Russia today

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Wed Oct 16, 2024 3:16 pm

DMITRY ROGOZIN FOR PRESIDENT

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

According to the Russian Constitution amendments adopted in 2020, Vladimir Putin can run for re-election in 2030 and win another term until 2036, when he will be 84. The contest over the presidential succession may thus be postponed for another decade.

Or else it is under way already. That’s one of the stakes in the present argument in Moscow over how the Ukraine war should end between the General Staff and the Kremlin – between unconditional capitulation of the regime west of the Dnieper River to the Polish border, and the east-of-Dnieper terms Putin proposed at Istanbul in March 2022, and repeated in a speech to the Foreign Ministry this past June.

The debate in Moscow over the terms of Istanbul-I and of Putin’s proposed Istanbul-II involves much more than future control of the territories east of the Dnieper and of the territories to the west. The question is whether the military trust Putin to administer the outcome of the war which Russian voters believe has been won by the General Staff. In his June 14 speech Putin admitted to his audience of senior Foreign Ministry officials what they all knew – that he and the General Staff had disagreed over the “preservation of the Ukrainian sovereignty over these territories, provided Russia has a stable land bridge to Crimea.” Putin’s “land bridge” and other territorial concessions were dismissed by the General Staff.

One candidate has already tossed a military style cap into the succession race: this is Dmitry Medvedev, the one-term president and currently deputy secretary of the Security Council; he is 59 now, 71 in 2036.

In his Telegram platform, Medvedev has been a consistent advocate of the General Staff line: “In my opinion, recently, even theoretically, there has been one danger – the negotiation trap, into which our country could fall under certain circumstances; for example. Namely, the early unnecessary peace talks proposed by the international community and imposed on the Kiev regime with unclear prospects and consequences [Medvedev was referring to Istanbul-I]. After the neo-Nazis committed an act of terrorism in the Kursk region, everything has fallen into place. The idle chatter of unauthorized intermediaries on the topic of the beautiful world has been stopped. Now everyone understands everything, even if they don’t say it out loud. They understand that there will BE NO MORE NEGOTIATIONS UNTIL THE COMPLETE DEFEAT OF THE ENEMY! [Medvedev’s caps]”

Medvedev implies criticism of Putin but remains loyal in the hope of negotiating an amicable transfer of power between the two of them. At the same time Medvedev is signalling the General Staff that the military can trust him. But they don’t.

There is another succession candidate who is trusted by both the military and the voters, but who has not announced he is running. Putin is well aware of him; he has repeatedly tried to sideline him. This is Dmitry Rogozin, a presidential campaigner against Boris Yeltsin; Duma deputy and negotiator in Chechnya; ambassador to NATO; deputy prime minister in charge of the military industrial complex; head of Roskosmos, and now, after surviving a Ukrainian assassination attempt, senator for the Zaporozhye region in the Federation Council. Rogozin is 60; in 2036 he will be 72.

Rogozin is the son of a Russian Army general, grandson of a Russian Navy officer, great-grandson of a Red Army pilot, great-great-grandson of a general of the Russian Army in the war against Japan of 1904-05. Rogozin’s ancestors have been recorded in the Russian fight against the Teutonic Knights (13th century) and with Dmitry Pozharsky and Kuzma Minin in the war against the Poles (17th century). “That is to say,” Rogozin has written, “there have been some rather decent people in my family tree”.

In a recently published book, On the Western Front, Rogozin has said more explicitly: “The war against Ukrainian radical nationalism and Russophobia is not a confrontation between armies and military technologies, but our country’s response to an existential threat to our entire people, the entire Russian civilization. This is the restoration of historical justice. This is a common cause, in which the unity of the army, society and its political class must be manifested. This is the opportunity to kick out of the country (and not let back in!) the fifth column of traitors and globalisation-mongers. The war in Ukraine is a war for Ukraine and Russia, it is a holy war for the right of the Russian people to exist and reunite on their ancestral territory. This is a war against a much stronger and more resourceful enemy, a war to force the collective West, manipulated by the Anglo-Saxons and German revanchists, to recognize Russia’s right to a safe and independent future for our children. Therefore, there should be no ‘red lines’ for us in this war…I consider it fundamentally important to constantly show universal solidarity with our army. It is impossible to maintain the illusion that the army is ‘out there doing its job’, and we continue to live as before.”

A well-informed Moscow source explains: “I will agree that the General Staff have no friends in Kremlin. [Ex-Defense Minister Sergei] Shoigu and Putin’s mismanagement is blamed on them. Once they win the war, they will hit back. Or if they are not allowed to win, they will hit back. Among politicians Rogozin will be the only one with their confidence. His presence in the war zone earned him the respect of officers and men. He distanced himself from [Wagner rebel Yevgeny] Prigozhin in time. So he is not damaged goods.”

“How and when he can leverage this isn’t obvious,” the source adds a caution, warning that Putin understands the Army is a threat to his succession and is recruiting military officers to become his political protectors in the succession. Putin announced this scheme in a Kremlin ceremony on October 2, calling it “The Time of Heroes”.

The Moscow source comments: “I will not exclude several officers of mid rank – those Putin calls the new elite – will come into politics through Rodina at local and regional levels. The potency and potential is in mid ranking officers. Generals will be given cushy retirements. They will not go against Putin or the successor. This all has bad omens for Rogozin.”

Talk of the presidential succession in Moscow is strictly private. There has been no discussion, not even a passing reference to Rogozin’s credentials as a presidential candidate, in the mainstream media, in the running commentary on war operations in the military blogs, or in the nationalist press like Tsargrad.

Those who support him acknowledge the danger of provoking the Kremlin. “I don’t see any signs Putin will allow him to rise to that level” comments a Moscow source. He understands the debate over Putin’s end-of-war terms and territorial concessions is also a test of domestic political power, a rehearsal for the next presidential election.

Rogozin’s writing deals explicitly, and with the assurance of a direct participant in many of the policy and partisan battles, with ex-presidents Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin, their rise and fall from power, together with their associates. He is scathing towards the Russian foreign ministers Andrei Kozyrev (1990-96) and Igor Ivanov (1998-2004). He is not less so towards the “devilish trinity of Marx, Engels and Lenin”. “It has to be pointed out that the classics of Marxism and Leninism generally disliked Russia and the Russian people; therefore, the fact that socialism had been established for the long seventy years is to be regarded as a misunderstanding , a paradox and an irony of history. The contempt with which Karl Marx refers to the Slavic nations is simply astonishing.”

That quote is from Rogozin’s The Hawks of Peace, Notes of the Russian Ambassador, a collection of autobiographical essays published in English in 2013. The chapters reappear in the new Russian publication of 2023, On the Western Front, The Devil of Change.

Putin does not appear until Rogozin is more than half way through his book. “Young and energetic”, Rogozin acknowledged him at first. “[He] got down to business straight away…Frankly, I took a liking to ‘Putin the Hawk’.”

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Left -- https://www.amazon.com/Hawks-Peace-Note ... mbassador/ Right -- https://www.google.ru/books/

Rogozin chronicles his direct dealings with Putin with neutral precision on several issues – Russian engagement with the European parliament; the Chechen wars, the Beslan hostage-taking (2004) and negotiations with the Chechen leader, Akhmad Kadyrov; the status of Transdniestria and Kaliningrad; and domestic party politics and electioneering. “My previous personal experience of contacts with Mr Putin led me to believe that we held similar views.” He identifies the points on which Putin did not agree with him. He also hints that Putin would lead him to believe one thing, then do another.

“’Why don’t we combine ideas of healthy conservatism with the struggle for social justice in this country that is ripped off by corrupt thieves and oligarchs?’ I thought and decided for the time being not to attempt to unconvince Putin as to the potential ideological and practical objectives of a new project that we had come up with.” This was in 2004. In his retelling of his career in political and military administration since then – Rogozin has doctorates for two theses, “Philosophy and Theory of Wars” and “Weapons theory, military-technical policy, weapons systems” — Rogozin has challenged Putin’s constituencies but not Putin directly.

Rogozin has been consistently hostile to Putin’s economic policy advisors, Anatoly Chubais and Alexei Kudrin, the longest standing leftovers Putin has preserved from the Yeltsin administration; and to the oligarchs whom Rogozin has castigated as their paymasters. “Astounding it is how people like [Chubais] came to power”, Rogozin comments in his 2013 book. His tongue was in his cheek, and in check: Rogozin implies he knows exactly how Chubais (and his protégé Kudrin) came to power and how they kept it through 2022.

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The Kremlin archive records Rogozin’s direct meetings with both President Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev over 22 years. Top: July 30, 2002 – Putin meets Rogozin, then chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs and Putin’s special envoy to the Kaliningrad Region. Below: April 12, 2022 – Putin and Rogozin meet in Blagoveschensk when Rogozin was General Director of the Roscosmos State Corporation for Space Activities. Putin signed a decree dismissing Rogozin twelve weeks later on July 15, 2022. The opposition platform Meduza reported from Latvia that “Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin is slated to join the Russian presidential administration in the near future, Meduza has learned from three sources close to the Kremlin and an acquaintance of Rogozin’s. Exactly what position Rogozin will take is still under discussion. According to one of Meduza’s sources, Rogozin is currently one of several candidates for chief of staff (the other candidates are unknown)… Another possibility, according to Meduza’s sources, is that Dmitry Rogozin will become one of the Kremlin’s supervisors for the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics and the other Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine. In that case, Rogozin would officially be a presidential aide or a deputy chief of staff, and would replace Dmitry Kozak.” In the outcome, Rogozin was passed over for Kozak’s post, and instead Putin replaced him with Vladimir Medinsky. For the significance of Medinsky in Putin’s end-of-war negotiations with the US, read this. For Kozak’s role in running the Ukraine portfolio, read this. Before Kozak on the Ukraine portfolio, there was Vladislav Surkov. Surkov, Kozak and Rogozin are unacceptable to the US; all three are sanctioned. Medinsky is acceptable to Washington and is not sanctioned. For seventeen months after Putin had removed Rogozin from Roskosmos, the president delayed before announcing Rogozin’s appointment as senator for Zaporzhye on September 23, 2023. The milbloggers saluted: “Today, the commander of the ‘Tsar’s Wolves’ is perhaps the only senator in Russia, or even in the world, who fights on the front line. Rogozin once said that his main goal was to liberate Ukraine from fascism.” Putin had decided to subordinate Rogozin to Medinsky, and keep him out of Moscow.

In the prologue to his latest book, Rogozin writes: “I tried to write this book as truthfully as possible, reproducing important dialogues and details of events from memory. Of course, my assessments of the behaviour of specific politicians of the modern Russian and European eras may seem subjective to you, dear reader. All right. After all, I was a direct participant in the events described in the book. To some, these assessments will seem overly emotional, to others – completely politically incorrect. I apologize in advance. It’s all our bad Russian habit: to call a scoundrel a scoundrel, and a hero a hero…”

“Unfortunately, the events of recent years have confirmed all my previous concerns about the possible development of the situation in Ukraine. I could not ignore this topic, just as I could not help but speak out about the behavior of our so-called ‘cream of society’ in a time threatening for the Motherland. With such ‘friends of the people’, we don’t need enemies either. Even now, during the period of the Special Military Liberation Operation [sic], which is objectively inevitable, given the threats emanating from the Kiev junta to exterminate the Russian population of Ukraine and the approach of NATO’s military potential to our borders, little has changed in our ‘elite’. What can this ‘elite’ offer to the people of Ukraine being liberated by our army? How is it better than the Kiev ‘elite’, which has brought Ukraine to the bestiality of Russophobia? How can you pretend that nothing has happened in the country and continue to drink champagne and eat éclairs at fireworks festivals at the very moment when tens of thousands of our soldiers, risking their lives, are performing a combat mission? Do our people really have a split personality? Or those who do not stop having fun even in the most threatening moments for our army.”

A search of the Russian press has found no review essays or analyses of Rogozin’s books or the views he has advocated in his political commands. The Kremlin-directed television talk shows and the internet media like Vzglyad ignore him.


On the platform left to him, Rogozin reveals between the lines that the present and pressing context is the end-of-war negotiations being conducted by the Kremlin with Donald Trump and others.

On September 16 — “[NATO secretary-general
just retired Jens Stoltenberg is] the rarest specimen
of the earth’s freaks… The skeleton of Goebbels,
or whatever else was left of that bastard, was
even sweating with envy. It’s necessary to say something like Germany is not a party to the conflict with the USSR if its planes bomb Moscow. Listen Stoltenberg, tell your wife fairy tales that you spent too much time in the NATO library in the evening. Lying scum. Air strikes by NATO countries on the territory of our country are a declaration of war. There will be no other interpretation of this act of aggression. If you keep lying, I’ll go back to Brussels and box your ears, you disgusting liar. And then I’ll string you up on one of those poplars I planted there.”

On September 26 — “Yesterday overnight, several colleagues who worked with me in Brussels informed me, without giving too many details, that now the most important question that is being discussed in NATO is: how many days after the appearance of NATO troops in Ukraine, Russia will use nuclear weapons against them. That is, what will apply suddenly dawned on everyone, the only question is exactly how many days will remain before the Apocalypse. They argue — some say in two weeks; others say it will take no more than 10 days.”

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“[Putin] Thus, the draft Basic Principles expand the category of states and military alliances in respect of which nuclear deterrence is exercised and expand the list of military threats to be neutralised by nuclear deterrence measures. I would like to draw your attention specifically to the following. The updated version of the document is supposed to regard an aggression against Russia from any non-nuclear state but involving or supported by any nuclear state as their joint attack against the Russian Federation. It also states clearly the conditions for Russia’s transition to the use of nuclear weapons. We will consider such a possibility once we receive reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing our state border. I mean strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, UAVs, hypersonic and other aircraft.” Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/

In the Security Council Putin had spoken of a draft of the revised nuclear deterrence to include non-nuclear states like Ukraine, Romania, Poland and Germany acting under US control; the implication in the Kremlin communiqué was that the president was delaying his personal approval of the “updates…proposed in terms of defining the conditions for using nuclear weapons.”

In Rogozin’s view, the Russian decision to use nuclear weapons against the non-nuclear states allowing the US to store, install and aim their nuclear weapons at Russian targets is a collective military decision, and that it has been made.

“This time, reports on the results of yesterday’s meeting of our Security Council were perceived in Brussels not as bluff and empty threats, but more than seriously. In the corridors of the Brussels headquarters of the North Atlantic Alliance, after reading the embassy dispatches from Moscow, the fear of losing everything in the imminent and rapidly impending nuclear conflict began to spread with the speed of a stink. Well, yes, it’s one thing to poison a Russian bear locked in a cage, it’s another thing to go into his cage after all this harassment. You can make good money by pitting Russia against Ukraine, this bastard product of Bolshevism. But to die for Ukraine? No, of course not. In the West, no one is ready for such a development of this story. And if we really prove, probably not to them, but, above all, to ourselves, that we are ready to go on to the end, then this is the only way to stop the bloodshed and defeat the collective enemy. If we falter, we will begin to dodge, dodge, fawn — death awaits us.”

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Source: https://t.me/rogozin_do/6389

“Today, on September 30, our country celebrates a memorable date – the Day of the reunification of the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Lugansk People’s Republic, the Zaporozhye region and the Kherson region with the Russian Federation. On this day in 2022 in the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin, the heads of the two people’s republics and the two regions signed international agreements on entering (more correctly to say, return) of the regions of Novorossiya to Russia – based on the results of earlier referendums. And this means that the capital of my region is the city of Zaporozhye, as well as Stepnorsk, Gulyaipol, Orekhov should be liberated from the presence of foreign troops – Ukrainian and NATO… If we do not want the war to spread to our children and grandchildren, we must finally crush this bastion and go further to the Polish border. Otherwise, the bloodshed and threats of Russia and the Russian people will never end.”

Last year in the book On the Western Front Rogozin had written: “The country and society must live by the interests of the front. The one who is ready to go to the end always wins. And our people are ready to go into battle only for a clear goal for them. Not for money. You can learn to kill for money, but you can’t learn to die for money. Our army in Ukraine is fighting for the Motherland. We have no right to lose. This is our army and our destiny.”

This means no Kremlin negotiations until the Russian Army reaches the Polish border, and on the way eliminates the regime in Kiev.

https://johnhelmer.net/dmitry-rogozin-f ... more-90451

*****

The Great Game’s other principal presenter: Dmitry Simes

As I noted on these pages more than a year ago, Dmitry Simes, the former adviser and traveling companion of Richard Nixon in his post-presidential years, later, following the president’s death, head of the Nixon Center think tank, which was eventually renamed The Center for the National Interest, this Dmitry Simes picked up stakes and moved back to his native Russia in the days immediately following the start of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine. He took this decision because it had become clear to him that his fair-minded, fact-based approach to Russian affairs had become untenable in present American political conditions of nearly hysterical Russophobia. Upon moving, Simes received a prestigious and well-paying appointment as one of the three presenters on Russia’s most authoritative political talk show, The Great Game.

In fact, when he was still head of the Washington think tank and responsible for its widely read publications, Simes already accumulated years of experience working with the founder and chief moderator of Russia’s leading talk show, the highly visible United Russia politician and statesman, Vyacheslav Nikonov. Simes was then the Washington anchor for the show’s ‘tele-bridge’ broadcasts during which he mostly presented his observations on latest developments in American political life and interviewed many outstanding public figures, in English, of course, with Russian simultaneous translation.

Simes’ new employment following his move to Moscow did not pass unnoticed by the powers that be in Washington, and several months ago the FBI entered the home he left behind in Virginia, confiscated his papers and other possessions. Charges were subsequently brought against Simes for financial crimes of ‘money laundering’ (meaning investing his spare cash in paintings and other antiques kept in his house) and for violating the standing prohibition on working for what are called Russian state propaganda broadcasters.

Despite these legal problems in the States, Simes performs his duties on The Great Game with his characteristic professionalism. I regret that I do not regularly watch his segment of the nearly 3 hours that this news wrap and panel discussion show appears on Pervy Kanal each weekday, but there are limits to how long one can sit in front of the tube and still have time to engage with the real world and to write. All three segments can be viewed as podcasts on www.rutube.ru

*****

This morning, I decided to see what Simes is up to and I was not disappointed. He had his own panel of guests, different from those who appeared on the first segment with Nikonov. These guests included the Chairman of the Duma committee on defense, Andrei Kartapolov, and Andrei Sushentsov, the dean of international affairs in MGIMO University, an institution which is best known for training the vast majority of Russia’s senior diplomats including its long-time Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov.

The lead subjects of Simes’ segment were the very same items that you could find on the 20.00 o’clock prime time Vesti news wrap-up on Rossiya 1 yesterday but they were dealt with more profoundly by these and the other panelists who are insiders with hands-on responsibility, as opposed to journalists or the usual contingent of political scientists.

Kartapolov opened with some remarks on a matter in which he is directly involved at present: seeing the agreement on strategic cooperation with North Korea, which includes provisions for mutual defense, through the ratification process in the State Duma. He then moved on to a more tantalizing subject, namely the ongoing state visit of Russia’s Defense Minister Belousov in Beijing, observing how both Russians and Chinese projected self-confidence: “both parties are ready to defend their shared political, economic and military interests and objectives with military force.” The mention of military force here was not casual and slotted perfectly into what Sushentov had to say on behalf of MGIMO.

Dean Sushentsov and one other representative of MGIMO, neither of whom is a regular guest on talk shows, were present yesterday to mark the 80th anniversary of the founding of MGIMO by the Communist leader Molotov.

Molotov just happens to be the grandfather of the principal host of The Great Game, Vyacheslav Nikonov, which might explain the special interest the institution attracted on this show yesterday. But then again, MGIMO just happens to be the alma mater of a broad array of present-day leading statesmen in Russia and abroad. Several photos of such statesmen were put up on the screen, including one of the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

Returning to Sushentsov, it is noteworthy that he is just 41 and clearly a rising star in the Russian academic and foreign policy world. Within the field, he has specialized in American studies. He is the author of a textbook entitled “Megatrends: the basic trajectories in the evolution of the world order in the 21st century.” The titles of all his scholarly works are highly attractive, none more so than “Keeping Sane in a Crumbling World.”

Sushentsov used his turn at the microphone to mention that MGIMO has been awarded the state Order of Alexander Nevsky, the significance of which he explained. In a word, Grand Prince Alexander Nevsky of Novgorod was a 13th century warrior-diplomat who was eventually admitted to sainthood by the Church. He was victorious over the Livonian (German – Swedish) Order as military commander in a famous battle on the ice of Lake Chudskoye. He was also the diplomat who found a modus vivendi with the Mongol Horde that had taken possession of all of European Russia. In the context of MGIMO, this award confirms that diplomacy must be based on strength. This meshed with Duma member Kartapolov’s statement earlier in the show that both Russia and China have the strength to deal with the West, “which only understands force.”

*****

As regards relations with China, Kartapolov and Simes agreed that the closeness in military relations between the two today was something utterly unforeseeable just five years ago. For this, of course, they have to be thankful to Washington for its utterly mad decision to encircle, contain and threaten both great powers simultaneously.

I close today’s edition with a remark on a very interesting exchange with respect to the visit in Beijing of Defense Minister Belousov that took place in the first segment of The Great Game moderated by Nikonov. He and a Chinese specialist in his 30s who is a frequent guest on the show discussed the timing of the Minister’s visit, which happens to coincide with the unprecedented Chinese ‘naval exercises’ that have closed the Taiwan Strait and encircled the island of Taiwan in a sort of dress rehearsal for its forced integration into the PRC. The specialist insisted that the timing of the naval blockade was unforeseen, triggered by a speech avowing independence by the President in Taiwan last Thursday. Meanwhile, the visit of Belousov had been planned well in advance to follow and share conclusions about the recently concluded joint naval exercises in the Pacific and elsewhere by some 400 Chinese and Russian ships. Nonetheless, this fortuitous coincidence was welcomed by both the Chinese and Russian sides as a timely opportunity to exchange notes on the overall security situation in East Asia, in West Asia at a time of high global tensions.

The video images of Belousov and his Chinese counterpart at their concluding statements to the press shows both sides to be relaxed and the atmosphere to be cordial. This would suggest that if the Chinese are coaxing the Russians to restrain Iran in its growing confrontation with Israel, they are doing so in friendly and trusting manner.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/10/16/ ... try-simes/

******

The ruble has become the main currency for settlements with Asian countries for the first time

Central Bank: Ruble Becomes Main Currency for Payments for Imports from Asia for the First Time

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© RIA Novosti / Alexey Sukhorukov

MOSCOW, 15 Oct — RIA Novosti. The ruble became the main currency for payments for imports of goods and services from Asian countries for the first time in August, according to RIA Novosti’s analysis of data from the Bank of Russia.
At the end of summer, its share in payments reached a record 43.6% against 42.9% a month earlier. At the same time, the share of the ruble exceeded the currencies of friendly countries in August by 0.6 percentage points, which allowed the Russian currency to become the main one for paying for deliveries.

The ruble has become Russia's main foreign trade currency

The last time the ruble exceeded the share of friendly currencies in imports from Asian countries was in February 2022, but then the main settlements were made in "toxic" currencies.

The ruble also took a record share in payments for African goods, increasing by 0.5 percentage points to 69.9%, as well as for deliveries from Oceania, where it is used to pay for 84.3%.

Overall, the Russian currency began to be used in imports slightly less in August — 44.7% against 45.9% in July. At the same time, the share of friendly currencies also decreased — by 2.2 percentage points, to 31.2%. But the main beneficiaries were the "toxic" currencies, which began to pay for 24.1% of Russian imports against 20.7% a month earlier.

This was mainly due to an increase in the share of unfriendly currencies in payments for imports from Asia (+1.1 percentage points, 13.3%), America (+8.3 percentage points, 71%) and Europe (+6.9 percentage points, 49.3%).

https://ria.ru/20241015/rubl-1978210545.html

Google Translator

******

Navalny aides accused of legitimizing fraudsters
October 15, 2024 natyliesb
The Bell, 10/7/24

‘Reputation whitewashing’ scandal rocks Russian opposition

Yet another scandal is tearing the Russian opposition apart. This time, the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), set up by the late Alexei Navalny, is under fire. Maxim Katz, a former municipal deputy turned popular YouTuber, released an investigation that accuses the foundation of close ties with fugitive Russian bankers and alleged that the organization is receiving funds from people who are accused of fraud.

*Katz’s video is dedicated to Alexander Zheleznyak and Sergei Leontiev, the former co-founders of Probusinessbank. In the 2010s, the bank ranked 51st in Russia in terms of its assets, but it was stripped of its license by the Central Bank in 2015 and later filed for bankruptcy. When checking the bank’s financial situation, the regulator found large-scale operations to withdraw assets and losses caused by the bank’s management, estimated to run into hundreds of millions of dollars. In 2017, Zheleznyak and Leontiev, who fled Russia as soon as Probusinessbank hit trouble, were arrested in absentia.

*In his investigation, Katz leaned heavily on the long-established facts of the Probusinessbank case, adding in some previously unpublished documents. Katz got these from a group of former depositors, led by Nerses Grigoryan, who are trying to sue to recover their money. The main allegation is that Zheleznyak and Leontiev stole billions from depositors in Probusinessbank and then fled Russia. Once in the West, they reinvented themselves as entrepreneurs persecuted because of their criticisms of Putin’s regime.

*Zheleznyak and Leontiev repeatedly claimed that their troubles with the authorities began after 2012 following an attempt to launch a bank card from which 1% of purchases would be transferred to Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation — at the bank’s expense rather than the cardholder’s. There were talks about releasing the card, but it never saw the light of day. Zheleznyak and Leontiev allegedly had to abandon the idea amid pressure from the government and the Central Bank. Katz disputes this account, saying that there were no visible sanctions from the authorities at the time. Later, Probusinessbank was entrusted with rehabilitating a bank that ran into problems and Zheleznyak was even presented with a state award and worked on the State Duma’s expert council on security and combating corruption.

*Zheleznyak and Leontiev have played a noticeable role in the Anti-Corruption Foundation from abroad in recent years. Katz alleges they have used it to try to whitewash their reputations. Zheleznyak was the founder of the group’s legal entity in the United States and signs important documents on its behalf each month, while Leontiev makes a monthly donation of $20,000.

*After the investigation was released, the Anti-Corruption Foundation’s leading figures did not comment on the substance of the allegations and called for their followers to wait for a more “detailed response” to follow. Chair Maria Pevchikh complained that “we will have to do this to the detriment of our real work.” Leonid Volkov, one of its directors who was last year embroiled in a scandal over issuing a letter in support of sanctioned Russian oligarchs, dismissed all claims of “whitewashing.”

*Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former oil magnate turned opposition figure who is also embroiled in a row with the Anti-Corruption Foundation over separate allegations, said that he was shocked at the reaction from the group and its failure to give a detailed response. “When an outrageous situation becomes public it raises the question of the need for greater transparency in the funding of opposition forces and the compliance of their activities with Western legal standards,” he said.

Why the world should care:

After the war in Ukraine and especially after the death of Alexei Navalny, there were great hopes for unity among the opposition in exile. This latest scandal shows yet again that this is unlikely to happen — at least in the foreseeable future. For now, it seems that key figures and groups are more interested in fighting their own turf wars than joining a collective struggle against the Putin regime.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/nav ... raudsters/

Well, Navalny was a fraud, so why not?
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Fri Oct 18, 2024 3:34 pm

Uriel Araujo: Gulf of Finland may become site of new conflict between NATO and Russia
October 17, 2024
By Uriel Araujo, InfoBrics, 10/4/24


Uriel Araujo, PhD, anthropology researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts

Finland and Estonia, two NATO countries, have recently signed an agreement about Baltic Sea security. Moreover, and more importantly, they have announced their intention to blockade the Gulf of Finland by closing it to Russian shipping. The Russian Foreign Ministry reacted by stating that Russia would regard any such action as a violation of maritime law. Establishing their boundaries (pertaining to the Gulf of Finland’s contiguous zones) would be within their sovereign rights, of course. However, restricting maritime shipping the way they intend to do cannot be described as anything else than a violation of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea – with potential serious consequences.

The Gulf of Finland extends to Saint Petersburg in Russia to the east. Its southern coast contains a network of ports plus the Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant. The port of Primorsk at the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland is important for oil products, for example – there are several others. It would be hard to exaggerate the importance of the gulf for Russia. For one thing the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline began in Finnish waters.

With that said, as Pavel Klachkov (Russian political scientist and a Financial University director) remarks, NATO’s military presence is increasing in the Baltic region, which is such a strategic area for Russia as well. In April, for instance, NATO joint military exercises commenced in Lithuania. Finland’s accession to the Alliance, he argues, gave “new momentum to the northern direction, where conditions are being created for a potential conflict between NATO and Russia.” The Atlantic Alliance has also begun setting up a headquarters in Mikkeli, a Finnish city, which lies very close to the Russian border.

He adds: “Since Finland joined the North Atlantic Alliance, it has quickly integrated into its operational structure and actively participates in exercises. These maneuvers are not merely a show of force — they are a rehearsal for possible military conflict scenarios with Russia. NATO’s active operations in the Kola Peninsula and the Gulf of Finland, both in close proximity to Russia’s borders, are particularly notable.”

Moreover, NATO exercises have been rehearsing the blockade of key routes for Russia – both the Suwalki Gap and the Gulf of Finland are crucial for supplying Russia’s northwestern regions. This is the larger context behind the recent Finnish-Estonian announcement.

After the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid, Biden famously said that Russian President Vladimir Putin was looking for the “Finlandization of Europe”, but would instead get the “NATOization” of that continent. With the accession of Sweden and Finland, the Atlantic Alliance’s territorial reach has extended as far out as the Russian eastward Arctic flank, thereby making Russia the only non-NATO country in the Arctic. Many Western journalists and commentators would be quick to dismiss the aforementioned Russian political scientist’s analysis about NATO enlargement as “Russian propaganda”. However, going back in time a bit, in December 2019, Mark Cancian (a defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies) wrote that “it’s time to stop NATO expansion. He commented back then on the American support for North Macedonia’s membership in the NATO alliance, and wrote that “a larger NATO embroils the United States in obscure regional disputes, commits it to defend exposed countries, and unnecessarily antagonizes the Russians.” Voices like that of Cancian or – to name a more famous Western political scientist – that of John Mearsheimer have largely been ignored by American policy-makers. This is unfortunate.

In November 2020 I wrote that, under Joe Biden’s presidency, Washington would pursue the policy of countering and encircling Russia, bringing changes not only in US relations to Ukraine and Eastern Europe, but to the entirety of Europe. At the time, tensions were rising in most – if not all – countries neighboring Russia. For one thing, in September 2020 NATO troops took part in provocative military exercises in Estonia near the Russian border.

Earlier that same year Washington sent no less than 20,000 troops to Europe to take part in the NATO exercise “Defender Europe 20”, It involved 18 countries across 10 European nations, including Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Georgia (all of which share a border with the Russian Federation). It was described as the “largest military exercises on the continent since before the end of the Cold War.” From 2020 onwards things intensified considerably – with vast consequences for the continent and the whole world.

Considering all of this, it is really quite impossible to disregard Russian concerns and complaints about NATO expansion (or about Ukraine’s relations with the Alliance, for that mere) as nonsense or mere rhetoric. From a Russian perspective, those are of course valid concerns pertaining to its national security and vital interests. The Atlantic Alliance appetite for growth since at least 1999, with its breach of the 1990 promise, has in fact been one of the main causes of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine since 2014. One could arguably reason that Moscow’s main goals (culminating in the 2022 campaign) have been basically a response to that.

Ukraine is of course a focal point for tensions due to many reasons, historically. NATO-Russian tensions however extend way beyond the Ukrainian question. There is indeed a lot of room for escalating such frictions in the Northern flank of the Alliance. And the US-led West seems to be bent on doing precisely that – which once again makes the world a less secure place.

Source: InfoBrics

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/uri ... nd-russia/

******

Biden’s Interest In Nuclear Talks With Russia Is A Response To Trump’s Recent Rhetoric

Andrew Korybko
Oct 18, 2024

The American elite acknowledge that average people are worried about World War III.

Biden said over the weekend that “The United States stands ready to engage in talks with Russia, China, and North Korea without preconditions to reduce the nuclear threat”, but this is an insincere statement that’s only being spewed in response to Trump’s recent rhetoric on this subject resonating with voters. The Republican candidate claimed during a podcast that he was on the brink of a denuclearization deal with Russia and China, a month prior to which he warned that Kamala could spark World War III.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov rubbished Trump’s claim of a possible deal by retorting that “this does not correspond to reality. We are well aware that the Trump administration’s attempts to bring Chinese representatives to the same negotiating table with us were unsuccessful.” Nevertheless, average Americans will likely never hear what that he had to say, hence why they might believe Trump. It’s with this in mind and amidst his rising poll numbers that Biden took a stab at this issue.

The outgoing leader’s handlers also assumed that average Americans are ignorant of this subject and won’t ever hear the Russian side of the story otherwise they wouldn’t have put him up to saying what he just did about the US’ readiness to engage in talks with Russia to reduce the nuclear threat. That’s because Putin suspended participation in the New START in February 2023 and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed that it won’t resume such talks with the US till after the Ukrainian Conflict ends.

Those who follow this already know that, but average Americans don’t, hence why some might fall for Biden’s implied suggestion that Kamala would continue this peaceful policy if she wins. World War III has never been discussed by them as much as it is now after Russia’s recently revised nuclear doctrine, which the Mainstream Media greatly fearmongered about, and unprecedented Israeli-Iranian tensions. Many people are therefore very scared and thus receptive to talk about avoiding World War III.

Both Trump and Biden are lying as was explained, but the first comes off as more believable given the false perception that he was close to Putin and might accordingly have stood a chance at pulling this off, while the second doesn’t have much credibility given his well-known dementia. In any case, since most Americans don’t know that they’re being misled, they might only have the impression that Biden is desperately pulling a page from Trump’s playbook in order to help Kamala.

The takeaway is that the American elite acknowledge that average people are worried about World War III, which is why Trump has made a big deal about how he’ll allegedly prevent this if he returns to office, and then Biden was advised to make it seem like he’s already trying to do so. In reality, the greatest risk of this scenario comes from hawkish forces in the country’s permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”), who’ve proven their ability to work behind presidents’ backs.

It's they, much more so than whoever the president may be at any given time, who hold the future of the world in their palms and could end it if they miscalculate in their proxy war on Russia. This doesn’t mean that the risk will remain forever, since presidents can partially counteract these hawkish “deep state” forces, but just that it’s still acute and somewhat beyond their power to stop. Trump might do a better job at this than Kamala, but he’s also erratic, so he might inadvertently worsen such threats.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/bidens-i ... lear-talks

When push comes to shove in the 'Great Game' our capitalist masters will risk the poisoning of the planet and destruction of civilization to maintain their hegemony. It is up to us .

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The State Duma has adopted in the first reading a law banning child-free propaganda

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The State Duma has adopted in the first reading a law banning the propaganda of child-free people on the Internet.
Yesterday, the Duma once again explained that the ban on propaganda does not mean that people will be forced to have children. Volodin had earlier attributed fines for childlessness to the crazy initiatives of individual deputies.
In general, it's like with homosexuals. You can't propagate, but you can be a homosexual.
Accordingly, it is forbidden to agitate for child-free, but it is possible to consciously not have children.

Violation of the law is subject to various fines for individuals, legal entities and state structures.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9445111.html

Google Translator

In their culture war backlash against Western influence the Russians take a rather broad definition of 'propaganda'... Being 'childless' myself I do take exception.

In this case given Russian demographics one can understand the government's interest, nonetheless migration from the 'Near Abroad' could mitigate that issue though terrorists concerns cause many to take a dim view. Russia has had serious problems with Islamic terrorism instigated and aggravated by US vassals on the Arabian Peninsula.

The homophobia displayed even by purported communists is deplorable, the result of patriarchal religion and was continued in Soviet times with some queers incarcerated in nut houses for mistaken 'scientific' reasons. But the West has further aggravated by pushing the nonsensical and anti-materialist 'Queer Theory', metaphysical gibberish seemingly designed to divide the working class. We were progressing better without it.

I haven't a clue what the beef is with 'four wheeled bikes' and Furries.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Mon Oct 21, 2024 3:47 pm

RUSSIAN “RESTRAINT” TOWARDS ASSASSINATION OF ARAB LEADERS

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

The Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi was murdered on October 20, 2011, and to mark the thirteenth anniversary of his death, the Russian Foreign Ministry received Qaddafi’s daughter, Aisha Qaddafi, in Moscow on Friday. This is the first open meeting in Russia between high-ranking Russian officials and the Qaddafi family.

The political significance was buried in the communiqué. “On October 18, the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for the Middle East and Africa, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Mikhail Bogdanov received Libyan public figure and artist Aisha Gaddafi, who is in Moscow in connection with the opening of an exhibition of her paintings at the State Museum of the East. During the conversation, issues of further strengthening historically friendly Russian-Libyan ties in the scientific, cultural and educational spheres were discussed. At the same time, the Russian side confirmed its unchanged position in support of achieving Libyan national accord in the interests of ensuring the unity, territorial integrity and state sovereignty of Libya.”

The official reason for Aisha Qaddafi’s visit to Moscow to open the exhibition of her paintings omitted that the paintings are in memory of her father, brother and other members of her family assassinated by the US and its proxies in Libya. “I show these works for the first time to honour my father and my brother on the anniversary of their deaths,” Qaddafi said in Moscow. “I can tell you that these pictures are painted not with my hand but with my heart.”

Assassination of Qaddafi had been a secret US Government policy during the Carter Administration and then an open policy of the Reagan Administration. Assassination of the Arabs of Palestine, including the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, is the open policy of the current US and Israeli governments.

In this context, the unofficial reason for Aisha Qaddafi’s visit to Moscow is that the Russian Foreign Ministry is signaling its opposition to this decades-old US and Israeli policy. The signal also hints through several years of rumour and disinformation at fresh Russian support – that means armed protection – for Saif Qaddafi’s campaign to become the end-of-civil war president of Libya. “If the Libyans choose a strong president,” Saif told the New York Times in 2021, “the only thing is a strong president. That’s it. The Libyans will choose a strong one. Everything will be solved automatically.”

For the story of US policy to kill Qaddafi, read the book, Chapter 7:

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Left: https://www.amazon.com/

Centre: Qaddafi hosts Putin in Tripoli in April 2008. Right: Putin’s support for Qaddafi was reinforced by oligarch interests such as Rusal’s Oleg Deripaska. His interest, backed by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, was to combine and revolutionize the economies of black West Africa and the Arab Maghreb through the Guinea-Libya bauxite, alumina and gas project. That project was a strategic threat to the US and European Union metal industries, but not only them. The US assassination attempts against Qaddafi precipitated an argument among President Dmitry Medvedev and other policymakers in Moscow, including then prime minister Putin, which was reported openly at the time. “ ‘What kind of no-fly zone is this if they are striking palaces [Qaddafi’s family compound] every night?’” Putin said. ‘What do they need to bomb palaces for? To drive out the mice?’”

Russian policy towards Qaddafi has been chronicled here. Then as President Dmitry Medvedev issued the collective Russian decision to make its lethal break with Qaddafi in February 2011 – the first such break by the Kremlin since Qaddafi took power in 1969 – Medvedev called “on Libya’s current authorities and all responsible political figures in the country to show restraint in order to prevent further deterioration of the situation and deaths of civilians.”

In Russian diplo-speak, “restraint” means “Russia will not intervene if you do your worst”.

When Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of Hamas was assassinated in Teheran on July 31, the official Russian government statement called for the “all the parties involved to exercise restraint and avoid any steps that could dramatically worsen the security situation in the region, leading to a large-scale military confrontation.”

“It is obvious”, to use the official language, that it had been Israel which had directed Haniyeh’s assassination. Equally plain is that the Foreign Ministry refused to say so. “It is obvious that those who organised this political assassination understood that these actions were fraught with dangerous consequences for the entire region. There is no doubt that Ismail Haniyeh’s killing will have an extremely negative impact on the indirect contacts between Hamas and Israel, which offered a framework for achieving a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on mutually acceptable terms.”

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov crept closer to the obvious a month later, telling a Russian state television documentary aimed at the Arab audience, “the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran during the inauguration ceremony of the new president is, without a doubt, a provocation. Iran chose not to respond, but made it clear that it reserves the right to do so because its territorial integrity and sovereignty had been violated. It was a premeditated assassination of an Iranian government guest. When Teheran stated it reserved the right to respond, the Americans tried to tell Iran that it probably shouldn’t. Even President Macron and other EU figures started saying they were urging Iran… They’ve turned everything upside down. It’s no longer Israel that needs to be calmed down and to stop committing political assassinations; instead, Iran is expected to swallow this and to gear up for more provocations that might push it to make rash decisions, while it is supposed to keep quiet about everything and just acquiesce to it.”

Lavrov is identifying Israel as “committing political assassinations”; he and the ministry have not identified the US and Israel as committing genocide in Gaza. The official ministry term is “collective punishment”.

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Source: https://mid.ru/en/

The Ministry archive indicates that Russia officially recognizes genocide attempted by the Germans against Russians and Jews; by the Turks against the Armenians; by the Ukrainians against Russians in the Donbass.

The Russian terminological problem, and the official restraint this reflects towards Israel’s policy of assassination, are the outcome of efforts to bridge the sharp differences between the Kremlin and other decision-makers in Moscow over the right of the Arabs to conduct armed resistance against Israel and the US – the Arabs’ special military operations, to use the Russian term. In the Moscow debate, national liberation on the battlefield, including pre-emption, is reserved to Russia in the Donbass.

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“In wars for national liberation and in civil wars, the terrorism label is one side’s propaganda against the other – this is the consensus of the Russian sources, unspoken and unpublished for the time being. Russian public policy has yet to resolve the contradiction between Russian support for Palestine’s national liberation and opposition to Hamas’s ‘terrorism’ – this can’t happen, the sources say, before the presidential election in March [2024], and the success of the Russian military offensive in the Ukraine by then too. ‘There’s nothing new here. Putin is following the old Soviet line on exercising ‘the greatest possible caution’ towards the ‘frightful collisions’ which Stalin’s famous speech on revolution and tactics spelled out a century ago.’ ”

Accordingly, it is unclear whether Russian policy aims to do anything to deter US and Israeli escalation of violence, and thus whether “restraint” means no more than it says — nothing. “The [Hamas] terrorist attack that took place on October 7, 2023, was outrageous. All sensible people condemn it,” Lavrov told Sky News Arabia last month, implying that he condemns Arabs for disagreeing with him.

“However,” Lavrov went on, “it is unacceptable to respond to a crime with another crime, especially through the prohibited method of collective punishment of civilians. We are against any escalation. Unfortunately, there are those seeking to heat it up to the maximum, in particular, to provoke the US Armed Forces’ interference in the region. This is totally obvious. Just recall the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh during the funeral ceremony for President Ibrahim Raisi [sic] in the capital of the Islamic Republic of Iran. I cannot imagine anything more cynical. I appreciate the fact that the Islamic Republic of Iran did not have a breakdown, as they say, or slide into full-scale response military actions. They counted that Iran would do something that would make the United States’ armed forces interfere in the situation. Perhaps the developments around Lebanon are similar. I believe that Hezbollah is behaving with restraint considering its capabilities. They want to provoke it with the same goal of making the United States’ interference in the war inevitable. I think that the Biden administration is aware of this danger. Obviously, we do not want a major war to break out. At this point, the main thing is to achieve a full ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and all Palestinian territories, promptly solve the humanitarian issues, resume aid supplies in the required volumes, and, obviously, commence substantial negotiations on the creation of a Palestinian state as the third necessary step. Without this, outbreaks of violence in the Middle East will continue.”

The conflation of the Russian and international legal doctrines on homicide, war crimes, genocide, and self-defence on display here leave only one interpretation of what “restraint” means in all cases of special military operations — except for the Russian one. Deterring the US and Israel from killing the Arabs at will was Soviet policy at the time of Qaddafi’s takeover of power from the US-backed Libyan King Idris as-Senoussi in 1969; the Soviet Mediterranean fleet protected Qaddafi and deterred an Anglo-American air and naval operation to restore Idris.

SOVIET NAVAL FLEET DEPLOYMENT BETWEEN CRETE AND LIBYA DETERRING US NAVAL AND AIRBORNE (EX-CYPRUS) ATTACKS ON QADDAFI, SEPTEMBER 1969

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Click on the book, page 603, for the enlarged map and analysis of what happened: https://www.amazon.com/Jackals-Wedding- ... er-Revolt/

Soviet policy was that force deters, and restraint will be the outcome. This was not Medvedev’s (and Putin’s) policy towards Qaddafi in February 2011 — the outcome was Qaddafi’s murder eight months later. On Friday last, Aisha Qaddafi heard from Russia’s leading Arabist, Deputy Foreign Minister Bogdanov, what Russian restraint means for Libya’s future — with and without deterring force.

In this context, read this newly published analysis of assassination as Israeli policy by Yevgeny Krutikov, a former GRU field intelligence officer in the Balkans who is a regular security analyst in Vzglyad. Krutikov is intending his analysis to be interpreted by the GRU and General Staff, as well as by the Kremlin and Foreign Ministry, in their argument over what is achieved for Russian state objectives in the Middle East from “restraint” in support of Israeli strategy. Krutikov’s loyalty to Putin was also displayed with his Telegram birthday salute.

The text has been translated verbatim; URL links, illustrations, and captions have been added for reference and reader clarification.

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Source: https://vz.ru/world/2024/10/18/1293100.html

October 18, 2024
Why are the assassinations of Hamas leaders not producing results for Israel
By Yevgeny Krutikov

Israel is destroying the leaders of the countries and organizations opposing it one by one. The latest such example was the assassination of Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar in the city of Rafah (Gaza Strip). How does the Israeli intelligence service (MOSSAD) and the army (IDF) manage to successfully find and destroy these people, and will Tel Aviv achieve victory over the Palestinians as a result?

Israel has historically used three methods to eliminate the leaders of its opponents. Classic, with the use of agent intelligence and with the use of targeted means: from the explosion of a telephone handset to poison – this is the handwriting of the Mossad.

The assassination attempt on the head of the Hamas politburo, Khaled Mashaal, in the Jordanian capital Amman in 1997 is noteworthy here. Israeli agents tracked him down and attacked him right on the street, pouring some poison into his ear. It looked extremely mysterious: in the middle of the day, a man is attacked and something is shoved into his ear. At the same time, Mashaal walked with his bodyguards who recaptured him from the attackers and pinned them down. Why this particular method of assassination was chosen, when it was much easier to shoot Mashaal, is unknown.

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Source: https://www.reuters.com/

It ended up being almost a disaster for Israel. It is still unclear what the Jordanian King Hussein threatened Tel Aviv with at that time, but Israel was not only forced to deliver the antidote to Amman, but also additionally release Sheikh Yassin and a dozen other prominent Palestinian prisoners.

But the Israeli army, the IDF, unlike intelligence, is not inclined to such experiments and uses high–tech and heavy weapons of destruction. The handwriting of the IDF: tracking the movements of enemy leaders using technical controls (intercepting telephone messages, messengers, Internet traffic), choosing the right moment and striking with the help of the Air Force, bombs or missiles.

The Shin Bet Internal Security Service is also involved in this, but its operational methods include infiltration into the ranks of the enemy or the recruitment of Arabs. This is necessary to select the location and time of the target’s destruction.

For example, it is not enough to know approximately the schedule of a target’s movements based on the analysis of his correspondence or telephone conversations. It is necessary that someone next to him physically confirms the intelligence. For this purpose, Israeli counterintelligence has been recruiting “mashpatim”, that is, decades-long sympathizers from among the Arabs. By the way, it was the identification and destruction of these Israeli informants that Sinwar was engaged in at the time as head of the Hamas security service, for which he received several life sentences.

Another form of agent infiltration: special squads of Jews or Bedouins mimicking Arabs (“mistaravim”). It’s all very difficult and requires special skills and training.

And finally, the third and last method: chance, luck, God’s providence. That’s what happened, it seems, to Yahya Sinwar. According to the incoming leaks to the Western press, the Israelis only knew approximately which tunnel Sinwar could be in, but no more.

The IDF squad spotted a group of six unidentified Palestinians on one of the streets of Rafah and opened fire on them. The Palestinians took refuge in a nearby house. The Israelis drove up a tank and mortars and leveled the house to the ground for a time. A reconnaissance quadcopter with a video camera was used to investigate the results. Then the Israelis realized that the man in the house waving a stick at the drone was Yahya Sinwar.

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“Israel’s killing of the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is the newest manifestation of that century-old premise, Israeli analysts said on Friday. It reflects Israel’s decades-old policy of killing enemies in order to exact revenge, undermine its foes or establish deterrence… It was also a way of proving to Israelis themselves that the central assumption of Zionism — that Jews would be safer in a Jewish state than in the diaspora — was still valid.”

Sinwar is the third Hamas leader in a row to be killed by Israelis. The tactics of eliminating the enemy’s top officials have been one of the foundations of Israel’s military intelligence behavior for decades. And, as you can see with the naked eye, it has not proven its effectiveness in a strategic sense.

The new leader of Hamas, Khaled Mashaal, has been very attentive to his safety since the assassination attempt in 1997. Moreover, Mashaal even tried to ban the names of Hamas leaders and leaders from being mentioned at all. This was attributed to the fact that in 2004, after the assassination of Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, then Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said: “The destruction of terrorist leaders will continue.”

But it was not possible to completely classify the leadership of the organization, since in many ways its authority was based on public activities in Gaza. In this sense, neither Hamas nor Hezbollah in Lebanon are conventional “underground fighters.”

In Tel Aviv, they proceed from the idea that movements opposing Israel and even entire countries are at a more primitive level of social development and therefore prone to top-down leadership. The next link in this logical chain: if you destroy the leaders, then everything will fall apart. However, since 1947, the confrontation between Palestinians and Israelis has only intensified, which means that this logic does not work.

People who are inclined to a Marxist view of the world believe that Arab movements and organizations are the product of a socio–economic catastrophe in which the Middle East has been living for hundreds of years. And if the poor are given food and money, the crisis will be resolved. This point of view is very popular in Europe, as well as among the Israeli left. It also implies the tactics of destroying Arab leaders. Only in Europe they are silent about this, but in Israel they speak openly.

In Israel, it is believed that the destruction of the leaders of the opposition is not only an effective military and political measure, but also a righteous act. There is a complex religious foundation behind this call for revenge, but periodically it faces the practical need to negotiate.

On occasion people came to power in Israel who partially recognized the need to discuss the future with the Arabs, but each time all these attempts came to naught. There have been precedents for negotiations with Yasser Arafat, Sheikh Yassin, [Mousa Abu] Marzouk, and many other Palestinian, Lebanese, and Jordanian leaders. Then, when the political and ideological vector changed, they were killed. And nothing has changed in the Middle East.

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Source: https://www.haaretz.com/

The left is wrong: the Arab movements are not built on the principle of leadership. A strong leader is always a good thing. But for decades, Arab movements have demonstrated the ability to regenerate along with the so-called social [mobility] elevator, although that is more complicated than the term is commonly understood in Europe. The Arab movements demonstrate an extreme degree of hatred towards Israel, which is not to be explained, neither by their “proletarian” origin, nor even by the peculiarities of religious thinking.

The right in Israel drew two conclusions from this conclusion. Firstly, nothing can be done with the Arabs — such organizations will pose a threat to the inhabitants of Israel and its security for centuries. Therefore, they just need to be destroyed. And as organizations, as structures on earth, and as people. Secondly, it is necessary to chop off the hydra’s head, not its limbs. Iran has been declared a hydra, which Israel has been trying for several years to provoke into a big war in which it will be possible to hide behind the Americans.

This “action plan” has many potentially unpleasant consequences. For example, no one has been conducting real negotiations on the release of hostages for a long time. The constant assassinations of Hamas leaders and other commanders simply close such a window of opportunity. And the IDF doesn’t seem to know any other military tactics at all, except carpet bombing.

Yes, the decrease in the military potential of Arab organizations opposing Israel is really happening. However, the main thing is not happening – their loss of moral, religious and political authority among the inhabitants of Palestine and other Arabs. Consequently, over time, the lost military potential will also be restored.


In this context, even if you kill several dozen Hamas leaders in a row, nothing will change strategically for Israel. But the specific ideological and religious attitudes prevailing in the right-wing part of Israeli society repeatedly push them to kill their opponents, and not to resume the negotiation process.
https://johnhelmer.net/russian-restrain ... more-90466

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US announces $10 million reward for information on Project Rybar

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US announces $10 million reward for information on Project Rybar

The US State Department, as part of the Rewards for Justice program, has announced a reward of up to $10 million for information that will help identify or locate individuals associated with the Rybar project, RBK reports, citing an official statement from the program.

According to the department, Rybar is a “Russian media organization that was previously financed by Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin and is involved in interfering in the US elections.” The State Department claims that Rybar operates propaganda accounts on social networks, such as #HOLDTHELINE and #STANDWTHTEXAS , with the aim of promoting the political interests of the Russian government in America. In addition, ahead of the 2024 US presidential election, Rybar allegedly created the TEXASvsUSA channel on the X platform (formerly Twitter) to exploit the issue of illegal migration across the Texas border.

In this regard, the US State Department has asked to announce a reward for information about the persons involved in this project, including its founder Mikhail Zvinchuk, who is the CEO of Rybar LLC and the creator of the Telegram channel of the same name. Valeria Zvinchuk, whom the department calls the creative director of Rybar, is also mentioned.

Earlier, the US promised $10 million for information about the financing of Hamas.


https://www.gazeta.ru/social/news/2024/ ... 3877.shtml - zinc

Free advertising of the project and recognition of merit.
Let me remind you that you can vote for Harris on the State Services portal.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9447394.html

Strategic partnership between Russia and the DPRK: mutual interests and priority tasks

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Strategic partnership between Russia and the DPRK: mutual interests and priority tasks

On September 3, the Eastern Economic Forum will open in Vladivostok. Traditionally, it is dedicated to the development of the economy of the Far East and the expansion of international cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region (APR). This year, the key event in this area for Moscow was the strengthening of relations with Pyongyang.

In February 2022, the DPRK authorities relaxed restrictions related to the coronavirus madness. This easing coincided with the beginning of the NWO. Then Pyongyang resumed a broad format of external contacts, and Moscow began to restore relations and ties with long-standing allies against the backdrop of a tightening confrontation with the Atlantic community.

These issues were discussed at a meeting between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov and DPRK Ambassador to Moscow Sin Hong-chol in V.2022. That same month, the heads of the LPR and DPR Foreign Ministries Vladislav Deinego and Natalya Nikonorova met with a representative of Pyongyang in Russia.

In VII.2022, the DPRK recognized the independence of the two republics. This was followed by a breakdown in relations between Pyongyang and the administration in Kiev. Since 1992, Ukraine has not had an embassy in the DPRK. The Republic, in turn, also did not have a diplomatic mission in Kiev, the functions of which were performed by the embassy in Moscow.

In VI.2022, negotiations were held via videoconference between the Russian Ministry for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic and the Ministry of Foreign Economic Affairs of the DPRK. Among other issues, the parties discussed the further implementation of a joint project to build a road border bridge across the Tumannaya River (an intergovernmental agreement on this was signed in VI.2024), as well as the resumption of cargo transportation through the port of Rajin.

In IX.2023, the first visit of the Chairman of State of the DPRK Kim Jong-un abroad since the coronavirus took place - to Russia, for a summit of the two countries. The highest-level meeting between the heads of state was held at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the closed administrative-territorial entity of Tsiolkovsky in the Amur Region. A return trip by Russian President Vladimir Putin was organized in VI.2024.

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Strategic partnership

19.VI.2024 During Putin's visit to Pyongyang, the parties signed the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the DPRK and Russia. In the preamble of the agreement, the countries outlined their common desire to protect international justice from hegemonic aspirations and attempts to impose a unipolar world order, as well as to establish a multipolar international system.

The substantive part of the agreement states that the parties:

▪️ strengthen joint coordination and interaction on international platforms, as well as tactical and strategic interaction

▪️ in the event of an immediate threat of armed aggression against one of the countries, the state, at the request of one of the parties, immediately engage bilateral channels for consultations in order to coordinate their positions and agree on possible practical measures to assist each other to help eliminate the threat that has arisen

▪️ if one of the parties is subjected to an armed attack by any state or several countries and thus finds itself in a state of war, the other party will immediately provide military and other assistance by all means at its disposal in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and in accordance with the laws of the DPRK and Russia

▪️ actively cooperate with each other in pursuing policies aimed at establishing a fair multipolar new world order

▪️ conduct consultations and cooperate with each other within the framework of international organizations, including the UN and its specialized agencies, on issues of global and regional development that may directly or indirectly pose a challenge to the common interests and security of both countries

▪️ create mechanisms for conducting joint activities to strengthen defense capabilities in the interests of preventing war and ensuring regional and international peace and security

▪️ make efforts to increase the volume of mutual trade, create favorable conditions for economic cooperation

▪️ provide assistance to special/free economic zones of the DPRK and Russia and organizations with their participation

▪️ develop exchanges and cooperation, and actively encourage joint research in the field of science and technology

▪️ support the development of interregional and cross-border cooperation in areas of mutual interest

▪️ oppose the use of unilateral coercive measures, including those of an extraterritorial nature, and consider their introduction to be illegal and contrary to the UN Charter and international law. The Parties shall coordinate efforts and interact to support multilateral initiatives aimed at eliminating the practice of applying such measures in international relations; guarantee the non-application of unilateral coercive measures aimed directly or indirectly at one of the Parties; refrain from joining unilateral coercive measures or supporting such measures of any third party, if such measures affect or are aimed directly or indirectly at one of the Parties; in the event that unilateral coercive measures are imposed on one of the Parties by any third party, the Parties shall make practical efforts to reduce risks, eliminate or minimize the direct and indirect impact of such measures on mutual economic ties; the parties also take steps to limit the dissemination of information that could be used by a third party to introduce and escalate such measures

▪️ coordinate actions and jointly promote initiatives within international organizations and other negotiating platforms

▪️ promote broad cooperation in the media sphere in order to <…> strengthen coordination in countering disinformation and aggressive information campaigns

▪️ actively cooperate to conclude and subsequently implement industry agreements.

The highlighted agreements focus on interaction at international venues, cooperation in the field of defense and security, development of economic relations and counteraction to Western sanctions instruments. Accordingly, Moscow and Pyongyang face common priorities united by mutual interests.

UN Sanctions

Since 2006, UN sanctions have been successively imposed on the DPRK following the country's first successful test of a nuclear weapon. These are Security Council resolutions 1695 and 1718 of 2006, 1874 of 2009, 1928 of 2010, 1985 of 2011, 2050 of 2012, 2087 and 2094 of 2013, 2141 of 2014, 2207 of 2015, 2270 and 2321 of 2016, 2356, 2371, 2375 and 2397 of 2017, 2407 of 2018, 2464 of 2019, 2515 of 2020, 2569 of 2021, 2627 of 2022, 2680 of 2023.

Each time, they were initiated by The United States and its satellites, South Korea and Japan, observe restrictions at the national level and seek to put pressure on Pyongyang at the international level. The sanctions are aimed at reducing the defense capability, economic stability and undermining the sovereignty of the DPRK.

In particular, they call for the repatriation of DPRK citizens who earn income outside their country. Such revenue serves as one of the sources of foreign currency for Pyongyang. The UN limits the supply of many goods produced in the DPRK, including coal, as well as the transfer of technology to Pyongyang.

The DPRK is interested in Russian support in the UN Security Council during the tests of its missile weapons. Pyongyang, in turn, has extensive experience in circumventing sanctions and building new import and export routes. The recommendatory nature of UN Security Council resolutions in most cases did not have any serious impact on such ties of Pyongyang.

The work of Russian diplomacy to soften the restrictions of the UN and other international organizations regarding the DPRK will create precedents in the practice of the West using sanctions pressure against its opponents. A direct result of such efforts by Moscow is the prevention of further UN resolutions against Pyongyang after the missile tests.

A success was the termination of the work of the biased group of experts of the UN Security Council Committee 1718 on sanctions against the DPRK - Russia used its veto power.

Economy and technology

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Infrastructure projects at the mouth of the Tumannaya River and the port of Rajin

The DPRK is looking for new markets for its coal. And the Korean port of Rajin opens an outlet for Russian coal to the markets of Asia via the Trans-Siberian Railway. In 2008, a joint venture (JV) RasonKonTrans was created to export this raw material from Russia, which is the largest coal terminal in the Asia-Pacific region.

Moscow is interested in exempting the JV from local duties until coal exports return to the minimum level of 1 million tons per year, as it was before the coronavirus madness. This is one of the possible ways to export Donbass coal and the entry of this DPR and LPR industry into the Asian market.

RasonKonTrans is exempted from the sanctions list of UN Security Council Resolution 2375 of 2017. Trade in North Korean coal via Rajin is under sanctions by the organization. However, under the current circumstances and in the presence of a strategic partnership agreement between the countries, this situation may change.

Transit along the Tumannaya River to the Sea of ​​Japan is of strategic importance for China. It gives Beijing access to the Pacific Ocean. Access to it through the historical region of Manchuria is an alternative to access to the ocean through the island of Taiwan. However, this alternative is for trade, not for restoring the territorial integrity of the PRC.

In the future, China may be interested not only in civilian shipping, but also in the passage of military ships along the Tumannaya to the Sea of ​​Japan. The issue of reconstructing and building river-sea infrastructure in the lower reaches of the river may also arise to make it more convenient for shipping. To do this, Beijing must obtain the consent of Russia and the DPRK, which control this section of the waterway and the mouth of the Tumannaya.

By the way, in 2023, the PRC changed its position regarding the ownership of the southern group of islands of the Kuril archipelago. Since 1964, China recognized them as Japanese, but now it maintains neutrality on this issue.

Korean workers may take part in the restoration of the infrastructure of Novorossiya affected by military actions, where large-scale construction work is underway to reconstruct the LPR, DPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.

In addition, the UN does not recognize Russian sovereignty over these federal subjects. Since April 2020, their restoration has been supervised by Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Marat Khusnullin.

Labor resources from the DPRK may be useful for the implementation of projects of the state concern Donbass Development Corporation, the Southern Mining and Metallurgical Complex company and the federal Ministry of Transport.

In addition, Korean workers can replace migrant workers from Central Asia in the construction industry. At least at the regional level, this could be up to 500 thousand builders from the DPRK. As for security considerations, citizens of this country are not subject to recruitment by international terrorist organizations.

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Although the same China uses certain levers of pressure on the DPRK related to Korean workers. Earlier this year, they staged a series of protests against Pyongyang in China's Jilin Province, in counties bordering the DPRK. Workers from more than 30 factories and companies chanted slogans against wage arrears.

The People's Police of the PRC did not interfere with these protests. Moreover, along with the hostile media of South Korea and the United States, they were covered by the press of China's Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. The protests by workers from the DPRK took place against the backdrop of reports of a possible visit to Pyongyang by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Such protests in China with information leaks abroad do not take place without the knowledge of the PRC Ministry of State Security. The expression of workers' discontent in a standard situation could have led to their repatriation back to their homeland, but this did not happen.

According to various estimates, there are about 100,000 workers from the DPRK abroad. They are mainly involved in manufacturing and construction in northeastern China and work for enterprises owned by Pyongyang. It is not in his interests to close these facilities in China, even as a preventive or retaliatory measure.

Exchanges, cooperation and joint research in science and technology require an increase in the number of students from the DPRK in specialized Russian universities. This can be done by allocating more quota places for Korean students. Such a measure can solve the issue of Pyongyang mastering the latest technologies and developing its scientific schools in advanced industries.

Military and military-technical cooperation

The DPRK is interested in obtaining scientific and technical information about NATO weapons and military equipment. Data on such combat assets can be obtained both through the exchange of intelligence information and by collecting it in the area of ​​a special operation. This applies, for example, to captured Western equipment.

Pyongyang needs such data both to develop its own weapons and to analyze the combat capabilities of the alliance and its satellites using Western models of military equipment in the theater of military operations in the Asia-Pacific region. If we talk about the broader interest of the DPRK, the priority of its scientific and technical intelligence in hostile and neutral countries is to obtain dual-use technologies and intelligence data for the further development of Pyongyang's space industry.

The DPRK's defense industry is capable of meeting some of the needs of the Russian Armed Forces for various types of ammunition. Given NATO's desire to continue confrontation with Russia after the Central Military District, Moscow will need reliable foreign suppliers of such products in the future.

Therefore, cooperation in the development and improvement of the production base of the DPRK defense industry with Russian technological support is of interest to both countries. It should increase the volume of ammunition production.

A promising step that will significantly strengthen military cooperation between the DPRK and Russia could be service and combat missions to the special operation zone of the Special Operations Forces of the Korean People's Army (KPA SDF).

This branch of the KPA was created in 2016. According to various estimates, the number of DPRK SDF is from 200 to 300 thousand servicemen.

For Pyongyang, this is an opportunity to test the combat readiness of its SDF in real conditions against NATO proxy forces, represented in the SDF by Ukrainian armed formations, as well as mercenaries from the countries of the alliance and its satellites. In the event of an escalation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, the SDF, as one of the key components of the KPA, will have experience in performing tasks against troops trained according to the modern Western model.

The DPRK missile tests change the situation in Eurasia for NATO. The alliance is forced to disperse its resources and attention. In addition, military cooperation, along with the strategic partnership agreement, strengthens Russia's position on the Korean Peninsula, allowing it to use its influence in the diplomatic dimension. Including in the settlement of relations between the DPRK and South Korea.

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Wed Oct 23, 2024 3:20 pm

BRICS Plans ‘Multi-Currency System’ to Challenge US Dollar Dominance: Understanding Russia’s Proposal
Posted by Internationalist 360° on October 21, 2024
Ben Norton

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The BRICS Cross-Border Payment Initiative (BCBPI) will use national currencies, instead of the US dollar. Russia’s finance ministry and central bank released a report detailing plans to transform the international monetary and financial system.

The Global South-oriented organization BRICS has released plans to transform the international monetary and financial system and challenge the dominance of the US dollar.

As the chair of BRICS for 2024, Russia proposed the creation of a BRICS Cross-Border Payment Initiative (BCBPI), in which members of the organization will use their national currencies to trade.

BRICS will likewise establish an alternative messaging infrastructure to circumvent the SWIFT system of interbank communication, which is overseen by the United States and subject to Western unilateral sanctions.

This “multi-currency system” will also include new mechanisms not only to de-dollarize trade, but also to encourage investment in BRICS members and other emerging markets and developing economies, including a BRICS Clear platform, a “new system of securities accounting and settlement”, and financial instruments denominated in national currencies.



BRICS will experiment with distributed ledger technology (DLT, such as blockchain), promoting the use of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) so nations can settle trade imbalances directly, without the need for the SWIFT system and correspondent banks located in third countries.

There are also plans for the establishment of a BRICS Grain Exchange and associated pricing agency, with centers for trade in commodities like grain, oil, natural gas, and gold, which can likewise be used to settle trade imbalances.

These proposals were outlined in the report “Improvement of the International Monetary and Financial System”, which was co-authored by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Bank of Russia, and the consulting firm Yakov and Partners. (A PDF of the document can be found at the official website of the Russian finance ministry, although if that link does not work, it is also available at the page of Yakov and Partners.)

This historic report was published on the eve of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia from October 22-24.

BRICS was originally founded as a loose grouping of emerging markets and developing economies, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

The organization has since expanded, and in the 2023 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, six more countries were invited to join: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Argentina. (Argentina’s left-leaning government had initially accepted the offer, but when right-wing pro-US leader Javier Milei came to power in December 2023, he attacked BRICS and refused to join.)

The chair of BRICS rotates on an annual basis. South Africa held the chairmanship in 2023, and was followed by Russia in 2024.

In February 2024, the finance ministers and central bank governors of BRICS met in Sao Paulo, Brazil. There, the Russian representatives said they would prepare a report “for BRICS countries’ leaders with a list of initiatives and recommendations on ways to improve the international monetary and financial system”.

Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov explained the motivation:

The current system is based on existing Western financial infrastructure and the use of reserve currencies. It is severely flawed and is increasingly used as a tool of political and economic pressure. Another reason for a reform of the international monetary and financial system is the geo-economic fragmentation that became a result of the abuse of trade and financial restrictions.

In this February meeting, BRICS announced plans to create a “multilateral digital settlement and payment platform” it called BRICS Bridge, which “would help to bridge the gap between the financial markets of BRICS member countries and increase mutual trade”.

These efforts culminated in the comprehensive research released in October.

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US-led West’s monopoly over international monetary and financial system

The Russian BRICS chairmanship report argued that the international monetary and financial system (IMFS) is not only unjust but also inefficient, as it is a monopoly that suffers “from excessive reliance on a single currency and centralized financial infrastructure”.

The document noted that the “current IMFS is primarily serving interests of AEs” (advanced economies) – that is, largely the wealthy countries of the West.

Moreover, the “existing IMFS has been characterized by frequent crises, persistent trade and current account imbalances, elevated and rising public debt levels, and destabilizing volatility of capital flows and exchange rates”, it added.

The monopoly that the United States exercises over the IMFS ensures global demand for dollars, and has thus allowed it to run gargantuan current account deficits for decades, while weaponizing its currency to serve its geopolitical interests.

The US government is waging economic war around the world, and has imposed unilateral sanctions on one-third of all countries, including 60% of low-income nations.

Washington and its allies in Europe have likewise seized hundreds of billions of dollars of assets from their adversaries. The BRICS report included a list of countries whose reserves have been frozen by the West, including Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, and the DPRK (North Korea).

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BRICS alternatives to World Bank and IMF: New Development Bank (NDB) and Contingent Reserve Agreement (CRA)

To try to transform the international monetary and financial system, the Russian report proposed the creation of several new institutions, including the BRICS Cross-Border Payment Initiative (BCBPI), BRICS Clear platform, and BRICS Grain Exchange.

It also called to strengthen the organizations that BRICS has already established as alternatives to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF): the New Development Bank (NDB, formerly known as the BRICS Bank) and the Contingent Reserve Agreement (CRA).

The NDB was founded to provide financing for developing countries, especially for infrastructure projects. The NDB has pledged to offer more loans in the national currencies of BRICS members, seeking to gradually de-dollarize.

The Russian BRICS chairmanship called for “substantially increasing the NDB’s financing capacity, along with a simultaneous review of its principles and assessment criteria for the selection of projects with the aim of expanding the project pipeline”.

There was less optimism about the CRA, however. This institution was conceived of as an alternative source of liquidity for countries encountering balance of payments problems. Yet since its creation, the CRA has not been very active, and the Russian proposal explains that it suffers from dependency on both the US dollar and the SWIFT interbank messaging system.

Another serious concern with the CRA is that its operations are overseen by the IMF. The report noted that “the treaty establishing the CRA limits the amount of resources that can be released without a parallel arrangement with the IMF to 30% of the maximum”, and that any deals must company “with the IMF’s obligation on surveillance and disclosure”.

“This has the potential to result in a situation whereby a recipient, due to its current standing with IMF is deprived of a financial lifeline even if BRICS CRA members are in consensus regarding the provision of aid”, the document added.

The IMF and World Bank are deeply flawed in that the bodies are thoroughly dominated by the Western powers. The United States is the only country that has veto power in both institutions.

When the IMF and World Bank were created at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, which also established the dollar as the global reserve currency, the Western powers were given significant control over the institutions. (At the time of the conference, much of the world was still formally colonized by the European empires.)

To ensure Western dominance, there is an unspoken agreement that every president of the World Bank is a US citizen and every managing director of the IMF is European. To date, this pattern has continued, even while the global economy has changed very significantly.

As of 2023, the original five BRICS countries make up 32% of global GDP (measured at purchasing power parity, PPP), but have only 13.54% of voting shares in the IMF.

On the other hand, the G7 nations hold 41.27% of the voting shares in the IMF, despite the fact that they comprise just 30% of global GDP (PPP).

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The BRICS report highlighted these serious concerns, stating (emphasis added):

The governance aspect of the IMF has also been called into question – the system provides significant advantage to high-income economies, which hold key stakes in the IMF. The interests of 35 advanced economies are represented by 12 directors, while the remaining 155 countries are either represented by 12 directors from developing countries, or are included in constituencies with advanced economies, where their opinions and interests considered secondary. Directors from high-income countries have 63% of the votes at the IMF, although at purchasing power parity these economies now account for only 46% of global GDP.

Given these structural imbalances, the document called for strengthening the NDB and reforming the CRA, so they can serve as true alternatives.

Will BRICS create a reserve currency to challenge the dollar? The SDR is a start

The Russian BRICS chairmanship report revealed that, in the short to the medium term, the bloc will try to de-dollarize by promoting trade and investment in national currencies.

There has been much debate, however, as to whether or not BRICS will ultimately create an international unit of account to challenge the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency.

When the modern financial system was created at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, renowned economist John Maynard Keynes had proposed an international unit of account he called the Bancor.

As the IMF explains in its official glossary (emphasis added):

In his original proposal for a post-war international monetary system, British economist John Maynard Keynes envisaged a global bank (the International Clearing Union or ICU), which would issue its own currency (bancor), based on the value of 30 representative commodities including gold, exchangeable against national currencies at fixed rates. All trade accounts would be measured in bancor, while each country would maintain a bancor account vis-à-vis the ICU (expected to be balanced within a small margin), and also have an overdraft allowance vis-à-vis the ICU.

When countries experienced large trade deficits (more than half of the bancor overdraft allowance), they would pay interest on their accounts, undergo economic adjustments (possibly also capital controls) and devalue their currencies. Conversely, countries with large trade surpluses would also be subject to a similar charge and required to appreciate their exchange rates.

Keynes expected that this mechanism would bring in a smooth symmetry of adjustments across countries and avoid global imbalances.


Keynes’ proposal was ultimately rejected; instead the US representative at Bretton Woods, economist Harry Dexter White, won out. The dollar was made the global reserve currency, at that time set at the fixed exchange rate of $35 per ounce of gold.

However, the drive in the 21st century by BRICS and much of the Global South to de-dollarize has led to a resurgence of interest in proposals like those made by Keynes.

The Russian BRICS chairmanship report did not explicitly call for the creation of such an international currency, but it did express interest in the concept.

The closest thing that exists, the document noted, is the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) issued by the IMF.

As an “alternative reserve asset and even the new global currency”, the SDR does indeed have potential, the report argued, but its use “remains limited”.

“Created as a supplementary international reserve asset, the SDR could have a bigger role to play”, the authors wrote, insisting that “efforts must be made regarding the utilization of SDRs in the real economy”.

They added, “With features and potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency, the SDR might be a solution to the long-standing Triffin Dilemma. That is the issuing countries of reserve currencies cannot maintain the value of the reserve currencies while providing liquidity to the world”.

Nevertheless, the SDR has a problem. Its value is based on a basket of five major currencies: the US dollar, euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and Chinese renminbi. Therefore, even if a sovereign country’s reserves in SDRs could not be frozen or seized, like the West has done to adversaries holding Treasury securities, taking loans denominated in SDR still poses an exchange-rate risk.

When the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank rapidly hike interest rates, like they did in 2022 and 2023, this could lead to significant downward pressure on the currencies of developing economies and thus make it more difficult to pay off SDR-denominated debt – unless their central banks also raise interest rates, which could cause a recession.

As the Russian BRICS chairmanship report pointed out, “due to the interest-bearing nature of the SDRs (when drawn), the cost associated with borrowing in SDR is impacted by the currently high-interest environment of the countries that make up the basket of currencies comprising the SDR, which means further limitation to the practical use of SDR”.

Despite this concern, the authors argued that an international unit of account like the SDR could in other ways relieve exogenous pressure on the currencies of developing economies:

The SDR can help to eliminate the inherent risks of credit based sovereign currency and make it possible to manage global liquidity. And when a country’s currency is no longer used as the yardstick for global trade and as the benchmark for other currencies, the exchange rate policy of the country would be far more effective in adjusting economic imbalances. This will significantly reduce the risks of a future crisis and enhance crisis management capability.

The report indicated that it is not just Moscow that supports an increased role for the SDR, but also Beijing.

“China has begun reporting international reserves, balance of payments, and international investment position data in SDRs and renminbi. It has also issued SDR-denominated bonds”, the document noted. “However, market participants (as opposed to sovereign) have not started using the SDRs as a unit of account, and market infrastructure for the SDRs remains elusive”.

In short, the Russian BRICS chairmanship proposal expressed qualified support for the idea of an international unit of account like the SDR and called to “promote the use of the SDR in international trade, commodity pricing, cross-border investment, and book-keeping”; to “create more financial assets denominated in the SDR to serve as an investment vehicle”; and to “reassess and strengthen the role of SDRs as international reserve asset, provided that measures aimed at increasing their utilization in the real economy and means of its exchange are successful”.

However, the fact that the SDRs are administered by the IMF means that they are unlikely in the short term to be a serious alternative, unless the IMF itself is fundamentally transformed.

De-dollarization of investment and reserves

In discussion of de-dollarization, it is important to distinguish de-dollarization of cross-border payments on one hand and de-dollarization of savings and investment on the other.

In the international financial system, trade in goods only comprises a small percentage of total transactions; the vast majority involve capital flows into and out of bonds, stocks, and the foreign exchange market, along with hundreds of trillions of dollars of outstanding derivatives (financial bets) – a staggering $715 trillion as of June 2023.

In contrast, total global merchandise trade in 2023 was $23.8 trillion according to the World Trade Organization. UNCTAD calculated that world trade in goods in 2022 was roughly $25 trillion, and global trade in services was $6.5 trillion.

In other words, there is an order of magnitude between world trade and global financial transactions. Given this enormous disparity, it is easier to de-dollarize international trade in goods than it is to de-dollarize savings and investment.

That said, the Russian BRICS chairmanship report proposed ideas of how to do both.

In addition to advocating the establishment of a de-centralized BRICS Clear platform, the document called for the “development of an investment hub on the continent of a platform member country”, with “new forms of debt issuance in place of the euro-denominated bonds – potentially denominated in national currencies of the participating countries”.

BRICS should create “an alternative to ANNA (Association of National Numbering Agencies)” that “will allow assigning and maintaining international ISIN, CFI and FISN codes for financial instruments denominated in the national currencies of the BRICS member states”, the authors wrote.

To encourage BRICS members to de-dollarize their reserves, they must make “other countries’ currencies (or a basket of such currencies) more attractive as a store of value”, the report stressed. This can be done by establishing liquidity-provision mechanisms and promoting the “proliferation of fixed income instruments denominated in local currencies to serve as an investment vehicle”.

The Russian BRICS chairmanship similarly proposed the creation of a BRICS Digital Investment Asset (DIA), which it said “will be backed by assets committed by the BRICS constituents”.

Given exchange rate risks in many emerging markets and developing economies, however, in addition to the massive momentum that incentivizes central banks and other investors to hold assets denominated in dominant currencies, the process of de-dollarizing reserves and other savings will be slow and difficult.

For decades, US Treasury securities have been the go-to global reserve asset. The question of what assets should be used to replace them is not easy to solve.

In the short term, the central banks of BRICS members have been investing heavily in gold. With such growing global demand, the commodity’s price has already soared, and it is expected to continue to rise significantly.

The report emphasized, however, that the world economy has changed a lot in recent decades, while the international monetary and financial system has not caught up.

As of 2023, emerging markets made up 50.1% of global GDP, as well as 66% of global GDP growth in the previous 10 years (when measured at purchasing power parity, PPP).

The five original BRICS members comprised 32% of world GDP (PPP) in 2024. This is larger than the global GDP share of the G7.

These changes are in part reflected in the shift in international trade flows. In 1995, just 10% of global goods trade consisted of trade among emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs); as of 2022, that figure had increased to 26%; and the report estimated it will reach 32% by 2032.

However, the significant changes in the global economy are not evident in international investment flows, which still disproportionately benefit rich countries.

As of 2022, just 11% of global investment flows from EMDEs to other EMDEs, and this figure has barely increased from 8% in 2010. The vast majority of global investment still flows from advanced economies to other advanced economies: 63% in 2022. This was slightly down from 72% in 2010, but the decline is small when one considers that EMDEs made up a staggering 66% of global growth in that same time period.

What this shows is that EMDEs have not significantly benefited from foreign investment, even though these are the fasting growing economies on Earth.

As the Russian BRICS chairmanship report put it, the “profits generated from growing trade are invested abroad into more liquid and accessible markets rather than benefiting domestic economies”.

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The need for a New International Economic Order

The structure of the modern international monetary and financial system serves the interests of the wealthy Global North countries, which colonized the world, at the expense of most of the low-income countries of the Global South, which were colonized.

Economists at the World Inequality Lab, Gastón Nievas and Alice Sodano, came to such a conclusion in a research paper published in April 2024. They wrote (emphasis added):

We find that the excess yield – i.e. the gap between returns on foreign assets and returns on foreign liabilities – has increased significantly for the top 20% richest countries (population weighted) since 2000. In effect, the exorbitant privilege of the US that was observed in previous decades has grown in size and scope and has become a rich world privilege.

The richest countries have become the bankers of the world, attracting excess savings by providing low-yield safe assets and investing these inflows in more profitable ventures. Such a privilege is translated in net income transfers from the poorest to the richest equivalent to 1% of the GDP of top 20% countries (and 2% of GDP for top 10% countries), alleviating the current account balance of the latter while deteriorating that of the bottom 80% by about 2- 3% of their GDP.

We show that rich countries accumulate positive capital gains, which improves their international investment position (IIP), and invest in relative less risky assets with respect to the world, refuting prior beliefs of them earning a return premia to compensate for potential loses and risk undertaken.

Our results seem to be explained by the fact that richer countries are issuers of international reserve currencies and are able to access cheaper financing (both for the public and private sector).


They summarized their findings in one sentence: “US privilege has become a Rich world privilege, financed by the BRICS”.

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This drain of wealth from Global South to North is even clearer when the countries are separated into national income per capita quintiles.

Rich countries in the top 20% quintile receive more than 1% of GDP worth of net foreign capital income, whereas 2-3% of GDP is drained out of the rest of the world.

This drain of wealth has gotten worse since the rise of neoliberalism in the 1970s, and especially since the waves of financialization and deregulation in the 1990s.

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The World Inequality Lab economists, Nievas and Sodano, explained:

In effect, the central position of rich countries in the international monetary and financial system allows them to function as intermediaries, akin to bankers of the world. This role further reinforces their privilege, as they leverage their advantageous position to attract excess savings and channel it towards productive investments. This cycle perpetuates their dominance and strengthens their position as key players in the global economic landscape.

They concluded their research paper writing (emphasis added):

We have argued that the rich privilege comes from an institutional design, contrary to the belief of being a market outcome, and that it entails huge burdens for poor countries. The bottom 80% are forced to transfer around 2-3% of their GDP each year, amounts that could be spent in developmental policies at home.

Efforts must be directed towards redesigning the current monetary and financial system to promote a more egalitarian regime. While the system has contributed to globalization, trade, financialization, and economic growth, it has failed to address complex challenges such as climate change, technological innovation, rising inequality, long-term demographic changes, and escalating geopolitical conflicts in a multiplex world.

The initial promise made after World War II to establish a neutral international monetary and financial system remains unfulfilled. We argue that the United States has not earned its privileged position of the US dollar, but this privilege was inherited from a time when it was imposed during the early years of the Bretton Woods system. Although it is true that dollar reserves have been accumulated voluntarily by the rest of the world, the initial role of the dollar as a stable global currency has allowed the US to become the currency hegemon and to capture an exorbitant privilege while tilting the international balance of power in its favor. So far, its hegemony has only been partially contested by other -rich- currency provider countries.


While the Russian BRICS chairmanship proposal will not solve all of these structural problems, it is a step in the right direction.

The BRICS report itself concluded with a cautious tone. “The extent to which the current system has deviated from the proposed model means that the change will take time and will require collective effort across the countries”, the authors wrote, emphasizing that “practical implementation of the aforementioned initiatives will take a phased approach”.

However, the document added, “The important thing is that the process has already begun – alternative payment systems and financial messaging mechanisms are already here, the use of national currencies for bilateral settlement is growing and new ways of transacting, including digital assets, are emerging”.

The BRICS proposal to transform the international monetary and financial system is far from a panacea, but it could help address some of these structural inequalities.

In this sense, the BRICS plan could be seen in the same vein as the call for a New International Economic Order (NIEO).

The Group of 77 (G77), which now has 134 members from across the developing world, has reiterated its demand for a NIEO virtually every year since it was first issued in 1974.

The G77+China held a summit in Cuba in January 2024, in which participants denounced “the major challenges generated by the current unfair international economic order for developing countries”. That same month, Cuba, as president of the G77, hosted the Havana Congress on the New International Economic Order.

All BRICS members except for Russia are part of the G77, and Moscow has long supported the call for the NIEO.

It is therefore deeply appropriate and symbolic that BRICS is discussing plans to transform the international monetary and financial system on the 50th anniversary of the NIEO.

As Victor Hugo said, “Nothing else in the world … is so powerful as an idea whose time has come”.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/10/ ... -proposal/

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Meeting with journalists from BRICS countries (Putin – Excerpt)
October 22, 2024 natyliesb Leave a comment
Kremlin, 10/18/24

Dmitry Kiselev: Mr President, you have mentioned the Ukrainian crisis. Just yesterday, while addressing the EU summit in Brussels, the ‘expired president’ Vladimir Zelensky said that the sole alternative to Ukraine joining NATO would be acquiring nuclear weapons. Simultaneously, the Bild newspaper published an interview with some anonymous Ukrainian tech-savvy, who claimed that Ukraine only needs a few weeks to build its own nuclear weapons and then make a strike at Russian troops.

What does it all mean?

Vladimir Putin: This is yet another act of provocation. In the modern world, creating nuclear weapons is not a difficult task. I do not know whether Ukraine is capable of doing this now though. It is not easy for Ukraine today, but generally there are no big difficulties in this regard, with everyone knowing how it is done.

This is a dangerous act of provocation, because, obviously, any step in this direction will meet an adequate response. This is the second point.

And third, most importantly, the current Ukrainian leadership claimed that Ukraine should have nuclear weapons. As I have mentioned on many occasions, they had stated that even before the crisis entered its hot stage; although it was a soft statement, it was made anyway. And such a threat will elicit a corresponding response from Russia.

I can say straight away: under no circumstances will Russia allow this to happen.

Dmitry Kiselev: But could it happen that, say, the British secretly provide these nuclear weapons to Ukraine and then claim that it was Ukraine that built them?

Vladimir Putin: Let’s avoid making any hypothetical assumptions and wild guesses about the British or whoever secretly supplying weapons. Such efforts cannot be hidden; they require proper resources and actions. It cannot be done covertly just as you cannot hide a cat in a bag. And we are capable of tracking any steps in this direction….

Nadim Koteich (retranslated): Mr President,

As someone who has a thorough understanding of military strategies, do you see any surprises or perhaps feel any disappointment in the Russian army’s performance in this war that has been going on for a long time, longer than you expected?

And the second question: could you determine when you will achieve victory in Ukraine?

Vladimir Putin: You know, setting any deadlines is a very complicated and even counterproductive action.

We have just spoken about the possibility of peace talks. We are all for it. I described how it could be implemented. If this is a totally earnest stance that both sides adhere to, then the sooner the better.

Regarding the army: you know, the character of warfare is ever-evolving in today’s world due to technological progress. It is rather difficult today to give a totally accurate assessment of tomorrow’s events.

Moreover, just recently, people were saying that the today’s warfare was a confrontation of technologies. Today, I have already heard our participants in combat operations saying that the today’s warfare is a “war of mathematicians.”

Here is a specific example: electronic warfare means are used to intercept [the enemy’s] means of destruction and suppress them. The other side makes certain assessments and makes changes to the strike weapons software. Within a week, ten days, three weeks, the other side increases its efforts and makes adjustments to the software in its electronic suppression means. The process continues endlessly. Of course, it is totally evident that the Ukrainian army is unable to do it, neither can they use high-precision and long-range weapons as they simply do not have them. It is evident that this is being done by NATO, its member countries, and military specialists.

Do you see the difference? NATO is fighting us, but they are fighting this proxy war using Ukrainian soldiers. Ukraine does not spare its soldiers in the interests of third states. But it is NATO that uses high-tech weapons, not Ukraine, while the Russian army fights by itself, creating its own military products and developing its own software, which makes an immense difference. I have noticed that the Russian army is definitely becoming one of the most high-tech and efficient ones, especially recently. When will NATO get weary of fighting us? Well, ask them. We are ready to continue this fight – and we will be victorious….

Dmitry Kiselev: Mr President, the sentiment in the West regarding Ukraine has changed. Earlier there were talks about Ukraine’s inevitable victory and settling everything on the battlefield, but now there are active speculations about ceding territories in exchange for the remaining part of Ukraine joining NATO. How do you like this idea?

Vladimir Putin: I do not understand when you talk about ceding territories, because those territories which our soldiers are fighting for on the battlefield, these are our territories. These are the Lugansk People’s Republic, the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. This is the first thing.

Second. Without any doubt, apart from this, we need to resolve the issue of ensuring long-term interests of Russia in the security sphere. If we are talking about some specific peace processes, then these should not be the processes connected with a truce for a week or two or for a year what would allow NATO countries to re-arm and stockpile new ammunition. We need conditions for a long-term, stable and lasting peace which would ensure equal security for all participants in this difficult process. This is what we should aspire for.

And if someone spoke at some point about the necessity to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, ensure victory over Russia on the battlefield, they already saw for themselves that this is impossible and unrealistic, and changed their point of view. Well, they were right to do so, I commend them for that….

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/mee ... n-excerpt/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Thu Oct 24, 2024 3:40 pm

Lukashenko runs for president
October 23, 23:07

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Batka Lukashenko announced that he will run for president again in 2025.
Thus, if (aha-ha, Tikhanovskaya, stop it) he becomes president, he is guaranteed to surpass Stalin in terms of his term of office.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9456216.html

Russians call him 'The Old Man'. Hey, he's my age!

Russia overtakes Japan in purchasing power parity
October 23, 21:12

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Russia's GDP this year is 3.55% of the world's purchasing power parity, which allows the country to overtake Japan with 3.38% and take fourth place in the world in purchasing power parity (PPP). This follows from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report on GDP dynamics. The top three in this indicator are China, the United States, and India. Earlier, the IMF raised its forecast for Russian GDP growth this year to 3.6%.

It may be recalled that in 2022, the West was betting on the collapse of the Russian economy and internal upheavals. But the stability of the Russian economy turned out to be many times higher than expected in the West, which allowed the Russian Federation not only to avoid economic degradation, but also to ensure good growth rates, which allowed it to overtake Germany (thanks to Scholz, who chose economic suicide), and now Japan during the war.

Thus, even Western structures such as the IMF and the World Bank melancholically confirm the failure of the economic blitzkrieg against Russia.

P.S. Before the war, the Russian Federation occupied 6th place, lagging behind Germany.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9456097.html

And as we've read elsewhere meats and produce are cheaper too.

Google Translator

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The Great Game of Logistics
Posted on October 23, 2024 by Conor Gallagher

I’ve covered the Zangezur Corridor in southern Armenia with some regularity here. It’s a short 42-kilometer strip of land link in a trade and energy route that stretches the length of Eurasia, and there’s a reason it’s so hotly contested not just among regional actors like Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran, but also world powers like China, India, Russia, and the US.

The latter’s involvement can be viewed as an effort to control the flow of resources of the South Caucasus and Central Asia to Europe bypassing Russia and Iran and excluding Beijing. It would help cut off Russia’s access to the Middle East as well as one of the potential routes of China’s Middle Corridor.

That small piece of land is representative of a much larger geo-economic competition underway over control of infrastructure and the $9 trillion logistics industry, or as Michael Hudson argues, today’s New Cold War is a battle between finance capitalism (the Collective West) who want to privatize and financialize and the industrial capitalism of the likes of China.

The logistics great game also plays out in the mostly failed efforts to isolate Russia. The US has found success getting Europe to partially cut itself off from Russia, and sanctions have forced Moscow to largely overhaul its logistics for the country’s foreign trade, a mission at which it has largely been successful, but for the foreseeable future international transport corridors Russia relies on or is attempting to develop will occupy a central place in the minds of US neocons who look to create choke points as part of the New Cold War. One of those happens to be Zangezur, where at least for now the US finds success by burrowing its way into Armenia.

In other ways, this effort to isolate Russia is backfiring on Washington as it pushes Russia and China closer together joining them in the mission to wall off Eurasia from Western destabilization campaigns. It has forced Russia to pour as much resources as it can muster into development of its Far East regions. It drives Russia and India closer together, as well as Russia and ASEAN countries.

I’ve lost count of the number of trade corridor plans across Eurasia, but I’d like to do a 30,000-foot view here, and maybe dive more into specific cases in future posts. I’ll start with a look at the US-backed India-Middle East-EU Economic Corridor (IMEEC) and a few of its competitors supported by Russia and Iran and then turn to a brief look at one component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative that will likely be in the news more coming up soon.

IMEEC

The US is on its umpteenth plan to rival China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The India-Middle East-EU Economic Corridor (IMEEC) that was launched with fanfare at the G20 hosted by India in September 2023 is the latest iteration. Not even a month later, it went up in flames with the Middle East — maybe.

The initiative, which involves countries like France, Germany, India, Israel, Italy, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US, hinged on normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. That has been put on hold indefinitely, and with the US-Israel rampage throughout the Middle East, the future prospects of IMEEC look shaky.

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There are arguments that Hamas’ October 7 attack was part of an attempt by the Axis of Resistance to throw a wrench in the IMEEC plans. But then one must also consider the explanation that the attack was at least allowed to happen over the most heavily guarded border in the world in order to allow the US-Israel to enact the ongoing genocide and land grabs that reenvisions the region as part of IMEEC. Either might be too neat of explanations on their own, but the way Zionists are proceeding certainly has a fantasy component for the future of their potential conquests.

On Monday, the Israeli settler organization Nachala and members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party held a conference “Preparing to Resettle Gaza” in southern Israel. Two short months after the launch of Israel’s genocidal response to Oct. 7, the Netanyahu government was already internally circulating its future vision for Gaza.

The Jerusalem Post revealed those plans back in May. Known as “Gaza 2035,” they envision the strip remaining under long-term Israeli control with the goal to “rebuild from nothing.” Here’s how that apparently looks:

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And here it is in the wider region as an “industrial production center” with access to “energy and raw materials from the Gulf while leveraging Israeli technology” and a key segment in IMEEC.

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As ArtReview points out:

Before 8 October 2023, Gaza was already a modern, bustling city. It had a similar average density to London, a 97 percent literacy rate, 36 hospitals, 12 universities, parks, highrises, recreational beaches. If the goal is to ‘rebuild from nothing’, then it will be because Israel has razed the territory’s cities, towns and villages. The question is, who will it be rebuilt for?

…throughout the three ‘phases’ explained in the document, it becomes clear that the Palestinians permitted to live among the ruins of their homeland would provide cheap labour in this new ‘regional trade and energy hub’ intended for Israeli business interests.

Displacing a population and destroying their existing social, architectural and economic fabric under the guise of modernisation harks back to colonial ideas about certain races and societies being apparently unfit or incapable of extracting the maximum profit from land – an argument favoured by nineteenth-century colonisers from South Africa to North America. Three hundred years of this thinking has landed us in our grotesquely unequal present, yet former colonial powers in Europe and settler colonies like the US continue to finance the militarisation of Israel.


That’s likely why Europe and the US continue to finance Israel. There’s a long history of grand plans to remake the region and use Palestinians as disposable labor. As Laura Robson, a professor of history at Penn State University, describes in her 2023 book “Human Capital: A History of Putting Refugees to Work” the Palestinian refugee has always meant being in perpetual limbo pending a political settlement and being eligible for material aid but not legal assistance, asylum, or political advocacy. This meant keeping Palestinians confined to Arab host states and making them prime candidates for regional refugee labor — although efforts to deploy Palestinians as laborers in American-backed projects across the Middle East largely failed, not least because they agitated for more labor and political rights.

According to The Jerusalem Post, the Israeli government believes this vision for Gaza could be duplicated in the Axis of Resistance countries of Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. Those countries will obviously have something to say about that. They’re also part of the competing world powers different visions for how to include the region in logistics corridors.

Prior to the unveiling of IMEEC plans, there were already similar projects to underway in the Middle East led by Russia, Iran, and China, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which like IMEEC also involves India.

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The INSTC faces several challenges, including infrastructure in Iran, sanctions, the West trying to create chokepoints in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and relentless pressure on New Delhi from the Five Eyes.

In August India approved a $9 billion public-private-partnership proposal to build an enormous port on its West coast at Vadhavan. New Delhi and private investors are hoping that IMEEC and/or the INSTC will come through to make the investment pay off.

There’s also the project to connect Bandar Imam Khomeini Port with Syria’s Latakia Port:

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Some background from The Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation International:

Stretching 32 km and crossing the Iran-Iraq border, a new economic lifeline could potentially fuel Syrian ports. This is the Shalamcheh-Basra railway line.

The idea was first proposed in 2011 but was delayed due to the deteriorating security situation in Iraq with the rise of the terrorist group ISIS. The project resurfaced in 2023 when Iraq and Iran signed an agreement to expedite the construction of the railway, with both sides committing to complete the project within two years.

The Iranian president’s visit to Iraq on September 11 provided an additional boost, renewing high-level political support and commitments for the project’s completion. Discussions between the two sides helped resolve technical, financial, and border security issues, which may speed up the project’s progress…According to Al Jazeera, Iran places great importance on Iraq, viewing it as a vital link to Syria and Lebanon within the resistance axis. Iran also aims to connect the Shalamcheh-Basra railway to Syrian ports.


According to Arsharq Al-Awsat, establishing a railway link from Iran to the Mediterranean falls under the 25-year MoU between Iran and China signed in 2021, which includes hundreds of billions of Chinese investment in return for discounted oil. In July, Iran and China launched freight trains between the two countries via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

As for IMEEC and Gaza 2035, even if the US-Israel were to somehow completely empty Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria of all human life so that their oligarchs have free rein to construct their capitalist utopias (dystopias for the majority), there will still be loads of other problems with IMEEC that need to be ironed out. It’s probably more likely the US and Israel settle for violent grifts rather than the ambitious IMEEC and attempt to stymie other China and Russia-backed corridors in the region. There’s only so long that can work, however, and there’s also the fact that the US-Israel barbarity in the Middle East is currently diverting trade from the region, and in the process is only encouraging other countries to seek alternative routes.

China’s Belt and Road and Georgia

Maybe nowhere is this logistics great game more evident than with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which nowadays could be viewed as an effort to diversify its trade routes to ensure the country cannot be cut off from any needed imports by the West.

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As China attempts to extend its reach, the US with the frequent help of the EU have rarely offered competing infrastructure projects, but instead attempt to sever China’s links through various, typically nefarious, means. BRI countries are often the targets of pressure campaigns or coup attempts by Western-backed forces, and Chinese loans to global south countries — while far from perfect, they’re still better than what the West has on offer — have been smeared for years in attempts to get recipient countries to refuse or back out of the deals. If all that fails, destabilization is often a tool that is turned to.

Let’s just focus on one country that has been in the news recently and will likely be there a lot soon as it has an election coming up this weekend that could be accompanied by color revolution attempts. That’s Georgia. Now why is the West so concerned about this Black Sea country of less than four million people seeking better ties with Moscow and Beijing to the point some pretty ugly allegations are flying around?

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The problem for the US is that Georgia making nice with Russia goes against Washington’s Black Sea Strategy, but maybe even more than that is Georgia is an important piece of the puzzle for Chinese logistics on its Middle Corridor:

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Azerbaijan and China signed a Joint Declaration on establishing a strategic partnership at this year’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. The economic components of that agreement focused on cooperation in oil and gas production and transport infrastructure — i.e., continuing their pursuit of connectivity through the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route. Georgia’s turn away from the West, and the current government’s decision to repair ties with Russia and selection of a Chinese consortium to build its Anaklia port has Washington on its back foot — for now. We’ll see what happens with Georgia’s upcoming election and its aftermath.

What is the West’s ultimate goal? The fact that a Chinese consortium was selected to build Georgia’s deep sea port drew the ire of the West, but the Chinese consortium submitted the sole bid. There was a past effort to build it that involved the US. Here’s some background from RFE/RL:

A previous attempt to build the port in Anaklia by a consortium formed between Georgia’s TBC Bank and U.S.-based Conti International was canceled by the government in 2020 after years of political controversy that saw TBC co-founders Mamuka Khazaradze and Badri Japaridze facing money-laundering charges.

Following the charges, the American investor pulled out and the project ground to a halt until the government canceled the $2.5 billion port contract.


The fact is the West hardly builds stuff anymore — at least not competitively.

Have you ever heard of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI)? It wouldn’t be surprising if not.It was compared to the BRI when it first came about four years ago, and then mostly faded into obscurity. It’s described as “a politically inspired, commercially driven platform for improving connectivity between thirteen EU Member States allocated between Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas.”

The problem is it doesn’t really build anything. 3SI is led by the US, Germany, and the European Commission and has an investment fund advised by Amber Infrastructure Group, which promises “an attractive return to the investors.” The Three Seas Fund was created under Luxembourg law, which means it’s liable to a subscription tax of 0.01% of the fund’s net assets and is exempted from the payment of the capital gains tax, income tax, and wealth tax.

Started in 2019, 3SI has made a lot of investments and participated in some privatizations of public infrastructure but little actual infrastructure has been built. Involved parties continue to iron out “ultimate return on investment calculation.”

If we return to IMEEC, if it ever comes to fruition after a pause in all the killing, it’s still unclear who would actually lay the rail and pipelines and who would pay for it while ensuring they get a healthy return on the investment.

Plus Ca Change…

The same pieces of land that have been fought over for hundreds of years, remain points of contention today. France and Britain vied for the island of Perim in the Bab el Mandeb back in the 19th century. Today the US and others fail to prevent the Houthis from effectively closing the “Gate of Tears.”

The Armenians emerged victorious against the Turks and Soviets for Zangezur in 1920. The strip of land is now being contested again. The powers might change, but the logistics remain the same. And here we are again.

Today while the territory doesn’t fly a new flag when conquered, If we view it through the lens of neoliberalism and financialization of infrastructure, much of the fighting is over who gets to collect the rent.

Could the “rules-based international order” mean that the Russians can mine their resources, the Chinese can process them, and the Chinese can build it, but Western oligarchs must own it?

Of course the workers don’t own it anywhere, and as far as I can see that isn’t set to change in a more multipolar world. Readers can correct me if I’m wrong, but as the BRICS kick off their meeting in Kazan, the member countries still have some of the worst economic inequality in the world. Now, some argue that they’re still developing and working to make it better, but it sure is hard to see. In India, for example, income inequality is now worse than under British rule. According to the Gini Index score, the top four countries for wealth inequality are all BRICS members: South Africa, Brazil, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia (India is seventh), and across much of the BRICS, the problem is getting worse.

Are we just going to get more global oligarchs in China and Russia and some humbled in the US? Unfortunately for all of us, by the time they come to a truce and divvy up the pie, most of the logistics infrastructure might just be worthless anyways due to the ravages of climate change and the next pandemic(s).

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10 ... -game.html

(I find the final paragraphs unduly pessimistic. Not that I see 'multipolarity' as a panacea, it will lead, sooner rather than later, to a renewal of imperialistic competition. But the elephant in that room is the Chinee Communist Party.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Fri Oct 25, 2024 3:43 pm

THE MILLION POUND RANSOM — HOW THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT’S INVESTIGATION OF NOVICHOK IS POISONING ITSELF

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

The British Government’s investigation of the alleged Novichok attacks against Sergei and Yulia Skripal, which they survived, and Dawn Sturgess, who died, has now run for six and half years. The public presentation of evidence and witnesses has completed its first week; the second week of hearings will begin next Monday, October 28. The hearings will end in the first week of December. A report of the conclusions will follow months later.

The judge presiding is a retired Court of Appeal judge named Anthony Hughes – titled Lord Hughes of Ombersley – is also a consultant lawyer. Hughes advertises that he is available for engagement on private cases at his London office, telephone +44 (0)20 7242 3555.

His terms of engagement from the Home Office, his job now, is to manage the Government’s two imperatives. The first is to protect the British government narrative to ensure no one disbelieves the Russians did it, as then-Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson announced on the BBC on March 17, 2018.

Judge Hughes’s website claims he is presiding in “an independent Inquiry into the circumstances of Dawn Sturgess’ death in Salisbury on 8 July 2018.” Independent of Russia is certain. Hughes opened the proceeding on March 25, 2022 by saying: “The issues raised by the terms of reference include those of the utmost gravity, including the allegation which has been publicly made of Russian state responsibility for the killing of Ms Sturgess indirectly.” In fact, the terms of reference make no such allegation.

Hughes then announced he had appointed Emilie Pottle, a London lawyer, to represent three Russian military officers whom the British prosecutor has charged with attempted murder. Married to a “freelance writer” who has worked in the Iraqi and Libyan warzones with UK and US forces, Pottle is being paid by the Home Office to appear. Last week as a Crown prosecutor, she fed leading questions to medical and police witnesses.

The judge’s assisting lawyer, Mark O’Connor KC revealed last week that he has concluded what has to be proved, and expects witnesses to do the same. “I want”, O’Connor asked Wayne Darch, deputy director of the regional ambulance service and supervisor of the medics who attended the Skripals and Sturgess, “to start, if I may, with the question of what understanding or training ambulance staff had of or for nerve agent, organophosphate poisoning before the Skripal poisoning in March 2018, and we will work then forward in the chronology, okay?”

Working forward in the chronology means, for the British government, that the Hughes proceeding will work backward to prove retrospectively that the Russian government ordered and carried out the Novichok assassination plot of 2018. So far, not a single British newspaper, television or social medium has reported differently.

The second imperative for Hughes is to protect the British Government from the case for negligence which the Sturgess family lawyer, Michael Mansfield KC, is making to support his claim for a multi-million pound payout for compensation of their loss to the Sturgess family, her boyfriend Charles Rowley, and to Mansfield himself and his associated lawyers. The first attempt at Mansfield’s legal strategy of “dosh for Dawn’s death” did not succeed in the High Court in mid-2020. The Hughes proceeding is Mansfield’s last, big chance to accuse the British secret services of culpable negligence in failing to anticipate the Russian strike against Sergei Skripal on March 4, 2018, and to protect the British public from the Novichok fallout the alleged Russian assassins left behind.

The contradiction between the first and second imperatives grows obvious with every session. The quality of the evidence of Russian Novichok runs from weak to preposterous; the legal presentation from tendentious to inadmissible. But to earn his ransom Mansfield must accept as true what he cannot prove to be lies. He and his money-shot are motivated by the legal principle known as claim of right – you can’t steal from a thief.

Follow the evidence of what happened to the Skripals and to Sturgess as the events occurred and as government officials and the police tried to explain them, in the only book of the case to be published. Since the book’s publication in February 2020, the archive of the case developments, new evidence, new coverup attempts, and coroners and judges replacing each other has appeared here.

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Source: https://johnhelmer.net/

The only secret service evidence so far to appear in court was presented on the second day of the public hearings by MD39, a name kept secret because it belongs to a 25-year veteran of MI5, the British equivalent of the FBI, who described himself as “a senior leader within MI5’s Counter State Threats branch.”

“The purpose of this statement,” the MI5 officer wrote in his witness statement tabled in court, “is to address the nature and extent of M15’s investigation into the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal, and latterly Ms Sturgess, and its liaison with the parallel police investigations… Although I was not directly involved in the events described below, I am well placed to provide this statement on behalf of M15…As I have outlined above, I cannot go into specific detail about what intelligence M15 obtained, nor when this was received and/or shared with the police though the course of the post-incident investigation. I can however say that, throughout, MI5 supported the police in all aspects of their investigation, including through the provision of intelligence and assessment, which ultimately enabled the police to bring charges against Alexander Petrov, Ruslan Boshirov and Sergey Fedotov.”

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MI5’s head, Ken McCallum, announced on October 8: “The UK’s leading role in supporting Ukraine means we loom large in the fevered imagination of Putin’s regime, and we should expect to see continued acts of aggression here at home. The GRU in particular is on a sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets: we’ve seen arson, sabotage and more. Dangerous actions conducted with increasing recklessness. And having precisely the opposite effect to what the Russian state intends, in driving increased operational coordination with partners across Europe and beyond. This concerted campaign requires a strong and sustained response. We’re working with the police to use the new National Security Act to its fullest extent.” McCallum was born and educated in Scotland in 1974; he has never been employed outside MI5.

MI5’s MD39 was not questioned directly. Instead, Hughes’s assisting lawyer asked a subordinate regional police commander to confirm that in their testimony he and MI5 had been “as transparent as possible, but I must emphasise at the outset that there remains a level of detail that I cannot address without risking serious harm to national security.” “Yes, absolutely” replied the policeman. “Commander Murphy,” he was then asked, “can you confirm that there was indeed a covert investigation from your knowledge? A. I can, yes.”

Who was running whom, MI5 or the regional police, was the line of questioning, as the judge’s counsel tried to show that the two forces had collaborated in order to exclude any oversight or negligence from the time of the Skripal attack in March to Sturgess’s death three months later. “Q. At paragraph 14 MD39 gives slightly more information about what the police did and what MI5 did in this particular case: ‘… the police led on ensuring public safety, the prevention of further attacks, evidence gathering to support executive action and ensuring public confidence and reassurance, including delivering public communications in relation to the incident.’ Do you agree with that? A. Yes, that’s correct.”

“Q. MI5 led on the: ‘… gathering and exploitation, assessment and dissemination of intelligence to support the post-incident investigation.’ Is that correct? A. ‘While a large proportion of the investigation involved covert activities and collection of intelligence, some simultaneous overt activities were conducted by police, including large-scale CCTV retrieval and public appeals for assistance.” Again, is that right? A. Yes, that’s right. In essence that is us sharing information from our investigative activity back with MI5 to ensure that we’ve got that two-way sharing to make joint assessments of what we do next.”

This is a record of secret claims from one witness accepted by Hughes as admissible evidence on hearsay by a second witness – without cross-examination by Pottle, the purported legal representative of the accused Russians, or by O’Connor, the lead advocate of the independent inquiry, or by the judge. Hughes limited himself to this exchange with his assisting counsel:


“LORD HUGHES : Where are you please, Ms Whitelaw?

MS WHITELAW: In fact because I am all over the [witness] statement now –

LORD HUGHES: All right, that’s fine.”
The hearing was adjourned shortly after.

Christopher Black, one of Canada’s leading lawyers in international war crimes cases, was asked to comment on the legality of the Sturgess proceeding. “It is remarkable, first, that Pottle is allowed to act for the Inquiry as a de facto prosecutor when she has a conflict of interest since she acted for the Russians prior. But then there are no Russians there to complain about it. Second, her questioning of the ambulance man is improper. It would not be allowed in a criminal trial. The witness should be asked what did they observe and do, from their memory. A witness can only refer to notes made beforehand if the lawyer goes through the procedure of asking the witness if the made notes; then if yes, do they need them to refresh their memory as to events. If yes, then the witness can refer to the notes themselves when answering questions. But that is not what is done here. Instead, they have entered the ambulance man’s statement to police as an exhibit and are using that as evidence instead of his own recall of events, and it is curious that he does not remember a number of things in the statement. So, this lawyer is essentially cross-examining her own witness by leading him through the statement and getting him to say yes or no with some explanations.”

“On the other hand, this is not a trial, but an inquiry, so the rules of evidence and procedure have been relaxed — that is to say, ignored. And of course there is no one for the Russians there to object to any of this.”

By English criminal law and by international law standards, the medical evidence of the ambulance medics who responded to the calls for help for Sturgess and boyfriend Rowley is inconclusive on the key question – what caused her death in her apartment before the ambulances and local police arrived on June 30, 2018. A heavily redacted police intelligence analysis, reported on July 15, 2018, by the Counter Terrorism Policing Unit identified a “contaminant” in the Sturgess home but did not identify what it was. The report – only the first and fifth of its eleven pages have been released — could not explain why Sturgess went into cardiac arrest and died within 15 minutes of contamination; why Rowley failed to show symptoms after his contact with the contaminant, from his mouth to mouth resuscitation of Sturgess and from other direct contact he had with her body fluids. The police report said “it is highly likely [sic] that this contaminated item was something [sic] in the bathroom or one of STURGESS’ personal possessions.”

Sic marks the guesswork on July 15, 2018, seven days after Sturgess was declared officially dead at Salisbury Hospital, and five days after the alleged Russian Novichok had been discovered on a kitchen table in the house. The police intelligence analysis, coordinated with MI5, concluded: “this assessment is consistent [sic] with the discovery [sic] of a contaminated perfume bottle within the flat. ROWLEY confirms that he picked up the bottle as a gift for STURGESS.”

The report omits to acknowledge that the perfume bottle had not been discovered by thorough searches of the house, including the bathroom, kitchen and living room, by several teams of police who followed after the responding ambulance men had conducted their own searches.

In the ambulance records and witness statements of the first medics to reach Sturgess, she was clinically dead – no pulse, no blood pressure, no breathing, “AVPU [Alert, Voice, Pain, Unresponsive]”. On the official timeline evidence, this was at least 30 minutes after contamination at about 10 am. In the testimony of Mark Marriott, the first ambulanceman to arrive, Sturgess was dead; Rowley was showing no symptoms. “‘When did she collapse? [Marriott asked Rowley]’ he replied ‘Ten fifteen minutes ago’, he was a bit flustered, he seemed a bit jiddery, a bit muddled in himself. Nothing else about him concerned me. I assessed this, and found what he had disclosed was consistent of being a fit, but at this point, the cause of the Cardiac Arrest was still unknown.”

Marriott saw no perfume bottle in the bathroom: “The bathroom was quite sparse…The walls to the bathroom were magnolia in colour, the toilet and bath were white. I don’t recall what other items were inside the bathroom, in respect of toiletries, there were some items on the floor, but I don’t remember what they were.”

Marriott reported that he asked Rowley if he wanted to get into the ambulance and accompany Sturgess to Salisbury Hospital. Rowley refused and went off with a companion. In retrospect, it is now known that Rowley took narcotic drugs during the hours which followed.

A second medic, Keith Coomber, followed Marriott and testified to what he saw, did, heard, and found while trying to revive Sturgess. “I said ‘Has she taken drugs’ and the boyfriend [Rowley] came to the hallway and said ‘No drugs but she is an alcoholic’.” Rowley and the Sturgess family have subsequently denied this. The Sturgess toxicology test reports prepared by Salisbury Hospital staff and by the post-mortem pathologists remain secret.

The ambulance medics who returned to the address at 18:47 in the evening of June 30, 2018, responding to a call for Rowley, testified that they made thorough searches of the bathroom and kitchen, opening cupboards. They reported finding prepared syringes and other drug paraphernalia; they did not report finding a perfume bottle.

“Ian had asked if we could see any drug paraphernalia in the property, which I [ambulanceman Paul Channon] hadn’t seen, so I decided to have a look around to see if there was any. I could not see anything in the lounge area so started opening all the drawers and cupboards I could see. In the cupboard on the left hand side of the kitchens window, I found a connected and opened syringe and needle that appeared either used or ready for use. There were also a couple of other syringes, although I am not sure exactly how many.”

The ambulance crew was with Rowley at the house for two and a half hours. Rowley denied taking drugs. The toxicology reports prepared after his admission to hospital remain secret.

In his appearance on the fifth day of hearings on October 18, Channon, the first medic responder to Rowley, was asked leading questions by the Inquiry lawyer, Francesca Whitelaw KC:

“Q. You may have seen — we have seen this document in evidence before. I just wanted to confirm with you – you indicated that you looked in the kitchen in a cupboard to the left of the window sill, so is that below the star there where we see –

A. Where the micro, yes –

Q.– and the perfume box; was that the cupboard where you saw the syringes?

A. I believe so, yes.

Q. Did you do anything with them or did you just leave them there?

A. No, I saw them there and at that point it was beneficial to aid us that this may be someone that uses intravenous drugs.”

Channon the ambulanceman did not say he had seen a perfume bottle in the kitchen. Whitelaw, the Home Office lawyer engaged to assist the “independent inquiry”, said it.

A leading British expert in organophosphorus poisoning was asked to review the medical evidence given to date and to say if the symptoms presented by Sturgess were those of a Novichok-type victim. He replied: “The responders seem to have done a capable job of at least getting Dawn’s heart going. 3 on the Glasgow Coma Scale is not good, and who knows the extent of brain damage. We await the SDH [Salisbury District Hospital] evidence, if we are allowed to hear it all.”

Next week two doctors will be called to give evidence on their treatment of the Skripals, as well as of Sturgess and Rowley. James Haslam is scheduled to appear – but not in the 10-minute delayed Youtube broadcast – along with Stephen Cockcroft. Haslam, the head of the Radnor Intensive Care Ward at the Salisbury hospital, has already testified publicly – in a military co-authored and vetted publication — that he is unsure what the poison source had been in the patients he treated. He referred to no toxicology evidence, and he refused to answer questions when asked in June 2020.

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Source: https://johnhelmer.net/

Cockcroft, the second scheduled medical witness next week, is unknown. There is no previous record of his testifying on the Skripal and Sturgess cases in the press or elsewhere. This was the nurse and doctor group in charge of Sergei and Yulia Skripal at Salisbury Hospital – Stephen Jukes was the lead doctor: Jukes was the hospital witness at the High Court protection hearing to authorize the testing of the Skripals by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in March 2018.

Cockcroft’s name has not surfaced in the coroner’s hearings since 2018 or in the Hughes proceeding since 2022. He was not in the Radnor Ward medical team at SDH. His current curriculum vitae indicates that he was at Salisbury Hospital between 1994 and 2020, and is now at another hospital.

So far, the two Home Office pathologists who conducted the post-mortem investigations of Sturgess are missing. The first report by Philip Lumb, following his post-mortem and autopsy immediately after Sturgess was declared dead at the hospital on July 8, 2018, was “post cardiac arrest hypoxic brain injury and intracerebral haemorrhage”, according to the document he signed. This means that Sturgess suffered from a heart attack, which then stopped the flow of oxygen to her brain (hypoxia). Lumb did not report what caused Sturgess’s heart to stop.

More than four months later, on November 29, 2018, a second pathologist, Guy Rutty, signed a report adding Novichok as the cause of Sturgess’s fatal cardiac arrest. Rutty’s addition was kept secret for another two and a half years, revealed only in the Wiltshire coroner’s court between February 28 and March 30, 2020. The cause of Sturgess’s death, which Rutty signed and which was sworn to by the counsel for the coroner, was read out in court: “Ia post cardiac arrest hypoxic brain injury and intracerebral haemorrhage; Ib Novichok toxicity”.

British forensic toxicologists have observed that the wording of the “Ia/Ib” does not establish the causal link which the coroner at the time, and now Judge Hughes are claiming. “This phraseology is very unusual,” commented an expert source. “They [Rutty and Lumb] seem to have quite deliberately separated the two ‘events’. Far more common to have the words ‘brought about by’ or ‘as a result of’ replacing the 1b term. The implication is that the doctors are separating the events for a reason.”

Rutty and Lumb have repeatedly refused to answer questions, and they have made no comments to the mainstream UK media. In the British Government’s imperative, their testimony is now crucial. Their evidence that Sturgess was killed by Russian Novichok is the foundation of the case – both for the Government, and for the Sturgess family lawyer’s claim for million-pound compensation.

Will Rutty and Lumb be called to testify?

Hughes has published the schedule of his hearings in the third week:

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Source: https://dsiweb-prod.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/

Hughes’s spokesman was asked to confirm if Rutty and Lumb will be called to give evidence on “Medical Cause of Death – Pathology”. The spokesman has refused to say.

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Are Russian Spy Agencies Trying to Stoke Anti-US Sentiment in Mexico? According to the FBI, They Are
Posted on October 25, 2024 by Nick Corbishley

“The time has come to show the United States that it is under threat from a country of 130 million inhabitants that is finally waking up.”

Russia is trying to poison bilateral relations between the Mexico and the US by taking advantage of Mexico’s ruling party Morena’s innate anti-Americanism. That is the conclusion of an article published last week by Washington-based American journalist Dolia Estévez. The apparent basis for this claim is an alleged document published by the “Social Design Agency”, part of a Kremlin-funded global disinformation campaign called Doppelgänger.

That document somehow found its way into the hands of the FBI, and the US Department of Justice declassified it last week. In its decision to reveal elements of the document to Estévez, a reporter with ties to the Woodrow Wilson Centre for International Scholars, a US government think tank, the DOJ sought to “alert public opinion and the Mexican government about Russia’s sinister plans to drag Mexico into a spurious conflict with the United States”.

“Existential Resentment”

The Russian document advocates intensifying Russian meddling in Mexico by stirring up anti-American sentiment in the country. The authors propose exploiting Mexicans’ “existential resentment” over the loss of over half of their territory to the US in the mid-19th century as well as creating a “perception of threat” on a border overwhelmed by violence and migration — all apparently with one main goal in mind: to help Donald Trump, “our partner”, get back in the White House:

Written in Russian and translated into English, the six-page text.. brings the 1848 war to life with a map depicting California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, part of Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas as not belonging to either the United States or Mexico. Instead, there is an imaginary gap between the two, with the slogan “Mexico does not forgive” along the dividing line. Although territorial annexation is still present in the collective imagination of some, it is crazy to assume that it will lead to another war with the United States, which the writing evokes with a painting of the Battle of Buena Vista in 1847, which Mexico lost…

From the document’s title, A Mexican Pass for Candidate “A”: A Project for Proxies in the November 2024 Campaign – to the last sentence – “The time has come to show the United States that it is under threat from a country of 130 million inhabitants that is finally waking up” – the project makes [Russia’s] intentions clear: to use Mexico as a tool to erode the credibility of the US electoral system and help Trump win the elections.

“Candidate A (Trump), who was building a border wall, who every day of his presidency talked about the immigration problem coming from the South and to whom the baton must be passed to shift the political narrative [NC: presumably a reference to the war in Ukraine], urgently needs an intensifying confrontation with Mexico.” The success of the U.S. economy, which electorally favours “candidate B” (Democrat), leaves Trump the option of “creating the perception of a threat” from violent cartels and hordes of angry migrants at the border.


Morena, the party of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and the current head of state Claudia Sheinbaum, is, in the words of the alleged document cited by Estévez, “an easily manipulated centre-left formation with anti-American tendencies, that is favourable to de-dollarisation and a reorientation of Mexico’s economic priorities.” As for Morena’s electoral base, it consists principally of Mexico’s disadvantaged classes, which largely share this anti-American sentiment — again, according to the document cited by Estévez.

But is the document real? Who knows? It could be. But all we have to go on is the word of the FBI, whose judgment was, to put it mildly, sorely lacking in its “investigation” of Russiagate, as the Durham Report concluded last year:

“[T]he FBI discounted or willfully ignored material information that did not support the narrative of a collusive relationship between Trump and Russia… An objective and honest assessment of these strands of information should have caused the FBI to question not only the predication for Crossfire Hurricane, but also to reflect on whether the FBI was being manipulated for political or other purposes. Unfortunately, it did not.”

Even by the standards of those who brought us Russiagate, this latest story is riddled with holes, not least of which is the alleged document’s use of the word “success” to describe the US economy right now. Then there is the idea that the government of Mexico, whose economy is joined at the hip to the US, is somehow favourable to de-dollarisation. It also seems that Kamala Harris, like Biden before her, is perfectly capable of sabotaging her own presidential campaign without any need of outside help, and one would imagine that Moscow knows this.

Also, both the former Trump and current Biden governments have done a sterling job of stoking anti-US sentiment in Mexico on their own, through a combination of insults (mainly on the part of Trump), lawsuits (mainly Biden) and threats (from both sides but particularly Trump and the Republicans who have been talking about intervening militarily in Mexico to cap the capos for at least five years). And lest we forget, these accusations, whether true or not, are coming from the country that has meddled the most in Mexico for the past 180 years.

That all being said, Russia does have a motive for fanning the flames of anti-US sentiment in Mexico. Exacerbating tensions between the US and its direct southern neighbour and largest trade partner is a good way of keeping the US on its toes in its own neighbourhood, and somewhat distracted from other parts of the world. The same goes for Moscow’s deepening of ties with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.

But if that is what Moscow is indeed doing, it pales into insignificance with what the US has done over the past 10 years with Russia’s direct neighbour, Ukraine, which includes (but is by no means limited to) orchestrating the Euro Maiden coup, empowering Ukraine’s Azov Nazis and arming Kiev to the teeth so that it could wage war on the Eastern oblasts. When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine finally began, Washington, together with London, did everything they could to wreck any chances of a swift negotiated peace.

Estévez closes her article with the following exhortation to / admonition of her readers:

What I relate here should be enough to convince the short-sighted, skeptical or ignorant that Russian interference in Mexico is not an invention of the CIA, nor the product of the “Russophobia” of a handful of journalists on both sides of the Atlantic, but a real and proactive strategy of great importance in which Morena, knowingly or not, is a formidably useful tool.

“Back to the Cold War”

US accusations of Russian meddling in Mexico are likely to continue, if not intensify, in the coming months. After all, this is a trend that began over two years ago. As readers may recall, in the early days of the Ukraine conflict, US Ambassador Ken Salazar told Mexican lawmakers, to their faces, that Mexico cannot ever be close to Russia:

“I have here (he said while indicating lapels on his jacket breast) the flags of Mexico, the United States and Ukraine. We have to be in solidarity with Ukraine and against Russia.”

The Russian ambassador was here yesterday making a lot of noise about how Mexico and Russia are so close. This, sorry, can never happen. It can never happen…”


As we noted at the time, Salazar’s comments were controversial for a variety of reasons:

First, Mexico is a sovereign nation and as such should be able to choose which countries it wants to forge close ties with, even if they are the target of U.S. sanctions.

Second, the hypocrisy stinks. U.S. and its European allies have consistently argued that Russia has absolutely no right to try to determine what happens within the borders of its sovereign neighbour Ukraine, even as tons of weapons poured into the country from NATO Member States such as Poland and the Czech Republic. Yet the US Government, through its ambassador to Mexico, is now trying to literally dictate the terms of Mexico’s relationship with Russia.

What the U.S. essentially seems to be saying is that neutrality is not an option in the escalating conflict between Russia and the West — at least not for Mexico.

Which brings us to the third point: Mexico has a long, albeit interrupted, history of neutrality dating all the way back to the early 1930s. In 1939, a neutrality clause was even added to its constitution by the government of then-President Lazaro Cardenas, which also nationalized Mexico’s oil and gas a year earlier. Since then Mexico has enjoyed close relations with many countries that have been targeted by international sanctions, including Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Mexico’s long-held position of neutrality has also made it a haven for people seeking political asylum, including republicans fleeing Spain at the end of the Spanish Civil War and the emigres of the Southern Cone dictatorships of the 1960s and ’70s.


Despite relentless US pressure, Mexico continues to enjoy close ties with Russia, even going so far as to invite Vladimir Putin to Claudia Sheinbaum’s inaugural ceremony, which he ended up declining for obvious reasons. In March 2023, Estévez reported that in a matter of just a few months the total number of Russian diplomats in Mexico had increased by around 60%, to 85. In its September article, “Back to the Cold War: Russia Uses Mexico As a Hub for Spying on the U.S.“, NBC highlighted US officials’ concerns about the recent build up of Russian diplomats and intelligence officers in Mexico.

Russia has added dozens of personnel to its embassy staff in Mexico City in the past few years, even though Moscow has only limited trade ties with the country. U.S. officials say the trend is concerning and believe the extensive buildup is aimed at bolstering the Kremlin’s intelligence operations targeting the U.S., as well as its propaganda efforts aimed at undermining Washington and Ukraine…

CIA Director William Burns said earlier this month his agency and the U.S. government are “sharply focused” on Russia’s expanding footprint in Mexico, which he said was partly the result of Russian spies being expelled from foreign capitals after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Part of this is a function of the fact that so many Russian intelligence officers have been kicked out of Europe. … So they’re looking for places to go and looking for places in which they can operate,” Burns said in London this month when asked about suspected Russian spying out of Mexico. “But we’re very sharply focused on that.”

Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, head of U.S. Northern Command, even suggested in 2022 that Mexico is currently home to the “largest portion of GRU members in the world… Those are Russian intelligence personnel, and they keep an eye very closely on their opportunities to have influence on U.S. opportunities and access.”

Part of Russia’s growing influence in Latin America is through the media. Unlike in Europe and North America, most Latin American countries, including Mexico, have not banned RT. On the contrary, a study by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at the University of Oxford revealed how RT and the Sputnik news agency have increased their presence in Latin America after the invasion of Ukraine, adding a group of influencers from the region to their team of presenters and journalists. RT is even broadcast on Mexico City’s public transport.

To the immense frustration of Washington and its European allies/vassals, Mexico’s government, like most governments in the region, has tried to chart an independent course on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This, as far as I can tell, is not a product of pressure or manipulation from Moscow but rather a manifestation of Mexico’s historic commitment to neutrality in wars.

Like Brazil and most other LatAm nations, Mexico resolutely opposes sanctions, for an array of economic, geostrategic and ethical reasons that we have outlined in previous posts (here and here). These countries are terrified, understandably, by the precedent the US, EU, UK and friends have set by attempting to excise Russia from the global financial system as well as Washington’s weaponisation of the dollar.

Lastly, this being BRICS week, an article on Mexico-Russia relations would not be complete without a brief mention of the purely symbolic BRICS banknote Putin flashed for the cameras. It is, I believe, the second time the BRICS banknote has made an appearance, the first time being at the BRICS 2023 Summit in Durban.

As readers may have noticed, one side of the note features the flags of the five founding members while the other (depicted below) shows the flags of 14 other nations — some current members, others perhaps future members. Interestingly, one of the flags featured is Mexico’s, which reignited rumours that Mexico may one day join the BRICS. The Argentine flag also makes an appearance despite the fact Javier Milei declined the opportunity to join the grouping while the flag of Ethiopia, already a member of BRICS+, doesn’t.

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The inclusion of the Mexican flag is, I imagine, little more than expert trolling by Putin. As both AMLO and Sheinbaum have said, and in AMLO’s case on numerous occasions, this is not going to happen — at least not in the current context. Mexico’s economy is simply too integrated with the US and Canada’s for it to be able to join the BRICS. And Washington will presumably do whatever it can to ensure it never comes to pass. As Sheinbaum said last week, Mexico will be open to other countries for the next six years of her term, but “our interest is in strengthening the trade agreement with the United States and Canada.”

The only thing that might change that is if the US continues to hurl insults, threats and lawsuits in Mexico’s direction — or even worse, if a new Trump administration delivers on its threat to intervene militarily in Mexico.

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Sat Oct 26, 2024 2:45 pm

RAG PICKING THROUGH THE KAZAN DECLARATION – WHAT PRESIDENT PUTIN GAINED, WHAT HE LOST FROM BRICS 24

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

Ragpicking is a serious women’s business, extracting value from rubbish. Cheerleading is the unserious business of girls waving pompoms at football games.

There are those who claim the Kazan Declaration is today’s equivalent of the Bretton Woods Final Act (1944) and Bandung Declaration (1955), or a “a huge manifesto”, or “victory for all decent freedom-loving people on Earth”.

To help decide if these aren’t pompoms, here’s a pick through the 33 pages, 131 paragraphs of the terms the BRICS member states were able to agree and agree to disagree on, particularly the three most powerful states – China, India, Russia (alphabetical).
[…more]

As Russia has been the chairman of BRICS for 2024, host of the summit meeting in Kazan this week, and led in the plenaries by President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin release of this English version of the Declaration should be considered authoritative.

Paragraphs 6 and 8: “…we reaffirm our commitment to multilateralism and upholding the international law, including the Purposes and Principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations (UN) as its indispensable cornerstone, and the central role of the UN in the international system…We further emphasize the urgent need to achieve equitable and inclusive geographical representation in the staff composition of the Secretariat of the United Nations and other international organizations in a timely manner…we reaffirm our support for a comprehensive reform of the United Nations, including its Security Council, with a view to making it more democratic, representative, effective and efficient, and to increase the representation of developing countries in the Council’s memberships so that it can adequately respond to prevailing global challenges and support the legitimate aspirations of emerging and developing countries from Africa, Asia and Latin America, including BRICS countries, to play a greater role in international affairs, in particular in the United Nations, including its Security Council.”
Reorganizing the Anglo-American and French domination of the national staff quotas at the UN in New York, especially to rebalance the way in which the current UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has acted prejudicially, is much less than the reform of the membership of the UN Security Council because India, Brazil, and South Africa do not agree with Russia and China. Improving the UN staff quotas for BRICS member state nationals is tokenism without policy impact. Score for pompoms.

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Left: https://johnhelmer.net/did-un-secretary ... -azovstal/ Right: https://johnhelmer.net/the-food-war-the ... real-deal/

Paragraph 10: “We are deeply concerned about the disruptive effect of unlawful unilateral coercive measures, including illegal sanctions, on the world economy, international trade, and the achievement of the sustainable development goals. Such measures undermine the UN Charter, the multilateral trading system, the sustainable development and environmental agreements. They also negatively impact economic growth, energy, health and food security exacerbating poverty and environmental challenges.”
Economic sanctions against Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia and Syria are forms of US warfare with the objective of regime change. “Deep concern” is less than a commitment to economic self-defence, including the right to support alternative trade and sanctions-busting measures in which all five of the targeted states are engaged, with tacit support from the nine BRICS member states as well as the thirteen newly confirmed partner states. Score for pompoms.

Paragraphs 11-12. “We reaffirm our commitment to maintaining a strong and effective Global Financial Safety Net with a quota-based and adequately resourced IMF at its center… We recognise the crucial role of BRICS in the process of improving the international monetary and financial system (IMFS), with a view to making it more responsive to the needs of all countries…We encourage our Finance Ministers and Central /National Bank Governors to continue this work.”
The IMF is not now and never has been, certainly not in Russia and the Ukraine, a financial safety net. It remains a tool of US economic warfare and regime change against target states in which the Yeltsin Administration was complicit. The BRICS consensus, led by President Putin and his Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, aims to preserve the IMF as a bank with Yeltsin-era objectives. Score for ragpicking by the oligarch faction in Moscow.

Paragraph 14: “We underscore the key role of the G20 as the premier global forum for multilateral economic and financial cooperation that provides a platform for dialogue of both developed and emerging economies on an equal and mutually beneficial footing for jointly seeking shared solutions to global challenges. We recognise the importance of the continued and productive functioning of the G20, based on consensus with a focus on result-oriented outcomes.”
This is an application by the BRICS members and partners to enjoy consensus with the US and the NATO and AUKUS members of the G20. This is an impossibility — a falsification of the politico-economic realities. Score for pompoms.

Paragraph 22: “We reiterate that the unilateral coercive measures, inter-alia in the form of unilateral economic sanctions and secondary sanctions that are contrary to international law, have far-reaching implications for the human rights, including the right to development, of the general population of targeted states, disproportionally affecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations. Therefore, we call for their elimination.”
See Paragraph 10 above – pompoms score again.

Paragraphs 29-30: “We call for urgent measures, in accordance with international law, to ensure the protection of lives. We reiterate our grave concern at the deterioration of the situation and humanitarian crisis in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, in particular the unprecedented escalation of violence in the Gaza Strip and in West Bank as a result of the Israeli military offensive, which led to mass killing and injury of civilians, forced displacement and widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure. We stress the urgent need for an immediate, comprehensive and permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages and detainees from both sides who are being illegally held captive and the unhindered sustainable and at scale supply of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, and cessation of all aggressive actions. We denounce the Israeli attacks… We acknowledge the provisional measures of the International Court of Justice in the legal proceedings instituted by South Africa against Israel.”
This is a strong attack on Israel and the closest the BRICS consensus comes to calling Israel to account for genocide as ruled by the International Court of Justice in January. It implies there was an international law right of self-defence on the part of Hamas in the offensive of October 7, 2023, and no right for Israel to conduct the Gaza genocide and the mass imprisonment of Palestinians on the West Bank. In his statements at the summit – in impromptu remarks after the plenary speech of Mahmoud Abbas and in his later press conference — Putin contradicted the BRICS consensus and the meaning of these paragraphs, telling the plenum that Israel’s genocide in Palestine is a “special situation”, then telling the press “we need to work with Israel, which, admittedly, still faced a terrorist attack last October… we must analyze the situation very calmly.” BRICS ragpickers score against Russian pompoms.

Paragraphs 32 and 34: “We express our concern over the increasing incidents of terrorist attacks linked with ICT capabilities. In this regard, we condemn the premeditated terrorist act of detonating handheld communication devices in Beirut on 17 September 2024…We stress that Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity must be strictly observed. We condemn illegal foreign military presence that lead to increasing risks of a large-scale conflict in the region. We emphasize that illegal unilateral sanctions seriously exacerbate the suffering of the Syrian people.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry avoided blaming Israel directly for the Beirut attack on September 17, instead quoting the Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah as saying so. “A comprehensive investigation of this crime is in order,” the Russian official statement said. “All those responsible must be held accountable. It is essential that this new act of terrorism is not swept under the carpet, as Western countries have been trying to do with regard to the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions. We call on all parties involved to exercise restraint and refrain from steps that threaten further destabilisation of the military and political situation in the Middle East.” This Russian position of September 17 appears to have been diluted in the Declaration of October 24. Pompoms score.

Russian anti-missile defences have not been used to defend Syria from Israeli attacks, including a bomb and missile attack close to the Russian airbase at Khmeimim on October 3. It is unclear whether Russian air defence batteries intercepted Israeli missiles fired at Tartus on October 8; if they did, this would be the first time. Ragpickers may have scored over pompoms.

Paragraph 36: “We recall national positions concerning the situation in and around Ukraine as expressed in the appropriate fora, including the UNSC and the UNGA. We emphasize that all states should act consistently with the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter in their entirety and interrelation. We note with appreciation relevant proposals of mediation and good offices, aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy.”
This is the only reference to the US-led alliance war against Russia in the Ukraine. It is an agreement by Russia to agree to disagree with the “national positions” of other BRICS members who were unwilling to agree to the stronger language the Russians had sought. Score pompoms.

Paragraphs 65-67: “We reiterate our commitment to enhancing financial cooperation within BRICS. We recognise the widespread benefits of faster, low cost, more efficient, transparent, safe and inclusive cross-border payment instruments built upon the principle of minimizing trade barriers and non-discriminatory access. We welcome the use of local currencies in financial transactions between BRICS countries and their trading partners. We encourage strengthening of correspondent banking networks within BRICS and enabling settlements in local currencies in line with BRICS Cross-Border Payments Initiative (BCBPI), which is voluntary and nonbinding, and look forward to further discussions in this area, including in the BRICS Payment Task Force. We acknowledge the importance of exploring the feasibility of connecting BRICS countries’ financial markets infrastructure. We agree to discuss and study the feasibility of establishment of an independent cross-border settlement and depositary infrastructure, BRICS Clear, an initiative to complement the existing financial market infrastructure, as well as BRICS independent reinsurance capacity, including BRICS (Re)Insurance Company, with participation on a voluntary basis. We task our Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, as appropriate, to continue consideration of the issue of local currencies, payment instruments and platforms and report back to us by the next Presidency.”
This is an acknowledgement that there remains little agreement to date among the BRICS members, especially China and India with Russia, on the means for replacing the SWIFT and other payment systems which the US is manipulating to wage direct and indirect economic war. The Declaration buries especially sharp concerns in India over the rupee-rouble trade. The Chinese have now almost cancelled yuan payments with Russia; they deal in US dollars. The Indians are more accommodating but the Russians less so. In Kazan the Indians and Chinese have made it clear that BRICS is nowhere near being an alternative to the Bretton Woods institutions.

A source in New Delhi adds: “as usual pro-Russia commentators in the West are gung-ho because they do not understand the nuance. They don’t need to. They will be right in a few years. The Financial Times and Wall Street Journal understand the nuance and know these issues will be resolved and in five years from now a full alternative to the US dollar will be in play. A new settlement system in which Africans and South Americans can sell their resources to markets ( BRICS plus), earn corrupt kickbacks ( Dubai), draw investment (China), technology ( India), and arms (Russia), and still send their children to Oxford and Cambridge is in the making.”

Agreement to continue negotiations is a score for the ragpickers over the cheerleaders.

Paragraph 83: “We reject unilateral, punitive and discriminatory protectionist measures, that are not in line with international law, under the pretext of environmental concerns…We also oppose unilateral protectionist measures, which deliberately disrupt the global supply and production chains and distort competition.”
This is a strike against the US, especially the former Trump and promised Trump administrations. Ragpickers score.

Paragraph 89: “ Recognising that environmental problems are posing increasing threat, causing huge damage to the economy and affecting the quality of life of our citizens…we encourage more active involvement of young people in environmental activities believing it is critical to increase environmental culture and knowledge among the population, primarily young people.”
Pompoms.

Paragraph 91: “We support the Kimberley Process as the sole global intergovernmental certification scheme, regulating trade in rough diamonds emphasising our commitment to preventing conflict diamonds from entering the markets and acknowledge the launch of the Informal BRICS Cooperation Platform with the participation of African diamond-mining nations to ensure free trade in rough diamonds and the sustainable development of the global diamond industry. We welcome the UAE’s efforts as chair of the Kimberly Process for 2024.”
This is a strike by India, Russia, South Africa, and the UAE as major diamond producers and processors against the efforts of the US, UK, and Belgium to destroy the Russian diamond trade. Ragpickers score.

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Source: https://johnhelmer.net/

Paragraphs 123 and 124: “We emphasize that all BRICS countries have rich traditional sport culture and agree to support each other in the promotion of traditional and indigenous sports among BRICS countries and around the world. We strongly oppose any form of discrimination on grounds of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion, economic or other status of athletes. We recognise the importance of joint BRICS sports events, meetings, conferences, seminars in the field of sports science and sports medicine. We attach great importance to the role of BRICS in developing sports ties among BRICS countries, including mass, youth, school and student sports, high priority sports, parasport, national and traditional sports. In this regard we highly appreciate Russia’s Chairship for hosting the BRICS Games in Kazan in June, which brought together participants in 27 sports disciplines.”
This is a strike against the politicization of the Olympic Games and of the World Anti Doping Agency (WADA) and the sanctions and boycotts which have resulted. Ragpickers score over pompoms.

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in a photo op before the start of the BRICS plenary session in Kazan on October 23.

There are five references to “national sovereignty and territorial integrity” in the Declaration: they refer to Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Afghanistan; they do not refer to the protracted conflict between China and India on the Himalayan frontier. A well-informed Indian source acknowledges that he views the direct talks in Kazan between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping, with Putin as mediator, will turn out to have “positive” results. “Putin has without doubt played the diplomat in this. No question. Modi and Xi fully trust him not to betray them. There is reluctance now to admit this, at least not for a while, but the timing suggests Putin played a role.”

The three-way talks at Kazan did not touch concretely on the demarcation of the Himalayan border. “The Indians and Chinese have held 21 rounds of talks at the level of military corps commanders, the most recent of them last February 24. Thus, it’s been delegated to the military to negotiate, confirm incursions and terms of conflict reduction. The foreign ministries then follow up with precise language. This year we have seen several high-level changes in the Chinese defense establishment which have perplexed the Indians. Evidently, some of it was internal Chinese power struggles. That seems to have played out now, and Xi is fully in control. He seems to have asserted his dominance. At the military and diplomatic levels, the two sides seem to have agreed to calm things down and return to the pre-2022 status quo ante.”

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Source: https://chinaglobalsouth.com

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Source: https://www.indiatoday.in/

The Indian source continued: “No detailed talk on the Himalayan border issue would have taken place between Xi and Modi. Inch on inch, there will be issues but that’s how it will be for a thousand years. You can’t resolve an undemarcated 3,800 km border fully and completely.”

“The Indian side should also understand that the Chinese were right to feel a threat that if Indians move into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) that would cut off the Karakoram Highway and the Chinese gateway to Gwadar and Arabian Sea. Indians will give no reassurance that they won’t hit Pakistan. If anything, the chances they will [move on the POK] are at an all-time high. But will the Indians take territory and choke off the highway? Perhaps assurance has been given that they won’t. If both have returned to frontier patrolling without guns, then it’s a huge achievement. By the way, no shots have been fired by either side in the past three years.”

https://johnhelmer.net/rag-picking-thro ... -brics-24/

I am imagining Pepe in a cheerleader outfit...

******

The times are a-changing and the BRICS Summit is a major factor

In its coverage of the BRICS Summit in Kazan this morning, the BBC World News broadcast featured a report on Vladimir Putin’s press conference at the conclusion of the Summit narrated by their Moscow bureau chief Steve Rosenberg.

The British, in particular, were compelled to pay attention to the proceedings in Kazan because, to their considerable embarrassment, BRICS had drawn the usual high-level statesmen away from their own gathering of Commonwealth heads of government that was opened yesterday by King Charles in Samoa. Several of the most visible and important invitees to Samoa, like President of South Africa Cyril Ramaphosa. had decided to skip an audience with the King and instead to join the court of Vladimir Putin this week.

Putin’s press conference was attended by 300 journalists, mostly foreign guests attached to the delegations of the more than 30 BRICS+ and “Outreach” countries in attendance. There was also a sprinkling of journalists from ‘unfriendly countries,’ of whom Rosenberg was the most prominent.

As a hint of what was to come, the Russian cameramen scanning the audience more than once paused to direct their cameras at Rosenberg. And then when the Q&A was underway, Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov instructed his assistants to pass the microphone to Rosenberg, given that he had become such a ‘rare guest’ these days.

It was clear at once that both Putin and Rosenberg were well prepared for what followed.

If the Pentagon and Russian Ministry of Defense can discreetly communicate to avoid catastrophic escalation of hostilities between their respective proteges in the Middle East, as indeed seemed to be the case in the past week, then why should Dmitry Peskov not have invited Rosenberg to speak on condition that he reveal in advance what he would be asking?

You can watch the exchange on this BBC podcast:

https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c9vn8z2 ... 9485411930
What is most striking is that the podcast captures not only what Rosenberg asked but also captures most of what Vladimir Putin said in return. This must have been painful to the ears of the Russophobes in London. Here again logic dictates that this was part of a pre-arranged deal. I offer this as a straw in the wind, a herald of the possible return of common sense in Western capitals one of these days.

Rosenberg had a double question to pose. In the first he made reference to principles adopted by the Summit leaders and set out in their Kazan Declaration, and also to what he called Russia’s ‘slogan,’ namely that it stands for ‘justice, stability and security.’ Said Rosenberg, how does this square with Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine? And as for security, isn’t Russia now experiencing drone attacks on its cities, which never happened before the war in Ukraine?

Rosenberg’s second question requested that Putin comment on MI5 reports that his country is behind the chaos that has broken out in cities across Europe.

Vladimir Putin gave a lengthy answer to the first question, which I will describe here only in part lest this essay become tedious.

Said Putin, the security situation of Russia was far worse before the start of the Special Military Situation than it is now, because the country saw its sovereignty under attack from the West, and without full sovereignty Russia cannot exist as a nation state. Russia was being pushed into what was deemed to be its proper place, as a supplier of raw materials on others’ terms. The West lied to his face with respect to there being no expansion of NATO to the East. As for ‘justice,’ the West staged a coup d’etat in Kiev in 2014 that violated all international laws. It then prepared Ukraine as a base for military operations against Russia. The Minsk agreements were used to buy time to build the Ukrainian forces. What justice was there in the West’s flouting the principle of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe whereby the security of one nation cannot be built at the expense of the security of another?

As for the violent demonstrations that have broken out in cities across Europe, the blame lies with the leadership of those countries whose misguided policies, especially their prohibition on purchase of cheap Russian gas and its substitution by very dear American LNG has caused severe domestic economic problems and a falling standard of living. This is what is behind the demonstrations.

The BBC podcast presents a bit more of this riposte from Putin. His full response is available on numerous youtube videos via their search box.

It bears mention that Putin also took a couple of questions from another hostile Western broadcaster. NBC’s Keir Simmons was given the microphone to ask about the rumored threat by Donald Trump in a phone conversation with the Russian President that he was ready to order a missile strike on the center of Moscow. Putin said that he had no recollection of such a conversation and he redirected the discussion to time present, noting that Trump has been saying he will act to put an end to the war in Ukraine, and that Russia welcomes such initiatives from all those who propose them. Simmons’ second question was of greater general interest: he alluded to intelligence reports that there are photos showing that North Korean soldiers are now being deployed in Russia to fight on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Putin did not confirm or deny the reports of North Koreans being brought in to fight. Instead, he made reference to Article 4 of the comprehensive partnership treaty that he had signed during his visit to Pyongyang this spring and which the State Duma had just ratified. Article 4, per Putin provides that each signatory must provide assistance to its counterpart should it be subjected to aggression from third parties. Since the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk constitutes an act of aggression, the provisions of the treaty are being implemented.

This last exchange alone ensured that the press conference would receive front page coverage in Western mainstream today.

(More at link.)

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/10/25/ ... or-factor/

Of course Russia must say "...Russia welcomes such initiatives from all those who propose them." Diplomatic, those Russians...But I think this will be settled on the field. Trump is a world class blowhard and everybody but Americans know it.

******

Jimmy Dore: Former CIA Director Admits U.S. Russia Policy Has FAILED When Tricked By Prank Callers!
October 25, 2024 natyliesb



https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/10/jim ... k-callers/

******

One of the Rusnano companies stole 13 billion rubles under Chubais
October 25, 20:07

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FSB accuses company founded by Rusnano of embezzling over 13 billion rubles

The company Plastic Logic, which was founded by Rusnano in 2010, stole more than 13 billion rubles during the creation of a Russian tablet, the FSB press service told Kommersant. According to the special service, the company transferred the money allocated for development to foreign jurisdictions. Former CEO of Plastic Logic Boris Galkin was arrested in June.

According to Kommersant, a criminal case against Boris Galkin was opened on April 21, 2023, under the article on fraud on a large scale (Part 4 of Article 159 of the Criminal Code). Later, the proceedings were reclassified under Part 4 of Article 160 of the Criminal Code (embezzlement on an especially large scale). Rusnano was recognized as the injured party. At that time, the amount of funds was not disclosed.

The FSB's report today states that the case concerns the theft of 13 billion rubles allocated by Rusnano to the company Plastin Logic for the implementation of the innovative project "Organization of the production of displays and other devices using the technology of new-generation plastic electronics." As part of this project, tablets for schoolchildren were developed, which Anatoly Chubais, who headed Rusnano at the time, presented to Vladimir Putin in 2011.

The investigation indicates that Plastic Logic did not have sufficient capacity and qualified personnel to create such a production facility. The funds allocated by Rusnano were transferred to foreign jurisdictions.

Boris Galkin was detained on June 4, and the next day the Meshchansky Court remanded him in custody, Kommersant's sources report. The former CEO came to the police station himself, at the request of FSB operatives. Galkin's defense claims that there is no evidence in the case of his client's involvement in the embezzlement. The lawyer asked for house arrest, since the investigation of crimes committed during business activities does not require placing the suspect in a pretrial detention center.

https://news.mail.ru/incident/63364917/ - zinc

No one had any idea that they could steal at Rusnano and related companies. Especially under Chubais.
As for the statements about Chubais's possible extradition, of course he will not return to Russia, especially under the current situation.
He should have been arrested when he was still in Russia, and not when he fled to Israel.

The fact that they finally took on this cesspool is good. It's bad that it's so late.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9459225.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Sun Oct 27, 2024 8:39 pm

('Near Abroad edition)

Georgia chose peace
October 27, 11:10

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On the elections in Georgia.

1. According to the results of the counting, the "Georgian Dream" gains 54.2% of the votes. Western exit polls turned out to be banal fakes.

2. Attempts to disrupt the elections by stuffing ballots have generally failed.

3. Following Orban, Aliyev also congratulated Kobakhidze on his victory.

4. The new parliament will begin its work even if the French granny continues to deny the election results.

5. The opposition is going to start protests in major cities of Georgia today against the incorrect election results.

6. In general, Georgia chose peace, not war. Now they will try to steal this choice.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9461946.html

Google Translator

******

On the victory of the Georgian Dream in the elections
October 27, 2024
Rybar

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Today, the Central Election Commission of Georgia announced the final results of the parliamentary elections, where the ruling party "Georgian Dream" won the majority. The opposition coalition received only 37.5% of the votes in total.

The opposition bloc unanimously refused to recognize the results of the vote, calling them falsified and not reflecting the will of the Georgian people. All four parties in the alliance spoke out about this.

The opposition has announced demonstrations involving its supporters. At the same time, politicians intend to boycott the new parliament, and President Salome Zurabishvili is holding a meeting with leaders of opposition parties.

These elections can be considered a great example of the will of the people against Moldova. Georgians tasted life with a developing economy and improving conditions under the "Georgian Dream".

The only thing the opposition could offer was an unknown future with constant “breakfasts” about joining the European Union, as well as the possible involvement of Georgia in a direct conflict with Russia.

Therefore, there will certainly be protests, the opposition will do everything in its power to get out of this, but it will lead to nothing. If nothing came of it in the spring, then why did the pro-Western politicians decide that it will now.

https://rybar.ru/o-pobede-gruzinskoj-mechty-na-vyborah/

On the nationalist party "Milliy Tiklanish" in the elections in Uzbekistan
October 27, 2024
Rybar

Today, parliamentary elections began in Uzbekistan. All five leading political parties have been admitted to them: the ruling Liberal Democrats ( UzLiDeP ), People's Democrats ( NDPU ), Social Democrats ( Adolat ), Environmentalists ( EPU ) and DPMT .

The latter, the nationalist Milliy Tiklanish, announced in its election program that it would “ fight for the development of the economic sphere through national values ​​along with the careful preservation of historical and cultural heritage.”

📌The party was remembered during the campaign for its fresh initiatives to punish officials for not using the Uzbek language, banning “Soviet ideology,” and its leader Alisher Kadirov even managed to make a statement to the Russian Foreign Ministry, recommending that it mind its own business.

🔻Apparently, the latest aggravation between Tashkent and Moscow has indirectly affected domestic Uzbek politics. The role of the party as a Russophobic lightning rod turned out to be more important than Turkic unity, as we wrote earlier.

But at the same time, it is an admission that the party’s current agenda is too toxic for unification with the ruling Liberal Democrats, which means that Russia has room to maneuver in its relations with Uzbekistan.

https://rybar.ru/o-naczionalisticheskoj ... bekistane/

Google Translator

******

US Black Sea Strategy Takes Another Big Hit in Georgia Election
Posted on October 27, 2024 by Conor Gallagher

In the New Cold War, elections around the world are now viewed in the West as existential battles between good and evil, between the West’s “freedom” and the “authoritarianism” of Moscow and Beijing.

So it was in Georgia, the small Caucasus country that held parliamentary elections yesterday.

Ahead of the vote the US and EU threatened to slam the door on the country’s westward path and impose sanctions, they shrieked about free and fair elections, and their spooks came out of the woodwork to encourage Georgia to choose the West. One of my favorites was a piece from Gary Schmitt, a resident scholar in strategic studies and American institutions at the American Enterprise Institute, and Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA’s Directorate of Operations who is now a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. They wrote a hyperventilating piece titled “Losing Georgia to Putin” that included the following:

Like the Baltic republics, a democratic Georgia that freely rejects Moscow’s dominion serves as an icon for how a formerly Soviet people can become more humane and prosperous. Stunningly beautiful and wine-rich, stubbornly Christian but religiously tolerant, and sandwiched between Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan, and the Black Sea, Georgia has historically had an outsized influence on the region.

Yes, Georgia has wine exports (which happen to rely on the Russian market). It also counts Armenia as a neighbor, a curious omission seeing as the US and its vassals in the EU are increasingly present there but would be effectively cut off by a pro-Moscow Georgia.

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There were five main parties competing in the election, and all but Georgia Dream favored a Western path for the country. Georgia Dream is currently winning handily. With 99.646% of ballots counted, the ruling Georgian Dream is winning with 54.2%. The other pro-West parties totals:

Coalition for Change – 10.8%
Unity – National Movement – 10%
Strong Georgia – 8.8%
Gakharia – For Georgia – 3%

Predictably, the opposition is refusing to accept the results and are calling for demonstrations. We’ll have to wait and see how far that takes them.


🇬🇪 The Georgian opposition announces mass protests.
The date, time, and location will be determined after coalition negotiations and the closing of all polling stations. President Salome Zourabichvili has stated that attempts are being made to falsify the elections in the…

— CaucasusWatch (@Caucasus_Watch) October 26, 2024


The fear mongering over a Georgia Dream-led end to democracy has been amped up for months now ever since it passed a foreign agents law in the spring. That law requires NGOs and media outlets that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as such with the government.

Since the 1990s, Western NGOs have played a huge role in Georgia, often filling the space that state capacity would, and it gave the Americans and Europeans sway over the country. The reporting requirement for foreign-funded groups makes it harder for US- and EU-backed organizations to affect votes or inconspicuously cook up color revolution attempts. In the runup to the vote, searches conducted by the Ministry’s Investigation Service related to “fraudulent call centers” and money laundering included two employees of the American think-tank Atlantic Council and an American outsourcing company Concentrix.

In the spring tens of thousands of Georgians protested in Tbilisi against the law—the first big step toward dictatorship they claimed. The party overruled a veto from the largely ceremonial president to pass the law. Since then, she has helped lead the charge against the ruling government:


I present the “Georgian Charter” action plan!

To rebuild trust, we need a new political reality: a distinct unity, different elections, a different parliament, and a different government! #GeorgianCharter

🔗https://t.co/9GplSRhb5U pic.twitter.com/XJ5I0NboDU

— Salome Zourabichvili (@Zourabichvili_S) May 27, 2024


A quick note about that president, the Paris-born Salome Zourabichvili. She enjoyed a thirty-year career in French spookish positions, including as second adviser to the French Embassy in Chad during the Paris-backed coup led by Idriss Déby. She was also director of International and Strategic Affairs at the General Secretariat of National Defense and worked with the Bureau of Strategic Affairs of NATO. From 2003 to 2004 she was French ambassador to Georgia and then moved seamlessly into the spot of Georgian Minister of Foreign Affairs after being appointed by former President Mikhail Saakashvili, the guy who led Georgia into a disastrous 2008 war against Russia. Zourabichvili has been involved in Georgian politics ever since.

Zourabichvili stated ahead of the vote that she rules out any outcome from the elections other than the victory of pro-European forces. The US and EU have been issuing threats to Georgia ever since the foreign agents law passed in the spring.

The West doesn’t have much to offer aside from EU membership. Brussels gave Georgia “candidate status” in December 2023 but that was effectively put on hold after the foreign agents law passed. EU officials will, however, likely slap sanctions on the Georgian Dream leaders — as will the US.

More measures were working their way through the US Congress with the threat of passage looming over yesterday’s vote.


War criminal Putin should not be allowed to shape future of Georgia says @RepJoeWilson the author of MEGOBARI act in US Congress pic.twitter.com/FnveOENCra

— Formula NEWS | English (@FormulaGe) July 12, 2024



Over the summer the Biden administration imposed visa restrictions against dozens of Georgian officials, suspended $95 million in aid to Georgia, and let it be known that it had prepared a package of sanctions just in case.


This bill is a declaration of war against Georgia. https://t.co/7WeT6OkObd

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— Sopo Japaridze (@sopjap) May 25, 2024



On October 23 U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan regurgitated the usual talking points about free and fair elections, but with the US and EU stick-heavy approach it’s fair to wonder just how free the vote was, and yet Georgia Dream still won going away.

Georgia Dream

While Georgia Dream might be the target of Western strong arming, it’s also no group of saints.

Some observers believed that the party might have overstepped with promises to ban most of the opposition should it win a constitutional majority and it would be hurt at the polls. The party’s stated justifications for such a ban include allegations that the opposition wants to use Georgia “open the second front” against Russia, as well as its assault on “family values” through “pseudo-liberal ideology” like the legalization of sex-change surgery, the legalization of other so-called genders beyond female and male.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, one of the richest men in Georgia, bankrolls the party and acts as one of its figureheads and its chief loose cannon. He has continued to talk about political bans while referring to parts of the opposition as Nazis, a tumor that must be cut out, and a plague.

Segments of the opposition, according to Ivanishvili, are part of the “global party of war” who want to use Georgia against Russia. That would hardly be surprising, but Ivanishvili and company have been making this claim for some time, although the evidence is yet to be unveiled.

Georgia Dream wasn’t always at odds with the West. Like the US and EU, it follows neoliberal ideology, and it had largely followed the EU-NATO path since coming to power in 2012 — and even today party members say they would like to pursue EU membership and NATO cooperation but on their own sovereign terms.

The party took steps to increase Gerogia’s sovereignty in recent years, however. In 2021, it ended the U.S. training program for Georgia’s military. And the big one came earlier this year with the aforementioned foreign agents law.

Ukraine helped change the calculus. Party members speak frequently about how NATO membership has been dangled in front of Ukraine, and the entire debacle for Kiev has also made pursuit of membership in Western blocs less attractive.

Viewed in this light, it’s unsurprising that Georgia Dream performed so well in yesterday’s election. Like most voters everywhere, Georgians just want peace and a decent paycheck. Here’s a report from RFA/RL in early October acknowledging that fact while admitting that the opposition hardly campaigned outside a few urban areas. The US loves itself a lesser of two evils election, but that type of proposition increasingly favors the East in the New Cold War.

The fact that the EU economy is struggling while Russia’s is on the upswing means Georgians are reckoning with long held beliefs that the EU and West in general is the key to unlocking a better future. At the same time, the opposition to everything Russian comes across as heavy handed. A fair amount of Georgians have fond memories of the economic stability of the Soviet era. Nowadays that’s branded as Russian disinfo by the pro-west crowd.

Russia is one of the country’s top trading partners and turnover has been steadily increasing.

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Georgia’s trade with Russia, China, and regional partners dwarfs the economic ties with the EU and US. At the same time, the war in Ukraine makes Georgia a more attractive transit country. And that means alarm bells are likely going off in situation rooms in DC right now.

Georgia and the US Black Sea Strategy

Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien made clear in a July Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation hearing what the US’ real problems with Georgia are:

Two things. One is it should be clear to the governing party in Georgia that there is a path back, that having free and fair elections without violence against civil society, making whatever transparency requirements they want. This Foreign Agent Law, make it compatible with EU law rather than compatible with Russian law, and not have China develop a deep water port in Anaklia. These are steps that are really important for Georgia to take.

Here seems like a good point to note that the US has its own Foreign Agents Registration Act, and that Georgia’s law does not mean that these NGOs cannot operate; they just must register. But Washington wants to be able funnel unlimited amounts of dark money into the country to steer its politics.

There is a little more detail to O’Brien’s second point on the Chinese port. The US, of course, is not offering to build a port in China’s place. O’Brien does not mention that the state-backed Chinese consortium selected to build Georgia’s deep sea port submitted the sole bid. There was a past effort to build it that involved the US, but that didn’t go well. Here’s some background from RFE/RL:

A previous attempt to build the port in Anaklia by a consortium formed between Georgia’s TBC Bank and U.S.-based Conti International was canceled by the government in 2020 after years of political controversy that saw TBC co-founders Mamuka Khazaradze and Badri Japaridze facing money-laundering charges.

Following the charges, the American investor pulled out and the project ground to a halt until the government canceled the $2.5 billion port contract.

Georgia already has Black Sea ports in close proximity to Ochamchire which are currently serving as connecting links between Europe and wider areas of Central Asia, which includes a range of countries stretching from the South Caucasus to China’s western Xinjiang region. While it’s unlikely the Middle Corridor becomes a major route connecting China and Europe due to significant geographic, political, economic issues that make it difficult to match other maritime or land-based transportation options, it’s still a big deal for Georgia and the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. As of now Georgia is the only route to the Black Sea that makes sense — unless progress is made on the Zangezur Corridor through southern Armenia.

While Chinese influence in Georgia might take a hit due to yesterday’s election, its influence in the Caucasus is growing. Azerbaijan is strategically the most important country in the region due its fossil fuel wealth. Baku and Beijing signed a Joint Declaration on establishing a strategic partnership at this year’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. The economic components of that agreement focused on cooperation in oil and gas production and transport infrastructure — i.e., continuing their pursuit of connectivity through the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route. It could also mean more competition for dwindling EU energy suppliers.

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The Chinese are also working on major highway projects in Georgia. Sometimes it seems the US doesn’t want to see anything built at all. It does, however, want to control. In this case that means the current rickety routes connecting central Asia and its vast resources of energy, metals, coal, and cotton to Europe and subsea power cables connecting South Caucasus energy to the EU. What gives the US an advantage — if we want to call it that — is that by operating so far from home it can play recklessly. While there are US business interests in the region and Washington would prefer to control more, it’s more damaging for Russia and China if a country there goes up in flames. That’s probably why we’re seeing Russia branch out and assist in the degradation of Western “assets” in Africa and the Middle East, but that’s a story for another day.

The US strategy is similar to hostage taking. It would like to control but the fallback option if its demands aren’t met is destruction. The 2008 Georgia-Russia war was a disaster for Georgia, but it did achieve US goals of poisoning ties between the two countries for more than a decade until Georgia Dream recently sought to repair them. We’ll now likely see how much chaos the western-backed NGOs can organize in the country or if the foreign agents law passed earlier this year had its desired effect.

The US is also opposed to the Russian military base plans in Abkhazia, but there’s little Georgia can do there as Russia recognized Abkhazia as independent and stationed troops there following the war. Russia is also helping with the reconstruction of the Abkhaz railway system, which could enhance Moscow’s connections to the Middle East and help to solidify Caucasus corridors that bypass Western-controlled routes — but that now looks unlikely in the immediate future with yesterday’s results.

Construction of a permanent Russian naval base in Ochamchire, Abkhazia, is also underway roughly 18 miles (30km) from the planned Chinese-operated deep-sea port in Anaklia.

The US National Security Council (NSC) is currently working to formalize a Black Sea security and development strategy across government agencies, but the current National Defense Authorization Act already outlines several pillars of that strategy that can effectively be boiled down to “keep Russia and China out and the US and NATO in.”

What that envisions is an arc of “rules-based order” states from the Caspian to the Adriatic that would allow the US to exercise control over the movement of energy and goods through the region, and especially in the South Caucasus, which is positioned at the intersection of burgeoning East-West and North-South transport corridors. It’s one part of the US bid for global dominance, which seeks to control key maritime corridors and choke points. Russia, China, and others are naturally seeking to utilize other routes or develop them as backup options in the case of isolations directed against them. And the US is trying to close those down by whatever means necessary.

As Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien put it before the recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee subcommittee hearing “The Future of Europe”:

[We are] are working to foster deeper cooperation among the Black Sea states. But there remain challenges to democracy in some quarters, where backsliding is a significant concern. We must maintain our focus on countries like Georgia, working with like minded partners to promote measures that strengthen democracy and incentivize a return by these governments to a Euro-Atlantic path. In Russia’s periphery, we seek to help those countries that have struggled between the pull of EU accession and the pressure of Russia’s autocracy, and work with those leaders to get them out of the ‘grey zone’ and into western-style democracies. We are building a path for countries in the Western Balkans, Moldova, and the Caucasus independent of malign influence from the PRC and Russia. Some elites in that periphery are bucking against making the hard reforms needed to join the EU and NATO. We must work together to ensure those reforms are done.

That strategy just took another big hit.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10 ... ction.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Wed Oct 30, 2024 3:44 pm

(Views from the upper middle class....)

St Petersburg Travel Notes: installment one

Greetings from sunny and seasonably chilly St Petersburg, where the trees have just begun seriously shedding their leaves, running just a bit ahead of the old Slavic name for the month coming onstage at the end of this week, listopad (falling leaves). The sun may be up and about for less than eight hours on twenty-four, but its strength is still there – enough to turn the windowed balcony on our pied-à- terre apartment into a fine clothes dryer.

Russia today has a highly centralized political life, as it always did, and the market may be less free and more controlled by the powers that be, but this is certainly not a period of stagnation. On the contrary, the market is bursting at the seams from dynamism. Unemployment, per the figures Vladimir Putin issued in a speech yesterday, stands at a record low of 2.5%, and by his tally, growth of GDP is flirting with 4% by year’s end, a shade below China but well ahead of all countries of the Collective West:

In the two neighborhood supermarkets that I shopped in this morning, one Economy Class and the other Premium Class, the outstanding feature was churn. With the appearance of new products made in Russia, like the burgeoning assortment of home grown hard cheeses, and with the replacement of well known Western branded consumables by new owners of the manufacturing facilities left behind by the departed Western industrialists, it is not always easy to gauge inflation in the grocery basket. An example of semi-rebranding intended to retain loyal customers, is the Activia yoghurts that carried the Danone logotype till the French company sold its property rights here several months ago; now the packaging is almost identical except for the Danone logo. This is what you see progressively across many different product groups. I have seen it remotely when watching the latest television ads for what was Kentucky Fried Chicken and now is called Rostics, an independently owned, Russian registered fast food mega-operator that has been around since the 1990s.

When you look at non-branded foods like fresh fish and fruits or vegetables, there does not seem to me to be any appreciable inflation from my last visit four months ago. Flounder caught in the Russian North may have become even cheaper, selling today for just 3.5 euros/kg, that is four times cheaper than in Brussels. Turkish sea bass is still just 10 euros/kg, 50% below Belgian prices. But rainbow trout steaks from fish grown in the waters of Russian Karelia have gone up in price to 20 euros/kg, on a par with what you will find in Belgium for a product bearing the same name (though the quality in Brussels is lower).

Looking at processed meats, in particular cured sausages, the market entries continue to change and an element of cat and mouse is going on between producers and consumers. The content labeling is so miniscule that you need a microscope, not a simple magnifying glass to understand what you are buying. Can it be that the fat content of that salami is really 41%? Most likely, it is. And did they really mix poultry into the meat mix? You will never know if you trust your unaided eyes. However, that kind of deception is old hat compared to what I discovered on a package of hot dogs from a new producer on our supermarket shelves: the plastic wrapping has a hint on one corner: “list of contents is inside”! This marks a new level of cheekiness and flouting of consumer protection laws that require transparency.

I am not a complainer, just an observer. On the positive side, most all Russian plastic tubs containing pickles, spreads, soups, or what not have a little tab on the lid that you pull down, so that when it detaches you have a grip by which to lever open the lid. In Belgium this common sense packaging does not exist. Very often we have to smash the lid with a carving knife to get to the product inside.

If I may move out of the stores and share an impression of what folks here are driving now, it bears mention that out of the four taxis I rode around town today, three were spanking new Chinese cars, each from a different manufacturer, and one was an old, indeed very old Ford whose owner knows he cannot replace it today with something from the West. Those Chinese autos were all very comfortable, though that is not why the Chinese are making ever greater inroads into the Russian market. The reason is politics, of course.

*****

So where else is politics in today’s report you may ask? Here it is: the subject is what goes on at the Estonian-Russian border at Narva, the main crossing point for passenger traffic which I happened to use last night to enter the country on my way to Petersburg, just as I did on my last visit four months ago.

The choice of Narva, Estonia was not arbitrary. When Finland closed its borders to Russia more than a year ago, Estonia remained the only EU country having a common land border with Russia that allowed passengers through in both directions.

The status of the Narva crossing is also a moving target. I say this as I respond here to readers who have asked me by email or otherwise what is the best way to travel to Russia now that Mr. Putin’s government has truly eased visa issuance.

The relatively humane gesture of the Estonian authorities in keeping open the border crossing was, one might say, a favor to its own dual nationality citizens seeking to visit relatives in Russia. Third country nationals were also beneficiaries of this largesse. But it had its limitations: the bridge over the Narva separating the two countries was closed to vehicular traffic nine months or so ago. Individual passengers must disembark on one end, make the 600 meter crossing through no-man’s land on foot with all their baggage, kids in strollers, ets, and then board another bus on the other side to continue their journey.

On my last trip, it was the Russians who made life difficult for the visitors in both directions. They worked slowly and lines of 45 minutes or longer formed at their post both for those entering and for those leaving. However, this time the Estonians were taking the initiative and worked their mischief on those leaving the EU for Russia. They imposed full customs inspection of every bit of luggage, as well as of the purse or wallet of every traveler to count your banknotes, with the result that we found late in the afternoon yesterday: a huddled mass of perhaps 100 travelers was waiting in the cold (5 degrees Celsius) for more than 3 hours to be admitted inside the Estonian passport control and customs building.

It was a good thing that the weather was dry and not rainy, though I doubt any kindness would be shown even if the skies showered these huddled travelers with a deluge.

That this was cruel is beyond discussion. At the same time I note that when we were inspected the customs officials were not unpleasant and told us they were just doing their job. Following orders. This was clearly a political decision taken from on high to make travel to Russia as miserable as possible.

Still things could get worse. The border crossing may be closed once and for all in the new year. This I heard from the taxi driver who drove us onward to Petersburg.

Taken as an official procedure, these customs inspections for people departing the EU make no sense. And what right do the Estonian passport officers have to ask those leaving how long they intend to be away and what they will be doing? This is pure harassment.

You may wonder why I fuss about this relatively minor nastiness. The answer is that it is just the tip of an iceberg of hate and barbarism in the mind set of those who ordered these little guys in the customs office to ‘do their job’. For that to be clear, I share with you the remarks of our (ethnic Russian) taxi driver who took us from the Tallinn airport to the city bus terminal.

I congratulated him on his good fortune that the country’s highest Russia-hater has shipped out to Brussels to take over the portfolio of foreign affairs and defense commissioner under Ursula von der Leyen. He remarked in response: but some of our senior military officers said publicly a week ago that a preemptive (nuclear) strike should be made against Russia. And there you have it: these charming Estonian elites, like their fellow Baltic elites in neighboring Latvia and Lithuania ,would happily be doing to Russians what the Israelis are doing to Gaza Palestinians if only they had the necessary materiel means. Happily they don’t have the materiel means and never will, NATO or no NATO.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/10/29/ ... lment-one/

******

"The Wizard of the Emerald City"
October 30, 17:11

Image

Trailer for the new Russian film adaptation of the classic fairy tale "The Wizard of the Emerald City".

(Video at link. Check it out, looks very good and very Russian.)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9468751.html

"A bunch of Russian trolls"
October 29, 21:06

Image

"A Bunch of Russian Trolls." Linus Torvalds Shows His Face - He Hates Russians and Supports Their Expulsion from Linux Developers

Linus Torvalds has shown his attitude towards Russians and Russian programmers, calling them "Russian trolls". The day before, 11 Russian specialists were expelled from the Linux developer community, and Torvalds fully supported this, stating that the decision will not be reversed.
Linux creator Linus Torvalds has openly stated that he fully supports the removal of Russians from work on the Linux kernel. The day before, as reported by CNews, 11 specialists with Russian roots were excommunicated from this work on the project, but it was not Torvalds himself who did this, but one of the largest Linux maintainers, who replaced Torvalds six years ago as the head of the community.
Commenting on what happened, Torvalds, a native of Finland and a US citizen, did not mince words at all. He called the 11 Russians who can no longer work on Linux literally “lots of Russian trolls” and added that the decision to exclude them from the community will not be reversed.
Torvalds has previously made harsh statements about programmers from various countries, saying, for example, that they have “shit-for-brains” or scolding them for being too literate. But this is the first time in many years that Torvalds has openly stated his dislike for specialists from Russia.

What Torvalds said

The creator of Linux clearly and distinctly stated his position on both the Russian participants of the Linux community and how they were treated. “Okay, a bunch of Russian trolls are out. It is completely obvious why this change was made, and it will not be reversed,” he said.
But Torvalds did not stop there. "Using a few random anonymous accounts to try to 'plant' it via Russian troll factories won't do anything. And for the information of truly innocent bystanders who aren't troll factory accounts, these 'various compliance requirements' don't just apply to the US."

"Various compliance requirements" is the reason 11 Russians were suspended from working on Linux. The community's top brass hasn't said anything more specific yet.
Torvalds concluded his statement with the following comment: "I'm Finnish. You thought I would *support* Russian aggression? Apparently, it's not just the lack of real news, but also the lack of knowledge of history."
In this case, it's completely unclear how Torvalds' nationality, world history, and the fact that he openly supports the removal of Russian citizens from the FOSS community who hold a mouse and keyboard, not a gun, are connected.

By the time the material was published, 11 Russians had been removed from working on Linux with Torvalds's not-so-tacit consent. But neither Linus himself nor his assistant Greg Kroah-Hartman, a US citizen and one of the key Linux developers who initiated the removal, said that this would be the limit. In other words, the likelihood that the persecution of Russian FOSS developers in the Linux community will continue is off the charts.

It is also important to understand that among these 11 people there are employees of large Russian IT companies. First and foremost, this includes the developer of the Aurora OS, Rostelecom-owned Open Mobile Platforms.

The list also includes employees of SberDevices, a company that produces smart gadgets for Sberbank, NetUp (provides solutions and services for communications providers), and Metrotek, a manufacturer of control and measuring devices, telecom equipment, and electronics. Along with them, the door was shown to an employee of Moscow State University.


https://www.cnews.ru/news/top/2024-10-2 ... ih_trollej - zinc

When I read about this a couple of days ago, I smiled to myself, as I remembered the stories about the need to switch from the corrupt corporate Windows to the free and democratic Linux.
Here again, there is the problem of dependence on Western software and Western digital infrastructure. Which the West takes advantage of, using such dependencies where possible.
In the case of operating systems, this problem will be with us for a long time.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9467373.html

Google Translator

******

Duda Claimed That Georgia’s Pro-Western President Has No Evidence Of Russian Meddling

Andrew Korybko
Oct 30, 2024

Image

Polish President Andrzej Duda can’t be smeared as a “Russian agent” by any stretch of the imagination or suspected of even being remotely sympathetic to that country after all that he’s done to help Ukraine fight against it since 2022.

French-born President of Georgia Salome Zourabichvili, who also used to be the French Ambassador to Tbilisi, accused Russia of conducting a “special operation” after the ruling Georgian Dream party with whom she’s feuding won a majority during last weekend’s parliamentary elections. This figurehead leader then called on her people to protest, which can be considered a punitive Color Revolution for her opponents’ refusal to sanction Russia and open a second military front against it in the South Caucasus.

Her Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda, who by no stretch of the imagination can be smeared as a “Russian agent” or suspected of even being remotely sympathetic to that country after all that he’s done to help Ukraine fight against it since 2022, just dropped a bombshell that completely discredits her narrative. Here’s what he told Radio Zet that they talked about last month and on Monday as translated into English from his remarks that were published in Polish on that outlet’s website:

“We talked about the general political situation and she outlined to me that Georgian Dream will probably win, but there is no indication that it will gain such an advantage that will allow them to govern on their own. The result that is being announced clearly contradicts what the president told me [last month]…(And during our latest talk,) The president did not say clearly [that Russia meddled], because there is no clear evidence for this, but let's say that [Georgian Dream are] in a sense pro-Russian forces.”

Poland co-founded the EU’s Eastern Partnership in 2009 that was employed by the bloc to expand its influence in the remaining six former Soviet Republics in Europe besides Russia that had yet to join. It therefore considers itself to be a regional leader whose top representatives’ positions on newsworthy events in those countries are authoritative. Although he supported Zourabichvili’s call for an international inquiry, his contradiction of her claims about Russian meddling is thus very significant.

He could have lied about what they discussed a month ago and on Monday, not to mention leaving out how she lacks any evidence to back up her claim of Russian meddling during last weekend’s polls, yet he told the truth to his credit and consequently complicated the West’s narrative. Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, who represents Duda’s party’s rival in Poland’s complex political set-up after last fall’s elections, swiftly rebuked him in a similar manner as he did in spring when Duda talked about hosting US nukes.

Just like back then, Sikorski reminded Duda that “Foreign policy is conducted by the Council of Ministers, so before making a decision on a possible trip to Georgia, President Duda should familiarize himself with the government's position on this matter.” This was in response to Duda telling Radio Zet that he considers it his “duty” in travel to Georgia “if there is a situation where it will be necessary”. The message is that Duda should stop sharing foreign policy opinions that contradict the aforesaid Council’s.

With that in mind, Duda was either uninformed of the Council’s position when he shared what he discussed with Zourabichvili or he subverted it, both possibilities of which are plausible but speculation about this is moot since the indisputable outcome is that he completely discredited her narrative. It could also be that he was aware of the OSCE’s preliminary election observation report and naively assumed that the Council would go along with it since they hitherto relied on the group for guidance.

To be clear, Poland hasn’t claimed at the time of writing that Russia meddled in the elections, but Sikorski’s rebuke of Duda after he spilled the beans about his two recent conversations with Zourabichvili suggests that the Council is displeased with him for disclosing those sensitive details. Poland’s ruling coalition, which doesn’t include Duda’s party, might want to keep its options open for now and appears reluctant to endorse her meddling claims due to the OSCE’s politically inconvenient report.

Instead of confirming Zourabichvili’s fraud and meddling accusations like she assumed they would, they only shared some minor criticisms like they do with practically every election they observe, and they also surprisingly had some very positive things to say about the electoral process. This includes writing that “the legal framework provides an adequate basis for conducting democratic elections” and “Election day was generally procedurally well-organized and administered in an orderly manner”.

They also noted that “The initial phase of processing results protocols and election materials by [District Election Commissions], observed in all 73 electoral districts, was generally positively assessed.” Nevertheless, because of the OSCE’s minor criticisms and the disproportionate attention that the West paid to Zourabichvili’s scandalous accusations, Georgian election officials announced that they’ll recount ballots at five randomly selected polling stations in each voting district to confirm the polls’ legitimacy.

Considering the OSCE’s politically inconvenient report, Duda’s revelations about what he recently discussed with Zourabichvili, and the ongoing random recount that’ll dispel all reasonable doubt about the results once it’s done, there’s no reason to lend credence to Zourabichvili’s claims. This doesn’t mean that external forces might not orchestrate another Color Revolution, but just that the pretext upon which that might happen is totally false, which all honest observers should keep in mind going forward.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/duda-cla ... ro-western

******

On rallies in Georgia and the protest potential of the opposition
October 29, 2024
Rybar

After Georgia's radically pro-Western opposition refused to admit its complete defeat in the parliamentary elections, the country's president, Salome Zurabishvili , and other public figures called on supporters to come out to the Tbilisi parliament on October 28.

Against the backdrop of such statements, one could reasonably expect major street riots similar to those that took place in the country during the discussion of the law on foreign agents. Fuel was added to the fire by reports of alleged snipers who had secretly arrived to create provocations.

But the rallies were not very large-scale, and the opposition leaders did not even outline further steps. It is unlikely that they will limit themselves to this event, but now the opponents of the ruling Georgian Dream party are far from being in the best position.

From a political point of view, the voting took place without violations, which even observers from PACE and OSCE were forced to admit. Using mantras about "stolen elections" in this case is not appropriate.

From an image point of view, the ruling party offers a balanced policy, while the opposition offers support for LGBT and the prospect of war with Russia. It is difficult to accuse the Georgian Dream of a pro-Russian course - its representatives have openly spoken about plans to join the EU and strengthen relations with NATO.

Finally, even the opposition supporters have the example of the so-called Ukraine in all its manifestations before their eyes. This image also greatly influences the desire of the country's residents to create a local version of the "Maidan" at home.

It cannot be ruled out that the sponsors of the Georgian opposition will want to "rock" the situation to the level of permanent street riots. However, to do this, they will need a truly powerful informational pretext that will allow them to mobilize the anti-government electorate and bring it out onto the streets.

https://rybar.ru/o-mitingah-v-gruzii-i- ... ppoziczii/

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Thu Oct 31, 2024 6:03 pm

Why Does the West Hate Russia So Much?
Posted on October 31, 2024 by Conor Gallagher

The Bolshevik revolution of 1917 shook the elites of Europe. They likely hadn’t been that uneasy since the guillotines were getting worn out in France in 1794. In the 2021 book “The Spectre of War: International Communism and the Origins of World War II” Jonathan Haslam makes the case that the fear of Communism was a significant driver behind WWII.

Haslam has another book, “Hubris,” just recently out in which he argues “a gross and systemic lack of understanding by Britian and its allies concerning Russia’s intentions and likely actions is ultimately to blame for the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.”

There’s another telling of that story in which the US and UK knew exactly what they were doing, but that gives you an idea of where Haslam’s coming from. He takes a similar stance on the UK elite in “The Spectre of War”: that it was British misconceptions about Hitler that led them to pursue a pact with the Nazis or at least use Hitler against Russia.

Image

On one hand Haslam argues that the British view of fascism as the only force standing between the Communist overthrow of the existing order was understandable; on the other he faults the British rich for politically misreading Hitler’s Germany in courting it to battle communism.

The logical conclusion, which he never quite nails down, is that it’s unfortunate Hitler didn’t play ball. In attempting steer clear of that point, however, he does (unintentionally I think) make the case that the elites in our supposedly democratic societies vastly prefer fascism to losing any of their wealth. That’s because while the book is primarily concerned with the communist menace, it’s hard to provide convincing evidence of it being such an existential threat without referring to that fact.

From his telling of history, Haslam issues warnings for today, including that “today’s great state of balance will not last” and that Bolshevism or fascism could soon re-emerge.

What could lead to their re-emergence? Haslam offers a smorgasbord of threats, including that “the confidence to invest is being undermined by revolutionary extremism,” which sounds oddly like a call for fascism in order to preserve the existing order and wealth. Other threats include runaway inflation, a lack of economic freedom in China, crime in the US, and Iran’s “bid for hegemony in the Middle East.” Okay, then.

Nowhere does our elites’ attraction to fascism in order to protect their wealth factor in, which is probably understandable considering the point of view Haslam is writing from is as a member of that elite. He is George F. Kennan Professor in the School of Historical Studies at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton and Professor of the History of International Relations at the University of Cambridge and is widely considered a Soviet Union expert in the West.

Haslam relied on whatever documents — British, French, Russian, etc. — he could get his hands on from the time period, which is still limited (one can only guess as to why):

Not all of those [diplomatic documents] for the interwar period are declassified, even now. For instance, annual reports written by British diplomats stationed in foreign capitals such as Paris are still unaccountably closed…We still have no access to the files of Britain’s secret service, MI6, for the interwar period.

I wonder what a book based on the same documents but solely focused on Western elites’ attraction to fascism would read like. Maybe that book is still to be written (or I’ve missed it).

Nonetheless, while Haslam wrote a book about the threat of communism, what jumped out to me were the periodic details of UK plutocrats’ love of fascism and how it lay bare the true nature of the British ragion di stato. That’s what I’ll detail here, and in doing so, hopefully shed some light on how the Soviets and Russians have so long been a thorn in the wealthy Brit’s sides that they now hate them today the same as their dads and granddads.

***

Following the Bolshevik Revolution the consensus among the UK establishment was that the Soviets must be defeated at all costs. That thinking was put into practice almost immediately when British troops landed in Murmansk eight months after the Bolsheviks seized power. The UK bombed Petrograd and even enlisted German troops to fight the Soviets in the Baltics.

It continued in the late 1920s when the British tried to embrace the Kremlin’s only ally Weimar Germany, which was still practicing former Chancellor Otto von Bismarck’s late 19th century strategy of counting on the natural trading relationship of Russian raw materials for German industry to neutralize any rivalry. As Haslam writes, “…the massive [British] army that had been rapidly mobilized in 1914 was no more. The only means of containing Bolshevism was through diplomacy. By undermining the Soviet-German entente, the British were securing Europe.”

Those efforts continued when Hitler was in power, and despite a few brief pauses, they never really ended to this day despite Communism’s defeat.

Why? If we go back to the beginning, while Britain wasn’t overcome with class struggle, there was widespread fear of it among the wealthy. And the Bolsheviks did cause major problems for the empire, such as in China where they provided early support for the Chinese Communist Party. Haslam can go on for pages about the Japanese running amok, committing endless atrocities in Manchuria and then turn around and write something like this:

In the Far East as in Europe, the Western powers feared that undoing the status quo would unleash the forces of disorder.

Which of course were the communists and why the UK and US supported Japan despite the horrors they were unleashing on civilians. That’s because the true victims were traumatized British bourgeois in Haslam’s telling:

The customary forms of international relations were thus systematically overturned by Moscow’s messianic commitment to overturning the established international order at all costs and as soon as practicable. At the receiving end throughout Europe, the bureaucratic elite, dressed for the day in detachable collars and morning suits, sitting down to work despatching and receiving deciphered telegrams to and from the embassies of Europe, found their customary conduct of diplomacy repeatedly frustrated by Comintern subversion across the globe.

That’s all fine and good, but there are two problems with Haslam’s apologia:

1.He frequently depicts the Communist International (Comintern) as ineffective.

2.According to Haslam, it was the British who didn’t take diplomacy with the Russians seriously as the Nazi storm clouds gathered over Europe. They instead wanted a deal with Hitler to form a united front against Communism. Here’s one such example from the book:

Moscow, faced with German enmity, was actually working hard to make friends across Europe. It wanted to avoid unexpected crises arising from Comintern operations and was willing to make concessions to appease potential partners. …the problem for Soviet diplomacy was that the core objective of Comintern’s Popular Front strategy was…aimed, of course, not merely at isolating German fascism but at combating fascism in general.


Let’s look at what the UK, in comparison, was up to in the interwar years:

Alberto de Stefani, italy’s finance minister, reported to the prime minster (and foreign minister) Benito Mussolini from Paris on 7 January 1925 that “In a discussion that I had today with [Winston] Churchill [then chancellor of the exchequer]…the latter expressed his sympathy for Your Excellency and his esteem for the energetic work carried out by Your Excellency in suppressing Bolshevism.”

At that point Mussolini had murdered hundreds and imprisoned thousands of Italians in those suppression efforts. Haslam goes on to quote a 1927 piece from the British newspaper Morning Post entitled “The Fascist Ideal”:

When Mussolini took hold of Italy, democracy, delirious with Communism, was swiftly and bloodily ruining the country. And because every other nation is menaced by the same disaster, the example of Italy is peculiarly illuminating, as a ‘contribution to civilisation.’

In London on 19 October 1930 Churchill, now on the back benches, told Prince Otto von Bismarck, the counsellor at the German embassy in London, that “the burgeoning industrialization of the Soviet state presents a great danger to the whole of Europe that can be dealt with only through the establishment of an alliance with the whole of the rest of Europe and America against Russia.”


Here’s the US ambassador to Germany echoing that sentiment:

[President] Hindenburg backs Bruening on the question that Germany is facing a Russian menace,” reported the US ambassador to Germany Frederic Sackett, a solid Republican businessman. “They believe that eventually Russia will be compelled by public opinion to take back Bessarabia and that this will reopen the whole question of the spread of Bolshevism throughout Europe. In this maelstrom Germany will be the buffer state and must be ready to defend itself and the rest of Europe against Bolshevism.

Here is former British Prime Minister Lloyd George in September 1933 explaining that Hitler was the only alternative to communism:

If the Powers succeed in overthrowing Nazism in Germany, what would follow? Not a Conservative, Socialist or Liberal regime, but extreme Communism. Surely that could not be their objective. A Communist Germany would be infinitely more formidable than a Communist Russia.

This belief was widespread at the British Foreign Office:

The red-headed young Robert Hadow, then first secretary of the embassy in Vienna, argued that weakening Hitler would lead towards a Communist Germany “led by utterly unreasonable men — which I do not consider Hitler to be.”

Haslam has harsher words for the Germans like Hindenburg and Schleicher who “arrogantly deluded themselves that they could simultaneously use, contain and control a populist agitator [?] like Hitler to their own ends.” It would appear they were not the only ones, however:

The British were utterly unavailable and had no intention of taking any initiative…tending towards the containment of Nazi Germany. France was thus on its own. Worse than that, the British, with no illusions about French motives, exerted their utmost influence “to prevent the Franco-Russian alliance.”

…No one could deny that the British knew exactly what they were doing, though they had as yet no clear idea as to the longer-term consequences of their actions.


Did they not though? Haslam cites the following examples, which show they did know:

A junior minister at the Foreign Office, Anthony Eden, had begun to shift from the consensus that Germany was much misunderstood and deserved the benefit of the doubt to a more realistic assessment of where the Nazis were heading. His superior Sir John Simon, however, was of a different mould. He held out to Hitler the prospect of a deal on Air Force limitation in return for a more general European settlement. When Hitler showed himself willing to take the deal without the quid pro quo, Eden of course protested. But Simon characteristically gave way.

“Simon toys with [the] idea of letting [Germany] expand eastwards,” Eden surmised…”Apart from its dishonesty…it would be our turn next.” Simon nonetheless drew consolation from Hitler’s obsession with marching to Eastern Europe.


British diplomat Sir Orme Sargent saw a war by Germany against the Soviet Union as welcome inevitable:

“The need of expansion will force Germany towards the East a being the only field open to her, and as long as the Bolshevist regime exists in Russia it is impossible for this expansion to take merely the form of peaceful penetration.”

And here’s Ambassador Phipps in Berlin:

He proffered the tactical objection that by “erect[ing too much barbed wire, whether along Hitler’s southern or eastern frontier, we will head the beast back to the west.” Sargent commented with respect to this that a “great deal” could be said for Britain making no commitments to defend Eastern Europe.

How about Lord Londonderry, “one of Churchill’s innumerable cousins”?

He was an extraordinarily wealthy man, with more than most to lose were genuine socialism to take power. Londonderry was of the view that Germany was the lesser evil.

Here is Colonel Rogers of British intelligence to his counterparts in France:

The liquidation of the growing danger [the Soviet Union] is entirely in the interests of Britain. The British will in no way attempt to do this with their own hands and will not take part openly in any anti-Soviet combinations…But should there be emerge the possibility of defeating the Bolsheviks by any combination of forces, then the British will look upon it with sympathy and will at the decisive moment themselves take part in it. If another government forms in Russia, then the possibility is not to be excluded that Britain will support it, thereby finally re-establishing the balance of power in Europe.

France signed a pact with the Soviets nonetheless, and the Brits replied by breaching part five of the Versailles Treaty with an agreement with Berlin that legitimized German naval rearmament at 35% of the British level. The UK would go on to pressure Paris to abandon the treaty as the foreign office saw it as the greatest obstacle to “any attempt at collaboration in Europe.” France had to choose between Russia and the Western European Great Powers.” Here’s Sargent again:

Sargent in late 1936 sought to revive a Concert of Europe…What he foresaw, as did The Economist, was the division of the continent into ideologically opposing camps. Spain was the catalyst, but France, as he saw it, was the real problem…As to the two fascist powers, however, the task lay in removing their “feeling” of being isolated.

Here’s Oliver Harvey, private secretary to foreign secretary Lord Halifax in June of 1938:

…the British were “praying for Franco’s victory and bringing all the influence they can bear on France to stop the inflow of munitions to Barcelona.” Halifax was no exception. He believed the civil war made it easier to find common ground with Germany, because the Communist role would cause the British to see Germany “as an ally of ours and of all order-loving folk.” The pressure from London under Chamberlain was unremitting. On 13 June French Prime Minister Edouard Daladier finally closed the frontier to arms traffic heading into Spain. Thereafter the Republic was doomed.

Somewhat unexpectedly British public opinion was staunchly against Mussolini’s invasion of Ethiopia in 1935 and demanded action. The government, which looked favorably upon Mussolini’s efforts against communism, was unmoved.

“That was what was at the back of their minds,” recalled [British historian] A.L. Rowse: “the anti-Red theme that confused their minds when they should have been thinking in terms of their country’s interests and safety.”

Were they not though? As Haslam admits at one point, “This was, after all, a society run by a homogeneous caste who had, with very few exceptions, attended the leading private schools and university at Oxford and Cambridge.” If their idea of country is their caste, then they were looking out for their interests by offering tacit support for Mussolini and Hitler. And that leads to the prime ministership of Neville Chamberlain.

Chamberlain as Appeaser?

The simple story told in the history books is that Chamberlain’s run as prime minister (1937-40) was one of naivety and weakness. He was an appeaser who failed to stand up to dictators and prevent WWII. In reality he was representing the interests of much of the British upper class, which preferred a pact with Nazi Germany.

In 1938 the British politician and diplomat Sir Harold Nicholson wrote in his diary the following:

“People of the governing classes think only of their own fortunes, which means hatred of the Reds. This creates a perfectly artificial but at present most effective secret bond between ourselves and Hitler. Our class interests, on both sides.”

Or consider Lord Privy Seal Viscount Halifax on a trip to Germany in 1937 on the Chamberlain government’s behalf:

Halifax was hosted by Goring and visited Hitler at Berchtesgaden, where he thought it appropriate to congratulate the dictator on performing what he described as “great services in Germany.” Halifax added that Hitler “also, as he would no doubt feel, had been able, by preventing the entry of communism into his own country, to bar its passage further west.”

Halifax…”liked all the Nazi leaders, even Goebbels! Whom no one likes”…He believed it vital that Britain “get on with them.”


When Germany invaded Czechoslovakia in 1939 Britain exerted maximum pressure on Prague to bow to the Germans. In July of that year Head of the Home Civil Service Horace Wilson met with the German ambassador and proposed that Britain and Germany divide Europe into “economic spheres of influence, which involved directing the Germans towards eastern and south-eastern Europe…”

Ahead of the Munich Conference, ‘Chamberlain, confident of royal support, said he would outline “the prospect of Germany and England as the two pillars of European peace and buttresses against Communism.”’

There was a reason he was confident of royal support. Here’s King Edward VIII’s hand-picked equerry, Dudley Forwood:

“We were not averse to Hitler politically. We felt that the Nazi regime was a more appropriate government than the Weimar Republic, which had been extremely socialist.”

The Duke of Windsor was “very pro-German.” As were the Duke and Duchess of Kent and Queen Mary. Moscow, slowly but surely, was beginning to figure out what was going on. Here’s a Kremlin memo following the capitulation of Czechoslovakia:

“From an analysis of the current military-political situation in Europe it follows that the main organiser and inspiration for war against the Soviet Union in the West is Fascist Germany evidently under the patronage of England and France.”

Moscow had a different word for Chamberlain’s “appeasement.” They called it “pro-fascist.”

Even as 1939 was drawing to a close Britain was making preparations for war with the Soviets, and it wasn’t so much that Chamberlain’s successor Churchill was anti-fascist, but he was worried about the German threat to the British empire. Or the view from Comintern: “The war is turning out to be between two groups of capitalist countries for the domination of the world.”

After Churchill’s rise to prime minister he refuted rumors of peace talks with Germany and declared that Britain would fight to the end as it was “a matter of life or death for England and the British empire.”

There were, however, repeated attempts still to come to terms with Berlin. Here’s one such example involving the Duke of Windsor (formerly King Edward VIII), according to the foreign department of Soviet state security:

“…Edward, together with his wife Simpson, are currently in Madrid where they are in contact with Hitler. Edward is conducting negotiations with Hitler on the question of forming a new English government, the conclusion of peace with Germany conditional upon establishing a military alliance against the USSR.”

Hitler was coming to similar conclusions about the UK that the communists were. According to Rudolf Hess’s personal adjutant, Hitler believed “that after the fall of France, Britain was more likely to come to terms if Germany attacked the Soviet Union.” Hard to blame him for thinking so.

Lessons

The lesson, we are told repeatedly, learned from WWII is to never appease dictators. This is used to sell so many of the US and friends’ interventions today.

Maybe that lesson is apt for the plutocrats and their court jesters who rued (still rue?) the fact that Hitler wouldn’t play along. Maybe they still have a lingering sense of a missed opportunity to conquer Russia.

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For the rest of us the lesson from WWII might be very different: that the concentration of wealth and its stranglehold on politics and government are preludes to fascism. As Haslam writes:

Fascism in Germany, as in Italy and then in Spain, was viewed as a necessary antidote to revolutionary excesses. In some senses the official British interpretation was justifiable.

While the Western plutocrats might have missed their WWII opportunity to defeat Russia due to infighting over empire, they are on the same page this go-round. As Diana Johnstone wrote shortly after the official beginning of the war in Ukraine:

When Western leaders speak of “economic war against Russia,” or “ruining Russia” by arming and supporting Ukraine, one wonders whether they are consciously preparing World War III, or trying to provide a new ending to World War II. Or will the two merge?

As it shapes up, with NATO openly trying to “overextend” and thus defeat Russia with a war of attrition in Ukraine, it is somewhat as if Britain and the United States, some 80 years later, switched sides and joined German-dominated Europe to wage war against Russia, alongside the heirs to Eastern European anticommunism, some of whom were allied to Nazi Germany.


Unfortunately for this new alliance, the Nazis appear to be on the losing end against Russia yet again.

Another topical lesson that didn’t get learned is that the UK and other Western powers shouldn’t try to control and steer Nazis. If we want to imagine a real nightmare for Europe (as opposed to the imagined one of Putin conquering the continent), how about if Ukraine, feeling betrayed by Europe, turns its still-large army and all its toys westwards while the Americans and Russians look away? As Anthony Eden told Russian Ambassador to the UK Ivan Maisky in 1940:

“You know the greatest difficulty for me at this time was to convince my friends that Hitler and Mussolini were not quite similar to in psychology, in motive and methods, in their entire cast of mind anything like English ‘business men or country gentlemen.’ This they could never get themselves to believe. They though that I was ‘biased’ against the ‘dictators’ and that I didn’t wish to understand them…Some of our statesmen even after me attempted to communicate with ‘dictators’ as with ‘business men.’

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10 ... nt-4123892

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On new Finnish Air Force exercises and patrolling the border with Russia
October 30, 2024
Rybar

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From 28 to tomorrow, two air force exercises are taking place in Finland – Vilkku 2024 and Täppä 2024 – to maintain the readiness of pilots for crisis situations in Scandinavia . It involves 1,500 military personnel and 30 aircraft, including F/A-18 fighters and HAWK training aircraft.

There is nothing completely new in these events, since the Finnish command is extremely active in training its units. Such exercises are held constantly, but the difference was the simultaneous conduct of two trainings with similar tasks at once.

But another innovation is even more interesting: from October 28 to
December 12, F/A-18C/D fighters will be used to monitor and ensure airspace security near the Russian borders along the Leningrad Region and Karelia . This operation is reminiscent of NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission .

This operation is supposedly to protect NATO airspace from "Russian aggression." A similar mission is underway in the Black Sea region , where it is called Black Sea Air Policing , and is currently led by Spanish F/A-18s.

That is, the Finns will conduct something similar with NATO missions in other areas on their own. Considering that under this pretext the Alliance is actively conducting reconnaissance of the activities of Russian aircraft and ships, the meaning of such a decision on the part of the Finns seems obvious, especially to ensure surveillance of aviation from Olenya .

https://rybar.ru/o-novyh-ucheniyah-fins ... s-rossiej/

On changes in the powers of the Finnish Border Guard
October 30, 2024
Rybar

Speaking about Finland and its role in the Alliance, we have repeatedly said that Finland is NATO's vanguard position in the Arctic region in the fight against Russia. Exercises, new bases, missions against the Russian Federation confirm this.

But that's not all. The Finnish Ministry of the Interior intends to expand the powers of the border guard for early crime prevention and increased security measures. Beautifully put, isn't it? But let's read more:
In the future, the Finnish border guard may also be used for remote surveillance , collecting other classified information as a secret intelligence network, and for technical monitoring of crime prevention.

It is also proposed to empower the border service to conduct covert operations exclusively in cyberspace. These capabilities will be provided to border guards specially trained for covert intelligence collection.

It is proposed to empower the border service to search for sources of information . This is required not only for the purpose of preventing and solving crimes, but also for the purpose of maintaining border security in order to obtain relevant information.

These are the adjustments that are coming to the Finnish border service. Under the pretext of ensuring border security, border guards will receive the necessary equipment to conduct more thorough searches and reconnaissance of border areas, as well as in cyberspace, that is, in the northern part of Russia.

We don't really believe that the Finns haven't done this before, considering that there are plenty of fans of traveling to and from Finland. The Finnish border guards, at the very least, have information about those who have made such trips. And they will be the first to be noted as possible "sources of information . "

So the border with Finland is becoming less and less acceptable for Russian travelers. If at first the Finns simply blocked the traffic under a false pretext, now all information about Russians crossing the " ribbon " legally will be transferred to the special services.

https://rybar.ru/ob-izmeneniyah-v-polno ... ansluzhby/

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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