The Long Ecological Revolution

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Wed Jun 26, 2024 4:55 pm

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Fish Farm in Saronic Gulf. (Photo: Artur Rydzewski / Flickr)

The world is farming more seafood than it catches. Is that a good thing?
Originally published: Grist on June 14, 2024 by Frida Garza (more by Grist) | (Posted Jun 26, 2024)
Agriculture, Ecology, Environment, StrategyGlobalNewswireFish, United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
A new report from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, or FAO, has found that more fish were farmed worldwide in 2022 than harvested from the wild, an apparent first.

Last week, the FAO released its annual report on the state of aquaculture–which refers to the farming of both seafood and aquatic plants–and fisheries around the world. The organization found that global production from both aquaculture and fisheries reached a new high–223.3 million metric tons of animals and plants–in 2022. Of that, 185.4 million metric tons were aquatic animals, and 37.8 million metric tons were algae. Aquaculture was responsible for 51 percent of aquatic animal production in 2022, or 94.4 metric tons.

The milestone was in many ways an expected one, given the world’s insatiable appetite for seafood. Since 1961, consumption of seafood has grown at twice the annual rate of the global population, according to the FAO. Because production levels from fisheries are not expected to change significantly in the future, meeting the growing global demand for seafood almost certainly necessitates an increase in aquaculture.

Though fishery production levels fluctuate from year to year, “it’s not like there’s new fisheries out there waiting to be discovered,” said Dave Martin, program director for Sustainable Fisheries Partnerships, an international organization that works to reduce the environmental impact of seafood supply chains.

So any growth in consumption of seafood is going to come from aquaculture.

But the rise of aquaculture underscores the need to transform seafood systems to minimize their impact on the planet. Both aquaculture and fisheries–sometimes referred to as capture fisheries, as they involve the capture of wild seafood–come with significant environmental and climate considerations. What’s more, the two systems often depend on each other, making it difficult to isolate their climate impacts.

“There’s a lot of overlap between fisheries and aquaculture that the average consumer may not see,” said Dave Love, a research professor at the Center for a Livable Future at Johns Hopkins University.

Studies have shown that the best diet for the planet is one free of animal protein. Still, seafood generally has much lower greenhouse gas emissions than other forms of protein from land-based animals. And given many people’s unwillingness or inability to go vegan, the FAO recommends transforming, adapting, and expanding sustainable seafood production to feed the world’s growing population and improve food security.

But “there’s a lot of ways to do aquaculture well, and there’s a lot of ways to do it poorly,” said Martin. Aquaculture can result in nitrogen and phosphorus being released into the natural environment, damaging aquatic ecosystems. Farmed fish can also spread disease to wild populations, or escape from their confines and breed with other species, resulting in genetic pollution that can disrupt the fitness of a wild population. Martin points to the diesel fuel used to power equipment on certain fish farms as a major source of aquaculture’s environmental impact. According to an analysis from the climate solutions nonprofit Project Drawdown, swapping out fossil fuel-based generators on fish farms for renewable-powered hybrids would prevent 500 million to 780 million metric tons of carbon emissions by 2050.

Other areas for improvement will vary depending on the specific species being farmed. In 2012, a U.N. study found that mangrove forests–a major carbon sink–have suffered greatly due to the development of shrimp and fish farming. Today, industry stakeholders have been exploring how new approaches and techniques from shrimp farmers can help restore mangroves.

Meanwhile, wild fishing operations present their own environmental problems. For example, poorly managed fisheries can harvest fish more quickly than wild populations can breed, a phenomenon known as overfishing. Certain destructive wild fishing techniques also kill a lot of non-targeted species, known as bycatch, threatening marine biodiversity.

But the line between aquaculture and fish harvested from the wild isn’t as clear as it may seem. For example, pink salmon that are raised in hatcheries and then released into the wild to feed, mature, and ultimately be caught again are often marketed as “wild caught.” Lobsters, caught wild in Maine, are often fed bait by fisherman to help them put on weight. “It’s a wild fishery,” said Love–but the lobster fishermen’s practice of fattening up their catch shows how human intervention is present even in wild-caught operations.

On the flipside, in a majority of aquaculture systems, farmers provide their fish with feed. That feed sometimes includes fish meal, says Love, a powder that comes from two sources: seafood processing waste (think: fish guts and tails) and wild-caught fish.

All of this can result in a confusing landscape for climate- or environmentally-conscientious consumers who eat fish. But Love recommends a few ways in which consumers can navigate choice when shopping for seafood. Buying fresh fish locally helps shorten supply chains, which can lower the carbon impact of eating aquatic animals. “In our work, we’ve found that the big impact from transport is shipping fresh seafood internationally by air,” he said. Most farmed salmon, for example, sold in the U.S. is flown in.

From both a climate and a nutritional standpoint, smaller fish and sea vegetables are also both good options. “Mussels, clams, oysters, seaweed–they’re all loaded with macronutrients and minerals in different ways” compared to fin fish, said Love.

https://mronline.org/2024/06/26/the-wor ... t-catches/

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Rich nation hypocrisy accelerating global heating
By Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Posted Jun 24, 2024)

Originally published: Inter Press Service on April 24, 2024 (more by Inter Press Service) |

Rich nations’ climate hypocrisy is accelerating global heating, pushing the planet closer to irreversible catastrophe, with its worst consequences borne by the poorest, both countries and peoples.

Climate injustice
While official and other discourses acknowledge or even invoke the need for collective responsibility, the disparity in culpability between wealthy nations and the developing world is stark.

Historically, the industrialized nations of the global North have been the primary contributors to greenhouse gas emissions but continue to evade their fair share of responsibility.

The narrative of an equally shared burden of combating climate change conveniently obscures disproportionately greater emissions and historical exploitation by rich countries.

The European Union’s ambitious new ‘equitable’ climate policies, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), continue this hypocrisy. While ostensibly aimed at reducing emissions, such measures burden developing countries more, further deepening world inequalities.

Market solutions best?
Similarly, carbon taxes, prices and emissions trading systems make it much harder for nations with fewer resources to afford adequate climate action. They have few resources to adapt to global heating and its effects, let alone afford the costly transitions to cleaner technologies and other mitigation measures.

Furthermore, developed nations have relocated energy-intensive industries to the global South to ‘export emissions’. Thus, they effectively shift blame while consuming most goods and services produced at high environmental costs.

Limiting the average temperature increase to no more than 1.5°C (degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels, as agreed to by the UNFCCC, will require drastic reduction of carbon (dioxide equivalent) emissions by 45% below 2010 levels by 2030!

Instead, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates current trends will increase the average temperature by 2.7°C by 2100, far above catastrophic levels.

Despite the urgency, countries are mainly focused on committing to the distracting ‘net-zero’ carbon emissions by 2050, ignoring the urgent need for substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cuts.

At recent climate conferences, carbon pricing and related market mechanisms have been ‘sold’ as an effective and fair means to rapidly reduce carbon dioxide and other GHG emissions to mitigate climate change.

Carbon tax revenue distribution
Worse, there is no discussion of how revenues from carbon taxation should be distributed equitably to accelerate climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in poorer countries.

Carbon pricing claims to penalise GHG emitters for the economic damages and losses caused by global warming. However, there is little evidence of efforts to compensate those most adversely affected.

Moreover, carbon market schemes have only made grossly inadequate impacts. Emissions have only been marginally reduced, well short of what the world needs to address the climate threat.

Besides being ineffective, only a tiny fraction of global GHG emissions are subject to carbon taxes, often imposed using biased methods and assumptions.

Carbon price discounts
Carbon prices have also been grossly discounted to induce market participation and public acceptability. Hence, carbon tax rates do not reflect the supposed social costs of adverse externalities.

Worse, despite the potential of carbon taxes to generate significant revenue for climate finance, progressive redistributive measures have not been developed, let alone implemented.

Hence, carbon pricing policies are not up to the task. They also fail to address underlying systemic issues driving global heating. Carbon taxes tend to be regressive, disproportionately burdening low-income individuals and countries.

Without a progressive reallocation of resources, poor nations and people cannot afford to adapt to global heating, let alone contribute to needed worldwide climate action efforts or achieve sustainable development.

Government fossil fuel subsidies, e.g., to ensure support against Russia after its Ukraine invitation, have undermined the purpose of carbon pricing. With such subsidies, carbon prices became negative in many countries in 2022.

Zero for ‘net-zero’
Carbon offset markets, touted as a way to achieve net-zero emissions, have been criticised as an ineffective distraction, allowing the wealthy to continue emitting GHGs while profiting financial intermediaries.

While successfully touted as a rallying slogan for climate action, the net-zero emissions target is dangerously misleading. Commitments to achieve net-zero emissions typically rely on ‘offsetting’, which allows countries and companies to avoid reducing emissions.

Despite earlier surges in demand for carbon offsets from major financial investors, much of the profit goes to arbitrage, speculation, and trading rather than decarbonisation efforts.

Initiatives like the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero were touted as significant breakthroughs. However, there is much reason to be sceptical about the effectiveness of such initiatives for reducing GHG emissions.

Less than half a year after the Glasgow Conference of Parties (COP), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and allied countries abandoned their declared commitment to end burning coal despite all its additional dangers, such as sulphide and sulphate emissions.

Market solutions or delusions?
While carbon pricing and offset markets have been promoted as solutions to mitigate global warming, their limitations and ineffectiveness in significantly reducing emissions underscore the need for alternative strategies.

Selective investment and technology promotion policies and greatly increased climate finance for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries are crucial.

They can only succeed if pragmatically conceived and implemented, considering the range of sustainable development and other challenges faced.

Addressing climate change requires a comprehensive, equitable, and pragmatic approach that prioritizes substantial emissions reductions and supports vulnerable populations most affected by global heating.

https://mronline.org/2024/06/24/rich-na ... l-heating/

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How Recycling Has Become a Largely Empty Gesture
Posted on June 22, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. This article describes how the good intentions of the push for more recycling have gone awry. The causes are many, but particularly prominent are lack of clear guidance to consumers on what is worth recycling and poor consumer and trash hauler compliance. People in my old building would regularly put general garbage in the recycling bins. Of course, they may have heard the probably accurate rumor that the contents of the recycling containers were tossed in with the garbage when the Sanitation Department trucks arrived.

This piece shows how the recycling push has encouraged consumers to accept wasteful packaging, particularly plastics, when forcing the use of more biodegradable material would have been a less damaging course of action.

By Kate Yoder. Originally published at Grist; cross posted from Yale Climate Connections

T’s Earth Day 1990, and Meryl Streep walks into a bar. She’s distraught about the state of the environment. “It’s crazy what we’re doing. It’s very, very, very bad,” she says in ABC’s prime-time Earth Day special, letting out heavy sighs and listing jumbled statistics about deforestation and the hole in the ozone layer.

The bartender, Kevin Costner, says he used to be scared, too — until he started doing something about it. “These?” he says, holding up a soda can. “I recycle these.” As Streep prepares to launch her beer can into the recycling bin, Costner cautions her, “This could change your life.”

Recycling, once considered the domain of people with “long hair, granny glasses, and tie-dyed Ts,” as the Chicago Tribune described it at the time, was about to go mainstream. The iconic chasing-arrows recycling symbol, invented 20 years earlier, was everywhere in the early 1990s. Its tight spiral of folded arrows seemed to promise that discarded glass bottles and yellowing newspapers had a bright future, where they could be reborn in a cycle that stretched to infinity. As curbside pickup programs spread across the United States, the practice of sorting your trash would become, for many, as routine as brushing your teeth — an everyday habit that made you feel a little more responsible.

What no one anticipated was just how emotionally attached people would become to recycling as the solution to America’s ugly trash problem. When the chasing arrows’ promise of rebirth was broken, they could get angry. One cold winter day in 1991, people in Holyoke, Massachusetts, chased after garbage trucks, yelling for them to stop, after the drivers had nabbed their sorted glass, cans, and cardboard from the curb. Strained by an influx of holiday-related trash, the city had instructed workers to forgo recycling and just throw everything away.

Today, the recycling icon is omnipresent — found on plastic bottles, cereal boxes, and bins loitering alongside curbs across the country. The chasing arrows, though, are often plastered on products that aren’t recyclable at all, particularly products made of plastic, like dog chew toys and inflatable swim rings. Last year, the Environmental Protection Agency said that the symbol’s use on many plastic products was “deceptive.”

Recycling rules can be downright mystifying. For years, people were told pizza boxes were too greasy to be recycled, but now many recycling centers accept them. Some cities accept juice boxes lined with invisible layers of aluminum and plastic; others don’t. And do the screw-on caps stay on plastic bottles or not? Recycling experts ask people to do a “little bit of homework” to figure out what their local recycling system can handle, but since households have hundreds of items with different packaging to keep track of, that’s asking a lot.

The resulting confusion has made a mess of recycling efforts. Plastic wrap tangles around sorting equipment at recycling facilities, shutting down operations as employees try to cut it out of the equipment. Huge bales of paper shipped overseas can contain as much as 30 percent plastic waste. “Contamination is one of the biggest challenges facing the recycling industry,” the EPA said in a statement to Grist. It takes time and money to haul, sort through, and dispose of all this unwanted refuse, which makes recycling more of a burden for city budgets. Many cities have ended up cutting costs by working with private waste companies; some don’t even bother trying at all. About a quarter of Americans lack access to any recycling services.

The difficulty of recycling plastic can make the chasing-arrows symbol near meaningless, with environmental groups calling plastic recycling a “false solution.” Only around 5 percent of plastic waste in the United States gets shredded or melted down so that it can be used again. Much of the rest flows into landfills or gets incinerated, breaking down into tiny particles that can travel for thousands of miles and lodge themselves in your lungs. Plastics threaten “near-permanent contamination of the natural environment,” according to one study, and pose a global health crisis, with plastic chemicals linked to preterm births, heart attacks, and cancer.

So where did the three arrows go wrong? The trouble is that their loop has ensnared us. If some recycling is good, the thinking goes, then more recycling is better. That creates enormous pressure for packaging to be made recyclable and stamped with the arrows — regardless of whether trying to recycle a glass bottle or plastic yogurt container made much sense in the first place. David Allaway, a senior policy analyst at the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, says that the facts just don’t support the recycling symbol’s reputation as a badge of environmental goodness. “The magnetic, gravitational power of recycling,” he said, has led “policymakers and the public to just talk more and more and more about recycling, and less and less and less about anything else.”

In the spring of 1970, an estimated 20 million Americans — 10 percent of the population — showed up for the first Earth Day, taking part in rallies, marches, and teach-ins, calling for clean air and clean water. Pollution had pushed its way into the national conversation. The year before, oil-soaked debris had caught fire in the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, sending flames towering five stories high, and a drilling accident in Santa Barbara had spread an oil slick over more than 800 square miles of water. Smog regularly clouded skies from Birmingham, Alabama, to Los Angeles, dimming cities in the middle of the day.

The idea of recycling seemingly burst onto the scene in 1970. Earth Day organizers educated people about the value of sorting through their trash and advocated for community recycling programs. People would gather up their bottles and cans in plastic crates and bags and drive to designated sites to drop them off, sometimes earning a few bucks in return. “The environmental crisis has come into the public consciousness so recently that the word ‘recycle’ doesn’t even appear in most dictionaries,” the environmentalist Garrett De Bell wrote a couple weeks before the Earth Day event. He pitted recycling as “the only ecologically sensible long-term solution” for a country “knee-deep in garbage.”

It wasn’t long before the concept acquired its signature symbol. At the time, Gary Anderson was finishing up his master’s degree in architecture at the University of Southern California. He came across a poster advertising a contest to design a symbol for recycling, sponsored by the Container Corporation of America, a maker of cardboard boxes. Inspired by M.C. Escher’s Möbius strip, Anderson spent just a couple of days coming up with designs using the now-famous trio of folded, rotating arrows. The simplest of his designs won, and Anderson was awarded a $2,500 scholarship in 1970. The Container Corporation quickly put the logo in the public domain, hoping it would be adopted on all recycled or recyclable products in order to “spread awareness among concerned citizens.”

The Möbius loop he created soon passed from his mind. “I just didn’t really think of the symbol that much,” he recalls. “It wasn’t used very much in the first couple of years.” One day several years later, however, Anderson was wandering through the streets of Amsterdam in the haze of jet lag when he came across a row of oversized bins emblazoned with a beach ball-sized version of his logo. The Netherlands, purportedly, was the first country to launch a nationwide recycling program in 1972. “It just really shocked me into a realization that there must be something about this symbol,” he said.

Refashioning old materials into new things is a longstanding American tradition. Paul Revere, folk hero of the American Revolution, collected scrap metal and turned it into horseshoes. In the 19th century, used rags were turned into paper, and families stitched together scraps of fabric to create quilts. The desperation of the Great Depression taught people to make underwear out of cotton flour sacks, and the propaganda posters of World War II positioned recycling as a patriotic duty: “Prepare your tin cans for war.”

“It was not in our DNA to be this wasteful,” said Jackie Nuñez, the advocacy program manager at the Plastic Pollution Coalition, a communications nonprofit. “We had to be trained, we had to be marketed to, to be wasteful like this.”

One of the first lessons of “throwaway society” came in the 1920s, when White Castle became the first fast-food restaurant to sell its burgers in single-use bags, advertising them as clean and convenient. “Buy ’em by the sack,” the slogan went. In 1935, the big breweries that survived the Prohibition era started shipping beer in lighter, cheaper-to-transport steel cans instead of returnable glass bottles. Coca-Cola and other soda companies eventually followed suit.

All those paper sacks and cans soon littered the sides of American roadways, and people started calling on the companies that created the waste to clean it up. Corporations responded by creating the first anti-litter organization, Keep America Beautiful, founded in 1953 by the American Can Company and the Owens-Illinois Glass Company. Keep America Beautiful’s advertisements in the 1960s looked like public service announcements, but they subtly shifted the blame for all the garbage to individuals. Some featured “Susan Spotless,” a girl in a white dress who would wag her finger at anyone who soiled public spaces with their litter.

The pressure on American businesses didn’t go away, though. On the Sunday after Earth Day in April 1970, some 1,500 protesters showed up at Coca-Cola’s headquarters in Atlanta to dump hundreds of cans and glass bottles at its entrance. Two years later, Oregon passed the country’s first “bottle bill” requiring a 5-cent deposit on bottles and cans sold in the state, incentivizing people to return them, while Congress was considering banning single-use beverage containers altogether. Manufacturers successfully lobbied against a federal ban, arguing that jobs would be lost, as the historian Bartow J. Elmore recounts in the book Citizen Coke: The Making of Coca-Cola Capitalism. But corporations still wanted to relieve the public pressure on them and outsource the costs of dealing with the waste they were creating. Luckily for them, recycling was in vogue.

In New York City, the war on waste was spearheaded by the Environmental Action Coalition, an organization raising funds for its “Trash Is Cash” community recycling program, with the long-term goal of getting recyclables picked up by city workers outside homes. Curbside recycling seemed to serve everyone’s interest: Environmentalists wanted to waste less, and companies could use it as an opportunity to shift the cost of dealing with waste onto city governments. Businessmen who volunteered with the Environmental Action Coalition solicited millions in donations from their colleagues in the 1970s, writing that recycling had “substantial promise” to fend off any legislation to ban or tax single-use containers.

The campaign was a deliberate attempt to divert attention from more meaningful solutions like bottle bills, yet environmental groups embraced it, according to Recycling Reconsidered, a 2012 book bySamantha MacBride, who worked in New York City’s sanitation department for two decades. The New York City Council started its mandatory curbside pickup program in the late 1980s, several years after the first one began in Woodbury, New Jersey, requiring residents to set out their paper, metal, glass, and some types of plastic in bins at the curb. The idea picked up in cities across the country, with the number of curbside programs growing from 1,000 to 5,000 between 1988 and 1992, spreading the chasing arrows along with them.

“It was in the late ’80s and early ’90s that this thing just becomes everywhere,” said Finis Dunaway, a professor of history at Trent University in Canada. America was running out of places to put its trash, a dilemma captured by the story of a nomadic garbage barge in 1987. In March of that year, a barge teeming with 6 million pounds of trash left Long Island, New York, looking to unload its freight where the landfills weren’t already full. States from North Carolina to Louisiana turned it away, and the barge spent months traveling around the Atlantic coast — all the way to Mexico, Belize, and the Bahamas — looking for a place to dispose of the garbage.

In October, the barge made its way back to Brooklyn, where a court ordered that its contents be incinerated — but not before Greenpeace activists hung a giant banner on the boat: “NEXT TIME … TRY RECYCLING.” Annie Leonard, the former executive director of Greenpeace, told PBS Frontline in 2020 that she wonders whether that banner was a mistake. “I think we were overly optimistic about the potential of recycling,” she said, “and perpetuating that narrative led us astray.”

There’s an iconic scene in the 1967 movie The Graduate, in which Dustin Hoffman’s character, Benjamin Braddock, gets cornered at his college graduation party by one of his parents’ friends. “I just want to say one word to you, just one word: plastics,” the older man says. “There’s a great future in plastics. Think about it.” One generation’s earnest advice for a successful career clashed with a new, skeptical attitude toward plastic, which had already become a byword for “fake.”

By the early 1970s, scientists had learned that whales, turtles, and other marine life were getting tangled up in plastic debris, a problem that was killing 40,000 seals a year. They knew, too, that small plastic fragments were making their way into the ocean, and that plastic residues had entered people’s bloodstreams, presenting what an official from President Richard Nixon’s Council of Environmental Quality deemed a significant health threat, “potentially our next bad one.” The more people learned, the more plastic’s reputation transformed from all-purpose, indestructible wonder into something that maybe shouldn’t be trusted in your new microwave. Between 1988 and 1989, the percentage of Americans who believed plastic was damaging the environment rose from 56 to 72 percent. Larry Thomas, the president of the Society of Plastics Industry, warned in an internal memo that companies were starting to lose business, writing, “We are approaching a point of no return.”

Beverage companies and the oil industry hoped to advertise their way out of the PR problem, laying out plans to spend $50 million a year to tout the polymer’s virtues with slogans like “plastics make it possible.” They also turned to recycling. Lewis Freeman, the former vice president of government affairs at the Society of the Plastics Industry, an industry group, told Grist that he has a vivid memory of a colleague coming into his office, saying, “We’ve got to do something to help the recyclers.”

Freeman tasked the Plastic Bottle Institute — made up of oil giants like BP and Exxon, chemical companies, and can manufacturers — with figuring out how to clarify to recycling sorters what kind of plastic was what. In 1988, they came up with the plastic resin code, the numbering system from 1 to 7 that’s still in place.

Polyethylene terephthalate, or PET (1), is used to make soft drink bottles; high-density polyethylene (2) is used for milk jugs; polyvinyl chloride (3) is used for PVC pipes in plumbing, and so on all through 7, the catch-all category for acrylic, polycarbonate, fiberglass, and other plastics. The Plastic Bottle Institute surrounded these numbers with the chasing arrows logo, giving the public the impression that they could throw all kinds of plastics into recycling bins, whether there was infrastructure to process them or not. The Connecticut Department of Environmental Conservation warned that the confusion it would cause “will have a severe impact on the already marginal economic feasibility of recycling plastics as well as on recycling programs as a whole.”

Once the symbol was operational, Freeman said, “then everybody started putting it on everything.” Companies worked to make it official: Starting in 1989, the Plastic Bottle Institute lobbied for state laws mandating that the code numbers appear on plastic products. Their express purpose was to fend off anti-plastic legislation, according to documents uncovered by the Center for Climate Integrity. The laws eventually passed in 39 states.

By the mid-1990s, the campaign to “educate” the public about plastic recycling had succeeded: Americans had a more favorable opinion of plastic, and efforts to ban or restrict production had died down. But recycling rates — the share of materials that actually get reprocessed — had barely improved. Instead, the United States started exporting plastic waste to China, where turning old plastic into new materials helped meet growing demand from manufacturers. Polling conducted for the American Plastics Council in 1997 showed that people who worked in waste management were losing hope that plastics could be recycled, while the public, journalists, and government officials believed they could be recycled at unrealistically high rates.

The problem was, fulfilling what companies called the “the urgent need to recycle” wasn’t as easy as the advertisements made it look. For decades, industry insiders expressed serious doubts that recycling plastic would ever be profitable, with one calling the economic case “virtually hopeless” in 1969. There are thousands of plastic products, and they all need to be sorted and put through different processes to be turned into something new. The way packaging is molded — blown, extruded, or stamped — means that even the same types of plastic can have their own melting points. A PET bottle can’t be recycled with the clear PET packaging that encases berries. A clear PET bottle can’t be recycled with a green one.

The plastics that do happen to get sorted and processed can only be “downcycled,” since melting them degrades their quality. Recycled plastic, it turns out, is more toxic than virgin plastic, liable to leach dangerous chemicals, so it can’t safely be turned into food-grade packaging. It’s also more expensive to produce. The result of this morass is that there is virtually no market for recycled plastics beyond those marked with 1s and 2s; the rest are incinerated or sent to landfills. Only 9 percent of the plastics ever produced have gone on to be recycled.

As plastic waste piled up and public frustration mounted, the Sustainable Packaging Coalition — backed by corporate giants including Procter and Gamble, Coca-Cola, and Exxon Mobil — launched a bigger, more specific recycling initiative in 2008 called “How2Recycle.” It came with new labels that appeared to provide clarity about which elements of a product could be recycled, distinguishing between plastic wrap and coated trays, sometimes qualifying the recycling logo with “store drop-off” labels for plastic bags and film.

But environmental advocates say that the How2Recycle labels, used by more than a third of the companies that package consumer goods, may be even more misleading than the resin code. For example, plastic yogurt containers made of polypropylene, number 5s, are considered “widely recyclable” under the system, yet only 3 percent of all the polypropylene containers produced actually get recycled.

The plastic resin code with the chasing arrows certainly confused people — 68 percent of Americans surveyed in 2019said they thought anything labeled with the code could be recycled. But the How2Recycle labels “put the lies on steroids,” said Jan Dell, the founder of the nonprofit The Last Beach Cleanup. It’s not just a tiny triangular indent on the bottom of a container anymore, but a large, high-contrast recycling logo that “stares you in the face.”

Given the dismal state of plastic recycling, it might seem like the best thing to do is throw the chasing arrows in the garbage. But not all recycling is a failure. “Metals are the true success story,” said Carl Zimring, a waste historian at the Pratt Institute in Brooklyn. As much as three-quarters of all the aluminum that’s ever been produced is still in use, he said. Paper is also relatively easy to process, with more than two-thirds making its way into new products in the U.S. Even for a recycling standby like glass, though, less than a third gets broken down into fragments for new jars and bottles.

The recycling logo still gives anything it touches — whether feasible to recycle or not — a green aura. Surveys show that a majority of Americans believe recycling is one of the most effective ways they can fight climate change, when experts say it’s unlikely to make much of a difference in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. That’s a credit to the iconic triangle, which has had 50 years to entrench itself in our culture. “It’s easy to bash on the image, or bash on corporations, without seeing this as something that is very powerful,” said Dunaway, the environmental historian. So is there a way to give the recycling symbol meaning again?

When recycling started taking off in the early 1990s, there was no definitive, agreed-upon definition of what it meant. “Anything is recyclable, at least theoretically,” one lawyer pointed out in a legal journal in 1991. The effort to impose some sort of order came from California, often the national laboratory for environmental protection. The state passed the country’s first restrictions on green claims in 1990, prohibiting advertisers from using terms like “ozone-friendly” and “recyclable” on items that didn’t meet its standards (though that stipulation didn’t survive a challenge in court).

Wider efforts to restrict the symbol, however, lacked strength and enforcement. In 1992, the Federal Trade Commission told advertisers they could call a product “recyclable” even if only 1 percent of their product was recycled. Not much else happened on that front until 2013, when the group that administers the plastic resin code, ASTM International, announced that it was replacing the chasing arrows with a solid triangle to reduce public confusion. It didn’t require manufacturers to rework their labels, though.

Today, that might finally be changing. When China banned the import of most plastics in 2018, it revealed problems that had long remained hidden. The United States had been shipping 70 percent of its plastic waste to China — 1.2 billion pounds in 2017 alone. States set about finding ways to fix the recycling system, with some focusing on the confusion generated by the symbol itself. In 2021, California — the world’s fifth-largest economy — passed a “truth in labeling” law prohibiting the use of the chasing arrows on items that are rarely recycled. To pass the test, 60 percent of Californians need to have access to a processing center that sorts a given material; on top of that, 60 percent of processors have to have access to a facility that will remanufacture the material into something else.

Though the bill faced opposition from companies right until it passed, the idea resonated with legislators, said Nick Lapis, the director of advocacy at Californians Against Waste. “It was pretty easy to understand that putting the chasing arrows symbol on a product that is not ever going to get recycled is not fair to consumers. Like, it just made so much intuitive sense that I think it kind of went beyond the lobbyist politics of Sacramento.”

Across the country, public officials in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, Minnesota, and Washington state are considering similar legislation. This spring, Maine passed a law to incentivize companies to use accurate recycling labels on their packaging. New rules around the recycling logo are also brewing at the national level. Last April, Jennie Romer, the EPA’s deputy assistant administrator for pollution prevention, called for the FTC to put an end to the “deceptive” use of the iconic chasing arrows on plastics in its upcoming revisions to the Green Guides for environmental marketing claims. “There’s a big opportunity for the Federal Trade Commission to make those updates to really set a high bar for what can be marketed as recyclable,” Romer told Grist. “Because that symbol, or marketing something as recyclable, is very valuable.”

Once California’s law goes into effect next year, state laws will clash with each other, since many states still require the resin numbers on plastic packaging. “The question on everyone’s mind is, who’s going to win out?” said Allaway, the Oregon official.

Talk of truth-in-labeling legislation has coincided with another trend — states trying to turn the costs for dealing with waste back on the manufacturers that produced it. Laws requiring “extended producer responsibility,” or EPR, for packaging have already been approved in Maine, Oregon, California, and Colorado. It’s already led to problems in California, since the EPR bill refers to the state’s truth-in-labeling law to determine which materials can be recycled, creating incentives for everything to be labeled as recyclable, Dell said.

Even if the Federal Trade Commission updates the Green Guides to prohibit the deceptive use of the recycling symbol, it doesn’t change the fact that the guides are just suggestions. They don’t carry the weight of law. “The FTC itself has never enforced a false recyclable label, ever, ever, on plastics, not once,” Dell said. One of Dell’s favorite metaphors: “It’s the wild, wild West of product claims and labeling, with no sheriff in town.”

So Dell has appointed herself de facto sheriff, suing companies over their false claims. In 2021, her organization reached a settlement with TerraCycle, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, and six other companies that agreed to change labels on their products. Dell recently filed a shareholder proposal with Kraft Heinz in an attempt to force it to remove recyclability claims from marshmallow bags and mac-and-cheese bowls destined for the landfill.

Another promising legal push is coming from California Attorney General Rob Bonta, who has been investigating fossil fuel and chemical companies for what he called “an aggressive campaign to deceive the public, perpetuating a myth that recycling can solve the plastics crisis.” Despite mounting awareness of plastic’s threat to public health, oil and chemical companies around the world make 400 million metric tons of the polymer every year, and production is on track to triple by 2060. It’s the oil industry’s backup business plan in the expectation that wealthy countries will shift away from gasoline in an effort to tackle climate change, since petroleum is the basic building block of plastics. Exxon Mobil, the world’s third-largest oil producer, ranks as the top plastic polymer producer.

Stricter enforcement around the use of the chasing arrows could lead to more accurate labels, less public confusion, and better outcomes for recycling centers. But it’s worth asking whether more recycling should even be the goal, rather than solutions that are much better for the environment, like reducing, reusing, refilling, and repairing. As Anderson, the symbol’s inventor, says, “I don’t think it’s really fair to blame a graphic symbol for all of our lack of initiative in trying to do better.”

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/06 ... sture.html

As with fish, the rot starts at the top. If it is not made it cannot be a problem.

The U.S. Is Nowhere Near Ready for Climate Change
Posted on June 26, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. This post describes the two main elements of climate change danger to communities, which are flooding/sea level rises and severe storms. We are now seeing a third threat come into focus: the health effects of exposure to extreme heat and the open question of whether current infrastructure can remedy it adequately.

I am mystified as to why more world cities facing flood and sea rise risks have not hired the Dutch to figure out how to protect them. And ideas like managed retreat are, as far as I can tell, absent from mainstream policy discussions.

By Jeff Masters, Ph.D., a hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. In 1995, he co-founded the Weather Underground, and served as its chief meteorologist and on its Board of Directors until it was sold to the Weather Company in 2012. Between 2005-2019, his Category 6 blog was one of the Internet’s most popular and widely quoted sources of extreme weather and climate change information. Originally published at Yale Climate Connections

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Debris from a collapsed house in Rodanthe, North Carolina, in the Outer Banks, on May 10, 2022. (Photo credit: Cape Hatteras National Seashore / public domain)

Consider this parable from not so long ago, in a galaxy not so far away:

The Kingdom of Nacirema has been engaged in a long and bloody conflict with an age-old foe, and the war has been going badly of late. More and more soldiers suffering from serious wounds and internal bleeding have been arriving at the hospital. But instead of being admitted to the hospital and receiving the operation needed to stem the bleeding — a painful and expensive procedure — the soldiers have been merely receiving blood transfusions and sent back to the front lines with a dose of painkillers.

Well, this is not working out so great, because the enemy is now using more dangerous weapons, which have been sold to them by the Kingdom of Nacirema’s powerful and corrupt corporations. Now even more soldiers are arriving at the hospital with more grievous wounds, requiring ever-larger blood transfusions. The supply of blood is running low, forcing the kingdom to make some tough choices. Because the soldiers’ wounds are now much more serious, not enough blood is available for the transfusions to save all of them. Which soldiers do they save — and which do they let die?

An Honest Conversation on Climate Change Triage Is Needed
The above story is an allegorical one about the U.S. approach to the new and worsening reality of climate extremes. Despite some recent progress (described in part one of this series), government programs to bolster public infrastructure and move people out of flood zones are drastically underfunded. As a result, when disaster strikes in the form of a major flood, hurricane, or the like, we merely give the equivalent of a blood transfusion to the injured, without stopping the bleeding.

The situation has now reached the point where the government can’t possibly make whole all those wiped out by a disaster, let alone buy out all of the properties that have flooded repeatedly or finance all the beach nourishment projects that could defend coastal property against sea level rise and stronger storms.

For example, the U.S. Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program, meant to help state and local governments better prepare for future disasters, is hugely oversubscribed, despite a recent addition of more funds. And though voluntary home buyouts have helped tens of thousands of families move out of flood-prone homes, millions more remain at risk.

Without a realistic managed-retreat policy, chaotic unmanaged retreat from the coasts and flood plains is more likely to occur, resulting in much greater harm to all affected — and to the economy.

Adapting to Climate Change Will Be Expensive — But Not as Expensive as Doing Nothing

The scope of the problem is vast.

As sea levels rise, $400 billion will be needed by 2040 to build sea walls to protect U.S. communities against floods expected to occur once per year, according to a 2019 study by the Center for Climate Integrity, which used a moderate sea level rise scenario.

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The move of the Cape Hatteras lighthouse, an example of successful managed retreat. When completed in 1870, the lighthouse in North Carolina’s Outer Banks had been located a safe 1,500 feet inland from the ocean, but natural barrier island erosion processes, augmented by rising seas and storm-driven tides, had reduced this distance to just 120 feet by 1999. That year, the lighthouse was moved 1,500 feet back from the shoreline at a cost of $12 million. Locals were strongly opposed to the move, believing it would harm the tourist industry. Ironically, the lighthouse is now more of a tourist attraction than ever. The regional slope of the land is one to 10,000, which means that a one-foot rise in sea level could move the shoreline about two miles. Thus, the lighthouse will likely have to be moved again later this century. (Image credit: National Park Service)

Other costs of preparing for sea level rise — including elevating buildings, hardening utilities, telecommunications, transportation systems, and water and sewage infrastructure, plus health care, community preparedness, and environmental protection and remediation, could be five to 10 times higher, or $2-4 trillion. Measures to protect communities from more infrequent floods, such as the one-in-100-year floods that are occurring with increasing regularity, could incur additional costs.

You can add to that bill the $104 billion needed to refurbish the nation’s dams, plus the tens of billions needed to upgrade our levees. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Act of 2021 allocated some $50 billion over five years for climate change resiliency, but a 2021 recommendation from the American Society of Civil Engineers estimated that over $2.5 trillion in unfunded infrastructure upgrades are needed by 2029 in order to attain “B” grades, meaning the infrastructure is safe and reliable.

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Money needed by 2029 to achieve a “B” grade for U.S. infrastructure. (Image credit: American Society of Civil Engineers 2021 Infrastructure Report Card)

Many infrastructure upgrades aren’t taking future climate extremes into account.

As sea level rise expert Robert Young of Coastal Carolina University wrote in a 2022 New York Times op-ed, “most of the funded projects are designed to protect existing infrastructure, in most cases with no demands for the recipients to improve long-term planning for disasters or to change patterns of future flood plain development. At the very least, we need to demand that communities accepting public funds for rebuilding or resilience stop putting new infrastructure in harm’s way.”

Just 3-10% of all money spent in the U.S. on climate-related projects is spent on adaptation; the vast majority of this financing comes from the public sector, according to climate adaptation expert Susan Crawford of Harvard. Most of the money spent on climate change — for example, in the landmark Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 — is earmarked for reducing climate pollution. Crawford advocates prioritizing adaptation spending, since every $1 invested in adaptation could yield up to $10 in net economic benefits, according to a 2021 report from the Global Commission on Adaptation.

At the same time, more Americans are moving into risky places. The U.S. population living along the coast at an elevation of 10 meters (33 feet) or lower is expected to grow to 44 million by 2060.

“Discouraging this risky new development will avoid much larger costs of relocating these people and the supporting infrastructure at a future date,” the Coastal Flood Resilience Project writes.

Resistance to Retreat

At the moment, taxpayers are subsidizing rebuilding properties in known hazard areas multiple times.

The U.S. National Flood Insurance Program paid out nearly $9 billion to so-called repetitive-loss properties between 1978 and 2012 — nearly 25% of total payments, according to the book “Extreme Cities,” by Ashley Dawson. These payouts were skewed heavily toward rich people.

A managed retreat from risky places, accompanied by the building of new, dense construction in the right places, could reduce taxpayer costs and prepare Americans for the coming climate extremes.

But there is little appetite or incentive for politicians to embrace this solution. For example, cities rely on the municipal bond market to fund city services. But any attempt to implement a managed retreat program from risky areas could hurt their credit rating, because a shrinking population is one less able to repay its debt.

“It is rational for city officials to delay any real effort to move people out of harm’s way, or even to suggest that such a step may ever be necessary,” Crawford wrote.

In his 2024 essay, “The Insurance Apocalypse Conversation America Won’t Have,” journalist Hamilton Nolan is blunt about “how far we are from a genuine public discourse on this topic. We are still mired in the ‘Everything is fine!’ phase, where nervous, sweating politicians with pasted-on smiles beckon you into their doomed states while silently praying that the collapse doesn’t come while they’re still in office.”

Voluntary home buyouts have helped about 45,000 families move out of flood-prone homes over the past 30 years, but this represents a tiny fraction of the millions at risk and is fewer than the number of homes experiencing repeat flood damage and the number of new homes built in flood plains. In her 2023 book, “Charleston: Race, Water, and the Coming Storm,” Crawford of Harvard includes a detailed analysis of the problem, arguing that federal leadership and funding are needed to properly manage retreat from coastal regions:

If FEMA’s buyouts continue at their current pace, they’ll be able to get to about 130,000 more houses over the next 90 years. But there are something like thirteen million Americans in coastal areas who will need buyouts by 2051. FEMA’s current buyout program does not offer any help to people in public housing or renters. What’s needed is a region-wide strategic withdrawal program assisted by coordinated governments at all levels, not a series of one-off buyouts.

Do the math: Only 1% of the needed buyouts may happen under the current system — which also happens to be a cumbersome and unfair process. Buyouts usually take two to five years to finish, and FEMA disproportionately funds buyouts of vulnerable properties in White communities compared to communities of color, since money is allocated based on a cost-benefit analysis that prioritizes more expensive properties. Wealthier communities may also have more resources to influence decision-makers who decide who gets a buyout.

Without a realistic managed-retreat policy, chaotic unmanaged retreat is likely to occur, with plenty of legal challenges, resulting in much greater harm to all affected — and to the economy. As Duke University sea level rise expert Orrin Pilkey and co-authors wrote in their 2016 book, “Retreat From a Rising Sea: Hard Choices in an Age of Climate Change“:

Like it or not, we will retreat from most of the world’s non-urban shorelines in the not very distant future. Our retreat options can be characterized as either difficult or catastrophic. We can plan now and retreat in a strategic and calculated fashion, or we can worry about it later and retreat in tactical disarray in response to devastating storms. In other words, we can walk away methodically, or we can flee in panic.

In their thought-provoking 2021 essay, America’s Next Great Migrations Are Driven by Climate Change, Parag Khanna and Susan Joy Hassol write:

In the 21st century, we must shift from coastal to inland, from low to high elevation, and from resource-depleted to resource-rich areas — and we must do so sustainably, for our next habitat may well be our last chance to coexist with nature before there is nothing left to sustain us. To re-sort ourselves according to better latitude and altitude is not to “retreat” but to embrace the future guided by tools that identify topographies better suited for human habitation.

What We Need: Adaptation That’s Transformative, Not Just Incremental

The 2023 U.S. National Climate Assessment, the government’s preeminent report on climate change, recognized the inadequacy of our climate adaptation efforts, saying: “The effects of human-caused climate change are already far-reaching and worsening across every region of the United States … current adaptation efforts and investments areinsufficient to reduce today’s climate-related risks.” The report called for “transformative adaptation,” giving as examples:

Directing new housing development to less flood-prone areas
Revitalization of rivers and relocation of human activities in flood plains (as opposed to building channels and dikes)
The shift from fossil fuels toward clean energy production
Creation of multi-stakeholders’ committees for managing water use quotas during scarcity (compared to top-down decisions)
In contrast, much of current U.S. climate adaptation efforts are examples of “incremental adaptation, such as spending money to elevate homes above floodwaters. For example, the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law included funds to elevate 19 single-family homes in the Florida Keys.

I love the Keys, but cruel math says that it is not cost-effective to defend the low-lying islands, which are all but certain to be swamped by rising seas in the coming decades. A state-commissioned 2020 report by the Urban Land Institute found that spending about $8 billion to combat sea level rise and storm surges in the Keys would only prevent about $3 billion in damages over the period 2020-2070 — a return of just 41 cents on each dollar spent. In contrast, the study found that in Miami, a similar investment would yield a return of over $9 for each dollar spent.

The 2022 IPCC report affirmed the idea that difficult trade-offs are in store: “Only avoidance and relocation can remove coastal risks for the coming decades, while other measures only delay impacts for a time, have increasing residual risk or perpetuate risk and create ongoing legacy effects and virtually certain property and ecosystem losses.”

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The U.S. has a long history of successful managed retreat and community relocation efforts that we can learn from, climate scientist Nicholas Pinter discusses in a 2021 essay, True Stories of Managed Retreat From Rising Waters. He acknowledges, though, that the lessons learned from relocating relatively small communities in recent years (above) will be difficult to scale up by several orders of magnitude.

A Vision for the Right Way to do Managed Retreat

As Crawford writes, “This is the American approach in a nutshell: Here’s data. Here are a set of perverse incentives — growth above all, dependence on property tax receipts, perceived need to encourage people to live in risky areas by selling them flood insurance — and broken, patchwork, scattershot legal authorities and programs that make scaled-up, thoughtful relocation just about impossible.”

But U.S. climate adaptation efforts could be significantly reformed with the passage of the bipartisan National Coordination on Adaptation and Resilience for Security Act of 2023, which would create the organizational structure needed to move forward and appoint a chief resilience officer appointed by the president to coordinate climate adaptation efforts. Perhaps the chief resilience officer could take some advice from Crawford’s 2023 book, which has the best proposal I’ve seen on how we should be handling managed retreat from sea level rise:

Imagine gradually making it more expensive to live in dangerous places while simultaneously providing time-limited incentives and subsidies supporting moving away — a multidecade plan, for example, to gradually phase out the mortgages on properties that will be eventually returned to nature, and to subsidize future rent payments if made in higher, drier places. Imagine planning for a multidecade, gradual move, in consultation with each community, to new and welcoming locations well-connected to transit and jobs. Imagine caring for the least well-off among us, ensuring that they have a voice in this planning and choices about whether, when, and how to leave, while firmly setting an endpoint on human habitation in the riskiest places, or, at least, making it clear that these places will be repurposed for other uses. Without this kind of vision, the coming transition will be a cliff rather than a slope, casting millions into sudden misery. Governments at all levels need to understand that the riskiest response of all would be to do nothing, or to act only incrementally, in the face of already accelerating threats that may at any moment abruptly begin accelerating even more quickly, robbing us of our ability to plan. Would you get on an elevator if you knew there was a substantial chance of the cables holding the car snapping just before you reached your floor? Would you have your city’s residents collectively get on that elevator? I don’t think so.

Recommended Reading at link.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/06 ... hange.html

Managed retreat is the logical thing to do until it bumps up into capitalist logic. The owners of seafront property expect society at large to protect their equity, regardless of the futility. Again and again, the problem is capitalism.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Mon Jul 01, 2024 2:47 pm

Capitalism’s New Age of Plagues, Part 6: China’s Livestock Revolution
June 26, 2024

The near-universal adoption of mass production in confined facilities makes pandemics all but inevitable

Image
A confined pig breeding facility operated by Jiangxi Zhengbang Breeding Company in Jiangxi Province.

Part 6 of an article on the causes and implications of global capitalism’s descent into an era when infectious diseases are ever more common. My views are subject to continuing debate and testing in practice. I look forward to your comments, criticisms, and corrections.

I apologize for the delay in publishing this installment. I hope to complete Part 7 more quickly.

[Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3] [Part 4] [Part 5]

by Ian Angus

Fifteen months before COVID-19, a pandemic broke out in China.

African Swine Fever (ASF)[1] has been endemic in wild boars and hogs in sub-Saharan Africa for centuries. In the early 1900s it jumped from wild boars to domesticated pigs imported to Kenya from Europe by colonists. Since then there have been outbreaks in various parts of the world, caused in some cases by feral pigs and wild boars, in others by humans transporting infected pigs or contaminated feed. There is no treatment or vaccine, and close to 100 percent of infected animals die..

When ASF was diagnosed in pig farms in northeastern China in August 2018, the Chinese government immediately ordered the slaughter of all pigs in the area — 38,000 in all. Unfortunately, as subsequent genetic analysis proved, the disease had already been circulating undetected for several months, so the cull was too late. The virus was already on the move. In short order there were outbreaks in every province, and plague had spread to 14 other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Officially, between 2018 and 2019 the number of farmed pigs in China fell 28 percent, from 428 million to 310 million. Pork production plunged and the retail price of pork — the most popular meat in China — more than doubled.[2]

The rapid spread of African Swine Fever was a direct result of radical changes in China’s livestock industries. The near-universal adoption of mass production in confined facilities made something like the ASF pandemic all but inevitable. The same changes contributed to the rapid spread of COVID-19.

+ + + +

There is an ongoing debate on the left about whether Chinese society as a whole is socialist, capitalist, or something new and unique. I won’t attempt to resolve or even address that question here, but I think there can be no doubt that in recent decades China’s agricultural sector has become distinctly capitalist. That’s particularly true of livestock, where the production model developed by Tyson Foods and other US agrifood corporations has been almost universally adopted.

The transformation began in 1978, when the Mao-era agricultural communes were dismantled, replaced first by individual family holdings, and then by a largely unregulated market system in which millions of small farms were squeezed out by agribusiness corporations. In livestock this change first affected poultry.

“Up until the mid-1980s, poultry production was a minor sideline activity for rural households to supplement other farming activities. Millions of small farmers produced a few to, at most, several dozen chickens. With the exception of a few state farms operating outside big cities, there were no large-scale commercial poultry farms. Between 1985 and 2005, 70 million small poultry farmers left the sector. Within a period of fifteen years (1996–2011), the total number of broiler farms in China decreased by 75 percent.”[3]

Most poultry farms in China are still small, but the majority of broilers are now raised indoors, with thousands of birds confined in small spaces. Egg production is also concentrated: at the end of 2022, Beijing Deqingyuan, which then had 20.6 million laying hens, announced plans to triple that, which would make it the largest egg producer in the world.[4]

Pork production has been similarly transformed.

“Until 1985, as much as 95 percent of all the pork in China was produced by smallholder farmers who raised fewer than five pigs per year on household plots. … In 2015 the pork sector was composed mostly of medium-scale household farms (up to 500 pigs per year), large-scale commercial farms (500–10,000 pigs per year), and mega-operations (more than 10,000 pigs per year).”[5]

Unlike meat producers in the US, Chinese corporations did not have to experiment with various approaches to industrialization: they rapidly adopted the most successful methods pioneered by western agribusiness. Confined Animal Feeding Operations in China are “constructed of the same materials, drawn from the same blueprints, and erected out of the same notion of modern production as industrial farms everywhere, a CAFO in China looks like a CAFO in Iowa, though sometimes at a larger scale with more connected buildings.”[6]

Chinese agribusiness has used US-developed methods to out-produce the originators. Today China produces more than half of the world’s pork and eggs, and Chinese agribusiness is expanding globally. In 2013, the Chinese corporation ShuangHui International purchased US agribusiness giant Smithfield Foods, for $4.7 Billion: the combined operation, WH Foods, is the largest pork producer in the world.


A Dragon Dance

Meat production in China is not (yet) as concentrated as in North America, but the most common business model was directly copied from the contracting scheme developed by western agribusiness giants. Vertically integrated corporations — known officially in China as Dragonhead Enterprises, evoking the lead position in ceremonial dragon dances — provide chicks, piglets, feed, antibiotics and other inputs to contract farmers who house and raise the animals as the corporation dictates. As Richard Lewontin argues, under such arrangements the contract farmer appears independent, but actually has “no control over the labor process or over the alienated product.” The Dragonhead system changes the farmer “from an independent producer … into a proletarian without options.”[7]

The consolidation of meat production in large centralized facilities has been accompanied by rapid expansion of transportation infrastructure. “In 2000, for example, China had 1.4 million kilometers of paved roads, and by 2019, this number more than tripled, reaching 4.8 million kilometers. Railway development progressed even faster, growing from 10,000 to 139,000 kilometers between 2000 and 2019.”[8] Those transportation networks allow animals and animal products to move quickly from farms to urban markets; they also, as the African Swine Fever and COVID-19 pandemics showed, enable infectious diseases to spread quickly, far beyond their point of origin, outracing public health measures.

Some of the largest Dragonhead companies are now building even larger production facilities. New Hope Group, for example, can raise up to 120,000 pigs a year in three recently completed five-story “hog hotels” near Beijing, and Guangxi Yangxiang’s multi-building multi-story complex near Guigang will soon be the largest swine breeding operation in the world, housing 30,000 sows and producing over 800,000 piglets a year.

As discussed in previous installments, packing thousands of genetically identical birds or animals in confined facilities creates ideal conditions for new infectious diseases to mutate, emerge, and spread. The pandemic machine, invented in the US, has found another home in China.

Factory operations, heavy capital investment, lax environmental controls and state support have all contributed to spectacular growth of meat production. Between 1980 and 2010, the number of farmed animals and birds tripled, and the number of industrial farms increased 70-fold.[9] Mass production has cut retail prices, making high quality protein affordable to hundreds of millions who previously ate meat only on special occasions, if at all. “Average meat, milk, and egg consumption per capita increased by 3.9, 10, and 6.9 times, respectively, between 1980 and 2010, which was by far the largest increase during this period in the world.”[10]

But, as Karl Marx wrote, the profit system is like a “hideous, pagan idol, who would not drink the nectar but from the skulls of the slain.”[11] Capitalist growth always comes with deadly costs. In addition to the serious health effects of increased dietary fat, the commodification of pigs and poultry has polluted water, air and soil, changed much land-use from human food to animal feed, increased fossil fuel emissions, forced the migration of millions of bankrupted farmers to urban slums — and driven major outbreaks of infectious diseases, including Bird Flu, SARS, Swine Fever, and COVID-19.

In short, China’s adoption of industrial agriculture is driving ecological catastrophes. As we will see, applied to wildlife farming, it triggered one of the worst pandemics of modern times.

[To be continued]


Footnotes

[1] Not an influenza, not related to Swine Flu

[2] Fred Gale, Jennifer Kee, and Joshua Huang, eds., How China’s African Swine Fever Outbreaks Affected Global Pork Markets, Economic Research Report Number 326, 2023, 12, 25.

[3] Chendog Pi, Zhang Rou, Sarah Horowitz, “Fair or Fowl? Industrialization of Poultry Production in China,” Global Meat Complex: The China Series (Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, February 2014), 21.

[4] “Which Are Asia’s Largest Egg Producers?,” WATTPoultry.com, December 27, 2022.

[5] Brian Lander, Mindi Schneider, and Katherine Brunson, “A History of Pigs in China: From Curious Omnivores to Industrial Pork,” The Journal of Asian Studies 79, no. 4 (November 2020): 11–12.

[6] Mindi Schneider and Shefali Sharma, “China’s Pork Miracle? Agribusiness and Development in China’s Pork Industry,” Global Meat Complex: The China Series (Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, February 2014), 31.

[7] Richard C. Lewontin and Richard Levins, Biology under the Influence: Dialectical Essays on Ecology, Agriculture, and Health (New York: Monthly Review Press, 2007), 340.

[8] Li Zhang, The Origins of COVID-19: China and Global Capitalism (Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 2021), 34.

[9] Zhaohai Bai et al., “China’s Livestock Transition: Driving Forces, Impacts, and Consequences,” Science Advances 4, no. 7 (July 6, 2018): 7.

[10] Bai et al., “China’s Livestock Transition.”

[11] Karl Marx, “The Future Results of British Rule in India,” Marxist Internet Archive.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2024/0 ... evolution/

*****

Balancing Green Goals and Financial Realities: Labour’s Net Zero Dilemma
Posted on July 1, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. As much as post about UK climate change policy might seem a tad parochial, microcosms can provide insight about macro issues. The fact that this article comes from a financial organ, City A.M., does not necessarily make its depiction less valid. In many different ways, the overwhelming majority of the citizens of advanced economies are making clear that they are unwilling to make even comparatively modest sacrifices to prevent worst climate outcomes. This posture, as we’ve said repeatedly, has been enabled by Green New Deal advocates, who have persistently engaged in climate cakeism: the bogus notion that better shopping, tax incentives and disincentives, and creating new infrastructure (which has environmental costs) will allow us to preserve nearly all of our current lifestyles while saving the planet.

The reality is that only very radical curtailment of energy and resource consumption could conceivably achieve that. In other words, our advanced economy lifestyles are soon to be over. The question is whether is whether societies as a whole or communities within them get in front of the problem of what to cut and what to keep to make the transition less calamitous, or whether governments react as unplanned breakdowns occur more and more often.

The press continues to deliver hair-tearing stories that confirm we are ruled by greedy, short-sighted morons. The lead story in the Wall Street Journal today is Tech Industry Wants to Lock Up Nuclear Power for AI:

Tech companies scouring the country for electricity supplies have zeroed in on a key target: America’s nuclear-power plants.

The owners of roughly a third of U.S. nuclear-power plants are in talks with tech companies to provide electricity to new data centers needed to meet the demands of an artificial-intelligence boom.

Among them, Amazon Web Services is nearing a deal for electricity supplied directly from a nuclear plant on the East Coast with Constellation Energy, the largest owner of U.S. nuclear-power plants, according to people familiar with the matter. In a separate deal in March, the Amazon.com subsidiary purchased a nuclear-powered data center in Pennsylvania for $650 million.


So instead of treating energy as a scarce commodity and making sure uses critical to collective survival get first dibs, instead we have rapacious squillionaires securing supplies to foist more humanity-dumbing-down AI on us. Frankly, we humans entirely deserve the bad outcomes we are creating. The sad part is we are taking a lot of innocent species along with us.

By CityAM.com, the online presence of City A.M., London’s first free daily business newspaper. Cross posted from OilPrice

With the election just one week away, Labour’s pledge to “make Britain a clean energy superpower” has sparked a debate on whether or not their net zero scheme is actually achievable.

Sir Keir Starmer revealed that Labour’s transition team is considering setting up an office for Net Zero, should they win the election, in order to reach their target of decarbonising the electricity grid by 2030, five years before the Conservatives. The party plans to allocate £28bn each year towards climate initiatives, citing economic limitations and emphasising the importance of fiscal responsibility.

But the costly ambition of this net zero roadmap has triggered discussions within the party about finding a balance between environmental goals and financial caution.

This 2030 deadline will be achieved with the creation of Great British energy, a publicly-owned clean power company aimed at strengthening energy security and cutting bills, which will be funded by increasing the windfall tax on oil and gas companies, and then preventing them from lowering their windfall tax bill.

Labour’s net zero secretary, Ed Miliband, believes that the 2030 target is attainable and an essential step towards a green economy.

However, the policy does not appear to be convincing everyone.

Javier Cavada, the European boss of Mitsubishi Power, argues that the party’s plan has little chance of success and said that the focus should be on creating “a path that is realistic, affordable and achievable”.

Despite Labour declaring that its schemes will ultimately decrease the price of energy bills, Cavada is not entirely convinced that less than six years will be enough time to achieve this. He fears that the project will also be extremely expensive and questions whether the whole country and its industries will be able to invest in it.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe, CEO of INEOS, also voiced his concern for Labour’s “absurd” manifesto, claiming that their policy will only lead to the UK importing their energy from overseas.

Electricity demand is expected to rise from currently around 300 terawatt hours per year to about 360 terawatt hours by 2030, and Ratcliffe said that the 2030 goal will increase the risks of energy crises and electricity shortages as it will coincide with the expected closure of most of the UK’s remaining nuclear power stations.

The GMB Union has said that the net zero plans will lead to “power cuts and blackouts”, tarnishing the reputation of the party and it is insisting that Labour reconsider their manifesto.

Sharon Graham, leader of the Unite trade union, said if Labour follows through with their proposal to ban new drilling licences in the North Sea, it could result in oil and gas workers becoming “the coal miners of this generation”.

The Conservatives say they will continue licensing oil and gas production in the North Sea as they plan a slower transition to renewables. The move has come under considerable criticism. Ex-Tory MP Chris Skidmore revealed earlier this year that he would now be supporting Labour because he refused to support “a party that has boasted of new oil and gas licences in its manifesto”.

Nevertheless, the Tories still aim to reach net zero by 2035, and this transition will be aided by tripling offshore wind capacity, building a new carbon capture facility, expanding nuclear power and adding new gas power stations to support renewables.

The party claims it is taking a more ‘pragmatic’ approach in cutting consumers’ costs and limiting the creation of any green levies on household bills.

The Labour Party has recently received backlash from the Conservatives’ Energy secretary Claire Coutinho, who claimed a ban on North Sea oil and gas will result in large tax hikes for workers, and that this would only “accelerate the worsening climate crisis”.

She defined the opposing party’s policies as “a triple whammy on the UK: jobs lost, higher taxes and investment destroyed."

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... lemma.html

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Reports on Heat Waves and Flooding Usually Neglect to Explain Why They’re Happening: Study
OLIVIA RIGGIO
Reports on Heat Waves and Flooding Usually Neglect to Explain Why They’re Happening: Study

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Heated (6/27/24): “Most mainstream outlets continue to write about these lethal, record-breaking events as if they were merely acts of God.”
This month brought yet another record-breaking spate of flash floods and deadly heatwaves across the US. Yet, as a new study by Heated (6/27/24) reveals, despite ample reporting on these events, a majority of news outlets still did not link these events to their cause: climate change.

Emily Atkin and Arielle Samuelson, writers for the climate-focused, Substack-based outlet, analyzed 133 digital breaking news articles from national, international and regional outlets reporting on this month’s extreme weather. Just 44% mentioned the climate crisis or global warming. Broken down by weather event: 52% of stories that covered heatwaves, and only 25% of stories that covered extreme rainfall, mentioned climate change.

As Atkin and Samuelson write, by now we know that climate change is the main cause of both extreme heat and extreme flooding. And we know the biggest contributor of climate-disrupting greenhouse gasses: fossil fuels, which account for about 75% of global emissions annually.

Still, the study’s authors found, only 11% of the articles they studied mentioned fossil fuels. Only one piece (BBC, 6/24/24) mentioned deforestation, which scientists say contributes about 20% of annual greenhouse gas emissions. None mentioned animal agriculture, which the FAO estimates contributes about 12% of global emissions.

Stark omissions
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This New York Post story (6/21/24) had no mention of climate change, but it did have Fox Weather meteorologist Stephen McCloud’s reassurance that “it’s not record-breaking heat.”
The omissions were laughably stark: A New York Post piece (6/21/24) ended with a New Yorker and former Marine who said he’d been in “way hotter conditions”—in Kuwait and Iraq. An AP article (6/4/24) quoted the “explanation” offered by a spokesperson for the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management: “It does seem like Mother Nature is turning up the heat on us a little sooner than usual.”

Heated recognized some outlets that consistently mentioned climate change in their breaking coverage of heat and floods this month. That list included NPR, Vox, Axios, BBC and Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Then there were the outlets whose breaking coverage never mentioned it: ABC News, USA Today, The Hill, the New York Post and Fox Weather. When questioned, many of these outlets pointed the study’s authors to other climate coverage they had done, but this study’s focus on breaking news stories was deliberate:

Our analysis focused only on breaking stories because climate change is not a follow-up story; it is the story of the lethal and economically devastating extreme weather playing out across the country. To not mention climate change in a breaking news story about record heat in June 2024 is like not mentioning Covid-19 in a breaking news article about record hospitalizations in March 2020. It’s an abdication of journalistic responsibility to inform.

Explaining isn’t hard
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The Washington Post (6/13/24) noted that two recent extreme rains in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, “bear the fingerprint of human-caused climate change, which is increasing the intensity and severity of top-tier rain events.”
A crucial takeaway for journalists and editors in this piece is that explaining the cause of these weather events isn’t hard. It’s often a matter of adding a sentence at most, Atkin and Samuelson write. They provide examples of stories that successfully made this connection, as with BBC (6/24/24):

say extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense as a result of human-caused climate change, fueled by activities like burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests.

Or the Guardian (6/23/24):

Heatwaves are becoming more severe and prolonged due to the global climate crisis, caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels.

Notably, the Guardian piece was a reprint of an AP article that did not originally include that sentence; Heated confirmed that it was added by a Guardian editor.

AP, however, was sometimes able to provide appropriate context, as in a June 21 piece:

This month’s sizzling daytime temperatures were 35 times more likely and 2.5 degrees F hotter (1.4 degrees C) because of the warming from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas—in other words, human-caused climate change.

More denial than acknowledgment
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FAIR (7/18/23): “By disconnecting climate change causes and consequences, media outlets shield the fossil fuel industry and the politicians who aid and abet them.”
During last summer’s apocalyptic orange haze on the East Coast, caused by record Canadian wildfires, I conducted a similar study (FAIR.org, 7/18/23) on US TV news’s coverage. Out of 115 segments, only 38% mentioned climate change’s role. Of those 115, 10 mentioned it in passing, 10 engaged in climate denial and 12 gave a brief explanation without alluding to the reality that climate change is human-caused. Only five segments acknowledged that climate change was human caused, and just seven fully fleshed out the fact that the main cause of the climate crisis is fossil fuels.

When there are more segments denying climate change than acknowledging fossil fuels’ role in it, you know there’s a problem.

This year, I noticed coverage of worldwide coral bleaching that did make the appropriate connections (FAIR.org, 5/17/24). As Atkin and Samuelson emphasized, the difference between careless and responsible reporting on this issue is often just a few words.

https://fair.org/home/reports-on-heat-w ... ing-study/

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Regulation to drive development of rare-earth sector

Regulation: Rare-earth element tracking system proposed
By Cheng Yu | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2024-07-01 00:02


China's approval of a major regulation on rare-earth elements is of strategic significance in promoting the sector's green and high-quality development, amid rising demand for these raw materials in emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, industry experts and company executives said on Sunday.

Their comments came after the country approved on Saturday its new regulation on mining, smelting and trading of rare-earth metals and alloys, which are chemical elements indispensable to low-carbon technologies, such as the production of electric vehicles, as well as in the manufacturing of smartphones and other advanced high-tech products.

The regulation, issued by the State Council, China's Cabinet, said the country will encourage and support the research, development and application of new technologies, products, materials and equipment in the rare-earth industry.

The Chinese government will make "unified planning" for the development of the rare-earth sector, and pay equal attention to the protection of resources and the development and utilization of such resources, according to the new regulation, which will take effect on Oct 1.

Ge Honglin, Party secretary and president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that rare-earth elements, often referred to as "industrial vitamins", are crucial raw materials for high-tech industries and the national defense sector.

"China's rare-earth industry faces challenges in areas such as protective resource development, original technological innovation and industry order regulation," Ge said, adding that the new regulation addresses these challenges.

China has been making significant contributions to meeting domestic and international demand for these crucial chemical elements, which in turn is creating considerable pressure on the country's natural resources, Ge said.

Last year, China accounted for about 60 percent of global rare-earth mining and close to 90 percent of processing and refining, according to the International Energy Agency.

The new regulation underscores the need for protective resource development and calls for planned utilization of rare-earth elements, in order to drive green and high-quality development of the sector, Ge said.

The regulation also outlined punitive measures for illegal mining of rare-earth elements. Such materials belong to the country and any organization or individual trying to acquire these through illegal means will be punished, it said.

A rare-earth element tracking system has been proposed in the regulation. Companies involved in mining, smelting and separation of rare-earth elements, as well as in the export of products made with the help of such elements, will now have to establish a system to record the flow of their products.

Liu Peixun, deputy general manager of Baogang Group, one of the world's largest production and research bases for rare-earth elements based in North China's Inner Mongolia autonomous region, said it was the first time that the country was regulating the development and utilization of rare-earth resources through legislation, which will be a "milestone" regulation for companies.

"Inspired by such efforts, our company will strive to make the process of rare-earth production more eco-friendly, make related equipment smarter and upgrade related technologies, in order to increase the added value of rare-earth products," he said, noting that the company sincerely supports China's industrial transformation.

Liu added that Baogang Group is also stepping up efforts to help build a national-level trade center for rare-earth elements.

http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/20240 ... 0b8b3.html

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Make no mistake, it's the Capitalism.
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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:42 pm

Mexico Scores Major Victory Against Bayer-Owned Monsanto As Corn War With US Reaches Pivotal Moment
Posted on July 2, 2024 by Nick Corbishley

“Reason has ultimately prevailed in favour of life, health, nature, biodiversity and food sovereignty.”

After a four-year legal battle on multiple fronts with Mexico’s AMLO government, Monsanto has finally thrown in the towel. Last Tuesday, Mexico’s National Council of Humanities, Sciences and Technologies (Conahcyt) announced that two Mexican divisions of Monsanto — now subsidiaries of German chemicals giant, Bayer, which in 2018 acquired Monsanto in arguably the worst ever corporate merger — had dropped their law suits against the Mexican government over its intention to ban genetically modified corn.

As readers may recall, Mexico’s outgoing President Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador signed a presidential decree in 2020 seeking to ban all use and importation of GMO corn and the toxic weedkiller, glyphosate. His government has also placed import restrictions on white corn, which is generally used for human consumption in Mexico. The reasons cited for doing so include protecting the health of the population, the environment and Mexico’s genetic diversity of maize.

But this is not just about biotech. It is about increasing Mexican food sovereignty by reducing the threat of unfair US competition in the global corn market. As even the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, an international affairs think tank, recently conceded, US corn has dominated Mexico over the past three decades for one main reason: thanks to NAFTA, the scales have been stacked in the favour of US growers:

[T]he main reason US corn dominates the market is because the federal government heavily subsidizes corn production, to the point where American corn can be sold at prices well below the cost of production. Mexico has no such policies. In fact, the Mexican government eliminated nearly all price support for its agricultural sector as a part of NAFTA. As a result, US corn flooded the market, causing corn prices to plummet by as much as 66 percent.This drop forced many Mexican producers out of business.

In response to the AMLO government’s proposed ban on GMO corn, global agrochemical companies and seed manufacturers, including Bayer, and the Mexican lobbying associations that tirelessly represent their interests (Proccyt, AC and the National Agricultural Council) unleashed a wave of over 30 amparos (judicial protective orders) aiming to declare the decree unconstitutional. However, the vast majority of these trials have been concluded with rulings unfavourable to the companies involved or their lobbying associations.

A Rare Exception

But one of the cases filed by Monsanto/Bayer offered a rare exception. In 2022, Judge Francisco Rebolledo Peña ruled in favor of Monsanto with (in the words of the Mexican pro-government media outlet Regeneración) “a controversial, contradictory and partial ruling that ignored the evidence provided by the authorities.” That ruling was swiftly appealed by the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (Semarnat), the Federal Commission for Protection against Sanitary Risks (Cofepris) and Conahyct.

In the resulting trial, Conahcyt provided scientific and legal defences, presenting more than 250 pieces of evidence to support the government’s 2020 decree. The appeal ultimately resulted in Mexico’s Fourth Collegiate Court on Administrative Matters rejecting Monsanto’s arguments, citing human rights and environmental safety concerns.

In 2023, Monsanto filed another lawsuit, this time against AMLO’s modified decree which allowed the use of GMO corn in animal feed and the making of consumer products like cosmetics, textiles and paper while maintaining a ban on GM corn for human consumption, particularly in the use of making flour for tortillas, which are a staple of the Mexican diet. The changes to the law meant it would have limited impact on Mexican imports of US corn, at least during the short to medium term, since most of those imports are already used “for fodder and industrial uses.”

This later amparo was also shot down, this time by Judge Elizabeth Trejo Galán who in her ruling underscored the precedence of public over private interest (what a quaint notion!).

Last week, Monsanto’s owner, Bayer, finally threw in the towel altogether by withdrawing all of its legal challenges against the 2020 presidential decree. Conahcyt described Bayer’s retreat as a major legal victory for Mexico in which “reason ultimately prevailed in favour of life, health, nature, biodiversity and food sovereignty.” Noting that the legal victory over Monsanto highlights Mexico’s commitment to safeguarding public health and environmental integrity, Conahcyt pledged to continue working to ensure that GM corn and glyphosate are removed from the Mexican food supply.

A Four-Year Corn War

There is still plenty of work to do as Mexico’s four-year “Corn War” with its two USMCA partners, the United States and Canada, reaches a pivotal moment. As readers may recall, in August 2023 the US escalated its food fight with Mexico by calling for the formation of a dispute settlement panel under the USMCA North American trade deal to determine whether AMLO’s 2023 decree undermines the market access Mexico’s government agreed to provide in the USMCA.” Canada quickly joined the US’s dispute against Mexico.

We are now in the closing stages of this process. After hearing arguments from the Mexican and U.S. governments, as well as technical opinions from non-governmental entities, the three-member panel is scheduled to release its preliminary and final reports in Autumn. Last week, Mexico published its closing argument in the dispute, the English translation of which readers can assess here. It is 264 pages long and I have only had time to read the first 55 paragraphs (out of 633). Here are some key excerpts from that early section:

On the US government’s lack of science-based arguments:

“Mexico has demonstrated throughout this controversy that there are legitimate concerns related to risks to human health and the diversity of native maize derived from the consumption of GM maize and has presented the scientific basis for these concerns, which will be addressed in detail throughout this paper. Mexico is protecting its population, which basically subsists on corn, as it is legally obliged to do so. The United States superficially analyzes and criticizes the evidence and risk assessment prepared by Mexico, but in its criticisms, it does not present arguments backed by science to support its position, but simply disqualifies with adjectives.”

On the US government’s preference for data from old, industry-conducted scientific trials:

First, the United States appears to argue that authorizations for GM corn events that have
been previously issued by Cofepris [Mexico’s Ministry of Health] and other authorities, such as the FDA and EPA, prevent Mexico from modifying its conclusions about the safety of GM corn consumption and the health risks associated with direct consumption, as well as the risks to biodiversity and corn diversity (which includes native varieties). This is incorrect…

The United States cannot freeze the ability of Mexican authorities to protect its population
from the risks posed by GM corn and glyphosate based solely on those authorizations. Such action would be tantamount to ignoring, without reasonable justification, the scientific evidence, free of conflict of interest and available to date, that was presented by Mexico in the “Scientific Record on Glyphosate and GM Crops” (2020), prepared by Conahcyt, and the collection of relevant studies in the National Biosafety Information System (SNIB) maintained by Cibiogem.

On the other hand, the FDA assessment identified by the United States in footnote 34 of its
Rebuttal Submission were conducted, for the most part, between 1996 and 2002. These
assessments not only do not take into account the updated scientific evidence confirming the risks of GM corn identified by Mexico, but are part of voluntary consultation procedures that are based on information that is selected by the biotechnology developers themselves seeking authorization and do not contemplate an analysis of stacked events and their possible effects.

On the risk of genetic contamination:

“[In its arguments] the United States ignores the fact that the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) itself has pointed out that “genetic modifications of plants are likely to be more complex perhaps involving multiple between-species transfers and this may lead to an increased chance of unintended effects … the possible implications of the differences with respect to health need to be considered”. This is a core part of the risks identified by Mexico.”

On US attempts to underplay role of glyphosate in cultivation of GMO corn for Mexico’s market (that’s right, the US government is essentially arguing that the rapidly rising health and environmental concerns about glyphosate, the toxic weedkiller that has already set back Bayer around $20 billion in payment penalties and litigation costs since 2018, the year it bought Monsanto, and could end up bankrupting the Germany company, should have no bearing whatsoever on Mexico’s right to ban GMO corn and glyphosate):

“The United States argues that the damages arising from the application and general use of glyphosate are not relevant for this dispute. This is incorrect. As Mexico explained in its Initial Submission, the challenged measures are part of, and contribute to the objectives contained in the Decree 2023, which are related to the use of glyphosate. Mexico explained in its Initial Submission that there is a clear relationship between GM crops and the increase in the use of herbicides such as glyphosate and that, the main function of GM corn events imported into Mexico is to tolerate herbicides, specifically glyphosate.”

On risks to human health:

In the factual section of the United States’ Rebuttal Submission, the evidence presented by Mexico is described, in terms of health risks, as imprecise and ambiguous as if mere adjectives were sufficient to dismiss the scientific results presented by Mexico… Mexico presented more than a hundred scientific articles that provide evidence of the risks to health associated with the consumption of GM corn. The majority of these articles were superficially commented on by the United States in Annex I of its Rebuttal Submission, with a few exceptions. This can be considered a tacit acceptance of the conclusions stated in these articles or a lack of evidence to counter Mexico’s arguments.

In its closing statements, the Mexican government “argues persuasively… that it has the right to take such precautionary measures under the trade agreement, that the measures have had minimal impacts on U.S. corn exporters and that its restrictions are indeed based on peer-reviewed science documenting the risks of consuming GM corn with glyphosate residues,” argues Timothy A Wise, a senior adviser at the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (IATP). “These risks are particularly elevated for Mexicans, who consume more than 10 times the corn consumed in the U.S. and do so in minimally processed preparations, such as tortillas.”

But Mexico is still not quite ready for life without glyphosate. In March, the AMLO government suspended its ban on the weedkiller just days before it was due to come into effect. From our article, A Battered Bayer Breathes Sigh of Relief As Mexico Suspends Its Long-Awaited Ban on Glyphosate Weedkiller:

On April 1, 2024, Mexico’s government was supposed to make history by banning the world’s most notorious weedkiller. On that day, a presidential decree prohibiting the production, importation, distribution and use of glyphosate, the active ingredient of Bayer’s Roundup weedkiller, on Mexican soil was to finally come into effect. But it was not to be. On Tuesday (March 26), just five days before the big day, Mexico’s government suspended the ban arguing that there is no immediate way to replace the herbicide and that safeguarding Mexico’s food security must override all other concerns…

Mexico’s AMLO government still considers glyphosate to be harmful to human health and the environment, but it fears that Mexican farmers aren’t ready to make the shift just yet. Many farmers and so-called “scientific experts” in Mexico have warned that there is no alternative (TINA) to glyphosate and that its ban could imperil the country’s grain production. Mexico’s imports of GMO corn from the US, rather than falling, reached record levels last year, in part due to a severe drought across many key growing regions.

Industry influence and lobbying almost certainly played a part in the government’s climb down. Days before the government announced its policy reversal, two senators of AMLO’s governing party, MORENA, proposed suspending implementation of the decree on glyphosate due to the lack of alternatives or sustainable practices that will allow the country to maintain the country’s agricultural production.” The proposal was rejected by the senate and lambasted by consumer groups, including the campaign group Sin Maiz No Hay País.

But the AMLO government is not willing to abandon its ban on the use and importation of GMO corn for human use. Nor, apparently, is the incoming Claudia Sheinbaum government, whose proposed agriculture minister, Julio Berdegue, has pledged to honour AMLO’s 2023 decree.

This may be an important battle for Big Ag lobbies and biotech companies but it is an existential one for Mexico, for whom corn is the cornerstone not only of its cuisine and diet but also its culture. The multi-decades struggle to keep Mexico (largely) GMO-free is a grassroots one. The bans on field trials of GMO corn instituted by a few brave judges just over a decade ago would never have happened if it weren’t for the campaigning efforts and legal actions brought by scientists and NGOs like the “Sin Maíz No Hay País” (Without Maize There is No Country) campaign, the Alliance for Food Health and the Maiz Class Lawsuit.

These same organisations recently gathered over 110,000 signatures in less than two weeks for a letter urging the three trade dispute panellists to listen to the opinions of Mexican society, as well as sectors of American and Canadian society that support bio-cultural diversity and healthy eating.”

A Global Issue

The letter, which was also sent to representatives of the governments of Mexico and the United States, argues that no risk analyses or scientific studies have as yet been performed to evaluate the potential health impact of consuming genetically modified corn in volumes typical of a country like Mexico. Mexican citizens consume, on average, 11 times more corn than their US counterparts. In the absence of scientific certainty, the letter says, the precautionary principle should be applied and protective measures adopted for consumers and ecosystems.

The letter also makes the case that the decision taken by the three trade dispute panellists in the Fall could end up affecting not just Mexico or North America but the entire world:

Scientific research… has already detected genetic contamination of native Mexican varieties with genes from modified varieties imported from the United States. This contamination puts Mexico’s biocultural diversity at risk. To the extent that our country serves as an immense living and [regularly] updated seed bank for the rest of humanity, genetic contamination also puts at risk the planting of maize in many different latitudes around the world.

As the center of origin, domestication and constant diversification of maize, Mexico is in a position to offer the rest of the world maize that is adapted to extreme environmental conditions, such as those accentuated by climate change. In this context, the contamination of native varieties may affect not only consumers in Mexico, but worldwide.

The outcome of this trade dispute could have global ramifications in another way: if the panellists end up ruling in Mexico’s favour (admittedly a big “IF” given all the corporate dollars at stake), it could set a legal precedent. That, in turn, could encourage other countries to impose similar bans on the cultivation or importation of GMO crops. And that is the last thing the world’s agrochemical giants want.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... oment.html

Biden’s De Facto EV Mandate at Risk After Supreme Court ‘Chevron’ Ruling
Posted on July 2, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. Because so much has happened in the last week, between the Biden legitimacy crisis triggered by his poor debate performance, a series of major Supreme Court rulings, and the Ukraine and Israel conflicts (and related jousting), we are behind in drilling into one of these critically importing Supreme Court ruling, the Chevron decision. The article below gives a flavor of how it vitiates a great deal of regulatory authority, and specifically increases the difficulty of limiting greenhouse gas output.

By Charles Price, a writer at OilPrice. Originally published at OilPrice

Biden’s strict tailpipe emissions standard has become vulnerable due to the Supreme Court decision on the Chevron Deference.
The ruling adds to already heated debates about whether the EPA has authority to regulate emissions from vehicles.
The U.S. top court ruling will have wide-reaching implications for the oil and gas industry because it will make it more difficult for federal agencies to regulate the environment and public health.
The Biden Administration’s new strict tailpipe emission standards have just become particularly vulnerable after the Supreme Court overturned last week a 40-year-old landmark ruling, known as the ‘Chevron deference’, which granted federal agencies the authority to interpret ambiguous laws.

The precedent, set in 1984 in a case involving the oil giant, gave federal agencies more power to interpret ambiguous laws. But last Friday’s Supreme Court ruling will strip federal agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), from the power of interpreting laws, such as the Clean Air Act, and how to apply them.

The U.S. top court ruling will have wide-reaching implications for the oil and gas industry because it will make it more difficult for federal agencies to regulate the environment and public health, based on their interpretation of ambiguous laws.

The tailpipe emissions limits, which the EPA finalized just a few weeks ago, look especially vulnerable in light of the Supreme Court ruling, environmental law attorneys have told Reuters.

In March, the EPA announced the finalization of new tailpipe emission standards. The agency boasted that these were the strictest standards ever, adding that they would save money, create jobs, and eliminate billions of tons of CO2 emissions.

The ruling adds to already heated debates about whether the EPA has authority to regulate emissions from vehicles, they said.

“There have been longstanding debates about whether and to what extent the (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) has the authority to regulate emissions from mobile sources,” Sherry Jackman, an environmental litigator and compliance counselor at Greenberg Glusker in Los Angeles, told Reuters.

Even before the Supreme Court ruling last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) challenged the new tailpipe emissions rules in court.

API sued the EPA over the vehicle emission standards, with Senior Vice President and General Counsel Ryan Meyers saying that “EPA has exceeded its congressional authority with this regulation that will eliminate most new gas cars and traditional hybrids from the U.S. market in less than a decade.”

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... uling.html

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Image
School students striking for climate justice, Westminster, February 2019. (Photo: Facebook/Nottingham People’s Assembly)

Emissions increase as climate disaster intensifies
By John Clarke (Posted Jul 04, 2024)

Originally published: Counterfire on June 29, 2024 (more by Counterfire) |

A new report has been issued by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, a scientific body that ‘conducts rapid-attribution studies on weather events around the world to look at the role climate change has played in their severity.’ After comparing the extreme heat that occurred in the U.S., Mexico and Central America between May and early June with ‘models of what would have likely occurred in a world not subjected to human-induced global warming,’ the report arrives at some deeply disturbing conclusions.

The WWA suggests that ‘climate change made [this] extreme heat… around 35 times more likely’ and that ‘such a heatwave was now four times more likely than it was in the year 2000, driven by planet-warming emissions.’ The drafters of the report also inform us that potentially ‘deadly and record-breaking temperatures are occurring more and more frequently in the U.S., Mexico and Central America due to climate change.’

During the heatwave, ‘the hottest five-day stretch across the region in June was made about 1.4C warmer by climate change.’ Based on this, Karina Izquierdo, Urban Advisor for the Latin American and Caribbean region at Red Cross Climate Centre, warned that the ‘additional 1.4C of heat caused by climate change would have been the difference between life and death for many people during May and June.’

In this regard, ‘Mexican officials have linked the heatwave to the deaths of scores of people’ and the WWA points out that the situation is especially dangerous when temperatures remain exceptionally high at night, since ‘the body does not have time to rest and recover.’ The WWA warns that as ‘long as humans fill the atmosphere with fossil fuel emissions, the heat will only get worse—vulnerable people will continue to die and the cost of living will continue to increase.’

Supercharged conditions
This particular episode of extreme heat took place within the broader context of prolonged drought and greatly disturbed weather patterns, as developments in June in the U.S. state of New Mexico demonstrate all too convincingly. The Guardian reports that just ‘days after a pair of fast-moving fires roared across drought-stricken landscapes and into communities, a tropical storm swirled north, unleashing downpours and golf-ball-sized hail over scorched slopes that had only just burned.’

While it is true that ‘weather patterns like these aren’t unheard of… the climate crisis has supercharged extreme conditions, setting the stage for new types of catastrophes that are increasing in both intensity and frequency.’ Indeed, even as emergency crews in New Mexico struggled to deal with the combination of fire and flood, ‘the gusty winds kicked up a wall of dust that stretched hundreds of miles long’ and that led to a multiple car pile-up.

Ali Rye, the state director of New Mexico’s department of homeland security and emergency management, noted that ‘the number of state-declared disasters in New Mexico has quadrupled since 2019.’ She told the Guardian that ‘We are seeing an increase in the impacts to our state in various ways and it has become increasingly challenging over the last couple of years [and] we are not out of the clear yet.’

WWA has also reported on the extreme heat that was already impacting a large swathe of Asia from ‘Israel, Palestine, Lebanon and Syria, in the West, to Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines in the East’ in May of this year. It notes that while the ‘death toll [from heatwaves] is often underreported, hundreds of deaths have been reported already in most of the affected countries… The heat also had a large impact on agriculture, causing crop damage and reduced yields, as well as on education, with holidays having to be extended and schools closed in several countries, affecting millions of students.’

The WWA’s findings on the situation in Asia were consistent with the conclusions it drew in the case of the U.S., Mexico and Central America. It notes that in ‘terms of intensity, we estimate that a heatwave such as this one in West Asia is today about 1.7°C warmer than it would have been without the burning of fossil fuels.’ Moreover, ‘we observe a strong climate change signal in the 2024 April mean temperature. We find that these extreme temperatures are now about 45 times more likely and 0.85ºC hotter. These results align with our previous studies, where we found that climate change made the extreme heat about 30 times more likely and 1ºC hotter.’

There is no question that intensifying episodes of extreme heat are a particularly deadly manifestation of the climate disaster. The CBC reports that we’re ‘only halfway through 2024, yet the global death toll from surging temperatures has been staggering, and a clearer picture is now emerging of extreme heat as one of the deadly emergencies facing regions around the world.’ It further notes that, in a twelve-month period up until May of this year, ‘6.3 billion people–roughly 78 per cent of the population–experienced at least 31 days of extreme heat that were “made at least two times more likely due to human-caused climate change’’.’

As these terrible impacts take their toll, the ‘world’s consumption of fossil fuels climbed to a record high last year, driving emissions to more than 40 gigatonnes of CO2 for the first time, according to a global energy report.’ In addition to this, we learn that ‘fossil fuels made up 81.5% of the world’s primary energy last year, down only marginally from 82% the year before.’ Despite dire warnings from scientists and an abundance of empty promises from political leaders, a peak in global carbon emissions has not yet occurred.

A series of Marxist writers have noted that the competitive drive to accumulate that is fundamental to capitalism is at odds with the containment of fossil-fuel use and the goal of a sustainable relationship with the natural world. Michael Roberts has commented recently on the threat to profit making that a transfer to renewable-energy sources represents. The titans of fossil-fuel capitalism are well aware of this.

Roberts points out that JP Morgan bank economists have suggested that transition to renewable energy ‘is a process that should be measured in decades, or generations, not years.’ This is because such a transition to sustainable alternatives ‘currently offers subpar returns.’ Shell CEO, Wael Sawan, put things as clearly as possible with his defiant declaration that ‘we will drive for strong returns in any business we go into… Our shareholders deserve [this]… Absolutely, we want to continue to go for lower and lower and lower carbon, but it has to be profitable.’

Role of the state
If fossil-fuel capitalists and bankers are going to place profits ahead of preserving the conditions that sustain life on this planet, it might be wondered if those who wield state power can be trusted to protect capitalism from its own worst instincts by ensuring that carbon emissions are brought under control. It is true that the state sometimes restrains the most reckless and damaging conduct of capitalists and grants limited rights and protections to workers, tenants, consumers, etc. However, the last few years have produced some sobering evidence as to how far state power will actually be used to put social well-being above profit making.

During the Covid pandemic, notions of creating ‘herd immunity’ by allowing the population to become widely infected, proved unsustainable and lockdowns became unavoidable. Yet, despite evidence that longer-term economic stability required sustained measures to preserve public health, the Boris Johnson ‘let the bodies pile high’ approach to preserving short-term profits asserted itself again and again at a terrible cost. Similarly, the most powerful Western governments protected the interests of Big Pharma by ensuring that no patent waiver would be implemented to provide adequate access to vaccines in the Global South.

The same consideration is at work, on an even more catastrophic scale, when it comes to the mounting impacts of climate change. The increase in episodes of extreme heat is only one particularly lethal expression of the effects of carbon emissions. Yet, in the face of this dreadful situation, ‘world leaders’ gather at one international summit after another to mouth empty platitudes about the need to transition to sustainable forms of economic activity. As they do so, far from the drastic reductions in emissions that are desperately needed, they actually continue to increase.

It is abundantly clear that placing hopes on the ‘self-regulating’ efforts of fossil-fuel interests and expecting responsible conduct on the part of those in power is a failed strategy. Powerful and united mass action is the only means of curtailing carbon emissions and ensuring that populations aren’t abandoned as the impacts of the climate crisis continue to inensify.

https://mronline.org/2024/07/04/emissio ... tensifies/#

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[img]https://caitlinjohnstone.com.au/wp-cont ... w=1024[img]

This Civilization Is Deeply Unnatural

There is nothing natural about this. The way things are. The way we are living. If this was the natural and healthy way for human society to exist, it wouldn’t require mountains of propaganda spin to keep it going.

Caitlin Johnstone
July 4, 2024



There is nothing natural about this. The way things are. The way we are living. If this was the natural and healthy way for human society to exist, it wouldn’t require mountains of propaganda spin to keep it going.

Without copious amounts of mental narratives being fed to us by people in power, it would never occur to anyone that it’s a good or normal idea to commit to wars of aggression on the other side of the planet, or to back genocides, or to militarize globally with hundreds of military outposts around the world, or to foster systems which allow a few people to have far too much while others have far too little, or to destroy the biosphere we depend on for survival for the sake of shareholder profits. It would never occur to us to accept these things if we weren’t living our lives saturated in a nonstop barrage of narratives explaining that we should accept them.

We live like this throughout our entire lives. Through mass-scale psychological manipulation our minds are twisted into freakish and unnatural shapes to ensure that we will think, speak, act, work, spend and vote in ways we would never otherwise would, all to keep the wheels of this freakish and unnatural dystopia turning. If the powerful did not control the dominant narratives of this civilization, we would be living in a very different world than the one we live in today.

Narrative is how humans tend to get themselves into trouble. The believed thought stories in our minds are what drive us to hate, abuse, harm and kill our fellow humans. They’re what drive us into a state of anxiety even in moments when our bodies are completely safe and all our material needs are being met. They’re what have convinced humans to march out and fight wars and commit atrocities throughout the ages. Most of human suffering ultimately arises from believed thought stories.

But believed thought stories are what shape this civilization. The only reason why power exists where it exists, why nations and their borders exist as they do, why money operates the way that it operates, why laws are written and obeyed, is because we’ve all agreed to believe a bunch of made-up narratives saying that these things are true. Tomorrow Americans could all agree that Taylor Swift is the Dictator Supreme of the United States and that copper pennies are the only form of money with any value, and if enough people believed those narratives, those narratives would become reality.

That’s the power of narrative, and that’s why powerful people pour so much energy into harnessing it. Through the power of narrative, we can be convinced to consent to things as absurd as weapons contractors using their wealth to lobby for wars and militarism, which gives them more wealth that they can then spend on more lobbying. Or working forty hours a week making our boss far more money than we get paid in a company that’s killing our ecosystem just so that we can give our paychecks to some landlord in order to live in a building on the dying planet we were born on, solely because the boss and the landlord happened to luck into owning the company and the building. Or world leaders brandishing armageddon weapons at one another.

This backwards, insane civilization only looks normal to us because it has been deliberately normalized throughout our lives via careful narrative control by the people who benefit from it. Narrative rules our lives.

Without any believed narrative in your head, there’s just peaceful being with what is, and the human animal body tending to its few human animal needs. Add in a bunch of believed narrative and then all of a sudden you’ve got a self, others, desires, agendas, enemies, social standing, goals, inadequacy, stress, a painful past and a frightening future.

It is possible for the human organism to live without believed narratives in the shift in perception commonly known as spiritual enlightenment, and it is possible for humans as a whole to drop the believed narratives that are being imposed on us by the powerful in the same way. And just as enlightenment brings with it the realization that the old way of perceiving was actually an unnatural way of operating, awakening from the dominant narratives of our day will allow us to move into a much more natural way of existing with each other and with our ecosystem on this planet.

You can call this a lofty and unattainable goal if you want, but to me I’m just talking about the one and only adaptation that has any chance of steering our species away from annihilation. Every species hits an adaptation-or-extinction juncture at some point in its existence, and we’re arriving at ours right now. We’ll either transcend our unhealthy relationship with narrative, or we’ll wipe ourselves out via nuclear war or environmental destruction.

Every sign I’m seeing right now suggests we have the ability to go either way.

https://caitlinjohnstone.com.au/2024/07 ... unnatural/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Mon Jul 08, 2024 2:51 pm

Carbon offsets are undermining real climate action
July 3, 2024
Offsetting allows corporations to increase emissions, while getting credit for pseudo-reductions elsewhere

Image

This statement, published on July 2, 2024, responds to the growing efforts of corporations to greenwash their greenhouse gas emissions by buying “credits” for supposed emission reductions elsewhere. It is signed by more than 80 leading civil society organizations.

Joint Statement
WHY CARBON OFFSETTING UNDERMINES CLIMATE TARGETS

In the past few months, we have seen a growing push, notably with the public statement of the SBTi Board of Trustees,¹ to allow companies and countries to use carbon credits to offset their emissions. This reflects a bigger trend² of bending carbon accounting rules, undermining actual emissions reductions.

Climate targets must focus primarily on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions within companies’ and countries’ own boundaries, including the phasing out of fossil fuel production, transport, sale and use. An urgent scale-up of financial support from both public and private actors is needed for this. But allowing companies and countries to meet climate commitments with carbon credits is likely to slow down global emission reductions while failing to provide anything like the scale of funds needed in the Global South, and reducing pressure to develop large-scale mechanisms such as “polluter pays” fees on emission-intensive sectors.

The reasons we are concerned by the renewed efforts to promote carbon offsetting³ include the following:

1. Offsetting could delay climate action

First, it is essential to understand that offsetting, at best, does not reduce the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, it simply moves emission reductions from one place to another. The logic of offsetting is built on the idea that one entity gets to keep emitting.⁴ For this reason, offsetting often ends up providing the social license for high-emitting activities to continue while reinforcing past injustices. For instance, fossil fuel companies have claimed to be reducing emissions by investing in planting trees while increasing their production of coal, oil and gas.⁵

Peer-reviewed studies and reports⁶ show that corporate net-zero strategies regularly rely on carbon credits to meet emission reduction targets. In other words, if the use of carbon offset credits is allowed to meet emission reduction targets, there is a strong risk that the mitigation hierarchy is not followed, regardless of rhetorical pleas to prioritize reductions.

2. Carbon offsetting inherently lacks credibility

Scientific literature on the topic has shown significant quality issues with carbon crediting programs⁷ including:

the likelihood that the majority of the billions of credits created up to now are not additional, i.e. that any reduction in emissions would likely have happened regardless of the carbon market (thus undermining the entire rationale for carbon crediting);
the difficulty to set meaningful baselines, and the temptation to set unrealistic baselines and generate more carbon credits;
the potential leakage or rebound effects, e.g. by merely shifting deforestation away from a project area to nearby areas;
non-permanent carbon removal which is falsely equated with the reduction of (permanent) emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels;
and social and environmental harms uncovered by numerous investigations over decades showing that projects have e.g. been imposed without local consent or violated the land rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
A common factor across these issues is that carbon crediting programs are dealing with unknowables and have to guess the key parameters of their projects. There is a strong incentive to choose parameters that simply generate the most credits, which history shows tends to overwhelm any incentive for market participants and standard setters to fix these quality issues.

3. There are only so many “quality” credits that could be used as offsets

Even if all the quality issues mentioned could be fixed (which we do not believe is possible for a large volume of the market based on the inherent flaws of the concept cited above as well as the evidence of more than two decades of efforts to fix them), projects and land would not be sufficiently available⁸ to feed the demand for a pay-to-keep-emitting model, promoted by the inclusion of carbon offset credits into scope 3 emissions accounting.

4. The climate funding gap will not be solved by offsetting

Carbon credits send a misleading signal about the efforts required to pursue climate action, and they undermine carbon prices by providing a false sense of the existence of ultra-cheap abatement options around the world (a few dollars per ton of CO2e avoided/removed while estimates of the social cost of carbon usually place this cost in the hundreds of dollars per ton of CO2e).⁹ They also risk disincentivizing the significant investments needed to ensure profound changes to corporate value chains and economic systems.

Companies can make a positive impact by funding carbon-related projects beyond their own value chain.¹⁰ Such financial contributions can be a way for companies to acknowledge their broader and historic responsibility on climate change, but they neither reduce the necessary investments to abate emissions from their own operations, nor do they absolve them from accountability to clean up and pay for the impacts of their pollution.

Over 70% of the global historical GHG emissions can be attributed to 78 companies (private or state owned).¹¹ Companies therefore have a responsibility to deeply and immediately reduce their own footprint by taking concrete measures to address the emissions in their global value chains, rather than simply buying credits to avoid tackling their own emissions problems. The difficulty to achieve these massive emission reductions cannot justify widely opening the door to creative accounting and climate distractions.

Currently, the most prominent voluntary and regulatory frameworks on climate transition planning and reporting exclude the use of carbon credits in meeting corporations’ interim emission reduction targets.¹² In particular, the European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS) state that carbon offsets cannot be merged with actual emissions reductions in corporate climate target reporting.¹³ The SBTi Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) commits to not go below national applicable law,¹⁴ hence SBTi must align with the ESRS. The recommendations from the UN HLEG¹⁵ also underline that carbon credits ‘cannot be counted toward a non-state actor’s interim emissions reductions required by its net zero pathway’. It is crucial to ensure consistency between these frameworks and keep ambition high to avoid a race to the bottom.

In a context in which our global carbon budget is rapidly decreasing, ensuring that focus will remain on actual reductions is paramount. It is worth noting the “technology-neutral” IPCC in its last Synthesis Report (2023) did not support or even mention offsetting as a viable option.¹⁶

We call for scientific, ambitious, equitable, robust, credible and transparent rules around carbon accounting and corporate climate target setting. Voluntary and regulatory frameworks on climate transition planning must exclude offsetting.

Organizations supporting this statement:

AbibiNsroma Foundation
ActionAid International
Amazon Watch
Amis de la Terre France / Friends of the Earth France
Amnesty International
AnsvarligFremtid
Association For Promotion Sustainable Development
Association of Ethical Shareholders Germany
BankTrack
Beyond Fossil Fuels
Biofuelwatch
BUNDjugend (Young Friends of the Earth Germany)
Canadian Unitarians for Social Justice
Carbon Market Watch
CEE Bankwatch Network
Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL)
Center for Sustainable Economy
Changing Markets Foundation
Christian Aid
ClientEarth
Climate Action Network Arab World
Climate Action Network Australia
Climate Action Network Canada
Climate Action Network International
Congo Basin Conservation Society CBCS-Network
Deutsche Umwelthilfe e.V.
Dogwood Alliance
Earth Action, Inc
EcoEquity
EcoNexus
Environmental Coalition on Standards (ECOS)
European Environmental Bureau (EEB)
EnergyTag
Environmental Defence Canada
Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA)
Ethikis – Label LONGTIME®
Facing Finance
Fastenaktion Switzerland
Fern
Finance Watch
Focus Association for Sustainable Development
Forests of the World
Fresh Eyes
Friends of the Earth Europe
Friends of the Earth Ireland
Friends of the Earth Spain
Friends of the Earth U.S.
GAIA – Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives
GLOBAL 2000 – Friends of the Earth Austria
Global Energy Monitor
Global Witness
Greenpeace
Iceland Nature Conservation Association
Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy
Institute for Sustainable Development Foundation
Just Share
JVE International
LIFE Education Sustainability Equality
Methane Action
Milieudefensie – Friends of the Earth Netherlands
Mom Loves Taiwan Association
New Climate Institute
Nipe Fagio
NOAH – Friends of the Earth Denmark
Notre Affaire à Tous
Oil Change International
Oxfam
Peace Movement Aotearoa
Power Shift Africa
Rainforest Action Network
Reacción Climática
Reclaim Finance
REVO Prosperidad Sostenible
Rinascimento Green
Secours catholique – Caritas France
ShareAction
Sociedad Amigos del Viento meteorología-ambiente-desarrollo
South Durban Community Environmental Alliance
Southern Africa Region Climate Action Network (SARCAN)
Stand.earth
Transport & Environment Union of Concerned Scientists
Urgewald
ZERO

Footnotes

1 SBTi Board of Trustees statement, April 2024
2 See for instance VCMI Scope 3 flexibility guidance, November 2023
3 See for instance US Government, May 2024, Voluntary Carbon Markets Joint Policy Statement and Principles
4 Doreen Stabinsky and others, 2020, Letter: Don’t rely on carbon offsets as a climate change solution, Financial Times
5 See for instance Climate Home News, 2 February 2024, “Shameful”: Shell uses carbon credits under investigation to meet climate targets, Friends of the Earth, March 2022, Environmental groups sue TotalEnergies for misleading the public over Net Zero
6 Gabbatiss, J., 2023, Analysis: How some of the world’s largest companies rely on carbon offsets to ‘reach net-zero’, Carbon Brief; Carbon Market Watch and New Climate Institute, 2024, Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor; Trencher, G., et al, 2023 Do all roads lead to Paris? Climatic Change
7 See this repository of articles on offset quality, last updated February 2024
8 The World, Global demand for carbon offsets to combat emissions is growing — but the supply is unreliable, 2021
9 Tol, R., 2021, Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time, Environmental Science, Economics
10 SBTi, 2024, Above and Beyond: An SBTi report on the design and implementation of beyond value chain mitigation (BVCM)
11 Carbon Majors Database, 2024
12 Reclaim Finance, 2024, Corporate Climate Transition Plans: What to look for
13 ESRS E1: “GHG emission reduction targets shall be disclosed for Scope 1, 2, and 3 GHG emissions, either separately or combined (…). The GHG emission reduction targets shall be gross targets, meaning that the undertaking shall not include GHG removals, carbon credits or avoided emissions as a means of achieving the GHG emission reduction targets”. The ESRS applies to the 50’000 largest EU companies and 10’000 foreign companies.
14 SBTI Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for Development of SBTi Standards: “12. The requirements specified in SBTi Standards shall: (…) g. Meet or exceed the requirements in the countries where the standard is applied, including at a minimum meeting all regulatory requirements as applicable”. The Clarification statement to the SBTi Board of Trustees Statement made explicit that SBTi will comply with its Standard Operating Procedure for processing with the carbon offsetting issue: “Any change to SBTi standards, including use of EACs for Scope 3, will be conducted according to previously approved SBTi Standard Operating Procedure for developing standards”.
15 UN HLEG report, 2022, Integrity Matters: Net-zero commitments by businesses, financial institutions, cities and regions
16 AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 (ipcc.ch)

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2024/0 ... te-action/

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The Lithium cabal defeated in Bolivia, but winning in Serbia

Stephen Karganovic

July 4, 2024

There are indications that sections of the Serbian public are waking up to the existential danger to life and health posed by their government’s shady deal with a predatory corporation.

A famous person (was it Karl Marx?) once remarked that when history repeats itself, the first time it is a tragedy, the second time a farce. Many of Marx’s important predictions may not have come to fruition exactly as he wanted, but on this one he was spot on.

The recent commotion in the South American country of Bolivia may be regarded as an illustration. The potential tragedy part of the drama was the 2019 coup, executed professionally according to the regime change rulebook in order to seize Bolivia’s valuable lithium deposits and incidentally despoil it’s long-suffering and impoverished citizens of all their mineral wealth. In that coup, President Evo Morales, the indisputable champion of the bulk of Bolivia’s majority indigenous population, was ruthlessly deposed. The farce is the amateurishly attempted replay of that episode on 26 June, which in spite of best laid plans unexpectedly went awry. The farce took all of three hours to collapse.

On both occasions, in 2019 and on 26 June 2024, the principal points of contention were Bolivia’s vast lithium deposits, estimated at 21 million tonnes, and for whose benefit they would be exploited. A related but equally fundamental issue was (and still very much is) Bolivia’s orientation in the geopolitical arena, whether it would side with the BRICS block or the collective West. In everything but the operation’s outcome in the farcical stage, the symmetry between the two coups was evident.

In 2019 the intended rapine of Bolivia’s natural resources, with lithium deposits at the top of the plunder list, initially was successful but ultimately it failed. To be sure, the regime change manual was followed faithfully. After shameless electoral interference with abundant cash and a flood of corrupt media disinformation, Evo Morales’ commanding lead in the 2019 elections was whittled down to a manageable level so that his electoral victory could be plausibly portrayed as stolen. In standard fashion, rented mobs demanded his withdrawal and commissions were set up by vassal entities such as the Organisation of American States to declare that the election process was fraudulent. At the appropriate moment, army officers who almost to a man were graduates of the notorious subversion academy, the School of the Americas (since innocuously renamed Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation to cover up its criminal tracks) were activated to administer the coup de grace to Morales’ presidency, or so it was expected. The legally re-elected, however narrowly, President Morales was compelled to flee for his life into exile. A dumb and as it turned out also venal, but extremely cooperative, Aryan blonde without a drop of Inca blood, Jeanine Áñez, was invested with the presidential sash and illegally installed to replace him.

The multinational lithium cartel could now rub their hands and gloat over the succulent Bolivian pickings that had fallen into their lap, a booty Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid could only have dreamt of.

Elon Musk, one of the rapacious magnates who was deeply involved in the coup and who was in dire need of lithium to power his electric car venture, publicly flaunted his complicity in the affair, instigated to thwart the political will of a long-suffering and impoverished nation. He arrogantly boasted that “we will coup whoever we want” when asked to explain his sordid role in overthrowing a democratically elected foreign government.

But it was a short lived party. Bolivia’s unwashed masses, the Andean “deplorables,” stubbornly refused to play by the script. Following months of civil disobedience by the abused population, Bolivia became virtually ungovernable and it was the coup regime that finally had to give in. After a new election, Bolivia returned to constitutional rule under the legally elected current President Luis Arce, Morales’ protégé and former finance minister.

The stage was set for the recent farce the moment Evo Morales announced his intention to run for President in the forthcoming 2025 elections. His stand-in Luis Arce’s patriotic policies were bad enough for the cabal, particularly his plan to treat Bolivia’s national resources as the common patrimony of its people, to explore the use of safe lithium extraction technologies developed by Russia, and to apply for membership in BRICS. But the prospect of their charismatic bête noire Evo Morales’ being elected again next year was simply intolerable for both oligarchies, the international and the domestic.

The big lesson of the failed attempted coup in Bolivia is that the hegemon’s bag of tricks is nearly empty and that its technologies of control, which in the past had almost always worked brilliantly, are now faltering badly. It is futile however to try to teach an old dog new tricks. Taking a leaf from Alexander Lukashenko’s playbook during the foreign orchestrated upheaval in Belarus, instead of fleeing to seek refuge in a foreign embassy, which is what Latin American presidents have traditionally done in similar circumstances, Luis Arce decided to change the paradigm. He came down from his office, personally confronted the rebellious troops, all native Bolivians like himself, informed them that he was their legal President and commander-in-chief, and addressing them over the head of the treacherous School of the Americas graduate, General Juan José Zúñiga, who enticed them to mutiny on the false pretext of protecting democracy, Arce ordered them to return to their barracks. And lo and behold, obediently they did. After a brief stand-off in Plaza Murillo in front of the Presidential palace, the second Bolivian lithium coup fizzled pathetically.

But as the saying goes, you lose some and you win some. Whilst being chased out of proud Bolivia, the lithium cabal are scoring big in servile Serbia. Compared to Bolivia and other lithium rich countries, Serbia’s reserves are relatively modest, estimated at 1,3 million tonnes. It is nevertheless an attractive venue because its corrupt regime grants foreign concessions on the principle of baksheesh and is always keen to make under the table deals for a cut of the proceeds. It is as uninterested in the devastating impact of unregulated lithium mining as it is completely indifferent to where its munitions will end up in the Ukrainian conflict. The health of citizens theoretically entrusted to its care or the environment are the least of its concerns.

Mostly unnoticed by the rest of the world, for several years an intense lithium battle has been simmering in Serbia. Spearheading the international mining cartel’s assault on Serbia’s mineral wealth is the predatory Rio Tinto corporation, an outfit with a terrible record for environmentally destructive practices and callous exploitation of human labour. One suspects that the reason Rio Tinto and the Serbian government are getting on so well is that they are kindred spirits.

The crux of the Serbian situation is that the government does not have a policy of treating natural resources as the inalienable patrimony of the nation not subject to privatisation and which must be administered with regard for the common good. Rio Tinto’s objective, naturally, is the maximisation of profit for the least investment. There are other European countries such as Germany which have considerable lithium deposits but they also have strict environmental laws, high labour costs, and a much more ecologically sophisticated public than is the case with Serbia. That is why for Rio Tinto a symbiotic relationship with Serbia’s corrupt government is the perfect solution for getting a piece of the electric vehicle battery market at minimum expense. The waste its mining activities will leave behind once they cease to be profitable, turning productive agricultural land to waste and contaminating Serbia with poisonous substances that inevitably would seep into the water supply, is not Rio Tinto’s problem. It should be the government’s concern, of course, but like everywhere else where it operates Rio Tinto has the government in its pocket.

There are indications that sections of the Serbian public are waking up to the existential danger to life and health posed by their government’s shady deal with a predatory corporation whose track record is scandalous even by the abysmally low mining industry standards. Serbs do not have the stamina of Bolivians, but over the next several weeks protests are scheduled in the most endangered areas as well as in the remainder of the country.

It is unlikely that the protesters will stray very far from their comfort zone or that a general on a white horse (perhaps this time a graduate of the Suvorov military academy?) will appear to save the day. But as the situation unfolds it bears watching, and we will keep readers abreast of further developments as warranted.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... in-serbia/

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Image
Chickens. (Photo: Lance Cheung/USDA)

The corporate greed behind bird flu
Originally published: The corporate greed behind bird flu on July 3, 2024 (more by The corporate greed behind bird flu) (Posted Jul 06, 2024)

This column was produced for Progressive Perspectives, a project of The Progressive magazine, and distributed by Tribune News Service.

Three people, nearly 100 million chickens, and 126 herds of dairy cattle across twelve states have, so far, been infected by the latest wave of avian flu sweeping the nation. Like it or not, bird flu is back, bringing with it threats of the next global pandemic, supply chain turmoil, and food price shocks that can decide elections.

Bird flu has become a semi-annual occurrence in America, regularly laying bare the cracks in our brittle food system. As food production becomes increasingly industrialized, consolidated, and precarious, we have transformed H5N1 from an isolated zoonotic disease into a nation-shaking phenomenon. Only in our misguided system could a sick bird in one state ravage a dairy farm in another and stoke legitimate concern of the next global pandemic.

Industrial factory farms are at the center of our corporate food system. They cram hundreds of thousands of animals with near-identical genetics into desperately tight quarters, creating perfect breeding grounds for infectious disease.

This could have been avoided. Federal and state policies have traded the resiliency of diversified small-scale farms for the profit efficiency of Petri dish confinements. Today, 75 percent of egg-laying hens in the United States are raised on just 347 factory farms, with an average of nearly 850,000 animals per operation. The typical American dairy farm now confines more than 2,000 animals, while the number of smaller-scale dairy farms has plummeted to barely a third as many today as twenty years ago.

Processing facilities have been similarly consolidated into the hands of a few big players. Huge corporations today own nearly all elements of the food chain, moving animals, eggs, and dairy (plus the diseases they often carry) through a tight network of processing facilities, increasing the likelihood of rapid contamination across the country.

In many ways, we’ve put all our eggs in one basket. When that basket is overturned, the effects are disastrous.

Meanwhile, corporate food chain giants are notorious for exploiting crises like these to profit off of consumers. A recent Federal Trade Commission (FTC) report finds that the grocery cartels did just this during the COVID-19 pandemic, leveraging vast market power to capitalize on high prices—generating revenues far surpassing total costs and contradicting companies’ assertions that higher grocery shelf prices were necessary to cover their own costs.

In late 2023, a federal jury ruled that Cal-Maine, the nation’s largest egg producer, and other major egg producers conspired in the mid-2000s to fix egg prices and gouge shoppers. These corporations call the shots in Washington and gaslight us to cover their profit losses when the system they built fails.

Corporations used the specter of bird flu outbreaks to raise egg prices to a record high of nearly $5 per dozen in January of last year. Cal-Maine leveraged high egg prices into a sixfold profit increase despite not experiencing a single bird flu outbreak in its flocks until eleven months later. Today’s outbreak may bring more of the same. Public wariness of a worsening bird flu outbreak will likely be all the fodder companies need to profiteer once again.

Getting serious about protecting Americans from bird flu and price-gouging means taking aim at food monopolies and factory farms. President Joe Biden has begun to target food sector monopolies for the role they play in artificially driving up prices. But there is much more work to be done.

Biden’s Federal Trade Commission must investigate scheming operators like Cal-Maine for price collusion and anti-competitive practices. And Congress should pass the Farm System Reform Act and the Price Gouging Prevention Act, smart legislation that transitions out of factory farming and makes price-gouging illegal.

The longer we wait to overhaul our food system, the more corporations will exploit it at the expense of American consumers, family farmers, and our health.

https://mronline.org/2024/07/06/the-cor ... -bird-flu/

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Nature Communications: Permaculture as a Better Alternative to Conventional Agriculture?
Posted on July 8, 2024 by Lambert Strether

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

I used to write regularly on permaculture at NC; here is the category listing the posts. I stopped the practice, partly because I just didn’t have the time to spend in the garden any more, but also because I’d achieved my goal: I started studying and writing about permaculture around 2012, during Obama’s Jackpot: The Prequel, because I wanted to know if I could grow enough food on a quarter-acre of land to feed myself using permaculture principles. The answer turned out to be yes, but to really lead that life, I would have had not only to grow the vegetables, but to store them for eating over the winter and through the spring, by canning, pickling, drying, or in a root cellar. That was daunting, and so I turned into a mere gardener, itself a great and sadly abandoned pleasure that I highly recommend to anyone, even a project as simple as throwing wildflower seeds along the roadside. (The gateway drug for permaculture is sheet mulch; July may be too late to start, but you could certainly start next spring.)

What, you will have asked, is permaculture? Wikipedia throws down the guantlet here[1]:

Permaculture has been criticised as being poorly defined and unscientific.

All true — at least in the past! — but I think an article in Nature is a good riposte to both points. A quick placeholder definition, just to show that “permaculture” made the OED:

permaculture
/ˈpəːməkʌltʃə/
noun. l20.
[ORIGIN: from perma(nent adjective + culture noun.]
Ecology. The development of agricultural ecosystems intended to be complete and self-sustaining.

(Those who regard agriculture as a terrible mistake may quarrel with that definition, but as I think we will see from Nature, that’s mere semantics.)

In this brief post — brief so I can hit the road, sorry! — I’ll extract the salient points from the Nature article. Then I’ll suggest a few permaculture projects (beyond sheet mulch) and conclude.

Permaculture in Nature

Here is the article from Nature: “Permaculture enhances carbon stocks, soil quality and biodiversity in Central Europe“. To get the definition out of the way, the author’s describe permaculture (and contrast it to a parallel discipline with which I am not familiar, agroecology):

Permaculture creates agriculturally productive ecosystems that mimic the diversity, stability, and resilience of natural ecosystems. In this context, the term permaculture encompasses a set of agricultural practices, a design system to select, combine, and arrange those practices, and also the resulting agroecological farming system. Permaculture systems are, therefore, highly individual and context-specific, which can be essential for a high degree of sustainability. As a result, it is not possible to establish fixed general guidelines as is the case for organic agriculture. Instead, both agroecology and permaculture are based on sets of principles or elements emphasizing a growing set of favorable agricultural practices. There is a strong overlap in the principles of these two approaches, which include the promotion of habitat, species, and genetic diversity, the cycling of biomass and nutrients, the build-up of storages of fertile soil and water, and the integration of different land use elements to create synergies. Hereby, both permaculture and agroecology aim to establish regenerative agriculture in terms of environmental health18,19. Furthermore, agroecology has an additional focus on social values, responsibility governance and solidarity economy, while permaculture shows a strong emphasis on the conscious design of such agroecosystems.

And results (materials and methods here):

The results of this study highlight that permaculture in Central Europe enables higher carbon stocks, soil quality and biodiversity compared to predominant agriculture. Soil carbon stocks in the first 30 cm of topsoil on permaculture sites were comparable to average German grasslands while still producing cereals, vegetables, and fruit…. In contrast, average net carbon losses have been observed for the predominant industrial agriculture in the past and are predicted for the future. ….

We also found higher total nitrogen contents on permaculture sites. On the one hand, higher nitrogen contents promote plant productivity, but on the other hand, this means an increased risk of gaseous losses, e.g., nitrous oxide or ammonia into the atmosphere or nitrate leaching into groundwater. As permaculture farms work with minimal or no tillage, permanent soil cover, and without mineral nitrogen fertilizers, it can be assumed that the risk of nitrogen losses is low….

The plant-extractable concentrations of soil phosphorous, potassium, magnesium, boron, and zinc were higher on permaculture sites than on conventionally fertilized soils of the control fields, which can be explained by a higher input of organic matter….

A high input of organic matter together with minimal or no tillage is probably responsible for lower soil bulk densities48,49 and increased abundances and diversity of earthworms on permaculture sites. Soil bulk density is a key soil quality indicator with respect to plant root penetration, aeration, and infiltration and hereby codetermines erosion potentia;. An increased earthworm abundance facilitates a reduced soil bulk density and vice versa.

(NOTE Sheet mulch makes earthworms happy.) As FDR said: “A nation that destroys its soils destroys itself.” So let’s not do that! For more on soil at NC, see here, here, here, and here.)

The Conclusion:

In this study, we observed strong increases in soil carbon stocks, soil quality, and biodiversity through the use of permaculture. These results suggest that permaculture could contribute to the urgently needed transformation of agriculture to mitigate negative effects on various Earth system processes such as climate change, biogeochemical nitrogen and phosphorous flows, biosphere integrity, land-system change, and soil degradation. Our results suggest that permaculture is an effective tool to promote sustainable agriculture ([Sustainable Development Goals] SDG 2), ensure sustainable production patterns (SDG 12), combat climate change (SDG 13) and halt and reverse land degradation and biodiversity loss (SDG 15)100. While there are numerous scientific results on more environmentally friendly practices such as agroforestry, crop-livestock integration, or the promotion of semi-natural habitats, the key capability of permaculture is to select, combine, and arrange precise practices for a specific context of land and farmer to create synergistic, regenerative and resilient agroecosystems. We see this as the missing link between scientific knowledge and implementation in practice. Therefore, we propose to foster the education of farmers and specialized consultants in permaculture design and related practices, as well as the redesign of agricultural systems according to permaculture principles.

Phys.org’s summary is more pointed: “Permaculture found to be a sustainable alternative to conventional agriculture“:

In view of the challenges of climate change and species extinction, this type of agriculture proved to be a real alternative to conventional cultivation—and reconcile environmental protection and high yields.

To be hoped! Now let’s turn to permaculture on a much smaller scale: your own patch, whether garden, de-lawned lawn, community garden, or whatever.

Permaculture Projects You Can Do

From Homes and Gardens, “Permaculture gardening projects – 3 simple DIY jobs for the weekend,” their definition:

Permaculture and organic gardening practices focus on working with nature rather than against it, often considered a holistic approach to gardening. Put simply, this includes growing a diverse range of edible and ornamental crops, caring for the soil and encouraging wildlife. Here, we share some simple and quick jobs for the weekend that will help your backyard thrive in the months ahead.

(Rather missing the theoretical aspect of “mimic the diversity, stability, and resilience of natural ecosystems,” but I suppose that comes under the heading of “working with nature rather than against it.”) They suggest a rain barrel (not legal in all states):

Rainwater harvesting should be a priority for every homeowner. If you are looking for permaculture gardening projects for the weekend and do not have a rain barrel, why not consider installing one? Installation is quick and simple and can conserve water and reduce surface water run-off in your yard.

Rain barrels are a sustainable way to collect rainwater, typically positioned next to a garden shed or greenhouse, whereby water can be diverted from drainpipes and stored. This can then be used during the warmer months of the year, reducing the need to use tap water.

Rainwater harvesting is an important part of permaculture philosophy. This quick and practical solution helps to reduce your water usage through rainwater reuse, thereby promoting sustainability in your backyard.

Again, the, er, “holistic” (woo) aspect is missing. (Here is a permaculture project with a focus on water.) Any serious permaculture project is going to put more thought into water than capturing it in a barrel, but you have to start somewhere! (I really added this because in the papers I’m either reading about floods or drought; and a stock of water seems like a handy buffer to have, especiallly if (say) you can trickle it out to the beds at need.)

From Permaculture Institute Sydney, “Basic Design Techniques and Plant Choices for Growing a Fire Break” (granted, Australian bushfires; perhaps a reader from California will speak up). This is a massive plan, and so I will pick out one or two of the easy bits:

Food forests and vegetable gardens are largely fire retardant. They are usually moister areas and the plant species are not fire prone species. Placement of these elements between you and the likely fire front along with other firebreaks and strategies will greatly protect your home.

And:

Mounds of soil strategically placed near your house enable you to access the roof quickly and safely to fight fire and ember attack. The roof is a hot spot in a fire and climbing ladders is dangerous. Earth mounds also protect your home and other structures and keep them cool.

Conclusion

Permaculture has been growing quietly while I ignored it; there are three million permaculturalists worldwide, placing permaculture as an ethical or spiritual practice between Zorastrianism (2.6 million) and Shinto (4.0 million) in 140 countries. That’s not unimpressive! And permaculture is being normalized, and its concepts being extended beyond agriculture:

[T]he booming “blue economy” is no panacea. Fish farms can pollute the water. Mangroves are often felled to make way for prawn farms. The solutions of today could turn out to be problems of the future. We cannot simply shift from one form of environmental exploitation to another.

There is an alternative: permaculture. This approach has proven itself on land as a way to blend farming with healthy ecosystems. What if it could do the same on water?

So perhaps progress is being made, away from the spotlight:


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The bottom photo will naturally remind the reader of Monet’s garden at Giverny, where he painted his famous water lilies. Here is one permaculturalist’s view of Giverny (the whole piece is thought-provoking):

An invitation to be a “pop up speaker” at the NGV’s Monet’s Garden Exhibition gave me an opportunity to address this vexed role of aesthetics in permaculture…. [According to founder Bill Mollison, [p]ermaculture was about growing useful plants in contrast the ‘useless plants’ of ornamental horticulture. Monet was not a target of Mollisonian scorn, but I suppose he could have been… Even the roses much reviled by Mollison as useless ornamentals are actually a source of perfume, culinary delights and medicinal rose hips as well as being yummy goat fodder. So maybe there can be an accommodation between aesthetics of Monet’s and ecological rationalism of Permaculture because these apparent polar opposites always carry the seed of the other.

And dialectics with aesthetics having charged onto left field, I will end, if not conclude. Gardening is, of course, one way to “stay safe out there.” Eh?

NOTES

[1] Wikipedia also has an excellent potted history of permaculture, starting with Franklin Hiram King’s Farmers of Forty Centuries: Or Permanent Agriculture in China, Korea and Japan..

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... lture.html
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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Sat Jul 13, 2024 3:37 pm

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Copernicus: June 2024 marks 12th month of global temperature reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial
Originally published: Copernicus on July 4, 2024 by Copernicus and ECMWF (more by Copernicus) | (Posted Jul 09, 2024)

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the EU, routinely publishes monthly climate bulletins reporting on the changes observed in global surface air and sea temperatures, sea ice cover and hydrological variables. Additionally, the bulletin also includes highlights regarding the boreal spring (March-April-May). Most of the reported findings are based on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, using billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.

June 2024—Surface air temperature and sea surface temperature highlights:

June 2024 was warmer globally than any previous June in the data record, with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 16.66°C, 0.67°C above the 1991-2020 average for June and 0.14°C above the previous high set in June 2023.
This is the thirteenth month in a row that is the warmest in the ERA5 data record for the respective month of the year. While unusual, a similar streak of monthly global temperature records happened previously in 2015/2016.
According to ERA5 data, the month was 1.50°C above the estimated June average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period, making it the twelfth consecutive month to reach or break the 1.5°C threshold.
The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (July 2023—June 2024) is the highest on record, at 0.76°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
The average European temperature for June 2024 was 1.57°C above the 1991-2020 average for June, making the month the joint-second warmest June on record for Europe.
European temperatures were most above average over southeast regions and Türkiye, but near or below average over western Europe, Iceland and northwestern Russia.
Outside Europe, temperatures were most above average over eastern Canada, the western United States and Mexico, Brazil, northern Siberia, the Middle East, northern Africa and western Antarctica.
Temperatures were below average over the eastern equatorial Pacific, indicating a developing La Niña, but air temperatures over the ocean remained at an unusually high level over many regions.
The sea surface temperature (SST) averaged for June 2024 over 60°S—60°N was 20.85°C, the highest value on record for the month.
This is the fifteenth month in a row that the SST has been the warmest in the ERA5 data record for the respective month of the year.
Datasets other than ERA5 may not confirm the 12-month streak highlighted here, due to the relatively small margins above 1.5°C of ERA5 global temperatures for July and August 2023, May and June 2024, and differences among the various datasets. Also, it must be stressed that the 1.5°C and 2°C limits set in the Paris Agreement are targets for the average temperature of the planet over a twenty or thirty-year period.

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Monthly global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1850—1900 from January 1940 to June 2024, plotted as time series for all 12-month periods spanning July to June of the following year. The 12 months from July 2023 to June 2024 are shown with a thick red line, while all other 12-month periods are shown with thin lines shaded according to the decade, from blue (1940s) to brick red (2020s). Data source: ERA5. (Photo: Copernicus Climate Change Service /ECMWF)

According to Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S):

June marks the 13th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures, and the 12th in a row above 1.5°C with respect to pre-industrial. This is more than a statistical oddity and it highlights a large and continuing shift in our climate. Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm. This is inevitable, unless we stop adding GHG into the atmosphere and the oceans.

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Global-mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1991-2020 for each June from 1979 to 2024. Data source: ERA5. (Photo: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF)

June 2024—Hydrological highlights
June 2024 was wetter than average over Iceland, central and most of south-western Europe, with heavy precipitation leading to floods in regions of Germany, Italy, France and Switzerland.
The month was drier than average over Ireland, most of the UK, Fennoscandia, southern Italy and much of Eastern Europe, particularly around the Black Sea.
Outside Europe, in June 2024, it was wetter than average over parts of North America, with a series of storms, including exceptional Hurricane Beryl. It was wetter than average also over south-western and south-eastern Asia, southernmost Africa, regions of Australia and South America.
Drier-than-average conditions were seen across North America, several regions of Asia and most of South America. Severe wildfires occurred in northeastern Russia and central South America.
June 2024—Sea Ice highlights
Arctic sea ice extent was 3% below average, close to the values observed most years since 2010.
Antarctic sea ice extent was 12% below average, the second-lowest extent for June in the satellite data record, behind the lowest June value of -16% observed in 2023.
| Anomalies and extremes in sea surface temperature for June 2024 Colour categories refer to the percentiles of the temperature distributions for the 19912020 reference period The extreme Coolest and Warmest categories are based on rankings for the period 19792024 Values are calculated only for the ice free oceans Areas covered with sea ice and ice shelves in June 2024 are shown in light grey Data source ERA5 Credit Copernicus

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Anomalies and extremes in sea surface temperature for June 2024. Colour categories refer to the percentiles of the temperature distributions for the 1991—2020 reference period. The extreme (“Coolest” and “Warmest”) categories are based on rankings for the period 1979—2024. Values are calculated only for the ice-free oceans. Areas covered with sea ice and ice shelves in June 2024 are shown in light grey. Data source: ERA5. (Photo: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF)

https://mronline.org/2024/07/09/coperni ... ndustrial/

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Building a Planet of Peace Is the Only Realistic Thing to Do: The Twenty-Eighth Newsletter (2024)

On Isla Grande, Afro-Colombian residents discuss the urgent need for a sustainable electricity plant. Their efforts echo President Petro’s push for solar energy, with the aim of addressing broader regional goals of sustainable development. Yet, development and climate adaption require funding – funding that is instead going to war, with global military spending nearing $3 trillion annually.
11 JULY 2024

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Beatriz González (Colombia), Señor presidente, qué honor estar con usted en este momento histórico (‘Mr President, What an Honour to Be with You in This Historic Moment’), 1987.

Dear friends,

Greetings from the desk of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research.

There are times in life when you want to set aside complexity and return to the essence of things. Last week, I was on a boat in the Caribbean Sea, travelling from Isla Grande to the mainland of Colombia, when it began to rain heavily. Though our boat was modest, we were in minimal danger with Ever de la Rosa Morales, a leader of the Afro-Colombian community on the twenty-seven Rosario Islands (located off the coast of Cartagena), at the helm. During the downpour, a range of human emotions swept through me, from fear to exhilaration. The rain was linked to Hurricane Beryl, a storm that struck Jamaica at a Category Four level (the highest the country has experienced) and then moved toward Mexico with a more muted ferocity.

The Haitian poet Frankétienne sings of the ‘dialect of lunatic hurricanes’, the ‘folly of colliding winds’, and the ‘hysteria of the roaring sea’. These are fitting phrases to describe the way we experience the power of nature, a power that has redoubled as a result of the damage inflicted upon it by capitalism. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report suggests that the North Atlantic has almost certainly experienced stronger and more frequent hurricanes since the 1970s. Scientists say that long-term greenhouse gas emissions have led to warmer ocean waters, which pick up more moisture and energy and lead to both stronger winds and more rainfall.

On Isla Grande, where pirates used to stash their loot and where Africans escaping enslavement fled over five hundred years ago, residents held an assembly in early July to discuss the need for an electricity plant that would benefit the islanders. The assembly is part of a long struggle that ultimately allowed them to remain on these islands, despite the Colombian oligarchy’s attempt to evict them in 1984, and succeeded in removing the rich owner of the best land on Isla Grande, upon which they built the town of Orika through a process called minga (community solidarity). Their Community Action Board (Junta de Acción Comunal), which led the struggle to defend their land, is now called the Community Council of the Rosario Islands (Consejo Comunitario de las Islas del Rosario). Part of that council held the assembly, an example of the permanent minga.

The island is knit together by this spirit of minga and by the mangroves, which preserve the habitat from the rising waters. The assembled residents know that they must expand their electricity capacity, not only to promote eco-tourism, but also for their own use. But how can they generate electricity on these small islands?

On the day of the rains, Colombian President Gustavo Petro visited the town of Sabanalarga (Atlántico) to inaugurate the Colombia Solar Forest, a complex of five solar parks with a capacity of 100 megawatts. This park is set to benefit 400,000 Colombians and cut annual CO2 emissions by 110,212 tonnes, which is equivalent to 4.3 million car trips from Barranquilla to Cartagena. At this event, Petro called on mayors in the Colombian Caribbean to build ten-megawatt solar farms for each municipality, reduce electricity rates, decarbonise the economy, and promote sustainable development. This is perhaps the most concrete solution for the islands to date, whose coastlines are being eroded by the rising waters.

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Marisa Darasavath (Lao People’s Democratic Republic), Oil Painting #7, 2013.

As Petro spoke in Sabanalarga, I thought about his speech to the United Nations last year, where he pleaded for world leaders to honour the ‘crisis of life’ and fix our problems together rather than ‘waste time killing one another’. In that speech, Petro lyrically described the situation in 2070, forty-six years from now. In that year, he said, Colombia’s lush forests will become deserts and ‘people will go north, no longer attracted by the sequins of wealth, but by something simpler and more vital: water’. ‘Billions’, he said, ‘will defy armies and change the Earth’ as they travel to find the remaining sources of water.

Such a dystopia must be prevented. To do so, Petro said, at the very minimum sufficient funding must be provided for the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), established by a treaty in 2015. While the entire process of developing these SDGs was fraught with problems, including how they disarticulate issues that are inextricably connected (poverty and water, for instance), their existence and acceptance by world governments provides an opportunity to insist that they be taken seriously. On 8 July, the United Nations Economic and Social Council opened the 2024 High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development, which will last for ten days. The gap between the funds pledged to meet the SDGs and the actual amount provided to implement the programme in developing countries is now $4 trillion per year (up from $2.5 trillion in 2019). Without sufficient funding, it is unlikely that this forum will have any meaningful outcome.

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Abdelaziz Gorgi (Tunisia), Les Joueuses de Cartes (‘Card Players’), 1973.

In anticipation of the forum, the UN released the Sustainable Development Goals Report 2024, which shows that only ‘minimal or moderate’ progress has been made toward nearly half of the seventeen targets, and more than a third have either stalled or regressed. While the first sustainable development goal is to eradicate poverty, for instance, the report notes that ‘the global extreme poverty rate increased in 2020 for the first time in decades’, and that by 2030, at least 590 million people will be in extreme poverty and fewer than one in three countries will halve national poverty. Similarly, while the second goal is to end hunger, in 2022 one in ten people faced hunger, 2.4 billion people were moderately or severely food insecure, and 148 million children under the age of five suffered from stunting. These two goals, ending poverty and ending hunger, are perhaps the ones with the highest global consensus. And yet, we are nowhere near meeting even a modest interpretation of these goals. Ending poverty and hunger would also assist in the fifth SDG, gender equality, since it would reduce the increased burden of care work placed mostly on women, who largely bear the weight of austerity policies.

There is, as President Petro said, a ‘crisis of life’. We seem to favour death over life. Each year, we spend more and more on the global military. As of 2022, this number was $2.87 trillion – nearly the amount needed to finance all seventeen SDGs for one year. It is strange how the advocates of a planet at war claim that they are realistic, while those who want a planet of peace are seen as idealists; yet, in fact, those who want a planet of war are exterminators, while those of us who advocate for a planet of peace are the only possible realists. Reality demands peace over war, spending our precious resources to solve our common problems – such as climate change, poverty, hunger, and illiteracy – above all else.

In September 2023, a month before the current genocidal assault against Gaza began, Petro called for the UN to sponsor two peace conferences, one for Ukraine and one for Palestine. If there can be peace in these two hotspots, Petro said, ‘they would teach us to make peace in all regions of the planet’. This perfectly reasonable suggestion was ignored then and is ignored now. Nonetheless, this did not stop Petro from organising a massive Latin American concert for peace in Palestine in early July.

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Rosângela Rennó (Brasil), from the series Rio-Montevideo, 2016.

There is madness in our choices. The revenues of the top five arms dealers in 2022 alone (all domiciled in the United States) were around $276 billion, a number that should be a standing rebuke to humanity. Israel has dropped roughly 13,050 MK-84 ‘dumb bombs’ on Gaza, which have an explosive capacity of 2,000 pounds (around 900 kgs) per bomb. Each of these bombs costs $16,000, meaning that the bombs already dropped have cost over $200 million in total. It is strange that the very governments that supply Israel with these bombs and that give it political cover (including the US) then turn around and fund the UN to dismantle unexploded dumb bombs from Gaza during the pause between bombings. Meanwhile, aid for relief and development in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (which includes Gaza) has not exceeded hundreds of millions – in a good year. More spent on weapons, less spent on life – the ugliness of our humanity needs to be transformed.

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Mohamed Sulaiman (Western Sahara), Red Liberty, 2014.

The young artist Mohamed Sulaiman grew up in Algeria, at the Smara Refugee Camp of the displaced peoples of Western Sahara. After studying at Algeria’s University of Batna, Sulaiman returned to the camp to make art based on calligraphy traditions that use the oral histories of the Saharawi people as well as poems of contemporary Arab writers. In 2016, Sulaiman founded the Motif Art Studio, built from recycled materials to resemble traditional desert homes. In his studio, which opened in 2017, Sulaiman hangs Red Liberty, which carries a line from the Egyptian poet Ahmad Shawqi (1868–1932): ‘Red freedom has a door, knocked on by every bloodstained hand’. The line comes from ‘The Plight of Damascus’, a poem that reflects on the French destruction of Damascus in 1916 as revenge for the Arab revolt. The poem encapsulates not only the ugliness of the war, but also the promise of a future:

Homelands have a hand that has already lent a favour
and to which all free people owe a debt.


The bloodstained hand is the hand of those before us who struggled to build a better world, many of whom perished in that struggle. To them, and future generations, we owe a debt. We must turn this ‘crisis of life’ into an opportunity to ‘live far from the apocalypse and times of extinction,’ as Petro said last year; ‘A beautiful horizon [is coming] amidst the storm and darkness of today, a horizon that tastes like hope’.

Warmly,

Vijay

https://thetricontinental.org/newslette ... te-change/

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Climate Change Is Coming for Hospitals
Posted on July 12, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. If anything, this post seems to be understating how climate change threatens hospitals. Floods and other severe weather does not just affect facilities directly, but it can also prevent staff from coming in. In New York City, the subways flooded during Hurricane Sandy and were closed for a week plus. On top of that, lower Manhattan suffered a protracted power outage. What happens if hospital staffers who expect to charge EVs at home are stuck due to lack of power and not enough juice in their car to get to work?

The article also describes the impact of the new, seemingly pervasive problem of scorching heat.

By Kaitlin Sullivan, a freelance journalist who covers health, science, and the environment. Produced in partnership with Energy Innovation and the Aspen Global Change Institute. Cross posted from Yale Climate Connections

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Despite flood conditions in Seminole County, Florida, an ambulance makes a run during Tropical Storm Fay on August 21, 2008. (Photo credit: Barry Bahler / FEMA)

In August 2023, time was running out for health care workers along Florida’s Gulf Coast. Hospital administrators and staff had to decide how they would prepare themselves, their patients, and their facilities as Hurricane Idalia — a Category 4 — closed in on the coastline.Faced with the possibility of a six-foot storm surge that would engulf streets and potentially flood the lower levels of the hospitals, four hospitals and eight free-standing emergency rooms in the Tampa Bay metro area were shut down. The hospitals transported patients to safer ground by ambulance.
Within a month, health care leaders in two other major U.S. cities would confront similar tests. On the West Coast, historic rainfall cut power to a hospital in Los Angeles, while in New York, torrential downpours caused a power outage and electrical damage at a hospital in Brooklyn — both incidents prompting emergency evacuations.

The recent hospital closures in the United States illustrate a larger trend that’s already in motion. Human-driven climate change has increased the risk of damage to hospitals by 41% between 1990 and 2020, according to a December 2023 report published by XDI, or Cross Dependency Initiative, an Australian climate risk data company.

Thousands of health care facilities around the world are buckling under the effects of climate change, a trend experts predict will worsen in the coming decades as extreme weather increases pressure on hospital infrastructure and simultaneously creates more demand for care.

Expert Warnings

In a May 2024 report, the United Nations Population Fund estimated that nearly 1,500 hospitals are located in low-lying coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean that already endure life-threatening storms and flooding. More than 80% of hospitals in Aruba, Bahamas, Cayman Islands, Guyana, and Suriname are in these danger zones.

Hundreds of hospitals in the U.S. are at risk from flooding, according to a 2022 study by Harvard researchers. Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, hospitals in Delaware, Florida, Louisiana, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania were most at risk of flooding caused by a Category 2 hurricane.

On the other side of the globe, surging floods and landslides shuttered 12 health care facilities in five provinces in southern Thailand in 2023. The year before that, Pakistan’s devastating floods limited the function of at least 1,460 health care facilities, about 10% of the country’s total.

Looking at the climate risk to roughly 200,000 hospitals from flooding, fires, and cyclones, the XDI researchers estimated that by the end of this century, one in 12 hospitals worldwide could be at risk of total or partial shutdown due to extreme weather.

Some regions are more vulnerable than others. The report estimated more than 5,800 hospitals in South Asia alone — an area that includes India, the world’s most populous country — would be at high risk of shutting down under a 4.3 degrees Celsius global warming scenario.

Other regions are not immune, however. Over half of hospitals in the Central African Republic and more than one-quarter of hospitals in the Philippines and Nepal would face the same fate.

Compounding the Pressure with Extreme Heat

Summer 2023 was the hottest on record. Scorching temperatures brought deadly heat waves and wildfires that tore through forests and surrounding towns and cities — all potentially impacting human health as well as the hospitals and clinics where people seek care.

“The northern hemisphere just had a summer of extremes — with repeated heat waves fueling devastating wildfires, harming health, disrupting daily lives, and wreaking a lasting toll on the environment,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement.

That summer, in Arizona, for example, extreme heat put pressure on power grids and spurred an influx of people in need of medical care for heat stress.

A 2021 study found that heat-related emergency room visits in Taiwan rose by 50% on days that reached a wet-bulb temperature — which accounts for both heat and humidity — of at least 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit. At that level, it’s more difficult for sweat to evaporate and therefore harder for people to cool themselves.



Looking Ahead to Future Risk

In the coming decades, health care infrastructure will face increasing strain from the impacts of extreme weather and temperature rise — power outages, hospital closures, and damage to buildings.

At the same time, demand for care could grow. Climate change is expected to worsen more than half of known human pathogenic diseases over the next 25 years, expanding the range of fungal infections and increasing the risk of virusesand mosquito-borne diseases. Meanwhile, extreme heat will likely increasingly send people to the hospital.

Making significant changes to the way hospitals operate may seem daunting, but facilities can start small in their adaptations and create solutions unique to their needs.

An example of this approach can be found in Vietnam. About half of all hospitals in that country do not have a reliable source of water, whether that’s due to droughts, floods, or creeping saltwater intrusion. A result: patients often have to bring their own. Faced with this major obstacle to care, three rural hospitals in Vietnam embarked on projects to get more climate resilient by addressing water availability. The institutions each found innovative ways to obtain more water using solutions like rainwater catchment and storage systems, saline filtration, and better infrastructure to capture nearby streamflows.

“Unfortunately, we can expect climate change to increasingly threaten water supplies at health care facilities throughout Vietnam, so it is critical to act quickly with adaptation measures,” Angela Pratt, a WHO Representative in Vietnam, said in a news release.

As climate change impacts push health care systems into higher levels of risk, it’s vital that hospital leadership teams globally begin shaping plans for climate resiliency related to infrastructure and personnel to safeguard health care on a changing planet.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... itals.html

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NATO SUMMIT: Alliance Emissions Fuel Climate Breakdown
July 11, 2024

The only winners from the military alliance’s spending policy are weapons manufacturers, concludes a briefing authored by the Transnational Institute and several nonprofits.

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Royal Danish Navy frigate HDMS Triton patrols the seas around the Arctic, November 2022. (NATO/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

By Edward Carver
Common Dreams

The militaries of North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries emitted an estimated 233 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023, a sharp uptick that exacerbates climate breakdown and serves only to enrich weapons manufacturers, according to a briefing issued Monday by the Transnational Institute, a research and advocacy organization, and several other nonprofits.

The 32 national militaries together emitted more carbon than the country of Colombia, which has a population of about 52 million people, the briefing says. NATO countries’ military spending increased from about $1.21 trillion in 2022 to $1.34 trillion in 2023, thanks in part to the conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine. TNI used a spend-emission conversion factor to estimate the carbon cost of the spending.

The briefing’s authors warn that NATO’s spending targets must be abandoned or its emissions will continue to rise significantly in the next few years — despite a pledge to reduce emissions by 45 percent by 2030. Member countries have pledged to spend at least 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, and many have have already met or surpassed the target.

The authors note that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change determined that all sectors of the economy need to reduce emissions by 43 percent by 2030 from 2019 levels to keep global warming at or below the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C target.

“By 2030, we have to make a radical cut in emissions,” Nick Buxton, TNI’s communications manager, told The Guardian. “But the biggest investment we’re making worldwide, and in particularly NATO, is in military spending, which isn’t just not addressing the problem, but actually worsening the problem.”

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The United States accounts for more than two-thirds of NATO countries’ military spending and one-third of the world’s, which also surged in 2023. U.S. military spending increased by 24 percent from 2022 to 2023, and some leading Republicans in Congress have recently called for large increases.

A 2022 report from the Conflict and Environment Observatory, a research and advocacy group, estimated that military emissions accounted for 5.5 percent of all global carbon emissions. Estimates are difficult because lack of transparent reporting practices by many militaries, experts say.

The new briefing suggests that military spending could be diverted to climate finance for developing countries, which have been the subject of intense international negotiations in recent years, with rich countries slow to provide funding even as they spend profligately on their militaries, critics have argued.

“The climate is caught in the crossfire of war,” TNI said on social media. “We need peaceful solutions to conflicts if we are to defend our world. There is no secure nation on an unsafe planet.”

The “only winners” from NATO’s spending policy are weapons manufacturers, says the briefing, which states that backlogs of weapons orders at the 10 largest arms companies based in NATO member countries went up by an average of 13 percent in 2023.

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(Transnational Institute)

Current orders will lock in emissions for decades, as military systems are normally used for 30 or 40 years, the briefing warns.

For example, Lockheed Martin, a major defense manufacturer, has said that NATO countries will by 2030 fly 600 of its F-35 jets, which use 5,600 liters of oil an hour, even more than the F-16 jets they’re replacing, the briefing says.

“The legacy of this increased arms trade will be an ever more militarized world at a time of climate breakdown,” the authors wrote. “This military expenditure will fuel wars and conflict that will compound the impact on those made vulnerable by climate change.”

https://consortiumnews.com/2024/07/11/n ... breakdown/

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Erik Solheim: China is the indispensable nation for the green transition
Elaborating on comments he recently made in an interview with Global Times about China’s supposed ‘overcapacity’ in green products, Erik Solheim has written a concise and powerful opinion piece on the topic for China Daily. In the article, Solheim notes:

China is now dominant in nearly all green sectors. The nation accounts for 60 percent or more of the solar, wind and hydro technologies produced today, as well as electric cars and batteries. China is the indispensible nation for the green shift.

He further points out that the level of commitment and investment that led to China’s dominance in green technology is exactly what is needed to address the climate crisis. “I may be naive, but I thought this was exactly what the world desires. Massive investments in renewable energies, bringing down the price, and scaling green energies to new heights to enable China to achieve its carbon peak target well ahead of the 2030 deadline.”

China’s investment and innovation has resulted in a dramatic fall in the price of solar and wind energy – of at least 80 percent in the last decade. “This is largely, but, for sure, not solely, thanks to China. I thought this was what we all dreamed of.”

The author calls on the countries of the West to stop complaining about China’s supposed ‘overcapacity’ and instead learn from China’s example – “Chinese ‘overcapacity’ in green sectors should be admired, not criticised”. The US and its allies should be ramping up their own efforts in green technology, competing fairly and working together with China and other countries towards a sustainable future for humanity.

Erik Solheim is vice-president of the Green Belt and Road Coalition and former executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme. He spoke at our event Building a multipolar world – Ten years of the Belt and Road Initiative in November 2023.
In March, I visited Wuwei in Gansu province. I had to keep pinching myself. There were solar panels covering the desert with only the horizon interrupting my view. China Three Gorges Corporation and the Elion Resources Group of Inner Mongolia, the companies that have established the solar farm, have also developed a lot of wind energy.

I may be naive, but I thought this was exactly what the world desires. Massive investments in renewable energies, bringing down the price, and scaling green energies to new heights to enable China to achieve its carbon peak target well ahead of the 2030 deadline.

The visit of United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Beijing around the same time, prompted me to think differently. From the US’ perspective, the massive Chinese roll out of green technologies is not an enormous service to the world, but instead a problem. In Yellen’s view, China has overcapacity in the green sector.

But how can that be a problem?

I recall vividly when we left the climate talks in Copenhagen in 2009, some environmentalists were desperate, they saw almost no solution. Yes, former US president Barack Obama was there with then Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, along with German chancellor Angela Merkel, prime minister Manmohan Singh of India and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. But the outcomes were meager.

What no one contemplated departing from Copenhagen was that the price of solar energy would fall almost 80 percent and that of offshore wind energy by almost 70 percent in the next decade. This is largely, but, for sure, not solely, thanks to China. I thought this was what we all dreamed of. Some governments, including the Joe Biden administration, have argued that we need a green shift in production and that it has to be innovative, at scale and cheap.

The argument about “overcapacity” is against common sense. Interestingly it is also contrary to all economic theories, starting from Adam Smith. My nation, Norway, has huge “overcapacity” in oil and in fish. We sell a lot more oil than we can consume at home and we catch a lot more cod and salmon than we can eat ourselves. That “overcapacity” makes it possible for us to buy cellular phones from the US, wine from France and electric cars from China.

No nation in modern history has benefited more from overcapacity than the US. In the middle of the 20th century, the US accounted for nearly half the global economy. The nation had overcapacity in nearly all sectors and it made the US very strong. Today Silicon Valley has an enormous overcapacity in digital products. If Silicon Valley only produced for California or for the US, no one would ever have heard of that little valley.

China is now dominant in nearly all green sectors. The nation accounts for 60 percent or more of the solar, wind and hydro technologies produced today, as well as electric cars and batteries. China is the indispensable nation for the green shift. It is possible to go green without China, but it will be a lot more expensive and thus much slower.

The West should get up early in the morning and respond to China’s lead by pursuing innovation and green competition. Protectionism is a race to the bottom. Green competition is a race to the top.

China invited Tesla to make its gigafactory in Shanghai, to bring a “catfish” into the Chinese electric vehicle market. It forced many smaller Chinese competitors to swim faster. It worked, and BYD, Geely, Xpeng, Nio and many others are now strong contenders. Tech companies such as Huawei and Xiaomi are also joining the contest.

The West should similarly invite BYD and CATL, LONGi and Tongwei, Goldwind and Envision to invest in Europe and America. That may tempt Western companies to run faster.

Last year I visited CATL. It is located in the small town of Ningde in Fujian province. It is the world’s leading electric battery maker, providing batteries to Tesla and many others. CATL was full of praise for Germany’s BMW who they repeatedly said had helped them off the ground, by being a demanding customer and sharing technology and expertise.

Such partnerships can be replicated, only with Chinese companies in the lead.

It takes two to tango. The West needs to respond constructively to the competition from China. China can also help this process, through dialogue and partnerships.

Of course all nations want jobs in their own country. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched his “Make in India” strategy. French President Emmanuel Mac ron is concerned about jobs in France, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz with the future of the German car industry. It is highly unlikely that China will be able just to export green products from home. Chinese companies will be called upon to create jobs in Europe and America, in Africa and Asia. It’s great to see BYD investing in Brazil, CATL in Hungary and LONGi in Vietnam. We need a lot more of this.

China should also look favorably into companies complaining about a level playing field in the Chinese market. There is for instance hardly any outside wind power equipment makers left in China. Maybe they are not able to compete? But a dialogue to assure there is fair mutual access to markets, will calm the skeptics.

China was also responsible for 38 percent of the total global clean tech spending in 2023, investing an impressive $676 billion. Last year, China invested $890 billion in clean energy sectors and it added 300 gigawatt of solar and wind energy to the grid, that is 10 times the total hydro production in Norway which keeps all its inhabitants warm in winter, with plenty of electricity available for any demand.

Chinese “overcapacity” in green sectors should be admired, not criticized. But there should be a profound dialogue to make sure all nations benefit.

https://socialistchina.org/2024/07/10/e ... ransition/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Wed Jul 17, 2024 1:59 pm

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Melbourne city skyline seen from Preston in the northern suburbs PHOTO: Adobe Stock

Cities must be adapted for climate change
Originally published: Red Flag on July 8, 2024 by Erin Russell (more by Red Flag) | (Posted Jul 13, 2024)

In the past few years, whole towns have been wiped out by fire and flood, suburbs have been inundated by floodwaters or storm surges in Sydney and Melbourne, and extreme heat is putting more people in hospitals.

We need an urgent and coordinated response to prepare for heatwaves, rising sea levels and increasingly frequent floods. But governments and property developers won’t listen; they aren’t interested.

Consultancy firm KPMG estimates that 10 million people in Australia live in areas that face “extreme heat-related risks”. And a 2020 study published in The Lancet Planetary Health journal estimated that nearly 37,000 deaths in Australia between 2006 and 2017 were associated with heat.

Yet many homes and workplaces are not designed for extreme weather. While new buildings are required to meet specific energy efficiency standards, the standards are based on average temperatures from 1990 to 2015. Most buildings were constructed before the standards were implemented, so they need to be upgraded to meet higher standards.

There are many ways to improve the temperature regulation of a building. Timber frames, double glazing on windows and proper insulation make a difference. Occupants should be able to move from one side of the building to the other with the sun’s movement and have access to a cross breeze. “Green and blue infrastructure”—such as plants grown on walls and rooftops, sustained with rainwater and recycled water—can also reduce a building’s heat without increasing water usage.

This is a critical issue for society’s most vulnerable, especially the elderly and people with disabilities, who are most affected by heat waves. A 2018 Senate inquiry into the effects of climate change on housing, buildings and infrastructure found that improved housing energy efficiency would have reduced the number of excess deaths during one Melbourne heatwave from 375 to 37.

But most working-class people struggle to pay existing bills. A 2020 Australian Council of Social Service survey also found that more than 60 percent of low-income households struggle to keep their homes cool in summer. That was before the huge spikes in gas and electricity prices over the last two years. Forking out for building upgrades is beyond most people’s means. And renters rely on landlords, who are not known for their generosity. So it can’t be left to individuals.

Air conditioning helps. But energy costs are making it a luxury for a growing number of households. Then there is the issue of power outages during heatwaves, caused by both high demand and the impact of high temperatures on power generation. Governments could help by improving electricity equipment and shifting grids towards renewables and better battery storage.

It is not just buildings that will have to change; cities will, too. There is a glaring need for more urban green spaces. The urban heat island effect is a serious problem. Built-up areas lacking vegetation and containing dark, heat-absorbing materials like asphalt can be 1-7 degrees warmer than surrounding areas.

According to the 2021 report “Temperature Check: Greening Australia’s Warming Cities”, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, green spaces have declined in every major Australian city except Hobart over the last decade. While Hobart had increased its green space, it did so by only 1 percent. Parks and nature reserves are not viewed favourably in the profit-driven housing industry, which views every centimetre of land as something to profit from.

When constructing new residential areas, developers often clear entire natural habitats before building on them. Even if trees are replanted, they take years to grow into a substantial canopy that creates a cooling effect. To prevent habitat loss, we should focus on building upwards in existing developed areas rather than continuing to expand the city fringes.

Another problem is that developers continue building in areas at risk of flooding and rising sea levels. While it may be satisfying to imagine the coastal mansions of the super-wealthy being destroyed, many regular people will also be affected and won’t have the means to relocate.

We must strategically plan a retreat from coastlines to prepare for future floods and rising sea levels. Building new housing estates in high-risk areas should be prohibited, and more seawalls must be constructed to mitigate the risks. Yet, as one contributor to the Senate inquiry put it:

“If you … need to build a sea wall, you cannot generate a return on a sea wall so there will be zero private sector incentive to build a sea wall. But at the same time, the whole area will benefit from increased resilience to storm surge. So then how do you build an economic model which incentivises investment into public infrastructure, which then creates private sector incentives?”

The straightforward answer is to eliminate the need to consider private sector incentives by ensuring that more public development is carried out for human need rather than profits.

It has been six years since the Senate inquiry. The government finally responded to it on 2 May. To each of the 32 recommendations it gave the same response: “The government notes this recommendation. However, given the passage of time since this report was tabled, a substantive Government response is no longer appropriate”.

Another year, another report. This year we got the results of the “climate risk assessment report”, out of which a “national adaptation plan” is being developed. But after decades of both major parties kicking the can down the road, we should not be holding high hopes for the Albanese government to deliver the sorts of sweeping changes that we need.

https://mronline.org/2024/07/13/cities- ... te-change/

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Efforts to Build Climate Resilience Do Not Protect Human Health
Posted on July 14, 2024 by Lambert Strether

Lambert here: I wish “resilience” weren’t one of those words. But it is. Like “you do you.”

By David Introcaso, Ph.D., a health care research and policy consultant.. Originally published at Undark.

Building climate resilience — an ability to adapt to climate disasters — defines the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ response to the climate crisis. The stated purpose of HHS’s Climate Action Plan, is “to enhance resilience and adaptation to climate change throughout the activities of HHS.” The department’s primary climate-related programmatic effort is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Building Resilience Against Climate Effects, or BRACE, which “allows state health officials to develop strategies and programs to help communities prepare for the health effects of climate change.”

That HHS has adopted resilience as policy without explanation or public discussion is concerning. When unpacked, building resilience is an incoherent response by the federal entity responsible for protecting Americans’ health in the face of climate disaster.

Ecologists first used resilience in the 1970s to describe the capacity of non-human living systems to adapt to danger or disaster. The concept has since become adulterated. The federal government defines it simply as “the ability to adapt to changing conditions and prepare for, withstand, and rapidly recover from disruptions.” Resilience now assumes the ability of organizations, communities, and individuals to quickly return to business or life as usual after calamity. Resilience encourages the growth of a culture of preparedness because a future defined by endless cycles of disaster and recovery requires continual adaptation. Building health care climate resilience means accommodating, withstanding, or recovering from air pollution resulting from fossil fuel combustion and anthropogenic warming.

For health care policymakers, building climate resilience presents several insurmountable problems.

Resilience fails to appreciate that harms to human health caused by the climate crisis are innumerable and unrelenting, and potentially impact everyone, everywhere, always. For example, the World Health Organization concluded in 2022 that 99 percent of the global population is exposed to air pollution that threatens their health. More specifically, a recent study concluded that for the more than 60 million Medicare beneficiaries, no safe threshold for exposure exists for the chronic effect of fine particulate matter (particles 2.5 micrometers or less in diameter), largely the result of fossil fuel combustion. Another 2022 study found that nearly 60 percent of known infectious diseases can be aggravated by hazards or pathways related to climate breakdown.

In 2022, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report concluded that the prospects for climate-resilient development become increasingly limited if current greenhouse gas emissions do not rapidly decline in the near term, especially if average global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). Emissions have not rapidly declined. They are the highest on record. And for 12 consecutive months ending in June, global warming averaged 1.64 Celsius. Consecutive months of record temperatures caused the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization to announce in March, “The WMO community is sounding the Red Alert to the world.” In a June speech, the U.N. Secretary-General concluded, “We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell.”

The inherent problem with resilience is that — as Brad Evans and Julian Reid, Sarah Bracke, and others explained more than a decade ago — it’s not a solution but rather a cause. Resilience thinking assumes danger or disaster is endemic, a fait accompli. Outside of our control, climate disaster is made acceptable. As such, resilience leaves us apprehensive about the future or denies the capacity to imagine one beyond climate breakdown. With our lives in permanent danger, not securable, resilience is a form of subjectification, negating human agency.

Those who are the least climate resilient are moreover minoritized populations. They pay the greatest climate penalty. They are forced to accept the conditions of their own vulnerability. In effect, resilience creates a permanent climate-at-risk population. Climate apartheid is a given.

Living life permanently exposed to climate disaster, having to forever adapt or react to climate threats, is — in a word — exhausting. Roy Scranton described it in his book, “Learning to Die in the Anthropocene,” as continuing to act “as if tomorrow will be just like yesterday, growing less and less prepared for each new disaster as it comes, and more and more desperately invested in a life we can’t sustain.” Not surprisingly, Ajay Singh Chaudhary titled his recently published study of climate politics “The Exhausted of the Earth.” Chaudhary wrote, “Resilience is the categorical imperative of business-as-usual; it is crisis managers buying time. For others, resilience is exhausting.”

Resilience itself can become a significant threat. When resilience succeeds, it can become indistinguishable from the climate disaster it sought to overcome. In health care, for example, Medicaid and other payers recently decided to pay for air conditioners — and, presumably, for the carbon pollution they emit.

Inherently reactionary, resilience teaches apathy, fatalism, and a sense of perverse optimism because building resilience makes it impossible to attain a desired future or conceive of a changing world. Life lacks a sense of coherence, or what medical sociologist Aaron Antonovsky called salutogenesis. In doing so, resilience negates or at least undermines resistance or efforts to prevent climate disaster. Resistance is futile because climate threats and disaster are, again, inescapable.

Resilience is an attractive political policy because it gives license to a climate disaster–ridden world. Human life, like non-human living systems, is a permanent process of ongoing adaptation to disaster. As Evans and Reid wrote in 2013, policymakers “want us to abandon the dream of ever achieving security and embrace danger as a condition of possibility for life in the future.” Ecological disaster is viewed as necessary for our development. In the words of philosopher Frederic Jameson, “it is easier to imagine the end of the world than to imagine the end of capitalism.” Chaudhary argued that resilience apologizes for exploitative resource use and environmental degradation: “Attachment to the ideal of resilience only maintains a world which demands it.”

With resilience there is, in effect, no climate crisis. Neither directed federal financing nor stringent federal regulations to eliminate GHG emissions are necessary. Instead, as Adrienne Buller explained in her 2022 book, “The Value of a Whale,” a combination of regulatory relief and greater prioritization of market efficiency is the superior approach to climate policy. Resilience allows for a “political imaginary that refuses to envisage anything other than,” Evan and Reid concluded, “the bleak current state of political affairs.” Resilience is nihilism, a will to nothingness, value-free governing. Chaudhary defined it as politically inert because resilience simply “counsels quiescence and parsimonious austerity.”

For HHS, resilience as policy explains why the department has failed under the Biden administration to promulgate any Medicare or Medicaid regulatory rules requiring the health care industry to reduce GHG emissions or improve climate-related health care — creating, for example, specific climate-related diagnostic codes and quality performance measures. It is cruelly ironic that HHS allows the health care industry to emit an estimated 553 million metric tons (610 million tons) of greenhouse gases annually, because these emissions disproportionately harm Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries. Despite HHS’s mission to “enhance the health and well-being of all Americans,” resilience allows the department to simply publish a monthly Climate and Health Outlook forecasting how the public’s health will be harmed by unavoidable climate disasters. Per the June report, HHS’s responsibility amounts to noting that “tornadoes can happen anywhere and anytime,” “there are many different types of flooding,” the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is predicted to be “above-normal,” and “wildfires affect health in many ways.”

For HHS, climate resilience leaves the department the author of its own endangerment. For Americans, we’re left hopeless.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... ealth.html

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Capitalism’s New Age of Plagues. Part 7: Wildlife farms and wet markets
July 14, 2024
Commercial farming of wild animals as luxury food for the rich triggered a global pandemic

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Vendors in wet markets sell a wide range of vegetables, fruit and meats.

Part 7 of my article on the causes and implications of global capitalism’s descent into an era when infectious diseases are ever more common. My views are subject to continuing debate and testing in practice. I look forward to your comments, criticisms, and corrections.

Part 1: An Existential Threat
Part 2: Relentless Viral Evolution
Part 3: Systematically Unprepared
Part 4: Deforestation and Spillover
Part 5: The Pandemic Machines
Part 6: China’s Livestock Revolution
Part 7: Wildlife Farms and Wet Markets
by Ian Angus.

In the late 1980s, China’s government began encouraging farmers who had been squeezed out of swine and poultry markets to switch to non-traditional livestock. The 1988 National Peoples Congress declared that wildlife was a resource to be used for economic development, and in 2004 the commercial breeding of 54 wild species was officially approved. National and state agencies were instructed to “to actively promote the breeding and market supply of terrestrial wild animals for which mature breeding technology had been developed.”[1]

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These figures do not include the illegal wildlife trade, which is extensive. (Click for larger image.)

That opening attracted private investment and rapid growth: in 2016 the Chinese Academy of Engineering estimated that the legal wildlife industry employed over 14 million people and sales totaled close to US$74 billion a year. Detailed statistics are not available, but in 2020 it was reported that nearly 20,000 farms were raising wild animals for sale as food.[2] Species involved included bamboo rats, pangolins, peacocks, palm civets, raccoon dogs, porcupines, boars, and many others.

The traditional food myth

Articles on the wild animal trade in China frequently describe eating exotic animals as an ancient feature of Chinese culture, perpetuated by ignorant peasants who have migrated to the cities. Often this is offered as a racist caricature, proof that Chinese eating practices are unclean, cruel and barbaric.

In fact, as Dr. Peter J. Li, a leading authority on animal welfare in China, says, “the majority of the people in China do not eat wildlife animals.”[3]

“The claim that such wildlife consumption is traditional, that it can be traced back to ancient China, and that there is a demand for wild animal meats is misinformation spread and perpetuated by the country’s wildlife breeders and owners of exotic food restaurants. I have studied China’s wildlife farming and restaurant industry for the last two decades. Never have I found evidence to support the claim that China had a tradition of widespread wildlife consumption. …

“China’s massive wildlife farming operations and related businesses such as the production of wildlife feed, trans-provincial transport of live captive-bred and hunted animals, production of veterinary drugs, and the hundreds of thousands of exotic food restaurants are part of a business empire that has arisen in the last 40 years. Attributing this wildlife-exploiting empire to traditional Chinese culture, and thereby suggesting that it is something to be proud of, is a tactic designed by businesses to shut up the critics.”[4]

In a 2020 survey, 97% of Chinese citizens opposed eating wild animals, and 79% opposed the use of fur and other wildlife products.[5] A 2014 study found that eating wildlife was part of “a fashionable lifestyle and symbol of elite status,” and that “consumers with higher income and higher educational background had higher wildlife consumption rates, and formed the main consumer group of wild animals.”[6]

Most wild animals bred for food are sold to restaurants that cater to the urban elite — managers and officials who can afford expensive meals and for whom eating and serving exotic animals is a respected form of conspicuous consumption.

(It should be noted that conspicuous consumption of wildlife by the rich isn’t unique to China. “American trophy hunters pay big money to kill animals overseas and import over 126,000 wildlife trophies per year … just for bragging rights.”[7])

Wild animal farming, then, is not a continuation of traditional practices, but an extension of the industrialization and commodification of all livestock — in this case, the industrialization and commodification of luxury foods for the wealthy. This is not tradition — it is modern capitalism in action.

Wet markets

Wet markets are retail centers for the sale of perishable foods — they are wet because water and ice keep the produce fresh and clean. Most sell only butchered meat, seafood, vegetables and fruit. For hundreds of millions of people around the world, particularly in east and southeast Asia, they are essential sources of food and nutrition. Despite common western misconceptions, live animals are not sold and slaughtered in all wet markets, and only a minority of live animal vendors — primarily wholesalers who sell to restaurants and caterers — deal in farmed or hunted wild animals.

Nevertheless, the wildlife trade can pose significant dangers to human health. The president of the Chinese Medical Association and head of the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases drew this conclusion from the 2002-3 SARS epidemic,

“Wildlife markets represent a dangerous source of possible new infections that could undermine the prevention of SARS…. Many markets are poorly managed and insanitary, so cross infection, interspecies transmission, amplification, genetic convergence, and mixing of coronavirus may be taking place. Animal traders standing in close proximity to these infected animals may be affected, as may the food processors who slaughter infected animals in restaurant kitchens, causing SARS-CoV to spread from wildlife to humans — after which it may spread from human to human.”[8]

More recently, a report published by the United Nations Environment Program warned that, “any significant increase in the farming of wild animals risks ‘recapitulating’ the increases in zoonoses that likely accompanied the first domestication of animals in the Neolithic era, some 12,000 years ago.”[9]

“In theory, wildlife farms could provide proper sanitary conditions that reduce the risk of disease transmission. But in reality, the risk of disease transmission with wildlife farms is significant. …

“A mix of animal species are traded in markets — wild, captive-bred, farmed and domesticated — in transport vehicles and in market cages. …

“The close contact between humans and different species of wildlife in the global wildlife trade can facilitate animal-to-human spillover of new viruses that are capable of infecting diverse host species. This can trigger emerging disease events with higher pandemic potential because these viruses are more likely to amplify via human-to- human transmission, and thus spread widely.”[10]

Relentless evolution

Viruses never stop evolving, and coronaviruses evolve particularly quickly. In the nature of things, we see only evolution’s successes, because the failures don’t survive or reproduce — so we have no way of knowing how many mutated viruses have jumped unsuccessfully from wild animals to farmed animals.


Palm Civet

What we do know is that sometime in 2002, a previously unknown coronavirus, probably recently evolved in horseshoe bats, infected farmed palm civets in southern China. Infected civets were transported to wet markets in Guangdong province, where the virus spread to other civets, mutating further before spilling over to humans.[11]

The result was Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome — SARS — the first pandemic of the 21st Century. The pneumonia-like disease broke out in Guangdong in November 2002, then spread to 29 other countries, infecting about 8100 people and killing at least 774.

A strong connection between the initial outbreak and live animal markets was obvious from the beginning. “Around 40% of early patients were food handlers with probable animal contact; most of these patients lived closer to wet markets than to animal farms, suggesting that markets, not farms, were the initial source of transmission.”[12] Bans on the sale of small mammals for food, combined with a mass cull of farmed civets, contributed to the rapid suppression of SARS.

Unfortunately, the bans were soon lifted, under pressure from food industry lobbyists. Over the next 15 years, industrial wildlife farming expanded alongside industrial farming of poultry and pigs, using the same production methods, the same transportation systems, and often the same markets.

Eventually — we can even say inevitably — relentless evolution produced another new coronavirus, this one less deadly but much more contagious than SARS. It initially formed in wild bats and then jumped to farmed wild animals that were taken for sale in Wuhan, China’s seventh largest city. The exact transmission path is still not known, but late in 2019 the new virus jumped to humans in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, the largest live animal market in central China.

Speculation that the virus came from a laboratory had some credibility in the early days of the pandemic but the idea has long since been refuted. The most recent and complete summary of published research found no evidence that the virus came from a lab, and concluded that “the available data clearly point to a natural zoonotic emergence within, or closely linked to, the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan.”[13]

A virus on the move

In the last two weeks of 2019, 41 people in Wuhan were hospitalized with a previously unknown, pneumonia-like disease, and two-thirds of those had had direct exposure to the Huanan Market. On January 1, authorities shut down and disinfected the market, but the virus had already escaped.

Wuhan has long been an important transportation hub, but the number of high-speed trains, express highways and flights connecting it to the rest of China and the world has increased radically since 2000.

“Travel times between Wuhan and Beijing or Guangzhou dropped from about twelve to four hours, and annual railway passengers increased from about 1 billion in 2000 to over 3.3 billion in 2018. … In 2000, Wuhan’s main airport served 1.7 million passengers with 34,000 domestic flights. By 2018, over 27.1 million passengers traveled through Wuhan’s airport on 203,000 flights, including sixty-three international routes.”[14]

Those connections, direct products of China’s spectacular economic growth, transported the new virus at unprecedented speed. It was carried by people who could not have known they were infected, because SARS-CoV-2 is contagious for several days before symptoms appear. Literally millions of people left Wuhan in January, most travelling home for the annual Spring Festival, and — as always happens in epidemics — many hoping to escape the mysterious new disease.

Within weeks, the virus had reached most Chinese provinces and at least a dozen other countries in Asia, Europe and North America. On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern,” the official term for a pandemic. On February 11, the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses confirmed that the new virus was genetically related to the one that caused SARS in 2002, and named it SARS-CoV-2. On the same day, the WHO named the disease COVID-19.[15]

The threat remains

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Chiba imposed a permanent ban on farming wildlife for food. If it is effectively enforced, that is a public health measure that other countries should emulate, but it is far from being an adequate response to the zoonotic disease threat. Two critical problems stand out.

First, the ban applies only to farms that raise wild animals for food — representing less than a quarter of wildlife industry revenues. Farms that raise wild animals for fur, traditional medicines and other purposes are exempt, even though some of those animals are known to carry coronaviruses and other potential pathogens, so many thousands of wild animal (and wild virus) breeding operations remain active. The animals may not be eaten or sold in wet markets, but since most viral diseases can be contracted by breathing or physical contact, they can infect and be spread by the people who work with them.

Second, and more important, the ban does not affect the poultry, swine, and other “domesticated” animals that are raised in facilities that are far larger and more numerous than wildlife farms. As discussed in Part 6, there is a continuing drive — strongly supported by the government’s economic development policies — to build ever larger concentrated animal feeding operations, increasing the danger of new and larger zoonotic disease outbreaks.

As Li Zhang writes, the only effective method of reversing the trend towards more zoonotic diseases would be to “dismantle those unsustainable agroindustries … and deconcentrate both animals and humans from unban metropolises.”[16] If megafarms continue to grow and spread, in China, the United States and elsewhere, it is very likely that industrial livestock production will cause another global pandemic.

Footnotes

[1] Amanda Whitfort, “COVID-19 and Wildlife Farming in China: Legislating to Protect Wild Animal Health and Welfare in the Wake of a Global Pandemic,” Journal of Environmental Law 33, no. 1 (April 23, 2021): 57–84.

[2] Michael Standaert, “Coronavirus Closures Reveal Vast Scale of China’s Secretive Wildlife Farm Industry,” The Guardian, February 25, 2020, sec. Environment.

[3] Peter J. Li, Vox interview, March 6, 2020.

[4] Peter J. Li, Animal Welfare in China: Culture, Politics and Crisis (University of Sydney, N.S.W: Sydney University Press, 2021), 213–14.

[5] Anna McConkie, “Illegal Wildlife Trade in China,” Ballard Brief, Fall 2021.

[6] Li Zhang and Feng Yin, “Wildlife Consumption and Conservation Awareness in China: A Long Way to Go,” Biodiversity and Conservation 23, no. 9 (August 2014): 2279.

[7] Humane Society of the United States, “Banning Trophy Hunting,” 2024.

[8] Nanshan Zhong and Guangqiao Zeng, “What We Have Learnt from SARS Epidemics in China,” BMJ 333, no. 7564 (August 19, 2006): 389–91.

[9] Delia Grace Randolph, “Preventing the Next Pandemic: Zoonotic Diseases and How to Break the Chain of Transmission” (Nairobi: United Nations Environment Program, 2020), 16.

[10] Delia Grace Randolph, 33.

[11] Jie Cui, Fang Li, and Zheng-Li Shi, “Origin and Evolution of Pathogenic Coronaviruses,” Nature Reviews Microbiology 17, no. 3 (March 2019): 181–92.

[12] Bing Lin et al., “A Better Classification of Wet Markets Is Key to Safeguarding Human Health and Biodiversity,” The Lancet Planetary Health 5, no. 6 (June 2021): e386–94.

[13] (Edward C. Holmes, “The Emergence and Evolution of SARS-CoV-2,” Annual Review of Virology, April 17, 2024. See also Phillip Markolin’s excellent technical report, “Treacherous Ancestry: An Extraordinary Hunt for the Ghosts of SARS-CoV-2,” Protagonist Science, April 11, 2024.

[14] Li Zhang, The Origins of COVID-19: China and Global Capitalism (Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 2021), 34–35.

[15] Dali L. Yang, Wuhan: How the COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China Spiraled out of Control (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2024), 2.

[16] Zhang, The Origins of COVID-19, 133.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2024/0 ... t-markets/

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Figure 1. 2023 was the Earth’s warmest year since modern record-keeping began in 1880.

The predicament of climate scientists on the road to a super tropical Earth
Originally published: The predicament of climate scientists on the road to a super tropical Earth on July 11, 2024 by Andrew Glikson (more by The predicament of climate scientists on the road to a super tropical Earth) (Posted Jul 16, 2024)

As temperatures in large parts of the Earth are soaring (cf. 52.3°C in Delhi, flames engulf large regions in California, tornadoes ravage the Gulf of Mexico states, severe drought starve populations in southern Africa and climate extremes continue to taking over large parts of the Earth. Much like oncologists advising patients and their families of a terminal illness, so do climate scientists agonizing while reporting the advent of dangerous warming as temperatures rise and tipping points are broken. But while climate change has become more than evident, there is a heavy price to be paid by those who try to alert the public.

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Figure 2. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS analysis (Hansen et al., 2024).

One of the glaring misconceptions, which ignores the dispersal of greenhouse gases throughout the atmosphere, is as if their global effects depend on the country from which the carbon is extracted. Further, politically originated stigmas labels scientists as some kind of “alarmists” or “Cassandras”. A threat of institutional penalties affects scientist’s jobs. Along with the dominion of vested pro-carbon interests these factors drive humanity blind toward the Sixth Mass Extinction of Species.

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Figure 3. A prolonged dry spell in southern Africa in early 2024 scorched crops and threatened food security for millions of people.

A number of prominent climate scientists representing the scientific consensus on climate change, as documented by the IPCC, have tried their best to convey the message in public forums, but were mostly shunned by conservative media. At the same time many climate scientists tend to regard the IPCC-based climate consensus as too optimistic. An article titled When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job (Richardson, 2015) states …

Among many climate scientists, gloom has set in. Things are worse than we think, but they can’t really talk about it… Climate scientists have been so distracted and intimidated by the relentless campaign against them that they tend to avoid any statements that might get them labelled “alarmists”, instead retreating into a world of charts and data.

A s stated by Noam Chomsky:

It’s interesting that these public climate debates leave out almost entirely a third part of the debate, namely a very substantial number of scientists, competent scientists, who think that the scientific consensus is much too optimistic. A group of scientists at MIT came out with a report about a year ago describing what they called the most comprehensive modelling of the climate that had ever been done. Their conclusion, which was unreported in public media as far as I know, was that the major scientific consensus of the international commission is just way off, it’s much too optimistic… their own conclusion was that unless we terminate use of fossil fuels almost immediately, it’s finished. We’ll never be able to overcome the consequences. That’s avoided in the debate.

Antarctica is losing ice at an average rate of more than 150 billion tons per year, and Greenland is losing more than 270 billion tons per year, adding to sea level rise. Some glaciologists and Arctic scientists consider the accelerated rate of glacial melt in Greenland and West Antarctica may result in little remaining ice over these terrains toward the end of the century, leading to sea level rise on the scale of many meters, with catastrophic consequences for coastal and river valley population centres.

The Arctic Ocean contains vast amounts of carbon accumulated during the Pleistocene ice ages. The greenhouse effect of methane traps up to 100 times more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide within a 5 year period, and 72 times more within a 20 year period. Atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their climb during 2023 according to the latest measurements from NOAA and CIRES scientists. The current CO₂ growth rate threatens an irreversible shift in the state of the Earth climate through looming tipping points, including transient cooling events induced by flow of cold ice melt water into the oceans from Greenland and Antarctica; Glikson (2019).

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Figure 4. Carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

There is little evidence that climate science had much of an effect on the outcome of the Paris Agreement. The warming target of +1.5°C has already been breached over the continents or is masked by the reflective albedo of transient sulphur aerosols. At the current growth rate of ~3 ppm/year CO₂ will rise closer to the stability threshold of the polar ice sheets.

Little encouragement can be gained from the non-binding promises emerging from climate conferences, which James Hansen described as a “fraud”.

While the implications of the global climate emergency have reached the defence establishment, the world continues to spend near to $2.4 trillion each year on the military instead on the protection of life.

As the portents for a major mass extinction of species are rising—who will defend life on Earth?

https://mronline.org/2024/07/16/the-pre ... cal-earth/

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Climate activists outside an incinerator in Aberdeen, July 13, 2024. (Photo: Climate Camp Scotland)

Climate activists shuts down Aberdeen incinerator choking working-class kids
Originally published: Morning Star Online on July 14, 2024 by Matt Kerr (more by Morning Star Online) | (Posted Jul 17, 2024)

SOME 100 climate activists have shut down an Aberdeen incinerator in the heart of the city’s most deprived community, Torry.

A £150 million waste-to-energy plant sited just 300 yards from a primary school and burning a staggering 150,000 tonnes of unrecycleable waste a year was brought to a standstill on Saturday as Climate Camp Scotland and local campaigners stood together on the picket line.

Demanding an end to private profiteering from pollution, the residents renewed their opposition to the plant, a joint project between Acciona Ltd, its operator Indaver UK, and Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire and Moray councils which opened, to local fury, in December despite a national moratorium on new incinerators.

Karryghan, an Edinburgh climate activist who joined the action, said:

Whether this is the Scottish government missing its ‘world-leading’ targets, or the continuing oil and gas projects from UK governments, this system makes promises but never puts words into action.

The system that allows energy companies to make record billion-pound profits from polluting communities like Torry must be replaced. A fair world must have the interests of everyday people and their communities at the heart of it.

Ishbel Shand, a local resident engaged in a battle to stop the community’s sole remaining green space, St Fittick’s Park, being lost to oil-industry billionaire Sir Ian Wood’s Scottish and UK government-backed greenwashing plans for a carbon capture and grey hydrogen “energy transition zone,” also joined the picket.

She said:

This incinerator is a grotesque building, squatting in our community like a great cockroach and converting non-renewable natural resources into toxic ash and carbon dioxide.

It is a malign symbol of the rampant consumerism that is destroying our planet. This isn’t energy from waste: it exists to waste energy.

How on Earth did this ever become acceptable?

Fellow picket Scottish Green MSP Maggie Chapman said:

For decades, Torry has borne the brunt of industrial development without seeing the benefits.

Old Torry was demolished for oil and gas developments in the ’70s. Torry lost its beach at Nigg Bay to the south harbour.

And it has to deal with the waste from the city and the shire, with the incinerator and sewage works looming over communities.

With life expectancy in Torry more than 10 years lower than elsewhere in Aberdeen, this inequality and injustice must stop.

We need an end to private profiteering and fossil capitalism. Torry needs justice.

https://mronline.org/2024/07/17/climate ... lass-kids/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Fri Jul 19, 2024 3:08 pm

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Ariel view of the shrinking Greenland ice sheet, one of four major Earth system elements that is collapsing. (Photo: Wikimedia/U.S. Geological Survey)

Capitalism kills: The case for ecosocialism
Originally published: Green Left on July 10, 2024 - Issue 1410 by Susan Price (more by Green Left) | (Posted Jul 18, 2024)

To say capitalism kills is not hyperbole: it is simply incompatible with continuing life on Earth.

From what Karl Marx described as the “original expropriation” of wealth and resources by the imperialist powers in the Americas, to the enslavement of African and Indigenous peoples, to the land theft by English pastoralists in Australia, capital accumulation and capitalist pursuit of profit have outweighed respect for human life and the environment.

Amid the threat of world war and nuclear annihilation and the horrors of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza–the choice between barbarism and ecosocialism is sharply posed today.

Global warming and catastrophic climate change pose an existential threat while fossil fuel capitalists and the governments that do their bidding put profits and economic growth ahead of planetary survival.

Tipping points
Former National Aeronautical Space Administration climate scientist James Hansen predicted in January that by May the 1.5°C warming ceiling would be “passed for all practical purposes”.

Hansen contributed this to the El Nino weather pattern and more lastingly, the decrease in Earth’s reflectivity due to diminished sea ice and cloud cover. He was correct.

Beyond 1.5°C, it is likely that four major Earth system elements–the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctic ice sheet, the tropic coral reefs and the boreal permafrost–will start collapsing, even if we cut emissions rapidly.

Global concentrations of carbon dioxide hit 421 parts per million (ppm) in June, a 50% increase on pre-industrial times and the highest in millions of years. The latest reading from Mauna Loa in Hawaii shows the world at around 426 ppm of CO2. Carbon dioxide levels were around 280 ppm for almost 6000 years of human civilisation.

Higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere are trapping heat and driving climate change, resulting in more extreme weather events.

In Europe, heat-related mortality has risen by about 30% in the past two decades.

In Australia, 66% of all heat-related deaths occur in areas of socioeconomic disadvantage.

The countries of the Global North are responsible for around 90% of all cumulative emissions that are driving climate breakdown, yet the South suffers 80‒90% of the economic costs and damages inflicted by climate breakdown, and around 99% of all climate-related deaths.

Egypt’s heat wave in June raised temperatures to 50.9°C–the highest temperature ever recorded in the country and in the African continent.

A heat wave hit Pakistan and India in late May, making those countries the hottest places on Earth with air temperatures above 53°C.

A deadly heat wave just killed 1300 people on their pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia. The country was hit by flash flooding a month ago.

Heat waves, prolonged drought and increased dry lightning sparked deadly fires in Chile in February, killing more than 100 people.

Storms and catastrophic flooding in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul left more than 170 people dead and displaced more than 600,000 in April—May.

The only way to prevent catastrophic climate change is to radically reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and urgently intervene to repair and restore the climate, including drawing down existing CO2 from the atmosphere. Climate financing for mitigation and adaptation measures and technology transfers from the rich nations to the poorest nations are urgently needed.

However, effective action is being blocked and in many cases reversed by governments in the service of fossil fuel interests.

If we need more evidence as to why preventing catastrophic climate change is incompatible with capitalism, while investment in renewable energy has nearly doubled, profits from fossil fuels remain higher. Just 100 fossil fuel corporations account for 71% of global GHG emissions.

Since the Paris Agreement on climate was adopted in 2016, the world’s 60 biggest banks have committed A$10.4 trillion to the fossil fuel industry and governments continue to subsidise the industry to the tune of US$7 trillion, or 7.1% of world gross domestic product, according to the International Monetary Fund.

In Australia this amounted to $14.5 billion in 2023—24, a rise of 31% on the previous year, according to the Australia Institute.

Biodiversity and food production
Land-use change, intensive livestock production, wildlife trade and climate change are all linked to the emergence of pathogens with the potential to jump from animals to humans, such as SARS COV-2, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, which has killed 7.1 million people, according to the World Health Organisation.

A small number of pharmaceutical capitalists profited heavily from the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, the total global pharmaceutical market was estimated at around US$1.6 trillion. New York based Pfizer, responsible for COVID-19 vaccines, has about 9% of the global market share.

Countries of the Global North with strong pharmaceutical industries are still blocking consensus for a global pandemic treaty, which would provide for nations to give access to pathogen data in exchange for automatic access to vaccines, medications and tests developed using those data.

Meanwhile, Avian Flu (H5N1), which emerged in 1997 in China and jumped to humans in South East Asia, with a mortality rate of 40‒50%, is spreading among animals, impacting the world’s biodiversity. According to experts, H5N1 has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals during the past three years. This year, it was detected in dairy cows in the United States.

Twenty-six countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins.

Migratory birds have been found to be spreading the disease and the first cases of H5 virus were detected in Antarctica in February, resulting in mass deaths of penguins.

A different strain of bird flu (H7) has been affecting poultry farms in Australia. More than 1 million hens have been killed to stem the disease.

A complete overhaul of poultry and egg production is the only way to stem bird flu. Moving away from factory farming and food production, including ultra-processed foods would also have positive impacts on diet and public health. However, factory farming of livestock and fish is intensifying, providing mega-profits for agribusiness.

Protecting biodiversity and avoiding a sixth mass extinction requires radical moves to protect habitat from destruction for mining, grazing and development.

However, the best that global governments can come up with is the “Thirty by thirty” target for protecting 30% of the Earth’s land and sea by 2030.

Fighting for an ecosocialist future
Capitalism has created regular economic crises, distorted the world’s development and created a handful of rich countries and a majority of poorer, super-exploited countries.

The rich countries are the base for most of the giant global corporations that monopolise key sectors of the economy. Their governments maintain powerful militaries to protect their economic hegemony.

The rich countries have launched a new arms race that risks escalating into nuclear war and drains public funds that should be used to address the climate emergency and pressing social needs.

Faced with these threats, building political movements and alliances that are powerful enough to challenge the power of fossil fuel capital is urgent.

The shift away from a market-based economic system to a needs based economy with people and nature at its centre can only be done if critical industries such as energy, transport, agribusiness and the financial institutions that invest in them are brought under popular control.

This would be the first step to replace capitalism with ecosocialism–the only system with the potential to address gross injustices and repair the rift with nature.

The corporate rich that now rule the world stole much of their starting capital, directly or indirectly, through colonial plunder. An ecosocialist future would require a return to Indigenous values of egalitarianism, cooperation and co-existence with nature.

These principles, together with technological advances, human creativity and real democracy would allow communities to have control over their destinies.

The movement in solidarity with Palestine reminds us that, historically, political consciousness can develop rapidly in the process of sustained collective struggle. Such movements can act as schools of direct democracy. They can also give birth to new institutions of popular democracy.

Therefore, it is critically important to build mass movements around immediate demands and transitional measures that point a way beyond capitalism.

In a global climate emergency, such measures could include a radical green new deal, or adoption of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to scale down the fossil fuel industry in the Global North, while enabling the Global South to access the energy needed for development.

The Global North must be forced to compensate the Global South for climate mitigation–estimated at $192 trillion between now and 2050.

Building a movement powerful enough to do those things will have to go beyond electoral campaigns: to realise such transitional measures requires that we change the system.

[This article is based on a talk given to the Ecosocialism 2024: Climate Action not War conference.]



https://mronline.org/2024/07/18/capitalism-kills/

(If the goals of ecosocialism are in any way to be met the 'green' must join the revolutionary red and capitalism must not be merely opposed but utterly overthrown. Nothing else will do. )

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Exporting Extinction: The Global Political Economy of Biodiversity Loss
Posted on July 18, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. Documentary producer Lynn Fries today focuses on an aspect of accelerating progress towards the Jackpot which perversely gets comparatively little coverage despite its clear importance: that of more and more extinctions and potential/probable ecosystem collapse. Yet commentators seem if anything more resigned to biodiversity loss than they are to addiction to the automobile. Many do know that habitat destruction and balkanization of once-extended wild spaces are the main cause of species die-offs, yet no one seems willing to make a full-spectrum demand to reduce resource exploitation in order to save the biosphere. As far as I can tell, the demands focus either on iconic places like the Amazon or iconic species like wolves (who need big territories).

This interview discusses a new study, Exporting Extinction, by the Center for Climate Justice. It digs into the economic and political drivers, particularly income and wealth disparity between nations.

By Lynn Fries. Originally published at GPENewsdocs

Why governments further policy agendas that entrench and expand extractive industries that drive biodiversity loss is revealed in Exporting Extinction, a report exposing structural drivers incentivizing this extractive agenda and constraining what states can do to address economic development and ecological crises.



Lynn Fries: Hello and welcome. I’m Lynn Fries, producer of Global Political Economy, or GPEnewsdocs. Today’s segment is about the report, Exporting Extinction, How the International Financial System Constrains Biodiverse Futures. The report was published by the Climate and Community Project, the Center for Climate Justice at the University of British Columbia, and the Third World Network.

More specifically, today’s segment features clips* from the webinar launch of that report. As per the webinar title, the focus of discussion was on < quote>: Placing the Biodiversity Crisis in the Global Economy, From Extraction and Extinction to Vibrant Futures.

By way of a glimpse into what was an extended discussion, three clips are featured. The first clip provides introductory comments and context on the Exporting Extinction report and its significance in revealing the global political economy of the biodiversity crisis. The second clip digs into the report itself with a presentation by its lead researcher. The third clip provides further perspective on why governments in the global south have routinely failed to achieve biodiversity goals and what can be done about it. We go now to our featured clips.

Thea Riofrancos: So I think the first thing to say, as we as advocates and scholars and activists focus our attention on the climate crisis is how deeply related the climate and biodiversity crises are. And one of the reasons that they’re related is that their root causes are the same.

They both issue from unsustainable levels of resource extraction, whether that’s industrial scale agriculture, mining <or> oil, gas and coal extraction as well as unsustainable land use patterns and deforestation. So those are the underlying causes of both the climate crisis and the biodiversity crisis which themselves interact and exacerbate one another.

But this raises the key question: What causes unsustainable levels of extraction and unsustainable land use patterns? I think a short and easy and broadly correct answer is global capitalism and an unequal world system.

Those are correct answers to that question but I think, you know, as I tell my students, like, let’s be more specific. Like what is it about global capitalism and about an unequal world order that drives unsustainable patterns of land use and really frightening levels of biodiversity loss?

And so what this report does and what I think is so important about it is that it digs into what we might call the global political economy of biodiversity loss. Because it turns out that it’s financial mechanisms, it’s trade mechanisms, it’s the monetary system that really do put especially global South governments in positions of adopting unsustainable patterns of extraction and unsustainable development models.

Jess Dempsey: So as Thea said, this research report really takes on a serious question that I think many of you in this room are interested in and actively engaged in. Why do decades of decisions and targets to address ecological degradation and biodiversity loss fail?

The world’s foremost experts on biodiversity and ecosystem change gathered around the IPCC of biodiversity, the lesser known IPBES, concluded in 2019 that this is because biodiversity efforts haven’t really tackled underlying or root drivers of biodiversity loss.

As researchers and analysts, we need to sharpen our understanding of those root drivers. And as Thea already gestured to, we need to do this with some specificity. So, how to study these kind of root drivers? There are many, many ways.

Our approach for this study began from the science that shows, as also Thea said, biodiversity loss is caused by extraction including from mining, oil and gas, forestry, and industrial agriculture. These are the direct drivers.

In an attempt to really get at these root causes with more specificity, we then asked what prevents countries from stopping or altering the extraction that imperils biodiversity? Also a big question.

And because so many of the costs and benefits from these extractive activities are unevenly distributed in a formation, Latin American movements and scholars term extractivism, we also wanted to explore what holds this formation in place, again with some specificity. So we made this manageable by drilling into understanding one sector known to directly drive biodiversity loss in each of our case study countries.

I’m going to look at one key figure that really summarizes our research findings. It is, of course, an iceberg inspired by the late, great Maria Mies. Above the waterline are these drivers of biodiversity loss, the extraction. In the sort of meso section there, we have these things states are doing to support those direct drivers, which are substantial and entirely contra biodiversity targets.

In all five of our case studies, we see that governments continue to approve, subsidize, and expand the extractive developments that erode biodiversity. Now, clearly domestic political agendas play a role, including elite and regulatory capture; clearly explain part of what perpetuates these ongoing decisions.

But our research report shows that governments are also structurally incentivized to maintain and expand these sectors by the pressures of the international financial system to maintain invest ability, earn foreign exchange and to comply with international financial institutions that manage economic crises.

They do all of this in part because to do otherwise would risk financial stability within a highly unequal international political economic system in which many states already struggle to pay for basic imports and services.

Our study results are specific to the countries we studied but it is well known that these dynamics affect many countries across the globe. Across the Global South for decades scholars have described global South states as subordinate in the international financial system.

That is, they’re structurally disadvantaged facing ongoing economic instability and subject to constant threat of capital flight, loan defaults and shocks based on changes to commodity prices and monetary policy decisions made far away elsewhere.

So our research really shows how this subordination generates strong incentives to expand and deepen industries most in conflict with country’s environmental objectives. These structures and the unequal pressures they exert therefore represent a significant underlying driver of biodiversity loss.

In conclusion, only international efforts to address these conflicting priorities undertaken in the spirit of solidarity and collective responsibility will be able to transform these structures and make viable the path towards ecological stability.

How we do this is another question, but that’s part of why we’re here today to begin to discuss.

Fadhel Kaboub: Congratulations on publishing this important report. I’m going to go ahead and directly build on what’s been said already. I’ll put it in one key sentence and then I’ll unpack it.

A lot of the discussion today in the climate space is about decarbonizing, decarbonize this and decarbonize that. And what I want to say is the following: We can’t decarbonize a system that hasn’t been structurally and economically decolonized yet.

And what I mean by that, we’re talking about a global economic architecture from a Global South perspective that was not designed by us, not designed for us. So it can’t be the same economic architecture that will deliver justice or equity or sustainability for us.

So this global economic architecture, you can think of it as four basic pillars. The first one of them is the international financial architecture. That’s the World Bank and the IMF both designed during colonial times, by the way.

Number two, you can think of the rules – two and three – the rules of international trade and international investment. And that is primarily the WTO. And that’s really the biggest blind spot in a lot of these conversations is about the rules of international trade and investment when it comes to extractivism and as a result, the loss of biodiversity.

And then finally, it’s the international taxation architecture. And that process has been in the hands of the OECD countries for the longest time. Until last November, when we managed to get a vote in the U. N. to finally move that into a U. N. tax convention and that’s a process that’s ongoing.

So that’s a process of decolonizing the international taxation system. We still need to struggle to decolonize the international trade and investment architecture and the international financial architecture.

So the design of this system imposed a particular role on the Global South. And that can be summarized in three major points.

Number one, we’re supposed to be the place for cheap raw materials. And that’s where the extractivism is; cheap raw materials for the industrialized world.

Number two, we’re supposed to be the consumers of industrial output from the Global North and technology from the Global North.

And number three, and most importantly, we’re supposed to be the place where obsolete technologies, assembly line manufacturing that is no longer needed in the Global North is outsourced to us under the label of development and job creation and partnership and all of that.

And that’s really, what locks us at the bottom of the global value chain. And now I’ll give you one key statistic about where we are in terms of this extractive international economic system.

If you divide the world into Global North and Global South and net out all global financial transactions, trade, investments, exports, imports, interest payments, debt relief, climate finance included, illicit financial flows, everything, the net amount is two trillion dollars moving from the global south to the global north. That’s an annual number.

And that number has been accelerating over the last few years. That is, if we don’t change anything about the global economic architecture, if we don’t decolonize it, that number will be four or five, who knows, 10 trillion dollars a year in the future. And that is clearly unsustainable, has been unsustainable.

So the question now is: How does this work on a country by country basis? And I’ll give you a few examples from the African continent just to show you the extractive nature of the economic system and how it affects biodiversity in particular through the extractive industry and agriculture in particular.

So you have three major structural deficiencies that kind of are under the surface because everybody’s focused on the external debt as the visible kind of indicator of this extractivism.

Yes, external debt is extremely important, and many countries in the Global South are facing a significant debt crisis as we speak.

But it’s actually a symptom of deeper structural issues that I can summarize in three points.

Number one, it’s food deficits. Believe it or not, the African continent today -which used to be the breadbasket for the Global North less than 100 years ago – today Africa imports 85 percent of its food. Not by accident, by design.

It’s the design of the rules of international trade that immediately, as soon as African countries started to gain independence, we started seeing heavy agricultural subsidies in the Global North.

You have the European Union Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

You have heavy agricultural subsidies in the US, Canada, Australia, Japan, and the former Soviet Union to prioritize the food sovereignty in the Global North.

That is producing core crops – wheat, corn, rice, barley, and so on – and to outsource the production of the cash crops to the Global South. That is large scale industrial production for cash crops. That’s the concept of food security that was imposed on the Global South at the time.

And that is a key component of the loss of biodiversity. Not simply because it’s industrial agriculture but because the farmers in the Global South had to move away from producing their native crops, such as wheat and corn and rice and so on. Because it’s subsidized in the North and it’s cheaper to import. And they couldn’t compete with that. So they had to produce cash crops for exports.

And as soon as you start producing for exports, you have to use non-native seeds to serve the taste of your customers in the Global North. And you have to use more fertilizers because these seeds are not acclimated to your soil, to your environment. And you have to use pesticides so whatever you’re producing can survive the journey all the way to a supermarket in the Global North.

You do that for a few decades and you just burn the fertility of your soil. Your yields start to go down and now you have to double down on using more potent seeds, more potent fertilizers and pesticides.

And that is the ecological and economic devastation that we have in the Global South that needs to be reversed via strategic investments and food sovereignty and agroecology and restructuring of the global international trade rules that govern the food system, for example.

The second structural deficiency is energy deficits. And believe it or not, on the African continent, our largest exporter of oil, Nigeria, today imports 100 percent of its gasoline from international markets. Angola imports 80 percent of its fuel from international markets. And again, that is by design, not by accident.

And the devastation of the oil industry in a country like Nigeria alone can simply, there are no words to describe what’s happening to the ecosystem, to people who can’t survive past the age of 45 in Nigeria and beyond that.

Then finally, the third structural deficiency is the fact that we’ve been forced to specialize in a kind of manufacturing that forces you to import the machine, import the intermediate components to assemble with low cost labor, import the fuel to power the factories and even import the packaging.

So you end up with the manufacturing base that exports low value added content and imports high value added content. So you can double, triple, quadruple your exports. You’re always locked at the bottom of the value chain.

Now, here’s how it comes together. Those three structural deficits – food, energy, and manufacturing – produce an annual structural deficit which lowers or weakens your currency relative to the dollar or to the euro which makes everything you import the next morning more expensive.

So if you’re importing food or fuel or medicine, that immediately forces governments in the Global South into a defensive position using band aids and completely rewiring their own economic policy against biodiversity.

And here’s how it happens. If you have to face that weaker currency, you have to do immediately two things.

Number one, we subsidize food and fuel to protect the most vulnerable. And that is an important band aid solution in the short run, but it’s not sustainable in the long run.

Number two, we ask our central bankers to please stabilize the exchange rate. They do that by borrowing more dollars and feeding the external debt.

And now because you have external debt because you have debt denominated in dollars to pay, you know, every quarter essentially the one thing you have to do immediately is completely rewire your economy to prioritize any economic activity that will earn you dollars so you can pay the debt on time.

I’ll give you one example, Ethiopia. Ethiopia today, the third largest source of export revenues after Ethiopian Airlines and after coffee – which is another cash crop – is cut flowers for Valentine’s. One of the biggest exporters of flowers Ethiopia today, at the same time, has 20 million people who are dependent on food aid from abroad.

That is the biggest misallocation of resources. And that’s a country that’s blessed with fertile soil and water resources from the Nile River and so on. And Ethiopia is not unique.

All of our countries are rewired, have rewired their economies to prioritize exports. Anything that will generate revenues, and that is the biggest loss of biodiversity in a country like Ethiopia, in a country like Kenya, and, and beyond.

I’ll give you a second example. You rewire your economy to promote tourism. I mean, why not tourism? You have millions of people coming in, bringing dollars. You have jobs created in the hotels and entertainment industry.

Except when you don’t have food sovereignty, when you don’t have energy sovereignty and you bring 5 million tourists, you have to feed them. So you have to import more food that you don’t have domestically. You have to transport them, heat and cool the hotel. So you have to import more fuel that you don’t have.

So it completely drives you deeper into these structural traps that have colonial origins that have been enforced through post-colonial systems and can only be eliminated by strategic investments in three areas.

Number one, food sovereignty and agroecology. And that can be done in some cases at the national level and other cases needs to be regional South-South cooperation with Global North cooperation. Why not?

Number two, strategic investments in renewable energy sovereignty which is Africa’s biggest potential. For example, according to the International Energy Agency report from last year, Africa today, with existing technology, can produce 1, 000 times its energy needs, 1, 000 times. And not just for Africa, but for the rest of the world.

Number three, strategic investments in a different kind of industrialization that allows the Global South to escape the bottom of the value chain.

And again, none of that will happen country by country. It needs to happen via South-South cooperation, with South-North solidarity and cooperation because we’re all in this structural. problem. And we’re all destroying the ecosystem that is the lifeblood of, of the economy, of society, of everything we are fighting for.

So that makes Global South unity and solidarity not just a nice, fluffy thing we say to each other in nice meetings, but a geopolitical and economic imperative.

And that needs to be understood by not just civil society and think tanks but at the highest level of political decision making in the Global South which means forming regional blocks that have complementarity of resources and capabilities.

And have enough of a geopolitical weight to force joint ventures, to force transfer of technology, which has been the main impediment for industrialization from the Global North. And if the Global North is not willing, there are other options today, which is China.

China, for example, has the entire value chain of manufacturing renewable energy infrastructure. So, is there an opportunity for joint ventures, repositioning of the Global South via the G77 plus China group in order to change the balance of power, change the geopolitical game with the Global North because at the end of the day this is a question of power.

Lynn Fries: We’re going to have to leave it there. The Exporting Extinction report is available on the websites of all the respective publishers. So that’s the Climate and Community project, the Center for Climate Justice at UBC i.e. University of British Columbia and the Third World Network.

A recap of all the panelist presentations and a link to the full unedited webinar video is posted at the University of British Columbia website at climatejustice.ubc. ca under the title: Placing the Biodiversity Crisis in the Global Economy.

Many thanks to the researchers, authors, and publishers of this report and all webinar panelists and thank you for joining us.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... -loss.html

Will Burying Biomass Underground Curb Climate Change?
Posted on July 19, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. As readers may have inferred, I am prejudiced against various climate change free lunches, where carbon generators act as if there are forms of techno-whizzery penance that will wash away their climate change sins. Biomass is on this list. I am nevertheless running this post because it is useful to understand what it is purported to do. Biomass could make a difference at the margin, but I would not bet on more than that.

By Ramin Skibba (@raminskibba), an astrophysicist turned science writer and freelance journalist who is based in the Bay Area. He has written for WIRED, The Atlantic, Slate, Scientific American, and Nature, among other publications. Originally published at Undark

On April 11, a small company called Graphyte began pumping out beige bricks, somewhat the consistency of particle board, from its new plant in Pine Bluff, Arkansas. The bricks don’t look like much, but they come with a lofty goal: to help stop climate change.

Graphyte, a startup backed by billionaire Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy Ventures, will bury its bricks deep underground, trapping carbon there. The company bills it as the largest carbon dioxide removal project in the world.

Scientists have long warned of the dire threat posed by global warming. It’s gotten so bad though that the long-sought mitigation, cutting carbon dioxide emissions from every sector of the economy, might not be enough of a fix. To stave off the worst — including large swaths of the Earth exposed to severe heat waves, water scarcity, and crop failures — some experts say there is a deep need to remove previously emitted carbon, too. And that can be done anywhere on Earth — even in places not known for climate-friendly policies, like Arkansas.

Graphyte aims to store carbon that would otherwise be released from plant material as it burns or decomposes at a competitive sub-$100 per metric ton, and it wants to open new operations as soon as possible, single-handedly removing tens of thousands of tons of carbon annually, said Barclay Rogers, the company’s founder and CEO. Nevertheless, that’s nowhere near the amount of carbon that will have to be removed to register as a blip in global carbon emissions. “I’m worried about our scale of deployment,” he said. “I think we need to get serious fast.”

Hundreds of carbon removal startups have popped up over the past few years, but the fledgling industry has made little progress so far. That leads to the inevitable question: Could Graphyte and companies like it actually play a major role in combating climate change? And will a popular business model among these companies, inviting other companies to voluntarily buy “carbon credits” for those buried bricks, actually work?

Whether carbon emissions are cut to begin with, or pulled out of the atmosphere after they’ve already been let loose, climate scientists stress that there is no time to waste. The clock began ticking years ago, with the arrival of unprecedented fires and floods, superstorms, and intense droughts around the world. But carbon removal, as it’s currently envisioned, also poses additional sociological, economic, and ethical questions. Skeptics, for instance, say it could discourage more pressing efforts on cutting carbon emissions, leaving some experts wondering whether it will even work at all.

Still, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s forefront group of climate experts, is counting on carbon removal technology to dramatically scale up. If the industry is to make a difference, experimentation and research and development should be done quickly, within the next few years, said Gregory Nemet, professor of public affairs who studies low-carbon innovation at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Then after that is the time to really start going big and scaling up so that it becomes climate relevant,” he added. “Scale-up is a big challenge.”

(More at link, if capitalist propaganda is your thing...)

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... hange.html

Yves is quite correct to throw shade on this jive. That an astrophysicist is fronting this scam does not surprise, whadda they know about life on Earth? Capitalism is the problem and is incapable of being the solution because it's primary purpose is profit, and if something is unprofitable the capitalist won't do it. Bill gates' filthy hand in it seals it's iniquity.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Fri Jul 26, 2024 3:22 pm

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Feeling the heat: capitalism and global warming
By Martin Hart-Landsberg (Posted Jul 22, 2024)

Originally published: Reports from the Economic Front on July 18, 2024 (more by Reports from the Economic Front)

We are in real trouble. Global carbon dioxide emissions (the main cause of global warming) continue to rise, hitting a new high in 2023. Last year was also the hottest in recorded history and, year by year, more Americans are feeling the consequences. Yet, we have seen only modest attempts to bring emissions down.

Unfortunately, the U.S. government continues to believe, despite evidence to the contrary, that market forces will encourage a speedy transition away from fossil fuels. Instead, we need to organize in support of direct action to bring down energy use and emissions. We need nothing less than a system-wide transformation of our economy. Consideration of the World War II-era U.S. conversion experience helps to demonstrate both the feasibility of such a transformation and the importance of suppressing market forces to achieve it.

It’s getting hotter
Alarm bells are ringing in government circles. As Secretary of Health and Human Services, Xavier Becerra, put it, “Heat is no longer a silent killer, From coast-to-coast, communities are battling to keep people cool, safe and alive due to the growing impacts of the climate crisis.” According to his agency, there were an estimated 2,302 heat related deaths in 2023, triple the annual average between 2004 and 2018.

However, these totals, which rely on death certificate listings where heat is listed as the main cause of death, are widely believed to be undercounts. One researcher, asked by Miami-Dade County officials to provide a more accurate count of county heat-related deaths, determined that the likely number was at least 10 times the officially published one.

And 2024 is shaping up to be another scorcher. Miami recorded its hottest May on record, with temperatures reaching 112 degrees Fahrenheit. Phoenix experienced its hottest June ever, with temperatures hitting 113 degrees. The Maricopa County heat-related death toll for the month will likely exceed 175—an 84 percent increase over the previous June.

In fact, much of the country suffered from unusually hot weather. As the Guardian reported in June:

More than 270 million Americans—about 80 percent of the country’s population—are experiencing a kind of heatwave not seen in decades, smashing records with temperatures at or above 90F (32.2C) for long periods of time under a weather phenomenon known as a heat dome.

The Pacific Northwest is no exception, with July temperatures soaring over 100 degrees in a number of Oregon cities. As an Oregon Public Broadcasting article pointed out, “The abnormally high temperatures, part of a multiyear warming trend in Oregon, are prompting concerns about health in a state where many homes lack air conditioning.’’ While temperatures are not expected to reach levels as high as during the 2021 heatwave, when some 600 people died across Oregon, Washington, and western Canada, the threat to human life remains serious because of the expected length of this heat wave.

Excessive heat also takes its toll on workers, greatly increasing the likelihood of serious injury or illness. This is especially true for farmworkers and landscapers; delivery and construction workers; and factory, warehouse, and kitchen workers. Although the Biden administration recently proposed new safety standards to protect workers when temperatures are elevated, business opposition makes its chances of approval unlikely. The governors of Texas and Florida, citing business concerns, each recently signed legislation preventing local governments in their respective states from requiring heat protections for those working outdoors.

As challenging as conditions are becoming in the U.S., they are far worse in many places in the Global South. Temperatures reached 126 degrees in parts of India and Pakistan. And, as the New York Times explained, “For laborers, not working because of the extreme temperatures can mean not eating.” Air conditioning is a true luxury. In fact, the International Energy Agency reports that more than 750 million people do not even have access to electricity.

Air conditioning isn’t the answer
Many Americans continue to dismiss the dangers from rising temperatures, believing that air conditioning will protect them. However, climate change generates its own challenges to such fixes. A case in point: a major storm hit Houston in May 2024, knocking out power for almost a million households—there was no light and no air-conditioning. The damage to the power infrastructure was so great that even after five days more than 100,000 homes and businesses remained without power. If the storm had struck during a major heat wave the heat-related death toll could have been considerable.

Recognizing that the number of major blackouts in the United States more than doubled from 2015-16 to 2020-21, several university researchers undertook a study of the probable consequences of a major blackout during a heat wave in three cities: Phoenix, Atlanta, and Detroit. According to a New York Times summary of their results:

The researchers modeled the health consequences for residents in a two-day, citywide blackout during a heat wave, with electricity gradually restored over the next three days.

The results were shocking: In Phoenix, about 800,000 people–roughly half the population–would need emergency medical treatment for heatstroke and other illnesses. The flood of people seeking care would overwhelm the city’s hospitals. More than 13,000 people would die.

Under the same scenario in Atlanta, researchers found there would be 12,540 visits to emergency rooms. Six people would die. In Detroit, which has a higher percentage of older residents and a higher poverty rate than those other cities, 221 people would die.

The higher death toll in Phoenix was largely due to two factors: the city was likely to suffer a blackout at higher temperatures than the other two cities and the effects were likely to be greater because a far higher percentage of its population relies on air-conditioning.

Critically, the rise in temperature itself increases the threat of a serious power outage. Warmer weather means more use of air conditioners and greater demand for electricity. Add in the rapidly increasing demand for electricity from tech companies and their data centers and you have a recipe for a system overload, with transformers exploding and power plants failing. In fact a 2016 study “found the potential for cascading grid failures across Arizona to increase thirtyfold in response to a 1.8 degree rise in summer temperatures.”

Markets are not the answer
President Biden has touted his administration’s many efforts to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. At its core, his clean energy strategy can be summarized as follows: electrify as much of the economy as possible, as quickly as possible, using solar and wind power. The Biden administration has used financial incentives and regulatory initiatives to push the economy in the desired direction, but market dynamics—the expected decline in the cost of renewal energy relative to that of fossil fuels—was always expected to be the main driver. That cost crossover happened some five years ago, and the cost advantage of renewables over fossil fuels has only continued to grow. Yet our fossil fuel use has also continued to grow.

U.S. crude oil production set a new record in 2023; the U.S. has produced more oil than any other country in each of the last six years. And although there has been a major expansion in renewable energy production over the last years, the production of fossil fuels for use in electricity generation has also continued to grow, even if at a slower rate. The share of electricity generated by natural gas hit a record high of 42.1 percent in 2023. Coal’s share has been steadily falling, but even at its 2023 low of 16.2 percent, it remains higher than the combination of solar (3.9 percent) and wind (10.2 percent). Rather than replacing fossil fuel use, the increased generation of solar and wind power is largely going to satisfy the steady increase in overall electricity demand.

The main reason that lower solar and wind costs have yet to speed the expected transition away from fossil fuels is that investors don’t find renewable investments sufficiently attractive. As Brett Christophers, a professor of human geography, explains:

Take the S&P Global Clean Energy Index, which measures the stock performance of leading companies in clean energy, especially solar and wind power. Since the beginning of 2021, this index has lost more than half its value…

The main cause of this sluggish performance is low profitability. Bluntly stated, clean energy—developing and operating solar and windfarms, and selling the electricity they generate—simply isn’t a very attractive business. Returns are typically in the 5-8 percent range. Compare that with oil and gas production, where returns generally exceed 15 percent, and it is little wonder clean energy stocks have been falling while oil and gas shares outperform.

Christophers offers several possible explanations for the low returns on renewables. One is that renewable energy production is a very competitive industry, in part because of relatively low barriers to entry compared with fossil fuel production. This market structure tends to drive down returns and thus investor interest.

Another is that most developers of renewable energy need outside financial help to cover the upfront costs of building the facilities and transmission infrastructure. And financial institutions are reluctant to provide it because of uncertainty about anticipated costs and revenues. In contrast, fossil fuel companies generally rely on internal funding for their new investments.

Regardless of the reason, the lower costs of solar and wind energy have not encouraged fossil fuel companies to shift their investments from fossil fuels to renewables. It is profitability, not prices, that matter to their CEOs and stockholders, and the profitability of fossil fuels is just too good to pass up, no matter the climate threat. And, as the economist Michael Roberts summarizes, this is not a conclusion that embarrasses them:

The chief executive of oil producer Chevron told the Financial Times last October, “You can build scenarios, but we live in the real world, and have to allocate capital to meet real world demands.” Four out of five corporate executives considered “the ability to create acceptable returns on projects a main barrier to decarbonization of the energy system.”“We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas and, instead, invest in them adequately reflecting realistic demand assumptions,” says Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco. “You can argue green all day and NGOs all day, but those are the facts. I think that message is beginning to resonate,” Liam Mallon, head of ExxonMobil’s upstream business, said.

It’s not too late to act
It’s not too late to take meaningful steps to reduce emissions. While most climate scientists believe that it is no longer possible to keep the earth’s average surface temperature from rising above the 1.5C target set by the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, a Guardian survey of climate experts found that the great majority believe that “1.5C was not a cliff-edge leading to a significant change in climate damage. Instead, the climate crisis increases incrementally, meaning every ton of CO2 avoided reduces people’s suffering.”

How bad might it get? According to what the experts told the Guardian, if we allow the temperature to rise to 2.7C: “Two billion people would be pushed outside humanity’s ‘climate niche,’ i.e. the benign conditions in which the whole of civilization arose over the past 10,000 years.” At 3C: Cities including Shanghai, Rio de Janeiro, Miami and the Hague would end up below sea level. At 3C and above: “The impact of climate shocks in one place will cascade around the world, through food price spikes, food and water shortages, broken supply chains, and refugees by the millions.” As to current trends, according to the UN climate chief, speaking at the June 2024 meeting of the International Energy Agency, the planet is on track for a “ruinously high” 2.7C rise in the global temperature over that of the pre-industrial era.

Clearly, we need to act quickly to bring down emissions. And that means radically transforming the way we live and work. The starting point for such a transformation must be a reduction in the exploration, production, and use of fossil fuels in favor of clean energy sources like solar and wind. However, given the need to reduce overall emissions and resource exploitation, we cannot aim for a simple one-to-one replacement of energy sources. As beneficial as they may be, renewable energy sources also depend on critical raw materials that are limited in supply and their extraction from the earth creates its own ecological problems, especially for those in the Global South.

Limiting our overall energy use (and emissions) in a way that protects the interest of working people means that we must also take steps to reduce the production of ecologically destructive and socially less necessary goods and services, including single-family mansions, giant sport utility vehicles, private jets, luxury cruises, fast fashion, industrially produced meat and dairy, single use/disposable products, and the like. And because the Department of Defense is, in the words of Neta C. Crawford, Co-Director of the Costs of War project at Brown and Boston Universities, “the world’s largest institutional user of petroleum and correspondingly, the single largest producer of greenhouse gases in the world,” substantial energy savings can also be achieved from reducing our military budget and global infrastructure for the projection of power.

With a sizeable reduction in energy use from the actions highlighted above, a newly expanded clean energy sector should be able to support, at a lower level of overall energy use, a significant expansion in a number of socially beneficial goods and services. Examples include a well-funded national health care system, universal education system, and accessible and affordable program of public housing; an expanded system of affordable public transportation; and support for regenerative agricultural practices. The job creation from such programs will be substantial.

After decades of unchallenged neoliberal policies, many people will understandably find it hard to imagine how such a transformation could be achieved. And the challenges and tasks will be many. Some new industries will have to be rapidly developed and the productive capacities of some existing ones expanded. We will need to create agencies capable of deciding the speed of growth as well as ownership of the new facilities, how the new investments will be financed, and how best to ensure that the materials required will be produced in sufficient quantities and made available to the designated enterprises at the appropriate time.

We will also have to develop mechanisms for deciding where new establishments will be located and how to provide the social infrastructure to house and care for the required workforce. And we will need to develop programs that will ensure that newly hired workers receive appropriate training. In sum, a system-wide transformation involves a lot of moving parts that must be managed and coordinated.

Helpfully, we have the World War II conversion experience to demonstrate the feasibility of such a transformation. Despite the many differences in times and aims, there are some significant similarities in the challenges planners faced then and ones we are likely to face now. Most importantly, then as now, there was an urgent need for a system-wide economic conversion, a conversion resisted by many of the country’s most powerful corporations.

Corporations producing goods of direct importance to the war effort—for example, those producing aluminum and steel—refused to undertake needed investments. Overall private investment fell in value over the years 1941 to 1943. That last year, business investment was only 37 percent of its 1940 level. At the same time, corporations producing consumer goods—most importantly those producing automobiles—routinely ignored government entreaties to curtail or convert their production to economize on the nonmilitary use of scarce materials.

The U.S. government succeeded in transforming the economy from civilian to military production, converting it into the celebrated “arsenal of democracy,” only because it undertook the required spending, investing, and planning itself. Military spending as a share of GDP rose from 1.6 percent in 1940 to 36.0 percent in 1944. As a result, the combined output of the war-related manufacturing, mining, and construction industries doubled between 1939 and 1944. In that last year, federal purchases of goods for the military accounted for approximately one-half of all goods produced.

The economy was able to respond to the explosion in military spending because the government pursued an active and aggressive policy of targeted investment. A May 1940 act led to the creation of The Defense Production Corporation (DPC), which was given a blank check to finance the expansion of facilities deemed critical to the war mobilization. The DPC kept ownership of the new facilities it financed, but planned the construction with predetermined companies who were then allowed to manage them.

The DPC alone financed and owned some one-third of all the plants and equipment built during the war. At its termination in June 1945, the DPC:

owned approximately 96 per cent of the capacity of the synthetic-rubber industry, 90 per cent of magnesium metal, 71 per cent of aircraft and aircraft engines, and 58 per cent of the aluminum metal industry. It also had sizeable investments in iron and steel, aviation gasoline, ordnance, machinery and machine tools, transportation, radio, and other more miscellaneous facilities.

The successful conversion also required detailed planning. For example, newly created government agencies worked to free resources for war production by selectively ordering the curtailment or outright suppression of production by many civilian industries. As a result, between 1940 and 1944, the total production of nonmilitary goods and services fell by more than 10 percent.

Other agencies were created to ensure an efficient allocation of resources. During the first years of the fighting, the military’s demand for goods and services outpaced the economy’s ability to meet it. The result was a shortage of key materials and components, inflation, and disrupted production. Order was established only when planning agencies began directly allocating the existing stock of critical metals and components among key producers, eventually forcing the military to bring its plans in line with the economy’s capacity to produce. Still other agencies were empowered to determine the location of the new government owned plants and to finance the construction of the housing, day care programs, and urban infrastructure needed to house and support the growing workforce in the selected locations.

And despite government efforts to win corporations to the war effort, which included allowing high profit margins on government contracts and a willingness to appoint business representatives to key positions in planning agencies, corporate leaders remained critical of the government’s expanded role in the economy throughout the war. In fact, many questioned whether the cost of victory was too high. As the economist J.W. Mason describes,

J. Howard Pew of Sun Oil declared that if the United States abandoned private ownership and “supinely reli[es] on government control and operation, then Hitlerism wins even though Hitler himself be defeated.” Even the largest recipients of military contracts regarded the wartime state with hostility. GM [chair] Alfred Sloan—referring to the danger of government enterprises operating after war—wondered if it is “not as essential to win the peace, in an economic sense, as it is to win the war, in a military sense,” while GE’s Philip Reed vowed to “oppose any project or program that will weaken” free enterprise.

The wartime conversion of the U.S. economy was a tumultuous affair, with many mistakes made. Yet, for all that, government policy succeeded in orchestrating a rapid transformation of the economy, one that enabled the U.S. to play a pivotal role in the eventual Allied victory. Tragically, and perhaps not surprisingly, corporate leaders were able to use their structural power to ensure that the economic changes made during the war were quickly undone: government owned factories were sold off at bargain prices to the companies selected to run them and planning agencies were disbanded as quickly as possible after the end of the fighting.

There is much we can learn from this wartime conversion experience. Among other things, it demonstrates the feasibility of a rapid, system-wide conversion of the U.S. economy. It also shows the critical role of state planning, public financing and ownership, and state direction of economic activity in achieving such a conversion. And it highlights the resistance that a conversion process can be expected to generate from business leaders.

But having confidence that a transformation can be achieved is not the same as having the political strength to achieve it. And we face enormous challenges in building the movement we need. Among them: weakened unions, popular distrust of the effectiveness of public planning and ownership, and weak ties among labor, environmental, and other key community organizations. Overcoming these challenges will require sustained conversations and organizing to strengthen the capacities of and the connections among our organizations and to develop a shared and grounded vision of the changes we desperately need to make.

https://mronline.org/2024/07/22/feeling-the-heat/

"Conversations' are well and good but in no way supersede the need for a revolutionary communist party.

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The Whole Truth Five (from left to right) Lucia Whittaker De Abreu, Cressida Gethin, Louise Lancaster, Daniel Shaw and Roger Hallam.

Just Stop Oil vows to continue civil resistance after activists jailed for 21 years over Zoom call
Originally published: Morning Star Online on July 19, 2024 by Elizabeth Short (more by Morning Star Online) | (Posted Jul 23, 2024)

JUST STOP OIL (JSO) vowed to press on with civil resistance today after five of its activists were handed record jail sentences for nothing more than attending a Zoom call.

Judge Christopher Hehir set a disturbing precedent on Thursday after he jailed the activists for a total of 21 years at Southwark Crown Court.

They were convicted of “conspiracy to cause a public nuisance” for co-ordinating a peaceful action on the M25 that aimed to press the government to halt new oil and gas licences.

Judge Christopher Hehir jailed JSO co-founder Roger Hallam for five years.

Daniel Shaw ,38, Lucia Whittaker De Abreu, 34, Louise Lancaster, 58, and Cressida Gethin, 22, each received four-year sentences.

They are the harshest sentences handed out for peaceful protest in British history.

The activists had spoken on a Zoom call trying to recruit volunteers for the action, which led to gridlock on the motorway in November 2022.

A “reporter” from the Sun newspaper infiltrated the call, and passed recordings to police.

At the trial, Judge Hehir banned information about climate breakdown from being entered into evidence.

He ruled that climate issues were “irrelevant and inadmissible,” dismissing them as “political opinion and belief.”

When the defendants honoured their oaths and told the jury the whole truth about their actions, the judge had them repeatedly arrested and jailed throughout the trial.

Judge Hehir also ordered the arrests of 11 other activists who silently held signs outside the court saying:

Juries deserve to hear the whole truth.

A Just Stop Oil spokesperson called it a “show trial,” but remained undeterred:

We will be taking action this summer, nothing’s going to change with regards to that.

Everybody needs to be focusing on this critical issue that faces us all, because we’ll regret it in years to come if we don’t.

Policy Exchange, an oil industry-funded think tank, helped draft the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act under which the protesters were sentenced.

Campaign group Climate Resistance stressed the urgent need for a legal system that has the “interests of people, not polluters, at its heart.”

A spokesperson called on the new Labour government “to take every step possible to secure the immediate release of our comrades and repeal these horrific anti-protest laws.”

UN special rapporteur on environmental defenders Michel Forst, who had attended part of the trial, said the verdict marks a dark day for “anyone concerned with the exercise of their fundamental freedoms” in Britain.

“How a sentence of this magnitude can be either reasonable, proportional or serve a legitimate public purpose is beyond comprehension,” he said.

A spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion said:

Defendants are sworn to tell the whole truth.

Jurors should be allowed to hear the truth and take that into account during their deliberations.

This is more evidence that our system is broken and that the same powerful interests that have corrupted our politics have also corrupted our legal system.


RMT president Alex Gordon wrote on X that while the activists received jail time for planning peaceful action,

no-one has been tried (let alone punished) for the 2017 Grenfell fire which killed 72.

Judge Hehir has previously given suspended sentences to a police officer who had sex in a patrol car with a drunk woman he offered to take home, and a man who deliberately crashed a car into the gates of Downing Street who possessed indecent images of children.

https://mronline.org/2024/07/23/just-st ... zoom-call/

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A regional ecological assessment diver inspects a coral reef. (Photo: NOAA)

Florida’s Coral Reef is dead—now what?
Originally published: The Progressive Magazine on July 22, 2024 by David Helvarg (more by The Progressive Magazine) | (Posted Jul 24, 2024)

When I first snorkeled off of Key West as a teenager back in 1966, Florida’s coral reef was estimated to have 90 percent live cover—a multi-hued array of fan, brain, pillar and elkhorn corals, shoaling fish, grazing sea turtles, and hammerhead sharks that stretched from Palm Beach to the Dry Tortugas seventy miles west of Key West.

Coral reefs are unique, complex, and harbor one of the most biologically diverse ecosystems on Earth. They were formed by underwater ridges built up over thousands of years on the exoskeletons of multiple generations of coral polyps, a marine animal that spawns once a year. But when that top living layer of the reef dies, it all begins to erode away.

The two largest coral reefs today are Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, stretching over 1,600 miles (it is the largest living object that can be seen from space), and the 700-mile-long Mesoamerican reef off of Central America. Then there was Florida’s at 350 miles.

“The Florida coral reef track used to be the third largest reef but when you have 2 percent live coral cover—by textbook definition you are no longer a coral reef. It’s an algal turf reef now but not a coral reef. That’s gone,” says Dr. Sarah Frias-Torres, an oceanographer and marine ecologist with the Smithsonian (but speaking on her own behalf) who has studied the Florida reef and its wildlife for over two decades.

“It’s been a death by a thousand cuts,” she explains.

The latest heat wave—in 2023, when water temperatures hit 101 degrees—cooked the corals alive. They didn’t even go through a bleaching phase. There are still hot spots [patches] of good live coral cover but there are more corals alive now in ocean and land-based nurseries [being grown by coral restoration groups] than in the actual reef tract.

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A scuba diver surveys bleached corals in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

I’ve heard a similar story from other ocean scientists and government officials about the dead coral reef, although some prefer terms like “highly degraded.”

Of course, the physical structure of the 10,000-year-old reef remains intact, and since the structure attracts fish, much marine wildlife remains to attract tourists—a $2.3 billion annual industry in the Keys—at least for a few more decades.

And because of shifting baselines— the idea that people believe what they see today is the standard for what has always been—many visitors jump off snorkel boats flying Budweiser flags and think they’re viewing an authentic coral reef. But it’s more like entering a cemetery and thinking you’re in Sherwood Forest.

The loss of Florida’s reef can be traced to the decline in water quality and clarity from coastal development, runoff of sediment, fertilizers, pesticides and sewage, urchin and coral diseases (the worst—Stoney coral tissue loss disease—was first identified during the dredging of the Port of Miami), physical impacts from boats and divers, algal blooms, overfishing, ocean acidification, and ocean warming.

Attempts to limit the loss through restoration of the Everglades, whose waters feed onto the reef, and the declaration of a Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary in 1990 have done little to turn the tide. Coastal developers and Big Agriculture (in this case, the sugarcane and citrus industries) continue to pollute the Florida Statehouse and governor’s mansion, preventing any serious action to save the reef.

There are now two ways to move forward: We can either use resiliency and restoration models based on nature, or we can do nothing and remain in a state of denial.

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Scientists maintain corals growing in a coral reef nursery. The coral fragments will later be used to restore a degraded reef.

First up, denial: In May, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a bill that erases the words “climate change” from state laws and regulations following the hottest year in state history. While complaining about the left’s “radical climate agenda” he’s also used “preemption laws” to limit what local governments can do to address the issue such as restricting fertilizer runoff into local waters. He has also rejected $670 million in federal climate funding for energy efficiency and to reduce auto pollution emissions. And yet, he’s still willing to take federal disaster aid, especially given that South Florida has seen massive flooding even before the start of the unusually active 2024 hurricane season.

And then there’s triage: Floridian conservationists have become a leader in a worldwide effort at coral restoration. During last year’s marine heat wave, the Coral Restoration Foundation, the world’s largest group trying to regrow corals, had to do an emergency evacuation of their new plantings from the ocean into onshore tanks and water runways in order to protect them before placing them back in the ocean. With the approach of Hurricane Ian in 2022, another conservation group, the Reef Institute, temporarily relocated endangered pillar corals from the threatened Florida Aquarium in Tampa to its own facilities on the state’s east coast.

These groups are among thousands of organizations and millions of people around the world now involved in ecosystem restoration for coral reefs, mangroves, kelp forests, rainforests, wetlands, soils, rivers, and waterways that will have to become a major endeavor if we’re to have any hope of creating a more livable future.

“We know that coral restoration is required to keep coral reefs from going extinct. There’s no two ways about that now,” Alex Neufeld, the science program manager at the Coral Restoration Foundation, told me after the devastation wrought by 2023’s marine heat wave.

We’ve reached a point where even if we turned off the fossil fuels tomorrow, even if we stopped going to coral reefs, stopped polluting them, stopped touching them, they would not come back on their own. And that’s a really sad statement to make, but it’s the truth. You have to do active restoration now if you want to preserve anything.

Or, in the words of long-dead labor organizer and martyr Joe Hill, “Don’t mourn, organize!” Also, vote in November—because the corals and the fish can’t.

https://mronline.org/2024/07/24/florida ... -now-what/

Vote? I guess they're implying 'vote Democratic', totally ignoring the fact that Biden has increased oil production and done nothing to curtail fracking. A vote for the Dems continues us on the road to doom, hardly any slower than Trump would get us there.

Ending the capitalist mode of production is the only hope we got.

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Net-Zero Ambitions Hit Major Roadblocks in Europe, UK, and US
Posted on July 25, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. Net zero is still an insufficient objective to prevent Seriously Bad climate outcomes. Even so, governments look set to fail to meet even these targets. The posture towards AI tells all: if we were serious about protecting the planet, we’d drop the hammer on serious energy consuming, dubious social gains activities like AI.

By Irina Slav, a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry. Originally published at OilPrice

Net-Zero transition targets touted so proudly in Europe, the UK, and the U.S. are proving to be a lot more challenging to hit than expected.
Euronews: three of the biggest economies in the EU—Italy, France, and Germany—were falling short of the EU’s targets.
Rhodium Group: The U.S. will fail to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030.
The push to a net-zero emissions future has made governments pledge billions, potentially trillions, in funding for various initiatives, projects, and whole industries. Yet transition targets touted so proudly in Europe, the UK, and the U.S. are proving to be a lot more challenging to hit than expected.

Earlier this month, Euronews reported that three of the biggest economies in the EU—Italy, France, and Germany—were falling short of the EU’s targets and on track to be penalized for that. The warning comes from a climate NGO, Transport & Environment, and shows that Germany was going to miss a 40% emission reduction target for 2030 by a whole 10%. And this is Germany, perhaps the most ambitious of the ambitious EU members when it comes to energy transition efforts.

Meanwhile in the UK, an energy consultancy has also warned that the country is on a path to missing its climate targets. According to Cornwall Insight, the country will be deriving 44% of its electricity from wind and solar by 2030. Yet this is nowhere near what the UK needs to be generating from wind and solar, per Cornwall Insight, in order to meet its net-zero pledge for 2030. That amount, the consultancy says, as quoted by the Financial Times, is 67%.

The latest red transition flag comes from the United States, where reality is falling short of expectations as well. According to an analysis from Rhodium Group, a left-wing consultancy that focuses on energy and environmentalism, the country will fail to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030, which was the stated goal of the Biden administration.

Instead, the think tank estimated, emissions will decline by between 32% and 43% by 2030, but then accelerate and possibly reach 55% by 2035, the Financial Times reported. Apparently, this is not good enough because, according to Ben King, associate director of the consultancy’s energy and climate practice, per the FT, “it’s not putting us on a long-term trajectory to decarbonisation.”

There appears to be a divorce between climate targets and reality. In fact, this divorce has been a hallmark of transition efforts, which have seen governments make ever more ambitious pledges regardless of what it is possible to do within the physical constraints of the world we live in. Most climate plans appear to disregard these physical constraints, leading to sub-optimal progress on the goals. What the above analyses show is precisely this: the physical world, the free market, and the energy transition are not really compatible right now.

Take Germany, for instance. The country that has already spent billions on its transition and continues to spend a lot is discovering it cannot keep it up forever. Earlier this month, reports emerged that Berlin planned to change the rules of its subsidy regime and start offering wind and solar developers a bulk grant upfront rather than guaranteed minimum prices for their electricity. Days later, more reports came out saying the German government was going to axe even current guaranteed minimum prices—because of negative electricity prices. The reason for those negative prices? Excessive wind and solar output.

Then there is the UK case, where, per Rhodium Group and most other climate outlets, the buildout of wind and solar needs to accelerate substantially if the country is to meet its net-zero goals. Yet what this stance appears to miss are some facts, such as the availability of raw materials and construction costs—factors unrelated to regulatory regimes that the new Labour government has pledged to change in order to facilitate growth in wind and solar.

Then there is the case with the United States, where the Inflation Reduction Act turned into the biggest transition tool ever crafted by a U.S. government, offering several hundred billion dollars in subsidies to companies willing to do transition work in the country. The IRA indeed attracted a lot of companies—but it couldn’t make what they do more appealing to the end consumer. Local opposition to wind and solar installations is on the rise, EV demand is slowing down, and federal agencies just lost the privilege to devise rules and regulations based on their own interpretation of the law, known as the Chevron deference.

Perhaps the most problematic part of the transition situation right now is that there is little that governments can do to turn things around. They can certainly ease permitting regulations to enable more wind and solar construction—until opposition from local communities begins mounting, and it will because these installations will be encroaching on farmland. They can certainly keep subsidizing EV makers, but only up to a point. Some, such as Germany, have already reached that point, and subsidies are being axed just like guaranteed minimum electricity prices. Subsidizing loss-making enterprises can only last a while, but not forever.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... nd-us.html

('Red' added for emphasis. And we should put 'crypto' in that grave too.

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The profile of environmental collapse–forest fires tell the story

Originally published: Canadians for a Sustainable Society on July 10, 2024 by John Meyer (more by Canadians for a Sustainable Society) | (Posted Jul 26, 2024)

Human history is rarely dull but we are living through a period in which pivotal change is taking place. We have abused the planet to such an extent that the environmental ground under our feet is starting to shift. Here are some vital societal health indicators which the commercial economy *** was simply never designed to produce.

Human civilization was built during the current 12,000 year period of freakishly benign climate (the Goldilocks Zone*). But thanks to our stripping of resources, paving over of forests and farmland and emissions of carbon into the atmosphere, we are changing our environment at every level.

At the climate level, we are exiting the +/- 0.75 degree Celsius range of average global temperature and wandering back into the dynamics of past climate which saw variations in the +/- 5C range. Human civilization at any scale cannot exist in that environment and our species almost went extinct.

Welcome to the world of “unprecedented” events. Of course, all of the events we are witnessing now and labelling “extreme” have occurred before. But they occurred before we could write or perhaps even before we existed as humans. What matters is that all of the human infrastructure we have built, from agriculture to cities to transportation to energy systems, we built during a period that had few extreme events and when resources were in their virgin state i.e. their most abundant and productive.

Earth’s resources are no longer as abundant or productive as they were even 100 years ago (see EROI Mountain**). We have crashed many resources and here is what that looks like in the case of Canada’s cod fishery.

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The trend of “ever-increasing” harvests shows increasing variation and near the end, the oscillations become extreme with the resource finally collapsing.

Below is the graph of the area destroyed in Canadian forest fires over the past 5 decades. Notice any trends?

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Unprecedented wildfires in Canada

2023 was memorable because it is off the charts in our societal memory. No one can remember a year this bad and there is no documentation to suggest there was ever a worse year. Of course, over the past thousands of years, much greater areas of the country could have been burned but there was no one in a position to calculate or record those instances.

The area burned in 2023 was 14,600,643 hectares or 4% of Canada’s total forest area in one year. The total area of the Maritimes, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, PEI = 13,044,800 ha. With a resource replenishment rate of 50 to 100 years or more, (possibly 1000 years in Canada for full succession dynamics to play out) a loss of 4% is alarming.

If 4% events occur with increasing regularity, Canada will eventually become a country of grassy or rocky plains. The fire cycle is natural but where conditions allow, plains will displace forests as they have in the Prairies. New climate regimes mean new biophysical landscapes. These are unlikely to be as human civilization friendly as the ones we have now.

Forest Fire Emissions in Canada 2023
In the graph below, the emissions from the big and bad oil sands (100—130Mt) stand compared to forest fire emissions. Oil sands emissions are dwarfed and may cease to matter much if this marks what is called a tipping point as extreme events occur more frequently. These occur when a trend becomes sufficiently strong that there can be no recovery. We don’t want the events of 2023 to be repeated with increasing frequency.

The comments below by the Copernicus group detail forest fire events in Canada in 2023.

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Unprecedented wildfires in Canada
The wildfires that Canada experienced during 2023 have generated the highest carbon emissions in record for this country by a wide margin. According to GFASv1.2 data, the wildfires that started to take place in early May emitted almost 480 megatonnes of carbon, which is almost five-times the average for the past 20 years accounting for 23% of the total global wildfire carbon emissions for 2023. The global annual total estimated fire emissions (as of 10 December) is 2100 megatonnes of carbon. These wildfires in British Colombia, Alberta, Ontario, Nova Scotia, the Northwest territories, and Quebec were remarkable not only in terms of carbon emissions but also in terms of their intensity, persistence and impact on local communities.

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GFASv1.2 daily total cumulative carbon emissions since 1 January (right) for Canada. (Photo: CAMS)

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CAMS Senior Scientist, Mark Parrington comments: “The wildfires in Canada were the significant story in global fire emissions for 2023. The scale across much of the country, and persistence with fires continuing from May until October, was at a level which has never been seen in the data record (including longer records than those we have in the GFAS dataset).”

When it was recently put to Bill Gates that planting trees could offset our ghg emissions, he exclaimed “How stupid are we?” Perhaps he could have buffered that remark by explaining that planting trees is not a stupid idea but the idea that planting trees will offset or recapture the carbon we have released from the reservoirs below the planet’s surface is. Although planting trees is a good thing it cannot pull our climate chestnuts out of the fire. In particular, as climate goes dynamic, it may be a futile gesture.

We heed a comprehensive strategy that reduces the human ecological footprint. Economic growth must be seen as the Ponzi scheme it is. The signs are there. They are present in graphs, in the air, on the ground and in the social and environmental events unfolding all over the world we read about daily.

Sustainability isn’t a fad, it has to be a permanent state if humanity is to continue to progress. But we have to be reading the right, real-world indicators in order to achieve it.

John Erik Meyer

*human civilizations greatest resource is a stable climate

Humanity’s once-in-a-species opportunity to develop and advance was created by a period of unusually moderate and favourable climate. Consistent weather patterns allowed the crops, game and timber harvests humans consumed to become dependable. Civilization developed as a result.

Volatility means collapse.

https://mronline.org/2024/07/26/the-pro ... the-story/

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Tanker Ship Sinking Causes Oil Spill in the Philippines Coast

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Oil Ship, Sinking in the Philippines coast, July 25, 2024 Photo: @QqCruzz

July 25, 2024 Hour: 8:54 pm

The tanker was transhipping 1,494 metric tons of industrial fuel when it sank in the early hours of the morning approximately six kilometres off the coast of Bataan.

Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., sent on Thursday to various government agencies to make a collaborative estimate, the environmental impact of the Terra Nova tanker spill, whose sinking caused a petroleum spill.

The tanker was transhipping 1,494 metric tons of industrial fuel when it sank in the early hours of the morning approximately six kilometres off the coast of Bataan.

The Secretary of Transportation, Jaime Bautista, said that the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) rescued 16 of the 17 crew members who were on board. One of them was missing. Emergency actions were prevented by the height caused by strong winds.

At the Presidential Security Command during a briefing on the situation regarding the effects of Typhoon Carina and the southwest monsoon, the president said that Basically, what we have to assess is: where was the capsized ship? Is the fuel being released? What are the tides? What are the winds? Where is it heading?»


«We need some determinations of that», added the president.

The Coast Guard reported that an aerial survey revealed a 3.7-kilometer oil shadow, which was moved by strong waves.

Admiral Ronnie Gil, commander of PCG, explained that «Ships shall start applying oil dispersants to mitigate the impact immediately, especially during the period in which the diversion is being prepared».

Rear-admiral Armando Balilo, reported that the ship sank at 34 meters depth, which is considerably shallow».

He also stated that the body of the missing crew member was located in the afternoon.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/tanker-s ... nes-coast/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

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How a giant corporate cover-up poisoned the planet—and everyone on it
Originally published: Red Flag on July 21, 2024 by Lucas Brunning-Halsall (more by Red Flag) | (Posted Jul 27, 2024)

Way back in 1979, Lewis Lehr, the CEO of American corporation 3M, met with an expert on toxic chemicals. A mysterious set of chemicals produced by 3M had been found in the blood of people across the U.S.

The toxicologist told Lehr that, when tested on animals, exposure to the chemicals resulted in symptoms consistent with cancer. Instead of reporting this information to the authorities, 3M wiped it from the minutes of the meeting.

So began one of the most sinister and deadly corporate cover-ups in history, laid bare in the new Stan documentary Revealed: How to Poison a Planet.

Nearly 50 years after that fateful meeting, PFAS, known as forever chemicals because they do not break down naturally, are in nearly everything—and everyone. They occur in a range of household items as varied as non-stick cookware, cleaning products, make-up and rain jackets. Tap water across Australia contains unsafe levels of PFAS. The chemicals were detected in every study of umbilical cord blood in the last five years.

In 1998, the head toxicologist at 3M estimated that a safe level of PFAS in human blood is about one part per billion. The average American’s blood has not double, not triple, but 30 times that amount.

Media coverage of the health ramifications of PFAS is growing, for good reason. The list of afflictions linked to the chemicals is long and expanding.

A 2019 study commissioned by the Nordic Council of Ministers estimated that more than 15 million Europeans are affected by illnesses caused by PFAS exposure. It also predicted that high blood pressure caused by PFAS could be responsible for the deaths of up to 10,000 Europeans each year.

Researchers from the University of Michigan found in a 2023 study that women with high levels of exposure to certain PFAS chemicals had twice the chance of developing melanoma.

While today’s scientists are just scratching the surface, the CEOs of 3M and the other major producer DuPont knew about the dangers decades ago. But the chemicals were key to their most profitable products, so in keeping with the tradition of many a mighty corporate empire, they chose a systematic cover-up over telling the truth.

As early as 1970, researchers for DuPont found that some PFAS were “highly toxic when inhaled and moderately toxic when ingested”. Again, the company said nothing and continued to produce the chemicals.

In the late 1970s, 3M scientists found that a relatively low daily dose of PFAS—less than most people consume today—administered to monkeys could kill them within weeks. This would put the chemicals in the highest of five toxicity categories recognised by the United Nations. Again, the company said nothing while ramping up production.

In fact, 90 percent of PFAS have been produced in the time since 3M and DuPont knew how dangerous the chemicals are.

Actor Mark Ruffalo raises the sharpest political question of the documentary. Putting toxic chemicals into popular products was not an accident but a conscious “decision made by people”, he notes.

You can’t help but ask—what kind of people do that?

“Evil people”, he later concludes. He’s not wrong.

But he’s not referring to evil people like drug dealers who get thrown in jail for distributing toxic products. He’s talking about the evil people who get multimillion-dollar salaries and an obituary in the Wall Street Journal.

The leaders of 3M poisoned the planet because it made them money. They played by the rules of the capitalist game—profit before all else—and were rewarded massively for it.

3M has not been raided by police, nor have its leaders been thrown into jail. Instead, it is a Fortune 500 company with an estimated net worth of $58 billion. Forbes ranked it as one of “America’s most just companies” in 2021, based on “issues relating to giving back to their communities”.

PFAS are just one of the many ways in which capitalism’s relentless drive for profits is poisoning the planet and all those who live on it. The only “just” solution to this disaster is for every complicit corporate executive to be stripped of their wealth and power.

https://mronline.org/2024/07/27/how-a-g ... one-on-it/

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Capitalism’s New Age of Plagues, Part 8: Deadly Heat
July 27, 2024
‘Climate change has already caused mass death on a pandemic-like scale’

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Part 8 of a multi-part article on the causes and implications of global capitalism’s descent into an era when infectious diseases are ever more common. My views are subject to continuing debate and testing in practice. I look forward to your comments, criticisms, and corrections.

Part 1: An Existential Threat
Part 2: Relentless Viral Evolution
Part 3: Systematically Unprepared
Part 4: Deforestation and Spillover
Part 5: The Pandemic Machines
Part 6: China’s Livestock Revolution
Part 7: Wildife Farms and Wet Markets
Part 8: Deadly Heat
by Ian Angus

Previous articles in this series have focused on two global trends that are fueling the emergence of new viral diseases in our time. Deforestation and urban growth have reduced or eliminated the natural barriers that prevented most ‘spillover’ of viruses from wildlife to farmed animals and humans, and the concentration of livestock in factory farms has created ideal environments for such viruses to evolve into more contagious and deadly forms.

A full account of capitalism’s new plagues must also include the impact of the global climate crisis. The usually-cautious Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes, with very high confidence, that “climate hazards are increasingly contributing to a growing number of adverse health outcomes.”

“Climate variability and change (including temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) and population mobility are significantly and positively associated with observed increases in dengue globally; chikungunya virus in Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe (high confidence); Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in North America (high confidence); and Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis vector Ixodes ricinus in Europe (medium confidence). Higher temperatures (very high confidence), heavy rainfall events (high confidence) and flooding (medium confidence) are associated with an increase of diarrhoeal diseases in affected regions, including cholera (very high confidence), other gastrointestinal infections (high confidence) and food-borne diseases due to Salmonella and Campylobacter (medium confidence).”[1]

Indeed, as Colin Carlson of Georgetown University’s Center for Global Health Science and Security points out, “human-caused climate change has already caused mass death on a pandemic-like scale.”

“Excluding COVID-19 … climate change has exceeded the combined death toll of every World Health Organization (WHO)-recognized public health emergency of international concern. Every year, climate change kills 14 times as many people as the 2014 Ebola epidemic in west Africa.”[2]

Deadly results of climate change include floods, forest fires and droughts, but our focus in this series is on corporeal diseases. In that respect, global heating’s major threats to human health involve life-threatening heat waves, expanded vector ranges, and disruption of the global virome.

Heat Waves

Unless decisive action slashes greenhouse gas emissions, climate change will in time make large parts of the Earth uninhabitable, characterized for most or all of the year by temperatures that the human metabolism cannot survive. But the path to Hothouse Earth is not linear. Short of a generalized catastrophe, we are already seeing ever more heat waves — intervals of extreme temperatures that can cause heat exhaustion, heat cramps, and heatstroke, often leading to premature death. Between 1990 and 2019, heat waves that lasted 2 days or more caused over 153,000 additional deaths a year. Nearly half of the deaths occurred in Asia, and about one-third in Europe.[3] Just one European heatwave, in 2022, killed 62,000 people.

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Source: Lancet 2023 Countdown on Health and Climate Change. Click for larger image

Because heat waves are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity, they affect more people every year. The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, the most comprehensive assessment of the subject, tells us:

“Adults older than 65 years and infants younger than 1 year, for whom extreme heat can be particularly life-threatening, are now exposed to twice as many heatwave days as they would have experienced in 1986–2005…. Over 60% of the days that reached health-threatening high temperatures in 2020 were made more than twice as likely to occur due to anthropogenic climate change and heat related deaths of people older than 65 years increased by 85% compared with 1990–2000.”[4]

The Lancet report projects that even if the global temperature increase is kept to just under 2ºC, there will still be a 1120% increase in heatwave exposure for people over 65 by 2041-2060, and a 2510% increase by 2080-2100. “Under a scenario of no further mitigation, the projected increases are even higher, rising to 1670% by mid-century, and 6311% by 2080–2100.”[5]

Without major mitigation efforts, a global temperature increase of just under 2ºC is projected to cause a 370% increase in annual heat-related deaths by 2050.[6]

Vector Range

About 17% of all infectious diseases, and over 30% of newly emerging infectious diseases, are spread by vectors — insects, ticks and other organisms that carry parasites, bacteria or viruses from infected humans or animals to uninfected humans. The best-known and most deadly example is malaria: transmitted by mosquitoes, it kills over 400,000 people, mostly children under five, every year. Other mosquito-borne illnesses include dengue, West Nile virus, chikungunya, yellow fever, encephalitis, Zika and Rift Valley fever.

As global temperatures increase, the geographic areas in which disease-carrying mosquitoes and ticks can survive and reproduce are expanding, exposing ever-larger numbers of people to infection. West Nile virus, once limited to parts of central Africa, is now found in North America and Europe. Cases of dengue fever have doubled every decade since 1990 — The Lancet estimates that “almost half the world’s population is now at risk of this life-threatening disease.”[7]

By mid-century, a global temperature increase of just 2ºC will cause a 23% expansion of the areas of the world in which malaria mosquitoes can prosper,[8] and at least 500 million previously out-of-area people will be exposed to mosquitoes that carry dengue, chikunguyna, Zika and other pathogens.[9]

Virome Disruption

As we’ve seen, the majority of newly emerging diseases are zoonotic — they originated in wild animals and jumped, often passing through intermediate species, to humans.

About 263 viruses are known to infect humans.[10] Although they have caused massive harm, they are a small fraction of the viral threat. “At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans, but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals.”[11] For millennia, each group of viruses has circulated only among a few species of mammals, simply because there is little overlap between most species’ ranges.

Now, however, climate change is forcing animals to expand or leave their traditional territories, taking their viruses with them.

“Even in a best case scenario, the geographic ranges of many species are projected to shift a hundred kilometers or more in the next century. In the process, many animals will bring their parasites and pathogens into new environments. This poses a measurable threat to global health.”[12]

In an important study published In Nature in 2021, Colin Carlson, Greg Alpery and their associates mapped the probable geographical range shifts of 3,129 mammal species through 2070.

They found that even under moderate heating, hundreds of thousands of animals that have never interacted before will meet, leading to at least “15,000 cross-species transmission events of at least one new virus (but potentially many more) between a pair of naïve host species.“[13] The long-term shrinking of forests and wilderness areas means that the new areas of mammalian viral spillover and evolution are likely to be near human population centers and farms. That in turn will increase the probability that new zoonotic diseases will infect humans.

“The effects of climate change on mammalian viral sharing patterns are likely to cascade in the future emergence of zoonotic viruses. Among the thousands of expected viral sharing events, some of the highest-risk zoonoses or potential zoonoses are likely to find new hosts. This may eventually pose a threat to human health: the same general rules for cross-species transmission explain spillover patterns for emerging zoonoses, and the viral species that make successful jumps across wildlife species have the highest propensity for zoonotic emergence. …

“Climate change could easily become the dominant anthropogenic force in viral cross-species transmission, which will undoubtedly have a downstream effect on human health and pandemic risk.”[14]

Of particular concern, the study found that although sizeable migrations will continue through the coming century, “the majority of first encounters occur by the 2011-2040 period.”[15]

In short, climate change is already forcing a global redistribution of wildlife, and in the process bringing thousands of potentially pathogenic viruses into closer contact with humans. In coming years, the massively disrupted global virome will be more dangerous than ever.

As Alpery told The Guardian, “This work provides more incontrovertible evidence that the coming decades will not only be hotter, but sicker.”[16]

(To be continued)


Footnotes

[1] Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (Cambridge University Press, 2023), 1045.

[2] Colin J. Carlson, “After Millions of Preventable Deaths, Climate Change Must Be Treated like a Health Emergency,” Nature Medicine 30, no. 3 (March 2024): 622–623, .

[3] Qi Zhao et al., “Global, Regional, and National Burden of Mortality Associated with Non-Optimal Ambient Temperatures from 2000 to 2019: A Three-Stage Modelling Study,” The Lancet Planetary Health 5, no. 7 (July 2021): e415–25.

[4] “The 2023 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: The Imperative for a Health-Centred Response in a World Facing Irreversible Harms,” The Lancet 402, no. 10419 (December 2023): 1.

[5] Ibid., 13.

[6] Ibid., 2.

[7] Ibid., 17.

[8] Ibid., 17.

[9] Sadie J. Ryan et al., “Global Expansion and Redistribution of Aedes-Borne Virus Transmission Risk with Climate Change,” PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 13, no. 3 (March 28, 2019): e0007213.

[10] Dennis Carroll et al., “The Global Virome Project,” Science 359, no. 6378 (February 23, 2018): 872–74.

[11] Colin J. Carlson et al., “Climate Change Increases Cross-Species Viral Transmission Risk,” Nature 607, no. 7919 (July 21, 2022): 555–62.

[12] Ibid., 555.

[13] Ibid., 558.

[14] Ibid., 559, 561.

[15] Ibid., 560.

[16] Oliver Milman, “‘Potentially Devastating’: Climate Crisis May Fuel Future Pandemics,” The Guardian, April 28, 2022.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2024/0 ... adly-heat/

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U.S. is Facing a Major Energy Crunch Due to AI’s Insatiable Demand
Posted on July 29, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. We have been regularly harping on the fact that AI consumes substantial amounts of energy while offering at best marginal benefits over existing analytical methods. Yet the touts are in charge, with policy makers for the most part ignoring the environmental costs and the impact on grid operation.

The post below describes a feeble and late reaction from the Department of Energy, even as a fresh CNBC story (hat tip Kevin W) confirms the how ugly the coming crunch will be:

This strategy of reducing power use by improving compute efficiency, often referred to as “more work per watt,” is one answer to the AI ​​energy crisis. But it’s not nearly enough.

One ChatGPT query uses nearly 10 times as much energy as a typical Google search, according to a report by Goldman Sachs. Generating an AI image can use as much power as charging your smartphone.

This problem isn’t new. Estimates in 2019 found training one large language model produced as much CO2 as the entire lifetime of five gas-powered cars.

The hyperscalers building data centers to accommodate this massive power draw are also seeing emissions soar. Google’s latest environmental report showed greenhouse gas emissions rose nearly 50% from 2019 to 2023 in part because of data center energy consumption, although it also said its data centers are 1.8 times as energy efficient as a typical data center. Microsoft’s emissions rose nearly 30% from 2020 to 2024, also due in part to data centers.

And in Kansas City, where Meta is building an AI-focused data center, power needs are so high that plans to close a coal-fired power plant are being put on hold.

There are more than 8,000 data centers globally, with the highest concentration in the U.S. And, thanks to AI, there will be far more by the end of the decade. Boston Consulting Group estimates demand for data centers will rise 15%-20% every year through 2030, when they’re expected to comprise 16% of total U.S. power consumption. That’s up from just 2.5% before OpenAI’s ChatGPT was released in 2022, and it’s equivalent to the power used by about two-thirds of the total homes in the U.S.

By Haley Zaremba, a writer and journalist based in Mexico City. Originally published at OilPrice

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence poses significant energy security risks due to its high electricity consumption.
The U.S. Department of Energy has proposed a new initiative called FASST to harness AI for the public’s benefit while addressing energy challenges and ensuring responsible AI governance.
FASST aims to advance national security, attract skilled workforce, drive scientific discovery, optimize energy production, and develop expertise for AI governance.
To date, the runaway growth of the Artificial Intelligence agency has proven itself to be all but ungovernable. As the technology has taken over the tech sector like wildfire, regulators have been largely impotent to stay ahead of its spread and evolution. Questions about the reach and responsibility of Artificial Intelligence are being bandied around, but there are few answers to go around. And then there is the issue of the sector’s gargantuan and growing energy footprint and associated carbon emissions, which are now so significant that the developed world is facing a major energy crunch like they haven’t seen since before the shale revolution.

“AI-powered services involve considerably more computer power – and so electricity – than standard online activity, prompting a series of warnings about the technology’s environmental impact,” the BBC recently reported. A recent study from scientists at Cornell University finds that generative AI systems like ChatGPT use up to 33 times more energy than computers running task-specific software, and each AI-powered internet query consumes about ten times more energy than a standard search.

The global AI sector is expected to be responsible for 3.5 percent of global electricity consumption by 2030. In the United States, data centers alone could consume 9 percent of electricity generation by 2030, double their current levels. Already, this development is making major waves for Big Tech – earlier this month Google revealed that its carbon emissions have skyrocketed by 48 percent over the last five years.

Not only does the United States need far more renewable growth to keep up with the insatiable demand of the tech sector, it needs more energy production, period, in order to avoid crippling shortages. Broad and rapid action is needed on several fronts in order to slow the runaway train of AI’s energy consumption, but the United States also needs to keep up with other nations’ AI spending and development for its own national security concerns. The genie is out of the bottle, and it’s not going back in.

“Certain strategic areas of the US government’s artificial intelligence capabilities currently lag industry while foreign adversaries are investing in AI at scale,” a recent Department of Energy (DoE) bulletin read. “If U.S. government leadership is not rapidly established in this sector, the nation risks falling behind in the development of safe and trustworthy AI for national security, energy, and scientific discovery, and thereby compromising our ability to address pressing national and global challenges.”

So the question now is not how to walk back the global AI takeover, but how to secure new energy sources in a hurry, how to place strategic limits on the intensity of the sector’s growth and consumption rates, and how to ensure that AI is employed responsibly and for the benefit of the energy sector, the nation, the public, and the world as a whole.

To this end, the United States Department of Energy (DoE) has proposed a new agency-wide initiative to ‘harness and advance artificial intelligence for the public’s benefit’ according to reporting from Axios. Just this month, the DoE released a roadmap for the program, which was first publicly mentioned back in May of this year. The Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence for Science, Security and Technology (FASST) includes coordinated cooperation from all 17 of the DoE’s national laboratories.

This program would focus on staying competitive in the AI sector on a global scale, but would also put significant resources into making more energy-efficient computer models to avoid compromising the country’s energy security and climate goals in the process. The five overarching objectives of the program are:

1. Advance National Security
2. Attract and build a talented workforce
3. Harness AI for Scientific Discovery
4. Address Energy Challenges
5. Develop technical expertise necessary for AI governance

Under the “address energy challenges” objective, the Department of Energy states that “FASST will unlock new clean energy sources, optimize energy production, and improve grid resilience, and build tomorrow’s advanced energy economy. America needs low-cost energy to support economic growth and FASST can help us meet this challenge.”

While the proposed FASST program will be a critical first step in the right direction for responsible growth and application of Artificial Intelligence in the United States, it still needs congressional authorization and funding to be put into action. A bipartisan bill has already been introduced in the Senate.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... or-energyt! -crunch-due-to-ais-insatiable-demand.html

So, the best they can come up with is to burn yet more energy for inane purpose... Brilliant! But whadda ya expect from capitalism?

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Climate Change: Can One Specific Example Counter the Denialists?
Posted on July 31, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. KLG suggests that important local effects of climate change could persuade skeptics. His introduction:

Anthropogenic Climate Change/Global Warming (AGW) is still denied, by the usual suspects with axes to grind and also by the general population who are often following a lead. One of the most effective approaches may be to identify local consequences of climate change and what this will mean close to home. In this post the visible damage done by accelerating sea level rise in the Sea Islands of Georgia is used as an example. In this case, the damage has been slow in coming but could be on the cusp of palpable acceleration. The local consequences of that are likely to be severe in a shorter timeline than generally assumed. That another chain of similar islands slightly to the west will succeed the current islands will be of little comfort as the people look back on what was wrought by their forebears. Which will probably be their fate, too.

By KLG, who has held research and academic positions in three US medical schools since 1995 and is currently Professor of Biochemistry and Associate Dean. He has performed and directed research on protein structure, function, and evolution; cell adhesion and motility; the mechanism of viral fusion proteins; and assembly of the vertebrate heart. He has served on national review panels of both public and private funding agencies, and his research and that of his students has been funded by the American Heart Association, American Cancer Society, and National Institutes of Health


The first book-length treatment to my knowledge of anthropogenic climate change/global warming (AGW) for the general reader was The End of Nature (1989) by Bill McKibben. In my view McKibben made his case very well and has continued, for the most part, to do this in his subsequent work. [1] Since 1989, climate change has become noticeable as regions of the earth become deserts, optimal plant growth zones shift into different latitudes and animals regularly appear where they were previously uncommon. Regarding the latter, I grew up at the ocean edge of the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States, which is well “below” the “Gnat Line.” I now live in a place that was previously safe from these creatures that make life miserable throughout the summer when the air is still. Now, they are here. Since McKibben and those who have come after, none of these phenomena can be reasonably dismissed by “It’s just the weather.”

So why are so many reluctant to believe that human activities can and do lead to climate change? Such denial could be considered a new thing. Jean-Baptiste Fressoz shows in Happy Apocalypse: A History of Technological Risk (2024) that 18th-century Europeans, especially the French, were well aware that letting technological genies out of their bottles could result in unfortunate consequences. Charles Babbage, inventor of the first functional computer along with Ada Lovelace who was the first computer programmer, wrote in 1835 about the Industrial Revolution:

The chemical changes which thus take place are constantly increasing the atmosphere by large quantities of carbonic acid (i.e., carbon dioxide) and other gases noxious to animal life. The means by which nature decomposes these elements, or reconverts them into solid form, are not sufficiently known. (On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, Quoted from Fossil Capital: The Rise of Steam Power and the Roots of Global Warming by Andreas Malm).

It is clear that nature does not decompose these elements or reconvert them into solid form on a time scale that “works” for the ecosphere in its current form. Svante Arrhenius, who was a principal founder of the discipline of physical chemistry, published a paper in 1896 (pdf) on what would come to be known as the greenhouse effect caused by the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. His temporal prediction was wrong only because he could not imagine the scale of coal, oil, and natural gas use in the 20th century.

Much of the reluctance to “believe the science” of climate change is attributable to the many Merchants of Doubt who have plied their trade throughout the post-World War II era and continue to be ingenious in their efforts. But there is also the simple fact that climate change is not like the weather. AGW cannot be sensed easily by those not paying close attention to the world around us, especially as we as a society and polity have succumbed to the conceit that the natural world is there for our taking, with necessarily benign consequences.

Sea level rise has been nearest to my concerns about AGW because of where I came from. Despite the gnats (and mosquitoes, deer flies, chiggers, sharks, and venomous snakes on land and in the water), the southeastern coast of the United States from Amelia Island in North Florida to Charleston is a special place. Sir Robert Montgomery of Scotland called the coast of Georgia “The Most Delightful Country of the Universe” (1717) in early “promotional literature” for the colony south of Carolina that became Georgia in 1733. He, never having visited, left out the heat, humidity, bugs and the snakes. But even before the advent of air conditioning, he was not too far off the mark. [2]

The Sea Islands of Georgia [3] are geologically young at less than 10,000 years old. They are constantly changing at their margins due to natural alterations in patterns of water flow from the rivers of Georgia that drain into the Atlantic Ocean and from shifts in the sands where they face the sea. Tidal changes along the Georgia coast are large, ranging from six to nine feet from mean low water to mean high water, twice a day. So natural variation along the beaches from year to year is normal. But overall, these islands have been stable for at least 250 years in their high ground, 8-20 feet above sea level. This can be seen by comparing the maps prepared by John William Gerard de Brahm in the 18thCentury to present maps produced by the US Geological Survey. The smallest of tidal creeks are in the same places de Brahm drew them, even as the sandspits and sandbars shift from year to year.

Nevertheless, according to recent research on sea level rise along the Southeast Atlantic Coast and the Gulf Coast of North America, this stability is not likely to continue. The primary source used here was published in Nature Communications in 2023 (Dagendorf et al.). A more accessible summary was subsequently published by Inside Climate News and later reprinted with permission in The Current [4] on 16 July 2024. I will use some of the data presented in this popular article (which is based on the Dangendorf et al.) as a naïve exercise to illustrate why, in my view, AGW is so often so difficult to appreciate as our most pressing existential [5] threat that is not completely an artifact of politics – local, national, and global.

Mean sea level (MSL) is difficult to measure, but according to Dangendorf et al., MSL has increased approximately 1.5 mm per year since 1900 (~7 inches). This may seem inconsequential, in that (theoretically) when walking along the beach the water would cover your ankles. No big deal. But this increase is unprecedented over at least the last 3000 years.

Image

This is not good and is consistent with other correlates of AGW, including the hockey stick graph. Specific measurements from North Florida (70 miles south of Jekyll Island, see below) are illustrated in Figure 1. Measured MSL rise was 2.8 mm/year in 1924, 3.4 mm/year in 1950, and 8.7 mm/year in 2003. This is consistent with the hypothesis that MSL rise in accelerating, with a trajectory more similar to #3 as a first approximation than either #1 or #2, with #1 being the first choice, as if we had one.

If this accelerating increase in MSL is real, then it can be modeled as a nonlinear process. Three points are not enough to fit these data to a curve, but interpolation and moderate extrapolation will allow this, strictly as an illustration, of what may be happening (Figure 2).

At least two key points emerge from Figure 2:

Image

There is naturally some discussion about whether Driftwood Beach is the result of normal changes in the shoreline due to the ever-present wind and large tidal flows. But similar areas are now more common than before on other Sea Islands. Whatever the cause, which is not necessarily unitary, this severe erosion on Jekyll Island has led to interventions that will be futile. Rising seas cannot be stopped. But several hundred yards south of Driftwood Beach, “Johnson Rocks” [6] have been piled at least 15-feet high, separating the remnant of a broad expanse of beach from the condominiums and houses behind them (Figure 4). This continues for more than two miles to the south and will eventually continue farther, provided the State of Georgia is willing to spend the money (Jekyll Island is essentially a state park, purchased for $675,000 in 1947 from the remnants of the Jekyll Island Club in what was termed Thompson’s Folly in honor
of then Governor Melvin E. Thompson). The sand behind the rocks has been imported.

Image

The extensive walkways over the Johnson Rocks are expensive but temporary, especially on the ocean side. During my visit in May 2024 the distance from the last step to the sand was a 4-foot drop at several sites, which is too far for those of a certain age to reach the beach. The story of King Canute demonstrating his fundamental powerlessness to his courtiers comes to mind.

Suggestions of how to get the message across are most welcome. AGW is not “just the weather,” but when “the ‘market’ is the measure of all things,” nothing else matters. A good friend from our days as baseball teammates responded to my topophilia-driven angst by telling me that planet Earth is too large for humans to damage it, so this is just the way things are. Actually, no. The ozone hole is under repair intentionally, to use a keyword. Fifty years ago, the Clean Water Act returned speckled trout (a species unable to tolerate industrial pollution) to the local tidal river less than a half mile from my childhood neighborhood, while the Clean Air Act put Spanish moss back on the branches of the live oaks as local air pollution diminished in the 1970s.

Perhaps these successes were small things. According to David Wallace-Wells, we are too far gone to do anything but manage, probably poorly, the coming catastrophe. I suspect he is correct. But Michael Mann claims that all is not necessarily lost. Rebecca Solnit and colleagues tell us that it is Not Too Late, as they would. In idle moments I would like to ask Hank Paulson what he thinks. Several years ago, he and his wife Wendy bought Little St. Simons Island so that it could be preserved in perpetuity, through an easement granted to the Nature Conservancy, as the little paradise it is (though expensive to visit, but not to beach a boat on the shore of Buttermilk Sound and walk around for a few minutes while ignoring the implicit “No Trespassing” signs). The island’s “perpetuity” might not outlive his grandchildren.

Finally, the little book Sea Islands of Georgia: Their Geological History (Endnote 3) that has taught me much about The Most Delightful Country of the Universe concludes with this:

The islands are being constantly modified. There is no loss but a gain of growth from this modification. The sea level is rising faster than their growth. If no change occurs in the present rise of sea level they will be submerged in one thousand years. There will be another and quite similar chain born as these pass out.

A change has occurred and there can be no denial that this change of a few hundred years at most is our doing. This is obvious to the most casual observer who is willing to look. As Abraham Joshua Heschel said in a different but apposite context, “Few are guilty, but all are responsible.” The willfulness of politicians and corruption of science, by scientists and their antagonists-with-agendas, are not helpful. Nevertheless, hope is the basis for action while optimism is a foundation for nothing but lassitude and ultimately despair. There is work still to be done, and it will have to be done by citizens rather than consumers. Perhaps it is not too late, after all.

Notes

[1] McKibben’s outright dismissal of the question of funding for 350.org when asked in Michael Moore’s Planet of the Humans was not his finest moment, despite what one thinks of this “imperfect” documentary.

[2] Sidney Lanier (1842-1881): The Marshes of Glynn. Text is here. A not unreasonable gloss is here. Sidney Lanier is not for everyone, especially Robert Penn Warren and his fellow Southern Agrarians and New Critics. But Jay B. Hubbell ranked Sidney Lanier with Emily Dickinson and Walt Whitman among late-19th century American poets…but for tuberculosis. The history of the Sea Islands and adjacent grounds after the Colony of Georgia succumbed to the political economy of its near neighbor to the north, despite significant resistance, is another matter altogether.


[3] The Sea Islands of Georgia: Their Geologic History. Count D. Gibson, University of Georgia Press, 1948. Only Jekyll, St. Simons/Sea Island, and Tybee are connected to the mainland by causeway.



Thus, the other islands have remained mostly in their natural state. Because I love maps, I cannot resist adding the map from the endpapers of the book here. Little St. Simons is the large island, mostly marsh, to the north of St. Simons/Sea Island. Wassaw, the small island between Ossabaw and Tybee, is not labeled.

[4] The Current is one of the excellent new independent news sources that have become essential as the traditional newspaper business has collapsed in on itself due to the rise of the internet.

[5] Existential(ism) for me means Camus, Sartre, and Kierkegaard. Who doesn’t feel like Sisyphus these days, or have a sense of sickness unto death or being nothing? Our collective political nervous breakdown has hijacked this previously useful philosophical concept, and “existential” has become just another PMC/neoliberal keyword such as freemarket, democracy, proactive, intentional, holistic, artisanal, mindfulness, and wellness. Still, it fits here.

[6] The seawalls of granite boulders common in the Sea Islands were first installed after Hurricane Dora (1964) washed away several beachfront houses on St. Simons Island, just to the north of Jekyll Island. The were promised by President Johnson during a tour of damaged areas after the storm. The seawalls are intended to protect the shore from the action of the Atlantic Ocean. It is not clear they do so in the long term. Previously the kinetic energy of waves and high seas dissipated harmlessly in the sand dunes above the high-water mark. While such seawalls work in the short term, it has been argued that Johnson Rocks also direct forces downward and contribute to beach erosion where they are installed. This is evident in the Village of St. Simons near the lighthouse, in sight of Driftwood Beach to the south across St. Simons Sound. The Johnson Rocks have done their job of protecting the village except during Hurricane Irma (2017) which was accompanied by an extremely damaging tidal surge from the northeast – something of a wakeup call for the complacent, but real estate prices have only continued to skyrocket. Where there was beach even at high tide not so long ago the water is now 6-8 feet deep. Previously no one built close to the shore or in the dunes between high ground and the ocean, but zoning commissions everywhere are amenable if the price is right. The only thing likely to alter that is a final collapse of the property and casualty insurance business.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... lists.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Tue Aug 06, 2024 1:52 pm

More Than 176,000 People Die Annually in Europe From Extreme Heat: WHO Warns

Image
Photo: @GulfTimes_QATAR

August 1, 2024 Hour: 9:05 pm

WHO authority in the region recognizes that current action plans to combat heat are insufficient.

The World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Thursday through a statement, The European Commission has published a report on the situation in Europe, which shows that more than 176,000 people die each year from the effects of extreme heat and it is expected that the figures will rise.

The WHO regional director for Europe, Dr. Hans Henri P. Kluge, detailed that between 2000 and 2019, at a global level, there have been about 489,000 heat-related deaths each year, Of which 36 percent corresponds to. European continent, which translates into, on average, 176 040.

In that sense, he said that Europe “records the fastest warming of the six WHO regions, with temperatures increasing at a rate that is about twice the world average”.

The WHO authority in the region recalled the call to action against extreme heat, which in recent days was made by the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres.
WHO/EURO is the fastest-warming region. @hans_kluge has echoed the UN SG @antonioguterres Call to Action on extreme heat addressing:

🔸care for the vulnerable
🔸protecting workers
🔸resilience of societies
🔸limit 🌎🌡️ rise to 1.5°C

Read here: https://t.co/ZIDD3NE5X5 pic.twitter.com/KDGtmT9Iti

— WHO/Europe (@WHO_Europe) August 1, 2024
“The Secretary-General’s appeal identifies four critical areas of action to care for the vulnerable, protect workers, increase the resilience of economies and societies, and limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5°C”, he said, while stressing the importance of this call for Europe, where heat stress is the leading cause of temperature-related death.

It also warns that “extreme temperatures exacerbate chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular, respiratory and cerebrovascular diseases, mental health problems and diabetes”.

She also points out that extreme heat is a problem particularly for elderly people living alone, and “can be an additional burden for pregnant women”.

While the regional director of the agency acknowledges that more than 20 European countries have action plans to combat heat, he points out that these are insufficient and announced that WHO/Europe, The European Centre for Environment and Health in Bonn, Germany, is preparing a second updated edition of its guide to action plans on heat and health.

In this regard, he considered that the adverse health effects of heat can be prevented by good public health practices such as avoiding going out during the hottest hours, keep homes fresh and the body hydrated and be aware of elderly people who spend much time alone.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/more-tha ... who-warns/

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The Growing Conservative Backlash Against Carbon Capture and Storage
Posted on August 5, 2024 by Conor Gallagher

Conor here: The following piece from DeSmog is an example of where left and right interests overlap, albeit for different reasons. Conservatives might oppose the carbon storage projects more because they require extensive government support in order to be viable while individuals somewhere on the left don’t want to support a boondoggle that does little to help the climate — and in reality is often used to help unlock even more oil:

CCS is an expensive tech that's not really being used for the small sliver of instances where it might help but IS being used to produce more oil; it also requires a network of pipelines to move an incredibly poisonous substance around. @carolynsehn on @WeAreDrilled today:(Video at link.)

People — left or right — don’t want their land seized for pipelines. And they don’t want invisible poison clouds floating through their community — as happened in 2020 in Satartia, Mississippi. Details from Huff Post:

It was just after 7 p.m. when residents of Satartia, Mississippi, started smelling rotten eggs. Then a greenish cloud rolled across Route 433 and settled into the valley surrounding the little town. Within minutes, people were inside the cloud, gasping for air, nauseated and dazed.

Some two dozen individuals were overcome within a few minutes, collapsing in their homes; at a fishing camp on the nearby Yazoo River; in their vehicles. Cars just shut off, since they need oxygen to burn fuel. Drivers scrambled out of their paralyzed vehicles, but were so disoriented that they just wandered around in the dark.

The first call to Yazoo County Emergency Management Agency came at 7:13 p.m. on February 22, 2020.

“CALLER ADVISED A FOUL SMELL AND GREEN FOG ACROSS THE HIGHWAY,” read the message that dispatchers sent to cell phones and radios of all county emergency personnel two minutes later.

First responders mobilized almost immediately, even though they still weren’t sure exactly what the emergency was. Maybe it was a leak from one of several nearby natural gas pipelines, or chlorine from the water tank.

The first thought, however, was not the carbon dioxide pipeline that runs through the hills above town, less than half a mile away. Denbury Inc, then known as Denbury Resources, operates a network of CO2 pipelines in the Gulf Coast area that inject the gas into oil fields to force out more petroleum. While ambient CO2 is odorless, colorless and heavier than air, the industrial CO2 in Denbury’s pipeline has been compressed into a liquid, which is pumped through pipelines under high pressure. A rupture in this kind of pipeline sends CO2 gushing out in a dense, powdery white cloud that sinks to the ground and is cold enough to make steel so brittle it can be smashed with a sledgehammer.


While the following piece from DeSmog deals mostly with Canada, it mentions conservative opposition among a few politicians in the US. On the ground out in the US hinterlands, however, there has been major pushback (covered by NC last year) on efforts to build carbon capture pipelines through mostly red, rural areas of states like Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

By Geoff Dembicki, an investigative climate journalist based in New York City. He is author of The Petroleum Papers and Are We Screwed? Originally published at DeSmog.

Earlier this year a far-right group called Canada Proud began running Facebook ads to its more than 534,000 followers attacking the climate change technology favored by conservative leaders as well as the country’s largest oil and gas producers.

“Carbon capture is billed as a green technology that stops carbon from entering the atmosphere,” the ad explains. “But is it really good for the environment? As it turns out, not really.” The technology, Canada Proud claimed, “can poison groundwater, it can put carcinogens in the soil and even has a record of causing earthquakes.”

Major oil sands companies and their political allies in Alberta and Ottawa have for years pushed the opposite message — that carbon capture and storage, also known as CCS, is necessary to ensure the survival of oil and gas while also addressing climate change.

So far the loudest attacks against carbon capture have come from environmental groups and progressive politicians which see it as an expensive false solution to climate change that furthers our dependency on oil and gas.

But as more of these projects move forward, they’re also activating opposition from the right, creating new political divisions between establishment conservatives and groups attempting to catalyze grassroots anger towards expensive industrial megaprojects in rural areas.

“It’s very interesting that groups like Canada Proud are seemingly mobilizing, or testing the waters to mobilize, against carbon capture and storage,” Bob Neubauer, an assistant professor in communications at the University of Manitoba who studies rightwing populism and climate change disinformation, told DeSmog.

“Their base doesn’t appear to be full of people who are excited about a technocratic post-carbon scenario,” he added.

Mobilize Media, the company behind Canada Proud, didn’t respond to questions from DeSmog.

Rightwing Influencers Attack CCS

Dissatisfaction with the technology has been edging into the mainstream of rightwing discourse. “We might as well take tax money at gunpoint and burn it,” Canadian conservative influencer Jordan Peterson in February wrote on X to his 5.3 million followers in response to a CCS project in Wyoming.

U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has been frequently interviewed on conservative media platforms, last year called carbon capture a “boondoggle.” Vivek Ramaswamy, who ran a failed primary campaign this year against Donald Trump for the Republican leadership, called pipelines in Iowa that can transport captured carbon to sites where it can be buried underground “the greatest violation of property rights.”

These tensions are growing in Alberta, the heart of Canada’s oil and gas industry, where a consortium of six top oil sands companies known as the Pathways Alliance applied this spring for regulatory approval to build a $16.5 billion carbon capture and storage project. It’s been blanketing the country in ads stating that “carbon capture is an important step towards carbon neutral resource extraction.”

Alberta’s premier Danielle Smith, who earlier this year shared a stage with Tucker Carlson and was recently interviewed on Peterson’s podcast, has announced taxpayer support of up to $5.3 billion for the plan. “Let me tell you, we are only going to strengthen the case for carbon capture, utilization and storage in the years ahead,” she said during an industry convention last year.

Grassroots Opposition Growing

Rural northern Alberta, where the project will be built, is definitely no hotbed of environmental activism. The region is home to an anti-renewable energy group called Wind Concerns whose leader earlier told DeSmog that climate science is “ridden with fraudulent data and outright lies.”

Yet locals there have created a new group called No to CO2 Landowners Group, which has teamed up with the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation and environmental organizations to oppose the Pathways Alliance carbon capture plan.

“Despite their claims, this is unproven technology with far-reaching implications into the future,” Amil Shapka, one of No to CO2’s representatives, has said. “With this being Canada’s largest CO2 pipeline and storage project, is our community ready for the potential health, safety and environmental risks to our water?”

The increasingly scrambled politics of carbon capture are now creating tensions at the national level in Canada. Because the federal Liberal government has proposed investment tax credits up to $10 billion to support the Pathways Alliance plan, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is now associated with a mega-project opposed by some rural Canadians.

Pierre Poilievre Still Supports CCS

That’s put carbon capture in the crosshairs of the anti-Liberal group Canada Proud, which has also launched an online petition against the technology. “Rural Canadians deserve a safe and clean local environment and Canadians deserve affordable gas, groceries and heating,” the petition reads. “Therefore we, the undersigned, are calling on Justin Trudeau to STOP forcing expensive and destructive carbon capture on Canada’s energy industry.”

In reality, it’s the other way around. Oil producers have touted carbon capture to the federal government as “a major component” of their plan to address climate change, much preferable to other solutions proposed by the federal Liberals such as a cap on oil sands emissions.

And their policy preference — billions of dollars in taxpayer money to support carbon capture projects that can extend the oil and gas industry for decades — has been echoed by federal Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.

“We need to greenlight new green projects like nuclear power, hydroelectricity, tidal wave power, carbon capture and storage,” Poilievre said during an interview in May about his climate change plans.

That positive messaging on carbon capture isn’t ending up on Canada Proud, even though Poilievre several years ago hired Mobilize Media, the company behind the Facebook page, to promote his federal leadership campaign. (The Conservative Party of Canada didn’t respond to questions from DeSmog about its current relationship with Mobilize). But Canada Proud continues to post pro-Poilievre content on its Facebook almost daily, including the Conservative leader’s frequent attacks on the country’s carbon tax.

Likely that’s because it’s easier to post anti-climate content for a far-right audience than anything supporting action, Neubauer said, especially when a majority of federal Conservative Party grassroots members have voted against a party proposal stating “climate change is real.”

“Canada Proud’s policy priorities [on this issue] seem to be completely out of step with the stated policy priorities of the Conservative Party and the leaders of the oil and gas industry,” he said. “But the rank and file of the conservative climate movement has been made so rabidly anti-climate action that there’s probably not a lot of upside to back CCS.”

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/08 ... orage.html

******

Insects: Apocalypse Soon?
Posted on August 5, 2024 by Lambert Strether
By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Since we seem to be in an apocalyptic mode just now, here are some headlines from last week:

Fireflies are fading from Maine’s night skies Portland Press-Herald


The number of monarch butterflies and other Wisconsin pollinators are falling. Here’s why Wisconsin Farmer

Where have all the wasps gone? BBC

But does this add up to an apocalypse? An extinction-level event? Some urge caution (from the early 2020’s: “nuanced“, “more complicated than thought“, “not so fast“). But since an insect apocalypse is a “risk of ruin” event, I think it makes sense to view it through a precautionary lens. In this post, I’ll do a quick survey of the literature, look at the weaknesses of the field, and then the causes and effects of insect “decline” (if “apocalypse” is too much; but regardless, on either a geological or even a history timescale, apocalypse is what we’re looking at, quarterly results aside).

Now let’s turn to the literature (PNAS has a fine history here). First, some country studies. From ITV, the UK, “Dramatic decline in insect populations over last 50 years, Sussex study finds”:

A survey of farmland in Sussex, carried out for more than 50 years, has seen a dramatic decline in insect populations.

The study tests the number of different insects present on cereal crops which overall has revealed that numbers have dropped by 37%.

It is done by using a vacuum backpack to sample the insects living amongst the cereal.

From the Sierra Club, the United States, “Study Shows Western Monarchs Have Dropped 97% in 35 Years“:

There’s been a lot of handwringing about monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in the eastern United States, where the population of the migratory insects has declined from an estimated 1 billion insects in 1996 to about 100 million last year. The charismatic orange and black butterflies are iconic in part because of their epic 2,000-plus mile journey to a single overwintering spot in Mexico’s Sierra Madre Mountains. But a new study shows that the other major population of monarchs, which live in the western United States and overwinter on the California Coast, is suffering even steeper declines than its eastern siblings.

The study, published in the journal Biological Conservation, shows that in the last 35 years, the population of western monarchs has plummeted from about 10 million living along the west coast to approximately 300,000. Even more concerning, if present trends continue, the study indicates the western population faces a 72 percent extinction probability over 20 years and an 86 percent risk over the next 50 years.

Monarchs are a single charismatic species — charismatic species, like polar bears or pandas, get disproportionate amounts of attention. And funding — but there are more insect species in trouble. From Statista, “Massive Insect Decline Threatens Collapse Of Nature” (2019), a handy chart:

Image

Granted, dragonflies and (honey) bees are still pretty charismatic, but here is a review of the literature, “Insect population faces ‘catastrophic’ collapse: Sydney research” (2019):

A research review into the decline of insect populations has revealed a catastrophic threat exists to 40 percent of species over the next 100 years, with butterflies, moths, dragonflies, bees, ants and dung beetles most at risk…. “As insects comprise about two thirds of all terrestrial species on Earth, the trends confirm that the sixth major extinction event is profoundly impacting life forms on our planet,” write Dr Sanchez-Bayo and co-author Dr Kris Wyckhuys from the University of Queensland and the Institute of Plant Protection, China Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing. Their study was published this week in Biological Conservation. It involved a comprehensive review of 73 historical reports of insect declines from across the globe, systematically assessing the underlying drivers of the population declines.

“Because insects constitute the world’s most abundant animal group and provide critical services within ecosystems, such an event cannot be ignored and should prompt decisive action to avert a catastrophic collapse of nature’s ecosystems,” the report said.

Another. From PNAS, “Insect decline in the Anthropocene: Death by a thousand cuts” (2021):

While there is much variation—across time, space, and taxonomic lineage—reported rates of annual decline in abundance frequently fall around 1 to 2% (e.g., refs. 12, 13, 17, 18, 30, and 31). Because these rates, based on abundance, are likely reflective of those for insect biomass [see Hallmann et al. (26)], there is ample cause for concern (i.e., that some terrestrial regions are experiencing faunal subtractions of 10% or more of their insects per decade).

That’s a lot. Some also find the speed of the decline alarming. From LeMonde, “Neither the magnitude nor the speed of the collapse of insects were anticipated by scientists” (2023)

Neither the magnitude, nor the speed, nor the systemic nature of the collapse of insects were anticipated by scientists. They are now measuring, stunned, the irreversible damage already committed.

In 2017, upon publication of the famous study by the Krefeld Entomological Society estimating at around 80% the drop in biomass of flying insects in some 60 German protected areas since the early 1990s, biologist Bernard Vaissière (INRAE), a specialist in wild bees, said to Le Monde: ‘If I had been told that 10 years ago, I wouldn’t have believed it at all.’ The other estimates that are accumulating and which largely corroborate this figure, still cause a sort of stupor among many specialists.

To be fair, insect decline studies all tend to have the same sort of weaknesses. For example, most insects have not been classified. Nor is there agreement on the numbers generally. From Friends of the Earth, “Insect Atlas“:

Compared to plants, mammals, birds and fish, insects are little researched. Only a small fraction has even been classified. Particularly little research has been done on the long-term occurrence and population dynamics of insects outside Europe and the US. Scientists agree that several well-studied species, such as monarch butterflies, some groups of moths and butterflies, and some species of bees and beetles are in decline – especially in Western Europe and North America. There is also consensus that insect biodiversity is decreasing in many parts of the world, while the numbers and biomass of the animals vary greatly depending on the region, climate change and land use, as well as the adaptability of each species. There is no scientifically confirmed figure for the global decline in insects. A first review by the University of Sydney in 2018 compiled information from research studies in various regions. It found that the populations of 41 percent of species are in decline, and one-third of all insect species are threatened by extinction. While cautioning that the available evidence is relatively thin, the researchers estimated that total insect biomass is declining by 2.5 percent a year.

Further, most studies are geographically limited (though not the reviews). From PNAS once more:

An important limitation of assessments based on long-term monitoring data are that they come from locations that have remained largely intact for the duration of the study and do not directly reflect population losses caused by the degradation or elimination of a specific monitoring site (although effects can be measured in a metapopulation context if the number of years sampled is sufficient in remaining sites). For example, butterfly censusing sites that have been lost to agriculture, urban development, or exotic plant invasions would not meet inclusion criteria for a study aimed at calculating long-term rates of decline. Surely, the greatest threat of the Anthropocene is exactly this: the incremental loss of populations due to human activities. Such subtractions commonly go uncounted in multidecadal studies

Finally, the field itself seems not to have the manpower to take on the job of measuring insect design (let alone teasing out causality). From the National Wildlife Federation, “Are Entomologists as Endangered as the Insects They Study?” (2024):

Scientists who identify, classify and study insects and the ecosystems they inhabit are essential to preventing the loss of the insect species that humans and all other living things depend on. They are also of critical importance for detecting and controlling diseases carried by ticks, mosquitoes and other invertebrates that can bring humans and other animals harm…. But Droege and other insect taxonomists like him are in short supply, especially when compared to the escalating need and the number of species still unknown to science…. Dwindling funds have fueled the taxonomist shortage. Over the past few decades, research funders like the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) have shifted their priorities from “old-fashioned” descriptive sciences like taxonomy to cutting-edge fields like molecular biology, with researchers and students adjusting their career trajectories accordingly. And as an older generation of classically trained natural historians approaches retirement, their slots at universities are remaining unfilled. ‘We’re rapidly losing the expertise we need in quite a diversity of areas,” says Lynn Kimsey, professor of entomology and director of the Bohart Museum of Entomology at the University of California, Davis. ‘The driving force in universities is funding, and almost all the funding out of agencies like NSF and NIH is directed at DNA.’ Her own department offers one example. “At one point we had three taxonomists: one working on ants, one working on spiders and one working on stinging wasps,” she says. “Within five years, two of the three will be gone, and they won’t be replaced. And I’m seeing that at universities across the country.”

So not only are the studies we have underpowered with respect to the scale of the problem, we might not even have the scientific capacity to do better.[2]

Perhaps, in the end, the best proof is bugsplat — or lack thereof. BBC, “Bug splat survey shows decline in insect numbers“:

Since the first reference survey in 2004, an analysis of records from nearly 26,500 journeys across the UK shows a continuing decrease in bug splats.

The number in 2023 saw a 78% drop nationwide.

(Wikipedia, more gracefully, titles its page on this topic “Windshield Phenomenon.”) A bugsplat sample seems to me to be just as sound a method as the “vacuum backpack” used to sample Sussex insects, in the first study I cited. So by that measure, insect decline is significant.

Most agree on the causes of insect decline. Science Daily, “The reasons why insect numbers are decreasing” (2023) summarizes the consensus view[2]:

Together with forest entomologist Professor Martin Gossner of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) and biologist Dr. Nadja Simons of TU Darmstadt, [Dr. Florian Menzel from the Institute of Organismic and Molecular Evolution at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz] contacted international researchers in order to collate the information they could provide on insect declines and to stimulate new studies on the subject.

“In view of the results available to us, we learned that not just land-use intensification, global warming, and the escalating dispersal of invasive species are the main drivers of the global disappearance of insects, but also that these drivers interact with each other,” added Menzel. For example, ecosystems deteriorated by humans are more susceptible to climate change and so are their insect communities. Added to this, invasive species can establish easier in habitats damaged by human land-use and displace the native species.

Most also agree on the effects of insect decline. There’s a good deal of attention paid to pollinators. From CNN, “Parts of the world are heading toward an insect apocalypse, study suggests” (2022):

“Three quarters of our crops depend on insect pollinators,” Dave Goulson, a professor of biology at the University of Sussex in the UK, previously told CNN. “Crops will begin to fail. We won’t have things like strawberries.

“We can’t feed 7.5 billion people without insects.”

However, I think food chain issues generally could be even more important. From Reuters, “The collapse of insects” (2022) provides this handy diagram:

Image

What happens when the species at the bottom of the food chain collapse out from under the species at the top?

* * *
The World Economic Forum published this opinion: “5 reasons why eating insects could reduce climate change” (2022):

We’ve been conditioned to think of animals and plants as our primary sources of proteins, namely meat, dairy and eggs or tofu, beans and nuts, but there’s an unsung category of sustainable and nutritious protein that has yet to widely catch on: insects.

Before you say “yuck,” hear us out.

(NPR, in its debunking of the idea that “The ruling class really, really wants us to eat bugs” omits it, oddly.) It would be amusing of this idea failed because there were no bugs to eat.

But what to do? From Princeton University Press, “Insect apocalypse” (2023):

Some solutions are obvious. Ban the worst of the insect poisons and limit the use of others. Unfortunately, most of these are manufactured by just a few giant companies who, through their immense wealth, have the ear of politicians and lawmakers. We also need to de-intensify farming to create space for insects along with other animals and plants. This could be achieved through reshaping farming subsidies, but this too is painfully slow to filter into the minds of political leaders.

And then, of course, climate change. But we can also consider helping the insects by land use changes, not such a heavy lift. From Nature, “Agriculture and climate change are reshaping insect biodiversity worldwide” (2022):

A high availability of nearby natural habitat often mitigates reductions in insect abundance and richness associated with agricultural land use and substantial climate warming but only in low-intensity agricultural systems. In such systems, in which high levels (75% cover) of natural habitat are available, abundance and richness were reduced by 7% and 5%, respectively, compared with reductions of 63% and 61% in places where less natural habitat is present (25% cover). Our results show that insect biodiversity will probably benefit from mitigating climate change, preserving natural habitat within landscapes and reducing the intensity of agriculture.

We can also help the insects by, as it were, brightening the corners where they are. From EurekAlert, “Monarch butterflies need help, and a little bit of milkweed goes a long way“:

Research shows that planting milkweed in home gardens can add significant monarch habitat to the landscape. In a new study in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, researchers and community scientists monitored urban milkweed plants for butterfly eggs to learn what makes these city gardens more hospitable to monarchs. They found that even tiny city gardens attracted monarchs and became a home to caterpillars.

(Alert reader sc is a milkweed maven; see here.) And of course it’s always possible to plant flowers:


I know all these efforts are small, individual efforts. But if we think of climate change as a great fire, we can see that some of the seeds that we, as individuals, plant will survive and grow when we are through the evolutionary chokepoint and the fire has burnt itself out (albeit in a different world from the one we now live in).

For a coming post, I’ll see if there are more muscular and systemic efforts that can be taken (for example, classifying some insects as endangered species; curbing insecticide use at the municipal level; getting HOAs to surrender their lawn fetish). However, we (for some definition of “we”) would have to act quickly and from partial knowledge. But for now, we can do lots of these small things.

NOTES

[1] The same seems to be true of medical entomologists. Recently, a Japanese scientists discovered an insect vector for H5N1 (the blowfly). It would be a shame of we lost that capability.

[2] There are also particular causes within these general causes, like the effect of climate on insect digestive systems and phenology (the timing of various larval stages and emergence of flying adults, dams, and streetlights making leaves tougher. Also, generalists (cockroaches) tend to thrive, and specialists (monarch butterflies) not.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/08 ... -soon.html

Climate Change and Hard Labor: The Rising Toll on Outdoor Workers
Posted on August 6, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. This is far from the first time that outdoor temperatures have played a big role in the treatment of exposed workers. In the US, cotton farming slaves were treated as assets: sold, traded, even used as collateral for financing. By contrast, slaves in Haiti, used in for much harsher sugar cultivation, were treated as disposable. They were worked until they died and were replaced by new shipments.

It is not hard to imagine , as this article signals, outdoor laborer will again be too often treated as expendable, even if employers and governments make considerable efforts to hide that fact.

By Kurt Cobb, a freelance writer and communications consultant who writes frequently about energy and environment. Originally published at OilPrice


Rising global temperatures are leading to unsafe working conditions for outdoor laborers, including Disney employees and farmworkers.
Heat-related health incidents and fatalities are increasing, posing significant risks to worker well-being and productivity.
The economic burden of extreme heat includes higher costs for employers, reduced output, and increased food prices.
Who will pay for the cost of overheated humans in the age of climate change?

One of the inevitable consequences of climate change is that in most places temperatures will rise. This may seem welcome (at least for a while) in cooler regions, but most people live in temperate and tropical zones. When the Walt Disney Co. built Disney World in central Florida—it opened in 1971—the location was warm and sunny three seasons of the year, even if a little hot in the summer.

Now, central Florida is not just a little hot in the summer; it has become unbearable for many of Disney World’s employees who must work outside, some of them wearing heavy costumes while playing such roles as Mickey Mouse, Goofy, and Disney princesses. With the local heat index rising above 100 degrees F, outdoor workers are becoming overheated and complaining about lack access to shade, water and adequate break time. Recently, a broken air-conditioner in a waiting room for actors led to two fainting incidents—after which the air-conditioner was repaired.

Of course, Disney workers aren’t the only ones suffering from overheating. Those working in farm fields aren’t there to entertain people, but to do heavy work in the noonday sun. The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) reports that farmworkers suffer heat-related mortality at rates 20 times those of other workers. The EDF calculates that 2 million farmworkers in the United States now face 21 days a year during which heat conditions are unsafe. But climate change is a moving target. If global greenhouse gas emissions peak at mid-century, that would add an additional 18 days of unsafe heat conditions.

So, the question arises: Who will pay the cost of the overheated work environment? In Florida, apparently the cost will be the foisted on workers in the form of heat-related health incidents and perhaps even more heat-related deaths as the Florida legislature has passed a bill that prevents municipal governments from promulgating heat-related work rules to protect workers. For many workers, protection from heat can now only come through union contracts.

According to the Orlando Weekly article linked above, “Just three states in the U.S. — California, Oregon and Washington — require heat breaks for outdoor workers, while only Minnesota and Oregon currently have heat safety regulations for indoor workers.” But, climate change is now making overheated humans a growing issue.

The problem is showing up in India, much of which is tropical, where outdoor work becomes more and more unbearable as the temperature rises. Consulting firm McKinsey & Co. projected in a 2020 report “that India could become one of the first places in the world to experience heat waves that cross the survivability limit for a healthy human being resting in the shade, and this could occur as early as next decade.” Contemplate that for a minute: An Indian working outdoors won’t even be able to avoid dangerous overheating while “resting in the shade.”

Those who will bear the costs include anyone who works outside such as construction workers, farmworkers, athletes playing outdoors, employees in outdoor entertainment and sports venues, and the list goes on and on. Ultimately, all of us will pay in the form of higher costs to attract workers to work in more dangerous outdoor environments, in the form of lower productivity for those that do, and in the form of higher food costs as crop yields suffer under the stress of heat (and also under the increasingly violent floods that are accompanying climate change).

Pretending that excessive heat is not a problem that employers will have to face as the Florida legislature has done will only make matters worse. Of course, our global society could also do something about the actual cause of rising temperatures. But, so far we are only dealing with the symptoms—or, in this case, simply ignoring them.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/08 ... rkers.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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