Brazil

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Re: Brazil

Post by blindpig » Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:01 pm

PRESIDENCY OF BRAZIL WILL BE DEFINED IN THE SECOND ROUND: NUMBERS AND RESULTS
3 Oct 2022 , 2:27 pm .

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Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the general elections that took place this Sunday, October 2 in Brazil, but the numbers did not give him enough to win in the first round. In total, he got 48.43% of the votes and will face the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, on October 30, who registered 43.2% of the votes, much more than the polls predicted.

The votes of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), led by Simone Tebet, who came in third position (4.16%), and of Lula's former minister, Ciro Gomes (3.04%), fourth place, will be decisive in defining who He will be the next president of Brazil. It is expected to be a close ending.

Beyond Lula's victory in the first round, it was shown that Bolsonarism will be very much alive in Congress and the Senate and will be strongly opposed if the Workers' Party (PT) wins on October 30.

Other results:

*513 deputies were also elected, a third of the senators, governors and hundreds of state and Federal District deputies.
In the three most populous states, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, candidates for governor allied with Bolsonaro won.
*President Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) won the largest bench in Congress, according to an estimate based on figures from the Superior Electoral Court.
*Jair Bolsonaro's PL won at least 23 deputies in the elections this Sunday, reaching 99 and becoming the largest bench that has been elected in the Chamber in the last 24 years. In 2018, the PL had obtained 33 federal deputies, that is, less than half of the current bench.
The PT also increased its bench, from 56 to 76.
*Bolsonaro won nine governorships and Lula won six in the first round. There are still 12 states to define their rulers in the second round.
*In this first round, three PT candidates emerged as winners: Fátima Bezerra in Rio Grande do Norte, Elmano de Freitas in Ceará and Rafael Fonteles in Piauí. In addition, three others from parties allied to Lula were also victorious: Clécio Nunes (SD) in Amapá, Carlos Brandão (PSB) in Maranhão and Helder Barbalho (MDB) in Pará.
*The nine governors elected by Bolsonarism are: Ratinho (PSD) in Paraná, Mauro Mendes (Union) who was re-elected with a wide lead in Mato Grosso, Gladson Cameli (PP) who also managed to be re-elected in Acre, Ibaneis Rocha (MDB) in the Federal District, Ronaldo Caiado (UB) in Goiás, Romeu Zema (Novo) in Minas Gerais and Antonio Denarium (PP) re-elected in Roraima. Bolsonaro also has elected allies in Rio de Janeiro, with Cláudio Castro (PL), and Tocantins, with Wanderley Barbosa (Republicans).

https://misionverdad.com/presidencia-de ... resultados

TURN IN THE PT AND RISE OF BOLSONARISM: ON THE ELECTIONS IN BRAZIL
3 Oct 2022 , 7:50 p.m.

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The Liberal Party won the majority in Congress and remained close to Lula's votes in the first Brazilian electoral round (Photo: AFP)

Contrary to what the main polls in Brazil predicted, the general elections gave results that call into question the way politics is done from the left in the vast South American country. Lula da Silva and the Workers' Party (PT) could not achieve the long-awaited presidential victory in the first round (with 48.4% of the votes), which translates into an upcoming electoral battle that will take place on October 30 by the presidency and key positions throughout the country.

For his part, Jair Bolsonaro and the Liberal Party (PL) achieved 43.2% of the votes in the presidential election, a distance of just five points from Lula. The PL showed its strength in the suffrage to Congress, reaching the largest benches with 14 of 81 seats in the Senate, and in the Chamber of Deputies, with 99 of 513. A hypothetical future Lula government could be in difficulties with the majority of conservative-leaning parliamentary representation. Not surprisingly, Bolsonaro said that "this was our highest priority at this first moment."

In such a way that the strategy from Bolsonarism seemed to be tied to the legislative forces (in a country marked by lawfare in the last decade) in the first place, to achieve the highest concentration of votes in the presidential round facing a second and definitive round and dominate the political scene with a conservative narrative that represents a good part of the social desires in Brazil.

Looking at the map of the results, it is clear that the current president dominates what in sociology is called the "deep Brazil" of the center-south, a macro-region that now seems to be the antagonist of the immense northeast, dominated in the voting by Lula and the pt. In other words, there is no homologation in the political identity of the Brazilian "interior", historically despised from the big cities, as has happened in other electoral contests.

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Electoral map of the Brazilian elections: in red, in favor of Lula; in blue, in favor of Bolsonaro (Photo: File)

This does not mean that Lula is not the favorite to win the second, rather it shows that polarization has grown over the years and that the PT's political and electoral strategies have not given the expected results. The type of campaign carried out by the Lulista left is revealed, a reflection of what the party is today in its organic composition and program.

MINIMUM PT EXAM

Whether from the communicational or strategic point of view or merely in the proposal, the errors of political identification with the electorate from the PT took their toll in the first round and in the legislative and gubernatorial elections. As a clear example, the profusion of artists as the axis of the electoral campaign above the expectations and representations of the working people and the common people is a thermometer of the political development of Lullism, a distinction that took its toll on him, like da Silva himself. He admits it: "I will visit more regions. And my advice is: from tomorrow there will be less conversation between us and more conversation with the voters."


Rather, Lula's campaign lacked emotional fiber and was, according to sociologist Rudá Ricci, " extremely rational and professional ." In that sense, it replicated much of what had been practiced in the 2018 elections with Fernando Haddad in contention, who was advanced by seven points in this election for governor of São Paulo by the PL candidate, Tarcísio Gomes Freitas, in a state characterized by being the richest in the country.

The repetition of political personalities who do not unite the vote of the impoverished majorities in Brazil, such as Haddad, was a miscalculation that the PT made and with which they will have to insist for the second round in those regions where they still have a chance of winning. win the match against Bolsonarism.

But, in addition, there is the fundamental fact that popular organizations, social movements, NGOs and leftist networks, related to Lula and progressive representatives, lost their power of formulation and traditional mobilization in other decades. Leftist parties and organizations have progressively lost their channels of communication with their social base. This is reflected in what has been said about the campaign, which shows an existential break in the PT.

AND OF BOLSONARISMO

Suddenly, the political movement led by Bolsonaro was ratified in a trail of votes and political representations in different instances of power. An extreme right that has the still current president as its leader, but that was already consolidating beyond him, at least in social practices such as evangelism, which has been on the rise for decades in Brazil, and a certain conservative political culture.

Due to the cooling of relations between leftist parties and the struggle for fundamental rights in the South American country, individual success and the protection of certain communities and social identities in the political spectrum take precedence: that is where Bolsonarism intends to make a dent, be it to nuclear towards itself said wills or to implode them with partisan objectives.

A key factor in supporting the PL has been the reported economic growth , despite widespread hunger, in this year 2022, after a disastrous management of the covid pandemic by the current administration. Inflation has decreased compared to the last two years, as well as unemployment. Brazil remains the largest producer of meat in the world and the fourth largest producer of cereals.

The international vertex has also favored the current group of Brazil under the presidency of Bolsonaro in recent times. His position in the face of tectonic changes in the geopolitical order has been favorable to the multipolarism promoted by the BRICS and other entities led by China and Russia, in clear antagonism with the imperial decline of US unipolarity.

In any case, the PL works on the basis of the strong conservative movement that exists in Brazil and shows that it has greater power of mobilization and political projection than years ago, when Bolsonaro took the reins of the Planalto Palace.

In addition, it promotes the political scene as a gladiatorial arena in which the re-election candidate faces Lula personally, and that is a gain for a right that does not want to see a return of the PT to power crystallized, seeking the demobilization of its programmatic bases and giving flight to its own political tendency. Not surprisingly, Bolsonaro transferred the vote of his former Social Liberal Party to the PL under this strategy. It is a political culture on the rise, and we are still trying to understand the implications of this for the future.

Lula is likely to receive the support of the third-place finisher in the first round of elections, Simone Tebet, who received 4% of the vote, and to take the majority of the vote from Ciro Gomes, who received 3%. Lula will have no choice but to approach the center now to form greater alliances and give a quick turn to political identity if he does not want to suffer a setback that would be difficult for the left and progressives to assimilate not only in Brazil, but also in the region. South American

For this, it is necessary to deepen the social analysis of Brazilian politics and return to a national class position that is far removed from the latest progressive tendencies promoted by the American democratic establishment and the European community. We have already seen the throes of it in Chile and Argentina.

https://misionverdad.com/globalistan/gi ... -en-brasil

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Re: Brazil

Post by blindpig » Fri Oct 07, 2022 2:25 pm

Electoral campaigns restart in Brazilian media

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Lula da Silva will be the first to place his electoral message on Radio and TV programming and then they will alternate. | Photo: Europe Press
Published October 7, 2022 (2 hours 32 minutes ago)

Both candidates will have 10 minutes a day on radio and television to promote their electoral propaganda until October 28.

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) of Brazil reported this Friday on the start of the electoral campaign on radio and television towards the ballot on October 30 between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro.

According to the TSE website, this period of propaganda freedom will last until October 28, prior to the day of the second round of elections, with equal time on the air for both candidates.

In accordance with the provisions, the television messages for the President of the Republic will be broadcast from Monday to Saturday from 1:00 p.m. to 1:10 p.m. and from 8:30 p.m. daily insert.


With the same duration time, the radio will broadcast from 7:00 to 7:10 and from 12:00 to 12:10, local time.

The candidate for president who obtained the highest initial vote, explains the TSE, will be the first to post his content, and from then on he alternates with his rival.


The analysis of the situation in the first round, according to the TSE, revealed 4,872 complaints of irregular propaganda circulated through an application called Pardal.

But a report that contemplates the incidents since the opening of the campaign on August 16, indicates that a total of 37,026 complaints were registered.

In the first round of the elections, Lula da Silva led the polls with 48 percent of the popular preference, while his rival for the ballot, Jair Bolsonaro, surprised many with 43 percent.

https://www.telesurtv.net/news/reinicia ... -0008.html

Brazilian students announce actions against educational cuts

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The organizers of the protests indicated that plenary sessions and demonstrations would be scheduled at universities and federal institutes in Brazil. | Photo: @uneoficial
Published October 6, 2022 (9 hours 36 minutes ago)

Student organizations accuse President Bolsonaro of taking funds earmarked for the education sector to finance his election campaign.

Brazilian students, coordinated by their main organizations, were called to protest on October 10 and 18 against the educational cuts announced by the government headed by President Jair Bolsonaro.

The National Union of Students (UNE), the Brazilian Union of Secondary Students (UBES) and the National Association of Graduate Students (ANPG) are the main promoters of the initiative.

In addition to the aforementioned national events, other plenary sessions and demonstrations at universities and federal institutes would be scheduled.


"We are going to organize the largest movement in the universities and in the streets and at the polls. On the 30th we will put Bolsonaro in the trash of history," said the president of the UNE, Bruna Brelaz.

Likewise, he accused Bolsonaro of taking money from education to budget for his "failed campaign", referring to the defeat of Bolsonaroism in the first round of the elections.

In fact, already in Salvador de Bahia, teachers from the Federal University of Bahia (UFBA) staged a protest in the Canela neighborhood, in front of the rectory, according to local media reports.

Now, a new blockade established this October 5th would take close to 1,000 million reais (191 million dollars approximately) from higher education and affects it so much that public universities risk not having enough money to pay their employees and other expenses.

With the measures against education, including the temporary blocking of funds, education has already lost about 2.4 billion reais (approximately 460 million dollars).

The cut against the educational budget had been announced last Friday, two days before the first electoral round

The text published by the National Association of Directors of Federal Institutions of Higher Education (Andifes) detailed that the total funds cut for university expenses would be 328 million reais (more than 62 million dollars).

https://www.telesurtv.net/news/estudian ... -0033.html

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Thousands came out to Avenida Paulista in downtown S. Paulo on Saturday night to celebrate Lula’s record performance in the first round 2022 Brazilian presidential election.

Media spin Lula victory as defeat
Originally published: Brasil Wire on October 4, 2022 by Brian Mier (more by Brasil Wire) | (Posted Oct 06, 2022)

From the way that the Anglo media is treating Brazil’s treating the October 2, 1st round presidential elections a casual news consumer may get the impression that the Brazilian Workers Party suffered a crushing defeat. It takes an incredible amount of spin to create this impression. In order to pull this off, several important facts have to be downplayed or ignored. I’ll go over a few of them here.

Workers Party Candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva beat incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by 6.2 million votes. This represents the first time since the return to democracy in 1985 that a challenger has ever beaten an incumbent in a Brazilian first round presidential election, and no incumbent has ever lost reelection. There are reasons for this. The incumbent has the entire weight of the state behind them. This enables them to, for example, issue an executive order to bypass constitutionally mandated spending caps during election season to artificially lower the prices of food, cooking gas and gasoline and dish out billions of reais in pork to fickle center-right allies in Congress, as Bolsonaro did this year. Brazil has 2/3 the population of the U.S., so Lula’s win on Saturday would be the equivalent of a victory by over 9 million votes in a U.S. presidential election—something which has not happened since 2008.

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Célia Xakriabá (PSOL) has become the first indigenous federal lawmaker from Minas Gerais

This historic victory, which beat his previous best first round performance by 10 million votes, is even more astounding when the fact that Lula suffered character assassination in the national and international media on a near daily basis for 9 years is taken into consideration. The media treated him as guilty before proven innocent, consistently repeating outlandish accusations made by the corrupt prosecution team, as it worked closely with the U.S. DOJ and FBI, while completely ignoring the defense lawyers. An example of this is 2 articles that the Guardian ran during the lead up to Lula’s arrest which falsely accused him of being involved in an “R$88 million Petrobras corruption scheme”—a charge that was dropped one week after it was used to justify the illegal forum shopping into a friendly court run by US asset Sergio Moro. Even left press outlets like Jacobin spent years spuriously criticizing Lula and the PT during the parliamentary/judicial coup against Dilma Rousseff and the lead up to Lula’s imprisonment. The fact that he spent 580 days as a political prisoner specifically to remove him from the 2018 presidential elections (as demonstrated in the Vaza Jato leaks revealed by Walter Delgatti and published in Intercept) and, after proving his innocence, managed to become the first challenger in modern Brazilian history to beat an incumbent in the first round, should be treated as one of the greatest political comebacks of the last Century.

The Workers Party increased its number of representatives in national Congress by 21%, from 56 to 68. This marks a comeback after a long, demoralizing period from the beginning of the illegitimate Michel Temer government through the last 4 years of the Bolsonaro administration, returning the PT’s representation in Congress to where it was during the Dilma Rousseff presidency. Furthermore, it’s two inner circle federation allies (PC do B and PV) picked up an additional 12 seats, raising the number of lawmakers expected to vote in block on every bill to 80. To this, you can add the 12 MoC’s elected by PT’s traditional congressional ally the PSOL, which increased it’s number of lawmakers by 20%, thanks to a stunning performance by housing movement leader Guilherme Boulos, who received over 1 million votes in S. Paulo’s state-wide elections, making him the most highly voted candidate in a very conservative state. PSOL also registered 2 historic firsts, as two of its candidates, Célia Xakriabá and Sônia Guajajara, became the first indigenous people elected to federal congress from the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo.

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The MST’s 6 new federal and state lawmakers

São Paulo state is home to around 20% of Brazil’s population and has the second largest government in Brazil after the federal government. PT’s representation in SP State Congress increased by a whopping 80%, thanks to a stellar performance by 80 year old Eduardo Suplicy—one of the original founders of the party—who had over 3 times more votes than any other candidate. In a conservative state where Bolsonaro beat Lula by around 7%, the PT will become the second largest party in the legislature.

Across the country a new generation of young, left wing labor union and social movement activists were either elected to public office for the first time or propelled to higher office. For decades the largest poor/working class social movement in the Western Hemisphere, the socialist Landless Rural Workers Movement (Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra/MST), stayed out of electoral politics. There had been a few attempts to elect one or another candidate from the movement, but as the members nearly all live in agrarian reform settlements in rural areas it was hard to get out the votes needed to elect anyone. This year all of that changed as the movement fielded 15 candidates and elected 2 national members of Congress and 4 state legislators. Due to structural changes in the higher education system pushed through during the Lula and Rousseff years which resulted in hundreds of thousands of MST activists entrance into the free public university system, the movement was able to join with other social movements like the Levante Popular da Juventude (Peoples Youth Uprising) and mobilize thousand of university students to canvas for MST candidates in cities across the country.

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27 year old Workers Party member Thainara Faria hugs her mom after being elected into S. Paulo state Congress

All prominent city councilors who I reported on for TeleSur and Brasilwire as they received repeated death threats from Brazilian neonazi groups were elected to higher office. Carol Dartora has become the first Afro-Brazilian woman elected to federal Congress in Parana state history. Fellow Afro-Brazilian Curitiba city councilor Renato Freitas, who suffered a spurious, racially motivated impeachment process that was reversed by the Supreme Court, was elected to Parana’s state Congress. 27 year old Afro-Brazilian city councilor from Araraquara, S. Paulo, Thainara Faria—also a victim of constant death threats from bolsonarista white supremacists—has moved into the São Paulo state legislature. Young, Afro-Brazilian communist city councilor Bruna Rodrigues, whose mother is a city street sweeper, moved up into Rio Grande do Sul’s State Congress. Workers Party city councilor Leonel Radde, also from Porto Alegre, who, as the most prominent Nazi hunter in Brazilian politics receives death threats nearly every week, has also moved into Rio Grande do Sul’s state legislature.

In short, there is plenty to celebrate. Even in the Senate, where the Brazilian left has been traditionally weak, the PT has moved its representation up from 6-9 since Bolsonaro took office in 2019, including two candidates who were elected this Saturday.

There is certainly a lot to complain about. Many of the most ridiculous bolsonarista clown candidates including former cabinet ministers like Damares Alves, who claims Jesus gave her a masters degree, were elected to Senate. Worst of all, crooked former Lava Jato judge/Bolsonaro justice minister Sergio Moro will now be protected by parliamentary immunity from all of the different criminal charges he is facing for the next 8 years, due to his upset Senate victory in Parana. Lula’s historic performance placed him within the spread of nearly all polls, but Bolsonaro beat the spread by around 5 points. It is a ridiculous stretch of the imagination bordering on bad faith, however, to treat this scenario as a defeat for the victorious candidate and his party.

https://mronline.org/2022/10/06/media-s ... as-defeat/

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Brazil’s PDT Party Backs Lula for 2nd Round of Elections

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Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) receives the support of center-left Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party) ahead of the runoff election in Brazil. Oct. 4, 2022. | Photo: Twitter/@interpravdaES

Published 4 October 2022

Brazilian politician, Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party, expressed his support for former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

The second round of elections in the South American country is scheduled for October 30, when leftist Lula will face right-wing Jair Bolsonaro. Neither of the two reached 50 percent of the valid votes plus one in last Sunday's first round.

With 3.5 million votes (3 percent of votes counted), center-left Ciro Gomes came in fourth place, behind center-right Senator Simone Tebet, who obtained 4.9 million votes (4 percent) in the first round of the Brazilian elections.

In a video released on Gomes' social networks, he said, "I follow the decision of my party, the Democratic Labor Party; given the circumstances, it is the only way out."

The politician also said that he does not want and will not accept any position in a possible future government, noting he was never and never will be absent from the fight for Brazil.

Ciro Gomez is from the center-left; he came in 4th place in the Brazilian elections, with 3.6 million votes. Declared his support in the second round for Lula. The center-left does not support or join the extreme right, as the "center-left" did in Chile during the referendum.

A part of Gomez's party and his electorate was not pleased as the politician's campaign focused on criticism of both Workers' Party (PT) leader Lula and Liberal Party (PL) leader Bolsonaro: rivals in the October 30 runoff.

This Tuesday, the country's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) officially confirmed Lula's victory on Sunday, reaching 48.43 percent of the valid votes. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, gained 43.20 percent.

According to Correio Braziliense, the former president's immediate task is to gather as much support as possible from the other alliances and their parties.


Senator Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement said she had already made a decision, noting that a decision by the alliance parties was pending. "I will make a pronouncement at the time. It must be understood that this is not just any moment in Brazil," Tebet said.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Bra ... -0011.html

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Brazil’s Communist Leader says ‘Occupy the Streets’ to Guarantee Lula Second-Round Victory
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on OCTOBER 3, 2022
Ben Chaco

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A supporter of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva celebrates as she listens to the partial results after general election polls closed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. | Silvia Izquierdo / AP

Brazil’s Communist Party leader Luciana Santos called on the left to “occupy the streets” to guarantee a Lula victory in the second round of presidential elections in four weeks.

Former President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva came first in Sunday’s election more than six million votes ahead of incumbent Jair Bolsonaro but fell shy of the 50% needed to claim victory in round one.

“Brazil has shown that it wants to be happy again. Lula is the winner of the first round and we will also win in the second round,” Santos said. The Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) and the Greens both joined forces with Lula’s Workers Party to back him for president.

“The people showed at the polls that they no longer want hatred, division, violence, hunger, and authoritarianism. Today, we’re going to celebrate this triumph, we’re going to celebrate democracy and, starting on Tuesday, we’ll be in the field campaigning.

“Occupy the streets, talk to every person we can, raise popular awareness—ensure even more support for Lula,” she urged.

Regional left leaders congratulated Lula on his first-place showing, with congratulations coming from Bolivia’s Luis Arce, Argentina’s Alberto Fernández, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Lula thanked his supporters and vowed to continue campaigning until victory.

Bolsonaro did not challenge the result Trump-style as many had feared, probably because he is still in the race, and acknowledged it showed a “desire for change” while cautioning that “certain changes can be for the worse.” But he left the door open to objecting by saying he was awaiting Defense Ministry reports on the fairness of the vote.

His strong second place was ahead of poll predictions, while right-wing parties also did well in elections to the Chamber of Deputies, likely having a majority over the left there.

The first round saw Lula win 57,257,453 votes (48%) to Bolsonaro’s 51,071,106 (43%) with 99.9% of votes counted.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2022/10/ ... d-victory/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Brazil

Post by blindpig » Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:35 pm

Brazilian Presidential Campaign on TV and Radio Resumes

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The sign reads, "Lula's proposal: a strong minimum wage." | Photo: Twitter/ @jandira_feghali

Published 7 October 2022 (17 hours 33 minutes ago)

"The time to recover hope, democracy, and peace has arrived," Lula da Silva stressed, recalling that Jair Bolsonaro "means a disaster in the economy."


On Friday, the Superior Electoral Tribunal authorized the resumption of the political campaign by radio and television from Oct. 7 to Oct. 28

During this period, presidential candidates Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro will be free to put forward their proposals before the second round to be held on Oct. 30. Brazilian laws guarantee both candidates equal times for the transmission of their political messages.

At a free television presentation, the Workers' Party candidate Lula da Silva appeared in the living room of a house claiming that 60 percent of Brazilians "no longer" accept the far-right president Jair Bolsonaro.

"The time to recover hope, democracy, and peace has arrived," Lula stressed, affirming without losing his smile that Bolsonaro "means a disaster in the economy."


The tweet reads, "Lula won the first round with over 57 million votes. Now, with the support of the entire country, we are even stronger. Watch the second round's first TV program and let's go ahead with Brazil of Hope!"

The Workers' Party leader proposed "gathering" the best of Brazil and cited the support received from other political figures, who have joined the "Campaign in Defense of Democracy," despite the fact that they were rivals of Lula in the past.

Among those supports, Lula mentioned Simone Tebet, a senator who aspired to the presidency for a center-right coalition, which did not make it to the second round because she obtained only 4 percent of the valid votes.

In contrast to the joy emanating from Lula's advertisements, Bolsonaro took advantage of his five minutes to exalt the national flag, repeat his traditional odes to "patriotism," and claim the role of country's savior.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Bra ... -0009.html

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Guilherme Boulos: Is A Coup In Brazil A Risk Or A Smokescreen?
By BRASILWIRE May 16, 2022 By Guilherme Boulos

Bolsonaro, after a “sabbatical period” in which he stopped talking about electronic voting machines, returned to threaten the integrity of the electoral process. In the last few weeks, he attacked the Electoral Court (TSE) again, spoke again about the “secret room”, and demanded military personnel in the investigation process…

As October approaches and he remains well behind Lula in the polls, Bolsonaro switches to desperation mode. He attacks institutions and threatens a coup.

Visibly, he uses the coup rhetoric as a smokescreen, a distraction maneuver to avoid discussing the issues that really matter to the majority of the Brazilian people: inflation, unemployment, falling incomes. But it’s not just that.

It cannot be ignored that, if Bolsonaro could, if it were only in his hands, he would have already carried out an auto-coup. Just look at the 7th of September of last year. Bolsonarism has an authoritarian DNA, heir to Silvio Frota and the military of the so-called hard line.

But the Brazil of today is not the same as it was in 1964. Neither is the international scenario. Today, a coup would have hardly any external support. More likely, it would generate a series of sanctions and the isolation of Brazil. Very different from 64, where the United States supported the coup from start to finish.

Today it is very unlikely to imagine a situation in which the command of the active Armed Forces would embark on a coup adventure for Bolsonarismo. It hasn’t got onboard until now, despite attempts.

That there is now apparently no risk of a traditional coup, with tanks on the streets, it does not mean that Bolsonaro will not act, as he is already acting, to disrupt the electoral process, and create a coup environment.

He will do his best to mobilize his political militias and his followers in the military police. This is not enough to carry out a coup and turn the tables, but it is capable of creating turmoil in the country, as Donald Trump did with the Capitol Hill episode.

In summary: It is very unlikely that we will have a traditional military coup. But it is also very unlikely that we can imagine Bolsonaro losing the elections and accepting defeat. You will have to defeat him at the polls and on the streets.

We are not in a normal electoral process. Our role will not only be on October 2nd. This election will require engagement and mobilization from all of us. We have 5 months to dispute the conscience of society, elect Lula and defeat the Bolsonarista threat. Rise above them.

https://www.brasilwire.com/guilherme-bo ... okescreen/

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Elections in Brazil: Second Round Slated for October 30 Between Lula and Bolsonaro
By EmiciThug, Contributor October 7, 2022

The dissatisfaction of Brazilians across the country was reinforced as the populace voted against the current President Jair Messias Bolsonaro (PL – Liberal Party) last week. However, the results were so close between Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT – Workers’ Party) that the presidential candidates must wait until the second round of voting, on October 30, to find out the winner. Notably, turnout reached its lowest level since 1998.

Bolsonaro finished the first stage with just over 43% of the votes. His opponent, former leftist President Lula da Silva, obtained little more than 48% of the votes, thus falling two percent short of an outright victory in the first round.

Breaking Down the Votes

In the first round of voting on October 2, 2022, former President Lula won in the Brazilian states of Alagoas, Amapá, Amazonas, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Minas Gerais, Paraíba, Pará, Pernambuco, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Sergipe and Tocantins. Bolsonaro won in Acre, Distrito Federal, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Rondônia, Roraima, Santa Catarina, and São Paulo. Lula also carried Rio de Janeiro, a stronghold of militias tied to Bolsonaro and polling place of the current president.

When it comes to voting abroad, Brazilians residing outside the country in these elections were able to choose who they would like to see as Brazil’s Chief Executive. The counting of votes abroad brought victory to former president Lula with 47% of the votes, against 41% for the current far-right government.

Lula won the majority of votes cast by Brazilians living in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Australia, Belgium, China, South Korea, Denmark, Netherlands, Hungary, Jordan, Lebanon, Malaysia, New Zealand, Norway, Palestine, Poland, Kenya, Czech Republic, Sweden and Thailand. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro won most of the ballots cast by Brazilians who currently reside in the United Arab Emirates, Greece, Indonesia, Mozambique and the Dominican Republic.

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Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and presidential candidate, former president Lula da Silva – image concocted by EmiciThug

The Next Two Candidates

During the electoral campaign, pressure was put on presidential candidate Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party) to give up his campaign and support Lula. Despite the various campaigns and demonstrations carried out by artists, politicians, journalists, and political scientists, among others, Gomes was not swayed and he stayed in the race.

At the end of the first round, Gomes was in fourth place with just over 3% of the votes, behind Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement), who won just over 4% of the electorate. Gomes defends ideas similar to those of former president Lula, while candidate Simone Tebet is an advocate for women’s rights.

Fake News
Not even the mechanisms created by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to prevent the spread of fake news managed to stop Bolsonarist groups from making use of the practice. Distorted information, some generated by Israeli company CySource, was constantly circulated in Brazil and in places outside the country where there were polling locations.

One case that drew a lot of attention was that of a fake news campaign which spread social media the day before the vote, falsely claiming that candidate Lula was tied to a Brazilian criminal organization.

The minister and president of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) Alexandre de Moraes, as soon as he became aware of the news, determined the immediate removal of the false content under penalty of R$100,000 for non-compliance with the order.

However, it is understood that the last minute post was strategic and the story circulated for a long time, allowing access to the most unsuspecting and thus likely changing the outcome of the election.

Electoral Violence

These elections have been tense because they put the extreme right, represented by Bolsonaro, and the left, represented by Lula, face to face. However, unlike the 2018 elections in which Bolsonaro emerged victorious, the situation now includes a strong will for change on the part of poverty-stricken Brazilians who’ve lived through one of the most deadliest countries during the pandemic, suffering due to the coronavirus, gun violence, police brutality and femicide.

Another point that weighs in favor of Lula, the PT candidate, is that in no candidate has ever managed to reverse the voting results in a runoff election.

In light of this, the tendency is for new cases of psychological intimidation, physical violence and even murders to occur in the country. One week before the vote, a Bolsonarista stabbed a Lula voter to death after entering the bar and asking who would vote for the candidate of PT.

This followed one of the most infamous cases of recent political violence, when municipal guard Marcelo Arruda was murdered by criminal police officer Jorge Guaranho on July 9, the night he celebrated his 50th birthday with a PT-themed party.

Undoubtedly, this election is one of the most tense in the political history of Brazil and many continue to fear that Bolsonaro will force a military coup in the country if he does not succeed in the elections.

Brazil suffered a military coup supported by the United States in 1964; its grip on power persisted until the return of democracy in 1985. An audio clip of former president Lyndon Johnson declaring “I think we ought to take every step that we can, be prepared to do everything that we need to do” is available (MP3).

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A tank and other Brazilian Army vehicles further the 1964 coup near the National Congress of Brazil. Source: Arquivo Público do Distrito Federal (Public Archive of the Federal District) via Wikimedia Commons

Abstention

These elections brought an alarming fact that portrays the lack of interest and/or perhaps the lack of information about the importance of the election for the country’s destiny for a portion of the Brazilian people.

Nearly 20% of those eligible to vote did not turn up at the polls. In numbers, this is equivalent to 32 million voters, the highest non-voting percentage since 1998.

Frustration

The results of the polls frustrated the expectations of the PT and its most optimistic supporters for a victory in the first round.

Brazil’s right wing, via their figurehead Bolsonaro, spent this entire electoral period doubting the polls and attacking the press and the electoral system, insinuating that elections could be manipulated by the TSE. (Reuters reported CIA Director William Burns directly warned Bolsonaro’s officials they “should stop casting doubt on his country’s voting system.”)

In addition to the presidential race in Brazil, there are also elections for state governors, state deputies, federal deputies and the senate.

As the working class strive for what say will be a better, fairer, more egalitarian country with Lula again serving as president, they will have to anxiously wait another few weeks while politicians ramp up their rhetoric.

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Brazilians in line to vote on October 2, 2022 in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil

Cover image contributed by EmiciThug and features a march on August 8, 2022, “Students Day.”

https://unicornriot.ninja/2022/election ... bolsonaro/

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Brazil’s Bolsonaro blocks another $192 billion from education
All in all, the government has already blocked USD$459 million of the 2022 higher education budget

October 07, 2022 by Brasil de Fato

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With the new block, the education budget blocks reach R$2.4 billion (around USD$459 million) in 2022 - Helena Dias/Brasil de Fato PE

The federal government of Brazil announced a new budget cut of over USD $192 billion (R$ 1 billion) in funding for higher education in the country. With this, public universities are again at risk of lacking the funds to pay employees and operating costs.

The contingency (temporary blocking of funds until the government decides whether or not the cut will be final) was announced on September 30, on the eve of the first round of presidential elections, through Decree No. 11,216, which amends Decree No. 10,961, on the execution of the budget of the Ministry of Education (MEC) for this year. Added to the USD$ 257 million in cuts announced between July and August, the contingency in education reaches USD$ 459 million.

In a statement, the National Association of Directors of Federal Institutions of Higher Education (Andifes) points out that the cuts resulted in a USD$ 63 million cut in the amounts available for university expenses.

“This value, if added to the amount that had already been blocked throughout the year, makes a total of R$ 763 million (USD$ 146 million) in amounts withdrawn from federal universities out of the budget that had been approved for this year,” says the organization. For Andifes, this new cut “puts the entire system of universities at risk,” which has already been affected by contingencies made throughout the year.

In a meeting with the Secretary of Higher Education, Wagner Vilas Boas de Souza, Andifes argues that the fact that the contingency affects resources destined for expenses in October, which are already committed, may lead to “very serious consequences and legal developments for federal universities.”

For Andifes, “this limitation established by the Decree, which practically exhausts the possibilities of payments from now on, is unsustainable.” The organization convened a special meeting of its board on October 6 to discuss the context and debate actions and procedures.

Repercussions
On social media, the National Union of Students (UNE) claimed that the “Federal government confiscates the balance of all accounts of the federal institutes and universities, this Wednesday, 05/10/22, and leaves not a cent to pay anything!”

After the post, the hashtag #ConfiscoNaEducação (#EducationConfiscation) appeared among the most popular terms on Twitter.

According to an analysis by the Center for Studies I Am Science released in early September, the Bolsonaro government has recorded a 94% reduction in the investments allocated to federal universities over the last four years. Of the 21 research institutes in the country, 19 have seen their budgets fall between 2019 and 2021.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2022/10/07/ ... education/

After all, ya don't need a university education to herd cattle and cut down trees.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Brazil

Post by blindpig » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:41 pm

Lula Vote Was Hit By Unexpected Abstentions. Are Bannon Tactics In Play?
By BRASILWIRE October 8, 2022

A surge in abstentions has prompted the Brazilian Electoral Court to act on long voting lines that blighted the first round of the presidential election. Although he won comfortably, voting data suggests Lula vote was most hit by the unexpected no shows, which also skewed polling accuracy.

At the October 2 first round of the presidential election, Lula da Silva picked up 26 million more votes than the Workers Party candidate Fernando Haddad did in the 2018 first round, and bettered his 2006 highest tally by 10 million votes, near equaling the % vote share. The former president fell just 1.57% of taking the presidency, in an agonising night for supporters.

Abstentions were the highest since 1998. That was last time a presidential candidate won outright in the first round.

Lack of understanding of the runoff system, and media coverage of Bolsonaro’s higher than expected percentage of the valid vote count, added to an impression that frontrunner Lula had performed more poorly than expected, or even lost the first round.

With the powerful General Braga Netto having replaced General Mourão as his vice candidate, Bolsonaro’s military-dominated government has famously made repeated public attacks on the democratic system. Among these were a demand to independently audit the vote, for there to be a printed record of all votes, and explicit threats that the far-right president would not recognize the election result should he lose.

Debate over the security of Brazil’s electoral system has focused on the electronic voting machines. In its defense of the system, Brazil’s progressive forces may have fallen into a trap in discounting possible malfeasance using age-old, unsophisticated–but no less effective–methods.

This has prompted democratic forces to double down in their defense of the electoral system, and in particular the voting machines, despite the military contracting a Mossad-linked Israeli firm to investigate vulnerabilities, under a premise of “safeguarding” the election.

But warnings prior to election day and on the ground during the vote show that other strategies may have been at play. New research by polling agency Quaest shows that asymmetrical abstentions harmed Lula’s vote and likely prevented a predicted first round outright victory.

Unexpected surge in abstentions

Quaest projects that of a 21% total abstentions, Bolsonaro voters accounted for 32%, while Lula voters were responsible for 45%. Without this asymmetric abstention, Lula would indeed have taken the presidency in the first round.

Researchers have sought to analyze voting data and try to ascertain what lay behind the surge in no shows, why it as asymmetric, and where it was most evident.

Abstention affecting Lula’s support base is not new. Traditionally, lower-income abstention is greater. Distance to polling stations and obligation to work on election day all affect the voter segment in which Lula is strongest. Right-wing lawmakers’ efforts to end free election day transport in cities such as Porto Alegre caused anger prior to the vote.

Regardless, some of the findings have been disturbing. In northeastern Lula stronghold of Recife, where the Workers Party candidate gained 3,558,322 votes, 65,27% of total, voters complained lines up to 4 hours cast their votes, and several polling station addresses were changed at the last minute. While many observed Brazil’s normal rapid voting process, stories of unprecedentedly long voting lines and abandoned attempts to vote, were circulating nationwide on election day, sparking early fears that something was wrong compared to previous elections.

Lines of up to 3 hours were reported around the country by Folha. In particular São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Brazil’s most populous state, São Paulo produced some surprising election results for both Governor and Senate, and Bolsonaro beat Lula by a higher margin than predicted.

A new, optional biometric registration system was initially blamed for the delays at polling stations, but Superior Electoral Court president Alexandre de Moraes denied that this was responsible. Many voters also complained that machines not functioning correctly.

Anecdotal reports talk of voters leaving for lunch and returning only to find even longer lines. Many simply went home rather than wait.

The conventional interpretation of the first round election results is that Lula got the near 50% that the polls had predicted, while Bolsonaro had an unpredicted surge, beating the projections of pollsters by around 7 points.

However, as Political Scientist Antonio Lavareda has noted, these data can be looked at a different way, with a focus on abstentions. Let’s have a look at the pre-election polls.

Image

In polls from three days before the election by IPESE–which were in line with other polls at the time– Bolsonaro was polling at 32% in spontaneous polling (where respondents had to come up with the names of the candidates) and 33%, when candidate names were offered. This is far below Bolsonaro’s total of valid votes on the October 2ndelection, in which he received 43.3%.

However, that 43% represents only what Brazilian election law calls Valid Votes, they do not factor in abstention, or null votes. If we look, instead, at the entire population that is eligible to vote in Brazil’s presidential election, the polls precisely predicted Bolsonaro’s count. 32.64% of eligible Brazilian voters selected Bolsonaro for president, exactly as the polls predicted they would.

It is in Lula’s vote total that abstentions seem to have made the difference. In the IPESPE poll, Lula was received 43% of spontaneous votes, and 46%, when people were given candidate names. However, 20.95% of eligible Brazilians did not cast a vote, and that abstention hit Lula especially hard, reducing his votes among the total number of eligible voters to 36.6%.

Whereas media coverage has talked of an upset, and Bolsonaro wave of support, This analysis of election data suggests that the incumbent was numerically where major polls had predicted. What changed however was that there was an unanticipated surge in abstentions, which disproportionately affected the vote of Lula da Silva.

This casts the long voting lines that have been reported, particularly in the Workers’ Party strongholds of Northeast Brazil and the peripheries of large metro areas in a different light.

The Mesários

Earlier in the election campaign, a push to recruit Bolsonaro-supporting volunteers to work as polling station officials, or mesários had caused alarm.

On September 25, it was reported that this had caught the eye of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court, which had found that “groups of bolsonaristas may have agreed to volunteer as poll workers”.

This election had seen a record number of volunteer registrations, going from 430 thousand in 2018 to 830 thousand, an increase of 93%. In all, 2 million people, 48% of which are volunteers.

In 121 Bolsonarista group conversations on the Telegram app that are being monitored by the University of Virginia in the United States, word “mesário” was mentioned only twice in January, In August it appeared 163 times. April and May, the month in which the voluntary registration of poll workers ended were the only previous times the word appeared in double digit numbers.

This led to fears that Steve Bannon-style tactics might come into play on election day, where the voting process is deliberately delayed, and abstentions generated through long lines. Such tactics were evident in the 2020 United States election, where Bannon had campaigned for Donald Trump supporters to register and train as voting officials to contest Biden votes. Trump refused to accept the result, like Bolsonaro has threatened to in Brazil.

Bannon casts a shadow over the imminent US midterm elections. Vanity fair writes that “Embracing the “precinct strategy” promoted by Steve Bannon, the GOP is reportedly preparing to sow chaos in the 2022 election by creating an “army” of poll workers and Republican lawyers to challenge voters in Democratic precincts.”

A year ago, Bannon “declared war” on Lula, calling him “a criminal and a communist”, and that the coming Brazilian election was the most important in South American history. He and his international far right movement see Brazil as crucial, having lost the US presidency.

On Brazil’s election day, just weeks before the US mid terms, “unprepared” mesários were amongst those blamed for delays to the voting process, causing lines, waiting times, and ultimately abstentions to multiply.

Second Round

Workers Party’s Jacques Wagner identified reducing abstentions as a key pillar of Lula’s second round strategy.

Andrei Roman, CEO of smaller polling agency AtlasIntel, which has caught the eye by predicting the first round result most accurately, says that in light of abstentions, Lula is stronger than he looks, and that it represents a reserve of potential votes for the second round on October 30.

President of the Superior Electoral Court, or TSE, Alexandre de Moraes responded to the problems faced in the first round, and identified that some areas suffered more than others: “The TSE is already planning and taking all the necessary measures so that the queues that occurred in some polling stations do not happen again in the next round. This will be done so that the voter has a more comfortable vote”, Moraes said, calling voters to participate in the second round.

Moraes said that the problems that caused the queues are being discussed with regional electoral courts.

“The turnout of all voters is very important so that we can once again demonstrate the maturity of Brazilian democracy and complete this electoral cycle of the 2022 general elections”, he concluded.

That the Superior Electoral Court now seeks to act on long lines driving abstentions in the second round confirmed it is indeed identified as a genuine problem, but both the TSE and progressive commentators are wary of saying anything that may look like it undermines the integrity of the electoral system.

In the campaign to reinforce faith in the system, and particularly the electronic ballot, Brazil may have walked into a trap where antidemocratic strategies as old as elections themselves can be deployed with impunity.

We publish this not in certainty that such tactics are responsible for the result, but in the belief that this conversation is better had now than on October 31.

https://www.brasilwire.com/lula-vote-hi ... s-in-play/

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SECRETARIA DE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS

Comitê Central
SHN, Quadra 2, Bloco F, Ed. Executive Office Tower, 12º Andar, Sala 1224 - Asa Norte - Brasília - DF.
CEP: 70.702-906 / Página na Internet: http:// www.pcdob.org.br / www.i21.org.br - Correio Eletrônico:
internacional@pcdob.org.br / relacoesinternacionaispcdob@gmail.com

Brasília, October 06, 2022

GATHER BROAD FORCES AND MOBILIZE THE PEOPLE TO ELECT LULA PRESIDENT

The National Political Commission of the PCdoB, gathered on October 4th, calls on the entire party to
join forces in the electoral battle in this second electoral turn. The candidacy of Lula and Alckmin
won the first round of elections, with more than six million votes. Despite all the abuse in the use of
the public machine, the secret budget, and the threats to democracy and institutions, the people have
massively rejected Bolsonaro's candidacy.
However, the dispute in this second round of elections should not be underestimated. We need to build
the biggest Broad Front possible. This is a truly national union against the implantation of the extreme
right in the country, which will lead us to a catastrophic scenario in every sense. What is at stake is the
dispute between two antagonistic projects. One is authoritarian, regressive, and exclusionary, led by
Bolsonaro. The other project is democratic and committed to the development and social justice, led
by Lula and Alckmin.
In the following hours, the central work is the dialogue with political forces and leaders who have
always been committed to democracy and Brazil. Political supports such as PDT and Ciro Gomes,
Simone Tebet, FHC, and Cidadania, as well as leaders from PSDB, PSD, and MDB are indispensable.
The campaign must incorporate the programmatic contributions of these leaders, reinforcing a basic
program with concrete answers to the real problems of our people.
For this reason, the PCdoB calls on its militancy and its leaders to reinforce Lula's campaign in the
states of the federation. It is crucial that we increase the local platform, intensify social mobilization,
and build broad campaign agendas.
We have three weeks of intense mobilization and talking to people. Now is the time to go to
neighborhoods, schools, universities, and workplaces to ask for votes. We have to convince new

http://solidnet.org/.galleries/document ... SIDENT.pdf

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The Amazon’s Last Chance
OCTOBER 8, 2022

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Former president of Brazil and candidate of Workers' Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks to supporters at the end of the general election day at Paulista avenue on October 2, 2022 in São Paulo, Brazil. Photo: Rodrigo Paiva/Getty Images.

SAO PAULO, BRAZIL - OCTOBER 02: Former president of Brazil and candidate of Worker's Party (PT) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks to supporters at the end of the general election day at Paulista avenue on October 02, 2022 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. According to official results, Candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Workers’ Party (PT) has 48% of the votes and Incumbent and candidate Jair Bolsonaro of Liberal Party (PL) 43,57%, with 97,93 of the voting counted. Lula and Bolosonaro will compete in the presidential runoff on October 30, 2022. (Photo by Rodrigo Paiva/Getty Images)

By Francisco Dominguez – Oct 3, 2022

In the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections, Lula triumphed. But the threat of a Bolsonaro victory to the world is clear—and must be passionately fought in the upcoming run-off.

Brazil went to the polls yesterday [October 2] under unusual political circumstances: Lula, the Workers’ Party (PT) candidate and champion of the poor, confronted an extreme right-winger, racist, misogynist, homophobic, and pro-dictatorship ex-army captain Jair Bolsonaro. Lula won the first round with 48.42% of the vote and looks set to win in the second round. But Bolsonaro, defying polls’ predictions, performed better than expected, scoring 43.2%.

The background is important here. Brazil’s elite managed both to impeach PT president Dilma Rousseff in 2016 on false charges of fiscal improprieties (now fully exonerated) and to jail former president Lula, thus eliminating him from the 2018 presidential race. This emboldened Brazil’s establishment, who turned these successes into a push to ostracise the PT. In many places PT supporters were physically attacked. Bolsonaro’s supporters and extreme right-wing organisations went on the rampage.

In the process, traditional conservative parties got greatly discredited. The PSDB, a party that used to obtain between 54 and 38% of the vote, threw its lot behind Brazil Democratic Movement’s candidate, Simone Tebet, who trailed in the polls with 3-5%.

The elite as a whole (parties, leaders, institutions, media, and so forth) not only enthusiastically joined in the anti-PT crusade, but backed Bolsonaro’s candidacy with gusto. Thus Bolsonaro shocked Brazil by winning the 2018 presidential election with a hefty 55% against PT candidate Fernando Haddad with 42% (the lowest PT score since 2002). Bolsonaro’s handsome 2018 victory came on the back of a national and international political and media campaign that, using the Lava Jato corruption investigation into Petrobras (Brazil’s state oil company), targeted the PT, especially Lula.

Though there was plenty of coverage about Bolsonaro’s extreme views (he was labelled the “Trump of the Tropics,” as somebody making “controversial comments” about race, women, homosexuality, guns, democracy, etc.), the mainstream media would invariably “balance” criticism of Bolsonaro with references to the Lava Jato investigation leading to Lula’s imprisonment (even though they knew the investigation and trial had failed to prove his guilt).

But people had to live with the reality of Bolsonaro’s rule: his crass and brash style, his sheer incompetence managing government, his and his family’s involvement in corruption scandals, the drastic decline of the economy, the brutal austerity applied and the concomitant rise in poverty and unemployment, and, in particular, with his criminal handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

By October 2021, the total number of deaths by Covid-19 had surpassed 600,000. Bolsonaro openly discouraged people from getting vaccinated and wearing masks. By November 2021 his rate of approval had crashed to less than 20%. By September 2022, reportedly, 33 million Brazilians were going hungry in a country where PT governments had taken about 40 million people out of poverty.

To make matters worse, Bolsonaro incited violence, resulting in several PT supporters being murdered by bolsonaristas. He also reduced controls on obtaining weapons, resulting in the massive bulk-buying of firearms. It is estimated that since 2018, the number of “legal” guns in private hands has doubled to two million.

Bolsonaro’s electoral tactics
Bolsonaro’s popularity had begun to decline steadily as early as 2019 (in April that year it was 32%), and as the 2022 election approached, he resorted to a campaign of threats, repeatedly hinting he would not recognise the results, and even threatening to suspend the election.

Time eloquently reported on the wave of violence Bolsonaro incited:

Since [the violence was unleashed], attacks among political supporters have escalated, with several reports of beatings, assaults, stabbings and even murders. Last week, a 39-year-old man was stabbed to death at a bar in the northeastern state of Ceará after declaring his support for Lula […] A lawmaker belonging to da Silva’s Workers Party, Paulo Guedes, posted on social media that his car had been shot at three times by Bolsonaro supporters during a rally on Sept. 25.

PT supporters showed discipline and did not respond to the bolsonarista provocations. Then Bolsonaro went for a campaign to discredit Brazil’s electronic electoral system, the same one that recognised his victory in 2018.

In July, in an extraordinary act, Bolsonaro invited the diplomatic corps to his presidential residence to ‘brief’ them about Brazil’s electoral system being open to fraud. He falsely asserted that the system was vulnerable, but without evidence, and the electoral authorities debunked his claims repeatedly. Brazil’s electronic voting system has been in place since 1996 with no evidence of irregularities. The Supreme Electoral Council (TSE) unanimously condemned Bolsonaro’s meeting with the diplomats and slapped him with a fine of 20,000 Reals (about US$3,700).

The country’s election ombudsman, Benedito Gonçalves, also rebuked the Liberal Party for evading responsibility for a false report that challenged Brazil’s electoral integrity, which he said was produced and disclosed with the participation of the party leadership. Since May, Bolsonaro had said that the Liberal Party would seek to audit the electronic voting system as part of laying out the groundwork to contest the election results should he lose.

He claimed the polls pointing to a Lula victory were fake news, and on Election Day itself, after casting his vote, again sowed doubts about the election. Despite overwhelming evidence of the falsehood of Bolsonaro’s claims about the electoral system being prone to fraud, and the many public statements by the TSE and other authorities about it, such allegations continue to be spread in the bolsonarista social media.

In the last TV presidential debate on 29 September, Bolsonaro refused to answer a question from Soraya Thronickle (another presidential candidate) on whether if, since he claimed the election was barely clean, he had any intention to carry out a coup d’état.

Brazil’s changing establishment

Significant sections of Brazil’s establishment, realising that Bolsonaro had brought about a national economic catastrophe and a massive social and political crisis, seem to have come to the conclusion that Bolsonaro cannot be reined in. And, given their inability to bring forth a credible candidate from their own ranks that could beat Bolsonaro, they have drawn the conclusion that only Lula could do the job.

Thus, Lula’s running mate, Geraldo Alckim, represents something broader than the former president’s well-known political dexterity. I have already mentioned the hardening of the TSE’s attitude towards Bolsonaro’s repeated transgressions of electoral norms. The Supreme Court also previously quashed all charges and convictions against Lula, thereby making it possible for him to be presidential candidate, while Sergio Moro, Lula’s ferocious judge/prosecutor, is being investigated, and his home searched over breaches of electoral norms. The TSE also ordered the exclusion of videos Moro had published on YouTube for being in breach of electoral rules.

More significantly, the army issued a statement a few days ago declaring that it is a national institution conscious of its constitutional mission, clearing out bolsonarista rumours that it shared doubts about the electoral system. On election day, TSE president Alexandre Moraes dismissed any idea the armed forces would do their own independent counting of the votes. “The armed forces will have exactly the same [electoral] data as everyone else,” he said. “No more, no less.” The TSE also barred Bolsonaro from using his UN speech in his electoral campaign ads.

The change in the establishment’s attitude to Bolsonaro can be seen in the anti-Bolsonaro stance of the Brazilian media: Folha de Sao Paulo, Rede Globo, Estadão de Sao Paulo have all denounced Bolsonaro’s anti-democratic utterances and have had spats with him. The recent issue of Veja, an intensely conservative magazine, ran a front page featuring Bolsonaro’s face and the caption “The Bolsonaro Threat.”

Also significant has been the stance of key mainstream media outlets outside Brazil. Headlines such as “Jair Bolsonaro, ‘Tropical Trump,’ takes democracy to the brink,” “Bolsonaro’s obsessive gun policy endangers all Brazil” (in the Washington Post); “Bolsonaro might be beaten, and it feels too good to be true” (in the New York Times); “Win or lose, Jair Bolsonaro poses a threat to Brazilian democracy” (in the Economist); and “Bolsonaro promotes hatred: violence stalks run-up to crucial Brazil election” (in the Guardian) all point to Bolsonaro as a serious menace to democracy, but also to the Amazon, most of them suggesting that the rainforest’s fate rests on the election of Lula. For once, the mainstream media seem to have got it right.

The results so far
How has all this affected the results? Though there was a strong expectation, confirmed by most polls, that Lula would win in the first round, it was not to be. Historically the PT has emerged victorious only in the second round, as happened in 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014. Another common feature of PT presidential victories in those years was the inability of the party to win parliamentary majorities. That notwithstanding, in this election bolsonarismo has performed relatively better and the PT worse than in normal elections. (A more detailed analysis of the elections of deputies, senators, and governors would require a full article in itself, which can be better gauged after the second round.)

The rise of the phenomenon of Bolsonaro—until more recently aided and abetted by Brazil’s elite and its international allies, with the vigorous and assiduous help of the world mainstream media—generated a monstrosity that has acquired a life of its own. Due to years of persistent media and political demonisation of the party and its main leaders, especially Lula and Dilma, there is little doubt that a section of the working class has been alienated from supporting the PT. Bolsonaro took the demonisation to its extreme conclusion: the PT is not a rival to defeat, but a dangerous enemy to be exterminated.

Bolsonaro’s anti-PT campaign resulted, among other things, in influential politicians and evangelical pastors bombarding their constituents with warnings that if Lula won, he would close Christian churches. Lula was also depicted as favouring Afro Brazilian religions, playing on existing racial prejudices. (Evangelicals make up about a third of Brazil’s population.)

After having fully stopped the PT’s Bolsa Familia poverty-eradication programme, Bolsonaro launched the Auxílio Brasil programme, giving 600 Reals monthly and claiming to reach 20 million families. Lula’s criticism of Auxílio Brazil’s limitations as compared to his Bolsa Familia led to an immediate smear campaign claiming that he would stop it, with attendant negative electoral consequences for the PT.

Add to that the aggressive campaign of violence against PT individuals and PT rallies, Bolsonaro’s hate speeches especially against feminism, women, the LGBT community, and liberal values, and his hard line on crime—through which he has encouraged the middle class to purchase guns—all delivered in an intensely socially conservative country, and this goes some way to explain bolsonarismo’s continuing electoral strength.

What lies ahead
Simone Tebet, MDB presidential candidate (with nearly 4% of the vote) has already declared her unambiguous support for Lula in the second round. Ciro Gomes, candidate of the PDT and hitherto a prominent national political figure of the centre left, who obtained barely 3% of the vote, has, however, equivocated on every issue the nation has faced in the last 4-6 years (in 2018 interview he said “Brazil cannot endure a leftist government”). He is unlikely to call to support Lula in the second round and likely to fade into total insignificance. The above means that the second round is anything but a foregone conclusion, though Lula has the edge.

Given their electoral performance, Bolsonaro and bolsonarismo remain a serious threat to Brazilian democracy that would probably be willing to resort to strong-arm tactics to get their way. Additionally, the ambivalence towards democracy by sections of the military top brass (Bolsonaro’s running mate is general Walter Braga Neto, who was Bolsonaro’s minister of defence and is not fond of democracy), and the reports that the 400,000 strong, trigger-happy military police are fond of Bolsonaro remain disturbing features of Brazilian politics.

In the face of such circumstances, the solidarity movement in the UK must remain vigilant and be ready to redouble our efforts in the eventuality of any bolsonarista threats. A Lula victory in the second round is nothing less than the precondition to preserve Brazil’s democracy.

https://orinocotribune.com/the-amazons-last-chance/
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Re: Brazil

Post by blindpig » Wed Oct 12, 2022 1:55 pm

Bolsonaro questions Brazil's electoral system again

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Bolsonaro has even threatened not to recognize the results in the event of a defeat. | Photo: EFE
Published October 12, 2022 (7 hours 8 minutes ago)

In his comments, Jair Bolsonaro anticipates a possible failure by denouncing fraud in electronic ballot boxes without showing evidence.

A little more than 15 days before the second round of elections in Brazil, the current president and candidate of the Liberal Party (PL) Jair Bolsonaro questioned again this Tuesday the legitimacy of his country's electoral system during a campaign event.

In his speech, Bolsonaro attacked the PT member Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, questioning the number of votes achieved by his opponent, "if the people are not on his side."

“The result will be what all of us expect because the other side (the left) cannot bring anyone together. We are all distrustful," Bolsonaro said in the town of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul.


The far-right candidate is seeking re-election, but anticipates a possible failure by denouncing possible fraud in the electronic polls without showing evidence.

Bolsonaro revived the criticism and accusations against his followers and called on them to "remain in the area of ​​the electoral section" where they exercise the vote until the results are published, at the risk of violating the regulations of the Brazilian electoral law that prohibits crowds in the schools.


Despite the guarantees of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and the presence of international organizations and experts as observers during the elections, Bolsonaro has even threatened not to recognize the results in the event of a defeat.

In the first round of October 2, Lula da Silva surpassed the far-right candidate by 48.4 percent against 43.2 percent of popular support, although it was insufficient for him to reinstate himself directly in the Government, so he will attend the ballot on October 30 as well. as a favourite.

https://www.telesurtv.net/news/bolsonar ... -0002.html

Google Translator

*******

Lula Expects to Defeat Bolsonaro on Oct 30 Runoff Election

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Leftist candidate Luis Inácio Lula da Silva will visit the municipality of Belford Roxo, in Rio de Janeiro, this week, as part of his campaign for the runoff election. Oct. 10, 2022. | Photo: Twitter/@BrianMteleSUR

Published 10 October 2022

Former President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva's expectations are on winning the second round of elections "with a bigger difference."


This Monday, in an interview with Super Rádio Tupi of Rio de Janeiro, the leader of the Workers' Party (PT) said the recent support collected "means the possibility of winning the elections in the second round with a greater difference."

On this occasion, Lula announced a two-day visit to the country's third most important state in votes. "I'm going to dialogue with the people of Rio de Janeiro. I'm going to try to win more votes in Rio de Janeiro because my idea is to win the election over Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro."

"We are going to make Rio de Janeiro one of the engines of the Brazilian economy again, as I did in my previous government," Lula said.

The leftist candidate will visit this week the municipality of Belford Roxo, in the populous Baixada Fluminense, the suburban sector that is considered key to closing the gap with Bolsonaro in this state.

In the first round, Lula was defeated against Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro by a difference of about one million votes.


MST WITH LULA IN RIO DE JANEIRO!

Already separate the red look, the flag and the cap that we have two appointments with our future president in Rio de Janeiro. Tomorrow, Tuesday, we meet in Belfort Roxo with Lula and Waguinho at 19:00 in Brasil da Esperança.

The run-off election in Brazil is scheduled for October 30, when leftist candidate Lula will face far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro. Neither reached 50 percent of the valid votes plus one in the first round, with 48.4 percent and 43.2 percent of the valid votes, respectively.

Last week, third in the first round of the elections, center-right Senator Simone Tebet, of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), announced her support for Lula.

Ciro Gomes, of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), also expressed his support for the leftist Lula, as did former Brazilian president (1994-2002) Henrique Cardoso.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Lul ... -0017.html

Lula: 9-Point Lead Over Bolsonaro in Brazil’s Runoff Election

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The former president of Brazil and current presidential candidate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, greets his supporters during a tour through the streets of the municipality of Guarulhos | Photo: EFE / Sebastião Moreira

Published 10 October 2022

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011) holds a nine-point lead over President Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff to be held on October 30, according to the Ipec poll released on Monday.


According to this poll, Lula would have 51 percent of the votes, against Bolsonaro's 42 percent.

The survey indicates stability concerning the voting intentions detected on October 5; Lula remains with the same percentage. Bolsonaro fell one point, within the margin of error, which is two points up and down.

Taking into account only valid votes (discounting blank and null ballots), the left-wing leader would win with 55 percent support, while the extreme right-wing candidate would have 45 percent.

The survey was conducted between October 8 and 10 based on interviews with 2,000 people in 130 municipalities throughout Brazil.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Lul ... -0013.html

The 'Asphalt Cartel' Swindled Millions During Bolsonaro's Rule

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President Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil, 2022. | Photo: Twitter/ @emirsader

The Brazilian far-right president "handed over control of the state-owned company to Centrão lawmakers in exchange for political support," Brasil de Fato said.


On Monday, the Brazilian outlet Folha de Sao Paulo published information showing that the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) found evidence of fraud for some US$192 million in contracts from the Sao Francisco & Parnaiba Valley Development Company (CODEVASF).

The judges detected that a cartel of contractors manipulated the results of the public tenders called during the administration of President Jair Bolsonaro. The TCU audit report recommended suspending the start of new public works linked to the suspicious offers.

However, this recommendation was not heeded by Jorge Oliveira, the judge in the case, whom the Brazilian president nominated for the Federal Court.

The corruption scheme's main beneficiary would be the Maranhao Engefort Construction Company, which won public contracts worth US$172 million, using the paper company Del to handle part of the 2021 bidding processes.


The tweet reads, "Jair Bolsonaro sympathizer teacher makes the Nazi salute in the classroom. This happened in Parana and the Directorate condemned the educator's attitude."

The TCU audit also found a drastic reduction in the average discount of bids from 24.5 percent in 2019 to 5.32 percent in 2021. In this last year, for example, the Engefort company won 50 bids, in which it granted an average discount of 1 percent, well below the standard. This was not, however, the first complaint associated with CODEVASF.

On Oct. 4, the Federal Police's Odoacro Operation presented evidence of fraud in the bids and embezzlement of funds in the works awarded to that company. As a result, authorities dismissed a manager. According to data from the NGO Contas Abertas published by oulet G1, the Bolsonaro administration authorized a budget of US$1.7 billion for CODEVASF since 2019.

"Using a multi-million dollar budget, Bolsonaro handed over control of the state-owned company to Centrão lawmakers in exchange for political support," Brasil de Fato commented.

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Re: Brazil

Post by blindpig » Mon Oct 17, 2022 1:32 pm

Brazilian presidential candidates participate in television debate prior to the second round

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Lula blamed Bolsonaro for numerous current problems in the country during the debate broadcast by the media. | Photo: EFE
Published 16 October 2022

Among the topics addressed were education, the management of the Covid-19 pandemic and infrastructure programs.

The former president and presidential candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) and the current president and candidate for reelection, Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal), held this Sunday the first of their face-to-face television debates prior to the second round of elections in Brazil.

The main topics addressed during the debate were education, the management of the Covid-19 pandemic and infrastructure programs.

In a second block, the candidates answered questions from journalists, related to the separation of powers, the privatization of Petrobras, price policy, fuels and the regulation of fake news, among other topics.


Lula recalled that during the PT mandates, social inclusion policies were applied that allowed the generation of 22 million jobs, increase the minimum wage and create 18 universities and a significant number of technical schools, while Bolsonaro only inaugurated one, whose construction was It began during the administration of Dilma Rousseff.

He pointed out that his government program attaches great importance to a fiscal policy that would reduce taxes on the poor and increase them on the wealthiest.

He asked his adversary how many universities and technical schools were created during his administration. Bolsonaro evaded the issue and declared that his government implemented the Brazil Aid program, whose financial amount exceeded the aid brought to the people by another program, Bolsa Familia, articulated during the PT governments.

Pandemic Management
Lula stated that Bolsonaro had a permanent denialist attitude towards the coronavirus and the role of science in confronting it, and that he was slow to respond to Covid-19.


He recalled that Brazil received offers to sell vaccines well in advance and did not purchase them. He blamed him for nearly 400,000 deaths caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the South American nation, which could have been avoided.

He pointed out that a Senate commission investigated the response to the pandemic and, among other issues, revealed a fraudulent scheme around the purchase of the antigens. He expressed his hope that the Prosecutor's Office investigates these acts of corruption.


The far-right president acknowledged that he was contrary to the protocol defended by the health authorities of placing infected people in isolation.

On the other hand, he blamed the governors of some states for corruption events that, according to him, hindered the purchase of medical oxygen, with which he tried to disassociate himself from criticism that his government received for this problem.


Security and infrastructure program
Lula stressed that during his government five maximum security prisons were built. He asked Bolsonaro how many were built during his administration.

The current president also evaded this question and tried to link Lula to crime and hold the PT responsible for acts of corruption that occurred in the country, as happened in the state oil company Petrobras.

Lula recalled that he was the only president who entered a favela without a bulletproof vest and he did so because he believes in the people. He pointed out that he visited the Complexo de Alemao to interact with working men and women, and rejected the idea that the bandits are among the poor layers of the population.


Later he added that his government implemented public policies to reduce inequalities and these contributed to lifting 36 million people out of poverty.

He pointed out that another achievement was the infrastructure program launched during his administration. He valued that it has been the largest implemented in the South American country and that it has allowed the generation of tens of thousands of jobs. He said that the current president does not have any project to build roads or bring water to the northeastern regions.


At another point, Lula considered the Bolsonaro strategy of privatizing or dismantling Petrobras unwise, and made it clear that this will lead to an increase in fuel prices in the country.

The founder of the Workers' Party obtained 48.4 percent of the votes during the first round, compared to 43.2 percent capitalized by Bolsonaro.

https://www.telesurtv.net/news/candidat ... -0021.html

Google Translator

**************

Vote For Bolsonaro Or Lose Your Pension: Election Fraud Brought 1 Million Extra Elderly To Polls
By BRASILWIRE October 15, 2022

Old-school electoral fraud casts shadow over the October 30th presidential runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro.

A study by ValorData has demonstrated how Bolsonaro campaign misinformation which associated receipt of pensions with proof of voting for the far-right president, brought almost 1 million more elderly people to the polls in the 2022 first round than voted four years ago.

This accounts for some of the “last minute swing” to Bolsonaro which was famously missed by polling agencies. The threat of losing their pensions mobilised over 70s, whom are not obligated, to vote.

While the number of abstentions for people from 50 to 98 years old fell in 2022, the rate of abstention in other age groups grew.

With no new scandal or information in play during the final days of the election, observers have sought to explain why polls had underestimated Bolsonaro, and Lula, whom was expected to win outright in the first round, came an agonising 1.57% short of avoiding a second round runoff against the far-right incumbent.

Other factors are in play which go beyond normal and legal political campaigning. For example, uneven abstentions damaged frontrunner Lula, and blamed on organised groups of Bolsonaro supporting volunteers causing delays at polling stations. Google’s YouTube platform has also been found to have been pushing Pro-Bolsonaro content to Brazilian voters during the election, a Rio Federal University Study has found. Social media giant Meta has been found to be failing in its promises to control rampant and hysterical disinformation from the Bolsonaro campaign and its allies.

But the “vote 22 or lose your pension” is the most brazen attempt to manipulate the election yet discovered, and amounts to electoral fraud.

The Bolsonaro campaign’s trick dates back to February 3, when the National Institute of Social Security published a new INSS (National Institute of Social Security) ordinance that included proof of voting as proof of life for retirees and pensioners. Thus, election biometrics, for the first time, allowed this group of people to update their records, and prove life, without making a special visit to a bank, for example.

Off the back of this, the Bolsonaro campaign published a brazenly deceptive video, entitled “Prova de Vida” which ended with the message: “For the good of Brazil, vote 22” As a result, the Bolsonaro government electoral manouver brought almost a million elderly out to vote – for him.

Image

The TSE Electoral Court ordered the removal of the video, but not before millions had seen it, believed it, and voted accordingly. It’s effect casts a shadow over the October 30 runoff.

“Now it’s law. In these elections, you who are retired or pensioner can make your proof of life straight from the polls. The federal government did away with unnecessary commuting and made your life easier. Just your vote is enough to guarantee INSS benefits, so you can exercise your right to citizenship with less bureaucracy. For the good of Brazil, vote 22”, stated the campaign video which circulated on social networks.

Before the first round, presidential candidate Simone Tebet’s campaign requested that the video be removed. However, it was only last week, after the vote which narrowly kept Bolsonaro in the race for the presidency, that Supreme Court Justice Carmen Lúcia finally accepted the request. In justifying the decision, the Carmen Lúcia state that the message induces voters to think that proof of life depends on voting for Bolsonaro.

“The video in question presents content produced to misinform, as the message transmitted induces voters to believe that it is possible to carry out their proof of life in the INSS by voting for number 22, which affects the integrity of the electoral process and the voter’s own will to exercise their right to vote”, said the STF minister.

According to the February ordinance, any document that proves the movement of the elderly could be used as proof of life. Vaccination records, consultations with the Unified Health System (SUS), proof of voting in elections, issuance of passports, identity or driver’s cards, among others, can now be used as proof of life. Even with all these documents available to acquire proof of life, the proof of vote was the most publicized by the INSS campaign.

In total, abstention in the first round rose compared to 2018. It went from 20.3% to 20.9%. But it is in the breakdown in age group (and location) where increase in rate of abstention becomes more relevant. While the number of abstentions among 20 to 24 year olds grew by 2.4%, among older voters the movement was opposite. Abstention dropped by 5.8 percentage points in the 70-74 age group, which is significant, as it represents an age group whom are not required to vote, which is obligatory under the Brazilian constitution for younger people.

The Bolsonaro campaign will unlikely pay any significant immediate price for these tactics, and election observers must be aware of the various means by which it seeks to manipulate the result before the October 30th runoff.

https://www.brasilwire.com/vote-for-bol ... r-pension/

**********

Brazil Prepares for a Fierce Second Round Presidential Election
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on OCTOBER 14, 2022
Zoe Alexandra

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Brazil electionsLula rally in Maceió, Alagoas. Photo: Ricardo Stuckert

Following the first round of the presidential election, the campaigns, especially that of right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro, have focused on personal attacks and allegations

As presidential candidates Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro prepare for the Brazilian run-off election on October 30, tensions are high across the country. Campaigning has heated up and the already existing polarization of society is deepening. While campaigning for the first round focused mainly on programs and promises, the run-up to the second round has already seen both campaigns going on the offensive.

With just over two weeks left until the historic run-off elections, we take a look at the major areas of dispute and debate.

The dispute over the truth

The 2018 Brazilian elections made history due to the extent to which deliberately crafted, sensationalist and spurious facts aka “fake news” were spread by groups associated with the Bolsonaro campaign. The intensity and speed at which such fake news was spread via Whatsapp and social media platforms was a key factor in his victory. In 2018, some of the fake news favorites were claims of the electronic voting system being unreliable and fraudulent, supposed corruption and criminality in the Workers’ Party (PT), its ‘links’ to illegal elements, how the PT candidate Fernando Haddad apparently planned to force homosexuality on children, and the absurd allegation that when he was Minister of Education, he distributed “gay kits” in primary schools. Messages with these claims reached thousands of WhatsApp groups in the weeks leading up to the elections.

The lies that were spread in the 2018 elections have since been debunked and the mechanisms used for this operation have been studied as a permanent global threat to democracy in the digital age.

In these elections, especially following the first round, the barrage of fake news has returned in an attempt to influence voters, especially the 21% who abstained in the first round. Articles and videos are being circulated about Lula’s so-called plan to close down churches, of his being pro-abortion, promoting youth drug consumption, attacking the ‘Brazilian family,’ and being a Satan worshipper. Social media platforms have become constant battlegrounds in a tug of war as campaigns push these messages and debunk them.

pic.twitter.com/YDfZwi4q63

— Carlos Bolsonaro 2️⃣2️⃣ (@CarlosBolsonaro) September 30, 2022


One of the most common lines of attack against Lula is the claim that he is a convicted criminal and thief, and committed acts of corruption. These claims cite as evidence the fact that he spent 580 days in prison. They conveniently omit the fact that Lula has been cleared of all charges and convictions as it was ruled that former judge and former member of Bolsonaro’s government, Sergio Moro, had clear political motivations for these convictions.

The ‘criminality’ of Lula is extended to accuse him of being involved in organized crime and drug trafficking. Most recently, an audio recording of an alleged conversation between two leaders of the PCC (Primeiro Comando da Capital, one the largest gangs in Brazil) stating that Lula is a better president for organized crime was published on Bolsonaro’s social media platforms. In July, when similar fake news about the relationship between the PT and the PCC was circulated, the party published a declaration stating that there was no connection between the two entities and highlighted that Bolsonaro’s broadening access to gun ownership helps get the group access to more arms.

pic.twitter.com/c2svVZGf2n

— Jair M. Bolsonaro 2️⃣2️⃣ (@jairbolsonaro) October 9, 2022


Racism and classism

In the first round of elections on October 2, the region which showed the highest level of support for the PT candidate was the Northeast. Lula won the region composed of the States of Alagoas, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Piauí, and Rio Grande do Norte, by 66.7% compared to Bolsonaro’s 27%. In the State of Piauí, Lula won an overwhelming 74.3% of the votes. The region has been a historic stronghold of the PT and specifically of Lula, due to the impact of his social and economic policies that sought to reverse the historical oppression and exclusion of the region. The Northeast is majority Black, and was the focal point of agricultural production during the period of slavery in Brazil, which has lasting legacies today as seen in its economic underdevelopment and the institutional racism.

Bolsonaro’s racist and anti-poor policies and words have been rejected overwhelmingly by the people of the Northeast since his presidential campaign in 2018.

Following the first round this year, Bolsonaro has organized a series of campaign activities there in an attempt to win some votes, but above all, he and his supporters have made racist and classist comments criticizing the voters there.

During a meeting with 200 allied parliamentarians on October 6 at the president’s official residence, Palácio da Alvorada, Bolsonaro said, “Lula won in the 9 out of 10 States with the highest rates of illiteracy. Do you know which states these are? In our Northeast, and it is not just the high rate of illiteracy that is the most concerning in these States. Other economic indicators are also low in the region, because these States of the Northeast have been administered by the PT for 20 years.”

On social media, comments made by Bolsonaro’s base were even more hateful and prejudiced.

A Bolsonaro-supporting influencer, Rodrigo Constantino, tweeted a map of Brazil on election night with the Northeast region painted red and wrote “Cuba of the South”. He wrote: “We have a clear conclusion in these elections: the part of the country that receives the most [government aid] decides about the part of the country that produces the biggest part of the GDP.”

Temos uma conclusão clara nessas eleições: a parte do país que mais recebe assistencialismo decide sobre a parte do país que mais produz para o PIB. pic.twitter.com/A1pEFkqrCH

— Rodrigo Constantino (@Rconstantino) October 2, 2022


Economic game

The devastating economic crisis in Brazil is impossible to ignore. The campaign in support of Lula has consistently focused on how the Brazilian economy has crumbled in the period following the impeachment of Dilma due to neoliberal economic policies adopted by Michel Temer and current president and candidate Jair Bolsonaro. The promise that Lula will not only create social programs for the most vulnerable to end poverty and hunger, but also will strengthen the GDP and the value of the currency, the real, is a cornerstone of his campaign.

Due to the palpable economic deterioration, Bolsonaro has also been forced to respond with a counter attack. Much of this response has been focused on spreading the same disinformation that Lula and the PT are thieves and corrupt criminals and today’s economic crisis is a result of them.

However, Bolsonaro has also strategically distributed economic aid for low-income families through his Auxilio Brasil program to coincide with the election season and has even increased the amount they receive. It is worth noting that programs such as Bolsa Familia and other economic aid programs created under the PT governments that gave substantially more aid to families were cut.

On social media, Bolsonaro and his allies claim credit every time the price of meat or gasoline drops.

– Mesmo que o PT tenha se posicionado contra a redução de ICMS, o Brasil vence sem falsas promessas ou mentiras e os preços continuam caindo dentro da logística até o receptor final que é consumidor, mesmo com os reflexos de uma pandemia e uma guerra que atingem a todo mundo! pic.twitter.com/MPLk6Ej2xT

— Jair M. Bolsonaro 2️⃣2️⃣ (@jairbolsonaro) October 13, 2022


Polls

Voter intention polls in Brazil were harshly criticized after the first round results turned out to be significantly different from what many of them had predicted. Most polls on average predicted that Lula would receive around 46-48%, which he did, but the majority indicated that Bolsonaro would not receive more than 35% of votes whereas he received 43%.

That being said, they continue to play a key role in campaign strategies and primary targets. The Atlas Intel poll released on October 13 predicts that Lula will receive 52.4% of the valid votes and Bolsonaro 47.6%, while in total votes, Lula has 51.1% and Bolsonaro 46.5%. The survey indicated that 2.4% of voters are still undecided or intend to cancel their vote or cast a blank ballot.

The Quaest poll, also published on October 13, shows Lula in the lead by eight points with 49% in total votes. When valid votes are taken into account, i.e., not counting whites, nulls and abstentions, Lula has 53% of the preference, against 47% for Bolsonaro. Quaest’s methodology for this poll attempted to take into account the possibility of abstention that was so prevalent in the first round at 21% and used the concept of “likely voter.”

The experience of the first round and the divergence from the voter intention polls means that both campaigns are not giving into complacency or resignation and frenetic election work will continue till October 30.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2022/10/ ... -election/
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Re: Brazil

Post by blindpig » Wed Oct 19, 2022 2:42 pm

Telesur’s Brian Mier on Brazil Presidential Elections: There Is No Evidence of Vote Stealing in the First Round
OCTOBER 17, 2022

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Poster with details of the interview and a photo of Lula Da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro as a watermark. Photo: Orinoco Tribune.

Caracas, Oct 16, 2022 (OrinocoTribune.com)— In a special to OT’s continuing coverage of Brazil, editor Jesús Rodriguez-Espinoza recently had the pleasure of sitting down with Chicago ex-pat and now São Paulo-based journalist Brian Mier.

Mier is a Telesur English correspondent in Brazil and co-editor of Brasil Wire. Having lived in Brazil for almost 30 years, he is a leading voice on Brazilian issues for English speakers worldwide.

During the interview, we discussed the most pressing issues in the upcoming election. We summarize some of his responses and provide a transcript of the whole interview below.

1- Possible electoral results, taking into consideration recent important endorsements of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, like those from Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet, along with recently raised accusations of vote stealing and the manipulation of religion to favor Bolsonaro.

If the elections were today, Lula would win, but there are two weeks until the second round. The endorsement from Simone Tebet, who finished in 3rd place and is now actively campaigning with Lula, will provide the necessary votes to secure Lula’s victory. In the case of Ciro Gomes, the scenario is not as clear. Many poll experts in Brazil have pointed out that Gomes’ attacks against Lula during the final days of the campaign before the first round ended up helping Bolsonaro; many believe his supporters are going to split 50/50.

For Mier, there was no evidence of vote stealing during the first round. However, there was significant evidence of Bolsonaro’s social media campaigns using illegal funding from economic powers in an attempt to influence voters, particularly those in the evangelical groups. He explained that evangelical groups are the more active support base for Bolsonaro, but they only represent 31% of the population, and Lula still has considerable support within that demographic.

2- Balance of power within Brazil, paying attention to the balance of forces within Congress, the military, media, and the real relevance of grassroots movements.

In relation to the balance of power within Congress, the journalist explained that the Workers’ Party increased its presence in Congress and that Lula is accustomed to dealing with a Congress where he does not have a majority. To Mier, there are misunderstandings of this issue, especially among analysts outside Brazil. Concerning grassroots movements, he highlighted the gains of the Landless Workers’ Movement (MST), which gained six seats in state and federal congresses, and the work they are doing canvassing and cultivating the push for Lula’s victory in the second round. The endeavors of the Workers’ Party (PT) and its machinery are also notable, organizing massive mobilizations far exceeding Bolsonaro’s.

In connection with the military, Mier remarked, the autocoup narrative was launched by Bolsonaro himself. Referring to an internal military study that was leaked in Brazil’s press, he said that there may be support for this risky endeavor from the Air Force and the Navy, but not from the Army, which is more powerful than the two other forces combined. In Mier’s view, even the support that Bolsonaro has within state military police has been diminishing, making the autocoup scenario less likely.

On the topic of media, the co-editor of Brasil Wire noted how the Brazilian media is still embedded in the military dictatorship of the 60s and, thus, in the economic establishment. Even though Mier believes that media support for Bolsonaro has been decreasing because his project has been different from what was initially expected, some in the media have been showing support for Lula while they prepare the ground to attack him eventually.

3- International developments’ impact on the electoral debate, and the impact of Lula’s possible victory on the return of progressive governments in Latin America. Prospects of new lawfare campaigns against Lula.

On this particular point, Brian Mier referenced the attacks that leftist leaders, such as President Maduro in Venezuela, receive from the international left, which he sees as connected to academic Trotskyist circles in the United States who also attack Lula. He mentioned Lula’s comments on the alternation of political power and how the media has twisted them to make them sound like an attack on Nicolás Maduro and Daniel Ortega. However, Lula generally tries to be very respectful of the internal political affairs of these countries.

(Video at link)

Looking back, Lula’s relationships with the so-called “axis of evil” countries like Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Venezuela were always very positive and constructive. A high point was during the 4th Summit of the Americas in Mar de Plata, Argentina, in 2003, when Lula and Hugo Chávez buried the US-led initiative known as the “Free Trade Agreement for the Americas” (FTAA). Mier added that unlike Venezuela, the military in Brazil doesn’t have political training in the military exists, .

According to Mier, “Lula’s victory would be good for the sovereignty of peoples in Latin America, especially in South America, and it would be a move forward for the continent in general.”

Considering that Brazil is a domestically-focused country, partly because of the linguistic barrier of being a Portuguese-speaking country surrounded by Spanish-speaking countries, Mier believes that Brazilians are not caught up in Washington’s New Cold War narrative against China and Russia. He expects that this position will continue under Lula.

When asked about the possibilities of restarting or reshaping lawfare attacks against Lula, meaning initiating weak and bogus judicial charges to disqualify him, take him out of office, or disqualify him from any political race, Mier clarified that all the charges used against Lula in the Lava Jato (Car Wash) case have no chance of being restarted. However, that does not affect possible attempts of other kinds. The Telesur English journalist believes that Brazilians are tired of this drama.

Our editor thanked Brian Mier for accepting the invitation and giving such an informative talk while acknowledging the immense respect that Orinoco Tribune has for Mier’s work, to which he responded that he is also a big fan of Orinoco Tribune.

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Transcript

Welcome everyone, today we have an interview with Brian Mier directly from Brazil, and it’s an honor for us to have him here. He has been a correspondent for Telesur English in Brazil, and he is also a co-editor of Brasil Wire. He also is the editor of the book “Year of Lead: Washington, Wall Street, and the New Imperialism in Brazil,” and he also has been living in Brazil for more than 25 years.

Welcome, Brian. I will just jump into the first question, which is basically, who do you think is going to win? Taking into consideration the recent endorsements of Gomes and Tebet to Lula, but also taking into consideration the “stealing of votes” debate that has been arising after the first round, and also the religious debate within Brazil that I understand is very influential in people’s decisions. So, welcome again, and you can jump into the answers.


You know, a lot can happen in two weeks. If the election were held today, Lula would win. You know, Lula won the first round by over 6 million votes—6.2 million votes. It was the first time since the return to democracy in 1985 that a challenger beat the incumbent president in the first round of an election.

The media spun it as much more negative results than expected. There were some surprises: Bolsonaro did a little bit better—about six points better—than he was appearing in the polls, and some of the gubernatorial races where the left didn’t do as well as planned. But the left, now specifically the PT, the Workers’ Party, picked up a 21% increase in members of congress and picked up, since 2019, a 50% increase in number of senators, so there was some, you know, in general, it was positive.

There were a few disappointing results, like Haddad for governor. He was expected to win—to lead—after the first round, but he ended up behind Bolsonaro’s candidate. Anyway, Lula only needs, like, 1.6 million votes to win. Simone Tebet, who came in third place, she had about 5 million votes total, and she’s now endorsing Lula; she’s campaigning with him, she’s going to campaign events, and is very enthusiastically supporting Lula. So just from her votes, even if Lula got half of her votes, it would be enough to win in the second round. Unless there’s a major change in the number of abstentions, or something like that. If a lot more people abstain, that would help Bolsonaro.

Ciro Gomes has been more negative than positive. In fact, one of the explanations for the surge in votes for Bolsonaro at the last minute is that Ciro Gomes’ support—he was polling at, like, seven or eight percent, and he ended up with three percent of the votes—the director of one of the largest polling agencies thinks most of those votes went to Bolsonaro. And the reason is that Ciro spent the last two months running really dirty attack ads against Lula instead of going after Bolsonaro, and some of these ads even use this “fashwave” graphic style, which is popular with the international far right. So it’s hard to say what’s going to happen with his remaining votes; the people who did vote for him—he ended up with, like, three percent—but most people think it’s gonna split about 50/50. At this point, between Lula and Bolsonaro, that wouldn’t be enough for Bolsonaro to win.

In terms of vote stealing, there’s no evidence that any votes were stolen. What there is a lot of evidence of is the illegal use of WhatsApp and other social media applications targeting specific demographics, with illegal campaign funding from corporate sectors: from bourgeoisie comprador elites in Brazil that target, for example, evangelical Christians heavily with disinformation, such as, “If Lula’s elected, he’s going to change all of the bathrooms in the public school system so that anybody can use them regardless of gender,” or that “he’s going to close down all of the Evangelical churches.” So this is causing some problems; however, it’s important to remember that evangelicals are only 31% of Brazil’s population. They’ve been Bolsonaro’s main support group for the last four years. However, his support has been slipping among that demographic, despite all of the fake news campaigns. Lula basically doubled support of the evangelical population for the Workers’ Party through a lot of base-level organizing. It’s not hard to pull out lessons from the Bible and explain how Jair Bolsonaro is not acting like a Christian.

It’s good that you clarified that because I was worried about the whole issue, especially the vote stealing that has been coming up in recent days, especially after the first round, of course, so it’s good to know that there was no real concern on that particular issue.

Bolsonaro created a special military commission with the intention that they would prove that there was some vote stealing going on. Because Bolsonaro is pushing this narrative that the electronic voting system is susceptible to fraud, which it’s never been connected with any kind of fraud, proven. And even his own hand-picked commission of military people was unable to prove one case of fraud. So the real fraud that’s happening is manipulating the public opinion illegally, using illegal tactics, but not the actual voting process.

Let me jump now to the second question, which is connected to the balance of power. And in that particular area, there are different institutions that one has to analyze. The one that concerns me the most is the balance of power in congress after the elections. After the first round I mean, and also the grassroots movement, how strong are the grassroots movements in Brazil in helping Lula to win, if you see a connection there? And of course, the military and the media, but everyone knows how it works. But anyway, it’s good to hear it from someone from Brazil.

In terms of grassroots mobilization, Lula has been putting hundreds of thousands of people on the streets in city after city. He was in Salvador the day before yesterday, and over 150,000 people were on the street behind him. And this is due a lot to the base of the Workers’ Party, which is labor unions and social movements.

So for example, the Landless Rural Workers Movement, the MST, is the largest social movement in the Americas—the largest working-class social movement. And they have been on the streets. For the first time in its history, the Landless Rural Workers’ Movement, or the MST—they fielded 15 candidates for state and federal congress. They’ve never been able to—they’ve never tried—there’s been a few incidents in the last 40 years when they’ve fielded one or another candidate; it’s always been hard to mobilize the vote in rural areas, right? This time, they managed to put six MST members into federal and state congress[es], which is a historic first. And they’re going to be, you know, all of those apparatus are canvassing for Lula right now, working for Lula, all of the vote, all of the political organizing operations that they set up for their candidates.

Brian, in comparison with those movements, I mean the PT machinery and the MST, does Bolsonaro have a counter response in social movements that support him?

Well, if you look at the crowds on the streets, he’s not able to put many people on the streets. Like, you see some images of him in front of these huge crowds, these are large religious events that would have happened anyway that he appears at. For example, the national March for Jesus, which is an evangelical holiday—ironically, that was declared a holiday by Lula, when Lula was president—that every year brings hundreds of thousands of people to the streets of São Paulo. And so Bolsonaro appeared at that event, and he’s using the footage in his commercials as if that was a rally for him. His actual rallies are much smaller, but a lot of his support is through evangelical churches and evangelical pastors. So you could say that was, that that’s his main support base. As well as the military police officers and things like that; there’s no labor unions supporting Bolsonaro.

What about the balance of power in congress? I read somewhere that he is not going—if Lula wins, he’s not going to have an easy task in that particular area.

Yeah, I think this analysis is based on a misunderstanding of Brazil’s congress. During the height of Lula’s first government, the Workers’ Party never had more than 25% of the seats in congress, and they never had more than 14 senators out of 81 total members of the Senate. So with those numbers, you add on the close allies, which is the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB), and this year, the Green Party (PV) has joined as well, and REDE—very small parties. But even if you add all of the allies, even if you add PSOL, which is a traditional ally in congress with the PT, they have a total of a little over a hundred members of congress in a congress of 514 people.

The important thing is that the number of congress members increased by 21%, back to the level that it was at during Dilma Rousseff’s presidency. So it’s hard to spin this as a negative, as the foreign press is trying to do, when they [PT] actually increased seats both in the house and in the Senate. Now, when Lula was president, he had to do a lot of things by executive order, by decree. And then also, he had to make alliances with center-right parties in order to govern. This led to a lot of criticism from bourgeois vanguard leftists, you know, from Brooklyn or something, saying his government was neoliberal when, in fact, if you look, the Workers’ Party is much farther left than any Workers’ Party government has ever been because of the need for these coalitions to govern.

Unfortunately, or fortunately—however you want to look at it—Brazil has a very large middle class, and you can’t govern the country, unfortunately, just for the working class in this type of capitalist system that Brazil has. Short of an armed revolution or something like that, it would be impossible to govern without some of these center-right parties, which trace their roots back to the military dictatorship. There was amnesty for everyone, and they allowed all of congress and Senate to remain in power after the end of the dictatorship, so they just created two new political parties: (P)MDB and PFL.

PFL changed its name several times, but it’s still the second biggest party in the senate in congress; it’s called União Brasil now. This was the official political party of the neofascist military dictatorship. And the official opposition party, the MDB, is the party of Simone Tebet, who just came in third and who’s now supporting Lula. Unlike, for example, Argentina, where they put former generals in jail and things like that, they’ve never really fully transitioned back from dictatorship to democracy in Brazil. You can see that, for example, in the behavior of the military police, who don’t have to follow the rule of law in Brazil; they have their own internal court system. So this is what makes the situation really complicated and easy to misinterpret. It’s easy for someone who—living in the United States or something, who’s never lived under a left-wing government—to just say it’s neoliberal or something.

That happened a lot with Lula during his first two terms, that’s true. So the military is a more complex stadium, according to what you were just saying, right? And what about media?

Let me get into the military really quick. There was an internal issue: as you know, in the last year and a half, Bolsonaro has been threatening to hold an autocoup if he doesn’t win the elections. So the defense department did an internal study of the military to see which branches of the military leadership would support Bolsonaro in a possible autocoup attempt, and the results were leaked to the media, and they’re kind of surprising. First of all, the navy and the air force would support Bolsonaro if he tries to hold a coup, but the army would not, according to this internal study. The army is bigger than the navy and the air force combined. And the other surprising thing was that most state military police apparatus or leadership would not support a coup attempt by Bolsonaro. Everyone thought that he had all of the police in the palm of his hand, and it doesn’t look like it. And one of the police apparatus that is most anti-Bolsonaro right now is Rio de Janeiro state military police, which are the most corrupt and worst police organization in Brazil. So he can’t even hold on to his own, and he’s from Rio, his family has connections in the militias, which are all off-duty police officers. So it looks like there’s some kind of internal organized crime struggle going on inside the real military police which isn’t favoring Bolsonaro right now, either. So that was just interesting to see.

Now with the media, I don’t normally recommend or support or anything Reporters Without Borders, it has a reputation of being a CIA front group. Nevertheless, they issued a report about five years ago called “The Land of Thirty Berlusconis” about Brazil’s media, and the report was actually pretty good. Basically, you have a small number of very powerful elite families who control all of the mainstream media in Brazil.

Globo, for example, its television system was built during the military dictatorship in partnership with Time Warner Corporation specifically as a means of social control over the population. So they didn’t just install all of these transmission towers all around Brazil and gave the license to Globo; they then bought back all of the shares: they helped Globo buy back all of the shares from Time Warner two years later by giving them billions of dollars in advertising on their network. And so this network has always been very pro-military. They only started calling the 1964 coup d’etat a coup in 2014. Before that, they’d always call it a “democratic revolution,” and this is the third or fourth-largest open-air TV network in the world. So even they have turned on Bolsonaro.

These traditional media groups like Globo, Folha de São Paulo, O Estado de São Paulo [Estadão] all created the conditions for Bolsonaro to rise to power through years and years of slander and character assassination of leftists, especially Lula, but also Dilma Rousseff, PT President Gleisi Hoffmann, who went to Nicolás Maduro’s last inauguration. They’ve [traditional media groups] been attacking people like that almost every day. And so finally, when this monster spins out of control, their final result wasn’t someone like Bolsonaro; they were looking for, as they said in Brazil, the kind of fascist that eats with a knife and a fork. They didn’t want this out-of-control monster like Bolsonaro in power. So now, they’ve backed off their support for Bolsonaro. They’re ostensibly supporting Lula, but they’re already setting the groundwork to destabilize his government to guarantee that the right-wing maintains control of the macroeconomics, basically.

This is very interesting, what you are saying. You’re giving me another perspective of Brazil, I mean the elections. Let’s jump to the last question. It is basically connected to how international developments might impact the electoral results in Brazil. But maybe also the counter-analysis might also be of help, I mean how a possible victory of Lula might impact the region, at least Latin America?

I think that there’s this kind of false “spectrum war” going on against the Latin American left. So you get people from all sides of the spectrum attacking Nicolás Maduro. You have these people attacking Nicolás Maduro from the so-called left, but you’re like, what’s their popular connections and left? Nothing. Sometimes, it’s, like, Trotskyist academics from the United States. And you have the same thing happening against Lula the entire time.

One thing that’s been taken out of context is a few comments he’s made, unfortunately, about how he believes that there should be an alternation of power in Venezuela and Nicaragua. These comments are always taken out of context, because his main point, whenever he’s asked about these countries, is that the people of those countries should solve their own problems. It’s not [his] position to suggest what they should or shouldn’t do, [his] personal opinion is this.

If you look back at the history of the relations between the Workers’ Party governments and the rest of the Latin American left, including Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, all of this so-called “axis of evil” of the United States, they always had very good relations.

I’d like to highlight the time that Lula and Hugo Chávez defeated the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) together. That was important. Now, one of the differences between Venezuela and Brazil, obviously, is that the military in Brazil really dislikes the left; they’ve never been able to do political formation of the military or something, so I think that’s a very strong thing in Venezuela’s favor.

In general, I think Lula’s victory would be good for sovereignty of peoples in Latin America, especially in South America, and it would be a move forward for the continent in general, just because it’s such a big country; it has such a big economic influence on the rest, on international events.

In fact, in Brazil, do you think that might happen? I know that Brazil is like a self-centered country that is sometimes…

The language isolates it. Even though we have these neighbors everywhere, most Brazilians don’t understand Spanish, so it’s unfortunate. But one thing that’s interesting is that nobody in Brazil got on board with, nobody is getting on board with the new Cold War. If you look at Russia and China, even Bolsonaro’s supporters, not Bolsnaro himself, but his people behind the scenes in the Brazilian State Department are refusing to give any kind of lip service to the United States on China and Russia, and that will continue under Lula.

When Bush asked Lula for Brazil to join the Iraq War, he [Lula] said, “Our war is against poverty, it’s against hunger. We’re not getting involved in other people’s wars.” So I think the US government has been trying to put the Bolsonaro administration against Venezuela, we know that. So it’ll be good for Venezuela if Bolsonaro’s out. He’s been doing joint military operations with the US military in Brazil near the Venezuelan border as a kind of intimidation tactic; that will end if Lula was elected. I mean, he’s not going to have a really far left-wing government because of all of the compromises he’s had to make to get the endorsement of different people in the bourgeois elite, but it will be geopolitically much better for Latin America in terms of sovereignty of nations to have him in power than to have someone who is just the most sycophantic Brazilian leader in history to the United States. He, Jair Bolsonaro, even visited CIA headquarters after he was elected. The first time a Brazilian president’s ever done that.

It’s crazy. Let me ask you one final question: what about lawfare? Do you think that they will retry those things [if] Lula wins?

Those cases against Lula cannot be retried anymore. I mean, when the media said that it was thrown out on a technicality, they didn’t follow through. The only reason they could call it a technicality is because the Supreme Court ruled, but these cases had been illegally forum shopped [assigned] to a sympathetic judge in a jurisdiction that didn’t have any authority to act on those charges, which detailed crimes that were committed in a different state. So they recommended—first of all, they said all of the evidence had to be discarded. There wasn’t much evidence to begin with, it was just a few coerced plea bargain testimonies, but they had to be discarded.

If prosecutors wanted to try and recharge Lula for any of those crimes, that had to happen in Brasília Federal District courts. What happened is that on all of the charges, public prosecutors attempted to reinitiate the charges in Brasília, and in every case, they were immediately thrown out for not having any material evidence, because none of these charges ever had material evidence behind them. So there’s no way he could be tried for any of those frivolous 26 charges that the United States Department of Justice backed, that the Operation Car Wash team levied against Lula. That’s done with. They’d have to invent something else.

But I think that people are tired of this lawfare now; I don’t think they’d be able to get anything to stick on him at this point. Especially since the first time they tried to throw out Lula with lawfare over this scandal called the Mensalão, which was equally ridiculous and without any kind of evidence, [same] as Operation Car Wash. From that moment forwards, the Workers’ Party has been extra careful about making sure they don’t do anything illegal because they know they’re under, like, heavy scrutiny the entire time. They have double or triple the level of scrutiny of any other political party. I’m not saying there’s no corruption with any Workers’ Party official, but they’re much more careful about it than the other parties.

That’s why after years and years of investigation, the best that Operation Car Wash could come up with was one coerced plea bargain testimony of an imprisoned corrupt businessman who got millions of dollars in asset retention and an 85% sentence reduction in exchange for reading off the script to implicate Lula; he changed his story three times before they let him out of jail. That was the only thing they did. They threw out [Judge] Sergio Moro, who presided over the investigation—his own investigation. He rejected 100, over 100 defense witnesses of Lula’s. I mean, if you look into those cases, it’s such a ridiculous travesty of justice. I don’t think they’re gonna try that again; they might, but I don’t think it will stick.

I think the big problem is that he’s [Lula] gonna have to put—it’s going to be like 2003, 2004 all over again, when he was stuck in these IMF conditionality agreements from his predecessor, and he couldn’t increase funding on education and health and sanitation until he paid back the IMF loan early. So the first year or two is going to be tough, that’s my take. If he’s elected, of course.

It is good to know that, and it was very good to talk to you. Do you feel that overconfidence among Lula supporters is going to have an effect?

I think people might have been a little bit overconfident in the first round, because the media made it look like he was going to win in the first round even though that was based on a misinterpretation of polling numbers that didn’t take into account the margin of error. I mean, the big pulse at 50%, two-point margin of error either way. So we ended up with 58.4%: within the margin of error. I mean, the odds were that he wasn’t going to win in the first round, and the media made it look like he was. So that caused some overconfidence.

I think people are really worried now, and I think turnout among the poor and working classes can be higher in the second round than it was in the first round.

That’s good to know. Exactly, that will help mobilization of people, if they get rid of that overconfidence.

Thank you Brian, I really enjoyed talking to you finally, and a lot of respect for your work!


You guys too, I’m a fan of your work!



Orinoco Tribune special by staff

https://orinocotribune.com/telesurs-bri ... t-round-2/

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Rio de Janeiro: City of Militias, Gospel and Electoral Disputes
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on OCTOBER 18, 2022
Marco Teruggi

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Lula visited the Complexo do Alemão favela. . Image: EFE

“I am the only candidate who has the courage to enter a favela without a security vest”, said Lula.


Rio de Janeiro is impressive. Few metropolises were founded on such beautiful landscapes. There are the green hills that border the sea, the Corcovado Christ on the top, the streets that lead to the beaches of Copacabana, the Selarón stairway with colorful ceramics in the Lapa neighborhood. During the nights of this month of October, the big tropical moon can be seen over the Botafogo inlet at the foot of the Sugar Loaf, and the samba schools, such as Estácio de Sá, prepare for the upcoming carnivals: they play, dance, compete internally, invoke saints from many skies until the early hours of the morning.

The postcards of the south zone or the center of the old Brazilian capital are however a surface, the illuminated edge of an unequal and violent city. It can be seen in the number of people surviving in the streets; in a geography where in any corner a favela emerges; in the kilometers of slums and broken landscapes when taking a train to the west of the city; or by the marked territorial control of armed organizations, both narcos and so-called militias, which, among so many crimes, have murdered the young black feminist Marielle Franco in 2018.

“Most of the popular territories are dominated by militias, militarized groups, Pentecostal churches have hegemony, an important role of daily dialogue in people’s lives, there is a great emptying of social relations coming from the State, popular councils, institutions not only of social participation, but of social agenda, people have no place of public debate, of meeting, those places are occupied in the territories by militias, drug trafficking or the church”, explains Tainá de Paula, councilwoman for the Workers’ Party (PT).

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De Paula introduces herself as “a black woman from a favela, mother of a girl, survivor of the racist logics of Rio de Janeiro”, a state where 53% of the population is black. She is at a campaign table with flags, flyers, she is photographed making the L of Lula with her hand with those who pass by and support the former president. One fact worries her: “there is a very shocking map, comparing Bolsonaro’s vote in Rio with the map of occupation of the militias, it is 90% overlap.”

The vigilante militias

The electoral result gave the victory to Jair Bolsonaro in the state of Rio with 51.09% against 40.68% for Lula da Silva, and his candidate for governor, Cláudio Castro, reached 58.67%. The vote in the state of more than 16 million inhabitants was one of those that marked the map of southeastern Brazil favorable to the current president. In the city, Bolsonaro won in nine of the ten areas controlled by militias.

“The militias originally arose from extermination groups that operated from institutional police and firefighters who organized themselves after work, many with the perspective of supplementing income and bringing a false idea of security for territories without institutional police coverage,” explains De Paula. The militias grew and mutated from those 1970s to the present day: they went from focusing on armed security, to controlling services, charging to carry out activities, “they occupied the whole territory, almost a substitution of what the State should be.”

“More recently there was a closer relationship between the militias and drug trafficking, they began to join together and create what is called narco-militia, where there is a sealed agreement between drug distribution, protection of traffickers and territorial control, it is a junction that in my opinion and that of several scholars is out of control, because it is not known where one faction begins and where another ends”, explains the PT councilwoman, who places the presence or control of militias in 60% of the city.

“The political cadres campaigning for Bolsonaro are figures linked to these groups, they work allied to the militias, they operate in territories where most people cannot operate, how do they manage to enter those territories occupied by the militias?”. Bolsonaro “has no idea what the people of Rio are like because his life is linked to the militias that killed Marielle,” Lula himself said days ago.

The evangelical factor

Lula made this statement at the event held in the Complexo do Alemão favela, in the northern zone of Rio de Janeiro. It was the first act in the campaign in a favela of the city, at the tip of the morro, with half-finished houses, stairs to always higher, batucadas, euphoria for the presence of the former president sold in caps, towels, T-shirts and flags. “I am the only candidate for president who has the courage to enter a favela, without a security vest,” Lula told Bolsonaro a day later, on Sunday, during the debate between the two.

“Voting for Lula is not a sin” was one of the phrases heard from that stage of the Complexo do Alemão where Lula was accompanied, among others, by Wesley Teixeira, who heads a sector of evangelicalism that supports him. “I perceive in my bases a very strong presence of evangelicals, with a lot of difficulty to discuss without religion appearing as a rule, as a parameter. Lula is not an evangelical, and the fact that he is not an evangelical makes him impious, worldly, speaking in Christian terms, a difficulty for part of that sector that aligns and connects with that worldview to vote for him”, explains De Paula.

“It is a very difficult vote to turn around because it starts from the subjectivity of faith, not from a materiality of a theory, faith is the center of life and worldview. It is very important to modulate a speech to try to turn around some votes, but we have to focus primarily on those who are disenchanted with politics, they abstained, there is a very large presence of abstention in all cities and surveys show that here it can reach 20%, we have to focus on these people, they are disenchanted, but it is possible to sensitize them with what we are living, with hunger, misery”.

There are less than two weeks left in the campaign. Lula leads in the polls, and according to Atlas, the pollster that came close to predicting the result in the first round, the PT leader has 52.4% of valid votes against 47.6% for Bolsonaro. “I have the strong impression that we will win, but we will not have won Brazil. Brazil will be divided. What will be the size of our wisdom in approaching the different sectors, in building bridges, only time will tell”, concludes De Paula before continuing with the vertigo of the campaign.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2022/10/ ... -disputes/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Brazil

Post by blindpig » Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:25 pm

Bolsonaro and sexual exploitation of adolescents: A note by the PT
By BRIAN MIER October 19, 2022

The Women’s Secretariat of Brazil’s Workers Party (PT) issues letter of repudiation on President Jair Bolsonaro’s comments about an alleged encounter with child prostitutes.

The Workers’ Party repudiates and denounces the statements on pedophilia and the sexual exploitation of teenagers by Jair Bolsonaro, during an interview this week. It is unbelievable that a President of the Republic could go to the outskirts of town, meet underage girls, assume that they are at his service, say that “there was chemistry” between them and ask to enter their house.

The President is showing the nation that he is nothing more than an idler at the service of xenophobia, pedophilia and child sexual exploitation. In Jair Bolsonaro’s mind, it is unimaginable that young Venezuelans would “dress up” simply because they are young. In Bolsonaro’s mind, underage girls in a slum can only “dress up” to satisfy his and/or other men’s desires. In Bolsonaro’s mind, underage girls are likely to be approached by adult men with pedophile intentions.

The women of the PT and all over the country watched, scandalized and outraged, at this confession about underage girls in which he said “there was chemistry” between an adult man and 14 and 15 year old girls. The president has overstepped all barriers and is dragging the entire country towards complete barbarism. The naturalization of violence against women is a hallmark of this sexist president, who uses the social vulnerability and territorial origin of women to trivialize misogyny, xenophobia, pedophilia and child sexual exploitation in the public opinion. A president who needs to shout on stage how “erect” he is demonstrates to the country that, in order to self-affirm his masculinity fetish he is capable of overstepping all laws and civilizatory standards.

This is definitely not the president Brazil wants. This is not the president Brazil needs. The Workers Party will trigger all appropriate legal measures in all possible venues, so that absurdity and barbarism are not trivialized, “lost” or buried in bureaucratic processes.

We cry out to civil society for the defense of women and girls throughout the country. We demand the reestablishment of civilizatory standards. We demand that the crimes be punished and that the highest office of the Republic is once again honored and dignified with the respect, deference and liturgy that the office demands – in the name of all Brazilian women who exist today and for all women who will be born in the future.

PT National Executive

PT National Women’s Secretariat

PT/DF Women’s Secretariat

https://www.brasilwire.com/bolsonaro-an ... by-the-pt/

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BOLSONARO RECEIVES SUPPORT FROM GUAIDÓ'S ENVOY FOR OFFENSE AGAINST VENEZUELANS IN BRASILIA
Oct 19, 2022 , 2:24 p.m.

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President Jair Bolsonaro during an interview with the Paparazzo Rubro-Negro podcast insinuated that young Venezuelan women living on the outskirts of Brasilia engage in prostitution. The comment caused a stir to the point that the first lady, Michelle Bolsonaro, and Damares Alves (PL), former minister and senator-elect for the Federal District, went out to try to fix the embarrassment.

How they did it? The first lady and the senator went to São Sebastião to meet with the leaders of the Venezuelan immigrant community, not to apologize, but to demand the silence of the women regarding the comment by the still Brazilian president.

In the meeting, which lasted more than five hours and took place on Monday, October 17, in the house of a parish priest in Lago Sul, the community leaders communicated their "commitment not to speak anything" to Sister Rosita Milesi, who directs the Institute of Migration and Human Rights, an entity that works to help Venezuelan migrants and refugees in the capital.

However, those who were offended did not participate in the meeting because they refused. And the community leaders gave in after the intermediation of the representative of the fake government of Juan Guaidó in Brasilia, María Teresa Belandria. Now, what kind of incidence does a fictitious official have to do damage control in a situation that could have effects on the course of the presidential campaign in Brazil?

Bolsonaro, whose custom is not to retract, apologized for his controversial statements about a group of Venezuelan girls, assuring that his words about adolescents were taken out of context.

For Venezuela, the remarkable thing about the situation is not the usual attitude of Bolsonaro, nor that his wife has gone out to try to fix the situation with an attitude that is not surprising, but the performance of the Guaidó file trying to wash one's face of those who supported the "interim" during his false mandate. The logical thing was that he defended his compatriots, not those who he offended them.

https://misionverdad.com/bolsonaro-reci ... n-brasilia

Google Translator

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Map shows the alliance between Bolsonaro and environmental crime in the Amazon
It is no coincidence that regions with the highest rates of deforestation in the last four years had a majority vote for Bolsonaro

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October 20, 2022 by Brasil de Fato

The support for environmental devastation has earned votes for president Jair Bolsonaro, who is running for re-election on the ticket of the Liberal Party (PL). These votes have appeared above all in the regions that have deforested the Amazon the most, including the so-called arc of deforestation, which runs from Acre to Maranhão. This is proven by a comparison between an electoral map of the first round of voting in 2022 and the points of greatest environmental pressure, elaborated by Brasil de Fato.

The crossing of the data takes into account the deforestation alerts accounted for by the “Deter” system of the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) throughout the Bolsonaro government. These are municipalities where the economy is driven by illegal deforestation, land grabbing, and land invasion, with a predominance of cattle ranching, soybeans, and mining in protected areas.

The map was prepared by forest engineer Newton Monteiro, who is getting a Master’s degree in Geodetic Sciences at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), and is available in its original version here. The images show where there were deforestation alerts between 2019 and 2022 and the regions where these alerts cover larger areas, above 150 thousand km².

Environmental crime takes over politics
With 40 years of activity in the environmental area, the founding partner of the Socio-environmental Institute (ISA), Márcio Santilli, guarantees that the overlap between Bolsonarism and environmental crime is not by chance. According to him, those who commit environmental crimes profited more during the mandate of the current president and increased their investment in politicians who support the candidacy of Bolsonaro.

“There is no doubt that this predatory economy is considerably more capitalized than it was four years ago. We are talking about large enterprises that mobilize state-of-the-art equipment, in addition to political corruption schemes, of giving money to mayors, deputies, and senators who defend predation as an economic option,” Santilli points out.

The vote in the new areas of environmental devastation
One of the key areas is the region called Amacro (an acronym for Amazonas, Acre and Rondônia, since it covers parts of the three states), one of the new environmental pressure zones consolidated under the Bolsonaro government. 20% of deforestation in the Amazon between 2020 and 2021 took place in this region.

On the map, another pole of environmental devastation with prevalence of votes for Bolsonaro is in the state of Pará in the municipalities of Itaituba (57.7% of votes for Bolsonaro), Altamira (57.7%) and São Félix do Xingu (63%), which appear monthly among the most deforested in the country.

In the same region is the town of Novo Progresso of Pará wherein 79.6% of the valid votes went to Bolsonaro and was where the so-called “day of fire” in 2019, when ranchers purposely set fire to a large portion of the forest. Protected areas such as the Kayapó Indigenous Land and the Jamanxin National Forest are targets of continuous illegalities committed by loggers, gold miners, and cattle ranchers.

“Environmental crime finances electoral corruption”
In Mato Grosso, all ten municipalities that lead the state deforestation ranking gave a majority of votes to Bolsonaro. In six of them the vote for Bolsonaro exceeded 70%: Colniza, Nova Bandeirantes, Aripuanã, Querência, Marcelândia and Juara.

In Roraima, cities that have experienced an explosion of environmental crimes elected Bolsonaro with more than 60% of the votes, among them Caroebe, Rorainópolis, and Caracaraí. The culprits are soy, logging, and cattle ranching. In the first year of Bolsonaro’s mandate, the loss of vegetation cover more than tripled in the state, according to data from Inpe.

For the ISA founder, the election result expresses majority support for Bolsonaro in the parts of the Amazon with the highest level of attacks on the environment. “It is not a hegemony that we can generalize for the entire Amazon. But [we see that] environmental crime finances electoral corruption,” he summarizes.

This article was written by Murilo Pajolla in Portuguese and published at Brasil de Fato.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2022/10/20/ ... he-amazon/

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Lula Positive on Victory in Runoff Election

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Lula on a walk of hope in São Gonçalo, Rio de Janeiro. Oct. 20, 2022. | Photo: Twitter/@LulaOficial

Published 20 October 2022

The former president of Brazil, Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, deemed the comeback of the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, unlikely.

The Workers' Party (PT) leader's comments came in the wake of poll results showing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro making slow progress in the race for the presidency.

"We are going to win the elections, it seems impossible to me that [Bolsonaro] will cut the difference in a week, despite the crazy things he does, the lies he tells," said Lula at a press conference in Rio de Janeiro.

On the occasion, the leftist candidate criticized the disinformation spread on social networks through false profiles. Bolsonaro has "a powerful machine for telling lies." It is "very difficult to compete against robots," Lula said.

Lula made it a priority for the remaining days until the October 30 runoff to reduce the number of abstentions.


The electorate with which Lula has a clear advantage is that of the poorest, who tend to vote the least.

According to the most recent survey by the Datafolha institute, Lula has 52 percent of total voting intentions, while Bolsonaro has 48 percent, up one point from last week's poll.

Also yesterday a Quaest poll was released in which Lula has 47 percent of the total vote intentions with 42 percent for Bolsonaro showing as well a one-point advance.


However, Lula remains the favorite in all polls ahead of the Brazilian runoff election, to be held in ten days, on October 30.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Lul ... -0015.html
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Re: Brazil

Post by blindpig » Mon Oct 24, 2022 1:55 pm

Brazil Fights ‘Spiritual War Against Communism’
OCTOBER 24, 2022

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Jair and Michelle Bolsonaro. Photo: Kawsachun News.

Political debate in Brazil is being reduced to “Christians” vs “Communists” by Jair Bolsonaro’s campaign, with no room for discussion of proposals for government policy, projects and programs.

The campaign has resorted to exploiting religious voters and their faith for electoral purposes, with polls indicating that he’s been loosing key support from Christians in general and evangelicals specifically.

As per the incumbent’s campaign script, Lula’s “communist” government would force children to use unisex restrooms, liberalize abortion and drugs, impose “gender ideology” and threaten the integrity of families.

But according to Michelle Bolsonaro, the wife of Jair, Brazil is in the midst of a spiritual war in which religious freedom is at risk and the ideology of good, embodied by her husband, must overcome that of evil, which she considers to be the Workers’ Party (PT), as Brazil is the final barrier against the advance of communism.

She made her latest remarks on Friday at a Mulheres com Bolsonaro (Women with Bolsonaro) campaign event with a predominantly evangelical audience of women in Vitória’s airport, alongside controversial former minister of women and current senator-elect, Damares Alves.

After being kept away from the public for the last four years, the first lady is now being deployed to sell her husband to predominantly female audiences and she’s been campaigning in overdrive. Polls show that Bolsonaro is at a disadvantage among women.

Both Michelle and Damares have also been used for damage control since Bolsonaro said he “felt chemistry” between himself and 14-year-old Venezuelan girls, in a now viral podcast interview which aired about a week ago.

In Friday’s Vitória speech, Michelle warned of the threat of “communism” against the exercise of religious freedom in the country:

This government has been fighting for the family, for the country, for our freedom of expression and our religious freedom, which yes, is being compromised by communism. We are seeing everything that is happening, and it is very easy to choose sides. Just don’t see who doesn’t want to see. You just don’t see those who are spiritually blind.

In Michelle’s terms, the electoral race is between “Christians” and “Communists” and thus represents, for Christians, a “spiritual war” with the aim of stopping “communism”:

Our purpose as Christians is to gather, to pray, to intercede, to talk, to help, to guide those who still do not understand the spiritual war that we are going through in Brazil. […] And if God doesn’t have mercy on our nation, if the people don’t wake up, we won’t have anywhere to go, because Brazil is the last barrier to communism.

Echoing right-wing media pundits and Bolsonarista candidates, Michelle warned that communism, “only comes to steal, kill and destroy,” but says the country will resist, “because the majority of our nation is Christian.”

She also called her husband “imperfect”, telling the audience to look beyond his mistakes: “I ask that you do not look to the candidate, but to the agendas he defends: the ideology of good versus evil, so that we can dispel this dark party from our nation at once.”

Bolsonaro’s campaign hopes that it can add votes through spreading fear and promoting political intolerance, despite that Lula has never run or governed as a communist. Lula was in fact criticized for conceding to right-wing interests and for governing in a manner that was out of line with his own leftist party and the movements and sectors which put him in power.

A key element of Bolsonaro’s campaign strategy, is the repeated attempt to link Lula to President of Nicaragua Daniel Ortega and other socialist leaders (which Bolsonaro claims are all friends from the São Paulo Forum) and falsely accusing the Sandinista government of closing churches, persecuting religious leaders and attacking religious freedom—despite the fact that Presidents Daniel Ortega and Nicolás Maduro frequently promote Christianity from their positions of power.

Lula, himself a Christian, has also zeroed in on Christian votes and has been happily receiving endorsements from faith leaders who’ve denounced Bolsonarismo’s bigotry, intolerance and his manipulation of the faithful.

Paradoxically, Michelle Bolsonaro herself has expressed religious intolerance against religions of African origin, to the tune of the intolerance expressed by Bolivia’s ex-dictator Jeanine Añez, who as senator insulted indigenous traditions in Bolivia.

Michelle and Jair both met with Añez’s daughter, Carolina, who this week thanked the first couple for their steadfast support of her jailed mother.

(KawsachunNews)

https://orinocotribune.com/brazil-fight ... communism/

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Far-right former deputy opens fire and throws grenade at police officers serving arrest warrant
Video shows Bolsonaro supporter Roberto Jefferson monitoring police officers by security camera and confirming he shot at them

October 23, 2022 by Brasil de Fato

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Former deputy Roberto Jefferson. Photo: Twitter

Former federal deputy Roberto Jefferson of the Brazilian Labor Party (PTB) threw a grenade and shot at Federal Police agents who went to his house this Sunday October 23. The officers went to serve an arrest warrant against the former congressman at the request of the Federal Supreme Court (STF). Two police officers were injured by shrapnel from the grenade and were taken to the emergency room. According to the Federal Police, they received medical attention and have since been released.

According to the Federal Police, by Sunday evening, Jefferson surrendered and was taken to the Federal Police Station. Before the former congressman turned himself in, the defeated PTB presidential candidate, Father Kelmon, handed weapons that were in Roberto Jefferson’s possession to the police.

In a video recorded by the former deputy inside his home, Jefferson is seen monitoring security cameras that show the police officers. He says: “I’m not turning myself in because I think it’s absurd. Enough is enough, I’m tired of being a victim of arbitrariness and abuse. Unfortunately I’m going to face them.”

According to the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper, Jefferson fired more than 20 rifle shots and threw two grenades at federal police officers.

In another video made by the former deputy, the Federal Police car appears on the security cameras. The vehicle has its glass shattered, and an agent appears running away.

“They shot at me and I shot at them. I am inside the house, but they are surrounding me. It’s going to get worse, but I won’t give in,” says the deputy in the recording. He also criticizes Minister Alexandre de Morais, whom he accuses of being authoritarian.

A tow truck removed the Federal Police car that Jefferson attacked and there were bullet marks on the windshield.

The case
The Federal Police operation comes one day after Jefferson insulted Minister Cármen Lúcia of the Federal Supreme Court. He compared her to “prostitutes”, “burglars” and “sluts” in a video posted on the social networks of his daughter Cristiane Brasil also of PTB.

The former deputy has been under house arrest since January of this year, when he left the prison for health reasons. In August of last year, his arrest was decreed after he spread threats against the country’s institutions of justice.

In response to his video attacking Cármen Lúcia, the Brazilian Association of Jurists for Democracy (ABJD) presented to Minister Alexandre de Moraes a request to revoke Roberto Jefferson’s house arrest.

In the video, the former deputy says he is “indignant, I went to review the vote of the Blair witch, of Cármen ‘Lucifer’, in the previous censorship of Jovem Pan, I looked again, I can’t believe it? [She] really reminds me of those prostitutes, those tramps, the ones who are broken into, right? Who turn to the guy and say ‘Oh, honey, in the ass? I’ve never given the ass, it’s the first time. She did it for the first time, she opened the unconstitutionality for the first time. She says it like this, ‘prior censorship is unconstitutional, it is against the Supreme Court precedent, but it is only this time, honey… Blair Witch, she is rotten inside and hideous outside, she is a witch, a witch… If you put a pointy hat and a broomstick in her hand, she’ll fly… God save me from this woman who is in this cesspool that is the Superior Electoral Court,” Roberto Jefferson said.

The former deputy is referring to the decision of Minister Cármen Lúcia, in the trial of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which forced the removal of fake news from the radio station, TV, and internet platforms Jovem Pan. With her vote, the court had a majority for the decision that required the station to give former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) a right of reply for false or distorted statements made by commentators on the channel.

Alexandre de Moraes, who had already spoken out on social networks criticizing Jefferson’s “sexist and misogynist aggression”, ordered the Federal Police to go to the deputy’s house this Sunday morning October 23.

This is based on articles written in Portuguese and published on Brasil de Fato.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2022/10/23/ ... t-warrant/

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Lula rejects aggressiveness of ex-Bolnarista deputy

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Lula da Silva indicated that Bolsonaro "managed to create in the country a portion of Brazilian society that is furious, hateful, lying and spreading fake news all day." | Photo: Regional Voice
Published October 23, 2022 (13 hours 54 minutes ago)

"We all have to have a minimum of common sense in our democratic coexistence," said the PT leader.

The candidate for the presidency of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, rejected this Sunday the aggression of former Bolsonaro deputy for Rio de Janerio Roberto Jefferson against the Federal Police and related it to a climate of hatred generated by the current far-right president of the nation. South American, Jair Bolsonaro.

"Common sense is needed in democratic coexistence", warned the leader of the Brazilian Workers' Party, while he stressed in reference to Roberto Jefferson that "I don't know what he said, I don't know if he is doing a concert or what he is talking about . What I do know is that it is not appropriate behavior.”

"We all have to have a minimum of common sense in our democratic coexistence, we cannot pretend to annihilate those who do not agree with you," Lula da Silva pointed out about the attitude of the former deputy, who offended Minister Carmen Lucía Antunes and resisted. to his arrest, issued by the minister of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), Alexandre de Moraes.


The former parliamentarian fired at the Brazilian agents in charge of carrying out the arrest warrant against him issued by Alexandre de Moraes, and who proceeded to arrest him in the city of Comendador Levy Gasparian, state of Rio de Janeiro.

"We contested so many elections, people never saw an aberration like that, an offense like that, the stupidity that that citizen, my adversary, established in the country," Lula acknowledged.

Similarly, he indicated that Bolsonaro “managed to create in the country a portion of Brazilian society that is furious, hateful, lying and spreading fake news all day.”

Other Brazilian political figures repudiated Jefferson's aggression against Judge Carmen Lucía Antunes. Among them was the former presidential candidate and third best vote during the first round, Simone Tebet, representative of the Brazilian Democratic Movement.

The senator also questioned this Saturday the position of the former Bolsonarist deputy and affirmed that the women's vote will influence Lula's victory in the ballot, scheduled for October 30.

https://www.telesurtv.net/news/lula-afi ... -0016.html

Google Translator

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Bolsonaro’s Secret Budget: “The World’s Biggest Corruption Scheme”
By BRASILWIRE
October 23, 2022

The scale of Bolsonaro’s so-called Secret Budget (Orcamento Secreto) bribery scheme is enormous, dwarfing previous corruption scandals that have hit Brazilian governments in recent decades. Senator Simone Tebet warns that “we may be facing the world’s biggest corruption scheme” and what began as a scheme to protect Bolsonaro from impeachment, is now central to a full scale attempt buy congress, and the 2022 presidential election. This is while his campaign continues to use the legacy propaganda of US-orchestrated operation Lava Jato, and its US-trained protagonists Sergio Moro and Deltan Dallagnol, to smear his opponent Lula as corrupt.

By Tiago Pereira for Rede Brasil Atual

The so-called Secret Budget is leaving a trail of destruction in sensitive areas of the Brazilian state, such as health and education, which are already weakened due to a gradual loss of resources as a consequence of the spending cap. Resources that would be for the public sector, for instance, were trasnferred to serve the appetite for amendments (pork payments, effectively bribes) of president Jair Bolsonaro’s base in Congress. In the most recent case, the Bolsonaro government blocked more than 2.4 billion reais (about 460.2 million dollars) in financial resources that would go to the Minister of Education. The money goes to parliamentarians allied with Bolsonaro to spend as they wish, in yet another maneuver of the Secret Budget.

The maneuver is the result of a weak government, which needed Congress to not investigate its crimes of responsibility that could lead to an impeachment. Thus, the Executive power started to subordinate a big part of the Union Budget to the president of the Chamber of Deputies Arthur Lira (Progressive Party, Alagoas state). Lira coordinates the scheme and did not consider 140 impeachment processes against Brazil’s current president. Through this shady deal that hurts republican principles, Lira received 492 million reais this year alone in amendments to use in his electoral stronghold.

Ignoring technical criteria, these resources are applied according to the interests of parliamentarians who received the so-called “rapporteur’s amendments”. It is possible to know how much each parliamentarian received. However, there is no transparency, and it is not possible to know for sure how the money was spent.

“The world’s biggest corruption scheme”

According to senator Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement, Mato Grosso state), “we may be facing the world’s biggest corruption scheme”. In a recent interview with Flow Podcast, the then-presidential candidate – who declared support for former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second round – explained how the scheme works.

She mentioned the case of the town of Pedreira, in Maranhão state, revealed by the Brazilian magazine piauí. This town has 39,000 residents. In order to justify the amendments received via Secret Budget, the city hall reported that it performed more than 540,000 tooth extractions.

“It means to extract 14 teeth of each resident, including newborns, who do not have any tooth”.

The same article shows another countryside town in Maranhão state that performed more HIV/Aids tests than the city of São Paulo, with more than 12 million residents.

“Therefore, I may be speaking about a false invoice where it is said ‘I made this and that, pay me’. I’m not talking about [people] taking 10% [of the payment, that is, over-invoicing]. I’m talking about a false invoice from head to toe. Maybe the money went from Brasília to the town and then ended up in someone’s pocket. It doesn’t make sense that a small town in Maranhão state received the largest resources from this budget”, Simone criticized.

To get an idea of the influence of budget amendments in Brazil, 69% of the electorate in Maranhão state voted for Lula. They elected former governor Flávio Dino (Brazilian Socialist Party) with 62% of the votes and, also, the candidate he was supporting, Carlos Brandão (Brazilian Socialist Party), with 51%. On the other hand, of all the 18 federal deputies elected in that state, 12 come from political parties that support Bolsonaro in the second turn. The four most-voted federal deputies are from Bolsonaro’s own Liberal Party (2) and Brazil Union (2).

The “winners”

The Secret Budget explains part of the reasons why Brazilians voted for Lula, but gave to Bolsonaro the largest caucus in the Chamber of Deputies.

Besides the corruption suspicions and deviation from purpose in the use of resources, the Secret Budget is one of the factors that contributed to the growth in the number of deputies from the so-called “Centrão”, formed by parties such as the Liberal Party, Progressive Party, and Republicans. The Liberal Party, for instance, got 33 seats in the 2018 elections. With the period of 30 days in which elected politicians can change from one political party to another, known in Brazil as “janela partidária”, Bolsonaro’s party jumped to 76 elected federal deputies before this year’s elections. On October 2, the Liberal Party elected 99 federal deputies to the next legislature.

Bolsonaro’s 51 million votes in the first round do not explain, alone, the growth of his party’s caucus. If so, the Workers’ Party, which elected 68 federal deputies, should have had more than 100 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. That’s because former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva got more than 57 million votes, 6 million more than Bolsonaro. Thus, one of the causes of the difference in the number of seats between the two parties is the Secret Budget, which served to strengthen candidacies from the president’s allies, and not from the opposition.

A survey by the Brazilian newspaper O Globo shows that only one candidate of the 13 who received 100 million reais each from the Secret Budget this year was not reelected. Another ten had more expressive votes now than in the last elections. Arthur Lira, for instance, who received 492 million reais in amendments. He jumped from 143,858 votes in 2018 to almost 220,000 votes in this year’s elections, a 52.55% increase in total votes.

“How do you feel finding out that Arthur Lira got half a billion Reais in amendments from the Secret Budget?”, social scientist Leonardo Rossato asked. “There is no debate of ideas that can compete with this,” he stressed. Thus, the Secret Budget destroys any principle of equity between the actors contesting the elections.

Struggle

The debate over whether to revoke or maintain the Secret Budget is expected to be one of the main battles in Congress next year. In the event of Bolsonaro’s victory, little will change, with parliamentarians advancing on ever-larger slices of Union funds. On the other hand, former President Lula promises to end the scheme, returning for the federal government the prerogative of deciding on the allocation of federal resources. He bets on talking with congressional leaders to put an end to the rapporteur’s amendments.

Another possibility is to bury the Secret Budget through the Federal Supreme Court. Minister Rosa Weber, who assumed the presidency of the Court last month, is the rapporteur of a process that questions the legality of the amendments. The issue will probably be put to vote after the second round of elections.

However, leaders of the Centrão, such as Arthur Lira, say that if the Supreme Court or the next president ends the Secret Budget, the group’s parliamentarians and its allies would approve in the Chamber of Deputies a Proposal for Amendment to the Constitution (known in Brazil as PEC) making the scheme official. Lira also threats to put the PEC to vote immediately after the second turn of the elections.

* Translated by Ana Paula Rocha.

https://www.brasilwire.com/bolsonaros-s ... on-scheme/
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Re: Brazil

Post by blindpig » Thu Oct 27, 2022 1:32 pm

Lula Has 53% Of Valid Votes - Ipespe Poll

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All major polls show former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the presidential race. Oct. 25, 2022. | Photo: Twitter/@marioadolfo

Published 25 October 2022

Candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains the favorite for the October 30 presidential runoff election.

The new Ipespe poll showed 53 percent of valid votes (excluding blank, null, undecided) for the leader of the Workers' Party (PT), while 47 percent for incumbent Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL).

Both register one point more since the institute's last poll; Lula has 50 percent in total votes, while Bolsonaro has 44 percent.

Blank and null votes accounted for 4 percent, followed by 2 percent undecided.

Ipespe interviewed 1 100 people for this survey between October 22 and 24. It was registered before the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE).


The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, and the confidence interval is 95.45 percent.

All major polls show Lula leading the presidential race, with a strong chance of winning the election against Bolsonaro.

The winner of the Brazilian runoff election on October 30 will take office as President of the Republic from January 2023 to December 2026.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Lul ... -0020.html

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Far-Right Reduces Election To “Spiritual War Against Communism”
By BRASILWIRE
October 26, 2022 Share
By Kawsachun News

Political debate in Brazil is being reduced to “Christians” vs “Communists” by Jair Bolsonaro’s campaign, with no room for discussion of proposals for government policy, projects and programs.

The campaign has resorted to exploiting religious voters and their faith for electoral purposes, with polls indicating that he’s been loosing key support from Christians in general and evangelicals specifically.

As per the incumbent’s campaign script, Lula’s “communist” government would force children to use unisex restrooms, liberalize abortion and drugs, impose “gender ideology” and threaten the integrity of families.

But according to Michelle Bolsonaro, the wife of Jair, Brazil is in the midst of a spiritual war in which religious freedom is at risk and the ideology of good, embodied by her husband, must overcome that of evil, which she considers to be the Workers’ Party (PT), as Brazil is the final barrier against the advance of communism.

She made her latest remarks on Friday at a “Mulheres com Bolsonaro” (Women with Bolsonaro) campaign event with a predominantly evangelical audience of women in Vitória’s airport, alongside controversial former Minister of Women and current Senator-elect, Damares Alves.

After being kept away from the public for the last four years, the first lady is now being deployed to sell her husband to predominantly female audiences and she’s been campaigning in overdrive. Polls show that Bolsonaro is at a disadvantage among women.

Both Michelle and Damares have also been used for damage control since Bolsonaro said he “felt chemistry” between himself and 14-year-old Venezuelan girls, in a now viral podcast interview which aired about a week ago.

In Friday’s Vitória speech, Michelle warned of the threat of “communism” against the exercise of religious freedom in the country:

“This government has been fighting for the family, for the country, for our freedom of expression and our religious freedom, which is being, yes, compromised by communism. We are seeing everything that is happening, and it is very easy to choose sides. Just don’t see who doesn’t want to see. You just don’t see those who are spiritually blind.”

In Michelle’s terms, the electoral race is between “Christians” and “Communists” and thus represents, for Christians, a “spiritual war” with the aim of stopping “communism”:

“Our purpose as Christians is to gather, to pray, to intercede, to talk, to help, to guide those who still do not understand the spiritual war that we are going through in Brazil. […] And if God doesn’t have mercy on our nation, if the people don’t wake up, we won’t have anywhere to go, because Brazil is the last barrier to communism,” she said.

Echoing right-wing media pundits and Bolsonarista candidates, Michelle warned that communism “only comes to steal, kill and destroy” but says the country will resist “because the majority of our nation is Christian.”

She also called her husband “imperfect”, telling the audience to look beyond his mistakes: “I ask that you do not look to the candidate, but to the agendas he defends: the ideology of good versus evil, so that we can dispel this dark party from our nation at once.”

Bolsonaro’s campaign hopes that it can add votes through spreading fear and promoting political intolerance, despite that Lula has never run or governed as a communist. Lula was in fact criticized for conceding to right-wing interests and for governing in a manner that was out of line with his own leftist party and the movements and sectors which put him in power.

A key element of Bolsonaro’s campaign strategy, is the repeated attempt to link Lula to President of Nicaragua Daniel Ortega and other socialist leaders (which Bolsonaro claims are all friends from the São Paulo Forum) and falsely accusing the Sandinista government of closing churches, persecuting religious leaders and attacking religious freedom—despite that Presidents Daniel Ortega and Nicolas Maduro frequently promote Christianity from their positions of power.

Lula, himself a Christian, has also zeroed in on Christian votes and has been happily receiving endorsementsfrom faith leaders who’ve denounced Bolsonarismo’s bigotry, intolerance and his manipulation of the faithful.

Paradoxically, Michelle Bolsonaro herself has expressed religious intolerance against religions of African origin, to the tune of the intolerance expressed by Bolivia’s ex-dictator Jeanine Añez, who as Senator insulted indigenous traditions in Bolivia.

Michelle and Jair both met with Añez’s daughter, Carolina, this week who thanked the first couple for their steadfast support for her jailed mother.

https://www.brasilwire.com/spiritual-wa ... communism/

Bolsonaro’s Long History With Police Shootout Ally Roberto Jefferson
By BRASILWIRE
October 24, 2022

After Roberto Jefferson shot and injured Federal Police agents sent to arrest him, supporters and sections of international media alike have attempted to erase the ex-congressman’s deep, long standing relationship with Jair Bolsonaro, and their collaboration during the 2022 election campaign.

By Alex Fleck

Jair Bolsonaro and Roberto Jefferson are long-time allies. Now that Jefferson threw grenades and shot at federal police, Bolsonaro is trying to erase this history, but they go way back. The far-right Brazilian president has tried to distance himself from hid ally. First, he lied about not having even a single photo taken with Jefferson. Then, after Sunday’s attacks, the liberal party presidential candidate recorded a short 17 second video for social media condemning the act. The footage looks more like a hostage video than something from a political campaign. The poor aesthetics and inauthenticity was lost on some, however. In a bizarre analysis, Brian Winter, the US based analyst from Council of Americas, called the response “disciplined”.

Social media automated accounts (bots) and Bolsonaro-connected influencers quickly began tweeting the same decades-old picture of Roberto Jefferson next to Lula to try and further erase the connections between the right wing allies. Bolsonaro and his social media militia can try to deny all they want, but his political finger prints are all over Jefferson and his attempted murders. Bolsonaro and Jefferson have a decades old relationship that involves their families, potential corruption, the coup against Dilma Rousseff, and even a fake presidential candidacy. And if all of this was not enough, Bolsonaro was even responsible for purposefully creating the loophole that allowed Jefferson to purchase the rifle he shot police with.

The Jeffersons and the Bolsonaros

The Jefferson and Bolsonaro families have a long relationship that goes beyond just photos, the occasional campaign event or messages of support. Their families have built a political history together. Roberto Jefferson joined his current party, PTB, in the 1980s and has been in the leadership of the party on and off for the last 3 decades. While Jefferson was only the formal president of the party between 2003 and 2005, it is not an exaggeration to say that he is de facto in charge of the party. Currently, Jefferson is named as the “honorary president” of PTB, but the president, Marcus Ferreira, is his former son in law.

Jair Bolsonaro himself became a member of PTB precisely when Jefferson became the leader of the party in 2003. Both of them were congressmen from the Rio de Janeiro State. The connections between the Bolsonaro and Jefferson families run much deeper. Jair Bolsonaro’s son soon started working for Jefferson and the leadership of PTB. Eduardo, Jair’s 3rd son, a current congress person and Tucker Carlson favorite, was hired in 2003 to work full-time as a congressional staffer by the PTB’s lower house leadership. The choice seems, it’s safe to say, personally motivated as Eduardo was hardly an experience or incredibly qualified candidate for the job. He was only 18 at the time, fresh out of high school and enrolled in law school in Rio. (Law is a 5yr bachelor’s degree in Brazil). Even though he was studying law full-time in Rio, his also full-time job was in Brasilia, 750 Miles away. The college freshman was paid at the time over 50 thousand reais a year, an amount equivalent to 16 times Brazil’s then minimum wage, for 16 months.

Jefferson and the witch hunt against Lula and the PT

Roberto Jefferson, an elected congressman from the same state as Jair – Rio de Janeiro -, was the then leader of PTB in Congress. Only months after Eduardo left, Jefferson was engulfed in a corruption and money laundering scandal involving the Brazilian postal service. At the time, a postal service employee was recorded on video asking for kickbacks from contractors for Jefferson’s party.

Jefferson threatened to take action and revenge against the Lula government if they allowed a parliamentary inquiry against him to start. Most parties from the PTB coalition withdrew their support from the inquiry, however, Lula’s worker’s party (PT) refused to be bullied, kept their support and guaranteed the creation of the committee that would investigate Jefferson. The PTB president, in turn, made good on his threat and became the whistle-blower for what would be the Mensalao investigation, the first effort to try and pin corruption charges against Lula. Jefferson was later convicted of corruption and money laundering, expelled from Congress, and jailed. Jair Bolsonaro, on the very next day, went to the floor of the Brazilian lower house to publicly lament Jefferson’s expulsion from Congress.

Jefferson’s PTB would return to prominence and their paths would publicly intersect again in the immediate aftermath of Dilma Rousseff’s win at the 2014 presidential elections. After defeating her rival at the polls, Rousseff faced anti-democratic opposition from both inside and outside Brazil’s political institutions. One of the coordinators and faces of these movements was the vice-leader of the then massive coalition that included PTB, Cristiane Brasil, Roberto Jefferson’s daughter. Cristiane took over control of the party whilst her father was in jail. She, along with Jair Bolsonaro, House Speaker Eduardo Cunha and then Vice President Michel Temer were the organizers and planners of the street protests and congressional procedural manoeuvres that resulted in the coup against Rousseff in 2016. Jair Bolsonaro, also a congress person at the time, took the opportunity to pay homage to Rousseff’s torturer, Brilhante Ustra. Soon after the coup, Cristiane helped to quash Temer’s own articles of impeachment due to corruption allegations. She was rewarded afterwards by being appointed by now President Temer as Labor Secretary, only to have her nomination blocked because she was notorious for violating labor laws and had several legal proceedings against her.

After Temer finished what should have been Rousseff’s term in 2018, Bolsonaro was elected president. Cristiane Brasil came off the national spotlight after losing her re-election bid, however, she soon found a job working in the mayoral administration of a Bolsonaro ally, Marcelo Crivella, an evangelical pastor in the city of Rio. After the Crivella administration was engulfed in a corruption scandal, Cristiane left and announced support for his opponent, Eduardo Paes.

The betrayal of the Bolsonaro ally did not go unnoticed and she was denounced publicly by her own father. Jefferson sided with the Bolsonaros and eventually expelled her from the party.

Jefferson, Bolsonaro and the 2022 election

During most of the pre-election period, while Bolsonaro was looking for a new party so he could run for President, Jefferson tried to lure the long-time ally to PTB. Bolsonaro opted to join the liberal party due to its larger size, financial resources and TV time. Jefferson, however, could better serve Bolsonaro in a different way. Jefferson began promoting his own candidacy for presidency. Rather than attacking the current president, Jefferson actually praised Bolsonaro and said that PTB was, in fact, the only party that supported Bolsonaro in every single state of the country. The purpose of Jefferson running himself would soon become clear: PTB was running only to attack Bolsonaro’s opponents and to pay compliments to his administration. Jefferson’s candidacy was blocked by Brazil’s electoral court because he had previously been convicted of corruption and money laundering. Forced to abdicate, Jefferson appointed his hand picked replacement: self-named priest “Padre Kelmon”. If it was initially unclear why then Jefferson would choose to run himself, this would soon become obvious. In the most important debate of the first round, Kelmon dedicated himself to insulting and badgering Lula all that he could with culture war rhetoric and red scare-type propaganda. At points of the debate, his disrespect and complete disregard for the rules of the debate even had Globo conservative news anchor William Bonner reprehend him for non-stop talking over Lula and an overall lack of civility.

After the debate, multiple journalists noted that Kelmon had been talking, strategizing, and even exchanging notes with the Bolsonaros during the commercial breaks. Furthermore, Bolsonaro is also connected to how his ally came into the possession of such dangerous weapons. There are still conflicting reports about just how many weapons were in possession of Jefferson, but the former congressman shot at federal police using an assault rifle-style weapon that has only become legal for civilians to own after Bolsonaro came to power.

It was the current government that created the necessary conditions for Sunday’s attack to take place. This is because, in an attempt to fulfill his campaign promises and to appease the powerful gun lobby, Bolsonaro’s administration created the CAC (Collectors, Shooters and Hunters) loophole. This purposeful measure passed by Bolsonaro allows any civilian to purchase equipment previously restricted to police and armed forces simply by registering at a shooting range as a CAC. Rather than a special permission for a small number of people to own a limited amount of guns, the Bolsonaro loophole greatly expanded the quantity of weapons and bullets CACs are allowed to own, as well as completely removed most requirements for CACs. This has resulted in six-fold increase in the number of people enrolled as collectors, from around 117 thousand in 2018 to over 673 thousand in July 2022.

Bolsonaro’s actions have created this explosion of the number of weapons in the hands of untrained, ill-prepared civilians. This, coupled with his red scare campaigning, undemocratic rhetoric, disregard for civility and attacks against the judiciary have created an extremely volatile and dangerous context. Jair Bolsonaro may try and hide it but Roberto Jefferson is his henchman and he might as well have personally given him the gun.

https://www.brasilwire.com/bolsonaros-l ... jefferson/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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