The Long Ecological Revolution

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Tue Oct 17, 2023 2:49 pm

How not to feed a hungry planet
October 11, 2023
India’s fertilizer-intensive ‘Green Revolution’ is a warning, not a blueprint

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by Glenn Davis Stone
Research Professor of Environmental Science, Sweet Briar College

Feeding a growing world population has been a serious concern for decades, but today there are new causes for alarm. Floods, heat waves and other weather extremes are making agriculture increasingly precarious, especially in the Global South.

The war in Ukraine is also a factor. Russia is blockading Ukrainian grain exports, and fertilizer prices have surged because of trade sanctions on Russia, the world’s leading fertilizer exporter.

Amid these challenges, some organizations are renewing calls for a second Green Revolution, echoing the introduction in the 1960s and 1970s of supposedly high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice into developing countries, along with synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Those efforts centered on India and other Asian countries; today, advocates focus on sub-Saharan Africa, where the original Green Revolution regime never took hold.

But anyone concerned with food production should be careful what they wish for. In recent years, a wave of new analysis has spurred a critical rethinking of what Green Revolution-style farming really means for food supplies and self-sufficiency.



As I explain in my book, The Agricultural Dilemma: How Not to Feed the World, the Green Revolution does hold lessons for food production today – but not the ones that are commonly heard. Events in India show why.

A triumphal narrative

There was a consensus in the 1960s among development officials and the public that an overpopulated Earth was heading toward catastrophe. Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 bestseller, The Population Bomb, famously predicted that nothing could stop “hundreds of millions” from starving in the 1970s.

India was the global poster child for this looming Malthusian disaster: Its population was booming, drought was ravaging its countryside and its imports of American wheat were climbing to levels that alarmed government officials in India and the U.S.

Then, in 1967, India began distributing new wheat varieties bred by Rockefeller Foundation plant biologist Norman Borlaug, along with high doses of chemical fertilizer. After famine failed to materialize, observers credited the new farming strategy with enabling India to feed itself.

Borlaug received the 1970 Nobel Peace Prize and is still widely credited with “saving a billion lives.” Indian agricultural scientist M.S. Swaminathan, who worked with Borlaug to promote the Green Revolution, received the inaugural World Food Prize in 1987. Tributes to Swaminathan, who died on Sept. 28, 2023, at age 98, have reiterated the claim that his efforts brought India “self-sufficiency in food production” and independence from Western powers.

Debunking the legend

The standard legend of India’s Green Revolution centers on two propositions. First, India faced a food crisis, with farms mired in tradition and unable to feed an exploding population; and second, Borlaug’s wheat seeds led to record harvests from 1968 on, replacing import dependence with food self-sufficiency.

Recent research shows that both claims are false.

India was importing wheat in the 1960s because of policy decisions, not overpopulation. After the nation achieved independence in 1947, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru prioritized developing heavy industry. U.S. advisers encouraged this strategy and offered to provide India with surplus grain, which India accepted as cheap food for urban workers.

Meanwhile, the government urged Indian farmers to grow nonfood export crops to earn foreign currency. They switched millions of acres from rice to jute production, and by the mid-1960s India was exporting agricultural products.

Borlaug’s miracle seeds were not inherently more productive than many Indian wheat varieties. Rather, they just responded more effectively to high doses of chemical fertilizer. But while India had abundant manure from its cows, it produced almost no chemical fertilizer. It had to start spending heavily to import and subsidize fertilizer.

India did see a wheat boom after 1967, but there is evidence that this expensive new input-intensive approach was not the main cause. Rather, the Indian government established a new policy of paying higher prices for wheat. Unsurprisingly, Indian farmers planted more wheat and less of other crops.

Once India’s 1965-67 drought ended and the Green Revolution began, wheat production sped up, while production trends in other crops like rice, maize and pulses slowed down. Net food grain production, which was much more crucial than wheat production alone, actually resumed at the same growth rate as before.

But grain production became more erratic, forcing India to resume importing food by the mid-1970s. India also became dramatically more dependent on chemical fertilizer.

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India’s Green Revolution wheat boom came at the expense of other crops; the growth rate of overall food grain production did not increase at all. It is doubtful that the ‘revolution’ produced any more food than would have been produced anyway. What increased dramatically was dependence on imported fertilizer. (Glenn Davis Stone; data from India Directorate of Economics and Statistics and Fertiliser Association of India, CC BY-ND)

According to data from Indian economic and agricultural organizations, on the eve of the Green Revolution in 1965, Indian farmers needed 17 pounds (8 kilograms) of fertilizer to grow an average ton of food. By 1980, it took 96 pounds (44 kilograms). So, India replaced imports of wheat, which were virtually free food aid, with imports of fossil fuel-based fertilizer, paid for with precious international currency.

Today, India remains the world’s second-highest fertilizer importer, spending US$17.3 billion in 2022. Perversely, Green Revolution boosters call this extreme and expensive dependence “self-sufficiency.”

The toll of ‘green’ pollution

Recent research shows that the environmental costs of the Green Revolution are as severe as its economic impacts. One reason is that fertilizer use is astonishingly wasteful. Globally, only 17% of what is applied is taken up by plants and ultimately consumed as food. Most of the rest washes into waterways, where it creates algae blooms and dead zones that smother aquatic life. Producing and using fertilizer also generates copious greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change.

In Punjab, India’s top Green Revolution state, heavy use of fertilizers and pesticides has contaminated water, soil and food and endangered human health.

In my view, African countries where the Green Revolution has not made inroads should consider themselves lucky. Ethiopia offers a cautionary case. In recent years, the Ethiopian government has forced farmers to plant increasing amounts of fertilizer-intensive wheat, claiming this will achieve “self-sufficiency” and even allow it to export wheat worth $105 million this year. Some African officials hail this strategy as an example for the continent.

But Ethiopia has no fertilizer factories, so it has to import it – at a cost of $1 billion just in the past year. Even so, many farmers face severe fertilizer shortages.

The Green Revolution still has many boosters today, especially among biotech companies that are eager to draw parallels between genetically engineered crops and Borlaug’s seeds. I agree that it offers important lessons about how to move forward with food production, but actual data tells a distinctly different story from the standard narrative. In my view, there are many ways to pursue less input-intensive agriculture that will be more sustainable in a world with an increasingly erratic climate.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2023/1 ... ry-planet/

More on the Insect Apocalypse
October 15, 2023
New research shows insect decline poses major threat to important tropical crops

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by Ian Angus

My articles on the rapid decline of Earth’s most numerous animals have been widely republished. Read them here: Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four. This news release, issued on October 12 by University College London (UCL), confirms and further emphasizes the dangers posed by the massive destruction of insect life.

Coffee and cocoa plants at risk from pollinator loss

Tropical crops such as coffee, cocoa, watermelon and mango may be at risk due to the loss of insect pollinators, finds a new study led by UCL and Natural History Museum researchers.

Published in Science Advances, the study explores the intricate interplay between climate change, land use change, and their impact on pollinator biodiversity, ultimately revealing significant implications for global crop pollination.

The study, which compiled data from 1,507 crop growing sites around the world and catalogued 3,080 insect pollinator species, exposes a concerning trend – the combined pressures of climate change and agricultural activities have led to substantial declines in both the abundance and richness of insect pollinators.

Crops which depend on pollination by animals to some degree make up around 75% of crops. The model created by the research team looked at which pollination dependent crops were most at threat all the way up to 2050 in the hope of providing a warning to both the agricultural and conservation communities.

Lead author Dr. Joe Millard, who completed the study as part of his PhD at the UCL Centre for Biodiversity & Environment Research, before moving to the Natural History Museum London, said:

“Our research indicates that the tropics are likely most at risk when it comes to crop production from pollinator losses, primarily due to the interaction of climate change and land use. While localized risks are highest in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and south-east Asia, the implications of this extend globally via the trade in pollination dependent crops.”

The tropics were identified as having a heightened vulnerability to the interaction of climate change and land use, meaning crops such a coffee, cocoa, mango and watermelon which all rely on insect pollination are at the greatest risk. These crops play vital roles in both local economies and global trade and their reduction could cause increased income insecurity for millions of small-scale farmers in these regions.

Dr. Millard continued:

“As insects decline, due to being unable to cope with the interacting effects of climate change and land use, so too will the crops that rely on them as pollinators. In some cases, these crops could be pollinated by hand but this would require more labor and more cost.”

The study also underscores the importance of pollinator abundance and richness in delivering pollination services. It is evident that efforts to mitigate climate change could significantly reduce the risk to future crop production, but challenges remain.

As the world grapples with the intricate web of climate change, land use, and biodiversity loss, this study serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of ecosystems and the critical role played by pollinators in sustaining agriculture and food security.

Senior author Dr. Tim Newbold (UCL Centre for Biodiversity & Environment Research, UCL Biosciences) said:

“Climate change poses grave threats not only to the natural environment and biodiversity, but also to human well-being, as the loss of pollinators can threaten the livelihoods of people across the globe who depend on crops that depend on animal pollination. Our findings underscore the urgent need to take global action to mitigate climate change, alongside efforts to slow down land use changes and protect natural habitats to avoid harming insect pollinators.”
This is the Abstract of the study described in UCL’s News Release.

Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use
Science Advances, October 12, 2023

Insect pollinator biodiversity is changing rapidly, with potential consequences for the provision of crop pollination. However, the role of land use–climate interactions in pollinator biodiversity changes, as well as consequent economic effects via changes in crop pollination, remains poorly understood.

We present a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance and richness and predictions of the risk to crop pollination from the inferred changes. Using a dataset containing 2673 sites and 3080 insect pollinator species, we show that the interactive combination of agriculture and climate change is associated with large reductions in insect pollinators.

As a result, it is expected that the tropics will experience the greatest risk to crop production from pollinator losses. Localized risk is highest and predicted to increase most rapidly, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Via pollinator loss alone, climate change and agricultural land use could be a risk to human well-being.
https://climateandcapitalism.com/2023/1 ... pocalypse/

This is real and scares me more than most of our basket of woes.Thirty Five years ago I could set up a light trap for insects and get deluged with a vast assortment of species. Today, 15 miles from that location and about a miles from a river with a pond alongside the driveway and the porch light attracts a paltry collection. Chuck Wills Widow, a bird that feeds on large insects at night has disappeared from our neighborhood where it had been common in season. Other bird species populations fluctuate but the trend is down. Reptile diversity over 20 years is down, frog and toad calls are waning. Not good, not good at all.

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Tanzanian farmers are paying for “conservation” with their land and lives
For over 15 years, small farmers and pastoralists in Tanzania’s Mbarali have been facing threats of eviction, criminalization and violent attacks by the state to expand the Ruaha National Park

October 16, 2023 by Tanupriya Singh

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Photo: Tanzania National Parks/Facebook

Located in Tanzania’s Southern Highlands, the district of Mbarali in the Mbeya region has long been considered the country’s “rice basket”. However, for the past year, smallholder farmers in the area have been unable to cultivate the grain even to securely feed themselves, let alone produce for the market.

These farmers are among 21,252 people in Mbarali who are facing eviction from their land under the guise of a ‘biodiversity conservation’ project— namely, the expansion of the Ruaha National Park (RUNAPA) — being undertaken by the Tanzanian government, with funding from the World Bank.

There is an extensive history of displacement of local communities along the Great Ruaha River, that runs through parts of Mbarali. But much of what is unfolding now in the district dates back to a government notice (G.N. 28) issued in 2008, when the government initiated plans to expand the area of RUNAPA. Among the areas demarcated for this expansion, which included the Usangu Game Reserve and the Ihefu wetlands, were local villages.

Speaking to Peoples Dispatch, Esther (name changed), who has been among those at the forefront of the struggle in Mbarali, stated that at the time, residents of one ward as well as one village and two hamlets in a separate ward in the district were slated for removal. However, she said, the people were not given any compensation and were essentially left to fend for themselves.

“Over 90% of elders [among the displaced] have died since 2008 because it was difficult for them to move and adjust to a new environment,” Esther said.

Trespassers on their own land?
A report published by Tanzania’s National Audit Office in 2009 also noted that there was no evidence to suggest that a sum of USD 3.3 million which had been authorized as compensation to affected people had indeed been disbursed.

Over the next few years, there were further reports of expansion plans. However, after president John Pombe Joseph Magufuli assumed office in 2015, these plans were halted.

“During this time, the president was provided with differing narratives regarding the situation in Mbarali,” Esther said. “The district and regional commissioners insisted in their reports that the villagers were trespassers, that the area was not residential, that people were claiming land that was not theirs.”

“Meanwhile, independent commissions were saying otherwise,” she added. “They documented that there were schools, hospitals and houses in the area. That these were recognized villages and people had been living there since 1974.”

In January 2019, President Magufuli ordered the immediate suspension of the removal of villages and townships said to be located in reserve areas. He further called upon relevant ministers to determine the process of formalizing these villages, and to identify areas within reserves and forests that did not have wildlife or tree cover but with fertile soils to be distributed to herders and farmers who were struggling to find land to raise animals and cultivate crops.

In 2020, a ministerial delegation was dispatched to Mbarali to see the “real situation” in the district and to advise the president accordingly. After president Magufuli’s death in 2021, the situation began to change, Esther said. “The authorities of RUNAPA started putting up beacons (boundary markers)”.

On October 25, 2022, the Minister for Lands, Housing, and Human Settlement Developments, Dr. Angeline Mabula, made a public announcement that the villages of Luhanga, Madundasi, Msanga, Iyala, and Kalambo, along with 47 hamlets within the Mbeya region would be deregistered and their residents evicted for the expansion of RUNAPA.

“Since then, people have not been able to cultivate anything. They do not know the fate of their land. Legal actions have been taken against people in the area…women have been harassed, they have been stripped of their clothes,” Esther said, adding that brutal violence had occurred at the hands of rangers from the Tanzania National Parks Authority (TANAPA), including people being attacked with machetes that had been heated on fires.

Similar, and often fatal, violence was also recorded in a report prepared by the Mbarali Pastoralists Association. It details attacks on pastoralists in search of forage areas by TANAPA forces and the police between the period of 2017 and 2021.

The incidents of violence include people being shot, their cattle being slaughtered, people being chased, run over with a vehicle, and multiple cases of people being hung by their neck, including a 14-year-old child.

“The people are asking a simple question— How can you remove us?” Esther said. “People do not know where they will live, they do not know how they will feed themselves…if you [the minister] say I should leave, where should I go? What will you give me if I leave? This move of the government, what does it really want to do, if not to kill me?”

Mbarali villagers seek court action
Approximately 1,000 families in Mbarali have now approached the High Court of Tanzania, Mbeya Division against the government’s plans to evict them.

A group of farmers also spoke about the conditions in the district in front of the then Chairperson of the Permanent Parliamentary Committee during the 2022 Annual General Meeting of Mtandao wa Vikundi vya Wakulima Tanzania or the National Network of Small-Scale Farmers Groups in Tanzania (MVIWATA) — the largest smallholder farmers grassroots movement in Tanzania with over 300,000 members.

MVIWATA has organized farmers in Mbarali, including by building farmers’ groups and cooperatives, to facilitate collective marketing of rice, savings and credit mechanisms, and the establishment of an Igurisi rice market.

“Faced with the harsh reality of being displaced from their land, the farmers joined and forged a collective from the affected villages and took the lead in pursuing legal action against the eviction order,” Asha (Name changed), an activist, told Peoples Dispatch.

“All those who have been affected, they are mobilizing, be it to attend court hearings or even to organize financial resources,” she said. “There are those who may have lost their spouses, or their child may have been shot, or they might have been taken into police custody, but there is a belief that they will win and go back to their land.”

In March, the High Court of Tanzania in Mbeya heard one such petition brought by three applicants— including one person from Iyala village (among the five villages slated for removal) — against the Minister for Lands, Housing and Human Settlement Developments, her Permanent Secretary, and the Attorney General.

The petition sought the orders for the writs of Mandamus and Certiorari to quash the October 25, 2022 decision by Minister Mabula, highlighting that no prior notice or right to be heard had been granted to the communities. The applicants had also notified the court that the government was currently carrying out evictions without prior notice nor any compensation.

The applicants had maintained that following their relocation under G.N. 28, there had been no formal allocation of the reallocated areas through a registration process. However, they stated that they had been residing in their villages for more than 20 years.

In a welcome development, the High Court ruled in favor of the petition in August, noting that Mabula had not followed established procedures regarding the transfer of land, and that the people of the village had been “denied their fundamental right to be heard”.

It is also important to note that the evictions and violence facing farming and pastoralist communities in Mbarali is not isolated to the area. Tens of thousands of Maasai people in northern Tanzania are currently resisting displacement, and facing immense violence, in a bid by the government to expand the Ngorongoro Conservation Area and build a game reserve.

Meanwhile, RUNAPA is one of the main beneficiaries of the World Bank’s USD 150 million Resilient Natural Resource Management for Tourism and Growth (REGROW) project. Under this it is one of the four “Protected Areas” slated for “improvement” in a bid to boost tourism in the country.

According to Planetary Health Alliance, this approach, called Fortress Conservation which seeks to “preserve” “pristine” or “untouched” nature finds its roots in colonialism, “where colonial state authorities, seeing the need to police “savage” wildlife-encroaching peoples, undertook technical acts of surveying the biological resources of an area.”

This kind of conservation rhetoric, which when deployed leads to the violence displacement of Indigenous peoples and local communities from their lands, has found currency in official discourses around the climate crisis.

“An overlooked yet critical perspective of protected areas is their primitive accumulation function to transfer wealth and immaterial values of nature from colonies to colonizers,” notes Aby L. Sène-Harper, an environmental social researcher and professor at Clemson University.

“They start with the violent dispossession of Indigenous communities, followed by militarized control over the territory, and commodification of lands and wildlife resources by the corporate imperialists.

“Colonialism, capitalism, and white supremacy birthed this incommensurable ecological crisis including the rapid decline of wildlife populations… But the propaganda machine in the capitalist core has convinced its population that the poor African and their exploding population are the major drivers of wildlife extinction.”

Highlighting the colonial undertones of conservation, Asha says that “these pacts on climate change, on mitigation, on adaptation that are coming out of COP meetings, that try to decide on the fate of the majority of the population are basically greenwashing…they create more crises.”

“You cannot have a model of conservation while you are displacing people from their land. You have people that do not know what they are going to eat tomorrow or where they are going to sleep, if they will have a place to call home.

“Conservation at the expense of displacing people is a trend that is growing and people have warned against this. If we talk about issues of conservation, of actions on climate, without centering the rights of Indigenous people and local communities, we are going to endanger their lives.”

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/10/16/ ... and-lives/

It is this sort of crap, applauded and sometimes expressed in a rather bloodthirsty manner as experienced on message boards 20 years ago which drove me away from the environmental movement and into the arms of Marx.<sic> The idealistic assholes do not understand the implications of the Anthropocene.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Sat Oct 21, 2023 2:18 pm

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John Bellamy Foster on Ecological Marxism
In this extensive interview, John Bellamy Foster, the editor of the long-established and prestigious US-based socialist journal Monthly Review and professor emeritus of sociology at the University of Oregon, discusses ecological Marxism, on which topic Bellamy Foster is an acknowledged global expert, with Jia Keqing, a research fellow at the Academy of Marxism of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Bellamy Foster begins by noting that the term ecological Marxism is widely used in China, but elsewhere the term ecosocialism is more widely used. Ecosocialism, he notes, has a complex history, with a number of its proponents in the 1980s and early 90s coming out of the Marxist and New Left traditions but being highly critical of Karl Marx and the classical Marxist tradition as a whole. “This also involved, in some cases, attempts to wed Marx with other figures, such as Thomas Malthus (falsely viewed as an environmental figure) or Karl Polanyi, who provided a more social-democratic political economy… Much of this was coloured by reactions at the time to the demise of the Soviet Union and attempts to distance ecosocialism from core Marxist traditions.”

However, from the late 1990s, such views began to be challenged by other ecosocialists rooted primarily in the unearthing of Marx’s own ecological critique. Marx, Bellamy Foster notes, “was strongly critical of the Cartesian mechanistic separation of human beings and animals and defended Darwinian evolution, emphasising the human coevolutionary relation to the natural world. He also emphasised the close affinity in terms of intelligence of nonhuman animal species and human beings, and he criticised the brutality toward nonhuman animals that arose within capitalist production… He also indicated that we relate to nature not simply through our production but also sensuously, and through our conceptions of beauty, that is, aesthetically… One of the most brilliant insights of Xi Jinping, in line with both traditional Chinese civilisation and Marxism, was to recognise that the concept of ecological civilisation was not quite enough, and that it needed to be supplemented by a notion of ‘beautiful China’. That is, our aesthetic relation to nature, and thus the intrinsic value of nature, was seen as so important that it needed to be emphasised separately.”

Discussing the relationship between ecological issues and the class struggle, Bellamy Foster traces things back to Friedrich Engels’s 1845 work, The Condition of the Working Class in England: “Engels did not start his analysis with the exploitation of factory workers and conditions in the workplace, though that occupies part of the book, but rather with the capitalist city, housing conditions, air and water pollution, the spread of disease and illnesses of all kinds, and the much higher mortality rate of the working class. In this sense, his work was ecological as much or more than it was economic.

“The struggles of the working class in the early nineteenth century were a product of their whole living conditions, not just factory conditions, even if it was their ability to stop production that was the basis of their class power… For Marx and Engels, working-class struggles were not restricted to strikes and battles by workers within their work sites but were also evident in the entire realm of working-class material existence. Historical materialism has too often been reduced to what we might call historical economism, leaving out wider realms of life.”

Bellamy Foster also incorporates the contradiction between the Global North and the Global South, as well as the complex relationship between working people in the Global North and the Global South, into his analysis, stating:

“If there is a shortage of food or water available to the population in the Global South today, is this due primarily to economic or ecological factors? The fact is that such problems are more and more intertwined given the structural crisis of capital and combined economic and ecological crisis and catastrophe…

“The economic proletariat has often been constrained by the logic of trade unions and the struggle for wages and benefits. The environmental proletariat, which is simply a way of referring to the proletariat in terms of the full complexity of its material existence, is concerned with work relations but also the full range of material life conditions. Such a unified standpoint is necessarily more revolutionary and more capable of grappling with the problems of the age…

“In terms of the question of the more revolutionary character of workers in the Global South, there cannot be the slightest doubt. It is the workers in the periphery of the capitalist system who are faced with the sharp edge of imperialism… Not all of these revolutions have succeeded, of course… Nevertheless, it is the proletariat/peasantry in the Global South that has continually led the way, and where one consequently sees the most radical environmental-proletarian struggles today.”


Bellamy Foster is clear that the historic responsibility for the looming threat of climate catastrophe rests with the imperialist countries and not with China or other countries of the Global South and draws on the work of Jason Hickel, who “demonstrated in an important study in Lancet Planetary Health in September 2020, [that] if we subtract the actual emissions of countries from their fair share, we can then determine which countries have, in their historical emissions, generated excess or surplus emissions. What Hickel was able to determine based on 2014 data was that 40 percent of all excess carbon dioxide emissions in the world added to the atmosphere were attributable to the United States, and 92 percent to the rich nations of the Global North. Meanwhile, China and India both had zero excess emissions. The excess emissions of the countries of the Global North represent an enormous ecological debt in the form of a climate debt to the Global South.”

Jia and Bellamy Foster discuss the ideas advanced by James O’Connor, founding editor of Capitalism, Nature, Socialism, regarding capitalist and socialist approaches to development and the ecological crisis. Bellamy Foster notes that: “Socialism arises out of capitalism and thus is inherently infected by many of its contradictions. The world-economy as a whole is capitalist, which means that socialist countries have to navigate their way through all sorts of external contradictions imposed on them, not least of all imperialist pressures. Nevertheless, what differs between countries who are socialist (or postrevolutionary) and capitalist are the social relations of production, which open up all sorts of new opportunities. China, for example, though beset with ecological problems, has been able to develop modes of ecological management and planning that would be unthinkable in the Global North/West.”

Asked what China should emphasise to tackle the ecological crisis and build an ecological civilisation, he responds: “China’s approach to building an ecological civilisation is radically different from anything that exists in the West/Global North. Xi has made it clear that the goal is to alter the whole ‘developmental model and way of life’… This is achieving startling results.”

Tackling the question of the share of coal-fired plants in China’s energy consumption, which has so far dropped from 70% to around 56%, he continues:

“A big factor in China’s continuing reliance on coal has to do with energy security, not simply economics. Coal is the only fossil fuel that China has in abundance. With the United States launching a New Cold War on China during the Donald Trump administration, which has been carried forward and intensified under the Joe Biden administration, energy security has become a bigger issue for China. As Xi put it in a speech in October 2021, China ‘must hold the energy food bowl in its own hands.’ In this respect, Beijing is very conscious of the whole history of imperialism and how Western powers had imposed sanctions on it during the century of Western ‘gunboat’ interventions enforcing unequal treaties, something that only ended with the Chinese Revolution.”

Bellamy Foster does not accept the view that China’s emphasis on ecological civilisation has little to do with ecological Marxism, but is mainly rooted in traditional Chinese culture, “Yet, I also argued that the notion of ecological civilisation was developed in China as part of an ecological Marxism with Chinese characteristics, drawing on China’s own vernacular revolutionary tradition and thus on traditional Chinese culture… My way of thinking about this was very much influenced by the work of the great Marxist scientist and leading Western Sinologist Joseph Needham, the principal author of the massive multivolume Science and Civilisation in China.”

Finally, Bellamy Foster firmly locates his arguments in the context of the New Cold War primarily initiated by the United States against China:

“The United States is currently threatening the People’s Republic of China over Taiwan, which is internationally recognised—by the United States as well—as part of China, but with a different system, in accord with the One China Principle… In the context of declining US economic hegemony, Washington is insisting on a unipolar world, promoting military blocs aimed at China and Russia, and rejecting the actual multipolar development of the world at large, through the development of the BRICS… The US dollar’s role as the international reserve currency is being weaponised to sanction both Russia and China, along with all other nations that have challenged US dominance… The world is therefore on the edge of a Third World War, threatening the very existence of humankind. China’s response has been to launch in 2022 its Global Security Initiative, which constitutes the most comprehensive set of commitments for overall world security, including the security interests of all nations, that has ever been introduced.”

This interview, which is well worth reading in full, was first published in English in the September 2023 edition of Monthly Review. Conducted in English, the interview was also translated into Chinese and published in World Socialism Studies (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) in April 2023.
Jia Keqing: John Bellamy Foster, thank you for taking time for this interview. You are a leading theorist of contemporary ecological Marxism. In recent years, you have published a large number of works on Marxism, especially ecological Marxism. Could you give us an overview of the current state of ecological Marxism research worldwide? For example, what are the representative scholars and representative journals?

John Bellamy Foster: In China, the term ecological Marxism is widely used, but in most discussions outside of Asia the term ecosocialism is more common. I use both terms, along with Marxian ecology. At present ecosocialism is how the actual on-the-ground movement is referred to in the West. Still, the term ecological Marxism is useful at times since not all ecosocialist currents are clearly Marxist. Indeed, some self-styled ecosocialists adopt a more social-democratic approach. Ecosocialism thus has a complex history.

In the 1980s and early ’90s, many of the most prominent ecosocialists, figures like Ted Benton, André Gorz, James O’Connor, and Joel Kovel, came out of the Marxist and New Left traditions but were highly critical of Karl Marx and the classical Marxist tradition as a whole for being what was termed Promethean (standing for an extreme industrialist and extreme productivist position) and for being anti-ecological. The main thrust was thus an eclectic combination of traditional Marxist positions on labor and class with a Green theory that was primarily ethical in nature. This also involved, in some cases, attempts to wed Marx with other figures, such as Thomas Malthus (falsely viewed as an environmental figure) or Karl Polanyi, who provided a more social-democratic political economy, sometimes characterized as more environmental than Marx’s analysis. For Benton, Marx had failed (in contrast to Malthus) to recognize environmental limits. For O’Connor and Joan Martínez-Alier, Marx had rejected ecological economics as presented by the Ukrainian Marxist Sergei Podolinsky—though later research proved this to be incorrect. In the case of Kovel, Marx’s main failure was to deny the intrinsic value of nature. Much of this was colored by reactions at the time to the demise of the Soviet Union and attempts to distance ecosocialism from core Marxist traditions.

Beginning in the late 1990s, these views were challenged by other ecosocialists who developed a tradition of Marxian ecology rooted primarily in the unearthing of Marx’s own ecological critique. At the center of this was Marx’s conceptualization of ecological crisis known as the theory of metabolic rift and the relationship of this to his economic value theory. Paul Burkett and I played a leading role in this reconstruction of classical Marxian ecology in Marx and Frederick Engels—Burkett in his Marx and Nature, me in Marx’s Ecology. Over the last two decades not only has our knowledge of Marx’s ecology expanded enormously, but this has been extended into a critique of contemporary capitalist ecological destruction in the work of such figures as Kohei Saito, Fred Magdoff, Andreas Malm, Brett Clark, Richard York, Ian Angus, Hannah Holleman, Del Weston, Eamonn Slater, Stefano Longo, Rebecca Clausen, Brian Napoletano, Nicolas Graham, Camilla Royle, Mauricio Betancourt, Martin Empson, Jason Hickel, Chris Williams, and a host of others. Ariel Salleh has come up with an analysis of metabolic value that integrates metabolic rift analysis with ecofeminist theory. Jason W. Moore developed a world-ecology approach that grew out of metabolic rift analysis, but eventually gravitated to posthumanism. Salvatore Engel-Di Mauro has written on socialist states and the environment.

Outside the English-speaking world, Michael Löwy has done important work in France, Daniel Tanuro in Belgium, Christian Stache in Germany, Saito and Ryuji Sasaki in Japan, Martínez-Alier and Carles Soriano in Spain, Ricardo Dobrovolski in Brazil, Eduardo Gudynas in Uruguay, and Vishwas Satgar in South Africa. In fact, ecosocialism and ecological Marxism have now spread over the entire world and influenced social movements, such as the Landless Workers’ Movement in Brazil, to the point that it is impossible to track it all. I am also aware of an enormous amount of work being done on ecological Marxism in China and have developed connections with numerous thinkers, although I am not in a position to sum up trends there. The one major work with which I am most directly familiar by a Chinese ecological Marxist is Chen Xueming’s The Ecological Crisis and the Logic of Capital (2017).

Recognition of the importance of Marxian ecology keeps on growing. Three major works in ecosocialism, Malm’s Fossil Capital (2016), Saito’s Karl Marx’s Ecosocialism (2017), and my The Return of Nature (2020), have received the prestigious Isaac and Tamara Deutscher Memorial Prize.

In terms of journals, there are very few that are directed primarily at ecosocialism. Capitalism Nature Socialism, which was founded by O’Connor and is now edited by Engel Di-Mauro, occupies a unique place. Other journals that have regularly published important ecosocialist articles include Monthly Review, where I am editor, Historical Materialism, where Malm is on the editorial board, and International Socialism, especially when Royle was editor. But ecosocialist articles appear in most socialist journals as well as academic publications. The most important ecosocialist website is Climate and Capitalism, edited by Angus.

JK: In your opinion, the relationship between human beings and the earth is our most basic material relationship, because the earth constitutes the basis for the survival and development of life. How do you view the relationship between human beings and other species in the earth community? Do you prefer anthropocentrism or ecocentrism? Do nonhuman species have intrinsic value independent of humans, or are they merely instrumental?

JBF: The relationship to the earth is, as you say, our most basic relationship, the ground of human survival and of life in general. This is fundamental to a materialist and critical-realist worldview and has to be our starting point. It is therefore important to reject an anthropocentrism based on human exemptionalism that claims that anthropogenic goals can be pursued independently of the natural-material world in which we exist. Such a view is unscientific, ethically unsound, and unecological. In that sense, we have to be ecocentric, recognizing, as Marx contended, that humanity is “a part” of nature and that we need to have a continuing dialogue with it, as the basis of our own existence. A coevolutionary and sustainable relation to nature, with the earth, is therefore essential. Ecocentrism in this sense means denying the radical separation of humanity and human society from what Marx called the “universal metabolism of nature.”

None of this means that we have to descend into certain irrational views that are sometimes associated with ecocentrism. For example, according to what is called the “new materialism,” really a revival of vitalism that is popular among some branches of the academic left in the United States, Marx is said to be “anthropocentric” in that he did not recognize that everything in existence—a stone, a lump of coal, a cloud, a microbe, a flower, a chocolate bar, a set of plastic dinosaurs—are “nonhuman persons” on the same ontological plane as human beings. This is the actual claim made by figures like Timothy Morton and Jane Bennett. Morton says that by refusing to see the coal used up in a manufacturing process as a “nonhuman person,” Marx demonstrated his alleged anthropocentrism. Obviously, to proceed along these extreme vitalistic (“new materialist”) lines is to descend into absurdity.

Indeed, Marx is sometimes criticized by thinkers like Morton for being “anthropocentric” simply for focusing on the alienation of the human-species being—as if to address human existence and the human alienation from nature in a critique of class society thereby denies the existence of other, nonhuman species beings. Yet, the truth is that Marx was strongly critical of the Cartesian mechanistic separation of human beings and animals and defended Darwinian evolution, emphasizing the human coevolutionary relation to the natural world. He also emphasized the close affinity in terms of intelligence of nonhuman animal species and human beings, and he criticized the brutality toward nonhuman animals that arose within capitalist production. Throughout his work he stressed the ecological necessity of the humanization of nature and the naturalization of humanity, that is, a coming together ecologically that superseded both the alienation of nature and the alienation of labor.

Some ecosocialists, like Kovel, have faulted Marx and Marxism for supposedly failing to incorporate the intrinsic value of nature. Here, though, we run into problems because, while we can recognize other entities/beings and their right to exist, what we call values are a human quality, a distinction that we ourselves make. Definitions of intrinsic value tend to run in circles, when attempts are made to separate it from our own judgments. Marx approached this through his concept of natural-material use values, that is, in terms of a materialist view of humanity and production that included the qualitative aspect—and the necessity—of what nature provides. He also indicated that we relate to nature not simply through our production but also sensuously, and through our conceptions of beauty, that is, aesthetically. I wrote about Marx’s ecological aesthetics and their relation to intrinsic value in the introduction to the book Marx and the Earth, coauthored with Paul Burkett. It is in our aesthetics that we connect most sensuously with nature as a whole. One of the most brilliant insights of Xi Jinping, in line with both traditional Chinese civilization and Marxism, was to recognize that the concept of ecological civilization was not quite enough, and that it needed to be supplemented by a notion of “beautiful China.” That is, our aesthetic relation to nature, and thus the intrinsic value of nature, was seen as so important that it needed to be emphasized separately.

JK: You have restored Marx as an ecologist with plenty of facts, notably by the theory of metabolic rift. Today, Marx’s ecological theory has become the basis for the development of ecological socialism. You said that a materialistic view of history has no meaning unless it is linked to a materialistic view of nature. Can you explain this in a little bit more detail?

JBF: Marx and Engels referred to their contributions to historical and social analysis as the materialist conception of history, which was viewed as a counterpart to the materialist conception of nature. The materialist conception of nature was the fundamental basis of all materialist philosophy, going back in the Western tradition to the ancient Greeks. Marx was of course an expert on ancient materialism, having written his doctoral thesis (including his seven Epicurean notebooks developed in preparation for his thesis) on Epicurus’s ancient materialist philosophy. The materialist conception of nature, as embodied particularly in Epicurus (and Lucretius), was the primary intellectual basis for the seventeenth-century scientific revolution in Europe associated with thinkers such as Francis Bacon, René Descartes, Pierre Gassendi, and Thomas Hobbes. In introducing his materialist conception of history, focusing on human social praxis, Marx therefore developed this in accord with the materialist conception of nature, aside from which historical materialism would be deprived of all real foundations. As a result, natural science concepts appear throughout Capital. The understanding of this dialectical relationship between the materialist conception of nature and the materialist conception of history is crucial to both Marxian ecology and Marxism in general.

JK: You often refer to the concept of “natural capital” in your works. Does it have the same meaning as “ecological capital”? Where does this concept stand in your critical analysis of capitalism?

JBF: I provided a historical treatment of the natural capital concept in two articles that I wrote on the “financialization of nature” for Monthly Review: “Nature as a Mode of Accumulation: Capitalism and the Financialization of the Earth” (March 2022) and “The Defense of Nature: Resisting the Financialization of the Earth” (April 2022). In these articles, I explained how the concept of natural capital was originally used beginning early in the nineteenth century to refer to natural use values by radical opponents of the capitalist economic valorization of nature, including Marx and Engels in The German Ideology. This usage continued to dominate into the 1970s and early ’80s and can be seen in the work of ecological economists E. F. Schumacher and Herman Daly. However, in more recent decades neoclassical environmental economics has transformed the concept into its opposite, changing it from one based on use value to one based on exchange value, and thus fully integrated with the capitalist economy.

From a critical concept opposed to the commodification of nature, the concept of natural capital was inverted into its exact opposite, reducing all of nature to the terms of the capitalist market. Natural capital then became the underlying concept out of which the present category of ecosystem services was developed and through which the financialization of nature is being currently promoted. In this respect, the term ecological capital is just a stand-in for natural capital, viewed in terms of exchange value. To understand the significance of this shift in analysis and why it is necessary to combat these tendencies, I recommend reading the articles mentioned above, and especially the one on “The Defense of Nature.” (It is worth noting that while Marx originally used the term natural capital, he recognized the way in which the concept could be distorted under capitalism and switched in Capital to the distinction between “earth matter” [terre-matiére] and “earth capital” [terre-capital].)

JK: The importance of ecological issues has been more and more widely recognized, and class struggle has always played an important role in classical Marxist theory. Today, do you think that the ecological crisis and the ecological struggle have gone beyond the traditional class crisis and struggle? Perhaps it would be most ideal to combine the ecological crisis and struggle with the traditional class crisis and struggle, but the two aspects do not always seem to coincide.

JBF: My way of looking at these things is somewhat different from the standard view on the left and more closely related to classical historical materialism. What you refer to here as the traditional view sees economic and ecological struggle as widely divergent from each other, with class struggle equated with economic struggle in a narrow sense. This in some ways reflects the alienated reality of contemporary capitalist society, but it certainly was not the way Marx and Engels approached the question of class. In many ways, the work that set up the whole paradigm of historical materialism was Engels’s The Condition of the Working Class in England, published in 1845. This work first introduced the notion of the Industrial Revolution, recognized the class basis of production and the phenomenon of exploitation, and also introduced the concept of the industrial reserve army of the unemployed and underemployed. It was a product in part of Engels’s own critique of political economy in the “Outlines of a Critique of Political Economy,” written in 1843, which influenced Marx in the writing of the Economic and Philosophical Manuscripts. But The Condition of the Working Class was also a pioneering epidemiological work that examined the etiology of disease under capitalism, arguing that bourgeois relations of production promoted “social murder.” Therefore, Engels did not start his analysis with the exploitation of factory workers and conditions in the workplace, though that occupies part of the book, but rather with the capitalist city, housing conditions, air and water pollution, the spread of disease and illnesses of all kinds, and the much higher mortality rate of the working class. In this sense, his work was ecological as much or more than it was economic.

The struggles of the working class in the early nineteenth century were a product of their whole living conditions, not just factory conditions, even if it was their ability to stop production that was the basis of their class power. Engels wrote his book just after the so-called Plug-Plot Riots had taken place in the north of England, in the vicinity of Manchester where he was living. For Marx and Engels, working-class struggles were not restricted to strikes and battles by workers within their work sites but were also evident in the entire realm of working-class material existence. Historical materialism has too often been reduced to what we might call historical economism, leaving out wider realms of life, not only the larger environment but also the conditions of social reproduction in the household. I would also argue that it is only when class struggle extends to the entire material basis of its existence, including the workplace, the environment (both built and natural), and the conditions of social reproduction, that it is truly revolutionary. This can be applied to peasant struggles too (as Marx and Engels also recognized), though in a different way, reflecting the different class relations. Here it is clear that land or nature is always an issue, along with the control of work itself. The character of the class struggle of our times, I believe, is one of bringing together these material struggles again on a higher level so that the battles over work and the environment will increasingly become one material struggle.

JK: You believe that the major force of today’s ecological revolution is the environmental proletariat. How is this class different from the traditional proletariat? You also believe that the struggle of the working class in developed countries is not as strong as that of the working class in less developed countries because the former are the indirect beneficiaries of the global imperialist system. But the Southern proletariat may also benefit from the employment, income, and other opportunities that this system brings. In reality, have they shown themselves to be more revolutionary compared with the Northern proletariat?

JBF: The notion of the environmental proletariat is really an attempt to get back to both the classical historical-materialist notion of the proletariat in Marx and Engels’s thought, and also to develop a notion of the planetary proletariat appropriate to our times. The basic idea is that human beings are dependent on the material conditions of their existence and their struggles to develop their human capacities in that context. But these material conditions are not narrowly economic but also ecological/environmental, and thus more all-encompassing. What is involved in class struggle today is not simply struggles in the workplace, though, as always, this is the center of working-class power, but also struggles over the whole environment. It is becoming more and more difficult to separate the economic and environmental conditions of material existence. If there is a shortage of food or water available to the population in the Global South today, is this due primarily to economic or ecological factors? The fact is that such problems are more and more intertwined given the structural crisis of capital and combined economic and ecological crisis and catastrophe.

The economic proletariat has often been constrained by the logic of trade unions and the struggle for wages and benefits. The environmental proletariat, which is simply a way of referring to the proletariat in terms of the full complexity of its material existence, is concerned with work relations but also the full range of material life conditions. Such a unified standpoint is necessarily more revolutionary and more capable of grappling with the problems of the age. The true revolutionary struggle, as István Mészáros argued, required the transformation of the entire system of social metabolic reproduction, currently dominated in an alienated way by capital. To speak of an environmental proletariat is thus to speak of a broader proletariat, the coming together of environmental and economic concerns, of proletarians, peasants, and the Indigenous. It means dealing with issues of social reproduction under capitalism that have led to extreme gender-based oppression of women. We can already see a broader environmental proletarian consciousness emerging in places throughout the world, especially in the Global South, where conditions are more serious—especially wherever socialism is developing. Development of an environmental proletarian consciousness will determine the ability of populations to respond to the age of planetary crisis with which we are already confronted. This struggle is inevitable and is already coming into being.

In terms of the question of the more revolutionary character of workers in the Global South, there cannot be the slightest doubt. It is the workers in the periphery of the capitalist system who are faced with the sharp edge of imperialism. We have the entire twentieth century and the first two decades of the twenty-first century testifying to the revolutionary struggles on every continent of the Global South. Revolutions have been a continuous feature in the monopoly capitalist era, even if largely absent from the core of the capitalist society in the Global North/West. Not all of these revolutions have succeeded, of course. They have been confronted in every case by the forces of counterrevolution—in the post-Second World War era represented chiefly by the United States backed by the other imperial powers. Nevertheless, it is the proletariat/peasantry in the Global South that has continually led the way, and where one consequently sees the most radical environmental-proletarian struggles today. In terms of the understanding of this whole development, one of my favorite books, even though now out of date, is L. S. Stavrianos’s The Global Rift: A History of the Third World.

JK: Capitalism, because of its logic of profit, can only be doomed in the end. You even say that imagining the end of capitalism has become easier than imagining the end of the world. But isn’t that too optimistic? Although, as you said, the world has fallen into the era of catastrophe capitalism, which is manifested by global ecological crisis, global epidemic crisis, and endless world economic crisis, the power of capitalism seems to be still strong today.

JBF: I previously said (see the discussion of this in “The Planetary Rift” in the November 2021 issue of Monthly Review) that we were now moving away from the hegemony of “capitalist realism,” that is, the notion, critically articulated by Fredric Jameson twenty years ago, that “it is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.” I first indicated in March 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic was beginning, that this was now being reversed. In this respect, I inverted Jameson’s famous statement, saying: “It has suddenly become easier to imagine the end of capitalism than the end of the world.” What I meant is that in the face of the crises and catastrophes emerging in our time—such as economic stagnation and financialization (including the 2008 financial crisis), COVID-19, climate change, the resurrection of fascist movements around the world, and the beginnings of a New Cold War—populations everywhere are increasingly becoming aware that capitalism has failed. The general collapse of what had seemed a stable social order is more and more seen in terms of the structural crisis of capitalism, and not simply in terms of the advent of a dystopian or apocalyptic future.

Once again, consciousness of what Marx called the “tragic flaw,” represented by the alienated society of capitalism, is coming to the fore in the consciousness of people everywhere, leading to growing demands to overcome the existing social relations and the mode of production. This is not overly optimistic since it is happening all around us, even if the final outcome of the struggle over capitalism is far from certain. Bernie Sanders’s new book is called It’s OK to Be Angry about Capitalism. This represents a big shift from what Jameson was referring to twenty years ago.

JK: According to your research, has the global ecological movement in recent years held back the ecological imperialism of Western developed countries? Has the Global North’s ecological debt to the Global South been diminished? What are the impediments?

JBF: The global environmental movement, which is today growing very rapidly, has made an enormous difference in resisting and slowing down the capitalist juggernaut. But the ecological debt owed to the Global South can hardly be said to have diminished, as ecological imperialism is being extended even in the context of the planetary ecological emergency.

To get a sense of the scale of the problem, we can look at what is owed to the Global South in terms of the global carbon budget. Science has established a global carbon budget based on a target of 350 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Once the carbon budget was established it was possible to determine what the fair share of carbon emissions on a per capita basis would be for each country. As Jason Hickel demonstrated in an important study in Lancet Planetary Health in September 2020, if we subtract the actual emissions of countries from their fair share, we can then determine which countries have, in their historical emissions, generated excess or surplus emissions. What Hickel was able to determine based on 2014 data was that 40 percent of all excess carbon dioxide emissions in the world added to the atmosphere were attributable to the United States, and 92 percent to the rich nations of the Global North. Meanwhile, China and India both had zero excess emissions. The excess emissions of the countries of the Global North represent an enormous ecological debt in the form of a climate debt to the Global South.

This of course does not account for all the other ways in which the Global North over the last five centuries or more has generated an ecological debt to the Global South. And yet, the rich countries, rather than aiding the poor countries, are extending their overall ecological imperialism, something that Hannah Holleman, Brett Clark, and I addressed in an article entitled “Imperialism in the Anthropocene” in Monthly Review in July–August 2019.

JK: Some scholars believe that the socialist development model is also subject to economic rationality and cannot avoid ecological destruction. James O’Connor says, for example, that the same systematic force is as effective in the East as it is in the West. What do you think about this? What are the advantages of socialism to overcome the ecological crisis?

JBF: I am not aware of any place where O’Connor said that the same systematic forces applied in both the East and West, though he may have said this somewhere. For him, the East would have no doubt have referred primarily to the Soviet Union/Russia. O’Connor saw the conditions that prevailed in Soviet-type societies as quite different from that of Western capitalism, although there was a lot of overlap in terms of technology, emphasis on industrialization, etc. His analysis in this respect was very sophisticated and is worth reading today, particularly his introduction to part 3 on “Socialism and Nature” in his book Natural Causes. Socialism arises out of capitalism and thus is inherently infected by many of its contradictions. The world-economy as a whole is capitalist, which means that socialist countries have to navigate their way through all sorts of external contradictions imposed on them, not least of all imperialist pressures. Nevertheless, what differs between countries who are socialist (or postrevolutionary) and capitalist are the social relations of production, which open up all sorts of new opportunities. China, for example, though beset with ecological problems, has been able to develop modes of ecological management and planning that would be unthinkable in the Global North/West.

JK: Although China has the largest annual carbon emissions in the world today, much of it is used to produce commodities for Western consumption, and China’s historical carbon emission and per capita emission are far lower than those of developed countries in Europe and the United States. Nevertheless, China has made it clear that it wants to follow a path of ecological civilization and has laid out a road map for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. You also believe that China’s efforts to build an ecological civilization are revolutionary. In your opinion, what should China emphasize to tackle the ecological crisis and build an ecological civilization?

JBF: China’s approach to building an ecological civilization is radically different from anything that exists in the West/Global North. Xi has made it clear that the goal is to alter the whole “developmental model and way of life. [This means] establishing a sound economic structure that facilitates green, low-carbon and circular development…promoting a thorough transition towards eco-friendly economic and social development” as “fundamental solutions to China’s eco-environmental problems.” (See his speech, “Achieve Modernization Based on Harmony Between Man and Nature,” April 30, 2021.) This is achieving startling results. For example, China’s newly added vegetative ground cover between 2000 and 2017, according to the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), was one-quarter of the planetary total. The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan (2021–25) makes a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions a priority, with China planning to peak its carbon emissions before 2030 during its Fifteenth Five-Year Plan (2026–30) and to reach net zero emissions by 2060. China has become the world leader in green technology and production.

The big issue remains coal. Although the share of coal-fired plants in China’s energy consumption has dropped from 70 percent to around 56 percent, China in the last two years has increased its coal mining and has been building new coal-fired plants. It has reached new records of overall coal consumption, even though such consumption had been relatively flat over the last decade. Some have interpreted this as China’s retreat from its goals of peaking carbon emissions and reaching carbon neutrality. However, the reality is much more complex than that, as Beijing is seeking to balance energy stability and energy security with lower levels of pollution and carbon emissions. Power shortages in some regions and new concerns with respect to energy security led the government to develop a new role for coal—consistent, in its view, with the long-term phasing down of coal consumption and the eventual elimination of unabated coal capacity (lacking carbon capture and sequestration). Coal power generation is seen as essential to support the power grid throughout the country, even as a rapid shift is made toward alternative energy. Coal-fired plants, once built, can be designed to run at lower capacity in normal circumstances, while capacity utilization can be increased when needed to stabilize energy production. There is thus a focus on using coal as a reserve capacity. In this way, an increase in the number of coal-fired plants in China could actually support a shift away from coal. New plants are also designed to replace former coal plants that are less efficient (primarily affecting pollution reduction). Since China plans to reach peak carbon emissions during the next five-year plan, from 2026 to 2030, it will be necessary for it to take strenuous measures to level off and reduce its coal emissions this decade.

A big factor in China’s continuing reliance on coal has to do with energy security, not simply economics. Coal is the only fossil fuel that China has in abundance. With the United States launching a New Cold War on China during the Donald Trump administration, which has been carried forward and intensified under the Joe Biden administration, energy security has become a bigger issue for China. As Xi put it in a speech in October 2021, China “must hold the energy food bowl in its own hands.” In this respect, Beijing is very conscious of the whole history of imperialism and how Western powers had imposed sanctions on it during the century of Western “gunboat” interventions enforcing unequal treaties, something that only ended with the Chinese Revolution.

It is important to remember that, although China is the leading emitter of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere today, its national responsibility for the overall problem is much less than that of countries in the Global North, who are the main carbon debtors in per capita terms. As Hickel showed, and is mentioned above, China, as of 2014 data, had zero excess historical emissions (in per capita terms), while the United States accounted for 40 percent of the world total.

JK: Some scholars argue that China’s emphasis on ecological civilization has little to do with ecological Marxism, but is mainly rooted in traditional Chinese culture, which could be traced back to the idea of “unity of nature and man” thousands of years ago. You do not seem to agree with that. What is the role of ecological Marxism in the construction of ecological civilization in China in your opinion?

JBF: I dealt with this in my article “Ecological Civilization, Ecological Revolution,” originally a talk to a group of Chinese scholars, that appeared in the October 2022 issue of Monthly Review. In that talk I was countering Jeremy Lent, who argued that ecological civilization grew entirely out of traditional Chinese values and had nothing to do with ecological Marxism. In response, I pointed out that the concept of ecological civilization had its origin within Marxism itself in the Soviet Union in its final decades and had been adopted at the time by Chinese ecological Marxists, only to be developed further over the last three decades in China. Attempts to dissociate it from Marxism were thus historically incorrect.

Yet, I also argued that the notion of ecological civilization was developed in China as part of an ecological Marxism with Chinese characteristics, drawing on China’s own vernacular revolutionary tradition and thus on traditional Chinese culture. Rather than looking at ecological Marxism and the traditions of Chinese culture as simply separate, even antagonistic, this view reflects their close relationship in many respects where ecological considerations apply.

My way of thinking about this was very much influenced by the work of the great Marxist scientist and leading Western Sinologist Joseph Needham, the principal author of the massive multivolume Science and Civilization in China. I wrote about Needham in my book The Return of Nature. There is an interesting popular biography of him by Simon Winchester entitled The Man Who Loved China. In contrast to Lent, who designates Western culture and science as geared from the first to the outright domination and expropriation of nature, Needham emphasized how scientific humanism and organic naturalism in the West emerged out of ancient Epicurean materialism, which had a profound influence on Marx’s thought. Epicureanism and Daoism had a certain resemblance. “Lucretius,” he wrote, “spoke the same language [in this respect] as the Taoists.” The Daoist concept of wu wei or nonaction was not about passivity, but about avoiding actions that were “contrary to nature.” Central to Daoism is the conception of “production without possession, action without self-assertion, development without domination.” All of this had a natural affinity with dialectical materialism. “Organic naturalism,” Needham observed in Within the Four Seas, “was the philosophia perrenis of China.” Chinese thinkers might therefore see Marxist dialectical materialism as the return of their “own philosophia perennis integrated with modern science, and [which had] at last come home.”

My own thinking has been heavily influenced by P. J. Laska’s The Original Wisdom of the Dao De Jing: A New Translation and Commentary. There we read:

The ruling houses deduct too much, the
granaries are empty and the fields are
overgrown with weeds. At court they wear
richly designed silk clothing, carry weapons,
gorge themselves with food and drink, and
have an excess of wealth and possessions.
This is called “robbers boasting.”
It is certainly not the Way!

Here it is worth mentioning that Marx was not unaware of Eastern philosophy and had a considerable interest in Buddhism. The great Indian Marxist scholar Pradip Baksi has explored Marx’s interest in the Buddhist concept of nothingness.

JK: The developed capitalist countries are also engaged in a practical struggle for the sustainable development of humankind. You have mentioned that Cooperation Jackson in Mississippi is engaged in a revolutionary project as part of building ecosocialism. Would you please tell us something about the activities of this organization or other similar organizations?

JBF: In our special issue of Monthly Review on “Socialism and Ecological Survival” in July–August 2022, we were concerned with issues of how communities can organize on an ecosocialist basis for survival, given the fact that environmental devastation is now accelerating due to climate change. One such community organization that Brett Clark and I looked at in our introduction to the issue was Cooperation Jackson. Rather than being a way in which the state or capital are engaged in struggles for sustainable development in a developed capitalist society, Cooperation Jackson is a revolutionary ecosocialist federation of cooperatives led by and largely geared to the needs of African-American and Latinx communities that is arising out of the most racially oppressed populations in the country and within the working class. They emphasize sustainability, social justice, and a just transition with respect to the environment as well as collective needs and were initially inspired by the Mondragon experiment in Spain. We regard Cooperation Jackson as one of numerous organizations within the pores of capitalist society arising from working-class and oppressed frontline communities that represent a way forward for the environmental proletariat within the belly of the beast. Although small at present, such movements constitute islands of revolutionary hope and action that prefigure an alternative future.

JK: In a series of works, you have described the terrifying scenario of a nuclear winter. If thermonuclear war did occur, global temperatures could drop dramatically, with devastating consequences for life on Earth. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the world has turned its attention to the possibility of war between nuclear powers, which means a shift from carbon extinction to nuclear extinction. How do you see the possibility of nuclear war?

JBF: It is not a problem so much of “a shift from carbon extinction to nuclear extinction,” but rather a problem of two possible extinctions of humanity facing us that are closely related. Accelerated climate change or global warming is a result of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere inducing rising average global temperatures. A global thermonuclear exchange, by pouring smoke and soot into the atmosphere, thereby generating nuclear winter, operates in the opposite direction, but virtually overnight. Both processes came to be understood almost simultaneously by climate scientists in the Soviet Union and the United States. Today we are thus facing the threat of two exterminisms. The destabilization of the world environment by climate change has in some ways, ironically, accelerated the competition over energy resources globally, intensifying the conflict between the nuclear superpowers and thus the possibility of nuclear winter.

When the Ukraine War heated up in 2022, it became clear to me that the most important issue for humanity as a whole in this conflict was that the most dangerous proxy war ever to take place was putting the nuclear superpowers on the verge of a global thermonuclear exchange. Nevertheless, the very real dangers of this were not clearly understood even on the left, since most people had stopped paying attention to nuclear war planning after 1991 and the dissolution of the USSR, and had long since put their faith in mutual assured destruction (MAD) as a kind of absolute deterrence.

Taking a cue from E. P. Thompson, the great English Marxist historian and leader of the European Nuclear Disarmament movement in the 1980s, who had written an essay on “Notes on Exterminism” dealing with the dangers of nuclear war (and environmental destruction), I wrote an article in the May 2022 issue of Monthly Review on “‘Notes on Exterminism’ for the Twenty-First Century Ecology and Peace Movements.” That article was organized around two themes. One, climate science research this century had further confirmed the nuclear winter analysis developed in the 1980s, indicating that massive fires engendered in a hundred cities due to a thermonuclear exchange would result in so much smoke and soot being added to the atmosphere that solar radiation would be blocked and global average temperatures would fall to the extent that it would kill almost all of humanity on the planet in a few years. Two, the debate on nuclear weapon development in the United States following the demise of the USSR had led to a victory of the maximalists over the minimalists, resulting in the concerted pursuit of counterforce weapons designed to provide the United States with “nuclear primacy” or first-strike capability—through the decapitation of the nuclear weapons on the other side before they could be launched, and the picking off of what remained with anti-ballistic missile systems—even in relation to major nuclear powers such as Russia and China.

In 2007, the U.S. foreign and military establishment announced that U.S. global “nuclear primacy” was on the brink of being achieved. This meant that the U.S. strategic nuclear posture was no longer restricted by the notion of MAD, but rather was seen in terms of nuclear primacy or first-strike capability—a dangerous illusion, but one that increasingly drove Washington’s policy, leading to a new military aggressiveness in recent years, particularly in the face of declining U.S. hegemony. For example, the United States believes that China’s nuclear submarine fleet is non-survivable in a U.S. first strike, since China has not yet been able to reduce the noise level of its submarines sufficiently to avoid detection (though its achievements in this respect in recent years have been remarkable). Russian and Chinese missile silos are increasingly vulnerable to more accurate missile targeting, even by non-nuclear missiles. All of this has encouraged heightened U.S. belligerence, which was long constrained by MAD. Washington is pushing the world dangerously toward nuclear war in its effort to decrease its declining hegemony, particularly due to the rise of China—and so as to achieve its (impossible) goal of a U.S.-dominated unipolar world. Needless to say, Russia and China have been taking actions in response, such as the development of hypersonic missiles. As a consequence of all of this, the revival of the world peace movement is an urgent task.

JK: We note that you recently collaborated with other scholars on a new book, Washington’s New Cold War: A Socialist Perspective. Would you please tell us something about it?

JBF: That book, published by Monthly Review Press together with the Tricontinental Institute for Social Research, consists of three essays: the essay on “‘Notes on Exterminism’ for the Twenty-First Century Ecology and Peace Movements” by me, mentioned above, and two essays, written on the New Cold War, both of which we first published in Guancha in China and then on MR Online: John Ross’s “What Is Propelling the United States Into Increasing Military Aggression?” and Deborah Veneziale’s “Who Is Leading the United States to War?” Vijay Prashad wrote an introduction to the book.

The essays in the book depict the U.S. role in engendering a New Cold War. Since the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States, according to the Congressional Records Office, has carried out more military interventions/wars in other countries than in its entire previous history. It has enlarged NATO so that it now encompasses the territory of nearly all the former Warsaw Pact nations and regions of the former Soviet Union. This expansion has led to the present Ukraine War. At the same time, Washington has declared that China is its number one security threat, due to the challenge that China’s growth presents to the “international rules-based order,” or the institutions of U.S.-based global power (and that of the triad of the United States/Canada, Europe, and Japan).

The United States is currently threatening the People’s Republic of China over Taiwan, which is internationally recognized—by the United States as well—as part of China, but with a different system, in accord with the One China Principle. Beijing’s long-term goal of the reunification of the populations on the two sides of the Taiwan strait, in accordance with the One China policy, has been distorted by Washington into a case of imminent aggression by Beijing and a potential causus belli. Beijing’s own position is that this is an internal matter within China itself. Under the Biden administration, U.S. military forces stationed in Taiwan are being quadrupled. The United States currently has four hundred military bases surrounding China in what is often referred to as a giant noose.

In the context of declining U.S. economic hegemony, Washington is insisting on a unipolar world, promoting military blocs aimed at China and Russia, and rejecting the actual multipolar development of the world at large, through the development of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). The U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency is being weaponized to sanction both Russia and China, along with all other nations that have challenged U.S. dominance, while the triad continues to seek to wield its imperial dominance over all three continents of the Global South. The world is therefore on the edge of a Third World War, threatening the very existence of humankind. China’s response has been to launch in 2022 its Global Security Initiative, which constitutes the most comprehensive set of commitments for overall world security, including the security interests of all nations, that has ever been introduced, arising out of a long tradition that in the West goes back to Immanuel Kant’s essay on “Perpetual Peace.”

This is the era of the Great Choice. The world will either move in the direction of socialism and world peace or toward an even more barbaric capitalism (that is, fascism) and exterminism. It is Mészáros who most deserves credit for emphasizing this in 2001 in his Socialism or Barbarism: From the “American Century” to the Crossroads. There he wrote: “If I had to modify Rosa Luxemburg’s dramatic words, in relation to the dangers we now face, I would add to ‘socialism or barbarism’ this qualification: ‘barbarism if we are lucky.’ For the extermination of humanity is the ultimate concomitant of capital’s dangerous course of development,” which now confronts us in “the potentially most dangerous phase of imperialism.”

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Wed Oct 25, 2023 3:43 pm

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African forest elephants, lowland bongos and forest buffalos, Dzanga Sangha Special Reserve, Banks of the Sangha river, Central African Republic. (Photo: Gregoire Dubois / Flickr)

Central Africa Forest Initiative (CAFI): A classic case of climate funding fraud in Africa
By Kola Ibrahim (Posted Oct 24, 2023)

Central Africa Forest Initiative (CAFI) was established in 2015 to protect the huge rainforests of the Congo Basin, which span six Central African countries: DR Congo, Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon. The forest is reportedly the second largest after the Amazon, and it is significant for global emission reduction, as it sequesters over 600 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, and stores billions of tons of other greenhouse gases. The CAFI is funded by eight developed countries (Norway, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Netherlands, South Korea, Sweden and Belgium).

Undemocratic Governing Structure
Interestingly, the secretariat of the CAFI, which implement programmes in these African countries, has its headquarters in the Netherlands, and managed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), without a direct role for any of the beneficiary countries or their regional organization. Furthermore, the executive board of the Initiative is composed of donor countries and their multilateral agencies, while Central African countries do not have a role, seat, or say in the executive board, except when invited as observers (CAFI, 2016).1 Yet the projects to be implemented are to be initiated by the African countries and submitted to the board. The conditionality for accepting project proposals is set by the executive board, which also approves such projects (CAFI, 2023).2 Worse still, the projects are implemented not by any of the central African countries who submitted a project proposal, but by selected bilateral organizations of developed countries, such as the Japan Development Agency (JICA), Belgian Development Agency (Enabel), and French Development Agency (AFD ), and multilateral institutions, including United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOP), United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF), United Nations Human Settlement Programme (UN-Habitat), United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the World Bank and UNDP.

In summary, the Central African countries have no say in the decision-making, implementation structure, or project-review process. Yet the African countries involved must provide necessary support, including financial, political, and security support. CAFI is a project aimed at protecting a globally important forest resources that will help to not only absorb and store carbon, mostly from the developed economies, but also reduce emissions. The African countries involved are providing their resources for the global good, yet they are not considered important in decisions on how to fund the protection of these forests’ resources. Protecting these forests will mean that the citizens will have limited right to use the forest resources, which can provide sources of wealth for their countries (agricultural, mineral resources, and so on).

While the Western countries see their involvement in the CAFI as benevolence to Africa countries, they also count CAFI projects as part of their contribution to climate action and green development. This is then taken into account as part of their climate financing and carbon reductions. Yet, the projects are portrayed to Africans as assistance to them. It is the African countries that are providing the world with free resources to reduce emissions; yet this will not be counted as their contribution to climate financing and carbon emission reduction, but merely as support. The worst part of the fraud is that the Central African countries will still provide financial resources to facilitate smooth running of these projects.

More than this, approach to governance of the CAFI portrays Africans as lacking the wherewithal and credibility to undertake projects that will benefit them. This further underscore the neocolonialist character of developed countries, especially Western nations. It also shows how underdevelopment is deepened. This approach surely contributes to failure of this kind of initiative, yet the failure will be blamed on African countries, their lack of political accountability, cooperation, expertise, and the rest. Nonetheless, a review of the finances of the CAFI projects shows an attempt to defraud Africa—nay, the world.

CAFI Questionable Project Funding
According to the UNDP Multi-Partner Trust Fund (MPTF) office, which acts as administrative secretariat for CAFI projects, out of the $543.7 million in financial commitments by donor countries between 2016 and 2021, $501 million was deposited to the UNDP, while a sum of $194.1 million (38.7 percent of the deposit) was transferred from CAFI account to various implementing organizations. However, only $120.3 million, (representing 63 percent of transferred funds and 24 percent of the deposited funds) was actually spent in the six-year period by CAFI (UNDP, 2021).3 Yet when the story is told, it will be presented as if $543.7 million was spent on CAFI when, in reality, only a fraction of this amount actually was spent. In fact, the whole donation pales in comparison to the climate change funding needed by any of the Central African countries, not to mention the cost of emissions of the donor countries.

However, while the donors and multilateral partners paint African countries with the brush of corruption, the CAFI projects actually contained inherent corruption and mismanagement. For instance, out of the $158.5 million that could be accounted for in the expenditure, 48.6 percent went to administrative expenses, including $7.5 million (5.2 percent) for travel; indirect support cost of $12.3 million (8.44 percent), and personnel costS of $21.6 million (14.8 percent) of expenditures. This is aside the $6.4 million deducted at source from deposited funds as administrative agent fee. Out of the total expenditure accounted for, only $22.5 million (15.4 percent) was committed to grants and transfers, that is, the amount that went to beneficiaries. An undefined and opaque item called “contractual services expenses” gulped up $65 million (44.5 percent) of all expenses.

The category of “contractual services” was not defined by the report, but, given that there is already item for grants and transfers, and the fact that MPTF Office does not directly carry out the projects, but employs through agents, these items might refer to consultancy contracts. Even if the contracts are solely for direct impact projects, contractors will also collect their own contract fees and administrative charges, which can be up to between 10—20 percent of project sums, yet the implementing organizations spent $21.5 million on personnel, $7.5 million on travel, and $11.5 million on general operating costs! If these expenses were reported by African countries, the story would be spun as gargantuan corruption. From this analysis alone, it is clear that the CAFI programme is more or less like taking with the left hand most of what is given by the right hand.

Population Control: Neo-Colonial Ideology
Moving on from the expenses, the reality is that the CAFI has had limited impact on climate change or on the living conditions of the people of the African countries involved. In the first instance, reports of results and impacts are tainted with credibility deficiency, as it is the same group of organizations that funded and implemented the projects that are measuring the impacts: a form of self-assessment. This cannot be an accountable and responsible way of reporting. Yet, from the report, it can be deduced that the projects are merely a grandstanding. For instance, in its report, UNDP noted that $33.8 million (19 percent) of the total expenditure on projects was for demographic control (population control). The funders, in a questionable approach to Africa’s climate change problem, believe that population control is a potent way to reduce emissions, not sustainable urban planning and development. This shows how foreign donors use so-called assistance and aid to achieve their own agendas, especially for Africa.

While the impact of population on development vary widely with complex relationship, the singular narrative approach to it by the western policy makers is aimed at imposing an ideology. For instance, Africa has been losing its youthful population and expertise to Europe and North America as a way of escaping poverty and strife, which shows the impact of population emigration on development. Developing Africa’s economy can benefit greatly from its population. Indeed, one of the selling points of some industrialised countries such as United States, China and India, is their population. In any case, controlling population will not have immediate impact on protection of the rainforests, as its outcome will only manifest decades after when the new-borns would have matured. Therefore, the narrative about population as a factor for deforestation is not only wrong but also unscientific, while attempt to enforce a deliberate population control as a solution to climate change is simply fraudulent and criminal. Yet, this narrative is not only sold to Africa, but is being incorporated as a fundamental aspect of western countries’ aid policy and foreign policy towards Africa. This obviously is not aimed at promoting development in Africa, but at best, using a shortcut to avoid responsibility towards Africa’s underdevelopment, and to further deepen its underdevelopment and enslavement.

It is therefore not strange to discover that the total expenditure on population control is more than the allocation towards clean cooking facilities and green energy, especially in DR Congo, where most of the population control expenditures were spent. While $2.5 million was used (35.7 percent of $7 million approved) for clean cooking stoves, $23.4 million (70 percent of $33 million approved) was used for population control, mostly on consultancy and contraceptives. Worse still, the demographic control program did not include any funding for the health of children and mothers, especially as relating to diseases that increase childhood and maternal mortality. Furthermore, there is little or no funding for green power like solar and wind, which, alongside funding for clean cooking (especially through waste energy conversion), could have reduced significantly the rate of use of wood as energy sources.

Skewed Project Implementation
The $2.5 million spent on clean cooking stoves was 1) at a costly market rate in a country with high population of poor people; 2) too little, as only 35,000 cookstoves have been sold to date in DR Congo, where about 96 percent of households use unclean cooking systems and 80 percent have no access to electricity. Interestingly, so-called clean cooking is not actually a sustainable system, as it still involves the use of wood and charcoal, though in the UNDP’s self-defined “efficient” way. Also, the use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking is not actually a clean energy approach, as it still involves the use of fossil fuel (a major contributor to carbon emissions and climate change) as primary fuel. Yet, the main aim of the CAFI is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through rainforest protection. The disturbing aspect is that a significant amount of the money could have provided a cleaner and affordable green renewable energy (such as solar, wind, or waste biomass) to many families and communities on the basis of direct investment. Rather than fund clean renewable energy, the program funded fast-growing trees as source of biomass for cooking. However, on the basis of market fundamentalist approach, coupled with a neocolonialist ideology that aims to utilise the CAFI program to promote the interests of donor countries under the guise of aid and assistance, few impacts could be made, despite some of the funds being committed to clean energy.

Parameter FONAREDD (CAFI in DRC) result Realities
Forest and Wood Use Management a. 500,000 hectares restored between 2016 and 2021 through procured titles
b. 4469 hectares of wood energy plantation with fast growing tree cultivated.

c. 17,260 hectares of used wood forest left to regenerate for supply of wood for energy.


499,059 hectares forest loss in 2021 alone.
Alternative Energy 34,601 clean stoves sold in 5 years


4 percent (4.1 million) of population has access to clean cooking (World Bank, 2021)4
Agricultural Support 27,500 households benefitedfrom support for productive and sustainable agriculture that spares forest land i. 62 percent (63.4 million people) of the total population depends on subsistence agriculture; and 72 percent of rural household are poor (IFAD, 2019).5
ii. 15.6 million people are food insecure; 3.4 million children acutely malnourished (IFAD, 2020)6

Electricity Access No impact recorded 80 percent of the population has no access to electricity 7
Poverty 2,185 beneficiaries had their income doubled through increased revenue from improved agricultural practices for rice and corn farming 62 percent (about 60 million are poor) (World Bank, 2023

| African forest elephants lowland bongos and forest buffalos Dzanga Sangha Special Reserve Banks of the Sangha river Central African Republic | MR OnlineAfrican forest elephants, lowland bongos and forest buffalos, Dzanga Sangha Special Reserve, Banks of the Sangha river, Central African Republic. (Photo: Gregoire Dubois / Flickr)
Central Africa Forest Initiative (CAFI): A classic case of climate funding fraud in Africa
By Kola Ibrahim (Posted Oct 24, 2023)

Climate Change, Environment, Financialization, StrategyAfricaCommentaryCentral Africa Forest Initiative (CAFI), Featured
Central Africa Forest Initiative (CAFI) was established in 2015 to protect the huge rainforests of the Congo Basin, which span six Central African countries: DR Congo, Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon. The forest is reportedly the second largest after the Amazon, and it is significant for global emission reduction, as it sequesters over 600 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, and stores billions of tons of other greenhouse gases. The CAFI is funded by eight developed countries (Norway, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Netherlands, South Korea, Sweden and Belgium).

Undemocratic Governing Structure
Interestingly, the secretariat of the CAFI, which implement programmes in these African countries, has its headquarters in the Netherlands, and managed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), without a direct role for any of the beneficiary countries or their regional organization. Furthermore, the executive board of the Initiative is composed of donor countries and their multilateral agencies, while Central African countries do not have a role, seat, or say in the executive board, except when invited as observers (CAFI, 2016).1 Yet the projects to be implemented are to be initiated by the African countries and submitted to the board. The conditionality for accepting project proposals is set by the executive board, which also approves such projects (CAFI, 2023).2 Worse still, the projects are implemented not by any of the central African countries who submitted a project proposal, but by selected bilateral organizations of developed countries, such as the Japan Development Agency (JICA), Belgian Development Agency (Enabel), and French Development Agency (AFD ), and multilateral institutions, including United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOP), United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF), United Nations Human Settlement Programme (UN-Habitat), United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the World Bank and UNDP.

In summary, the Central African countries have no say in the decision-making, implementation structure, or project-review process. Yet the African countries involved must provide necessary support, including financial, political, and security support. CAFI is a project aimed at protecting a globally important forest resources that will help to not only absorb and store carbon, mostly from the developed economies, but also reduce emissions. The African countries involved are providing their resources for the global good, yet they are not considered important in decisions on how to fund the protection of these forests’ resources. Protecting these forests will mean that the citizens will have limited right to use the forest resources, which can provide sources of wealth for their countries (agricultural, mineral resources, and so on).

While the Western countries see their involvement in the CAFI as benevolence to Africa countries, they also count CAFI projects as part of their contribution to climate action and green development. This is then taken into account as part of their climate financing and carbon reductions. Yet, the projects are portrayed to Africans as assistance to them. It is the African countries that are providing the world with free resources to reduce emissions; yet this will not be counted as their contribution to climate financing and carbon emission reduction, but merely as support. The worst part of the fraud is that the Central African countries will still provide financial resources to facilitate smooth running of these projects.

More than this, approach to governance of the CAFI portrays Africans as lacking the wherewithal and credibility to undertake projects that will benefit them. This further underscore the neocolonialist character of developed countries, especially Western nations. It also shows how underdevelopment is deepened. This approach surely contributes to failure of this kind of initiative, yet the failure will be blamed on African countries, their lack of political accountability, cooperation, expertise, and the rest. Nonetheless, a review of the finances of the CAFI projects shows an attempt to defraud Africa—nay, the world.

CAFI Questionable Project Funding
According to the UNDP Multi-Partner Trust Fund (MPTF) office, which acts as administrative secretariat for CAFI projects, out of the $543.7 million in financial commitments by donor countries between 2016 and 2021, $501 million was deposited to the UNDP, while a sum of $194.1 million (38.7 percent of the deposit) was transferred from CAFI account to various implementing organizations. However, only $120.3 million, (representing 63 percent of transferred funds and 24 percent of the deposited funds) was actually spent in the six-year period by CAFI (UNDP, 2021).3 Yet when the story is told, it will be presented as if $543.7 million was spent on CAFI when, in reality, only a fraction of this amount actually was spent. In fact, the whole donation pales in comparison to the climate change funding needed by any of the Central African countries, not to mention the cost of emissions of the donor countries.

However, while the donors and multilateral partners paint African countries with the brush of corruption, the CAFI projects actually contained inherent corruption and mismanagement. For instance, out of the $158.5 million that could be accounted for in the expenditure, 48.6 percent went to administrative expenses, including $7.5 million (5.2 percent) for travel; indirect support cost of $12.3 million (8.44 percent), and personnel costS of $21.6 million (14.8 percent) of expenditures. This is aside the $6.4 million deducted at source from deposited funds as administrative agent fee. Out of the total expenditure accounted for, only $22.5 million (15.4 percent) was committed to grants and transfers, that is, the amount that went to beneficiaries. An undefined and opaque item called “contractual services expenses” gulped up $65 million (44.5 percent) of all expenses.

The category of “contractual services” was not defined by the report, but, given that there is already item for grants and transfers, and the fact that MPTF Office does not directly carry out the projects, but employs through agents, these items might refer to consultancy contracts. Even if the contracts are solely for direct impact projects, contractors will also collect their own contract fees and administrative charges, which can be up to between 10—20 percent of project sums, yet the implementing organizations spent $21.5 million on personnel, $7.5 million on travel, and $11.5 million on general operating costs! If these expenses were reported by African countries, the story would be spun as gargantuan corruption. From this analysis alone, it is clear that the CAFI programme is more or less like taking with the left hand most of what is given by the right hand.

Population Control: Neo-Colonial Ideology
Moving on from the expenses, the reality is that the CAFI has had limited impact on climate change or on the living conditions of the people of the African countries involved. In the first instance, reports of results and impacts are tainted with credibility deficiency, as it is the same group of organizations that funded and implemented the projects that are measuring the impacts: a form of self-assessment. This cannot be an accountable and responsible way of reporting. Yet, from the report, it can be deduced that the projects are merely a grandstanding. For instance, in its report, UNDP noted that $33.8 million (19 percent) of the total expenditure on projects was for demographic control (population control). The funders, in a questionable approach to Africa’s climate change problem, believe that population control is a potent way to reduce emissions, not sustainable urban planning and development. This shows how foreign donors use so-called assistance and aid to achieve their own agendas, especially for Africa.

While the impact of population on development vary widely with complex relationship, the singular narrative approach to it by the western policy makers is aimed at imposing an ideology. For instance, Africa has been losing its youthful population and expertise to Europe and North America as a way of escaping poverty and strife, which shows the impact of population emigration on development. Developing Africa’s economy can benefit greatly from its population. Indeed, one of the selling points of some industrialised countries such as United States, China and India, is their population. In any case, controlling population will not have immediate impact on protection of the rainforests, as its outcome will only manifest decades after when the new-borns would have matured. Therefore, the narrative about population as a factor for deforestation is not only wrong but also unscientific, while attempt to enforce a deliberate population control as a solution to climate change is simply fraudulent and criminal. Yet, this narrative is not only sold to Africa, but is being incorporated as a fundamental aspect of western countries’ aid policy and foreign policy towards Africa. This obviously is not aimed at promoting development in Africa, but at best, using a shortcut to avoid responsibility towards Africa’s underdevelopment, and to further deepen its underdevelopment and enslavement.

It is therefore not strange to discover that the total expenditure on population control is more than the allocation towards clean cooking facilities and green energy, especially in DR Congo, where most of the population control expenditures were spent. While $2.5 million was used (35.7 percent of $7 million approved) for clean cooking stoves, $23.4 million (70 percent of $33 million approved) was used for population control, mostly on consultancy and contraceptives. Worse still, the demographic control program did not include any funding for the health of children and mothers, especially as relating to diseases that increase childhood and maternal mortality. Furthermore, there is little or no funding for green power like solar and wind, which, alongside funding for clean cooking (especially through waste energy conversion), could have reduced significantly the rate of use of wood as energy sources.

Skewed Project Implementation
The $2.5 million spent on clean cooking stoves was 1) at a costly market rate in a country with high population of poor people; 2) too little, as only 35,000 cookstoves have been sold to date in DR Congo, where about 96 percent of households use unclean cooking systems and 80 percent have no access to electricity. Interestingly, so-called clean cooking is not actually a sustainable system, as it still involves the use of wood and charcoal, though in the UNDP’s self-defined “efficient” way. Also, the use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking is not actually a clean energy approach, as it still involves the use of fossil fuel (a major contributor to carbon emissions and climate change) as primary fuel. Yet, the main aim of the CAFI is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through rainforest protection. The disturbing aspect is that a significant amount of the money could have provided a cleaner and affordable green renewable energy (such as solar, wind, or waste biomass) to many families and communities on the basis of direct investment. Rather than fund clean renewable energy, the program funded fast-growing trees as source of biomass for cooking. However, on the basis of market fundamentalist approach, coupled with a neocolonialist ideology that aims to utilise the CAFI program to promote the interests of donor countries under the guise of aid and assistance, few impacts could be made, despite some of the funds being committed to clean energy.

Parameter FONAREDD (CAFI in DRC) result Realities
Forest and Wood Use Management a. 500,000 hectares restored between 2016 and 2021 through procured titles
b. 4469 hectares of wood energy plantation with fast growing tree cultivated.

c. 17,260 hectares of used wood forest left to regenerate for supply of wood for energy.



499,059 hectares forest loss in 2021 alone.
Alternative Energy 34,601 clean stoves sold in 5 years


4 percent (4.1 million) of population has access to clean cooking (World Bank, 2021)4
Agricultural Support 27,500 households benefitedfrom support for productive and sustainable agriculture that spares forest land i. 62 percent (63.4 million people) of the total population depends on subsistence agriculture; and 72 percent of rural household are poor (IFAD, 2019).5
ii. 15.6 million people are food insecure; 3.4 million children acutely malnourished (IFAD, 2020)6

Electricity Access No impact recorded 80 percent of the population has no access to electricity 7
Poverty 2,185 beneficiaries had their income doubled through increased revenue from improved agricultural practices for rice and corn farming 62 percent (about 60 million are poor) (World Bank, 2023)8
Furthermore, the accounting system for measuring the result of the program is suspect. For instance, UNDP reported that it set up many forest management and monitoring committees while sustainable agricultural practice systems were also set up, meaning that there has been no increase in deforestation. However, the conclusion that it is the CAFI program that led to reduction in deforestation is not supported by any scientific data or proof. Aside the fact that there are many similar programs going on in these countries, other social and economic factors also affect the rate of deforestation. A significant number of CAFI forest management and governance programs are based on consultancy training, capacity building, and setting up local committees, with limited resources for technologically driven solutions. CAFI’s forest management policies did not include adequate investment in modern agriculture with sustainable systems, which could have increased land productivity and reduced land use for agricultural purposes while sustaining the forest. These, alongside investment in clean renewable energy systems and social programs, such as sustainable mass housing, will reduce deforestation and land degradation.

In summary, the CAFI program has ended up as a huge program that promotes the interests of the funders and donors rather than addressing climate change fundamentally, developing the target countries or helping to develop adaptation capacity and resilience of those countries. Rather, it gives fake credentials to the donor countries, provide free money to implementing organizations while undermining serious development in the African countries. It is ironic that a program worth over $500 million (as at 2021) will not add a single kilowatt of clean renewable electricity, but only provide “clean” cooking stoves and gas cookers to about 30,000 people and increase agricultural revenue of about 40,000 people (if we take the report of results by CAFI at their face value).

The CAFI program, as it has been shown, is a case of how climate funding actually undermines development in Africa.

Notes:
↩ CAFI. (2016). EB.2015.01: Rules and Procedures of the Executive Board of CAFI. Available at: www.cafi.org
↩ CAFI (2023). The CAFI Executive Board. www.cafi.org
↩ UNDP (2021). CAFI Trust Fund 2021 Consolidated Report. Available at: mptf.undp.org
↩ World bank (2022). Data: Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population)—Congo, Dem. Rep. data.worldbank.org
↩ IFAD (2019). Democratic Republic of the Congo Country Strategic Opportunities Programme 2019-2024. EB 2019/127/R.21/Rev.1. webapps.ifad.org
↩ IFAD (2020). The Democratic Republic of the Congo and IFAD partner for better nutrition and resilience for small-scale farmers facing COVID-19. Press release No.: IFAD/29/2020. www.ifad.org
↩ World bank (2022). Data: Access to electricity (% of population)—Congo, Dem. Rep. data.worldbank.org
↩ World Bank (2023). World Bank in DRC. www.worldbank.org

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Fri Oct 27, 2023 3:15 pm

An Overdue Look at the Environmental Crisis

“When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
’The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’
’The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master — that’s all.”
― Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass



Our global environmental crisis is widely understood to be reaching a crucial moment; the danger signals are flashing almost daily. Yet a certain complacency follows the many catastrophic climate events attributable to a critically injured environment. People talk easily of a climate Armageddon, while maintaining business as usual.



Is this fatalism? Are there onerous sacrifices necessary to save the planet? Are there insurmountable obstacles to finding solutions? Are we beyond the point-of-no-return?



These questions need urgent answers.



The truth is that some leftists have been addressing these problems and ringing the alarm for decades. But some of us, though recognizing the crisis, have paid only lip-service to its solutions, neglecting to apply the unique perspective that Marxism could bring. Looking at the crisis through the lens of class and exploitation surely offers a deeper understanding than the sensationalism and superficiality of the capitalist media and their punditry.



Mea culpa.



Hopefully, my own absolution began with acquiring a copy of Monthly Review’s July-August issue devoted to perspectives on the environmental crisis from a left, Marxist-friendly perspective. Entitled Planned Degrowth: Ecosocialism and Sustainable Human Development (volume 75, number 3), the volume offers eleven contributions, with an important, essential, introductory essay by John Bellamy Foster. Foster has labored productively in the vineyards of ecosocialism for some time. The journal number comes highly recommended.



Much of the popular response to the unfolding environmental disaster is reducible to cultural environmentalism. Advocates call for a change in consumption patterns-- switching from products whose production, reproduction, or disposal is most harmful to our land, water, or air. Some cultural environmentalists demand a radical overall cut in consumption, insist on the elimination of conspicuous consumption, or even pose a philosophical challenge to the very concept of consumerism so prevalent in capitalist societies.



But cultural environmentalism alone does not thoroughly address the institutions that encourage or incur needless carbon emissions, senseless waste, and the depletion of precious resources-- institutions like the military, the security, judicial, and penal system, the sales and marketing effort, mass entertainment, etc. Nor does it challenge capitalism itself.



On a global level, conserving only the twentieth-century resources allocated for war making, the social wealth lost to the destruction of past wars and necessitated by the remedial costs of death and suffering would put us uncountable years behind our current rendezvous with disaster. Even eliminating today’s bloated military budgets and stopping the current wars would lessen the immediate crisis dramatically.



Most of the mainstream liberal and social democratic cultural environmentalists ignore these institutions that are deeply embedded in the capitalist infrastructure, instead opting for campaigns to eliminate or recycle the most energy-soaked articles of convenience-- cans, bottles, plastic bags, etc. or forcing the issue into the thick, impenetrable muck of bourgeois politics, legislative decision-making, and state regulation.



The Green New Deal, the consensus approach of the techno-environmentalists, promises to restructure capitalism by rewarding positive changes in energy generation and use, while sanctioning corporate foot dragging and avoidance. Implementation rests with the commitment of political puppets of corporate power-- the political strata. Again, there is no substantial challenge to capitalism and its institutions with techno-environmentalism.



The contributors to the Monthly Review anthology more or less understand the shortcomings of the liberal/social democratic approach. They grasp that capitalism-- with its insatiable thirst for accumulation-- cannot meet the challenge of environmental catastrophe. That reality animates all of the selections in Planned Degrowth. Yet, among the writers, there is little agreement on how to move beyond capitalism (of all the contributors, Ying Chen makes the strongest case for a robust, planned socialist economy genuinely independent of the capitalist mode of production).



Resolving those differences is made all the more difficult by the ambiguities and confusions accompanying the central concepts of planning and degrowth.



It is commendable that nearly all of the participants understand that market forces alone are inadequate to extract humanity from the catastrophe awaiting us. Moreover, the alternative to markets necessarily is some form of economic planning-- some form of conscious human-based decision making. This alone is a departure from the left’s post-Soviet love-fest with market mechanisms and market socialism-- indeed, a welcome departure opening the way to a more robust socialism. But what form should the planning take? Who should make the plan?



Foster wisely sees the cause of environmental disaster in the capitalist’s insatiable need to “accumulate! accumulate!” -- borrowing Marx’s succinct summation. Accordingly, the challenge is to organize the economy around social usefulness, and not profit-- “focusing on use value rather than exchange value,” to employ Foster’s words.



Certainly, contrasting use value against exchange value, advantaging the former, requires some exiting from the market mechanism and a turn toward a different mechanism for the allocation of resources: conscious human decision-making, i.e. planning.



This makes a neat, compelling argument for some form of planning.



Unfortunately, most of the contributors have little regard for the rich twentieth-century experience in planning afforded by the now-defunct European socialist community. It is fashionable, among Western academic Marxists (or Marxians, as they sometimes like to be called), to heap scorn on the Soviet central planning mechanism in its different iterations despite its relative successes even without the benefit of today’s astounding computational powers. Apart from Paul Cockshott and some of his colleagues, there is little interest in exploring how a similar planning mechanism could be optimized using available technologies.



Foster, to his credit, offers a very modest defense of Soviet planning, especially regarding its impact on the environment. But others acknowledge the need for planning without providing even a sketch of how that would be done.



Instead, several writers revisit the old New Left fetish of participatory democracy, as though the more fingers in the planning pie, the better, regardless of the results. This reaches the limits of absurdity with the Venezuelan rural commune proposed as the model for a planning mechanism to rescue the world economy from the throes of environmental crisis, a utopian fantasy.



The other Western Marxist obsession is decentralization. Apparently, the political model beloved by the North American-European left is the Swiss canton, the landsgemeinde, combining the smallest possible political units with the most direct democracy. How such decentralized planning could successfully redirect a modern juggernaut economy to escape the tyranny of markets requires a giant leap of faith (As Nicolas Graham understates, “... it is quite difficult to imagine effective planning… without some coordinating authority and external arbiter.”)



Planned Degrowth’s other key idea, degrowth, is also underdeveloped. Informing this concept is the looming disaster cited by Foster and implicit with all of the authors:



The world scientific consensus, as represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established that the global average temperature needs to be kept below a 1.5-degree Centigrade increase over pre-industrial levels this century-- or else, with a disproportionately higher level of risk, “well below” a 2-degree Centigrade increase-- if climate destabilization is not to threaten absolute catastrophe… All of this is predicated on reaching net zero (in fact, real zero) carbon emissions by 2050, which gives a fifty-fifty chance that the climate-temperature boundary will not be exceeded.



Understandably, faced with these limits, most of us recognize that, in some sense or another, we cannot have our cake and eat it, too. That is, growing carbon emissions, growing consumption patterns, more broadly-- growing GDP as support for growing consumption or growing population, and any and all other forms of growth that potentially increase carbon emissions cannot be simultaneously sustained without an existential threat to life on the planet.



But is it misleading, simplistic, and maybe even harmful to popularize degrowth in general as the solution to the life-or-death challenge of carbon-emission limits? Are there different kinds of “growth” -- minimal emissions, emissions-neutral, or even emissions-free-- that sidestep the rendezvous with climate disaster? Would not market-free, planned economic growth, itself, forestall that rendezvous? Can we not envision a growing, planned socialist economy that stems or reverses increases in emissions?



In the historically nuanced Marxist perspective, growth of the productive forces of society need not be coupled with an anarchical, unfettered, profit-driven economy, nor has it always been so associated. On the other hand, the preferred capitalist measuring stick of growth-- gross domestic product-- reflects that association: in the capitalist industrial era, growth (GDP), national wealth, the unregulated exploitation of carbon-based energy, and the exploitation of labor are inextricably bound.



For Marxists, there is no such necessary link. Free of the wasteful uses of social wealth for class aggrandizement, class suppression, and endless accumulation, growth can be redefined as the unbounded improvement in both the quality and prospects of all human life. For example, the development of vaccines for Covid or future attacks of new viruses requires the further development of productive forces and constitutes a growth in social wealth, but with far less impact on the environment when undertaken outside the framework of the profit-driven capitalist system.



Marx and Engels gave us a different perspective on growth in The German Ideology, linking the development of forces of production directly to the improvement of humanity’s survivability and flourishing, while faced with ever-arising challenges from nature and other humans. They remind us that the mode of production is not only what people produce but how they produce. That ever-present, evolving challenge may, in some sense, at some time, require “growth,” but growth away from carbon emissions, waste, excess, inefficiency, and greed. Thus, we would define a new, humane concept of growth and production.



Foster comes close to recognizing this possibility by distinguishing “a quantitative as well a qualitative sense” of productive forces. But he seems to overlook that the qualitative expansion of productive forces might well be qualitative production, production independent of fossil fuels, carbon emissions, and environmental degradation-- production of new ideas, new living arrangements, new divisions of labor, etc. This would be a more refined notion of growth, far more useful than the BEA or OECD definition of gross domestic product that degrowth addresses.



Two contributors, Isikara and Narin, are dismissive of the explanatory power of the second law of thermodynamics in the social world. Yet it does capture the fundamental struggle that only humans wage with ultimately limited, but astonishing success against a system’s tendency toward disorder. The development of productive forces was-- qualitatively or quantitatively-- the primary effective human response to this law: the law of entropy. The idea of degrowth, so superficially compelling in its simplicity, fails to account for this universal struggle. The environmental crisis is only the latest chapter in the perpetual struggle against species extinction. Like previous struggles, it will take development (and in the broadest sense, growth) of the productive forces to win, even if only temporarily from the inevitable disorder of closed systems.



Perhaps the biggest obstacle to a just, viable solution to the environmental crisis is the gross inequalities found in the capitalist countries and found between the advanced capitalist countries and those less advanced. The weakness of the degrowth mantra aside, any immediate solution to the crisis will require limits to carbon emissions, limits that will fall unfairly upon the disadvantaged unless some compensatory distribution-- national and global affirmative action-- is established. In other words, should sacrifices be necessary, they must be fairly imposed. No poor country or poor population should be required or even asked to make commensurate sacrifices with wealthy countries or wealthy elites. More importantly, their development-- their ‘catching up’-- should not be delayed as long as they lag behind their wealthier counterparts. Jason Hickel and Dylan Sullivan make a powerful historico-empirical argument that capitalism can never meet this demand in their contribution.



The only large-scale affirmative action program ever effectively actuated was the post-World War II collaboration of the socialist countries, coordinated by the Council on Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA, known in the West as Comecon). The CMEA based itself on the Leninist doctrine and the history of intensive investment of Soviet resources in the former Russian empire’s disadvantaged oppressed nations. Cognizant of the uneven development produced and reproduced by class society, the Soviet Union proportionately devoted far more resources to the “backward” constituent republics than to the more advanced Russian Republic.



The CMEA sought to continue this policy with the post-war socialist community. For example, the Soviet Union would offer an extended contract for oil to Cuba at the lowest market price of a previous period, while agreeing to purchase a fixed amount of sugar at the highest market price of that period. In addition, the Soviet Union would grant the poorer member state favorable, extended payment terms. It should be noted that the Soviet beet crop was more than adequate to supply Soviet sugar needs at a lower cost. At the same time, the Soviet Union would provide grants and low-interest, long-term loans for Cuban infrastructure and industrial development.



This, and most internal CMEA agreements, typified affirmative action on a massive scale to correct uneven development.



Given that capitalism has never known or even devised such a leveling, developmentally egalitarian approach in international affairs nor that any country today practices it (apart from socialist Cuba, generously, but with limited resources), the necessity for global affirmative action on the environment would seem to be a powerful argument for socialism among leftist activists.



True to the history of Western Marxism, European-North American socialists find little worthwhile in the history of the Soviet Union, so the argument seldom sees the light of day.



That is not to say that the contributors to Degrowth Planning are unaware of the inequalities standing in the way of any fair and equitable answer to the environmental crisis. Foster is explicit: “At the same time, the poorer countries with low ecological footprints have to be allowed to develop in a general process that includes contraction in throughput of energy and materials in the rich countries and the convergence of per capita consumption in physical terms in the world as a whole.”



But what is lacking with all the participants’ accounts is agency. Who will tackle these challenges? Who will adopt a program that incorporates these considerations? Who will build a movement to move a program forward?



It would be unfair to fault the twelve academics contributing to this issue for having no ready answer to these questions. Nonetheless, if theory is to matter, we must have practical answers (Isikara and Narin almost broach this issue, but deliver it in unnecessarily opaque academic language) and avoid utopia-spinning. Too often intellectuals deliver theory in the passive voice: “What is objectively necessary at this point in human history is therefore a revolutionary transformation… governing production, consumption, and distribution… a shift away from the system of monopoly capital, exploitation, expropriation, waste, and the endless drive to accumulation.”



Yes, but who is to accomplish this and how are they to do it?



It is far easier to say who will not do it! But surely it can be conceded that we need a class-based revolutionary party committed to a robust socialism that will wrest political and economic power from the capitalist class. Should we not be vigorously working toward that end if we want to avoid our date with doom?



Despite my reservations, I strongly recommend the special Monthly Review issue devoted to the environmental crisis, entitled Planned Degrowth: ecosocialism and sustainable human development.



Greg Godels

zzsblogml@gmail.com

http://zzs-blg.blogspot.com/2023/10/an- ... risis.html

Goddamn Greg, you been reading my mind or sumthin'? Better and more coherently expressed what I have been railing about for the past few years, especially about 'de-growth'. Kudos!
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Fri Nov 03, 2023 2:17 pm

Elongating the Fossil Fuel Era, One Trick at a Time
Posted on November 2, 2023 by Yves Smith

Yves here. While it’s not hard to appreciate the value of this post describing fossil fuel incremental ploys to keep their profits, I’m perplexed by the choice of the word “elongating.” I would have expected “extending” to evoke “extending the life.” Perhaps I get too many of the wrong sort of junk e-mails, but “elongating” has more manhood-enhancing connotations. Perhaps that was the point.

I also have to differ with Neuburger’s claim that every civilization collapses. Some die by conquest.

By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published at God’s Spies


I want to present a group of data points and let you conclude what you will. I’ve already concluded what I will — it’s in the headline. But please be the judge yourself.

Every Civilization Collapses

The first data point is a truism. Consider this, from Michael Klare, writing in The Nation:

“In his 2005 bestseller Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, geographer Jared Diamond focused on past civilizations that confronted severe climate shocks, either adapting and surviving or failing to adapt and disintegrating. Among those were the Puebloan culture of Chaco Canyon, N.M., the ancient Mayan civilization of Mesoamerica, and the Viking settlers of Greenland. Such societies, having achieved great success, imploded when their governing elites failed to adopt new survival mechanisms to face radically changing climate conditions.

“Bear in mind that, for their time and place, the societies Diamond studied supported large, sophisticated populations. Pueblo Bonito, a six-story structure in Chaco Canyon, contained up to 600 rooms, making it the largest building in North America until the first skyscrapers rose in New York some 800 years later. Mayan civilization is believed to have supported a population of more than 10 million people at its peak between 250 and 900 A.D., while the Norse Greenlanders established a distinctively European society around 1000 A.D. in the middle of a frozen wasteland. Still, in the end, each collapsed utterly and their inhabitants either died of starvation, slaughtered each other, or migrated elsewhere, leaving nothing but ruins behind.

“The question today is: Will our own elites perform any better than the rulers of Chaco Canyon, the Mayan heartland, and Viking Greenland? [emphasis mine]

And the climate connection: “As Diamond argues, each of those civilizations arose in a period of relatively benign climate conditions, when temperatures were moderate and food and water supplies adequate. In each case, however, the climate shifted wrenchingly, bringing persistent drought or, in Greenland’s case, much colder temperatures. Although no contemporary written records remain to tell us how the ruling elites responded, the archaeological evidence suggests that they persisted in their traditional ways until disintegration became unavoidable.”

Keep the bolded question in mind; it’s the reason I quoted the passage.

Will our own elites perform any better than the rulers of Chaco Canyon, the Mayan heartland, and Viking Greenland?

Let’s take a look.
Fracking Extends the Fossil Fuel Era

The following 2018 video, though superficially dry, is actually quite accessible. It walks you through four charts, Each one matters; each is easy to understand.



Chart 1 appears at 4:12 in the clip. It shows the history of natural gas production in the United States, beginning with the dominance of onshore production, followed by the dominance of offshore production, followed by what should have been decline. Fracking saved the industry.

Image

Chart 2 appears in a couple of forms. Let’s look at this, starting with the discussion at 5:30 in the clip. It shows what the exploitation of fracking did to the wind industry.

Image

Chart 3 is discussed starting at 6:57. It shows, first, predictions of global warming under several scenarios from a paper published in 2012, followed by subsequent actual global warming (added red dots) over the prediction period.

The highest red dot is an extrapolation. I shows that 2 degrees warming arrives in the 2030s.

Image

Chart 4 is discussed at 10:80. It shows the future of shale gas (fracking) development. The colored area shows gas produced per day. The dots show the number of wells producing that gas.


The main point of this video, however, appears at 3:41, where the speaker lists the ‘“unintended consequences” of shale gas production:

Elongation of the fossil fuel era (illustrated by charts 1 and 4)
Depression of renewable energy supply (illustrated by chart 2)
Worsening of climate change (illustrated by chart 3)
My question:

Is the elongation of the fossil fuel era an “unintended consequence” of our response to global warming, or the whole point?

Hold that thought as we continue.

Will a Hydrogen Economy Save Us?

The latest godsend, if you believe the mainstream press, is energy from the burning of hydrogen. The formula you normally see is this:

2H2 + O2 → 2H2O

though in the real world, one with a nitrogen-rich atmosphere, the following is more common:

H2 + O2 + N2 → H2O + NOx

Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) are sources of smog and acid rain. They also damage the stratospheric ozone layer. So less than perfect already.

Hydrogen Is a Greenhouse Gas

Even so, you’ll note there’s no carbon in those equations. So is the shiny new hydrogen economy likely to save us? Short answer: No. From a 2022 European Geosciences Union paper, “Climate consequences of hydrogen emissions,” we learn (emphases mine):

“Given the urgency to decarbonize global energy systems, governments and industry are moving ahead with efforts to increase deployment of hydrogen technologies, infrastructure, and applications at an unprecedented pace, including USD billions in national incentives and direct investments. While zero- and low-carbon hydrogen hold great promise to help solve some of the world’s most pressing energy challenges, hydrogen is also an indirect greenhouse gas whose warming impact is both widely overlooked and underestimated. This is largely because hydrogen’s atmospheric warming effects are short-lived – lasting only a couple decades – but standard methods for characterizing climate impacts of gases consider only the long-term effect from a one-time pulse of emissions.”

So atmospheric hydrogen is indeed a greenhouse gas, though indirect; its effect is just shorter-lived than atmospheric CO2. Also, it leaks.

“[T]his long-term framing masks a much stronger warming potency in the near to medium term. This is of concern because hydrogen is a small molecule known to easily leak into the atmosphere, and the total amount of emissions (e.g., leakage, venting, and purging) from existing hydrogen systems is unknown. Therefore, the effectiveness of hydrogen as a decarbonization strategy, especially over timescales of several decades, remains unclear.”

Most Hydrogen Is Produced Using Coal and Other Fossil Fuels

Hydrogen’s questionable usefulness as a decarbonizing strategy hasn’t stopped massive investment in it. If you know how it’s produced, you can see why fossil fuels makers are promoting it (emphasis mine):

“Hydrogen fuel can be made in a number of different ways, often referred to by associated colors. Green hydrogen, for example, refers to hydrogen produced from water, exclusively by using other renewable energy sources such as wind or solar energy to power the process. Gray and blue hydrogen refers to hydrogen produced from methane, using any form of energy to power the process.

“Producing green hydrogen has no direct greenhouse gas emissions. But gray and blue hydrogen production creates carbon dioxide (a planet-warming greenhouse gas) as a by-product, which is then either released into the atmosphere (in the case of gray hydrogen) or captured and stored (in the case of blue hydrogen).

“Black hydrogen is the least environmentally friendly form and refers to a process that uses coal to power hydrogen production. Currently, 99% of the United States’ supply of hydrogen is sourced from fossil fuels such coal, according to the DOE.

“Environmental advocates nationwide have pushed back against gray and blue hydrogen projects, since sourcing the necessary methane to produce the hydrogen could provide revenue for fossil fuel companies, and since the production process creates carbon dioxide, which contributes to harmful climate warming.

“Instead, environmental advocates tend to support green hydrogen, which is produced only with renewable energy.”

If the goal is to extend the fossil fuel industry as far into the future as possible, hydrogen is key. The industry can sell the output (hydrogen power) as “climate-friendly” while continuing to monetize the decidedly unfriendly sources used to create it, like coal (black hydrogen) and methane (blue and gray hydrogen).

Labeling methane-produced hydrogen “blue” was especially brilliant.

Biden Administration Is Building Out Hydrogen Infrastructure
Perhaps that’s why Joe Biden and the industry-friendly Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm are in favor of expanding hydrogen capacity:

“Investing in American Infrastructure and Manufacturing is a key part of Bidenomics and the President’s Investing in America agenda.

“Today, President Biden and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm are announcing seven regional clean hydrogen hubs that were selected to receive $7 billion in Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding to accelerate the domestic market for low-cost, clean hydrogen.”

For more on Granholm, see here:

God’s Spies by Thomas Neuburger
Industry Calls the Climate Shots in the Biden Administration
In contrast to the praise Biden is getting from people like Maureen Dowd (the essence of her latest column is “See, Bernie likes Biden and he likes Bernie”), Biden’s actual deeds, especially…
Read more
2 years ago · 1 like · Thomas Neuburger
The hydrogen bottom line – a massive distraction
As Jane Patton points out at Common Dreams:

“Hydrogen is dangerous, partly because it distracts from the real climate solutions we so desperately need. The world’s best climate scientists have been clear that to maintain a livable planet, we must phase out fossil fuels and transition to truly renewable energy now. Hydrogen hubs take us in the opposite direction by further embedding us in the fossil fuel economy.”

A distraction indeed, and a lucrative one.

Et Tu, Canada?

Which brings us back to our initial questions:

Is the elongation of the fossil fuel era an “unintended consequence” of our response to global warming, or the whole point?

and

Will our own elites perform any better than the rulers of Chaco Canyon, the Mayan heartland, and Viking Greenland?

What do you think?

To help with the answers, I’ll close with a light-hearted video. Before you watch, though, consider the use of of the words “our response” in the first question above. It suggests two further questions:

Are we really really in control of “our response” to global warming? If not, what should we do?

And now for the video. Have fun watching. They certainly had fun making it. (NSFW, though very home-office friendly.)



https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11 ... -time.html
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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Mon Nov 06, 2023 4:05 pm

Amazon deforestation: A time bomb for new pandemics
November 4, 2023
Environmental destruction strengthens existing diseases and exposes humans to new pathogens

Image

Camila M. Romano is a researcher in the Faculty of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo

by Camila M. Romano

Home to the greatest biodiversity on the planet, the Amazon is also a ticking time bomb for the emergence or resurgence of diseases with pandemic potential. This is because environmental degradation and altered landscapes are important factors in this process, which are exacerbated during periods of extreme drought, such as the one now affecting the region.

In the Amazon in particular, the paving of the BR-319 highway, linking Porto Velho to Manaus, is a significant source of concern. Conservative estimates predict that deforestation around the road will triple in the next 25 years, mainly due to land speculation. This is made worse by the fact that 90% of the area directly affected consists of untouched forest.

And deforestation is not a static situation, but dynamic and unpredictable, resulting in the fragmentation of forests, increasing the risk of fires and reducing the biodiversity of the affected areas. The association between human action in the Amazon, climate change, disorganized migration and precarious social development creates a favorable environment for the emergence and resurgence of diseases, it has been shown.

Known diseases…

This process can happen in different ways. The degradation of conserved areas and the diversion of rivers and extreme drought, can, for example, lead to water and food shortages. And this poses a direct threat of malnutrition, affecting the health of local populations and leaving them more vulnerable to known diseases.

Lack of clean water and poor hygiene in drought conditions also increase the risk of diseases transmitted by contaminated water and food, such as cholera and hepatitis, and viruses that cause severe diarrhoea, such as rotavirus. Making matters worse, the incidence of diseases associated with poor fish preservation, such as rhabdomyolysis (black urine disease) — which is not infectious — also rises during extreme droughts.

Global warming is also a critical factor in this process, allowing an increased presence of mosquitoes that transmit diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. An increase of just a few degrees in the planet’s average temperature can allow them to colonize areas that were previously inaccessible. In regions where they are present, environmental degradation can increase or decrease rainfall periods, favoring flooding and the maintenance of standing water, and facilitating their proliferation.

Not surprisingly, vector-borne diseases are classic cases of outbreaks due to environmental imbalance. The recent humanitarian crisis of the Yanomami, a tragedy caused by illegal mining, land grabbing and lack of access to health services, is a case in point. In addition to the contamination of water and the environment by mercury, mining activity has created a favorable environment for the reproduction and spread of mosquito species of the genus Anopheles, the transmitter of the protozoan that causes malaria.

This is because digging ravines to extract gold and minerals creates pools of water that act as artificial breeding sites. In addition, mining activity increases the human population in these remote regions, which facilitates the spread of malaria. In numerical terms, while between 2008-2012 around 20% of malaria cases occurred in Yanomami territory, between 2018-2022 almost 50% of cases affected this population.

… and new diseases

Zoonotic diseases (transmitted from animals to people) present an even greater potential problem. While some pathogens (disease-causing agents such as viruses and bacteria) are capable of infecting one or a few host species, others are more generalized and can, if there is contact and opportunity, infect a wide variety of animals.

This type of “jump” from one host to another occurs constantly among animals in their natural habitat, for example from bats to non-human primates, small rodents and other mammals. However, there is usually a balance in the circulation of these agents.

But when habitats are destroyed, for whatever reason (human or otherwise), local species migrate to more conserved areas in search of food and shelter. And this can lead them to areas close to human settlements — and facilitate contact between wild animals and people.

Impossible to predict, but possible to monitor

Unfortunately, preventing zoonoses is not an easy task — there is no effective method that can predict what the next emerging disease will be, or from where it will emerge.

But it is possible to keep an eye on it. To do this, we monitor the circulation of resistant viruses and bacteria in samples of water, animals and vectors, as well as humans. Animals such as bats, rodents and primates are subjected to next-generation sequencing technologies for early detection of circulating agents that could pose a threat to human health.

And yet it’s not enough. To be effective, surveillance must be constant and cover local and national levels. Although Brazil has the capacity and basic technical infrastructure for this, few actions are actually implemented. In addition to surveillance, we need investments in faster and more accurate diagnostic methods that can help contain the spread of potential new diseases with pandemic potential.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2023/1 ... pandemics/

1.5°C global heating likely to be locked in by 2030
November 4, 2023
The world has less than a decade to reach ‘net zero’ emissions – and even then warming could continue

Image
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“Every fraction of a degree of warming will make life harder for people and ecosystems.”

by Sam Ezra Fraser-Baxter & Hayley Dunning
Imperial College London

Without rapid carbon dioxide emission reductions, the world has a 50% chance of locking in 1.5°C of warming before 2030. A new study, led by Imperial College London researchers and published October 30 in Nature Climate Change, is the most up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of the global carbon budget. The carbon budget is an estimate of the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that can be emitted while keeping global warming below certain temperature limits.

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature increase to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The remaining carbon budget is commonly used to assess global progress against these targets.

The new study estimates that for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, there are less than 250 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide left in the global carbon budget.

The researchers warn that if carbon dioxide emissions remain at 2022 levels of about 40 gigatonnes per year, the carbon budget will be exhausted by around 2029, committing the world to warming of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.

The finding means the budget is less than previously calculated and has approximately halved since 2020 due to the continued increase of global greenhouse gas emissions, caused primarily from the burning of fossil fuels as well as an improved estimate of the cooling effect of aerosols, which are decreasing globally due to measures to improve air quality and reduce emissions.

Rapidly closing

Dr Robin Lamboll, research fellow at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, and the lead author of the study, said:

“Our finding confirms what we already know – we’re not doing nearly enough to keep warming below 1.5°C. The remaining budget is now so small that minor changes in our understanding of the world can result in large proportional changes to the budget. However, estimates point to less than a decade of emissions at current levels. The lack of progress on emissions reduction means that we can be ever more certain that the window for keeping warming to safe levels is rapidly closing.”

Professor Joeri Rogelj, Director of Research at the Grantham Institute and Professor of Climate Science & Policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, said:

“This carbon budget update is both expected and fully consistent with the latest UN Climate Report. That report from 2021 already highlighted that there was a one in three chance that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C could be as small as our study now reports. This shows the importance of not simply looking at central estimates, but also considering the uncertainty surrounding them.”

The study also found that the carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 2°C is approximately 1,200 gigatonnes, meaning that if carbon dioxide emissions continue at current levels, the central 2°C budget will be exhausted by 2046.

There has been much uncertainty in calculating the remaining carbon budget, due to the influence of other factors, including warming from gasses other than carbon dioxide and the ongoing effects of emissions that are not accounted for in models.

The new research used an updated dataset and improved climate modelling compared to other recent estimates, published in June, characterizing these uncertainties and increasing confidence around the remaining carbon budget estimates.

New insights into net zero

The strengthened methodology also gave new insights into the importance of the potential responses of the climate system to achieving net zero.

‘Net zero’ refers to achieving an overall balance between global emissions produced and emissions removed from the atmosphere. According to the modelling results in the study, there are still large uncertainties in the way various parts of the climate system will respond in the years just before net zero is achieved.

It is possible that the climate will continue warming due to effects such as melting ice, the release of methane, and changes in ocean circulation. However, carbon sinks such as increased vegetation growth could also absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide leading to a cooling of global temperatures before net zero is achieved.

Dr Lamboll says these uncertainties further highlight the urgent need to rapidly cut emissions.

“At this stage, our best guess is that the opposing warming and cooling will approximately cancel each other out after we reach net zero. However, it’s only when we only when we cut emissions and get closer to net zero that we will be able to see what the longer-term heating and cooling adjustments will look like. Every fraction of a degree of warming will make life harder for people and ecosystems. This study is yet another warning from the scientific community. Now it is up to governments to act.”

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2023/1 ... n-by-2030/

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Why Fossil Fuel Companies Can’t Leave Resources Stranded
Posted on November 4, 2023 by Yves Smith

Yves here. Notice that all these arguments about the primacy of the needs of fossil fuel industry needs versus, ultimately, the survival of civilization as we know it, boil down to “Because capitalism.”

By Dennis Meredith is the author of “The Climate Pandemic: How Climate Disruption Threatens Human Survival.” Originally published at Undark

ven as climate advocates call for eliminating fossil fuels, companies continue to launch major production plans. Earlier this year, for example, President Joe Biden’s administration approved the $8 billion Willow project on Alaska’s North Slope, which is expected to yield some 600 million barrels of oil over three decades. And last month, ExxonMobil announced a nearly $60 billion deal to acquire the oil producer Pioneer Natural Resources, which would allow it to more than double its production in the Permian Basin to 1.3 million barrels of oil and gas a day.


Hundreds of fossil fuel extraction projects now planned or already in production constitute so-called carbon bombs that hold the potential to emit more than a billion tons of carbon dioxide over their lifetimes, one analysis found. If these projects go forward, the researchers concluded, their emissions would be twice the limit that would keep global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). The United Nations Paris Agreement, ratified in 2015, seeks to hold the average global temperature increase to well below 2 C above preindustrial levels to minimize climate impacts, and advocates a 1.5 C increase as a major goal to avoid the most severe impacts.

Fossil fuel companies’ production levels render such temperature goals all but impossible to achieve. A report from the United Nations Environment Program and other groups concluded that in 2030, oil and gas production would total more than twice the amount projected to increase global temperatures by 1.5 C. By 2040, production would be almost three times that amount. Another study found that 40 percent of developed fossil fuel reserves must be left in the ground to give a 50-50 chance of staying below 1.5 C.

A critical component of climate advocates’ plans to limit oil and gas production is leaving in the ground, or stranding, large percentages of existing fossil fuel reserves. In 2015, A University College London study found that limiting heating to 2 C would require stranding a third of oil reserves, almost half of gas reserves, and more than 80 percent of coal reserves. In a 2021 update, a similar analysis found that meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 C target would mean leaving in the ground nearly 60 percent of oil and gas and 90 percent of coal reserves by 2050.

However, these scenarios minimize or ignore the profound legal, political, and economic obstacles to such stranding.

For one thing, because such strandings would damage corporations, company directors who approved them would be left open to personal lawsuits for breaching their corporate fiduciary duty. Such duty legally requires directors to act in the best interest of the company.

Stranding resources could also be thwarted by legal claims from investors seeking compensation under international treaties. Countries offer such treaties to encourage foreign investment, and if they are violated, those investors can demand arbitration. An analysis by researchers at Boston University estimated that such arbitration could lead to government liabilities of up to $340 billion for oil and gas projects worldwide. Risks would be even greater if coal mining and fossil fuel infrastructure were included.

One group found that aggressive energy policies to limit warming to 2 C would mean that $1.4 trillion in existing projects would lose their value. The researchers traced the risk of ownership of more than 40,000 oil and gas assets. Private investors would suffer the most through their pension funds and investments, the study found.

Resource stranding would be a political disaster for any government, given the potential skyrocketing energy prices and enormous investor losses that would result. Witness how quickly and dramatically the Biden administration responded to the recent rise in gasoline prices by selling oil from the U.S. oil reserve to keep the price low.

Finally, advocates of resource stranding ignore the fact that fossil fuels are inseparably fundamental to the functioning of the world economy, and deep reductions in carbon emissions under current policies is not a realistic possibility.

Certainly, fossil fuel companies have resorted to underhanded tactics to undermine climate solutions. And certainly, they have made very large profits. However, to make significant progress toward those solutions, climate advocates must stop simplistically demonizing those companies and develop realistic strategies to overcome the legal and economic hurdles discussed here.

The strategies would include light-speed development of a renewable energy infrastructure, especially power grids that can support a massive increase in renewable production. They would include policies to produce huge growth in energy efficiency — an unfortunately unsexy solution compared to megascale wind turbines and vast solar arrays. And they would include aggressive campaigning to support politicians willing to advocate for the hellishly difficult policies — such as ending fossil fuel subsidies and levying a carbon tax — needed to meet the climate crisis.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11 ... anded.html

New Report Issues Damning Verdict on Food’s Fossil Fuel Addiction
Posted on November 6, 2023 by Lambert Strether

By Clare Carlile, a Researcher at DeSmog, focusing on the agribusiness sector. Prior to joining the organisation in July 2022, she was Co-Editor and Researcher at Ethical Consumer Magazine, where she specialised in migrant workers’ rights in the food industry. Her work has been published in The Guardian and New Internationalist. Originally published at DeSmog.

Food systems are responsible for at least 15 percent of all global fossil fuel consumption, according to a major report launched ahead of the COP28 climate summit.

The analysis shows that the production, transport, and storage of food are driving greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to those of the EU and Russia combined.


Ultra processed foods like snacks, drinks and ready meals, along with chemical fertilisers made from natural gas, are singled out as major sources of pollution.

Published today (Thursday), the research comes weeks before global leaders gather in Dubai to discuss ways to limit catastrophic global heating. Food is set to be a major focus at this year’s annual climate conference, which is hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from November 30.

The Global Alliance for the Future of Food, a coalition of philanthropic organisations, and consultancy firm Dalberg Advisors published the report, which is titled: “Power Shift: Why We Need to Wean Industrial Food Systems Off Fossil Fuels”.

Its authors found that even if governments delivered on their 2030 climate pledges, by 2037 food-related fossil fuel use alone would blow the remaining portion of the 1.5C carbon budget, an estimate of the maximum amount of carbon dioxide emissions that can be emitted before tipping the planet into dangerous levels of global heating.

A third of the world’s food production is at risk from climate breakdown, and climate disasters are already increasing malnutrition in some parts of the world, according to UN scientists at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). At the same time, food systems are also a major contributor to global warming, accounting for over a third of total emissions worldwide.

Scientists and campaigners have raised major concerns about the lack of global action ahead of the COP28 summit, in a year of devastating impacts from climate-related weather events. The UAE is one of the world’s 10 largest producers of oil, and is also investing heavily in petrochemicals.

Patty Fong, programme director of climate and health & well-being at the Global Alliance for the Future of Food, and contributor to the report, told DeSmog that phasing out fossil fuels was crucial to the food industry’s green transition.

“Industrial food systems have a fossil fuel problem,” she said. “We cannot transform food systems and make them climate friendly until we have weaned our food systems — alongside other economic sectors — off oil and gas.”

Fossil Fuel Lock-in

The meat and dairy industry’s high methane emissions are increasingly well known. But this is the first time that the food systems’ dependency on fossil fuels have been calculated in this way.

The report identifies multiple drivers for the fossil fuel dependency – from energy-intensive ultra processed foods like snacks, drinks and ready meals in high income countries, to the global reliance on fossil fuel-based chemicals for crop production.

It finds that the majority of fossil fuel consumption is in the processing and packaging stage (42 percent), and in retail consumption and waste (38 percent). Agriculture production accounts for 20 percent of energy use in food systems, with fossil fuel use to produce fertilisers expected to increase substantially through 2050.

Natural gas is the basis for chemical fertilisers and pesticides, which are used to increase the growth of crops and kill off pests. Plastic packaging is produced from natural gas and crude oil.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), the global energy watchdog, warns that petrochemicals could drive a third of all growth in oil demand by 2030 and half by 2050.

In the United States alone, the fossil fuel industry planned investments of over $164 billion in petrochemicals between 2016 and 2023. Forty percent of petrochemicals – which are produced from fossil fuels – are used in food-related plastics and fertilisers.

Fong said that the fossil fuel sector was heavily investing in these industries in the face of the increasing demands for a transition away from oil, gas and coal for energy.

“We know that this is where the petrochemical industry is placing their bets,” she said.

“Decarbonisation of energy is shifting overtime. But synthetic fertiliser use is growing. We have to head off this growth.”

Just Transition

The report finds that any fossil fuel phase-out plans will need to be backed by major shifts in consumption and food markets. This includes supporting diets to be less fossil fuel intensive – for example moving away from ultra-processed foods to healthier alternatives.

These kinds of changes will require tackling the power of major corporate interests in the food industry, which is dominated by a handful of petrochemical, plastics, pesticide and fertiliser companies with a vested interest in maintaining fossil fuel dependency, the report says. Powerful processing companies, for example, make vast profits from energy-intensive goods like fast food and soft drinks.

Investigations by DeSmog have found major efforts by food corporations and allied governments to frame the debate on food and agriculture emissions in terms of technological solutions over more transformative changes, or those that reference dietary change. DeSmog researchers have also documented the use of greenwashing terms by industry to capture discussions ahead of COP28.

Fong said she was concerned that current responses to food and energy crises had seen governments and corporations double down on certain fossil fuel use, such as fertilisers.

“Oil prices shot up, commodity prices shot up, and the response was ‘we just need better access to fertiliser’,” she said. “How do we instead use this to create more resilience in the food system?

“This is not just about decarbonising chemical fertilisers. It’s about transitioning to regenerative and agroecological practices.”

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11 ... ction.html

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Thu Nov 09, 2023 3:31 pm

Resources to Save ‘Every Creeping Thing of the Earth’ Are Limited. What Would Noah Do?
Posted on November 9, 2023 by Yves Smith

Yves here. This post unwittingly illustrates how backwards our collective priorities are. It takes the premise that humanity can get by at least adequately as we continue to destroy, and specifically reduce the diversity of the biosphere. Related to that is the belief that it is possible to manage a way to less bad outcomes. Here the discussion focuses on a framework developed by Martin Weitzman on how to think about species preservation.

The problem with that line of thinking is obliquity, that in complex systems, it is not possible to know the terrain of the system well enough through it to map a good path. The most direct-seeming approach is typically not sound. As John Kay explained in the Financial Times in 2004:

If you want to go in one direction, the best route may involve going in the other. Paradoxical as it sounds, goals are more likely to be achieved when pursued indirectly. So the most profitable companies are not the most profit-oriented, and the happiest people are not those who make happiness their main aim. The name of this idea? Obliquity..

The Germans defeated the Maginot Line by going round it, while Japanese invaders bicycled through the Malayan jungle to capture Singapore, whose guns faced out to sea. Oblique approaches are most effective in difficult terrain, or where outcomes depend on interactions with other people. Obliquity is the idea that goals are often best achieved when pursued indirectly.

Obliquity is characteristic of systems that are complex, imperfectly understood, and change their nature as we engage with them…. Our objective in a complex system is not to find the optimum, because no one can know before or after whether such an optimum has been achieved. We can and should be satisfied with an outcome that is good enough….


>Obliquity is relevant whenever complex systems evolve in an uncertain environment, and whenever the effect of our actions depends on the ways in which others respond to them. There is a role for carrots and sticks, but to rely on carrots and sticks alone is effective only when we employ donkeys and when goals are simple. Directness is appropriate. When the environment is stable, objectives are one dimensional and transparent, and it is possible to determine when and whether goals have been achieved. Obliquity is inevitable when the environment is complex and changing, purposes are multiple and conflicting, and when we cannot tell, even with hindsight, whether they have been fulfilled


Kay argues here and elsewhere that the most successful approaches for dealing with complex systems are not to implement particular programs but set high level objectives and keep adapting. But those goals have the best odds of producing pretty good outcomes if they are aspirational and motivating.

Now admittedly, this critique may seem unfair, but the focus here is on “which species to save”? Is focusing on particular species the right approach?

By Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Distinguished Professor, Arthur J. Gosnell Professor of Economics, & Interim Head, Department of Sustainability, Rochester Institute of Technology. Originally published at The Conversation

The annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, better known as COP, that starts Nov. 30 in the United Arab Emirates will bring together governments, businesses, international organizations and NGOs to shine a spotlight on the climate emergency the world faces and consider solutions to the crisis. The alarming rates at which we are losing species is not just a tragedy of epic proportions – the destruction of biodiversity also robs humanity of one of its strongest defenses against climate change.

Retaining the earth’s diverse mix of animals and plants is crucial for the planet’s future, yet any plan to halt its loss must grapple with the reality that not every species can be saved from extinction because of the limited resources we have for biodiversity conservation. By one estimate, about US$598 billion to $824 billion is needed annually to reverse the loss of species worldwide.

Different Ways of Posing the Problem

Given finite research and practical resources, how should we act to conserve biological diversity? Should we, as I have argued in my research as an expert in environmental economics, try to regulate the rate at which habitat is being converted from natural to human-centered uses?

An alternative approach concentrates on conserving what biologists call keystone species that play a critical role in holding the ecosystem together. An example is the gray wolf in Yellowstone National Park, whose presence regulates prey populations like elk and deer, which in turn have cascading effects on vegetation and the overall ecosystem structure and function.

The Bible suggests a contrasting approach in the Lord’s dictum to Noah before the great flood: “Of fowls after their kind, and of cattle after their kind, of every creeping thing of the earth after his kind, two of every sort shall come unto thee, to keep them alive.”

A Solution

One of the most original and interesting answers to this question was provided by the late Harvard economist Martin Weitzman, who applied economic analysis to address the conservation of endangered species. In a pioneering 1998 paper titled The Noah’s Ark Problem, Weitzman viewed the challenge of figuring out which species to conserve with limited resources as a modern-day equivalent of the problem the biblical patriarch Noah faced when trying to determine what to take with him – and hence save – on his ark.

In Weitzman’s view, biodiversity gives rise to two kinds of values. The first is utility to humans – insects pollinate crops that yield food, and so on. There is no serious dispute that biodiversity – the variety of living species on Earth, including plants, animals, bacteria and fungi – benefits humans.

As the World Health Organization puts it, “Healthy communities rely on well-functioning ecosystems. They provide clean air, fresh water, medicines and food security. They also limit disease and stabilize the climate.” Yet nearly a third of all monitored species are currently endangered because of human activities.

The second kind identified by Weitzman is the inherent value of the wide variety of species and the genetic information they contain to biological diversity itself. Biodiversity plays a crucial role in maintaining the stability and resilience of ecosystems.

For example, increased genetic variation is important to wild Alaskan salmon returning to natal streams and rivers to reproduce. Populations in different streams have developed different sets of genetic information; some of these will allow for the earlier migration in streams that will be needed under warming temperatures and earlier snowmelt.

Weitzman likens the task of preserving different species to the task of saving the volumes in a library that represent an accumulation of human knowledge.

While in principle, every volume in the library might be valuable, some may have information that is also available in other libraries. Therefore, the objective would be to save those volumes that have information in them that is not contained anywhere else. According to this view, a conservationist’s goal ought to be to save as much of this genetic information as possible, even if the species concerned provide little direct value to humans.

This line of thinking provides counterintuitive guidance to conservationists. Specifically, it suggests that the best way to conserve biodiversity in an uncertain and resource-constrained world is to pick a species and then save as many members of this species as possible. By following this aggressive or “extreme policy,” the conservationist preserves not only what is informationally distinct about this species but also all the information it shares with other species.

An Example

To see this, imagine that there are two libraries that have many volumes (or species members), some unique to each library and some overlapping. If Library 1 burns to the ground, we lose all of the volumes (species members) with the exception of those that are also housed in Library 2. The same is true if Library 2 burns.

If both libraries burn, all is lost. If both are on fire, and we do not have the equipment to save both, and one library takes fewer resources to save, we may be better off using our scarce resources to protect that one and letting the other one go in order to preserve the unique volumes (species members) as well as the knowledge in the overlapping volumes.

What Does It Mean in Practice?

The practical meaning is that – when forced to choose – it may not make much sense to use limited conservation funds to protect a highly endangered species such as cuddly pandas that are very expensive to protect. We may be better off protecting, for example, the Atlantic menhaden, or pogy, a primary food source for bigger fish and birds along the Eastern Seaboard and a vital connection between the bottom and top of the food chain. A current lawsuit claims it is subject to overfishing in and around the Chesapeake Bay.

Weitzman’s Noah’s Ark model seeks to provide useful guidance in determining how to prioritize our efforts to save endangered species, with the presumption that biodiversity is both of value to humans and that it is inherently valuable. While we lack the resources to save every at-risk species from extinction, further delay in dealing with the climate emergency and its harmful effects on the loss of species is one thing the world cannot afford.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11 ... ah-do.html

This is an old argument with no satisfactory answer. Perhaps the wrong question, perhaps instead of focusing on individual species we should focus on habitats.Not that we should entirely abandon individual species restoration, but to what purpose if there is no habitat to return that species to? A species without it's habitat is as good as extinct as it is no longer subject to natural selection but rather to human selection, however unwittingly.The primary issue of what species and which individuals of said species thrives and reproduces in captivity is illustrative and intractable.

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Hijacking food policies to feed agribusiness
November 6, 2023

In Africa, ‘green revolution’ policies are enriching food giants, while increasing hunger and squeezing out small farmers

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Timothy A. Wise is a Senior Advisor at the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy. Mutinta Nketani is National Coordinator for the Zambian Alliance for Agroecology and Biodiversity.

by Timothy A. Wise and Mutinta Nketani

Donors, governments and business leaders had another lackluster African Green Revolution Forum (AGRF) this year from 5 to 8 September in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. There was little fanfare, few major announcements and no hint of meaningful input from small-scale farmers, the supposed beneficiaries of the erstwhile Green Revolution for Africa. Tanzanian farmers’ request for a seat at the table, in the form of a more critical side event, was denied.

Some say that if you don’t have a seat at the table, you are probably on the menu. That’s the way Zambian farmers are feeling. Zambia is one of several countries targeted for the so-called “agro-poles,” 250,000-acre blocks of land often taken from local communities to attract agribusiness investment. On the menu indeed.

“Where are the farmers?” asked Tanzanian farmer leader Juma Shabani at a sharply critical August 30 press conference organized by the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa (AFSA). “They are clearly excluded in the coming 2023 AGRF meeting in Tanzania, a country with more than 70 per cent of its population engaged in agriculture.”

At the August 30 press conference, farm leaders from Kenya, Uganda, Mali, Zimbabwe and Zambia denounced the failures of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (now simply known by its acronym, AGRA, after it withdrew the words “green revolution” from its name). And they decried the undue influence the foreign-funded organization has on African government policies.

“AGRA’s direct intervention and influence over African government policies, particularly in seeds and biosafety, have tilted the scales in favor of commercial seed providers and Green Revolution technologies,” reads the AFSA press release. “This level of interference has squeezed out alternative voices and approaches like agroecology.”

This is the third consecutive year the food sovereignty alliance and its allies have protested Green Revolution proponents’ zealous faith in their seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides. The only changes farmers have seen are cosmetic. The words “green revolution” have been removed from the forum, which is now called the African Food Systems Summit. And AGRA now stands, literally, for nothing. But Green Revolution policies were on full display at the Summit, despite their proven failures.

Hunger has grown to alarming levels across Sub-Saharan Africa. AGRA’s 13 focus countries have seen rising deprivation as the heavily promoted seeds and fertilizers fail to catalyze a productivity revolution. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and other AGRA sponsors promised in 2006 to double productivity and incomes while halving food insecurity by 2020. Instead, the number of chronically hungry has risen by 50 per cent in AGRA countries, according to the United Nations.

Summit host Tanzania has seen the number of “undernourished” jump 34 per cent since it joined AGRA. An estimated 59 per cent of Tanzanians suffer moderate or severe levels of food insecurity.

The hungry and food insecure, many of them small-scale farmers, didn’t get seats at the AGRF table, but they are on the menu as the Green Revolutionaries plan their next corporate-backed effort to displace small-scale farmers with industrialized farms.

The latest assault is being led by the African Development Bank (AfDB) under its “Feed Africa” initiative. It is supported by the Gates Foundation, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and AGRA itself, which under its self-proclaimed “AGRA 3.0” strategy is serving as the catalyst in pressing African governments to make their policies more friendly to agribusiness.

A damning donor evaluation last year acknowledged that AGRA had failed to achieve any of its objectives in improving farmer productivity and welfare. But, noted evaluators, it was often successful at changing policies. So AGRA has intensified its work to influence farm policies.

Zambia, which recently rejoined AGRA, is a particular target, and AGRA 3.0 seems willing to hijack more democratic policy efforts.

Zambia had been developing its second National Agriculture Investment Plan (NAIP II) since 2021, the basic framework for agricultural development. After much productive public consultation during the evaluation of NAIP I, Zambian advocates and farmers were surprised to be presented with a completely different investment framework written with support from FAO-sponsored consultants and the resident AGRA consultant who has been attached to the Ministry of Agriculture since 2020.

The Comprehensive Agriculture Transformation Support Programme (CATSP) was in no way based on the emerging consensus and recommendations from the NAIP I evaluation. The massive document calls for a broad set of pro-business policy reforms designed “to enable the private sector” to take over agricultural production and marketing.

The focus is on commodity value chains for a narrow set of commercial crops. Look for more maize, soybeans and wheat, not the sorts of nutritious, climate-resilient foods such as millet and sorghum. The plan expands the development of 250,000-acre “farm blocks” for industrial farms, often on land taken from local farmers and communities.

Green Mbozi, the Permanent Secretary for Technical Services in the Zambian Ministry of Agriculture, told participants at a meeting convened by the Economics Association of Zambia that “inefficient smallholder farmers will be phased out (stop producing) to pave way for large and commercial farmers to produce efficiently to lower the cost of food.” The CATSP document and its annexed Policy Implementation Instruments are being rushed through, with a “national validation” scheduled for 5 October 2023, a move seen by many grassroots organizations as unfortunate.

These are the kinds of policies that come from AGRA’s top-down approaches to policy development. The new strategy was prepared by foreign consultants with limited stakeholder consultation. Most smallholder farmers, civil society organizations and faith-based institutions were not at that table, and the few who were either were brought in by cooperating partners or were known to be Green Revolution allies. The final document reflects this exclusion, as smallholder interests are not represented.

USAID has shown its commitment to supporting the plan’s implementation once it is approved. The African Development Bank is financing such schemes across the continent, as the international NGO GRAIN documented in a recent report. Its director, former Nigerian Agriculture Minister Akinwumi Adesina, boasted that African agriculture will be “the new oil.”

Judging by the strong words at the food sovereignty alliance’s August 30 press conference, African farmers will not tolerate another extractive corporate scheme that fails to benefit the poor. They again demanded that private and bilateral donors recognize the proven failures of the Green Revolution approach and shift their support to farmer-centered ecological agriculture. Farmers working with agroecologists are getting far better results than AGRA ever did.

The simple and low-cost innovation of “green manure cover-cropping” has scientists working with some 15 million small-scale maize farmers in Africa to plant local varieties of trees and nitrogen-fixing food crops in their maize fields, tripling maize yields at no cost to the farmer.

Some Zambian farmers have shifted from failing Green Revolution approaches. Organizations such as Kasisi Agricultural Training Center stopped promoting such practices when their agronomists discovered farmers were paying higher input costs but getting little in return. Kasisi now trains farmers in organic farming, with far better results.

The Zambian Alliance for Agroecology and Biodiversity works with a wide network of local “seed savers”, trying to halt the disappearance of local varieties of food crops lost to Green Revolution subsidies and promotion. They are restoring diversity to farmers’ fields.

As Mamadou Goïta of Mali’s Institute for Research and Promotion of Alternatives in Development said at the August 30 press conference, “Farmer groups have never accepted these technological fixes. People have been working on their own food systems, to push back on what AGRA was planting.”

“Africans love agriculture, it is the backbone of our economy,” said event moderator Susan Nakacwa, of the international NGO GRAIN. “But when it comes to agricultural policies, this love is not shown back to farmers.”

It is time for donors to take small-scale farmers off the menu. Allowing foreign consultants to hijack policies developed over years by the full range of stakeholders – including farmer groups – as they have in Zambia, is an insult to Zambia’s sovereignty and democratic participation. USAID and other donors should stop putting Zambia’s farmers on the menu, threatening their lands and livelihoods.

Give them back their seat at the table. Better still, let them into the kitchen to plan their own sumptuous menu of African foods that respect local cultures, restore the land, and make farmers more resilient to climate change, not more vulnerable.

They could even decide to use a few Green Revolution ingredients. Or not. It would be their choice. That’s food sovereignty: the right to choose free of corporate pressure and foreign influence.

Reposted, with permission, from The Elephant, October 23 2023

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2023/1 ... ibusiness/

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Wed Nov 15, 2023 3:52 pm

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Aerial view of a fracking site in Colorado, United States (Photo credit: Adobe Stock/mitchbowers)

New study finds overwhelming evidence of harms from fracking
Originally published: Gas Outlook on November 10, 2023 by Nicholas Cunningham (more by Gas Outlook) (Posted Nov 15, 2023)

The negative impacts of hydraulic fracturing on public health, the environment, and the climate are “intractable and not fixable,” according to a newly published report.

Hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” is the process used by oil and gas drillers that involves injecting water, sand, and chemicals underground at extreme pressure to extract oil and gas trapped in shale rock.

Fracking, along with advances in horizontal drilling, ushered in an enormous oil and gas production boom beginning about 15 years ago, leading to the U.S. becoming the largest oil and gas producer in the world.

But the scientific literature on its impacts has grown larger with each passing year, shedding light on the vast human and environmental toll left in the industry’s wake.

The fracking boom really began to take off in Pennsylvania in the late 2000s and early 2010s. At the time, New York had a moratorium on the practice, but with shale gas production soaring in neighbouring Pennsylvania, there was growing pressure on the New York state government to lift the ban.

Sandra Steingraber, a scientist and co-founder of Concerned Health Professionals of New York, a group of health professionals and scientists concerned about fracking, began scouring the scientific literature on the drilling practice. Fracking involves the use and release of toxic chemicals and contaminants into the air and water, through multiple stages of the drilling process. That pollution finds its way to people who live nearby. In addition, vast quantities of carbon and methane pollution are released into the atmosphere.

In those early days, the science was playing catchup to a fracking boom that was already advancing at full speed. “At the time, there were really 65 studies in the peer-reviewed literature. I remember there was a time where I had them all sort of memorized,” Steingraber told Gas Outlook.

Concerned Health Professionals of New York compiled all the literature into a “fracking compendium,” as they called it. Steingraber travelled around to speak to rural New York communities who were slated to be targeted by gas companies if the state moratorium was lifted.

But in late 2014, New York announced that it was permanently banning fracking, with state officials citing “significant public health risks.”

“It was like hearing our own study read back to us,” Steingraber told Gas Outlook.

They did in fact look at a lot of the same research we did, and came to the same conclusions.

But even then, the scientific evidence on the dangers of fracking was only beginning to be understood. The evidence began as a trickle, but quickly turned into an avalanche as scientists began to study the industry.

“The second edition of the compendium had 150 studies and then it went to 400 studies for the third edition in 2014,” Steingraber said.

2014 was a year of just so many publications that I could hardly keep track anymore.

The latest version, the 9th edition, released in October, has nearly 2,500 studies showing evidence of harm from fracking. In the past decade, the science has been used by researchers, scientists and activists from all over the world. Steingraber has been in touch and worked with people in Ireland, Argentina, Mexico, South Africa, and Scotland, among other places.

Taken together, the report finds that the health, environmental, and climate impacts of fracking are so profound, that there is “no evidence that fracking can be practiced in a manner that does not threaten human health directly or without imperiling climate stability upon which human health depends.”

At a press conference on November 8, discussing the findings, Steingraber said that the problems with fracking are “intractable and are not fixable through any regulatory framework.”

Fracking resembles lead paint or indoor smoking–no rules or regulations can make these practices safe.

The latest findings
A decade ago, there was enough science to raise serious red flags about fracking. But as time has passed, the negative health impacts have become increasingly clear and the evidence unequivocal.

“Living near unconventional oil and gas development increases risks of adverse health outcomes across the lifespan, including preterm birth, reduced birth weight, birth defects, increases in asthma attacks and other respiratory diseases, various kinds of cancer, heart attacks and heart failure, and premature death, among other outcomes,” said Dr. Ted Schettler, science director with Science & Environmental Health Network, which advocates for health and environmental protections.

One 2022 study in Pennsylvania found that children living within two kilometres of a fracking well were two to three times more likely to be diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, a type of blood cancer, compared to similar children who were not living near drilling sites.

A 2020 study found that pregnant women living in close proximity to gas flaring had a 50 percent increased chance of a preterm birth.

Another March 2023 study compared older residents in northeastern Pennsylvania, a state that embraced fracking wholeheartedly, with residents across the border in New York, which had banned fracking. Between 2002 and 2008 both populations exhibited similar hospitalization trends. But after 2009, after which the fracking boom really took off, the Pennsylvania sample saw a sharp increase in heart attacks and heart failure.

“It was a really clear trend. And that’s the closest we have to a controlled human experiment,” Steingraber said.

It’s sort of a twins separated at birth kind of study.

She added that the literature is so solid at this point, that there is no reason for governments not to act.

“Compared to other public health data I’ve looked at, it’s astonishing actually,” Steingraber said.

As is the case with any public health issue, finding causation within a long list of potentially confounding variables is difficult. “It’s messy. And yet, we have to make public health decisions based on messy data,” she said.

She pointed to the issue of second-hand smoke. “At one point there were 30 studies in the peer-reviewed literature, of which nine showed an increase in lung cancer in people who were exposed to second-hand smoke,” Steingraber said.

And it was on that basis that we banned smoking inside work places and other public places.

“We now have 120 studies showing harm to health from fracking. Almost every study that’s ever looked at health harms related to fracking has found them,” she said.

The only difference is that you can easily ask individual people to stop smoking where they work. It’s much harder politically to ask the whole oil and gas industry to go away.

Methane worse than previously thought
The health harms of fracking are becoming increasingly understood by the public, and some opinion polls show that fracking is unpopular, even in Pennsylvania.

However, one narrative that has still not sunk in with the public, or with government officials and investors, is the impact on the climate. Gas and LNG are often positioned by the industry as climate solutions because of the perceived lower greenhouse gas footprint when compared to coal. But research continues to show that, after accounting for methane, gas is no better than coal. Indeed, it is likely worse.

Robert Howarth, a biogeochemist and ecosystem scientist at Cornell University in New York, has studied shale gas for more than a decade, and his research has focused on the methane emissions from the gas industry. Howarth coauthored a 2011 peer-reviewed paper that found that after the leaky methane was accounted for, shale gas was actually worse for the climate than coal.

Those findings were largely dismissed by the industry and gas-friendly politicians at both the state and federal level. But his findings have held up.

“In the 12 years since our paper, there have now been more than 1,800 papers published in the peer reviewed literature on this topic alone,” Howarth said at the fracking compendium press conference.

And the overwhelming conclusion from these is that methane emissions are in fact real and they’re significant.

He said methane leaks are “baked into the basic framework” by which shale gas is developed and processed.

There are leaks for sure, some of it’s accidental–it’s hard to prevent leaks. But a lot of them are purposeful emissions that are just inherent in the safety and maintenance operations of the industry.

His latest research focuses on LNG. Howarth recently submitted a paper for peer review that finds that LNG is dramatically worse for the climate than coal. LNG has all of the same problems that shale gas has with leaky methane, but LNG also has extra climate penalties–in order to make one unit of LNG, roughly 10 percent of the energy is burned in the liquefaction process. In addition, Howarth estimates that some LNG ships lose as much as 20 percent of their cargo because the LNG is used for fuel, is evaporated off, or otherwise escapes into the atmosphere.

“The bottom line is that the science is quite clear: liquefied natural gas is a terrible idea from a climate standpoint,” Howarth said.

I think LNG has no place in the world given this need we should be building no new LNG infrastructure whatsoever.

He pointed to the narrative that has taken hold in the U.S. and Europe that LNG is needed to replace lost Russian gas after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“I would contend that for a short term and an emergency basis, Europeans are better off reopening some of their shuttered coal plants than to build out this LNG infrastructure, which has a 40 to 50 year time period and in fact is worse for the climate than coal,” Howarth said.

Many European countries have embraced LNG, and the Biden administration has also encouraged more gas exports. Along the U.S. Gulf Coast, there is a building spree underway for LNG export terminals.

But once in place, that infrastructure may operate through the middle of the century–at least, that is what LNG operators and their investors intend.

“It just locks in fracking for decades to come at a time when we’re supposed to be winding things down,” Steingraber said.

https://mronline.org/2023/11/15/new-stu ... -fracking/
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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Fri Nov 17, 2023 3:14 pm

Greenhouse Gas concentrations hit record high. Again.
November 16, 2023

The last time the Earth experienced CO2 levels this high was 3-5 million years ago

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The abundance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere once again reached a new record last year and there is no end in sight to the rising trend, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Global averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important greenhouse gas, in 2022 were a full 50% above the pre-industrial era for the first time. They continued to grow in 2023.

The rate of growth in CO2 concentrations was slightly lower than the previous year and the average for the decade, according to WMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. But this was most likely due to natural, short-term variations in the carbon cycle. New emissions as a result of industrial activities continued to rise.

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Methane concentrations also grew, and levels of nitrous oxide, the third main gas, saw the highest year-on-year increase on record from 2021 to 2022, according to the Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, which is published to inform the United Nations Climate Change negotiations, or COP28, in Dubai.

“Despite decades of warnings from the scientific community, thousands of pages of reports and dozens of climate conferences, we are still heading in the wrong direction,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

“The current level of greenhouse gas concentrations puts us on the pathway of an increase in temperatures well above the Paris Agreement targets by the end of this century. This will be accompanied by more extreme weather, including intense heat and rainfall, ice melt, sea-level rise and ocean heat and acidification. The socioeconomic and environmental costs will soar.. We must reduce the consumption of fossil fuels as a matter of urgency.,” said Prof. Taalas.

Just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere. Just over one quarter are absorbed by the ocean and just under 30% by land ecosystems like forests – although there is considerable year-to-year variability in this. As long as emissions continue, CO2 will continue accumulating in the atmosphere leading to global temperature rise. Given the long life of CO2, the temperature level already observed will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.

The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now.

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The Annual Greenhouse Gas Index, published by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shows that from 1990 to 2022, the warming effect on our climate – called radiative forcing – by long-lived greenhouse gases, increased by 49%, with CO2 accounting for about 78% of this increase.

Carbon dioxide is the single most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, accounting for approximately 64% of the warming effect on the climate, mainly because of fossil fuel combustion and cement production.

The 2.2 parts per million (ppm) increase in the annual average from 2021 to 2022 was slightly smaller than 2020 to 2021 and for the past decade (2.46 ppm yr). The most likely reason is increased absorption of atmospheric CO2 by terrestrial ecosystems and the ocean after several years with a La Niña event. The development of an El Niño event in 2023 may therefore have consequences for greenhouse gas concentrations.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas which remains in the atmosphere for about a decade, accounting for about 19% of the warming effect of long-lived greenhouse gases. Approximately 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources (for example, wetlands and termites), and about 60% comes from anthropogenic sources (for example, ruminants, rice agriculture, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning).

The increase from 2021 to 2022 was slightly lower than the record rate observed from 2020 to 2021 but considerably higher than the average annual growth rate over the last decade.

Nitrous Oxide is both a powerful greenhouse gas and ozone depleting chemical. It accounts for about 7% of the radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases.

N2O is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural sources (approximately 60%) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 40%), including oceans, soils, biomass burning, fertilizer use, and various industrial processes. For N2O, the increase from 2021 to 2022 was higher than that observed any time before in our modern time record.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2023/1 ... igh-again/

The scariest climate graph of all
November 15, 2023

The actions we take now will determine Earth’s climate for 5,000 generations


THE SCARIEST CLIMATE PLOT IN THE WORLD

by Andrew Dessler

When I give talks about climate change, I start with one particular plot that encapsulates the gravity of our current climate trajectory more starkly than any other I’ve found. I call it the scariest plot in the world:

Image
adapted from Clark et al., Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nature Climate Change, 6, 2016, doi:10.1038/nclimate2923

To understand why this plot is so scary, let’s go over what it tells us about past and future climate change.

A journey through 30,000 years

The plot shows the evolution of the climate, starting 20,000 years ago and ending 10,000 years in the future:

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The plot begins in the depths of the last ice age, generally referred to in the climate biz as the Last Glacial Maximum. Temperatures then warmed until the ice age ended 10,000 years ago. This is the beginning of the Holocene, the warm and pleasant interglacial period we are now experiencing, characterized by a warm and stable climate that has allowed human civilization to flourish.

The fossil fuel era: A brief spark that causes lasting burns

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The trajectory of our climate takes an abrupt detour starting around 250 years ago, coinciding with the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. This is the fossil fuel era — the pink band on the plot. In the grand tapestry of human history, the fossil fuel era will be a brief spark, spanning just a few centuries, yet the repercussions of this period are immense. During the few centuries that we’re burning fossil fuels, we are projected to warm the climate around 3°C given current climate policies.

When the era of fossil fuels eventually ends, whether due to depletion or a concerted shift to sustainable energy sources, the climate will not quickly revert to its pre-industrial state. Rather, the consequences of our brief but intense carbon outburst will linger, with temperatures elevated for 100,000 years.

This is one of the most troubling aspects of climate change: The decisions we make in the next few decades will determine the climate for the next 5,000 generations. If we choose unwisely, people in the future will justifiably be furious with us because we know what we’re doing but we’re doing it anyway.

3°C is bad news

If you think 3°C of warming sounds inconsequential, you’re wrong. Your opinion is based on your personal experience with local temperatures, which do indeed vary a lot. But the global average temperature is very stable, so a 3°C shift is monumental.

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We can see evidence for this in the plot above. The last ice age, with colossal ice sheets covering large parts of the Northern Hemisphere continents and sea level 300 feet lower than today, was about 5°C cooler than today. Thus, warming of 3°C is 60% of the temperature change that transitioned us from an ice age into an interglacial. 3°C will literally reformat the surface of the Earth.

Already feeling the heat

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We’ve already seen a global average rise of about 1.2°C, and the impacts are tangible:

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And given the non-linear nature of climate impacts, the next increment of warming will be a lot worse than the last one.

But don’t despair, our future is not yet set in stone. We still largely control the fate of our climate. But not for long. If we want to avoid the clear disaster that 3°C of global-average warming represents, we need to address the problem now.

The good news is that we don’t need a magical solution. The challenge of climate change is not rooted in science or technology. We know how to solve this. Rather, it’s a political issue. What we lack is a collective decision to confront and manage this risk. Fortunately, this is something we can solve at the ballot box.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2023/1 ... ph-of-all/

"solve at the ballot box[" Naive at best...as long as it's capitalism there is no hope.

Promised emission cuts are ‘severely off track’
November 14, 2023

National plans propose baby steps, when bold strides are needed

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A new report from UN Climate Change finds national climate action plans remain insufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Even with increased efforts by some countries, the report shows much more action is needed now to bend the world’s emissions trajectory further downward and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

“Today’s report shows that governments combined are taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis. And it shows why governments must make bold strides forward at COP28 in Dubai, to get on track,” said the Executive-Secretary of UN Climate Change, Simon Stiell. “This means COP28 must be a clear turning point. Governments must not only agree what stronger climate actions will be taken but also start showing exactly how to deliver them.”

Stiell stressed that the conclusion of the first global stocktake at COP28 is where nations can regain momentum to scale up their efforts across all areas and get on track with meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. The stocktake is intended to inform the next round of climate action plans under the Paris Agreement (known as nationally determined contributions, or ‘NDCs’) to be put forward by 2025, paving the way for accelerated action.

“The Global Stocktake report released by UN Climate Change this year clearly shows where progress is too slow. But it also lays out the vast array of tools and solutions put forward by countries. Billions of people expect to see their governments pick up this toolbox and put it to work,” Stiell said.

The latest science from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. This is critical to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall. “Every fraction of a degree matters, but we are severely off track. COP28 is our time to change that.”

UN Climate Change analyzed the NDCs of 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including 20 new or updated NDCs submitted up until 25 September 2023. In line with the findings from last year’s analysis, today’s report shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, compared to 2019 levels, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade.

If the latest available NDCs are implemented, current commitments will increase emissions by about 8.8%, compared to 2010 levels. This is a marginal improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

By 2030 emissions are projected to be 2% below 2019 levels, highlighting that peaking of global emissions will occur within this decade.

“Today’s synthesis report of national climate plans underscores the need for us to act with greater ambition and urgency to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement – there is simply no time left for delays,” said Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President Designate.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2023/1 ... off-track/

********

Has the Energy Transition Hit a Wall?
Posted on November 17, 2023 by Yves Smith

Yves here. We’ve featured many posts and links on the raw materials demands of the hoped-for uptake of green energy, how some critical ones appear to be in inadequate supply, and how in most cases mining and refining them also has significant environmental costs. So we are now seeing the predictable result of an unplanned transition: price is becoming a rationing device.

By Irina Slav, a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry. Originally published at OilPrice

*Wind and solar stocks are declining due to higher costs of raw materials and slow supply response.
*EV chargers and copper mining, critical for the energy transition, face demand uncertainties and reluctance in investment.
*Despite government subsidies, renewable energy sectors struggle with high costs and interest rates, indicating a slower and more expensive transition than anticipated.

Wind power stocks are tanking. So are solar power stocks. Germany’s government just agreed to underwrite a 15-billion-euro bailout for Siemens Energy after its wind power subsidiary booked massive losses.

The list could continue. The movers and shakers in the energy space are finding it increasingly hard to move and shake. It was easy to anticipate this development, yet, many choose to ignore the signs, and now the sector may suffer more before the growing pains ease.

One common theme in the wind, solar, and EV space is the theme of rising costs. This was perhaps the easiest development to anticipate in the progress of the energy transition. After all, everyone was forecasting a massive surge in the demand for various raw materials and technology to enable that transition.

There is one guaranteed thing that happens when demand for something rises: prices also rise before the supply response kicks in. This is a universal truth for all industries and there was no reason to expect that the transition industry would be an exception.

Indeed, demand for raw materials necessary for solar panels, wind turbines, and EV batteries rose, but supply was slow to catch up, which led to higher prices. For a while, many pretended this was not the case, possibly hoping the cost inflation would blow over before investors noticed it.

Denmark’s Orsted, which suffered some of the worst market cap losses in the transition space, just this June published an upbeat outlook for the year and the medium term, expecting strong capacity additions growth and a return on capital employed rate of an average 14% for the period 2023 to 2030.

The same month the head of the company complained loudly about the rising costs of building offshore wind in Britain and asked for more subsidies. Five months later, Orsted had booked $4 billion in impairment charges from its U.S. business and had canceled two offshore projects there. CEO Mads Nipper called the situation in wind power “a perfect storm”.

Many have blamed the higher costs on the legacy of the pandemic lockdowns—broken supply chains, delays, and other obstacles to the smooth movement of goods and materials. Yet when it comes to the transition, the current state of affairs is more likely part of the same vicious circle that is holding back the EV revolution that fans of Tesla keep predicting.

This circle is best illustrated in the case of EV chargers. Since range anxiety is one of the biggest concerns of prospective buyers, there must be enough chargers for this anxiety to subside. But charger companies wouldn’t build chargers unless they are certain there will be enough EVs on the roads to make these chargers profitable.

The situation is similar in copper mining—perhaps the most fundamental industry for the energy transition. After all, the transition is conceived of as a shift to almost full electrification and you cannot have electrification without a lot of copper. Instead, copper miners are reluctant to splurge on new exploration. Miners don’t have enough certainty about future demand, despite all the upbeat forecasts. Whatever market prices show, if the transition gains momentum as planned, the copper shortage will only be a matter of time.

Another obstacle is demand. There seemed to be an assumption among transition planners that demand would be given; but it hasn’t been.

EV makers now find themselves revising their plans as demand falls short of targets. In June, forecasts for Germany were that demand for solar installations would surge by double digits in 2023. Two months later, an inverter maker warned that demand had actually dropped in the third quarter, and the outlook for Q4 was not particularly encouraging. In wind, projects are being canceled because project leaders are asking for much higher prices than previously agreed with funding governments.

Many are blaming higher interest rates for the cost inflation that sank their shares. But interest rates are something that all industries have to deal with, and those other industries don’t have the privilege of counting on generous government subsidies. Yet wind, solar, and EVs can’t take off even with those subsidies.

This puts the future of the transition in a new perspective: something that many observers foresaw but were dismissed as climate deniers. The transition will be neither as fast nor as smooth—or as cheap—as initially expected. It will take a long time; it will be uneven, and it will be expensive.

“There’s this notion that it is going to be a linear energy transition,” Daniel Yergin, S&P Global vice chairman and a veteran energy chronicler, told the Wall Street Journal. “It’s going to unfold in different ways in different parts of the world."

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11 ... -wall.html

Seems like the real problem is capitalism, putting potential profit or loss before human need.
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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Sat Nov 25, 2023 4:32 pm

CAPITALISM NOT SLOWING DOWN THE RUSH TO CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS
Posted by MLToday | Nov 20, 2023 | Other Featured Posts | 0

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November 13, 2023, The Guardian (Australia)

A tipping point is a moment when things change so much there’s no going back. Climate tipping points are the critical thresholds at which a tiny perturbation can seriously change our global climate and environmental systems. Reaching a tipping point will cause a dramatic impact on the climatic and environmental systems that we rely on for our daily lives and for societies to function. Crossing these points cannot be counteracted by more action. Shifts in the earth’s environmental system, such as global sea-level rise, will have devastating irreversible changes.

Numerous scientific papers and reports conclude that climate tipping points are fast approaching. A study by Daniel Zarrilli, Special Advisor for Climate and Sustainability at Columbia University, finds that once the earth comes close to a climatic tipping point, some changes in the climate will be irreversible. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current regulates our climate. If it shuts down it will have “massive social and economic consequences.”

In 2008, the first major assessment of climatic changes identified nine tipping points, involving polar ice sheets, oceanic currents and the major rain forests around the world. In 2021 Katharyn Duffy of Northern Arizona University mapped the relationship between increasing temperatures and carbon uptake in the Amazon’s forests. Her team examined twenty years of data on the transfer of carbon dioxide between plants, land and the atmosphere. At higher temperatures, the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by plants through photosynthesis declines sharply, whilst the carbon dioxide released continues to rise, producing far more CO2 in the atmosphere. The thermal maximum for photosynthesis was exceeded in recent hot periods.

In 2022 the World Economic Forum examined the results of more than 200 studies from the past fifteen years, concluding that there are five tipping points of serious concern. With global warming now at 1.2°C, four of these five will be reached if global warming exceeds 1.5°C. Every fraction of a degree makes this outcome more likely, but not yet inevitable. Current levels of greenhouse gas emissions risk triggering climate tipping points.

Since the 18th century, humans have increased atmospheric methane concentrations by over 150 percent and carbon dioxide by over 50 per cent. A report by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 2016 concluded that carbon dioxide causes three quarters of all global warming and will take thousands of years to be fully absorbed by the carbon cycle.

Australian climate scientist Will Steffen and his colleagues have said in 2022 that there are “ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe.” David Armstrong McKay of Stockholm University has shown that global warming of 1 degree Celsius would risk triggering six tipping points. A major tipping point is the Greenland Ice Sheet, with Greenland and Antarctica losing ice six times faster than 30 years ago. The melting of those ice sheets is the largest contributor to sea-level rise.

Other tipping points include West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, the ocean circulation in the polar region of the North Atlantic, coral reef die-off in the low latitudes, the sudden thawing of permafrost in the northern regions, and abrupt sea ice loss in the Barents Sea.

The OECD report “Climate Tipping Points: Insights for Effective Policy Action” concludes that to stop reaching these tipping-points, we must drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions through enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are at the heart of the Paris Agreement.

Following the Agreement will accelerate transformations towards carbon net-zero and enable countries to adapt to the impact of climatic changes. Given the potential for the catastrophic impact associated with our changing climate system’s tipping points, not implementing the strategies of the Agreement could lead to immeasurable economic and environmental collapse in the near future.

The earth’s tipping points are interlinked, producing cascading impacts of serious concern. For example, the extinction of a strongly connected species in a given ecosystem can trigger cascading extinctions, leading to an ecosystem’s collapse. Jared Diamond argues in Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed that the removal of the forest cover of Easter Island (Rapa Nui) led to the collapse of its ecosystem with a devastating impact on its human population. All environmental systems are interconnected. If one system fails, it places added pressure on other systems to collapse.

These findings are confirmed by the “Interconnected Disasters Report 2023” published by the United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, which analyzed six interconnected tipping points, representing immediate and increasing risks across the world. The surpassing of these thresholds will have dire consequences for humans, animals and the environment.

We are now moving close to the brink of multiple risk tipping points. Urgent action is needed to avoid crossing these tipping points and to prepare for the coming consequences. Fundamental changes are required to save our planet, the only planet known to have life, from a potential catastrophe.

We need serious action on climate change now. Capitalism is not delivering that serious action.

https://mltoday.com/capitalism-not-slow ... ng-points/

************

If capitalism is ‘natural,’ why was so much force used to build it?
November 23, 2023

How peasants fought to protect common land and resisted wage labor

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Across England and Scotland, millions were expelled from their homes and land to make room for large capitalist farms.

Many thanks to Pete Dolack, who blogs at Systemic Disorder, for permission to republish his generous review of my book, The War Against the Commons.

Ian Angus
THE WAR AGAINST THE COMMONS
Dispossession and Resistance in the Making of Capitalism
Monthly Review Press, 2023


reviewed by Pete Dolack

If capitalism is such a natural outcome of human nature, why were systematic violence and draconian laws necessary to establish it? And if greed is the primary motivation for human beings, how could the vast majority of human existence have been in hunter-gatherer societies in which cooperation was the most valuable behavior?

Cheerleaders for capitalism — who generate endless arguments that greed is not only good but the dominant human motivation — tend to not dwell on the origination of the system, either implying it has always been with us or that it is the “natural” result of development. Critics of capitalism, interestingly, seem much more interested in the system’s origins than are its boosters. Perhaps the bloody history of how capitalism slowly supplanted feudalism in northwest Europe, and then spread through slavery, conquest, colonialism and routine inflictions of brute force makes for a less than appealing picture. It is not for nothing that Marx wrote, “If money … ‘comes into the world with a congenital blood-stain on one cheek,’ capital comes dripping from head to foot, from every pore, with blood and dirt.”

A correlation of this violence applied by the elites of those times and the governments that, then as now, served their society’s elites, was that peasants and the earliest wage workers must have resisted. Indeed they did. There is a long history of resistance to capitalist offensives, and although movements, those organized and the many more that were spontaneous, were not able to bring about a more humane and equitable world, these are histories well worth knowing. A new book from Monthly Review Press, The War Against the Commons, Dispossession and Resistance in the Making of Capitalism, by Ian Angus, brings much of this history to vivid life.

Concentrating on the birthplace of capitalism, England, Mr. Angus is forthright about the violent details as they unfolded from the 15th century through to the Industrial Revolution, “focus[ing] on the first and most complete case, the centuries-long war against the agricultural commons, known as the enclosure in England and the clearances in Scotland.” At the dawn of capitalism (most commonly seen as arising in the 16th century although not firmly established until later), England and Scotland were overwhelmingly populated by farmers, much as the rest of the world. Although there was wage work, very few were dependent on it and only under capitalism did mass reliance on wage work occur.

Thus forced removal from the land, elimination of access to common lands and putting an end to the ability to live without working for others was essential for capitalism to develop, and that is the topic of War Against the Commons. In his introduction, Mr. Angus puts this forth in characteristically clear, unambiguous language:

“For wage labor to triumph, there had to be large numbers of people for whom self-provisioning was no longer an option. The transition, which began in England in the 1400s, involved the elimination not only of shared use of land, but of the common rights that allowed even the poorest people access to essential means of subsistence. The right to hunt or fish for food, to gather wood and edible plants, to glean leftover grain in the fields after harvest, to pasture a cow or two on undeveloped land — those and more common rights were erased, replaced by the exclusive right of property owners to use Earth’s wealth.”

Capitalism has only existed for a few centuries, while humans have roamed the Earth for hundreds of thousands of years. This of course is not an argument that we should go back to a hunter-gatherer existence — quite impossible given the size of the human population even if it were desirable — but simply an acknowledgment that capitalism is not “natural”; it has existed for a blink of an eye in human history.

Flipping the tragedy of the commons onto its feet

Naturally, Mr. Angus has to first clear out well-propagated misconceptions. He first shoots down the “tragedy of the commons,” a much-traveled piece of neoliberal nonsense. The originator of the concept of the “tragedy of the commons,” an ideological argument for privatization of everything, is a biology professor whose textbook argued for “control of breeding” for “genetically defective” people. Mr. Angus notes this professor “had no training in or particular knowledge of social or agricultural history” when writing his article, published in 1968. But the “thesis” was politically useful, being used to justify stealing the land of Indigenous peoples, privatizing health care and social services, and much else. What the “tragedy of the commons” “thesis” asserts is that land held and used in common will inevitably be overused and destroyed because everybody will want to use more of the common resource, such as introducing more animals on a pasture, until “common ruin” is the result.

The War Against the Commons points out that no evidence was presented in this article; its thesis was simply asserted. But commons-based agriculture lasted for centuries; this success on its own disproves the thesis. Those who have actually studied how commons were used and provide actual evidence for their works demonstrate that peasants had sophisticated systems for managing commons and regulating animals.

In the early 16th century, 80 percent of English farmers grew for themselves while only the remaining 20 percent sent some of their production to markets but few of these employed labor. Differentiations were beginning to be seen, however, as complaints about enclosures began to be heard in the 1480s and the process accelerated in the 1500s. King Henry VIII’s adviser condemned enclosures, Mr. Angus writes, and a series of laws against the practice were passed, none with any effect. (The king would not seem to have taken any such advice; tens of thousands were hung during his reign as “vagabonds” or “thieves” during a time of repeated peasant uprisings.)

Mr. Angus argues that the failure of Tudor anti-enclosure legislation was due to their targeting consequences rather than causes and that judicators were local gentry who consistently sided with their colleagues. Regardless, Henry VIII conducted a massive confiscation of church lands and then sold most of it to lords, needing to raise revenue for his wars. The consolidation of large farms means there would be space for fewer small farms. Opposition to private ownership of land and greed in 16th century England was often religious, but Protestant preachers would condemn greed in one breath and in the next condemn all rebellion.

Rebellion there was, nonetheless. The dispossessed fought wage labor, which was commonly seen as “little better than slavery” and the “last resort” when all other options had been precluded. In the late 15th and into the 16th centuries, most enclosures were physical evictions, often entire villages; after 1550, landlords often negotiated with their largest tenant farmers, by now inserted into capitalist markets, to divide the commons and undeveloped lands between them. The landless and smallholders got nothing; the number of agricultural laborers with no land quadrupled from 1560 to 1620. Economic pressures were supplemented by state coercion to force the dispossessed into wage labor. A series of brutal measures were passed into law. Although there were not enough jobs for those forced into wage work, those without unemployment were classified as “vagrants” and “vagabonds” and subject to draconian punishments.

A 1547 law, for example, ordered any “vagrant” who refused an offer of work to be branded with a red-hot iron and be “literally enslaved for two years.” The new slave was subject to having iron rings put around their neck and legs and to suffer beatings. A 1563 law mandated that any man or woman up to the age of 60 could be compelled to work on any farm that would hire them, anyone who offered or accepted wages higher than those set by local employers acting as judges could be thrown in jail, and written permission was needed to leave a job on pain of whipping and imprisonment. Other laws mandated “whippings through the streets until bloody” with repeat offenders put to death. Many of those convicted were increasingly sent to the colonies as indentured servants, completely at the mercy of their New World masters.

Such were the tender mercies shown by nascent capitalists and the state increasingly oriented toward capitalists’ interests.

Might makes right as a foundation

With the simultaneous rise of the coal and textile industries, workers were needed — the draconian laws were the route to forcing people into jobs with low pay, long hours and sometimes dangerous conditions. Coal mining itself triggered more enclosures in the 16th century. Some landlords found that coal mining was more profitable for them than renting farmland, requiring dispossession of tenants, and remaining smallholders could be robbed of their land because they were prohibited from refusing access to minerals under their land. Early manifestations of current-day “property rights” where if you are big enough, might makes right.

Although much resistance consisted of spontaneous uprisings, there were organized campaigns. Two movements were the Diggers and the Levellers. The Levellers’ moniker comes from their “leveling” the hedges and stone fences landlords used to demarcate the lands they had enclosed; these organized groups repeatedly removed these demarcations. The Diggers were a collective movement founded by Gerrard Winstanley that sought to put theory into better practice. The Diggers created communes on common land, first on a hill near London. All members would receive a share of the produce in exchange for helping work the land.

Winstanley produced a program that criticized the inhumanity of the wealthy and stated that the road to freedom was through common ownership of the land. Wage labor, private ownership of land, and buying and selling land were all prohibited in Digger communities. Everyone was to contribute to the common stock and take only what was necessary; any penalties for free riders were designed to rehabilitate rather than punish. Winstanley and the Diggers saw private ownership of land as the cause of poverty and exploitation, and one of their demands was that all land should be given to those who would work it, including land confiscated from the church. They, after all, were living through the early days of agricultural capitalism with so many around them experiencing poverty and exploitation.

Remarkably, Winstanley’s concept, devised two centuries before Marx’s concept of communism as “from each according to their ability, to each according to their needs,” bore significant resemblances to the latter’s ideas, although Marx could not have known of Winstanley as the Diggers’ ideas were ruthlessly stamped out and were only re-discovered late in the 19th century. State-directed violence against Digger communes was not long in coming. Landlords were determined to eliminate the Diggers. Local magistrates, themselves landowners, indicted Diggers for trespass and unlawful assembly, and imposed fines too large to pay; mobs organized by landowners destroyed crops and homes until the communes had to be abandoned.

By the latter half of the 17th century, “large landowners and merchants won decisive control of the English state,” Mr. Angus writes. “In the 1700s, they would use that power to continue the dispossession of commoners and consolidate their absolute ownership of the land.” And as the Industrial Revolution began to develop, new rounds of enclosures were initiated, this time through laws enacted by Parliament, to strip people of their remaining abilities to be self-sufficient and not be forced into wage work with low pay and long hours of drudgery.

A class state promotes class interests

From the so-called “Glorious Revolution” of 1689 to the 1832 Great Reform Act, Britain was controlled by agrarian magnates and merchant capitalists; the state existed to benefit the wealthy. The author writes:

“The very rich ruled Parliament through their unchallenged domination of the House of Lords, their effective control of the executive, and their strong influence on the slightly less-rich members of the House of Commons. The lower House was elected, but only about 3 percent of the population (all male) could vote, and high property qualifications ensured that only the wealthy could be candidates. In E.P. Thompson’s words, ‘The British state, all eighteenth-century legislators agreed, existed to preserve the property and, incidentally, the lives and liberties, of the propertied.’ ”

More than 4,000 enclosure acts were passed by Parliament from 1730 to 1840, laws that affected a quarter of all cultivated land. Laws were heavily skewed in favor of big estates and the aristocracy. Peasants resisted, but had too much force arrayed against them. The displaced, unless they emigrated, became wage workers in the new factories. Development in England had been built on slavery, with the huge profits from slave-grown agricultural products and the slave trade itself providing capital for industrial takeoff. And many of the big estate owners were in a position to buy up land because of the profits they directly accrued from slave labor. Abolishing the slave trade was simply another move of economic beneficiary. Mr. Angus writes:

“Defenders of British imperialism like to brag that Britain outlawed the slave trade in 1807, but that’s like praising a serial killer because he eventually retired. The ban came after centuries in which British investors had grown rich as human traffickers, and it did nothing for the 700,000 Africans who remained enslaved in Britain’s Caribbean colonies. Britain’s vaunted humanitarianism is belied by the British army’s slaughter of rebellious slaves in Guyana — seventeen years after the slave trade was declared illegal.”

British parliamentarians, carrying out their class interests, were no less inclined to draconian legislation than had been their predecessors. From 1703 to 1830, 45 statutes were passed relating to banning all but elite landowners from hunting; these laws should be seen in the context of their time when small farmers and the landless needed to hunt to ensure they and their families had enough food to survive. The Black Act of 1723 saw 350 offenses made eligible for the death penalty; already, hanging, whipping and expulsion to Australia for hard labor were on the books for minor offenses. Even cutting down a tree could result in hanging.

That such draconian laws were repeatedly passed over long periods of time demonstrate that capitalism is not “natural” and indeed could only be imposed by force, The War Against the Commons persuasively demonstrates. This is a book that is most useful for those already acquainted with this bloody history and wish to obtain more knowledge, including of the still largely unknown Winstanley and the Diggers movement, but also for those without this knowledge who wish to learn about the history of capitalism. The author writes in clear, understandable language without jargon, producing a work that requires no prior knowledge yet is useful for those who do have familiarity with the subject. Anyone who is interested in understanding the dynamics of capitalism, and cares to approach the subject with an open mind, will benefit.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2023/1 ... -build-it/

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The Environmental Impact of Housing and Heating
Posted on November 25, 2023 by Yves Smith

Yves here. A rare bit of cheery climate change news. Housing is an understudied and not surprisingly not-trivial contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. It turns out there’s low hanging fruit in terms of pretty easy fixes to existing stocks.

By Maxim Chupilkin, Associate Economist at the Office of the Chief Economist European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); Zsoka Koczan, Lead Economist European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); and Ireko Zamilov, PhD candidate in Finance London Business School. Originally published at VoxEU

Housing is a major component of energy consumption, yet residential emissions have typically received less policy attention than emissions from industry or transportation. This column combines the results of a household survey administered across a large sample of emerging markets with cross-country data on residential emissions. It shows how relatively low-cost, technologically straightforward improvements, such as installing (smart) meters and double-glazed windows, can help significantly reduce residential emissions, even taking the existing housing stock as given.


Housing and the associated heating, water and sewerage infrastructure carry a substantial environmental footprint. Yet, they tend to receive much less attention than energy use and associated emissions in industry and transportation. Moreover, these housing services currently occupy a sizable portion of households’ disposable income as demonstrated in the results of the fourth wave of the Life in Transition Survey (a household survey administered across a large sample of emerging markets in Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia and North Africa) which showed that respondents in these economies spend an average of 22% of their household income on utilities, up from 17% in 2016. This is significantly more than in Germany, and the figures for poorer households are higher still.

The residential sector accounts, on average, for 26% of total emissions and 29% of total energy use in these emerging markets, compared with 22% of total emissions and 26% of total energy use in advanced European comparators (Figure 1). In some economies, the residential sector is the single largest contributor to total emissions, surpassing industry, transport and other services. This is the case, for instance, in Azerbaijan, Kosovo, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova and Serbia.

In some cases, such as in economies in central Europe, residential emissions remain high even as industry is becoming greener—partly reflecting the upgrading of technology and decarbonisation policies focused on the manufacturing sector. In contrast, economies in eastern Europe and the Caucasus have industrial sectors which pollute more than their residential sectors. In some economies (particularly Kazakhstan and the Western Balkans), industrial and residential emissions are both high.

Figure 1 Residential sector energy use in emerging markets
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Source: IEA and authors’ calculations.

Note: The data in this chart are estimates based on IEA surveys of statistical agencies and relate to 2021 or the latest available year. Residential energy use and emissions are broken down into “appliances” and “heating”. “Appliances” includes cooking, cooling and lighting; “heating” refers to all heating, including hot water (such as gas boilers). Data represent population weighted averages based on 27 emerging markets and 15 advanced European economies.
Energy Use Versus Emissions

Differences in residential energy use explain only 22% of total cross-country variation in residential emissions per capita. For instance, residential emissions per capita in Kazakhstan are around 2.5 times the level seen in Estonia, despite Kazakhstan’s residential sector using only 4% more energy per capita. Similarly, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Poland and Serbia emit about twice as much as Slovenia and the Slovak Republic while using similar amounts of energy.

Motivated by this, the following regression analysis looks at the role of various factors and their relative importance in explaining differences in residential emissions per capita (see Chupilkin et al. 2023). The left-hand panel in Figure 2 focuses on key variables available for a larger sample of countries; the right-hand panel presents more detailed analysis based on a small sample of 20 economies, using information on building characteristics and metering derived from the Life in Transition Survey. This survey included a new module on housing, where respondents were asked, for instance, if their windows were double-glazed or if their heating and water were metered, using smart or regular meters.

Economies with high emissions for a given level of energy use tend to be more dependent on coal for their energy. In contrast, economies where renewables account for a large proportion of energy generation (such as Albania, which gets almost all of its energy from hydroelectric power, or Lithuania, where wind and solar power play a significant role) have relatively low emissions for the same level of energy use. On average, differences in the prevalence of various fossil fuels in countries’ fuel mixes can explain around 25% of total cross-country variation in heating-related emissions per capita, and over 40% for emissions caused by the operation of domestic appliances (such as refrigerators and air conditioning units). Higher income per capita and larger dwellings per capita significantly increase demand for heating, accounting for close to 20% of total variation in emissions. Likewise, colder and longer winters can also explain some of the cross-country variation in heating-related emissions (see also Cascarano and Natoli 2023 and Levinson 2013 on the effects of climate on energy demand and housing preferences).

Incentives to use energy efficiently, captured here as the use of metering and fossil fuel energy subsidies, explain 5% of total variation in heating-related emissions and 15% of emissions from appliances (see also Davis and Boomhower 2019, Fabrizio et al. 2013, Puller et al. 2022 and Tawk et al. 2022 on the importance of incentives for energy efficiency). Across countries, a doubling of fossil fuel subsidies (as a percentage of GDP) is associated with a 40% increase in heating-related emissions per capita. Smart meters that record consumption at a high frequency, can help residents to save costs by providing them with real-time information about energy use and by automatically sending meter readings to the energy supplier.

Older buildings are, on average, associated with much more emissions from heating. Building age and the percentage of buildings with double-glazed windows explain around a third of total variation in emissions from heating and a tenth of total variation in emissions from appliances.

Figure 2 Cross-country variation in residential emissions
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Source: IEA, Life in Transition Survey IV and authors’ calculations.

Note: Data relate to 2021 or the latest available year. “Heating” refers to all heating, including hot water; “appliances” includes cooking, cooling and lighting. Shapley decomposition based on a linear model regressing the logarithm of residential emissions per capita on various explanatory variables. “Fuel mix” comprises the share of coal and the share of oil and gas in total energy production. GDP per capita is measured at market exchange rates. In the case of heating, the “average temperature” variable is the sum of all downward deviations in average monthly temperatures from 15°C across all months; in the case of appliances, it is the sum of all downward deviations in average monthly temperatures from 15°C across all months plus the sum of all upward deviations in average monthly temperatures from 21°C. “Dwelling size” is measured as the logarithm of square metres per capita. “Metering” is the average share of metered heating (in percentage terms) plus the average share of smart meters (so smart meters are counted twice). “Energy subsidies” is calculated as the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation of the fossil fuel subsidy as a percentage of GDP, based on data from the IMF and the IEA. “Insulation” is the percentage of buildings with at least some double-glazed windows plus the percentage of buildings with all windows double-glazed (so again, fully double-glazed buildings are counted twice).
Policy Implications

The significant environmental footprint of housing is, to a large extent, shaped by countries’ use of coal and other fossil fuels for the generation of electricity. While greening the electricity mix can thus reduce the emissions associated with appliances, decarbonising heating in cold climates presents unique technological and policy challenges. Nevertheless, differences in average temperatures explain only 15% of total variation in heating-related emissions per capita across economies.

Historically, building codes have been the primary policy for residential energy efficiency (Puller et al. 2022). However, while these regulations have their merits, the influence of building codes is relatively limited as they typically only apply to new construction. Our analysis suggests that relatively low-cost, technologically straightforward improvements, such as installing meters for water and heating, upgrading conventional meters to smart meters and installing double-glazed windows, can help to significantly reduce residential emissions, taking the existing housing stock as given.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11 ... ating.html

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OXFAM CONFIRMS THAT THE RICHEST 1% ARE THE BIGGEST POLLUTERS IN THE WORLD
Nov 24, 2023 , 12:59 pm .

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The poorest population groups are the least responsible for the climate crisis, while those who accumulate the highest index of wealth continue to account for the highest rates of pollution (Photo: File)

A new Oxfam report reveals that the richest 1% of the world's population generated the same amount of carbon emissions in 2019 as the 5 billion people who represent the poorest two-thirds of the planet.

The NGO conglomerate, whose motto is to combat poverty, publishes this research called “Climate equality: a planet for the 99%” within the framework of the United Nations climate summit, which will be held in Dubai, an event marked due to inconsistencies over agreements to keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C.

According to Oxfam's review of the report, this 1% of pollutants will cause 1.3 million more heat-related deaths than expected, and most of these deaths will occur between 2020 and 2030.

"The richest are destroying the planet, plundering it and polluting it, while extreme heat, floods and droughts suffocate humanity," says Oxfam International's interim executive director, Amitabh Behar.

The research was based on analyzing the emissions linked to the consumption habits of different income groups in 2019, the last year for which data is available. The study reveals the enormous gap between the carbon footprints of the richest and the influence of their polluting lifestyle on global warming that affects the bulk of the world's population.

Other data revealed in the study:

*The richest 1% (77 million people) were responsible for 16% of total emissions according to their consumption habits in 2019.
*The richest 10% generated half (50%) of the total emissions.
*It would take the poor about 1,500 years to generate the emissions that the richest billionaires produce in one year.
*Every year, the emissions produced by the richest 1% cancel out the carbon emissions savings generated by almost a million wind turbines.

https://misionverdad.com/oxfam-confirma ... -del-mundo

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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