Russia today

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Tue Apr 16, 2024 3:13 pm

PUTIN’S REMARKS AT PRESS CONFERENCE AFTER MEETING WITH BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT LUKASHENKO, APRIL 11, 2024
APRIL 14, 2024 NATYLIESB LEAVE A COMMENT
Kremlin, 4/11/24

The presidents continued consultations at a working lunch.

* * *

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Mr Lukashenko,

Thank you for coming in time for Cosmonautics Day, especially because we have a major event – our cosmonauts, including the first female cosmonaut from Belarus returned safely to earth.

We have another good event – our new heavy missile flew from a new spaceport. This is yet another stage in the development of the space industry in Russia.

And, of course, in addition to all other things, we have something to discuss. I am referring to our economic ties that are making steady headway. Last year, we demonstrated good economic growth rates and now everything is on the upsurge.

Overall, we see even bigger growth in the first months of the current year than we had in the past year. We are developing diversification, cooperation and interoperability. So, everything is on the upsurge and we are very happy about this.

Naturally, we will talk about security issues in the western borders of both Belarus and Russia. I know that you have information on everything taking place in Ukraine. Nevertheless, I will certainly use your visit to tell you in detail about what is going on.

In general, as you know, we have never rejected a peaceful settlement of disputes. Moreover, this is what we were inclined to do. It was not Russia that started this war in 2014. Everything began with a coup d’etat in Ukraine. Later, when everything moved to a hot phase, you initiated the conduct of peace negotiations in Belarus. We launched them in two cities.

Later, the negotiating teams moved to Turkey, to Istanbul.

We largely completed this work there, which took us much time and effort. We initialed it on both sides. Ukraine also initialed it. This paper, this document was initialed.

As you know, later, under pressure from the West, the Ukrainian side opted out of these agreements. I would like to remind you that at the time we were told that we could not sign the document in this manner, that Ukraine could not sign the document “with a gun to its head,” that we had to withdraw our troops from Kiev. So we did. Immediately after we did that, our agreements were discarded.

Now, as you know, the idea of holding some kind of conference in Switzerland is being promoted. We are not invited there. Moreover, they think that we have nothing to do there, and at the same time they say that nothing can be solved without us. Since we are not going there (it has now turned into a kind of nonsense), they say that we refuse to negotiate. We were not invited, but they say that we refuse.

It would be funny if it were not so sad. Once again, I would like to emphasise that we are in favour of talks. But not in the format of being imposed any schemes that have nothing to do with reality. Why do I say that? Because if the need arises, I will allow myself to turn to you, and maybe we will continue consultations with you in this area.

As for other matters, you are also well aware that, unfortunately, we have recently seen a series of strikes on our energy facilities, and we had to respond. I would like to emphasise that in winter time, guided by humanitarian considerations, we did not launch any strikes on energy facilities. I mean, they wanted to have our social institutions, hospitals and so on left without power supply. But after a series of strikes on our energy facilities, we had to respond.

I repeat once again: if everything gets down to solving the issues we talked about from the outset, and in the energy sector they are related, among other things, to solving one of the tasks that we set for ourselves, which is demilitarisation… Above all, we proceed from the fact that in this way we directly impact the military-industrial complex of Ukraine. But if we do get to the point where I started, if we move on to talks about resolving all the issues in other ways, then of course, as I have already said many times, we are ready for that.

You and I will talk about it in greater detail, I will tell you everything in detail.

President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko: Mr Putin, thank you for your updates. I can confirm everything you have said, because you and I revisited these issues on numerous occasions – a year ago, and several months ago – and discussed them, including the peace settlement. They are planning to hold what they call a peace conference in Switzerland. But if they want to talk about peace in Ukraine without us, let them do it.

Once again, we believe that the only thing they can agree on there is how to intensify the escalation of this conflict. Without Russia, what peace process are we talking about? No peace settlement is possible without Russia.

Maybe they are right in choosing not to invite us, because there is actually nothing to talk to them about when they try to invite more than 100 states and dictate something to us or enforce something on us. This does not sound like a proposal for peace talks.

Vladimir Putin: I think they – or at least the opposite side – has driven itself into a corner, to a certain extent, by refusing to negotiate, expecting to defeat Russia on the battlefield, to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. Now, having understood that this is impossible and having refused to negotiate, they have found themselves in a predicament.

Alexander Lukashenko: Indeed, they have found an ingenious way out.

Vladimir Putin: But our goal is not putting everyone in a tough spot. Just the opposite: we are ready for constructive efforts. But clearly, nothing detached from reality can be imposed on us.

Alexander Lukashenko: What I wanted to say is that I wholeheartedly support, absolutely wholeheartedly, the Russian authorities and you personally when it comes to the peace process in this conflict.

There are all the conditions for sitting down and negotiating the issue. If they do not want it, the reason is clear to us; we have answered that question. If those across the ocean choose to talk about peace, Ukraine will hear their voice. Ukrainians should know, especially the ordinary people, that the issue does not depend on us. Speaking plainly, the ball is in their court.

I remember the process that began in Belarus. We hosted three rounds of talks, and the fourth round was held in Istanbul. You later sent the photocopies to me. First you showed me the document, which I read, and then you forwarded the copy to me, just as we had agreed. It was the initialled document. It registered major concessions from both Russians and Ukrainians. And then a visitor called them [Ukrainians] down and ordered them to keep fighting to the last Ukrainian.

In other words, we wholeheartedly support the peace process, which Russia never refused to discuss, including today.

If we can contribute to this, you are aware of our capabilities. We will always stand together and act in the same spirit as you.

Thank you for the space mission. It is clear that it would not be held without your decision. We agreed that we would send a Belarusian woman.

Continue reading here. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73852

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/04/put ... l-11-2024/

******

The Russian Ambassador To Poland Shared Important Insight Into Bilateral Relations

Image

ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 16, 2024

Ambassador Andreev’s interview was very insightful, especially after he shared the important point that Russophobia very rarely manifests itself openly in personal contacts. This contradicts the popular perceptions of RT’s mostly “Non-Russian Pro-Russian” audience, who’d do well to remember this so as to resist the urge that some feel to behave bigotedly towards Poles and thus discredit Russia by association.

Russian Ambassador to Poland Sergey Andreev shared important insight into bilateral relations during his recent interview with RT, which can be watched with English dubbing here. The present piece will summarize what he said before concluding with some brief thoughts about its significance in the current socio-political context. Ambassador Andreev began by mentioning how taboo it is for Poles to discuss the participation of their citizens in the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Poles constitute the largest plurality of foreign fighters there at 2,960 out of 13,387, and slightly more than 50% of them (1,497) had been eliminated as of 14 March. Russia’s top diplomat in Poland said that sometimes these fighters will appear in the media to generally discuss what they did while abroad, but they never share specifics like their side’s death toll. He was then asked to express his views about the joint NATO mission in Ukraine.

Ambassador Andreev mentioned that its purpose is unclear because other Western officials haven’t spoken about it, only Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, so he said that it’s too early to reach any conclusions about it. He even suggested that perhaps there’s some misunderstanding of sorts though he didn’t elaborate on that train of thought. What he might have meant, however, is that Sikorski could have been spinning something old as something new for soft power purposes.

The next part of the interview saw him talk about the acute nature of the nationwide farmers’ protests, which continue despite ongoing talks with the government and various proposals being bandied about. As for whether society’s overwhelming support of this movement could translate into opposition to the government’s plans to increase defense spending, Ambassador Andreev clarified that these are “two questions on two non-intersecting planes”.

He elaborated that most Poles favor a multilateral EU solution to the issue of cheap and low-quality Ukrainian agricultural imports flooding their domestic market but support unilateral measures if that can’t be achieved. With respect to Poland’s military buildup, he said that society has been massively indoctrinated into fearing alleged “Russian aggression” and therefore there aren’t any widespread doubts about this policy or protests against it.

The interview then segued into Ambassador Andreev’s views about the prevalence of Russophobia in Polish society. He confirmed that interstate relations and public perception are significantly negative and even hostile, but then he surprised the average RT viewer by explaining that this is openly manifested very rarely in personal contacts. In his words, “most people are normal, sane…basically, interpersonal relationships develop more or less normally.”

He added that “From my own experience, I will say that in my almost 10 years of working in Poland, I can count on one hand the cases when such a negative attitude was expressed towards me personally. Basically, everything was quite correct.” The conditions for Russian diplomats working in Poland are also the same as elsewhere in the West from what he’s gathered by speaking with his colleagues. Negative manifestations intensified since 2022, he said, “but to be honest, I didn’t notice any drastic changes.”

Top influencers in the Alt-Media Community like “Simplicius The Thinker” should reflect on what Ambassador Andreev said after this popular writer tweeted very condescendingly about Poles three times on Sunday here, here, and here. His second tweet even employed the ethno-bigoted slur “Polack”, albeit purposely misspelled to prevent administrative action from being taken against his account for violating X’s terms of service against hate speech if anyone were to report him for this.

“Simplicius” and many “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” hate the Polish and Israeli governments, but this shouldn’t translate into hatred of the Polish people, which is bigoted and thus betrays the anti-bigotry cause that Russia is fighting for in Ukraine. Furthermore, it’s misleading to conflate Israeli leaders of Polish descent with ethnic Poles since their ancestors’ former Polish citizenship doesn’t mean that they were ethnic Poles, the same as Stepan Bandera’s Polish citizenship didn’t make him an ethnic Pole either.

This clarification isn’t to imply that Poles with a Jewish ethno-religious identity carried out war crimes of the sort that some of those Poles with a Ukrainian ethno-national identity did, but to point out that describing those two groups as “Poles” is misleading since it suggests a Polish ethno-national identity. Smearing Israeli leaders of Polish descent as “Polacks” only exposes one’s own ignorance. Those who’d like to learn more about Polish-Jewish relations can review these recent analyses here, here, and here.

Moving along after clarifying this crucial point that all “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” should always keep in mind when discussing anything about Poland in order to avoid discrediting the Russian cause by association if they end up behaving bigotedly, Ambassador Andreev lamented that the Polish authorities’ condemnation of the Crocus terrorist attack didn’t occur until the evening after. He interpreted this as a belated formality after the whole world already issued similar statements.

Moreover, he expressed displeasure with Prime Minister Donald Tusk hoping that Russia won’t exploit the terrorist attack as a pretext for “increasing violence and aggression” in Ukraine. It was also regrettable that some local media wildly speculated about the incident to the point of even suggesting that it was a false flag carried out by the Russian security services. Ambassador Andreev noted that this shows the powerful influence that the anti-Russian information warfare campaign has had.

On the topic of American nukes in Poland, which President Andrzej Duda recently once again requested, he said that this isn’t anything new and that Poland already participates in joint nuclear missions in NATO. The US has thus far rebuffed Poland’s requests to base its nukes there, however, but Ambassador Andreev said that Poland will agree to anything that the US requests of it due to how strongly Polish society and their elites support their country’s strategic alliance with America.

Relations with Russia could improve once the special operation ends upon the fulfillment of Moscow’s goals, but a “new normality” would emerge instead of a reversion back to the past since neither side is interested in going back to how everything used to be, which he said contributed to the current crisis. The final question that he was asked was about when Russia “lost” Poland and when it became clear that “Poland isn’t with us”, which he said can be understood in different ways.

He said that unfavorable attitudes towards the Soviet Union and Russia have always been widespread throughout Polish society and shared how surprised he was decades ago to learn about this first-hand from Polish acquaintances back when he assumed that everyone shared the same socialist solidarity. These differences have always existed, he said, so one could say that Poland therefore wasn’t ever “with Russia” in the sense that the question implied, thus suggesting that there wasn’t anything to “lose”.

All in all, Ambassador Andreev’s interview was very insightful, especially after he shared the important point that Russophobia very rarely manifests itself openly in personal contacts. This contradicts the popular perceptions of RT’s mostly “Non-Russian Pro-Russian” audience, who’d do well to remember this so as to resist the urge that some feel to behave bigotedly towards Poles. Russia is fighting against bigotry in Ukraine so it’s counterproductive to its cause to also have bigots among its supporters.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-russ ... -to-poland

Of course bigotry is always to be avoided, if only because it clouds sound judgement. Nonetheless it is impossible to ignore Poland's consistently poor political judgement over the last 500years.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Wed Apr 17, 2024 5:33 pm

Dmitry Medvedev's Speech On Russia's Strategic Borders

One may not like Russia or even feel hostile towards its current policies and leadership.

But that should not hinder one to recognize and acknowledge how Russia is seeing itself and it defines its own role in the wider world.

The former Russian president Dimitry Medvedev is currently the deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia recently spoke about multiple definitions of borders.

Medvedev has lately become a bit of the bad guy who spits the harsh truth with the good guy being Russia's President Vladimir Putin who is using less vitriolic language. But if one removes the rhetoric chaff the concepts espoused by both in various speeches are quite similar and should be seen as the basis of Russia's policies.

The Russian magazine Expert reproduced an edited version (in Russian) of Medvedev's speech (machine translation):

Dmitry Medvedev: "Russia, like any great power, has strategic borders far beyond geographical ones"https://expert.ru/mnenie/dmitriy-medved ... icheskikh/

The speech presents a Russian view on the border concept along six theses.

Below are some excerpts which I believe deserve a further discussion:

First. We don't need someone else's land. We will never give up on our own. So it was and so it will be. This is the principle that governs our state border policy.
...
The authors of various geopolitical theories of various countries (from China to Europe and America) proceed from one obvious thesis. Any state as a sovereign subject of international relations has two types of borders — geographical and strategic.
The former are stable and officially recognized in accordance with international law demarcation and delimitation lines that fix the geographical limits of the State. This is one of the main elements of its political and territorial framework.
...
[The later] borders are not limited to the physical size of countries, their airspace and territorial waters. They are not directly related to State sovereignty. The strategic boundaries of a state directly depend on how far its political power extends. The more powerful a state is, the further its strategic frontiers are located outside its state borders. And all the more extensive is the strategic space that such a country exerts economic, political, socio-cultural influence on. This is the zone of the so-called national interests of the state. Although strategic borders and national interests are not the same concepts.

In return, the powerful powers that set the tone in world relations offered their wards military and political protection. Weak states or, even worse, those that reached the end of their glory and power became puppet or vassal states for their patrons, or, as they later began to say, "friendly" nations (the same thing, but less offensive).


The strategic borders of states, or spheres of influence, do not create a reason for physical extension. They come at several levels:

Second. The presence of strategic borders outside their own territory today does not mean that strong and responsible countries intend to go to war with their neighbors and redraw the political map. This is the difference between our time and previous centuries, when borders were subject to constant fluctuations and could be challenged at any time.
...
In general, Russia, like any great Power, has strategic borders far beyond geographical ones. And they are based not on military force or financial injections, but on a much more solid, almost unshakable basis.

The third. There are several levels of Russian strategic borders.

The first level is limited to the natural landscape (the Carpathians, the Iranian Highlands, the Caucasus Mountains, the Pamirs). And civilizational frontiers-it is clear that a number of our neighbors, for historical reasons, are illogical to include in the Russian ecumene.
...
The key point is that we have no territorial disputes with the countries included in this belt. In the years that have passed since the collapse of the USSR, we have maintained profitable trade cooperation and comfortable interpersonal communication.
...
If we talk about our second-level strategic borders, they cover the space that is commonly called Greater Eurasia. That is why Russian President Vladimir Putin put forward the initiative to create a Large Eurasian Partnership. This is the key integration path on our continent. Its essence is to unite the potentials of all states and regional organizations of Eurasia as widely as possible.
...
And about the highest level of our strategic borders. Russia's global interests in the world are quite understandable and natural. They have not changed in recent decades. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, our country is a great world power. And it will continue to show healthy, appropriate care for those who need help. This is evident in the traditionally strong relations with African countries and Latin America.


Russia sees Ukraine as being inside of Russia's innermost strategic border:

Fourth. In the case of the so — called "Ukraine" (or rather, with Little Russia), all our opponents need to firmly and forever understand the simple truth. Territories on both banks of the Dnieper River are an integral part of Russia's strategic historical borders. Therefore, all attempts to forcibly change them, to cut them off "alive" — are doomed.

Our enemies constantly insist that the main goal of Russia is to "seize" Ukrainian lands, some "untold treasures of Independence": wheat, steel, gas, coal. But in fact, it turns out that there is nothing so special in Bandera's "Ukraine" in terms of the economy that Russia — unlike the West — would not have itself and in much more serious volumes.

In "Ukraine", the main wealth for us is of a completely different kind. The great value that we will not give up to anyone and for nothing is people. Close to us and relatives. ...

Fifth. There is one contrasting difference between the approaches of Russia and the "collective West" (mainly the United States). America and its satellites are trying to extend their strategic borders to almost all regions of the world. Under the pretext of "spreading democracy", wars are being fomented all over the planet. The goal is quite transparent-money making.
...
Knowing full well where our strategic borders extend, the West spat on the century-old foundations and organized a geopolitical intervention first in Georgia, and then to Ukraine. We observe similar attempts in Moldova and in the countries of Central Asia. Fortunately, the authorities of the Central Asian states show restraint and wisdom. In their desire for prosperity for their peoples, they focus on their neighbors in Greater Eurasia, rather than on an obese and dependent Europe.


The conflict comes to a conclusion:

Sixth. For the West, the conflict over Ukraine has now turned into a confrontation between two civilizations. Our, all-Russian or Russian (the core of which is the territory of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine), and western.

Directly, our opponents are afraid to go against us. Although recently Western madmen from politics and the military have been increasing their pressure (just recall the conversation of Bundeswehr officers — and how much of this has not been published), however, Washington-Brussels puppet masters prefer to play the war using their puppets.
...
On the margins of propaganda battles, our enemies deliberately resort to shameless substitution of concepts. The West's seizure of "Ukraine" is called "liberation from the Russian dictatorship." And planting and supporting a bastard neo-Nazi regime created by a comedy series actor is "supporting democracy and freedom." Conversely, our efforts to preserve the common Russian space are described as Russian "intervention" and "occupation."

All normal people have long understood that this is a lie. Healthy political forces in the world are also gradually becoming aware of the true state of affairs.


For any reasonable person who is not infected with Russophobia and is not fooled by Anglo-Saxon propaganda, the conclusions are obvious.

1.There is a harsh reality that Western countries will inevitably have to accept. [...] Time is playing against the so-called "golden billion" today.

2.The strategic borders of states that do not depend on the Anglo-Saxons will become wider and stronger. [...]

3.We strive to make the space defined by our strategic borders a zone of mutual understanding and constructive cooperation. [...]

4.The current neo-Nazi "Ukraine" is a battering ram against Russia, which is used to aggressively push through Western ideological principles in the all-Russian historical space. Another attempt to realize the centuries-old dreams of the West to throw our country into the borders of the Moscow Principality. The goal is obviously unattainable. [...]

5.We will certainly bring the special military operation to its logical conclusion. Until the final victory. Before the neo-Nazi capitulation. Sad senile people from Washington and Brussels are afraid: if, they say, the Russians gain the upper hand, then after Ukraine they will go further — to Europe and even overseas. You won't know what's more in these delusions: the habit of shameless lies or senile dementia. But in reality, everything is simple: we do not need the territories of Poland, the Baltic States or other European countries. But the people who live there, who are one with us, are not allowed to be harassed by anyone.

6.Russia's inevitable victory will also create a new architecture of Eurasian and international security. It should be reflected in new interstate documents that will "concretize" these realities. This includes observing international rules of decency with all countries, paying close attention to their history and existing strategic borders. The Western world must finally learn a simple lesson and learn to respect our national interests.


But will the Western world learn the lesson?

Or what can/will it do to avoid learning it?

Posted by b on April 17, 2024 at 8:40 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/04/d ... .html#more

*******

Happy Divorce.

Many may not know this, but with Russia slowly withdrawing from ISS--with Angara A5 success the road to Russian orbital station is now wide open--NASA and Roscosmos actually agreed to maintain common standards on docking equipment for the foreseeable future in case US and Russia should act in orbital emergencies. That means one side will be able to aid another in case the evacuation will be needed. It is a sad reality but Washington did everything it could to demolish the last vestiges of US-Russian cooperation.


Stuart, of Imperial College, said that the way the station is built enforces cooperation between nations that find little else to agree about. "Although strong words have been used on both sides since the conflict in Ukraine, in reality, the agencies involved in the station—as well as the hardware of the station itself—are interdependent in a way that has so far ensured a stable, if tense, continuation of operation," said Stuart. "Over the past decades of operation, other political tensions between the US and Russia have led to questions about the future of the ISS, but it has always weathered the storm," said Stuart. The future of the ISS, if Russia does act on its threats and withdraws, appears bleak. It would be difficult to get the ISS to even move without Russian help, said Virts. And transporting astronauts to the station would be more difficult, as under the ISS agreement, Russia flies international teams from its Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.

So, it is what it is and it is not going to be any different for a long time. Russia is breaking off most of the contacts with the West despite some moves of this nature:


Emmanuel Macron se rend mardi à Vassieux-en-Vercors, dans la Drôme, pour rendre hommage au maquis du Vercors, marqué par un massacre de civils pendant la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Cette visite intervient à l’occasion du 80ème anniversaire de la Libération. Une cérémonie internationale sera organisée en Normandie, le 6 juin prochain. La Russie sera bien invitée, mais pas son président Vladimir Poutine. Selon les informations d’Europe 1, la Russie sera bien représentée début juin en Normandie si toutefois Moscou accepte l’invitation de l’Élysée, et sauf coup de théâtre, le président russe Vladimir Poutine ne participera pas en personne aux commémorations mais une délégation russe y sera conviée. La Mission Libération chargée d'organiser cette commémoration a confirmé dans l'après-midi cette information, en précisant bien que le maître du Kremlin ne sera pas invité en raison de la "guerre d'agression" russe en Ukraine.

Translation: [/color=red] Emmanuel Macron goes to Vassieux-en-Vercors, in Drôme, on Tuesday to pay tribute to the Vercors maquis, marked by a massacre of civilians during the Second World War. This visit takes place on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the Liberation. An international ceremony will be organized in Normandy on June 6. Russia will be invited, but not its president Vladimir Putin. According to information from Europe 1, Russia will be well represented at the beginning of June in Normandy if, however, Moscow accepts the invitation from the Élysée, and barring a twist, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not participate in person in the commemorations but a delegation Russian will be invited. The Liberation Mission responsible for organizing this commemoration confirmed this information in the afternoon, specifying that the master of the Kremlin will not be invited due to the Russian "war of aggression" in Ukraine.[/color]

French really need a lesson in history--USSR in WW II was fighting against Nazism; present day France, UK and USA support Nazism of 404 variety. The only reason Russian delegation may materialize in Normandy is to pay respect to Allied soldiers and officers who fought against the same enemy. Present Western elites are supporters of Nazism and terrorism and are clear and present enemies of Russian people. IF Moscow accepts. Plus, the invitation is not from officials in the West, it is from organizers of the event.

Meanwhile:


Russian President Vladimir Putin has spoken with his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, following Tehran’s drone and missile attack on Israel, the Kremlin has said. Iran launched scores of drones and missiles against Israel on Saturday, as “punishment” for the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria that killed seven high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force officers at the beginning of the month. Raisi phoned Putin on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the “aggravated situation” in the region and the “retaliatory measures” taken by Tehran, according to the readout of the call. Putin “expressed hope that all parties will show reasonable restraint and will not allow a new round of confrontation, fraught with catastrophic consequences for the entire region,” the Kremlin said. Raisi “noted that Iran’s actions were forced and limited in nature,” adding that Tehran was “not interested in further escalation of tensions.” Both presidents agreed that the root cause of the current conflict is the unresolved Palestinian-Israeli conflict, calling for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza, deliveries of humanitarian aid, and the creation of conditions for a political and diplomatic settlement.

Israel now lives in a different world since Saturday and faster Tel-Aviv wakes up to the reality the better chances it may have for survival in some form. Judging by a strong showing of Hasbara on each and every available public platforms, Iran did hurt Israel where it mattered and demonstrated what has been known for a while--US-made AD/ABM systems such as their Israeli knockoffs do not work in real war against technologically advanced opponent. Iran, evidently, also tested some new cruise missiles which did penetrate Israeli AD. In coming days and months we will find out more about that fateful night.

In related news, legendary Commander of Akhmat Brigade (then the corps commander) Major-General Apti Alautdinov was appointed First Deputy of the Commander of Main Political Directorate of Russian Armed Forces. This is big and, highly likely, opens a wide path for Alautdinov towards huge political career in highest echelons of power in Russia. Alautdinov commands a profound professional respect in Russian Armed Forces and universal admiration and respect among overwhelming majority of Russians. Congratulations to Apti Aronovich Alautdinov--a great son of Chechen people and Russia. So, this is your brief SitRep for this Tuesday.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/04 ... vorce.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Thu Apr 18, 2024 3:04 pm

U.S./EU Lobby Against Georgian Law That Would Reveal Their Secret Influence

The government of Georgia has tried for some time to implement a law "On transparency of foreign influence”. Its aim is to publicly identify organizations and parties who receive a significant amount of their budget from abroad:

The draft law “In order to ensure transparency”, initiated for the second time by the Georgian Dream faction, envisages the registration of such non-entrepreneurial (non-commercial) legal entities and media outlets, whose income – more than 20% – is received from abroad as an organization carrying out the interests of a foreign power. According to the project, everyone who is considered an “organization carrying the interests of a foreign power” must be registered in the public register under the same name in a mandatory manner. At the time of registration, it will be necessary to reflect the received income. At the same time, the organizations will have the obligation to fill in the financial declaration every year.
Those organization who currently receive money from the various U.S. or EU government or non-government organizations are of course not amused that they will have to reveal their association with such sources. They want to lobby for foreign positions without being identified as foreign influencers.


They have therefore launched protests against their country's government and parliament which has passed the law in the first reading. Two further readings will be required to finalize the law.

The protesters against the law claim that it is a "Russian law" against "foreign agents".

Since 2012 Russia does have a law that is somewhat similar to what Georgia is attempting to implement but such type of laws are certainly not a Russian intervention:

Supporters of the [Russian version of the] law have likened it to similar legislation in the US that requires lobbyists employed by foreign governments to reveal their financing.

The U.S. equivalent to the Russian and Georgian law is of course the much older Foreign Agents Registration Act:

The Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) (22 U.S.C. § 611 et seq.) is a United States law that imposes public disclosure obligations on persons representing foreign interests. It requires "foreign agents"—defined as individuals or entities engaged in domestic lobbying or advocacy for foreign governments, organizations, or persons ("foreign principals")—to register with the Department of Justice (DOJ) and disclose their relationship, activities, and related financial compensation.
...
FARA was enacted in 1938 primarily to counter Nazi propaganda, with an initial focus on criminal prosecution of subversive activities; since 1966, enforcement has shifted mostly to civil penalties and voluntary compliance.
For most of its existence, FARA was relatively obscure and rarely invoked; since 2017, the law has been enforced with far greater regularity and intensity, particularly against officials connected to the Trump administration. Subsequent high-profile indictments and convictions under FARA have prompted greater public, political, and legal scrutiny, including calls for reform.

FARA is administered and enforced by the FARA Unit of the Counterintelligence and Export Control Section (CES) within the DOJ's National Security Division (NSD). Since 2016, there has been a 30 percent increase in registrations; as of November 2022, there were over 500 active foreign agents registered with the FARA Unit.


The Washington Post, without mentioning the long standing FARA law which is at least as strict as the new Georgian one, falsely insists that the original idea of the new Georgian law is indeed Russian:

Georgia pushes Russian-style ‘foreign agent’ law, putting E.U. bid at risk

Georgia’s Parliament voted Wednesday to advance deeply contentious legislation aimed at cracking down on “foreign agents” — an echo of a similar law in Russia that has been used to crush political dissent.
In Georgia, the bill has sparked huge street protests and drawn condemnation, including from President Salome Zourabichvili, who is not a member of the Georgian Dream political party, which controls Parliament and the government.

Zourabichvili and other critics say the bill is itself an instrument of foreign interference — backed by Russia and intended to undermine Georgia’s bid to join the European Union.

On Tuesday evening, as some protesters clashed with police in the streets of the capital, Tbilisi, Zourabichvili said the bill was evidence of Russian meddling.


However neither is the law "Russian style" - it is a copy of FARA - nor does the law include the loaded word "agent". It does not accuse anyone of being such but seeks public transparency over foreign financial influences which would of course also include Russian ones.

The protests against the law look like an attempt of a typical color revolution:

17 Apr 23:15 - "Let's demand that the Prime Minister talks to us" - rally participants moved towards the government administration
After Levan Tsutskiridze, co-founder of the “European Platform of Georgia” group, announced the plan of action, demonstrators headed towards the government chancellery and demanded a meeting with the Prime Minister. Tsutskiridze proposed demanding that the government repeal the law and release those detained the day before. Police and security forces are strengthening their cordon near the chancellery building.

At 21:30 rally participants presented an ultimatum to the authorities demanding the repeal of the law and gave them one hour to make this statement.


Attempts to storm or blockade government buildings have been pushed back. The government is holding firm. It has a solid majority in parliament and can outvote a potential presidential veto.

Every Georgian decision maker has the Ukrainian "Maidan revolution" in mind during which the opposition used snipers (allegedly from Georgia!) shot at police as well as protesters.

We can be sure that the Georgian government is aware and well prepared for such an escalation.

The law is likely to pass. Soon thereafter a majority of the organizations which currently organize the street protests against the law will have to admit that they are the foreign paid influencers the law is aimed at to reveal their dubious interests.

Posted by b on April 18, 2024 at 13:12 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/04/u ... .html#more

*******

About pushing the fascist henchman Ilyin into the Russian State University for the Humanities
April 17, 20:28

Image

Regarding questions about pushing the fascist henchman Ilyin into the Russian State University for the Humanities and my position.

1. Ilyin is a fascist henchman who was on the side of those with whom my grandfather fought in the Great Patriotic War.

2. There were no third parties in that war - either with us or with them. Ilyin was not with us. Ilyin was with Krasnov, Sakharov, Nzhdeh, Bandera, Shukhevych, Shkuro, Shmelev and other brown scum who fed from the hands of our enemies.

3. I wish the students of the Russian State University for the Humanities success in the fight against attempts to push through the fascist henchman Ilyin. In any case, the story with Ilyin will put a brown stain on this university.

4. The absence of a clear ideology in the state gives birth to such ideological cadavers, when they try to mold a beacon of Russian philosophy out of a fascist henchman with white threads. Like everything artificial, it will die out naturally, just like the relatively recent attempts to glorify the fascist henchman Mannerheim, the authors of which are now bashfully keeping silent on this matter.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9099651.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Fri Apr 19, 2024 6:08 pm

Russia’s Request For UNSC Sanctions Against Israel Is A Principled Soft Power Move

Image

ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 19, 2024

The sole purpose is to reaffirm the primacy of international law as enshrined in the UN Charter after Israel refused to implement UNSC 2728.

Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzia made headlines across the world after saying the following at the Security Council on Thursday: “Unfortunately, Israel has blatantly ignored UNSC resolution 2728, with encouragement from the US, which was quick to call it ‘non-binding’…In case it fails to be implemented, the Council has the power to sanction violators and saboteurs of its decisions. We will return to this issue in the very near future.”

This will predictably be spun by top Alt-Media influencers to falsely claim that it serves as proof of their conspiracy theory that Russia is secretly colluding with Iran against Israel even though President Putin is a proud lifelong philo-Semite as proven by his own words from the Kremlin website from 2000-2018. The fact that it follows Mehr News’ fake news about the Russian leader hailing Iran’s retaliation against Israel will further manipulate popular perceptions about that country’s position towards this conflict.

Nevertheless, the objective reality is that this is really just a principled soft power move aimed at reaffirming the primacy of international law as enshrined in the UN Charter, not a partisan one against Israel due to some presumed bias. It was already lamented here in early April that “Israel’s Flouting Of UNSC Resolution 2728 Shows The Limits Of International Law” since it’s unimaginable that the US will agree to sanction its ally or that a “coalition of the willing” will assemble to force it into compliance.

Ambassador Nebenzia knows this, yet he’s also not going to stop reminding his counterparts at the Security Council about their legal duty to consider tabling a resolution for sanctioning Israel. There’s no chance that it’ll pass due to America’s veto but it’s still important to show the world that some countries remain committed to the original “rules-based order” from the post-World War II era. Despite being imperfect, it was still better than the hypocritical double standards that the West presently employs.

Russia’s Permanent UN Representative himself had just described that approach earlier in the week as “a parade of hypocrisy” after the West condemned Iran’s retaliation against Israel but not Israel’s bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus that violated international law and provoked its attack. At the same time, however, the Kremlin carefully signaled three times since then that it still enjoys cordial ties with Israel in spite of that and even though that it partially complied with the US’ anti-Russian demands.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Wednesday that his country maintains constructive dialogue with Iran and Israel, after which the Russian Ambassador to Israel Anatoly Viktorov met with Israeli Foreign Ministry officials a day later to discuss bilateral cooperation. Thursday also saw Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov disclose after a meeting with Israeli Ambassador to Russia Simona Halperin that he called on both sides – Israel and Iran – to show “maximum restraint”.

What all of this goes to show is that Russia doesn’t have any anti-Israeli intentions in proposing sanctions against it for refusing to implement UNSC 2728. The sole purpose is to reaffirm the primacy of international law as enshrined in the UN Charter. The example that’ll be set by the US likely vetoing any sanctions that might soon be tabled would further erode the legal foundations upon which the post-World War II era was built. That might be inevitable, but Russia still doesn’t have to help this process unfold.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/russias- ... -sanctions

This is hair-splitting by an Israeli fanboy. The Zionist entity by it's abhorrent behavior is poisoning whatever international good will it had. Of course this has been going on for a long time but the excuses and justifications cannot bear the weight of Nazi-ism. Russia wields the law like a rapier and the letter might serve varied purpose.

******

INTELLINEWS: RUSSIAN PATRIOTISM REACHES AN ALL TIME HIGH – POLL
APRIL 18, 2024 NATYLIESB 1 COMMENT
Intellinews, 3/31/24

Patriotism in Russia is at an all-time high, according to a recent poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) published on March 29.

An overwhelming majority (94%) of Russians identify themselves as “patriots of the country.” The figure includes 62% who declare their patriotism as absolute, marking a significant uptick of 10 percentage points from a similar poll a year earlier.

According to the report, the surge in patriotic sentiment has been unprecedented, tracing its origins back to the autumn of 2014 following Russia’s annexation of the Crimea, which was widely welcomed by the Russian public.

Since then, the proportion of “absolute” patriots has substantially overtaken those who consider their patriotism to be moderate, with 48% in the former category and 36% in the latter.

“The level of patriotism among Russians is higher than ever: today, 94% of our fellow citizens consider themselves patriots, including 62% who are absolute patriots, an all-time high since data began to be collected,” VTsIOM said in its report, cited by TASS.

The survey revealed respondents made a deep connection between patriotism and familial bonds, a sense of belonging, and cherished moments with loved ones. The concept of “homeland” (rodinina) extends beyond Russia’s mere geographical confines and also encapsulating concepts like “haven of safety” and “joy.”

The participants of the survey articulated their love for Russia as a blend of pride, defence, contribution to its development and a profound understanding of its rich history and culture.

“You know someone loves their country if they try to be a decent, responsible, honest and loyal person,” the report says.

In a parallel survey and in the wake of President Vladimir Putin’s recent landslide results in the presidential elections, polls reveal that the respondents continue to place substantial trust and confidence in the president, with figures oscillating between 81% and 84%, according to VTsIOM.

“When asked about their trust in Putin, 84% of respondents answered positively, marking a marginal increase of 1 percentage point since March 10. Furthermore, a similar percentage of the population, 84%, affirm their belief in Putin’s effective leadership as the head of state,” VTsIOM said.

Putin declared a sweeping victory in the country’s presidential election on March 15-17, taking an unbelievable 87% of the vote on a record turnout.

However, the pollster found a slight dip in trust towards Putin, with 80.7% of participants expressing a positive outlook, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points in a poll of 1,600 adult residents conducted between March 18 and 24, in the midst of which Russia was struck by a brutal terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall shopping mall on March 22 that saw over 140 people die. Nevertheless, the president’s approval rating remains steady at 78.9%, VTsIOM said.

The government under Putin also received mixed reviews, with a 58% approval rating for the government’s job performance, down 3 percentage points from the previous survey a month earlier. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s approval stood at 56%, reflecting a 3 percentage point decrease.

The poll found that the ruling United Russia party enjoyed a 52% support level, witnessing a slight increase of 1 percentage point. Other parties, including the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), saw minor fluctuations in their support levels.

Individual party leaders received varied levels of trust, with KPRF’s Gennady Zyuganov and A Just Russia-For Truth’s Sergey Mironov seeing increases in trust levels, while New People’s Alexey Nechayev experienced a decline.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/04/int ... high-poll/

******

It Is A Well-Known Fact...

... that Obama's uncle liberated Auschwitz, while Western Allies captured Berlin.


МОСКВА, 18 апр — РИА Новости. Посольство России в Берлине получило уведомление о нежелательности участия официальных представителей РФ в памятных мероприятиях по случаю 79-й годовщины освобождения узников концлагерей, заявила официальный представитель МИД РФ Мария Захарова.

Translation: MOSCOW, April 18 – RIA Novosti. The Russian Embassy in Berlin received a notice that it is undesirable for Russian officials to participate in commemorative events on the occasion of the 79th anniversary of the liberation of concentration camp prisoners, said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

There is no need to discuss Zakharova's response, because I write in this blog for 10 years now about unrelenting rewriting and falsifying of history of WW II by the West. E.g. as was noted on many occasions before, professionally respected by me Colonel Macgregor continues to spread what amounts to Nazi propaganda about the Red Army and USSR in WW II having absolutely no background in real history of WW II other than cherry picking dubious (Norman Davis, anyone) sources and anecdotal "evidence" from whatever the environment of Baltic or Ukrainian people he grew up with. I am on record--Russia must repatriate remains of Red Army soldiers buried anywhere in Europe, especially Germany, and remove the monument in Treptower Park and bring it back to Russia. The generation of Western Allies who fought heroically in WW II is pretty much gone now and there is no need in trying to convince the West about who and how defeated Nazism.

Small minority of Europeans who know the truth makes no difference whatsoever in public opinion and they will continue to know anyway because this is what normal people do. The rest, who cares--it is over for the West anyway and the trajectory to oblivion is well defined. The break between Russia and the West is final and, as was pointed out by me on many occasions, a traditional Russophobia of Europeans, always near the surface, was released by Washington and as this proverbial genie it is now out of the bottle. This is THE point--these are not just "elites", this is the majority of population. Modern Western "values" are incompatible with Russian values which are effectively Christian conservative values and NO, so called American "Christian conservatives" are not really conservatives in their outlook.


A move away from conducting financial transactions through Western payment systems, including SWIFT, is vital for Russia and its trading partners, the head of the country’s second-largest lender has said. Speaking on Thursday at the Data Fusion 2024 conference, VTB CEO Andrey Kostin called for the promotion of digital financial settlements in Russia and allied nations. Such a step would end the dominance of the dollar and gain full sovereignty in the financial sector, he claimed. “SWIFT has announced plans to carry out digital payments soon, but we need to kill SWIFT in our settlements, we need to completely get away from it and involve our partners in this as well,” the banking executive insisted, highlighting major work that is being done by the Bank of Russia to achieve the goal. According to Kostin, VTB is currently working on a pilot project to bring the digital ruble into general use, including in cross-border payments.

This is just one sign out of many which testify to an ongoing decoupling of Russia from West's political and economic institutions. Cultural will follow, because true European culture has been already largely transplanted onto Russian soil. Classic and best of modern European culture lives and thrives in Russia. The rest is trash and shouldn't be allowed in. The Iron Curtain is in order and it is Russia now who begins to erect it.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/04 ... -fact.html

These guys...in their 'back at'cha' response to Russophobia would exclude all things Western from Russia, except of course stuff they like such as rock&roll, video games, Hollywood movies. I think this will pass. Of course our Left(wherever it is...) needs to confront this divisive gov/corp 'diversity' scam whose sole purpose is to divide the working class and divert people from class politics.

And boys, if it weren't for Peter The Great Russia would be the balkanized satrapies of the West today.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10790
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Fri Apr 19, 2024 6:08 pm

Russia’s Request For UNSC Sanctions Against Israel Is A Principled Soft Power Move

Image

ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 19, 2024

The sole purpose is to reaffirm the primacy of international law as enshrined in the UN Charter after Israel refused to implement UNSC 2728.

Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzia made headlines across the world after saying the following at the Security Council on Thursday: “Unfortunately, Israel has blatantly ignored UNSC resolution 2728, with encouragement from the US, which was quick to call it ‘non-binding’…In case it fails to be implemented, the Council has the power to sanction violators and saboteurs of its decisions. We will return to this issue in the very near future.”

This will predictably be spun by top Alt-Media influencers to falsely claim that it serves as proof of their conspiracy theory that Russia is secretly colluding with Iran against Israel even though President Putin is a proud lifelong philo-Semite as proven by his own words from the Kremlin website from 2000-2018. The fact that it follows Mehr News’ fake news about the Russian leader hailing Iran’s retaliation against Israel will further manipulate popular perceptions about that country’s position towards this conflict.

Nevertheless, the objective reality is that this is really just a principled soft power move aimed at reaffirming the primacy of international law as enshrined in the UN Charter, not a partisan one against Israel due to some presumed bias. It was already lamented here in early April that “Israel’s Flouting Of UNSC Resolution 2728 Shows The Limits Of International Law” since it’s unimaginable that the US will agree to sanction its ally or that a “coalition of the willing” will assemble to force it into compliance.

Ambassador Nebenzia knows this, yet he’s also not going to stop reminding his counterparts at the Security Council about their legal duty to consider tabling a resolution for sanctioning Israel. There’s no chance that it’ll pass due to America’s veto but it’s still important to show the world that some countries remain committed to the original “rules-based order” from the post-World War II era. Despite being imperfect, it was still better than the hypocritical double standards that the West presently employs.

Russia’s Permanent UN Representative himself had just described that approach earlier in the week as “a parade of hypocrisy” after the West condemned Iran’s retaliation against Israel but not Israel’s bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus that violated international law and provoked its attack. At the same time, however, the Kremlin carefully signaled three times since then that it still enjoys cordial ties with Israel in spite of that and even though that it partially complied with the US’ anti-Russian demands.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Wednesday that his country maintains constructive dialogue with Iran and Israel, after which the Russian Ambassador to Israel Anatoly Viktorov met with Israeli Foreign Ministry officials a day later to discuss bilateral cooperation. Thursday also saw Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov disclose after a meeting with Israeli Ambassador to Russia Simona Halperin that he called on both sides – Israel and Iran – to show “maximum restraint”.

What all of this goes to show is that Russia doesn’t have any anti-Israeli intentions in proposing sanctions against it for refusing to implement UNSC 2728. The sole purpose is to reaffirm the primacy of international law as enshrined in the UN Charter. The example that’ll be set by the US likely vetoing any sanctions that might soon be tabled would further erode the legal foundations upon which the post-World War II era was built. That might be inevitable, but Russia still doesn’t have to help this process unfold.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/russias- ... -sanctions

This is hair-splitting by an Israeli fanboy. The Zionist entity by it's abhorrent behavior is poisoning whatever international good will it had. Of course this has been going on for a long time but the excuses and justifications cannot bear the weight of Nazi-ism. Russia wields the law like a rapier and the letter might serve varied purpose.

******

INTELLINEWS: RUSSIAN PATRIOTISM REACHES AN ALL TIME HIGH – POLL
APRIL 18, 2024 NATYLIESB 1 COMMENT
Intellinews, 3/31/24

Patriotism in Russia is at an all-time high, according to a recent poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) published on March 29.

An overwhelming majority (94%) of Russians identify themselves as “patriots of the country.” The figure includes 62% who declare their patriotism as absolute, marking a significant uptick of 10 percentage points from a similar poll a year earlier.

According to the report, the surge in patriotic sentiment has been unprecedented, tracing its origins back to the autumn of 2014 following Russia’s annexation of the Crimea, which was widely welcomed by the Russian public.

Since then, the proportion of “absolute” patriots has substantially overtaken those who consider their patriotism to be moderate, with 48% in the former category and 36% in the latter.

“The level of patriotism among Russians is higher than ever: today, 94% of our fellow citizens consider themselves patriots, including 62% who are absolute patriots, an all-time high since data began to be collected,” VTsIOM said in its report, cited by TASS.

The survey revealed respondents made a deep connection between patriotism and familial bonds, a sense of belonging, and cherished moments with loved ones. The concept of “homeland” (rodinina) extends beyond Russia’s mere geographical confines and also encapsulating concepts like “haven of safety” and “joy.”

The participants of the survey articulated their love for Russia as a blend of pride, defence, contribution to its development and a profound understanding of its rich history and culture.

“You know someone loves their country if they try to be a decent, responsible, honest and loyal person,” the report says.

In a parallel survey and in the wake of President Vladimir Putin’s recent landslide results in the presidential elections, polls reveal that the respondents continue to place substantial trust and confidence in the president, with figures oscillating between 81% and 84%, according to VTsIOM.

“When asked about their trust in Putin, 84% of respondents answered positively, marking a marginal increase of 1 percentage point since March 10. Furthermore, a similar percentage of the population, 84%, affirm their belief in Putin’s effective leadership as the head of state,” VTsIOM said.

Putin declared a sweeping victory in the country’s presidential election on March 15-17, taking an unbelievable 87% of the vote on a record turnout.

However, the pollster found a slight dip in trust towards Putin, with 80.7% of participants expressing a positive outlook, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points in a poll of 1,600 adult residents conducted between March 18 and 24, in the midst of which Russia was struck by a brutal terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall shopping mall on March 22 that saw over 140 people die. Nevertheless, the president’s approval rating remains steady at 78.9%, VTsIOM said.

The government under Putin also received mixed reviews, with a 58% approval rating for the government’s job performance, down 3 percentage points from the previous survey a month earlier. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s approval stood at 56%, reflecting a 3 percentage point decrease.

The poll found that the ruling United Russia party enjoyed a 52% support level, witnessing a slight increase of 1 percentage point. Other parties, including the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), saw minor fluctuations in their support levels.

Individual party leaders received varied levels of trust, with KPRF’s Gennady Zyuganov and A Just Russia-For Truth’s Sergey Mironov seeing increases in trust levels, while New People’s Alexey Nechayev experienced a decline.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/04/int ... high-poll/

******

It Is A Well-Known Fact...

... that Obama's uncle liberated Auschwitz, while Western Allies captured Berlin.


МОСКВА, 18 апр — РИА Новости. Посольство России в Берлине получило уведомление о нежелательности участия официальных представителей РФ в памятных мероприятиях по случаю 79-й годовщины освобождения узников концлагерей, заявила официальный представитель МИД РФ Мария Захарова.

Translation: MOSCOW, April 18 – RIA Novosti. The Russian Embassy in Berlin received a notice that it is undesirable for Russian officials to participate in commemorative events on the occasion of the 79th anniversary of the liberation of concentration camp prisoners, said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

There is no need to discuss Zakharova's response, because I write in this blog for 10 years now about unrelenting rewriting and falsifying of history of WW II by the West. E.g. as was noted on many occasions before, professionally respected by me Colonel Macgregor continues to spread what amounts to Nazi propaganda about the Red Army and USSR in WW II having absolutely no background in real history of WW II other than cherry picking dubious (Norman Davis, anyone) sources and anecdotal "evidence" from whatever the environment of Baltic or Ukrainian people he grew up with. I am on record--Russia must repatriate remains of Red Army soldiers buried anywhere in Europe, especially Germany, and remove the monument in Treptower Park and bring it back to Russia. The generation of Western Allies who fought heroically in WW II is pretty much gone now and there is no need in trying to convince the West about who and how defeated Nazism.

Small minority of Europeans who know the truth makes no difference whatsoever in public opinion and they will continue to know anyway because this is what normal people do. The rest, who cares--it is over for the West anyway and the trajectory to oblivion is well defined. The break between Russia and the West is final and, as was pointed out by me on many occasions, a traditional Russophobia of Europeans, always near the surface, was released by Washington and as this proverbial genie it is now out of the bottle. This is THE point--these are not just "elites", this is the majority of population. Modern Western "values" are incompatible with Russian values which are effectively Christian conservative values and NO, so called American "Christian conservatives" are not really conservatives in their outlook.


A move away from conducting financial transactions through Western payment systems, including SWIFT, is vital for Russia and its trading partners, the head of the country’s second-largest lender has said. Speaking on Thursday at the Data Fusion 2024 conference, VTB CEO Andrey Kostin called for the promotion of digital financial settlements in Russia and allied nations. Such a step would end the dominance of the dollar and gain full sovereignty in the financial sector, he claimed. “SWIFT has announced plans to carry out digital payments soon, but we need to kill SWIFT in our settlements, we need to completely get away from it and involve our partners in this as well,” the banking executive insisted, highlighting major work that is being done by the Bank of Russia to achieve the goal. According to Kostin, VTB is currently working on a pilot project to bring the digital ruble into general use, including in cross-border payments.

This is just one sign out of many which testify to an ongoing decoupling of Russia from West's political and economic institutions. Cultural will follow, because true European culture has been already largely transplanted onto Russian soil. Classic and best of modern European culture lives and thrives in Russia. The rest is trash and shouldn't be allowed in. The Iron Curtain is in order and it is Russia now who begins to erect it.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/04 ... -fact.html

These guys...in their 'back at'cha' response to Russophobia would exclude all things Western from Russia, except of course stuff they like such as rock&roll, video games, Hollywood movies. I think this will pass. Of course our Left(wherever it is...) needs to confront this divisive gov/corp 'diversity' scam whose sole purpose is to divide the working class and divert people from class politics.

And boys, if it weren't for Peter The Great Russia would be the balkanized satrapies of the West today.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 10790
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Sun Apr 21, 2024 6:04 pm

MEDUZA: THE PRICE IS RIGHT – WHY RUSSIA’S ECONOMY APPEARS TO BE BOOMING IN THE FACE OF SANCTIONS
APRIL 20, 2024
Meduza, 4/15/24

Last week, Russia’s Finance Ministry released its preliminary report on the federal budget indicators for the first quarter of 2024, revealing results that surpassed expectations. Government earnings soaring above last year’s figures, a surprisingly positive outcome partially attributed to high oil prices and increased consumer spending. With more money in its coffers and the war in Ukraine still raging on, the Russian government is only increasing its spending. However, this upward trend raises concerns about continued inflation. Meduza explains what led to this sudden influx of funds and what economists think about the Russian economy’s outlook.

Why are Russia’s oil and gas revenues up?

In the first quarter of 2024, oil and gas earnings surged by nearly 80 percent compared to the same period in 2023, injecting 2.9 trillion rubles ($31 billion) into Russia’s federal budget. There are a number of factors that led to this sizeable increase. Firstly, oil prices are on the rise. At the beginning of the year, a barrel of Brent crude oil was trading at $80; now, it’s going for more than $90. The U.S. has been replenishing its raw material reserves as OPEC countries cut production, leading to a shortage that’s driven up prices. Furthermore, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has threatened shipments through the Red Sea, raising concerns among investors about potential disruptions to the supply chain. Moreover, Iran, one of the world’s major oil suppliers, has now entered the conflict.

Secondly, Russia has revised its method for calculating the mineral extraction tax (MET). In 2023, revenues were collected based on actual prices for Urals oil, the blend used as the price benchmark for Russian oil exports. However, the returns were unpredictable: discounts on raw materials constantly fluctuated in response to sanctions pressures. Starting this year, there’s a new system in place. If the price difference between Urals oil and Brent isn’t too significant, the authorities still use the actual Urals oil price for tax calculations. However, if the gap widens, the Russian Finance Ministry imposes a maximum discount of $20 per barrel in its calculations. This means that if a barrel of Brent is selling at $100 and a barrel of Urals is selling at $50, the ministry disregards the actual price and levies taxes based on a price of $80 per barrel. This maneuver has proven effective: analyst Kirill Rodionov calculated that at the beginning of last year, the average price used for tax calculations was $51 per barrel. Now, with the new calculations, the average is closer to $70.

The Russian government has also seen an increase in revenues from its quarterly profit-based tax (NDM). Unlike MET, which is paid based on the volume of extracted raw materials, NDM is levied on profits from sales. This allows companies to defer their tax burden until after they’ve become profitable, which, in theory, encourages them to invest in developing new reserves. Likewise, when an oil deposit begins to deplete, the tax starts to drop off, incentivizing companies not to abandon the project. The more companies increase their overall production, the more tax revenue the government stands to make once the companies turn a profit.

When a company transitions to paying NDM, it continues to pay MET, albeit at a heavily reduced rate. Nevertheless, due to the advantages of tax deferral, the profit margins for certain companies remain higher under the combined scheme than when paying only MET at the full rate. Russia has been steadily expanding this profit-based tax regime, growing its share of the federal budget’s oil and gas revenue from 9 percent to 52 percent over the last five years. According to Rodionov’s calculations, federal revenue from NDM went from 211 billion rubles ($2.3 billion) in the first quarter of 2023 to 587 billion rubles ($6.3 billion) in the first quarter of 2024.

The Finance Ministry’s report also highlights a one-time revenue boost from a temporary increase in the MET rate mandated in January 2024. In the fall of 2023, the Russian government halved damper payments, a type of subsidy that compensates oil companies for selling fuel on the domestic market. Unsurprisingly, this led to a sharp increase in gas prices in Russia. The government quickly abolished the unsuccessful reform but decided to compensate for the damper payments through a higher MET.

Since Russian tax legislation doesn’t allow for MET to be applied retroactively, a higher MET rate was imposed on companies in January of this year, allowing the Finance Ministry to make up for last fall’s budget losses. Although the report doesn’t disclose the exact amount, Interfax’s sources estimated it at around 190 billion rubles ($2 billion).

The ruble’s depreciation could also have impacted the statistics. At the beginning of 2023, the Russian ruble was stronger, trading at around 70 to the U.S. dollar, meaning fewer rubles for every dollar of oil earnings, notes Evgeny Nadorshin, the lead economist at PF Capital. The ruble weakening to 90 to the dollar automatically led to an increase in budget revenues from oil sold abroad.

Taking all of these factors into account, Russia’s Finance Ministry predicted that oil and gas revenues will continue to exceed the baseline level, saying it observes a “stable positive trend.”

Where else is the money coming from?

While government earnings from oil and gas have certainly gone up, Egor Susin, the managing director at Gazprombank Private Banking, highlights other revenue streams as the primary positive contributors to the budget. Over the course of a year, non-oil and gas revenues have risen by 43 percent, bringing in 5.8 trillion rubles ($62 billion) in the first quarter alone.

The Finance Ministry attributed much of these gains to turnover taxes: taxes levied on the volume of business activity or turnover of goods and services rather than on profits. For instance, value-added tax (VAT), brought in 3.4 trillion rubles ($36.3 billion) in three months. Russia is experiencing a growth in domestic demand, as analysts at Raiffeisen Bank have pointed out, and consumer spending is increasing despite inflation.

As a rule, Russia’s Central Bank sees high demand as a risk for further inflation. For the Finance Ministry, however, the situation is beneficial — at least in the short term. While the government’s budget also suffers due to inflation (e.g. with the cost of infrastructure projects going up), the ministry can acquire funds immediately and then distribute the rise in expenses over time.

The ministry also mentions “planned receipts of one-time non-tax revenues.” Generally speaking, “non-tax revenue” refers to things like fees for the use of state property, customs duties, environmental levies, and so on. It’s possible that in this case, the ministry is referring to the sale of state-owned assets. In 2023, the Russian authorities initially aimed to generate 1.8 billion rubles ($19.2 million) through privatization. However, due to urgent budgetary needs, they ultimately sold off 29 billion rubles ($309.7 million) worth of property. This year, the ministry has set a significantly higher target from the outset: selling 100 billion rubles ($1.07 billion) worth of state-owned assets.

Although the Finance Ministry acknowledged that last year’s low baseline facilitated such noticeable growth, it views the current situation with non-oil and gas revenues as stable and anticipates “continued rapid revenue growth.” Raiffeisen Bank analysts concurred, predicting that consumer activity in Russia will likely remain high “in the coming months.”

Will Russia start spending more?

The Russian government has already ramped up its spending. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, budgetary expenses have increased by 20 percent.

With the onset of the full-scale war in Ukraine, federal budget expenditures acquired a pronounced seasonality, rising sharply at the beginning of the year when the government pays out advances on state contracts. In the first two months of 2024 alone, expenditures amounted to 6.5 trillion rubles ($69.4 billion) while revenues totaled only five trillion ($53.4 billion), resulting in the Finance Ministry nearly exhausting the deficit limit for the entire year. Last year, the same trend raised concerns; in the end, however, the deficit didn’t stray too far from the target.

With current oil prices, Russia’s situation has already begun to improve. While the first quarter saw an overall deficit, March’s budget boasted a surplus of 860 billion ($9.2 billion). Analysts from Raiffeisen Bank say the Russian government’s spending spree at the beginning of the year “shouldn’t be perceived as a risk factor” to the budget. According to their forecasts, the deficit will remain this year, but it will be smaller than in 2023: no more than 2.5 trillion as opposed to last year’s 3.2 trillion ($26.7 billion versus $34.2 billion, respectively). Analyst Semyon Novoprudsky thinks the deficit could be even lower, despite the increase in government spending.

The budget for the current year includes expenditures totaling 36.6 trillion rubles ($390.9 billion). However, this figure was approved before President Vladimir Putin announced five new national projects and numerous other social welfare programs during his annual address to Russia’s Federal Assembly. Economists estimated the cost of their implementation at 1.2 trillion ($12.9 billion) per year. This will be likely offset by tax increases, which, just a month ago, was raising concerns among economists.

Now, analysts from the Telegram channel MMI posit that “with current oil prices, there’s no threat to deficit stability.” Egor Susin from Gazprombank concurs, saying that “the budget appears to be in good shape for the next few months.” Faridaily, run by journalists Farida Rustamova and Maxim Tovkailo, predicts that the Russian government “will be able to finance extravagant military spending, social payments, and infrastructure development without any problems.” Meduza couldn’t find any pessimistic comments from experts.

So, Russia’s economy is just fine?

There are certainly still risks for the Russian economy. In theory, an increase in revenue allows the Finance Ministry to spend more than planned — as it did last year. This injects more money into the economy, further fueling consumer demand in the face of limited supply. Russia’s Central Bank consistently stresses that this has adverse effects on price inflation. And while it aims to keep inflation at 4–4.5 percent in 2024, economists have expressed doubts that this target is feasible.

Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank, has noted that maintaining a high key rate helps curb inflation. (Currently, the Central Bank has the key rate set at 16 percent.) With interest rates higher, saving becomes more attractive and credit becomes more expensive, which, in turn, cools demand. In the second half of the year, the Central Bank plans to wait for a slowdown in price growth and then begin to reduce the key rate; however, it might postpone the process. Previously, analysts at the government-owned bank Promsvyazbank expected the key rate to be brought down as early as June; now, they’re predicting a decrease no sooner than August.

Increasing budget expenditures also heighten risks for the national currency exchange rate. The Finance Ministry supports Russian businesses by providing them with funds for production, which often requires imported components and equipment. This means companies have more capital to purchase foreign currency for such transactions. Russia’s Economic Development Ministry officially predicts that the average exchange rate for this year will hover around 90 rubles to the U.S. dollar. However, SberCIB Investment Research predicts the ruble will weaken to 95 against the dollar by the second quarter, while the Moscow-based investment company Tsifra Broker expects the exchange rate to hit 100 rubles to the dollar by the end of April.

Government spending won’t be the only influence on this, of course. The overall state of Russian exports will also impact the ruble: declining overseas shipments of raw materials are reducing foreign currency inflow, creating a deficit. Meanwhile, the population is buying more and more dollars and euros. In February, Russians spent 100 billion rubles (the equivalent of $1 billion) on these currencies; in March, that figure rose to 155 billion ($1.66 billion).

The situation may worsen if sanctions on Russian oil begin to take effect. So far, both lax monitoring and loopholes involving third-party sales have largely enabled Russia to bypass the G7 and E.U.-imposed $60 “price cap” on Russian crude oil. Even so, G7 nations have yet to propose an alternative to the price cap; they’ve only threatened to lower it even further. And while Western governments have imposed sanctions on a few companies for circumventing the ban, such measures are not widespread.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/04/med ... sanctions/

(They work hard to find a downside...)

BEN ARIS: RUSSIA COULD PAY OFF ITS ENTIRE EXTERNAL DEBT TOMORROW, IN CASH
APRIL 20, 2024 NATYLIESB
By Ben Aris, Intellinews, 3/30/24

Russia external debt has been falling steadily and reached $326.6bn in December 2023, compared with $322.3bn in the previous quarter and $383.6bn at the end of 2022. It could pay the entire amount off tomorrow – in cash. (chart)

The Kremlin has been paying off its external debt. Low external debt means Russia doesn’t need to tap international capital markets so is not vulnerable to any sort of sanctions on bond issues, which are easy to apply and enforce.

Coupled with Russia’s strong current account surplus, which was up to $5.2bn in February from $4.5bn in January, thanks to high oil prices, Russia can fund itself easily on this profit. (chart)

At the same time gross international reserves have been rising and are now hovering around $600bn at the end of the first quarter. Half of these reserves are frozen. About $150bn are in monetary gold (up from $135bn pre-war) and the rest in yuan.

Even counting out the frozen funds, Russia can cover its external debt dollar for dollar with cash, whereas everyone in the West is massively leveraged, including the Ukraine where the debt-to-GDP ratio is almost at 100%.

It is these rock-solid fundamentals – no one else in world has even remotely similar metrics – which is the essence of Putin’s Fiscal Fortress. It is a ridiculously strong basis, which means even if the West manages to reduce Russia income from oil and gas exports, it will still have a massive amount of wiggle room.

And its ongoing commodity exports to the global south mean that it will continue to enjoy the raw materials subsidy for its economy. Because of their external debt (USA, Italy, much of G7, everyone in Africa and even China) everyone else is a lot more vulnerable to a global slow down. Russia is probably currently the least vulnerable on a macro fundamentals basis.

Russia’s external debt $bn

Russia’s current account $bn

Having said that, MinFin is increasingly turning to the OFZ domestic T-bill market to fund the deficit – expected to be RUB1.6 trillion year, down from RUB3.4 trillion last year, or 0.8% of GDP and 1.9% of GDP respectively.

Pre-war MinFin used to issue around RUB2 trillion (c$20bn) of OFZ a year, and most of them on a very long maturity of up to 20 years. Yields on these bonds were a hansom 6-7% and foreign investors poured in to buy billions of dollars’ worth.

Post-war of course those foreigners have left with non-rez share falling from a peak of c34% to c7% now. (chart) Moreover, the cost of this borrowing has gone up as yields have risen to c14%. So, this is relatively expensive borrowing.

Moreover, the volumes issued have gone up dramatically. In an underreported story Siluanov said at the start of last year MinFin planned to issue about RUB1.5 trillion of OFZ but ended up issuing RUB2.5 trillion. (It would have been more, but oil prices recovered in Q4).

The plan for this year, at the start of last year, was also for RUB1.5 trillion, but in December Siluanov was already talking about RUB4 trillion – that is almost double pre-war levels. And the $3-6bn of annual Eurobond issues has also obviously stopped.

The total outstanding OFZ has doubled to cRUB20 trillion (chart) since the pandemic started when Russia spent around 3% of GDP on economic relief (globally a very low level). You can see issues jumped again since the war started and total outstanding is now cRUB20 trillion (c$200bn). So, the debt situation is not quite as rosy as first appears.

Still, even $200bn worth of outstanding domestic debt is not bad at all. Firstly there is a pool of some RUB19 trillion of liquidity in the banking sector so again all this debt can be covered in cash by domestic resources.

Secondly, £200bn is about 10% of GDP, so even this borrowing is extremely modest by developed economy standards and easily managed.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/04/ben ... w-in-cash/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Mon Apr 22, 2024 3:20 pm

THE 3,000TH DANCE WITH BEARS

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

The first Dance with Bears appeared twenty-two years ago. It began as a short commentary appearing once or twice a week. The title came from Astolphe de Custine, the greatest observer of Russia ever to be obliged to conceal what he was writing inside his hat, as the Russians he was writing about chased him across the frontier. That circumstance made for pithy style, sharp focus.

In 1839 de Custine had written: “Such ill-bred and yet well-informed, well-dressed, clever, and self-confident Russians are trained bears, the sight of which inclines me to regret the wild ones: they have not yet become polished men, and they are already spoiled savages.” His book drew denunciations in the Russian press at the time, and was banned in Russia until 1996.

One of the subtlest – make that most duplicitous and cowardly of Russia-fighters among Americans — the State Department official George Kennan wrote that de Custine had produced “the best guide to Russia ever written”, and then proceeded to argue that when de Custine referred to Tsar Nicholas I, Kennan meant the same judgements to apply to Joseph Stalin and his heirs.

Like most of what Kennan wrote for his own circle of spoiled savages, he was half-right, half-wrong – make that, mostly wrong. In 1991, twenty years after Kennan had pontificated about de Custine, the collapse of the communist regime in Moscow released forces which had been under control, more or less, for seventy years. This allowed the savages to revert to the type de Custine had observed. Kennan and his successors called that democracy and did more than applaud. Look where that has got them now.

The first thousandth Dance with Bears appeared on January 24, 2012; the second thousandth on October 6, 2017. Allowing for the Moscow summer and New Year holidays, and breaks for May Day and Victory over the Germans, the pieces have been appearing at a rate of three per week. Attacks by enemies aiming to destroy a particular story of unwelcome truths or obliterate the entire archive are common; their sources, methods and motives vary. The full archive can be followed on the right-hand column of the home page.

A very serious City of London banker, who subscribed in order to compile a profile of his Russian clients for debate on his bank’s Risk Committee, once advised that the lead cartoon should be dropped because, he said, this was no place for laughing. Soldiers and spies, some of them in retirement, advised that the punchline in the cartoon said as much as the text.

An album of the punchiest of the pictures was published in 2021; the targets have included the Turkish president, the Polish foreign minister, the Ukrainian deputy prime minister of Canada, a succession of meretricious presidents of the US and France, prime ministers of Greece, Cyprus, Germany, the Netherlands, etc. The time to write this is also taking its toll on the cartoon that was me twenty years ago (below, left) and now (centre).
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According to a learned professor in the US, the book is a “very erudite political analysis and very funny”; a learned professor in Portugal has concurred: “best politically incorrect satire about the West's reporting on Russia”. Reader opinion differs on whether these Dances with Bears make “the best non-Russian journalist in Russia” or “the best writing in English on Russia”. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has acknowledged grudgingly by declaring me persona non grata in 2010 and in 2023 barring me from accompanying my wife’s body to her grave in Siberia. Click to read the book.

Foretasting of what the long read of the Dances with Bears has to discover is the purpose of the accompanying Twitter stream, which began in June 2019. The 10,000th follower has punched his ticket this week.

My focus has been to pick out more than one bear; rarely the top one or two. Observing carefully their fancy footwork is a better guide to these Russians than reporting what they have been paying the dance band to play. Also, until the musicians pack up, I’m not so sure what the party means for those who have attended, and for the rest of world looking on.

At the time I started the column in Ajay Goyal’s Russia Journal, it was competing in the English-language market in Moscow with the Moscow Times, then a property of Derk Sauer and his Dutch, Russian,and secret associates. By then, the third rival in the market, the Moscow Tribune, a creation of Anthony Louis, had gone belly-up.

I’ve written for all three as reporter and essayist. I was ousted from the Times after seven months of 1992 by the then editor, Meg Bortin, an American who had next to no acquaintance with Russia, except for the phrase, “the Communist-controlled”, which she attached to a great many nouns in reports I filed. When I objected that the fact was often untrue and the practice ill-advised, Bortin tried the other editing tactic for which she was well-known in the newsroom at the time. To call that hysteria was politically incorrect – Bortin eventually found her sanatorium at the International Herald Tribune. She then wrote a memoir called Desperate to be a Communist-Controlled Housewife, in which she claims to have been a founding editor of the Times. She wasn’t – shrieekkk.

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Left, Meg Bortin; right, Derk Sauer.

Sauer paid me a monthly stipend not to appear in a competing newspaper in Moscow for six months. Then in 1993 I joined Anthony Louis, who was suspected of being soft on Russia on account of his relationship to Victor Louis his father, a Soviet journalist who had been suspected in his turn of being a front-man for the KGB. Louis junior over-compensated, employing as his deputy Janice Cowan, a Canadian of English origin. She has since admitted serving as a part-time spy for the Canadian special services with whom her husband was also employed under diplomatic cover. Her memoir is already out; it’s called A Spy’s Wife.

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Left: Victor Louis, right: Janice Cowan. As Canadian journalists go, Cowan was as diminutive in stature as Chrystia Freeland, accredited then to the Financial Times; of the two, Cowan was the more ethical. For a valuable biography of Victor Louis, and how journalists (some of them) get rich on Russia, read Jean-Christophe Emmenegger, Victor Louis. Un agent très spécial (2021), reviewed here.

The Exile was the fourth English-language newspaper appearing in Moscow during the 1990s, edited by Americans Mark Ames and Matt Taibbi. They provided a weekly guide to Moscow’s sex joints and a semi-annual guide to the worst journalism on Russia produced in English by the foreign press corps. There was an overlap when the New York Times bureau chief, the Murdoch hacks, or the man from The Economist would show off their heads between their buttocks. The Exile attacked by calling me a curmudgeon; covering up the size of my sex organs; and tossing me out of the Worst Journalist Tournament in the first round. Bastards.

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When we were young: left, Matt Taibbi and Mark Ames at Teatralnaya Metro in 1995; right, Oleg Deripaska apologizes for trying to assassinate me in December 2009. To his undying credit, Taibbi publicly accepted what the Moscow police and court reports revealed about the assassination attempt, when most members of the domestic and foreign press corps in Moscow at the time were bribed or intimidated into silence.

As a subject Russia is the only case I know of in which the clinical symptoms of horniness present themselves after orgasm, not before it. This is visible when foreign correspondents publish books about Russia after they have left the country, sponsored by the book-publishing arms of their newspapers, and fired up by their own book review pages to ensure sales and profit.

Sauer was shocked when he discovered one day that Ajay Goyal and I had gone to Haarlem, in the Netherlands, to arrange a buy-out of his newspaper with Sauer’s control shareholder. Then then editor of the Moscow Times secretly asked for a meeting to present his availability in the event we managed to pull off the raid. We didn’t. But to fight us Sauer begged money off two Russian oligarchs, a pack of nasty Finns, Pearsons of London, and Dow Jones of New York.

Instead of them, Dances with Bears has gone solo, cheered on by the crowd you see around the birthday cake. Here is how it started on March 15, 2002 – the very first dance.

WHO CAN YOU TRUST IN RUSSIA?

The only foreign-language sentence that managed to lodge itself correctly in the brain of Ronald Reagan, before he developed Alzheimer’s Disease but after he became President of the United States, was “doveryai no proveryai”. As he never tired of explaining, that is Russian for “trust but verify.”

Reagan and his successors always meant to apply that to treaties on arms deployments and limitations. Bankers and other businessmen mean to apply it to every form of financial or commercial contract that can be signed with Russian counterparties, especially since the government and the leading commercial banks defaulted on their obligations in 1998.

“Trust but verify” is the reason most foreign investment agreements with Russians contain a clause that places the jurisdiction for dispute resolution outside Russia in countries like Sweden, the United Kingdom, or the US. It is also the reason why both Russians and foreigners, who have lost assets and money to Russian raiders, are increasingly turning to the US court system to apply the US racketeering statute, with its triple damages clause. Among the Russian corporations now in the dock facing racketeering charges, there is LUKoil, Russian Aluminum, Alfa Bank, and Tyumen Neftegas. The list is growing fast.

Back when Reagan was getting out his bit of Russian, John Le Carre published a novel called “The Russia House”. It’s a tale about a Scotsman and minor publisher, whom British intelligence, then the CIA, use to obtain secrets from a high-level Soviet military scientist. The go-between is Katya Orlova; but the Scotsman falls in love with her. To save her, he has to dupe his British and American handlers, and make a deal with the KGB.

In the film version, Sean Connery playing the Scotsman tells a panel of KGB officers, after he’s delivered the secrets of the Anglo-American team: “We have a deal, and I expect you to honour that deal. I am talking about honour, not ideology.” The climax of the film comes when Michelle Pfeiffer, playing Katya, steps off a Russian boat and into Connery’s arms, proving that Russians honour their commitments, even if westerners don’t.

Fast forward to a new film version of a similar moral predicament. This is the new release called “Birthday Girl”, in which Nicole Kidman plays Nadia. She is a Russian girl who answers a lonely English banker’s request for a mail-order bride, and establishes herself in his home. John the banker is then set up by Nadia, and two Russian accomplices, who move into the house, and use John to steal 90,000 pounds from his own bank, before making
their getaway.

“Don’t feel too bad”, Yuri, the mastermind of the scam, tells John after gagging and tying him up. He then shows him photographs of all the other western men Nadia and her gang have duped. But that isn’t the end of the tale. John pursues the trio, who start fighting among themselves over the money. Having betrayed John, Nadia then betrays her accomplices, taking all the money for herself — and also, it seems, for John. With Nadia and the money, he climbs on board the return flight to Moscow, improbably equipped with a Russian passport in the name of one of the accomplices. What will happen to John at Sheremetyevo isn’t of interest to the filmmakers, who think they have tied up their flick with a happy ending in midair. We can guess what the airport officers will do to John on arrival — and what Nadia will do once she’s home.

In the new film, there’s a lot of talk about love, as there was in the earlier film. But not a word about honour. What a difference the decade between the two films makes, at least to the image of Russian women, and Russian honour.

In that decade I’ve known many Russian women, including one who was the wickedest individual of any gender I’ve known. As a general rule, in the decade between “The Russia House” and “Birthday Girl” it has turned out that Russian women lost their honour, as did the other gender, as well as almost every type of Russian organization from the KGB on up, or down, depending on your point of view. The dishonouring process has been so thorough, you have to wonder whether it was a mistake to imagine it, when Le Carre thought so, in the Soviet period. We have arrived at a time when Russian dishonour is a topic for comedy; and honour in the old fashioned sense is laughable.

The honour of Joes (spy jargon) and Johns (sex business) may be misplaced enough to amuse. But of course, bankers to Russia can’t afford the luxury. When one of the largest banks in the world decided (this month) that it won’t even review the state of the Russian metals sector, because it doesn’t want to lend any money to the companies that occupy it, that suggests how fundamentally flawed the methodology of trust-and-verify has become. After all, Russian metals producers are among the market leaders and price makers of the world. If western bankers judge they can’t trust them, because they can’t verify their financials, then the small sums of credit that are trickling through on short-run, high-price terms won’t be anywhere near enough to sustain the growth and competitive edge which these producers need.

This is no joke, unless Russian metals producers think they can outlive their bankers. Now that’s funny.


Note: Key to the celebration (from left to right): Igor Zyuzin, Mikhail Prokhorov, Gennady Timchenko, Oleg Deripaska, Patriarch Kirill, Sergei Frank, Radoslav Sikorski, Igor Sechin, Alexei Kudrin, Leonid Lebedev. Today some of them are in exile in the US or Israel; Sikorski is once again Poland’s foreign minister. The book of 2018, The Man Who Knows Too Much about Russia, told the story of the trouble Oleg Deripaska tried to cause me, culminating in an abortive assassination plot and my explusion from Russia. The book of 2023, Sovcomplot, was an adventure on the high seas with Sergei Frank; he tried to have me expelled from Russia for many years; Deripaska beat him to it. The rollicking ended on July 13, 2023, when Tatiana Turitsyna, my wife, lost her life. The three men who murdered her are being prosecuted.

https://johnhelmer.net/the-3000th-dance ... more-89771

******

The Hegemon’s ‘K-Device’: Tajiks in the Crosshairs
APRIL 21, 2024

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Heavily armed fighters (center) with a map of Central Asia in the background and a photo of the shouters in the Crocus Moscow terrorist attack and a US flag. Photo: Al Mayadeen illustration by Zeinab El-Hajj.

Why were Tajiks recently picked to act as terrorists and by whom?

By Tariq Marzbaan – Apr 20, 2024

Immediately after the attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, Western politicians and media pointed the finger at “ISIS” (DAESH) in unison. “ISIS” then immediately disseminated an implausible photo claiming responsibility for the attack.

Although the perpetrators were all proven to be Tajik nationals, the Russian government and security authorities claim that it was Ukraine and its Western supporters (USA, UK, NATO) who planned and coordinated the attacks. Not only are there already clear indications supporting this claim, but the security authorities say they also have the evidence to back it up.

For obvious reasons, the West clings to its own version – that everything was planned and executed by “ISIS” – more specifically by “ISIS-K” / “DAESH Khorasan”. This version not only seeks to absolve them completely of any involvement, it also cements the main objective of the attack… which ultimately exposes them as the masterminds.

Tajikistan, a profitable target on the geopolitical battlefield
Tajikistan suffers from poverty and high unemployment, especially among the younger generation, hence the large number of migrant workers in Russia. These workers send their hard-earned money to their families in Tajikistan, and the Tajik economy (its GDP) benefits from these remittances.

Tajikistan (as well as the rest of Central Asia and Afghanistan) has always been a target on the geopolitical battlefield. Immediately after the collapse of the USSR, the Saudis and other Gulf Arab states spent enormous sums to destabilise Tajik society for their own interests by infiltrating the entire region ideologically (with religious extremism, Wahhabism, and Salafism).

The extent to which President Emomali Rahman has ultimately “cleansed” Tajikistan of its Islamist extremist elements or integrated them into society is not known, but he has succeeded in establishing a secular state and a secular society in Tajikistan. This could not have happened without a crackdown on religious extremism. This is also the reason why the “virtuous West” and its “free” media repeatedly reproach the Tajik president and label him as an authoritarian, dictator, despot, etc., without taking into account the specifics of the country and the circumstances.

Nevertheless, widespread poverty, corruption and nepotism, economic deprivation and dependence on money transfers from labour migrants – especially from Russia – still prevail in Tajikistan today. And unemployed migrants who return from Russia (disenchanted for whatever reason) are an ideal target for recruitment by terrorist organisations.

According to the father of one of the perpetrators of the Crocus Attack, Dalerjon Mirzoev, his son was not religious, never went to the mosque, and drank alcohol. But for money (allegedly $10,000) he was ready to kill people.

Recent moves of the Hegemon on the Central Asian Chessboard
As early as 2010 (the same year that the negotiations with the Taleban began in Doha), the US “Deep State” is said to have already anticipated a military confrontation with Russia (and subsequently with China) in the near future… The confrontation with Russia would take place through proxies, not directly. Ukraine was chosen as the combative force and the EU as the logistical base. To this end, the USA invested in Ukraine covertly for many years, and directly and openly since 2014.

The US top brass began working on their withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the transfer of power to the Taleban – for two main reasons. First, they felt that, in their absence, those running the government in Kabul (Ghani, Karzai and consorts), would be unsuitable to represent and advance their interests. Secondly, they reckoned the “war” in Ukraine would be costly and that the US Congress would never agree to provide large sums for both Ukraine and Afghanistan projects at the same time; they would therefore have to part with the first “dollar drain” (Afghanistan) in order to finance the second one (Ukraine).

But there was a deeper reason for the US retreat: As long as their forces were in Afghanistan, they would have to be responsible for security in Afghanistan and in the region – i.e. Iran, Central Asia and China… which meant they would not be able to use Afghanistan as an incubator for terrorist groups, which could be deployed against neighbouring countries, as well as against Russia and China. But… an Afghanistan in the hands of fanatic fundamentalists (the Taleban) and other Islamist terrorist groups from neighbouring countries – that would easily provide a suitable breeding ground…

In fact, many observers of the Doha negotiations between the US and the Taleban believe that this objective was a substantial negotiating point in the secret treaty that was eventually signed. However, after the staged US departure and the Taleban takeover, it became clear that the Taleban were (at least so far) unprepared and unwilling to provide such a function directly. Moreover, the Iranians, Russians, and Chinese have been holding a watchful eye over them.

On the other hand, after the Taleban took power, armed resistance groups from the Tajik population of Afghanistan began to form and threaten the regime. While all neighbouring states and others in the region began to interact and even cooperate with Taleban (without officially recognising them), Tajikistan – which supported the political leadership of the so-called “national resistance” against the Taleban – allowed these groups to set up an office in Dushanbe.

The US made it abundantly clear, however, that it would not support any resistance against the Taleban.



Why Tajiks were picked to carry out the recent terrorist actions
As mentioned earlier, poverty and unemployment have long prevailed amongst the younger generation in Tajikistan.

Gulf states and Pakistan had done much in the 1990s to propagate extremist ideas in Tajikistan, the consequences of which led to civil war.

Around 200 Tajiks are said to have fought on the side of DAESH/ISIS in Syria. Most of them were recruited from Tajik migrants in Russia.

Ever since the Taleban takeover in August 2021, there has been talk of the presence of “DAESH” in Afghanistan – which the Taleban are allegedly combatting tooth and nail – while Afghan observers of events speak of the presence of CIA-linked special forces in Badakhshan (a province in the Pamir highlands divided between Afghanistan and Tajikistan and one of the poorest regions in both countries), where ISIS terrorists who escaped from Syrian prisons are also suspected. (See: “Raqqa’s dirty secret“)

The Taleban in Afghanistan claim they successfully fought DAESH and eliminated all their cells. Nonetheless, they reported occasional clashes with DAESH adherents… but it is not clear whether these targets were really DAESH terrorists or whether the Taleban were just using “DAESH” as a pretext to eliminate their real adversaries (mainly Tajiks from the north and the Panjshir valley).

Those familiar with the Taleban in Afghanistan and the region point out that DAESH has long been integrated into the Taleban Haqqani group, which can be seen as an extension of the Pakistani ISI… and hence of the CIA and MI6.

“DAESH-Khorasan”/”ISIS K” is ultimately a phantom, a ghost entity in the region in whose name any kind of perfidy can be carried out… a creation for all seasons and for all kinds of dirty work.

In addition, the appellation “DAESH-K”, which aims to emphasise Tajik affiliation, serves to legitimise the Taleban in Afghanistan and discredit the resistance of the Tajiks struggling against the Taleban.

The Crocus Attack – An intended double whammy for Russia
The Russian Federation has allegedly around 3 million Tajiks working as labour migrants.

As we now know, the four main perpetrators of the brutal attack on the Crocus City Hall were Tajik… and so were many of their accomplices.

Xenophobic “ultra-nationalists” – fortunately a minority in Russia – have used the Crocus attack for their ideological and political goals, and are demanding that all migrants be expelled from Russia: “Tajiks to Tajikistan!” and “Russia for the “Russians”.

In the days following the attack, there were reports of Russian citizens cancelling taxi rides when they learned that the drivers were from Tajikistan. A number of migrant workers complained of harassment and expressed fears of being attacked, leading to an exodus of migrant workers from the Russian Federation.

Commenting on the consequences of the terrorist attack in Moscow, the Secretary General of the CSTO, Imangali Tasmagambetov, warned that measures leading to pressure on labour migrants from Central Asian countries would trigger a mass exodus.

Suppose Russia were to lose all or almost all Tajiks and labour migrants from Russia altogether… What would that incur?

According to data on the “national composition” of Russia 2024, based on a 2020 census, the current population of Russia is 147,182,123, of whom 130,587,364 or 88.73 per cent are of Russian national origin. Registered Tajiks living in Russia numbered 350,236. And yet according to an expert on migration, as reported by Sputnik in June 2023, in 2022 Tajik migrants numbered about 3.1 million out of more than 9.5 million migrants (which include ca. 4.9 million Uzbeks and 1 million Kyrgyz citizens. And, according to the Ministry of Labour of Tajikistan, in 2023, out of 652,000 labour migrants, more than 627,000 Tajiks went to the Russian Federation.

At the 12th Congress of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions, President Putin avowed that in the near future, “the Russian economy will experience a high demand and even a shortage of personnel. We must understand this, and we will have to live with this in the coming years.”

What would happen to the burgeoning Russian economy if it lost 627,000 labour migrants? What would become of all that indispensable labour force?

In such a case, Russia would not only face an economic disaster… but – and this would be the second blow – it would also be exposed to more dangers from beyond its borders: the numerous young Tajiks ousted from Russia returning to Tajikistan would inevitably face destitution and become easy prey for “DAESH & Co”.

By having Tajik and other Central Asian migrants expelled from Russia, xenophobic ultranationalists would be fulfilling the wish of the Western terror masterminds by supplying them with mass recruits.

As such, the very selection of Tajiks as perpetrators for the Crocus attack is very much part of the main objective of the West’s “Divide and Conquer” strategy: to sow distrust and discord amongst Russia’s multinational population, which would lead to destabilisation and possibly civil war.

Tajikistan: A land of downtrodden people and Russia’s geopolitical Achilles heel…
There is another aspect with regard to Russia’s complex connection with Tajikistan: Russian special forces are stationed in Tajikistan; Tajikistan borders on Talebanised Afghanistan in the south… And no one knows what the Taleban’s position toward Tajikistan and Russia will be in the future: amicable or hostile (the latter being preferable to Transatlanticists).

But it is the traumas of the past that have not been resolved… that present a serious stumbling block.

The “Tajiks” in Central Asia – a Persian-speaking people, who have lived in the Khorasan region in the Iranian highlands for thousands of years – are a downtrodden people. Until the 18th century, the whole of Central Asia remained in its own centuries-old encapsulated realm, undisturbed by the Western outside world… that is, until colonialism came knocking at the gates – first the Russian variant, then the British. Then, in the 19th century, a bitter struggle broke out between the two colonial powers for control of the region. Ultimately, with the consent of Russia, the British managed to establish a buffer zone between the two colonial powers by partitioning Iran and creating a state that was later to be called “Afghanistan” – at the expense of the Tajik population on both sides of the Amu Darya (Oxus). The Tajik population was incorporated into the Russian Turkestan Governor-Generalship (around 1900) under the Tsarist Empire.

With the emergence of the Soviet Union and the international recognition of “Afghanistan” as a Pashtun state, the separation of the Tajik people became definitive. The Tajiks north of the Oxus were integrated into the Soviet state of Tajikistan, while the Tajiks in the south, in “Afghanistan” had to resign themselves to Pashtun rule. Joseph Stalin then drew new borders and bestowed the two large Tajik centres (cities) “Samarqand” and “Bukhara”, upon the Soviet Republic of “Uzbekistan”, in accordance with the colonialist maxim “Divide and Conquer”. The shift from the Persian script to the Cyrillic alphabet (in the 1920s), ultimately destroyed the Iranian-Persian connection to the Tajik people and their identity, thereby alienating the Persian-speaking Tajiks from their history, culture, and roots – which was, of course, intended.

This damaged identity is one of the main contributing factors to the success of the “re-Islamisation” of segments of the population since the 1990s, when the Gulf states – above all Saudi Arabia – and the NGOs linked to Western secret services literally flooded Central Asia, including Tajikistan, with a lot of money and offered the peoples Wahhabi and Salafi extremist ideologies as a replacement for their lost identities.

Nowhere else in Central Asian states has this aggressive religious extremism found such fertile ground as in Tajikistan. After the Taleban takeover in Afghanistan, the phantom known as “DAESH-Khorasan”/”ISIS K” is now haunting the region.

Following the terrorist attack in Moscow, Western politicians and their NATO media are trying to establish this phantom as a veritable terrorist organisation in the region, branding Tajikistan as the home of “ISIS-Khorasan” in the public opinion in the world. It is by now also clear that “asymmetric warfare” – that is, terrorism – is the last and desperate recourse of a flailing, declining Hegemon.

As far as the emerging configuration of the geopolitical chessboard is concerned, we will hear and see a lot more about this spectre in the future, because it seems that the virtuous West intends to open a new front against the Axis of Resistance (Russia, China, Iran) in Central Asia with the help of this “DAESH-K”.

And thus, Afghanistan and Tajikistan – Khorasan – will once again live up to their reputation as the eternal battlefields.

https://orinocotribune.com/the-hegemons ... rosshairs/
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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Tue Apr 23, 2024 3:18 pm

A NASTY LITTLE BOOK ABOUT THE ALLIED INVASION OF RUSSIA IN 1918 IS A NASTY BIG LESSON FOR NOW

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

In the last war which the Americans, British, and French fought against the Russians, they were all defeated and forced to run away. Now it’s happening again.

But if Anna Reid, author of a new history of the Allied powers’ invasion of Russia and war against the Bolsheviks, titles her book “A Nasty Little War” (lead image, left), what title does Reid give to the present war which the Doughboy alliance is losing for the second time? A Nasty Big War doesn’t quite do their plan for destroying Russia enough justice, does it? A Nasty Little Defeat followed by a Nasty Big Defeat comes closer to the truth, but Reid has written her book in the conviction that it will not and must not come to that again.

One hundred and six years since the Russia Intervention of 1918-20 is long enough for Reid to conclude with one of her contemporary British officer sources: “‘Of course it could not possibly be otherwise. But it is unfortunate that events worked out as they did.’ It could have been the epitaph for the whole Intervention,” Reid adds from the British point of view, then but not now.

“So ends a not very creditable enterprise”, she quotes from a report on the desk of British Foreign Secretary Lord Curzon in April 1920. Curzon then crossed out “not very” and wrote in “highly dis”.

Reid is so certain this is not the lesson of today’s allied war against Russia she declares her conclusion at the very beginning of her book. “There is no simple read-across from the Intervention. Today’s war is not a civil one, and the impressive and staunchly democratic Ukrainians are not the inept, revanchist Whites. The lazy lesson from 1918-20 – that Western meddling in the region failed then, and will again now – is completely mistaken. If the Intervention does have something to teach, it is that Putin will fail for the same reason the Whites did: because he underestimates the desire for freedom of the non-Russian nations…”

This declaration is at page 10. Reid’s history runs on for another 350 pages of the same.

Reid cannot bring herself to introduce or mention the Russian president by his full name. He first appears, first name-less, on page 9 “as Putin’s Russia attempts to reconquer its thirty-years independent Ukraine.” Felix Dzerzhinsky, Bolshevik head of intelligence, is more fortunate with Reid. He gets his full name, but Reid adds: “the weasel-faced psychopath in charge of the Cheka”. Dangerous adjectives, weasel-faced psychopaths in glass houses with hands full of them.

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Left, Anna Reid, illustrated by https://www.historynet.com/ Right: Felix Dzerzhinsky.

Reid has similar tongue trouble with how to identify the Russians in the war by name. She repeatedly refers to them as “the enemy”, because the war diaries and operation reports of the British commanders she was reporting described them so at the time. Their soldiers called them “Bolos” or “Russkis” if they were men; if they were women, they used fonder terms. These men did not want to fight – there were mutinies by the Quebec infantry in the Canadian force, as well as in US, French, and British units. More committed to killing Russians were the Japanese and Greek forces.

At every turn of events, Reid continues to wage her war against the Russian history of what happened:

“The Americans arrived [in Vladivostok] just in time for a coup. Soviet historians accused the Interventionists of waging a colonial war. This was anachronistic – the hey-day of imperialism was over and untrue insofar as the Allies had no ambition permanently to annex Russian territory.”
“Vilified by Cold War-era historians on the left as absurd and hysterical, most of the material [in the British Foreign Office’s Blue Book of Bolshevik war crimes] is in fact perfectly credible”.
“Foreshadowing, ironically, a late-Soviet propaganda trope, he [Winston Churchill, then British war minister] blamed what pogroms there were on Ukrainian ‘hordes’.”
“There is some truth…in that the Intervention played into a long-standing Russian narrative of encirclement by hostile powers. But it is hard to see, had the Allies stood back, that relations would have been much better. A one-party state explicitly dedicated to worldwide revolution, the Soviet Union was never going to be a normal diplomatic partner”.
This is history topsy-turvied to fit a political message. “Excellent background to today’s events” – this is the endorsement of Reid’s book by Anne Applebaum, wife of the Polish foreign minister, Radoslav Sikorski, whose Siklebaum profiteering from Russia war-making can be followed here. In London, Reid shares direction of the Ukrainian Institute with Applebaum — Applebaum is a patron, Reid a trustee of the “independent charity that champions Ukrainian culture” which, the institute financial reports reveal, is paid for by George Soros.

Also endorsing Reid’s nasty little war book is Head Boy of the Russophobe school in the London press, Luke Harding: “Putin is the real inheritor of the White Russian legacy,” Harding opines. “He shares the same vaulting imperial mindset and addiction to violence. Like the Whites, he is contemptuous of Ukrainians and other non-Russian peoples.”

“Cartoonishly propagandistic but essentially fact-based” – what this contradiction of Reid’s means is that she hates the truth of the Bolshevik or Communist or Red case – that’s to say, she hates Russia’s Russians for thinking and acting the way they have done and continue to do. This produces a book which is cartoonishly propagandistic but essentially lie-based.

Reid reveals how it is possible for her, her Hachette-owned publisher, and her publishing agent Natasha Fairweather* to produce such a one-eyed history. The answer is in the one eye of the beholder: Reid lists eight library or government archive sources, seven of them British, one American, none Russian; four eyewitness army and navy diaries, all British, none of the Red Army; and 158 books, of which 7 were in Russian (4%).

“With the collapse of the Soviet Union,” Reid claims on her second but last page, “the motheaten trope of heroic Red Army versus villainous White Guard and Entente unravelled.” The evidence, she explains, is because “archives opened, scholarship flourished, and cartoonish [again] memorials such as Mudyug [British liquidation camp] were left to crumble.” Reid leaves no quote, no footnote to show that she has read any of this at all. That, Reid explains, is because “the wheel started turning again from the early 2000s, with the rise of Putin. Censorship returned, media and academic were muzzled, and a new story enforced, of unbroken Russian greatness under strong leaders… With Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, history is in some ways repeating itself”.

In her acknowledgements section, Reid mentions four hospitable Russian academics she met on her research trips to Moscow, Arkhangelsk, and Murmansk, she omits to reveal who paid for her travel. Then Reid makes an admission. “I made these trips in 2019, before Russia’s new [sic] invasion of Ukraine. Today I would not go.”

MAP OF ALLIED INVASION OF RUSSIA, AUGUST 1918
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MAP OF ALLIED TERRITORY AND OPERATIONS IN RUSSIA, 1919
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MAP OF ARKHANGELSK REGION AREA OF BRITISH OPERATIONS UNTIL EXIT ON SEPTEMBER 27, 1919
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Racism against Jews, aka anti-semitism, earns a full chapter of the history, including Reid’s condemnation of Winston Churchill, then Secretary of State for War, for thinking, saying and exploiting it politically. Racism against Russians is pervasive throughout the book; it’s what Reid shares with Churchill and all the others. “Generally speaking,” Reid quotes from an American army manual, “the Russian is exactly like a child – inquisitive, easily gulled, easily offended…” According to General Alfred Knox, the commander of the British military mission to Siberia, the Whites were “brave men fighting for civilisation” while the Reds were “blood-stained Jew-led Bolsheviks”. Most Russians, wrote a British naval captain, were turncoats who would change sides if not “tied hand and foot by Soviets composed of madmen, Jews, murderers and dreamers”. On going ashore at Alushta in Crimea, another British officer wrote that it was “a pleasure to meet the honest Russians and Tatars, but I confess my gorge rose at the Jews. A Russian Jew is quite the most loathsome type of humanity as a rule, and they are the curse of Russia at this moment.”

Reid is keen on Churchill’s derring-do in military operations. One of them was a fast, surface-skimming torpedo-firing naval boat that is the century-old predecessor of the Black Sea drone boats used by the Ukrainians in the Black Sea at present.

Churchill was also gung-ho in the first-ever employment of chemical weapons on Russian territory, devised and used by the British in 1919. According to Reid, the “M Device” was an arsenic derivative, diphenylaminechlorarsine, developed at Porton Down, the British military laboratory for chemical and biological weapons, and the recent source of the Novichok reported in the Skripal case.

Reid says Churchill ordered the chemical bombing to begin on August 27, 1919. It continued until September 22. By then 2,718 gas bombs had been dropped in and around Arkhangelsk and Lake Onega – that was a rate of 105 bombs, 50 sorties, each day. When the British forces left, they dumped more than 47,000 unused bombs in the White Sea. According to Reid, “what the long-term health damage was to Russian civilians, we do not know.” Reid doesn’t know because she made no attempt to find out.

THE PORTON DOWN CHEMICAL WEAPON INVENTED BY THE BRITISH FOR ATTACKING RUSSIA IN 1919
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Ordered in 1919 by Winston Churchill, then Secretary of State for War, to be used against the Russians, the “very secret” M Device was to be used “if specially necessary”. Left to right, British infantryman assembling the bomb before a bombing run; the air-dropped M Device containing diphenylaminechlorarsine (DM or Adamsite), and two thermogenerators; British pilot preparing to load the bombs for a bombing run in the Arkhangelsk region. Click for detail. From the Russian try-out of chemical warfare, Churchill went on to order gas bombing of Indian and Iraqi rebels against British rule in 1919 and 1920. The British manual of military law of the time declared the rules of war against chemical weapons applied to conflict "between civilized nations" but did “not apply in wars with uncivilized States and tribes"; click for detail.

When Reid is compelled by the truth of the Bolshevik or local Russian source of evidence, she insists on adding qualifiers: “Soviet propaganda around the Intervention was crude, hypocritical and exaggerated”, Reid claims on page 86, before adding: “but did not always have to be untrue”.

In the operations in the Caucasus around Baku, the British role in the murder of the Bolshevik-appointed leadership, the twenty-six Baku commissars, is now clear, Reid writes: “Scoffed at by Western historians for decades, the Soviet version gained credibility [sic] with the publication of Teague-Jones’s diaries, after his death in 1988”. Reginald Teague-Jones was the British intelligence officer who was official liaison with the British-backed leadership in Baku called the Trans-Caspian Committee, and relayed to them the execution order, so they did the killing and the British wrote the subsequent history denying their part.

Describing a British camp for liquidating Russian prisoners at Mudyug, on the White Sea north of Arkhangelsk, Reid says “the Soviets turned it into a cartoonishly propagandistic but essentially fact-based museum”. “Cartoonish” is a term Reid uses more than once when the truth of the history forces its way into her narrative. For an eyewitness account of what the British and French arranged to be done to Russians imprisoned at Mudyug, Reid accepts “a Soviet-inflected but plausible survivor memoir” which documented a policy of starvation of the inmates to death, and the understanding that “many inmates should not have been there at all…the English had confused the word for Bolshevik with bolshak, local dialect for the eldest son in a fatherless family.” Больша́к isn’t either “Soviet-inflected” or “local dialect” – Reid is excusing local genocide by a linguistic mistake. In truth, uninflected, this was a policy of the senior British commanders, some of whom, Reid concedes, were running on the side coal and timber-stealing for export in the north, oil in the south.

British history-telling like this turns out to be not history at all, but “cartoonish propaganda” of the same credibility now being paid for and published by foundations like Reid’s Ukrainian Institute. This turns Reid’s book into a museum for the British culture of learning and expression which is now so ailing and so poor it is obliged to take its direction, money, and script from Kiev and Washington.

[*] Fairweather is the widow of Richard Beeston, Russophobe of the London Times, who was assigned to report from Moscow during the Yeltsin presidency, 1994-98; his idea of sourcing for his despatches was to harangue foreign correspondents better informed than he was, at dinners he obliged them to pay for, on how mistaken they were about Yeltsin’s failures. As a London literary agent, Fairweather sells books to publishers and film producers on their anti-Russian value for clients who, in addition to Reid, include Boris Johnson, Owen Matthews, and Timothy Garton Ash.

https://johnhelmer.net/a-nasty-little-b ... more-89787

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US House Passes Bill To Give Frozen Russian Assets to Ukraine
APRIL 22, 2024

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In this January 6, 2021, file photo, Nancy Pelosi speaks in the US House Chamber after they reconvened for arguments over the objection to certifying Arizona's Electoral College votes in November's election, at the Capitol in Washington. Photo: Jim Lo Scalzo/Sputnik.

The US House of Representatives passed legislation on Saturday to transfer frozen Russian sovereign assets to Ukraine and ban TikTok unless it severs ties to its Chinese parent company.

House lawmakers passed the bill, dubbed the 21st Century Peace through Strength Act, in a vote of 360 in favor and 58 opposed.

The legislation allows the executive branch to transfer frozen Russian sovereign assets to Ukraine, sanctions Iran, disrupts the ability of Palestinian organization Hamas to fund terrorism and sanctions entities involved in international fentanyl trafficking.



Moreover, the bill prevents app stores or web hosting services in the United States from featuring TikTok unless it severs ties to Chinese parent company ByteDance.

Russia views attempts by the US and EU to seize Russian assets as theft and also an act of trade war, and Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has warned that Moscow would have a tough response to such an escalation of economic aggression.

https://orinocotribune.com/us-house-pas ... o-ukraine/

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DMITRY TRENIN: RUSSIA IS UNDERGOING A NEW, INVISIBLE REVOLUTION
APRIL 22, 2024 NATYLIESB

By Dmitry Trenin, RT, 4/2/24

When President Vladimir Putin, back in February 2022, launched Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, he had specific, but limited objectives in mind. It was essentially about assuring Russia’s security vis-à-vis NATO.

However, the drastic, expansive and well-coordinated Western reaction to Moscow’s moves – the torpedoing of the Russo-Ukrainian peace deal and the mounting escalation of the US-led bloc’s involvement in the conflict, including its role in deadly attacks inside Russia – have fundamentally changed our country’s attitude towards our former partners.

We no longer hear talk about “grievances” and complaints about “failures in understanding.” The last two years have produced nothing less than a revolution in Moscow’s foreign policy, more radical and far-reaching than anything anticipated on the eve of the Ukraine intervention. Over the past 25 months, it has been quickly gaining in strength and profundity. Russia’s international role, its position in the world, its goals and methods of reaching them, its basic worldview – all are changing.

The national foreign policy concept, signed by Putin just a year ago, represents a major departure from its predecessors. It establishes the country’s identity in terms of it being a distinct civilization. In fact, it is the first official Russian document to do so. It also radically transforms the priorities of Moscow’s diplomacy, with the countries of the post-Soviet ‘near abroad’ on top, followed by China and India, Asia and the Middle East, and Africa and Latin America.

Western Europe and the United States rank next to last, just above the Antarctic.

Unlike in the previous decade, when Russia’s “turn to the east” was first announced, these are not just words. Our trade partners, not just political interlocutors, have also switched places. In just two years, the European Union, which only recently accounted for 48% of foreign trade, is down to 20%, whereas Asia’s share has soared from 26% to 71%. Russia’s use of the US dollar has also plummeted, with increasingly more transactions being conducted in Chinese yuan and other non-Western currencies such as the Indian rupee, the UAE dirham, as well as the instruments of our partners in the Eurasian Economic Union, and the ruble itself.

Russia has also ended its long and tiresome efforts to adapt to the US-led world order – something which it enthusiastically embraced in the early 1990s, grew disillusioned about in the following decade, and unsuccessfully tried to establish a modus vivendi with in the 2010s. Instead of surrendering to a post-Cold War set-up, in which it was left with no say, Russia has begun pushing back more and more against the hegemonic US-centered system. For the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution, albeit in a very different way from then, the country has de facto become a revolutionary power. While China still seeks to improve its position in the existing world order, Russia sees that state-of-affairs as being beyond repair, and is instead seeking to prepare for a new alternative arrangement.

For the time being, instead of the “one world” concept, which the Soviet Union even accepted in 1986, under Gorbachev, Moscow’s contemporary foreign policy has now split into two. For Russian policymakers, the post-2022 West has turned into a “house of adversaries,” while partners for Russia can only be found in the countries of the non-West, for whom we have coined a new description, “the World Majority.” The criterion for being included the group is simple: non-participation in the anti-Russia sanctions regime imposed by Washington and Brussels. This majority of over 100 nations is not considered a pool of allies: the depth and warmth of their relations with the Russia vary greatly, but these are the countries that Moscow can do business with.

For many decades, our country has been exceedingly supportive of various international organizations; it sought to join as many clubs as possible. Now Moscow has to admit that even the United Nations, including its Security Council (which Russia, a veto-wielding permanent member, has traditionally hailed as the centerpiece of the world system), has turned into a dysfunctional theater of polemics. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which Moscow long wanted to see as the premier security instrument in Europe, is now nearly totally dismissed due to the anti-Russian stance of its NATO/EU majority membership. Moscow has quit the Council of Europe, and its participation in a number of regional groupings for the Arctic, the Baltic, the Barents and the Black Seas has been put on hold.

True, much of this has been the result of the West’s policy of trying to isolate our country, but rather than feeling deprived of something valuable, Russians have few regrets over having had to leave or to suspend membership. Very tellingly, having re-established the supremacy of national legislation over international treaties, Moscow now cares little about what its adversaries can say or do about its policies or actions. From Russia’s standpoint, not only can’t the West be trusted any longer; the international bodies that it controls have lost all legitimacy.

This attitude toward Western-dominated international institutions contrasts with the view of non-Western ones. This year, Russia’s presidency of the recently enlarged BRICS group is being marked by hyperactivity in preparations for hosting. Russia is also most supportive of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which its close ally Belarus is about to join. Together with countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, it’s working closely to build new international regimes in a number of areas: finance and trade, standards and technology, information and health care. These are expressly being designed to be free from Western domination and interference. If successful, they can serve as elements of the future inclusive world order which Moscow promotes.

So, the changes in Russia’s foreign policy run very deep indeed. There is a question, however: how sustainable are they?

Above all, it should be noted that changes in foreign policy are an important, but also a relatively minor element of the wider transformation which is going on in Russia’s economy, polity, society, culture, values, and spiritual and intellectual life. The general direction and importance of those changes is clear. They are transforming the country from being a distant outlier on the fringes of the Western world into something which is self-sufficient and pioneering. These tectonic shifts would not have been possible without the Ukraine crisis. Having been given a powerful and painful push, now they have acquired a dynamic of their own.

It’s true that February 2022 itself was the end result of several trends that had been gathering momentum for about a decade. Feelings that fuller sovereignty was desired finally became dominant after Putin’s return to the Kremlin in 2012 and the re-unification with Crimea in 2014. Some truly fundamental changes with regard to national values and ideology were made in the form of amendments to the Russian Constitution, approved in 2020.

In March 2024 Putin won a resounding victory in the presidential elections and secured a fresh six-year mandate. This should be seen as a vote of confidence in him as the supreme commander-in-chief in the existential struggle (as Putin himself describes it) against the West. With that backing, the president can proceed with even deeper changes – and must make sure that those he has already wrought are preserved and built upon by those who succeed him in the Kremlin.

It is important to note that the Russian elites, which since the 1990s have been closely tied to the West, have had to make a hard choice recently between their country and their assets. Those who decided to stay have had to become more “national” in their outlook and action. Meanwhile, Putin has launched a campaign to form a new elite around the Ukraine war veterans. The expected turnover of Russian elites, and the transformation from a cosmopolitan group of self-serving individuals into a more traditional coterie of privileged servants of the state and its leader would make sure that the foreign policy revolution is complete.

Finally, Russia may not have been able to start moving so quickly in the direction of sovereignty had it not been for the Western policies of the past two decades: the increasing demonization of the country and its leadership. These choices have succeeded in making perhaps the initially most Westernizing, pro-European leadership that modern Russia has seen – including notably Putin himself and Dmitry Medvedev – into self-avowed anti-Westerners and determined opponents of US/EU policies.

Thus, rather than forcing Russia change to fit a Western pattern, all that pressure has instead helped the country find itself again.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/04/dmi ... evolution/

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Georgia Fight Against US Subversion & its Implications Worldwide
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on APRIL 22, 2024
Brian Berletic

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Throughout the 21st century, the United States has invaded and occupied multiple nations, including Afghanistan in 2001, Iraq in 2003, and Syria in 2014. It has also led to military interventions rendering once prosperous nations into failed states, including Libya from 2011 onward.

Beyond this more destructive and direct approach, the US has also admittedly interfered in the internal political affairs of other nations, attempting to overthrow elected governments and install client regimes in their place.

In a 2004 Guardian article titled, “US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev,” it admitted (emphasis added):

…the campaign is an American creation, a sophisticated and brilliantly conceived exercise in western branding and mass marketing that, in four countries in four years, has been used to try to salvage rigged elections and topple unsavoury regimes.

Funded and organised by the US government, deploying US consultancies, pollsters, diplomats, the two big American parties and US non-government organisations, the campaign was first used in Europe in Belgrade in 2000 to beat Slobodan Milosevic at the ballot box.

Richard Miles, the US ambassador in Belgrade, played a key role. And by last year, as US ambassador in Tbilisi, he repeated the trick in Georgia, coaching Mikhail Saakashvili in how to bring down Eduard Shevardnadze.

Ten months after the success in Belgrade, the US ambassador in Minsk, Michael Kozak, a veteran of similar operations in central America, notably in Nicaragua, organised a near identical campaign to try to defeat the Belarus hardman, Alexander Lukashenko..


This startling admission exposes the US government as deeply involved in interfering in and subverting the political independence of not one, but multiple, nations in Eastern Europe.

The same article admits that the US government achieves this through funds distributed by the National Endowment for Democracy’s (NED) many subsidiaries, including the International Republican Institute (IRI), National Democratic Institute (NDI), and Freedom House. It also mentions adjacent private foundations like George Soros’ Open Society Foundation.

The admitted interference aimed at regime change and the political capture of targeted nations – where roles reversed, and it was the US or its allies targeted by such interference by say Russia or China – would elicit an immediate and severe response. Already, the collective West possesses some of the strictest laws regulating foreign interference.

The United States maintains the Foreign Agents Registration Act, established all the way back in 1938, requiring foreign-funded organizations to register with the US government and disclose their funding or face severe penalties including lengthy jail terms.

It is no surprise that many other nations around the globe have adopted similar legislation. After all, a nation’s political independence is guaranteed under the United Nations Charter, as is a nation’s right to defend it.

Other nations who have failed to pass such legislation have found themselves overwhelmed by US and European-funded organizations and opposition groups who are able to block or push agendas, including legislation, suiting Western interests at the explicit expense of the targeted nation.

The temptation of these nations to pass long-overdue legislation to put in check Western interference the West itself would never tolerate within its own borders, is high, and several nations have attempted to do so in recent years.

Target Georgia

The Caucasus nation of Georgia is now in Western headlines for trying to do exactly this.

Having already suffered immensely from both US and European interference but also political capture and use by the West in a disastrous but short proxy war with neighboring Russia in 2008, some in the capital of Tbilisi are eager to finally close loopholes that have allowed foreign-fuelled subversion to flourish.

CNN in its recent article, “Georgia presses on with Putin-style ‘foreign agent’ bill despite huge protests,” ironically attempts to conflate Georgia’s legitimate desire to root out foreign interference with a nebulous inference of “Russian” interference instead. Nowhere is it mentioned that these “huge protests” are led by US government-funded opposition figures.

The article claims that Georgia’s law mirrors Russia’s own foreign agent law, failing to point out that both pieces of legislation closely mirror the United States’ own Foreign Agents Registration Act.

Other articles like Eurasianet’s, “Far from FARA? Georgia’s foreign agent law controversy,” attempt to claim Georgia’s bill is different from the US Foreign Agents Registration Act, claiming that:

One crucial difference is that FARA does not require registration simply on grounds of foreign funding. Rather, one must be an agent of a foreign principal, including if one acts at the direction and control of a foreign government.

And that:

While the U.S. law focuses on political lobbying, the Georgia law will primarily affect the nation’s vibrant civil society that donors have nurtured for decades.

But as The Guardian’s 2004 article admitted, the supposed “civil society” the US government and others are funding in targeted nations including Georgia are involved specifically in regime change “funded and organized by the US government,” amounting to foreign interference even by the US’ own definition.

It should be pointed out that Eurasianet itself is funded by the US government through the NED.

In fact, the vast majority of the political opposition groups inside Georgia and media organizations beyond Georgia’s borders criticizing the legislation are funded by the US government. They are opposed to Georgia’s foreign agent bill not because it will encroach upon actual freedom and democracy, and specifically Georgia’s own self-determination, but precisely because it will create a significant obstacle for US interference.

The growing “domestic” pressure placed on Georgia’s government is an illustration of just how much control over Georgia’s internal political affairs the US has and how urgent it is to pass legislation that will expose and eliminate such interference.

Not Just Georgia

Other nations have gone through a similar process. Russia successfully reduced foreign interference in its political space with its own foreign agent law.

The Southeast Asian Kingdom of Thailand attempted to pass a similar law in 2021. Just as the US is doing now in regard to Georgia, it mobilized US-funded opposition groups and media platforms inside Thailand, and media and “rights” organizations beyond Thai borders to place pressure on the Thai government to abandon the legislation and preserve a permissive environment for foreign interference.

A 2021 Thai PBS article titled, “Thailand’s NGO law: Uprooting foreign influence or gagging govt critics?,” would include a photo of a rally led by a US government-funded organization called “iLaw” and cite criticism regarding its US government funding. The organization was attempting to petition for a complete rewrite of Thailand’s constitution. Despite the obvious gravity of a foreign-funded organization attempting to rewrite Thailand’s most central and sensitive document, Thai PBS attempted to brush off the concern behind the NGO law as “paranoia.”

Thai PBS, despite being funded by the Thai government itself, has a disproportionate number of employees educated in and sympathetic to the US and Europe. Many employees are drawn from or move on to the Western media or organizations funded by the US government. It is another illustration of just how dangerous foreign interference actually is, and how far off course it can push a nation from protecting its own best interests, including its own sovereignty and political independence.

Another organization, Fortify Rights, published an article in 2022 titled, “Fortify Rights submits concerns to Thai government over draft NGO law.” Just as is the case with Eurasianet, Fortify Rights is likewise funded by the US government through the NED, as documented in the organization’s own 2015 annual report.

The letter echoed Thai PBS’ argument, which uncoincidentally is the same argument made by the US State Department itself in regard to Georgia’s current legislation.

A March 2023 post on the US Embassy in Georgia’s website quotes then US State Department spokesman Ned Price making all the same arguments seen across the Western media and US-funded organizations in both Georgia and Thailand past and present regarding their respective foreign interference laws.

Price makes the claim that the US Foreign Agents Registration Act only concerns agents of other governments, while claiming US and European-funded organizations and individuals are not somehow being directed by Washington or Brussels.

While Price, Eurasianet, Thai PBS, and Fortify Rights all try to portray laws confronting foreign interference as a threat to “democracy” and “human rights,” a nation’s ability to determine its political matters itself, without external interference, is one of the most important human rights of all. The foundation of genuine human freedom is self-determination.

For Thailand, the collective pressure of US-funded groups inside Thai borders and beyond them succeeded in forcing the Thai government at the time to abandon the NGO law. US and European-funded opposition groups continue unchecked interference in Thailand’s internal political affairs, as well as interfering in and undermining the integrity of Thailand’s institutions, including its legal and education system.

Washington and its proxies’ attempts to vilify a nation for protecting its freedom to decide its internal political affairs itself, including how it decides to protect its political independence, is itself evidence of just how extensive and dangerous US interference is abroad and how important it is for nations to defend against it with foreign agent bills and foreign-funded NGO laws.

Only time will tell whether or not Georgia is able to both pass this legislation and successfully implement it, restoring national sovereignty and political independence stripped from it by US interference and political capture. Should Georgia succeed where Thailand failed, perhaps it will encourage other nations to follow suit, including nations that have already tried but failed to do so in recent years, including Thailand.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/04/ ... worldwide/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Wed Apr 24, 2024 2:58 pm

Unified science management body
April 24, 13:05

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Russia has been proposed to create a unified science management body following the example of the USSR

To achieve technological sovereignty, Russia needs to create a supra-departmental science management body, increase funding for research and development to 3% of GDP, and also solve the problem of “brain drain,” they state ( https://www.rbc.ru/economics/23/04/ 2024/662622be9a79471728714a8e ) experts

Providing Russia with technological sovereignty should be taken over by the basic element of the Soviet science management system - the State Committee for Science and Technology - in the format of the Bureau of Science and Technology as a permanent supra-ministerial body. It can also perform the functions of the apparatus of the government Commission for Scientific and Technological Development

In addition to coordination and interdepartmental interaction on large intersectoral scientific and technological projects, the task of the new management body should be the transfer of technologies between the civilian and defense sectors of the economy.

A similar adjustment to the science management system is now taking place in China , where it is planned to restructure the Ministry of Science and Technology, reducing unnecessary functionality, and create a new Central Commission for Science and Technology.

For the effective development of our own breakthrough technologies, an increase in R&D expenditures is required to 3–3.5% of GDP by 2030, which includes the growth of government and private financing

In addition, an effective set of measures is needed to prevent “brain drain”, including measures of material motivation and opportunities for career growth

“CRYSTAL GROWTH” previously informed ( https://t.me/crystal_book/195 ) about the unique domestic experience of technological development with the creation of the State Committee for the Introduction of Advanced Technology, which has been operating since 1948, and its subsequent ( https://t.me/crystal_book/347 ) liquidation

https://t.me/crystal_book/4270 - zinc

Everything new is well forgotten old.
Centralized state management of science in the current realities looks inevitable. The market won't solve anything there.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9113731.html

Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Ivanov was sent to a pre-trial detention center
April 24, 10:27

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Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Timur Ivanov was sent to a pre-trial detention center on charges of receiving a bribe on an especially large scale. According to the investigation, Ivanov entered into a criminal conspiracy with third parties when carrying out contract and subcontract work for the needs of the Russian Defense Ministry.

(Short video at link. One seldom sees guilt so manifest.)

The FSB military counterintelligence agency is handling the case. Ivanov himself has been in development for a long time.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9113101.html

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Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Thu Apr 25, 2024 3:52 pm

RUSSIA’S ALUMINIUM STRATEGY — SANCTIONS FORCE OLEG DERIPASKA’S RUSAL TO REVERSE COURSE TWENTY YEARS TOO LATE

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

The opposite of comeuppance ought to be comedownance. That’s when, instead of a negative outcome which the perpetrator has deserved, the outcome is positive but not what the perpetrator had planned or anticipated.

This is now happening to Oleg Deripaska’s (lead image, left) aluminium monopoly Rusal, according to an announcement this week by the Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, Viktor Yevtukhov (right). “We have high-quality aluminium,” he said reporters at an industry conference. “And I do not think that the refusal of America and England to buy our aluminium, where we did not supply so much anyway — crumbs, so to speak — will somehow affect the possibility of our supplies to other countries.”

Yevtukhov was referring to the new US and UK sanctions, announced on April 12, to stop exports into their markets of Russian primary aluminium, copper and nickel, and out an end stocking and trading of the Russian metals by the London Metals Exchange (LME) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

On April 24, Andrew Home, the London expert on the international aluminium trade, acknowledged that warehousers, metal traders and speculators, and the Russians have already devised schemes to evade the sanctions, keep the discount for sales Rusal aluminium sales from growing, and at the same time hold the exchange benchmark price of the metal steady. Home understands the complexities of the LME trade; he admits he doesn’t know what the outcome will be. If he knew more about Russian conditions than he and Reuters are capable of, it would be clear that Deripaska aims to buy time to defeat the sanctions and get the Russian treasury to pay the price.

Yevtukhov’s response is that if Deripaska and Rusal are asking for a bailout by the Russian government, there are conditions: in exchange for the misfortune which the Americans and British are attempting to impose on the Russian metals sector, Deripaska’s application for state budget funds to buy aluminium from Rusal and keep it in a new state stockpile, anmd in return for letting Deripaska hold up the profit flowing into the company and into his own pocket, he must change his strategy for the benefit of the Russian state.

“[Mr. Yevtukhov] drew attention to the fact that the restrictions imposed by Western countries apply only to primary aluminium. They do not affect products made from Russian aluminium. ‘Experts estimate the potential and capacity of our market to 2 million tonnes, despite the fact that Rusal, as you know, produces 4.1-4.2 million tonnes approximately. Of course, this is not done overnight, but such work is underway, and its results are already evident.”

What Yevtukhov means is that Rusal must now switch from being an upstream aluminium producer from bauxite mine to alumina refinery to aluminium smelter, exporting metal abroad, to becoming a vertically integrated producer of such secondary and processed aluminium products as beverage cans, foil, plates, sheets, and extrusions for construction, automobile and other manufactures.

The new strategy for Rusal puts a priority on the domestic Russian market. This had been Deripaska’s strategy for the decade between 1994 and 2004. But he then abandoned the downstream because it was less profitable than upstream, and impossible to hide from Russian tax as were the upstream and export lines of business.

For Deripaska to be told by a deputy minister that he can’t have a state bailout for his unsold metal unless he accepts a revolution in corporate tax avoidance is a plan no Russian minister or president has achieved before. Or else it’s a false flag Deripaska himself is waving at Washington and London.

For the duration of the war, readers will already know, this site has suspended its investigations of oligarch-controlled businesses operating against the Russian national interest. In the case of Deripaska and the aluminium business, the archive currently holds 233 pieces — and they go back only far as April 2004. In the decade before that, the archive of Platt’s Metals , then owned by McGraw Hill in New York, held several hundred more reports.

The lessons were summed up in April 2018 in a six-point guide to Kremlin handling of the company and the oligarch. Six years ago, Point 1 was: “the first and biggest of Deripaska’s business mistakes was to destroy Rusal’s business model as a vertically integrated producer of bauxite, alumina, aluminium ingot, and most types of downstream aluminium product in sheet or pressed and extruded form. This is also the model of Alcoa in the US. Instead, Deripaska turned Rusal into mining raw materials and smelting primary aluminium. That was advantageous for the man, not for the country, because Deripaska personally stood to make much more profit from exporting the metal and keeping the profits abroad. Reorganizing the Rusal group requires the revival of downstream metal fabrication, and a shift of company revenues and earnings from foreign to domestic sales.”

Yevtukhov’s initiative this week indicates, despite the sanctions against him personally, Deripaska has successfully resisted this reorganisation. But Yevtukhov is implying that this is once again a state priority, and that Deripaska is now in a weaker position to resist than he was before — in 2008 when he applied for and received a Central Bank bailout of his debts; and in 2010 when the Kremlin underwrote Rusal’s initial public offering of shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

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Source: https://johnhelmer.net/

But as the charts reveal for Rusal’s share price, for the price of primary aluminium, and for the stock exchange trajectories of Rusal’s international rivals from China, the US and India, Deripaska has been a failure in the global markets before US and European sanctions began to strike at Russian’s exports of aluminium.

Also, the US sanctions against Deripaska personally driven by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and accepted reluctantly by the State Department, dating from a time well before the war began in the Ukraine in 2014, have followed after the stock markets of London, Frankfurt, New York, and Hong Kong voted their no-confidence in him.

TRAJECTORY OF RUSAL SHARE PRICE ON THE HONG KONG STOCK EXCHANGE SINCE LISTING IN JANUARY 2010
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Source: https://markets.ft.com

The market capitalization of Rusal at the current Hong Kong dollar value of the share price is equivalent to US$5 billion.

TRAJECTORY OF PRIMARY ALUMINIUM PRICE, 2019-2024
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Source: https://ycharts.com/

Peak of $3,498 in March 2022.

SHARE PRICE TRAJECTORY OF RUSAL’S INTERNATIONAL RIVALS – ALCOA (US), CHALCO (CHINA), VEDANTA (INDIA)
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KEY: Grey=Aluminium Corporation of China (Chalco), market capitalization is $16 billion; yellow=Alcoa (US), market cap $6.5 billion; green=Vedanta (India), market cap $14.5 billion.

From 1998 to 2003, the period in which Deripaska and chief executive Alexander Bulygin consolidated their assets into Rusal and defeated their Russian rivals, they regarded Alcoa as their chief rival internationally. In private, Bulygin said that Paul O’Neill, the former Alcoa chief executive who was Treasury Secretary for a time in the 1990s, was one of the US officials responsible for imposing the first US visa ban on Deripaska, and for encouraging the FBI’s organized-crime dossier on Deripaska to be passed to other governments, including the UK and Australia, where Deripaska also had visa trouble. They also believed that Alcoa was a threat to Rusal’s interests in mining bauxite and expanding its concessions in Guinea, on which the group’s Ukrainian alumina refinery and Russian smelters depended. During the contested takeover of the Nikolaev alumina refinery (Ukraine) in 1999-2000, they believed that Alcoa conspired to deprive Rusal (then called Sibal) of standby alumina supplies which it sought in various parts of the world.

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Left to right: Alexander Bulygin, Deripaska’s first chief executive; Victor Vekselberg, owner of domestic rival SUAL who was forced by Kremlin pressure to accept merger with Rusal; Oleg Deripaska; Paul O’Neill. Bulygin lost influence with Deripaska and power in the company and disappeared after being reported in the UK, too ill to testify in Mikhail Chernoy’s London High Court lawsuit against Deripaska for recovery of his $1 billion stake in the company.

During 2004 Deripaska and Bulygin told the press that they had decided to sell two downstream metal rolling factories in Rostov and Samara to Alcoa. Their reason at the time was that the mills were unprofitable. On May 6 of that year the sale transaction was announced officially. Publicly, Bulygin said: “this transaction arises from Rusal’s strategy to focus on its strengths upstream, as a leading producer of primary aluminum and alloys.” Bulygin appeared to be contradicting himself, and earlier Rusal presentations, which were depicting the company as a vertically integrated holding, from bauxite mining to aluminium applications in aviation and automotive construction, housing, and consumer products. Privately, Bulygin admitted failure to develop the domestic and exports for aluminium applications in aircraft manufacture. He said that growth in domestic Russian demand for processed metal wasn’t as fast or as profitable as he and Deripaska wanted. But most importantly, according to Bulygin, “if we concentrate on our cheap domestic electricity and cheap Guinean and Australian bauxite in order to produce low-cost primary aluminium, and then export it, we can make much bigger profits and keep them to ourselves [offshore].”

It was Bulygin’s ambition, he told the Financial Times in 2006, to move from “number three aluminium producer in the world to become number one in the world by 2013.”

The war in the Ukraine and the sanctions war have now closed half the global market for Russian aluminium, and like all other Russian commodities and manufactures, forced the reorientation of the metal trade flows away from the US and Europe and towards Asia and Africa instead. A month ago, Rusal released its financial report for the year ending December 31, 2023. From earnings (Ebitda) of $2 billion and net profit of $1.8 billion in 2022, the company dropped to $786 million and loss of $1.3 billion.

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Source: https://rusal.ru/

As of March 14, the company’s Russian auditors reported “material uncertainty in the [Rusal] Group’s ability to meet its financial obligations on time and continue as a going concern entity.”

“Ban of Australian government for the export of alumina and bauxite to Russia introduced in March 2022 and stoppage of production at Nikolaev Alumina Refinery Company Ltd due to developments in Ukraine starting from 1 March 2022 influenced the availability of alumina and bauxite or increase the purchase prices for the Group. Difficulties with logistics caused the Group to rebuild the supply and sales chains and lead to additional logistics costs. If the situation in Ukraine and overall geopolitical tension persists or continues to develop significantly, including the loss of significant parts of foreign markets, which cannot be reallocated to new markets, it may affect the Group’s business, financial condition, prospects and results of operations.”

“Potentially the Group may have difficulties with equipment deliveries that may postpone realization of some investment projects and modernization programs for existing production facilities. The facts described above, as well as the volatility of commodity markets, stock, currency markets and interest rates, create material uncertainty in the Group’s ability to meet its financial obligations on time and continue as a going concern entity.”

The report indicated that from 2022 to 2023 sales of metal to China jumped from $1.1 billion to $2.9 billion. No sales figures for the US were released. The domestic sales inside Russia dropped from $3.8 billion to $3.5 billion. The value of domestic Russian sales dropped slightly, but the domestic share of Rusal’s global sales rose from 27% to 29%.

Yevtukhov was asked to expand on his earlier remarks, and to confirm that it is now government policy that if Deripaska wants a state stockpile of aluminium to take the metal off the company’s hands and limit production cuts and job losses, he must reorganize the company along the lines of its strategy twenty years ago.

Yevtukhov’s spokesman asked for an email of the questions, and then did not answer.

https://johnhelmer.net/russias-aluminiu ... more-89799

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WYATT REED: UK INSURERS REFUSE TO PAY NORD STREAM BECAUSE BLASTS WERE ‘GOVERNMENT’ BACKED
APRIL 24, 2024 NATYLIESB
By Wyatt Reed, The Grayzone, 4/17/24

The legal team representing high-powered insurers Lloyd’s and Arch says that since the Nord Stream explosions were “more likely than not to have been inflicted by… a government,” they have no responsibility to pay for damages to the pipelines. To succeed with that defense, the companies will presumably be compelled to prove, in court, who carried out those attacks.

British insurers are arguing that they have no obligation to honor their coverage of the Nord Stream pipelines, which were blown up in September 2022, because the unprecedented act of industrial sabotage was likely carried out by a national government.

The insurers’ filing contradicts reports the Washington Post and other legacy media publications asserting that a private Ukrainian team was responsible for the massive act of industrial sabotage.

A legal brief filed on behalf of UK-based firms Lloyd’s Insurance Company and Arch Insurance states that the “defendants will rely on, inter alia, the fact that the explosion Damage could only have (or, at least, was more likely than not to have) been inflicted by or under the order of a government.”

As a result, they argue, “the Explosion Damage was “directly or indirectly occasioned by, happening through, or in consequence of” the conflict between Russia and Ukraine” and falls under an exclusion relating to military conflicts.

The brief comes a month after Switzerland-based Nord Stream AG filed a lawsuit against the insurers for their refusal to compensate the company. Nord Stream, which estimated the cost incurred by the attack at between €1.2 billion and €1.35 billion, is seeking to recoup over €400 million in damages.

Swedish engineer Erik Andersson, who led the first private investigative expedition to the blast sites of the Nord Stream pipelines, describes the insurers’ legal strategy as a desperate attempt to find an excuse to avoid honoring their indemnity obligations.

“If it’s an act of war and ordered by a government, that’s the only way they can escape their responsibility to pay,” Andersson told The Grayzone.

Following a report by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh which alleged that the US government was responsible for the Nord Stream explosion, Western governments quickly spun out a narrative placing blame on a team of rogue Ukrainian operatives. Given the lack of conclusive evidence, however, proving that the explosions were “inflicted by or under the order of a government” would be a major challenge for defense lawyers.

Even if the plaintiffs in the case are able to wrest back the funds in court, they are likely to face other serious hurdles. Later in the brief, lawyers for Lloyd’s and Arch suggest that even if they were required to pay up, anti-Russian sanctions would leave their hands tied.

“In the event that the Defendants are found to be liable to pay an indemnity and/or damages to the Claimant,” the brief states, “the Defendants reserve their position as to whether any such payment would be prohibited by any applicable economic sanctions that may be in force at the time any such payment is required to be made.”

After they were threatened with sanctions by the US government, in 2021 Lloyd’s and Arch both withdrew from their agreement to cover damages to the second of the pipelines, Nord Stream 2. But though they remain on the hook for damages to the first line, the language used by the insurers’ lawyers seems to be alluding to a possible future sanctions package that would release them from their financial obligations. “Nord Stream 1 was not affected by those sanctions, but apparently sanctions might work retroactively to the benefit of insurers,” observes Andersson.

The plaintiffs may face an uphill battle at the British High Court in London, the city where Lloyd’s has been headquartered since its creation in 1689. As former State Department cybersecurity official Mike Benz observed, “Lloyd’s of London is the prize of the London banking establishment,” and “London is the driving force behind the transatlantic side of the Blob’s “Seize Eurasia” designs on Russia.”

But if their arguments are enough to convince a court in London, a decision in favor of the insurers would likely be a double-edged sword. Following Lloyd’s submission to US sanctions and its refusal to insure ships carrying Iranian oil, Western insurance underwriters (like their colleagues in the banking sector) are increasingly in danger of losing their global reputation for relative independence from the state. Should the West ultimately lose its grip on the global insurance market — or its reputation as a safe haven for foreign assets — €400 million will be unlikely to buy it back.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/04/wya ... nt-backed/

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There’s A New Western Media Push To Sow Doubts About The Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership

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ANDREW KORYBKO
APR 25, 2024

These back-to-back pieces are meant to mislead India and Russian experts into thinking that it’s not worth maintaining their strategic partnership because Russia supposedly already defected to China while India supposedly already defected to the US.

The National Interest and Politico just published back-to-back pieces by Western-friendly Indian writers who sowed doubts about the Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership. The first one was by Anita Inder Singh and titled “Make No Mistake, Russia Values China Over India”, while the second was by Anchal Vohra and about how “India looks beyond Russia for defense imports”. The arguments presented therein aren’t new but what’s novel is their timed publication on platforms that are read by foreign policy experts.

Singh sought to convince her audience that Russia is already China’s junior partner, thus implying that there’s no longer any reason for India to retain special and privileged ties with it since doing so is assumedly a waste of time and effort. As for Vohra, she cited fellow Western-friendly Indian experts who agreed with her prediction that their country will accelerate its military decoupling from Russia. The following three pieces already challenged these claims and should be reviewed by interested readers:

* 25 February 2024: “India’s Top Diplomat Explained Why His Country Is Doubling Down On Ties With Russia”

* 11 March 2024: “Russian-Indian Relations Are Moving Beyond Their Prior Military-Centricity”

* 25 March 2024: “Jaishankar Reaffirmed India’s Trust In Russia Amidst Claims Of The Latter Drifting Towards China”

The gist is that Russia relies on India to preemptively avert potentially disproportionate dependence on China, thus keeping tri-multipolarity processes on track with a view towards them eventually evolving into complex multipolarity (“multiplexity”) instead of reverting to a form of Sino-US bi-multipolarity. The Kremlin’s concern is that any such lopsided relationship could make Russia strategically vulnerable in the event that China and the US agree to a “New Détente”. Here are a few prior analyses about this policy:

* 6 June 2022: “India Is Irreplaceable Balancing Force in Global Systemic Transition”

* 2 March 2023: “Towards Tri-Multipolarity: The Golden Billion, The Sino-Russo Entente, & The Global South”

* 4 May 2023: “RIC’s Differences Should Be Candidly Acknowledged Instead Of Denied Or Spun By Alt-Media”

The earlier mentioned piece about how Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar reaffirmed his country’s trust in Russia amidst claims of the latter drifting towards China touched on the existence of a pro-Chinese policymaking faction that arose within Russia over the past year. Its members believe that a return to bi-multipolarity is inevitable so they want to accelerate it by giving China’s superpower trajectory a boost as revenge against the US instead of balancing with India to no avail as they see it.

This piece from early April asking “Should Russia Have Invited China & India To Join Eurasian Security Talks At The Same Time?” shows that they’ve finally become influential. Late April’s article asking “Was Pepe Escobar Duped By A Foreign Spy Agency Into Spreading Fake News About Russia & Israel?” then rebrands that faction as pro-BRI to avoid any inadvertent innuendo of nefarious Chinese influence. Both relate to the present piece since this faction can exploit the new media push to advance their agenda.

To explain, their “friendly rivals” who currently call the shots can be described as balancers, and they’re loath to do anything that could seriously offend India. They’re afraid that doing so could spook Delhi into assuming that this was the result of Beijing’s disproportionate influence over Moscow, thus leading to India pivoting towards the US and therefore pushing Russia to do the same vis-à-vis China. A return to bi-multipolarity would then become inevitable to everyone’s detriment apart from the two superpowers’.

The greatest uncertainty in bilateral ties right now is whether Pakistan will be invited to participate in this year’s “Outreach”/“BRICS-Plus” event like Russian Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov implied in early March. He said that the Kremlin plans to invite the leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the SCO, but given the overlap between them, inviting SCO leaders is basically a backdoor for inviting Pakistan, which isn’t part of the first two or BRICS unlike all the others.

It was thought late last year that Russia wouldn’t risk seriously offending India by inviting Pakistan, and then Ushakov’s claim was interpreted as signaling that China isn’t the only one that can summon all SCO leaders, thus counteracting claims of Russia’s junior partnership to it. Upon dwelling on everything, however, it can’t be ruled out that Prime Minister Narendra Modi might informally boycott the event in protest, which could revive bi-multipolarity processes. Here’s how the thought process evolved:

* 24 November 2023: “Russia Will Only Extend Perfunctory Support For Pakistan’s Membership In BRICS”

* 5 March 2024: “Russia’s ‘Outreach’/’BRICS Plus’ Invite To Pakistan Shouldn’t Ruffle India’s Feathers”

* 9 March 2024: “Should Russia Reconsider Inviting Pakistan To Participate In ‘Outreach’/’BRICS Plus’?”

These background briefings make it easier to understand the importance of the present piece. Singh’s article appeals to India’s pro-US faction, which is vying for replace the balancers’ role in calling the shots, while Vohra’s appeals to Russia’s pro-BRI one. Each is meant to mislead their respective expert audience into thinking that it’s not worth maintaining the Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership because Russia supposedly already defected to China while India supposedly already defected to the US.

Singh’s arguments are tailored to maximally fearmonger about China’s speculative influence over Russia among Indian experts whereas Vohra’s citing of prominent Indian defense and foreign policy experts is tailored to maximally fearmonger about the US’ speculative influence over India among Russian experts. The timing of these publications’ release by platforms that are read by foreign policy experts, their penning by Western-friendly Indian writers, and their narrative agenda suggests a level of coordination.

The intent is to sow the seeds of suspicion about the Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership by laundering speculation about Chinese and US influence over each respective party as supposed fact ahead of early July’s BRICS Foreign Ministers’ meeting that’s aimed at setting the agenda of October’s two summits. The West wants to tacitly assist Russia’s pro-BRI faction and India’s pro-US one so as to divide-and-rule these decades-long partners as a means of then returning the world to a form of Sino-US bi-multipolarity.

To be clear, Russia’s emergent faction is comprised of patriots who sincerely believe that their country’s objective national interests are best served by accelerating China’s superpower trajectory, but they can still be manipulated as the West’s “useful idiots” just like Prigozhin was as explained here. If they use what Vohra’s prominent Indian defense and foreign policy experts claimed to convince their balancing “rivals” that India already “defected” to the US, then the latter might agree to invite Pakistan to BRICS.

That could in turn be misinterpreted by India as the result of speculative Chinese influence over Russia along the lines of what Singh claimed, thus possibly leading to Prime Minister Modi informally boycotting October’s summit, which Russia might misinterpret as the result of speculative US influence over India. Bi-multipolarity might then return with a vengeance. It’s therefore imperative that Russia and India urgently clarify any misperceptions among them a soon as possible in order to avoid that dark future.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/theres-a ... ia-push-to

Is little Andy bearish on Hindu fascism because he fears Chinese communism? Just a thought...
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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