The Long Ecological Revolution

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:58 pm

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Reflections on the crisis of the political subject in a warming planet
Originally published: Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung on March 27, 2024 by Camila Barragán (more by Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung) | (Posted Mar 30, 2024)

Summer 2023 saw record-breaking temperatures, affirming the alarming trend of global warming, which even sophisticated climate models underestimated. At the same time, Latin American communities mobilized against extractivism and for environmental protection, exemplified by the #SíalYasuní campaign in Ecuador, successfully advocating to keep oil in the ground to combat climate change and protect Indigenous groups and biodiversity. Similarly, in Argentina’s Jujuy province, an uprising opposed a constitutional reform threatening Indigenous communities’ rights due to lithium extraction. These events underscore different aspects of the contemporary socio-ecological crisis. The author aims to contribute to discussions on radical socio-ecological change, by presenting a reflection on analytical tools from the tradition of Frankfurt School critical theory, including some contemporary formulations.

It’s official: summer 2023 (in the Northern Hemisphere) was by far the warmest summer ever recorded (Planelles and Silva 2023). This is not a coincidence, but the confirmation of a global warming trend whose pace seems to have been underestimated even by the sophisticated climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Just as unprecedented peak temperatures were being recorded in several cities around the world, organized communities in Latin America were mobilizing against extractivism, as well as in favour of environmental protection and the right to protest in its defence. One of these was the #SíalYasuní (Yes to Yasuní) campaign in Ecuador, part of a struggle to stop oil exploration and drilling in the Ishpingo-Tambococha-Tiputini (ITT) oil block located within the Yasuní National Park (Rosero 2023a; YASunidos n.d.). As stated by the campaigners, avoiding oil drilling is the only sensible solution to stop climate change, to protect the Indigenous groups living in the region, and to preserve biodiversity. The campaign concluded with a referendum held on 20 August 2023, in which the majority of Ecuador’s population voted in favour of keeping the oil in the ground, forcing the dismantling of oil operations in the region within a year (Rosero 2023b). A great success, the result of this referendum must be placed in a longer-term context: ten years have gone by since the environmental organizations behind the campaign started mobilizing for the definitive halt of oil exploitation in Yasuní. Around the same time, almost 3,000 km southeast of Yasuní, in the province of Jujuy, Argentina, a popular uprising was taking place involving Indigenous communities, trade unions, and social organizations (Svampa 2023). The core of the uprising was the opposition to a provincial constitutional reform. The amendments would entail a violation of the right to protest for the communities of Jujuy, who already face the threat of dispossession of their lands. The main threat comes from lithium extraction, a key mineral for an “energy transition” whose urgent and massive implementation is presented as the only possible alternative to the fossil fuel system. This reform further undermines the communities’ capacity to resist the extractivist attack on their lands.

These episodes reveal different dimensions of the contemporary socio-ecological crisis. On the one hand, global warming has already begun to significantly disrupt both ecosystems and the ocean currents that regulate the climate on the different continents (Criado 2023). If we are to avoid the suffering, destruction, and death of human and non-human lives on unimaginable scales, stopping the extraction of fossil fuels cannot be postponed any longer. What we can take away from the organized struggle to protect the Yasuní is that this is possible, but also that we must rein in our optimism: these struggles are quantitatively very limited on a global scale, and they might take time that we no longer have. What we see in Jujuy, on the other hand, is that which is hidden by the uncritical discourse of the “energy transition”: under the apparent innocuousness of renewable energies, we recognize the unmistakable “whatever it takes” capitalist logic. This logic is sustained by authoritarian practices and deployed through the dispossession of lands for a “green” capitalism that is, unsurprisingly, fundamentally incompatible with the overcoming of the socio-ecological crisis. It feels, at times, as if the walls are closing in on us: impending crisis or impending doom, few possible pathways seem to exist, most of them have hidden traps, and none appear sufficient to escape it. How to make sense of this scenario?

In this text, I aim to contribute to the discussion regarding the contemporary subjective conditions for radical socio-ecological change. For this, I first briefly introduce the link between the contemporary socio-ecological crisis and the capitalist mode of organization. Then I focus on what will be the centre of my argument, by presenting a discussion on analytical tools from the tradition of Frankfurt School critical theory, including some contemporary formulations. I argue that the lines of inquiry charted by this tradition are relevant for current discussions regarding the political subject during the climate crisis.

CAPITALISM AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF NATURE
The socio-ecological crisis is rooted in a fundamentally contradictory mode of organizing social relations, and one which is necessarily sustained by relations of exploitation and domination: capitalism. The historical development of these capitalist social relations as an alienated social metabolism, which moves according to the logic of “an ever-accelerating process of production for the sake of production” (Postone 1993, 184), necessarily requires an ever-greater mobilization of matter and energy (mostly generated through the burning of fossil fuels). As the metabolism with nature is deeply and continuously transformed, socio-ecological cycles are destabilized, producing what John Bellamy Foster (1999, 2013)–following Marx–calls metabolic fractures. Depending on the severity and depth of these fractures, they can cause anything from the waning or disappearance of species to the collapse of particular ecosystems. Climate change is but a paradigmatic example of the capacity of the capitalist social metabolism to transform nature, only this time on a planetary scale. It demonstrates that the mode of organizing capitalist social relations has become a sort of geological force, capable of altering even the planetary metabolism and transforming climatic conditions that had remained relatively stable over the last 10,000 years.

Capital has previously demonstrated the capacity to react to metabolic fractures through, for example, the development of new technologies. However, these “fixes” have not resolved the fractures, but rather have deferred them in time or displaced them to other geographies and dimensions of the global ecosystem. In a similar manner, there are attempts to mitigate the metabolic fractures associated with climate change through massive investment in “renewable” energies (wind, solar) and the electrification of transportation. These will, however, drive a spectacular increase (six times more than at present) in the extraction of minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, manganese, cobalt, and many others, with the associated environmental degradation of lands and bodies of water. Therefore, unless the socio-ecological transformations we seek move us away from the capitalist way of organizing social relations, the mere displacement of the metabolic fractures is inevitable. We require a theory and praxis that radically breaks with what is at the heart of the capitalist mode of organization: the self-valorization of value and the resulting dynamics of production for production’s sake.

There is a rich and diverse anti-capitalist and ecological tradition of both thought and political organization, all of which attempts to enact different versions of this: to criticize and transform existing society with the intention of building world(s) governed both by the satisfaction of social needs and the sustainment of ecological balance (Löwy 2020; Foster 2023; Svampa 2022; Rátiva Gaona et al. 2023). Still, there is no consensus on the kind of politics that must be acted on in the present in order to build the desired socio-ecological mode of organization. What should collective energy and organization be directed towards? Revolution, social protest, and concrete demands for public policies (e.g. the Green New Deal), the sabotage of fossil fuel infrastructure, organized resistance to extractivist projects, prefigurative politics?

Faced with the question of what to do, the discussion tends to be articulated in the tension between two central themes: that which is possible and that which is necessary. In a context of climate urgency, whatever can be done must be done as soon as possible. This leads to the establishment of “pre-revolutionary” strategies that aim to mitigate the disastrous consequences of living in a capitalist society on a warming planet. This may imply, for instance, resisting particular extractive projects or promoting the transformation of national economies into “green” economies. However, these types of action fall short of the severity of the situation. We are forced to reckon with the necessity of a radically alternative political and socio-ecological project (Svampa 2020), one which, as described above, represents a radical break with capitalism: anything short of that will inevitably lead to a collapse. Such a project, however, faces a “deficit of obvious candidates” (Seaton 2022). There seems to be a kind of consensus around the current lack of collective political subjects with sufficient social power and mobilization to both halt fossil fuel extraction and resist green capitalism, not to mention to dismantle the totality of the social relations that constitute capital…

And now our argument has brought us back, apparently none the wiser, still unable to make sense of the difficulty in transcending the capitalist society that has brought us to this socio-ecological crisis. Can we still aim to do more than carry out localized resistance? Why does it sometimes seem that the possibility of an emancipatory transcendence is foreclosed?

CAPITALISM AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF (INTERNAL) NATURE
We find ourselves in an enigmatic position: aware of being, as a society, on the verge of extinction, while unable to glimpse at even a remote possibility for massive global uprisings capable of stopping the machinery that is inexorably leading us to catastrophe. Possible explanations for this abound: it has been argued that this has to do with insufficient knowledge of climate change, its severity and temporality, its structural causes, or the transformations needed to stop it. Other perspectives focus on the power relations: the tremendously concentrated economic and political power of transnational and state-owned fossil fuel companies, versus the relative weakness of the affected communities that could confront them. Although important, these arguments are not enough to make sense of the “enigma of docility” (Zamora 2007) in the face of a foreseeable collapse.

It is not the first time that an enigma of this nature has intrigued those concerned with radical social transformation. In the decades following the Russian Revolution of 1917, thinkers of the European Marxist tradition tried to make sense of the “failure of the revolution in the West” (Zamora 2007, 27). How to explain that, contrary to what was expected by dominant theory–according to which the sharpening of economic contradictions would generate the conditions for revolution–revolutionary attempts in Western European countries were practically non-existent? The social conformity of dominated subjects could no longer be convincingly explained solely by the capitalist use of coercive violence or ideology (ibid.). Therefore, this demanded that Marxist theory incorporate developments from other theoretical approaches capable of elucidating the psychological and unconscious dimensions of human action. The tradition of Frankfurt School critical theory–through the work of intellectuals such as Max Horkheimer or Theodor W. Adorno–drew from Freud’s psychoanalytic theory to explore the way that social domination was extended to the psychic life of individuals.

The Marxist concept of commodity fetishism was fundamental in this endeavour. It enabled dealing with the inverted appearance of the objective social relations within capitalist society, in which relations between people–commodity producers–appear to be relations between things–the products of their objectified labour (Marx 2022 [1873]). In such a distorted world, that which is social and the product of historical development appears to be natural and object-like (Adorno 2000 [1968]). More than subjective appearances, these are objectively necessary illusions which hide–by naturalizing it–the fundamentally antagonistic character of capitalist society. The culture industry was fundamental for the internalization of commodity fetishism. When Horkheimer and Adorno coined the concept of “the culture industry” (Horkheimer and Adorno 2002 [1944]), they used it to critically refer to the mass production and consumption of cultural products (movies, radio programmes, cars, and advertisements, etc.), which constituted a totalizing framework of socialization in the Fordist United States of the 1940s and 50s (Maiso 2010). Through their consumption of cultural-industrial products, individuals were increasingly socialized to passively internalize the systematic standardization, repetition, and sameness of industrial commodity production (Prusik 2020), profoundly impoverishing their capacity for genuine life experiences. This also ultimately functioned as a compensatory mechanism, a distraction from the suffering of capitalist social life (ibid.).

Simultaneously, other transformations in objective social relations were taking place. The emergence of a deeply technified, “potentially all-embracing” mass society meant capitalist socialization could penetrate deeper into the intimate realm of social life (Maiso 2010, 46). Previous modes of the socialization of individuals, traditionally mediated through institutions such as the family, gave way to a mode of socialization in which coercion and social imperatives come to impose themselves “directly, without mediation” (Maiso 2019, 76). Individuals were directly confronted with a strong system that increasingly monopolized the means of existence. In such a context, conformity with the existing order turned out to be the safest and most adequate option to make such a power imbalance psychologically bearable (ibid., 50). This led Horkheimer and Adorno (2002 [1944]) to posit that society could no longer be thought of in terms of the autonomous, liberal individual, but increasingly as the sum of atomized, impotent, and vulnerable “pseudo-individuals”, to whom the rest of men exist “only in estranged forms, as enemies or allies, but always as instruments, things” (Horkheimer and Adorno 2002 [1944], 49).

Adorno and Horkheimer noted that society’s unmediated violence against the individual was not without a cost: it was paid at the price of profound internal suffering. Adapting to the social machinery required self-repression of libidinal drives (Horkheimer and Adorno 2002 [1944]). In some cases, the powerlessness felt by the weak ego in its direct confrontation with–and ultimate submission to–social coercion could be compensated by the pleasure that came with identification with a powerful entity (be it an authoritarian government or other forms of collective super-ego) (Robles 2020, 2021). This psychological mechanism of identification with authority gives an (often misplaced) sense of security (ibid.) Perceived threats to this precarious security easily turn into acts of aggression towards an external, usually weaker scapegoat (Jews, women, migrants, etc.), as it is difficult for the weak ego to direct its accumulated repressed aggressive drives against those who actually exercise power and authority over it (Zamora 2013). It is through these socio-psychological mechanisms that authoritarianism, anti-Semitism, fascism, racism, nationalism, or misogyny were already prefigured as latent phenomena in capitalist society.

NEOLIBERAL CONDITIONS OF CAPITALIST SOCIALIZATION
We are living in a different historical moment than that experienced by Horkheimer and Adorno. Profound transformations of work and culture, among other things, herald profound transformations in subjectivation. Socialization is increasingly mediated through impersonal digital networks, which represent an intensified conditioning by commodity fetishism. Individuals are no longer passive recipients of mass produced industrial-cultural products. Consumption under neoliberalism, mediated by the digital world, requires active, flexible, and adaptative participation (through the use of smartphones, video games and virtual reality devices, content creation on social media, etc.) thereby deepening the transformation of the very structure of experience (Prusik 2020). Horkheimer and Adorno (2002 [1944]) already postulated the demise of the autonomous, liberal individual in the form of atomized “pseudo-individuals”. It could be argued that individuality is today further liquidated, ironically, under a veil of individualism: the “compulsory need to stand out” and broadcast one’s singularity in the virtual space may be only a sign of the heightened grip that the social totality holds on the production of the self (Prusik 2020, 155).

Subjective transformations are intensified by post-Fordist changes in the patterns of socialization in the work sphere. Being “willing” to sell one’s labour power is no longer sufficient. The mobilization of the cognitive, creative, communicative, and affective skills of the individuals becomes a capitalist imperative in the new organization of work (Zamora 2013). The whole of the person becomes a potential reservoir for heightened productivity, encouraging individuals to relate to their own selves according to the market competitiveness of their particular subjective qualities (Demirovic 2013). This requires the worker to showcase levels of individuality and authenticity which they increasingly are incapable of providing, as they fade into insignificance when faced with the very objective social relations that demand them. Furthermore, in the context of a precarious job market with diminishing employment opportunities, the entrepreneurial relation to oneself is likely to end in recurring failures to successfully sell one’s subjective abilities in such a way that it guarantees a decent living (ibid.). Heightened demands for adaptation collide with the impossibility of its realization, giving way to increasingly generalized burnout syndromes, extenuation, and depression (Zamora 2013). As the imbalance of power between the precarious individual and the social totality intensifies, the wider process of reification further extends social domination by commodity fetishism to the psychic life of individuals. What could be the implications for our collective capacity to act and transform?

CLOSING REMARKS
Socialization of individuals today is no longer that of an all-embracing mass society held together by the promise of social security and integration (which could only truly materialize in the core countries of the global capitalist system), as originally described by the Frankfurt School tradition. Our contemporary reality is instead “radically insecure” (Gandesha 2018): extreme precarity of living conditions coincides with the possibility of planetary collapse. The unfolding of capitalist social relations has resulted, on the one hand, in the intensification of the transformation of external nature at a planetary scale, but also the transformation of what we could call the “internal nature” of people or the constitution of their subjectivity. This has implications for the ways in which the socio-ecological crisis can be experienced, “processed” and acted upon by contemporary subjects, at a time when a radical socio-ecological transformation is indispensable.

While the subjective conditions for revolution are not immediately apprehensible, organized resistance in the face of social and environmental devastation–as manifested in the #SíalYasuní and the popular uprising in Jujuy–exists, and sometimes even wins. Yet, the danger is still latent that the climate crisis will, nevertheless, strengthen the subjective conditions for authoritarianism or other reactionary forms of politicization. The subject socialized under neoliberal conditions is weaker, atomized, and more exhausted than ever. Can we, under these conditions, still build on localized struggles in such a way that it translates into a sufficiently large and powerful social mobilization able to build the indispensable radical socio-ecological transformation? In this text, I have attempted to argue that the rich tradition of Frankfurt School critical theory (including its contemporary formulations)–although it cannot give a direct, practical, and unequivocal answer to such a necessary question–can help us navigate the enigmas of subjectivity in contemporary capitalism and enrich the reflection on the urgent and necessary socio-ecological transformation from the perspective of its subjective conditions of possibility.

References:
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Criado, Miguel Ángel (2023), “La principal corriente oceánica que regula el clima muestra señales de colapso”, El País, 25 July, available at https://elpais.com/ciencia/2023-07-25/l ... lapso.html. Last accessed on 1 March 2024.
Demirovic, Alex (2013), “Crisis del Sujeto—Perspectivas de la Capacidad de Acción. Preguntas a la Teoría Crítica del Sujeto”, Constelaciones, vol. 5.
Foster, John Bellamy (1999), “Marx’s Theory of Metabolic Rift: Classical Foundations for Environmental Sociology”, American Journal of Sociology, vol. 105, no. 2, pp. 366—405.
——— (2013), “Marx and the Rift in the Universal Metabolism of Nature”, Monthly Review, available at https://monthlyreview.org/2013/12/01/ma ... ture/#fn13. Last accessed on 9 March 2023.
——— (2023), “Planned Degrowth: Ecosocialism and Sustainable Human Development”, Monthly Review, available at https://monthlyreview.org/2023/07/01/planned-degrowth/. Last accessed on 20 August 2023.
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Rátiva Gaona, Sandra, Daniela Del Bene, Melisa Argento, Sofía Ávila, Ana María Veintimilla, Daniel Jeziorny, and Felipe Milanez (2023), “Transición energética. Consenso hegemónico y disputas desde el Sur”, Ecología Política, no. 65.
Robles, Gustavo (2020), “El fin de algunas ilusiones: Subjetividad y democracia en tiempos de regresión autoritaria”, Resistances: Journal of the Philosophy of History, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 14—27.
——— (2021), “Crisis de la experiencia y (pos)fascismos. Lecturas desde la Teoría Crítica”, Constelaciones, Revista de Teoría Crítica, no. 13, pp. 312—39.
Rosero, Santiago (2023a), “La larga lucha por salvar al Yasuní de la explotación petrolera”, El País, 27 May, available at https://elpais.com/america-futura/2023- ... olera.html. Last accessed on 29 February 2024.
——— (2023b), “Una consulta popular le dice sí a proteger el Yasuní”, El País, 21 August, available at https://elpais.com/america-futura/2023- ... asuni.html. Last accessed on 29 February 2024.
Seaton, Lola (2022), “Afterword”, Who Will Build the Ark? Debates on Climate Strategy from New Left Review, edited by B. Kunkel and L. Seaton, London: Verso Books.
Svampa, Maristella (2020), “¿Hacia dónde van los movimientos por la justicia climática?”, Nueva Sociedad, no. 286, available at https://www.nuso.org/articulo/hacia-don ... climatica/. Last accessed on 29 February 2024.
——— (2022), “Dilemas de la transición ecosocial desde América Latina”, Oxfam Intermón working paper.
——— (2023), “Jujuy, postal de la Argentina frágil y en peligro”, Revista Anfibia, 17 July, available at https://www.revistaanfibia.com/jujuy-po ... la-svampa/. Last accessed on 1 March 2024.
YASunidos (undated), “Preguntas Frecuentes”, available at https://www.yasunidos.org/preguntas-frecuentes/. Last accessed on 1 March 2024.
Zamora, José (2007), “El enigma de la docilidad Teoría de la sociedad y psicoanálisis en Th. W. Adorno”, El pensamiento de Th. W. Adorno: balance y perspectivas, edited by M. Cabot Ramis, pp. 27—42.
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https://mronline.org/2024/03/30/reflect ... ng-planet/

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Yellen Plans To Confront China For ‘Unfair’ Clean Energy Subsidies
Posted on March 29, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is going to China next month and plans to press China on its green energy industrial policy. There is an interesting question as to where to draw the line between subsidies that are anti-competitive versus ones considered to be kosher.

The US has a lot to answer for here, in terms of how badly we have neglected our industrial base and allowed financiers to engage in short-termism that has vitiated R&D programs intended to give a leg up. I have referred from time to time to a case study in Marianna Mazzucato’s The Entrepreneurial State, in which the Federal government sponsored LED flat panel research, with the intent of giving a head start to US manufacturing. Venture capitalists refused to back any LED companies, pooh-poohing the potential returns.

The flip side is expert like Michael Pettis have pointed out the simply massive proportion of GDP that China had been devoting to real estate development. Now that prices are seriously in reverse, to the point of being deflationary, China turned to promoting investment in green energy. This has purportedly occurred on such a scale as to blunt the impact of the housing bubble unwind. As Dima of Military Summary would say, “That’s a lot!”

I am frustrated at the lack of much in the way of data (to its credit, the post below does provide some). The loan increase below does not prove the scope of government support. Nevertheless, such a big rise does not look entirely organic:


Of course, there is also a philosophical issue. Many experts concede that getting enough consumer uptake of green energy sources and products will in fact require a lot of government support, and that includes potentially hefty subsidies. So if the US and EU are not willing to provide enough backing to get these products used on a widespread basis, should we be kvetching that China is filling the gap? This is yet another case where some movement in the direction of trying to save the planet gets tangled up in commercial interests and the desire to preserve employment.

Hopefully we will soon see some informed commentary as to whether Yellen’s charges are in line with WTO rules, or are mainly politically-driven noise-making.

By Alex Kimani, a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com. Originally published at OilPrice

Yellen: I intend to warn Beijing that its national underwriting for energy and other companies is creating oversupply and distorting global markets.
Yellen made the comments after visiting Georgia to see a newly reopened solar cell manufacturing plant.
A couple of days ago, China filed a complaint against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization, for electric vehicle subsidies arguing the requirements are discriminatory.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has revealed that she intends to warn Beijing that its national underwriting for energy and other companies is creating oversupply and distorting global markets when she pays the country an official visit.

“I intend to talk to the Chinese when I visit about overcapacity in some of these industries, and make sure that they understand the undesirable impact that this is having–flooding the market with cheap goods- -on the United States, but also in many of our closest allies, Yellen said in a speech in Norcross, Georgia.

“I will convey my belief that excess capacity poses risks not only to American workers and firms and to the global economy, but also productivity and growth in the Chinese economy, as China itself acknowledged in its National People’s Congress this month,” she added.

Yellen made the comments after visiting Georgia to see a newly reopened solar cell manufacturing plant, which closed shop in 2017 because of stiff competition from factories in China. The factory has, however, re-opened thanks to generous solar and clean energy tax credits in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.

A couple of days ago, China filed a complaint against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization, for electric vehicle subsidies arguing the requirements are discriminatory.

China has pumped in more than $50 billion in wafer-to-solar panel production lines, 10x more than Europe, and also controls a staggering ~95% of the world’s polysilicon and wafer supply. Last year, the International Energy Agency warned of the dangers of the world relying so heavily on China’s solar anc clean energy sector.

“The world will almost completely rely on China for the supply of key building blocks for solar panel production through 2025. This level of concentration in any global supply chain would represent a considerable vulnerability,” the agency wrote in a special report.

China is so dominant that it’s now, single-handedly, changing global solar standards: Last year, a Chinese IT columnist declared that large silicons sized between 182mm and 210mm would become the world’s standard thanks to their market share growing from 4.5% in 2020 to 45% in 2021, adding that they would probably increase to 90% in the near future.

Other than heavy investments and subsidies, Beijing has started taking extra measures in order to maintain its leading status and global market share in renewable energy manufacturing. Last year, in a mirror image of what the U.S. has been doing with its semiconductor lithography technology, China amended its rules to ban the export of several core solar panel technologies. Following the ban, Chinese solar manufacturers are forbidden from using their large silicon, black silicon and cast-mono silicon technologies overseas, according to guidelines published by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology.

“China’s export restraints are Exhibit A on the need to rapidly scale American solar manufacturing,” Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the U.S. business lobby Solar Energy Industries Association, told WSJ after the Biden administration launched the IRA, which has been hailed as a game-changer for the solar sector.

Although China produces more than 80% of the world’s solar panels and modules, solar exports have faced heavy tariffs imposed by the U.S. over the past decade. This has forced some Chinese manufacturers to move their facilities to countries like Malaysia and Thailand in a bid to avoid the tariffs. However, Beijing does not approve this trend because it does not want them to take their core technologies abroad. Technology experts have pointed out that China wants to prevent India from becoming a major competitor and one of the world’s leading solar panel suppliers.

Back in 2011, the U.S. Commerce Department ruled that China was dumping solar panels in the U.S. market and imposed duties on Chinese solar panels a year later. In June 2022, the Biden administration said it would waive tariffs on solar panels imported to the U.S. from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam for 24 months after Chinese solar firms moved their operations there. Previously, the U.S. placed tariffs on solar products from these countries and even on Taiwan, a close ally, after it deemed that Chinese manufacturers had moved their operations offshore to evade U.S. tariffs.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/03 ... idies.html

(The primary goal of 'Green Capitalism' is not ecological but rather market share.)

Of Life and Lithium
Posted on March 29, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. This post notes that there are problems with lithium, both supply and environmental cost, relative to hoped-for demand for electric vehicles. Of course there are alternate battery types that could replace lithium ones, as well as expectations that car-makers will keep becoming more efficient in their use of materials, including lithium. But it is not clear than any of this will come into play soon enough to prevent a cost crunch and/or damage to aquifers and wildlife.

By Joshua Frank. Originally published at TomDispatch

With his perfect tan and slicked-back hair, California Governor Gavin Newsom stood at a podium at Sacramento’s Cal Expo in late September 2020 and announced an executive order requiring all new passenger vehicles sold in the state to be zero-emissions by 2035. With the global Covid pandemic then at its height, Newsom was struggling to inject a bit of hope into the future, emphasizing that his order would prove a crucial step in the fight against climate change while serving as a major boon to the state’s economy. Later approved by the California Air Resources Board, his order is now being reviewed by the Environmental Protection Agency. For his part, President Biden has moved to tighten regulations on tailpipe exhaust, a not-so-subtle way of pushing car manufacturers to go electric.


As Newsom said shortly before signing his order on the hood of a bright red electric Ford Mustang Mach-E:

“Our cars shouldn’t make wildfires worse and create more days filled with smoky air. Cars shouldn’t melt glaciers or raise sea levels threatening our cherished beaches and coastlines… This is the next big global industry, and California wants to dominate it. And that’s in detoxifying and decarbonizing our transportation fleets… And so today, California is making a big, bold move in that direction.”

One stereotype about Californians is true: we do drive a lot, which also means we buy a lot of new cars. California is, in fact, the top seller of new vehicles in the U.S., with more than 1.78 million cars and trucks rolling off its lots in 2023. In total, significantly more than 14 million vehicles are registered in the state, nearly the same number as in Florida and Texas combined. So Newsom is undoubtedly right that ridding our roads of combustion engines will significantly reduce the state’s climate toll. After all, California’s transportation sector alone is responsible for more than 40% of its greenhouse gas emissions.

On the surface, Newsom’s executive order appears all too necessary, indeed vital, if the use of fossil fuels is to one day be eliminated and climate change mitigated. California is also home to more than 50 electric vehicle manufacturers, and car companies that don’t get on board will soon find themselves “on the wrong side of history,” as Newsom warned. “And they’ll have to recover economically, not just recover in terms of being able to look their kids and grandkids in the eyes.”

Underpinning the governor’s ambitious goal of an all-electric future is another reality. While we may change the kinds of cars we drive, we won’t change our lifestyles to fit a climate-challenged future. Millions upon millions of new zero-emission vehicles will be required and to create them, we’ll need staggering amounts of resources that are still lodged below the earth’s crust. On average, a single battery in a small electric car today contains eight kilograms (17.5 pounds) of lithium, or “white gold.” To put that in perspective, if Californians continue to purchase vehicles at the same pace as in 2023, the amount of lithium required will exceed 113 million kilograms (249 million pounds) annually going forward.

That’s a mountain of lithium and an awful lot of mining will need to be done to make the governor’s plan a reality. And mind you, those figures are lowball estimates — a Tesla Model S battery needs 62.6 kilograms of lithium, for instance — and they don’t address the additional mining electric vehicles will demand to produce considerable amounts of cobalt (14 kilograms), manganese (20 kilograms), and copper (upwards of 80 kilograms) per car. Newsom is correct: ridding California’s sprawling freeways of gas-guzzlers is a necessity and will also be highly profitable, especially for the extraction industry. Nevertheless, it will come with significant cultural and environmental costs that must be accounted for.

A Lithium Bonanza

It’s a scorching hot afternoon in the middle of August and I’m heading west on State Route 293 through Humboldt County in northern Nevada. I’m just a few miles south of where the Thacker Pass lithium mine operation has broken ground. The terrain, managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), part of the Department of the Interior, is sparse and vast. The sky is cloudless, the soil bone-dry. I pass a coyote scampering through the sagebrush. In the distance, the Montana Mountains rise above the flats, casting a long shadow. While dramatically serene, this landscape, located in the middle of the McDermitt Caldera, along with its almost boundless lithium deposits, holds a hauntingly shameful history.

On September 12, 1865, American soldiers carried out a massacre of the Numu (Northern Paiute) near Thacker Pass. Natives call the area “Peehee mu’huh,” or “rotten moon,” to honor the victims. As the story goes, Indigenous Numu were being hunted by the 1st Nevada Cavalry and decided to hide out near Thacker Pass. Dozens of them, including women and children, were eventually found and slaughtered.

An article in the September 30, 1865 edition of The Owyhee Avalanche detailed the carnage. “A charge was ordered and each officer and man went for scalps, and fought the scattering devils over several miles of ground for three hours, in which time all were killed that could be found.” In all, 31 bodies were located, but “more must have been kill[ed] and died from their wounds, as a strict search was not made and the extent of the battlefield so great.”

Today, descendants of the massacre victims are still fighting to designate Thacker Pass and the surrounding area as a memorial site in the National Register of Historic Places. By doing so, they hope the bulldozers will be forced to shut off their engines and lithium mining will cease. In 2021, federal judge Miranda Du rejected their plea, noting that the evidence they presented was “too speculative” to stop the company, Lithium Americas, from prospecting there. In the years since then, the protesters have encountered significant setbacks but have refused to quit.

“All the people here on the reservation were not consulted when this mine was approved,” says Dorece Sam, a descendant of Ox Sam, one of only three survivors of the bloody 1865 massacre at Thacker Pass. Along with six others, he’s currently being sued by Lithium Nevada Corp. (a subsidiary of Lithium Americas) for protesting the mine. “Myself as an Ox Sam descendant, it means a lot to me to know and watch… as the grounds become more and more desecrated. It’s hard to see and hard to watch.”

Lithium Americas pitched its plan to the BLM in 2019 and broke ground at Thacker Pass in March 2023. Native tribes and environmental groups have argued in various court proceedings that the BLM rushed its environmental review without properly consulting the tribes in the approval process. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals shot down their best-chance lawsuit in July.

In a previous 2023 ruling, a lower court stated that the BLM had indeed violated federal law by approving the mine since Lithium Americas hadn’t demonstrated its rights to the 1,300 acres it would, in the future, bury in waste rock from its mining. Despite that acknowledgment, presiding Judge Du failed to revoke the company’s permits.

“Our hearts are heavy hearing the decision that Judge Du did not revoke the permits for the Thacker Pass Lithium Mine. Indigenous people’s sacred sites should not be at the expense of the climate crisis the U.S. faces. Destroying Peehee Mu’huh is like cultural genocide,” said the People of Red Mountain, Indigenous Land and Culture protectors, following Du’s decision.

The “Right” to Mine

While the courts ruled in favor of the Bureau of Land Management’s audit, few are disputing that the Thacker project will have a deleterious impact on the region. For one thing, when the mine is up and running, it will need an exorbitant amount of groundwater for its operations. An estimated 1.7 billion gallons sucked from the Quinn River Valley, an already overburdened aquifer, will have to be pumped into the mine annually. Opponents of the project also note that chemicals used in the lithium extraction process could leach into groundwater supplies, polluting nearby creeks, home to the already threatened Lahontan cutthroat trout. The Thacker basin is also a vibrant wildlife corridor for pronghorn antelope, mule deer, and home to the single largest sage-grouse population in Nevada.

In total, the Thacker Pass mine, the largest known lithium deposit in this country, could one day eat up more than 17,000 acres of public lands, more than half the size of San Francisco. It’s set to be the largest lithium mine in the country, churning out as many as 40,000 metric tons annually, enough to power 800,000 electric vehicles. Inevitably, Thacker will make Lithium Americas’ shareholders very rich, bringing them an estimated nearly $4 billion once all the recoverable lithium is extracted. However, that projection, from 2021, was based on the price of lithium when it sold for an average of $12,600 per ton. By 2023, a ton of lithium was selling for around $46,000.

Promising that the mine will power its all-electric-vehicle future, General Motors now holds exclusive rights to the lithium the mine will extract and has invested $650 million in it. President Biden’s Department of Energy is also all in, loaning $2.26 billion to Lithium Americas to jump-start the project.

The Thacker Pass lithium mine is but one of many examples of the way once venerable Native lands have been and continue to be exploited. The 1872 Mining Act and the Dawes Act of 1887 have long permitted the federal government to stake claims to tribal lands without their consent.

“The Mining Law allows United States citizens and firms to explore for minerals and establish rights to federal lands without authorization from any government agency. This provision, known as self-initiation or free access, is the cornerstone of the Mining Law,” reads a report on that law by Lawrence University economics professor David Gerard. “If a site contains a deposit that can be profitably marketed, claimants enjoy the ‘right to mine,’ regardless of any alternative use, potential use, or non-use value of the land.”

The Dawes Act went even further, allowing the federal government to divide tribal lands into smaller parcels that could be sold off to individual buyers, part of a sinister scheme to delegitimize Native sovereignty on lands that had been stolen from them in the first place.

“It served the larger purpose because the larger purpose was twofold: to make us more like white people or destroy us and get large amounts of land out of Native control and into the hands of individual, non-Native citizens,” says Kelli Mosteller, director of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation Cultural Heritage Center. “The Dawes Act solidified once again the distrust that has settled in about dealing with the government. Every time the government comes in and asks for something, there is always that ulterior motive.”

The mine at Thacker Pass, which will end up slicing a gash in the earth a mile wide and 2.3 miles long, is just the latest example of an ugly legacy of ravaging former Native lands for profit.

“Are we still in a situation where the rich get rich and the tribes get poorer because they don’t get a dime off of the mining that happens within their original lands? That’s hard to swallow,” says Arlan Melendez, chair of the Reno-Sparks Indian Colony.

Going Back to California

A significant underground lithium deposit has also been discovered near the south end of California’s dilapidated and toxic Salton Sea, once a playground for Hollywood’s elite. While it’s not nearly as large as the one at Thacker Pass, estimates put the extractable deposits of lithium at upwards of 18 million metric tons, enough to eventually fill 380 million electric vehicle batteries.

Of course, digging out all that smoldering “white gold” will come at a cost there, too, not just economically but environmentally. What those effects will be, exactly, has yet to be revealed. Even so, Governor Newsom made his way to the Imperial Valley and the Salton Sea, a region he hopes might be transformed into a hub for electric battery production and that he’s smugly branded “Lithium Valley.”

“California is poised to become the world’s largest source of batteries, and it couldn’t come at a more crucial moment in our efforts to move away from fossil fuels,” said Newsom. “The future happens here first — and Lithium Valley is fast-tracking the world’s clean energy future.”

How clean that future will be remains to be seen. Here’s one thing to consider, though: no matter how this all turns out, Newsom’s electrified vision of the future doesn’t mean fewer vehicles on the road or a reduction in America’s energy consumption. The California governor isn’t about to challenge the tenets of global capitalism that, with a significant helping hand from global warming, are already driving us toward the brink of ecological collapse. In all too many ways, at least as now planned, more mining, even of lithium, will mean not a new world but an all-too-grim continuation of the status quo. The key difference is that this time around, it will come with a “green” stamp of approval.

In other words, despite the horrors of climate change, the present approach to fixing it, whether by mining for lithium in the Salton Sea or dredging up the spirits of Thacker Pass, is deeply problematic. As long as every single thing on this planet remains a commodity to be exploited for profit, whether labor or natural resources, humanity will remain in crisis. If we proceed as planned down this violent and bumpy road ahead, we may (or may not) save our imperiled climate, but one thing is certain: our little planet will be left in ruins while the wealthy speed off in their Teslas.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/03 ... thium.html
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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Fri Apr 05, 2024 1:45 pm

Shock Discovery: Huge Carbon Credit Project in Australia Turns Out to Be a Sham
ENVIRONMENT
28 March 2024
BySTEVEN TRASK, AFP

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(Yuga Kurita/Getty Images)

Australia's carbon credit scheme was undermined by damning new research Wednesday, which found a world-leading reforestation project had been an underperforming "catastrophe".


Vast swathes of land across Australia's desert Outback have been earmarked for native forest regeneration, which is meant to offset emissions as new trees suck up carbon.

But researchers have found that across almost 80 percent of these plantations forest growth was either stagnant – or that woodlands were shrinking.

Despite this, Australia had used these projects to bank millions of tonnes in questionable carbon credits, scientists said, which are used to supposedly offset polluting industries.

"I think it can only be described, and I'm using generous words here, as a gross failure," lead author Andrew Macintosh told AFP.

"It's a catastrophe," he said, adding that it would "stain" Australia's reputation.

Australia has set aside almost 42 million hectares (104 million acres) under the scheme, an area larger than the landmass of Japan.

Researchers said it was "one of the world's largest" natural carbon offset projects.

Officials claim that since 2013, the native forest spreading across this land has sucked up more than 27 million tonnes of carbon.

But the peer-reviewed research, which used satellite imagery to chart forest growth, has cast serious doubt on this figure.

"They should be showing really strong increases in tree cover," said Macintosh, a former chair of the government body responsible for tracking Australia's carbon offsets.

"And it's not there, we're not seeing it."

Each ton of carbon sequestered by these forests is chalked up as a single carbon credit.

These carbon credits are then bought by mining companies, airlines, and other heavily polluting industries to offset their emissions.

Macintosh said Australia was, in essence, selling carbon credits that did not exist.

Lack of faith
"There are meant to be checks along the way. But they're not applying them," said Macintosh, now a professor of environmental law at Australian National University.

"What sort of faith do I have in the carbon credits scheme? It's very, very low. Our scheme is without a doubt amongst the least transparent in the world."

Australia's Clean Energy Regulator said "a number of reviews have confirmed the integrity" of these carbon offsets.


The regulator said it "only issues carbon credits where a project can demonstrate regenerating native forest".

Australian Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the assumptions underpinning the scheme remained "basically sound".

Climate policy has long been a fraught affair in Australia, set back by a decade of political brawling dubbed the "climate wars".

Despite its growing vulnerability to climate-linked natural disasters, Australia remains one of the world's biggest exports of gas and thermal coal.

The peer-reviewed research was published in the Nature Communications journal, Earth & Environment.

Australia has committed to cutting carbon emissions by 43 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels, on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

Australia's carbon dioxide emissions per person are among the highest in the world at 15.3 tonnes, surpassing US levels, World Bank figures show.

© Agence France-Presse

https://www.sciencealert.com/shock-disc ... -be-a-sham

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The Energy Transition: Technology Versus Political Backlash
Posted on April 4, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. This article on the effort to move to cleaner energy sources suffers from being written by economists. It sees falling costs of these new power technologies as having the promise of faster uptake. But it also presents offsetting forces, such as “‘distributional effects” (key interests not wanting their rice bowls broken; also lower income households being unable to afford green tech absent big subsidies, which are being cut due to competing demands like more war). Another bugboo is “populism” as in supposedly ideologically-motivated opposition to climate-friendly policies.

That is not to say that there is not substantial “because freedumb” opposition to efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, since they entail a lot of government intervention: subsidies, taxes, prohibitions, regulation. But here and in many cases, resistance to uptake of these newer energy sources is not due simply to libertarian cussedness but often to bona fide issues that transition touts are loath to acknowledge.

Back in the stone ages of my youth, I had a gig where I got to evaluate pretty much all the oddball tech deals that came in over the transom to a well-heeled VC fund. They had bona fide experts on normal tech like computers, software, communications. I got all the “none of the above” deals, like a new way to make synthetic diamonds, thin film solar panels, advanced batteries, a new cooking technology, and even what are now called QR codes (this over a decade before smart phones). They saw someone was going to have to figure them out de novo and I would be as good as anyone else they had to assign to do that.


I quickly worked out that most investors got derailed by letting the inventors pull them into focusing on whether the new technology performed as advertised. That was necessary but far from sufficient to see if an investment made sense.

The critical questions, which I soon inferred many moneybags overlooked, were:

1. What were the competing products and technologies, and how did this offering stack up? The inventors almost without exception defined competition too narrowly, as around their technology, and not in terms of what customers or consumers would see as potential substitutes.

2. How much will consumers/customers need to change behavior to employ this new technology?

3. How long will it take to achieve production efficiencies?

Let’s start with electric vehicles. Sales in the US have stalled. One common belief, with a lot of merit, is prices are still too high for many potential buyers. But there is a tendency to wave off #2 type issues, above all, charging. There aren’t enough EV charging stations relative to what will be, and arguably now is needed, so home charging remains very important. The cost of having an EV run out of charge is higher than having a gas car go empty, since an EV has to be towed. So there’s greater downside and cost. Most importantly, despite the press tending to focus on consumers not yet eating enough of the EV dogfood, there’s a failure to deal with the faltering state of the US grid, the reported failure of utilities to invest to increase capacity, and the resulting potential for brownouts and rolling blackouts. I am sure readers can add other EV questions, like heavier cars leading to shorter tire life, and replacing tires is not just a hard cost but also a time cast.

So this article implicitly ignores some of the neglected real world issues with a big technology/infrastructure changeover as bona fide reasons for foot-dragging.

By Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Research Director and Economic Counsellor International Monetary Fund; Director, Clausen Center for International Business and Policy; S.K. and Angela Chan Professor of Global Management in the Department of Economics and Haas School of Business University Of California, Berkeley; Gregor Schwerhoff, Economist International Monetary Fund; and Antonio Spilimbergo, Deputy Director, IMF Research Department International Monetary Fund. .Originally published at VoxEU

The ambition of the Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to “well below 2°C”. This column argues that while some progress towards this aim has been made, substantially more policy action is required. Since 2015, new challenges have emerged for climate policy, including rising populism, shrinking fiscal space, a surge in inflation, higher interest rates, and concerns for energy security. At the same time, technology has progressed faster than expected, bringing a substantial cost reduction for green energy. The success of green policies in containing greenhouse gases depends on the race between political backlash and technological progress.

Recent developments in climate policy paint a gloomy picture: the UK government is backtracking on previous climate commitments; the US is delaying and watering down planned pollution regulation; and China and India continue to build coal power plants. 1 As a result, current efforts are far from sufficient to honour the 2015 Paris Agreement, which requires limiting global warming to “well below 2°C” (Black et al. 2023).

Since then, new political challenges have been added to existing ones (Gourinchas et al. 2024). Among the existing domestic challenges are the distributional effects of climate policy. Even a well-designed climate policy, with minimal impact on aggregate activity (Metcalf and Stock 2023), could lead to significant sectoral reallocation. This causes political resistance from sectors expecting to shrink. The voluntary nature of the Paris Agreement is another existing challenge. It causes concerns about losing competitiveness through climate policy if other countries do not comply.

Among the new challenges are the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. Government programmes to support households and sectors affected by the pandemic have resulted in much-reduced fiscal space to finance the green transition. At the same time, the surge in inflation forced central banks to raise interest rates. Higher rates curtail financing for clean technology investments more than for conventional technology, because clean technology typically has a more front-loaded investment profile (Hirth and Steckel 2016).

Additional new challenges arise from the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on energy supply. With the abrupt decrease in energy trade from Russia to Europe, concerns about energy security soared and remained high for over a year (Figure 1.) The scramble to secure energy supply resulted in increased investments in fossil fuel infrastructure, especially oil and natural gas (IEA 2023). At the same time, Russia re-directed its supply of oil and natural gas away from Europe to China and India at a discount, which increased the consumption of these fuels in these two countries.

Figure 1 Weekly number of US and European newspaper articles referencing “energy security” and “green transition”, 9 October 2021 to 9 October 2023 (9 October 2021 = 100)

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Sources: ProQuest, IMF staff calculations.

Note: The green transition line comprises both “green transition” and “energy transition.”
A third group of challenges arises from rising populism. Populist movements have tended to challenge climate policies following the narrative that climate policy is a project of the ‘elites’, who stand against the will of ‘the people’, similarly to what happened to health policies during COVID-19 (Fiorino 2022, Spilimbergo 2021). Being so visible, carbon pricing – the most efficient economic tool for emission reductions – has become a primary target and source for discontent. For instance, the ‘yellow vest’ protests in France stopped an increase in gasoline taxes in 2018, and the recent protests in Europe in the agriculture and transportation sectors are focused on the Green Deal. As a result of rising populist pressures, governments have leaned against previous climate policy instead of advancing it. In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) achieved support in the US Congress partly through potentially protectionist measures, such as local content requirements that might contravene WTO rules. This reduces the opportunities for trade partners to benefit from the US green investment push. The IRA also generates an estimated $391 billion in expenses (CRFB 2022), while carbon pricing would have generated a revenue.

At the same time, climate policy was supported by significantly faster than expected technological achievements. This translated into rapid declines in the prices of low-carbon energy. As a result, the share of investments allocated to low-carbon energy technology has surpassed the share going to high-carbon energy technology (Figure 2). This process is self-reinforcing through two mechanisms. The first is learning by doing. This is most striking for solar panels: it is estimated that each doubling in cumulative production capacity in solar photovoltaics reduces prices by 22.5% (Creutzig et al. 2017). The speed of these developments has surprised even experts. Until recently, World Energy Outlook reports from the International Energy Agency projected solar energy production well below the level of what eventually materialised.

Figure 2 Global energy investment, 2010–23 (billions of 2021 USD)

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Sources: IEA (2023b), IMF staff calculations.

Note: Low-carbon = renewables, nuclear, fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, and energy efficiency; Neutral = electricity networks and storage; High-carbon = fossil fuel generation and fuel production; 2023 numbers are IEA estimates from May 2023.
The second self-reinforcing mechanism is network externalities. Until a few years ago, applied research, supply chains and human capital were fully locked into a fossil fuel equilibrium. For example, refuelling a conventional car is extremely convenient due to a dense network of petrol stations. Now, electric vehicles and renewable energy generation have reached considerable market shares and continue to grow strongly globally (Figure 3). As low-carbon infrastructure expands, low-carbon technology becomes locked in. Already, the boom in low-carbon technology is significantly affecting investments in oil and natural gas, and market expectations are changing (Bogmans et al. 2023). Tellingly, even the energy crisis of 2022 did not cause an increase in investments for fossil fuel-based powerplants (IEA 2023). For automobile manufacturers, for example, it is more profitable to invest all research and development funds into one technology in order stay at the technology frontier. Once a critical threshold is reached, a new self-sustaining equilibrium of electric vehicles can emerge (Koch et al. 2022).

Figure 3 Global electric vehicle (EV) sales and electricity generation sources

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How should policymakers navigate the race between political backlash and technological progress? First, they should further enable low-carbon technology development. Reinforcing the ongoing shift to clean technology could involve restricting sales of high-pollution goods, taxation, or phasing out polluting technologies (Van Der Ploeg and Venables 2023). The government also has an important role in directing basic research towards technologies – such as green hydrogen and negative emission technology – that are currently still expensive but are needed at a large scale by mid-century. In addition, the diffusion of technology to emerging markets and developing economies needs to be actively supported. Key to this are climate policies, both among innovating countries and recipients of technology transfers, as well as lower trade barriers (Hasna et al. 2023).

Second, climate policies should be designed to ensure fair burden sharing within and across countries, to prevent further political backlash. Surveys show that support for climate policies increases when they are effective, social fairness is ensured, and the policies are communicated well (Dechezleprêtre et al. 2022). Climate policy also needs to be designed in a way that supports international cooperation. On this, the IRA is an interesting example. The protectionist features of the policy package are not cooperative and should not be imitated. At the same time, the package is expected to accelerate low-carbon technology deployment in the US and, as a result, boost clean technology innovation. The net effect on other countries could well be positive. It is hoped that these positive spillovers will be sufficient to avert a harmful round of protectionist retaliation from other countries. But designing climate policies that are fully consistent with the international trading system is possible – and would be even more beneficial.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04 ... klash.html

Climate Engineering Carries Serious National Security Risks − Countries Facing Extreme Heat May Try It Anyway, and the World Needs to be Prepared
Posted on April 5, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. This column warns that like it or not, geo-engineering, or what this piece calls climate engineering, is coming, like it or not. We are already seeing a failure to take anything other than marginal steps to reduce greenhouse gas output.

One example discussed below is dumping reflective particles into the high atmosphere. I would be much happier with the “reflect more sunlight” solution mentioned in a Wall Street Journal op-ed in the early 2000s, of painting all flat roofs and treating most/all roads with highly sun-reflective material like titanium dioxide. The advantage of treating surfaces is that would not be difficult to reverse. Spewing material into the atmosphere is an entirely different matter.

By Ben Kravitz, Assistant Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University and Tyler Felgenhauer, Research Scientist in Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University. Originally published at The Conversation

The historic Paris climate agreement started a mantra from developing countries: “1.5 to stay alive.” It refers to the international aim to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.8 Fahrenheit) compared with preindustrial times. But the world will lgeikely pass that threshold within a decade, and global warming is showing little sign of slowing.

The world is already facing natural disasters of epic proportions as temperatures rise. Heat records are routinely broken. Wildfire seasons are more extreme. Hurricane strength is increasing. Sea level rise is slowly submerging small island nations and coastal areas.

The only known method able to quickly arrest this temperature rise is climate engineering. (It’s sometimes called geoengineering, sunlight reduction methods or solar climate intervention.) This is a set of proposed actions to deliberately alter the climate.

These actions include mimicking the cooling effects of large volcanic eruptions by putting large amounts of reflective particles in the atmosphere, or making low clouds over the ocean brighter. Both strategies would reflect a small amount of sunlight back to space to cool the planet.

There are many unanswered questions, however, about the effects of deliberately altering the climate, and there is no consensus about whether it is even a good idea to find out.

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Potential climate engineering techniques. Chelsea Thompson NOAACIRES

One of the largest concerns for many countries when it comes to climate change is national security. That doesn’t just mean wars. Risks to food, energy and water supplies are national security issues, as is climate-induced migration.

Could climate engineering help reduce the national security risks of climate change, or would it make things worse? Answering that question is not simple, but researchers who study climate change and national security like we do have some idea of the risks ahead.

The Massive Problem of Climate Change

To understand what climate engineering might look like in the future, let’s first talk about why a country might want to try it.

Since the industrial revolution, humans have put about 1.74 trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, largely by burning fossil fuels. That carbon dioxide traps heat, warming the planet.

One of the most important things we can do is to stop putting carbon into the atmosphere. But that won’t make the situation better quickly, because carbon stays in the atmosphere for centuries. Reducing emissions will just keep things from getting worse.

(Chart at link.)

Countries could pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and lock it away, a process called carbon dioxide removal. Right now, carbon dioxide removal projects, including growing trees and direct air capture devices, pull about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere per year.

However, humans are currently putting over 37 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere annually through fossil fuel use and industry. As long as the amount added is larger than the amount removed, droughts, floods, hurricanes, heat waves and sea level rise, among numerous other consequences of climate change, will keep getting worse.

It may take a long time to get to “net-zero” emissions, the point at which humans aren’t increasing greenhouse gasconcentrations in the atmosphere. Climate engineering might help in the interim.

Who Might Try Climate Engineering and How?

Various government research arms are already gaming out scenarios, looking at who might decide to carry out climate engineering and how.

Climate engineering is expected to be cheap relative to the cost of ending greenhouse gas emissions. But it would still cost billions of dollars and take years to develop and build a fleet of airplanes to carry megatons of reflective particles into the stratosphere each year. Any billionaire considering such a venture would run out of money quickly, despite what science fiction might suggest.

However, a single country or coalition of countries witnessing the harms of climate change could make a cost and geopolitical calculation and decide to begin climate engineering on its own.

This is the so-called “free driver” problem, meaning that one country of at least medium wealth could unilaterally affect the world’s climate.

For example, countries with increasingly dangerous heat waves may want to cause cooling, or countries that depend on monsoon precipitation may want to restore some dependability that climate change has disrupted. Australia is currently exploring the feasibility of rapidly cooling the Great Barrier Reef to prevent its demise.

Creating Risks for Neighbors Raises Conflict Alarm

The climate doesn’t respect national borders. So, a climate engineering project in one country is likely to affect temperature and rainfall in neighboring countries. That could be good or bad for crops, water supplies and flood risk. It could also have widespread unintended consequences.

Some studies show that a moderate amount of climate engineering would likely have widespread benefits compared with climate change. But not every country would be affected in the same way.

Once climate engineering is deployed, countries may be more likely to blame climate engineering for extreme events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts, regardless of the evidence.

Climate engineering may spark conflicts among countries, leading to sanctions and demands for compensation. Climate change can leave the poorest regions most vulnerable to harm, and climate engineering should not exacerbate that harm. Some countries would benefit from climate engineering and thus be more resilient to geopolitical strife, and some would be harmed and thus left more vulnerable.



Is geoengineering a risk worth taking?
While small experiments have been carried out, nobody has conducted large-scale climate engineering yet. That means that a lot of information about its effects relies on climate models. But while these models are excellent tools for studying the climate system, they’re not good at answering questions about geopolitics and conflict. On top of that, the physical effects of climate engineering depend on who is doing it and what they’re doing.

What’s Next?

For now, there are more questions about climate engineering than answers. It’s hard to say whether climate engineering would create more conflict, or if it could defuse international tensions by reducing climate change.

But international decisions on climate engineering are likely coming soon. At the United Nations Environment Assembly in March 2024, African countries called for a moratorium on climate engineering, urging all precaution. Other nations, including the United States, pressed for a formal scientific group to study the risks and benefits before making any decisions.

Climate engineering could be part of an equitable solution to climate change. But it also carries risks. Put simply, climate engineering is a technology that can’t be ignored, but more research is needed so policymakers can make informed decisions.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04 ... pared.html

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Climate Justice = Holistic Transformation, Not Tinkering Around the Edges
APRIL 4, 2024

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Nicaraguan Delegation Head Valdrack Jaentschke speaks at COP28 in Dubai. Photo: Nicaragua Solidarity Campaign.

By Helen Yuill – Mar 21, 2024

‘The climate crisis has many dimensions: social, political, economic, environmental, moral, ethical, and ideological. The way out of the crisis must address the root cause: the endless, limitless, mindless accumulation and concentration of capital on a planet with finite resources,’ Valdrak Jaentschke, head of the Nicaragua delegation, said in his speech at the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) in Dubai. In turn, climate justice must be multi-dimensional recognising that climate justice is an integral part of social, political, environmental, and ethical justice.

In a blaze of triumphant celebrations, the Paris Agreement (COP21) was adopted on 12 December 2015. It entered into force on 4 November 2016. The overarching goal was to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

However, the Nicaraguan delegation led by the late Dr Paul Oquist, refused to sign it, let alone celebrate, given the gaping hole between the immensity of the crisis and the lack of ambition of developed countries. According to the calculations of Dr Oquist, actual commitments would at best ‘take the world to more like three degrees over pre-industrial levels.’

Dr Oquist went on to criticise the lack of transparency and narrowness of scope of a process that failed to acknowledge the facts. The Agreement was of such limited ambition, he said, that it merely tinkered around the edges rescuing the governments of the countries that have caused global warming, ‘passing the cost to those least responsible who will die in the largest numbers unable to make good their losses, much less adapt to a change in climate increasing in intensity as the century wears on.’

In short, rather than solve problems, the Agreement postponed them, at best ‘passing a three degree world onto our grandchildren, great grandchildren and great, great grandchildren.’

Fast forward eight years, the crisis has intensified almost to the point of no return across the globe. The demands of UN general secretary Antonio Guterres and millions of others, particularly in the Global South, echoed those of Dr Oquist. ‘End the use of fossil fuels and stop kicking the can down the road,’ urged Guterres at COP28 in Dubai December 2023.

In line with Dr Oquist’s predictions, the International Panel on Climate Change has already stated that even 1.5 degrees above pre-industrialised levels would be unsustainable. ‘Even at this level Small Island States of the Pacific and Caribbean and the lowland areas of Central America would disappear. It’s not a question of if this would happen, it will happen and whole nations will disappear,‘ according to Jaentschke.

Antonio Guterres went on to state, ‘Every year of insufficient action to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius drives us closer to the brink, increasing systemic risks and reducing our resilience against climate catastrophe.’

COP28 ‘typifying the real face of an unequal world’
A small Nicaraguan delegation led by Minister Valdrack Jaentschke were among the nearly 100,000 people who attended COP28 or joined online. It is supposed to be Conference of Parties, meaning countries, and 197 countries registered to attend. But corporate fossil fuel and agribusiness lobbyists were among those embedded in national delegations of countries of the North. Why? To use their clout to ensure that nothing emerged that had any significant impact on their interests.

In a webinar co-ordinated by the Nicaragua Solidarity Coalition, Jaentschke outlined the positions taken by Nicaragua at COP28 arguing that the ‘predatory capitalist model of production and consumption is the main reason we are on the brink of catastrophe. The capitalist assumption of limitless growth is at profound odds with the fact that we live on a planet with finite resources.’

Climate Justice = common but differentiated responsibility for cutting carbon emissions
COP28, after more than a decade of lobbying by countries of the Global South, established the principle that all countries are responsible for emissions but those with the highest level of emissions currently and historically have the greatest responsibilities.

COP28 also signalled ‘a transition away from fossil fuels, the beginning of the end for the fossil fuels era’. This was a critical step forward but as the Nicaraguan delegation and other countries of the Global South highlighted, there must be some level of flexibility not for the major polluters but ‘for developing countries that face capacity questions in terms of the speed at which they are able to transition away from fossil fuels‘.

‘Developed countries are constantly looking for ways of avoiding responsibility; some examples of this are carbon trading and carbon markets to achieve carbon neutrality; this is a big lie,’ Jaentschke said. He went on to state, ‘What we currently have is the dictatorship of capitalist imposition and bullying, greed and belief in their right to control the world.’



Mitigation and adaptation: the UN Green Climate Fund (GFC)
Developed countries have, in theory, pledged to provide US$100 billion per year to the UN Green Climate Fund (GFC). In turn, developing countries, can present applications for projects to mitigate and/or adapt to the climate crisis. However, the amount actually delivered by the UN Green Climate Fund of US$13.5 billion to date indicates how irresponsibly inadequate this Fund is in providing resources to enable vulnerable countries to confront ‘humanity’s greater challenge’.

As well as the chasm between the level of the crisis and the level of GFC financing, Jaentschke raised concerns about the complexity of the application process making it inaccessible for many countries. According to the GCF website 243 projects have been approved to date to the value of US$13.5 billion of which Nicaragua has received US$91.2 million for three projects.

Climate justice = climate finance for loss and damage
Progress has proceeded at a snail’s pace on the inclusion of the concept of loss and damage, something that vulnerable countries of the Global South have been demanded for decades. Loss and damage refers to climate finance that acknowledges the impact of irreversible economic and other losses caused by global warming. It includes not only disasters linked to extreme weather, but also slow onset events such as sea level rise, loss of life and livelihoods, migration, biodiversity, and cultural heritage.

However, as with the Climate Green Fund, only a small fraction of the estimated $US400 billion needed for loss and damage compensation annually was actually pledged.

Climate justice = reparations
In addition, many countries of the Global South including Nicaragua, argued not just for financing of immediate loss and damage but also for reparations for climate related impacts of colonialist development, a concept that North America and Europe are at great pains to avoid.

How the climate crisis impacts Nicaragua
Jaentschke explained that Nicaragua, with a population of 6.2 million, is responsible for 0.05% of global emissions. Yet it suffers multiple climate related crises such as extremes of temperature, hurricanes, floods, droughts and erratic seasonal shifts. All of these events take a heavy toll particularly in low lying areas.

The country has to invest US$4 billion annually to mitigate/adapt to climate change; this constitutes 8% of GDP. This calculation takes into account road infrastructure, production, environment, health, energy, water, sanitation, telecommunications, and agriculture.

In addition, Nicaragua is situated on a criss-cross of earthquake fault lines and a chain of volcanoes.

All of this in a small country has an enormous impact in undermining development. But it’s not just a question of finance needed to rebuild but also the psycho social impact.

What is Nicaragua doing to cut its own carbon emissions?
Jaentschke highlighted that everything that the Sandinista government has achieved, how much the country has advanced including on climate justice, is within the framework of independence and self-determination and eradicating poverty.

Nicaragua is playing its part in cutting emissions according to its means. An example of this is the transition to renewable energy from 25% to 75% since 2007.This consists of a diverse matrix of solar, geothermal, wind, and biomass.

A message from Nicaragua to campaigners in countries of the North:

• The debate and pressure needs to accelerate in countries of the North, focusing on transformation rather than tinkering around the edges.

• Climate justice is a moral, ideological and ethical question that must be placed in the wider context of social justice.

• Building global networks, coalitions, and alliances, is essential to raising awareness of what is happening, who is responsible, and actions to take.

• Civil society organisations in developed countries are key. As the UN Secretary General Guterres has stated, rhetoric and actions must address the causes and must be about transformation – the age of tinkering and kicking the can down the road for future generations is over. In short, we must end the myth that we can continue to live as we always have on a planet with limited resources.

https://orinocotribune.com/climate-just ... the-edges/
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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Sun Apr 07, 2024 2:06 pm

Greenhouse gas emissions spiked again in 2023
April 5, 2024
Atmospheric CO2 is now more than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels

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Levels of the three most important human-caused greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide – continued their steady climb during 2023, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

While the rise in the three heat-trapping gases recorded in air samples in 2023 was not quite as high as the record jumps observed in recent years, they were in line with the steep increases observed during the past decade.

The global surface concentration of CO2, averaged across all 12 months of 2023, was 419.3 parts per million (ppm), an increase of 2.8 ppm during the year. This was the 12th consecutive year CO2 increased by more than 2 ppm, extending the highest sustained rate of CO2 increases during the 65-year monitoring record. Three consecutive years of CO2 growth of 2 ppm or more had not been seen in NOAA’s monitoring records prior to 2014. Atmospheric CO2 is now more than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels.

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The 2023 increase is the third-largest in the past decade, likely a result of an ongoing increase of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, coupled with increased fire emissions possibly as a result of the transition from La Nina to El Nino.

Atmospheric methane, less abundant than CO2 but more potent at trapping heat in the atmosphere, rose to an average of 1922.6 parts per billion (ppb). The 2023 methane increase over 2022 was 10.9 ppb, lower than the record growth rates seen in 2020 (15.2 ppb), 2021(18 ppb) and 2022 (13.2 ppb), but still the 5th highest since renewed methane growth started in 2007. Methane levels in the atmosphere are now more than 160% higher than their pre-industrial level.

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In 2023, levels of nitrous oxide, the third-most significant human-caused greenhouse gas, climbed by 1 ppb to 336.7 ppb. The two years of highest growth since 2000 occurred in 2020 (1.3 ppb) and 2021 (1.3 ppb). Increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide during recent decades are mainly from use of nitrogen fertilizer and manure from the expansion and intensification of agriculture. Nitrous oxide concentrations are 25% higher than the pre-industrial level of 270 ppb.

By far the most important contributor to climate change is CO2 , which is primarily emitted by burning of fossil fuels. Human-caused CO2 pollution increased from 10.9 billion tons per year in the 1960s – which is when the measurements at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii began – to about 36.6 billion tons per year in 2023, setting a new record.

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere today is comparable to where it was around 4.3 million years ago during the mid-Pliocene epoch, when sea level was about 75 feet higher than today, the average temperature was 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than in pre-industrial times, and large forests occupied areas of the Arctic that are now tundra.

About half of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to date have been absorbed at the Earth’s surface, divided roughly equally between oceans and land ecosystems, including grasslands and forests. The CO2 absorbed by the world’s oceans contributes to ocean acidification, which is causing a fundamental change in the chemistry of the ocean, with impacts to marine life and the people who depend on them. The oceans have also absorbed an estimated 90% of the excess heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases.

(Adapted from materials provided by NOAA, April 6, 2024)

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2024/0 ... b-in-2023/

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Forget eco-modernism
Originally published: Verso Books on April 2. 2024 by Kai Heron (more by Verso Books) | (Posted Apr 05, 2024)

This is an edited version of an essay that originally appeared in Spanish in Jacobin Latin America.

For some years now eco-socialist debate has been locked into orbit around two sharply contrasting perspectives: degrowth and left eco-modernism. The former, represented by Jason Hickel, Giorgos Kallis, Stefania Barca, and others, claims that the growth-based paradigm–capital’s endless material and energetic throughputs, the use of gross domestic product (GDP) as the measure of a healthy society, and an ideology of progress determined in accordance with capital’s priorities–is a barrier to a post-capitalist future.

To disentangle our collective reproduction from capital, radical versions of degrowth have called for reductions in material and energetic throughputs in the imperial core, ecological and climate reparations, technology transfers to support a global green transition, global developmental convergence, and reductions in personal consumption for heavy consumers. These features are combined with a call for the expansion of green industry and energy, common ownership of the means of production, reduced working weeks, and democratic planning.

This vision for degrowth requires revolutionary transformation in how we live our lives. Rather than mediating the pursuit of human and non-human needs through the profit motive, degrowth focuses on the need for democratically planned production to directly deliver what everyone and everything needs to survive and flourish. All of this, degrowthers argue, is not just desirable but essential to provide a secure ecological niche for human and non-human life. As Kohei Saito puts it in Slow Down: How Degrowth Communism Can Save the Earth, it’s degrowth or barbarism.

Left eco-modernism on the other hand is usually represented by Matthew Huber, Leigh Phillips, and proponents of a growth-based Green New Deal such as Robert Pollin. For left eco-modernists–as opposed to reactionary eco-modernists, or capitalists–degrowth is both unnecessary and politically poisonous. It’s unnecessary because technological advances in hydrogen fuel, carbon capture and storage, nuclear energy, and renewable energy systems means that a high-consumption lifestyle for all is possible providing capitalism is abolished and workers take control of the means of production. It’s politically poisonous because, as Cale Brooks writes in Damage Magazine, degrowth is a ’politics of less’ that cannot rally support among workers who are already struggling to make ends meet.

For left eco-modernists, the climate crisis is irresolvable under capitalism not because of ‘growth’ but because the law of value dictates investment decisions. If something isn’t profitable, it isn’t pursued. Under socialism, all kinds of technologies and ecological projects that are currently off the table would become possible. The high fixed-capital costs of nuclear power, for example, deters investment by private capital, but a workers’ state freed from the profit motive could invest the time and labour needed to make mass nuclear energy a reality and drive down emissions.

The debate between degrowth and left eco-modernism has been instructive on several fronts. It raises important questions about the kind of technologies we would like to see in a socialist future: should or shouldn’t we have nuclear power, for instance? For degrowth’s proponents, nuclear presupposes a particular division of labour that may not be desirable in a post-capitalist future, requires large amounts of water for cooling which may place stress on limited reserves on a warming planet, and produces long-lasting nuclear waste. Yet for left eco-modernists the fact that it does not contribute to global heating means it is a ‘clean’ fuel source that should be considered in a wider energy mix.

Exchanges between left eco-modernists and degrowthers have also prompted questions about who might be the subject of revolutionary struggles to come. As Huber and Phillips say, a ‘politics of less’ is unlikely to win many proponents among the imperial core’s working classes when standards of living are everywhere in decline. The degrowth response is that such a position doesn’t propose a politics of less per se, but rather a qualitatively different form of life, a politics of more richness and diversity many of the proposals for which have broad scientific and popular support. The high consumption lifestyles of many workers in the core are also said to be impossible to rollout to global working class within socio-ecological limits and are based–at least in part–on the past and present exploitation of the Global South’s lands, seas, and labour. Left eco-modernists reply by denying that value drains from the periphery to the core of the capitalist world system are significant and that non-trivial ecological limits necessitate reductions in material and energetic throughputs.

An Exhausted Debate on an Exhausted Earth
The dialogue between degrowthers and left eco-modernists has clarified the political stakes of what it means to struggle for a green transition on an exhausted earth. It is evident that the differences between degrowth and left eco-modernism are real, substantive, and irreconcilable, that the two outlooks present distinct post-capitalist visions based on opposed analyses of the political subject that might secure a post-capitalist transition, how they might secure it, and upon what technological basis. But for all this, the debate has become increasingly unedifying.

Part of the problem is that the left eco-modernists have consistently misinterpreted degrowth as a homogenous political perspective and subsequently missed some of the intricacies and weaknesses of degrowth. Degrowth’s proponents are united by the idea that ‘growthism’ or the ‘growth-based paradigm’ is a barrier to human and non-human flourishing, but beyond this there are many disagreements about how to bring about a more sustainable social system and what that system would look like. Proposals range from degrowth anarchism, to eco-socialist degrowth, to degrowth policy wonkery, and even degrowth business models. To treat these very different political horizons as one is to miss something important about the breadth of degrowth’s influence and appeal across the political spectrum, but also its lack of innate political vision. Simply put, degrowth is not a politics, it’s an umbrella term for a series of socio-ecological propositions that have been fused onto a diversity of political perspectives, resulting in very different ideas about what degrowth means.

One of the most promising fusions is the combination of degrowth with eco-socialism explored in the work of Michael Löwy, Kohei Saito, Gareth Dale, Stefania Barca, John Bellamy Foster, and others. Whereas many non-Marxist proponents of degrowth limit their critique of capitalism to merely a critique of ‘growth’–a blunt weapon that conflates growth’s numerous denotations–Marxist degrowth draws on the far sharper critical instruments of historical materialism including exploitation, surplus-value, commodity fetishism, dependency, and social reproduction. And while many non-Marxist proponents of degrowth have overlooked the importance of class struggle and the site of production to socio-ecological transformation, Marxist degrowthers emphasise the need for class struggle and transformations in what is produced, how, and by whom. On top of this, work by Jason Hickel, Mariano Féliz and others has drawn degrowth into proximity with anti-imperialist and Third World Marxist thought, potentially opening movements in the core to repertoires of struggle, avenues of action, and acts of solidarity with struggles from the Global South.

While disagreements inevitably persist among Marxist degrowthers, and while proponents tend to overstate the novelty of degrowth’s contributions to international socialist thought, the fusion of degrowth and Marxism is arguably one of the most exciting intellectual developments on the imperial core’s left.

Yet according to left eco-modernism, any engagement with degrowth marks a radical departure from Marxism and from the interests of the working-class. For Huber, insofar as degrowth has gained popularity, it is among the ‘professional managerial class’ whose ‘contempt for the working (and consuming) masses’ and whose psychological turmoil about their ‘complicity in consumer society’ finds its clearest expression in degrowth. For left eco-modernists, what’s needed is a return to class politics of the ‘classical Marxist’ variety. ‘There is no need to add any “eco-“ prefix to Marxism to explain our predicament’, Huber and Phillips argue, because ‘classical Marxism’s explanation and concomitant prescription for correction are already sufficient.’

This argument would be persuasive if left eco-modernism were offering an anti-imperialist and ecologically literate Marxist politics, but this is not the case. In their recent review of Kohei Saito’s work, Huber and Phillips present their clearest summation of left eco-modernist politics so far and in the process demonstrate that the perspective is better described as a social chauvinist deviation from Marxism, a worrying reactionary tendency platformed by ostensibly left-wing outlets, that could have a damaging influence on trade union and social movement activity in the core.

There are at least three areas where Huber and Phillips’ article reveals left eco-modernism’s reactionary character: its rejection of the existence of value transfers and uneven ecological exchange, its vulgarized interpretation of Marx’s analysis of capital, and its claim that left environmentalist recognition of socio-ecological limits is a brand of neo-Malthusianism. These political and theoretical commitments converge to support a narrowly nationalist, ecologically illiterate, vision of socialist transition which intentionally or not finds common ground with ascendent ‘national conservative’ thought in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Value Transfers
One of left eco-modernism’s defining features is a denial of the existence of value transfers and uneven ecological exchange from the periphery to the core of the world system. In their recent review, Huber and Phillips cite Charles Post’s 2011 article A Critique of the Theory of the ‘Labour Aristocracy’ to claim that the idea of value transfers has been ‘long discredited’. Yet Post’s article is by no means a decisive critique of value transfers or uneven ecological exchange, and its conclusions are at the very least questionable. Zak Cope refuted Post’s empirical and conceptual evidence more than a decade ago, while numerous works have since been published showing the past and present significance of value transfers and uneven ecological exchange, even as the material standard of living in the imperial core continues to decline.

It is also revealing that in their rebuttal of value transfers neither Huber and Phillips, nor Post, engage with Third World and anti-imperialist Marxist thought, which while by no means homogenous on this or any issue has compellingly shown the import of value transfers and uneven ecological exchange both historically and in the present day. Important overlooked references include Amiya Bagchi, Utsa and Prabhat Patnaik, Ali Kadri, Anuouar Abdel-Malek, Walter Rodney, Samir Amin, Ruy Marini, Claudio Katz, and Intan Suwandi.

Value transfers and uneven ecological exchange have to be denied by left eco-modernism. To accept that workers in the core might benefit from the proceeds of capitalism’s global division of labour–whether through wages, consumer goods, raw material transfers, infrastructure, health care, and so on–is for them to muddy the waters about working class interests in the core and working class entanglement within imperialist and neo-colonial systems of accumulation. In the left eco-modernist imaginary the worker must be a pure, abstract, exploited totem, a repository for their revolutionary hopes. In this imaginary–and it is an imaginary–the working class cannot be a global, complex, living and differentiated class of actually existing people. It is inconceivable that though they are exploited themselves, through their differentiated integration into capital’s circuits of accumulation, workers in the imperial core may also participate in the realization of value generated through the exploitation, domination, and even death, of workers elsewhere in the core and in the periphery. The working class, in other words, is internally differentiated along gendered, racial, and national lines, and the immediate interests of various sectors of the global working class can and do come into opposition with one another.

Grasping this is an important condition for international solidarity and the formation of ecological politics on the right terms. When workers in the imperial core consume foodstuffs produced through widespread drought-inducing deforestation, for example, or when they’re employed to build weapons used to commit genocide on Palestinians, solidarity requires a degree of material ‘sacrifice’ on the part of workers in the imperial core. As Lenin once put it:

internationalism on the part of oppressors or ‘great’ nations, as they are called (though they are great only in their violence, only great as bullies), must consist not only in the observance of the formal equality of nations but even in an inequality of the oppressor nation, the great nation, that must make up for the inequality which obtains in actual practice. Anybody who does not understand this has not grasped the real proletarian attitude to the national question.

Making up for this inequality through acts of working class internationalist solidarity, and by aligning struggles in the core with those of workers in the periphery, creates the subjective and material conditions for a social revolution om which workers the world over can find their common interest in dismantling capital. As Marx argued, this is the only kind of revolution that can produce “world historical, empirically universal individuals” where there are otherwise only “local ones.”

Through its denial of value transfers and under-theorisation of how imperialism is reproduced through the everyday lives of workers in the core, eco-modernism refuses this difficult political terrain. Huber and Phillips suggest it is ‘slander that workers in the developed world are imperialists whose everyday lives are a primary driver of “ecological breakdown”’ This is putting words into the mouths of degrowth Marxists. No proponent of the synthesis between Marxism and degrowth has claimed that the lives of workers in the imperial core are a primary driver of our compounding ecological crises. But to say that workers in the imperial core can contribute through their work or consumption should be beyond dispute. To deny this is to blind oneself to the reality of historical capitalism.

The Fetter Thesis
Left eco-modernism’s vision of a socialist transition depends on a vulgarized reading of what G.A Cohen calls Marx’s fetter thesis. This is the idea that capital establishes the material and social basis for socialism because at a certain point in capitalism’s development its relations of production become a fetter on the forces of production, which is to say that private property and the private appropriation of socially produced wealth becomes a barrier to human flourishing. To secure further development of production and human emancipation, the relations of production must therefore be ‘burst asunder’, as Marx put it, by the associated producers, ushering in a socialist non-class-based society. The fetter thesis is what lies behind left eco-modernism’s support for nuclear energy, conventional agriculture, and the idea of widespread sustainable air travel.

Revealingly, Huber and Phillips say that the fetter thesis is ‘central to the theory of historical materialism’. To make their point, the co-authors turn to the global response to COVID-19, in which the production and distribution of lifesaving personal protective equipment and vaccinations were indeed fettered by the profit motive. Huber and Phillips choose this example to assert the fetter thesis’ universal applicability. From here, they claim that Saito’s apparent rejection of the fetter thesis is part of his strategy of ‘cherry-picking from the Marxist canon’ to support preconceived political conclusions.

On this, Huber and Phillips should heed their own words. Marx did indeed write about how capital can fetter production and human development, but Marx and others in the Marxist tradition have also repeatedly observed how capital actively ruins the conditions for a post-capitalist, eco-socialist future through what Ali Kadri has recently called the waste of workers, fixed capital, and ecologies.

In a speech delivered to London’s German Workers’ Educational Society in 1867, Marx spoke about the conditions of struggle in Ireland, explicitly linking Ireland’s fight for decolonization to ecology. British colonial rule, Marx argued, had deindustrialized Ireland, transforming it into an export-orientated agricultural economy organized around the needs of its colonizer. The result was the destitution of the Irish worker and peasantry, most notably in the potato famine, and what Marx called the ‘exhaustion of the soils’, which was less and less able to sustain arable production. These findings would be repeated by numerous anti-colonial Marxist thinkers including Walter Rodney, José Mariátegui, Amílcar Cabral, and Thomas Sankara.

In Capital Volume One, published the same year Marx delivered his speech on the Irish Question in London, Marx generalizes these observations. What István Mészáros calls capital’s ‘metabolic control’, is once again said to impoverish what Marx this time calls the ‘original source of all wealth–the soil and the worker.’ With regards to the working class, Marx writes that ‘in agriculture as in manufacturing, the transformation of production under the sway of capital, means, at the same time, the martyrdom of the producer, the instrument of labour becomes the means of enslaving, exploiting, and impoverishing the labourer…In modern agriculture, as in the urban industries, the increased productiveness and quantity of the labour set in motion are bought at the cost of laying waste and consuming by disease labour-power itself.’

As for the soil, Marx remarks that ‘all progress in capitalistic agriculture is a progress in the art, not only of robbing the labourer, but of robbing the soil; all progress in increasing the fertility of the soil for a given time, is a progress towards ruining the lasting sources of that fertility…Capitalist production, therefore, develops technology, and the combining together of various processes into a social whole, only by sapping the original sources of all wealth—the soil and the worker.’

Capitalism, in other words, leads to the unevenly distributed ruination of the worker and non-human nature. This amounts to a refutation of Huber and Phillips’ one-sided interpretation of the fetter thesis. By stripping workers of their vitality, freedom, and self-determination, and by undermining the ecological conditions of production, capitalism’s metabolic control is undermining rather than laying the groundwork for communism. It is not that the forces and relations of production are coming into contradiction–though this can happen–it is that the totality of capitalist social relations also come into contradiction with, and ruin, or cannibalize its social and ecological basis.

In his 1920 text Left-Wing Communism: An Infantile Disorder, Lenin carries Marx’s idea forward:

Capitalism could have been declared–and with full justice–to be ‘historically obsolete’ many decades ago, but that does not at all remove the need for a very long and persistent struggle on the basis of capitalism.

Samir Amin would later reconfirm Lenin’s conclusion in his study Obsolescent Capitalism, which argued for capital’s essentially ruinous nature in colonies and neo-colonies. As would Anouar Abdel-Malek in his study of the place of war in global accumulation, István Mészáros in his writing on waste and capital’s under-utilization, and Ali Kadri in his study of global imperialism.

What emerges from these writings is an appreciation of capital’s violent dialectics of production and destruction. In place of left eco-modernist just-so stories about how every technological advance is a step towards socialism, we are thrown into an uncertain and uncomfortable reality: capital develops “forces of destruction” as Marx puts it at least as much as it develops forces of production. In fact, in today’s world, wrecked, ruined, and ravaged by capital’s metabolic control, capitalism arguably destroys and renders destitute far more than it produces or emancipates.

In short, capital is a killing machine. The longer it lasts, the more it kills, maims, and deprives, the more it robs the global working classes of the conditions they need to create a viable post-capitalist future. This is the urgent challenge we face, and it is one that a one-sided interpretation of the fetter thesis and left eco-modernism conceals through techno-optimist fantasies.

Anti-Ecologism
Left eco-modernism’s commitment to the fetter thesis also produces a peculiar kind of ecological illiteracy. The basic eco-modernist idea is that once capital’s metabolic control over our exchanges with non-human nature have been put to an end, all ecological boundaries and limits can be overcome through sheer ingenuity. As Huber and Phillips explain with reference to global greenhouse gas emissions: ‘When we fully shift to clean energy sources such as nuclear, wind, and solar, that climate-related limit on energy use will have been transcended. The only true, permanently insuperable limits we face are the laws of physics and logic.’

The first problem with this argument is that Huber and Phillips provide zero evidence to support it. It is simply taken on faith that the levels of energy consumption used in the imperial core can be expanded to the rest of the world without the necessary extraction of resources—lithium, uranium, silica, silver, bauxite, copper–or disposal of waste in various ecological and energetic sinks encountering socio-ecological constraints. In a move worthy of Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, Huber and Phillips briefly allude to space mining and space derived energy sources as a kind of get-out-of-jail-free card for the issue of resource limits.

Maybe space mining is possible. Maybe we don’t need to worry about disrupted nutrient cycles and eutrophication, or how conventional food systems contribute to biodiversity loss, or the socio-ecological perils of nuclear energy production. But, as Ajay Singh Chaudhary argues, left eco-modernism must provide evidence. So far it has offered only blind faith and techno-optimism. Unfortunately, as Chaudhary writes, where Huber and Phillips do provide evidence in support of nuclear energy, conventional agriculture, and their other preferred technologies, academic literature is selectively chosen and complicating socio-ecological factors in the technology’s viability are frequently overlooked.

All of this would be bad enough, but Huber and Phillips take the extra step of accusing anyone who takes the idea of socio-ecological limits or thresholds seriously of being neo-Malthusian, the same term used to describe a racist eugenicist like Paul Ehrlich, the infamous author of The Population Bomb. To do this, they stretch the definition of neo-Malthusianism beyond breaking point.

Huber and Phillips are correct to say that numerous supposedly ecological limits are in fact socially created limits imposed by the prevailing mode of production. The racist, colonial idea that we need to reduce the human population to avoid climate catastrophe, for example, naturalizes the capitalist mode of production. In truth, it is capital’s organization of human and non-human nature, not the number of people alive today, that is destroying the planet. Even so, as Huber and Phillips themselves acknowledge with respect to the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, there are real biophysical limits that must be respected to maintain a habitable planet for human and non-human life as we know it.

When Huber and Phillips say that recognizing the existence of such socio-ecological limits is ‘a species of neo-Malthusianism’, they give the term an entirely new meaning. The term neo-Malthusian is usually reserved for those who have replaced Thomas Malthus’ ideas of fixed limits on human population numbers with the belief that economic growth and technology can stave off demographic challenges. For neo-Malthusians, in other words, human population increases are still a threat, but the crisis can be averted through technological advancement and increased material throughputs. Degrowth Marxism is neither populationist nor does it argue that technological advances are the way out of the ecological crisis.

Ironically, Neo-Malthusianism properly defined shares far more common ground with Huber and Phillips than it does with degrowth. Though neither Huber nor Phillips share neo-Malthusianism’s concern with rising population numbers, they do participate in the neo-Malthusian tendency to fetishize a very particular configuration of techno-fixes — conventional agriculture and nuclear energy in particular — which are not aligned with the class interests of many of the world’s working classes and which require downplaying the socio-ecologically devastating effects of both industries.

Left Eco-Modernism: A Social Chauvinist Deviation
Left eco-modernism’s lack of engagement with Third World Marxism, its denial of value transfers and uneven ecological exchange, its vulgarization of Marx’s analysis of capital, and its anti-ecologism converge in a narrowly nationalist theorisation of socialist transition that comes dangerously close to a programme of nationalist renewal rather than an international socialism.

In his book Climate Change as Class War Huber claims to present a politics for ‘the majority’, by which he means the world’s working classes, but in an early footnote he clarifies that the book’s analysis and political proposals will be circumscribed within the boundaries of the United States, the working class inhabitants of which form a minority of the diverse and divided global working class that is the proper subject of Marxist analysis.

At the end of their article, with their view similarly limited to the political core, Huber and Phillips make a case for unionisation among industrial workers. Good quality well-paid union jobs in green industry are, they suggest, the path to socialism. Huber and Phillips fail to situate this narrowly economistic theory of class struggle within Marx and Marxism’ broader vision of social transformation through social revolution. Nor do they place it within an internationalist project of anti-imperialist solidarity, such as that we’ve seen among the imperial core’s trade unions and social movements in response to Israel’s genocidal campaign in Palestine. Because of this, Phillips and Huber’s article effectively ends with a class-aware proposal for national renewal that is not at all dissimilar to certain kinds of national conservative thought developing in the U.S. and elsewhere. There is a certain cross-over here with those like the conservative co-founder of Compact, Sohrab Ahmari, whose latest book Tryanny Inc., as Jodi Dean has written, calls for renewed working class trade unionism, but unlike Huber and Phillips does so in the name of saving capitalism from itself. Dean ends her review with a plea for the left to avoid the temptation of courting the national conservative right in a bid to amplify its reach and impact. Huber and Phillips’ left eco-modernism appears to ignore this warning.

Huber and Phillips have repeatedly claimed degrowth is a middle-class project, but the class affiliations of left eco-modernism has rarely been scrutinised. Michael Lieven argues that Huber’s work is aimed less at class struggle than at a class compromise between a primarily white U.S. working class and capital that is ‘liberal–and not even liberal’. Indeed, Huber and Phillips have repeatedly published in outlets including Unherd and Compact, whose editorial lines combine appeals to a nationally circumscribed working class with socially conservative, often anti-trans, racist, and Zionist commentary. In their contributions to these outlets, both authors accuse the Left of rejecting the working class as a political subject and of moralising about working class consumption in the imperial core. This line of argument resonates nicely with national conservative forces who hope to build a new class compromise between certain sections of the imperial core’s working class and its capitalist classes.

Lenin once said that social chauvinists insist ‘upon the “right” of one or other of the “great” nations to rob the colonies and oppress other peoples.’ This is the upshot of a politics, such as the left eco-modernist version of class struggle, that denies the presence of value transfers and uneven ecological exchange, that downplays the socio-ecological consequences of continued or expanding material and energetic throughputs, and that takes a national working class, rather than the global working class, as its political subject. This, very simply, is a politics that has no place on the left.

Eco-Communist Strategy
Writing in 1995, with an eye to the world’s burgeoning ecological crises, Mészáros warned that in the future ‘the challenge facing socialists will present itself as the necessity to put the pieces together and make a workable social metabolic order out of the ruins of the old.’ This is still our challenge nearly 30 years later, and the ruins are piling up. Last year was the first time average annual temperatures exceeded the milestone of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, life sustaining biodiversity has declined 69% in 50 years, ocean temperatures are quite literally off the charts, microplastics are now a constituent part of every raincloud, toxic forever chemicals are present in every new born baby, life expectancy is starting to reverse in the imperial core, imperial wars and genocides are waged with near-impunity, the far-right is in resurgence, and global hunger and dispossession are on the rise. Capital’s metabolic control over socio-ecological interactions, in other words, is ruining workers and ecosystems alike. Rather than fettering our collective ingenuity, it is killing workers everywhere and robbing them of the conditions needed to build a world where humans and non-humans alike can flourish.

On a planet wrecked and ruined by capital, further debate with left eco-modernism is a distraction. What’s needed more than ever is a deep reflection on political strategy. How can those of us living in the imperial core leverage our position to win an eco-communist future for all? How can we support and amplify existing socialist and anti-imperialist projects and struggles in the periphery? What does a green transition for the core look like in practice if it doesn’t exploit the periphery’s lands, seas, and labour? And what does it mean to fight for a better future on a wounded world? These are the urgent questions of our time. They are questions left eco-modernism has no answer to because it denies the fundamentals of the problem. To move forward together, then, we must forget eco-modernism.

https://mronline.org/2024/04/05/forget-eco-modernism/

To be sure, eco-modernism ain't nothing but sf-libertarianism and should be disregarded. However, to preach de-growth in a world where most humans are mired in the poverty engendered by capitalism is bound to be a non-starter for most nations of the global South and very unhelpful. Revolution first should be the cause of every ecologist, environmentalist, socialist and sane human being. Then, after just and necessary redistribution we'll see where we stand.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Sat Apr 20, 2024 3:00 pm

Scientists Warn Gulf Stream Slowdown Could Begin as Early as 2025
Posted on April 17, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. While you were busy paying attention to uncheery news on the Israel-Gaza-and-now-Iran front, uncheery news is moving forward on other fronts. For quite some time, climate change mavens have warned that enough glacial ice melt would slow down the Atlantic Gulf Stream, due to lower saline levels. An article in LiveScience predicted the Gulf Stream could reach an inflection point in 2100. The article below moves the possible onset up considerably.

The LiveScience piece gives a good short treatment of the mechanism:

The Gulf Stream (also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC) is essentially a “giant conveyor belt” along the East coast of the United States, study co-author Stefan Rahmstorf, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, said in a statement.

The current begins near the Florida Peninsula, carrying warm surface water north toward Newfoundland before meandering east across the Atlantic. By the time it reaches the North Atlantic, that warm surface water becomes cooler, saltier and denser, sinking into the deep sea before being driven south again, where the cycle repeats. According to Rahmstorf, the current moves more than 5.2 billion gallons (20 million cubic meters) of water per second, or “almost 100 times the Amazon [River] flow.”

This wet conveyor belt has myriad climate impacts on both sides of the Atlantic, keeping temperatures in Florida and the U.K. mild, influencing the path and strength of cyclones and helping to regulate sea levels. Since direct measurements began in 2004, however, scientists have detected a troubling pattern: AMOC currents are getting slower and weaker.

To better contextualize this slowdown in their new study — published Feb. 25 in the journal Nature Geoscience — the researchers attempted to extend the history of the AMOC’s flow by nearly 2,000 years. Because no direct measurements of the flow are available before the last two decades, the team turned to proxy data: information from environmental archives, such as tree rings and ice cores, that can help put the AMOC in a long-term perspective.

The team used 11 different proxies — including temperature records, Atlantic silt data, underwater sediment cores and deep-sea coral population records — to create a comprehensive picture of how warm the AMOC was and how fast it was moving over the past 1,600 years.

“We looked for example at the size of the grains in ocean sediment cores, as a faster current can transport larger grains,” Caesar said. “We also looked at the species compositions of corals, because different types of corals prefer different water temperatures, and the Gulf Stream system influences water temperatures in the North Atlantic.”

Together, these proxies told a unified story about the current’s sudden decline, beginning with a small slowdown in about 1850, at the end of the Little Ice Age (a period of global cooling that spanned from roughly 1300 to 1850). A second, more dramatic slowdown began in the mid-20th century; since then, currents have weakened by an additional 15%, the team found.

“We found consistent evidence that the system over the last decades has been weaker than any time before in the last 1,600 years,” Caesar said.

Now to the main event:

By Kurt Cobb, a freelance writer and communications consultant who writes frequently about energy and environment. His work has also appeared in The Christian Science Monitor, Resilience, Le Monde Diplomatique, TalkMarkets, Investing.com, Business Insider and many other places. He is the author of an oil-themed novel entitled Prelude and has a widely followed blog called Resource Insights. He is currently a fellow of the Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions. Originally published at OilPrice

*India’s heatwave criteria do not consider humidity, leading to an underestimation of heat danger.
*Deadly wet-bulb temperatures, where perspiration does not evaporate, are occurring more frequently.
*Potential slowdown or collapse of the Gulf Stream could plunge Northern Europe into a colder climate.

There were two pieces of recent news which highlight why what was once most often referred to as global warming is now called climate change. Yes, the globe is heating up. But effects vary depending on where you live for various reasons.

First, a report from India calls out problems with the criteria used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue a heatwave warning: The criteria do NOT consider humidity, only temperature. Anyone who lives in a hot climate or any climate that includes hot summer days knows that humidity can make a huge difference in whether one can stay cool in hot weather. It turns out that the IMD criteria fail to recognize that temperatures below what is considered a heatwave may be just as dangerous to human health when humidity is high and even be downright life-threatening. In short, India is already experiencing conditions that at times are at or near the limits of human suvivability.

The vast majority of humans—even with an unlimited supply of water—would likely die after a few hours in conditions that exceed 95 degrees in very high humidity, what is called wet-bulb temperatures because they represent a wet towel around the bulb of a thermometer. This web-bulb temperature is supposed to mimic the way that humans cool themselves through perspiration. At very high humidity, it becomes hard to get perspiration on the skin to evaporate which is what allows for cooling of the body. It’s why a handheld or electric fan helps cool the body because it speeds up evaporation.

Scientists have previously believed such extreme conditions currently occur very infrequently anywhere on Earth. Recent studies suggest that 40 years ago such extremes occurred once or twice a year somewhere on the planet. Now models suggest they are occurring 25 to 30 times per year. Without dramatic reductions in greenhouse gases, these extremes will become increasingly common. “Such conditions are unbearable without technology like air conditioning and make outdoor labor near impossible,” according to the ScienceNews article linked above.

A second story this week warns temperatures might go in the opposite direction in one area of the globe as a direct result of the warming of the Greenland ice sheet, increased rainfall attributed to climate change, and dropping salinity in the tropical waters where the Gulf Stream arises.

The Gulf Stream, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), moves heat from the tropics, along the U.S. coast, then across the Atlantic to the British Isles and turns back and north to Iceland and Greenland. There, having lost much of its heat, it turns downward into the Atlantic depths to between 6,000 to 9,000 feet and begins a journey back to the equator and along South America.

Just how much heat does the Gulf Stream move? Some 50 times the energy used by all of human civilization. This explains why Northern Europe—a branch of the AMOC flows toward Scandanavia as well—and Iceland are much warmer than their high latitudes would suggest. If the energy transfer were to slow dramatically or stop, it would almost certainly plunge these areas into a much colder climate regime, one for which they are not currently prepared.

The basic idea was illustrated in an exaggerated way in the film “The Day After Tomorrow”. The speed of the transformation from moderate climate into frozen wasteland takes one week in the film. It should be concerning, however, that past collapses of the AMOC have taken place in a decade.

Scientists have been tracking the AMOC since 2004 and believe it is slowing. When researchers discovered in their calculations and modeling that the AMOC might start its next collapse as early as 2025, they couldn’t believe it. They rechecked the results, and the conclusion was confirmed. Their model suggests that the current could begin collapsing anywhere from 2025 to 2095. (Some scientists pointed out the considerable uncertainties in the model, a legitimate criticism. My response: Shall those in the path of potential destruction simply wait and do nothing until the model can be better confirmed? If so, how long should they wait?)

The range cited above is not that wide even from a human perspective. And, it suggests once again that the catastrophic effects of climate change aren’t merely going to be someone else’s problem in the distant future. In the coming decades humans could be migrating away from catastrophes which either make life too hot to be bearable…or too cold—both due to climate change.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04 ... -2025.html

******

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The Death of Paris ‘15
Originally published: Dissident Voice on April 15, 2024 by Robert Hunziker (more by Dissident Voice) | (Posted Apr 18, 2024)

The Paris climate agreement of 2015 set the standards for how nation/states must approach the net zero target year 2050 by reducing greenhouse gas emissions in stages, starting with major reductions by 2030.

Paris ’15 is dead.

According to a new report by Global Energy Monitor of San Francisco, at least 20B barrels of oil equivalent has been discovered since the International Energy Agency statement of fact in 2021 that no new oil, gas, or coal development should proceed if the world is to reach net zero by 2050.

Nevertheless, as of today, fossil fuel producers worldwide plan on quadrupling output from newly approved projects by 2030, diametrically opposite what was agreed upon at Paris ’15. Effectively, the much-heralded savior Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 is torn to shreds.

Disregard for the agreement is even worse than first blush would indicate, to wit:

Last year, at least 20 oil and gas fields were readied and approved for extraction following discovery, sanctioning the removal of 8bn barrels of oil equivalent. By the end of this decade, the report found, the fossil-fuel industry aims to sanction nearly four times this amount—31bn barrels of oil equivalent—across 64 additional new oil and gas fields.

— “Surge of New U.S.-Led Oil and Gas Activity Threatens to Wreck Paris Climate Goals”, The Guardian, March 2024.


Fossil fuel exploration and production is on a roll, on a high, indomitably conquering every warning by climate scientists of past decades. The big oil companies, in concert with the major developed nations, are flipping the bird at Paris ’15. It’s a worthless scrap of paper. They’re drilling and increasing production 4-fold, period!

The United States leads the way. It has produced more crude oil than any country has in history for the past six years running. Nobody is outproducing America. Making matters even more poignantly difficult to swallow and pouring salt into the wound, the leader of Saudi Aramco at a recent conference in Texas said the world should “abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas.”

Meanwhile, it was recently reported that the senior producers are “way off track” on emissions goals that, from the start, were faux commitments with a wink and a grin. According to Carbon Tracker, production plans for the 25 largest oil and gas companies do not come close to aligning with the central goal of Paris ’15, which is now lifeless.

Carbon Tracker’s Paris Alignment Scorecard reads like a lunatic gang of young druggies flunking out of high school. Letter grades run from A to H with each oil company failing. The highest ranking was a lowly D. And every company plans on expansion of oil and gas production, near term. Making matters even worse, according to Carbon Tracker, oil and gas companies are reneging on prior climate commitments. No big surprise there.

All of this is now coming out into the open in the aftermath of COP28 (UN climate change conference) held in Dubai last year, an event designed and led by fossil fuel interests. How could the UN and associated scientists be so fooled, publicly ridiculed, allowing the fossil fuel industry to hijack their most important UN climate change conference?

Now that the oil and gas industry has hijacked UN climate change conferences, it should come as no surprise that COP29 in 2024 will be held in the Azerbaijani capital city Baku. Azerbaijan has been an oil producer for over 100 years as one of the world’s top producers with fossil fuels responsible for over 90% of the country’s exports, providing two-thirds of its state budget.

According to analysts at Rystad Energy, sourced by Global Witness, Azerbaijan plans to increase fossil fuel production by one-third over the next 10 years. (The Guardian) Meanwhile, in somewhat of a mixed message, the country claims to be an alternative energy leader in the world and plans on going to 30% renewables by 2030, which is standard PR by oil companies nowadays.

One wonders what this means for activists and climate scientists and UN climate conferences. Will the fossil fuel industry continue to dominate UN climate conferences? But, even more significantly, what does this mean for planetary global warming?

A recent article in Space.com deals with the issue: “How The Runaway Greenhouse Gas Effect Can Destroy a Planet’s Habitability–Including Earth’s”, Space, com, December 19, 2023.

Here’s the storyline:

Using advanced computer simulations, scientists have shown how easily a runaway greenhouse effect can rapidly transform a habitable planet into a hellish world inhospitable to life.

Here’s the hard part:

The team of astronomers from the University of Geneva (UNIGE) and CNRS laboratories of Paris and Bordeaux saw that after initial stages of a planet’s climate transformation, the planet’s atmosphere, structure, and cloud coverage get significantly altered, such that a difficult-to-halt runaway effect starts to commence. Alarmingly, this process could be initiated here on Earth with just a slight change in solar luminosity or by a global average temperature rise of just a few tens of degrees. Even those minor changes could lead to our planet becoming totally inhospitable.

The brutal result is what’s called “a hellscape.” But no timeline is mentioned. It is just one of those things that might happen sometime in the future, hopefully, nobody lives to see it, or conversely, nobody lives.

One thing is probably clear, by continuing to pump fossil fuels, enriching the atmosphere with one of the most powerful greenhouse gases, CO2 constituting 76% of all greenhouse gases, the odds and timing of the runaway greenhouse gas effect get closer by the day, and now, thanks to a new “let’s drill the hell out of it” attitude, faster than anybody realizes.

https://mronline.org/2024/04/18/151742/

It was bullshit from Day 1. As long as the capitalists rule it couldn't be otherwise.
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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Mon Apr 22, 2024 3:06 pm

Capitalism’s New Age of Plagues, Part 4
April 19, 2024
Agribusiness assaults on tropical forests are driving the emergence of new diseases and epidemics

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In 2023 alone, 3.7 million hectares of primary tropical forest was destroyed — the equivalent of 10 soccer fields every minute of every day.

Part 4 of a multi-part article on the causes and implications of global capitalism’s descent into an era when infectious diseases are ever more common. My views are subject to continuing debate and testing in practice. I look forward to your comments, criticisms, and corrections.

[Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3] [Part 4]

by Ian Angus

In 1998, pigs in a farm in northern Malaysia developed a respiratory disease, marked by very loud coughing. Some of the animals had no other symptoms, others had fevers and muscle spasms, but most recovered. Then the previously unknown disease jumped to farmworkers and became more virulent — 265 people developed severe encephalitis, and 105 of those died, a death rate comparable to Ebola.

Medical investigators found that the farm where the epidemic started kept some 30,000 pigs in open-air pens near mango trees. Fruit bats from the deep forests of nearby Borneo had recently migrated to those trees when their natural habitats were bulldozed to make way for palm plantations, and the pigs ate partially eaten fruit that the bats dropped. The bats’ saliva carried a then-unknown virus — later named Nipah after a nearby village — that was harmless to them but made pigs sick and killed people. The Malaysian outbreak was contained by killing over a million pigs, but, having escaped its forest origin, the virus moved on: Nipah is now endemic in Bangladesh and parts of India, where yearly outbreaks still kill 40% to 75% of those infected. There is no vaccine and no cure.

+ + + + +

The forest clearing that destroyed the bats’ natural habitat was not a new or isolated development. Indeed, as Karl Marx wrote, “the development of civilization and industry in general has always shown itself so active in the destruction of forests that everything that has been done for their conservation and production is completely insignificant in comparison.”[1]

After the last ice age and before the invention of agriculture, forests covered roughly six billion hectares of Earth’s habitable land surface. Today the forested area is just four billion hectares, a 33 percent decline in about ten thousand years. But over half of the decline occurred after 1900, and most of that has occurred since 1950.[2]

In Earth System science, both the Great Acceleration graphs and the Planetary Boundaries project include loss of tropical forests as key developments in the global shift from relatively stable Holocene conditions to the more volatile Anthropocene in the mid-twentieth century.[3] The 2023 update to the Planetary Boundaries framework concluded that land system change entered the danger zone in about 1988, and has “since been transgressed into a zone of increasing risk of systemic disruption.”[4]

In his history of deforestation, Michael Williams describes the period since 1945 as the Great Onslaught.

“The cataclysmic events of World War II altered the world’s forests more surely than any “end of the century” of about 50 years before. But it was not the five years of conflict, devastating as they were, that caused deforestation; rather, it was the aftermath of change that they unleashed that was rapid, far-reaching, and caused a disruption of global biomes. The nature and intensity of change reached worrisome levels of pace, magnitude, and environmental significance compared to anything that had gone before.”[5]

It is sometimes claimed that deforestation is caused by high birth rates in tropical countries — that too many poor people are carving small farms out of tropical forests, to feed their families. In fact, while state-sponsored colonization of peasant farming was an important factor in forest removal in Latin America and southeast Asia until about 1980, “the majority of global deforestation today is driven by multinational corporations, including Cargill, JBS and Mafrig, as well as their creditors BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase and HSBC.”[6] Agribusiness giants clear immense areas to produce monocrop commodities for global markets. Just four products — beef, soy, palm oil, and wood — are responsible for over 70% of twenty-first century deforestation[7] and the cleared areas are being replaced not by family farms but by massive ranches and plantations.

Environmentalists have justifiably focused attention on the links between deforestation and climate change — it’s estimated that land use change is responsible for 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. That is, of course, a critically important issue, but as socialist epidemiologist Rob Wallace points out, we also need to understand and challenge the role of investors based in London, New York, and Hong Kong who are turning tropical forests into breeding grounds for global pandemics.

“Capital is spearheading land grabs into the last of primary forest and smallholder farmland worldwide. These investments drive the deforestation and development leading to disease emergence. The functional diversity and complexity these huge tracts of land represent are being streamlined in such a way that previously boxed-in pathogens are spilling over into local livestock and human communities.”[8]

The vast pool of biodiversity in tropical forests includes uncounted viruses that have inhabited and adapted to “reservoir species,” through millions of years of evolution. The massive disruption and degradation of forests increases contact between humans and their domestic animals on one hand, and wild animals on the other — contacts that create new opportunities for viruses and bacteria to infect previously unknown hosts. As Andreas Malm writes, deforestation is a major driver of zoonotic spillover and emerging infectious diseases.

“That strange new diseases should emerge from the wild is, in a manner of speaking, logical: beyond human dominion is where unknown pathogens reside. But that realm could be left in some peace. If it weren’t for weren’t for the economy operated by humans constantly assailing the wild, encroaching upon it, tearing into it, chopping it up, destroying it with a zeal bordering on lust for extermination, these things wouldn’t happen ….

“Deforestation is an engine not only of biodiversity loss, but of zoonotic spillover itself. When roads are cut through tropical forests, patches cleared, outposts placed deeper in the interior, humans come in contact with all the teeming life forms hitherto left on their own. People raid or occupy spaces where pathogens dwell in the greatest plenitude. The two parties stage their most frequent encounters along the edges of fragmented forests, where the contents of the woods can slip out and meet the extremities of the human economy; and, as it happens, generalists like mice and mosquitos, with a knack for serving as ‘bridge hosts,’ tend to flourish in those zones….

“The hotspots of spillover are the hotspots of deforestation.”[9]

“As a result,” Wallace writes, “forest disease dynamics, the pathogens’ primeval sources, are no longer constrained to the hinterlands alone. Their associated epidemiologies have themselves turned relational, felt across time and space. A SARS can suddenly find itself spilling over into humans in the big city only a few days out of its bat cave.”[10]

In addition to creating new opportunities for virus spillover, deforestation provides expanded habitats for vectors — the mosquitoes and other insects that carry pathogens from infected animals to humans. A report published by the United Nations Environment Program, the World Health Organization and the Convention on Biological Diversity warns:

“Changes to habitats, including through altered species composition (influenced by conditions that may more favorably support carriers of disease, as seen with malaria-harboring vectors in cleared areas of the Amazon) and/or abundance in an ecosystem (and thus potential pathogen dispersion and prevalence), and the establishment of new opportunities for disease transmission in a given habitat, have major implications for health. Human-mediated changes to landscapes are accompanied by human encroachment into formerly pristine habitats, often also accompanied by the introduction of domestic animal species, enabling new types of interactions among species and thus novel pathogen transmission opportunities.”[11]

Heavy use of pesticides sharply reduced the incidence of insect-carried diseases in the last half of the twentieth century, but they have since returned with a vengeance. The most deadly, malaria, kills between one and three million people every year, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. The insects that carry it and other pathogens find attractive breeding grounds in recently deforested areas.

It’s sometimes claimed that palm tree plantations should be viewed as effective replacements for original forests, but scientific studies show both that “mosquito vectors of human disease are disproportionately represented in deforested habitats,” and that there is “a positive association between the number of vector-borne disease outbreaks and the increase in land areas converted to oil palm plantations.”[12]

As this shows, forests are not just trees — they are immensely complex ecosystems whose ecological functions cannot be duplicated simply by introducing other, more profitable, trees. One of those functions is limiting the spread of vector-borne diseases and viral spillover. As Roderick Wallace and his associates argue, to be truly sustainable, policies and actions must prioritize “preserving what the forest does, as opposed to what it is.”[13]

[To be continued]

References


[1] Karl Marx, Capital: A Critique of Political Economy. Vol. 2, trans. David Fernbach, vol. 2, The Pelican Marx Library (London: Penguin Books in association with New Left Review, 1985), 322.

[2] Omri Wallach and Aboulazm, Zach, “Visualizing the World’s Loss of Forests Since the Ice-Age,” Visual Capitalist, April 1, 2022.

[3] Ian Angus, Facing the Anthropocene: Fossil Capitalism and the Crisis of the Earth System (New York: Monthly Review Press, 2016), 44–45, 71–77.

[4] Katherine Richardson et al., “Earth beyond Six of Nine Planetary Boundaries,” Science Advances 9, no. 37 (September 15, 2023).

[5] Michael Williams, Deforesting the Earth: From Prehistory to Global Crisis: An Abridgment (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2006), 395.

[6] April Fisher, “Deforestation and Monoculture Farming Spread COVID-19 and Other Diseases,” Truthout, May 12, 2020.

[7] Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, “Cutting down Forests: What Are the Drivers of Deforestation?,” Our World in Data, March 18, 2024.

[8] Robert G. Wallace, Dead Epidemiologists: On the Origins of COVID-19 (New York: Monthly Review Press, 2020), 30–31.

[9] Andreas Malm, Corona, Climate, Chronic Emergency: War Communism in the Twenty-First Century (London New York: Verso, 2020), 35, 42, 43.

[10] Rob Wallace et al., “COVID-19 and Circuits of Capital,” Monthly Review 72, no. 1 (May 1, 2020): 1–15.

[11] World Health Organization and Convention on Biological Diversity, Connecting Global Priorities: Biodiversity and Human Health. S State of Knowledge Review (Geneva: World Health Organization, 2015), 39.

[12] Nathan D. Burkett-Cadena and Amy Y. Vittor, “Deforestation and Vector-Borne Disease: Forest Conversion Favors Important Mosquito Vectors of Human Pathogens,” Basic and Applied Ecology 26 (February 2018): 101–10; Serge Morand and Claire Lajaunie, “Outbreaks of Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases Are Associated With Changes in Forest Cover and Oil Palm Expansion at Global Scale,” Frontiers in Veterinary Science 8 (March 24, 2021): 661063.

[13] Rodrick Wallace et al., Clear-Cutting Disease Control: Capital-Led Deforestation, Public Health Austerity, and Vector-Borne Infection (Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018), 55.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2024/0 ... es-part-4/

What are you eating?
April 22, 2024

The ubiquitous chemicals in our food are making us sick

Chris van Tulleken
ULTRA-PROCESSED PEOPLE
The Science Behind Food That Isn’t Food
WW Norton & Company

reviewed by Coral Wynter

Ultra-Processed People is a frightening book about the industrial chemicals and processed components that make up the ultra-processed food (UPF) we buy in supermarkets.

UPF is causing a global epidemic of obesity, type II diabetes, depression and many other early-onset diseases. Worse still, UPF causes mass obesity in children in developed and undeveloped countries.

Food manufacturing industries use the cheapest ingredients then add sugar, salt and other chemicals to make their products addictive. UPF is constructed from the cheapest version of these essential molecules, fats, proteins and carbohydrates. UPF is why many of us are overweight and depressed into the bargain.

UPF is hard to define. It is packaged snacks, soft drinks, instant noodles and so-called “ready meals.” Researchers also include foods such as packaged baked goods, ice-cream, sugary cereal, chips, lollies and biscuits. One researcher said, “It’s not food. It’s an industrially produced edible substance.”

Disturbingly, there is little or no government regulation over UPFs.

Sugars, stabilizers, emulsifiers

A typical supermarket-bought multigrain bread loaf contains wheat flour, water and seed mix (13%), wheat protein, yeast, salt, soya flour, malted barley flour, granulated sugar, barley flour, preservatives (E282 calcium propionate), emulsifier E472e (mono- and di-acetyl tartaric acid esters of mono and diglycerides of fatty acids), caramelized sugar, barley fiber and a flour treatment agent called ascorbic acid. The manufacturers start with low-protein flour and add separate wheat protein later, as it saves on time and cost.

Symbolizing the problem, the Australian edition of van Tulleken’s book has an embossed picture of a loaf of bread in its plastic wrapping and tie on the cover.

I was horrified to later read that the same manufacturers make a product van Tulleken calls “sour-faux,” with up to 15 ingredients, including palm oil and commercial yeast. Sourdough bread should just have four ingredients: flour, wild yeast, salt and water.

For those who enjoy a morning cup of coffee with a snack, van Tulleken investigates the ingredients in a British “Carb Killa Chocolate Chip Salted Caramel Bar”.

It’s constructed from modified carbohydrates, maltitol (a modified sugar made from a modified starch, which is sweeter than table sugar), protein isolates from milk and beef, calcium caseinate, whey protein isolate, hydrolyzed beef gelatin and industrially processed palm fat, all bound together with emulsifiers. Exposure to low doses of common food emulsifiers, carboxymethylcellulose and polysorbate-80, has been shown to induce inflammation by disrupting intestinal microbiota.

One British store-bought pistachio ice cream studied in the book contains fresh milk, sugar, pistachio paste, soy protein, soy lecithin, coconut oil, sunflower oil, chlorophyll, natural flavors (including lemon), dextrose, fresh double cream, glucose, skim milk powder, stabilizers (locust bean gum, guar gum, carrageenan), emulsifier (mono and di-diglycerides of fatty acids) and Maldon sea salt.

Stabilizers, emulsifiers, gums, lecithin, glucose and oils are all the hallmarks of UPF.

Because ice cream is so cold in the freezer, it has no scent when the wrapper is ripped open to encourage consumption. So companies will add a caramel scent in the ribbing of the wrapper. You might recognize the names of some of the gums listed on ice-cream wrappers: guar gum, locust bean gum, alginate, carrageenan and xanthan gum. The latter comes from a slime that bacteria produce to be able to cling to surfaces. This may put you off ever eating ice-cream again.

The individual ingredients of UPF are harmful, but it is in combination that they do the most harm.

The oils are refined, bleached, deodorized, hydrogenated and inter-esterified (a chemical process). The protein may be hydrolyzed and the starch modified. Combined with additives, they are assembled using molding, extrusion and pressure changes. Ingredient lists from pizzas to snacks all seem the same.

Another feature of UPF is that it is soft; there is no fiber, each mouthful is a “slick of wet, starchy glob.” The softness is due to the method of construction. Industrially modified plants and mechanically recovered meats are pulverized, ground, milled and extruded, until all fibrous texture is destroyed. This is so the remainder can be reassembled into dinosaurs for kids or crisps for adults.

Humans have a natural body composition that is fattier than most land mammals. Elephants carry around 8.5% body fat, apes have less than 10%, but women have about 21% body fat and men have 14%. Obesity was rare for human populations living before 1879, states van Tulleken, even if food was abundant.

Hormones and hunger

A hormone, leptin, produced in the fat tissue and detected in the hypothalamus in the brain is involved in long-term control of weight. Before we start to eat, the stomach secretes a hormone called ghrelin which activates the hypothalamus to tell us to start eating. However, a system for short-term control of weight involves the liver, pancreas, stomach, small and large intestine, the microbiome and fat tissue, as all detect sugars, fat and protein. They send and receive signals to the brain after eating. It is this complex, autonomous, signaling system that is bypassed when eating UPF.

UPF is affecting our ability to self-regulate our body weight, our network of hormones and neurons that has evolved over 300 million years from the first eating organism, Dickinsonia costata.

It is not clear how UPF avoids these complex feed-back mechanisms. Eating is far less of a choice than it appears. Van Tulleken has chapters on exactly why obesity is not due to sugar, why is it not due to lack of exercise, and why it is not due to poor will-power.

The neuroscience is persuasive. Evidence from brain-scans show that energy-dense, hyperpalatable, ultra-processed foods can stimulate changes in the same brain circuits affected by addictive drugs. Evidence from brain MRIs show that the appetite hormones are totally deranged. What is happening to children’s brains due to consumption of UPF in terms of social behavior and IQ is not known.

We may be eating more food to compensate for becoming increasingly deficient in micronutrients. Ultra-processing reduces micronutrients to the point that modern diets lead to malnutrition, even as they cause obesity. Micronutrients are more efficient and beneficial when embedded in food, rather than supplements. Phytochemicals, Vitamin E or A or other fat-soluble vitamins, haem iron or methyl folate are all more available for absorption in their natural form.

UPFs make up as much as 60% of the calories of the average diet in Britain and the United States. Dr Melissa Lane and her colleagues published an article on UPFs in the Australian diet, which they estimated to be about 40% (ABC interview March 1).

UPF is almost universally cheaper, quicker and lasts longer (due to the addition of preservatives) than food prepared at home from basic ingredients. It is so ubiquitous, resulting in such high consumption due to our busy life styles.

Depression, diabetes, obesity

Two studies carried out in Mediterranean countries reported that higher intakes of UPF were associated with an increased risk of depressive symptoms and depression over 5 and 10 years of follow-up, respectively. Another report found increased depression in a study of public servants in London over 11 years.

Brazilian nutritionist Carlos Monteiro was the first to sound the alarm about UPFs in 1977, when he noticed that Brazilians appeared to be buying less sugar, yet obesity and Type II diabetes were going up.

Monteiro went on to develop the NOVA system, where food is divided into four groups. Group 1 is unprocessed or minimally processed food found in nature (i.e. meat, fruit and vegetables, flour and pasta). Group 2 is processed cooking ingredients, traditional food, such as oils, lard, butter, sugar, salt, vinegar, honey and starches. Group 3 is processed food, ready-made mixtures of groups 1 and 2, such as tins of beans, nuts, smoked meat, canned fish, fruit in syrup and freshly made bread. Group 4 is the “ultra-processed food,” defined as “formulations of ingredients, mostly of exclusive industrial use made by a series of industrial processes, many requiring sophisticated equipment and technology.”

A well-known Canadian nutrition scientist, Kevin Hall, from the US National Institutes of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, put Monteiro’s theory to the test. The paper was published in the respected journal Cell Metabolism (2019, V30, p67). He did indeed find that UPF caused excess calorie intake and weight gain in a randomized, controlled trial with no limits on food intake by the participants.

The solution to UPFs cannot be left up to the food industry. It is up to government in collaboration with the medical profession, public health scientists, nutritionists and nurses, to rid our cupboards of UPF.

Lane says, as a first step, UPF dense foods must be removed from school and hospitals and we should aim is for an overall reduction of UPF food in the diet to less than 10% of energy intake. However, it will cost households more in time and money to replace cheaper and easier UPFs with better options.

The book contains more horror stories of the collusion between government bodies and the food industry under the pretense of fighting obesity and destruction of the environment.

It is an easy read if you can withstand knowing what you are really eating. We are Ultra Processed People in more ways than food.

https://climateandcapitalism.com/2024/0 ... ou-eating/

*******

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Great barrier reef, queensland, Australia

Coral catastrophe signals our own undoing
Originally published: Pearls and Irritations on April 19, 2024 by Julian Cribb (more by Pearls and Irritations) (Posted Apr 20, 2024)

Corals are the traffic light that warns of planet-wide catastrophe ahead. And the light is glaring red.

Like the wildfires searing the world’s forests and grasslands, like the vanishing of insects, birds and large mammals the corals are another unambiguous signal that humans are riding a runaway train to our own ultimate destruction. Yet our fossil-fuelled governments and corporations heap coals into the engine, keep down their heads and deliberately ignore onrushing disaster.

That the sixth Great Death of corals is now upon us is plain from the evidence piling up around the world. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Coral Reef Watch has warned the world is now in its fourth global cycle of bleaching since 1998—an ominous crescendo.

Coral bleaching has been reported in reefs extending across Florida, the Caribbean, Brazil, the south Pacific, the Middle East, west Indonesia and East Africa. Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is undergoing its fifth mass bleaching event in eight years with over 80% of the reef hit by bleaching-level heat stress in 2024, the highest ever seen.

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NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch uses satellites to monitor ocean temperatures on the world’s reefs

The data spell disaster for humanity in both the short and the long term. Coral reefs are estimated to generate around US$9.8 trillion in economic activity annually from fishing, tourism and ecosystem services. They support around 500 million livelihoods in 100 countries around the planet and supply a significant portion of the world’s food. Their loss would be the economic equivalent of losing three world car industries. Yet most governments and corporates are accelerating it.

Additionally, coral reefs provide barrier protection for many heavily-populated coastlines which will be exposed to major flooding from storms, tsunamis and sea level rise as the reefs break up. Corals also absorb a significant amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide—and their loss eliminates an important brake on global heating, projecting the Earth more rapidly into a Hothouse state where large animals and humans will struggle to survive.

As in the previous five events, the loss of corals heralds extinction on a global scale.

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Corals first emerged around 542 million years ago in the oceans of the Precambrian era. Over the next half billion years they underwent five major extinction events, followed by long lags of 5 to 20 million years before they managed to evolve anew. Ancient species, such as the once-plentiful rugose corals, were wiped out in the Great Death of the Permian era, and remain lost forever.

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Fossil corals from past extinctions. Image Supplied: Oped/Corals/cribb/apr24

Corals are not a single creature, but a partnership between the coral polyps and their symbiotic zooxanthellae, from which they obtain most of their nutrient energy. When this partnership is severed—by hot, toxic, anoxic or acidic sea water or disease—the coral expel the algae and blanch. Unless the algae rapidly reoccupy them, the coral polyps starve and die and the whole colony perishes, leaving only the whitened skeletons of ‘hard corals’ in the graveyards photographed by wondering tourists, blind to the tragedy unfolding before their very eyes.

Coral colonies also sustain a host of other life, including fishes, molluscs and sea plants, creating living marvels such as the Great Barrier Reef. Their loss is thus accompanied by the loss of thousands of other species, and travels all the way up the food chain reaching even birds and land animals, including humans.

It is the very fragility of the bond between the coral polyps and their zooxanthellae that renders them such a vital signaller of thermal and chemical disaster in the oceans—and thus, on the planet as a whole. They are not ‘just corals’, as so many scientifically-illiterate politicians, media and ‘opinion influencers’ seem to regard them. They are the premonition of global catastrophe.

The warning was made clear in 2008 by Australian coral reef scientist Dr Charlie Veron in his book “A Reef In Time: The Great Barrier Reef from Beginning to End” in which he charted the rise and likely fate of the world’s largest coral reef system over the past 25 million years. Veron is appalled at the failure of successive government to act. “Public uncertainty, in combination with pressure from groups with vested interests, has prolonged government inaction… and this delay is already having far-reaching consequences. The Great Barrier Reef will be among the first in a long line of dominoes to fall,” he said.

The last two major coral extinctions, the K/T (65my ago, when the dinosaurs disappeared) and the Toarcian (180my ago) took out over 90 per cent of coral species.

Scientists are concerned that, thanks to human agency, chemically polluting both atmosphere and oceans, a sixth has now been triggered. One that will directly affect our own chances of survival on a habitable planet.

Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a pioneer of coral research who was among the first to link bleaching to global heating, told The Guardian:

It’s a shock. We clearly have to prevent governments from investing in fossil fuels, or we won’t have a chance in hell [to save reefs].

And Professor Terry Hughes has waged a one-man campaign on Twitter (or X) condemning successive Australian governments for their disinformation about the state of the reef, while they consistently approve new fossil energy developments that will speed its demise.

These informed voices go unheeded as the crisis unfolds. The corals are telling us our time on Earth may well be up, if we do not heed the warnings they provide. They pose an even more profound question: are human still intelligent enough to survive… or not?

https://mronline.org/2024/04/20/coral-c ... n-undoing/

******

War & Genocide on Earth Day
April 21, 2024

U.S. military aggression and imperial ambitions leave a trail of natural destruction — all under the guise of national security, writes Melissa Garriga.

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Damaged buildings in Gaza, Dec. 6, 2023. (Tasnim News Agency, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0)

By Melissa Garriga
On Earth Day Monday, prepare for the annual spectacle of U.S. lawmakers donning their environmentalist hats, waxing poetic about their love for the planet while disregarding the devastation their actions wreak.

The harsh reality is that alongside their hollow pledges lies a trail of destruction fueled by military aggression and imperial ambitions, all under the guise of national security.

Take Gaza, for instance. Its once-fertile farmland now lies barren, its water sources poisoned by conflict and neglect. The grim statistics speak volumes: 97 percent of Gaza’s water is unfit for human consumption, leading to a staggering 26 percent of illnesses, particularly among vulnerable children.

Israel’s decades-long colonial settler project and ethnic cleansing of Palestine have caused irrefutable damage to the land, air and water, consequently contributing to the climate crisis.

In fact, in the first two months of the current genocide campaign in Gaza, Israel’s murderous bombardment, which has killed nearly 35,000 people, has also generated more planet-warming emissions than the annual carbon footprint of the world’s top 20 climate-vulnerable nations.

Yet, despite these dire circumstances, U.S. lawmakers persist in funneling weapons to Israel, perpetuating a cycle of violence and environmental degradation.

The ripple effects of militarism extend far beyond Gaza’s borders. In Ukraine, the Russia-Ukraine War has left a staggering $56.4 billion environmental bill, with widespread contamination of air, water, and soil. Landmines and unexploded ordnance litter 30 percent of the country, posing long-term risks to both the environment and human health.

The United States’ answer to all this has been to reject diplomacy and fuel a long, protracted war with a seamingling endless supply of weapons and military support. A war that most experts will tell you is not a winnable war. The proxy war the United States is funding not only leaves Ukrainians at risk of never achieving peace but also significantly contributes to the ever-growing climate crisis.

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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, President Joe Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at a press event on continued support for Ukraine in January. (White House, Cameron Smith)

Then, there is the U.S. government’s desire to go to war with China. The U.S. military’s heavy footprint already looms large in the Pacific, and with the war drums now beating harder for war than ever before , the footprint is growing.

With over 200 bases dotting the region, the Pentagon’s voracious energy consumption fuels greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation, from polluted drinking water in Okinawa to severe contamination near military installations in Guam.

Yet, the U.S. government insists that it is China that is its greatest enemy and not the looming threat of climate destruction. The U.S. military’s presence in the Pacific is destroying natural, indigenous ecosystems, favoring the idea of environmental destruction over attempting any form of diplomacy and cooperation with China.

All of this destruction to the environment and acceleration of the climate crisis happens silently under the veil of “national security,” while discussions on how the environmental toll of war is the most significant national security threat are absent in D.C.

While the threat of nuclear annihilation and civilian casualties rightfully dominate headlines, the ecological fallout remains an underreported tragedy.

The Pentagon is the planet’s largest institutional emitter of fossil fuels; its insatiable appetite for conflict exacerbates climate change and threatens ecosystems worldwide. To make matters worse, the U.S. government wants to fund this destruction to the tune of nearly a trillion dollars a year while poor and low-wealth communities worldwide bear the brunt of climate catastrophes with little to no resources to protect themselves.

At the heart of this destructive cycle lies a perverse economic incentive, where war becomes a lucrative business at the expense of both people and the planet. The narrative of gross domestic product growth masks the actual cost of conflict, prioritizing financial profit over genuine progress in education, healthcare, and biodiversity.

Instead of war-economy metrics such as the GDP, we could embrace alternative metrics such as the genuine progress indicator (GPI) that reckon with the actual toll of war on our world.

We can shift from endless growth towards genuine well-being by valuing air quality, food security, and environmental sustainability.

This Earth Day, let us reject the empty rhetoric of environmentalism without action. Let us demand accountability from our lawmakers and insist on an end to the cycle of violence and ecological devastation. By prioritizing peace and sustainability, we can protect our planet and safeguard future generations.

https://consortiumnews.com/2024/04/21/w ... earth-day/


Young Lady, we'll not shift from or to anything until capitalism is de-throned.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Fri Apr 26, 2024 4:31 pm

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Climate march, London 2015. Photo: Alisdaire Hickson / Flickr / cropped from original / CC BY-SA 2.0

Socialist climate struggle for a world worth living in
Originally published: ISA (International Socialist Alternative) on April 19, 2024 by Philipp Chmel (more by ISA (International Socialist Alternative)) | (Posted Apr 25, 2024)

The slogans of this climate strike “#ClimateJusticeNow” and “Fight with us for a world worth living in” reflect a growing understanding that collective struggle is crucial to win a good life for all and that this will only be possible with strong solidarity leaving no one behind.

This climate strike happens in the midst of the ongoing genocidal onslaught in Gaza, brutal wars and conflicts, including in Congo, Yemen, Sudan and Ukraine and against the backdrop of the ever escalating climate crisis. The past 12 months ranked as the planet’s hottest ever recorded, reaching an average of 1.58°C over pre-industrial levels. This is just one of the many climate records that was broken over the last year and is a terrifying harbinger of what is to come if we don’t build a movement strong enough to enforce the necessary change. None of the shades of the capitalist ruling classes–whether “liberal” or rightwing–have anything to offer for the majority of the global population except a plethora of crises–economic, ecological, political, social and more.

A combative, international climate movement of youth, workers, farmers, Indigenous, poor and oppressed people–overcoming through struggle and solidarity the divisions pushed upon us by the ruling class to uphold their broken system–is urgently needed to lay crucial steps to overthrow this deadly capitalist system and replace it with an egalitarian and democratic socialist system.

An international economy in which key sectors are publicly owned and democratically planned by the working class, would rationally plan their use according to the needs of people and the planet. This would allow us to effectively curb global heating while also guaranteeing workers’ rights, and protecting and increasing the living standards of the vast majority of humankind while eliminating the excesses of the super rich.

Widening metabolic rift causes misery and mayhem
The escalating climate and ecological crisis is insurmountable under capitalism as it is a product of the system’s fundamental contradictions, a system built on the private ownership of the means of production, whose core imperative is the accumulation of private profit. Capitalism is rooted in the exploitation of human labor and expropriation (robbery) of nature and will always put the wealth of a tiny minority before the needs of people and the planet; it thereby undermines “the original sources of all wealth–the soil and the worker” as summarized by Marx. He describes this in his theory of the metabolic rift. Ruptures in the material exchange (e.g. resources, waste and greenhouse gas emissions) between nature and society–the social metabolism–did not arise under capitalist relations of production, but were and are intensified and accelerated by them, and cannot be overcome under capitalism.

Over the last decades, the metabolic rift has become so wide that the destructive impacts of the climate and environmental crises on people’s lives have become the new normal. The State of the Global Climate 2023 report recently published by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) states “that records were once again broken, and in some cases smashed, for greenhouse gas levels, surface temperatures, ocean heat and acidification, sea level rise, Antarctic sea ice cover and glacier retreat. Heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones caused misery and mayhem, upending everyday life for millions and inflicting many billions of dollars in economic losses.” Extreme heat is among the most dangerous effects. In 2022, “an estimated 62,000 lives were lost in Europe alone due to extreme heat”. “Heat stress is projected to reduce total working hours worldwide by 2.2 per cent and global GDP by US$2,400 billion in 2030”, according to the ILO.

Whether little or no climate protection, the working class still pays the bill
There are divisions among the ruling classes on how to “manage” the climate crisis, to a degree reflecting the battle between different capital sectors as well as political parties appealing to different voter groups. Some more “farsighted” parts push for limited climate measures and policies that favor for example electrification and expanding renewable energy, often as part of public investments into strategic sectors–like Biden’s Inflation Redaction Act or the European Green Deal presented in December 2019. These measures have also been an attempted ideological “answer” by the ruling class to the 2019 global mass climate movement, which politicized hundreds of thousands of working class and especially young people, to try to limit the disillusionment with the capitalist system.

Despite some limited measures, however, emissions are on the rise and planned fossil fuel extraction up to 2030 is more than double than what would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. This shows yet again that effective climate protection is not possible under capitalism, whose internal contradictions have caused a renewed fossil upsurge turbocharged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Linked with this, oil and gas profits have actually tripled under Biden compared to the first three years under Trump, whose plans to scrap the IRA could add an extra 4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2030, “the equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan, or the combined annual total of the world’s 140 lowest-emitting countries”.

In Europe, the picture is similar. The Green party in Germany has supported the RWE mine expansion in Lützerath in 2023 and the building of Liquid “Natural” Gas terminals, and EU climate measures are increasingly questioned and attacked, especially from the right and far-right. Moreover, in September 2023, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that rules against internal combustion engine cars and the rollout of clean heat for British homes will be pushed back by five years to 2035. In February 2024, 70 CEOs from 20 energy-intensive sectors unveiled the so-called ‘Antwerp Declaration’, “a plan for a European Industrial Deal designed to counter the European Green Deal”. This is an attempt to boost competitiveness of European industry vis-a-vis China and the U.S. and to slow down and counter deindustrialization, which has been the key reason for the 8% drop in emissions (2023 compared to 2022) in the EU.

Where the ruling class is very much in agreement, however, is on the question of who should pay the bill. While billions are handed out to companies for “strategic investments”, pumped into the fossil fuel industry via subsidies (the IMF estimated them at $7 trillion or 7.1% of GDP globally in 2022) and spent on militarization, the working class is facing brutal austerity measures and small farmers and peasants are forced to accept prices for their produce from which they cannot live.

To show the scale of the inequality:
80% of global “carbon dioxide emissions since 2016 can be traced to a group of 57 fossil fuel and cement producers” (nation-states, state-owned firms and investor-owned companies)
The richest 1% emit more carbon emissions than the poorest 66%
There are more billionaires and they are richer than ever before as recently shown by Forbes. Oxfam found that “since 2020, five billion people have become poorer, while the world’s five richest men have more than doubled their fortunes—at a rate of $14 million per hour.”
The anger over extreme inequality has also been at the heart of the ongoing farmers protests across Europe, which were triggered by discussions on cutting diesel subsidies to farmers. A recent article showed that “80% of the EU farming budget goes to roughly 20% of farmers–the biggest and richest” and that the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP), which is presented as a protection for farmers, is actually a key driver behind the decline of small farms. From 2005 to 2020, farms in the EU decreased by nearly 40%, pushing around 5.3 million farmers, mainly from small farms (<5 hectares), out of business. While agribusiness has so far successfully misused the legitimate anger of small farmers and peasants to boost their own profits, as the EU decided to take “the ax to green farming rules” to quell the protests, this does not correspond in any way with the needs of the majority of farmers. Farmers are primarily demanding higher and minimum prices for their produce. A recent study showed that 62% of French farmers actually believe that the ecological transition is a necessity, with 23% even seeing it as an opportunity and only 15% rejecting the ecological transition.

The far-right has also tried to exploit the farmers’ movement and inequality generally, especially with EU elections coming up, by putting up a social facade and attacking climate politics, hypocritically leaning on the measures’ anti-social character. The broader pushback against climate policies has been dubbed “greenlash”, pointing to the parallel with the right-wing backlash against women, LGBTQIA+ and migrant rights in the context of growing polarization, and has been accompanied by significant uptick in state repression.

People Want Action on Climate
Notwithstanding these developments, the climate crisis continues to be a strong concern for the vast majority of the working class internationally. An Ipsos poll surveying over 24,000 people across 31 countries in October 2023 found that “seven in ten people anticipate climate change will have a severe effect in their area within the next ten years” and 71% see through corporate greenwashing tactics, saying businesses “use environmental claims without committing to real change”. Similarly, a study recently published in Nature that surveyed almost 130,000 people across 125 countries found that “89% demand intensified political action” to tackle climate change.

Moreover, while the global climate demonstrations have decreased in size since 2019, it is clear by now that the climate movement generally is here to stay, testament to the deadly threat the climate crisis poses to the majority of humanity. Since 2019, climate groups have been searching and testing out different methods and strategies. Two important trends can be identified: mass direct action against fossil infrastructure and “convergence of struggles” with climate groups taking clear stances and joining demonstrations against oppression–most strikingly in solidarity with Gaza and Palestine, as expressed in Greta Thunberg’s statement “no climate justice on occupied land”, as well as orienting to the trade union and workers’ movement.

Over the last years, groups similar to Ende Gelände, which started 2015 in Germany, have also formed in many other countries, for example Code Red in Belgium or Les Soulèvements de la Terre (The Earth Uprisings Collective) in France. The groups fight for system change, with some explicitly anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist ideas, and use mass direct action against fossil infrastructure. In their programs, the groups combine climate and social demands. The demands include scrapping fossil subsidies, a just transition and well-paid green jobs for workers, affordable public transport and energy, as well as public democratic ownership of the energy sector. The combination of climate and social demands is crucial: a European Investment Bank survey from November 2023 (30,000 people were interviewed across 35 European countries) showed that people’s main worries were the rising cost of living (68%) and climate change (45%).

The most impressive movement against environmentally destructive industry has been seen in Panama. In the largest protest movement in decades, Indigenous people, youth, trade unions and the wider working class started a struggle against a Canadian-owned copper mine in October 2023. After weeks of road blockades, strikes and protests in at least 10 cities, the country’s Supreme Court ruled in November that Panama’s new mining contract with the Canadian company First Quantum was unconstitutional.

Climate and Workers Solidarity
While still on an initial level, it is extremely significant that climate groups in several countries have strengthened links with the trade union and workers movement, reflected in demands, but also concrete actions and campaigns.

In Germany, Fridays for Future and the trade union Verdi have joined forces for the campaign #wirfahrenzusammen (“we ride together”). They demand massive investment in public transport to double its capacity by 2030 and higher wages and better working conditions for workers in the sector. Already in March 2023, public transport workers and climate activists went on strike together for those demands in over 40 cities, and in March this year they organized “a week of strike action culminating in a collective nationwide walkout and climate protest on March 1” that saw protests in all German states except Bavaria, involving 90,000 workers. A similar campaign has recently been initiated in Austria, where parts of the climate movement have linked up with bus drivers and the union Vida for better working conditions.

In the U.S., environmental groups joined striking UAW auto workers on the picket lines in autumn 2023, highlighting the need for a just transition and the Sunrise Movement puts forward the demand for green union jobs.

In Switzerland, the group “Climate Strike Switzerland” takes a clear stance against green capitalism and calls for system change as a requirement to stop the exploitation of people and nature. The group makes clear that “private property makes it impossible to reach climate justice”; calls for the expropriation of German energy corporation RWE and for democratic public ownership of the energy sector; and urged people to join unions and mobilized for the trade union demonstration for higher wages in September 2023 with the slogan: “Up with wages, down with CO2!”. Moreover, the group recently announced that it will support the struggle of former GKN (company for automotive parts) workers against job losses and for the reconversion toward sustainable mobility and renewable energy by becoming a cooperative member.

Initially, the former GKN workers, who have occupied their factory since July 2021, aimed for nationalization under democratic control, but official trade unions did not join their struggle, which significantly weakened their hand. Feminist and climate groups, however, supported them in various ways including with several large demonstrations of up to 25,000, and it is thus no surprise that the former GKN workers will join the climate march in Florence on April 19. Workers from other automotive supply chain companies in crisis will do the same. In Bologna, Marelli workers will join the protests and in Turin, where a climate and labor march has recently taken place, the climate movement has protested side by side with the former FIAT workers.

These examples are very positive and can serve as inspiration for struggles elsewhere. With the electrification of the automotive sector, we will see more and more job cuts (building electric cars generally requires fewer workers) and attacks on workers in the industry. Similar developments can also be seen in the European steel industry. The answer to such attacks must be a united struggle by workers and social movements against job loss and for production conversion towards sustainable production, mobility and renewable energy with the clear demand for nationalization under democratic workers’ control.

A publicly-owned, planned economy with real democratic control by workers in those industries and society as a whole could create millions of well-paid and sustainable jobs and build a new green economy.

This is the only way to ensure that workers’ rights and past gains are protected, as part of a just transition for working people. Workers in fossil industries could be redeployed with no job losses or pay reductions, moving from environmentally damaging production toward projects that benefit society and the planet. In a democratically planned economy, greed, corruption and competition would be replaced by an economic system that is based on the needs of people. This is also a prerequisite to end wars and conflicts and give a real answer to people who are forced to flee from their homes as a result of the climate crises.

https://mronline.org/2024/04/25/sociali ... living-in/

*****

Book Review: “On the Move” Is a Must-Read Account of U.S. Climate Migration
Posted on April 26, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. The press has been reporting on more and more extreme weather events, not just unusual heat but also torrential rains that dramatically flooded Dubai. That’s on top of atypically wet weather that wrecked UK crops. Without giving a catalogue, it’s becoming clear that more and more residences and livelihoods and therefore communities are at risk from climate change.

The Pentagon had the geopolitical impact of climate change on its radar in the early 2000s. One of the early concerns was sea level rises producing mass migration out of particularly vulnerable countries like Bangladesh. But as this article describes, climate migration has already come to the US and is set to increase.

By Jeff Masters. Originally published at Yale Climate Connections



Climate-driven migration has already begun,” writes climate journalist Abrahm Lustgarten in his must-read book, “On the Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America.”

“In the United States,” he continues, “a quiet retreat from the front lines of Western wildfires and Gulf Coast hurricanes is hollowing out small towns. These are the subtle first signals of an epochal slow-motion exodus out of inhospitable places that will, as the climate warms further over the lifetime of today’s children, unfold on a global scale.”

If you’re looking for a book that can help inform your personal choices on how to prepare for the future of climate change in the U.S., Lustgarten’s book is the best one I’ve seen yet. “On the Move” begins with a four-chapter overview of the tremendous pressure climate change is placing on us, using the latest scientific findings combined with interviews with some of the key scientists involved. It describes the shortsighted policies that have encouraged risky development in vulnerable areas, as well as how decades of economic policies have favored some Americans over others, leaving Black and poor communities in the most danger as the climate warms.

The next three chapters follow the emotional arc of Americans being forced to move or potentially forced to move by climate change. Large communities are already beginning to shift, displacing many people, but many others are becoming trapped by poverty, age, or the economic decline of their communities. The final two chapters present the latest research on how many Americans might move and from where: a portrait of “American society transformed.”

What follows below are some of the highlights from “On the Move.”


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Figure 1. The most at-risk counties in the U.S. from climate change if multiple perils are combined (higher numbers are worse). The projections for 2040-2060 under an extreme global warming scenario (RCP 8.5) are based on a 2017 study led by Solomon Hsiang, Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States, with follow-up work by the Rhodium Group. A portion of this table is published in “On the Move,” and a full sortable table for every U.S. county is available in the 2020 article by ProPublica.org, New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States.

Life Is Different Now
The book begins by presenting what life might be like in the U.S. because of the rapid onslaught of forced climate change-induced migration over the next 10 to 20 years. The first chapter, “Life is Different Now,” includes a moving account of how one family’s once-safe home in the California San Francisco Bay Area has been transformed into a dangerous place because of unprecedented wildfires in recent years. Their agonizing decision: Should they stay or should they go?

Throughout the book, Lustgarten, who also lives in a wildfire-prone portion of the Bay Area, describes his angst about experiencing the new climate change reality there: skies turned orange by smoke, the constant tension of being prepared to evacuate, rolling blackouts that ruin perishable food, and increased insurance rates. One chapter ends with his phone conversation with Tulane University’s urban planning and climate migration expert, Jesse Keenan, where Lustgarten asks him:

“Should I be selling my house and getting —”
He cut me off. “Yes!” came his emphatic reply.


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Figure 2. In 2023, Guatemala was once again hit by severe drought. According to the U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, the drought fueled migration, malnutrition, and acute hunger, chiefly among children. (Image credit: UNDRR)

An Eyewitness Account of the Desperation of Central American Climate Migrants
The most powerful chapter of the book tells the story of the author’s visit to Central America to understand international migration to the U.S. He visits desperate farmers who face a new climate where the rains don’t come on time, bringing droughts too fierce to grow the crops they used to be able to. They have no option other than to abandon their homes and seek a better life elsewhere.

Recent research confirms the link between an increase in Central American drought and migration to the U.S. According to a 2023 paper, “Dry growing seasons predicted Central American migration to the U.S. from 2012 to 2018,” “Unusual weather variability and unpredictable seasons has contributed to migration globally. We found 70.7% more emigration to the U.S. when local growing seasons in Central America were recently drier than the historical average since 1901.”

How Water Availability Can Lead to the Slow Abandonment of a Community
Another moving section of the book looks at how climate change can slowly degrade the quality of life in portions of the U.S. where water availability is declining. Lustgarten recounts his visit to the rural Eastern Colorado farming town of Ordway (pop. 1,100). Beginning in the 1920s, water from the Colorado River was diverted to irrigate Ordway, resulting in a financial boom. But as Colorado’s nearby cities grew and the climate grew hotter and drier, water became more scarce and more valuable, resulting in a major move for residents to sell their water rights and leave the farming business. As a result, Ordway suffered a “fast-forward” version of how climate change might affect places with water scarcity in the non-too-distant future. Lustgarten writes how the town has “essentially turned into a desert”:

The water sales made the county and its farmers more dependent than ever on the temperamental rains of the prairies, just as climate change began causing a long-term decline in the state’s overall water supply. After the water sales, thousands of acres of farmland dried up almost overnight. One by one, people shuttered their farms and moved. The dealerships closed; the tractor store went belly-up. Without enough produce to can or beets to process, the factories closed, too. Then, without goods to ship, the railroad went away. Then people began to slip away, too. Of the 65,000 acres once farmed here, just 1,500 still produced crops. Empty fields extend for miles, patches of raw ground filled with tufts of weeds. Even the wildlife is gone. Few birds chirp. Nothing will grow because the soil is used up, devoid of nutrients. A merciless wind rakes across its surface, scouring the loose soil. Huge Dust Bowl-like clouds of sand blow in, making it difficult to see across the street.

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Figure 3. Change in corn and soy production because of climate change for 2040-2060 compared to 2020 under a moderate global warming scenario (RCP 4.5). Corn and soy are sensitive to heat, and by midcentury, parts of Texas and Oklahoma may see yields drop by more than 44%, while portions of the Midwest see yields increase by more than 6.5%. The projections are available in the 2020 article by ProPublica.org, New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States. A similar map showing the projected change in crop yields by 2080-2100 is published in “On the Move.”

The Shifting Human Climate Niche
Throughout the book, Lustgarten intersperses a number of helpful maps from climate migration researchers. Many of these can be found at a 2020 article by ProPublica.org, New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States. One particularly telling map shows the potential change in agricultural crop yields in the U.S. from climate change (Figure 3).

One researcher interviewed is Marten Scheffer, co-author of a 2020 study, “Future of the human climate niche.” The book includes three maps based on this paper displaying how the ideal human habitat in the U.S. will shift dramatically northward between now and 2070, even under a relatively modest climate change scenario. Lustgarten writes, “The map suggests that almost all of the southernmost latitudes of the United States, roughly following the Interstate 10 corridor from San Diego, California, to Jacksonville, Florida, are destined for enormous challenges as the climate continues to warm.”

Lustgarten describes how this paper shows that climate change is fundamentally shifting the human climate niche:

For at least 6,000 years, people have lived in places that offered a very specific and narrow range of moderate temperatures and modest precipitation — a human niche. What Scheffer and his colleagues’ research suggested was that while migration might have always taken place, conditions are now being created for a sudden and dramatic uptick in both its scale and pace. What they discovered was a picture of mass upheaval that will likely be the largest demographic shift the world has ever seen.

Conclusion
“On the Move” is a timely and important book on the climate change-induced mass migration that has already begun and that will fundamentally rock society. At the end, Lustgarten recommends a holistic approach to the great climate migration crisis that is already unfolding:

This means doing the hard physical work of defense: building sea walls to hold back the ocean and managing forests to forestall wildfires. But it also means investing in transit systems and sewer systems and discounted health care and subsidized child care, because each of these social investments builds up the strength of communities and families so that when climate shocks arrive, households are financially sturdy enough to withstand the change.

On the Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America (Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2024) is $14.99 on Kindle at Amazon.com and $23.17 in hardcover.

Related reading
This is part one of a two-part series. Part two will look at the book’s portrayal of the challenges facing Atlanta, which may be the destination of over a million climate migrants this century.

For those wanting to learn more about climate change migration, another great book is “The Great Displacement” by Jake Bittle (my 2023 review here). I also recommend “Nomad Century,” by Gaia Vince, which argues that migration should be encouraged because it drives economic growth and reduces poverty. The author calls for a safe, fair process for migration, overseen by a global agency with powers to police it. Another recent book, which I did not get a chance to review, is “Planetary Specters.” It argues that to understand the systemic reasons for displacement, it is necessary to reframe climate disaster as interlinked with the history of capitalism and the global politics of race.

Part one of my three-part sea level rise series: How fast are the seas rising?
Part two of my three-part sea level rise series: Eight excellent books on sea level rise risk for U.S. cities
Part three of my three-part sea level rise series: 30 great tools to determine your flood risk in the U.S.
Bubble trouble: Climate change is creating a huge and growing U.S. real estate bubble
‘Where should I move to be safe from climate change?’
Many coastal residents willing to relocate in the face of sea level rise
Disasterology: a book review
With global warming of just 1.2°C, why has the weather gotten so extreme?
‘Is it foolish to hold onto my family’s beloved waterfront home?’
Recommended reading:
Susan Crawford’s awesome Substack feed on climate adaptation policy, Moving Day
Carbon Brief’s detailed 2024 report, In-depth Q&A: How does climate change drive human migration?
Gilbert Gaul’s 2019 book, The Geography of Risk
Climate futurist Alex Steffen’s newsletter

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04 ... ation.html

Three of those ten counties are my old stomping grounds in SC. Ah well, the real estate swine have largely ruined them but sadly that most of the ACE Basin too.

******

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Sea ice is formed when chunks of the Greenland ice sheet break off and flow into the ocean.

Protect the Arctic Region: Already threatened Arctic ecology can be devastated further by rapid militarization
Originally published: Countercurrents on April 22, 2024 by Bharat Dogra (more by Countercurrents) | (Posted Apr 26, 2024)

The Arctic region is warming at twice the global rate, leading to rapid melting of ice—some have even predicted ice-free summers by year 2034. This has brought unprecedented threats to various species of the region including the polar bear. Some species are threatened by the shrinking, even vanishing habitats where they have always lived safely and happily, some are threatened by the fast reducing access to their staple food, while some are threatened by weather extremes.

Despite this there is still relentless march to exploit the vast natural resources of the region, including oil, natural gas, rare earth and other minerals. Partly due to the huge natural resources and partly due to strategic and geo-political reasons, big power confrontation in this remote region can also increase. In fact melting of ice increases the possibility of higher exploitation of natural resources as well as carving out of new maritime routes with all its strategic and commercial implications. Another complication is the increasing confrontational situation of NATO and Russia which may get extended, tragically, even to the Arctic region with very heavy costs to ecology and to native people.

The Arctic region is spread over 8 countries 7 of which are NATO members. These are USA, Canada, Iceland, Denmark (Greenland), Norway, Sweden and Finland. The eighth country is Russia. While Russia has a well-established military presence here, this is largely defensive as Russia has important strategic interests to protect here spread over a vast area. With Finland and Sweden recently becoming NATO members and with the situation in Ukraine not working out to be favorable to NATO plans, the USA may just be tempted to try to create difficulties for Russia in this region. Russia may respond by giving more opportunities to China to acquire a presence here. One move by one side may lead to another move by the other side and very soon the situation may become much more tense and risky.

This should be avoided in the interests of world peace as well as the considerations of protecting Arctic ecology. Not just actual conflict but even large-scale military exercises may prove to be quite harmful for Arctic ecology. Under the Nordic Response 2024 exercise in Norway, in March as many as about 20,000 soldiers from 13 NATO member countries were gathered in the Arctic region with frigates, submarines and other vessels, and over 100 aircraft. This is likely to ultimately increase to about 90,000 soldiers.

A high-risk situation already exists here in which climate change and global warming first create conditions in which exploitation of natural resources and militarization are likely to increase more, and this trend in turn greatly increases the possibilities of global warming further, apart from destruction of local environment and life-species in more direct ways as well. All this should be avoided. With due caution and by ensuring there is no undue suspicion of each other’s intentions, conflict in this region can be avoided as both sides also recognize hopefully how costly in economic as well as in ecological terms, above all of course in terms of loss of human lives, conflict in such a region is likely to prove. Special mechanisms should be in place to minimize militarization and the possibility of any conflict breaking out here.

Further we look here at the various high risks that have already occurred in recent times in this region in more details in the context of a part of this region—Greenland. Very high rate of ice melting has been reported here—even melting of as much as 18 billion tons of ice sheets in just 3 days of mid-July in Greenland. Very frightening estimates have been presented of the extent of rise in sea level if melting on such a scale continues.

It was reported that Donald Trump made an offer of a payment to Denmark to acquire control over Greenland. This was considered an atrocious offer by most people and for good reason was not even considered seriously by the Denmark government. This even led to the cancellation of a planned visit of President Trump to Denmark. Although Denmark controls the foreign policy and security of this vast island, Greenland has been moving towards autonomy and self-government.

However it is not difficult to understand why the USA has been keen to acquire Greenland. In fact even President Truman made an offer in 1946 to purchase Greenland for 100 million dollars. This offer was refused, but Denmark later succumbed to USA pressure to set up military bases in Greenland, including a nuclear powered station Camp Century.

With its strategic location close to Russia as well as the USA, Greenland remains of great military interest to the USA. This is a factor which has acquired more significance recently with the accentuation of big power rivalries.

In addition Greenland is a source of precious mineral resources, including gold and rare earths. The opening up of these rare earth deposits to China is something which the western powers will like to stop, given the fact that China already has high levels of control over rare earths.

Greenland has a population of just 57000 people in its vast territory of 836330 sq. miles and has the lowest population density in the entire world. This Arctic region is highly sensitive from the ecological point of view, a sensitivity which has increased further in times of climate change. As the ice sheets which cover vast areas melt under the influence of global warming, buried carbon deposits will be released and sea levels will rise. The region’s unique biodiversity includes polar bears and seals will be badly threatened.

Hence there is a strong case for the entire Greenland to be administered by the United Nations as a zone of neutrality, peace and environment protection. Under such an arrangement, ecologically protective livelihoods and basic facilities will be ensured by a UN administered program, which will treat the entire island as an area of ecological protection where any exploitation of natural resources will be strictly controlled and no military installation will be allowed. In addition there will be a very careful well-planned effort for undoing the damage already done.

As the snow melts with global warming, the remains of what was once a nuclear-powered military station (Camp Century) of the USA will open up, requiring a very careful clean-up effort. An even bigger danger exists in the form a nuclear weapon which was lost here in a bomber airplane accident in 1968. This was the peak of the cold war period when some USA bomber planes carrying nuclear weapons used to be in the air all the time and the Thule military base in Greenland was a special place for these operations due to the relative proximity of Russian targets from here. The airplane accident took place when the USA bomber containing nuclear weapons was approaching this military base in Greenland. The USA had obtained the permission of the Denmark government to set up this military base but it is not at all certain whether the Denmark government, let alone the local communities, had been informed about the transactions here involving the transport of nuclear weapons.

Actually the plane contained four nuclear weapons but three could be recovered. In the salvage operation in 1968 thousands of pieces of debris as well as millions of tons of ice, suspected to contain radioactive debris, were collected. Still one weapon could not be found despite the huge research effort. Workers employed in the clean-up work suffered from cancer later and have been claiming compensations till recently.

It is by now widely accepted that in this accident as many as four nuclear weapons were endangered, three were recovered more or less intact but one hydrogen bomb was never recovered. One aspect of a UN-administrated protective future should be to remain on constant alert for any tell-tale signs of damage from this so that a potential catastrophic event can still be prevented.

The existing military installations particularly the Thule Military Base should also be dismantled as part of the efforts to establish Greenland as a zone of peace and neutrality. While the wider paradigm of future development should be based on ecological protection, protective livelihoods, peace and neutrality, within this paradigm local people should have all the autonomy for highly decentralized governance. There should be a special program of mental health and well-being to bring down the high rate of suicides and substance abuse in the region.

Clearly there are several serious issues in Greenland which have to be sorted out. A big effort with continuity has to be made to ensure a more protective future for Greenland which is in fact crucial for the entire world.

https://mronline.org/2024/04/26/protect ... ic-region/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: The Long Ecological Revolution

Post by blindpig » Sat Apr 27, 2024 1:54 pm

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Protesters throw an earth-shaped ball during the “Global Strike For Future” demonstration in Stockholm on May 24, 2019. Jonathan Nackstrand—AFP/Getty Images

Eco-socialism to fight climate change
Originally published: Down to Earth on December 2014 by Latha Jishnu (more by Down to Earth) | (Posted Apr 27, 2024)

The enduring images from Peru are the melting glaciers. In the run-up to the 20th Conference of Parties (COP20) on climate change in Lima, TV channels had sent reporters to capture the most drastic impacts of climate change on the host country which is a biodiversity hotspot. Some had focused on the melting of glacial ice high up in the Peruvian Andes and its fallout.

The pictures were stark. The ice cap on Quelccaya, a volcanic plain some 5,500 metres above sea level, had receded dramatically, showing jagged swathes of the dark rock in the frozen landscape. In just 35 years, the glacial ice that was formed around 1,800 years ago to make the world’s largest concentration of tropical glaciers had retreated as much as 20 per cent due to a 0.7° C rise in temperature in the Andes between 1939 and 2009.

But even more worrying were other reports of the Peruvian government’s regressive policies on protecting its environment under President Ollanta Humala. This is a concern that has resonance in India where the new BJP regime of Narendra Modi is rapidly dismantling environmental safeguards.

In Peru, there have been violent clashes between the indigenous people resisting land grab by oil and logging companies. There have been many deaths. In India, land is being given away for industry and development at an alarming rate. At about the time Lima was seeking an elusive agreement, a minister in the Modi Cabinet disclosed that as much as 1,35,000 hectares of land had been given away for various projects in the last three months alone. Speaking at a symposium on the significance of forest foods for adivasis, Minister for Women and Child Development Maneka Gandhi dismayed the gathering by saying that issues related to forests were never discussed in the Cabinet. She also feared that it would be difficult to let the forests be.

The justification in Lima as in Delhi is the same: environmental laws have to be whittled down to attract investment. It is against this backdrop that we have to view the inability of COP20 to fix binding commitments on emissions, leaving each nation free to decide what it wants to do to reduce emissions—if at all.

What can be done to save the planet? Perhaps, Bolivia has an answer. Its extraordinary President Evo Morales, who believes that eco-socialism is the only way out of the mess created by the greed and plunder of the current economic system, has an alternative to fight the climate crisis. He has proposed a joint mitigation and adaptation (JMA) approach for “the integral and sustainable management of forests that would take into account the holistic views of indigenous peoples, local communities and local resource users about the environment and Mother Earth.” Women will be the keystone of this project since the aim was to achieve “gender equality and empowerment of all women and girls”.

Most governments and economists are likely to dismiss this out of hand as utopian or mere socialist twaddle. Terms such as eco-socialism, Mother Earth and indigenous people tend to have this effect on conventional thinking.

Even if the Bolivian plan “to save life and humanity” sounds romantic, can we afford to be dismissive? Some, fortunately, are taking Morales seriously. A summit of ALBA leaders meeting in Havana on December 14 endorsed his proposal to host a global assembly of social movements in 2015 with the aim of adopting a united strategy to fight climate change. ALBA is a group of just nine Latin American and Caribbean countries. It’s a small beginning. But after the failure of Lima, the world needs to look for hope—and solutions—in unlikely places.

https://mronline.org/2024/04/27/eco-soc ... te-change/

Eco-socialism can only be realized through political revolution. Otherwise it is a pipe dream and an obstacle to it's own goal.

******

How Banks and Investors Are Fueling a Global Biodiversity Crisis
Posted on April 27, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. This post somewhat buries its lede by starting first with nation-level biodiversity initiatives, particularly to protect rainforests. It then presents a list of four big bad actors in deforestation. Most are likely to be new names to NC readers.

By Laurel Sutherlin, the senior communications strategist for Rainforest Action Network and a contributor to the Observatory. He is a lifelong environmental and human rights campaigner, naturalist, and outdoor educator passionate about birds and wild places. Follow him on Twitter @laurelsutherlin. Produced by Earth | Food | Life , a project of the Independent Media Institute

In a global context where tropical rainforests play a critical role in biodiversity conservation and climate regulation, these ecosystems are severely threatened by expanding agribusiness and logging activities. This poses significant risks to the environment, wildlife, and communities dependent on rainforests.

Against the backdrop of escalating climate change impacts, urgent action is needed to prevent the collapse of these vital ecosystems and address the injustices faced by Indigenous and local communities and workers within the agricultural sector.

The ratification of the UN Global Biodiversity Framework in December 2022 marked a pivotal moment, signaling a collective commitment by 196 countries to reverse the decline in global biodiversity. However, financial institutions have historically failed to address their role in exacerbating the biodiversity crisis.

A 2023 report by Forests and Finance—a coalition of campaign, grassroots and research organizations that includes TuK Indonesia, Profundo, Amazon Watch, Repórter Brasil, BankTrack, Sahabat Alam Malaysia, Friends of the Earth U.S., and my organization, Rainforest Action Network—sheds light on the extensive financial support provided to sectors responsible for tropical deforestation, including beef, palm oil, pulp and paper, rubber, soy, and timber. “From January 2016 to September 2023, banks provided at least $307 billion in credit to these operations,” states the report, while institutional investors held approximately $38 billion in related shares and bonds.

Despite fluctuations in financial flows, there has been no discernible downward trend in financing forest-risk commodity production. Alarmingly, the analysis of more than 100 financial institutionsʼ policies in 2023 revealed grossly inadequate safeguards against deforestation and its associated social and environmental impacts. The average policy score was just 17 percent, according to the report.

Entities like JBS, Cargill, Royal Golden Eagle, and Sinar Mas Group exemplify the egregious behaviors tolerated and enabled by banks and investors.

Demands to Correct a Systemic Issue

The report by Forests and Finance urged governments and financial institutions to adopt and enact five principles:

Halt and reverse biodiversity loss
Uphold and prioritize the rights of Indigenous peoples, women, and local communities
Facilitate a just transition
Safeguard ecosystem integrity
Harmonize institutional objectives across sectors, issues, and instruments
Immediate action is crucial to combat the climate and biodiversity crises. The report urges financial institutions to align their activities with sustainability goals, enact robust environmental and social policies, and ensure transparency and accountability. By holding the financial sector accountable for its role in enabling social and environmental harm, we can work toward preserving biodiversity and mitigating the impacts of climate change for current and future generations.

Notable Progress

The Forests and Finance report highlights the significant progress of tropical forest countries and key import and financial jurisdictions in promoting sustainable financial practices and combating deforestation. Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, the United States, and the European Union have all taken notable steps toward integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations into their financial systems.

Brazil stands out for excluding industrial livestock activities from sustainable sovereign bonds and for being the first country to commit to integrating the International Sustainability Standards Board’s IFRS Sustainability Disclosure Standards into its regulatory framework by 2026. Implementing these standards will help bolster Brazilian capital markets by amplifying transparency in sustainability-related risks and opportunities. This, in turn, will ensure that companies attract capital and foster global investments that are aligned to meeting the goals of nature protection and sustainable development.

Another initiative that supports sustainability is the implementation of green taxonomies. These taxonomies are meant to simplify guidelines regarding activities that support decarbonization objectives, including efforts to curtail deforestation and environmental degradation. This can bolster financiers’ confidence in investing in projects that move the needle toward a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy.

Indonesia introduced its Green Taxonomy in January 2022 to expedite financing for sustainable sectors. “Indonesia’s joint targets under the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) include capping power sector emissions to 290 MT by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050,” reportedLuthfyana Kartika Larasati and Tiza Mafira of the Climate Policy Initiative, an independent nonprofit research group based in San Francisco, in October 2023.

“To achieve these [targets], phasing out coal-fired power plants while accelerating the deployment of renewable energy sources is necessary. As financiers are now reluctant to finance coal, a transition taxonomy defines measurable parameters within which coal investment is allowed in order to facilitate early coal decommissioning,” wrote Larasati and Mafira.

Malaysia implemented the Value-based Intermediation Financing and Investment Impact Assessment Framework (VBIAF) in November 2019 and issued the Climate Change and Principle-based Taxonomy in 2021 to guide Islamic financial institutions.

Meanwhile, a March 2024 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) climate disclosure rulingseems to be a step in the right direction toward the U.S. managing its climate risk, even though the move remains inadequate to effectively protect the world’s forests. On the procurement side, the new EU Deforestation Regulation, expected to take effect on December 30, 2024, provides a potentially powerful new tool for achieving supply chain traceability and transparency.

The European Union also approved new EU Taxonomy criteria in 2023 focusing on biodiversity protection and ecosystem restoration, despite criticism that it judged harmful sectors like forestry and bioenergy to be environmentally sustainable economic activities.

Forest-Risk Credit Trends

The report revealed that at least $307 billion in credit had been directed to forest-risk sectors from 2016 to September 2023. The beef sector dominated South America, while palm oil led in Southeast Asia and rubber in Central and West Africa. Primary beneficiaries included agro-commodity traders and companies with significant environmental and social violations.

While progress has been made, heightened attention and enhanced due diligence procedures are needed to address associated ESG risks and promote sustainable financial practices to combat deforestation and environmental degradation.

Big corporations launched the Taskforce for Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) in June 2021 to guide businesses in reporting nature-related dependencies. However, civil society organizations have repeatedly raised concerns about the task force’s development, composition, approach, and potential for greenwashing.

Regional Analysis of Credit Flows

The analysis of regional credit flow and investment trends in forest-risk commodity sectors across South America, Southeast Asia, and Central and West Africa revealed significant financial flows and investments contributing to deforestation and environmental degradation.

In South America, the beef sector dominated forest-risk credit flows, followed by soy, and pulp and paper, with Banco do Brasil emerging as a significant creditor. Infamous beneficiaries included companies like Suzano and Marfrig.

In Southeast Asia, palm oil was the dominant recipient of forest-risk credit, followed by pulp, paper, and rubber. Indonesian banks played a significant role as financiers, with recipients including tycoon-owned conglomerates Sinar Mas Group (SME) and Royal Golden Eagle (RGE). Concerns over governance risks and greenwashing practices persisted despite reductions in primary forest loss.

Central and West Africa saw the rubber sector attracting the majority of forest-risk credit, with Chinese companies emerging as primary financiers. The Chinese Sinochem Group was the largest recipient of the credit, followed by China Forestry Group and Wilmar.

Despite fluctuations in credit flows, challenges remain in corporate structures and accountability. For instance, companies like “SMG [and] RGE… have established complex corporate structures that mask ownership relations. This poses serious governance risks and facilitates leakage and greenwashing. They have all been linked to egregious social and environmental harms for decades,” states the report.

Forest-Risk Investments

Investments in activities likely to damage forests globally amounted to more than $38 billion, with palm oil receiving the most significant share, followed by pulp and paper. Major institutional investors like BlackRock and Vanguard increased their stakes in forest-risk commodity companies, while others maintained or reduced their investments.

In South America, investments were predominantly allocated to the pulp and paper sector, with Suzano being the highest recipient. Southeast Asia saw the most investment in palm oil companies, with Sime Darby Plantations and IOI Group among the leading recipients.

In Central and West Africa, palm oil companies also received the majority of investments, with Sumitomo Forestry and Itochu being prominent recipients.

Forest-Risk Policy Assessments

Forests and Finance’s assessment methodology evaluated financial institutionsʼ adherence to 38 criteria to avoid contributing to deforestation and associated ESG issues.

These criteria are categorized into environmental, social, and governance requirements, covering commitments to zero deforestation, respect for land rights, anti-corruption measures, and more.

Forest-risk policy assessments of more than 100 financial institutions revealed a lack of robust policies, with an average score of only 17 percent. Despite incremental improvements since 2016, vague language, unclear timeframes, and loopholes persisted, leading to continued facilitation of human rights violations and deforestation.

The analysis underscores the urgent need for heightened attention, enhanced due diligence, and more stringent policies to address associated environmental, social, and governance risks. It also highlights the need to promote sustainable financial practices in combating deforestation and ecological degradation in tropical forest regions.

Policies by Sector

Regarding sectoral policies, financial institutions exhibit the most robust policies for palm oil, followed closely by timber, and pulp and paper. However, the average scores for these sectors remain relatively low, indicating room for improvement despite sustained civil society campaigns and certification schemesʼ existence.

The assessment of forest-risk bank policies reveals that, on average, the largest 30 forest-risk banks have higher overall policy scores than the largest forest-risk investors. However, the scores across the board are still low, reflecting minimal policy coverage across ESG criteria.

While some banks like CIMB and BNP Paribas scored relatively higher, others like Banco do Brasil and ICBC had notably low scores, indicating inadequate policies to address harmful activities.

Four Corporations Leading Destruction

The report highlights four corporations—Cargill, JBS, Royal Golden Eagle, and Sinar Mas Group—that continue to receive significant credit and investment from financial institutions despite having egregious environmental and social track records. Cargill, in particular, has received substantial credit for its soy operations in tropical forest regions despite having a legacy of human rights abuses and environmental degradation.

Cargill

Cargillʼs expansion into the Brazilian Amazon and the Cerrado savanna has raised concerns due to decades of deforestation, violations of Indigenous peoples’ rights, and failures to meet deforestation commitments. Civil society campaigns, such as Burning Legacy, have aimed to hold Cargill accountable for its practices, documenting evidence of human rights abuses and deforestation in its supply chain.

Despite making commitments to ensure zero deforestation by 2020, Cargill has failed to meet its goals and has faced allegations of land grabbing and violations of Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC) rights.

The report also discusses the implications of the financialization of land and the role of the financial sector in exacerbating soy-driven deforestation through land speculation. It evaluates the policies of banks financing Cargill, revealing low scores and loopholes that weaken their effectiveness in preventing harm in forest-risk sectors.

JBS

The report delves into the multifaceted issues surrounding JBS, the Brazilian meat giant, and its impact on the Amazon rainforest, climate change, and local communities. Financed by major banks from Brazil, the United States, Europe, and Japan, JBS has received substantial credit and investment despite its documented history of harmful business practices. Since 2019, banks have provided more than $718 million in forest-risk beef credit to JBS, while investors held $667 million in bonds and shares as of September 2023.

JBSʼs operations in the Brazilian Amazon have devastating consequences for forests, biodiversity, and Indigenous and traditional communities. The company’s practices include bribery, corruption, price fixing, forced labor and labor abuses, forest destruction, land grabbing, and contribution to climate change. Despite JBS’s high-profile pledge to achieve net-zero emissions by 2040, independent research suggests that the company lacks a credible decarbonization plan, leading to allegations of greenwashing.

The exploitation of people and forests in the Amazon is a systemic issue linked to JBS. Between 2008 and 2020, the company’s involvement in deforestation extended to approximately 200,000 hectares in its direct supply chain and 1.5 million hectares indirectly. Despite agreements to clean up its supply chain, JBS has failed to ensure its products are free from deforestation and forced labor, as evidenced by ongoing violations.

The assessment of JBS policies reveals concerning scores, indicating inadequate measures to prevent environmental harm and protect human rights. While some banks like Barclays scored relatively higher, others like Bradesco and BTG Pactual had alarmingly low scores, raising questions about their commitment to addressing crucial issues like deforestation and climate change.

The communities affected by these actions are now holding financial institutions supporting companies like JBS responsible for the environmental damage. In April 2024, the Parakanã people met with the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) to ask for reparation for the devastation of their territory, including by JBS suppliers. The Brazilian bank holds 20 percent of the shares of JBS and is therefore considered co-responsible for the impacts.

Royal Golden Eagle Group

The report also reveals mounting evidence that the multibillion-dollar Royal Golden Eagle Group(RGE), which says on its website “manages a group of world-class companies specializing in resource-based manufacturing,” operates numerous “shadow companies” and complex offshore ownership schemes to hide their destruction of forests across Indonesia. Banks have poured more than $4.5 billion into forest-risk pulp and paper-attributable loans and underwriting services for RGEʼs operations between 2019 and 2023.

However, none of the financial institutions assessed have adequate policies to mitigate the negative impacts. Scores for RGEʼs top creditors range from 1 percent to 24 percent, indicating a lack of comprehensive policy coverage regarding forest-risk commodity sectors.

Sinar Mas Group

Sinar Mas Group (SMG), Indonesiaʼs largest conglomerate, has attracted substantial financing, receiving more than $20.3 billion in credit since 2019. Its palm oil division alone obtained $3.7 billion, primarily from Indonesian and Malaysian banks, between 2019 and September 2023. Despite this financial backing, SMG faces accusations of human rights abuses, massive greenhouse gas emissions, and large-scale deforestation, mainly through its pulp and paper division, Asia Pulp and Paper (APP).

The destruction of the Rawa Singkil Wildlife Reserve by illegal palm oil plantations linked to SMGʼs operations poses a significant concern, threatening biodiversity and local communitiesʼ well-being within the Leuser Ecosystem. Despite documented evidence, SMG and its subsidiaries have failed to address these issues adequately, raising questions about their commitment to sustainability.

The report evaluates the policies of banks and investors financing SMG, revealing a spectrum of approaches. Malaysian banks CIMB and Maybank and Dutch bank Rabobank exhibit more robust policies, scoring highest for the palm oil sector. However, Indonesian banks such as Bank Panin, BRI, and Japanese bank MUFG have notably weaker policies, indicating insufficient measures to address environmental and social risks.

What Governments and Financial Institutions Can Do

The report underscores the urgent need for financial institutions to adopt robust policies and due diligence measures to address environmental and social risks associated with companies like JBS and RGE. Failure to do so perpetuates ecological destruction and human rights abuses and exposes banks and investors to significant financial and reputational risks.

Critically, the report also advocates for governments to step in and mandate financial sector regulation necessary to safeguard society and the ecosystems we depend on, consistent with international public policy goals. This is a problem that ultimately demands stronger, more systemic interventions. These could include, for example, prohibiting the allocation of capital to certain sectors or corporations driving ecosystem destruction and legislating for meaningful sanctions against financial institutions that fail to align their lending and investment accordingly.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04 ... risis.html

Like I said above.

******

Debt From Above: The Carbon Credit Coup
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on APRIL 26, 2024
Whitney Webb and Mark Goodwin

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Latin America is quietly being forced into a carbon market scheme through regional contractual obligations – enforced by the satellites of a US intelligence-linked firm – which seeks to create an inter-continental “smart grid,” erode national and local sovereignty, and link carbon-based life to the debt-based monetary system via a Bitcoin sidechain.

Sweeping across the shores of Latin America comes a scheme from some of the most predatory figures in the venture capital ecosystem of the United States. It is a brazen attempt to assert foreign influence across Latin America and threatens to reshape the very fabric of the region and the day to day lives of its people. At its core is a serpentine set of contractual obligations, held at the municipal level, cast throughout Central and South America, upheld by an intelligence-linked satellite company, and controlled by a private se­ctor consortium of green-washed financiers aiming to turn the region’s forests into equity and carbon credits. At the same time, it obliges local governments to spend “conservation” funds on projects that further financialize nature and aid the construction of an inter-continental “smart” grid. One of its key ambitions appears to be further entrenching the debt load of the region through the multi-lateral development banks and the dollarization of the continent from the subnational level up through carbon markets upheld by a digital ledger. What seems like a technological marvel aimed at progress and connectivity harbors a darker agenda — one that intertwines planetary surveillance, financial predation, geopolitical maneuvering, and the domination of a resource-rich continent buried in debt.

This grand design, known by the acronym GREEN+ and conceived by stalwarts of the digital dollar and debt schemes of the private sector, has quietly taken root through a web of political entanglements at the local level. Even a key figure in the Drexel Burnham Lambert junk bond scandal plays a role. Astonishingly, every capital city of Latin America has eagerly signed on, apparently unaware of the strings attached to these seemingly benign partnerships, while a majority of municipalities in the region have also made commitments with these same groups that will push them to join GREEN+, potentially in a matter of weeks. The (hopefully) well-meaning regional governments have unwittingly paved the way for a sweeping surveillance apparatus tied to American intelligence that threatens to erode privacy and civil liberties under the guise of progress and combating the climate crisis.

Upon further observation, GREEN+’s connections reveal a disturbing narrative of financial interests melding with geopolitical ambitions. The backers of the satellite company share ties with former members of the highest offices of US financial policy and regulation alongside the key architects and profiteers of private capital creation, aiming to consolidate control over monetary flows in Latin America within the redistribution of distressed government debt from the public to the private sector. As this two-part series will show, this concerted effort is not merely about surveillance – it’s a calculated move towards further dollarization, tightening the grip of corporate and technological monopolies over the economic landscape of the Americas.

The scheme’s proponents also speak of how it will significantly advance the “economic” and “regional” integration of the Americas, invoking visions of unity while obscuring the true nature of their agenda for economic domination and stronger regional governance. Their model, eerily reminiscent of the EU’s transition from a free trade union to a bureaucratic behemoth yoked to the US through the Eurodollar, sets the stage for unelected entities to enforce policies through programmable money, enabled by smart contracts on blockchains and designed to benefit the few at the expense of the many. What materializes before us is not just a technological evolution but a quiet banker coup — one that lays the groundwork for land grabs and invasive surveillance under the guise of progress and conservation. It’s a narrative that echoes throughout history, where intelligence-linked figures and predatory financial interests converge to prey upon the Global South, leaving a trail of economic exploitation and geopolitical manipulation in their wake. What masquerades as progress for individuals and the environment at large may very well be the harbinger of a new era of subjugation and control.

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GREEN+

THE GREEN+ PROGRAM

In 2022, several groups came together to launch the GREEN+ (Government Reduction of Emissions for Environmental Net + Gain) Jurisdictional Programme, the “first program that will monitor by satellite all subnational protected areas of the planet” and – through contracts with numerous local and state governments – propel and deepen the economic integration of the Americas through the quiet imposition of a continent-wide, blockchain-based carbon market.

GREEN+ has been piloted in a handful of Latin American cities since its founding and is due to launch globally in just a few weeks time. Most of the GREEN+ agreements with “subnational” governments have remained focused on Latin America. Per the program, the subnational agreements have established the “rules and requirements to enable accounting and crediting with GREEN+ policies and measures and/or nested projects, implemented as GHG mitigation activities,” with GREEN+ being described as “the planet’s new subnational government advisory mechanism.”

Key to the program are the services provided by GREEN+ founding member Satellogic, an Argentina-founded company closely aligned with Peter Thiel’s Palantir and Elon Musk’s SpaceX that specializes in sub-meter resolution satellite surveillance. Satellogic, a contractor to the US government and whose founders were also previously contactors for the US’ DHS, NSA and DARPA, will provide surveillance data of the entire world’s “protected areas” to GREEN+’s governing coalition, composed of the NGOs CC35, the Global Footprint Network, The Energy Coalition and other “respected stakeholders.”

According to the press release that details Satellogic’s alliance with GREEN+, the satellite surveillance data “will enable individuals, organizations, and global markets to accurately monitor the compliance of signatory jurisdictions to avoid deforestation.” However, other information in the press release reveals that forests will actually be monitored for the purpose of generating “credible” carbon credits to be traded on exchanges by GREEN+ on behalf of subnational governments. The press release also states that the GREEN+ alliance with Satellogic will “advance the future measurement of energy emissions in the most populated areas of the planet,” i.e. the surveillance of carbon emissions from space. Satellogic launched some GREEN+-affiliated satellites in 2022 as part of its pilot and is due to launch the remainder this April during Miami Climate Week. Satellogic’s past and upcoming launches of GREEN+ satellites were/will be conducted in collaboration with Elon Musk’s SpaceX, also a contractor to the US military and US intelligence agencies.

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Satellogic and GREEN+Though framed as a way to develop economic incentives to mitigate climate change, the program is based on California’s controversial and grift-prone cap and trade program and has been created (and is being implemented by) individuals and companies that are seeking to covertly dollarize Latin America and/or have deep ties to US intelligence. Its ultimate ambitions go far beyond carbon markets and seek to use satellite surveillance to enforce carbon emission levels in both urban and rural areas. It also seeks to impose a new financial system centered around energy, commodity, and natural resource “credits” that are underpinned by extensive and invasive surveillance, underscored by the motto: “Earth observation is preservation.”The alliance that created GREEN+ includes the NGOs CC35, the Global Footprint Network (GFN), Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Catalytic Finance Foundation (CFF, formerly R20) and The Energy Coalition (TEC); the Gibraltar-based law firm Isolas; the global insurance giant Lockton; the satellite company Satellogic; the “green” blockchain company EcoRegistry; the dominant carbon credit certifier in Latin America, Cercarbono; and Rootstock (RSK), the bitcoin side-chain protocol responsible for “smart BTC.” Several members of the alliance, though how many is unclear, now operate as part of a consortium linked to a company called Global Carbon Parks, which is discussed in greater detail later in this article and now manages major aspects of GREEN+. The NGOs (i.e. CC35, GFN, CFF and TEC) involved in founding GREEN+ are those who actually govern the GREEN+ program from California.As previously mentioned, the program takes carbon in “effectively conserved protected areas of a sub-national jurisdiction”, i.e. a city, county, province, or state/region, and converts them into carbon credits. Per the program, “these credits are traded on the [carbon] offset market, and income is deposited in a trust fund” that is controlled by GREEN+ and is known as the GREEN+ Trust. That trust is run by unspecified individuals who work for Lockton, Isolas and Rootstock. Alejandro Guerrero, head of Lockton’s Argentina & Uruguay branch, is the only publicly acknowledged member of the trust.Another website tied to the GREEN+ initiative describes the initial process as follows:
Public and private agreements between [a subnational] government and custodians are signed with zero upfront cost.
Custodians trade the carbon units that are produced by the subnational governments (the public sector) signing contracts with the private sector in voluntary carbon markets.
Those contracts signed by the subnational governments become smart contracts and carbon credits are then tokenized for traceability.
The GREEN+ Trust holds government funds in escrow.
Subsequently, “a partial release of trust funds is made periodically during the crediting period of the jurisdictional initiative.” From this “partial release,” “a percentage operational fee” is deducted (the percentage is undisclosed in the program’s documents) and paid to the GREEN+ program while a separate (and also undisclosed) fee is also deducted “for the operation of the GREEN+ Trust.” Disbursements of what remains are made annually over a ten year period and, per graphs produced by GREEN+, those payments remain the same, fixed value even if the value of the carbon credits of the protected areas grows.

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From GREEN+
Between 40% and 60% of the funds actually received by subnational governments can be used to “design and execute projects” aimed at conservation, while the rest “is allocated for new jurisdictional decarbonisation initiatives” that can produce additional or “consequential” carbon credits. These “consequential” credits are then “offered as a preferred option to the investors who initially purchased the conservation credits at a 50% discounted price calculated at the current market price.” However, later in the same document, the program says that “the amount required for the initial implementation” of conservation projects “may not exceed 20% of the funds allocated [from the GREEN+ Trust] to the jurisdictional initiative.” Clearly, the amount of funds actually being generated for conservation-related projects is minimal and, even in the best case scenario, is less than half of the capital generated by the carbon credits themselves. However, as we shall see, these “conservation” projects must be done in conjunction with approved partners of Global Carbon Parks, which – like the organization itself – are tied to predatory financial interests and oligarchs with questionable motives.

Of the funds that governments actually receive as part of GREEN+, half are officially meant to go toward conservation-related projects while the other half are meant to go toward decarbonization-related projects. However, on the Global Carbon Parks-GREEN+ website, it notes that the decarbonization projects must be conducted alongside Community Electricity, which forms part of Global Carbon Parks and is closely connected to the GREEN+ alliance member The Energy Coalition (TEC). As will be discussed later, TEC and Community Electricity are together attempting to build an inter-continental “smart” grid in the Americas and are also involved in efforts to develop “smart” cities and suburbs.

As for GREEN+’s conservation projects, the website states that “50% of the resources received by the capital [city as part of GREEN+] must be used for social and environmental impact in protected urban areas with partners such as Cities4Forests.” Cities4Forests was founded by the World Resources Institute (WRI), a World Economic Forum affiliate and contractor to suspected CIA front USAID that is focused on resource “sustainability.” WRI is funded by the US and several European governments, billionaires Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and Mike Bloomberg as well as Google, Meta/Facebook, the Soros family’s Open Societies Foundations, the UN, Walmart, the World Bank and the World Economic Forum, among others. WRI’s Cities4Forests shares many of the same funding sources, such as the governments of the UK, Germany, Denmark and the US as well as the World Bank and the Caterpillar Foundation. Other funders include the Wall Street giant Citi Group, the Rockefeller Foundation and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). Notably, the Rockefeller Foundation and the IDB recently teamed up to create the Intrinsic Exchange Group, which has spearheaded the financialization of nature via the creation of Natural Asset Corporations (NACs). As Unlimited Hangout previously reported, NACs create corporations that take control of natural assets that were previously part of the “commons,” such as forests, rivers and lakes, and then sell shares of those assets to Wall Street asset managers, sovereign wealth funds and other financial institutions in order to generate profit under the guise of “conserving” the asset they target.

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From GREEN+
Unsurprisingly, most of Cities4Forests’ projects, such as those that would be built with GREEN+ funds, are similar to NACs in that they focus on using natural assets and “natural capital” to produce new financial and insurance products. Examples of Cities4Forests “conservation” projects include the development of a Forest Resilience Bond and the India Forum for Nature-based Solutions. One of the India-based forum’s “core partners” is the Nature Conservancy, which has been run by Wall Street bankers for years and has pioneered the modern iteration of the controversial “debt for conservation” swap among other “nature-based solutions.” The funders of Cities4Forest and its creator the WRI are also deeply affiliated with groups like the Glasgow Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) and UN-backed climate finance initiatives that openly seek to use debt imperialism to herd the global economy, with a focus on emerging markets, into a new system of global financial governance.

Thus, the “conservation” and “decarbonization” efforts that subnational governments must enact as part of their contractual agreements with GREEN+ will go towards projects tied to either the smart grid/smart city developer Community Electricity or a “conservation” organization backed by Western oligarchs, multi-national corporations and banks that seeks to financialize and monetize nature under the guise of conserving it.

CC35 AND THE SUBNATIONAL PIVOT

CC35, or Ciudades Capitales de las Americas frente al Cambio Climático (American Capital Cities Facing Climate Change), is the most visible organization behind the GREEN+ program and one of the members of its governance committee. CC35’s goal is the economic integration of the Americas (North, South and Central) through coordinated climate change policies, specifically the creation of an Inter-American carbon market, with GREEN+ being the means of implementing that market. The group focuses on “subnational” governments, namely capital cities of the Americas, thereby circumventing national governments with respect to Climate Change-related policy.

Regarding GREEN+, Sebastián Navarro, the secretary general of CC35, stated of the program that: “We will be relentless from the governance of the GREEN+ program with those who want to continue playing with the future of humanity,” adding that their “relentless” approach would be greatly aided by Satellogic’s satellite surveillance capabilities, which would also “generate unprecedented credibility among investors of the carbon credits produced by conservation.” Navarro’s promise to be “relentless” in governing a satellite surveillance regime of American forests for the purpose of producing “high-credibility” carbon markets.

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Sebastián Navarro of CC35

While framed as an initiative “born out of Latin America,” CC35 is registered in Miami; Florida (Coral Gables, specifically) and has long been funded and partnered with US-based interests. For instance, CC35’s first partners were R20 (Regions of Climate Action, now the Catalytic Finance Foundation), a group created by former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in partnership with the UN, and the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation. From there, CC35 partnered with UN and UN-linked organizations as well as Pegasus Capital Advisors, which also finances CC35 and Schwarzenegger’s R20/Catalytic Finance Foundation. R20/Catalytic Finance, like CC35, focuses its attention on “subnational” governments.

Pegasus Capital is the firm created by Craig Cogut, a key figure in the “junk bond” financial scandal at the now defunct Drexel Burnham Lambert. Drexel’s junk bond department, led by Michael Milken, engaged in blatantly illegal activity and used junk bonds to help fuel the takeovers of major corporations by the era’s infamous “corporate raiders” before the bank’s collapse. Specifically, Cogut was the lawyer who advised the Milken-run and scandal-ridden junk bond department on the legality of transactions, including those that saw Milken become a convicted felon. Following Drexel’s collapse, Cogut teamed up with a group of Drexel alumni led by Leon Black – now best known for his close association with the deceased sex trafficker and “financial adviser” Jeffrey Epstein – to co-found Apollo Advisers (now Apollo Global Management) in 1990. Cogut left Apollo to found Pegasus in 1996 and Pegasus has since became a key player in several UN-supported “green” finance initiatives. Cogut is also financially entangled with Satellogic’s co-founder, Emiliano Kargieman, as will be discussed later.

Cogut subsequently became a board member of Arizona State University’s Global Institute of Sustainability, which was created by Michael Crow (and who served on the board alongside Cogut). Crow is chairman of the board of trustees of In-Q-tel, the CIA’s venture capital arm. Cogut also served on the board of ASU’S McCain Institute, named for the late Senator John McCain, which has links to Ashton Kutcher’s CIA-linked charity Thorn. Current board members of the McCain Institute include both Crow and former CIA director David Petraeus, as well as Lynn Forester de Rothschild, who co-created the Council for Inclusive Capital with the Vatican. Cogut was also on the board of the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI), part of the Clinton family philanthropies, and CHAI was largely shaped and influenced by notorious sex trafficker and “financial advisor for billionaires” Jeffrey Epstein, having been the chief reason for former president Bill Clinton’s flights on Epstein’s plane in the early 2000s.

Notably, Cogut is not the only Drexel alum to be involved in “green finance.” The field of “green finance” itself was essentially invented by Richard Sandor, who made millions at Drexel during the 1980s, pioneering “innovative” products like the collateralized mortgage obligation (CMO), which would later contribute to the 2008 financial crisis. Sandor had previously been deemed the “father of financial futures” and is also credited with helping create derivatives. After Drexel’s collapse, Sandor moved on to pioneering carbon emissions trading and carbon markets with the vision of creating “an all-electronic exchange for carbon trading,” a vision that has since taken shape.

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Craig Cogut of Pegasus Capital

CC35 has long been led by Sebastián Navarro. Under his leadership, CC35 helped broker the creation of the Subnational Climate Fund, which is backed by Cogut’s Pegasus Capital along with BNP Paribas, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Bloomberg Philanthropies and the governments of Germany, the UK, Australia and the Netherlands. That fund focuses on financing infrastructure projects in the Global South at the subnational (e.g. city, state) level, again bypassing national governments. Indeed, the main modus operandi of CC35 is brokering contracts between small, subnational governments and “green” finance entities that are tied to centers of US/European political or financial power.

Navarro is listed as a director of CC35 as are two prominent, right-leaning Latin American politicians: Felipe Alessandri Vergara, mayor of the Chilean capital Santiago from 2016 to 2021, and Nasry Asfura Zablah, former mayor of the Honduran capital Tegucigalpa and former Honduran presidential candidate. Alessandri is a well-known figure in Chilean center-right politics and an ally of the recently deceased former Chilean president Sebastián Piñera. Alessandri is controversial within the Chilean right for his covert support of initiatives generally favored by the left and publicly shunned by his party while serving as Santiago’s mayor, such as climate finance/regional economic integration (via CC35) and his financing of initiatives related to illegal immigration. Alessandri’s successor and supposed political nemesis, Irací Hassler of Chile’s Communist Party, has since taken over for Alessandri as CC35’s Vice President for South America. As for Nasry Asfura, he was the subject of a Honduran political scandal due to his appearance in the Pandora Papers and his alleged involvement in suspicious offshore finance activities. He was also indicted on money laundering and fund embezzlement, but charges were dropped under Asfura’s successor Jorge Aldana, who is now president of CC35.

The current vice president of CC35 for Central America is Mario Durán, the mayor of San Salvador and a close ally of El Salvador’s president Nayib Bukele as well as a member of Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas party. Durán is poised to take over the leadership of CC35 per a recent announcement from the group. In 2021, Durán signed a contract with CC35 regarding education about the use of Bitcoin in all metropolitan region municipalities in El Salvador, and is the only mention of CC35 promoting the use of Bitcoin. As will be noted again later on, the CC35-led GREEN+ initiative is partnered with Rootstock, which created and develops a Bitcoin sidechain that enables smart contracts on the Bitcoin blockchain. Presumably, the goal is to run GREEN+’s digital carbon market on the same blockchain.

While it may seem odd to an American audience that “regional integration” efforts under the guise of climate change would be led largely by right-leaning politicians, it is important to point out that such integration efforts have historically been led by both left and right factions in Latin America, who compete for dominance over the region. For instance, right-leaning efforts at economically and/or politically integrating the Americas include Mercosur (the Southern Common Market now championed by the “anti-globalist” Javier Milei) and Prosur (Forum for the Progress and Integration of South America, launched by Chile’s center-right Piñera). Left-leaning efforts include ALADI (Latin American Integration Association) and UNASUR (Union of South American Nations). All of these efforts have failed due to geopolitical disagreements mainly centered around whether to grant membership to countries like Venezuela, Cuba and others with governments estranged from the so-called “Washington consensus” or, more recently, efforts to forge closer ties to Russia and/or China. Given that several important Latin American countries can suddenly change what side of the “consensus” they are on depending on presidential election results, such as recently happened in Brazil and Argentina, these regional integration efforts have failed to gain significant traction over the last several decades. Nevertheless, the end goal of economic integration begetting political integration remains the same. Thus, as CC35 shows, the push to regionally integrate Latin America has now, very quietly, pivoted away from engagement at the national level to the subnational level.

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Aurelio Peccei at the 3rd Annual WWF Congress in 1973

(Much much more at link.)

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/04/ ... edit-coup/

Now, what part of capitalism don't you dumb ass Greens understand? To be Green you must be Red!
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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