Blues for Europa

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blindpig
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Thu Apr 04, 2024 2:52 pm

Romania’s Draft Law On Dispatching Troops To Protect Its Compatriots Abroad Is Aimed At Moldova

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ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 04, 2024

There’s been talk since Moldova’s independence of merging with Romania on the basis of their shared ethno-linguistic heritage and to return to the latter’s interwar “natural” borders. Some also speculate that Moldovan President Maia Sandu and her team are dual citizens of Romania who are secretly trying to advance what they regard as the reunification of their countries.

The Romanian Ministry of Defense recently tabled a draft law that would allow the armed forces to intervene abroad in defense of their compatriots. This move is likely aimed against Moldova, where over 1.3 million people have Romanian citizenship due to their shared ethno-linguistic heritage, and not Ukraine despite the Romanian minority there being persecuted for not joining Kiev’s new “church”. It comes amidst the possibility of Russia achieving a military breakthrough across the front lines this year.

In that event, France and/or Poland might lead a conventional NATO intervention in order to prevent Russia from crossing the Dnieper, during which time Romania could annex Moldova on the pretext of defending its compatriots from Transnistrian-emanating Russian threats. Those moves would solidify Western military influence in the erstwhile USSR’s southwestern periphery and could be spun as a major victory ahead of Ukraine’s asymmetrical partition for ending the “war” as part of a compromise.

For as smoothly as some might imagine that these events would unfold, they’re actually fraught with danger since Russian missile strikes on the encroaching conventional NATO forces could be exploited by the bloc’s nuclear-armed members to flirt with World War III. Any NATO attack against Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria or the bloc’s backing of a large-scale Ukrainian one could also prompt the Kremlin to threaten nuclear retaliation in self-defense per its related doctrine and international law.

The same goes for if Romania annexes Moldova and Transnistria is then blockaded as blackmail to coerce a Russian military withdrawal. That unrecognized separatist entity that officially wants to join the Russian Federation but has thus far been rebuffed therefore functions as a tripwire for a wider war, which is why all developments in its region should be watched very carefully in case they risk spiking this scenario. It’s within this very sensitive context that the Romanian Ministry of Defense just tabled their draft law.

There’s been talk since Moldova’s independence of merging with Romania on the basis of their shared ethno-linguistic heritage and to return to the latter’s interwar “natural” borders. Some also speculate that Moldovan President Maia Sandu and her team are dual citizens of Romania who are secretly trying to advance what they regard as the reunification of their countries. Of likely relevance, she also agreed to a security pact with France early last month too, which already has troops and tanks in Romania.

The last-mentioned facts enable France to swiftly intervene in both Moldova and Ukraine, the first of which could see it carry out a joint operation with Romania, and it’s these possibilities that might have been touched upon by the French and Russian Defense Ministers during Wednesday’s conversation. The latter warned his counterpart that conventionally intervening in Ukraine could create problems for France itself, thus hinting that Russia would indeed strike the encroaching forces and not back off.

It's also important to mention that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Sputnik the day after that “As a result of the adventurous actions of even one or two NATO member states, the Ukrainian crisis could go beyond its geographic boundaries and reach a completely different scale.” This remark probably isn’t limited to the scenario of a French conventional intervention in Ukraine but possibly also the complementary one of a Romanian and/or joint French intervention in Moldova.

Both scenarios risk a wider war since they could each lead to NATO-Russian clashes, with the Ukrainian one likely beginning with Russian missiles strikes on the encroaching NATO forces while the Moldovan one could start with a shootout along the Dniester if Transnistria is attacked, blockaded, or threatened. For however strongly some Romanians might feel about annexing/reunifying with Moldova, they’re therefore advised against it lest their country unwittingly becomes responsible for sparking a wider war.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/romanias ... ispatching

The Polish Reaction To Israel’s Bombing Of Foreign Aid Volunteers Isn’t “Anti-Semitic”

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ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 04, 2024

The Israeli Ambassador's scandalous tweet condemning those Poles who disagree with his government’s official story of this three-stage missile attack as “anti-Semites” was extremely offensive not only in and of itself, but also due to the continued Polish-Israeli dispute over responsibility for the Holocaust.

Israeli Ambassador to Poland Yacov Livne sparked an international scandal after tweeting that those Poles who describe his country’s bombing of foreign aid volunteers as “intentional murder” are “anti-Semites”. The IDF apologized for what it said was a “misidentification” after its forces carried out a three-stage missile strike against the World Central Kitchen’s convoy in Gaza. They were traveling along an agreed-upon route with clear identification, however, which is why many believe this was intentional.

Polish society is so vocal about what happened because one of their compatriots was killed during the attack. Livne’s tweet condemning those of them who disagree with his government’s official story as “anti-Semites” was extremely offensive not only in and of itself, but also due to the continued Polish-Israeli dispute over responsibility for the Holocaust. In brief, Israel believes that Poles as a whole are as guilty as the Nazis are, while the Poles themselves remind Israel that they were also the Nazis’ victims.

Interested readers can learn more about this issue here since it’s beyond the scope of the present analysis, but it’s important to add that while bonafide anti-Semitism exists in all societies just like other forms of bigotry do, what’s oftentimes described as “anti-Semitism” in Polish society is anything but. The Commonwealth elite’s reliance on Jews as property managers, tax collectors, and money lenders made that group unpopular with the locals for socio-economic reasons, not ethno-religious ones.

Israel’s historically revisionist twisting of negative Polish views about Jews over the centuries as supposedly being driven by ethno-religious bigotry instead of genuine socio-economic reasons is meant to manipulate foreign perceptions about them in order to blame Poles for the Holocaust. They also ignore the disproportionate Jewish representation in the “Polish People’s Republic’s” brutal secret police during that Soviet-imposed entity’s early years to lie that “anti-Semitism” continued after World War II.

About that, many of the interwar Second Polish Republic’s Jews were impoverished contrary to false stereotypes about what had at that time been the largest Jewish country in the world, which predisposed them to “revolutionary” ideologies like communism. Their involvement in the aforementioned secret police that were imposed onto Poland as part of the Western Allies’ “Neo-Realist” Faustian deal with the USSR was for political reasons, not ethno-religious supremacist ones.

It's therefore equally bigoted for Poles to blame all Jews for the crimes committed against them during the “Polish People’s Republic” as it is for Jews to blame all Poles for the crimes committed against them during the Holocaust. While many Poles realize this, many Israeli Jews still do not, hence why they still blame Poles as a whole for the Holocaust just because a few rogue ones sold some Jews out to the Nazis despite the Underground State’s death penalty against those Poles that betrayed their compatriots.

This extremely emotive context explains why Poles are so offended whenever they’re accused of “anti-Semitism”, the false claim of which Livne doubled down on in an interview shortly after his infamous tweet by smearing pro-Palestinian marches in Poland as “anti-Semitic demonstrations”. He also dodged a question about legal accountability for those IDF members who participated in the three-stage missile strike and whether the Polish victim’s families would receive any compensation from Israel.

His remarks infuriated Poles even more since they implied that perhaps their compatriot deserved to be killed because he might have supposedly been an “anti-Semite”, hence why Livne didn’t promise that those responsible would be held to account or that his family would receive compensation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s dismissive attitude earlier on Wednesday when he downplayed the attack as something that “happens in war” during a short video statement was also very offensive.

His Polish counterpart Donald Tusk tweeted the following in response: “Mr. Prime Minister Netanyahu, Mr. Ambassador Livne, the vast majority of Poles showed full solidarity with Israel after the Hamas attack. Today you are putting this solidarity to a really hard test. The tragic attack on volunteers and your reaction arouse understandable anger.” Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski also reacted earlier in the day to Livne’s tweet in a strongly worded statement that went as follows:

“I would advise the Israeli ambassador to Poland to exercise more restraint and humility. This is the time for him to apologize rather than to inflame emotions.

If it is true what the Israeli press writes, that a humanitarian convoy was deliberately attacked, thinking that there might have been one terrorist there, but one who did not pose an immediate threat to a large group of people, then I do not know of an ethical system in which this is justified, and it arouses my moral indignation.

There was a willingness to sacrifice the lives of seven civilians in order to kill one terrorist, then Israel should apologize for this and pay compensation.”

Livne was also summoned to the Polish Foreign Ministry to discuss the “new situation in Polish-Israeli relations and the moral, political and financial responsibility” according to Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Sejna. Despite all these official statements of displeasure that he himself was directly aware of, Livne still behaved as shamefully as he did during his interview later that day, thus prompting a sharp condemnation from Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz:

“The Israeli ambassador's interview, full of arrogance, proves that there is no reflection in his attitude. As a country, we say clearly: we demand a thorough and objective explanation of the case and compensation for the family of the victim - a volunteer who helped another person and who should never be the target of an attack.”

Each of these reactions is legitimate, and it’s dishonest and disrespectful for Livne to condemn everyone who disagrees with his government’s official story as “anti-Semites”, which by innuendo also includes those top Polish officials who shared their opinion on the matter. This response is worthy of him being declared persona non grata like many Poles on social media are now demanding and it risks lending false credence to actual anti-Semites by making people think that Jews hate Poles for ethno-religious reasons.

The extremely emotive context in which his inflammatory words were made, which concerns Israel’s counterfactual claim that Poles as a whole are as guilty of the Holocaust as the Nazis are, makes it easy for some Poles to be manipulated by bigots into reaching that conclusion. The best way to prevent actual anti-Semitism from spreading throughout Polish society is for Livne to apologize for his false accusations of “anti-Semitism” and be replaced alongside Israel promising to compensate the Polish victim’s family.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-poli ... ls-bombing

France Knows Better Than For Its Foreign Minister To Demand That China Condemns Russia

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ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 04, 2024

France’s top diplomat represents global interests and lacks any fundamental knowledge of the sphere in which he works.

New French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne told his counterpart Wang Yi during talks in Beijing on Monday that “we are clearly expecting that China will send very clear messages to Russia.” The larger context concerns the Ukrainian Conflict’s seemingly inevitable escalation ahead of Russia’s reportedly planned offensive, which precede Switzerland’s presently unscheduled peace talks this summer. Chinese President Xi Jinping is also expected to visit France sometime in early May before both probably happen.

France knows better than for its Foreign Minister to demand that China condemns Russia, however, but this latest faux pas just goes to show how much its diplomacy has changed its recent years. The Valdai Club just published an insightful report a few days prior that sheds light into why this happened. Titled “Crafting National Interests: How Diplomatic Training Impacts Sovereignty”, it compellingly argues that there’s a strong relationship between these two that’s worthy of closer study by interested observers.

According to their research, “The effectiveness of a country’s diplomatic corps, influenced by diplomatic personnel training, manifests itself differently based on its position in the international relations system.” France is assessed as having a “deep tradition of teaching international relations” characterized by a national epistemology and functional approach to diplomatic training, “but the diplomatic profession is experiencing a crisis in France amid reforms introduced by the Élysée Palace.”

They warned that “There is a possibility that this shift could lead the French school towards a more global functional approach, potentially diminishing the national tradition in the study of international relations.” With respect to newly appointed Foreign Minister Sejourne, he has no prior diplomatic experience and is therefore a radical example of this trend’s final manifestation. France’s top diplomat represents global interests and lacks any fundamental knowledge of the sphere in which he works.

To be sure, many of the permanent members of his country’s diplomatic bureaucracy still promote national interests as they’re broadly understood by this class as a whole to be and have extensive expertise, but they weren’t able to influence their boss during his trip to Beijing. This is proven by him demanding that China condemns Russia, which its career diplomats knew better than do, let alone express in a public statement. It’s very embarrassing and reflects poorly on all of France.

The reality is that China won’t condemn Russia since it practices a policy of principled neutrality towards this conflict and envisages itself competing for leadership of the Global South with India, which has the same approach for similarly pragmatic reasons. Neither wants to push Russia closer towards the other amidst their increasingly fierce rivalry, let alone risk discrediting themselves in the eyes of developing countries, some of whom have voted against Russia at the UN but only under Western pressure.

China is a Great Power that describes itself as a major country but functions as a superpower in the international system so any condemnation of Russia via the “very clear message” that France “clearly expects” that it’ll send to that country would amount to it complying with a much weaker country’s demand. That’s completely unacceptable for a proud millennia-long civilization-state that regarded itself as the center of the world for most of its history and is yet another reason why this won’t happen.

The takeaway from this incident is that French diplomacy is changing even more rapidly than the Valdai Club assessed, with the publication of its latest research into this subject being very timely since it helps observers better understand why this happened. France’s shift from a national to a global approach towards diplomatic training began before President Emmanuel Macron entered office seven years ago, but it accelerated under him to the point where its diplomacy is nowadays becoming unrecognizable.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/france-k ... an-for-its
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blindpig
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Fri Apr 05, 2024 2:20 pm

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Belgrade during NATO bombing of Yugoslavia | GNU Affero General Public License

Nato’s insatiable expansionism: The bombing of Yugoslavia 25 years on
Originally published: Counterfire on March 31, 2024 by Dragan Plavšić (more by Counterfire) | (Posted Apr 03, 2024)

Last weekend marked the 25th anniversary of NATO’s 78-day bombing of Yugoslavia (then made up of what are today the separate states of Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo). Led by the U.S. and UK and supported by NATO members, especially France, Germany and Turkey, the war was never authorised by the UN Security Council, making it as illegal as Russia’s war on Ukraine today.

Nevertheless, there were those in 1999 who brushed the issue of illegality aside in favour of what they said was the greater moral purpose. The bombing, they argued, was an act of selfless humanitarian intervention undertaken to defend the Kosovo Albanians from Serbian state oppression. Essential for the peace and security of the Balkans and Europe, they claimed the war was a new beginning, a definitive break with the cynical old ways of state realpolitik, for NATO’s actions were now guided by the principles of an ‘ethical’ foreign policy.

Then there were those of us in 1999—the anti-war left inside and outside parliament—who saw things altogether differently. We argued that the bombing was part and parcel of the broader geopolitics of U.S.-led NATO expansion towards Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact (its version of NATO). In fact, three former Warsaw Pact countries—the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland—joined NATO in the very month bombing began. The war was a ruthless act of imperialist opportunism waged to stamp NATO’s authority on Eastern Europe. It would lead to more wars, we said.

Who had the better of these arguments should now be clear to any reasonable observer of subsequent events. NATO’s defeat of Serbia in 1999 was won by overwhelming air power, especially U.S. and UK air power, with Washington and London emboldened by what they imagined their military prowess might achieve elsewhere. As triumphalism gave way to hubris, they launched their devastating wars on Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003.

From Serbia to Ukraine
But the straightest line that can be drawn is the one between the bombing of Yugoslavia and the most destructive war in Europe since 1939-45, the war in Ukraine. What links them is NATO’s insatiable expansionism. Having absorbed most of the rest of Eastern Europe into membership after 1999, Ukraine promises to be its biggest and most important prize of all.

Speaking in 1995, President Clinton’s one-time Secretary of State, Warren Christopher, drew attention to Ukraine’s significance in these Orwellian terms: ‘… some states of the former Soviet Union command particular attention because of their potential to influence the future of the region. Ukraine is critical. With its size and its position, juxtaposed between Russia and Central Europe, it is a linchpin of European security.’ But what Christopher saw as a linchpin of European security, Russia saw as a linchpin of Russian security, with the stage increasingly set for a clash of imperialisms.

In February 2008, the U.S. ambassador to Moscow, William Burns, cabled Washington that ’NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine, remains “an emotional and neuralgic” issue for Russia’. Moscow, he wrote, was ‘particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene.’

Nevertheless, in April 2008, at its Bucharest conference, NATO officially ‘welcome[d] Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.’ The bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 was therefore a prelude to the civil war that broke out in Ukraine in 2014 and Russia’s brutal invasion of 2022. The remorseless logic of NATO expansionism ties these wars together.

This is why a terrible war a quarter of a century ago between imperialism and a small Balkan state, lasting 78 days, is now a cataclysmic proxy war between two imperialisms lasting over two years. It’s why a war that killed hundreds or thousands (estimates vary) is now a war killing hundreds of thousands. And it’s why a dangerous war 25 years ago is now a war bristling with catastrophic potential, including nuclear escalation, not seen since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. The latest threat is to send in NATO ground troops. Meanwhile, the head of the British army talks of war with Russia and the need for conscription.

The bombing of Yugoslavia was the start of a long and bloody road now playing itself out in the Ukraine war. Nothing can be achieved by continuing to wage it, except needless loss of life and the threat of a still more devastating conflict. An immediate ceasefire in Ukraine is as essential as an end to NATO expansion.

https://mronline.org/2024/04/03/natos-i ... ansionism/

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Is Justice Finally Catching Up with Ursula von der Leyen?
Posted on April 5, 2024 by Nick Corbishley

Prosecutors “could theoretically seize phones and other relevant material from Commission offices or in other European countries,” as they expand their criminal probe into the Pfizergate scandal.

As we warned in October last year, the walls may finally be closing in on EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen even as the EU begins to mobilise its mass censorship regime for the upcoming EU elections. There was always a risk that von der Leyen’s candidacy for reelection would be over-shadowed by the multiple lawsuits she faces over the “Pfizergate” scandal. This may already be happening.

On Monday (April 1), Politico reported that EU prosecutors had taken over a Belgian criminal probe into alleged wrong-doing in connection with vaccine negotiations between von der Leyen and the CEO of Pfizer, Albert Bourla. That probe centres around alleged text messages between von der Leyen and Albert Bourla during preliminary negotiations for the EU’s biggest vaccine deal that VdL has refused to disclose. As the article notes, the latest development comes at a “delicate moment for the EU’s chief, as she navigates the transition to what Brussels observers expect will be a second term at the head of the Berlaymont.”


Breaking the Silence

With the exception of Politico, the story has been studiously ignored by the English-language legacy media. This should come as little surprise: as I reported in June 2023, the EU’s COVID-19 vaccine procurement scandal has steadily grown despite deafening silence from the mainstream media. But the news has been covered by European outlets, including Germany’s Berliner Zeitung and Focus magazine; Valeurs Actuelles and Atlantico in France, and La Repubblica, Il Sole 24 Ore, and Il Fatto Quotidiano in Italy. Let’s begin with the Politico article:

Investigators from the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) have in recent months taken over from Belgian prosecutors investigating von der Leyen over “interference in public functions, destruction of SMS, corruption and conflict of interest,” according to legal documents seen by POLITICO and a spokesperson from the Liège prosecutor’s office. While EPPO’s prosecutors are investigating alleged criminal offenses, no one has yet been charged in connection with the case.

The probe was originally opened by Belgian judicial authorities in the city of Liège in early 2023 after a criminal complaint lodged by local lobbyist Frédéric Baldan. He was later joined by the Hungarian and Polish governments — although the latter is in the process of withdrawing its complaint after the election win by a pro-EU government led by Donald Tusk, a Polish government spokesperson told POLITICO.

What the Politico article fails to mention is that Donald Tusk is a close ally of von der Leyen’s as well as a former president of the European Council (2014-19). Both Tusk and von der Leyen are members of the same centre-right European People’s Party. Since returning to power in December, the VdL Commission has begun unblocking up to €137 billion in EU funds for Poland that had been frozen amid a standoff with Poland’s previous “Law and Order” government. In other words, Tusk’s offer to withdraw Poland’s complaint is no surprise. In short order, Poland will presumably be receiving a new consignment of millions of unwanted vaccines.

The criminal complaint lodged by Baldan in April 2023 accuses von der Leyen of “interference in public functions”, “destruction of public documents” and “illegal conflicts of interests and corruption.” The 35-year old Belgian lobbyist argues that the Belgian state suffered financially as a result of the EU Commission’s €35 billion deal with Pfizer-BioNTech to buy up to 1.8 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines. Unsurprisingly, that turned out to be way more than the EU countries needed and many doses had to be destroyed or donated. According to Baldan, VdL’s actions also “constitute an attack on public morality, on the legitimate confidence of European citizens, on good administration and on transparency.”

Pfizer-BioNTech vs Hungary and Poland

Hungary and Poland joined Baldan’s complaint after Pfizer and its German vaccine partner, BioNtech, announced they were suing both countries over their refusal to take delivery of millions more doses of their COVID-19 vaccines, many of which would end up getting destroyed months later. There have already been at least €4 billion worth of wasted vaccine doses in the EU. The Commission’s vaccine contract with Pfizer has since been renegotiated, but Hungary’s Orbán government and the former Law and Order government of Poland still refused to take delivery of more vaccines.

As we noted at the time, Pfizer and BioNtech’s subsequent lawsuits were particularly egregious even by the normal standards of investor-state dispute settlements (ISDS):

Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccines are in much lower demand in Europe, as just about everywhere else, for a good reason: they have proven to be not nearly as safe nor as effective as their manufacturers had originally claimed… What’s more, the EU’s purchases of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines are themselves the subject of a criminal investigation. That’s right: Pfizer and BioNTech are trying to force payment through the Belgian court system of a contract that is itself being investigated by the Luxembourg-based European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) [as well as public prosecutors in Liège, Belgium]. Meanwhile, BioNtech is facing a rash of lawsuits in its native Germany for suspected injuries and adverse events caused by its COVID-19 vaccine while Pfizer is facing a trial in Texas for misrepresenting the efficacy of its vaccine.

The EPPO was founded in 2017 to conduct “pan-European investigations into crimes against the EU budget,” including fraud, corruption, money laundering and VAT fraud. As the Politico piece notes, the prosecutors “could theoretically seize phones and other relevant material from Commission offices or in other European countries such as Von der Leyen’s native Germany,” which would certainly not be a good look for the VdL’s reelection campaign. Some are calling for her removal.

“Mrs. von der Leyen’s disregard for the rule of law and transparency obligations at the top of the EU Commission makes her unsustainable for another term in office,” said Fabio De Masi, a former lawmaker for Germany’s socialist Left Party who sat on a parliamentary inquiry into the Wirecard affair and is now running as an EU candidate for Germany’s populist-left party, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht.

It remains to be seen whether further Pfizergate revelations will emerge over the next two months, and whether they will be enough to scupper Von der Leyen’s reelection prospects.

Besides Baldan and the governments of Poland and Hungary, VdL’s behaviour has also been denounced by the European Ombudsman, Emily O’Reilly, and the European Court of Auditors. In 2022, O’Reilly concluded that the Commission’s refusal to properly consider FOI requests for the text messages constitutes “maladministration.” The NYT, which first revealed that the covert communications had taken place as Bourla and Von der Leyen hashed out the terms of the deal, has also launched a parallel lawsuit against the Commission after it refused to disclose the content of the messages following an FOI request.

As if that were not enough, a report by the EU’s Court of Auditors found that VdL had directly participated in preliminary negotiations for the vaccine contract, in a total departure from the EU’s standard negotiating procedures. The Commission refused to provide the auditors with records of the discussions with Pfizer, either in the form of minutes, names of experts consulted, agreed terms, or other evidence. This was enough to trigger a formal investigation into the Commission’s acquisition of COVID-19 vaccines by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office.

Now, the EPPO appears to be intensifying that investigation, though there are still more questions than answers. What will happen to the charges being pursued in the Belgian investigation that do not fall within the EPPO’s remit, such as interference in public functions and destruction of evidence? Also, how long it will take for the prosecutors to present charges (assuming they ever will)? The EPPO has already been investigating the EU’s vaccine purchases for well over a year, yet no one has been charged in connection with the case.

Also worth noting: the Politico article does not include any official response or comments from the EPPO. Nor is there any mention of this latest development on the EPPO’s official website, which makes one wonder just how serious it is about pursuing the case.

Failing Upwards

This is not the first time that VdL has faced a criminal investigation for alleged deliberate destruction of evidence. In late 2019, just after VdL had resigned as German Defence Minister Tobias Lindner, a member of the opposition Green party, filed a complaint over suspected deliberate destruction of evidence requested by a German parliamentary committee investigating lucrative contracts her defense ministry had awarded to outside consultants without proper oversight. Just as in Pfizergate, VdL was accused of deleting all of her mobile communications, not on one phone but two.

But by that time, VdL had already relocated to Brussels after being hand-picked by Merkel and Macron for the role of European Commission president. Despite facing no challengers for the job, VdL clinched the presidency with a wafer-thin margin of just nine votes.

This time round, she will be facing slightly more competition albeit from a relatively unknown European Commissioner called Nicholas Schmit. According to most media reports, VdL is still expected to win despite all the baggage as well as the anaemic levels of public support for her Commission. A recent poll by Ipsos for Euronews revealed that most voters (63%) either view the Commission’s work negatively or have no opinion, “suggesting the EU executive is not cutting through to most Europeans.”

Is this any surprise given the defining characteristics of the Von der Leyen era include economic decline and naked corruption; creeping digital censorship, surveillance and control; escalating war with Russia and and unabashed support for Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza? The fact that she’s still hotly tipped to hold onto the top job at the EU’s increasingly powerful executive arm despite all of this speaks volumes about the state of political leadership in the EU today.

Lastly, one must not discount VdL’s rare talent for failing upwards. The last time she faced a criminal investigation, she was promoted to EU Commission President. As such, even if she does lose her current job or is prevented from being reappointed for a second term, she will probably land a new one that is at least as good, if not better — such as, say, NATO chief. She has already amply shown she has a taste for war and is blissfully beholden to US interests.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04 ... leyen.html

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Would NATO Really Hang France Out To Dry If Russia Pulverized Its Forces In Ukraine?

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ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 05, 2024

Even if Macron has too much pride to request assistance, the bloc as a whole could still rally behind France anyhow, or a “coalition of the willing” could assemble in support of Paris.

The Wall Street Journal cited an unnamed US official on Wednesday to report that “Macron told allies that there would be no need to involve NATO or the U.S. if Russia targeted French troops” that might conventionally deploy to Ukraine in the coming future per his infamous proposal from late February. While he might have indeed said that, it can’t be taken for granted that the bloc or its American leader would stand aside and let Russia pulverize their partner’s forces in that former Soviet Republic.

It would reflect very poorly on them for one of NATO’s largest members to be defeated by their traditional adversary on a neighboring nation’s soil. Even though a French official claimed that Macron only had training missions, operating defensive systems, and cyberwarfare in mind when he tabled his proposal, Russia already promised to target any of its troops there. The precedent established by Russia killing dozens of French mercenaries in a missile strike in late January suggests that it isn’t bluffing either.

This analysis here argues that France’s military-strategic goal in the scenario of a conventional intervention would be to seize control of the Black Sea Coast up until the Dnieper, which could lead to the creation of a French-Russian front along that river which runs through the divided Kherson Region. Despite Macron reportedly claiming that he wouldn’t request allied assistance if his troops are targeted by Russia, it’s extremely unlikely that he’d decline doing so if they prevent him from achieving this goal.

Chairman of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev recently said in an interview that “The United States and NATO nurture plans to keep Ukraine or at least part of it as anti-Russian territory wholly controlled by them [and] focused on serving the interests of the North Atlantic bloc.” In the event that Russia breaks through the front lines and forces the demilitarization of Kiev-controlled left-bank (eastern) Ukraine, then NATO as a whole would likely throw their full support behind this French mission.

There’d be too much pressure upon the bloc from its anti-Russian political elites to not do anything to stop the possibility of their traditional adversary crossing the Dnieper and cutting off Ukraine’s access to the sea by making a major military move on Odessa. French forces in Romania might try to preempt that from happening either before the abovementioned breakthrough occurs or right afterwards. If Russian missile strikes obstruct their progress, however, then NATO would likely saber-rattle in solidarity.

Even if Macron has too much pride to request assistance, the bloc as a whole could still rally behind France anyhow, or a “coalition of the willing” could assemble in support of Paris. The fact of the matter is that his reported reassurance that the scenario of French-Russian clashes in Ukraine wouldn’t risk World War III shouldn’t be taken seriously since the military-strategic dynamics could become uncontrollable if his forces get pulverized and the bloc tries to “save face” by escalating in response.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/would-na ... france-out

In the near term NATO simply doesn't have the wherewithal to fight aroused Russia on a conventional basis. Their armies surely know this and would be a serious check on such madness. Not for Ukraine.

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The European Union’s fires where freedom burns

Hugo Dionísio

April 4, 2024

Faced with the more-than-announced collapse of the Kiev regime and everything it stands for; the EU is facing a challenge to survive.

The European Union shows all the symptoms of a structure in deep crisis. Like other organizations in the past, the more it tries to convey an image of internal cohesion, the greater the fissures it creates, based on the increasingly rigid demand for compliance with the rules that this appearance of cohesion requires.

In order to assert its political power, Brussels is presented as a power that is as distant as it is unattainable, so superior that everything it has is unquestionable. Placing itself on such a pedestal, Brussels arrogates to itself a presumed wisdom and omniscience, relying on a very well-constructed communication process, based on the idea of a power above all others, above the elected powers, above the “people’s governments”: “The EU said that…”; “the EU says you can’t…”; “the government asked the EU to…”; “the EU warned that…”; “the government was forced by the EU to…”. One gets all this, without question, criticism or reflection. A sort of European extension of the “one indispensable nation” theory.

If, until a certain point, we were faced with a power that was self-imposed, self-sufficient, whose unattainability was enough to discourage any contradictory idea, given the monumentality of the task that consisted of facing not one government, but “the government of all governments”; today, Brussels is no longer content with this ontological superiority and demands an unequivocal proof of loyalty.

This means that adhering or not to the “narrative” presented by the European bureaucracy has long since ceased to be a voluntary act. Loyalty is now demonstrated by the vigor and rigor with which the EU’s ideology is internalized — in my opinion, it is more like an idolatry. There was a moment that acted as a signal for the activation of mechanisms to conform opinions to the “narrative” emanating from the Union. That moment was 25/02/2022. Even with Covid, although there was already an iron grip on the circulation of information that questioned the vaccines, methods and policies being developed, in Europe we have not seen the current use of direct coercive means to silence, condition or hold accountable those who did not adhere to the “narrative”.

But in the last two years, just like in past and more inquisitorial times, proof of loyalty has been demanded, in the form of adherence to a discourse, a narrative, an idolatry. And the very truth is that powers of this kind, throughout history, have always chosen the “disinformation” and “propaganda” of their enemies as the original seed of conditioning!

It was therefore at the sound of the thunder of war that we began to see the arrival of the EU’s “state of war” and the need to prove loyalty. They didn’t report it, question it or analyze it. As with everything that characterizes European power these days, we only see the facts, their inexorable existence. The discourse, on the other hand, continues to be as luminous as ever, or perhaps even more so.

We know this, for example, when we use a generative text Artificial Intelligence tool and ask it about “journalists persecuted in the European Union as part of the conflict in Ukraine”. The answer is invariably the same: “brave journalists that are persecuted” you find them only in Russia, my friends. However, when we ask about the names of journalists like Alina Lipp, Graham Phillips or Pablo Gonzalez, we discover that, in fact, there are journalists: accused of espionage and preventively detained (Pablo Gonzalez in Poland for more than a year and a half); accused and subjected to a prison sentence of up to 3 years for the opinion crime of “supporting the Russian invasion” (Alina Lipp from Germany); and, accused of acts of propaganda and “glorification” of “Russian invasion and its atrocities” (Graham Philips from the UK), coming to the point of being accused, by some politicians, of having “committed war crimes”, just because having interviewed Aiden Aslin, a British mercenary imprisoned in Mariupol and therefore targeted with his name inclusion on a personal sanctions list, that prevents him from re-entering his country of origin.

These were some of the first cases — never admitted — of not providing proof of loyalty. As if to set an example, a handful of journalists have experienced the weight with which Ursula von der Leyen’s hand treats disloyalty to her narrative. Even when she talks about washing machine chips that equip missiles and economies in pieces that are actually growing more than the EU’s, you need to fulfill the loyalty requirement.

As a result, as with all powers that no longer have enough of themselves, somewhere along the line, the net has become even tighter, and it is no longer just journalists and media outlets (such as Russian TV’s, independent websites and news outlets) that are caught in the nets of the European ministry of truth. The idolatry police have been launched on the attack and are sniffing under every stone for the slightest sign of dissent.

Recently, the Czech authorities decided to put an entity with the virtual profile of “Voice of Europe” and its two managers on the sanctions list, accusing them of wanting to “undermine the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine” because, in their view, they glorify the “Russian invasion of Ukraine”. We have all learned that, in the EU of our time, we can idolize Nazis, neo-Nazis and even spread fake news. It’s when our speech coincides with that of any Russian, no matter how insignificant, that we turn to be the targets of von der Leyen’s wrath. As I said, it’s not a question of “whether or not it’s true”; it’s a question of loyalty or betrayal.

This intransigence towards speeches, even when they are proclaimed by people with no media exposure, only limited virtual exposure, is in itself symptomatic of the fact that the level of tolerance towards diverse, critical or controversial thinking is at an all-time high. Such discursive — and behavioral — fundamentalism is in line with what we then see in the real world, and mostly in the epicenter of European idolatry: Brussels.

It is in Brussels that we find the symbolic center to which we must be loyal. The “Ukrainian project”, for the idolaters of european central power — and their followers — which is based on the bodies that make up the European Union, has a founding dimension, having become the ultimate symbol of the regime; a regime that no longer asserts itself by what it is, but by what it defends as the ultimate symbol of Russian antagonism: support for the Kiev regime. The more rigid, uncompromising and demanding you are in your support for Kiev, the more anti-Russian you became. And that’s the ultimate proof of loyalty. Is that a reason to say that this EU is no longer the same. Or is it, now, what it should be from the very start?

Presented as a peace project, but which ended up financing the war, even the most absent-minded passer-by in Brussels won’t miss the regime’s ultimate symbol. Since February 25, 2022, Brussels has been a city bathed in blue and yellow. From billboards to public works fences, everything seems to denounce the single truth to which we must be loyal. Zelensky’s Ukraine is indeed a member state of the EU! The legitimacy that it lacks in formal law, it has in the manifestation of symbolic paraphernalia and in the persecutory frenzy with which the European institutions embrace its protection.

By dispensing with the usual access procedures, which only aim to give some formal legitimacy to a whole phenomenon (Ukraine on the “fast track” to the EU) that is observable in fact, Ukraine benefits from a whole altar that is the ultimate symbol of this idolatrous fundamentalism and this de facto adoption.

Nothing is more overwhelming than a trip to the central square of “Luxembourg”, where the European Parliament is located, under the watchful eye of a vigilant European Commission and a European Council commanded by far more distant powers. Yellow and blue are so intensely prominent here that we seem to be both in the sky and close to the sun. They say they are the colors of the EU… Their presence has never been as strong as it is today. Ukraine and the EU are also intertwined in color.

Zelensky’s image stands out from this sea of colors, flooded with messages like “stand with Ukraine” or billboards saying “the brave people of Ukraine, represented by their president (…)”. As if to prove that what is outside, emanates from within, the Ukrainian state, without other democratic backing than that generated by the immense propaganda that floods our senses, even has its space in the very hemicycle of the European Parliament. In addition to all the simultaneous translation booths for each of the languages that make up the European project, the “Ukrainian project” also has its own. Even if it has no MEP’s.

Even the 50 billion euros recently approved by the European Council for the remaining 4 years of the Multiannual Financial Framework (which normally runs until one year after the nominal period, which is 21-27), taken from the respective financial cake, seems to reproduce, more or less, what a country with 35 to 40 million inhabitants and a per capita income below the European average would receive. In other words, not even the funds are lacking for the development of the goals of the 2030 strategy. Now, tell me Ukraine isn’t a member state?

We could also take, as an example, the war that the EU bought with Hungarian, Bulgarian, Romanian, Polish and Slovak farmers, because it floods European markets with products produced without complying with the same rules to which others are subject. Because of this, those countries are forced to revive the same feeling of diminishment that any peripheral European country has, when it has to confront itself with the interests of more powerful countries, such as Germany or France. Today, even these two submit to the dictates of the Bandera’s trident.

If, throughout the European Union, in all the member states, we come across the regime’s propaganda, reminding us at every turn that everything we are and everything we have is due solely to the “divine” (or diabolical) presence of the “humane, inclusive, democratic and free EU”, it is in the capital city and its nervous center that this propaganda is most overwhelming. Like a power that spreads from the center to the periphery.

Faced with the more-than-announced collapse of the Kiev regime and everything it stands for; the EU is facing a challenge to survive. Because idolatries have these things: they lack substance. No matter how hard they try to make the “Ukrainian member state” adhere to the idea that it is a bastion of “European values”, everything falls apart when it is in Bandera’s Ukraine that the rights that the EU claims to represent are most denied. In turn, it was Russia (in the USSR) that did the most to defend those values. The only way for this not to be a complete misunderstanding is if we assume, as a premise, that, after all, this EU does not disown Nazi-fascism and, on the contrary, hates Russia for defeating the one it was created to defeat her.

In fact, admitting the Nazi or neo-Nazi idolatry that today forms the backbone of Ukrainian political power, but not admitting the idolatry of the Russian operation, the EU is telling us something terribly devastating: Western elites consider what they call Russia’s “invasion” of Ukraine to be more serious than the Nazi-fascist invasion of Ukraine, Russia, the USSR, France, Poland and so on. The facts leave no doubt: you persecute those who accuse you of “supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine”, but you support those who idolize the forces that invaded and destroyed the whole of Europe. Which brings me back to the ever-controversial question: is the EU anti-Nazi or not?

This is not about judging the EU for condemning the Russian operation in Ukraine, it is about questioning why it persecutes those who say they support this operation and does not persecute, with a much greater argumentation force, those who idolize powers that have destroyed the whole of Europe.

This issue wouldn’t be so important if Ukraine wasn’t a member state. Now, when it is, in fact, the most important of all and around which the entire life of the Union revolves, none of them fills our news, political speeches and opinion columns like this one… To the point where the EU tries to reproduce, in its behavior, the most damaging practices that the Kiev regime forces on its own citizens… Here too, adherence to the narrative, the language, the idolatry of Bandera, the idolatry of the EU, NATO and the U.S., is not a choice, it is a proof of loyalty. Those who don’t practice it end up tied to posts, wrapped in cellophane. Al least, we haven’t reached that point here yet… But in my case, I take Martin Niemöller’s poem very seriously — “first they took the communists…”.

Just as covertly as it was used to integrate a member state that didn’t belong to it into the Union, handing it, as Emmanuel Todd says, the scepter of a power that belonged to the Franco-German axis, not because it contributes more to the Community budget than everyone else, but, on the contrary, because it needs to become the one that receives the most contributions, the EU is also launching a sneaky witch-hunt, further intensifying and generalizing the proofs of loyalty that it already demanded. Once again, never assuming that it is doing so. Another characteristic that sticks so well with Kiev. “It wasn’t Kiev that bombed Energodar NPP”; “It wasn’t Kiev that bombed the streets of Donetsk full of civilians”; “It wasn’t Kiev that bombed a detention center with its own soldiers as prisoners of war”…

Consequently, it was the Belgian Prime Minister himself who, in a statement to the New York Times, accused parliamentarians from France, Germany, the Netherlands and others of being paid to pursue Russian interests in the European Parliament. Without specifying who all those accused are, but pointing to the same “extreme right” that is proliferating thanks to the damage that the power of Brussels is inflicting on our living conditions, we are once again confronted with the contradictions of this European Union. And this is how we identify the proof of loyalty that is now demanded from all citizens. If only under penalty of censorship on social media.

So, what serious things did the accused say or do? Well, the NYT says so itself: they said things like “The sleepwalkers in Berlin and Brussels are leading us into a foreign war — without rhyme, reason or purpose” or “Whoever accepts Ukraine into NATO is provoking, whether we like it or not — I don’t like it either — the Russian attack. And now ask yourself if you are prepared to accept war for Ukraine’s membership of NATO.” And what else did they do? They opposed the classification of Russia as a “state sponsor of terrorism”.

This is how the EU, the West and the mainstream media put things. They spare no effort to impose, in practice, the idea that Ukraine is a member state, which it isn’t; to give Ukraine and the Kiev regime political weight, which it clearly doesn’t have; to incriminate for the crime of spreading Russian disinformation, when what was said had to do with a state — Ukraine — which supposedly isn’t even a member of the Union; persecute journalists for presenting facts that contradict those presented by the Kiev regime, which is supposedly not a member of the EU; close down virtual profiles for exposing facts that dispute the information provided by a country, which virtually — and only virtually — is not a member of the EU. Do you see the contradiction?

Thus, the emptier of meaning, substance and theoretical depth, the more dangerous idolatries become, almost as if the idolaters knew that the maintenance of their idolatry does not depend on its consistency, but on the force with which it is imposed.

In this case, the force with which it is imposed tells us that, if the witch-hunt has begun, it won’t be long before the fires start to crackle!

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... dom-burns/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Sun Apr 07, 2024 2:17 pm

Social Democrat Peter Pellegrini Wins Elections in Slovakia

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With 96,05 % counted, it is now clear that Peter Pellegrini will be the next President of Slovakia. | Photo: @ElectsWorld

Published 6 April 2024 (17 hours 1 minutes ago)

Opinion polls indicated a close fight between Peter Pellegrini, current president of the parliament, and former Foreign Minister and diplomat Ivan Korcok.

The nearly 6,000 polling stations in Slovakia closed their doors this Saturday at 22:00 local time, after a day that began at 07:00 local time to elect the successor of liberal lawyer Zuzana Caputova at the head of the state.

With 92.89% of the votes counted, the Social Democrat Peter Pellegrini won the election with 55.02%, or 1,276.413 votes. On second place Ivan Korčok with the 44,97 % of the votes. Participation was 60%, 18 points more than in 2019.

Opinion polls indicated a close fight between Peter Pellegrini, current president of the parliament, and former Foreign Minister and diplomat Ivan Korcok. The office of President has a broadly representative role in Slovakia, which is a member of both the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).


Slovak presidents do not have many executive powers, but they can veto laws or challenge them before the constitutional court. They appoint judges of the constitutional court, who may become important in the political struggle over the fate of Prime Minister Robert Fico’s reforms, which would dramatically alleviate punishment for corruption.

Korcok surprisingly led the first round of voting on 23 March with a 5.5 percentage point advantage over Pellegrini. The contest reached a second round because no candidate managed to obtain an absolute majority of the votes cast.

At the moment, there are indications of a high turnout, which could be ten points higher than five years ago, when Caputova defeated the Social Democratic politician and European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič.



https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Soc ... -0009.html

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NATO 75 Years On… A War Machine Long Past Its Sell-By Date

April 5, 2024

NATO has been sold to the world as some kind of international security agency. How Orwellian can you get? Peace means war, security means chaos and threats, and rules-based order means domination and exploitation.

This week marks the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding in April 1949. The organization has become a global danger to peace and security and should have been disbanded more than 30 years ago when the Cold War supposedly ended. That the alliance was not disbanded attests that its real purpose was always to serve as a weapon for U.S.-led Western imperialism.

Barely four years after the end of World War Two – the greatest calamity in world history – and amid the ruins of a devastated Europe and Asia, Western imperialism was once again reinventing its nefarious internal forces.

Nearly 30 million citizens of the Soviet Union had died at the hands of Nazi Germany. And yet despite the horror and evil of war, the Western powers were busy reconfiguring their military forces to confront again the Soviet Union. With the defeat of the Nazi war machine largely by the Soviet Red Army, the Western imperialists innovated a new instrument in the form of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

The betrayal and treachery were not just to the Soviet people. All of humanity was once again subjected to the warmongering designs and necessities of a global elite under Western imperialism.

NATO’s declared purpose was to defend Europe from Soviet aggression. The same pretense exists today in the claim that the alliance is defending Ukraine from Russian belligerence.

The proof of NATO’s real function is demonstrated by the fact that the organization did not disband in 1991 when the Soviet Union was dissolved. Over the ensuing 33 years, the military bloc has doubled its membership to 31 nations. Russia has replaced the Soviet Union as the Western-designated security threat to Europe. But such rationale turns reality on its head. NATO has always existed as a tool of aggression for Western imperialism. Where Nazi Germany failed to do the job of conquering the Soviet Union, NATO tacitly took over the task, and when the Soviet Union disappeared, the new enemy of convenience became the Russian Federation.

Twenty-five years ago, the U.S.-led NATO axis engaged in a pivotal step change when it unilaterally bombed former Yugoslavia in an audacious aggression based on duplicity and lies (as usual). That illegal military intervention was the opening of a new phase of Western imperialism that blatantly snubbed international law and the United Nations Charter. In the same year, 1999, the NATO alliance began its rapid expansion by acquiring new members across Eastern Europe up to Russia’s borders.

Having smashed legal restraints against war, the United States and its NATO partners embarked on an orgy of aggression and militarism over the next three decades, invading and sabotaging countless countries and unleashing global problems of terrorism, displacement, poverty, and mass migration.

In 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a seminal speech at the Munich Security Conference in which he warned of the looming chaos and conflict from unbridled Western militarism.

The next year, in 2008, the NATO alliance declared that it would admit Ukraine and Georgia to its ranks. Neither of the former Soviet Republics has yet joined the bloc, but for Moscow, such a move has long been demarcated as an intolerable red line.

The expansion of NATO all the way to Russia’s doorstep is not some ad hoc innocent development. It is a deliberate plan of aggression to strategically defeat Russia for the conquest of its natural wealth by Western imperialism.

The proxy war in Ukraine that erupted in February 2022 has been decades in the making. Arguably, the aggression goes back not merely to the CIA-sponsored coup in Kiev in 2014, nor the Color Revolutions in Ukraine following 1991. The Western hostility against Russia was the genesis of the Second World War borne out of Western sponsorship of Nazi Germany to attack the Soviet Union. In the subsequent Cold War until today, NATO has been the instrument of aggression.

It is therefore not enough to contend that NATO should have disbanded when the Cold War ended. Of course, it should have because it should have been evident what its real purpose was. The more logical contention is that NATO should never have been formed in the first place because it was always a war-making organization serving U.S.-led Western imperialism. The organization is inherently for war-making. By definition, it has a terroristic purpose, to incite war, to justify war, and to never stop promoting war because Western imperialism can never co-exist with peaceful relations between nations.

NATO has been sold to the Western public and the rest of the world as some kind of international security agency. The same deception has been used by American militarism and all other Western imperialist adventures. How Orwellian can you get? Peace means war, security means chaos and threats, and rules-based order means domination and exploitation.

For a start, the NATO bloc was always in violation of the United Nations and the supposed primacy of the UN Security Council. In addition, the pretensions of NATO as a security enforcer have been patently absurd to anyone with critical faculties. Why those pretensions were not more widely seen and rejected as a brazen deception is due in large part to the massive propaganda system of Western news media selling illegal wars and aggression as some kind of noble purpose. Imagine believing that millions of people were annihilated in U.S.-led wars for democracy and freedom! That is not dystopian fantasy. It actually happened and continues to happen, from Korea to Vietnam, from former Yugoslavia to Iraq, from Ukraine to Gaza, and many more horrors besides.

However, the proxy war in Ukraine has crossed a fateful Rubicon. The world can finally see that the NATO axis is a glaring fraud that is endangering international peace with its relentless aggression and toxic lies. It’s not just about Russia. Any nation that decides to stand up to Western desired hegemony is liable to find itself in the crosshairs of a U.S.-led attack using NATO as a legal cover for an international coalition.

Western imperialism has been a dominant world force for at least 500 years in line with the dominance of Western capitalism. The lead hegemon has varied over time and the line of succession has engendered countless wars and bouts of destruction. The last Western hegemon is the United States. But its empire is collapsing along with its dysfunctional, debt-ridden economy. The NATO bloc has expanded to become an unwieldy, overstretched imperial machine that has been stopped in its tracks by Russia in Ukraine. Napoleon, the British, the Third Reich, and now the American-led Collective West.

That historic defeat of Western imperialism is at an epochal endpoint. American-led capitalism is bankrupt and irredeemable. That makes the NATO war machine a very dangerous unstable “multiplier” of American militarism. Will it risk a desperate final world war or will the abominable Western system be overhauled safely by the majority of people who abhor it?

NATO’s sell-by date is well and truly past. Russia put paid to that. It remains up to the people of the Western nations to salvage something more constructive and democratic from the smoking hulk.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... l-by-date/

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Exit requests
colonelcassad
April 5, 23:36

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For fixation.

1. Gagauzia announced that it would secede from Moldova if Moldova was absorbed by Romania. Gagauzia is not going to Romania.
2. Republika Srpska announced that it would secede from Bosnia if international pressure continued on it. They want to go home to Serbia.

But this is easier said than done.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9073987.html

Google Translator

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Europe’s New Fiscal Rules Harm Working People and Women, Boost Right-Wing Radicals
Posted on April 6, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. Due to the geopolitical situation being particularly fraught right now, important developments on the political economy are not getting as much attention as they warrant. One is expected-to-be-implemented new EU fiscal rules, which are expected to hit some of the biggest economies like France and Italy particularly hard. The result, among other things, will be further cuts to social programs. And despite the efforts among the EU elites to reverse the rise of the so-called populist or radical right, depending on your druthers, they have become seemingly the only advocates of working people by focusing on their deteriorating living standards. Yes, their policy proposals include things like limiting or barring immigration and abandoning climate change initiatives. But when the nominal leaders offer only hair-shirtery as an alternative, you can see why the right is getting more traction.

By Lynn Parramore, Senior Research Analyst, Institute for New Economic Thinking. Originally published at the Institute for New Economic Thinking website

ecently, the European Union (EU) finance ministers agreed to reform the bloc’s fiscal rules. The legislative package still has to be approved by both the European Council and the European Parliament by the end of April 2024. Amidst promises to stimulate public investment, foster growth, and create jobs, the new rules set minimum amounts of average deficit and debt reduction that EU countries will have to respect; otherwise, they may be sanctioned.

Misinformation proliferates around few topics as readily as national debts and deficits, often amplified by influential and respected media outlets. To sort out fact from fiction, INET is joined by Helene Schuberth, chief economist and head of the Economics Department of the Austrian Trade Unions Confederation (ÖGB) since May 2022. She previously headed the Foreign Research Division of the Central Bank of Austria and served as an economic adviser to the chancellor and the president of Austria.

Lynn Parramore: Why do we have fiscal rules in the first place?

Helene Schuberth: Why do we have them? Well, I think fiscal rules in general are very reasonable. In a monetary union, you always want to avoid a situation where countries are pursuing fiscal policies in which debt ratios become unsustainable. This incurs risks to price stability.

Fiscal rules were implemented in the Maastricht Treaty in 1991 (signed 1992), with an arbitrary 60% debt ratio and a 3% deficit ratio, as a precondition for entry into the European Monetary Union. They were successively tightened, first with the Stability and Growth Pact in 1997 and later, in 2012 with the fiscal compact. Following the austerity crisis in the eurozone, the rules were somehow relaxed, and during the pandemic and the energy crisis an escape clause allowed the member states to deal with the multiple crises. Now, for the first time since a decade ago, the rules will become restrictive again. From the beginning, they were subject to much criticism. Fiscal rules should be designed in an economically reasonable way and they should be simple. Otherwise, democratic accountability is impaired. Both principles are far from being fulfilled with the new fiscal rules.

Compared to the U.S. economy, the EU economy has emerged from the past crises severely weakened. In this situation, the EU risks another round of austerity, which is very problematic. The United States has made major public investments with initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act. There has been a massive industrial impetus to the economy. We desperately need public investment in the EU, but austerity measures put this at risk.

LP: Could you discuss how the restrictiveness of the new rules would be harmful in terms of the austerity risk?

HS: Strikingly, the large EU countries are the countries with the highest public debt ratios. Excluding Germany, which has its own fiscal straitjacket, high-debt countries like Italy, France, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, and Belgium face the biggest consolidation demands. For instance, Italy has to reduce its fiscal deficit by 1% of GDP per year. France has to consolidate nearly as much.

These large countries make up half of the EU’s GDP. This is important because if they all have to consolidate simultaneously, this will have a huge impact on economic growth. This risks another wave of austerity, a situation in which growth is declining, which in turn makes it even more difficult to achieve the debt ratio targets because the target is defined as public debt divided by GDP.

LP: Reuters published a summary of the new fiscal rules that included this statement: “The reform was necessary because the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy price crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in public debt that made the previous rules unrealistically tough.” What’s your take? Is this statement factual?

HS: I disagree on two grounds. The first issue is the narrative that the debt ratios increased after the pandemic and the energy crisis. It’s correct for the pandemic, but during the inflation crisis, the debt ratios have come down again. Between 2020 and 2023, the debt ratio declined by about 10 percentage points in the eurozone, and it has declined by more than 8 percentage points in the EU. Inflation has increased a lot and this has brought the debt ratio down. It’s a numerical issue.

My second point is with the statement about the restrictiveness of the previous rules. There is some truth to it, but whenever you criticize the new rules, the natural response is, well, they are softer. In reality, though, they are still too restrictive. My guess is that the new rules cannot be implemented easily and they will mean huge costs in terms of economic growth and in terms of the risk of dismantling the social protection system, the welfare state.

LP: Yet advocates insist that the reforms are all about promoting economic growth and jobs. Is there any truth at all to these claims?

HS: They are not correct. This is part of the technocratic narrative. We’re told that the new rules incentivize investments, which will mean jobs and growth – some of them are investments in the ecological transformation There are some incentives for public investment, but according to the rules, if you do public investment, like an increase in infrastructure or defense expenditures which are supposed to go up in the coming years, then you are obliged to strongly reduce public expenditures somewhere else. Alternatively, wealth tax revenues or windfall profit tax revenues could be increased, but this is politically not realistic.

The major fear of progressive economists and others concerned with civil society is that the new fiscal rules are really associated with a huge effort to dismantle the welfare system.

LP: Who gets hurt most by the new rules? Who stands to benefit?

HS: The working class will be hurt most, women in particular. They were bearing the brunt of the past austerity in the EU. This is well documented in several studies. Women are often the primary beneficiaries of many social expenditures.

As to who will gain, that’s very difficult to tell. The parts of the ruling political elite who advocate the strict rules aim precisely to dismantle the welfare state. There have been so many efforts in past decades to do that, with limited success. But right now we may be at a turning point. I always wonder why this topic hasn’t attracted more attention, because we’re already hearing messages to this effect. For instance, the finance minister of Germany said that because we have to increase military expenditures, a moratorium on social expenditures is warranted.

LP: In the big picture, what kind of political developments might we expect from the new fiscal rules? Which parties gain power?

HS: This is an important issue. Following the rise in inflation, Europe has grappled with a cost of living crisis, marked by soaring expenses in housing, energy, and food. This surge in living costs contributed significantly to the growing traction of radical right-wing parties. It’s a very, very tense situation right now in Europe. If you add the new rules, you limit the ability of countries to guarantee what people long for most: economic security. It’s like a straitjacket. This will be a boost for the extreme right-wing parties, as it has already been.

If I may add, the investment demands are staggering. It’s intriguing that while the European Commission outlines ambitious goals for socio-ecological and digital transformations, along with public investment needs, there’s a stark contrast in the significant constraints most countries face. Public investment needs alone, at the minimum around an estimated 1.6% annually, are crucial for ecological transformation, excluding other vital areas such as social needs like challenges from aging and care. The needs are great, but most of the countries will be severely restrained. This doesn’t make sense. You cannot achieve ambitious goals while restricting the countries from accomplishing them. You can’t increase the necessary public investments for the socio-ecological and digital transformations and simultaneously reduce debt, especially if you’re unwilling to increase wealth taxes.

LP: Why is taxing the wealthy off the table when discussing these issues? It’s curious that those who express concern about national debt and deficits are often the same individuals reluctant to entertain the idea. Often they want to cut taxes for the rich.

HS: I have a crystal clear view of this. The power of the media is very important, and the media are, to a large part, owned by the very wealthy. The social media are also playing a huge role. It’s very, very difficult.

20 years ago, I was fascinated by the concept of deliberative democracy, meaning that by finding the best arguments, you can achieve something in the political debate. But now I think the elite political class is completely decoupled from deliberative issues like arguments or economic research. I have colleagues in my country who are doing great work on wealth inequality, showing how easy it would be to introduce financial transaction taxes, wealth taxes, capital gains taxes, and inheritance taxes, but the elite class ignores their work.

Receiving a tax-free, non-performance-related income has already alarmed the historical advocates of economic liberalism. In a market-orientated open society, so the credo goes, privileges should only be claimed as a reward for personal contribution to this society – in contrast to aristocracy and feudalism, where privileges, status, and wealth are inherited. In this respect, the socio-political systems of many countries resemble a feudal social order in which one’s fate depends on the status of one’s parents. The very rich, the billionaires, are extremely influential because wealth goes along with increased political power and their power with regard to the media. That’s a major issue. I’ve experienced many devastating things, but one of the most shattering issues was the fact that the EU was not capable of introducing a financial transaction tax despite the fact that the financial sector has caused so much damage to our society. Even the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, and the European Commission were in favor of implementing this kind of tax. Yet it never happened.

Today, look at the windfall profits from the energy sector, from the banking sector, or from the food industry. We have an existential threat with regard to climate change, with regard to geopolitical issues. Even in the face of these enormous challenges, the super-rich are unwilling to contribute.

One argument as to why there is so much silence on these new fiscal rules is that the old ones were more restrictive than these. Okay, that’s partly true, but as I’ve said, they’re still overly restrictive. The second argument as to why there is silence is that some argue that the rules open the door for increasing wealth taxes: Given the enormous financing needs, without taxing the super-rich, it becomes impossible to implement fiscal rules effectively. If there are stringent fiscal rules in place, it’s necessary to ensure taxation from the affluent to uphold those rules – so it is said. But this is overly naïve. First comes the dismantling of the welfare state. The poorer households, the workers, and the women are affected most – these are the parts of society where the share of voting participation is lowest. The rich, they vote. The poorer individuals vote less.

LP: In a recent piece for INET, you outlined your concern that the new rules neglect democratic accountability.” Can you elaborate?

HS: I’m happy that you brought this question up because that’s one of the most critical aspects of the new fiscal rules. They obstruct democratic legitimacy for two reasons. First, they rely on a methodology by experts from the European Commission which is so opaque that it’s not even fully comprehensible for experts, let alone for policymakers. I mean, any rule should be transparent, right? But these rules are just overly complex and opaque.

Regarding the methodology, it’s important to note that the Economic Committee of the European Parliament in early March was deliberating on a framework without access to all aspects of the methodology, as it had not yet been published. Yet they voted on a framework anyway. Wow. I mean, that’s bizarre. Why didn’t any member of the European Parliament ask for the precise methodology before they made a decision? Now the methodology has been published and one absurdity catches the eye immediately: The new rules implicitly assume that they will be breached later and, in anticipating this, the consolidation path is tightened.

The second point is that the EU usually makes non-binding recommendations for the countries with regard to economic policy reforms, such as pension reforms. As I mentioned, with the new rules there are incentives to do public investment: if a country credibly assures that it invests, for example, in the transformation, it has to consolidate less, but a less stringent consolidation path has to be approved. The Commission may then press the countries to do structural reforms, such as deregulating the economy or dismantling the welfare state. This would be a dramatic shift from the usual practice where the Commission can only issue recommendations that are non-binding.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04 ... icals.html
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Wed Apr 10, 2024 2:10 pm

Occupied Nation: How the CIA Created Modern Germany
By Kit Klarenberg - April 9, 2024 0

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The sprawling U.S. embassy in Berlin. [Source: spiegel.de]

On February 4th, The Economist published a devastating analysis—or perhaps, “pre-mortem”—on the collapse of the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) under Olaf Scholz’s stewardship. Elected in what the Western media contemporaneously branded a “shock” result in September 2021, hopes for his coalition government in many quarters were high. Today, he enjoys the worst approval ratings of any Chancellor in modern history, and national opinion polls place SPD approval at 15% or lower.

The Economist frames Scholz’s collapsed fortunes, and the prospects of his party’s imminent extinction as a serious force within German politics, as a microcosm of Berlin’s declining economic and political clout more widely. It notes that the nation’s finances have gone “limp” during his tenure, with business-sector confidence collapsing, and record inflation destroying citizens’ incomes and savings. Other sources have detailed the country’s “deindustrialization,” Politico coining the nickname, “Rust Belt on the Rhine.”

In keeping with those meditations on Germany’s ever-worsening woes, The Economist’s bleak diagnosis made no mention of how Western sanctions imposed on Russia in February 2022 created Berlin’s crisis. Scholz was a prominent cheerleader for the Biden administration’s push to “make the Ruble rubble.” Now that effort has so spectacularly backfired that it can no longer be ignored or spun otherwise; Newsweek admits “any realistic war game could have easily predicted” the sanctions would not only fail, but boomerang on the sanctioners.

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Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag on January 31. [Source: bloomberg.com]

Those few analysts who predicted the invasion of Ukraine well in advance universally failed to anticipate Berlin would support and facilitate any U.S. counterattack, particularly in the financial sphere. They believed Germany possessed the requisite autonomy and sense not to commit willful economic suicide in service of Empire. After all, the country’s stability, prosperity and power were heavily dependent on cheap, readily accessible Russian energy. Voluntarily ending that supply would be inescapably disastrous.

For this failure, they can be forgiven. Berlin, particularly in the wake of reunification, has successfully presented itself to the world as sovereign, led by sensible people acting in the best interests of their nation, and Europe. In truth, ever since 1945, Germany has been a heavily occupied nation, drowning under the weight of U.S. military installations, and its politics, society and culture aggressively shaped and influenced by the CIA.

This unacknowledged reality is amply spelled out in Agency whistleblower Philip Agee’s 1978 tell-all book, Dirty Work: The CIA in Western Europe. Comprehending who is truly in charge in Berlin, and what interests Germany’s elected representatives are actually serving, is fundamental to understanding why Scholz, et al., so eagerly embraced the self-destructive sanctions. And why the facts of Nord Stream 2’s criminal destruction can never emerge.

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[Source: abebooks.co.uk]

“Enormous Presence”
Following World War II, the United States emerged as the world’s undisputed military and economic superpower. As Agee wrote, the overriding aim of U.S. foreign policy thereafter was to “guarantee the coherence of the Western world” under its exclusive leadership. CIA activities were accordingly “directed toward achieving this goal.” In service of the Empire’s global domination project, “left opposition movements had to be discredited and destroyed” everywhere.

After West Germany was forged from the respective occupation zones of Britain, France and the U.S., the fledgling country became a particularly “crucial area” in this regard, serving as “one of the most important operational areas for far-reaching CIA programs” in Europe and elsewhere. Domestic Agency operations in West Germany were explicitly concerned with ensuring the country was “pro-American,” and structured according to U.S. “commercial interests.”

In the process, the CIA covertly supported the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and SPD, and trade unions. The Agency “wanted the influence of the two major political parties to be strong enough to shut out and hold down any left opposition,” Agee explained. The SPD had a radical, Marxist tradition. It was the only party in the Reichstag to vote against the 1933 Enabling Act, which laid the foundations for Germany’s total Nazification, and led to its proscription.

Newly reinstituted following the war, the SPD maintained its revolutionary roots until 1959. Then, under the Godesberg Program, it abandoned any commitment to challenging capitalism in a serious way. It stretches credibility to suggest the CIA was not expressly responsible for neutering the party’s radical tendencies.

In any event, effective control of West German democracy ensured that Washington’s “enormous presence” there–which included hundreds of thousands of troops and almost 300 separate military and intelligence installations—was not challenged by those in power, irrespective of the party to which they belonged, despite a majority of the population consistently opposing U.S. military occupation.

Imageperations at the Agency’s direct behest, “often [to] protect CIA activities from any legal consequences.”

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[Source: g2mil.com]

“Discredit and Destroy”
Intimate bedfellows as they were, there were nonetheless “difficulties” in the CIA’s relationship with its West German counterparts, per Agee. The Agency never fully trusted their protégés, and felt a pronounced need to “keep an eye” on them. Still, this lack of faith was no barrier to the CIA partnering with the BND, West Germany’s foreign intelligence service, to secretly purchase Swiss encryption firm Crypto AG in 1970. Perhaps this was done to “protect CIA activities from any legal consequences.”

Crypto AG produced high-tech machines through which foreign governments could transmit sensitive high-level communications around the world, safe from prying eyes. Or so they thought. In reality, the clandestine owners of Crypto AG, and by extension the NSA and GCHQ, could easily decipher any messages sent via the firm’s devices, as they themselves crafted the encryption codes. The connivance operated in total secrecy for decades thereafter, only being exposed in February 2020.

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[Source: golem.de]

The full extent of the information collected via Crypto AG—along with key national competitor Omnisec AG, which the CIA also owned—and the nefarious purposes to which it was put is unknown. It would be entirely unsurprising though if the harvested data helped inform CIA operations to “discredit and destroy” left-wing opposition in West Germany and beyond, efforts that no doubt continue to this day.

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Gerhard Schindler, the president of Germany’s Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), the country’s foreign intelligence agency, at the former NSA base in Bad Aibling. The NSA largely abandoned the base in 2004, but an NSA team stayed behind and continued to work closely with BND agents who took over the site. [Source: spiegel.de]

The Cold War may be over, but Germany remains heavily occupied. It hosts the largest number of U.S. troops of any European country, despite an overwhelming majority of the population supporting their partial or total withdrawal in the years following the Berlin Wall’s collapse. In July 2020, then-President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of 12,000 soldiers of the 38,600-strong contingent still there.

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The training area at Grafenwöhr in Bavaria is one of the U.S. Army’s largest in Europe. [Source: dw.com]

While intended to punish Germany for greenlighting the now-destroyed Nord Stream 2, polls indicated most Germans were only too happy to say “auf wiedersehen.” In all, 47% were in favor of them leaving, while a quarter called for the permanent closure of all U.S. bases on their soil. Yet, just two weeks after entering the White House, Joe Biden reversed his predecessor’s policy, returning 500 soldiers who had departed.
[/img]
The President also scrapped plans to relocate the Stuttgart-based U.S. Africa Command, which effectively embeds Washington in the armed forces of 53 countries across the continent, elsewhere in Europe. Research shows the Command’s training programs have precipitated a significant rise in the number of military coups in Africa. As Agee attested, U.S. military bases are a hotbed of CIA spies. Berlin therefore must remain “one of the most important operational areas for far-reaching CIA programs” within and without the country, whether Germans like it or not.

https://covertactionmagazine.com/2024/0 ... n-germany/

******

EU to limit imports of Ukraine's products

By Earle Gale in London | China Daily Global | Updated: 2024-04-10 02:29

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This file photo taken on March 26 shows a farmer in a tractor and burning tires blocking a street during a demonstration on the occasion of an EU agriculture ministers meeting in Brussels. [Photo/Agencies]

The European Union will limit imports of duty-free farm produce from Ukraine in a move that is likely to please the bloc's farmers but disappoint Kyiv.

The announcement followed months of protests from farmers in the EU over what they see as cheap imports from Ukraine that undercut their selling prices.

But the EU had been reluctant to cap imports from Ukraine because it wanted to continue to show support for the country over the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

After a meeting on Monday that stretched into the night, the European Parliament issued a statement saying that "significant disruption to the EU market or the markets of one or more EU countries due to Ukrainian imports" opened the door to the European Commission taking "swift action" to "impose any measures it deems necessary".

Sandra Kalniete, the bloc's rapporteur for the accord, said it "fortifies safeguards to protect EU farmers in case of market turbulence sparked by Ukrainian imports".

The lawmaker from the center-right PPE grouping said "the ripple effects" from the Russia-Ukraine conflict were "being felt by EU farmers" and must be dealt with.

The French news agency Agence France-Presse said Belgium, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU, announced the deal, which calls for the duty-free access the bloc granted in 2022 to be capped for Ukraine's exports of eggs, honey, maize, poultry, sugar, and crushed grain to average volumes recorded between mid-2021 and the end of 2023. The bloc did not apply a cap to Ukraine's wheat exports.

AFP said lawmakers, especially those on the far right, wanted to placate the bloc's powerful farming lobby ahead of elections in June.

The proposed caps were approved by EU ambassadors on behalf of the 27 member nations on Monday and will be formally passed into law by the bloc's international trade committee.

Radio France Internationale said the caps will likely reduce the value of Ukraine's agricultural exports to the EU by around 240 million euros ($260 million) a year.

Reuters said the grouping of farmers' unions known as COPA-COGECA said in a statement it had wanted deeper cuts. But the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club said the caps went too far, telling the Politico website Ukraine's products were demanded by everyone in the EU except the bloc's farmers.

The EU Council said in a statement it hopes the deal strikes a balance that "reaffirms the EU's unwavering political and economic support for Ukraine" while reinforcing "the protection of sensitive agricultural products".

Andrzej Halicki, a lawmaker from Poland's center-right European People's Party, said the caps he proposed will correct "inequalities" in the balance of trade between Ukraine and the EU.

"My amendments are in the interest of Ukraine," Politico quoted him as saying.

http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/20240 ... c10bf.html
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Sat Apr 13, 2024 2:05 pm

NATO’s Reign of Terror: Yugoslavia to Russia
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on APRIL 12, 2024
Christopher Black

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I write this just after returning from Belgrade and the important international conference held there commemorating the 1999 War of Terror conducted by NATO forces against the people of the remaining republics of Yugoslavia, primarily Serbia, a conference organised by the Beograd Forum for A World of Equals and related organisations.

In the West, the NATO attack is referred to as the “Kosovo” war, since they want the memory of Yugoslavia and what it represented to the world to disappear forever. But it will not. We all know what happened there. I choose the phrase War of Terror for the NATO aggression against Yugoslavia because, in fact, that is what it became after the NATO forces failed to defeat the Yugoslav armed forces and, as a consequence, resorted to the use of a strategy of mass terrorism to force the people of Yugoslavia to submit to NATO’s will. The crimes committed by the NATO countries are well documented and include attacks on civilian infrastructure, on civilian trains, hospitals, media centres, energy infrastructure, industry, water supplies, bridges, administration centres and, finally, to force a surrender, the threat to carpet bomb Belgrade with B-52s and to kill 500,000 Serbs in the process.

Of course, these tactics are not new to war. We only need to look back at the Second World War to remember the terror attacks on civilian cities by the US and British forces against German cities, like Dresden, or the American fire bombings of Tokyo and the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, to know what they are capable of. We remember their total destruction of Korea, in which terrorising the civilian population was a key strategy used by the Americans and its allies. We remember the atrocities committed against civilians in Vietnam, the shock and awe of their attack on Iraq in 2003, their brutal invasion and occupation of Afghanistan, of Libya, the use of US controlled terror groups like Al-Qaeda*, then ISIS* in Syria and Iraq, the use of terror against the populations of El Salvador and Nicaragua in the 80s, the same methods employed against the Rwandan government in the 1990-1994 in Rwanda, and in Congo ever since. Likewise, we see it in Gaza as Israel, with the direct participation of the USA, UK, Canada, France, and Germany and other NATO countries, inflicts mass collective punishment on the Palestinian people amounting to genocide against them.

We saw terror used to overthrow the legitimate government of Ukraine in 2014, and the following attacks on civilians in eastern Ukraine who refused to accept the NATO-backed coup d’etat, attacks which continue to this day. And now we see them using terror in the attacks against Russia in Belgorod and Moscow. Can we be surprised that the Russian investigation of the Crocus massacre of young people, on March 22, strongly indicates that it was committed by the same actors responsible for all the previous terror attacks?

Commentators in the West have referred to these terror attacks as hybrid or asymmetrical warfare, as if these phrases justify or legitimise them. They do not. They are war crimes for which those responsible must be held accountable and will be held accountable. Serge Lavrov’s visit to China to meet with his counterpart Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of China, this week to discuss terrorism among other issues of cooperation indicates serious consequences will follow.

International law states these attacks are not only war crimes but can be considered genocide. The Rome Statute, for example, states

Article 6: Genocide

For the purpose of this Statute, “genocide” means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
The key phrase is “in whole or in part.” On that definition, the Belgorod and Crocus attacks are acts of genocide.

They are also crimes against humanity, as set out in Article 7 of the Statute,

Article 7: Crimes against humanity

For the purpose of this Statute, “crime against humanity” means any of the following acts when committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack:
Murder;
Extermination;
Other inhumane acts of a similar character intentionally causing great suffering, or serious injury to the body or to mental or physical health.
And they also constitute war crimes under Article 8,

Article 8: War crimes

For the purpose of this Statute, “war crimes” means (in part):

a) (i) Wilful killing;
(ii) Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;

(iii) Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;

(iv) Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;

(vi)Taking of hostages.


b) Other serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in international armed conflict, within the established framework of international law, namely, any of the following acts,
(i) Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;

(ii) Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;

(v) Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;
and,

e) Other serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in armed conflicts not of an international character, within the established framework of international law, namely, any of the following acts:
(i) Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;

Those responsible under international law for these crimes are not just the perpetrators but also those in command of them, all the way up the chain of command to the head of state of the forces or services involved. This principle of accountability for the highest levels of leadership was established by the Nuremberg Trials and has been accepted as a fundamental principle of international law since 1946. This principle was used by NATO in the show trials at the ICTY and ICTR, in the fabricated charges against President Milosevic, for instance. It is time it was used against the leaders of NATO, who were granted immunity from prosecution by the prosecutors of the Yugoslav and Rwanda tribunals and who are granted de facto immunity from prosecution by the International Criminal Court, which refuses to prosecute any of the Western nations for their crimes and so encourages them and becomes itself a party to those crimes by its inaction.

So, what to do? Russia has several options. It can choose a military response, and a legal response. It will likely combine the two. But insofar as a legal response, we can refer to the statement of the Russian Investigative Committee on April 9 concerning the Crocus attack that,

“Investigators have established that the funds that were received through commercial organizations, such as the oil and gas company Burisma Holdings operating in Ukraine, have been used in recent years to carry out terrorist acts in Russia and abroad with the aim of taking out prominent political and public figures and causing economic damage.”

“The investigation, in cooperation with other special services and financial intelligence, is checking the sources and further movement of funds in the amount of several million US dollars, and the involvement of specific persons employed by government agencies, nongovernmental and for-profit organizations in Western countries. In addition, through investigative and operational methods, links are being established between perpetrators of terrorist attacks and their foreign handlers, organizers and sponsors.”

Tass reported that, “Earlier, the Investigative Committee started assessing an appeal from lawmakers relating to the organization of terrorist attacks in Russia by the US and other Western countries. The agency said the investigation will thoroughly examine the submitted data. The Prosecutor General’s Office also noted that the agency will study the materials that were received from State Duma lawmakers that pertain to the organization and financing of some terrorist attacks in Russia, as well as the explosions at the Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream-2 underwater gas pipelines by persons and organizations located in the US, Germany, France and Cyprus. The agency said the materials will be carefully studied, which will be followed by considerations about whether mechanisms of international legal cooperation should be engaged.”

It is unclear which mechanisms of legal cooperation they are referring to. It cannot be the International Criminal Court, which is not a legitimate world court in any case and which Russia does not recognise as legitimate and which refuses to act. It cannot be the creation of another UN ad hoc tribunal since the US and its allies will veto any such move in the Security Council and, in any case, the UN Charter does not allow for the legitimate creation of such tribunals under Chapter VII of the Charter.

Can we look back at the historical example of the Nuremberg and Tokyo Tribunals as examples of international cooperation in holding leaders of nations responsible for their crimes? In those cases, the Tribunals were created after the defeat of Nazi Germany and Japan and the criminals were in the hands of the people they had committed crimes against, a situation unlikely to exist vis-à-vis the USA and its allies in any foreseeable future, unless a direct war breaks out, and they are somehow defeated, a war which will threaten us all. This is of course a possibility. But let us hope that another way can be found to bring those responsible before the people of the world and expose them for what they are.

Criminal prosecutions are being prepared in Russia under its Criminal Code. But to “engage mechanisms of international legal cooperation” must have a meaning, and it logically follows that the creation of an international tribunal is one way to achieve this objective. Perhaps the Russians have something else in mind. We know not.

However, the first task is to identify those responsible, to name them, to expose them, to produce the evidence of their crimes before the world. We can be sure that will be done, and very soon. The question then becomes how to punish those criminally responsible and to prevent them from committing further crimes.

Former President of Russia and Deputy Head of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, stated on April 6th that,

“It is obvious that Macron and some other Western leaders are the sponsors of this terrible terrorist attack. There is no forgiveness for this. There can be no immunity from this. And from now on, they are not just enemies of Russia.”

He is correct. Those responsible are not just the enemies of Russia. They are the enemies of mankind and are continuing to threaten to humanity. Just what exactly the Russians are going to do we shall have to wait and see. But we can be sure of one thing; the consequences will be dramatic and inexorable.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/04/ ... to-russia/

*******

Are there bounds to collective West’s cynicism?

Stephen Karganovic

April 11, 2024

The false narrative of “Srebrenica genocide” has been picked apart relentlessly over the last decade and a half, Stephen Karganovic writes.

There is a question that needs to be put to the leadership of Ecuador. The next time there is a coup in their country and, as deposed Latin American officials regularly do, they also take refuge in a foreign embassy, after the appalling precedent they foolishly established the other day how safe will they be from their pursuers? That is a matter they should be pondering gravely right now аs they contemplate the ruins of international law and the Vienna Convention following the ill-conceived incursion and abduction on foreign sovereign territory instigated on their orders in their own capital. But we do not intend to do their legal and intellectual work for them because this column is devoted to another topic.

In the United Nations General Assembly, a nasty resolution is being prepared to cement the narrative about the fabricated July 1995 genocide in Srebrenica. The resolution’s purpose is three-fold: to officially endorse the dubious findings of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, to condemn “Srebrenica genocide denial,” and to mandate that henceforth July 11 should be observed as the international Srebrenica genocide day, akin one supposes to Women’s Day on March 8.

The last such attempt to force Srebrenica down the international community’s throat was in 2015. It was sponsored unashamedly in the Security Council of the United Nations by the Perfidious Albion, the godfather of all genocides this side of antiquity, stretching from North America to India and with everywhere in between, not forgetting the unhappy Emerald Isle of Ireland, of course. That slimy attempt to tar an entire nation, the Serbs in this particular case, by sullying them collectively with the most heinous crime known in international law failed only because it was vetoed by Russia. The authors of the pending resolution assume that the clever change of venue to the General Assembly, where there are no inconvenient procedural obstacles to their machinations, should do the trick, thus avoiding a repetition of the 2015 failure. They hope that cajoling the usual assortment of obscure Pacific island statelets and subservient “allies” drawn from the four corners of the Earth should suffice to produce a respectable General Assembly vote in support of their Srebrenica resolution. It matters not to them that most of those strong-armed and blackmailed governments have no stake whatsoever in this matter and that their public for the most part have not even heard of Srebrenica.

The fact that such a resolution will have been sponsored by Germany and Rwanda, though of course it was conceived and written not by them but by their controllers, encapsulates the perfidy. Germany embodies genocide running into millions, and not just in Europe but in Southwest Africa as well. Rwanda, an obedient African protectorate of the collective West, exemplifies racially motivated mass killing on a ghastly scale in the 1990s, covertly managed by Western special services but brilliantly deconstructed and exposed by Prof. Edward Herman and David Peterson. The fact that these two governments tainted by genocide were tasked in the UN by their hegemonic masters to table a resolution on the subject of genocide, to morally compromise a nation that historically has itself been a victim a genocide, speaks volumes about the cynicism of this sick project’s degenerate authors.



The false narrative of “Srebrenica genocide” has been picked apart relentlessly over the last decade and a half, knocking out every one of its propaganda props. As Dr. Efraim Zuroff, director of the Simon Wiesenthal Centre in Jerusalem, said a few days ago “according to the original definition of genocide, which holds that it is an attempt to destroy an entire ethnic group, the crime committed in Srebrenica cannot be an act of genocide. Serbian forces let go all women and children before executing the men, some of whom were combatants. I do not consider the General Assembly of the United Nations to be competent to determine whether or not an event was genocide.”

The evidence strongly supports Zuroff’’s position. Over twenty years after the event, there is no proof that Serbian forces had the required special intent (dolus specialis) to exterminate the population of Srebrenica, not to speak of their coreligionists throughout Bosnia. As Zuroff observed, the reproductive part of the population was unharmed, which directly contradicts the existence of genocidal intent. Furthermore, autopsy reports show that there were remains of a total of 1,920 individuals in Srebrenica mass graves, which is less than a quarter of the wildly inflated official figure of 8,000 victims. Pattern of injury analysis reveals that even of those about 70% died of a variety of causes, mainly combat injuries, and that at most about 800 exhibited injuries consistent with execution.

That number is roughly equivalent to the number of Serbian civilians that were killed in raids on surrounding Serbian villages carried out from the UN protected enclave of Srebrenica during the three years that preceded its capture.

It was also established, on the basis of survivor statements, that in the period immediately following the Serbian forces’ entry into Srebrenica, on July 11, 1995, fierce combat continued with the 28th Division of the Army of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as it was breaking out of Serbian encirclement. That resulted in several thousand combat deaths that were entirely legitimate under international law and therefore could not be attributed to “genocide”. However, collective West propaganda and the illegal Tribunal at the Hague that was set up specifically to reach preordained legal and factual conclusions about the war in Bosnia were happy to conflate combat casualties with real victims in order to fix the 8,000 victims figure that they regarded as the psychological minimum for the allegation of genocide to appear credible.

The politically motivated Srebrenica resolution is due to be introduced on the General Assembly’s agenda toward the end of April, 2024. Coincidentally, that also happens to be a date of great significance to a real genocide, commemorated at roughly the same time. On April 22, 1945, just days before the defeat of the Axis and the end of World War II, the few surviving prisoners of the Jasenovac concentration camp in Nazi-aligned “Independent State of Croatia,” called by Israeli historian Gideon Greif the “Auschwitz of the Balkans,” staged a rebellion, with a handful managing to escape. It is estimated that between 1941 and 1945 in Jasenovac about 600,000 victims, Serbs, Jews and Roma, perished for reasons of their race or ethnicity.

And yet this anniversary of a real genocide is of no interest to the German government. It chose pointedly to ignore it when signing on to the baseless Srebrenica resolution. If it had a shred of honour and decency it would not have done so, regardless of the instructions of its Transatlantic overseers. The appalling details of the uninterrupted four- year butchery in Jasenovac are not in dispute, having horrified even hardened SS officers. It was regarded with disgust by the German commanding general in Zagreb Glaise von Horstenau and the top German diplomat in the Balkans, Hermann Neubacher. The Jasenovac death camp was run and atrocities there were committed by the Croat equivalent of Ukrainian Banderites, that is correct, but under international law, as the occupying power, it is Germany that had overall responsibility to ensure the safety of civilians and to prevent their indiscriminate extermination.

By choosing not to interfere with the bestiality of its local Croatian satellites, instead of preventing Germany in fact facilitated those outrages.

We now have a clear answer to the question in the title of this text. No, there seem to be no limits to their contemptible cynicism and hypocrisy. If Germany were truly looking for a way to assuage its conscience and to demonstrate repentance, it would be submitting in the General Assembly a resolution to condemn one of the authentic genocides, in Jasenovac and throughout Croatia during World War II, in the perpetration of which it played at least a facilitating role. It would not be virtue signalling with the politically concocted “genocide” in Srebrenica, made up out of thin air to humiliate and bully a proud nation that refuses to submit to the dictates of the collective West (of which Germany is a subservient member) today, just as its grandparents had refused to bow to Hitler and his minions in 1941.

Sadly, whatever Germany and its Transatlantic handlers ultimately do, it would be naïve to expect that they will receive their proper comeuppance from the cowardly Serbian government. That government will not, as it should and is perfectly entitled to do, introduce in the General Assembly its own resolution calling on the world community to recognise and condemn the genocidal extermination of the Serbian people in Jasenovac and elsewhere in Banderite Croatia during World War II.

In fact, it is a matter of great interest to see whether in fear of its Western masters that miserable government will even dare to vote against occupied Germany’s and pathetic Rwanda’s resolution in the General Assembly, blaming the Serbian people for the fictitious “genocide” in Srebrenica.

After all, in November 2022 the Serbian government instructed their representative in the UN to shamefully abstain on the resolution condemning the glorification of Nazism, racism, and xenophobia, evils from which their own people had suffered immeasurably. So on the upcoming Srebrenica resolution, all bets are off.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... -cynicism/

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German police shut down pro-Palestine conference

Police conducted arrests of attendees, while German authorities prevented conference guest and Gazan doctor Ghassan Abu Sitta from even entering the country

April 12, 2024 by Peoples Dispatch

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Thousands of police descend on the Palestine Congress in Berlin (Photo via Progressive International/X)

On April 12, in another round of repression against Palestine solidarity organizers, German police shut down the Palestine Congress in Berlin, arresting several attendees and ordering delegates to leave immediately. German officials also prohibited scheduled speaker Ghassan Abu Sitta, Palestinian-British surgeon and the rector of Glasgow University, from even entering the country. The Congress aimed to raise awareness about Germany’s charges of complicity in Israeli genocide in the International Court of Justice, which have been raised by Nicaragua.

German police dramatically stormed the stage of the conference and proceeded to shut down speakers after the Congress had already begun, interrupted and stopped the conference livestream, and broke into the control room to shut off the power. Red Media provided live updates to the police repression, reporting that, “900 police are deployed to the congress, whose start they held up for hours. They demanded that organizers allow all German media into the congress, ironically to ‘safeguard free speech’ and then denied entry to most of the registered delegates.”


German police have arrested several activists participating in the Congress, including Jewish activists. Anti-Zionist Jewish activists are heavily targeted in Germany, despite Germany’s attempt to justify its support to Israel as “collective guilt” over the holocaust and repenting for its infamous antisemitism. Yet, according to researcher Emily Dische-Becker, almost a third of those deplatformed, arrested, or otherwise sanctioned for alleged antisemitism are themselves Jewish. Videos from the repression show a Jewish activist being arrested outside of the conference, with police seizing a banner that read “Jew Against Genocide.”

German authorities have staged notable crack downs on the Palestine solidarity movement several times since October 7. Activists claim that while German Jews are indeed arrested for showing solidarity with Palestine, it is the Palestinians that bear the brunt of repression. “We Jews are just getting arrested, the Palestinians are being beaten,” German-Israeli activist Iris Hefets told Al Jazeera. On March 22, the homes of Palestinian activists Said and Yasemin were raided by German police in the middle of the night from their homes in Berlin, with both alleging targeted persecution from German authorities.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2024/04/12/ ... onference/

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Germany stands on wrong side of history again

April 12, 2024

Germany and the United States along with other Western powers are continuing deep-seated historical crimes by way of their proxy war against Russia

The repeating of history might seem tragic, even farcical. One may wonder how such apparent madness can be repeated. But the explanation is straightforward when it is understood that the motive force is the same.

The charge against Germany at the International Court of Justice this week of aiding genocide in Gaza is truly shameful. Germany was brought to court by Nicaragua for facilitating Israel’s genocide in Gaza in breach of the 1948 Genocide Convention.

That convention was created in the aftermath of Nazi Germany’s mass murder of six million Jews during World War Two. Only 79 years after the end of that war, the German state is again in the dock for complicity in an ongoing genocide in Gaza committed by a self-declared Jewish state of Israel.

It seems a shocking and deplorable twist in history. Within living memory, Germany stands accused again of abominable crimes against humanity.

What is even more disgraceful, the German authorities are denying that Israel is committing genocide and that Germany is nobly defending Israel’s security out of a special obligation owing to its heinous World War Two holocaust.

Germany’s supposed rationale for supporting Israel is an astounding perversion of history.

The case against Germany this week is incontestable as was the earlier case brought against Israel by South Africa in January before the same United Nations court at The Hague. A definitive ruling by the court on both cases is pending.

Nevertheless, already world public opinion is in concurrence with numerous international legal and human rights experts that Israel’s military siege of the Gaza Strip amounts to genocide and incorporates multiple violations of international law. Ergo, Germany’s culpability.

Over the past six months, Israel’s wanton destruction of the Palestinian territory has resulted in over 33,000 deaths, including more than 14,000 children and 10,000 women among the victims. The actual death toll is probably more than 46,000 given that 13,000 people are missing under rubble or buried in unmarked graves. It is feared that there will be up to 100,000 dead in the coming months as famine and disease intensify.

Germany is the second biggest supplier of weapons to Israel after the United States. Germany accounts for nearly one-third of all Israeli arms imports.

Israel’s murderous, indiscriminate siege of Gaza involving a deliberate policy of mass starvation of more than two million people would not be happening if it were not for crucial military support from the United States and Germany.

But just as important as the killing machines and ammunition is the unwavering political support provided by Germany, the United States, and all of their Western allies. Unbelievably, Berlin, Washington, London, Paris, and other Western capitals continue to assert that Israel is not committing genocide. Like U.S. President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz repeats the cynical and mendacious mantra about Israel’s right to self-defense.

What is going on in Gaza is a bloodbath enabled by Western imperialist powers. The U.S. and all its Western allies are accomplices in egregious war crimes. Live on television every day, and yet the contemptible Western media assiduously sanitize and mitigate the horror. In any sane world, the Western governments and their corporate-controlled “news media” should be irredeemably condemned for their complicity.

However, Germany’s culpability takes on a profoundly disturbing and disgraceful significance, as does the Zionist regime’s. In the name of millions of victims of Nazi Germany, the genocide in Gaza is being perpetrated with a truculence and self-righteousness that is despicable beyond words. It is utterly diabolical that the historic mass murder of Jews by Germany is now being repeated on others by a state that claims to be Jewish – and enabled by Germany. You could hardly make this obscenity up.

It should be understood too that the horror being perpetrated in Gaza is but one element in a toxic eruption of imperialist crimes currently underway across the globe.

In Ukraine, the Western imperialists in the NATO axis are waging a proxy war against Russia utilizing a corrupt NeoNazi regime headed up by a nominally Jewish puppet president who is up to his eyes in money laundering, fraud, and swindling. Germany is the second biggest supplier of weapons to the Ukrainian regime after the United States.

Eight decades ago, Nazi Germany deployed Ukrainian fascists to exterminate Jews and Slavs with a death toll of up to 30 million Soviet citizens. The contemporary Ukrainian regime glorifies these Nazi collaborators. The United States deployed the same Ukrainian fascists after the Second World War to wage covert war against the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

Thus, Germany and the United States along with other Western powers are continuing deep-seated historical crimes by way of their proxy war against Russia.

The same imperialist rogue states are enabling Israeli aggression against Iran, Syria and Lebanon. Israel’s deadly bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus earlier this month was a particularly brazen violation of international law. The barbarity of the Israeli fascist regime is fully enabled and incentivized by its Western patrons. The bitter irony is Washington and Berlin remonstrating with Iran to exercise “maximum restraint” while Israel openly attacks its sovereignty and assassinates its citizens.

Meanwhile, the United States, Australia and Britain are cajoling Japan to join their military alliance to provoke China. Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was feted in Washington this week where he signed bellicose new military measures aimed at China and Russia. Kishida linked Ukraine with Asia, claiming that if Russia were to win the war in Ukraine, then China would take over East Asia. The Japanese minion gets its half right. The regions are indeed linked, not by alleged Russian and Chinese misconduct, but by the U.S.-led imperialism that Japan is cravenly serving.

Western imperialism and fascism have come full circle in a staggeringly short span of history. Nearly 80 years after Japan was defeated in the Pacific War in which it was responsible for up to 20 million deaths in China, Tokyo is at the forefront of new plans to wage a potential nuclear war on China. The perversion of Japan joining with the United States in this venture after the latter dropped two atomic bombs on its people in 1945 is yet another sickening twist in history.

The monstrous crimes of Nazi Germany and fascist Japan are today rehabilitated because the same forces serve the imperialist geopolitical interests of today.

The twists and contradictions of history are, however, crystallized in one historical force. All the crimes, barbarity, bloodshed and danger of catastrophic world war are the cause of imperialist powers – chief among them the United States and its insatiable quest for hegemonic domination.

Historic failure and systemic collapse of Western capitalism is the motive engine driving the world to war again, as it was in previous periods of the modern age. Colonialist genocide, World War One, World War Two, and now the abyss of World War Three.

Germany in the dock for genocide with Israel is not as incongruous as it might seem. Because imperialism and fascism are on the rampage again across the world. Both Germany and Israel are gang members in the crime syndicate, each with their specific justifying myths and alibis.

Russia and China are arguably the two nations that suffered the most in history from fascism. It is entirely consistent – if not lamentable – that Russia and China today are once again confronted by the same forces.

Germany is once again on the wrong side of history. And so too are the United States and all its Western vassals. Eternal shame on them.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... ory-again/

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Europe’s sinking economy: how many causes can we name while ignoring the Russia factor?

As I indicated in my last essay, a great deal of information that would allow one independently to come to a comprehensive understanding of what is going on in the world is available in mainstream media, however counterintuitive that may be for those who revile the Washington narrative and its commercial purveyors. However, the facts we need to know are either buried deep in articles that have titles and opening paragraphs that contradict the content lower down OR as I wrote in that last essay, they are separate dots that are never connected by the journalists and their editors to draw the big picture they do not want to see.

My case today is not taken from the Ukraine war but from its consequences: the visible and statistically demonstrated decline of the European economy and in particular of the country that has long been celebrated as its locomotive, Germany.

This issue has featured in much of the reporting of The Financial Times and other major media these last several weeks when numbers for the economic performance at the end of last year and start of this year have been published. The latest growth estimate for Europe put out by the European Central Bank is an anemic 0.6% while Germany is likely entering a second quarter of recession.

A lot has been written about the leading causes of the bad economic results, in the expectation that once they are identified suitable corrective measures can be put in place. Of late, attention has been directed at the weak capital markets in Europe, compared to the United States, for example, all of which deprives industry of funds for investment that will raise productivity and make Europe more competitive on world markets.

Additional points for discussion are eagerly awaited from Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister and former President of the European Central Bank, who has been tasked by the European Commission to deliver recommendations on how European competitiveness might be improved.

However, these approaches overlook the fact that deficient capital markets and the many other handicaps that Draghi is likely to name have been around for a long time but that the present stark weakness of the German economy is something very new and, frankly astonishing, to anyone who cares to look at the figures on the collapse of German automobile manufacturing, for example.

Going back six months or more there were articles in our press and feature programs on the BBC and other media recounting how German industrialists are moving abroad and making new manufacturing investments there rather than in their homeland. At that time the high cost of energy ever since Russian pipeline gas was discontinued following the destruction of Nord Stream I was openly mentioned as a factor in the deindustrialization of Germany.

However, that objectivity and frankness has since been put aside. In a BBC report on German industry a week ago, I heard that high energy costs due to the end of cheap Russian gas is not a significant factor in Germany’s economic travails since only 6% of German industry is very energy dependent.

Today, when European gas prices have dropped dramatically from the record levels of late 2022, there is some truth in reducing the weight we give to energy when explaining the German economic decline that is ongoing. However, natural gas has a far greater role in economic and social life than just to fuel the metallurgical or glass industries. It also is feedstock for the chemical and related industries as well as for fertilizers needed to maintain German and European agricultural output. Moreover, the decision of the German and European governments to prioritize geopolitics over domestic economic performance has been a very clear message to industry that Europe is not the place they want to be. Industrialists may not say much in public, but their falling investment here speaks volumes.

The facts are so obvious when you look at them that even the propagandists at The Financial Times have been obliged to give them space. See the article a day ago entitled “German industry unlikely to fully recover from energy crisis, warns RWE boss.” Here you see it in black and white: “German industry is unlikely to recover to pre-Ukraine war levels as elevated prices from imported liquefied natural gas have put Europe’s largest economy at a ‘disadvantage’, the chief of one of Germany’s leading energy companies has warned.”

This is not Russian propaganda. It is highly authoritative and responsible German executives speaking and they are reported in the viciously anti-Russian FT. No investigative journalists like Sy Hersh need apply to light the way for the general public.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/04/12/ ... ia-factor/
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Thu Apr 18, 2024 2:27 pm

Can a New German Party Steer the European Left in a More Effective Direction?
Posted on April 17, 2024 by Conor Gallagher

The German political establishment is so gripped by paranoia over Russia that Chancellor Olaf Scholz is now being compared to Neville Chamberlain:


This is the environment in which German opposition figure Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party will test its platform in the June European Parliament elections. (It will also get to measure its appeal in state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in the fall.) A key part of that platform is opposition to war against Russia, which Wagenknecht made clear in a recent Bundestag speech: https://twitter.com/i/status/1769376253859987917

Aside from Ukrainians, the war against Russia has arguably hurt working class Germans more than anyone else. Despite that fact, Wagenknecht is labeled a “Putin appeaser” and one with “sympathies towards Russia” for her opposition.

It’s also means that how the party steered by Wagenknecht – Reason and Justice (BSW) – fares in the European elections, and what it does afterwards will be interesting to watch.

BSW is projected to become the largest left delegation within the European Parliament after the June vote, and she is reportedly planning an attempt to form a new parliamentary group – one that could effectively demolish the existing moribund Left Group.

The Wagenknecht Platform

Wagenknecht’s “left-wing conservativism” would mean a left less focused on identity issues while prioritizing working class economic issues. While not opposing immigration on any racial grounds, she acknowledges voters’ concerns that too much immigration can be problematic: “​​people are experiencing a lack of housing, teachers are overworked, children can’t speak German and there are cultural conflicts.”

Wagenknecht gets a lot of criticism for her stance on immigration, but the fact is that’s what German voters are most concerned about:

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And it’s what has led to the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party that has fascist elements at its core:

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Both the AfD and Wagenknecht’s BSW are in favor of reclaiming German sovereignty from the EU and the US/NATO and acting in Germany’s national interest, which would mean ending its participation in the economic war against Russia that has done far more damage to Germany. They also both favor rethinking German immigration policy.

The struggle for Wagenknecht is drawing distinctions between the two parties. To do so, BSW is focusing on three lines of attack:

*That BSW is the true representative of the working class while AfD opposes globalists in favor of a more national oligarchy. (The AfD, after all, did receive its seed money from a Nazi billionaire family.) BSW likes to point out AfD’s hypocrisy in supporting the recent farmers protests in Germany while the party’s program simultaneously calls for removing farmer subsidies. “This is not an anti-system party. It is the system, but undemocratic and mean,” says BSW General Secretary Christian Leye.
*That the AfD opposes immigration on racial grounds that harken back to some dark chapters in German history while BSW wants common sense approaches that would benefit the German working class.
*The BSW also describes itself as the only consistent peace party in the Bundestag. The AfD, on the other hand, is not at all opposed to militarization. In fact, the party calls for the full restoration of operational readiness of the German armed forces. The AfD’s problem is that the US/NATO exercise too much control over the German military without taking into account German national interests.

Here’s more on Wagenknecht’s European elections platform from Table Europe:

The leitmotif of the program is: “Less is more.” The BSW strives for an “independent Europe of sovereign democracies.” The integration of Europe “in the direction of a supranational unitary state has proven to be a mistake.”

The BSW wants to prevent wage dumping in the internal market and is calling for the introduction of a European minimum wage. A postulate that the Left Party also has in its program. The demand for an excess profits tax in the industrial sector and a reform of the debt brake is also common to both parties. The power of large corporations such as Google or Amazon must be restricted, said De Masi. The BSW is calling for an end to energy sanctions against Russia. They were not harming Putin, but Germany.

De Masi left out the topic of migration in his speech. The program remains relatively vague on the subject: illegal migration must be stopped and prospects in the home countries improved, it says. The right to asylum is not called into question. However, immigration should not overburden local capacities.

Who Supports BSW?

Mainly working class voters opposed to the Ukraine War.

The ZDF political barometer from February shows that while a little more than 50 percent of respondents rated their economic situation as “good,” just under one in three BSW supporters say the same. And nearly half of BSW supporters believe that they will be worse off in a year than they are today. At the same time, while a majority of respondents were in favor of supplying more weapons to Ukraine, among BSW supporters it was less than 40 percent.

If those numbers seem high, it’s probably a sign of the atmosphere in Germany where those opposed to sending Ukraine missiles capable of reaching Moscow are labeled Neville Chamberlain.

Plans are in the works for Wagenknecht’s party to form a left contingent in the European Parliament opposed to the Russia policy and steer it away from the party she left, Die Linke (The Left), which has completely collapsed after abandoning nearly all of its former working class platform in favor of identity politics in an attempt to appear “ready to govern.” Much like the Greens, The Left increasingly stands for neoliberal, pro-war and anti-Russia policies.

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To form a new parliamentary group within the chamber, Wagenknecht would need 23 MEPs from seven EU countries. Who are its potential allies?

BSW representatives have confirmed prospective talks with France’s La France Insoumise. Other European Parliament members opposed to Project Ukraine are possibilities. Slovakia’s ruling Smer party, for example, was recently suspended from the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats group in the parliament for questioning NATO and its social conservatism.

A hostile takeover of the current left delegation is also a possibility as there may not be enough MEPs to sustain two separate left-wing factions. According to The European Conservative:

Tactically, the German politician has not ruled out joining the current parliamentary Left faction—becoming the effective kingmaker within—and could simply be using the threat of a new group as leverage.

Regardless, Wagenknecht’s BSW will likely be another thorn in the side of von der leyen (should she remain as European Commission president). We could always use more of this:


Criticism from All Sides

Wagenknecht’s BSW doesn’t just get it from what’s now referred to as the German “center” (i.e., the parties of warmongers and anti-working class policies).

It also gets a lot of criticism from the left – especially on the immigration issue.

They say that Wagenknecht’s party is just another flavor of capitalism and criticizes the party for its declared willingness to work with other parties to advance its issues. That is not the solution; according to WSWS, it is the following:

The only way to oppose militarism, prevent a third world war and defend social rights is through the international mobilisation of the working class against capitalism. No problem can be solved without breaking the power of the banks and corporations and bringing them under democratic control. Such a movement requires the unification of workers across all national, ethnic and religious boundaries.

While this is at least genuine, the disingenuous criticism from liberal identity wings is that Wagenknecht is “anti-vanguard” for ignoring identity issues in favor of class-based politics. In their eyes this makes her right wing (and even comparable to Benito Mussolini). These arguments are representative of the fear that the return of a class-based left would crash the cushy party of a finance-centered political economy that is welded to the politics of recognition.

There’s an argument to be made that Wagenknecht’s brand of politics is one hope at containing the rise of the far right, and it’s one that Wagenknecht makes herself:

Wagenknecht also blames the government for the rise of the AfD. Any criticism of politics is immediately defamed as right-wing, as was recently the case with the farmers’ demonstrations. We already know this from the protests during the Covid pandemic. “If people have been told for years that any reasonable criticism is right-wing, then it’s no wonder that a right-wing party is successful.” The fact that the traffic light politicians are now taking to the streets at anti-AfD protests is absurd. “If they really want to weaken the AfD, they don’t need to demonstrate, they need to finally change their miserable policies.”

Not only is Berlin ignoring that advice, but the same is true across Europe where the overall picture is one of an ascendant right. Right-wing parties are expected to win the election in six of the EU’s 27 member states, including France and Italy.

It’s a strong possibility that a right-wing coalition will take the reins in the parliament for the first time in its history. There is however, a lot of variation on the right – especially on the issue of Ukraine. Some are true believers, others were against the EU/NATO before they were for it, and others still oppose the war against Russia.

The European Peoples Party, which is projected to remain the largest bloc in the parliament, is a major backer of Project Ukraine. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) is too. ECR is led by Brothers of Italy, Law and Justice in Poland, VOX in Spain, and the Sweden Democrats.

The opposition to Project Ukraine can be found on the right in the Identity and Democracy (ID) party, although it might be softening – at least in the case Rassamblent National:


Germany’s AfD and Lega in Italy continue to hold onto their opposition to the economic war on Russia and are constantly hammered by spooks, media, think tanks, and politicians over it. Nonetheless, ID, which also includes Geert Wilders Party for Freedom and Austria’s Freedom Party, is projected to become the third largest EP grouping, up from its sixth-place finish in the elections of 2019.

At the end of the day, the sad reality is that parliament has a limited ability to do much other than provide a facade of democracy. The parliament is supposed to act as a check on commission power. It has to approve legislation proposed by the European Commission, it can censure the Commission, and the European Council has to ‘take into account’ the result of the parliament elections to nominate the Commission president – although the latter process turned into a backroom disaster in 2019 when Ursula von der Leyen failed upwards into the job.

EU leaders dismissed all the parties’ candidates and surprisingly elevated Ursula von der Leyen, who had not featured in the race and was doing a poor job as Germany’s defense minister.

As president of the European Commission, she holds sweeping powers on a range of issues, including tech, healthcare and social rights. Recent polling shows that a majority of voters (63 percent) either view the Commission’s work negatively or have no opinion.

Nonetheless, von der Leyen looks like the odds-on favorite to return to the job and continue her reign.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04 ... ction.html

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The Formation of NATO: World War II Did Not End, It was Reconfigured, Directed Eastwards
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on APRIL 16, 2024
Rick Rozoff and Michael Welch

Research News Hour. Interview with Rick Rozoff on 75th Anniversary of NATO.

Rick Rozoff is a renowned author and geopolitical analyst, actively involved in opposing war, militarism and interventionism for over fifty years. He manages the Anti-Bellum and For peace, against war website.

In the following interview, recorded on March 26, 2024, Mr. Rozoff talks about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) which he has opposed for decades, and where it is headed.


Global Research: It’s been said that the real reason an atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki was not really to end the war. The allied Soviet Union had said they were preparing an invasion in early-August 1945, so the US figured it would drop the bombs first and thereby send the message that they had won the war by forcing Japan’s surrender. But they were also warning the Soviet Union about their awesome arsenal that could be targeting them. I bring this up, because I suspect the role of NATO to defend the world from the Soviet threat maybe – may not be accurate either. There is another story behind building up NATO. What in your view is the real reason NATO came into existence?

Rick Rozoff: It was a shift in World War II where the Western powers, US, Britain, French Resistance and Free French and such like continued the War, but shifted from waging war against the Axis powers, Germany, Italy, Romania, and so forth, towards the Soviet Union. I mean, it’s quite simply that. And Dwight D. Eisenhower, who was, you know, the top commander of allied forces in Europe during World War II became the first supreme allied commander of NATO when NATO was set up in 1949. So, it was a very smooth transition, down to the very same, you know, top commander.

World War II did not, in that sense, end so much as it was reconfigured and directed eastward, that’s my read on it. And of course, it was 75 years ago next month that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was established, initially with 12 members. All 12 of which, with the exception of Italy, could lay claim to being on the North Atlantic Ocean, by the way. Italy, if you really wanted to stretch the point also, you know, through being in the Mediterranean which is an inlet of the Atlantic Ocean. Of course, now you’re looking – well, I don’t want to jump too far ahead – but you’re looking at NATO which has grown appreciably where the majority of its members are nowhere near the North Atlantic Ocean.

GR: So, basically you’re saying that – I mean, like the alliance, you know, to fight off Hitler, I mean I guess they felt they had a good thing coming, so… But, I guess there’s somehow that solidarity or whatever. Let’s just hold onto this and just direct it towards the Big Red Bear. Is that essentially what you’re saying?

RR: That’s exactly what happened. And they pivoted, to use the popular expression, on a dime. It didn’t take very long. Almost immediately after V-E Day and certainly after V-J Day, you know, Victory in Europe, Victory Over Japan that you alluded to, then the Soviet Union became the replacement for the Third Reich and Mussolini.

And so, the military apparatus that the United States had established during the years from 1943-45 in Italy and in Germany and France and then the Low Countries, Benelux Countries, then became the foundation for NATO which remained and remains to this day, by the way, where the supreme allied commander of NATO has always been an American general or admiral. So, that much has not changed from 1949, or for that matter from 1945, until the current day.

GR: So, during the Cold War, I mean, was there anything, you know, about NATO – because, I mean, you started criticizing NATO before the fall of the Berlin Wall as I understand it. So, what were you finding objectionable back in the Cold War era that set you off?

RR: I wouldn’t want to put too fine a point on this because I think, you know, it’s going to distract from talking about post-Cold War NATO. And there are people out there who may want to defend NATO up until 1989 or up until 1991, and my argument is really not with them so much anymore, because as interesting as that is, I think we have more pressing concerns to be honest, Michael. And I personally feel that it was meant as a display of American military might in Europe, not only against the Soviet Union, its allies, and Eastern Europe, but also against political parties in countries like France, Belgium, Italy, Communist Party in the first instance, that may have wanted to reach some rapprochement with the Soviet Union and the permanent deployment of US – and the US, you know, Sixth Fleet is still based in Italy. And the US still has nuclear weapons in five European countries and suchlike. But this is all the result of using NATO to position the US Military for a permanent presence in Europe, first of all against the Soviet Union, then again the Soviet successor state: Russia.

Yet also, you know, you mention nuclear weapons. I believe it was as early as 1951, which is to say, only two years after the founding of NATO that the US moved nuclear weapons into Europe, into Britain initially, under NATO auspices and why NATO continues to maintain tactical nuclear weapons in Belgium, in The Netherlands, Italy, Germany, and Turkey under what NATO calls “burden sharing,” or “nuclear sharing” arrangements.

GR: Well, NATO underwent a transformation after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of communism, because it otherwise would no longer have a reason to continue, but it did. What do you know about what the thinkers at the top were thinking? I mean, how and when did they come to the conclusion that NATO would now be an aggressive force behind human rights. I mean, subsequently attacking people in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Libya?

RR: The 1989 speech by President H.W. Bush in Mainz, Germany whence the expression – it’s actually sometimes published with – the expression I’m going to mention in a second – as it’s titled, “A Europe Whole and Free,” sometimes “Europe Whole, Free, and at Peace.” And this is after the, you know, the dismantling of the Wall in Berlin and the beginning of the reunification of Germany. So, the point is clear coming from Washington, coming from the White House, that Europe was to be “united,” — the exact word – there was to be a continental system, you know, if I’m not going too far astray, comparable to those of Napoleon Bonaparte, or for that matter, Hitler, that would unite the entire European continent under one military command.

That has been NATO’s objective since 1989. Certainly since 1991 with the formal dissolution of the Warsaw Pact which itself, by the way, was founded six years after NATO and in reaction to not only NATO being founded, but Germany, West Germany, the Southern Republic of Germany, being brought into NATO the preceding year. Contrary to the Potsdam, you know, Accords reached by Britain, United States, and the Soviet Union at the end of World War II.

So, what NATO has accomplished in the interim and is now going to celebrate in all its splendour in July in the United States in Washington at its 75th anniversary summit, is that indeed, the entire European continent, with the exception of Russia and Belarus, have now been brought under NATO command.

GR: But NATO is not just a military force. It seems to me it’s a parasite. There are components of NATO that involve industry and jobs and a whole economic and financial infrastructure has grown around NATO. So, there would be massive losses of jobs and a shrinking of a tax base meaning, you know, social programs as well would be compromised. Can you address these sorts of concerns about some who would resist ending NATO or getting out of NATO?

RR: I mean, you’re correct about the fact that the NATO countries – I mean, let’s look at some arithmetic: the annual collective military spending – this is official, right, through defence ministries and the Defense Department in the United States. It excludes, you know, a good deal other military-related spending. But the official numbers, with the US leading the way by a long shot to the tune of something like 68 percent, but nevertheless, NATO countries account for $1.3 trillion in military spending per annum. This is as compared to, for example, Russia maybe $60 billion, you know, a small fraction of that. The population combined or collective population, NATO countries, now with Sweden joining, is 1 billion. You know, Russia is 150 million, if I remember right. So, to place these matters in perspective.

The other thing that needs to be mentioned – and this is the NATO summit in Washington in the Summer – will be the second time a NATO summit has been held in the capital of the United States. That symbolism is not to be missed. There was only one other summit in the United States and it was here in Chicago in 2012. But the first summit in Washington, the first in the United States, was in 1999 to mark the 50th anniversary of the creation of NATO. This one will mark the 75th anniversary.

Fifty years ago – I’m sorry, not 50 years ago but 25 years ago in 1999, when NATO met in Washington Nato had 16 members. When it finishes its summit this July in Washington, it will have 32 members, which is to say twice as many as it had in 1999 when it launched its first full fledged war against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

In the interim also, starting in the 1990s – you read an excerpt which I assumed was mine, it sounded very much like mine at the beginning of the programme – NATO has, in addition to those 32 full members, partners in the neighbourhood of probably 40 officially. And if you want to include the fact that NATO considers the African Union to be a collective partner, it has a liaison office next to that of the African Union in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia. But officially, they have 40 members who, together with the – not 40 members, 40 partners – who, together with the 32 members, some of these are countries, are on all six inhabited continents, bar none. And as there are military personnel in Antarctica from NATO countries, you can throw that one in for good measure and all the continents in the world even have NATO presence.

That is something that is so historically unprecedented in scale and scope and ambition and nature, that it really puzzles me and I have to admit it makes me despondent sometimes that for 25 years I’ve been trying to alert people to this, to the scale of it. And I feel that people are either indifferent to it, they downplay it, they mock it. Global Research is not immune itself from running articles that suggest that, you know, NATO is a paper tiger, paper pussycat in one person’s parlance, and so forth. I’ll state my claim, and I hope I’m not wrong, that NATO is a deadly serious business and a real threat to world peace. And if it is, and it has been for the past 25 years, then I think the peace movement and other forces in the world have been grossly negligent in taking this one on.

GR: Going forward then, what would you assume NATO’s next targets would be if there’s no resistance? And you know, what kinds of – how do you expect their development to evolve over the next two or three years?

RR: You know, they’re very open about these matters. There’s nothing esoteric about them. Go to the NATO website. They have two features today and one is at the Moldova [SIC] solidifying its relationship with NATO. It’s going to join. But you know, as a precondition for joining, it cannot have foreign troops on its territory, nor can it have unresolved territorial disputes. And Transnistria, you know, fills, you know, both those – checks both of those boxes off. So, it would be necessary. And Transnistria is surrounded by Moldova in the West, Ukraine on the East, it would be necessary to expel the Russian peacekeeping force of the couple thousand troops, and then reincorporate Transnistria into Moldova in order for it to join NATO. But you know, those movements – that movement is well under way.

The general secretary of NATO, as you may know, has just recently made a trip to the three South Caucasus nations of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Armenia has suspended its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, I would argue justifiably, you know, given Russia’s unwillingness to defend it against attacks from Azerbaijan. And so, what are they doing? They’re wrapping up – they’re doing a mopping up operation. They are absorbing what’s left of the former Soviet Union, except for, at least the moment, Belarus and Russia itself. They’ve already incorporated, of course, some 15 years ago they incorporated – more than that, 17 years ago – they – 20 years ago they incorporated three former Soviet Union republics, you know, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuanian. They, you know, ensconced themselves deeply in the three countries I’ve just mentioned in the South Caucasus. Ukraine I don’t have to tell you about. And Moldova, that’s the former Soviet Union.

So, they have not only – there was a statement by George W. Bush during the round of massive NATO expansions in the early part of the century where, at one NATO summit, seven countries joined at one time. Again, that’s totally unprecedented. Two of those former Yugoslav federal republics and three of them former Soviet republics. There was a statement attributed to George W. Bush saying, “The Warsaw Pact has now become NATO, in fact.”

GR: Rick Rozoff, thank you very much for your intelligent and eloquent analysis.

RR: Yeah, I wish I had better news to bring you, my friend. You know, we sit back and we allow military monoliths of this scale to spread over the last, you know, 33 years and we effectively do nothing about it. You know, they’re not going to be held in check unless we hold them in check. And we have to sound the alarm that the existence of a military bloc of 70-some odd countries on all continents is something that really should ring some bells and really should raise some alarms and people should really commit themselves to looking into it and doing what they can to reign this thing in until it can be dismantled.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/04/ ... eastwards/

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The Three Great Myths of NATO
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on APRIL 17, 2024
Sevim Dagdelen

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To mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Sevim Dagdelen, foreign policy spokesperson for the “Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht” group in the German Bundestag, has published the book “Die NATO. A reckoning with the alliance of values”. In the introduction, the MP addresses the three great myths of NATO.

NATO celebrates its 75th birthday in 2024 and appears to be at the height of its power. More than ever before, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is focusing on expansion. In Ukraine, NATO is waging a proxy war against Russia in response to its war of aggression in violation of international law: the military pact is involved in training Ukrainian soldiers with NATO weapons, with massive arms deliveries, intelligence information and the provision of target data as well as its own soldiers on the ground. The delivery of cruise missiles, such as the German Taurus type, to Ukraine, which can reach Moscow or St. Petersburg with a range of 500 kilometers, as well as the deployment of NATO troops on a large scale are being discussed. The signs are pointing to a storm.

NATO is expanding its presence in Asia: By integrating new partner states such as Japan and South Korea, it is advancing into the Indo-Pacific region and seeking a confrontation with China. The military expenditure of the USA and other NATO member states is soaring to record highs. While the champagne corks are popping at the arms suppliers, the gigantic costs of armament are being passed on to the population.Overstretch, social upheaval and the risk of escalation are the downside of this expansive power policy.They challenge the alliance in an unprecedented way.This makes NATO all the more dependent on legends today.Three major myths run from the founding of the military pact through its bloody history to the present day.

The myth of defense and international law

NATO is a defense alliance.This is the eternally repeated narrative.But a look at the history of the military pact shows:Neither was mutual defense a priority when NATO was founded, nor can there be any talk of a defensive orientation in NATO’s appearance over the past decades.Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is often cited as proof of NATO’s character as a defensive alliance.In its founding agreement in 1949, the twelve signatory states, the USA and Canada, as well as the European states Belgium, Denmark, France, Great Britain, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway and Portugal, agreed that “an armed attack against any one of them in Europe or North America shall be considered as an attack against all of them”.NATO members undertake to assist each other in order to defend themselves jointly against such an attack.

The Inter-American Treaty of Mutual Assistance serves as an explicit model here. This mutual assistance pact was concluded by the American member states in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 1947 on Washington’s initiative and came into force a year later.In the face of the Cold War, the USA wanted to secure its dominance on the American continent with this treaty, as a result of which the Organization of American States (OAS) was founded in the same year.This was in the spirit of an updated Monroe Doctrine, with which the USA had declared the western hemisphere to be its exclusive zone of influence in 1823.

NATO is also part of this tradition. As with the Inter-American Treaty, the signatory states of the North Atlantic Treaty are completely unbalanced in terms of power and military policy.When NATO was founded, the USA was clearly not interested in support from other alliance partners in the event of defense.Rather, Washington is striving to create a “Pax Americana”, an exclusive sphere of influence that gives the USA, as the undisputed leading power, control over the foreign and security policy of the other alliance partners.The basis of NATO is an exchange.The other NATO members give up parts of their democratic sovereignty and are rewarded with the NATO security guarantee, which is de facto a security guarantee from the USA.(…)

Within the military pact, the other NATO members sink to the level of client states, like those that once served as a military buffer zone in the east of the Roman Empire to maintain the Roman Empire’s power.

Any domestic political change that could have called into question the foreign policy orientation was forbidden to these client states on pain of their own downfall.

In order to prevent such developments, NATO relied on its own coup organizations with its Stay Behind groups during the Cold War.They also used terrorist means to actively prevent political forces that questioned NATO membership from gaining power.

The end of the systemic conflict with the Soviet Union radically changed NATO’s primary purpose of creating a “Pax Americana”.Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has increasingly seen itself in the role of world policeman.With the invasion of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which at that time still consisted of Serbia and Montenegro, the military pact waged its first war in 1999.A clear breach of international law, as the then German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder himself admitted 15 years later: “We sent our planes (…) to Serbia, and together with NATO they bombed a sovereign state – without there having been a Security Council decision.” After this original sin, NATO is developing into a warfare pact that is prepared to break international law.A clear contradiction to its own charter, in which the NATO states commit themselves according to Article 1 to “refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations”.The defense of the Alliance’s territory now becomes merely part of its claim to act as a global power.

In 2003, NATO members the USA and the UK invaded Iraq in a war of aggression in violation of international law.They put together a “coalition of the willing” specifically for this purpose, which also included numerous other NATO members such as Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Portugal and Slovakia, as well as the later NATO members Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia and Lithuania.Washington and its accomplices are thus blatantly violating international law and the NATO states involved are violating the fundamental provisions of their own charter.The Iraq war is also accompanied by the NATO AWACS mission in Turkey, which can be interpreted as support for the war.Even if the war against Iraq is not a NATO war, there are serious arguments for attributing the invasion to the military pact.NATO members such as Germany did not deny the USA the use of military bases as part of the NATO structure in Europe and did not deny overflight rights for US forces, even though the German government’s commitment to the rules of international law in accordance with Article 20 Paragraph 3 and Article 25 of the Basic Law prohibits it from participating in actions by non-German sovereigns on German soil if these violate international law.

The Iraq war is also accompanied by the NATO AWACS mission in Turkey, which can be interpreted as support for the war. Even if the war against Iraq is not a NATO war, there are serious arguments for attributing the invasion to the military pact.NATO members such as Germany did not deny the USA the use of military bases as part of the NATO structure in Europe and did not deny overflight rights for US forces, even though the German government’s commitment to the rules of international law in accordance with Article 20 Paragraph 3 and Article 25 of the Basic Law prohibits it from participating in actions by non-German sovereigns on German soil if these violate international law.

The war of aggression against Iraq by some NATO members in violation of international law was not even discussed in the NATO Council, nor was the use of NATO infrastructure. Their violation of the North Atlantic Treaty has no impact on the NATO membership of the USA or the UK. That was foreseeable.The war policy of the most important member of the alliance must therefore be attributed to the NATO military pact as a whole if one takes NATO’s self-image seriously.With its wars that violate international law, the USA stands as pars pro toto, as part of the whole.In Afghanistan, NATO has been waging a disastrous war for 20 years that has cost the lives of over 200,000 civilians.For the first and so far only time, the alliance is invoking Article 5 of the NATO treaty in this military operation after the attacks of September 11, 2001.The international public is to be made to believe that the freedom and security of the West are being defended in the Hindu Kush. Twenty years later, in August 2021, the Taliban move back into Kabul. The military operation proves to be a disaster. The US attempt to gain a military foothold in Central Asia in order to challenge China and Russia geopolitically has failed. The USA is leaving the country head over heels. Washington does not even inform its allies. Thousands of local NATO forces are being left in the lurch.

There is no sign of alliance solidarity. In order to obtain information, the German foreign intelligence service is even desperately considering bugging the Americans.In addition to Belgrade, Baghdad and Kabul, NATO’s trail of blood also leads to Libya.In 2011, NATO bombed the country in violation of international law and in abuse of a UN Security Council resolution.Thousands are killed.Hundreds of thousands are forced to flee.A delegation from the African Union, which wanted to mediate in the conflict, was even prevented from landing.What remains is a devastated country, parts of which are ruled by Islamist militias.As a result, the entire Sahel region is destabilized by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS). The individual members of NATO must take responsibility for this catastrophe.Totum pro parte, the whole stands for the part.This also applies to the member states that are not directly involved in the attacks.

The myth of democracy and the rule of law

NATO members are determined to “safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their peoples, based on the principles of democracy, liberty of the person and the rule of law”, according to the legitimizing legend of the founding charter.But this was already an outright lie in 1949.It is not only in Latin America that the USA has been making pacts with dictatorships and fascist regimes from the outset; NATO allies in Europe are not only democracies on board either. The only decisive factor is the willingness to join a front against the Soviet Union.The USA has bilateral security agreements with the fascist dictator of Spain, Francisco Franco, and the fascist dictatorship of Portugal is a founding member of NATO.While the secret police of the dictator António de Oliveira Salazar tortured opposition members to death and set up concentration camps in the Portuguese colonies, the USA included Portugal in the community of democrats.

Another example is Turkey. Thousands of political prisoners are tortured after the military coup of 1980. On the occasion of the tenth anniversary on September 12, 1990, the newspaper Cumhuriyet spoke of 65,000,000 political arrests, 7,000 death sentences requested, 571 imposed and 50 carried out, and the proven death by torture in 171 cases.Turkey remains a member of NATO. Even after the military coup, it receives extensive military aid from the USA and its allies.The rule of the generals is not detrimental to membership.The same applies to Greece.The military coup of 1967, concentration camps and murders of members of the opposition, the arrest of thousands or expulsion into exile – none of these are reasons to end membership.Even the invasion of Cyprus by NATO member Turkey in 1974 following the coup by the Greek colonels is apparently in line with the democratic founding consensus of the military alliance.

Now one could dismiss this and refer to the “tempi passati”, the times gone by.But even in 2024, support for Islamist terrorism by Erdogan’s autocracy is not in contradiction to NATO membership.After all, NATO is not about democracy and the rule of law, but solely about geopolitical allegiance to the USA. Like an empire built on lies, NATO lives from this fairy tale. In schools and universities, these lies are part of the NATO education program.

The myth of a community of values

“Our common values – individual freedom, human rights, democracy and the rule of law – unite us.” This is how NATO presents itself as a community of values in its Strategic Concept 2022. However, the renowned Brown University in Rhode Island, USA, estimates that four and a half million people have died as a result of the wars waged by the USA and its allies in the past 20 years alone.

This cannot be reconciled with NATO’s widely publicized self-image.

NATO is not a community that protects human rights.On the contrary: NATO is the protective umbrella for the human rights violations of its members.And by no means only with regard to the violation of social human rights under the dictatorship of massive armament.On the contrary, NATO pursues a policy of complete impunity for war crimes committed by its member states.Anyone who, like the Australian journalist Julian Assange, dares to make these war crimes public is tortured and threatened with 175 years in prison in the USA.There have been no serious interventions by other NATO governments to secure the release of Julian Assange. In hasty complicity, criticism of the US hegemon is being avoided.

The “Afghanistan War Diary” collection of documents published by Assange in 2010 proves the existence of a secret US force, known as “Task Force 373”, which was used to kill suspected Taliban leaders without legal recourse. The 300-strong elite unit was also stationed in the area controlled by the German Armed Forces in Afghanistan.It was under the direct command of the US government and, according to reports published by the Wikileaks whistleblowing platform, also used internationally banned cluster bombs to kill and destroy indiscriminately.(…)

On January 11, 2002, the USA set up a prison camp at the illegally occupied Guantanamo Bay naval base in Cuba.Amnesty International writes: “Many of the approximately 780 people who have since been deliberately detained there outside any judicial control have suffered the most serious human rights violations before or during their detention – including torture and enforced disappearances.To this day, torture survivors in Guantánamo are held indefinitely without adequate medical care, charges or fair trials.”Even 22 years after its establishment, there is no prospect of the Guantánamo torture camp being closed.(…)

Human rights have a very low priority for NATO.This is also reflected in the choice of alliances by NATO members.For example, the USA, Great Britain and Germany are arming the dictatorship in Saudi Arabia, which is beheading opposition members by the dozen and whose Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman allegedly personally ordered the sawing up of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Consulate General in Istanbul.

Rhetorically, NATO remains antithetically tied to its practice. NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept states: “We will strengthen our unity, cohesion and solidarity by building on the enduring transatlantic bond between our nations and the strength of our shared democratic values.”

In view of the close alliances with dictators, autocrats and violators of international law, this self-assurance looks like a bad joke. This hypocrisy is accompanied by double standards: In its Strategic Concept of June 20, 2022, NATO accuses Russia of committing “repeated violations of international humanitarian law” in Ukraine. While NATO uses this as an additional justification for its proxy war against Russia, it supports Israel in its obvious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza and assures the country of its full solidarity. With its veto in the UN Security Council, the USA is preventing any resolution for an immediate ceasefire until the end of March. Without the arms supplies from the NATO states USA, Germany and Great Britain, this war would not be possible.

In the Global South, this double standard of the West is being increasingly criticized. The human rights rhetoric of NATO states is seen there as purely instrumental in order to conceal or enforce their own geopolitical interests. NATO appears to be the guardian organization of a deeply unjust world order with neo-colonial tendencies. This is demonstrated not least by the fact that NATO members attempt to impose their own policies on third countries such as China, Turkey or the United Arab Emirates in the economic war against Russia with so-called secondary sanctions, in violation of their sovereignty. NATO’s myths distort the view of reality. In order to find a way out of the current crisis, they need to be exposed. That is what this book is about. Today, 75 years after its foundation, the military pact is driving the world closer to the brink of a third world war than ever before with its global expansion and confrontations. This critical examination of the Alliance’s current actions and its crimes in the past is intended to create the conditions for thinking about alternatives. Alternatives to a NATO that relies solely on deterrence, armament and confrontation – and thus poses an existential threat to the peaceful coexistence of humanity.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/04/ ... s-of-nato/

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Macron Keeps Discrediting France By Making Mistake After Mistake On The Foreign Policy Front

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ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 18, 2024

At this rate, there’s no longer any credible chance that France will revive its independent foreign policy traditions after the five major foreign policy mistakes that Macron made over just the last two years. He’s dealt such damage to his country’s reputation that it’s impossible to repair as long as he remains in power.

France’s interception of Iranian missiles over Jordan earlier this month is Macron’s latest mistake that further discredits his country on the foreign policy front. Back in 2018, the French leader claimed credit for preventing Lebanon’s slide into civil war the year prior after its diplomatic intervention helped resolve the crisis that arose from former Prime Minister Hariri’s scandalous resignation while in Saudi Arabia. It was around that time in late 2017 that Macron also started talking about building a European Army.

These moves made many think that France was trying to revive its independent foreign policy traditions, the perception of which was lent credence by Macron telling The Economist in late 2019 that NATO had become brain-dead. America later took its revenge on France by poaching a multibillion-dollar nuclear submarine deal from it with Australia two years later in order to create AUKUS. The divergent foreign policy visions between these two over the five years from 2017-2021 had clearly become a trend.

That began to change after the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine broke out half a year later in early 2022, however, since France immediately jumped on the American bandwagon by sanctioning Russia and arming Ukraine. That was Macron’s first major foreign policy mistake since it discredited the perception that he worked to build from 2017 onward of France reviving its independent foreign policy traditions under his leadership.

All the while, the Achilles’ heel of this approach remained Africa, where France continued lording over its former imperial subjects through a crude form of neocolonialism that retarded their socio-economic development. There wasn’t much dynamism on this front until 2022-2023 after the respective patriotic military coups in Burkina Faso and Niger combined to liberate the Sahel from France’s “sphere of influence”, prior to which Macron could have reformed this policy in order to preemptively avert that.

Therein lies the second of his major foreign policy mistakes since failing to treat these countries with the respect that they deserve, especially by not offering emergency aid to help them manage the domestic crises brought about by the West’s anti-Russian sanctions, ultimately spelled the end of “Françafrique”. France could have instead promulgated a truly independent foreign policy there designed to retain its historical influence in modern-day conditions that would have enabled it to better compete with Russia.

The panic that France’s retreat from the Sahel provoked in Paris prompted Macron to compensate by trying to carve out a “sphere of influence” in the South Caucasus centered on Armenia. To that end, his country joined the US in trying to poach Armenia from the CSTO by exploiting false perceptions of Russia’s unreliability. This information warfare narrative was aggressively promoted inside Armenian society by the ultra-nationalist diaspora lobby based in France (Paris) and the US (California).

While this was successful in the sense that Armenia froze its participation in the CSTO and has decisively pivoted towards the West, from whom it’s now seeking “security guarantees”, it was arguably a pyrrhic victory for France because it ruined relations with Turkiye. Seeing as how that country commands immense influence across the Islamic World, France’s pro-Armenian policy can therefore be considered to be Macron’s third major foreign policy mistake since it negatively affected how Muslims view France.

As for the fourth one, this concerned his threat in late February to carry out a conventional military intervention in Ukraine, which he specified could occur around Kiev and/or Odessa in the event that Russia achieves a breakthrough across the front lines sometime later this year. The reason why this can be considered a major foreign policy mistake is because it instantly exposed the deep divisions within NATO over this scenario after many leaders condemned his reckless claim that it “can’t be ruled out”.

He evidently thought that presenting France as extremely hawkish on Russia would appeal to the Western elite and their society, but the exact opposite ended up happening after they reacted with appall. Far from looking like a leader, France looked like a loose cannon that risked sparking World War III by miscalculation, with some worrying that Macron’s infamous ego was finally becoming a danger to all. These newfound perceptions understandably discredited France in the eyes of its allies.

And finally, the fifth and last major foreign policy mistake thus far was when Macron ordered his pilots in Jordan to intercept some of the missiles that Iran launched against Israel as retaliation for the bombing of its consulate in Damascus. In doing so, he dealt a deathblow to France’s soft power in the Islamic World, which he’d work so hard to improve after his diplomatic intervention in Lebanon in late 2017. By openly siding with Israel, Macron also risks provoking the wrath of French Muslims.

This demographic is easily mobilizable and has a track record of disrupting society with the large-scale protests that their community leaders have organized on various pretexts over the years. They’re also an important voting bloc too, those among them that are citizens that is, which could greatly impede his ability to appoint a successor once his second term expires in 2027. French Muslims might vote for other candidates and therefore reduce the chances that Macron’s preferred one makes it to the second round.

Macron’s spree of major foreign policy mistakes might not only be due to him personally but could also be at least partially attributable to systemic factors. The Valdai Club published their study on “Crafting National Interests: How Diplomatic Training Impacts Sovereignty” last month, which argues that the reforms implemented under his administration risk diminishing the role of national diplomatic traditions. In practical terms, national functionaries are transforming into global ones, or basically US puppets.

After all, while Macron has the final say on foreign policy, he’s also advised by diplomatic experts on the best possible approach for advancing French interests in any given situation. Instead of conceptualizing these interests as national ones like they did early on in his presidency during the 2017 Lebanese crisis prior to his early 2022 reforms, the year in which everything began going downhill, they began to conceptualize them as inextricable from the Collective West’s. This amounted to a cession of sovereignty.

The end effect was that France enthusiastically joined NATO’s proxy war on Russia, lost its “sphere of influence” in the Sahel, ruined relations with Turkiye (which were already weakened due to Macron’s prior controversies) by allying with Armenia, lost the trust of NATO allies by revealing details about their secret debates over conventionally intervening in Ukraine, and discredited itself before all Muslims by openly siding with Israel against Iran upon shooting down the latter’s incoming missiles over Jordan.

At this rate, there’s no longer any credible chance that France will revive its independent foreign policy traditions after the five major foreign policy mistakes that Macron made over just the last two years. He’s dealt such damage to his country’s reputation that it’s impossible to repair as long as he remains in power. Even worse, he’s whacking a hornet’s nest at home by risking more Muslim-driven unrest over his hardcore pro-Israeli policies, all of which bodes ill for France’s future over the coming years.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/macron-k ... ing-france
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Fri Apr 19, 2024 2:53 pm

Can a New German Party Steer the European Left in a More Effective Direction?
Posted on April 17, 2024 by Conor Gallagher

The German political establishment is so gripped by paranoia over Russia that Chancellor Olaf Scholz is now being compared to Neville Chamberlain:


This is the environment in which German opposition figure Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party will test its platform in the June European Parliament elections. (It will also get to measure its appeal in state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in the fall.) A key part of that platform is opposition to war against Russia, which Wagenknecht made clear in a recent Bundestag speech: https://twitter.com/i/status/1769376253859987917

Aside from Ukrainians, the war against Russia has arguably hurt working class Germans more than anyone else. Despite that fact, Wagenknecht is labeled a “Putin appeaser” and one with “sympathies towards Russia” for her opposition.

It’s also means that how the party steered by Wagenknecht – Reason and Justice (BSW) – fares in the European elections, and what it does afterwards will be interesting to watch.

BSW is projected to become the largest left delegation within the European Parliament after the June vote, and she is reportedly planning an attempt to form a new parliamentary group – one that could effectively demolish the existing moribund Left Group.

The Wagenknecht Platform

Wagenknecht’s “left-wing conservativism” would mean a left less focused on identity issues while prioritizing working class economic issues. While not opposing immigration on any racial grounds, she acknowledges voters’ concerns that too much immigration can be problematic: “​​people are experiencing a lack of housing, teachers are overworked, children can’t speak German and there are cultural conflicts.”

Wagenknecht gets a lot of criticism for her stance on immigration, but the fact is that’s what German voters are most concerned about:

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And it’s what has led to the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party that has fascist elements at its core:

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Both the AfD and Wagenknecht’s BSW are in favor of reclaiming German sovereignty from the EU and the US/NATO and acting in Germany’s national interest, which would mean ending its participation in the economic war against Russia that has done far more damage to Germany. They also both favor rethinking German immigration policy.

The struggle for Wagenknecht is drawing distinctions between the two parties. To do so, BSW is focusing on three lines of attack:

*That BSW is the true representative of the working class while AfD opposes globalists in favor of a more national oligarchy. (The AfD, after all, did receive its seed money from a Nazi billionaire family.) BSW likes to point out AfD’s hypocrisy in supporting the recent farmers protests in Germany while the party’s program simultaneously calls for removing farmer subsidies. “This is not an anti-system party. It is the system, but undemocratic and mean,” says BSW General Secretary Christian Leye.
*That the AfD opposes immigration on racial grounds that harken back to some dark chapters in German history while BSW wants common sense approaches that would benefit the German working class.
*The BSW also describes itself as the only consistent peace party in the Bundestag. The AfD, on the other hand, is not at all opposed to militarization. In fact, the party calls for the full restoration of operational readiness of the German armed forces. The AfD’s problem is that the US/NATO exercise too much control over the German military without taking into account German national interests.

Here’s more on Wagenknecht’s European elections platform from Table Europe:

The leitmotif of the program is: “Less is more.” The BSW strives for an “independent Europe of sovereign democracies.” The integration of Europe “in the direction of a supranational unitary state has proven to be a mistake.”

The BSW wants to prevent wage dumping in the internal market and is calling for the introduction of a European minimum wage. A postulate that the Left Party also has in its program. The demand for an excess profits tax in the industrial sector and a reform of the debt brake is also common to both parties. The power of large corporations such as Google or Amazon must be restricted, said De Masi. The BSW is calling for an end to energy sanctions against Russia. They were not harming Putin, but Germany.

De Masi left out the topic of migration in his speech. The program remains relatively vague on the subject: illegal migration must be stopped and prospects in the home countries improved, it says. The right to asylum is not called into question. However, immigration should not overburden local capacities.

Who Supports BSW?

Mainly working class voters opposed to the Ukraine War.

The ZDF political barometer from February shows that while a little more than 50 percent of respondents rated their economic situation as “good,” just under one in three BSW supporters say the same. And nearly half of BSW supporters believe that they will be worse off in a year than they are today. At the same time, while a majority of respondents were in favor of supplying more weapons to Ukraine, among BSW supporters it was less than 40 percent.

If those numbers seem high, it’s probably a sign of the atmosphere in Germany where those opposed to sending Ukraine missiles capable of reaching Moscow are labeled Neville Chamberlain.

Plans are in the works for Wagenknecht’s party to form a left contingent in the European Parliament opposed to the Russia policy and steer it away from the party she left, Die Linke (The Left), which has completely collapsed after abandoning nearly all of its former working class platform in favor of identity politics in an attempt to appear “ready to govern.” Much like the Greens, The Left increasingly stands for neoliberal, pro-war and anti-Russia policies.

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To form a new parliamentary group within the chamber, Wagenknecht would need 23 MEPs from seven EU countries. Who are its potential allies?

BSW representatives have confirmed prospective talks with France’s La France Insoumise. Other European Parliament members opposed to Project Ukraine are possibilities. Slovakia’s ruling Smer party, for example, was recently suspended from the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats group in the parliament for questioning NATO and its social conservatism.

A hostile takeover of the current left delegation is also a possibility as there may not be enough MEPs to sustain two separate left-wing factions. According to The European Conservative:

Tactically, the German politician has not ruled out joining the current parliamentary Left faction—becoming the effective kingmaker within—and could simply be using the threat of a new group as leverage.

Regardless, Wagenknecht’s BSW will likely be another thorn in the side of von der leyen (should she remain as European Commission president). We could always use more of this:


Criticism from All Sides

Wagenknecht’s BSW doesn’t just get it from what’s now referred to as the German “center” (i.e., the parties of warmongers and anti-working class policies).

It also gets a lot of criticism from the left – especially on the immigration issue.

They say that Wagenknecht’s party is just another flavor of capitalism and criticizes the party for its declared willingness to work with other parties to advance its issues. That is not the solution; according to WSWS, it is the following:

The only way to oppose militarism, prevent a third world war and defend social rights is through the international mobilisation of the working class against capitalism. No problem can be solved without breaking the power of the banks and corporations and bringing them under democratic control. Such a movement requires the unification of workers across all national, ethnic and religious boundaries.

While this is at least genuine, the disingenuous criticism from liberal identity wings is that Wagenknecht is “anti-vanguard” for ignoring identity issues in favor of class-based politics. In their eyes this makes her right wing (and even comparable to Benito Mussolini). These arguments are representative of the fear that the return of a class-based left would crash the cushy party of a finance-centered political economy that is welded to the politics of recognition.

There’s an argument to be made that Wagenknecht’s brand of politics is one hope at containing the rise of the far right, and it’s one that Wagenknecht makes herself:

Wagenknecht also blames the government for the rise of the AfD. Any criticism of politics is immediately defamed as right-wing, as was recently the case with the farmers’ demonstrations. We already know this from the protests during the Covid pandemic. “If people have been told for years that any reasonable criticism is right-wing, then it’s no wonder that a right-wing party is successful.” The fact that the traffic light politicians are now taking to the streets at anti-AfD protests is absurd. “If they really want to weaken the AfD, they don’t need to demonstrate, they need to finally change their miserable policies.”

Not only is Berlin ignoring that advice, but the same is true across Europe where the overall picture is one of an ascendant right. Right-wing parties are expected to win the election in six of the EU’s 27 member states, including France and Italy.

It’s a strong possibility that a right-wing coalition will take the reins in the parliament for the first time in its history. There is however, a lot of variation on the right – especially on the issue of Ukraine. Some are true believers, others were against the EU/NATO before they were for it, and others still oppose the war against Russia.

The European Peoples Party, which is projected to remain the largest bloc in the parliament, is a major backer of Project Ukraine. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) is too. ECR is led by Brothers of Italy, Law and Justice in Poland, VOX in Spain, and the Sweden Democrats.

The opposition to Project Ukraine can be found on the right in the Identity and Democracy (ID) party, although it might be softening – at least in the case Rassamblent National:


Germany’s AfD and Lega in Italy continue to hold onto their opposition to the economic war on Russia and are constantly hammered by spooks, media, think tanks, and politicians over it. Nonetheless, ID, which also includes Geert Wilders Party for Freedom and Austria’s Freedom Party, is projected to become the third largest EP grouping, up from its sixth-place finish in the elections of 2019.

At the end of the day, the sad reality is that parliament has a limited ability to do much other than provide a facade of democracy. The parliament is supposed to act as a check on commission power. It has to approve legislation proposed by the European Commission, it can censure the Commission, and the European Council has to ‘take into account’ the result of the parliament elections to nominate the Commission president – although the latter process turned into a backroom disaster in 2019 when Ursula von der Leyen failed upwards into the job.

EU leaders dismissed all the parties’ candidates and surprisingly elevated Ursula von der Leyen, who had not featured in the race and was doing a poor job as Germany’s defense minister.

As president of the European Commission, she holds sweeping powers on a range of issues, including tech, healthcare and social rights. Recent polling shows that a majority of voters (63 percent) either view the Commission’s work negatively or have no opinion.

Nonetheless, von der Leyen looks like the odds-on favorite to return to the job and continue her reign.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04 ... ction.html

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The Formation of NATO: World War II Did Not End, It was Reconfigured, Directed Eastwards
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on APRIL 16, 2024
Rick Rozoff and Michael Welch

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Research News Hour. Interview with Rick Rozoff on 75th Anniversary of NATO.

Rick Rozoff is a renowned author and geopolitical analyst, actively involved in opposing war, militarism and interventionism for over fifty years. He manages the Anti-Bellum and For peace, against war website.

In the following interview, recorded on March 26, 2024, Mr. Rozoff talks about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) which he has opposed for decades, and where it is headed.


Global Research: It’s been said that the real reason an atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki was not really to end the war. The allied Soviet Union had said they were preparing an invasion in early-August 1945, so the US figured it would drop the bombs first and thereby send the message that they had won the war by forcing Japan’s surrender. But they were also warning the Soviet Union about their awesome arsenal that could be targeting them. I bring this up, because I suspect the role of NATO to defend the world from the Soviet threat maybe – may not be accurate either. There is another story behind building up NATO. What in your view is the real reason NATO came into existence?

Rick Rozoff: It was a shift in World War II where the Western powers, US, Britain, French Resistance and Free French and such like continued the War, but shifted from waging war against the Axis powers, Germany, Italy, Romania, and so forth, towards the Soviet Union. I mean, it’s quite simply that. And Dwight D. Eisenhower, who was, you know, the top commander of allied forces in Europe during World War II became the first supreme allied commander of NATO when NATO was set up in 1949. So, it was a very smooth transition, down to the very same, you know, top commander.

World War II did not, in that sense, end so much as it was reconfigured and directed eastward, that’s my read on it. And of course, it was 75 years ago next month that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was established, initially with 12 members. All 12 of which, with the exception of Italy, could lay claim to being on the North Atlantic Ocean, by the way. Italy, if you really wanted to stretch the point also, you know, through being in the Mediterranean which is an inlet of the Atlantic Ocean. Of course, now you’re looking – well, I don’t want to jump too far ahead – but you’re looking at NATO which has grown appreciably where the majority of its members are nowhere near the North Atlantic Ocean.

GR: So, basically you’re saying that – I mean, like the alliance, you know, to fight off Hitler, I mean I guess they felt they had a good thing coming, so… But, I guess there’s somehow that solidarity or whatever. Let’s just hold onto this and just direct it towards the Big Red Bear. Is that essentially what you’re saying?

RR: That’s exactly what happened. And they pivoted, to use the popular expression, on a dime. It didn’t take very long. Almost immediately after V-E Day and certainly after V-J Day, you know, Victory in Europe, Victory Over Japan that you alluded to, then the Soviet Union became the replacement for the Third Reich and Mussolini.

And so, the military apparatus that the United States had established during the years from 1943-45 in Italy and in Germany and France and then the Low Countries, Benelux Countries, then became the foundation for NATO which remained and remains to this day, by the way, where the supreme allied commander of NATO has always been an American general or admiral. So, that much has not changed from 1949, or for that matter from 1945, until the current day.

GR: So, during the Cold War, I mean, was there anything, you know, about NATO – because, I mean, you started criticizing NATO before the fall of the Berlin Wall as I understand it. So, what were you finding objectionable back in the Cold War era that set you off?

RR: I wouldn’t want to put too fine a point on this because I think, you know, it’s going to distract from talking about post-Cold War NATO. And there are people out there who may want to defend NATO up until 1989 or up until 1991, and my argument is really not with them so much anymore, because as interesting as that is, I think we have more pressing concerns to be honest, Michael. And I personally feel that it was meant as a display of American military might in Europe, not only against the Soviet Union, its allies, and Eastern Europe, but also against political parties in countries like France, Belgium, Italy, Communist Party in the first instance, that may have wanted to reach some rapprochement with the Soviet Union and the permanent deployment of US – and the US, you know, Sixth Fleet is still based in Italy. And the US still has nuclear weapons in five European countries and suchlike. But this is all the result of using NATO to position the US Military for a permanent presence in Europe, first of all against the Soviet Union, then again the Soviet successor state: Russia.

Yet also, you know, you mention nuclear weapons. I believe it was as early as 1951, which is to say, only two years after the founding of NATO that the US moved nuclear weapons into Europe, into Britain initially, under NATO auspices and why NATO continues to maintain tactical nuclear weapons in Belgium, in The Netherlands, Italy, Germany, and Turkey under what NATO calls “burden sharing,” or “nuclear sharing” arrangements.

GR: Well, NATO underwent a transformation after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of communism, because it otherwise would no longer have a reason to continue, but it did. What do you know about what the thinkers at the top were thinking? I mean, how and when did they come to the conclusion that NATO would now be an aggressive force behind human rights. I mean, subsequently attacking people in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Libya?

RR: The 1989 speech by President H.W. Bush in Mainz, Germany whence the expression – it’s actually sometimes published with – the expression I’m going to mention in a second – as it’s titled, “A Europe Whole and Free,” sometimes “Europe Whole, Free, and at Peace.” And this is after the, you know, the dismantling of the Wall in Berlin and the beginning of the reunification of Germany. So, the point is clear coming from Washington, coming from the White House, that Europe was to be “united,” — the exact word – there was to be a continental system, you know, if I’m not going too far astray, comparable to those of Napoleon Bonaparte, or for that matter, Hitler, that would unite the entire European continent under one military command.

That has been NATO’s objective since 1989. Certainly since 1991 with the formal dissolution of the Warsaw Pact which itself, by the way, was founded six years after NATO and in reaction to not only NATO being founded, but Germany, West Germany, the Southern Republic of Germany, being brought into NATO the preceding year. Contrary to the Potsdam, you know, Accords reached by Britain, United States, and the Soviet Union at the end of World War II.

So, what NATO has accomplished in the interim and is now going to celebrate in all its splendour in July in the United States in Washington at its 75th anniversary summit, is that indeed, the entire European continent, with the exception of Russia and Belarus, have now been brought under NATO command.

GR: But NATO is not just a military force. It seems to me it’s a parasite. There are components of NATO that involve industry and jobs and a whole economic and financial infrastructure has grown around NATO. So, there would be massive losses of jobs and a shrinking of a tax base meaning, you know, social programs as well would be compromised. Can you address these sorts of concerns about some who would resist ending NATO or getting out of NATO?

RR: I mean, you’re correct about the fact that the NATO countries – I mean, let’s look at some arithmetic: the annual collective military spending – this is official, right, through defence ministries and the Defense Department in the United States. It excludes, you know, a good deal other military-related spending. But the official numbers, with the US leading the way by a long shot to the tune of something like 68 percent, but nevertheless, NATO countries account for $1.3 trillion in military spending per annum. This is as compared to, for example, Russia maybe $60 billion, you know, a small fraction of that. The population combined or collective population, NATO countries, now with Sweden joining, is 1 billion. You know, Russia is 150 million, if I remember right. So, to place these matters in perspective.

The other thing that needs to be mentioned – and this is the NATO summit in Washington in the Summer – will be the second time a NATO summit has been held in the capital of the United States. That symbolism is not to be missed. There was only one other summit in the United States and it was here in Chicago in 2012. But the first summit in Washington, the first in the United States, was in 1999 to mark the 50th anniversary of the creation of NATO. This one will mark the 75th anniversary.

Fifty years ago – I’m sorry, not 50 years ago but 25 years ago in 1999, when NATO met in Washington Nato had 16 members. When it finishes its summit this July in Washington, it will have 32 members, which is to say twice as many as it had in 1999 when it launched its first full fledged war against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

In the interim also, starting in the 1990s – you read an excerpt which I assumed was mine, it sounded very much like mine at the beginning of the programme – NATO has, in addition to those 32 full members, partners in the neighbourhood of probably 40 officially. And if you want to include the fact that NATO considers the African Union to be a collective partner, it has a liaison office next to that of the African Union in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia. But officially, they have 40 members who, together with the – not 40 members, 40 partners – who, together with the 32 members, some of these are countries, are on all six inhabited continents, bar none. And as there are military personnel in Antarctica from NATO countries, you can throw that one in for good measure and all the continents in the world even have NATO presence.

That is something that is so historically unprecedented in scale and scope and ambition and nature, that it really puzzles me and I have to admit it makes me despondent sometimes that for 25 years I’ve been trying to alert people to this, to the scale of it. And I feel that people are either indifferent to it, they downplay it, they mock it. Global Research is not immune itself from running articles that suggest that, you know, NATO is a paper tiger, paper pussycat in one person’s parlance, and so forth. I’ll state my claim, and I hope I’m not wrong, that NATO is a deadly serious business and a real threat to world peace. And if it is, and it has been for the past 25 years, then I think the peace movement and other forces in the world have been grossly negligent in taking this one on.

GR: Going forward then, what would you assume NATO’s next targets would be if there’s no resistance? And you know, what kinds of – how do you expect their development to evolve over the next two or three years?

RR: You know, they’re very open about these matters. There’s nothing esoteric about them. Go to the NATO website. They have two features today and one is at the Moldova [SIC] solidifying its relationship with NATO. It’s going to join. But you know, as a precondition for joining, it cannot have foreign troops on its territory, nor can it have unresolved territorial disputes. And Transnistria, you know, fills, you know, both those – checks both of those boxes off. So, it would be necessary. And Transnistria is surrounded by Moldova in the West, Ukraine on the East, it would be necessary to expel the Russian peacekeeping force of the couple thousand troops, and then reincorporate Transnistria into Moldova in order for it to join NATO. But you know, those movements – that movement is well under way.

The general secretary of NATO, as you may know, has just recently made a trip to the three South Caucasus nations of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Armenia has suspended its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, I would argue justifiably, you know, given Russia’s unwillingness to defend it against attacks from Azerbaijan. And so, what are they doing? They’re wrapping up – they’re doing a mopping up operation. They are absorbing what’s left of the former Soviet Union, except for, at least the moment, Belarus and Russia itself. They’ve already incorporated, of course, some 15 years ago they incorporated – more than that, 17 years ago – they – 20 years ago they incorporated three former Soviet Union republics, you know, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuanian. They, you know, ensconced themselves deeply in the three countries I’ve just mentioned in the South Caucasus. Ukraine I don’t have to tell you about. And Moldova, that’s the former Soviet Union.

So, they have not only – there was a statement by George W. Bush during the round of massive NATO expansions in the early part of the century where, at one NATO summit, seven countries joined at one time. Again, that’s totally unprecedented. Two of those former Yugoslav federal republics and three of them former Soviet republics. There was a statement attributed to George W. Bush saying, “The Warsaw Pact has now become NATO, in fact.”

GR: Rick Rozoff, thank you very much for your intelligent and eloquent analysis.

RR: Yeah, I wish I had better news to bring you, my friend. You know, we sit back and we allow military monoliths of this scale to spread over the last, you know, 33 years and we effectively do nothing about it. You know, they’re not going to be held in check unless we hold them in check. And we have to sound the alarm that the existence of a military bloc of 70-some odd countries on all continents is something that really should ring some bells and really should raise some alarms and people should really commit themselves to looking into it and doing what they can to reign this thing in until it can be dismantled.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/04/ ... eastwards/

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The Dispute Between The Polish President & Premier Over Air Defense Has Geopolitical Origins

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ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 19, 2024

Regardless of which geopolitical vision wins out, the fact of the matter is that Poland is destined to play a role in “containing” Russia, the goal of which is shared by both partisan camps but differs in terms of how it’s implemented and how much autonomy Poland preserves.

Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk are feuding over how best to defend their country’s skies, with the first preferring to retain the Anglo-American Axis (AAA) as Poland’s top partners while the second wants to join the German-led “European Sky Shield Initiative” (ESSI). Duda also describ[/img]ed the ESSI as a “German business project” prior to Tusk declaring that Poland will join it with the intent of replicating Israel’s alleged air defense achievements. At the core of this dispute is geopolitics.

Duda is from the conservative-nationalist party that used to rule Poland prior to last fall’s elections while Tusk represents the liberal-globalist one that came back to power after then. The next presidential election won’t be until next year so the government is split between them till then. The conservative-nationalists envisage Poland leading the AAA-backed “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) as a means of restoring its Great Power status while the liberal-globalists want to subordinate Poland to German hegemony.

These divergent geopolitical visions account for why these Polish leaders have polar opposite positions on this sensitive issue. The report hyperlinked to in the introduction reminded readers that “While Mr Duda oversees the armed forces, decisions about arms purchases are made by the government, which Mr Tusk leads, and cannot be blocked by the president.” This means that Tusk has the power to radically alter Polish defense policy if he wans to and Duda can’t do anything about it.

At the same time, however, the report also cited the head of the National Security Bureau who “told reporters that he did not think there was a big difference of opinion between the prime minister and president on air defence and that if existing projects are combined effectively with ESSI, with the participation of Polish industry, Mr Duda would support this.” For as pragmatic as that might sound, it’ll be difficult to pull off, both for operational and financial reasons.

Regarding the first, it’s always easier for a country to operate an “ecosystem” of security products instead of a hodgepodge assembled from various sources, while the second pertains to what Duda said about how “We have been building an air defence system for years based primarily on the Patriot system, for the delivery of which we signed contracts a long time ago.” Purchasing German systems to pair with American ones would be confusing for servicemen and a waste of money just to make a point.

It's unrealistic to imagine that Poland would pull out of its previously agreed-upon Patriot deal with the US, hence why it’s assumed that Tusk’s government would still go through with it while also buying German and other systems as part of Poland’s participation in the ESSI. These additional expenditures would virtue signal Poland’s “return to Europe” after what the liberal-globalists have spun as its prior “eight years of isolation” under their conservative-nationalist rivals.

In the event that the liberal-globalists perpetuate their rule over Poland, German and other non-American equipment could eventually replace US wares as the country becomes more dependent on Berlin. The geopolitical consequence would be that German hegemony over Poland would deepen, thus culminating in the EU’s de facto leader exploiting Poland as a vassal state whose function would be to “contain” Russia in Central & Eastern Europe as a permanently subordinated “junior partner’.

To be sure, Poland would play a similar role vis-à-vis Russia if it retained the AAA as its top air defense partners and hadn’t ever subordinated itself to German hegemony, but the difference is that it would be comparatively more autonomous on the European stage in the conservative-nationalists’ scenario. Under the liberal-globalists’ one, Poland is simply a neighboring appendage of Germany instead of providing faraway partners with irreplaceable strategic reach up to their Russian rivals’ doorstep.

This difference is more significant than it might seem to observers since the aspiring German hegemon takes Poland for granted and wants to subordinate it while the AAA appreciates the role that it plays for their grand strategy and therefore rewards it with comparatively more autonomy. Each set of relations is driven by the interests of Poland’s partners: Germany needs a Polish vassal state in order to become a superpower while the AAA needs an autonomous Poland to improvise with “containing” Russia.

Regardless of which geopolitical vision wins out, the fact of the matter is that Poland is destined to play a role in “containing” Russia, the goal of which is shared by both partisan camps but differs in terms of how it’s implemented and how much autonomy Poland preserves. No “third way” is politically viable since relevant parties remain unpopular as proven by the latest elections, and external influence is too deeply entrenched for Poland to extricate itself from, so a “patriotic solution” to this dilemma is unlikely.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-disp ... -president

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Croatian Democratic Union secures most mandates in parliamentary elections

The Croatian Democratic Union secured the most mandates in the parliamentary elections on April 17, outpacing center and green options. The results of the election suggest a likely shift to the right

April 18, 2024 by Ana Vračar

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Sandra Benčić (Možemo!/Greens) addressing supporters during the night of the parliamentary elections on April 17, 2024

In March 2024, Croatian president Zoran Milanović announced the date for parliamentary elections, the first of three electoral processes to take place this year. Speaking at a press conference on the same day, Milanović said that “waves of justice” were coming for the government led by Andrej Plenković of the Croatian Democratic Union (Hrvatska demokratska zajednica, HDZ), which had been marked over the past eight years by scandals and allegations of corruption. What Milanović expected to be waves, however, turned out to be ripples: on April 17, HDZ secured the most votes, winning 61 mandates.

This marks the third consecutive time that HDZ has emerged as the relative winner of the parliamentary elections, followed by a coalition led by the Social Democratic Party of Croatia (Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske, SDP), which won 42 mandates, and the far-right Homeland Movement (Domovinski pokret, DP), which secured 14 seats in parliament. Next in line are another conservative option, Most, and the green platform Možemo!, which won 11 and 10 mandates, respectively.

On April 17, many voters came to the polls and found out that they were missing from the official registers. The National Electoral Commission attributed this to an error in the registration system, but opposition parties and voters alike called this out as a potential attempt of manipulation.

Overall, the outcomes of the election are hardly surprising, considering HDZ’s dominance in parliamentary politics since the early 1990s and the widespread network of dependents it has all over the country. Opposition parties attributed HDZ’s previous electoral victories to this clientelistic network: in combination with traditionally low voter turnout, the party was able to capitalize on its many dependents to win the votes necessary, the opposition reasoned. In the most recent election, therefore, one of the most significant strategies of the opposition was to ensure that as many people as possible came to the polls.

On election day, the turnout was indeed what the opposition parties were hoping to achieve, amounting to 62.3%—a significant improvement since 2020, when it fell below 50%. Yet the results did not meet the expectations of the social democrats and the greens, indicating that there might be more to HDZ’s electoral victories than voters’ lethargy.

However, the results are not simply an outcome of a gross underestimation of HDZ’s mobilization capacities. They are also related to the current electoral system, which is shaped to benefit the same party. The country is currently divided into 10 electoral districts that do not reflect the standard boundaries of geographic or administrative regions—but ensure that places which usually vote for parties other than HDZ are merged with those with a strong HDZ presence, impacting the final results.

For example, if one looks at the total number of votes received by the social democrats and the greens on the national level, one finds that, together, they received more votes than HDZ—721,500 compared to 697,800. Yet, combined, they barely match HDZ’s number of mandates in the parliament. This discrepancy occurred because of the distribution of the votes, where SDP and Možemo! secured a disproportionate number of votes in specific units, which could not be translated into mandates, while HDZ’s numbers were more evenly distributed across electoral districts.

A second apparently misguided belief of some opposition factions was that the figure of the current president, Zoran Milanović, would be a unifying factor against HDZ. Since his election in 2019, Milanović has built up his public persona in confrontation with HDZ’s prime minister, Andrej Plenković. This approach brought him more popularity, yet also made him a controversial figure due to misogynistic comments and use of right-wing vocabulary. Shortly after he called for the election, Milanović also announced that he would be SDP’s candidate for prime minister, without giving up his presidential post in the meantime. This move, obviously relying on a significant shock factor, added uncertainty to the parliamentary election campaign, with most still uncertain about what it would mean to have a president who is also about to become prime minister.

Three scenarios for a future government
The day after the election, another HDZ-led government seems to be the most plausible scenario, but the party will have to secure the support of another 15 parliamentarians to ensure a majority. In order to do that, they have two main options: entering a partnership with the Homeland Movement and/or Most; or securing support from delegates of a wider array of parties, who traditionally switch camps after the election. The latter option would be more unstable, but it would also entail fewer compromises for HDZ than the partnership with the Homeland Movement. In the other case, the content of the policies would almost certainly shift further to the right, encompassing the xenophobic and ethnic slurs that mark the Homeland Movement’s program and appearances.

A third option, which at the moment seems unlikely, but is still addressed by SDP and other center-to-left opposition parties, is the formation of a minority government by SDP, supported in parliament by all other options—center, right, and green. In that case, the unifying factor as described by Sandra Benčić from Možemo! would simply be keeping HDZ out of power. What that would mean for the content of the laws and policies, or the credibility of the Greens in the eyes of their own electorate, remains unspecified at this time.

Recalling SDP’s last stint in power in 2011-2016, it shouldn’t be taken for granted that such a minority government would bring significantly different content from HDZ. During that period—with Milanović as prime minister of the country—the SDP administration promoted a number of moves against the public and workers’ interests. This included the intention to sell off the national highways company, only stopped by a campaign in which many of Možemo!’s activists played an important role. It was also marked by disrupted communication with trade unions, with some trade unionists defining Milanović’s government as “the worst ever” when it comes to collaboration with workers’ organizations, not outdone even by HDZ.

In the short term, it appears that it will be impossible to avoid a further shift to the right or compromises that will mark the credibility of parties left to HDZ as the new government is formed. In the long term, it remains clear that the opposition must put much more effort into building its presence outside of large cities, seriously taking into account the needs of the working class and agricultural workers. In light of this, the most notable loss in this election might be that the only socialist parliamentary option, Workers’ Front (Radnička fronta), lost the seat it was holding throughout the past term. Without their presence in parliament, it is likely that reactions to the policies introduced by a new HDZ government will not include an explicit anti-capitalist stance.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2024/04/18/ ... elections/
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Wed Apr 24, 2024 2:21 pm

Macron’s Olympic truce call takes gold for western cynicism

April 19, 2024

In a crowded Western field competing for the dubious title, Macron takes gold for cynicism.

French President Emmanuel Macron wants a truce in Ukraine and Gaza for the duration of the Olympic Games in Paris this summer.

Macron said this week that his proposal is consistent with the ancient concept of an Olympic Truce when, historically, hostilities would be put to the side to showcase higher ideals of human fraternity and peaceful aspiration. In short, demonstration of the edifying notion that sport is above politics.

Russia responded that it was not against the idea in principle. However, Moscow pointed out that Macron’s Olympic peace idea lacks any practical details to vouchsafe a genuine initiative.

To put it more bluntly, the French leader has no credibility to proffer such a potentially important accord. His vague proposal is riddled with contradictions.

Only a few weeks ago, Macron was airing the idea of sending NATO troops to fight in Ukraine against Russia. He has not retracted that reckless provocation, which could escalate the conflict to a world war between nuclear powers.

Now we are to believe that Monsieur President is a tribune for world peace.

Paris and other NATO capitals are desperately pushing for more weapons to be sent to the NeoNazi regime in Kiev. The NATO proxy war against Russia is in its third year and is increasingly looking like a lost cause for Washington and its Western allies. Not one Western leader is prepared to give up the ghost of this bloody debacle to strategically defeat Russia by exploring a diplomatic solution to the war.

How then can Macron’s supposed concern for an Olympic Truce be taken seriously?

As for Gaza, France and its NATO partners have been complicit in sponsoring a genocide over the past six and half months. The Israeli regime’s massacre of over 34,000 Palestinians – a death toll that mounts every week – and its continuing starvation siege on the Gaza Strip are crucially enabled by the military and political support of the United States and the European Union.

As if that is not bad enough, France, the United States and Britain are de facto supporting Israel’s aggression towards Iran, as well as Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. The Western trio are helping Israel’s air defenses while at the same time condemning Iran and imposing economic sanctions. Their tacit involvement is green-lighting more Israeli belligerence and violation of international laws which is corroding the entire fabric of global security.

Given the appalling culpability of the Western powers in fueling these explosive conflicts, it is the height of duplicity for Macron to turn around and make his pompous proposal for a truce during the Summer Games being held in Paris from July 26 to August 11.

The real concern for Macron is to showcase France in all its presumed greatness in a worldwide spectacle.

The narcissistic Macron is driven by self-aggrandizing ambition and delusions of grandeur as a world statesman and the president who restored France’s international prestige. It is this same megalomania that drives his recent calls for greater NATO involvement in the proxy war in Ukraine. The former Rothschild banker and now Napoleon wannabe is a charlatan who is completely bereft of any principles.

Significantly, the opening ceremony for the Summer Games is planned to take place along the Seine River in the form of an extravagant regatta. This arrangement breaks with the modern tradition of all Olympics being opened in the main stadium that hosts the sporting events. The Stade de France is located outside the French capital. One gets the distinct impression that Macron wants the grand opening to be televised in the center of Paris simply for the purpose of showing off the capital and its renowned cultural landmarks.

For Macron, the quadrennial games are first and foremost all about displaying France in the best possible light to the world for political and commercial exhibition. The games themselves are a vehicle for his vainglorious ambitions.

The truth is the Olympic Games and other international sporting events have long been hijacked by Western politics for their imperialist agenda.

When the U.S. and its NATO allies were waging illegal wars in countless countries in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, there were never calls for an Olympic Truce. There were never calls for banning the U.S. and its allies from participating in games even though there were substantial grounds for such calls.

Russian athletes have for several years now been banned from sporting events based solely on trumped-up claims about drug abuse and other alleged infringements. As our columnist Declan Hayes has pointed out in several articles, Russia’s figure-skating champion Kamila Valieva and its other world-class athletes have been subjected to relentless Western efforts to destroy their reputations and participation in “NATO sporting circuses”.

Shamefully, the Western powers and their toxic mass media have done everything to ensure that politics are above sports. Sporting events have become just another adjunct of Western propaganda.

If Macron had any genuine motive for international peace, he would be calling for an end to arming the NeoNazi regime in Ukraine and advocating a credible diplomatic engagement with Russia.

If Macron earnestly wanted the Olympic Games to serve as an overture for peace and humanity, he would be calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and full respect for Palestinian national and human rights.

The Western-controlled International Olympic Committee has banned Russian athletes from participating in the games in Paris under their national flag. Their “concession” is that 40 Russian sportspeople may take part as long as they do so under a “neutral flag” and that they do not display any signs of supporting Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine. Why were such strictures not imposed on Americans or Britons during their criminal wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Russia is banned yet Israel is allowed to send a full team in national colors while it conducts the worst genocide in modern times. The Western hypocrisy here is absolutely revolting and self-indicting.

Like a Greek tragedy, the rampant cynicism and abuse by Western powers are destroying the Olympic Games, the very event that they are trying to monopolize for their nauseating virtue signaling.

In a crowded Western field competing for the dubious title, Macron takes gold for cynic

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... -cynicism/

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A Ukrainian Think Tank’s Survey Proved That People’s Views Towards Poland Are Shifting

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ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 21, 2024

If the Polish-Ukrainian grain dispute that’s caused by the former’s foreign-majority ownership of its industrial agriculture isn’t soon resolved, then mutual perceptions might unprecedentedly worsen.

Ukraine’s Razumkov Center think tank published the detailed results of their latest survey about the impact of foreign policy factors on people’s perceptions of various countries apart from Russia. The full report can be read here, but the present piece will only focus on what it revealed about Ukrainian attitudes towards Poland. Before continuing, readers might be interested in reviewing the results of these surveys from January and March about Polish opinions towards Ukraine.

Returning to the Razumkov Center’s survey, Ukrainians are more concerned Polish farmers’ intermittent blockades of the border than anything else, including partisan US disputes that continue holding up aid. 58.4% of Ukrainians had a quite (18.2%) or mostly (40.2%) positive attitude towards Poland as of late last month when the survey was conducted compared to 32.1% who had a mostly (24.5%) or quite (7.6%) negative one. The difference between the two categories was 26.3% while 9.5% struggled to answer.

To put that into perspective, 93.2% of Ukrainians have a quite (57.3%) and mostly (35.9%) positive attitude of Canada compared to 2.8% who have a mostly (2.7%) and quite (0.1%) negative one, which placed it at the top of the list. The US was slightly below the bottom half of the 16 countries surveyed with 80% of Ukrainians having a quite (43.6%) or mostly (36.6%) positive attitude compared to 12.9% having a mostly (10%) or quite (2.9%) negative one.

By contrast, Poland is second from the bottom between Turkiye and Hungary. Regarding the first, 68.3% of Ukrainians have a quite (20.2%) or mostly (48.1%) positive attitude towards it compared to the 18.4% of them who have a mostly (16.3%) or quite (2.1%) negative one. As for the second, only 29% of Ukrainians have a quite (8.1%) or mostly (20.9%) positive attitude compared towards it to the 62.8% who have a mostly (35.7%) or quite (27.1%) negative one.

The difference between the Canadian, American, Turkish, Hungarian, and Polish categories is 90.4%, 67.1%, 49.9%, 33.8%, and 26.3%, with all of them except for the Hungarian one having more positive views than negative ones. Another interesting point is that the gap between these two categories significantly narrowed with respect to Poland between the periods of May-June 20223, August 2023, January 2024, and March 2024 when the Razumkov Center carried out its four surveys thus far.

In the order that they were mentioned above, the differences were 91.8%, 89.7%, 75%, and finally 26.3%. The period May-June 2023 preceded the Polish-Ukrainian grain dispute, August 2023 was one month before September’s climax, January 2024 was the first month of returning Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s liberal-globalist coalition government, while March 2024 was one-quarter of a year into it. This suggests that the first farmers’ blockades only had a minimal effect on Ukrainian perceptions at first.

It wasn’t until the latest round of blockades, which included dramatic footage of farmers dumping Ukrainian grain, that public opinion began to decisively shift to the point where the difference between positive and negative views was compressed by almost two-thirds in just two months’ time. This represents the largest recorded change by far of any of the 16 countries that Ukrainians were asked to share their opinions about at the previously mentioned intervals.

It's important for readers to remember that the root cause of the Polish-Ukrainian dispute that’s toxifying mutual perceptions is majority-foreign ownership of Ukraine’s industrial agriculture, which Polish President Andrzej Duda drew attention to in a recent interview that was analyzed here. Moreover, many might have also missed Ukraine’s infowar campaign against Poland that was analyzed here, which attempted to smear it as a Russian-infiltrated society whose government is corrupted by the Kremlin.

From Ukrainians’ perspective, Tusk’s reluctance to use force against the farmers for reopening the border coupled with his government’s support for curbing Ukrainian agricultural imports (both of which are driven by domestic political considerations) lent (false) credence to the aforementioned perception. These developments alongside the dramatic footage of farmers dumping Ukrainian grain contributed to the noticeable shift in Ukrainian attitudes towards Poland over last few months more than anything else.

They had high hopes that the downturn in bilateral ties last year under the previous conservative-nationalist government would be reversed under Tusk’s liberal-globalist one, only to end up deeply disappointed after he caved in to domestic political pressure. He’s unlikely to reverse his position anytime soon after the conservative-nationalists commanded the largest plurality in this month’s local elections unless foreign pressure upon him to forcibly reopen the border becomes unbearable.

Even if that happens, it’s unclear whether it would positively reshape Ukrainian attitudes towards Poland. A lot of bad blood has already been spilt between the two countries’ societies over the past few months that won’t easily be forgotten. In fact, it could even provoke conservative-nationalist Poles into carrying out more public anti-Ukrainian displays that go beyond dumping that country’s grain, which could include organizing nationwide marches against Tusk on the pretext that he’s Zelensky’s puppet.

After all, the fateful decision to use force to disperse the farmers that are blockading the border would be done for the purpose of facilitating military aid to Ukraine, thus showing that he’d rather order the state to harm his fellow Poles than risk Ukraine being forced to compromise with Russia. Nevertheless, if the Polish-Ukrainian grain dispute that’s caused by the former’s foreign-majority ownership of its industrial agriculture isn’t soon resolved, then mutual perceptions might unprecedentedly worsen.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/a-ukrain ... vey-proved

The Polish President Admitted That A Major Infrastructure Project Has Dual Military Purposes

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ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 24, 2024

Andrzej Duda inadvertently vindicated those Russian observers who long suspected that this transport megaproject right outside of Warsaw had dual military purposes, thus proving that they were right about Poland’s real plans all along.

Polish President Andrzej Duda revealed in an interview that the Central Communication Port (CPK by its Polish abbreviation) transportation megaproject outside of Warsaw has dual military purposes. He represents Poland’s prior conservative-nationalist government but remains in office despite the liberal-globalist opposition’s victory at the polls last fall since his term doesn’t expire till next year. Duda’s latest claim makes Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s decision to pause and audit the CPK even more scandalous.

It was analyzed here at the time that he was economically subordinating Poland to Germany after having already done so on the political and military fronts, which lent credence to conservative-nationalist chieftain Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s warning late last year that Tusk is actually a “German agent”. Tusk then subordinated his country to its neighbor on the educational, judicial, and diplomatic fronts, all of which is being done on the pretext of implementing various “reforms”.

The end result is that Poland now plays an indispensable role in Germany’s “Fortress Europe” that was elaborated upon here, but Duda’s unexpected revelation about the CPK’s dual military purpose might reverse some of the tempo by putting grassroots and external pressure on Tusk to approve the CPK. Most Poles are in favor of this transport megaproject according to the latest polls that Duda’s interlocutor cited, while the US has an interest in using Poland as an anti-Russian military launchpad.

Here's exactly what Duda said according to Google Translate: “It is no secret to anyone, and I emphasize this: If a situation of potential danger for Poland were to occur, and the relocation of additional allied forces to Poland would be necessary to defend our territory, we do not currently have an airport that would be able to provide such support for the West to quickly come to Poland.” This reminder is meant to imply that Tusk is harming NATO’s contingency plans for partisan reasons.

It’s also a dog whistle harkening back to what the former conservative-nationalist government’s Defense Minister claimed about his liberal-globalist predecessors regarding Tusk’s defensive plans during his prior two terms in office. Mariusz Blaszczak alleged that Tusk’s government planned to withdraw west of the Vistula River in the political fantasy that Russia invaded Poland until NATO reinforcements arrived and claimed to have the classified documents to prove it too.

Tusk’s previous time in power was marked by the arguably German-advised Russian-Polish rapprochement that was meant to create a “Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok” during the halcyon era of Russian-EU relations. Those hopes were obviously dashed as everyone now knows, after which Tusk’s conservative-nationalist successors never wasted an opportunity to speculate that his pragmatic policy at the time was due to secret Russian influence over his government.

Blaszczak’s allegation should be seen in that light just like Duda’s reminder should too. Their conservative-nationalist movement sought to exploit political Russophobia in Polish society ahead of the elections to remain in power, but even though that didn’t work, they haven’t learned their lesson and are now trying to employ it yet again in their attempt to return to power one day. That said, it’s indeed important for Poles to be aware of both facts, after which they can make up their own mind.

Revealing allegedly classified details about outdated Polish national defense policy is one thing, while raising awareness of how possibly canceling the country’s largest megaproject in recent memory could impact national security in theoretical contingencies (not to mention killing lots of jobs) is another. The first disclosure didn’t succeed in reshaping popular perceptions of the liberal-globalists whereas the second stands a greater chance of success of doing so even though it’s too early to conclude that it will.

Another point to pay attention to is that this isn’t the first time that Duda dropped a bombshell about a significant issue. Earlier in April, he told Lithuanian media that foreign companies own most of Ukraine’s industrial agriculture, thus confirming what had previously been reported but denied by the West. He therefore has a habit of being very candid about issues that he sincerely believes are of immense importance for Poland’s objective national interests.

Regardless of whatever the reader’s opinion might be about the likelihood of Duda’s scenario unfolding, which concerns Poland relying on the CPK to serve as the port of entry for a large-scale NATO intervention in the event of a Russian invasion, his point about that megaproject is militarily and strategically sound. It’ll be very difficult for Tusk to argue against it after he himself jumped on the Russia-bashing bandwagon since returning to power and continues fearmongering about its intentions.

He even jumped the shark last month by sensationally claiming that “we are in a pre-war era” that he compared to the run-up to World War II, thus suggesting whether sincerely or not that he supposedly believes that it’s possible for Russia to invade Poland in the coming future. If he ultimately decides to cancel the CPK despite Duda reminding him of its dual military purposes, then he’d discredit his previous fearmongering about Russia, which is the pretext for justifying Poland’s subordination to Germany.

Tusk’s hands might be tied, however, since the combination of grassroots and external (US/NATO) pressure might be enough to get him to reconsider weaponizing the CPK as part of his partisan war against his conservative-nationalist opponents under whom this megaproject was initiated. In any case, Duda inadvertently vindicated those Russian observers who long suspected that the CPK had dual military purposes, thus proving that they were right about Poland’s real plans all along.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-poli ... itted-that
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Mon Apr 29, 2024 1:23 pm

Austerity in the EU: How European bureaucrats serve America’s economic interests

Hugo Dionísio

April 24, 2024

Once again, the European bureaucracy is living up to the saying that “what has born crooked, late or never is straightened out”.

Once again, the European bureaucracy is living up to the saying that “what has born crooked, late or never is straightened out”. This is the case with the European Union, which was built as a political response to a reality that is no longer there — the socialist bloc — and which, when faced with the absence of its vital force, embarked on an erratic process of enlargement, aimed above all at provoking Russia, creating the conditions for NATO expansion and responding to the monopolies’ growing need for new markets and new sources of skilled and cheap labor, as is the case in Eastern Europe.

Within this framework and in response to the same needs, the EU is once again reissuing a recipe already widely known to the peoples of the South. While there is widespread recognition that the budgetary criteria contained in the Stability and Growth Pact constitute a stranglehold on public investment and is responsible for the short-term vision that has left the member states hostage to the financial authoritarianism of Brussels, at a time when the European bloc is losing more and more ground to the economies with which it has to compete, the unelected supranational power of the EU is once again proposing, this time to all Europeans, something that none of these peoples would ever vote for: austerity for the next four years (at least).

What appears on the horizon, without any in-depth national discussion, after being approved by the Council and the European Parliament, is a global austerity package, on a European scale, applicable to almost all the countries of the Union, which has been given the pompous name of “New Economic Governance Framework” and which is based on instruments such as the “Debt Sustainability Analysis” and “Specific Fiscal Plans” per member state, which will be developed within the framework of a 4-year adjustment period, which can be extended to 7. If the Stability Pact was not enough to bring most of the countries to austerity, this time EU autocracy is working to leave no one behind. Every country must bring to an end every evidence or memory that a social state has once worked with huge success.

That’s why we have to say that “it’s coming in handy”! At a time when countries should be investing absolutely decisively in industrialization, innovation and conquering a place at the top of the future technological chain, as China and Russia are doing and the US is going into brutal debt to do, what do the accountants in Brussels decide to do? Postpone the race, calling into question the targets they themselves have set for 2030 and 2050.

Once again, the story of the well-behaved and thrifty countries versus those that don’t know how to govern themselves is being repeated. But this time, with the exception of five countries (Cyprus, Sweden, Estonia, Denmark and Ireland), all the others will have to tighten their belts and cut 100 billion from their public budgets right in the first year of adjustment. Incidentally, 100 billion is more or less what the EU has offered the Kiev regime to date (in January 2024 it was 85 billion euros according to the Kiel Institute). And any of those lucky countries is important for the financing of the pluriannual European budget.

Assuming that this mass economic destruction is the continuation of a process that began with subprime, from which European economies had to pay for the losses of American banks, and continued with the NATO/Russia conflict in Ukraine, which has not only deprived European countries of important production factors, at a low price and with guaranteed quality and quantity… How should the European Union act, especially knowing that in Biden’s USA, the implementation of Inflation Reduction Act is well underway, with a vast investment program in key technological areas such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic panels and semiconductors?

How should European political leaders act if they look at China and see massive investment in key industries, mainly converting the economy from low-value to high-value-added industries; if they look at the US and see the same kind of investment, with total disregard for public debt levels, which have already passed 133% of GDP; if they look at Russia, India and see a desperate effort to make up for lost ground and join the developed economies? What would they be expected to do if they were concerned, as they say they are when they’re chasing votes, about health, education, housing, the digital transition and decarbonization? Would they bet on more economic austerity?

It’s incredible how the decisions taken by the EU’s bodies, whether by the bureaucratic European Commission, the European Council or the European Parliament, are deeply aligned with the needs of the US, on a path of increasing market appropriation that seems to have no end. If the US had everything to gain from the Ukrainian conflict, Europe had everything to lose, and what did the European autocracy do? It jumped in headfirst and mortgaged our entire future!

If this conflict has meant more arms sales for the US, Ukrainian land and property appropriated by the monopolies, the viability of the shale gas industry and “good jobs for American workers”, as Blinken says, for Europe it has only resulted in damage, well reflected in the sinking of the German economic engine, whose companies are now fleeing to the US and China. All under the guise of security against the evil Russian government or under the guise of “sustainability and growth”, as now with the approved austerity package. In the EU, the level of propaganda is absolutely proportional to the damage caused by its policies.

After all this, what would the US need now, given that it already has complete control over access to the European market and has managed to attract the majority of brainless national leaders to the “derisking” of China and the “decoupling” of Russia? What would interest the US more would be for the EU to give up on supporting the economy with public funds, to give up on decarbonization objectives and, with that, to give up on the development of digital and ecological technologies that could compete with American technologies on the European and international markets. If the US is so annoyed by China’s fierce competition, there’s nothing more useful than driving away another competitor, even more when it’s happy to do so.

It’s important to say that perhaps even the US didn’t expect so much. In one fell swoop, the EU itself is disarming the member states of the public investment weapon, which was already in question with the Stability and Growth Pact (which only made the European states relatively slimmer) and has now been increased with the new framework for EU economic governance. But they didn’t stop there. Being very well-behaved, the European technocracy has approved accountancy formulas that, above all, disarm the countries that are the economic engine of “European construction”. Thus, according to the rules laid down in this new fiscal adjustment plan, France, Italy, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands have to make the biggest budget cuts, between 6 and 26 billion euros a year. In other words, the countries that contribute the most to the EU’s GDP and multi-annual budget are precisely the ones that will cut the most. It couldn’t be better.

As a matter of fact it’s again the inevitable German finance minister, this time Mr. Christian Linder, who has been pushing this the hardest. Some say it’s that German inflation trauma from the First World War, but don’t be fooled. Germany is a fully occupied country and is today a deconstructed nation, with no will of its own and fully aligned with Washington’s strategies. Suffice it to say that its chancellor watches the destruction of the power source for its industry — the Nord Stream — and remains silent. Or what about his job as an errand boy on the trip to China? To say that he wasn’t even greeted at the airport by a senior figure from the Chinese state reflects his lack of importance and what the Chinese think today of the political class of — still is — Europe’s biggest power.

The truth is that, with the new economic governance framework, most member states will be forced to implement massive budget cuts. Debts will have to be reduced annually by 1 percent of GDP for countries with high debt (above 90 percent debt/GDP) and 0.5 percent for countries with medium debt (60-90 percent). The 3 percent deficit limit laid down in the treaties is complemented by the deficit resilience safeguard advocated by Germany, i.e. Christian Linder, which means that countries will have to continue reducing their structural deficits until they fall below 1.5 percent of GDP. It wasn’t enough that the 3 percent ceiling was tightened, now it’s even tighter. All because Mr. Linder, who has a degree in Political Science but is an economist by trade, says that “borrowed money cannot generate long-term growth”, which is technically incorrect.

If Mr. Linder were right, no company, family or organization would go into debt to invest. In fact, that’s the secret of capitalist banking. Taking deposits from those who save in order to lend them to those who need them to invest.

But there is one final proof that these financially authoritarian policies do not work, not even economically. The European budgetary rules that have been in force up until now and have presided over the euro crisis, have been incapable of reducing the debt of the member states, but have only contributed to reducing government spending and, as a result, causing domestic demand to fall, economic production to decline and, as we can see, increasing public debt. The same debt that is now being reduced, again, in the same way, using the same method.

As a result of this policy and the social problems that have been created and not resolved, we are once again living with the far-right extremism and fascism in our parliaments, in the mainstream media, in fake news and on social networks. The anti-science discourse has returned, but masked as pseudo-science, as we now see explained in this new fiscal adjustment promoted by the EU, to be applied at the worst possible moment.

So let’s see how these magnificent thinking heads work: if the 3% clamp hasn’t worked, has destroyed value, contracted the European economy and created social problems, from which far right bigotry and fascism have climbed, what do they do? They apply the tourniquet even harder! Can anyone understand something like this? If in the first round the patient almost died, in this round he must die for good. It’s a kind of “Big Brother” version on a European scale of Michael Hudson’s excellent book “Killing The Host — how financial parasites and debt bondage destroy the global economy”.

There are many lessons to be learned from all this madness:

What is happening to Argentina under Milei (what happened to Chile under Pinochet), which has increased poverty by more than 50%, kept inflation sky-high and only given the richest people a windfall, has more admirers in Europe than some want to admit;
Today, the political parties that constitute the European power house are the parties of submission and, in essence, they don’t differ from each other (apart from the members of “The Left” group and the “Greens”, all the other main groups voted in favor of this disaster);
European economic policy is currently an extension of US economic policy, but not from a constructive perspective, but from a destructive one, in order to leave space for the former to fill;
The social, environmental and political results of these authoritarian financial policies are preventing member states from developing their living and working conditions and are increasingly threatening the welfare state and the way of life that remains;
In view of the known results of these policies, insisting on deepening them means agreeing with their results, regardless of the discourse that may be adopted afterwards;
Once again, the European Union appears to be a hostage of the globalist and North American financial conglomerates, which make the loan sharking of states one of their preferred accumulation strategies, demonstrating that it is not the European dimension that saves us from this kidnapping, but the political will that does not exist;
It also proves that the European Union is more of an anchor that hinders the development of states today, rather than a driver of their development.
This deeply damaging recipe, tried out on a case-by-case basis during the sub-prime crisis, is now moving from its case-by-case, one-off phase, where it was tried out and perfected, to its global application, becoming official EU policy. If in the first phase it was the member states themselves and their governments that were blamed as bad managers and spendthrifts, which had a damaging effect on the quality of Western democracies, this time the blame will be put on the “European rules”, which will aggravate people’s sense of powerlessness and with it their frustration. This frustration will tend to feed, first and foremost, neo-fascist demagoguery.

This effect is undeniable and is the result of the various shocks the EU has received and the effects these shocks have had on the deterioration of people’s living conditions. The fact is that when we look at the IMF’s own growth forecasts, of the entire West, the EU grows the least (with forecasts of 0.8% for 2024 and 1.2% for 2025). Russia, the USA and especially China and India are growing more, much more.

If history tells us that the “minimal state”, contraction, austerity, prevent growth, development, and only have the effect of accelerating the concentration of wealth at the top, there is no argument that can be made in favor of this austerity plan. Managing according to possibilities only leads us to shrink, to cowardice, to smallness. Managing according to needs makes us grow, take risks and go further. This courage, this vision, does not exist in the politics of the member states, and even less so at European level.

It’s easy to cut and drop, what’s difficult is to make it grow, when everything would lead you to believe that you could only cut. Today, in the EU, we are cutting straight across the board. The more Europe needs investment, the more it is guaranteed that it won’t, demonstrating that there is no European measure that doesn’t fit the American form.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... interests/

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Poland’s Implied Plans To Deport Draft-Eligible Ukrainian Men Could Push It Into A Recession

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ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 29, 2024

Poland’s Ukrainian labor loss will be Germany’s gain, which represents another way in which the former has become indispensable to fueling the latter’s superpower trajectory.

Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz’s implied plans to deport draft-eligible Ukrainian men could be the straw that breaks Poland’s back and pushes it into recession. Preliminary government statistics from February showed that GDP growth over the past year was just 0.2% compared to 2022’s level of 5.3%. Unemployment was only 5.3% in March though and 33% of the 525 employers surveyed by a reputable staffing firm in October said that they planned to hire in the first quarter of 2024.

The abovementioned hyperlinked report about last year’s measly GDP growth rate attributed it to inflation, which might become more manageable depending on the new coalition government’s policies, while the other statistics suggest a pressing need for more labor on the market. The state insurance fund advised last summer that Poland needs two million foreign workers in the next decade, or 200,000 a year till then, to maintain the current working-retired ratio after the birth rate plummeted 11% last year.

As it just so happens, Poland granted temporary refugee protection status to 950,000 Ukrainians since February 2022, an estimated one-fifth of whom are men according to the National Bank of Poland. That amounts to nearly the 200,000 foreign workers that Poland needs every year, who might now flee for Germany in order to avoid being forcibly deported to the front lines. That neighboring country’s Minister of Justice declared last December that it wouldn’t apply such a policy against draft-dodgers.

The Berlin Senate also told Deutsche Welle last week that Ukrainians can stay in the capital without a valid passport, though the outlet also noted that “All issues related to the stay of foreigners in Germany belong to the competence of the regional authorities”, so the policy might differ elsewhere. Nevertheless, the point is that draft-eligible Ukrainian men in Poland know that they won’t be sent to their doom if they simply move to Germany, which is courting foreign labor from all across the world.

It was perhaps after realizing the self-inflicted blow that the Defense Minister risked dealing to Poland’s already fragile economy that Interior Minister Marcin Kierwinski told national media shortly after that his country won’t deport those Ukrainians with expired documents. Be that as it may, many Ukrainian men might not want to risk their lives amidst these mixed signals, and those unmarried women who moved to Poland might relocate too in order to have a better chance of finding a Ukrainian husband one day.

Ukrainians can pick up Polish a lot easier than any other migrants apart from Belarusians, the latter of whom don’t have anywhere near as large of a presence on the labor market, which is why the state prefers hosting them to meet its labor needs over importing civilizationally dissimilar migrants. To be sure, they’re also recruiting workers from the Global South too, but that policy risks replicating the socio-political problems that Western Europe has already experienced over the past few decades.

By spooking Ukrainians through its implied plan to deport draft-eligible men, Poland also inadvertently risks exacerbating the trend of worsening mutual perceptions between their people, which readers can learn more about by reading the review of these surveys from Poland in March and Ukraine in April. Accordingly, it might become less likely than ever that Ukrainians – whether refugees, draft-dodgers, or economic migrants – consider moving to Poland, with many instead preferring Germany for good reason.

Poland’s Ukrainian labor loss will be Germany’s gain, which represents another way in which the former has become indispensable to fueling the latter’s superpower trajectory that was described here in mid-March. As Poland’s economy risks stagnation and potential decline if a recession soon follows the flight of nearly 200,00 draft-eligible Ukrainian men, not to mention other Ukrainians’ fear of moving there and consequently unbridgeable labor market gaps, Germany’s stands to fare comparatively better.

Poland’s growing labor shortage will hamstring its companies’ growth, thus creating more inroads for German ones in that market than they already have. If Poland stops growing, then this will also end the attempted restoration of its regional leadership that was begun under the previous government, which would lead to an even greater surge of German influence in Central & Eastern Europe. Left unchecked, Germany could become a superpower within a generation or less, and all without firing a shot.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/polands- ... port-draft
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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