Yemen

[blindpig]

Pentagon launches 'multinational coalition' to combat Yemen in Red Sea

Sanaa reportedly rejected Washington's attempts at direct communications regarding the Yemeni armed forces' tactics against Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea

News Desk

DEC 19, 2023


(Photo Credit: US navy)

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced on 18 December the creation of a multi-national coalition “to uphold the foundational principle of freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea.

“I am announcing the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an important new multinational security initiative under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of its Task Force 153, which focuses on security in the Red Sea,” Austin’s statement reads.

Under the leadership of the already existing Task Force 153, set up in April of this year to “improve maritime security and capacity building” in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab, and the Gulf of Aden, the nations included in Operation Prosperity Guardian are the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain.

Several other nations have reportedly agreed to be involved in the naval task force but “prefer not to be publicly named,” an unnamed US defense official told POLITICO.

The nations taking part in Washington's scheme will “jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity,” Austin said.

Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a high-ranking member of the Supreme Political Council in Yemen, said on social media: “[The US] repeatedly sought direct communication with the Republic of Yemen in Sana’a, but this was rejected.”

"It brings no honor to communicate directly with the killers of children of Gaza and Yemen,” he added, stressing that "[the US] are the terrorists.”


The formation of this Red Sea coalition follows the threats and attacks on Israeli-linked commercial vessels from Ansarallah and the Yemeni armed forces in solidarity with the Palestinian people.

This situation forced major shipping companies to suspend their operations in the Red Sea.

Washington has pressured other nations to join the coalition. One of these is Saudi Arabia, which the US is reportedly pressuring to delay signing a peace agreement with Yemen.

Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, senior political official and spokesman for Ansarallah, has previously said, “If Saudi Arabia and the UAE are part of any coalition to attack Yemen, we will not leave an oil field or a gas field in Saudi Arabia or the Emirates, and we will target all ships transporting oil.”


The US war chief arrived in Israel on Monday to speak with senior Israeli leaders, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

“Attacks by extremist settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank must stop, and those committing the violence must be held accountable,” Austin said during a joint press conference.

“It would compound this tragedy if all that was waiting for the Israeli people and your Palestinian neighbors at the end of this awful war was more insecurity, fury, and despair,” the secretary of state added. “As I have said, Israelis and Palestinians have both paid too bitter a price to just go back to October 6.”

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/penta ... in-red-sea

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THE U.S. NAVY IS UNPREPARED FOR A PROLONGED WAR WITH YEMEN
19 December 2023 by Larry Johnson 145 Comments


Aegis Missile Defense System

It looks like the United States, along with 9 allies — Great Britain, Italy, Bahrain, Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain — are on the verge of entangling itself in a new Middle East quagmire as an international armada assembles in the international waters around Yemen. The mission? Stop Yemen from threatening cargo and oil tankers headed to Israel.

Tiny Yemen has surprised the West with its tenacity and ferocity in attacking ships trying to ferry containers and fuel to Israel. Yes, this is a violation of international law and the West is fully justified in trying to thwart Yemen. On paper it would appear that Yemen is outnumbered and seriously outgunned. A sure loser? Not so fast. The U.S. Navy, which constitutes the majority of the fleet sailing against Yemen, has some real vulnerabilities that will limit its actions.

Before explaining the risks, you must understand that the U.S. Navy is configured currently as a “Forward-Based Navy” and is not an “Expeditionary Navy.” Anthony Cowden, writing for the Center for International Maritime Security in September, examined this issue in his article, REBALANCE THE FLEET TOWARD BEING A TRULY EXPEDITIONARY NAVY.

Today we have a forward-based navy, not an expeditionary navy. This distinction is important for remaining competitive against modern threats and guiding force design.

Due to the unique geographical position of the U.S., the Navy has the luxury of defending the nation’s interests “over there.” Since World War II, it developed and maintained a navy that was able to project power overseas; to reconstitute its combat power while still at sea or at least far from national shores; and continuously maintain proximity to competitors. This expeditionary character minimized the dependence of the fleet on shore-based and homeland-based infrastructure to sustain operations, allowing the fleet to be more logistically self-sufficient at sea.

However, late in the Cold War, the U.S. Navy started to diminish its expeditionary capability, and became more reliant on allied and friendly bases. A key development was subtle but consequential – the vertical launch system (VLS) for the surface fleet’s primary anti-air, anti-submarine, and land-attack weapons. While a very capable system, reloading VLS at sea was problematic and soon abandoned. While an aircraft carrier can be rearmed at sea, surface warships cannot, which constrains the ability of carrier strike groups to sustain forward operations without taking frequent trips back to fixed infrastructure. The Navy is revisiting the issue of reloading VLS at sea, and those efforts should be reinforced.

The next step the Navy took away from an expeditionary capability was in the 1990s, when it decommissioned most of the submarine tenders (AS), all of the repair ships (AR), and destroyer tenders (AD), and moved away from Sailor-manned Shore Intermediate Maintenance Centers (SIMA). Not only did this eliminate the ability to conduct intermediate maintenance “over there,” but it destroyed the progression of apprentice-to-journeyman-to-master technician that made the U.S. Navy Sailor one of the premier maintenance resources in the military world. Combat search and rescue, salvage, and battle damage repair are other areas in which the U.S. Navy no longer has sufficient capability for sustaining expeditionary operations.

So what? Each U.S. destroyer carries an estimated 90 missiles (perhaps a few more). Their primary mission is to protect the U.S. aircraft carrier they are shielding. What happens when Yemen fires 100 drones/rockets/missiles at a U.S. carrier? The U.S. destroyer, or multiple destroyers will fire their missiles to defeat the threat. Great. Mission accomplished! Only one little problem, as described in the preceding quote — the U.S. Navy got rid of the ship tenders, i.e. those vessels capable of resupplying destroyers with new missiles to replace the expended rounds. In order to reload, that destroyer must sail to the nearest friendly port where the U.S. has stockpiled missiles for resupply.

Got the picture? If the destroyer must sail away then the U.S. carrier must follow. It cannot just sit out in the ocean without its defensive screen of ships. The staying power of a U.S. fleet in a combat zone, like Yemen, is a function of how many missiles the Yemenis fire at the U.S. ships.

But the problems do not stop there. Each of the Aegis missiles, as I noted in my previous post, cost at least $500,000 dollars. A retired U.S. DOD official told me today that the actual cost is $2 million dollars. If Yemen opts to use drone swarms to saturate the battle space around a carrier, then the United States will firing very expensive missiles to destroy relatively inexpensive drones. This brings up another critical vulnerability — the U.S. only has a limited supply of these air defense missiles and does not have the industrial capability in place and operating to produce new ones rapidly to make up the deficit.

Getting the picture now? The U.S. Navy may find itself having to sail away without finishing the job of eliminating the drone/missile threat from Yemen. How do you think that will play in the rest of the world? The mighty Super Power having to retreat to rearm because it could not sustain intense combat operations. This is not classified information. It is published all over the internet. If I can figure this out then I am certain that U.S. adversaries, not just Yemen, realize they have a way to give the U.S. a very bloody nose in terms of damaged prestige.

What happens if Yemen is able to sink one or two U.S. Navy ships? Then the shit really hits the fan. The United States does not have a magical supply of missiles squirreled away to deal with this contingency. The U.S. ships would have to sail away to rearm after picking up the survivors from a sundered ship.

Then there is the problem of finding the mobile missile platforms in Yemen. Remember the problems the United States had in Iraq in 1991 trying to find and destroy SCUD missile launch systems? While ISR systems are better today, there is still no guarantee of being able to locate and destroy in a timely manner. The Yemenis have more than 8 years experience dealing with U.S. ISR and U.S. drone attacks. On November 9th the Yemenis shot down a MQ-9 Reaper drone. That baby costs a little more than $30 million dollars.



Here is the bottomline. The United States flotilla, along with its allies, can do some damage to Yemen but are unlikely to achieve a decisive victory. Yemen, for its part, can inflict some serious damage to some of the ships — maybe even sink one or two — and by doing so, score a moral victory that will fuel doubts about America’s naval capabilities and staying power. Perhaps this explains why the U.S. has been so slow to respond to the attacks launched by Yemen.

https://sonar21.com/the-u-s-navy-is-unp ... ith-yemen/

The world is a better off place because the US does not have an "Expeditionary Navy.” Bad enough as it is....

Even as capitalism is the true rationale for monstrous military strength so capitalism has also been the scourge of real military efficiency when what the vendor has to sell trumps what the military really needs. In terms of goals to means this could be as much a debacle as Afghanistan.

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US, Allies Opening New Front in Middle East With Escalation Against Houthis Over Shipping Lanes
Posted on December 20, 2023 by Yves Smith

What at the moment looks like the irresistible force of Houthi attacks against shipping in and out of Israel is meeting the seeming immovable object of Israel determination to render Gaza uninhabitable. But the US and a set of allies1, via the too-cutely named Operation Prosperity Guardian, are making a major naval force commitment to the Red Sea to try to counter the Houthi success in severely curbing traffic though the critically important Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Keep in mind the Houthis insist they are seeking only to restrict shipping in and out of Israel. But major cargo operators have stopped servicing the Red Sea area as insurance prices have spiked. So we have the spectacle of the US, a supposed naval power, unable to protect critical sea lanes. Can’t have that, now can we?

Mind you, it is not clear what good a convoy, which looks to be the immediate response, will do in the face of drone and ballistic missile attacks. Yes, it will put more defensive firepower in the theater. But the number of missiles and difficulty of resupply means there is a possibility, even a pretty good one that the Houthis can simply exhaust the firepower that can be delivered via the Operation Prosperity Guardian warships.


And that’s before getting to logistics issues, that to a degree, maybe a big degree, various vessels have particular launch platforms, so missiles are not very fungible across ships. So this the convoy could wind up being a high cost temporizing measure. Would the West try to move to a Plan B before it became hopelessly evident that it was outmatched by the proverbial guys in sandals, now with the force levelers of drones and ballistic missiles? Of course, events in the from of damage to convoy ships could overtake events.

So what might next steps be, if the big bad Western forces fail to trounce the Houthis quickly? Maybe the Biden Administration works up the nerve to tell Israel no more weapons for you if you don’t cut it out in Gaza. You can be sure the hawks will call for strikes on Iran to make them rein in the Houthis (when I doubt Iran has operational control) and/or a ground attack on Yemen. I consider the latter to be nuts. We saw from the Gulf Wars it took months to pre-position men and weapons, and that was when we had a better army. And by all accounts, the Houthis would be as hard as the Afghanis to defeat, between their native tenacity, their very decentralized structure, and the defense-friendly terrain.

Troublingly, it’s not hard if there is not a resolution to this impasse pretty soon, that Israel could see that as justifying a tactical nuclear strike on Yemen or Iran, the Houthi’s sponsor.

We’ll pause for a moment and provide what is hopefully a more complete overview. One came from reader Boomheist yesterday:

A couple days ago it was reported than 45 ships, container, had chosen to reroute around Africa from the Suez and Red Sea. Yesterday reports stated the number was now over 65, I think, plus at least one tanker company, BP, also rerouting its ships. Other headlines this morning are stating that essentially the Red Sea is closed, with a lot of ships on hold awaiting the start of naval escorts.

The governing assumption, looking at the many “X” feeds by those in the maritime sector, seems to be a triumphant sense that hooray, finally the great US Navy and its allies are going to weigh in and snuff out the Houthis and thus re-secure the Red Sea approaches and the traffic. Within a few days we will see Operation [Prosperity] Guardian stand up and shortly after see the Houthis rendered toothless; ie, these armed destroyers will shoot down all the drones and missiles fired, as one US destroyer claimed the other day with shooting down 14 missiles and drones. Yet we see some other feeds doing some math showing the total number of such protective missiles aboard naval ships is limited to, perhaps, 800 and if the Houthis have thousands of smaller missiles and drones they can then overwhelm this naval task force and render the empire toothless. It is one thing to wave the flag and steam around looking scary. It will be another if a drone swarm overpowers a destroyer and takes it out of action, even sinks it, or if a swarm damages a commercial ship being protected by this naval force.

One scenario, the triumphant one, holds that this Operation [Prosperity] Guardian will show to one and all the US Navy and allies are Not to be Messed With and the Houthi dangers an irritant that can be handled such that Red Sea traffic resumes and this blip in world trade and Suez use will return to normal within a week or two. The other scenario, the pessimistic one, holds that the naval task force is toothless against drone swarms and damaged commercial ships, such that the Suez eventually closes and world trade is chaotically disrupted.

The latter scenario has another element – let’s for the moment assume Those in the Know know full well the current situation, thousands of Houthi asymmetrical weapons, can overwhelm whatever this task force has over a very short time period. Then the only solution is to somehow reduce that number, by blasting storage depots and also by directly attacking Iran and China, the assumed sources of at least the missiles. This will take time, during which the Suez remains closed. This will become a war between the US and Iran and maybe even China.

If this asymmetrical swarm warfare against US Naval vessels (and this includes carrier task forces btw) can neutralize naval threats, then unless and until the source of those weapons is neutralized the ability of navies to protect commercial shipping, or protect distant military operations (think Taiwan) is rendered moot.

We seem to be facing a paradigm shifting threat and moment.

Either the Empire still has serious Teeth or will be shown to be Toothless.

As a former sailor aboard container vessels transiting the Suez and Red Sea passage many times and someone who has also worked aboard Military Sealift Command ships – those that will feed the supply chain if necessary – I have little doubt that we can come up with the sailors and ships needed to get supplies to remote locations, though this will require a major effort and serious changes in how we make sure the US industrial base has the capacity to manufacture missiles and weapons and shipyards to grow the fleet. I have far more doubt this country has the political ability and will to take the steps, right now, to make this happen. I fear that if the Houthis manage to show Operation [Prosperity] Guardian a toothless enterprise then the gap between awareness of what we need to do and our ability to make it happen will have devastating consequences.

Many stories this week about US ability to produce weapons to refill Ukrainian coffers, mostly artillery shells, which everyone knows is very limited. Combine that with now the need to supply Israel, also from limited stocks and a seemingly short capacity for backfill manufacture. What about the annual ability to crank out missiles and weapons to replace those 800 missiles aboard the ships in Operation [Prosperity] Guardian? Can this even be done? Maybe this can happen right sway, a stroke of the pen to redirect plants in the US to start producing more missiles. Maybe this is already happening. Then, of course, if the US and other nations have the back supply chain ability to keep feeding the military effort, and IF the naval ships, properly supplied, can hit all the drones coming their way, then within a few days the Houthi threat will be seen as a fiction and all will return to normal – ie, Suez traffic reopens and the trade shock neutralized. The pressure to accede to a cease fire in Palestine is relieved.

In World War 2 the US had an enormous primary manufacturing base, plants galore to produce vehicles, steel, machinery, clothing, etc. You don;t hear much about this now but when WW2 began the US basically set up a government controlled system, with rationing and government control of all industry, requiring auto plants to produce, say, jeeps and tanks, others to make military airplanes, others to make combat boots and uniforms, etc. the US had the industrial base and took steps to control the supply system. Today it seems that base is a shadow of its former self and nowhere does it appear that the US is ready to go to a war footing and force the changes adopted during WW2.

Hopefully this naval task force manages to render the Houthi attacks moot within a very short time, before the back supply chain limits take effect, providing an Operation [Prosperity] Guardian victory. If not, the world sees that those naval vessels cannot defend the Houthi attacks as Operation [Prosperity] Guardian runs out of ammunition within a few days or weeks, all while the Red Sea and Suez remain essentially or actually closed.

A new post at Responsible Statecraft confirms this overview. From its opening section:

According to the Department of Defense, the Houthis have conducted 100 drone and ballistic missile attacks since Oct. 7, targeting cargo vessels involving more than 35 flags from different nations in the Red Sea, including U.S Navy destroyers. Most have been intercepted, though some have hit their targets, causing minor injuries and damage. But with the hijacking of one ship, plus the major disruptions to shipping (the Houthis are blocking an estimated $10 million in cargo a day) and resulting price hikes, the situation has put security in the region on high alert.

It is also costing the United States a pretty penny to act as the key defender of these predominant global shipping lanes. Each munition used to shoot down the Houthi missiles and drones costs between $1 million and $4.3 million and the ships cannot reload at sea and will have to return to port — perhaps Djibouti? — to reload if the kinetic activity goes on much longer, according to experts that talked to Responsible Statecraft this week.

Let’s stop here for a second. None of the participants in Operation Prosperity Guardian have naval bases on the Red Sea. In addition the article seems very confident that even though the Houthis can make defending the waterways a very costly exercise, “There is a lot in the stockpile.” But it does add:

The Houthis have said they will target the ships and U.S. Navy in the Red Sea until Israel stops its bombardment of Palestinians in Gaza. If this video is any indication, the new Operation Prosperity Guardian is going to have its hands full, and millions more dollars in U.S. missile interceptors will be expended before this situation is resolved.

Responsible Statecraft skips over the fact that the Houthis hit a moving ship (25 knots, apparently) with a ballistic missile, which is seen as a worrisome accomplishment. There is debate in the X-verse as to how fancy a ballistic missile it is. Iran fans point out Iran has even better weaponry…but they are very unlikely to have given their best kit to the Houthis:


Other commentators warn against underestimating the Houthis:

Based on past Houthi record of frequently shooting down modern aircraft, it's extremely likely the US loses drones and jets if they engage Houthi targets.

Based on stunning Houthi achievements in targeting ships with ballistic missiles, it's conceivable the US loses ships.

A related development. Symbolic but confirms growing Israel isolation:



More telling:



It has been an open secret even before the Millennium 2002 games, in which a Team Red almost sunk a pretend aircraft carrier in a very elaborately staged war games meant to simulate an attack on Iran, that those ships are big fat targets with little utility. The Millennium 2002 exercise further showed how vulnerable they were to low-tech attacks. Since then, great increases in surveillance technology, particularly drones, precision targeting, yet our surface ships seem not to have made commensurate advances.

(More at link: John Helmer work of yesterday.)

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/12 ... lanes.html

[blindpig]

RUNNING THE RED GAUNTLET — RUSSIA IS NEGOTIATING WITH THE HOUTHIS FOR RED SEA PASSAGE OF OIL CARGOES DEFYING US, EU SANCTIONS



by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

Russia is negotiating with the Houthis of Yemen to protect Russian oil cargoes moving through the Red Sea for delivery to India and China, the principal destinations of Russian oil currently traversing the waterway, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden.

Notified in advance to the Yemeni authorities and the Houthi military command, the Russian oil movements by tankers flying a variety of ship registry and national flags, are running the gauntlet of US and European Union (EU) sanctions against Russian oil exports.

China is also negotiating with the Houthis for safe passage and protection of Chinese-flagged container vessels. The Chinese military base in Djibouti, recently reinforced to support a large Chinese military group intended for a United Nations peacekeeping mission in South Sudan, is also covering the waterway.

Both Moscow and Beijing are acting in semi-secret against US and EU government threats to assemble a naval fleet to convoy shipping headed to and from Israel’s southern port of Eilat. This plan, which the Pentagon is calling Operation Prosperity Guardian, follows the failure of the two US aircraft carrier groups in the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf to protect Israel, and deter the Houthi operations. The Pentagon is also threatening to attack Yemeni territory.

The fleet, to be assembled over the next month from the Ukraine war coalition states against Russia, will also threaten military force against the movement of Russian oil.

Responding to direct questions about the new Red Sea threats on Wednesday afternoon, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Maria Zakharova, skirted saying what the Russian Security Council and General Staff have decided by asking the rhetorical question: “What will the US presence there bring to the region? Greater stability, security, crisis resolution? Or will it all end, as always, with the opposite results?”

Asked to be more specific, Zakharova said: “I have already commented on this question today. I just want to add to what has been said that any presence must have its own purpose and its own result. We see how the United States has increased its presence in the whole region: in the form of attacks on countries, aggression against sovereign regional states, interference in internal affairs, in the form of color revolutions, arms supplies, and manipulation of conflicts in the region. We see what all this has led to…The terrible crisis that has been unfolding before our eyes since October 7 this year. There is no prospect of its immediate completion or even de-escalation. Now everything is balancing on the level of whether, God forbid, this crisis will expand further. Everything is being done on our part to ensure that this does not happen.”

Vzglyad, the semi-official security analysis publication in Moscow, has been pro-Israel since the Gaza war began. But yesterday it published a warning from sources identified as Russian experts on the region. “Yemen has already reacted to this statement. Representatives of the Houthis said that this coalition does not frighten them at all. That they have all the necessary capabilities to provide an adequate response to any actions directed against them and against Yemen. And this is not just a bluff, but words that have a real understanding of their resources and the capabilities behind them. In fact, the coalition ships which will be in the Red Sea will themselves be targets for Yemeni missiles (as the Houthis have already warned)…And the Americans are unlikely to risk conducting a ground operation against them. It is generally difficult to cope with any of the armed formations in Yemen, given the experience of the Yemeni militants and the terrain…The composition of the coalition has turned out to be quite specific. It did not include Egyptians and Jordanians suffering from Yemeni actions, nor the leaders of the region, the Saudis. There is not a single country in the Middle East except Bahrain. It turns out that none of them has wanted to defend their region, their sea and their interests from the Houthis, together with the Americans. Partly because they understand the futility of such an undertaking. Partly because they are afraid of a backlash from the Houthis. Partly because speaking out against the Houthis would mean, in this particular case, opposing their demands to de-blockade the Gaza Strip.”

“No one needs this war — except, of course, the United States with its Western allies and Israel,” Vzglyad concluded.

“Tankers with Russian oil are not afraid of shelling by the Houthis,” is the headline in Wednesday’s Moscow business newspaper Kommersant.


Source: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6412142

Citing vessel tracking data issued by the Kpler agency, the newspaper reports that “despite the fact that the largest European companies have suspended the transit of oil through the Red Sea due to the increased attacks by the Houthis, the largest Russian oil companies continue to actively transport raw materials along this route with the help of a shadow fleet. So, shortly after the attack on the Norwegian tanker on December 18, a cargo of Russian raw materials crossed the Bab el-Mandeb [“Gate of Grief” in English] Strait, and several more such cargoes are now actively following in this direction. In addition, a number of Russian tankers are already preparing to pass through the Suez Canal.”

“Russian oil tankers continue their journey through the straits of the Red Sea after the Houthi attack on the Norwegian tanker Swan Atlantic. Despite the increased shelling by the Houthis, who carried out a series of attacks on container ships and tankers in the Red Sea in November and December, Russian tankers do not change their plans to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. So, a few hours after the Swan Atlantic was attacked by a UAV as a result of the Houthi attack on December 18, the tanker Butterfly-A with Rosneft oil heading to India overcame the danger zone, according to Kpler data. Now it crosses the Gulf of Aden, which washes the coast of Yemen from the south. According to Marine Traffic, there was also the tanker Fjord Seal in this area, which is carrying a shipment of Urals [crude oil] from Gazprom Neft to China.”


The Butterfly-A, Liberian-flagged, in the Gulf of Aden on December 19, according to Marine Traffic.


Left: The Fjord Seal, Panamanian-flagged, is currently in the Gulf of Aden, according to Marine Traffic. Right: the Fjord Seal at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait three days ago, according to Vessel Finder.

Also according to Kommersant, “due to the increased attacks by the Houthis, the largest Western container lines have suspended the transit of goods through the Suez Canal; as a result, carriers have to use a longer route bypassing the Suez Canal through the Cape of Good Hope. This leads to an increase in the cost of logistics and an increase in the delivery time of goods by several weeks. British BP has also announced the suspension of transit through the Red Sea on December 18, after which no European oil tankers remained on course to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, except for ships with Russian oil.”

“Now, after passage through the Suez Canal, five tankers with Russian oil are crossing the Red Sea; they are due to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on December 20. Among them are the tankers Nanda Devi, Lefkada (both with Rosneft oil); Cauveri and Sea Hymn (carrying Surgutneftegaz oil); as well as the tanker Ocean Thunder with LUKOIL cargo from its Caspian Sea fields. These cargoes are being sent to India, which is the largest buyer of offshore shipments of Russian oil. In addition, two more tankers with Russian oil are approaching the Suez Canal from the Mediterranean Sea.”


The Panamanian-flagged Cauveri, enroute to Sika port, India, and expected to discharge its Russian crude cargo of more than 110,000 tonnes deadweight on December 27.

The Financial Times of London is reporting a western shipping panic. “Container shipowners increasingly abandoned one of the world’s busiest trading routes on Tuesday,” with vessel movement already down 36% by comparison with the same time a year ago. “Data compiled by MariTrace, a ship-tracking service, showed that as of Tuesday evening, only 210 ships were traversing the Red Sea, the route to and from the Suez Canal, one of the biggest changes in international trading routes since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago. By comparison, there were about 330 vessels traversing the region last month.”

The London newspaper, which is owned by the Japanese media group Nikkei and runs anti-China, anti-India, and anti-Russia propaganda, omitted to report there has been no change, route diversion, or attack on Russian, Chinese and Indian cargoes. Edited by a Lebanese, Roula Khalaf, the newspaper is also backing the Israeli attacks on Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.



“The attacks in the area risk disrupting global supply chains that depend on the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The waterway accounts for 30 per cent of all container ship traffic and is a vital conduit for crude oil shipments…Retailers have also started warning of supply chain disruptions that could result from the vessel diversions…about 19,000 ships navigated through the Suez Canal each year, typically taking 30 to 40 days to complete an Asia-Europe voyage. Choosing this alternative route from Asia to Europe may extend the journey by three to four weeks.”

Kommersant is reporting that “about 10% of global oil supplies pass through the Suez Canal. Over the past month shipments have declined markedly, as all European majors have suspended transit through the Red Sea…the Suez Canal and the Red Sea play a strategic role for Russia, because more than half of Russian oil exports by sea, or about 2 million barrels per day (b/d), including both Urals and Arctic grades, go through them. In addition to Russian companies, Iraqi and Libyan companies continue to transit oil through the Red Sea… The Russian Federation is the only major exporter west of Suez which has not seen a decrease in the activity of using the Red Sea: even in November-December, the transit of Russian oil remains at the level of 1.5 million b/d, decreasing only to the extent that Turkey increased its purchases of Russian oil.”

For the time being, Russian Foreign Ministry officials are keeping mum. In Marrakesh, Morocco, for a meeting on Wednesday (December 20) of the Arab-Russian Cooperation Forum, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not publicly mention the Houthis or the Russian contacts. He implied as much, however, in his press conference.

“We focused primarily on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict marked by an unprecedented escalation mainly in the Gaza Strip, but also in other places,” Lavrov said. “We reiterated our position that, while condemning any and all terrorist acts, we believe it is also unacceptable to respond to them by collectively punishing civilians and the indiscriminate use of force in violation of international humanitarian law…We discussed the situations in Syria, Libya, Yemen, Sudan, and other crises-ridden hotspots.”

To date, there has been no Russian statement calling Houthi drone and missile operations against Israel or Israeli shipping in the Red Sea “terrorist acts”.

The Foreign Ministry communiqué summarizing the discussions in Morocco declared: “There was a thorough discussion of the situation in Syria, Libya, Yemen, Sudan, the Ukrainian crisis, countering terrorism and extremism, and the creation of a zone free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.”


Left to right: Sergei Lavrov; Nasser Bourita, Moroccan Foreign Minister; Hossam Zaki, Assistant Secretary-General of the League of Arab States. Source: https://mid.ru/en/

Speaking in Moscow after Lavrov’s remarks, spokesman Zakharova was asked by reporters about the Houthi operations in the Red Sea and the US threats. “Question: The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is growing. Now it has spread to the Red Sea, where the Yemeni Houthis are taking action against international shipping. The United States plans to conduct an operation there with ships of the participating countries of this plan. What, in Russia’s opinion, should be done to end this conflict and prevent it from expanding further in the region?”

“A powerful question,” Zakharova acknowledged, but she avoided answering directly. “The main thing is really at the address. Do you know why? There is no sarcasm here. Our position is consistent. We do not change it based on market considerations. Indeed, we take into account both the realities on earth and the changes taking place, but at the same time we build our position on fundamental principles. What is this principle when I talk about the fundamental principles? These are the interests of the people inhabiting this region, the peaceful coexistence of peoples who, unfortunately, have been at war for a long time in their history and had big problems. Based on this, we proceed from the fact that the decisions (I mean the plan or the global roadmap) are contained in those very international legal documents, resolutions of the Security Council, the General Assembly, and decisions of relevant conferences… one country that is not part of this region, which for some reason constantly gives itself the functions of moderator and ‘regulator’ of the entire movement in international relations, prevents the de-escalation of the situation both in the short and long term. It should be understood (as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said) that it is necessary to develop additional diplomatic tools. As you know, the Quartet did not include the countries of the region. Of course, it is necessary to complement this new diplomatic toolkit with the presence of regional players. We need to do everything we agreed on. This is a two-State model with the peaceful existence of these two States, with the capital of the Palestinian State in East Jerusalem. Everything is available for this. Unfortunately, this is hampered by the presence of Washington’s political will to impose its vision of the development of the situation in the region.”

A reporter asked Zakharova again: “How does Russia feel about the growing US presence in the Red Sea? Does this have anything to do with President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates?”

She replied: “I have already commented on this question today. I just want to add to what has been said that any presence must have its own purpose and its own result. We see how the United States has increased its presence in the whole region: in the form of attacks on countries, aggression against sovereign regional states, interference in internal affairs, in the form of color revolutions, arms supplies, and manipulation of conflicts in the region. We see what all this has led to.”

“Over the past few decades, the increased US presence in the region has never led to a way out of the crisis, but only to its aggravation. Each time, long-standing conflicts broke out with renewed vigour. We have seen the growth of the US presence in the region in various directions: military, political, and financial. There were many plans: the use of hybrid schemes to get out of long-standing crises. Unfortunately, we see what all this has led to. The terrible crisis that has been unfolding before our eyes since October 7 this year. There is no prospect of its immediate completion or even de-escalation. Now everything is balancing on the level of whether, God forbid, this crisis will expand further. Everything is being done on our part to ensure that this does not happen. This issue should be treated from the point of view of goal setting. What will the US presence there bring to the region? Greater stability, security, crisis resolution? Or will it all end, as always, with opposite results?”

For the time being, western monitoring of Russian military movements have identified no Russian Navy vessels in the Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden, although the new Kilo-class submarine Ufa, assigned to the Pacific Fleet, is now in the Mediterranean, and expected to transit the Suez Canal into the Red Sea shortly. This Italian report of yesterday also identifies Russian surface ship movement westward across the Indian Ocean towards the Red Sea: “the tanker Kama, which is also transiting the Mediterranean but is likely heading towards the Red Sea. There, it is expected to provide logistical assistance to another Russian unit making its way from the Indian Ocean to the Horn of Africa.”

Indian media are reporting the westward movement of Russian Pacific Fleet vessels in recent weeks, and a plan to establish a naval shore base on the Red Sea.


Source: https://www.youtube.com/

The Indian media are also monitoring the Chinese military base at Djibouti. In August 2022, satellite pictures of the base showed a Chinese Navy Type-071 landing assault vessel at berth. Subsequent satellite imagery for mid-July 2023, published by CNN, showed no warship in dock in Djibouti.


Chinese base at Djibouti, August 2022.


Close-up of Chinese Navy amphibious assault vessel at berth in Djibouti, August 2020.


US satellite image of July 16, 2023, berths empty -- source: https://edition.cnn.com/

The Chinese Navy’s deployment in the Persian Gulf in October and early November – reported here — appears to have ended, as the two-ship 44th Escort Task Force sailed east and made port in Myanmar. The guided-missile destroyer Zibo and guided-missile frigate Jingzhou had earlier held portcalls and sea drills in Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, and Oman. Before that, the task force had operated in the Gulf of Aden for anti-piracy escort operations over several months. It was then relieved in October by the 45th Escort Task Force. Comprising the Type-052 destroyer, the Urumqi; the Type-547 frigate Linyi and supply ship Dongpinghu, the Chinese naval group was escorting a fleet of Chinese deep-sea fishing trawlers at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 22; the current whereabouts of the warship group has not been reported in the open press.

On November 18 the Linyi was operating with a Pakistan Navy frigate in “the first-ever joint patrol in waters around major maritime routes and port channels in the northern Arabian Sea.” The larger fleet drill with Pakistani vessels concluded on November 18. The two navies called their drill Sea Guardian.

https://johnhelmer.net/running-the-red- ... more-89078

(Duplicate ship photos ain't my fault and cannot corrected until mistake is recognised. Mebbe later.)

******


USS Portland in the Red Sea, October 2021. (Photo: U.S. Navy / Flickr / CC BY 2.0 DEED)

The Red Sea is now the second front in the Gaza war
Originally published: Counterfire on December 19, 2023 by John Rees (more by Counterfire) | (Posted Dec 21, 2023)

Long before it hit mainstream news headlines in the last few days, a conflict has been raging in the Red Sea which could transform Israel’s war on Gaza into a regional conflict. In mid-October, the Houthi movement in Yemen, which controls much of the country, fired drones and cruise missiles at Israel. It took the firepower of the USS Carney, a U.S. warship in the Red Sea, to stop the missiles hitting their target.

The exchange was fleetingly reported in the Western press, but what was not reported was that the battle took place over eight hours. A subsequent missile battle lasted even longer, nine hours.

In the meantime, Houthi missiles have had to be intercepted in outer space, the first ever such encounter, by Israeli defence systems. But it’s what is happening in the sea lanes on the planet below, rather than explosions in space, that is altering the dynamic of the Gaza war.

Yemen commands the access to the Red Sea which itself leads to the Suez Canal. This carries 15% of global shipping. The Houthis are currently stopping all shipping heading to Israeli ports until aid is delivered to Palestinians in Gaza. In a daily series of actions (see map 1) they have redirected tankers and freighters which are Israel bound. They have boarded, captured, and fired missiles at ships that do not respond to their instructions.



The campaign has been devastatingly effective. The world’s largest shipping firms, including Maersk, Belgium’s Euronav, Taiwan’s Evergreen, and Germany’s Hapag Lloyd have abandoned the Red Sea route. So has oil giant BP. The alternative route around South Africa adds thousands of miles, weeks of time, and millions of pounds to shipping costs. Container shipment prices, oil prices, and marine insurance rates are already on the rise.

In response, the United States has launched a whole new military alliance: Operation Prosperity Guardian. Its allies include the UK (without parliamentary agreement), France, Italy, Spain, Bahrain, and the Seychelles. Netanyahu is threatening President Biden that if the U.S. does not act against Yemen, then Israel will. The U.S. aircraft carrier Eisenhower is now in the area, adding to the already substantial Western armada in the sea lanes (see map 2). Both British and French ships have been engaged in firefights with the Houthis.



Escalating war
The widening of the conflict, which the anti-war movement warned against from the very start of the war on Gaza, is replete with dangers. The Houthis are allied with Iran, and this conflict threatens to break the agreement between Iran and the U.S. to stay out of the Gaza conflict. Even more seriously from the US’s point of view, the Houthis will not be an easy opponent. They are battle hardened by their years-long war with Saudi Arabia, a war which even the Western-armed Saudis have had to admit is a failure. Indeed, both the Saudis and the UAE have refused the U.S. invitation to join Operation Prosperity Guardian, because it threatens the uneasy truce with the Houthis. In any case, the Houthis have threatened to hit Saudi oil fields in retaliation for any action taken against them.

And any widening of the conflict in the Red Sea will have other repercussions. A second under-reported conflict in southern Lebanon has been accelerating in recent weeks. Hezbollah has been engaged with the Israelis since the start of the Gaza war. But in the last few days, the Israeli Minister of War has told the Iran-allied group to withdraw from southern Lebanon or the Israeli military will attack them. This, combined with the deterioration of the situation in the Red Sea, will increase the likelihood of Iran agreeing to support a more offensive strategy by both the Houthis and Hezbollah.

Finally, and again massively under-reported, the Iraqi resistance, under a pro-Iranian Iraqi government, has been carrying out a sustained campaign of attacks on U.S. bases both in Iraq and Syria. In many ways, the U.S. is now seeing the Iraq War chickens coming home to roost. It lacks the allies it once had, and some retained allies are now very nervous about the widening conflict. Its enemies are both ideologically and actually battle hardened against it. And Israel, its garrison state in the Middle East, under the extreme-right leadership of Netanyahu, is more difficult to control than ever before.

In the wider world, the U.S. is bleeding credibility with everyone but its most servile allies, as successive UN votes have demonstrated. And the popular revulsion at what Israel is doing with U.S. encouragement is already at levels only previously reached in opposition to the Vietnam and Iraq wars.

The stakes in this conflict are much higher than they were when it began. It is an existential conflict for Gazans, possibly for all Palestinians. But it now seems that it poses similar threats for many millions more.

https://mronline.org/2023/12/21/the-red ... -gaza-war/

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Yemen's dagger slices through 'normalization'

Yemen’s attacks on Israel’s vital shipping routes have compelled the occupation state to seek an alternative land corridor via Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, whose legitimacy is being corroded on the Arab street, while Sanaa's is on the rise.


Mohamad Hasan Sweidan

DEC 20, 2023


Photo Credit: The Cradle

In early December, Israeli media broke the news of an agreement to establish a land bridge between the port of Dubai and the occupied port of Haifa. The reports claim this strategic accord aims to circumvent the growing Yemeni threat to close vital sea lanes to vessels associated with and/or destined for Israeli ports.

Just a fortnight later, the Israeli Walla website revealed that the first shipment, originating from Dubai and traversing the newly established land corridor encompassing the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, had arrived at Israeli ports.

In safeguarding and supporting Israel, these three Arab states have reaffirmed their essential role in protecting and defending the occupation state, enabling it to continue its atrocities against the Palestinians.


Map of the Israel-Gulf land bridge project

Yemen’s Red Sea blockade on Israel

On 15 November, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, leader of Yemen's Ansarallah movement, declared a blockade on Israeli ships passing through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This proclamation marked the initiation of a naval conflict with Israel in solidarity with Gaza, heralding a new phase of confrontation that Israel had anticipated for several years.

Since 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, apprehensive of Ansarallah's presence along the Red Sea coast, asserted Tel Aviv’s commitment to any international effort preventing the closure of shipping routes in the region.

A 2021 report published by Israel's National Security Research Center states that "the possibility of the Houthis attacking ships in shipping lanes along the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Red Sea, or the Gulf of Aden poses a tangible threat to Israeli national security."

The same report states that Yemenis may in the future intercept Israeli ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in order to pressure Israel to change certain policies.

Four days after Houthi’s promise to target Israeli vessels, Yemeni forces seized a transport ship with ties to Israeli tycoon Avraham Ongar, one of the country's wealthiest magnates. Ansarallah-aligned military spokesman Yahya Saree justified the seizure as a response to “heinous acts against our Palestinian brothers in Gaza and the West Bank,” adding:

“If the international community is concerned about regional security and stability, rather than expanding the conflict, it should put an end to Israel’s aggression against Gaza."

On 12 December, Yemen launched a missile strike on a Norwegian oil ship destined for Israel's Ashdod Port in January. Saree explained that the targeting followed the crew's refusal to heed warnings and announced the continuation of ship blockades until Israel permitted essential aid into Gaza. The Pentagon confirmed the interception of Yemeni drones targeting Israeli ships, and called for an international solution to an “international problem.”

Bab al-Mandeb’s strategic significance

The Bab al-Mandab Strait serves as a crucial trade route connecting the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean, with an annual value of approximately $700 billion. This vital waterway sees 4 million barrels of oil passing through daily, representing 10 percent of global maritime trade and supporting the flow of 25,000 ships.

Recent figures for the first half of 2023 show that the Bab al-Mandab handles quantities of crude oil, condensate, and petroleum products equivalent to those passing through the Suez Canal. Similarly, the volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) passing through the strait rivals that of the Suez, which is approximately 4 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

Freightos, an Israeli shipping company, reported a notable 9-14 percent increase in shipping costs from China to the Israeli port of Ashdod in the last two weeks of October. Judah Levin, head of research at Freightos, told the Israeli newspaper Globes that the outbreak of war "is already affecting all goods reaching Israel from China, the prices of which have started to rise in the past few weeks."

The significance of this rise comes from the fact that China is currently Israel's largest trading partner by sea, with seaborne cargo from China amounting to 20 percent of Israel's total maritime imports.

‘Axis of Normalization’ comes to the rescue

Due to Sanaa’s bold move, the perceived threat to Israeli shipping in the Bab al-Mandab has prompted the occupation state to explore alternative routes for importing and exporting goods. Unsurprisingly, the UAE, the Arab county that spearheaded the Abraham Accords' normalization thrust with Israel, has stepped in to assist in overcoming the Yemeni obstacle.


Map of the alternative shipping route to avoid the Red Sea

According to reports from Israeli media, the collaborative effort between the UAE and Israel to set up a land bridge connecting the port of Dubai to Haifa, pass through Saudi Arabia and Jordan. However, Amman has since denied these reports, claiming them to be “absolutely false.”

By mid-December, goods began flowing through this corridor, with Walla reporting the arrival of ten trucks from Dubai to the port of Haifa in recent days. There is no doubt that this corridor offers a strategic solution, allowing ships bound for Israel to bypass the Yemeni threat.

However, its successful implementation only goes to show the willingness of Saudi Arabia and Jordan to be integral parts of this strategic initiative – a move that could further delegitimize their rulers with the overwhelmingly pro-Palestine Arab street. Notably, such a land corridor only requires agreements between the involved parties, while leveraging existing international routes.

The land bridge not only offers an alternative for Chinese ships which transport one-fifth of Israeli seaborne imports, but also reduces the lengthy journey around the south and west of Africa to reach the Strait of Gibraltar from 31 days to 19 days.

Counting the costs

The land route connecting Dubai and Haifa spans 2550 km, with trucks requiring approximately four days to traverse it – a shorter duration compared to ships navigating the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. While the transportation cost per kilometer is slightly higher than the Red Sea route, it is significantly lower than the current cost of shipping through the Strait of Gibraltar.

Despite the cargo capacity limitations of the land corridor (around 350 trucks per day) compared to shipping vessels, it offers expedited transit from Dubai to Europe, saving around 10 transportation days over the Suez Canal route.

But while the corridor might be adequate for meeting Israel’s immediate needs amid Yemeni threats, it falls short of providing a complete alternative for sea routes to Europe. This development suggests that Israel could potentially withdraw from maritime shipping, posing a challenge to Egypt and the Suez Canal.

Further down the line, it is possible that the land corridor may also attract a number of Asian and European states. Egypt, it must be emphasized, begins to lose out as soon as the Dubai-Haifa land route is adopted, as the vessels that circumvent the Red Sea also naturally bypass the Suez route.

However, the greater threat to Egypt's economic interests lies in the prospect of future railway links connecting Dubai with the occupation state, significantly enhancing shipping capacity and reducing costs and transit times.

Yemen stands against Israel

As the land corridor gains traction, reports suggest that risk management firm Ambrey has advised ship owners to assess vessels with Israeli links due to potential mobility challenges. Nevertheless, the commencement of the land corridor stands as a boon for the occupation state and its businessmen by eliminating the need to utilize the Red Sea route.

It should be noted that the adoption of the land corridor opens avenues for Israel to connect with other international corridors through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. The North-South corridor connecting Russia, Iran and India, was linked to Saudi Arabia this year, which can funnel those goods on to Israel now.

That too applies to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which transports goods to and from China through the Pakistani port of Gwadar. From Gwadar, goods travel to UAE ports and then, potentially, through the land corridor to Israel. In this way, the three Arab states, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan, can link Israel to other key international corridors – unless Iran and Pakistan decide to throw a wrench in those works.

What all this makes clear, however, is that Yemen's entry into the frontline battle against Israel and in support of Palestine has reverberated globally. The impoverished nation, despite facing years of conflict, now poses a significant and growing threat to Israel's national security and supply lines through its actions in the Bab al-Mandab.

By aligning its maritime attacks to the cessation of Tel Aviv's horrifying siege of Gaza, Ansarallah has forced the world to pay greater attention to the magnitude of Israel's unprecedented military campaign against Palestinian civilians in Gaza.

Conversely, the collaborative moves by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan to open up a land bridge to Haifa underscores their preference to pander to Israel over buttressing Arab and Muslim solidarity.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/yemen ... malization

Pentagon 'alarmed' over price tag of countering cheap Yemeni drones

The leader of Yemen's Ansarallah resistance group confirmed Washington's actions in the Red Sea threaten war 'with the whole nation'

News Desk

DEC 20, 2023


(Photo Credit: Getty Images)
Concerns about the high cost of countering the threat posed by the Yemeni armed forces in the Red Sea are growing in the Pentagon, according to US defense officials who spoke with POLITICO.

Sanaa has reportedly fired at least 100 drones toward Israeli-linked commercial vessels for the past month in support of the Palestinian people. US estimates place the cost of the domestic-made drones at $2,000 each.

In comparison, each munition used by US warships in the Red Sea cost between $1 million and $4.3 million. The US navy has reportedly shot down at least 38 of the drones fired by Yemen.

"[The high cost] quickly becomes a problem because the most benefit, even if we do shoot down their incoming missiles and drones, is in their favor,” Mick Mulroy, a former US defense official and CIA officer, told POLITICO. “We, the US, need to start looking at systems that can defeat these that are more in line with the costs they are expending to attack us.”

Complicating matters further for Washington, their warships cannot reload their munitions at sea.

On Monday, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the formation of an international maritime task force to counter Yemeni attacks in the Red Sea.

Western media reports say that 19 nations have signed up to the task force, which is called Operation Prosperity Guardian. However, only the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain have been publicly announced as part of the US-led coalition.

"I advise all those countries that the US is trying to get involved for Israel not to take part in their military coalition, not to jeopardize the safety of their navigation lanes in favor of Israel and the US. Why do you have to do that?" the leader of Yemen's Ansarallah resistance movement, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, said during a televised speech on 20 December.

He also confirmed that Washington “must know they are at war with the whole Yemeni nation,” stressing that such a battle “will be much harder than what they faced in Afghanistan and what they suffered in Vietnam.”

The Ansarallah leader further highlighted that only Israeli-linked ships face any danger in the Red Sea. “The exclusive entity targeted by Yemen is Israel […] Maritime navigation is all safe except for the Israeli ships. Our attitude is loud and clear. The misery in Gaza cannot be ignored.”

Yemen's commitment to oppose Israel’s ethnic cleansing campaign in Gaza has led the group to seize an Israeli-linked ship and launch attacks on over a dozen others. The resistance group has also launched missiles at the Israeli port city of Eilat.

Their actions have forced at least six of the world's largest shipping firms to stop operating in the Red Sea.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/penta ... eni-drones

Well, money can always be printed(until in can't...), but the reload/resupply issue noted elsewhere is insurmountable in the medium term.

[blindpig]

BREAKING NEWS: CHINESE, IRANIAN AND INDIAN WARSHIPS ARE NOW IN THE RED SEA, GULF OF ADEN



by John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with

A Russian military blog post posted on Thursday, December 21 at 11:33 Moscow time, has revealed the hitherto secret positions of all warships in the area which the Pentagon has announced for its OPERATION PROSPERITY GUARDIAN.

The fresh data and the open map (lead image) were not available when yesterday’s report was published at 09:32 Moscow time of Russia’s “two-track” strategy for opposing the US and NATO, and for protecting Russian oil shipments while the Houthi drone and missile operations are under way against Israel.

No Russian Navy vessel is in the area at present although Russian crude oil cargoes are moving through the Red Sea with Iranian and Houthi agreement. Because these ship movements are defying US and NATO sanctions, it has been decided in Moscow to negotiate safe passage with Iran and Yemen rather than deploy the Russian Navy to protect them. However, the new combined US and NATO operation, targeting the Houthis and their Iranian support and supply systems, increases the possibility of a direct American, allied, or false-flagged attack on a tanker carrying Russian oil.

In yesterday’s morning report, I indicated that “the current whereabouts of the [Chinese] warship group has not been reported in the open press.”

The Russian source map is now reporting that the Chinese Navy’s 45th Escort Task Force, comprising the Type-052 destroyer Urumqi, the Type-547 frigate Linyi, and supply ship Dongpinghu were at berth at the Chinese base at Djibouti as of Wednesday, December 20.

The Russian map also reveals that the Iranian vessel MV Behshad is in a standing position in the Red Sea (lead image, top left of map). According to the Russian source, it is operating as an electronic surveillance, command and control centre to monitor friendly state ship movements – Russian, Chinese, Indian – and also hostile vessels of the US, British and French navies, tracking their positions; and relaying the data to Iran and probably to shore positions in Yemen. Although US media and Pentagon statements accuse the Ansar Allah government in Yemen and Houthi forces of acting as Iranian proxies in the war against Israel, there has been no disclosure before now of this vessel in the Red Sea.

According to the western vessel tracking service VesselFinder, the Behshad is a “general cargo ship” flagged by Iran. It reportedly sailed from the port of the Iran Shipbuilding and Offshore Industries Complex (ISOICO) to reach its current position, which VesselFinder confirms in the southern half of the Red Sea as of fifteen minutes ago. The western source reports the vessel is at anchor in 6.5 metres of water.

In the Pentagon announcement of December 18, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin claimed that “Operation Prosperity Guardian is bringing together multiple countries to include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with the goal of ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity.” The new Russian intelligence now makes clear that the UK, France and Spain are already in the region, with the US.

After Austin’s statement, his Italian counterpart announced that Italy is dispatching a frigate “to protect the prosperity of trade and guarantee freedom of navigation and international law…to increase the presence in the area in order to create the conditions for stabilization, avoid ecological disasters and also prevent a resumption of the inflationary push.”

The Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias followed the Italian to say that Greece too is sending a frigate to join the US operation. Dendias is claiming the reason is that Greece is “the country with the largest ocean-going fleet [and so] has a primary interest in preserving the freedom of maritime zones and protecting the lives of seafarers.” What he means is that the involvement of Greek shipowners in the sanctions-busting Russian oil trade has been so profitable, Dendias wants to protect the Greek tankers and their owners; and at the same time avoid the embarrassment of being so disloyal to the US and European Union sanctions regime.

For the time being, no Russian Navy vessel is reported in the Red Sea area, although reports indicate that the submarine Ufa is heading eastwards across the Mediterranean with a surface support vessel, and is likely to transit the Suez Canal and the Red Sea soon.


The new improved Kilo-class Ufa in St. Petersburg after commissioning in November 2022. It has been assigned to the Pacific Fleet.

For analysis of current Russian operations, plans, and policy, click to read this.

For the full map display, including the Israeli port of Eilat and the Persian Gulf ports and naval bases, click to open for an enlarged view.


The presence of the Republic of Korea (ROK) Navy’s destroyer Yang Man-chun was reported when it left its home port in September to be for a six-month mission to combat piracy and threats against cargo shipments headed to and from Korea. The map reveals it is currently off the Somali coast, near Indian, British, and US Navy vessels, as well as the Japanese Navy’s destroyer, JS Akebono.

This warship has been in “training” with the USS Mason and the Eisenhower carrier squadron, but the Japanese are claiming it is engaged in “maritime security patrols in the GoA [Gulf of Aden], but is not involved in the new Operation Prosperity Guardian.”


The JS Akebono (rear) and the USS Mason operating together in the Gulf of Aden on November 25.

Operationally, US Navy releases indicate that the Japanese and the Korean destroyers are “working in coordination with U.S. Naval Forces Central Command” to combat both Somali pirates and Houthi operations.

https://johnhelmer.net/wp-content/webpc ... &nocache=1

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Ansarallah: US Will Face Something Tougher in Yemen Than in Afghanistan or Vietnam
DECEMBER 21, 2023


The leader of the Yemeni Revolution, Seyed Abdulmalik Badreddin al-Houthi. Photo: HodHod.

The leader of the Yemeni Revolution referred to the US as “complicit” in Israeli crimes in Gaza and warned it that the US will lose if it goes to war with Yemen for supporting Palestinians.

In his televised speech this Wednesday, December 20, the leader of the Yemeni popular movement Ansarallah, Seyed Abdulmalik Badreddin al-Houthi, condemned the continuous attacks of the Israeli entity and pointed out that the Zionist enemy is using all means of genocidal policies to attempt to exterminate the Palestinian people, including starvation, siege, and blockade and destruction of medical facilities.

The Yemeni leader made it clear that the US is complicit with the Zionists in their crimes from the beginning. The US sent military experts for management and planning and provided the Israelis with thousands of destructive bombs, including internationally banned weapons. Under the terms of its current agreement, the US has provided at least US $2.67 billion to the Zionist colony each year since 1999 in direct military aid. By 2023, this annual amount had risen to over US $3.8 billion.

Within the framework of the US support for” Israel,” the US threatened all countries in the region if they cooperated with Palestine, he said.

By threatening countries in the region, the US sought to provide the Zionists with sufficient conditions to carry out massacres in Gaza without anyone’s objections, he said.

Al-Houthi referred to the United States “another arm of international Jewish Zionism” and criticized the support for Zionism by European countries, including France, Italy, and Germany, each of whom he has a dark history and lengthy, horrific criminal records.

The Ansarallah leader has criticized some Arab-majority countries for ignoring the suffering of the Palestinian people.

In this regard, he has urged Muslims today to take a serious, practical, and effective stance with a sincere approach to support the people of Palestine.

Al-Houthi has praised the correct position that Yemen has taken in supporting the Palestinian people, declaring war on the Israeli enemy, and moving its missiles and forces to attack Israeli colonialism.

“Our people moved militarily in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Arabian Sea to prevent the movement of Israeli ships and ships linked to it to deliver supplies to the Israelis,” he recalled.

Yemen warns of greater and harsher actions against Israel
“We are doing what we can and we strive to achieve greater and more severe actions against the Zionist enemy,” he added, ensuring that Yemen’s legal and moral duty is to support the Palestinian people.

The leader of the Yemeni movement lamented that, unfortunately, some Arab countries are allying themselves with the Zionist enemy and using their military capabilities to protect it from Yemeni missiles instead of acting to protect the Palestinian people.

Al-Houthi has assured that Yemen’s operations in the Red Sea “will not affect international shipping” and will only impact ships linked to the Israeli colony and those transporting goods to the Israeli colony.

Regarding Washington’s announcement to create an anti-Yemeni coalition made up of 10 countries in the Red Sea on Monday, the Yemeni leader has warned that the US measure does not aim to protect international shipping in Bab el-Mandeb but rather seeks to “militarize the Red Sea” and turn it into a battlefield.

Al-Houthi has warned all countries not to allow themselves to be involved in this US coalition and not to sacrifice their interests for the Zionists.

“The recent US measure will not dissuade us in any way from our firm, moral, and principled position that we declared from the beginning together with the Palestinian people,” he said.

Furthermore, Al-Houthi warned that the United States will lose if it commits any “nonsense” against Yemen. “If the Americans send their soldiers to Yemen, let them know that, God willing, they will face something tougher than what they faced in Afghanistan and what they suffered in Vietnam,” he added.

“If the US intends to start a direct war with us, they must understand that we are not a fearful group, but that they are facing an entire people, not a specific group,” he noted.

He has vowed that Yemen will continue to prevent ships linked to its Zionist enemies from sailing through the Red Sea.

Addressing the Palestinian people, he confirmed that the Yemeni people stand in solidarity with Palestine and are prepared for any scenario.

Al-Houthi’s speech took place amid operations carried out by the Yemeni Army against “Israel” to halt the genocide being carried out by the Israeli entity.

Since the start of the Israeli entity’s attacks on the Gaza Strip on October 7, Yemeni forces have carried out several rounds of ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israeli targets in support of the Palestinian people and their Resistance Movement.

In addition, the Yemeni Army has prevented the passage of ships heading to the territories occupied by” Israel” through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, warning that that Israeli-linked ships will become legitimate targets as long as the Zionist colony maintains its blockade of Palestine.

https://orinocotribune.com/ansarallah-u ... r-vietnam/

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The Yemenis Know the U.S. Is Bluffing… Here’s Why

Finian Cunningham

December 22, 2023

America knows the Yemenis are a people that are fearless and are not bluffing. While, on the other hand, the Yemenis know the Americans are bluffing.

The United States has this week announced a multinational navy task force to counter Yemen’s blockade of the Red Sea. The U.S. also warned it is prepared to hit the Arab country with military strikes in retaliation.

The stakes are high. The Yemenis have the vital Red Sea global shipping route under their command from controlling the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait that flows out to the Indian Ocean. The impact of closing this chokepoint on global trade is eye-watering. Hence the Americans and their European allies have sprung into action with threats of retaliation.

In response, the Yemeni armed forces in alliance with the Houthi rebel movement told the Americans to shove it.

The Yemenis warned that they have ballistic missiles to sink any warship or submarine that the U.S. and its allies deploy in the region. The Yemenis added they will continue blocking cargo vessels using the Red Sea route until the genocide in Gaza stops.

Over the past week, Yemen has stepped up its interdiction of cargo ships attempting to transit the Red Sea route. Several major shipping conglomerates have confirmed their vessels are being re-routed around the African continent. The additional transport costs and disruption to supply chains are already hiking price inflation in Western economies, adding to already painful economic woes and political damage for governments held in contempt by hard-pressed populations.

The Yemenis say they are only targeting Israeli-linked ships but it seems that the deterioration in security conditions in the narrow maritime corridor is deterring all shipping companies. The Bab el-Mandeb strait is 32-kilometers wide straddling Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Hundreds of container ships and oil tankers pass through the strait on any given day, ferrying cargo from Asia to Europe through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, the other chokepoint further north in Egypt. If one chokepoint closes, the whole route is closed.

The United States has sought to frame the navy task force as a policing operation to protect international commerce and freedom of navigation.

The Yemenis, however, have said their disruption of Israeli-affiliated shipping is a legitimate action in solidarity with Palestinians.

U.S. Secretary of State Lloyd Austin in announcing the new naval coalition, dubbed Operation Prosperity Guardian, stated. “The recent escalation in reckless Houthi attacks originating from Yemen threatens the free flow of commerce, endangers innocent mariners, and violates international law. The Red Sea is a critical waterway that has been essential to freedom of navigation and a major commercial corridor that facilitates international trade. Countries that seek to uphold the foundational principle of freedom of navigation must come together to tackle the challenge posed by this non-state actor launching ballistic missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) at merchant vessels from many nations lawfully transiting international waters.”

In response, Mohammed Abdel-Salam, a spokesman for Yemen’s Houthi rebels, said: “The American-formed coalition is to protect Israel and militarize the Red Sea without any justification, and will not stop Yemen from continuing its legitimate operations in support of Gaza. We are not making a show of force against anyone [except Israel]. Whoever seeks to expand the conflict must bear the consequences of his actions.”

The Americans are trying to make out that the Yemenis are acting like criminal sea pirates and the U.S.-led task force is nobly serving in the interests of international commerce and peaceful navigation.

Washington and its allies cannot publicly admit that their actions are in support of Israel. The genocidal offensive on Gaza since October 7 in which nearly 20,000 civilians have been murdered is politically untenable for Israel’s Western allies.

The naval task force launched by the U.S. this week includes nine other nations: Britain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Norway, as well as the Seychelles and Bahrain. The latter two are token non-Western parties to give the image that this is not overtly a Western imperialist coalition. Bahrain is where the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet is based in the Persian Gulf, so it makes sense that the tiny monarchy has to be included in simple logistics.

However, the salient thing is that there are no other Gulf Arab nations involved in the task force. Egypt is also absent even though it is a major Red Sea coastal nation as is Saudi Arabia. Their absence belies the official U.S. rationale. If Operation Prosperity Guardian were really about protecting commerce and international shipping then why aren’t Red Sea Arab states joining up? Of course, they are not, because the real purpose of the task force is to aid Israel.

The acute but unspoken conundrum is if Arab states were to join the U.S.-led naval force then it would be politically fatal for the rulers of these states. They would be seen by their populations as supporting the Western-backed Israeli aggression and genocide of Palestinians. That would make America’s Arab allies unstable from internal revolt and perhaps even risk their total collapse. The Arab pillars of the U.S. empire are at risk of falling.

If the Saudis and Egyptians were patrolling the Red Sea with American warships, the Yemenis would be sure to fire missiles at Riyadh and Cairo in retaliation. After all, the Yemenis fought an eight-year with Saudi Arabia from 2015 when the Saudis were militarily supported by the U.S., Britain and France. The Yemenis were undefeated and the Saudis were forced into making a shaky truce over the past year. The Saudis reportedly don’t want to slide back into a war with Yemen that was financially ruinous for the Saudis.

U.S. President Joe Biden is facing a tight reelection contest in less than 11 months. Polls show him losing to Republican contender Donald Trump. That’s a sign of how deeply unpopular Biden is.

The last thing Biden wants is to torpedo his electoral chances by starting a broader war in the Middle East involving U.S. forces directly. Especially if the Yemenis begin sending U.S. warships to the bottom of the Red Sea or Indian Ocean.

If the U.S. were to seriously retaliate against the Yemenis, the conflict would likely escalate with Iran entering the fray in support of their ally Yemen.

That’s why, as this AP report notes, the Pentagon is curiously dancing on a pinhead over the Red Sea. Washington is huffing and puffing, trying to talk tough but ultimately hesitant to use its firepower. The U.S. has an aircraft carrier, USS Dwight Eisenhower, in the Gulf of Aden next to Yemen. But for some reason, it has kept a distance from the marauding Yemeni vessels.

The Yemenis know they have a just cause morally and legally to help Palestinians against the U.S.-backed Israeli genocide. The battle-hardened Yemenis also have demonstrated the courage and resilience against a Western-backed Saudi war of aggression.

Washington knows the Yemenis are a people that are fearless and are not bluffing. While, on the other hand, the Yemenis know the Americans are bluffing.

Bab el-Mandeb translates as “the gateway of tears”. The Americans and their duplicitous allies will be the ones shedding the tears.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/ ... heres-why/

Attacking Yemen Is a Waste of Time, Money and Resources

Declan Hayes

December 22, 2023

Although diplomacy would seem an obvious candidate to help resolve matters, NATO, in its wisdom, long ago discarded that card.

What to do with a problem like Yemen and its 2,000 km (1,200 mile) long Red Sea coastline? And indeed with Eritrea, Djibouti and Somali, all three of which share maritime borders with Yemen.

The issue is that Yemen’s Houthi have decided that all ships using the Red Sea that have any connection, near or far, with Israel, are legitimate targets for its batteries of missiles some of which, as previously discussed, are almost unstoppable ballistic missiles.

The problem is how to sail Israeli and other targeted ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and thence onwards to pay the $500,000-$1,000,000 toll to sail through Egypt’s Suez Canal. This problem is compounded by (Russia’s) dark and grey fleets, which transfer embargoed oil, being allowed free passage and the Chinese, which have a major naval base in nearby Djibouti, playing schlump about the whole matter. NATO’s problem is how to deal with the Houthi, whilst also marginalising China, Iran and Russia, all three of which have very big dogs in this very important fight.

Although diplomacy would seem an obvious candidate to help resolve matters NATO, in its wisdom, long ago discarded that card and China is, in any event, playing a totally different and far more incendiary global game.

On top of all that, NATO’s major shipping lines have their own profiteering demands, which further complicate matters. In essence, those major companies want NATO to escort all its ships, and not just those flying NATO flags, in convoy through the Red Sea. Although that would benefit them, NATO is primarily obliged to protect its own fleet and not the 40% of the world’s ships that fly the flags of open registry countries like Panama, Liberia and the Marshall Islands or, heaven forbid, that transport dark or grey cargo on behalf of Russia and its partners. And, if that were not enough, many non-eligible ships carry military ordnance for NATO and, most likely, Israel as well.

Even if NATO were, like Tom Hanks in Greyhound, to convoy some or all of those ships through the Red Sea, there is no guarantee that they would not be hit there or further up the chain, say in the Suez Canal itself. Although convoys are a risk those large shipping companies should probably run, their extreme risk aversion means they instead prefer to detour past the entire African continent and thereby weaken NATO’s already weak supply chains by needlessly extending them. NATO’s shipping companies are divided on how best to respond and, of course, a house divided cannot stand.

The second and third options are to plonk NATO armadas off the Yemeni coast, to send marines and French legionaries ashore and to bomb the living shit out of the Yemeni, to poke the Houthi hornet’s nest, in other words and make them bleed, something they are long inured to.

Although these are scenarios NATO’s High Command has yet to fully war game out, retired US Vice Admiral James Stavridris, who now fronts the Carlyle Group, summarises the main issues in this revealing article, where he points to the domino effect on global supply chains, where combatting swarms of cheap Houthi (and, later Iranian?) drones is a very expensive proposition and where alternative options to obliterate the Houthi threat are haram.

These other options include arming merchant shipping with appropriate weaponry, a solution that would be unacceptable to any neutral port the ships might like to dock in. Stavridris’ solution, unsurprisingly for NATO’s former military commander, is to bomb the living shit out of Yemen, “to carry out offensive strikes against targets ashore, perhaps using Tomahawk missiles and attack aircraft from the carrier USS Eisenhower, now patrolling the Gulf of Oman.”

All well and good but the Houthi are mobile and they have a lot of real estate to play about in, not only in Yemen itself but in contiguous countries. And that is before we consider Iran’s plans to have giant flotillas of small but highly armed speedboats causing mayhem in nearby waters, should the need arise. You can swat all the Houthi and Iranian mosquitoes you like but you will still get badly bitten.

Stavridris is undeterred by any of that. He believes that if saturation bombing does not work, “it would be entirely appropriate to strike the sponsor — Iran — especially its maritime infrastructure in the north Indian Ocean and the Gulf. This could include oil and gas platforms, port facilities and patrol vessels of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.”

All of which makes eminent sense if the problem is a solitary nail and NATO’s navy is, as it always seems to be, a hammer capable of hammering down only one defenceless group of people at a time.

The issue here is that the Houthi, perhaps in cahoots with Iran, have shown that global supply lines are easily interdicted and Stavridis, Hanks and their Hollywood armadas notwithstanding, NATO and its merchant marine fleet can no longer ride roughshod over even marginal players like the Houthi, Hezbollah and Hamas, never mind Russia and, with regards to Asian waters, China, whose Fishing Militia has helped inspired Iran to form its own Maritime Militia of some 55,000 voluntary forces with 33,000 vessels.

And then there is NATO’s very odd toehold of Djibouti, which is home to military bases belonging to Germany, Spain, Italy, France, the United States, Britain, China, and Saudi Arabia, with Russia and India also being eager to set up shop there. Not only does Djibouti depend on the rents from these bases to stay afloat but Djibouti’s growing national debt is such that she can have no independent diplomatic leverage. Djibouti’s increased debt to China, which promised to make it another Dubai, means that it is a “black box” of a looming danger in the region – a danger that arises from the competition over military bases that goes much beyond the Houthi’s pinpricks.

If the Houthi were not already sufficiently riled up, NATO’s plans to build a Ben Gurion Canal from the Gulf of Aqaba via a flattened Gaza to the Mediterranean is sure to really get up their noses. Leaving all other considerations aside, Aqaba is best known in the West from Lawrence of Arabia, where Hollywood heart throb Peter O’Toole led Arab tribesmen to a famous victory over the Turks embedded there, even though that assault put the infamous Sykes-Picot Agreement to carve up Ottoman Arabia in jeopardy.

Though the consequences of the Sykes Picot Agreement and the related Balfour Declaration still have the noses of the Houthi and very many others out of joint, it seems NATO is prepared to play this game through to the end not only in the Gulf of Suez, the Gulf of Aqaba and the other West Asian choke points the Houthi and their allies have a presence in but much further afield to the Strait of Malacca and the Taiwan Strait as well. And, though the hammer happy US Vice Admiral James Stavridris no doubt has a solution for them factored around Tomahawk missiles, US marines and French paratroopers, one can only surmise that NATO’s adventurism in the Red Sea is the latest of several nails it is hammering into its own coffin.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/ ... resources/

[blindpig]

RUSSIAN IDENTIFICATION OF HOUTHI TANKER TARGET IN INDIAN OCEAN – HOW THE WESTERN MEDIA ARE PROTECTING THE ISRAELIS



by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

From the minute after the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and the UK Maritime Trade Organisation (UKMT) learned that the oil tanker MV Chem Pluto had been hit by an exploding drone in the Indian Ocean 1,600 kilometres east of the Red Sea and Yemen coast (lead image, left), they also knew why. Through a joint venture between a Japanese and a Singapore holding company operating through a Dutch management cutout, the vessel is owned by Idan Ofer, an Israeli shipping magnate (lead image, right).

The Chem Pluto strike is the second by a drone against one of Ofer’s vessels in the Indian Ocean. The first strike was on November 24, when the container carrier CMA CGM Symi was targeted in the northeastern sector of the Indian Ocean. The Symi is owned by Ofer’s Eastern Pacific Shipping in Singapore.

On December 18, drone strikes were reported by CENTCOM against the Swan Atlantic oil tanker and the bulker MV Clara. The first vessel is owned by a Norwegian company but management, with hidden equity, belongs to the Israeli Zodiac group, owned by Idan Ofer’s brother, Eyal Ofer. The second vessel, the Clara, is owned and managed by a German company, Johann MK Blumenthal; no Israeli trace has been found to date, but the Houthis have yet to make a mistake in spotting and hitting Israeli ships.

On November 19 they did more than that. On that day an Israeli-owned car carrier, Galaxy Leader, was captured by Houthi commandos in the Red Sea. Follow their operation as they filmed it; here is the vessel now receiving tourists at anchor off Al-Salif port, Yemen. Ownership by the Israeli Abraham Ungar was concealed behind a Japanese ship management entity and a company registered under the Isle of Man-headquartered Ray Car Carriers, which in turn is owned by a Tel Aviv company called Ray Shipping.

Houthi political and military spokesmen have repeatedly made clear they are attacking Israeli shipping, as well as vessels of any nationality trading in and out of Israel’s ports. “Israeli ships are legitimate targets for us anywhere… and we will not hesitate to take action,” Major General Ali Al-Moshki, a Houthi military official, said on the group’s television station on November 20, following the capture of the Galaxy Leader.

“If Gaza does not receive the food and medicine it needs, all ships in the Red Sea bound for Israeli ports, regardless of their nationality, will become a target for our armed forces,” a Houthi press statement declared on December 9.

CENTCOM and Pentagon releases to the press have also claimed to have intercepted Houthi drone and missile attacks on US warships in the Red Sea attempting to protect the Israeli-owned or Israel-bound shipping.

Less successful in hitting Israel’s Red Sea port of Eilat, the Houthi campaign has been effective in cutting off the port by striking at vessels in the Red Sea, and then extending the range of strikes to the eastern Indian Ocean. Eilat accounts for 45% of car imports to Israel and 5% of all the goods imported to Israel by sea. The Houthi campaign has cut Eilat’s port revenue by 80% since October 7.

The impact has expanded to all shipping in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Indian Ocean if their management and ownership are based in the US and the European states allied with Israel in the Gaza war, and also with the US in the war against Russia in the Ukraine.

It is this coalition of states which US Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin attempted to rally for naval convoy and counter-threat operations on December 18, calling the plan OPERATION PROSPERITY GUARDIAN.

This operation is now coming apart in recriminations because commercial vessel owners in France, Spain, and Italy have accepted that if they negotiate Israel-boycott deals directly with the Houthis, they can continue to operate through the Red Sea. They resent the commercial competition from Russia and China which are operating oil tankers and dry-cargo carriers without hindrance or threat.

The obviousness of the targeting by the Houthis, and of Houthi deal-making by the Russians and Chinese, are being concealed, however, in the US and UK maritime industry media and the mainstream press. They are advocating maximum use of force by the Israel and US-led operation in the region to attack both Houthi and Iranian targets.

In the most recent strike, the Israeli oil tanker Chem Pluto was hit on Saturday, December 23, by a drone about 1,600 kilometres east of the Yemen coast; about 200 kilometres west of the Indian coast. Initial media reporting claimed the vessel was “affiliated” to Israel but emphasized that it was owned by a Japanese entity and managed by a Dutch one. The Indian media claimed the drone strike had come from the Iranian intelligence vessel MV Safiz reportedly 87 kilometres away from the Chem Pluto.

Late on Saturday evening, the Russian military blogger Boris Rozhin reported: “The Chem Pluto tanker hit by the drone belonged to Israeli oligarch Idan Ofer and was flying the flag of Liberia. The drone arrived 200 miles from the Indian port of Verawal. There was a fire on board, but the crew managed to put it out. This strike shows that attacks on Israeli vessels can be carried out not only in the Red Sea or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but also in the Indian Ocean. At the same time, the flags that the Houthis go after are ignored – ownership structure is the priority. If the owner is associated with Israel, the ship immediately becomes a potential target.” This Russian publication was datelined December 23 at 22:37 Moscow time.

TradeWinds, an Oslo-based maritime publication which used to be pro-Russian so long as it was receiving advertising and sponsorship money from Sovcomflot, the Russian state shipping company, picked up on the story a day later. According to TradeWinds, “the Chem Pluto is operated by Amsterdam-based Ace Quantum, according to data from Equasis. The company is a joint venture of Ace Tankers and Eastern Pacific Shipping, which is owned by Israeli billionaire Idan Ofer. The ship is listed as owned by Sansho Kaiun of Japan, with technical management by Fleet Management.” This disclosure was published on December 24 at 1804 Greenwich Mean Time (GMT).

Equasis, the data source for tracing the Chem Pluto to Ofer, is the creation of the European Commission and the French Maritime Administration, which set up the website and database in 2000 to “promote the exchange of unbiased information and transparency in maritime transport and thus allow persons involved in maritime transport to be better informed about the performance of ships and maritime organisations with which they are dealing.” With the exception of Brazil, Equasis is a US-allied operation.



The allies knew at once that the Chem Pluto had been targeted because it was Israeli-owned. However, the Pentagon, the Voice of America, and UK propaganda continue to pretend that the Houthi targeting is not tied to the Israel Defence Forces’ operations in Gaza, and carefully restricted to Israeli and allied targets.

TradeWinds has reported the
Source: https://www.tradewindsnews.com/

The western news agencies and the Anglo-American maritime media appear not to be aware of the capabilities of Algeria, whose parliament has authorized the government to take unspecified military measures against Israel. Algeria’s military is also collaborating closely and recently with the Russian Navy.

The possibility of a drone attack on an Israeli vessel near the Gibraltar Strait has not yet dawned publicly, not at least in the mainstream and maritime industry media. More than 100,000 vessels transit through the Gibraltar Strait each year. If Israeli-owned and international shipping are now blocked from reaching either Eilat or Haifa and Ashdod from the east through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, the Gibraltar Strait in the west is the gateway remaining. This is acknowledged by Israeli experts. “According to Dr. Elyakim BenHakoun from the Industrial Engineering and Management Faculty at the Technion Institute of Technology, about 99% of goods (in terms of cargo volume) reach Israel by sea, and around 40% of the cargo arriving in Israel passes through the Suez Canal…the consequence of stopping ship traffic in the Red Sea is to circumnavigate Africa, leading to an extension of shipping times by approximately two weeks to a month, depending on the destination region, vessel speed, and ship category. This roughly translates to an additional cost of $400,0000-$1 million per ship.”


From Gibraltar (left) to Haifa and Ashdod (right), Israel’s leading cargo ports, is a distance of almost 2,300 nautical miles (4,300 kilometres), and at 10 knots vessel speed takes 9.5 days. Right, satellite image of Ashdod. A US Centre for Naval Analyses study of 2011 estimated severe economic damage to Israel from an oil cutoff at the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. It added that “we are not aware of estimates of the flow of oil through the Strait of Gibraltar. However, a disruption to the Strait of Gibraltar is likely to have similar economic effects on the United States as a disruption to either the Suez Canal or the Bab el-Mandeb.”

https://johnhelmer.net/russian-identifi ... more-89118

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DECEMBER 24, 2023 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
US’ war on terror against Houthis is smoke and mirrors


A November 20, 2023 file photo of a Houthi military helicopter flying over Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea

The United States has hosted the first meeting of the new working group on terrorism in the Quad format in Honolulu, Hawaii, on December 19-21. The QUAD working group on terrorism was constituted in March at the foreign minister level meeting in New Delhi hosted by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

The joint statement issued after the March meeting had noted “with deep concern that terrorism has become increasingly diffuse, aided by terrorists’ adaptation to, and the use of emerging and evolving technologies such as unmanned aerial systems and the internet, including social media platforms for recruitment and incitement to commit terrorist acts, as well as for the financing, planning, and preparation of terrorist activities.”

While announcing the establishment of the Quad Working Group on Counter-Terrorism, the joint statement flagged that it “will explore cooperation amongst the Quad, and with Indo-Pacific partners, to counter new and emerging forms of terrorism, radicalisation to violence and violent extremism.”

A state department statement on Friday following the inaugural meeting of the working group underscored that the focus of the discussion was on “enhancing Quad cooperation in response to an overwhelming terrorist incident in the Indo-Pacific region.” [Emphasis added.]

The state department statement further said that the discussions pertained to “presentations and a tabletop exercise focused on exchanging information on ever-evolving terrorism threats, further developing regional coordination mechanisms, and countering terrorist use of emerging technologies. Participants (the four Quad countries) explored what capabilities and support the Quad could offer, and how the Quad might coordinate in order to support the existing capacities of Indo-Pacific countries.”

It does not need much ingenuity to figure out that the US’ focus is on the developing situation in the Red Sea where a US-led coalition of the willing is struggling to take on the challenge to maritime shipping posed by the indomitable Houthis of Yemen.

The Houthis have an old score to settle with Israel on account of the latter’s repeated covert interventions in the civil war in Yemen dating back to the 1960s on account of that country’s great importance in the eyes of Israeli strategists as Israel’s outlet to the Indian Ocean and the Far East, which is today compounded by Houthis’ support for the rights of Palestinians and refusal to normalise with Israel.

In April 2018, the UAE, taking advantage of the instability and the lack of a central government in Yemen, simply occupied that country’s Socotra island, backed by tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery. UAE has since annexed the Socotra island and in a joint project with Israel is trying to build a military base there which would be hosting Israeli soldiers, officers, and other military experts and personnel in a project to exercise military control over maritime routes and intelligence operations against Iran.

To be sure, insecure conditions affecting maritime traffic to the Suez Canal will be hugely consequential to the world economy in multiple ways — international trade and supply chains, oil market and so on. But behind the barrage of propaganda, the actual American intentions may go well beyond that. The demonisation of the Houthis provides a cloud cover to obfuscate what is in reality an incredibly complex matrix.

According to an analysis in the American think tank Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Israel has plans to deploy submarines east of Suez. Clearly, the military base in Socotra will be ideal for Israeli submarines for force projection in the Arabian Sea. Unsurprisngly, the Houthis are furious about their country’s loss of sovereignty over Socotra and the island’s transformation as an Israeli outpost with tacit American support. This is one thing.

The regional states are chary of associating with the US-led coalition of the willing to deploy naval forces in the Red Sea to preserve Israeli interests under the garb of protecting ‘freedom of navigation’. The Houthis will not compromise with Israel and the regional states tread warily so as not get caught in the crossfire. The Houthis have a well-earned reputation for being tough fighters, and in this case, they are also a highly motivated lot with adrenaline flowing in their veins having resisted the Saudi-Emirati-US war to erase them from their country’s political landscape.

From a geopolitical perspective, the US has strong reasons to dominate the Red Sea where China has a naval base in Djibouti and Washington has been fuelling the civil war in Sudan to keep the country on the boil and block Russia’s plans to set up a submarine base. Another littoral state Eritrea occupies a key strategic position on the eastern side of the Red Sea, which has strong economic, diplomatic and military ties with China and Russia.

Indeed, the US efforts failed miserably to overthrow the democratically elected Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, the largest country in the Horn of Africa, who is aligned to Russia. Suffice to say, the US has not a single friend or ally left today in the entire eastern part of the Red Sea.



The big question is whether the US ploy to drag QUAD — and along with that, India — into the Red Sea will succeed. This is in some ways a replay of history when resisting pressure from the George W. Bush administration, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government refused to join the US-led coalition of the willing to invade Iraq in 2003. In retrospect, that proved to be a wise decision. Then, as now, there are influential interest groups in Delhi who would probably argue for Indian participation in the US-led ‘war on terror’ against the Houthis.

In fact, the Indian spokesman’s ambivalent remarks at a press briefing on Thursday cause some unease: “Look, India has always, of course, you know, we have vested interests and have been supportive of the free movement of commercial shipping. So that is something that we are interested in. We are, of course, monitoring the developments there. Insofar as I think there was…we are also, as you know, as part of efforts globally to…international efforts to ensure free shipping, whether it be against piracy or otherwise, India has been involved in it. So we will continue to monitor that. I think, there was some communication regarding this task force or the operation, but I would have to get back to you regarding any specific development on that issue, because I am not aware of whether, you know, there has been any specific invitation or we have been asked to join or we have agreed to join. As I said, this is a new initiative and we will have to get back to you as soon as we have something to convey on that. But let me emphasise that we have been part of efforts to ensure the safe transit of ships in the Arabian Sea and we value the free movement of commercial shipping. I am not aware of any conversations with any specific country, certainly Iran or Yemen…”

Meanwhile, what should be carefully noted is that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu telephoned Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday coinciding with the QUAD working group’s meeting in Hawaii. Modi wrote later that during a “productive” exchange of views on the “ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict” with Netanyahu, the two had “shared concerns” about maritime traffic. Modi’s post did not delve into specifics while the Israeli version claimed that Modi “noted that freedom of navigation is an essential global necessity that must be ensured”.

Stakes are indeed high for Israel to give ballast to the US-led coalition in the Red Sea. The US and Israel are desperate to rope in India in their upcoming ill-fated ‘war on terror’ against Yemen, a civilisational state, so as to give their risky enterprise a regional habitation and name.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-war- ... d-mirrors/

[blindpig]

The ‘Gulf’ widens as GCC states differ on US strategy against Yemen

The US-led Red Sea coalition's shaky start reveals the Persian Gulf's vastly divergent views on the maritime force's utility, with differences set to intensify as aggressions kick off.


Khalil Harb

DEC 27, 2023


Photo Credit: The Cradle

More than a week has passed since US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin unveiled the multi-national naval task force Operation Prosperity Guardian to counter operations by Yemen's Ansarallah-aligned armed forces in the Red Sea to blockade Israel-bound vessels in response to the war on Gaza.

However, the mission's nature, objectives, and members - including Bahrain - have become increasingly ambiguous. While Manama announced its participation, the absence of fellow Gulf Coorporation Council (GCC) members Saudi Arabia and the UAE raises intriguing questions.

Even Bahrain’s motives are hazy, given that it lacks any naval fleet of military significance, and relies on small vessels and combat forces for its own maritime defenses. As such, skepticism surrounds the extent of the tiny Persian Gulf emirate's actual military contribution.

Bahrain has Israel’s back

One Bahraini opposition leader, speaking to The Cradle on the condition of anonymity, describes Manama’s participation as "the necessity of what is not necessary." The leader points to Bahrain's complex loyalties to the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel, in addition to its GCC membership as likely reasons for its odd decision.

The Bahraini government's stance, especially amid Israel’s genocidal onslaught in Gaza, has shocked many within the country, in spite of its unpopular decision in 2020 to normalize relations with the occupation state. Under pressure, however, Manama did recall its ambassador from Tel Aviv and temporarily suspended economic relations on 2 November - though the Israelis claim they had not been officially informed of the withdrawal of the Bahraini ambassador and say relations between the two countries are stable.

A well-informed Bahraini source informs The Cradle that this detached position aligns with the government's policy since signing the UAE-led and Washington-brokered Abraham Accords. The government, he says, has sought to adopt a neutral stance on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, not recognizing it as a struggle against occupation and overlooking its significance to Arab national security.

“This policy, first, was expressed by the Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, when he described what Hamas has done as a terrorist act, and at the same time condemned the Israeli massacres in an attempt to maintain a neutral center.”

The source further points out that Bahrain's alignment with Abu Dhabi’s policy reflects a shift towards “the Emirati orbit over the Saudi one.” This is evident in its delayed reconciliation with Qatar, initiated by Riyadh but met with hesitation in Manama. Likewise, the UAE had a slower approach to restoring relations with Doha than the Saudis.

Submissive stance to US influence

Bahrain has a historical role as a key US military ally since 1995, when it opened large areas of its small territory to establish regional headquarters for the US Fifth Fleet. Today, those facilities include an aircraft carrier, several submarines, naval destroyers, dozens of fighter jets, thousands of American soldiers, and their residential headquarters within this military base, which is considered one of the largest centers of the US military outside the United States.

According to the aforementioned Bahraini source, the Manama-based US naval force serves as "an advanced American base to carry out Washington's intelligence and military work in the region, and its presence reflects the latter's dominance over the political decision in the Kingdom when the need arises."

Bahrain is also the headquarters of the Joint Maritime Force, established in 2001 to confront the so-called “threat of international terrorism.” The force includes 39 countries, including Britain, which has established an expanded military occupation on the territory of Bahrain, specifically at Juffair Naval Base since 2018, which represented Britain's first military base in West Asia in four decades.

The Bahraini source explains that while the US and UK have all the resources they need in the Persian Gulf to run the new anti-Yemen maritime themselves, what they really needed was Arab cover for these hostile activities:

"In essence, Washington does not need Bahraini forces to secure navigation in the region while it has more than 30,000 soldiers in the Gulf and it can manage these operations from its various military bases, but it needs Arab cover after many Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, rejected Arab and Gulf legitimacy (publicly) for this alliance."

It is a risky move for Manama. Bahrain's participation in the naval coalition is unlikely to yield positive outcomes for the state and could pose threats to its strategic security, particularly if Yemen's Ansarallah forces decide to retaliate against Prosperity Guardian’s strikes.

Targeting Bahrain would be “low-hanging fruit” for the Yemenis, not just because it is small and largely defenseless on its own, but also because it hosts bases for leading western aggressors - the US and UK.

As the opposition leader explains to The Cradle:

Manama also "risks facing further isolation and internal separation, given that the people of Bahrain are unanimous in rejecting the Israeli occupation, covering for it, or working to achieve its interests at the expense of the Palestinian people."

Bahrain's decision to participate in the US-led coalition, despite GCC leaders Saudi Arabia's own refusal over security concerns, only goes to show the extent of Bahrain's submission to US hegemony and its new ally Israel. Says another Bahraini source:

"There is no justification for Bahraini participation at a time when Saudi Arabia, its major neighbor, for security considerations rejects confronting Ansarallah and maintains its position on the massacres committed against the Palestinians."

Riyadh's recalibration

The absence of Saudi Arabia from the coalition is especially noteworthy. Disillusioned by past US policies, including the Arab Spring and the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, Riyadh now seems inclined towards a reconciliation with Tehran and has ratcheted up relations with US adversaries Moscow and Beijing, marking a shift in its regional and global strategic considerations.

Rather than deeply engaging in efforts against Israeli aggression or the Iran-led Axis of Resistance, Saudi Arabia appears more focused on dialing down regional conflicts, particularly its own eight-year war against Yemen. The kingdom has welcomed the UN's road map for peace and Omani-brokered negotiations with Sanaa, indicating a desire to exit the devastating war and shift its focus away from a heavy reliance on US support.

For the Saudis, the ongoing war in Gaza and Yemen’s prominent role in the regional resistance axis present an opportunity to extricate itself from the war against its southern neighbor, in which it is emphasizing a local settlement between Yemeni parties and the Sanaa government led by Ansarallah.

Riyadh showed its direction early, in November, by hosting the Arab-Islamic summit to “dutifully”show solidarity with Gaza without actually taking meaningful action. The Saudis appear uninterested in engaging too heavily in the fracas, whether to halt Israeli aggressions or to confront the "axis of resistance" in whose ranks Yemenis are a vital player.

Stability after all, is crucial for Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s Vision2030 and its ambitious projects such as NEOM, Expo 2030, and the 2034 FIFA World Cup, prompting a reconsideration of its involvement in yet another US-led regional aggression that offers little upside.

UAE's geostrategic considerations

The UAE, known for its strategic calculations, appears to be treading much more cautiously in the regional confrontation, and is playing a strong role behind the scenes. When Ansarallah threatened sea lanes, the UAE moved to develop a land bridge through Saudi and Jordanian territories to Israel for the transportation of goods from East Asia.

Although risky for Abu Dhabi to so openly aid Israel's economy while Tel Aviv imposes a draconian siege on Palestinians in Gaza, by doing so, the UAE has significantly boosted its economic and political value to the occupation state. In this, the Emiratis have displayed a steadfastness to normalization that could trigger dangerous repercussions should regional confrontation escalate.

Considering the potential backlash, the Emiratis are hesitant to openly support Israel through military naval power, fearing Yemeni and broader Arab and Muslim resentment. Abu Dhabi prioritizes its image as a safe and stable oasis, mindful of Ansarallah's missile and drone attacks from just a year ago.

Essentially, the Persian Gulf state aim to avoid jeopardizing their security interests by engaging in ambiguous military actions that could undermine their carefully crafted narrative of stability and progress.

The fate and feasibility of Operation Prosperity Guardian is currently shrouded in uncertainty, particularly in light of recent setbacks and the withdrawal of crucial western allies from participating under a US command.

The divisions among Persian Gulf states regarding the maritime coalition further highlight a region awakening to the realization that Washington's dominance is no longer as unassailable as it once seemed. The emerging awareness suggests that Yemen and other members of the Resistance Axis possess the capability to impose a new equation against Israel.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-g ... inst-yemen

Hesitation among US allies leaves Operation Prosperity Guardian in dire straits

Nearly half of the countries announced as part of the anti-Yemen alliance have refused to come forward to acknowledge their contributions, while most others have only confirmed the deployment of staff officers

News Desk

DEC 28, 2023


(Photo Credit: US Navy)

Ten days after US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the formation of an international task force to patrol the Red Sea, about half of the nations named as participants have yet to acknowledge their role, while others have pushed back against Austin's declaration.

Under the name Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), Washington's “coalition of the willing” was intended to confront attacks by the Yemeni armed forces against Israeli-linked ships attempting to cross the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

However, only two US allies have deployed warships to the Yemeni coast to support the coalition: the UK, which sent the navy destroyer HMS Diamond, and Greece, which announced the deployment of a Hellenic navy frigate.

Canada, Norway, and the Netherlands confirmed their participation in OPG but have so far committed only a handful of staff officers. Similarly, the Seychelles ratified their support for the coalition but clarified: “Our participation will not include putting boats or military personnel to patrol in the Red Sea. Our role is to help in providing and receiving information since many things that happen close by can have an implication for us.”

Authorities in Bahrain – the only Gulf nation named as part of the pro-Israel alliance – have not commented on their role in OPG, despite the fact that the US war chief announced the coalition's creation from the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama. Last week, Bahraini police detained a prominent opposition figure who criticized the government for joining OPG.

Complicating matters further for the Pentagon, the last three NATO members named as part of the alliance – Spain, Italy, and France – have outright refused to hand over command of their ships to the US.

The French defense ministry said last week it supported efforts to “secure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.” Still, it highlighted that its navy already operated in the region and its ships would stay under French command. Italy took a similar approach, committing the naval frigate Virginio Fasan to patrol the Red Sea but emphasizing that this was part of “existing operations” and not OPG.

Spain has been the most vocal in its rejection of being named part of the anti-Yemen alliance, vetoing a vote at the EU that called for support of the coalition and making it clear that its forces committed to Operation Atalanta – a counter-piracy operation off the Horn of Africa and in the Western Indian Ocean – would not join OPG.

"Spain is not opposed to creating another operation, in this case in the Red Sea. We have communicated to our allies, both in NATO and in the EU, that we consider Operation Atalanta does not have the characteristics nor the nature that is demanded and needed in the Red Sea,” President Pedro Sanchez said on 27 December.

While the Pentagon last week proclaimed “over 20 nations” had joined OPG, reports have shown that more of Washington's closest partners are balking at the idea of joining war efforts in the Red Sea.

On 21 December, Australia announced it would be sending personnel to join OPG, but no warships or planes. India has also balked at the plan, with a senior military official revealing to Reuters that New Delhi is “unlikely to join" the US alliance.

Nonetheless, earlier this week, the Indian navy deployed several warships to the Arabian Sea in response to an alleged drone attack on an Israeli-linked vessel.

Saudi Arabia has also shown no interest in the venture, as the Gulf kingdom is reportedly more interested in ending its eight-year war in Yemen than in re-starting hostilities.

Yemen's Red Sea operations in support of Palestinians in Gaza have significantly hurt the Israeli import sector, as the vital Port of Eilat has seen an 85 percent drop in activity. According to Bloomberg, half of the container ships that regularly transit the Red Sea and Suez Canal are avoiding the route now.

However, marine traffic data shows that the transit of non-western tankers through the Red Sea has surged since the Yemeni armed forces began targeting Israeli-linked vessels.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/hesit ... re-straits

[blindpig]

How Yemen changed everything

In a single move, Yemen's Ansarallah has checkmated the west and its rules-based order.


Pepe Escobar

DEC 28, 2023


Photo Credit: The Cradle

Whether invented in northern India, eastern China or Central Asia – from Persia to Turkestan – chess is an Asian game. In chess, there always comes a time when a simple pawn is able to upset the whole chessboard, usually via a move in the back rank whose effect simply cannot be calculated.

Yes, a pawn can impose a seismic checkmate. That’s where we are, geopolitically, right now.

The cascading effects of a single move on the chessboard – Yemen’s Ansarallah stunning and carefully targeted blockade of the Red Sea – reach way beyond global shipping, supply chains, and The War of Economic Corridors. Not to mention the reduction of the much lauded US Navy force projection to irrelevancy.

Yemen's resistance movement, Ansarallah, has made it very clear that any Israel-affiliated or Israel-destined vessel will be intercepted. While the west bristles at this, and imagines itself a target, the rest of the world fully understands that all other shipping is free to pass. Russian tankers – as well as Chinese, Iranian, and Global South ships – continue to move undisturbed across the Bab al-Mandeb (narrowest point: 33 km) and the Red Sea.

Only the Hegemon is disturbed by this challenge to its 'rules-based order.' It is outraged that western vessels delivering energy or goods to law-breaking Israel can be impeded, and that the supply chain has been severed and plunged into deep crisis. The pinpointed target is the Israeli economy, which is already bleeding heavily. A single Yemeni move proves to be more efficient than a torrent of imperial sanctions.

It is the tantalizing possibility of this single move turning into a paradigm shift – with no return – that is adding to the Hegemon’s apoplexy. Especially because imperial humiliation is deeply embedded in the paradigm shift.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the record, is now sending an unmistakeable message: Forget the Suez Canal. The way to go is the Northern Sea Route – which the Chinese, in the framework of the Russia-China strategic partnership, call the Arctic Silk Road.



Map of North-East and North-West Passage shipping routes

For the dumbfounded Europeans, the Russians have detailed three options: First, sail 15,000 miles around the Cap of Good Hope. Second, use Russia's cheaper and faster Northern Sea Route. Third, send the cargo via Russian Railways.

Rosatom, which oversees the Northern Sea Route, has emphasized that non-ice-class ships are now able to sail throughout summer and autumn, and year-round navigation will soon be possible with the help of a fleet of nuclear icebreakers.

All that as direct consequences of the single Yemeni move. What next? Yemen entering BRICS+ at the summit in Kazan in late 2024, under the Russian presidency?

The new architecture will be framed in West Asia

The US-led Armada put together for Operation Genocide Protection, which collapsed even before birth, may have been set up to “warn Iran,” apart from giving Ansarallah a scare. Just as the Houthis, Tehran is hardly intimidated because, as West Asia analyst ace Alastair Crooke succinctly put it: “Sykes-Picot is dead.”

This is a quantum shift on the chessboard. It means West Asian powers will frame the new regional architecture from now on, not US Navy “projection.”

That carries an ineffable corollary: those eleven US aircraft carrier task forces, for all practical purposes, are essentially worthless.

Everyone across West Asia is well aware that Ansarallah’s missiles are capable of hitting Saudi and Emirati oil fields, and knocking them out of commission. So it is little wonder that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi would never accept becoming part of a US-led maritime force to challenge the Yemeni resistance.

Add to it the role of underwater drones now in the possession of Russia and Iran. Think of fifty of these aimed at a US aircraft carrier: it has no defense. While the Americans still have very advanced submarines, they cannot keep the Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea open to western operators.

On the energy front, Moscow and Tehran don’t even need to think – at least not yet – about using the “nuclear” option or cutting off potentially at least 25 percent, and up, of the world oil supply. As one Persian Gulf analyst succinctly describes it, “that would irretrievably implode the international financial system.”

For those still determined to support the genocide in Gaza there have been warnings. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has mentioned it explicitly. Tehran has already called for a total oil and gas embargo against nations that support Israel.

A total naval blockade of Israel, meticulously engineered, remains a distinct possibility. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami said Israel may “soon face the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, the Strait of Gibraltar, and other waterways.”

Keep in mind we’re not yet even talking about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; we’re still on Red Sea/Bab al-Mandeb.

Because if the Straussian neo-cons in the Beltway get really unhinged by the paradigm shift and act in desperation to “teach a lesson” to Iran, a chokepoint Hormuz-Bab al-Mandeb combo blockade might skyrocket the price of oil to at least $500 a barrel, triggering the implosion of the $618 trillion derivatives market and crashing the entire international banking system.

The paper tiger is in a jam

Mao Zedong was right after all: the US may be in fact a paper tiger. Putin, though, is way more careful, cold, and calculating. With this Russian president, it’s all about an asymmetric response, exactly when no one is expecting it.

That brings us to the prime working hypothesis perhaps capable of explaining the shadow play masking the single Ansarallah move on the chessboard.

When Pulitzer-winning investigative journalist Sy (Seymour) Hersh proved how Team Biden blew up the Nord Stream pipelines, there was no Russian response to what was, in effect, an act of terrorism against Gazprom, against Germany, against the EU, and against a bunch of European companies. Yet Yemen, now, with a simple blockade, turns global shipping upside down.

So what is more vulnerable? The physical networks of global energy supply (Pipelineistan) or the Thalassocracy, states that derive their power from naval supremacy?

Russia privileges Pipelineistan: see, for instance, the Nord Streams and Power of Siberia 1 and 2. But the US, the Hegemon, always relied on its thalassocratic power, heir to “Britannia rules the waves.”

Well, not anymore. And, surprisingly, getting there did not even entail the “nuclear” option, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Washington games and scaremongers like crazy.

Of course we won’t have a smoking gun. But it’s a fascinating proposition that the single Yemeni move may have been coordinated at the highest level between three BRICS members – Russia, China, and Iran, the neocon new “axis of evil” – plus other two BRICS+, energy powerhouses Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As in, “if you do it, we’ve got your back”.

None of that, of course, detracts from Yemeni purity: their defense of Palestine is a sacred duty.

Western imperialism and then turbo-capitalism have always been obsessed with gobbling up Yemen, a process that Isa Blumi, in his splendid book Destroying Yemen, described as “necessarily stripping Yemenis of their historic role as the economic, cultural, spiritual, and political engine for much of the Indian Ocean world.”

Yemen, though, is unconquerable and, true to a local proverb, “deadly” (Yemen Fataakah). As part of the Axis of Resistance, Yemen's Ansarallah is now a key actor in a complex Eurasia-wide drama that redefines Heartland connectivity; and alongside China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the India-Iran-Russia-led International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), and Russia's new Northern Sea Route, also includes control over strategic chokepoints around the Mediterranean Seas and the Arabian peninsula.

This is another trade connectivity paradigm entirely, smashing to bits western colonial and neocolonial control of Afro-Eurasia. So yes, BRICS+ supports Yemen, who with a single move has presented Pax Americana with The Mother of All Geopolitical Jams.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/how-y ... everything

No Yemen peace deal without KSA at the table: Ansarallah

An Ansarallah official stated that Saudi Arabia must be a direct party to the deal, rather than a mediator between competing Yemeni governments

News Desk

DEC 28, 2023


People of Yemen hold up posters of Lebanon's Hezbollah leader and a major figure of the Axis of Resistance, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, during a demonstration to commemorate Ashura in Sanaa, Yemen October 12, 2016. (Photo credit: Reuters)

The Ansarallah resistance movement will not sign any peace agreement to end the eight-year Yemen war in which Saudi Arabia is not a direct party, Russia’s Sputnik reported on 28 December.

“The group’s leadership refuses to sign any agreement in which Saudi Arabia is a mediator and not a main party,” an anonymous Ansarallah official stated to the Russian news outlet, without providing further details.

Yemen is split between multiple competing governments. Ansarallah governs Yemen’s central and northern governorates. These are the most populous regions of Yemen and include the capital Sanaa.

The Saudi-backed Yemeni government and UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council rule the remainder of the country.

But the war that began in 2015 was effectively between Ansarallah on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and UAE on the other. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also enjoyed support from the US and UK in bombing Yemen as they sought to dislodge Ansarallah and impose their preferred government on Yemen.

The war killed tens of thousands, while hundreds of thousands died due to disease and hunger in the world’s worst humanitarian crisis in decades.

A diplomatic source in the Saudi-backed Yemeni government reported Monday that "the signing of the road map to achieve peace in Yemen will take place in the city of Mecca in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia early next month."

The source told Sputnik that “the United Nations, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Sultanate of Oman are making intensive arrangements to sign the agreement in Mecca on the specified date, early next January.”

He pointed out that "Saudi Arabia has sponsored the payment of salaries for a full year to all government employees in all regions of Yemen, according to the statements of 2014, during which the export of Yemeni oil and gas will be resumed so that the economy can regain its breath, and the salaries will be covered by oil exports."

The source expressed hope that "the road map will soon be signed and that no obstacles will arise."

Last Sunday, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement casting itself as a mediator rather than direct party to the conflict. The statement spoke of the "Kingdom’s continued support for Yemen and its brotherly people, and its constant keenness to encourage the Yemeni parties to sit at the dialogue table, to reach a comprehensive and lasting political solution under the auspices of the United Nations, and to move Yemen to a comprehensive renaissance and sustainable development that fulfills the aspirations of its brotherly people.”

In an apparent effort to preserve the peace agreement, Saudi Arabia declined the US request to join a naval coalition to deter Ansarallah attacks on Israeli-linked ships traveling through the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait toward the Suez Canal.

Ansarallah has carried out over 100 drone and missile attacks on commercial ships with Israeli ownership or destined for Israel, and has launched missiles and drones at Israel’s southern Eilat port.

Ansarallah carried out its attacks in an effort to stop Israel’s ongoing bombing campaign in Gaza, which Ansarallah leaders and others view as a genocide, one that has now killed 21,000, the majority of whom are women and children.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/no-ye ... ansarallah

US sanctions Yemeni money network over pro-Palestine action
Washington has also deployed warships to the Red Sea to protect Israeli shipping interests from attacks by the Yemeni armed forces

News Desk

DEC 29, 2023


(Photo Credit: Reuters)
The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on 28 December imposed unilateral economic sanctions on one individual and two currency exchange houses in Yemen, accusing them of “facilitating” the flow of funds for the Ansarallah resistance movement.

“Today’s action underscores our resolve to restrict the illicit flow of funds to [Ansarallah], who continue to conduct dangerous attacks on international shipping and risk further destabilizing the region,” said Brian Nelson, the US Treasury under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.

The sanctions targeted Nabil Ali Ahmed – reportedly the head of the Currency Exchangers Association in Sanaa – and the Yemen-based Nabco Money Exchange and Remittance Co. and Al Raqda Exchange and Money Transfers Company. Al Aman Co. Kargo, a third exchange house based out of Turkiye, was also sanctioned.

According to the US Treasury, these companies “facilitated the transfer of millions of dollars to [Ansarallah] at the direction of … Said al-Jamal,” an alleged Iranian financier “affiliated” with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force.

The White House has accused Tehran of being “deeply involved” in helping the Yemeni armed forces conduct attacks against Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea.

“We know that Iran was deeply involved in planning the operations against commercial vessels in the Red Sea,” White House national security spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said last week.

“[Ansarallah] has its own tools … and acts by its own decisions and capabilities,” Iran’s deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani said in response to the accusation. “The Yemeni government has announced that they will prevent assistance to Israel as long as the Zionists continue their crimes against people in Gaza. [The Yemenis] are an independent player in the international scene … it is not right to relate their measures to others,” he added.

In a desperate bid to protect Israeli shipping interest in the Red Sea, the US has also deployed multiple warships to confront Yemeni attacks under the umbrella of Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG) – a brittle “coalition of the willing” that Washington claims has the support of “over 20 nations.”

The new round of economic sanctions on the Arab world's poorest country comes as peace talks with Saudi Arabia are reportedly approaching the finish line, despite US pressure for the kingdom to walk away and restart hostilities with Yemen.

“Events over the past eight years underscore the key role played by western financial powers like the US and Britain in planning and orchestrating crippling economic warfare in Yemen. Their objective appears to be to gain control over the resource-rich areas in southern Yemen while exploiting the humanitarian crisis as leverage against Sanaa,” The Cradle columnist Abdel Qader Osman detailed in September.

“Three years after the war started, in November 2018, UNICEF reported that approximately 2.2 million Yemeni children were already suffering from malnutrition, with 400,000 of them experiencing acute malnourishment. By the end of 2022, this dire situation had escalated dramatically, with 11 million children now affected, including 540,000 children under the age of five facing severe malnutrition. According to data from the World Bank Group in March, foreign aggression against Yemen has driven up the nation’s poverty rate to a staggering 78 percent – more than three-quarters of its population,” Osman added.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/us-sa ... ine-action

[blindpig]

How Yemen is blocking US hegemony in West Asia

The new US-led coalition in the Red Sea will struggle to overcome Yemen’s naval blockade on Israel, as Ansarallah’s domestically-produced and inexpensive drones and missiles have leveled the technological playing field.

William Van Wagenen

DEC 29, 2023


Photo Credit: The Cradle

Given the renewed focus on Yemen's de facto government led by Ansarallah and its armed forces, it is time to move beyond the simplistic and dismissive characterization of the Houthis as merely a ‘rebel’ group or a non-state actor.

Since the start of the war by the Saudi-led coalition against Ansarallah in 2015, the Yemeni resistance movement has transformed into a formidable military force that has not only humbled Saudi Arabia but is also now challenging Israel’s genocidal actions in Gaza as well as the superior firepower and resources of the US Navy in the world’s most important waterway.

Economic fallout of Yemen’s naval operations

In response to Israel unleashing unprecedented violence on Gaza, killing over 20,000 people, predominantly women and children, Yemen’s Ansarallah-led armed forces announced on 14 November their intent to target any Israeli-linked ship passing through the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea. This crucial waterway serves as the gateway to the Suez Canal, through which approximately 10 percent of global trade and 8.8 million barrels of oil travel each day.

On 9 December, Ansarallah announced it would expand its operations further to target any ship in the Red Sea on its way to Israel, regardless of its nationality. “If Gaza does not receive the food and medicine it needs, all ships in the Red Sea bound for Israeli ports, regardless of their nationality, will become a target for our armed forces," an Ansarallah Armed Forces spokesperson said in a statement.

To date, Ansarallah has successfully targeted nine ships using drones and missiles, and managed to seize one Israeli-affiliated ship in the Red Sea, according to their official statements. These operations have prompted the largest international shipping companies, including CMA CGM and MSC, and oil giants BP and Evergreen, to re-route their Europe bound ships around the horn of Africa, adding 13,000km and significant fuel costs to the journey.

Delays, transit times, and insurance fees for commercial shipping have skyrocketed, threatening to spark inflation worldwide. This is especially worrisome for Israel, which is already contending with the economic repercussions of its longest and deadliest conflict with the Palestinian resistance in history.

Additionally, Ansarallah has launched multiple missile and drone attacks on Israel’s southern port city of Eilat, decreasing its commercial shipping traffic by 85 percent.

The disruption in the Red Sea directly undermines a key element of the White House’s 2022 National Security Strategy, which unequivocally states that the US will not permit any nation “to jeopardize freedom of navigation through the Middle East’s waterways, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab.”

Coalition of the unwilling

On 18 December, in response to Sanaa’s operations, Secretary of State Lloyd Austin declared the establishment of a naval coalition named Operation Prosperity Guardian, with some 20 countries called to counter Yemeni attacks and ensure safe passage of ships through the Red Sea.

Austin announced the new maritime coalition would include, among others, Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Spain, Norway, the Netherlands, the Seychelles, and Bahrain.


Map of the US-led Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) in West Asia and North Africa.

In response to the announcement, Ansarallah politburo Mohammed al-Bukhaiti vowed that Yemen’s armed forces would not back down:

Yemen awaits the creation of the filthiest coalition in history to engage in the holiest battle in history. How will the countries that rushed to form an international coalition against Yemen to protect the perpetrators of Israeli genocide be perceived?

The embarrassment for Secretary Austin and White House advisor Jake Sullivan was swift. Shortly after the coalition's announcement, key US allies Saudi Arabia and Egypt declined participation. European allies Denmark, Holland, and Norway provided minimal support, sending only a handful of naval officers.

France agreed to participate but refused to deploy additional ships to the region or place its existing vessel there under US command. Italy and Spain refuted claims of their participation, and eight countries remained anonymous, casting doubt on their existence.

Ansarallah has therefore destroyed another pillar of the White House National Security Strategy, which seeks “to promote regional integration by building political, economic, and security connections between and among US partners, including through integrated air and maritime defense structures.”

Revolutions in naval warfare

The Pentagon plans to defend commercial ships using missile defense systems on US and allied naval carriers deployed to the region.

But the world’s superpower, now largely on its own, does not have the military capacity to counter attacks from war-torn Yemen, the poorest country in West Asia.

This is because the US relies on expensive and difficult to manufacture interceptor missiles to counter the inexpensive and mass-produced drones and missiles that Ansarallah possesses.

Austin made his announcement shortly after the USS Carney destroyer intercepted 14 one-way attack drones on just one day, the 16th of December.

The operation appeared to be a success, but Politico swiftly reported that according to three US Defense Department officials, the cost of countering such attacks “is a growing concern.”

The SM-2 missiles used by the USS Carney cost roughly $2.1 million each, while Ansarallah's one-way attack drones cost a mere $2,000 each.

This means that to shoot down the $28,000 worth of drones on 16 December, the US spent at least $28 million in just one day.

Ansarallah has now launched more than 100 drone and missile attacks, targeting ten commercial ships from 35 countries, meaning the cost of US interceptor missiles alone has exceeded $200 million.

But cost is not the only limitation. If Ansarallah persists with this strategy, US forces will quickly deplete their interceptor missile stocks, which are needed not only in West Asia but in East Asia as well.

As Fortis Analysis observed, the US has eight guided missile cruisers and destroyers operating in the Mediterranean and Red Seas, with a total of 800 SM-2 and SM-6 interceptor missiles for ship defense between them. Fortis Analysis further notes that production of these missiles is slow, meaning any ongoing campaign to counter Ansarallah will quickly deplete US interceptor missile stocks to dangerously low levels. Meanwhile, the US weapons manufacturer Raytheon can produce less than 50 SM-2 and fewer than 200 SM-6 missiles annually.

If these stocks are diminished, this leaves the US Navy vulnerable not only in the Red Sea and Mediterranean, where Russia is also active, but also in the Pacific Ocean, where China poses a significant threat with its hypersonic and ballistic missiles.

Fortis Analysis concludes by observing that the longer Ansarallah continues “throwing potshots” at commercial, US Navy, and allied maritime assets, “the worse the calculus gets. Supply chains win wars – and we are losing this critical domain.”

And Ansarallah has not yet tried a drone swarm attack, which would force US ships to counter dozens of incoming threats at one time.

“A swarm could tax the capabilities of a single warship but more importantly, it could mean weapons get past them to hit commercial ships,” Salvatore Mercogliano, a naval expert and professor at Campbell University in North Carolina observed.

Moreover, US warships would also face the question of how to replenish their missile inventory.


USS John Finn and USS Porter missiles capacity

“The only site to reload weapons is at Djibouti (a US base on the Horn of Africa) and that is close to the action,” he said.

Other experts suggest that the ships would either sail to the Mediterranean Sea to reload from US bases in Italy and Greece, or to the Gulf island of Bahrain which holds the Naval Support Activity and is home to US Naval Forces Central Command and United States Fifth Fleet.

The ‘great equalizer’

As a result, Abdulghani al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, described the situation in Yemen as a case where technology acts as a “great equalizer.”

“Your F-15 that costs millions of dollars means nothing because I have my drone that cost a few thousand dollars that will do just as much damage,” he told the New York Times.

While the US military is successful at producing expensive, technologically complex weapons systems that provide excellent profits for the arms industry, such as the F-15 warplanes, it is not capable of producing enough of the weapons needed to actually fight and win real wars on the other side of the world, where supply chains become even more critical.

In Yemen, the US is heavily challenged by the same problem it faced while fighting a proxy war in Ukraine against Russia, which after almost two years, US officials acknowledge is all but lost.

Moscow has the industrial base and the supply chains in place to produce hundreds of thousands of the low-cost, rudimentary 152mm artillery shells – two million annually – needed for success in a multi-year war of attrition fought largely in trenches. The US, quite simply, does not. Washington's war industrial complex is currently, at best, manufacturing 288,000 shells annually and seeks to manufacture one million shells by the year 2028, still only half of the Russian manufacturing ability.

Additionally, one Russian 152mm artillery round costs $600 dollars according to western experts, whereas it costs a western country $5,000 to $6,000 to produce a comparable 155mm artillery shell.

Enter Iran

The security situation will only get worse for the US should Iran enter the conflict in support of Ansarallah, the signs of which are emerging already.

On 23 December, the US openly accused Iran of targeting commercial vessels for the first time since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza, claiming a Japanese-owned chemical tanker off the coast of India was targeted by a drone “fired from Iran.”

The same day, Tehran denied the allegations but threatened the forced closure of other crucial maritime shipping lanes unless Israel halts its war crimes in Gaza.

“With the continuation of these crimes, America and its allies should expect the emergence of new resistance forces and the closure of other waterways,” Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an official in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned.

As a reminder, Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in West Asia, with thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, some capable of striking Israel.

On 24 December, Iran announced its navy had added “fully smart” cruise missiles, including one with a 1,000km range that can change targets during travel, and another with a range of 100km which can be installed on warships.

With US and Israeli forces already under pressure from the Axis of Resistance forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and now Yemen, the possible entry of Iran in the conflict is even more ominous for Washington, especially in an election year.

Genocide as a foreign policy

So, how far are President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Jake Sullivan willing to go to facilitate Israel’s ongoing carnage in the Gaza Strip?

The trio's commitment to military aid packages for Israel and Ukraine, despite looming debt concerns, raises questions about their priorities.

The potential risk to the security of the US Navy in the Pacific Ocean may force a re-evaluation of the situation soon. This leaves the US with the option of direct military intervention in Yemen, a course of action with its own ethical and geopolitical consequences.

Recognizing the difficulty of countering Ansarallah from a defensive posture, at least some in the US national security establishment are demanding US forces go on the offensive and strike Yemen directly.

On 28 December, former vice admirals Mark I. Fox and John W. Miller argued that “deterring and degrading” Iran and Ansarallah’s ability to launch these attacks requires striking the forces in Yemen responsible for conducting them, “something no one has yet been willing to do.”

Yemen itself has just emerged from an eight-year, US-backed Saudi and UAE war that led to the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. Both Persian Gulf nations used US bombs to kill tens of thousands of Yemenis, while imposing a blockade and siege that led to hundreds of thousands of additional deaths from hunger and disease.

According to Jeffrey Bachman of the American University, Saudi Arabia and the UAE carried out a “campaign of genocide by a synchronized attack on all aspects of life in Yemen,” which was “only possible with the complicity of the United States and United Kingdom.” And yet Ansarallah emerged stronger militarily from that conflict.

If US support for two genocides in the Arab world are not enough, maybe the third will be the charm.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/how-y ... -west-asia

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The ‘Gulf’ Widens as GCC States Differ on US Strategy Against Yemen
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on DECEMBER 28, 2023
Khalil Harb


The US-led Red Sea coalition’s shaky start reveals the Persian Gulf’s vastly divergent views on the maritime force’s utility, with differences set to intensify as aggressions kick off.

More than a week has passed since US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin unveiled the multi-national naval task force Operation Prosperity Guardian to counter operations by Yemen’s Ansarallah-aligned armed forces in the Red Sea to blockade Israel-bound vessels in response to the war on Gaza.

However, the mission’s nature, objectives, and members – including Bahrain – have become increasingly ambiguous. While Manama announced its participation, the absence of fellow Gulf Coorporation Council (GCC) members Saudi Arabia and the UAE raises intriguing questions.

Even Bahrain’s motives are hazy, given that it lacks any naval fleet of military significance, and relies on small vessels and combat forces for its own maritime defenses. As such, skepticism surrounds the extent of the tiny Persian Gulf emirate’s actual military contribution.

Bahrain has Israel’s back

One Bahraini opposition leader, speaking to The Cradle on the condition of anonymity, describes Manama’s participation as “the necessity of what is not necessary.” The leader points to Bahrain’s complex loyalties to the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel, in addition to its GCC membership as likely reasons for its odd decision.

The Bahraini government’s stance, especially amid Israel’s genocidal onslaught in Gaza, has shocked many within the country, in spite of its unpopular decision in 2020 to normalize relations with the occupation state. Under pressure, however, Manama did recall its ambassador from Tel Aviv and temporarily suspended economic relations on 2 November – though the Israelis claim they had not been officially informed of the withdrawal of the Bahraini ambassador and say relations between the two countries are stable.

A well-informed Bahraini source informs The Cradle that this detached position aligns with the government’s policy since signing the UAE-led and Washington-brokered Abraham Accords. The government, he says, has sought to adopt a neutral stance on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, not recognizing it as a struggle against occupation and overlooking its significance to Arab national security.

“This policy, first, was expressed by the Bahraini Crown Prince and Prime Minister Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, when he described what Hamas has done as a terrorist act, and at the same time condemned the Israeli massacres in an attempt to maintain a neutral center.”

The source further points out that Bahrain’s alignment with Abu Dhabi’s policy reflects a shift towards “the Emirati orbit over the Saudi one.” This is evident in its delayed reconciliation with Qatar, initiated by Riyadh but met with hesitation in Manama. Likewise, the UAE had a slower approach to restoring relations with Doha than the Saudis.

Submissive stance to US influence

Bahrain has a historical role as a key US military ally since 1995, when it opened large areas of its small territory to establish regional headquarters for the US Fifth Fleet. Today, those facilities include an aircraft carrier, several submarines, naval destroyers, dozens of fighter jets, thousands of American soldiers, and their residential headquarters within this military base, which is considered one of the largest centers of the US military outside the United States.

According to the aforementioned Bahraini source, the Manama-based US naval force serves as “an advanced American base to carry out Washington’s intelligence and military work in the region, and its presence reflects the latter’s dominance over the political decision in the Kingdom when the need arises.”

Bahrain is also the headquarters of the Joint Maritime Force, established in 2001 to confront the so-called “threat of international terrorism.” The force includes 39 countries, including Britain, which has established an expanded military occupation on the territory of Bahrain, specifically at Juffair Naval Base since 2018, which represented Britain’s first military base in West Asia in four decades.

The Bahraini source explains that while the US and UK have all the resources they need in the Persian Gulf to run the new anti-Yemen maritime themselves, what they really needed was Arab cover for these hostile activities:

“In essence, Washington does not need Bahraini forces to secure navigation in the region while it has more than 30,000 soldiers in the Gulf and it can manage these operations from its various military bases, but it needs Arab cover after many Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, rejected Arab and Gulf legitimacy (publicly) for this alliance.”

It is a risky move for Manama. Bahrain’s participation in the naval coalition is unlikely to yield positive outcomes for the state and could pose threats to its strategic security, particularly if Yemen’s Ansarallah forces decide to retaliate against Prosperity Guardian’s strikes.

Targeting Bahrain would be “low-hanging fruit” for the Yemenis, not just because it is small and largely defenseless on its own, but also because it hosts bases for leading western aggressors – the US and UK.

As the opposition leader explains to The Cradle:

Manama also “risks facing further isolation and internal separation, given that the people of Bahrain are unanimous in rejecting the Israeli occupation, covering for it, or working to achieve its interests at the expense of the Palestinian people.”

Bahrain’s decision to participate in the US-led coalition, despite GCC leaders Saudi Arabia’s own refusal over security concerns, only goes to show the extent of Bahrain’s submission to US hegemony and its new ally Israel. Says another Bahraini source:

“There is no justification for Bahraini participation at a time when Saudi Arabia, its major neighbor, for security considerations rejects confronting Ansarallah and maintains its position on the massacres committed against the Palestinians.”

Riyadh’s recalibration

The absence of Saudi Arabia from the coalition is especially noteworthy. Disillusioned by past US policies, including the Arab Spring and the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, Riyadh now seems inclined towards a reconciliation with Tehran and has ratcheted up relations with US adversaries Moscow and Beijing, marking a shift in its regional and global strategic considerations.

Rather than deeply engaging in efforts against Israeli aggression or the Iran-led Axis of Resistance, Saudi Arabia appears more focused on dialing down regional conflicts, particularly its own eight-year war against Yemen. The kingdom has welcomed the UN’s road map for peace and Omani-brokered negotiations with Sanaa, indicating a desire to exit the devastating war and shift its focus away from a heavy reliance on US support.

For the Saudis, the ongoing war in Gaza and Yemen’s prominent role in the regional resistance axis present an opportunity to extricate itself from the war against its southern neighbor, in which it is emphasizing a local settlement between Yemeni parties and the Sanaa government led by Ansarallah.

Riyadh showed its direction early, in November, by hosting the Arab-Islamic summit to “dutifully”show solidarity with Gaza without actually taking meaningful action. The Saudis appear uninterested in engaging too heavily in the fracas, whether to halt Israeli aggressions or to confront the “axis of resistance” in whose ranks Yemenis are a vital player.

Stability after all, is crucial for Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s Vision2030 and its ambitious projects such as NEOM, Expo 2030, and the 2034 FIFA World Cup, prompting a reconsideration of its involvement in yet another US-led regional aggression that offers little upside.

UAE’s geostrategic considerations

The UAE, known for its strategic calculations, appears to be treading much more cautiously in the regional confrontation, and is playing a strong role behind the scenes. When Ansarallah threatened sea lanes, the UAE moved to develop a land bridge through Saudi and Jordanian territories to Israel for the transportation of goods from East Asia.

Although risky for Abu Dhabi to so openly aid Israel’s economy while Tel Aviv imposes a draconian siege on Palestinians in Gaza, by doing so, the UAE has significantly boosted its economic and political value to the occupation state. In this, the Emiratis have displayed a steadfastness to normalization that could trigger dangerous repercussions should regional confrontation escalate.

Considering the potential backlash, the Emiratis are hesitant to openly support Israel through military naval power, fearing Yemeni and broader Arab and Muslim resentment. Abu Dhabi prioritizes its image as a safe and stable oasis, mindful of Ansarallah’s missile and drone attacks from just a year ago.

Essentially, the Persian Gulf state aim to avoid jeopardizing their security interests by engaging in ambiguous military actions that could undermine their carefully crafted narrative of stability and progress.

The fate and feasibility of Operation Prosperity Guardian is currently shrouded in uncertainty, particularly in light of recent setbacks and the withdrawal of crucial western allies from participating under a US command.

The divisions among Persian Gulf states regarding the maritime coalition further highlight a region awakening to the realization that Washington’s dominance is no longer as unassailable as it once seemed. The emerging awareness suggests that Yemen and other members of the Resistance Axis possess the capability to impose a new equation against Israel.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/12/ ... nst-yemen/

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Yemen: An Indomitable People (Part 1)
JANUARY 8, 2024


Photo composition showing Yemeni fighters raising their machine guns next to the Yemen flag with the map of Yemen in the background. Photo: Al Mayadeen.

By Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein – Jan 3, 2024

In 2015, Yemen, a country unknown to many in the West, started a war in defense of its sovereignty that was being threatened by an interventionist alliance led by Saudi Arabia.

The Yemeni people had to pay with the lives of almost 400,000 of their children to maintain their independence. Many people have wondered how a country considered the poorest in Western Asia has been able to resist and defeat a coalition made up of some of the richest countries on the planet.

Although the conflict has continued for almost a decade, it appears to have reached a situation that could lead to its possible cessation. Although a tense situation and war conditions of different kinds remain, there has been a reduction in military actions in recent months. It is no longer a total war, but it is not a real peace either. Under the mediation of China, Saudi Arabia and Iran reconciled, paving the way for overcoming several conflicts in Western Asia and North Africa. Hopefully Yemen is one of them.

Now, after the “Israeli” invasion of Gaza, Yemen, together with the Lebanese Hezbollah movement and other Arab and Muslim revolutionary forces, have taken an active role in solidarity campaign with Palestine. Once again, Yemen has surprised everyone by making decisions that have not only a local impact but also a regional and global one. Once again, the world is wondering how this could have happened. In two installments, I am going to present some elements so that readers can get to know Yemen and learn about the historical struggle and the heroism of its people to understand the scope and dimension of the Yemeni decision to support, with all the resources at its disposal, the just struggle of the Palestinian people.

The Republic of Yemen is located in a strategic place, in a region where trade routes connect Asia, eastern Africa, and the Mediterranean. Its territory, located on the coasts of the Arabian Sea and at the gates of the Red Sea, overlooks the Bab el Mandeb Strait, placing it in a privileged place on the globe, especially since the 20th century when, on the one hand, large deposits of oil and gas were discovered in the region, and on the other it became a mandatory passage for most of world trade between the West and the enormous economic growth and development of East Asia.

The ancient cities of the territory were part of the biblical kingdom of Sheba in ancient times. From that time began the struggle of the inhabitants of the current Yemeni territory for their liberation and independence, as they had to face the Roman Empire in the 1st century AD. The powerful Roman Empire was defeated in its attempt to dominate Yemen.

Unlike the rest of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen had prodigious vegetation that provided great wealth to its population due to the great possibilities for consumption and trade it offered. Thus, the Greek mathematician Ptolemy named Yemen “happy Arabia.”

Over the course of history, the Yemenis had to fight with Jewish Himyarites who persecuted the majority Christian population until the intervention of the Ethiopians in the 6th century. When Islam arrived in the region during the 7th century, it began to shape a culture that was based on the interweaving of varied cultural and scientific knowledge and would make great contributions to humanity.

However, for many centuries, Yemen remained outside the cultural and economic development established by Islam. It was in the 15th century when the territory of today’s Yemen began to gain strategic value. In their desire for commercial expansion, the Europeans began the domination of territories throughout the world. The first Europeans to arrive in Yemen were the Portuguese, who dominated the country to control the sea route that allowed them to trade spices from Asia to Europe through the Red Sea.

In the 16th century, the Ottoman empire began occupying regions on the coast of the Red Sea, while the interior of the country and the southern coast remained independent, governed by the Zaydis. In 1634 the Ottomans were finally driven out of Yemen by the Zaydis. Soon after, the English made their appearance in the area, installing a post of the East India Company in the port of Moka on the Red Sea.

In the 19th century, the British expanded their presence by occupying the entire southwestern tip, settling in Aden, the best port in the region, in 1839. In 1872, the Turks were able to consolidate their dominance in the interior of Yemen, for which they settled de facto a hereditary monarchy in the name of a local imam. This division effectively split Yemen into two countries.

Around 1870, with the inauguration of the Suez Canal and the consolidation of Turkish rule over northern Yemen, Aden acquired new importance for British global strategy: it was the key to the Red Sea and, therefore, to the new canal.

At the beginning of the 20th century, Turkey and the United Kingdom marked a border between their territories, which became known as North Yemen and South Yemen, respectively.

During the First World War, Imam Yahya Mahmud al-Mutawwakil, who had already been the imam of the Zaydis since 1904, allied North Yemen with the Ottoman Empire. The defeat of the Turks allowed Yemen to regain its independence in November 1918. However, Great Britain, after recognizing the independence of Yemen in 1928, began a campaign to secure control of the entire south of the country, up to the border with Oman. By 1934 it controlled the territory and converted Aden into a protectorate then, in 1937, into a colony. Once again the Yemenis had to resort to armed struggle for independence. In 1940 the nationalist Free Yemen Movement emerged to fight against the control of the country by the imams who had allied themselves with Great Britain.

The fighting took separate paths in the north and south. In 1962, the Yemen Arab Republic was created in the north, while in the south, the National Liberation Front, created in 1963, took Aden in 1967 and proclaimed independence, starting a socialist revolution.

South Yemen was renamed the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen. It closed all British bases in 1969, and took control of banking, foreign trade, and the naval industry, and undertook land reform. In foreign policy, it maintained a close alliance with the Soviet Union. It also promoted an open anti-Zionist struggle and support for the Palestinian people.

In October 1978, at a congress that enjoyed considerable support from the population, the National Liberation Front founded the Yemen Socialist Party. In December, the first popular election since independence was held to appoint the 111 members of the People’s Revolutionary Council.

From the first years of its existence, the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen was subjected to constant hostility from Saudi Arabia, which aspired to control parts of the territory in which oil deposits had been discovered. Tensions were aggravated by the growing US military presence in Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, in the north, the National Democratic Front (NDF), which brought together all the progressive forces in the country, was leading the armed struggle against Ali Abdullah Saleh, who became president in 1978. When the NDF was about to take power, Saudi Arabia plotted to divert the conflict into a war against the Democratic People’s Republic of Yemen. The mediation of some Arab countries led to a ceasefire and an agreement by which negotiations for reunification, suspended since 1972, were resumed.

Finally, on May 22, 1990, the two republics united to form the Republic of Yemen, which established Sana’a, the former capital of the Yemen Arab Republic, as the political capital, while Aden (the former capital of the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen) was designated as the economic capital). In a joint session of the Legislative Assemblies of the two held in Aden, a Presidential Council led by General Ali Abdullah Saleh was elected. The unification of Yemen was not received well by Saudi Arabia. Consequently the Saudis began a policy of supporting infighting and secession. In May 1994, secessionists proclaimed a Yemeni republic in the south of the country but were defeated by forces loyal to the government.

Between June and August 2004, a movement emerged that expressed the beliefs of a specific branch of Shiite-oriented Islam: the Zaydis, under the leadership of the cleric Hussein al-Houthi. Following his martyrdom in September of that year, the movement took the name Houthi, Huthi, or Ansarallah (supporters of God). The history of Zaydism is over a millenia old and it dates back to the mid-8th century. Zaydism is a branch of Islam that emphasizes the struggle for justice and human responsibility in achieving that justice. It believes that Muslims have an ethical and legal obligation by their religion to rise up and depose unjust leaders including unrighteous sultans and caliphs. This ideology, which was marginalized after losing power in 1962, formed the basis of Ansarallah’s political and religious thought.

Ansarallah’s fight against the pro-Western and pro-Saudi government of Ali Abdullah Saleh was long and bloody. They had to resort to arms on five occasions between 2006 and 2008 in defense of their territory in the north of the country until they began to expand their support base and the geographical space under their control. In 2009, Saleh formed an alliance with the Saudis in order to combat the growing Ansarallah Movement.

For Ansarallah, the fact that a country like Saudi Arabia with an extremely conservative Wahhabi current was present and interfered in the country’s affairs was seen as a threat to the sovereignty of the nation in general and particularly to their existence as a minority. From that moment on, their struggle, which had originally been strictly internal, became a confrontation against foreign intervention.

Although at first the Ansarallah fighters suffered heavy defeats, including (as mentioned before) the fall of their top leader, they grew stronger over time. From 2011 onwards, under the leadership of al-Houthi’s younger brother, Abdul Malik, the Ansarallah Movement began to claim significant victories and inflict significant setbacks on the enemy. The anti-imperialist and anti-Zionist rhetoric was strengthened by identifying Saudi Arabia as the dominant partner of the United States and “Israel” in the area.

The so-called “Arab Spring” had a special influence on the growth of support for Ansarallah in their fight against Saleh’s repressive government. In Yemen, the political earthquake that shook a significant part of the Arab world had a much more organized response than in neighboring countries. Faced with the strength of the protests, Saleh fled the country and took refuge in Saudi Arabia, being replaced by his vice president, Abdo Rabu Mansur Hadi, who tried to bring order to the country by reaching an agreement with factions opposed to Saleh “to change everything without changing anything,” leaving out the Ansarallah movement.

At the end of 2014, Ansarallah decided to begin the offensive to reclaim the capital, Sana’a. In this context, Saleh—surprisingly in an attempt to regain power—established an alliance with Ansarallah to confront Hadi. Ansarallah, which had not supported the peace agreements signed by Hadi, allied themselves with their greatest enemy to take the capital. The Republican Guard, a force loyal to Saleh, favored the entry of Ansarallah into Sana’a. Hadi fled to Riyadh, the Saudi capital, from where he “runs” the territories not yet controlled by Ansarallah. In reality Hadi is a puppet of the Saudi Wahhabi monarchy and its masters in Washington.

Once in power, the Ansarallah Movement formed a Revolutionary Committee to run the country. They were forced to fight simultaneously with the terrorist forces of Al Qaeda, with Saudi Arabia that protects them, and a coalition of other Gulf countries. All these enemies were armed and supported by the West, primarily the US, UK, and Germany.

Saleh considered that Ansarallah had not fulfilled the agreements that, according to him, meant that he had to assume power again, and with Saudi support, he turned against them. Following this betrayal, Ansarallah attacked Saleh’s house, executing him on the spot.

From Riyadh, Hadi called for Saudi intervention in Yemen. To fulfill this request, the Saudi monarchy organized a coalition of Sunni countries to launch the Decisive Storm operation in 2015. This operation relied on air attacks against all populated areas of North yemen and killed many thousands of people.

This action was planned as a definitive offensive to take control of the country and was followed with a second operation called Restore Hope that was focused more on diplomatic rapprochement. In reality, war did not cease at any time; on the contrary, the alliance’s land, air, and maritime actions were reinforced by a naval blockade that prevented the entry of international aid, plunging the country into the worst humanitarian crisis in world history until the current Zionist actions in Gaza were unleashed, both with explicit support from the United States.

Ansarallah which had popular support and better knowledge of the terrain began using guerrilla warfare tactics inspired—according to the movement—by the liberation struggle in Vietnam and the resistance movements in Latin America. The fighters of Ansarallah were incredibly effect against this invading army that lacked morale, discipline, and motivation for battle. The US-led Saudi-UAE coalition soldiers, which included a very large contingent of mercenaries hired by private companies, has been unable to claim military victories.

Riyadh received heavy blows even in its own territory when Ansarallah’s combative operations struck deep into Saudi territory through an advanced attack system using drones and long-range missiles that hit armed forces barracks, oil refineries, and critical infrastructure works at great distances across the border.

(Al Mayadeen)

https://orinocotribune.com/yemen-an-ind ... le-part-1/

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Yemen targets US ship with drones, missiles

The operation in the Red Sea is a response to the US killing of 10 Yemeni naval officers at the end of last month

News Desk

JAN 10, 2024


(Photo credit: Getty Images)

Yemen’s navy carried out a large drone and missile attack on a US ship in the Red Sea, the country’s armed forces announced in a statement on 10 January, in response to Washington’s killing of ten Yemeni naval officers at the end of last month.

“The naval forces, the missile force, and the unmanned aerial force of the Yemeni armed forces carried out a joint military operation with a large number of ballistic and naval missiles, as well as drones,” the statement read.

The targeted vessel was “an American ship that was providing support to the Zionist entity.”

“The operation came as a preliminary response to the treacherous attack our naval forces were subjected to by the American enemy on Sunday, 31 December, 2023," the statement added.

“The Yemeni Armed Forces affirm that they will not hesitate to deal appropriately with all threats within our right to legitimately defend of our country, our people, and our nation.”

The US military announced one day earlier that US and UK forces shot down 21 missiles and drones fired by the Ansarallah-led Yemeni government towards Red Sea shipping lanes.

It is unclear if the incident was related, as the Yemeni statement did not specify what date the operation against the US ship was carried out.

According to US officials, this was Yemen’s 26th attack. However, with this latest statement, Sanaa has only confirmed 13 operations.

These attacks come in solidarity with the people of Gaza and the Palestinian resistance, and aim to prevent goods from reaching Israeli ports for as long as Gaza’s access to aid is hindered. As a result, several international shipping giants have suspended travel through the Red Sea – forcing them to resort to expensive reroutes around the southern tip of Africa, resulting in higher shipping costs.

Yemeni attacks have also had a significant effect on the Israeli economy. Revenue from Israel’s port of Eilat, which Ansarallah has also targeted, has plummeted by 80 percent, the Israeli news outlet, Calcalist, reported last month.

The US established a maritime task force last month in order to protect Israeli interests in the Red Sea in response. As part of the operations of this task force, US helicopters sank three Yemeni vessels and killed ten naval officers on 31 December.

The President of Yemen’s Sanaa government, Mahdi al-Mashat, said on 6 January: “The blood of the martyrs of the naval forces triggered a new battle with the American enemy, and our response to it will inevitably come.”

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/yemen ... s-missiles

UNSC condemns Yemen Red Sea operations
Top Yemeni official Mohammed Ali al-Houthi called on the UNSC to instead pressure the US and Israel to end their siege on Gaza

News Desk

JAN 11, 2024


(Photo Credit: UN Photo)

The UN Security Council (UNSC) has adopted a draft resolution put forward by the US and Japan on 10 January, which calls for the condemnation of Yemen’s attacks on Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea.

The draft was approved with 11 votes in favor, zero against, and four abstentions, including Russia and China.

US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the UNSC that freedom of navigation has been taken hostage, and that Iran is to blame for violating resolution 2216 because, according to Thomas-Greenfield, Iran aids the actions of Yemen as it supplies the means for these operations against Israeli-linked ships attempting to pass through the Bab el-Mandab strait.

The US–Japan draft resolution had also demanded that Yemen immediately cease all operations against shipping vessels in the Red Sea, as well as release the Galaxy Leader and its crew.

Thomas-Greenfield added that the operations by Yemen are "a global problem that requires a global action.”

In response to the UNSC decision, the head of Yemen’s Supreme Revolutionary Committee, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, said: “We demand that the Israeli entity immediately cease all attacks that hinder life and its continuity in Gaza and that undermine rights, freedoms, regional peace and security.”

“We also call on the Security Council to immediately release two million and three hundred people from the Israeli–American siege [on Gaza], which has become a deadly weapon, and because of which Gaza has become the largest prison in which collective criminal punishment is practiced,” Houthi added.

Houthi noted the religious obligations that the Yemeni armed forces and other Muslim resistance groups hold in combating injustice and oppression.

“Any country [that] bears the responsibility of attacking, defending, and protecting the usurping entity [Israel] that commits the massacre with American and British protection, and they, along with Israel, violate international law,” Houthi said. "We take note of the people of the world. The decision that was adopted regarding the security of navigation in the Red Sea is a political game, and the United States is the one violating international law.”


Algeria’s top representative, Ambassador Amar Bendjama, said during the UNSC meeting that "we could not associate ourselves with a text that ignores the 23,000 lives that have been taken since last October in the Gaza Strip.”

Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia expressed worry over the “dangerous side” of the draft resolution. He said that he regretted the politicized nature of the text, and that it is just a veil to ensure the safety of shipping vessels in the Red Sea, but that in reality, the submitted draft is an attempt to legitimize the coalition’s actions "led by the United States and the United Kingdom” and to obtain the indirect “blessing” of the UNSC.

Nebenzia said that in order to stop Yemen’s actions against Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea, it is important to recognize the “direct consequences” of Israel’s "very violent military operations that have lasted for more than three months in Gaza.”

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/unsc- ... operations

[blindpig]

US, UK attack on Yemen ‘will not go unpunished’: Official

Yemen confirmed that no attack would deter its armed forces from supporting Palestine and promised to continue targeting Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea

News Desk

JAN 12, 2024


British Royal Air Force Typhoons conducting strikes against targets in Yemen. (Photo Credit: UK Ministry of Defense/X)

The Yemeni Armed Forces released a statement on 12 January condemning the US-British attack on the country and announcing the deaths of several of its troops.

“The US-British enemy, as part of its support for the continued Israeli crime in Gaza, launched a brutal aggression against the Republic of Yemen with seventy-three raids, targeting the capital, Sanaa, and the governorates of Hodeidah, Taiz, Hajjah, and Saada. The raids led to the death of five martyrs and the injury of six others from our armed forces.”

The attack will “not go unpunished or unanswered,” the Armed Forces added.

“The US and British enemy bears full responsibility for this criminal aggression … [We] will not hesitate to all target all threats and all hostile targets on land and sea in defense of Yemen.”

The statement vowed that no US or British attack is capable of deterring Yemen “from its position of supporting and standing with the oppressed Palestinian people.”

Sanaa’s forces will continue to attack ships linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports, the statement confirmed.

Muhammad al-Bukhaiti of the Ansarallah resistance movement’s political bureau said on Friday that the US and UK “made a mistake” in waging war against Yemen, coming just hours after Washington and London carried out a series of airstrikes on the country.

The US and UK “made a mistake in waging war on Yemen, and did not benefit from their previous experiences” in supporting the Saudi-led coalition's nine-year war against Sanaa.

“Without a doubt, today, they regret their previous follies … They will soon realize that this direct aggression against Yemen was the greatest folly in their history.”

Another member of the Ansarallah political bureau said that the US and British strikes “will not pass without a response.”

Muhammad Abdul Salam, Sanaa’s UN negotiator and head of the national delegation, said that the “armed forces made an initial response, and we will expand the response very soon.”

BREAKING | US and UK warplanes bomb Yemen's capital Sanaa, along with Dhamar, Taizz, Saada and Hodeidah.

The US hit 10 targets, and used warplanes, warships and submarines during the attack. pic.twitter.com/kbz0RRvUS0

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) January 12, 2024

The joint US-British attack on Yemen drew condemnation from several nations and resistance groups.

Russia said that the attack was “a total violation of international law aimed at an escalation in the region to attain their destructive objectives." China also urged restraint from all sides, saying it is concerned about the escalation of tensions in the Red Sea.

"We urge the relevant parties to keep calm and exercise restraint to prevent the conflict from expanding," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said.

Iran’s foreign ministry “strongly” condemned the strikes and said that they would fuel “insecurity and instability” in the region.

"These attacks are a clear violation of Yemen's sovereignty and territorial integrity and a breach of international laws."

Saudi Arabia, which has waged war on Yemen for nine years at the head of an Arab coalition, expressed “concern” over the US and British attack and called for “restraint and avoiding escalation."

Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Gaza’s Hamas resistance groups also strongly condemned the attack.

"The US aggression confirms once again that the US is a full partner in the tragedies and massacres committed by the Zionist enemy in Gaza and the region," Hezbollah said in a statement.

Hamas called it a “blatant aggression” and a “threat to the region’s security,” adding that it “highly values” the Yemeni position in support of Gaza and the Palestinian resistance.

Washington and London’s late-night strikes on Yemen Thursday evening targeted several areas of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, and the provinces of Hodeidah, Saada, Taiz, and Hajjah, according to local news outlet Saba.

US President Joe Biden announced that the strikes were a “direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea.”

The US and UK “executed deliberate strikes on over 60 targets at 16 Iranian-backed Houthi militant locations, including command and control nodes, munitions depots, launching systems, production facilities, and air defense radar systems,” US Air Forces Central Commander Lt. Gen. Alex Grynkewich said, adding that over 100 precision-guided munitions were used in the attack.

The attack followed a speech by the leader of Ansarallah, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, in which he vowed that any US attack would trigger a response greater than the previous retaliation, which saw Yemeni forces attack a US ship on 10 January.

“We have already offered thousands of martyrs while confronting US proxies … We prefer direct confrontation with the US, British, and Israelis … We are ready to do what is necessary and will fight with bravery … We rely on Allah in our position against the aggression on Palestine,” he added.

“A large number” of drones and missiles targeted a US ship on Wednesday in response to Washington’s sinking of three Yemeni naval boats and the killing of ten Yemeni officers on 31 December.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/us-uk ... d-official

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U.S. and UK Forces Hit Military Targets in Yemen
Posted on January 12, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. Hoo boy. One assumes that, just as with Operation Prosperity Guardian, the US has to Do Something so as to appear to have some power. But by all accounts, the Houthis are exceptionally well-bunkered, due both to taking advantage of the rugged terrain and having a very decentralized structure. On top of that, how pray tell could we send in ground troops with the Houthis able to attack military assets at sea, even assuming that could be effective (witness Afghanistan)? And how can “we” do much with just missile and air strikes?

There is the a issue of procedure:

@jeremycorbyn
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Military action in Yemen by the UK & US government is a reckless act of escalation that will only cause more death and suffering.

It is utterly disgraceful that Parliament has not even been consulted.

When will we learn from our mistakes and realise that war is not the answer?

And in addition to questions of effectiveness, there’s also the ever-present issue of double standards and lack of morality:

@aaronjmate
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Biden bombs Yemen to defend "freedom of navigation." Meanwhile, the US backs Israel's regular attacks on Iranian ships trying to bring fuel to Syria.

Under US rules:

- Yemen can't block ships to stop a genocide.

- Israel (with US help) can bomb ships to stop Syria from… Show more

@RnaudBertrand
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"What I heard from so many of the leaders is trying to make sure this conflict doesn't spread"

So naturally you decided to bomb Yemen...

By Charles Kennedy, a writer at OilPrice. Originally published at OilPrice

U.S. and UK forces in the Red Sea have struck military targets in Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on ships in the area.

Reuters cited witnesses as saying there had been strikes across the country.

“These targeted strikes are a clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation,” President Biden said in a statement following the air and sea strikes.

The escalation follows what the U.S. Central Command called the biggest Houthi attack yet, the U.S. and UK forces in the Red Sea shot down 21 drones and missiles on Tuesday. The Houthis’ military spokesman, Yahya Saree, said they had attacked a U.S. military ship because it was “providing support” to Israel.

The news of the U.S. and UK retaliation pushed oil prices higher, initially spiking by more than 2% before retreating some. In mid-morning trade in Asia today, Brent crude was trading above $78 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediateat over $73 per barrel.

The U.S. and UK strikes on Yemen are the first on the country’s territory since 2016, Reuters noted in its report as it recalled that the Houthis have made a vow to respond to any attack in kind. This would mean further escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict.

“The concern is that this could escalate,” security studies professor Andreas Krieg from King’s College in London told Reuters, noting Saudi Arabia and the UAE could be drawn into the war. The Saudis have already issued a statement calling for restraint and avoidance of escalation.

“The kingdom emphasizes the importance of maintaining the security and stability of the Red Sea region, as the freedom of navigation in it is an international demand,” the Saudi foreign ministry said in the statement.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01 ... yemen.html

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JANUARY 12, 2024 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
India gets a rude awakening in West Asia


Britain’s HMS Diamond deploys missiles to attack Yemen

From the standpoint of affirming ‘solidarity’ with the regime of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the October 7 attack, India has swung away to the far horizon and has unceremoniously dumped the US-Israeli axis, which provided beacon light to Delhi’s West Asian policies in the past few years.

From a strategic asset, the Israeli connection is becoming a liability for the Indian government. Delhi spurned Netanyahu’s repeated entreaties to brand Hamas as a terrorist organisation — by the way, India never pointed finger at Hamas for the October 7 attack. It has resumed the traditional stance of voting against Israel in the UN General Assembly resolutions on the Palestine problem. The Netanyahu-Modi pow-vows have become infrequent.

This is a far cry from the controversial gesture by PM Modi during his ‘historic’ five-day visit to Israel in 2017 to pay homage at the tomb of the founding father of Zionism Theodor Herzl in Haifa . It is doubtful if any Indian prime minister would repeat Modi’s feat in future. With reasonable certainty, it can be said that the future of Zionism in West Asia itself looks rather bleak.

Again, for reasons that remain obscure even today, India decided to be a strong votary of the ill-fated Abraham Accords that purportedly aimed at ‘integrating’ Israel into the Arab fold but, in reality, to isolate Iran in its neighbourhood. Delhi never provided a rational explanation for such a dramatic shift in the traditional policy not to take sides in the intra-regional fratricidal strife in West Asia or identify with the US hegemony in that region.

Delhi followed up by enthusiastically lining up with a surreal venture called ‘I2U2’ which brought together India and the UAE with the US and Israel as a condominium to promote the spirit of the Abraham Accords. In an extravagant gesture, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar paid a 5-day visit to Israel to participate in ‘I2U2’.

Above all, Delhi, which hosted the G20 Summit last year and was supposedly highlighting the rise of the Global South in the world order, instead ended up arranging photo-ops for the visiting US President who hijacked the event and instead catapulted a phoney, laughable idea as the main outcome of that historic event — the so-called India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC).

The US apparently incentivised Delhi by planting a patently absurd thought that IMEEC would toll the death knell for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China of course retaliated by just hoisting the BRI flag high all over the Maldives (population: 515,132 in the 2022 census) on India’s soft underbelly from where it is visible all over the subcontinent day and night.

However, Indian diplomats are quick learners and course corrections come naturally to them. Delhi has understood that such absurdities in its West Asian policy will do no good and may even be counterproductive as they raise hackles in the Arab Street. Thus, Qatar ticked off India recently by ordering the 15 Indian schools in Doha that cater to the needs of the largely-Hindu 700,000-strong Indian ex-patriate community to ignore Hindu holidays, especially Diwali.

Consistent with the championing of the Global South, India should have voiced support for South Africa’s brilliant initiative to petition the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to bring Israel to justice for its genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. After all, it was in South Africa that Mahatma Gandhi had finessed the concept of resistance to racialism. But, alas, India lacked the courage of conviction and the moral fibre to do so.

It is too much to expect the ICJ to put Netanyahu in a cage and try him in the Hague court for his abominable acts against humanity. But there is a strong likelihood that with tacit western support, the ICJ may issue in the coming weeks some sort of interim order for a ceasefire. And in the present atmosphere, that can prove to be a game changer.

All this makes India’s decision to stay clear of the US’ harebrained idea of disciplining Yemen’s Houthis a sensible step. The theatre of the absurd playing out in the Red Sea with the Five Eyes in the cockpit is incredibly complicated. One main vector there is about the phenomenon of the Houthi resistance as such.

An old friend and Beirut-based editor-in-chief of the Cradle, Sharmine Narwani twitted about the quagmire in the Red Sea that awaits the Anglo-American attack on Yemen today:

“I honestly question whether the US or UK have carefully considered #Yemen‘s potential responses to this act of war. Ansarallah (Houthi) is an unusual member of the region’s Axis of Resistance. It marches to its own tune and its mindset is entirely devoid of western narrative grooming. There is no guessing at the full spectrum of its retaliatory palette, but I would not want to be an American or Brit in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, or any of the neighbouring waterways right now.

“It may be that Washington misread the Russian and Chinese abstentions at the UNSC yesterday (on Red Sea). Or, perhaps Moscow and Beijing dangled that bait so the US would miscalculate this badly. The Americans are now militarily engaged, supplying, or bogged down on 5 separate fronts: Ukraine, Gaza-Israel, Yemen, Iraq, Syria. US adversaries can easily hold out until the fatigue sets in; they are nowhere near depleted.

“Bottom line is I think the entire Global South is going to be wearing Abdul Malik al-Houthi t-shirts by springtime.”

Indeed, it is such prescience that is often lacking in India’s West Asia strategy. This is not a region for one-dimensional men. It has been a strategic mistake to be aligned to the US and its allies in the Indian Ocean under the rubric of ‘maritime security’. The erstwhile colonial powers are innovating Neo-mercantile mechanisms to transfer wealth to their metropolis. Why should Indians act as ‘coolies’, as during British rule?

Most important, India should be seized of the Renaissance that is sweeping through the Muslim countries in West Asia. It is epochal in its sweep and has cultural, political and economic dimensions — and will inevitably have far-reaching geopolitical significance. That is why, it becomes imperative that Delhi stops viewing the region though Netanyahu’s Zionist eyes. It is important to terminate India’s collaboration with the US and colonial powers such as France and the UK to interfere in the region on the pretext of maritime security in the Indian Ocean.

India has no reason to have institutionalised partnerships with the US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT). In a conceivable future, the curtain could well be descending on the western military bases in West Asia. Delhi should grasp the reality that something fundamentally changed post-October 7 in the geopolitics of West Asia.

It is in sync with what Germans call the zeitgeist (spirit of the times) that Saudi Arabia is demanding that the security of the Red Sea is an international responsibility in cooperation with the riparian countries and UN support. Since 2018, Saudi Arabia has called for the establishment of a Council of States bordering the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and in 2020, eight countries signed the Council’s founding charter, who include, ironically, Yemen. Saudi Arabia plans to host a summit meeting of the Council of States.

Today’s Anglo-American missile strike against Yemen should come as a rude awakening to India messaging that the very same western powers who are backing Israel are also escalating the conflict in Gaza and step by step transforming it as a regional conflict — all in the name of freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. Unsurprisingly, Saudi Arabia, the regional superpower in the Red Sea, has called on the US to exercise restraint.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/india-g ... west-asia/

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KKE: No Greek frigates outside our country’s borders



On 11/1/24, the KKE held a symbolic demonstration outside the Salamis Naval Station, against the government’s plans to send a frigate to the Red Sea, involving the country deeper in dangerous war plans.

“No involvement of Greece in the US-NATO plans and the war in the Middle East. No Greek frigates outside our country’s borders”, the banner read, while party members handed out the Party’s leaflets to sailors and Navy personnel.

During the demonstration, the forces of the KKE demanded that the decision to deploy the Greek frigate be annulled, that all military units abroad return home and that the bases, which have spread across the country, turning it into a launching pad for war in the context of imperialist plans, be closed.

12.01.2024

https://inter.kke.gr/en/articles/KKE-No ... s-borders/

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Western Empire Bombs Yemen To Protect Israel’s Genocide Operations In Gaza

This is what the US empire is. This is what it has always been about. These people are showing us exactly who they are.

Caitlin Johnstone
January 12, 2024

The US and UK have reportedly struck over a dozen sites in Yemen using Tomahawk missiles and fighter jets, backed by logistical support from Australia, Canada, Bahrain and the Netherlands. A statement from President Biden asserts that the strikes against “targets in Yemen used by Houthi rebels” are a “direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea”.

What Biden does not mention in his statement about his administration’s “response” to Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea is the fact that those Red Sea attacks are themselves a response to Israeli crimes against humanity in Gaza. Also unmentioned is the fact that the strikes took place after the first day of proceedings in the International Court of Justice in which Israel stands accused by South Africa of committing a genocide in Gaza.

So the US and the UK just bombed the poorest country in the middle east for trying to stop a genocide. Not only that, they bombed the very same country in which they just spent years backing Saudi Arabia’s genocidal atrocities which killed hundreds of thousands of people between 2015 and 2022 in an unsuccessful bid to stop the Houthis from taking power.


The Houthis, formally known as Ansarallah, threatened ahead of the attack to fiercely retaliate against any strikes from the US and its allies. Abdulmalik al-Houthi, who leads the Houthi movement, said that the response to any American attack “will be greater than” a recent Houthi offensive which used dozens of drones and several missiles.

“We, the Yemeni people, are not among those who are afraid of America,” al-Houthi said in a televised speech. “We are comfortable with a direct confrontation with the Americans.”

An unnamed US official who informed Huffington Post’s Akbar Shahid Ahmed about the imminent strikes on Yemen shortly before they occurred complained that the airstrikes “will not solve the problem” and that the approach “doesn’t add up to a cohesive strategy.”

Ahmed has previously reported that behind the scenes, officials in this administration have been getting increasingly nervous about the risk of Biden igniting a wider war in the middle east. This latest escalation, along with the Houthi pledge to retaliate, adds a lot of weight to this concern.


And all for what? To protect Israel’s ability to conduct a months-long massacre of Palestinians in Gaza.

This is what the US empire is. This is what it has always been about.

These people are showing us exactly who they are.

We should probably believe them.

https://caitlinjohnstone.com.au/2024/01 ... s-in-gaza/