Russia today

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14433
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Sat Jun 08, 2024 2:57 pm

Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0

In the opening days of this year’s St Petersburg International Economic Forum, there were a number of signs that the Kremlin is taking a much tougher line in its relations with the West than hitherto in response to the war mongering rhetoric that has come out of Western Europe in the past week. France, the United Kingdom, Germany and the United States had publicly stated that the weapons they have supplied to Ukraine can be used as the Kievan authorities see fit, meaning that attacks on the Russian heartland with long range missiles coming from their factories and programmed by their specialists are permitted.

Meanwhile, in the run-up to the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landing commemorative activities in France yesterday, Emanuel Macron had done his very best to enrage the Kremlin by excluding Russians from the ceremonies and instead by warmly embracing the defender of the Bandera Nazi collaborators, President of Ukraine Zelensky. Macron compounded the insult to Russia by announcing that he will send Mirage 2005 all-purpose fighter jets to Ukraine before year’s end and that Ukrainian pilots are now in training in France.

The new hard line from Russia was evident already at the start of the week when deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was allowed to speak his piece to the press, condemning the entry of West European powers into what is essentially co-belligerent status in the conflict. Ryabkov, you will remember, was the hard liner from the Ministry back in December 2021 demanding a voluntary roll back of NATO to its 1994 borders through negotiations over a draft document to that effect, lest Russia be compelled to push them back by force.

Then the tough condemnation by Ryabkov was repeated to the press by his boss, Foreign Secretary Sergei Lavrov.

At his meeting with representatives of the leading news agencies from 16 countries on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin sounded a tough note when he said that Russia’s response to a possible attack on critical Russian infrastructure in its heartland using the long-distance missiles supplied by the West would be met by an asymmetrical response, namely by Russia’s supplying similarly advanced weapons to armed forces that are in confrontation with the United States and are in a position to inflict significant damage on them if properly equipped. This sounded very much like a plan to arm the Houthis of Yemen, who could take good advantage of Russia’s hypersonic ship killing missiles to take revenge on the U.S. aircraft carrier force in their region. Or to give an assistance to Iraqi and Syrian militias who have been attacking U.S. military bases that are being maintained in their territories illegally.

Of lesser importance, but still valuable as indication of which way the wind is blowing in Moscow, at that meeting with the press Vladimir Putin allowed himself to use some vulgar terms that are out of character. These came in his answer to the Reuters journalist who asked about Russia’s possibly using tactical nuclear weapons against the West. Aside from saying that Western talk about Russia’s supposed plans to attack them were as dense as the wood of the desk before him, he called this all ‘bullshit’ (бред or чушь собачья). We also know that in the last day or two for the first time ever Putin alluded to the United States as an ‘enemy’ rather than using the now conventional term ‘unfriendly country.’

Then came the news yesterday, that Russia is dispatching the Admiral Gorshkov warship and task force to the Caribbean for exercises. The Gorshkov is not just any ship in the Russian fleet. It has been fitted with the latest Zircon nuclear capable hypersonic missiles. I imagine that from waters near Cuba its missiles could reach Washington, D.C. in five or ten minutes.

This looks as though the Kremlin is deliberately setting up a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0, but basing its missiles in ships operating freely in international waters as is their right.

Apparently, the Biden administration has responded with feigned nonchalance to this development, saying that Russian exercises in the Caribbean are an innocent affair that take place periodically. Such is what Reuters reports.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-expect ... 024-06-05/

However, I very much doubt that Pentagon officials are in fact so laid back.

All of the foregoing was the warm up. Today, at the Plenary Session of the St Petersburg Forum we saw that the hard line – soft line debates are still raging in the Kremlin. This was clear in the very odd decision to designate the political scientist Sergei Karaganov as moderator, pitching questions to Vladimir Putin and to the two honored guests on the podium with him, the presidents of Bolivia and Zimbabwe. Still more peculiar were the, shall we say, very unfriendly questions that Karaganov put to Putin, all of which hinted at a power struggle in Moscow over how best to respond to the West. This will be the subject of the segment below.

*****

In the past, before the start of the Special Military Operation, moderators for the Plenary Sessions of the St Petersburg Forum were uniformly chosen from among well-known American journalists. Usually these were people who knew little or nothing about Russia and were reading to Putin questions prepared for them by their editors. A perfect case in point was CNN anchor, pretty woman Megyn Kelly who held the position at the 2017 Forum. Her list of questions was repetitive to the point of hectoring. But she added glamor and could draw a Western audience. When relations already were becoming quite strained, the organizers of the Forum slotted in the Vesti journalist, anchor of the widely watched Saturday evening news Sergei Brilyov. Brilyov could be said to be a half-way compromise, because he was deeply embedded in the West, with his family residing in the U.K. while he was a dual national with British passport.

As late as a day before the opening of this year’s Forum, there was speculation that the moderator would be Tucker Carlson. In one sense, his taking that role would ensure a vast audience for the proceedings. On the other hand, his very American persona would be in contradiction with the dominant anti-Western current that I now see.

Instead, what we got was Sergei Karaganov, a political scientist whose name many in the West will find familiar because of the shocking call he made in June 2023 for Russia to put an end to Western provocations in and over Ukraine by striking one or another of its enemies in the West using tactical nuclear arms and forcing capitulation.

Karaganov’s essay entitled “A Difficult but Necessary Decision” appeared in the most respected Russian foreign policy journal, Russia in Global Affairs”. See https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/a ... -decision/

The article is worth re-reading because many of the points critical of Russian foreign and military policy that Karaganov made there, all indirectly deeply critical of Vladimir Putin’s softly-softly approach to managing international relations, were repeated face to face in his exchange with Putin on stage this afternoon. The key point he made is that Russia must quickly climb the escalatory ladder and win by its own ‘shock and awe’ behavior; that this, in the end, will save millions of lives by disrupting the present gradual ascent towards all-out nuclear war between the superpowers.

Whereas Putin had allowed himself to be subjected to unfriendly questioning from Western journalists on stage at previous Forums, this is the first time I have seen him subjected to unfriendly questioning by a leading member of Russia’s own foreign policy establishment.

The tension was visible in Putin’s face as he argued that so far Russia’s sovereignty and existence has not been threatened, so there is no reason to speak of using nuclear weapons in this conflict. Moreover, the Russian armed forces are daily pushing back the front line, gaining new territory and decimating the enemy’s manpower. Ukraine is losing 50,000 men a month and even the most drastic mobilization plans now being foisted on Kiev by Washington will, at best, only fill in the losses, not strengthen the Ukrainian positions for a counter-offensive.

Karaganov also probed Putin’s mentioning to the world press Russia’s planned ‘asymmetrical’ response to any attacks on its territory. Would Russia be sending hypersonic battleship killing missiles to the ‘enemies of our enemies’ in the Middle East, he asked. Putin demurred, saying that nothing has yet been shipped, and that every future move would be taken only after thorough study.

*****

Putin’s speech to the Plenary Session about the 9 structural reforms that Russia will be implementing in the period to 2030 was itself an odd address for an audience consisting of not only Russians but of businessmen and government representatives from a great many foreign states. The speech was almost entirely about economic development of the country and improvement of living standards.

Before getting to his questions about Russian foreign and military policy, Karaganov had put questions to Putin from the economic domain. However, his dry manner, utterly lacking in charm, could not have warmed the hearts of the audience. And even in this domain, the questions he put to Putin were unfriendly.

Karaganov spoke as a true son of the alienated Russian intelligentsia when he asked his President whether in the ongoing recentralization of economic management there would not be reexamination of the whole privatization process of the 1990s which was directed in a criminal manner.

Without wishing to plead the case of the oligarchs, Putin put the blame not on criminal intentions but on mistaken economic assumptions of those managing the economic transformation at the time, namely that they had assumed that whatever the business under examination may be it would be in better hands if privately owned than to remain as state property. As it turned out, said Putin, we have found that the state is entirely capable of managing businesses and its role is essential for industries requiring heavy capital investment.

No doubt there were many Russians in the audience who enjoyed the sparring on the dais. But there surely were others who shared my concern that there is a battle going on in the Kremlin for the direction of Russian foreign and military policy.

What we saw in the discussion on stage today was an indication of who will take the reins of power in Russia if Vladimir Vladimirovich is overthrown or assassinated, as the United States so fervently hopes: it will very likely be people thinking like Sergei Karaganov, like Vladimir Solovyov, like Dmitry Medvedev, who will have fewer qualms about taking risks, including dropping Russia’s 70 kiloton tactical nuclear weapons here and there to vanquish the West and their Ukraine proxy. By the way, each of these ‘tactical’ as opposed to strategic bombs is four times as powerful as those dropped by the Americans on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/06/07/ ... risis-2-0/

*****.

Lenin and Rosa Luxemburg return to Berdyansk

June 7, 8:16

Image

In Berdyansk, all the streets that were renamed by Bandera after the Euromaidan were officially renamed. Following the example of the DPR and LPR, all names were rolled back to their original state before the Bandera renamings. As a result of the rollback, Lenin, Dzerzhinsky, Frunze, Rosa Luxemburg, Furmanov, Dimitrov, Tereshkova, Chapaev, etc. streets officially returned to Berdyansk.

Image
Image
Image

All questions regarding the names of settlements, streets, squares, etc. will be decided within the framework of Russian realities, taking into account the opinions of local residents. Well, traces of the Maidan and Bandera occupation must certainly be eliminated.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9192901.html

SPIEF 2024 and the fight against colonialism
June 7, 15:31

Image

Screensaver video at the opening of the plenary session of SPIEF 2024. All for the fight against Western colonialists, comrades!

(Video at link.)

At SPIEF 2024, a new/old concept of relations to Western colonialism is presented ( https://t.me/shuohuaxia/14562
) in a purified form. Until relatively recently, the Russian elites aspired to get there, to that same “golden billion,” but those days are gone. And this is good.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9193891.html

Google Translator

******

The 80th D-Day Anniversary Combines Historical Revisionism With A Proxy War Powwow

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUN 06, 2024

Image

Zelensky’s attendance has more of a practical meaning than just reinforcing historically revisionist narratives about World War II since his discussions with the American, British, French, and German leaders will decide the coming escalations and the new peace process that might follow them by the end of summer.

A lot of media attention has been focused on the 80th D-Day anniversary considering its emotive significance and the participation of several international leaders at the event. Zelensky’s attendance alongside Biden and several of his Western European counterparts appears out of place since Ukraine had nothing to do with this operation. The only reason that he was invited was to advance NATO’s historically revisionist narrative about World War II and engage in a proxy war powwow.

To explain, the first refers to the false claim that the Western Allies were chiefly responsible for the Nazis’ defeat, not the Soviet Union. That twisted version of the truth has always been around but began to be fiercely propagated after 2014 and especially following the start of Russia’s special operation in 2022. This narrative was popularized in parallel with the one portraying the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, whose real importance was clarified here, as forging a Soviet-Nazi Alliance that made World War II possible.

It accordingly became unacceptable among the Western elite and opinionmakers to acknowledge the USSR’s role in defeating the Nazis. Since facts about the post-war order can’t be erased, however, they’ve instead taken to manipulating the events leading up to it in order to spin the tale that the First Ukrainian Front which played a leading role in the Battle for Berlin was a semi-independent force. To that end, they overlook that it was named as such for geographic reasons and instead claim that it was for ethnic ones.

Some Ukrainians’ collaboration with the Nazis is either ignored or dishonestly explained as “a misguided form of anti-Soviet resistance”, which combines with the preceding claim about the First Ukrainian Front to craft an entirely new narrative. In the average Western mind nowadays, Ukrainians were victims of the Soviets before World War II and then of the Nazis during it; semi-independent victors in that war; and then once again victims of the Soviets after it like the rest of Central & Eastern Europe (CEE).

The metanarrative that’s formed through the abovementioned means is to equate the USSR with Nazi Germany in terms of moral responsibility for starting World War II and then comparing the first’s prolonged military presence in CEE after the war with the Nazis’ brief but highly genocidal occupation. It’s upon this basis that Russia wasn’t invited to attend the 80th D-Day anniversary but Zelensky was since the latter’s participation reinforces these views in the Western imagination.

Having explained the historically revisionist reasons behind Zelensky’s invitation to Thursday’s event, it’s now time to segue into its practical importance with respect to the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine. He’s powwowing with the American, British, French, and German leaders precisely at the moment that those four are “escalating to de-escalate” as was argued here with a view towards coercing Russia into freezing the conflict on comparatively better terms for the West and Ukraine.

They already approved of Ukraine using their arms to strike targets in universally recognized Russian territory, France is considering a conventional intervention there, and US-backed Poland is mulling shooting down Russian missiles over Western Ukraine. At the same time, President Putin signaled openness to compromise so long as Russia’s interests are ensured, Estonian Prime Minister Kallas said that Ukraine might lose some of its territory, and Biden claimed that it might not even join NATO.

The reality that’s dawning on the West amidst Russia’s victory in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition”, which even NATO chief Stoltenberg sheepishly admitted, is that this summer’s expected escalations might be their side’s last hurrah before they’re forced to reach some sort of compromise with Russia. Be that as it may, ideologically radicalized hawks decided to play a dangerous game of nuclear chicken this summer out of desperation to coerce it into concessions that could then be spun as a strategic victory.

This is the complicated military-diplomatic context within which Zelensky is meeting with the American, British, French, and German leaders in Normandy, which comes just a week before the next G7 Summit in Italy where more Western leaders will be in attendance as well as several others. These include the Brazilian and Turkish Presidents, the Indian premier, the Pope, and possibly also the Saudi Crown Prince, all five of whose countries have played roles in trying to mediate an end to the Ukrainian Conflict.

The Swiss “peace talks” will then begin right after the G7 ends, and less than a month later, the next NATO Summit will take place in DC. With this hectic schedule in mind, Zelensky’s attendance at the 80th D-Day anniversary conveniently enables him to discuss the Ukrainian dimension of these upcoming events with his top four patrons ahead of time, which will result in those five more effectively shaping the agenda in light of the complicated military-diplomatic context that was already explained.

The Brazilian, Turkish, Indian, and Vatican leaders’ participation in next week’s G7, as well as the Saudi Crown Prince’s possible attendance, can lead to one or some combination of those countries launching a hybrid Ukrainian peace process between the West and the Global South after the Swiss one inevitably fails. Bloomberg reported late last month that the EU wants Saudi Arabia to host inclusive talks, but each of the others also has strong arguments in their favor that could overshadow the Kingdom’s.

Turkiye earlier hosted Russian-Ukrainian talks, India is regarded as the Voice of the Global South, and the Vatican is widely considered (whether rightly or wrongly) to have high moral authority, but it might ultimately be Brazil that wins this diplomatic competition due to its hosting of this year’s G20. Last month’s joint Sino-Brazilian statement about their principles for resolving this conflict suggests that Beijing will work closely with Brasilia to ensure that its 12-step peace plan forms the basis of any talks.

It's premature to predict which of those countries might successfully launch the hybrid peace process that could follow the doomed-to-fail Western-centric Swiss talks, but it appears inevitable that an alternative will arise in the aftermath of the aforementioned, and this will be discussed during the upcoming G7 and NATO Summits. Zelensky’s powwow with his top four patrons therefore gives them the opportunity to shape the agenda of those two events in the direction of their preferred option.

That’s not to suggest that he himself has any say in these matters, but rather that he’ll simply sit on his superiors’ discussions prior to being told what he has to say and do to advance their interests. Nevertheless, the importance of him attending the 80th D-Day anniversary is that he’ll be present for his patrons’ debate over whether to support the proposed hybrid process, and any objections could see them gang up against him to demand his choreographed exit from the political stage in that case.

His participation thus has more of a practical meaning than just reinforcing historically revisionist narratives about World War II since Zelensky’s discussions with the American, British, French, and German leaders will decide the coming escalations and the new peace process that might follow them. The outcome of their talks can only be speculated, but it’ll eventually be seen during next week’s G7 Summit and the NATO one that’ll follow it in early July, during which time everything will be clearer.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-80th ... y-combines

Don’t Take Domestic Russian Pundits Seriously: Russia Isn’t Preparing To Nuke Poland

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUN 08, 2024

Image

Their words are purely their own and not representative of Russian policy, but that country’s foes and even friends alike have the habit of implying otherwise, with the former doing so maliciously while the latter does so innocently.

Russian military expert Konstantin Sivkov made headlines across the world after talking about Russia nuking Poland during his appearance on a top domestic talk show. Western media has the habit of dishonestly implying that such pundits’ words are scripted by the government, but the reality is that they’re always ad-libbed just like any other guest’s on major programs in every country. Having clarified that, what he said about Poland is indeed scandalous, and it went as follows:

“Let's look at Poland. This is the most realistic candidate which could become a small theatre of nuclear war. Are there 20 big cities there? I don't think so. If we allocate two nuclear missiles to each city, that's only 30-40 missiles. This is just a salvo from one Iskander division. In 10 to 15 minutes, both the state of Poland and the Polish people disappear. The Polish language will also disappear. Europeans must understand this. I urge Europeans to think about what they are doing.”

Sivkov didn’t describe the scenario in which Russia would use strategic nuclear weapons against only Poland, and he also just as unrealistically assumed that the US wouldn’t nuke Russia in response to the destruction of its NATO ally, both of which reflect poorly on his credentials as a military expert. No explanation was given either for why Russia would nuke big cities full of civilians instead of military sites, and his words about Poland, its people, and even their language disappearing are problematic.

The point that he was apparently trying to make in a cartoonishly ultra-nationalist way, the style of which is commonplace on top Russian talk shows, is that Poland should reconsider its role in the Ukrainian Conflict since it could be the first to be destroyed if World War III eventually breaks out. Even so, the words that he used to convey this were interpreted abroad as warmongering and even as an intent to genocide the Polish people due to what he said about them, their state, and language disappearing.

As was clarified above, however, his words are purely his own and not representative of Russian policy. Nevertheless, that country’s foes and even friends alike have the habit of implying otherwise, with the former doing so maliciously while the latter does so innocently. To explain, “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” still tend to indulge in wishful thinking despite President Putin advising his foreign intelligence service against this in summer 2022, which in this context takes the form of believing domestic Russian pundits.

These figures’ cartoonishly ultra-nationalist style is purely for internal consumption and predicated on the (arguably misguided) assumption that it’s what average Russians need to hear in order to continue supporting their government’s foreign and military policies. Pundits sometimes seem to compete with one another to see who can say the most outlandish things, which their media bosses tacitly approve of (at least for ratings’ sake) otherwise they’d have intervened to put an end to these antics long ago.

If someone took their words literally all the time, then they’d be under the false assumption that Russia is about to launch a preemptive nuclear strike against the West, and not out of self-defense as a last resort but out of the supposedly selfless desire to free the world from Western hegemony. Julia Davis, who was banned from entering Russia in early 2022 due to her hostile activities, regularly documents this on her YouTube channel and her work is often republished by Western media and influencers.

As regards the abovementioned narrative, it’s completely false as agreed upon by President Putin and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, two people who rarely see eye-to-eye on anything. The first called such claims “bullshit” during his meeting with the press last week while the second said around the same time that it’s unrealistic to imagine that Russia would attack “the strongest alliance, military power in the world.” Words like Sivkov’s and his peers’, however, lend false credence to this narrative.

The Western media then dishonestly implies that they’re supposedly representative of Russian policy, the perception of which is exploited to justify more aggressive moves against Russia. Even more false credence is lent to this debunked narrative when top Alt-Media influencers like Pepe Escobar, who now has a yearly tradition of meeting with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and just had a private dinner with his spokeswoman Maria Zakharova last week, post about a planned Russian first strike against the US.

This self-inflicted damage to Russia’s reputation by “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” like Pepe and patriotic Russians like Sivkov could swiftly be put to an end if the government realizes how counterproductive their cartoonishly ultra-nationalist messaging is and signals to its supporters to stop it. This warmongering rhetoric discredits President Putin’s expressed intent to resume negotiations aimed at ending the Ukrainian Conflict and then responsibly managing Russian-NATO tensions afterwards.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/dont-tak ... an-pundits

******

"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14433
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Sun Jun 09, 2024 6:01 pm

RUSSIA’S LEADING SCHOLAR OF NUCLEAR ARMS ALEXEY ARBATOV HAS CROSSED SWORDS WITH ONE OF THE MOST RENOWNED PRO-KREMLIN EXPERTS ON GEOPOLITICS, DMITRI TRENIN, ON WHETHER AND HOW NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL CAN BE REVIVED
JUNE 8, 2024
Russia Matters, 6/3/24

Russia’s leading scholar of nuclear arms Alexey Arbatov has crossed swords with one of the most renowned pro-Kremlin experts on geopolitics, Dmitri Trenin, on whether and how nuclear arms control can be revived, while also debating whether the tenets of Russia’s nuclear deterrence should evolve. In a commentary for Interfax, Arbatov describes Russia’s current approach as defensive deterrence, but also acknowledges the calls for a transition to offensive deterrence made by what he has described, tongue-in-cheek, perhaps, as “independent strategists,” and which would be employed to support the country’s military offensives. In his commentary, Arbatov also calls for “restoring arms control, renovating the negotiation process and expanding them from bilateral to various multilateral formats and new weapons systems.” In his turn, Trenin writes in his commentary for Interfax that “arms control is dead and will not be revived.” Moreover, Trenin calls for “an active strategy of nuclear deterrence that would lower the threshold for use of nuclear weapons that is too high today.” Instead of authorizing use of nuclear weapons over “a threat to the very existence of the state,” Russian strategic documents should authorize such use over “a threat to the vital interests of the country,” according to Trenin. Implementing Trenin’s suggestion would require revising not only the language on the use of nuclear weapons in the 2014 Military Doctrine and 2020 Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence, but also the language on national interests in, for instance, Russia’s 2021 National Security Strategy, which describes national interests such as “maintaining… harmony” and in “conservation of natural resources.”*

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/06/rus ... arms-cont/

DMITRY TRENIN: A MASSIVE TRANSFORMATION IS TAKING PLACE IN RUSSIA, AND THE WEST IS BLIND TO IT
JUNE 8, 2024
by Dmitry Trenin, RT, 5/13/24

Two and a half years into its war against the West in Ukraine, Russia certainly finds itself on a course toward a new sense of itself.

This trend actually predated the military operation but has been powerfully intensified as a result. Since February 2022, Russians have lived in a wholly new reality. For the first time since 1945, the country is really at war, with bitter fighting ongoing along a 2,000-kilometer front line, and not too far from Moscow. Belgorod, a provincial center near the Ukrainian border, is continuously subjected to deadly missile and drone attacks from Kiev’s forces.

Occasionally, Ukrainian drones reach far deeper inland. Yet, Moscow and other big cities continue as if there were no war, and (almost) no Western sanctions either. Streets are full of people and shopping malls and supermarkets offer the usual abundance of goods and food items. One could conclude that Moscow and Belgorod are a tale of two countries, that Russians have managed to live simultaneously both in wartime and peacetime.

This would be a wrong conclusion. Even the part of the country that ostensibly lives ‘in peace’ is markedly different from what it was before the Ukraine conflict began. The central focus of post-Soviet Russia – money – has not been eliminated, of course, but has certainly lost its unquestionable dominance. When many people – not only soldiers but civilians, too – are getting killed, other, non-material values are coming back. Patriotism, reviled and derided in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse, is re-emerging in force. In the absence of fresh mobilization, hundreds of thousands of those who sign contracts with the military are motivated by a desire to help the country. Not just by what they can get from it.

Russian popular culture is shedding – slowly, perhaps, but steadily – the habit of imitating what’s hot in the West. Instead, the traditions of Russian literature, including poetry, film, music are being revived and developed. A spike in domestic tourism has opened to ordinary Russians the treasures of their own country – until recently neglected, as a thirst for travel abroad was quenched. (Foreign travel is still available, but difficult logistics make reaching other parts of Europe far less easy than before).

Politically, there is no opposition to speak of against the current system. Almost all of its former figureheads are abroad, and Alexey Navalny has died in prison. A lot of former cultural icons who, after February 2022, decided to emigrate to Israel, Western Europe, or elsewhere, are fast becoming yesterday’s celebrities, as the country moves on. Those Russian journalists and activists who criticize Russia from afar are increasingly losing touch with their previous audiences, and are saddled with accusations of serving the interests of countries fighting Russia in the proxy war in Ukraine. By contrast, nearly two-thirds of young men who left Russia in 2022 for fear of being mobilized have returned, some of them quite embittered by their experience abroad.

Putin’s statement about the need for a new national elite, and his promotion of war veterans as the core of that elite, is more of an intention than a real plan at this stage, but the Russian elite is definitely going through a massive turnover. Many liberal tycoons essentially no longer belong to Russia; their desire to keep their assets in the West has ended up separating them from their native country.

Those who stayed in Russia know that yachts in the Med, villas on the Cote d’Azur, and mansions in London are no longer available to them, or at least no longer safe to keep. Within Russia, a new model of a mid-level businessperson is emerging: one who combines money with social engagement (not the ESG model), and who builds his/her future inside the country.

Russian political culture is returning to its fundamentals. Unlike that of the West, but somewhat similar to the East – it is based on the model of a family. There is order, and there is a hierarchy; rights are balanced by responsibilities; the state is not a necessary evil but the principal public good and the top societal value. Politics, in the Western sense of a constant, often no-holds-barred competition, is viewed as self-serving and destructive; instead, those who are entrusted with being at the helm of the state are expected to arbitrate, to ensure harmony of various interests, etc. Of course, this is an ideal rather than reality. In reality things are more complex and complicated, but the traditional political culture, at its core, is alive and well, and the last 30 to 40 years, while hugely instructive and impactful, have not overturned it.

Russian attitudes to the West are also complex. There is appreciation of Western classical and modern (but not so much post-modern) culture, the arts and technology, and of living standards to an extent. Recently, the previously unadulterated positive image of the West as a society has been spoiled by the aggressive promotion of LGBTQ values, of cancel culture, and the like. What has also changed is the view of Western policies, politics and especially politicians, which have lost the respect most Russians once had for them. The view of the West as Russia’s hereditary adversary has again gained prominence – not primarily because of Kremlin propaganda, but as a function of the West’s own policies, from providing Ukraine with weapons that kill Russian soldiers and civilians, to sanctions which in many ways are indiscriminate, to attempts to cancel Russian culture or to bar Russians from world sports. This hasn’t resulted in Russians viewing individual Westerners as enemies, but the political/media West is widely seen here as a house of adversaries.

There is a clear need for a set of guiding ideas about “who we are,” “where we are in this world” and “where we are going.” However, the word ‘ideology’ is too closely linked in many people’s mind with the rigidity of Soviet Marxism-Leninism. Whatever finally emerges will probably be built on the values-led foundation of traditional religions, starting with Russian Orthodoxy, and will include elements from our past, including the pre-Petrine, imperial, and Soviet periods. The current confrontation with the West makes it imperative that some kind of a new ideological concept finally emerges, in which sovereignty and patriotism, law and justice take a central role. Western propaganda pejoratively refers to it as “Putinism” but, for most Russians, it may be simply described as “Russia’s way.”

Of course, there are people unhappy with policies that have deprived them of certain opportunities. Particularly if those people’s interests are largely in money and individual wealth. Those in this group who have not gone abroad are sitting quietly, harbor misgivings and privately hope that somehow, at whatever cost to others, the “good old days” come back. They are likely to be disappointed. As for the changes within the elite, Putin is aiming to infuse fresh blood and vigor into the system.

It doesn’t look like some sort of ‘purge’ is coming. The changes, nonetheless, will be substantial, given the age factor. Most of the current incumbents in the top places are in their early 70s. Within the next six to ten years these positions will go to younger people. Ensuring that Putin’s legacy lives on is a major task for the Kremlin. Succession is not merely an issue of who eventually emerges in the top position, but what kind of ‘ruling generation’ comes in.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/06/dmi ... ind-to-it/

*******

About information pressure from Azerbaijan and the timing of signing a peace treaty
June 9, 2024
Rybar

The pressure of the Azerbaijani authorities on Armenia on the issue of changing the Constitution and signing a peace treaty continues.

Recently, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev again raised the issue of amendments to the basic law of Armenia, from which hints of territorial claims should be excluded and the abandonment of Nagorno-Karabakh should be recorded .

The Armenian Foreign Ministry responded yesterday that Baku’s demands under the Constitution are interference in internal affairs, and Yerevan is already ready to sign a peace agreement within a month .

After this, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry accused Armenia of militarization and “having a secret agenda regarding Azerbaijan.”

The “Western Azerbaijan Community” (as Azerbaijanis call Armenia) issued a statement to the world community demanding influence on Yerevan, simultaneously accusing the Armenian authorities of disrupting the peace process.

By the way, a recent report from the international agency S&P Global Ratings noted that a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be signed before November, that is, before the UN session on climate change ( COP29 ) scheduled in Baku.

As we noted earlier, Baku’s desire to resolve the issue with the Constitution of Armenia before the fall is due to the desire to hold parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan with the participation of deputies from Nagorno-Karabakh.

A demonstrative information campaign against Armenians with accusations of militarization and sabotage of negotiations shows Baku’s serious intentions to uncompromisingly resolve the issue on Azerbaijani terms.

And although the Armenian authorities will, in any case, fulfill the requirement to change the Constitution in the near future, in order to speed things up in Azerbaijan, they may well return to military provocations on the border.

https://rybar.ru/ob-informaczionnom-dav ... -dogovora/

Google Translator

******

High Speed ​​Rail Plan
June 8, 20:22

Image

Plan for the construction of high-speed highways in Russia.
And we also need a separate branch to Crimea.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9196361.html

Coal corridor to India
June 9, 11:31

Image

Plan diagram of the announced supplies of Russian coal to India through the territory of Iran. One of the ways to dump surplus coal on the market that formed after the introduction of sanctions. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that some of this coal later ends up in Europe from India.
By the way, you can estimate the importance of a stable Afghanistan - in the future (if Afghanistan does not fall into another war), it will be possible to create a route to India through it and Pakistan.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9197089.html

Climate science is being rejected in some in the hydro-carbon rich countries on the US hit list. Their desire to exploit this source of national wealth is one thing but this is compounded by recognition that Western capital's 'Green Revolution' is structured and is intended to be a honey pot for said capitalists and is a scam. Capital kills us directly and indirectly.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14433
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:06 pm

MAJOR: Russia Officially Becomes World's 4th Largest Economy, Passing Japan

SIMPLICIUS
JUN 10, 2024

Many will recall last year’s news that Russia had overtaken Germany for the 5th spot in GDP PPP. At the SPIEF, Putin announced that Russia has now officially surpassed Japan for the 4th spot, according to the World Bank: (Video at link.)

Image

But first a little background:

This may seem like old news, as people have posted Russia’s putative overtaking of Japan’s economy several months ago. However, there was much confusion as the source most used was a UK website called World Economics, which they conflated with the World Bank but which is in fact not an ‘official’ source of any kind.

What has happened now is that the World Bank announced last week that they have revised their GDP figures from 2021 onward, and in those revisions they have found that Russia had already surpassed Japan even as far back as 2021, and has continued pulling ahead up to now.

Here is their official release: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press ... d-for-2021

WASHINGTON, May 30, 2024 — New purchasing power parities (PPPs), which provide a standardized way to assess the relative buying power of different economies, were released today by the International Comparison Program (ICP) for the reference year 2021.

They have a variety of links to various charts and visualizations.

Image

Image

And in fact, Russia is now increasingly pulling ahead of Germany, leaving it in the dust at 6.45t vs. 5.9t. Not to mention that India’s figure is 10.9t, with Russia having only 1/10th the population of India yet more than half of its economic power. What’s more is that official sources report Russia has a ~40% gray economy which cannot be accounted for, virtually the highest in the world:

Image

Here’s a whole Russian article from early this year discussing it in detail:

Image
https://dzen.ru/a/ZcqSDF6g53N92MjS

Bear in mind this was even before the official World Bank announcement of Russia’s surpassing of Japan. The article notes:

The other day, the World Bank published a report on the shadow economy by country, according to which it accounts for about 5% of total GDP in Japan, 8% in America, and as much as 39% in our country, Russia.

The shadow economy index in Russia is one of the highest in the world, almost 84% higher than the global average. Only Ukraine (46% of GDP, or UAH 1.1 trillion), Nigeria (48% of GDP) and Azerbaijan (67% of GDP) have a larger economy in the shadow. In fifth place is Sri Lanka with an indicator of 38%.


It goes on to anecdotally explain that many Russians earn up to a third of their salaries from off-the-books gray markets, with millions of ads for ‘unofficial’ services attesting to this.

That means Russia’s true concealed economic might may be even far higher and actually closer to that of India’s. I have already argued at length that Russia, being the most sanctioned and economically undermined and terrorized country on earth, via embargoes and outright industrial sabotage like the Nordstream attacks, may be underachieving—for now—while hiding a far more powerful economy than current records imply. If you take away those artificial handicaps unfairly gimping Russia’s economy, then it is almost certain that Russia’s true unmeasured economic might is that of 3rd place behind China and the U.S. It’s remarkable that even under unparalleled attack, Russia is able to command one of the fastest growing and most robust economies in the world.


Economist Stefan Demetz also correctly notes that Russia’s uniquely low debt structure and self-sufficiency in the form of trade surplus makes its economic value even higher than it seems:

Image

World Bank recently reclassified PPP GDP data and Russia became 4th ahead of Japan and Germany.

But considering very low debt vs high reserve levels and self sufficiency on energy, food, military Russia looks better than these charts indicate.


There are many who doubt the significance of the PPP index as compared to nominal GDP, believing the inculcated Western lie that regular GDP is the ‘real one’ while PPP is just a ‘creative’ but ultimately spurious reformulation. But that is far from the truth, at least when it comes to trade surplus countries, specifically: for them PPP is the real economic indicator.

That’s because nominal GDP is priced in dollars (USD) and therefore is only relevant if you primarily use those dollars to purchase things, which is what’s done by countries who do a lot of importing of their goods, since most goods on the world markets are bought in the global ‘reserve currency’ of the USD. But Russia is a trade surplus, which means it exports far more than it imports. It is self sufficient and doesn’t need to price much in dollars, but rather in its own currency. When that is done, the “nominal” GDP priced in dollars becomes irrelevant and does not apply. And the few things Russia does import, it now settles in other native currencies, like Yuan with China, etc. In short: for countries like Russia, GDP PPP is the only accurate measure of economic size and power, it is the nominal GDP which deceptively prices the target country’s economy in terms of a foreign currency (USD) that it doesn’t even use in its internal markets and which skews the numbers based on fluctuations of currency exchange valuations.

You can read much more about this in my previous article on the topic:

The Truth About Russia's Economic Power: Is It Really as Small and Weak as the West Claims?
SIMPLICIUS
·
APRIL 2, 2023

Image
Preface: The following article is based on one I previously published on the Saker on this exact anniversary, which I believe bears increased importance in today’s climate. So I have decided to heavily revise and update it with the latest data, tripling its length in the process, to make it as contemporaneously pertinent as possible. I believe this is i…

Read full story https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/the ... s-economic

This will end the free portion of the article. After the jump, we’ll be seguing into the current global economic developments, with a focus on the U.S. in particular, juxtaposing the rise of the BRICS with that of the declining West, with special highlight paid to the fraudulent economic numbers recently released by the Biden administration and what grim outlook it poses for the future of the entire Western financial order.

(Paywall)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/maj ... mes-worlds

******

DIALOGUE WORKS INTERVIEWS MIT PROFESSOR THEODORE POSTOL ON UKRAINE, RUSSIA, & PUTIN
JUNE 9, 2024



https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/06/dia ... sia-putin/

******

Strikes and protests in Armenia
June 10, 2024
Rybar

Image

Since yesterday, mass strikes have been going on in Armenia, organized by the Tavush for the Motherland movement, led by Bagrat Srbazan . On Sunday at 18.30 local time, supporters of the archbishop gathered in Republic Square .

There, the leader of the movement announced the start of a four-day action on the streets of Yerevan . He called on people to continuously block movement without interruption to work and leisure in order to dictate the will of the people.

Opposition deputies of the National Assembly, at the request of the protesters, will initiate an extraordinary meeting of parliament on June 11 at 18.00 on the topic of the resignation of the government and the formation of a new one.

After his speech, Bagrat Srbazan led a crowd of people to the government quarter at the Baghramyan-Demirchyan intersection , where the protesters were met by hundreds of police.

After several small clashes with police, protesters barricaded the street and set up a tent camp.

The protest movement is approaching its culmination, as stated by the leader of the movement. What needs to be assessed now is how the four-day strikes will proceed and what the government's response will be. The further outcome will depend on this.

Pro-government information resources are already beginning to spread veiled threats against protesters. At the same time, it is also important to understand what the opposition is ready to do, which should convene a meeting tomorrow to dismiss the prime minister.

https://rybar.ru/zabastovki-i-protesty-v-armenii-2/

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14433
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Tue Jun 11, 2024 3:48 pm

PUTIN’S MEETING WITH HEADS OF INTERNATIONAL NEWS AGENCIES (EXCERPT RE UKRAINE)
JUNE 10, 2024
Kremlin website, 6/5/24

News Director at DPA Martin Romanczyk (retranslated): Good evening, Mr President. Good evening, everyone.

Chancellor Scholz has agreed to supply arms to Ukraine. I would like to ask you how you would react if Scholz changed his mind. And what do you think this implies for Germany? Did you try to warn, caution or maybe threaten Mr Chancellor when he made the decision to send weapons to Ukraine?

Vladimir Putin: Why would you think we would threaten anyone? We never threaten anyone, least of all the head of another state. That would be mauvais ton, unacceptable in polite society.

We have our own viewpoint on certain issues. We know the European states’ approach, including Germany’s approach, on the current developments in Ukraine.

Everyone believes that Russia started the war in Ukraine. But no one – I want to emphasise this – no one in the West, no one in Europe is willing to remember how this tragedy began. It started with an unconstitutional coup in Ukraine. This was the beginning of the war. But is Russia to blame for that coup? No. Have those who are trying to blame Russia today forgotten that the foreign ministers of Poland, Germany and France went to Kiev at the time and signed the settlement document as guarantors of a peaceful constitutional resolution of the crisis? This is something Europe, including Germany, prefers to forget. Because if they remembered, they would have to explain why the leaders of Germany, along with the other signatories, never demanded that the perpetrators of the coup in Ukraine return to the constitutional framework. Why did they neglect their obligations as guarantors of agreements between the incumbent government and the opposition like this? They are as responsible for what happened as the forces in the United States that provoked the unconstitutional seizure of power. Don’t you know what followed? The residents of Crimea made a decision to secede from Ukraine, and the residents of Donbass refused to obey those who carried out the coup in Kiev. This is what followed. This is how this conflict began.

After that, Russia made every effort to come up with a formula for a peaceful settlement. What is now known as Minsk agreements were signed in Minsk in 2015. By the way, they were institutionalised by a UN Security Council resolution. It was an actionable document. Instead, they chose to resolve this issue militarily. They used artillery, tanks and aircraft against civilians in southeastern Ukraine. For some reason, no one, I repeat, no one wants to talk about this either in Germany and other European countries, or the United States. So be it.

We facilitated the signing of the Minsk agreements, but it turned out that no one was going to act on them. The former Chancellor of Germany and the former President of France have publicly stated so.

What does this mean, Mr Romanchik? They made a public confession that they were not going to implement the Minsk agreements, and signed them just in order to buy time to arm Ukraine and to create proper conditions for continuing hostilities. All they did was pull the wool over our eyes. Is that not so? Is there any other way to explain what happened?

For eight long years we have been trying to achieve a peaceful solution. Eight years!

A former chancellor once told me, “You know, in Kosovo, we, NATO, went ahead without a Security Council resolution, because blood was spilled for eight years in Kosovo.” What about the blood of Russian people spilled in Donbass? Was it water, not blood? No one wanted to pay attention to it.

In the end, this is what we were forced to do when the then Ukrainian authorities said that they did not like a single clause of the Minsk agreements, and the then Foreign Minister said they were not going to fulfill them.

Do you realise that these territories were plunged into economic and social degradation? Eight years. I am not even talking about murders, constant killing of women, children, and so on.

Considering this, we were compelled to recognise their independence. We did not recognise their independence for almost eight years. We were looking forward for both sides to come to terms and to resolve this issue peacefully. Eight years! When they said they were not going to implement any peace agreements, we had to use military force in order to bring them into compliance.

We were not the ones to start this war. The war started in 2014 following the coup and their attempt to use cannons to break resistance of the people who opposed the coup.

And now for people following international events and international law. What happened next? What did we do? We did not recognise this for eight years. What did we do when we realised that the Minsk Agreements will never be fulfilled? Please note everyone: we recognised the independence of these self-proclaimed republics. Could we do this from the point of view of international law, or no? As Article One of the UN Charter says, we could. It is about the nations’ right to self-determination. The UN International Court of Justice ruled (it is put in writing) that, if any territory of a country decides to become independent, it is not obliged to appeal to the higher authorities of that country. All this was done regarding Kosovo. There is a decision of the International Court of Justice, which reads: if a territory has decided on independence, it is not obliged to apply to the capital for permission to exercise this right.

However, if it is like it is written in the UN court decision, then these unrecognised republics, the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, had the right to do so. And they did. Did we have the right to recognise them? Of course, we did. And we did recognise them. Next, we entered into an agreement with them. Could we sign an agreement with them or not? Yes, of course. The agreement provided for assistance to these states in the event of aggression. Kiev waged a war against these states, which we recognised eight years later. Eight years.

Could we recognise them? We could. And then, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, we provided them with assistance. You know, no matter what anyone says, this is exactly what I told Mr Guterres, the logic we followed, step by step. Where is the mistake here? Where are the violations of international law here? There are no violations, considering international law.

Then we hear the answer: well, you attacked anyway. We did not attack, but defended ourselves, just to make it clear to everyone. The first step towards the war was taken by those who encouraged the bloody unconstitutional coup d’etat.

Now regarding the arms supplies. Arms supplies to a conflict area is always a bad idea. Especially when those who are supplying weapons not only supply them but also operate them. It is a very serious and very dangerous step. You and I know this, and the Federal Republic doesn’t deny it (I certainly don’t know how it made its way to the press), that a Bundeswehr general discussed where and how to deliver a strike: either at the Crimean Bridge or at some other facilities inside Russia, including a territory that no one doubts belongs to Russia.

When the first German tanks, tanks made in Germany, appeared on Ukrainian soil, it produced a moral and ethical shock in Russia because the attitude in Russian society to the Federal Republic has always been very good. Very good. Now, when they say that some missiles are to appear that would attack facilities on Russian territory, it will certainly destroy Russian-German relations for good and all. But we understand that, as one of the well-known German politicians said, after World War II the Federal Republic of Germany has never been a sovereign state in the full sense of the word.

We were in contact with Mr Scholz, we met on many occasions. I don’t want to assess the performance of the Federal Government, but it’s the German people, the German voters who are making such assessments. European parliamentary elections are coming up; we will look at what is going to happen there. As far as I know – of course, I actually care about Germany, I have many friends there, whom I am trying not to contact, not to subject them so some obstruction in the country, I am trying not to maintain relations with them, but I simply know these people for many years, I know that they are reliable friends and I have many of them in Germany. So, I am also aware of the balance of forces in the political arena. As far as I understand, if I am not mistaken, the CDU/CSU now has somewhere around 30 percent, the Social Democrats have about 16 percent, the Alternative for Germany already has 15 percent, and all the others are lower. This is the elector’s response. This is the Germans’ mood, the mood of the German people.

I understand the dependence of the Federal Republic in the area of defence, in security in general. I understand its dependence in politics, in information policy, because wherever you point to there, to any major publishing house (I don’t know where you work) its ultimate beneficiary is located overseas, some US foundation. Well, I applaud those American foundations and those who are conducting such policy: It’s great that they are holding the information field of Europe so firmly in terms of their interests. And they are also trying hard not to reveal themselves.

It’s all understandable. The influence is tremendous and it is very difficult to oppose it. It is clear. But there are some elementary things. Speaking about these elementary things – it is strange that nobody in the current German leadership protects German interests. It’s clear that Germany does not have full sovereignty, but Germans are still there. Their interests should be taken into account and protected, at least a little bit.

Look: the ill-starred pipelines at the bottom of the Baltic Sea have been blown up. No one is even indignant – as if this is the way it should be. We nevertheless continue to supply gas to Europe through the territory of Ukraine. We continue to supply gas. There were two pipeline systems there, and Ukraine closed one of them, screwed the valve, just closed it and that’s all, although there were no grounds for this. It left only one pipeline system – well, okay. But gas goes to Europe through it, and European consumers receive this gas. Our gas also goes to Europe through Turkey via Turkish Stream, and European consumers receive it.

OK, one Nord Stream pipe was blown up, but another Nord Stream pipe is intact, thank God. Why doesn’t Germany want to receive our gas through this pipe? Can anyone explain the logic? You can get it through Ukraine, you can get it through Turkey, but you can’t get it through the Baltic Sea. What kind of nonsense is this? There is no formal logic in this, I don’t even understand it.

They would better say that Europe should not get gas at all. OK, fine, we’ll get over it, Gazprom will survive. But you don’t need it, you need to buy overpriced liquefied natural gas shipped from across the ocean. Don’t your ‘environmentalists’ know how liquefied natural gas is produced? By fracking. Ask the people in the United States where they produce this gas – sometimes they get slop instead of water running from their taps. Your ‘environmentalists’ who are in power in the government, don’t know that? They probably do.

Poland has closed its Yamal-Europe pipeline. Gas was going to Germany through Poland. We didn’t shut it down, the Poles did. You know better than I do the effect the termination of our ties in the energy sector has had on the German economy. It’s a sad result. Many large industrial companies are looking for a place to land, but only not on German territory. They are opening in the USA and in Asia, but the business conditions there make them uncompetitive. And this, by the way, can have severe consequences for the European economy as a whole, because the German economy (everyone is well aware of this, no offence to any other Europeans) is the locomotive of the European economy. If it sneezes and coughs, everyone else will immediately get the flu. France’s economy is also teetering on the brink of recession right now, everyone knows that. And if the German economy goes down, all of Europe will be shuddering.

I am not suggesting that the Euro-Atlantic ties should be broken. Otherwise, someone (not necessarily you) might hear what I am saying and infer that I am calling for breaking up Euro-Atlantic solidarity. Listen, your politics are flawed, and you are making glaring mistakes every step of the way. I think the current developments represent a major mistake for the United States itself. In a push to maintain their leadership using the means they are using, they are, in fact, causing harm to themselves. But things are even worse for Europe. Indeed, you could say, “We support you in this, that, and that, but this belongs to us. Look, if we undermine our economy, everyone will feel the consequences. You cannot do that, we are against it, it is taboo, do not touch it.”

But the federal government is not doing that, either. Frankly, sometimes I get confused and cannot see the logic behind this line of conduct. Okay, they were going to undermine Russia’s economy, and they thought it would take them three to six months to get there. However, everyone can see that this is not happening. Last year, our economy grew by 3.4 percent. This year, it grew by 5.4 percent in the first quarter. Moreover, according to international financial and economic organisations – the World Bank re-ran some numbers (it was our goal) – and we were in fifth place in terms of purchasing power parity in the world and we set ourselves the goal of making it to the fourth place. I think you are following the calculations of our colleagues from international financial institutions. Quite recently, last week, I think, the World Bank ran the numbers on our GDP only to find out that we were outdoing Japan in this regard. According to the World Bank, Russia is the world’s fourth largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity meaning that we achieved that goal.

That is not what really matters, though. This is not an end in itself. What is important, though, is to keep up the pace and progress. So far, we have been able to do so, because in the first quarter, as I said earlier, our GDP amounted to 5.4 percent. The reason I am saying this is not to brag about it. I want those who are trying to get in our way, to cause us harm and to slow down our progress realise that what they are doing does more harm to themselves than to us. They should realise this, draw conclusions and mend their ways for their own benefit. But we do not see it happening.

No offence, but I think that the level of professional training of the decision-makers, including in the Federal Republic [of Germany] leaves much to be desired.

Andrei Kondrashov: Thank you, Mr Romanchik.

I think it would be logical to not wander away from the European theme and give the floor to France: a country that admits quite officially that European troops can be sent to Ukraine.

Our guest is Editor-in-Chief for Europe at France-Press, Karim Talbi. Mr Talbi speaks excellent Russian, because, like Martin Romanchik, he worked as a correspondent in Moscow for quite a long time.

Please, Mr Talbi, your question.

AFP Editor-in-Chief for Europe Karim Talbi: Mr President, my question also concerns Ukraine.

Why cannot you still disclose the number of losses among Russian soldiers in Ukraine during the hostilities?

Vladimir Putin: If this is the only thing you are interested in, I can say that, as a rule, no one ever talks about this. If they do, then, as a rule, they distort the real figures.

I can tell you with complete confidence that our losses, especially as concerns irreparable losses, unfortunately, then they are several times less than on the Ukrainian side.

I can tell you exact numbers captured by the both sides, or war prisoners. There are 1,348 of our soldiers and officers held by the Ukrainian side. I know the exact numbers because we work with them every day. As you know, there was an exchange just recently: 75 people were exchanged for 75 people. We have 6,465 Ukrainian soldiers.

If we talk about approximate irretrievable losses, then the ratio is the same: one to about five. This is what we will proceed from. This is precisely the reason of the attempt to carry out total mobilisation in Ukraine: because they suffer great losses on the battlefield.

You know, this is how it looks: according to our calculations, the Ukrainian army loses 50,000 people per month as sanitary and irretrievable losses both, although their irretrievable and sanitary losses are approximately 50/50. The total mobilisation effort, which is now underway, does not solve the problem, because, according to our data (we get it from various sources), they recruit around 30,000 [people] per month by force or without force, but mostly by seizing men on the streets. There are not many people willing to fight there.

According to our data, last month and the month before that they recruited about 50,000–55,000. But this does not solve the problem. You know why? Because this mobilisation can only cover losses. All of these men are sent to make up for losses. This is the basic problem that leads to a lowering of the mobilisation age: from 27 years old down to 25 now.

We know from the Ukrainian side (it’s an open secret there; there are no secrets there at all): the US administration insists that the threshold be gradually lowered from 25 to 23 years, then to 20 years, and then to 18, or immediately to 18 years, because right now they are already requiring 17-year-old boys to register. We know this for sure: this is a demand from the US administration to the Ukrainian leadership, if it can be considered leadership after the election was cancelled.

Anyway, as I have said in one of my recent public appearances – I think it was when I talked to the media while returning from my visit to Uzbekistan – I believe that the United States administration would force the current Ukrainian leadership to take these decisions on lowering the mobilisation age all the way down to 18 years, and once that is done, they will simply get rid of Zelensky. But first, he will have to do it. In fact, this is not an easy thing to do. They will have to enact a law and take specific steps to make this happen.

We are in June 2024 right now. I think that they would need a year to do this. This means that they would tolerate him until the beginning of next year, as least, but once he does everything they expect from him, they will just wave him goodbye and replace him with someone else. There are several candidates for this job, as far as I understand.

However, all this entails so many casualties. I mentioned the 50,000 figure, but this is as conservative as you can get. The 50,000 figure is what we see on the battlefield, but we can see that there were other losses too, without being able to count them. They happened deep in the rear, behind the lines, and once you factor them in, the number becomes much bigger. This is what I can say about the casualties.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/06/put ... e-ukraine/

******

Petersburg to the Global Majority
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 10, 2024
Pepe Escobar

Image
In the year of the Russian presidency of BRICS, the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) had to deliver something special. And deliver it did: over 21,000 people representing no less than 139 nations – a true microcosm of the Global Majority, discussing every facet of the drive towards a multipolar, multinodal, polycentric world.

St. Petersburg, beyond all the networking and the frantic deal-making – $78 billion-worth clinched in only three days – crafted three intertwined key messages already resonating all across the Global Majority.

Message Number One:

President Putin, a “European Russian” and true son of this dazzling, dynamic historic marvel by the Neva, delivered an extremely detailed one-hour speech on the Russian economy at the forum’s plenary session.

The key takeaway: as the collective West launched total economic war against Russia, the civilization-state turned it around and positioned itself as the world’s 4th largest economy by purchasing power parity (PPP). Putin showed how Russia still carries the potential to launch no less than nine sweeping – global – structural changes, an all-out drive involving the federal, regional, and municipal spheres.

Everything is in play – from global trade and the labor market to digital platforms, modern technologies, strengthening small and medium-sized businesses and exploring the still untapped, phenomenal potential of Russia’s regions.

What was made perfectly clear is how Russia managed to reposition itself beyond sidestepping the – illegitimate – sanctions tsunami to establishing a solid, diversified system oriented towards global trade – and completely linked to the expansion of BRICS. Russia-friendly states already account for three-quarters of Moscow’s trade turnover.

Putin’s emphasis on the Global Majority’s accelerated drive to strengthen sovereignty was directly linked to the collective West doing its best – rather, worst – to undermine trust in their own payment infrastructure.

And that leads us to…Glazyev and Dilma rock the boat.

Message Number Two:

That was arguably the major breakthrough in St. Petersburg. Putin stated how the BRICS are working on their own payment infrastructure, independent from pressure/sanctions by the collective West.

Putin had a special meeting with Dilma Rousseff, president of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB). They did talk in detail about the bank’s development – and most of all, as later confirmed by Rousseff, about The Unit, whose lineaments were first revealed exclusively by Sputnik: an apolitical, transactional form of cross-border payments, anchored in gold (40%) and BRICS+ currencies (60%).



The day after meeting Putin, president Dilma had an even more crucial meeting at 10 am in a private room at SPIEF with Sergey Glazyev, the Minister for Macro-Economy at the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Glazyev, who had previously provided full academic backing to the Unit concept, explained all the details to President Dilma. They were both extremely pleased with the meeting. A beaming Rousseff revealed that she had already discussed The Unit with Putin. It was agreed there will be a special conference at the NDB in Shanghai on The Unit in September.

This means the new payment system has every chance to be at the table during the BRICS summit in October in Kazan, and be adopted by the current BRICS 10 and the near future, expanded BRICS+

Now to…

Message Number Three:

It had to be, of course, about BRICS – which everyone, Putin included, stressed will be significantly expanded. The quality of the BRICS-related sessions in St. Petersburg demonstrated how the Global Majority is now facing a unique historical juncture – with a real possibility for the first time in the last 250 years to go all-out for a structural change of the world-system.

And it’s not only about BRICS.

It was confirmed in St. Petersburg that no less than 59 nations – and counting – plan to join not only BRICS but also the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).

No wonder: these multilateral organizations now finally have established themselves on the forefront of the drive towards the multimodal (italics mine) – and to quote Putin in his address – “harmonic multipolar world”.

The Top Sessions for Further Reference

All of the above could be followed, live, during the frantic two and a half days of forum’s sessions. This is a sample of what were arguably the most engaging. The broadcasts should be very helpful as references going forward – all the way to the BRICS summit in October, and beyond.

On the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Arctic expansion. Best motto of the session: “We need icebreakers!” The essential discussion to understand how the current global trade supply chains are not reliable anymore and how the NSR is faster, cheaper and reliable.

On the BRICS business expansion.

On the BRICS goals for a true new world order.

On the 10 years of the EAEU.

On the closer integration between EAEU and ASEAN.

The BRICS+ roundtable on the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC).

This session was particularly crucial. The key actors of the INSTC are Russia, Iran and India – all BRICS members. Actors on the margins which will profit from the INSTC – from the Caucasus to Central and South Asia – are already interested to be part of BRICS+. Igor Levitin, a top Putin advisor, was a key figure in this session.
The Greater Eurasia Partnership (GEP).

This was an essential discussion on what is eminently a civilizational project – in contrast with the collective West’s exclusionary approach. The discussion shows how GEP interlinks with SCO, EAEU and ASEAN and stresses the inevitable complementarity of transport, logistics, energy and payment structure all across Eurasia. Glazyev, Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk and former Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl – always ultra-sharp – are key participants. Extra – astonishing – bonus: Adul Umari, acting Minister of Labor in Taliban Afghanistan, interacting with his Eurasia partners.

On the philosophy of multipolarity.

Conceptually, this session interacts with the GEP session. It offers the perspective of a concise inter-civilizational dialogue under the framework of BRICs+. Alexander Dugin, the irrepressible Maria Zakharova and Professor Zhang Weiwei of Fudan University are among the participants.

On Polycentricity. That involves all Global Majority institutions: BRICS, SCO, EAEU, CIS, CSTO, CICA, African Union, the renewed Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Glazyev, Maria Zakharova, Senator Pushkov and Alexey Maslov – director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University – discuss how to build a polycentric system of international relations.



As Project Ukraine Faces Doom…

Finally, it’s inevitable to contrast the – hopeful, auspicious – mood at SPIEF with the collective West’s hysterics as Project Ukraine faces doom. Putin made it quite clear: Russia will prevail, no matter what. The collective West may rekindle “the Istanbul solution”, as Putin noted, but modified “based upon the new reality” in the battlefield.

Putin also deftly defused all the pre-fabricated, nonsensical nuclear paranoia infesting Atlanticist circles.
Still, that won’t be enough. On the packed corridors at SPIEF, and in informal meetings, there was total awareness about the Hegemon’s desperation-fueled warmongering masked as “defense.” There were no illusions that the current dementia posing as “foreign policy” is betting on a genocide not only for the sake of the “aircraft carrier” in West Asia but mostly to cow the Global Majority into submission.

That would raise the serious possibility that the Global Majority needs to build a military alliance to deter this – planned – Global War.

Russia-China, of course, plus Iran and credible Arab deterrence – with Yemen showing the way: all of that may become a must. A Global Majority military alliance will have to show up one way or another: either before the – incoming, planned – disaster, to mitigate it; or after it has totally engulfed West Asia into a monstrous, vicious war.

Ominously, we may be nearly there. But at least St. Petersburg offered glimmers of hope. Putin:

“Russia will be the heart of the multipolar harmonic world.”

Now that’s how you clinch a one-hour speech.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/06/ ... -majority/

*******

Russia and Venezuela sign agreement to counteract the effects of sanctions

Image
The memorandum of understanding will allow progress in the creation of financial and logistical mechanisms immune to external interference. @yvangil

By: Joaquín Castro

June 11, 2024 Time: 09:07

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Venezuelan counterpart within the framework of the Brics+ ministerial meeting

The Foreign Ministers of Russia, Sergei Lavrov, and Venezuela, Yván Gil, signed this Tuesday a memorandum of understanding on cooperation to counteract unilateral coercive measures.

In his account on the social network

This will allow us to advance in the creation of financial and logistical mechanisms immune to external interference and strengthen our cooperation in areas such as agriculture, medicine, energy and advanced technologies.


Last week, the Venezuelan foreign minister began a tour of China, Vietnam and Russia.

Upon his arrival in the city of Nizhny Novgorod, where the meeting of Foreign Ministers is taking place, Gil stated that President Nicolás Maduro gave him instructions to bring "Venezuela's contributions to that organization (Brisc) that is building a new world order based on solidarity, complementarity.

https://www.telesurtv.net/rusia-y-venez ... sanciones/

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14433
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Wed Jun 12, 2024 2:51 pm

JUNE 12 IS RUSSIA DAY BUT YELTSIN ELECTION OF JUNE 12, 1991, IS NO OCCASION FOR RUSSIANS TO CELEBRATE, NOR HIS DECLARATION OF STATE SOVEREIGNTY OF JUNE 12, 1990*

Image

by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

June 12 marks the anniversary of Boris Yeltsin’s election as President of Russia.

It is no moment for celebration.

The government which he led successfully over the attempted putsch of last August and through the disintegration of the Soviet Union now lacks credible authority in the Russian federation and among its people.

There is no agreement on a constitution to hold the federation together, or to divide the power granted by Russian votes for
president and parliament.

If the 18th century tax revolt known as the Boston Tea Party can be said to have begun the revolution for American independence, then the withholding of taxes by several regions and republics may be the beginning of another Russian revolution — this one against Russia itself.

The reform process which has been the basis of Yeltsin’s popular appeal is out of his control, and the economy he is responsible for is no longer operating rationally or predictably.

These are the claims of economic critics, like his former deputy prime minister, Grigoriy Yavlinskiy. They are also the claims of political critics as diverse in their parliamentary alignments as the constitutionalist Oleg Rumyantsev, and the nationalist Sergei Baburin.

Although the nationalists and their parliamentary allies — amounting to roughly a third of the Congress of Peoples Deputies — have called for the replacement of the government, they have not targeted President Yeltsin directly — not until last Friday.

The question for the President and his supporters is not whether they believe the criticisms of his performance are right or fair, but whether he can survive the situation a simple majority of Russians, and a larger majority of its ruling class, are certain the country now faces.

Those beliefs can be summed up in two convictions:

The government’s loss of authority will come to end, and the economic irrationality also. Fundamental political and economic changes are inevitable.

Whether President Yeltsin is carried off by these changes, whether he chooses to walk away from them, or whether he can survive to lead Russia are the questions everyone asks, and every Russian has the right to answer. But noone can be confident that a new Russian consensus can be agreed, or that the president will be part of it.

Former President Gorbachev is no wiser prophet than others for predicting a shorter rather than a longer time span. Few believe he will be a beneficiary if the prediction he makes to Western visitors of Yeltsin’s demise comes true.

Unfortunately for Yeltsin, his circle has been narrowing; this is customary in conditions of crisis. The strain is also showing in the
President’s demeanour. He can’t be cheered by the good-news advisors, and he can’t avoid hearing the bad news. But even those who are closest to him cannot credibly deny what everyone else believes.

First Deputy Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar has conceded the substance of the economic criticisms. In his most recent interview, he told Izvestia “there is a slump”. He qualified that only by saying “it is so far smaller than had been expected.” He has qualified the economic decline by saying it is “no catastrophe”.

Gaidar concedes the government has lost its political authority. “Virtually no government instructions were complied with”, he said, qualifying that this was in April, at the time of the last Congress. Despite improvement since then, he admits, “there is still no new and sufficiently efficient mechanism for enforcing government decisions.”

Gaidar also acknowledges the unpredictability of the economy and the irrationality of policy-making to deal with it. He qualifies this by saying there “were errors with percentages and dates”. In his opinion, it is the politicians who should be held to promises; professionals and administrators are bound to make misjudgements “when you get down to the practical aspects of programmes.”

What can President Yeltsin resolve to do on this anniversary?

He is grasping at straws if he makes new promises of economic recovery or if he demands new powers. The failure of promises he made a year ago is the reason he lacks the power he wants to exercise now. An autumn referendum would expose this, if he dares to call it.

He is also fooling himself if he believes his appeals to the Western leaders he will be meeting in the next few weeks will extract him, or the country, from its present predicament. A minority of Russians believed this in February; far fewer now.

Russia is going to be forced to look inward, not outward, for the relief of this crisis. No matter what conditions are agreed with the International Monetary Fund, there will be no rescue from the West.

The President has not showed himself to be an introspective man. But he has a talent his predecessor lacked for listening to others. As Russia looks inward to save itself, the best resolution for Yeltsin to make today is to go outside his circle, and perhaps inside himself, to hear what Russians and common sense are saying.
[*] This piece is 32 years old; it was first published on July 10,1992. By that time the Russian Federation had dismantled the Soviet Union, and Boris Yeltsin had replaced Mikhail Gorbachev. The year before,Yeltsin had won election as President of the Russian Republic on June 12, 1991. He polled 58.6% of the first-round vote -- just enough to avoid a runoff against Nikolai Ryzhkov who drew 17.1%; Yeltsin’s number was within the 10% margin he and his handlers were able to fabricate. The date became a national holiday in 1992 when, officially, it commemorated the act of two years before, June 12, 1990. That was the vote of the thousand-member Russian Congress of People’s Deputies to adopt the Declaration of State Sovereignty of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. [/i]

Image

A few days earlier, Yeltsin had taken leadership of the Congress by a vote reported to have been just 50.52%. The Declaration of State Sovereignty started secession from the Soviet Union and Yeltsin’s seizure of power from Gorbachev, as the document promulgated “the supremacy of the RSFSR [Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic] Constitution and laws of the RSFSR throughout the territory of the RSFSR; the effect of acts of the USSR which are contrary to the sovereign rights of the RSFSR shall be suspended by the Republic on its territory.”

Historically, this is the point of the June 12 commemoration, although only 6% of Russians told a Levada Centre poll in June 2015 they recognize it for that; another 33% believed June 12 is an independence day. As the years roll by, for most “Russia Day” is the start of the summer holiday season, like the British Spring Bank Holiday and US Memorial Day held on the last Monday in May. The 2015 poll was the last time the Levada Centre asked Russians what they think of June 12.

President Vladimir Putin has never mentioned Yeltsin's name in his annual Russia Day speech. At the 2019 Kremlin celebration with then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (photo right), Putin recalled "the drastic changes that took place during the 1990s. We remember this hard period well, as everything changed – our economic structure and public and human relations." Since then Putin has omitted even that.

The president’s reason is that Russian sentiment towards Yeltsin has grown steadily more negative than Putin has admitted for himself. According to a Levada poll of February 2023, “the highest rates of positive attitude towards the first president were observed in the first few years after his death in 2007 (about 17%). Then the attitude began to deteriorate again: in December 2015, 14% had a positive attitude towards him, in 2021 – 10%, in January of this year – only 8%. Correspondlngly, the share of respondents who have a negative attitude to the first president of Russia has increased: if in 2010 and 2015 they were about 35%, then in 2021 – 46%, and at the beginning of 2023 – already half. Slightly more than a third (35%) express neutral emotions towards Boris Yeltsin.”

Image
Source: https://www.levada.ru/

On June 12, 2021, Putin said the holiday “symbolises our Fatherland’s contemporary development, as well as its continuous centuries-old path, the grandeur of its history, endeavours, victories and achievements.” His speech now accompanies the annual presentation of Hero of Labour medals and Russian Federation National Awards for individual achievements in science, technology, literature, art, human rights, and philanthropy. “This national holiday,” the president said at the 2023 ceremony, “marks the continuity of the many centuries of our history, the glory and grandeur of our Fatherland, the unity of our multi-ethnic people, our loyalty to our country and our cordial affection for our beloved Motherland.”

On the Telegram channel of Medvedev, the former prime minister, former president says nothing at all about June 12.

https://johnhelmer.net/june-12-is-russi ... more-89981

******

Russian Military Ships and Nuclear Submarine Arrive in Cuba

Image
Kazan Yasen-M submarine. Photo: X/@MarioNawfal

By: teleSUR English

June 12, 2024 Hour: 8:39 am

The detachment will also stop at Venezuelan ports and carry out maritime and air maneuvers in the Caribbean Sea.

On Wednesday, a Russian Navy flotilla is expected to arrive in Havana as part of a scheduled visit that has generated great expectations due to its geopolitical importance.

The oil tanker of the Pashin fleet began at 7:47 local time to pass through the narrow entrance to the bay of the Cuban capital, in front of Old Havana, under a light rain and with Cuban technical support.

This logistics ship is accompanied by the frigate Gorshkov, the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan and the rescue tug Nikolai Chiker, which are scheduled to stop in Havana until June 17.

The U.S. Department of Defense, which claimed to have been following the movements of the flotilla for days, stated that it does not perceive this Russian movement as a threat. However, several American warships were mobilized in the last few hours to closely follow the trajectory of the Russian flotilla, when the ships were closest to the Florida coast.

Washington expects that the Russian detachment will also stop at Venezuelan ports and carry out maritime and air maneuvers during the northern summer in international waters of the Caribbean Sea.


On Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry informed that the flotilla took advantage of its movement through international waters of the Atlantic to carry out exercises that included the virtual launch of “high-precision” missiles.

The Gorshkov frigate began operating in 2018 and has participated in multinational maneuvers in recent years and in the exercise that trained the launch of Tsirkon hypersonic missiles from the sea in 2023. Operational since 2021, the Kazan is a modern nuclear-powered submarine capable of firing cruise missiles.

“None of the Russian ships carry nuclear weapons. The scale does not represent a threat to the region,” the Cuban Armed Forces Ministry stated, highlighting that the presence of Russian ships is a historical practice between countries with “relations of friendship and collaboration.”

Shortly before the visit of the Russian ships to Cuba, President Vladimir Putin announced that he was willing to take “asymmetric measures” after learning that several Western countries were going to allow Ukraine to use the weapons they gave it to attack Russia on its territory. .

In recent years there have been two visits by Russian flotillas, but neither with a nuclear submarine. The last one took place in June 2019, which was also headed by Gorshkov. For the previous one we have to go back to 2013.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/russian- ... e-in-cuba/

Pashinyan will withdraw Armenia from the CSTO
June 12, 16:44

Image

Pashinyan said that he will leave the CSTO when the time comes.
Not official yet, but already open.
Actually, this was the goal of bringing Pashinyan to power.
Having surrendered Karabakh and part of the territory of Armenia, Pashinyan only had to withdraw from the CSTO, deploy NATO troops on the territory of Armenia and squeeze out the Russian base in Gyumri. If this requires giving something else to Azerbaijan, Pashinyan will give everything.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9203213.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14433
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Fri Jun 14, 2024 3:49 pm

The Moscow Exchange has suspended trading in dollars and euros
June 12, 20:23

Image

The Moscow Exchange has suspended trading in dollars and euros

Due to the introduction of restrictive measures by the United States against the Moscow Exchange Group, exchange trading and settlements of deliverable instruments in US dollars and euros are suspended. At the same time, trading on all other exchange segments and on exchange instruments in rubles and other currencies will be carried out as usual. Transactions in the US dollar and euro will continue to be carried out on the over-the-counter market.

To determine the official exchange rates of the US dollar and euro to the ruble, the Bank of Russia will use bank reports and information received from digital platforms of over-the-counter trading, in accordance with Bank of Russia Directive No. 6290-U dated October 3, 2022 “On the procedure for establishing and publishing by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation official exchange rates of foreign currencies against the ruble."

Companies and individuals can continue to buy and sell US dollars and euros through Russian banks. All funds in US dollars and euros in the accounts and deposits of citizens and companies remain safe. For deposits and accounts of citizens and organizations in US dollars and euros, the previous regime for issuing funds established by the Bank of Russia is maintained.

https://cbr.ru/press/pr/?file=638538135666770316OBR.htm - zinc

De-dollarization in practice. In this case, forced. And I remember in the 90s they loved to scold the communists for restrictions on the free circulation of the dollar and the lack of its sale on the stock exchange (as well as the absence of the stock exchanges themselves).

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9203901.html

Google Translator

*****

Protests in Armenia and clashes with police
June 12, 2024
Rybar
Anti-government protests continue in Armenia against the backdrop of the surrender of territories to Azerbaijan. Today there were violent clashes between protes

Image

A photo of an injured man whose hand was torn off has spread online . Later, a video appeared of him being taken into an ambulance, and its employee asked to send two more cars.

55 people sought medical help , reports the Armenian Ministry of Health.

It is reported that about 98 people have been detained. Armenian channels publish videos of protesters being beaten in paddy wagons.

Opposition resources also published photographs of the National Assembly building, where snipers are visible in the windows.

Protests in Armenia are clearly escalating. The harsh use of force by the police may be due to the uncertainty of Pashinyan, who literally has to hide from the crowd of protesters. At the same time, the presence of Americans in Yerevan at the negotiations and their obvious support for the Armenian authorities gives the latter the opportunity to disperse the protests by any means.

https://rybar.ru/protesty-v-armeniii-st ... policziej/

Google Translator

******

Russia-Ukraine war: Moscow’s multi-front military posturing / WION Pulse

The arrival today in Havana of the small Russian naval task force led by the frigate Admiral Gorshkov has attracted media attention around the world, and I was not particularly surprised to be invited by WION, India’s premier English language global broadcast to comment on what they consider to be Russia’s latest escalation in their war with NATO in Ukraine.

See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZYgzWm9EgI

I don’t blame the WION editorial team for cutting my interview by more than 50%, eliminating my introductory remarks which were more far-ranging than is traditional in such video spot interviews.

However, on this proprietary platform I reproduce those opening remarks, because I consider them very germane to the whole question of “escalation” and who is doing what to whom.

I thanked my hosts for mentioning in their remarks on my background that I am also an historian, because that fact conditioned my answer to their question: to be specific, in the historian’s craft we are very interested in the line of causality and in tracing any given event to what preceded it.

With that in mind, I remarked that if you ask any Estonian, Lithuanian or Latvian when the history of the world began, they will instantly put the date at 1939 and mention the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact that resulted in their independent, sovereign and democratic nations being swallowed up by the Soviet Union. They will never take you back in history to tell you that their statehood came about in 1919 after WWI and the collapse of the Russian Empire. They will never tell you that they were part of the Russian Empire from the first quarter of the 18th century up to 1919 as a result of dynastic marriages or military conquest.

So it is with the question of “escalation” by Russia through its various actions, among them the dispatch of the naval task force to Cuba, demonstrating its readiness to use tactical and strategic nuclear arms if its sovereignty is threatened.

From the Russian perspective, these warnings were in response to the belligerent statements and actions coming from Western Europe and the United States in the preceding week, when the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the USA and other allies announced that they were giving Kiev free hands to decide how to use the long-range missiles and other advanced hardware they had delivered to Ukraine as the Zelensky regime sees fit. This means that the Ukrainians are free to strike deep into the Russian heartland using Western hardware.

At the same time in that preceding week, Emanuel Macron of France announced he would he sending Mirage 2005 all-purpose fighter jets to Ukraine and is training their pilots now. France also said it is planning to deploy military instructors inside Ukraine to prepare a brigade for combat against the Russian forces.

It was against this background that the Russians have in the past few days flexed their muscles to give a warning message to Washington.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/06/13/10580/

******

Russia
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 12, 2024
Ana Hurtado

Image
Russians commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII photo: Astana Times

When the world was in agony; when Europe was burning in flames and the great cities were covered in ashes, the Russian people came to lay down blood and life and deliver the rest of us from an evil that could well of lasted more than a hundred years. Of suffering and pain. Hopelessly of loneliness. But loneliness next to what could have been, would be a pleasure. It would be peace.

I was going to write this article much earlier, but I preferred to wait for the European Parliament elections.

Shame, I do not know if that would be the right word. But the Europe that was the cradle of social movements, uprising, enlightenment, holocausts and so many miseries, seems to have forgotten the past.

At a time of constant absence of ideology, this is the punishment that seems to have arrived.

Europe needs Russia and so does the world. As it was needed in the early forties of the last century.

A few days ago, the Russian language day was celebrated on June 6. And in these days I was reflecting with Professor Oscar Villar, a man who teaches me to broaden my knowledge about the history of the country, its current historical context and its changes over time.

Relations between Cuba and the largest country in the world are long-standing and growing stronger. I hope they continue to do so every day.

There are many fanatics on the loose who write on social networks and digital platforms as if they were experts. It is so important to be careful of who issues us information; or at least select which source we are going to consume it from. Information, especially current information, must be extracted from experts, or from counter-hegemonic media that honestly strives to show us the face of the truth that the West does not want us to know.

And in an attempt to learn truth first hand I attended an activity organized by the Technological University of Havana José Antonio Echeverría (CUJAE), in which, among other speakers, Alexander Korendiasev, the first secretary of the Russian Embassy in Cuba, joined Professor Villar.

His lecture was entitled: “The Circular Business of Russophobia”. And after days of this activity there was much to reflect on what was said

In 1991 we all well know that a political change took place with the fall of the USSR, which changed the course of the world. The socialist camp meant prosperity, ties between countries in pursuit of progress and the dignity of men and women, elevated to the highest levels. Not perfect, but perhaps close enough to the term. Taking into account the propagandistic garbage that poured out against it and the human mistakes made, which no one is exempt from committing. They are recognized, accepted and are overcome in order not to repeat them.

It was not perfect, but it was good.

The Russian Revolution came with a strong breath of wind to give oxygen to a people that had been mistreated for centuries. A Revolution, with its five-year plans to which the people gave themselves with conviction (like the sugar harvest in Cuba). When World War II broke out, the USSR was already carrying out its third five-year plan.

Looking at the history of the USSR we can continue to save every day the rest of the revolutions that are there and to come.

In Russia they forgot Lenin. They started from the government to dismantle Soviet symbols, for example, to speak ill of Yuri Gagarin.

Gagarin was a boy who symbolically was everything. A peasant who reached space. Humility and development in a person loved by all.

Boris Yeltsin, his alcoholism and his wickedness (surely directed by foreign agencies), began from his executive to question everything Soviet, climbing on top of the mistakes of Mikhail Gorbachev the poor wimp who proceeded him.

The Soviet Union was wiped out with drunkenness and shots of vodka in front of a people that supported its history, but with the pressure of capitalism knocking on the door of the country’s borders in order to make clear one of its first symbols of cultural colonization: the opening of the first McDonald’s, and hundreds of people lining up to get inside in Moscow’s Pushkin Square.

They even changed the national anthem, for a new one with odes to the gods, which fortunately with Putin in power, was replaced by another one created by the father of filmmaker Nikita Mikhalkov, who had already created the 1943 anthem.

Barbarity after barbarity on the international scene in the 1990s while Cuba was plunged into a dark special period, remaining “alone-solita” as Fidel said on the Malecon, but well knowing that this was not a soft people.

In Russia, people began to become disenchanted even though they were socialists, with the poisonous danger of the shoddy propaganda of “in and out”.

Yeltsin and his ilk, among so many thousands of other issues, left a divided country and gave rise to the Chechen war. As time went by, that division was replaced by unity, an economy saved and morale and dignity as high as the peaks of St. Basil’s Cathedral.

Sometimes there is something that is curious to me and at the lecture at CUJAE, Alexander Korendiasev made me think about it and I never forget: that you are studying means that someone is paying for your studies. That you are being treated by doctors means that someone is paying those doctors. It’s not that you deserve it because you deserve it. It is because there is a state behind you that makes an effort for its citizens and provides them with social services, with the effort that this entails.

I think about so many ungrateful citizens who criticize, without reasoning, the free services in Cuba, a country that is under an iron blockade, but is a cradle of medicine, with its material deficiencies. Without understanding that if in the United States they break a leg, cut themselves in an accident and do not have money to pay for the operation, they might get gangrene because of the possibility of not being able to pay for private health care. For that it is necessary to go out into the world and see, or to have class consciousness and logic that allows us to understand why the planet is and works as it does.

And just as there are capitalist and fascist critics to all those who defend themselves against attacks, turning history upside down, they did the same to Russia. In 2014 the picture changes and it is the first time in the post-Soviet era that the country has to defend its interests as a nation in the face of the Crimean conflict. All European civilizations have wanted to take it over throughout history.

Starting from the fact that the USSR was divided into fifteen independent republics, each with its own national ideology, the case of Ukraine was different. Ukraine did not have this national ideology, because it always belonged to Russia. In fact, Russia was born in Kiev, the well-known: Kievan Rus.

Russian was spoken in Ukraine until the end of the 19th century, and then the Ukrainian language was commonly spoken. In Soviet times in the USSR the languages of its constituent peoples were respected, especially in the western part of the country. Hungarian, Ukrainian, etc. were spoken.

How is it possible that now on the territory of Ukraine it is forbidden to speak any language other than Ukrainian? Who are the tyrants? If this were the only aspect of their tyranny?

Ukraine, in order to develop a nationalist ideology, took examples from fascist politicians in Europe who promoted “anti-Russian” policy, from people who once even went so far as to collaborate with Hitler’s forces. People who in Nuremberg were accused of genocide.

That is why the modern Ukrainian state sought its identity in this type of characters giving rise in time to a plague of fascists within the military sector of the country and infecting the armed forces of the country with these ideas.

Nazis appearing in the military forces in Ukraine already influencing its policy.

A referendum was held for the independence of Crimea from Ukraine, which won positively with more than 95 percent of the votes. With international observers certifying that it was not forced, and that it was transparent.

Russia, in the face of non-compliance with the agreements, defended its interests and those of its people, as any land with a memory would do.

As any mother would do. As it is appropriate to do with a people who said in a referendum almost one hundred percent, that they want to be Russians.

Russia was the mother of war children and Spanish Republicans, of so many Cuban students who came to their lands with everything paid for. Of thousands and millions of people who came to her heart to nourish themselves with all the best of her, and she welcomed them, asking nothing in return.

In a world of hyper imperialism, where socialism seems far away, we must know who is with the good and who is with the evil. To be clear about the sense of the historical moment and the current conceptions.

Right now our greatest enemy is Zionism and the American government that finances it. Russia is no longer the USSR, but it is worthy and stands up to all those who incarnate evil right now. And that as far as it is possible, in this world of madness and aberration, we can still consider her a mother.

Source: Cubadebate

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/06/12/russia/

******

Let Me Remind You...

... that Soviet Navy was constantly present in Cuba through 1960s to 1980s. Visits have been regular and even one of the classes of my naval academy went on navigation cruise Kronstadt-Cienfuegos-Cartagena in 1970s. Here is one of the missile cruisers of pr. 58 leaving Cuba in 1969.

Image

It is absolutely normal for the US to react by tracking these ships.



Obviously, the class of these ships--both carriers of hypersonic missiles and extremely long range advanced stand-off weapons under present circumstances with the US unleashing a proxy war against Russia is concerning for the US. It takes 3M22 Zircon about 9 minutes to fly to, God forbid, Norfolk if launched anywhere from Bahamas area.
But I do not take these concerns too seriously because as a former naval professional I totally understand, as do people in the US Navy, it is what is NOT demonstrated by Russia that should be concerning for them and these are Russian Navy's nuclear subs which patrol off both US shores and do it in a fully clandestine manner. Their tasks, whatever they are, are to remain invisible first and foremost. Is Russia making a public point in Cuba? Absolutely, including highly publicized exercises on simulation of missile launches to the ranges beyond 600 kilometers with "autonomous targeting", meaning that targeting is obtained purely through own sensors and helicopter, not from the external targeting such as would be targeting from Liana satellite constellation. Gorshkov's Monolit radar in passive mode can track surface targets up to 450 kilometers. So, we may only speculate how such a long range targeting could be obtained autonomously.

It is clear that Gorshkov carries latest version of venerable Ka-27, Ka-27M.



The "M" version of Ka-27 carries new radar and extends surface search capabilities dramatically. So, most likely, it was Ka-27M (operational range 980 kilometers) which could have provided such targeting.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/06 ... d-you.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14433
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Sat Jun 15, 2024 3:06 pm

RUSSIAN WINE BOOM FOLLOWS THE WAR

Image

by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

Wine, and the money to spend on drinking it, are growing at an unprecedented pace in Russia. For a country at war in Europe this has not happened in modern times, and probably not since the ancient Roman emperors and medieval English kings arranged for their city fountains to flow with wine in celebration of military victories and coronations.

The surge in wine consumption signals the growing confidence of Russian consumers in their future. A parallel surge in wine imports since April is also a signal that the Russian Finance Ministry aims to raise taxes on this good cheer.

In 2023, 320 million litres of still and fortified wine were imported to Russia, which was 4.4% more than in 2022, according to a study by the large Moscow importer, distributor, and retailer, the Luding group. According to other market reports, by the end of last year the largest supermarket groups had increased their imports of wine by 7% compared to the year before. The X5 group, for example, which operates the Pyaterochka and Perekrestok stores, reported an 18% annual increase; the Magnit chain was up 83%.

This year the rate of increase in wine imports has been accelerating. Through April, the Russian Customs figures show a 20% rate of increase in the volume of wine imports compared to the first four months of 2023. The most noticeable surge was observed in April, when twice as much wine was imported as a year ago.

Part of the reason is that the Russian war economy is now generating significantly faster growth in consumer income than the rate of inflation. Adjusted for that, real wages grew 0.3% between March 2022 and March 2023. This is after a prolonged decline in real wages between 2013 and 2021. In the first quarter of this year, January through March, real disposable income – a slightly different metric measured by the state statistics agency Rosstat — jumped 5.8% compared to the year before. This was a relative slowdown compared to the last quarter of 2023, when real disposable income was up 7% year on year. Rosstat is reporting also that real wages grew by a record 13.3% in May 2023. The agency’s measurement reflected the jump in war-related civilian sector wages and in payments to military personnel. Pensions, by contrast, were shrinking slightly in real terms.

The government is now estimating the full-year 2023 rate of real income growth at 5.4%; in 2024 at 2.8%, and next year at 2.8%. Consumer demand is predicted to rise in step.

Despite Russian casualties at the front already running ahead of the ten-year Soviet Afghanistan War, the Russian war economy, and the impact of the NATO sanctions war, are paying a large domestic dividend – and not only at the wine shop.

Read the twenty-year archive on the Russian wine business, as well as Russian beer, vodka, mead, cider, and cognac.

Image
Image
Top: April 16, 2023.
Bottom: September 21, 2022.

The bigger part of the reason for the April wine surge, industry experts acknowledge, is that importers and wholesalers were anticipating the government will introduce a prohibitive 200% penalty duty on wine from the unfriendly NATO states – France, Spain, Italy – and also an increase in alcohol excise tax.

This penalty on imports of wines from western Europe is being promoted by the domestic wine lobby, the Association of Winegrowers and Winemakers, to encourage new investment in domestic vineyards and wine production in the southwest and Crimea. The lobby proposal is being considered by the State Duma, but no legislative or government action has been decided yet.

Customs statistics of the wine surge so far this year show that 32% of the volume has come from Italy, 12% from Spain, 7% from France, and 5% from Portugal. The government has already introduced smaller penalty import duties on wine and other alcohol imports from the NATO states, and these have begun to curtail consumer purchase of French, Spanish and Italian wines, adding marginally to sales of Russian wine; in physical volume, these now amount to more than 51% of the consumption market. Georgian wine is increasing its market share significantly.

Starting on May 1, the Finance Ministry introduced a sharp increase in excise tax on wine and other alcohol. The new excise tax rate on wine is Rb108 rubles per litre, which is more than triple the previous rate of Rb34 per litre. Anticipating the new tax and the rise in bottle prices, importers decided to stock up on imported wine in April, according to industry sources.

The impact has been double-barreled: Russians consumers have begun switching from the higher-priced wine from the NATO states, especially from Italy, to lower priced wine from Georgia, South Africa, Chile, and Argentina. In parallel, there has been a sharp increase in customs revenues; these have jumped fourfold between January and May of this year, compared to the same period of 2023.

Image
Source: https://www.rbc.ru/

A new report by the Luding group, published earlier this month by RBC, reveals how the structure of wine imports in Russia has been changing in the war conditions since February 2022. According to Luding, last year 37% of the wine on retail shelves in Russia was imported from the hostile states; their share of the market had been growing from 31% in 2021 to 33% in 2022.

On March 15, 2022, the European Union banned the supply of very high-priced wines (above €300 per bottle) to Russia, but this had next to no impact in the Russian market. Then on August 1, 2023, the Russian government raised the import duty on NATO wine from 12.5% to 20% of value, with a minimum impost of €1.50 per bottle. For cheap European-source wines, in effect this amounted to a duty of 100% to 200%. The new wine lobby proposal is to impose a 200% duty across the full range of imported wine.

Image
Source: https://www.rbc.ru/
“The most intensive import growth occurred in the first half of 2023. In the second half of the year, the increase in duties and sanctions restrictions had the expected effect: if there was an intensive growth in the first half of the year, then in the second half of the year there was a drop relative to similar indicators in 2022," Luding reports. According to the study, 43% more sparkling and still wine was imported to Russia in the first half of 2023 than in the same period of 2022, and 17.5% less in the second half of the year.

Image
Source: https://www.rbc.ru/
According to the Luding report, 73 million litres of sparkling wine were imported to Russia in 2023, which was 2.9% more than in 2022. The share of Russian sparkling wines by the end of 2023 amounted to 71% in volume. The main importers in this wine category have been Italy — 50.6 million litres in 2023, France, 12.5 million literes and Spain, 7.8 million litres. Compared to 2022, shipments from Italy fell by 2%; from France shipments increased by 20%; from Spain there was no change. Russians prefer semi-sweet white sparkling wine; this type accounted for 48% of sales in 2023, while dry or brut came to 25%. Over the past two years, brut has become more popular (a change of 3 percentage points), and semi-sweet has been losing ground (by 5 percentage points). Luding concludes that "sparkling wine imports will not likely increase in the coming years, as the top importing countries comprise the unfriendly countries. An increase in the volume of imports of sparkling wine from friendly countries is predicted (because networks and distributors will look for replacement options), but their share will remain insignificant; the main role in this segment will be played by Russian manufacturers.”

Wine industry sources quoted by RBC are predicting a sharp drop in wine imports for the remainder of this year, and the reorientation of supply to friendly state suppliers like Argentina, Chile and South Africa, duties on which have not been raised. South Africa is also predicted to move ahead of Chile, along with Georgia.

The experts also agree that the combination of the new excise tax and new import duty will “now lead to the fact that imported wines will be very uncompetitive on the shelf in terms of price. Prosecco, which an importer can buy for €2.8-€2.9 per bottle, will eventually turn out to be closer to Rb1,300 rubles at retail. At a price of up to 1,000 rubles. you can buy a very good Russian wine, which will be competitive not only in price, but will also be very acceptable in quality.”

What happens next in the Russian wine market?

Answers to that question follow in an interview with Kommersant by Anatoly Korneyev, one of the founders of Simple Group, a leading Moscow importer, distributor and retailer which has been in the wine business since 1994. The interview, published last week, has been translated verbatim. Illustrations have been added.
Image

June 6, 2024
When wine prices rise, per capita consumption falls —
and this is frightening
Interview of wine retailer Anatoly Korneyev by Ilya Sizov

Anatoly Korneyev, Vice President of Simple Group, discusses the Russian wine market What will happen to the prices of imported wine? What are the prospects for Russian winemaking? And what is actually a threat to domestic wine producers?

Q. Last year, Russian wine entered the top 3 in sales in the Simple group, second only to Italy and France. Is it not the case, or is it not only that access to imported wine has somehow become more difficult? And in your opinion, does Russia have the opportunity to become a full-fledged wine country?

A: Not only an opportunity, we actually have already become one. We are at the very beginning of the road, and it is for this reason that, most likely, sooner or later the third place should turn into the first. This is not a political slogan, but an absolute opportunity that coincides with the will of the state, which is very actively investing in this industry. It is the most advanced sector of the economy today due to the fact that subsidies are given very successfully; moreover, the state also supports communication.

THE TOP FIFTEEN RUSSIAN VINEYARDS
by location and area in cultivation (hectares)

Image
Source: https://ru.wikipedia.org/
* For analysis of the business of Abrau-Durso, click to read.

Image
Source: company website, The Ariant group, which owns Yuzhnaya, is under court-ordered re-nationalization of the assets of former owners, Yury Antipov and Alexander Aristov.

How have Russian winemakers increased production volumes? It so happens that we are now in a closed loop — in this regard, of course, winemaking supports domestic tourism and vice versa It is probably much more comfortable everywhere in the world where wine and tourism go side by side. In France, for example, wine is responsible for 2% of GDP. But if you take related sectors of the economy, such as tourism or gastronomy, restaurants, HoReCa [Hotel, Restaurant and Catering Industry] and so on, this figure turns into 5% of GDP.

Image
The Massandra vineyard, a leading tourist destination in Crimea. For a sample, click to follow.

Q: And what is the situation with imported wine now? What has changed in two years? Have new partners have appeared? Did you have to resort to parallel imports?

A: Surprisingly, the market has remained stable so far, despite the fact that we have, of course, healthy protectionism. I would really like to hope that prudence and logic will prevail over emotions when we talk about unfriendly countries. We need to keep some hope that we will not burn all the bridges — this is economic diplomacy. Of course, agriculture, on the one hand, is the most vulnerable environment, because any winemaker depends heavily on uncontrolled weather conditions, crop failures, droughts and so on. On the other hand, the consumer market is very strictly regulated. In Russia, the situation looks like this: the average price of Russian wine sold on the shelf is 520 rubles — this is Rosstat data. One can hope that the Russian consumer will follow all the changes that occur due to the increase in duties and excise taxes, and will be ready to invest, vote with his ruble for Russian wine. You can look at the example of the excise tax: not all agricultural enterprises in the Russian Federation have a benefit embedded in the price, because very often they divide their business according to the law. There are agricultural divisions which produce grapes, and then they transfer this to enterprises which produce wine and commercialize it. And here the VAT will arrive together with the excise tax, and the so-called peasant farms (KFH), which are exempt from paying this very excise tax, will still receive VAT. This is 20 rubles, not so much, but if you think in the logic of cost, 200 rubles. 20 rubles of additional encumbrance is 10%. That is, we are gradually increasing the price.

Why are Poland and Lithuania halting cargo at the border? Returning to your question about imported wines, for each wine crossing the customs border of the Russian Federation, we get 290 rubles of extra charge. This figure consists of the excise tax, which has been increased three times; the import duty which seems to have been increased by only 7.5%, but there is the minimum cut-off at the border at €1.50 That is, all imported wine up to €7 in purchase, these are wines such as chianti, petit chablis, to which we have accustomed Russians for 30 years, will receive this set of cost additions. When there was prosecco, for example, at 900 rubles per bottle, it was a sought-after product, but now an additional 300 rubles on the bottle price transfer it to a completely different marketing and price segment. 95% of all wine retailed in the Russian Federation has a bottle price of up to one thousand rubles, that is to say, there is not much price elasticity in the market demand. In this sense, imports are still preserved, and the good news is that, most likely, due to the fact that 2022 was a favourable year, in 2023 everyone was preparing to increase duties first, then excise taxes, and so everyone bought and stocked. And the first one who did it very aggressively was retail. These were not distributors, because they don’t want to sit on large stocks – this is expensive. And retail needed to keep the consumer feeling calm and smooth out the price changes. Globally, there are no big problems with imports today. We are all provided with goods, everything is safe, everything is wonderful, no one is looking for new countries, because there is stable demand, but changes await us. My forecast is that you and I will live until about January 1, 2025 with the old prices. This feeling of comfort will remain in high season. But then inevitably we will notice that the price is changing, and the difference will be noticeable.

When wine prices are constantly rising, per capita consumption is falling, and this is frightening, because we live in a space where all alcohol-containing products are divided into three large blocks. Just now wine has an official consumption figure of 6.9 litres per capita per year, and if you subtract fruit wines and wine-containing drinks with the addition of ethyl alcohol from that, leaving pure wine, then there will be even less; this compares with 57 litres of beer consumption per capita. In large absolute numbers, it looks like this: in Russia, we consume about 800 million litres of wine annually with 7.5 billion litres of beer, and this is a big threat. A significant market share is being taken away from the most professional, most profitable category for the state, because 9% of the wines alone are responsible for 21% of the state’s profitability.

In reverse, it looks completely different. Beer is less substantial, less profitable. That’s why we say: cancel VAT on Russian wine, you will lose 50 billion rubles. And they can be compensated by adding only 10 rubles to a bottle of beer in the form of an excise tax – by redistributing the fees, you will receive the same amount of revenue.

Image
https://www.statista.com/

Q: You spoke about reasonable protectionism, so is the 200% duty on wine from NATO countries reasonable protectionism?

A: Of course not. If you look at how the market works, you will see that already today there is a change in price, which so far is at least 290 rubles extra per bottle, and this will cause a reduction of demand and sales. For example, just in the prosecco category we have counted minus 35%; in the category of wines such as chianti, rioja and so on, which are purchased at a price of about €7, you are getting a consumption decline of 50%. Let’s say this is somehow compensated by price elasticity or customer loyalty to brands. But this is a large amount, because unfriendly countries are currently responsible for 75% of all imported wine.

Why has the import of wine from abroad increased dramatically? Let’s say I am a wine producer in Georgia — I understand the political regime, the background associated with the absence of duties. At the same time, there are a lot of producers of good Georgian wine who cannot enter the Russian market. Due to the way the protection regime was formed, including the so-called SGRs [state certificate confirming health and quality control] which do not allow some producers to enter the market, and old producers still bring tonnes of totally banal, not the best wines of Georgia here.

Of course, we need to conduct this dialogue very rationally here. I started talking about Georgia because it is duty-free, but it is now the first in the list of countries in the import category, overtaking Italy, which has remained the absolute market leader for 30 years in a row. And here it is necessary to find a dialogue, to look into a new way for quality control of the Georgian wine coming here. This should not be protective duties, but some new special approach by the regulator.
LEAD PICTURE: Junior officers pour sparkling wine into a helmet during the graduation ceremony for servicemen of Moscow Higher Military Command School in front of Saint Basil's Cathedral on Red Square in Moscow, July 2021.
LESSONS: from a lifetime of drinking rosé and sparkling wine, read Dunce Upon a Time, chapter 8.

https://johnhelmer.net/russian-wine-boo ... more-89990

******

NICOLAI PETRO & ARTA MOEINI: THE FOLLY OF A NEW CONTAINMENT
JUNE 13, 2024
By Nicolai Petro & Arta Moeini, The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy, 5/9/24

The 2020s have seen the return and new appeal of “containment” thinking in U.S. grand strategy. Facing the erosion of unipolarity, the rise of China as a global power, and the newfound assertiveness of other regional and major powers such as Russia and Iran, some American strategists have resurrected and retooled this familiar Cold War concept. For instance, a recent Foreign Affairs article, “To Prevail, Washington Must Revive Containment”, proposes that America deal with its adversaries, especially Russia, through a “new containment”.

By advancing a particular reading of the original containment doctrine, the authors suggest a long-term U.S. strategy that will (1) create a cordon sanitaire around Russia globally while avoiding direct conflict, (2) contest Russian influence in the Global South through development assistance, trade, and investment, and (3) simultaneously contain China as well as Russia. According to the authors, all these objectives could be accomplished by demanding that more of Europe’s military expenditures be marshaled against Russia so that America’s resources can subsequently be shifted to the Indo-Pacific region to counter China.

Such an approach would also pave the way for Ukrainian “victory”, the authors claim, if not through the recapture of lost territory, then through Ukraine’s military and political integration with the West. This would leave Russia dealing with the long-term consequences of a failed invasion, which might just lead to the type of problems that contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union after Afghanistan (one can only imagine how thrilled the Ukrainians will be with this comparison). Furthermore, the authors hope that persistent sanctions on Russia will eventually create an economic crisis of the kind “the Soviet Union experienced in the 1980s,” weakening the country’s resolve. Despite favoring containment, however, the authors suggest that the U.S. and Russia should still find a way to have meaningful dialogues on arms control, cyber-warfare, and regional conflicts, and even cooperate on issues such as climate change.

Such talk of New Containment seems like a wasteful exercise of pouring new wine into old wineskins and is increasingly fanciful given the current trajectory of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Fully assessing the problems of New Containment, however, requires a firm grasp of the older, Cold War containment model and the different types of containment strategies one could adopt.

Containments Old and New
Firstly, the Old Containment made strategic sense for the West because the alliance faced a military rival that was highly selective about where it actually intervened, not to mention one that did not threaten our core interests. Since both sides were equally concerned about avoiding threats to the core interests of the other side, our counter-measures to Soviet expansionism could be varied. Initially, Washington focused its resources on promoting economic development and strengthening the political stability of its important allies in key regions. As they grew more confident, American policymakers also adopted an indirect military approach that deliberately avoided or minimized the risk of direct superpower confrontation—orchestrating proxy wars in specific geopolitical chokepoints where (with few major exceptions such as Vietnam) our power projection capabilities were generally superior to those of the USSR.

Today, however, NATO is attempting to project power into areas where Russian power projection capacity is practically unlimited, and which Russia has repeatedly declared to be of vital interest to its national security. It has also demonstrated in Ukraine that it is willing to defend these interests at the cost of tens of thousands of Russian lives, and even near-total isolation from the West. The risks associated with countering Russia’s “escalation dominance”—the notion that, in regions adjacent to it, Russia has an insurmountable military and logistical advantage over its rivals—wisely deterred the Obama administration from direct and overt intervention in Ukraine in 2014. Such careful and sensible risk management appears to be wholly missing from the outlook of “new containment” proponents.

Secondly, various countries agreed with Washington’s Old Containment policy, because they regarded the West as offering a superior socio-economic model and the potential for economic prosperity, particularly by the 1980s. Most importantly, America and its allies enjoyed a monopoly over access to cutting-edge technologies, which developing countries desperately needed. Today, that is no longer the case. A growing number of countries are willing and eager to invest in alternative political and economic models, such as the BRICS+, that they believe better serve their interests.

Thirdly, the Old Containment’s solution to what George Kennan deemed the USSR’s “implacable” ideological challenge offered hope to the Russians themselves, rather than demonizing them. Containment anticipated the fall of communism in the Soviet bloc but promised their people eventual reintegration with the Western community of nations: it represented a ray of light at the end of a dark tunnel. The post-communist era would signify a return to normalcy, with even Russia welcomed into the global community of nations. Today, given the Manichaean portrayals of our strategic conflict with Russia, this possibility looks increasingly difficult to achieve. Western publics are being encouraged to reject all things Russian, and even to recast elements of Russian culture as originally belonging to other countries. The objective now, it sadly seems, is to erase the memory of Russians having ever been part of Europe and Western culture. While this is probably not the intent of the authors of the Foreign Affairs piece, it will be an almost inevitable consequence of any New Containment policy.

Whereas the Old Containment could appeal to the patriotism of average Russians, by pointing out, as the late Alexander Solzhenitsyn often did, that it was communism that had prevented Russians from being able to worship as they choose, express their political beliefs, or take pride in their history, the New Containment denies them any accomplishments at all, leaving Russian patriots without even the prospect of future partners in the West. The New Containment thus suffers from a devastating absence of any hopeful vision of the future. Were Kennan alive today, we suspect he would advise Western leaders that, while they should denounce Russian aggression, they should be very careful to avoid condemning in the same breath the entirety of Russian art, culture, history, and religion. Indeed, Kennan might have counseled the transatlantic elites to laud Russia’s civilizational contributions to the human story, and stress their anticipation of a time when these achievements could once again be celebrated as part of the West’s common cultural heritage.

It remains to be seen whether current efforts in the West (and more recently in Russia) to simply erase that shared European heritage will succeed, but its immediate result has been to solidify the view in Russia that this is a struggle that it cannot afford to lose. It has also created a new reservoir of sympathy for Russia in the non-Western World, which has long been subjected to similar deculturation and dehumanization by Western elites.

In Russia, and indeed much of the world, the absence of any positive vision beyond containment that would eventually reintegrate Russia confirms that what we are witnessing is a last-ditch effort to preserve the dominance of the liberal international order, now euphemistically referred to as “the rules-based order”. While the ruling class in select nations may buy into this approach, hoping to ride the West’s coattails and thereby maintain themselves in power, one would be hard-pressed to find many leaders committing to such a reactionary vision over the long term.

Different Containments
To better understand the dangers inherent in the New Containment, we must also shed the mythology surrounding its current usage and recover what it meant historically and its varied forms.

Back in the Cold War era, there were two iterations of Containment used by America’s Cold Warriors. The first, as proposed by Kennan himself and repeatedly clarified in the intervening decades, was about “the political containment of a political threat” posed by the aggressive global expansionism of Soviet ideology and its universalist eschatology. Kennan, a classical realist, “recognized the limitations of a force-based approach” to political and ideological challenges and “worried about overly-broad and militaristic definitions of U.S. interests.” The second strand, which became the dominant approach in Washington after the Korean War and was promoted by the more hawkish strategists like Nitze, interpreted Containment in global, military, and strategic terms. While the former sought to contain Soviet territorial expansion by neutralizing the appeal of Soviet ideology and the USSR’s propaganda in Western societies, the latter relied on the threat of military confrontations across the globe just short of nuclear war.

By the 1980s, with the rise of Ronald Reagan and Neoconservatism in the United States, Containment was dovetailed by liberalism, which sought to use America’s global image and galvanizing soft power to internally transform Soviet culture and society through persistent campaigns hyping the glamour of the Western way of life. “Rollback”, an aggressive variant of military containment strategy that created global flashpoints against which the Soviets became increasingly over-extended, was thus combined with an expanded and deliberate push for a cultural capture of the USSR by Western values, the spread of which the Soviets could hardly contain. This proved a successful recipe for dismantling the USSR, but it had the long-term cost of recasting Western societies themselves in terms of an ideology, that of “liberalism”.

Kennan’s original intuition—also reflected later by French social scientist Emmanuel Todd who predicted the fall of the USSR—was that the internal contradictions and societal dislocations inherent in Soviet ideology would eventually cause its downfall. All the West had to do, therefore, was to carry on long enough for that ideology to self-destruct under the weight of its own problems. It was Kennan’s particular view that, once this transformation had occurred, and the communist regime was overthrown, it would be wise to leave Russia alone—to give it time to heal until it could re-emerge as a normal, non-ideological, Great Power. But America’s descent into ideology in the intervening years made that a moot prospect, and Washington instead sought in earnest to liberalize and Americanize post-Soviet societies.

As such, since the end of the Cold War, we have slowly witnessed the genesis of a third kind of Containment, mostly theorized outside of the West, that interprets the concept in civilizational terms. The supposed goal of this new variant of containment is to defend or inoculate traditional and non-Western societies against the homogenizing force of Western progressive values and the deracinating effects of the liberal form of life. This civilizational containment model has only accelerated in the aftermath of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The upshot is that, while Western leaders have employed the language of “clash of civilizations” to paint Russia-West relations in ideological binaries as a contest of “democracy” vs. “authoritarianism”, Kremlin-friendly Russian elites such as Aleksander Dugin have begun to identify Russia as a civilizational Katechon meant to contain the spread of liberal Western ideology (which ironically brings to mind the earlier liberal resistance against the spread of Leninism).

Although a defense of cultural particularity against the modern onslaught of Western universalism informed the original appeal of civilizational containment, the perception in Russia of a Manichaean and liberal Western crusadism is now producing, as Maria Engstrom has observed, an equally Manichaean reaction couched in Russia’s own Christian messianic tradition that also sees the world in stark black and white terms. This new ideological framing increasingly pathologizes the initially non-aggressive form of cultural realism that was adopted by Russian intellectuals to affirm and defend the distinctiveness of Russian civilization, allowing Russian hawks to justify “a new wave of militarization and anti-Western sentiment” in Russia.

This unfortunate development ultimately poses a far greater challenge for the West than simple strategic competition among great powers, particularly as each side seems to be increasingly defining the ideological/civilizational encroachment of the other as an existential threat to itself. On the one hand, Russia (along with many other regional and civilizational powers in the Global South) aims to protect its cultural sovereignty; on the other, the West seems to regard any resistance to its cultural hegemony as reactionary, revisionist, and adversarial. Furthermore, the fact that the West threatens the so-called rogue states with an ever-expanding list of generally ineffective or counterproductive sanctions has also put into doubt the supremacy of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

As Europe uses the war in Ukraine to establish its territorial expanse to the exclusion of Russia, and Moscow turns increasingly hostile to the West, the schism between Russia and Europe appears to be calcifying. A potential ontological othering between Russia and the West would create a permanent us vs. them dynamic that could raise anti-Westernism in Russia and Russophobia in the West, reducing both civilizations into ideological effigies justifying endless cycles of conflict and escalation.

Confronting this bleak possibility—especially in a multicivilizational-multipolar world order that is currently taking shape—necessitates, therefore, abandoning the exhausted, antiquated containment framework for a fundamentally new approach informed by cultural realism: one that affirms both the uniqueness of different forms of life and their plurality, and which aims for a global modus vivendi based on strategic empathy, civilizational engagement, and diplomacy.

From Containment to Concert of Civilizational Powers
The advocates of a New Containment yearn to restore the Cold War’s supposedly Golden Age of relatively peaceful discontent in which a permanent quest for global hegemony appeared both normal and possible to attain. The closest the Western and Soviet elites ever came to such coexistence, however, was during the brief détente of the Nixon era. The rest of the time, both sides were plagued by neuroses and anxieties that they sought to suppress by spending more and more money on their respective military establishments. The comforting familiarity of this remedy forms, perhaps, a large part of containment’s appeal today.

Nevertheless, it is important to remember that, by the end of the 1990s, the two inspirational godfathers of containment, Kennan and Nitze, both strongly opposed NATO expansion and warned against adopting an aggressive stance against Russia. They saw these policies as undermining half a century of painstaking efforts to cultivate in Russia the view that the West was ultimately not its enemy even if it did not always have the most friendly or honorable of intentions. Today, however, our policies have left us both overextended and with few friends inside Russia (and similarly in China).

The West’s obsession with the complete military defeat of Russia in Ukraine makes it glaringly obvious, in the rest of the world if not in Washington, that this is a fight to preserve America’s global dominance. Under the veil of moralistic and rhetorical language lies a contest for expanding the West’s power and sphere of influence, not values. Moreover, the view that Ukraine must continue to fight, no matter the costs, rather than negotiate for peace, brings to mind the famous quote of an American Major after the battle of Ben Tre, Vietnam, that “it became necessary to destroy the town to save it.”

The truth is that the Uniparty in Washington is still wedded to the idea of global hegemony, setting the ultimate aim of U.S. grand strategy in terms of maintaining an unchallenged global position—as the world’s sole permanent superpower. The bipartisan consensus in the Beltway continues to insist, despite all evidence to the contrary, that America can achieve this impossible target by weakening our great power competitors through war and conflict. The trouble, as George Washington presciently warned, is that strategic entanglement in such distant conflicts actually weakens us in the process.

Russia, after all, is already reduced to a regional power that is struggling even to retain its sphere of influence in its near-abroad. Russia is not the Soviet Union, nor is it a great power: it is nonsensical to marshal resources to try to “contain” an already-diminished power. By insisting on Containment in this new strategic environment, we reveal ourselves to be guided by our ideological and ontological constructs instead of reality, while manufacturing security dilemmas that have real, lasting consequences. We also convey to the Russians that we seek their total subordination to American (Western) interests, in much the same manner that the defeated Axis powers were subordinated to the United States after the Second World War. Such a Western posture only makes the ongoing conflict appear more existential for Russia, as a fight for the very survival of its way of life.

Containment, old or new, therefore functions on antiquated presumptions about how the world used to work. It perpetuates two false narratives: 1) that Moscow has no agency or strategic autonomy and can only ever react to Western policies, and 2) that Russian ontological insecurity in relation to Western actors is unimportant in the formation of Russian strategy and geopolitical behavior. These assumptions are compounded by the blithe premise that Russia, despite every evidence to the contrary, will suffer irreparable losses if isolated by the West, and therefore must eventually yield to our will. Beneath the containment logic, there also exists an equally fanciful belief that China and BRICS+ nations will also eventually be forced to see the world as we do.

This is all wishful thinking. By attempting to isolate Russia, we have managed to isolate ourselves. Not only has Russia decisively turned its back on the current generation of Western leaders, but it is fast forging new relations and bonds with the rest of the world. The new global dynamic is accelerating the Great Transition to multipolarity and will increasingly undermine Western influence if it fails to adapt to this new world, ending not only its geopolitical but also its cultural hegemony. A Zeitenwende indeed!

New Containment cannot meet the challenge of a changing world order and a new balance of power that benefits Russia, China, Iran, and the other middle powers in the “non-West”, because it is out of step with the new structural realities—accelerated by multipolarity and our own highly costly and myopic strategic culture. It is also bound to fail, because, fundamentally, as power becomes more evenly distributed in a multiplex system, a shrinking fraction of the world cannot contain the whole.

There is a better way to enhance both American security and global stability that abandons the familiar but problematic logic of bloc-thinking and its zero-sum framing of the world for a cultural realism that emphasizes global cultural pluralism, the importance of dialogue and engagement among civilizations, mutual recognition of interest, and strategic empathy. Building on what Richard Hass and Charles Kupchan have called a “global concert of powers”, such a realist and interest-based, neo-Metternichian approach prioritizing a global equilibrium could give way to a “concert of civilizations” that advances peaceful co-existence and global stability in the multipolar world.

How to develop this new strategic mindset, that reconceives America’s role in the world in alignment with the “Concert”, would require a cultural reset as much as anything. But that is a topic for future discussion. For now, though, we must create space for diplomacy and engage in dialogue with our adversaries to resolve the ongoing global conflicts that threaten to spiral out of control—to allow us to reach that time of fundamental reconceptualization in one piece.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/06/nic ... ntainment/

Pretty good, however Alexander Solzhenitsyn was a lying douche bag. And the multi-polar world cannot but lead to full blown imperialist competition from the first rank 'players', better than US hegemony but no picnic. With China as a leading light perhaps the worst can be avoided.

******

Alex And Alexander...

... give a good talk about Russia's real economy.



The only point of contention is the size of... American economy most of which is reported from the service sector, real estate and other financial indices. It is definitely not $23 trillion and it is dwarfed by the economy of China. The structure matters here, and while still significant, US real sector, real industries, shrunk in the last 25 years dramatically, if not catastrophically. The hint is, of course, Russia producing MORE steel and iron than the US, and producing about 70% of energy of the US. Energy consumption in MTOE (Million Tons Oil Equivalent) for 2022 puts ratio at this figure:

Image

Which roughly translated into about 38% of US consumption. Russian economy continues to surge like crazy and by the end of 2025 should hover at 40-42% of the US one. Which gives us a very rough size of Russian economy being about 40% of the US one if one projects those figures directly at GDP number, which, in its turn, is an extremely rough approximation.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/06 ... ander.html
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14433
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Sun Jun 16, 2024 10:33 pm

Putin's Full Speech: BRICS, NATO Expansion and Ukraine Peace Talk Conditions

Last year the Canadian intelligence analyst Patrick Armstrong published this sound advice:

“LISTEN TO WHAT HE’S SAYING”

I’m fond of quoting the Duke of Wellington on intelligence:

All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavour to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called ‘guessing what was at the other side of the hill.’

“Find out what you don’t know by what you do“. It’s not easy, it’s not necessarily pleasant but it’s what you have to do in order to minimise your surprise when whatever it is actually comes over the hill at you.

Here’s former British Ambassador to Russia Laurie Bristow saying the same thing:

My advice to all young diplomats and analysts [is that] if you want to understand Mr Putin’s foreign policy, listen to what he’s saying. You won’t like it, but you need to understand it, you need to listen to it. The place to start is the Munich speech in 2007.

“Listen to what he says”. It’s quite easy to. Putin has said a lot and most of it appears on the Presidential website in English as well as the original Russian. Never read what the Western reporters say he says – they almost always distort it – read the original. I’m sure that both Wellington and Bristow would agree.

And that’s what intelligence is all about. Try and understand how the other guy sees things.


Every few years Putin comes out with a speech or memorandum which explains - past, presence and future - and argues for the position at large Russia is taking.

People who read these speeches will understand Russia. People who don't won't.

The later will miss the facts and come to false conclusions. Acting upon those they will weaken their own positions.

One can avoid doing so by reading Putin's latest speech held yesterday at the Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs. It is quite long but has to be so as it necessarily touches on everything. It includes a kind of peace offer for Ukraine: Hand over the provinces Russia has recognized at its own and gain peace. It was and is not expected that the 'West' will move towards that direction. In consequence the aims of the war will have to change.

With nearly 10,000 words the speech is very long. No summarization will do it justice. I therefore urge you to read it in full.

The English language version was published in full by Sputnik. The authoritative official translation, which will soon appear on the Kremlin website, is not yet complete. As access to both sides may be limited a full copy of the speech is attached below.

What follows is a full reproduction of the English language version Sputnik put out.

Putin's Full Speech at Foreign Ministry: BRICS, NATO Expansion and Ukraine Peace Talk Conditions - Friday, June 15 2024

/* BEGIN OF PUTIN SPEECH */

Dear colleagues, good afternoon!

I am pleased to welcome you all, and at the beginning of our meeting, I want to thank you for your dedicated work in the interest of Russia and our people.

In this broad assembly, we last met in November 2021. Since then, many pivotal and, without exaggeration, fateful events have occurred both in our country and in the world. Therefore, I consider it important to assess the current situation in global and regional affairs and to set corresponding tasks for the foreign policy department. All these tasks are directed towards the primary goal: creating conditions for the sustainable development of the country, ensuring its security, and improving the well-being of Russian families.

Working in this direction in today's challenging and rapidly changing realities requires all of us to concentrate even more on our efforts, initiative, and persistence. It demands the ability not only to respond to current challenges but also to shape our own long-term agenda, to propose and discuss with partners, within the framework of open and constructive dialogue, solutions to fundamental issues that concern not only us but also the entire global community.

I reiterate: the world is changing rapidly. It will not be as it was before, neither in global politics, nor in the economy, nor in technological competition. More and more states are striving to strengthen their sovereignty, self-sufficiency, national and cultural identity. Countries of the Global South and East are coming to the forefront; the role of Africa and Latin America is growing. We have always, since Soviet times, talked about the importance of these regions of the world, but today the dynamics are entirely different, and this is becoming noticeable. The pace of transformation in Eurasia has also noticeably accelerated, where a number of large-scale integration projects are actively being implemented.

Today, on the basis of the new political and economic reality, the contours of a multipolar and multilateral world order are being formed, and this is an objective process. It reflects the cultural-civilizational diversity that, despite all attempts at artificial unification, is organically inherent to humanity.

These profound, systemic changes undoubtedly inspire optimism and hope because the establishment of the principles of multipolarity and multilateralism in international affairs, including respect for international law and broad representation, allows us to collectively address the most complex problems for the common good, to build mutually beneficial relationships, and cooperation between sovereign states in the interests of the well-being and security of peoples.

Such a vision of the future resonates with the aspirations of the absolute majority of the countries in the world. We see this, among other things, in the growing interest in the work of such a universal association as BRICS, which is based on a special culture of trustful dialogue, sovereign equality of participants, and mutual respect. During Russia's chairmanship this year, we will facilitate the smooth inclusion of new BRICS members into the working structures of the association.

I request the Government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to continue substantive work and dialogue with partners to arrive at the Kazan BRICS summit in October with a substantial set of agreed decisions that will set the direction for our cooperation in politics and security, economy and finance, science, culture, sports, and humanitarian ties.

Overall, I believe that the potential of BRICS will allow it to eventually become one of the core regulatory institutions of a multipolar world order.

In this regard, I note that the international discussion about the parameters of state interaction in a multipolar world, about the democratization of the entire system of international relations, is already underway. For example, with colleagues from the Commonwealth of Independent States, we agreed upon and adopted a joint document on international relations in a multipolar world. We invited partners to discuss this topic on other international platforms as well, primarily in the SCO and BRICS.

We are interested in ensuring that this dialogue develops seriously within the UN walls as well, including on such a fundamental, vital issue for all as the creation of a system of indivisible security. In other words, asserting in world affairs the principle that the security of some cannot be ensured at the expense of the security of others.

Let me remind you that at the end of the 20th century, after the end of the acute military-ideological confrontation, the world community had a unique chance to build a reliable, fair order in the field of security. This did not require much – just the simple ability to listen to the opinions of all interested parties and mutual willingness to consider them. Our country was precisely focused on such constructive work.

However, another approach prevailed. Western powers, led by the United States, believed that they had won the "Cold War" and had the right to independently determine how the world should be organized. The practical expression of this worldview was the project of the unlimited spatial and temporal expansion of the North Atlantic bloc, although there were, of course, other ideas on how to ensure security in Europe.

Our legitimate questions were answered with excuses, claiming that no one was planning to attack Russia and that NATO expansion was not directed against Russia. Promises made to the Soviet Union and then to Russia in the late '80s and early '90s about not including new members into the bloc were conveniently forgotten. If remembered at all, it was mockingly said that these assurances were verbal and thus non-binding.

We have consistently, in the 90s and later, pointed out the errors of the course chosen by Western elites, not just criticized and warned but proposed alternatives, constructive solutions, emphasized the importance of developing a mechanism for European and global security that would satisfy everyone – I want to emphasize, everyone. A simple listing of the initiatives that Russia has put forward over the years would take more than one paragraph.

Let's recall at least the idea of a European security treaty that we proposed back in 2008. These same topics were raised in the memorandum from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs handed over to the United States and NATO in December 2021.But all our attempts – and there were many, countless – to reason with our interlocutors, explanations, admonitions, warnings, requests from our side found absolutely no response. Western countries, confident not only in their own rightness but in their strength and ability to impose anything on the rest of the world, simply ignored other opinions. At best, they proposed discussing secondary issues that, in essence, resolved little or topics that were exclusively beneficial to the West.

Meanwhile, it quickly became apparent that the Western scheme, proclaimed as the only right one for ensuring security and prosperity in Europe and the world, did not actually work. Let's remember the tragedy in the Balkans. Internal problems – of course, they existed – that had accumulated in the former Yugoslavia sharply escalated due to gross external interference. Even then, NATO's main diplomatic principle emerged in all its glory – deeply flawed and fruitless in resolving complex interethnic conflicts, namely: blaming one side, which for some reason they didn't particularly like, for all sins and unleashing all political, informational, and military power, economic sanctions, and restrictions on them.

Later, the same approaches were applied in different parts of the world. We know this very well: Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, and so on – and they never brought anything but exacerbation of existing problems, broken lives of millions of people, the destruction of entire states, the spread of humanitarian and social disasters, and terrorist enclaves. In fact, no country in the world is safe from joining this sad list.

So now, the West is aggressively intervening in the affairs of the Middle East. They once monopolized this direction, and the result is clear and obvious to everyone today. The South Caucasus, Central Asia. Two years ago, at the NATO summit in Madrid, it was announced that the alliance would now address security issues not only in the Euro-Atlantic but also in the Asia-Pacific region. They claimed their involvement was indispensable there too. Clearly, this is an attempt to increase pressure on the countries of the region whose development they decided to constrain. As is known, our country – Russia – is one of the top priorities on this list.

I also remind you that it was Washington that undermined strategic stability by unilaterally withdrawing from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and, together with their NATO satellites, destroyed the trust and arms control measures built up over decades in the European space.

Ultimately, the selfishness and arrogance of Western states led to the current extremely dangerous state of affairs. We have come dangerously close to the point of no return. Calls to inflict strategic defeat on Russia, possessing the largest arsenals of nuclear weapons, demonstrate the extreme recklessness of Western politicians. They either do not understand the scale of the threat they themselves are creating or are simply obsessed with a belief in their own impunity and exceptionalism. Both could lead to tragedy.

It is evident that we are witnessing the collapse of the Euro-Atlantic security system. Today, it simply does not exist. It needs to be practically recreated from scratch. All this requires us, together with partners, with all interested countries – and there are many – to develop our security options in Eurasia and then offer them for broad international discussion.

This is exactly what was mandated in the Address to the Federal Assembly. It concerns formulating, in the foreseeable future, on the Eurasian continent, a contour of equal and indivisible security, mutually beneficial, equal cooperation, and development.

What needs to be done for this, and on what principles?

First – it is necessary to establish dialogue with all potential participants in such a future security system. To begin with, I ask you to address the necessary issues with countries open to constructive interaction with Russia.

During a recent visit to the People's Republic of China, we discussed this issue with President Xi Jinping. We noted that the Russian proposal does not contradict but rather complements and fully aligns with the fundamental principles of the Chinese initiative in the field of global security.

Second – it is essential that the future security architecture is open to all Eurasian countries willing to participate in its creation. "For all" means, of course, European and NATO countries as well. We live on the same continent; regardless of what happens, geography cannot be changed, and we will have to coexist and work together.

Yes, relations between Russia and the EU, as well as with several European states, have deteriorated, and I have emphasized many times, not through our fault. The anti-Russian propaganda campaign, in which very high-ranking European figures participate, is accompanied by fabrications that Russia allegedly intends to attack Europe. I have repeatedly said this, and there is no need to repeat it multiple times in this room: we all understand that this is absolute nonsense, only a justification for the arms race.

In this regard, let me make a small digression. The danger for Europe does not come from Russia. The main threat to Europeans lies in the critical and ever-growing, now practically total dependence on the US: in military, political, technological, ideological, and informational spheres. Europe is increasingly being sidelined in global economic development, plunged into chaos by migration and other acute problems, and deprived of international subjectivity and cultural identity.

Sometimes it seems that ruling European politicians and eurobureaucrats are more afraid of falling out of favor with Washington than losing the trust of their own people, their own citizens. Recent elections to the European Parliament also show this. European politicians swallow humiliation, rudeness, and scandals involving surveillance of European leaders, while the US simply uses them for its own interests: making them buy expensive gas – incidentally, gas in Europe is three to four times more expensive than in the US – or, as now, demanding European countries increase arms supplies to Ukraine. By the way, there are constant demands here and there. And sanctions are imposed on them, on economic operators in Europe. Imposed without any hesitation.

Now they are forced to increase arms supplies to Ukraine, expand their capacities for producing artillery shells. Listen, who will need these shells when the conflict in Ukraine ends? How can this ensure the military security of Europe? It is unclear. The US itself invests in military technologies, and in technologies of the future: in space, in modern drones, in strike systems based on new physical principles, that is, in those areas that will determine the nature of armed struggle in the future, and therefore the military-political potential of powers and their positions in the world. And now they are assigned such a role: invest your money where we need it. But this does not increase any European potential. Well, let it be. For us, it may be good, but, in essence, that is the case.

If Europe wants to maintain itself as one of the independent centers of global development and cultural-civilizational poles of the planet, it certainly needs to have good, friendly relations with Russia, and we, importantly, are ready for this.

This really simple and obvious fact was well understood by politicians of truly pan-European and global scale, patriots of their countries and peoples, thinking in historical terms, and not mere figures following someone else's will and hint. This was much talked about by Charles de Gaulle in the post-war years. I also remember how, in 1991, during a conversation in which I had the honor to personally participate, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Helmut Kohl emphasized the importance of partnership between Europe and Russia. I expect that this legacy will sooner or later be returned to by new generations of European politicians.

As for the United States itself, the ongoing attempts by the liberal-globalist elites ruling there today to spread their ideology worldwide by any means, to maintain their imperial status, their dominance, only further exhaust the country, lead it to degradation, and directly contradict the true interests of the American people. If it weren't for this dead-end path, aggressive messianism, mixed with a belief in their own chosenness and exceptionalism, international relations would have long been stabilized.

Third – to promote the idea of a Eurasian security system, it is necessary to significantly intensify the dialogue process among multilateral organizations already operating in Eurasia. This primarily refers to the Union State, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

We see prospects for other influential Eurasian associations, from Southeast Asia to the Middle East, to join these processes in the future.

Fourth – we believe that the time has come to start a broad discussion on a new system of bilateral and multilateral guarantees of collective security in Eurasia. In the long term, we need to work towards gradually reducing the military presence of external powers in the Eurasian region.

We understand, of course, that in the current situation this thesis may seem unrealistic, but that is for now. However, if we build a reliable security system in the future, there will simply be no need for the presence of extraregional military contingents. Frankly, there is no need today either—it is just occupation, that’s all.

Ultimately, we believe that the states and regional structures of Eurasia should themselves determine specific areas of cooperation in the field of joint security. Based on this, they should also build a system of functioning institutions, mechanisms, and agreements that genuinely serve the achievement of common goals of stability and development.

In this context, we support the initiative of our Belarusian friends to develop a program document—a charter of multipolarity and diversity in the 21st century. It can formulate not only the framework principles of Eurasian architecture based on fundamental norms of international law but also, more broadly, a strategic vision of the essence and nature of multipolarity and multilateralism as a new system of international relations, replacing the Western-centric world. I consider it important and ask for thorough work on such a document with our partners and all interested states. I would add that when discussing such complex, comprehensive issues, of course, maximum, broad representation is needed, considering different approaches and positions.

Fifth – an important part of the Eurasian system of security and development must, of course, include issues of the economy, social welfare, integration, and mutually beneficial cooperation, addressing such common problems as overcoming poverty, inequality, climate, ecology, and developing mechanisms for responding to pandemic threats and crises in the global economy—everything is important.

The West, through its actions, has not only undermined military-political stability in the world but has also discredited and weakened key market institutions with sanctions and trade wars. Using the IMF and the World Bank, manipulating the climate agenda, it restrains the development of the Global South. Losing in competition, even by the rules that the West itself wrote, it resorts to prohibitive barriers and all kinds of protectionism. In the US, they have practically abandoned the World Trade Organization as a regulator of international trade. Everything is blocked. Moreover, they exert pressure not only on competitors but also on their satellites. Just look at how they are now “squeezing the juices” from European economies, which are balancing on the brink of recession.

Western countries have frozen part of Russia’s assets and currency reserves. Now they are considering how to provide at least some legal basis to finally appropriate them. But despite all the legal trickery, theft will undoubtedly remain theft and will not go unpunished, on the other hand.

The issue is even deeper. By stealing Russian assets, they will take another step towards destroying the system they created themselves, which for many decades ensured their prosperity, allowing them to consume more than they earned, attracting money from around the world through debts and obligations. Now it is becoming clear to all countries and companies, sovereign funds, that their assets and reserves are far from safe — in both legal and economic terms. And the next in line for expropriation by the US and the West could be anyone — these foreign state funds could be among them.

Distrust of the financial system based on Western reserve currencies is already growing. There has been an outflow of funds from securities and debt obligations of Western states, as well as some European banks, which until recently were considered absolutely reliable places for storing capital. Now even gold is being withdrawn from them. And they are right to do so.

I believe that we need to seriously intensify the formation of effective and safe bilateral and multilateral foreign economic mechanisms, alternative to those controlled by the West. This includes expanding settlements in national currencies, creating independent payment systems, and building production and distribution chains bypassing channels blocked or compromised by the West.

Of course, efforts to develop international transport corridors in Eurasia — a continent whose natural geographic core is Russia — must continue.

I instruct the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to fully support the development of international agreements on all these areas. They are extremely important for strengthening economic cooperation between our country and our partners. This will also give new impetus to the construction of a large Eurasian partnership, which can essentially become the socio-economic basis of a new system of indivisible security in Europe.

Dear colleagues! The essence of our proposals is to form a system within which all states would be confident in their own security. Then we can indeed approach the resolution of numerous conflicts that exist today in a truly constructive manner. The problems of the security deficit and mutual trust apply not only to the Eurasian continent; growing tensions are observed everywhere. And how interconnected and interdependent the world is, we see constantly, and a tragic example for all of us is the Ukrainian crisis, whose consequences are felt all over the planet.

But I want to say right away: the crisis related to Ukraine is not a conflict between two states, let alone two peoples, caused by some problems between them. If that were the case, there is no doubt that Russians and Ukrainians, who are united by a common history and culture, spiritual values, millions of family, kinship, and human ties, would have found a way to fairly resolve any issues and disagreements.

But the situation is different: the roots of the conflict are not in bilateral relations. The events in Ukraine are a direct result of global and European developments of the late 20th – early 21st century, of the aggressive, brazen, and absolutely adventurous policies that the West has been conducting all these years long before the special military operation began.

These Western elites, as I said today, after the end of the "Cold War," embarked on a course of further geopolitical restructuring of the world, creating and imposing the notorious order based on rules, into which strong, sovereign, and self-sufficient states simply do not fit.

Hence the policy of containing our country. The goals of this policy are openly declared by some figures in the US and Europe. Today they talk about the notorious decolonization of Russia. Essentially, this is an attempt to provide an ideological basis for the dismemberment of our homeland along national lines. In fact, there has long been talk of the dismemberment of the Soviet Union and Russia. Everyone sitting in this room is well aware of this.

Implementing this strategy, Western countries have taken the line of absorbing and military-political development of territories close to us. There have been five, and now six, waves of NATO expansion. They tried to turn Ukraine into their stronghold, to make it "anti-Russia." To achieve these goals, they invested money, resources, bought politicians and entire parties, rewrote history and educational programs, nurtured and grew groups of neo-Nazis and radicals. They did everything to undermine our interstate connections, to divide and set our peoples against each other.

Such policies were further obstructed by southeastern Ukraine — territories that have been part of great historical Russia for centuries. People lived there, and still live, who, including after Ukraine declared its independence in 1991, advocated for good and very close relations with our country. People — both Russians and Ukrainians, representatives of different nationalities, who were united by the Russian language, culture, traditions, historical memory.

The position, mood, interests, and voices of these people — millions of people living in the southeast — had to be taken into account by former Ukrainian presidents and politicians who fought for this post, used the votes of these voters. But, using these votes, they maneuvered, lied a lot, talked about the so-called European choice. They did not dare to break completely with Russia because the southeast of Ukraine was inclined differently, and this could not be ignored. Such duality has always been inherent in Ukrainian power throughout the years since recognizing independence.

The West, of course, saw this. They had long seen and understood the problems there that could be stirred up, understood the restraining significance of the southeastern factor, and that no amount of years of propaganda could fundamentally change the situation. Certainly, much was done, but fundamentally it was difficult to alter the situation.

It was impossible to distort the historical identity and consciousness of the majority of people in southeastern Ukraine, to eradicate from them, including the younger generations, the positive attitude towards Russia and the sense of our historical commonality. And so they decided to act with force again, to simply break the people in the southeast, to disregard their opinion. For this, they organized, financed, and certainly took advantage of the internal political difficulties and complexities in Ukraine, but still systematically and purposefully prepared an armed coup d'état.

Ukrainian cities were overwhelmed by a wave of pogroms, violence, and killings. Power in Kiev was finally seized and usurped by radicals. Their aggressive nationalist slogans, including the rehabilitation of Nazi collaborators, were elevated to the rank of state ideology. A course was proclaimed to eliminate the Russian language in state and public spheres, pressure on Orthodox believers increased, interference in church affairs, which ultimately led to a split. No one seems to notice this interference, as if it is normal. Try to do something different elsewhere, and there will be so much artistic whistling that your ears will fall off. But there it’s allowed, because it’s against Russia.

Millions of residents of Ukraine, primarily from its eastern regions, opposed the coup, as is known. They were threatened with reprisals and terror. And above all, the new authorities in Kiev began preparing an attack on the Russian-speaking Crimea, which at one time, in 1954, as you know, was transferred from the RSFSR to Ukraine in violation of all laws and procedures, even those in force at that time in the Soviet Union. In this situation, of course, we could not abandon, leave unprotected the Crimeans and Sevastopol residents. They made their choice, and in March 2014, as is known, the historic reunification of Crimea and Sevastopol with Russia took place.

In Kharkov, Kherson, Odessa, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Lugansk, Mariupol, peaceful protests against the coup began to be suppressed, terror was unleashed by the Kiev regime and nationalist groups. It probably doesn't need to be recalled, everyone remembers well what happened in these regions.

In May 2014, referendums were held on the status of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, where the overwhelming majority of residents voted for independence and sovereignty. Immediately the question arises: could people express their will in this way, could they declare their independence? Those sitting in this hall understand that of course they could, they had every right and grounds for it, including under international law, including the right of peoples to self-determination. I don't need to remind you, but nonetheless, since the media is working, I will say, Article 1, paragraph 2 of the United Nations Charter gives this right.I remind you in this regard of the notorious Kosovo precedent. It was talked about many times in its time, now I will say it again. The precedent, which Western countries created themselves, in a completely analogous situation, recognized the separation of Kosovo from Serbia as legitimate, which took place in 2008. Then followed the well-known decision of the International Court of Justice of the UN, which on July 22, 2010, based on paragraph 2 of Article 1 of the United Nations Charter, ruled, I quote: "There is no general prohibition against unilateral declarations of independence stemming from the practice of the Security Council." And the next quote: "General international law does not contain any applicable prohibition on declarations of independence." Moreover, it was recorded that parts of a country, any country, that decide to declare their independence, are not required to consult the central authorities of their former state. Everything is written there, all in their own hand, in black and white.

So, did these republics – Donetsk and Lugansk – have the right to declare their independence? Well, of course, yes. The question cannot even be considered otherwise.

What did the regime in Kiev do in this situation? Completely ignored the choice of the people and unleashed a full-scale war against the new independent states – the people's republics of Donbass using aviation, artillery, tanks. Bombing and shelling of peaceful cities, acts of intimidation began. And what happened next? The residents of Donbass took up arms to protect their lives, their home, their rights, and legitimate interests.

In the West, there is now a constant thesis that Russia started the war within the framework of the special military operation, that it is the aggressor, and therefore strikes can be made on its territory using Western weapon systems, Ukraine allegedly defends itself and can do this.

I want to emphasize once again: Russia did not start the war; it was the Kiev regime that, after the residents of part of Ukraine declared their independence in accordance with international law, began and continues military actions. This is aggression if we do not recognize the right of these peoples living in these territories to declare their independence. What else could it be? This is aggression. And those who have been aiding the Kiev regime’s war machine all these years are accomplices to the aggressor.

Back in 2014, the residents of Donbass did not give in. Militia units stood their ground, repelled the punitive forces, and then drove them back from Donetsk and Lugansk. We hoped this would sober up those who unleashed this massacre. To stop the bloodshed, Russia made the usual appeals – calls for negotiations, and they began with the participation of Kiev and representatives of the Donbass republics with the assistance of Russia, Germany, and France.

The conversation was difficult, but nevertheless, as a result, the Minsk agreements were concluded in 2015. We took their implementation very seriously, hoping that we could resolve the situation within the framework of a peaceful process and international law. We expected that this would take into account the legitimate interests and demands of Donbass, enshrine a special status for these regions in the constitution, and the fundamental rights of the people living there while maintaining the territorial unity of Ukraine. We were ready for this and were ready to persuade the people living in these territories to resolve issues in this way, repeatedly offering various compromises and solutions.

But in the end, everything was rejected. The Minsk agreements were simply thrown in the trash by Kiev. As representatives of the Ukrainian elite later admitted, none of the provisions of these documents suited them; they just lied and twisted as much as they could.

The former Chancellor of Germany and the former President of France, who were essentially co-authors and guarantors of the Minsk agreements, later admitted outright that they had no intention of implementing them; they simply needed to stall the situation to buy time for assembling Ukrainian armed formations and pumping them up with weapons and equipment. They simply "fooled" us again, deceived us.

Instead of a real peace process, instead of the policy of reintegration and national reconciliation, which they loved to pontificate about in Kiev, Donbass was shelled for eight years. They carried out terrorist attacks, killings, and organized the harshest blockade. All these years, the residents of Donbass (women, children, the elderly) were declared "second-class" people, "subhumans," and were threatened with reprisals, saying, “we’ll come and settle scores with each one.” What is this, if not genocide in the center of Europe in the 21st century? And in Europe and the US, they pretended that nothing was happening, no one noticed anything.

At the end of 2021 – beginning of 2022, the Minsk process was finally buried by Kiev and its Western patrons, and another massive strike on Donbass was planned. A large grouping of Ukrainian armed forces was preparing to launch a new offensive on Lugansk and Donetsk, of course, with ethnic cleansing and huge human casualties, hundreds of thousands of refugees. We were obliged to prevent this catastrophe, to protect the people; we had no other choice.

Russia finally recognized the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. After all, we did not recognize them for eight years, still hoping to come to an agreement. The result is now known. And on February 21, 2022, we concluded treaties of friendship, cooperation, and mutual assistance with these republics, which we recognized. Question: did the people's republics have the right to ask us for support if we recognized their independence? And did we have the right to recognize their independence just as they had the right to declare their sovereignty in accordance with the mentioned articles and decisions of the International Court of Justice of the UN? Did they have the right to declare independence? They did. But if they had such a right and used it, then we had the right to conclude a treaty with them – and we did, and I repeat: in full accordance with international law and Article 51 of the UN Charter.

At the same time, we appealed to the Kiev authorities to withdraw their troops from Donbass. I can tell you, there were contacts; we immediately told them: withdraw your troops from there, and everything will end there. This proposal was practically immediately rejected, simply ignored, although it provided a real opportunity to close the issue precisely in a peaceful way.

On February 24, 2022, Russia was forced to announce the start of a special military operation. Addressing the citizens of Russia, the residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, and Ukrainian society, I then outlined the goals of this operation – to protect the people of Donbass, restore peace, conduct demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and thus avert threats from our state, restore the balance in the field of security in Europe.

At the same time, we continued to consider achieving these goals through political and diplomatic methods a priority. I remind you that at the very first stage of the special military operation, our country entered into negotiations with representatives of the Kiev regime. They were held first in Belarus, in Turkiye. We tried to convey our main point: respect the choice of Donbass, the will of the people living there, withdraw the troops, stop the shelling of peaceful cities and towns. Nothing else is needed, the rest of the issues will be resolved later. The response was: no, we will fight. It is obvious that this was the command from the Western masters, and I will talk about this now.

At that time, in February-March 2022, our troops, as is known, approached Kiev. There were and still are many speculations about this in Ukraine and the West.

What do I want to say about this? Our units were indeed stationed near Kiev, and the military departments, the security block, had different proposals regarding our possible further actions, but there was no political decision to storm a three-million-strong city, no matter what anyone said or imagined.

Essentially, this was nothing but an operation to force the Ukrainian regime to make peace. The troops were there to push the Ukrainian side towards negotiations, to try to find acceptable solutions and thereby end the war initiated by Kiev against Donbass back in 2014, and to resolve issues posing a threat to the security of our country, to the security of Russia. Strangely enough, as a result, we managed to reach agreements that basically suited both Moscow and Kiev. These agreements were put on paper and initialed in Istanbul by the head of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation. This means that the Kiev authorities were satisfied with such a resolution of the issue.

The document was called the "Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine." It was of a compromise nature, but its key points aligned with our fundamental demands, addressing the objectives declared as primary even at the beginning of the special military operation. Including, as strange as it may seem, I draw attention to, the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. Here, too, we managed to find complex solutions. They are complex, but they were found. Namely: it was intended that a Ukrainian law would be adopted to ban Nazi ideology, any of its manifestations. Everything is written there.

Furthermore, Ukraine, in exchange for international security guarantees, would limit the size of its armed forces, undertake obligations not to join military alliances, not to allow foreign military bases, not to host them or contingents, not to conduct military exercises on its territory. Everything was written down on paper.

We, on our part, also understanding Ukraine's security concerns, agreed that Ukraine, formally not joining NATO, would receive guarantees practically equivalent to those enjoyed by members of this alliance. For us, this was a difficult decision, but we recognized the legitimacy of Ukraine’s demands for its security and, in principle, did not object to the proposed formulations from Kiev. These were formulations proposed by Kiev, and we generally did not object to them, understanding that the main thing was to stop the bloodshed and the war in Donbass.

On March 29, 2022, we withdrew our troops from Kiev because we were assured that it was necessary to create the necessary conditions for completing the political negotiation process, for completing this process. And that it is not possible for one side to sign such agreements, as our Western colleagues said, with a gun to the head. Fine, we agreed to this too. However, immediately, the very next day after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kiev, the Ukrainian leadership suspended its participation in the negotiation process, staged the well-known provocation in Bucha, and refused the prepared version of the agreements. I think it is clear today why this dirty provocation was needed – to somehow explain the refusal of those results achieved during the negotiations. The path to peace was again rejected.

This was done, as we now know, at the behest of Western curators, including the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, during whose visit to Kiev it was explicitly stated: no agreements, it is necessary to defeat Russia on the battlefield, achieve its strategic defeat. And they continued to intensively pump Ukraine with weapons, talking about the need to inflict, as I just reminded, a strategic defeat on us. And some time later, as everyone knows well, the President of Ukraine issued a decree prohibiting his representatives and even himself from conducting any negotiations with Moscow. This episode with our attempt to solve the problem by peaceful means ended in nothing once again.

By the way, on the topic of negotiations. Now I would like to disclose another episode to this audience. I have not spoken publicly about this before, but some present are aware of it. After the Russian army occupied parts of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, many Western politicians offered their mediation in peacefully resolving the conflict. One of them was on a working visit to Moscow on March 5, 2022. And we accepted his mediation efforts, especially since he, during the conversation, referred to the fact that he had received support from the leaders of Germany and France, as well as senior representatives of the US.

During the conversation, our foreign guest inquired – a curious episode, he said: if you are helping Donbass, why are Russian troops in southern Ukraine, including the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions? The answer from our side was that this was the decision of the Russian General Staff in planning the operation. And today I will add that the plan was to bypass some fortified areas that the Ukrainian authorities built in Donbass over eight years, primarily for the liberation of Mariupol.

Then the foreign colleague clarified – a professional person, I must admit: will our Russian troops remain in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions? and what will happen to these regions after achieving the goals of the special military operation? To this, I answered that in general, I do not rule out the preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty over these territories, but on the condition that Russia has a strong land connection with Crimea. That is, Kiev must guarantee the so-called servitude – a legally formalized right of access for Russia to the Crimean Peninsula through the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

This is a crucial political decision. And of course, naturally, in the final version, it would not be made unilaterally but only after consultations with the Security Council, other structures, and, of course, after discussion with the citizens, the public of our country, and primarily with the residents of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. In the end, we did just that: we asked the opinion of the people themselves and held referendums. And acted according to the decision of the people, including in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.

At that time, in March 2022, the negotiation partner informed that he intended to go to Kiev to continue the discussion with colleagues in the Ukrainian capital. We welcomed this, as well as any attempts to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict, because every day of fighting meant new casualties and losses. However, in Ukraine, as we learned later, the services of the Western mediator were not accepted. On the contrary, as we found out, he was accused of taking pro-Russian positions – in quite a harsh manner, I must say, but that’s already a detail.

Now, as already mentioned, the situation has fundamentally changed. The residents of Kherson and Zaporozhye, during referendums, expressed their position. The Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, as well as the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, have become part of the Russian Federation. There can be no talk of violating our state unity. The people's desire to be with Russia is unshakeable. The issue is closed forever and is no longer subject to discussion.

I want to reiterate: it was the West that prepared and provoked the Ukrainian crisis, and now it is doing everything to drag out this crisis endlessly, to weaken and mutually embitter the people of Russia and Ukraine.

They are sending new batches of ammunition and weapons. Some European politicians have started talking about the possibility of deploying their regular troops in Ukraine. At the same time, as I have already noted, the true current masters of Ukraine – unfortunately, not the people of Ukraine, but the globalist elites located across the ocean – are trying to impose on the Ukrainian executive power the burden of making decisions that are unpopular with the people, including further lowering the draft age.

As you know, it is now 25 years, the next stage could be 23, then 20, 18 or immediately 18. And then, of course, they will get rid of those figures who will make these unpopular decisions under Western pressure, throw them out as unnecessary, shift all the responsibility onto them, and put other people dependent on the West, but with not yet so tarnished reputations, in their place.

Hence, possibly, the idea of canceling the next presidential elections in Ukraine. Now those in power will do everything, then they will be thrown into the trash – and then they will do whatever they see fit.

In this regard, I will remind you of what they now prefer not to remember in Kiev, and the West prefers not to talk about. What is it? Back in May 2014, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine ruled that – quote – “The President is elected for five years, regardless of whether he is elected in early or regular elections.” In addition, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine noted that – quote – “the constitutional status of the President does not contain norms that would establish any other term except for the five-year term.” End of quote, full stop. The court's decision was final and not subject to appeal. That's it.

What does this mean for today’s situation? The presidential term of the previously elected head of Ukraine has expired along with his legitimacy, which cannot be restored by any trickery. I will not go into detail about the background of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine's decision on the presidential term. It is clear that it was related to attempts to legitimize the 2014 coup. But nevertheless, this verdict exists, and it is a legal fact. It casts doubt on all attempts to justify today's spectacle of canceling the elections.In fact, the current tragic page in Ukraine's history began with a forcible seizure of power, as I have already said, an unconstitutional coup in 2014. I repeat: the source of the current Kiev regime is an armed coup. And now the circle is complete – the executive power in Ukraine is again, as in 2014, usurped and held illegally, is essentially illegitimate.

I will say more: the situation with the cancellation of elections is an expression of the very nature, the true essence of the current Kiev regime, which grew out of the 2014 armed coup, is tied to it, and has its roots there. And the fact that by canceling the elections, they continue to cling to power, these are actions that are directly prohibited by Article 5 of the Constitution of Ukraine. I quote: “The right to determine and change the constitutional order in Ukraine belongs exclusively to the people and cannot be usurped by the state, its bodies, or officials.” In addition, such actions fall under Article 109 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, which speaks about the violent change or overthrow of the constitutional order or the seizure of state power, as well as conspiracy to commit such actions.

In 2014, such usurpation was justified in the name of revolution, and now – by military actions. But the essence of this does not change. In fact, we are talking about a conspiracy of the executive power of Ukraine, the leadership of the Verkhovna Rada, and the parliamentary majority controlled by it, aimed at the usurpation of state power (it cannot be called otherwise), which is a criminal offense under Ukrainian law.

Moreover, the Constitution of Ukraine does not provide for the possibility of canceling or postponing the presidential elections in the country, extending its powers due to martial law, which is currently being referred to. What is in the Ukrainian basic law? It states that during martial law, elections to the Verkhovna Rada may be postponed. This is Article 83 of the country’s Constitution.

Thus, Ukrainian legislation provides for the only exception when the powers of a state authority are extended during martial law and elections are not held. And this applies exclusively to the Verkhovna Rada. Therefore, the status of the Ukrainian parliament as a continuously operating body in the conditions of martial law is thus defined.

In other words, it is precisely the Verkhovna Rada that is today a legitimate body as opposed to the executive power. Ukraine is not a presidential republic but a parliamentary-presidential one. This is the essence.

Moreover, the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, acting as President, under Articles 106 and 112, is endowed with special powers, including in the field of defense, security, and supreme command of the armed forces. All this is written in black and white.

By the way, in the first half of this year, Ukraine concluded a package of bilateral agreements on cooperation in the field of security and long-term support with a number of European countries. Now there is a similar document with the United States.

As of May 21 of this year, the question naturally arises about the powers and legitimacy of the representatives of the Ukrainian side who sign such documents. For us, as they say, it doesn’t matter, let them sign whatever they want. It is clear that there is a political and propagandistic component here. The United States and its satellites want to somehow support their appointees, give them weight and legitimacy.

Nevertheless, if later in the US a serious legal examination of such an agreement is carried out (I am not talking about the essence, but about the legal component), then the question will inevitably arise: who signed these documents and with what authority? And it will turn out that all this is a bluff, and the agreement is void, and the whole structure will collapse, of course, if there is a desire to analyze the situation. They can pretend that everything is normal, but there is nothing normal about it, I have read it. Everything is written in the documents, everything is written in the Constitution.

I also remind you that after the start of the special military operation, the West launched a vigorous and very brazen campaign trying to isolate Russia on the international stage. Today it is clear to everyone that this attempt has failed, but the West has not abandoned its idea of building some semblance of an international anti-Russian coalition, creating the appearance of pressure on Russia. We understand this too.

As you know, they began actively promoting the initiative of holding a so-called high-level international conference on peace in Ukraine in Switzerland. Moreover, they plan to hold it immediately after the G7 summit, that is, the group of those who, in fact, ignited the conflict in Ukraine with their policies. What the organizers of the meeting in Switzerland are proposing is just another trick to divert public attention, to swap the cause and effect of the Ukrainian crisis, to lead the discussion astray and somewhat give the appearance of legitimacy to the current executive power in Ukraine once again.

Therefore, it is logical that no truly fundamental issues underlying the current crisis of international security and stability, the true roots of the Ukrainian conflict, are going to be discussed in Switzerland, despite all attempts to give the conference agenda a more or less decent appearance.

Already now it can be expected that everything will be reduced to general demagogic discussions and a new set of accusations against Russia. The ploy is obvious: by any means, drag in as many countries as possible and present the case as if the Western recipes and rules are shared by the entire international community, and therefore our country must unconditionally accept them.

As you know, we were not invited to the meeting in Switzerland. After all, in essence, these are not negotiations, but the desire of a group of countries to continue pushing their line, to decide on issues that directly affect our interests and security at their own discretion.

I want to emphasize in this regard: without Russia's participation, without honest and responsible dialogue with us, it is impossible to reach a peaceful resolution in Ukraine and in general regarding global European security.

Meanwhile, the West ignores our interests, while at the same time forbidding Kiev to negotiate, and hypocritically calling on us for some negotiations. It just looks idiotic: on the one hand, they forbid them to negotiate with us, and on the other, they call us for negotiations and even hint that we are refusing negotiations. It’s some kind of nonsense. But we are living in a kind of Wonderland.

But first of all, they should give Kiev the command to lift the ban, the self-ban on negotiations with Russia, and secondly, we are ready to sit down at the negotiating table even tomorrow. We understand all the peculiarity of the legal situation, but there are legitimate authorities there even according to the Constitution, I just mentioned it now, there is someone to negotiate with. Please, we are ready. Our conditions for starting such a conversation are simple and are as follows.

(The rest at link, it wouldn't fit.)

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/06/p ... .html#more
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14433
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Mon Jun 17, 2024 3:44 pm

About the battle with Ilyin
No. 6/94.VI.2024

It is very convenient to criticize fascism as a collective image of the most disgusting thing that humanity has invented. Here you will also find a lot of accessible textures from the times of Nazi Germany; there is international condemnation here; and a guaranteed influx of emotions when studying the unimaginable atrocities of the punitive forces is definitely guaranteed. The critic of fascism is strengthened a hundredfold by righteous anger, moral superiority and obvious TRUTH! An anti-fascist warrior is not afraid of attacks: anyone who dares to disagree with him automatically becomes a fascist henchman.

If any public figure tries to put on a swastika, the masses of the population will be furious. This pain, this memory of inhuman evil is undoubtedly a positive result of Soviet experience and education, significantly preventing the Russian Federation from sliding into extreme forms of capitalist ideology.

But here’s an excess: the head of state, among his favorite philosophers, discovers something that seems to be related to fascism: both in the past (I. Ilyin) and in the present (A. Dugin); the latter is also going to head a school named after the former. However, the masses of the population are not furious: the swastika is not pasted on I. Ilyin, and his rhetoric is filtered by the authorities, and so cleverly that it is already beginning to evoke sympathy. And such abominations occur not only in relation to philosophy: they will hang a plaque to K. Mannerheim, or erect a monument to P. Krasnov, or even praise B. Mussolini from the central channel!

What to do? The vanguard of leftists in the person of A. Rudoy, ​​K. Semin, K. Zhukov, E. Yakovlev, D. Puchkov, R. Meisner, E. Bazhenov, A. Kolpakidi, R. Osin, S. Kurginyan, E. Spitsyn and others undertakes to give battle. The members of the detachment carried out work that felt like hundreds of hours of preparation - a detailed analysis of I. Ilyin’s position, fortunately he wrote extensively, worked for the public, and expressed his views clearly.

Our leftists, however, significantly disagree among themselves about the reasons for the Russian authorities’ flirting with characters like I. Ilyin: either this is an overly sharp right turn due to the ongoing defensive war, or a strict course towards fascisation and imperialism, confirmed by the aggressive war. At the same time, the entire detachment is quite monolithic in its more or less mild opposition to various movements of a right-wing nature, which, in the Tsargrad manner, warmly welcome such undertakings of the authorities.

What methods of struggle do the authors propose based on this analysis?

Firstly, this in itself is anti-fascist educational work among the people . In the overwhelming majority of cases, the authors clearly do not propose any kind of struggle, implying that the brought light of knowledge about fascist, collaborationist and anti-communist phenomena will work a miracle: either they will simply keep the people from sliding into the brown plague, or they will even raise them to the revolutionary struggle.

Some of the authors go further, and narrate not just from an anti-fascist position, but also talk about communism (like K. Zhukov about the “Manifesto of the Communist Party”). This does not change the essence of the educational method of struggle.

Secondly, this is criticism of the Russian authorities. “Be careful when turning, especially if it’s a right turn,” S. Kurginyan advises the authorities in a fatherly manner. Others express themselves more harshly, in every possible way dissuading the Russian leadership from such a turn. So R. Osin intelligently proposed to look for a compromise: the format of the debate with a “political scientist on the conservative-patriotic spectrum” ended, “emphasizing the importance of a multifaceted consideration and the possibility of obtaining new knowledge and issues for further study.” The anti-war wing of the detachment like A. Rudoy and K. Semin has already lost hope of bringing some sense to the authorities: they say, everything is clear with you, damned fascists, the SVO has already shown all your imperialist intentions.

Occasionally, authors play “Cassandra”: for example, K. Semin, who has been rubbing his hands for a year in anticipation of the inevitable onset of revolution, or K. Zhukov, warning that the proletarians will definitely unite.

Thirdly, this is support for civil protest, which occurs, although not so often . They say that since young people have already begun their rebellion against right-wing conservatism, then they need to put all their efforts into information coverage. You can even sign a petition or go to a rally!

Fourthly, appeals about revolutionary resistance to the damned Russian imperialists from A. Rudoy and Trotskyists like him.

The purpose of this article is to evaluate such struggles from the perspective of Marxism.

1. Spontaneous response
I. Ilyin was a product of the transitional feudal-bourgeois time, combining nationalist views, where the Russian people were inspired by God with the idea of ​​a “contemplative heart”, with a “unique gift of renewing repentance” and with an “understanding of truth and falsehood”, with a ranking worldview, within the framework of which to govern the people should be spiritually worthy, preferably (albeit with reservations, see “On Monarchy and Republic”) with some supreme leader at the top of the hierarchy. The October Revolution of 1917 remained for him a “black swan” that prevented the rapid formation of an ideal structure for the Russian people. Therefore, revolutionary events led I. Ilyin to the white movement and promotion to the ideology of the EMRO.

The blow of the revolution to the idealistic consciousness of I. Ilyin was such a force that he absolutized the fight against communism, became indiscriminate in the choice of allies to the extreme extent that he lost touch with reality.

In 1933-1934, I. Ilyin openly supported the Nazis’ rise to power (see “National Socialism. The New Spirit”, 1933), since “Hitler stopped the process of Bolshevisation in Germany” and continued to work as a staff member of the Russian Scientific Institute, now funded already the Nazi propaganda ministry. Already at this moment it required him to partially ignore reality. Firstly, by this time A. Hitler had already ten years ago outlined his views in a well-known brochure: on expanding the territory of Germany to accommodate the surplus population in the “living space”; that Russia and the outskirts of the state subordinate to it will be populated by Germans after the conquest of living space; on the Slavs as representatives of a lower race, which fate had prepared for the role of servants of the German superior race. Secondly, I. Ilyin closed his eyes and called the illegal Nazi coup, which began with the arson of the Reichstag in February 1933 and continued with mass terror, legal. Even I. Ilyin’s colleague in anti-communism and the white movement, A. Denikin, categorically dissociated himself from Ilyin’s stupid idea that in the fight against the Bolsheviks one could reach an alliance with a terrorist who openly announced the barbaric takeover of Russia.

It would seem that the Great Patriotic War so clearly showed the threat to the supposedly beloved people and fatherland of I. Ilyin that he, who proudly calls himself a philosopher, would have to reconsider his attitude not only personally towards A. Hitler with his hatred and cruelty towards the Russian people, but and to fascism in general, as well as to the role of communist forces in its defeat. And his shameful expulsion from Germany should have somehow influenced the assessment of events.

However, our philosopher, as usual, conducted the study of the contradiction between Russian nationalism and German fascism in the muddy idealistic mess of the national idea, where the basis of victory was the very Russianness that overcame all obstacles in spite of the communists. And the communists, according to the precepts of Goebbels’s propaganda, were assigned equally guilty with the Nazis for the outbreak of World War II, and for the outbreak of the Soviet-Finnish War of 1939, and for the death of Soviet prisoners of war, and for the occupation and enslavement of Europe in 1945.

Therefore, the contradiction was resolved in favor of... an alternative, correct Orthodox Russian social fascism (see “On Fascism” from the collection “Our Tasks,” 1948) - one that would be devoid of irreligion, right-wing totalitarianism, party monopoly and militant chauvinism (“mania grandiose"), in return supporting anti-communism, tradition, civilization, social achievement and a sense of rank (as opposed to the "prejudice of equality"). Thus, the philosopher remained unchanged from his earlier positions when he argued that “the white movement as a whole is much broader than fascism and in essence deeper than fascism. Or, if you like: the white movement is a generic concept, and fascism is a specific concept” (see “Russian Fascism”, 1928).

Ilyin's theory of social fascism did not require racial prejudice. According to it, a number of people selected by nature, bourgeois-wealthy members of society, have the right to govern the people, to elections and to access the means of production; the rest of the “rabble” are not endowed with rights due to their “bad” soul and lack of honor. Social fascism, of course, implies dictatorship, because the notorious honor of the chosen people forms in them the understanding that “Russia must be above classes, estates and parties”, that “the interests of Russia must be above the interests of individuals or groups” and that “Russians must look for responsible and strong friends with whom you can rally around the leader and menacingly carry the cause of Russia” (see “Manifesto of the Russian Movement for National Russia”).

I. Ilyin did not explain to us by what formal criteria to distinguish these good people, but he did not forget to include himself in their list. The latter allowed another of his fellow anti-communists, N. Berdyaev, to criticize him for acting on behalf of absolute good, for his spiritual pride and use of violence in the name of good.

Thus, I. Ilyin’s illusions that Hitler’s fascism would help establish a “free Russia” failed in practice. However, the hatred of communism was so strong that I. Ilyin accused the USSR, along with Germany, of starting the Second World War, declared all communists involved in the Victory enemies, trampling the heroes of the war into the mud, and reduced the feat of Victory to an abstraction, attributing it exclusively to the magical “spirit” Russian people." As a solution to creating a future “free” Russia, the philosopher proposed an alternative version of “good” fascism - Russian, Orthodox and non-aggressive.

Such a philosophy made I. Ilyin a stranger to the people who survived the terrible war against fascism and won it. The well-deserved failure of I. Ilyin’s philosophical efforts is easily demonstrated by the zero impact of his activities both during his life and after his death . After all, as our comrade I. Bortnik wonderfully noted,

“Fascism is scary not because of the existence of ideology, or ideologists, or some kind of sect (and the Putin-Surkov club of Ilyin lovers is nothing more than a pathetic sect), but because of how massively it covers the population. But these ideas didn’t grasp the population at all [10].”

As for the connection between Russian nationalism and European fascism in the position of I. Ilyin, it cannot be said that it is a random historical variation in the choice of such characters. The fact is that history has confirmed many times that the national bourgeoisie cowardly betrays its country, its people, in the service of the foreign bourgeoisie, when it is threatened by the working class and the Red Guard’s attack on capital. I. Ilyin in this sense only played out such a betrayal philosophically and politically.

What can be said about the spontaneous reactions to the work of such a philosopher?

The appearance of I. Ilyin in the public sphere is part of the agenda, which is formed not so much by the authorities as by the bourgeoisie itself.

Of course, an attempt to use such a figure in the traditional rhetoric of “reconciliation of reds and whites” is stupid even within the framework of the logic of the bourgeois class, because I. Ilyin himself was an irreconcilable, arrogant and short-sighted anti-communist who did not accept any communist heroes, even if they saved at least three times fatherland, and ready to contact any enemy of the USSR, as long as he was against the Bolsheviks. And if we really use Ilyin’s philosophical heritage, the North Military District will have to be declared a struggle between “good”, “our” fascism and “bad”.

However, various right-wing movements and simply concerned citizens who consider themselves true patriots actively support the leadership of the Russian Federation in such endeavors. Overly ardent defenders of any action by the authorities look especially disgusting against this background (for example, here and here ). They argue that “ the essence of I. Ilyin as an ideologist is a patriot of historical Russia, a spiritual nationalist, and at the same time a convinced, consistent anti-communist .”

Thus, I. Ilyin becomes a person who survived the times of the Red Terror (which is an absolute evil that does not need to be proven) and worked on an alternative, “white” project for a free Russia. And he supposedly has no fascism: he didn’t like Vlasov, and he criticized fascism, and in his work “On Fascism” from the collection “Our Tasks” he pointed out all the shortcomings of fascism, leaving only some “positive” ones from the list of properties of fascism. “a squeeze that allowed “Mussolini, Hitler, Franco to overcome the crisis of the Great Depression faster than in other Western countries, restore order in their states, raise the agricultural complex and industry” and which can be used for the white movement. All this sounds good and beautiful until they start trying to explain this very white idea. At this moment, a trick occurs: from it, in these explanations, the entire social-fascist essence associated with dictatorship and a sense of rank is completely “accidentally” emasculated, and reasoning flies into the idealistic skies of existential positivity and “symphony” of the Russian people: “Russian civilization is grafted from fascist-Nazi syndrome at the level of its deepest fundamental principles.”

Traditionally, various social forces begin to respond to the agenda. We have already seen a violent reaction of rejection from the “advanced detachment of communists.” Together with them, ordinary citizens, communists of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, opportunists of all stripes, and liberals criticize and even scold the leadership. Any citizen of the Russian Federation who is not indifferent simply because his ancestors fought against the fascists, any ordinary anti-fascist, and even any liberal who goes to his goals along his own crooked paths - each of them can do similar work.

Since the legacy of the USSR and the memory of fascism have not yet been overcome in the Russian Federation, the strength of a healthy spontaneous protest against the idiotic choice of “moral guidelines” is proportional to the level of their abomination. I. Ilyin spoke out so directly and abundantly that most citizens who simply have not forgotten the horrors of the Great Patriotic War will instantly smell the brown stench of his philosophy. If the protest is strong enough, there is a chance that I. Ilyin will leave the public and educational agenda and be replaced by someone more in line with the ideology of reconciliation of “historical patriotic forces.”

Trotskyists in the service of Western imperialism, in turn, are trying to take advantage of the situation and make capital on the topic of protests.

In general, such a movement, taken in the bourgeois field , working according to the scheme “educational activity => civil protest => influence on government decisions” is to a certain extent progressive, helping to preserve the legacy of the USSR. Even the simplest presentation of the ideas of I. Ilyin and others like him, without any pretensions to Marxist analysis, but also without a bias towards the right-wing conservative side, undoubtedly plays a positive role.

2. A scientific view of the situation
For a Marxist, the fascist I. Ilyin is, of course, a zero figure from the point of view of philosophy and an enemy of all the peoples of the USSR, who in his anti-Bolshevism has slipped into serving German fascism. A fascist is the primary enemy, regardless of what clothes he dresses up in - racial, social, clerical or any other.

However, communist forces do not operate within the framework of a bourgeois agenda . Any departure from scientific theory and the revolutionary practice based on it is an activity related to progress, at best, accidental. The instinctive reaction to the bourgeois agenda is a spontaneous action, adequate to the low level of social science education. The motive for this reaction is the conviction that the appearance of I. Ilyin in the public sphere is evidence that the leadership of the Russian Federation itself is being fascistized. What is required from a communist is motivation based on a conscious need. This means that it is necessary to give a scientific assessment of the situation and identify the necessary tasks that follow from it.

2.1. Fascism
The Marxist method of thinking, that is, diamatics [3][4], suggests that when considering a certain phenomenon one cannot limit oneself to observing superficial manifestations. It is necessary to explore the essence: based on fundamental scientific categories; with the identification of the “essence of the “subject”, i.e., the definition of those opposites, the relationships of which gave rise to the “subject” under study; with consideration of the phenomenon in development, self-movement (as Hegel sometimes said), change.”

From the Marxist science of social development [5] [6] we know: the law of uneven development of human society is manifested in the fact that different parts of society are at different stages of development, are controlled by different class organizations and act with varying degrees of reactionary and progressive. Research [7] shows that at the moment the following types of states can be distinguished: a group of socialist states; adjoining states of socialist orientation; a number of blocs of bourgeois states, more or less adjacent to the leading large bourgeois detachment led by the United States. The confrontation is conducted both along the class line between socialist and bourgeois states, and along the line of competitive struggle between blocs of bourgeois states. The latter are at different stages of development of the bourgeois formation, however, from V. Lenin’s teachings on imperialism, we know that already in the 19th century a significant part of them entered the imperialist stage.

The essence of the imperialist superstructure was formulated by G. Dimitrov back in 1935:

“Fascism is an open terrorist dictatorship of the most reactionary, the most chauvinistic, the most imperialist elements of finance capital... Fascism is the power of finance capital itself...”

Later, the connection between the imperialist base and the imperialist superstructure and its ideology, fascism, was successfully reflected in the following clarified formulation:

“The highest stage of development of capitalism, i.e., imperialism, corresponds to the highest, i.e., ideology that is extremely genocidal, which is the subjective prerequisite for the withering away of market capitalist relations, since private monopoly property has exhausted its possibilities for ideological maneuver, for generating theories that mask the reactionary essence of exploitative formations. The bourgeoisie of every nation is forced to openly admit that under the dominance of monopolies, those who want to continue to increase the profitability of their capital have no other opportunity to do this except to “wet” their competitors on a global scale. Free trade, fascism and globalization differ somewhat in the terms used, but are synonymous from the point of view of the ultimate goals of the policy of establishing world domination of one ethnic group of financial capital tycoons... That is, the development of basic relations within the framework of the history of the entire exploitative society inevitably gives rise to the corresponding superstructural relations reflected in ideological concepts. Fascism is not just another, much less a purely national, personified exotic ideology. The highest form of development of the capitalist basis, state-monopoly capitalism, corresponds to a theoretical superstructure that actually substantiates the necessity and inevitability of world domination by one narrow group of owners of financial capital, i.e., the theory of fascism” [8].

Since the era of the dominance of monopoly capital has already arrived, we can say that we live in a time of active fascism, the practices of which have already unleashed two world wars and are actively constructing a third. However, one should avoid the mistake of absolutization, of labeling all bourgeois countries as extreme fascism. Fascism as the ideology and practice of the desire of the financial capital of one nation for world domination is indeed inherent in all bourgeois countries, but to varying degrees , depending on the strength of their organization and the ratio of the potentials of the bourgeois classes ruling in them [7].

2.2. Degree of reaction
The degree of reaction of the bourgeois state can be inferred from its current practice, which must be viewed in historical development.

The reactionary thinking of the bourgeoisie, its internal ideology, is dictated by the objective interests of capital, historical and other conditions. In accordance with these interests, the bourgeoisie builds its organization, which implements in practice both the foreign policy of the state in relation to other states and the management of internal processes. A number of ideological elements of policy, both foreign and domestic, are aimed at hiding the true intentions of the bourgeoisie and, therefore, do not reflect the degree of its reactionaryness. Thus, it is necessary to separate the ideology of the bourgeoisie itself (the interests of capital, ideology_for_itself) from the ideology that it constructs for other groups of the population (ideology_for_others).

An extremely reactionary form of organization manifests itself in foreign policy in the form of aggressive goals of redividing the world or maintaining dominance over conquests, and in domestic policy (in addition to the exploitation of the proletariat and ideological domination) in the form of anti-communist ideology and activities, the prohibition of communist practice and the glorification of anti-communists who successfully led the masses. Both points, as a rule, are covered up by “camouflage” ideological politics.

2.3. Interests of opposing capitals of the USA and the Russian Federation
The radical reactionary nature of the organization is clearly manifested in the activities of the US imperialist group, reaching its highest forms in states that are instruments of US aggression such as Ukraine or the Baltic countries. Since it is impossible to hide dozens of armed conflicts unleashed by the United States around the world for the purpose of enrichment and control, an external ideological element is used in the form of so-called “democratic values” designed to disguise the aggressive intentions of capital.

In the post-Soviet space (Ukraine, the Baltic states), aspects of reactionary activity [10] are expressed very clearly. Firstly, they follow US policy and declare goals of an aggressive nature towards the Russian Federation and China, disguising them under a defensive ideology. Secondly, the domestic ideological platform includes fascist collaborators of the past who were successful in practice. Thirdly, the actions of the authorities include active suppression, repression and information influence both on any communist forces and on significant masses of sympathetic citizens with memories of the Soviet past. Such a policy of radical cleansing of the political field is very costly for the bourgeois state on all sides and can only be launched as an accompanying element of external aggression, which alone can compensate for investments.

A specific feature of the current historical moment is that the bourgeois regime of the Russian Federation, after many years of hesitation, realized that the Ukrainian Maidan of 2014 was part of the course of the fascist imperialist bloc, led by the globalist bourgeoisie of the United States, to create from the Russian Federation an instrument of struggle against socialist China. Elements of a national liberation war appeared on the fault line (Donbass), and the capital of the Russian Federation decided to begin an open confrontation with the extreme reactionary elements of the world bourgeoisie in the form of a military operation and intervention in the civil war in Ukraine.

2.4. Politics and ideology of the Russian Federation
By the time of the conflict, the capital of the Russian Federation had shown rather disastrous results of its thirty-year activity: the highest achievement of the “grandmaster game” of the leadership of the Russian Federation was the strengthening of the country after the shameful Yeltsin times, however, in the international arena the Russian Federation remained a relatively weak bourgeois state, which was not torn to shreds only because the preserved heritage of the USSR, a small number of not entirely lost leaders and the patriotic element of the people.

Organizationally, the Russian authorities responded to the interests of the national oligarchy opposing the group of reactionary foreign capital in the following way.

On the political front, this confrontation boils down to a struggle between right-wing conservative and systemic left-wing superstructure forces with Westernized liberals, who noticeably lost their ground after the start of the Northeast Military District. Any confrontation between capital groups leads to a tightening in domestic politics towards political factions that either express the interests of the enemy (Russian liberals) or do not want to fight them (Russian pacifist-patriots). This tightening took the form of a targeted, minimally necessary purge (which R. Meisner regularly broadcasts to us in a buffoonish tone) with the active involvement of the masses, political and bourgeois groups in resistance to the external aggressor.

In relation to communist forces, the absence of repression means maintaining a favorable environment for our strengthening and growth .

On the domestic ideological front, the leadership of the Russian Federation is burdened with an important task: it is necessary to awaken the population from peaceful market hibernation, mobilize those who have awakened to a state of self-sacrifice and direct their activities in the direction desired by the leadership. For this purpose, it is necessary to explain the reasons for the war, demonstrate the enemy in all its ugliness and the strategy for achieving victory. That is, in some way, close your eyes to Article 13.2 of the Constitution (“No ideology can be established as state or mandatory”) and begin ideological work to introduce “depoliticized patriotism” [9].

Building an ideological platform in a bourgeois state is not an easy task. Here it is necessary to completely emasculate the bourgeois private property essence and at the same time inflate the empty patriotic form . Practice shows that capitalist life goes on as usual, constantly worsening the position of the proletariat, and for a long time it is impossible to maintain the illusory nature of the patriotic form, because everyone notices its inconsistency with realities on their own skin. This is evidenced by the patriots themselves, who regularly sigh about how important it is to “finally find your national idea.”

To maintain the patriotic illusion, the leadership of the Russian Federation uses empty idealistic concepts such as traditional values, international multipolarity and the creative power of the “Russian world.” History is emasculated accordingly, for example in the direction of “reconciliation between the Reds and the Whites” - obviously irreconcilable political vectors. Pro-government ideologists with equal dexterity bring everyone who comes to hand to a common patriotic denominator: I. Stalin, cutting out his communist essence and reducing his image to a patriotic leader, the “red emperor”; I. Ilyin, cutting out his anti-communist and very pro-fascist essence and elevating his image to a patriotic philosopher; Nicholas II, and you never know who else from among the whites and reds, bourgeois and feudal, with whom different parts of the population sympathize.

The quality of such work, even in the bourgeois field, leaves much to be desired, as evidenced by the spontaneous protests of the population of a country with a partially preserved legacy of the USSR against the appearance of overly pro-fascist characters. However, V. Putin and his team are the embodiment and product of their era, the era of the development of Russian capitalism on the ruins of the USSR, which explains the presence of A. Dugin, I. Ilyin and the like in the ideological work of the state.

Since the ideology of the bourgeoisie itself (the interests of capital) is separated from the ideology that it constructs for others, the appearance of K. Mannerheim, A. Solzhenitsyn, I. Ilyin and others in the ideological space created for the population is not evidence that the leadership of the Russian Federation itself is being fascistized . A low-quality ideological platform for fooling the population is only a mechanism of class unification in favor of the ruling class, whose real ideology is dictated by the defensive interests of the capital of the Russian Federation, which has entered into confrontation with extremely reactionary global capital.

Roughly speaking, the captains of our Russian capitalism have an ideological mess in their heads that justifies their activities. And they act on a whim, under pressure primarily from external circumstances, trying to preserve not only capitalism itself in Russia, but also the state as such and the integrity of the country. If external circumstances, in particular the aggressive imperialist policy of the United States, had been different, then their “patriotism” would have taken completely different, but no less bizarre, forms.

2.5. Prospects for the class struggle against fascism
Having examined the bourgeois side above, we, firstly, identified the US oligarchy as an extremely reactionary group of the bourgeoisie, and secondly, we discovered that Ilyinism is not evidence of the fascisation of the bourgeoisie of the Russian Federation. Does this mean that we need to switch from criticizing I. Ilyin to criticizing the USA? Such a conclusion has no relation to science, since it is necessary to continue the research and move from the intra-class bourgeois area to the inter-class one, and therefore, recall the teachings of K. Marx about the irreconcilable class antagonism between the bourgeoisie and the working class, as well as the leading role of this antagonism in the development of society .

In the most general case, the struggle for the advance of communism should be waged by an advanced communist organization with the most reactionary forces (we are talking about specific groups of capital), since all the strength of their organization is aimed at maintaining their dominant position in the system of moribund capitalist production relations, satisfying the extremely aggravated thirst for profit and the elimination of any factors that could interfere with this - first of all, the elimination of communist forces.

However, there is no powerful communist organization either in the Russian Federation, or in the USA, or in the EU . Therefore, as a substantive assessment of the current moment, discussed in the sections above, showed, the fight against the most reactionary forces, against a specific imperialist group that carries out fascist activities in practice, as well as against its liberal proteges within the country, is being waged not by the communists, but by the weak bourgeoisie of the Russian Federation. And not all of it, but only its most organized part, which controls the top of the state.

It follows from this that the forces of the bourgeois and communist organizations of the Russian Federation are so incomparable at the moment that the task of defending or criticizing the decisions of the bourgeois government is not relevant at all : the leadership of the Russian Federation does not need support, and will deal with critics as it sees fit, from ignoring to forceful suppression.

2.6. Timely tasks
In the struggle of class opposites, it would be foolish for communist forces to rely only on the elements, while the advanced science of humanity is in our hands; a science whose existence demonstrates the need for thoughtfulness and planning in revolutionary practice. I. Stalin wrote about the five-year plan:

“To implement such a plan, it is necessary, first of all, to find the main link of the plan... The main link of the five-year plan was in heavy industry with its core - mechanical engineering.”

Only the working class, created and led by the Communist Party , can defeat world imperialism and build communism , and it is the task of its creation that is the main link of the communist agenda, and not criticism of I. Ilyin, not the fight against the bourgeoisie of the Russian Federation, not solidarity with it, and not even change of criticism from I. Ilyin to criticism of American fascism, liberal figures and the weakness of the bourgeoisie of the Russian Federation.

It is impossible to predict whether the authorities of the Russian Federation will be able to give a worthy rebuff during the outbreak of the third world war, but one thing is clear: both in the case of continuous “victories” leading to the next wars, and in the case of defeats, but sooner or later the bourgeoisie of the Russian Federation will exhaust its potential and will not will be able to ensure peace and acceptable living conditions for citizens. Large masses of the active population will be plunged into the most difficult living conditions for a long time, which will become a prerequisite for a revolutionary situation. But only a communist organization can direct this nascent movement into a revolutionary direction.

What should a party be like and how to build it? In the task of creating a party, the most important thing is to find the class-forming factor. In order to find the answer, the Breakthrough group had to carry out large-scale theoretical work to creatively comprehend the experience of communist parties of the past, relying on the heritage of the classics of Marxism.

Redin, in his work on the revolution, successfully formulated:

“The key point in the concept of revolution is not the completely correct statement about “a radical revolution in the life of society, meaning the overthrow of an outdated system and the establishment of a new, progressive system,” but what specific elements must mature, that is, accumulate quantitatively, in order to meet the requirements of progress” [ eleven].

The victorious practice does not come on its own, but is built by the hands of specific communists, armed with scientific theory and acting within the framework of a Marxist organization. An analysis of the catastrophe of the collapse of the USSR [12] showed that a communist organization is not capable of losing to world imperialism, but... on the other hand, it can perfectly cope with the task of restoring capitalism if the members of the organization, especially in its leadership, are incompetent in matters of the practical construction of communism. Only the Party of Scientific Centralism (PSC) can avoid a similar fate again [13]. Only communists, that is, people with high-quality thinking who have mastered advanced Marxist theory, can build the PNC, protect it from collapse and ensure its victorious practice.

Consequently, a party can be created only if there is a subjective element in the form of personnel who have mastered Marxism, which means that it is Marxism, its theory and history of communist construction, practically embodied in propaganda, agitation and organizational work, that are the key factor that forms class consciousness, and the revolutionary class itself. No anti-Ilinisms, anti-Americanisms or other anti...isms are such a factor.

Theory and practice show [14] that a person can only become a highly competent, conscientious Marxist himself - in the process of self-education [15] and self-education [16]. And only such people can form the cadre base of the party and lay claim to leadership of the class.

At the moment, supporters of the Breakthrough group are united around the core of the future party - the central printed organ [17].

3. Leftist reaction
Have those who in one way or another associate themselves with the communist movement coped with scientific goal setting? No, their task was not to forge personnel for the future party, but to publicly debunk I. Ilyin’s ideas - spontaneously, as a result of his appearance on the bourgeois agenda. But perhaps, as part of this spontaneous reaction, they were able, as a conclusion, to direct the reader into the mainstream of Marxist self-education? Also no.

How can one evaluate the effectiveness of such activities by representatives of the left movement, taking into account their claims to the role of a “communist mouthpiece”?

3.1. Prometheanism
We will cut off A. Rudy and others like him from the rest of the group immediately as Trotskyists, as a reactionary element. Although he is not the only one who could not diamatically understand the situation with the military confrontation [1], however, only it occurred to him to call for resistance, no one knows what kind and organized by whom. This is, firstly, a direct action in favor of an anti-communist bourgeois organization of the most reactionary kind; an organization that attacks the Russian Federation with its Ukrainian instruments. This is, secondly, a demonstrably bad way of unorganized struggle, which can cripple many destinies of followers of such Trotskyism. This makes A. Rudy an open anti-communist, hiding behind “red” rhetoric, and a provocateur.

The rest of the left-wing anti-Ilinists, for the most part, are not seen in such reactionary ways, but this in no way brings their activities closer to what could be called creative Marxism. Why?

To begin with, their activity as a method of struggle suggests, at best, civil protest. In this case, there is nothing wrong with it, but inciting protests cannot be considered communist work. Moreover, such tailist activity is similar to the economism inherent in these same leftists.

Further, the timeliness of I. Ilyin’s criticism is not substantiated in any way: criticism arises situationally as some natural response to the appearance of this “philosopher” in the rhetoric of power circles. It seems that all the reserves of creative Marxism of our “revolutionary” detachment of anti-Ilinists were spent on the conclusion about just such a struggle. Nevertheless, fascism, as we now know, is a phenomenon of slightly greater depth than its external, symbolic and even ideological manifestations. Is the use by the authorities of the name of I. Ilyin or hanging signs for K. Mannerheim something more than just a game of “reconciliation between the Reds and the Whites”? Why is the government doing this right now? For what great merits did I. Ilyin appear in the media field? What exactly of his legacy does the government want to use and how closely? Why do you need to waste time on this? Are there more important tasks for communists now? The squad has no answers: it literally acts instinctively.

Meanwhile, a government experienced in political games is an organization that knows how to control the behavior of a potential or actual enemy. Just as the authorities of the united West, for ten years since the Kyiv Maidan, have long studied the behavior of the Russian authorities for lack of reaction regarding the constant small crossing of previously “red lines”, if it is accompanied by commercial or reputational “carrots”, so the Russian authorities quite regularly check “ red" signs, Solzhenitsyn, Ilyin and others for the aggressiveness of their reaction.

And, finally, what are the practical results of the left’s attempts to fight with the help of I. Ilyin’s criticism?

For example, what conclusions will the average person draw after reading at least 50 volumes of detailed criticism of the left? One can imagine that he will limit himself to simple indignation; participation in civil protests cannot be ruled out. But it is much more difficult to assume that he will study Marxism, which is why our left-wing anti-Ilinists do not mention this (except that K. Zhukov sometimes suggests that the proletarians of all countries unite, but how and with whom exactly is unclear).

A more terrible result is the tailism of anti-Ilinists: unconscious support for liberal student protest. In the apt expression of our comrade Bystrov, “ this brethren is only capable of acting as a liberal tail ” [2]. And here the most pro-SVOsh K. Zhukov smoothly steps onto the same path that the reactionary A. Rudoy had previously jumped onto.

Let's summarize.

Such criticism of I. Ilyin can bring a healthy effect on the part of ordinary citizens. However, if the one who proudly calls himself a communist did not justify its timeliness, did not indicate the path of the revolutionary struggle, then his activity can be characterized as Prometheanism . Most of I. Ilyin’s left-wing critics have a history education and are well aware of the results of the populists’ movement among the people. That is, about the uselessness of the activities of a collective of “lovers of the people” who are not united into a party and not armed with advanced revolutionary Marxist theory. Just as I. Ilyin did not benefit from his studies of G. Hegel, so for left-wing anti-Ilyinists, knowledge about populism remains a dead set of textures, not understood in essence and not used for revolutionary practice. The matter does not change at all depending on the magnitude of the leftist deviation in I. Ilyin’s criticism, nor on the number of quotations from K. Marx or V. Lenin in the texts. All that remains is to wait for the natural evolution of such views - the moment when some A. Rudoy proposes to prepare for V. Putin the fate of Alexander II and thereby solve all social problems.

Prometheanism is the result, firstly, of the inability to determine the next timely step in practice, and secondly, of the inability to evaluate the results of one’s own activities for revolutionary nature. Such inability and misunderstanding of communist practice, coupled with the desire of some members of the detachment to do at least something, leads to tailism: pro-government at best, liberal at worst.

3.2. Methodological errors
From the above it follows that I. Ilyin himself, the appearance of his quotes in the mouths of government officials, as well as the battle between adherents and critics around his reactionary “creativity” are themselves a deeply secondary topic. Paying attention to the ideological attempts of the authorities of the Russian Federation to inflate the patriotic form by hiding the class essence of communist, bourgeois, feudal and anti-communist figures of the past and present at a time when these same authorities provide relatively comfortable conditions for the development of the communist movement is possible only for educational and self-educational purposes.

At the same time, it is very important to study the reaction to this topic of those who consider themselves to be members of the communist movement. Here the fuss around I. Ilyin becomes a litmus test for identifying opportunism and errors of thinking.

The small mistake of I. Ilyin’s critics is that, having determined a course of action, even if it were correct, they immediately run to the people. However, the lower the level of Marxist competence of those sections of society with whom work must be carried out, the more difficult this work is. Interaction with the masses - the ability to learn from them, the ability to change them, direct them and organize them into the working class - is generally impossible without the presence of an authoritative party of scientific centralism [14] and without party members completely devoting themselves to this work. Therefore, a Marxist in the making during self-education can carry out his theoretical work and agitation without the risk of causing harm to society only among people of his level or among thoughtful novice supporters of the emerging PNC, only after conscientious deliberation and only in a format agreed upon with the Central Organ of this organization [15] . It is possible and necessary to engage in harmless educational activities, but it is too early for educators to sign up as Marxists, even if in the process they use all possible communist words and quotes.

The main mistake of I. Ilyin’s left-wing critics is that they trivialize the fight against fascism. Instead of precisely planned communist practice, based on an accurate Marxist assessment of the current moment, they are engaged in empty activity - an unsuccessful battle with the appearance of fascism, the treatment of accidentally noticed symptoms of the disease. Such an absolutization of the fight against fascism is the primitive logic of a spontaneous, ill-conceived struggle against all fascism at once. The activity of searching for and destroying all the swastikas that are painted in the vast expanses of the Russian Federation could be just as useless.

Both mistakes are a consequence of insufficient insight into the essence of the current moment and unscrupulous study of Marxism, with the natural result of either zero influence on the movement towards communism, or, even worse, acting as a liberal tail.

Ya. Dubov
06/16/2024

(Sources at link.)

https://prorivists.org/94_antiil/

Google Translator

******

Collapsing Empire: Georgia and Russia Restore Diplomacy
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on JUNE 15, 2024
Kit Klarenberg

Image

It’s been reported by Georgian media that Tbilisi is now “actively working” to restore the country’s diplomatic relations with Moscow, severed by the then regime in August 2008, following its trouncing in a calamitous five-day war with Russia. While this may seem mundane to outside observers, it is a seismic development, amply testifying to the extraordinary pace and scale of the US Empire’s self-inflicted collapse.

Over decades, Washington has invested enormous energy and money into turning Georgia against Russia. Tbilisi has deep and cohering cultural, economic, and historic ties with its huge neighbor. Today, nostalgia for the Soviet Union is widespread, and Joseph Stalin remains a local hero for a significant majority of citizens. While public support for Euro-Atlantic integration and EU and NATO membership is strong, recent developments have prompted many Georgians to reconsider their country’s relationship with the West.

Since taking office in 2012, the ruling Georgian Dream has struck a delicate balance between strengthening Western ties and maintaining civil coexistence with Moscow. This has become an ever-fraught dance since the outbreak of the Ukraine proxy conflict, with external pressure to impose sanctions on Russia and send arms to Kiev perpetually rising. Against this backdrop, there have been multiple apparent plots to overthrow the government and install a more belligerent administration.

In order to neutralize the threat of a coup by Georgian Dream’s domestic and international adversaries, legislation compelling foreign-funded NGOs – of which there are over 25,000 in Tbilisi – has been passed. Its gestation produced a bitter showdown with the EU and US, ending with lawmakers who voted for the law being sanctioned by Washington and the threat of further action to come. Along the way, Georgian citizens were confronted with the poisonous reality of their relationship with the West. And they didn’t like it.

‘Foreign Assistance’

Contemporary media reports on Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan “revolution” either ignored the unambiguous Western role in fomenting it or dismissed the proposition as Russian “disinformation” or “conspiracy theory”. Ever since the proxy conflict began, Western journalists have become even more aggressive in rejecting any and all suggestions that the insurrectionary upheaval in Kiev was anything other than an overwhelmingly – if not universally – popular grassroots public revolt.

Yet, it was not long ago that the Empire unabashedly advertised its role in orchestrating “color revolutions” throughout the former Soviet sphere, of which Maidan will surely in future be considered the final installment. In 2005, intelligence cutout USAID published a slick magazine, Democracy Rising, documenting in detail how Washington was behind a wave of rebellious unrest in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Ukraine, Yugoslavia, and elsewhere during the first years of the 21st century.

Image
An excerpt from Democracy Rising

Two years prior, the Washington-sponsored “Rose Revolution” unseated longtime Georgian leader Eduard Shevardnadze, replacing him with handpicked, US-educated Mikheil Saakashvili, a close associate of George Soros. Shevardnadze had since Tbilisi’s 1991 independence from the Soviet Union eagerly served as a committed agent of Empire, opening up his country to far-reaching privatization for the benefit of Western investors and extensive societal and political infiltration by US and European-funded organizations.

In a bitter irony, such subservience was Shevardnadze’s ultimate undoing. Brussels and Washington exploited this space to lay the foundations of his overthrow, financing individuals and organizations who would serve as shock troops in the “Rose Revolution”. For instance, Democracy Rising reveals that in 1999, US funding “helped Georgians draw up and build support for a Freedom of Information Law, which the government adopted.” This allowed Western-funded media and NGO assets “to investigate government budgets, [and] force the firing of a corrupt minister.”

The US, moreover, bankrolled the training of “lawyers, judges, journalists, members of parliament, NGOs, political party leaders, and others” to wage war against their government. The official purpose of this largesse was to “give people a sense that they should regulate the government.” As per Democracy Rising, “the Rose Revolution was the climax of these efforts.” Following Tbilisi’s November 2003 election, US-financed exit polling suggested the official result – pointing to the victory of a coalition of pro-Shevardnadze parties – was fraudulent.

Scores of anti-government activists from across the country then descended upon Tbilisi’s parliament building, ferried on buses paid for by Washington. Nationwide demonstrations led by US-bankrolled NGOs and activist groups raged for weeks, culminating on November 23 with activists storming parliament brandishing roses. The very next day, Shevardnadze resigned. One recipient of Western support remarked in Democracy Rising, “without foreign assistance, I’m not sure we would have been able to achieve what we did without bloodshed.”

As the USAID pamphlet noted, many US-financed and trained assets in Georgia central to the Rose Revolution went on to become officials within Saakashvili’s government. One, Zurab Chiaberashvili, was appointed as chair of Tbilisi’s Central Election Commission from 2003 to 2004, before becoming mayor of Tbilisi. He was quoted in Democracy Rising as saying:

“Under US assistance, new leaders were born…[the US] helped good people get rid of a bad and corrupted government…[this assistance] made civil actors alive, and when the critical moment came, we understood each other like a well-prepared soccer team.”

The Empire’s in-house journal Foreign Policy has conceded the results of the “Rose Revolution” were “terribly disappointing”. Far-reaching change “never really materialized,” and “elite corruption still continued apace.” Saakashvili was no more democratic or less authoritarian than his predecessor – in fact, his rule was brutal and dictatorial in many ways Shevardnadze’s was not. Questions abound about his involvement in several suspicious deaths, he directed security services to assassinate rivals, and at his personal behest, prisons became politicized hotbeds of torture and rape.

The Empire could forgive Saakashvili all this though, for further facilitating his country’s economic rape and pillage, and even more crucially, intensifying Tbilisi’s anti-Russian agitation locally and internationally. This crusade came to a bloody head in August 2008, when Georgian forces, with US encouragement, began shelling civilian positions in the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moscow intervened to decisively defend the pair. As many as 200,000 locals were displaced in subsequent battles, with hundreds killed.

Dissident journalist Mark Ames visited sites of the fighting in December of that year and witnessed “an epic historical shift” – “the first ruins of America’s imperial decline.” The Georgian army had been trained, armed, and even clothed by the US over many years, only to be comprehensively crushed by Russia’s military – and there was “no American cavalry on the way.” His first-hand insights led Ames to dub the outbreak of war that year, “the day America’s empire died.”

Image
A road in Tbilisi, Georgia

Ames had previously visited Georgia in 2002 to report on the arrival of US military advisors to the country. As the journalist records, “At the time, the American empire was riding high.” TIME magazine had recently celebrated George W. Bush’s inauguration with a column declaring that Washington was “the dominant power in the world, more dominant than any since Rome,” and thus positioned “to re-shape norms, alter expectations and create new realities,” via “unapologetic and implacable demonstrations of will.”

Image

US military expansion into Georgia was one such bold “demonstration of will.” Military advisors were dispatched ostensibly to train Tbilisi’s soldiers to combat “terrorism”. In reality, as Ames wrote, the purpose was to tutor them “for key imperial outsourcing duties.” It was expected that “Georgia would do for the American Empire what Mumbai call centers did for Delta Airlines: deliver greater returns at a fraction of the cost.” The move would also secure Washington’s “strategic control of the untapped oil in the region.”

The benefit for Georgia? “[Moscow] wouldn’t fuck with them, because fucking with them would be fucking with us – and nobody would dare to do that.” In the event, however, Saakashvili’s intimate bromance with the West was no deterrent at all. The blitzkrieg’s success, moreover, left Russia “drunk on its victory and the possibilities that it might imply”:

“Now it’s over for us. That’s clear on the ground. But it will be years before America’s political elite even begins to grasp this fact…We have entered a dangerous moment in history – America in decline is reacting hysterically, woofing and screeching and throwing a tantrum, desperate to prove that it still has teeth. Russia, meanwhile, is as high as a Hollywood speedballer from its victory…If we’re lucky, we’ll survive the humiliating decline…without causing too much damage to ourselves or the rest of the world.”

The Maidan coup starkly showed the Empire failed to learn lessons from the 2008 war, and Ames’ hope that Washington’s “humiliating decline” could be endured by US citizens and politicians alike “without causing too much damage to ourselves or the rest of the world” was futile. The West is now struggling to confront its undeniable defeat on Ukraine’s eastern steppe and accept the unraveling of its long-running efforts to absorb Moscow’s “near abroad”, openly mulling direct intervention in the proxy conflict. God help us all.



https://libya360.wordpress.com/2024/06/ ... diplomacy/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14433
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Location: Turtle Island
Contact:

Re: Russia today

Post by blindpig » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:39 pm

Lyceum named after Dzerzhinsky
June 17, 21:17

Image

Lyceum named after Dzerzhinsky


The BSU Lyceum in Minsk was officially named after Felix Dzerzhinsky, the educational institution’s Telegram channel reported on Monday.
“By BSU Order No. 408-OD, the BSU Lyceum was named after the outstanding native of the Belarusian land Felix Edmundovich Dzerzhinsky ,” the message says.
It also notes that the lyceum expresses gratitude to the Ministry of Education and the Belarusian State University for supporting the initiative of the institution’s staff.

Let us recall that in March of this year, the director of the lyceum, Tatiana Mamchits, conveyed to the rector of BSU Andrey Korol a collective appeal from employees who propose to name the educational institution after Dzerzhinsky.
Dzerzhinsky is a famous Soviet statesman. He stood at the origins of the creation of the state security service. In Minsk, an avenue is named in his memory, and the monument is located opposite the KGB building.
In addition, the Brest border Red Banner group bears his name. It was awarded for high performance in service, combat and political training.

https://sputnik.by/20240617/litseyu-bgu ... 94396.html - zinc

It is joyful in my heart that the outstanding Bolshevik and founder of the Cheka, Felix Edmundovich Dzerzhinsky, is increasingly being honored by his descendants.
Sooner or later, the monument to Iron Felix will return to Lubyanka Square.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9213271.html

Patriotic socialism must be built in Russia
June 18, 10:48

Image

The Russian government called for building socialism.

In Russia, it is necessary to build “patriotic socialism” instead of a market economy, which is “failing” and does not ensure prosperity for the country, said Alexey Chekunkov, Minister for the Development of the Far East and Arctic. “The Russian entrepreneur, having gone through the path of speculator - new Russian - businessman - patriotic entrepreneur in one generation (there are no others left), was actually unable to occupy the niche of the main engine of creation and progress in the economy,” Chekunkov noted in an article for RBC.

According to him, Russian entrepreneurship, due to the “sins of rapid capital accumulation in the 90s,” has remained “something immoral and parasitic” for most of society. And even positive examples like Magnit and Wildberries did not help dispel this attitude, the official believes. In this regard, in his opinion, in Russia it is necessary to abandon mass entrepreneurship and develop a culture of service and creation.
“Instead of failed “businesses” / “entrepreneurs” who are bogged down in the care of law enforcement, creators will come to the fore - more altruistic and patriotic, but no less competitive than profit hunters. On the part of the state, servants will work in conjunction with them - heirs to the traditions of Gorchakov, Muravyov-Amursky and Kosygin,”


Couldn’t come to terms with the inevitable? So where did this lead you? Back to socialism...

Google Translator

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9214164.html

******

Armenia Will Expose Itself To Serious Risks If It Goes Through With Leaving The CSTO

ANDREW KORYBKO
JUN 17, 2024

Image

Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye might decide to forcibly “demilitarize” Armenia once Russia no longer has any CSTO mutual defense commitments to it in order to sustainably ensure that the regional threat of Armenian revanchism never returns.

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan announced that his country plans to withdraw from the CSTO at a future date after suspending its membership earlier this year, which he symbolically revealed on Russia Day (equivalent to Russia’s July 4th) and right after agreeing to strategically partner with the US. He justified this on the basis that his allies are “plotting a war” against Armenia with Azerbaijan. These two pieces here and here should help the reader understand why this development was so predictable.

To summarize, Russian-Armenian relations have been troubled since Pashinyan swept into power in a 2018 Color Revolution and then rapidly deteriorated after the 2020 Karabakh War with Azerbaijan, following which this trend accelerated once Baku regained full control over that region last September. In parallel with the aforementioned, the US and France ramped up their efforts to “poach” Armenia from the CSTO with promises of military support, which worsened those two’s ties with Azerbaijan.

The West envisages turning Armenia into its regional bastion for dividing-and-ruling the South Caucasus, which could take the form of militarily supporting the revival of Armenian revanchism against Azerbaijan. There’s no realistic chance of that happening anytime soon though since Azerbaijan trounced Armenia in 2020 and last year. The only reason why Azerbaijan didn’t “finish the job” by “demilitarizing” Armenia in order to sustainably ensure its own security is because of Russia’s CSTO mutual defense commitments.

Observers might therefore wonder why Armenia would want to leave that organization and therefore expose itself to the exact same scenario that Azerbaijan has been pining to implement but has been unable to solely because it doesn’t want to risk a war with its close Russian partner. After all, it’s unrealistic to expect Armenia to join NATO during the six months between announcing its withdrawal from the CSTO and then actually leaving, especially since Turkiye would never support this.

In theory, Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye could then “demilitarize” Armenia once Russia no longer has any mutual defense commitments to that country, which NATO would be unable to prevent since it won’t go to war against either – let alone both – and it has no easy way to resupply Armenia like it does Ukraine. With that in mind, Armenia’s recent progress on delimiting its border with Azerbaijan could also in theory remove the pretext upon which its neighbors could “demilitarize” it, thus ensuring its security.

Nevertheless, either or both of Armenia’s neighbors could still “demilitarize” it anyhow “just to be on the safe side” from the perspective of their national interests, so leaving the CSTO irresponsibly opens Armenia up to serious risks without any tangible benefits whatsoever. Additionally, even if neither of them “demilitarizes” Armenia right away, they might do so at a later time if it begins to pose a latent threat to their security through Western arms imports and potentially hosting Western advisors.

In other words, the West might replicate the Ukrainian model of clandestinely turning Armenia into a regional security threat all while gaslighting that no such threat supposedly exists, all until it becomes impossible to deny upon that bloc and its latest regional proxy formalizing their security ties. There’s no way that Azerbaijan and/or Turkiye would let the situation get anywhere near that point so observers should expect a “special operation” in the South Caucasus if the West hasn’t already learned its lesson.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/armenia- ... to-serious

******

RILEY WAGGAMAN: JUSTICE FOR SCOTT RITTER (AND HIS RUSSIAN SPONSOR WHO WAS ARRESTED BY THE FSB)!
JUNE 17, 2024
By Riley Waggaman, Substack, 6/14/24

On June 3, US Customs and Border Protection officers seized Scott Ritter’s passport as he was boarding a flight to Istanbul en route to Russia. The former UN weapons inspector was booked to speak at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum before embarking on a 40-day tour of Russia organized by Alexander Zyryanov, the head of the Novosibirsk Region Development Corporation.

Zyryanov was also prevented from traveling to St. Petersburg: The Novosibirsk FSB arrested him just a few hours before Ritter was supposed to fly out of JFK International Airport.

While the confiscation of Ritter’s passport has received extensive coverage in alternative media (and rightfully so), there is a conspicuous lack of discussion in independent media about Zyryanov’s curiously timed detention.

I hope that this blog post will help remedy this odd information blackout.

— Riley


“We want to have you as our guest”
How did a businessman from Novosibirsk come to be Ritter’s point man in Russia?

In a July 5, 2023 interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda, Zyryanov said he had been following Ritter for the “last 2-3 years” and decided to contact him upon learning of Ritter’s “dream” of visiting Russia:

I wrote him a letter saying, “Scott, I invite you, I will show you Russia without embellishment, as it really is. We want to have you as our guest.”

And he replied that he really wanted to come, but it would be difficult. He wrote: “It will be very difficult for me to live in America if I just fly. But if my book about the history of relations between America and the USSR during the disarmament of the 80s was published in Russia, then it would be easier for me, there would be fewer complaints from the Pentagon, the CIA, the FBI and everyone else.”

He sent his book in English. Our professional translators translated it, and then I spent six months looking for where to publish it. And so I went to the Komsomolskaya Pravda Publishing House. They successfully released the book, met Scott and took him to 12 cities and regions of Russia.


Zyryanov paid for everything himself. He claims he sold his “empty apartment” to finance the book’s publication and Ritter’s 12-city tour.

Image
source: kp.ru

Ritter’s March 2023 trip was followed by even more ambitious plans: Zyryanov told Komsomolskaya Pravda that he was working with Ritter to bring influential Americans to Russia, including Tucker Carlson (who later traveled to Moscow to interview Putin in February of this year).

Image
source: kp.ru

Ritter returned to Russia at the end of December. During his 24-day trip, he gave numerous interviews to Russian media, and recounted his visits to Chechnya, Crimea, Zaporozhe, Kherson, Lugansk, and Donetsk in a series of articles published by RT.

While Ritter was making splashes in Russian media, Zyryanov was reaching English-language audiences. With the help of an interpreter, he appeared alongside Ritter on Andrew Napolitano’s “Judging Freedom” program on January 11. A week later, he participated in a special edition of Ritter’s “Ask the Inspector” livestream.

“He’s like Tom Cruise in Hollywood,” Zyryanov said of Ritter while answering questions on “Ask the Inspector” about their time together in Russia.

Image
Ritter and Zyryanov answering questions from Komsomolskaya Pravda’s Moscow studio on January 19, 2024. source: rumble.com

Within four months of Ritter’s return to the US, Zyryanov had already organized another—and even more ambitious—tour of Russia for his American friend. On May 23, Ritter revealed that he would soon embark on an “epic journey” across the Russian Federation:


source: Telegram
The announcement included a slideshow highlighting Ritter’s close friendship with Zyryanov.

“Friendship is the glue that holds relationships together, whether it be among nations or between individuals. […] I will be returning to Russia in June and July to continue the project of friendship that Alexander and I embarked on last year.”

Image
Image

A week later, Ritter began marketing a “challenge coin” with proceeds “going to help fund the costs associated with the making of a three-part documentary film, Waging Peace, which covers the three journey’s undertaken by Scott Ritter in his search for the Russian soul and the ‘real’ Russia.” The coin featured Ritter, his podcast co-host Jeff Norman, and Zyryanov.

Image
source: Telegram

If you visit ScottRitter.com you can still purchase the coin for $50—but you will not find any mention of the arrest of his “dear friend” who is prominently featured on the collectable. You will have to look elsewhere for that information.

“What kind of bribe are we talking about here?”

Zyryanov was arrested on June 3 and charged with taking a bribe in the form of “various services”.

Prosecutors claim he asked two businessmen to pay 9.5 million rubles to promote a film festival hosted by the Development Corporation. In return, they purportedly received “priority” contracts worth over 60 million rubles. Zyryanov is accused of using the arrangement to receive “personal PR” in the media.

Zyryanov expressed bafflement at the charges brought against him, noting that the film festival in question was intended as a Putin reelection campaign event that had been approved by both the Kremlin and the Central Election Commission. He told reporters who came to his court hearing:

How can it be a bribe to hold an event, namely the Family Film Festival, agreed upon by the presidential administration, approved by the election headquarters of a candidate for head of state and held under an agreement with the Central Election Commission? The media coverage did not contain information about my identity. As part of the festival, we showed 53 films to city residents, more than 3,000 spectators attended the event. What kind of bribe are we talking about here? I’ve held dozens of events, including sports and culture. Four times I organized the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Northern Military District, which was financed by businessmen. Can this also be considered a bribe?

Zyryanov isn’t the only VIP who has been targeted by the Novosibirsk FSB in recent weeks. His arrest coincided with the detention of several other high-profile businessmen and politicians in Novosibirsk, prompting media speculation that Zyryanov had fallen victim to an “intra-elite” feud ahead of next year’s regional elections.

Image
Local media wrote on June 4 about the arrests of five “VIP officials” in Novosibirsk, including Zyryanov (pictured second to left). source: ngs.ru

At his arraignment hearing, Zyryanov denied his guilt and claimed that his arrest by the FSB Directorate for the Novosibirsk Region had been “ordered” by “one of the regional leaders”.

“Since November, they have been hinting to me that it would be a good idea to leave my position, because one of the leaders of the region is interested in promoting his protégé,” the head of the Development Corporation told reporters.

Image
source: ngs.ru

Image
Russian outlets used not-so-subtle methods to question the true motives behind Zyryanov’s arrest. source: versia.ru

As one local media outlet explained:

In March, immediately after the end of the presidential campaign, the security forces revived the temporarily subdued machine of arrests of Novosibirsk officials , deputies, representatives of government and para-government structures. The number of arrests went into dozens when on the morning of June 3, law enforcement officers came for those involved in new criminal cases, among whom was the head of the Novosibirsk Region Development Corporation, Alexander Zyryanov.

The interests of several influential alliances converge and collide in the region. […] The claim that we are witnessing a conflict among elites is clearly supported by the words of Alexander Zyryanov himself at his court hearing, although he did not utter the name of the Chairman of the Legislative Assembly Andrei Shimkiv or Governor Andrei Travnikov. The head of the Corporation simply said: “since November they hinted that it would be a good idea to leave my position, because one of the leaders of the region wanted his protégé to take it.”

[…]

The development corporation works with commercial structures and is focused on attracting investment to the region. On March 15 and 16—that is, on the days of voting for the President of Russia—the organization hosted a film festival, Family Traditions, at the Pobeda cinema. What is the connection between investments, elections and this event? The connection is that the re-elected Vladimir Putin declared 2024 the Year of the Family, and the Development Corporation organized a film festival in support of the presidential nomination and presented it in advance at a meeting of the election headquarters.

Overcoming the demographic crisis is one of the government’s priorities. The business and political community in the region is asking the question: what did the Development Corporation do wrong by attracting private “partners” in support of the “Year of the Family”? By opening a domain with the self-explanatory name “family-filmfestival.rf”, you can read: “2024 has been declared the Year of the Family and the Novosibirsk Region Development Corporation supports this initiative, therefore, together with its partners, it is organizing a festival where all family members will find something to their liking.”


Local media also collected reactions from regional politicians who expressed support for Zyryanov and puzzlement over the allegations against him.

Image
source: sib.fm

Russian news reports about Zyryanov’s arrest pointed to the fact that the businessman had personally traveled to East Ukraine to deliver supplies to Russian troops.

Image
source: sib.fm

Zyryanov will remain in pre-trial detention until August 2. The court denied his request for house arrest so that he could take care of his 78-year-old mother, who is recovering from two strokes. His alleged co-conspirators in the case were released.

“This is an internal Russian thing, none of my business”
Ritter has remained tight-lipped about his “dear friend’s” arrest, choosing either to ignore his detention altogether or employ ambiguous language while mentioning it in passing.

In his first media appearance after having his passport seized, Ritter had the following exchange with Andrew Napolitano:

Napolitano: Was I with you?

Ritter: No, you weren’t. Actually, you weren’t with me because I made a phone call to you earlier in the morning recommending that you not travel to Russia. And it had nothing to do with what happened to me and everything to do with what happened to our sponsor, Alexander Zyryanov, who from my standpoint tragically was placed under arrest in Novosibirsk on his way to St. Petersburg.


Here’s the clip: [Clip available at original article]

Ritter suggested returning to this topic later, They never did.

(Much more at link.)

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/06/ste ... o-mirrors/

Mebbe Scott's buddy had his hand in the cookie jar. Too bad, but so what? That in no way discredits Ritter. As this guy admits, he ain't no fan of Ritter's position on the Ukraine war. So...this guy is a shit-stirrer at best.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

Post Reply