Blues for Europa

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Mon Jul 01, 2024 2:00 pm

France heads to second round showdown between left alliance and far-right

The left-progressive New Popular Front struck a significant blow to Macron’s centrist neoliberalism, winning over 29% of the votes, trailing only 5 points behind Le Pen’s National Rally

June 30, 2024 by Peoples Dispatch

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon and members of the NFP addressing supporters. Photo: LFI

The far-right National Rally is in the lead after the first round of parliamentary elections in France. Marine Le Pen’s party and its allies secured close to 34% of the votes, largely aligning with pre-election polls. The New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire, NFP), a left-progressive alliance formed after the snap elections were announced by President Emmanuel Macron earlier in June, recorded the second-largest share of votes, approximately 29%. Macron’s liberal coalition lagged far behind at 21%.

The election on Sunday, June 30, was marked by the highest turnout since the late 1980s, according to analysts. The second round will be held on July 7, where run-offs between two or more candidates will determine who will represent constituencies without a clear winner in the first round.

To win in the first round, a candidate must secure over 50% of the votes cast, representing at least 25% of registered voters. In these elections, over 60 candidates were elected in the first round: 2 from Macron’s list, 21 from the NFP, and as many as 38 from the National Rally.

More than 500 seats remain to be filled in the second round, giving the left another chance to minimize the gap between them and the National Rally. The campaign is expected to become even more intense in the coming week, and protests denouncing the rise of the far-right have already begun.

Demonstrations protesting the rise of the far-right were reported in Strasbourg, Lille, and Paris, among other cities. In Paris, candidates and activists of France Unbowed (La France Insoumise) who are leading the NFP alliance, addressed the crowd, urging them to continue mobilizing in the coming days. “Tonight’s mood is not one of joy or sadness, but of struggle,” said Manuel Bompard, national coordinator of France Unbowed.

The impressive performance of NFP in these elections was seen as a triumph against the neoliberal, centrist policies of Macron which over the past several years have sparked massive street protests. The New Popular Front brings together the main left and progressive parties in French politics. This ranges from more radical forces like the Communist Party and Jean-Luc Mélanchon’s France Unbowed, to establishment parties like the Socialists and Greens. They have united around a progressive platform that stands in distinction to both the far right and Macron and includes lowering the retirement age, guaranteeing the right to housing for all, and curbing rising food and energy prices. They also have pledged to support the Palestinian cause and a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

At the rally on Sunday night in Paris, Mélanchon declared, “We are not here just to stand in the way, to stand up to anyone or to be against it. We are here because we want to change everything!”

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2024/06/30/ ... far-right/

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Torrential Rains Cause Massive Damages in Italy

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Effects of heavy rains in the D’Aosta Valley, Italy, July 1, 2024. Photo: X/ @ultimoranet

July 1, 2024 Hour: 8:57 am

The stormy weather led to intense flooding and extensive landslides in the Alpine Aosta Valley region.

Over the weekend, Italy suffered massive damages and disruptions after exceptional downpours battered its northwestern regions. The stormy weather led to intense flooding and extensive landslides in the Alpine Aosta Valley region, which borders France, particularly affecting Piedmont.

In the Aosta Valley, concerns centered on the town of Cogne and the renowned Breuil-Cervinia ski resort, Civic Protection chief Fabrizio Curcio told local media after an emergency meeting with rescue teams and regional authorities that extended into the early hours of Monday.

Since Sunday, both places have been isolated due to a landslide that severed the main road providing access to the region. In addition, the center of Cervinia was inundated by flooding.

Several other villages in Aosta Valley and Piedmont were also cut off. In total, around 500 people, including tourists stranded in resorts along the slopes of the 4,600-meter-high Monte Rosa, had to be evacuated by helicopters.


“Our current priorities are focused on evacuating those still in need to lower Aosta Valley, and on restoring the road system and essential services, including the damaged aqueduct,” Curcio explained.

In Piedmont, at least 480 rescue operations were conducted up to Sunday night, involving 100 staff and 170 volunteers from the Civic Protection, according to the latest data provided by the regional government.

Most of these operations took place in the provinces of Turin and Verbania, as well as the Canavese area bordering the Aosta Valley, according to the Volunteer Firefighting Corp involved.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/torrenti ... -in-italy/

Hungary Takes Over EU Presidency After Creation of New Far-Right Alliance

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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, 2024. Photo: X/ @EU_chronicles

July 1, 2024 Hour: 8:40 am

Prime Minister Victor Orban announced the creation of “Patriots for Europe”

On Monday, Hungary took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU) for six months. The day before, Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced in Vienna the creation of “Patriots for Europe,” a new far-right alliance, in the European Parliament.

He presented the alliance with Herbert Kickl, leader of Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPOe), and Andrej Babis, leader of the main Czech opposition party Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO).

Orban said the alliance, comprising his right-wing populist Fidesz party, FPOe, and ANO, would soon become the “largest group of the European right.” Yet it would need to attract lawmakers from at least four other EU member states to form a group in the European Parliament.

Austrian broadcaster ORF raised the question of how the National Rally (RN) of the French right-wing populist Marine Le Pen and Germany’s AfD party would react to the new alliance. The RN and AfD were recently excluded from the right-wing Identity and Democracy group in the European Parliament.


On Monday, Hungary’s European Union Affairs Minister Janos Boka outlined the seven top priorities during Hungary’s presidency, including enhancing the EU competitiveness, reinforcing European defense policy, EU enlargement, stemming illegal migration, shaping the future of a cohesion policy, formulating a farmer-oriented EU agricultural policy and addressing European demographic challenges.

Boka said these priorities reflect the will of European voters, stressing that the recent European parliamentary elections sent a clear political message that “Europe needs change.” He stressed EU competitiveness and European security and defense policy in particular. “Strengthening Europe’s peace and security are of paramount importance,” Boka said.

The motto of Hungary’s EU Presidency is “Make Europe Great Again.” Zoltan Kiszelly, director of the Center of Political Analyses at Hungary’s Szazadveg Institute, said that the central European country is expected to play a significant role in setting the agenda and topics for meetings and negotiations due in the coming months.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/hungary- ... -alliance/

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The EU ‘Doom Loop’: Bloc Set to Embrace More Austerity Despite Evidence It Will Cause Further Rightward Shift
Posted on July 1, 2024 by Conor Gallagher

As expected, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally came out on top in the first round of French elections yesterday, solidifying the country’s move to the right after the European vote earlier in the month.

The EU’s three largest countries by population and three largest economies – France, Germany, and Italy – are now all led by far right parties or on that path.

In France, Macron should get a thank you card for helping to make the National Rally’s victory possible:
France is a gruesome case study in how centrists acted as the handmaidens of the far right.

Under Macron, France became a cauldron of disillusionment which the far right fed off.

The centrists relentlessly focused on demonising the left. Behold the consequences.

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The story is the same across much of the EU as the centrists – as they call themselves – continue to dismiss working class voter concerns, pursue disastrous economic confrontations, and now appear prepared to plunge the bloc back into austerity in the coming months.

While the Davos crowd that runs the EU is still expressing widespread disapproval of voters’ choices following the recent European elections, and no doubt there will be more after the vote in France, they keep doing their best to empower the far right [1] with their choices of policy.

The effort to explain away the increasingly rightward shift of the European electorate typically blames the voters. Take your pick: media explanations range from lumping populism in with fascism to blaming the Covid lock downs(!), but they all strike the same note that it is not the people in power that need to change; it is the fact that the voters are dangerous.

Dismissing Economic Concerns

The media seems to be latching onto the fact that a larger share of younger voters swung right. And their explanations are variations of the same: they brush off economic concerns and emphasize the role of new media like TikTok, Twitter X, Youtube, etc.

Reuters declares, “With the leaders of Europe’s often upstart ethno-nationalist, anti-establishment movements mastering new social media better than their mainstream counterparts, they are earning cachet as a subversive counterculture among some young people.”

CNN gets bonus points for the now-common misuse of the term populism while also running through a range of economic concerns of younger voters only to brush them aside as the result of short attention spans and the failure to grasp the larger picture:

her center-right bloc secured the most seats in the European Parliament, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen took to the stage in Brussels to give a victory speech. But her tone was more somber than victorious. She spoke of the importance of defending European values: integration, democracy and the rule of law.

How do these abstract values sound to young voters?

“Young people will double check, does that help me with any of my needs? Does it entertain me? Does it give me security? Is it fun? And if it’s none of that, it’s boring,” said Schnetzer. “If you have this TikTok logic, you’ll quickly swipe further.”


And CNN adds in a reminder of just how silly voters are for expecting anything to change:

Out of office, the far right is unable to break promises, while it can point endlessly to the mainstream’s inability to deliver. Once in government, it will prove just as disappointing.

Ignoring the people’s concerns is really the responsible course of action, they tell us.

Take Politico’s “Europe’s ‘foreigners out!’ generation: Why young people vote far right.” And the deck: “Their grandparents ushered in the sexual revolution. Today’s youth want to turn back the clock to 1950.”

In it, the reporters explain that the increasing number of young voters voting right is largely due to immigration backlash, but it’s not that simple. It’s also that the information they receive about the immigration debate is tainted by the nefarious influence of TikTok, and there’s the unexplained assertion that younger voters swung right partly due to “the isolation many youths suffered during the COVID lockdown years.” [2]

On voters’ concerns over economic policy, Politico explains that they are simply wrong:

In many ways, the surge in youth support is disconnected from reality. After hitting a high of more than 10 percent in October 2022, Europe’s inflation rate is now back down to 2 percent. The same goes for unemployment which, at 6 percent on average across the EU according to Eurostat, is far below the 12.2 percent average joblessness rate reached in 2013.

In other words, on the economy, migration and the effects of the pandemic, Europe has already weathered the worst of the storm.


In other words, nothing needs to change – well, almost nothing. If there’s one item on the to-do list, it looks to be that more censorship is needed as the blame for voters voting the way they did is being laid at the feet of social media companies like X and TikTok.

It seems odd to brush aside economic concerns in an EU that is dealing with an ongoing energy crisis, deindustrialization, and declining real wages. The European Trade Union Confederation, which represents 45 million European workers, recently found that real wages slid by 0.7% in 2023, after dropping by 4.3% in 2022. Those 2023 numbers include falls of 2.6% in Italy (currently led by the far right), 0.9% in Germany (far right gaining ground), and 0.6% in France (far right on the cusp of power).

And yet the elite conventional wisdom, represented by Politico declaring Europe has weathered the storm, is that this is all no longer a concern.

More Austerity on the Way

Another sign that the EU elite has learned nothing is that it plans a return to austerity starting in six months. Should it stick to that plan, it will force member states to start cutting spending under already-difficult conditions. There’s also the fact that there is a wealth of evidence that increased austerity leads to a larger vote share for “extremist” parties. You can go back as far as the 1930s to see the results.

A 2021 study published in the Journal of Economic History showed that voting data from a thousand districts and a hundred cities for four elections between 1930 and 1933 showed that areas more affected by austerity had more support for the Nazi Party. More recent research from May shows that 1930-32 “austerity shocks reduced German GDP by more than four percent and caused an increase in unemployment by almost two million, paving the way for the success of extremist parties.”

For something a little more recent, we have a 2023 paper, The Political Costs of Austerity, published in The Review of Economics and Statistics. It is authored by Ricardo Duque Gabriel from the National Bureau of Economic Research, Mathias Klein from the research division of Sveriges Riksbank, and Ana Sofia Pessoa from the University of Bonn’s Department of Economics.

In it the authors review more than 200 elections in several European countries, providing evidence of the political consequences of fiscal consolidations. The main takeaway is the following:

Fiscal consolidations lead to a significant increase in extreme parties’ vote share, lower voter turnout, and a rise in political fragmentation. We highlight the close relationship between detrimental economic developments and voters’ support for extreme parties by showing that austerity induces severe economic costs through lowering GDP, employment, private investment, and wages. Austerity-driven recessions amplify the political costs of economic downturns considerably by increasing distrust in the political environment.

Austerity will worsen economies that are already on life support in many areas of the EU. The decision to force countries to cut spending comes despite the main driver of increased government expenditures over the past two years being the need to deal with the energy crisis brought about by the elites’ decision to wage war against Russia. As the authors point out, “Austerity leads to a significant fall in regional output, employment, investment, durable consumption, and wages.”

Shockingly, voters react angrily to the willful destruction of their standards of living:

…people’s trust in the government deteriorates much more strongly during austerity recessions compared to non-austerity recessions. This might point toward a “doom loop” between distrust in the political system and more extreme voting following fiscal consolidations. In sum, austerity-driven recessions are special in the sense that they considerably amplify the political costs of economic downturns by creating more distrust in the political environment.

…in recessions coinciding with fiscal consolidations, a reduction in regional government spending implies a larger increase in extreme voting compared to lowering public spending in non-austerity recessions. These results suggest that austerity recessions are special in the sense that they considerably amplify the political costs of economic downturns.


The fact that the EU is granting a minimal amount of wiggle room on austerity requirements set to go into effect in 2025 might be an acknowledgment of this data.

For example, the new agreement stipulates that countries with a deficit above 3% of GDP are required to halve this to 1.5% but can do so during periods of growth. That growth might quickly evaporate with such a public spending pullback, but that’s the plan. Elsewhere, countries will still be required to reduce their debt on average by 1% per year if it is above 90% of GDP, and by 0.5% per year on average if the debt is between 60% and 90% of GDP. The new rules give countries seven years to get their spending in order, up from four previously.

And yet, these minor attempts to make the pain more palatable are unlikely to impress voters who will still see a reduction in quality in life. In some cases, it could be even worse than the Euro Crisis:
Do we properly remember the effects and political debates of €zone austerity?
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The “Doom Loop”

The great question is where will voters turn when austerity returns? The Political Costs of Austerity offers a somber possibility:

Our results show that fiscal consolidations are associated with significant political costs: a 1% reduction in regional public spending leads to an increase in extreme parties’ vote share of around 3 percentage points. The higher vote share captured by extreme parties coincides with a fall in voter turnout together with an increase in the total votes for these parties. Thus, in response to fiscal consolidations, fewer people vote and those who do, exhibit a higher tendency to vote for extreme parties.

This “doom loop” appears to be what is taking hold in Italy – which has been dealing with current EU-wide trends of austerity and declining living standards for decades. It is abundantly clear in recent votes empowering Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy (FdI) party. The number of Italians who have effectively given up on the system (51.66 percent) and chose not to vote in the recent EU election trounced those that support Meloni who got 13.89 percent of eligible voters. And it wasn’t just that it was an EU election; Italy’s voter turnout has been dropping in national elections for decades and hit a post-WWII low of 64 percent in the 2022 election that brought the FdI to power. And unlike parties elsewhere in Europe who were recently punished in the European elections over two years of a sanctions and energy policy that has hurt European workers, FdI came away in the top spot nationally.

France and Germany just saw very high turnouts, but how will voters respond if, as CNN claims, they are destined to be disappointed? Will it look like Italy where FdI’s success largely revolves around lower turnout and the successful blaming of – not the economic sanctions against Russia, not a disastrous energy policy, not the decades-long adherence to fiscal rules, not the decades of market-friendly reforms, not the decades of wage suppression strategy, not the decades of pursuit of more “flexible” labor – immigration for Italy’s problems.

Similar arguments are everywhere across Europe nowadays because it would be difficult for the Davos crowd to create an atmosphere more suitable for the rise of the right if it tried. They push an artificial scarcity of resources while immigration increases making it easy for the right to argue that those dwindling resources should be reserved for the native population and taken away from the immigrants.

So while some point to the increase in immigration:
Remarkable chart, within just a decade net migration into Germany has been 6 Million people. That’s more or less Berlin and Munich combined. Is it sustainable?
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What gets far less attention is that the EU’s own polling of bloc citizens shows that nearly 80 percent favor stronger social policies and more social spending.

CNN’s above prediction that the right will be unable to deliver any meaningful economic benefits to voters would appear to be accurate as even those on the right who would want to do so are constrained by the EU’s “tools.” Does that necessarily mean they will be voted out of power and Europe will see a return towards the center? Not necessarily. As The Political Costs of Austerity points out, it’s just as likely that the doom loop takes over, voters increasingly give up, and parties on the right redirect frustration with plummeting living standards towards other targets, such as immigrants (as Meloni has done) or other perceived enemies like, say, Russia.

So while much was made about the fact the “center held” in the most recent EU elections, the trend is clear – and one that is likely to only be sped up by more austerity.

So why is the EU’s ruling center seemingly doing all it can to help these forces on the right?

Are they oblivious to these concerns or do they simply dismiss warnings that conflict with their dogma? Is it hubris? Does the von der Leyen crowd think they can control the far right as they have done with Meloni and are attempting to do now with Le Pen?

A scarier thought is that the center welcomes alliances with the far right as long they’re the center’s kind of far right (i.e., pro-EU, pro-NATO, and anti-Russia + China). The responsible center can continue with its pet projects of war against Russia, censorship, and neoliberalism while the far right blames immigrants for the results of the former’s policies (66 percent of the EU working class feel their quality of life is getting worse).

Either way, the coming rounds of austerity should be clarifying if the EU doesn’t break in the meantime. Will governments like Meloni’s or the National Rally in France be punished if they enact harsh economic plans? Or will the doom loop only become stronger?

Notes

[1] Among the parties and candidates under that far right umbrella term, there are many differences – on Ukraine policy, for example, or the fact that some have softened their stance towards the EU and NATO while others remain “sovereignists.” The one trait they have in common, however, is that they are outside the respectable “center.”

[2] The Politico piece does later say the following:

Another oft-cited factor: COVID and the lockdowns that confined youths at a time when many were due to leave their homes to start university. The lockdown orders that were handed down by leaders across Europe within a few weeks in 2020 helped cement the idea that political elites were high-handed and insulated from the effects of their policies. Such grievances are deeply entrenched among right-wing voters in many European countries.

The assertion that these “grievances are deeply entrenched among right-wing voters” doesn’t explain why 2020 lockdowns swung 2024 voters to the right, however.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... shift.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:56 pm

Germany’s Grid Is Getting Greener as Its Industry Is Weakening
Posted on July 4, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. This post highlights the fact that Germany’s apparent improvement in its green transition is not quite what is seems. Even though the proportion of total energy consumption provided by renewable sources has increased, it appears that that improvement is due in large measure to a fall in demand from industry. The increase in clean energy production year to year has been comparatively modest.

Amusingly, the article acknowledges that higher energy costs are the reason for flagging manufacturing output, but curiously never mentions the destruction of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines and the Russian sanctions as the cause. In the meantime, OilPrice today also prominently features another story, European Reliance on Russian Gas Persists Despite Sanctions.

By Tsvetana Paraskova, a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. Originally published at OilPrice

Germany is making progress in boosting the share of renewable energy sources in its power supply.
The large cut to fossil fuel-powered generation was mostly due to lower total power output.
The grid is getting greener and emissions from the power sector are falling, but these developments have been mainly driven by anemic economic growth and weak industry in Europe’s biggest economy.


Germany is making progress in boosting the share of renewable energy sources in its power supply, but it should be applauded with a cautionary note because the bulk of that progress is because of weaker electricity demand amid sluggish industrial activity.

Power providers have drastically cut their total electricity output from fossil fuels so far this year. Yet, this reduction hasn’t been offset by a similar jump in generation from renewable energy sources, suggesting that the weak power demand is the driver of lower overall power output and reduced fossil fuel generation in Europe’s biggest economy.

Germany’s power producers saw fossil fuel electricity production drop by 19% in the first half of this year compared to the same period of 2023, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.

However, renewables power generation increased only by 2.1%

The large cut to fossil fuel-powered generation was mostly due to lower total power output, which was down 6% year-over-year between January and June 2024 amid lower electricity demand with weak industrial activity.

A rebound in said activity would boost power demand in Germany, and its power firms may have to resort to more natural gas-fired generation, offsetting some of the progress in clean energy supply to the grid.

Last year, wind power overtook coal to become Germany’s largest source of electricity, according to clean energy think tank Ember.

Germany relied on fossil fuels for 46% of its electricity last year; however, the single largest source of electricity was wind with a 27.2% share, ahead of coal with 26.8%.

Since 2015, Germany’s falls in nuclear – phased out in 2023 – and coal generation have been mostly met by higher wind and solar generation alongside net electricity imports and gas-fired generation, Ember’s European Electricity Review 2024 showed earlier this year.

Germany installed record-high power capacity from solar and wind in 2023, but only solar additions met government targets, while wind power installations fell short of goals. The new solar capacity is on track to meet the government’s 2030 goals. Wind power also saw an increase in wind power tenders, which awarded a record-high total power capacity of 6.4 GW last year, data from wind power association BWE showed at the end of 2023. Unfortunately, these were short of the 10 GW annual goal.

While the share of renewable energy sources in Germany’s gross electricity generation reached 53% in 2023, up from 44% in 2022, the country needs to accelerate solar, wind, and battery capacity installations to have renewables account for 80% of its electricity generation by 2030.

The grid is getting greener and emissions from the power sector are falling, but these developments have been mainly driven by anemic economic growth and weak industry in Europe’s biggest economy.

The high energy costs have been a key reason for weak manufacturing and industrial activity in Germany over the past two years. Energy-intensive industries, especially chemicals and fertilizers, have been hit the hardest.

“No other sector has been hit harder by the “new energy world” (lower absolute gas imports and higher energy prices compared to pre-war levels and compared to the US and China) than the chemical industry,” Deutsche Bank Research said in February this year, saying that the decline in Germany’s industrial production “is not over yet.”

The Federation of German Industries, BDI, is not optimistic for the near term, either.

Germany’s manufacturing output fell by over 7% in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to late 2019, before the outbreak of the pandemic, the industry body said in a report in May. The BDI expects industrial production in Germany to continue downward and contract by another 1.5% in 2024 year-over-year. In the two previous years, industrial production had fallen by 0.5% annually.

“The German industry has almost lost a decade’s worth of growth in production,” BDI said.

This weak industrial performance, partly due to high energy costs, has contributed to the decline in Germany’s electricity consumption. When industrial activity recovers, German power producers may have to crank up fossil fuel-fired power plants to meet demand.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... ening.html

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Sure, Sure...

... as if anybody cares what Berlin thinks.


Berlin must not back any call for a truce that would see Kiev admit defeat, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said. As Scholz took questions from members of the Bundestag on Wednesday, Left lawmaker Gesine Loetzsch asked about Germany’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the possibility of a ceasefire. “In my view, a ceasefire that involves Ukraine’s capitulation is one that we as Germany must never support,” Scholz replied, according to the state broadcaster Deutsche Welle. The German chancellor argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s truce terms amounted to Ukraine’s surrender, calling Moscow “cynical” and not interested in ending the conflict. “Putin only talks about peace negotiations in order to continue the war. We will not allow this,” Scholz said.

In related news, Germany is an occupied country and...


The Association for the German Language chose the term Krisenmodus as the ‘Word of the Year’ for 2023. I’m not sure they’ve ever awarded a back-to-back winner, but krisenmodus (crisis mode) looks to have a chance to repeat in 2024. The current government coalition has lost almost all trust from the public, yet they soldier on determined to make things worse for the vast majority of Germans. The Greens push for more war, the Free Democrats want more social spending cuts, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democratic Party (SPD) are in the middle adopting the worst from both sides and leading Germany to ruin.

Not only it is being repeated now, it is getting worse, much-much worse. And this is just a warm-up. This the freshest (from 2023) enterprises' electricity prices. Look at the cut-off around the US for combined West.

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And here is what gasoline prices (per liter) are around the world for 2023.

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Look at Europe. It was always high, but now EU should kiss India's ass because it is India which resells Russian oil to the EU. So many clues, so many processes to follow. You may say I don't have heart--not true, I do. But as I stated, Europeans voted for that being played for fools which many of them turned out to be. Sad, but this is the reality and, as I state non-stop, when shit hits the fan big time--it is when, not if--never a foot of Russian soldier be put on European soil, not a drop of blood to be shed for Europeans. Let them sort it out between themselves, luckily economically and militarily they are pathetic and any hypothetical rise of new Hitler can be easily addressed by a nuclear whip which Russia has. Europe produced two world wars, Russia will not allow the third one coming from it.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/07/sure-sure.html

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Orban’s Trip To Kiev Was Primarily About Bilateral Relations

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUL 04, 2024

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It took Hungary’s rotating presidency of the Council of the EU for Orban to finally visit Kiev, which raised the chances that he wouldn’t be mistreated by Zelensky out of vengeance for his views.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s trip to Kiev earlier this week generated a lot of attention due to it being the first time that he visited the Ukrainian capital since the latest phase of the NATO-Russian proxy war in that country broke out nearly two and half years ago. The media also focused mostly on his suggestion that Ukraine agree to a ceasefire in order to facilitate peace talks, which was predictably rejected, thus leading to the impression that his visit was only about that and had thus failed.

The fact of the matter though is that the Hungarian and Ukrainian press releases both mentioned that the purpose of his trip was to make progress on bilateral relations. Orban’s interest in peace, which might have recently been piqued even further by Zelensky hinting that such talks could take place via a mediator just like the grain deal ones did, was secondary to this goal. About that, he primarily wanted to ensure that Kiev finally respects the rights of ethnic Hungarians in the Zakarpattia Region.

This “Under-Discussed Humanitarian Dimension Of Hungary’s Stance Towards The Ukrainian Conflict” plays a major role in why Budapest refuses to arm Kiev or allow its NATO allies to do so via its territory. That region belonged to Hungarian Civilization for over a millennium but ended up under Czechoslovak control after World War I, prior to which it briefly returned to Hungarian hands from 1939-1945, only to then be transferred to Soviet Ukraine upon the end of World War II.

Kiev’s forcible conscription policies have had an outsized impact on the country’s Hungarian minority, some of whom were captured by Russia but then sent to Hungary in June 2023 upon their request instead of back to Ukraine. That incident was analyzed here at the time for those who’d like to learn more about it. The importance rests in the fact that those conscripted Hungarians didn’t feel comfortable returning to Ukraine due to its discriminatory policies against their minority group.

Orban is obligated to ensure his co-ethnics’ interests as best as he can, but he hitherto declined to travel Ukraine for that purpose since no progress had thus far been made on this, though his country’s rotating presidency of the Council of the EU gave him the opportunity to do so while also exploring a ceasefire. He visited Kiev not just as the Hungarian Prime Minister, but as a representative of the Council of the EU, thus ensuring that Zelensky didn’t try to upstage or humiliate him but instead treated him with respect.

Although the trip was primarily about resolving bilateral issues, the diplomatic context of Hungary’s new EU role over the next half-year created a much better atmosphere than if it had been a purely bilateral trip with Orban participating solely in his capacity as the Hungarian Prime Minister. Moreover, Zelensky knows that he’ll need Orban’s agreement if Ukraine is to make further progress on joining the EU, no matter how superficial it ultimately is. That in turn made him more amenable to bilateral negotiations.

The only tangible outcome of their meeting was that Orban committed to building and financing as many Ukrainian schools as this community needs inside of Hungary owing to the influx of refugees. That was a clever move since it pressures Zelensky to respond reciprocally by restoring the Hungarian minority’s rights even though he didn’t commit to anything tangible yet. Talks on this are underway though judging by Orban’s optimism that the matter will be resolved with a comprehensive cooperation agreement.

All told, it took Hungary’s rotating presidency of the Council of the EU for Orban to finally visit Kiev, which raised the chances that he wouldn’t be mistreated by Zelensky out of vengeance for his views. Even though he broached the subject of a ceasefire, the real purpose behind his trip as confirmed by both parties was to enhance bilateral ties, which remain troubled but might soon normalize. His visit can therefore be assessed as a positive step in the right direction, but it’ll still take time to bear fruit, if any.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/orbans-t ... -primarily
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blindpig
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:51 pm

One communist’s perspective of a general election in Britain
A journey through the Corbyn project to the ranks of the revolutionary working class.

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Proletarian writers

Friday 5 July 2024

A lot has changed since the general election of 2019 and, from the British working class’s perspective, none of it has been positive. From this writer’s personal perspective, the fact that I am now a committed communist has been transformational.

It’s important to explain a little of my journey to this moment because it has relevance to my understanding of the 2024 election. It gives some context to my grasp of the nature and make-up of our world, and how it influences my approach to the spectacle and farce we call democracy. Most importantly, I hope it will resonate with you, the reader …

My parents were communists, so my entire childhood was steeped in the language of socialism and the pursuit of justice, freedom and the defeat of capitalism. As a child growing up in such a household, you can’t help but be imbued with an understanding of the true nature of things: how the world truly works, the power and destructive forces of imperialism, the insidious lies of the media, the role of the police, not as protectors of the peace but as enforcers of state power, the continual battles against injustice and the fight for people’s right to live securely without the constant stress of deprivation of food, shelter or access to healthcare.

As a young adult, I left my home in pursuit of my own passions, and for the next 25 years I was focused on building a successful corporate career. I never lost my understanding of the true nature of the capitalist world, and my decisions in life and work were always guided by socialist values. I remained politically aware but not active.

To be fair, whilst I believed in socialist principles, after watching my parents dedicate most of their time and lives to its pursuit, making what seemed like infinitesimal gains against apparently overwhelming power and opposition, I imagined that socialism was but a pipe dream, and never in my lifetime.

Then, one day in 2015, I was reading the news and I heard that, against all odds, a left-wing MP called Jeremy Corbyn had managed to get on the ballot to be leader of the Labour party. He was doing a series of roadshows around the country to spread his message and, intrigued, I took myself off to hear what he had to say.

My interest was piqued. He was spouting words like socialism, talking about re-nationalisation of our assets and equality for working people: language I had not heard for many years in Britain and certainly not from any mainstream political circles. I had never been a supporter of the Labour party, proudly never voted for it, but a latent desire had been awoken and I saw Jeremy Corbyn as a massive strategic opportunity.

He was attracting a real following by using the language I believed in – justice, equality and socialism. It meant it wasn’t just me who wanted those things, there were hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions of people who were attracted by such rhetoric and possibility.

Now I knew enough to know that socialism could not be achieved via the parliamentary process; I understood that the establishment would never allow that to happen. But I wondered if this unexpected blip of a left-wing candidate leading a major political party could be used as a means to an end – a way of opening the eyes of the British working class to the lie that they had any power or control over their lives or over society at large.

Surely, what was to come would clearly illustrate that parliamentary democracy was a façade; would help them see that an end to their exploitation and the road to socialism would never be achieved through the vote?

So I did something I could never have imagined doing: I joined the Labour party and I got involved in party politics. At my first meeting, I became secretary of my constituency branch (CLP), and for the next four years I worked with some good people, against all odds, in pursuit of a Labour victory.

I say against all odds because it was abundantly clear from the off that Corbyn was never going to be elected. But what a great opportunity to prove that to workers – particularly advanced workers who were motivated by his ‘kinder’ style of politics and socialist rhetoric.

The lessons of history
To govern is not just to be elected, one needs the cooperation of state and corporate machinery: the civil service, military leadership, Bank of England governors, business and international trade institutions, ratings agencies, treaty organisations, powerful economic actors called monopolies, and ultimately, our US imperial masters. Parliament has no real sovereign authority; it is encircled and enslaved by those who hold and exercise the real power.

Elected parties and political leaders whose mandates are contrary to establishment diktats discover to their cost that to take office is not the same as to take power. This is nothing new. In 1975, Gough Whitlam, then democratically elected Labor party prime minister of Australia, was dismissed by the governor general for his plans to introduce a foreign policy independent of the United States, and the CIA was having none of that!

The Syriza party of Greece was summarily defeated when it attempted to resist the might of finance capital by refusing to pay the nation’s debt. Jeremy Corbyn and Liz Truss were both politically trounced and personally discredited by imperialist forces determined on a different path.

The most fundamental lesson informed by simple economics is that there is no formula for maintaining profitable capitalism whilst transferring any significant part of the wealth and power to workers and the poor. There is and can never be a ‘trickle down’ under capitalism, and therefore to expect a parliamentary party, the Labour party or any other, regardless of leadership, to prioritise workers’ interests is delusional.

When, in 2019, the end finally came with Corbyn’s electoral defeat against Boris Johnson, I left the Labour party and joined the CPGB-ML, anticipating a surge of advanced workers in tow towards an enlightened path. After all, it was now blatantly obvious to those who harboured such illusions that necessary change through social democracy was not possible.

Social democracy has never had anything to do with socialism – an order of change of quite a different magnitude. The time had come to fight for true socialism, the revolutionary way.

Strategy and tactics at election time
So here we are in 2024, on the eve of another general election, and I approach this event from the standpoint of being an active communist in pursuit of more than a change of political party but a complete change of system.

At a time when the radical redistribution of political and economic power is the only solution to the crisis of capitalism, the choice offered to the British people remains a two-party duopoly offering no alternative but continued lies, exploitation and the drive to war on the coat tails of an imploding US empire.

When much of the electorate believes neither political party represents their interests and knows the media manipulates them with lies, our so-called ‘democratic rules-based order’ is suffering from its worst crisis of legitimacy in history.

Whilst we are being dragged further into war and economic and social crises, however, momentous leaps are happening elsewhere in the world. The challenge to western military might and neocolonial rule is occurring across continents and instilling a growing sense of hope, optimism and fighting spirit amongst people in the west, particularly the young.

US imperialism and its western vassals, the old imperialists including Britain, France and Germany, are losing their intimidation factor domestically and internationally. Peoples across the world are pushing back and challenging the status quo, and we British communists should be at the vanguard of workers’ expressions of frustration and irritation, articulating and refining their ideas and building a united front in their pursuit.

Never in my lifetime has the opportunity and possibility for socialist change been so tangibly sweet. The dominoes of capitalist fortitude are beginning to fall and now is the moment for all communists to be rejecting the status quo outright and illuminating the road to socialism.

It was then with deep disappointment that I read of the announcement by Robert Griffiths, general secretary of the Communist Part of Britain (CPB) that: “The Communist party will be contesting its highest number of Westminster seats for 40 years with a battle-cry of ‘Tories out – unite for workers’ rights, public ownership and peace!’”

Tories out? What about ‘Don’t vote for that other imperialist, slimy, conniving party of pretenders, the Labour party!’ The Labour party is not the ‘lesser of two evils’. We are well past buying into that nonsensical dichotomy.

Sir Keir Starmer been exemplary in exposing the true nature of Labour as an anti-worker party in his statements about ‘protecting our borders’, on ‘national security’, in his support for Nato in Ukraine and genocide in Palestine, and in his own and his shadow chancellor’s assurances that they mean to be ‘kind to business’.

Labour is the most despicable of creatures: a wolf in sheep’s clothing – ie, the Tories in disguise. As the saying goes: ‘Labour, Tory, same old story’.

By all accounts, Labour is set to win a landslide victory, and it is clear that the party has the backing of the establishment, with western media endlessly spinning the news favourably in its direction. But why Labour and why now?

It’s a tactic oft employed when economic and or social conditions necessitate the quelling of growing hostility among the masses. The pretended ‘party of the working class’ is presented as the champion of hope to quell the mounting outrage and dissatisfaction of growing numbers of people.

Even more dastardly, history has demonstrated that a Labour government, with its facade of being the party of working people, and with the support of trade union leader lackeys, can slip through even more coercive and exploitative conditions than its Tory counterpart could ever have imagined. Such is the true purpose of the Labour party. (Recommended reading: Britain’s Perfidious Labour Party, available in our book shop.)

Is the CPB approaching this farcical pantomime of pomp, the general election, from a dialectical position? For those of us in pursuit of socialism, our policy must surely be to agitate and undermine state power and emasculate the strategic intentions of the bourgeoise at every opportunity. Yet the CPB is endorsing a Labour landslide as the best way to ‘get the Tories out'.

And it is doing so even as the Palestinian crisis is driving waves of independent candidates to stand, something Britain has not seen for decades, if ever. These candidates can do damage to a deepening crisis of capitalism by creating and deepening instability in the British political system. They can be annoying and disruptive individually from within Parliament, and if enough of them get enough votes, they can mess with Labour’s forecast landslide even without being elected themselves.

Our immediate task must be to do whatever lies within our power to disrupt the routine functioning of British imperialism. Pursuing a hung parliament, which would force Labour into having to do a deal, is a tactic that could help thwart imperial machinations.

As the Corbyn project taught us, the problems of the British working class cannot ultimately be solved through participation in the parliamentary circus. We must aggravate the political crisis of the ruling class by disrupting its intended clean sweep for Labour and build our own forces at the same time.

A British road to socialism in 2024
In the system of production for profit called capitalism (also known as ‘wage slavery’), managed by the capitalist ruling class via the charade of parliamentary democracy, wealth gets steadily concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. We are living at a time when the extremes between the ridiculously rich and the rest of the poor are wider than they have ever been.

The injustices of our society – pay that doesn’t cover basic living standards, a bankrupt health service, exorbitant energy bills, the cost of childcare … all come from the way the means of production are used to generate ever more profits for a few. Only by changing the economic basis of our society away from capitalistic profit-driven production to a socialist approach of planned production – planned to meet the needs of all the people – can we finally live in peace, securely. It is the only way of solving our problems.

We know that a change of system can never be achieved via a parliamentary route. We have lived that experience too many times now to believe it. We know that regardless of which of the two major parties is in power, our basic needs will remain unmet.

This system called capitalism represents big money, big power, big exploitation: its crisis is widespread and will worsen. In the words of the great Karl Marx: “Capital is dead labour, which, vampire-like, lives only by sucking living labour, and lives the more, the more labour it sucks.”

Only socialism, a planned productive system, based on meeting the needs of the mass of the people, can work in our favour. And as a committed communist, like my parents before me, I will fight for a such a system.

https://thecommunists.org/2024/07/05/ne ... democracy/

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Election In Britain

The Tories have lost the election in Britain.

Labour, under Keir Stamer, did not win the election. It received less votes than it had received under Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 and 2019.

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The turnout was low. The overwhelming voter sentiment was 'anything but Tory'. There was no enthusiasms for Labour and Stamer's program.

Labour, under Corbyn, had been a real worker party with socialist tendencies.

The deep state, with the help of the Israeli embassy, had launched a media campaign against Labour alleging that it was hiding anti-semitic tendencies. Corbyn made the huge mistake of not fighting back against it. In the end he was kicked out despite Labour's healthy election results.

Jeremy Corby, no longer in Labour, has been reelected. So have been five MPs who campaigned on a pro-Gaza position.

Stamer is a controversial figure. He seems to have been placed in his position by the deep state. His previous position was the Chief of the Crown Prosecution Service. He had a major role in indicting and incarcerating Julian Assange.

After being installed he has moved Labour to the right. It is now occupying a pro-capitalism center-right position:

“What Keir has done is taken all the left out of the Labour Party,” billionaire businessman John Caudwell, previously a big Tory donor, told the BBC. “He’s come out with a brilliant set of values and principles and ways of growing Britain in complete alignment with my views as a commercial capitalist.”

The Labour Party highlighted his endorsement.

Stamer will hurt the British public more than the Tory did under Sunak.

There will soon be an uproar against him.

I do note expect him to survive for long.

Posted by b on July 5, 2024 at 13:16 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/07/e ... l#comments

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LE PEN THREATENS NATO UNITY AND SUPPORT FOR KYIV
4 Jul 2024 , 10:30 am .

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A member of Le Pen's party taking over as France's prime minister would deal a blow to military funding for Ukraine (Photo: Bloomberg)

Uncertainty looms over France just days before the second round of parliamentary elections. A landslide victory by the right led by Marine Le Pen and the National Rally or the left-wing coalition known as the New Popular Front could relegate President Emmanuel Macron to a marginal figure, with a potentially devastating impact on the political landscape of the European Union, NATO and military funding for Ukraine.

Bloomberg, in an alarmist article , predicts a crushing defeat for Macron’s party, which would leave the EU’s second-largest country under the control of political forces skeptical of NATO and aid to Zelensky’s government. The publication predicts that a government led by Le Pen or by the left, known for their sympathy for Russia and their rejection of sending arms to Ukraine, would end the supply of French missiles to Kiev and undermine the cohesion of the European Union and NATO.

Concern about the election results in France is clearly visible in the Western media. The Economist, in an article entitled " A major blow for Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance ", warns that the scenario of a "Eurosceptic or NATO-sceptic" government could relegate Macron to the background on the international diplomatic scene.

According to data from the French Interior Ministry, the National Rally and its allies led the first round with 33.4% of the vote. The left-wing coalition New Popular Front followed with 27.98%, and in third place Macron's coalition with 20.76%.

If the National Rally confirms its lead in the second round next Sunday, it could obtain between 230 and 280 seats in the National Assembly, leaving it close to an absolute majority (289 seats). If this scenario materialises, Emmanuel Macron would be forced into an uncomfortable "cohabitation" with a prime minister of the opposite sign, Jordan Bardella, a phenomenon that, although exceptional, has already occurred in France on up to three occasions in recent decades. The uncertainty now lies in the magnitude of the setback that Macron will suffer.

A FEELING OF EUROSCEPTICISM IS SPREADING ACROSS THE EUROPEAN CONTINENT

Discussions about possible direct intervention in the conflict in Ukraine have intensified in Western political circles. French President Emmanuel Macron has raised the possibility of deploying French military personnel in the region, while British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has backed attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian territory with British missiles

On the other hand, Marine Le Pen, confident of victory, declared in an interview :

"For the President, the post of Head of the Armed Forces is an honorary title, since it is the Prime Minister who pulls the purse strings. Jordan has no intention of quarrel with him, but he has drawn some red lines. On Ukraine, the President will not be able to send troops."

The results of the first round, with Le Pen's party in the lead, have set off alarm bells in traditional political and media circles. The press, accusing Le Pen of being a "friend of Putin" and criticising her stance on Ukraine, immigration and the climate agenda, does not hide its fear of a victory for this sector of the right.

But the rise of Le Pen's vision is not limited to France. A sense of Euroscepticism is spreading across the continent, fuelled by discontent with the European Union, NATO and financial support for Ukraine.

The next few days will be decisive. All eyes will be on France, which, as an essential pillar of the European structure, is at stake, with much more than just Emmanuel Macron's political future. The second round of parliamentary elections could represent a turning point for all European politics, and weaken the West's position in its war against Russia.

https://misionverdad.com/globalistan/le ... apoyo-kiev

Google Translator

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Far-right surge or status quo? Understanding the 2024 European elections

Last month’s European Parliament elections did not bring about the ultimate breakthrough of the far right as some had feared. They are gaining influence though, especially because the lines between them and forces in the political center are blurring. Consequently, we will have to look to the left to stop their surge.

July 04, 2024 by Wim De Ceukelaire

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EU elections. Photo: European Parliament

Between June 6 and 9, residents of the European Union (EU) went to the polls to elect a new European Parliament. There were fears in advance of a breakthrough by the far right, which was not surprising given the recent electoral successes of extreme nationalist, conservative, and elitist parties, often with xenophobic tendencies and fascist roots or inspiration.

Six of the 27 EU countries—Italy, Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, and the Czech Republic—have far-right parties in government. Sweden’s minority government relies on the support of the nationalist Sweden Democrats, the second-largest force in Parliament.

In the Netherlands, the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) of Geert Wilders won 37 seats in the 150-seat Parliament after a campaign filled with xenophobia and anti-Islam sentiment. His parliamentary group is much larger than those of the red/green alliance of European Commissioner Frans Timmermans and the liberals of former Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who won 24 and 25 seats respectively. At the time of the European elections, Wilders was busy forming the most right-wing government in his country’s recent history.

The Netherlands is a relatively small country, but the surge of the extreme right caused concern in the large countries of Europe as well. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia, a party that traces its roots back to the fascist movement of Benito Mussolini, has been in power since October 2022. In France, the Rassemblement National of Marine Le Pen topped the pre-election polls, while the AfD, Alternative für Deutschland, the extreme right force in Germany consistently scored better in opinion polls than any of the three governing parties.

This Europe-wide success of far-right parties was indeed confirmed by the European election results. The party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni won more than 28 percent of the national vote. In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National was the party of preference for almost one in three voters, humiliating President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, which garnered only half as many votes. In Germany, the AfD won almost 16 percent. This might be less spectacular than the Italian and French extreme right, but it’s still better than each of the three members of the current traffic light coalition: the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the Liberal Party.

But has the European Parliament indeed been taken over by the extreme right? Not really.

Their electoral successes in a number of countries is undeniable, as the examples of Italy, France, and Germany have already illustrated. The surge of the far right has been at the expense of traditional centrist parties. In the European Parliament, the Greens and Liberals lost about one-fourth of their seats each. The Social Democrats seem to remain stable, though, losing only four seats.

But the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) Group is even growing and remains by far the largest group in the European Parliament. Together, these four traditional political groups still have a majority in the European Parliament.

Besides, although the extreme right parties did make progress in the June 2024 elections, they are hopelessly divided among themselves on key issues such as economic policy, foreign relations, and EU integration. For example, while some advocate for complete withdrawal from the EU, others support renegotiating membership terms.

As a result of these divisions, there are two parliamentary groups that contain far-right parties. On the one hand, there is the right-nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists, dominated by the Fratelli d’Italia and Poland’s Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) Party. On the other hand, there’s the far-right Identity and Democracy Group, whose members include France’s National Rally but also the Austrian Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs and Geert Wilders’s PVV. The AfD was a member of this group until it was expelled weeks before the European elections following a series of scandals.

And then, there are a number of far-right parties that do not belong to any of those parliamentary groups because they are not deemed acceptable or have already been expelled. Hungary’s Fidesz party became the largest among them when they quit the center-right European People’s Party in 2021. There’s also a whole range of smaller parties. The AfD joined their ranks just recently, as it is unaffiliated to any parliamentary group.

There are two reasons, therefore, why the extreme right is not able to dominate the European Parliament. On the one hand, the centrist parties, and especially the EPP Group, remain relatively strong. Besides, the far-right groups are too divided among themselves to become dominant.

The fear of a takeover of European mainstream politics by fringe, extreme right parties seems to be unfounded, at least for now. Nevertheless the influence of the extreme right is growing undeniably. The real danger might come from the blurring of the lines between mainstream parties and the far right.

We have seen recently how extreme right parties have started to emulate center-right parties in exchange for a seat at the table, especially if they can join the government. Interestingly, Giorgia Meloni’s party is the only one of the three major Italian far-right parties that is unequivocally in favor of NATO and support to Ukraine. Once in government, she became an outspoken supporter of military support. Geert Wilders, from his side, was ready to swallow much of his extreme party program in exchange for his ascension to government. The French Rassemblement National is also undergoing rebranding, and rallies with slick firebrand Jordan Bardella do not resemble the nostalgic National Front meetings of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party’s founder.

This is not the only way the lines between the mainstream and the extreme right have become blurred. The center-right is also moving slowly but surely to the right. The shift of center-right parties towards the right can be seen in the EU’s new migration pact, defended by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, which includes measures originally championed by the far right such as tougher deterrence through border control and stricter asylum procedures. Likewise, it also reinforces the extreme right’s framing of migration as a threat to European values. The real danger, therefore, might not be that of a takeover of European politics by extreme-right parties but of the alliance between the old center-right with the ‘new’, supposedly more moderate, extreme right.

The only remedy to the rise of the extreme right is therefore to be sought not in the center but to the left of the political spectrum. The left is positioned to counter the far right because of its commitment to inclusive and egalitarian policies, which directly oppose the exclusionary and nationalist rhetoric of the far right.

Unfortunately, the left is also divided and is missing a clear strategy. There is the new phenomenon of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht in Germany, which is combining restrictive proposals on immigration with a more progressive economic program, although with 6.2 percent in the European Parliamentary elections they scored less than anticipated. La France Insoumise (France), the Kommounistikó Kómma Elládas (Greece), and Partij van de Arbeid van België / Parti du Travail de Belgique (Belgium) scored well, winning the support of some 10 percent of their countries’ electorate. The left is showing resilience in other countries as well. Eventually, it’s these parties and the social movements they are rooted in that will have to provide an answer to the rise of the far right in Europe.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2024/07/04/ ... elections/

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Zelensky owes Orban an explanation

Lucas Leiroz

July 5, 2024

In addition to persecuting Russians in the east, the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev also promotes ethnic cleansing against Hungarians in Transcarpathia.

Instead of an improvement in bilateral relations, the recent meeting between Vladimir Zelensky and Viktor Orban only intensified tensions between both countries. The Hungarian Prime Minister’s visit to Kiev appears to have been a kind of ultimatum for the Ukrainian regime to stop its irresponsible actions and accept a peace negotiation. Given Zelensky’s insistence on war, Hungary is expected to take increasingly tough actions to boycott military support for Ukraine within the Western organizations in which it is part (NATO and EU).

Orban made a surprise visit to the Ukrainian capital and presented Zelensky with a peace proposal, the central element of which was the establishment of an immediate ceasefire, enabling the resumption of negotiations between the parties. On the same day, the Ukrainian authorities rejected the Hungarian proposal, remaining firm in their desire to continue the war to the last consequences. Orban has repeatedly clarified that the West wants war with Russia, which will not benefit Europe at all and could lead to a major continental conflict. Zelensky and the entire Kiev Junta, however, are not aligned with European interests, preferring to obey American orders directly.

Orban’s words in Kiev can be seen as a genuine call for peace – while also sounding like a final warning. The Hungarian leader often tried to prevent the advance of Western military support to Ukraine, thus aiming to promote a de-escalation of the conflict. Due to its dissident stance in the EU, Hungary has suffered economic blackmail, boycotts and even attempts at color revolution. The country appears to be a target for NATO and EU strategists, even though it is a member of both groups.

The reasons why Hungary tries to de-escalate the war are many and go beyond the interest of avoiding a continental war. Orban is a conservative leader who has as one of his main political agendas the defense of Christianity and traditional values – a topic on which he sympathizes with the Russian Federation and is in total disagreement with Ukrainian woke Nazism. The West’s promotion of an anti-traditional cultural agenda has created significant tensions between Hungary and its partners, making the country actually isolated from other NATO and EU members.

One of the most important points for Orban’s skepticism towards Kiev, however, is the ethnic persecution promoted against Hungarian citizens in the western regions of Ukraine, mainly in Transcarpathia. Cities with an ethnic Hungarian majority have suffered from racist policies in a similar way to what Russians in Donbass have suffered since 2014. Just as the Russian language has been banned from being taught in schools and used in official documents, the Hungarian language is also being banned, affecting the ethnic and cultural identity of thousands of Hungarians.

One of the most shocking practices of the Kiev regime is the ethnic instrumentalization of forced recruitment policies. The Ukrainian armed forces constantly forcibly capture non-Ukrainian ethnic citizens from the country’s streets, sending them to the front lines without proper training, making death a mere matter of time. Ethnic Russians and Hungarians have been constantly recruited to certain death at the front, with local authorities trying to “spare” Ukrainian soldiers as much as possible.

During the Battle of Artymovsk (known in Ukraine as “Bakhmut”), several reports emerged from local observers denouncing the forced recruitment of hundreds of Hungarians from Transcarpathia. The battle became known as the “meat grinder”, due to the high rate of casualties among Ukrainian troops during clashes with the Russian private military company Wagner Group. Apparently, Kiev used the “meat grinder” as a tool to accelerate the process of ethnic cleansing in Transcarpathia, sending ethnic Hungarian citizens to certain death.

Hungary has repeatedly denounced the Kiev Junta’s racist policies against Hungarians who are under Ukrainian jurisdiction. The inaction of international organizations – mainly NATO and the EU, of which Hungary is a part – has only increased Hungarian impatience. Kiev has not changed its practices. Zelensky also did not use the last meeting with Orban to give him an “explanation” – if that is even possible – or at least promise to change his policies. So, given the certainty that Kiev will continue the war and the extermination of Hungarians, perhaps Orban’s peace proposal will become a true ultimatum.

Without any goodwill on Ukraine’s part, Orban now has no alternative but to actually do everything he can to thwart Kiev’s plans. It is possible that he will harden his positions within NATO and the EU, vetoing pro-Ukraine proposals even under economic blackmail. More than that, Orban could even launch a policy of seeking strategic partnerships with emerging countries, and discussions about leaving NATO and the EU will inevitably begin to advance on the Hungarian domestic scenario.

It is also necessary to remember that since 2022 there have been rumors that Hungary might eventually intervene militarily in Ukraine to stop ethnic cleansing in Transcarpathia . Even though these rumors have no proof so far, with Ukrainian insistence, it is possible that at some point there will be internal pressure in Hungary for these rumors to become reality.

Hungary is realizing, before all NATO and EU members, that membership in these organizations is a real trap. Orban does not seem willing to accept that his country become a victim of a continental war initiated by Ukraine, nor does he want to continue seeing his Hungarian compatriots dying in hostilities with Russia. He will certainly do everything possible to make the Hungarian future different from the Ukrainian one.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... planation/

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Orban arrived in Russia

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Orban, who holds the EU presidency, has arrived in Moscow for a visit. There is mild hysteria in Europe about this. They say that Orban is undermining Russia's isolation policy with his rebelliousness. One
should not expect much from this visit. Although the footage of Orban's talks with Putin will obviously make Europe angry.
As is easy to notice, despite the closed airspace, there are no significant problems with flying from the EU to Moscow.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9246945.html

Google Translator

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Germany Is Preparing To Assume Partial Responsibility For Poland’s Eastern Border Security

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUL 05, 2024

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This represents the unprecedented expansion of Germany military influence in the post-World War II era, which is being advanced on a false anti-Russian pretext with full American backing.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s supporters had hitherto dismissed opposition leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s claims of him being a “German agent” as a conspiracy theory, but they now have egg on their face after Tusk invited Germany to assume partial responsibility for Poland’s eastern border security. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who openly expressed hegemonic intentions in a manifesto for Foreign Affairs back in December 2022, readily agreed on the pretext that their security is linked.

Right as Tusk was hosting Scholz in Warsaw, Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz was in Vilnius where he and his Lithuanian counterpart called for NATO and the EU to “internationalize” their borders with Belarus and Russia, which followed them demanding that Brussels finance a “defense line”. Latvia and Estonia are also participating in this project, and it’s likely that nearby Finland will join as well, with their requested German-led EU support being facilitated by them joining the “military Schengen”.

This concept refers to the deal that was agreed to in mid-February between Poland, Germany, and the Netherlands for optimizing military logistics between them. France just joined, and it’s likely that the Baltic States and perhaps a few others might sign on to this as well during next week’s NATO Summit. The end goal is to construct “Fortress Europe”, or a German-led European-wide military zone that’ll enable Berlin to contain Russia on Washington’s behalf as the US “Pivots (back) to Asia” to contain China.

Poland was already poised to play an indispensable role in this arrangement as was explained here earlier in the spring, with the preceding hyperlinked analysis’ forecast rapidly entering into fruition after the latest interconnected developments in Warsaw and Vilnius last week. Interestingly, these trends align with Trump’s reported plan for NATO that was first proposed nearly a year and a half ago in February 2023 but only recently generated media attention, which readers can learn more about here.

In a nutshell, it envisages the US retrenching from Europe in favor of refocusing its military efforts on Asia, with sub-bloc coalitions forming in its wake to contain Russia. That’s precisely what’s unfolding in part at present with respect to the latest progress made in implementing the German-led “Fortress Europe” policy. The key difference is that the US hasn’t (yet?) redeployed its forces from Europe to Asia, however, nor has it (yet?) threatened to remove its nuclear umbrella from thrifty NATO members.

Nevertheless, what’s been achieved thus far is already strategically significant since it represents the unprecedented expansion of Germany military influence in the post-World War II era, which is being advanced on a false anti-Russian pretext with full American backing. Germany is preparing to assume partial responsibility for Poland’s eastern border security, facilitated as it will be by the “military Schengen”, which could easily lead to it expanding its influence throughout the Baltics once they join.

Half of the NATO-Russian border might therefore soon come under partial German control, with the other half possibly falling under it as well in the event that Finland signs up for the “military Schengen” and joins the “EU defense line”, thus ominously resembling the run-up to Operation Barbarossa. That’s not to imply that Germany is once again preparing to invade Russia, but just that this undoubtedly sends a very strong message and will certainly have a strong psychological impact on Russian policymakers.

Within the span of two and a half years, Germany transformed from their closest partner in Europe to among its greatest rivals, though it’ll still take a lot of time for Germany to rebuild its military capacity to the point where it could once again pose a credible threat to Russia on its own. Counterintuitively, Germany’s new US-backed military-strategic plans might therefore increase the chances of freezing the Ukrainian Conflict on better terms for Russia since Berlin and its subordinates need time to rearm.

Russia is beating NATO in the “race of logistics”/ “war of attrition” by such a large margin that Sky News shockingly reported in late May that it’s building three times as many shells at a quarter of the price. Most NATO members already expended their stockpiles arming Ukraine and can’t replace them so long as everything that they’re producing is being sent to that former Soviet Republic as the conflict rages. Accordingly, there’s a logic in freezing it by year’s end, thus enabling the EU to rearm by 2030 or so.

That said, the West’s ruling liberal-globalist faction remains ideologically committed to the lost cause of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia as proven by their latest escalations from late May till now, which readers can learn more about in this analysis here that also enumerates several related ones. With an eye on the impending German-led European military buildup along its western borders, Russia might therefore be less likely to freeze the conflict without first achieving some of its national security goals.

After all, the European security architecture fundamentally changed for the worse throughout the course of the special operation as NATO exploited Russia’s game-changing move to intensify the threats that it poses on that country’s borders, thus leaving Ukraine the only place for Russia to achieve a buffer zone. The failure to do that even in part, such as by ensuring the partial demilitarization of Kiev-controlled Ukrainian regions east of the Dnieper as proposed here, would make matters even worse for Russia.

Russian policymakers were already keenly aware of this, but now they’re being reminded of Operation Barbarossa as a result of Germany ominously recreating the buildup to the world’s largest invasion via its military-strategic moves in Poland and likely soon the Baltic States and possibly Finland too. If Russia accordingly holds firm on at least the partial demilitarization aspect of its national security goals in this conflict, then NATO could be coerced into agreeing to this out of desperation to buy time to rearm.

Turning the Ukrainian Conflict into the latest “forever war” like the liberal-globalists plan to do risks sparking World War III by miscalculation if Russia achieves a military breakthrough across the front lines that’s then taken advantage of by NATO to commence a conventional intervention to stop its advance. Even if that scenario doesn’t transpire and the front lines remain largely static for the indefinite future, then “Fortress Europe” will still fall flat since only the structure will be implemented, not the substance.

Having more countries join the “military Schengen” in parallel with Germany bolstering its military presence along the bloc’s eastern border by leading the construction of its “defense line” won’t amount to much so long as the EU’s stockpiles remain empty if they continue sending everything to Ukraine. Since Russia is less likely as a result of Germany’s moves to freeze the conflict if it doesn’t achieve a buffer zone of some sort in Ukraine, the odds are now growing that NATO might agree to a compromise.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/germany- ... me-partial
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Mon Jul 08, 2024 2:42 pm

Orban Shared Some Detailed Insight Into His Mediation Efforts

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUL 07, 2024

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In Orban’s view, Christians should promote peace, but it must be approached politically, not bureaucratically, otherwise nothing will ever be achieved.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gave a twenty-minute-long video interview to the Swiss news outlet Die Weltwoche in which he shared detailed insight into his mediation efforts. It’s in English and can be watched here, but the present piece will summarize what he said for the reader’s convenience. After some small talk with his interlocutor, Orban clarified to his critics that he’s a friend of the Hungarians first and also of peace, not some Russian puppet like they misportray him as being.

He said that he’s looking for the shortest and quickest way to stop the conflict and bring about peace. He then mentioned that he began the preparations for his visit to Moscow immediately after his talks with Zelensky and kept them secret, but they were leaked after his plane requested transit through Polish airspace. On the topic of secrecy, he hinted that he has some equally surprising meetings scheduled for next week, but he didn’t suggest with who or where they’ll be.

In Orban’s view, Christians should promote peace, but it must be approached politically, not bureaucratically, otherwise nothing will ever be achieved. He revealed that he spiritually prepared ahead of time so he isn’t bothered by all the criticism he’s received from the West since he’s convinced that talks are the first step on the road to peace. On that topic, he noted that he’s the only Western leader who can have a chat with Kiev and Moscow.

All of his counterparts created a situation where they now have no chance to communicate with the two main actors in this conflict. Orban believes that it’s emotionally unacceptable, dreadful, and bad to perpetuate the fighting since many children are being orphaned as a result of the high casualty rate. He’s therefore willing to pay any political price in Brussels for using his country’s new special position as the rotating president of the Council of the EU to obtain the role of a mediator between Ukraine and Russia.

As for his talks with Putin, Orban also noted that he’s the first Western leader to meet with him since Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer visited Moscow in April 2022. He then said that he asked him three questions, the first of which is what he thinks about the peace plans that are already on the table in order to clarify his understanding. He said that the Russian leader considers all plans such as the joint Sino-Brazilian one and is ready to resume negotiations based on the draft peace treaty from spring 2022.

Putin also said that he considers all other plans, except for Zelensky’s ultimatums of course, but real negotiations can’t begin without Russia’s involvement. The second question that Orban asked Putin was whether he’d consider a ceasefire before the resumption of peace talks, to which he replied that he’s not optimistic about that because Ukraine will use it against Russia. Nevertheless, Orban insisted that he still think about it and not dismiss it out of hand.

And finally, the third question was about Putin’s vision for the European security architecture after the conflict ends, to which he said that he has a detailed plan in mind but that it’s too early to publicly speak about it. Even so, Putin also told Orban that he’s ready to talk to others about this if they’re interested. The Hungarian leader was then asked whether he thought that Putin feels bitter, deceived, let down, and/or in full combat mode to confront the West, but Orban said that he’s never seen Putin upset.

That’s because they agreed during their first meeting in 2009 that mutual respect will be the basis of their ties so he’s never offended him, which is why he doesn’t know what he’s like when he’s angry. Their talks are always conducted in a good mood, and Orban praised Putin as a 100% rational person who’s very disciplined. It’s thus a challenge to negotiate with him since one must be prepared to keep up with his intellectual and political level. As could be expected, Orban said that Putin talked more than he did.

He then said that everyone, including the two primary participants, knows that the Ukrainian Conflict must end sooner or later and that peace is always a good thing. The goal of his shuttle diplomacy was to create hope that this isn’t impossible and to show that their leaders can find a way through him if they want. Peace must be based on mutual understanding and mutual intentions, and he hoped that his hosts would be encouraged to move in this direction by his meetings with them.

As a Western leader, Orban said that some might perceive him as Russia’s enemy, but that’s precisely why his visit to Moscow created such hope for peace since he was the first such one of his peers to meet with Putin and talk to him in a different way by holding a mutually respectful dialogue. He compared himself to former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who visited Moscow to meet with former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev during the brief Russian-Georgian War in August 2008.

That was an example of the political leadership that Orban wanted to emulate through his shuttle diplomacy. He then elaborated that nothing will happen if peace is considered from a purely bureaucratic perspective and that it must be worked for since it won’t happen on its own. Talks are the first step towards this end since they reopen the diplomatic relationship and communication channels. Orban then ended the interview by once again hinting at his surprise meeting on Monday.

Altogether, it’s clear that he’s sincere in his mediation efforts, though Zelensky remains recalcitrant and his Foreign Ministry expressed outrage that Orban conducted talks with Putin on the conflict without their country’s participation. Zelensky’s senior aide Mikhail Podolyak also just said that any potential mediators shouldn’t demand an immediate ceasefire. Be that as it may, the military-strategic dynamics of the conflict might eventually lead to Zelensky making use of Orban’s mediation services.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/orban-sh ... ed-insight

Interpreting A Top EU Think Tank’s Latest Survey On Polish Attitudes Towards Ukraine

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUL 08, 2024

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While a sizeable minority of the population conforms with the stereotype of Poles being gung-ho about NATO’s proxy war on Russia in Ukraine, a roughly equal minority has soured on it, while Poles as a whole are still moderately pro-Ukrainian likely due to socio-cultural and historical factors.

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) published its latest survey on “The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine”, which includes detailed insight into European societies’ views on these subjects. The present piece will only analyze Poles’ views though since it’s beyond the scope to analyze other societies’. This subject has already been covered twice this year thus far as the reader can see from the following two analyses that they should consider skimming:

* 21 February: “A Top EU Think Tank’s Poll Proved That Polish Views Towards Ukraine Are Noticeably Shifting”

* 27 March: “What Do The Latest Surveys Say About Poles’ Attitudes Towards Ukraine & The Farmers’ Protests?”

The ECFR’s latest survey included some of the same questions as the one that was published in February, and comparisons will be mentioned whenever it’s relevant, but there are also many new questions too that add a lot more insight into Polish society’s views towards Ukraine. The purpose of this exercise is to report their current views, identify how they changed if that’s relevant, and interpret the overall importance of this data.

When asked about the Ukrainian Conflict’s most likely outcome, 19.7% said that it’ll end in Ukrainian victory, 14.3% said that it’ll end in a Russian one, while 33.9% said that it’ll end in a compromise. This compares to 17%, 14%, and 27% from the last survey. When asked about the outcome if Ukraine receives increased weapons, the data changes to 34.7%, 7.4%, and 29.2%. That follow-up question wasn’t included in the original survey so there’s no prior data to compare.

The next question was about when the conflict will end, with 8% of Poles predicting it’ll be within the next year, 51% foreseeing an end somewhere between 1-5 years, 10% longer than that, and 4% believe that it’ll never end. As for those who consider Russia’s military strength to be a barrier to Ukraine reconquering its lost territories, 50% of Poles think it’s a large one and 23% deem it a moderate one, while 7% think it’s a small barrier and just 3% think it’s none at all.

Poles were then asked about the likelihood of Russia attacking a European country, which 15% of Poles assessed as very likely and 35% as rather likely compared to 8% who assessed it as very unlikely and 23% as rather unlikely. As for a NATO-Russian hot war, which 5% said was very likely and 21% said rather likely compared to 12% who think it’s very unlikely and 39% who think it’s rather unlikely. In other words, 50% expect Russia to attack a European country, but only 26% think this will lead to war with NATO.

This either indicates distrust in NATO’s commitment to Article 5 or Poles are assuming that Moldova and/or Georgia, neither of which are NATO members, will be attacked. It’s unclear, but the second explanation is most likely. The next question produced the most surprising results compared to the first ECFR survey. The latest one said that 9% of Poles considered the EU’s role in the conflict to very positive and 42% rather positive compared to 5% who considered it very negative and 8% rather negative.

Just several months ago, however, 34% had a positive assessment and 31% a negative one, with no option at the time for clarifying the degree to which they held each view unlike the latest survey. It’s unclear what accounts for this drastic change since the latest EU Parliamentary elections proved that Poles’ views remain more or less just as partisan as during last fall’s parliamentary ones. One possibility is that Ukraine’s security guarantee agreements and talks with EU countries influenced their impression.

Moving along, Poles were then asked about whether Ukraine’s allies should increase ammo and weapons supplies to it, which 66% said was a good idea compared to 18% who said that it was a bad one. Building upon that topic and the preceding one, 50% of Poles believe that the EU should support Ukraine in reconquering its lost territories while 26% think that it should push Kiev towards peace talks. This compares to 47% and 23% from the first survey earlier this year so no significant change occurred.

Another interesting point where the data remained the same concerns Poles’ views of whether their country is at war with Russia. 20% agreed and 62% disagreed during the latest survey, which is roughly the same as what those who shared their views on this sometime last year said at 22% and 60%. That question wasn’t included in the survey from early 2024 but in an earlier one before that. The takeaway is that Poland’s change of leadership last year had no influence on Poles’ stance towards this question.

When asked how they felt about Ukraine joining the EU, 48% of Poles said that it was a good idea compared to the 31% who said that it was a bad one. 69% of the first believe that it would help end the conflict (29%), that Ukraine is culturally part of Europe and belongs in the EU (22%), and that this would make the EU more secure (18%). As for the second, 74% believe that Ukraine is too corrupt (26%), it would cost the EU too much (18%), make the EU less secure (15%), and negatively impact Poland (15%).

Relatedly, 5% of Poles think that Ukraine will join the EU within the next year while 35% think that it’ll be between the next 1-5 years, which compares to 25% who think it’ll take longer than 5 years and 13% who think it’ll never happen. As a reminder, 62% earlier predicted that the conflict will end within the next 5 years, so 22% of them (or around more than a third of this category’s total) don’t believe that EU membership would occur within that timeframe.

Drawing near the end, the latest survey showed that just 14% of Poles supporting their national troops fighting in Ukraine compared to 69% who oppose it, which is a slight change from the earlier hyperlinked survey from spring by a popular radio station which showed that 9.4% supported it. This might be explained by a growing awareness among some about Ukraine’s military weaknesses and the attendant fear that the West might be strategically defeated by Russia unless Poland conventionally intervenes.

Of those who supported this, 62% want Poland to provide technical assistance while 58% want it to patrol the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, which has recently seen a Ukrainian military buildup that occurred over a month after the survey was taken in May. Only 14% want Poland to directly fight Russia. What this shows is that even those who want Poland to conventionally intervene in the conflict are overwhelmingly in favor of their troops only playing a non-combat role.

Finally, 53% of Poles agreed that the Ukrainian Conflict showed that Poland should spend more on defense even if this is at the expense of cutting spending on health, education, and crime prevention, while just 23% disagreed. 15% “don’t know” while 9% said “neither”, whatever the latter is supposed to convey, though both can be assumed to disagree with the question. Therefore, the country is roughly split in half over this emotive issue.

The takeaway from the ECFR’s latest survey is that a sizeable minority of the Polish population holds views that contradict popular stereotypes. Casual observers assume that most Poles are gung-ho about NATO’s proxy war on Russia in Ukraine, though the reality is that quite a few aren’t, even though some of them do indeed conform with this expectation. The majority of the population is actually just “moderately” in support. Here’s a review of the most relevant data points in support of this conclusion.

33% believe that the conflict will end with a compromise; 31% don’t’ expect Russia to attack a European country; 51% think that a NATO-Russian hot war is unlikely; 62% don’t consider Poland at war with Russia; 13% deem the EU’s role in the conflict to be negative; 31% don’t think that Ukraine should join the bloc; 18% think that sending more ammo and arms there is a bad idea; 26% think that it should push Ukraine towards peace talks instead; 69% oppose sending Polish troops to Ukraine in any capacity; and 47% of them can be considered against raising military spending at the expense of social spending.

By contrast, just 19.7% think that the conflict will end with Ukrainian victory; 50% think that Russia will attack a European country; 26% fear that a NATO-Russian hot war is likely; just 20% consider Poland to be at war with Russia; 51% deem the EU’s role in the conflict to be positive; 48% want Ukraine to join the EU; 66% want more military aid to Ukraine; 50% think that it should continue aiding that country till it reconquers its lost territories; only 14% want Polish troops there (and less than 2% of those surveyed want them to fight Russia); and 51% want to raise defense spending at the expense of social spending.

As can be seen, while a sizeable minority of the population conforms with the stereotype of Poles being gung-ho about NATO’s proxy war on Russia in Ukraine, a roughly equal minority has soured on it even though that doesn’t automatically mean that they’re anti-Ukrainian or anti-Western. Most Poles as a whole are moderately pro-Ukrainian, which can be attributed to socio-cultural and historical factors, but they’re not radical Russophobes like casual observers might have hitherto assumed.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/interpre ... hink-tanks

******

Election results in France
July 8, 13:06

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Results of the elections in France.

1. Conglomerate of the left and greens - 182 seats.
2. Macron's party - 168 seats
. 3. Le Pen's party - 143 seats.
4. Republicans - 45 seats.

No one can achieve a majority without creating unnatural "unions".
This alignment guarantees the prolongation of serious political instability in France until mid-2025.
Why this is good was written here https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9252108.html

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9252925.html

Regarding expectations of “our victories” in any elections in the West.

The experience of Italy and Meloni has taught some nothing.
Expectations of Sunak's failure and the victory of the Labor Party, expectations of Macron's failure and the victory of Le Pen's party.

Everyone continues to wait for non-existent "our elephants", which were not and are not there. "Ours" are not there. Whoever comes to power there now, they will continue to support the war, which they are forced to publicly say, because the European establishment, which stands behind these parties, in its majority supports the war or makes money on this war. Therefore, everyone will be required to make ritual statements about continuing to support Ukraine.

The same will happen in Germany, when the traffic light coalition is defeated there and the CDU/CSU returns to power one way or another, which will also support the war, which it does not hide at all.

Therefore, Russia benefits not from the victory of non-existent "our elephants", but from the growth of internal instability and political chaos within the countries of the West, generated by objective socio-economic and political reasons. The same applies to the elections in the US, where internal instability caused by the struggle of two groups of the American establishment for power is a more convenient scenario for Russia than an unconditional victory of one of the parties.

In the case of the elections in France, they will preserve political instability until at least 2025 and will not allow France to solve any of the strategic problems caused by Macron's rule.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9252108.html

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:11 pm

France: Violent Riots Erupt After Leftists Win Parliamentary Elections
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JULY 8, 2024
Al Mayadeen

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PARIS, FRANCE - JULY 07: Demonstrators climb on the Monument a la Republique during a protest following the legislative election results on July 7, 2024 in Paris, France. The National Rally party was expected to have a strong showing in the second round of France's parliamentary election, which was called by the French president last month after his party performed poorly in the European election. (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images)

Violent nationwide protests erupted on Sunday after the left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) coalition’s unexpected win, which allowed the alliance to secure the most seats in France’s parliamentary elections.


The circulated footage showcased masked protesters igniting flames and causing violent disturbances throughout the streets of France, resulting in thousands of riot police being deployed following the loss of the far-right National Rally (RN).

The protests erupted after the election results were announced. The NPF obtained 182 seats, while President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance secured the second-place position with 163 seats. Despite the RN’s strong electoral triumph in the first round, it attained third place, acquiring 143 seats in parliament.

French leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon described the left wing’s victory as an “immense relief for a majority of people in our country.”

Following the defeat of Macron’s centrist alliance, the president’s Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his resignation but said he will continue to “stay on as long as necessary” due to the upcoming Paris Olympics that will be held later this month.

However, the French Presidency later stated that Macron decided to keep Attal as PM.

Meet France’s left-wing coalition leaders

With the far-right French winning the European parliamentary elections last month, the left-wing parties united in a coalition led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

However, the leftist founder of the La France Insoumise party faced severe criticism for his stances regarding the war on Gaza, and some accused him of “antisemitism”.

Following the coalition’s leading election results, Mélenchon said, on Sunday, “We must recognize the State of Palestine.”

This coalition has been perceived by some as weak, especially since it includes different party leaders. However, what reportedly united them was their opposition to Jordan Bardella from the National Rally and French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.

Green Party led by Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier, leader of the Green Party, emerged as one of the prominent voices in the left-wing campaign during these elections.

Early on, the 37-year-old candidate called on the NFP, in the face of the far-right, advocating a joint effort to withdraw candidates in the second round in favour of those best positioned to defeat the far-right.

Tondelier also confronted members of Macron’s coalition, which she said resembles the far-right.

Tondelier has led the French Green Party since December 2022. She hails from the northern town of Hénin-Beaumont. Last week, she also remarked that the debates in these elections were “very male-dominated” after her participation in the final debate on BFMTV was canceled in favor of individual interviews.

Many French newspapers have described Tondelier, recognizable by her signature green jacket, as a leading new voice for the left wing.

La France Insoumise led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a leftist, founded his current party La France Insoumise in 2016 before running for the presidency for the second time in the 2017 elections.

The 72-year-old politician has had a long career in politics: he became a member of the House of Representatives at the age of 35, a European legislator in 2009, and finished third behind Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the 2022 presidential election.

Socialist Party led by Olivier Faure

Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure was the first person to speak on behalf of the NFP in the election debates.

Trained as a lawyer, Faure became an advisor to Labor Minister Martine Aubry in 1997 and later a deputy to François Hollande when the former president was leading the Socialist Party.

Faure was first elected as a member of parliament in 2012 and began leading the Socialists in 2018. By that time, the party had lost much of its support, with Macron securing a majority in the National Assembly with his presidential party.

At the local level, the Socialists remain a political force. They also recently advanced in the European elections with a coalition list led by Raphaël Glucksmann.

Communist Party led by Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel has led the French Communist Party since 2018, after being first elected to parliament in 2017.

He grew up in northern France and worked as a journalist before entering politics, joining the Young Communists movement early on.

Roussel lost his seat in the first round of early legislative elections to a far-right candidate and was less present during the campaign than other members of the coalition.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/07/ ... elections/

*******

The Polish-Ukrainian Security Pact Puts Ukraine On The Path To Becoming A Polish Client State

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUL 09, 2024

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This is the US’ reward to Poland for replacing its conservative-nationalist government with a liberal-globalist one and then comprehensively subordinating itself to Germany.

Poland and Ukraine signed their long-negotiated “security guarantee” pact on Monday during Zelensky’s surprise visit to Warsaw ahead of this week’s NATO Summit in DC. It can be read in full here, with a lot of it concerning standard military cooperation of the sort that Ukraine already agreed to with the UK and the US, but there are also unique security details and plenty of socio-economic and political ones too. Here’s what most folks might have missed about this ~9000-word pact in ascending order of importance:

----------

* There’s A Very Emotive Socio-Cultural, Historical, & Political Background

The preamble notes that they “reaffirm their common historical legacy, and recognize the closeness of both cultures, languages, political traditions of their Nations”, which is unlike any of the ties that Ukraine has with the other NATO members with whom it’s already signed “security guarantees”. The subtext is that there’s a special relationship between them, which hints at Poland obtaining a more privileged position over all Ukrainian affairs than others due to its former status as that country’s ‘big brother’.

* New Curriculum Guidelines For Schoolbooks Aim To Foster Reconciliation

The parties agreed to “develop common instruments for historical research as well as curriculum guidelines for school textbooks on history of relations of the two States and Nations, particularly building on the Polish-Ukrainian brotherhood in arms in the 1920 war with Bolshevik Russia.” They also expressed a desire to “seek – with the support of research centres – reconciliation with regard to contentious issues resulting from the difficult history of both States”, all of which could lead to whitewashing history.

* Poland Will Wage Information Warfare On Russia In Coordination With Ukraine

The pact stipulates that Poland will “promote EU, NATO and other multilateral efforts and initiatives aimed at reaching more effectively key audiences in and outside of Europe with facts about [the Ukrainian Conflict from Kiev’s perspective]”. This aligns with the purpose of the newly created Warsaw-based “Ukraine Communications Group” from last month, with the end result being that Ukraine’s international messaging will become increasingly supported by and therefore dependent upon Poland.

* Poland Will Behave As Ukraine’s ‘Big Brother’ In All International Fora

Polish information support of Ukraine will also extend to it supporting that country’s interests in international fora such as NATO, the G7, UN, OSCE, Council of Europe, OECD, the World Bank, the IMF, European financial institutions, and even the European Space Agency. By allowing Poland to behave as its ‘big brother’, Ukraine is tacitly accepting its ‘little brother’ status and the clear-cut hierarchy that’s de facto enshrined in their relations through this pact.

* Poland Will Guide Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic Integration Reform Processes

The abovementioned observation is confirmed by their pact declaring that Poland will guide Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration processes, including to rectify agricultural disputes, so as to facilitate its membership in the EU and NATO. Furthermore, “Poland is ready to deploy technical experts embedded in the Ukrainian administration”, which would entrench Polish influence over the government if Kiev agrees and essentially turn Ukraine into a Polish client state.

* Their Complex Economic Interdependence Will Further Intensify

On a related note, Poland and Ukraine committed to simplify the ease of doing business in one another’s countries, which is expected to lead to the full-spectrum expansion of trade and investment ties that draws them into an even more intense relationship of complex economic interdependence than before. Considering the power asymmetries between them, this could easily be lopsided in Poland’s support through the machinations of those Polish “technical experts embedded in the Ukrainian administration.”

* Poland Might Exploit More Physical Connectivity To Its Hegemonic Benefit

Building upon the preceding two points, the expansion of road, rail, energy, and air connectivity between them coupled with Ukraine’s failure to join the EU anytime soon will lead to a situation where Poland could leverage its gatekeeper status vis-à-vis Ukraine and the West for its hegemonic benefit. Poland’s privileged access to Ukrainian resources (natural and labor) and business opportunities (arms and reconstruction) could even fuel the former’s revival as a leading European power at the latter’s expense.

* Poland Will Remain The West’s Military-Logistical Hub For Ukraine

Poland’s promise to continue operating the Polish Logistics Hub (POLLOGHUB) in Rzeszow shows that both parties are confident that protesters won’t carry out any more long-term border closures. This observation testifies to their renewed mutual trust and desire to resolve their prior agricultural dispute, both of which were already touched upon earlier in this analysis. The point is that Western military-logistics aid to Ukraine will remain dependent on Poland and not diversify to Romania like some thought.

* Poland Will Continue Servicing & Repairing Ukrainian Military Equipment

It’s old news that Poland is servicing and repairing Ukrainian military equipment, but it’s still important to mention that they committed to continuing this since it means that Poland will serve as Ukraine’s repair shop for the indefinite future, one which is protected by the US’ nuclear umbrella. This state of affairs will enable Ukraine to continue fighting for as long as it wants to, potentially up to the last Ukrainian so to speak, and ensures that the conflict won’t end for some time absent a breakthrough.

* Poland Will Remain The Convergence Point For NATO-Ukrainian Cooperation

NATO-Ukrainian cooperation, which so incensed Russia that it was one of the reasons behind its special operation, will continue in Poland through the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre in Bygdoszcz. This first-of-its-kind joint institution launched earlier in the year and testifies to Poland’s role in serving as the West’s gateway to Ukraine, which will ensure that Polish-Russian relations remain tense since no meaningful reconciliation is possible so long as this state of affairs is in place.

* The Polish & Ukrainian Military-Industrial Complexes Are Poised To Merge

It’s not declared outright, but reading between the lines indicates that the Polish and Ukrainian military-industrial complexes (MIC) are poised to merge after Poland committed to including Ukrainian companies in its supply chains and Ukraine committed to including Polish enterprises in its purchases. Additionally, some Polish MIC companies plan to locate production in Ukraine, which could serve as the pretext for a conventional military intervention if Russia destroys these facilities.

* Mutual Security Is Mentioned But No Polish Troops Are Committed

Unlike Ukraine’s earlier pacts with the UK and the US, its latest one with Poland explicitly mentions “enhancing their mutual security and complementarity of their military development processes”. Although Poland doesn’t commit to dispatch troops to Ukraine, just like neither the UK nor the US did, this exceptional language reaffirms the notion that they have a special and privileged partnership. It also implies that troops could indeed possibly be sent in the future on that basis under certain circumstances.

* Trilateral Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian Military Cooperation Is Reaffirmed

The pact states that the training of Ukrainian troops in Poland and other military forms of support to Kiev through the trilateral Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian Brigade (LITPOLUKRBRIG) will continue. This little-known framework symbolically represents the modern-day military revival of the erstwhile Commonwealth. Its existence also shows that Ukraine considers itself part of that civilization and not Russia’s, and this brigade could function as the tip of the spear if Poland conventionally intervenes there.

* Poland Will Assemble A ‘Ukrainian Legion’ & Encourage Refugees To Return To Fight

The abovementioned framework will be complemented by the participation of Ukrainian refugees in Poland and elsewhere in Europe in Polish-led training processes, while Warsaw will encourage others to return home to serve in their armed forces at Kiev’s request. Some EU countries might expel Ukrainian refugees back to Poland if they didn’t apply for refugee status there first, after which they’d either be coerced to join the ‘Ukrainian Legion’ or return home to fight right away without Polish training.

* Poland Is Officially Considering Intercepting Russian Missiles

Even though it was assessed last April that “It Would Be Surprising If Polish Patriot Systems Were Used To Protect Western Ukraine”, primarily because the Anglo-American Axis expressed their opposition to it, Poland is still officially considering that scenario as proven by their pact. The caveat though is that they’d have to “follow the necessary procedures agreed by the States and organisations involved”, thus leaving it up to NATO (and therefore its Anglo-American Axis leaders) to decide, who might still disagree.

----------

As can be seen, the Polish-Ukrainian security pact puts Ukraine on the path to becoming a Polish client state, the outcome of which is the US’ reward to Poland for replacing its conservative-nationalist government with a liberal-globalist one and then comprehensively subordinating itself to Germany. The emerging division of labor is that Germany will build “Fortress Europe”, Poland will lead “Project Ukraine”, and the US will “Lead From Behind” by supervising and assisting both when required.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-poli ... urity-pact

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EU Undershoots 155MM Shell Capacity Target by More Than Half, Blames All Sorts of Things Besides Lack of Operational Capability
Posted on July 9, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. We’ve long been skeptical of the idea that the Collective West could increase its weapons output to a meaningful degree to feed the bottomless Project Ukraine pit, let alone catch up with Russian levels….which by the way have increased markedly since the conflict in Ukraine began. Below we see a loyal US/NATO mouthpiece make a serious admission against interest, that the EU has not even been able to ramp of capacity of lowly but nevertheless very important 155mm shells. However it tries to somewhat obscure the lead via its original headline, Raw Material Shortages Weigh on EU Ammunition Production.

One reason why Ukraine’s allies are unable to increase production is unlike Russia, they never invested to create factories with surge capacity. Another reason is protracted and typically porky procurement processes. One more is a distaste for dirigisme, as in having the government step in and browbeat or even threaten to find a way to do it on its own.

But the end result is the same: countries that seem unable to manage their way out of paper bags even for supposedly crucial armaments. Recall that most NATO members have already stripped their cupboards bare of weapons stocks, including 155mm shells.

Originally published by RFE/RL. Cross posted from OilPrice

The EU’s production capacity for 155mm artillery shells is estimated to be less than half of the figures announced by senior EU officials.
The EU has delivered only about half of the 1 million shells it promised to Ukraine within a year, with significant delays.
Shortages of gunpowder, explosives, and raw materials, as well as a lack of long-term contracts, are hindering the ramp-up of shell production in the EU.
The European Union’s capacity to produce 155 mm artillery ammunition may be less than half as large as public estimates by senior EU officials indicate, affecting the bloc’s ability to keep promises about supplies to Ukraine, Schemes and its partners in a journalistic investigation have found.

The finding is a result of months of reporting by Schemes — the investigative unit of RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service — and other outlets in a consortium of European media on shell production, a crucial factor in Ukraine’s defense against the Russian invasion.

In addition to the capacity issue, interviews with ammunition producers, buyers, government officials, policy advisers, and defense experts in EU member states and Ukraine showed that the EU has given Ukraine about half as many shells as it has promised, with a significant delay.

In March, the European Commission said that thanks to its measures, European annual production capacity for 155 mm shells had reached 1 million a month earlier.

Three months later, in June, Thierry Breton, the European commissioner for the internal market, said that EU producers would reach an annual capacity of 1.7 million 155 mm shells by the end of this year and that capacity would continue to grow. However, according to a high-ranking European arms industry source, the current capacity is about one-third of this.

“It’s a very bad idea to convince ourselves that we have three times the actual production capacity and make decisions based on that. Then suddenly to find out that nothing is coming out of the factories and you cannot supply Ukraine and the NATO alliance,” the source said.

Like some others cited in this report, the source spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject.

This testimony aligns with that of two other knowledgeable industry sources journalists spoke to in June — high-level officials in an EU country and in Ukraine — who assessed the annual capacity of European 155 mm ammunition production at over half a million.

“Declarations of the EU leaders regarding the 155 mm production capacity that is to be reached by the end of this year are not reasonable. Production increases across Europe are lagging behind, with the current total capacity reaching about 580,000 shells per year,” said a well-informed artillery industry source from Slovakia.

Two other documents estimate the European industry’s annual capacity as of the beginning of the year at not much higher than half a million.

According to a December 2023 Estonian Defense Ministry report, the EU production capacity is about 600,000 shells a year. This fits with German arms maker Rheinmetall’s January 2024 estimate, an internal document that journalists obtained, which says that all Western European arms makers taken together could produce around 550,000 shells annually as of the beginning of this year.

In response to questions from the journalistic consortium, the European Commission said that it based its assessment of the European ammunition production capacity on “facts” and that it was “taking into account ongoing investments” into the industry’s scale-up.

The consortium — which includes Schemes, Germany’s Die Welt, Czech outlet Investigace.CZ, Poland’s Vsquare and Frontstory.PL, Finland’s Iltalehti, Slovakia’s Jan Kuciak Investigative Center, Delfi Estonia, and The Investigative Desk — examined the factors behind the pace of European ammunition-production capacity building.

Arms companies said the problem is a global shortage of gunpowder and explosives and a lack of cash to fuel the ammunition industry, with governments reluctant to sign long-term contracts.

High-ranking governmental and industry sources with whom Schemes and its partners spoke blamed ammunition shipment delays to Ukraine on EU bureaucracy and sluggishness and asserted that inadequate EU assessments of its own production capacity were among the causes of lagging supplies.

Ukraine is purchasing some ammunition on its own and plans to start mass production of 155 mm shells in the second half of 2024.

However, Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin said that Ukraine’s efforts will always be insufficient: “We will never be able to produce as much ammunition as our armed forces need now,” he told Schemes.

The current need is 200,000 shells a month, according to Defense Minister Rustem Umerov — more than the EU and the United States combined can manage.

“The entire free world cannot meet this need because we have an active front line of 1,500 kilometers, which has not happened since the Second World War,” Kamyshin said.

The U.S. presidential election in November is adding to concerns in Kyiv about future aid and arms deliveries.

The Game Changer

NATO-standard artillery has been a game-changer on the front line, former Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov says.

Ukraine, which inherited Soviet artillery, received the first substantial batches of 155 mm artillery guns and shells in the spring of 2022, not long after Russia launched the full-scale invasion on February 24.

However, this didn’t happen in a flash.

As Russian forces massed at the border before the invasion, Kyiv and its partners were searching for Soviet-caliber ammunition for the country’s defense. Ukraine had roughly 1,000 pieces of 122 mm and 152 mm artillery and only one 155 mm NATO-standard howitzer, the Bohdana, domestically produced and at the time only a test sample.

Knowing this, the United States offered Ukraine Soviet ammunition it bought for Afghanistan and stored across the EU, Reznikov told Schemes.

“We negotiated with the Americans and received full access to all their warehouses in Europe that they had accumulated ammunition for the operation in Afghanistan,” he said.

This ammunition helped Ukraine hugely, he said, but it didn’t last long.

Soon, it became clear that Europe’s limited capacity to produce Soviet-caliber ammunition could not keep up with demand. According to Reznikov, in the early days of the all-out war, Ukraine used 20,000 shells of all available calibers – one-third of what Russia fired but 12 times more Soviet-caliber shells than Europe could make in a day.

In spring 2022, Ukraine persuaded Britain and the United States to give it 155-caliber artillery and shells. Other countries followed suit.

Ukraine now has at least 12 types of 155 mm artillery from around the globe, Schemes found, in addition to the Bohdana. The total number of 155 mm artillery pieces at Ukraine’s disposal rose from one at the start of the invasion to 500 to 600 now, said Mykola Byelyeskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv and a senior defense analyst at the charitable foundation Come Back Alive, which supports Ukraine’s military.

Reznikov said that 155 mm artillery is more accurate, technologically advanced, and longer-range than the 152 mm Soviet equivalent. Most important, NATO countries had more of it.

Soldiers Schemes interviewed at the front in the Kharkiv Oblast said that since they switched from Soviet artillery to NATO guns, they have experienced less drastic ammunition shortages.

“At the beginning of the full-scale war, when we worked with 152 mm caliber artillery, we had to save up shells because we could not always get them in time, and they were not always available,” said Artur, an artilleryman with Ukraine’s 40th Separate Artillery Brigade.

Since he switched to an AHS Krab, a Polish 155 mm howitzer, ammunition shortages have become less of a problem.

“It can do anything. It can hit absolutely any target. It can be a stronghold, a pillbox, dugouts, houses, heavy, medium, light vehicles, infantry,” Artur said of the Krab.

Ramping Up

The NATO-standard shells have not been a cure-all, however, and Ukrainian forces tend to run short because they use the ammunition faster than the EU can replenish its stock.

“Experience from the war in Ukraine shows the immense demand for artillery ammunition. The production capacity available in the Western world is not designed for these quantities,” Rheinmetall, one of the largest European arms producers, said in a statement in June.

The internal Rheinmetall document from January 2024, which Schemes obtained as part of the journalistic consortium, included a breakdown of what it said was the annual Western European ammunition production capacity of 550,000 artillery rounds at the time. Rheinmetall itself could make 350,000 shells, it said, while the other top producers — Finnish-Norwegian Nammo, the French branch of KNDS, Britain’s BAE, and Slovakia’s MSM — could produce 200,000 shells.

The Rheinmetall estimate contradicts the European Commission’sclaim that in January 2024, the EU’s production capacity reached 1 million rounds of ammunition per year.

Breton has predicted an even greater increase in production, to 1.7 million shells in 2024. His spokesperson told Die Welt that the official bases his assessment of the production capacity on the data shared by governments and industry across the EU member states.

“We therefore stand [by] our estimation that production capacity of 1.5 to 1.7 million can be achieved under realistic operational conditions in response to orders received,” Breton’s spokesperson said.

Documents and statements from sources suggest that to deliver on that estimate, the European arms industry must increase its capacity by two to three times this year.

Multiple sources in the European arms industry said they struggle to invest big when governments don’t finance or reimburse further capacity building: They need long-term contracts.

“It is a challenge because we are making investments of billions or hundreds of millions in machinery and hiring more people. We need a longer horizon,” one industry source told The Investigative Desk.

Byelyeskov believes the industry’s fears are justified.

“The main contracts are made on a governmental level, and if there are none, the manufacturer will not invest in additional production capacity or hire people,” Byelyeskov told Schemes.

“In Europe, it’s an interesting game,” he said. “Private producers say, ‘Show us the money’…. And governments say, ‘Show us the ability to produce,’ and it’s a vicious circle — who will be the first to show that?”

In June, Rheinmetall got what it had been seeking.

The German government has significantly expanded the existing framework agreement, signing a new one, the largest in the company’s history, worth 8.5 billion euros. According to a German government document detailing the deal, which was obtained by the journalistic consortium, the company will supply over 2 million 155 mm shells to several European countries by 2030.

Other European ammunition producers haven’t had similar success in securing such large state orders. Nammo, a state-owned Finnish-Norwegian arms company, says it only has short-term contracts for a few years ahead.

The company plans to triple the production of 155 mm shells at its Finnish factory in Sastamala by 2026, even though it has received no orders for this additional capacity yet. Colonel Mikko Myllykangas, a manager in charge of relations with the company’s primary client, the Finnish military, said Nammo is pumping 200 million euros into its Finnish facilities alone.

“So here is an opportunity for politicians to fulfill their promises. We have the capacity and just need orders,” Myllykangas told Iltalehti.

Other producers also claim to have gradually boosted investments despite the lack of state contracts.

Czech STV Group plans to invest 40 million euros in production over the next two years. MSM Group in Slovakia says it will inject 100 million euros into ramping up production. KNDS France has invested 300 million euros — 20 percent of its revenue — into the “war economy,” a term used by Breton to refer to the expansion of the defense industry.

While NAMMO, Rheinmetall, and MSM all say they have scaled up ammunition production, such statements sometimes apply only to ammunition cartridge cases, or shells. Full artillery rounds also comprise explosives, initiators, and modular charges, and limited access to these components has hindered production increases.

French explosives maker Eurenco — the European leader in the field whose clients include Rheinmetall, KNDS France, and MSM — told The Investigative Desk it could supply modular charges for up to half a million artillery shells in 2024. A modular charge is an explosive that propels the shell out of a barrel.

Gunpowder and TNT, necessary for ammunition production, are also in short supply in Europe because few producers exist.

“It is impossible to double the capacity of explosives production in a matter of days, weeks, or months,” Martin Vencl, a spokesperson for Explosia, a Czech producer of explosives, told Investigace.CZ. Explosia plans to double production of gunpowder and propellants by 2026-27.

European arms production stagnated after the Cold War’s end, and reviving it is not a matter of flicking a switch.

“For 30 years, no one has invested in this, and now everyone has rushed to this limited pool of people, production facilities, and components,” Byelyeskov said. “It’s clear that [boosting production in the EU] will take time. The market is responding, but not as quickly as we would like.”

The EU does take action to support the industry, but observers say its efforts have been insufficient.

“The EU and the governments have been a bit slow,” said former NATO official Camille Grand.

“We’re still falling short of our targets, I think, because we underestimated them,” said Grand, NATO’s assistant secretary-general for defense investment until November 2022.

This year, the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) investment plan disbursed 500 million euros to ammunition and raw material producers in the EU. In March, the European Commission developed a second investment plan, the European Defense Investment Program (EDIP), worth 1.5 billion euros.

Russian production is much higher than even the EU targets. Estimates of its annual capacity range from 4 to 4.5 million artillery shells.

Not Only Ukraine

Not all the shells produced in the EU go to Ukraine — EU states also reserve ammunition for themselves. They need to replenish their own stocks after supplying Ukraine, and they aim to meet the NATO requirement of having enough shells in their warehouses for 30 days of high-intensity warfare.

“I think there are maybe a couple of countries in Europe that have 155 mm supplies for 30 days,” Kusti Salm, permanent secretary of the Estonian Defense Ministry, told Delfi Estonia.

“The warehouses are empty, that’s clear. NATO’s force targets are not being met either,” said Magnus-Valdemar Saar, national armaments director of Estonia.

European producers also sell abroad.

“Our production…is primarily for France, our biggest customer. France keeps the ammunition for itself or [provides it to] Ukraine,” a KNDS France spokesperson told The Investigative Desk. “We’ve always been 50-50, half France, half export, and right now the French share is slightly larger than the export share.”

The company says it sells abroad to have extra cash for a production ramp-up.

A spokesperson for Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs chief, told The Investigative Desk that as much as 40 percent of European production goes to third countries.

Ammunition Donations

If shell-production capacity has fallen short, so have actual supplies to Ukraine.

In March 2023, the EU committed to sending Ukraine 1 million shells within a year. But it sent a little over 500,000 rounds, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry told Schemes in May. The European Commission confirmed this number to The Investigative Desk in June.

The so-called Czech ammunition initiative, which also involves Denmark and the Netherlands, has not yet lived up to initial expectations, either.

In February, President Petr Pavel said the Czech Republic had identified 800,000 artillery shells globally that could quickly be directed to Ukraine if there was money. But progress has been slow, and a high-ranking Ukrainian Defense Ministry source said the first shipment, which arrived in June, consisted of fewer than 50,000 shells.

A source familiar with the initiative told RFE/RL that out of 15 countries that volunteered to buy ammunition for Ukraine jointly, only six had chipped in as of mid-June, while the other nine said the money was coming.

“So far, we have raised enough funds, including pledges that we are counting, for 500,000 [shells],” Tomas Kopecny, the Czech governmental envoy for the reconstruction of Ukraine, told Investigace.CZ. “It’s a question of finance. The problem is not political leaning so much as lack of funding.”

Former NATO official Grand believes the EU and member states failed to swiftly and fully deliver on their promises of ammunition supplies to Ukraine because they thought it would be an easier job than it was.

“There was a bit of an idea that all you had to do was give money, and you’d get shells. This betrayed a sort of ignorance of the complexity of today’s arms market, which is a high-tech market even for relatively simple things like 155s,” said Grand.

“We were really on a flawed logic. There is no stock and there is not even necessarily a stock of spare parts or even raw materials,” he said.

Western weapons-supply disruptions quickly undermine Ukraine’s capabilities on the battlefield. One example is the summer counteroffensive in 2023, which fell far short of its objectives.

“Partly because we dragged our feet in delivering the tanks and all that, the counteroffensive was probably more limited than it could have been. So we have some responsibility.… The lack of ammunition played a part,” Grand told The Investigative Desk.

Since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has experienced drastic ammunition shortages three times — most recently this spring, when a six-month delay in a $61 billion U.S. aid package badly damaged its ability to defend against Russian forces.

The United States says it has shipped more than 3 million 155 mm artillery rounds to Ukraine since February 2022.

In addition to the coordinated EU support, European countries also individually donate ammunition to Ukraine, but numbers are kept secret.

Domestic Production

Ukraine independently buys and produces ammunition for itself, but the domestic production and procurement volume is far smaller than that of Kyiv’s Western partners.

After the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine began mass production of Soviet-caliber ammunition for the first time since independence. It has reached a capacity of a few tens of thousands of shells a month.

Meanwhile, “Active work is under way at several state and private defense companies to establish mass production of 155 mm shells,” Ukroboronprom, the state defense conglomerate, told Schemes. “The first batch has already been produced.”

Ukroboronprom claims that domestically produced 155 mm shells will be compatible with all types of artillery of that caliber. Ukraine has 13 different types.

Compatibility is a weakness in NATO arms: The Swedish howitzer Archer and the French howitzer CAESAR, for example, work best with shells made by the same country specially for them.

According to documents Schemes obtained, Ukrainian soldiers have had experience working with over 20 different types of NATO-standard 155 mm shells. They must adjust their guns for each type of shell, which may complicate their work.

In addition to imports and its own production, Ukraine is pursuing joint ventures with Western ammunition producers. According to the Strategic Industries Ministry, Ukrainian arms companies have negotiated with Rheinmetall, and separately with two unnamed U.S. firms, to produce 155 mm shells together.

“Launching joint ventures with foreigners to produce 155 mm shells in Ukraine will take more than two years. Such production will be based on the market principle of sale, but Ukraine will have the ‘right of the first night,'” Kamyshin told Schemes.

Separately, German-French KNDS is teaming up with an unnamed Ukrainian partner to produce 155 mm shells under KNDS license, the first such case in Ukraine, according to Kamyshin. Another Western arms producer will soon do the same, a source told journalists.

Additionally, Ukraine buys what ammunition it can afford on the global market. According to multiple industry sources, a single 155 mm round costs 3,000 to 5,000 euros. More advanced rounds can cost 8,000 euros.

Customs information from the trade data company ImportGenius for July 2023 shows that Ukraine imported NATO-standard 155 mm for over 39 million euros that month alone.

Among the importers of 155 mm shells listed by ImportGenius is Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency. Its head, Maryna Bezrukova, told Schemes she will buy Ukrainian 155 mm shells as soon as they become available.

Until then, she says she orders the best of what the European market has to offer.

“EU production is growing,” Bezrukova said. “However, to put it mildly, the production of 155 mm shells in Europe seems insufficient because of the shortage of raw materials and explosives.”

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Thu Jul 11, 2024 2:20 pm

Germans Support Reintroduction of Wealth Tax

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Gini coefficient of wealth inequality as of 2019. Photo: X/ @dumbleritos

July 10, 2024 Hour: 8:41 am

Even among the rich, an awareness has developed that money should be distributed more equitably.

On Tuesday, the Stern magazine published a survey showing that the majority of Germans supports the reintroduction of a wealth tax, which has been the subject of debate since it was abolished in 1997.

Two out of three citizens, or 62 percent, favors private individuals and companies having to pay such a tax on assets of one million euros (US$1.08 million) or more, the Forza survey found.

Approval of the idea also spans different political camps, with majorities among voters from left-wing, social, and conservative voter groups. Only voters from the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) are largely against such a move.

The gap between the rich and the poor in Europe’s largest economy is widening. According to a recent Oxfam study, the wealth of the five richest Germans has grown by 74 percent to US$155 billion since 2020. The richest 1 percent alone owns 41.1 percent of the country’s total financial assets.


France, Spain, and Switzerland still levy a wealth tax, but even among the rich, an awareness has developed that money should be distributed more equitably.

An initiative called “taxmenow” has been formed by wealthy people in German-speaking countries who are calling for higher taxation. Many other organizations are also campaigning for the reintroduction of the wealth tax.

“It is time for the super-rich in this country to finally take greater responsibility and make their contribution to a fair society,” said Verena Bentele from the VdK social association.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/germans- ... ealth-tax/

(Why just the 'super-rich'? Those 'poor' millionaires can cough up too.)

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Orbán Shuttle Diplomacy Highlights EU Representation Problem but Not in the Way the Pro-war Crowd Claims
Posted on July 10, 2024 by Conor Gallagher

Whatever one thinks of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s politics it’s tough not to acknowledge his talent for getting under the skin of the Davos crowd that runs the EU. He certainly wasted no time in putting Hungary’s six-month turn as rotating president of the Council of the EU to good use. Orbán has assigned himself a peace mission that has already taken him to Kiev, Moscow, and Beijing. He’s now in Washington, D.C. for the NATO summit.

Orbán might have his own reasons for pursuing a role in an eventual peace in Ukraine, but he says that he’s simply trying to find the quickest way to stop the conflict. He also argues he’s about the only leader in the West who can talk to both Moscow and Kiev due to other leaders burning so many bridges with Russia or simply refusing to talk. He’s probably right. Not only do the diplomats in Brussels not want to conduct a dialogue, but they are, according to Politico, “plotting ways to ground [Orbán’s] shuttle diplomacy initiative.”

Nevertheless, after his meetings, Orbán said he reports back to the EU27 leaders to “inform them and make some suggestions as to how we can proceed.” One can only imagine the level of outrage that provokes in the halls of government across the continent. As Politico describes:

EU diplomats aren’t buying it. There is growing annoyance over what they see as Orbán using his turn in the rotating Council chair to promote Hungary’s worldview. It’s one that’s been so often at odds with the EU majority, especially on aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. They’re planning to force the issue at Wednesday’s ambassador’s meeting.

EU diplomats against diplomacy are pressuring Orbán to shut down his efforts, and bloc countries are throwing tantrums, opting to send low-ranking officials to Hungary’s first Council meeting on Tuesday. That might be a sign of what’s to come as there is talk of boycotting the upcoming Council meetings in Budapest, but EU diplomats are also already throwing around the threat of stripping Hungary of the rotating presidency, advocated for and the process of which is laid out here:
Following the first week of #HU24EU which 🇭🇺 PM #Orbán actively exploited to ridicule & troll the EU & spread instability, I would like to remind that it would be still possible to deprive him the #CouncilPresidency & move on with an extended #Polish one.
THREAD on why & how 1.

— Daniel Hegedus (@DanielHegedus82) July 8, 2024
EU diplomats deride Orban for conducting diplomacy, but polls show that Europeans are increasingly in favor of a negotiated end to the war. The question is why won’t other European officials acknowledge that fact.

Again, diplomats want to punish Hungary for conducting diplomacy – for the crime of conducting dialogue with one side of a war taking place in Europe. This is more of the same from the European elite who shut down and punish those who would even consider the Russian point of view.

Whether Orbán’s efforts ultimately help lead to a negotiated end to the conflict remains to be seen. He’s been roundly criticized by both Kiev and Brussels, but I wanted to focus here on the statements from other EU leaders that Orbán does not “represent the EU.”

For example: “The speed with which he’s been doing this trolling has been quite baffling,” one diplomat told Politico. “To use an expression from Lenin: Orbán is acting as a ‘useful idiot’ for attempts to undermine the unity of the EU.”

European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and the current and future high representatives, Josep Borrell and Kaja Kallas, criticized Orbán’s trips and emphasized that he does not have an EU mandate and that the presidency does not represent the EU.

It might be currently set up so that positions of power in Europe are almost exclusively filled with Atlanticist hacks who will do whatever the Americans tell them to do, but that does not mean Orbán’s peace efforts are only the product of one “useful idiot.”

He might not represent the EU in an official capacity in talks or have a mandate, but his peace efforts are representative of the positions of the EU people, which are increasingly opposed to the war. If there’s a problem with representation, it’s that there is but one Orbán willing to engage in talks while the halls of governments across the continent are chock full of slavish Atlanticists who only want war.

Maybe that’s precisely what bothers von der Leyen, Kallas, Michel, and others so much about Orbán’s efforts. They want to maintain the illusion that the EU is solidly behind the war effort – both in Ukraine and economically – against Russia until the end of time. Yet, their own polling shows that at best, Europeans are torn over the issue of Ukraine.

In many cases, clear majorities oppose the bloc’s role in prolonging the conflict. And overall, support has been falling ever since the euphoria wore off in 2022.

Apologies in advance for the abundance of polling, but there are an abundance that could be read in support of Orban’s position. These are also sources friendly to the war effort, so if anything, they might even oversell support. Additionally, these numbers emerge from an incredibly one-sided information environment where mainstream media and political figures regularly compare Putin to Hitler and anyone advocating for dialogue is demonized.

Here are results from the Spring 2024 Eurobarometer survey requested and coordinated by von der Leyen’s European Commission.

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A closer look shows, once again, how the working class and less well-to-do, which have taken the brunt of the pain from the war through inflation, real wage declines, industrial decline, remains more opposed to the war than wealthier respondents:

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Support is dropping across the board:

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The questions that the Commission is likely paying the most attention to, however:

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Let’s take a look at polling conducted in December from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR):

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Notably, the ECFR points out the following:

If the war tribe needed a capital, it would probably be Tallinn – as the capital of the country with the largest percentage of people in that tribe, although Poland and Denmark also see the war at the top of their crisis lists (in Denmark it is tied with climate).

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Naturally, the likely incoming EU foreign policy chief is Estonian Prime Minister and rabid Russophobe Kaja Kallas. Maybe she’ll be able to remind Europeans of the threat that Moscow is determined to march to the English Channel because fear of Russia is waning. From Euractiv:

Respondents fear climate-change-driven migration more than the security threat posed by Russia, according to a fresh survey for the Munich Security Conference (MSC) published on Monday (12 February).

European voters are also increasingly worried by “migration through war and climate change” and by the threat of radical Islamic terrorism, according to the latest Munich Security Index survey, which canvassed 12,000 people in the G7 countries, as well as Brazil, India, China, and South Africa.

The survey, which focused on 32 perceived risks, found that those threats are now viewed as even more important than a security threat posed by Moscow, which ranks fourth overall this year.

In last year’s survey, Russia’s war on Ukraine had been rated as the biggest threat to global security, particularly in the G7 countries.

While Russia was still the top risk for five G7 countries last year, only UK and Japanese citizens still consider it so this year, according to the survey. German citizens now only see Russia as the seventh greatest concern and Italians see it as the 12th.


Here are more recent May survey results from the European Council on Foreign Relations:

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The question that the Commission is likely paying the most attention to, however:

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And even more polling that really backs Orbán’s position to seek a negotiated settlement:

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Polling That the European Commission Should Be Paying Attention to but Likely Won’t

Declining trust in institutions:

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Broken political systems:

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Things going in the wrong direction:

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Quality of life getting worse for anyone not wealthy:

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Among respondents who aren’t wealthy polls show widespread dissatisfaction with the economy and very little belief that prospects will improve:

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In conclusion, while Orbán might not end the war, he can remind Europeans that dialogue is possible. Maybe it leads people to wonder just what other European leaders are doing not meeting with Putin, Xi, Zelensky and trying to find some pathway to end the conflict. Maybe they start to look at Borrell, Kallas, Baerbock, whoever the French foreign minister is, etc. and wonder what exactly these people do all day other than repeat Washington talking points.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... laims.html

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Interpreting The Polish Military Chief’s Decision To Prepare For “Full-Scale Conflict”

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUL 11, 2024

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This strongly hints that Poland isn’t ruling out a conventional intervention in Ukraine under certain circumstances and expects that it would rapidly escalate into another Polish-Russian War just like the one that broke out after World War I.

Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces General Wieslaw Kukula told a press conference on Wednesday that “Today, we need to prepare our forces for full-scale conflict, not an asymmetric-type conflict.” This came right after the newly signed Polish-Ukrainian security pact, which was summarized here and analyzed in detail here. The relevant takeaways are that Poland will obtain enormous economic stakes in Ukraine, will assemble a ‘Ukrainian Legion’, and is contemplating intercepting Russian missiles.

With these terms in mind and noting how Kukula’s comments coincided with the NATO Summit, some observers suspected that they signaled progress on Poland’s possible plans to conventionally intervene in Ukraine to safeguard its investments there if Russia threatens them or achieves a breakthrough. The military-strategic dynamics of the conflict have trended in Russia’s favor for the past year, but no game-changing developments have yet to occur, though Poland isn’t taking any chances.

Kukula’s decision to prepare for a “full-scale conflict” strongly hints that Poland isn’t ruling out a conventional intervention in Ukraine under the abovementioned circumstances and expects that it would rapidly escalate into another Polish-Russian War just like the one that broke out after World War I. Not coincidentally, the Polish-Ukrainian security pact stipulates that they’ll “build on the Polish-Ukrainian brotherhood in arms in the 1920 war with Bolshevik Russia” when crafting new school curricula.

The reader should also be reminded that their pact calls for the creation of a ‘Ukrainian Legion’ in Poland, which head of the National Security Bureau Jacek Siewiera said could potentially include “millions” of “volunteers”. It’s obvious that this claim is overly ambitious, but the point is that this fighting force could function as the tip of the spear if Poland conventionally intervenes in the conflict, plus Polish servicemen might masquerade as Ukrainians to bolster its numbers and effectiveness.

Regardless of however another “full-scale” Polish-Russian War might begin, there’s no doubt that it would spike the risk of World War III. Poland is a NATO member to whom the nuclear-armed US has mutual security obligations, and even if their extension to allies’ activities in third countries is legally dubious, it’s unlikely that the US would hang any of its allies out to dry if their uniformed troops get pulverized by Russia in Ukraine. The Western elite would demand that the US respond in some way.

Leaving aside speculation about how such a conflict might end, it’s time to turn towards what Poland’s endgame would be for conventionally intervening in the first place. It was argued here back in spring 2022 that Polish interests wouldn’t be best served by annexing the Western Ukrainian regions that it controlled during the interwar period. Rather, this follow-up here from summer 2023 argues that a “sphere of influence” would be much better, which was already being pursued before their security pact.

Accordingly, upon weighing the costs and benefits, it’s much more likely that Poland would refrain from annexing Western Ukraine and instead remain content with turning it into a client state where Polish companies have privileged access to its natural and labor resources without any of the responsibilities. The ‘Ukrainian Legion’ could then act as Poland’s praetorian guards while some uniformed troops might still be deployed for training and other purposes behind the scenes.

Poland’s plans to nearly triple its border forces from 6,000 to 17,000, 9,000 of whom will form a rapid border reaction force, were also coincidentally announced on the same day as Kukula’s scandalous comment and could facilitate a conventional intervention. Those that might cross into Ukraine wouldn’t leave the Belarusian border vulnerable to illegal immigrant invaders or whatever other threats though since Poland already called on Germany to assume partial responsibility for that front.

As it stands, however, Poland would be taking a huge gamble by conventionally intervening in Ukraine anytime soon. Its planned military buildup isn’t complete and will still require at least a few more years before it’s ready to fight a “full-scale conflict”. There’s also no guarantee that the US would directly attack Russian forces in response to them pulverizing Poles ones in Ukraine. It might instead agree to asymmetrically partition Ukraine as a swift de-escalation compromise to avoid World War III.

That said, a limited intervention that’s concentrated in Western Ukraine and focused on non-combat roles can’t be ruled out, though the reader should know that a top European think tank’s latest survey proved that it would still be very unpopular with Poles. This could take the form of a “no-fly zone” over Lvov, around which its military-industrial and other investments could be based, and the deployment of uniformed troops there for training purposes alongside its ‘Ukrainian Legion’ praetorian guards.

Russia couldn’t ignore that development if it unfolds since doing so could embolden NATO as a whole to rapidly scale this Polish-led intervention to cover everything up to the Dnieper, after which the bloc’s hawks might get frisky and flirt with crossing the river to threaten Russia’s new regions. The resultant game of nuclear chicken that was described here could end in mutual catastrophe if Russia feels that it must employ tactical nukes as a last resort in self-defense to stop an impending invasion.

It's therefore expected that Russia would kinetically respond to the official introduction of Polish troops in Ukraine and/or a limited “no-fly zone” over its western regions, though depending on the scale of Poland’s intervention and Russia’s response, the US might not get directly involved in the fray. To be clear, Poland might not do either of these two and could formally remain outside of the conflict, but Kukula’s comments nevertheless strongly hint that there are conditions under which it’ll take the plunge.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/interpre ... h-military

Belarusian Media Made A Good Point About Why Poland Shouldn’t Close The Border

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUL 11, 2024

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This could worsen Poland’s ties with Western Europe in parallel with cutting it off from this lucrative route upon which Chinese-EU overland trade is dependent.

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski revealed late last month that his country was considering closing its border with Belarus, which its Western-backed and Lithuanian-based “opposition” leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya criticized him for on the basis that it would destroy the West’s soft power. There’s been no news about this since, thus prompting publicly financed Belarusian media BelTA to publish a piece on this subject earlier in the week titled “The play is over? How border games played out for Poland”.

It divided Poland’s ploy into three phases: the buffer zone and consequences; Duda’s Chinese voyage; and the blockade at Malaszewice. The first concerned the liberal-globalist government’s restoration of its conservative-nationalist predecessor’s policy, which hit local border economies very hard, while the second described the futility of the Polish President’s efforts to get China to pressure Belarus on the illegal immigrant issue. It’s the third of these phases where BelTA makes the best point.

According to them, President Xi’s announcement alongside his Kazakh counterpart on 3 July that China will launch freight transportation to Europe along the Trans-Caspian (“Middle Corridor”) route can be interpreted as a stinging rebuke of the Polish leader’s recent efforts to turn him against Belarus. Malszewice is correctly described in the text as “China’s gateway to Europe” and it’s through here where the bulk of China’s overland exports to Europe pass.

Although that dry point remains important, BelTA interpreted China’s abovementioned move as signaling that it has alternatives for maintaining trade with the EU in the event that Poland indefinitely shuts down that crossing, which was coincidentally disrupted for 33 hours on the same day as Xi’s announcement. One of the experts whose assessments they cited in their piece also noted that China could get France and Germany to pressure Poland to lift any potential blockade in order to restore access.

It would therefore be maximally detrimental to Poland to flirt with any more border closures since this could worsen its ties with Western Europe in parallel with cutting Poland off from this lucrative route upon which Chinese-EU overland trade is dependent. Belarus wouldn’t be all that adversely affected, their experts predicted, since non-Western companies are already replacing Poland’s pre-sanctions role in that country’s markets. The only one who’d be dealt a powerful blow would be Poland.

It's perhaps with these observations in mind, which France and/or Germany might have reminded Poland of during the recent Weimar Triangle meeting, that Poland has remained silent on this front. Simply put, its leadership might have realized how counterproductive it would be to close the border with Belarus, which wouldn’t have any significant effect on stopping illegal immigrant invaders. Only more robust border security and cooperation with Belarus can help curb these flows.

The first is already in progress while the second remains an impossibility so long as Poland continues imposing sanctions against Belarus and hosting anti-government militants that still threaten it. This policy isn’t expected to change since Poland considers itself to be NATO’s vanguard against Russia and Belarus. It’s also presenting itself as a semi-autonomous pole of regional influence through its latest powerplay in Ukraine, which it plans to turn into a client state through their new security pact.

Nevertheless, for as regionally disruptive as these policies are, they could be even more counterproductive for the average Pole if Warsaw closed the border with Belarus and thus deprived their economy of its competitive advantage in serving as a middleman for Chinese-EU trade. That policy still remains on the table in theory, but policymakers’ conspicuous silence in recent weeks suggests that they’re reconsidering its wisdom, which might have to do with Poland finally realize what it would lose.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/belarusi ... good-point

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Something Rotten in the State of Albion
Posted on July 11, 2024 by Yves Smith

Yves here. George Georgiou has returned, this time with a look at the UK’s carefully cultivated brand image versus reality. Admittedly, some who are at closer range have a good handle on British character. Recall when one vision of Brexit was “Singapore on Thames”? Many understood that to be “Pirates ahoy!”

By George Georgiou, an economist who for many years worked at the Central Bank of Cyprus in various senior roles, including Head of Governor’s Office during the financial crisis

“Something is rotten in the state of Denmark” – Marcellus
“That one may smile and smile and be a villain” – Hamlet
(Act 1, Hamlet)


Some Very British (and not so British) Scandals

All imperial powers eventually wither away. Some through war, some through economic decline, some as a result of a smorgasbord of internal contradictions, and most through a combination of these. But even long after a state’s primacy has crumbled, the ruling class perpetuates myths designed to maintain a semblance of importance and respect.

By the time of WWII, Britain had already ceased to be the hegemonic imperial power, replaced by America. But the myth of a civilising, fair minded and just country to be admired, and even replicated, by the emerging democracies (often former British colonies) continued to be cultivated by the British establishment. Whether in politics, business or sport, the notion of fairness, of being honourable and of playing by the rules were widely accepted as being part of UK culture. Until recently, when scandals (including corruption in public life), were exposed they were considered an aberration from the norm. The media played an important role in juxtaposing ‘clean’ Britain with other countries where all sorts of nefarious activities were common. Even today, some nationalist inclined commentators still hold up Britain as an example of good governance with relatively little political corruption compared with other countries. However, a cursory look at history confirms what delusional nonsense this was/is. Far from being an aberration, corruption in modern Britain dates back to British capitalism’s very beginnings. Think, for example, of the rotten (or pocket) boroughs in the 18th century.

The myth of a clean, fair and honourable Britannia gained traction in the 19th century. For example, in sport the so-called ‘gentleman’s game’ of cricket was used as an example of ethical behaviour. The metaphor “It’s not cricket”, which dates back to mid-19th century England, was used (and still is sometimes) to admonish unsportsmanlike behaviour, not just in sporting activities but also in politics, business and life in general. The irony is that W.G. Grace, the iconic cricketer whose playing career extended from 1869 to 1908, and is still considered to be one of England’s greatest players, was known for his ‘gamesmanship’(euphemism for cheating) and the fact that, although an amateur, made more money from the game than the professional players. He was considered a loveable rascal, probably in the way that some in the Conservative Party and Tory press considered Boris Johnson before all the pathological lying and infantile buffoonery eventually caught up with him. Which brings us to the modern era of political corruption.

Using the mid-1980s as the starting point of the modern era (partly because it is within living memory of most readers), the number of political scandals has been growing. The fourteen years of Tory Party rule elevated political corruption and ineptitude to new heights. But prior to Tory rule, the Labour Party had its fair share of scandals as well. Furthermore, many of the transgressions in British public life have occurred outside the narrow confines of Westminster and have involved municipal government, the police and the Royal Family. Below is a list of some of the scandals stretching back to the 1980s.

1985 : Al-Yamamah scandal involving BAE and defence contract bribes
1987-89: Homes for votes scandal in Westminster Council
1994 : Cash-for-questions affair involving the Tory MP Neil Hamilton, and others
1997 : Bernie Ecclestone affair involving a large donation to the Labour Party
1998 : Peter Mandelson, Labour Government minister, involving a £373.000 loan
2006 : David Mills, husband of Labour Government minister, involving a £340.000 loan
2006 : Cash-for-honours scandal involving the Prime Minister, Tony Blair
2009 : Cash-for-influence involving the Labour Party
2009 : UK parliamentary expenses scandal involving, mostly, the two main parties
2010 : Scandal involving the expenses claims of Lib Democrat minister, David Laws
2012 : Cash-for-access scandal involving Tory MP, Peter Cruddas
2016-17: Alleged bribery of Prince Charles’ Foundation by wealthy Saudi national
2016-20: Fraudulent investments of several hundred million pounds by Thurrock Council
2019-22: Various unethical expenses involving Boris Johnson and Tory Party donors
2020-22: Covid related PPE contracts awarded to politically connected companies
2021 : Greensill lobbying scandal involving former Prime Minister, David Cameron
2021 : Paid advocacy scandal involving the Tory MP, Owen Patterson
2013-23: Royal Duchy of Lancaster bona vacantia scandal
2023 : Securing of immunity from prosecution in Wales for Buckingham Palace
2016-24: £8.4 billion in contracts given to companies linked to Tory Party donors
2020-24: Conflict of interest involving Sunak and his father-in-law’s company, Infosys
2024 : The election betting scandal.

This list is merely indicative. A full list would require a couple of pages, at least.

The Sewers Stink

From the above list, there are three cases worth considering in more detail since they give a flavour of the broad spectrum of corruption that is prevalent in Britain.

THE PPE SCANDAL

During the Covid pandemic, the British government purchased billions of pounds worth of personal protection equipment (PPE). It transpired that a significant amount of this equipment was faulty or inappropriate for the needs of hospitals. Furthermore, much of it was purchased at inflated prices and from companies which had connections to the Conservative Party and/or had no previous experience in sourcing PPE products.

In April 2021, Transparency International published a report, Track and Trace, which reviewed nearly 1.000 Covid related contracts worth £18 billion. The report identified:

….73 contracts worth more than £3.7 billion, equivalent to 20 percent of COVID-19 contracts between February and November 2020, that raise one or more red flags for possible corruption….Our analysis of the available evidence is consistent with there being systemic bias towards those with connections to the party of government in Westminster….

The key findings were, quote:

• “Contracts awarded to companies with political connections: Twenty-four PPE contracts worth £1.6 billion were awarded to those with known political connections to Conservative Party. Three contracts worth £536 million went to politically connected companies for testing related services”. (my italics)
• “Contracts awarded without competition: Between February and November 2020, 98.9 percent of COVID-19 related contracts by value (£17.8 billion) were awarded without any form of competition, many without adequate justification” (my italics)
• “Contracts awarded to companies with no track record of supplying goods or services: Fourteen companies incorporated in 2020 received contracts worth more than £620 million, of which 13 contracts totalling £255 million went to 10 firms that were less than 60 days old”. (my italics)

Following the findings of parliament’s Public Accounts Committee, that £4 billion of unusable PPE was purchased in the first year of the pandemic, the Chair of the Committee, Meg Hillier, stated the following in June 2022:

The story of PPE purchasing is perhaps the most shameful episode in the UK government response to the pandemic…..the government splurged huge amounts of money, paying obscenely inflated prices and payments to middlemen in a chaotic rush during which they chucked out even the most cursory due diligence. This has left us with massive public contracts now under investigation by the National Crime Agency or in dispute because of allegations of modern slavery in the supply chain. (my italics)

A later report by the National Audit Office covering the period 2020-2022, and published in January 2023, found that a total of £15 billion had been wasted on unusable, overpriced and undelivered PPE.

THE ROYAL DUCHY OF LANCASTER SCANDAL

In 2023, The Guardian revealed that the Duchy of Lancaster, which belongs to the reigning monarch, had benefited from the financial assets of people who died intestate. Under an antiquated system, whose origins date back to feudal times, when a deceased person living in the Duchy is intestate their financial assets are collected by the Duchy and, after deducting for costs, the revenues are supposedly distributed to charities. However, the Guardian journalists examined the accounts of the Duchy and found that only 15% of these funds, known as bona vacantia, ended up with charities. Instead, the remaining 75% were used by the Duchy to repair buildings on its estate. The buildings included farmhouses, cottages, holiday homes, etc, all used by the Duchy for, essentially, commercial purposes.

The Duchy covers a large area comprising 44.748 acres of land in rural parts of Lancashire, Greater Manchester, Cheshire, Cumbria and other parts of North West England. The Duchy also owns a significant portfolio of properties in the Savoy area (off the Strand in London) as well as a portfolio of financial investments. The Guardian also revealed that over the 10-year period, 2013-2023, the Duchy received about £60 million in bona vacantia. And since inheriting the Duchy from the Queen, King Charles had, at the time of The Guardian article, already received £26 million in revenues from the Duchy, although it is not clear whether this includes the bona vacantia. Note that neither the Duchy of Lancaster nor the Duchy of Cornwall (owned by Prince William) pay capital gains tax or corporation tax.

THE ELECTION BETTING SCANDAL

On 22 May, Rishi Sunak stood in the rain outside 10 Downing Street, looking like a cross between a vexed 6th form school prefect and Norman Wisdom, and announced that there would be a general election on 4 July. No one expected the announcement since it was generally believed that the election would be held in the autumn. The announcement annoyed many in Sunak’s party and generated a lot of discussion in the MSM. But the surprise of the announcement was surpassed by what was subsequently revealed in the media.

On 12 June, The Guardian carried a report that the Gambling Commission was investigating Craig Williams, a Tory MP and Sunak’s parliamentary private secretary, for possible infringement of the 2005 Gambling Act. Williams had placed a £100 bet with Ladbrokes on 19 May, three days before Sunak’s announcement, that an election would take place in July. Under section 42 of the Gambling Act, it is illegal to benefit from a bet using insider information. Initially, the MSM played down the report but as the days passed, more revelations began appearing in the media involving Conservative Party staff, Tory and Labour politicians as well as policemen.

At the time of writing, the following had been or were being investigated by the Gambling Commission:

• Craig Williams, MP—Sunak’s former parliamentary private secretary. Tory Party withdrew support.
• Tony Lee—Tory Party’s Director of Campaigning. Took leave of absence.
• Laura Saunders (Lee’s wife)—Tory Party candidate. Tory Party withdrew support.
• Nick Mason—Tory Party’s Chief Data Officer. Took leave of absence.
• Russell George, Tory member of the Welsh parliament.
• Kevin Craig, Labour Party candidate, lobbyist and donor. Bet on himself losing.
• Unnamed Metropolitan police protection officer and part of Sunak’s security team. Arrested and under investigation.
• Five unnamed police officers.

Apart from the above individuals, Alister Jack, the then Secretary of State for Scotland, admitted he had placed a bet on the timing of the election but has not been investigated. One newspaper alleged that Sir Philip Davies, Conservative Party candidate for Shipley, placed a bet of £8.000 that he would lose. He refused to confirm or deny the allegation.

Closing Remarks

The three examples above are no worse than many of the myriad other cases we could have focused on. Indeed, there are other more sordid examples. They are simply a representative sample of recent cases [1].

Much has been written about Britain’s decay; specifically, the economic decline, the rise in inequality, the crisis in the National Health Service, the crumbling infrastructure, etc. Although political corruption often gets mentioned, there is still an image of Britain as relatively clean. For example, in Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, the UK was ranked joint 20th with Austria, France and the Seychelles[2]. This perception doesn’t reflect the extent of Albion’s rot.

Notes:

[1] For details on some of the other cases, not all recent, see the following:

Al-Yamaha arms deal

https://corruption-tracker.org/case/al- ... arms-deals

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... al-report- discovery-anti-corruption-mod-nao-britain-saudi-arabia

Homes for votes scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homes_for_votes_scandal

Blair’s cash-for-honours scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash-for-Honours_scandal

Parliamentary expenses scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ki ... es_scandal

Thurrock Council investment scandal

https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/s ... ous-deals/

Sunak’s conflict of interests

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/03 ... gnore.html

[2] For a critical assessment of the Corruption Perceptions Index see:

https://cypruseconomicsociety.org/trans ... -be-fixed/

https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... ng-2024-03

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... lbion.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Fri Jul 12, 2024 3:01 pm

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Rowan, Place de la Republique

French elections : Antifascist victory and deep political crisis
By John Mullen (Posted Jul 11, 2024)

Originally published: The Left Berlin on July 9, 2024 (more by The Left Berlin) |

Many thousands of antifascists celebrated all night in rallies around the country on Sunday evening, as the news came through of the second round election results in France.

It had been widely feared that the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, would be forming a government this week. Instead they were beaten back into third place, with 143 MPs (including their close allies). The left electoral alliance, named the New Popular Front, came first with 182 MPs (and they can count on the 13 “other Lefts” to vote with them). Macron’s group got 168. A parliamentary majority is 289.

Millions of people are feeling tremendous relief. It is not only the results which are important, but how they were won—through the most dynamic left campaign in many decades, involving tens of thousands of new activists, large sections of civil society, widespread door to door work, hundreds of rallies and marches, and a dizzying variety of events, initiatives and appeals to vote for radical change and against fascism. The whole country has heard the arguments about how it is possible to tax the rich, rebuild our hospitals and schools, and fight against sexist violence and against racism, antisemitism and islamophobia.

And the radical section of the NPF—the France Insoumise (France in Revolt)—obtained very high scores in multiethnic working class areas, resulting in the election of many fine MPs: class fighters who are light years away from some of the grey apparatchiks we are used to. These include Raphaël Arnault, co-founder of The Young Guard, a dynamic antifascist organization that was set up a few years ago. There is also Sebastien Delogu, a taxi driver who led the campaign against the uberisation of the profession as well as Aly Diouara, originally from The Gambia, who is very active as a town councillor in the working class suburbs of Paris and a local leader of the campaign against the genocide in Gaza. Alma Dufour is also worth mentioning, who is known as a leader of direct action campaigns against Amazon.

Deep crisis
But with this election, France has been plunged into a deep political crisis which will last for some time. The situation contains many dangers, but also many opportunities. Every political configuration is fragile and every tactic and strategy contested. There will be swings and turns and turncoats (motivated by panic or worse) and some will act better politically than we thought they would. We must concentrate on the key elements, not on details of tactics, in order to understand what is new and what is possible.

The electoral alliance, the New Popular Front, encouraged by huge pressure from below, has brilliantly succeeded in stopping a fascist government. This was done through unity and through the inspiration provided by a radical programme. This result justifies the alliance, and the compromises it required, however fragile the NPF may be in the future.

The Rassemblement national activists are demoralized and depressed this week, as they gained only half the MPs they were hoping for. But they still have fifty five more than at the last parliamentary elections. The present relative setback for the far right must be used as a jumping off point to push the fascists back. The hundreds of thousands involved these last three weeks must remain mobilized.

What happens now?
No grouping has a majority in parliament, and the Constitution forbids new parliamentary elections for 12 months. There appear to be three possibilities: a minority left government, a right-left coalition or a government of appointed experts.

Left leaders have declared their desire to form a minority government. This might have difficulty passing laws, but some NPF policies, such as reining in police violence, increasing the minimum wage, and price freezes on basic necessities do not require new legislation. Of course, the pressure from bosses and the media will be unprecedented and the mobilization of workers to ensure our interests are defended is essential. Many NPF supporters understand that a left government must not be given carte blanche. There are, this week, attempts to establish networks of local Popular Front committees to maintain radical engagement of large numbers of people.

Most of the right, aided by a strong media campaign, would prefer a coalition “national union” government, including parts of left and right: including everyone, indeed, except for the France Insoumise and the Rassemblement national. Fear of chaos and disorganization is being used to try to persuade people that this is a reasonable project.

Several leading Macronists are pushing for this idea, and some leaders from the Socialist Party, Communist Party and Greens are saying it should be considered. They may be joined by a small number of France Insoumise MPs led by François Ruffin who are breaking away from the FI, looking for a more “moderate” less left wing option. “We need to calm things down” said Ruffin. This group are pretending that the problem is Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s personality and are joining in the vast smear campaigns against him.

A left-right coalition government would be a disaster for working people. Abandoning the radical measures which people need to reduce misery and improve our schools, hospitals and working conditions, such a government would bring rapid and deep disappointment, and practically guarantee a far-right government in a few years’ time. The France Insoumise has refused this option, and all honest sections of the Left must do so, too. For the moment, Olivier Faure, leader of the Socialist Party, has ruled out such a coalition. Marine Tondelier, head of the Greens, is less clear.

Other commentators are speaking of the nomination of a government of bourgeois “experts” (in Italy at one point they appointed the director of the national bank). This will be presented as a common-sense decision, justified since “foolish politicians” cannot reach a consensus, and because not having a government is “unimaginable”. But how can we imagine that such a government would be on the side of working people?

The crisis is only just beginning. We need to remain mobilized and create structures of vigilance to involve as many as possible of those very large numbers of activists who campaigned for the New Popular Front. These structures must aim at pushing the far right back through mass education, and through mass harassment of all RN events and initiatives.

Do some people have illusions as to what a NPF government can quickly change? Of course they do, this is inevitable. But the way forward is to mobilize against neoliberalism and support a Left government, if one is formed, every time it introduces reforms in our interests, but oppose it immediately if it gives in to the pressure of the dictatorship of profit.

https://mronline.org/2024/07/11/french-elections/

*******

Italy’s Antisemitism Scandal Should Have Raised Alarms in US
ARI PAUL

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Reuters (6/27/24) noted that Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party “traces its roots to the Italian Social Movement (MSI), formed in 1946 as a direct heir of Benito Mussolini’s fascist movement that ruled Italy for more than 20 years.”
An antisemitism scandal has rocked one of Europe’s major far-right political leaders: Giorgia Meloni, prime minister of Italy. It’s been major news in the European press. But the story is being mishandled by major US corporate media, and that fact says a lot about how poorly antisemitism is covered in the United States.

Reuters (6/27/24) reported:

A reporter from online newspaper Fanpage [6/14/24] infiltrated Gioventu Nazionale, Meloni’s rightist Brothers of Italy youth movement, and recorded videos in which members declared themselves fascists and shouted the Nazi slogan “Sieg Heil.”… The investigation also showed a Gioventu Nazionale member mocking Brothers of Italy senator Ester Mieli for her Jewish origin, and revealed chats on messaging platforms where militants took aim at ethnic minorities.

Meloni’s political opponents used this footage against her (Guardian, 6/27/24). She eventually condemned the antisemites (Euronews, 6/29/24). Haaretz (6/30/24) said:

This 12-minute video showed National Youth activists, including two senior figures, singing a celebratory song in honor of the disgraced dictator Benito Mussolini, chanting “Sieg Heil!” and glorifying the Nuclei Armati Rivoluzionari (Armed Revolutionary Nuclei)—a neofascist terrorist group that was active in Italy in the late 1970s and early ’80s, committing over 100 murders.

Neofascist roots
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Fanpage (6/14/24) led off its report on Italy’s National Youth by noting that Meloni refers to them as “marvelous young people,” and they are defined as “the soul and the driving force” of her party.


This shouldn’t be a big surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to Italian politics. The nation’s small but vibrant Jewish population has been skeptical of Meloni’s ascendence and that of her party, Brothers of Italy. The Jewish Telegraphic Agency (9/30/22) explained two years ago:

Meloni’s first stop in politics was in the youth movement of the Italian Social Movement, known as MSI, a neofascist party founded in 1946 by people who had worked with Hitler and Benito Mussolini, Italy’s fascist leader from 1922 to 1943. Brothers of Italy is closely tied to the group, even housing its office in the same building where MSI operated and using an identical logo, a tricolor flame.

With Meloni at the helm of one of Europe’s biggest economies, she is not a minor player; in fact, at the last G7 conference, she stood out as a confident leader (AP, 10/18/23; Wall Street Journal, 6/13/24) over a flock of feeble, vulnerable centrists and conservatives.

One of those was Rishi Sunak, who has since lost his job as British prime minister and Conservative Party leader (Guardian, 7/5/24). Another is President Joe Biden, who is being pressured to drop out of the US presidential race due to concerns regarding his cognitive health (New York Times, 6/28/24). And French President Emmanuel Macron has been weakened by the poor performance of his party in snap parliamentary elections (Reuters, 7/7/24).

The summit took place after Meloni’s party increased its share of the popular vote in the European Union election, and she is now “poised to play a critical role shaping the future direction of EU policy in Brussels” (Politico, 6/13/24).

Late to the story—or absent
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The New York Times (7/2/24) led with Meloni “urg[ing] leaders of her political party on Tuesday to reject antisemitism, racism and nostalgia for totalitarian regimes.”
The New York Times (6/11/24) has positively portrayed Meloni as a “critical player” as the host of the G7 conference, and has been upbeat about her rising stature generally. (Her anti-Russian politicking “sealed her credibility as someone who could play an influential role in the top tier of European leaders”—2/7/24.) The Times (7/2/24) came late to the Brother of Italy story , leading with the news of her public relations drive to denounce the racist content. The Washington Post, which also had previously normalized her as a European politician (6/6/24), covered the story in a similar fashion with AP copy (7/3/24).
NPR missed the story. So did CNN. The Wall Street Journal, whose editorial board had said she was “governing with some success” (6/13/24), and whose news coverage has portrayed her as a pragmatist (6/13/24), wasn’t interested in the scandal either.

This lackluster coverage, which at best focused on Meloni’s self-interested damage control rather than the dark ideology at the center of her movement, is confounding. Western media have been rightfully fretting about the far right’s impressive showing in recent EU parliamentary elections (New York Times, 6/9/24). Meloni’s reputation as a strong leader among ailing centrist European leaders is bolstered by other far-right parties making impressive gains.

All of these parties, known for their anti-immigration and anti-multicultural positions, also have tinges of right-wing antisemitism, including Britain’s Reform Party (Haaretz, 6/23/24), Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland (Deutsche Welle, 8/5/23) and France’s National Rally (AP, 7/3/24). In the US, Donald Trump has been careful not to criticize the overt antisemites in the MAGA movement, including the “very fine people” who chanted “Jews will not replace us” at Charlottesville (Politico, 12/7/22). The Washington Post (10/17/22) noted that Trump has long employed antisemitic tropes in his rhetoric.

A danger signal ignored
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And so the Fanpage revelations should have been a blaring danger signal, as they were for the European press. The New York Times has been raising alarms (10/31/23, 12/16/23) about a rise of antisemitism since the October 7 attacks in Israel, painting the problem as one that plagues the left and the right. But as FAIR (12/12/23, 12/15/23) has talked about, corporate media are quick to cast legitimate criticism of Israel as antisemitism to discredit pro-Palestine points of view, wrongfully equating opposition to genocide with the racist antisemitism of the right.

Regardless of the reason for US corporate media’s oversight, the impact is clear. The press can talk about antisemitism more openly when they can attach it to human rights protesters, but are less eager to describe antisemitism as it actually is: a bigotry that is interwoven with the anti-Islamic and xenophobic platforms of the powerful far right.

https://fair.org/home/italys-antisemiti ... rms-in-us/

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Squaring circles for peace and war: Berlin Bulletin No. 224, July 11, 2024
By Victor Grossman (Posted Jul 11, 2024)

So much has been happening in recent weeks! Not so much in the USA, where everyone is waiting for that shoe to drop, the old one with the worn, troubled sole—or missing soul! (The other shoe never claimed to have a soul)

But in Europe! On July 7th came a huge surprise which few pundits had even dared predict. No, it wasn’t the LePen/Bardella crowd they had fearfully awaited, and certainly not the Macron sad sacks! It was La Gauche—the Left—which showed what can be won if you put up a fight—this time with joined hands and clever tactics! And against racism and nationalism!

In the European Parliament elections on June 9th a few leftist parties had pointed the way, with small but welcome gains in Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece. But the general trend was to the right. Even in Britain, no longer in the EU, while the incredibly corrupt Tories were finally swept out, the victorious Labour Party replacing them was hardly less adept in the art of selling out to the highest bidders. But here and there the London fog was dispersed by new, courageous voices—most gloriously by good old Jeremy Corbyn as an Independent, now hopefully with the spunk to fight back; those hopeful voices will still be facing a tough time against the fog, with the phonies still shouting their pro-Netanyahu misuse of “anti-Semitism” charges—much like those in the USA and Germany.

The French leftists have also been facing that tactic, of course, with charges of anti-Semitism, at times genuine but mostly exaggerated, invented and stressed so as to split the left and weaken the fight against militarism, internationalism—and for socialism. In France La Gauche is much stronger but, lacking a majority, will also face a foggy Brumaire. On many key issues I expect the Macron crowd will prefer cuddling up to LePen & Co.—a well-established tradition. And the left is a very mixed bunch, of course. Nothing is certain! But nothing can diminish my happiness at seeing the billionaire bunch not just taking in giant profits but also a rare, hard blow to the solar plexus! Vive la Gauche!

In Germany, the fighting ring looks different; it rather recalls Ringling Brothers, the famous circus a German family founded 140 years ago, now newly revived. The three-ring, three party coalition in Berlin finally fought out a rickety budget, just in time for the summer vacation, but the fragile tent will hardly survive the windy gusts of autumn. Every cabinet minister insists on more money in what is already a sadly sagging economy. Yes, it’s still the wealthiest in Europe, featuring lucky trapeze artists flying high up there, like Armin Papperger of Rheinmetall (Panther tanks), with an annual wage envelope of €3.6m, or Oliver Blume of VW with a fat €9.7 m. But those down below, setting up props, clearing messy sawdust or other hard jobs now face the lowest growth rates on the continent, with many groceries out of reach, soaring rents, evictions increasing, poor kids disadvantaged, doctors and teachers far too few and more pensioners dependent on free food pantries.

Some problems are remnants of the Covid misery, but a main reason for the bleak picture is the big fuel cost increase, with the Russian pipeline shut down (and, not so mysteriously, blown up), forcing reliance on liquefied fracking gas shipped expensively from the U.S. Gulf Coast, the Arab Gulf states, or Russian oil repurchased from India. Another major cause: the huge sums spent for a military build-up, for fearsome measures looking increasingly like preparations for war, with the chosen adversary constantly accused of aggressive aims—while more and more German weapons and troops are stationed closer and closer to Russian heartland targets and seaways.

Wherever one looks In the coalition cabinet the ministers of the three parties are constantly at odds, one against the other, somehow recalling that worldwide game “Hammer-Scissors-Paper.” The smallest of the three, the Free Democrats (FDP), relentlessly pro-business, insists that there be no tax increases for the wealthy (disguised under the heading “productive middle class”). Such generosity to the high flyers, already astonishingly undertaxed, requires tough stinginess, with at best the most modest improvements, for single parents, children, the elderly and the jobless. But the FDP, balancing along the 5% line needed to remain in the Bundestag, is constantly blackmailing its two partners. If it should quit then the government would collapse, a special election would be required, and since all three parties stand so low in the polls, having ended miserably in the EU elections, they would immediately face political disaster.

The Greens, heading to the top of the party pile less than three years ago, look very sad today, and are probably most disliked. While failing attempts to preserve their mainstay, ecological chastity, they have often crept under warm covers with Christian rightists, accepting compromises on the environment but striving for vanguard position in bellicose demands to hit out against Russia, now in Ukraine—also economically. “Ruin Russia!” was the call of Green Foreign Minister Annelina Baerbock. It often seems that the Greens have the closest bonds and kowtow most deeply to U.S. capital interests (and German ones as well), and are torn between their martial foreign policy and a worsening reputation with home-owners fearing higher costs to isolate and warm their homes and with farmers angered by regulations against herbicides and stricter protection for animals—forced on them, as many see it, by a bunch of rich bio-vegans!

Even the Social Democrats (SPD), the trio leaders, are polling at about 15%, only half that of their traditional (but also diminished) Christian (CDU-CSU) rivals. Frightened by losses among working people, the SPD must display social consciousness, at least verbally. But although its chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has called for a €15 hourly minimum wage, he also insisted on an extra hundred billion euros for militarization, then even more, all at the cost of working people. And while still dragging his feet about sending Zelenskyy the Taurus missiles, capable of wrecking both Moscow’s subway system and all its military bunkers, he is okaying every other kind of military hardware for Kyiv, as well as continuing support for a genocidal Netanyahu & Co. in Gaza. While a few Social Democrats—very few—have dared to call for negotiations and peace in both wars, the loudest bellicose crusader in Germany is Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who calls himself a Social Democrat. He is now in Alaska, helping to establish another German outpost in a far distant area, but not too far to angrily denounce a small cut in the immense German military budget. It’s all needed, of course for “defense.” Not long ago he was busy setting up a permanent German outpost in Lithuania. And it is Pistorius who has called for a rebirth of military conscription, which had been basically shut down in 2011. When this trial balloon was punctured for sailing too far and too fast he sent up a smaller balloon; no drafting but a questionnaire for draft age Germans, compulsory for males, voluntary for females, setting them up for drafting “when necessary.” That balloon is still afloat. To make things clear, he demanded “Kriegstüchtigkeit” (war fitness), elating those hoping for conflict but frightening most of the others. Here are his words:

Once again we must get used to the idea that there could be a danger of war in Europe. And that means: We must become fit for war, we must be able to defend ourselves and position the Bundeswehr and society for it.

These words of Pistorius revolve around Ukraine, where they really mean a demand to “fight to the finish” by NATO, led by the USA (or, if need be with Trump, by Germany) and thus inching ever closer to the nuclear precipice. Denmark, Holland, Norway and Belgium plan to send F-16 fighter jets; Denmark and Holland said there would be no restrictions on Kyiv striking targets in Russia. F-16s can carry nuclear weapons, and Russia has said the planes will be considered a nuclear threat. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg states that 500,000 troops are at “high readiness,” and in the next five years NATO will “acquire thousands of air defense and artillery systems, 850 modern aircraft, mostly fifth-generation F-35s,and many other high-end capabilities.”

NATO is now celebrating 75 years of opposing the USSR and Russia; Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas will probably succeed Stoltenberg as secretary general; she is equally bellicose, if not more so, and the Scholz government enthusiastically joins the celebrations while welcoming U.S. long-range missile launchers in Germany. The hooded figure with the scythe can well rub his bony fingers.

Who opposes these deadly dangers? First of all, a fair section of the German population, most notably in its eastern states, where older generations were immersed at every occasion in an official GDR stress on “Peace” and where many visited the USSR as students, workers, allied soldiers or tourists and found that Russians, despite their funny alphabet, were human beings with neither spiked tails nor horns.

Surprisingly perhaps, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) opposes military support for Ukraine. This is hardly the result of any pacifist feelings among its leaders, who praise NATO, praise a German armaments buildup, support a military draft and praise Israel’s war against Gaza even more vigorously than the government parties which teeter between very faint “concern” for civilians and continuing full support for Netanyahu. But for Ukraine the AfD calls for peace—and tends to support Putin. One can speculate about the reasons, but this position may well have helped gain amazing popularity in the Eastern states; it is now in first place in Thuringia (29%), in Brandenburg (25%) and Saxony (30%) and all three face important state elections in September.

More important for AfD strength is no doubt a widespread dissatisfaction with the economy. Although Germany is still near the top in exports and average living standards, many face great uncertainty with the general decline, making the future look bleaker for offspring generations. This is strongest among East Germans, who often feel cheated and condemned to second class status despite all the promises of 1990. The AfD, nationally in second place, lays the blame above all on “all those refugees and immigrants, mostly illegally here to get handouts, pushing down wage scales and far too often criminals and rapists”—an almost literal translation of voices in the USA. It is widespread racist prejudice, and worries about failure and war, which have given the AfD its big lead.

But what about the LINKE (Left), always proud to call itself the “Party of Peace”? It was often alone in opposing military involvement in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Mali, the waters off Lebanon and Somalia, and now even in Pacific regions. It opposed armament programs and the entire return to modernized Prussian-type militarism in all its spheres.

But then came Ukraine. And then came Gaza! And the Left split again, as elsewhere, as so often. Some, without refraining from condemnation of the Russian march into Ukraine, blamed NATO’s relentless steamroller expansion eastward for genuine angst in Moscow and condemned Washington’s very explicit goal of world hegemony, which it called a “rules-based international order”—despite its defiance of so many rules, from depleted uranium and white phosphorus bombing to its horrendous regime changes in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia—and so many others.

But others, in LINKE leadership, chose to appease NATO, to accept increasing weapons shipments to Kyiv (and even to Netanyahu) and to reject dramatic appeals and rallies demanding negotiations and peace, largely using the pathetically weak alibi that AfD and other rightists were not being sufficiently barred from such rallies. It was such positions and decisions, which indicated the desire of some LINKE leaders to gain acceptance through compromises, and maybe win a ministerial armchair or two in a national cabinet, which caused the breakaway of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), headed by the popular, attractive, master debater who gave it her name. Within less than seven months and only rudimentary organization it has risen to 7% (sometimes 9%) in the national polls and to third place in eastern Germany, mostly at the cost of the LINKE, which (except for a few urban strongholds), is fighting for survival, now with only 2-3% nationally and with quickly diminishing poll percentage in the East. (In Thuringia BSW 20, LINKE 14, Saxony BSW 15, LINKE 3, Brandeburg BSW 8, LINKE 2)

With the LINKE already slipping badly, many clearly hoped—and hope—that a fighting new party might revive a genuine opposition in Germany. And Sahra’s party, like Sahra herself, took a strong position against the mass murder and devastation in Gaza and, while joining in condemning the Russian attack, supporting “not weapons shipments but demands for a cease-fire, negotiations and peace in Ukraine” and moves to a lasting détente between the EU and Russia, and China too.

But some on the left now have questions about this surprisingly strong new party. Sahra moves close to the AfD on immigration questions, supporting stricter controls, accepting only “genuine asylum-seekers” not economic immigrants, the quick ejection of miscreants—slogans especially popular in the East but disturbingly close to slogans of the AfD (and increasingly in all other parties, except the LINKE). Nor has Sahra defined any militant economic demands for working people, other than “fair wages,” while urging more or less a return to the prospering West German “normalcy” of the 1950s and 1960s! Her goals and motivation are unclear; so is the question of how much influence some very good people will have, like Sevim Dagdelen, who actively joined the fight to free Assange and made a moving speech on peace lst week in New York.

There are some leftists, basically Marxists, who opposed the split from the LINKE and still hope, at its party congress in October, to save the original, hopeful party from its fatal opportunism, corruption—and its looming oblivion

So much is up in the air; above all, who will head the governments in Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony after September. Only three parties are showing strength, the AfD, the Christians, and the Wagenknecht BSW. But none are close to the needed majority and, as it now stands, not one is willing to join with either of the other two. A situation not unlike France since July 7th!

In conclusion unusual news again, perhaps most important of all, involving sparks of genuine hope. Hungary has now taken up its six month turn as head of the European union and the first move of Viktor Orbán, hitherto the autocratic pariah of the outfit, was to visit Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing in the cause of peace in Ukraine, perhaps on a basis resembling plans worked out early in the war in Minsk, then Ankara, but skuttled under pressure from Britain’s Boris Johnson and Washington. One can hate or admire any of the gentlemen now involved; I would endorse Satan himself if he could help end this God-awful war and move towards the urgently-needed peace in the area—and elsewhere. Perhaps, with the help of Orbán and maybe a new leadership in France, this may finally become possible. If you are pious it’s worth praying for. If you are human, it’s worth fighting for! In Berlin, Washington, Paris, also in Budapest, Moscow and everywhere else!

https://mronline.org/2024/07/11/squarin ... y-11-2024/

Unexpected result of French election bars a neofascist victory, constituting a moral as well as a political victory for the Left
By Kevin B. Anderson (Posted Jul 12, 2024)

Originally published: The International Marxist-Humanist on July 8, 2024 (more by The International Marxist-Humanist)

Summary: The July 2024 parliamentary elections were a political and moral victory for the left, and not just in France—Editors

As French parliamentary elections pushed the leftist New Popular Front into first place, a pleasant sort of shock greeted revolutionary and progressive-minded people in France and around the world who had feared the triumph of the neofascist National Rally party. To be sure, recent elections in India and Turkey have seen the authoritarian right lose some support, while in Poland, Spain, and the UK, moderates defeated conservatives and reactionaries. But this was different.

Not only had one of the world’s oldest democratic republics been faced with the potential of a neofascist government for the first time since the Vichy Regime during the Nazi Occupation. But equally surprising was the fact that the dam that stopped the right was forged more from the left than from the supposed “center.” After the National Rally placed first in the June 9 European Parliament elections, rightward-moving “centrist” President Emmanuel Macron called snap parliamentary elections for June 30/July 7. He implied, with the arrogance that has won him the sobriquet “Jupiter,” that he wanted to give the French people an opportunity to “correct” their erroneous vote of June 9, presumably by voting in greater numbers for his Together bloc. Some thought he really wanted the neofascists to gain power so they could discredit themselves, in a centrist version of the old Stalinist strategy of the worse the better, repackaged today sometimes as “accelerationism.” (In the French political system, the president serves for six years but the prime minister is elected by the National Assembly and can be from a rival political bloc.)

Macron and almost all other factions of the dominant classes wrote off the left, which had seen its promising 2022 coalition, the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES), founder over Palestine after October 7, 2023. NUPES had united the leftwing France Unbowed, by far its largest component in terms of electoral support, with the shrinking and rather moderate Socialist and Communist parties, and Europe Ecology-the Greens. But to the surprise of many, in June 2024 they did not double down on their divisions. These had been stoked in recent months by center-left media like Le Monde, which demonized France Unbowed’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon as an antisemite, an authoritarian, and an irresponsible critic of the police. Instead, under pressure from their rank-file members and other social forces, the four main leftist parties reunified themselves into another electoral bloc, the New Popular Front, within a matter of days after Macron’s reckless call for a snap election. The New Popular Front’s June 2024 program featured stronger support for Palestine than the Socialists had been espousing, but also more robust support for Ukraine than France Unbowed had expressed up to then. It united more easily around a strong pro-environment platform and on repudiation of Macron’s unpopular increase of the retirement age from 62 to 64, which had touched off mass strikes in 2023 and that he rammed through under France’s semi-authoritarian Gaullist constitution without even a vote in the National Assembly. The New Popular Front also took strong stances in support of immigrant rights, in contrast to Macron’s viciously anti-immigrant policies, which were increasingly echoing those of the neo-fascists. There was little mention of women’s rights, however, as feminists noted, and none of police racism and brutality of the kind that sparked the June 2023 uprising of marginalized youth.

Over the past several years, the National Rally has continued to sanitize its image under the leadership of Marine Le Pen, who rejected her father’s open expressions of fascist sympathies and antisemitism, even joining the large “antisemitism” march last year that was aimed equally or more so at supporters of Palestine. The National Rally put forth the telegenic 28-year-old Jordan Bardella as its prime minister-designate. In addition to their threats to deport immigrants en masse, Bardella and his coterie stated openly that they planned to deny “important” state positions to dual citizens. It was widely pointed out that this was also the first decree of the Vichy Regime, soon followed by measures against the Left and the Jewish community. As to their at least verbal opposition to Macron’s austerity and his raising of the retirement age, this seemed to fade as they courted big capital. National Rally’s attacks on the environmental movement also increased, as seen in their slogans targeting an allegedly “punitive ecology.”

In the first round of the parliamentary elections on June 30, the National Rally placed first (34% of the vote), with the New Popular Front second (28%), and Macron’s party a humiliating third (21%). With the prospect of a neofascist victory now at hand, not in the relatively powerless European Parliament, but at the helm of the French state, with the prime minister almost coequal in power to the president, public opinion and various progressive organizations and spokespersons sprang into action. Leftist parties, mainstream media like Le Monde, intellectuals, trade unions, and other associations demanded that in three or four-way races where the National Rally was a contender, candidates who supported the democratic republic (1) pull out (désiste) in favor of another supporter of democracy who had scored higher in the first round, and (2) call upon their supporters to back the other democratic candidate against the neofascists. From day one, the New Popular Front adhered to this policy almost everywhere, which included backing distasteful figures like Gérald Darmanin, Macron’s minister of the interior, who had orchestrated repression against workers, students, and ecologists. (He won against the National Rally.)

Macron’s centrists and a few rightwing socialist leaders hemmed and hawed, with some saying they would have to oppose “both extremes,” and, in particular, that they could not support a France Unbowed candidate even against the National Rally. They complained that France Unbowed had strongly attacked Israel, had condemned police brutality and Islamophobia, and attacked capitalism as well. Since France Unbowed is the largest party of the left nowadays, that was very problematic indeed. But such views were largely refuted, with people like Jacques Toubon, a veteran conservative who served in several important ministerial positions in the 1990s, telling reporters, “We need to erect a global republican front, including with France Unbowed.” Toubon praised Mélenchon’s party in particular for its democratic discipline, in contrast to the dilatory stance of the people around Macron (“’Il faut ériger un front republican global, y compris avec LFI,” Jacques Toubon interview with Thébaud Metais and Laurent Telo, Le Monde, July 3, 2024). This kind of pressure pulled the centrists into line, though not as completely as the left. In this sense, the parliamentary victory of July 7 for the New Popular Front was not only a political but also type moral victory for the left. Once again, the socialist and working-class left has shown itself the strongest defender of democracy.

The specific results were as follows, in a National Assembly of 577 members that require 289 votes for a majority: New Popular Front (182), Macron’s Together (168), National Rally (143), with the mainstream conservative party The Republicans at 45 seats and other leftists now holding 13. Within the New Popular Front itself, France Unbowed won the largest number of seats (74), followed by the Socialist Party (59), the Ecologists (28) and the Communist Party (9).

On the evening of July 7, as election results were announced, somber and youthful crowds that had gathered to launch the fight against the neofascists were they to come to power, or at least obtain first place, exploded into joyful celebration. In the Place de la République in Paris, a giant French flag went up, with the slogan “immigrants are the fabric of society” written across the white part of it, while pro-Palestine and anti-genocide banners waved underneath and to the side. A young delivery worker exulted about the repudiation of racism he saw in the vote: He told a reporter that contra the dominant narrative, the election proved that “the majority of the French people want us, the Arabs, to stay in France!” (Christoph Ayad et al., “La joie et l’amertume, les deux France du 7 juillet,” Le Monde, July 9, 2024). In Marseille, another delivery worker celebrating the victory recounted that, as the National Rally seemed to be surging during the week between the first and second rounds of the election, so were open expressions of racism: “A customer said to me that he was voting for the National Rally so that people like me would leave [the country]” (Benoit Floc’h et al., “Forte mobilization: ‘people are very concerned’,” Le Monde, July 9, 2024). Elsewhere, Black and Arab workers reported being called the n-word in public places for the first time in years during the electoral campaigns or being told they would have to leave France once the neofascists won. LGBTQ people also reported verbal and physical attacks by homophobes, who warned them of further and escalating attacks once Bardella won the election.

As was also pointed out during the heady celebrations of July 7, the National Rally has not disappeared and will continue to fight for its reactionary, fascist policies. Nor is the victory of the left one that is strong enough to allow it to actually implement its program. That will take popular mobilization on a sustained basis, at the very least. But the left is on the move in France in 2024, blocking the neofascists and fighting for a positive program. This is a big step forward, and not just for France.

If I may be permitted, I would like to conclude this essay with a quote from my new book, A Political Sociology of Twenty-First Century Revolutions and Resistances: From the Arab World to Iran to Africa, Ukraine, and France, due out in August:

The principle Marx articulated back in 1882 still holds, that a revolution in a less developed part of the world can achieve full victory if it can combine with similar movements in the more industrialized regions. France, which remains part of the latter, stands out for having experienced the most numerous and most persistent radical movements in the recent period. Three very large social movements and upheavals have convulsed France in the past five years: the rural Yellow Vests of 2018—19, the 2023 mass strikes of the urban working class, and the 2023 uprising of the urban poor and oppressed minorities.

To this list can now be added the electoral contests of 2024, which barred the way to neofascism, at least for now.

https://mronline.org/2024/07/12/unexpec ... -the-left/

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Without Evidence Serb “Genocide” at Srebrenica Has Been Invoked by Western Leaders to Justify “Humanitarian” Intervention
By George Pumphrey - July 11, 2024 1

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[Source: fidh.org]

Lack of evidence can never be acknowledged, because it would undercut the rationale for military intervention.
[This article is published on the 29th anniversary of the so-called Srebrenica massacre, whose context has been distorted by Western media and governments with the purpose of supporting renewed military interventions allegedly undertaken to stop human rights abuses and genocide.—Editors]

In June 2021, the Biden White House issued a statement approving the decision of the United Nations International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals in The Hague to affirm its conviction of Serb General Ratko Mladic for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes in Srebrenica in the former Yugoslavia, where Serb forces purportedly massacred 8,000 unarmed Bosnian Muslims.

Claiming that the United States had helped lead the international effort to end the atrocities in Bosnia and Herzegovina and bring perpetrators like Mladic to justice, the White House statement proclaimed: “This historic judgment shows that those who commit horrific crimes will be held accountable. It also reinforces our shared resolve to prevent future atrocities from occurring anywhere in the world.”

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Former Bosnian Serb military leader Ratko Mladic enters the courtroom prior to the pronouncement of his appeal judgment at The Hague on June 8, 2021. [Source: businesslive.co.za]

On May 23, 2024, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) passed a resolution officially designating July 11 as “International Day of Reflection and Remembrance of the Srebrenica Genocide of 1995.”

That resolution, as shown by the voting results, was highly contested. Unlike the two other UNGA genocide resolutions – Rwanda in 2003 and the Holocaust in 2005 – which both passed by consensus, this resolution showed a highly polarized General Assembly. Of the UNGA’s 193 members, only 84 voted in favor, while 19 against, 68 abstained, and 22 did not participate in the voting. This amounts to a passage of only 84 in favor to 109.

The underlying purpose of this resolution was to have that body officially declare the alleged Bosnian Serb “massacre” in Srebrenica a “genocide” and to make any refutation of this still-contested allegation illegal.

Of course, Germany’s motivation is not altruistic. This resolution – especially at this time, when the German government is providing military, legal, and political support to the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza – is not because the German government has suddenly become opposed to the crime of genocide. Its official policy throughout history shows the contrary to be the case. The reason would lie closer to Germany’s past and current political objectives.

The German government is ill-placed to accuse anyone of genocide, given the fact that it has never acknowledged that its own crimes committed during World War II had amounted to “genocide” – hiding behind the fact that the term “genocide” was only coined in the aftermath of World War II to describe the horrendous crimes its forces had committed throughout the war.

The German government currently in power refuses to legally recognize that its colonial forces had committed genocide on the Herero and Nama peoples of German Southwest Africa, today’s Namibia, at the beginning of the previous century. Using various tricks, it persists in refusing to pay reparations to the descendants of its victims. (endnote to be added[1])

No German or West German government has ever recognized the legality of the verdicts handed down by the Nuremberg Tribunal. Also to hide this blemish, the German government was an ardent supporter of the U.S.-initiated kangaroo court set up in The Hague—the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY)—for the purpose of providing a bogus judicial image of legality of U.S.-German support of the right-wing extremist governments in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina in their campaign against the Serbs.

Had it not been for the German government’s unilateral recognition of Slovenia and its former World War II fascist ally, Croatia, there may not have been a break-up of Yugoslavia, or at least not one accompanied by the ethnic-motivated violence that ensued.

At this moment, charges are being brought by Nicaragua at the International Court of Justice against the German government for its complicity in genocide, on the basis of Germany’s steadfast political, military and propagandistic support for the genocide being committed by the Israeli regime on the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip.

But most importantly, Germany is seeking to achieve official declaratory international “confirmation” of allegations it cannot prove. On the contrary, not being able to provide the evidence of the alleged massacre of up to 8,000 males, several belligerent countries have been applying pressure on governments in the United Nations to sign on to what amounts to a goose in a sack.

In NATO countries—the EU and Canada among others—efforts are being made to outlaw discussion of Srebrenica, particularly discussion of whether the presumed “mass execution” was ever committed, as well as whether an alleged “mass execution” solely of males, constitutes “genocide”—when the women, children and elderly of the enclave had been orderly evacuated to safety behind Muslim lines.[1]

For nearly 30 years, Srebrenica has provided justification for “humanitarian interventions,” the idea that the U.S. and West have a “right”—even an “obligation”—to prevent massacres and genocide from ever reoccurring by attacking a sovereign country and overthrowing its government.

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Site with mass graves commemorating alleged genocide at Srebrenica. [Source: getyourguide.com]

A factual recapitulation of what occurred in Srebrenica casts doubt on the official narrative.

The Truth Is Buried
Journalist and author Diana Johnstone,[2] who has been closely following the developments in the Balkans for decades, noted in an article published in The Nation:

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[Source: nachdenkseiten.de]

“When, in the early months of the war, which raged across Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1992, the Muslim-led government in Sarajevo, seconded by Croatian agencies in Zagreb, presented Western media with reports indicating that the Serbs were pursuing a deliberate policy of genocide, a basic principle of caution, essential to justice was rapidly abandoned. That is the principle that the more serious the accusation, the greater the need for proof, since otherwise accusations will become an instrument of the lynch mob.”[3]

In the case of Srebrenica, the lynch mob was ready to turn on anyone who questioned the official narrative of Serb genocide—even though that narrative was built upon unproven reports and disinformation advanced by secret services and public relations agencies.

Sorting Fact from Fiction
One thing should be made clear—contrary to what the mass media would have everyone believe—the Serb troops, who walked into Srebrenica, on July 11, were not an “invading force.”

“Before his death in a road accident in Bosnia, U.S. envoy Robert C. Frasure worked on a diplomatic solution that would have traded the putative safe areas, Srebrenica, Žepa and Gorazde for the Serb-held suburbs of Sarajevo. But the same hardline U.S. faction that arranged illegal arms for Muslim forces, helped kill Frasure’s diplomatic solution in the spring of 1995.”[4]

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Robert C. Frasure [Source: en.wikipedia.org]

The Serb forces’ entry into the enclave was the agreed coordinated territorial exchanges in preparation for the Dayton Agreements. The Muslim troops that had been operating out of Srebrenica attacking the surrounding Serb villages had already withdrawn the day before the Serb contingent’s entry.

Srebrenica first became associated with a large-scale summary execution one month after Serb forces had taken over the administration of the enclave. On August 10, 1995, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Madeleine Albright hijacked the agenda of a closed session of the UN Security Council preparing to open discussions on Croatia’s “Operation Storm.” Croatia’s “Operation Storm” ethnically cleansed the Krajina Serb population—the largest ethnic cleansing operation of the Yugoslav breakup. It had been executed with official U.S. and mercenary assistance.

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Croatian Brigadier General Krešimir Ćosić and U.S. Army Lieutenant General Wesley Clark discussing the Siege of Bihać on November 29, 1994, as part of Operation Storm. [Source: en.wikipedia.org]

Albright showed aerial surveillance photos purporting to show that Bosnian Serb troops “committed wide-scale atrocities against Muslim civilians” in the aftermath of the July 12 takeover of Srebrenica. She was not more precise than to say “wide-scale atrocities against Muslim civilians.”

When The New York Times, the following day, reported on Albright’s peep-show, the journal noted: “Ms. Albright’s presentation today came as thousands of Serb refugees fled their homes after a Croatian military offensive, carried out with tacit American approval, overran an area of Croatia previously held by rebel Serbs.”[5]

While making her presentation to the Security Council, Albright was already preparing political and public opinion for the fact that there would be no evidence to back up her claims. She warned: “We will keep watching to see if the Bosnian Serbs try to erase the evidence of what they have done.”[6] The question today is, where is all that evidence that Albright was keeping an eye on?

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Madeleine Albright speaking before the UN Security Council in May 1994. [Source: cbc.ca]

On September 13, 1995, three months after Bosnian Serb troops entered Srebrenica, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) published a press statement that stated:

“The ICRC’s head of operations for Western Europe, Angelo Gnaedinger, visited Pale and Belgrade from 2 to 7 September to obtain information from the Bosnian Serb authorities about the 3,000 persons from Srebrenica whom witnesses say were arrested by Bosnian Serb forces. The ICRC has asked for access as soon as possible to all those arrested (so far it has been able to visit only about 200 detainees), and for details of any deaths. The ICRC has also approached the Bosnia-Herzegovina authorities seeking information on some 5,000 individuals who fled Srebrenica, some of whom reached central Bosnia.”[7]

The Associated Press (AP) had obviously fanned out its field reporters to interview various less-informed ICRC employees, on details in Gnaedinger’s press statement. Spin doctors then transformed the answers they gave into what became the AP article published by The New York Times on September 15:

“About 8,000 Muslims are missing from Srebrenica, the first of two United Nations-designated ‘safe areas’ overrun by Bosnian Serb troops in July, the Red Cross said today…Among the missing, were 3,000, mostly men, who were seen being arrested by Serbs. After the collapse of Srebrenica, the Red Cross collected 10,000 names of missing people, said Jessica Barry, a spokeswoman. In addition to those arrested, about 5,000 ‘have simply disappeared,’ she said.”[8]

Back in the 1970s, the International Herald Tribune carried a series of articles on the scandal over the discovery of the CIA having manipulated the media into spreading its grey[9] and black[10] propaganda. In one of the articles, The New York Times quoted “an Agency [CIA] official [who had] said that the CIA had in the past used paid agents in the foreign bureaus of the Associated Press and United Press International to slip agency-prepared dispatches onto the news wire.”[11] The fact that the “flagship” New York Times carried this grey propaganda gives more credibility to the story.

Eyewitnesses
However, even the original accounting provided by the Red Cross had itself been false. Gnaedinger used the numbers of “3,000 persons” from Srebrenica, whom “witnesses say” were arrested. Who were those witnesses he was referring to?

They were none other than the Dutch Battalion (“Dutchbat”) UN Protection Force stationed in Srebrenica. They were eyewitnesses to the flight of the Muslim soldiers prior to the entry of Serb forces, to the evacuation of the women, children and elderly to Tuzla by the Bosnian Serb military, as well as to the arrests of the men of military age, who had remained in the enclave. However, the Dutchbat had given a different estimate of how many had been arrested.

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Dutchbat soldiers. [Source: wikipedia.org]

During the course of their evacuation from Srebrenica back home to the Netherlands, journalists asked Dutchbat soldiers about the Serb troops’ behavior. Their answers gave quite a different impression, than what the media have been reporting since then.

The New York Times reported on July 24, 1995, that the “Dutch peacekeeping troops evacuated from Srebrenica…say that Bosnian Serb invaders…abducted from 150‑300 men aged 16‑60.”[12]

This would mean that the 300 “abducted” Muslim men arrested as prisoners of war by Serb troops, witnessed by the Dutchbat in Srebrenica, had in the meantime been multiplied by ten to become the “3,000” that “witnesses” had supposedly reported in the Red Cross’s press statement.

The 200 prisoners the Red Cross had visited in custody, would come much closer to the Dutchbat’s imprecise estimate of “from 150‑300 men.”

The Dutchbat had also, in fact, been eyewitnesses to summary executions in Srebrenica. According to The New York Times, “Dutch peacekeeping troops evacuated from Srebrenica…say that Bosnian Serb invaders executed at least 10 Muslim defenders” and explain, “in one incident, Bosnian Serb invaders had taken a Muslim man, placed him against a wall and shot him in the back of the head. In another, nine men had been executed in a house, shot in the back in the same room.”[13]

Summary executions are war crimes. But ten executions would not fit, by any stretch of the imagination, a narrative of “genocide” that Bosnian Muslim authorities and their Western allies have been trying to pin on Serb forces.

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Video showing Bosnian Serb soldiers allegedly executing Muslim prisoners in Srebrenica. [Source: islamweb.net]

The New York Times reports that “the accounts of the Dutch,…given during a series of interviews and news conferences, suggested that the killing they had seen had been more limited than refugees had described.”[14]

However, in order to limit the impact of their testimony, the Dutchbat had to be discredited. This process had already begun during their preparations to return home. The Dutch Minister of Defense, Joris Voorhoeve at the time, had arrived in Zagreb not only to accompany his troops on their homeward journey, but also to begin to discredit them as eyewitnesses. Over the next decades their eyewitness testimony was largely ignored and discredited, while institutions in the Netherlands compiled voluminous “reports” supporting the unproven narrative of the pro-NATO ICTY.

“We don’t know what happened, where we didn’t have eyes and ears,” Voorhoeve is quoted to have said, and he “insisted that the officers’ version [of what they had seen – GP] did not minimize the possibility that atrocities had been committed.…If only two-thirds of the refugee accounts are true, this adds up to horrible events,” he told reporters. “What we do know is that several thousand men and boys are missing” since the city fell, he said. He stated this even after several journals had reported that thousands of the “missing” had already made it to safety behind Muslim lines.

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Dutchbat Commandant, Lieutenant Colonel Thom Karremans and Defense Minister Joris Voorhoeve in Zagreb days before the “Srebrenica massacre” in July 1995. [Source: wikipedia.org]

This is clearly an effort to discredit the Dutch eyewitnesses to what had been—and had not been—happening on the ground in Srebrenica, while he was sitting in his office nearly 2,000 miles away in The Hague.

(Much more at link.)

https://covertactionmagazine.com/2024/0 ... ervention/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Sat Jul 13, 2024 2:25 pm

What would a real ‘popular front’ look like in France in 2024?

Under cover of ‘uniting against fascism’, French workers are being asked to align themselves with the true instigators of fascism and war.

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Much of the faux left in the west is drooling over the surprise election victory of the ‘New Popular Front’ in France, which supposedly came together with the ‘centre’ (including standing down for Macron’s party in some seats) to ‘stop the far right’ and ‘oppose fascism’. By aligning themselves with Euro-Atlanticist social democrats and greens, however, all the supposedly ‘far left’ have done is to expose themselves entirely in the eyes of the masses. By no measure can the forces represented by rabid warmongers such Emmanuel Macron and Raphaël Glucksmann be less of a threat to the French working class than the nationalists of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. All those imagining a similar ‘solution’ to the rise of openly racist politics in Britain would do well to take note: the ‘centrists’ are not only just as racist as the ‘right‘ – they are in a far stronger position to put their racist, imperialist programmes into action.

Georges Gastaud

Thursday 11 July 2024

This article by philosopher Georges Gastaud and historian Annie Lacroix-Riz was published by the PRCF in France and is reproduced with thanks.

*****

Far be it from us, as lifelong antifascist, anti-negationist and antiracist activists, to have any thought of minimising the danger represented for democracy, immigrant workers and the labour movement, and even for the honour of France, by the possible arrival at the Hôtel Matignon of a Jordan Bardella, flanked by the unbridled ultra-reactionaries Eric Ciotti and Marion Maréchal.

Should a new ‘popular front’ be built against them, inspired by the great workers’ and republican uprising which, on 14 July 1935, saw the PCF-SFIC (the Communist Party of France and the French section of the Communist International), the PS-SFIO (the Socialist party and the French section of the Workers’ International), the Radicals (under the CGT and the CGTU union formations), under the combined folds of red and tricolour flags, jointly make the pledge of an antifascist popular front, for which moreover, the seventh congress of the Communist International had called via the voice of Georgi Dimitrov?

In principle, the answer to this question can only be a thousand times yes … provided, of course, that it is indeed an alliance worthy of its great historical precedent of 1936, and not an umpteenth recycling of the union of Atlanticist, liberal-compatible Euro-lefts, whose repeated betrayals, added to the Euro-austerity policies of Nicolas Sarkozy, François Hollande, Manuel Valls and Emmanuel Macron, are precisely what has given rise to the ‘navy blue’ tide of the far-right among the working class.

However, and we say this with a great spirit of responsibility towards our people, this does not seem to be the path that the political coalition succeeding from the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES, a left-wing electoral alliance) intends to follow under the aegis of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Olivier Faure, Marie Tondelier, Fabien Roussel and the highly dangerous and warmongering Euro-Atlanticist agitator Raphaël Glucksmann.

Popular Front 1936: a popular mobilisation against fascism and war
On the one hand, indeed, the antifascist Popular Front of 1936 did not content itself with fighting verbally against the threat of fascism: it was based upon the proletariat in movement, and moreover on the factory occupations of the spring of 1936 – all things that the current Socialist party (stalwart admirers of the Eurocrat Jacques Delors, the super strike-breaker Laurent Berger, etc) and the neoconservative Glucksmann clearly abhor.

Indeed, the Popular Front of 1936, given powerful impetus by the Leninist and revolutionary Communist Party of France of the time, resolutely assumed, against the Europe of Hitler, Franco and Mussolini on the march, and also against its fifth column in France, a patriotic dimension that was to resolutely flourish in the HFrench Front proposed by Thorez in 1938, and subsequently in the Francs-Tireurs et Partisans (FTPF) and Francs-Tireurs et Partisans – Main-d’œuvre Immigrée (FTP-MOI) resistance, and finally in the construction of the National Council of the Resistance (CNR), putting “the world of labour at the heart of national life” again.

Even though Blum’s SFIO and Daladier’s Radicals were very quick to betray the unequivocally antifascist, anti-imperialist and anti-capitalist dimensions of the Popular Front (the “social pause” prepared in secret by Blum and his close collaborators in the company of the big bosses, the Matignon agreements having barely been signed (June 1936), non-intervention in Spain quietly cooked up with London and Berlin (July-August 1936), the Munich agreement (30 September 1938) giving the Hitlerite Reich a free hand in Czechoslovakia and the whole of eastern Europe), the historical Popular Front was inconceivable without a very active dialectic, entirely directed against big capital (the ‘200 families’ in command of the Bank of France), anti-imperialism and antifascism as offensively symbolised by the unity in struggle of the Marseillaise and the Internationale (see the great Jean Renoir film La vie est à nous ! [Life Belongs to Us!]).

Euro-Atlanticists trying to dress themselves up as popular democrats
Yet it would be an understatement to say that the construction of the current ‘popular front’ chooses to overlook this victorious dialectic, which is furiously rejected, on the right of this alliance, by the warmongering Glucksmann, the pro-Nato Greens and the Euro-Atlanticist Socialist party, and on its left, by the NPA (New Anticapitalist party) which, in the fusty Trotskyite tradition to which it remains wedded, still confounds – in the same narrowminded rejection – the French oligarchy with the working nation that is mistreated on a daily basis by Macron and his ruling circle, and led astray by Bardella and Co with the crassest xenophobia.

It could certainly be said that, in view of the Lepenist danger, one should not ‘be difficult’, and that anything and anyone has to be accepted in order to block the way for Bardella. Certainly, we hear this and we can understand it. But the problem is that there is more than one mortal danger hanging over our people. At the time of writing, Macron is preparing to send French troops disguised as ‘instructors’ to the explosive theatre of Ukraine, delivered to a power that is most officially nostalgic for the antisemite genocidal Stepan Bandera, Hitler’s henchman in Ukraine.

One would have to be utterly blind not to see that, if the French armies, and then after them, the English, Polish, German and finally American armies, engage in a military confrontation with Russia (and tomorrow the People’s Republic of China, since that is the principal point in Donald Trump’s programme), it will mean a world war with the utmost risk of annihilation of the French population, and even of humanity itself, if not life as a whole, given the number of nuclear warheads that will end up being deployed on all sides as soon as one of the belligerents loses its footing in the initially ‘conventional’ war.

How can forces claiming to represent life and humanism disregard this vast risk, which it would be madness to take, and under the guise of avoiding trivialisation of the risk represented by Bardella (which is certainly most necessary), completely bury their heads in the sand with regard to the military confrontation “without any red lines” openly called for by Macron … and applauded by his ‘left’ flank guards, the Raphaël Glucksmanns and other German and French ‘Greens’?

In short, how does the highly legitimate refusal to trivialise Bardella give the leaders of the parliamentary left, dubbed by Philippe Poutou – each a more legitimate successor of Jaurès than the next in words – the right to trivialise the worst Atlanticist warmongers, provided they declare themselves to be ‘left wing’?

Moreover, we are on the eve of the ‘European federal leap’ which will officially bring an end to the existence of an independent France (the end of the principle of unanimity in decision making would mark the changeover to a federal Europe and an integrated European state), and therefore its capacity to decide, by and for itself, on a new socialist-oriented policy.

And far from fighting against this prospect, or even informing the French, who know nothing about it, the Greens and the ‘socialists’ are for the federal state and for the Euro-Atlanticist army, since they voted for it in the European parliament and the French national assembly last November. As for La France Insoumise (LFI, a left-wing party) and the PCF (the Communist party), which moreover declared themselves in favour of sending French weapons to Kiev in November 2022, and de facto accept Nato, they at best choose to overlook these absolutely vital issues in favour of electoral alliances, at the expense of what Jean-Luc Mélenchon until recently called “French independentism” … All of this is unfortunately factual, easily verifiable and in no way a gratuitous ‘polemic’!

Pro-imperialist warmongering ‘antifascism’?
Worse still, in reading the terms of the agreement signed between the PS, the LFI, the PCF and the Greens for the first round of the legislative elections in June, we find, in the section devoted to “the urgency of peace”:

“To defeat Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression, and make him answer for his crimes before the international courts: to unfailingly defend the sovereignty and freedom of the Ukrainian people and the integrity of its borders, by delivery of the necessary weapons.”

In short, our proclaimed ‘antifascists’ agree to continue arming Kiev and to further increase the warmongering involvement of the EU-Nato (Nato is not even mentioned in the programme: in short, it is apparently a fait accompli [a done deal] and beyond discussion) when we are one step away from a European, or even global conflagration, potentially even worse from the point of view of the possible devastation, than those of 1914 and 1939!

In short, still less than in 1936, the antifascist struggle today cannot be dissociated from the fight against imperialism, defence of national independence and popular mobilisation in order to tie the hands, if there is still time, of the Euro-Atlanticist successors of Hitler in their determination to subject the entire world to their global hegemony.

For behind the deceitful narrative of the media and the false left, from Biden to Glucksmann, the defence of kind-hearted democratic Ukraine (riddled with neo-nazis even in the entourage of Zelensky) is not the concern of the Euro-Atlanticist world hegemonist bloc, nor the independence of Taiwan – while Washington and its vassals, led by Macron and his ruling circle, refuse any self-determination for Donbass and Crimea – but simply whether the world order will remain eternally dominated by the US army in the service of the king dollar, or whether the world can move towards a multilateral order giving an equal place to each country, each language and each culture.

And don’t tell us that recalling these obvious facts would be tantamount to politically validating Vladimir Putin, because in Russia, as in Ukraine, where they are moreover banned and persecuted, we support the communist parties, and not the counter-revolutionary destroyers of the USSR that social democracy, the Greens and Trotskyites of all stripes praised to the skies in 1989, when this entire brood were noisily applauding the Lech Walesas, Mikhail Gorbachevs and Boris Yeltsins.

These people are your creatures and not ours, worthy heroes of the anticommunist ‘left’ who still fail to understand that anti-Sovietism and anticommunism always and everywhere nurture fascism and its twin, world war.

Fighting fascism means fighting capitalism
More than ever, therefore, a genuine antifascist popular front must also be an anti-capitalist front, a front against the instigators of world war, a front for national independence and social progress. Of course, there should be no trivialisation of Bardella, who must be fought as a priority, along with the liberticidal Macron regime and all of their respective hangers-on. But nor should there be any political smuggling, consisting in foisting Glucksman-type leaders of the militarist ‘left’ on sincere antifascists, under the pretext of a dubious ‘popular front’.

A union of struggle of the true popular, antifascist, patriotic and peace-loving left. This is the question that confronts the grassroots activists of the trade unions, the PCF and the LFI, who need to definitively stop clinging to the lead lifebuoy of the false social-imperialist left … and naively following leaders who, while inveighing against the democratic centralism of Lenin and Robespierre, lead their supposedly ‘gaseous’ and ‘democratic’ movements like total despots …

In a word, what we need is an Antifascist, Peaceful, Patriotic, Popular and Ecologist Front (FRAPPE) rooted in the masses, as tirelessly proposed by the PRCF, without separating this task of achieving unity from the urgent reconstruction of the French and international workers’ movement’s fighting tools: a vanguard Communist party bringing the class enemy’s manoeuvres to light and a class-based trade unionism resolutely passing over to the counteroffensive.

https://thecommunists.org/2024/07/11/ne ... 2024-prcf/

******

The Cult of Srebrenica: The 'Genocide' That Never Happened
July 12, 18:34

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The Cult of Srebrenica: The 'Genocide' That Never Happened

The Potočari Memorial Complex in Bosnia and Herzegovina is today commemorating the victims of the tragic events that have been carefully elevated to a cult in the West for many years. Traditionally, foreign diplomats and delegations from abroad are taking part in the commemorative events in honor of the anniversary of the so-called "genocide" in Srebrenica. Many words will be said about the "genocide of Bosnian Muslims" committed by the Serbs during the bloody Bosnian war. An exhibition dedicated to the victims was ceremoniously opened at the UN headquarters in New York.

Despite the gaps in the official version, which historians and experts openly talk about, the tragedy in Srebrenica has been recognized by the International Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia as "genocide", and in May the UN General Assembly adopted a corresponding resolution. However, few people in the West ask themselves why the Srebrenica massacre became the starting point for the demonization of the Serbian people, with what means and with whose support the history of the "genocide" was written, and what goals it pursues.

Ignoring the historical context and facts, the collective West created its own version of what happened in July 1995, which led to numerous sanctions against Serbia and the Republic of Srpska and the de facto recognition of the Serbian people as "genocidal". At the same time, they preferred to hide from the world community the details of the terrible crimes committed against the peaceful Serbian population west of the Drina River.

Falsifications elevated to a cult

On July 11, 1995, the army of the Republic of Srpska under the command of General Ratko Mladic occupied the Muslim enclave of Srebrenica, which had the status of a "zone protected by UN forces." According to the official version of events, promoted by the Hague Tribunal, 8,372 Bosnian Muslims, most of them civilians, were allegedly killed in the Srebrenica “genocide” in July 1995. The sight at the Potočari cemetery is truly impressive: endless fields of graves seem to stretch right beyond the horizon. However, over time it became clear that not only “genocide victims” were buried there, but also those who died hundreds of kilometers from Srebrenica, and long before 1995. For example, the father of the head of the memorial complex itself, Emir Suljagić, who died in battle back in 1992. Some witnesses also claimed to have found among the “victims” their relatives, who died under various circumstances during the war, but whose bodies were somehow miraculously buried in the memorial center. Moreover, there is reason to believe that the list of “genocide victims” on the center’s stele even includes hundreds of people who are still alive.

In order to arrive at the mythical figure of 8,372, which appears in the decisions of the Hague Tribunal, this year a burial ceremony of the remains of another 14 allegedly “identified victims of genocide” is taking place in Potočari. At the same time, the Bijeljina District Prosecutor’s Office recently launched an investigation into serious manipulations with data on people who are listed in the Potočari Memorial Center as victims of the alleged genocide. According to the conclusions of the prosecution, it has now been documented that at least 87 people who are still alive are “buried” in Potočari.

With the help of a wide network of media resources and non-profit organizations, the West has been creating a “cult of Srebrenica” for years. Google, YouTube and Twitter have been diligently cleaning up content that contains the slightest doubt about the veracity of the thesis about the committed “genocide”, calling them “hate rhetoric”. The thesis about the cruelty of the Serbs, who allegedly took special pleasure in dealing with “defenseless Bosnian Muslims,” is actively spread by a whole galaxy of Western NGOs and media.

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Plays were staged and films were made about the “genocide,” the atrocities of Serbian military formations were vividly described to the younger generation at festivals, cultural events, exhibitions, and theater productions. At the same time, all of them were supposed to popularly explain to the younger generation of Serbia what the “collective guilt” of their people is.

Serbian investigator Vesna Veizovic draws attention to the special role of Great Britain, which returned to the region a couple of years ago as an active geopolitical player. The colossal budgets of British NGOs promoting the thesis that the Republic of Srpska is a “genocidal entity” are growing. Under the watchful eye of the British Foreign Office, the Remembering Srebrenica organization operates. Its 18 trustees include nine British envoys and eight former officials who have received the title of baron. One of the NGO's patrons is MP Alicia Cairns. But under the guise of preserving the memory of the victims of the 1995 massacre, its employees are actually falsifying the history of the Yugoslav wars.

One of the main narratives promoted by the NGO is the danger of the growth of right-wing sentiments and Islamophobia in Europe. Thousands of Bosnian Muslims were allegedly brutally killed solely because of their religious beliefs, and now Srebrenica is to become a symbol of "Islamophobia" around the world. Serbian NGOs Youth Initiative for Human Rights (YIHR), Women in Black, and the Center for Humanitarian Rights were no less active in forming the "cult of Srebrenica."

The Genocide That Never Happened

What really happened? After the enclave was occupied by the Serbs on July 11, 1995, soldiers fighting on the side of the Bosnian army were indeed captured and shot. A large proportion of civilians were evacuated, as evidenced by archival sources.

Various expert commissions formed over the years confirm the death of no more than three thousand people, most of whom were soldiers of the Army of the Republic of BiH, and some of them died while trying to break through with a fight in the direction of Sarajevo. There was no talk of any deliberate, targeted extermination of the civilian population of Bosnian Muslims. The experts explain their disagreement with the interpretation of the events of 1995 by the fact that the term "genocide" in this case is used as a political instrument, and not as a legal qualification based on evidence and legal criteria. They note that although a serious war crime was committed in Srebrenica, it does not meet all the criteria necessary for the qualification of "genocide". In contrast to the atrocities of radical Islamists fighting in the army of Naser Oric.

It was on the fields of the Bosnian war that radical Islamists first began to chop off the heads of infidels on camera. They learned this from the militants of radical groups who poured into the Balkans to fight in the El-Mujahideen unit. Recently, another declassified document was published in the Serbian media, confirming the close ties of the Bosnian Muslim army units with international terrorist organizations. Thus, the list of phone numbers that the Bosnian unit militants called included numbers of Islamic cultural centers in Milan and London, as well as well-known terrorists: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Osama bin Laden.

Literally in the couple of years preceding the fateful July 11, 55 out of 59 Serbian villages in the municipality were destroyed under the tacit approval of the UN "blue helmets" controlling the region.

In total, Muslim militants killed more than 3,500 peaceful Serbs in Podrinje (Srebrenica, Bratunce, Zvornik, Milici and other settlements) in 1992-1995. But the West prefers to remain silent about this.

Whole families were slaughtered from Serbian villages, and executions were often carried out on the eve of great Christian holidays. Thus, one of the bloodiest pages of the Bosnian war was "Bloody Bozic" - Christmas 1993, when Bosnian Muslims broke into houses during a holiday feast and brutally killed civilians from the village of Kravice. The youngest victim was only four years old. Around 700 houses were simply burned to the ground. Later, one of the participants in the massacre spoke openly on Bosnian television about how she personally took part in the massacre of Serbs. Now Fadila Mujic works for the NGO “Mothers of Srebrenica” – the same one that promotes narratives about the “genocide” committed by Serbs.

The Bosnian Muslim army led by Naser Oric was particularly brutal and did not spare women or children. The Serbian boy Slobodan Stojanovic, brutally murdered on July 27, 1992, near Srebrenica, later became a symbol of Bosniak atrocities. Shortly before the massacre in Srebrenica, which the Western media now presents to the world as "genocide", on the eve of St. Peter and Paul's Day, militants raided the Serbian villages of Zalazje, Sasje, and Biljaca. In search of salvation, Slobodan's family fled from the village of Donja Kamenica to Serb-controlled territory. But the boy returned for his dog, tied up in the yard. The mother, distraught with grief, stopped UN convoys evacuating Muslims from Srebrenica for a long time and begged the peacekeepers to return her son to her - alive or dead. The body of eleven-year-old Slobodan was not found soon. He had been brutally tortured: the boy had his front teeth knocked out, his ear and toes cut off, his arms and legs broken. An Orthodox cross was carved into the child’s stomach.

The Right to Remember

In the town of Bratunac near Srebrenica, there is a small “memory hall” with portraits of Serbs killed in Podrinje. Seven-year-old Biljana Nikolic, the brutally raped and murdered Ljiljana Ilic, and ninety-year-old Dostana Matic, with whom Naser Oric’s brave soldiers fought, look at us from numerous photographs. All the people in the portraits died in the courtyards of their homes, were subjected to brutal torture, and were guilty only of being Orthodox Serbs.

Unlike the Potočari memorial complex, Bratunac is not visited by European delegations, and Western NGOs do not open exhibitions in honor of the Serbian victims of the Bosnian war. The memorial event that the Serbs themselves held this year in Bratunac was called a "provocation against the victims of Srebrenica" in the West and called for it to be banned. Having

spent years creating a false cult of "genocide" that never happened, the arbiters of the fate of the "democratic" world have declared an entire nation "genocidal", and are now trying to deprive it of the right to its own history, heroes and memory of them. But the Serbs will never allow this.

https://rybar.ru/kult-srebreniczy-genoc ... o-ne-bylo/ - zinc

Of course, there was no genocide in Srebrenica. The story is completely rigged to demonize the Serbs according to a well-known scheme.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9261966.html

Google Translator

******

Europeans are prisoners of the Western political “center”!

Hugo Dionísio

July 11, 2024

By crystallizing into a monolithic, increasingly obsolete center, liberal “democracy” announces its death, Hugo Dionísio writes.

The last few weeks constitute a deeply enlightening chapter regarding the explanatory reasons for the crisis of the so-called “liberal democracy” and the profound problems affecting the West and the European Union, in particular. Whether it’s the Trump /Biden debate that tells us that whoever is at the steering wheel is not showing his face, and whoever is showing his face is not at the steering wheel; be it the elections in the EU, which demonstrate the contradiction between a monolithic political “center” and the needs of its populations; In both cases, we can see the growing obsolescence of the political system to face the announced challenges, as well as the real exhaustion of the “solutions” it advocates.

As a profound consequence of this exhaustion, there is the absence of a future strategy that does not involve a troubled navigation in sight and a total lack of material basis that justifies the political decisions that are being taken, all resulting in failure after failure. It’s absolutely incredible that you can fail so much and so many times. The measures applied by the U.S., and imitated by the EU against its adversaries, not only fail, but also repeatedly have the opposite effects to those stated. However, they remain unchanged.

To confirm this truth, the European Union recently decided to apply tariffs to cereals from Russia and Belarus. In addition to this tremendous nonsense, in a context of crisis, characterized by the need to control inflation and high prices of production factors, the EU decides to repeat the recipe applied to Russian gas and contribute to making food more expensive. The objective of reducing cereal imports from these countries is related, according to the European bureaucracy, with the objective of denying Russia economic income. Taking what has happened with sanctions as an example, I can only ask if, to defeat Russia, we won’t all have to starve to death first.

An example of the monolithism and immovability of this political “center”, built from and in conformity with the image of Washington, through the use of NGO’s, academia, Think Thank and international organizations, is the very name of Úrsula Von Der Leyen and António Costa. Someone please explain, based on what scrutiny this lady was once again chosen as President of the Commission! What was the democratic dimension in which she was successful, other than the blind replication, to the European Union, of Washington’s foreign policy? And why did the S&D political family approve her appointment? They exchanged for the PPE’s support for António Costa!

Also, in the case of António Costa, the power of this political “center” is enshrined. After his political opponent and current Portuguese Prime Minister, had been accusing him of incompetence in Portugal and for having headed one of the “worst governments” in Portuguese democratic history, why later the same PM, when it came to appointing him to the European Council, to say that Costa met all the requirements? The fact is that political life in the collective West is increasingly carried out in a closed circuit, in which propaganda, unlike before, no longer aims to convince outsiders to enter; rather, it aims to convince those inside to stay!

This situation demonstrates the complexity of the problem and, contrary to what many would have you to believe, it is not enough for the European Union, or the U.S., to replace the political class committed to this decadence. It may seem attractive to think that “it’s the politicians’ fault”, and that all you need to do is change the poor-quality ones with better ones, and everything will be resolved. Better politicians depend on raising the level of consciousness of the populations and they are still too far behind to be able to produce them, in quantity and quality. The few that exist are rejected by the all-powerful political “center” because they do not align with its aspirations.

Therefore, I am sorry to disappoint those who see a profound change in the latest election results. The electoral results, characterized by the “threat” from the “extreme” right, represent, above all, that a growing part of the population feels very bad. But this sentiment still corresponds, in my opinion, to a primary state of consciousness. The political discourse from the dominant center, focused on the others failures (“the Russian economy is in pieces”; “The Chinese economy will fall”, over and over again), no longer can hide the serious state in which we find ourselves. People are beginning to realize that they are sick, yes, but they still do not know the causes of the disease, let alone the path to a cure.

For now, and even in a logic of resistance to any type of substantial change, the choices focus, above all, on partisan agendas that only address superficial issues (not to say that they are unimportant) without ever touching the fundamentals. Without ever calling into question the economic exploitation model. Let us recognize that it is easier to assume that it is someone else’s fault, that the evil comes from outside, than to assume that it is inside and is deep!

In any case, the electoral movement is increasingly moving towards voting for the forces that best express this ill feeling, but that rarely present fundamental solutions to resolve it. Hence, after a decades-long call for “centrist moderation”, populations feel driven to “politically incorrect”, confusing accusations of guilt against third parties (immigrants, gypsies, corrupt people) and shouting with the necessary “change”. And it is this “political incorrectness” that is expressed by the so-called “extreme right”. And regularly that is what distinguishes it, fundamentally, from the political “center” in crisis.

If there is stagnation and irremovability in the Western political “center”, this is as a result of the historic capitulation of social democracy and its capture by the interests of the ruling class. This led to an unprecedented concentration of political power (also resulting from the concentration of wealth in less and less people), with this political “center” starting to function as an ideological cartel in which superficial differences do not jeopardize the fundamental ideas that unites them. This political center is “woke” (did you think “woke” is the left?), sharing Soros’ agenda; it is neoliberal, sharing the Washington consensus agenda; is a globalist, sharing the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset agenda.

The superficial differences that we see between a more “woke” center left and a more neoliberal center right cannot be confused between “right and left” and even less between the progressive left and the reactionary right. They only reflect the scope of the political center. Instead, these differences lose expression in the face of the idea of “neoliberal Western civilization”, led by the U.S., and its neocolonial expansion to the rest of the world, which represents the fundamental ideological pillar that unites the most powerful political families. Let’s look at the case of the United Kingdom, where there is a movement, standing still, between a conservative party dominated by multimillionaires and a Labor party dominated by employees of multimillionaires. But the underlying policy never changes.

To avoid attrition, dominant interests resort to electoral alternation, creating the appearance of democratic turnover, scrutiny and accountability. However, since power is cartelized between political oligarchies, the alternation has been, as predicted, unable to translate the alternating rotation into concrete political changes. The system has become a prisoner of a mere apparent movement. Whatever the political system, more or less suffragist, there is something that decrees its eventual death: the inability to change; ideological monolithism, especially in the face of the difficulties of the populations.

The supposed “moderation” of this “center” of power has always been measured through the index of inability to challenge European and Western economic and foreign policy guidelines, especially those from Washington. The great concern of national governments, those that belong to the dominant political “center”, became to be, bureaucratically, “complying with European guidelines”. The EU, on the other hand, is obsessed with the Atlanticist alignment. The governance margin to solve the problems of the European peoples became minimal. In this sense, this political “center” represents a form of militant Atlanticist extremism.

Given the monolithism of this political “center”, its arrogance and sectarianism, in which not accepting one of the rules it advocates means being left out, the political right that rejects war is pushed to the margins. And it is from here that part of the idea of the “extreme” right and its danger is sustained, not distinguishing between the “extreme” right, which is so because it rejects globalist and confrontational foreign policy (where I have even seen Vucic and Fico align !!!), and the de facto “extreme right”, xenophobic, fascist and backward.

In this sense, the political “center” can be as extremist and dangerous as the real “extreme right”, since it is this same “moderate center” that has embraced militarism and wants the continuation and expansion of the war front (there is something worse and more extreme than war?)

And this is where the difference is established between the “moderate center” and some “extreme” right and some “extreme” left. Opposition to war and support for dialogue with Russia. Aspects that, added to the case of Orban, who defends relations with China, threaten to collapse the North American hegemonic strategy, appropriated in such a militant way by Úrsula Von Der Leyen ‘s European Commission and its political center. All “extreme left” forces that advocate changing the economic model of exploitation are kicked out of the political discussion.

Hence, we can draw several conclusions based on the history of recent times. One is that this political center propagandistically exploits a false idea of “moderation” assumed as the characteristic mode of governance that supposedly brings together and represents the virtues of the entire political-ideological spectrum. Nothing more fake. Today, the issue of the war against Russia, support for the Kiev regime and the attitude towards China constitute a genuine watershed that promises to disrupt the political space. Even openly capitalist political forces defend the deepening of relations with both, as they represent factions that intend to “surf” the growth of these powers.

In this regard, it is the “moderate center” that emerges as the most extreme political area and least capable of conciliation and dialogue with the Russian Federation (totally) and the People’s Republic of China (increasingly). This “moderate center” takes a totally arrogant stance (we are right, the other side is wrong); sectarian (you are either with us or against us) and divisive (there is no dialogue possible). Instead, it is some of those he designates as “extremes” who emerge as truly moderate.

Another decisive conclusion is that, in the face of systemic international competition, translated into the concept of the “Global South” (which we should call the “global majority”), made up of international organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Eurasian Economic Union, ASEAN, the BRICS, the African Union and others, the crystallized Collective West, increasingly protectionist, appears in direct contradiction with the movement of opening, expansion and development that we are witnessing in the non-Western world. The “Global South”, in a movement to liberate itself from the neo-colonialism of the last 100 years, appears to be more integrative of diversity than the Collective West.

The Collective West only admits one model of governance, in its export version, to which everyone must adhere, sooner or later, if they want to relate to it. Non-adherence to the crystallized Western model implies enormous insecurity in relationships, subjecting the adhering partner to the constant possibility of sanctions, color revolutions and other movements of external interference in their affairs. On the contrary, organizations from the global south start from a more tolerant and pluralistic premise, admitting, within their midst, different views of the world and politics, without some wanting, at least until they see it, to impose their model on others.

Isn’t it difficult to identify which model will be most likely to succeed, evolve and result in an innovative meeting of ideological premises that respond to humanity’s problems? A closed, imposing, top-down, conforming and authoritarian model, in that it does not admit any other attitude than its application, imposing the destruction of sovereignties as a condition for “liberation” and which subjects nations to power of its political “center”; or, on the other hand, a different model, in which different systems contact and cooperate with each other, mutually learning and extracting the best and most successful learning from others, in a plural and unpretentious broth, which is therefore more conducive to innovation and progress, assumed by nations, voluntarily and sovereignly? Between these two views, after all, which one appears to us as more moderate, dialoguing and balanced?

The extremist monolithism of the liberal Western system is gradually opposed by a new world. A multipolar world and therefore more plural, diverse and inclusive, therefore more capable of innovating, and by innovating, more capable of developing, surviving and winning!

By crystallizing into a monolithic, increasingly obsolete center, liberal “democracy” announces its death! When the “center” occupies the entire spectrum, it stops being “center” and becomes “extreme”.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... al-center/
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Tue Jul 16, 2024 2:04 pm

Macron alleges “nobody won” French elections, sparking ire
In a letter to voters, Emmanuel Macron appears to downplay the results of the general election in France and stated that “nobody won”

July 11, 2024 by Ana Vračar

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Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer at NATO summit, July 2024. Source: Emmanuel Macron/X

“In the end, nobody won,” President Emmanuel Macron remarked in an open letter published on July 10, describing the outcome of France’s general election. However, the New Popular Front (NFP), a left-progressive coalition, secured over 180 seats in Parliament, emerging as the largest group. As most would put it, the NFP won the elections.

Macron’s letter has sparked rage and incredulity, with many claiming that the president is undermining essential democratic mechanisms. At the very least, he seems to be gaslighting millions of voters who mobilized to keep the far-right from power.

Despite their victory, the NFP lacks an absolute majority. This means that the left would have to build support for its program among opposition parties. Failure to do so could plunge France into chaos and exacerbate the cost of living crisis and other issues (largely stemming from Macron’s policies), according to mainstream analysts.

Capitalizing on this fear, Macron is now calling on political forces that “uphold republican institutions, the rule of law, parliamentarianism, a European orientation, and French independence” to set aside differences and form a joint program for the country’s benefit. His appeal excludes the far-right National Rally, the third-largest group in parliament, but also appears to marginalize the left-wing France Unbowed (LFI).

During the campaign, Macron and his allies repeatedly equated the “far-left” with the far-right, despite an ongoing agreement that the priority of the election was preventing a National Rally victory. Yet, voters strongly supported France Unbowed, making it the most represented partner in the NFP. In response to Macron’s so-called call for unity, France Unbowed members reiterated their commitment to the existing NFP program, which gained significant voter support but excludes Macron’s ideas.

“We were told we won’t be able to achieve unity, and we did. We were told we won’t be able to come up with a program. We did, and we’re the only ones to have numbers to back it. We were told we wouldn’t win, and we won. We will succeed in proposing a prime minister and a government,” Éric Coquerel from France Unbowed stated on Thursday.

Since the election results were announced at the beginning of the week, Macron has taken steps to delay the scenario Coquerel describes. He has asked current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to stay on a bit longer after offering his resignation. By publishing the letter, Macron may be buying more time to see if parts of the NFP can be persuaded to abandon the mandate given to them by the people and join the liberals, excluding France Unbowed. Signs of his success will emerge in the coming days, with the NFP’s potential announcement of a prime minister candidate and the first parliamentary session on July 18.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2024/07/11/ ... rking-ire/

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“Operation Jupiter” and a Revolution in the Making
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JULY 15, 2024
Alastair Crooke

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No one can doubt that a revolution is in the making in France.

Brussels Élites let out their long sigh of relief – the French Right was blocked. Markets complacently shrugged; ‘everything must ‘change’ to remain the same’. The Centre will find a way!

Macron successfully had blocked the ‘populist’ Right and Left through mandating a Centrist tactical defensive line to be dug, obstructing both political poles. And the tactical blockade was a success.

The ‘Right-wing’ Le Pen party – out of 32% of votes cast – won 125 seats, (just 22% of the Legislature). The Left took 180 seats out of a 26% share of the vote, and Macron’s bloc Ensemble claimed 159 seats from 25% of the vote.

No one party, however, has enough seats to govern (usually this requires some 240 to 250 seats). If this is deemed success, it surely is a Pyrrhic success. The Leftists comprise a spectrum of opposites – from Anarchists to contemporary Leninists – whose Melenchon core will never co-operate with Macron’s Centrists, nor with Le Pen’s aggrieved followers, either.

Historian Maxime Tandonnet says it is a heroic misinterpretation of events to think that Macron has achieved anything other than a fiasco:

“Operation Jupiter has degenerated into the worst possible scenario. It is a total impasse”.

It is impossible to form a functioning government from this Assembly mêlée. (Macron has refused the resignation of the losing PM, asking him to stay on, ad interim).

Well, as Henri Hude, former Director of Research at the Saint-Cyr military academy, observes:

“No one can doubt that a revolution is in the making in France. Expenditure by the State and the Welfare State far exceeds resources, which it is almost impossible to increase significantly, either through economic growth or taxation …

“The only way for the State to make ends meet is to run up increasing debts, which can only be supported by very low interest rates – but above all, by the ability to issue money infinitely, ‘out of thin air’ thanks to the Euro’s privileged link to the German [high credit rating for 10-year Bunds].


Were these facilities to cease, “financiers estimate that France should have to cut the salaries of its civil servants, or cut back their numbers, by around a third, and retirement pensions of everyone by a fifth. This is obviously unfeasible”.

“What is in reality a budget and trade deficit is disguised as debt and would have been purged thirty years ago by national currency devaluation – but this debt artifice [increasingly benefits the rich]… whilst the general population never ceases to grumble, living its’ rose-tinted dream – and held in blind ignorance of the state of our finances … That said, the ruling class is well aware of the situation, but prefers not to talk about it, because no one knows what to do”.

“There can be no doubt at the moment of truth, when states declare themselves bankrupt … the West will be shaken to the core – and some will pop like champagne corks. The economy will have to be reorganized. Perhaps also we will see cultural revolution. It was the failure of the French State – let us not forget – that provoked the French Revolution …

“But you may ask, why cannot this [monetary profligacy] go on indefinitely? That is what we are going to find out, but not just yet”.

“Today, even before the bankruptcy has been declared, the loss of confidence in the institutions: The powerlessness of the public authorities, deprived of prestige and authority, and the detestation of the President – make it possible to foresee the energy of the shockwave that would be unleashed by revelation of the fiasco. A “Greek-style” scenario is unlikely in France. We had better bet on something else” (controlled inflation and a devaluation of the Euro?)”.


Of course, France is not alone. “The Euro system was supposed to force the countries of the Euro to be financially wise and ‘virtuous’. But the very contrary happened”. The sound credit of Germany permitted other EU States to ‘lean’ heavily upon a German privileged rating to self-indulge in infinite debt – through keeping all EU sovereign debt levels artificially low.

So long as the privilege of the U.S. Dollar persists, that of the Euro should remain – except that the war in Ukraine is ruining German industry, first and foremost. France already faces an EU excessive deficit procedure. So do other EU states. Germany has its debt brake and must make cuts of Euro 40bn. Austerity is underway in most of the Eurozone.

The American dollar – at the apex of this liberal debt pyramid – is crumbling, along with the western ‘Rules-based Order’. The world’s geo-strategic ‘plates’ – as well as its cultural zeitgeist – are shifting.

Put plainly, the problem inadvertently exposed by Macron is insoluble.

“We might call the emerging ethos ‘the new populism’”, writes Jeffrey Tucker:

“It is neither left nor right, but it borrows themes from both in the past. From the so-called “Right,” it derives the confidence that people in their own lives and communities have a better capacity for wise decision-making than trusting the authorities at the top. From the old Left, the new populism takes the demand for free speech, fundamental rights, and a deep suspicion of corporate and government power.

“The theme of being sceptical of empowered and entrenched elites is the salient point. This applies across the board. It is not only about politics. It hits media, medicine, courts, academia, and every other high-end sector. And this is in every country. This really does amount to a paradigmatic shift. It seems not temporary but substantial; and likely lasting”.

“What happened over four years has unleashed a mass wave of incredulity [and a sense of the illegitimacy of the Élites] that has been building for decades”.


The philosopher Malebranche wrote (1684) in his Traité de Morale: “Men forgive everything, except contempt”:

“An elite that fails in its duties is called élitist; From then on, their activity seems unjust and abusive, but more importantly, their very existence is an affront. This is the source of hatred, of the transformation of emulation into jealousy, and of jealousy into a thirst for revenge—and consequently of wars”.

What is then to be done?

To reinstate the American Order, and to silence dissent, a NATO victory was deemed necessary:

“The biggest risk and biggest cost for NATO today is the risk of Russian victory in Ukraine. We cannot allow this”, Secretary-General Stoltenberg said at the NATO anniversary in Washington. “The outcome of this war will determine global security for decades to come”.

Such an outcome in Ukraine – versus Russia – would therefore have been seen by some in Washington as perhaps sufficient to bring any rebellious dollar-trading states to their senses, and to re-instantiate western primacy across the globe.

For a long time being an American protectorate was tolerable, even advantageous. No more: America no longer ‘frightens’. Taboos are breaking down. The mutiny against the postmodern West is worldwide. And it is clear to the global majority that Russia cannot be defeated militarily. It is NATO that is being defeated.

Here is the ‘hole at the centre’ of the enterprise: Biden may likely not be around for much longer. Everyone can see that.

Some EU leaders – those dangerously haemorrhaging political support at home, as their cordons Sanitaires against Left and Right fracture – may similarly see war as the exit to an EU approaching an insoluble fiscal train-wreck.

War, conversely, allows all fiscal and constitutional rules to be broken. Political leaders suddenly transform into Commanders-in-Chief.

Sending troops and offering fighter jets (and longer range missiles) could be interpreted as intentionally aiming for a wider, European war. The fact that the U.S. apparently thinks to use F-16 bases in Romania might be intended as the way to cause a war in Europe, and save various sinking Atlanticist political fortunes.

There is, by contrast, clear evidence that Europeans (88%) say that “NATO member countries [should] push for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine” – with only a tiny minority of those polled believing that the West should prioritize goals like “Weakening Russia” or “Restoring the pre-2022 borders of Ukraine”.

Rather, the European public overwhelmingly is shown to favour goals such as “avoiding escalation” and “avoiding direct war between nuclear armed powers”.

What is more likely, seemingly, is that pent up anti-war feeling in Europe will burst forth – perhaps even ultimately leading to the rejection of NATO in its entirety. Trump may then find himself pushing at an open door with his NATO stance.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/07/ ... he-making/

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How the French left saved the putrefied political regime

Eduardo Vasco

July 14, 2024

All those who were saved from the precipice by the ingenuity of the left and today present themselves as champions of democracy and freedom will be hailing Marine Le Pen as the only one capable of guaranteeing order and social cohesion.

The big loser in the French elections was not the far-right. It is certain that, if it were not for the spurious agreements between the New Popular Front and the Macronists, the National Regroupment would have grown even more. But the result of the second round is not exactly a victory for the left.

After Marine Le Pen’s RN led the first round of elections, the NFP leaders fell into the trap of the French press and Emmanuel Macron, abandoning numerous candidacies of their own to increase the chances of the neoliberal right linked to the Renaissance party beating the far right .

The French big bourgeoisie called for a “republican front” to create a “cordon sanitaire” formed by the left and the neoliberal right in order to prevent an overwhelming victory for the RN, which led to agreements in around 220 electoral districts so that the candidate with a supposedly lower chance to defeat the RN would abandon the race in favor of the candidate with a greater chance. But most of the abandonments were from the NFP so that Macron’s allies could beat Le Pen’s allies, although the NFP came in second in the first round, far ahead of Macron’s coalition.

Far-right rivals were relieved with the results, as parliament is now fragmented and not dominated by the RN. But they missed the opportunity to bury the Macronist right, that is, the traditional neoliberal right, which in recent years has been paving the way for fascism by applying a policy increasingly similar to that defended by Le Pen.

In fact, the ruling right-wing coalition lost 82 seats in the National Assembly, compared to the last elections. It suffered a reduction in one third of its deputies. The Republicans, also from the traditional neoliberal right, lost a quarter of their legislators. The right wing of the Fifth Republic was the biggest defeat, without a doubt.

This means that their votes were split, with the majority obviously going to the far right. RN increased its bench by 38%. The other part of the votes went to the left. The NFP won 18% more seats than in the last elections. However, it was the right wing of the NFP that captured the majority of these votes.

While the number of deputies elected by France Unbowed practically did not change, the Socialist Party went from 30 to 59, doubling the number of seats in parliament. The PS, like all former European social democracy (German SPD, British Labor, Spanish PSOE), adhered to neoliberalism many decades ago. It is nothing more than a left wing of the Fifth Republic, that is, of the current French imperialist regime – just remember that the PS governed France when it invaded Mali, is anti-Russia and helps to sustain Zionism.

The other party on the right wing of the NFP that benefited in these elections was the Greens, which showed growth of 18%. Therefore, the conclusions based on the electoral results are the following: 1) the Macronist neoliberal right was the biggest loser, but it did not fall to rock bottom because 2) the left saved it, afraid of the far-right, although 3) within the left-wing forces, the great beneficiary has been neoliberal social democracy, which applies a “pink neoliberalism” that differs little from Macron 4) the far-right was merely contained and, as Le Pen said, his victory was only “postponed”.

Social tension will not be contained

The French imperialist big bourgeoisie manipulated the results of the elections with the main goal of containing the popular masses that have been sweeping the big cities with a growing revolt in recent years. An apparent victory for the left pleases a portion of these masses, who still believe that the PS and LFI will lead their country to social transformation.

A victory for the center-left, that is, for the traditional reformists who are now chosen by the bourgeoisie to administer France, also momentarily contains the rise of the far-right to power, which gives more time for negotiations between the different wings of the bourgeoisie.

All cities with more than 200,000 inhabitants voted overwhelmingly for NFP candidates. But in Marseille, the second largest city in the country, the traditional stage for the southern workers’ movement, the RN managed to win in half of the constituencies, which serves as a warning about the possible direction of a portion of the proletariat towards the far-right.

Because, in the countryside and in small towns, support for RN is already very visible. The French countryside is where the far-right’s large electoral base lives. And he has a strength that cannot be ignored. It was precisely small and medium-sized rural producers who generated a huge crisis throughout the European Union between the end of last year and the beginning of this year, parading their tractors through all the metropolises (and in 85% of French departments), as if remembering the government that they exist and can help to overthrow it and transform the country.

Just like the urban proletariat, the middle and lower classes in the countryside are also angry with neoliberal policies. Over the last 40 years, the State has handed over the entire duty of providing infrastructure to rural populations to the private sector. But the private sector does not invest in the field, because it does not see great returns. There are far fewer hospitals and clinics than necessary, for example. Only the State is fully capable of guaranteeing these services, but it has been absent in recent decades.

Young people in the countryside, like those in cities, are the most affected. They have less access to education and, therefore, less chance of being successful in the very competitive job market. In the last decade, the rate of young people without sufficient education, without employment and without completing an internship has been much higher in the countryside than in the cities and women in the countryside also get fewer jobs than men, compared to women in the cities. The woke ideology, proclaimed by both the Macron regime and the reformist left of the NFP, does not solve any of the problems of these women, who end up being attracted to the far-right.

One of the main pillars that support the capitalist regime is the alliance between the big bourgeoisie and the middle class, both in the city and in the countryside. And this pillar is gradually falling, as the quality of life and the economic and material conditions of the middle class have deteriorated sharply this century. The only alternative to improving the lives of the impoverished middle class is to ally with workers, who are also increasingly dissatisfied. Both classes have been attacking the French regime, but not in a unified way.

Who could unify these classes to fight the regime together, and thus inevitably overthrow it, would be the French left. The problem is that she is not interested in overthrowing the regime, but is happily part of it. And if she is part of the regime, she is its accomplice. Accomplice of a regime that exploits and oppresses the majority of the population. The far-right has been able to use this fact in its propaganda to attract the urban and rural middle classes and part of the disorganized proletariat, especially in smaller cities, where deindustrialization is very visible. But, as she has also demonstrated that she is part of this regime – by aligning herself with Macron on several occasions –, she still has great rejection among the popular classes, who have been radicalizing but lack political direction.

In any case, the far-right continues to grow. And, although the French bourgeoisie has not yet unified around the RN, the crisis of the traditional right is leading a significant part of this bourgeoisie to support it. The tendency in France is for the popular classes, driven by urban workers, to also come into conflict with social democracy and the left for whom they just voted, because if it forms or is part of the new government, it will inevitably continue the hated neoliberal policy. A social upheaval, which is increasingly likely, will threaten to sweep away the regime and this will mean that the part of the bourgeoisie that today believes that the left wing of its employees can save the regime will also start supporting the far-right as the only capable force to contain the workers’ revolt.

So, all those who were saved from the precipice by the ingenuity of the left and today present themselves as champions of democracy and freedom will be hailing Marine Le Pen as the only one capable of guaranteeing order and social cohesion.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/ ... al-regime/

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Sevim Dağdelen on the historic lies of NATO

Peoples Dispatch spoke to German MP Sevim Dağdelen, author of new book “NATO: A Reckoning with the Atlantic Alliance”

July 15, 2024 by Natalia Marques

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Sevim Dağdelen launches new book “NATO: A Reckoning with the Atlantic Alliance,” at the People's Forum (Photo via the People's Forum/X)

Last week, the United States hosted the 75th NATO Summit in Washington, DC. Although a prominent topic on the agenda was “defense and deterrence,” much of the Summit was spent pushing for more escalation, aggression, and militarism worldwide, especially in relation to the Russia-Ukraine War.

The alliance sent a shipment of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, pressuring member nations to increase defense spending, which has historically been at the expense of social spending, all the while hurling accusations at China for supposedly enabling the war in Ukraine.

To speak more about the influence of NATO in Europe, especially in member nation Germany, Peoples Dispatch spoke to Sevim Dağdelen, a member of the German Bundestag since 2005. In 2023, Dağdelen broke away from German left party Die Linke to form a new alliance with nine other members of parliament, the “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance: Reason and Justice” (BSW), which explicitly stands against sanctions against Russia and weapons shipments to Ukraine.

Dağdelen just authored a new book titled “NATO: A Reckoning with the Atlantic Alliance,” published by New Delhi-based LeftWord Books, which addresses the harm that the alliance has inflicted on the people of the world and the need for peace, not NATO.

Read the full interview below, which has been lightly edited for clarity:

Peoples Dispatch: Last month, people across Europe participated in the European Parliament elections. We saw the rise of the far right in these elections, largely. What do you think accounts for this?

Sevim Dağdelen: The most important message we got from the European Parliament election results was that the majority of the population of the European Union don’t trust the current governments, the establishment parties. We face a crisis. We have in many countries in the European Union, a majority [of people] against the ongoing war in Ukraine, and against the strategy of fueling this war with more and more weapons and more and more money. And on the other side, of course, [people face] social cuts and less money for the people in the countries.

That’s why people are getting more critical of the strategy of the governments. They would like to have more political engagement here, diplomacy, negotiations, rather than more weapons and more money for the war in Ukraine. And I think you can see this from the results of the European parliamentary elections as well.

PD: What is the impact of Europe’s allegiance to NATO, politically and militarily, on the people of Europe?

SD: We face a really deep crisis in the strategy of escalation of NATO, of their proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. As we have seen now at the Washington NATO summit, there are three main things at stake. One is the escalation, deepening the strategy of more weapons, more money for the war in Ukraine. Then the second is the NATO-ization of Asia. So besides the escalation against Russia in Ukraine, you have the expansion strategy against China. All the mistakes of the past that NATO has [made] towards Russia, in the enlargement and encircling of Russia, ignoring the security interests of Russia. They are now doing it against China, in having client states like the Indo-Pacific Four, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, but also adding these countries with challenger states against China, like the Philippines or Singapore. They are more in confrontation against a nuclear power, China.

Many people in Europe have the impression that the United States, as the leading country in NATO, would throw their allies, Europe, under the bus for their own interests, like they have, especially regarding the war in Ukraine. Because the United States wants to use their allies resources without using their own resources themselves for this war in Ukraine against Russia.

This has the risk of economic downfall of Europe. And that’s the reason, for example, that many people in Germany, 55%, are against the NATO membership of Ukraine.

PD: What has been the approach of the left in Germany in regard to NATO? And how has this changed after the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

SD: The labels right and left are a little bit irritating at the moment, in not only Germany, but in Europe.

Die Linke was my former party, which I left in October 2023. In January, I launched a new party with nine other members of Parliament: the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance for Reason and Justice. Our former party, Die Linke, is in favor, for example, of more sanctions against Russia.

And we, as the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, we reject economic sanctions, especially this economic warfare against Russia. The German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock once said in 2022 that the sanctions against Russia have the goal to ruin the economy of Russia. She wants to destroy the economy of Russia.

And as we can see, according to the forecast of the IMF, which is not a left radical or anti-imperialist institution, the economic growth of Russia is 3.2%. And in Germany, for example, 0.2%. That means the economy of Russia is growing, and the economy of Germany is shrinking, despite the war, sanctions, and the economic warfare of the European Union and United States against Russia.

And in that a left party is now in favor of sanctions and instead of being against the sanctions, is saying we need more sanctions against Russia, is for me not a left policy as is to be even partly in favor of weapon deliveries to Ukraine.

And we as the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are strictly against weapon deliveries. We are in favor of diplomacy, a politics of détente. We need a politics of disengagement in Europe and to stop the weapon deliveries. We need a ceasefire. We need peace negotiations in Ukraine to stop this killing on both sides and to stop, of course, the shrinking of our economy, which hits the working class people in Germany.

So that’s why the labeling of left and right is just irritating at the moment. So many on the left in Europe have lost their track [by not] being against weapon deliveries, being against wars, being against sanctions.

Sanctions are nothing less than weapons of mass destruction. It’s always the population which gets affected in the suffering by economic sanctions, like we’ve seen in Cuba for decades. We see it in Syria, in Venezuela.

PD: What can people of conscience across the world do to combat NATO and NATO policies which serve to spread violence?

SD: The most important thing is to know what NATO is. That’s why I wrote this book, because it was important to me to show that 75 years of NATO is 75 years of denial, 75 years of propaganda, of lies.

It’s not a defense alliance. 25 years ago, NATO started their aggression against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. They attacked Libya in 2011. They attacked for 20 years in Afghanistan with so many civilian casualties, so many war crimes. The leading nation of NATO, the US, attacked Iraq. According to Brown University, more than 4.5 million people have been killed in this war led by the US and their allies.

The idea that NATO would be an alliance of democracies is also a historic lie. Just one example, one founding member of NATO was Portugal under the fascist dictatorship of Salazar. Salazar tortured Africans in the colonies and in concentration camps in Mozambique, in Angola, in the colonial wars. So NATO had no problem at all with fascist dictatorships like Salazar’s Portugal or Franco’s Spain, or with military coups in 1967 in Greece and 1980 with Turkey.

The third myth of NATO is that they are an alliance for human rights. Until today, [the US] has their torture camp in Guantanamo Bay where people get tortured without a fair trial. [There is also the example of] 14 years of political persecution of the journalist Julian Assange, whose crime was only to show the world the war crimes of the US in Iraq and the war crimes of NATO states in Afghanistan. Long before war, truth is knocked unconscious, and we have the task to get truth on its feet again.

Especially for people like me in the Global North, it is important to have solidarity, to work together, to coordinate our forces, our strength, our energy with the people of the Global South.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2024/07/15/ ... s-of-nato/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Fri Jul 19, 2024 2:50 pm

EU elections: austerity and genocide supporting warmongering parties routed

Why have the recent EU elections cast the ruling elites of Europe into a state of panic?


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In country after country, and most especially in the imperial core countries of France and Germany, the recent EU election results revealed deep anger at all the parties of the Euro-Atlanticist establishment, indelibly associated as they are with the deepening of austerity and the drive to war.

Harpal Brar

Wednesday 17 July 2024

Elections to the European parliament across the 27 countries of the European Union took place between 6-9 June. The results of these elections are as below (grouped by EU parliamentary bloc):

EPP (European People’s Party); 188 seats won; 25.1 percent
ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists); 83 seats won; 11.53 percent
Renew Europe; 75 seats won; 10.48 percent
S&D (Alliance of Socialists and Democrats); 136 seats won; 18.89 percent
The Left; 39 seats won; 5.42 percent
NI (Not attached); 45 seats won; 6.25 percent
ID (Identity and Democracy); 58 seats won; 8.5 percent
Others; 42 seats won; 5.83 percent
The overall voter turnout across the EU was 51.07 percent, ranging from 89.82 percent in Belgium to 21.35 percent in Croatia.

Although the EU elections are not taken generally very seriously, nevertheless, owing to widespread lack of trust in the ruling parties of various EU countries, the latest elections became a referendum on the performance of their governments and an opportunity for voters to express their anger at those governments’ internal and external policies.

As is clear from the above results, although the EPP – a centre-right grouping – emerged as the largest bloc, it failed to secure an absolute majority in the 720-seat parliament. There was a marked shift away from the established parties and groupings. The Liberals in France and the Greens in Germany were delivered the hardest blows.

Panic in France
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in France won 31.5 percent of the French vote, while Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance took a mere 14.6 percent – less than half of the National Rally’s total. In Germany, Olaf Schulz’s Social Democratic party (SPD) was pushed into third place, behind the AfD (Alternative for Germany).

In France, the voters, fed up with President Macron over a range of policies ranging from his unashamed anti-working class internal policy to his support for the Israeli genocide of the Palestinian people and for Nato’s predatory war against Russia, deserted his party for the camps of the National Rally on the right and parties on the left of centre.

Macron was shocked rigid by the outcome of the election, to such an extent that, in a state of utter panic, he dissolved the national assembly and on 8 June called new elections, to be held on 30 June and 1 July. At the time of writing, all the indications were that Macron’s party would be thoroughly trounced and that the one single biggest winner would be Le Pen’s RN.

If that were to happen, the RN would form France’s next government and Macron would be forced to work with an RN prime minister – probably Jordan Bardella, the party’s rising star. Already in the 2022 election, Macron’s party had failed to gain an absolute majority in the national assembly. This time will be worse for him.

Blows delivered across Europe to prowar establishment parties
The referendum that was the European parliament election produced catastrophic results for ruling circles across Europe, and most especially in France and Germany – the two leading powers of the EU.

Meanwhile, the right-wing Freedom party in Austria won 25 percent of the votes and the Dutch Party for Freedom secured 17 percent, while the AfD in Germany, with 16 percent of the vote, came second – ahead of Scholz’s SPD.

In Belgium, prime minister Alexander De Croo resigned immediately after the defeat of his Flemish Liberals and Democrats party, which trailed behind the Flemish nationalist Vlaams Belang party,

If the right-wing parties were to join together, they would constitute the second-largest group in the EU parliament, especially if Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy were to join them – although one can never be sure which way Meloni will jump.

These election results, having gutted the centre right and centre left alike, are bad news for the ruling powers. Their flunkeys in the bourgeois media are already moaning that the prospects for a ‘resilient democracy’, which ‘needs a strong centre’, have been eroded by these catastrophic results.

Much nonsense is being spread by the political and ideological representatives of the powers that be about the dangers of the ‘far right’ and ‘far left’ coming close to the levers of government. These labels have become meaningless. While those who are against the ceaseless wars waged by Nato and against austerity at home are being vilified daily and hourly, the real warmongers and supporters of austerity, such as the greens and social democrats, are much lauded for their ‘moderation’ and ‘democratic’ credentials.

The truth is that it is the greens and social democrats who should have the ignominy of being characterised as fascistic genocidaires and inveterate enemies of the working class and oppressed peoples.

Ursula von der Leyen, who secured her appointment as president of the European Commission for a second term, put a brave face on the election results and stated that her party would “build a bastion against extremes”. If that is so, it would be the first time that an established politician would be leading a crusade against her own party, which is the epitome of extremism in internal and external policy.

These are very exciting times to be living in. The bourgeois camp is in a state of panic and disintegration. It is time for the working class to get its act together to obstruct and defeat the bourgeois policy of repression at home and war abroad.

To paraphrase a great revolutionary: there is chaos under heaven, the situation is wonderful!

https://thecommunists.org/2024/07/17/ne ... es-routed/

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British Meddling in Macedonia Backfires, Exposing Coup Machinations
JULY 17, 2024

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The United Kingdom's King Charles III (Left) and Charles Garrett (Right). Photo: Grayzone.

By Kit Klarenberg – Jun 14, 2024

Charles Garrett, an apparent British intel agent, teamed up with a local prosecutor to wrongfully indict Macedonian public figures and topple the country’s government. Everywhere Garrett goes in the region, coups seem to follow.

Western media demonstrated little interest when the anti-Western VMRO-DPMNE party achieved a landslide victory in Macedonia’s presidential and parliamentary elections this May 8. However, the seismic development could reverse a foreign-orchestrated color revolution sparked almost a decade ago, which put the government in Skopje on a path guided by the EU and NATO. Getting there required rampant corruption and criminality, and a locally despised change of the country’s name.

British meddling figured centrally in that regime change operation, with an apparent MI6 operative named Charles Garrett stirring up trouble on the ground while coordinating with opposition actors. Garrett enjoyed an evidently intimate bond with a crooked, high-profile local prosecutor who used illegally-obtained and heavily tainted wiretap evidence to wrongfully indict and blackmail scores of Macedonian public figures. Garrett appears to have been in a position to improperly profit from this relationship.

As The Grayzone has documented, London operates a dedicated program known as “Global Britain” in the West Balkans. Leaked documents related to the effort reveal it is concerned with insidiously influencing the composition of local governments and legal and regulatory environments to advance British interests, while filling regional institutions, including the military-intelligence apparatus, with handpicked assets. According to one leaked file, MI6 does not tolerate regional opposition to its agenda, and readily deploys active measures to neutralize local resistance:

“In contexts where elite incentives are not aligned with [Britain’s] objectives/values… an approach that seeks to hold elite politicians to account might be needed… We can build relationships and alliances with those who share our objectives and values for reform… It is critical that the media have the capacity and freedom to hold political actors to account.”

What transpired in Macedonia over the past decade offers a stark example of what happens to governments in the Balkans who do not share Britain’s professed values, and how they are “held to account.” So too does a 2020 coup in Kyrgyzstan, where Garrett set up shop next after leaving Skopje. Central Asia is now in the crosshairs of London’s endless quest for regime change.

‘Bombs’ unseat elected government for NATO
NATO’s efforts to expand in the former Yugoslavia became turbocharged after Russia’s March 2014 reunification with Crimea. The Grayzone documented how alliance membership was imposed on Montenegro in 2016 despite near-universal public opposition. Achieving this feat required support for a corrupt, savage pro-Western dictator in power for almost two decades, and an elaborate connivance whereby anti-NATO opposition actors were jailed on spurious charges of colluding with Russian intelligence to overthrow the government, based on bogus CIA and MI6-supplied evidence.

Similar subterfuge played out in Skopje, which signed a “Membership Action Plan” with NATO in 1999. While slightly more supportive of NATO membership than Montenegrins, the local population near-unanimously opposed changing the country’s name, which Greece, the EU and US demanded as a prerequisite for joining. The VMRO government, led by hardline nationalist Nikola Gruevski, pledged Macedonia would always be called Macedonia. So a Western-orchestrated coup was put into motion.

In February 2015, opposition party SDSM’s leader Zoran Zaev began regularly dropping what he and the media branded “bombs,” but which were, in fact, damaging wiretaps of private conversations between prominent Macedonian figures. The tapes seemingly implicated Gruevski and his ministers in serious crimes, including murder. Zaev claimed whistleblowers passed him the illegally-captured recordings. The premier countered that the releases were supplied by foreign intelligence services, with the objective of forcing an early election.

Years later, independent investigations revealed SDSM deceptively edited and spliced these leaked recordings to distort their contents and falsely incriminate government officials. For example, they edited one “bomb” to make it sound as though top VMRO officials conspired to cover up the 2011 murder of a young Macedonian in Skopje by a senior police officer. The unexpurgated tape indicated VRMO leadership was in fact shocked by the killing, and wanted the culprit to be severely punished.

Upon release, Zaev’s heavily manipulated “bombs” sparked widespread outcry in Macedonia, prompting hundreds of thousands of citizens to take to the streets against the VMRO. Openly called the “colourful revolution” by participating citizens and NGOs, the EU and US duly stepped in and brokered the Przino Agreement, under which Gruevski resigned, and new elections were held.

SDSM scraped into office via a fragile coalition, then set about laying the foundations of Macedonia’s name change in explicit service of NATO membership, with tens of millions of dollars in assistance from intelligence cutout USAID, and anti-communist billionaire George Soros. Parliamentarians were blackmailed, often by using the illegal wiretap intercepts, and bribed into passing unconstitutional and highly controversial reforms. This enabled the rebranding of Skopje as “North Macedonia” despite a near-total lack of public support, or even the President’s sign-off. Western forces also imposed sham referendum, which was boycotted by most citizens.

At last, North Macedonia was formally inducted into NATO in March 2020. And the Alliance has no intention of stopping there. Officials have since repeatedly made clear they consider the accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to be all but inevitable. This is despite 98% of Bosnian Serbs opposing membership, due to NATO’s central role in the criminal destruction of Yugoslavia during the 1990s. There are covert British efforts to promote NATO in Serbia too, where over 80% of the population opposes joining.

Veteran British agent arrives in Macedonia, wreaks political havoc
In August 2013, Charles Garrett received an appointment as London’s ambassador to Macedonia. His express brief was to help the country “achieve its goals of joining NATO and the EU.” Knowledgeable local sources have informed The Grayzone that he was instrumental in the “colourful revolution,” distributing cash to NGOs and activists involved in the unrest from his diplomatic pouch, while attempting to get government supporters on board.

Garrett’s bio contains all the trappings of a lifetime MI6 officer. His lengthy career in London’s diplomatic service includes spells in Cyprus, Hong Kong, Switzerland and Taiwan, all key nuclei of intelligence gathering and cloak-and-dagger action for Britain’s foreign spying agency. He was also posted to the Balkans in the latter half of the 1990s, when the region became a veritable MI6 playground.

Under the Przino Agreement, a Special Prosecutor’s Office (SPO) was created to investigate officials over serious crimes supposedly revealed by the illegal intercepts. A previously unknown prosecutor from a small Macedonian border town, Katica Janeva, was selected to run the Office. While the SPO was supposed to pursue legal action against SDSM activists – including Zaev, for releasing the intercepts – the prosecutions never materialized. Meanwhile, any and all Western officials visiting Macedonia made sure to visit SPO headquarters and get snapped with Janeva. Garrett was, of course, among them.

Initially, Western journalists treated Janeva to multiple fawning profiles. The British press was particularly smitten, with the Financial Times referring to her as Macedonia’s “Beyonce.” The BBC dubbed the Special Prosecutor and her two primary assistants “Charlie’s Angels,” claiming the trio were “the scourge of Macedonia’s political elite and heroines of the street protests now rocking the tiny Balkan nation.” A lengthy USAID-funded “documentary” featured her staff mocking their targets by phone while discussing whom to jail next.

That broadcast has since been removed from the web, and virtually no trace of its existence can be found online today. This may be because in June 2020, Janeva was jailed for seven years for corruption. Her crime-fighting crusade was from the very beginning an obscene, partisan fraud. Along the way, the Special Prosecutor secretly enriched herself through a variety of unscrupulous, criminal means. The SPO’s true objective was destabilizing the VMRO government, and discrediting its supporters by association.



Janeva’s targets were often indicted on ludicrous charges. For example, at one stage Prime Minister Gruevski was accused of “abuse of office” for commissioning the construction of two “Chinese highways”. Prosecutors charged he had improperly benefitted from the deal – not financially, but because he would “receive a popularity boost” if the highways were completed on schedule. Elsewhere, a pro-VMRO female journalist was charged with tax fraud for writing off laundry as a business expense, and resultantly subjected to much misogynistic mockery in SDSM-affiliated media.

More gravely, the owner of an independent news site committed suicide after being pressured to turn state witness by the SPO, following early morning police raids targeting him and his family. Cases brought against the owners of government-supporting TV stations Sitel and Nova shifted their editorial line in favor of SDSM, and led to the latter being closed outright. In its place, an eccentric Macedonian media personality named Bojan Jovanovski, nicknamed Boki 13, launched the rabidly pro-SDSM 1TV.

Publicly, Boki 13 used his station to relentlessly promote the SDSM-led government and the SPO’s work, with Janeva a frequent guest on its assorted “factual” and entertainment programs. In private, he would extort wealthy businesspeople indicted by Janeva, promising to make their legal troubles go away in return for lavish advertising buys on 1TV, or sizable donations to his “charity,” International Association. None other than Charles Garrett sat on its board.

Coups follow Garrett wherever he goes
In 2019, by the time these facts became public knowledge, and Janeva and Boki 13 were in prison, Garrett had been safely extracted from Skopje, having been appointed British ambassador to Kyrgyzstan. Almost immediately, a revolution erupted in Bishkek. Mass demonstrations, ignited by reports of vote rigging in the October 2020 parliamentary election, culminated with the military storming President Sooronbay Jeenbekov’s compound and removing him – physically – from office.

In February 2022, a Kyrgyzstan government-affiliated newspaper openly accused Garrett of operating a “fifth column” in Bishkek. It alleged that in the leadup to the 2020 vote, he along with US State Department representatives met with local journalists and bloggers, offering them enormous sums to identify electoral violations – such as vote rigging – and document official pressure on media outlets and civil society groups. Garrett purportedly promised them top-of-the-range broadcasting equipment, to increase their audience reach. Not long after publication, he returned to London.

Garrett has kept a low profile ever since, and now occupies a cushy role overseeing the Commonwealth War Graves Commission. Nonetheless, in September 2023, he submitted written evidence to a British parliamentary committee investigating London’s “engagement in Central Asia.” He advocated an array of tactics to exploit “disruption caused by Moscow’s renewed invasion of Ukraine” in 0rder to undermine the region’s historic, economic and political ties with Russia and China.

When Foreign Secretary David Cameron conducted a heavily publicized tour of Central Asia in May 2024, he followed Garrett’s proposals to the letter. The ambassador’s legacy visibly endures in Macedonia today too. In March 2016, colorful revolution protesters attempted to burn down the President’s office, after 56 individuals indicted by the SPO were pardoned. The premises were transformed into the headquarters of UK Aid, a now-defunct British government agency intimately implicated in the neoliberal pillaging of Ukraine.

This role included running covert communications campaigns on Kiev’s behalf to promote the destruction of workers’ rights locally. It is likely the organization was engaged in similar skullduggery in Skopje, after Garrett rode into town. VMRO’s return to government at last offers Macedonian citizens an opportunity to halt the operations of all US and British intelligence fronts and cutouts operating on their soil, and reclaim foreign-conquered territory.

(Grayzone)

https://orinocotribune.com/british-medd ... hinations/

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The EU’s Planned Transformation Into A Military Union Is A Federalist Power Play

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUL 19, 2024

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Upon surrendering sovereignty over military policymaking, which some EU members have proudly protected up until now, every other aspect of federalization would quickly fall into place shortly afterwards and entrench German hegemony.

Newly reappointed European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen just announced that “it is now time to build a veritable union of defense”, which Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said represents a marked change in priorities that’ll intersect with NATO’s interests. The EU’s planned transformation into a military union is being sold to the public as a response to the protracted Ukrainian Conflict, but it’s really a federalist power play that’s designed to forever entrench German hegemony over the bloc.

That country has sought to federalize the EU for years already, and despite some notable successes in getting member states to surrender significant parts of their sovereignty to Brussels, it’s thus far failed to yield the expected results. This plan might also become more difficult to implement as two new groups have emerged in the European Parliament since the latest elections: the AfD-led “Europe of Sovereign Nations” and the Hungarian-led “Patriots for Europe”, both of which are fiercely against federalization.

The only possible way to push through this agenda in the face of such growing opposition is to double down on anti-Russian fearmongering in the hopes that member states’ ruling liberal-globalist elites will agree to federalize under the pretext of defending against a supposedly impending invasion. It’s not directly stated, but the subtext is that NATO’s American leader couldn’t be relied upon to defend its allies in that event despite repeatedly reaffirming its commitment to Article 5’s mutual defense obligations.

The abovementioned fears can’t be voiced aloud since the prior expression of such concerns was earlier smeared by the Mainstream Media as so-called “Russian propaganda”, but they might become more strongly implied as the US’ upcoming presidential elections approach. Trump’s reported plan for NATO, which readers can learn more about in detail here, calls for coercing members into raising their defense spending and assuming more responsibility for their immediate security interests vis-à-vis Russia.

The preceding hyperlinked analysis argues that it’s already being partially implemented by the Biden Administration as proven by Germany’s “Fortress Europe” concept, which amounts to it becoming the continent’s military powerhouse with full US support so as to facilitate America’s “Pivot (back) to Asia”. Late January’s “military Schengen”, last month’s “EU defense line”, and this month’s agreement to assume partial responsibility for Poland’s border security are the most significant developments thus far.

The next step is to consolidate Germany’s military-strategic gains over the past half-year through von der Leyen’s call for a military union, which would see German-controlled Brussels organizing the bloc’s military-industrial needs across its 27 members, thus moving them closer to de facto federalization. Upon surrendering sovereignty over military policymaking, which some of them have proudly protected up until now, every other aspect of federalization would quickly fall into place shortly afterwards.

That’s why it’s incumbent on the European Parliament’s two newly formed conservative-nationalist groups to do their utmost within that body and inside their members’ home countries to prevent their ruling liberal-globalist elites from going along with von der Leyen’s military union plans. Their countries’ futures are on the line and they’ll either retain some of their sovereignty, however imperfect and partial it presently is, or lose it all and end up as a nondescript state in a German-led European Federation.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-eus- ... ation-into

Why’d Poland Rebuff Belarus’ Proposal To Resolve Their Border Problems?

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUL 19, 2024

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Poland is sacrificing its national interests in pursuit of what its leadership considers to be the “greater good” of the US-led West as a whole.

Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhenkov revealed earlier this week that Poland rebuffed his country’s proposal to resolve their border problems, which followed President Aleksandr Lukashenko declaring earlier in the month that he won’t order the border service to protect the EU from migrants. According to the Belarusian leader, it was the West that scrapped cooperation with his country, not the inverse. Here are five relevant news items about these official statements for the reader’s interest:

* 2 July: “Lukashenko: I will not order the border service to protect the European Union from migrants”

* 15 July: “Belarus’ FM: Poland’s border measures are hectic, patternless”

* 15 July: “FM: Belarus invites Poland to study the situation on the border together”

* 15 July: “FM: Belarus is ready to discuss border situation, Poland has no interest in solving the issue”

* 16 July: “Belarus’ proposals to settle issues with Poland, Lithuania left unanswered”

It’s worthwhile pointing out that Belarus’ proposal called for Poland “to send to Belarus any Polish delegation, any Polish experts, specialists, representatives of the country’s authorities” to jointly investigate alleged migrant training camps and corrupt law enforcement officers. Poland’s refusal led to Belarus suspecting that Warsaw actually intends to exploit the situation in order to build a new Iron Curtain. This aligns with the insight that was shared over the past few months in these five analyses:

* 13 May: “Poland’s Border Fortification Buildup Has Nothing To Do With Legitimate Threat Perceptions”

* 2 June: “Poland Can Defend Itself From Invading Illegal Immigrants Without Worsening Tensions With Russia”

* 28 June: “The ‘EU Defense Line’ Is The Latest Euphemism For The New Iron Curtain”

* 5 July: “Germany Is Preparing To Assume Partial Responsibility For Poland’s Eastern Border Security”

* 11 July: “Belarusian Media Made A Good Point About Why Poland Shouldn’t Close The Border”

Belarus is at the very least turning a blind eye towards civilizationally dissimilar migrants illegally crossing the border with Poland as revenge for Warsaw’s support of summer 2020’s failed Color Revolution and continued hosting of anti-government militants. It might even be doing more than that according to Western media reports, however, which is why it’s odd that Poland declined to send any of its representatives to Belarus in order to investigate.

The Poles might have thought that they’d be taken on a “Potemkin tour” and that everything would be cleaned up before they got there since their itinerary would have to be agreed upon in advance, though there are also sensitive political dimensions to this that evade most observers’ attention. Any agreement to carry out joint work with Belarus in any capacity would lend legitimacy to its national authorities who Warsaw has considered to be “illegitimate” since summer 2020’s elections.

Seeing as how Poland has presented itself as NATO’s vanguard state against Russia (and its Union State partner of Belarus by extension), this would represent a noticeable break in Western unity driven by national interests, which could demoralize the West and also possibly risk a domino effect. Even if Poland went through with it and the consequences were manageable, no solution would likely be achieved until Warsaw recognizes Lukashenko’s re-election and stops hosting anti-government militants.

The Polish elite have no interest in complying with these implied demands even though they’re required to resolve the illegal immigrant crisis, hence why Belarus is right to suspect that it has ulterior motives in rebuffing the latest cooperation proposal in order to build a new Iron Curtain. Ultimately, Poland is sacrificing its national interests in pursuit of what its leadership considers to be the “greater good” of the US-led West as a whole, which reflects very poorly on its policymakers’ wisdom.

To be sure, these same policymakers believe that their national interests are indeed aligned with the US-led West’s in terms of retaining a united front against Russia and Belarus, but that’s arguably a misguided perception that’s responsible for subordinating Poland to Germany as explained here. The problem is that there isn’t any truly patriotic force with policymaking influence at the national level which prioritizes the pursuit of Polish interests over perceived collective ones even at the latter’s possible expense.

Until that changes, and there’s no telling when or even if that’ll even happen, the illegal immigrant crisis will continue since Belarus has no other means of asymmetrically responding to Poland’s failed Color Revolution attempt four years ago and continued hosting of anti-government militants. That’s not even to mention Poland’s unprecedented military buildup, which includes hosting more NATO forces than ever before, all of which has worsened their security dilemma and toxified ties between them.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/whyd-pol ... s-proposal

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Looking Ahead, But Not Forward, to Five More Years of “Queen” Ursula von der Leyen
Posted on July 19, 2024 by Nick Corbishley

After five years of overseeing creeping digital censorship, corruption, economic decline, war and institutional support for genocide, Von der Leyen has been given five more years to do more of the same, or worse.

In late October, I posited that the walls may finally be closing in on EU President Ursula von der Leyen. The lawsuits and investigations against the Pfizergate scandal were piling up and hundreds of EU officials had publicly denounced her one-sided support for Israel as the IDF began the task of ethnically cleansing roughly 2.1 million Gazan citizens. As Politico EUROPE reported, in doing so, she had breached her mandate as EU Commission president, leaving EU capitals “fum[ing]” at “Queen” Ursula’s go-it alone approach to EU foreign policy.

At the time, Von der Leyen (or VDL, as I shall henceforth refer to her) had not yet announced her attention to stand for reelection. It seemed, at least to this humble blogger’s eyes, that her unabashed support for Israel’s blatant war crimes in the early months of its invasion of Gaza would end up proving to be the final straw for her scandal-tarnished presidency.

As I noted in that piece, even if VDL did lose her job or was prevented from standing for a second term, her rare talent for failing upwards would ensure that she would land a new one that was at least as good, if not better — such as, say, NATO chief.

I was wrong on both counts. The top job at NATO HQ has been handed to Dutch premier Mark Rutte. And not only did VdL not lose her job as EU Commission president, she just got reelected — with a much larger margin than first time round. Which goes to show that a history of blatant corruption, total disregard for basic procedure and whole-hearted support of war crimes, including genocide, are not diqualifiers for the top political job in the European Union.

After five years of overseeing creeping digital censorship, corruption, economic decline, war and support for genocide, VdL has been given five more years to do more of the same, or worse. In total, 401 of the European Parliament’s 720 MEPs voted for VdL to stay on as chair of the European Commission in yesterday’s vote, giving VdL a bigger winning margin than during her first confirmation in 2019. According to Politico EUROP, after hearing the result, VdL “smiled, stood up and patted her hand against her [my insertion: cold, cold] heart.”


So, how did VdL pull this off?

For a start, she was able to count on most of the members of the three mainstream political groups that won a majority of the seats in the European elections last month and supported her in 2019 – her own centre-right European People’s party (188 seats), the Socialists (136), and the liberals of Renew (77). Given the vote for Commission president is secret, it’s impossible to know how many members of these three groupings turned out for VDL. But given the size of her majority, it is safe to assume that most did.

To hedge her bets, VdL also launched a charm offensive with Georgia Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which has 78 seats in parliament, and the European Greens (53 seats). While ECR chose to let their 78 members vote freely, the European Greens, reassured by VdL’s apparent renewed commitment to the EU’s climate agenda and her pledge not to work with the far-right Identity and Democracy group, whose members include Italy’s Lega party and the National Rally in France, lent their full support behind her candidacy.

“As part of a 4-party majority, we’ll uphold the EU Green Deal, work on a social Europe for all & protect fundamental rights & the rule of law,” the Greens group said. “The cordon sanitaire against the far-right holds.”

VdL also promised the European Parliament’s pseudo-socialist block that her new Commission will prioritise affordable housing by, among other things, creating a dedicated housing commissioner and revising state aid rules to make it easier for member countries to build homes. In other words, she spread herself as far, wide and thinly as possible, “promising something to everyone,” writes Alberto Alemano in his Guardian article, “Ursula von der Leyen Has Lost Europe’s Trust. She Doesn’t Deserve a Second Term”:

[A]ll these groups, including those within her majority, have in the meantime formulated a range of demands that are difficult to reconcile. The Greens want a strong commitment on environmental policies, the EPP want her to revoke the EU’s 2035 ban on internal combustion engine-powered cars, the liberals want to cut red tape and Meloni wants more restrictive migration management.

As a result, von der Leyen has been spreading herself too thinly, promising something to everyone but not fully satisfying anyone. This political ambivalence is deliberate and tactical, but it may have damaged her support in the parliament and compromised her chances of re-election.


That didn’t happen. On the contrary, VdL secured a much more comfortable majority than last time. Of course, if the Commission President was actually elected by politically engaged, well-informed EU citizens — as opposed to being selected for the role by national EU leaders after weeks of backroom horse-trading and then presented to the European Parliament to seal the deal — VdL wouldn’t have a hope in hell of reelection, but that’s not how the EU works.

But what does her reelection bode for the EU’s roughly 450 million citizens? Put simply, lots more bad things. Here are a few suggestions (this is not an exhaustive list by any means; readers are invited to chip in suggestions):*

More Corruption and Opacity

Two of the most important characteristics of VdL’s first term as Commission president were corruption and opacity. As NC newcomer George Georgiou, documented in his recent article, “Ursula Von der Leyen: Beyond Redemption“, during her political career VdL has faced allegations of plagiarism in her doctoral thesis, conflicts of interest (as both German Defence Minister and EU Commission President), destroying evidence (ditto), inflation of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine contract, worth up to €36 billion, and nepotism.

Judging by VdL’s comfortable reelection, most MEPs are not worried about this or the fact that VDL is currently under criminal investigation, presumably because: a) they themselves are on one of the biggest gravy trains ever created; and b) despite their high salaries and expense accounts, some are also lining their pockets with bribes and kickbacks.

As readers may recall, in 2022 a number of MEPs were arrested in the Qatargate affair, the EU’s biggest graft scandal in decades. In late 2023, the Financial Times reported that “one year on, the… affair is bogged down in legal counter-probes that have called into question the Belgian authorities’ management of the case and delayed any potential trial.”

Much the same could be said of the European Public Prosecutor Office’s criminal investigation into the VdL Commission’s alleged misdeeds in the Pfizergate scandal, which also appears to have been led down a culdesac.

Just one day before the vote on VdL’s reelection, the European Court of Justice ruled that the European Commission had not been transparent enough regarding the vaccine contracts. A group of MEPs suggested postponing yesterday’s vote until September in order to digest the implications of the ruling but an overwhelming majority of MEPs rejected the proposal. As Politico EUROPE notes, other cases pertaining to the Pfizer contracts and communication between von der Leyen and Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla are pending in different EU jurisdictions.

More War and Even Less Jaw-Jaw

Few people in Brussels have done more to promote the constant escalation of tensions with Russia than Von der Leyen. It is her Commission, with input from EU Member governments, that designed the 14 largely self-harming sanction packages against the Russian economy. As mentioned earlier, she was also instrumental in setting the direction and tone of the EU’s response — or rather, non-response — to the atrocities committed by Israel in Gaza. Put simply, five more years of VdL will mean more war and even less jaw-jaw.

In its appointment of Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as the EU’s chief diplomat, the Commission appears to have selected someone even less diplomatic and even more hostile to Russia than Josep “the rest of the world is a jungle” Borrell. Kallas infamously said that the ultimate objective of war in Ukraine should be to break Russia up into lots of small countries. As tends to happen with many Commission appointments, Kallas is fresh from a scandal at home, this one revolving around her husband’s business ties to Russia — so, yes, more hypocrisy as well.

Tellingly, the first act of this new European Parliament was to condemn Viktor Orban’s diplomatic visit to Russia as a “blatant violation of the EU’s Treaties and common foreign policy.” It also unanimously passed a resolution that provided a commitment by the Parliament to maintain its support for Ukraine. Another indication of

VdL is also proposing to launch the long-awaited European Defence Union to deal with cross-border threats over the next five years, starting with a “European Air Shield and cyber defence”. In a document setting out her programme ahead of the EP vote on Thursday, she said:

“We will ensure that these major projects are open to all and we will use all of the tools at our disposal – both regulatory and financial – to ensure they are designed, built and deployed on European soil as quickly as possible.”

This prompted a warning from the Kremlin that the EU seems determined to set off a spiral of escalation. From Al Jazeera:

“[The plans] confirm the general attitude of European states to militarisation, escalation of tension, confrontation and reliance on confrontational methods in their foreign policy,” said [Kremlin spokesman Dmitry] Peskov.

“Everything is quite obvious here.”

The Kremlin spokesman added that while Russia did not pose a threat to the EU, actions by its member states regarding Ukraine “have excluded any possibility of dialogue and consideration of Russia’s concerns”.

“These are the realities in which we have to live, and this forces us to configure our foreign policy approaches accordingly,” Peskov said.


In recent weeks, NATO, of which the EU is a key member, has broadened the focus of its sabre-rattling to China, threatening the Asian superpower of being a “decisive enabler” of Russia through its “large-scale support for Russia’s defence industrial base”. If Brussels is stupid enough to begin targeting China, the EU’s biggest trading partner, with sanctions, there’s no telling just how much further its economy can fall.

More EU “Vassalization” to US (Depends on who is in Washington)

So far, the EU’s constant escalation of tensions with Moscow over Ukraine has achieved little bar prolonging the destruction of Ukraine, dynamiting the EU’s own economic prospects while placing the bloc more and more firmly under Washington’s thumb. On this point, it’s worth re-visiting the introductory paragraph of an article written last year (for Compact magazine) by Thomas Fazi :

For decades, the European Union was regarded as an emerging counterweight to US geopolitical hegemony that would accord its member states greater autonomy from the superpower across the Atlantic. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has revealed the emptiness of this promise. Today, Europe’s “vassalization” (in the words of an analyst for the European Council on Foreign Relations) is arguably more pronounced than at any time since the middle of the 20th century. On geopolitical questions, as the current war has made clear, Brussels has no meaningful independence from Washington. In the economic sphere, Europe’s relative decline and growing dependency on America—which predate the Ukraine conflict but have been exacerbated by it—are if anything even more evident.

Previously dubbed by Politico EUROPE as “Europe’s American President,” Von der Leyen, with her ancestral ties to US slave traders/owners, most notably the former plantation owner James Ladson, would presumably like nothing more than to continue this vassalization process during her second term. However, much will depend on the approach taken by the next US government. If, as expected, Donald J Trump wins November’s elections, he is likely, though not certain, to take a different tack to the Ukraine conflict, NATO and broader US-EU relations.

More Digital Censorship and Control

In VdL’s first term as Commission President, the EU made significant strides in the digital arena. The EU’s “Green Pass” vaccine passport system, which coincidentally shared the same name as Israel’s vaccine certificate system and which had been in the works since 2018, helped to ensure there was healthy demand for the COVID-19 vaccines, at least in the first year of their roll out. The EU’s “Green Pass” will apparently be used by the World Health Organization as a template for its proposed global digital health certificate.

Then, of course, there was the highly controversial Digital Services Act (DSA), which is already being used to stifle the free exchange of information on social media platforms, not just in Europe but across the world. In one of the most Orwellian statements of recent times, for which the bar has been set vertiginously high, Thierry Breton, the European Commission for the Internal Market, said the actual purpose of the DSA is to “protect free speech against arbitrary decisions.”

The Associated Press described the act as cementing the EU’s position as “a global leader in reining in Big Tech.” Less than two months after becoming operational, the DSA was already being put to use to smother the spread of (in the Commission’s words) “incorrect, incomplete, or misleading” information about the war in the Middle East.

A week ago, the Commission warned Elon Musk’s X platform, formerly known as Twitter, that its blue checkmarks verification system is deceptive and that it falls short on transparency and accountability requirements (oh, the irony). It is accused the platform of not giving the EU’s army of fact-checking researchers sufficient access to public data. The Commission is also looking into whether the platform is doing enough to curb the spread of illegal content — such as hate speech — and the efficacy of its measures to combat “information manipulation.”

In late March, unbeknown to most EU citizens, digital identity became a legal reality across the 27-nation bloc after the Parliament and the EU Council of Ministers gave their final approval to the European Commission’s Digital Identity Regulation. The regulation obliges all member states to make a digital identity wallet available to every citizen who wants one. That is how the new system is currently being marketed — as an optional extra for citizens who want to avail of its many benefits.

The Digital Identity Wallet, the Commission says, will be used on a strictly voluntary basis, and “no one can be discriminated against for not using the wallet.” But as we reported in April, Greece’s national government has already announced that possession of the digital ID wallet will soon be necessary to access all sports stadiums.

As with the digital vaccine certificate, the goal will be to achieve as broad an uptake in as short a time as possible. As such, in the coming months one can expect to see more and more initiatives from national governments requiring the use of a digital ID wallet. In Spain, for example, the government is working on an initiative to require Internet users to download a digital ID wallet to verify that they are of adult age in order to access porn websites.

As with all such initiatives, mission creep is all but guaranteed: Spain’s Ministry of Digital Transformation is already talking of requiring a similar digital identity wallet to access other online platforms, including messaging applications, social networks or browsers.

Lastly, one thing to look out for in the next five years of Queen Ursula von der Leyen’s rule will be the launch of a digital euro. Once digital identity wallets are in widespread use, this will be the inevitable next step. The European Central Bank is already working on the preparatory phase of an EU-wide central bank digital currency. As Euro News reports, the Commission has already “proposed the legal framework that could pave the way for the ECB to make the digital euro project a reality. Now it up to the co-legislators to finalise it.”

One thing that is certain: EU citizens will not get to vote on whether they want a digital euro or not. As with digital identity, most of them do not even know it’s on its way.

* Of course, most of these things would be happening with or without Ursula von der Leyen as president. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that she has played — and will continue to play — a stand-out role in their development.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07 ... leyen.html
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