Posted on January 5, 2025 by Conor Gallagher
There are plenty of theories of what brought down Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 on Christmas Day. The plane, which was traveling from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny in the Russian region of Chechnya, ran into trouble over Russia and made an emergency landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan, in which 38 of the 67 people on board were killed.
The black boxes from the aircraft are currently being analyzed at Brazil’s Center for Investigation and Prevention of Aeronautical Accidents, but what’s already clear is that some have already made up their minds that Russia is responsible. Media in the US and Europe were of course quick to point the finger. That’s unsurprising; they blame Moscow for every stubbed toe and spilt coffee.
What is surprising is that the president of Azerbaijan — whose country has maintained strong ties with Russia despite the with-us-or-against-us Western pressure in recent years — is on the same page as the Western media.
That marks a major shift. Regardless of whether the alleged downing of the plane was part of a new stage of provocative pressure against Moscow, an accident with Russian air defense missiles, or was some sharp-winged birds, it does appear to be doing real damage to the Azerbaijani-Russian relationship.
And that could have major implications for the South Caucasus where the pivot state of Azerbaijan is the most important transport and logistics hub in the region.
Let’s take a look at what the Azerbaijan president is saying about the incident and examine what it might mean for the region.
Aliyev’s Statements
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev was once described in a Wikileaks US diplomatic cable as an unpredictable hothead similar to Sonny Corleone, but he has been anything but in recent years. While calmly playing both sides, he’s managed to retake Nagorno-Karabakh (whatever one may think about the method), become a major gas supplier to the EU, and maintain strong ties with Moscow and workable relationships with other players in the region.
His comments about the plane crash therefore raise eyebrows.
Before the black boxes are analyzed, Aliyev is putting the blame on Russia, which he says accidentally shot down the plane, continued to use electronic warfare against it afterwards, and then tried to cover it up. He might end up being right, but these are still bold proclamations coming from the president who just recently stood by Azerbaijan’s alliance with Russia. Here are the relevant quotes from his Dec. 29 interview with Azerbaijan Television at Heydar Aliyev (Ilham’s father) International Airport:
The facts indicate that the Azerbaijani civilian plane was damaged from the outside over Russian territory, near the city of Grozny, and almost lost control. We also know that means of electronic warfare put our plane out of control. This was the first impact on the plane. At the same time, as a result of fire from the ground, the tail of the plane was also severely damaged…
The fact that the fuselage is riddled with holes indicates that the theory of the plane hitting a flock of birds, which was brought up by someone, is completely removed from the agenda. It is possible that when the plane was damaged, when it was hit, the pilot could have perceived it as a collision with birds. Because it would probably never have occurred to anyone that our plane might be fired at from the ground while flying over a country friendly to us. Unfortunately, however, some circles in Russia preferred to put forward this theory. Another regrettable and surprising moment for us was that official Russian agencies put forward theories about the explosion of a gas cylinder on board the plane. In other words, this clearly showed that the Russian side wanted to cover up the issue, which, of course, is unbecoming of anyone. Of course, our plane was hit by accident. Of course, there can be no talk of a deliberate act of terror here. Therefore, admitting guilt, apologizing in a timely manner to Azerbaijan, which is considered a friendly country, and informing the public about this – these were measures and steps that should have been taken. Unfortunately, for the first three days, we heard nothing from Russia except for some absurd theories…
Some believe that the plane was deliberately sent off course by ground handling services in Grozny because the plane was already out of control, and there was a high probability it would fall into the sea. If this had been the case, the cover-up attempts would have been successful, and the so-called bird theory would have been presented as the most likely version…we can clearly say today that the plane was shot down by Russia. This is a fact, and no-one can deny this fact. Again, we are not saying that this was done intentionally, but it was done.
Strong accusations. Notably Aliyev does not once mention Ukrainian drones, which were being launched against civilian infrastructure in the region at the time of the plane downing. That might help explain how Russia accidentally shot at the plane — if that’s indeed what happened. It’s unclear why Aliyev doesn’t mention the possibility that shrapnel from a Ukrainian drone could have caused the damage to the plane.
While Aliyev no doubt has public opinion to worry about after such an awful incident, is it not odd that even if his theory is 100 percent correct, he wouldn’t at least try to soften the blow against his ally Russia and present Ukraine as at least partially responsible? Instead Kiev is largely getting a free pass as public anger is directed at Moscow.
For what it’s worth, Aliyev’s theory of what happened is the same as US officials quoted in American media. Both could be right, although Western media no doubt have an interest in using the incident to drive a wedge between Baku and Moscow.
The question is whether Aliyev is on board with that potential outcome? Could he be looking to play an Erdogan role where he utilizes leverage over Moscow in a similar way that Ankara has?
Viewing Aliyev’s Comments Against Backdrop of Recent Events in South Caucasus
Aliyev’s being so quick to forcefully blame Russia is a bit of a Sonny Corleone reaction, especially for someone who’s played his cards carefully in recent years. Could recent events in the Caucasus help explain his shift? Let’s examine the terrain:
Russian influence has come under increasing pressure there since the start of the Ukraine war.
Georgia looks to have fought off a color revolution attempt for now. Again it’s important to note the ruling party in Georgia is not anti-US or EU, it simply wants to maintain good ties with Russia and not be turned into another Ukraine.
In Armenia it’s another story. It continues to move out of Russian orbit politically if not economically. A US military officer is now the main adviser to Armenia’s defense ministry, the French are training Armenian units and signing weapons deals, and India has replaced Russia as Armenia’s top arms supplier. Yerevan is also seeking security guarantees from Brussels and Washington.
Moscow is observing the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process from the sidelines (it used to lead the talks), although it still seemingly exerts quite a bit of influence over Baku. The two sides are nearing the conclusion of bilateral negotiations on a peace agreement that could have major implications for connectivity at the Eurasian crossroads. Simultaneously, Türkiye and Armenia are working to normalize relations, a process that Ankara ties to Armenia’s talks with Baku.
The US has weaseled its way into these processes via Armenia and is looking to exploit the situation to weaken Iran and Russia.
There are hang ups to deals between Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Armenia, including Baku’s demand that Armenia remove an implicit claim on Nagorno-Karabakh in its constitution.
The most challenging issue in Armenian-Azerbaijani talks, however, is the establishment of transport links and specifically who will control them.
The Battle for Control Over Logistics Corridors in the South Caucasus
The so-called Zangezur Corridor – which would stretch parallel to Armenia’s border with Iran and link Azerbaijan to its Türkiye-bordered exclave of Nakhchivan — is the missing link in what would be the shortest land transport route between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. And key to many involved parties is not only the shorter distance but the fact that it’s one of the few routes that entirely bypasses Russia.
The corridor would also be a key intersection point of other burgeoning North–South and East–West routes.
The Middle Corridor, for example, which passes from China through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye extending to Europe could see major upgrades with the opening of Zangezur.

And so outside involvement and pressure steadily builds on Armenia and Azerbaijan .
The main issue holding up talks between the two is Point 9 of the trilateral statement signed between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia in 2020 following the Second Karabakh War, which reads:
All economic and transport links in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the safety of transport communication between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with a view to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Control over transport communication shall be exercised by the Border Guard Service bodies of the FSS of Russia.
Azerbaijan continues to insist upon this point, while Armenia no longer wants Russian border guards present, and instead argues for solutions like Russia monitoring the corridor from afar. How exactly that would be done isn’t yet clear.
The Armenian prime minister is making statements about entrusting Zangezur’s security to foreign private forces. These ideas are coming as Armenia removes Russian border guards.
On Wednesday at Armenia’s request, the Russians withdrew from the only official Armenian-Iranian crossing, which followed the departure of Russian border guards from Yerevan’s Zvartnots Airport in July,. Since 1992 Armenia’s borders with Türkiye and Iran have been the responsibility of Russian troops.
Meanwhile, the number of EU guards on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border keeps expanding.
Both Azerbaijan and Russia are critical of the EU mission creep, and Baku continues to insist that Yerevan agree to the deployment of Russian border guards along the Zangezur Corridor.
Could that be changing?
Any agreement between Baku and Yerevan (and its Western backers) that excludes Russia would be a major power play from the Turkic axis and a perceived win for the US-Israel axis as it would sideline Russia and Iran.
How the latter two would respond remains to be seen, but what’s clear is how the Middle East conflicts and Ukraine war are bleeding into the Caucasus. It’s easy to see how it could become part of a deal that helps temporarily ease the tensions among the conquering parties of Syria by continuing to focus on areas on overlapping interests or get dragged in nonetheless.
Here’s a brief look at key players positions in this theater of The Great Game:
Iran
Pretty straightforward:
Regional peace, security and stability is not merely a preference, but a pillar of our national security.
Any threat from North, South, East, or West to territorial integrity of our neighbors or redrawing of boundaries is totally unacceptable and a red line for Iran.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) September 5, 2024
From Iran’s perspective the Zangezur Corridor is a nightmare. Neocon think tanks in Washington have long dreamed of using Azerbaijan to destabilize Iran — as they have for weakening Russian influence in the South Caucasus. Ethnic Azeri citizens who are estimated to make up 15 percent of the Iranian population.
Tehran’s concerns about Azerbaijan are further aggravated by Tel Aviv’s support to Azerbaijan (more on that below). Tehran also faces the following economic fallout from the Zangezur Corridor, according to Security & Defence Quarterly::
Azerbaijan used to pay 15 percent of the 350 million cubic metres of gas sent to Nakhchivan through Iran as a transit fee. With the opening of the new corridor, Iran may lose this profit.
An agreement on sale of gas was signed between Türkiye and Iran in 1996. Based on that agreement, Türkiye has been buying gas from Iran for years. While Türkiye pays Iran US$490 for a thousand cubic metres of gas, it can buy the same amount from Azerbaijan for US$335.
If a gas pipeline is built from Azerbaijan to Türkiye through this corridor, Iran’s loss of gas revenue may be huge.
The planned gas pipeline project from Turkmenistan through Iran to Türkiye then to Europe was frozen in 2017 because of financial disagreements. Turkmenistan can now deliver this gas to Europe via Azerbaijan.
The importance of Iran’s pipeline to Armenia has also decreased.
The Strategic Council of Foreign Relations in Tehran, whose director is Iran’s former minister of foreign affairs Kamal Kharazi, condemned the construction of the Zangezur corridor, indicating that the corridor has been introduced as NATO’s “Turan corridor,” a project ostensibly supported by Israel and NATO, which aims to foment ethnic unrest in the areas of Iran inhabited by Turks. As per the aforementioned Council, NATO’s Turan corridor is supposed to directly bring NATO onto the northern border of Iran, the southern border of Russia, and western China and lay the groundwork for their disintegration.
Moscow and Tehran are reportedly set to sign their strategic partnership in the coming weeks, which will alter the calculus of all involved parties.
Türkiye
Türkiye has been the driving force behind many of the Caucasus cooperation projects in recent years, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, and the Trans-Anatolian and Trans-Adriatic Pipelines connecting Azerbaijan to Europe via Türkiye.
Erdogan and friends view the Zangezur Corridor as bigger than all that and a key piece in the country’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power. Here’s what Ankara envisions:
A gas pipeline from Baku to Türkiye through the corridor.
Increased leverage in negotiating gas prices with Iran.
Resurrecting the Trans-Caspian pipeline and transporting that gas through Türkiye to Europe (A pipeline through a Nakhchivan corridor could help boost supplies to Europe to upwards of 31 bcm, although that would be years away, and ironically, due to its heavy investments in the Azerbaijani oil and gas sector, one of the bigger beneficiaries of any Brussels-Baku deals could be Russia. Azerbaijan is even importing more Russian gas itself in order to meet its obligations to Europe.
A logistics corridor stretching to China.
A railroad line from Türkiye to Nakhchivan could make Türkiye a regional transit hub in addition to an energy one.
The US-Israel-EU
The US wants to sideline Russia and Iran. The EU does what the US wants.
Therefore, the West (including Türkiye) tries to ensure the flow of resources of the South Caucasus and Central Asia to Europe bypassing Russia and Iran and reducing their influence, as well as that of Beijing. As always, the US permanent state is in lockstep with Israel, and it’s important to note that despite the surface friction between Ankara and Tel Aviv, in the South Caucasus their interests once again align.
Israel supports pan-Turkic ambitions through the Caucasus because Tel Aviv views Turkish influence as preferable to that of Iran — even if it potentially sets “Greater Türkiye” and “Greater Israel” up for a future clash.
Israel too continues to exert influence in Azerbaijan through its role as the country’s main weapon supplier, including air defense systems, all the latest in drones and surveillance tech, as well as cooperation in cybersecurity. Israel is also Azerbaijan’s leading oil importer, a trade which continues to be partially facilitated by Türkiye despite the country’s ban on trade with Israel — or what Erdogan calls a “Zionist terrorist organization.”
China
Beijing wants to expand its influence and open or expand more trade routes. China has signed strategic partnership agreements with Tbilisi and Baku and is pursuing major infrastructure projects, such as that port in Georgia, which causes so much heartburn in the US.
Russia
Russia wants to maintain a dominant role in the Caucasus, including in trade corridors, which become even more important due to Western isolation efforts. It was long in Moscow’s interests to have a simmering conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan as that allowed it to play peace broker and maintain a presence, but it is increasingly being pushed out of these processes.
It still has a military base in Armenia, as well as peacekeepers, and border control, although their numbers are declining at Armenia’s request, and the military base could be next.
Armenia
The corridor would be a boon for Armenia — as long as it doesn’t alienate Russia, which it largely depends on economically. From the Emirates Policy Center:
Russia has also kept Armenia in its orbit through maintaining economic ties. The trade turnover between the two countries increased from $2.6 billion in 2021 to $7.3 billion in 2023. That has significantly ensured the growth of Armenia’s GDP by 12.6% in 2022 and by 8.3% in 2023. Armenia declares that it is not interested in breaking relations with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), affirming plans to actively participate in the organization despite the fact that Armenia has frozen its membership in the CSTO and is reducing its activity in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Moreover, the EAEU-Iran free trade agreement boosts Armenia’s role as the only EAEU member bordering Iran. Close economic ties also give Russia leverage, as many Armenian producers depend on its market, allowing Moscow to impose restrictive measures if needed. Additionally, EAEU membership prevents Armenia from signing an Association Agreement with the EU, creating a long-term economic deterrent against turning to the West.
Despite the economic reliance on Russia, Armenia has largely been infiltrated by American interests and could likely be made to go along with a deal that fits with the US-Israel’s goals.
The key is Azerbaijan, which much like Türkiye effectively plays both sides. It enjoys ties with Russia primarily in energy and logistics while upping its natural gas deliveries to the EU. It has a strong weapons-for-energy relationship with Israel that it uses to help balance its relationship with Iran.
Aliyev’s reaction to the downing of flight J2-8243 could point to a willingness to take some more chances with Russia. Like Erdogan, Aliyev might reasonably believe that Russia needs it at this time and is not in position to take a strong stance or retaliate. Moscow must cooperate with Baku on trade connectivity due to the West’s attempts to isolate it, and that’s a reliance Azerbaijan might now be keen to exploit.
Washington has long tried to resurrect animosity between Baku and Moscow. The US ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mark Libby, who previously worked in Baghdad and as deputy chief of mission and chargé d’affaires at the US Mission to the EU among other posts, was hastily dispatched to the country in December of 2023. One of his first actions was to visit the Alley of Martyrs dedicated to those killed by the Soviet Army during Black January 1990 (these old USSR wounds are gifts that just keep giving for the US, e.g.,“The Holodomor Industry” in Ukraine). Where that obvious ploy failed, the newer wound caused by Russia’s alleged downing of the flight could succeed.
In conclusion, it’s still too early to answer cui bono, but if actions accompany Aliyev’s accusations then we could be looking at another win for the US-Israel axis.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/01 ... casus.html
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Russia Matters: Russia Plans to Force Ukraine’s NPPs Offline as Its Army Captures Chicago-Sized Amount of Land
January 4, 2025
Russia Matters, 1/3/24
Russia has refrained from direct attacks on the three nuclear plants which are located on the territories controlled by Kyiv and which are now responsible for most of Ukraine’s electricity. Rather than target these NPPS in what could trigger a “catastrophic disaster,” Russian forces have recently focused on crippling these power plants’ abilities to transmit power by destroying the substations connecting them to the grid, according to NYT. In an effort to prevent such crippling, Ukraine has asked the IAEA to have its personnel stay at the substations, but the agency has only agreed to send periodic monitoring missions. Together, the three NPPs can provide 7.7 gigawatts of electricity, more than half of the country’s current generation capacity, according to DiXi Group. Thus, Ukraine is left dependent on three old Soviet nuclear reactors for as much as two–thirds of the country’s electricity generation. It is also highly unlikely that the IAEA will agree to have its personnel serve as human shields at Ukraine’s three NPPs.
Russia gained 227 square miles of territory (589 square kilometers, roughly the size of Chicago) in the month preceding Dec. 31, 2024, according to The Economist. In the past two weeks alone, the Russian armed forces have captured Makarivka, Sukhi Yaly and Zelenivka, Ukrainka, Dachenske, Novyi Trud and Vovkove, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group. To compensate for being outgunned and outmanned, the Ukrainian armed forces have recently resorted to badly-needed innovations, such as the first attack relying solely on unmanned ground vehicles, which occurred north of Kharkiv City on Dec. 20. In another instance of innovation, on Dec. 31 a Ukrainian naval drone shot down a Russian military helicopter for the first time, according to Ukraine’s intelligence service cited by Bloomberg.
Ukrainian authorities have launched a criminal probe into mass desertions in the country’s 155th mechanized brigade named after Anne of Kyiv and trained in France, according to Kyiv Independent. At least 50 of the brigade’s servicemen disappeared while they were still being drilled in France, according to Telegraph. By the time the brigade entered battle for the first time, at least 1,700 of its troops had gone AWOL, according to this UK newspaper. Figures published by the Ukrainian general prosecutor’s office show that more than 90,000 cases have been opened into instances of soldiers going absent without leave or deserting since Russia invaded in 2022, according to AFP.
The U.S. government has said it will allocate almost $6 billion in additional aid to Ukraine, as Biden rushes to provide Kyiv with fresh firepower before his presidency expires, FT reported. The transfer includes $1.25 billion in assistance from U.S. weapons and ammunition stockpiles, as well as $1.22 billion which allows Ukraine to purchase goods directly from the U.S. defense industry. The package includes ammunition for the high mobility artillery rocket system, air defense munitions and anti-tank missiles.
Russia’s two top diplomats have signaled the pending end of what the Kremlin has claimed to be a self-imposed moratorium on the deployment of medium-range missiles that were once banned by the now-defunct Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. First, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accused the U.S. of deploying such missiles in Asia and Europe in an interview with Kommersant on Dec. 27. Then his boss, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov weighed in two days later, asserting that “it is obvious that, for example, our moratorium on the deployment of INF missiles is already practically unviable and will have to be abandoned.”
In the waning days of 2024, Vladimir Putin expressed readiness to meet Donald Trump in the new year to discuss ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, but the Russian leadership was also quick to reject some of the key elements of a hypothetical peace deal proposed by Trump’s aides and his Western European counterparts. Among the rejected elements were immediate unconditional ceasefire, the stationing of a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine and the deferral of Ukraine’s membership in NATO for 20 years. In fact, “nothing from the incoming U.S. administration suggests anything of interest to us,” Russia’s envoy to the U.N., Vasily Nebenzya said of the Trump team’s proposals.
A most paradoxical feature of Russian-Ukrainian interaction throughout the course of the war has been that, in spite of the hostilities, Ukraine has continued to allow the transit of Russian gas through its territory. Not anymore. At 8 a.m. on Jan. 1, Russian gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine stopped, following the expiration of the transit contract. The route through Ukraine was one of the last two routes still carrying Russian gas to Europe. Its closure means EU countries will lose about 5% of gas imports in the middle of winter, according to FT.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/01/rus ... t-of-land/
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Everything the West Believes about Russia is Wrong!
East Calling stream Dec. 29th, 2024
Zinderneuf
Jan 02, 2025
Cross-post from East’s Substack
The East Calling team provides a detailed economic analysis and discussion about the state of the Russian economy under Putin and also discusses news events of the day! - Zinderneuf
Welcome back, everyone!
Jelena and Zin had a different sort of Sunday stream which begins with a full statistical breakdown of the answer to the question, “has Vladimir Putin taken care of Russia?” Zin gathered quite a lot of slides on economic data specifically to address this topic and to answer the question more thoroughly than Vladimir Putin was able to in a live question and answer session. We also discuss recent news. This includes the Azerbaijani plane crash as well as the other tragedies involving plane crashes around the world that happened in short succession. Pavel Durov has also now cut off access to RIA Novosti, Izvestia, etc giving into Western pressure and further isolating those that live in the West from outside perspectives.
(Video at link.)
https://eastcalling.substack.com/cp/154056428
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Transcript of ‘Dialogue Works’ edition of 3 January
Transcript submitted by a reader
Nima R. Alkhorshid: 0:06
Hi everybody, today is Friday, January 3rd, 2025, and our friend Gilbert Doctorow is back with us. Welcome back, Gilbert.
Gilbert Doctorow, PhD:
Good to be with you and happy new year.
Alkhorshid:
Happy new year. Let’s get started with what’s going on right now between Russia and the United States. The Russian representative to the UN said that they’re receiving mixed messages from Washington. What does it mean and what do they understand from Washington right now?
Doctorow:
Well, to my understanding, the Kremlin does not take seriously the belligerent remarks coming from General Kellogg and from the other nominated persons around Trump, nominated to positions in the military and foreign relations. These have been out of line, not supportive of the message that Donald Trump was delivering before the election, which was one of finding a peace solution and one that was rather sympathetic, I would say, to the Russian situation. Instead, there has been this belligerency, how they will pound Russia if Russia does not come to the negotiating table under the dictates from Washington.
1:37
That’s what Mr. Trump’s assistants have been saying. Trump himself has been usually quiet, although when he, a week ago, 10 days ago, came out saying that he believed that Biden’s decision to permit the use of American missiles to strike deep into Russia was a foolish and dangerous decision. That already alerted Russia to the fact that Mr. Trump was a man they probably could do business with.
And accordingly, they have put to the side the negative remarks of his assistants and advisors, and they are hopeful that a meeting with Trump can be arranged, a direct meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. They see, in any case, as the Soviet Union always felt, the natural talking partner in global affairs for Russia is a country of its own scale, and that is the United States, and not these pygmy countries that make up Western Europe, who as they now fully realize are simply servants of Washington. They don’t want to negotiate with the servants, they want to negotiate with the master.
Alkhorshid: 3:05
But the situation, I think at the end of the day, there has to be some sort of understanding of the situation in Ukraine, is the situation in Ukraine and the way that the Biden administration is trying to send more aid, more weapons, and right now with the situation that Ukraine has with the European Union, are they really in a better position in Ukraine?
Doctorow:
Well, the position of Ukraine is worsening day by day. And then you have Mr. Zelensky coming out and bravely saying that the final cutoff of gas deliveries via the Ukrainian pipelines to Europe was a major defeat that he had inflicted on Russia. Well, that is– maybe he can enjoy that small comfort. But the reality on the ground is of course, very depressing for any Ukrainian patriots; they are losing badly on the ground. And that’s not that there’s no fighting spirit on the Ukrainian side; there is.
4:18
And they are making small counterattacks here and there along this 1200-kilometer-long line of confrontation. Nonetheless, their small counterattacks are being beaten down by the Russians, and the Russians are advancing daily kilometers here and there on the front. The most important thing is not to consider just their advancing, or what this means for the Ukrainian defenses. They are not giving the Ukrainians time as they fall back to construct defensive earthen works or concrete bunkers or whatever. So the Ukrainians are moving backwards without any defense.
Therefore, this onward march of the Russians westward is likely to continue, and therefore the Russians have had absolutely no interest in talking about a ceasefire. They will not give the Ukrainians a chance to recover, to most importantly, to find shelter from which they can hold their positions. I think– so the war is going very badly for the Ukrainians and any bright spots that Mr. Zelensky tries to present to the Western press are really beside the point.
Alkhorshid: 5:41
It seems that the Russians were approached by Emmanuel Macron and France. They’re talking about negotiating without Ukraine being part of those negotiations. First of all, is Russia interested to negotiate with France, as we saw? Because France was part of that negotiations in Minsk II, and they didn’t respect that.
Doctorow:
Well, I don’t think that Moscow has any high regard for Macron, on the contrary. The political observers believe that he has lost his political power. And I think they anticipate that his government, not the government, but that he personally will fall, will be forced to resign, especially if the latest government fails the vote of no confidence. So on those grounds, whatever Mr. Macron would say would not be taken very seriously by Moscow. But the bigger issue is that this question of France or another country acting as– European country– acting as intermediary, is of no interest to the Russians, for the reason I said a moment ago. They will seek a solution to the war that is embedded in a solution to Europe’s security architecture.
7:09
The boundaries, where the Ukraine exists, what kind of Ukraine it will be, what will happen to the neo-Nazis — all of these issues are relatively minor and are not of interest to Moscow today. They will be regulated, resolved in accordance with the resolution of the big issue of Russia and NATO in Europe and what is the security architecture. And for that, there’s only one interloctor, only one talking partner, and that is Donald Trump in Washington. All of the NATO member states in Europe account for nothing in this. Decisions about NATO were taken in Washington, not in Paris or London or xxxxx.
Therefore, for Russians to get a solution, to negotiate a solution to what Europe’s architecture of security looks like, there is only one person to deal with, and that man is Donald Trump. And since he made plain in his first term and reiterated in his campaign speeches for this election, November 5th, that NATO does not seem very attractive organization for him, particularly when all the member states are not carrying their weight and are dependent on the United States to essentially defend them. Though I think that there is ground for talk and negotiation and compromise between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin with respect to the future of NATO.
Alkhorshid: 9:01
Do they see Keith Kellogg’s proposal as a bargaining process or they see someone that is totally disconnected with the reality?
Doctorow:
I think it’s the second. But nobody understands, and I put myself in when I say nobody, including myself, understands fully the logic of Trump’s appointing this collection of neocon personalities in which Kellogg is one of them, and Rubio is another. These high-level positions that he’s designated in this future administration, they are hardliners. And what is the sense of this? The sense that I tried to find some weeks ago is that he wanted to gather all of his enemies in one room and then dominate them or ensure that they could not break free of his control and denounce him in general. That’s one possibility.
10:04
Another was an insurance policy for himself. He’s left everyone slightly uncertain what policies he will pursue once he takes office, And that is for him the best protection against another assassination attempt. As when Mr.– when Tony Blinken can believe that by shipping all of these several billion dollars in arms and financial assistance to Ukraine now in the closing days of their administration, they are doing Donald Trump a favor by strengthening his negotiating position– if that’s what they think, then I think that Mr. Trump has been very successful in bamboozling the people who hate him into hoping for or believing in a possible continuation of their disastrous policies under Trump. If he had appointed only people like Tulsi Gabbard, then I think there would be extra contracts out for his murder.
Alkhorshid: 11:11
In your opinion, right now, Russia, when they look at Donald Trump and this administration, as you’ve mentioned, most of them are neocons and connected with the neocon ideology. Do they, you remember those days when Donald Trump was running for 2024 presidential election, just weeks ago, Do they have the same sort of idea about Donald Trump? They have the same sort of hope about him? Or it’s changing in the Russian mind, in the Russian media?
Doctorow:
The Russian media have for weeks been saying that whoever is elected in the United States makes no difference, that the deep state is running the show, and that we should not expect any miracles from Donald Trump. That was the basic policy line across all of the major media in Russia. This came, that was the first reaction to the very disappointing nominations that Trump made.
And also with looking back to the experience of so much hope that was invested in Trump before his first term in office by the Russian side, all to be disappointed bitterly in what followed when he appointed this whole series of very anti-Russian advisors and implementers. So for these various reasons, Russians were saying, “We will solve the problem of Ukraine by ourselves, thank you. We will crush the Ukrainian army and we will make a peace on our terms. End of discussion.” But in their heart of hearts, they knew that wouldn’t the end of discussion, because it didn’t address the reason why they went to war, which was NATO.
13:03
And if they would succeed in crushing Ukraine and making, imposing a peace that prohibited foreign military installations and personnel operating in Ukraine, that would still not end the existential threat that NATO poses to Russia by its other locations. There is a common border with Poland, by Kaliningrad. There is now this 1200-kilometer-long border with Finland, which has invited in all sorts of American installations and personnel. These threats will continue. There’s also the intentions of NATO and the United States to stir up trouble in Georgia, to stir up trouble in Armenia, to stir up trouble in Moldova.
14:10
So peaceful living will not be possible for Russia even if they succeed in utterly destroying the Ukrainian army. Destroying the Ukrainian army of course is a big deal, but it is not the end of the conflict with the United States-led race.
Alkhorshid:
When it comes to this security of Europe and those agreements that Russia was talking about on December 2021, and they were asking for some sort of security agreement. Right now, is that the same or they’re going to put some sort of, I’m not talking about Ukraine, I’m talking about Europe, or do they have some more considerations about Europe?
Doctorow: 15:03
Those terms were set down in December of 2021 dealing with one president who was a bitter, hardline Cold Warrior. Now, what will be on the negotiating table will be before Mr. Trump, who is somewhat unpredictable, but perhaps, perhaps meant what he said when he spoke so disparagingly about NATO. And perhaps, perhaps can scale down American participation in NATO to the degree where it just collapses for lack of military might. Without the United States participation, full steam, there’s nothing. All the European countries put together count for nothing militarily.
15:52
For any overseas mission, they all rely on them, and several of them, unfortunately, in the last 25 years, they have relied entirely on American air support, logistical support, not to mention weaponry. The armaments in Germany– to look only at the number count is to miss the point of the quality of the count. They are inferior to what Russia fields. They’re unable, NATO in Europe, without the United States, is unable to stand up to Russia. It can do so only by resorting to nuclear weapons, since there are after all France and Britain both are nuclear powers and aren’t dependent on America, the nuclear umbrella, they could pose a serious threat to Russia if they decided to replace the United States as the guarantor.
16:53
But that is improbable. The use of nuclear weapons is [to open] Pandora’s box, which would very quickly result in the destruction, the utter destruction of Europe. Therefore, that’s improbable as a scenario. So as I’m saying, if Trump simply cuts back on American support for NATO, doesn’t have to leave NATO. Leaving NATO is a very difficult trick to pull off because American law requires a Congress– congressional approval, which Trump will not get for this.
But he has his own very extensive powers as chief executive to either implement and execute appropriations that were made to NATO or obligations that were assumed with respect to NATO. He can simply default on his obligations and no one can say a word, and NATO will collapse like a house of cards. There is, therefore, room for Russians to hope that a deal can be struck with Donald Trump. It’s not essential to end this war. The war will end, Ukraine will end with a Ukrainian capitulation. That’s almost certain. But the confrontation and the risks of escalation into something horrible will remain so long as NATO enjoys its present status.
Alkhorshid: 18:25
If we consider the Biden administration, Victoria Nuland, Joe Biden, Anthony Blinken, and Jake Sullivan, These were those people who were totally connected with the situation in Ukraine. They have done a lot to bring this war to that region. And right now Joe Biden is not functioning, Victoria Nuland is gone.
Two other characters are Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, still in power. Just removing these two figures from the conflict in Ukraine and replacing them by Waltz and Rubio. We know that Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan have a lot of connection with Zelensky and his administration. They’re totally connected. They have a lot of links. But replacing these two figures and by the Trump administration, is that going to bring some sort of change? Is that considerable in your opinion?
Doctorow: 19:30
That’s imponderable. Look, I go back to what I was saying a few moments ago. The appointment of these odious figures to be, to senior positions in the administration, can be what it looks like, which is not good, or it can be something that it doesn’t look like at all, which is following the rule of “keep your enemies close to your chest”.
Alkhorshid: 19:59
Yeah.
Doctorow:
The way to disarm, to defang these people is to have them more close to himself and that he is not dependent on them for advice. He will be keeping counsel with himself and with a very few select people who are not in that circle. For example, Elon Musk, who is probably the person closest to the president and who certainly cannot be expected to pursue any of the Biden policies that people like Rubio would appear to back.
Alkhorshid: 20:35
The situation with the Russian gas, Russia not being able to send their gas directly to Slovakia and other countries. Do you think that– Sikorsky yesterday he was bragging about how strong Ukraine is in cutting off the Russian gas. Do you think that this would bring even more problems within the European Union, or the situation cannot get worse?
21:07
Well, it certainly doesn’t improve relations between Slovakia and Brussels. That’s … clear. Mr. Fitco was rightly angry at everything that Von der Leyen was doing, and she is among those who is calling for an absolute cutoff of Russian hydrocarbons to the European Union.
The poll of Russians, Mr. Sikorsky can make his propaganda points. In general, I think Sikorski is the shit on his pants. The Poles, the top-level Poles, I think are very worried about Russian power today. They may have their orders for tanks and everything else coming in from Korea, but the reality is that Russia has everything now.
And what was true two years ago, that the Polish elite were saying that Russia could just roll over them. I think that remains the case. And therefore, Sikorsky is kind of singing a nice positive sound for the public. I don’t believe for a minute that he feels confident of Polish security in the face of an aggressive Russia, aggressive if Russia feels threatened by anything the Poland is doing.
22:27
Therefore, let’s look at the reality of this cut-off. Russia’s relations with Ukraine over the transit of its gas to Europe, over on the same pipelines and gas reserve system that Ukraine has maintained. This goes back to 2005. There were big conflicts in 2005, 2006, and 2009 over first of all over siphoning off gas that was in the pipeline from Russia with intention of being transferred to Western Europe, but was siphoned off by Ukraine for its own needs without any records, without any offer of compensation. Then there was Ukraine’s inability or unwillingness to pay for the gas they received. And so there were big conflicts and a shutdown of Russian delivery of gas in 2009, which was of course raised as an issue of Russia’s reliability by all the usual propagandists in Washington and Western Europe.
23:36
The fact that the cut, shut-off, took place because they weren’t paid for what they delivered, nobody bothered to talk about. Nonetheless, there was this background of Russia’s difficulties with a pre-2014 Ukraine that was dishonest, thieving, and malicious. And after 2014, it has been, and particularly after the start of the special military operation, when the Ukrainians, who Mr. Zelensky has been calling daily, weekly, monthly for Europe to impose the most drastic sanctions to deprive Russia of its financial means to pursue the war against Ukraine, it was an anomaly that Ukraine itself was facilitating the delivery of six and a half billion dollars worth of Russian gas to Central Europe over its pipelines. Of course, there had been much more delivered over those pipelines prior to the self-prohibition imposed by various European member states on receiving pipeline gas from Russia.
24:52
But there was still this residual six and a half billion, which represented five percent of European Union gas consumption that was passing through the Ukrainian pipelines. Now that has stopped since the five-year contract under which it was being delivered was not renewed. And that is six and a half billion dollars less that Russia will earn from that particular pipeline. It means one billion dollars per year less that Ukraine will earn as transit fees. So he can claim that he is harming the Russians, but he is harming his own economy to the tune of one billion dollars a year.
25:36
Considering the kind of infusion of money he receives from Washington, I don’t think that one billion is a great loss to Mr. Zelensky and his circle. A loss of six and a half billion for Russia is also not what it looks like. It is reasonable to assume that a fair portion of that gas that is not going to be delivered by this pipeline will be delivered as liquefied natural gas to Europe by Russia. Despite all of the talk of cutting back on hydrocarbon imports from Russia, in 2024 the European Union imported more Russian gas by liquified natural gas than it did in 2023.
26:27
So it’s reasonable to assume that some of the gas deliveries not going through the Ukrainian pipeline will now reach Europe in the form of LNG. But that remains to be seen, of course. Overall, to take that six-billion-dollar loss, and I want to say all the Russians are suffering, the Russians have imposed on themselves a much heavier loss of income in arms sales. I believe their annual arms sales were running at 30 billion dollars a year. They’re now running at zero, because all of Russia’s arms production capability is focused on satisfying demand of its own armed forces to pursue the war in Ukraine and to prepare for a war with NATO.
27:14
Therefore, if you want to look at overall costs, let us say this is one fifth, one sixth of what Russia has itself sacrificed to pursue the war without any reference to sanctions or actions by Western Europe or the United States. That’s to put it into perspective.
Alkhorshid: 27:35
If Fico in Slovakia, you’ve mentioned Brussels being responsible for what’s going on, but I would point out that Washington would be responsible for what’s going on with Ukraine. I do believe that they’re thinking that it’s going to be part of the bargaining process for them. And the question is, to what extent Washington is willing to sacrifice Europe in the process of conflict in Ukraine?
Doctorow:
Oh, it doesn’t hesitate for a moment. I think one of the wins for the United States in the whole war in Ukraine is precisely that it’s reinforced, reached probably a never-before level of control over everything that’s going on in Europe. So from that standpoint, for Europe to be weakened, for Europe to feel threatened, and to realize its total dependency on the United States for security. That is all a plus for Washington, in Washington’s book.
28:42
You would think that in a normal world, the United States would want to have strong allies. But regrettably, that wisdom is not understood in Washington, and they much prefer to have slaves. And in the crop of elected leaders in Europe, they have 27, 25 willing slaves, which is very, very sad and is what condemns Europe in its present configuration to a zero role in the world.
Alkhorshid: 29:20
How about Syria? Do we know that Russia would stay in Syria or they’re going to leave?
Doctorow:
I don’t have any special insider knowledge. I look at what’s on YouTube and there are a lot of sensationalist video clips on what Putin is doing, not doing in Syria, what he is doing, not doing in Libya. I cannot comment on this because I don’t believe any of these … widely watched and sensationalist video clips are based on verifiable fact. So I just sit tight and wait to see how it develops. I believe the Russians would like to stay in Syria.
I believe that the government in Damascus would like to have the Russians there as a kind of counterforce in case things don’t go too well with Israel, in case things don’t go too well with Israel, in case things don’t go too well with Turkey. They would like to have another player of weight at their side. So it could be they’ll strike a deal, but I have no insider’s knowledge to judge what is now going on. And Russian media say nothing about it.
Alkhorshid: 30:39
It seems that the deal between Iran and Russia, the agreement that comprehensive agreement would be signed on January 20th, hours before Donald Trump takes office in Washington. Are they talking about what it’s going to be with how they’re going to, what are the … influence, what are the main objectives of this agreement? Because right now nobody knows what’s going to be in that agreement. Are they talking about it in the Russian media or they’re not talking about anything about it?
Doctorow: 31:19
No, they’re not talking about it. I don’t think that the content has been leaked by anybody in the circle of Vladimir Putin. And so we’ll wait and see. The logic is that it will have this big component of mutual defense. The logic is that this will provide substantial assistance to Iran in deterring irresponsible, reckless action by Israel and its US backers. But to what extent Moscow is comfortable with the government in Tehran, we don’t know.
Alkhorshid: 32:03
Yeah. And right now, situation in Ukraine, Joe Biden is leaving Washington and Donald Trump is coming. Are we going to be surprised before Joe Biden leaving? Because the days are just running out. The Biden administration is running out of time right now.
Doctorow:
The logic is that the Russians will increase their offensive and will try to reach the Dnieper before the inauguration. That would certainly facilitate talks with Trump, because they will have achieved most of their objectives in the special march operation. And they would ease the situation for Trump himself because it wouldn’t look like he’s compromising things when they’ve already been lost. That is the logic. But whether I think Putin is willing to take additional losses, which any major offensive would necessarily entail, that again is unforeseeable. The latest Russian achievements is that they took Kurakhove, which is one of the logistical hubs.
They still have not completed their conquest of Pokrovsk, or Krasnoyarsk, as they’re calling it now. But that is clearly going to fall in the next several weeks, meaning that the Russians will have a clean route to the Dnieper, because the major defence points and logistical points will have been lost by the Ukrainians. And it’s a straight run across the plain without any particular elevations or major rivers that would slow them down. The Ukrainians will not be slaughtered in one day. They will fall back and fall back and fall back until they reach the river and find a way across. But I think there’s a reasonable expectation that in the coming month, the Russians could finish up xxxx xxxxx.
Alkhorshid: 34:18
The situation in AfD, Alternative for Germany, and the changes that are happening in Germany, do you think that these parties capable of standing against the policies of Washington in Germany, or they’re not that capable?
Doctorow:
Well, we will see in the elections in February, to what extent they are capable of winning over a substantial portion of the electorate, sufficient enough for the cordon sanitaire that the centrist parties have built around the AFD to prevent it centering the government. I have to say, I’m not very happy that Elon Musk is throwing his money and his prestige behind the AfD. And I would have been much happier if he had backed the leftist candidate, Sahra Wagenknecht and her party, which is, I think, much cleaner than the AfD. For me, the AfD has one particular drawback.
35:33
What we’ve been living through for the last 15, 20 years has been a new generation thinking within Germany about collective guilt and collective responsibility. And it was precisely the Alternative for Deutschland that raised this issue and made it a public issue, that of refusing to accept guilt, responsibility, for what the grandfathers, the Hitler generation had perpetrated in Europe and the destruction of European Jewry. It’s understandable that they would like to see statute of limitations for this responsibility, but regrettably I cannot support that. And regrettably, the decisions that Germany has made under Scholz indicate that there are the same weak points of utter conformism and pursuit of policies that are self-destructive and a unwillingness to heed the voice of conscience in the question of Israel’s genocide in Gaza. These issues raise for me a question of national guilt in present-day Germany.
37:01
And lest anyone think that I am being unfair or unreasonable, I extend the same logic to the United States of America. The whole American nation now bears collective responsibility or collective guilt for the genocide in Gaza. Those who are not protesting against it in the streets, those who are not finding ways of civil disobedience or whatever to express their utter dislike, their utter contempt for the politicians who are facilitating that genocide — this leaves the whole country with a kind of collective guilt.
37:47
I do not believe, I am not a subscriber, to “woke” principles. I personally reject the notion of responsibility of anyone living today for what great grandfathers, for what people 150 years ago did or didn’t do. I think that is unreasonable. But we all have responsibility for what we do or don’t do. And that’s where I say, I’m not happy with the AfD, and I’m not happy with the American political, or the American voters today for their silence, relative silence on the disaster being perpetrated in their name by the Biden administration’s support, unqualified support for Israeli aggression.
Alkhorshid: 38:37
Yeah. Thank you so much, Gilbert, for being with us today. Great pleasure as always.
Doctorow:
I thank you for the opportunity to express some unusual news.
Alkhorshid:
And happy new year.
Doctorow:
Fine. You too. Bye-bye.
Alkhorshid: 38:53
Bye-bye.
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/01/03/ ... 3-january/
*****
"Resource-P" No. 5
January 4, 17:06

"Resurs-P" No. 5
Yesterday Roscosmos conducted the first activation of the "Geoton-L1" equipment - the main instrument for observing the Earth's surface with high spatial resolution.
The "Resurs-P" No. 5 spacecraft was launched into orbit on December 25 last year.
The pictures show the first images along the flight path over the territories of the USA, China and the UAE.




It is necessary to increase the orbital grouping of reconnaissance satellites.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9591102.html
Chubais sends his regards
January 4, 9:00

Chubais, who fled abroad, sends greetings.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9590043.html
'Columbian Necktie' is what he deserves for the harm he has done to the Russian people.
*******
New Year's address
Dear comrades!
We congratulate you, who have maintained firmness and integrity in matters of scientific, theoretical and personnel policy, on overcoming all the difficulties and complexities of 2024 and on entering the year 2025, which promises to be a year of new successes for the core group of the Proryv magazine and its branches, consistent in their integrity.
We wish you all good health, a good fighting spirit, and dialectically armed wisdom.
A number of our former comrades, who had not sufficiently assimilated the calls of the magazine “Proryv” to spare no effort in mastering the most fundamental scientific and theoretical depths of Marxism-Leninism, especially its dialectical materialism, to spare no time in promoting the most subtle issues of the theory of building a communist society, as a result naturally moved to the positions that most left-wing bloggers now hold and will hold: “to welcome every sneeze” of the current bourgeois existence, to respond to every tragic moment in the life of the market liberal-democratic and clerical-nationalist community, to briefly tell the average person about the unexpected rise in prices, about fuel oil on the beaches, about air crashes, about corruption, about the defects of the education system, about the decline of morals... Justifications were found for crude publications, calls were heard not to wash dirty linen in public, even if it was found there, to create a party of scientific centralism at an accelerated pace, recruiting whoever comes along with dubious unity of views of potential members of the future Central Committee.
That is, the scientific-theoretical form of class struggle against internal opportunism, in the crucible of which, according to Lenin, Bolshevism was forged, did not bypass the organization formed around the magazine "Proryv". During 2024, the parties repeatedly substantiated their arguments. The demarcation took place. To work, comrades, and practice will show who is who.
Therefore, there is reason to congratulate our organization on yet another dotting of the i's. There is not the slightest reason for despondency for those who continue to implement their personal, intense plans for self-education in the field of Marxism-Leninism and propaganda of achievements on this path. But there is reason to sympathize with those who have chosen the path trodden by a host of leftist bloggers and creators of a series of hastily cobbled together "parties" with communist names, but without Marxist content.
Podguzov, Petrova, Redin
https://prorivists.org/101_nw/
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