Russia today
Re: Russia today
Newly Released Footage Proves That Gershkovich & Whelan Were Indeed American Spies
Andrew Korybko
Aug 09, 2024
This debunks the fake news alleging that they were “innocent Americans taken hostage by Russia”.
The US Government (USG) insisted throughout the entire time of Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan’s imprisonment in Russia on espionage charges that these two were “wrongfully detained”, but newly released footage from the FSB proves that they were indeed American spies. Folks can view the footage of Gershkovich here and Whelan here, both of which have a brief video analysis from RT’s Murad Gazdiev embedded at the bottom that’s also worth watching to place everything into context.
Gershkovich’s includes audio which proves that he knew that he was soliciting classified defense secrets on behalf of the Wall Street Journal and then planned to mislead their readers by claiming that they only spoke to an “anonymous source” without mentioning that they also obtained documents about this. He also tried hiding the flash drive that he obtained during his meeting with his source in a Yekaterinburg restaurant when he was arrested, which the video specifically highlights to draw attention to.
As for Whelan, there’s no audio in his video but it shows him receiving a flash drive in a hotel bathroom from a friend who he claimed during his interrogation was allegedly giving him pictures of churches. RT’s brief analytical video amusingly mocks his story as absurd. After all, Gazdiev reminded everyone that friends share pictures over email or text, not via flash drives in hotel bathrooms. Just like Gershkovich, he also obviously knew that he was illegally soliciting classified secrets, in this case about FSB officers.
Nevertheless, CNN promptly spun this newly released footage as alleged evidence of “entrapment”, completely ignoring the fact that both men knowingly accepted flash drives from their Russian sources that they were told contained classified information about their host country’s national security. It’s altogether a very shoddy information product that reeks of desperation to distract from the visual evidence that those two were literally caught red-handed receiving Russian state secrets.
It can only be speculated whether CNN’s Nathan Hodge – their London-based Senior Row Editor who used to serve as the outlet’s Moscow bureau chief and whose official bio reveals that he was “embedded extensively with the US military” – is running interference for the USG on his own or as a favor to friends. In any case, the fact that someone with such “impressive credentials” from the Mainstream Media’s perspective produced such a shoddy information product shows how much the West is panicking.
CNN’s reaction is literally Orwellian too since one can’t help but recall what he wrote in 1984 about how “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” That’s precisely what’s happening here since average Westerners are being told that neither Gershkovich nor Whelan were caught red-handed, the first of whom even acknowledged on tape that he knew he was soliciting secrets and planned to mislead his audience about the origin of that information.
The reality is that foreign intelligence agencies have always had some of their spies disguise themselves as journalists and tourists, and the US isn’t the only country that does so, of course. Be that as it may, whenever its spies get busted after hiding under these covers, the US always plays dumb and denies that they were engaged in espionage. It relies on a combination of the public’s generally friendly attitude towards journalists and tourists as well as their negative one towards rival states to keep up the charade.
Ironically enough, this gaslighting ends up backfiring whenever the US’ detained spies are swapped with another country’s alleged ones like what happened during last week’s historic exchange. Whichever party is in opposition at the time can claim like Trump just did that actual Russian spies were traded for “American hostages”, which could supposedly “encourage more hostage-taking” and should thus have never happened. Even so, it remains unclear how much of the population is receptive to those claims.
The importance of the footage that the FSB just shared about Gershkovich and Whelan’s arrests is that it debunks the fake news alleging that they were “innocent Americans taken hostage by Russia”. They were bonafide spies who knew the risks that they were taking, especially Gershkovich, who exploited his cover as a journalist to engage in espionage and thus risked endangering his colleagues in other countries. Neither of them deserves the sympathy that they received from their misled fellow Americans.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/newly-re ... roves-that
******
Legislative activity
August 9, 7:13
A number of laws have been signed.
1. On restrictions on the use of civilian gadgets at the front, with reservations that those necessary for work can be used.
How all this will work will be shown by law enforcement practice. Interpretations of the law give a very broad interpretation of the question of what a necessary gadget is, as well as the question of who cannot use it. Which is not surprising, since the law was adopted in a hurry and rewritten literally on the go, against the backdrop of extensive controversy about it.
2. Commanders of military units, heads of military police agencies, garrison commanders received the right to make decisions on disciplinary arrest of military personnel participating in a special operation for committing gross disciplinary offenses. This decision strengthens the power of local commanders and expands their ability to maintain discipline in the troops. It is strange that they only matured to this in 2024.
3. A law was also signed banning the sale of energy drinks to minors. It's a given that minors will continue to consume them in a roundabout way, but the law itself will certainly reduce the overall consumption of energy drinks by minors.
4.
The law on the expulsion of migrants from the country has been tightened. Now, persons subject to expulsion from the country may have various rights and freedoms restricted. In general, this is a half-hearted measure aimed at satisfying public demands to tighten the screws in migration legislation. It is important to remember that any, even the most stringent, measures to control migration will not work with extensive corruption in the regulatory agencies, which devalue government efforts and public discontent.
5. Court fees have been radically raised. Their upper limit has been set from 200 thousand rubles to 10 million rubles in arbitration courts and from 60 thousand rubles to 900 thousand rubles in courts of general jurisdiction.
When applying to a court of general jurisdiction with a claim for an amount from 100 thousand rubles to 300 thousand rubles, the applicant will have to pay 4 thousand rubles to the treasury, plus 3% from the amount over 100 thousand rubles. In a dispute over an amount from 3 million rubles to 8 million rubles, the state fee will be 45 thousand rubles, plus 0.7% of the amount over 3 million rubles.
According to statistics from the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, claims within 100 thousand rubles make up more than 90% of all property claims in courts of general jurisdiction. For such claims, the fee will increase from 3.2 thousand to 4 thousand rubles.
The law also increases the amount of the state fee for initiating a case on the insolvency of a debtor: for organizations it will increase from 6 thousand rubles to 100 thousand rubles, for individuals - from 300 rubles to 10 thousand rubles. Filing a bankruptcy petition in court will still be free.
In general, going to court will now become more expensive.
6. A law on simplified transfer of confiscated firearms to the SVO has been signed. The law is about 2 years late, but better late than never. You could say they whined.
P.S. And one more thing. Victims from the Kursk region will be paid a one-time payment of 10,000 rubles, and the amounts of payments for the loss of property and housing during military operations will be determined additionally in the near future.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9314070.html
Google Translator
Andrew Korybko
Aug 09, 2024
This debunks the fake news alleging that they were “innocent Americans taken hostage by Russia”.
The US Government (USG) insisted throughout the entire time of Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan’s imprisonment in Russia on espionage charges that these two were “wrongfully detained”, but newly released footage from the FSB proves that they were indeed American spies. Folks can view the footage of Gershkovich here and Whelan here, both of which have a brief video analysis from RT’s Murad Gazdiev embedded at the bottom that’s also worth watching to place everything into context.
Gershkovich’s includes audio which proves that he knew that he was soliciting classified defense secrets on behalf of the Wall Street Journal and then planned to mislead their readers by claiming that they only spoke to an “anonymous source” without mentioning that they also obtained documents about this. He also tried hiding the flash drive that he obtained during his meeting with his source in a Yekaterinburg restaurant when he was arrested, which the video specifically highlights to draw attention to.
As for Whelan, there’s no audio in his video but it shows him receiving a flash drive in a hotel bathroom from a friend who he claimed during his interrogation was allegedly giving him pictures of churches. RT’s brief analytical video amusingly mocks his story as absurd. After all, Gazdiev reminded everyone that friends share pictures over email or text, not via flash drives in hotel bathrooms. Just like Gershkovich, he also obviously knew that he was illegally soliciting classified secrets, in this case about FSB officers.
Nevertheless, CNN promptly spun this newly released footage as alleged evidence of “entrapment”, completely ignoring the fact that both men knowingly accepted flash drives from their Russian sources that they were told contained classified information about their host country’s national security. It’s altogether a very shoddy information product that reeks of desperation to distract from the visual evidence that those two were literally caught red-handed receiving Russian state secrets.
It can only be speculated whether CNN’s Nathan Hodge – their London-based Senior Row Editor who used to serve as the outlet’s Moscow bureau chief and whose official bio reveals that he was “embedded extensively with the US military” – is running interference for the USG on his own or as a favor to friends. In any case, the fact that someone with such “impressive credentials” from the Mainstream Media’s perspective produced such a shoddy information product shows how much the West is panicking.
CNN’s reaction is literally Orwellian too since one can’t help but recall what he wrote in 1984 about how “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” That’s precisely what’s happening here since average Westerners are being told that neither Gershkovich nor Whelan were caught red-handed, the first of whom even acknowledged on tape that he knew he was soliciting secrets and planned to mislead his audience about the origin of that information.
The reality is that foreign intelligence agencies have always had some of their spies disguise themselves as journalists and tourists, and the US isn’t the only country that does so, of course. Be that as it may, whenever its spies get busted after hiding under these covers, the US always plays dumb and denies that they were engaged in espionage. It relies on a combination of the public’s generally friendly attitude towards journalists and tourists as well as their negative one towards rival states to keep up the charade.
Ironically enough, this gaslighting ends up backfiring whenever the US’ detained spies are swapped with another country’s alleged ones like what happened during last week’s historic exchange. Whichever party is in opposition at the time can claim like Trump just did that actual Russian spies were traded for “American hostages”, which could supposedly “encourage more hostage-taking” and should thus have never happened. Even so, it remains unclear how much of the population is receptive to those claims.
The importance of the footage that the FSB just shared about Gershkovich and Whelan’s arrests is that it debunks the fake news alleging that they were “innocent Americans taken hostage by Russia”. They were bonafide spies who knew the risks that they were taking, especially Gershkovich, who exploited his cover as a journalist to engage in espionage and thus risked endangering his colleagues in other countries. Neither of them deserves the sympathy that they received from their misled fellow Americans.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/newly-re ... roves-that
******
Legislative activity
August 9, 7:13
A number of laws have been signed.
1. On restrictions on the use of civilian gadgets at the front, with reservations that those necessary for work can be used.
How all this will work will be shown by law enforcement practice. Interpretations of the law give a very broad interpretation of the question of what a necessary gadget is, as well as the question of who cannot use it. Which is not surprising, since the law was adopted in a hurry and rewritten literally on the go, against the backdrop of extensive controversy about it.
2. Commanders of military units, heads of military police agencies, garrison commanders received the right to make decisions on disciplinary arrest of military personnel participating in a special operation for committing gross disciplinary offenses. This decision strengthens the power of local commanders and expands their ability to maintain discipline in the troops. It is strange that they only matured to this in 2024.
3. A law was also signed banning the sale of energy drinks to minors. It's a given that minors will continue to consume them in a roundabout way, but the law itself will certainly reduce the overall consumption of energy drinks by minors.
4.
The law on the expulsion of migrants from the country has been tightened. Now, persons subject to expulsion from the country may have various rights and freedoms restricted. In general, this is a half-hearted measure aimed at satisfying public demands to tighten the screws in migration legislation. It is important to remember that any, even the most stringent, measures to control migration will not work with extensive corruption in the regulatory agencies, which devalue government efforts and public discontent.
5. Court fees have been radically raised. Their upper limit has been set from 200 thousand rubles to 10 million rubles in arbitration courts and from 60 thousand rubles to 900 thousand rubles in courts of general jurisdiction.
When applying to a court of general jurisdiction with a claim for an amount from 100 thousand rubles to 300 thousand rubles, the applicant will have to pay 4 thousand rubles to the treasury, plus 3% from the amount over 100 thousand rubles. In a dispute over an amount from 3 million rubles to 8 million rubles, the state fee will be 45 thousand rubles, plus 0.7% of the amount over 3 million rubles.
According to statistics from the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, claims within 100 thousand rubles make up more than 90% of all property claims in courts of general jurisdiction. For such claims, the fee will increase from 3.2 thousand to 4 thousand rubles.
The law also increases the amount of the state fee for initiating a case on the insolvency of a debtor: for organizations it will increase from 6 thousand rubles to 100 thousand rubles, for individuals - from 300 rubles to 10 thousand rubles. Filing a bankruptcy petition in court will still be free.
In general, going to court will now become more expensive.
6. A law on simplified transfer of confiscated firearms to the SVO has been signed. The law is about 2 years late, but better late than never. You could say they whined.
P.S. And one more thing. Victims from the Kursk region will be paid a one-time payment of 10,000 rubles, and the amounts of payments for the loss of property and housing during military operations will be determined additionally in the near future.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9314070.html
Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
The Sanctions Are Working
In March 2022 I predicted some consequences of the sanctions imposed on Russia:
The first [map] shows the countries which banned Russian airplanes from their airspace. Russia in turn denied its airspace to operators from those countries. It will cost quite a bit for U.S. and EU airlines as their flight times and cost to and from Asia, which typically fly through Russian airspace, will now increase. Carriers from Asian countries will now easily out-compete U.S. and European airlines on these routes.
As British media reported yesterday:
British Airways is temporarily scrapping flights to Beijing until at least next year.
From October to at least November 2025 the carrier will not fly to the capital of China, although flights to Shanghai and Hong Kong will continue.
European carriers are not currently able to enter Russian airspace which makes flying to China more challenging as it takes a few hours longer than it used to.
Russia's civil aviation authority introduced the restrictions in February 2022, in retaliation to a British ban on the country's Aeroflot airline as part of sanctions for the war in Ukraine.
A spokesperson for British Airways said: “We will be pausing our route to Beijing from 26 October 2024, and we’re contacting any affected customers with rebooking options or to offer them a full refund. We continue to operate daily flights to Shanghai and Hong Kong."
The route only resumed operations on the route in June 2023, following a three-year pause due to the coronavirus pandemic.
At the time, British Airways described London-Beijing as “one of our most important routes”. The airline did not provide a reason for the suspension.
It is one of many Western airlines avoiding Russian airspace, which is adding to their flight times, fuel costs and complexity over how they deploy crew and aircraft.
British Airways isn't the only one.
A simple look on the map explains the issue:
As I continued on sanctions:
The second map shows those countries which enacted sanctions against Russia. The secondary effects of sanctions are likely to hurt these countries as much as they hurt Russia. The absence of African, Asian, Middle Eastern, Central and South American countries is quite telling.
It does not look like 'the world' or the 'international community' is backing the 'west'.
The U.S. also sanctioned all imports of oil products from Russia. President Biden has blamed Russia for the price increase that will inevitably follow. I don't believe that mid-term voters will accept that reasoning. European countries can not follow that step as their economies depend of imports of oil and gas from Russia and will continue to do so for years to come.[/img]
Which fits to this other recent headline:
French imports of Russia's liquified natural gas surge, and Ukraine supporters seek a stop
Shipments of Russian liquified natural gas to France more than doubled the first half of this year, according to new analyses of trade data, at a time when Europe has tried to pull back from energy purchases that help finance the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine.
Europe has restricted oil imports from Russia, but natural gas is still allowed. And while companies in France are importing the most, one analysis found EU countries overall imported 7% more Russian LNG, natural gas that has been chilled and liquified for easier ocean transport, in the first half of this year compared to the same period a year ago.
Meanwhile in Germany, which currently has a rather crazy government, industrial production is further declining while bankruptcies have reached a record height:
Germany, with its energy-intensive industry and shortage of raw materials, has been particularly affected by the rapid rise in energy prices. Large corporations such as BASF are closing factories because management no longer believes it can efficiently produce essential chemicals. There is a trend of deindustrialization.
The volume of orders from German machine-building and engineering companies decreased by 12 percent in the first half of 2024, according to the industry association VDMA. year to year in real terms. Orders from Germany itself fell especially sharply - by 18 percent. Orders from foreign companies fell by 9 percent. Metallurgical corporations are also suffering, as demand for their products is also falling.
All this could be fixed with some sanity and the discarding of useless sanctions.
Posted by b on August 10, 2024 at 10:36 UTC | Permalink
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/08/t ... .html#more
******
Let Me Be First To Say This...
... and I am not a pilot, I hate flying and, in general, my aviation experience is reduced to drinking vodka with combat pilots, BUT... while fanboys masturbate to sexy and enormously powerful SU-35s and SU-57s, what about SU-34, this ugly duckling? I repeat the video of this aircraft dropping a monstrous FAB-3000...
But, this is the only aircraft in the world in its class which is capable of carrying not just monstrous munitions but... hypersonic weapons and even strategic cruise missiles with the range of 8,000 km.
Крылатые ракеты большой дальности адаптированы к пускам с фронтовых истребителей-бомбардировщиков Су-34. Об этом сообщает РИА Новости со ссылкой на информированный источник. По словам собеседника агентства, "ракета не новая, как и самолет, но раньше они в одном комплексе не применялись, и новое решение повышает вариативность применения как ракеты, так и самолета". Эта новость не вызвала большого ажиотажа в СМИ. А ведь она более сенсационна, чем известие о том, что Су-34 теперь может нести и гиперзвуковые ракеты комплекса "Кинжал". Дело в том, что крылатая ракета большой дальности, которую сможет нести Су-34, хотя тип ее и не назван, скорее всего относится к стратегической. Во всяком случае раньше их носителями являлись только стратегические Ту-95 и Ту-160, а также дальний, почти стратегический Ту-22М. Таким образом, Су-34 - первый в мире тяжелый истребитель, получивший возможности стратегического ракетоносца. Су-34, вне всякого сомнения, самолет уникальный. Сопоставимых с ним по боевым и летно-техническим характеристикам нет ни в одной стране мира. В нем сочетаются возможности тяжелого истребителя, дальнего перехватчика и бомбардировщика. А теперь и ракетоносного стратега. Кстати, на Су-34 установлено 7 мировых рекордов, не побитых до настоящего времени.
Translation: Long-range cruise missiles have been adapted for launches from Su-34 frontline fighter-bombers. This was reported by RIA Novosti with reference to an informed source. According to the agency's source, "the missile is not new, just like the aircraft, but they have not been used in the same system before, and the new solution increases the variability of using both the missile and the aircraft." This news did not cause much excitement in the media. But it is more sensational than the news that the Su-34 can now carry hypersonic missiles of the Kinzhal complex. The fact is that the long-range cruise missile that the Su-34 will be able to carry, although its type has not been named, most likely refers to a strategic one. In any case, previously only the strategic Tu-95 and Tu-160, as well as the long-range, almost strategic Tu-22M, were their carriers. Thus, the Su-34 is the world's first heavy fighter to receive the capabilities of a strategic missile carrier. The Su-34 is, without a doubt, a unique aircraft. No other country in the world has anything comparable to it in combat and flight performance. It combines the capabilities of a heavy fighter, a long-range interceptor and a bomber. And now, a missile-carrying strategist. By the way, the Su-34 has set 7 world records that have not been broken to this day.
The actual number of these aircraft deployed is unknown, but this number is in hundreds now...
But, there has never been anything like this in the history of aviation.
Behold, the legend, with unmatched combat record...
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/08 ... -this.html
In March 2022 I predicted some consequences of the sanctions imposed on Russia:
The first [map] shows the countries which banned Russian airplanes from their airspace. Russia in turn denied its airspace to operators from those countries. It will cost quite a bit for U.S. and EU airlines as their flight times and cost to and from Asia, which typically fly through Russian airspace, will now increase. Carriers from Asian countries will now easily out-compete U.S. and European airlines on these routes.
As British media reported yesterday:
British Airways is temporarily scrapping flights to Beijing until at least next year.
From October to at least November 2025 the carrier will not fly to the capital of China, although flights to Shanghai and Hong Kong will continue.
European carriers are not currently able to enter Russian airspace which makes flying to China more challenging as it takes a few hours longer than it used to.
Russia's civil aviation authority introduced the restrictions in February 2022, in retaliation to a British ban on the country's Aeroflot airline as part of sanctions for the war in Ukraine.
A spokesperson for British Airways said: “We will be pausing our route to Beijing from 26 October 2024, and we’re contacting any affected customers with rebooking options or to offer them a full refund. We continue to operate daily flights to Shanghai and Hong Kong."
The route only resumed operations on the route in June 2023, following a three-year pause due to the coronavirus pandemic.
At the time, British Airways described London-Beijing as “one of our most important routes”. The airline did not provide a reason for the suspension.
It is one of many Western airlines avoiding Russian airspace, which is adding to their flight times, fuel costs and complexity over how they deploy crew and aircraft.
British Airways isn't the only one.
A simple look on the map explains the issue:
As I continued on sanctions:
The second map shows those countries which enacted sanctions against Russia. The secondary effects of sanctions are likely to hurt these countries as much as they hurt Russia. The absence of African, Asian, Middle Eastern, Central and South American countries is quite telling.
It does not look like 'the world' or the 'international community' is backing the 'west'.
The U.S. also sanctioned all imports of oil products from Russia. President Biden has blamed Russia for the price increase that will inevitably follow. I don't believe that mid-term voters will accept that reasoning. European countries can not follow that step as their economies depend of imports of oil and gas from Russia and will continue to do so for years to come.[/img]
Which fits to this other recent headline:
French imports of Russia's liquified natural gas surge, and Ukraine supporters seek a stop
Shipments of Russian liquified natural gas to France more than doubled the first half of this year, according to new analyses of trade data, at a time when Europe has tried to pull back from energy purchases that help finance the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine.
Europe has restricted oil imports from Russia, but natural gas is still allowed. And while companies in France are importing the most, one analysis found EU countries overall imported 7% more Russian LNG, natural gas that has been chilled and liquified for easier ocean transport, in the first half of this year compared to the same period a year ago.
Meanwhile in Germany, which currently has a rather crazy government, industrial production is further declining while bankruptcies have reached a record height:
Germany, with its energy-intensive industry and shortage of raw materials, has been particularly affected by the rapid rise in energy prices. Large corporations such as BASF are closing factories because management no longer believes it can efficiently produce essential chemicals. There is a trend of deindustrialization.
The volume of orders from German machine-building and engineering companies decreased by 12 percent in the first half of 2024, according to the industry association VDMA. year to year in real terms. Orders from Germany itself fell especially sharply - by 18 percent. Orders from foreign companies fell by 9 percent. Metallurgical corporations are also suffering, as demand for their products is also falling.
All this could be fixed with some sanity and the discarding of useless sanctions.
Posted by b on August 10, 2024 at 10:36 UTC | Permalink
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/08/t ... .html#more
******
Let Me Be First To Say This...
... and I am not a pilot, I hate flying and, in general, my aviation experience is reduced to drinking vodka with combat pilots, BUT... while fanboys masturbate to sexy and enormously powerful SU-35s and SU-57s, what about SU-34, this ugly duckling? I repeat the video of this aircraft dropping a monstrous FAB-3000...
But, this is the only aircraft in the world in its class which is capable of carrying not just monstrous munitions but... hypersonic weapons and even strategic cruise missiles with the range of 8,000 km.
Крылатые ракеты большой дальности адаптированы к пускам с фронтовых истребителей-бомбардировщиков Су-34. Об этом сообщает РИА Новости со ссылкой на информированный источник. По словам собеседника агентства, "ракета не новая, как и самолет, но раньше они в одном комплексе не применялись, и новое решение повышает вариативность применения как ракеты, так и самолета". Эта новость не вызвала большого ажиотажа в СМИ. А ведь она более сенсационна, чем известие о том, что Су-34 теперь может нести и гиперзвуковые ракеты комплекса "Кинжал". Дело в том, что крылатая ракета большой дальности, которую сможет нести Су-34, хотя тип ее и не назван, скорее всего относится к стратегической. Во всяком случае раньше их носителями являлись только стратегические Ту-95 и Ту-160, а также дальний, почти стратегический Ту-22М. Таким образом, Су-34 - первый в мире тяжелый истребитель, получивший возможности стратегического ракетоносца. Су-34, вне всякого сомнения, самолет уникальный. Сопоставимых с ним по боевым и летно-техническим характеристикам нет ни в одной стране мира. В нем сочетаются возможности тяжелого истребителя, дальнего перехватчика и бомбардировщика. А теперь и ракетоносного стратега. Кстати, на Су-34 установлено 7 мировых рекордов, не побитых до настоящего времени.
Translation: Long-range cruise missiles have been adapted for launches from Su-34 frontline fighter-bombers. This was reported by RIA Novosti with reference to an informed source. According to the agency's source, "the missile is not new, just like the aircraft, but they have not been used in the same system before, and the new solution increases the variability of using both the missile and the aircraft." This news did not cause much excitement in the media. But it is more sensational than the news that the Su-34 can now carry hypersonic missiles of the Kinzhal complex. The fact is that the long-range cruise missile that the Su-34 will be able to carry, although its type has not been named, most likely refers to a strategic one. In any case, previously only the strategic Tu-95 and Tu-160, as well as the long-range, almost strategic Tu-22M, were their carriers. Thus, the Su-34 is the world's first heavy fighter to receive the capabilities of a strategic missile carrier. The Su-34 is, without a doubt, a unique aircraft. No other country in the world has anything comparable to it in combat and flight performance. It combines the capabilities of a heavy fighter, a long-range interceptor and a bomber. And now, a missile-carrying strategist. By the way, the Su-34 has set 7 world records that have not been broken to this day.
The actual number of these aircraft deployed is unknown, but this number is in hundreds now...
But, there has never been anything like this in the history of aviation.
Behold, the legend, with unmatched combat record...
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/08 ... -this.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
Russian television starts reporting destruction of Ukrainian forces in Kursk
In my interviews of the past two days which have been widely seen, I maintained that Russian television coverage of the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk province (oblast) has been almost entirely devoted to the humanitarian relief efforts of governmental agencies and civil society to provide for the needs of the 140,000 or so displaced residents of the territory now held by Ukrainian forces. Roughly half of these evacuees are now living in hastily built tent cities near the capital; the other half has been sent onward by train and bus to central Russia. It is said that their time as displaced persons may be lengthy because the occupiers were damaging critical infrastructure such as water and electricity supply which will take time to restore. As for the military operations in Kursk, Russian television has been mostly silent, only putting up images of some artillery and missile strikes on Ukrainian tanks and armored personnel carriers, and of the rather spectacular destruction by drones and missiles of a big fuel storage center on the Ukrainian side of the border.
Yesterday what I saw on the authoritative talk show ‘The Great Game’was a very different picture: the panelists were speaking of the Ukrainian expedition in Kursk as an abject failure which is bound to end in the total destruction of the 10,000 or more men that Kiev has deployed, and that is hastening the advance of the main Russian forces in Donetsk province now that the Ukrainian defenders have been drawn down to serve in Kursk.
It would appear that this change in the situation on the ground and shift to Russian confidence of victory is directly related to the successful attack on Ukrainian fuel dumps.
Napoleon’s invasion force in 1812 was seriously disabled by Russian peasants and noblemen setting fire to their properties and depriving the critically important French cavalry of forage. Horses died and their riders were left to fend for themselves. What we are apparently watching now is an updated version of the same scenario.
The Ukrainian tanks and armored personnel vehicles inside Kursk need refueling and failing that they are being abandoned by the Ukrainian troops whom they have sheltered, as we were told on ‘The Great Game’ yesterday.
This means that the NATO heavy equipment which brought the Ukrainians into Kursk is now stalled in place, becoming an easy target for Russian forces. The Ukrainian infantry is left to withdraw as best it can on foot, which is a formula for disaster.
See ‘The Great Game’ part 1, 15 August
https://rutube.ru/video/f4bdd3882ea23e9 ... e37f8c09d/
The same panelists also discussed the war of words now going on between Kiev and Washington over the extent of American and NATO involvement in the planning and execution of the raid into Kursk. They saw in Washington’s denials of involvement in the planning an attempt to insure themselves against being considered co-belligerents by Russia. Of course, official Russia takes these denials with a grain of salt. Nikolai Patrushev, President Putin’s closest aid in security matters, is quoted in today’s news as saying these denials ‘do not correspond to reality.’
As a separate but related matter, panelists on ‘The Great Game,’ also noted the exquisite timing of newly announced results of the German investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, wherein a Ukrainian national, recently returned to Kiev from a safe haven in Poland, is now wanted on a European arrest order for his role in setting the explosives on the pipeline. It is further announced in Germany that the operation had the personal approval of President Zelensky. This matter, in combination with U.S. and German assertions that they were ‘surprised’ by Ukraine’s attack on Kursk in which they allegedly had no role, all point to the coming removal of Zelensky from power and his replacement by some new puppet of the West.
Under internationally recognized rules of war, American involvement in an act of aggression against the Russian Federation’s traditional borders would be a casus belli and Russia has the right, if not the obligation to declare war on Washington at any time.
This heightening of the East-West tensions is accompanied, ominously, by discussion on Russian talk shows, including last night’s ‘Great Game,’ of changes being made to Russia’s doctrine on use of tactical nuclear weapons. Note that the issue is not whether such weapons could or should be used in Ukraine. No, what is at issue is the use of tactical nuclear weapons against any and all NATO nations that are providing attack weapons like tanks, personnel carriers and missiles to Kiev for use on Russian homeland territory.
Without question the Ukraine war is entering the end game phase. The Russians are as of yesterday ever more confident of victory, of a Ukrainian capitulation. They are also preparing themselves for a showdown with NATO that may well have a nuclear dimension.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/08/16/ ... -in-kursk/
******
Kazakhstan’s Ambitious Regionalization Vision Presents Obstacles & Opportunities For Russia
Andrew Korybko
Aug 16, 2024
Trilateral Russian-Iranian-Indian cooperation could gently balance Turkiye’s rapidly expanding influence in Central Asia.
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev shared an ambitious regionalization vision in his de facto manifesto earlier this month titled “The Renaissance of Central Asia: Towards Sustainable Development and Prosperity”. He began by emphasizing the five countries’ roles in the Great Silk Road and participation in a slew of multilateral formats. Then he wrote that it’s time for them to become “a separate regional actor in international relations, capable of becoming a new center of global gravity.”
This can be done through more comprehensive cooperation, particularly with regards to international logistics and regional security. The first refers to the Belt & Road Initiative, the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), and the Middle Corridor, while the second remains ambiguous, but it’s notable that he omitted mention of the CSTO while referencing the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) elsewhere in his manifesto. This hints that Kazakhstan will soon distance itself from Russia even more than it already has.
About that, it was explained last September that “Kazakhstan’s Pro-EU Pivot Poses A Challenge For The Sino-Russo Entente” since it creates space for their geopolitical rivals to expand their regional presence to those two’s detriment. Astana complies with Western sanctions, including in the financial sector, even though a Moscow-led CSTO intervention saved Tokayev from a Hybrid War coup in January 2022. This policy is much more important than Kazakhstan symbolically declining to condemn Russia at the UNGA.
Nevertheless, Tokayev also wrote that “One of the priority aspects of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy is the pursuit of balance. We always adhere to the principle of ‘Peace Above All’”, which shows that he’s justifying the aforesaid approach on the basis of geopolitical balancing and promoting peace. That’s his right, but proposing “to establish a regional security architecture” without noting that three of the five regional states are already CSTO members suggests that he envisages a non-Russian-led security order.
A purely intra-Central Asian one is unrealistic since Turkmenistan is a militarily neutral state per its constitution while lethal clashes broke out between CSTO members Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan over their disputed border in September 2022. Unlike the other four countries, Tajikistan isn’t a Turkic nation, but a Persian-speaking Iranian one, which makes it a regional outlier. Of relevance, Iran built a drone factory in Tajikistan in early 2022, while Kyrgyzstan is a Turkish drone client.
Any worsening of Iranian-Turkish ties, which could follow the worsening of ties between Iran and Turkiye’s Azerbaijani ally, might therefore fuel tensions in Central Asia between their Tajik and Kyrgyz partners. Even though those two countries are under Russia’s CSTO mutual defense umbrella, Moscow might be unable to manage their externally exacerbated tensions if there’s another eruption of violence between them, which could speed up the decline of its regional influence.
Complicating matters even more is that Kyrgyzstan is a crucial logistics partner for Russia and is also in the US’ regime change crosshairs, while Tajikistan is indispensable for keeping Afghan-emanating terrorist threats at bay, so the Kremlin would struggle to choose sides if they clashed again. This insight shows that there are objective grounds for Tokayev to question the future of the region’s Russian-led security order, though it also shows that his vision of a purely intra-Central Asian one is unrealistic.
Any steps that he takes to further erode Russia’s regional influence would be to Turkiye’s benefit by default considering the impressive inroads that it’s achieved over the past few years through the OTS. This Turkish-led bloc openly aspires to enhance security cooperation between its members, which include Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan while Hungary, the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”, and Turkmenistan are observers.
The Valdai Club’s Anna Machina published a timely piece earlier this month about the “Turkish Challenge in Central Asia”, which candidly touches upon Turkiye’s many competitive advantages there. Shared socio-cultural and historical roots play a major role in the OTS’ Central Asian members’ embrace of Turkiye, with this soft power basis leading to the creation of new influence networks – especially among the regional elite – that can hasten the decline of Russian influence there.
The Kremlin’s challenge is that that the region has begun to sour on the memory of their shared Soviet past after 1991 due to the embrace of nationalist narratives pushed by local activists and foreign-backed “NGOs”. The lingering legacy of their centrally planned economy, linguistic ties, and Russia’s open borders policy with Central Asia have kept relations pragmatic up until now, but everything is changing with the new generation, many of whom are attracted to Turkiye and ambivalent at best towards Russia.
These trends suggest that Russia’s previously dominant influence there might inevitably be replaced by Turkiye’s, whose sway is more sustainable due to socio-cultural and historical factors. The only other actor capable in theory of competing with Turkiye in this regard is Iran due to its civilizational legacy, but it doesn’t extend throughout all of the region and hasn’t left much of a linguistic mark. Moreover, its political-religious system isn’t popular in Central Asia, thus further weakening its soft power appeal.
Iran also doesn’t have any equivalent of the OTS, instead preferring to employ the SCO as the means for expanding its influence into Central Asia, albeit only at the state-to-state level. Economic ties can grow through the NSTC, however, with Iran facilitating India’s trade with the region and then finding opportunities to increase its own with them too. This could lead to the creation of new influence networks at the lower level, but they’re unlikely to reach the elite one that Turkiye is actively cultivating.
Even so, trilateral Russian-Iranian-Indian cooperation could gently balance Turkiye’s rapidly expanding influence in all Central Asian spheres and countries (including Tajikistan even though Kyrgyzstan is much more important for Ankara), with each playing a complementary role in this respect. Russia’s security influence is unlikely to fade anytime soon, Iran is a fellow Muslim country with deep civilizational connections to the region, while India is a rising economic superpower.
If properly coordinated, then they could do their part in ensuring that Turkiye doesn’t become the dominant player in Central Asia, which aligns with Tokayev’s explicitly stated “pursuit of balance”. Circling back to his manifesto, there’s nothing therein that impedes this proposal, so the first step is for Russia to seriously explore the possibility of working in tandem with fellow NSTC partners Iran and India to this end. This could initially occur via informal diplomatic probing as well as Track 1.5 and II dialogues.
While some Russian policymakers might insist that their country can weather the “Turkish challenge in Central Asia” on its own, the objectively existing trends show that continuing to “go it alone” actually risk accelerating the decline of its regional influence. Candidly speaking, it’s long-overdue for Russia to accept that Turkiye has many more competitive advantages and accordingly partner with those like Iran and India that can help it compensate for this to a degree, all with a view towards balancing the region.
So long as Tokayev’s ambitious regionalization vision is well-intentioned and not a cover for distancing Kazakhstan from Russian even more than it already has, perhaps at the West’s behest, then the gist of his proposals could facilitate the transition to a new non-Russian-led order that isn’t Turkish-dominated. He’s basically calling for more comprehensive integration in order to improve the region’s collective negotiating position vis-à-vis major powers, which is sensible and pragmatic.
After all, the asymmetry between each of these five countries and Russia, China, Turkiye, Iran, and India is self-evident, but one day negotiating with them as a group on whatever it may be could result in better deals. This could come about if Central Asia created its own ASEAN-like organization, though the obstacle is that Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are part of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), so they’re obligated to adhere to previously agreed-upon tariffs and everything else that membership entails.
That’s not an insurmountable problem and could actually help retain the economic dimension of Russian influence in the region by creating a compatible regional trade bloc that in essence expands these same Russian-led agreed-upon standards to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and possibly also Turkmenistan. Likewise, the EAEU’s new free trade deal with Iran also involves the bloc’s two Central Asian members, as would any future one with India. These can suffice for keeping a check on Turkish economic influence there.
Considering this, while Tokayev’s vision is unrealistic in some respects as regards his vague security proposal that might understandably be seen with suspicion by some in Moscow, the overall spirit is sound since his manifesto is meant to help the region adapt to the ongoing global systemic transition. For that to happen most effectively, Russia must finally realize that it needs to work closer with Iran and India in Central Asia, which the formidable “Turkish challenge” there might finally incentivize it to do.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/kazakhst ... nalization
In my interviews of the past two days which have been widely seen, I maintained that Russian television coverage of the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk province (oblast) has been almost entirely devoted to the humanitarian relief efforts of governmental agencies and civil society to provide for the needs of the 140,000 or so displaced residents of the territory now held by Ukrainian forces. Roughly half of these evacuees are now living in hastily built tent cities near the capital; the other half has been sent onward by train and bus to central Russia. It is said that their time as displaced persons may be lengthy because the occupiers were damaging critical infrastructure such as water and electricity supply which will take time to restore. As for the military operations in Kursk, Russian television has been mostly silent, only putting up images of some artillery and missile strikes on Ukrainian tanks and armored personnel carriers, and of the rather spectacular destruction by drones and missiles of a big fuel storage center on the Ukrainian side of the border.
Yesterday what I saw on the authoritative talk show ‘The Great Game’was a very different picture: the panelists were speaking of the Ukrainian expedition in Kursk as an abject failure which is bound to end in the total destruction of the 10,000 or more men that Kiev has deployed, and that is hastening the advance of the main Russian forces in Donetsk province now that the Ukrainian defenders have been drawn down to serve in Kursk.
It would appear that this change in the situation on the ground and shift to Russian confidence of victory is directly related to the successful attack on Ukrainian fuel dumps.
Napoleon’s invasion force in 1812 was seriously disabled by Russian peasants and noblemen setting fire to their properties and depriving the critically important French cavalry of forage. Horses died and their riders were left to fend for themselves. What we are apparently watching now is an updated version of the same scenario.
The Ukrainian tanks and armored personnel vehicles inside Kursk need refueling and failing that they are being abandoned by the Ukrainian troops whom they have sheltered, as we were told on ‘The Great Game’ yesterday.
This means that the NATO heavy equipment which brought the Ukrainians into Kursk is now stalled in place, becoming an easy target for Russian forces. The Ukrainian infantry is left to withdraw as best it can on foot, which is a formula for disaster.
See ‘The Great Game’ part 1, 15 August
https://rutube.ru/video/f4bdd3882ea23e9 ... e37f8c09d/
The same panelists also discussed the war of words now going on between Kiev and Washington over the extent of American and NATO involvement in the planning and execution of the raid into Kursk. They saw in Washington’s denials of involvement in the planning an attempt to insure themselves against being considered co-belligerents by Russia. Of course, official Russia takes these denials with a grain of salt. Nikolai Patrushev, President Putin’s closest aid in security matters, is quoted in today’s news as saying these denials ‘do not correspond to reality.’
As a separate but related matter, panelists on ‘The Great Game,’ also noted the exquisite timing of newly announced results of the German investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, wherein a Ukrainian national, recently returned to Kiev from a safe haven in Poland, is now wanted on a European arrest order for his role in setting the explosives on the pipeline. It is further announced in Germany that the operation had the personal approval of President Zelensky. This matter, in combination with U.S. and German assertions that they were ‘surprised’ by Ukraine’s attack on Kursk in which they allegedly had no role, all point to the coming removal of Zelensky from power and his replacement by some new puppet of the West.
Under internationally recognized rules of war, American involvement in an act of aggression against the Russian Federation’s traditional borders would be a casus belli and Russia has the right, if not the obligation to declare war on Washington at any time.
This heightening of the East-West tensions is accompanied, ominously, by discussion on Russian talk shows, including last night’s ‘Great Game,’ of changes being made to Russia’s doctrine on use of tactical nuclear weapons. Note that the issue is not whether such weapons could or should be used in Ukraine. No, what is at issue is the use of tactical nuclear weapons against any and all NATO nations that are providing attack weapons like tanks, personnel carriers and missiles to Kiev for use on Russian homeland territory.
Without question the Ukraine war is entering the end game phase. The Russians are as of yesterday ever more confident of victory, of a Ukrainian capitulation. They are also preparing themselves for a showdown with NATO that may well have a nuclear dimension.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/08/16/ ... -in-kursk/
******
Kazakhstan’s Ambitious Regionalization Vision Presents Obstacles & Opportunities For Russia
Andrew Korybko
Aug 16, 2024
Trilateral Russian-Iranian-Indian cooperation could gently balance Turkiye’s rapidly expanding influence in Central Asia.
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev shared an ambitious regionalization vision in his de facto manifesto earlier this month titled “The Renaissance of Central Asia: Towards Sustainable Development and Prosperity”. He began by emphasizing the five countries’ roles in the Great Silk Road and participation in a slew of multilateral formats. Then he wrote that it’s time for them to become “a separate regional actor in international relations, capable of becoming a new center of global gravity.”
This can be done through more comprehensive cooperation, particularly with regards to international logistics and regional security. The first refers to the Belt & Road Initiative, the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), and the Middle Corridor, while the second remains ambiguous, but it’s notable that he omitted mention of the CSTO while referencing the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) elsewhere in his manifesto. This hints that Kazakhstan will soon distance itself from Russia even more than it already has.
About that, it was explained last September that “Kazakhstan’s Pro-EU Pivot Poses A Challenge For The Sino-Russo Entente” since it creates space for their geopolitical rivals to expand their regional presence to those two’s detriment. Astana complies with Western sanctions, including in the financial sector, even though a Moscow-led CSTO intervention saved Tokayev from a Hybrid War coup in January 2022. This policy is much more important than Kazakhstan symbolically declining to condemn Russia at the UNGA.
Nevertheless, Tokayev also wrote that “One of the priority aspects of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy is the pursuit of balance. We always adhere to the principle of ‘Peace Above All’”, which shows that he’s justifying the aforesaid approach on the basis of geopolitical balancing and promoting peace. That’s his right, but proposing “to establish a regional security architecture” without noting that three of the five regional states are already CSTO members suggests that he envisages a non-Russian-led security order.
A purely intra-Central Asian one is unrealistic since Turkmenistan is a militarily neutral state per its constitution while lethal clashes broke out between CSTO members Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan over their disputed border in September 2022. Unlike the other four countries, Tajikistan isn’t a Turkic nation, but a Persian-speaking Iranian one, which makes it a regional outlier. Of relevance, Iran built a drone factory in Tajikistan in early 2022, while Kyrgyzstan is a Turkish drone client.
Any worsening of Iranian-Turkish ties, which could follow the worsening of ties between Iran and Turkiye’s Azerbaijani ally, might therefore fuel tensions in Central Asia between their Tajik and Kyrgyz partners. Even though those two countries are under Russia’s CSTO mutual defense umbrella, Moscow might be unable to manage their externally exacerbated tensions if there’s another eruption of violence between them, which could speed up the decline of its regional influence.
Complicating matters even more is that Kyrgyzstan is a crucial logistics partner for Russia and is also in the US’ regime change crosshairs, while Tajikistan is indispensable for keeping Afghan-emanating terrorist threats at bay, so the Kremlin would struggle to choose sides if they clashed again. This insight shows that there are objective grounds for Tokayev to question the future of the region’s Russian-led security order, though it also shows that his vision of a purely intra-Central Asian one is unrealistic.
Any steps that he takes to further erode Russia’s regional influence would be to Turkiye’s benefit by default considering the impressive inroads that it’s achieved over the past few years through the OTS. This Turkish-led bloc openly aspires to enhance security cooperation between its members, which include Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan while Hungary, the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”, and Turkmenistan are observers.
The Valdai Club’s Anna Machina published a timely piece earlier this month about the “Turkish Challenge in Central Asia”, which candidly touches upon Turkiye’s many competitive advantages there. Shared socio-cultural and historical roots play a major role in the OTS’ Central Asian members’ embrace of Turkiye, with this soft power basis leading to the creation of new influence networks – especially among the regional elite – that can hasten the decline of Russian influence there.
The Kremlin’s challenge is that that the region has begun to sour on the memory of their shared Soviet past after 1991 due to the embrace of nationalist narratives pushed by local activists and foreign-backed “NGOs”. The lingering legacy of their centrally planned economy, linguistic ties, and Russia’s open borders policy with Central Asia have kept relations pragmatic up until now, but everything is changing with the new generation, many of whom are attracted to Turkiye and ambivalent at best towards Russia.
These trends suggest that Russia’s previously dominant influence there might inevitably be replaced by Turkiye’s, whose sway is more sustainable due to socio-cultural and historical factors. The only other actor capable in theory of competing with Turkiye in this regard is Iran due to its civilizational legacy, but it doesn’t extend throughout all of the region and hasn’t left much of a linguistic mark. Moreover, its political-religious system isn’t popular in Central Asia, thus further weakening its soft power appeal.
Iran also doesn’t have any equivalent of the OTS, instead preferring to employ the SCO as the means for expanding its influence into Central Asia, albeit only at the state-to-state level. Economic ties can grow through the NSTC, however, with Iran facilitating India’s trade with the region and then finding opportunities to increase its own with them too. This could lead to the creation of new influence networks at the lower level, but they’re unlikely to reach the elite one that Turkiye is actively cultivating.
Even so, trilateral Russian-Iranian-Indian cooperation could gently balance Turkiye’s rapidly expanding influence in all Central Asian spheres and countries (including Tajikistan even though Kyrgyzstan is much more important for Ankara), with each playing a complementary role in this respect. Russia’s security influence is unlikely to fade anytime soon, Iran is a fellow Muslim country with deep civilizational connections to the region, while India is a rising economic superpower.
If properly coordinated, then they could do their part in ensuring that Turkiye doesn’t become the dominant player in Central Asia, which aligns with Tokayev’s explicitly stated “pursuit of balance”. Circling back to his manifesto, there’s nothing therein that impedes this proposal, so the first step is for Russia to seriously explore the possibility of working in tandem with fellow NSTC partners Iran and India to this end. This could initially occur via informal diplomatic probing as well as Track 1.5 and II dialogues.
While some Russian policymakers might insist that their country can weather the “Turkish challenge in Central Asia” on its own, the objectively existing trends show that continuing to “go it alone” actually risk accelerating the decline of its regional influence. Candidly speaking, it’s long-overdue for Russia to accept that Turkiye has many more competitive advantages and accordingly partner with those like Iran and India that can help it compensate for this to a degree, all with a view towards balancing the region.
So long as Tokayev’s ambitious regionalization vision is well-intentioned and not a cover for distancing Kazakhstan from Russian even more than it already has, perhaps at the West’s behest, then the gist of his proposals could facilitate the transition to a new non-Russian-led order that isn’t Turkish-dominated. He’s basically calling for more comprehensive integration in order to improve the region’s collective negotiating position vis-à-vis major powers, which is sensible and pragmatic.
After all, the asymmetry between each of these five countries and Russia, China, Turkiye, Iran, and India is self-evident, but one day negotiating with them as a group on whatever it may be could result in better deals. This could come about if Central Asia created its own ASEAN-like organization, though the obstacle is that Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are part of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), so they’re obligated to adhere to previously agreed-upon tariffs and everything else that membership entails.
That’s not an insurmountable problem and could actually help retain the economic dimension of Russian influence in the region by creating a compatible regional trade bloc that in essence expands these same Russian-led agreed-upon standards to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and possibly also Turkmenistan. Likewise, the EAEU’s new free trade deal with Iran also involves the bloc’s two Central Asian members, as would any future one with India. These can suffice for keeping a check on Turkish economic influence there.
Considering this, while Tokayev’s vision is unrealistic in some respects as regards his vague security proposal that might understandably be seen with suspicion by some in Moscow, the overall spirit is sound since his manifesto is meant to help the region adapt to the ongoing global systemic transition. For that to happen most effectively, Russia must finally realize that it needs to work closer with Iran and India in Central Asia, which the formidable “Turkish challenge” there might finally incentivize it to do.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/kazakhst ... nalization
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
America’s JASSM air to ground stealth missiles and Russian plans to use tactical nukes
My remarks in today’s report of latest news from Russia’s premier talk show ‘The Great Game’ will be brief and to the point: the USA is continuing to provoke a sharp escalation in the conflict with Russia over Ukraine that brings us two giant steps closer to a Russian nuclear attack on a NATO country.
See https://rutube.ru/video/8a303bf6f37548f ... 2342d87be/
The latest development worthy of discussion in last night’s edition of the talk show is the likely fitting of America’s air to ground JASSM missiles on the F16s that have been and will continue to be delivered to Ukraine.
The acronym of this Lockheed produced weapon stands for Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile and its salient features are its range and its nearly undetectable characteristics in flight. The missile apparently has two basic variants, one for approximately 400 km and the other for 900 km.
The logic for fitting a couple of these missiles on an F-16 is to enable the jet to strike deep into Russia, as far as Moscow and beyond, even if they fly well back from the Russia-controlled territory in Ukraine to be safe from Moscow’s advanced air defense systems.
Thus far, what Washington has acknowledged supplying to Ukraine’s F-16s has been solely useful for defense in dogfights with Russian planes and for striking near-lying ground targets within Russia-occupied Ukraine. In short, the materiel delivered so far does not threaten Russia’s air bases and munitions caches at strategic depth within the Russian Federation, as Zelensky has been demanding.
From the Russian perspective, as explained on ‘The Great Game,’ when Washington says it is considering delivery of the JASSM to Ukraine, that means that the weapons have already been shipped to Poland and/or Romania for handover to Kiev. It may also mean that these missiles are already in Ukraine. And this poses an entirely unacceptable threat which Russia is obliged to neutralize.
In practical terms, the only way to stop JASSM in flight is to destroy the F-16s that launch them. What this means is for Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons against the air bases hosting the F-16s. These are most likely in Moldova and/or Romania.
Moldova is not yet a NATO member, so the consequences of such a Russian attack would be mitigated. Romania is a full NATO member and should it be struck, the final red line, the Rubicon, will have been crossed and there will be no turning back from WWIII. Again, from the Russian perspective: so be it. This is obviously what the Biden team wants for purposes of electoral advantage at home, insane as that may sound.
Before closing, I share a couple of other important news items from last night’s talk show. In the preceding 24 hours, Ukraine fired 12 U.S.-made ATACMS cruise missiles at the Kerch (Crimea) bridge. All 12 were intercepted by Russian air defense and were destroyed. Good work, but had one or two gotten through, as sometimes does happen since no air defense is 100% reliable, then the bridge could well have suffered severe damage. It is a feat of Russian military engineering that they have found ways to neutralize ATACMS and HIMARS. By the way, they identify Great Britain as standing behind this latest attack on the bridge, as it had been the mastermind in previous attempts including by use of water-borne drones. I would not put a high value on London real estate if the conflict with Russia escalates much further.
Finally, the presenter of ‘The Great Game’ provided some information about the FBI’s search a couple of days ago of the Virginia home of their fellow presenter Dmitry Simes. What he said goes well beyond anything you would have read in The New York Times about this case.
For those unfamiliar with Simes, he holds both American and Russian citizenship. He came to the States as a Soviet dissident about 50 years ago, entered into a close working relationship with Richard Nixon whom he served as interpreter and general assistant on Nixon’s travels to Russia after leaving the presidency, and he was the co-founder and long time president of what became the Center for the National Interest in Washington, D.C. In the new millennium, Simes became the U.S. anchorman for Vyacheslav Nikonov’s project ‘The Great Game.’ For this, Simes encountered increasing hostility in the United States and at the very start of the Special Military Operation in February 2022 he moved back to Moscow to take up his now regular position as expert commentator on U.S. and Russian affairs for the state television channel Pervy Kanal. He has not touched foot in the USA ever since.
Apparently, the FBI team that went through Simes’s house and took away a trailer-load of documents and other property was accompanied by a Ukrainian government agent. And in addition, at the same time Simes’s U.S. bank accounts were frozen.
Last night’s presenter described the FBI action against Simes as one more egregious case of intimidation against someone who has broken no American laws to shut him up and remove from the public information agora a voice as well informed and well-connected in Republican Party circles as Dmitry’s. They put this development back to back with the FBI visit to Scott Ritter’s home and confiscation of his archives and draft manuscript for a coming book, back to back with actions taken against Larry Johnson. In this connection, mention was made of measures taken to silence Judge Andrew Napolitano. Perhaps the Russian broadcaster knows more than you and I as to why ‘Judging Freedom’ has been unable to upload its interviews onto youtube since this past Thursday morning.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/08/17/ ... cal-nukes/
******
The US Strategy in the Black Sea Region Is Falling Apart
Posted on August 18, 2024 by Conor Gallagher
The US National Security Council (NSC) is currently working to develop a Black Sea security and development strategy across government agencies.
The current National Defense Authorization Act already outlines several pillars of that strategy that can effectively be boiled down to “keep Russia and China out and the US and NATO in.”
What that envisions is an arc of “rules-based order” states from the Caspian to the Adriatic that would allow the US to exercise control over the movement of energy and goods through the region, and especially in the South Caucasus, which is positioned at the intersection of burgeoning East-West and North-South transport corridors. As Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien put it before the recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee subcommittee hearing “The Future of Europe”:
[We are] are working to foster deeper cooperation among the Black Sea states. But there remain challenges to democracy in some quarters, where backsliding is a significant concern. We must maintain our focus on countries like Georgia, working with like minded partners to promote measures that strengthen democracy and incentivize a return by these governments to a Euro-Atlantic path. In Russia’s periphery, we seek to help those countries that have struggled between the pull of EU accession and the pressure of Russia’s autocracy, and work with those leaders to get them out of the ‘grey zone’ and into western-style democracies. We are building a path for countries in the Western Balkans, Moldova, and the Caucasus independent of malign influence from the PRC and Russia. Some elites in that periphery are bucking against making the hard reforms needed to join the EU and NATO. We must work together to ensure those reforms are done.
It’s an ambitious goal. It’s also been a complete disaster thus far. In most cases, states in the region are now saying no thank you to US entreaties, ignoring its threats, and they’re moving closer to Russia and China.
US officials like O’Brien can talk about democracy all they want, but countries like Azerbaijan, Georgia, and all-important Türkiye are refusing to sacrifice their national interests in order to further the goals of American capital. Only landlocked Armenia is adhering to the US strategy as it follows Washington’s lead on its peace process with Azerbaijan, turns over its government to American advisors, and poisons its long ties with Moscow. More on that below, but let’s first take a look at the energy situation and the countries that are turning their backs on Washington.
The US Cannot Exclude Russia from the Region’s Energy Architecture
Central to the US plans is that it and its client states control the flow of energy resources from the Caspian region to the Black Sea and onto Europe. The US envisions this being done without any participation of Russia, but this ignores how integrated Russia is with its neighbors to the south — and how beneficial that relationship is for countries of the region.
Without even getting into Ukraine’s potential loss of its entire Black Sea coastline, it’s still bad news for Washington. Let’s take Türkiye. The Atlantic Council sums up the US position when is says “Türkiye can become an energy hub—but not by going all-in on Russian gas.” Washington wants Türkiye only to transfer gas from Azerbaijan and from across the Caspian. But here’s what is actually happening.
According to S&P Global, Russian gas supply in July via the TurkStream pipeline to southeast Europe reached the second-highest monthly volume level since the pipeline began operations in 2020.
In the never ending comedy that is the EU trying to wean itself off of Russian gas, Türkiye is even offering to increase the flow through the Turkstream pipeline into Europe. Ankara will, of course, accede to EU demands and only send gas from Azerbaijan. Then it will turn around and buy more gas from Russia for its domestic needs.
Money that used to be spent by the EU on Russian natural gas is simply shifted to Türkiye, but the revenue for Russia remains the same, more or less.
It’s a bit of a headache as Ankara needs to re-export the Azeri gas, but they make a nice little profit. For example, Türkiye and Bulgaria signed a deal in 2023 to permit Bulgaria’s state-owned Bulgargaz to import 1.85 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Bulgargaz has to pay a 2 billion euro service fee to Türkiye over a 13-year period. Türkiye is looking for a similar deal from the EU before further expanding Turkstream capacity. The EU, desperate to keep up the illusion that it is successfully navigating the end of Russian pipelines, will have little option but to accept any Turkish demands.
The West is trying similar math games elsewhere.While Ukraine’s contract to transit natural gas from Russia to Europe ends at the end of this year, and there have been no signs it will be renewed, EU officials want to use the pipelines to transit Azeri gas instead.
This is where it gets tricky. Azerbaijan has no access to the Ukrainian pipeline network, and the Azerbaijan pipeline to the EU is already at full capacity. According to Bloomberg, the EU is proposing a “swap” with Russia providing “Azeri” gas to the EU, while Azerbaijan sends “Russian” gas elsewhere. How exactly those details get worked out remains to be seen, but it would presumably allow EU officials to pat themselves on the back and say they’ve cut off Russian pipeline gas completely.
Meanwhile, the plan would add to the ludicrousness of the EU efforts as even the gas that is piped from Azerbaijan through the South Caucasus Pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline, and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline has a Russian flavor to it. Due to Russian companies’ large investments in the Azerbaijani oil and gas sector, it is one of the bigger beneficiaries of Brussels’ efforts to increase energy imports from Azerbaijan in order to replace Russian supplies. Azerbaijan is also importing more Russian gas itself in order to meet its obligations to Europe.
The one spot where the US achieves some of its goals is the ongoing operations of ExxonMobil and Chevron in Kazakhstan that send the oil to the Black Sea. The great irony there is that success requires the cooperation of none other than Russia. ExxonMobil and Chevron are the largest shareholders in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which carries oil from Kazakhstan to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and onto the global market. The majority of the CPC exports go to Europe and have historically provided about six percent of the EU’s total crude imports.
The US Gets Desperate in Georgia
When earlier this year Georgia passed a foreign agents law — which requires NGOs and media outlets that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as such with the government — it was the surest sign yet that the current government was turning away from the West. The reporting requirement for foreign-funded groups makes it harder for US- and EU-backed organizations to inconspicuously cook up color revolution attempts.
The West is predictably taking a scorched earth approach, complete with sanctions and a halt to Georgia’s EU accession process. More measures are working their way through the US Congress with the aim of passing them before Georgia’s October elections:
War criminal Putin should not be allowed to shape future of Georgia says @RepJoeWilson the author of MEGOBARI act in US Congress pic.twitter.com/FnveOENCra
— Formula NEWS | English (@FormulaGe) July 12, 2024
It is likely that the West is also preparing for another regime change attempt centered around this fall’s parliamentary elections. Georgia is already beginning to crack down on returning members of the Georgian Legion — a group of anti-Russian mercenaries fighting in Ukraine — who it says are plotting attempts to overthrow the government in Tbilisi. Moscow has also offered assistance to the government in Georgia in thwarting any destabilization attempts. Why such the uproar over tiny Georgia?
Assistant Secretary of State O’Brien mentioned one of the reasons recently before the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee. In order for the US to call off the dogs, he said Georgia must end its agreement with China to construct a deep-water port on its Black Sea coast. There is also the Russian plan to reactivate a small Soviet-era military facility in Abkhazia.
This all runs counter to the US plans for Georgia, which include a transit route connecting central Asia and its vast resources of energy, metals, coal, and cotton to Europe and subsea power cables connecting South Caucasus energy to the EU.
Turkiye Prepares to Jump Ship
Türkiye controls passage to and from the Black Sea through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles and can ban the passage of naval vessels from non-littoral countries under the Montreux Convention, which it has steadfastly done since Feb. 2022.
But the Atlantic Council has a plan to change all that, which is “To engage Turkey, make it part of the plan.”
This highlights a central problem with the US and probably its most important (due to geographical factors) NATO “ally”: the failure to account for Türkiye’s interests when formulating plans. It’s a long running grievance from Ankara that its concerns are ignored while it is expected to act as a dutiful frontline soldier to protect the interests of American capital. This fundamental disconnect is finally coming to a head, and while letting Ankara have some input on the alliance’s direction sounds like a bare minimum wise move, what sign is there that the hubristic neocons are even capable of such humility?
Nevertheless, the Atlantic Council’s idea is flatter the gullible Turks by bringing them in on the plan, which to use the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures Task Force—launched in January 2024 as a trilateral initiative between Bulgaria, Romania, and Türkiye to clear their territorial waters of floating mines — as a Trojan Horse for getting warships into the Black Sea. Shockingly, Türkiye continues to resist such efforts — even though the Atlantic Council explained to Türkiye at the time of July NATO summit in Washington what are in its best interests:
Türkiye must understand that while it may gain immediate benefits from trade and energy cooperation with Russia, its economic and security interests are closely aligned with the West, not with autocratic regimes such as China and Russia. Doing business with sanctioned, unstable, and undemocratic countries is a major geopolitical risk and comes at a huge economic cost. Russia’s economy has become a war economy, and there is not much future in doing business with Moscow, especially with the prospect of secondary sanctions looming.
This is representative of the brain rot in Washington that refuses to acknowledge other countries interests and ultimately cannot or will not offer anything more than threats of additional sanctions or other measures. In many ways this particular Atlantic Council argument is not nearly as bombastic as other think tank screeds and official statements that demand Türkiye do as it is commanded or…or else!
Say what you will about Russia or China, but when it comes to international relations they typically try to respect other countries interests and aim for the much-loved “win-win” agreements, which, importantly, they usually uphold. In Türkiye, which is a regional power and where a large segment of nationalists harbor dreams of an ottoman world power in the 21st century, that approach plays well. For all these reasons Türkiye is moving ahead deepening economic and diplomatic ties with Moscow and Beijing.
Much is made of what an own goal US policy scored when it managed to drive Russia and China together. Possibly just as impressive is how American neocons have done the same with Türkiye and Russia. And it’s across the board — business ties, people-to-people ties, and governments. In most cases, the step up in Türkiye-Russia relations occurred with a direct assist from US policy. Consider just the following three examples:
On nuclear energy: Türkiye inaugurated its first nuclear power plant last year — a major occasion in the country as it joined the ranks of nuclear power nations. Russia’s Rosatom financed and is building the plant that will provide roughly 10 percent of Türkiye’s energy needs once fully completed. But the backstory involves 50 years of Türkiye trying to get the West to build it a nuclear plant, which never came to pass.
On defense: Ankara had asked NATO multiple times since the 1990s to deploy early warning systems and Patriot missiles (with tech transfer) to Türkiye, but Washington repeatedly refused. In 2017 Russia sold Türkiye its S-400 missile defense systems, which are arguably superior to anything the West has.
On trade and tourism, the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine is the gift that keeps giving to Türkiye-Russia relations. Russian businesses have been setting up shop in Türkiye as a bypass route around Western sanctions. Russian tourism to Türkiye has gone through the roof due to travel restrictions put in place by the EU, and the increase came as a major boost to Türkiye’s floundering economy. Win-win, as they say.
Disaster for Armenia, Success for the West?
Much of the US plan to salvage anything from its Black Sea mess now rests on poor Armenia.
Assistant Secretary of State O’Brien told the Senate subcommittee that Secretary of State Antony Blinken and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen “created a new platform for Pashinyan several months ago” that is allowing the Armenian government to break away from Russia.
At least publicly, the US and EU have committed hardly anything to Armenia. The EU recently launched a four-year 270 million Euro fund to help “bring Armenia into the Western fold.” Actually bringing Armenia into the EU would require significantly more than that, especially if Russia decided to scale back economic ties with Yerevan. As Fitch Ratings notes, Armenia’s economy relies significantly on Russia for both trade and energy. For example, Armenia also currently pays Russia $165 per thousand cubic meters of gas, well below the market price in Europe, and Russia is Armenia’s number one trading partner. According to the Armenian government data, it accounted last year for over 35 percent of the South Caucasus country’s foreign trade, compared with the EU’s 13 percent share in the total.
Nevertheless, the US takeover of Armenia continues. Last month, a State Department official said that a representative of the US armed forces will be stationed in the Armenian Defense Ministry. Armenian Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights Uzra Zeya confirmed the decision, saying: “We welcome the deepening of civil defense and security cooperation between the US and Armenia. This marks a new phase in the strategic partnership between our countries.”
Indeed.
There seem to be two goals to the US strategy with regards to Armenia. The first is to turn it against Russia. To this end, the Armenian government and much of the media now blames Russia for any loss of territory in the country’s decades-long disputes with Azerbaijan. This, of course, makes no sense, but it is a line pushed relentlessly.
Meanwhile, Armenia continues to bring its armed forces up to NATO standards and increase interoperability. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently outlined Russia’s concern:
“I hope, Yerevan is aware that any deepening of cooperation with the alliance may result in its losing sovereignty in the sphere of national defense and security,” Russia’s top diplomat said…
“This cannot but cause our concern. We have repeatedly drawn the attention of our Armenian colleagues to the fact that NATO’s true goal is to strengthen its positions in the region and create conditions for manipulation based on the ‘divide and conquer’ scheme,” Lavrov concluded.
The second component of the US strategy to use Armenia to further its goals in the region involves the increasingly important transportation links in the region. Both China-led East-West routes and Russia- and India-led North-South routes rely on passing through the Caucasus.
We can go back to O’Brien’s Nov. 15 comments during “The Future of Nagorno-Karabakh” House committee hearing for insight on the US intentions regarding these routes. Here’s what O’Brien said:
“A future that is built around the access of Russia and Iran as the main participants in the security of the region, the South Caucasus, is unstable and undesirable, including for both the governments of Azerbaijan and Armenia. They have the opportunity to make a different decision now.”
O’Brien further explained Washington’s preference for a land corridor between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave to run through Armenia. So here we get to the point of the US efforts.
If the US cements peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, gets an agreement on a trade corridor through Armenia, and continues to control Armenia, well, it then controls the trade corridor. That would be a success for the US.
“In our [U.S.] view, there’s a once-in-a-generation — maybe several generations — opportunity to build a trade route from Central Asia across to the Mediterranean. That can come only if there is peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” O’Brien says.
A central question for other countries of the region: why would they want international transport routes through the region controlled by the Americans? The answer is they do not.
Russia and Iran are obviously opposed to the American plans to cut them out. Iran, especially, worries about a NATO Turan Corridor which sees the West link up hypothetical client states throughout central Asia.
Azerbaijan and Türkiye — two linchpins to any US Zangezur Corridor deal — have shown no inclination to go along. They would prefer to work with the countries that are actually in the region rather than get on board with an American plan to destabilize the neighborhood.
There have recently been reports that the corridor through Armenia is being dropped from the overall peace plan as Armenia doesn’t want it, and Azerbaijan doesn’t want it under US control. It sure would be a shrewd move from Baku if it gets all the territorial concessions it wanted from the US-led peace process only to back out of the one component of the deal that the US actually cares about.
Azerbaijan has always preferred to work with the other countries of the region on the issue, but has participated in the US-led process at Armenia’s insistence. Azerbaijan’s president is actually hosting Putin today and the two sides are signing several agreements expanding cooperation and developing the countries’ strategic partnership.
This was always Armenia’s other option: come to agreements with neighbors rather than be used by a declining power a world away which is increasingly grasping at straws.
Instead it is now in a situation where all the other countries of the region are working together in pursuit of more logistical integration, as well as a desire to keep the West from sabotaging those efforts. This puts Armenia on a collision course with its neighbors, as the US would work to sabotage any corridor agreement it can’t control, and Armenia’s neighbors will not tolerate a US-controlled corridor. When that happens, it’ll be yet another fiasco for US foreign policy. And it will be a disaster for Armenia whose friends in the West will not be able to offer any meaningful defense support.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/08 ... apart.html
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Clarifications on the law on deanonymization of bloggers.
August 17, 2:29 p.m
Clarifications on the law on deanonymization of bloggers.
What data should I transfer to Roskomnadzor?
If you have more than 10 thousand subscribers on one platform, you need to transfer:
- Full name (last name, first name, patronymic),
- Contact information (phone, email),
- Information about the channel (for example, name and URL).
What if I live outside of Russia?
The law applies to everyone who disseminates information on the territory of the Russian Federation. Even if you are outside of Russia, but your channel is focused on a Russian audience and uses social networks from the Roskomnadzor register, you must transfer the data.
Do I need to transfer data about subscribers?
Owners of social networks with an audience of more than 500 thousand users per day are required to provide information about users upon request from RKN or the FSB.
What other consequences if I do not transfer the data?
If you do not transfer your data, and your audience is mainly from the Russian Federation, Roskomnadzor may send the social network administration a request to restrict access to your page or channel. These restrictions may come into force on January 1, 2025. Until then, you will not be able to post ads, collect donations, and your messages will not be able to be reposted by other users.
Does the law apply to all social networks?
The law covers the main social networks and instant messengers registered in the Roskomnadzor registry, including: VKontakte, Odnoklassniki, Twitter, TikTok, Likee, YouTube, Telegram, LiveJournal, Pikabu, Pinterest, Zen, RuTube, Twitch, Discord, Yappy. It is important to note that Instagram and Facebook are not included in the registry, as they are recognized as extremist in Russia.
Important facts:
- After transferring the data, if your channel was blocked, it will be unblocked immediately.
- Important: it is the subscribers that are counted, not the number of views on the channel.
- Social networks are required to mark the bloggers who transferred the data with the RKN icon.
- Channels without the RKN icon will not be able to post ads, collect donations, and their posts cannot be reposted.
The law comes into force on November 1, 2024, but Roskomnadzor will receive the right to block channels that have not provided data only from January 1, 2025.
https://t.me/antipov/281 - zinc
Well, if so, then it is easier for me, my account has been virtualized since 2009 and this data is in the public domain. So for me, in fact, little will change. But for anonymous users, it will be more difficult.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9327629.html
Google Translator
My remarks in today’s report of latest news from Russia’s premier talk show ‘The Great Game’ will be brief and to the point: the USA is continuing to provoke a sharp escalation in the conflict with Russia over Ukraine that brings us two giant steps closer to a Russian nuclear attack on a NATO country.
See https://rutube.ru/video/8a303bf6f37548f ... 2342d87be/
The latest development worthy of discussion in last night’s edition of the talk show is the likely fitting of America’s air to ground JASSM missiles on the F16s that have been and will continue to be delivered to Ukraine.
The acronym of this Lockheed produced weapon stands for Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile and its salient features are its range and its nearly undetectable characteristics in flight. The missile apparently has two basic variants, one for approximately 400 km and the other for 900 km.
The logic for fitting a couple of these missiles on an F-16 is to enable the jet to strike deep into Russia, as far as Moscow and beyond, even if they fly well back from the Russia-controlled territory in Ukraine to be safe from Moscow’s advanced air defense systems.
Thus far, what Washington has acknowledged supplying to Ukraine’s F-16s has been solely useful for defense in dogfights with Russian planes and for striking near-lying ground targets within Russia-occupied Ukraine. In short, the materiel delivered so far does not threaten Russia’s air bases and munitions caches at strategic depth within the Russian Federation, as Zelensky has been demanding.
From the Russian perspective, as explained on ‘The Great Game,’ when Washington says it is considering delivery of the JASSM to Ukraine, that means that the weapons have already been shipped to Poland and/or Romania for handover to Kiev. It may also mean that these missiles are already in Ukraine. And this poses an entirely unacceptable threat which Russia is obliged to neutralize.
In practical terms, the only way to stop JASSM in flight is to destroy the F-16s that launch them. What this means is for Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons against the air bases hosting the F-16s. These are most likely in Moldova and/or Romania.
Moldova is not yet a NATO member, so the consequences of such a Russian attack would be mitigated. Romania is a full NATO member and should it be struck, the final red line, the Rubicon, will have been crossed and there will be no turning back from WWIII. Again, from the Russian perspective: so be it. This is obviously what the Biden team wants for purposes of electoral advantage at home, insane as that may sound.
Before closing, I share a couple of other important news items from last night’s talk show. In the preceding 24 hours, Ukraine fired 12 U.S.-made ATACMS cruise missiles at the Kerch (Crimea) bridge. All 12 were intercepted by Russian air defense and were destroyed. Good work, but had one or two gotten through, as sometimes does happen since no air defense is 100% reliable, then the bridge could well have suffered severe damage. It is a feat of Russian military engineering that they have found ways to neutralize ATACMS and HIMARS. By the way, they identify Great Britain as standing behind this latest attack on the bridge, as it had been the mastermind in previous attempts including by use of water-borne drones. I would not put a high value on London real estate if the conflict with Russia escalates much further.
Finally, the presenter of ‘The Great Game’ provided some information about the FBI’s search a couple of days ago of the Virginia home of their fellow presenter Dmitry Simes. What he said goes well beyond anything you would have read in The New York Times about this case.
For those unfamiliar with Simes, he holds both American and Russian citizenship. He came to the States as a Soviet dissident about 50 years ago, entered into a close working relationship with Richard Nixon whom he served as interpreter and general assistant on Nixon’s travels to Russia after leaving the presidency, and he was the co-founder and long time president of what became the Center for the National Interest in Washington, D.C. In the new millennium, Simes became the U.S. anchorman for Vyacheslav Nikonov’s project ‘The Great Game.’ For this, Simes encountered increasing hostility in the United States and at the very start of the Special Military Operation in February 2022 he moved back to Moscow to take up his now regular position as expert commentator on U.S. and Russian affairs for the state television channel Pervy Kanal. He has not touched foot in the USA ever since.
Apparently, the FBI team that went through Simes’s house and took away a trailer-load of documents and other property was accompanied by a Ukrainian government agent. And in addition, at the same time Simes’s U.S. bank accounts were frozen.
Last night’s presenter described the FBI action against Simes as one more egregious case of intimidation against someone who has broken no American laws to shut him up and remove from the public information agora a voice as well informed and well-connected in Republican Party circles as Dmitry’s. They put this development back to back with the FBI visit to Scott Ritter’s home and confiscation of his archives and draft manuscript for a coming book, back to back with actions taken against Larry Johnson. In this connection, mention was made of measures taken to silence Judge Andrew Napolitano. Perhaps the Russian broadcaster knows more than you and I as to why ‘Judging Freedom’ has been unable to upload its interviews onto youtube since this past Thursday morning.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/08/17/ ... cal-nukes/
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The US Strategy in the Black Sea Region Is Falling Apart
Posted on August 18, 2024 by Conor Gallagher
The US National Security Council (NSC) is currently working to develop a Black Sea security and development strategy across government agencies.
The current National Defense Authorization Act already outlines several pillars of that strategy that can effectively be boiled down to “keep Russia and China out and the US and NATO in.”
What that envisions is an arc of “rules-based order” states from the Caspian to the Adriatic that would allow the US to exercise control over the movement of energy and goods through the region, and especially in the South Caucasus, which is positioned at the intersection of burgeoning East-West and North-South transport corridors. As Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien put it before the recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee subcommittee hearing “The Future of Europe”:
[We are] are working to foster deeper cooperation among the Black Sea states. But there remain challenges to democracy in some quarters, where backsliding is a significant concern. We must maintain our focus on countries like Georgia, working with like minded partners to promote measures that strengthen democracy and incentivize a return by these governments to a Euro-Atlantic path. In Russia’s periphery, we seek to help those countries that have struggled between the pull of EU accession and the pressure of Russia’s autocracy, and work with those leaders to get them out of the ‘grey zone’ and into western-style democracies. We are building a path for countries in the Western Balkans, Moldova, and the Caucasus independent of malign influence from the PRC and Russia. Some elites in that periphery are bucking against making the hard reforms needed to join the EU and NATO. We must work together to ensure those reforms are done.
It’s an ambitious goal. It’s also been a complete disaster thus far. In most cases, states in the region are now saying no thank you to US entreaties, ignoring its threats, and they’re moving closer to Russia and China.
US officials like O’Brien can talk about democracy all they want, but countries like Azerbaijan, Georgia, and all-important Türkiye are refusing to sacrifice their national interests in order to further the goals of American capital. Only landlocked Armenia is adhering to the US strategy as it follows Washington’s lead on its peace process with Azerbaijan, turns over its government to American advisors, and poisons its long ties with Moscow. More on that below, but let’s first take a look at the energy situation and the countries that are turning their backs on Washington.
The US Cannot Exclude Russia from the Region’s Energy Architecture
Central to the US plans is that it and its client states control the flow of energy resources from the Caspian region to the Black Sea and onto Europe. The US envisions this being done without any participation of Russia, but this ignores how integrated Russia is with its neighbors to the south — and how beneficial that relationship is for countries of the region.
Without even getting into Ukraine’s potential loss of its entire Black Sea coastline, it’s still bad news for Washington. Let’s take Türkiye. The Atlantic Council sums up the US position when is says “Türkiye can become an energy hub—but not by going all-in on Russian gas.” Washington wants Türkiye only to transfer gas from Azerbaijan and from across the Caspian. But here’s what is actually happening.
According to S&P Global, Russian gas supply in July via the TurkStream pipeline to southeast Europe reached the second-highest monthly volume level since the pipeline began operations in 2020.
In the never ending comedy that is the EU trying to wean itself off of Russian gas, Türkiye is even offering to increase the flow through the Turkstream pipeline into Europe. Ankara will, of course, accede to EU demands and only send gas from Azerbaijan. Then it will turn around and buy more gas from Russia for its domestic needs.
Money that used to be spent by the EU on Russian natural gas is simply shifted to Türkiye, but the revenue for Russia remains the same, more or less.
It’s a bit of a headache as Ankara needs to re-export the Azeri gas, but they make a nice little profit. For example, Türkiye and Bulgaria signed a deal in 2023 to permit Bulgaria’s state-owned Bulgargaz to import 1.85 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Bulgargaz has to pay a 2 billion euro service fee to Türkiye over a 13-year period. Türkiye is looking for a similar deal from the EU before further expanding Turkstream capacity. The EU, desperate to keep up the illusion that it is successfully navigating the end of Russian pipelines, will have little option but to accept any Turkish demands.
The West is trying similar math games elsewhere.While Ukraine’s contract to transit natural gas from Russia to Europe ends at the end of this year, and there have been no signs it will be renewed, EU officials want to use the pipelines to transit Azeri gas instead.
This is where it gets tricky. Azerbaijan has no access to the Ukrainian pipeline network, and the Azerbaijan pipeline to the EU is already at full capacity. According to Bloomberg, the EU is proposing a “swap” with Russia providing “Azeri” gas to the EU, while Azerbaijan sends “Russian” gas elsewhere. How exactly those details get worked out remains to be seen, but it would presumably allow EU officials to pat themselves on the back and say they’ve cut off Russian pipeline gas completely.
Meanwhile, the plan would add to the ludicrousness of the EU efforts as even the gas that is piped from Azerbaijan through the South Caucasus Pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline, and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline has a Russian flavor to it. Due to Russian companies’ large investments in the Azerbaijani oil and gas sector, it is one of the bigger beneficiaries of Brussels’ efforts to increase energy imports from Azerbaijan in order to replace Russian supplies. Azerbaijan is also importing more Russian gas itself in order to meet its obligations to Europe.
The one spot where the US achieves some of its goals is the ongoing operations of ExxonMobil and Chevron in Kazakhstan that send the oil to the Black Sea. The great irony there is that success requires the cooperation of none other than Russia. ExxonMobil and Chevron are the largest shareholders in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which carries oil from Kazakhstan to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and onto the global market. The majority of the CPC exports go to Europe and have historically provided about six percent of the EU’s total crude imports.
The US Gets Desperate in Georgia
When earlier this year Georgia passed a foreign agents law — which requires NGOs and media outlets that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as such with the government — it was the surest sign yet that the current government was turning away from the West. The reporting requirement for foreign-funded groups makes it harder for US- and EU-backed organizations to inconspicuously cook up color revolution attempts.
The West is predictably taking a scorched earth approach, complete with sanctions and a halt to Georgia’s EU accession process. More measures are working their way through the US Congress with the aim of passing them before Georgia’s October elections:
War criminal Putin should not be allowed to shape future of Georgia says @RepJoeWilson the author of MEGOBARI act in US Congress pic.twitter.com/FnveOENCra
— Formula NEWS | English (@FormulaGe) July 12, 2024
It is likely that the West is also preparing for another regime change attempt centered around this fall’s parliamentary elections. Georgia is already beginning to crack down on returning members of the Georgian Legion — a group of anti-Russian mercenaries fighting in Ukraine — who it says are plotting attempts to overthrow the government in Tbilisi. Moscow has also offered assistance to the government in Georgia in thwarting any destabilization attempts. Why such the uproar over tiny Georgia?
Assistant Secretary of State O’Brien mentioned one of the reasons recently before the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee. In order for the US to call off the dogs, he said Georgia must end its agreement with China to construct a deep-water port on its Black Sea coast. There is also the Russian plan to reactivate a small Soviet-era military facility in Abkhazia.
This all runs counter to the US plans for Georgia, which include a transit route connecting central Asia and its vast resources of energy, metals, coal, and cotton to Europe and subsea power cables connecting South Caucasus energy to the EU.
Turkiye Prepares to Jump Ship
Türkiye controls passage to and from the Black Sea through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles and can ban the passage of naval vessels from non-littoral countries under the Montreux Convention, which it has steadfastly done since Feb. 2022.
But the Atlantic Council has a plan to change all that, which is “To engage Turkey, make it part of the plan.”
This highlights a central problem with the US and probably its most important (due to geographical factors) NATO “ally”: the failure to account for Türkiye’s interests when formulating plans. It’s a long running grievance from Ankara that its concerns are ignored while it is expected to act as a dutiful frontline soldier to protect the interests of American capital. This fundamental disconnect is finally coming to a head, and while letting Ankara have some input on the alliance’s direction sounds like a bare minimum wise move, what sign is there that the hubristic neocons are even capable of such humility?
Nevertheless, the Atlantic Council’s idea is flatter the gullible Turks by bringing them in on the plan, which to use the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures Task Force—launched in January 2024 as a trilateral initiative between Bulgaria, Romania, and Türkiye to clear their territorial waters of floating mines — as a Trojan Horse for getting warships into the Black Sea. Shockingly, Türkiye continues to resist such efforts — even though the Atlantic Council explained to Türkiye at the time of July NATO summit in Washington what are in its best interests:
Türkiye must understand that while it may gain immediate benefits from trade and energy cooperation with Russia, its economic and security interests are closely aligned with the West, not with autocratic regimes such as China and Russia. Doing business with sanctioned, unstable, and undemocratic countries is a major geopolitical risk and comes at a huge economic cost. Russia’s economy has become a war economy, and there is not much future in doing business with Moscow, especially with the prospect of secondary sanctions looming.
This is representative of the brain rot in Washington that refuses to acknowledge other countries interests and ultimately cannot or will not offer anything more than threats of additional sanctions or other measures. In many ways this particular Atlantic Council argument is not nearly as bombastic as other think tank screeds and official statements that demand Türkiye do as it is commanded or…or else!
Say what you will about Russia or China, but when it comes to international relations they typically try to respect other countries interests and aim for the much-loved “win-win” agreements, which, importantly, they usually uphold. In Türkiye, which is a regional power and where a large segment of nationalists harbor dreams of an ottoman world power in the 21st century, that approach plays well. For all these reasons Türkiye is moving ahead deepening economic and diplomatic ties with Moscow and Beijing.
Much is made of what an own goal US policy scored when it managed to drive Russia and China together. Possibly just as impressive is how American neocons have done the same with Türkiye and Russia. And it’s across the board — business ties, people-to-people ties, and governments. In most cases, the step up in Türkiye-Russia relations occurred with a direct assist from US policy. Consider just the following three examples:
On nuclear energy: Türkiye inaugurated its first nuclear power plant last year — a major occasion in the country as it joined the ranks of nuclear power nations. Russia’s Rosatom financed and is building the plant that will provide roughly 10 percent of Türkiye’s energy needs once fully completed. But the backstory involves 50 years of Türkiye trying to get the West to build it a nuclear plant, which never came to pass.
On defense: Ankara had asked NATO multiple times since the 1990s to deploy early warning systems and Patriot missiles (with tech transfer) to Türkiye, but Washington repeatedly refused. In 2017 Russia sold Türkiye its S-400 missile defense systems, which are arguably superior to anything the West has.
On trade and tourism, the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine is the gift that keeps giving to Türkiye-Russia relations. Russian businesses have been setting up shop in Türkiye as a bypass route around Western sanctions. Russian tourism to Türkiye has gone through the roof due to travel restrictions put in place by the EU, and the increase came as a major boost to Türkiye’s floundering economy. Win-win, as they say.
Disaster for Armenia, Success for the West?
Much of the US plan to salvage anything from its Black Sea mess now rests on poor Armenia.
Assistant Secretary of State O’Brien told the Senate subcommittee that Secretary of State Antony Blinken and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen “created a new platform for Pashinyan several months ago” that is allowing the Armenian government to break away from Russia.
At least publicly, the US and EU have committed hardly anything to Armenia. The EU recently launched a four-year 270 million Euro fund to help “bring Armenia into the Western fold.” Actually bringing Armenia into the EU would require significantly more than that, especially if Russia decided to scale back economic ties with Yerevan. As Fitch Ratings notes, Armenia’s economy relies significantly on Russia for both trade and energy. For example, Armenia also currently pays Russia $165 per thousand cubic meters of gas, well below the market price in Europe, and Russia is Armenia’s number one trading partner. According to the Armenian government data, it accounted last year for over 35 percent of the South Caucasus country’s foreign trade, compared with the EU’s 13 percent share in the total.
Nevertheless, the US takeover of Armenia continues. Last month, a State Department official said that a representative of the US armed forces will be stationed in the Armenian Defense Ministry. Armenian Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights Uzra Zeya confirmed the decision, saying: “We welcome the deepening of civil defense and security cooperation between the US and Armenia. This marks a new phase in the strategic partnership between our countries.”
Indeed.
There seem to be two goals to the US strategy with regards to Armenia. The first is to turn it against Russia. To this end, the Armenian government and much of the media now blames Russia for any loss of territory in the country’s decades-long disputes with Azerbaijan. This, of course, makes no sense, but it is a line pushed relentlessly.
Meanwhile, Armenia continues to bring its armed forces up to NATO standards and increase interoperability. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently outlined Russia’s concern:
“I hope, Yerevan is aware that any deepening of cooperation with the alliance may result in its losing sovereignty in the sphere of national defense and security,” Russia’s top diplomat said…
“This cannot but cause our concern. We have repeatedly drawn the attention of our Armenian colleagues to the fact that NATO’s true goal is to strengthen its positions in the region and create conditions for manipulation based on the ‘divide and conquer’ scheme,” Lavrov concluded.
The second component of the US strategy to use Armenia to further its goals in the region involves the increasingly important transportation links in the region. Both China-led East-West routes and Russia- and India-led North-South routes rely on passing through the Caucasus.
We can go back to O’Brien’s Nov. 15 comments during “The Future of Nagorno-Karabakh” House committee hearing for insight on the US intentions regarding these routes. Here’s what O’Brien said:
“A future that is built around the access of Russia and Iran as the main participants in the security of the region, the South Caucasus, is unstable and undesirable, including for both the governments of Azerbaijan and Armenia. They have the opportunity to make a different decision now.”
O’Brien further explained Washington’s preference for a land corridor between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave to run through Armenia. So here we get to the point of the US efforts.
If the US cements peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, gets an agreement on a trade corridor through Armenia, and continues to control Armenia, well, it then controls the trade corridor. That would be a success for the US.
“In our [U.S.] view, there’s a once-in-a-generation — maybe several generations — opportunity to build a trade route from Central Asia across to the Mediterranean. That can come only if there is peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” O’Brien says.
A central question for other countries of the region: why would they want international transport routes through the region controlled by the Americans? The answer is they do not.
Russia and Iran are obviously opposed to the American plans to cut them out. Iran, especially, worries about a NATO Turan Corridor which sees the West link up hypothetical client states throughout central Asia.
Azerbaijan and Türkiye — two linchpins to any US Zangezur Corridor deal — have shown no inclination to go along. They would prefer to work with the countries that are actually in the region rather than get on board with an American plan to destabilize the neighborhood.
There have recently been reports that the corridor through Armenia is being dropped from the overall peace plan as Armenia doesn’t want it, and Azerbaijan doesn’t want it under US control. It sure would be a shrewd move from Baku if it gets all the territorial concessions it wanted from the US-led peace process only to back out of the one component of the deal that the US actually cares about.
Azerbaijan has always preferred to work with the other countries of the region on the issue, but has participated in the US-led process at Armenia’s insistence. Azerbaijan’s president is actually hosting Putin today and the two sides are signing several agreements expanding cooperation and developing the countries’ strategic partnership.
This was always Armenia’s other option: come to agreements with neighbors rather than be used by a declining power a world away which is increasingly grasping at straws.
Instead it is now in a situation where all the other countries of the region are working together in pursuit of more logistical integration, as well as a desire to keep the West from sabotaging those efforts. This puts Armenia on a collision course with its neighbors, as the US would work to sabotage any corridor agreement it can’t control, and Armenia’s neighbors will not tolerate a US-controlled corridor. When that happens, it’ll be yet another fiasco for US foreign policy. And it will be a disaster for Armenia whose friends in the West will not be able to offer any meaningful defense support.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/08 ... apart.html
*****
Clarifications on the law on deanonymization of bloggers.
August 17, 2:29 p.m
Clarifications on the law on deanonymization of bloggers.
What data should I transfer to Roskomnadzor?
If you have more than 10 thousand subscribers on one platform, you need to transfer:
- Full name (last name, first name, patronymic),
- Contact information (phone, email),
- Information about the channel (for example, name and URL).
What if I live outside of Russia?
The law applies to everyone who disseminates information on the territory of the Russian Federation. Even if you are outside of Russia, but your channel is focused on a Russian audience and uses social networks from the Roskomnadzor register, you must transfer the data.
Do I need to transfer data about subscribers?
Owners of social networks with an audience of more than 500 thousand users per day are required to provide information about users upon request from RKN or the FSB.
What other consequences if I do not transfer the data?
If you do not transfer your data, and your audience is mainly from the Russian Federation, Roskomnadzor may send the social network administration a request to restrict access to your page or channel. These restrictions may come into force on January 1, 2025. Until then, you will not be able to post ads, collect donations, and your messages will not be able to be reposted by other users.
Does the law apply to all social networks?
The law covers the main social networks and instant messengers registered in the Roskomnadzor registry, including: VKontakte, Odnoklassniki, Twitter, TikTok, Likee, YouTube, Telegram, LiveJournal, Pikabu, Pinterest, Zen, RuTube, Twitch, Discord, Yappy. It is important to note that Instagram and Facebook are not included in the registry, as they are recognized as extremist in Russia.
Important facts:
- After transferring the data, if your channel was blocked, it will be unblocked immediately.
- Important: it is the subscribers that are counted, not the number of views on the channel.
- Social networks are required to mark the bloggers who transferred the data with the RKN icon.
- Channels without the RKN icon will not be able to post ads, collect donations, and their posts cannot be reposted.
The law comes into force on November 1, 2024, but Roskomnadzor will receive the right to block channels that have not provided data only from January 1, 2025.
https://t.me/antipov/281 - zinc
Well, if so, then it is easier for me, my account has been virtualized since 2009 and this data is in the public domain. So for me, in fact, little will change. But for anonymous users, it will be more difficult.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9327629.html
Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
Russia Is Finally Facilitating The Emigration Of Western Socio-Cultural Dissidents
Andrew Korybko
Aug 20, 2024
Even those like-minded folks who don’t take up this opportunity will still appreciate that they’re always welcome there, which will go a long way towards winning more hearts and minds in the West.
Putin signed a decree on Monday liberalizing his country’s immigration system to facilitate the emigration of Western socio-cultural dissidents who oppose their homelands’ neoliberal ideology. Renowned Russian immigration lawyer Timur Beslangurov, whose excellent services can be solicited from his website, translated the full text in a post on his “Moving To Russia” Telegram channel. He then thanked Duma member Maria Butina for helping to make this “revolutionary” move happen.
That’s not hyperbole either since Russia hitherto had some of the strictest and most byzantine immigration procedures in the world, though only for applicants from outside the former USSR. It was even cautioned in February that “Russia’s Embrace Of Traditional Values-Espousing Immigrants Won’t Be As Simple As Some Think” precisely for that reason. Interested immigrants were advised to learn Russian at a semi-decent level if they wanted any realistic chance of moving there and making a living.
The new decree changes all of that by removing the language, history, and knowledge of law requirements for applying for temporary residency and even getting rid of the hated quota system. There’ll also be a streamlined procedure for granting three-month single-entry visas. To paraphrase the famous saying, “Russians take a while to saddle up, but when they finally ride, they ride fast.” This development was a long time coming and the result of lots of hard work, but it’s now a reality.
What this means is that anyone who opposes the West’s liberal-globalist socio-cultural policies has the opportunity to start a new life in Russia, though that’ll still of course be easier said than done if they actually decide to come there. They’ll have to have enough money saved up to rent a place or at least a hostel, not to mention to support themselves until they find a job, which is difficult to do until they receive their temporary residency permit.
In the meantime, it would obviously be a good idea for them to take Russian lessons, and some might freelance teaching English (perhaps as a quid pro quo) until they can legally join a teaching company. That, publicly financed media, farming, and specialized tech services are the most likely jobs that Western socio-cultural dissidents will end up having if they move to Russia since options are greatly limited for non-Russian speakers seeing as how few people there speak a foreign language at any level.
It might therefore be an admittedly intimidating and overwhelming experience for the average Westerner who decides to start a new life in Russia, thus leading to only the most passionate ones taking the plunge as well as those without the “baggage” (real estate, dependents, etc.) that could hinder this. Nevertheless, it should come as a huge relief for all of them to know that they still have this opportunity if they ever feel that they can’t comfortably live in their homelands’ liberal-globalist society any longer.
Russia is finally embracing its role as a refuge for them from the aforesaid evils by showing that it sympathizes with their plight, to which end it’s now facilitating their emigration by revolutionizing its byzantine immigration system with long-overdue radical reforms for this promising class of immigrants. Even those like-minded folks who don’t take up this opportunity will still appreciate that they’re always welcome there, which will go a long way towards winning more hearts and minds in the West.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-i ... tating-the
It suits cultural reactionaries in Russia and elsewhere to take the US/corporate 'diversity' policies at face value in their Manichean understanding of the world, rather than seeing these policies as devised to divide the working class in advance of the coming economic crush. In this they play into the hands of the US ruling class, useful idiots. They will distract us with the misdirection of 'culture war' forever if we allow them.
If Russia wants those truly religious fanatics and racist bigots she will be sorry.
******
Can the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk province destabilize Russia?
Can the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk province destabilize Russia?
Regrettably, Americans, including the elites running the government, are so dismissive of the culture and historical experience of other countries that the operating assumptions behind many of Washington’s foreign moves are dead wrong. Is it any wonder that policies built on sand go awry?
I direct attention to the view widely held by numerous pundits in the media and probably traceable back to hand-outs they received from the State Department that Zelensky’s incursion, now invasion of the Kursk province (oblast) of the Russian Federation dealt a grave humiliation to Vladimir Putin, showing up as it did that Russian defenses are flimsy and that the Kremlin cannot provide proper security for its citizenry. We find this not only in print media but also on such broadcasters as the BBC whose Moscow bureau chief Steve Rosenberg ran a series of interviews a couple of days ago pointing to Putin’s loss of stature as a result of the Ukrainian capture of 1,000 square kilometers (now 1,200 sq.km) of territory within Russia’s universally recognized borders. It is widely believed that if Putin fails to hold up his side of the bargain with the Russian people in a supposed exchange of freedom for security, then he will be overthrown. Such turmoil within Russia would provide opportunities for the West to reassert its control over the big neighbor to the East.
Then as a contributing factor to some hoped-for collapse of popular support for the ‘Putin regime’ Western commentators are counting on a revolt of Russian mothers over their drafted sons finding themselves under enemy fire, as some are now in Kursk, given the promises from the Kremlin at the start of the Special Military Operation that conscripted young me would not be doing any fighting. Of course, that promise was undone when the Ukrainians marched into Russia proper and brought war precisely to the young draftees.
The problem with these evaluations of the Russian popular mood is that they totally ignore what we know from Russian history.
We can talk about the sharp rise in patriotism in Russia and readiness for self-sacrifice of the broad population that came in June 1941 when Hitler invaded the Soviet Union, a surge that lasted the duration of World War II. But let us go back further in time to Napoleon’s invasion of 1812.
An excellent book on the subject was published in 2009 by the man I consider to be the greatest living historian of tsarist Russia in the West, Dominic Lieven, entitled Russia Against Napoleon: The Battle for Europe, 1807 to 1814. T. The book was prepared for the bicentary commemoration of the war and was remarkable for the author’s extensive and productive use of Russian archives. But Lieven set for himself broader tasks than sharing his archival findings on the Russian reserves of horses for the cavalry, important as that was given that the cavalry was the tank column of the day. He also looked at the war from the perspective of its greatest Russian chronicler, Lev Tolstoy, whose War and Peace profited from the novelist’s conversations with still living Russian veterans of the Napoleonic wars.
The point Lieven was making is that precisely the invasion of Russian heartland by Napoleon in 1812 gave the more than 15 year intermittent fighting between ancien régime Russia and revolutionary France a wholly different character from what preceded and what followed 1812. Before1812, the battles between the tsar’s armies and the French armies were fought in Central Europe alongside Alexander’s allies Prussia and Austria in accordance with the rules of war that had been practiced in the 18th century between rival empires or nation states. This period gets rather cursory treatment by Tolstoy because it was not of passionate interest to his readers. The fight to free their invaded country in 1812 was of a wholly different nature, being a war of national liberation with a great deal of fighting by irregulars, or what we would today call partisans. This period constitutes the bulk of War and Peace. For the same reasons, Tolstoy ended his novel with the expulsion of the French and their allied troops from the Russian land. There was no follow-up to 1815 and Waterloo, because this was not of great interest to the Russian reader.
Moving this observation to our present day, we may say that the Special Military Operation has enjoyed some degree of popular support in Russia insofar as its mission was explained not in geopolitical terms but in terms of support for the Russian speaking population first of Donbas (Donetsk and Lugansk), and then also of Novorossiya (Kherson and Zaporozhiye oblasts). We may liken this to the military support of the Russian noble classes for fellow Orthodox Balkan peoples in the last quarter of the 19th century during their wars of liberation from Ottoman Turkey. This was an enthusiasm mainly shared, as I say, among Russian noblemen and the best educated strata, not among the entire Russian nation. The equivalent SMO sign-up of volunteers to fight against Ukraine that has been running at 30,000 per month for more than a year is noteworthy but not only as a display of patriotism. A significant factor has been the large financial incentives offered to the new kontraktniki, reaching presently to as much as the ruble equivalent of 10,000 euros at sign-up plus handsome pay during the stay on the field of combat. For many ‘volunteers,’ this is more money than they have ever seen in their lives.
What the Ukrainian incursion, now described in Russia as a NATO invasion of their country because it is being guided by NATO officers, is doing is to generate a far deeper surge of patriotism for the purposes of defending their own homes and driving out invaders. There is, correspondingly, an uptick in volunteers signing up to fight and we may expect that the Russian nation will rally around Putin and his government with still greater gusto. The ‘war economy’ will surely spread further out in society.
I am not surprised that Russia has been slow to stage its counter-move in Kursk even as it steps up its offensive in the Donbas theater, where it is making substantial daily progress by capturing key logistical centers of the Ukrainian front around Pokrovsk. It is a good moment for Russia to make a breakthrough on the main line of confrontation, and to let the new 160 km long front in Kursk stagnate for a while as it generates ever higher levels of popular commitment to the war effort. At the moment of its choosing, Russia will bring down the sledgehammer on Ukrainian troops inside Kursk and recover its control over its borders.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/08/20/ ... ze-russia/
Andrew Korybko
Aug 20, 2024
Even those like-minded folks who don’t take up this opportunity will still appreciate that they’re always welcome there, which will go a long way towards winning more hearts and minds in the West.
Putin signed a decree on Monday liberalizing his country’s immigration system to facilitate the emigration of Western socio-cultural dissidents who oppose their homelands’ neoliberal ideology. Renowned Russian immigration lawyer Timur Beslangurov, whose excellent services can be solicited from his website, translated the full text in a post on his “Moving To Russia” Telegram channel. He then thanked Duma member Maria Butina for helping to make this “revolutionary” move happen.
That’s not hyperbole either since Russia hitherto had some of the strictest and most byzantine immigration procedures in the world, though only for applicants from outside the former USSR. It was even cautioned in February that “Russia’s Embrace Of Traditional Values-Espousing Immigrants Won’t Be As Simple As Some Think” precisely for that reason. Interested immigrants were advised to learn Russian at a semi-decent level if they wanted any realistic chance of moving there and making a living.
The new decree changes all of that by removing the language, history, and knowledge of law requirements for applying for temporary residency and even getting rid of the hated quota system. There’ll also be a streamlined procedure for granting three-month single-entry visas. To paraphrase the famous saying, “Russians take a while to saddle up, but when they finally ride, they ride fast.” This development was a long time coming and the result of lots of hard work, but it’s now a reality.
What this means is that anyone who opposes the West’s liberal-globalist socio-cultural policies has the opportunity to start a new life in Russia, though that’ll still of course be easier said than done if they actually decide to come there. They’ll have to have enough money saved up to rent a place or at least a hostel, not to mention to support themselves until they find a job, which is difficult to do until they receive their temporary residency permit.
In the meantime, it would obviously be a good idea for them to take Russian lessons, and some might freelance teaching English (perhaps as a quid pro quo) until they can legally join a teaching company. That, publicly financed media, farming, and specialized tech services are the most likely jobs that Western socio-cultural dissidents will end up having if they move to Russia since options are greatly limited for non-Russian speakers seeing as how few people there speak a foreign language at any level.
It might therefore be an admittedly intimidating and overwhelming experience for the average Westerner who decides to start a new life in Russia, thus leading to only the most passionate ones taking the plunge as well as those without the “baggage” (real estate, dependents, etc.) that could hinder this. Nevertheless, it should come as a huge relief for all of them to know that they still have this opportunity if they ever feel that they can’t comfortably live in their homelands’ liberal-globalist society any longer.
Russia is finally embracing its role as a refuge for them from the aforesaid evils by showing that it sympathizes with their plight, to which end it’s now facilitating their emigration by revolutionizing its byzantine immigration system with long-overdue radical reforms for this promising class of immigrants. Even those like-minded folks who don’t take up this opportunity will still appreciate that they’re always welcome there, which will go a long way towards winning more hearts and minds in the West.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-i ... tating-the
It suits cultural reactionaries in Russia and elsewhere to take the US/corporate 'diversity' policies at face value in their Manichean understanding of the world, rather than seeing these policies as devised to divide the working class in advance of the coming economic crush. In this they play into the hands of the US ruling class, useful idiots. They will distract us with the misdirection of 'culture war' forever if we allow them.
If Russia wants those truly religious fanatics and racist bigots she will be sorry.
******
Can the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk province destabilize Russia?
Can the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk province destabilize Russia?
Regrettably, Americans, including the elites running the government, are so dismissive of the culture and historical experience of other countries that the operating assumptions behind many of Washington’s foreign moves are dead wrong. Is it any wonder that policies built on sand go awry?
I direct attention to the view widely held by numerous pundits in the media and probably traceable back to hand-outs they received from the State Department that Zelensky’s incursion, now invasion of the Kursk province (oblast) of the Russian Federation dealt a grave humiliation to Vladimir Putin, showing up as it did that Russian defenses are flimsy and that the Kremlin cannot provide proper security for its citizenry. We find this not only in print media but also on such broadcasters as the BBC whose Moscow bureau chief Steve Rosenberg ran a series of interviews a couple of days ago pointing to Putin’s loss of stature as a result of the Ukrainian capture of 1,000 square kilometers (now 1,200 sq.km) of territory within Russia’s universally recognized borders. It is widely believed that if Putin fails to hold up his side of the bargain with the Russian people in a supposed exchange of freedom for security, then he will be overthrown. Such turmoil within Russia would provide opportunities for the West to reassert its control over the big neighbor to the East.
Then as a contributing factor to some hoped-for collapse of popular support for the ‘Putin regime’ Western commentators are counting on a revolt of Russian mothers over their drafted sons finding themselves under enemy fire, as some are now in Kursk, given the promises from the Kremlin at the start of the Special Military Operation that conscripted young me would not be doing any fighting. Of course, that promise was undone when the Ukrainians marched into Russia proper and brought war precisely to the young draftees.
The problem with these evaluations of the Russian popular mood is that they totally ignore what we know from Russian history.
We can talk about the sharp rise in patriotism in Russia and readiness for self-sacrifice of the broad population that came in June 1941 when Hitler invaded the Soviet Union, a surge that lasted the duration of World War II. But let us go back further in time to Napoleon’s invasion of 1812.
An excellent book on the subject was published in 2009 by the man I consider to be the greatest living historian of tsarist Russia in the West, Dominic Lieven, entitled Russia Against Napoleon: The Battle for Europe, 1807 to 1814. T. The book was prepared for the bicentary commemoration of the war and was remarkable for the author’s extensive and productive use of Russian archives. But Lieven set for himself broader tasks than sharing his archival findings on the Russian reserves of horses for the cavalry, important as that was given that the cavalry was the tank column of the day. He also looked at the war from the perspective of its greatest Russian chronicler, Lev Tolstoy, whose War and Peace profited from the novelist’s conversations with still living Russian veterans of the Napoleonic wars.
The point Lieven was making is that precisely the invasion of Russian heartland by Napoleon in 1812 gave the more than 15 year intermittent fighting between ancien régime Russia and revolutionary France a wholly different character from what preceded and what followed 1812. Before1812, the battles between the tsar’s armies and the French armies were fought in Central Europe alongside Alexander’s allies Prussia and Austria in accordance with the rules of war that had been practiced in the 18th century between rival empires or nation states. This period gets rather cursory treatment by Tolstoy because it was not of passionate interest to his readers. The fight to free their invaded country in 1812 was of a wholly different nature, being a war of national liberation with a great deal of fighting by irregulars, or what we would today call partisans. This period constitutes the bulk of War and Peace. For the same reasons, Tolstoy ended his novel with the expulsion of the French and their allied troops from the Russian land. There was no follow-up to 1815 and Waterloo, because this was not of great interest to the Russian reader.
Moving this observation to our present day, we may say that the Special Military Operation has enjoyed some degree of popular support in Russia insofar as its mission was explained not in geopolitical terms but in terms of support for the Russian speaking population first of Donbas (Donetsk and Lugansk), and then also of Novorossiya (Kherson and Zaporozhiye oblasts). We may liken this to the military support of the Russian noble classes for fellow Orthodox Balkan peoples in the last quarter of the 19th century during their wars of liberation from Ottoman Turkey. This was an enthusiasm mainly shared, as I say, among Russian noblemen and the best educated strata, not among the entire Russian nation. The equivalent SMO sign-up of volunteers to fight against Ukraine that has been running at 30,000 per month for more than a year is noteworthy but not only as a display of patriotism. A significant factor has been the large financial incentives offered to the new kontraktniki, reaching presently to as much as the ruble equivalent of 10,000 euros at sign-up plus handsome pay during the stay on the field of combat. For many ‘volunteers,’ this is more money than they have ever seen in their lives.
What the Ukrainian incursion, now described in Russia as a NATO invasion of their country because it is being guided by NATO officers, is doing is to generate a far deeper surge of patriotism for the purposes of defending their own homes and driving out invaders. There is, correspondingly, an uptick in volunteers signing up to fight and we may expect that the Russian nation will rally around Putin and his government with still greater gusto. The ‘war economy’ will surely spread further out in society.
I am not surprised that Russia has been slow to stage its counter-move in Kursk even as it steps up its offensive in the Donbas theater, where it is making substantial daily progress by capturing key logistical centers of the Ukrainian front around Pokrovsk. It is a good moment for Russia to make a breakthrough on the main line of confrontation, and to let the new 160 km long front in Kursk stagnate for a while as it generates ever higher levels of popular commitment to the war effort. At the moment of its choosing, Russia will bring down the sledgehammer on Ukrainian troops inside Kursk and recover its control over its borders.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/08/20/ ... ze-russia/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
Digital Transformation Successes
August 20, 23:24
The head of the Digital Transformation Department of the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia has been detained on suspicion of accepting a bribe.
P.S. And it's not Friday yet.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9333303.html
Intermediate by Rutube
August 20, 19:27
Intermediate on Rutube.
1. There are no problems with uploading videos at the moment. Everything loads quickly enough, there are no problems with playback for short videos. Everything is ok with "shorts" too.
2. Regarding moderation - on average for different video sizes 5-15 minutes (tried different videos). Much faster than 1-1.5 years ago. So there is progress.
3. Regarding copyright - I specifically uploaded a video from another channel on weapons from Rutube. Moderation allows it. I believe that in the future we will see a lot of channels that will simply download videos from YouTube to Rutube, especially from those channels that do not switch to Rutube and whose copyrights on Rutube will be of little concern to everyone. The recipe for success - create a channel "Educational videos" and start downloading them to Rutube like crazy from everywhere. After all, as they say, YouTube was watched only for them.
4. The channel has been verified (again, thanks to Anastasia from the Rutube administration), there is now a blue check mark. So now there is an authorized channel.
5. The open URL of the channel has been changed, now for ease of search it looks like this https://rutube.ru/u/colonelcassad/ .
6. In general, the current state of the hosting can be characterized as quite acceptable for constant uploading. In August, I will be uploading in a sluggish mode, and in September already on a permanent basis, fortunately, the video reserves are huge. I do not plan to upload completely "hardcore" and "meat" 21+.
7. There is also a broadcast mode, but I have not tried it yet. I will experiment here.
So if anyone is interested, subscribe https://rutube.ru/u/colonelcassad/
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9332808.html
Google Translator
******
Kazakhstan: US influence on domestic politics in the Republic
August 21, 2024
Rybar
Recently, American Ambassador Daniel Rosenblum gave a long interview to the Kazakhstani publication KazTAG about his activities over the past two years. A significant part of the interview was devoted to the ambassador's assessment of internal processes in Kazakhstan and their compliance with Washington's expectations .
The ambassador spoke about two USAID programs on decentralization of government and resolution of commercial disputes . The latter is especially important given the ambassador's words that the United States is the second largest recipient of foreign direct investment .
Since the interests of Americans are connected with the strategically important sphere of rare and rare earth metals mining, measures are being taken to provide American companies with the most comfortable working conditions.
The " stick " was not without its use . Rosenblum singled out short-term problems related to " ensuring security and stability for citizens ." Among the medium-term problems, the ambassador noted, first of all, insufficient investment in transport infrastructure. Despite progress in creating institutions for the protection of human rights, the diplomat noted that the republic " lags behind in such areas as free and fair elections, freedom of assembly, freedom of speech."
On security issues, the Ambassador assured that Washington not only supports Kazakhstan in protecting its territorial integrity, but also actively participates in joint activities, such as joint training of Kazakh and US military personnel , border security programs , and combating transnational crime . In this context, it is important to recall that Washington is already directly involved in the technical aspects of customs management and effectively takes control of border trade.
The Ambassador expressed his respect to President Tokayev for observing and respecting international sanctions . Here the US and Kazakhstan have two areas of work: combating the re-export of goods and finding an alternative for Kazakhstani producers who have lost access to Russian markets.
Overall, the interview fully reflects the processes we wrote about earlier: the US is so involved in every aspect of domestic politics that the question arises: where else does Astana make independent, sovereign decisions?
https://rybar.ru/kazahstan-vliyanie-ssh ... espublike/
What is the Kazakh army preparing for?
August 15, 2024
Rybar
Recently, military preparations have been actively carried out in Kazakhstan. At the beginning of the year, it was planned to conscript 39,180 Kazakhstanis, now they want to increase the number to 40 thousand. Currently, the size of the active army is 110 thousand people, and in this indicator in the region, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan are second only to the Russian Army.
The established term of military service in Kazakhstan is one year and there is no prospect of abolishing conscription.
At the same time, the number of people called up for military training is increasing , with up to 3,000 people taking part this year – more than three times more than in 2021. The military budget is also gradually increasing : from 750 billion tenge to 1.3 trillion this year, which already amounts to 0.8% of GDP.
As can be understood from the words of the Minister of Defense Ruslan Zhaksylykov , the priority of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan is the development of military infrastructure , equipping with modern weapons and military equipment, as well as strengthening military-patriotic work . One of the elements of this strengthening is the start of recruitment for training in military journalism , announced this month.
Among the military equipment supplied to the troops, the following are mentioned: Otokar Cobra II armored personnel carriers manufactured in Turkey and Arlan manufactured by Kazakhstan Paramount Engineering, SUNQAR UAVs from Bet Sky, as well as Chinese EVOMax drones and European A400M military transport aircraft from Airbus Military.
What is the reason for such attention to the army?
The year 2022 has become a cold shower for the military-political leadership of Kazakhstan: Astana was frightened by the ineffectiveness of its own security forces during the January events , which led to the introduction of CSTO forces, and the beginning of the NVO , which the Kazakh leadership tried on for itself.
The result was a rather tough draft in the spring of 2022, when in some regions military commissariat representatives forcibly took students from educational institutions, an expansion of the Military Doctrine in terms of options for responding to a potential threat, and an accelerated modernization of the army.
What could become a threat?
In his latest interview, Secretary of the Committee on International Affairs, Defense and Security of the Majilis Aidos Sarym says that its source may be some imperial reasons , as well as water shortage: There are many reports that say that the main conflicts in our region will be for water . Any documents like the Budapest Memorandum , in the opinion of the secretary, have ceased to guarantee anything.
The country faces the problem of localizing the military-industrial complex, which is proposed to be solved by industrial cooperation with the Turkish side. The traditions of Kazakh officers are developing , and people from the Kazakh environment already make up 95-97% of the entire Kazakh army. It is planned to form 20 territorial defense brigades .
In sum, Kazakhstan assumes that a possible conflict will be defensive in nature. In this regard, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan are focusing on the mobility of their army: Astana understands that it will be unrealistic to hold such a huge territory in the event of an intervention with the available forces.
Therefore, the goal is to prepare a sufficient reserve that will impose a battle in a place and conditions convenient for itself. Military-psychological mobilization is being prepared: society should not waver at the moment of the first strike, but receive inspiring footage of enemy columns burned by drones from freshly baked war correspondents. Whose columns will these be (according to the plan of Aidosa Sarym and other initiators of army modernization) is a rhetorical question.
https://rybar.ru/k-chemu-gotovitsya-kaz ... ya-armiya/
Google Translator
August 20, 23:24
The head of the Digital Transformation Department of the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia has been detained on suspicion of accepting a bribe.
P.S. And it's not Friday yet.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9333303.html
Intermediate by Rutube
August 20, 19:27
Intermediate on Rutube.
1. There are no problems with uploading videos at the moment. Everything loads quickly enough, there are no problems with playback for short videos. Everything is ok with "shorts" too.
2. Regarding moderation - on average for different video sizes 5-15 minutes (tried different videos). Much faster than 1-1.5 years ago. So there is progress.
3. Regarding copyright - I specifically uploaded a video from another channel on weapons from Rutube. Moderation allows it. I believe that in the future we will see a lot of channels that will simply download videos from YouTube to Rutube, especially from those channels that do not switch to Rutube and whose copyrights on Rutube will be of little concern to everyone. The recipe for success - create a channel "Educational videos" and start downloading them to Rutube like crazy from everywhere. After all, as they say, YouTube was watched only for them.
4. The channel has been verified (again, thanks to Anastasia from the Rutube administration), there is now a blue check mark. So now there is an authorized channel.
5. The open URL of the channel has been changed, now for ease of search it looks like this https://rutube.ru/u/colonelcassad/ .
6. In general, the current state of the hosting can be characterized as quite acceptable for constant uploading. In August, I will be uploading in a sluggish mode, and in September already on a permanent basis, fortunately, the video reserves are huge. I do not plan to upload completely "hardcore" and "meat" 21+.
7. There is also a broadcast mode, but I have not tried it yet. I will experiment here.
So if anyone is interested, subscribe https://rutube.ru/u/colonelcassad/
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9332808.html
Google Translator
******
Kazakhstan: US influence on domestic politics in the Republic
August 21, 2024
Rybar
Recently, American Ambassador Daniel Rosenblum gave a long interview to the Kazakhstani publication KazTAG about his activities over the past two years. A significant part of the interview was devoted to the ambassador's assessment of internal processes in Kazakhstan and their compliance with Washington's expectations .
The ambassador spoke about two USAID programs on decentralization of government and resolution of commercial disputes . The latter is especially important given the ambassador's words that the United States is the second largest recipient of foreign direct investment .
Since the interests of Americans are connected with the strategically important sphere of rare and rare earth metals mining, measures are being taken to provide American companies with the most comfortable working conditions.
The " stick " was not without its use . Rosenblum singled out short-term problems related to " ensuring security and stability for citizens ." Among the medium-term problems, the ambassador noted, first of all, insufficient investment in transport infrastructure. Despite progress in creating institutions for the protection of human rights, the diplomat noted that the republic " lags behind in such areas as free and fair elections, freedom of assembly, freedom of speech."
On security issues, the Ambassador assured that Washington not only supports Kazakhstan in protecting its territorial integrity, but also actively participates in joint activities, such as joint training of Kazakh and US military personnel , border security programs , and combating transnational crime . In this context, it is important to recall that Washington is already directly involved in the technical aspects of customs management and effectively takes control of border trade.
The Ambassador expressed his respect to President Tokayev for observing and respecting international sanctions . Here the US and Kazakhstan have two areas of work: combating the re-export of goods and finding an alternative for Kazakhstani producers who have lost access to Russian markets.
Overall, the interview fully reflects the processes we wrote about earlier: the US is so involved in every aspect of domestic politics that the question arises: where else does Astana make independent, sovereign decisions?
https://rybar.ru/kazahstan-vliyanie-ssh ... espublike/
What is the Kazakh army preparing for?
August 15, 2024
Rybar
Recently, military preparations have been actively carried out in Kazakhstan. At the beginning of the year, it was planned to conscript 39,180 Kazakhstanis, now they want to increase the number to 40 thousand. Currently, the size of the active army is 110 thousand people, and in this indicator in the region, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan are second only to the Russian Army.
The established term of military service in Kazakhstan is one year and there is no prospect of abolishing conscription.
At the same time, the number of people called up for military training is increasing , with up to 3,000 people taking part this year – more than three times more than in 2021. The military budget is also gradually increasing : from 750 billion tenge to 1.3 trillion this year, which already amounts to 0.8% of GDP.
As can be understood from the words of the Minister of Defense Ruslan Zhaksylykov , the priority of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan is the development of military infrastructure , equipping with modern weapons and military equipment, as well as strengthening military-patriotic work . One of the elements of this strengthening is the start of recruitment for training in military journalism , announced this month.
Among the military equipment supplied to the troops, the following are mentioned: Otokar Cobra II armored personnel carriers manufactured in Turkey and Arlan manufactured by Kazakhstan Paramount Engineering, SUNQAR UAVs from Bet Sky, as well as Chinese EVOMax drones and European A400M military transport aircraft from Airbus Military.
What is the reason for such attention to the army?
The year 2022 has become a cold shower for the military-political leadership of Kazakhstan: Astana was frightened by the ineffectiveness of its own security forces during the January events , which led to the introduction of CSTO forces, and the beginning of the NVO , which the Kazakh leadership tried on for itself.
The result was a rather tough draft in the spring of 2022, when in some regions military commissariat representatives forcibly took students from educational institutions, an expansion of the Military Doctrine in terms of options for responding to a potential threat, and an accelerated modernization of the army.
What could become a threat?
In his latest interview, Secretary of the Committee on International Affairs, Defense and Security of the Majilis Aidos Sarym says that its source may be some imperial reasons , as well as water shortage: There are many reports that say that the main conflicts in our region will be for water . Any documents like the Budapest Memorandum , in the opinion of the secretary, have ceased to guarantee anything.
The country faces the problem of localizing the military-industrial complex, which is proposed to be solved by industrial cooperation with the Turkish side. The traditions of Kazakh officers are developing , and people from the Kazakh environment already make up 95-97% of the entire Kazakh army. It is planned to form 20 territorial defense brigades .
In sum, Kazakhstan assumes that a possible conflict will be defensive in nature. In this regard, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan are focusing on the mobility of their army: Astana understands that it will be unrealistic to hold such a huge territory in the event of an intervention with the available forces.
Therefore, the goal is to prepare a sufficient reserve that will impose a battle in a place and conditions convenient for itself. Military-psychological mobilization is being prepared: society should not waver at the moment of the first strike, but receive inspiring footage of enemy columns burned by drones from freshly baked war correspondents. Whose columns will these be (according to the plan of Aidosa Sarym and other initiators of army modernization) is a rhetorical question.
https://rybar.ru/k-chemu-gotovitsya-kaz ... ya-armiya/
Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
There is no deprivatization. We are simply returning assets.
August 21, 23:15
There is no deprivatization. We are simply returning assets.
There is no deprivatization process in Russia, Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov said in an interview with writer and journalist Sergei Minaev.
"There is no deprivatization and it does not exist. I will tell you this - we are returning to the treasury the assets illegally lost by the state ," he said.
Krasnov added that the people who previously managed the production facilities did not invest money in their development, but transferred the funds abroad. Therefore, they did not work for Russia , the Prosecutor General concluded.
https://ria.ru/20240821/rossiya-1967518449.html - zinc
How many more assets illegally lost by the state need to be returned. Not to be confused with the revision of the privatization results.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9335339.html
Microsoft to restrict access to cloud subscriptions in Russia
August 22, 13:21
Microsoft to restrict access to cloud subscriptions in Russia
On August 21, 2024, Softline reported that the company received a notification from Microsoft about limiting corporate access for clients in the Russian Federation to certain cloud subscriptions starting from September 2, 2024. So far, this applies to all M365, O365 (Office 365) bundles. Separately purchased subscriptions should not be included in the list. Softline is clarifying this issue. On
August 20, 2024, we, as a partner, received a notification from Microsoft Corporation about limiting access to certain cloud subscriptions starting from September 2, 2024.
The restrictions apply to all legal entities registered in the Russian Federation. The exception will be multinational companies (MNCs) owned or controlled by legal entities outside the Russian Federation. The restrictions will affect all licensing channels (Enterprise and CSP).
We have generated and sent an additional written request, including based on your questions, to Microsoft Corporation with a request to provide answers:
• The exact list of products and bundles subject to restrictions;
• Availability periods for data stored in the cloud;
• Status of LSP, CSP agreements containing products subject to restrictions;
• What documents and communication channels can be used to confirm affiliation with an MNC;
At the moment, our main recommendation is to save data from the Microsoft cloud (BackUp). As support, we are ready to provide 10 hours of free technical support until September 12, 2024 to receive advice on Microsoft products and technologies subject to restrictions. To receive advice, please contact us at depurp@softline.com or through the account of the manager responsible for working with your organization.
In June 2024, Softline reported that Microsoft disabled subscriptions to Visio Online, Project Online, Power BI for more than half of all corporate customers from the Russian Federation.
From September 12, 2024, the US Treasury Department's ban on the supply of IT consulting and design services and IT support services and cloud services for enterprise management, as well as software for design and production, to "any person in the Russian Federation" comes into force.
https://habr.com/ru/news/837528/ - zinc
After 2.5 years of war, some legal entities continue to stubbornly use the software of the corporation of the main enemy of the Russian Federation and then ask for clarification...
Notes of a Chinese woman about Russia
August 22, 15:27
Interesting notes of a Chinese woman about visiting modern Russia.
Notes of a Chinese woman about Russia
The other day, my wife Korn and I returned from a trip to Russia - 25 days in total, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg + small towns and villages. She was in Russia for the first time. Along the way, I wrote down her impressions little by little so as not to forget, I got a list of 33 points, and now I will tell you everything)
I will say right away, if there are offended, as usual, I do not have the goal of belittling our Motherland, do not perceive some points negatively. The situation is different, the climate, traditions, population - it's clear. This is just a Chinese woman's view from the outside.
Let's go:
1. Greens
I mean edible greens and green vegetables. They are very expensive compared to China, and there is no choice at all. Onions are in the store for 70 rubles for 50 grams, that's all)
Onions in China are generally given out for free, take as much as you want, when you buy vegetables or meat. To buy 50 grams like that is nonsense.
She doesn't perceive dill and parsley as food.
For us, all this greenery is just sprinkled on top of the dish, for taste. The Chinese prepare separate dishes from all sorts of herbs, beans, sprouts, tops and everything else. In short, there was no way to cook all this on my own in Russia. Or go to the store where all sorts of arugula is, but who the hell needs it for that price.
2. Homeless people/drunks
The Chinese think that in other countries, especially capitalist ones, there are definitely homeless people sleeping on the streets. And in Russia, plus there are alcoholics lying around everywhere in packs. My wife asked to show them, I couldn't) Because we didn't see a single homeless person anywhere at all. Happy for the Motherland)
3. Cold
In her native Guangzhou in winter +15°. When in St. Petersburg in August, in SUMMER +18° and in Yekaterinburg +14° - it's very cold. A real shock. It's good that she took a winter coat, she wore it.
4. Cheap housing
I started to get carried away by the prices for apartments) It turned out that in Moscow the prices are like in our provincial city of Yiwu. In Yekaterinburg it's generally 5-6 million for an apartment - that's like buying housing in a village in China.
That's very cheap by Chinese standards. Why people complain about expensive housing and say that not everyone can afford it, they say - is absolutely incomprehensible. It's just paradise! If such prices were in China - it would be a fairy tale.
In Shanghai or Guangzhou a square meter costs several million rubles, that's what's called expensive.
5. Smoking women
Girls and women smoke a lot. It's noticeable on the streets. In China, the situation is approximately the same only in the north. In the middle and in the south, a smoking woman = a fallen woman. Well, I explained that in Russia this is not considered particularly shameful. Plus, they smoke all sorts of different devices - electronic cigarettes, sticks, etc. - in China this is an exception to the rule. Everyone smokes regular cigarettes.
6. Napkins
In China, napkins come in packs of this type:
They are everywhere. At home, on every table and desk, nightstand. In the office, everyone has their own pack on the table. In cafes, of course. In cars, for sure.
And they also look at what kind of napkins. Expensive good ones are a sign of good manners. They show off a little about this.
These napkins are used in any way - to wrap something, wipe your face, hands, wipe a glass, a table, every cherry pit that was spat out is wrapped in a napkin, etc. China consumes millions of tons of these napkins.
In Russia, they are almost never sold. Well, at least for some reason we did not come across any. There are either napkins in separate packs, or toilet paper. This is abnormal for a Chinese woman)
7. Multinationality
In China, there is a simple system of recognizing friend or foe - everyone is Asian, black eyes, black hair. Goes beyond the limits - it means laowai, it's clear. The fact that there are 52 different nationalities in China - but they are not particularly different from each other.
In Russia, she saw everyone except probably blacks - there are also Caucasians (again, different light-colored, dark-haired, red-haired, etc.), Asians, Caucasians, Central Asians. She points to a Caucasian - is this Russian? Well, yes, I think he is Russian. And this one? Also Russian. How do you tell your own from strangers? How do you do it in America? Yes, in Russia it is like in America. Whoever speaks Russian is Russian. This is a little unusual for a Chinese.
8. Tips
In China, they don’t bring bills for the table. After eating, go to the cashier at the exit, pay, and go. It is not customary to give tips at all. In Russia, they will bring the bill and put it on the table in a folder. Why is he talking? Well, you have to tip.
And, like in America, right? Yes, everything here is like in America. She then carried cash tips with her and showed the waiters what she put in so that they wouldn’t worry.
9. Garages
Also something new. Garages as a separate building for a car are usually not available in China. But here in Russia there are whole arrays of garages.
What is this? Why? To store the car and drink beer with the guys, I explain. Let's go have a look. Let's go. I took her to the garages) We found an open one - and indeed, there was a car, three guys sitting there and drinking beer. So I told the truth) I appreciated it as a useful phenomenon for men's leisure.
10. Table reservations
Wherever you go, they always ask if you booked a table. And the hall is half empty, what nonsense. Are they having an event here? No, I say, people just call and book on the phone. And now we can't sit down. It's strange... oh, do they pay a deposit in advance? No, not always. You just call and book, often for free. Very strange.. what if no one comes? Well, they won't come and they won't come)
In China, you can't book a table almost anywhere. People sit in a live queue at the entrance.
11. Mayonnaise
Well, she already knew about mayonnaise, of course, she is married to a Russian after all. But she considers it disgusting. They don't eat it with meat and regular dishes in China at all.
What she didn't expect was the scale of the disaster - tons of mayonnaise on the shelves in the stores:
It was a shock. It turns out I'm not the only strange Russian, we're all like that) Do you eat it with spoons here? What are all these kilo buckets for?
12. Pay toilets
I warned her. But I still couldn't get used to the fact that you have to pay for a toilet. I studied the first toilet on our way for a long time - near the hotel in Moscow upon arrival:
A miracle of technology. And why don't they build an ordinary permanent "house"? It's paid, so there is money. I couldn't find an answer to this question. In China, all toilets are permanent and always free. There are a lot of them.
13. Historical buildings, architecture
No emotions whatsoever. Well, a house is a house. A palace is a palace. Even in St. Petersburg there is zero admiration. Well, how can I think that, our history is the best history in the world) But for a person "out of the loop", who doesn't know why a column made of a single piece of stone is amazing - it's just a building and that's it. There is no context in my head. Different cultures, different planets.
Our Chinese architecture speaks better - there are such and such roofs, supports, but here in Russia it is not clear what is so special. Well, an old house. Well, a statue on the roof.
Well, of course, it is beautiful, I took pictures of everything, posted them on social networks. But just as a curious object, not as an object of admiration or something like that. I have not looked at St. Petersburg from this point of view)
14. History
The same applies to history in general. What emperors were there, Pushkin or Peter the Great lived here - this is generally fantasy. There is not a drop of Russian history in my head. Excursions are absolutely not interesting. Because it is not clear who all these people are talking about.
Just like for us a dark forest is the period of the "golden age" of China under the Tang Dynasty, for example. We practically live on different planets.
15. Trains and train stations
We traveled on the Sapsan, and also on a regular train from Moscow to Yekaterinburg - I wanted to show the vastness of our Motherland.
Please do not be offended here. Russian train stations are too far behind Chinese ones. This seems strange to a Chinese woman. It seems like a big country, rich, people love trains... What about the train stations? Old and small, he says. Compare Russia / China.
High-speed trains. For a Chinese person, the Sapsan is not a high-speed train in the full sense of the word. A commuter train, approximately. In terms of speed.
16. Order on the roads
A huge plus is the road traffic in Russia. If you compare it with China, then all our drivers are simply angels and 200% follow the rules. No one climbs in, cuts off, or goes where they shouldn't. These scooters are not everywhere.
I was surprised how fast they drive around the city. They are not afraid that someone will pull out onto the road from the yard on the right.
China is just a mess.
17. Tall, beautiful people
I constantly admired both women and men. Beautiful, white, tall. I wish I were like that..
Now she tells me that I'm the shortest in Russia and why did she choose me? I should have looked at everyone) I'm 175 cm tall
18. Street musicians
It's not to say that there aren't any in China, there are some in places. But not of such quality) Basically, they yell karaoke at random in the park to themselves.
In Russia, you can find concert quality on the street. In St. Petersburg, we went to listen to them three nights in a row. I really liked Korn. Both the music itself and the atmosphere - slightly tipsy cheerful people singing songs in chorus, it's really cool.
19. Face control
We ran into each other in Yekaterinburg. We wanted to go to a Russian karaoke bar. They wouldn't let us into two karaoke bars. I don't remember whether it was because she was wearing shorts or because I was wearing sneakers. Or both. In short, they don't dress like that here, it's not allowed.
That was what offended her.
In China, there is almost no face control anywhere. You can go to any club or karaoke bar in flip-flops - no one cares. Well, except for really cool expensive establishments with style.
20. Slow couriers
In China, couriers (food delivery) are simply champions in running and scooter racing. They really run with this bag. On the roads they race like crazy.
I pass by the courier base in the morning. At seven in the morning they line up at the entrance at attention. The courier commander comes out. Hello, comrade couriers! Good health to comrade commander! What are we going to do today? Deliver food! How are we going to do it? Faster than lightning!!! Hurray!! And they ran on scooters.
If the food is more than half an hour away from delivery, no one will take it.
In Russia, the courier walks slowly, strolls along the embankment, takes photos along the way. In an hour the food will be delivered - well, okay.
Well, then I got used to it. I even started saying that in China people are driven, you can work normally without running like a crazy person down the street with a bowl of soup.
21. Self-service
At McDonald's, people take their trays off the table themselves. In the canteens too. And the table stays clean. It was unusual and very surprising. What nice, caring, polite, and clean people there are in Russia.
In China, no one ever takes anything away themselves, the whole table is always littered.
Now in China, when you go to eat, you look around for where to take your tray)
22. Temples
They left a very pleasant impression. Quiet, grace. Candles are burning. She became a little more involved, we went to several temples, she likes them.
I think she might get baptized since that's the case) Although she doesn't believe in God.
Chinese temples really irritate me because they constantly extort money there. At the entrance, they ask you to buy this incense, or a minister will come up and start telling fortunes for money, trying to sell you. Yes, fortunes are told for money in Chinese temples.
It's often noisy - sometimes they beat gongs, sometimes they just yell. In short, there is no peace, tranquility or grace there.
23. Low salaries
In Yekaterinburg, I saw an ad in a Pyaterochka store, 35 thousand rubles. What does that say, some kind of promotion? No, I said, they are offering this salary to cashiers.
I was surprised. This is less than the subsistence minimum in Guangzhou...
Well, he explained that you don’t need to be a cashier at Pyaterochka, you need an education, a good job and everything will be fine.
24. Summer cottages/vegetable gardens
There is no such thing in China. Either you have a house in the village (where usually no plot is provided), or an apartment in the city. Nobody sells plots for summer cottages separately in principle. This phenomenon does not exist.
People sometimes grow something on vacant lots themselves, they are not driven away especially if they do not bother anyone. But there are no summer cottages at all.
Now she wants a summer cottage with a vegetable garden, to plant potatoes)
25. Cleanliness
On the streets, in public places, everywhere. And it is clean because people do not litter. This seemed really cool to her. People are clean, well-mannered.
In China, too, it is generally clean. But not because they do not litter. They'll make a mess all around in a day/night. There are just a lot of cleaners, they clean it all up that same night. If there weren't so many janitors, there would simply be an apocalypse.
26. Tea
People drink tea from bags. In a mug. They offer it to her - like, you're Chinese, here, drink. She can't drink that kind of tea.
In China, if they drink tea, they'll sit down normally, brew it, and drink it slowly in small cups. That's called really drinking tea.
But in a mug - well, that rarely happens. There are no bags at all.
People carry thermoses with light tea, but that's a slightly different phenomenon.
In general, our Russian tea drinking can be compared to smoking a cigarette, while the Chinese one is like a hookah. I found this analogy. Tobacco is better, the process is longer, the pleasure is greater.
27. Liquor stores
Also a new phenomenon. But she was prepared for this, in the north of China they also drink a lot. In the south, where she comes from, they drink very little. Alcohol markets do not exist at all. There are shops with expensive gift alcohol, but that's another story. There
was just a funny situation, we had just arrived in Moscow, checked into the hotel, it was late, we go out into the street and there was like a supermarket. We go in and there was this picture:
Well, everything speaks to you and Russians clearly)
28. Plov
Has become a favorite dish. She simply cannot live without rice. She constantly went to Uzbek cafes to eat plov. Sometimes she took her Chinese sauce that she brought with her, added it - it turns out to be an almost 100% Chinese dish.
29. Cheese
They don't make cheese in China. There is only imported cheese, expensive, almost no one eats it. In Russia, she tried cheese - and off we went. She liked it very much. In the end, we brought 3 kg of cheese with us in our luggage, and I'm not kidding. Different.
30. Young cities
Here in Yekaterinburg there was a city day - 301 years. St. Petersburg is also over 300 years old. Moscow is a thousand! What a rich history, it would seem.
But Korn always said that our cities are very young. After all, her native Guangzhou is already 2,200 years old, our "village" Yiwu is 2,300 years old. And so on. 300 years of Yekaterinburg - that's not serious, like. A young city.
31. Salmon
Favorite fish. In Russia it is FIVE TIMES cheaper. It was a total shock. How the hell. I'm still thinking about how to import salmon from Russia here to China.
32. Silence In general, it is quiet in Russia. On the streets, in the parks, in the houses. Nobody yells. Nobody honks 24/7. At 6:30 in the morning, they don't turn on the megaphone in the yard " Aa ... Welcome to China, they say) It turns out that the Izmailovo Hotel in Moscow, where we lived, has separate floors for the Chinese. Thank God they didn't put us there, since I'm Russian. When I accidentally went to this floor for the Chinese, I was hit by a sound wave from a conversation between two Chinese grandmothers. So the phenomenon is really problematic) 33. Russians don't smile Another myth was shattered. I was afraid that everyone was so strict, sullen. In fact, Russians smile more than the Chinese. Everyone is friendly, responsive. I spoke English with many of them - everyone tried to understand and help. With a smile. Sincerely. In Russia, people have a different soul, he says. Thank you for reading to the end) My channel in Telegram: China Inside Out https://telegra.ph/Zametki-kitayanki-o-Rossii-08-21 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9336335.html
Google Translator
******
Russia Might Soon Redirect Its Gas Pipeline Plans From China To Iran & India
Andrew Korybko
Aug 22, 2024
The continued pricing dispute over the Power of Siberia II gas pipeline might lead to Russia prioritizing its new gas MoUs with Iran and Azerbaijan to pioneer a southern-directed pipeline for facilitating Russian-Iranian gas swaps with India.
The South China Morning Post reported earlier this week that “Future murky for Russia-China pipeline as Mongolia omits project from long-term plan” after the new coalition government didn’t include the Power of Siberia II (PoS-2) gas pipeline in their action program for the next four years. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was optimistic when asked about it during a press conference, however, noting that negotiations are still ongoing and expressing hope that a deal will soon be reached.
Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang just visited Moscow this week where he met with Putin to discuss “large-scale joint projects” between their nations according to the Russian leader. This could be interpreted as a signal that their pricing dispute was probably touched upon during these talks. About that, it was analyzed here in early June that the crux of the problem is that China wants the lowest price possible while Russia naturally wants the highest one, and they’ve thus far been unable to compromise.
Later that month, Russia and Iran signed a gas pipeline Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), but this analysis here questioned whether it was more about optics than substance. The Caspian Sea littoral states would have to all agree on an undersea pipeline, though this has been the bone of contention for years as regards the proposed one between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. Moreover, Azerbaijani-Iranian ties remain plagued by distrust so it seemed unlikely that one would be built across Azerbaijan either.
The optics angle therefore appeared to be the most accurate one for analyzing this MoU since it seemed in light of the Sino-Russo pricing dispute over the PoS-2 that Russia might have wanted to show China that it has other customers in Iran and further afield in India via a potential swap agreement. This might have then been leveraged by Russia to encourage China to reach a compromise with it instead of continuing to demand basement-bargain prices that Moscow considers to be unacceptable.
The calculations described in the preceding two paragraphs might have just changed though after Putin’s trip to Azerbaijan, where Eurasian integration was at the top of the agenda, including its energy component after Gazprom and Azerbaijani state energy company SOCAR signed a strategic MoU. It specifically mentions cooperation along the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), which links Russia with India via Iran through the three branch corridors of Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea, and Central Asia.
This came less than a week after Mongolia’s new coalition government approved their country’s action plan for the next four years on 16 August. For those who might not be aware, the PoS-2 is supposed to transit through Mongolia, and its primary goal is to replace the Yamal gas field’s lost European customers with China. The fact that Mongolia omitted this megaproject from their action plan implies that it won’t see construction for some time, which is a fair assessment considering the abovementioned insight.
That could change if China finally agrees to reach a compromise with Russia on their pricing dispute, perhaps after being influenced by Russia’s MoUs with Iran and Azerbaijan into realizing that alternatives (indirectly including India via a gas swap) exist, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world if it doesn’t. In the event that their dispute still persists despite these latest moves, Russia might then put its full diplomatic energy into brokering an Azerbaijani-Iranian rapprochement for facilitating its southern plans.
India would be crucial to the success of these efforts since it would have to commit to purchasing Russian-swapped Iranian gas in spite of the US’ sanctions against the Islamic Republic’s energy industry that led to India abandoning its prior import of that country’s resources. If it musters the political will, then the other three parties – Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran – would then know that they’d profit accordingly, thus improving the chances of a Russian-brokered Azerbaijani-Iranian rapprochement.
The arguments in favor of India changing its stance towards the US’ sanctions against Iran’s energy industry are that Indo-US ties have become very troubled over the past year due an alleged assassination plot and America’s role in overthrowing the Bangladeshi government earlier this month. Moreover, India considers itself to be a rising Great Power and the Voice of the Global South in the interim tri-multipolar world order, so continuing to voluntarily comply with such restrictions greatly damages its prestige.
There’s also the heated Sino-Indo rivalry to consider. India has done its utmost since the special operation and resultant Western sanctions to preemptively avert its Russian strategic partner’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China. To that end, it might therefore believe that it’s worth risking more of the US’ wrath by ignoring its sanctions for the sake of receiving more discounted energy via a Russian-Iranian swap and thus also reducing Russia’s export (and revenue) dependence on China.
The best-case scenario would be that both the PoS-2 and whatever this southern pipeline will be called end up being built in parallel, but since the first might not be built for some time, then it’s best for Russia to concentrate on the second. If a deal is reached with the associated states for building it, then Russia could more compellingly leverage that to encourage China to compromise on their pricing dispute, thus potentially leading to PoS-2 beginning construction by the end of the decade (though hopefully earlier).
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-m ... ct-its-gas
What is it about little Andy and China? He seems to fear China more than the US, as though China was the greater threat to Russian sovereignty. Is Andy an anti-communist liberal?
August 21, 23:15
There is no deprivatization. We are simply returning assets.
There is no deprivatization process in Russia, Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov said in an interview with writer and journalist Sergei Minaev.
"There is no deprivatization and it does not exist. I will tell you this - we are returning to the treasury the assets illegally lost by the state ," he said.
Krasnov added that the people who previously managed the production facilities did not invest money in their development, but transferred the funds abroad. Therefore, they did not work for Russia , the Prosecutor General concluded.
https://ria.ru/20240821/rossiya-1967518449.html - zinc
How many more assets illegally lost by the state need to be returned. Not to be confused with the revision of the privatization results.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9335339.html
Microsoft to restrict access to cloud subscriptions in Russia
August 22, 13:21
Microsoft to restrict access to cloud subscriptions in Russia
On August 21, 2024, Softline reported that the company received a notification from Microsoft about limiting corporate access for clients in the Russian Federation to certain cloud subscriptions starting from September 2, 2024. So far, this applies to all M365, O365 (Office 365) bundles. Separately purchased subscriptions should not be included in the list. Softline is clarifying this issue. On
August 20, 2024, we, as a partner, received a notification from Microsoft Corporation about limiting access to certain cloud subscriptions starting from September 2, 2024.
The restrictions apply to all legal entities registered in the Russian Federation. The exception will be multinational companies (MNCs) owned or controlled by legal entities outside the Russian Federation. The restrictions will affect all licensing channels (Enterprise and CSP).
We have generated and sent an additional written request, including based on your questions, to Microsoft Corporation with a request to provide answers:
• The exact list of products and bundles subject to restrictions;
• Availability periods for data stored in the cloud;
• Status of LSP, CSP agreements containing products subject to restrictions;
• What documents and communication channels can be used to confirm affiliation with an MNC;
At the moment, our main recommendation is to save data from the Microsoft cloud (BackUp). As support, we are ready to provide 10 hours of free technical support until September 12, 2024 to receive advice on Microsoft products and technologies subject to restrictions. To receive advice, please contact us at depurp@softline.com or through the account of the manager responsible for working with your organization.
In June 2024, Softline reported that Microsoft disabled subscriptions to Visio Online, Project Online, Power BI for more than half of all corporate customers from the Russian Federation.
From September 12, 2024, the US Treasury Department's ban on the supply of IT consulting and design services and IT support services and cloud services for enterprise management, as well as software for design and production, to "any person in the Russian Federation" comes into force.
https://habr.com/ru/news/837528/ - zinc
After 2.5 years of war, some legal entities continue to stubbornly use the software of the corporation of the main enemy of the Russian Federation and then ask for clarification...
Notes of a Chinese woman about Russia
August 22, 15:27
Interesting notes of a Chinese woman about visiting modern Russia.
Notes of a Chinese woman about Russia
The other day, my wife Korn and I returned from a trip to Russia - 25 days in total, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg + small towns and villages. She was in Russia for the first time. Along the way, I wrote down her impressions little by little so as not to forget, I got a list of 33 points, and now I will tell you everything)
I will say right away, if there are offended, as usual, I do not have the goal of belittling our Motherland, do not perceive some points negatively. The situation is different, the climate, traditions, population - it's clear. This is just a Chinese woman's view from the outside.
Let's go:
1. Greens
I mean edible greens and green vegetables. They are very expensive compared to China, and there is no choice at all. Onions are in the store for 70 rubles for 50 grams, that's all)
Onions in China are generally given out for free, take as much as you want, when you buy vegetables or meat. To buy 50 grams like that is nonsense.
She doesn't perceive dill and parsley as food.
For us, all this greenery is just sprinkled on top of the dish, for taste. The Chinese prepare separate dishes from all sorts of herbs, beans, sprouts, tops and everything else. In short, there was no way to cook all this on my own in Russia. Or go to the store where all sorts of arugula is, but who the hell needs it for that price.
2. Homeless people/drunks
The Chinese think that in other countries, especially capitalist ones, there are definitely homeless people sleeping on the streets. And in Russia, plus there are alcoholics lying around everywhere in packs. My wife asked to show them, I couldn't) Because we didn't see a single homeless person anywhere at all. Happy for the Motherland)
3. Cold
In her native Guangzhou in winter +15°. When in St. Petersburg in August, in SUMMER +18° and in Yekaterinburg +14° - it's very cold. A real shock. It's good that she took a winter coat, she wore it.
4. Cheap housing
I started to get carried away by the prices for apartments) It turned out that in Moscow the prices are like in our provincial city of Yiwu. In Yekaterinburg it's generally 5-6 million for an apartment - that's like buying housing in a village in China.
That's very cheap by Chinese standards. Why people complain about expensive housing and say that not everyone can afford it, they say - is absolutely incomprehensible. It's just paradise! If such prices were in China - it would be a fairy tale.
In Shanghai or Guangzhou a square meter costs several million rubles, that's what's called expensive.
5. Smoking women
Girls and women smoke a lot. It's noticeable on the streets. In China, the situation is approximately the same only in the north. In the middle and in the south, a smoking woman = a fallen woman. Well, I explained that in Russia this is not considered particularly shameful. Plus, they smoke all sorts of different devices - electronic cigarettes, sticks, etc. - in China this is an exception to the rule. Everyone smokes regular cigarettes.
6. Napkins
In China, napkins come in packs of this type:
They are everywhere. At home, on every table and desk, nightstand. In the office, everyone has their own pack on the table. In cafes, of course. In cars, for sure.
And they also look at what kind of napkins. Expensive good ones are a sign of good manners. They show off a little about this.
These napkins are used in any way - to wrap something, wipe your face, hands, wipe a glass, a table, every cherry pit that was spat out is wrapped in a napkin, etc. China consumes millions of tons of these napkins.
In Russia, they are almost never sold. Well, at least for some reason we did not come across any. There are either napkins in separate packs, or toilet paper. This is abnormal for a Chinese woman)
7. Multinationality
In China, there is a simple system of recognizing friend or foe - everyone is Asian, black eyes, black hair. Goes beyond the limits - it means laowai, it's clear. The fact that there are 52 different nationalities in China - but they are not particularly different from each other.
In Russia, she saw everyone except probably blacks - there are also Caucasians (again, different light-colored, dark-haired, red-haired, etc.), Asians, Caucasians, Central Asians. She points to a Caucasian - is this Russian? Well, yes, I think he is Russian. And this one? Also Russian. How do you tell your own from strangers? How do you do it in America? Yes, in Russia it is like in America. Whoever speaks Russian is Russian. This is a little unusual for a Chinese.
8. Tips
In China, they don’t bring bills for the table. After eating, go to the cashier at the exit, pay, and go. It is not customary to give tips at all. In Russia, they will bring the bill and put it on the table in a folder. Why is he talking? Well, you have to tip.
And, like in America, right? Yes, everything here is like in America. She then carried cash tips with her and showed the waiters what she put in so that they wouldn’t worry.
9. Garages
Also something new. Garages as a separate building for a car are usually not available in China. But here in Russia there are whole arrays of garages.
What is this? Why? To store the car and drink beer with the guys, I explain. Let's go have a look. Let's go. I took her to the garages) We found an open one - and indeed, there was a car, three guys sitting there and drinking beer. So I told the truth) I appreciated it as a useful phenomenon for men's leisure.
10. Table reservations
Wherever you go, they always ask if you booked a table. And the hall is half empty, what nonsense. Are they having an event here? No, I say, people just call and book on the phone. And now we can't sit down. It's strange... oh, do they pay a deposit in advance? No, not always. You just call and book, often for free. Very strange.. what if no one comes? Well, they won't come and they won't come)
In China, you can't book a table almost anywhere. People sit in a live queue at the entrance.
11. Mayonnaise
Well, she already knew about mayonnaise, of course, she is married to a Russian after all. But she considers it disgusting. They don't eat it with meat and regular dishes in China at all.
What she didn't expect was the scale of the disaster - tons of mayonnaise on the shelves in the stores:
It was a shock. It turns out I'm not the only strange Russian, we're all like that) Do you eat it with spoons here? What are all these kilo buckets for?
12. Pay toilets
I warned her. But I still couldn't get used to the fact that you have to pay for a toilet. I studied the first toilet on our way for a long time - near the hotel in Moscow upon arrival:
A miracle of technology. And why don't they build an ordinary permanent "house"? It's paid, so there is money. I couldn't find an answer to this question. In China, all toilets are permanent and always free. There are a lot of them.
13. Historical buildings, architecture
No emotions whatsoever. Well, a house is a house. A palace is a palace. Even in St. Petersburg there is zero admiration. Well, how can I think that, our history is the best history in the world) But for a person "out of the loop", who doesn't know why a column made of a single piece of stone is amazing - it's just a building and that's it. There is no context in my head. Different cultures, different planets.
Our Chinese architecture speaks better - there are such and such roofs, supports, but here in Russia it is not clear what is so special. Well, an old house. Well, a statue on the roof.
Well, of course, it is beautiful, I took pictures of everything, posted them on social networks. But just as a curious object, not as an object of admiration or something like that. I have not looked at St. Petersburg from this point of view)
14. History
The same applies to history in general. What emperors were there, Pushkin or Peter the Great lived here - this is generally fantasy. There is not a drop of Russian history in my head. Excursions are absolutely not interesting. Because it is not clear who all these people are talking about.
Just like for us a dark forest is the period of the "golden age" of China under the Tang Dynasty, for example. We practically live on different planets.
15. Trains and train stations
We traveled on the Sapsan, and also on a regular train from Moscow to Yekaterinburg - I wanted to show the vastness of our Motherland.
Please do not be offended here. Russian train stations are too far behind Chinese ones. This seems strange to a Chinese woman. It seems like a big country, rich, people love trains... What about the train stations? Old and small, he says. Compare Russia / China.
High-speed trains. For a Chinese person, the Sapsan is not a high-speed train in the full sense of the word. A commuter train, approximately. In terms of speed.
16. Order on the roads
A huge plus is the road traffic in Russia. If you compare it with China, then all our drivers are simply angels and 200% follow the rules. No one climbs in, cuts off, or goes where they shouldn't. These scooters are not everywhere.
I was surprised how fast they drive around the city. They are not afraid that someone will pull out onto the road from the yard on the right.
China is just a mess.
17. Tall, beautiful people
I constantly admired both women and men. Beautiful, white, tall. I wish I were like that..
Now she tells me that I'm the shortest in Russia and why did she choose me? I should have looked at everyone) I'm 175 cm tall
18. Street musicians
It's not to say that there aren't any in China, there are some in places. But not of such quality) Basically, they yell karaoke at random in the park to themselves.
In Russia, you can find concert quality on the street. In St. Petersburg, we went to listen to them three nights in a row. I really liked Korn. Both the music itself and the atmosphere - slightly tipsy cheerful people singing songs in chorus, it's really cool.
19. Face control
We ran into each other in Yekaterinburg. We wanted to go to a Russian karaoke bar. They wouldn't let us into two karaoke bars. I don't remember whether it was because she was wearing shorts or because I was wearing sneakers. Or both. In short, they don't dress like that here, it's not allowed.
That was what offended her.
In China, there is almost no face control anywhere. You can go to any club or karaoke bar in flip-flops - no one cares. Well, except for really cool expensive establishments with style.
20. Slow couriers
In China, couriers (food delivery) are simply champions in running and scooter racing. They really run with this bag. On the roads they race like crazy.
I pass by the courier base in the morning. At seven in the morning they line up at the entrance at attention. The courier commander comes out. Hello, comrade couriers! Good health to comrade commander! What are we going to do today? Deliver food! How are we going to do it? Faster than lightning!!! Hurray!! And they ran on scooters.
If the food is more than half an hour away from delivery, no one will take it.
In Russia, the courier walks slowly, strolls along the embankment, takes photos along the way. In an hour the food will be delivered - well, okay.
Well, then I got used to it. I even started saying that in China people are driven, you can work normally without running like a crazy person down the street with a bowl of soup.
21. Self-service
At McDonald's, people take their trays off the table themselves. In the canteens too. And the table stays clean. It was unusual and very surprising. What nice, caring, polite, and clean people there are in Russia.
In China, no one ever takes anything away themselves, the whole table is always littered.
Now in China, when you go to eat, you look around for where to take your tray)
22. Temples
They left a very pleasant impression. Quiet, grace. Candles are burning. She became a little more involved, we went to several temples, she likes them.
I think she might get baptized since that's the case) Although she doesn't believe in God.
Chinese temples really irritate me because they constantly extort money there. At the entrance, they ask you to buy this incense, or a minister will come up and start telling fortunes for money, trying to sell you. Yes, fortunes are told for money in Chinese temples.
It's often noisy - sometimes they beat gongs, sometimes they just yell. In short, there is no peace, tranquility or grace there.
23. Low salaries
In Yekaterinburg, I saw an ad in a Pyaterochka store, 35 thousand rubles. What does that say, some kind of promotion? No, I said, they are offering this salary to cashiers.
I was surprised. This is less than the subsistence minimum in Guangzhou...
Well, he explained that you don’t need to be a cashier at Pyaterochka, you need an education, a good job and everything will be fine.
24. Summer cottages/vegetable gardens
There is no such thing in China. Either you have a house in the village (where usually no plot is provided), or an apartment in the city. Nobody sells plots for summer cottages separately in principle. This phenomenon does not exist.
People sometimes grow something on vacant lots themselves, they are not driven away especially if they do not bother anyone. But there are no summer cottages at all.
Now she wants a summer cottage with a vegetable garden, to plant potatoes)
25. Cleanliness
On the streets, in public places, everywhere. And it is clean because people do not litter. This seemed really cool to her. People are clean, well-mannered.
In China, too, it is generally clean. But not because they do not litter. They'll make a mess all around in a day/night. There are just a lot of cleaners, they clean it all up that same night. If there weren't so many janitors, there would simply be an apocalypse.
26. Tea
People drink tea from bags. In a mug. They offer it to her - like, you're Chinese, here, drink. She can't drink that kind of tea.
In China, if they drink tea, they'll sit down normally, brew it, and drink it slowly in small cups. That's called really drinking tea.
But in a mug - well, that rarely happens. There are no bags at all.
People carry thermoses with light tea, but that's a slightly different phenomenon.
In general, our Russian tea drinking can be compared to smoking a cigarette, while the Chinese one is like a hookah. I found this analogy. Tobacco is better, the process is longer, the pleasure is greater.
27. Liquor stores
Also a new phenomenon. But she was prepared for this, in the north of China they also drink a lot. In the south, where she comes from, they drink very little. Alcohol markets do not exist at all. There are shops with expensive gift alcohol, but that's another story. There
was just a funny situation, we had just arrived in Moscow, checked into the hotel, it was late, we go out into the street and there was like a supermarket. We go in and there was this picture:
Well, everything speaks to you and Russians clearly)
28. Plov
Has become a favorite dish. She simply cannot live without rice. She constantly went to Uzbek cafes to eat plov. Sometimes she took her Chinese sauce that she brought with her, added it - it turns out to be an almost 100% Chinese dish.
29. Cheese
They don't make cheese in China. There is only imported cheese, expensive, almost no one eats it. In Russia, she tried cheese - and off we went. She liked it very much. In the end, we brought 3 kg of cheese with us in our luggage, and I'm not kidding. Different.
30. Young cities
Here in Yekaterinburg there was a city day - 301 years. St. Petersburg is also over 300 years old. Moscow is a thousand! What a rich history, it would seem.
But Korn always said that our cities are very young. After all, her native Guangzhou is already 2,200 years old, our "village" Yiwu is 2,300 years old. And so on. 300 years of Yekaterinburg - that's not serious, like. A young city.
31. Salmon
Favorite fish. In Russia it is FIVE TIMES cheaper. It was a total shock. How the hell. I'm still thinking about how to import salmon from Russia here to China.
32. Silence In general, it is quiet in Russia. On the streets, in the parks, in the houses. Nobody yells. Nobody honks 24/7. At 6:30 in the morning, they don't turn on the megaphone in the yard " Aa ... Welcome to China, they say) It turns out that the Izmailovo Hotel in Moscow, where we lived, has separate floors for the Chinese. Thank God they didn't put us there, since I'm Russian. When I accidentally went to this floor for the Chinese, I was hit by a sound wave from a conversation between two Chinese grandmothers. So the phenomenon is really problematic) 33. Russians don't smile Another myth was shattered. I was afraid that everyone was so strict, sullen. In fact, Russians smile more than the Chinese. Everyone is friendly, responsive. I spoke English with many of them - everyone tried to understand and help. With a smile. Sincerely. In Russia, people have a different soul, he says. Thank you for reading to the end) My channel in Telegram: China Inside Out https://telegra.ph/Zametki-kitayanki-o-Rossii-08-21 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9336335.html
Google Translator
******
Russia Might Soon Redirect Its Gas Pipeline Plans From China To Iran & India
Andrew Korybko
Aug 22, 2024
The continued pricing dispute over the Power of Siberia II gas pipeline might lead to Russia prioritizing its new gas MoUs with Iran and Azerbaijan to pioneer a southern-directed pipeline for facilitating Russian-Iranian gas swaps with India.
The South China Morning Post reported earlier this week that “Future murky for Russia-China pipeline as Mongolia omits project from long-term plan” after the new coalition government didn’t include the Power of Siberia II (PoS-2) gas pipeline in their action program for the next four years. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was optimistic when asked about it during a press conference, however, noting that negotiations are still ongoing and expressing hope that a deal will soon be reached.
Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang just visited Moscow this week where he met with Putin to discuss “large-scale joint projects” between their nations according to the Russian leader. This could be interpreted as a signal that their pricing dispute was probably touched upon during these talks. About that, it was analyzed here in early June that the crux of the problem is that China wants the lowest price possible while Russia naturally wants the highest one, and they’ve thus far been unable to compromise.
Later that month, Russia and Iran signed a gas pipeline Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), but this analysis here questioned whether it was more about optics than substance. The Caspian Sea littoral states would have to all agree on an undersea pipeline, though this has been the bone of contention for years as regards the proposed one between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. Moreover, Azerbaijani-Iranian ties remain plagued by distrust so it seemed unlikely that one would be built across Azerbaijan either.
The optics angle therefore appeared to be the most accurate one for analyzing this MoU since it seemed in light of the Sino-Russo pricing dispute over the PoS-2 that Russia might have wanted to show China that it has other customers in Iran and further afield in India via a potential swap agreement. This might have then been leveraged by Russia to encourage China to reach a compromise with it instead of continuing to demand basement-bargain prices that Moscow considers to be unacceptable.
The calculations described in the preceding two paragraphs might have just changed though after Putin’s trip to Azerbaijan, where Eurasian integration was at the top of the agenda, including its energy component after Gazprom and Azerbaijani state energy company SOCAR signed a strategic MoU. It specifically mentions cooperation along the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC), which links Russia with India via Iran through the three branch corridors of Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea, and Central Asia.
This came less than a week after Mongolia’s new coalition government approved their country’s action plan for the next four years on 16 August. For those who might not be aware, the PoS-2 is supposed to transit through Mongolia, and its primary goal is to replace the Yamal gas field’s lost European customers with China. The fact that Mongolia omitted this megaproject from their action plan implies that it won’t see construction for some time, which is a fair assessment considering the abovementioned insight.
That could change if China finally agrees to reach a compromise with Russia on their pricing dispute, perhaps after being influenced by Russia’s MoUs with Iran and Azerbaijan into realizing that alternatives (indirectly including India via a gas swap) exist, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world if it doesn’t. In the event that their dispute still persists despite these latest moves, Russia might then put its full diplomatic energy into brokering an Azerbaijani-Iranian rapprochement for facilitating its southern plans.
India would be crucial to the success of these efforts since it would have to commit to purchasing Russian-swapped Iranian gas in spite of the US’ sanctions against the Islamic Republic’s energy industry that led to India abandoning its prior import of that country’s resources. If it musters the political will, then the other three parties – Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran – would then know that they’d profit accordingly, thus improving the chances of a Russian-brokered Azerbaijani-Iranian rapprochement.
The arguments in favor of India changing its stance towards the US’ sanctions against Iran’s energy industry are that Indo-US ties have become very troubled over the past year due an alleged assassination plot and America’s role in overthrowing the Bangladeshi government earlier this month. Moreover, India considers itself to be a rising Great Power and the Voice of the Global South in the interim tri-multipolar world order, so continuing to voluntarily comply with such restrictions greatly damages its prestige.
There’s also the heated Sino-Indo rivalry to consider. India has done its utmost since the special operation and resultant Western sanctions to preemptively avert its Russian strategic partner’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China. To that end, it might therefore believe that it’s worth risking more of the US’ wrath by ignoring its sanctions for the sake of receiving more discounted energy via a Russian-Iranian swap and thus also reducing Russia’s export (and revenue) dependence on China.
The best-case scenario would be that both the PoS-2 and whatever this southern pipeline will be called end up being built in parallel, but since the first might not be built for some time, then it’s best for Russia to concentrate on the second. If a deal is reached with the associated states for building it, then Russia could more compellingly leverage that to encourage China to compromise on their pricing dispute, thus potentially leading to PoS-2 beginning construction by the end of the decade (though hopefully earlier).
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-m ... ct-its-gas
What is it about little Andy and China? He seems to fear China more than the US, as though China was the greater threat to Russian sovereignty. Is Andy an anti-communist liberal?
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
(Looking for that dark cloud in the silver lining...))
Tatiana Ryabkova: Will the Reduction in Inequality in Russia Survive the War?
August 22, 2024 natyliesb 1 Comment
By Tatiana Ryabkova, Russia Post, 7/26/24
Journalist Tatiana Rybakova notes that the war with Ukraine has led to a reduction of inequality in Russia and looks at whether that will continue after the war ends.
Russia’s economically depressed areas – typically where defense enterprises, agriculture and barely competitive sectors, such as light industry, are concentrated – are currently on the rise. The previously prosperous northwest of the country is declining, while Eastern Siberia and the Far East have caught a second wind.
Social shifts caused by the war
The Russian middle class, increasingly filled with officials in recent years, is now seeing more people from disadvantaged social strata, which previously seemed doomed to poverty and debt. Meanwhile, the part of the middle class that is usually called the “creative intelligentsia” is visibly struggling – besides those who are on the pro-war side. What do these shifts mean?
The Baikal–Amur Mainline (BAM) and Trans-Siberian Railway, the main railways of Eastern Siberia and Primorye (the territory along the Sea of Japan), are overwhelmed. They have become the main routes for transporting goods to China and Far Eastern ports, from where they are sent to India and other countries. Wage gains in logistics have outpaced all other sectors, including IT. Not long ago, it was people working in transportation at the other end of the country, in the Northwestern Federal District, who made good money; today, however, the Baltic ports, customs terminals and railways are empty: practically no freight flows to or from Europe – the borders are closed.
Where there is freight, there is money. The closure of the northwestern borders was a big hit to the region’s timber industry, which had been the biggest in the country. It is too expensive to transport timber across the country to China, and besides, the Siberian taiga has its own lumberjacks and sawmills. Moreover, China has its own pulp and paper mills, several of which are located right on the border with Russia, while the inputs are provided by long-trusted local suppliers. Industry officials say that it is economically feasible for these mills to transport raw materials from no more than a thousand kilometers away.
Timber is not the only industry on the border with Europe that has suffered, as the entire region lived on trade with Russia’s neighbors. In particular, raw materials and components were actually cheaper for a local enterprise to bring over from the neighboring Baltic countries or Finland. Petersburgers, citing better quality and price, even went to Finland for their weekly groceries.
Now, Russia’s Far East is invigorated. For example, the largest construction companies in Russia have rushed in to build new residential complexes in Vladivostok, Sakhalin, Khabarovsk and Nakhodka. The boom is driven not only by more money in the wallets of the local population but also the Far Eastern Mortgage program, with interest rates of 2% per annum – versus the 20% prevailing in the market – spurring demand.
Besides railways and ports, another important source of new income for the Far East is contract service in the army, as it is for residents of Ryazan and Voronezh regions and other Russian backwaters.
War pays
Russia’s regions are now competing in terms of enlistment bonuses: the highest-paying are Karachay-Cherkessia and Moscow Region, offering RUB 1.3 million (about $20,000) and RUB 1.7 million ($25,000), respectively, though nowhere is less than a million paid.
Still, it is not only money that motivates people to enlist: as political commentator Abbas Gallyamov notes, contracts are often signed by men who were considered good-for-nothings – by their relatives, acquaintances and sometimes even themselves. But now they are heroes, “participants in the special military operation,” “the new elite,” as Putin called them, entitled to all sorts of benefits, honor and respect. Those who are lucky enough to return alive and in one piece are given comfortable jobs with good pay.
Even if they do not come back, their families receive substantial compensation for a killed-in-action father or husband. Political commentator Vladimir Pastukhov has calculated that payments for a family member killed in action can reach RUB 14 million (EUR 140,000). This compares to the average monthly wage in Russia of approximately EUR 730 and means a family receives approximately 16 years of average wages for every member killed.
“If we take into account that now a significant part of the army is people who get paid not the average but the minimum wage, which this year is about EUR 192 [a month], then compensation in the event of their death for their families is up to 60 years of their potential income. In Russia, these people do not work that long, so the compensation covers the income of two or three generations of Russian men at once, who have finally become economically attractive to their partners. In other words, the payment immediately compensates for lost income from unborn children,” Pastukhov wrote on his Telegram channel.
Professional military men are now much better off, too. Not long ago, military salaries were, by Moscow standards, pathetic. A military career attracted only people from poor regions: sure, the salary is small, but the pay is stable; the uniform is free, they feed you, you can retire at 45, and the pension is good compared to a civilian one.
Now, not only do officers receive good money for staying in the combat zone, but they also have excellent opportunities for additional “earnings.” Before, there were quiet rumors that Prigozhin’s Wagner PMC, while recruiting convicts into its ranks, manufactured time at the front, followed by an amnesty six months later, for some inmates who could pay. These days, the trade in “special operation participant” documents has become an open secret: more and more deputies and bureaucrats are announcing that they fought in Ukraine, while even small businessmen who want to protect themselves from raiders and siloviki are getting in on it. For those who are actually in Ukraine, there is the option to pay off your commander so that he does not send you to fight on the front line but rather to, for example, unload shells in the rear.
So what? a cynic would say. What’s wrong if the poor are becoming, if not rich, then at least better off? In Russia, there has been a lot of talk for a long time about the need to reduce inequality – both across the population and across regions – which in Russia was already very high. People got what they wanted, albeit in a terrible way.
How long will there be money for war payments?
Even if we ignore the moral side of getting rich by killing other people, we still must admit that this method of reducing inequality is not only expensive (already a third of federal budget expenditures go toward the war and related payments) but also toxic.
First of all, because war is a short-term affair. The Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to last a decade, and not only because the sides hardly have enough resources for that. Judging by Putin’s rhetoric, even he is for peace – albeit on his own terms.
Almost the entire West is for ending the war, while China, apparently, is not happy about the current situation. And though predicting the end of a war is a thankless task, we can still say with reasonable confidence that we are talking about 2-3 more years at most. Everyone understands this, including those who are benefitting from the war.
Even now, many in Russia, including high-ranking officials, are asking a completely reasonable question: what will happen when those 300,000-400,000 soldiers, who are accustomed to mortal risk and good money and know how to handle weapons, come back? Of course, the authorities will probably give them benefits, perhaps some kind of regular payments or a preferential mortgage. But it is unlikely that these payments and benefits will be indexed, even to real inflation, which is still high now, while there are no factors suggesting it will come down after hostilities end.
Of course, they will be shown honor and respect and will continue to be invited to schools to speak, just like veterans of the Great Patriotic War in Soviet times. Yet during United Russia primaries for local elections, across the country special operation veterans were sunk – after all, party functionaries did not get into politics to give way to some kind of “new elite.” The candidacy of a former tractor driver who fought in the special operation had to be rammed through so he could become a Federation Council senator.
Others will not be able to live on “veteran payments” alone; they will have to work. But will there be work for those who before the war often did not have a real vocation or who during the war lost the skills they had? Besides them, there are workers at defense factories: today, they work three shifts for good wages, but what about tomorrow? Will they have to choose between keeping their job for the prewar pay of $200 a month or taking a hike?
Not everything is hunky-dory in terms of regional development, either. Yes, the current modernization of the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway, like other infrastructure projects in Siberia and the Far East, is likely to continue, as if the war ends, trade with China, which has faltered of late amid Chinese fears of secondary sanctions, will certainly pick up. Perhaps, the northwest of the country will see some relief if some sanctions are lifted – at least if the borders are open for the export and import of goods.
But how high will demand and prices be? Inflation around the world is dying down, and the end of the war may also cause prices for key Russian commodities to fall, from oil and gas to metals. For example, Kuzbas coal is already facing headwinds: China does not want to buy more; it just does not need so much. Stockpiling is a bad thing, however: production cannot just be stopped, while stockpiling means direct losses, and no expansion of the Trans-Siberian Railway or the BAM can change that.
Oddly enough, salvation from the crisis for Russian industry might be defeat in the war – at least in the form of an obligation to rebuild what was destroyed in Ukraine. Then there would be a place to sell metals, oil and gas, timber and coal. If the war ends without such an obligation and without the lifting of sanctions, then those who have greatly benefited from the war risk reverting to their starting point. But with weapons in hand and anger at the politicians who promised them everything.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/08/tat ... e-the-war/
Denis Vladimirovich: A few thoughts on modern consumer market in Russia.
August 23, 2024
By Denis Vladimirovich, Facebook, 8/7/24
The Soviet government was pretty good at developing sophisticated techs and executing grand scale projects — nuclear power plants, supersonic jets, nuclear submarines, various rockets & missiles, space stations and space shuttles, in addition to high-tech factories and general infrastructure.
They weren’t particularly good at making simple consumer goods, though. Or, rather, they were failing to satisfy the demand. Soviet people always desired foreign clothes (even those made by other Eastern Block countries), foreign sweets, foreign cigarettes, foreign cosmetics, and so on. Soviet automobiles, although relatively well made and well suited for their price category, were a frequent subject of ironic remarks.
The Soviet Union, although having high technological capacity and know-how in the high-order things, was lugging terribly in all those little things that constitute people’s everyday experiences.
In the United States, corporations and their research departments have been working tirelessly on coming up not only with the ways to fulfil the consumer demand, but also to create and control it since, like, the 1940, if not earlier. All the advances in Behavioural Science were made, in part, due to big marketing departments trying to figure out the ways to sell people things that they didn’t even know they needed.
So, in the West, having more resources, corporations were nurturing consumer culture for decades. In the Soviet Union, in contrast, they didn’t really care about those.
Under Stalin, all the down-to-earth consumer needs were being taken care of by small corporate enterprises (so-called artels) that were decentralised and, therefore, could react faster to spontaneous market fluctuations. When Krushchev came to power in the mid-1950s, he cancelled artels, seeing them as left-overs of the Capitalist system. The supply of consumer goods got compromised severely, on a systemic level. Later economic reforms, such as the one developed by Lieberman and implemented by Kosygin in the 1960s, didn’t solve the issue and only worsened it.
It became a huge Cold War factor, with Americans using it to their advantage, waging a cultural war on the Soviet Union. And it hit the hardest in the late 1980s, when the Soviet economy was going through a terminal “Perestroika” crisis. When McDonald’s first opened in Moscow in the year 1990, people were lining up for multiple kilometres, literally, wanting to experience it and perceiving it as a wonder of American superiority.
We all know how it ended for the USSR.
Russia is in another long-term confrontation with the United States and its allies at the moment. It started in a soft phase after 2007, following Putin’s Munich speech, when he criticised NATO expansion and American foreign policy. Then it intensified badly in 2013-2014, and it all went into high-gear in 2022, with large scale proxy-wars, diplomatic boycotts, and intense economic sanctions.
Well, you know, even though the modern Russian Federation is far from being the Soviet Union, in terms of demographic potential and technological capacity (relative to its time), the United States & Co do not have consumer culture superiority this time. It’s not a factor they can bet on anymore.
Russia has overabundance of high quality affordable food nowadays. You won’t impress locals with large American style supermarkets. The general service industry in Russia is arguably better than in the West. Fancy looking cafes, restaurants, and all of that — you can find them at every corner in here nowadays, even in small rural towns (and the fact that they remain in business and multiply indicates that people can afford going there frequently). An average coffee place in Russia is arguably better than a Starbucks outlet in Australia.
Also, don’t forget that Russia is geographically huge and it has virtually all natural resources one might need, so it’s next to impossible to embargo it the same way they have been doing it to smaller nations like North Korea and Cuba.
Speaking of consumer electronics, the shops are filled with Chinese Huawei and Xiaomi laptops and gadgets (I assume it’s similar in professional tech sector, with servers and network equipment; besides, Russia has its own microprocessors that are used in specialised areas nowadays). I got myself a portable 4G router here recently (out of curiosity and because it’s not always convenient to rely on my phone as a Wi-Fi hotspot) from a local mobile carrier, and the package says it was made in China.
Same with cars — BMWs and Cadillacs are not being officially serviced in Russia by manufacturers, but there are heaps of quality Chinese vehicles and mid-range domestic cars on the market.
As for social media, search engines, and whatsnot — ha! Yandex has been rivalling Google since 1997 (Russia is the only country, besides the United States, China, and South Korea, that has its own widely used search engine). VK and Telegram negate the need for Meta and X/Twitter services.
Russia has a crapload of its own streaming platforms nowadays (START, Wink, PREMIER, and so on). So, unless you want to watch Netflix or Amazon Prime exclusives, you’re very well set with Russias domestic services (Russian TV-shows have been catching up on production values in recent years; there are also lots of Korean, Chinese, and Turkish dramas to choose from).
Speaking of banks and payment systems, even though the US policy makers had cut Russia off the SWIFT system, rendering foreign Visa and Mastercard cards useless in here, Russia has its own Mir system nowadays, with vibrant banking industry, convenient ATM services, instant transfers, and banking apps that are at least a generation ahead of what people use in the West (I’m, for one, not a huge fan of strong privately owned banks and financial institutions, as a phenomenon, but that’s due to my personal political views, and I’m talking purely about customer experience side of things in this post).
YouTube is still far superior to Russian domestic alternatives, such as RUTUBE and VK Video, in terms of search, suggestion algorithms, and monetisation policies and mechanisms for content creators, yes, but they have come a long way in the last 2-3 years, and they keep improving.
So, I don’t know how the United States & Co are planning to wage propaganda war against Russia and what are they going to use to impress ordinary Russian citizens with this time. F-16 jets? Because the dominant, dominant majority of all the publications in the Western mainstream media regarding the troubles in Russian economy is a mixture of crude propaganda and mean spirited wishful thinking for domestic consumption & self-delusion.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/08/den ... in-russia/
******
YouTube traffic in Russia has decreased by 38%
August 23, 9:02 am
YouTube traffic in Russia has decreased by 38% since the service slowdown began.
It will obviously decrease even more by the end of the year, but YouTube will retain a certain audience, since it continues to operate through a VPN.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9337842.html
Where did the "annexation" in Armenian history textbooks come from?
August 24, 13:28
Who is funding the authors of the scandalous textbook on Armenian history
Recently, a scandal erupted in Armenia ( https://t.me/rybar/62536 ) over a new school history textbook, which calls the annexation of Eastern Armenia to the Russian Empire in 1828 an “annexation,” despite the liberation from Turkish and Persian influence.
Later, the Ministry of Education and Culture of Armenia announced ( https://t.me/rybar/62536 ) to media representatives that the controversial wording would be removed. However, it is unlikely that the removal of one term will dramatically change the anti-Russian nature of the textbook, which has already been approved for the school curriculum.
The instillation of Russophobia through rewriting history is common practice in the CIS countries, where Western NGOs have firmly established themselves, influencing local minds.
As it turned out ( https://t.me/m1acum/28781 ), the authors of the new textbook are associated with EU organizations and the Soros Foundation.
The grant for writing the textbook was won by the Armenian Foundation "School of Participation", which cooperates with the German organization DVV International, which receives funding ( https://www.dvv-international.de/en/wor ... ey/armenia ) from the German Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development. The latter actively spends money ( https://t.me/pezdicide/3576 ) on projects in the CIS.
The head of the Armenian Foundation "School of Participation" Vahram Soghomonyan headed the editorial board. He himself defended ( http://archumanities.am/ru/author/vahram-soghomonyan ) a dissertation in political science in Germany at Philips University, where he worked for four years in the "research group on European integration".
Soghomonyan's profile is on the page ( http://archumanities.am/ru/author/vahram-soghomonyan ) of the "Armenian Center for Humanitarian Research", which is sponsored by the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation (undesirable in the Russian Federation). The NGO is known for its active work ( https://t.me/pezdicide/3602 ) in the post-Soviet space with scientific circles. For example, this foundation actively sponsored research on the benefits of EU and NATO expansion in Ukraine.
The section on the "annexation" of Eastern Armenia by Russia was written by historian Smbat Hovhannisyan, who also authored a scandalous textbook for the 7th grade, which caused pickets by Armenian citizens. In the textbooks, Armenian geographical names are replaced ( https://t.me/rybar/56780 ) with Turkic ones.
Hovhannisyan teaches ( https://old.evnreport.com/profiles/smba ... 20lecturer. ) at Yerevan State University and also lectures at the American University of Armenia. Both universities received ( https://www.civilnet.am/en/news/383408/ ... n-armenia/) for many years, grants from Soros's Open Society, and the American University was founded by the US government.
Obviously, openly Russophobic formulations in a school textbook, which has already been approved by all commissions, could only be written by those who have been associated with Western foundations for many years. The latter do not spare financial injections into the culture and education of post-Soviet countries. As practice shows, this gives results to the beneficiaries who are fighting for their influence in regions where Russia or other players are traditionally strong.
@pezdicide - zinc
Having seized power in Armenia after the 2018 coup, Soros's henchmen have been consistently engaged in the sowing of Russophobia, simultaneously liquidating Armenian statehood. The territories already lost are not the last territories that Armenia will lose under Pashinyan.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9340263.html
Between "traditionalism" and "progressivism"
August 23, 11:19
Between "traditionalism" and "progressivism"
In today's debate between "traditionalism" and "progressivism", as fascinating and absurd as any debate about faith, the scope for political manipulation is virtually limitless.
Firstly, history and culture are not static, so any tradition exists in a process of constant change and mutual influence.
Secondly, in all traditions of all peoples there are elements of pride, as well as things that should be gotten rid of. Cannibalism and raids on neighbors were also traditions of many, if not all, of our cultures.
And finally, even pretending to be the most rootless of cosmopolitans, we, in all our views, gestures and worldview, are inevitably colored by our culture and tradition, and the more we try to fight this, the more caricatured we look. Not to mention the fact that without seeing ourselves in the mirror of our own culture, it is absolutely impossible for us to understand others. Unless, of course, we call plastic globalist trash culture. Therefore, the protection of the unity and diversity of humanity is impossible without strengthening the national identity of each of its cultures.
At the same time, with "progressivism" everything is much more complicated, because progress (even more than culture) is usually called almost anything. Especially progress in the destruction of the planet, in the decline of our level of education, in the growth of fear, despair, madness and loneliness and in the shrinking of political elites.
The current colossal technical progress in the hands of the current government, instead of solving the huge problems of humanity, creates many new ones. But the problem is not in the technologies, it is in who controls them and in whose interests. Otherwise, progress becomes synonymous with unlimited possibilities for manipulating us and controlling threats to the system.
I am sure that scientific and technical progress is absolutely necessary. It just does not make sense in a primitive society revolving around the religion of money and the collective illusion of individual salvation. It is directed into the void.
True progress is possible only from within our imperfect and self-valuable cultures and traditions that determine the vectors of life, harmony, understanding and the search for knowledge. Its meaning is in overcoming human pain and suffering. And each of the national traditions is a local school of searching for this.
Someone has long liked to talk about the war of cultures and civilizations. Today I see only one war - a world war of the maddened financial elites and corporations armed with the latest technologies against all of humanity taken hostage and divided by them, which they are trying to deprive of memory and the will to resist.
(c) Oleg Yasinsky
https://t.me/olegyasynsky - zinc
(It seems to me that by posting this article Boris attempts to straddle the conservative backlash against the west with his avowed communism.)
Tatiana Ryabkova: Will the Reduction in Inequality in Russia Survive the War?
August 22, 2024 natyliesb 1 Comment
By Tatiana Ryabkova, Russia Post, 7/26/24
Journalist Tatiana Rybakova notes that the war with Ukraine has led to a reduction of inequality in Russia and looks at whether that will continue after the war ends.
Russia’s economically depressed areas – typically where defense enterprises, agriculture and barely competitive sectors, such as light industry, are concentrated – are currently on the rise. The previously prosperous northwest of the country is declining, while Eastern Siberia and the Far East have caught a second wind.
Social shifts caused by the war
The Russian middle class, increasingly filled with officials in recent years, is now seeing more people from disadvantaged social strata, which previously seemed doomed to poverty and debt. Meanwhile, the part of the middle class that is usually called the “creative intelligentsia” is visibly struggling – besides those who are on the pro-war side. What do these shifts mean?
The Baikal–Amur Mainline (BAM) and Trans-Siberian Railway, the main railways of Eastern Siberia and Primorye (the territory along the Sea of Japan), are overwhelmed. They have become the main routes for transporting goods to China and Far Eastern ports, from where they are sent to India and other countries. Wage gains in logistics have outpaced all other sectors, including IT. Not long ago, it was people working in transportation at the other end of the country, in the Northwestern Federal District, who made good money; today, however, the Baltic ports, customs terminals and railways are empty: practically no freight flows to or from Europe – the borders are closed.
Where there is freight, there is money. The closure of the northwestern borders was a big hit to the region’s timber industry, which had been the biggest in the country. It is too expensive to transport timber across the country to China, and besides, the Siberian taiga has its own lumberjacks and sawmills. Moreover, China has its own pulp and paper mills, several of which are located right on the border with Russia, while the inputs are provided by long-trusted local suppliers. Industry officials say that it is economically feasible for these mills to transport raw materials from no more than a thousand kilometers away.
Timber is not the only industry on the border with Europe that has suffered, as the entire region lived on trade with Russia’s neighbors. In particular, raw materials and components were actually cheaper for a local enterprise to bring over from the neighboring Baltic countries or Finland. Petersburgers, citing better quality and price, even went to Finland for their weekly groceries.
Now, Russia’s Far East is invigorated. For example, the largest construction companies in Russia have rushed in to build new residential complexes in Vladivostok, Sakhalin, Khabarovsk and Nakhodka. The boom is driven not only by more money in the wallets of the local population but also the Far Eastern Mortgage program, with interest rates of 2% per annum – versus the 20% prevailing in the market – spurring demand.
Besides railways and ports, another important source of new income for the Far East is contract service in the army, as it is for residents of Ryazan and Voronezh regions and other Russian backwaters.
War pays
Russia’s regions are now competing in terms of enlistment bonuses: the highest-paying are Karachay-Cherkessia and Moscow Region, offering RUB 1.3 million (about $20,000) and RUB 1.7 million ($25,000), respectively, though nowhere is less than a million paid.
Still, it is not only money that motivates people to enlist: as political commentator Abbas Gallyamov notes, contracts are often signed by men who were considered good-for-nothings – by their relatives, acquaintances and sometimes even themselves. But now they are heroes, “participants in the special military operation,” “the new elite,” as Putin called them, entitled to all sorts of benefits, honor and respect. Those who are lucky enough to return alive and in one piece are given comfortable jobs with good pay.
Even if they do not come back, their families receive substantial compensation for a killed-in-action father or husband. Political commentator Vladimir Pastukhov has calculated that payments for a family member killed in action can reach RUB 14 million (EUR 140,000). This compares to the average monthly wage in Russia of approximately EUR 730 and means a family receives approximately 16 years of average wages for every member killed.
“If we take into account that now a significant part of the army is people who get paid not the average but the minimum wage, which this year is about EUR 192 [a month], then compensation in the event of their death for their families is up to 60 years of their potential income. In Russia, these people do not work that long, so the compensation covers the income of two or three generations of Russian men at once, who have finally become economically attractive to their partners. In other words, the payment immediately compensates for lost income from unborn children,” Pastukhov wrote on his Telegram channel.
Professional military men are now much better off, too. Not long ago, military salaries were, by Moscow standards, pathetic. A military career attracted only people from poor regions: sure, the salary is small, but the pay is stable; the uniform is free, they feed you, you can retire at 45, and the pension is good compared to a civilian one.
Now, not only do officers receive good money for staying in the combat zone, but they also have excellent opportunities for additional “earnings.” Before, there were quiet rumors that Prigozhin’s Wagner PMC, while recruiting convicts into its ranks, manufactured time at the front, followed by an amnesty six months later, for some inmates who could pay. These days, the trade in “special operation participant” documents has become an open secret: more and more deputies and bureaucrats are announcing that they fought in Ukraine, while even small businessmen who want to protect themselves from raiders and siloviki are getting in on it. For those who are actually in Ukraine, there is the option to pay off your commander so that he does not send you to fight on the front line but rather to, for example, unload shells in the rear.
So what? a cynic would say. What’s wrong if the poor are becoming, if not rich, then at least better off? In Russia, there has been a lot of talk for a long time about the need to reduce inequality – both across the population and across regions – which in Russia was already very high. People got what they wanted, albeit in a terrible way.
How long will there be money for war payments?
Even if we ignore the moral side of getting rich by killing other people, we still must admit that this method of reducing inequality is not only expensive (already a third of federal budget expenditures go toward the war and related payments) but also toxic.
First of all, because war is a short-term affair. The Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to last a decade, and not only because the sides hardly have enough resources for that. Judging by Putin’s rhetoric, even he is for peace – albeit on his own terms.
Almost the entire West is for ending the war, while China, apparently, is not happy about the current situation. And though predicting the end of a war is a thankless task, we can still say with reasonable confidence that we are talking about 2-3 more years at most. Everyone understands this, including those who are benefitting from the war.
Even now, many in Russia, including high-ranking officials, are asking a completely reasonable question: what will happen when those 300,000-400,000 soldiers, who are accustomed to mortal risk and good money and know how to handle weapons, come back? Of course, the authorities will probably give them benefits, perhaps some kind of regular payments or a preferential mortgage. But it is unlikely that these payments and benefits will be indexed, even to real inflation, which is still high now, while there are no factors suggesting it will come down after hostilities end.
Of course, they will be shown honor and respect and will continue to be invited to schools to speak, just like veterans of the Great Patriotic War in Soviet times. Yet during United Russia primaries for local elections, across the country special operation veterans were sunk – after all, party functionaries did not get into politics to give way to some kind of “new elite.” The candidacy of a former tractor driver who fought in the special operation had to be rammed through so he could become a Federation Council senator.
Others will not be able to live on “veteran payments” alone; they will have to work. But will there be work for those who before the war often did not have a real vocation or who during the war lost the skills they had? Besides them, there are workers at defense factories: today, they work three shifts for good wages, but what about tomorrow? Will they have to choose between keeping their job for the prewar pay of $200 a month or taking a hike?
Not everything is hunky-dory in terms of regional development, either. Yes, the current modernization of the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway, like other infrastructure projects in Siberia and the Far East, is likely to continue, as if the war ends, trade with China, which has faltered of late amid Chinese fears of secondary sanctions, will certainly pick up. Perhaps, the northwest of the country will see some relief if some sanctions are lifted – at least if the borders are open for the export and import of goods.
But how high will demand and prices be? Inflation around the world is dying down, and the end of the war may also cause prices for key Russian commodities to fall, from oil and gas to metals. For example, Kuzbas coal is already facing headwinds: China does not want to buy more; it just does not need so much. Stockpiling is a bad thing, however: production cannot just be stopped, while stockpiling means direct losses, and no expansion of the Trans-Siberian Railway or the BAM can change that.
Oddly enough, salvation from the crisis for Russian industry might be defeat in the war – at least in the form of an obligation to rebuild what was destroyed in Ukraine. Then there would be a place to sell metals, oil and gas, timber and coal. If the war ends without such an obligation and without the lifting of sanctions, then those who have greatly benefited from the war risk reverting to their starting point. But with weapons in hand and anger at the politicians who promised them everything.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/08/tat ... e-the-war/
Denis Vladimirovich: A few thoughts on modern consumer market in Russia.
August 23, 2024
By Denis Vladimirovich, Facebook, 8/7/24
The Soviet government was pretty good at developing sophisticated techs and executing grand scale projects — nuclear power plants, supersonic jets, nuclear submarines, various rockets & missiles, space stations and space shuttles, in addition to high-tech factories and general infrastructure.
They weren’t particularly good at making simple consumer goods, though. Or, rather, they were failing to satisfy the demand. Soviet people always desired foreign clothes (even those made by other Eastern Block countries), foreign sweets, foreign cigarettes, foreign cosmetics, and so on. Soviet automobiles, although relatively well made and well suited for their price category, were a frequent subject of ironic remarks.
The Soviet Union, although having high technological capacity and know-how in the high-order things, was lugging terribly in all those little things that constitute people’s everyday experiences.
In the United States, corporations and their research departments have been working tirelessly on coming up not only with the ways to fulfil the consumer demand, but also to create and control it since, like, the 1940, if not earlier. All the advances in Behavioural Science were made, in part, due to big marketing departments trying to figure out the ways to sell people things that they didn’t even know they needed.
So, in the West, having more resources, corporations were nurturing consumer culture for decades. In the Soviet Union, in contrast, they didn’t really care about those.
Under Stalin, all the down-to-earth consumer needs were being taken care of by small corporate enterprises (so-called artels) that were decentralised and, therefore, could react faster to spontaneous market fluctuations. When Krushchev came to power in the mid-1950s, he cancelled artels, seeing them as left-overs of the Capitalist system. The supply of consumer goods got compromised severely, on a systemic level. Later economic reforms, such as the one developed by Lieberman and implemented by Kosygin in the 1960s, didn’t solve the issue and only worsened it.
It became a huge Cold War factor, with Americans using it to their advantage, waging a cultural war on the Soviet Union. And it hit the hardest in the late 1980s, when the Soviet economy was going through a terminal “Perestroika” crisis. When McDonald’s first opened in Moscow in the year 1990, people were lining up for multiple kilometres, literally, wanting to experience it and perceiving it as a wonder of American superiority.
We all know how it ended for the USSR.
Russia is in another long-term confrontation with the United States and its allies at the moment. It started in a soft phase after 2007, following Putin’s Munich speech, when he criticised NATO expansion and American foreign policy. Then it intensified badly in 2013-2014, and it all went into high-gear in 2022, with large scale proxy-wars, diplomatic boycotts, and intense economic sanctions.
Well, you know, even though the modern Russian Federation is far from being the Soviet Union, in terms of demographic potential and technological capacity (relative to its time), the United States & Co do not have consumer culture superiority this time. It’s not a factor they can bet on anymore.
Russia has overabundance of high quality affordable food nowadays. You won’t impress locals with large American style supermarkets. The general service industry in Russia is arguably better than in the West. Fancy looking cafes, restaurants, and all of that — you can find them at every corner in here nowadays, even in small rural towns (and the fact that they remain in business and multiply indicates that people can afford going there frequently). An average coffee place in Russia is arguably better than a Starbucks outlet in Australia.
Also, don’t forget that Russia is geographically huge and it has virtually all natural resources one might need, so it’s next to impossible to embargo it the same way they have been doing it to smaller nations like North Korea and Cuba.
Speaking of consumer electronics, the shops are filled with Chinese Huawei and Xiaomi laptops and gadgets (I assume it’s similar in professional tech sector, with servers and network equipment; besides, Russia has its own microprocessors that are used in specialised areas nowadays). I got myself a portable 4G router here recently (out of curiosity and because it’s not always convenient to rely on my phone as a Wi-Fi hotspot) from a local mobile carrier, and the package says it was made in China.
Same with cars — BMWs and Cadillacs are not being officially serviced in Russia by manufacturers, but there are heaps of quality Chinese vehicles and mid-range domestic cars on the market.
As for social media, search engines, and whatsnot — ha! Yandex has been rivalling Google since 1997 (Russia is the only country, besides the United States, China, and South Korea, that has its own widely used search engine). VK and Telegram negate the need for Meta and X/Twitter services.
Russia has a crapload of its own streaming platforms nowadays (START, Wink, PREMIER, and so on). So, unless you want to watch Netflix or Amazon Prime exclusives, you’re very well set with Russias domestic services (Russian TV-shows have been catching up on production values in recent years; there are also lots of Korean, Chinese, and Turkish dramas to choose from).
Speaking of banks and payment systems, even though the US policy makers had cut Russia off the SWIFT system, rendering foreign Visa and Mastercard cards useless in here, Russia has its own Mir system nowadays, with vibrant banking industry, convenient ATM services, instant transfers, and banking apps that are at least a generation ahead of what people use in the West (I’m, for one, not a huge fan of strong privately owned banks and financial institutions, as a phenomenon, but that’s due to my personal political views, and I’m talking purely about customer experience side of things in this post).
YouTube is still far superior to Russian domestic alternatives, such as RUTUBE and VK Video, in terms of search, suggestion algorithms, and monetisation policies and mechanisms for content creators, yes, but they have come a long way in the last 2-3 years, and they keep improving.
So, I don’t know how the United States & Co are planning to wage propaganda war against Russia and what are they going to use to impress ordinary Russian citizens with this time. F-16 jets? Because the dominant, dominant majority of all the publications in the Western mainstream media regarding the troubles in Russian economy is a mixture of crude propaganda and mean spirited wishful thinking for domestic consumption & self-delusion.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/08/den ... in-russia/
******
YouTube traffic in Russia has decreased by 38%
August 23, 9:02 am
YouTube traffic in Russia has decreased by 38% since the service slowdown began.
It will obviously decrease even more by the end of the year, but YouTube will retain a certain audience, since it continues to operate through a VPN.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9337842.html
Where did the "annexation" in Armenian history textbooks come from?
August 24, 13:28
Who is funding the authors of the scandalous textbook on Armenian history
Recently, a scandal erupted in Armenia ( https://t.me/rybar/62536 ) over a new school history textbook, which calls the annexation of Eastern Armenia to the Russian Empire in 1828 an “annexation,” despite the liberation from Turkish and Persian influence.
Later, the Ministry of Education and Culture of Armenia announced ( https://t.me/rybar/62536 ) to media representatives that the controversial wording would be removed. However, it is unlikely that the removal of one term will dramatically change the anti-Russian nature of the textbook, which has already been approved for the school curriculum.
The instillation of Russophobia through rewriting history is common practice in the CIS countries, where Western NGOs have firmly established themselves, influencing local minds.
As it turned out ( https://t.me/m1acum/28781 ), the authors of the new textbook are associated with EU organizations and the Soros Foundation.
The grant for writing the textbook was won by the Armenian Foundation "School of Participation", which cooperates with the German organization DVV International, which receives funding ( https://www.dvv-international.de/en/wor ... ey/armenia ) from the German Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development. The latter actively spends money ( https://t.me/pezdicide/3576 ) on projects in the CIS.
The head of the Armenian Foundation "School of Participation" Vahram Soghomonyan headed the editorial board. He himself defended ( http://archumanities.am/ru/author/vahram-soghomonyan ) a dissertation in political science in Germany at Philips University, where he worked for four years in the "research group on European integration".
Soghomonyan's profile is on the page ( http://archumanities.am/ru/author/vahram-soghomonyan ) of the "Armenian Center for Humanitarian Research", which is sponsored by the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation (undesirable in the Russian Federation). The NGO is known for its active work ( https://t.me/pezdicide/3602 ) in the post-Soviet space with scientific circles. For example, this foundation actively sponsored research on the benefits of EU and NATO expansion in Ukraine.
The section on the "annexation" of Eastern Armenia by Russia was written by historian Smbat Hovhannisyan, who also authored a scandalous textbook for the 7th grade, which caused pickets by Armenian citizens. In the textbooks, Armenian geographical names are replaced ( https://t.me/rybar/56780 ) with Turkic ones.
Hovhannisyan teaches ( https://old.evnreport.com/profiles/smba ... 20lecturer. ) at Yerevan State University and also lectures at the American University of Armenia. Both universities received ( https://www.civilnet.am/en/news/383408/ ... n-armenia/) for many years, grants from Soros's Open Society, and the American University was founded by the US government.
Obviously, openly Russophobic formulations in a school textbook, which has already been approved by all commissions, could only be written by those who have been associated with Western foundations for many years. The latter do not spare financial injections into the culture and education of post-Soviet countries. As practice shows, this gives results to the beneficiaries who are fighting for their influence in regions where Russia or other players are traditionally strong.
@pezdicide - zinc
Having seized power in Armenia after the 2018 coup, Soros's henchmen have been consistently engaged in the sowing of Russophobia, simultaneously liquidating Armenian statehood. The territories already lost are not the last territories that Armenia will lose under Pashinyan.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9340263.html
Between "traditionalism" and "progressivism"
August 23, 11:19
Between "traditionalism" and "progressivism"
In today's debate between "traditionalism" and "progressivism", as fascinating and absurd as any debate about faith, the scope for political manipulation is virtually limitless.
Firstly, history and culture are not static, so any tradition exists in a process of constant change and mutual influence.
Secondly, in all traditions of all peoples there are elements of pride, as well as things that should be gotten rid of. Cannibalism and raids on neighbors were also traditions of many, if not all, of our cultures.
And finally, even pretending to be the most rootless of cosmopolitans, we, in all our views, gestures and worldview, are inevitably colored by our culture and tradition, and the more we try to fight this, the more caricatured we look. Not to mention the fact that without seeing ourselves in the mirror of our own culture, it is absolutely impossible for us to understand others. Unless, of course, we call plastic globalist trash culture. Therefore, the protection of the unity and diversity of humanity is impossible without strengthening the national identity of each of its cultures.
At the same time, with "progressivism" everything is much more complicated, because progress (even more than culture) is usually called almost anything. Especially progress in the destruction of the planet, in the decline of our level of education, in the growth of fear, despair, madness and loneliness and in the shrinking of political elites.
The current colossal technical progress in the hands of the current government, instead of solving the huge problems of humanity, creates many new ones. But the problem is not in the technologies, it is in who controls them and in whose interests. Otherwise, progress becomes synonymous with unlimited possibilities for manipulating us and controlling threats to the system.
I am sure that scientific and technical progress is absolutely necessary. It just does not make sense in a primitive society revolving around the religion of money and the collective illusion of individual salvation. It is directed into the void.
True progress is possible only from within our imperfect and self-valuable cultures and traditions that determine the vectors of life, harmony, understanding and the search for knowledge. Its meaning is in overcoming human pain and suffering. And each of the national traditions is a local school of searching for this.
Someone has long liked to talk about the war of cultures and civilizations. Today I see only one war - a world war of the maddened financial elites and corporations armed with the latest technologies against all of humanity taken hostage and divided by them, which they are trying to deprive of memory and the will to resist.
(c) Oleg Yasinsky
https://t.me/olegyasynsky - zinc
(It seems to me that by posting this article Boris attempts to straddle the conservative backlash against the west with his avowed communism.)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
About Durov's arrest
August 25, 10:33
On the arrest of Durov.
1. There is no freedom of speech on the Internet. There are only varying degrees of unfreedom.
Those who believe in freedom of speech and opinion on the Internet are driven to it by governments one way or another. To some verbally, to others in more painful ways.
2. There will be no single global network in the future - the world will move towards fragmentation and protectionism in its individual segments. The idea of a single global network died along with globalism.
3. Sitting out the collapse of the current world order in the style of, it doesn't concern me, I'm a citizen of the world - will not work. As they said in an old Soviet film - "There are two classes - the proletariat and the bourgeoisie. And if you are not for one of them, then for the other." The same applies to the holders of individual segments of the network. Playing the "third party" will not work.
4. No norms of international law, chatter about freedom of speech and opinion, and even appeals to the size of capital will protect anyone from anything if one of the forming blocs decides to destroy/imprison/take control of one of those who believe in it. There is political expediency and the possibility of unbridled violence and coercion - a pathetic fig leaf of "human rights" or a fat bank account - are not a guarantee of anything.
5. At the moment, we live in a world where the ideas of George Orwell have completely triumphed.
So to speak, I looked into tomorrow.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9342141.html
Mutually sustainable cooperation
August 25, 16:28
Mutually sustainable cooperation
Let's briefly recall: in 2017, Telegram was blocked (they tried to block it) for failure to comply with the Yarovaya Law, which requires storing correspondence on servers located in Russia and providing the FSB with access to this correspondence upon request.
In 2020, the US authorities torpedoed the TON project in its original form, which led to the need to return investments in the amount of $ 600 million. The company was on the verge of bankruptcy, the public was mentally preparing for the death of the project.
And in the same 2020, literally within a couple of weeks, everything changed: the blocking in Russia was unexpectedly lifted, and soon money was found to pay off the debts. Things went uphill, Telegram became the de facto official messenger in Russia, including in government agencies.
We will not say whether these two events are connected, but against the background of rumors about large Russian investors in the second iteration of TON, we will be surprised if at least one special service (the one where our president worked) did not receive access to correspondence in TG in connection with them.
We will also be surprised if American special services do not have access either. Telegram has its own servers located in different parts of the world, but routing is carried out through the services of Amazon, Cloudflare, Google. It was thanks to their capabilities for the endless generation of IP addresses that Telegram successfully resisted blocking in Russia.
As you understand, this method is also suitable for the opposite, for effective blocking, so the United States from the very beginning of Telegram's existence had all the levers to gain access to any correspondence in it, and it is naive to think that they do not use them.
This post is not about the fate of Pavel Durov, but about the fate of Telegram. A successful startup very rarely remains under the control of its author. On the contrary, as soon as a project gains momentum and begins to really influence something, its creator is pushed away from the helm one way or another: either kicked out by a morning decision of the board of directors, or left in the role of a wedding general and media facade.
We think that in relation to Telegram, this happened in 2020, when Durov fully or partially transferred control of the company to a group of Russian investors in exchange for cash injections and unblocking the service in our country.
But why did the French attack Durov? Let's assume that the EU is trying to get at least some opportunities to control social networks through them: they currently have none due to the lack of their own social networks. Hence the friction with Twitter, and the most stuffy European legislation on the responsibility of platforms for content, which is aimed at everyone, and not just Telegram.
In short, Mr. Gendarme wants to have the same opportunities as Comrade Major and his CIA colleagues: without warrants, without noise and dust, in the order of mutually respectful cooperation, to gain access to any correspondence.
https://t.me/vatfor/9508 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9342747.html
Medvedev on Durov's arrest
August 25, 12:17
Medvedev on Durov's arrest
Once, quite a long time ago, I asked Durov why he did not want to cooperate with law enforcement agencies on serious crimes. “This is my principled position,” he said. “Then there will be serious problems in any country,” I told him.
He thought that his biggest problems were in Russia, and he left, then also receiving citizenship / residence permits in other countries. He wanted to be a brilliant “man of the world” who lives well without a homeland. Ubi bene ibi patria!
He miscalculated. For all our now common enemies, he is Russian - and therefore unpredictable and dangerous. Of a different blood. Certainly not Musk or Zuckerberg (by the way, actively cooperating with the FBI). Durov needs to finally understand that the Fatherland, like the times, is not chosen ... (c) Medvedev
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9342417.html
Google Translator
August 25, 10:33
On the arrest of Durov.
1. There is no freedom of speech on the Internet. There are only varying degrees of unfreedom.
Those who believe in freedom of speech and opinion on the Internet are driven to it by governments one way or another. To some verbally, to others in more painful ways.
2. There will be no single global network in the future - the world will move towards fragmentation and protectionism in its individual segments. The idea of a single global network died along with globalism.
3. Sitting out the collapse of the current world order in the style of, it doesn't concern me, I'm a citizen of the world - will not work. As they said in an old Soviet film - "There are two classes - the proletariat and the bourgeoisie. And if you are not for one of them, then for the other." The same applies to the holders of individual segments of the network. Playing the "third party" will not work.
4. No norms of international law, chatter about freedom of speech and opinion, and even appeals to the size of capital will protect anyone from anything if one of the forming blocs decides to destroy/imprison/take control of one of those who believe in it. There is political expediency and the possibility of unbridled violence and coercion - a pathetic fig leaf of "human rights" or a fat bank account - are not a guarantee of anything.
5. At the moment, we live in a world where the ideas of George Orwell have completely triumphed.
So to speak, I looked into tomorrow.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9342141.html
Mutually sustainable cooperation
August 25, 16:28
Mutually sustainable cooperation
Let's briefly recall: in 2017, Telegram was blocked (they tried to block it) for failure to comply with the Yarovaya Law, which requires storing correspondence on servers located in Russia and providing the FSB with access to this correspondence upon request.
In 2020, the US authorities torpedoed the TON project in its original form, which led to the need to return investments in the amount of $ 600 million. The company was on the verge of bankruptcy, the public was mentally preparing for the death of the project.
And in the same 2020, literally within a couple of weeks, everything changed: the blocking in Russia was unexpectedly lifted, and soon money was found to pay off the debts. Things went uphill, Telegram became the de facto official messenger in Russia, including in government agencies.
We will not say whether these two events are connected, but against the background of rumors about large Russian investors in the second iteration of TON, we will be surprised if at least one special service (the one where our president worked) did not receive access to correspondence in TG in connection with them.
We will also be surprised if American special services do not have access either. Telegram has its own servers located in different parts of the world, but routing is carried out through the services of Amazon, Cloudflare, Google. It was thanks to their capabilities for the endless generation of IP addresses that Telegram successfully resisted blocking in Russia.
As you understand, this method is also suitable for the opposite, for effective blocking, so the United States from the very beginning of Telegram's existence had all the levers to gain access to any correspondence in it, and it is naive to think that they do not use them.
This post is not about the fate of Pavel Durov, but about the fate of Telegram. A successful startup very rarely remains under the control of its author. On the contrary, as soon as a project gains momentum and begins to really influence something, its creator is pushed away from the helm one way or another: either kicked out by a morning decision of the board of directors, or left in the role of a wedding general and media facade.
We think that in relation to Telegram, this happened in 2020, when Durov fully or partially transferred control of the company to a group of Russian investors in exchange for cash injections and unblocking the service in our country.
But why did the French attack Durov? Let's assume that the EU is trying to get at least some opportunities to control social networks through them: they currently have none due to the lack of their own social networks. Hence the friction with Twitter, and the most stuffy European legislation on the responsibility of platforms for content, which is aimed at everyone, and not just Telegram.
In short, Mr. Gendarme wants to have the same opportunities as Comrade Major and his CIA colleagues: without warrants, without noise and dust, in the order of mutually respectful cooperation, to gain access to any correspondence.
https://t.me/vatfor/9508 - zinc
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9342747.html
Medvedev on Durov's arrest
August 25, 12:17
Medvedev on Durov's arrest
Once, quite a long time ago, I asked Durov why he did not want to cooperate with law enforcement agencies on serious crimes. “This is my principled position,” he said. “Then there will be serious problems in any country,” I told him.
He thought that his biggest problems were in Russia, and he left, then also receiving citizenship / residence permits in other countries. He wanted to be a brilliant “man of the world” who lives well without a homeland. Ubi bene ibi patria!
He miscalculated. For all our now common enemies, he is Russian - and therefore unpredictable and dangerous. Of a different blood. Certainly not Musk or Zuckerberg (by the way, actively cooperating with the FBI). Durov needs to finally understand that the Fatherland, like the times, is not chosen ... (c) Medvedev
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9342417.html
Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."
Re: Russia today
Sir, give me the keys.
August 26, 10:56
Durov's arrest was extended for another 48 hours.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9344067.html
Memory Pill
August 26, 4:09 p.m
A memory pill.
For those who asked why I was being ironic about what was happening instead of wringing my hands.
And here is another clear example of how having a lot of money is not a sign of great intelligence.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9345016.html
Google Translator
******
Why US Belligerence Towards Russia Is Likely to Continue No Matter Who Is President
Posted on August 26, 2024 by Conor Gallagher
While all indications are that the US, regardless of who the next president is, will continue to support Israel’s rampage through the Middle East, as well as more confrontation with China, less sure is the direction that Russia policy will take.
We’re now getting a lot of pieces about the new and improved foreign policy team coming in should Kamala win the presidency. Philip Gordon, the odds-on favorite to replace Jake Sullivan as National Security Advisor, is supposed to be a pragmatist who understands the “limits of American power.”
Gordon and deputy national security advisor to the vice president, Rebecca Lissner, have a vision for a “humbler approach to foreign policy.” Yes they’re Blob neocons, but they’re the more responsible type, we’re told. I wrote last week about Gordon and reasons to doubt the puff pieces about his more reasonable approach, but wanted to expand on that here.
That’s because implicit in these articles championing Kamala’s potential foreign policy team is the idea that the reason that the world is in such disarray and the US is at risk of direct confrontation with Russia is because of Joe Biden. Economist Philip Pilkington on his always-interesting podcast Multipolarity recently took up this argument making the case that Biden, due primarily to his senility, failed to keep the Blob crazies on a leash; instead Biden let them loose allowing Ukraine to spiral out of control.
While Biden is no doubt a senile, angry old man, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken is quite stupid, are there reasons to believe that their exits will lead to a less belligerent foreign policy?
While some sort of detente with Russia would certainly be welcome, here are three reasons it is unlikely.
1. We need to remember that the puff pieces about smarter Democrat foreign policy advisers are a genre at this point. The same type of things being said about Gordon and Lissner were being written about Biden’s team four years ago. Sullivan, for example, was supposedly wary of foreign adventures and believed that “the strength of U.S. foreign policy and national security lies primarily in a thriving American middle class.”
He was lauded for visiting 112 countries with Hillary Clinton. And what was his focus going to be in the Biden White House? According to Politico, the Covid-19 pandemic:
The “major focus” of the Biden NSC’s work, at least initially, will be on beating the coronavirus pandemic and restructuring the NSC to make public health a permanent national security priority, Sullivan said.
So all these pieces about the foreign policy brain geniuses on Kamala’s team really mean nothing. These people do very little deciding on priorities or policy. So who does?
2. American plutocrats have wanted to return to the pre-Bolshevik days for more than 100 years. The goal to plunder Russia briefly became a reality upon the breakup of the USSR. In the 1990s, The US’ best and brightest sucked hundreds of billions of dollars out of the country with devastating results. The number of Russians living in poverty jumped from two million to sixty million in just a few years, and life expectancy plummeted. It made the Great Depression in the US look comparatively like a walk in the park. Putin put an end to this national catastrophe inflicted upon the country by the West, and they never forgave him for it. Why is the US and company so dead set on removing Putin and theoretically getting someone more “friendly” in power? Here are the leading countries based on natural resource value as of 2021(in trillions of dollars):
Source: Statista
In the eyes of American plutocrats, Russia is too valuable a prize, and they have now backed themselves into a corner by helping drive Moscow and Beijing together. If the thought of Russia controlling its own resources was intolerable, China having privileged access is unfathomable. The anti-Putin policies have been pumped out of corporate-financier think tanks in the US for two decades. Both of Kamala’s foreign policy brain geniuses, Gordon and Lissner, for example. have had stints at the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR). CFR’s funders, according to Influence Watch, include Accenture, Apple, Bank of America, BlackRock, Chevron, Cisco, Citi, ExxonMobil, Goldman Sachs, Google, Hess, Meta, JP Morgan Chase, Moody’s, and Morgan Stanley.
It also has corporate affiliations with Bayer, Blackstone, Bloomberg Philanthropies, Dell, Eni, KPMG, Mastercard, McKinsey and Company, PayPal, Sequoia Capital, Veritas Capital Fund Management, and others in its President’s Club program. CFR’s corporate affiliates include American International Group, Booz Allen Hamilton, FedEx, Johnson and Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Merck, Microsoft, Pfizer, TikTok, Twitter, United Airlines, and Wells Fargo.
Think tanks like CFR then steer legislation and foreign policy.
The RAND Corporation, which shares many of the same benefactors as CFR, laid out a plan to weaken Russia and topple Putin in its infamous 2019 paper, “Extending Russia.” It involved economic pressure, as well as starting conflagrations all around Russia — in Ukraine, the Caucasus, and in Central Asia. RAND’s blueprint has largely been followed — more successful in some areas than others.
And while it’s not mentioned in the RAND report, who’s to say the US won’t try to lead Europe or a portion of it (the Baltics, Poland, Germany?) from behind into more of a direct confrontation with Russia (as long as the US could wiggle out of Article 5 commitments)? Sure, it would be a disaster for any and all of them, but does the US care if the goal is to force Moscow to keep putting out fires?
The key question is do US plutocrats view their fight against Russia as existential? Judging by the RAND paper, they likely prefer a world on fire rather than accepting that they must live in a multipolar world. As the RAND report shows, there exists a clear line of thought in the Blob that overextending Russia by upping the chaos all around it will destabilize the country and bring about the downfall of Putin. The opposite has happened so far, but that doesn’t seem to matter.
As I pointed out in a recent piece examining Philip Gordon’s career, a major aspect that supposedly makes him smarter than those on the Biden team is that he’s more in line with Obama and believes in limits of America’s power. But when you really look at what they’re talking about, it’s not that they want to give up on regime change in Russia; it’s that they want to make sure the US isn’t getting too involved, that it isn’t Americans dying in a direct confrontation. One of the things they hung their hat during the Obama years was “leading from behind.” Is that not what the US is doing now? No direct confrontation with Russia, Ukrainians and mercenaries doing the dying, and working on setting the Caucasus on fire via Armenia. The flavor of the month is that the US is a responsible actor that might desire a “reset” with Russia at some point while it’s now the UK leading the escalation charge. France was recently the most gung-ho with Macron calling for troops. The Baltic states are always crazy. The US has largely been enacting the RAND plan while adhering to Obama’s lead-from-behind credo. To the last Ukrainian, as they say.
Speaking of Obama, he’s given credit for being “smarter” about Ukraine. That’s because he uttered some true words back in 2016:
“The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-nato country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do.”
What Obama was arguing was that the US should not go to war directly. But in the same interview with Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic he also echoed the RAND strategy, arguing that the US was successfully overextending Russia:
“Putin acted in Ukraine in response to a client state that was about to slip out of his grasp. And he improvised in a way to hang on to his control there,” he said. “He’s done the exact same thing in Syria, at enormous cost to the well-being of his own country. And the notion that somehow Russia is in a stronger position now, in Syria or in Ukraine, than they were before they invaded Ukraine or before he had to deploy military forces to Syria is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of power in foreign affairs or in the world generally. Real power means you can get what you want without having to exert violence. Russia was much more powerful when Ukraine looked like an independent country but was a kleptocracy that he could pull the strings on.”
Obama also oversaw the 2014 coup in Ukraine as the Blob was likely working from the same script the whole time. It just so happened that Russia started its special military operation while Biden was president rather than Obama. The Blob was able to continue its efforts to bring about a Ukraine-Russia conflict in the interim under Trump despite the freakout over Russiagate. What indication is there that Trump would be able and willing to take these forces on should he become president again?
So is there any reason to believe whatsoever that the plutocrats funding the DC think tanks and fueling this new Cold War strategy are going to rethink the plan because Ukraine is defeated on the battlefield and a new administration takes over in Washington?
Or is it more likely that the US will continue trying to destabilize regions all around Russia? Is it more likely that the US will accept defeat in Ukraine or try to ensure that Ukraine remains a steaming pile of rubble that Russia must commit men and money towards pacifying Ukraine? Recently the Duran’s Alexander Mercouris and Alexander Christoforou were talking about the possibility that Zelensky will be replaced with the former Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Arsen Avakov, because he’s someone who could effectively keep up a terror campaign in a failed state due to his close ties with neo-Nazi groups and his penchant for collecting damaging information on people.
3. Was it just the fact that Democrats were apparently too lazy to update their platform in several areas, including on Russia, or are they trying to tell us something when the Kamala platform reads:
President Biden will never turn his back on our allies. In his second term, he will continue to strengthen NATO and stand with Ukraine to stop Putin’s atrocities and constrain Russia’s threat to allied nations and America’s vital interests.
If there was any doubt, here’s Harris in her nomination acceptance speech:
And that we strengthen—not abdicate—our global leadership. Trump, on the other hand, threatened to abandon NATO. He encouraged Putin to invade our allies. Said Russia could—quote—“do whatever the hell they want.” Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, I met with President Zelensky to warn him about Russia’s plan to invade. I helped mobilize a global response — over 50 countries — to defend against Putin’s aggression. And as President, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.
Meanwhile the oligarch-funded think tanks keep pumping out material arguing for an open ended Cold War with Russia. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that advocates for a sustained strategy of “containment.” Gordon co-authored a Council on Foreign Relations report with the Russia hardliner Republican Robert Blackwill. They called for the kitchen sink to be thrown at Russia, including sanctions, weapons, an undying commitment to Ukraine and Europe — basically what the US has done since.
While Kamala and the Democrats might not be the ones setting the agenda, they are letting the US oligarchs know that they will adhere to their agenda and continue the Russia policy, which could be a decades-long effort. The think tanks are saying this, that the new Cold War is here to stay. Maybe Gordon and Kamala’s Obama-esque team is more crafty and takes a step back to regroup but policy will not change. It could potentially get even worse, as a new emphasis on leading from behind could help remove the US from the plan’s consequences.
For now, the narrative works out well. Biden can be blamed for Ukraine’s defeat and the new and improved Kamala team can arrive to enact a smarter policy that’s pretty much the same as the old dumb policy. I would love to be wrong.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/08 ... ident.html
August 26, 10:56
Durov's arrest was extended for another 48 hours.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9344067.html
Memory Pill
August 26, 4:09 p.m
A memory pill.
For those who asked why I was being ironic about what was happening instead of wringing my hands.
And here is another clear example of how having a lot of money is not a sign of great intelligence.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9345016.html
Google Translator
******
Why US Belligerence Towards Russia Is Likely to Continue No Matter Who Is President
Posted on August 26, 2024 by Conor Gallagher
While all indications are that the US, regardless of who the next president is, will continue to support Israel’s rampage through the Middle East, as well as more confrontation with China, less sure is the direction that Russia policy will take.
We’re now getting a lot of pieces about the new and improved foreign policy team coming in should Kamala win the presidency. Philip Gordon, the odds-on favorite to replace Jake Sullivan as National Security Advisor, is supposed to be a pragmatist who understands the “limits of American power.”
Gordon and deputy national security advisor to the vice president, Rebecca Lissner, have a vision for a “humbler approach to foreign policy.” Yes they’re Blob neocons, but they’re the more responsible type, we’re told. I wrote last week about Gordon and reasons to doubt the puff pieces about his more reasonable approach, but wanted to expand on that here.
That’s because implicit in these articles championing Kamala’s potential foreign policy team is the idea that the reason that the world is in such disarray and the US is at risk of direct confrontation with Russia is because of Joe Biden. Economist Philip Pilkington on his always-interesting podcast Multipolarity recently took up this argument making the case that Biden, due primarily to his senility, failed to keep the Blob crazies on a leash; instead Biden let them loose allowing Ukraine to spiral out of control.
While Biden is no doubt a senile, angry old man, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken is quite stupid, are there reasons to believe that their exits will lead to a less belligerent foreign policy?
While some sort of detente with Russia would certainly be welcome, here are three reasons it is unlikely.
1. We need to remember that the puff pieces about smarter Democrat foreign policy advisers are a genre at this point. The same type of things being said about Gordon and Lissner were being written about Biden’s team four years ago. Sullivan, for example, was supposedly wary of foreign adventures and believed that “the strength of U.S. foreign policy and national security lies primarily in a thriving American middle class.”
He was lauded for visiting 112 countries with Hillary Clinton. And what was his focus going to be in the Biden White House? According to Politico, the Covid-19 pandemic:
The “major focus” of the Biden NSC’s work, at least initially, will be on beating the coronavirus pandemic and restructuring the NSC to make public health a permanent national security priority, Sullivan said.
So all these pieces about the foreign policy brain geniuses on Kamala’s team really mean nothing. These people do very little deciding on priorities or policy. So who does?
2. American plutocrats have wanted to return to the pre-Bolshevik days for more than 100 years. The goal to plunder Russia briefly became a reality upon the breakup of the USSR. In the 1990s, The US’ best and brightest sucked hundreds of billions of dollars out of the country with devastating results. The number of Russians living in poverty jumped from two million to sixty million in just a few years, and life expectancy plummeted. It made the Great Depression in the US look comparatively like a walk in the park. Putin put an end to this national catastrophe inflicted upon the country by the West, and they never forgave him for it. Why is the US and company so dead set on removing Putin and theoretically getting someone more “friendly” in power? Here are the leading countries based on natural resource value as of 2021(in trillions of dollars):
Source: Statista
In the eyes of American plutocrats, Russia is too valuable a prize, and they have now backed themselves into a corner by helping drive Moscow and Beijing together. If the thought of Russia controlling its own resources was intolerable, China having privileged access is unfathomable. The anti-Putin policies have been pumped out of corporate-financier think tanks in the US for two decades. Both of Kamala’s foreign policy brain geniuses, Gordon and Lissner, for example. have had stints at the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR). CFR’s funders, according to Influence Watch, include Accenture, Apple, Bank of America, BlackRock, Chevron, Cisco, Citi, ExxonMobil, Goldman Sachs, Google, Hess, Meta, JP Morgan Chase, Moody’s, and Morgan Stanley.
It also has corporate affiliations with Bayer, Blackstone, Bloomberg Philanthropies, Dell, Eni, KPMG, Mastercard, McKinsey and Company, PayPal, Sequoia Capital, Veritas Capital Fund Management, and others in its President’s Club program. CFR’s corporate affiliates include American International Group, Booz Allen Hamilton, FedEx, Johnson and Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Merck, Microsoft, Pfizer, TikTok, Twitter, United Airlines, and Wells Fargo.
Think tanks like CFR then steer legislation and foreign policy.
The RAND Corporation, which shares many of the same benefactors as CFR, laid out a plan to weaken Russia and topple Putin in its infamous 2019 paper, “Extending Russia.” It involved economic pressure, as well as starting conflagrations all around Russia — in Ukraine, the Caucasus, and in Central Asia. RAND’s blueprint has largely been followed — more successful in some areas than others.
And while it’s not mentioned in the RAND report, who’s to say the US won’t try to lead Europe or a portion of it (the Baltics, Poland, Germany?) from behind into more of a direct confrontation with Russia (as long as the US could wiggle out of Article 5 commitments)? Sure, it would be a disaster for any and all of them, but does the US care if the goal is to force Moscow to keep putting out fires?
The key question is do US plutocrats view their fight against Russia as existential? Judging by the RAND paper, they likely prefer a world on fire rather than accepting that they must live in a multipolar world. As the RAND report shows, there exists a clear line of thought in the Blob that overextending Russia by upping the chaos all around it will destabilize the country and bring about the downfall of Putin. The opposite has happened so far, but that doesn’t seem to matter.
As I pointed out in a recent piece examining Philip Gordon’s career, a major aspect that supposedly makes him smarter than those on the Biden team is that he’s more in line with Obama and believes in limits of America’s power. But when you really look at what they’re talking about, it’s not that they want to give up on regime change in Russia; it’s that they want to make sure the US isn’t getting too involved, that it isn’t Americans dying in a direct confrontation. One of the things they hung their hat during the Obama years was “leading from behind.” Is that not what the US is doing now? No direct confrontation with Russia, Ukrainians and mercenaries doing the dying, and working on setting the Caucasus on fire via Armenia. The flavor of the month is that the US is a responsible actor that might desire a “reset” with Russia at some point while it’s now the UK leading the escalation charge. France was recently the most gung-ho with Macron calling for troops. The Baltic states are always crazy. The US has largely been enacting the RAND plan while adhering to Obama’s lead-from-behind credo. To the last Ukrainian, as they say.
Speaking of Obama, he’s given credit for being “smarter” about Ukraine. That’s because he uttered some true words back in 2016:
“The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-nato country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do.”
What Obama was arguing was that the US should not go to war directly. But in the same interview with Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic he also echoed the RAND strategy, arguing that the US was successfully overextending Russia:
“Putin acted in Ukraine in response to a client state that was about to slip out of his grasp. And he improvised in a way to hang on to his control there,” he said. “He’s done the exact same thing in Syria, at enormous cost to the well-being of his own country. And the notion that somehow Russia is in a stronger position now, in Syria or in Ukraine, than they were before they invaded Ukraine or before he had to deploy military forces to Syria is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of power in foreign affairs or in the world generally. Real power means you can get what you want without having to exert violence. Russia was much more powerful when Ukraine looked like an independent country but was a kleptocracy that he could pull the strings on.”
Obama also oversaw the 2014 coup in Ukraine as the Blob was likely working from the same script the whole time. It just so happened that Russia started its special military operation while Biden was president rather than Obama. The Blob was able to continue its efforts to bring about a Ukraine-Russia conflict in the interim under Trump despite the freakout over Russiagate. What indication is there that Trump would be able and willing to take these forces on should he become president again?
So is there any reason to believe whatsoever that the plutocrats funding the DC think tanks and fueling this new Cold War strategy are going to rethink the plan because Ukraine is defeated on the battlefield and a new administration takes over in Washington?
Or is it more likely that the US will continue trying to destabilize regions all around Russia? Is it more likely that the US will accept defeat in Ukraine or try to ensure that Ukraine remains a steaming pile of rubble that Russia must commit men and money towards pacifying Ukraine? Recently the Duran’s Alexander Mercouris and Alexander Christoforou were talking about the possibility that Zelensky will be replaced with the former Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Arsen Avakov, because he’s someone who could effectively keep up a terror campaign in a failed state due to his close ties with neo-Nazi groups and his penchant for collecting damaging information on people.
3. Was it just the fact that Democrats were apparently too lazy to update their platform in several areas, including on Russia, or are they trying to tell us something when the Kamala platform reads:
President Biden will never turn his back on our allies. In his second term, he will continue to strengthen NATO and stand with Ukraine to stop Putin’s atrocities and constrain Russia’s threat to allied nations and America’s vital interests.
If there was any doubt, here’s Harris in her nomination acceptance speech:
And that we strengthen—not abdicate—our global leadership. Trump, on the other hand, threatened to abandon NATO. He encouraged Putin to invade our allies. Said Russia could—quote—“do whatever the hell they want.” Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, I met with President Zelensky to warn him about Russia’s plan to invade. I helped mobilize a global response — over 50 countries — to defend against Putin’s aggression. And as President, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.
Meanwhile the oligarch-funded think tanks keep pumping out material arguing for an open ended Cold War with Russia. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that advocates for a sustained strategy of “containment.” Gordon co-authored a Council on Foreign Relations report with the Russia hardliner Republican Robert Blackwill. They called for the kitchen sink to be thrown at Russia, including sanctions, weapons, an undying commitment to Ukraine and Europe — basically what the US has done since.
While Kamala and the Democrats might not be the ones setting the agenda, they are letting the US oligarchs know that they will adhere to their agenda and continue the Russia policy, which could be a decades-long effort. The think tanks are saying this, that the new Cold War is here to stay. Maybe Gordon and Kamala’s Obama-esque team is more crafty and takes a step back to regroup but policy will not change. It could potentially get even worse, as a new emphasis on leading from behind could help remove the US from the plan’s consequences.
For now, the narrative works out well. Biden can be blamed for Ukraine’s defeat and the new and improved Kamala team can arrive to enact a smarter policy that’s pretty much the same as the old dumb policy. I would love to be wrong.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/08 ... ident.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."