India

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Re: India

Post by blindpig » Thu Mar 31, 2022 1:52 pm

Nearly 200 million people went on strike in India
03/29/2022
The mass nature and organization of the protests make the demands of the workers more convincing

On March 28 and 29, 2022, a nationwide strike took place in India, organized by a number of large trade unions, TASS reports with reference to the Press Trust of India news agency. Among the demands of the protesters is the rejection of the privatization of state-owned enterprises, an increase in wages, a "fair distribution" of income and equal rights for workers. According to the organizers, about 200 million employees of the postal, transport, telecommunications, banking, energy, oil refining and metallurgy enterprises took part in the action.

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“We expect the participation of more than 200 million workers, massive mobilization across the country during the strike on March 28 and 29 to protest government policies,” Amarjit Kaur , general secretary of the All India Congress of Trade Unions, said on Monday .

Indian workers are actively using strikes as a tool to defend their rights, put pressure on owners and the state. Here are just a few examples of resistance:

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*in July 2020, workers in the coal industry stopped working; requirements – cancellation of privatization;
*in July 2020, workers at an oil refinery in Andhra Pradesh went on strike; they were not stopped even by the dismissal of a third of the employees of Ruchi Soya Industries Ltd ;
*in the fall of 2020, 82,000 workers from 41 factories went on strike ; the requirement is the abolition of corporatization of state-owned enterprises;
*from autumn 2020 to December 2021, Indian farmers protested ; the government had to make concessions and repeal previously adopted laws;
*in March 2021, a strike organized by nine trade unions was announced by bank employees; the requirement is to cancel the decision to privatize two state-owned banks.

Of particular note is the 2020 nationwide strike against right-wing liberal laws, which was attended by nearly 250 million Indians. Such mass character and organization significantly “strengthen the arguments” of the protesters.

Protesting workers in India

Such impressive results cannot be achieved "at the snap of a finger." This is preceded by many years of work on the self-organization of workers, the explanation in labor collectives of the true causes of poverty of ordinary people. It is clear that this process is accelerated by the concentration of production, the real poverty and hunger of millions of Indians.

In Russia, fortunately, the degree of poverty of the population has not yet reached such a level as in India. But that's just for now. Domestic owners are "working hard on this." In order not to reach the poverty of ordinary Indians, our working people need to unite today.

https://www.rotfront.su/v-indii-na-zaba ... o-200-mln/

Google Translator

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Millions strike in India against Modi government’s policies

The last two years have seen a further deterioration of the living standards of working people in India due to the pandemic and the lack of enough policy interventions by the Modi government.

March 30, 2022 by Peoples Dispatch



Around 200 million industrial workers, employees, farmers and agricultural laborers observed a two-day general strike in India on March 28 and 29. The strike is a challenge by working people to the far-right Narendra Modi government as well as a fight to save the people’s future and save the country.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2022/03/30/ ... -policies/
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Re: India

Post by blindpig » Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:38 am

CP of India, NO TO NATO FOR PEACE AND JUST WORLD ORDER
3/31/22 3:53 PM

NO TO NATO FOR PEACE AND JUST WORLD ORDER

D. RAJA, General Secretary CPI.

Amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, one organization has come to focus that is NATO. This organization can be seen all over the conflict. This infamous organization is the North Atlantic Treaty Association commonly referred to as NATO. Formed in the aftermath of the Second World War, NATO’s formation was the response of the Western world to the rise of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). As a planned socialist economy, the USSR made rapid all-round progress. The blood and sweat of Russians ultimately triumphed over the abominable ideology of Nazism and fascism. The red flag in Berlin made the capitalists uneasy and insecure the world over.

Thus, the imperialist powers evolved a strategy to contain the avalanche of socialist ideology and the NATO became its military instrument. NATO began as a military partnership between the leading capitalist nations of the world led by the United States of America ostensibly for ‘collective security’ but its real motive always remained encircling the USSR and other socialist states in East and Central Europe. The West made a narrative that Western Europe is under a military threat from the Soviet Union. But it should be noted here that the USSR led Warsaw Pact came into existence only after NATO integrated West Germany and started weaponizing the region in order to resist the decolonization process and the freedom struggles of the colonies. USSR was supporting the national liberation movements during that critical period.

With the disintegration of the USSR in early 90s and collapse of other socialist regimes in Eastern and Central Europe, even the raison d'être of NATO ceased to exist. Instead of dissolving this military body, imperialists sought to refashion it as a medium to realize the United States’ hegemonic ambitions. The countervailing force of the USSR had gone and the US was trying to impose a unipolar world order.

NATO soon adopted to these developments, and instead of dissolving, it started to expand acting as the long military arm of US imperialism. NATO’s expansion and interventions have created humanitarian crises one after the other. Destruction and instability have been NATO’s footprints everywhere it went on the globe. It should be underlined here that NATO did not militarily intervene formally even once in the so-called Cold War era. It’s interventions and rapid expansion started only after the disintegration of the USSR, clearly indicating the ulterior motives behind the existence of NATO, the perpetuation of US hegemony. Naturally so, anything that comes between hegemonic aspirations of the US is a potential NATO enemy. Western leaders assured Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO will not move even 1cm east but even after repeated warning signs, NATO kept expanding and now it has 30 member states in the place of the original 12 and all the members of the erstwhile Warsaw Pact except Russia are now NATO members.

A casual follow-up of NATO’s involvements on the global stage after the disintegration of the USSR will give us some perspective on how this organization has acted as the grim oppressor and exploiter in many parts of the world. NATO’s involvement in Kosovo is well known. Their stated justification for the Kosovo campaign was to support "the political aims of the international community: a peaceful, multiethnic and democratic Kosovo in which all its people can live in security and enjoy universal human rights and freedoms on an equal basis." This intervention came at some humanitarian cost with over 500 civilians lost their lives due to NATO’s indiscriminate bombing. Those injured were more than 6000. During the eleven-week long bombing of Kosovo, NATO did not hesitate in bombing the Chinese Embassy causing international furor. Cluster Munition was used by NATO in the bombing of former Yugoslavia.

Again, NATO was a major force in the debacle of Afghanistan. During the War in Afghanistan, according to the Costs of War Project led by the University of Brown 1,76,000 people died in Afghanistan during 2001-2019. Among them at least 46,319 were civilians. These figures are not reflective of the true picture though as they do not account for deaths by disease, loss of access to food, water, infrastructure, and/or other consequences of the war. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program pegs the casualties in Afghanistan at 2,12,191 people. Similarly, the US led intervention in Iraq resulted in over

1,50,000 violent deaths since March 2003 to 2010, with more than 1,22,000 (80%) of them being civilians according to Iraq Body Count after the release of Iraq War Logs by WikiLeaks. As per Air Wars, NATO’s intervention in Libya to enforce a no-fly zone killed more than 400 civilians.

Putting it bluntly, direct war-deaths in major war zones of Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen etc. in the last two decades are close to 1 million including around 4,00,000 civilians. These numbers, as one can expect are an understatement of the horrors of NATO’s involvement in the respective areas since these figures do not cover indirect deaths, migration, injuries, loss to property, psychological damage or geopolitical instability. The US-led formidable military machinery of the NATO is equipped with a state-of-the-art arsenal. One has reasons to have apprehensions about this organization, especially when its knocking on one’s borders. NATO member countries had a combined defense expenditure of $1.036 trillion in 2019 compared to roughly $60 billions of Russia, with which NATO members are ostensibly is in conflict due to developments in Ukraine.

From the above description, it is easier to put NATO and its role on the globe in its proper perspective. Once the deterrence given by USSR was out, NATO quickly became an instrument to achieve the United States’ foreign and defense policy objectives in Europe initially and then extended the blanket to Asia. NATO’s continuous expansion and involvement in world affairs is a threat to global peace and a just world-order.

A body of the size and influence of NATO, with its 30 members accounting for close to 60% of global defense expenditure enjoys a disproportionate advantage and mastery over international scene by merely its existence. With no countervailing force present, USSR gone, NATO has been operating with complete impunity for the last 3 decades in a supposed unipolar world order led by the NATO boss, the USA. Peace loving people, states and various regions of the Global South should be opposed to the very idea of such a military alliance for it thoroughly distorts the level playing field at the international level where every nation state is supposed to be equal.

As NATO’s track record suggests, instead of ‘collective security’, it has offered grave insecurity to nations opposed the US interests and has filled the coffers of military-industrial complexes, monopolies effectively diverting funds from vital programs for the improvement of the livelihood of the people.

The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is rooted in this expansionary logic of the military alliance, Ukraine being its theatre. We oppose the ongoing war in no uncertain terms, it should be stopped forthwith and parties should engage in dialogue. At the same time, NATO is the puppeteer behind not just this, but many more conflicts globally and its interventions have proved to be too costly for humanity and the working classes. If peace is to prevail on the globe, NATO should go.

http://solidnet.org/article/CP-of-India ... RLD-ORDER/

CP of India, Roll Back Incessant Hike of Prices of Petro Products
3/31/22 3:52 PM

Roll Back Incessant Hike of Prices of Petro Products

CPI Calls for Nation-wide Protest from April 4 to 10, 2022

The National Secretariat of the Communist Party of India issued the following statement today (on March 31, 2022):

The National Secretariat of the Communist Party of India condemns the incessant hikes in fuel prices and demands the government should immediately intervene and roll back the prices. Today (on March 31, 2022) the prices are hiked again for the ninth time in the last 10 days.

The price of petrol will now cross Rs 100 per litre across all states and that of diesel will touch almost Rs 100. Residents of Mumbai will have to shell out Rs 116.72 per a litre of petrol and Rs 100.94 per a litre of diesel making Mumbai rates the highest among the metro cities.

The Party wants the people to realise that the rates were kept on hold amid the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur to amass votes.

Even the piped gas meant for cooking along with LPG prices have also been hiked. All those incessant moves prove that the RSS-BJP government has no concern for the sufferings of the people. The Modi government even ignores the fact that such moves will have a cascading effect on the prices of all essential items of daily life.

The Party demands immediate roll back of such hikes and reiterates its stand that administered price mechanism needs to be brought back. It also urges the government to intervene and make oil marketing companies to realise that prices of such essential items of daily life cannot be left to the whims of OMCs.

The National Secretariat calls upon all party units to organise a week-long protest from April 4 to 10, independently and jointly with other likeminded parties wherever possible.

http://solidnet.org/article/CP-of-India ... -Products/

Keep them protests coming...(strike while the iron is hot)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: India

Post by blindpig » Wed Apr 06, 2022 2:14 pm

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India: Massive Participation Seen Across Sectors in 2-Day Nationwide Strike by Trade Unions
April 5, 2022

Anger is growing among the workforce across public and private sectors as well as scheme workers over the Modi government’s policies, said the Joint Forum.

New Delhi: The two-day nationwide strike on March 28-29, called by 10 central trade unions (CTUs), saw widespread participation across sectors “despite the threats of victimisation and intimidation by the employers as well as the governments.”

From banks and insurance to railways, ports, telecom, coal mines, refineries to transport, tea gardens to scheme workers — all sections of the working population came out on the streets to express their anger against PSU privatisation, dilution of labour laws, contractualisation of jobs, new pension scheme, lack of social security, price rise, falling incomes among others and pledged to intensify their fight to “Save the Nation and Save the People”

“The participation crossed 20 crores (the first day itself) facing all odds, ESMA, intimidation, and obstructions of all kinds including the high handedness of police in some cases and high court order in Kerala prohibiting strike for BPCL and Govt. employees,” a statement by the joint platform said.

The central trade unions that are part of the joint forum are INTUC, AITUC, HMS, CITU, AIUTUC, TUCC, SEWA, AICCTU, LPF and UTUC.

“The huge success of the two days’ general strike is an unambiguous warning to the Modi led BJP government, gloating over its recent electoral victories, that the workers and toiling people of this country are not going to tolerate its pro corporate and pro Super Rich neoliberal policies that enrich these exploiters by putting unbearable burdens on the toiling masses; that it cannot go ahead handing over the country’s wealth and resources including natural resources to the big corporates, domestic and foreign,” said a statement by CITU.

The strike call by trade unions was backed by the Samyukt Kisan Morcha, an umbrella body of over 40 farmer organisations that spearheaded the year-long farmers’ movement against three Central farm laws. Agricutural workers also participated in the strike call by joining in road blockades in several states.

“Workers in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh have joined the strike on the second day in addition to the workforce of the state on the agitation on Monday. Workers in almost all sectors have joined the strike. We got a good response from the rural band,” Amarjeet Kaur, General Secretary of All India Trade Union Congress (AITUC), told PTI.

The 12-point charter of demands of the striking unions include scrapping of the four labour codes, no privatisation in any form, scrapping of National Monetisation Pipeline, increased allocation of wages under MNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Act) and regularisation of contract workers.

"There is a bandh-like situation in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Assam, Haryana and Jharkhand,” the forum said.

According to the forum, agitations were held in many industrial areas across Goa, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Bihar, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.

Workers staged protests at several places and unions claimed the agitation had an impact in coal mining belts of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh on Monday.

“Private sector industrial units including many MNCs witnessed massive strike action on both the days in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Telangana and Haryana. Hydel power projects also witnessed massive strike in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand and Jammu & Kashmir,” the statement read.

HARYANA: WOMEN TAKE THE LEAD IN MILLENNIUM CITY

In Gurugram, 36-year-old Renu, a cook-cum-helper, whose normal work day is from 7 a.m till late afternoon at a government primary school in Gurugram’s Chakkarpur village. After that, she manages a small embroidery business at home. Yet, the mother of two finds it difficult to make ends meet.

“My honorarium” – being considered as a volunteer under PM Poshan, earlier known as school Mid-Day Meal Scheme, she is not entitled to ‘wages’ – “is only Rs. 3,500. You tell me, how should I run my house in such a paltry income? There is not enough of embroidery work since the last many months,” she told Newsclick.

Renu is among the lakhs of scheme workers – anganwadi workers and helpers, mid-day meal workers, and ASHAs, among others – who has been at the forefront to provide supplementary food and nutrition along with health services to women and children in the country.

On Tuesday, Renu joined rallies and meetings by the all-women workforce to press the Centre to consider them as ‘government employees’ – it is a demand that has been pending for far too many years now.

In the millennium city, known to house top MNCs and industrial houses, the scheme workers, emboldened by an ongoing work strike of the anganwadi workers and helpers in the State, took the lead in protesting against the economic policies of the Narendra Modi – led Central Government.

They were joined by industrial workers and state government employees, among others, who gathered at a public meeting in Kamla Nehru Park on Tuesday.

“Today, we are not just protesting for the issues of one or two sections of the workers… it is fight for the whole working class in the country,” said Sarla Yadav, an anganwadi worker. The 42-year-old has been on strike, along with her “comrades”, since December 8 last year to demand, among others, an increment in their monthly honorarium –promised to them by the Central governemnt in 2018.

She was served a termination notice by the Manohar Lal Khattar – led BJP government in January this year, in a move that was flayed by the anganwadi caregivers’ unions in the State as a “repressive action.”

“For last four months, with no income, I am depended only on help from neighbours and my relatives to support my family,” said the mother of a daughter, adding that “the present government does not think about the welfare of the workers.”

The anger and despair among the workers was palpable. Ankit Lal (name changed) of one Sanoh India Private Limited, an automotive part manufacturer in Manesar that supplies auto components to Maruti Suzuki, said the rolling out of labour codes will make permanent jobs in the industrial sector a thing of past.

“Since 2000, not even a single worker has been regularised in the factory,” Lal alleged, adding that, as a result of which, only a fourth of the total manpower in the company is a permanent worker currently.

Highlighting similar concerns, A R Sindhu, national secretary, Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU), said the trade union movement in the industrial sector had been “dull” for the past few years in the country. “Yet, what we are seeing right now is that this trend is taking a new turn, finding encouragement from struggles waged over the years by scheme workers.”

Satbir Singh, state vice president, CITU – Haryana agreed that “women of Haryana are very close in bringing the State government down on its knees”.

Ronak Chhabra from Gurugram



MAHARASHTRA: GOOD RESPONSE

In Mumbai Mahul’s thousands of residents held ‘Jan Jagaran Yatra’ in Mahul, Mankhurd, Chembur, Shivajinagar area of Mumbai in support of the striking workers. People walking from lane to lane receiving support from citizens. The outrage over killing inflation was visible in Mumbai’s working class areas that house families of street vendors, naka kamgar, helpers etc.

“People are realising that the common man is the victim of policies of Modi government. From inflation to ending security to labourers as well as various schemes of social security. The response to our rallies was tremendous on both days,” said Jagdish Khairaliya, general secretary of Shramik Seva Sangh.

Mumbai is the financial capital of India. All the nationalised banks near Dalal Street were running on low capacity for two days.

“Modi government will have to repeal the four anti-labour laws, which are killing the voice of labourers and helping crony capitalists ignore labour rights. People need to stand up against these changes for their and their children’s future,” said Vishwas Utagi, leader of a bank employees union.

Anganwadi workers also came out on both days as they have been protesting for hike in honorarium, pension, quality mobile phones, user friendly app to fill information about their work etc.

Industrial towns like Nasik, Aurangabad, Pune, Pimpri Chinchwad also seen effect of strike. CITU leaders like DL Karad, Vasant Pawar, Rajani Pisal, Shubha Shamim and others lead the strike in Nasik and Pune.

CPM MLA Vinod Nikole joined the protest in Dahanu. On Tuesday, a rasta roko was held at multiple locations in Palghar district. Hundreds of labourers and farmers joined the protest. All India Kisan Sabha also participated in Nasik, Ahmednagar, Sangali, Solapur in the national strike.

Former MLA Narasayya Aadam led the morcha of bidi workers and workers in mills in Solapur, who attended in large numbers. “Over the years I have seen that the labourers join hands firmly when the attack in their rights increases. Recent developments of new labour laws are attacks on labourers interests. This strong movement will reach all corners of India,” said Aadam.

Amey Tirodkar from Mumbai



TAMIL NADU: WORKERS PROTEST IN LARGE NUMBERS

Many sectors were on halt for the second consecutive day in Tamil Nadu. The massive participation of state transport corporation workers for two days in a row has shaken up the state. The big participation of ICDS workers in the all-India general strike also had a big impact in the state.

Many demonstrations were held in industrial belts across the state in industrial localities in North Chennai – Thiruvatriyur, Ambattur and Perambur, and Kanchipuram for the second day in a row.

While the participation of workers dropped in several sectors, there was an increase in some others. The participation of DMK-affiliated union workers fell on the second day. Maximum participation was from CITU and AITUC.

Around one lakh members of the Tamil Nadu Government Employees Association of 64 departments boycotted work on the second day. Workers from the revenue department participated in big numbers. Others included employees of the departments of rural development, agriculture, social welfare, etc.

On the second day of the strike, around 50,000 bank employees associated with BEFI, AIBOA and AIBEA went on strike in Tamil Nadu, while under the leadership of AIIEA and LICAO, 92% of insurance and LIC workers boycotted work and held demonstrations.

Tuticorin Port was on complete strike today for the second day. The 500 permanent workers, 750 contract workers and 1,000 odd private shipping company workers boycotted work. The workers restricted entry of all lorries and voiced their anger against the Union government’s move to privatise ports in the country.

In the highly profitable pharma sector, under the leadership of FMRAI, around 10,000 sales promotion employees across Tamil Nadu went on strike today.

Around 30% of the workers of the union government run power sector Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) were on strike in Trichy today.

Sruti MD from Chennai



WEST BENGAL: ORGANISED, UNORGANISED SECTOR WORKERS JOIN

The two-day strike call was effective in most part of the state, both among the organised and unorganised sectors, especially in the jute sector where 26 out of 52 mills were completely closed.

Bus services in Kolkata were more or less normal. However, in other districts, bus services were affected as nearly 100% bus workers joined the strike.

Engineering units Howrah district remained closed despite large scale police mobilisation by the state government to foil the Bharat Bandh call.

In West Bengal’s tea gardens, over 60% units remained closed and in the other units 60% of workers ditched work, according to sources in the Centre of Indian Trade Unions.

CITU sources said Eveready Batteries, a big manufacturing unit, remained completely closed, while workers in Britannia, Lipton, ITC, Indian Oil, Oil India and other big corporates also joined the strike in varying numbers.

About 65% of hosiery units remained closed and in the case of Braithwaite, Burn Standard, Jessop Construction, United Paints, Hind Ice remained closed.

All major markets, such as Barabazaar , Posta Chandni Chowk , New Market also remained closed. The police arrested 17 persons from central Kolkata for picketing during the strike.

According to CITRU sources, the strike was 100% in the banking and financial sector, 90% in Central units in the state, such as income tax department, postal services, Botanical Survey, Geological Survey etc.

In Darjeeling district, over 60% success was seen in the tea sector, while in Jalpaiguri district over 65 % tea gardens were closed. In Alipurduar , the strike was a 70% success, while in North Dinajpur over 50% units remained closed .

Over 30% coal workers joined the strike, as also in Durgapur steel plant and Burnpur Iisco.

Even 62% Ola and Uber cab drivers joined the strike, as per CITU

Sandip Chakraborty from Kolkata



ASSAM: SECOND DAY OF DETENTIONS AND PROTESTS

For the second consecutive day, a massive bandh was witnessed across Assam, including Guwahati, with almost complete absence of public transport on the roads. Different sectors including refinery unions, tea workers’ union along with the CTUs organised protest demonstrations, rallies, sit-ins and picketing in different parts of the state.

Reports of detention of peaceful protesters were reported from several places. At Sarupeta in Barpeta district protesters were detained at the Sarupeta police station for several hours.

Similarly, at Rangia of Kamrup district, several protesters were detained by police while taking out a protest rally.

Nirangkush Nath, a student leader, said at majority of places across the state, police resorted to detention of the protestors. Despite this, protestors were high in spirit, adding that “we have seen a successful completion of the all-India general strike.”

The refinery unions, tea garden workers’ union, Assam roofings’ workers’ union bank employees also held protests, sit ins, picketing at several places.

Sandipan Talukdar from Guwahati

https://orinocotribune.com/india-massiv ... ctus-ends/

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Controversial Hijab ban in India a form of “religious apartheid”

Many fear that the headscarf ban in educational institutions will intensify persecution of minority groups by far-right Hindu nationalists forces within the country

April 05, 2022 by Umer Beigh

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The verdict by a court in the Indian State of Karnataka in mid-March against the wearing of headscarves or the Hijab across colleges, preventing Muslim girls from entering educational premises with a certain dress code, has created a political furor in the country.

Since the verdict was announced on March 15, several protest actions have been carried out such as a complete strike in the State of Karnataka on March 17.

For many women activists the verdict is seen as a major disappointment and betrayal by the judicial system. Many fear that the “headscarf ban” will only add to the growing hostility against the minority Muslim community and further the selective targeting of Muslim women in online hate campaigns.

Teenager Aliya Assadi was among the students who filed the petition challenging the decision of the Karnataka government to prescribe a uniform in educational institutions. The petition had argued that the decision goes against the right to education and the right to practice one’s faith as guaranteed in the Indian constitution.

The affected girl students had placed their hope in the judiciary and the constitution, but it was a “case of betrayal for us,” Aliya told reporters.

“I was made to realize I am a Muslim… I had read on social media the discrimination that Muslims in the country face but now I have experienced it for the first time,” 19-year-old student Al-Rifa said after she was barred from entering the Bhandarkar’s college in Karnataka wearing a headscarf.

Similarly, many other students who have been wearing the headscarf as part of their “religious obligation” have now been asked to remove them if they want to attend lectures. “The administration isn’t allowing us inside the classes if we don’t remove the hijab, personally for me it is weird. We were first optimistic that the court would favor our pleas. Unfortunately, the political pressure created in the country by different forces is so high even the courts are favoring the majority without realizing the complications it will have for us,” 16-year-old Sana told local media.

The Hijab row
In January, a major controversy erupted in the Udupi district of Karnataka when a government-run college stopped six teenage girls wearing headscarves from attending classes claiming that it violated school uniform guidelines.

The restriction invoked protests in the campus by the students which spread to other educational institutions. The hijab-wearing students demonstrated for days outside the gates of the college. While the administration later allowed them inside the campus, they were made to sit in separate classrooms with no lectures organized for them.

Amid the rising tensions, a number of Hindu far-right groups rallied in support of the restrictions imposed on Muslim women saying that if the administration permits Hijabs inside schools, Hindu students should also be allowed to wear saffron shawls (a color used by Hindu nationalists).

Some of the protests in campuses and in some other States were disrupted by the police which triggered stone pelting incidents and tear gas shelling on the crowds.

The controversy became so intense that the Karnataka State authorities had to shut down schools and colleges for three days and restrict gatherings near educational institutions for two weeks.

Online hate campaigns
The ban on wearing the Hijab is being viewed as a coercive way to force Muslim women to renounce their religious practices and adhere to the majoritarian identity which is slowly becoming synonymous with the Hindu identity.

According to Tayyaba Ahmad, a geography student at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, the communal ‘Jai Shri Ram’ chants by Hindutva supporters during the Hijab row inside campuses in Karnataka reinforced the narrative that right-wing Hindu nationalists want the minorities cornered and submissive and accept the religious hegemony in the country.

Several commentators have called the Hijab controversy a political gimmick by far-right Hindu nationalist groups to spread propaganda under the pretext of fighting extremism, turning the agency of Muslim women as a cannon fodder for a certain political agenda.

“There is no concept of respecting the agency of the women, they aren’t given this choice by far-right Hindu groups who continue to exploit the victimization of Muslim women in order to amplify their narrative of Hindutva which excludes minorities,” Tayyaba told Peoples Dispatch.

There has been a pattern of online hate campaigns filled with communal slurs and misogynist bullying from radical Hindu right-wing groups targeting Muslims women in India. One example is the fake online app Bulli Bai, a derogatory Hindi term used by right-wing misogynists to describe Muslim women in the country.

The fake auction app listed around 100 women for ‘sale’, including journalists, actors, artists, activists and several other noted figures. Most of the women targeted through the app have been outspoken critics of prime minister Narendra Modi and his government. Prior to this app, another auction list insulting Muslim women appeared in July 2021 on a web application named Sulli Deals, which remained available for weeks before it was taken down.

Likewise, in another attempt to target Muslim women, a right-wing Hindutva YouTube channel called Liberal Doge Live streamed photos of Muslim women on the festival of Eid with a description in Hindi saying: “Today, we will stalk women with our eyes filled with lust.”

Such controversies that polarize society are nothing but another attempt to saffronize Indian society and polity. As journalist Subhash Gatade wrote, “it is an attempt to show Muslims their place in ‘New India’. The issue hit national headlines, sending a message that the days of Sarv Dharm Sambhav are over; India has decisively entered the phase of Hindu Rashtra, wherein minorities live on the sufferance of the majority or “thanks to the kindness and generosity of Hindus.”

“Earlier the attacks on women belonging to minority communities would come from passive sources. Today it is open, direct and blatantly communal,” Tayyaba remarked.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2022/04/05/ ... apartheid/

(Articles on Pakistan moved to new thread.)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: India

Post by blindpig » Thu Apr 14, 2022 1:51 pm

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M.K. Stalin and Pinarayi Vijayan at the CPI(M)’s congress. (Photo: Twitter/@mkstalin)

‘After all, my name is Stalin’: in a Speech at CPI(M) Congress, a roadmap to counter BJP
Originally published: The Wire by Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta (April 11, 2022 ) | - Posted Apr 13, 2022

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) supremo and Tamil Nadu chief minister M.K.Stalin’s remark at the Communist Party of India (Marxist)’s 23rd party congress–“after all, my name is Stalin”–may well go down in history as a harbinger of a new ideological camaraderie between communists and Dravidian parties.

This is especially significant as it comes at a time when the Bharatiya Janata Party’s political dominance in large parts of India reduces the visibility of the diverse shades of Indian politics.

Speaking at a seminar on ‘Centre-state relations,’ and delivering what was a scathing critique of the BJP-led Union government’s alleged proclivity towards centralisation of power, Stalin started out in Malayalam–much to the joy of the crowd which cheered heartily–and gradually transitioned to Tamil. Stalin evoked the historical relationship between Dravidian parties and communists, even as he emphasised upon building a larger political alliance to secure constitutional guarantees made to the states in the Indian Union.

“The relationship between the Dravidian parties and the communists dates back to the beginning of the last century. It was Periyar who translated the Communist Manifesto into Tamil. We (Tamizhians) had a tradition to name kids after the Russian revolutionaries… After all, my name is Stalin. Do I need to state anything beyond this to prove our relationship?” asked the Tamil Nadu chief minister.

As the CPI(M) prepared for the party congress between April 6 and 10 at Kannur in Kerala, Stalin’s presence at a seminar of the four-day event, had assumed political significance. Although the DMK has been fighting Tamil Nadu elections in alliance with Left parties, the two political forces have mostly been critical of each other ever since DMK first rode to power in 1967.

With both the Left Front government in Kerala and DMK-led Tamil Nadu government at the forefront of opposing the Union government’s tendency for greater centralisation, the meeting of the two forces at the CPI(M)’s congress signals the possibility of a long-term ideological alliance against the BJP.

“Let’s create a truly federal India,” Stalin appealed at the party congress.

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M.K. Stalin speaks at the CPI(M)’s congress. (Photo: Twitter/@mkstalin)

“The founders of our constitution didn’t create a unitary, monolithic government. The subjects over which they exercise power were separated into three, and placed under the Union List, the State List and the Concurrent List. Further, after the passing of the Panchayat Raj Act, local self-government bodies were given rights, and powers were devolved to them. Hence, villages must grow. With the growth of villages, the State would prosper, and with the growth of States, the nation would flourish,” he said.

He made his political agenda clearer in the very next sentence.

The Union government is bent on decimating the powers of the villages and States of India. This is antithetical to the Constitution of India.

He said that the Union government has “breached the jurisdiction defined by the Indian Constitution and is encroaching on the powers of the states,” with the intention to expand BJP’s political reach and corner BJP’s political opponents.

In what may provoke a debate, Stalin said,

Even the British who ruled over India did not set out to create such an all-powerful unitary structure as is being done now.

“Even in the Government of India Act 1919, it was said that the self-government in provinces must be such that the interests of the locality and the provinces were taken care of. It was also said that the Union government must oversee and govern the unified framework of such provinces,” he argued.

“I explicitly accuse the Union Government of having a tendency to concentrate powers with an intent to subjugate the States and local bodies, something that even the British didn’t undertake,” the chief minister said.

He quoted Mahatma Gandhi and Bhagat Singh to emphasis upon the importance of federalism in a free India.

“States are responsible for the wellbeing of its residents and are actively undertaking efforts towards such an end. If our rulers in Delhi derive joy in subjugating and making the states crawl before them–isn’t that treachery against the people? Is that not an act of exacting revenge from them? Under the impression that they were exacting revenge from the states, they are exacting revenge from the people,” Stalin remarked, as he likened the implementation of GST, dissolution of the Planning Commission and the National Development Council as attempts by the BJP-led Union government to subjugate states and make poor resource allocations.

“All acts are now legislated without any debate. Parliament is now devoid of any special, meaningful debates and there are no appropriate answers to any questions raised. The government in Delhi acts in a manner that is accountable to none. The Union BJP government is now operating with impunity and thirst for power, to control even the co-operative societies in our villages,” the DMK supremo said.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks in the Lok Sabha in New Delhi, Monday, Feb. 7, 2022. (Photo: SANSAD TV/PTI)

He went on to lampoon the BJP for allegedly misusing the governor’s office for political ends, taking partisan executive action with impunity while holding constitutional principles at stake.

“In Tamil Nadu, the NEET bills, passed twice by the constitutionally-elected legislature, have not been sent to the President by the Governor who is engaging in delaying tactics. Is he acting in accordance with the Constitution? It is not just the NEET Bills, there are 11 bills in the hands of the Governor. What is the reason for him not acting upon them,” he asked, asserting that the ‘nominated’ governor’s office in most states has been overruling decisions made by elected governments.

He narrated what the former West Bengal chief minister and CPI(M) stalwart, the late Jyoti Basu, had said about an uncooperative governor.

He has created a killing field with an intent to kill democracy point blank–and has transformed the state into a practice field for experimenting with his wrongful political experiments.

Almost immediately, he spoke about what his father M. Karunanidhi had said,

Muthamizh Arignar Kalaignar who ruled Tamil Nadu for five terms said, ‘Several paradoxes and problems persist in Indian politics for the sole reason that states are not given the powers’.

He went on to speak about how Dravidian ideologue C.N. Annadurai and the first elected communist chief minister of India E.M.S Namboodiripad had also found the Centre and governor’s role impeding the chief minister’s functions.

“The moment we legislate for improving the life of the poor, vulnerable and subjugated or talk about educational rights, or articulate our views about the culture of South India or speak on the principle of equality, they would throw a spanner into the works and disrupt the proceedings,” Stalin said.

As he ended, he said that to overcome such “active efforts of disruption”, the states need to form a collective “to fight, to resist”. He also called for amendments in the Indian constitution to “bestow more power to states”.

“During my recent visit to Delhi, in an interview given to PTI news agency, I had insisted upon the need for such a unity. I had then said,

In Tamil Nadu, we have organised the secular forces as a unitary front. We function, not just as political parties dividing the constituencies among ourselves during the times of election, but also safeguard and sustain the relationship built on ideological grounds. This forms the bedrock of our victory.

“To safeguard the diversity of India, the principle of federalism, democracy, secularism, equality, fraternity, state’s rights and educational rights, we must set aside political differences and come together as one,” the DMK leader appealed. He signed off by saying “Red salute, comrades”.

https://mronline.org/2022/04/13/after-a ... unter-bjp/
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Re: India

Post by blindpig » Mon Apr 18, 2022 2:03 pm

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US Suddenly Pretends to Care About Rights Abuses in India
April 16, 2022
By Caitlin Johntsone – Apr 12, 2022

The United States is suddenly very concerned about human rights violations in India, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken telling the press on Monday that “we are monitoring some recent concerning developments in India including a rise in human rights abuses by some government, police and prison officials.”

While it is true that India’s right-wing government is guilty of human rights abuses and has been for years, it is also true that the US State Department does not actually care about human rights abuses.

A leaked State Department memo from the early days of the Trump administration showed neoconservative empire manager Brian Hook teaching a previously uninitiated Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that for the US government, “human rights” are only a weapon to be used for keeping other nations in line. In a remarkable insight into the cynical nature of imperial narrative management, Hook told Tillerson that it is US policy to overlook human rights abuses committed by nations aligned with US interests while exploiting and weaponizing them against nations who aren’t.

“In the case of US allies such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Philippines, the Administration is fully justified in emphasizing good relations for a variety of important reasons, including counter-terrorism, and in honestly facing up to the difficult tradeoffs with regard to human rights,” Hook explained in the memo.

“One useful guideline for a realistic and successful foreign policy is that allies should be treated differently—and better—than adversaries,” Hook wrote. “We do not look to bolster America’s adversaries overseas; we look to pressure, compete with, and outmaneuver them. For this reason, we should consider human rights as an important issue in regard to US relations with China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. And this is not only because of moral concern for practices inside those countries. It is also because pressing those regimes on human rights is one way to impose costs, apply counter-pressure, and regain the initiative from them strategically.”

No, the US State Department does not care about human rights abuses. Blinken’s remarks are just the latest in a series of shots across the bow that the US empire has been firing at New Delhi to warn it against moving into alignment with Moscow.

In an article last week titled “India to Face Significant Cost If Aligned With Russia, US Says,” Bloomberg reported the following:

President Joe Biden’s top economic adviser said the administration has warned India against aligning itself with Russia, and that US officials have been “disappointed” with some of New Delhi’s reaction to the Ukraine invasion.

“There are certainly areas where we have been disappointed by both China and India’s decisions, in the context of the invasion,” the director of the White House National Economic Council, Brian Deese, told reporters at a breakfast Wednesday hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

The US has told India that the consequences of a “more explicit strategic alignment” with Moscow would be “significant and long-term,” he said.


This new tone is a significant shift from the jovial relations between India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Trump administration, or even between Modi and the Biden administration as recently as last year. Just yesterday Biden made it clear in a call with Modi that it would be against India’s interests to increase its oil imports from Russia. Reuters reports that Biden “told Modi India’s position in the world would not be enhanced by relying on Russian energy sources,” according to US officials.

“The president conveyed very clearly that it is not in their interest to increase that,” White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said when asked about India’s imports of Russian oil.

We can expect to see more and more feigned concern about Indian human rights abuses from the US government if these increasingly unsubtle messages are disobeyed, with destructive acts of economic sabotage soon to follow.

The US empire is correct to be concerned about a potential future Indian pivot out of Washington’s sphere of influence. While it has succeeded thus far in weaponizing New Delhi in its grand chessboard maneuverings against China, the world’s two most populous nations uniting with the Russian nuclear superpower in the emerging bloc of nations who are rejecting absorption into the US-centralized power structure would be disastrous for the empire.

But the fact that the US sees it as its business who foreign nations choose to align with reveals its true dynamic on the world stage, and makes a mockery of the lip service this empire has been paying to the importance of respecting national sovereignty in its narrative management about Ukraine. The US is the single most tyrannical regime on earth, using whatever amount of violence, coercion and bullying are necessary in its efforts to bring the entire planet under its lasting control.

This empire truly believes it has a right to rule the world, and that no nation has a right to refuse it. The re-emergence of a true multipolar world is crashing headlong into an imperial doctrine that demands securing unipolar domination at all cost, and it’s getting very ugly very fast.

https://orinocotribune.com/us-suddenly- ... -in-india/
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Re: India

Post by blindpig » Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:31 pm

When communists stood in the way of the right wing’s bulldozer in India

On April 20, communist activists in India physically prevented the demolition of shops in a Muslim-dominated area in New Delhi. The demolition drive had been continuing despite a court order staying it

April 25, 2022 by Pavan Kulkarni

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CPI(M) Polit Bureau member Brinda Karat and other left leaders and cadre block a bulldozer from continuing the demolition of shops in the locality of Jahangirpuri in New Delhi.
On Wednesday, April 20, leaders and cadre of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [(CPIM)] and other left parties physically blocked a bulldozer commandeered by the North Delhi Municipal Corporation (NDMC) to stop the illegal demolition drive targeting small shops, mostly owned by Muslims, in Jahangirpuri, a working class neighborhood of India’s capital.

Despite the Supreme Court’s order against the demolition earlier in the morning, the NDMC, controlled by the far-right Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which is also in power in the Center, continued the demolitions for around two hours. It was supported by the Delhi police, which is controlled by the Home Ministry of the central government.

The NMDC and the police were forced to stop only after 74-year-old CPI(M) Polit Bureau member Brinda Karat, along with Rajeev Kunwar from the party’s Delhi State Secretariat and others, blocked the bulldozer by putting their bodies in its way, waving the court order at the cops.


This demolition drive in Jahangirpuri came after several BJP leaders called for it after the religious violence that rocked the area on April 16. It followed a pattern witnessed this month in several BJP-ruled States where bulldozers followed on the heels of such violent incidents, mostly provoked by far-right groups’ threatening processions into Muslim neighborhoods under the guise of Hindu religious celebrations.

The violence in the Muslim-majority Jahangirpuri area also broke out after the far-right wing Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and its youth organization called the Bajrang Dal, which academicians have compared to the Nazi SA, organized an armed procession, ostensibly to celebrate a Hindu festival.

The police not only allowed the procession by 150-200 members of this violent group – who were brandishing baseball bats, swords, pistols and shotguns – but also escorted them through the minority area.


Raising aggressive and provocative slogans threatening the minority community and playing loud DJ music, “the procession had already made two rounds of that area in Block C Jahangirpuri in which the dominant residents are Bengali speaking Muslims,” noted a fact-finding team of left parties and mass-organizations.

It was in the third round of the procession that the clashes broke out after it halted outside a mosque during prayer time. “In other words an armed procession is given license to stop outside the mosque shouting slogans at the exact time when the roza is to end and when a crowd of Muslims had gathered,” the fact-finding team’s statement on April 18 explained.

Arguments escalated into violence as stones were pelted from both sides. Guns were also reportedly fired. “The team was told that there was a fear among the residents near that area that the processionists would enter the mosque and that the police were not taking any action. Big crowds collected. Some people who did not want to be named also said that arms were later brought by some elements in the minority community (also),” it added.

Outnumbered by the local residents, the processionists made an escape. Injuries, including to policemen, were reported. Some vehicles were burnt and shops ransacked.

“But cooler heads from both communities in the area calmed the aggravated people down to diffuse the tensions. They successfully thwarted the attempt to provoke a riot between Hindus and Muslims,” Democratic Youth Federation of India (DYFI) North Delhi district committee’s secretary, Subash, who resides close to the violence-hit area, told Peoples Dispatch. He was one of the delegates of the fact-finding team.

Arrests mainly targeting Muslims
Starting from around 2 am that night, the police carried out raids on homes in the area, making several arrests till morning, he said, adding, “All the (14) arrested were Muslims. Video evidence of participation in the clashes exists only against a few of them. Many others were arrested simply because of their previous record of petty crimes. Several women who objected to the late night raids on their homes were beaten by male police.”

The main accused among them was a 16-year old minor, whom the police accuse of having fired a bullet that injured a sub-inspector. They also claim to have recovered a country-made pistol from his custody.

Wrongly reported to be 22 years of age, the minor, who allegedly was not even allowed to get dressed while being arrested, was illegally held in police custody where he was brutally beaten, according to his lawyers. It was only after their intervention in court that the police were ordered to produce him before the juvenile justice board, as required by the law when minors are apprehended.

Refuting the allegations that police are targeting only members from the Muslim community, Delhi Police Commissioner Rakesh Asthana said, “During the investigation, if we get evidence against any person, we will take action and arrest them, irrespective of their class, creed, community and religion. We are not discriminating with anyone.”

Among the subsequent arrests made since April 17, bringing the total number to 25, are also five members from a Hindu family who were identified as organizers of the procession.

However, the names of the far-right Hindu organizations were retracted from the original police statement.

The Deputy Commissioner of Police (DCP) of Northwest Delhi, Usha Rangnani, issued a statement on Monday, April 18, informing media that a case had been filed against VHP and Bajrang Dal. They were blamed for “carrying out a procession without any permission”, leading to the violence. The statement further added that the local VHP leader Prem Sharma “has been arrested”.

“VHP will launch a battle if they try to lodge a false case or pick any of its activists,” national spokesperson Vinod Bansal threatened, asking why the police escorted the procession if there was no permission in the first place.

Within hours after his arrest, Sharma was let off, and the police statement was retracted. The new statement which followed mentioned that Sharma “has joined the investigation”, in place of “has been arrested”. Divulging only that a case has been registered against the organizers, without naming any organizations, the revised statement omits the mention of Bajrang Dal and VHP. It is unclear if the police case retains the names of the organizations.

The VHP and Bajrang Dal are among the plethora of violent organizations under the far-right umbrella called the Sangh Parivar, gathered around the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The RSS, which was founded in 1925, espouses the principle of Hindutva which posits India as a fundamentally Hindu nation. The RSS is often described as the ideological parent of the BJP and prime minister Narendra Modi himself was a member of the RSS.

In the aftermath of the clashes, calls by local BJP leaders to bulldoze the houses of the Muslims who had been arrested from Jahangirpuri grew louder. They also spread rumors that the Bengali-speaking Muslims in this area were Rohingya refugees and illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.

Among those was BJP leader Kapil Mishra who was infamous for his provocative speech in February 2020 during a months-long sit-in protest against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). His threats and call to evict the protesters was followed by days of religious violence in Delhi, causing over 50 deaths in the northeastern part of the city.

Following the violence on April 16 this year, Mishra blamed “Bangladeshi infiltrators”, and demanded that “they should be identified and their homes should be bulldozed.”

On April 19, Adesh Gupta, president of BJP’s Delhi Unit, wrote a letter to the mayor of the North Delhi Municipal Corporation NDMC, demanding that he bulldoze the temporary structures, mainly shops, of the “anti-social elements and rioters”, as a part of an anti-encroachment drive.

“Will the bulldozer roll in Delhi too?” tweeted BJP’s Delhi handle, with a picture of a bulldozer and a copy of Gupta’s letter to the NDMC, whipping up an excited anticipation among its supporters about another upcoming demolition in a minority area.

The bulldozer has become a much glorified symbol in the Indian right-wing. Earlier this month, several BJP-ruled States had already rolled bulldozers against homes and small shops in minority areas where similar incidents of religious violence took place after processions by far-right organizations purporting to be celebrating another Hindu festival. These include the country’s most populous State, Uttar Pradesh, followed by Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

Soon after receiving Gupta’s letter, the NDMC ordered a “Special Joint Encroachment removal program in Jahangirpuri”. The municipal body requested “at least 400 Police Personnel” to maintain “law and order” during the demolition drive that was scheduled to go on for three days.

Communists resist the bulldozer
“Soon after we learnt about this order, we approached our lawyers in the All India Lawyers Union (AILU),” Rajeev Kunwar, member of CPIM’s Delhi state secretariat, told Peoples Dispatch. “Along with other senior advocates, they took the matter to the Supreme Court. By 10:45 a.m, the court had ordered the maintenance of status-quo of the constructions.”

However, the demolitions, he said, picked up pace as the authorities pretended to not have learnt about the order yet. On rushing to the spot with Brinda Karat, “we could not access authorities of the police and the NDMC. So we had to physically block the buldozer’s way to stop it before the police officials finally came around to assure us that they would recall it and halt the demolition as per orders,” he added.

The NDMC maintains that the drive was not meant to target the minority community, but only to clear the illegal encroachments. Kunwar calls it a bluff. “Most of Delhi has what is regarded as illegal encroachments. Zeroing in on the livelihood of a minority community which only days ago saw communal violence is an open and blatant attempt of the BJP to polarize on religious lines,” he argued.

20 small shops and the front of a mosque, outside which the violence had broken out during the far-right’s armed procession, had been razed down before the bulldozer was stopped.

“The bulldozer today is not just a machine. It represents the ideology and the political strategy of Hindutva, which is anti-minority and anti-poor,” Karat told Peoples Dispatch.

“There are no shortcuts to stop it. It will take an ideology that is uncompromising as far as the fight against Hindutva is concerned. And it will take resistance at the ground level, resistance in every sphere where the bulldozers go,” she added.

“With the strength of the ideology, and the ability to mobilize people into resistance, the communists,” Karat maintains, “are well-equipped to take up this challenge.”

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2022/04/25/ ... -in-india/
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Re: India

Post by blindpig » Tue May 03, 2022 1:57 pm

This my friends is what a communist party weekly newspaper ought to look like. We should strive to regain this form of media as the hammer comes down on the electronic media wholly owned and controlled by a handful of capitalists. Go to the pdf, 16 pages, imagine that......
*****************************************

NewAge Central Organ of the Communist Party of India Central Organ of the Communist Party of India Weekly

AP Sets Up Reception Committee for 24th Congress of CPI
Country Needs Left, Democratic, Secular Unity

May Day Ever Keeps Alive Struggle Against Injustice

Govt Mobilising Tea Garden Workers for PM Rally: AITUC

(and so on...)

http://solidnet.org/.galleries/document ... L-2022.pdf

**************************************

CP of India, Sale of Govt Shares in LIC, A Retrograde Move: D Raja, CPI General Secretary
4/28/22 3:02 PM

D Raja, General Secretary, Communist Party of India issued the following statement today (April 28, 2022) demanding immediate halt to privatisation spree of state sector units:

Communist Party of India General Secretary said that it is a matter of great regret that the BJP-led NDA government is hell-bent on selling off all national assets through monetisation policy and privatisation of public sector units. The tragedy is that those long-term assets are being sold to collect revenue to meet the current expenditure as well as the government’s miserable failure to mop of enough finances through either retaining the earlier higher corporate taxes or hiking them further, if necessary, to offset the heavy losses caused by rightist US-model economic policies.

The sell-offs are bound to affect the sovereignty and economic independence of our sovereign nation which in contrast will benefit the corporates, both domestic and foreign. Continuing with retrograde right-wing measures, the Modi government has announced that its share capital in the country’s flagship financial institution, LIC will be sold off.

With such sale, 22 crores of LIC’s shares are being given to private hands which will fetch about RS 20,000 crores of revenue to the central government.

The move is totally a retrograde one, which is against the national interests and against the interest of LIC’s policy holders.

The Party calls upon the government to immediately halt its privatisation spree as well as sell-off of its national assets.

S/d

(Roykutty)

Office Secretary

http://solidnet.org/article/CP-of-India ... Secretary/
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Re: India

Post by blindpig » Tue May 10, 2022 1:56 pm

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all-out of the Ukraine conflict on India’s economy
Posted May 06, 2022 by the Research Unit for Political Economy

Originally published: The Research Unit for Political Economy (R.U.P.E.) on April 18, 2022 (more by The Research Unit for Political Economy (R.U.P.E.))

What impact will the war in Ukraine have on India’s economy? To understand this, we need to look at the state of the economy before the war.

It is already clear that India’s rulers will ascribe all the adverse developments of the coming period to the Ukraine war, an “act of God”, as it were. That provides them a ready alibi, and diverts from the already alarming condition of the people before the impact of the war. Indeed, as we shall see in an article to appear later on this blog, a sort of economic war has been underway in India, with countless victims, yet it is shrouded by a remarkable silence. The principal responsibility for the suffering of the people thus cannot be shoved onto world events; it lies principally with India’s rulers themselves, who have led the country into the present abyss.

Further, the rulers have started imposing burdens on the people in the name of the fall-outs of the war (now that the elections to five state assemblies are over). The Finance Minister declared in Parliament: “People have been asking, how can you raise the fuel price?… [The timing of the price hikes] has nothing to do with elections… This war which is happening in Ukraine, the impact of that is on all countries, supply chains are disrupted, particularly of crude oil.”1

Here we argue the following:

1. People had already suffered a steep rise in the prices of petroleum products in the last two years, in part because the Government raised excise taxes on them in 2020. This the Government did in order to compensate for its sharp reduction of corporate taxes in 2019, thus shifting the burden from the corporate sector to the common people.

2. Current inflation is not being driven by excess demand; quite the reverse, demand is depressed. Nor is inflation being driven by a cost-push from wages or from most agricultural prices. In fact, real wages of rural workers (and probably most other workers as well) have gone down in the past year, and terms of trade for most farmers have been deteriorating. Meanwhile the large corporate sector, taking advantage of reduced competition from a now-devastated small and medium sector, is able to pass on increased costs to customers.

In these conditions, trying to control prices by depressing demand will only further depress employment without tackling prices. In order to check the current price rise, people should struggle for a drastic reduction in petroleum taxes, as well as for other direct measures of price control and public provisioning.

3. International fertiliser prices too have been rising over the last year. But the Government failed to act in time to ensure adequate supplies. Farmers were driven to buy fertiliser at exorbitant prices on the black market. This year, despite knowing that domestic stocks are low and that the price of imported fertilisers is set to rise, the Government has cut the provision for fertiliser subsidy in the Budget. The mismanagement of fertiliser supplies may already have had a negative effect on the current wheat crop, and portends graver effects in the coming year.

4. Edible oil prices too have risen over the last year. Due to State policy, India has developed a heavy dependence on imports of edible oil over the post-liberalisation years, which leaves it helpless when external developments raise import prices of edible oils. What is required is a system of promotion and large-scale public procurement of edible oilseeds, and distribution of edible oil through the public distribution system (PDS). While the former will take time to implement, people should immediately struggle for the latter, i.e., provision of edible oil at controlled prices through the PDS.

5. Using the excuse of ‘excess’ buffer stocks and high international prices of wheat, the Government is reducing its wheat procurement target and pushing for large-scale exports. But India is not a land of surplus foodgrain. On the contrary, India has the largest number of undernourished people in the world. The Food Corporation of India and the PDS were the sole barrier that prevented an even greater catastrophe during the Covid-19 lockdowns. The current so-called ‘excess’ supply is due to a lack of purchasing power with large masses of people, and the failure to distribute more grain where it is nutritionally needed. Moreover, the ‘excess’ stock is falling, and wheat prices have been rising as wheat exports have risen in the past six months. The export of wheat must be opposed.

6. The gravest impact may be triggered by the developments in the external sector. India has built up massive foreign exchange reserves as a defence against an external crisis, but it has done so by building up even larger external liabilities, a large part of which can be withdrawn at will by foreigners. The deficit on the current account (the broadest measure of external earnings and payments) is growing, and may cause foreign investors to become more cautious. Any withdrawal may cause the rupee to weaken, which will raise import costs and thus further fuel price rise; and it may also cause financial instability. In order to prevent such a withdrawal, the Government has already announced its intention to hike interest rates. But this will further depress the already depressed economic activity in the country. This vulnerability to volatile capital flows has been built up by successive regimes, including the current ‘Atmanirbhar’ regime.

There has already been a depression in India, the scale of which is hidden only by the fact that it is concentrated in the informal sector, about which scant data are gathered. The cumulative effect of rising prices and attempts by the Government to prevent capital outflows would be an even deeper depression.

Two main channels
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) blog warned2 in March that the Ukraine war may affect countries worldwide through two main channels, namely, price rise and capital outflows:

(1) “One, higher prices for commodities like food and energy will push up inflation further, in turn eroding the value of incomes and weighing on demand.” As people restrict their consumption to essentials, demand for a whole range of goods gets curtailed–much as we saw in India during the Covid-19 lockdown. In turn, workers producing those goods receive less income or lose their employment altogether. All this can make economies spiral downward into a recession.

(2) Secondly, “reduced business confidence and higher investor uncertainty will weigh on asset prices, tightening financial conditions and potentially spurring capital outflows from emerging markets…” In conditions of greater uncertainty, global financial investors tend to return to so-called ‘safe havens’, i.e., the world’s dominant countries, in particular the U.S.. As they pull out their investments, the rupee’s value falls, interest rates are raised, funds become scarce, and a whole series of other consequences are triggered.

However, both these developments–price rise and increased volatility of capital flows–were under way in India well before the Ukraine war, for reasons that can be traced to the Indian government’s policies. And to the extent these problems intensify in the coming period, the main responsibility cannot be placed on a distant war: rather, it lies at the door of those existing policies. Let us look at these questions in turn.

Petroleum products
The rise in the international prices of crude oil and natural gas did not start with the Ukraine war; rather, after hitting a low of $21/barrel in April 2020, these prices rose steadily, to hit $81/barrel in October 2021. But what is particularly relevant to us is that, in 2020, the Indian government steeply increased the taxes on petroleum products, and kept them high even as international prices rose. As can be seen from the chart below, the price rise in petrol and diesel was raging long before most people in India had heard of Ukraine.

Retail Selling Price of Petrol and Diesel in Delhi

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Source: Economic Survey 2021-22.

In the last quarter of 2021, in preparation for state assembly elections, excise duties on petroleum products were reduced. This is reflected in the dip in the chart above. Nevertheless they remain very large (Rs 27.90/litre on petrol, and Rs 21.80/litre on diesel as on April 1, 2022). At present taxes make up more than 47 per cent of the price of petrol in Delhi, and more than 41 per cent of the price of diesel.3 The burden of these taxes is particularly heavy for Indians, as incomes here are so low. Petroleum products in India are thus among the most unaffordable in the world (i.e., they take a larger bite out of the income of most people), and certainly among all G-20 countries.4

The taxes on petroleum products are an extraordinary extraction from the poorest sections of the people, since they raise the prices of all goods. In 2021-22, retail inflation was driven by two groups of commodities, ‘fuel and light’ and ‘miscellaneous’. And inflation in the ‘miscellaneous’ group of commodities, as the Economic Survey 2021-22 notes, was largely on account of high inflation in the subgroup ‘transport and communication’, which in turn was partly driven by rising fuel prices. Moreover, the higher prices of fuel add to the production and transport costs of all other goods. In other words, inflation in 2021-22 could have been checked by simply reducing excise on petroleum products.

Class nature of current inflation
The Reserve Bank’s recent Monetary Policy Report (April 8) says that the inflationary pressures in the second half of the year “can be attributed mainly to adverse cost-push factors, coming from supply-side shocks in food and fuel prices, even as weak aggregate demand conditions continued to exert downward pressure on inflation”.5 What does this mean, in plain English? We can think of inflation as caused by either a rise in demand (pulling up prices), or a rise in production costs (pushing up prices). What do the data indicate?

— In the past year, there was no demand-pull. Consumer demand remained depressed: per capita private consumption expenditure in 2021-22 is estimated to be 5 per cent below the level of two years earlier.

— At the same time, there was no cost-push from wages. Real wage levels of rural labourers actually fell, according to Government surveys; since construction and other manual workers in the informal sector are drawn from this rural pool, their wages too would have stagnated at best. In the organised sector, labour’s share in total production costs have been falling in recent months, for both manufacturing and services. In manufacturing, they are now 5.3 per cent of production costs, well below any time in the last three years.6

— Further, there was no cost-push from most crop prices. Wholesale agricultural prices were depressed, even as prices of fuel and manufactured goods rose steeply.

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Source: Wholesale Price Index. Average of March 2021-February 2022 over average of March 2020-February 2021.

— Meanwhile, the corporate sector as a whole was largely able to pass on its increased costs to consumers. In the quarter ending December 2021, the value of sales by non-financial listed companies grew 30.9 per cent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year. But real sales, i.e., after adjusting for increased prices, grew by only 7.1 per cent.7

— The corporate sector found it easier to pass on its costs to consumers because small and medium-sized competitors have been devastated by a series of blows: the pre-lockdown depression, the lockdowns, the deeper post-lockdown depression, and the current rise in input prices. The market research firm Nielsen reports that 14 per cent of small manufacturers in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) category exited the business between September 2020 and September 2021, continuing a trend witnessed over the past few years. Almost all the growth in the market was captured by large firms.8

These facts bring out the class nature of the current inflation. We will return to this question in a later piece

Given that the Central Government has extracted huge revenues through taxes on crude oil and petroleum products (Rs 4.2 lakh crore in 2020-21 alone), and given that the corporate sector has earned a bonanza in profits in the last year, it can certainly absorb the recent rise in international prices without hiking domestic prices. But instead, on the excuse of the Ukraine war, the Indian government is continuing to impose burdens on the people: a sharp hike in diesel for bulk buyers (e.g., public transport), nearly daily hikes in petrol and diesel prices, steep hikes in natural gas prices.

The Indian government may instead decide to absorb part of the international price increase. But in that case, it is likely to slash other expenditures in its Budget for 2022-23, so as to remain within its fiscal deficit target. Which expenditures might it choose for the axe?

The Budget for 2022-23 gives us an idea of the Government’s priorities. It reduced real expenditure on a range of welfare and employment expenditures such as rural employment (MGNREGS), food subsidy (PDS), rural development, and public health. All this was done in order to spend more on infrastructure, with the visible aim of boosting corporate growth, or at least corporate profits.

2. Fertiliser:
The war in Ukraine directly affects fertiliser supplies. India imports phosphatic fertiliser from Russia and the Belarus. Natural gas is a feedstock for production of urea fertilisers, and Russia is a major supplier of natural gas. India is the world’s biggest buyer of urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP), and depends on imports for a third of its fertiliser supplies. In the liberalisation era, India has grown increasingly dependent on imports of fertiliser, even for urea (for which we have the raw materials, unlike in the case of phosphatic and potassium-based fertilisers). Thus a prolonged war in Ukraine will certainly create a shortage of fertiliser here.

However, the problem predates the Ukraine war: fertiliser prices had already nearly doubled on the international market over the past year. As economies recovered from the Covid-period downturn, the prices of a range of commodities, including coal, natural gas, and phosphates, rose. Fertiliser-producing countries prioritised domestic requirements over export, with China and Russia banning the export of fertilisers.

Table: Fertiliser Prices on the International Market ($/metric tonne)

Jan-Mar 2021 (avge) Oct-Dec 2021 (avge) Feb 2022
DAP 494.8 714.9 747.1
Phosphate rock 89.8 159.1 172.5
Potassium chloride 202.5 221 391.8
Triple Super Phosphate 416.5 656.6 687.5
Urea, E. Europe 317.6 828.5 744.2
Source: World Bank Commodities Price Data, March 2, 2022

While fertilisers are officially subsidised in India, only the prices of urea fertilisers are fixed by the Government. Non-urea fertilisers receive a fixed amount of subsidy per tonne (of the specific nutrient), but the price is set by companies by ensuring a profitable mark-up over their costs; when their import costs rise, they pass on the higher costs to consumers. If the Government wishes the retail price of non-urea fertilisers to remain the same, it has to increase the subsidy per tonne.

In the second half of 2021, as fertiliser prices rose, the Government, anxious about the upcoming assembly elections in several states, appears to have pressurised fertiliser companies not to raise the prices of non-urea fertilisers. However, it failed to raise the subsidy amount. As a result, firms did not find it profitable to make imports in time for the rabi crop (DAP application for the rabi crop starts at the time of sowing, in October), and then raised retail prices of fertiliser sharply.

When the Government finally (on October 12) raised the subsidy on non-urea fertilisers, it was too late, and a massive shortage emerged. The Indian Express reported that “all-India stocks of DAP and muriate of potash on September 30 [2021] were less than half the year-ago levels, even as international prices of fertilisers and inputs have surged to their highest since 2008-09.”9

Desperate Indian farmers ran from pillar to post to obtain supplies, and at many places near-riots took place. They were compelled to buy fertilisers at exorbitant prices on the black market, where the premium was reportedly 25 per cent on DAP and 50 per cent on urea.10 This took place even as the prices of other inputs, in particular diesel, rose sharply. Farmers, particularly small and marginal farmers, were compelled to cut back on fertiliser use.

Thus, as we can see from the chart below, fertiliser sales were considerably below the figures for the previous two years, and this trend continued into January-February 2022, as fertiliser traders reduced their stocks and imports fell.11 The Government bears the responsibility for this setback.

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Source: RBI, Monetary Policy Report, April 2022.

Moreover, India’s own urea production will also be affected by the rising prices of natural gas. India depends on imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for most of its feedstock requirements for urea production, and it buys about half of this, not on long-term contracts, but at spot market prices. LNG prices have risen steeply over the last year. This means that, in order to keep consumer prices of urea at the same level, the subsidy from the Government to the manufacturers would have to rise.

Despite this background, the 2022-23 Budget cut the provision for fertiliser subsidy by 25 per cent over the Revised Estimates of the previous year.

Fertiliser Subsidy, 2021-22 and 2022-23

2021-22 (RE) 2022-23 (BE)
Urea subsidy 75930 63222
Nutrient-based subsidy 64192 42000
Total 140122 105222
RE = Revised Estimates. BE = Budget Estimates
Source: Union Budget 2022-23.

If the Government chooses now to increase subsidies on fertiliser in order to keep domestic prices from rising, it would very likely cut some head of welfare expenditure, for the reason mentioned above.

3. Edible oil:
Ukraine is the main source of India’s imports of sunflower oil, so the war will hit supplies. India is the world’s number one importer of edible oils, and is dependent on imports for 60 per cent of its consumption (with palm oils constituting 60 per cent of edible oil imports). Hence it is particularly vulnerable to international price fluctuations due to developments outside its control, such as Indonesia’s decision last year to reduce its palm oil exports.

India’s Production and Import of Edible Oil (million tonnes)

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Source: Economic Survey 2021-22.

Over the last two years, prices of ‘oils and fats’ have risen steeply in India; in 2020-21, they rose 16 per cent, and in April-December 2021, 31 per cent over the corresponding period of the previous year. Oil and fats accounted for around 60 per cent of inflation in ‘food and beverages’. Evidently, India is paying a steep price for its import dependence in edible oils, which got entrenched in the post-1994 period (i.e. after it joined the World Trade Organisation and dismantled a successful programme for promotion of domestic oilseed production).

The Government has attempted to keep edible oil prices under control by reducing import duties: from October 2021 to February 2022, the effective import duty on three major imported crude edible oils, namely, palm oil, soyabean oil and sunflower oil, was reduced by 19.25 percentage points. However, given that the problem is the large gap between demand and domestic supply of edible oilseeds, the solution to the problem is not reduction in import duties. Rather, the solution is a comprehensive programme of promotion of oilseeds, including through assured public procurement at remunerative prices, and supply of edible oil in the public distribution system.

The Government no doubt has made some attempts to promote improved seeds, and it does announce a Minimum Support Price (MSP) for various oilseeds, but its procurement operations are small, and oilseeds are routinely sold at much below MSP (as acknowledged in official reports). When market prices of edible oil rise sharply, as they have done in the last two years, the market prices of oilseeds too rise, and farmers bring more acreage under oilseeds for a short while, but they frequently experience sharp drops in price by the time the crop is marketed. At any rate, growth is too slow to meet demand: oilseed production grew just 10 per cent between 2013-14 and 2020-21.

Note that, compared to edible oil, the market prices of rice and wheat have been relatively steady, since producers have benefited from public procurement and consumers have benefited from public distribution. If India is to overcome its massive dependence on imports for this essential item of mass consumption, it must expand, not dismantle, its public procurement and distribution system beyond rice and wheat.

4. Wheat exports: On one count, however, the authorities and the media are celebrating the Ukraine war: They believe it will open up a grand opportunity for India to make wheat exports.

Russia and Ukraine are both major wheat exporters, accounting for a quarter of international trade in wheat. As a result the war there has already led to a steep hike in international wheat prices. And this, on the back of a rise in wheat prices in the second half of 2021.

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Sources: Wholesale Price Index, India; World Bank Commodity Price databank, export price of U.S. hard red winter wheat.

India, on the other hand, has large public stocks with the Food Corporation of India (FCI): the FCI held 19 million tonnes (mt) of wheat on April 1, 2022, or 255 per cent of the norm for buffer stocks on that date.12 Moreover, the Government announced a wheat procurement target of 44.4 mt in the current season.

As international wheat prices began to rise in the latter part of 2021, private traders in India seized the opportunity. Wheat exports reached 7.85 mt in 2021-22, a record for India. Demand in the coming year appears even more promising: the target of 10 mt may be outstripped by 5mt. Private traders are reportedly buying up wheat from farmers in Madhya Pradesh at above the Minimum Support Price.

The FCI is not allowed to directly export wheat from its stocks, as that would come up against opposition from other wheat exporters in the World Trade Organisation (who would claim that India is subsidising its exports). Instead, the Government is simply procuring less, and allowing private traders to purchase the remainder. At present the Government has reduced its procurement target by 10 mt, but it may go even lower. The Government welcomes the surge in wheat exports. The media too have embraced it, with headlines such as “India acts to seize gap in wheat export market”, “India looks to fill wheat granaries depleted by Ukraine war in many countries”, “MP might lower mandi tax to facilitate wheat exports from the state”, and so on.

The assumption behind this policy is that India is a ‘foodgrain-surplus’ country, similar to the U.S. or Australia. This is false. In fact, India has, according to the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the largest number of undernourished people in the world.13 Within India, official sample surveys14 show a wide range of calorie intake. The poorest 5 per cent in the rural and urban areas consume a little over 1600 calories per day, on the average; calorie consumption rises steadily with each income group–with the richest 5 per cent in both rural and urban areas consuming over 3200 calories per day. About three-fourths of the rural population and half the urban population do not meet the minimum norms for calorie intake used by the erstwhile Planning Commission in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2007-12) for rural and urban areas (2400 and 2100 calories, respectively, per person per day).

The importance of cereals in the diets of the great majority of working people can be seen from a few facts. First, food accounts for 53 per cent of consumer expenditure in the rural areas, and 43 per cent in the urban areas. Cereals account for only 11 per cent (rural) and 7 per cent (urban) of consumer expenditure, but provide 57 per cent and 48 per cent of calories, respectively. The poorer the consumer, the higher the share of calories provided by cereals: thus the poorest garner 70 per cent (rural) and 66 per cent (urban) of their calories from cereals.

Moreover, protein intake is heavily dependent on cereal intake. Cereals account for 58 per cent (rural) and 49 per cent (urban) of protein intake, and here, too, the poor derive a much higher proportion of their meagre proteins from cereals.

Even though the better-off consume more of other foods, they also consume more cereals than the poor do. If the poor were better-off, they would not only consume more pulses, vegetables, milk, eggs, fish and meat, but also more cereals. The reason that stocks of cereal with the Food Corporation of India are so large is not because they are ‘surplus’ in terms of people’s nutritional needs, but because people lack the purchasing power to obtain them.

The critical role of the cereal stocks with the FCI was underlined during the pandemic lockdown. Dreze and Somanchi15 conclude from a careful study of 76 household surveys that “there is overwhelming evidence that the national lockdown of April-May 2020 was associated with a tremendous food crisis. Large numbers of people struggled to feed their families, and food intake dipped in both qualitative and quantitative terms for a majority of the population.” Where other relief measures by the Government were patchy and inadequate, “A large majority of the population had access to the PDS in 2020 (with enhanced monthly rations for 8 months), and this played a critical role in averting the worst.”

Under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY), existing ration card holders could obtain an extra 5 kg grain per person per month, free of cost–in other words, the barrier of purchasing power was removed. As a result, total wheat offtake rose from 27 mn t in 2020-21 to 36 mn t in 2020-21 and further to 47 mn t in the first 11 months of 2021-22.16 With this, excess wheat stocks with the FCI have steadily fallen through the year; from 33 mn t in July 2021, they have fallen to 12 mn t in April 2022.17 Further, the Government has extended the PMGKAY for another six months, till September 2022.

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The RBI notes that the sudden sharp rise in wheat exports since September 2021 has already led to a sharp rise in domestic wheat prices (albeit much less steep than international prices). Significantly, it fears that “international prices could set a floor for domestic wheat prices through the export channel”.18 Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies have been repeatedly marking up their processed foods prices. Despite the FCI’s grain stocks and a bumper crop, wheat prices may rise further in coming days. Given that other commodities too are witnessing price rise at present, the export-fueled rise in wheat prices will impose an unbearable burden on consumers, who have already reduced their consumption.

It is most important to be alert to a possible plan on the Government’s part to kill two birds with a single stone. The recent peasant struggle against the Farm Acts forced the Government to temporarily retreat from dismantling the entire regime of public procurement and distribution. Peasants recognised that they would lose under a regime where giant agribusinesses would call the shots, and preferred the security of public procurement at the official Minimum Support Price (MSP). Now international prices have risen steeply, and private traders are buying up the wheat crop at above MSP. This provides an opportunity to the Government to proclaim that the ‘free market’, including free external trade, benefits farmers. Simultaneously, it has a chance to reduce public procurement. Thus, the very system which prevented an even greater catastrophe during the recent pandemic lockdowns and consequent depression may be surreptitiously brought under attack once again.

5. Trade deficit and current account deficit: As the world economy slows–due to various disruptions, price rise and uncertainties–demand for India’s exports too will slow. India’s merchandise exports have grown rapidly during 2021-22, after a decade of stagnating at the same level. However, export growth had already started slowing in recent months.

Even as India’s exports have grown, its imports have been growing more rapidly, leading to a growing merchandise trade deficit. (Among the factors contributing to this is a surge in gold imports, to $33 billion in April-November 2021.) All this happened long before the Ukraine crisis. The trade deficit jumped $90 billion, from $102 billion in 2020-21 to $192 billion in 2021-22–a record high.

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Source: Finance Ministry, Monthly Economic Report, March 2022.

The deficit on the current account–a broader measure, which includes earnings and expenditures on not only merchandise but also services and investments–has been growing rapidly. The current account balance has deteriorated in 2021-22 from a surplus of over $6 billion in the first quarter to a deficit of $23 billion, or 2.7 per cent of GDP, in the third quarter. The deficit is likely to grow further in coming months. The U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley forecasts that India’s current account deficit (CAD) will be 3 per cent in 2022-23.

When a country runs a deficit on the current account, it must balance it with a surplus on the capital account. In other words, when it spends more than it earns, it must balance this with inflows of capital–that is, foreign investment, foreign loans, or foreign grants, or a drawing down of its foreign exchange reserves. Among such flows of foreign investment are foreign investment in India’s share markets.

6. Outflow of foreign investment: Between October 2021 and March-end 2022, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in India’s stockmarket kept pulling out investments. This was not on account of any imminent crisis in India. Rather, they anticipated that the U.S. central bank (the Federal Reserve) would hike interest rates in the U.S., and also tighten the supply of funds.

Much foreign portfolio investment had come to India precisely because interest rates in the U.S. were near-zero, and in addition the U.S. Federal Reserve had taken special measures to ensure an overabundance of funds available for borrowing. Provided such a sea of money, international speculators pumped a portion into ‘risky’ Third World markets like India. From June 2020, there was a flood of foreign investment in the share market, and share prices soared.

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Source: NSDL FPI Monitor.

The Indian authorities and the media touted this as foreigners’ vote of confidence in the long-term prospects of the Indian economy. The Economic Survey 2020-21 termed it “an endorsement of India’s status as a preferred investment destination among the global investors”.19 However, as soon as it was clear U.S. interest rates would start inching up again, foreign investors started withdrawing a portion of their funds. Since October 2021, FPIs have withdrawn a larger sum from Indian stocks than during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. (At that time the stock market plunged by nearly 70 per cent; this time, it has not done so as yet, largely because Indian investors have been buying up the shares foreign investors sold off.)20

Indeed, the rupee’s exchange rate could slide if foreign investment in the stock market leaves, and the trade deficit widens. This downward pressure has already been visible for some time: the rupee’s value dropped nearly 4 per cent over the course of the year, and at one point touched Rs 77.06/$. Any drop adds to the rupee price of imports, and thereby to price rise in general.

As we noted earlier, it is projected by some that India’s current account deficit may rise to 3 per cent in 2022-23. Foreign investors appear to consider a CAD above 3 per cent of GDP as a danger mark, and the Indian authorities themselves consider 2.4-2.8 per cent as the maximum ‘sustainable’ (by implication, a level higher than that is un sustainable).21 Since it is possible that these levels will be breached in the coming period, there may be greater uncertainty about foreign capital flows.

Why should this matter? One could argue that the CAD can be paid for by drawing down the foreign exchange reserves–that is what the reserves are for. And India has giant foreign exchange reserves: over $606 billion on April 1, 2022, which would cover our merchandise imports for a year. Even if no foreign investment were to come into India in the coming year, it would seem that the RBI could easily take care of the gap. Particularly after the 1997-98 Southeast Asian crisis, Third World governments have tried to accumulate large foreign exchange reserves, as a sort of dam against any crisis.

The reason it matters is that India’s foreign exchange reserves themselves are not built out of trade surpluses accumulated over time (as is the case with, for example, China). Rather, they have been accumulated out of foreign liabilities–debts owed to foreigners and investments in India by foreigners. India’s Net International Investment Position–i.e., the foreign assets owned by Indians (mainly the RBI’s foreign exchange reserves) minus India’s liabilities to foreigners–was -$358 billion at the end of December 2021. In fact, sizeable parts of India’s liabilities can be withdrawn by foreigners at short notice.

Imagine, if you will, enjoying a large bank balance, but an even larger debt, much of which might have to be repaid suddenly if the creditors get nervous. Naturally, all one’s behaviour would be conditioned by the need to reassure one’s creditors. This vulnerability has been created by successive governments of India, each adding further net liabilities to the legacy it received.

In a strange pathology, the larger the liabilities, the greater the need to accumulate reserves to reassure foreign investors–thereby further increasing the liabilities. The foreign exchange reserves are invested in ‘safe haven’ assets in the developed countries, on which the returns are very low. On the other hand, foreign investments in India yield a much higher income–to foreign investors. Moreover, the present value of foreign investments is multiples of the values at which they came in. As we have pointed out in an earlier article (“A Regime of Drain, External Control, and Impoverishment”, November 16, 2021), this results in a net drain from India, recalling the drain during colonial rule.

Further, these net liabilities, and the constant fear of the exit of foreign investment, act as a constant pressure on the country to adhere to the policies demanded by international investors and international institutions. These policies are continuously monitored by international credit rating agencies. Even if India were not to defy their strictures, some external event–such as instability in another Third World country, or a crisis in the developed world–can lead international investors to shift to ‘safe havens’, principally the U.S..

A recent UNCTAD report, Tapering in a Time of Conflict (March 24, 2022), provides a grim analysis of the present international situation. It points out that developed countries such as the U.S., which had, in 2020, reduced interest rates and expanded money supply in order to revive growth in their own economies, are now poised to “taper”–that is, they will increase their interest rates and tighten their money supply in order to curb inflation. As they do so, “it may have disastrous repercussions for developing countries.” Money may exit ‘developing’ countries and head for the U.S., making it difficult for developing countries to service their foreign debt and obtain fresh debt in order to make critical imports. The exchange rates of their currencies might drop precipitously, which would make imported goods expensive, and further push up inflation in such countries (already high due to the rise in the international prices of oil and other commodities).

In order to prevent capital exiting their economies, and to check domestic price rise, the developing countries may resort to hiking interest rates (since a higher interest rate would mean higher returns for a foreign investor in that country’s debt, making it more attractive). This in turn would make it difficult for domestic businesses and consumers to borrow, further pushing down domestic demand–already depressed by high prices. Keep in mind that the economies of the developing countries were already dealt a massive blow by the pandemic and its associated lockdowns. Further, in contrast to the developed world’s massive expansions of Government spending in order to counteract the effects of the lockdowns, the developing countries only made meagre increases in Government spending, for fear that foreign investors would exit their economies. As a result, they remain in depression. Now, this depression is set to deepen.

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Source: Tweet of June 19, 2021 by Gita Gopinath, chief economist, IMF.

The case of India seems on the surface to be different. After all, India’s external debt indicators look healthy, and there seems to be no imminent crisis (see Table below).

India–External Debt Indicators

End-March External Debt (U.S.$ billion) Ratio of External Debt to GDP (%) Debt Service Ratio (%) Ratio of Foreign Exchange Reserves to Total Debt (%)
2014 446.2 23.9 5.9 68.2
2015 474.7 23.8 7.6 72
2016 484.8 23.4 8.8 74.3
2017 471 19.8 8.3 78.5
2018 529.3 20.1 7.5 80.2
2019 543.1 19.9 6.4 76
2020 558.4 20.6 6.5 85.6
2021 569.7 21.1 8.2 101.3
End-June 2021 571.3 20.2 4.1 107
Source: RBI

However, UNCTAD paints a less rosy picture. It notes that, among Asian economies, “India in particular will face restraints on several fronts: energy access and prices, primary commodity bottlenecks, reflexes from trade sanctions, food inflation, tightening policies and financial instability.” It is the last–financial instability–that is most significant. What UNCTAD argues is that, irrespective of their seeming mountains of foreign exchange reserves, the more integrated developing economies are with global finance, the more vulnerable they are.

Their vulnerability was vividly demonstrated in 2013, when the chairman of the U.S. central bank (the ‘U.S. Fed’) said that the Fed would start to taper off its expansion of money supply. As the fresh supply of dollars would now slow down, the statement led to an immediate rise in the effective interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds. In turn, it led to a drop in capital flows to developing countries, and a fall in the exchange rates of their currencies–what is known as the “taper tantrum”.

At the time, India had $292 billion in foreign exchange reserves, a current account deficit of $88 billion and capital inflows of $92 billion in 2012-13. There was no need for any panic. Yet it was seen as vulnerable; an analyst at the investment bank Morgan Stanley coined the phrase the “Fragile Five”, and included India in the list (others being Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey). The Indian economy suddenly was thrown into a panic and the RBI had to mount a rescue operation.

In March 2020, with the Covid pandemic, international investors fled developing countries to the safety of the U.S., even at the cost of accepting lower interest rates there: “Portfolio investors withdrew funds from developing countries’ equities and bonds on a scale and with a speed without recent historical precedent. These funds were redirected to the safety of developed country government securities, the chief beneficiary being the United States government.” During 2020 the U.S. government increased its borrowings by $4 trillion (keep in mind that India’s GDP is less than $3 trillion), but so much capital from across the globe rushed to invest in U.S. government bonds that the returns on the bonds actually fell.

After the 2013 taper tantrum, did developing countries such as India try to reduce their vulnerability to international capital flows by reducing their financial openness? On the contrary, UNCTAD points out.

Today in many countries, current account deficits are smaller than in 2013, and thus external capital inflows, including volatile portfolio inflows, appear to pose lower immediate risks. In several large developing economies, stocks of foreign exchange reserves have increased. Yet indicators such as current account positions and foreign reserves are limited in predicting vulnerability to short-run liquidity movements. Measures of financial integration provide a better gauge of potential exposures. On this measure, the picture is not substantially changed from 2013–many large developing economies remain financially open and thus vulnerable to sudden reversals in financial flows.

They have had large inflows of volatile foreign capital into their equity and debt markets. And so “At least some of the ‘fragile five’ remain exposed to monetary tightening in the the United States.” The chart below, from the UNCTAD report, shows the net flows of such capital to eight such countries, including India.

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Source: UNCTAD, Tapering in a Time of Conflict.

For all the present Government’s talk of “self-reliance”, it has systematically increased India’s financial openness to global capital flows. And it is through this channel that India faces the gravest risks in the present situation.

Notes:
1.↩ “War has forced fuel price hikes: Nirmala Sitharaman”, Times of India, March 26, 2022, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
2.↩“How war in Ukraine is reverberating across world’s regions”, IMF Blog, March 15, 2022, blogs.imf.org
3.↩ Website of Indian Oil Corporation, April 1, 2022.
4.↩ Alternatively, the price of a litre of diesel (Rs 92.72/litre, average of four major metropolitan cities of India) on March 31, 2021 was 23 per cent of one day’s per capita income in 2020-21 (Rs 399).
5.↩ RBI, Monetary Policy Report, April 8, 2022, p. 19.
6.↩ Ibid., p. 33.
7.↩ CMIE, “Inflation drives corporate sales”, February 28, 2022, www.cmie.com
8.↩ NielsenIQ, “Metros and pricing buoy India’s FMCG industry in Q3 2021”, January 5, 2022; Sagar Malviya and Ratna Bhushan, “FMCG likely to grow 9-10 per cent in 2020”, Economic Times, January 22, 2020.
9.↩ Harish Damodaran, “Government sets up ‘war room’ on movement of fertilisers”, Indian Express, October 22, 2021.
10.↩ “Black market for fertilizers is booming in India as prices soar,” Bloomberg, November 29, 2021.
11.↩ RBI, Monetary Policy Report, says that low fertiliser sales in January-February 2022 reflected “inventory de-stocking and lower imports amidst rising international prices”. (p. 40)
12.↩ Website of the Food Corporation of India.
13.↩ FAO, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021.
14.↩ National Sample Survey, Nutritional Intake in India 2011-12, NSS 68th Round.
15.↩ Jean Drèze and Anmol Somanchi, “The Covid-19 Crisis and People’s Right to Food”, May 13, 2021, osf.io
16.↩ Harish Damodaran, “Wheat stocks at three-year-low, but comfortable”, Indian Express, April 13, 2022.
17.↩ As far as possible, all figures in this article have been rounded off.
18.↩ RBI, Monetary Policy Report.
19.↩ vol. II, p. 105.
20.↩ Akash Prakash, “Fed hiking cycle: What next?”, Business Standard, March 28, 2022.
21.↩ Rajan Goyal, “Sustainable Level of India’s Current Account Deficit”, Reserve Bank of India Working Paper Series no. 16, August 2012. Similarly, in India’s November 25, 2019 Article IV Consultation with the IMF, the sustainable level is defined as -2.5 per cent of GDP.

https://mronline.org/2022/05/06/fall-ou ... s-economy/

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An Indian woman drinks water on March 29, 2022, during a fierce heat wave. (Photo: UNDP India )

India and Pakistan’s brutal heat wave poised to resurge
Originally published: Yale Climate Connections on May 5, 2022 by Jeff Masters (more by Yale Climate Connections) (Posted May 07, 2022)

Brutal, record-intensity heat wave that has engulfed much of India and Pakistan since March eased somewhat this week, but is poised to roar back in the coming week with inferno-like temperatures of up to 50 degrees Celsius (122°F). The heat, when combined with high levels of humidity – especially near the coast and along the Indus River Valley – will produce dangerously high levels of heat stress that will approach or exceed the limit of survivability for people outdoors for an extended period.

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Figure 1. Predicted temperatures for Pakistan and northwestern India at 12Z Thursday, May 12, 2022, from the 6Z Thursday, May 5, run of the GFS model. The model predicted temperatures of 45-50 degrees Celsius (113-122°F) over a large region. (Photo: weathermodels.com)

The latest forecasts from the GFS and European models predict an unusually strong region of high pressure intensifying over southern Asia in the coming week, bringing increasing heat that will peak on May 11-12, with highs near 50 degrees Celsius (122°F) near the India/Pakistan border. May is typically the region’s hottest month, and significant relief from the heat wave may not occur until the cooling rains of the Southwest Monsoon arrive in June. But tropical cyclones are also common in May in the northern Indian Ocean, and a landfalling storm could potentially bring relief from the heat wave.

Hottest March in record in India

According to the World Meteorological Organization, India recorded its hottest March on record, with an average maximum temperature of 33.1 degrees Celsius, or 1.86 degrees above the long-term average. Pakistan recorded its warmest March for at least the past 60 years. April was record-hot over northwestern India, and was the fourth-hottest April for all of India. The heat peaked on May 1, when Nawabshah, Pakistan, hit 49.5 degrees Celsius (120.2°F) – the hottest temperature recorded on Earth so far in 2022.

According to an excellent analysis by James Peacock of metswift.com, the current La Niña event in the eastern Pacific contributed to the March and April heat, by reducing the pre-monsoonal rains that typically fall. These dry conditions have led to abnormally high heat and wildfire conditions. In addition, Earth’s warming climate has brought conditions more favorable for more intense and longer-lasting heat waves. In northwestern India, the number of days with temperatures reaching at least 40 degrees Celsius (104°F) increased from 25 per year in the 1970s to 45 per year in the 2010s; the duration of the worst heat waves has approximately doubled.


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Figure 2. Critical wet-bulb temperature for young, healthy people in six different experimental scenarios. (Credit: Vecellio et al., 2022, Evaluating the 35°C wet-bulb temperature adaptability threshold for young, healthy subjects (PSU Heat Project), Journal of Applied Physiology, https://doi.org/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021)

Because of the heat wave, India’s wheat crop is expected to be 4% lower than the 2021 harvest, breaking a string of five consecutive record harvests. Even with the heat wave, India’s wheat exports could beat last year’s shipments, helping replace the lack of wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia this year. However, some traders project that export restrictions may occur in India because of the heat wave.

‘Unsurvivable’ heat occurred during the heat wave

While the heat index – which measures heat stress due to high temperatures combined with high humidity – is often used to quantify dangerous heat, a more precise measure of heat stress is the wet-bulb temperature, which can be measured by putting a wet cloth around the bulb of a thermometer and then blowing air across the cloth. The wet-bulb temperature increases with increasing temperature and humidity and is a measure of “mugginess.”

Since human skin temperature averages close to 35 degrees Celsius (95°F), wet-bulb temperatures above that critical value prevent all people from dispelling internal heat, leading to fatal consequences within six hours, even for healthy people in well-ventilated conditions. The U.S. National Weather Service defines the “Danger” threshold for wet-bulb at 24.6 degrees Celsius (76.3°F), and “Extreme Danger” at 29.1 degrees Celsius (84.4°F), assuming a 45% relative humidity.

However, experiments show that a wet-bulb temperature considerably lower—near 31 degrees Celsius (88°F)—is likely fatal for young, healthy people. A 2022 study, Evaluating the 35°C wet-bulb temperature adaptability threshold for young, healthy subjects, had participants swallow a tiny radio telemetry device encased in a capsule that measured their core temperature while performing tasks mimicking basic activities of daily life, until they could no longer maintain their core temperature without overheating. The experiment found that young, healthy adults could not survive extended exposure to wet-bulb temperatures of 30-31 degrees Celsius (86-88°F) in humid environments, and 25-28 degrees Celsius (77-82°F) in hotter, dryer environments (see the paper’s press release, and Figure 2). For older people, and those with health conditions, the critical wet-bulb temperature is likely even lower.

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Figure 3. Wet-bulb temperatures at 12Z April 30, 2022, over much of India and Pakistan exceeded 28 degrees Celsius—a dangerously high level. (Photo: meteorologix.com)

During the hottest portions of the day at the peak of last week’s heat wave, April 29-30, wet-bulb temperatures in northwestern India and eastern Pakistan regularly exceeded the critical threshold for young, healthy adults identified in the study. For example, at 12Z April 30 (Figure 3), the ambient temperature at Nawabshah, Pakistan, was 46 Celsius, and peaked at 47.4 degrees Celsius. At that those temperatures, the critical wet-bulb temperature is 27-28 degrees Celsius; the observed wet-bulb temperature was two degrees higher: 29-30 degrees Celsius. Coastal regions of India near the megacities of Kolkata and Mumbai had wet-bulb temperatures in excess of 30 degrees Celsius on multiple days of the heat wave.

Death toll at 26 for India’s 2022 heat wave

So far, 25 deaths resulting from the heat wave have been reported since late March in India’s Maharashtra state, which includes Mumbai. An additional heat death was reported on April 25 in the eastern state of Odisha. However, heat deaths are prone to undercounting. The World Health Organization estimated that India undercounted its COVID-19 deaths by about a factor of eight, which brings into question the veracity of India’s heat wave mortality statistics. Fortunately, India has learned to adapt to the increasing extreme heat in recent years, with lower death tolls occurring during heat waves (see Tweet below). One worrying aspect of the current heat wave, though, is the large-scale power outages that have occurred. With air conditioning availability reduced from power shortages, India’s ability to adapt to the high heat is reduced. Approximately 12% of India’s 1.4 billion people have air conditioning; the situation is similar in Pakistan.

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‘Unsurvivable’ heat increasing as result of climate change

A 2020 paper in the open-access journal Science Advances by Raymond et al., “Potentially Fatal Combinations of Humidity and Heat Are Emerging across the Globe,” identified 14 examples of 35 degrees Celsius wet-bulb readings that have already occurred since 1987 at five stations in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These conditions generally lasted less than six hours (see Bob Henson’s May 2020 post for details).

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Figure 4. Maximum values of wet-bulb temperature, TW, (degrees Celsius) for the period 1979-2017 at weather stations that had at least 50% data availability. (Image credit: Raymond et al., 2020, “The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance”, Sci. Adv. 6, eaaw1838 (2020) DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838)

Those researchers found that the frequency of wet-bulb values reaching 27°C, 29°C, 31°C, and 33°C across the world all showed doubling trends between 1979 and 2017. They predicted that dangerous wet-bulb readings will continue to spread across vulnerable parts of the world, affecting millions more people, as human-caused climate change continues.

Higher wet-bulb temperatures will be particularly dangerous in the Indus River Valley along the India/Pakistan border, where thousands of laborers work outdoors in pre-monsoon heat that can reach dangerous levels during April through July. Jacobabad, Pakistan (population 191,000), has already recorded six days when the wet-bulb temperature exceeded the limit of human survivability: 35 degrees Celsius.

A 2015 heat wave killed 3,477 people in India/Pakistan, ranking as the fourth deadliest heat wave in world history, according to the international disaster database, EM-DAT. Four of the 11 heat waves with a death toll in excess of 1,000 in the EM-DAT database have affected India and/or Pakistan. Below are the heat waves with a death toll exceeding 1,000, as compiled by EM-DAT (which uses direct deaths for their statistics, and not excess mortality). Note that heat wave death statistics are highly uncertain, however:

The 11 Deadliest Heat Waves in World History:

1) Europe, 2003: 71,310
2) Russia, 2010: 55,736
3) France/Belgium, 2015: 3,685
4) India/Pakistan, 2015: 3,477
5) Europe, 2006: 3,418
6) India, 1998: 2,541
7) U.S. and Canada, 1936: 1,693
8) India/Pakistan/Bangladesh, 2003: 1,472
9) U.S., 1980: 1,260
10) U.S./Canada, 2021: 1037
11) India, 2002: 1,030

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Re: India

Post by blindpig » Sat Jun 11, 2022 1:50 pm

Ominous economic distress in India: No buying power, no jobs, rising prices

The government is ignoring people’s distress and the worsening crisis – and it has no solutions

June 07, 2022 by Subodh Varma

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Recently released estimates of India’s economic output show that people are not spending enough. The only reason this can be is because they do not have sufficient income, and their buying power is limited. On the other hand, prices of all essential commodities are increasing at a disturbingly high rate. This will further restrict spending. Industrial production has grown at snail’s pace, and with people not having enough to spend, demand will continue to be low and industrial output too will languish. Bank credit for large industries is growing very slowly. So, prospects of any check on raging unemployment continue to be bleak because there is unlikely to be a fresh investment that would create jobs.

It is an ominous situation – and the Narendra Modi government, which is celebrating eight years of ‘sushasan’ (good governance), appears to be indifferent to it. All of their neoliberal prescriptions have failed spectacularly – tax cuts to the corporate sector did not spur new investment, squeezing funds on welfare schemes did not encourage private capital to move in, and putting public sector units for sale has not received many takers and hence not much disinvestment funds, opening up various sectors to foreign direct investment has not led to any boost to the economy and employment. In fact, the government’s policies have led to a tanking economy and widespread distress for people, which is sought to be salved by free food grain distribution.

No buying power

The provisional estimates for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fiscal year 2021-22 show that per capita Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) was Rs.61,215, down from Rs.61,594 two years ago, in 2019-20. During the pandemic year 2020-21, it had slipped to Rs. 57,279. PFCE represents spending by all non-governmental entities and hence includes all families besides business entities. Comparing it with two years ago is sensible because it shows that the spending has still not recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

What this means is that for a majority of the people of this country, there is no increase in their buying power. This is because either earnings have become very low or they are unemployed. High prices are further robbing them of their meager earnings. As a result, demand for products and services will remain low. PFCE makes up the most substantial part of the economy, making up 56.9% of GDP, the same as in 2019-20. Hence the whole economy can’t revive unless private consumption spending picks up.

What about government spending, which could have provided the requisite demand? Government spending (called Government Final Consumption Expenditure or GFCE) increased slightly in the pandemic year to 11.3% of GDP, but it has since declined in 2021-22 to 10.7%. In other words, the government has started pulling its hands back and restricting its expenditure. So much for the talk of all the beneficial schemes that one hears endlessly from the Modi government! Government spending would be the only way this crisis can be resolved, but the Modi government is shackled by its neoliberal dogmas, unable to lift itself out of the paralysis.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION SLUMP

As shown in the graph below, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has been showing very weak growth for the past year.

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The high growth rate for May 2021 and, to some extent, for the following three months are merely because growth is being computed in comparison to a year ago since then – and a year ago was May 2020, the lockdown that stopped all industrial activity. The next few months also reflect this base effect as the comparison is with the slowly reviving industrial activity in those months of 2020. However, once the base effect goes away, the real situation emerges – the IIP slumps to a very weak, almost negligible growth of 1-2% every month.

IIP measures a basket of different types of industrial output. If one looks only at the manufacturing sector, which forms the backbone of the economy, the growth is even weaker. For instance, in March 2022, when the overall index grew at 1.9%, the manufacturing sector grew at just 0.9%.

All this is meant to show that the industrial sector – especially the big corporate sector is not growing, thus causing the increase in unemployment and the prevalence of insecure, low paying jobs in agriculture or the informal sector.

The likelihood of growth in the coming months is bleak because, as we saw earlier, demand is low. This is confirmed by the fact that bank credit to the large industry is growing at a measly pace, according to Reserve Bank of India data. Loans outstanding to large industry increased by just 1.6% between April 2021 and April 2022. In the previous year, credit had slumped by -3.6% because of the pandemic. Credit to the MSME sector has grown by leaps and bounds, driven by the easy credit made available by the government to that sector as part of its pandemic management strategy. However, since there has been hardly any demand, the sector is still facing a crisis.

Rising prices and unemployment

This situation becomes even more desperate for people because of rising prices and continuing joblessness.

Prices of essential items of use – from food to fuels – have risen inexorably over the past years. This has led to cutbacks in consumption. Retail inflation, that is, the rise in prices of what common people pay for various commodities or services, was recorded at 7.73% in April 2022. Within this general rise in prices, food items have increased more, topping off at 8.03% in the same month.

As shown in the chart below, based on data from the Reserve Bank of India, retail inflation has zoomed up since September last year.

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2021-22 has become the year with the highest average yearly wholesale price increase in the past decade at 13%. Much of this increase is driven by fuel prices, which accounted for 25% of the jump in wholesale prices. Petrol and diesel prices have risen mainly due to the imposition of excise duties by the Modi government, which saw this as an easy way of raising resources. Price rise is actually direct robbery – it is the transfer of resources from the pockets of common people to rich traders and industrialists.

Meanwhile, unemployment continues unabated, having remained over 6.5% since September 2018, that is for 44 months continuously, according to CMIE. This includes the almost 25% rate of unemployment that was hit in April 2020, as the lockdown was imposed unexpectedly in India. In May 2022, average unemployment was clocked at 7.2%, while urban unemployment was higher, still at 8.2%.

The combination of these features has become an unbearable burden on the Indian people – and there appears to be no hope of any relief soon because the Modi government is only planning more of the same policy prescriptions

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2022/06/07/ ... ng-prices/

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Not a Single Rupee Spent on Development of Adopted Villages by Modi from MPLADS Funds (Photo: thecognate.com)

The Indian economy is heading for a stationary state
By Prabhat Patnaik (Posted Jun 11, 2022)

Originally published: Peoples Democracy on June 12, 2022 (more by Peoples Democracy) |

ADAM Smith and David Ricardo had been haunted by the idea of capitalism ending up in a “stationary state”, by which they meant a stable state of zero growth. Marx used the term “simple reproduction” to describe such a state, where there is no net addition to production capacity and the economy just reproduces itself at the same level period after period. The Indian economy appears headed for such a state.

The Modi government’s propaganda machine, as usual, is working overtime to paint a rosy picture of the economy; but the reality is the very opposite. This propaganda uses a simple arithmetical trick. If output falls, say, from 100 to 90, then the fall is 10 per cent; and then if it recovers next year to 100, then the increase is 11.1 per cent (because of the lower base). The rate of increase (11.1 per cent) being higher than the rate of fall (10 per cent) allows the false claim that the economy has resumed its growth trajectory; in fact it has shown no growth at all over the two year period. Such a false claim is precisely what the government is resorting to.

Let us completely forget 2020-21, the year when the pandemic was acute, and just take the preceding and the succeeding year. Between 2019-20 and 2021-22, the gross domestic product in real terms increased by just 1.5 per cent, which was lower than the population increase (2 per cent) between these two years; per capita real GDP was thus lower in 2021-22 compared to 2019-20.

The ingredients that went into the making of this stagnation are worth examining. Consumption (namely, private final consumption expenditure in real terms) was about 1.5 per cent higher in 2021-22 compared to 2019-20, while gross fixed capital formation in real terms (that is, gross investment in real terms other than changes inventories) was 3.75 per cent higher. The somewhat higher rate of growth of investment than of consumption was because of a bunching of investment projects that had been postponed from the days of the lockdown; it could also perhaps have been because of replacement and modernisation expenditure in some sectors. In either case this higher rate cannot be maintained for long. As the rate of growth of investment comes down, the rate of growth of consumption will come down too (because of what economists call the “multiplier” effect, namely because the lower investment will reduce output and hence employment and consumption demand), which will push the economy even more emphatically towards a stationary state or simple reproduction. The economy, already virtually stagnating (and retrogressing in per capita terms) is thus moving firmly into a state of absolute stagnation (and hence even greater retrogression in per capita terms).

When the economy is in such a state of absolute stagnation, it becomes very difficult for it to get out of this state. The reason is simple. The total GDP is necessarily equal to private final consumption expenditure, plus gross investment, plus net exports (namely exports minus imports of goods and services), plus government consumption. Let us for the moment ignore the last two items; let us also ignore that part of investment which is meant for producing goods and services for the export market. Then, if the economy is experiencing stagnation, there is no reason for consumption to increase as it basically depends on the level of income; it would therefore continue to experience stagnation. Investment too will not increase because there is no reason for firms to enlarge capacity, as the economy, and by inference the home market, has been stagnant. Unless therefore at least one of the three expenditure items that we have ignored so far, shows an autonomous spurt, namely a spurt autonomous of the home market, the economy will continue to remain mired in a state of stagnation (or even negative growth until a state of stagnation is reached).

Now, net exports will not suddenly show an upward spurt, as the world economy itself is stuck in stagnation, so that the external demand for Indian goods has no reason suddenly to increase; and under the neo-liberal regime the government will not suddenly impose high tariffs or other protectionist measures in order to reduce India’s imports. Precisely for the same reason investment for the export market or for import substitution will not show any upward spurt. And as for government expenditure, since the government is committed to keeping the fiscal deficit in check, as a proportion of GDP, unless tax revenue as a proportion of GDP increases suddenly, government expenditure can hardly show a trend different from the GDP. Even here if tax revenue as a proportion of GDP rises because of indirect taxation which largely impinges on private consumption, there will be no net addition to demand: the rise in government consumption as a proportion of GDP in this case will be largely offset by a fall in private consumption as a proportion of GDP. Exactly the same holds for government expenditure financed by larger direct taxes imposed on that segment of the population which consumes the bulk of its income.

Only that increase in government expenditure therefore can have the effect of overcoming the state of stagnation which is financed either through a larger fiscal deficit relative to GDP, or through an increase in the rates of direct taxes on the rich. The latter course includes either larger taxes on corporate incomes or larger taxes on private wealth. But these ways are precisely what the government has steadfastly refused to follow. It has remained more or less committed to the fiscal deficit limit; and, far from larger taxes on the rich, it has been giving tax-concessions to the corporate sector in the utterly mistaken belief that such concessions will revive the economy by increasing investment.

This belief is mistaken for two reasons. First, even assuming, for argument’s sake, that corporate investment increases through such tax concessions, this will be offset by the reduction in government expenditure owing to reduced government revenue, thereby preventing any net increase in aggregate demand and hence thwarting any revival of the economy. Secondly, corporate investment depends on the growth of demand in the economy and not on tax concessions; if demand in the economy is not increasing, then tax concessions given to capitalists are simply pocketed by them without their undertaking any additional investment.

It follows that if the economy is caught in the grip of simple reproduction, then it becomes extremely difficult for it to come out of it within the confines of a neo-liberal regime. This is not a specifically Left argument; it is an argument that would be accepted by anyone not interested in ideological obfuscations. Not surprisingly, even some honest liberal economists have been making this very point.

It may be thought that since the output of the agricultural sector is not determined by demand-side considerations, but is autonomously determined, with government stock-holding picking up the excess of output over demand, a rise in agricultural output can introduce an autonomous source of growth into the economy as a whole; and that this will prevent it from settling down at simple reproduction. This is certainly a logical possibility, but the figures of GDP growth between 2019-20 and 2021-22 that we have given already include the agricultural sector’s growth rate. Hence unless there is a sudden acceleration in the growth rate of the agricultural sector, nothing will break the stagnation. And within a neo-liberal regime, one of whose main characteristics is to squeeze peasant agriculture, there is no reason to expect an autonomous acceleration in agricultural growth rate. The tendency for the economy to settle down at a state of simple reproduction therefore remains unimpaired.

If for some reason there is an adverse movement in income distribution while the economy is in simple reproduction, then that, far from lifting the economy from simple reproduction, would cause a recession, namely a negative rate of growth, which ultimately would take the economy to another, new, state of simple reproduction, with a higher level of the unemployment rate. This would be because such an adverse shift in income distribution would have the effect of lowering the level of aggregate demand through a lowering of consumption, as the poor have a higher consumption per unit of income than the rich.

The tendency towards simple reproduction in the Indian economy under neo-liberalism, is indicative of the fact that neo-liberalism has reached a dead end, not just in India but in the world as a whole.

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Re: India

Post by blindpig » Sat Jun 25, 2022 2:09 pm

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“Heads I Win, Tails You Lose”
By Prabhat Patnaik (Posted Jun 23, 2022)

Originally published: Peoples Democracy on June 19, 2022 (more by Peoples Democracy) |

THE craftiness of imperialism is boundless. In several countries of the world at present there are neo-fascist governments, propped up by their respective big bourgeoisie (all aligned to globalized capital), and implementing neo-liberal policies with their characteristic ruthlessness; in many other countries, there are neo-fascist outfits attempting to get into power by promising to their big bourgeois patrons that they would do the same if in power. A neo-liberal-neo-fascist alliance in short has become quite pervasive.

Such a neo-liberal-neo-fascist alliance has become necessary because the crisis of neo-liberalism has made the usual breezy assurance no longer credible, that “everybody would eventually become better off through neo-liberal policies”, which had sustained such policies for so long: when the economy becomes stagnant, “trickle-down” scarcely carry any conviction. Harsher measures are needed therefore to keep the working people suppressed and these have to be camouflaged by fomenting inter-religious, inter-ethnic, and other similar conflicts. This is where neo-fascist outfits come in; they revel in fomenting such conflicts.

An alliance with neo-fascism however is useful to neo-liberalism not just for this reason but for an additional one as well. Neo-fascist outfits in power, though useful for neo-liberalism, cannot overcome the crisis of neo-liberalism. Measures of State intervention that could possibly stimulate aggregate demand, so that the crisis of over-production relative to shrinking demand, that increasingly shrouds neo-liberalism could be overcome, are invariably opposed by globalised capital: it wants neither taxes on the rich nor larger fiscal deficits, the only two ways of financing larger State spending that could create a net expansion of demand. Even neo-fascist governments, therefore, notwithstanding their divisive agendas, tend to lose popular support as the crisis deepens. When this happens, the crisis of neo-liberalism is invariably blamed exclusively on neo-fascism, and people are encouraged to settle scores with neo-fascism, not with neo-liberalism.

It is not difficult for the Bretton Woods institutions that control the intellectual discourse of most third world countries in matters of economic development, indeed the discourse on development economics in general, to promote the suggestion that neo-fascism alone is what lies behind the crisis; and this suggestion finds ready takers among the radical intelligentsia which is, quite justifiably, opposed to the neo-fascists anyway. In fact, blaming the crisis exclusively on neo-fascism becomes, quite understandably, attractive even to a section of the Left, since the neo-fascist promotion of hatred against a hapless minority, its constriction of democracy, and its attack on the working people, make the channelisation of popular anger against it a matter of the utmost priority. What is more, not making neo-fascism the exclusive target of attack for the economic travails of the people, runs the risk of being branded as a sign of equivocation, even pusillanimity, in the fight against neo-fascism. Those shying away from making neo-fascism the exclusive target can be accused of shielding the most reprehensible, the most obnoxious, the most bigoted, right-wing elements in society.

In this process, however, since neo-liberalism is kept hidden from view, even if neo-fascist elements are thrown out of power, the way remains clear for a new liberal, non-fascist, government to come to power, which continues to follow neo-liberal economic policies. But since such a new government too cannot overcome the crisis for reasons we have discussed, the way remains open for the neo-fascists to return at some later date when the people have gotten tired of the liberal government that succeeded the neo-fascist one. Thus, politics is sought to be pushed into a situation where the government alternates between neo-fascist and liberal political formations, both committed to neo-liberalism; and the working people continue to suffer the horrors of economic crisis.

India offers a classic example of this phenomenon. The current Modi government had come to power in 2014 when the people had just started experiencing the economic crisis, by putting the entire blame for the crisis on the weakness and non-performance of the previous liberal government of Manmohan Singh and making no reference to neo-liberalism. On coming to power, the Modi government pursued neo-liberal policies with a vengeance, even as the crisis got intensified, unemployment kept increasing and the people’s incomes kept falling. Their growing misery is shown by the fact that the National Sample Survey (NSS) revealed, according to newspaper reports, a 9 per cent decline in the per capita real consumption expenditure in rural India between 2012-13 and 2017-18, a finding so startling that the government prohibited its publication, and suspended the NSS in the form in which it had been conducted since its very inception shortly after independence under the stewardship of the great statistician P C Mahalanobis.

The pandemic made matters worse. But even after the abatement of the pandemic, unemployment today is worse than in any year since independence, inflation is raging with a fury not seen in recent years, and the slide of the exchange rate has brought the rupee to its lowest levelever against the dollar. Popular protests against economic hardships are rising, but the bulk of the protestors put the blame exclusively on the economic policies of the Modi government, without any reference to the neo-liberal regime. The Modi government no doubt is culpable for the acute and unprecedented economic crisis, but its culpability lies primarily in its enthusiastic and ruthless adoption of neo-liberal policies.

True, it has also implemented some utterly absurd and mindless measures on its own, such as the sudden demonetisation of almost 85 per cent of the value of the currency in circulation. This brought acute hardship to people and crippled the petty production sector, without an iota of benefit to the economy; but it can hardly explain the enormity of the current economic crisis. Likewise, the government implemented the Goods and Services Tax which also dealt a crippling blow to the petty production sector. But the GST was promoted by the World Bank, and it had been mooted by the Manmohan Singh government itself; all that Modi did was to proceed along that route with its usual ruthlessness. The crisis however can scarcely be explained by the GST, even in conjunction with demonetization.

Whatever measures in short can be attributed to the government, outside of the framework of neo-liberalism, cannot on their own explain the crisis, no matter how harmful they might have been. This is obvious and underscored by the fact that India is not the only country experiencing an economic crisis; the crisis is pervasive, afflicts an entire swathe of third-world countries, and is the fallout of pursuing neo-liberal policies. And yet amazingly there is scarcely much mention of neo-liberalism when discussing the crisis in each country. Sri Lanka’s crisis is attributed to the follies of the Rajapaksas; India’s crisis is attributed to the follies of the Modi regime; Africa’s crisis is attributed to the Ukraine war that adversely affected world grain supplies; and so on.

Herein lies the immense craftiness of the present imperial arrangement. For imperialism the situation is akin to “Heads I win, tails you lose”. As long as the going is smooth, the credit for it goes to the neo-liberal regime, which is claimed to have accelerated GDP growth rates; but when a crisis hits, the blame for it is laid at the door of neo-fascism with which the neo-liberal regime has hitched up. This hitching up thus plays a dual role: first, it bolsters the neo-liberal regime by pitting the majority against some hapless minority, by stoking hatred on grounds of religion or ethnicity, so that behind this smokescreen the corporates can be given even larger concessions; and, secondly, it has an easy scapegoat available when the people revolt.

In Marathi playwright Vijay Tendulkar’s play Ghasiram Kotwal, the wily Nana Fadnavis, minister of the ruler of Pune, uses a tyrannical henchman to carry out all the oppressive measures of his administration; but when the people finally rise up in revolt against these measures, he sacks this henchman and earns popular acclaim. Neo-fascists in the third world are like this henchman Ghasiram: they do immense damage to society when in power, through their fascistic measures even as they uphold neo-liberalism; and they can be dispensed with when the people get angry without any damage to neo-liberalism.

To look at neo-fascism withoutits economic moorings, to ignore the fact that the neo-fascist government is actually based on a neo-liberal-neo-fascist alliance, and, in general, to look at politics as a self-contained sphere unconnected to the economy, is a liberal trait that the Left must not imitate.

https://mronline.org/2022/06/23/heads-i ... -you-lose/

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Reduction of the term of service in the army sparked mass protests in India
06/18/2022
Military service is the only chance to get out of poverty

The Ministry of Defense of India has decided to reduce the term of contract service from 17 to 4 years, followed by dismissal without pensions and benefits. This innovation caused a wave of mass protests, accompanied by riots and violence, TASS reports . The power department explains the reform by the need to reduce the cost of retirees and increase the professional level of military personnel. The police are trying to disperse the protesters with tear gas and batons.

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In 2022, it is planned to recruit about 45,000 Indians aged 17 to 21 to serve in the army. In 4 years, the vast majority of them will be fired without a pension or benefits. Only 25% will be able to continue their military service.

Demonstrations swept the states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar and the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. During the riots, two passenger trains, the office of the ruling party, and cars were burned. Due to the blockade of railways by the protesters, 40 trains were canceled.

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It is understandable that people are not outraged by the fact that they are now allowed to defend the borders of India for only 4 years. Not patriotism and not the desire to go under the bullets caused the riots and confrontation with the police. For a huge number of ordinary Indians, military service is almost the only chance to receive reasonable money, providing a normal life for themselves and their families. The reform threatens them to be left without work at the age of 21-25.

A similar situation is observed with us. For many young Russians living in the provinces, contract service is also often the only way to escape poverty and acquire their own housing. True, so far the Russian state has no need to somehow seriously limit the flow of those wishing to join the ranks of law enforcement agencies. And more recently it's even been the other way around.

As long as power is in the hands of a wealthy minority, neither the "main patriots" nor their offspring will create a line of volunteers at the military registration and enlistment offices, climb into tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, clear roads and sit in trenches under fire from large-caliber guns. They don't even think about going to military school. They will provide such “happiness” to children “who do not fit into the market”, and they themselves will calmly “manage” banks and factories , stuffing their bottomless pockets. And their state will look for ways to "save" on their former defenders. Though in Russia, even in India, even in the USA .

https://www.rotfront.su/sokrashhenie-sr ... mii-vyzva/

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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