Turkey

[blindpig]

Turkish Communist Party supports vigil to save Akbelen forest from takeover by energy giant

YK Energy, a private energy company in Turkey, has been trying to occupy 780 acres of forest land in Akbelen to mine coal for running three neighboring power plants

August 02, 2023 by Peoples Dispatch


(Photo: Bianet)

On Tuesday, August 1, Turkish security forces brutally repressed a vigil to protect the Akbelen forest. The vigil began following a government decision on July 24 allowing the private power company YK Energy to clear the forest land for the expansion of a coal mine. Hundreds of villagers and environmental activists have been protesting in the country’s south-west Mugla region for over a week now.

On Tuesday, hundreds of security forces surrounded the site of the vigil for hours and later fired tear gas and water cannons at the protesters, resulting in multiple injuries. They also arrested over a dozen activists who were later released.

Activists claimed that the clearing of the forest resumed immediately after the police brutality. Internet connectivity has been restricted in the region.

The vigil was organized by local villagers, the Confederation of Public Employees Union, students groups, and local NGOs. They have been subjected to constant police repression throughout the week.

Scores of activists led by Communist Party of Turkey (TKP) and other trade unions protested against the state repression in Akbelen on Tuesday and expressed solidarity with the protesters. Speakers raised slogans against the privatization of public resources and the destruction of the environment.

Claiming that privatization of natural resources is the leading cause of unplanned expansion which causes harm to the environment, TKP Central Committee member Savas Sari said that “market domination in the energy sector must come to an end to stop this foolishness that is harmful for the country and society.”

Several other prominent figures like novelist Elif Shafak and unions, including the Confederation of Revolutionary Trade Unions in Turley (DiSK) and the European Federation of Public Service Union (EPSU), expressed support for the people’s struggle to save the Akbelen forests.

A long struggle to protect the environment
YK Energy, a private energy giant, has been trying to occupy 780 acres of forest land in Akbelen to mine coal for running three neighboring power plants. The company was granted permission by the state in 2020. However, local residents went to court against the decision and a vigil was set up at the site in July 2021. The authorities granted permission recently for the mining activity despite the lawsuit.

Villagers and activists claim that the expansion of the coal mine will destroy the forest and facilitate the looting of the region’s natural resources by private players. The forest is a significant source of water for their farmland and the mining will destroy their sources of livelihood, they claim.

The existing power plants in the region have also faced opposition. According to a report last year, these plants have been responsible for environmental pollution and health hazards which caused the untimely death of over 68,000 people, with thousands also suffering from pollution-related diseases.

A court had ordered the shutting down of the power plants as far back as in 1997, Middle East Eye reported.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/08/02/ ... rgy-giant/

Red is the real green.

Better Red than dead.

[blindpig]

A Sino-Turkish balancing act: Economy vs geopolitics

The geopolitical competition between Beijing and Ankara challenges their mutually harmonious Silk Road initiatives. As western pressure on China and its Asian periphery increases, will NATO-member Turkiye choose growth and development over a hegemonic clash?


Erman Çete
AUG 7, 2023


Photo Credit: The Cradle

In the highest-level meeting between Chinese and Turkish officials since 2011, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi - also a Politburo Member of the Communist Party of China's Central Committee - late last month to Ankara.

Per Turkish accounts, the dominant agenda on the table was the advancement of mutually-beneficial economic issues. After their private discussion, Turkiye's president expressed his desire to fast-track efforts to align China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with Turkiye’s Middle Corridor Initiative (MCI) and to launch the first meeting of the High-Level Working Group established for this purpose.

However, Chinese media's portrayal of the event suggested a deeper geopolitical agenda. According to CGTN, Erdogan told Yi that Ankara does not support NATO’s intensifying campaign in the Asia-Pacific region, and is willing to maintain communication and coordination with Beijing on international and regional issues such as the Ukraine crisis.

The report noted that recent US-China tensions were also referenced, with Erdogan confirming that “Turkiye adheres to the one-China principle and believes that China's development is not a threat.”

The significance of this meeting lies in the growing trade volume between Turkiye and China, which surged by over one-third between 2015 to 2021 (from $27.3 billion to $36 billion), according to the Turkish ministry of foreign affairs. While Turkiye once aspired to emulate China's success, it now serves as a semi-developed raw material exporter to its vastly more advanced counterpart. Turkiye exports various goods, including marble, metals, and ores, while importing high-tech products like phones and data processing machines from China.

Beijing’s recognition of Turkiye as a regional power

The confluence of the BRI and the MCI represents more than just economic ties; it indicates a broader geopolitical realignment. Shanghai-based strategic analyst Shaoyu Cen believes that China recognizes the need to collaborate with regional powers to successfully implement the BRI, telling The Cradle:

“As long as Turkiye helps stabilize this region and enhance the connectivity, China would be glad to see it play an important role as a regional power. If it can balance the US on some issues, it would be even better.”

For Cen, the main obstacle in the way of more cordial Sino-Turkish relations is the Uyghur issue in China’s Xinjiang region. “Turkiye always criticized China on the issue for years. Some Turks even viewed Xinjiang as a part of the pan-Turkism ambition,” says the analyst. Nonetheless, dreaming of interfering in Xinjiang “is exactly an act of overreaching for Turkiye.”

Today, Ankara finds itself at the intersection of conflicting east-west geopolitical interests, particularly regarding the Asia-Pacific region. Umit Alperen, a Visiting Professor at Taiwan's National Chengchi University, informs The Cradle that Ankara’s approach to the Asia-Pacific is primarily economic, rather than political or security-centered:

“NATO’s increasing interaction with QUAD and AUKUS as well as Japan and South Korea in the Indo-Pacific does not ‘directly’ serve Turkiye’s interests. It is no longer a secret that the main objective of NATO’s increased activity in the Indo-Pacific is to limit China’s sphere of influence in the region. Turkiye does not want to be a ‘visible’ part of NATO who is going beyond its own sphere, a force that limits China.”

For Alperen, although Turkiye has not yet mended its relations with the west, it is natural that it does not want to antagonize China in regions that are not in its direct sphere of interest.

However, Ankara faces a delicate balancing act: NATO-member Turkiye cannot overtly resist NATO's Asia-Pacific strategy due to its deep economic ties with countries like Japan and South Korea. Turkiye’s defense industry also shares a significant partnership with South Korea.

According to Alperen, it is unlikely that Turkiye would oppose the inclusion of South Korea and Japan in NATO’s Asia-Pacific strategy: “Turkiye will probably not oppose NATO’s Indo-Pacific strategy, but will give its silent support.”

Overlapping Silk Road initiatives

The Middle Corridor is a rail-based transportation route, connecting Europe through China, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkiye. This corridor, known as the Trans-Caspian East-West-Middle Corridor Initiative, is a crucial component of the historical Silk Road revival. For Turkiye, the Middle Corridor represents the realization of a long-standing pan-Turkist dream: a direct connection to Central Asia through Caucasia.

In the context of China’s BRI, the Middle Corridor serves primarily as a supplementary route. However, for Turkiye, it holds greater significance as it strengthens its ties to Turkic states in Central Asia. This interconnectedness between the BRI and the MCI also poses challenges as it brings China and Turkiye into competition over European trade.

Alperen tells The Cradle: “For the European market, China’s and Turkiye’s products are not complementary to each other, but rather alternatives.” He posits that the increase in China’s market share in Europe causes a decrease in Turkiye’s market share in Europe, and this goes for North Africa, West Asia, and Central Asia markets, too.

In recognition of these dynamics, prominent Turkish businessmen proposed in 2020 to use Turkiye as the US’s gateway to Africa, countering China's influence in the continent. The Chairman of the Turkiye-US Business Council (TAIK), Mehmet Ali Yalcindag, wrote a letter to Republican Senator Lindsay Graham suggesting that:

“Joint ventures in Africa could be an exciting part of this plan. Not only would we be helping fragile economies that will need assistance in recovering, but we also would be striking a blow against Chinese designs in Africa and forging closer economic ties between Turkey and the US.”

The intensified competition between Chinese and Turkish construction firms has played out in Africa for a decade, in which Turkish companies have blamed China for “unfair competition” in the continent. In 2019, struggling Turkish contractors feared being swallowed by cash-abundant Chinese firms. But today, some analysts suggest that Turkish companies are now “nipping at China’s heels across the continent.”

NATO’s limited role in Asia

In Cen’s point of view, NATO does not actually have any “serious plans” in Asia, and regional countries do not believe NATO will actively engage in conflicts “close to the giant,” given China’s proximity.



Some NATO members, driven by “anti-China hysterics,” may seek involvement near China, but Cen believes it wise for Turkiye to distance itself from such impulses. To which Alperen adds this insight:

“China does not pose a visible problem for Ankara on major issues such as Cyprus, the Aegean, the Eastern Mediterranean and Syria, which Turkey regards as its priority areas of interest.”

While an alliance or close friendship between Turkiye and China may be unrealistic, Ankara’s refusal to become a yes-man for the west holds value for Beijing. Turkiye’s independent and influential regional power status makes it a precious friend of China.

Meanwhile, Beijing continues to closely monitor Ankara’s increasing influence in the Caucasus - particularly after the Second Karabakh War in 2020 - and its growing influence on Central Asian countries, which still raises concerns about Pan-Turkic imperialism.

Turkiye’s balanced approach between the US and China, as well as its growing influence in Central Asia, provides leverage for Ankara in its relations with China. NATO's expanding presence in the Asia-Pacific region could also elevate Turkiye’s role as an important actor in global affairs.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/a-sin ... eopolitics

******

NATO Imposes the Yoke. The SCO Brings Freedom and Equality.
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on AUGUST 7, 2023
Adnan Akfirat


Türkiye should immediately leave NATO and join the SCO and BRICS to protect its sovereignty, territorial integrity and ensure the development of its national economy!

The motto “America must not leave us, otherwise Russia will come” was used by far-right organizations in Turkiye in the 1970s that were governed by the US Gladio.

Thankfully, it is no longer possible to openly defend America. The “conservative” parts of Turkiye have been dramatically freed from the US’s intellectual control after the coup attempt on July 15th, 2016, was crushed. It became very evident that the NATO and US are adversaries of the Turkish state and people.

It is noteworthy the supporters of the US and NATO in Turkiye are trying to disguise themselves as anti-Russian and anti-Chinese. Moreover, Americanism now manifests itself in the form of denigrating international organizations in which Turkiye can take part as an independent and sovereign country, equating them with NATO.

However, the BRICS and the SCO are the opposite of NATO and the EU, moreover, they are as well as the antidote.

You have to give up sovereignty when joining NATO and the EU

The BRICS and SCO are becoming more successful and influential. The world is now multipolar because of the success of these two organizations.

That sworn NATO and EU propagandists and G7 officials persistently spread the lie that the BRICS and the SCO are just variants of NATO and the EU is an attempt to obscure the most important fact of our time.

And, unfortunately, their “enablers” in Türkiye are constantly trying to draw parallels between the SCO and NATO. However, the BRICS and the SCO are completely different organizations from NATO and the EU, not only in terms of their programs but also in terms of their rules, functioning, and goals!

In fact, the summits and other events of the SCO and BRICS are not at all like NATO and the G7, where countries always think alike and speak with the same voice on every issue.

In alliances like the G7 and NATO, everyone depends on “a single leader”. The reality that their summits only ratify the choices previously made in Washington is hidden by the joyful look they give off. This is why President Erdoğan’s statements before every NATO summit are reversed when he attends the summit.

The reason why the SCO and BRICS summits are different is that these organizations are truly institutions of sovereign states and each member legitimately defends its own national interests and preferences.

NATO is an offensive organization, not a defensive one

NATO was established to keep Europe under US control. From its inception, it was an offensive organization, not a defensive one. Parallel states within its member states have been established as “Super NATO” organizations to ensure that NATO members remain under the control of the US. The March 12, 1971, and September 12, 1980, military coups and the July 15 2016 coup attempt in Turkiye are the bitter proofs of this.

NATO promotes “free market” economics, liberalism, and Western individualistic and consumerist culture in order for the US to retain global dominance. It has dubbed itself the guardian of the ostensibly “Free World” in order to establish these principles as dominant. From the outset, it is exclusive, antagonistic, and confrontational. While maintaining control over its member nations, it deems itself authorized to intervene in the internal affairs of other countries and does so on a regular basis. When it fails to obtain the intended outcomes, it resorts to armed action to accomplish its goals.

NATO is a legally bound alliance. It has given itself permission to defend the interests of the United States. Members that join NATO or the EU give up their sovereign rights to these organizations.

Sovereignty is not surrendered in the BRICS and the SCO

In contrast, the SCO and BRICS are built on the “Shanghai Spirit” philosophy of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for the diversity of civilizations, and the pursuit of common development. It is open to all and is ready to cooperate with countries around the world on the basis of these principles. It embraces consultation and inclusiveness in decision-making and operates on a consensus-based model. Every nation is sovereign and being a member of BRICS and SCO does not limit its sovereignty.

The SCO is able to accommodate Pakistan and India despite their great differences and even conflicts because of the “partnership while preserving sovereignty” attitude. China and India have border conflicts but work in harmony in both the BRICS and the SCO.

The SCO is special in that the hierarchy of the group is not based on the allocation of power among its members. Since the organization’s inception in 2001, none of the original member nations has taken the initiative to draft the organization’s guidelines. The SCO doesn’t have a “master” who makes everyone abide by the organization’s regulations!

Each new circumstance determines how the SCO’s rules should be written. As a result, it is unavoidably an extremely flexible framework. No one is holding anyone back or balancing the other within the SCO and BRICS.

We are dealing with an entirely new kind of organization in the SCO and BRICS. Every step of the SCO is an entirely novel event that has never occurred in the annals of world politics.

Thus, after 22 years of development, the SCO has turned into a “big family” with nine member states, three observer states, and 14 dialogue partners, totaling 26 members. Also, Turkiye is part of this big family.

BRICS, on the other hand, already has half of the world’s population and a quarter of the world’s production. BRICS, which will expand with the accession of Argentina, Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Guinea-Bissau, and Indonesia, has become a successful alliance of the oppressed southern countries.

The Ukraine conflict showed the difference between NATO and the SCO

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the difference between NATO and the SCO. Although Russia is a member of the SCO and BRICS, all member states of both organizations are free to make independent decisions and take independent positions on the war. There is no pressure from BRICS or the SCO to take a particular position.

In NATO and the EU, on the contrary, the opposite is imposed. NATO members are forced to follow NATO policy determined by the US. Likewise, the EU forces its member states to follow the US policy and attempts to punish dissenters like Hungary.

Neither BRICS nor the SCO has a military arm. SCO members also take joint decisions on military matters.

In its current structure, the SCO is a typical defense-oriented organization that primarily addresses regional issues. According to its charter, the organization does not pursue any aggressive or expansionist goals. On the contrary, one of the main goals of the organization is to maintain internal stability against terrorism, separatism, and extremism. It is not only possible but also necessary for the largest countries in Asia to cooperate in the fight against terrorism in order to prevent regional conflicts.

Respect for civilizations is essential

The SCO and BRICS promote respect for different cultures and values rather than imposing certain values. This is why they can incorporate Chinese, Indian, Persian, Russian, Turkish, Latin, and African civilizations. NATO and the EU are predominantly Christian clubs. Within the BRICS and the SCO, Muslims, Christians, Buddhists or those with no religious beliefs exist on an equal footing. All civilizations, all religions respect each other without the superiority of anyone.

BRICS and SCO, do not pursue a policy of defending only the interests of the Western bloc and creating another bloc against it, like NATO and the EU.

Development and peaceful coexistence are the core values of the SCO and BRICS. It promotes cooperation among members in various areas such as joint development, free trade, economic linkages, mutual exchange, easy access, digital economy, energy, poverty, and climate change. The fundamental principle is development through sharing.

The guarantee of peace and stability in Eurasia

By establishing and operating regional multilateral cooperation mechanisms, the SCO is a means for the countries of the Eurasian continent to confront global tyranny together. The SCO is gradually becoming the decisive power of the Eurasian continent. In the coming period, the SCO will expand into the West Asia region. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt have announced their readiness to join the organization. Turkey’s SCO membership is becoming a necessity.

Belarus from Europe is also on its way to joining the group. It is foreseeable that the SCO will one day become an international organization covering three continents – Asia, Africa, and Europe – with the largest territory and the largest population of any regional organization.

For a region as diverse in religions, cultures, and ethnicities as the Eurasian continent, inclusiveness rather than exclusivity is a key condition for the success of multilateral cooperation mechanisms.

China supports SCO and BRICS for shared prosperity

As a founding member of the SCO, China attaches importance to, supports, and encourages the development of the SCO and BRICS. Although still a developing country, China offers generous economic opportunities to other member states. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently launched the “China-Shanghai Cooperation Organization Forum” to develop the “Digital Economy Industry”. The forum is tasked with accelerating digital transformation among SCO and Belt and Road countries. China is also assisting member states by accelerating the construction of the “Green Silk Road” and the “Digital Silk Road” through various initiatives.

In 1933, Ataturk heralded: “Harmony and organizations of the age of cooperation”

It is clear that the SCO and NATO are completely different organizations, from their conceptualization to their objectives and operations. The SCO and the BRICS are the common structures through which the common aspirations of humanity can be realized.

BRICS and SCO are organizations that represent the period of harmony and collaboration prophesied by the Turkish Republic’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, in his address in March 1993:

“Look at the sun that will now rise in the east. As I see the dawning of the day today, so I see the awakening of all the nations of the East from afar. (…) Colonialism and imperialism will disappear from the face of the earth and will be replaced by a new age of harmony and cooperation among nations, without any distinction of color, religion or race.” (1)

The BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), autonomous and equitable groups of oppressed nations, are where Turkiye currently has a role in the global community. The national direction is to withdraw from NATO and the EU, which have made it clear that their intentions are to destroy the Republic of Turkey, undermine our sense of identity, and establish the Second State of Israel on our borders under the guise of “Free Kurdistan.”

Türkiye should immediately leave NATO and join the SCO and BRICS to protect its sovereignty, territorial integrity and ensure the development of its national economy!

1. Atatürk’ün Bütün Eserleri (Collected Works of Ataturk), Kaynak Publishing House, 2006, vol.26, p.144.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2023/08/ ... -equality/

[blindpig]

Turkey's manufacturing sector - who owns it?
August 18, 2023
Rybar



Our recent publications on Turkey's foreign policy activities have provoked many questions about the state of the Turkish economy, what effect Erdogan's policy has on the real manufacturing sector, and what is the degree of influence of foreign, primarily Western, institutions in the country's economic structures.

For the overall picture, we also recommend that you read past articles in which we have already analyzed the topic of the impact of the world's largest investment funds on the Turkish economy :

How the US is preparing to buy Turkish assets

How possible accession to the EU will affect the Turkish economy

Türkiye and the EU

Despite the extremely difficult situation with gold and foreign exchange reserves and high inflation, which has amounted to more than 30% since the beginning of the year, the manufacturing sector and the economy as a whole look quite confident. This may indicate a high degree of penetration of foreign capital into the Turkish economy, which is now a proxy platform for large companies.

Turkey is the EU's seventh largest trading partner, accounting for 3.3% of total EU merchandise trade with the world in 2022 (imports and exports combined).

The EU is by far Turkey's largest import and export partner for goods. In 2022, 26% of Turkey's imports of goods came from the EU and 41% of its exports of goods to the EU.

The total volume of trade in goods between the EU and Turkey in 2022 amounted to 198.1 billion euros (3.6% of the total EU trade with the world).

The total volume of trade in services between the EU and Turkey in 2021 amounted to 24.2 billion euros, which is 1.2% of the total trade in services of the EU. Imports of services to the EU amounted to 11.4 billion euros, and exports - 12.8 billion euros.

Statistical data do not allow us to conclude that the Turkish economy rests only on tourism and port infrastructure. The manufacturing sector is also developing quite dynamically, but mainly due to foreign specialists and technologies .

When assessing the productive potential of Turkey, it is necessary to take into account the local mentality. The society of Turkey is still at the stage of development of late feudalism . And manual labor in this paradigm is considered extremely unprestigious. It is considered prestigious to fight and trade, and trading during the war is synonymous with success and foresight . Perhaps understanding this mentality will help explain the ambivalent position of Turkish politicians on many issues.

Initially, the Turks strive to take a leadership position , not even a very high level, but excluding manual labor. Work in the hotel business and logistics is especially respected, since services are provided there, and there is the possibility of additional “gray” earnings. Therefore, the manufacturing sector itself is being developed by foreign companies using their technologies, management systems and personnel training. And many large multinational companies are ready to bear these costs, taking into account the geographical position of Turkey and the prospects for entering the Middle East markets.

The results of the reform of the Turkish education system
Over the past 20 years in Turkey, the main emphasis has been on training specialists with at least basic knowledge. The policy of the Ministry of National Education (MoNE) was focused on the training of specialists of lower and middle level. The main emphasis was placed on the accessibility of school education . The 4+4+4 education system, adopted in 2012, has made a significant contribution to raising the level of school education in Turkey. The secondary enrollment rate, which was 44% in 2000, has risen to 88% in 2019. The program of the Ministry of Education was personally supervised by Recep Erdogan, and this result is considered a major achievement. The direction of university education has mainly developed through internships and study abroad.

This reduced the cost and time of modernizing the education system, and deliberately created a vacuum at higher levels of management that was quickly filled by overseas executives and expats. Lower wages compared to the EU, relatively affordable resources and energy, the absence of a strong trade union movement and a green lobby created a competitive advantage that was taken advantage of by large European, American and even Japanese companies.

Market potential of the Middle East region
Investments in Turkey have developed in the paradigm of a free trade zone , in which it is convenient to place production under the control of foreign management at minimal cost. And to supply finished products to the EU, the countries of the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and Central Asia. German experts estimate the potential of the market, which can be accessed through Turkey, at 1.5 billion people . This is a key factor in attracting investment.

Anchor tenants of the technopark "Türkiye"
Large-scale investments in the Turkish economy by business giants have been carried out, despite active hostilities in neighboring Syria, since 2012.

That year, Ford Motor moved part of its production capacity to Turkey. Otosan , a joint venture between the American automaker and the Turkish conglomerate Koç , was created and manufactures cars in the city of Gölcük in the province of Kocaeli bordering Istanbul.



At that time, Ford management tried to minimize the losses of its European divisions, which amounted to more than $ 3 billion per year. The Southampton van plant and related Dagenham stamping shop were liquidated, cutting 1,400 jobs and ending Ford production in the UK.

Ford announced the closure of a large car plant in Genk (Belgium) at the end of 2014. In total, Ford has cut 6,200 jobs and reduced European manufacturing capacity by 18% to save $450 million to $500 million a year.

The Volkswagen Group was planning to assemble the next-generation VW Passat and Skoda Superb budget models at a new plant in Turkey. The plant in Manisa, 40 kilometers northeast of Izmir, was to have a maximum production capacity of 300,000 vehicles per year. The volume of investments was estimated at the start of the project at $ 1.1 billion. And although the project was subsequently postponed due to the pandemic, the Volkswagen Group maintains its strong presence in the Turkish market.

Mercedes has a bus manufacturing facility in Istanbul. Foreign companies producing cars in the country include Fiat, Renault, Hyundai and Honda .

Manufactured by Toyota Motor Manufacturing Turkey INC . located in Arifiya/Sakarya.

The Swedish company IKEA has been working since 2021 to optimize supply chains around the world by moving more production to Turkey.



Kerim Nisel, CFO of IKEA, said the company is trying to locate more production in Turkey after the pandemic. In an interview with Reuters, he drew attention to the strategic vulnerability of many multinational companies that have located their production in Southeast Asia. The world production system was too unbalanced, which led to strong dependence, primarily on Chinese manufacturers.

Now transnational companies (TNCs) are considering Turkey as a partial alternative to China , due to its geographical location. Although there are still many obstacles along the way.

Despite the efforts of the Ministry of National Education, the problem of skilled workers remains relevant, since the Turkish mentality has remained unchanged. To expand production, foreign companies have to make the most of automation, and sometimes bring in personnel to work on a rotational basis.

The problem of integrating refugees into the Turkish economy

In Turkey, there is a problem of accommodation and integration of refugees from the Middle East, the number of which is about 3.6 million people, and about 90% are refugees from Syria. The refugee case is a subject of bargaining between the Erdogan government and the European Commission. The subtleties of this elegant racket are outlined in a World Bank report . EU representatives want to see Turkey as a buffer zone that takes the brunt of migrants. The Erdogan government estimates its cost of acting as a buffer between 2011 and 2022 at $50 billion, while European officials have allocated only 6 billion euros and promised to allocate another 3 billion in the future.

Over such a long period, refugees have increased their presence not only in the southern, but also in the central provinces of Turkey. Due to their limited inclusion in state education programs, they are mainly represented in the low-paid segment of the labor market, which allows them to be used in various industries.

However, some refugees create small and medium enterprises in Turkey and make some contribution to the economy. Building Markets estimates that Syrians have invested more than $500 million in capital in Turkey through the creation of 2,776 business ventures.

On average, Syrian SMEs work in Turkey for 5 years. The majority of enterprises operate in the sectors of wholesale/retail trade (34.2%), manufacturing (26%), tourism and catering (8.9%). These enterprises employ an average of 7 full-time employees.

Prospects for the development of the Turkish economy

Today, it is very likely that big business considers Turkey not only as a local alternative to China in terms of production. Rather, Turkey's strategic position makes it a convenient proxy hub for the supply of food, goods and energy to the EU and the Middle East region .

Already, the Turkish flour milling industry and related industries are actively increasing their food market share in both Europe and the Middle East. The implementation of the gas hub project began, quite expectedly, with the creation of infrastructure for the stock exchange . In the future, part of the turnover of European energy exchanges (for example, ICE ) may go there . Energy supplies not only from Russia, but also from part of the Middle East region can be closed to the gas hub in Turkey . Turkey also has every chance of becoming one of the main transit channels for the export of Russian and Belarusian fertilizers .. When transferring technologies, equipment and training/delivery of personnel, assembly plants for household appliances and consumer goods can be deployed in Turkey for subsequent delivery to the EU. At the same time, similar industries in the EU are disconnected from cheap energy, and in the future they will most likely become unprofitable after the total introduction of carbon quotas, wallets for the population and rising prices for them.

Unlike Europe, Turkish manufacturers will definitely not have problems with cheap energy and labor, protests from the "green" and pressure from trade unions. Therefore, representatives of the collective West are now making a lot of efforts to establish total control over the Turkish economy.

After the elections, a new head of the Central Bank was appointed , whose duties include preparing Turkish assets for sale . This was stated almost openly by the head of JP Morgan. Recently, a meeting was held between the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen , and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as well as a telephone conversation with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel. The main topics, in addition to the distracting case of Sweden's accession to NATO, of course, were the migration crisis and the EU-Turkey customs agreement. By a completely coincidental coincidence, the former head of Turkish intelligence was appointed head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and shortly after this appointment, British intelligence officials opened a Migration Control Center in Turkey .


As a result of these actions, Turkey is very likely to become a shell for a technopark of Western companies in the coming years , which will control most of the consumer, energy and food markets in the EU and the Middle East . As for the supply of cheap labor and the control of migration flows and terrorists, European diplomats will apparently have to negotiate already in London.

Such large-scale actions of the collective West are aimed at countering the Chinese initiative "One Belt One Road" , as well as the Russian gas hub project . The strengthening of the role of British intelligence in the management of Turkey does not bode well for bilateral relations between Turkey and Russia. The split in the EU's relations with China is brought in by partisan and short-sighted politicians such as George Meloni and Robert Habek . These are quite serious and large-scale problems that require attention at the state level.

The EU internal market has now moved into the category of colonial possessions of TNCs, most of which are associated with the US. The new owners are actively developing the occupied territories. And the Turkish economy, as a base for production, will play one of the key roles in establishing total control over Europe.

Rybar

https://rybar.ru/proizvodstvennyj-sekto ... nadlezhit/

Google Translator

[blindpig]

The unshakeable Putin-Erdogan nexus

The Ankara-Moscow relationship challenges western expectations: Here is a unique model of cooperation among regional powers, built on mutual interests, respect, and the recognition of each country's independent foreign policies and strategic autonomy.

MK Bhadrakumar
SEP 6, 2023


Photo Credit: The Cradle

What makes a power relationship intriguing in international relations is that it is never quite static, and its delicate equilibrium demands constant nurturing, balancing acts, and fine-tuning. Turkish-Russian relations fit neatly into this paradigm.

The 10-month hiatus in a face-to-face interaction between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at their Sochi meeting on 4 September was unnatural, given the torrent of vital geopolitical events that have transpired in the interim.

Since the two heads of state last met in Astana last October, Moscow has gained the upper hand in the battlefields of Ukraine; the so-called grain deal involving Russia and Ukraine, brokered by Ankara under UN auspices, ran its course; security of the Black Sea region touched a new level of criticality as the Anglo-American obsession with Crimea surged; and, above all, Erdogan secured another term as president, which puts him in the hot seat to reverse Turkiye's financial and economic crisis.

Foundation of Russia's relations with Turkiye

In the full flush of his election victory, Erdogan made certain efforts to mend fences with the west, signaling a willingness to agree to Sweden’s induction into NATO and showing solidarity with Ukraine. In moves that could seriously upset Moscow, Ankara wantonly released Azov commanders who were captured by Russia in Mariupol last year and announced an intent to jointly produce weaponry with Ukraine.

Nonetheless, Moscow reacted cautiously. The Kremlin could afford to mark time since this is also an asymmetrical relationship where Russia holds the upper hand. Moscow could sense that Erdogan was not really “pivoting” to the west, but was rather showing an interest in improving western ties which had soured in recent years -and its outcome remains far from certain.

Basically, Russia’s relations with Turkiye are fortified by the warm personal equations between Putin and Erdogan, and both leaders are consummate realists with shared interests and a keenness to challenge Western dominance in regional politics. Moscow is only too well aware that Turkiye’s hopes for membership in the European Union remain a far-fetched dream.

The “body language” of the meeting in Sochi confirmed that there is no change in the verve of the personal relationship between the two leaders. Television footage showed the two men smiling and shaking hands upon Erdogan’s arrival at Putin’s residence, where the Russian president suggested that his guest take a vacation in the Black Sea resort.

Game-changing grain export deal

In his opening remarks, Putin put Erdogan at ease by reassuring him upfront that the Russian offer to create a global “energy hub” in Turkiye is very much in the cards and will materialize soon.

However, the icing on the cake is the proposed agreement that would facilitate free exports of grain from Russia to six African nations with the help of Turkiye and Qatar. In Erdogan’s presence, Putin announced:

“We are close to completing agreements with six African states, where we intend to supply foodstuffs for free and even carry out delivery and logistics for free. Deliveries will begin in the next couple of weeks.”

The political and geopolitical resonance of this decision in Africa is simply immeasurable — Russia is offering, on the one hand, the Wagner Group as gatekeepers, and on the other hand, food security for the continent. In one fell swoop, western propaganda was trashed, with some help from Ankara.

Erdogan, on his part, expressed confidence that Russia would “soon” revive the Black Sea grain deal, while also echoing Putin’s stance that the west had betrayed its deal commitments with Russia. Equally, he distanced Ankara from rival western plans to send grain across the Black Sea - which now becomes a non-starter. As he put it:

“The alternative proposals brought to the agenda could not offer a sustainable, secure and permanent model based on cooperation between the parties like the Black Sea Initiative.”

Significantly, Erdogan voiced optimism that he still believes a solution can be found soon to revive the grain deal, including filling the remaining gaps.

The Turkish president was accompanied in Sochi by a large delegation that included Turkiye's defense, foreign, energy, and finance ministers, as well as the central bank chief who met his counterpart separately to carry forward negotiations on a payment system in local currencies. Which Erdogan publicly supported when he said:

“I believe that switching to local currencies is extremely important in bilateral relations.”

Russia’s respect for Turkiye’s sovereignty

Indeed, trade is the locomotive of the Russian-Turkish relationship, registering a massive increase of around 80 percent to touch $62 billion. Five million Russian tourists visited Turkiye this year. Putin voiced satisfaction that he and Erdogan have raised the relations to a “very good, high level.” Interestingly, Putin singled out the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant - Turkiye's first, built by the Russians - which will be fully operational next year, as he described Turkiye as a new member of the “international nuclear club.”

These are measured words, no doubt. The message out of the Sochi talks is that Russian-Turkish relations have gained maturity. The summit followed last week’s talks between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Moscow.

Later, in the presence of Fidan, Lavrov spoke at some length and with extraordinary clarity about Russia’s policies towards Turkiye. The salience lies in Russia’s profound appreciation of Tukiye’s independent foreign policy, “which is geared towards its own national interests,” resisting Western pressure.

Lavrov said Turkiye’s “constructive and equitable interaction” with Russia is not only mutually beneficial economically and advantageous, but also strengthens “the sovereign basis” of Turkiye’s foreign policy. Lavrov expressed the hope that Turkiye “will continue to respond with reciprocity despite pressure from the United States and its allies who seek to pit everyone against the Russian Federation,” concluding:

“The effectiveness of our policy dialogue and economic cooperation will continue to depend on mutual willingness to consider each other’s concerns and interests and to seek to balance them. Our Turkish partners possess the necessary strategic vision. We will continue to adhere to approaches based on mutual respect and a balance of interests.”

An Equal and Evolving Partnership

Evidently, Lavrov spoke with great deliberation and purpose. What emerges is that although NATO-member Turkiye has not yet sought membership in the expanded BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) — unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Egypt — Russia nonetheless gives pivotal importance to Turkiye given its strategic autonomy, which is both a game changer in regional politics and a trendsetter.

His remarks show the futility of assessing power relationships in terms of hierarchy. Not once did Lavrov claim ideological affinities with Turkiye. Rather, Turkiye’s robust independence from US hegemony under Erdogan’s leadership is what matters most to Russia. Does that qualify as a strategic partnership? The jury is still out.

Russian-Turkish relations are anchored on mutual interest and mutual respect, where differences do crop up every now and then, but both take care to prevent them from snowballing into disputes. It was Putin’s turn to travel to Turkiye, but instead Erdogan came calling. There is no junior or senior partner in their equal relationship.

The relationship with Turkiye has evolved into an interesting vector of Russian foreign policies, which is, of course, consistent with its vision of multipolarity. It can also provide a new model for Russia’s relations with other west-leaning regional powers, given the prevailing geopolitical uncertainties. As Lavrov stated recently, Russia is willing to cooperate with any country that treasures its independence.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-u ... ogan-nexus

[blindpig]

Ambassador will not return to Ankara under Erdogan: Israeli FM

Recently, Erdogan made remarks comparing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler

News Desk

DEC 29, 2023


(Photo Credit: GPO/Shlomi Amsalem)
The Israeli Foreign Minister, Eli Cohen, disclosed on 29 December on X, that Tel Aviv's ambassador will not resume duties in Ankara as long as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to hold the presidency in Turkiye.

This follows Erdogan's recent remarks regarding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, comparing him to Adolf Hitler over his government's brutal response to Hamas' retaliatory military operation on 7 October.

At the time, Israeli Prime Minister had responded to Erdogan's remarks, claiming that Erdogan who "staged the genocide of the Kurds and holds the record for the number of detained journalists opposing his regime, is the last person who can lecture us."

Erdogan has previously described Israel as a "terror state" and called for its leaders to be tried in international courts.

Since the start of Israel's bombing campaign of the Gaza Strip, Erdogan has consistently remarked that Tel Aviv's government must be held accountable for its aggressive tactics. Currently, over 21,000 Palestinian civilians in Gaza have been killed by the Israeli forces, more than half of whom are women and children.

Despite Ankara's criticism of Tel Aviv, Turkiye has continued to engage in trade relations with Israel, leading to disapproval from both opposition parties and Iran. Ankara has reported a significant decline in its trade activities with Tel Aviv since 7 October, as goods exchanges between the two regional countries have decreased by 50 percent.

In October, with exports of Turkish goods to Israel ongoing, journalist Metin Cihan revealed in a post on social media that over 200 ships carrying cargo of crude oil, fuel, iron and steel were headed to Tel Aviv.

Before the recent conflict, Turkiye and Israel had intensified diplomatic efforts to mend their strained relationship, pausing these endeavors only after October. Despite the historical tensions between them, the two nations maintained robust trade connections, with their trade volume reaching an all-time high in 2022.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/ambas ... israeli-fm

It is a testimony to the Zionist's touchy arrogance that they would react so. Even otters know that Erdogan's bluster is 90% directed to his internal audience, who chafe because of their nation's less than substantial support of Palestine. 'Friend Recep', as the Russian's amusingly call him, is currently supplying the Zionists with strategic commodities like oil. But no criticism of the ongoing ethnic cleansing/genocide is permissible, however two-faced. Will these mad savage bastards shoot themselves in the foot? The Turkish people will ultimately decide, they could force Friend Recep's hand....

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/ambas ... israeli-fm

Turkiye arrests dozens of suspected ISIS members

According to Turkish intelligence, among those arrested were senior ISIS members planning attacks against synagogues, churches, and the Iraqi embassy in Turkiye

News Desk

DEC 29, 2023


(Photo Credit: Qatar News Agency)

Turkish security forces arrested 32 people suspected of having ties to ISIS and plotting an attack against synagogues, churches, and the Iraqi embassy in Turkiye, officials said on 29 December.

The Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) reportedly identified senior members of ISIS among those arrested as Mejbel Al-Shweihi, codenamed Abou Yakeen Al-Iraqi, and Mohammad Khallaf Ibrahim, codenamed Abou Laith, who were specifically planning attacks on synagogues and churches in Turkiye.

Another member, Ihab Elaani, codenamed Abdullah Al-Jumaili, was plotting a terror attack on the Iraqi Embassy in Turkiye.

The coordinated operation was conducted at dawn by MIT and Turkish police across nine different cities.

Various digital materials belonging to ISIS were also confiscated during the operation.

The same day, Turkiye’s National Defense Ministry noted that the Turkish Air Force targeted Kurdistan Workers Party fighters (PKK) militants in northern Iraq and Syria along the nation’s borders.

The defense ministry said that 10 PKK members, eight in Syria and two in Iraq, were “neutralized,” adding that "Nowhere is safe for terrorists!”


The militants killed in Syria include a senior PKK member who, according to the MIT, was determined to be somewhat responsible for the actions of groups carrying out attacks on Turkish armed force bases in the Operation Euphrates Shield and Peace Spring zones.

Turkiye’s recent ISIS arrests come one week after Turkish security forces arrested over 300 people who allegedly have links to extremist groups.

“We will not tolerate any terrorists for the peace, unity, and solidarity of our beloved nation. We will continue our fight uninterruptedly with the superior efforts of our security forces,” Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said.

The national defense ministry had mentioned previously that Ankara has “neutralized” over 2,000 PKK militants since the beginning of the year, including members hiding out across the border in Iraq and Syria.

https://new.thecradle.co/articles/turki ... is-members

[blindpig]

Incirlik problem
January 6, 16:57



Incirlik problem

Remember how the Turks demanded that the Americans leave the Incirlik military base? So recently there was a leak of the American-Turkish government. correspondence revealed the fact of the transfer of rights to use the largest military base by the Prime Minister and now President of Turkey Erdogan.

The materials published by WikiLeaks clearly show that Erdogan, who actively opposed military action in Iraq, secretly made major concessions to the Americans in 2003.

Incirlik AFB is the location of the 39th Air Force Base Wing. In official documents you can find the regiment’s own description: “...projecting global power through strategic deterrence and flexible support . ” It sounds powerful, to say the least.

The base houses up to 5,000 US Air Force personnel. The United States uses the base as a jump-off airfield and a transit point on the way to transfer weapons from all over Europe to the Middle East.

For example, the United States is likely using the base to transport weapons to Israel - a week ago, a C-130J Hercules military transport aircraft spotted taking off from the Incirlik base was heading to the United Kingdom air base in Cyprus , but both London and Washington refused ( https://www .declassifieduk.org/incirlik-is-yours-how-turkeys-erdogan-handed-major-military-base-to-the-americans/ ) to clarify whether the American C-130 carried weapons for Tel Aviv.

Incirlik Air Base is used ( https://t.me/istanbul_wolf/2454 ) for surveillance and reconnaissance in the interests of Israeli aviation; it is at this base that four MQ-9A and two MQ-1S UAVs are located.

In this context, Erdogan’s statements in defense of Palestine and all Muslims, and threats against the United States and Israel look completely comical.

https://t.me/istanbul_wolf/2544 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/8877148.html

Google Translator

'Friend Recept' is such a sleazy weasel that he could work for the State Department.

[blindpig]

SECURITY THREAT: OTTOMANISM, ISLAMISM, KURDISM, TURKISM, AND IMPERIALISM
Posted by MLToday | Jan 22, 2024

BY THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF TURKEY (TKP)
January 13, 2024



The TKP Central Committee issued a statement on the recent PKK attack on the operation zone of the Turkish Armed Forces in Northern Iraq, in which soldiers were wounded and lost their lives and drew attention to real security threats for the working people in Turkey.

On the evening of January 12, many soldiers were killed and wounded. The attack did not take place within Turkey’s borders, but instead beyond them.

We know that the real reason for Turkey’s military presence in foreign lands, especially in Syria and Iraq, is the insatiable greed for profit of the capitalist class.

And we also know that the capitalist class has seized an unprecedented opportunity with the AKP [Erdogan] government to satisfy their expansionist ambitions; it has been able to revise the basic references of foreign policy of the Republic with a neo-Ottomanist approach, and thus it has had the audacity to create the ground to justify its military presence in foreign countries.

This bloody game, which disregards the territorial integrity of other countries, is put into play under the pretext of “Turkey’s security”. The borders necessary for the security of our country are wanted to be drawn on the territory of other countries.

We ask: Is Turkey more secure now after all these years of cross-border operations?

Has this foreign policy approach been able to protect Turkey’s border security, the peace and welfare of the people, urban centers, squares and streets from explosions of bombs?

On the contrary, these operations, the objectives of which are vague, the duration of which is uncertain, the content and details of which are hidden from the public, and which are confined to unfavorable military conditions, have reached a point where the territorial integrity of neighboring countries as well as the safety of soldiers’ lives have been disregarded. Turkey cannot base its security on its presence in an area where many regional and international powers are engaged in fierce competition and conflict.

Turkey’s military presence in foreign countries creates space for all kinds of agents of imperialism, jihadist groups, and an understanding that sees the existence of the Republic of Turkey as illegitimate to get a foothold and maintain their activities in Turkey. Just as it is mandatory to expel all foreign military bases and personnel, it is equally mandatory for the government to end its military presence abroad.

Turkey’s borders with Iraq and Syria are no longer clear where they begin and end, to a degree that even it can be said they have been erased.

The source of the attacks is clear; they are claimed by the PKK [an armed Kurdish separatist group] . Looking at this picture, the approach that is compressed into the “fight against terrorism” in its crudest form insists on ignoring the consequences of continuing the fight against the PKK on the territory of other countries for years. Moreover, such a view does not allow the wrong domestic and foreign policy, the relations with the USA, Turkey’s NATO membership or the injustices and inequalities in Turkey to be put on the agenda.

Today, the PKK must be questioned and condemned in terms of its political strategy, goals, allies and methods. The well-known practices of the AKP government and the injustices suffered by the Kurds from past to present cannot cover up this fact.

The political power, which is determined not to take any responsibility for the loss of soldiers, is also obliged to explain where and why our young people were deployed. We will not allow Turkey’s grave problems to be put in the fridge and out of sight under the pretext of the “fight against terrorism”.

Those who fight against the foundation and existence of republic in Turkey, on the one hand, refer to and operate according to Sevres by coming to terms with Lausanne, and on the other hand, they go back to the Ottoman Sultan Abdülhamids and hide behind the tales of “regional power”. Those who are enemies of the Republic clearly share the world view of Ottomanism in common.

Large segments of society are being pushed into false ideological alignments such as Turkism, Islamism and Kurdism, and the Republic of Turkey is being dragged towards disintegration.

The cost of the left’s engagement, rapprochement or sympathy with any of these ideological lines in one form or another will be very high.

The expansionist reflex of Turkish capitalism, blended with neo-Ottomanist ideology, has become a hypocritical “security” doctrine that legitimizes Turkey’s intervention in the internal affairs and sovereign rights of other countries.

No country’s security can be physically ensured from within the borders of another country. This position is not only principled, but also corresponds to the concrete reality: Turkey’s military presence in Syria and Iraq threatens the security of our country. The AKP government hides from our people what it means for Turkey to maintain its military presence in these countries without an agreement with the governments of these two countries.

The real source of the military presence in foreign countries, which is justified by the security of the country, is the search for profit by big companies in Turkey. Today, a significant part of the capitalists who are making big money in the Kurdish region of Iraq have “nationalist” tendencies. For the Turkish companies that will want to grab a share in the reconstruction of Syria tomorrow, the filling of their own coffers will be decisive, not the security of Turkey or our people.

Enough is enough! Turkey is too valuable for us to be handed over to two or even three mindsets that are positioned as if they are against each other but in fact feed each other.

We will not allow more of our young people to be sacrificed to imperialist ambitions, we will not allow Turkish, Kurdish and Islamist foci to put the people of Turkey into a process that could be very dangerous, we will not allow nationalist rhetoric developed with hatred to alienate Turkish society from reality!

We will change the social system based on exploitation that dominates Turkey. But we will never allow the Republic of Turkey to be declared illegitimate, to be seen as a political unit that must be abolished.

Today, all pro-Kurdist, pro-Turkist and pro-Islamist orientations in Turkey are making a joint contribution to a process that will result in the loss of the legitimacy of the Republic of Turkey.

Our duty here is to defend the values that will unite the whole country, our working people, leaving out a very small minority of this country, that is, the exploiters and parasites. TKP will say its word in this direction and will not be part of the destructive discourse that threatens our people and our country. It is this rotten social system of exploitation that we must destroy.

Our condolences to our people…

Communist Party of Turkey

Central Committee

https://mltoday.com/security-threat-ott ... perialism/

[blindpig]

The Economy Finally Doomed Erdogan in Major Defeat in Turkish Local Elections. What Comes Next?
Posted on April 8, 2024 by Conor Gallagher

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been in power since 2003, when he assumed the post of prime minister. He was elected president in 2014 and re-elected twice since, most recently last year.

Throughout that time he has used identity issues to his advantage, but cracks in this strategy were evident before last year’s national elections. He managed to patch over them largely due to a feckless opposition campaign, but they were fully exposed in the country’s March 31 local elections. The problem is those identity issues work well when the economy is humming along – not so much during a cost-of-living crisis. The growing economy was always likely the biggest part of Erdogan’s appeal while the identity issues helped on the edges. But in the March 31 local elections both came undone.

Erdogan wasn’t on the ballot, but his ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party lost the popular vote for the first time since 2002 – largely due his backers’ disillusionment with the ongoing economic downturn and the government response to Israel’s war in Gaza. The drop in turnout from the 2019 local elections hit Erdogan’s AKP party the hardest:



So what is the economic situation that dampened enthusiasm among Erdogan voters?

Despite the Turkish economy growing by 4.5 percent last year, many are struggling to pay for food, utilities and rent as inflation continues to hover around 70 percent.

Inflation has been a problem around much of the world since the pandemic began and was worsened by the war in Ukraine. While most central banks raised interest rates in response, Erdogan pushed for an interest rate cutting spree. Inflation went through the roof as a result and continues to stick around 70 percent, making it some of the worst in the world.

The government continued to pursue an expansionary fiscal policy ahead of last year’s presidential election in order to help Erdogan get across the finish line, but has since enacted a tight monetary policy. On March 21, Türkiye’s central bank raised interest rates to 50 percent.

What had been Erdogan’s greatest strength for years – the economy – has now become his biggest weakness as he’s mostly blamed for forcing the nominally independent central bank to start slashing borrowing costs in 2021.

The fall of the Turkish lira continues to place major strain on the economy in three primary ways. From Gulcin Ozkan, a professor of finance at King’s College:

First, a significant part of Türkiye’s imports are inputs used in the production process, particularly of vehicles, machinery and mechanical appliances that make up nearly half of the country’s exports. Any fall in the value of the lira will push up input costs and hence prices, reducing the competitiveness of the country’s exports.

Second, Türkiye imports a substantial part of its energy from abroad. In much the same way, any depreciation of the lira will make it more expensive to import energy.

Third, Türkiye is sitting on substantial external liabilities in foreign currency terms. This makes the depreciation of the lira even more costly. Any loss in its value magnifies the amount of resources required to repay a given level of foreign currency liabilities.

Erdogan’s ruling alliance was punished at the polls as a result. Here were the biggest winners from the elections:

The New Welfare Party

The attempt by Erdogan to use the war in Gaza to distract from economic woes failed. He has tried to present himself as a leader of the Muslim world with more harsh rhetoric towards Israel, but voters noticed that was all it was: rhetoric. Oil still flows from Azerbaijan to Israel via Turkiye, and the Incirlik air base in Turkiye is still used by the US to deliver weapons to Israel, and the Türkiye Wealth Fund recently shipped 21 tons of boron to Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd, a large Israeli chemical company known for supplying the Israeli military.

Some members of the government defend Türkiye’s ongoing trade with Israel, saying that any attempt to stop it would upset the markets and hurt Türkiye more than Israel. The AKP was hurt as a result.

The Islamist far-right New Welfare Party (YRP)took a hardline stance against Israel over the war in Gaza and became the third largest party nationwide with 6.19 percent of the vote and won 60 municipalities.

The party left Erdogan’s ruling People’s Alliance and campaigned on ending trade with Israel and increasing the lowest pension to 20,000 liras ($625).

The Republican People’s Party

The biggest winner, however, was the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which is now the largest in the country, controlling 36 of the country’s 81 provinces – almost double what it had before the election.

Most worrying for Erdogan is how the CHP expanded its reach into conservative strongholds. The CHP successfully made the election a referendum on the economy and won as a result.

The incumbent Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was reelected despite major efforts over the years to halt his rise (Imamoğlu has been embroiled in a lawfare case for the past two years for allegedly insulting the judges in the Supreme Election Council for their decision of canceling the mayoral election results in 2019).

He is now seen as the opposition’s best bet at winning back the presidency from Erdoğan’s AKP in 2028. Many thought he should’ve been the candidate in last year’s presidential election.

Should he run, he likely won’t be facing Erdogan, as more changes to the Turkish constitution that would allow him to run again and remain as president past 2028 are now unlikely. Even before the defeat, Erdogan had suggested that the 2023 election that saw him re-elected president with 52 percent of the vote would be his last. That looks much more likely now. And Imamoglu appears to be the clear frontrunner for the presidency.

Imamoglu talks a lot about “restoring democracy” and “change.” In practice that’s mostly about lessening the amount of power wielded by the president’s office, which has increased considerably under Erdogan. Beyond that, Imamoglu is credited with being charismatic. Selim Sazak, the head of Sanda Global, an Ankara-based consultancy that advised several campaigns during the local elections, told the Guardian that Imamoğlu’s political brand is a blend of charisma and his Black Sea roots as “Bill Clinton from Trabzon … without the infidelity.”

Less favorable views of Imamoglu point out that he has accomplished little despite big promises in Istanbul. Turkish journalist Ismail Yasha writes at Middle East Monitor:

Imamoglu is also backed by the Istanbul bourgeoisie, Western media and European embassies. Moreover, some voters who themselves or whose parents moved from the Black Sea regions to Istanbul may vote for him based on regional affiliations, as Imamoglu was born in the Trabzon province. In addition, there is a percentage of voters who are expected to vote for him simply to spite the AK Party, due to their frustration with the performance and decisions of the Turkish government run by the party led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

There have been a lot of premature declarations that this marks the beginning of the end of Erdogan and the AKP. While Imamoglu and the CHP won on the back of a mismanaged economy, Erdogan missteps, and ruling coalition infighting, there are reasons to temper expectations.

Erdogan’s coalition still runs the national government, and unless early elections are called, 2028 is a long ways away. In a national election foreign policy plays a large role, which benefitted Erdogan last year.

The CHP must still square the circle between their westward gaze and the Turkish public which is increasingly turning its back on the West.

It’s entirely possible, if not likely, that Erdogan would have lost last year’s presidential election had the opposition campaign not been so feckless. The economy was already in tatters, but the election became just as much about foreign relations and Türkiye’s place in the New Cold War as the cost of living crisis.

CHP candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu represented closer ties with the West. He paid visits to the US, UK, and said Western money would pour into Turkiye should he win – a claim backed by western financial institutions. According to Bloomberg, “Vanguard Says Erdogan Loss Would Make Türkiye Bonds Loved Again.”

Despite not presenting any evidence, Kilicdaroglu alleged Russian interference in the campaign. Not only did this distract from the opposition’s winning issue (the economy) but it was problematic because Turks by and large are no longer looking West.

They resent being strung along for years and looked down on by the EU. They don’t trust the US – at all. A December poll by the Turkish company Gezici found that 72.8 percent of Turkish citizens polled were in favor of good relations with Russia. Compare that to the nearly 90 percent who think the US is a hostile country. The millions of Russian tourists showing up since Western sanctions and helping to keep the economy afloat in the last few years surely doesn’t hurt. Erdogan was able to paint Kilicdaroglu as a Western stooge, and is now in office until 2028 while Kilicdaroglu was retired.

Despite being a more nimble politician, should Imamoglu be the CHP candidate in the next national elections, he could face the same pitfalls that Kilicdaroglu did.

For one, if the CHP aligns with Kurdish parties in order to attract more votes, they open themselves up to attacks from the right as happened last year.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party’s (DEM Party) decision to field its own candidates in the recent local elections and refrain from forming an alliance with the CHP. This move prevented Erdogan’s party and others in the governing alliance from being able to effectively recite the usual refrain that the CHP supports terrorism.

But just as important will be the CHP’s vision for Türkiye in the New Cold War where it has become a crucial third country to bypass sanctions, and its geographical position guarding entrance to the Black Sea makes cooperative ties coveted by both sides. Erdogan is a master at playing both, gaining concessions from both the West and Russia, and hyping his version of Turkish nationalism while the more secular and bourgeoisie CHP can’t seem to help itself from looking longingly to the West.

In last year’s election, the opposition alliance included in its platform items that were clearly designed to move Türkiye into the Western camp. The bloc’s “memorandum of understanding on common policies” stated it would “reduce the risk of dependence on certain countries/companies in natural gas imports,” which sounds eerily similar to the EU’s ill-fated plan with Russia. Türkiye receives nearly half of its natural gas from Russia and a quarter of its oil.

The opposition alliance also pledges to “take initiatives” in order to make it possible for Türkiye to be reaccepted to the F-35 fighter jet program. The memorandum does not expand on this, nor does it mention why the US expelled Türkiye from the program in the first place. The reason was that after years of ignored requests for the US Patriot system with technology transfer, Türkiye purchased the superior S-400 Russian system in 2017. Lastly, the Nation Alliance vowed to review the contract for the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, which Russia financed and built, helping Turkiye join the club of countries with nuclear energy.

To his credit, Imamoglu avoided wading into these New Cold War issues in the Istanbul election, but they will be waiting in any national contest and could prove problematic.

Two years ago, Imamoglu faced criticism for dining with former British Ambassador Dominic Chilcott while the city struggled with widespread disruption from a heavy snowstorm, which is reminiscent of Kılıçdaroğlu meeting with US Ambassador to Turkiye Jeff Flake ahead of last year’s election, a move that was hammered by Erdogan.

And İmamoğlu has said that the EU is a part of Türkiye and Türkiye is a part of the EU during a meeting with the ambassadors of 27 countries from the bloc. Meanwhile, recent polling in Türkiye show that 75 percent think the EU is biased against Türkiye.

Nonetheless, Western think tanks are already licking their chops over ways to capitalize off of Erdogan’s setback. Here’s Carnegie Europe:

What remains uncertain is whether Türkiye’s policies will shift on two issues of critical importance. The first is the presence of Russian-made S-400 missile systems in Türkiye’s inventory—a disturbing choice for a NATO country.

I’m not sure that was on the ballot. Likewise, there has been a lot of celebration that Turks voted “in favour of an ethnically, culturally and ideologically inclusive national alliance for democracy and change,” but it’s more likely they voted (or chose not to vote) based on their pocketbooks.

What’s Erdogan do from here? He pledged to continue with an economic plan implemented last year to tackle Türkiye’s inflation. Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University in Istanbul, told Arab News:

“I don’t expect [Erdogan] to go for early elections, even if the opposition asks him to do so. He may try to stabilize Turkiye’s economy, but given how much the current economic policies have minimized the AKP’s base in this election, it is difficult to really see how much longer such policies can continue. And even if the economy is managed, the Turkish economy will not necessarily see the phenomenal growth rates we saw in the 2000s.”

And that’s a problem for Erdogan and the AKP as it could be a long climb for them to restore trust in their management of the economy:



https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04 ... -next.html