Iran

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blindpig
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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Fri Jan 19, 2024 3:46 pm

JANUARY 18, 2024 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Decoding Iran’s missile, drone strikes

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The building described as ‘Mossad Headquarters’ in Iraqi Kurdistan with underground facilities for conducting covert operations hit by Iranian missile attack, Erbil, Northern Iraq, January 15, 2024

The stunning missile and drone strikes on three countries — Syria, Iraq and Pakistan — over a period of 24 hours and Tehran taking the extraordinary step of announcing its responsibility for the attacks conveyed a very big message to Washington that its stratagem to create a coalition of terror groups in the region surrounding Iran will be resolutely countered.

That the US strategy against Iran was taking new forms began emerging after the October 7 attack on Israel and the consequent erosion of its standing as the regional supremo. The China-brokered Iran-Saudi rapprochement and the induction Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt into BRICS put the US strategists in panic mode. See my analysis titled US embarks on proxy war against Iran, Indian Punchline, November 20, 2023.

There were signs already by the latter half of 2023 that the US with Israeli axis was planning to use terrorism as the only viable means to weaken Iran and restore the regional balance back in favour of Tel Aviv, which is critically important for Washington’s prioritisation of Asia-Pacific and yet need to control oil-rich Middle East. Indeed, a conventional war with Iran is no longer feasible for the US, as it risks the potential destruction of Israel.

Future historians are sure to study, analyse and arrive at sober conclusions as regards the attacks on Israel by Palestinian resistance groups on October 7. In classic military doctrine, they were quintessentially a pre-emptive strike by resistance groups before the US-Israeli juggernaut of terrorist groups — such as ISIS and Mujahideen-e-Khalq — turned into a rival platform matching the Axis of Resistance.

Tehran is cognisant of the urgent necessity to carve out strategic depth before the wolves close in. Tehran has been pressing Moscow to expedite a bilateral strategic pact but Russians, unsurprisingly, took time over it. One key agenda item during President Ebrahim Raisi’s “working visit” to Moscow on December 7 to meet with President Putin was the finalisation of the pact.

On Monday, finally, the Russian Defence Ministry disclosed in a rare statement that Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu called his Iranian counterpart Mohammad-Reza Ashtiani to convey that Moscow has agreed to sign the pact. The MoD statement stated:

“Both sides stressed their commitment to the fundamental principles of the Russian-Iranian relations, including unconditional respect for each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, which will be confirmed in the major intergovernmental treaty between Russia and Iran as this document is being finalised already.”

According to Iranian news agency IRNA, Shoigu conveyed that Russia’s commitment to Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity will be explicitly stated in the pact. The report added that “the two ministers also pointed out the importance of issues related to regional security and emphasised that Moscow and Tehran will continue their joint efforts in establishing a multipolar world order and negating the unilateralism of the United States.” [Emphasis added]

On Wednesday, Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, told reporters in Moscow that the new treaty would consolidate the strategic partnership between Russia and Iran and cover the full range of their ties. “This document is not just timely, but also overdue,” said Zakharova.

“Since the signing of the current treaty, the international context has changed and relations between the two countries are experiencing an unprecedented upswing,” she took note. Zakharova said the new treaty was expected to be signed during what she described as one of the upcoming contacts between the two presidents.

Separately, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted by the TASS state news agency as saying that an exact date for a meeting between Putin and Raisi is to be determined. Clearly, something of profound significance to the geopolitics of the Middle East is happening in front of our eyes.

Suffice to say, Iran’s missile and drone strikes against terrorist targets on Wednesday are a vivid demonstration of its assertiveness to act in self-defence in the new regional and international milieu. Iran’s so-called “proxies” — be it Hezbollah or Houthis — have reached adulthood with a mind of their own, who would decide their own strategic positioning within the Axis of Resistance. They don’t require a life-support system from Tehran. It may take some time for the Anglo-Saxon strategists to get used to this new reality, but eventually they will.

Clearly, it is an underestimation to regard Iran’s missile and drone strikes as merely counter-terrorist operations. Even with regard to the strike on Baluchistan, interestingly, it took place within a month of COAS Gen. Asim Munir’s weeklong trip to Washington in mid-December.

Munir met senior US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, US Forces Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q Brown, and US Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer — and, of course, the redoubtable Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland, the driving force behind the Biden administration’s neocon policies.

An official statement in Islamabad December 15 on Munir’s high-flying tour stated that Pakistan and the US “intend to increase interactions” for “mutually beneficial” engagements. It said the two sides discussed the ongoing conflicts in the region and “agreed to increase interactions between Islamabad and Washington.”

The statement said, “Matters of bilateral interests, global and regional security issues, and ongoing conflicts were discussed during the meetings. Both sides agreed to continue engagement for exploring potential avenues of bilateral collaboration in pursuit of shared interests.”

The statement added that during the meeting between the top defence officials of the two countries, “counter-terrorism cooperation and defence collaboration were identified as core areas of cooperation.” On his part, Munir underscored the importance of “understanding each other’s perspectives” on regional security issues and developments affecting strategic stability in South Asia, according to the Pakistani statement.

Pakistan has an entire history of serving American interests in the region and the GHQ in Rawalpindi has been the charioteer of such collaboration. What is on evidence today is that the forthcoming elections in Pakistan did not discourage the Biden administration from rolling out the red carpet for Munir. But the good part is that both Iran and Pakistan are smart enough to know each other’s red lines.

The US intentions are clear: outflank Tehran in the west and east with failing states that are easy to manipulate. The hastily arranged meetings in Davos between the US National Security advisor Jake Sullivan and top Iraq officials (here and here) in the downstream of the Iranian strikes underscored

*“the importance of (Kurdistan) resuming oil exports (to Israel) and Washington’s support for “the Kurdistan region’s strong partnership with the United States”;
*the importance of stopping attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria;
*US commitment to “enhancing security cooperation as part of a long-term, sustainable defence partnership”;
*US support for Iraqi sovereignty; and,
*Biden’s invitation for Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani to visit the White House “soon.”

In a nutshell, Sullivan has voiced the US’ intention to strengthen its presence in Iraq — and it has similar objectives to pursue in Pakistan too. Washington trusts Munir to ensure that Imran Khan languishes in jail no matter the outcome of the Pakistani elections.

This strategic realignment comes at a time when Afghanistan has conclusively slipped out of the Anglo-American orbit and Saudi Arabia shows no interest to be a cog in the American wheel or dabble with the forces of extremism and terrorism.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/decodin ... e-strikes/

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Iran Sends Warships to International Waters

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Iranian sailors aboard the Tonb ship, 2015. | Photo: X/ @reemamouhammad

Published 19 January 2024

"It is a pride that the Strategic Iranian Navy is active despite the plots of the enemies," Admiral Irani said.


On Friday, Admiral Shahrami Irani, the commander of the Iranian Naval Forces, announced the dispatch of two warships on a training mission in international waters.

RELATED:

Pakistan Conducts Air Strike Inside Iran

"It is a pride that the strategic Iranian Navy is active in international and oceanic waters despite the plots of the enemies," Admiral Irani said during the departure ceremony of the ships in the city of Bandar Abbas.

The mission aims to "transfer experience and naval training to students of the Naval Forces so that they can solemnly carry out Navy missions in the near future," he said, referring to the actions that the Tonb and Bushehr ships will perform.

This mission deployment comes amid high tensions in the Red Sea, where Yemen's Houthi rebels are attacking merchant ships in retaliation for Israel's war in Gaza.


In response, the United States and the United Kingdom have conducted bombings against Yemen, without achieving an end to the attacks in the Red Sea.

Earlier this month, Iran sent the warship Alborz to that area. Subsequently, the Iranian Navy seized the tanker "St. Nikolas" in the Sea of Oman, flying the flag of the Marshall Islands and owned by the Greek shipping company Empire Navigation.

This vessel, formerly named "Suez Rajan," was involved in a year-long dispute in which the U.S. Department of Justice ended up seizing one million barrels of Iranian crude it was transporting.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Ira ... -0002.html
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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Sat Jan 20, 2024 4:08 pm

Iran Came Out On Top After Its Tit-For-Tat Strikes With Pakistan

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ANDREW KORYBKO
JAN 20, 2024

Iran successfully advanced five strategic objectives: 1) preemptively thwarting an imminent terrorist attack from Pakistani soil; 2) flexing its military muscles before the domestic and international audiences; 3) suggesting that Pakistani-emanating terrorist threats are as dangerous as threats from Israel and the US; 4) reinforcing perceptions of Pakistan as a US proxy after its predictable retaliation; and 5) getting it to flip-flop on suspending their ties and thus making it look unstable.

Pakistan decided to restore relations with Iran on Friday around 48 hours after it expelled that country’s ambassador and recalled its own following Iran’s strike against Tehran-designated terrorists-separatists in the Pakistani region of Balochistan. Pakistan retaliated in kind against Islamabad-designated terrorists-separatists in the Iranian region of Sistan & Balochistan. Their Foreign Ministers then talked and agreed to patch up their problems. Here are some analyses about this crisis for those who haven’t followed it:

* “The Optics & Timing Of Iran’s Strikes In Pakistan Are More Important Than The Military Impact”

* “Pakistan’s Retaliation Against Iran Debunks The Theory That They’re Secretly Cooperating”

* “Worsening Iranian-Pakistani Tensions Could Threaten Eurasian Integration Processes”

* “Here’s How The Pakistani Establishment Benefits From The Latest Tensions With Iran”

* “Debunking The Theory That Iran & Pakistan Secretly Coordinated Their Strikes Against One Another”

In brief, the long-running security dilemma brought about by both accusing the other of weaponizing Baloch groups over the years climaxed last week after Iran caught wind of an imminent terrorist attack that was being plotted from Pakistan, which prompted it to carry out a preemptive strike. Pakistan then hit groups in Iran that it accused of plotting similar such attacks against it. Despite the seriousness of these exchanges, many in the Alt-Media Community (AMC) chalked it all up to a “5D chess master plan”.

Pakistan’s swift restoration of relations with Iran will predictably be spun by them as supposed proof of their theory, but the last of the five earlier enumerated analyses comprehensively debunks that drivel. Nevertheless, it’s still important to interpret Islamabad’s decision due to the significance of the past few days’ tit-for-tat, which represented an unprecedented crisis in their relations. To be sure, it’s to both of their benefit that relations were restored, but it’s still worth analyzing who ultimately came out on top.

Observers should remember that Pakistan was the one to break off relations after Iran’s initial strike, which suggested that it caught policymakers completely by surprise. If those two secretly coordinated their strikes like many in the AMC claim, then the Iranian Ambassador wouldn’t have been expelled nor the Pakistani one recalled only for this policy to be reversed just two days later. This flip-flop only took place because Pakistan’s perceptions of Iran drastically changed before and after its retaliation.

Policymakers wanted to signal to the domestic and international audiences that they regarded Iran’s initial strike as an unprovoked and illegal act of aggression, ergo the harsh diplomatic reaction of cutting off ties that same day. The Armed Forces and related intelligence agencies have a reputation for protecting their country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, which was dealt a powerful blow by non-nuclear Iran becoming the third country to bomb Pakistan after nuclear-armed America and India.

On the domestic front, all Pakistanis respect those military-intelligence structures that are collectively referred to as the Establishment, but a sizeable proportion of people are convinced that its elite echelons are corrupt after April 2022’s post-modern coup against former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The subsequent de facto imposition of martial law and surge in attacks by Afghan-based and Islamabad-designated TTP terrorists further discredited the Establishment in many Pakistanis’ eyes.

It was thus imperative to clearly convey that Pakistan had no prior warning of Iran’s initial strike, let alone secretly coordinated it, in order to “save face” after this latest blow to their reputation. This explains the decision to suspend their relations, which also signaled to the West how seriously Pakistan regarded everything in the event that the Islamic Republic escalated after Islamabad’s planned retaliation. Had that happened, then this “Major Non-NATO Ally” would have requested US support.

Simply put, Pakistan never expected that Iran would unilaterally respond to their long-running security dilemma in such a major way and had no idea how it would respond to the planned retaliation, so it reacted in a way that would justify continuing hostilities if Tehran chose to further escalate afterwards. Iran’s reaction once again caught Pakistan by surprise, however, by reaffirming their “brotherly relations” after some tongue-lashing and suggesting that “enemies” are responsible for what just took place.

In other words, Iran practiced perfect “reflexive control” by shaping the military-diplomatic environment in which Pakistan was forced to operate, first by triggering a retaliatory strike that would reinforce perceptions of Pakistan as a US proxy and then by getting it to flip-flop on suspending relations. Pakistan couldn’t eschew a tit-for-tat response nor could it ignore Iran’s olive branch since doing either would have further discredited the Establishment in the eyes of domestic and international opinion.

Iran therefore successfully advanced five strategic objectives at once: 1) preemptively thwarting an imminent terrorist attack from Pakistani soil; 2) flexing its military muscles before the domestic and international audiences; 3) suggesting that Pakistani-emanating terrorist threats are as dangerous as threats from Israel and the US; 4) reinforcing perceptions of Pakistan as a US proxy after its predictable retaliation; and 5) getting it to flip-flop on suspending their ties and thus making it look unstable.

For Pakistan’s part, while it could have theoretically reacted differently after Iran’s initial strike and the olive branch that it extended after Pakistan’s retaliatory one, the odds of that happening were very low. Iran keenly understood the way in which its neighbor’s Establishment formulates policy and masterfully manipulated it. Tehran of course hoped that Islamabad wouldn’t become the first country to bomb the Islamic Republic since Iraq in the 1980s, but it already knew how to react if that happened as it did.

The aforementioned damage to Iran’s soft power was deemed by its decisionmakers to be an acceptable cost for preemptively thwarting an imminent terrorist attack and earning the perceived prestige of being the only non-nuclear country to bomb Pakistan. With this in mind, Iran arguably came out on top following last week’s tit-for-tat strikes with Pakistan after perfectly practicing “reflexing control” to manipulate its neighbor’s military and diplomatic reactions, and the Establishment is none the wiser.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/iran-cam ... er-its-tit

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Iranian media reveals Mossad link of slain Kurdish oil tycoon: Report

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Iranian media releases images of Peshraw Majid Agha Dizayee alongside a Mossad recruiting agent and the leader of a separatist Iranian-Kurdish armed group

News Desk

JAN 19, 2024


FILE - Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani (L) alongside Kurdish millionaire Peshraw Majid Agha Dizayee. (Photo Credit: BNN)
Kurdish oil and construction mogul Peshraw Majid Agha Dizayee had “close ties” with the Israeli Mossad and was considered “a vital cog” in the spy agency's operations in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR), according to information provided to Iranian news outlet PressTV by an unnamed security source.

Dizayee was killed earlier this week during a ballistic missile strike launched by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on his villa in the IKR capital of Erbil, which Tehran claims was a “Mossad base.”

“PressTV website has gained access to some photographs that establish his Mossad connection and how he was a vital cog in the Israeli spy agency's operations in Iraqi Kurdistan, mainly directed against the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the state-affiliated outlet writes, sharing an image which allegedly shows Dizayee alongside Elan Nissim (back - fourth from right), a known Mossad recruiting agent, and Hussein Yazdanpanah (front - first from right), the Secretary General of the separatist armed group Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK).

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No further information is provided by the Iranian outlet regarding Dizayee's alleged Mossad ties. Nonetheless, social media users have unearthed footage showing Nissim at what many claim is Dizayee's villa in Erbil.

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Nissim is believed to be a senior member of the shadowy TASA ELITE security-military institution, which operates in the IKR and is run by Israeli officers. The organization reportedly focuses on “carrying out security operations in Arab countries, especially Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.”


According to Iran's official Tasnim News Agency, Dizayee's villa was a “concrete fortress … used for spying activities and commanding the special terrorist operations."

Dizayee was the owner of the Empire Holding and Falcon Group business conglomerates. While Empire Holding is behind some of Erbil's prominent skyscrapers, Falcon Group has business interests in security, oil, gas, construction, and agriculture.

In March 2022, Iran conducted a similar round of airstrikes against alleged Mossad bases in Erbil, targeting a villa belonging to another Kurdish business tycoon: Sheikh Baz Karim Barzinji, the CEO of the Iraqi Kurdish oil company KAR group. According to an earlier investigation by The Cradle, KAR Group is the recipient of Syrian oil that is often smuggled into the IKR by the US military.

Barzinji and Dizayee were deeply connected to Erbil's ruling Barzani family, which leads the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and have been accused of facilitating the work of western spy agencies in the IKR.

In the days following Dizayee's killing, Al-Mayadeen cited Iranian media as claiming that at least four Mossad agents died during the strike. The Kurdish tycoon's one-year-old daughter was also killed in the attack.

“Ties between the KDP and Israel have existed for decades as part of Tel Aviv's 'Alliance of the Periphery' strategy – initiated by Israel's very first president, David Ben Gurion - that focuses on attracting allies against its once united Arab opposition. The Kurds, but also Turkey and pre-Islamic revolution Iran, were approached as possible allies toward this end,” The Cradle columnist Hedwig Kuijpers detailed in March 2022.

“Nowadays, Israel uses its connection with Kurdish leaders in its proxy conflict against the Islamic Republic, including militant Iranian Kurdish opposition groups. This is also the main reason Israel has shown major interest in monitoring Kurdish politics and the movement of Kurdish insurgent organizations and has financially supported several of these groups,” she added.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/irani ... oon-report

Iran kills, captures militants linked to Kerman terror attack

Tehran has been conducting retaliatory operations in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan against groups and individuals allegedly involved in the recent terror attack and targeted killings of officials

News Desk

JAN 19, 2024

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(Photo Credit: IRNA)

The Iranian Ministry of Information announced on 19 January that two people linked to the Kerman suicide bombing earlier this month have been killed and multiple others detained.

“Two Takfiri terrorists, who entered the country a few days after the criminal incident in Kerman, with the aim of carrying out a new operation in the country of Kerman,” the ministry’s statement to Tasnim News Agencu read.

The statement adds that intelligence officers thwarted a plot by the group to pull off an attack against a police station. The statement added that the “two Takfiri terrorists of foreign nationalities were killed,” and two homemade 20-kilogram bombs were seized.

In addition to the bombs, 10 electric detonators, one US MP4 machine gun, one AK-47 assault rifle, seven grenades, 12 meters of wire with gunpowder and electric fuses, and other weapons were seized in the operation.

Iranian intelligence officers have also named three ISIS leaders that have been arrested: Mohammed Imran Tanveer, nicknamed “Abu Imran,” is a bomb-making specialist; another who was just referred to as “Moon,” who is under interrogation, and other trained militants of the group including one who the ministry refers to as “Zionist linked.”

Iran has conducted various airstrikes against targets whom the Islamic Republic considers to be hostile to its security.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted two strongholds for the group Jaysh al-Adl in Pakistan, who have conducted several bomb attacks and kidnappings in Southeastern Iran.

Iranian Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani vowed that “any action that violates the rights of the Iranian people will see a definite reaction; we will react strongly, and we will not set any limits.”

Pakistan launched a retaliatory attack on a border city of Iran, killing at least nine foreign Iranian nationals.

On 16 January, the IRGC launched twin strikes against an Israeli Mossad site in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR) and the headquarters of the anti-Iran Turkestan Islamic Party in Syria's Idlib.

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https://new.thecradle.co/articles/iran- ... ror-attack

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JANUARY 20, 2024 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Regional opinion urges Iran-Pakistan amity

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Unsurprisingly, the eruption of tensions in the Pakistan-Iran diplomatic ties on Tuesday following Tehran’s air strike across the border against Baluchistan is subsiding, which testifies to the political maturity of the two countries. Neither side wants the tensions and both are astute observers of the regional and international environment. Their chosen path of reconciliation becomes a model for other regional states in Central Asia, South Asia and West Asia.

Iran and Pakistan have a troubled history of relations, which bear similarities with the Pakistan-India relationship in some ways, where too issues of national sovereignty and territorial integrity lie enmeshed with backlogs of history and culture and complicated by geopolitics.

At the root of it is the Baluchistan problem, the legacy of 1947 Partition and the unresolved nationality question and resulting alienation, real or imagined threat perceptions, deep-rooted deficiencies in governance and development that cannot be addressed through coercive methods of statecraft that come naturally to the ruling elites in our part of the world — and, indeed, external interference endemic to regions of strategic importance.

Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper carried an excellent write-up by a Baluchi writer giving a resume of Iran-Pakistan border tensions through the past several decades. To my mind, broadly, the historical space has two phases — the period upto the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the state of play thereafter.

What is of utmost significance here is that the transition from one phase to the other in 1979 was characterised on the one hand by the establishment of an Islamic system of government in Iran based on the concept of Velâyat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist) and on the other hand, by the imposition of Pakistan’s “Islamisation” as the underpinning of jihadism, pivoted on Sunni fundamentalism, with a back-to-back deal between the military dictator Gen. Zia-ul-Haq and the US, midwifed by Saudi Arabia, to create a “Vietnam” for the Red Army in Afghanistan.

All through, Pakistan’s US connection was a thorn in the flesh for the Islamic regime in Iran. Imam Khomeini had harsh things to say about Pakistan’s comprador mentality. Of course, much water has flown down the Indus since then and Pakistan is today profoundly disillusioned with the US while Iran, on its part, is openly crossing swords with the US. And both Iran and Pakistan have drawn close to BRICS, emblematic of the “no limit” partnership between Russia and China working towards a poly-centric world order.

That said, there are subplots. Most important, Washington’s impetus to seek out Pakistani military once again as the lodestar of the region’s geopolitics. Therefore, it is only appropriate that the National Security Committee (NSC), Pakistan’s premier authority on security and foreign policy, on Friday ratified Islamabad’s move towards reducing tensions between Pakistan and Iran and underscored a commitment to address mutual security concerns.

In effect, the imprimatur of the military leadership is unmistakably there in the decision taken by the NSC meeting, which was attended by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee and the chiefs of the Army, Navy, and Air Staff, along with the heads of intelligence agencies. It is a powerful signal to Tehran. The NSC statement said, “The forum expressed that Iran is a neighbourly and brotherly Muslim country, and existing multiple communication channels between the two countries should be mutually utilised to address each other’s security concerns in the larger interest of regional peace and stability.”

The Dawn newspaper commented that the statement “laid the ground for opening a potential pathway towards renewed dialogue and diplomatic engagement.” Interestingly, the statement was preceded by a conciliatory gesture from the Pakistani military, with the ISPR saying, “Going forward, dialogue and cooperation is deemed prudent in resolving bilateral issues between the two neighbouring brotherly countries” — a sentiment that was promptly reciprocated by Iranian foreign ministry, and set the stage for a phone conversation between Caretaker Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir Abdollahian on the same day.

What emerges is that both Pakistan and Iran are on the right side of history but there is always the possibility that the US, which is angling for partnerships to mitigate its acute isolation in the region, is desperately keen to woo the Pakistani military at the present juncture when the country’s fragile civilian leadership is dispirited and there is uncertainty about the country’s future.

The reactions by the major external powers to the surge of Iran-Pakistan tensions clearly show the geopolitical fault lines. Setting aside India, which, regrettably, tends to view any negative tidings concerning Pakistan with schadenfreude, the two other major regional states — China and Russia— have called for restraint and dialogue to resolve the issues. Xinhua new agency, in fact, carried a spate of reports aimed at tamping down the tensions. (here, here, here and here)

In contrast, the alacrity with which President Biden waded into the topic is amazing — “As you can see, Iran is not particularly well liked in the region, and where that goes, we’re working on now. I don’t know where that goes.” The White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Air Force One, “We don’t want to see an escalation clearly in South and Central Asia. And we’re in touch with our Pakistani counterparts.”

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs hit back saying it “does not allow enemies to strain the amicable and brotherly relations of Tehran and Islamabad.” The previous day, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova in a statement also alluded to outside interference saying, “The further escalation will only benefit those who are not interested in peace, stability and security in the region.”

Zakharova particularly regretted that such tensions have arisen “between friendly states, members of the SCO, with whom we are developing partnership relations.”

Significantly, against this backdrop, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov touched on Afghanistan at some length at a news conference in Moscow on Friday. Lavrov said Taliban is the “de factor power” in Afghanistan and despite “hotbeds of tension and protest… the Taliban control the government.”

While “political inclusivity” remains an issue, Lavrov pointed out that two prominent Afghan leaders still live in Kabul — Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah. As for Panjshiris, Lavrov, while acknowledging the need to build bridges with them, added the caveat that the “process is not easy. It has never been easy for anyone in Afghanistan.”

Importantly, Lavrov stressed that Russia maintains “contacts with the de facto leadership” of Afghanistan and that “helps us to work, including on promoting external formats that allow us to develop recommendations for Afghans. He expressed the hope that the Pakistani-Iranian tensions will not complicate the working of the so-called Moscow format or the quartet mechanism of Russia-Iran-Pakistan-China regarding Afghanistan and regional security.

At a time when the West is pushing hard to remove the Russian influence in Moldova and the Caucasus and is lurching toward the Caspian and Central Asia as part of its strategy to encircle Russia, Afghanistan’s is becoming an extremely crucial hub in the big-power struggle for the making of a multipolar world order.

Zakharova’s statement concluded by underscoring Russia’s “unwavering readiness to cooperate in the fight against international terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.” Significantly, Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s powerhouse and a close ally of Russia, recently decided to remove the Taliban Movement from terrorist lists.

These are straws in the wind hinting at a critical mass of regional opinion favouring the Taliban’s integration as a factor of regional security and stability, where Pakistan has a transformative role to play. Above all, this episode constitutes a moment of truth in the geopolitics of the region. Iran and Pakistan peered into the abyss, didn’t like what they saw, and quickly retracted. The region heaves a sigh of relief.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/regiona ... tan-amity/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Tue Jan 23, 2024 3:34 pm

How Pakistan and Iran neatly tackled their terror threats

There was no escalation. In just 48 hours, Islamabad and Tehran found diplomatic common ground on shared security concerns, disappointing external adversaries seeking a sectarian-flavored, all-out war.


F.M. Shakil

JAN 22, 2024

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Photo Credit: The Cradle

The week-long melodrama has ended on a happy note, marking a turning point in Pakistan–Iran relations. On Friday, Islamabad extended an olive branch to Tehran by indicating its willingness to collaborate with them on "all issues." Although Iran’s longstanding security concerns were not explicitly mentioned, credible sources reveal a significant development.

Insiders inform The Cradle that Pakistan's powerful military has already approved a "combined border surveillance mechanism" to track and engage Jaish al-Adl's anti-Iran operations from Pakistani soil.

In another proactive move from Islamabad, Pakistan's National Security Committee, a civil-military consultative panel, has resolved to address the mutual security concerns of Islamabad and Tehran by re-opening the diplomatic route and bolstering border surveillance and communication systems.

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IRGC's missile attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan, Syria and Pakistan

‘Army of Justice’

Cyril Almeida, a seasoned Pakistani journalist and former editor of the Dawn, sarcastically remarked on X that “never have two countries bombed each other and expressed such warmth for each other within 48 hrs … almost got to wonder …”

Iran's decision to launch a cross-border operation in Pakistan's restive Balochistan region, targeting the hideouts of Jaish al-Adl militants, was not impulsive. Iran had exhausted diplomatic avenues to convey the imminent threat posed by the group, formerly known as Jundullah, to Pakistan, alleging support from the US and Israel.

Tehran views the Sunni, Baluch organization with secure sanctuaries in Balochistan, near the Iran–Pakistan border, as a terrorist group, a designation Washington, ironically, also recognizes.

With a combined force of 1,250,000 active-duty personnel and 900,000 reserved forces, as well as untold missile and nuclear arsenals, Iran and Pakistan would present a formidable military force in West Asia if they collaborated more closely; hence the use of intermediaries like Jaish al-Adl by hostile states to keep the two brotherly nations at odds.

Balochistan on the brink

The ongoing standoff with Jaish al-Adl has deep-rooted history. The group has claimed responsibility for multiple attacks against Iranian troops since its first major assault in August 2012. Between 2012 and December 2013, 150 Iranian soldiers were killed in terrorist attacks, with thousands more casualties from the unchecked violence of the terror group in the following decade.

In December, Iran's tolerance reached its limit when an assault on a police station in the Iranian town of Rask, located in the south-eastern border region of Sistan-Baluchestan, resulted in the death of 11 Iranian security officers. This was followed by another attack on 10 January near the town, close to the village of Bidlad Jangal, which left at least one police officer dead.

In response, Iran launched a missile strike on Pakistan on 16 January, in which Islamabad claims two children were killed and three others injured. While Pakistan charged Iran with a general violation of its airspace, Iranian state media claimed the missiles specifically targeted two sites utilized by the militant separatist group.

The following day, Islamabad officially issued a strong condemnation of the incident and subsequently recalled its ambassador from Tehran.

In retaliation, Pakistan conducted air attacks on alleged terrorist hideouts in Iran, which it claims led to the deaths of at least nine Baloch separatists.

US-Israel influence on Pakistan-Iran dynamics

According to Chris Blackburn, a political analyst specializing in counterterrorism and security issues, Pakistan and Iran previously had a mutual interest in fighting militant groups in the region, particularly in Afghanistan.

But in February 2019, Blackburn tells The Cradle, a suicide car bombing by Jaish al-Adl resulted in the death of 27 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) soldiers, which created a trust deficit between the two countries.

In a stunning interview with Pakistan's GTV News, former Pakistan foreign secretary, UN envoy, and ambassador to Iran, Shamshad Ahmad, declared that Iran was fully justified in striking Jaish al-Adl inside Pakistani territory. He believes that these organizations serve US and Israeli interests, and have been ignored by Islamabad for too long.

"I have been addressing this issue since I first started dealing with it," he stated, noting that Iran had made numerous attempts to collaborate with Pakistan to address the urgent security threat. However, the Pakistani army and intelligence services persistently offered refuge to separatist groups located in Iran who were responsible for the extensive slaughter of Iranian border forces.

Ahmad alleges that the US and Israel were pressuring the Pakistani army to initiate military offensives against Iran, and that this action is aligned with their strategies to divert attention away from other geopolitical issues:

“Iran is a sovereign nation and possibly the sole sovereign nation in the region that has expelled the US from its territory. The purpose of these clashes among the neighboring nations is to exert pressure on Iran. The Iranian airstrike served as a cautionary message to Pakistan, urging them to avoid being manipulated by the US and Israel.”

China’s role in mediation

In contrast, Daud Khattak, managing editor for Radio Free Europe's Pashto language Mashaal Radio, tells The Cradle that Iran and Pakistan harbor mutual distrust regarding extremist groups and are already engaged in border operations, but often in a way that undermines relations.

For example, Iran has deployed artillery along the border with Pakistan, while the arrest of Indian national Kulbhushan Yadav in Balochistan was based on Pakistan's accusation that he was conducting operations from the border territories of Iran. “This intelligence game is played as follows. However, launching missiles within Pakistani borders in this manner constituted a direct provocation towards Pakistan,” Khattak explains.

Amid the hostilities last weekend, China offered to facilitate dialogue between Iran and Pakistan, considering its considerable economic and geopolitical interests in both countries. Khattak emphasizes Beijing’s concern over South Asian instability and its impact on the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI):

“China was active from day one but Chinese diplomacy could not stop Pakistan from retaliating because a predominantly Sunni Pakistan was targeted by Shia Iran and the Pakistani military had to prove to the people of Pakistan that they are not weak. Additionally, Islamabad was under ‘immense pressure’ to return a stern reply and, importantly, Pakistan wanted to show the neighbors, especially the Taliban, not to mess with Pakistan.”

Was the standoff pre-approved?

What is noteworthy is that neither Iran nor Pakistan activated their air defense systems to intercept the rockets that struck their territory. Equally astonishing is the recent revelation that Iranian missiles targeted Iranian individuals, while Pakistani missiles exclusively targeted Pakistani Balochis, with no damage inflicted upon civilian and military facilities in either country.

Moreover, the stalemate was resolved through a mutual gesture of goodwill between the two neighbors within 48 hours, without the need for any external mediation. These aspects fuel suspicions that the events were premeditated.

Dr. Mohammad Marandi, a renowned political analyst and professor at Tehran University, as well as advisor to Iranian nuclear talks, says that Jaish al-Adl has perpetrated several massacres of innocent Iranian citizens, and that a response was long overdue:

“Due to the poor governance of Pakistan in the regions near the Iranian border, Iran perceived that it had no alternative but to launch an attack on this particular group.”

Marandi reveals that, although Pakistan officially denounced the attacks, there exists a deeper level of understanding on the matter between the Iranian and Pakistani governments, as the two states have exceptionally strong relations and engage in ongoing communication.

Likewise, The Cradle columnist and West Asian geopolitical analyst Sharmine Narwani stated on X:

“This week's mutual airstrikes gave Tehran and Islamabad the justification to eliminate these armed extremist groups – for each other – without having to deal with the fallout from the terrorists' foreign funders and their local supporters.”

“Both states targeted Baluch separatist militant groups that have long plagued the Iran-Pakistan border – in the case of Iran, killing thousands of border security guards over the years – which are funded and armed by foreign interests that want the strife to continue,” she adds.

Islamabad and Tehran have demonstrated that adept diplomacy, rather than impulsive brute force, can effectively address local disputes in the region. This is especially the case when dealing with separatist groups susceptible to external manipulation and weaponization.

Both states have wisely chosen not to succumb to provocations, opting instead to prioritize mutual security over hostility. Ultimately, the recognition of shared interests serves the best interests of both Islamabad and Tehran.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/how-p ... or-threats
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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Tue Mar 05, 2024 2:56 pm

Iran Elections: Voters Say ‘No’ To Western Naysayers, Uphold Democratic Values
MARCH 4, 2024

By Alireza Ahmedi – Mar 3, 2024

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The official turnout in the Iranian parliament and the Assembly of Experts elections is yet to be announced, but preliminary results suggest that more than 40 percent of voters exercised their franchise, rejecting calls from hostile Western regimes and their media to boycott the polls.

The voting lines opened at 8 a.m. local time on Friday and ballots were cast at 60,000 polling stations across the country, extended three times and eventually closing at the stroke of midnight.

More than 15,000 candidates competed for 290 seats in the parliament (Majlis), and 144 candidates were vying for 88 seats in the Assembly of Experts, a high-profile clerical body tasked to appoint the Leader of the Islamic Revolution.

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, after casting his vote early on Friday, urged the Iranian nation to “make friends happy and ill-wishers disappointed in the elections.”

A total of 61.17 million people, comprising 30.94 million men and 30.22 million women, were eligible to vote in the two elections, with preliminary results suggesting that around 25 million cast their ballots.

More than 350 foreign reporters from 160 different media outlets were present in Iran to cover the elections, according to the media affairs department of the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

Taking into account the aggressively negative media reportage of these elections before the ballots were cast, observers see it as a big slap for all those who thought polling booths would be empty.

People came out in large numbers, both in Tehran and other major cities across the country, to exercise their voting rights, thwarting the plots hatched by trouble-mongers and naysayers.

The fact that the turnout matched that of the 2020 parliamentary elections shows that enemy plots failed miserably. They left no stone unturned since 2021 to create hopelessness among Iranians.

Western media showed open hostility in these elections, not towards the candidates and their policies, and not towards the absence of certain candidates, but to the fact that the elections were taking place.

The fact that the Islamic Republic of Iran is a thriving democracy unlike many monarchies in West Asia and banana republics in the West, is hard to swallow for hostile powers.

Even before the votes were cast, propaganda voices in the West issued premature verdicts, with some even predicting less than 10 percent turnout and some suggesting that the Iranian system was rotting.


This hostility is not new though. It has persisted since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 when the Iranian nation rejected the Western hegemonic system and asserted its independence and political sovereignty through the Islamic Revolution.

It is reflected by half a century of irreconcilability with the 1979 referendum, where over 99 percent of Iranian citizens voted for Imam Khomeini’s idea of ​​an Islamic Republic.

Two days before this year’s elections, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said before 1979 there were sham elections in which candidates were determined by the Pahlavi dictatorial regime and sometimes even by foreign embassies.

“The US, most Europeans, the evil Zionists, capitalists and big companies that follow Iran’s affairs closely with various motives and reasons are more than anything else afraid of the Iranian people’s participation in the elections and their power,” he said.



After the success of the Islamic Revolution and the establishment of the Islamic Republic, Western hostile powers have tried other wicked methods to undermine the country’s democracy.

They have repeatedly proven that they do not care about the true will of the people, not only in Iran but also in other countries where governments are not willing to submit or surrender.

At the same time, they have shown no inclination to criticize the puppet regimes and monarchies where democracy is still an alien concept, where people have no say in political affairs.

This time, even before the opening of the polls, Western media termed the elections a “sham”, while urging people not to vote. It was in line with their hostile approach toward the Islamic Republic.


Some Western media outlets tried to manipulate their audiences by showing a few half-empty polling stations out of 60,000 of them across the country.

According to the known pattern, they referred to the news about disqualified candidates, as if prescribed conditions for parliamentary hopefuls do not exist in all other countries with elections.

The calls urging people to vote were described as a kind of “desperate act for survival,” although authorities in every democracy call people to vote before elections.

Linking turnout with the legitimacy of the entire political system is not only absurd but hypocritical. Low turnout has been a common phenomenon in other countries as well, including in the West.

Over the last two years, such trends have been widely reported in the German, French and British media, especially in the context of elections of secondary importance.

In 2022, German media wrote that “a dramatic drop in voter turnout has set off alarm bells across the country,” wondering if Germans are weary of voting or fed up with all politics in general.

They mentioned that in the most populous state, the turnout fell to 50 percent, and in some districts even to 20 percent, breaking historical records, while citizens talked about lies and skyrocketing prices.

In the same year, the French media wrote about more than 52 percent abstainers in the legislative elections, and about 57% abstainers five years earlier, stating that the turnout had fallen by 20 percent in 15 years. That was not dubbed the “lack of political legitimacy.”

A record-low turnout is also predicted for the UK general elections this year. British media cites the great similarity and extreme boredom of the two main parties in the country as the reason for this.

Unlike the Iranian case, no media questioned the legitimacy of the German, French and British regimes.

https://orinocotribune.com/iran-electio ... ic-values/
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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Thu Apr 04, 2024 3:33 pm

The US and its allies refuse to condemn Israeli attacks on Iranian consulate in Syria

Iran and Syria claimed in the UN Security Council that the US is equally responsible for the Israeli attacks inside Syria but asserted that no amount of attacks can dissuade them from supporting Palestine

April 03, 2024 by Abdul Rahman

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UNSC

During an UN Security Council meeting on Tuesday, April 2, the US and its European allies, the UK and France, failed to condemn the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consular mission in Damascus a day earlier in which 13 people were killed.

In the Security Council meeting which was called by Russia following Iran’s request, representatives of France and the UK refused to acknowledge the Israeli role in the attacks and rather blamed Iran for provoking regional escalation.

The US representative Robert Wood also refused to condemn Israel and instead warned Iran against any further escalation. He claimed that his country is opposed to attacks on diplomatic missions, however, there is no clear information whether the building hit in Damascus on Monday was a diplomatic establishment.

The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres however, condemned the act underlining that the “principle of the inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises must be respected in all cases,” assistant secretary general Khaled Khiari informed the session.

At least seven Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) officials including top general Mohammed Reza Zahedi and Mohammed Hadi Haji Rahimi, working as advisors to the Syrian government were killed in the attack along with six Syrian citizens.

Reactions by the US, the UK and France invited sharp rebuttals from Iran and Russia.

US is responsible for any regional escalation
Speaking during the session, Iranian representative Zahra Ershadi claimed that the US “is responsible for all crimes committed by the Israeli regime” and blamed that refusal to condemn Israeli violations of international law by the UK and France amounts to encouragement.

Ershadi listed the laws and conventions violated by Israel during the attack on Monday on the Iranian consulate in Damasus and called it a “terrorist act.” She also called Israel’s repeated attacks inside Syria a “real threat to regional and international security.”

Claiming that Israel is getting away with its criminal acts against Palestinian people in Gaza and in the occupied territories, Ershadi underlined the need for accountability. She demanded action from the Council to make Israel fulfill its obligations under the UN charter and international laws.

Russian ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya said his country strongly condemns Israeli attacks. He claimed that such acts can cause greater escalation of war in the region and must be avoided. “We believe such aggressive actions by Israel, which are designed to further inflame the conflict, are unacceptable and must be stopped” he said.

Nebenzya also underlined that blame for any possible escalation of the situation due to Israel’s aggressive acts would be entirely on the US, the UK and France for their encouragement of its aggressive behavior by refusing to condemn such brazen acts.

China also said that Israel should not be allowed to get away with its gross violations of Vienna convention and strong action should be taken against it.

No amount of attacks can weaken regional solidarity
Syria’s permanent representative to the UN Qusay al-Dahak accused that the Israeli attack was carried out with the support of the US. Al-Dahak claimed it is because of the US support that Israel is able to commit crimes against humanity inside Gaza and at other places without any repercussions.

Israel has launched several attacks inside Syria since October 7 including the attacks last week on Aleppo airport killing scores of people and destroying civil infrastructure. It claims that Iran has been using Syria to provide support to Hamas and other regional players such as Hezbollah which have opposed the war in Gaza.

Al-Dahak, however, reiterated that no number of Israeli attacks inside the country can dissuade his country from supporting Palestine or talking about the return of the Arab lands occupied since 1967. Iran also reiterated its support to the Palestinian cause.

In a separate message, Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous stressed that what happened on Monday would not affect the countries in the region to strengthen their relations with each other and independence of their foreign policy, SANA reported.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2024/04/03/ ... -in-syria/

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‘There are limits to our patience’: Iran at UNSC

Tehran stressed at the session that it holds the US responsible for all illegal attacks carried out by Israel

News Desk

APR 3, 2024

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(Photo credit: X)

The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on 2 April over the Israeli airstrike, which flattened Iran’s consulate in Damascus and killed several advisors and senior officials.

Iran demanded an urgent session that day following the unprecedented attack. The meeting was called by Russia.

During the session, Tehran’s ambassador to the UN, Zahra Ershadi, renewed the promise made by several Iranian officials that the Islamic Republic reserves the right "to take a decisive response" to the Israeli airstrike.

Iran “has exercised considerable restraint, but it is imperative to acknowledge there are limits to such forbearance,” Ershadi said, adding that it holds Washington “responsible for all crimes committed by the Israeli regime.” She also blamed the US for destabilizing Syria and the region and for continuing its support of the Israeli war on Gaza.

“This crime bluntly breaches the fundamental principle of diplomatic and consular immunity and flagrantly violated the 1961 Convention on Diplomatic Relations, the 1963 Vienna Convention on Consular Relations, and the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes Against Internationally Protected Persons, including Diplomatic Agents of 1973,” Ershadi continued.

Russia’s UN representative, Vasily Nebenzia, said during the emergency meeting that Israel’s attack was a “flagrant violation” of Syrian sovereignty and said Moscow believes “that such aggressive actions by Israel are designed to further fuel the conflict. They are absolutely unacceptable and must stop."

China also strongly condemned Israel, calling it “a grave violation of the UN Charter and international law and a breach of the sovereignty of both Syria and Iran,” adding that the attack was of an extremely vicious nature."

China blasts Israel at the UN: "This is a grave violation of the UN Charter and international law and a breach of the sovereignty of both Syria and Iran. This attack is of an extremely vicious nature... 25 years ago, China's embassy in Yugoslavia was bombed by a US-led NATO… pic.twitter.com/bfGdpdziy1

— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) April 2, 2024
“25 years ago, China's embassy in Yugoslavia was bombed by a US-led NATO airstrike... we feel the grief and pain of the Iranian government and people,” said Geng Shuang, China's Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN.

Syria's Permanent Representative echoed Ershadi's comments and said the attack would not have happened without Washington's “blind support” for Israel.

Mohamed Khaled Khiari, Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific, told the UNSC that the "inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises and personnel must be respected in all cases in accordance with international law."

Washington’s deputy ambassador to the UN, Robert Wood, warned Iran “and its proxies not to take advantage of the situation” by resuming attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria, stressing the US “had no involvement or advanced knowledge” of the attack on the consulate.

Earlier that day, a US official told Axios that Washington swiftly informed Tehran that it had no part in the strike.

The airstrike completely leveled the Iranian consulate in Syria's capital, Damascus, killing several, including a senior officer in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

IRGC officer Brigadier General Mohammad Hadi Hajj Rahimi was also killed in the attack, alongside five other advisors and officials.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi vowed the attack would “not go unanswered.” Several other officials, including Iran’s ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, promised that a response would come.

Several nations have publicly condemned the deadly attack on the consulate. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt all released statements, as well as resistance groups Hamas and Hezbollah.

https://thecradle.co/articles/there-are ... an-at-unsc

IRGC wages hours-long battle after latest terror attack in Iran

Several terror attacks and bombing plots have been foiled by the Islamic Republic in recent months

News Desk

APR 4, 2024

Image
(Photo credit: X)

Clashes raged between Iranian forces and members of the extremist Jaish al-Adl separatist group on 4 April, following the latter’s attempted infiltration into an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) base the night before.

The attempted infiltration took place in the province of Sistan and Baluchistan and was fully repelled by the early hours of Thursday. A naval base, a police headquarters, and an awareness center were among the other sites attacked by militants.

Alireza Marhamati, Sistan and Baluchistan’s deputy governor of security and law enforcement, said that clashes with the attackers ended early on Thursday and that the IRGC was carrying out search operations and “purging the area.”

“The assailants were confronted with thanks to the preparedness of the military and law enforcement forces. The security situation is under control,” Marhamati said.

Ten members of Iran's security forces have been confirmed killed in the attack. Eighteen Jaish al-Adl militants were killed by Tehran's forces.

“Members of the terror outfit attempted to enter the base in the late hours of Wednesday but failed after resistance from the base’s fighters. They first opened fire on the base from the hills near the city’s hospital, and were met with the IRGC forces’ fire,” Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.

The Jaish al-Adl attackers used explosives to try entering the IRGC base, but failed “thanks to the vigilance” of the IRGC, the outlet added.

Jaish al-Adl was founded in 2012 and has operated mainly in the southeast of Iran and on the Pakistani border. It has carried out numerous attacks on the country. In January 2024, Iran launched airstrikes targeting Jaish al-Adl cells on Pakistani soil.

At the time, Anant Mishra, an international relations expert and visiting fellow at the University of South Wales’ International Centre for Policing and Security, said that Jaish al-Adl is closely linked to Israel’s Mossad intelligence service.

The attack came just hours after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed a response to the Israeli attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus on 1 April, which completely flattened the diplomatic building and killed several senior officials and advisors.

It also came two days after Iran announced foiling an ISIS attack on the city of Qom on Tuesday.

Iran has foiled several extremist attacks in recent months, including last year, when a massive ISIS bombing plot was thwarted by security forces in Tehran.

https://thecradle.co/articles/irgc-wage ... ck-in-iran

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Netanyahu is determined to drag the U.S. into war with Iran

Steven Sahiounie

April 3, 2024

The region, and the U.S. are on the brink of a war which could be avoided by the U.S., but probably Biden and the Congress will decide to follow Netanyahu into the abyss.

In an unprecedented and dangerous escalation, Israel targeted the Iranian Consulate in Damascus on April 1. It has been many years since Israel has bombed targets inside Iran, and the diplomatic building, directly attached to the Iranian Embassy, is considered the same as an attack on Tehran. According to the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, in 1961, articles 21 and 22 concern embassies and all types of diplomatic missions.

According to accepted international norms and traditions, diplomatic premises are considered part of the sovereignty and territory of the sending states. Therefore, the attack on the Iranian consulate can be seen as an attack on Iranian territory.

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Foreign Affairs wrote on X their condemnation of the targeting of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, @KSAmofaEN. Saudi Arabia is the most powerful Arab country, and had come to a restored relationship with Iran, brokered by China in March 2023.

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) condemned the Israeli aggression and mourned the commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria, General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and Brigadier General Mohammad-Hadi Haji-Rahimi, as well as IRGC officers Hossein Amanollahi, Seyyed Mehdi Jalalati, Mohsen Sadaghat, Ali Agha Babaei, and Seyyed Ali Salehi Rouzbahani.

Israel’s F-35 fighter jets had launched six missiles from the occupied Golan Heights in a targeted attack on the Iranian Consulate’s building.

The Consulate and Embassy are situated in the upscale densely populated neighborhood of Mezze. All the neighboring buildings lost their window glass from the blast. Innocent Syrian civilians were injured while in their own homes at 5:00 pm, preparing to break their fast during Ramadan at 6:45 pm. Pedestrians were injured walking by as they shopped or returned home. A Syrian champion swimmer is hospitalized in very serious condition from wounds she received while walking in the street. The parked cars in the street were damaged and set ablaze.

“The aggressor Zionist regime bears full responsibility for its consequences and the Islamic Republic of Iran reserves its legitimate and inherent right under international law and the United Nations Charter to take a decisive response to such reprehensible acts,” Zahra Ershadi, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, wrote late Monday in a letter to the UN secretary general.

Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russian First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, confirmed on Telegram that a Security Council meeting to discuss the Israeli attack will be held on Tuesday at Russia’s request.

Iran will be preparing for a retaliatory response to the Israeli attack. The White House said the U.S. was not warned in advance by Israel of the planned attack. U.S. President Biden has warned Israel previously that the U.S. does not want the Israeli war on the Palestinian people of Gaza to grow wider into a regional conflict which would certainly involve the U.S., as the military sponsor of Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Iran is the chief enemy of Israel, and he famously presented a cartoon drawing of a bomb in his speech to the UN General Assembly, warning countries to prevent Iran in obtaining a nuclear weapon. U.S. President Obama made a deal with Iran, and it was working to contain Iran’s capability to make materials to create a nuclear bomb, but U.S. President Trump ripped up the U.S. treaty, which included five other nations as signatories. Netanyahu lobbied Trump to tear up the deal, so that Israel could keep Iran in the hot-seat, as enemy number one.

Netanyahu faces thousands of Jews in the streets in Israel protesting his refusal to make a ceasefire deal with Hamas and bring home the Israeli hostages in Gaza. Instead, Netanyahu is determined to keep the war going, which has killed over 32,000 people, mainly women and children. The Israeli public is now calling for him to resign, as they see he has brought the country to its knees in Gaza, and after almost six months of war, Hamas is not defeated, while Israeli soldiers and hostages are dying, and some may be starving inside Gaza.

Netanyahu’s strategy is to deflect. He seeks to create a bigger war to deflect from his domestic problems. His calculated strike on Iranian diplomatic property in Damascus, was his first step to take the focus off Gaza, and get the U.S. involved in a conflict with Iran. The U.S. Congress will support this, even if the Biden administration is reluctant. The personal relationship between Biden and Netanyahu is at its lowest point. Biden had been asking Netanyahu to deliver humanitarian aid into Gaza, and Netanyahu flatly refused. Biden had told Netanyahu that going into Rafah was a “Red Line”, but Netanyahu has refused to change his military plans.

Although Biden can stop the war in Gaza with just one phone call cutting off the free flow of U.S. taxpayer paid weapons to Israel, he refuses to. Which brings us to the conclusion: that the Gaza war, and the 32,000 plus lives lost, are the responsibility of President Joe Biden, and no one else. Even though voters from Michigan and Minnesota have already said they will not vote for Biden because of his complicity in the genocide in Gaza, still Biden is willing to lose the election to Trump for the sake of Zionism, which is a fascist political ideology hiding behind a religion.

Experts warn that the international community should take actions to stop Israel from further aggravating tensions and violating international laws. The region, and the U.S. are on the brink of a war which could be avoided by the U.S., but probably Biden and the Congress will decide to follow Netanyahu into the abyss, all the while depending on the hardworking U.S. taxpayer to foot the bill, and pay the bloody costs.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... with-iran/

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How do Iranians ‘Boil a Frog’? Slowly and Methodically
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on APRIL 3, 2024
Shivan Mahendrarajah

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Iran’s apparent restraint in the face of Israeli aggression should not be mistaken for weakness. Tehran steadily applies pressure on Tel Aviv through its own methods, setting the stage carefully for Israel’s unravelling.

A strategy in asymmetrical warfare is expressed by the “boiling frog” theory:

Legend has it that a frog placed in a shallow pot of water heating on a stove will remain happily in the pot of water as the temperature continues to climb, and will not jump out even as the water slowly reaches the boiling point and kills the frog. The change of one degree of temperature at a time is so gradual that the frog doesn’t realize he is being boiled until it is too late.

While the story is an apologue – a pretty fable meant to convey a meaningful lesson – it is one frequently invoked by militaries and geopoliticians to describe the “long game” of reaching strategic objectives.

Today, it is Iran and its regional allies who are using a measured approach to increase temperatures in West Asia until the water boils the US and Israeli ‘frogs’ to death. Strategy, discipline, and rare patience – the antithesis of western short-termism – will bring Iran victory. To quote the Taliban: “Americans have watches, but we have the time.”

Time is now on the side of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its regional allies. Two connected examples show how the IRGC is calibrating temperatures like scientists in a laboratory.

The Yankee Frog

Following the launch of the Hamas-led resistance operation Al-Aqsa Flood on 7 October of last year, US President Joe Biden deployed US Navy assets to the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea to “defend” Israel.

On 26 November, the USS Eisenhower and its escorts navigated through the Straits of Hormuz, anchoring in the Persian Gulf on the Saudi Arabian side. Yemen’s Ansarallah-aligned naval forces initially targeted Israeli ships and Eilat Port with their first shots on 19 October. But by 29 November, their attacks escalated to include vessels bound to or from Eilat, irrespective of flag or ownership.

This pattern culminated in the Pentagon’s announcement of “Operation Prosperity Guardian” on 18 December, aimed at safeguarding Israel’s economic interests at the expense of US military personnel. Subsequently, the Eisenhower and its naval escorts relocated from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, purportedly to “defend” the occupation state.

Instead, the positioning of US Navy assets in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has left them susceptible to potential attacks from Iranian or Iranian-supplied weaponry, including cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones.

Despite efforts from the US Navy (USN) and the US Air Force (USAF), Ansarallah remains undefeated. Previous Anglo–American airstrikes in Yemen have proven ineffective, while the ongoing pace and expanding scope of Yemeni operations are straining naval resources and dampening morale.

Unlike ‘Hollywood guns,’ US Navy vessels do not have unlimited interceptor missiles, nor can they be reloaded at sea. As for the morale of American personnel, it will break in the long run, particularly since many, if not most, sailors and marines are simply not invested in a fight for Israel.

Last month, Captain Chris Hill, the commanding officer of the USS Eisenhower, said: “People need breaks, they need to go home.”

While sailors, marines, and airmen are getting antsy dodging Ansarallah’s drones and missiles on a daily basis, the ‘Yankee Frog’ is merrily paddling about his Washington hot tub, believing the ‘might’ of the USN will defeat the pesky ‘Houthis.’

This was arguably a well-calibrated move supported by Iran that accomplished two objectives: First, it got the carrier battle group out of the Persian Gulf, and second, it sucked the US into an escalatory trap. The Yankee Frog is in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden hotpot. It cannot win.

It will either jump out and flee in humiliation, further destroying the credibility of the US armed forces following its humiliating 2021 debacle in Afghanistan; or it will remain in the hotpot and be boiled to death—with the loss of ships and lives.

With either outcome, Iran wins. Relatedly, an Iranian defeat of the US will be welcomed by China, Russia, and scores of US adversary states, particularly across the global south. As noted by one astute Twitter/X user, Armchair Warrior (describing Russia’s likely responses to Ukrainian provocations), by its actions, Iran has demonstrated “reflexive control” over Washington’s actions. By this, he means, “If every military action you take gets a symmetrical reaction, then you can control the nature, venue, and tempo of the conflict to your benefit.” This is precisely what the IRGC is cleverly doing.

The Israeli Frog

The wee ‘Israeli Frog,’ meanwhile, somnolent in the warm water, is dreaming of his ‘new Israel’ – the Israel that he will create once he has ethnically cleansed Gaza. He has plans to develop Gaza, build luxury condos along the beachfront, and build housing units for new settlers.

Architects are now drawing up plans. Former President and current Republican contender Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, a Netanyahuist and Likud Party benefactor, is measuring drapes for his Gaza waterfront condominium.

However, the Israeli military has not defeated Hamas, which continues to inflict significant damage to Israeli military hardware and human assets. By one estimate, Hamas has only been degraded by 15–20 percent. The occupation army wholly depends on the US and its European vassal states for armaments since its domestic production capacities are limited.

According to one estimate, some 500,000 settlers have returned to their homelands; most will not return. Since 7 October, conscription is no longer a safe yet inconvenient three-year requirement: parents are afraid for their daughters and sons.

The dormant refusenik movement that emerged from the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon has re-awakened. Draftees are refusing to serve and being jailed as a result. The conscription exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews expired on 1 April; they are threatening to flee Israel, whose very survival is dependent on Jews moving there.

If representatives of ultra-Orthodox Jews quit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, it could bring down his extremist government. Internal tensions within Israeli society are escalating, fueled by socio-economic pressures and disillusionment with the government’s handling of the war.

The Israeli economy is in shambles. The shekel is declining. It is 3.60 ILS to 1 USD from highs of 4.01 ILS to 1 USD, with further declines likely. Budget deficits and borrowing have skyrocketed. Moody’s downgraded Israel’s credit from A1 to A2 on 9 February. Israel’s tourism industry has collapsed into crisis. Most major airlines no longer fly to Israel. Israel’s manufacturing and agricultural bases are small. Israel has limited access to natural resources and energy; it depends on overland lifelines to Jordan and Egypt, with Azerbaijani oil and gas coming to Haifa from Turkey.

Iran is doing to Israel just what Israel did to it with economic sanctions. But unlike Israel, Iran has abundant supplies of oil and gas, 85 million literate and educated people who are not planning to flee, and formidable agricultural and manufacturing bases.

Tehran is methodically throttling Israel’s economy. Haifa port is on Hezbollah’s target list. If Haifa is shut down alongside Eilat, Israel will only have overland lifelines for food and energy supplies. Ben Gurion International and other airports may be targeted in the future.

Turning up the heat, one degree at a time

The recent Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus, purportedly in response to an Iraqi drone striking Eilat, mirrors Netanyahu’s apprehensions and frustrations – that “the whole world is ganging up on us.”

Netanyahu’s strategy appears to be to goad Iran into escalating tensions, potentially prompting them to target American military assets in the region, thereby drawing the US into the Gaza War. However, it’s uncertain whether Tehran will take the bait.

While the IRGC is likely to respond, they will look to avoid falling into Netanyahu’s trap. Instead, Iran may opt to tighten its economic stranglehold on Israel, possibly by targeting strategic locations such as Eilat, Haifa, and Ben Gurion Airport.

The IRGC understands that Israel’s economy cannot sustain a prolonged conflict. Therefore, their strategy might involve a gradual escalation – effectively boiling the Israeli frog slowly – through coordinated actions involving Hezbollah, Ansarallah, and various Syrian and Iraqi-based factions.

As the economist Herbert Stein noted, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” While Israel is far from being on the brink of collapse, the disciplined and calculated actions of the IRGC are steadily increasing regional tensions. If left unchecked, this could lead to significant repercussions for Israeli society and its economy – all without it realizing, like the wee boiling frog.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/04/ ... hodically/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:10 pm

Iran's attack on Israel. 04/14/2024
April 14, 15:06

Image

Iran's attack on Israel. 04/14/2024

1. Iran was solving the problem of implementing retaliatory measures to Israel’s attack on the consulate in Damascus. Iran could not not respond, since this would mean a manifestation of weakness, even within the framework of the general Iranian strategy. And that is why it was impossible to get by with the usual strikes by Iranian proxies from Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, with which Iran habitually responded to Israeli attacks on its proxy forces. Israel sought to draw Iran into a direct attack by attacking the Iranian consulate, disregarding the Vienna Convention.

2. As part of its strategy, Iran has set the task of implementing a direct response, with strict boundary parameters. The strike should not be too weak, so as not to create the impression that Iran is faking a response, but at the same time, not too strong, so as not to make an Israeli retaliatory strike inevitable, and if it does happen, then make Israel culpable for the subsequent escalation. Hence the observed nature of the night impact.

3. From a diplomatic point of view, Iran justified its strike under the international law of retaliation in connection with the attack on the consulate. From the point of view of old international law, Iran was within its right to strike. But the problem is that international law has not been working for a long time, and within the framework of a “rules-based world order,” there can be no attacks on Israel, and Israel can attack whoever it wants. Yes, this is the bastard order that the United States is trying to preserve, and Russia and China are trying to destroy.

4. The limited nature of the Iranian strike was identical in structure to the strike on the American base of Ain al-Assad in 2020 in response to the American killing of Soleimani and Muhandis in Baghdad. All interested players were informed of the approximate time of the strike, the approximate flight directions of missiles and drones, the nature of the selected targets (military), and the boundary conditions of the response. In this regard, Iran deliberately and consciously abandoned any attempts to achieve operational-tactical surprise, and relied specifically on a targeted frontal penetration of Israeli air defenses at a specified time.
Since there was no goal of starting a full-fledged war, the strikes by Hezbollah, Ansar Allah and Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq were of a limited auxiliary nature.

5. It is important to understand that Israel did not resist the Iranian attack alone - the US Air Force and Air Defense, British and French Air Forces, and Jordanian Air Defense took part in repelling the attack. Some of the missiles and drones were shot down on approach. In fact, there was massive testing of the consolidated air defense of the United States and Israel in the Middle East in conditions where this air defense could prepare for a strike 72 hours before it was launched.

6. The number of drones and missiles launched is key. Iranian sources said 115 missiles were fired. USA and Israel about 200+ missiles. Plus, according to various estimates, there were from 150 to 400 or even 500 drones. Objective data is not yet enough to determine the actual number of missiles and drones launched. In addition, in addition to missiles and drones, Iran launched various decoys and old missiles to clog up enemy air defense systems. Iran also used missiles with multiple warheads, which could also be counted as separate missiles.

7. If we talk about the general goals of the attacks, the IRGC states that the purpose of the attack was to break through the Israeli air defense system and defeat the air base from which the consulate in Damascus was attacked, as well as the MOSSAD intelligence facility involved in organizing the attack on the consulate. The choice of targets also shows Iran's commitment to a limited response. In the event of “burning bridges,” Iran would certainly set as its goal the guaranteed destruction of the reactor in Dimona and buildings in the government quarter in Tel Aviv, starting with the Knesset. The strike tactics included a synchronized strike of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles in order to achieve a guaranteed penetration of the consolidated air defense system of the United States and Israel. Therefore, ballistic missiles were launched at Israel shortly before the bulk of drones and conventional missiles entered Israeli airspace. The main striking force was the latest Haidar ballistic missiles (range 2000 km, warhead 1.5 tons, protection from electronic warfare + optional multiple warheads). Their task was to break through to their intended targets, hiding behind a cloud of drones and cheap missiles, which were supposed to overload the Iron Dome, Patriots and other air defense systems of Israel and the United States.

8. In general, Iran’s tactics worked - some of the ballistic missiles broke through to the Netivot airbase. Israeli sources report at least 7 arrivals, Iranian sources report 15. Iranian sources also report a successful missile strike on a MOSSAD reconnaissance facility. Israel denies this.
The IDF claims 99% of downed targets, the IRGC claims 50% of successful hits (meaning ballistics). It is obvious that Israel will in every possible way downplay the consequences of the strike and hide casualties and destruction, since this is a matter of military prestige. It is obvious that Iran will exaggerate the consequences of the strike as much as possible and conduct active information events aimed at increasing the military prestige of the IRGC and the Iranian Armed Forces.
The same thing happened during the strike on Ain al-Assad, when Iran reported enormous damage, and the United States reported 5 wounded (in the end, there were only 135 officially wounded).

9. From a symbolic point of view, Iran decided to save face and respond to the attack on the consulate in Damascus. The Iranian military-political leadership demonstrates complete satisfaction with the received images of Operation True Promise. In addition, Iran became the first state that, for the first time in several decades after Saddam Hussein, directly struck Israel (we do not take proxy strikes into account). Iran has also demonstrated that even with a limited strike, it can bluntly penetrate the enemy’s prepared air defense head-on, which hints that, if desired, Iran with an even more massive strike can break through the US and Israeli air defenses covering Tel Aviv, Haifa or Dimona. Israel can be satisfied that the strike on the consulate in Damascus is now over, and the damage from the Iranian strike, due to its limited nature, for Israel will be equally limited. But the point here, of course, is not only about material damage (although in addition to direct damage, one must also consider the cost of expenses of both sides - for air defense work, aviation work, drones, etc. - Israeli sources claim that Israel’s expenses alone exceeded $1 billion, and Iran spent several hundred million dollars).

10. Israel is now at a fork in the road. To strike Iran directly means to receive a retaliatory missile strike, even more powerful, which is guaranteed to penetrate the Israeli air defense system. At the same time, the United States has already stated that it will not take part in attacks on Iran, hinting that Israel should limit itself to something like the usual strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian proxies in Syria. Similarly, Israel is actually warned against attacks on Iran by the United States' European satellites. But this, of course, will be perceived in Israel itself as a sign of weakness, because Iran has shown that it can directly hit Israel directly, which is the intersection of Israeli red lines. There will be no consolidated international condemnation of Iran, either in the UN Security Council or in the world as a whole, because Israel itself is profaning UN Security Council resolutions and violating old international law by ignoring the Vienna Convention. Therefore, Iran will not find itself in international isolation due to the strike, and Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran will look precisely like a deliberate escalation on the part of Israel with a further increase in the toxicity of Israel outside the countries of the “golden billion.” Iran has conquered the Muslim street and now revels in its role as the main defender of the Palestinians against the background of the traders and opportunists of Erdogan and bin Salman. It was Iran that ensured that for the first time in six months not a single bomb fell on the Gaza Strip. Well, footage of missiles flying at targets in Israel over Al-Aqsa will be in the mainstream of Shiite religious and political propaganda for many years to come.

In general, Iran has solved its problems and now it’s up to the United States and Israel.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9092930.html

Google Translator

*******

Iranian Missiles Hit Israel

Iran fired several hundred drones, cruise and ballistic missiles towards Israel.

With the help of the U.S., UK and Jordan most of the incoming items were intercepted.

The expense of several hundred of air defense missiles, at a cost of more than $1 billion, was significant as these are currently hard to get items. More such attacks would soon deplete those which are left.

Iran's missiles, for which the drones flew cover, hit their targets. The Nevatim Air Base (vid) and the Ramon airbase (vid), both located in the Negev desert, experienced impacts.

How big the damage was can only be noted after fresh satellite pictures come in.

This is a good chance for both sides to declare victory.

Iran can claim that it successfully penetrated Israel's air defense and hit appropriate targets in revenge for the Israeli attack on Iran's embassy in Damascus.

Israel can claim that it has successfully defended its assets.

Israel may want to hit back on Iran. It would be stupid to do so.

Added: From a reliable analyst of the resistance axis:

Amal Saad @amalsaad_lb - 11:06 UTC · Apr 14, 2024
THREAD: The region is entering uncharted territory where the previous strategic paradigm and rules of engagement no longer apply. From now on, any Israeli action will be met with a direct and collective response by the Axis. 1/

Regardless of what Israel does next, there is no going back to the status quo ante. This is no longer the Iran that just supports resistance movements with weapons and training. This is the Iran that directly engages in strikes against Israel. 2/

This is a new proactive phase of the Resistance Axis' "offensive defense" strategy, which was officially launched on October 8 when Hizbullah and later other Resistance Axis allies directly intervened in the conflict against Israel. 3/

The US and other Western and Arab allies have also taken the unprecedented step of directly defending Israel. Yesterday night proved that Israel's self-sufficiency in security and defense matters is limited. Israel will not be fighting any of its future wars independently. 4/


Posted by b on April 14, 2024 at 10:56 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/04/i ... .html#more

******

Iran Launched Third Batch of Missiles Against Israel

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Iran’s missiles fly over Israel and other countries in the Middle East. | Photo: X/ @ajedrezpolislp

Published 13 April 2024 (13 hours 17 minutes ago)

All missiles launched from Iran are named after Gaza in support of the Palestinian people.


Hisham Wannous, teleSUR correspondent in the Middle East, confirmed in an interview with the media that Iran has already launched the third batch of ballistic missiles against Israel in response to the attacks on the Irani consulate in Damascus, Syria.

Wannous stated that this is a complex operation that is integrated into several phases. First of all, the drones have been launched, which according to the Revolutionary Guard Corps are dozens that according to the United States were launched to distract the Israeli anti-war defense, the so-called "steel dome".

"Some missiles are already arriving at the military bases, which are the target of these attacks," the correspondent said. Other media already report the first detonations of hypersonic missiles in the Naguev desert and that some others impacted in the international desert of Bengornio, in the southwest of Tel Aviv.


The expert said that Iran stated that the operation will continue until this reaches all its objectives. Possibly the answer extends until the morning of Sunday, April 14.

Iran affirmed in the UN that the response is based on Article 51 of the UN Charter (attack in self-defense) following the attack in Damascus. "The matter is over, but the Israeli regime may make another mistake and then Iran's reaction will be much more severe. This is a conflict between Iran and the Israeli regime, the US should keep its distance," said the Iranian diplomats in the UN.

"This confrontation is between Iran and the Zionist regime," Iran’s envoys to the UN said, warning the United States not to intervene to help its ally in the region, if not, the response against them will also be harsh. They also called Jordan to not cooperate with the Israeli occupation forces.

The war cabinet in Israel affirmed that the confrontation will spread for several days, is going to spread for several days, and you’re preparing a counter-counter. Iran warned that if Israel makes another mistake and attacks Iran’s interests again Iran’s response will be tougher.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Ira ... -0008.html

******

Iran Refuses to Bow — Can it Afford to Stand?
April 14, 2024

The Islamic Republic has been confronted with the most important challenge it has faced since Saddam Hussein mounted his invasion of the country in 1980, writes John Wight.

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Funeral procession in 2010 in Qom for “anonymous martyrs” a term for the remains of those Iranians who were killed in the Iran–Iraq War but could not be identified. (Mostafa Meraji, Wikimedia Commons, Public domain)

By John Wight

The Islamic Republic of Iran is that rare entity among the family of nations, in that it is both a regressive and progressive force at the same time. In other words a state in which a reactionary and revolutionary impulse occupies the same political and geopolitical space.

The Islamic Republic was established, it should be pointed out, on the back not of a revolution but a counter-revolution.

The actual Iranian Revolution of 1979 was waged and won by a popular front consisting of Islamists, communists, trade unionists, nationalists and adherents of various other political and ideological currents.

Upon the Shah’s overthrow the Islamists, at the direction of the Ayotollah Khomeini, promptly turned against and ruthlessly purged their erstwhile allies in the name not of justice but power.

Since then the country has trod an uneasy path between reaction at home and revolution abroad, forging a schizophrenic identity at once incompatible with modernity but also a committed disciple of it.

In this respect, the Islamic Republic bears comparison with the 1868–1912 Meji Restoration in Japan, which sought to combine Japanese cultural traditions with Western modernisation in a process that led directly to the rise of Japanese imperialism as an antidote to Western imperialism.

Image
Allegory of the New fighting the Old, in early Japan Meiji, around 1870. (Printing Museum News, Wikimedia Commons, Public domain)

In the here and now, the Islamic Republic has existed in the crosshairs of U.S. imperialism ever since the Shah’s overthrow in ’79, and with good reason. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s regime was a major plank of U.S. geostrategic power in the Middle East, a veritable American aircraft carrier and market for U.S. capital investment.

Along with Saudi Arabia and Israel, Iran under his rule was a vital Cold War asset and its loss a serious blow to U.S. prestige and global hegemony at the time.

But let us not be deceived by any insincere statements of concern emanating from Washington and other Western capitals for the plight of the Iranian people under a supposedly evermore authoritarian regime in Tehran.

The Islamic Republic’s pariah status in the West is entirely down to the fact that under the mullahs, Iran has dared to assert its sovereign right to an independent foreign policy and has set its face against the U.S.-led Western imperialism in the region and beyond.

In this regard, Tehran has been crucial to the ability of President Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinians to continue to resist the determined attempt to subvert all in the name of Israeli military domination of the region in the cause of expansionism.

But now, in the wake of the brazen Israeli airstrike against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, responsible for the deaths of senior IRCG commanders, the Islamic Republic has been confronted with the most important challenge it has faced since Saddam Hussein mounted his invasion of the country in 1980.

Respond directly to the recent Israeli missile strike, as it has both the legitimate and moral right to — and also perhaps the need to militarily — and Tehran faces the prospect of direct military confrontation not only with Israel but also with the U.S.

Fail to respond and the Islamic Republic risks being exposed as a paper tiger. And this not only in the eyes of its Zionist and U.S. adversaries, but also perhaps even more crucially in the eyes of its allies.

[Iran fired about 300 drones and missiles at Israel early Sunday local time. No one was killed. Iran said the matter was over, but Israel said it would respond. “While we do not seek escalation, we will continue to support Israel’s defense, and as the president made clear, we will defend U.S. personnel,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.]

Ironically, both Hamas’ Yahya Sinwar and Israel’s Netanyahu have had the same vested interest in dragging Iran into a wider regional conflict since Oct. 7 was launched.

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Netanyahu addressing the 2018 Munich Security Conference and displaying what he said was a piece of an Iranian drone. (MSC/Karl-Josef Hildenbrand, MSC/Lennart Preiss MSC/Michael Kuhlmann MSC/Lukas Barth-Tuttas, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0)

Up to now the Iranians have judiciously navigated what has been an incredibly dangerous ecosystem on the back of the Hamas-led military operation.

Further still, that the Sinwar leadership in Gaza chose neither to inform the Iranians nor the leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon prior to staging the Oct. 7 incursion into southern Israel remains revelatory as to the character of the so-called Axis of Resistance.

During a face-to -face meeting between Hamas’ leader in exile, Ismail Haniyeh, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in November 2023, the latter is reported to have informed Haniyeh that Iran would not enter the war directly, having received no prior warning of Oct. 7.

This posture on the part of the Iranians could now well change in the wake of Israel’s attack on its consulate in Damascus.

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Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in 2012. (Khamenei.ir, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0)

Here, the timing of the Israeli strike is telling in the extreme, coming as it did just days after the Joe Biden-Benjamin Netanyahu phone call during which the U.S. president reportedly laid down the law to the Israeli prime minister after an Israeli drone strike killed seven aid workers, six of them citizens of U.S. Western- allied countries.

In other words, was the Israeli airstrike on Iranian sovereign diplomatic territory in Damascus Netanyahu’s direct and withering riposte to a Biden administration that had “dared” to become overtly vocal in its criticism of the way the Israeli Defense Forces has been conducting its offensive in Gaza? The answer would seem to be implicit in the question.

What is unfolding now is a high stakes game of chess between both allies and adversaries. With this in mind, Biden’s “ironclad” guarantee of an American response should Iran mount an attack on Israel, which he announced immediately after Israel’s airstrike, has to all intents confirmed that Netanyahu has succeeded in snapping Biden back into line.

In so doing, Netanyahu has deftly weaponised a U.S. presidential election year in which a resurgent Donald Trump is hovering in the background as a putative hawkish alternative.

For the Iranian leadership in Tehran, meanwhile, the law of unintended consequences will be being heavily weighed when it comes to any response to Israel’s recent airstrike. How can the current regime be confident of mass support at home for direct military confrontation with Israel, much less the Americans too?

The brief but militant “Hijab Protest” in the summer of 2022 exposed fissures within Iranian society that remain extant if hidden for now. The risk of those social fissures being rent asunder again is a stark one, going forward.

Image
Protest in Tehran’s Keshavarz Boulevard in September 2022 after the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody. (Darafsh, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)

Not that Israeli society is currently an exemplar of social cohesion in comparison. Netanyahu’s fascistic coalition is well aware of the deep and deepening detestation with which it is viewed by a significant proportion of its own people. This after six months of unrelenting military assault that has failed to achieve the destruction of Hamas and/or the release of the remaining Israeli captives in Gaza.

Escalation under these circumstances, and at this juncture, is imperative for Netanyahu and the last thing the Iranians need. The result is a chessboard upon which the future of the entire region, and by extension global stability, is currently being played out with just one move all it will take.

https://consortiumnews.com/2024/04/14/i ... -to-stand/

******

Into the US-NATO Plot for South Caucasus
APRIL 13, 2024

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The US-NATO led Zangezur corridor threatens the stability of the South Caucasus and regional security. Photo: Al Mayadeen English.

By Ali Akbar Velayati – Apr 11, 2024

The South Caucasus is an important aspect of Iranian and regional security, as such Iran will not allow any Western plots to harm security in the region to see the light of day.

In the last few days, the European Union and the United States met in Brussels within the framework of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), agreeing on a new decision around putting in place a new plan for the invasion and illegal interference in the South Caucasus region (the region encompassing Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan bordering Iran and Turkey from the south and Russia from the north). They stated that they want to intervene in this sensitive region, and from what has become apparent, they declared bringing “peace” to the region as one of their goals.

This type of behavior indicates that this group, which is not committed to its deadlines, only wants to pave the way to create tension in sensitive parts of the world and to obtain a pretext for military presence at the expense of this region’s security and the independence of its states.

The sensitivity of the South Caucasus region is not veiled from anyone, and the honorable history of the Islamic Republic of Iran shows that it has always been an important pillar in maintaining security and peace in this region while preserving the rights and particularities of nearby states.

NATO’s new plan and its formation are based on the US initiative and require the help of some mediators in the region.

It is worth noting that nearly two years ago, an initiative that holds the same direction, but under a different guise, was suggested. In that initiative, they wanted to create a more elegant facade, which when unveiled, revealed many highly harmful details when they were attempting to claim to be facilitating communication to transfer energy between South Caucasus nations.

The execution of such a strategy would not only lead to significant and strategically disruptive outcomes at the expense of the region’s nations but also result in the erosion of their historical borders and the emergence of internal conflicts. These developments will be exploited by Western powers, led by the United States of America, as a pretext for intervening in the region. Consequently, it would exacerbate existing tensions among neighboring states by fueling the fire raging between the South Caucasus states, paving the way for the expansionist agendas of Western powers under the guise of conflict resolution.

It should be noted that the Americans, as the highest decision-makers in NATO, aimed to deploy the forces of this organization in southern Russia or northern Iran to obtain energy resources in the Caspian Sea and Central Asia. Since its inception, this plan has been thwarted, thanks to the vigilant stance of the holy Islamic Republic and its steadfast opposition to such a scheme.



Initially, some regional supporters [of the US and NATO] backed this plan, but the Islamic Republic of Iran opposed it, and only Iran stood up to this plan with wisdom and authority. Their desire, both past and present, remains fixed on replicating the maneuvers witnessed in the Baltic Sea and Ukraine within the crucial corridor spanning northern Iran and southern Russia. This pursuit will complete NATO’s broad and comprehensive eastward expansion. There are quite a few research centers and decision-making centers that serve the West’s illegitimate interests, especially the centers that revealed their intentions after the failure of this plan, which confirmed this claim.

The available evidence reveals that the US is the head of every global sin and that the ruling Crusader Zionist capitalists in that country are looking for a specific plan to reformulate their global hegemony in the midst of the new circumstances brought upon by polarization since the Second World War. This includes demands for a unipolar world led by the United States by George Bush Senior in 1991, the multipolar world that the Chinese representative in the United Nations suggested in 1999, the establishment of a new Eastern-polar world by China and Russia in 2022, which was announced by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and the formulation of a real alliance of anti-Western states in line with Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. The Axis of Resistance, which is centered around the Islamic Republic of Iran and the participation of the revolutionary countries in West Asia in this Axis, has had a special influence on the alliance.

Therefore, a US official recently said that the West must break the strategic monopoly over the Strait of Hormuz and the Baltic Sea in the future of its energy supplies, and this could only be accomplished through the South Caucasus.

On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and the Chancellor of Germany told then-Soviet officials (Mikhail Gorbachev and Eduard Shevardnadze) during the time of the collapse of the Berlin Wall that NATO would not make a one-centimeter advance into this hypothetical line agreed upon after the Cold War. However, in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world saw NATO, a comprehensive Western military alliance centered around the United States, make European countries one after the other join the alliance. By making threats against neutral countries that have no reason to be hostile to Russia on the one hand, and by tempting with European Union membership on the other, NATO annexed these countries until it reached Ukraine, where Putin stood up to the alliance.

After a serious conflict between Russia and the West, NATO gradually turned to the second alternative, (of eastward expansion), which is the South Caucasus. Putin had said before the Ukraine incident that the borders of the South Caucasus were the same as those that were drawn during the era of the former Soviet Union, but the sharp confrontation between Russia and the West in Ukraine gradually led to a reduction in the intensity of the Russian government’s tone in preserving its position on the South Caucasus. Even during the past years, the matter reached a stage where circles in the United States and Turkey said that Iran was the only nation opposing the establishment of the Zangezur corridor.

Yes, this is how Iran stopped this huge conspiracy with the necessary skill and authority.

One international affairs professor at Tbilisi University stated some time ago that the fear lies in Russia weakening in the South Caucasus and NATO becoming a neighbor to Iran. Now, Iran’s long and valuable experiences show that countries seeking to exploit Iran will barge in through the window if they are pushed out the door. Nonetheless, just as we stood against the opening of the Zangezur corridor, we will stand against any other plan seeking a similar result, and we still believe that the 3+3 format is the best solution to the future problems of the South Caucasus.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has a long history of deep relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the independence of these two neighboring countries and the preservation of their territorial integrity is extremely important to us.

We issue a clear warning to countries that are not familiar with Iran yet that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not allow such moves to be made by any nation, organization, or alliance that intends to harm Iran’s security. We will defend with full vigilance and authority the integrity of its territory and its security. It must be emphasized that the South Caucasus is an important part of Iran’s security zone, which Iran will always defend, along with the security, independence, and territorial integrity of all countries in this region. This decision taken by the European Union, NATO, and the US in Brussels will not see the light of day in any case.

The opinions mentioned in this article do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Al mayadeen, but rather express the opinion of its writer exclusively.

(Al Mayadeen English)

https://orinocotribune.com/into-the-us- ... -caucasus/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Tue Apr 16, 2024 2:56 pm

What you need to know about the Iranian attack on Israel but will not find in your mainstream news provider

Iran’s weekend massive drone, cruise missile and ballistic missile attack on Israel has now been covered in the global media, with the headlines announcing that 99% of the barrage was shot down by Israeli, U.S. and other friendly air defense systems. The question these media pose is what will be the Israeli response, as if that were a matter strictly to be decided by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s cabinet.

In fairness, I note that The Financial Times has also published a front page article setting out what it considers to be the Iranian perspective on the attack, namely that it was successful insofar as it demonstrated their country is not shying away from direct military confrontation with Israel and is confidently prepared to prosecute a full scale war if it comes to that. See “We’re crazier than you realize”: Iran delivers its message with attack on Israel. Tehran believes calibrated missile and drone barrage is enough to restore deterrent and bolster image.”

However, the Iranian position is much more nuanced and contains far greater threat not only to Israel but also to the entire United States presence in the region than the FT suggests. I say this on the basis of an analysis provided on last night’s edition of the Vladimir Solovyov talk show on Russian state television by a regular panelist, Semyon Arkadievich Bagdasarov, who is a leading Russian specialist on the region.

For those who wish to see and hear Bagdasarov’s 14 minutes on air in the original Russian, the link is

https://all-make.su/22174-vecher-s-solo ... 4-04-2024/ minutes: 27 – 41.

In what follows I offer a brief biographical sketch of Bagdasarov so that the seriousness of his remarks can be better appreciated. Then I will summarize what he said on air.

*****

Aged 69, Bagdasarov was born in Central Asia in the Ferghana Valley, which passes through Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Accordingly, he has the proper birthright to his position since 2014 as director of the think tank called the Center for the Study of the Countries of the Near East and Central Asia. However, Bagdasarov reached this academic plateau after passing through a succession of military and civilian government posts, including the 5 years starting in 2007 as a Duma member from the ‘For a Just Russia opposition party of Sergei Mironov, which might be described as slightly to the Left of the ruling United Russia party.

Bagdasarov’s professional education was in a military academy and he ultimately retired with the rank of colonel. He then moved into government service first at the regional level and then as an expert to the Duma, to which, as I said above, he was later elected.

In line with what the FT article has said, Bagdasarov calls the Iranian attack on Israel a limited strike intended as a warning, but also yielding both specific tactical and strategic results.

On the tactical side, the swarming of drones was intended to activate the Iron Dome and other levels of Israeli air defense and to reveal the location of their component parts as well as to deplete the Israeli stock of relevant missiles.

Per Bagdasarov, Israeli claims to have shot down 99% of the incoming barrage should be taken with a grain of salt. The Iranians’ key targets in the attack were the Israeli air force base in the south of the country from which the Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus was launched two weeks ago and a military intelligence compound which had prepared that deadly strike. The actual extent of damage from Iranian missiles remains to be evaluated.

Bagdasarov explains that the Iranian attack was ‘limited’ because it consisted of rather slow moving drones and of missiles with small warheads. These were not Iran’s most advanced and lethal attack materiel, which has been held in reserve for any possible Round Two.

How many drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles does Iran have? Bagdasarov says no one knows exactly but it may well be 10,000 or more and includes several hundred highly advanced missiles which also have multiple warheads and so are very difficult to defend against. Over the past 20 years, Iran has bet its defense budget on missiles and drones, and it has a large-scale serial production of both. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional allies also have large stocks of these weapons, some of which are also fairly sophisticated. In particular, Hizbollah in Lebanon may have 1500 high quality missiles in its arsenal.

At the strategic level, Iran demonstrated its ability to coordinate a missile and drone attack on Israel with its regional proxies so as to maximize the threat coming from all directions.

Iran used the attack to achieve a political and military objective that has long eluded it. Teheran has now issued threats against Persian Gulf states to bomb any and all that allow the Americans to use their air space or otherwise facilitate Israel’s possible revenge attack on Iran from their territories. These states all fear a war and have now agreed to Iran’s demand. In effect, this negates decades of U.S. unchallenged domination in the Gulf.

Iran has specifically threatened the U.S. regional command in Qatar and the base of the 5th fleet in Bahrain.

The latter point is reflected in Biden’s latest urging restraint on Israel. Washington has understood that its forces in the region are now hostage to whatever Netanyahu may do against Iran as follow-up to this weekend’s barrage.

Furthermore, at the threat level, Iran has a still unused but clearly visible ace in the hole: its ability at will to blockade the Straits of Hormuz and thereby cut off nearly all export shipments of gas and oil from the region. The Straits are just 50 km wide and are easily controlled by Iran’s anti-ship missiles ashore. Such a closure would create havoc on global energy markets. We were reminded of Iran’s dominant position there several days ago when they captured a container ship owned by an Israeli millionaire which was traveling through and directed it to their own coast.

And what about Israel’s alleged plans to attack Iran’s nuclear installations? Bagdasarov insists that this is an impossible objective. Firstly, because the Iranian nuclear program is distributed among 200 centers spread across the vast country and many of these locations are in desert areas buried under 40 meters of sand. The Israelis might only destroy a couple of the best known nuclear centers. Secondly, because to reach their targets in Iran, the Israeli jets would require in-air refueling by American tankers, and it is scarcely credible that Biden will give his consent considering how the U.S. regional bases are under threat.

Iran fired this time only on military objects, but if they use not 300 but 10,000 missiles and drones then Israel will be obliterated. Hizbollah alone have 1,500 advanced missiles. Iran surely has real missiles and drones that are still more powerful. No one knows exactly how many. Over the past 20 years Iran placed its bets on drones and missiles. In the assortment, they have some very sophisticated multi warhead missiles that are unstoppable.

Later in the program (at 1 hour 36 minutes) a military commentator who is a frequent panelist on the Solovyov show, Lt General (retired), Yevgeny Buzhinsky, head of the Center of Applied Military Research of Moscow State University, seconded the estimation of Bagdasarov that this was just a warning, a PR exercise by Iran. As for the shoot-down, he noted that with its S400 and other systems Russia has probably the best air defense in the world, and yet they strain to reach the 99% interception that Israel has blithely claimed.

As host Vladimir Solovyov commented at the opening of the program, the principal fact is that the Iranians did it. They spat on the U.S. and its allies, and they just did what they believed was necessary. In consequence the world ‘built on rules’ counts for nothing.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/04/15/ ... -provider/

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Iran’s drone strike busts a number of myths and strains Israel-U.S. relations

Martin Jay

April 14, 2024

Iran’s drone attack has opened up a can of worms which Biden would have preferred wouldn’t have been opened

It is ironic to western analysts how invariably it is the East which keeps a cool head and doesn’t rise to the bait of escalation while it is the West which is reckless, foolhardy and careless with its provocations. In Ukraine we have seen nothing but this accompanied by miscalculation and poor decisions on the part of NATO. And now we are seeing this in Israel as remarkably, Joe Biden, has managed to be ensnared now in a regional war between Israel and Iran – a dream for the latter for well over 30 years.

Iran’s reaction to the bombing of its consulate in Damascus was very measured, well thought-out and pulled off with a certain sobriety which will not be matched by Israel and the U.S. Tehran did not want to kill civilians but simply send a message that Israel crossed a line and if it does this again, then there will be more attacks from Iran, perhaps intercontinental missiles with deeper impact than cheap drones. That is not to say that the drones were not effective. They were at the specific task which the Iranians wanted of them, knowing full well that most of them would be intercepted.

But the move by Tehran was still a shock to many western experts and no doubt the Netanyahu cabal as well, as it busted a number of myths in one evening. Firstly, that Iran would have the courage to bomb directly Israel, as many pundits dismissed this without a thought. The fact that Iran is prepared to use its missiles to potentially kill civilians on Israeli soil changes the dynamic now as Israel can no longer double guess what the payback will be if it continues its feral bombing of Iranian soldiers, even on Syrian soil.

Secondly, it also busts the myth that Israel has the capability to tackle war on more than one front. All during the night while its military was busy, Gazans were enjoying a peaceful night of no shelling at all and took to social media to celebrate the detente. Israel’s military does not have the capacity or strength to fight a war in Gaza as well as one from a second front, such as a massive drone attack, let alone a third one from Hezbollah in Lebanon, if need be.

And thirdly, the role of partners. Israel couldn’t have got through the night and got what it claims to be a 99 percent hit rate without the help of partners like British RAF fighter jets who helped, not to mention King Abdullah of Jordan whose air force also shot down the drones. If these relations, along with the U.S., are tested and pushed beyond their limits, Israel’s vulnerability becomes contentious to say the least.

And so how Netanyahu plays his cards in the coming days is crucial for Israel to stay on good terms with its western allies but also to realistically stay in the game. Iran’s drone attack has opened up a can of worms now which Biden would have preferred wouldn’t have been opened. According to some reports, it is believed that Biden told Netanyahu now to back down and leave the Iranians, fearing the situation spiralling out of control. Could Biden seriously go to the polls in December of this year with a foreign policy cheat sheet which listed pulling out of Afghanistan, starting a war in the Ukraine which will humiliate him and NATO when Russia inevitably wins and now start a world war with Iran? Seasoned analysts have ventured that he will not be able to hold himself back from upping the stakes and going for a revenge attack on Iran or its proxies. This of course would test the relationship with the U.S. and push it to its very limit – a stunt which Biden is hoping very much will not be carried out by Netanyahu. Given that this will almost certainly bring the relationship between Biden and Netanyahu to breaking point and will give Iran the victory either way, it’s hard to see how most western pundits failed to see the drone strike as a great victory for Tehran. Netanyahu’s gambit will be that Biden is weak and now lost in the maze of Middle Eastern warmongering. He will also think that Biden will need to present himself to the hawks in Washington as a victor and so is now in deeper more than ever before, as options run out and the window for rational thinking seems to now no longer be. Biden’s nightmare with Netanyahu is just starting.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... relations/

Iran’s lame “retaliation” makes it worse for Gaza

Finian Cunningham

April 15, 2024

Tehran refers to the United States as the Great Satan. After this debacle, Iran’s leadership runs the risk of being mocked as the Great Pretender.

The Iranian wave of air attacks against Israel was in the end a damp squib. It has to be said. Virtually all the 300 incoming warheads were shot down by Israel’s air defense systems.

But the seeming “success” of Israeli air defenses was not down to the technological brilliance of the U.S.-supplied missile intercept systems. It was down to the fact that Iran had quietly given a heads-up on what was coming. That may seem preposterous. What? Working with the Great Satan and the Zionist Entity?

Well, that’s what it does seem.

It seems that Iran got to release its fury over the deadly Israeli air strike on its Consulate in Damascus on April 1. That may take the pressure off the Iranian leadership from popular anger over Israel’s murderous provocations.

But the limp display of retaliation could make the genocide in Gaza even more appalling.

The weekend outpouring of support for Israel from the United States and European leaders is cringeworthy. In the aftermath of the Iranian ballistic missile and drone assaults on Israel, all Western politicians and diplomats are declaring their renewed solidarity with the Zionist regime and extolling its “right to self-defense”.

The United States, Canada, Japan, the G7, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and so on, have all rushed to valorize Israel and excoriate Iran.

Iran is roundly condemned for aggression against Israel and for “recklessly destabilizing” the region. How bizarre and disgraceful is that?

Israel is committing all-out genocide in Gaza with impunity and has for the past six months stepped up its attacks on Syria and Lebanon, killing civilians as well as dozens of Iranian officials based in the countries, some of them senior commanders. Israel brazenly carried out an egregious act of aggression by bombing the Iranian Consulate in Damascus killing a top Iranian military general. And yet when Iran responds as it did at the weekend with air strikes on Israel – as it is fully entitled to do under international laws of self-defense – the entire Western official position is to condemn and vilify Iran.

No Western response has mentioned the initial crime by Israel violating Iran’s sovereignty.

Washington is now stepping up calls for Congress to pass the supplemental military aid bill that will grant Israel some $14 billion in additional military support, as well as send $61 billion to the Ukrainian regime.

Deplorably, the latest Iranian action is allowing the Western media focus to shift away from the horrific crimes of Israel in Gaza. Incredibly, the genocidal Zionist regime is being presented as the “victim” of Iranian state terrorism and is being allowed to intensify its mass murder of Palestinian women and children.

Iran’s supposed retaliation for Israel’s aggression seems to have been coordinated well in advance with the Americans to minimize damage. Tehran had told Washington it did not want escalation and appeared to give assurances that its military action would be minimal. Washington likewise signaled it did not want escalation, which is a huge oxymoron given all the violence the U.S. has enabled Israel to inflict.

It seems the United States had up to 72 hours’ notice from the Iranian leadership about the much-anticipated air strikes on Israeli territory. That would have given Israel plenty of time to ready its air defense system to ensure maximum interception of attacks.

The vociferous condemnations of Iran by the United States and its European allies appear to be more earnest pandering to Israel and emboldening its psychopathic persecution complex. The Western states will appease the Zionist regime even more with increased military and political support to do its worst in Gaza. Pity the starving Palestinians under relentless indiscriminate bombardment.

Iran’s self-defense attack on Israel was not an evening of scores. Far from it. Yes, it constituted a new threshold of being the first time that Iran directly targeted Israeli territory. Some would say it was about time, given the many times Israel has violated Iran’s sovereignty over many years. But despite the bravado talk about a “historic attack”, the damage inflicted by Iran was minimal and, what’s more, stage-managed to be minimal in a cynical shadow game with the United States and its Israeli client.

Hawkish voices in the U.S. like John Bolton and Israel are calling for Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to now order attacks on Iran.

There’s no need for Israel to “get even” again. It has been killing Iranian military officers and nuclear scientists with impunity, and Tehran has done effectively nothing.

The lame air strikes by Iran will have done nothing to impose a balance of deterrence. Israel and its Western sponsors will continue to commit genocide against Palestinians with even more disgusting gusto.

Iran would have been better to have held off altogether than to have done his half-hearted stunt. At least then the popular international opprobrium against Israel and its Western enablers would have continued to build. As it is, now the focus is diverted from the genocidal Israeli-Western axis and is on condemning Iran for aggression, even though the “aggression” was nothing of the sort.

Iran’s air attacks amounted to a fireworks display that did nothing to restore justice or help the Palestinians. Ironically, it will increase regional instability, because the lack of seriousness emboldens the Western-Zionist state terrorism even more.

Tehran refers to the United States as the Great Satan. After this debacle, Iran’s leadership runs the risk of being mocked as the Great Pretender.

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:10 pm

US Makes Failed Bid for Iran To Allow ‘Symbolic Strike’ by Israel
APRIL 16, 2024

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An Iranian Revolutionary Guard officer, with the Israeli flag drawn on his boots, is seen during the graduation ceremony, held for military cadets at a military academy, in Tehran, Iran, June 30, 2018. Photo: Reuters.

Washington used diplomatic backchannels to ask Tehran not to retaliate to an Israeli strike, which would allow Tel Aviv to ‘save face’ following the massive retaliatory attack launched by Iran

An Iranian military security official has revealed exclusively to The Cradle that the US contacted the Islamic Republic, asking the nation to allow Israel “a symbolic strike to save face” following Iran’s retaliatory drone and missile barrage this weekend.

“Iran has received messages from mediators to let the regime do a symbolic strike to save face and asked Iran not to retaliate,” the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, revealed to The Cradle.

He added that Tehran “outright rejected” the proposal, delivered by mediators, and reiterated warnings that any Israeli attack on Iranian soil would be met with a decisive and immediate response.

The reply was delivered directly to the Swiss envoy in Tehran by officials from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and not the foreign ministry. According to The Cradle’s source, the decision for the IRGC to reply directly was meant “to send a strong warning to the US.”

“Iran successfully embarrassed all of the integrated radar network and anti-missile systems of the US and the [Israeli] regime. The US even activated its parked satellites over the region to do maximum protection and failed miserably,” the Iranian military official added.

The revelations come as US defense officials have told western media that they expect a “limited response” from Israel against Iran, which will reportedly focus on targets outside of Iranian territory.



Nevertheless, US officials stressed that Tel Aviv had not briefed the Pentagon on a “final decision” as discussions within Israel’s fractured war cabinet continued.

“The US does not intend to take part in the military response,” they confirmed. However, they expect Israel to inform Washington about response plans in advance.

Israel has publicly vowed to respond to the Iranian operation this weekend, which saw the launch of hundreds of drones, ballistic and cruise missiles by the Islamic Republic in retaliation to the Israeli bombing of Iran’s consulate in Damascus.

“This launch of so many missiles, cruise missiles and drones into Israeli territory will be met with a response,” Israeli army chief of staff, Lt Gen Herzi Halevi, said on Sunday, speaking from the Nevatim air force base in southern Israel, which was one of three military targets successfully hit by the Iranian barrage.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani told state TV on Monday night that Tehran’s response to any Israeli retaliation would come in “a matter of seconds, as Iran will not wait for another 12 days to respond.”

https://orinocotribune.com/us-makes-fai ... by-israel/

Iran Had Legal Right to Counter-Attack Israel in Self-Defense
APRIL 16, 2024

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By Ben Norton – Apr 14, 2024

Israel first attacked Iran’s embassy in Syria on April 1, in an act of war. Tehran had a legal right to respond in self-defense, according to article 51 of the UN Charter, which it did with missiles and drone strikes on April 13.

Iran launched a historic attack on April 13, hitting Israel with hundreds of drones and missiles.

Tehran invoked article 51 of the charter of the United Nations, which allowed it to act in self-defense in response to Israel’s bombing of Iran’s embassy in Syria on April 1.

The US, Canada, and European governments loudly condemned Iran’s April 13 attack, portraying Tehran as the aggressor. However, Western officials failed to mention that Iran was acting in self-defense.



Before the Iranian counter-attack, the leading British think tank Chatham House published an article admitting that the “Israeli attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus on 1 April marks an unprecedented escalation by Israel against Iran in Syria”.

Tel Aviv killed top Iranian military officers, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Chatham House stated that the April 1 attack was “the clearest signal yet of Israel’s determination to shift the conflict’s rules of engagement”, by “directly eliminating Iranian leadership”.

Israel’s bombing of Iran’s diplomatic facilities in Syria violated the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which states that embassies and consulates constitute the sovereign territory of the countries to which they belong.

The US, UK, and France shielded Israel from legal consequences for its act of war against Iran by blocking a resolution in the UN Security Council on April 4 that would have condemned the attack on Tehran’s embassy.

By preventing the UN Security Council from taking action, Western governments made an Iranian counter-attack inevitable.

Before April 13, Western officials knew that Iran was preparing a response.



US President Joe Biden threatened Iran on April 12, ordering Tehran not to attack Israel.

During the April 13 Iranian strikes, the US and UK militaries were directly involved in backing Israel, helping to shoot down Iranian drones. Jordan’s military likewise joined in support of Israel.

While launching its counter-attack, Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations invoked article 51 of the UN Charter “following a 13-day period marked by the Security Council’s inaction and silence, coupled with its failure to condemn the Israeli regime’s aggressions”.

Tehran denounced “Certain countries’ precipitous condemnation of Iran’s exercise of its legitimate right suggests a reversal of roles, equating the victim with the criminal”.

Iran’s invocation of Article 51 of the UN Charter occurred following a 13-day period marked by the Security Council’s inaction and silence, coupled with its failure to condemn the Israeli regime’s aggressions. Certain countries’ precipitous condemnation of Iran’s exercise of its… pic.twitter.com/knuJrzS4ji

— Permanent Mission of I.R.Iran to UN, NY (@Iran_UN) April 14, 2024

In their statements “strongly condemning” Iran’s April 13 counter-attack, US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres all failed to mention that Tehran was acting in self-defense, and had a legal right to respond to Israel’s act of war.

Also left unmentioned was the fact that Israel has repeatedly bombed Lebanon, deep inside its sovereign territory; that a top UN expert has formally accused Israel of genocide in Gaza; and that Israel has flagrantly violated a ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at the Hague that ordered Tel Aviv to stop killing Palestinians and to honor the Genocide Convention.

https://orinocotribune.com/iran-had-leg ... f-defense/

Legitimate Defense: Deconstructing the Legality of Iran’s Retaliation Against Israel
APRIL 15, 2024

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By Xavier Villar – Apr 15, 2024

Late on Saturday, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) launched a barrage of drones and missiles at the occupied Palestinian territories in what was a fitting response to the Zionist regime’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1.

The attack on the consulate resulted in the assassination of seven Iranian military advisors, including two high-ranking IRGC commanders who were in Syria as advisers invited by the Syrian government.

The Zionist attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Syria represented a blatant violation of all international conventions, especially the Geneva and Vienna Conventions.

From the Iranian perspective, the lack of condemnation by the UN Security Council of the cowardly attack showed an utter disregard for international law that the same institutions ought to uphold.

In the absence of the UNSC’s condemnation, and the provocative stance adopted by the Israeli regime’s Western allies, Iran had no choice but to respond militarily, within the limits established by international law, to restore its deterrent capability.

Pertinently, the Iranian delegation to the United Nations made it emphatically clear that Iran’s response could have been avoided had the UN Security Council condemned the Damascus consulate attack.

“If the UN Security Council had condemned the reprehensible act of aggression by the Zionist regime against our diplomatic facilities in Damascus and subsequently brought its perpetrators to justice, the need for Iran to punish this hostile regime could have been avoided,” it stated on social media.

From a political standpoint, it can be argued that the operation “True Promise” launched by the Islamic Republic falls within the framework of international law, specifically within Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, and within the right to self-defense of any state.

The differences between the Iranian response and the Zionist attack are more than evident. While Israel attacks diplomatic facilities or, in the case of Palestine, the civilian population indiscriminately, Iran, from a rational perspective and within the limits imposed by international law, exclusively targeted military installations in the occupied territories, exercising its right to self-defense.

Within this framework of self-defense, Iran’s mission in Geneva issued a statement in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

It was affirmed in the statement that exercising the inherent right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, Iran carried out a series of military attacks against targets in the occupied territories, as a response to repeated military aggressions of the Israeli regime.

The attack on the consulate in Damascus was not the first such aggression. The Israeli regime has repeatedly targeted Iranian military officers in Syria in recent months, including Gen. Reza Mousavi in December.

These actions, particularly the attack against the Iranian diplomatic facility, contravene Article 2 of the United Nations Charter and constitute a clear violation of international law.

These attacks have aimed to thwart the attempts of the UN Security Council to adopt the necessary measures to condemn and hold the aggressors accountable.

According to the United Nations Charter on the use of force in international relations, there are two fundamental legal principles:

The principle of prohibition of the use of force (Article 2, paragraph 4).
The inherent right to self-defense (Article 51).

According to these principles, states have the right to defend themselves through the use of military force when subject to an armed attack until the Security Council takes necessary measures.

This defense can be individual or collective, but in any case, it must not exceed the necessity limit, must be carried out urgently, and the proportionality of the forces used to repel the attack must be respected.

The military attack by Israel on the Iranian consulate, regardless of violating Syria’s national sovereignty and constituting an act of aggression against Iran, can be considered, according to Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, as the primary element of the right to self-defense.



This aggression and violation of sovereignty have led to Iran’s legitimate right to defense.

The recourse to legitimate defense, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, is permitted in the event of an armed attack.

The definition of an armed attack can be determined with reference to UN General Assembly Resolution 3314, adopted as the definition of aggression in December 1974.

According to this resolution, the invasion or attack by the armed forces of one entity against the land, sea, or air forces of another entity is considered an act of aggression.

In this sense, Benjamin Netanyahu’s regime’s action was deemed an aggressive attack and provided the basis for the exercise of legitimate defense by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

From a military perspective, Operation “True Promise,” carried out by the IRGC in coordination with other units of the Iranian army (Artesh), aimed at the Zionist military base of Nevatim, located in the southern Negev Desert.

According to reports, multiple drone and missile attacks were preceded by a series of cyberattacks on the electrical grid and radar systems of the Zionist regime, leading to widespread power outages in the area. The Iranian hacker group “Cyber Av3ngers” released a statement claiming responsibility for the power outages in various parts of the occupied territories.

Around 11:00 PM Iran time, the IRGC’s aerospace division officially launched a military retaliation operation against the Zionist regime, conducting at least four waves of drone attacks.

As reported by Press TV, the first wave included dozens of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, around 100 units in total, whose flight was also recorded by cameras in Iran and Iraq.

Following the first wave, three more attacks followed at intervals of approximately half an hour, with an estimated total of 400 to 500 drones launched.

The next step in the retaliatory military operation was the launch of a series of cruise and ballistic missiles, which reportedly were accompanied by simultaneous drone and missile attacks by groups from the Resistance Axis in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon.

In addition to the aforementioned attack on the Nevatim airbase, Iranian missiles also struck the Ramon airbase, also located in the occupied Negev region.

The proportionality of the Iranian operation, always within the limits imposed by international law on self-defense, was expressed by the top IRGC commander General Hossein Salami, who said “Our operations were limited and solely a response to the Zionist entity’s attack on our consulate in Damascus.”

He also emphasized that “any reckless response from the enemy will be met with greater firmness and harshness,” a warning that the regime appears to have heeded.

The Iranian response must also be viewed from the perspective of national pride, something that is not in contradiction with the principles of international legality previously mentioned.

Lastly, the “True Promise” operation demonstrated that Israel’s self-sufficiency in security and military matters is a myth. It is not capable of facing an attack of such magnitude without external support.

https://orinocotribune.com/legitimate-d ... st-israel/

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PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN ANSWERS PRESIDENT EBRAHIM RAISI’S TELEPHONE CALL – WHAT EACH HEARD THE OTHER SAY

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

On Tuesday afternoon the Kremlin announced that President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi “at the Iranian side’s initiative.”

The Kremlin communiqué was posted at 1540 Moscow time. What followed was reported by Raisi’s office at 1808 Tehran time.

There was a lag of two hours between the announcements. The two scripts are very different.

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The Kremlin record says: “The presidents discussed in detail the situation in the Middle East, escalated by Israel’s air strike at the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus and Iran’s retaliation measures. Vladimir Putin expressed hope that all sides will exercise sensible restraint and will not allow a new round of confrontation that may be fraught with disastrous consequences for the entire region.”

“In turn, Ebrahim Raisi noted that Iran’s actions had been forced and limited. At the same time, he emphasised that Tehran is not interested in further escalation of tensions. Both leaders stated that the unresolved Palestinian-Israeli conflict was the root cause of the current developments in the Middle East.”

Then the two presidents agreed it was back to their strategic business. “During the exchange of views on the current issues of Russia-Iran relations, both leaders expressed their mutual intention to promote steady bilateral cooperation across different areas, including the implementation of mutually beneficial infrastructure projects.”

The Iranian president’s record of the conversation was posted by PressTV, Iran’s English-language broadcaster, between 1808 and 1817, Tehran time. Taking into account the 30-minute difference between the two capitals, the Iranian version appears to have been published two hours after the Kremlin communiqué appeared.

According to Raisi’s report, “ ‘What the Islamic Republic of Iran did in response to what happened criminally and in the light of the inaction of the [UN] Security Council, was the best way to punish the aggressor and represented the tactfulness and rationality of Iran’s politicians,’ Putin said. The Russian president said the Israeli regime’s ‘terrorist act’ against the Iranian consulate in Damascus was against all international standards and rules. He also strongly criticized the United States and certain Western countries for creating tension in the region. ‘We believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the main pillars of stability and security in the region.’”

In the PressTV report, Raisi added in his remarks to Putin: “ ‘The destructive role of the US and some western countries and the inaction and inefficiency of international institutions, including the United Nations and the Security Council, in dealing with the aggressive action of the Zionist regime in attacking the Iranian consulate in Syria caused the Islamic Republic of Iran to exercise its right to self-defense.’ Raisi further thanked Moscow for its ‘principled and constructive’ stance against the Israeli aggression in Damascus.”

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Thu Apr 18, 2024 2:47 pm

THE LAST BLACKOUT FOR ISRAEL WAS LIFTED BY GOD’S TEMPLE MIRACLE 2,188 YEARS AGO – ISRAEL IS PROVOKING IRAN TO INFLICT A NEW BLACKOUT TO TEST WHICH SIDE GOD IS ON NOW

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

Israel is rattled.

It’s now up to Iran (lead image, left, President Ebrahim Raisi) leader of the Arab resistance and warfighting alliance – Hamas, Hezbollah, Ansar Allah (Houthis), and the Syrian and Iraqi groups – to demonstrate that they can stop the genocidal schemes of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), and the Jewish theocracy (right, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) it enforces as a state; or failing that, to neutralize Israel’s capacities to fight a war of attrition over everything states must have – electricity, ports, money, firepower, defences.

The Arab leadership understood this before the Iranians. In 1983 Saddam Hussein told a meeting of Iraqi Army generals: “Human nature represented by the heart of the families and sisters of the Iraqi martyrs in their own weeping and mourning will always be felt; but the Iraqis are better prepared than ever to deal with it. If it ever happens that the Iraqi people were in a conflict with their Israeli enemy, then the Iraqis would be able to withstand three years of fighting in a war. However, the Israelis cannot withstand one year of fighting in a war.”

Seven years later in 1990, Hussein was talking in Baghdad with Yasser Arafat of the Palestine Liberation Organization: “[Arafat]: [Israel] has 240 nuclear warheads, 12 out of them for each Arab capital…[Hussein]: I say this and I am very calm and wearing a civil suit [everyone laughs]. But I say this so that we can get ready at this level.”

Readiness at this level was not achieved by the Iraqis, or by Hussein himself. Hamas has demonstrated since last October that the Israelis are unready. Iran demonstrated this again last weekend, despite what Israel claims to have been a near-perfect interception rate: enough missiles got through to strategic targets to prove that with hypersonic speed, higher yield warheads, and better accuracy, the next round of Iranian missiles will be unstoppable. This prospect is what is rattling the Israelis now.

As of today’s broadcast on Gorilla Radio and writing this, it is 3:30 on Thursday morning in Tehran: the Israeli attack which has been telegraphed through the British foreign minister, Baron Cameron, has not yet materialized.

When it happens – if it happens — the evidence to gather, before the scope of the Iranian response can be calculated, includes what types of targets were struck, military or civil; where the attack was launched from; what role US intelligence and military support played in execution of Israel’s operation; and what role Russia is playing in early warning, missile tracking, electronic countermeasures, and defence on the Iranian side.

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When the Iranian counterattack happens, if it happens, there should be no counting by the Israeli and US side on a divine miracle to keep Jerusalem’s lights burning. The last one of those, according to the religion of the Israeli state (and also of presidential candidate Donald Trump),
was the Chanukah one. That was in 164 BC, when the Judaean rebels recaptured the Temple in Jerusalem from the Seleucid Greek army. In trying to relight the menorah (right) they found they had only one container of oil — enough fuel for one candle for one day. God was asked for resupply, so Prime Minister Netanyahu and General Gallant believe. He then delivered by stretching the one-day fuel stock to last for eight days – enough divine miracle time for the Judaeans to refine a new supply for themselves.

Read the story of the 2,188-year old blackout miracle here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maccabean ... 20Hanukkah

Read the background to the Electric War, if Iran and its allies decide to wage it against Israel – click. https://johnhelmer.net/loose-lips-dont- ... or-israel/

In the 30-minute broadcast which followed on Gorilla Radio, Chris Cook leads the discussion. Click to listen, starting at Minute 29. https://gradio.substack.com/p/gorilla-r ... ook-stuart

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2009 US Policy Paper Planned Current Israeli-Iranian Tensions
APRIL 17, 2024

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A graphic depicting cogs in a machine with an Iranian flag (Left) and an Israeli flag (Right) over a backdrop of the globe. Photo: New Eastern Outlook.

By Brian Berletic – Apr 15, 2024

Since October 7, 2023 it would appear a spontaneous chain of events is leading the Middle East deeper and deeper into conflict. From Israel’s ongoing military operations in Gaza to its strikes on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and repeated strikes across Syria (including the recent strike on Iran’s embassy in Damascus), to the ongoing US-led confrontation with Yemen in the Red Sea, it would appear that poor diplomacy is failing to prevent escalation and is instead leading to mounting tensions and a growing potential for wider war.

In reality, almost verbatim, US-Israeli diplomacy (or lack thereof) and military operations are following a carefully laid out policy described in the pages of the Brooking Institution’s 2009 paper, “Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy Toward Iran.”

Washington’s Middle East Playbook
The Brookings Institution is a Washington-based think tank funded by both the US government and military, as well as the largest corporate-financier interests across the collective West. Its board of directors and experts are among the most prominent figures in US foreign policy and political circles. What is produced in the institution’s papers is far from speculation or commentary, but instead reflects a consensus regarding the direction of US foreign policy.

Its 2009 paper is no exception. For those who read its 170 pages in 2009, they would have learned about ongoing or future plans to overthrow or contain the Iranian government.

There are entire chapters regarding “diplomatic options” which laid out plans to appear to engage with Iran in a deal regarding its nuclear program, unilaterally abandoning the plan, and then using its failure as a pretext to apply further pressure on the Iranian government and economy (Chapter 2: Tempting Tehran: The Engagement Option).

There are chapters that detail methods of creating unrest within Iran, both by using US government-funded opposition groups (Chapter 6: The Velvet Revolution: Supporting a Popular Uprising) and even through supporting US State Department-listed foreign terrorist organizations like the Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) (Chapter 7: Inspiring an Insurgency: Supporting Iranian Minority and Opposition Groups).

Other chapters detail a direct US invasion (Chapter 3: Going All the Way: Invasion) and a smaller scale air campaign (Chapter 4: The Osiraq Option: Airstrikes).

Finally, a whole chapter is dedicated to using Israel to trigger a war the US could then appear reluctant to wade into afterwards, (Chapter 5: Leave it to Bibi: Allowing or Encouraging an Israeli Military Strike).

Since 2009, each and every one of these options has either been tried (in some cases multiple times) or is in the process of being implemented. The so-called Iran Nuclear Deal signed under the administration of US President Barack Obama, unilaterally abandoned under the administration of US President Donald Trump, and efforts to revive it blocked under the administration of US President Joe Biden is an illustration of not just how faithful US foreign policy unfolded in regard to the paper’s contents, but the continuity of this policy regardless of who sat in the White House or controlled the US Congress.

Today, one of the most dangerous options explored appears to be fully in motion, with the US and Israel deliberately creating a permissive environment across the Middle East for war and repeatedly provoking Iran to trigger it.

“Leave it to Bibi”
The Brookings Institution makes several points clear. First, Iran is not interested in war with either the United States or Israel. Second, the US must take great effort to convince the world that Iran, not Washington, provoked a US-desired war. And third, even if repeatedly provoked, there is a high likelihood Iran would not retaliate and therefore deny the US and/or Israel a pretext for wider war.

The report notes:

…it would be far more preferable if the United States could cite an Iranian provocation as justification for the airstrikes before launching them. Clearly, the more outrageous, the more deadly, and the more unprovoked the Iranian action, the better off the United States would be. Of course, it would be very difficult for the United States to goad Iran into such a provocation without the rest of the world recognizing this game, which would then undermine it.

It continues:

(One method that would have some possibility of success would be to ratchet up covert regime change efforts in the hope that Tehran would retaliate overtly, or even semi-overtly, which could then be portrayed as an unprovoked act of Iranian aggression.)

The paper is admitting the US seeks war with Iran, but wants to convince the world it is Iran itself provoking it.

The paper lays out the framework for a disingenuous diplomatic tract Washington could take with Tehran to enhance the illusion that Iran will be to blame for any war between it and the US (or Israel):

In a similar vein, any military operation against Iran will likely be very unpopular around the world and require the proper international context—both to ensure the logistical support the operation would require and to minimize the blowback from it. The best way to minimize international opprobrium and maximize support (however, grudging or covert) is to strike only when there is a widespread conviction that the Iranians were given but then rejected a superb offer—one so good that only a regime determined to acquire nuclear weapons and acquire them for the wrong reasons would turn it down. Under those circumstances, the United States (or Israel) could portray its operations as taken in sorrow, not anger, and at least some in the international community would conclude that the Iranians “brought it on themselves” by refusing a very good deal.

Israel plays a key role in this strategy. While Washington seeks to appear to be distancing itself from Israeli brutality amid its operations in Gaza as well as its recent strike on Iran’s embassy in Damascus, such provocations are central to Washington’s own desire to pull Iran into a war it admits Tehran does not want to fight.

The 2009 paper anticipates that Israeli strikes on Iran could, “trigger a wider conflict between Israel and Iran that could draw in the United States and other countries.”

In reality, Israel’s brutality amid its Gaza operations and its most recent strike on Iran’s embassy are enabled entirely by US political, diplomatic, and military aid. The US not only gives Israel the military means to carry out this violence, it uses its position within the United Nations to lend impunity to Israel as it does so, as illustrated in the Washington Post’s April 4, 2024 article, “U.S. approved more bombs to Israel on day of World Central Kitchen strikes.”

Many analysts appear surprised by Washington’s paradoxical behavior, willing to believe the current Biden Administration is simply incompetent and unable to rein in its Israeli allies. However, considering the central role such egregious provocations play in advancing stated US foreign policy objectives against Iran, this should come as no surprise at all.

All that is required now is an Iranian retaliation, or an incident the US and Israel can convince the world was an Iranian retaliation.



Washington’s Greatest Fear is that Iran Won’t Retaliate
Iran has suffered US and Israeli provocations for decades. Perhaps the most egregious provocation in recent years prior to the Israeli strike on Iran’s embassy in Damascus was the US assassination of senior Iranian military officer Qasem Soleimani in Iraq in 2020. While Iran did retaliate, it did so in a measured manner.

The attack on Iran’s embassy on April 1, 2024 was designed specifically to surpass the scale of the 2020 assassination, hoping to place irresistible pressure on Tehran to finally overreact specifically because of the strategic patience Iran has exhibited in the past. It may also be to convince the world that irresistible pressure has been placed on Iran to make a staged attack blamed on Iran seem more believable.

The 2009 Brookings paper, “Which Path to Persia?” clearly stated the problem (emphasis added):

It would not be inevitable that Iran would lash out violently in response to an American air campaign, but no American president should blithely assume that it would not. Iran has not always retaliated for American attacks against it. Initially, after the destruction of Pan Am Flight 103 in December 1988, many believed that this was Iranian retaliation for the shooting down of Iran Air Flight 455 by the American cruiser USS Vincennes in July of that year. However, today all of the evidence points to Libya as the culprit for that terrorist attack, which if true would suggest that Iran never did retaliate for its loss. Nor did Iran retaliate for America’s Operation Praying Mantis, which in 1988 resulted in the sinking of most of Iran’s major warships. Consequently, it is possible that Iran would simply choose to play the victim if attacked by the United States, assuming (probably correctly) that this would win the clerical regime considerable sympathy both domestically and internationally.

Washington has attempted to convince the world it fears escalation between Israel and Iran. Newsweek in its April 4, 2024 article, “White House ‘Very Concerned’ About Prospect of Israel-Iran War,” would even quote the White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby as saying, “nobody wants to see this conflict escalate.”

Despite Washington’s words, its actions demonstrate an eager desire toward escalation. The 2009 Brookings paper admits that even a “semi-overt” retaliation by Iran could be used as a pretext, which should prompt fears that the US and Israel may cite any attack, regardless of the party responsible, and assign blame to Iran to justify further escalation.

In many ways, both the US and Israel have already attempted to do this in regard to the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, despite admitting there is no evidence of Iran’s involvement.

Washington & its Proxies are Desperate and Dangerous
Strategic patience has paid off well for Iran. By avoiding outright war with either the US or Israel, it and its allies have been able to slowly but surely reshape the region. Iran has done this by circumventing US sanctions. It is also closing the artificial rifts the US has cultivated since the end of World War 2 to divide and rule the Middle East. This includes repairing its own relations with Saudi Arabia and repairing ties between its ally Syria and Washington’s Persian Gulf allies.

As the region reshapes itself, the US is finding its primacy over it waning. Washington’s list of willing proxies is growing shorter. Washington’s proxies who remain are finding themselves increasingly isolated. And as each year passes, Washington’s military power in the region becomes increasingly tenuous. Iran, if it continues along the successful path it has taken, will inevitably prevail over US interference along and within its borders.

The only prospect the US has of reasserting itself over the region and advancing its regime change policy toward Iran is by provoking a large-scale war, in which the US (and/or Israel) can use direct military force to accomplish what decades of sanctions and subversion have failed to do. Eventually, the window of opportunity to do even this will close for both the US and Israel as Iran and the rest of the multipolar world continue to grow and the US and its proxies continue to find themselves increasingly isolated.

As the US has revealed in Europe regarding its proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, this quickly closing window of opportunity has triggered dangerous desperation in Washington.

Only time will tell just how far this desperation compels US foreign policy in the Middle East and the actions of its proxies, especially Israel. Washington’s other proxy, Ukraine, has resorted to desperate measures ranging from extraterritorial terrorism to strikes on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in a dangerous bid to change its flagging fortunes. Israel actually possesses nuclear weapons, making Washington’s desperation in the Middle East all that much more dangerous.

(New Eastern Outlook.)

https://orinocotribune.com/2009-us-poli ... -tensions/

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Iran And Saudi Arabia - A Common Future Looking East

In March 2023 Iran and Saudi Arabia restored their diplomatic ties with each other. The deal had been mediated by China.

As I remarked at that time:

This is huge!
...
Reviving relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran will make a lot of new things possible.
That Iran and Saudi Arabia accepted China's mediation is a recognition of Beijing's new standing in world policies. That alone is enough reason for the White House to hate the deal.


I later summarized the diplomatic action in the Middle East:

For the last 30 years the U.S. considered the Middle East as its backyard. Twenty years ago it illegally invaded Iraq and caused 100,000nds of death and decades of chaos. Now China, by peaceful means, changed the balance in the Middle East within just one month.
...
Xi and Putin are now running the multilateral global show. Biden and the hapless 'unilateral' people around him are left aside.


Amwaj.media, which translates everything into Persian, Arabic and English, has published a piece written by two academics from Iran and Saudi Arabia. Such cooperation is still rare. This can then be seen as a semi-official explanation and/or vision of those countries' global policies.

The piece confirms the loss of U.S. influence and the rise of China's role in the Middle East:

How Gaza war is pushing the region eastward

The unwavering US support for Israel’s war on Gaza has left a bitter taste in the region. Anger is mounting not only in the Arab world but also across the Global South, over what is seen as western double standards towards Israel’s continued onslaught. There is a unified demand for a ceasefire and sharp criticism of what it viewed as unchecked Israeli aggression.
...
One main trend of regional dynamics in recent years has been a pivot to the east. Underscoring this shift, Iran and Saudi Arabia in Mar. 2023 struck a deal to resume diplomatic ties in a historic agreement brokered by China. In particular, Beijing’s role in the breakthrough sent a clear message to Washington that it is not the only diplomatic heavyweight in the region.
Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have their own individual reasons for prioritizing better relations with their neighbors. For Tehran, getting closer to Riyadh presents a unique opportunity to break free from its economic isolation—after enduring years of US sanctions—by diversifying economic and political partnerships.
...
For Saudi Arabia, looking east is part and parcel of its ambitious Vision 2030—an extensive reform plan aimed at diversifying its economy. China, India, and Russia are key partners in realizing this vision, given their expansive trading relations with Riyadh. [...]

Overall, Riyadh understands that the success of Vision 2030, particularly the touristic aspect of it, partially hinges on a safer neighborhood. The attacks on Saudi oil installations in 2019, which were blamed on Tehran but claimed by Yemen’s Ansarullah movement—better known as the Houthis—marked a turning point.

The Kingdom was shocked by the lack of US action, [...]


The U.S. plan to bring the Arab states and Israel together into an anti-Iranian coalition gets rejected, the scholars write, because of lack of U.S. pressure on Israel to pursue a two state solution.

In consequence:

[T]he US is losing its standing among regional countries as a security partner. To many, the full-fledged western support for Israel is incomprehensible—and jeopardizes their own safety. [...]
All in all, pivoting towards Asia has become an attractive alternative for regional players seeking to counter US hegemony. Non-western countries are less open to adhering to Washington’s rules for the game, and this inclination will further consolidate intra-regional relationships—especially as key actors find more similarities than differences.
Although the perception of US double standards is not new, the willingness of non-western countries to challenge this amid a changing global order has increased. Previously, regional players tolerated the status quo as the US was seen as the sole superpower. However, with the rise of new global powers in the east, these actors see no reason to stay silent about the suffering in Gaza while passively accepting the moral arguments of the US regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine. If the current trend continues, western influence in a region where it has long been dominant will diminish.


This is quite a slap to the Biden administration which still seems to dream that it can broker some Saudi-Israeli deal and isolate Iran with it.

The times where the U.S. could dictate to the Middle East are definitely over.

Posted by b on April 17, 2024 at 16:13 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/04/i ... .html#more
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Iran

Post by blindpig » Fri Apr 19, 2024 3:42 pm

Fog of Escalation: Israel Strike on Iran Sort-of Open Thread
Posted on April 19, 2024 by Yves Smith

Normally I would put up a post on such an important event as Israel (according to US sources) delivering on its promise to strike Iran in retaliation for Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s attack on Iran’s embassy grounds in Damascus.

But there’s not a lot of solid reporting now, even before you get to the heavy spin deployed after Iran was successful in hitting three targets in Israel over last weekend. The eagerness to put narrative stakes in the ground, as the US did pretty successfully in its not-credibly-fast out of the box claim no way, no how did Ukraine have anything to do with the terrorist attack on Russia’s Crocus City Hall, means it makes sense to wait until there’s more commentary (and supporting evidence) regarding the claims made by both sides (as of now, the US, Oman, and Iran; Israel has yet to pipe up).

Remember the competing stories on the Iran strikes over the weekend. As we and many many others have pointed out, the fact of the missiles landing successfully and doing real damage to all the target is the key development. It shows Iran, even in a very well telegraphed salvo, was able to penetrate not just Israeli defenses, but also those of helpers like the US, France, and Jordan. But the Western press took up the line that Iran had sent a ginormaus number of flying thingies at Isreal, and nearly all were shot down. But most were drones whose primary role was to draw fire, both to deplete Israel and its allies’ stockpiles, and to expose how the combined air defenses worked. It would have been shocking, with a five hours flight time, if any of these drones had gotten through.

Scott Ritter, in a detailed discussion of this attack, has deemed that it established that Iran has deterrence dominance.

Now to the current and not exactly clear state of play. US sources declared Israel dunnit per NBC and CNN and that Israel informed the US but the US did not consent or participate.

There are strongly opposed stories as to the degree of damage, if any. The attack was on Isfahan, at just before dawn. Iran says there were only a few drone and they shot them all down. Anadolu Agency reports that US officials, anonymously, natch, depicted it as a ballistic missile attack….but “attack” does not necessarily translate into success. And so far there is a dearth of corroborating evidence:


Although this does not prove the negative, there were also what looked like phone-taken videos purporting to be the sky over Isfahan at the time of the attack, and they look to capture at least some of the drone shoot-downs. There is no footage of a missile entry.

Iran shut its airports only briefly and does not appear to have closed its airspace, Despite Twitter claims otherwise, Lambert looked at a flight tracker and planes were still in the air. Allegedly some airlines like Emirates quickly redirected flights over Iran based on breaking news, as opposed to official directives.

Arab News reports that Iran is downplaying the attack and not planning to retaliate. From its account:

Explosions echoed over an Iranian city on Friday in what sources described as an Israeli attack, but Tehran played down the incident and indicated it had no plans for retaliation — a response that appeared gauged toward averting region-wide war.

The limited scale of the attack and Iran’s muted response both appeared to signal a successful effort by diplomats who have been working round the clock to avert all-out war since an Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel last Saturday.

Iranian media and officials described a small number of explosions, which they said resulted from Iran’s air defenses hitting three drones over the city of Isfahan. Notably, they referred to the incident as an attack by “infiltrators,” rather than by Israel, obviating the need for retaliation.

An Iranian official said there were no plans to respond against Israel for the incident.

“The foreign source of the incident has not been confirmed. We have not received any external attack, and the discussion leans more toward infiltration than attack,” the official said.

A reason to think Israel did less than it might have wanted to was that, despite US hand-wringing about not having anything to do with this affair, is that Haaretz and per below, the Times of Israel reported that the US traded Iran escalation for a green light for Israel to attack Rafah, something the US has heretofore opposed vigorously:

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https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04 ... hread.html

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Suspicious Man Who Entered Iranian Consulate in Paris Arrested

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Security fence around the Iranian consulate in Paris, April 19, 2024. | Photo: X/ @Apa_French

Published 19 April 2024 (2 hours 4 minutes ago)

The presence of a man allegedly carrying explosives triggered security measures.


On Friday noon, Police was taking operation around the Iranian consulate in Paris after a witness saw a man enter carrying a grenade or an explosive waistcoat, reported BFM TV.

Shortly after the authorities confirmed the possible presence of a risk to people, the Research and Intervention Brigade (BRI) arrived at the scene and asked citizens tole. leave the area.

"Service was interrupted on a nearby metro line for security reasons... A person at the Iranian embassy who responded to a call from Reuters declined to provide any information on the situation," Al Arabiya reported.

"It was unclear whether the incident had any link to the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel," it added.

The text reads, "BRI operation underway at Iranian embassy in Paris. Man carrying explosives reported."

Le Parisien reported that the individual entered the consulate and took off his coat, revealing a possible handmade explosive belt.

According to some witnesses, he placed several flags on the floor of the building and assured that his objective was to avenge the death of his brother.

Later, BFM TV reported that the suspect left the consulate of his own free will. He was arrested and searched by BRI agents. Although the authorities did not find explosives on his body, the police searched his vehicle.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Sus ... -0009.html

Iran Returns to Normal After Israeli Attacks

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An Iranian flag, April 2024. | Photo: X/ @khalidaljufai

Following an initial alarm that led to the momentary closure of four airports, life goes on like any other Friday.


On Friday, daily life returns to normal in Iran after the drone attack Israel launched on the province of Isfahan.

Following an initial alarm that led to the momentary closure of four airports, life goes on like any other Friday, a holiday in the Islamic country.

Iranian media presented festive and touristic images to demonstrate the stability of the situation.

For example, agency IRNA released a video of a group of dozens of people singing on the banks of the Zayandeh River in Isfahan, one of the country's main tourist destinations.

Tasnim, an agency linked to the Revolutionary Guard, published videos of passengers boarding planes after the reopening of airports in Tehran, Shiraz, and Isfahan.

Press TV even reported that citizens held new demonstrations in solidarity with Gaza in several Iranian cities, including the holy city of Mashhad.

In the early hours of Friday, Iranian military authorities confirmed that a drone attack occurred in Isfahan, which hosts missile production centers and nuclear facilities.

"The sound is related to the firing of Isfahan's defense systems. We have had no damages or accidents," said the commander of the Iranian Army in the province of Isfahan, Siavosh Mihan-Dust, after Iranian state television reported "loud explosions" in that province.

The Fars agency specified that the sound of "three explosions" occurred near the Shekari airbase in northern Isfahan, amidst reports from the U.S. that Israel had missile strikes, a claim denied in Iran. The Iranian Army later hinted that it would not respond to the new Israeli attack.

"Iran's response has already been seen," said the Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Army, Major General Abdul Rahim Musav, when asked about possible retaliation, apparently referring to the attack on Israel last Saturday.

On April 13, Iran launched a missile and drone attack on Israel in retaliation for the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, when seven members of the Revolutionary Guard were killed.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Ira ... -0004.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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