces reported an increase in Ukrainian terrorist attacks against civilians on the border with Russia.

According to the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zaharova, Russia denounces the increase in Ukrainian attacks against civilian populations on the border with Ukraine. These acts are considered terrorist crimes and are attributed to kyiv's revenge after losing the counteroffensive.

The Ukrainian regime, affected by the strategic loss of Atviyenka and frustrated by its inability to confront the advances of the Russian Armed Forces, continues to vent its anger against Russian civilians. The active use of Western-supplied weapons to bomb populated areas in Russia and carry out other terrorist attacks has been observed.



Meanwhile, Western powers are considering increasing financing to the Ukrainian regime and are even discussing the possibility of sending troops from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which could trigger a new world war with catastrophic consequences, the foreign ministry indicated.

The Ukrainian military, backed by NATO, has seen significant growth. In the latest attacks against civilians, on February 26 in the Belgarat region, Ukrainian military fired mortars at the village of Novy Ataviyenka, resulting in two children injured and three civilians killed.

The atrocities perpetrated by the kyiv regime are meticulously documented by law enforcement authorities in Russia, so that those responsible are held accountable for their actions.

The courts of the Russian Federation, based on evidence, continue to issue sentences against Ukrainian servicemen who have committed serious crimes against civilians. Meanwhile, Russian diplomacy urges the international community to condemn these acts, and the Russian Investigative Committee begins criminal proceedings against the military commanders who ordered the attacks against the civilian population.

https://www.telesurtv.net/news/rusia-re ... -0004.html

Google Translator

*****

Ukraine’s Manpower Crisis: No Amount of Money or Aid Can Solve It
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on MARCH 6, 2024
Brian Berletic

Image

Both Ukraine and its Western supporters are raising the alarm over Ukraine’s military manpower shortage and the difficult decisions facing the Ukrainian government in resolving it, if it can be resolved. Ukraine’s manpower crisis represents a growing problem that no amount of Western financial or military aid can remedy, and may represent a point of weakness nothing short of NATO resignation or intervention can address.

Ukrainian publications like the Kyiv Independent in its article, “Ukraine struggles to ramp up mobilization as Russia’s war enters 3rd year,” and Western publications like the Washington Post in its article, “Front-line Ukrainian infantry units report acute shortage of soldiers,” explain how a shortage of soldiers is accelerating the strain on Ukraine’s remaining forces, compounding their difficulties along the line of contact. The articles also note the difficulty of additional mobilizations, which would require calling up segments of the population previously exempted from military service, and the social and political divisions such a mobilization would create.

One of Many Growing Problems

With the conflict in Ukraine entering its third year, Ukraine and its Western sponsors are increasingly admitting to shortcomings in terms of their support for Ukraine. This includes shipments of both arms and ammunition. While the collective West’s media insists these shortcomings are the result of political deadlock in the US Congress over funding, these shortcomings are the result of deeper problems much more difficult to address.

A US Department of Defense National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) report not only admits that the US military industrial base is incapable of producing the amount of arms and ammunition Ukraine requires on the battlefield, but that systemic problems will prevent the US from doing so anytime in the foreseeable future.

The US Department of Defense also recently admitted that it failed to create a sustainment strategy for US weapon systems sent to Ukraine, including the Patriot air defense system, the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, the Stryker armored vehicle, and the M1 Abrams main battle tank. Without such a strategy, the press release admitted, “the Ukrainians would not be capable of maintaining these weapon systems.”

Together, these factors constitute significant obstacles for Ukraine and its Western sponsors as the current conflict grinds on, the additional manpower crisis complicates matters even further.

The Challenge of Building Brigades

Despite recent claims from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine has only lost 31,000 soldiers since February 2022 (the New York Times reports US officials placing the number closer to 70,000 and Russia’s Ministry of Defense places the number at 444,000), urgent efforts to mobilize hundreds of thousands of additional soldiers, as reported by Reuters, betray the true scope of Ukrainian losses.

Ukraine’s losses are so extensive that its problems go far beyond just mobilizing enough soldiers to maintain troop levels along the line of contact. Ukraine must reconstitute entire military units up to the brigade level.

Building or rebuilding brigades of around 4,000 soldiers each began in 2022 and continued into 2023 ahead of Ukraine’s failed summer-fall offensive. According to Reuters, up to 9 brigades were trained and armed by NATO for the offensive, all of them subsequently suffering catastrophic losses.

The brigades performed poorly during the 2023 offensive due primarily to the short period of training both individual soldiers received and the short period of time the individual brigades had to train for combined arms operations.

To successfully build a brigade, Ukraine would need to properly train individual soldiers for entry-level positions such as infantry, artillery, armor, and other supporting roles. They would also need to properly train these soldiers as part of the individual units they would be assigned to in order to build unit cohesion. These units would then need to train to work together as a brigade in combined arms warfare in which infantry, armor, artillery, and other types of units coordinate together on the battlefield.

Basic training alone can take 2–3 months. Additional training for supporting roles can take anywhere from a few months to an entire year to complete. Even when this training is complete, newly trained soldiers usually benefit from a period of on-the-job training with experienced soldiers in existing units led by experienced non-commissioned officers (NCOs) or officers.

Another aspect often overlooked is the training and experience required from these NCOs and officers. Their training can take over a year or more to complete and the experience that makes fire team leaders as well as platoon, company, battalion, and brigade commanders effective on the battlefield takes even longer to acquire.

It should be remembered that the US along with the rest of NATO spent from 2014 to 2022 training tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops at all levels of Ukraine’s armed forces, including officer training and brigade-level combined arms training, according to the US Department of Defense. Despite this, Ukraine’s military was unprepared to fight Russian forces when Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO) began in February 2022.

While these NATO-trained Ukrainian forces managed to draw out the conflict and raise the costs for Russia of addressing its national security concerns along its border with Ukraine, by doing so, Ukraine itself is paying a much higher cost in terms of economic damage, loss of life, the loss of territory, and the decimation of its armed forces in the process.

If the US and the rest of NATO were unable to build forces sufficient to fight and defeat Russian forces under ideal conditions over the course of 8 years, it is unlikely the collective West can do so in the middle of an intense, large-scale conflict that is demonstrably eliminating what trained military manpower and equipment Ukraine has left.

Efforts to reconstitute trained military manpower since the beginning of the SMO have focused on providing thousands of Ukrainian conscripts and volunteers to abbreviated training courses across Europe before sending them back to Ukraine to face combat. These abbreviated training courses are incapable of producing properly trained soldiers to fight effectively on the battlefield, leading to greater losses and thus a greater need for additional soldiers. The more soldiers Ukraine needs, the more abbreviated training becomes, the less effective that training is, and the more subsequent losses Ukraine suffers on the battlefield. This constitutes a vicious cycle Ukraine and its Western sponsors are incapable of escaping, except through either ending or expanding the conflict.

This may be why some Western leaders have resorted to escalatory statements regarding NATO intervention more directly into the conflict, perhaps believing NATO manpower and equipment can overcome Russian forces in a manner Ukrainian forces currently cannot.

It may be that some Western leaders believe NATO forces creating a buffer zone in western Ukraine might provide the Ukrainian population added impetus to further mobilize and fight in the east. While this might free up additional troops and make available additional manpower, it still will not solve the problem of properly training these forces, nor the problem of properly arming and equipping them.

Whether or not NATO intervention could achieve either of these goals, such courses of action would raise the threat of escalation and even the prospect of nuclear war.

The fact that NATO is considering such escalatory measures reflects the mindset beginning to take shape within Washington, London, and Brussels at this stage of the conflict. NATO leaders must ask themselves whether they are genuinely confident escalation at this juncture can resolve the problems created by their own poor planning and preparation until now, or whether subsequent escalation will compound these problems further.



https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/03/ ... -solve-it/

******

About the "Geraney" plant
March 7, 10:20

Image

Regarding the plant for the production of "Geraniums".
I was there last year. Even then, the scale and volume of production was striking. When they were broadcasting in Ukraine at that time that Russia would soon run out of Geraniums, it was always a little funny.

Since then, production volume has only grown, while the drones themselves are constantly being improved and they are moving further and further from the original Shahed-136 version. The process of the birth of “Geraniums” itself is frankly impressive. What was shown in the photos and videos is a very small part of what is there. I believe that over time, other interesting aspects of the domestic unmanned industry will be declassified.

In general, it is gratifying that we have such places in our country and that our country’s existing significant gap in loitering ammunition and kamikaze UAVs was so quickly and decisively overcome in just a couple of years (this applies not only to “Geraniums”). The whole story with the creation of "Geraniums" is the embodiment of the saying about slow-harnessing Russians.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9009412.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10769
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Mar 08, 2024 1:17 pm

The strategic awakening of endless climbing
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 03/08/2024

Image

Since its outbreak of war in 2014, the Ukrainian conflict has had three distinct and closely linked aspects: a civil factor of struggle between two ways of understanding Ukraine, which led to the war in Donbass; the conflict between Moscow and kyiv, with territorial, political, economic, social and cultural components and a conflict between Russia and the West in which both parties saw Ukraine as a proxy in the fight for levels of power and spheres of influence. The lack of interest in resolving the 2014 civil war, which increased the dispute between Russia and Ukraine and increasingly contaminated the growing clash between Moscow and Western capitals, has led to a large-scale war that has little to do with the conflict. low-intensity war that lasted for eight years in Donbass. Ten years later, amid the growing desolation and disappointment over the poor results obtained by Ukraine in the 2023 ground counteroffensive , the geopolitical aspect threatens to eclipse all other factors in an escalation, for the moment only verbal, with dangerous potential.

With the United States concerned about its internal electoral dynamics and with Joe Biden's team leaning increasingly to the right on anti-immigration issues to get the Republican Party to grant the more than 60 billion that the Democratic administration wants for Ukraine, the ball is on the European roof. As kyiv's main donor, the EU, which has decided to turn the war into the existential conflict that it is not, sees the need to raise the stakes or risk losing part of the investment. Despite the commitment they made with their presence in Minsk in February 2015 in the negotiation of the agreement that was to end the civil conflict that marked the eight years between the victory of Maidan and the Russian invasion, European countries were always comfortable with the Donbass war. And even with Russian troops besieging kyiv and at risk of a state of war becoming chronic again in Ukraine - this time not of low intensity, as had happened in Donbass, but of the highest possible in the land war -, the European countries never favored the search for a diplomatic resolution.

With both parties condemned to war until the final defeat or exhaustion of both sides, the calculation depended on the success of the Zaporozhie offensive with which Ukraine hoped to break the front and reach Crimea and with which some of its partners wanted to force Russia to sit at the negotiating table between a rock and a hard place. This is the case of Emmanuel Macron, the European leader who most clearly expressed that this was the real objective of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which at that time was still in its phase of illusion, the one in which promises mattered and there were still months to go. that Ukrainian tanks were stopped by Russian minefields, artillery and Lantset drones. As the French president stated repeatedly, Ukraine needed a victory to force Russia to negotiate in an inferior position.

Now, that desired Ukrainian victory has become a disappointment that has come at the worst possible time, coinciding with the electoral difficulties of Joe Biden, who cannot provide the financing that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would need to prepare the new offensive that Zelensky and your team aspires to plan. In this sense, the Ukrainian discourse walks against the current trend of exaggerated catastrophism and analyzes that point to the need for a plan B , the search for the second best possible option or that simply warn Ukraine of the need to use 2024 in defense. from the front and wait until 2025 to even consider major offensive operations.

The dynamics of the land front, in which Russia has regained the initiative, the absence of American financing and the European difficulties in building a coherent strategic position and mobilizing its industrial and economic resources to produce the material that Washington cannot currently supply, have led to an exaltation that has surpassed all limits after Emmanuel Macron's words about the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine. In just a few months, the French president, the last European leader to meet with Vladimir Putin to try to avoid Russian military intervention, has gone from stating that a Ukrainian victory was necessary, but that Russia should not be humiliated, to causing the anger of their German allies by putting on the table the sending of troops, perceived by Chancellor Scholz as a way of crossing the threshold of belligerence.

“France is not contemplating sending its troops to Ukraine,” said Macron just a few days after having caused a confrontation with Germany, which with some lightness had revealed the presence of British and perhaps French troops with tasks directly linked to the use of the missiles sent by their countries. “It is a debate about what we can do for Ukraine,” he insisted. Despite appearances, it was not a change of opinion but rather a reaffirmation of his position. On the same visit to the Czech Republic in which he spoke those words in an interview, the French president stated in his speech: "We must be aware that this war affects us. We must be lucid, for two years now we have been repeating that the war has returned to European soil. We have revealed the help provided. Is it our war or is it not our war? Can we turn our backs on reality? I don't think so, it's a strategic awakening that I assume." Deliberately forgetting that the war reached European soil a decade ago and also the lack of French role in taking steps to prevent this conflict from spreading, Macron appeals in his current speech to the responsibility of European countries to achieve the objectives .

To do this, it hides behind the Russian threat and an absolutely distorted vision of its president's intentions. “Ask President Putin what he is not willing to do. Who started the war in Ukraine? Who threatens with nuclear weapons? If every day we explain what our limits are to someone who does not have them, the spirit of defeat is lurking," he added. Russian nuclear doctrine has not changed and provides for the use of nuclear weapons as a last resort after a nuclear or conventional attack if it endangers the integrity of the State, something that could happen as a result of a war against NATO. This was explained by Vladimir Putin together with Emmanuel Macron after the marathon six-hour meeting in which, after NATO's refusal to negotiate the non-expansion of the Alliance towards the east, the French president wanted to convince his Russian counterpart not to invade. Ukraine.

European nervousness stems from fear of defeat. For the first time since 2022, it is Ukraine that finds itself on the defensive, not knowing exactly what to do to stop the bleeding on the land front and with uncertainty as to whether American financing will arrive soon and whether the European Union will be able to compensate for those delays. Because the answer to the question of what European countries can do is simple: the bloc should double its contribution to Ukraine and offer short-term financing and not in multi-year plans to supply the United States. Even so, despite having the financing, the European Union would find itself facing the difficulties it already has in producing the necessary military material or acquiring it on the market. That, and not the possibility of a Ukrainian defeat that would lead Russia to attack NATO countries, is the cause of the extreme nervousness of leaders like Emmanuel Macron.

Willing to become the champion of maximum belligerence, Macron yesterday held a meeting with the leaders of the main parties with a parliamentary presence, in which he outlined his plans for Ukraine and sought political support to make France the country that leads the effort. in favor of Ukraine. As has emerged in the French press, Macron raised three main ideas. Western countries should not set limits, as that would give Russia a “comparative advantage.” Ukraine's partners must also quickly mobilize additional resources to counter the Russian threat. In other words, they must compensate for equipment that the United States should send and currently cannot because of the legislative blockade. Finally, relying on the idea of ​​strategic ambiguity , France and its allies must support Kiev to avoid defeat, although without placing themselves in a belligerent position. This is where he clashes with the vision, for example, of Chancellor Scholz, who has made it clear that he sees that border in the presence of troops in tasks using, for example, missiles.

“I arrived restless and I left even more restless,” Manuel Bompard, from France Insoumise, warned after the meeting. Fabian Roussel, a communist representative, took the same line, stating that Macron is “willing to commit to a war escalation that could be dangerous.” From the ideological antipodes, Jordan Bordella, Marine LePen's number two, insisted that "fighting against a nuclear power like Russia is irresponsible and extremely dangerous for world peace," to which the Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin reacted by writing that "when "The extreme right appears reasonable compared to the radicalized center, there is a danger for democracy."

The statements of the political groups represented at the meeting do not point to an agreement with the president. The environmentalist Marine Tondelier, for example, recalled the unanimity that had occurred in Europe against Macron's words about the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine. However, this unanimity was not such: the Baltic countries showed their enthusiasm for the idea and the United Kingdom used the ambiguity that Macron demands to leave the door open. And neither does the apparent rejection of the French parties to the belligerent stance of their head of state completely represent the positions of the political groups.

According to Le Figaro yesterday , the Republicans value a favorable vote and the socialists and environmentalists doubt their position regarding the non-binding vote on the Ukraine issue that will be held on Tuesday in the National Assembly and on Wednesday in the Senate. . In that parliamentary arc in which Marine LePen's extreme right advocates bilateral agreements with Ukraine in the style of those signed by the United Kingdom or Italy but puts the red line on accession to NATO and the EU and the republican, socialist center and environmentalist doubts his position but values ​​a favorable vote, only the two parties furthest to the left, the Communist Party and Insoumise France, are openly against Emmanuel Macron's position.

In the meeting with the political groups, which sought to prepare the ground for next week's parliamentary sessions, the French president did not limit himself to ambiguous threats, but proposed concrete scenarios. According to La Croix , which quotes the leader of the communists Fabian Roussel, “Emmanuel Macron has outlined, relying on a map, the scenario of an advance of the front “towards Odessa or towards Kiev, which could trigger an intervention” to stop Russia. ”. A Russian advance on Odessa is, today, as unrealistic as an attack on NATO. Russia has taken the initiative in the land war, but is suffering seriously in the Black Sea, where Ukraine, a country without a navy, is being able to destroy or disable the Russian fleet, necessary for any attempt to approach Odessa. Without the fleet, Russia would have to break the front, cross the Dnieper and surpass Kherson and Nikolaev to threaten Odessa, something that would require a defensive collapse in the Ukrainian ranks.

Absolutely unrealistic under current conditions, the reference to the possibility of an attack on Odessa is not coincidental. On Wednesday, during Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the city, a Russian missile attack destroyed a military hangar located a short distance from the place where the Ukrainian president was holding a press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriákos Mitsotákis. Zelensky's team reacted quickly to call the attack an attempted assassination of the president. Faced with the accusation, the Russian press has reacted by publishing an image captured by one of the Russian surveillance drones in which Zelensky's convoy can be seen on his last visit to Kherson, a way of proving that Moscow is not seeking to assassinate the head of State of Ukraine. Sectors of Ukraine's defense have also reached the same conclusion. Natalia Gumeniuk, spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces, denied the link between the attack and Zelensky's presence, a denial that has not been enough to prevent a new increase in tension on the part of certain Western leaders obsessed with exaggerating to the maximum the threat to justify the umpteenth escalation.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/03/08/el-de ... a-sin-fin/

Google Translator

I do no believe that the Black Sea Fleet is a factor in an Odessa operation, other than as a diversion/feint. The Ukes fortified the coast in that area at the gitgo and the Russian Fleet was never strong enough to launch a Normandy type invasion. If Odessa is to be liberated it will be by an approach from the north, avoiding the rivers which widen near the coast. This would not necessitate taking Kiev, which in the Ukrainian Army's decrepitude could be screened.

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Forwarded from
Military chronicle
Reinforcements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Berdychi and advance in Orlovka: the situation in the Avdeevsky direction on March 7

🔺Initial information about the transfer of a significant number of Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves to this area was confirmed. The Ukrainian army is bringing up troops and equipment through Pokrovsk to Novgorodovka in hopes of stabilizing the front line.

🟥TONENKOYE is one of the most difficult points on this section of the front. The western part is still under the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the east is under the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and there is a massacre going on for the central part in the gray zone. The attempts of the Ukrainian army to cling to this population are quite understandable: if the defense is established in Tonenkoye, then difficulties will begin along the chain in Berdychi and west of Orlovka. The main difficulty in the case of Tonenky is to block Central Street, along which Ukrainian Armed Forces tanks and infantry fighting vehicles with troops periodically roll out. The Ukrainian army does not spare the personnel: in one of the counterattacks a few days ago, three landing groups were lost, which were later replaced by four new ones, some of which were also destroyed in the area of ​​transformer substations.

⚠️Any statements about taking control of the village in the near future should not be regarded as plausible. Despite the small area of ​​the village, there is still a lot of combat work to be done.

🟥BERDICHY - Ukrainian Armed Forces reinforcements have been deployed to this area from Ocheretin and Sokol. Rolling out with direct fire is dangerous, so Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles with troops operate from a small area between Novobakhmutovka and the concrete road of an abandoned airfield. The village is “cut up” into a large number of small support units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The quality of the fortifications is not the best, but it is difficult to break through them. To the west of the village, a roaming mortar (presumably a Romanian M1982) was observed working in the area of ​​an abandoned reservoir. The mortar crews use Czech or probably Polish mines.

🟥ORLOVKA - after some progress, Ukrainian artillery and tanks began to pour in from the western hills on the positions occupied by the Russian Armed Forces. In response, ATGMs and drones attack the tanks. The situation is consistently difficult, without any distortions in any direction. From the Ukrainian side, reserves are moving to the hills west of Orlovka, and tons of guided bombs are flying there from the Russian side. The activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is gradually increasing from the side of Zoryanskoe Lake and Elagin Street. These positions are under fire from Russian anti-tank systems, so the firing of Ukrainian equipment is short-term.

🟥OCHERETINO - after the start of the fighting in Krasnogorovka along the T-05-11 highway between Novokalinov, Ocheretin and Keramik, the restoration of the support structures built here back in 2015-2018 intensified. Mostly small abandoned objects are being restored, but capital construction, like in Avdievka, has not yet been recorded.

🟥SEMENOVKA - for now the village is under the full control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which allows mechanized units to be transferred here. The 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade "Magura" is also actively operating through the village along the front, having lost several M1 Abrams tanks. Insufficient attention has yet been paid to active military operations north and south of Semyonovka, although it is from here that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have the opportunity to maneuver reserves along an 8 km route and interfere with work along Berdychi and Orlovka.

✈️Neither side was able to withstand a long operational pause in this direction. On the contrary, the transfer of Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves (primarily to the Ocheretino-Solovyovo-Novobakhmutovka area) suggests that in the near future we can expect more intense clashes along the entire 10-km section from Orlovka in the south to Ocheretin in the north.

🟥 - intensification of hostilities
🟢— the situation is unchanged / minimal changes

***

Colonelcassad
🔹 Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of March 7, 2024) | The main thing:

- Russian air defense shot down six HIMARS missiles and an AASM Hammer guided bomb in one day;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost 3 tanks and up to 200 military personnel in the Donetsk direction in one day;

— The Russian Armed Forces repelled six counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of ​​the settlement of Sinkovka, Kharkov region, in the Kupyansk direction;

— The Russian Armed Forces occupied more advantageous lines and positions in the Avdeevka direction, repelled four attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy lost up to 390 military personnel;

— The Vostok group has improved the position along the front line in the southern Donetsk direction;

— Within a day, the Russian Armed Forces hit the control center of the 80th Air Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;

— The Russian Armed Forces destroyed an ammunition depot of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction within 24 hours;

— The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 160 military personnel in a day in the South Donetsk direction;

— The RF Armed Forces, through active actions, improved the situation along the front line in the Kupyansk direction;

— Four Ukrainian Armed Forces ammunition depots were destroyed in the Donetsk direction in one day.

▫️Operational-tactical aviation , unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery from groupings of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit a fuel depot for military equipment, a control center of the 80th air assault brigade , manpower and military equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 109 regions.

▫️During the day, air defense systems shot down six rockets from the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system , as well as an AASM “Hammer” guided aerial bomb made in France.

▫️ 123 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Olshana, Kharkov region, Chervonopopovka, Novodruzhesk, Zolotorevka of the Lugansk People's Republic, Krasnoe, Peski, Pervomaiskoe, Shevchenko, Petrivske of the Donetsk People's Republic, Ocheretovatoe, Novoe of the Zaporozhye region, Korsunka and Krynki of the Kherson region.

📊In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 576 aircraft, 267 helicopters, 14,563 unmanned aerial vehicles, 482 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,388 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,234 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 8,314 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 19,461 units of special military vehicles. (.....)

https://t.me/mod_russia/36378

Google Translator

******

Yes, Sure...

... good idea...


Russia’s Ministry of Defense building or the HQ of the country’s intelligence service in central Moscow are legitimate targets that should be attacked, the deputy chairman of the German parliament’s oversight committee, Roderich Kiesewetter, has stated. The lawmaker, who is a former German Army (Bundeswehr) general staff officer, insisted that Ukraine should take the war to Russia.“Ukraine should be given the opportunity to take the war to the Russian territory,” Kiesewetter told a talk show on state broadcaster ZDF, noting that Defense Minister Boris Pistorius had already called for the same in April 2023.

Yes, Bundeswehr, those Nazi generals, also wrote field manuals for the US Army, because, obviously, having Soviet flag hoisted over Berlin is a solid proof of Wehrmacht being a top notch force. Not surprising seeing the US Army "perform" in wars it lost. But one has to remind this German imbecile from Bundeswehr that he is dealing with Russia of the XXI century and he, his wife, children and grandchildren are well registered in data base of targeting of Russia's stand off weaponry, and that, unlike feeble German Taurus, Russians can launch from 2,500 kilometers and German (pathetic) air defense will be unable to do anything about it. Come to think about it, Berlin is long overdue for rearranging the stones, because what Germans elect is trash. They will continue to elect trash and genocidal maniacs and that, most likely, explains everything you need to know about the fate of Europe--not to mention the fact that every Bundeswehr and Bundestag ass-hole has to be dragged, nose first, through Russian cemeteries of WW II and be pointed out to the piles of bodies they created through their lebensraum. Maybe, Morgenthau had a point, after all. It took stupid Russians to play with humanism. I don't think Roderich Kieswetter deserves anything but firing back Auschwitz crematoriums and giving him a taste of his own medicine. I guess, Germany never was denazified.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/03/yes-sure.html

******

NOTHING IN NULAND’S LIFE BECAME HER LIKE THE LEAVING OF IT

Image

by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

As enemies go, Victoria Nuland (lead image), the Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, was as threatening for Russia as the Thane of Cawdor was for Scotland and Macbeth in Shakespeare’s play about multiple homicide to capture state power.

Cawdor repented for his treason in the moment before he died on the scaffold. His execution then allowed Macbeth to take Cawdor’s title and assets for himself, then move on to murder the Scottish king, and replace him until Macbeth was killed himself.

The murdering Nuland has committed was foretold by many more sources than the three witches in Shakespeare’s plot.

But if Nuland has witchly premonitions, she lacks Macbeth’s and Lady Macbeth’s sleepwalking guilt. In Nuland’s case, it is plain that as her murdering has accelerated, she has been gorging herself with food. In the play Lady Macbeth succumbed and then killed herself offstage. Nuland has just left the stage one hundred pounds heavier than when she entered it. Not auspicious, according to the Heart Foundation.

The script of Nuland’s exit is also not Shakespearian in quality. There is not a single Washington journalist or analyst whose job it has been for years to follow the scheming inside the State Department to report what those in a position to know believe is the reason for Nuland’s hasty “resignation”, as it is being called by the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. His public obituary started with the idea that he had been taken by surprise when Nuland “has let me know that she intends to step down in the coming weeks”; it ended with the immediate naming of Nuland’s replacement, and her tombstone inscribed with “the lasting mark she’s made on this institution and the world.”

For the haste of her exit; for its timing late in the US presidential election campaign and as the Ukrainian military collapses, no one in a position to know believes Nuland’s reasons as they have been leaked by reporters close to her – that her ambition had been offended by her failure to be promoted from Number-3 to Number-2 at State; that her feminism was violated by the non-promotion; and that her Russia warmaking had been subordinated by the higher priority of the White House to fight China.

Nor is her departure a case of avoiding blame for the failure of US policy in the Ukraine and in Europe, as the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Maria Zakharova, declared yesterday. Nuland is responsible for “the fiasco of American foreign policy”, Zakharova said. “The bet was a huge one. Everything was staked by the liberal Democrats starting with Barack Obama. That bet has now been lost. An absolute fiasco — the rush by V.A. Zelensky begging for at least something more — the White House rejecting his requests — discord everywhere in NATO… No one has a clear idea what to do…A complete fiasco.”

Zakharova didn’t claim that the US and NATO leaders, their military staffs, and political advisors lack clarity on what they don’t want to risk – that’s to continue the war which Nuland has been promoting, and to escalate it with new weapons on the Ukrainian battlefield, and by attacks deep into Russia itself with nuclear-capable missiles like the German Taurus and US F-16s.

If that is what the Russians think is happening and if they are correct – re-read the double negative — then the reason for Nuland’s exit is either that she was forced out, principally by the Joint Chiefs of Staff before she could do more damage to US military assets in Europe; or that she decided not to be in office when the Articles of Capitulation are signed between Kiev, Lvov, and Moscow.

Unlike Lady Macbeth, Nuland has not gone offstage to expire. The Fat Lady isn’t singing the only song Nuland thinks she can still sing.

In Shakespeare’s version, Macbeth’s plot to kill Cawdor falls short because Duncan, the king of Scotland, announces he is promoting his son to a new title and appoints him as his successor king instead of Macbeth. This leaves Macbeth and his wife no alternative but to murder Duncan before the succession can take place. “In my way it lies,” Macbeth thinks in an aside that is Shakespearian for cover-up. “Stars, hide your fires; let not light see my black and deep desires.”

Image
Read the full play here. The lead quote appears in Act 1, Scene 4.

The journalist with the longest lasting ambition to promote himself by advancing the self-serving stories of officials who cultivated him, David Ignatius of the Washington Post, has vocally reported Nuland’s claims of murderous plotting and scheming inside the Kremlin. That was a year ago, on February 23, 2023. Now that the murderous plot is on the other foot, in Washington, Ignatius is dumbstruck.

In Moscow yesterday evening, Vzglyad, the semi-official platform for security and military analysis, issued its assessment of Nuland’s exit and the plot behind it. The Russian report has been translated verbatim.

One Russian mistake – Nuland has been the third-ranking official at State, not the fourth as reported; she has also been the second-ranking as well as the first in an acting capacity – has been left in the English text. This mistake aside, a comparison of the Russian analysis with the American one reveals the relative incapacity of US officials and their mouthpieces – and this isn’t to count the effectiveness of the GRU and other Russian services to penetrate, record and understand what Nuland, Ignatius and the rest are planning.

There’s no hiding their “fires” or “black and deep desires.”

Illustrations have been added.

Image
Click to read: https://vz.ru/

March 5, 2024
Nuland’s successor should scare Zelensky
By Dmitry Bavyrin

US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland is retiring from the civil service. She was responsible for relations with Russia back in the days of the first Yeltsin government, but all-Russia fame came to her after the distribution of “cookies” on the Maidan. There are serious reasons why Nuland chose retirement, even though she was destined for the Secretary of State’s chair. And the President of Ukraine has reason to be apprehensive of the candidacy of her replacement.

Formally, Victoria Nuland was only the fourth [in fact third] in the US diplomatic hierarchy, but in terms of her real influence she is comparable to the Number-1 — Secretary of State Antony Blinken, whose place, according to rumours, she was aiming for. They are close in views, but belonged to different clans, and Nuland loomed over Blinken like a Nemesis: if it was decided to write off all the foreign policy failures of the Biden period and remove Blinken from office, the State Department would certainly go to her.

She is only a year older than Blinken, but as a diplomat she is old enough to be his mother. He is more of an armchair theorist than a practitioner, more of a “hand-me–down” to politicians than a politician, whereas Nuland usually worked “on the front line” – in secure situation rooms around the world, being a career ambassador in both the Russian and American sense of the term.

In Russia, this means that the individual entered the diplomatic service not from the outside (for example, as a political appointee), but through specialized education and climbed the ladder of the ranks of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. And in the United States, this is something like the principal title of honour for diplomats – a sign not only of merit, but also of the highest professional qualifications. Since 1956, only six dozen people have received this honorific, and Nuland is one of the most famous on the list.

She was good at her job; had been responsible for important areas for Washington for decades – NATO, Russia, Ukraine; it was as if she was born someday to become head the State Department, and best of all now, when it is especially fashionable to appoint women. However, President Joe Biden is stubbornly sticking to Blinken, whom he has known for a long time and intimately. He trusts him and he does not want to replace him with stronger and more independent characters like Nuland.

Image
Blinken briefs Biden, October 7, 2023 – White House picture. No comparable picture of Biden with Nuland has been found.

Nevertheless, the Secretary of State must have breathed a sigh of relief when he received Nuland’s resignation letter.

The fact that Blinken himself announced the departure of his likely rival for the succession seems to indicate his desire to cut off her escape route and the opportunity to change her mind. Whether this is true or not, he did not skimp on compliments, calling Nuland “exceptional” and promising her a place in the history books because of the role she has played in the events around Ukraine.

There may also be a place for that in Russian textbooks, only with different emphasis. Nuland became famous on our side of the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic when she distributed cookies to Euromaidan protesters on the eve of the [February 21, 2014 Kiev] coup. And this fame was supported by the fact that she continued to oversee the Ukrainian direction and was Washington’s main negotiator with Moscow on all issues arising from this.

Image
Then Assistant Secretary of State, Nuland handed out cookies in Maidan Square in Kiev, December 11, 2013.

The beginning of the Special Military Operation is her personal failure. Nuland tried to prevent such a turn of events, but could not maintain the necessary degree of control over the self–willed Ukrainian government. She also allegedly wanted to prevent the resignation of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, and also failed. Shortly after that, Nuland ceased to act as Blinken’s Deputy Secretary of State and the Number-2 person in the State Department; she had been formally considered the replacement [for Wendy Sherman] in this position and lasted six months before Kurt Campbell was appointed; now, a month later, she resigns from her “post number four” [three], that is, definitively.

It is unlikely that this fall is due to failures. There are many failures in Nuland’s career, primarily because she worked in the most difficult areas. It’s much more like escaping from a sinking ship, when the ship is the Joe Biden administration.

It seems unlikely that he will be able to win the presidential election in eight months’ time. In Nuland’s eyes, he may be altogether non-credible now, since she interacts with “old Joe” personally and is more privy to his medical diagnosis than many others. And with the return of Donald Trump to the White House, continuation of her work in the State Department is incompatible, despite her experience and seniority.

Although Nuland is strongly associated with the Democratic Party of Obama and Biden, she is a nonpartisan diplomat – a career professional who remains in service regardless of who is president. Nuland received her first non-bureaucratic position, but an important public role as U.S. ambassador to NATO under Republican George W. Bush. It is very possible that her husband Robert Kagan, a political theorist, and concurrently a friend and like–minded associate of the entourage of both Bushes, the elder and the younger, contributed to this.

His strong connection with the “neocons” – the most aggressive wing of the Republicans – still holds, although Kagan himself left the party on the arrival of President Trump, cursing him in every way.

Nuland also left the civil service then: maybe because of her husband, or rather because her political credo suited both neocon Republicans and globalist Democrats, but not the isolationist Trumpites. This credo is to maintain the global dominance of the United States at all costs and fight unsubservient regimes with the help of force.

She has publicly stressed that the work of diplomats and the military complement each other. This is true, but coming from a supporter of American expansionism, it sounds blood-curdling — in the spirit of the eternal “wars for democracy” around Russia and oil.

Trump is more in favour of keeping soldiers at home, and NATO to disband as too expensive. This is primarily why the neocons declared themselves the main opponents of Trump within the party, but lost and were pushed from significant party posts to the sidelines during the Trump revival – this was caused, not by the fact that the former president is really estimable, but rather by the fact that the incumbent (i.e. Biden) is really execrable.

For their last political ploy, the neocons invested in the presidential campaign of Nikki Haley, but now it is obvious that it would be easier to put Trump in the ground than to raise Haley above him.

Biden is also, to put it mildly, not a fighter, so the opportune time to leave for Nuland is now. Blinken will be with the boss to the end, like a faithful steward. Nuland does not need to transfer her portfolio to the Trumpists who hate her; who will ask unpleasant questions about her, and delve into sensitive details.

Therefore, she will transfer the portfolio to John Bass, another professional diplomat with similar views, whose track record, however, should make Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky wince. Bass is not a new clinician. More like a pathologist.

He was the ambassador to Afghanistan when the Americans fled, leaving the country to the Taliban. And as ambassador to Georgia when Washington’s protégé Mikheil Saakashvili lost power. And also as ambassador to Turkey, when President Recep Erdogan, resisting an attempted military coup, conducted a large-scale purge of American agents and agents of influence.

Image
Left, Ambassador John Bass with then Secretary of State Michael Pompeo in Kabul on June 25, 2019.


That is to say, the person who inherits all the Ukrainian problems from Nuland is not very fortunate, but he certainly knows how to destroy the evidence and seal the premises. But this is exactly what Nuland and Biden need in Ukraine – also [Hunter] Biden Jr., whose greed and forgetfulness brought his father under impeachment, and the entire globalist elite which fanned the conflagration of war in Eastern Europe could not curb it.


https://johnhelmer.net/nothing-in-nulan ... more-89522

******

The target was fixed, but there was no command to fire
March 7, 22:19

Image

Yes, Zelensky is seen, but not killed.
Because the decision to kill or not to kill Zelensky is not a military decision, but a political one.
There is no order to liquidate Zelensky, that’s why they don’t shoot. That’s why all the stories about the assassination attempts on Zelensky are worthless - there is no such team. Priorities will change and there will be a command - the monitored motorcades of Zelensky and his entourage will immediately begin to be sent to fire.

PS. In the photo, taken by a Russian UAV hovering over Kherson, Zelensky’s motorcade in Kherson.
As you might guess, launching a hypersonic missile from Crimea at a fixed target was not difficult. An Iskander with a cluster warhead would work well here. But...
That’s why Zelensky rides around calmly, because he knows that they are not going to kill him. At least at the current stage.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9010698.html

Google Translator

******

It’s Time For Kiev To Pay The Piper If It Wants To Keep The Proxy War Going

Image

ANDREW KORYBKO
MAR 8, 2024

In the absence of funds, a significant portion of which was presumably stolen from Brussels’ monthly financial aid, the only recourse is for Ukraine to give its patrons control over parts of the country in exchange.

EU Commissioner Thierry Breton responded to Zelensky’s complaints about the bloc allegedly failing to fulfill its promise to provide Ukraine with 1 million shells by reminding him that they aren’t free. While acknowledging that some were agreed to be donated, others were supposed to have been purchased directly from European industries, which Kiev can afford due to the €1.5 billion per month in financial aid that it receives from Brussels. Because of this, Breton claimed that the bloc was already above target.

To be sure, the EU Commissioner might be inflating some of the numbers that he claims have been provided to that country via both channels in order to avoid drawing attention to Russia’s victory in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with NATO, but the other part of his fact-check is still important. The public has hitherto been under the false impression that the EU promised to donate these shells, but Breton finally clarified that “I said: ‘provide’ and not ‘give away for free’.”

Kiev evidently can’t afford to purchase any more and Brussels is reluctant to continue its donations, even though some countries might give additional supplies away on their own, so it’ll now have to pay the pipe one way or another in order to keep the proxy war going otherwise it might soon end. In the absence of funds, a significant portion of which was presumably stolen from Brussels’ monthly financial aid, the only recourse is for Ukraine to give its patrons control over parts of the country in exchange.

Zelensky suggested this model during the May 2022 Davos Summit when saying that “we offer a special - historically significant - model of reconstruction. When each of the partner countries or partner cities or partner companies will have the opportunity - historical one - to take patronage over a particular region of Ukraine, city, community or industry. Britain, Denmark, the European Union and other leading international actors have already chosen a specific direction for patronage in reconstruction.”

Accordingly, “The Reportedly Planned G7 Envoy To Ukraine Would Be Tasked With Carrying Out The Davos Agenda”, with their priority being to divvy up these regions, cities, communities, and industries between those of its patrons who agree to swap shells for shares in them. Zelensky might refuse to pay the piper, however, in which case he’d be gambling that they’ll either resume their donations out of desperation or that NATO will conventionally intervene to save Ukraine if it faces collapse.

It also can’t be ruled out that this is a cynical ploy designed by the EU to pressure him into resuming talks following the publication of the Wall Street Journal’s report about the alleged details of spring 2022’s draft Russian-Ukrainian peace treaty seeing as how they likely know that they can’t outproduce Moscow. The bloc might want to make a buck off of Ukraine by laundering its financial aid back into European industries or receive shares in exchange for shells ahead of the conflict’s inevitable diplomatic resolution.

Whatever the motives at play may be, the fact of the matter is that the “good guy” charade is nearing an end after Breton bluntly told Zelensky that he needs to pay the piper one way or another otherwise he’s not getting any more shells, after which the proxy war might then end but on worse terms for Kiev. The only way to keep it going is to buy more shells and/or swap shares in his country’s regions, cities, communities, and industries in exchange, but it’s unclear which route he’ll go, if any at all.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/its-time ... -the-piper
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10769
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:00 pm

Reality, desires and fiction
POSTED BY @NSANZO ⋅ 03/09/2024

Image

“As Russian troops stalked a Ukrainian pocket southeast of Avdeevka, Infantryman Oleh clearly heard the order: 'There will be no evacuation. "Leave the 300," writes an extensive report published by The Kiyv Independent that narrates the chaotic Ukrainian withdrawal from the fort north of Donetsk and the abandonment of the wounded. The withdrawal was not going to be organized. The article refers primarily to a specific place, Zenit, “a key position that had held out the Russian advance towards Avdeevka from the south since 2014.” Raised from the only political opposition accepted in today's Ukraine, a nationalism even more exalted than that of Zelensky's entourage, the medium is one of the few examples of publications critical of the current Government. It is possible precisely because this criticism is made without the slightest hint of disagreement with the objective and even the ways to achieve it. Neither tactics nor strategy are the problem, which can be reduced to the name of the head of state and commander in chief of the Armed Forces. Without any subtlety to hide the fact that its articles would differ significantly if the Ukrainian army were led by Petro Poroshenko and Valery Zaluzhny, both closely linked to nationalist postulates and groups in western Ukraine, the article recounts the misery of the soldiers, abandoned to their fate. by an inefficient command and always comparing the current situation with the imaginary war against Russia that Poroshenko never fought.

“Ukrainian troops have defended Avdeevka, a strategic point home to the massive Soviet-era Avdeevka Coke Plant, since 2014, even after a brief Russian occupation,” the article writes to describe the weeks between April and July of that year in which that the newly created militias and local population maintained control of the city until the start of fighting and the fall of Slavyansk, when the domino effect brought the front line to the outskirts of Donetsk. “Russia intensified its offensive on Avdeevka on two occasions in 2023, with the second beginning in October and resulting in the fall of the city,” he adds, trying to present the non-existent battle for control of the city, which fell practically automatic in a completely unbalanced fight between an army - disorganized as the Ukrainian one was in 2014, but an army nonetheless - and a militia with barely three months of life.

Although the artillery duels never subsided and certain deteriorations threatened to restart active hostilities over Avdeevka on several occasions throughout the Donbass war, the Donetsk People's Republic never aspired to advance on the city in the same way that Ukraine did not try to capture Yasinovataya. During the years of trench warfare, and especially since the front was consolidated on the outskirts of Donetsk, defenses prevailed over attacks and there was never an attempt to plan a major operation to capture Avdeevka. Of course, at that time, the fight was led by the armies of Donetsk and Lugansk and not by the Russian army, as can now be seen with the qualitative change brought about by the arrival in Donbass of regular Russian troops, which have equipment heavier, drones and, above all, aviation. However, that reality is not enough to give up the idea of ​​ten years of fighting against the Russian Federation, a much more epic story than admitting that, for eight years, Ukraine was not able to defeat a militia and that it preferred to risk a broader war instead of implementing the Minsk agreements and recovering the territory of Donbass, thus eliminating the military danger for places like, for example, Avdeevka, in exchange for minimal autonomy for Donetsk and Lugansk. On this, as on almost everything, Presidents Zelensky and Poroshenko have always agreed.

“It was impossible to carry the wounded on a 2.5 kilometer journey to Avdeevka, a small industrial town about to fall. Oleh's survival was also uncertain, since the Russians only left a space of about 120 meters in their fence that the Ukrainian soldiers could use to flee," writes The Kiyv Independent , which shows a very similar image to that of 2015, when, despite the apparent siege, Ukrainian soldiers managed to flee across the fields to be met by Petro Poroshenko in nearby Artyomovsk. Much more dangerous currently, the front did not receive a visit on this occasion from Zelensky, who wanted to explain the defeat by avoiding any criticism of the dismissal of Zaluzhny, who it has been said for weeks that he had proposed the withdrawal of the town, impossible to defend, or for the tactics used and has limited itself to blaming its partners for not having sent enough material on time.

With a press in which criticism is limited, as the aforementioned article shows, to reproaching that the withdrawal “came too late”, Zelensky has had no difficulty in imposing his discourse. Ukraine has even taken advantage of its mistakes to exaggerate the danger and provoke its allies in the desired reaction: fear of defeat. Since the fall of Avdeevka, major Western media outlets have described the trenches west of Avdeevka as rudimentary, have questioned the defense plans of the previous commander in chief, and have proliferated articles warning about the risk of Ukrainian defeat. Zelensky's team, which has never been a stranger to using defeat for its own benefit, has not even tried to counter reports about the possibility of high casualties in its army or the difficulties of mobilization and has focused on further exaggerating the intensity of the battle and the imbalance of forces. Always without doubting what the outcome of the war will be, the “mandatory” defeat of Russia, Zelensky and his team have shown a dramatic situation, have blamed their partners for the casualties and have presented the simple recipe to turn the situation around. the situation and snatch a decisive victory from the jaws of defeat. The solution to all problems is, as has been usual until now, for the West to supply more weapons. In the last week it has been seen, for example in the actions of Emmanuel Macron, who in a meeting with French parliamentary groups raised the possibility of a Russian advance on Kiev or Odessa, that the West has understood the danger that the Ukrainian authorities want to see. be perceived.

Russian troops are still fighting for positions west of Orlovka or Berdichy and have not yet reached Ukraine's second line of defense around Donetsk. A little further to the east, the approach towards Chasov Yar remains practically paralyzed and progress on the Kupyansk front is also slow, if at all. Finally, in the Rabotino area, Russia gradually manages to recover the few sectors of the Surovikin line captured by Ukraine during the summer offensive of 2023. The initiative on the land front is firmly in Russian hands, but there are no signs of a major offensive nor of the Ukrainian collapse that would require a deep rupture that could endanger the integrity of Ukraine or its large cities.

In its obsession with using defeat to achieve the goal of obtaining the desired weaponry, Ukraine has chosen to present the war as a fight between Western and Eastern weaponry . Kiev's troops have not suffered a defeat in Avdeevka nor do they risk it costing them the battle for western Donetsk, but it is the United States and the European Union (Europe in the Ukrainian president's way of speaking) that are They risk losing another. “Zelensky has warned the United States and Europe against losing to Shahed drones or Russian fighters,” headlined Ukrainska Pravda this week , presenting the war as a fight between Taurus and F-16 missiles against Iranian drones and Soviet fighters. In his usual dramatic tone, former actor Zelensky stated that “it will be one of the most regrettable pages in history if America or Europe are defeated by Iranian Shahed drones or Russian fighters.”

War is limited to the calculation of resources and the value of weapons. That is, at least, the narrative that the Office of the President of Ukraine wants to present, a narrative in which there is no question of the level of casualties or why Ukrainian recruiters have to patrol, like attack dogs, potential soldiers those to mobilize by force. The political agenda must be limited to planning deliveries, increasing military production and managing an even greater and more constant flow of financing with which to achieve the promised victory, which did not occur last summer for a single reason: Ukraine did not receive enough weapons. . To this we must add, perhaps, a second argument: Russia knew about the Ukrainian plans, a useful approach to justify internal repression. Because in Ukraine, every opponent can quickly and artificially become a dangerous Russian agent .

Luckily for Zelensky, the president continues to receive the support of his most valued constituency: the Western political class. The most recent example occurred just yesterday. In a video with clear aesthetics and electoral content, the United Kingdom Minister of Defense affirmed in kyiv the Western duty to guarantee “that freedom triumphs over tyranny.” From the country whose regime was born from an irregular change of Government, which began an anti-terrorist operation against its own population, began to outlaw opposition political parties in 2015 and praises groups and people who fought against the Soviet Union - then an ally of countries like the United Kingdom - hand in hand with Nazi Germany, Grant Shapps claimed to be in Kiev "to make an appeal to the democratic world." Highlighting the British contribution to the Ukrainian war effort, with the announcement of the delivery of 10,000 drones, the minister insisted that “all nations must now do the same to ensure that freedom triumphs over tyranny.” “What will we say if we let a democratic country be taken over by a dictator like Putin?” He continued to say “what would this say about our values ​​and our democracy?” Reality, desires and fiction come together in this Ukrainian and Western story always with the same objective: to continue the war until its objectives are achieved. Whatever the lives it costs. Although the 300 , wounded in the battle, have to be abandoned.

https://slavyangrad.es/2024/03/09/29300/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
📝 Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (for the period from March 2 to March 8, 2024)

- 24 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered in a week;

— The Russian Armed Forces in the Donetsk direction over the course of a week occupied more advantageous positions and repelled eight counterattacks of the Ukrainian army;

— Over the course of a week, the Russian Armed Forces improved the position along the front line in the Kupyansk direction and repelled 24 counterattacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the enemy lost more than 540 people;

— Over the course of a week, the Russian Armed Forces carried out 34 group strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs, the arsenals of the fuel base and the deployment points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were hit;

— Aviation and air defense systems shot down a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, five Storm Shadow missiles and a Patriot air defense missile within a week;

— The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost almost 2 thousand people, 103 pieces of equipment, 10 field warehouses in the Donetsk direction in a week;

— Within a week, the Russian Armed Forces improved the situation along the front line in the South Donetsk direction, the enemy lost up to 1,620 troops;

— Within a week, the Russian Armed Forces took more advantageous positions in the Kherson direction and repelled two attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy lost more than 295 troops;

— The Russian Armed Forces in the Avdeevka direction continue to occupy more advantageous positions; in a week, 65 counterattacks of Ukrainian Armed Forces assault groups were repelled;

— In a week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost 7 tanks in the Avdiivka direction, two of them Abrams, and more than 2,860 military personnel.

In the South Donetsk direction , units of the Vostok group of troops improved the situation along the front line and defeated units of the 65th , 72nd, 118th mechanized , 58th motorized infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, 102nd , 105th and 128th military defense brigades in the areas of Novodonetskoye settlements , Ugledar, Dobropolye, Shevchenko, Staromayorskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic and Malinovka of the Zaporozhye region.

In addition, three counterattacks by units of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled in the area of ​​the village of Vodyanoye, Donetsk People's Republic.

Enemy losses amounted to up to 1,620 military personnel, six tanks, 13 armored combat vehicles, 28 vehicles, seven field artillery guns, a Grad MLRS combat vehicle , two Strela-10 air defense systems , as well as a British- made Stormer air defense system. .

▫️In the Kherson direction, Russian troops took up more advantageous positions and inflicted comprehensive fire damage on manpower and equipment of the 65th , 117th , 118th mechanized , 128th mountain assault brigades , 35th, 36th, 38th marine brigades , 14th, 23rd National Guard Brigade and 126th Terrestrial Defense Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Malaya Tokmachka, Pyatikhatki, Nesteryanka in the Zaporozhye region, Ivanovka, Sadovoe, Mikhailovka, Antonovka and Tokarevka in the Kherson region.

In the area of ​​the village of Rabotino, Zaporozhye region, two attacks by assault groups of the 118th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled .

Enemy losses amounted to more than 295 military personnel, two tanks, 22 vehicles, nine field artillery pieces, as well as two US-made HIMARS MLRS launchers .

▫️During the week , aviation and air defense systems shot down: a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, five Storm Shadow cruise missiles made in the UK, a Patriot anti-aircraft guided missile made in the USA, seven Hammer guided bombs made in France, 33 rockets US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems , as well as 796 unmanned aerial vehicles.



▫️Within a week, 24 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered .

📊In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 576 aircraft, 267 helicopters, 14,658 unmanned aerial vehicles, 482 anti-aircraft missile systems, 15,400 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,234 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 8,322 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 19,498 units of special military vehicles. (.....)

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

SITREP 3/7/24: Macron Raises Rhetoric Temp, First HIMARS Kill, Black Sea Fleet Setbacks & More

Image SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER
MAR 7, 2024

<snip>

The next pressing matter to briefly talk about is the escalating danger in the Black Sea, as another Russian missile boat, the Sergei Kotov, was just potentially destroyed or heavily damaged by Ukraine’s increasingly lethal naval drones.

This comes after a brutal two month stretch which saw the corvette Ivanovets hit in January, the landing ship Cesar Kunikov destroyed in February, and now the Sergei Kotov in March. These three specifically were all hit by naval drones in a span of two months, and all three incidents pointed to various levels of irresponsibility, neglect, or outright incompetence of the Black Sea Fleet.

Image

Why do I say that for these in particular? Because some of the previous hit ships, like the Novocherkassk landing ship, were hit by missiles or sabotage of some sort, which is far more excusable as it’s nigh impossible to get away from a saturation missile/drone attack, as they can bypass any borders. But naval drones continually hitting ships out in the open is a different thing, particularly when those ships may not have even needed to be risked out on the water outside of the port anti-drone nets and barriers. All three of the recent ships appeared to have been hit near the roadsteads of nearby ports.

Some may recall that late last year after the Novocherkassk was “hit” in Feodosia, I dismissed Ukraine’s efforts because it became only the third ship to actually be fully destroyed in the war, after the Moskva and Saratov—not counting minor vessels or tugs—the rest all being repaired or under current repair. However, times change and we update our analysis. It’s no longer a laughing matter with three ships being destroyed in succession since that time. Now it’s becoming serious and can no longer be dismissed.

However, caveat: there is actually no definitive proof the latest ship was destroyed. People just assumed so due to the videos of the hits—but it can clearly be seen it’s right next to port and some reports do claim it was towed but may have sunk, but there is no actual proof one way or the other. Being that close to port gives a very good chance of salvaging the ship so, sticking to facts only, I can’t in good faith report it as ‘destroyed’ without actual confirmation. Some may call it ‘cope’, but in reality it’s simple due diligence.

When the Novocherkassk was hit in port in December, literally the very next day satellite photos appeared clearly showing the wreck beneath the waterline. The latest ships were hit and allegedly “sunk” in very shallow water right near port, with at least one or two of them even having been towed back to the actual port itself—yet not a single photo exists of their ‘destruction’. I think it’s a reasonable request to ask pro-UA analysts to provide any evidence at all before we unequivocally deem the ships destroyed. The Cesar Kunikov I believe was confirmed, and you can see it sinking in the footage—but the others, no. Of course the likelihood is high that they were destroyed; but the only data we have is that the crews in large part survived in each case. After all, we have a slew of photos of the British ‘Rubymar’ sunk by Houthis days ago:

Image

Surely the omniscient NATO ISR can get us something if the ships are actually sunk.

After the previous two ships were hit, there were reports that the Admiral of the Black Sea Fleet was removed for his incompetence:

It is reported that Admiral Viktor Sokolov has finally been removed from the post of commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet

It seems that it has become impossible to ignore the latest heavy losses of the fleet, in the person of the missile boat Ivanovets and the large landing craft Caesar Kunikov, although these are far from the only “merits” of the admiral.

Sokolov has held this position since August 14, 2022, replacing Admiral Igor Osipov, under whose strict leadership the Russian Black Sea Fleet lost its flagship GRKR "Moscow" and failed to control the northwestern waters of the Black Sea. Sokolov also achieved the loss of stable control even over its southern part.

We hope that the third candidate for this execution position in two years will finally be able to correct the mistakes of his predecessors and find a solution that will allow the Black Sea Fleet not only to hide in the bays from Ukrainian missiles and kamikaze boats, but also to once again exert a significant influence on the course of hostilities.


It’s impossible to confirm the rumors, but some claimed that this ‘admiral’ went so far as to prohibit ship crews from using specialized outside equipment that could help detect drones, including night vision devices. If true, it is certainly an indictment of the fact that many stodgy old Russian commanders remain in service, who are incapable of adapting to the exigencies of modern warfare, and under whose inept and inflexible leadership countless people and irreplaceable equipment have been lost. I say irreplaceable because in the case of the Ropucha class landing ships, they are of a large class of Soviet-era ships that are not reproduceable today—in fact, Poland manufactured the originals for the USSR, anyway.

Let’s take a look at how the latest attack actually transpired to understand the Black Sea Fleet’s shortcomings in responding to such threats.

Firstly, here are the last known videos of the latest ship, the Sergei Kotov, as filmed from a nearby vessel. Note how close the port is in the back, and watch to the end to see the hit of the first surface drone: (Video at link.)

The ship appears to be carrying out at least the most standard procedures for such a case, which are full steam ahead to try and outrun the drones, and even what appears to be an attempt at a smoke-screen discharge to blind the drone’s sights. Unfortunately, since the drones operate using Starlink satellite, they are not really jammable with classic EW warfare.

Now here is the footage Ukraine released from the very drones, showing them hitting the Kotov—thus you can see the battle from both sides:

It was said that ~10 or more drones were used and possibly up to 4-5 were disabled or shot down, but it clearly is not enough.

But what is far more elucidating was Fighterbomber’s exclusive release of the onboard footage from the previous Cesar Kunikov landing ship hit. They blanked out much of the audio for OPSEC reasons, but the footage alone is very depressingly telling: (Video at link.)

The message from the sailors who sent him the footage: (Video at link.)

Hello comrade FB!

The crew of BDC "Caesar Kunikov" repelled the attack of BECs (drones) with all available forces and means, the battle lasted 20 minutes.

4 out of 10 BECs were destroyed. The 5th BEC hit the BDC CK in the stern (rear propeller), thereby immobilizing the ship, then 6,7,8,9, BECs in turn, hit the BDC on the left side in the area of the midship (middle) and closer to the stern, in order to capsize the ship (from the inflow of a large amount of water from one side).

The 9th BEC partially entered the breach made by the previous BEC and detonated almost inside.

The BDC could not be saved (roll was rapidly increasing, the ship was lying on the left side).

From the moment of detection of the enemy BECs and the beginning of the battle, and up to the complete sinking of the BDC, a little more than 40 minutes passed.

The BDC crew left the ship on life rafts, without loss of L/S, evacuated all secret documentation and part of the secret equipment with weapons.

The last 10th BEC, conducted observation (filming) of the dying ship until the moment of sinking, after which, the 10th BEC tried to attack the tugboat accompanying the BDK Tsesar Kunikov, but was destroyed by a group of PDSS on board"

At this point, the crew is being made into cowards and scoundrels.

I removed the sound from the video, but I'm sure the command has it in full. There's a battle, according to the best traditions of grandfathers.

Personally, I saw the crew working hard to the last man.

The crew, I think, at least deserves not to be made scoundrels.


Despite how heroically they fought, what it shows to me is no clear systematized way of dealing with the drone threat. It’s just a randomized mad scramble of the crew to fire from any which side, without any specialized equipment, night vision, etc. Just random, inaccurate small arms fire which is obviously a total joke and in no way can deal with such a threat on a formulized consistent basis.

The problem is—there isn’t too much you can do shipside once the threat is already that close. There are all sorts of automated guns and fancy CIWS type stuff people have brought up, but none of it would work against these drones which swarm madly like sharks in fast, random patterns. The solution has to start with a far better detection range to begin with. And in order to achieve that, it requires vast, powerful ISR capabilities over the Black Sea, which includes aerial reconnaissance and potentially AWACs style planes, though I’m not certain if their radars can detect such targets.

However, heavy class, long-endurance drones with sensitive IR optics—amongst other sensors—certainly should be sweeping the Black Sea up and down. But Russia has demonstrated grave shortcomings in Black Sea overwatch, regularly allowing even Ukrainian manned boats to land on Crimean shores, for instance. Sure, they easily eliminate the troops once they do land, as they did in the recent attack weeks ago. But the problem is: the fact that they can even approach the shore and land on it to begin with shows a total lack of any sort of sensitive long range ISR over the Black Sea. Things simply come and go and Russia has very little detection capability there it seems. Even when missiles fly at Crimea, they are generally shot down directly over their targets and rarely over the Black Sea itself—though lately that has increased somewhat—once again, due to a lack of AWACs and long range regular detection sweeps. Regular is the key term: I don’t mean flying an AWACS once a day for a few hours there, I mean 24/7 presence in the same way NATO has over the western part of the sea.

Mig-31s and even Su-30/35s could potentially detect such incoming naval drones with their powerful look-down radars, as well as naval helicopters with various equipment—Russia has radar-towing naval Ka-31s, for instance:

Image

But as I said, it requires a constant presence—not scrambling at the first sign of a threat, by which point it’s already too late. This is why long-endurance heavy class ISR drones are ideal for this—they can be set up to sweep the entire Black Sea top to bottom 24/7, even on automated mode; but alas, this is one area where Russia is decades behind most other countries, still unable to field a usable long range, long-endurance reconnaissance UAV with sensitive and advanced enough electronic suites—akin to RQ-4 Global Hawks or even the advanced MQ-9 variants with the infamous ‘Gorgon Stare’ suite.

As for Ukraine’s naval drones, we know they use Starlinks which emit signals that can technically be picked up. Sure, Starlink is an advanced phased array which means it doesn’t “bleed” its signal in every direction but is highly directional toward precisely the position of the satellite, which means it’s likely difficult to detect it from afar. However, I’ve read Russian troop reports on the frontline that they have managed to detect the Starlink dishes because even the phased array setup does bleed out some signal laterally, which means a drone with sensitive enough equipment should be able to detect the Ukrainian naval drones if the problem is taken serious enough by the people in charge—but alas…

Incidentally, it’s come to light today that a passing merchant vessel flagged the drones nearly 150km south of Crimea hours before they hit the Sergei Kotov:

❗️As reported, enemy unmanned boats (that later attacked at Feosia) were spotted on the afternoon of March 4 by the crew of the ship "Ella" at a distance of 237 (127 nautical miles) km from Feodosia.

Information about the discovery was transmitted to the management of the shipping company.

Why this information was not passed on further remains a mystery...(Video at link.)


The map gives us insight to just how far south the drone heading veers in order to avoid Russia’s Black Sea detection sweeps:

Image

They stay very far away from the coasts when approaching the target in a highly circuitous course, which also reveals that the drones’ long range endurance is pretty incredible.

Some have suggested going back to the WWI and WWII era of ship anti-torpedo nets:

Image

It would be the naval equivalent of the tank ‘cope cage’, now standard across the battlefield.

Lastly, Fighterbomber writes that Russia clearly has no capability to deal with this threat as of yet and so for now it’s best to retreat everything out:

It can be stated that BECs have shown their highest efficiency, and accept that at the moment large ships cannot effectively resist BECs.

Speed, night, stealth and the number of BECs participating in the attack solve issues with thermal imagers and additional fire weapons on board and in general with everything.

I don’t know what conclusions can be drawn other than the fact that now it is necessary to accept this fact, move all large ships beyond the effective range of BECs, close mooring areas with engineering means to prevent BECs from damaging ships at the berths, transfer the tasks of the Black Sea Fleet to small and high-speed boats and boats type "Raptor", submarines and aircraft.

Well, it’s natural to speed up cutting your BECs.

Along the way, around the clock testing somewhere in Vladivostok various options for defensive weapons, detection, guidance and electronic warfare equipment on existing Navy ships, endlessly simulating BEC attacks in practice.

I repeat, repeat. Today we need to simulate not attacks by submarines of a hypothetical enemy, but attacks by high-speed, small-sized targets with television guidance.

Well, for the best, all this should be done, as usual, yesterday.


Would any other navy in the world be able to deal with such a threat? Personally, I doubt it. We’ve seen recent humiliation after humiliation with the British Navy, for instance, unable to even sail its premier ships anymore. The German Navy suffered an even worse humiliation, firing two world-class SM-2 missiles accidentally at an American drone, with both missiles failing, as reported by BILD.

Image

The U.S. Navy would likely have more and better sensors like night vision optics to at least stand a chance, but ultimately a swarm attack of the same caliber would likely take them out too.

And don’t forget who’s really directing these attacks:

Image
https://archive.is/i7qRa

So, ultimately, while plenty of criticism can be heaped on some of Russia’s efforts or oversights in this case, NATO would do no better under similar circumstances. And anyone who disagrees is free to offer up a substantive example of a parallel peer-level conflict where NATO had to solve an even remotely similar strategic dilemma as what Russia is up against.

Oh, I forgot, there was one semi-comparable case, and in that scenario the UK lost more capital ships than Russia in a fraction of the time:

Image


Ultimately, while it’s true the naval losses have no real bearing on the Ukrainian conflict itself, because it in no way helps Ukraine in the fight on the ground, it does put some wind in the sails of the propaganda effort, as the recent Black Sea successes have become the only holdfast for the pro-UA side to cling to as putative ‘evidence’ of its winning posture:

Image

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... s-rhetoric..
(Much more at link, do check him out.)

******

For Shits And Giggles. 2023.
No, I mean it. Get a load of this, LOL))

Germany’s Leopard-2 Tanks Will Help Crush Russia. The German decision to send tanks to Ukraine is a turning point. It is now clear that Vladimir Putin signed the death warrant of his regime in invading Ukraine.

This is from January 2023. They ARE that stupid and illiterate. I love internet--it documents and saves so much in terms of such a crap, which is an exhibit A of these people having no clue.

The blunt fact is that Biden is becoming a war president. Putin reckoned he could roll over Biden. He miscalculated. He thought he could sweep over Ukraine in a week. He was wrong. He thought the Western alliance would crack up. Wrong again. No one has done more to revivify the Western alliance than Putin. As the West ramps up military production, he is mired in a conflict that threatens the continuation of his tyrannical rule over Russia. Now that he has inadvertently aroused America from its post-Cold War torpor and unified Ukrainians in their resolve to oppose him, Putin faces a fight to the finish—one that he cannot win. It is now clear that when Putin invaded Ukraine, he signed his death warrant.

Jacob Heilbrunn wrote this high school paper level drivel. I wish I could see his arrogant mug today. But then again, he may not even recognize what hit him due to pathetically low level of education and awareness of American journalism. I love the passage about ramping military production up. Yes, those Abrams tanks are rolling fresh from assembly lines... ah, wait, the US does not produce tanks anymore and, in fact, highly likely fell behind tank development dramatically. In related news (thanks Kazman):

The future of the U.S. Air Force's secretive Mayhem program is uncertain amid a funding issue that could at least lead to a major delay. Mayhem's stated focus has been on demonstrating an air-launched hypersonic air vehicle capable of performing strike and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, but the apparent demand for this capability within the service at all is now unclear. There could still be interest going forward in certain components of the project, including research and development work on advanced high-speed jet engines. The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) awarded a contract with a $334 million ceiling for work on Mayhem, including "delivering a larger class air-breathing hypersonic system," to Leidos back in 2022. At that time, the company announced that Calspan, the Draper Laboratory, and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions. were also part of its team to design the Mayhem air vehicle, which it said would be powered by a scramjet engine. The first details about this project emerged publicly in 2020 and The War Zone has been following it closely since then.

Yes, hypersonics are hard, really hard and this is even before you can manufacture them serially, let alone make them do what they are supposed to do.

Image

The picture though is cool... Another one bites the dust(c).

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/03 ... -2023.html

Yeah, Sure...

A classic exceptionalist BS by people who only sense, but are not able to grasp intellectually, what is unfolding. Wet dreamers.


Ukraine and its Western backers have precious little common ground with Russia. Yet all the key players seem to agree on one critical issue: the war in Ukraine will end in negotiations. As Russian President Vladimir Putin told the conservative broadcaster Tucker Carlson in a recent interview: “We are willing to negotiate.” A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, while casting doubt on Putin’s sincerity, retorted in a statement that “both we and President Zelensky have said numerous times that we believe this war will end through negotiations.” The absence of decisive battlefield outcomes over the past two years has made the alternative to a negotiated end (one side’s absolute victory) seem like a fantasy.

The war is already ending and it will end in Russia dictating surrender conditions on the West, not on 404 which does not exist anymore as a viable state. I will remind those ignoramuses from CFR that Putin was explicit in his interview with Tucker that the US has very little time left to exit this with some dignity left. I think this time is over, but I could be mistaken. As always, CFR nincompoops failed to understand the context. Vicki Nuland did, albeit too late.

Even if a deal is currently out of the question, all parties should take steps now to bring about the possibility of talks in the future. In the middle of a war, it is hard to know whether an adversary is genuinely ready to end the fighting or cynically talks of peace only to further the aims of war. The challenge of discerning an adversary’s intentions is nearly impossible in the absence of dialogue. Therefore, it is necessary to open channels of communication so as to be in a position to take advantage of the opportunity to pursue peace when that opportunity comes.

LOL, the US lost the war, fvcking idiots, and it is the battlefield not some diplomatic maneuvering, which is important but derivative, which defines the outcome. The US sits on sky high piles of bodies in 404--the result of military and political incompetence and dialogue is becoming a monologue, the only outcome which was ever possible. Now, they better learn what Russia's readiness to talk is based upon. I'll give a hint, and I quote--a recognition of realities on the ground. Meanwhile, 404 evacuates a truck load of towns in Kharkov (Kupyansk) direction. Just because they want to, right?

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/03/yeah-sure.html

*******

Air defense is working!
March 8, 18:33

Image

The Ukrainian Armed Forces decided to respond to the recent stories of our air defense fire on their aircraft.
Today, in the Krasnoarmeisk area, Ukrainian air defense successfully destroyed the Storm Shadow carrier - a Su-24 bomber, which was returning to the airfield after the strike. The pilot died.

About the downing of a jet plane in the area of ​​Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk)

Today at about 15:00, residents of Pokrovsk began to receive reports of a strong explosion in the south of the city. Shortly before the explosion, the activity of enemy combat aircraft in the square was recorded.

🔻According to the analysis of the information received, it was established that the launch of an air defense missile was recorded from the area of ​​​​the village of Novoolenovka, after which the plane attempted to make a 180-degree turn around the vertical axis while maintaining a horizontal position (the so-called “kerr” maneuver - often used to change direction flight or turn in space), releasing heat traps.

While performing an evasive maneuver, an air defense missile hit the tail of the aircraft, after which the plane began to dive sharply towards the ground and crashed. A strong fire broke out at the site, which was accompanied by the sounds of secondary detonation.

Coordinates:
48.2308897, 37.1581913 - crash area
48.1449667, 37.0835787 - air defense missile launch area
*coordinate values ​​are approximate

🔻At the moment, the fact of the downing of a Su-24M fighter-bomber of the Ukrainian Air Force in the area of ​​the village of Shevchenko has been confirmed. Considering the fact that the air defense missile was launched from the area of ​​the village of Novoolenovka (temporarily occupied territory of the DPR), we can safely speak of “friendly fire” - the Ukrainian air defense system fired at its own aircraft in the so-called. "safe area" when returning to a permanent base (probably the Aviatorskoye airfield in Dnepropetrovsk).

Also, based on the available information, the pilot did not eject.

https://t.me/don_partizan/4421 - zinc

Since there are few such bombers left, this is a serious loss for Ukraine.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9011259.html

Barbarossa 2.0 in slow motion
March 9, 10:08 am

Image

Barbarossa 2.0 in slow motion

It's amazing to see how coordinated these attacks are from Paris, from the German generals, they are a mirror image of what Lloyd Austin said before all this happened. Arms dealer Austin, as we all know, said that if Ukraine loses, then NATO will inevitably go to war with Russia.

First, this is false because NATO is already at war with Russia. This is a NATO war against Russia using Ukraine as cannon fodder. But at least Austin didn't turn on the brightest light bulb in the room. At least he finally let the cat out of the bag.

And the cat actually jumped out screaming. Because then Macron redoubled his efforts and for the first time announced that NATO troops were on the territory of Ukraine. Everyone knows that NATO advisers, mercenaries and even some special forces are on the territory of the country. Everyone knows this. But obviously the European public, who have been completely brainwashed, does not know this.

And, of course, it is worth mentioning the four German dunces, the guys whose password is 1234, who are surprisingly high-ranking officers. This isn't a bunch of idiots, okay? There are a bunch of idiots, but they are of a higher rank.

Including the high command of the German Air Force. And they said, “Okay, we can go there. We can use Taurus. We'll send them 50 Taurus or something else." They bombed the Kerch Bridge, and considered that they had the opportunity to deny their guilt. That is, they advertised the act of war, assuming that Russia would simply abandon it. “Okay, let's look at this and, okay, let's do nothing.”

This is another red line that will be crossed and that's okay. And then when they started Operation Spin, they changed the subject. Nobody really discussed anything. “The evil Russians are cheating us. The evil Russians are hacking us. They want to cause a split in NATO.” There was just all this nonsense.

There is currently no substantive discussion of what this war actually means for the collective West. Doesn't exist in Britain or, let alone in Britain, of course, especially in Britain. Because the British, they have what a 300-year difficult period to get into a fight with Russia.

Not in France. In Germany - no. In Italy - no. And the rest don't count. The rest are Chihuahuas. So the problem is that we're now crossing another red line because it's becoming possible, okay? Missiles hitting Russian infrastructure in Russia, and they think there will be no consequences.

You know, the other day I posted something just for fun. There are only three categorical imperatives in life: death, taxes and idiots who think they can attack the Russians and there will be no consequences. And they will never learn. That's exactly what they do. This is Barbarossa 2.0 in slow motion before our eyes. This is completely absurd.

(c) Pepe Escobar

https://russian.rt.com/inotv/2024-03-09 ... a-Zapada-v - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9012988.html

You're not carrying firewood...
March 9, 8:13 am

Image

A crowd of Pinocchios is traveling on a bus...
An attempt to escape from Ukraine in a minibus with tickets for 10,000 euros.

(Video at link.)

Now they will go to meat.

(Video at link.)

And more beautiful things from the Putivl region.

(Video at link.)

Mobilization in Ukraine is proceeding normally (c) Danilov

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

Post Reply