Russia today
Re: Russia today
Shoigu makes a comeback
I have not seen any comments on what I am about to describe in alternative media recently, not to mention in mainstream, which by definition only takes an interest in Vladimir Putin and could not care less about who is who in the Kremlin line-up below Number One. So much the worse for mainstream, because watching the musical chairs in Moscow is no less valuable open source intelligence on where policy is headed than it would be with respect to leading politicians and statesmen in London or Washington or Berlin.
As we all know, Sergei Shoigu, who is as close a friend to Vladimir Putin as anyone in Russia may be said to be, was this past spring unceremoniously removed from his position as Defense Minister, which he occupied for more than a decade, and was made Secretary of the Security Council; which took him out of the line of command and entrusted him with unclear responsibilities of an advisory nature. The reasons for his removal were fairly clear, namely a number of corruption scandals among his direct subordinates, which suggested that it was high time for cleaning house. Moreover, no one had forgotten how Shoigu and the head of the Russian general staff General Gerasimov had been denounced publicly for incompetence and corruption by head of the Wagner Group Pavel Prigozhin in the months before Prigozhin staged his insurrection.
In the intervening period, I would say not so much that Shoigu’s star has risen on its own as that the luster of his successor, Andrei Belousov, and of the aforementioned Valery Gerasimov has been tarnished by the stunning failure of the Russian military leadership to anticipate and prevent the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk Oblast, which has been a big embarrassment for the Putin government even if it is ending badly for Kiev. It should never have happened.
Now in the past several days we have seen proof positive that wind is once again in the sails of Mr. Shoigu. He was present, as a silent witness, to be sure, but present nonetheless as the senior representative of Russia’s siloviki (security and defense apparatus) when Putin received the directors of national security from the BRICS countries at the Konstantinovsky Palace outside Petersburg on Thursday. He was present at the sidelines meeting there of Putin and the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Presumably Belousov was not there because he was busy managing Russia’s largest global naval exercise in 30 years, Ocean 2024, with large scale Chinese naval participation and a great many foreign observers.
Now today’s news indicates that Mr Shoigu is in Pyongyang negotiating directly with the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. This can only be about the most serious defense issues, including further shipments of armaments to Moscow.
All of these moves of personnel on the chessboard are yet further proof of Vladimir Putin’s remarkable skills in Human Resources. He never completely discards any of his underperforming subordinates. They are not simply ‘fired’ in the spirit of Donald Trump. No they are held close to him so that their talents may be used at some future point as needed for the country’s greater benefit. And if I may be allowed a side glance at what The Donald was saying in his debate with Kamala, none of those removed from high positions is given the opportunity or the incentive to write a denunciation of The Boss.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/09/14/ ... -comeback/
******
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy (center) and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (right) are welcomed by Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha (left) for a meeting in Kiev, Ukraine on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. [Photo: AP Photo/Leon Neal]
U.S., UK to announce expansion of NATO weapons strikes inside Russia
Originally published: World Socialist Web Site (WSWS) on September 11, 2024 by Andre Damon (more by World Socialist Web Site (WSWS)) | (Posted Sep 14, 2024)
The United States and United Kingdom will imminently announce a major expansion of Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia using NATO weapons, the Guardian and Politico reported on Wednesday.
The announcement will come just days after Ukraine launched its largest drone barrage deep inside Russian territory on Monday, for the first time killing someone in Moscow and destroying dozens of homes in the capital city of a nuclear-armed state.
The move was discussed between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Minister David Lammy during their meetings with Ukrainian officials in Kiev on Wednesday.
When asked whether “Ukraine needs this long-range capability of striking into Russian territory,” Blinken replied that “we discussed long-range fires” with Ukrainian officials and that it would be further discussed when U.S. President Joe Biden meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Washington on Friday.
He continued,
From day one, as you heard me say, we have adjusted and adapted as needs have changed, as the battlefield has changed, and I have no doubt that we will continue to do so as this evolves.
Regarding the discussions, the Guardian reported,
British government sources indicated that a decision had already been made to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow cruise missiles on targets inside Russia, although it is not expected to be publicly announced on Friday when Starmer meets Biden in Washington DC.
When asked on Tuesday about allowing expanded strikes inside Russia, Biden replied,
We’re working that out now.
Politico cited Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin as saying he “would not be surprised” if the decision had already been made. The report continued,
Wednesday’s joint visit to Kyiv by Blinken and Lammy to meet Zelenskiy would not be taking place had there been no positive decision regarding Storm Shadow, the sources added.
The news outlet noted,
But it would be considered unnecessarily provocative to make a public announcement about long-range missiles in Kyiv.
In other words, the announcement will take place in a proverbial “Friday night news dump” to make the fact that NATO weapons will be raining down on Russian cities appear less “provocative” and to keep this development, which threatens to dramatically escalate the war, out of public consciousness.
In a statement on X, Lammy declared,
I am in Kyiv today with @SecBlinken to reiterate our united and ironclad support for Ukraine. We must stand up to Vladimir Putin’s imperialism. Our collective security depends on it.
Blinken framed the massively provocative action being prepared by the U.S. and UK as a response to an “escalation” by Russia. “And we’ve now seen this action of Russia, Russia acquiring ballistic missiles from Iran, which will further empower their aggression in Ukraine. So if anyone is taking escalatory action, it would appear to be Mr. Putin and Russia,” Blinken said.
On Monday, a group of leading House Republicans published a letter to President Biden calling for the lifting of all remaining restrictions on the use of NATO-provided weapons from Ukraine.
The letter demanded,
We write to urge you to lift the remaining restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided long-range systems, specifically Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), against legitimate military targets deeper inside Russia.
The letter declared that “concerns about escalation” have been “consistently invalidated since day one of the war.” It asserted,
Neither Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided weapons in Russia nor its military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region—the first foreign occupation of Russian territory since World War II—has triggered a Russian escalatory response.
Commenting on the reporting by the Guardian, Russian Senator Aleksey Pushkov wrote on Telegram,
The decision to strike Russian territory is clearly being prepared… There are too many conversations and hints about it for it to be reversed. Even if it has not been made yet, it looks like it will be a matter of days. The leak via The Guardian is not accidental. Public opinion is being prepared.
Anatoly Antonov, the Russian Ambassador to the U.S., declared that Washington “continues to test the limits of our tolerance for hostile steps” and is “paving the way to World War III.”
On Wednesday, former Kremlin adviser Sergey Karaganov gave an interview to the Kommersant daily in which he urged the country to be prepared to use nuclear weapons in response to NATO attacks.
We have allowed the situation to deteriorate to a point when our adversaries believe we will not use nuclear weapons under any circumstances… Having nuclear weapons without being able to convince your enemies that you are ready to use them is suicide.
He added, “The main goal of a doctrine should be in convincing all current and future enemies that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons.” He added,
It’s high time we stated that any massive strikes against our territory give us a right to respond with a nuclear strike.
The massive escalation of the U.S.-NATO war against Russia forms the backdrop of Wednesday’s presidential debate in which Vice President Kamala Harris pledged that her candidacy would be dedicated to “ensuring we have the most lethal fighting force in the world” in order to defend America’s “standing” in the world.
https://mronline.org/2024/09/14/u-s-uk- ... de-russia/
*****
And with that post the pig is leaving the building. I shall be blissfully off line for a week. See you soon, unless our capitalist masters provoke WWIII.
I have not seen any comments on what I am about to describe in alternative media recently, not to mention in mainstream, which by definition only takes an interest in Vladimir Putin and could not care less about who is who in the Kremlin line-up below Number One. So much the worse for mainstream, because watching the musical chairs in Moscow is no less valuable open source intelligence on where policy is headed than it would be with respect to leading politicians and statesmen in London or Washington or Berlin.
As we all know, Sergei Shoigu, who is as close a friend to Vladimir Putin as anyone in Russia may be said to be, was this past spring unceremoniously removed from his position as Defense Minister, which he occupied for more than a decade, and was made Secretary of the Security Council; which took him out of the line of command and entrusted him with unclear responsibilities of an advisory nature. The reasons for his removal were fairly clear, namely a number of corruption scandals among his direct subordinates, which suggested that it was high time for cleaning house. Moreover, no one had forgotten how Shoigu and the head of the Russian general staff General Gerasimov had been denounced publicly for incompetence and corruption by head of the Wagner Group Pavel Prigozhin in the months before Prigozhin staged his insurrection.
In the intervening period, I would say not so much that Shoigu’s star has risen on its own as that the luster of his successor, Andrei Belousov, and of the aforementioned Valery Gerasimov has been tarnished by the stunning failure of the Russian military leadership to anticipate and prevent the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk Oblast, which has been a big embarrassment for the Putin government even if it is ending badly for Kiev. It should never have happened.
Now in the past several days we have seen proof positive that wind is once again in the sails of Mr. Shoigu. He was present, as a silent witness, to be sure, but present nonetheless as the senior representative of Russia’s siloviki (security and defense apparatus) when Putin received the directors of national security from the BRICS countries at the Konstantinovsky Palace outside Petersburg on Thursday. He was present at the sidelines meeting there of Putin and the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Presumably Belousov was not there because he was busy managing Russia’s largest global naval exercise in 30 years, Ocean 2024, with large scale Chinese naval participation and a great many foreign observers.
Now today’s news indicates that Mr Shoigu is in Pyongyang negotiating directly with the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. This can only be about the most serious defense issues, including further shipments of armaments to Moscow.
All of these moves of personnel on the chessboard are yet further proof of Vladimir Putin’s remarkable skills in Human Resources. He never completely discards any of his underperforming subordinates. They are not simply ‘fired’ in the spirit of Donald Trump. No they are held close to him so that their talents may be used at some future point as needed for the country’s greater benefit. And if I may be allowed a side glance at what The Donald was saying in his debate with Kamala, none of those removed from high positions is given the opportunity or the incentive to write a denunciation of The Boss.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/09/14/ ... -comeback/
******
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy (center) and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (right) are welcomed by Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha (left) for a meeting in Kiev, Ukraine on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. [Photo: AP Photo/Leon Neal]
U.S., UK to announce expansion of NATO weapons strikes inside Russia
Originally published: World Socialist Web Site (WSWS) on September 11, 2024 by Andre Damon (more by World Socialist Web Site (WSWS)) | (Posted Sep 14, 2024)
The United States and United Kingdom will imminently announce a major expansion of Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia using NATO weapons, the Guardian and Politico reported on Wednesday.
The announcement will come just days after Ukraine launched its largest drone barrage deep inside Russian territory on Monday, for the first time killing someone in Moscow and destroying dozens of homes in the capital city of a nuclear-armed state.
The move was discussed between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Minister David Lammy during their meetings with Ukrainian officials in Kiev on Wednesday.
When asked whether “Ukraine needs this long-range capability of striking into Russian territory,” Blinken replied that “we discussed long-range fires” with Ukrainian officials and that it would be further discussed when U.S. President Joe Biden meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Washington on Friday.
He continued,
From day one, as you heard me say, we have adjusted and adapted as needs have changed, as the battlefield has changed, and I have no doubt that we will continue to do so as this evolves.
Regarding the discussions, the Guardian reported,
British government sources indicated that a decision had already been made to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow cruise missiles on targets inside Russia, although it is not expected to be publicly announced on Friday when Starmer meets Biden in Washington DC.
When asked on Tuesday about allowing expanded strikes inside Russia, Biden replied,
We’re working that out now.
Politico cited Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin as saying he “would not be surprised” if the decision had already been made. The report continued,
Wednesday’s joint visit to Kyiv by Blinken and Lammy to meet Zelenskiy would not be taking place had there been no positive decision regarding Storm Shadow, the sources added.
The news outlet noted,
But it would be considered unnecessarily provocative to make a public announcement about long-range missiles in Kyiv.
In other words, the announcement will take place in a proverbial “Friday night news dump” to make the fact that NATO weapons will be raining down on Russian cities appear less “provocative” and to keep this development, which threatens to dramatically escalate the war, out of public consciousness.
In a statement on X, Lammy declared,
I am in Kyiv today with @SecBlinken to reiterate our united and ironclad support for Ukraine. We must stand up to Vladimir Putin’s imperialism. Our collective security depends on it.
Blinken framed the massively provocative action being prepared by the U.S. and UK as a response to an “escalation” by Russia. “And we’ve now seen this action of Russia, Russia acquiring ballistic missiles from Iran, which will further empower their aggression in Ukraine. So if anyone is taking escalatory action, it would appear to be Mr. Putin and Russia,” Blinken said.
On Monday, a group of leading House Republicans published a letter to President Biden calling for the lifting of all remaining restrictions on the use of NATO-provided weapons from Ukraine.
The letter demanded,
We write to urge you to lift the remaining restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided long-range systems, specifically Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), against legitimate military targets deeper inside Russia.
The letter declared that “concerns about escalation” have been “consistently invalidated since day one of the war.” It asserted,
Neither Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided weapons in Russia nor its military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region—the first foreign occupation of Russian territory since World War II—has triggered a Russian escalatory response.
Commenting on the reporting by the Guardian, Russian Senator Aleksey Pushkov wrote on Telegram,
The decision to strike Russian territory is clearly being prepared… There are too many conversations and hints about it for it to be reversed. Even if it has not been made yet, it looks like it will be a matter of days. The leak via The Guardian is not accidental. Public opinion is being prepared.
Anatoly Antonov, the Russian Ambassador to the U.S., declared that Washington “continues to test the limits of our tolerance for hostile steps” and is “paving the way to World War III.”
On Wednesday, former Kremlin adviser Sergey Karaganov gave an interview to the Kommersant daily in which he urged the country to be prepared to use nuclear weapons in response to NATO attacks.
We have allowed the situation to deteriorate to a point when our adversaries believe we will not use nuclear weapons under any circumstances… Having nuclear weapons without being able to convince your enemies that you are ready to use them is suicide.
He added, “The main goal of a doctrine should be in convincing all current and future enemies that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons.” He added,
It’s high time we stated that any massive strikes against our territory give us a right to respond with a nuclear strike.
The massive escalation of the U.S.-NATO war against Russia forms the backdrop of Wednesday’s presidential debate in which Vice President Kamala Harris pledged that her candidacy would be dedicated to “ensuring we have the most lethal fighting force in the world” in order to defend America’s “standing” in the world.
https://mronline.org/2024/09/14/u-s-uk- ... de-russia/
*****
And with that post the pig is leaving the building. I shall be blissfully off line for a week. See you soon, unless our capitalist masters provoke WWIII.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
The Guardian: Meta bans Russian state media outlets over ‘foreign interference activity’
September 20, 2024
The Guardian, 9/16/24
Facebook owner Meta said on Monday it was banning RT, Rossiya Segodnya and other Russian state media networks, alleging the outlets used deceptive tactics to carry out influence operations while evading detection on the social media company’s platforms.
“After careful consideration, we expanded our ongoing enforcement against Russian state media outlets. Rossiya Segodnya, RT and other related entities are now banned from our apps globally for foreign interference activity,” the company said in a written statement.
Enforcement of the ban would roll out over the coming days, it said. In addition to Facebook, Meta’s apps include Instagram, WhatsApp and Threads.
The Russian embassy did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
The ban marks a sharp escalation in actions by the world’s biggest social media company against Russian state media, after it spent years taking more limited steps such as blocking the outlets from running ads and reducing the reach of their posts.
It came after the US filed money-laundering charges earlier this month against two RT employees for what officials said was a scheme to hire a US company to produce online content to influence the 2024 election.
On Friday, US secretary of state Antony Blinken announced new sanctions against the Russian state-backed media company, formerly known as Russia Today, after new information gleaned from the outfit’s employees showed it was “functioning like a de facto arm of Russia’s intelligence apparatus”.
“Today, we’re exposing how Russia deploys similar tactics around the world,” Blinken said. “Russian weaponization of disinformation to subvert and polarize free and open societies extends to every part of the world.”
The Russian government in 2023 established a new unit in RT with “cyber operational capabilities and ties to Russian intelligence”, Blinken claimed, with the goal of spreading Russian influence in countries around the world through information operations, covert influence and military procurement.
Blinken said the US treasury would sanction three entities and two individuals tied to Rossiya Segodnya, the Russian state media company. The decision came after the announcement earlier this month that RT had funneled nearly $10m to conservative US influencers through a local company to produce videos meant to influence the outcome of the US presidential election in November.
Speaking to reporters from the state department on Friday, Blinken accused RT of crowdfunding weapons and equipment for Russian soldiers in Ukraine, including sniper rifles, weapon sights, body armor, night-vision equipment, drones, radio equipment and diesel generators. Some of the equipment, including the recon drones, could be sourced from China, he said.
Blinken also detailed how the organisation had targeted countries in Europe, Africa and North and South America. In particular, he said that RT leadership had coordinated directly with the Kremlin to target the October 2024 elections in Moldova, a former Soviet state in Europe where Russia has been accused of waging a hybrid war to exert greater influence. In particular, he said, RT’s leadership had “attempted to foment unrest in Moldova, likely with the specific aim of causing protests to turn violent”.
“RT is aware of and prepared to assist Russia’s plans to incite protests should the election not result in a Russia-preferred candidate winning the presidency,” Blinken said.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/09/the ... -activity/
******
The Prosecutor General's Office has cancelled more than 4,000 illegal rehabilitations
September 19, 17:27
The Prosecutor General's Office has cancelled more than 4,000 illegal rehabilitations
The Prosecutor General's Office reported on the interim results of its work to verify the validity of the carpet rehabilitations in the nineties: in two years, over 4 thousand decisions on rehabilitation of that time have been cancelled, sometimes by the prosecutor's office itself, sometimes through the courts. Punishers, SS men, collaborators, Banderovites, Vlasovites - the whole freak show, through which "Memorial" would now be roaring like a beluga, if it had not been dispersed.
At a time when the country and society allowed themselves to go mad, mistaking their madness for the onset of an era of freedom, practically any accomplices of the enemy were recognized in droves as victims of political repression, unless (and that is not a fact) they had proven blood on their hands. Now, when we have long ago and irreversibly sobered up, washing away what we smeared ourselves with in that ecstasy is much more than a symbolic gesture. This is, first of all, a statement that our attitude towards traitors has always been and will be as it should be. Which is especially relevant today.
And therefore, the Prosecutor General's Office, whose work in this area is still far from complete, would be right to publish the names of those who have been unreasonably rehabilitated now and continue to do so while the work is ongoing.
https://t.me/politadequate/9100 - zinc
This is actually proof of what historian Igor Pykhalov wrote about back in the 2000s when he raised the issue of illegal rehabilitations. As the example of his work shows, water wears away a stone.
Igor Pykhalov's video from 11 years ago. Time has proven him right. (Video at link.)
The very fact of rehabilitation cannot be a blanket proof of innocence, since in addition to illegal repressions against the innocent, there were also illegal rehabilitations of the guilty. Now this is an established fact, and the fact indicates the systemic nature of this problem.
And with this understanding, the picture of repressions and rehabilitations begins to look completely different. I hope the prosecutor's office will not stop and will continue to dig further, because many scumbags were rehabilitated under Khrushchev, Gorbachev and Yeltsin.
Judging by the categories indicated, now they are mainly checking the war and post-war period. The most interesting thing may begin when considering the pre-war period.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9392535.html
Foreign agent status prevents you from earning money
September 21, 12:19
Zemfira tried to get the court to remove her status as a foreign agent, which prevents her from making money from Russian citizens.
The court had previously sent Lazareva and Galkin to hell.
Russophobes are being beaten with the ruble.
They have spent too much abroad.
They want to lead their old way of life.
Of course, they have no shame or principles, so they pretend that they are not guilty of anything.
That is why they go to court and ask not to consider them foreign agents.
Because without the status of foreign agents, they will be able to bomb Russia again, and not pubs abroad.
Of course, their wishes diverge from objective reality.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9395505.html
When will YouTube be blocked
September 21, 11:10
YouTube blocking in Russia should be expected when domestic video hosting services establish a convenient system of content monetization (c) Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Chernyshev
1. At the moment, it is reported that the YouTube audience in the Russian Federation has decreased by 2 times since the beginning of the process of its "degradation".
2. The bulk of those who left have gone to RuTube, VKVideo and online cinemas.
3. A convenient system of content monetization for bloggers has not yet been established, which certainly keeps some bloggers from switching (not to be confused with gender)
4. In fact, only the shortcomings of existing video hosting services are holding back the closure of YouTube in the Russian Federation. As soon as these shortcomings are at least partially eliminated, YouTube will be immediately shut down. It's a matter of time.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9395227.html
Monument to the founder of the Cheka unveiled in Borisoglebsk
September 21, 15:18
In Borisoglebsk, a monument to the founder of the All-Russian Extraordinary Commission, Felix Edmundovich Dzerzhinsky, was officially unveiled near the FSB building.
Felix Edmundovich Dzerzhinsky is an outstanding figure of the early days of the USSR.
It was "Iron Felix" who created the All-Russian Extraordinary Commission for Combating Counter-Revolution and Sabotage (VChK), which became the foremother of the future KGB and FSB.
The memory of Dzerzhinsky was immortalized in Borisoglebsk a year and a half ago. It was then, at the beginning of 2023, that a monument appeared near the FSB department building.
Today, September 20, its official opening took place, which was attended by: First Deputy Governor of the Voronezh Region - Head of the Office of the Governor and the Government of the Voronezh Region Sergei Trukhachev, Head of the FSB Directorate of Russia for the Voronezh Region Major General Sergei Lyoshin, Chairman of the Voronezh Regional Duma Vladimir Netesov, Senator of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation Sergei Lukin, Head of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia for the Voronezh Region Lieutenant General of Police Mikhail Borodin, Head of the Zhukovsky and Gagarin Air Force Academy, Colonel General Gennady Zibrov.
zinc ( https://bloknotborisoglebsk.ru/news/pam ... v--1775238 )
The day will come and Iron Felix will return to Lubyanka.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9395872.html
Google Translator
******
Georgia on track for peace in the Caucasus – but there is still a lot to be done
Lucas Leiroz
September 20, 2024
Tbilisi is beginning to understand that the only way to maintain regional peace is through a policy of friendship with the Russian Federation, ignoring the war plans of the Collective West.
Unlike Armenia, Georgia seems to be choosing a good path for itself and the entire Caucasus region. Despite the West’s attempts to destabilize the country and implement anti-Russian policies, the Georgian government remains firm in its decision not to join the NATO-fueled madness. Not even the pro-EU lobby led by the country’s president seems to be enough to reverse the local people’s choice – represented by parliamentarians – to say “no” to war.
Along with the rejection of NATO, the first steps towards historical justice are beginning to emerge in Georgia. Recently, former Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said that Georgia should publicly apologize for initiating hostilities in the 2008 war. In addition, the official said that a “Georgian Nuremberg” should be established in the country to condemn politicians and military personnel involved in crimes during the regime of Mikhail Saakashvili – the then Georgian prime minister who, after losing the war, fled to Ukraine and began a political career under the Maidan regime.
Both Ivanishvili and the current leader of the Parliament, Irakli Kobakhidze, belong to the same party – the “Georgian Dream” – which has been accused of being “pro-Russian” simply because it advocates a neutral position in the current conflict between Moscow and NATO. The main accusers are supporters of President Salome Zourabichvili, who was recently named by Russian intelligence as the main agent in a mobilization to generate a regime change operation in Georgia.
Zourabishvili is the leading figure in the opposition to the ruling parliamentary coalition. A foreigner herself on Georgian soil, Zourabishvili attempted to veto Georgia’s recent law restricting foreign agents, fearing that it would diminish Western influence in the country. The bill was approved by lawmakers despite the president’s opposition, which raised serious concerns in Western countries.
The West fears that Georgia will become less vulnerable to its influence due to restrictions on the work of foreign NGOs. As some Russian analysts point out, there is no “anti-Western” intention in Georgia, and many of its politicians’ statements are simply an electoral maneuver. However, the U.S. and Europe do not seem willing to accept even the minimum of sovereignty for Georgia, demanding absolute subservience.
According to NATO’s war plans, Georgia was supposed to attack the breakaway republics in order to open a second front in the war against Russia. Although revanchist sentiments and Russophobia are indeed strong in Georgia, the current government is not willing to engage in a suicidal conflict just to satisfy NATO’s irrational intentions. In practice, the Georgian government wants to reconcile two contradictory positions: to maintain a foreign policy aligned with the West, but to preserve a minimum of sovereignty so as not to engage in suicidal wars.
In addition to all these factors, parliamentary elections are coming up. In October, Georgians will elect their new representatives to Parliament. The Prime Minister has already warned about the possibility of electoral interference by foreign agents, in a clear attempt to explain the reality of Western interventionism. In recent times, several Western maneuvers to change the regime in Georgia have failed, which is why the West is expected to increase its aggressiveness from now on, investing in direct electoral sabotage.
Furthermore, if it fails to change the regime through elections, the West could simply resort to using military violence. Thousands of Georgian neo-Nazi militants are ready to obey any NATO order. Many of these militants even have real combat experience, as they are involved in anti-Russian hostilities. For example, the participation of the Georgian militia “Caucasian Legion” in the invasion of Kursk, where fascist mercenaries tortured and murdered several Russian civilians and prisoners of war, was recently reported.
Georgia will hardly be able to face all Western threats without engaging in deep security cooperation with the Russian Federation, including on the level of military and intelligence assistance. The first step towards peace has already been taken by the Georgians by saying “no” to NATO’s request to open a second front against Russia. However, there is still a lot to be done. Georgia needs to overcome revanchism and Russophobia and radically change its foreign policy, aligning itself with the country that is most committed to preserving peace in the Caucasus.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... -lot-done/
September 20, 2024
The Guardian, 9/16/24
Facebook owner Meta said on Monday it was banning RT, Rossiya Segodnya and other Russian state media networks, alleging the outlets used deceptive tactics to carry out influence operations while evading detection on the social media company’s platforms.
“After careful consideration, we expanded our ongoing enforcement against Russian state media outlets. Rossiya Segodnya, RT and other related entities are now banned from our apps globally for foreign interference activity,” the company said in a written statement.
Enforcement of the ban would roll out over the coming days, it said. In addition to Facebook, Meta’s apps include Instagram, WhatsApp and Threads.
The Russian embassy did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
The ban marks a sharp escalation in actions by the world’s biggest social media company against Russian state media, after it spent years taking more limited steps such as blocking the outlets from running ads and reducing the reach of their posts.
It came after the US filed money-laundering charges earlier this month against two RT employees for what officials said was a scheme to hire a US company to produce online content to influence the 2024 election.
On Friday, US secretary of state Antony Blinken announced new sanctions against the Russian state-backed media company, formerly known as Russia Today, after new information gleaned from the outfit’s employees showed it was “functioning like a de facto arm of Russia’s intelligence apparatus”.
“Today, we’re exposing how Russia deploys similar tactics around the world,” Blinken said. “Russian weaponization of disinformation to subvert and polarize free and open societies extends to every part of the world.”
The Russian government in 2023 established a new unit in RT with “cyber operational capabilities and ties to Russian intelligence”, Blinken claimed, with the goal of spreading Russian influence in countries around the world through information operations, covert influence and military procurement.
Blinken said the US treasury would sanction three entities and two individuals tied to Rossiya Segodnya, the Russian state media company. The decision came after the announcement earlier this month that RT had funneled nearly $10m to conservative US influencers through a local company to produce videos meant to influence the outcome of the US presidential election in November.
Speaking to reporters from the state department on Friday, Blinken accused RT of crowdfunding weapons and equipment for Russian soldiers in Ukraine, including sniper rifles, weapon sights, body armor, night-vision equipment, drones, radio equipment and diesel generators. Some of the equipment, including the recon drones, could be sourced from China, he said.
Blinken also detailed how the organisation had targeted countries in Europe, Africa and North and South America. In particular, he said that RT leadership had coordinated directly with the Kremlin to target the October 2024 elections in Moldova, a former Soviet state in Europe where Russia has been accused of waging a hybrid war to exert greater influence. In particular, he said, RT’s leadership had “attempted to foment unrest in Moldova, likely with the specific aim of causing protests to turn violent”.
“RT is aware of and prepared to assist Russia’s plans to incite protests should the election not result in a Russia-preferred candidate winning the presidency,” Blinken said.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/09/the ... -activity/
******
The Prosecutor General's Office has cancelled more than 4,000 illegal rehabilitations
September 19, 17:27
The Prosecutor General's Office has cancelled more than 4,000 illegal rehabilitations
The Prosecutor General's Office reported on the interim results of its work to verify the validity of the carpet rehabilitations in the nineties: in two years, over 4 thousand decisions on rehabilitation of that time have been cancelled, sometimes by the prosecutor's office itself, sometimes through the courts. Punishers, SS men, collaborators, Banderovites, Vlasovites - the whole freak show, through which "Memorial" would now be roaring like a beluga, if it had not been dispersed.
At a time when the country and society allowed themselves to go mad, mistaking their madness for the onset of an era of freedom, practically any accomplices of the enemy were recognized in droves as victims of political repression, unless (and that is not a fact) they had proven blood on their hands. Now, when we have long ago and irreversibly sobered up, washing away what we smeared ourselves with in that ecstasy is much more than a symbolic gesture. This is, first of all, a statement that our attitude towards traitors has always been and will be as it should be. Which is especially relevant today.
And therefore, the Prosecutor General's Office, whose work in this area is still far from complete, would be right to publish the names of those who have been unreasonably rehabilitated now and continue to do so while the work is ongoing.
https://t.me/politadequate/9100 - zinc
This is actually proof of what historian Igor Pykhalov wrote about back in the 2000s when he raised the issue of illegal rehabilitations. As the example of his work shows, water wears away a stone.
Igor Pykhalov's video from 11 years ago. Time has proven him right. (Video at link.)
The very fact of rehabilitation cannot be a blanket proof of innocence, since in addition to illegal repressions against the innocent, there were also illegal rehabilitations of the guilty. Now this is an established fact, and the fact indicates the systemic nature of this problem.
And with this understanding, the picture of repressions and rehabilitations begins to look completely different. I hope the prosecutor's office will not stop and will continue to dig further, because many scumbags were rehabilitated under Khrushchev, Gorbachev and Yeltsin.
Judging by the categories indicated, now they are mainly checking the war and post-war period. The most interesting thing may begin when considering the pre-war period.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9392535.html
Foreign agent status prevents you from earning money
September 21, 12:19
Zemfira tried to get the court to remove her status as a foreign agent, which prevents her from making money from Russian citizens.
The court had previously sent Lazareva and Galkin to hell.
Russophobes are being beaten with the ruble.
They have spent too much abroad.
They want to lead their old way of life.
Of course, they have no shame or principles, so they pretend that they are not guilty of anything.
That is why they go to court and ask not to consider them foreign agents.
Because without the status of foreign agents, they will be able to bomb Russia again, and not pubs abroad.
Of course, their wishes diverge from objective reality.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9395505.html
When will YouTube be blocked
September 21, 11:10
YouTube blocking in Russia should be expected when domestic video hosting services establish a convenient system of content monetization (c) Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Chernyshev
1. At the moment, it is reported that the YouTube audience in the Russian Federation has decreased by 2 times since the beginning of the process of its "degradation".
2. The bulk of those who left have gone to RuTube, VKVideo and online cinemas.
3. A convenient system of content monetization for bloggers has not yet been established, which certainly keeps some bloggers from switching (not to be confused with gender)
4. In fact, only the shortcomings of existing video hosting services are holding back the closure of YouTube in the Russian Federation. As soon as these shortcomings are at least partially eliminated, YouTube will be immediately shut down. It's a matter of time.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9395227.html
Monument to the founder of the Cheka unveiled in Borisoglebsk
September 21, 15:18
In Borisoglebsk, a monument to the founder of the All-Russian Extraordinary Commission, Felix Edmundovich Dzerzhinsky, was officially unveiled near the FSB building.
Felix Edmundovich Dzerzhinsky is an outstanding figure of the early days of the USSR.
It was "Iron Felix" who created the All-Russian Extraordinary Commission for Combating Counter-Revolution and Sabotage (VChK), which became the foremother of the future KGB and FSB.
The memory of Dzerzhinsky was immortalized in Borisoglebsk a year and a half ago. It was then, at the beginning of 2023, that a monument appeared near the FSB department building.
Today, September 20, its official opening took place, which was attended by: First Deputy Governor of the Voronezh Region - Head of the Office of the Governor and the Government of the Voronezh Region Sergei Trukhachev, Head of the FSB Directorate of Russia for the Voronezh Region Major General Sergei Lyoshin, Chairman of the Voronezh Regional Duma Vladimir Netesov, Senator of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation Sergei Lukin, Head of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia for the Voronezh Region Lieutenant General of Police Mikhail Borodin, Head of the Zhukovsky and Gagarin Air Force Academy, Colonel General Gennady Zibrov.
zinc ( https://bloknotborisoglebsk.ru/news/pam ... v--1775238 )
The day will come and Iron Felix will return to Lubyanka.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9395872.html
Google Translator
******
Georgia on track for peace in the Caucasus – but there is still a lot to be done
Lucas Leiroz
September 20, 2024
Tbilisi is beginning to understand that the only way to maintain regional peace is through a policy of friendship with the Russian Federation, ignoring the war plans of the Collective West.
Unlike Armenia, Georgia seems to be choosing a good path for itself and the entire Caucasus region. Despite the West’s attempts to destabilize the country and implement anti-Russian policies, the Georgian government remains firm in its decision not to join the NATO-fueled madness. Not even the pro-EU lobby led by the country’s president seems to be enough to reverse the local people’s choice – represented by parliamentarians – to say “no” to war.
Along with the rejection of NATO, the first steps towards historical justice are beginning to emerge in Georgia. Recently, former Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said that Georgia should publicly apologize for initiating hostilities in the 2008 war. In addition, the official said that a “Georgian Nuremberg” should be established in the country to condemn politicians and military personnel involved in crimes during the regime of Mikhail Saakashvili – the then Georgian prime minister who, after losing the war, fled to Ukraine and began a political career under the Maidan regime.
Both Ivanishvili and the current leader of the Parliament, Irakli Kobakhidze, belong to the same party – the “Georgian Dream” – which has been accused of being “pro-Russian” simply because it advocates a neutral position in the current conflict between Moscow and NATO. The main accusers are supporters of President Salome Zourabichvili, who was recently named by Russian intelligence as the main agent in a mobilization to generate a regime change operation in Georgia.
Zourabishvili is the leading figure in the opposition to the ruling parliamentary coalition. A foreigner herself on Georgian soil, Zourabishvili attempted to veto Georgia’s recent law restricting foreign agents, fearing that it would diminish Western influence in the country. The bill was approved by lawmakers despite the president’s opposition, which raised serious concerns in Western countries.
The West fears that Georgia will become less vulnerable to its influence due to restrictions on the work of foreign NGOs. As some Russian analysts point out, there is no “anti-Western” intention in Georgia, and many of its politicians’ statements are simply an electoral maneuver. However, the U.S. and Europe do not seem willing to accept even the minimum of sovereignty for Georgia, demanding absolute subservience.
According to NATO’s war plans, Georgia was supposed to attack the breakaway republics in order to open a second front in the war against Russia. Although revanchist sentiments and Russophobia are indeed strong in Georgia, the current government is not willing to engage in a suicidal conflict just to satisfy NATO’s irrational intentions. In practice, the Georgian government wants to reconcile two contradictory positions: to maintain a foreign policy aligned with the West, but to preserve a minimum of sovereignty so as not to engage in suicidal wars.
In addition to all these factors, parliamentary elections are coming up. In October, Georgians will elect their new representatives to Parliament. The Prime Minister has already warned about the possibility of electoral interference by foreign agents, in a clear attempt to explain the reality of Western interventionism. In recent times, several Western maneuvers to change the regime in Georgia have failed, which is why the West is expected to increase its aggressiveness from now on, investing in direct electoral sabotage.
Furthermore, if it fails to change the regime through elections, the West could simply resort to using military violence. Thousands of Georgian neo-Nazi militants are ready to obey any NATO order. Many of these militants even have real combat experience, as they are involved in anti-Russian hostilities. For example, the participation of the Georgian militia “Caucasian Legion” in the invasion of Kursk, where fascist mercenaries tortured and murdered several Russian civilians and prisoners of war, was recently reported.
Georgia will hardly be able to face all Western threats without engaging in deep security cooperation with the Russian Federation, including on the level of military and intelligence assistance. The first step towards peace has already been taken by the Georgians by saying “no” to NATO’s request to open a second front against Russia. However, there is still a lot to be done. Georgia needs to overcome revanchism and Russophobia and radically change its foreign policy, aligning itself with the country that is most committed to preserving peace in the Caucasus.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... -lot-done/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
Russia Is Furious That China’s TikTok Just Deleted RT & Sputnik’s Accounts
Andrew Korybko
Sep 22, 2024
Sputnik described this as a “globalist attack” against Russia, accused TikTok of being “co-opted” by the US’” deep state”, and even shared a meme on X of their brand shooting TikTok’s.
The US declared war against Russia’s publicly financed media earlier this month after it claimed that they’re functioning as clandestine arms of that country’s intelligence services and then promised that it’ll apply the utmost pressure upon all members of the international community to ban them too. Few could have foreseen that China, which is one of Russia’s main strategic partners, would follow suit by having TikTok delete RT and Sputnik’s accounts but that’s exactly what just happened over the weekend.
Sputnik reacted with fury by describing this as a “globalist attack” against Russia, accusing TikTok of being “co-opted” by the US’ “deep state”, and even sharing a meme on X of their brand shooting TikTok’s, thus expressing how upset Russia is at being backstabbed by China in the global information war. It’s one thing for Western platforms like Meta to ban Russia’s flagship international media and another entirely for a strategic partner like China to do the same, which is absolutely unacceptable.
Russia’s response will likely remain limited to speaking through Sputnik since the complex interdependencies between them are too important for it to risk ruining their relations by escalating this dispute, however, but its diplomats might still give China’s a tongue lashing behind closed doors. TikTok also just argued in court last week that the US Government’s proposed ban of their app would have a “staggering” impact on free speech, yet then it hypocritically deleted RT and Sputnik’s accounts.
This social media platform plays a powerful role in shaping popular discourse, but Russia’s top publicly financed international media companies are now unable to win hearts and minds through these means after what just happened, which represents a major blow to their country’s soft power strategy. Even worse, it raises larger questions about China’s overall reliability in the face of American pressure, which a growing number in Russia have begun asking after several unexpected developments this year.
A Chinese energy company agreed to comply with US sanctions against Russia’s Artic LNG 2 project and then a bunch of Chinese banks prohibited payments to and from Russia. Interspersed between these two was Russia and China failing to resolve their pricing dispute over the Power of Siberia II pipeline during Putin’s visit. What he and Xi had previously declared to be their “no-limits partnership” very clearly has some real limits to it, and they’re increasingly influenced by American pressure.
China’s direct complex interdependencies with the US account for these scandalous policies, and considering that China and Russia also have such interdependencies between them, it can therefore be said that Russia has indirect complex interdependencies with the US that lean heavily in the US’ favor. This was explained more here and here when analyzing the resumption of Russian-IMF relations, but the relevance to TikTok deleting RT and Sputnik’s accounts is that China isn’t as sovereign as some thought.
Interestingly, despite India being in a similarly direct relationship of complex interdependence with the US as China is and even having close military ties with the US too, India refused to comply with US pressure upon it to ban RT and Sputnik’s national hubs. Reports also suggest that their financial ties have expanded to the point where clandestine channels have now been created for facilitating the export of dual-use technologies to Russia behind the US’ back in order to avoid secondary sanctions.
India’s policies stand in stark contrast to China’s, whose flagship social media platform TikTok just deleted RT and Sputnik’s accounts while its banks are too scared of secondary sanctions to continue business as usual with Russia, thus upending popular expectations. The Mainstream Media (MSM) and the Alt-Media Community (AMC) have hyped up China’s systemic rivalry with the US, each in advance of their own ideological agenda, but it turns out that ties between those two aren’t as terrible as many thought.
Their direct complex interdependencies have been weaponized by the US to coerce China into distancing itself from Russia, both publicly with respect to what TikTok just did as well as behind the scenes with regard to its banks’ voluntarily compliance with American sanctions. China isn’t willing to bear the costs that the US would impose upon it for defiantly standing in solidarity with Russia like India has done, the latter of which correctly wagered that it’s too important to the US to be punished like China would be.
The US is still pressuring India on domestic and regional issues as correspondingly explained here and here, however, so there was never any guarantee that the US wouldn’t punish India like it would punish China. India therefore took a calculated risk that China is too fearful to consider, which speaks volumes about their real sovereignty when it comes to defying American pressure to distance themselves from Russia upon threats to weaponize their complex interdependencies to that end.
The MSM might exaggerate the trouble that TikTok’s deletion of RT and Sputnik’s accounts caused for the Sino-Russo Entente while the AMC might predictably ignore or downplay this, each in advance of their own ideological agenda once again, so observers shouldn’t take their reporting about this at face value. The fact is that this represents a disturbing pattern of behavior from China which proves that it’s much more amenable to American pressure than either of those two media camps have made it seem.
China and the US are still systemic rivals, but the complex interdependencies between them have successfully been weaponized by the US to harm Russia, which isn’t the case with India. Even though India isn’t a systemic rival of the US like China is, it’s displayed much more sovereignty when it comes to its ties with Russia than China has, which should give observers a lot to think about. The honest among them will reconsider what they took for granted about China, while the dishonest won’t dare to do so.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-i ... nas-tiktok
(Little Andy never misses a chance to throw sand on the Chinese. Is it cause they're commies or is it just old fashioned Russian chauvinism?)
Armenia Isn’t All That Important To Iran’s Economic & National Security
Andrew Korybko
Sep 22, 2024
Iran has ulterior motives for opposing the Zangezur Corridor.
Iran’s continued opposition to the Zangezur Corridor, which was earlier analyzed here and here, is predicated on the assumption that Armenia is very important to its economic and national security. The thinking goes that they’d be harmed if Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye took control of that corridor, which could then cut Iran off from Europe and lead to the emergence of new threats on the border. Few have reflected on the merits of these claims, however, otherwise they’d have realized how shallow they are.
There was only a paltry €4.7 billion worth of trade between the EU and Iran last year, which approximately equates to 1.3% of the country’s $401 billion GDP last year. While it’s unclear how much of that was conducted via Georgia-Armenia, whatever it was had to traverse through the latter’s mountainous Syunik Province to reach the Islamic Republic. It’s cost-prohibitive to build a railway through there so logistics couldn’t ever realistically be scaled up across that route if trade grew.
In that scenario, and if they decide to conduct more of it through multimodal means across the South Caucasus instead of by sea, then it would make sense to do so via Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave after modernizing its existing rail infrastructure that Syunik Province lacks. This insight suggests that the future of their trade would therefore have to involve Azerbaijan, thereby discrediting the claim that Syunik Province is indispensable to Iran’s economic security.
Seeing as how Azerbaijan would also profit from this through customs duties, there’s no reason to suspect that it would cut off Iranian-EU trade, especially since that could provoke the West’s wrath. The only scenario in which that might happen would be in the event of another war with Armenia or a future one with Iran, in which case Azerbaijan could easily sever Syunik Province if trade hasn’t yet been diversified across Nakhchivan by then, or truckers might just avoid that route on their own.
Segueing into counterarguments against the claim that the worst-case scenario of Azerbaijani and/or Turkish control of Syunik Province outside of a war with Iran would harm the latter’s national security, it’s enough to know that the border with Armenia is a measly 40 kilometers to realize how ridiculous this is. Iran already has a 689-kilometer-long border with Azerbaijan and a 534-kilometer-long one with Turkiye for a total of 1223 kilometers so an expansion of that by 40 kilometers would only make it 3.27% longer.
Whatever security threats that Iran perceives to stem from those two therefore wouldn’t be exacerbated in that worst-case scenario. At the absolute most, it might briefly embolden some Azeri separatists in Iran’s northern regions, but they’ve stirred trouble before only to always be defeated so there’s no reason to expect them to finally succeed in that event. This observation proves that Iran’s national security wouldn’t be adversely affected if Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye controlled the Zangezur Corridor.
While it’s true that this scenario could facilitate Turkiye’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power if it was followed by the creation of a customs union with the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), most of whom are in Central Asia, this wouldn’t automatically pose a threat to Iran. The Islamic Republic would just have to make its own exports to those markets more competitive through whatever means it decides upon, plus Iran is already rising as a Eurasian Great Power in its own right, so everything would balance out.
Considering all this, it’s categorically untrue that Armenia is supposedly very important for Iran’s economic and national security, thus leading to the conclusion that ulterior motives such as elite consolidation or pro-Western signaling are behind its continued opposition to the Zangezur Corridor. Iran would therefore do well to explain the real motivations behind this policy since the explanations put forth by its media surrogates don’t add up and are easily discredited as proven by this analysis.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/armenia- ... portant-to
(One gets the sense that Andy doesn't like Russia getting cozy with any of the US's other targets and prefers that Russia hang alone.)
******
Georgia on track for peace in the Caucasus – but there is still a lot to be done
Lucas Leiroz
September 20, 2024
Tbilisi is beginning to understand that the only way to maintain regional peace is through a policy of friendship with the Russian Federation, ignoring the war plans of the Collective West.
Unlike Armenia, Georgia seems to be choosing a good path for itself and the entire Caucasus region. Despite the West’s attempts to destabilize the country and implement anti-Russian policies, the Georgian government remains firm in its decision not to join the NATO-fueled madness. Not even the pro-EU lobby led by the country’s president seems to be enough to reverse the local people’s choice – represented by parliamentarians – to say “no” to war.
Along with the rejection of NATO, the first steps towards historical justice are beginning to emerge in Georgia. Recently, former Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said that Georgia should publicly apologize for initiating hostilities in the 2008 war. In addition, the official said that a “Georgian Nuremberg” should be established in the country to condemn politicians and military personnel involved in crimes during the regime of Mikhail Saakashvili – the then Georgian prime minister who, after losing the war, fled to Ukraine and began a political career under the Maidan regime.
Both Ivanishvili and the current leader of the Parliament, Irakli Kobakhidze, belong to the same party – the “Georgian Dream” – which has been accused of being “pro-Russian” simply because it advocates a neutral position in the current conflict between Moscow and NATO. The main accusers are supporters of President Salome Zourabichvili, who was recently named by Russian intelligence as the main agent in a mobilization to generate a regime change operation in Georgia.
Zourabishvili is the leading figure in the opposition to the ruling parliamentary coalition. A foreigner herself on Georgian soil, Zourabishvili attempted to veto Georgia’s recent law restricting foreign agents, fearing that it would diminish Western influence in the country. The bill was approved by lawmakers despite the president’s opposition, which raised serious concerns in Western countries.
The West fears that Georgia will become less vulnerable to its influence due to restrictions on the work of foreign NGOs. As some Russian analysts point out, there is no “anti-Western” intention in Georgia, and many of its politicians’ statements are simply an electoral maneuver. However, the U.S. and Europe do not seem willing to accept even the minimum of sovereignty for Georgia, demanding absolute subservience.
According to NATO’s war plans, Georgia was supposed to attack the breakaway republics in order to open a second front in the war against Russia. Although revanchist sentiments and Russophobia are indeed strong in Georgia, the current government is not willing to engage in a suicidal conflict just to satisfy NATO’s irrational intentions. In practice, the Georgian government wants to reconcile two contradictory positions: to maintain a foreign policy aligned with the West, but to preserve a minimum of sovereignty so as not to engage in suicidal wars.
In addition to all these factors, parliamentary elections are coming up. In October, Georgians will elect their new representatives to Parliament. The Prime Minister has already warned about the possibility of electoral interference by foreign agents, in a clear attempt to explain the reality of Western interventionism. In recent times, several Western maneuvers to change the regime in Georgia have failed, which is why the West is expected to increase its aggressiveness from now on, investing in direct electoral sabotage.
Furthermore, if it fails to change the regime through elections, the West could simply resort to using military violence. Thousands of Georgian neo-Nazi militants are ready to obey any NATO order. Many of these militants even have real combat experience, as they are involved in anti-Russian hostilities. For example, the participation of the Georgian militia “Caucasian Legion” in the invasion of Kursk, where fascist mercenaries tortured and murdered several Russian civilians and prisoners of war, was recently reported.
Georgia will hardly be able to face all Western threats without engaging in deep security cooperation with the Russian Federation, including on the level of military and intelligence assistance. The first step towards peace has already been taken by the Georgians by saying “no” to NATO’s request to open a second front against Russia. However, there is still a lot to be done. Georgia needs to overcome revanchism and Russophobia and radically change its foreign policy, aligning itself with the country that is most committed to preserving peace in the Caucasus.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... -lot-done/
******
Hamster and hamsters
September 22, 12:26
Hamster and hamsters
"They cheated me! They cheated me with the hamster!" - couch crypto investors around the world are outraged by the payouts for months of "hamster tapping" - playing Hamster Combat.
The average player will receive from $15 to $50 for six (!!!) months of tapping, buying cards, watching videos and stupid mini-games. Moreover, you can immediately withdraw only 10% of what you earned. But many will not receive even this penny - they were deprived of payments for "cheating" - tricks for developing the hamster without wasting time.
Butts are burning all over the world ( https://t.me/banksta/58125 ), but most of all - in our vast Motherland, Georgia, Turkey, Armenia and the remains of Ukraine. Curious geography, huh?
Before this, millions of players convinced themselves and others that they were not burning hours and days of their lives, but "investing in future wealth" - telling examples with "bitcoin, which no one believed in" and successful tokens NotCoin and DOGS.
People seriously (!!!) counted and discussed how many loans they would close and buy smartphones (and even cars) after the start of payments. True, some ended up in a real mental hospital because of "Hamster" (proof ( https://www.mentoday.ru/life/news/10-06 ... zarabotat/) ) or lost their jobs (proof ( https://harant.ru/questions/q-46437/). )
Actually, as with any MMM, the hamster sect convinces everyone "they definitely won't screw you over in the new season." For reference - in the new season, the users who have accumulated millions will have to earn "crystals", but to do this, they must strictly and rigidly complete all the tasks (watch videos, play, etc.).
Although some are already beginning to guess:
"Blue crystals can be earned by completing ALL mandatory tasks and buying cards. It seems that we are being accustomed to new game mechanics! Now you won't be able to slack off, you'll have to participate in all tasks several times a day, watch all the videos! In short, they want to make an army of trained Internet hamsters out of us, who will watch, click and write everything they need to!"
"It was known in advance that the tappers will receive about 1% of the volume of issued crypto. The remaining 99% will be sold by the organizers," - reports "Banksta ( https://t.me/banksta/58124) ". The profit of the game itself (owned ( https://neolurk.org/wiki/Hamster_Kombat ) "Russian offshore") is several million dollars a day.
https://t.me/glavmedia/359914 - zinc
After all, this has never happened before...
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9397036.html
Thomas Cantacuzene goes to Moscow
September 22, 18:44
Thomas Cantacuzene goes to Moscow
In May 1630, Thomas Kantakouzenos, the ambassador of the Turkish Sultan, arrived in Moscow. Thomas himself was an Orthodox Greek "Phanariot", that is, a Byzantine and was officially considered a descendant of the emperors of the Second Rome (there are different opinions on this matter, but, apparently, he was some distant offspring of the former "basileusses").
The Orthodox ambassador of the Islamic Caliph came to Moscow to negotiate joint military actions against Poland. After all, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was then the main and most dangerous enemy of Russia. The Polish King Vladislav, by inheritance from the upheavals of our Time of Troubles, still officially lays claim to the Moscow throne. Soon, in two years, Russia will begin the not very successful "Smolensk War". And the Turks will be our informal ally - they will also fight with the lords at the borders of modern Moldova.
In short, in the spring of 1630, the Turkish ambassador was a welcome guest in Russia – especially since it was already the third diplomatic visit to Moscow for a descendant of Byzantine emperors. But for now we will not talk about geopolitics, but about personal “politics”…
In the retinue of Ambassador Cantacuzinos, a certain “Turkishman” Gadzhi Mugla Tersen-“areiz” arrived. The last term – “areiz” – is how the scribes of the Ambassadorial Office wrote down the Turkish “reis”, which in the language of our ancestors of the 17th century was translated as “shipman”, and today would sound like a captain.
Gadzhi Mugla, as follows from the name, was a Muslim. And he came to look for his sons – they were captured by the Don Cossacks during a naval raid.
Indeed, in 1625 – despite the Tsar’s direct prohibition that “they should not provoke the Turkish sultan and should not go to sea” – the Don Cossack chieftains set out on an annual sea raid. Off the coast of Crimea, they ravaged the city of Gözlev (future Evpatoria), and then, having united with their colleagues from the Zaporizhian Sich, they sailed to the opposite shore of the Black Sea to plunder Trebizond. They plundered more or less successfully, but not without losses.
On the way back, the Don Cossacks and the Zaporizhian Cossacks clearly did not share everything. The Zaporizhian Cossacks stabbed one of the Don chieftains to death during an argument about the intricacies of naval tactics and strategy… But they managed to avoid a major discord, and the joint Cossack flotilla captured many Turkish merchant ships off the coast of the Ottoman Empire.
On their retreat, somewhere near the mouth of the Danube, the Cossacks were battered by Turkish galleys. The domestic romantics of power commerce fought back, not without losses. It was during this campaign that the young sons of the "shipman Gadzhi Mugla" - in a Russian record from four centuries ago, "Sadiy da Agmut" - ended up in Cossack captivity.
The Ottoman who arrived with the embassy was clearly rich and had conducted a private investigation before traveling to Moscow. He knew that his sons had been bought on the Don by the "Moscow merchant" Fyodor Tsyplyatnikov.
Since there was peace between the Tsar and the Sultan (they were friends, I remind you, against the Poles), since the Don Cossacks' campaigns against the Turks "for zipuns" were prohibited by the Tsar, the Turk filed an official petition through the Ambassadorial Prikaz to search for his sons.
The case was handled by the Discharge Department.
In Moscow, they quickly found the "merchant of the Vegetable Row" Fyodor Tsyplyatnikov. He said that in 1628 he bought "Turkish captives" "in the Cherkassky town" on the Don: one "little Akhmetka", two "Turkish girls" and a "Turkish woman".
That same Akhmetka was one of the sons of the "shipman Gadzhi Mugla", he was 12 years old and they bought him for 12 rubles. The Turkish "girls Fatmashka and Angudunka" were bought for 13 and 15 rubles (the second one was obviously prettier), and the Turkish woman for 12 rubles. Well, it's logical - girls have always been more expensive than men and women. The prices, by the way, were decent - a good peasant horse in the center of Russia then cost 2 rubles, and a good house only 10.
"Little Akhmetka" on the way from the Don, "the merchant of the Vegetable Row" Fyodor Tsyplyatnikov sold without profit, for the same 12 rubles, to the governor of the city of Yelets, Prince Yuri Andreevich Zvenigorodsky (by the way, a Rurikovich and close associate of the first tsar from the Romanov dynasty).
But "the girl Fatmashka" in Moscow "the merchant of the Vegetable Row" profitably resold to "the German merchant Ivan Nikitin" for 30 rubles (that is, he received 17 rubles in profit!).
Another girl and a woman remained in the Tsyplyatnikov family, and the girl, "the girl Angudunka" was baptized, she became Anna and was married to a certain Timofey.
Timofey, however, was also a similar Turkish captive – he was captured by the Cossacks in 1621, when he was sailing with his father from Istanbul to Azov. On the way they were intercepted by the Cossacks, the Turkish father was killed, and the son was sold. Only Business, Nothing Personal – from that side there are absolutely mirror stories, only instead of Don and Zaporozhian Cossacks there were Crimean and Kuban Tatars. Well, the flow of “captives” to Asian markets was more numerous than to Moscow ones – at least because Ottoman Asia was then much richer than Muscovite Russia…
In the course of further investigation on the petition from the Turkish “shipbuilder” it turned out that his second son – “the little Turk Sadyk” – was bought by “the head of Yelets Ivan Temiryazev”. He bought it for 13 rubles 60 kopecks (at that time in Russia kopecks were considered a "Moscow account", inherited from the Golden Horde - that's why in the documents of the 17th century, of course, not 60 kopecks, but 20 altyns). By that time, the already 16-year-old "Turkish man" was summoned to Moscow. It turned out that he was no longer a "Turkish man", but a baptized Orthodox person and even taught to write in Russian (13 rubles 60 kopecks is quite a solid sum, it seems that Ivan Temiryazev clearly bought the boy with the expectation of investing in him knowledge of literacy).
In short, the Turkish pope was denied satisfaction of the petition - according to all the laws and concepts of Muscovite Russia of that era, those baptized into Orthodoxy cannot be given or extradited or sold to "infidels". If those boys had officially kept the Islamic faith, the conversation would have been different; most likely they would have given it to their father when he reimbursed the expenses of the bona fide buyers.
But it is clear that children who were "captured" at the age of 11-12 could hardly have consciously kept their former religion.
In short, the story is almost common for that era. For the Turkish Pope, it is very sad. But for the former "little Turchenin Sadyk" it is not so sad - a literate person there and then is a very enviable social position in any class situation.
P.S. But for whom this story is especially sad is for the descendant of the Byzantine emperors, the ambassador Thomas Kantakouzenos.
During his next diplomatic visit to Russia, he and his ambassadorial retinue, which also consisted mainly of Orthodox "Greeks", were killed by those same Don Cossacks.
In justification of the murder of the diplomats, the brave (really very, very brave, this was just the beginning of the extremely heroic "Azov siege" without jokes), but not at all sinless atamans of the Don came up with a creative idea, even for that era bordering on childish naivety - they wrote to Moscow that the murdered ambassador and his retinue were engaged in witchcraft: "They did great mischief with evil magic... they cast elegant spells on our camps."
Well, and the valuables and documents of the embassy, according to the Cossacks, "were destroyed by some unknown means."
PPS However, the Cantacuzines were used to such deaths. The father and uncle of Thomas Cantacuzene, killed by the Cossacks, were once executed by the Ottoman sultan at the end of the 16th century. So they were used to losing their heads. The era, sir. Harsh.
https://t.me/alter_vij/3205 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9397977.html
Google Translator
******
Russian and Western Nuclear Industries Remain Interdependent
Posted on September 22, 2024 by Lambert Strether
Lambert here: What could go wrong. Although 3% a year through 2026 seems like rather a short time-frame. Readers?
By Tsvetana Paraskova, a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. Originally published at OilPrice.com.
The nuclear energy industries in Russia and the West have remained interdependent after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which partly explains Europe’s unwillingness to impose sanctions on Russia’s nuclear sector, the World Nuclear Industry Status Report showed on Thursday.
“Despite repeated calls—notably by the European Parliament—the nuclear sector remained exempt from sanctions—a clear indication of dependency on Russia in the field,” according to the annual industry report which assesses nuclear energy developments in the world.
The authors of the report found that interdependence between Russia and its Western partners remains significant.
For example, Russian state firm Rosatom is implementing all 13 nuclear power reactor construction sites started outside China over the past five years. As a result, Western providers of parts for the nuclear industry, such as France’s Arabelle turbines, do not have any foreign customers besides Rosatom, the report noted.
“The close mutual industrial and market interdependencies between the Russian nuclear industry and its Western counterparts at least partially explain European hesitations to impose sanctions on the nuclear sector,” the report reads.
The Russia-West interdependence remains as many allies of the U.S. and the EU—with the notable exception of Germany—have turned to nuclear to step up energy security and depend less on energy commodities since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Despite being an industry notoriously known for years of delays and huge cost overruns, a global nuclear power renaissance is underway.
The comeback of nuclear energy is expected to drive a record-high electricity generation from nuclear in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said early this year.
Even as some countries phase out nuclear power or retire plants early, global nuclear generation is expected to rise by nearly 3% per year on average through 2026, according to the IEA. The key growth drivers will be the completion of maintenance works in France, restart of some nuclear power plants in Japan, and new reactors coming online in China, India, South Korea, and Europe, among others.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09 ... ndent.html
Andrew Korybko
Sep 22, 2024
Sputnik described this as a “globalist attack” against Russia, accused TikTok of being “co-opted” by the US’” deep state”, and even shared a meme on X of their brand shooting TikTok’s.
The US declared war against Russia’s publicly financed media earlier this month after it claimed that they’re functioning as clandestine arms of that country’s intelligence services and then promised that it’ll apply the utmost pressure upon all members of the international community to ban them too. Few could have foreseen that China, which is one of Russia’s main strategic partners, would follow suit by having TikTok delete RT and Sputnik’s accounts but that’s exactly what just happened over the weekend.
Sputnik reacted with fury by describing this as a “globalist attack” against Russia, accusing TikTok of being “co-opted” by the US’ “deep state”, and even sharing a meme on X of their brand shooting TikTok’s, thus expressing how upset Russia is at being backstabbed by China in the global information war. It’s one thing for Western platforms like Meta to ban Russia’s flagship international media and another entirely for a strategic partner like China to do the same, which is absolutely unacceptable.
Russia’s response will likely remain limited to speaking through Sputnik since the complex interdependencies between them are too important for it to risk ruining their relations by escalating this dispute, however, but its diplomats might still give China’s a tongue lashing behind closed doors. TikTok also just argued in court last week that the US Government’s proposed ban of their app would have a “staggering” impact on free speech, yet then it hypocritically deleted RT and Sputnik’s accounts.
This social media platform plays a powerful role in shaping popular discourse, but Russia’s top publicly financed international media companies are now unable to win hearts and minds through these means after what just happened, which represents a major blow to their country’s soft power strategy. Even worse, it raises larger questions about China’s overall reliability in the face of American pressure, which a growing number in Russia have begun asking after several unexpected developments this year.
A Chinese energy company agreed to comply with US sanctions against Russia’s Artic LNG 2 project and then a bunch of Chinese banks prohibited payments to and from Russia. Interspersed between these two was Russia and China failing to resolve their pricing dispute over the Power of Siberia II pipeline during Putin’s visit. What he and Xi had previously declared to be their “no-limits partnership” very clearly has some real limits to it, and they’re increasingly influenced by American pressure.
China’s direct complex interdependencies with the US account for these scandalous policies, and considering that China and Russia also have such interdependencies between them, it can therefore be said that Russia has indirect complex interdependencies with the US that lean heavily in the US’ favor. This was explained more here and here when analyzing the resumption of Russian-IMF relations, but the relevance to TikTok deleting RT and Sputnik’s accounts is that China isn’t as sovereign as some thought.
Interestingly, despite India being in a similarly direct relationship of complex interdependence with the US as China is and even having close military ties with the US too, India refused to comply with US pressure upon it to ban RT and Sputnik’s national hubs. Reports also suggest that their financial ties have expanded to the point where clandestine channels have now been created for facilitating the export of dual-use technologies to Russia behind the US’ back in order to avoid secondary sanctions.
India’s policies stand in stark contrast to China’s, whose flagship social media platform TikTok just deleted RT and Sputnik’s accounts while its banks are too scared of secondary sanctions to continue business as usual with Russia, thus upending popular expectations. The Mainstream Media (MSM) and the Alt-Media Community (AMC) have hyped up China’s systemic rivalry with the US, each in advance of their own ideological agenda, but it turns out that ties between those two aren’t as terrible as many thought.
Their direct complex interdependencies have been weaponized by the US to coerce China into distancing itself from Russia, both publicly with respect to what TikTok just did as well as behind the scenes with regard to its banks’ voluntarily compliance with American sanctions. China isn’t willing to bear the costs that the US would impose upon it for defiantly standing in solidarity with Russia like India has done, the latter of which correctly wagered that it’s too important to the US to be punished like China would be.
The US is still pressuring India on domestic and regional issues as correspondingly explained here and here, however, so there was never any guarantee that the US wouldn’t punish India like it would punish China. India therefore took a calculated risk that China is too fearful to consider, which speaks volumes about their real sovereignty when it comes to defying American pressure to distance themselves from Russia upon threats to weaponize their complex interdependencies to that end.
The MSM might exaggerate the trouble that TikTok’s deletion of RT and Sputnik’s accounts caused for the Sino-Russo Entente while the AMC might predictably ignore or downplay this, each in advance of their own ideological agenda once again, so observers shouldn’t take their reporting about this at face value. The fact is that this represents a disturbing pattern of behavior from China which proves that it’s much more amenable to American pressure than either of those two media camps have made it seem.
China and the US are still systemic rivals, but the complex interdependencies between them have successfully been weaponized by the US to harm Russia, which isn’t the case with India. Even though India isn’t a systemic rival of the US like China is, it’s displayed much more sovereignty when it comes to its ties with Russia than China has, which should give observers a lot to think about. The honest among them will reconsider what they took for granted about China, while the dishonest won’t dare to do so.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-i ... nas-tiktok
(Little Andy never misses a chance to throw sand on the Chinese. Is it cause they're commies or is it just old fashioned Russian chauvinism?)
Armenia Isn’t All That Important To Iran’s Economic & National Security
Andrew Korybko
Sep 22, 2024
Iran has ulterior motives for opposing the Zangezur Corridor.
Iran’s continued opposition to the Zangezur Corridor, which was earlier analyzed here and here, is predicated on the assumption that Armenia is very important to its economic and national security. The thinking goes that they’d be harmed if Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye took control of that corridor, which could then cut Iran off from Europe and lead to the emergence of new threats on the border. Few have reflected on the merits of these claims, however, otherwise they’d have realized how shallow they are.
There was only a paltry €4.7 billion worth of trade between the EU and Iran last year, which approximately equates to 1.3% of the country’s $401 billion GDP last year. While it’s unclear how much of that was conducted via Georgia-Armenia, whatever it was had to traverse through the latter’s mountainous Syunik Province to reach the Islamic Republic. It’s cost-prohibitive to build a railway through there so logistics couldn’t ever realistically be scaled up across that route if trade grew.
In that scenario, and if they decide to conduct more of it through multimodal means across the South Caucasus instead of by sea, then it would make sense to do so via Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave after modernizing its existing rail infrastructure that Syunik Province lacks. This insight suggests that the future of their trade would therefore have to involve Azerbaijan, thereby discrediting the claim that Syunik Province is indispensable to Iran’s economic security.
Seeing as how Azerbaijan would also profit from this through customs duties, there’s no reason to suspect that it would cut off Iranian-EU trade, especially since that could provoke the West’s wrath. The only scenario in which that might happen would be in the event of another war with Armenia or a future one with Iran, in which case Azerbaijan could easily sever Syunik Province if trade hasn’t yet been diversified across Nakhchivan by then, or truckers might just avoid that route on their own.
Segueing into counterarguments against the claim that the worst-case scenario of Azerbaijani and/or Turkish control of Syunik Province outside of a war with Iran would harm the latter’s national security, it’s enough to know that the border with Armenia is a measly 40 kilometers to realize how ridiculous this is. Iran already has a 689-kilometer-long border with Azerbaijan and a 534-kilometer-long one with Turkiye for a total of 1223 kilometers so an expansion of that by 40 kilometers would only make it 3.27% longer.
Whatever security threats that Iran perceives to stem from those two therefore wouldn’t be exacerbated in that worst-case scenario. At the absolute most, it might briefly embolden some Azeri separatists in Iran’s northern regions, but they’ve stirred trouble before only to always be defeated so there’s no reason to expect them to finally succeed in that event. This observation proves that Iran’s national security wouldn’t be adversely affected if Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye controlled the Zangezur Corridor.
While it’s true that this scenario could facilitate Turkiye’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power if it was followed by the creation of a customs union with the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), most of whom are in Central Asia, this wouldn’t automatically pose a threat to Iran. The Islamic Republic would just have to make its own exports to those markets more competitive through whatever means it decides upon, plus Iran is already rising as a Eurasian Great Power in its own right, so everything would balance out.
Considering all this, it’s categorically untrue that Armenia is supposedly very important for Iran’s economic and national security, thus leading to the conclusion that ulterior motives such as elite consolidation or pro-Western signaling are behind its continued opposition to the Zangezur Corridor. Iran would therefore do well to explain the real motivations behind this policy since the explanations put forth by its media surrogates don’t add up and are easily discredited as proven by this analysis.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/armenia- ... portant-to
(One gets the sense that Andy doesn't like Russia getting cozy with any of the US's other targets and prefers that Russia hang alone.)
******
Georgia on track for peace in the Caucasus – but there is still a lot to be done
Lucas Leiroz
September 20, 2024
Tbilisi is beginning to understand that the only way to maintain regional peace is through a policy of friendship with the Russian Federation, ignoring the war plans of the Collective West.
Unlike Armenia, Georgia seems to be choosing a good path for itself and the entire Caucasus region. Despite the West’s attempts to destabilize the country and implement anti-Russian policies, the Georgian government remains firm in its decision not to join the NATO-fueled madness. Not even the pro-EU lobby led by the country’s president seems to be enough to reverse the local people’s choice – represented by parliamentarians – to say “no” to war.
Along with the rejection of NATO, the first steps towards historical justice are beginning to emerge in Georgia. Recently, former Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said that Georgia should publicly apologize for initiating hostilities in the 2008 war. In addition, the official said that a “Georgian Nuremberg” should be established in the country to condemn politicians and military personnel involved in crimes during the regime of Mikhail Saakashvili – the then Georgian prime minister who, after losing the war, fled to Ukraine and began a political career under the Maidan regime.
Both Ivanishvili and the current leader of the Parliament, Irakli Kobakhidze, belong to the same party – the “Georgian Dream” – which has been accused of being “pro-Russian” simply because it advocates a neutral position in the current conflict between Moscow and NATO. The main accusers are supporters of President Salome Zourabichvili, who was recently named by Russian intelligence as the main agent in a mobilization to generate a regime change operation in Georgia.
Zourabishvili is the leading figure in the opposition to the ruling parliamentary coalition. A foreigner herself on Georgian soil, Zourabishvili attempted to veto Georgia’s recent law restricting foreign agents, fearing that it would diminish Western influence in the country. The bill was approved by lawmakers despite the president’s opposition, which raised serious concerns in Western countries.
The West fears that Georgia will become less vulnerable to its influence due to restrictions on the work of foreign NGOs. As some Russian analysts point out, there is no “anti-Western” intention in Georgia, and many of its politicians’ statements are simply an electoral maneuver. However, the U.S. and Europe do not seem willing to accept even the minimum of sovereignty for Georgia, demanding absolute subservience.
According to NATO’s war plans, Georgia was supposed to attack the breakaway republics in order to open a second front in the war against Russia. Although revanchist sentiments and Russophobia are indeed strong in Georgia, the current government is not willing to engage in a suicidal conflict just to satisfy NATO’s irrational intentions. In practice, the Georgian government wants to reconcile two contradictory positions: to maintain a foreign policy aligned with the West, but to preserve a minimum of sovereignty so as not to engage in suicidal wars.
In addition to all these factors, parliamentary elections are coming up. In October, Georgians will elect their new representatives to Parliament. The Prime Minister has already warned about the possibility of electoral interference by foreign agents, in a clear attempt to explain the reality of Western interventionism. In recent times, several Western maneuvers to change the regime in Georgia have failed, which is why the West is expected to increase its aggressiveness from now on, investing in direct electoral sabotage.
Furthermore, if it fails to change the regime through elections, the West could simply resort to using military violence. Thousands of Georgian neo-Nazi militants are ready to obey any NATO order. Many of these militants even have real combat experience, as they are involved in anti-Russian hostilities. For example, the participation of the Georgian militia “Caucasian Legion” in the invasion of Kursk, where fascist mercenaries tortured and murdered several Russian civilians and prisoners of war, was recently reported.
Georgia will hardly be able to face all Western threats without engaging in deep security cooperation with the Russian Federation, including on the level of military and intelligence assistance. The first step towards peace has already been taken by the Georgians by saying “no” to NATO’s request to open a second front against Russia. However, there is still a lot to be done. Georgia needs to overcome revanchism and Russophobia and radically change its foreign policy, aligning itself with the country that is most committed to preserving peace in the Caucasus.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... -lot-done/
******
Hamster and hamsters
September 22, 12:26
Hamster and hamsters
"They cheated me! They cheated me with the hamster!" - couch crypto investors around the world are outraged by the payouts for months of "hamster tapping" - playing Hamster Combat.
The average player will receive from $15 to $50 for six (!!!) months of tapping, buying cards, watching videos and stupid mini-games. Moreover, you can immediately withdraw only 10% of what you earned. But many will not receive even this penny - they were deprived of payments for "cheating" - tricks for developing the hamster without wasting time.
Butts are burning all over the world ( https://t.me/banksta/58125 ), but most of all - in our vast Motherland, Georgia, Turkey, Armenia and the remains of Ukraine. Curious geography, huh?
Before this, millions of players convinced themselves and others that they were not burning hours and days of their lives, but "investing in future wealth" - telling examples with "bitcoin, which no one believed in" and successful tokens NotCoin and DOGS.
People seriously (!!!) counted and discussed how many loans they would close and buy smartphones (and even cars) after the start of payments. True, some ended up in a real mental hospital because of "Hamster" (proof ( https://www.mentoday.ru/life/news/10-06 ... zarabotat/) ) or lost their jobs (proof ( https://harant.ru/questions/q-46437/). )
Actually, as with any MMM, the hamster sect convinces everyone "they definitely won't screw you over in the new season." For reference - in the new season, the users who have accumulated millions will have to earn "crystals", but to do this, they must strictly and rigidly complete all the tasks (watch videos, play, etc.).
Although some are already beginning to guess:
"Blue crystals can be earned by completing ALL mandatory tasks and buying cards. It seems that we are being accustomed to new game mechanics! Now you won't be able to slack off, you'll have to participate in all tasks several times a day, watch all the videos! In short, they want to make an army of trained Internet hamsters out of us, who will watch, click and write everything they need to!"
"It was known in advance that the tappers will receive about 1% of the volume of issued crypto. The remaining 99% will be sold by the organizers," - reports "Banksta ( https://t.me/banksta/58124) ". The profit of the game itself (owned ( https://neolurk.org/wiki/Hamster_Kombat ) "Russian offshore") is several million dollars a day.
https://t.me/glavmedia/359914 - zinc
After all, this has never happened before...
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9397036.html
Thomas Cantacuzene goes to Moscow
September 22, 18:44
Thomas Cantacuzene goes to Moscow
In May 1630, Thomas Kantakouzenos, the ambassador of the Turkish Sultan, arrived in Moscow. Thomas himself was an Orthodox Greek "Phanariot", that is, a Byzantine and was officially considered a descendant of the emperors of the Second Rome (there are different opinions on this matter, but, apparently, he was some distant offspring of the former "basileusses").
The Orthodox ambassador of the Islamic Caliph came to Moscow to negotiate joint military actions against Poland. After all, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was then the main and most dangerous enemy of Russia. The Polish King Vladislav, by inheritance from the upheavals of our Time of Troubles, still officially lays claim to the Moscow throne. Soon, in two years, Russia will begin the not very successful "Smolensk War". And the Turks will be our informal ally - they will also fight with the lords at the borders of modern Moldova.
In short, in the spring of 1630, the Turkish ambassador was a welcome guest in Russia – especially since it was already the third diplomatic visit to Moscow for a descendant of Byzantine emperors. But for now we will not talk about geopolitics, but about personal “politics”…
In the retinue of Ambassador Cantacuzinos, a certain “Turkishman” Gadzhi Mugla Tersen-“areiz” arrived. The last term – “areiz” – is how the scribes of the Ambassadorial Office wrote down the Turkish “reis”, which in the language of our ancestors of the 17th century was translated as “shipman”, and today would sound like a captain.
Gadzhi Mugla, as follows from the name, was a Muslim. And he came to look for his sons – they were captured by the Don Cossacks during a naval raid.
Indeed, in 1625 – despite the Tsar’s direct prohibition that “they should not provoke the Turkish sultan and should not go to sea” – the Don Cossack chieftains set out on an annual sea raid. Off the coast of Crimea, they ravaged the city of Gözlev (future Evpatoria), and then, having united with their colleagues from the Zaporizhian Sich, they sailed to the opposite shore of the Black Sea to plunder Trebizond. They plundered more or less successfully, but not without losses.
On the way back, the Don Cossacks and the Zaporizhian Cossacks clearly did not share everything. The Zaporizhian Cossacks stabbed one of the Don chieftains to death during an argument about the intricacies of naval tactics and strategy… But they managed to avoid a major discord, and the joint Cossack flotilla captured many Turkish merchant ships off the coast of the Ottoman Empire.
On their retreat, somewhere near the mouth of the Danube, the Cossacks were battered by Turkish galleys. The domestic romantics of power commerce fought back, not without losses. It was during this campaign that the young sons of the "shipman Gadzhi Mugla" - in a Russian record from four centuries ago, "Sadiy da Agmut" - ended up in Cossack captivity.
The Ottoman who arrived with the embassy was clearly rich and had conducted a private investigation before traveling to Moscow. He knew that his sons had been bought on the Don by the "Moscow merchant" Fyodor Tsyplyatnikov.
Since there was peace between the Tsar and the Sultan (they were friends, I remind you, against the Poles), since the Don Cossacks' campaigns against the Turks "for zipuns" were prohibited by the Tsar, the Turk filed an official petition through the Ambassadorial Prikaz to search for his sons.
The case was handled by the Discharge Department.
In Moscow, they quickly found the "merchant of the Vegetable Row" Fyodor Tsyplyatnikov. He said that in 1628 he bought "Turkish captives" "in the Cherkassky town" on the Don: one "little Akhmetka", two "Turkish girls" and a "Turkish woman".
That same Akhmetka was one of the sons of the "shipman Gadzhi Mugla", he was 12 years old and they bought him for 12 rubles. The Turkish "girls Fatmashka and Angudunka" were bought for 13 and 15 rubles (the second one was obviously prettier), and the Turkish woman for 12 rubles. Well, it's logical - girls have always been more expensive than men and women. The prices, by the way, were decent - a good peasant horse in the center of Russia then cost 2 rubles, and a good house only 10.
"Little Akhmetka" on the way from the Don, "the merchant of the Vegetable Row" Fyodor Tsyplyatnikov sold without profit, for the same 12 rubles, to the governor of the city of Yelets, Prince Yuri Andreevich Zvenigorodsky (by the way, a Rurikovich and close associate of the first tsar from the Romanov dynasty).
But "the girl Fatmashka" in Moscow "the merchant of the Vegetable Row" profitably resold to "the German merchant Ivan Nikitin" for 30 rubles (that is, he received 17 rubles in profit!).
Another girl and a woman remained in the Tsyplyatnikov family, and the girl, "the girl Angudunka" was baptized, she became Anna and was married to a certain Timofey.
Timofey, however, was also a similar Turkish captive – he was captured by the Cossacks in 1621, when he was sailing with his father from Istanbul to Azov. On the way they were intercepted by the Cossacks, the Turkish father was killed, and the son was sold. Only Business, Nothing Personal – from that side there are absolutely mirror stories, only instead of Don and Zaporozhian Cossacks there were Crimean and Kuban Tatars. Well, the flow of “captives” to Asian markets was more numerous than to Moscow ones – at least because Ottoman Asia was then much richer than Muscovite Russia…
In the course of further investigation on the petition from the Turkish “shipbuilder” it turned out that his second son – “the little Turk Sadyk” – was bought by “the head of Yelets Ivan Temiryazev”. He bought it for 13 rubles 60 kopecks (at that time in Russia kopecks were considered a "Moscow account", inherited from the Golden Horde - that's why in the documents of the 17th century, of course, not 60 kopecks, but 20 altyns). By that time, the already 16-year-old "Turkish man" was summoned to Moscow. It turned out that he was no longer a "Turkish man", but a baptized Orthodox person and even taught to write in Russian (13 rubles 60 kopecks is quite a solid sum, it seems that Ivan Temiryazev clearly bought the boy with the expectation of investing in him knowledge of literacy).
In short, the Turkish pope was denied satisfaction of the petition - according to all the laws and concepts of Muscovite Russia of that era, those baptized into Orthodoxy cannot be given or extradited or sold to "infidels". If those boys had officially kept the Islamic faith, the conversation would have been different; most likely they would have given it to their father when he reimbursed the expenses of the bona fide buyers.
But it is clear that children who were "captured" at the age of 11-12 could hardly have consciously kept their former religion.
In short, the story is almost common for that era. For the Turkish Pope, it is very sad. But for the former "little Turchenin Sadyk" it is not so sad - a literate person there and then is a very enviable social position in any class situation.
P.S. But for whom this story is especially sad is for the descendant of the Byzantine emperors, the ambassador Thomas Kantakouzenos.
During his next diplomatic visit to Russia, he and his ambassadorial retinue, which also consisted mainly of Orthodox "Greeks", were killed by those same Don Cossacks.
In justification of the murder of the diplomats, the brave (really very, very brave, this was just the beginning of the extremely heroic "Azov siege" without jokes), but not at all sinless atamans of the Don came up with a creative idea, even for that era bordering on childish naivety - they wrote to Moscow that the murdered ambassador and his retinue were engaged in witchcraft: "They did great mischief with evil magic... they cast elegant spells on our camps."
Well, and the valuables and documents of the embassy, according to the Cossacks, "were destroyed by some unknown means."
PPS However, the Cantacuzines were used to such deaths. The father and uncle of Thomas Cantacuzene, killed by the Cossacks, were once executed by the Ottoman sultan at the end of the 16th century. So they were used to losing their heads. The era, sir. Harsh.
https://t.me/alter_vij/3205 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9397977.html
Google Translator
******
Russian and Western Nuclear Industries Remain Interdependent
Posted on September 22, 2024 by Lambert Strether
Lambert here: What could go wrong. Although 3% a year through 2026 seems like rather a short time-frame. Readers?
By Tsvetana Paraskova, a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. Originally published at OilPrice.com.
The nuclear energy industries in Russia and the West have remained interdependent after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which partly explains Europe’s unwillingness to impose sanctions on Russia’s nuclear sector, the World Nuclear Industry Status Report showed on Thursday.
“Despite repeated calls—notably by the European Parliament—the nuclear sector remained exempt from sanctions—a clear indication of dependency on Russia in the field,” according to the annual industry report which assesses nuclear energy developments in the world.
The authors of the report found that interdependence between Russia and its Western partners remains significant.
For example, Russian state firm Rosatom is implementing all 13 nuclear power reactor construction sites started outside China over the past five years. As a result, Western providers of parts for the nuclear industry, such as France’s Arabelle turbines, do not have any foreign customers besides Rosatom, the report noted.
“The close mutual industrial and market interdependencies between the Russian nuclear industry and its Western counterparts at least partially explain European hesitations to impose sanctions on the nuclear sector,” the report reads.
The Russia-West interdependence remains as many allies of the U.S. and the EU—with the notable exception of Germany—have turned to nuclear to step up energy security and depend less on energy commodities since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Despite being an industry notoriously known for years of delays and huge cost overruns, a global nuclear power renaissance is underway.
The comeback of nuclear energy is expected to drive a record-high electricity generation from nuclear in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said early this year.
Even as some countries phase out nuclear power or retire plants early, global nuclear generation is expected to rise by nearly 3% per year on average through 2026, according to the IEA. The key growth drivers will be the completion of maintenance works in France, restart of some nuclear power plants in Japan, and new reactors coming online in China, India, South Korea, and Europe, among others.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09 ... ndent.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
Russia Rebuked The Hawks By Confirming That It Won’t Test Nukes Unless The US Does So First
Andrew Korybko
Sep 24, 2024
Putin doesn’t want the US thinking that he’s about to escalate and thus tempt it into escalating first in a way that could then spiral out of control into World War III like he fears.
Putin’s strongly worded warning against the West letting Ukraine use their long-range weapons to strike deep inside of Russia, which could only occur through NATO’s behind-the-scenes assistance, prompted a lot of speculation about whether he’d use nuclear weapons in response or at least test them once again. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov just rubbished the second scenario though after he confirmed that his country won’t test nukes unless the US does so first. Here are a few background briefings:
* “Korybko To Karaganov: Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine Shouldn’t Apply To Any Territorial Encroachment”
* “What Would Really Be Achieved By Russia Using Nuclear Weapons In Ukraine At This Point?”
* “Lavrov Explained What Russia Hopes To Achieve By Talking About Its Red Lines”
Russia’s policy reaffirmation is a rebuke to hawks like Karaganov who are lobbying for a more muscular approach towards nuclear deterrence. In their minds, a demonstration test could scare the West into backing off from militarily supporting Ukraine out of fear that Russia might soon resort to using nuclear weapons there, but this thinking carries with it the risk that the West might still refuse. Russia would then be pressured to use them in order to “save face” or risk looking like the West called its bluff.
Putin doesn’t want to be placed in that dilemma, ergo why he tasked Ryabkov with clarifying that no test is being considered. He’s extremely cautious by nature and is accordingly very reluctant to do anything that could escalate the proxy war with NATO into World War III. Testing nukes first would be spun by the West as “unprovoked saber-rattling”, predictably lead to a reciprocal American test, and then possibly be exploited to ramp up support for Ukraine in order to not appear to be “backing down” to Russia.
If Russia didn’t follow up by using nukes in Ukraine under those circumstances, which there’s no military or strategic need to do anyhow as explained in the earlier cited analysis above, then it would look like it was the one “backing down” to the US. If the US was the first to resume testing of nuclear weapons, however, then Russia’s reciprocal test would appear to be a display of confidence and self-respect instead of a bluff driven by weakness and perhaps even a bit of desperation.
Returning to the hawks, they’re convinced that the West already thinks that Russia is weak and desperate after its prior setbacks in the field and the repeated crossing of its perceived red lines, which is why they think that there’s nothing to lose even if they test nukes but then don’t use them. They of course want Russia use nukes as Karaganov has explicitly proposed, including against some of NATO’s European members like he suggested in summer 2023, but they’d be pleased even if it only tests them.
Putin has presumably been informed of how weak and desperate some in the West think that his country has become as evidenced by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently referencing what he described as their “child’s mentality” towards the crossing of its red lines. Nevertheless, he still believes that the main decisionmakers know that they can’t cross the ultimate red line of directly attacking Russia, hence why it hasn’t yet happened and they continue waging war against it via proxy means.
If these comparatively more rational decisionmakers thought that Russia was serious about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine and became worried about the resultant escalation cycle could lead to World War III, then they might consider crossing that ultimate red line first in order to have an advantage. Prior calculations among some hawks were that they’d then “back down” and abandon Ukraine, but they could also “step up” and intensify their proxy war against Russia, including by directly attacking it.
Being as cautious as he is, Putin doesn’t want to take the risk of spooking them into that worst-case scenario, thus adding another dimension to why he doesn’t want to test nukes first. His thinking could always change, but what was explained in this analysis cogently accounts for why he had Ryabkov rebuke hawks like Karaganov. He doesn’t want the US thinking that he’s about to escalate and thus tempt it into escalating first in a way that could then spiral out of control into World War III like he fears.
In other words, he believes that practicing the “madman theory” like his hawks and their media surrogates want might backfire, and he’s not comfortable risking that. He’d rather have Russia perceived among some Westerners as weak and desperate as long as their main decisionmakers still think otherwise and therefore won’t dare to attack Russia directly. He also doesn’t want to scare the latter into considering a first strike either, however, which he’s worried that a nuclear test might eventually lead to.
For these reasons, Putin is content to wait until the US tests nukes first, and he also has no interest in using them unless Russia is directly attacked by NATO or is convinced that it’s right about to be attacked. The US won’t cross that ultimate red line though and Russia hasn’t suggested that it’s even considering it. That being the case, he doesn’t believe that there’s anything to be gained by testing nukes and thus risking the chance that this status quo could change, much to the chagrin of hawks on both sides.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-r ... confirming
******
Fines for childfree propaganda
September 24, 11:18
Fines for childfree propaganda in Russia.
Individuals - 400,000
Officials - 800,000
Legal entities - 5,000,000
Again, do not confuse childfree propaganda with the refusal to have children. The former will be punished, and the question of whether or not to have children is a personal matter.
P.S. The State Duma also proposed increasing fines for publicly insulting government officials on the Internet, as well as adding an option with imprisonment for up to two years.
P.S. Telegram has opened a function for reporting content that violates the laws of your country.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9400991.html
The anti-Western reaction to Western aggression does not serve Russia well. It is good to criticize the corporate 'Green' bullshit, or the diversity scam which I see as devised to divide the working class. But to deny climate change and environmental degradation and to victimize minorities who the Western elites are using to pursue their agenda is badly mistaken and wrong. Here the interests of the Russian oligarchy and the ROC come into play. Stalin made mistakes, and one I think was granting legitimacy to the ROC during the Great Patriotic War which it had lost after the Revolution. This metastased into the social reaction we see in Russia today. Perhaps it was necessary during the War, I dunno. But it should have been re-set afterwards. Metaphysics should be avoided.
What I find amusing about Russian bloggers who promote the social reaction is that they like to pick and chose what parts of the "West" they should discard and what parts they would retain. Thus the West is bad except for my favorite rock bands, my favorite Western movies, my favorite video games, my favorite classical music....There is a whole lot that is awful about Western culture but there's a whole, whole lot to it, and short of a total breakdown of civilization there's no escaping it. Cursing Peter the Great gets you nowhere, done is done.
"Two Liberals"
September 23, 23:20
Ballad by A.V. Lunacharsky "Two Liberals"
Along Nevsky, looking sad and sick,
Two liberals walked slowly,
Killed by the thought that
the government had once again spat in their beards.
"My friend Petrunkevich!" said Trubetskoy. "
The tsar has fooled us most disgustingly,
And the zemstvo and duma members
will greet us with reproach, probably, in an embarrassed crowd.
I have a presentiment: the social democrat
Will begin to sneer at us,
And Struve, our faithful and wise brother,
Will burst into tears in Paris.
The tsar was quite decent in words,
I sat down to breakfast with an appetite
And with joy in my princely heart... But, ah!
Hopes are cruelly dashed!
The tsar distorted everything in the printed paper,
Deprived his speeches of meaning...
Oh, cry, Petrunkevich, oh, cry, liberal!
This moment of rapture has disappeared."
In response, Petrunkevich shook his head,
Said: "Our strength is not in tears!
You see - the worker has risen to fight
And the storm in the village has howled.
Let the breath of the people's thunder blow
On the sail of the liberal boat, -
Then, fidgeting like a fidget,
We will penetrate the feudal port.
Although the explosion of anarchy is terrible even for the zemstvos,
But it is twice as terrible for the throne,
And only by concluding an alliance among ourselves,
We can rule in peace.
The supreme power will soon understand this
And take a step towards us;
And I, a liberal, but a patriot at heart,
Will answer a discount with a discount.
Then we will tame the elements, Trubetskoy,
Other orders will come!
It was not for nothing that a lackey from the palace servants
Brought me these gloves;
The times of Yezhov's mittens have passed,
And in this lackey's glove
We will now tame unbridled faces
In a manner already European.
Yes, the Tsar will call us, I believe, to him:
Ministerial chairs await us!
Then they will gird both you and me
With the sword of the liberal loins!
We will maintain the strictest order
Together with the second chamber:
Progress must be slow, slow -
That's how the rich landowner thinks.
The mother of strength is slowness! - that's what
the meaning of all age-old constitutions says, And the Chinese philosopher Confucius
says the same in his works . Do not be afraid, Prince! The liberal has not fallen From the ugly royal lie, - I even read in "Iskra" the other day: "Power will always be bourgeois"
On a tip from Vott https://vott.ru/entry/642289?cid=7845717
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9400530.html
Google Translator
******
Georgian NGOs ask EU to suspend visa-free regime with Georgia
September 22, 2024
Rybar
And in classic fashion, as soon as the American gentlemen begin to talk about new sanctions against the Georgian authorities, the Georgian lackeys nod in response.
Georgian NGOs are asking the EU to suspend visa-free travel with Georgia to show voters the consequences of the government's actions ahead of parliamentary elections.
Threaten Convince people that the ruling party has made the wrong choice at the vote by means of blackmail - the scheme is so old and trivial that it is not even clear what representatives of non-governmental organizations are hoping for.
The visa-free regime is, of course, good and tempting. But only a small category of Georgian citizens took advantage of it. Traveling to Europe is not cheap , and not everyone could afford it.
The majority of Georgians will not be affected by the abolition of the visa-free regime (if it is implemented). But representatives of pro-Western NGOs or politicians will be directly affected, so it is not hard to guess who will suffer more.
https://rybar.ru/gruzinskie-npo-prosyat ... s-gruziej/
About the project of the International Organization for the Russian Language
September 23, 2024
Rybar
Against the backdrop of Turkey’s active efforts to promote a single Turkic alphabet in Central Asia, many have asked themselves: is there really no alternative on our part?
Well, formally there is, and Maria Zakharova reminded us about it during a briefing on the sidelines of the IV Eurasian Women’s Forum in St. Petersburg on September 20.
The issue is the creation of the International Organization for the Russian Language, a decision about which was made about a year ago by the CIS leaders at a meeting in Bishkek . Zakharova was quite optimistic about the prospects of this organization for a quick registration and start of work, and became in fact the first major Russian official to remember the project this year.
According to the plan voiced by the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev, the organization was supposed to become almost a second Francophonie or at least a Commonwealth of Portuguese-speaking countries, but in fact it became an opportunity for Kazakhstan to reject accusations of de-Russification of the country and so far serves only this thesis.
At the same time, we do not agree with the optimism of our MFA regarding the prospects of the organization. According to our information, the procedure for the official ratification of this agreement by at least three CIS states that signed it has not been completed , which is necessary to launch organizational procedures and hold the long-awaited ministerial conference, which should launch the process of the actual creation of the organization.
Moreover, the only activity of the responsible structures in this direction is the internal struggle for the post of formal leader ( secretary, coordinator, etc. ) of this organization, as well as the determination of Sochi ( and not St. Petersburg as proposed by Tokayev ) as the location of the Secretariat.
If the promotion of the Russian language continues at the same pace and with the same enthusiasm, then indeed Central Asia will soon speak Turkish.
https://rybar.ru/o-proekte-mezhdunarodn ... mu-yazyku/
Google Translator
Reactionary, meh.
Andrew Korybko
Sep 24, 2024
Putin doesn’t want the US thinking that he’s about to escalate and thus tempt it into escalating first in a way that could then spiral out of control into World War III like he fears.
Putin’s strongly worded warning against the West letting Ukraine use their long-range weapons to strike deep inside of Russia, which could only occur through NATO’s behind-the-scenes assistance, prompted a lot of speculation about whether he’d use nuclear weapons in response or at least test them once again. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov just rubbished the second scenario though after he confirmed that his country won’t test nukes unless the US does so first. Here are a few background briefings:
* “Korybko To Karaganov: Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine Shouldn’t Apply To Any Territorial Encroachment”
* “What Would Really Be Achieved By Russia Using Nuclear Weapons In Ukraine At This Point?”
* “Lavrov Explained What Russia Hopes To Achieve By Talking About Its Red Lines”
Russia’s policy reaffirmation is a rebuke to hawks like Karaganov who are lobbying for a more muscular approach towards nuclear deterrence. In their minds, a demonstration test could scare the West into backing off from militarily supporting Ukraine out of fear that Russia might soon resort to using nuclear weapons there, but this thinking carries with it the risk that the West might still refuse. Russia would then be pressured to use them in order to “save face” or risk looking like the West called its bluff.
Putin doesn’t want to be placed in that dilemma, ergo why he tasked Ryabkov with clarifying that no test is being considered. He’s extremely cautious by nature and is accordingly very reluctant to do anything that could escalate the proxy war with NATO into World War III. Testing nukes first would be spun by the West as “unprovoked saber-rattling”, predictably lead to a reciprocal American test, and then possibly be exploited to ramp up support for Ukraine in order to not appear to be “backing down” to Russia.
If Russia didn’t follow up by using nukes in Ukraine under those circumstances, which there’s no military or strategic need to do anyhow as explained in the earlier cited analysis above, then it would look like it was the one “backing down” to the US. If the US was the first to resume testing of nuclear weapons, however, then Russia’s reciprocal test would appear to be a display of confidence and self-respect instead of a bluff driven by weakness and perhaps even a bit of desperation.
Returning to the hawks, they’re convinced that the West already thinks that Russia is weak and desperate after its prior setbacks in the field and the repeated crossing of its perceived red lines, which is why they think that there’s nothing to lose even if they test nukes but then don’t use them. They of course want Russia use nukes as Karaganov has explicitly proposed, including against some of NATO’s European members like he suggested in summer 2023, but they’d be pleased even if it only tests them.
Putin has presumably been informed of how weak and desperate some in the West think that his country has become as evidenced by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently referencing what he described as their “child’s mentality” towards the crossing of its red lines. Nevertheless, he still believes that the main decisionmakers know that they can’t cross the ultimate red line of directly attacking Russia, hence why it hasn’t yet happened and they continue waging war against it via proxy means.
If these comparatively more rational decisionmakers thought that Russia was serious about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine and became worried about the resultant escalation cycle could lead to World War III, then they might consider crossing that ultimate red line first in order to have an advantage. Prior calculations among some hawks were that they’d then “back down” and abandon Ukraine, but they could also “step up” and intensify their proxy war against Russia, including by directly attacking it.
Being as cautious as he is, Putin doesn’t want to take the risk of spooking them into that worst-case scenario, thus adding another dimension to why he doesn’t want to test nukes first. His thinking could always change, but what was explained in this analysis cogently accounts for why he had Ryabkov rebuke hawks like Karaganov. He doesn’t want the US thinking that he’s about to escalate and thus tempt it into escalating first in a way that could then spiral out of control into World War III like he fears.
In other words, he believes that practicing the “madman theory” like his hawks and their media surrogates want might backfire, and he’s not comfortable risking that. He’d rather have Russia perceived among some Westerners as weak and desperate as long as their main decisionmakers still think otherwise and therefore won’t dare to attack Russia directly. He also doesn’t want to scare the latter into considering a first strike either, however, which he’s worried that a nuclear test might eventually lead to.
For these reasons, Putin is content to wait until the US tests nukes first, and he also has no interest in using them unless Russia is directly attacked by NATO or is convinced that it’s right about to be attacked. The US won’t cross that ultimate red line though and Russia hasn’t suggested that it’s even considering it. That being the case, he doesn’t believe that there’s anything to be gained by testing nukes and thus risking the chance that this status quo could change, much to the chagrin of hawks on both sides.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-r ... confirming
******
Fines for childfree propaganda
September 24, 11:18
Fines for childfree propaganda in Russia.
Individuals - 400,000
Officials - 800,000
Legal entities - 5,000,000
Again, do not confuse childfree propaganda with the refusal to have children. The former will be punished, and the question of whether or not to have children is a personal matter.
P.S. The State Duma also proposed increasing fines for publicly insulting government officials on the Internet, as well as adding an option with imprisonment for up to two years.
P.S. Telegram has opened a function for reporting content that violates the laws of your country.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9400991.html
The anti-Western reaction to Western aggression does not serve Russia well. It is good to criticize the corporate 'Green' bullshit, or the diversity scam which I see as devised to divide the working class. But to deny climate change and environmental degradation and to victimize minorities who the Western elites are using to pursue their agenda is badly mistaken and wrong. Here the interests of the Russian oligarchy and the ROC come into play. Stalin made mistakes, and one I think was granting legitimacy to the ROC during the Great Patriotic War which it had lost after the Revolution. This metastased into the social reaction we see in Russia today. Perhaps it was necessary during the War, I dunno. But it should have been re-set afterwards. Metaphysics should be avoided.
What I find amusing about Russian bloggers who promote the social reaction is that they like to pick and chose what parts of the "West" they should discard and what parts they would retain. Thus the West is bad except for my favorite rock bands, my favorite Western movies, my favorite video games, my favorite classical music....There is a whole lot that is awful about Western culture but there's a whole, whole lot to it, and short of a total breakdown of civilization there's no escaping it. Cursing Peter the Great gets you nowhere, done is done.
"Two Liberals"
September 23, 23:20
Ballad by A.V. Lunacharsky "Two Liberals"
Along Nevsky, looking sad and sick,
Two liberals walked slowly,
Killed by the thought that
the government had once again spat in their beards.
"My friend Petrunkevich!" said Trubetskoy. "
The tsar has fooled us most disgustingly,
And the zemstvo and duma members
will greet us with reproach, probably, in an embarrassed crowd.
I have a presentiment: the social democrat
Will begin to sneer at us,
And Struve, our faithful and wise brother,
Will burst into tears in Paris.
The tsar was quite decent in words,
I sat down to breakfast with an appetite
And with joy in my princely heart... But, ah!
Hopes are cruelly dashed!
The tsar distorted everything in the printed paper,
Deprived his speeches of meaning...
Oh, cry, Petrunkevich, oh, cry, liberal!
This moment of rapture has disappeared."
In response, Petrunkevich shook his head,
Said: "Our strength is not in tears!
You see - the worker has risen to fight
And the storm in the village has howled.
Let the breath of the people's thunder blow
On the sail of the liberal boat, -
Then, fidgeting like a fidget,
We will penetrate the feudal port.
Although the explosion of anarchy is terrible even for the zemstvos,
But it is twice as terrible for the throne,
And only by concluding an alliance among ourselves,
We can rule in peace.
The supreme power will soon understand this
And take a step towards us;
And I, a liberal, but a patriot at heart,
Will answer a discount with a discount.
Then we will tame the elements, Trubetskoy,
Other orders will come!
It was not for nothing that a lackey from the palace servants
Brought me these gloves;
The times of Yezhov's mittens have passed,
And in this lackey's glove
We will now tame unbridled faces
In a manner already European.
Yes, the Tsar will call us, I believe, to him:
Ministerial chairs await us!
Then they will gird both you and me
With the sword of the liberal loins!
We will maintain the strictest order
Together with the second chamber:
Progress must be slow, slow -
That's how the rich landowner thinks.
The mother of strength is slowness! - that's what
the meaning of all age-old constitutions says, And the Chinese philosopher Confucius
says the same in his works . Do not be afraid, Prince! The liberal has not fallen From the ugly royal lie, - I even read in "Iskra" the other day: "Power will always be bourgeois"
On a tip from Vott https://vott.ru/entry/642289?cid=7845717
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9400530.html
Google Translator
******
Georgian NGOs ask EU to suspend visa-free regime with Georgia
September 22, 2024
Rybar
And in classic fashion, as soon as the American gentlemen begin to talk about new sanctions against the Georgian authorities, the Georgian lackeys nod in response.
Georgian NGOs are asking the EU to suspend visa-free travel with Georgia to show voters the consequences of the government's actions ahead of parliamentary elections.
Threaten Convince people that the ruling party has made the wrong choice at the vote by means of blackmail - the scheme is so old and trivial that it is not even clear what representatives of non-governmental organizations are hoping for.
The visa-free regime is, of course, good and tempting. But only a small category of Georgian citizens took advantage of it. Traveling to Europe is not cheap , and not everyone could afford it.
The majority of Georgians will not be affected by the abolition of the visa-free regime (if it is implemented). But representatives of pro-Western NGOs or politicians will be directly affected, so it is not hard to guess who will suffer more.
https://rybar.ru/gruzinskie-npo-prosyat ... s-gruziej/
About the project of the International Organization for the Russian Language
September 23, 2024
Rybar
Against the backdrop of Turkey’s active efforts to promote a single Turkic alphabet in Central Asia, many have asked themselves: is there really no alternative on our part?
Well, formally there is, and Maria Zakharova reminded us about it during a briefing on the sidelines of the IV Eurasian Women’s Forum in St. Petersburg on September 20.
The issue is the creation of the International Organization for the Russian Language, a decision about which was made about a year ago by the CIS leaders at a meeting in Bishkek . Zakharova was quite optimistic about the prospects of this organization for a quick registration and start of work, and became in fact the first major Russian official to remember the project this year.
According to the plan voiced by the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev, the organization was supposed to become almost a second Francophonie or at least a Commonwealth of Portuguese-speaking countries, but in fact it became an opportunity for Kazakhstan to reject accusations of de-Russification of the country and so far serves only this thesis.
At the same time, we do not agree with the optimism of our MFA regarding the prospects of the organization. According to our information, the procedure for the official ratification of this agreement by at least three CIS states that signed it has not been completed , which is necessary to launch organizational procedures and hold the long-awaited ministerial conference, which should launch the process of the actual creation of the organization.
Moreover, the only activity of the responsible structures in this direction is the internal struggle for the post of formal leader ( secretary, coordinator, etc. ) of this organization, as well as the determination of Sochi ( and not St. Petersburg as proposed by Tokayev ) as the location of the Secretariat.
If the promotion of the Russian language continues at the same pace and with the same enthusiasm, then indeed Central Asia will soon speak Turkish.
https://rybar.ru/o-proekte-mezhdunarodn ... mu-yazyku/
Google Translator
Reactionary, meh.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
The global food impact of sanctions against Russia
Sep 25, 2024 , 5:38 pm .
The Federation is the world's leading exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, the second largest supplier of potassium and the third largest exporter of phosphate fertilizers (Photo: Archive)
The sanctions of the European Union (EU) against Russia and Belarus interfere with the export dynamics of these countries and cause obstacles in the supply of agricultural products and fertilizers to Latin America, Africa and Asia. This is stated by the Embassy of the Russian Federation in an article published on its official website , where it exposes how these measures of economic and commercial war against the country endanger food production on a global scale.
Russia is an indispensable producer for global food security not only because it is the largest supplier of wheat but also because it plays an important role in the international fertilizer trade. The Federation is the world's leading exporter of nitrogen fertilizers , the second largest supplier of potassium and the third largest exporter of phosphate fertilizers.
The article published by the embassy systematizes the consequences of the anti-Russian policy on the market of agricultural products and fertilizers, and reveals that there is a general ban on imports to the EU, as well as on the provision of services related to their transfer.
"European and international companies with EU participation are prohibited from facilitating the supply of these 'sanctioned' fertilisers to third countries," it says, which affects countries in the Global South.
The targeted sanctions imposed on Russian fertilizer producing and exporting companies, as well as their main shareholders and managers, caused problems in the delivery and marketing of products on international markets. There were delays not only for potash fertilizers, but also for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers that are not subject to the sanctions regime.
Disruption in marketing chains
EU sanctions create difficulties in payments and logistics for the supply of agricultural products and fertilizers because the largest Russian banks are disconnected from the Swift system.
"In particular, some counterparties are forced to refuse direct transactions due to difficulties in making payments to Russian accounts," the article said.
At the same time as excluding Russia from the international payments system, it blackmails third countries with the threat of secondary sanctions for circumventing the restrictions, a logic that also applies to any economic operator that violates them.
The EU's aim is to do as much damage as possible to Russia's agricultural capabilities, a plan it will carry out despite knowing that the Eurasian country is a key player in food production for the world, but especially in the context of the negative consequences of the pandemic, the effects of global warming and natural disasters that have reduced agricultural production.
Theft and hoarding
As if that were not enough, Brussels is using the multilateral food trade system to its advantage by impinging on agricultural production, while food insecurity is growing in other regions.
The EU measures restrict access to the European market for Russian agricultural products, which indirectly harms global food security by encouraging price increases.
Russia exposes two key facts that indicate the hoarding of agricultural products.
On the one hand, there are solidarity corridors in the context of the conflict for a massive export of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU for processing and subsequent re-export, most of which was used for domestic consumption in Europe. On the other hand, the increase in its imports of Russian fertilizers in 2023 to remove supplies that would go to third countries if the market were to function normally.
Russia does not rule out the possibility of trying to replace fertiliser suppliers with other exporters, which would also have negative consequences for poorer countries. "It cannot be ruled out that the EU will simply start buying fertilisers intended for needy countries in other regions," the text says.
Brussels' sanctions have negative consequences for the global economy, as they disrupt logistics chains, cause difficulties with payments and delay the delivery of agricultural and fertiliser cargoes from Russia and Belarus to third countries, creating artificial shortages of products, price increases and inaccessibility for consumers.
Such hostile and illegal actions demonstrate that food security in other countries is not a priority for the EU, which Moscow believes undermines the image of a responsible player on the international stage that it seeks to project.
https://misionverdad.com/globalistan/el ... el-mundial
Google Translator
******
Category: "Not a day without Russophobia from Central Asian brothers"
September 26, 2024
Rybar
A serious incident recently occurred in Tashkent . In one of the schools, a teacher attacked a student because he asked to explain the material in Russian, adding that “Uzbekistan is for Uzbeks, and let the Russians leave . ”
Chauvinism, which is currently trending in the post-Soviet space, is becoming more and more widespread. If a couple of years ago incidents occurred occasionally, now nationalists in Central Asia walk with their heads held high.
You may ask, why? Could it be otherwise in the absence of any influence from the authorities? Somewhere they turn a blind eye to this, and somewhere, as, for example, in Kazakhstan, the president says that there is no such thing.
But incidents of oppression of the Russian-speaking population do occur from time to time, which completely contradicts the words of the same Tokayev . And in Uzbekistan they officially stated that nothing terrible happened in that school.
The position of the Uzbek authorities is clear: they declare good-neighborly relations with Russia and generally peace, friendship, chewing gum for everyone, and they do not need to disperse the incident on the Internet. However, others see this and understand that it is normal to oppress Russians.
To sum up: the lack of a normal reaction from local authorities, to which is added the inaction of our foreign policy agencies, leads to the spread of cave-like nationalism in once fraternal countries.
In their eyes, being friends with Russians becomes something shameful and disgusting, which leads to oppression based on language or nationality, and with the same approach, things will get worse.
Just imagine, uneducated Russophobes who hate Russia and its people with all their souls, but come to Russia to earn money. Can we expect them to respect our laws and order?
https://rybar.ru/rubrika-ni-dnya-bez-ru ... ih-bratev/
But what about Russian chauvinism? People get all butt-hurt when the tolls of history knock on their door. A bit of perspective is necessary.
How Russian NGOs lobbied for migration with money from the UK Foreign Office
September 25, 2024
Rybar
How Russian NGOs lobbied for migration with money from the UK Foreign Office
Some time ago it became known that six employees of the political department of the British embassy were expelled from Moscow - signs of intelligence and subversive work were found in their actions. In particular, according to the FSB, the collected evidence indicates that these spies are working with Russian oppositionists, foreign agents, anti-government media, directly coordinating protests, including lobbying for migration policy in the Russian Federation.
It was precisely one of the British spies who was stripped of her accreditation, Jessica Davenport, who supervised foreign agents Svetlana Gannushkina and Evgeny Yastrebov , who, among other things, were engaged in migration lobbying in Russia, including through the Civic Assistance Committee .
Who is Gannushkina?
It is worth noting that 82-year-old Gannushkina was declared a foreign agent two years ago, and for good reason: her track record began with membership in the Yabloko party and the creation of the Memorial society, banned and liquidated in the Russian Federation , whose main goals were rewriting history, protecting terrorists, and anti-government activities. In addition, Gannushkina worked as a member of the Council under the President of the Russian Federation for the Promotion of Civil Society Institutions and Human Rights.
It is expected that such an active person was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize more than once. However, the award has long since discredited itself, since it is awarded to a developer of chemical weapons, an inventor of lobotomy, and there were rumors that it was going to be awarded to Adolf Hitler as a "peacemaker" , and even Benito Mussolini .
Gannushkina presented herself to the intelligentsia as a human rights activist, whose activities since the 1990s had focused on multiculturalism and the problems of adaptation of labor migrants. She was also involved in the formation of an image of Russia as a "stronghold of xenophobia, racism and anti-Semitism" through her resources. In addition, in 1996, Gannushkina, based at the Memorial Center, organized the Migration and Law network , the formal task of which was to provide free legal assistance to migrants. In reality, the Network covered up ethnic groups, provided legal support to radicals and worked hard for foreign residency.
At the same time, the “Civic Assistance” committee created by Gannushkina positioned itself as a “defender of refugees”, which was an accredited partner of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
All this created a whole network of organizations, the essence of which was not only to bring migrants to the Russian Federation, but also to illegally settle them in the country with the aim of making them an electoral base for the liberal party "Yabloko", as well as to provoke internal conflicts in the country. At the same time, illegals were supported at various levels: from delivery to Russia to legal and financial assistance.
It is known that the sponsors of "Civic Assistance" were: Amnesty International, the European Commission, and the CAF-Russia foundation , which itself is financed by the British Foreign Office. The foundation acts as a financial shell for the British Foreign Office to transfer money to Russian NGOs in order to conceal the foreign origin of the funds. In the 90s, it was CAF that was the key structure that helped launch many NGOs in Russia.
Foreign Office documents leak
In 2021, it became known that the human rights activist and the Civic Assistance Committee received money directly from the UK Foreign Office for a project to "prevent xenophobia and racism among young people." True, the goals of the program included, for example, developing skills for tolerant behavior towards national minorities, holding thematic events in educational institutions, and promoting the principles of civil society.
NGOs in close cooperation should promote anti-discrimination ideas that would subsequently foster a more tolerant society towards migration. The budget for all projects under the grant was about 227 million rubles .
Gannushkina was the key collaborator in this network - the entire budget went through her, and in London she was clearly outlined the expectations of customers and KPIs for agents. Interestingly, the identification of the relationship between agents and the UK government, as well as the possibility of grant recipients being recognized as foreign agents, were highlighted as risks for the operation.
Moreover, when back in 2015 the Russian Ministry of Justice added “Civic Assistance” to the list of foreign agents, they did not even deny the presence of foreign funding and political activity.
By the way, in 2006, when the scandal with the "spy stone" thundered , during which details about the work of the British intelligence service MI-6 in Moscow, as well as the financing of the Moscow Helsinki Group and the Eurasia Foundation by the British Embassy, came to light , Gannushkina wrote a "confession" to the FSB. She stated that the activities she had been carrying out since 1990 could be recognized by the special services as "espionage", since she received funds from "UN structures, the European Union, the Council of Europe, some private Western foundations and public organizations into the accounts of non-governmental organizations." At the same time, she clearly mocked the special services, indicating that she used this money to buy products that "could contain genetically modified components that cause a persistent aversion to special operations known as "cleansing", and hallucinogens that create a false picture of trouble in the country and, in particular, in the Chechen Republic."
True, no matter how Gannushkina and others like her may sneer, in 2012 the UK itself confirmed the authenticity of the information received by Russian intelligence services in 2006. In particular, the British authorities admitted that they had installed a spy device disguised as a stone in one of the capital's parks.
By the way, even though the British admitted everything, they also tried to "shift the blame from the sick head to the healthy one" and accused Russia of having an excessive reaction and using the situation to "attack human rights activists". As is known, today in Great Britain they also say that information with evidence of anti-Russian activity on the part of embassy employees are "malicious and completely groundless accusations".
Current activities
After the start of the special operation in the so-called Ukraine, "Civic Assistance" declared support for the Kiev regime and began publishing contacts for "help for conscripts" - in fact, meaning not only ways to evade service, but also promoting separatist organizations. Those, by the way, are also all hooked on the "grant" needle of Western governments and, during the wave of partial mobilization, for example, actively spread disinformation that only representatives of national minorities in Russia were supposedly being taken to the front.
Gannushkina herself has not hidden her attitude for a long time and has spoken about the "annexation of Crimea", and has also accused Russia of accepting too few refugees and "confusing" Ukrainians with its propaganda. At the same time, it should be noted that, for example, the activist did not consider Edward Snowden worthy of receiving protection status: she said that in his case it was simply as if the employee had quarreled with the employer and he should not be given any asylum.
Gannushkina and her supporters have long focused on lobbying for the liberalization of migration policy . For many years, they were engaged in the importation and naturalization of illegal immigrants, who were to become the future electoral base of the Yabloko party. At the same time, Civic Assistance used a large space in the center of Moscow, which the mayor's office had previously provided them, for free.
Our sources said that in November last year, Davenport was present at a federal event for human rights activists specializing in issues of supporting labor migrants . However, the meeting was held at the Scientific and Methodological Center "Trade Unions of Workers of the Agro-Industrial Complex" and was a surprise for the landlords, since the official organizer was the charity foundation "Peace and Progress".
Perhaps one of the most striking recent stories of migration lobbying is the case of a migrant from Afghanistan who demanded that Russian legislation be changed so that his children could receive free preschool education. He was assisted in this by the Civic Assistance Committee and the head of the organization, Gannushkina. She stated that Russian taxpayers are obliged to pay for kindergartens for foreigners because it is necessary for “cultural exchange.”
Summary
Throughout her long so-called human rights activities, Gannushkina systematically and methodically worked in the interests of the British government. In fact, with her help, a ramified system was created in the Russian Federation not just for the import of migrants, but also for their settlement in the country on their own rights, legal, financial support and lobbying.
The implemented projects were supposedly aimed at developing civil society in Russia, but in reality all the cogs of the system were focused on provocations and escalation of internal conflicts. It is quite possible that new intelligence officers will be sent from London to replace the ones expelled, who will not change the general strategy and will continue attempts to undermine the domestic political and socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation. However, now the British attempts to interfere in the migration agenda will be under special surveillance.
https://rybar.ru/kak-rossijskie-nko-lob ... obritanii/
Google Translator
The spooks have learned to weaponize human rights. This is a major aspect of 'soft power'. Samantha Power is more despicable than many imperialist blowhards.
******
A volunteer was detained
September 25, 11:08
Former Sochi Mayor Alexey Kopaigorodsky, who resigned in the spring and volunteered for the SVO, has been detained at the front.
Kopaigorodsky was detained in Lugansk and transferred to Moscow. His wife and a number of other people are being searched.
It is known that investigative actions are being carried out against him, apparently related to his activities as mayor of Sochi.
After his departure, arrests were made in the city related to corruption cases and the sale of cemetery plots. However, no public charges have been brought against him yet.
This case could be significant, especially if Kopaigorodsky is charged - it will obviously look like he will not be able to hide from charges of official crimes in the SVO zone. First the investigation and trial, then the verdict, and then you can think about a trip to the SVO. I am waiting with interest for the results of the investigation.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9403007.html
General Popov's case will be heard in Tambov
September 26, 15:07
The case of the former commander of the 58th Army, Major General Popov, has been submitted to the Tambov Garrison Military Court, which will consider the general's charges of fraud with metal structures and official forgery, which were to be used in the construction of fortifications in the Zaporizhia region. Popov's defense is going to seek to transfer the trial to the Zaporizhia region, where the events of which Popov is accused took place.
As in the case of other high-profile cases in the Ministry of Defense, we are waiting for official findings, and in the case of Popov - a court decision.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9405591.html
Google Translator
Sep 25, 2024 , 5:38 pm .
The Federation is the world's leading exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, the second largest supplier of potassium and the third largest exporter of phosphate fertilizers (Photo: Archive)
The sanctions of the European Union (EU) against Russia and Belarus interfere with the export dynamics of these countries and cause obstacles in the supply of agricultural products and fertilizers to Latin America, Africa and Asia. This is stated by the Embassy of the Russian Federation in an article published on its official website , where it exposes how these measures of economic and commercial war against the country endanger food production on a global scale.
Russia is an indispensable producer for global food security not only because it is the largest supplier of wheat but also because it plays an important role in the international fertilizer trade. The Federation is the world's leading exporter of nitrogen fertilizers , the second largest supplier of potassium and the third largest exporter of phosphate fertilizers.
The article published by the embassy systematizes the consequences of the anti-Russian policy on the market of agricultural products and fertilizers, and reveals that there is a general ban on imports to the EU, as well as on the provision of services related to their transfer.
"European and international companies with EU participation are prohibited from facilitating the supply of these 'sanctioned' fertilisers to third countries," it says, which affects countries in the Global South.
The targeted sanctions imposed on Russian fertilizer producing and exporting companies, as well as their main shareholders and managers, caused problems in the delivery and marketing of products on international markets. There were delays not only for potash fertilizers, but also for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers that are not subject to the sanctions regime.
Disruption in marketing chains
EU sanctions create difficulties in payments and logistics for the supply of agricultural products and fertilizers because the largest Russian banks are disconnected from the Swift system.
"In particular, some counterparties are forced to refuse direct transactions due to difficulties in making payments to Russian accounts," the article said.
At the same time as excluding Russia from the international payments system, it blackmails third countries with the threat of secondary sanctions for circumventing the restrictions, a logic that also applies to any economic operator that violates them.
The EU's aim is to do as much damage as possible to Russia's agricultural capabilities, a plan it will carry out despite knowing that the Eurasian country is a key player in food production for the world, but especially in the context of the negative consequences of the pandemic, the effects of global warming and natural disasters that have reduced agricultural production.
Theft and hoarding
As if that were not enough, Brussels is using the multilateral food trade system to its advantage by impinging on agricultural production, while food insecurity is growing in other regions.
The EU measures restrict access to the European market for Russian agricultural products, which indirectly harms global food security by encouraging price increases.
Russia exposes two key facts that indicate the hoarding of agricultural products.
On the one hand, there are solidarity corridors in the context of the conflict for a massive export of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU for processing and subsequent re-export, most of which was used for domestic consumption in Europe. On the other hand, the increase in its imports of Russian fertilizers in 2023 to remove supplies that would go to third countries if the market were to function normally.
Russia does not rule out the possibility of trying to replace fertiliser suppliers with other exporters, which would also have negative consequences for poorer countries. "It cannot be ruled out that the EU will simply start buying fertilisers intended for needy countries in other regions," the text says.
Brussels' sanctions have negative consequences for the global economy, as they disrupt logistics chains, cause difficulties with payments and delay the delivery of agricultural and fertiliser cargoes from Russia and Belarus to third countries, creating artificial shortages of products, price increases and inaccessibility for consumers.
Such hostile and illegal actions demonstrate that food security in other countries is not a priority for the EU, which Moscow believes undermines the image of a responsible player on the international stage that it seeks to project.
https://misionverdad.com/globalistan/el ... el-mundial
Google Translator
******
Category: "Not a day without Russophobia from Central Asian brothers"
September 26, 2024
Rybar
A serious incident recently occurred in Tashkent . In one of the schools, a teacher attacked a student because he asked to explain the material in Russian, adding that “Uzbekistan is for Uzbeks, and let the Russians leave . ”
Chauvinism, which is currently trending in the post-Soviet space, is becoming more and more widespread. If a couple of years ago incidents occurred occasionally, now nationalists in Central Asia walk with their heads held high.
You may ask, why? Could it be otherwise in the absence of any influence from the authorities? Somewhere they turn a blind eye to this, and somewhere, as, for example, in Kazakhstan, the president says that there is no such thing.
But incidents of oppression of the Russian-speaking population do occur from time to time, which completely contradicts the words of the same Tokayev . And in Uzbekistan they officially stated that nothing terrible happened in that school.
The position of the Uzbek authorities is clear: they declare good-neighborly relations with Russia and generally peace, friendship, chewing gum for everyone, and they do not need to disperse the incident on the Internet. However, others see this and understand that it is normal to oppress Russians.
To sum up: the lack of a normal reaction from local authorities, to which is added the inaction of our foreign policy agencies, leads to the spread of cave-like nationalism in once fraternal countries.
In their eyes, being friends with Russians becomes something shameful and disgusting, which leads to oppression based on language or nationality, and with the same approach, things will get worse.
Just imagine, uneducated Russophobes who hate Russia and its people with all their souls, but come to Russia to earn money. Can we expect them to respect our laws and order?
https://rybar.ru/rubrika-ni-dnya-bez-ru ... ih-bratev/
But what about Russian chauvinism? People get all butt-hurt when the tolls of history knock on their door. A bit of perspective is necessary.
How Russian NGOs lobbied for migration with money from the UK Foreign Office
September 25, 2024
Rybar
How Russian NGOs lobbied for migration with money from the UK Foreign Office
Some time ago it became known that six employees of the political department of the British embassy were expelled from Moscow - signs of intelligence and subversive work were found in their actions. In particular, according to the FSB, the collected evidence indicates that these spies are working with Russian oppositionists, foreign agents, anti-government media, directly coordinating protests, including lobbying for migration policy in the Russian Federation.
It was precisely one of the British spies who was stripped of her accreditation, Jessica Davenport, who supervised foreign agents Svetlana Gannushkina and Evgeny Yastrebov , who, among other things, were engaged in migration lobbying in Russia, including through the Civic Assistance Committee .
Who is Gannushkina?
It is worth noting that 82-year-old Gannushkina was declared a foreign agent two years ago, and for good reason: her track record began with membership in the Yabloko party and the creation of the Memorial society, banned and liquidated in the Russian Federation , whose main goals were rewriting history, protecting terrorists, and anti-government activities. In addition, Gannushkina worked as a member of the Council under the President of the Russian Federation for the Promotion of Civil Society Institutions and Human Rights.
It is expected that such an active person was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize more than once. However, the award has long since discredited itself, since it is awarded to a developer of chemical weapons, an inventor of lobotomy, and there were rumors that it was going to be awarded to Adolf Hitler as a "peacemaker" , and even Benito Mussolini .
Gannushkina presented herself to the intelligentsia as a human rights activist, whose activities since the 1990s had focused on multiculturalism and the problems of adaptation of labor migrants. She was also involved in the formation of an image of Russia as a "stronghold of xenophobia, racism and anti-Semitism" through her resources. In addition, in 1996, Gannushkina, based at the Memorial Center, organized the Migration and Law network , the formal task of which was to provide free legal assistance to migrants. In reality, the Network covered up ethnic groups, provided legal support to radicals and worked hard for foreign residency.
At the same time, the “Civic Assistance” committee created by Gannushkina positioned itself as a “defender of refugees”, which was an accredited partner of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
All this created a whole network of organizations, the essence of which was not only to bring migrants to the Russian Federation, but also to illegally settle them in the country with the aim of making them an electoral base for the liberal party "Yabloko", as well as to provoke internal conflicts in the country. At the same time, illegals were supported at various levels: from delivery to Russia to legal and financial assistance.
It is known that the sponsors of "Civic Assistance" were: Amnesty International, the European Commission, and the CAF-Russia foundation , which itself is financed by the British Foreign Office. The foundation acts as a financial shell for the British Foreign Office to transfer money to Russian NGOs in order to conceal the foreign origin of the funds. In the 90s, it was CAF that was the key structure that helped launch many NGOs in Russia.
Foreign Office documents leak
In 2021, it became known that the human rights activist and the Civic Assistance Committee received money directly from the UK Foreign Office for a project to "prevent xenophobia and racism among young people." True, the goals of the program included, for example, developing skills for tolerant behavior towards national minorities, holding thematic events in educational institutions, and promoting the principles of civil society.
NGOs in close cooperation should promote anti-discrimination ideas that would subsequently foster a more tolerant society towards migration. The budget for all projects under the grant was about 227 million rubles .
Gannushkina was the key collaborator in this network - the entire budget went through her, and in London she was clearly outlined the expectations of customers and KPIs for agents. Interestingly, the identification of the relationship between agents and the UK government, as well as the possibility of grant recipients being recognized as foreign agents, were highlighted as risks for the operation.
Moreover, when back in 2015 the Russian Ministry of Justice added “Civic Assistance” to the list of foreign agents, they did not even deny the presence of foreign funding and political activity.
By the way, in 2006, when the scandal with the "spy stone" thundered , during which details about the work of the British intelligence service MI-6 in Moscow, as well as the financing of the Moscow Helsinki Group and the Eurasia Foundation by the British Embassy, came to light , Gannushkina wrote a "confession" to the FSB. She stated that the activities she had been carrying out since 1990 could be recognized by the special services as "espionage", since she received funds from "UN structures, the European Union, the Council of Europe, some private Western foundations and public organizations into the accounts of non-governmental organizations." At the same time, she clearly mocked the special services, indicating that she used this money to buy products that "could contain genetically modified components that cause a persistent aversion to special operations known as "cleansing", and hallucinogens that create a false picture of trouble in the country and, in particular, in the Chechen Republic."
True, no matter how Gannushkina and others like her may sneer, in 2012 the UK itself confirmed the authenticity of the information received by Russian intelligence services in 2006. In particular, the British authorities admitted that they had installed a spy device disguised as a stone in one of the capital's parks.
By the way, even though the British admitted everything, they also tried to "shift the blame from the sick head to the healthy one" and accused Russia of having an excessive reaction and using the situation to "attack human rights activists". As is known, today in Great Britain they also say that information with evidence of anti-Russian activity on the part of embassy employees are "malicious and completely groundless accusations".
Current activities
After the start of the special operation in the so-called Ukraine, "Civic Assistance" declared support for the Kiev regime and began publishing contacts for "help for conscripts" - in fact, meaning not only ways to evade service, but also promoting separatist organizations. Those, by the way, are also all hooked on the "grant" needle of Western governments and, during the wave of partial mobilization, for example, actively spread disinformation that only representatives of national minorities in Russia were supposedly being taken to the front.
Gannushkina herself has not hidden her attitude for a long time and has spoken about the "annexation of Crimea", and has also accused Russia of accepting too few refugees and "confusing" Ukrainians with its propaganda. At the same time, it should be noted that, for example, the activist did not consider Edward Snowden worthy of receiving protection status: she said that in his case it was simply as if the employee had quarreled with the employer and he should not be given any asylum.
Gannushkina and her supporters have long focused on lobbying for the liberalization of migration policy . For many years, they were engaged in the importation and naturalization of illegal immigrants, who were to become the future electoral base of the Yabloko party. At the same time, Civic Assistance used a large space in the center of Moscow, which the mayor's office had previously provided them, for free.
Our sources said that in November last year, Davenport was present at a federal event for human rights activists specializing in issues of supporting labor migrants . However, the meeting was held at the Scientific and Methodological Center "Trade Unions of Workers of the Agro-Industrial Complex" and was a surprise for the landlords, since the official organizer was the charity foundation "Peace and Progress".
Perhaps one of the most striking recent stories of migration lobbying is the case of a migrant from Afghanistan who demanded that Russian legislation be changed so that his children could receive free preschool education. He was assisted in this by the Civic Assistance Committee and the head of the organization, Gannushkina. She stated that Russian taxpayers are obliged to pay for kindergartens for foreigners because it is necessary for “cultural exchange.”
Summary
Throughout her long so-called human rights activities, Gannushkina systematically and methodically worked in the interests of the British government. In fact, with her help, a ramified system was created in the Russian Federation not just for the import of migrants, but also for their settlement in the country on their own rights, legal, financial support and lobbying.
The implemented projects were supposedly aimed at developing civil society in Russia, but in reality all the cogs of the system were focused on provocations and escalation of internal conflicts. It is quite possible that new intelligence officers will be sent from London to replace the ones expelled, who will not change the general strategy and will continue attempts to undermine the domestic political and socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation. However, now the British attempts to interfere in the migration agenda will be under special surveillance.
https://rybar.ru/kak-rossijskie-nko-lob ... obritanii/
Google Translator
The spooks have learned to weaponize human rights. This is a major aspect of 'soft power'. Samantha Power is more despicable than many imperialist blowhards.
******
A volunteer was detained
September 25, 11:08
Former Sochi Mayor Alexey Kopaigorodsky, who resigned in the spring and volunteered for the SVO, has been detained at the front.
Kopaigorodsky was detained in Lugansk and transferred to Moscow. His wife and a number of other people are being searched.
It is known that investigative actions are being carried out against him, apparently related to his activities as mayor of Sochi.
After his departure, arrests were made in the city related to corruption cases and the sale of cemetery plots. However, no public charges have been brought against him yet.
This case could be significant, especially if Kopaigorodsky is charged - it will obviously look like he will not be able to hide from charges of official crimes in the SVO zone. First the investigation and trial, then the verdict, and then you can think about a trip to the SVO. I am waiting with interest for the results of the investigation.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9403007.html
General Popov's case will be heard in Tambov
September 26, 15:07
The case of the former commander of the 58th Army, Major General Popov, has been submitted to the Tambov Garrison Military Court, which will consider the general's charges of fraud with metal structures and official forgery, which were to be used in the construction of fortifications in the Zaporizhia region. Popov's defense is going to seek to transfer the trial to the Zaporizhia region, where the events of which Popov is accused took place.
As in the case of other high-profile cases in the Ministry of Defense, we are waiting for official findings, and in the case of Popov - a court decision.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9405591.html
Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
October 5, 2024 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
West Asian crisis prompts Biden to break ice with Putin
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) met Prime Minister of Russia Mikhail Mishustin (L), Tehran, October 30, 2024
The US president Joe Biden sprang a surprise during a press gaggle with reporters outside the White House on Thursday when he essentially didn’t rule out a potential meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the upcoming summits of the Group of 20 or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Biden sort of signalled, ‘Barkis is willing.’ As he put it, “I doubt that Putin will show up.”
As these White House gaggles generally go, Biden deliberately chose to respond to the TASS correspondent who asked the question, who of course knew that Biden knew that a trip by Putin to the Western Hemisphere to attend the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on November 18-19 is under active consideration in the Kremlin.
Biden and Putin have a lot to talk about but what adds up is that Biden signalled his interest in a conversation just a day after the massive Iranian missile strike against Israel, which came as a bolt from the blue and dramatically upended the legacy of his presidency.
Don’t be surprised if the Middle East crisis dominates a Biden-Putin summit in Rio de Janeiro — that is, if such a meeting takes place. The Ukraine war is coasting inexorably toward a Russian victory. Biden’s interest lies in making sure somehow that Ukraine’s capitulation — and NATO’s humiliation — get carried over to January 20. But Putin must cooperate. This is one thing.
Meanwhile, what causes sleepless nights for Biden is the situation in the Middle East, which may cascade uncontrollably toward a regional war. Here, Putin is not the problem but can be the solution. This needs some explaining.
To be sure, policy differences have arisen between Biden and Netanyahu which is only to be expected given their sense of priorities respectively as politicians. It may seem the current crisis in the US-Israeli relationship is rather severe but how much of it is for the optics or, how little of it is for real is the moot point. Certainly, even a transition from war to a new diplomatic order is currently not in the cards.
However, the US and Israel are also joined at the hips. There is no question that Biden is allowing seamless assistance to flow to Israel in its war effort and for keeping its economy afloat. And the US is blocking all moves in the UN Security Council calling for a ceasefire, which means that peacemaking efforts cannot even begin.
Iran’s missile attack on Israel, in this context, needs to be put in perspective. Rather than an act of belligerence, it can be seen as a coercive measure to force Israel to abandon its ground operation in Lebanon. President Masoud Pezeshkian has disclosed that Iran exercised utmost restraint so far to stop Israeli atrocities only because of pleas by Western leaders that negotiations leading to a potential ceasefire in Gaza were at a crucial stage. But the West didn’t keep its promise leaving Iran no option but to act.
Passivity or inaction in the face of Israel’s relentless rampage against the Palestinian population aimed at ethnic cleansing created a distressing situation for Iran as the saviour of oppressed Muslims. Besides, Iran’s entire strategy of deterrence came under challenge too.
Biden is today like a cat on a hot tin roof. A Middle Eastern war is the last thing he wants. But he has no control over Netanyahu who is already plotting the next move on the escalation ladder. As for Iran, its sense of exasperation over western perfidy and moral bankruptcy is palpable. The US’ credibility has suffered a severe beating all across the West Asian region.
Enter Putin. On the Middle Eastern chessboard, Russia’s role assumes great importance. Russia-Iran relations touch an unprecedented level today. Russian statements have become highly critical of Israel in recent years. Russia has openly kept contacts with the groups constituting the Axis of Resistance.
Russian diplomacy is moving with a ‘big picture’ in mind to bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the centre stage of international politics. In the past year, security consultations between Moscow and Tehran notably intensified. Some reports have appeared about Russia transferring advanced military equipment to strengthen Iran’s air defence capabilities.
Significantly, Russia was the only country that Iran informed in advance about its missile strike against Israel. According to the well-known US podcast Judge Napolitano: Judging Freedom (below), the Russian naval fleet in the East Mediterranean downed 13 Israeli missiles last week near Lebanon.
Apparently, a frantic Netanyahu has been trying to reach Putin on phone for the past few days but the call is yet to materialise. On the diplomatic track too, Russia has underscored the highest importance it attaches to the relations with Iran.
Clearly, the US senses the imperative to engage with Russia. What may be acceptable can be proportional strikes by the two West Asian protagonists, couched in carefully calibrated media campaigns. For example, targeted attacks on individual military installations, which would save face for Israel and avoid a major war — it’s a preferable scenario for Iran too, because it avoids unnecessary risks and preserves the trump cards for a game that promises to be long drawn out.
In the final analysis, what matters is the US-Israeli intentions. The Financial Times cited Israeli sources to the effect that the game plan is to inflict maximum damage to Iran’s economy so as to trigger the latent ‘protest potential’ of Iranian society. The Israeli hope is apparently that a credible regime change agenda will find resonance in Washington and attract US intervention.
Anyway, Biden’s move to engage with Putin suggests that a US military intervention is to be ruled out. On the other hand, the historic Russian—Iranian security pact, which is expected to be signed during the forthcoming BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 20-22, gives Iran vastly more strategic depth to negotiate with the West.
Russia’s own interest lies in boosting Iran’s defence capability and pressing ahead with broad-based bilateral cooperation anchored on the economic agenda in the conditions under sanctions while on a parallel track advancing Iran’s integration into Moscow’s Greater Eurasia project. In short, Russia is uniquely placed today as a stakeholder in a stable and predictable Iran at peace with itself and the region.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told reporters in Moscow Thursday, “We are in the closest contact with Iran on the current situation. We share a wonderful experience of cooperation in various fields. I think this is the moment when our relations are particularly important.” By the way, President Pezeshkian received the visiting Prime Minister of Russia Mikhail Mishustin on Monday, September 30 in Tehran just hours ahead of the launch of the Iranian ballistic missiles against Israel.
At a meeting of the UN Security Council dedicated to West Asian developments, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya stated on Wednesday, “As part of its mandate to maintain international peace and security, the UN Security Council must compel Israel to immediately cease hostilities. You and I also should make every effort to create conditions for a political and diplomatic settlement. In this context, we take note of Tehran’s signal that it is not willing to whip up confrontation any further.”
Interestingly, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov lost no time to pick up the threads of Biden’s remark on a meeting with Putin. He said on Friday, “There have been no talks on this issue and as of today, at this moment, there are no prerequisites for it. However, the president has repeatedly stated that he remained open for all contacts.”
https://www.indianpunchline.com/west-as ... ith-putin/
******
Russia Matters: Russia Takes Strategically Important Town of Vuhledar; Stoltenberg Suggests Ukraine Bear With Territorial Loss
October 6, 2024 natyliesb
Russia Matters, 10/4/24
4 Things to Know
Ukrainian armed forces have abandoned the strategically important town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region this week. Control of this eastern town is considered important by both sides due to its position on elevated ground and its place at the intersection of the eastern and southern battlefield fronts, giving it added significance for supplying both sides’ forces, according to Reuters. Vuhledar’s strategic importance is further heightened by its proximity to a rail line connecting Donbas in the east to Crimea in the south, according to Al Jazeera.
When asked by FT what he would propose to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Jens Stoltenberg demurred, then suggested a historical comparison. “Finland fought a brave war against the Soviet Union in ’39. They imposed much bigger costs on the Red Army than expected… The war ended with them giving up 10% of the territory. But they got a secure border,” said Stoltenberg, who served as NATO’s general secretary until Oct. 1.
Russia’s Defense Ministry will soon have the authority to determine whether the conditions for using nuclear weapons are met, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sept. 29, according to MT. The Russian presidential spokesman said that the amendments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which were announced by Putin last week and which would liberalize Russia’s conditions for nuclear use as the U.S. deliberates whether to allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied longer-range missiles against targets in Russia, will be legally formalized soon. When asked to comment on Putin’s announcement, his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters at the U.N. in New York, “We expect that those who are interested in our approaches will listen… When it finally becomes clear whether they allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons or not, we will see how they understood what they heard.”
Russia plans to increase state spending on national defense by a quarter in 2025 to 6.3% of GDP, marking a new post-Soviet high, according to draft budget documents published this week and seen by Reuters. Defense spending will rise to 13.5 trillion rubles ($145 billion) next year, according to these documents. Russia lags behind the U.S. and China in terms of defense spending last year, as measured by SIPRI in current dollars and exchange rates. If measured in purchasing power parity terms, however, the gap between the U.S. and Russia in defense spending would be substantially narrower.*
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/rus ... rial-loss/
Renowned MIT scientist Ted Postol discusses the state of arms control between the US and Russia
October 7, 2024
MIT professor emeritus Ted Postol talks with ACURA’s David Speedie and James W. Carden on arms control, the war in Ukraine and the dangers of escalation. (Video ends abruptly due to time constraints).
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/ren ... nd-russia/
******
Timur Ivanov accused of embezzlement of 3.2 billion rubles
October 7, 10:31
Former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov has been charged with embezzlement on an especially large scale.
The new criminal case is related to the theft of over ₽3.2 billion from Interkommerts Bank.
One of his former subordinates testified against Ivanov.
The total amount of damage caused to the state by Timur Ivanov continues to grow, now it is already almost 6 billion.
They will obviously dig up even more on him by the time of the trial + we will probably see new defendants.
Timur Ivanov stated that he is not guilty of anything. Earlier, he was denied a transfer from a pretrial detention center to house arrest.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9424941.html
Cryptomajor
October 8, 14:24
Former investigator of the Investigative Committee, Major Tambiev, continues to deny in court that he received a bribe of 7,300,000,000 rubles in cryptocurrency and $2.8 million in other cases. Tambiev only agrees to be stripped of his rank and nothing more.
At the same time, Tambiev himself was caught red-handed while receiving a bribe of 26,000,000 rubles.
The prosecution demands that Tambiev be imprisoned for 20 years for bribery on an especially large scale and causing damage in the amount of 14,000,000,000 rubles, which, due to the actions of Major Tambiev, were not converted to state revenue.
Tambiev also managed to spend more than 5,000,000,000 rubles in cryptocurrency somewhere, since they found only 1,600,000,000 worth of bitcoin on his computer at home. They are going to demand a fine of 500,000,000 rubles from Tambiev.
Against this background, bribe takers who take a couple of million rubles look like homeless people.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9427255.html
Google Translator
******
Here’s What Putin Will Probably Discuss With Pezeshkian
Andrew Korybko
Oct 08, 2024
Their meeting will be important, but not in the way that some have convinced themselves it will be with regard to imagining that Russia will promise to support Iran if it enters into a full-scale hot war with Israel.
Putin plans to meet with new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at an event in Turkmenistan on Friday celebrating that host country’s most famous poet. The Russian leader’s attendance there was previously unannounced so it’s obvious that recent events prompted him to take time out of his busy schedule to meet with his Iranian counterpart for the first time since the latter took office this summer. Here’s what they’ll likely discuss:
----------
1. Iran’s Response To Israel’s Expected Retaliation
Israel has delayed what many expected to be its immediate response to Iran’s latest missile strike, which sets the precedent for Iran also possibly delaying its response to Israel’s seemingly inevitable retaliation, especially if it happens before Friday. Putin doesn’t want these back-and-forth attacks to lead to a larger war so he’ll likely lean on Pezeshkian to exercise restraint. For its part, Iran wants to learn what support Russia might provide it in the worst-case scenario, though it’ll probably be disappointed.
2. Defense Systems For Deterrence & De-Escalation
Building upon the above, it’s also possible that Putin will offer Pezeshkian state-of-the-art Russian air defense systems as part of his country’s policy of deterring a large-scale Israeli response for de-escalation purposes, though the equipment might not come in time (if it hasn’t already arrived per prior rumors). From Russia’s perspective, shooting down incoming Israeli missiles (if that’s how Israel responds) like Israel shot down incoming Iranian ones in spring could lead to a mutually “face-saving” lull in hostilities.
3. Their Updated Strategic Partnership Document
The Iranian Ambassador to Russia confirmed earlier this month that the updated Russian-Iranian Strategic Partnership document is ready for signing and could either happen on the sidelines of the upcoming BRICS Summit or at another time as part of a bilateral visit. These options will probably be discussed between Putin and Pezeshkian, who might also negotiate secret clauses such as those involving clandestine arms transfers per the prior and proceeding points.
4. Speculative Iranian Military Exports To Russia
Both sides have denied it, but reports have circulated for a while about Iranian drone and missile exports to Russia, which their leaders might also discuss during their upcoming meeting. If such clandestine transfers are indeed taking place, then Russia will want to learn whether they’ll continue in light of Iran’s newfound direct hostilities with Israel. Ensuring that their conflict doesn’t spiral out of control might therefore also be meant to ensure that more Iranian arms are available for Russia to buy.
5. Their Disagreement Over The Zangezur Corridor
The Russian-Iranian disagreement over the Zangezur Corridor was elaborated on here last month, but it still remains and will therefore likely also be discussed by Putin and Pezeshkian. After all, it’s serious enough that Iran summoned the Russian Ambassador to complain, yet neither side has publicly changed their stance on this sensitive issue. If it continues to be an irritant in their ties, then the signing of their strategic partnership document might be delayed and Russian-Indian trade via Iran could be impeded.
----------
The Putin-Pezeshkian meeting will be important, but not in the way that some have convinced themselves it will be with regard to imagining that Russia will promise to support Iran if it enters into a full-scale hot war with Israel. Their leaders will discuss regional tensions, but the most that Russia is expected to do is possibly sell state-of-the-art air defense systems to Iran for deterrence and de-escalation purposes. Their meeting won’t be a game-changer and won’t reshape regional dynamics.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/heres-wh ... ly-discuss
West Asian crisis prompts Biden to break ice with Putin
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) met Prime Minister of Russia Mikhail Mishustin (L), Tehran, October 30, 2024
The US president Joe Biden sprang a surprise during a press gaggle with reporters outside the White House on Thursday when he essentially didn’t rule out a potential meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the upcoming summits of the Group of 20 or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Biden sort of signalled, ‘Barkis is willing.’ As he put it, “I doubt that Putin will show up.”
As these White House gaggles generally go, Biden deliberately chose to respond to the TASS correspondent who asked the question, who of course knew that Biden knew that a trip by Putin to the Western Hemisphere to attend the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on November 18-19 is under active consideration in the Kremlin.
Biden and Putin have a lot to talk about but what adds up is that Biden signalled his interest in a conversation just a day after the massive Iranian missile strike against Israel, which came as a bolt from the blue and dramatically upended the legacy of his presidency.
Don’t be surprised if the Middle East crisis dominates a Biden-Putin summit in Rio de Janeiro — that is, if such a meeting takes place. The Ukraine war is coasting inexorably toward a Russian victory. Biden’s interest lies in making sure somehow that Ukraine’s capitulation — and NATO’s humiliation — get carried over to January 20. But Putin must cooperate. This is one thing.
Meanwhile, what causes sleepless nights for Biden is the situation in the Middle East, which may cascade uncontrollably toward a regional war. Here, Putin is not the problem but can be the solution. This needs some explaining.
To be sure, policy differences have arisen between Biden and Netanyahu which is only to be expected given their sense of priorities respectively as politicians. It may seem the current crisis in the US-Israeli relationship is rather severe but how much of it is for the optics or, how little of it is for real is the moot point. Certainly, even a transition from war to a new diplomatic order is currently not in the cards.
However, the US and Israel are also joined at the hips. There is no question that Biden is allowing seamless assistance to flow to Israel in its war effort and for keeping its economy afloat. And the US is blocking all moves in the UN Security Council calling for a ceasefire, which means that peacemaking efforts cannot even begin.
Iran’s missile attack on Israel, in this context, needs to be put in perspective. Rather than an act of belligerence, it can be seen as a coercive measure to force Israel to abandon its ground operation in Lebanon. President Masoud Pezeshkian has disclosed that Iran exercised utmost restraint so far to stop Israeli atrocities only because of pleas by Western leaders that negotiations leading to a potential ceasefire in Gaza were at a crucial stage. But the West didn’t keep its promise leaving Iran no option but to act.
Passivity or inaction in the face of Israel’s relentless rampage against the Palestinian population aimed at ethnic cleansing created a distressing situation for Iran as the saviour of oppressed Muslims. Besides, Iran’s entire strategy of deterrence came under challenge too.
Biden is today like a cat on a hot tin roof. A Middle Eastern war is the last thing he wants. But he has no control over Netanyahu who is already plotting the next move on the escalation ladder. As for Iran, its sense of exasperation over western perfidy and moral bankruptcy is palpable. The US’ credibility has suffered a severe beating all across the West Asian region.
Enter Putin. On the Middle Eastern chessboard, Russia’s role assumes great importance. Russia-Iran relations touch an unprecedented level today. Russian statements have become highly critical of Israel in recent years. Russia has openly kept contacts with the groups constituting the Axis of Resistance.
Russian diplomacy is moving with a ‘big picture’ in mind to bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the centre stage of international politics. In the past year, security consultations between Moscow and Tehran notably intensified. Some reports have appeared about Russia transferring advanced military equipment to strengthen Iran’s air defence capabilities.
Significantly, Russia was the only country that Iran informed in advance about its missile strike against Israel. According to the well-known US podcast Judge Napolitano: Judging Freedom (below), the Russian naval fleet in the East Mediterranean downed 13 Israeli missiles last week near Lebanon.
Apparently, a frantic Netanyahu has been trying to reach Putin on phone for the past few days but the call is yet to materialise. On the diplomatic track too, Russia has underscored the highest importance it attaches to the relations with Iran.
Clearly, the US senses the imperative to engage with Russia. What may be acceptable can be proportional strikes by the two West Asian protagonists, couched in carefully calibrated media campaigns. For example, targeted attacks on individual military installations, which would save face for Israel and avoid a major war — it’s a preferable scenario for Iran too, because it avoids unnecessary risks and preserves the trump cards for a game that promises to be long drawn out.
In the final analysis, what matters is the US-Israeli intentions. The Financial Times cited Israeli sources to the effect that the game plan is to inflict maximum damage to Iran’s economy so as to trigger the latent ‘protest potential’ of Iranian society. The Israeli hope is apparently that a credible regime change agenda will find resonance in Washington and attract US intervention.
Anyway, Biden’s move to engage with Putin suggests that a US military intervention is to be ruled out. On the other hand, the historic Russian—Iranian security pact, which is expected to be signed during the forthcoming BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 20-22, gives Iran vastly more strategic depth to negotiate with the West.
Russia’s own interest lies in boosting Iran’s defence capability and pressing ahead with broad-based bilateral cooperation anchored on the economic agenda in the conditions under sanctions while on a parallel track advancing Iran’s integration into Moscow’s Greater Eurasia project. In short, Russia is uniquely placed today as a stakeholder in a stable and predictable Iran at peace with itself and the region.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told reporters in Moscow Thursday, “We are in the closest contact with Iran on the current situation. We share a wonderful experience of cooperation in various fields. I think this is the moment when our relations are particularly important.” By the way, President Pezeshkian received the visiting Prime Minister of Russia Mikhail Mishustin on Monday, September 30 in Tehran just hours ahead of the launch of the Iranian ballistic missiles against Israel.
At a meeting of the UN Security Council dedicated to West Asian developments, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya stated on Wednesday, “As part of its mandate to maintain international peace and security, the UN Security Council must compel Israel to immediately cease hostilities. You and I also should make every effort to create conditions for a political and diplomatic settlement. In this context, we take note of Tehran’s signal that it is not willing to whip up confrontation any further.”
Interestingly, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov lost no time to pick up the threads of Biden’s remark on a meeting with Putin. He said on Friday, “There have been no talks on this issue and as of today, at this moment, there are no prerequisites for it. However, the president has repeatedly stated that he remained open for all contacts.”
https://www.indianpunchline.com/west-as ... ith-putin/
******
Russia Matters: Russia Takes Strategically Important Town of Vuhledar; Stoltenberg Suggests Ukraine Bear With Territorial Loss
October 6, 2024 natyliesb
Russia Matters, 10/4/24
4 Things to Know
Ukrainian armed forces have abandoned the strategically important town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region this week. Control of this eastern town is considered important by both sides due to its position on elevated ground and its place at the intersection of the eastern and southern battlefield fronts, giving it added significance for supplying both sides’ forces, according to Reuters. Vuhledar’s strategic importance is further heightened by its proximity to a rail line connecting Donbas in the east to Crimea in the south, according to Al Jazeera.
When asked by FT what he would propose to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Jens Stoltenberg demurred, then suggested a historical comparison. “Finland fought a brave war against the Soviet Union in ’39. They imposed much bigger costs on the Red Army than expected… The war ended with them giving up 10% of the territory. But they got a secure border,” said Stoltenberg, who served as NATO’s general secretary until Oct. 1.
Russia’s Defense Ministry will soon have the authority to determine whether the conditions for using nuclear weapons are met, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sept. 29, according to MT. The Russian presidential spokesman said that the amendments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which were announced by Putin last week and which would liberalize Russia’s conditions for nuclear use as the U.S. deliberates whether to allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied longer-range missiles against targets in Russia, will be legally formalized soon. When asked to comment on Putin’s announcement, his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters at the U.N. in New York, “We expect that those who are interested in our approaches will listen… When it finally becomes clear whether they allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons or not, we will see how they understood what they heard.”
Russia plans to increase state spending on national defense by a quarter in 2025 to 6.3% of GDP, marking a new post-Soviet high, according to draft budget documents published this week and seen by Reuters. Defense spending will rise to 13.5 trillion rubles ($145 billion) next year, according to these documents. Russia lags behind the U.S. and China in terms of defense spending last year, as measured by SIPRI in current dollars and exchange rates. If measured in purchasing power parity terms, however, the gap between the U.S. and Russia in defense spending would be substantially narrower.*
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/rus ... rial-loss/
Renowned MIT scientist Ted Postol discusses the state of arms control between the US and Russia
October 7, 2024
MIT professor emeritus Ted Postol talks with ACURA’s David Speedie and James W. Carden on arms control, the war in Ukraine and the dangers of escalation. (Video ends abruptly due to time constraints).
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/ren ... nd-russia/
******
Timur Ivanov accused of embezzlement of 3.2 billion rubles
October 7, 10:31
Former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov has been charged with embezzlement on an especially large scale.
The new criminal case is related to the theft of over ₽3.2 billion from Interkommerts Bank.
One of his former subordinates testified against Ivanov.
The total amount of damage caused to the state by Timur Ivanov continues to grow, now it is already almost 6 billion.
They will obviously dig up even more on him by the time of the trial + we will probably see new defendants.
Timur Ivanov stated that he is not guilty of anything. Earlier, he was denied a transfer from a pretrial detention center to house arrest.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9424941.html
Cryptomajor
October 8, 14:24
Former investigator of the Investigative Committee, Major Tambiev, continues to deny in court that he received a bribe of 7,300,000,000 rubles in cryptocurrency and $2.8 million in other cases. Tambiev only agrees to be stripped of his rank and nothing more.
At the same time, Tambiev himself was caught red-handed while receiving a bribe of 26,000,000 rubles.
The prosecution demands that Tambiev be imprisoned for 20 years for bribery on an especially large scale and causing damage in the amount of 14,000,000,000 rubles, which, due to the actions of Major Tambiev, were not converted to state revenue.
Tambiev also managed to spend more than 5,000,000,000 rubles in cryptocurrency somewhere, since they found only 1,600,000,000 worth of bitcoin on his computer at home. They are going to demand a fine of 500,000,000 rubles from Tambiev.
Against this background, bribe takers who take a couple of million rubles look like homeless people.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9427255.html
Google Translator
******
Here’s What Putin Will Probably Discuss With Pezeshkian
Andrew Korybko
Oct 08, 2024
Their meeting will be important, but not in the way that some have convinced themselves it will be with regard to imagining that Russia will promise to support Iran if it enters into a full-scale hot war with Israel.
Putin plans to meet with new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at an event in Turkmenistan on Friday celebrating that host country’s most famous poet. The Russian leader’s attendance there was previously unannounced so it’s obvious that recent events prompted him to take time out of his busy schedule to meet with his Iranian counterpart for the first time since the latter took office this summer. Here’s what they’ll likely discuss:
----------
1. Iran’s Response To Israel’s Expected Retaliation
Israel has delayed what many expected to be its immediate response to Iran’s latest missile strike, which sets the precedent for Iran also possibly delaying its response to Israel’s seemingly inevitable retaliation, especially if it happens before Friday. Putin doesn’t want these back-and-forth attacks to lead to a larger war so he’ll likely lean on Pezeshkian to exercise restraint. For its part, Iran wants to learn what support Russia might provide it in the worst-case scenario, though it’ll probably be disappointed.
2. Defense Systems For Deterrence & De-Escalation
Building upon the above, it’s also possible that Putin will offer Pezeshkian state-of-the-art Russian air defense systems as part of his country’s policy of deterring a large-scale Israeli response for de-escalation purposes, though the equipment might not come in time (if it hasn’t already arrived per prior rumors). From Russia’s perspective, shooting down incoming Israeli missiles (if that’s how Israel responds) like Israel shot down incoming Iranian ones in spring could lead to a mutually “face-saving” lull in hostilities.
3. Their Updated Strategic Partnership Document
The Iranian Ambassador to Russia confirmed earlier this month that the updated Russian-Iranian Strategic Partnership document is ready for signing and could either happen on the sidelines of the upcoming BRICS Summit or at another time as part of a bilateral visit. These options will probably be discussed between Putin and Pezeshkian, who might also negotiate secret clauses such as those involving clandestine arms transfers per the prior and proceeding points.
4. Speculative Iranian Military Exports To Russia
Both sides have denied it, but reports have circulated for a while about Iranian drone and missile exports to Russia, which their leaders might also discuss during their upcoming meeting. If such clandestine transfers are indeed taking place, then Russia will want to learn whether they’ll continue in light of Iran’s newfound direct hostilities with Israel. Ensuring that their conflict doesn’t spiral out of control might therefore also be meant to ensure that more Iranian arms are available for Russia to buy.
5. Their Disagreement Over The Zangezur Corridor
The Russian-Iranian disagreement over the Zangezur Corridor was elaborated on here last month, but it still remains and will therefore likely also be discussed by Putin and Pezeshkian. After all, it’s serious enough that Iran summoned the Russian Ambassador to complain, yet neither side has publicly changed their stance on this sensitive issue. If it continues to be an irritant in their ties, then the signing of their strategic partnership document might be delayed and Russian-Indian trade via Iran could be impeded.
----------
The Putin-Pezeshkian meeting will be important, but not in the way that some have convinced themselves it will be with regard to imagining that Russia will promise to support Iran if it enters into a full-scale hot war with Israel. Their leaders will discuss regional tensions, but the most that Russia is expected to do is possibly sell state-of-the-art air defense systems to Iran for deterrence and de-escalation purposes. Their meeting won’t be a game-changer and won’t reshape regional dynamics.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/heres-wh ... ly-discuss
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
2 October 2024 19:32
Article by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “On the Circumstances of the Division of Austria and Germany into Occupation Zones,” published in the Bulletin of the Security Council of the Russian Federation No. 3 (91), 2024
1855-02-10-2024
As the great Russian historian Vasily Klyuchevsky said, “History is not a teacher but an overseer. It does not teach anyone; it merely punishes those who haven’t learnt their lessons.” Therefore, it seems appropriate to review some chapters of our history ahead of the 80th anniversary of the Great Victory, particularly in the context of the current international and foreign policy realities.
The countries of the anti-Hitler coalition regularly discussed the post-war settlement of Europe almost from the beginning of the Great Patriotic War (1941−1945). During a meeting with Soviet Ambassador in London Ivan Maisky on November 27, 1941, UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill openly admitted that Prussia bore the brunt of responsibility for aggressive German militarism, and that in the future Bavaria, Austria, Wurttemberg, and others, must be liberated from Prussian oppression. During his next meeting with the Soviet ambassador on December 5, 1941, Churchill elaborated that the main aim was to eradicate the German threat once and for all, requiring a complete disarmament of Germany for at least one generation and its division into several parts, primarily the secession of Prussia from the other German territories.
The first substantive discussion about Germany’s future was held with London during a working visit by Britain’s Foreign Secretary, Anthony Eden, to Moscow on December 15−20, 1941. The parties also talked about signing a secret protocol on the recognition of the Soviet Union’s 1941 borders, the division of Germany into several independent states, with East Prussia as one of them, and the annexation of part of Prussia, including Koenigsberg, to the Soviet Union as a guarantee of post-war reparations. Joseph Stalin stated his views on the “post-war reorganisation of European borders,” saying that weakening Germany was a vital condition, primarily through the separation of the Rhine region with its industrial sector from the rest of Prussia. He also said that Austria should be restored as an independent state.
The British ruling circles were uncertain whether the Red Army could withstand the German onslaught. They doubted the Soviet Union’s military capability even after the Battle of Moscow. This explains their open reluctance to share their plans and perspectives on the future, especially concerning the post-war settlement of Europe. Eden was not ready for a substantive exchange of views in Moscow. He only said that the UK government supported Austria’s independence in any event and was willing to discuss the independence of Bavaria and the Rhine region. At the same time, Anthony Eden admitted that Roosevelt and Churchill had held consultations on the post-war reconstruction of Europe even before Hitler’s attack on the Soviet Union.
The Anglo-Saxons refused to recognise the Soviet Union as an equal party to the post-war settlement until 1943. However, the Allies’ interest in the future of Germany after its defeat in the war grew with every change on the Soviet-German front.
The Soviet Union, the United States and Britain had different goals in the war. The anti-Hitler coalition was formed and grew stronger because they needed to rout a common enemy. But their views on the post-war settlement differed significantly.
The issue was raised at US President Roosevelt’s meeting with Anthony Eden in March 1943. Soviet Ambassador in Washington Maxim Litvinov, who talked with his UK counterpart after his meeting with the US president, concluded that London and Washington were “unanimous… on the disarmament of the Axis powers and the breakdown of Germany… They propose recreating Czechoslovakia within its old borders and establishing a separate Austrian state… Eden does not think that the issue of our western border would meet with serious difficulties in the United States, and that Poland would be satisfied with getting East Prussia.”
Ambassador Maisky, who met with Eden on April 7 and 12, 1943, was of the same opinion: “They see as the best solution… the breakdown of Germany into several states… at least three German states… Austria must be an independent state.”
The Soviet Union improved its military standing further after defeating the Nazi troops in the Battle of Kursk. This led to a growing awareness in London and Washington that ignoring Soviet interests when making decisions that affected all Allies could be dangerous.
On October 9, 1943, Maxim Litvinov, in his capacity as the USSR’s Deputy People’s Commissar for Foreign Affairs, presented a report titled Treating Germany and Other Enemy Countries in Europe. In it, he wrote that “there is a sense of solidarity among the three governments … on taking all the necessary measures to prevent any future German aggression.” Everyone agreed that “all territories acquired by Germany since Hitler’s arrival to power, both during the ongoing war, and in the pre-war period, must be viewed as not belonging to Germany.” Therefore, “both Austria and the Sudetenland, which Germany took from Czechoslovakia, were not to be part of Germany.” At the same time, Litvinov quoted official statements by the UK on “liberating Austria from Germany’s yoke, as well as restoring Czechoslovakia in its pre-Munich borders… Germany’s borders as per the Treaty of Versailles may also be revised, primarily Germany’s border with Poland.”
Maxim Litvinov noted that the British wanted “East Prussia, Silesia, and of course the Danzig Corridor to become part of Poland. According to Eden, Roosevelt and his team also favoured transferring East Prussia to Poland as compensation for tracing its border along the so-called Curzon Line… But no matter East Prussia’s destiny… we have every right to demand that the Memel Territory be reunited with Lithuania, and the same goes for East Prussia… by tracing the line as suggested by our General Staff.” The report went on to suggest “starting by taking care of partitioning present-day Prussia, which would retain its dominance over Germany even after losing East Prussia, Silesia and Schleswig”5. All the nuances raised during the subsequent talks with the Allies notwithstanding, the Soviet government largely adhered to this framework regarding the border issue in East Europe once the war was over.
On October 19−30, 1943, Moscow hosted a conference that brought together the Soviet, US and British foreign ministers. During this gathering, US Secretary of State Cordell Hull spoke out in favour of a decentralised political system for Germany and encouraging movements supporting this vision inside the country, including a movement “advocating reducing the Prussian influence on the Reich.” Anthony Eden set forth the British cabinet’s vision in a plan for partitioning Germany into separate states… to separate Prussia from the rest of Germany, adding that the use of force should not be excluded when fulfilling these goals. During the conference, the Americans noted that while they were inclined to accept the idea of splitting up Germany, they had yet to come to a final decision on this matter. As for the Soviet People’s Commissar for Foreign Affairs, Vyacheslav Molotov, he said that Moscow had yet to define its position on this topic and needed more time, as its leaders were too busy dealing with military matters at that time.
The participants in the conference approved the Declaration on Austria, saying that they wanted to re-establish a free and independent Austria, while declaring the annexation imposed upon Austria by Germany in 1938 as null and void. At the same time, the declaration acknowledged Austria’s responsibility for participating in the war on the side of Hitlerite Germany and that “in the final settlement, account will inevitably be taken of her own contribution to her liberation.”
The outcomes of the Moscow Conference largely shaped the talks between the Big Three leaders in Tehran on November 28 – December 1, 1943. Once again, the Americans and the British took centre stage on the issue of partitioning Germany. US President Franklin Roosevelt outlined his own plan, which proposed dividing Germany into five independent states. In addition to this, he suggested detaching several territories from Germany and placing them under the control of the United Nations, the four victorious powers or European trustees.
As for Winston Churchill, he suggested isolating Prussia from the rest of Germany and cutting off its southern states, i.e., Bavaria, Baden, Wurttemberg, and Palatinate (Pfalz) from Saarland to Saxony. He believed in creating a harsh environment for Prussia, while taking Germany’s southern states from it and incorporating them into the Confederation of the Danube.
It is worth noting that in July 1943, the British circulated a document among Allies regarding Austria’s future, all while nurturing plans to establish an East European confederation as a sanitary cordon and a counterweight to the Soviet Union. The document offered four most likely solutions for resolving the Austrian issue, which were as follows: 1) uniting Austria with Germany as part of the Reich or as a federation, 2) including Austria in a South German confederation, 3) re-establishing Austria as a free and independent state, and 4) including Austria in a confederation of Central and East European countries.
The Americans did not support Churchill’s idea of creating groupings of states or confederations in Europe. The Soviet authorities did not approve of it either. Moscow recognised that the main goal of these plans was to create anti-Soviet blocs. Consequently, Joseph Stalin spoke out against the establishment of such unsustainable entities and called for the independence of Austria and Hungary.
It should be noted that after the start of consultations on the post-war settlement in Europe, the future of East Prussia was discussed as part of the so-called Polish question. The Soviet government pointed out on numerous occasions that the Polish people’s aspirations for reunification as a strong and independent state deserved recognition and support. Moscow also believed that Poland’s borders should be determined with due regard for the security interests of Europe, and that Poland should be transformed from a source of conflicts and wars into a factor of stability and lasting peace.
During the Tehran Conference on December 1, 1943, Stalin explained that “the Ukrainian territories should be assigned to Ukraine, and the Byelorussian territories to Byelorussia.” Likewise, the Soviet Union considered that it would be correct for Poland to regain control of its ancestral territories in the west. UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill proposed that “the home of the Polish state and nation should be between the so-called Curzon Line and the line of the Oder, including for Poland East Prussia and Oppeln.”
In the context of the Polish western border settlement, Stalin pointed out that the Soviet Union had no ice-free ports in the Baltic Sea and proposed considering the transfer of the ice-free ports of Koenigsberg and Memel, along with the adjacent parts of East Prussia, to the Soviet Union. He added that the Soviet Union would accept Churchill’s proposals regarding Polish borders if Britain agreed to transfer these territories to the Soviet Union. During a breakfast on November 30, 1943, Churchill confirmed that Russia should have access to ice-free ports and that Britain had no objections to that. Therefore, the transfer of Koenigsberg to the Soviet Union was tentatively agreed.
In 1944, the Red Army won a number of major victories over Germany and the Axis powers. The westward movement of the frontline and the growing might of the Soviet Union showed that the Red Army could potentially defeat Nazi Germany without the Allies’ assistance. This led to a major change in their views on the future of Germany between the Tehran and Yalta conferences. The West began to act not only to defeat Germany but also to contain the Soviet Union.
According to a telegram sent by Soviet Ambassador Andrey Gromyko from Washington on October 6, 1944, the US Department of State was divided on the issue of post-war Germany. However, American diplomats were inclined to think that Germany should be preserved as the leading industrial power in Europe to hinder the growth of the Soviet Union’s influence.
When the Yalta Conference was held in Crimea on February 4−11, 1945, the Red Army was barely 60 kilometres from Berlin. The Anglo-Saxon circles started thinking about forming a bloc of West European states after the war, with Germany as one of its members. This rendered the Anglo-Saxon plans for Germany’s de-industrialisation and division irrelevant.
On February 5, 1945, Stalin openly asked the Allies in Yalta if they supported the disintegration of Germany following its defeat. He reminded them that the US and British governments had voiced such plans twice, in Tehran in 1943 and during the Soviet-British talks in Moscow in October 1944. The US and British leaders reaffirmed their principled stance on Germany’s disintegration. As a result, the Soviet Union supported the Allies’ idea of adding the following phrase to Article 12 of the declaration regarding the defeat of Germany: “In the exercise of the supreme authority with respect to Germany assumed by the Governments of the United States of America, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United Kingdom, …the… Allied Governments will take such steps, including the complete disarmament, demilitarisation and dismemberment of Germany, as they deem requisite for future peace and security.”
The delegations also settled the Polish issue by pointing out that not all of East Prussia should be turned over to Poland, and that the northern part of that province with the ports of Memel and Koenigsberg should be transferred to the Soviet Union. The Soviet and US delegates said that Poland should receive part of German territories as compensation, namely the part of East Prussia south of the Koenigsberg and Upper Silesia line to the Oder River. Ultimately, it was decided that Poland’s eastern border would run along the Curzon Line, and that it would receive substantial territories in the north and the west, with their size to be coordinated with the new Provisional Government of National Unity. The final demarcation of Poland’s western border was postponed until the peace conference.
The compromise decisions regarding the Polish issue and parts of East Prussia, which the Allies adopted in Yalta, amounted to a diplomatic victory for the Soviet Union, as they were objectively in the interests of the Polish people. Poland’s new borders were ideal in terms of security. Moreover, it exchanged economically backward agricultural regions in the east for industrialised regions and Baltic ports in the west.
It is important that we recognised the lack of sincerity in all these Anglo-Saxon declarations outlining abstract plans for partitioning Germany. In the run-up to the Yalta Conference, the intention to use the future German state in any shape or form as a post-war containment tool against the USSR crystallised in the West, while the Soviet government could see through these plans and acted accordingly.
The outcomes of the Yalta Conference included the decision to set up a new commission with the mission of defining Germany’s future. Within its framework, Great Britain tabled a proposal for the Allies to draft a joint plan of action. The Soviet delegates responded by sending a letter to the commission’s chair, Anthony Eden, saying that the USSR viewed the Yalta Conference’s resolution on planning Germany’s partition as “one of the eventualities for pressuring Germany and neutralising it in case other means prove to be insufficient,” rather than an imperative. In a wire message dated March 24, 1945, Vyacheslav Molotov wrote to the Soviet Ambassador in London, Fyodor Gusev, that “the British and the Americans were the first to put Germany’s partition on the agenda, but are now seeking to shift the responsibility for doing this onto the USSR in order to disparage our state in the eyes of international public opinion. We must submit the proposal as mentioned above in order to deprive them of this possibility.” A letter from the Soviet government was enough to remove Germany’s partition from the commission’s agenda.
The USSR also set forth its position on this matter in Joseph Stalin’s Victory Speech on May 9, 1945, when the Soviet leader said: “The Soviet Union is celebrating Victory, although it does not intend either to dismember or to destroy Germany.”
There is no mention of any possible partition of Germany in the Declaration Regarding the Defeat of Germany of June 5, 1945, as signed by the four allied commanders in chief in Berlin, while the arrangements resulting from the Potsdam Conference referred to Germany as a single economic entity.
In fact, held from July 17 to August 2, 1945, the Berlin (Potsdam) Conference became the last stage in the joint effort by the heads of the anti-Hitler coalition. It took intense and hard-fought negotiations for the Soviet delegation to make its case on Poland’s western borders. Having failed to establish a government in Poland as they deemed fit, the British and the Americans were not interested in making this country stronger or giving it more land. Nevertheless, the USSR prevailed. On August 1, 1945, the Potsdam Conference issued a protocol of its proceedings, followed on August 2, 1945, by a Report on the Tripartite Conference of Berlin. These documents contained a section titled City of Koenigsberg and the Adjacent Area, which read:
The Conference examined a proposal by the Soviet Government to the effect that pending the final determination of territorial questions at the peace settlement, the section of the western frontier of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics which is adjacent to the Baltic Sea should pass from a point on the eastern shore of the Bay of Danzig to the east, north of Braunsberg-Goldap, to the meeting point of the frontiers of Lithuania, the Polish Republic and East Prussia.
The Conference has agreed in principle to the proposal of the Soviet Government concerning the ultimate transfer to the Soviet Union of the City of Koenigsberg and the area adjacent to it as described above subject to expert examination of the actual frontier.
The President of the United States and the British Prime Minister have declared that they will support the proposal of the Conference at the forthcoming peace settlement.
These documents also contained the following wording: “The three Heads of Government agree that, pending the final determination of Poland’s western frontier, the former German territories east of a line running from the Baltic Sea immediately west of Swinamunde, and thence along the Oder River to the confluence of the western Neisse River and along the Western Neisse to the Czechoslovak frontier, including that portion of East Prussia not placed under the administration of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in accordance with the understanding reached at this conference and including the area of the former free city of Danzig, shall be under the administration of the Polish State and for such purposes should not be considered as part of the Soviet zone of occupation in Germany.”
The Potsdam Conference’s biggest achievements centred on its resolutions on the German issue. In fact, they recognised the German state within its new borders as a single economic and political entity, despite serious disagreements on matters dealing with the restoration of a centralised governance framework.
Germany was divided into four occupation zones immediately after the war ended. Under the Declaration Regarding the Defeat of Germany, the governments of the United Kingdom, the USSR, the United States and France were to assume supreme authority over Germany, each operating within its own occupation zone. Berlin was also divided into four sectors, with an Allied Kommandatura formed by the four powers to govern the city. Moreover, the United States, Britain and France initially recognised that the Soviet military administration in Germany would exercise supreme authority over the German capital as the centre of the Soviet occupation zone.
However, the creation of occupation zones in Germany did not entail its partition or dismemberment, even if it served as a precursor to such an outcome. In fact, the Allied Control Council failed to endure as a unified governance mechanism. Two centres of gravity emerged with the Western military administrations of the occupied zone on the one hand, and the Soviet zone, on the other. The allies failed to coordinate the political, legal, economic and social initiatives in their respective zones, which effectively resulted in the gradual emergence of two German state entities with opposing agendas. In other words, the former Allies abandoned their plans to establish a single German state in the foreseeable future.
The Western occupation authorities, which initially operated autonomously, essentially merged into a single administrative system. Amid the Cold War, which began to manifest itself in the first post-war years, they sought to preserve Germany’s defence capabilities. In violation of earlier agreements, Western countries did not dismantle German military industries or de-monopolise the market. Neither did they disband all army units; many units remained combat-ready.
Gradually, the occupation zones administered by the UK, US and France were merged into one territory, and parliamentary elections were held there on August 14, 1949, contrary to the initial agreements reached by the Allies. On September 20, 1949, the government of the Federal Republic of Germany was formed.
The emergence of the Federal Republic of Germany changed the situation dramatically. In response, on October 7, 1949, the German People’s Council, with the Soviet authorities’ approval, proclaimed the creation of the German Democratic Republic and assumed the duties of parliament. As a result, two German states were established in place of the defeated Nazi Germany.
Berlin, also divided into four sectors after the war, ended up split into two parts. The American, British and French sectors formed an independent political entity, West Berlin, where the direct rule of the Western occupation authorities was legally preserved. The Soviet sector became the capital of the GDR. This created a unique situation in Europe, where a country was divided into two states with opposing socio-political systems.
In response to two American initiatives – the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan – the USSR moved to strengthen its bonds with Eastern European states. International relations fully entered the Cold War phase. Instead of becoming a bridge between East and West, Germany turned into an arena for major confrontation between the two systems.
Austria followed a different scenario. On April 9, 1945, the USSR, guided by the above-mentioned October 30, 1943 Moscow declaration on Austria’s independence signed by the Allies, issued a statement asserting that the Soviet government was not seeking to possess any part of Austrian territory or change the social system in that country, and stating its intention to facilitate the liquidation of the Nazi occupation regime and the restoration of democratic orders and institutions in Austria.
The priorities of Soviet policy towards Austria were its separation from Germany and the creation of reliable barriers to a new Anschluss in any form. The July 4, 1945, agreement between the governments of the USSR, the United States and Great Britain and the Provisional Government of France on the Allied Control Machinery in Austria paved the way for the establishment of the Allied Commission on Austria, consisting of representatives of the four states. The commission was tasked with finally separating Austria from Germany, creating a central administrative system and ensuring the free election of an Austrian government.
The July 9, 1945, agreement on the occupation zones in Austria and the administration of the city of Vienna stipulated that the country, within its 1937 borders, was divided into four occupation zones, each assigned to the USSR, the United States, Great Britain and the Provisional Government of France. Vienna was collectively occupied by the armed forces of the four powers, and the city was to be administered by an inter-allied governing authority.
The Parties to the Soviet-Austrian talks held in Moscow on April 12−15, 1955, reached an agreement on the most important issues related to the draft State Treaty for the Re-establishment of an Independent and Democratic Austria. The Moscow Memorandum contained Austria’s commitment to refrain from joining any military alliances, to disallow the construction of military bases on its territory, and to conduct an independent foreign policy. The Austrian Party stressed that Vienna would make a relevant statement on its permanent neutrality in a form that imposed an international obligation upon the Republic.
In April and May, 1955, the Soviet Government took steps to coordinate the draft treaty with the Allies. As a result, the four powers agreed to delete an article concerning the numerical restrictions to be imposed on the Austrian armed forces. Previously challenged by the Western participants, certain fundamental provisions (on disbanding the Nazi organisations, on the UN property, etc.) were endorsed in the wording originally proposed by the Soviet Union. They also granted Vienna’s request to remove a paragraph containing a direct mention of Austria’s responsibility for participating in the war from the treaty preamble. The foreign ministers of the United States, Britain, and France did not object to Austria following a course of neutrality, as indicated in the Soviet-Austrian memorandum. The State Treaty for the Re-establishment of an Independent and Democratic Austria was signed on May 15, 1955, and came into force on July 27, 1955.
Under the Treaty and the Soviet-Austrian agreement of April 15, 1955, the USSR handed over to Austria, in August 1955, more than 400 Soviet-owned German businesses, industrial plants, oil fields, shipyards, and storage facilities, located in eastern Austria. The Soviet troop pullout was finalised by September 20, 1955. The United States, Britain, and France withdrew their armed forces as well, thereby putting an end to the country’s occupation.
Austria, for its part, passed a law on its permanent neutrality on October 26, 1955. On December 6, 1955, in response to Vienna’s request, the governments of the USSR, the United States, Britain, and France acknowledged their recognition of Austria’s permanent neutrality as defined by the law. This completed the process of re-establishing the Austrian state’s sovereignty and independence within its January 1, 1938 borders.
The post-war settlement in Europe, with the resolution of the German and Austrian issues as its important, if not crucial, part, was an example of the successful harmonisation of state interests based on mutual respect and goodwill. However, not all objectives were achieved.
On January 25, 2023, President of Russia Vladimir Putin addressed university students on the Russian Students Day, saying that “…the Soviet Union, and Russia as the legal successor of the Soviet Union, acted as the guarantor of the constitution of the Republic of Austria and the guarantor of the neutral status of the Republic of Austria.” He also reminded his audience that the USSR “legally formalised the end of the occupation” of the Federal Republic of Germany: “After all, after the Second World War, Germany was, as you know, divided into four occupation zones: American, British, French and Soviet. So, the Soviet Union legally ended the occupation, but the United States did not. Strictly speaking – technically, legally – there are American occupation troops in the Federal Republic of Germany. In fact, they are: there are a lot of them.
“Even German politicians say that Germany has not been a sovereign state in the full sense of the word since WWII. It is not me saying this; it is prominent and, more importantly, not pro-Russian but pro-German people saying this. They have been saying this openly. In other words, there are very deep roots and serious reasons for everything that is taking place now.”
The present is undoubtedly rooted in the past, and the events unfolding in the world today always have their causes and historical foundations. Today, we have reached a divide where another restructuring of the international order and its adaptation to the multipolar geopolitical realities is on the agenda. It is crucial, therefore, to draw the right lessons, while the post-war settlement of the German and Austrian issues provides a wealth of valuable factual material for this endeavour.
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1973716/
Article by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “On the Circumstances of the Division of Austria and Germany into Occupation Zones,” published in the Bulletin of the Security Council of the Russian Federation No. 3 (91), 2024
1855-02-10-2024
As the great Russian historian Vasily Klyuchevsky said, “History is not a teacher but an overseer. It does not teach anyone; it merely punishes those who haven’t learnt their lessons.” Therefore, it seems appropriate to review some chapters of our history ahead of the 80th anniversary of the Great Victory, particularly in the context of the current international and foreign policy realities.
The countries of the anti-Hitler coalition regularly discussed the post-war settlement of Europe almost from the beginning of the Great Patriotic War (1941−1945). During a meeting with Soviet Ambassador in London Ivan Maisky on November 27, 1941, UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill openly admitted that Prussia bore the brunt of responsibility for aggressive German militarism, and that in the future Bavaria, Austria, Wurttemberg, and others, must be liberated from Prussian oppression. During his next meeting with the Soviet ambassador on December 5, 1941, Churchill elaborated that the main aim was to eradicate the German threat once and for all, requiring a complete disarmament of Germany for at least one generation and its division into several parts, primarily the secession of Prussia from the other German territories.
The first substantive discussion about Germany’s future was held with London during a working visit by Britain’s Foreign Secretary, Anthony Eden, to Moscow on December 15−20, 1941. The parties also talked about signing a secret protocol on the recognition of the Soviet Union’s 1941 borders, the division of Germany into several independent states, with East Prussia as one of them, and the annexation of part of Prussia, including Koenigsberg, to the Soviet Union as a guarantee of post-war reparations. Joseph Stalin stated his views on the “post-war reorganisation of European borders,” saying that weakening Germany was a vital condition, primarily through the separation of the Rhine region with its industrial sector from the rest of Prussia. He also said that Austria should be restored as an independent state.
The British ruling circles were uncertain whether the Red Army could withstand the German onslaught. They doubted the Soviet Union’s military capability even after the Battle of Moscow. This explains their open reluctance to share their plans and perspectives on the future, especially concerning the post-war settlement of Europe. Eden was not ready for a substantive exchange of views in Moscow. He only said that the UK government supported Austria’s independence in any event and was willing to discuss the independence of Bavaria and the Rhine region. At the same time, Anthony Eden admitted that Roosevelt and Churchill had held consultations on the post-war reconstruction of Europe even before Hitler’s attack on the Soviet Union.
The Anglo-Saxons refused to recognise the Soviet Union as an equal party to the post-war settlement until 1943. However, the Allies’ interest in the future of Germany after its defeat in the war grew with every change on the Soviet-German front.
The Soviet Union, the United States and Britain had different goals in the war. The anti-Hitler coalition was formed and grew stronger because they needed to rout a common enemy. But their views on the post-war settlement differed significantly.
The issue was raised at US President Roosevelt’s meeting with Anthony Eden in March 1943. Soviet Ambassador in Washington Maxim Litvinov, who talked with his UK counterpart after his meeting with the US president, concluded that London and Washington were “unanimous… on the disarmament of the Axis powers and the breakdown of Germany… They propose recreating Czechoslovakia within its old borders and establishing a separate Austrian state… Eden does not think that the issue of our western border would meet with serious difficulties in the United States, and that Poland would be satisfied with getting East Prussia.”
Ambassador Maisky, who met with Eden on April 7 and 12, 1943, was of the same opinion: “They see as the best solution… the breakdown of Germany into several states… at least three German states… Austria must be an independent state.”
The Soviet Union improved its military standing further after defeating the Nazi troops in the Battle of Kursk. This led to a growing awareness in London and Washington that ignoring Soviet interests when making decisions that affected all Allies could be dangerous.
On October 9, 1943, Maxim Litvinov, in his capacity as the USSR’s Deputy People’s Commissar for Foreign Affairs, presented a report titled Treating Germany and Other Enemy Countries in Europe. In it, he wrote that “there is a sense of solidarity among the three governments … on taking all the necessary measures to prevent any future German aggression.” Everyone agreed that “all territories acquired by Germany since Hitler’s arrival to power, both during the ongoing war, and in the pre-war period, must be viewed as not belonging to Germany.” Therefore, “both Austria and the Sudetenland, which Germany took from Czechoslovakia, were not to be part of Germany.” At the same time, Litvinov quoted official statements by the UK on “liberating Austria from Germany’s yoke, as well as restoring Czechoslovakia in its pre-Munich borders… Germany’s borders as per the Treaty of Versailles may also be revised, primarily Germany’s border with Poland.”
Maxim Litvinov noted that the British wanted “East Prussia, Silesia, and of course the Danzig Corridor to become part of Poland. According to Eden, Roosevelt and his team also favoured transferring East Prussia to Poland as compensation for tracing its border along the so-called Curzon Line… But no matter East Prussia’s destiny… we have every right to demand that the Memel Territory be reunited with Lithuania, and the same goes for East Prussia… by tracing the line as suggested by our General Staff.” The report went on to suggest “starting by taking care of partitioning present-day Prussia, which would retain its dominance over Germany even after losing East Prussia, Silesia and Schleswig”5. All the nuances raised during the subsequent talks with the Allies notwithstanding, the Soviet government largely adhered to this framework regarding the border issue in East Europe once the war was over.
On October 19−30, 1943, Moscow hosted a conference that brought together the Soviet, US and British foreign ministers. During this gathering, US Secretary of State Cordell Hull spoke out in favour of a decentralised political system for Germany and encouraging movements supporting this vision inside the country, including a movement “advocating reducing the Prussian influence on the Reich.” Anthony Eden set forth the British cabinet’s vision in a plan for partitioning Germany into separate states… to separate Prussia from the rest of Germany, adding that the use of force should not be excluded when fulfilling these goals. During the conference, the Americans noted that while they were inclined to accept the idea of splitting up Germany, they had yet to come to a final decision on this matter. As for the Soviet People’s Commissar for Foreign Affairs, Vyacheslav Molotov, he said that Moscow had yet to define its position on this topic and needed more time, as its leaders were too busy dealing with military matters at that time.
The participants in the conference approved the Declaration on Austria, saying that they wanted to re-establish a free and independent Austria, while declaring the annexation imposed upon Austria by Germany in 1938 as null and void. At the same time, the declaration acknowledged Austria’s responsibility for participating in the war on the side of Hitlerite Germany and that “in the final settlement, account will inevitably be taken of her own contribution to her liberation.”
The outcomes of the Moscow Conference largely shaped the talks between the Big Three leaders in Tehran on November 28 – December 1, 1943. Once again, the Americans and the British took centre stage on the issue of partitioning Germany. US President Franklin Roosevelt outlined his own plan, which proposed dividing Germany into five independent states. In addition to this, he suggested detaching several territories from Germany and placing them under the control of the United Nations, the four victorious powers or European trustees.
As for Winston Churchill, he suggested isolating Prussia from the rest of Germany and cutting off its southern states, i.e., Bavaria, Baden, Wurttemberg, and Palatinate (Pfalz) from Saarland to Saxony. He believed in creating a harsh environment for Prussia, while taking Germany’s southern states from it and incorporating them into the Confederation of the Danube.
It is worth noting that in July 1943, the British circulated a document among Allies regarding Austria’s future, all while nurturing plans to establish an East European confederation as a sanitary cordon and a counterweight to the Soviet Union. The document offered four most likely solutions for resolving the Austrian issue, which were as follows: 1) uniting Austria with Germany as part of the Reich or as a federation, 2) including Austria in a South German confederation, 3) re-establishing Austria as a free and independent state, and 4) including Austria in a confederation of Central and East European countries.
The Americans did not support Churchill’s idea of creating groupings of states or confederations in Europe. The Soviet authorities did not approve of it either. Moscow recognised that the main goal of these plans was to create anti-Soviet blocs. Consequently, Joseph Stalin spoke out against the establishment of such unsustainable entities and called for the independence of Austria and Hungary.
It should be noted that after the start of consultations on the post-war settlement in Europe, the future of East Prussia was discussed as part of the so-called Polish question. The Soviet government pointed out on numerous occasions that the Polish people’s aspirations for reunification as a strong and independent state deserved recognition and support. Moscow also believed that Poland’s borders should be determined with due regard for the security interests of Europe, and that Poland should be transformed from a source of conflicts and wars into a factor of stability and lasting peace.
During the Tehran Conference on December 1, 1943, Stalin explained that “the Ukrainian territories should be assigned to Ukraine, and the Byelorussian territories to Byelorussia.” Likewise, the Soviet Union considered that it would be correct for Poland to regain control of its ancestral territories in the west. UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill proposed that “the home of the Polish state and nation should be between the so-called Curzon Line and the line of the Oder, including for Poland East Prussia and Oppeln.”
In the context of the Polish western border settlement, Stalin pointed out that the Soviet Union had no ice-free ports in the Baltic Sea and proposed considering the transfer of the ice-free ports of Koenigsberg and Memel, along with the adjacent parts of East Prussia, to the Soviet Union. He added that the Soviet Union would accept Churchill’s proposals regarding Polish borders if Britain agreed to transfer these territories to the Soviet Union. During a breakfast on November 30, 1943, Churchill confirmed that Russia should have access to ice-free ports and that Britain had no objections to that. Therefore, the transfer of Koenigsberg to the Soviet Union was tentatively agreed.
In 1944, the Red Army won a number of major victories over Germany and the Axis powers. The westward movement of the frontline and the growing might of the Soviet Union showed that the Red Army could potentially defeat Nazi Germany without the Allies’ assistance. This led to a major change in their views on the future of Germany between the Tehran and Yalta conferences. The West began to act not only to defeat Germany but also to contain the Soviet Union.
According to a telegram sent by Soviet Ambassador Andrey Gromyko from Washington on October 6, 1944, the US Department of State was divided on the issue of post-war Germany. However, American diplomats were inclined to think that Germany should be preserved as the leading industrial power in Europe to hinder the growth of the Soviet Union’s influence.
When the Yalta Conference was held in Crimea on February 4−11, 1945, the Red Army was barely 60 kilometres from Berlin. The Anglo-Saxon circles started thinking about forming a bloc of West European states after the war, with Germany as one of its members. This rendered the Anglo-Saxon plans for Germany’s de-industrialisation and division irrelevant.
On February 5, 1945, Stalin openly asked the Allies in Yalta if they supported the disintegration of Germany following its defeat. He reminded them that the US and British governments had voiced such plans twice, in Tehran in 1943 and during the Soviet-British talks in Moscow in October 1944. The US and British leaders reaffirmed their principled stance on Germany’s disintegration. As a result, the Soviet Union supported the Allies’ idea of adding the following phrase to Article 12 of the declaration regarding the defeat of Germany: “In the exercise of the supreme authority with respect to Germany assumed by the Governments of the United States of America, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United Kingdom, …the… Allied Governments will take such steps, including the complete disarmament, demilitarisation and dismemberment of Germany, as they deem requisite for future peace and security.”
The delegations also settled the Polish issue by pointing out that not all of East Prussia should be turned over to Poland, and that the northern part of that province with the ports of Memel and Koenigsberg should be transferred to the Soviet Union. The Soviet and US delegates said that Poland should receive part of German territories as compensation, namely the part of East Prussia south of the Koenigsberg and Upper Silesia line to the Oder River. Ultimately, it was decided that Poland’s eastern border would run along the Curzon Line, and that it would receive substantial territories in the north and the west, with their size to be coordinated with the new Provisional Government of National Unity. The final demarcation of Poland’s western border was postponed until the peace conference.
The compromise decisions regarding the Polish issue and parts of East Prussia, which the Allies adopted in Yalta, amounted to a diplomatic victory for the Soviet Union, as they were objectively in the interests of the Polish people. Poland’s new borders were ideal in terms of security. Moreover, it exchanged economically backward agricultural regions in the east for industrialised regions and Baltic ports in the west.
It is important that we recognised the lack of sincerity in all these Anglo-Saxon declarations outlining abstract plans for partitioning Germany. In the run-up to the Yalta Conference, the intention to use the future German state in any shape or form as a post-war containment tool against the USSR crystallised in the West, while the Soviet government could see through these plans and acted accordingly.
The outcomes of the Yalta Conference included the decision to set up a new commission with the mission of defining Germany’s future. Within its framework, Great Britain tabled a proposal for the Allies to draft a joint plan of action. The Soviet delegates responded by sending a letter to the commission’s chair, Anthony Eden, saying that the USSR viewed the Yalta Conference’s resolution on planning Germany’s partition as “one of the eventualities for pressuring Germany and neutralising it in case other means prove to be insufficient,” rather than an imperative. In a wire message dated March 24, 1945, Vyacheslav Molotov wrote to the Soviet Ambassador in London, Fyodor Gusev, that “the British and the Americans were the first to put Germany’s partition on the agenda, but are now seeking to shift the responsibility for doing this onto the USSR in order to disparage our state in the eyes of international public opinion. We must submit the proposal as mentioned above in order to deprive them of this possibility.” A letter from the Soviet government was enough to remove Germany’s partition from the commission’s agenda.
The USSR also set forth its position on this matter in Joseph Stalin’s Victory Speech on May 9, 1945, when the Soviet leader said: “The Soviet Union is celebrating Victory, although it does not intend either to dismember or to destroy Germany.”
There is no mention of any possible partition of Germany in the Declaration Regarding the Defeat of Germany of June 5, 1945, as signed by the four allied commanders in chief in Berlin, while the arrangements resulting from the Potsdam Conference referred to Germany as a single economic entity.
In fact, held from July 17 to August 2, 1945, the Berlin (Potsdam) Conference became the last stage in the joint effort by the heads of the anti-Hitler coalition. It took intense and hard-fought negotiations for the Soviet delegation to make its case on Poland’s western borders. Having failed to establish a government in Poland as they deemed fit, the British and the Americans were not interested in making this country stronger or giving it more land. Nevertheless, the USSR prevailed. On August 1, 1945, the Potsdam Conference issued a protocol of its proceedings, followed on August 2, 1945, by a Report on the Tripartite Conference of Berlin. These documents contained a section titled City of Koenigsberg and the Adjacent Area, which read:
The Conference examined a proposal by the Soviet Government to the effect that pending the final determination of territorial questions at the peace settlement, the section of the western frontier of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics which is adjacent to the Baltic Sea should pass from a point on the eastern shore of the Bay of Danzig to the east, north of Braunsberg-Goldap, to the meeting point of the frontiers of Lithuania, the Polish Republic and East Prussia.
The Conference has agreed in principle to the proposal of the Soviet Government concerning the ultimate transfer to the Soviet Union of the City of Koenigsberg and the area adjacent to it as described above subject to expert examination of the actual frontier.
The President of the United States and the British Prime Minister have declared that they will support the proposal of the Conference at the forthcoming peace settlement.
These documents also contained the following wording: “The three Heads of Government agree that, pending the final determination of Poland’s western frontier, the former German territories east of a line running from the Baltic Sea immediately west of Swinamunde, and thence along the Oder River to the confluence of the western Neisse River and along the Western Neisse to the Czechoslovak frontier, including that portion of East Prussia not placed under the administration of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in accordance with the understanding reached at this conference and including the area of the former free city of Danzig, shall be under the administration of the Polish State and for such purposes should not be considered as part of the Soviet zone of occupation in Germany.”
The Potsdam Conference’s biggest achievements centred on its resolutions on the German issue. In fact, they recognised the German state within its new borders as a single economic and political entity, despite serious disagreements on matters dealing with the restoration of a centralised governance framework.
Germany was divided into four occupation zones immediately after the war ended. Under the Declaration Regarding the Defeat of Germany, the governments of the United Kingdom, the USSR, the United States and France were to assume supreme authority over Germany, each operating within its own occupation zone. Berlin was also divided into four sectors, with an Allied Kommandatura formed by the four powers to govern the city. Moreover, the United States, Britain and France initially recognised that the Soviet military administration in Germany would exercise supreme authority over the German capital as the centre of the Soviet occupation zone.
However, the creation of occupation zones in Germany did not entail its partition or dismemberment, even if it served as a precursor to such an outcome. In fact, the Allied Control Council failed to endure as a unified governance mechanism. Two centres of gravity emerged with the Western military administrations of the occupied zone on the one hand, and the Soviet zone, on the other. The allies failed to coordinate the political, legal, economic and social initiatives in their respective zones, which effectively resulted in the gradual emergence of two German state entities with opposing agendas. In other words, the former Allies abandoned their plans to establish a single German state in the foreseeable future.
The Western occupation authorities, which initially operated autonomously, essentially merged into a single administrative system. Amid the Cold War, which began to manifest itself in the first post-war years, they sought to preserve Germany’s defence capabilities. In violation of earlier agreements, Western countries did not dismantle German military industries or de-monopolise the market. Neither did they disband all army units; many units remained combat-ready.
Gradually, the occupation zones administered by the UK, US and France were merged into one territory, and parliamentary elections were held there on August 14, 1949, contrary to the initial agreements reached by the Allies. On September 20, 1949, the government of the Federal Republic of Germany was formed.
The emergence of the Federal Republic of Germany changed the situation dramatically. In response, on October 7, 1949, the German People’s Council, with the Soviet authorities’ approval, proclaimed the creation of the German Democratic Republic and assumed the duties of parliament. As a result, two German states were established in place of the defeated Nazi Germany.
Berlin, also divided into four sectors after the war, ended up split into two parts. The American, British and French sectors formed an independent political entity, West Berlin, where the direct rule of the Western occupation authorities was legally preserved. The Soviet sector became the capital of the GDR. This created a unique situation in Europe, where a country was divided into two states with opposing socio-political systems.
In response to two American initiatives – the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan – the USSR moved to strengthen its bonds with Eastern European states. International relations fully entered the Cold War phase. Instead of becoming a bridge between East and West, Germany turned into an arena for major confrontation between the two systems.
Austria followed a different scenario. On April 9, 1945, the USSR, guided by the above-mentioned October 30, 1943 Moscow declaration on Austria’s independence signed by the Allies, issued a statement asserting that the Soviet government was not seeking to possess any part of Austrian territory or change the social system in that country, and stating its intention to facilitate the liquidation of the Nazi occupation regime and the restoration of democratic orders and institutions in Austria.
The priorities of Soviet policy towards Austria were its separation from Germany and the creation of reliable barriers to a new Anschluss in any form. The July 4, 1945, agreement between the governments of the USSR, the United States and Great Britain and the Provisional Government of France on the Allied Control Machinery in Austria paved the way for the establishment of the Allied Commission on Austria, consisting of representatives of the four states. The commission was tasked with finally separating Austria from Germany, creating a central administrative system and ensuring the free election of an Austrian government.
The July 9, 1945, agreement on the occupation zones in Austria and the administration of the city of Vienna stipulated that the country, within its 1937 borders, was divided into four occupation zones, each assigned to the USSR, the United States, Great Britain and the Provisional Government of France. Vienna was collectively occupied by the armed forces of the four powers, and the city was to be administered by an inter-allied governing authority.
The Parties to the Soviet-Austrian talks held in Moscow on April 12−15, 1955, reached an agreement on the most important issues related to the draft State Treaty for the Re-establishment of an Independent and Democratic Austria. The Moscow Memorandum contained Austria’s commitment to refrain from joining any military alliances, to disallow the construction of military bases on its territory, and to conduct an independent foreign policy. The Austrian Party stressed that Vienna would make a relevant statement on its permanent neutrality in a form that imposed an international obligation upon the Republic.
In April and May, 1955, the Soviet Government took steps to coordinate the draft treaty with the Allies. As a result, the four powers agreed to delete an article concerning the numerical restrictions to be imposed on the Austrian armed forces. Previously challenged by the Western participants, certain fundamental provisions (on disbanding the Nazi organisations, on the UN property, etc.) were endorsed in the wording originally proposed by the Soviet Union. They also granted Vienna’s request to remove a paragraph containing a direct mention of Austria’s responsibility for participating in the war from the treaty preamble. The foreign ministers of the United States, Britain, and France did not object to Austria following a course of neutrality, as indicated in the Soviet-Austrian memorandum. The State Treaty for the Re-establishment of an Independent and Democratic Austria was signed on May 15, 1955, and came into force on July 27, 1955.
Under the Treaty and the Soviet-Austrian agreement of April 15, 1955, the USSR handed over to Austria, in August 1955, more than 400 Soviet-owned German businesses, industrial plants, oil fields, shipyards, and storage facilities, located in eastern Austria. The Soviet troop pullout was finalised by September 20, 1955. The United States, Britain, and France withdrew their armed forces as well, thereby putting an end to the country’s occupation.
Austria, for its part, passed a law on its permanent neutrality on October 26, 1955. On December 6, 1955, in response to Vienna’s request, the governments of the USSR, the United States, Britain, and France acknowledged their recognition of Austria’s permanent neutrality as defined by the law. This completed the process of re-establishing the Austrian state’s sovereignty and independence within its January 1, 1938 borders.
The post-war settlement in Europe, with the resolution of the German and Austrian issues as its important, if not crucial, part, was an example of the successful harmonisation of state interests based on mutual respect and goodwill. However, not all objectives were achieved.
On January 25, 2023, President of Russia Vladimir Putin addressed university students on the Russian Students Day, saying that “…the Soviet Union, and Russia as the legal successor of the Soviet Union, acted as the guarantor of the constitution of the Republic of Austria and the guarantor of the neutral status of the Republic of Austria.” He also reminded his audience that the USSR “legally formalised the end of the occupation” of the Federal Republic of Germany: “After all, after the Second World War, Germany was, as you know, divided into four occupation zones: American, British, French and Soviet. So, the Soviet Union legally ended the occupation, but the United States did not. Strictly speaking – technically, legally – there are American occupation troops in the Federal Republic of Germany. In fact, they are: there are a lot of them.
“Even German politicians say that Germany has not been a sovereign state in the full sense of the word since WWII. It is not me saying this; it is prominent and, more importantly, not pro-Russian but pro-German people saying this. They have been saying this openly. In other words, there are very deep roots and serious reasons for everything that is taking place now.”
The present is undoubtedly rooted in the past, and the events unfolding in the world today always have their causes and historical foundations. Today, we have reached a divide where another restructuring of the international order and its adaptation to the multipolar geopolitical realities is on the agenda. It is crucial, therefore, to draw the right lessons, while the post-war settlement of the German and Austrian issues provides a wealth of valuable factual material for this endeavour.
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1973716/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
IN THE WAR ECONOMY RUSSIA HAS TAUGHT THE PIGS TO SING
by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with
If you want to understand who is winning the American war against Russia on the Ukrainian battlefield, and also in the world’s commodity trade markets, you can start by calculating the life expectancy of a NATO-trained Ukrainian soldier on the front line, or of a NATO staff officer in a command bunker he thought was safe. Then you can check the life expectancy of a Russian pig.
The losses of the former are Russia’s tactical gains; they aren’t yet victory in the war.
But it’s the latter, the Russian pig (lead image) who, upon turning into pork, is breaking through the enemy’s defences towards strategic victory of Russian economic power to capture a world market. This means defeat – unrecoverable loss of market share – for the hostile states led by the once powerful pork exporters, Germany, Spain, Denmark, Canada, and the US. As the most recent European Union (EU) pig and pork slaughter data show, the war is pushing up the energy and feed costs of pig farming, and drastically cutting European exports of pork to the Asian consumer market, the biggest in the world.
There, Russia’s strategic ally China has cancelled the closure of its market in effect for Russia since 2008, and simultaneously has begun pork trade restriction moves against Spain, Denmark and The Netherlands, the principal European exporters of pork to China. In trade war retaliation, China is also steadily reducing the volume and value of its pork imports from the US since 2021.
Behind the Ukraine front, the test of who is winning the war against Russia is also who puts their money and their meat where their mouth is. In Russia, meat consumption is rising per capita to a level never recorded before in Russian history. At the same time, the country has become the world’s fifth largest pork producer.
From self-sufficiency in pork production in 2018 to the export of market surplus, this industry achievement has been based on direct and indirect state support measures, including retaliation against EU imports which followed the start of the EU’s anti-Russian sanctions in 2014.
“Practically speaking,” says Yury Kovalev, “we no longer have imports, but not because this is closed, but because over the past fifteen years an entire industry has been created, production has grown every year, and we have almost completely abandoned import dependence.” Kovalev is general director of Russia’s National Union of Pig Breeders (NSS). Kovalev is also forecasting that Russian pork exports will soon capture about 10% of the Chinese import market – about 300,000 tonnes per annum – displacing the Europeans.
Here is the Russian market story from all sources, just before the opening of the China trade began in September 2023.
For the full 15-year, 45-story archive on Russian pork, click to read. The concentration of the pork industry into fewer large corporate hands, including the oligarch-sized Miratorg group of the Linnik brothers (14.3% market share) and the Rusagro combine of Vadim Moshkovich (5.9%), has been analyzed through this archive. According to the latest tabulation published this February, over the past year the Linniks have increased their production by 21% to 803,500 tonnes, and lifted their market share from 12.6% to 14.3%. The top-5 pork producers now have a combined market share of 38%; this has not changed compared with a year ago; by contrast, in 2011 the top-5 Russian producers accounted for 26% of the market.
NATIONAL UNION OF PIG BREEDERS – TOP-20 RUSSIAN PORK PRODUCERS AT END-2023
Published by the National Union of Pig Breeders (NSS), February 2024.
No industry source will say publicly that the financial subsidies, trade protection and other administrative resources applied to the pork industry by the Putin administration to end import dependency and secure the domestic food chain are also responsible for the accelerating concentration of ownership and profit.
In this newly published report on the Russian pork industry, Vzglyad, the semi-official platform for security analysis, explains the reasons for the exceptional success. Between the lines, however, the publication targets the Kremlin economic advisors, led by Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, for running a high-interest rate policy. Vzglyad did not ask its sources to estimate what the net loan rate to the pork producers is after they offset their cost, investment, tax and other government benefits.
The Russian text has been translated verbatim; illustrations have been added.
“OVER BY CHRISTMAS” — TIMETABLE JUST ANNOUNCED FOR THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT’S NOVICHOK TRIAL IN KANGAROO COURT
by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with
The timetable for public hearings has been announced by the British government and its judge, Lord Anthony Hughes, to repeat the official allegations of Novichok attacks by Russian agents against Sergei and Yulia Skripal on March 4, then Dawn Sturgess on June 30, 2018.
The first hearing will open on next Monday, October 14, in Salisbury, the Wiltshire county town where the Skripal attack first occurred. The hearings will then move to the International Dispute Resolution Centre in London. On November 25, a session has been scheduled for Hughes to hear police, intelligence agents, and government lawyers argue the agenda item, “Russian state responsibility”. That session will then be followed in early December by closing statements.
The six-year proceeding is due to close by Christmas. By then it will have violated every rule in British court practice on the admissibility of evidence. .
No testimony by the Skripals has been allowed by Hughes. Instead, he has decided that the police, MI5 and Secret Intelligence Service will publish their version of what the Skripals said during interviews they were obliged to give without legal representation in 2018.
Click to read the official announcement by Hughes’s staff.
Source: https://dsiweb-prod.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/
The agenda for each week of the Hughes proceeding can be followed on the Sturgess Inquiry website. The broadcast of the sessions will be delayed by 15 minutes to allow government censors to work. Transcripts of the hearings will be posted here.
https://johnhelmer.net/over-by-christma ... more-90433
by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with
If you want to understand who is winning the American war against Russia on the Ukrainian battlefield, and also in the world’s commodity trade markets, you can start by calculating the life expectancy of a NATO-trained Ukrainian soldier on the front line, or of a NATO staff officer in a command bunker he thought was safe. Then you can check the life expectancy of a Russian pig.
The losses of the former are Russia’s tactical gains; they aren’t yet victory in the war.
But it’s the latter, the Russian pig (lead image) who, upon turning into pork, is breaking through the enemy’s defences towards strategic victory of Russian economic power to capture a world market. This means defeat – unrecoverable loss of market share – for the hostile states led by the once powerful pork exporters, Germany, Spain, Denmark, Canada, and the US. As the most recent European Union (EU) pig and pork slaughter data show, the war is pushing up the energy and feed costs of pig farming, and drastically cutting European exports of pork to the Asian consumer market, the biggest in the world.
There, Russia’s strategic ally China has cancelled the closure of its market in effect for Russia since 2008, and simultaneously has begun pork trade restriction moves against Spain, Denmark and The Netherlands, the principal European exporters of pork to China. In trade war retaliation, China is also steadily reducing the volume and value of its pork imports from the US since 2021.
Behind the Ukraine front, the test of who is winning the war against Russia is also who puts their money and their meat where their mouth is. In Russia, meat consumption is rising per capita to a level never recorded before in Russian history. At the same time, the country has become the world’s fifth largest pork producer.
From self-sufficiency in pork production in 2018 to the export of market surplus, this industry achievement has been based on direct and indirect state support measures, including retaliation against EU imports which followed the start of the EU’s anti-Russian sanctions in 2014.
“Practically speaking,” says Yury Kovalev, “we no longer have imports, but not because this is closed, but because over the past fifteen years an entire industry has been created, production has grown every year, and we have almost completely abandoned import dependence.” Kovalev is general director of Russia’s National Union of Pig Breeders (NSS). Kovalev is also forecasting that Russian pork exports will soon capture about 10% of the Chinese import market – about 300,000 tonnes per annum – displacing the Europeans.
Here is the Russian market story from all sources, just before the opening of the China trade began in September 2023.
For the full 15-year, 45-story archive on Russian pork, click to read. The concentration of the pork industry into fewer large corporate hands, including the oligarch-sized Miratorg group of the Linnik brothers (14.3% market share) and the Rusagro combine of Vadim Moshkovich (5.9%), has been analyzed through this archive. According to the latest tabulation published this February, over the past year the Linniks have increased their production by 21% to 803,500 tonnes, and lifted their market share from 12.6% to 14.3%. The top-5 pork producers now have a combined market share of 38%; this has not changed compared with a year ago; by contrast, in 2011 the top-5 Russian producers accounted for 26% of the market.
NATIONAL UNION OF PIG BREEDERS – TOP-20 RUSSIAN PORK PRODUCERS AT END-2023
Published by the National Union of Pig Breeders (NSS), February 2024.
No industry source will say publicly that the financial subsidies, trade protection and other administrative resources applied to the pork industry by the Putin administration to end import dependency and secure the domestic food chain are also responsible for the accelerating concentration of ownership and profit.
In this newly published report on the Russian pork industry, Vzglyad, the semi-official platform for security analysis, explains the reasons for the exceptional success. Between the lines, however, the publication targets the Kremlin economic advisors, led by Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, for running a high-interest rate policy. Vzglyad did not ask its sources to estimate what the net loan rate to the pork producers is after they offset their cost, investment, tax and other government benefits.
The Russian text has been translated verbatim; illustrations have been added.
https://johnhelmer.net/in-the-war-econo ... more-90416October 8, 2024
Russia has made a revolution in animal husbandry
How has Russia managed to achieve outstanding success in animal
husbandry in twenty years
By Olga Samofalova
Russia has taken the fourth place among the world’s largest meat producers. Experts call it the livestock miracle of Russia. After all, Russia has come a long way from an overwhelming dependence on American meat to reach complete self-sufficiency in poultry meat plus pork. How has Russia raised animal husbandry from its knees in 20 years, who helped the country in this, and why are there not comparably impressive successes in beef so far?
Russia has managed to achieve the fourth place among the world’s largest meat producers. This was recently stated by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin at a meeting with Chairman of the Board of the Russian Agricultural Bank Boris Listov.
According to the National Meat Association, imports of meat and meat products from 2003 to 2023 decreased from 2.67 million tonnes to 0.64 million tonnes.
Particularly impressive results in import substitution have been achieved for poultry and pork meat. Meat imports in the early 2000s reached 1.2 million tonnes, but in 2023 only 0.23 million tonnes were imported.
“Imports of pork and pork offal, including lard, over the years has reached from 600,000 tonnes to 1.250 million tonnes at its peak in 2010. This year, pork imports will be only 3,000 tonnes, and exports will be about 300,000 tonnes. Beef imports have also decreased significantly, though not because of our successes, but because of changes in the structure of domestic consumption: other types of meat have become much cheaper than beef, and people have begun to eat less beef. Imports in 2003 reached 700,000 tonnes, and in 2023 decreased to 231,000 tonnes, and this year we will supply about 40,000 tonnes of beef for export to other countries,” says Sergei Yushin, Head of the Executive Committee of the National Meat Association.
How did Russia manage to achieve such incredible success in animal husbandry for poultry and pork?
Yushin, chief executive of the National Meat Association, recalls that from the 1990s into the early 2000s, the situation was difficult: 70% of consumption was provided by imported broiler meat – the famous ‘Bush legs’. There was an excess of legs in the USA, as they prefer other parts of the chicken there.
Mikhail Gorbachev and George Bush at the signing of the June 1, 1990, agreement on trade which started the flow of American chicken legs into the Russian market. In 2013 these US chicken exports to Russia earned $303 million. In retaliation for the Obama Administration’s sanctions against Russia which began in March 2014, Vladimir Putin issued a retaliatory import ban in August 2014 which stopped Bush legs in the Russian market.
“The first investments went specifically into broiler production, because it is the most affordable and acceptable meat for Russians; there are no religious restrictions on its use; a low payback period due to the rapid production of a piece of meat from chicken, unlike pig farming where the terms of investment return are several times longer, not to mention beef cattle where capital costs are also much higher,” says Yushin.
Interestingly, the first major investors in Russian poultry farming were American funds, which began to actively come to Russia after 1998.
An important milestone in the development of animal husbandry was the arrival of Alexei Gordeyev to the Ministry of Agriculture in the early 2000s. “Gordeyev drew attention to the fact that import dependence is dangerous, and if a man-made disaster occurs, or animal disease, then there will be nothing to eat. Secondly, it was a shame that Russia, having huge territories for the production of animal feed, oilseeds, etc., is so heavily dependent on imported meat,” says Yushin.
The main problem, he said, was the low and often negative profitability of production, so Gordeyev set about the task of ensuring profitability. Accordingly, in 2005, customs and tariff regulation measures were introduced – quotas were introduced for meat imports, and high duties were imposed on import volumes exceeding the quota. This has led to an increase in meat prices and then to the incomes of Russian enterprises. Europe used the same measures to raise its livestock production after the Second World War, the source recalls.
Since about 2005, thanks to these import duties, a second industry has appeared that has become interesting to investors – pig farming.
“Many foreign companies, primarily German, Danish and French, also took part in the formation of modern pig farming in Russia. They not only built their own pig farms, but also provided expertise, technological equipment, breeding programs, genetic material, and so on,” Yushin says.
The second important stage was the implementation in 2006-2007 of the National Agro–industrial Complex Development Project, where for the first time the state provided preferential loans for livestock farming. Government support and cheap money have done their job – banks have become more willing to lend to companies to build farms.
The third stage was the adoption in 2008 of the state program for the development of agriculture and regulation of the market of agricultural products, raw materials and food, which was in effect for four years until 2012. “This program provided for a number of measures to support agricultural producers, including animal husbandry. These are the construction of new and modernization of old facilities, zero rates for the supply of breeding material from abroad. Then substantial funding was allocated,” the source says.
In 2012, Russia joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), and measures were provided to protect our market for livestock farmers. At the same time, the state support program was extended until 2020.
“All these years, enterprises have been built in Russia. We worked closely with leading foreign companies that supplied us with the best equipment, the best technologies, the best breeding material, and advised on the production of feed for farm animals. Genetic companies, world market leaders, opened their representative offices in Russia and trained our specialists. They have done a lot of work on the development of breeding in Russia. There was a breakdown of stereotypes that the work of a collective farmer is dirty and for the uneducated. Very educated, erudite and active people have joined the industry. Without this, nothing would have happened either,” Yushin believes.
Another factor which helped the Russian livestock miracle happen was the growth of household incomes in the 2000s when meat consumption began to grow in step with the growth of the economy.
Over twenty years, meat consumption in Russia has increased from 52 kg per capita in 2003 to 80 kg per capita in 2023; this includes poultry from 18 kg to 36 kg and pork from 17 kg to 32 kg, while beef consumption has decreased from 17 kg to 13 kg.
TRAJECTORY OF RUSSIAN MEAT CONSUMPTION, KILOGRAMS PER CAPITA
Source:https://www.researchgate.net/
“Despite the large volumes of imports, we had to produce more and more and the demand of the population supported good prices, which allowed companies to take out new loans and build, build, build. We have built a huge number of enterprises, created more than a hundred thousand new jobs. The development of animal husbandry has prompted the accelerated development of crop production, the construction of the most advanced feed mills, veterinary science, vaccine production, etc.,” says Yushin.
It is clear that at the stage of the formation of animal husbandry in Russia, the cost of meat was artificially inflated by the government’s import restrictions.
“I don’t hide the fact that at the initial stage in the second half of the 2000s and in the first half of the 2010-2020 decade, Russians overpaid for meat compared to the world market. But the goal was to raise profitability and increase local production. So that the moment will come when the competition in the market will be so fierce that meat will become one of the cheapest in the world for us.”
US, AUSTRALIAN BEEF EXPORT PRICE IN RUSSIAN ROUBLES PER KILOGRAM, 2013-2024
Source: https://www.indexmundi.com/
DOMESTIC BEEF PRICE IN ROUBLES PER KILOGRAM, 2021-22
Source: https://www.statista.com/
“And indeed, today commercial pork is more expensive in Brazil, in Canada and the US, where traditionally there were cheap pigs – pork is more expensive there than in our country. In terms of poultry meat, we are one of the lowest in price,” says Yushin.
Over the past decade, active work has been underway to open export markets. “We are displacing [other country] imports in the competitive struggle, but our market is also not so flexible — people cannot go on eating infinitely more meat. Our meat consumption level has already increased to 83 kg per person, and this is the level of rich countries. Therefore, our potential is to increase exports. Russia already supplies meat to more than 60 countries on a regular basis,” the expert says.
Exports of meat and meat products have grown enormously in twenty years – by a magnitude of 22 times: from 36,000 tonnes in 2003 (mainly supplied to neighbouring CIS countries) to 800,000 tonnes in 2023. Foreign countries bought 343,000 tonnes of poultry meat, 223,000 tonnes of pork, and 36,000 tonnes of beef.
An important step was the understanding of the country’s leadership that top officials of the state should develop exports, as did the presidents of the United States, Brazil, the Prime Minister of France, etc., the expert notes. The departments of government have also joined the effort in parallel, and the Ministry of Agriculture has created a strong agricultural attaché apparatus abroad. “We see the result: almost 45 billion roubles worth exports of agricultural products. Who would have believed this ten years ago,” Yushin notes.
Another thing, the expert does not hide, is that the current situation with expensive money due to the high key loan rate of the Central Bank greatly complicates the situation. “To be realistic, the industry may face a period of stagnation in investment and a halt in growth. And then we will lose the fight for world markets to other countries where loans are still cheap. No one will take out loans at 22% to 23%. The cost of construction has almost doubled in price over the past five years. The labour force has not only risen in price, but we also have a shortage of workers,” the source expresses concern.
Another potential for the development of animal husbandry in Russia lies in cattle meat. “Russia has not achieved great success in beef, except that it fully meets the needs of the Russian market in expensive marbled beef, which was previously imported from America and Australia. Consumption of this expensive meat has increased ten times in 10 years. In addition, we also export it. However, there were no large investments in beef, with the exception of a few projects. There are very long payback periods, the infrastructure of cattle raising is not developed, and there is low or even negative profitability. So we see a continuing decline in the number of cattle. We have enough beef, plus there are imports, but beef is where Russia could take the next step, albeit it’s a difficult one. But this requires no less money than other projects. We are talking about a trillion rubles and a period of 10-20 years,”” Yushin concludes. Beef in Russia is also one of the cheapest in the world, and this is one of its tragedies, since the low price scares off investors and slows down the development of the industry.
“OVER BY CHRISTMAS” — TIMETABLE JUST ANNOUNCED FOR THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT’S NOVICHOK TRIAL IN KANGAROO COURT
by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with
The timetable for public hearings has been announced by the British government and its judge, Lord Anthony Hughes, to repeat the official allegations of Novichok attacks by Russian agents against Sergei and Yulia Skripal on March 4, then Dawn Sturgess on June 30, 2018.
The first hearing will open on next Monday, October 14, in Salisbury, the Wiltshire county town where the Skripal attack first occurred. The hearings will then move to the International Dispute Resolution Centre in London. On November 25, a session has been scheduled for Hughes to hear police, intelligence agents, and government lawyers argue the agenda item, “Russian state responsibility”. That session will then be followed in early December by closing statements.
The six-year proceeding is due to close by Christmas. By then it will have violated every rule in British court practice on the admissibility of evidence. .
No testimony by the Skripals has been allowed by Hughes. Instead, he has decided that the police, MI5 and Secret Intelligence Service will publish their version of what the Skripals said during interviews they were obliged to give without legal representation in 2018.
Click to read the official announcement by Hughes’s staff.
Source: https://dsiweb-prod.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/
The agenda for each week of the Hughes proceeding can be followed on the Sturgess Inquiry website. The broadcast of the sessions will be delayed by 15 minutes to allow government censors to work. Transcripts of the hearings will be posted here.
https://johnhelmer.net/over-by-christma ... more-90433
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
Here’s What Some Of Russia’s Brightest Minds Think About The World Majority & Its Interests
Andrew Korybko
Oct 12, 2024
The World Majority envisages gradual and responsible reforms that elevate their roles in global governance with a view towards making International Relations more equitable.
The Valdai Club, which is one of Russia’s most prestigious think tanks and its top elite networking platform, published a detailed report by some of the brightest minds in the country on “The World Majority and Its Interests”. Its 31 pages deserve to be read in full, but for those with limited time, the present piece will summarize the most important insight shared therein. It’ll be seen that it’s a collection of pretty common observations whose importance rests in being confirmed by such top-level experts.
The report begins by searching for a definition of the “World Majority”, though with all respect to the highly esteemed authors’ efforts, it appears indistinguishable from the Global South. Both refer to the global majority that refused to submit to Western pressure to sanction Russia and/or arm Ukraine. They stood firm not due to pro-Russian reasons, but in defense of their hard-earned sovereignty. Accordingly, they’re not expected to always follow Russia’s policies, though Moscow shouldn’t take offense at this.
Their approach to the evolving international order will likely follow India’s, which pioneered the policy of multi-alignment that’s seen the world’s most populous country participate in the Quad, BRICS, and the SCO. The prioritization of national interests as each country’s leadership sincerely understands them to be will therefore characterize the World Majority’s foreign policy. They probably won’t revive the Non-Aligned Movement, however, since current divisions are far more complex than during the Old Cold War.
Instead, they’ll balance or multi-align between competing pairs of rivals in pursuit of maximum benefit from both, being very careful not to take anyone’s side except in extraordinary circumstances since this would risk weakening their strategic autonomy. This approach enables countries like India to serve as bridges between the West and its top rivals like Russia. Vietnam, Turkiye, and the Gulf States are also playing a similar role according to the report’s authors.
They also importantly observed that “the World Majority countries are not ready to propose or seriously discuss an abstract ‘new international order.’ They seek greater fairness regarding their interests, but are not willing to embark on a revolutionary path in order to achieve it.” This contradicts the wishful thinking expectations of many in the Alt-Media Community (AMC) who’ve been misled by the ideological zeal of their top influencers into imagining that the World Majority is as “revolutionary” as they are.
The World Majority envisages gradual and responsible reforms that elevate their roles in global governance with a view towards making International Relations more equitable. With few exceptions, they all participate in the global market economy and are therefore very fearful of sudden shocks to it, thus explaining why they so strongly opposed the West’s pressure to cut off their agricultural and energy trade with Russia. Had they complied, then their economies could have crashed.
The report then segued into some discussion about specific country examples such as India, the Gulf States, African countries, Southeast Asian countries, and Latin American and Caribbean countries. Readers can review each part if they’re interested but nothing too unique was shared in any of them. They all adhere to the policymaking model hitherto described, albeit with some national specificities such as varying vulnerability to Western pressure, especially in the financial and developmental realms.
For these reasons, the authors advise Russia not to overreact whenever partners implement policies that don’t perfectly align with its own, let alone when they try to multi-align between Russia and the West. Supplementary advice is that “attempts to fit them into one’s own speculative geopolitical schemes would be a mistake”, which is also relevant for the AMC. Russia should also learn more about every World Majority country since they hint near the end that it might be lacking in expertise towards some.
All in all, the most important purpose of the report is that it lent authority to the observations that some have already noticed about the World Majority/Global South and applied towards their own work, such as in this analysis here from spring 2023. There’s not much else novel about it other than being the first comprehensive collection of such observations to be published in Russia by one of its top think tanks. Even so, average readers will still benefit from at least reviewing it, which they’re encouraged to do.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/heres-wh ... -brightest
******
"In case of a controversial outcome..."
October 13, 14:06
And this is how the West is presenting the upcoming elections in Georgia, not particularly hiding the fact that there will be protests and that the elections will be declared “unfair,” and also announcing the West’s participation in this.
Few expect a free and fair contest in a country where the ruling party is openly pro-Russian and unashamed of its anti-democratic tendencies.
Hello again! In Tbilisi, where I visited this month, the political atmosphere is ominously tense and magnetic. Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 26 are set to be the most important for the mountainous South Caucasus country since it emerged from the ashes of the Soviet Union in 1991.
At first glance, it might seem that Georgia faces two possible futures: a slide into authoritarianism and union with Russia if the ruling Georgian Dream party remains in power, or democracy and a pro-European path if a victorious opposition takes power. But this black-and-white picture is an oversimplification; the truth is far more complex.
Since the start of the Kremlin's special operation in Ukraine in February 2022, Georgia has become a battlefield on two fronts: between the Georgian Dream and its opponents on the one hand, and between their Russian and Western allies and patrons on the other. The degree of political division in Tbilisi is so great that during the election campaign there was not a single case when representatives of the government and the opposition argued with each other on television, radio or other media. There is not a shadow of mutual trust. The opposition has painful memories of the fate of the first independent Georgian state of modern times. It barely existed from 1918 to 1921, after which it was absorbed by the Soviet Union.
Now the opposition fears that if the Georgian Dream retains power, the country will fall completely under Russian influence and lose its precious and fragile democracy and civil liberties.
Such an outcome would be a painful blow to the interests and authority of the West. The United States and its European allies support Georgia's independence. The EU has even granted it candidate status for membership, though the process has stalled because of the Georgian Dream government’s backsliding on democracy and growing pro-Russian sympathies.
Moscow, for its part, continues to regard Georgia as part of its rightful sphere of influence on the post-Soviet frontier that separates Russia from the West. “The Russians never left Georgia, not even in their thoughts,” said one Western observer in Tbilisi. In a brief war in 2008, Russia effectively took control of two Georgian regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where it maintains some 10,000 troops and security personnel. South Ossetia is just an hour’s drive from Tbilisi. Right now, there is no sign of imminent Russian military intervention in Georgia. But it is inconceivable that the Kremlin would placidly accept the election results if a pro-Western government came to power in Tbilisi.
Writing for the Washington-based Center for a New American Security, Nicholas Locker and Andrea Kendall-Taylor wrote:
"Georgia now has perhaps the most pro-Russian government since independence in 1991, and in some cases the Georgian Dream is following Putin's playbook in its attempts to undermine democracy. Moscow's main goal is to ensure the stability of these pro-Russian forces, in particular the party's founder and de facto leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili."
But to frame the election as a straightforward contest between despotism and freedom, or between Russia and the West, is to miss key features of Georgia's political trajectory over the past three decades.
Writing for the Stockholm Centre for East European Studies, Markus Greisch hit the nail on the head. He identified three long-term problems that have dogged Georgia since independence:
The first is deep political and societal divisions. The second is that all Georgian governments sooner or later veer into authoritarianism.
The third is that the people paradoxically support both the EU and the Georgian Dream at the same time. This is frustrating Western leaders and raising doubts about how well Georgians understand what EU membership would entail.
Since 1991, every government that began as defenders of national independence and champions of political freedom has, sooner or later, slid into deeply flawed forms of autocracy, tainted by corruption and abuses of the rule of law. That was true of Zviad Gamsakhurdia, Georgia’s first post-communist president; Eduard Shevardnadze, once revered in the West as Mikhail Gorbachev’s visionary Soviet foreign minister; Mikheil Saakashvili, the reformer turned dictator; and now Ivanishvili.
The legacy of the Saakashvili era is a serious problem for Georgia’s four main opposition parties, explained political scientist Bidzina Lebanidze.
"Both the Georgian Dream and the opposition are disconnected from the majority of the population, and people feel alienated from the political process," Lebanidze writes.
"During their rule, Saakashvili and his party have alienated a critical mass of the electorate, who flatly refuse to vote for them at any time," he added.
Beka Chedia makes similar arguments for the Center for European Policy Analysis:
"In addition to fragmentation, the opposition also has an identity and self-awareness problem. Voters find it difficult to understand which of the small parties is part of which alliance and what it promises to voters."
In Tbilisi, one non-partisan analyst told me: "It is not enough to view the upcoming elections as a confrontation between pro-Western and pro-Russian forces. In the periphery, far from the capital, voters also see this as a kind of battle between Saakashvili and Ivanishvili." "In other words,“The image of Georgian politics as an arena for autocrats remains,” he emphasized.
Opinion polls on Georgia’s elections should be treated with caution. However, according to one independent expert, a private poll by Georgian Dream showed that it would struggle to get more than 40% of the vote.
However, under the proportional representation system, Georgian Dream could get just over half the seats in parliament even with 37-38% of the vote.
It would be a great help for the ruling party if one or more opposition parties failed to clear the 5% threshold.
Given Georgian Dream’s influence over the country’s election commissions, control of the judiciary, vote-buying and intimidation of opposition activists, it is not hard to imagine the lengths to which the party would go to ensure its victory.
Shota Gvineria, a former Georgian ambassador and national security expert, said: “The regime has systematically used state resources to influence voters, offering people benefits such as pardons, early release from prison and forgiveness of fines in exchange for support.”
The filling of the Central Election Commission and its regional offices with “insiders”, voter list manipulation and ballot falsification have seriously undermined the integrity of democratic processes and elections in Georgia.
The list of possible election outcomes covers a spectrum from good to terrible.
The least likely is the Polish scenario. A year ago, the illiberal conservative and nationalist government in Warsaw lost the elections to the opposition led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Despite some difficulties, Tusk and his allies were able to take office peacefully.
In Georgia, such an outcome seems unlikely to me. The ruling party does not intend to give up its positions, it has concentrated almost all the levers of state power in its hands and has all the means to falsify it at its disposal.
At the opposite end of the spectrum is the Belarusian scenario. In 2020, mass protests erupted after the Minsk dictator Alexander Lukashenko declared victory in a blatantly fraudulent presidential election.
Lukashenko's regime successfully dealt with the demonstrators, and today Belarus is as unfree as Putin's Russia.
The third option is the Serbian scenario. President Aleksandar Vucic and his ruling party regularly win elections in Serbia. They cannot be called completely free and fair, but the West always limits itself to scolding Vucic, because it sees sense in maintaining working relations with Serbia.
If Georgian Dream wins the election dishonestly, or loses but refuses to concede defeat, street protests against the government are possible. The history of post-communist Georgia offers plenty of clues about what might happen.
In 2003, public outrage over corruption and rigged elections sparked demonstrations that toppled then-President Shevardnadze.
By stepping down, Shevardnadze ensured that the "Rose Revolution," as it later became known, remained largely peaceful. Could the same thing happen after October 26? I doubt it. Ivanishvili is very different in temperament and motivation from Shevardnadze. He is a reclusive billionaire who made his fortune in Russia, and the Kremlin openly supports him.
Ideally, in the event of a disputed election outcome, the US and European governments would intervene to mediate, as they did during the Ukrainian Maidan revolution in 2014.
However, the new Ukrainian government and its Western friends have paid a high price for this change of power - Russia annexed Crimea, fomented a separatist rebellion in the Donbas, and in 2022 even sent in troops.
The fate of Georgia is being decided.
https://inosmi.ru/20241012/gruziya-270375101.html - zinc
"The fight for democracy is in full swing. Let's make Ukraine out of Georgia!"
The task is simple - to declare the elections illegitimate, present their results as "disputed" and provide conditions for US and EU intervention.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9436924.html
Google Translator
******
The Northern Aral Sea as a target of Western water strategy
October 12, 2024
Rybar
Recently, it became known about the plans of the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation to increase the volume of accumulated water in the lake. Minister Nurzhan Nurzhigitov spoke about this during a meeting with residents of the Kyzylorda region.
According to him, this will be the beginning of the second stage of the project to preserve and develop the Northern Aral Sea, which will be implemented jointly with the World Bank .
The first stage, which resulted in the construction of the Kokaral Dam , has already been completed.
A third stage is also planned. The Ministry of Water Resources describes it as an update of the information base and water resources management systems.
For control over water resources, the Northern Aral Sea is one of the key points, as the largest reservoir in the western part of the region.
Previously, attempts have been made to “ research” the sources of Central Asian rivers and use the Aral problem to infiltrate Western NGOs into the region.
In the near future, we should expect proposals to install Western water monitoring systems for the Northern Aral Sea to prevent the loss of a valuable resource.
https://rybar.ru/severnyj-aral-kak-czel ... strategii/
Google Translator
Andrew Korybko
Oct 12, 2024
The World Majority envisages gradual and responsible reforms that elevate their roles in global governance with a view towards making International Relations more equitable.
The Valdai Club, which is one of Russia’s most prestigious think tanks and its top elite networking platform, published a detailed report by some of the brightest minds in the country on “The World Majority and Its Interests”. Its 31 pages deserve to be read in full, but for those with limited time, the present piece will summarize the most important insight shared therein. It’ll be seen that it’s a collection of pretty common observations whose importance rests in being confirmed by such top-level experts.
The report begins by searching for a definition of the “World Majority”, though with all respect to the highly esteemed authors’ efforts, it appears indistinguishable from the Global South. Both refer to the global majority that refused to submit to Western pressure to sanction Russia and/or arm Ukraine. They stood firm not due to pro-Russian reasons, but in defense of their hard-earned sovereignty. Accordingly, they’re not expected to always follow Russia’s policies, though Moscow shouldn’t take offense at this.
Their approach to the evolving international order will likely follow India’s, which pioneered the policy of multi-alignment that’s seen the world’s most populous country participate in the Quad, BRICS, and the SCO. The prioritization of national interests as each country’s leadership sincerely understands them to be will therefore characterize the World Majority’s foreign policy. They probably won’t revive the Non-Aligned Movement, however, since current divisions are far more complex than during the Old Cold War.
Instead, they’ll balance or multi-align between competing pairs of rivals in pursuit of maximum benefit from both, being very careful not to take anyone’s side except in extraordinary circumstances since this would risk weakening their strategic autonomy. This approach enables countries like India to serve as bridges between the West and its top rivals like Russia. Vietnam, Turkiye, and the Gulf States are also playing a similar role according to the report’s authors.
They also importantly observed that “the World Majority countries are not ready to propose or seriously discuss an abstract ‘new international order.’ They seek greater fairness regarding their interests, but are not willing to embark on a revolutionary path in order to achieve it.” This contradicts the wishful thinking expectations of many in the Alt-Media Community (AMC) who’ve been misled by the ideological zeal of their top influencers into imagining that the World Majority is as “revolutionary” as they are.
The World Majority envisages gradual and responsible reforms that elevate their roles in global governance with a view towards making International Relations more equitable. With few exceptions, they all participate in the global market economy and are therefore very fearful of sudden shocks to it, thus explaining why they so strongly opposed the West’s pressure to cut off their agricultural and energy trade with Russia. Had they complied, then their economies could have crashed.
The report then segued into some discussion about specific country examples such as India, the Gulf States, African countries, Southeast Asian countries, and Latin American and Caribbean countries. Readers can review each part if they’re interested but nothing too unique was shared in any of them. They all adhere to the policymaking model hitherto described, albeit with some national specificities such as varying vulnerability to Western pressure, especially in the financial and developmental realms.
For these reasons, the authors advise Russia not to overreact whenever partners implement policies that don’t perfectly align with its own, let alone when they try to multi-align between Russia and the West. Supplementary advice is that “attempts to fit them into one’s own speculative geopolitical schemes would be a mistake”, which is also relevant for the AMC. Russia should also learn more about every World Majority country since they hint near the end that it might be lacking in expertise towards some.
All in all, the most important purpose of the report is that it lent authority to the observations that some have already noticed about the World Majority/Global South and applied towards their own work, such as in this analysis here from spring 2023. There’s not much else novel about it other than being the first comprehensive collection of such observations to be published in Russia by one of its top think tanks. Even so, average readers will still benefit from at least reviewing it, which they’re encouraged to do.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/heres-wh ... -brightest
******
"In case of a controversial outcome..."
October 13, 14:06
And this is how the West is presenting the upcoming elections in Georgia, not particularly hiding the fact that there will be protests and that the elections will be declared “unfair,” and also announcing the West’s participation in this.
Few expect a free and fair contest in a country where the ruling party is openly pro-Russian and unashamed of its anti-democratic tendencies.
Hello again! In Tbilisi, where I visited this month, the political atmosphere is ominously tense and magnetic. Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 26 are set to be the most important for the mountainous South Caucasus country since it emerged from the ashes of the Soviet Union in 1991.
At first glance, it might seem that Georgia faces two possible futures: a slide into authoritarianism and union with Russia if the ruling Georgian Dream party remains in power, or democracy and a pro-European path if a victorious opposition takes power. But this black-and-white picture is an oversimplification; the truth is far more complex.
Since the start of the Kremlin's special operation in Ukraine in February 2022, Georgia has become a battlefield on two fronts: between the Georgian Dream and its opponents on the one hand, and between their Russian and Western allies and patrons on the other. The degree of political division in Tbilisi is so great that during the election campaign there was not a single case when representatives of the government and the opposition argued with each other on television, radio or other media. There is not a shadow of mutual trust. The opposition has painful memories of the fate of the first independent Georgian state of modern times. It barely existed from 1918 to 1921, after which it was absorbed by the Soviet Union.
Now the opposition fears that if the Georgian Dream retains power, the country will fall completely under Russian influence and lose its precious and fragile democracy and civil liberties.
Such an outcome would be a painful blow to the interests and authority of the West. The United States and its European allies support Georgia's independence. The EU has even granted it candidate status for membership, though the process has stalled because of the Georgian Dream government’s backsliding on democracy and growing pro-Russian sympathies.
Moscow, for its part, continues to regard Georgia as part of its rightful sphere of influence on the post-Soviet frontier that separates Russia from the West. “The Russians never left Georgia, not even in their thoughts,” said one Western observer in Tbilisi. In a brief war in 2008, Russia effectively took control of two Georgian regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where it maintains some 10,000 troops and security personnel. South Ossetia is just an hour’s drive from Tbilisi. Right now, there is no sign of imminent Russian military intervention in Georgia. But it is inconceivable that the Kremlin would placidly accept the election results if a pro-Western government came to power in Tbilisi.
Writing for the Washington-based Center for a New American Security, Nicholas Locker and Andrea Kendall-Taylor wrote:
"Georgia now has perhaps the most pro-Russian government since independence in 1991, and in some cases the Georgian Dream is following Putin's playbook in its attempts to undermine democracy. Moscow's main goal is to ensure the stability of these pro-Russian forces, in particular the party's founder and de facto leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili."
But to frame the election as a straightforward contest between despotism and freedom, or between Russia and the West, is to miss key features of Georgia's political trajectory over the past three decades.
Writing for the Stockholm Centre for East European Studies, Markus Greisch hit the nail on the head. He identified three long-term problems that have dogged Georgia since independence:
The first is deep political and societal divisions. The second is that all Georgian governments sooner or later veer into authoritarianism.
The third is that the people paradoxically support both the EU and the Georgian Dream at the same time. This is frustrating Western leaders and raising doubts about how well Georgians understand what EU membership would entail.
Since 1991, every government that began as defenders of national independence and champions of political freedom has, sooner or later, slid into deeply flawed forms of autocracy, tainted by corruption and abuses of the rule of law. That was true of Zviad Gamsakhurdia, Georgia’s first post-communist president; Eduard Shevardnadze, once revered in the West as Mikhail Gorbachev’s visionary Soviet foreign minister; Mikheil Saakashvili, the reformer turned dictator; and now Ivanishvili.
The legacy of the Saakashvili era is a serious problem for Georgia’s four main opposition parties, explained political scientist Bidzina Lebanidze.
"Both the Georgian Dream and the opposition are disconnected from the majority of the population, and people feel alienated from the political process," Lebanidze writes.
"During their rule, Saakashvili and his party have alienated a critical mass of the electorate, who flatly refuse to vote for them at any time," he added.
Beka Chedia makes similar arguments for the Center for European Policy Analysis:
"In addition to fragmentation, the opposition also has an identity and self-awareness problem. Voters find it difficult to understand which of the small parties is part of which alliance and what it promises to voters."
In Tbilisi, one non-partisan analyst told me: "It is not enough to view the upcoming elections as a confrontation between pro-Western and pro-Russian forces. In the periphery, far from the capital, voters also see this as a kind of battle between Saakashvili and Ivanishvili." "In other words,“The image of Georgian politics as an arena for autocrats remains,” he emphasized.
Opinion polls on Georgia’s elections should be treated with caution. However, according to one independent expert, a private poll by Georgian Dream showed that it would struggle to get more than 40% of the vote.
However, under the proportional representation system, Georgian Dream could get just over half the seats in parliament even with 37-38% of the vote.
It would be a great help for the ruling party if one or more opposition parties failed to clear the 5% threshold.
Given Georgian Dream’s influence over the country’s election commissions, control of the judiciary, vote-buying and intimidation of opposition activists, it is not hard to imagine the lengths to which the party would go to ensure its victory.
Shota Gvineria, a former Georgian ambassador and national security expert, said: “The regime has systematically used state resources to influence voters, offering people benefits such as pardons, early release from prison and forgiveness of fines in exchange for support.”
The filling of the Central Election Commission and its regional offices with “insiders”, voter list manipulation and ballot falsification have seriously undermined the integrity of democratic processes and elections in Georgia.
The list of possible election outcomes covers a spectrum from good to terrible.
The least likely is the Polish scenario. A year ago, the illiberal conservative and nationalist government in Warsaw lost the elections to the opposition led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Despite some difficulties, Tusk and his allies were able to take office peacefully.
In Georgia, such an outcome seems unlikely to me. The ruling party does not intend to give up its positions, it has concentrated almost all the levers of state power in its hands and has all the means to falsify it at its disposal.
At the opposite end of the spectrum is the Belarusian scenario. In 2020, mass protests erupted after the Minsk dictator Alexander Lukashenko declared victory in a blatantly fraudulent presidential election.
Lukashenko's regime successfully dealt with the demonstrators, and today Belarus is as unfree as Putin's Russia.
The third option is the Serbian scenario. President Aleksandar Vucic and his ruling party regularly win elections in Serbia. They cannot be called completely free and fair, but the West always limits itself to scolding Vucic, because it sees sense in maintaining working relations with Serbia.
If Georgian Dream wins the election dishonestly, or loses but refuses to concede defeat, street protests against the government are possible. The history of post-communist Georgia offers plenty of clues about what might happen.
In 2003, public outrage over corruption and rigged elections sparked demonstrations that toppled then-President Shevardnadze.
By stepping down, Shevardnadze ensured that the "Rose Revolution," as it later became known, remained largely peaceful. Could the same thing happen after October 26? I doubt it. Ivanishvili is very different in temperament and motivation from Shevardnadze. He is a reclusive billionaire who made his fortune in Russia, and the Kremlin openly supports him.
Ideally, in the event of a disputed election outcome, the US and European governments would intervene to mediate, as they did during the Ukrainian Maidan revolution in 2014.
However, the new Ukrainian government and its Western friends have paid a high price for this change of power - Russia annexed Crimea, fomented a separatist rebellion in the Donbas, and in 2022 even sent in troops.
The fate of Georgia is being decided.
https://inosmi.ru/20241012/gruziya-270375101.html - zinc
"The fight for democracy is in full swing. Let's make Ukraine out of Georgia!"
The task is simple - to declare the elections illegitimate, present their results as "disputed" and provide conditions for US and EU intervention.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9436924.html
Google Translator
******
The Northern Aral Sea as a target of Western water strategy
October 12, 2024
Rybar
Recently, it became known about the plans of the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation to increase the volume of accumulated water in the lake. Minister Nurzhan Nurzhigitov spoke about this during a meeting with residents of the Kyzylorda region.
According to him, this will be the beginning of the second stage of the project to preserve and develop the Northern Aral Sea, which will be implemented jointly with the World Bank .
The first stage, which resulted in the construction of the Kokaral Dam , has already been completed.
A third stage is also planned. The Ministry of Water Resources describes it as an update of the information base and water resources management systems.
For control over water resources, the Northern Aral Sea is one of the key points, as the largest reservoir in the western part of the region.
Previously, attempts have been made to “ research” the sources of Central Asian rivers and use the Aral problem to infiltrate Western NGOs into the region.
In the near future, we should expect proposals to install Western water monitoring systems for the Northern Aral Sea to prevent the loss of a valuable resource.
https://rybar.ru/severnyj-aral-kak-czel ... strategii/
Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."