Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Jun 12, 2025 10:44 am

Diplomatic manipulations
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 12/06/2025

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“There's nothing new about the weekend attacks. I know there's a perception that they should be seen as a response to Operation Spiderweb, but that's not the case. People who say this don't understand that this isn't the first month of the war. Russia has been doing this for years. To give just one example, the day before Operation Spiderweb, they attacked us with 480 drones and missiles,” Zelensky said in an interview with the Hungarian outlet Valasz Online . “They are firing missiles at civilian targets after we successfully attacked their military assets,” the Ukrainian president added. The statement is in line with presenting Ukraine as an innocent victim that only attacks military targets and is being saturated by the biblical revenge of someone who, in his barbarity, only knows how to react to defeats by attacking a peaceful people.

To do this, we must forget that the hundreds of Russian drones are the counterpart to the hundreds of Ukrainian drones against the Russian Federation, as well as reports that can be read this week in pro-Ukrainian media such as El País . “A random house in a random town near the Pokrovsk front,” begins a report by Luis de Vega about how Ukraine has camouflaged its drone assembly in residential homes on the different fronts. Echoing the news, which states that these types of places are proliferating “like mushrooms” and recalling that this information was already known, Ukrainian journalist in exile Anatolikh Sharij indicates that “when the Russians find these types of facilities,” Ukraine alleges that the Russians “ fly [their drones] against civilian areas.”

The speech is useful, as it consolidates the image that Ukraine wants peace at all costs while Russia negotiates in bad faith and attacks with everything it has to prevent any progress in the negotiations. It also contributes to the attempt to convince Donald Trump that he should support Kyiv and abandon the attempt to offer Moscow incentives for a diplomatic resolution. Ukraine's priority since Donald Trump came to power has been to take advantage of the US president's vision of both incentives and threats to peace through force to achieve increased military supplies to Kyiv and sanctions against Moscow.

For the moment, both the Republican administration's idea of ​​attracting Russia and the European one of sanctioning the Russian economy to the point of exhaustion have failed. Naively, Trump seemed to believe that offering Russia the economic reopening of its market to US companies would be enough to get the Kremlin to agree to cross several of its red lines—such as the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine as part of a peace agreement—and stop the war. Equally naive, Ukraine and its European allies remain confident that, 17 sets of sanctions later, economic warfare will force Russia to the table and accept peace . “We would have ended all this yesterday. So every day is very difficult. It’s been difficult for a year because of the losses. World leaders can, of course, speculate about how much longer Ukraine can hold out, but we hope the world will stop Putin. The United States could impose sanctions and, together with Europe, could figure out how to influence China,” Zelensky said in his interview with the Hungarian media outlet, echoing Kaja Kallas’s idea that it is Beijing that makes it possible for Russia to continue fighting, or that of Alexander Stubb, who a year ago stated that “one call from President Xi Jinping can resolve this crisis.” The passage of time and the reality that Ukraine only depends on its allies to continue fighting has not erased the dream of Russia being a colony of China that they have sometimes tried to present.

What has worked in both kyiv and Moscow is the perception of the Kellogg-Fleitz plan, the idea of ​​threats and incentives that underlies Trump's war policy. Hence, both capitals felt it necessary to attend the Istanbul negotiations so that the US leader would perceive that it is the other side that is sabotaging a possible agreement. The distrust between the parties is such that it took five days for Ukraine to agree to accept the bodies of 1,212 dead Ukrainian soldiers whose bodies had been left in territory captured by Russia. Moscow, for its part, has received 27 from Ukraine, following a huge imbalance that openly contradicts the dogma that Russian casualties significantly outnumber Ukrainian ones. Like a beginner, Donald Trump made the same mistake that all national and supranational authorities—including Antonio Guterres—have made in the past, seeing certain gestures as a turning point that demonstrated a change in attitude. The US president saw in the first prisoner exchange, the largest since 2014, the possibility of the start of something big . The subsequent bombings, the cross-accusations, the angry reactions, and the second Istanbul meeting, which lasted only an hour, have shown that his wishes were nothing more than the naiveté of someone who wants to believe in his ability to change the course of a conflict whose resolution will require much more work. This is also the claim of Volodymyr Zelensky, who in his interview with the Hungarian media referred to the Istanbul process.

According to Zelensky, Russia is delaying the negotiations "by trying to weaken the positions of Western partners." "After all," the Ukrainian president insists, "it's easier this way. They're professionals at this: they're the absolute world champions of lying. In diplomatic terms, they're manipulators. Those with whom our delegation is negotiating are like that too." Russia, Ukraine asserts, the country that delayed the Minsk negotiations for seven years by falsely claiming to defend the signed agreements—now claiming they would not be implemented because they were unworkable—is simply lying and trying to stall. There's some truth in this, since it's Russia that's advancing on the front lines, but it's no less true that Ukraine doesn't want negotiations like the one in Istanbul to prosper, with which Moscow is trying to reach a final agreement that will definitively consolidate the post-war order, the scenario most feared by kyiv. The solution is always the same. “It would be good if the mediating countries didn't focus on what they stand to lose from sanctions—the economic disadvantages they would face or what would happen to space or satellite cooperation,” Zelensky said, clearly singling out the United States, which is seeking to restore economic relations with Russia as part of a deal on Ukraine, “and instead focused on what the negotiations are about: the war, the fact that people are dying. The rest can be discussed in bilateral talks.”

The Ukrainian discourse is clear and seeks to untether the ceasefire from a broader resolution that would determine the post-war conditions and, above all, the security situation that will remain in Europe. This is Ukraine's main trump card: trying to impose negotiations that address only the aspects that benefit it—it is kyiv that is struggling to fill its ranks and that most needs a ceasefire to recover—leaving any other aspect to an uncertain future and a meeting between presidents in which it hopes to have the help of its allies. "If the war remains just one piece in a larger puzzle, your position will be weakened," he insisted. "As long as this is the case, the Russians will not change their agenda or their lies," Zelensky declared, making it perfectly clear that the resolution to the war cannot be a security agreement that guarantees peace on the continent, but rather a settlement that involves only Ukraine. In other words, the Ukrainian president hopes to reach an agreement that addresses only one of the three aspects of the conflict: the Russia-Ukraine dispute, without closing the civil war aspect, since the territories would remain something to be dealt with in the future, nor the Russia-West confrontation, on which kyiv's continued usefulness as a tool for its European and North American suppliers depends.

To achieve this, Zelensky has significantly limited the issues his delegation sent to Istanbul has the capacity to discuss. “Our memorandum is the basis for the negotiations,” Zelensky stated, referring to a text as unrealistic as the Russian memorandum, which he described as an unacceptable ultimatum. “Based on this,” the Ukrainian president continued, “our delegation has the mandate to discuss only humanitarian issues, the issue of prisoners of war and abducted children, or the ceasefire.” “But they do not have the mandate to discuss Ukrainian sovereignty or territorial integrity. That is our own constitutional mandate,” he clarified, clinging to the idea of ​​​​postponing indefinitely the discussion on the territorial issue, which, although not the most critical—as is security—requires an understanding, even if only temporary. Without it, any agreement is unworkable, and the Istanbul negotiations will remain a brief and crude dialogue about prisoner exchanges and the demand for the return of the 339 minors that Ukraine has managed to put on a list after three years of talking about tens of thousands of children kidnapped and deported from frontline areas.

The fact that the Ukrainian president has openly admitted that he has not authorized his delegates to conduct any political negotiations—something particularly reminiscent of the Minsk talks, where Kyiv flatly refused to negotiate political points with Donetsk and Luhansk—has gone completely unnoticed by the Western media, which, like Ukraine, is focused on claiming that it is Russia that does not want to negotiate. “In a surprising admission, Zelensky told the Hungarian outlet Valasz Online that the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul has only been authorized to discuss humanitarian issues, such as prisoners of war and corpses. He asserted that issues relating to Ukraine's territory and sovereignty can only be negotiated between him and Putin. But Zelensky's own decree prohibiting him from speaking with Putin remains in effect,” commented Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin on Tuesday, one of the few to mention the statements.

“We have repeatedly said that if we receive adequate security guarantees,” insisted Zelensky, who has always equated the appropriate term with guarantees similar to NATO’s Article V, which makes an agreement impossible, “that prevent Putin from continuing the war, then there will be time to decide on territorial issues. By diplomatic means, not with weapons.” In other words, Ukraine will only negotiate humanitarian issues in Istanbul or hear that Russia accepts the unconditional ceasefire that Kiev is trying to impose, while promising a diplomatic struggle to recover lost territories in the future. As has always been clear, Ukraine hopes to achieve its absolute priority, the security issue, leaving the door open to continue pressuring Russia to achieve through sanctions what it has not achieved through military means. The combination of Ukraine’s stance of rejecting any political negotiation and its promises to prevent a final agreement from being reached make an agreement practically unfeasible. Unless Ukraine’s allies, especially the United States, impose otherwise.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/12/manip ... lomaticas/

Google Translator

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From cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued a directive on mobilizing to the front all rear Volkssturm soldiers who do not have official armor. This also applies to the air defense men.

Which is what I wrote about yesterday - all the enticements like "serve in the air defense in the rear", "guard objects in your region", etc. serve as an additional snare for naive fools. As soon as at least a little cannon fodder is collected, all guarantees and promises are quickly forgotten and they begin to load them to the front, which must be filled with fresh cannon fodder, since there are no volunteers, and the losses are huge.

This whole scheme with "voluntary entry into service in the air defense" is a test for the negative IQ of those who signed up for it

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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The life of a modern Nazi mercenary

Sergei Korotkikh interview. Assassinations and kidnappings. Chechnya and Donbass. Belarussian KGB and opposition. Organized crime and neo-fascism.
Events in Ukraine
Jun 10, 2025

If I were to choose a single favorite website, it would be the wayback machine. Modern history is both made and preserved online. But unfortunately, web pages disappear quite quickly. Luckily, unlike paper, destroyed websites can be recovered.

I am hence glad to deliver to my readers the following 2015 interview with Sergei Korotkikh, alias ‘Boatswain’. Tomorrow, I will release a long article on this fascinating figure, a true ‘Mad Mike’ Hoare of the post-soviet world. While he is linked with countless murders, decapitations, and even acid-baths, he remains at large in Ukraine to this day. Naturally, he enjoys his own military unit, which is of course under no one other than Kyrylo Budanov of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR).

The following interview was conducted in 2015 by Belarussian Partisan. This publication opposes the government of Alexander Lukashenko and holds liberal-nationalist, pro-western beliefs. The editor of said publication, and the man who conducted this interview with Korotkikh, was none other than Pavlo Sheremet. After his 2016 assassination in Kyiv, many blamed Korotkikh.

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But more on all that tomorrow. For now, here’s the interview.

A Belarusian from the Azov battalion - a hero, adventurer or Nazi? The story of Sergei Korotkikh
In early December 2015, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko gave Ukrainian citizenship by his decree to a scout from the battalion "Azov", a Belarusian citizen Sergei Korotkikh with the call sign Boatswain. The story instantly became scandalous, because Korotkikh's biography is too rich to ignore. "Belarusian Partisan" tracked down the fellow countryman and talked to him about his turbulent life.

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belaruspartisan.org

In Ukraine Sergei Korotkikh with the call sign Botsman is an undoubted hero. With weapons in his hands, he resists Russian aggression, participated in heavy fighting near Ilovaysk and Mariupol.

For Belarusians, Sergei Korotkikh, nicknamed Malyuta, is a neo-Nazi, a friend of the head of the Belarusian branch of the Russian National Unity (RNE) [a transnational fascist organization - EIU], Gleb Samoilov, and a friend of special forces Valeri Ignatovich, sentenced to life imprisonment for the 2000 kidnapping of ORT cameraman Dmitri Zavadski [an ally of the man conducting this interview, Pavlo Sheremet - EIU].

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Zavadzky - EIU

Sergei Korotkikh is accused of participating in the beating of a group of Belarusian opposition activists back in 1999, and then - in 2013 - in a bloody conflict with Belarusian anti-fascists.

It should be added that Korotkikh is a friend of another Russian nationalist or neo-Nazi nicknamed Tesak, who is now in a Russian prison.

The mere enumeration of these facts alone already causes mild consternation. Therefore, the meeting of the Belarusian with the Ukrainian president and handing him Ukrainian passport a could not but cause questions and protests on the part of Belarusian journalists.

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Belarusian journalists have never personally communicated with Siarhei Korotkikh. "Belarusian Partisan" searched for the Ukrainian citizen and asked him about everything in detail. The conversation turned out to be very long, the questions have been accumulated for almost 20 years. That's why we publish the interview in two parts.

Sergei Korotkikh was born in Toyagliati, Russia in 1974, but then moved with his parents to Belarus. From 1992 to 1994, he served in the Belarusian army and received a specialty of a specialist of technical means of intelligence. He served in a reconnaissance battalion. After serving in the army he entered the KGB school. He studied there for 2 years, but dropped out because of his connections with radical groups.

- I was expelled from the KGB school for Chernobyl Way 1996 [the largest protest against the Lukashenko government in the 1990s - EIU].

- What happened to you at Chernobyl Way?

- It's a well-known story, when there was an opposition rally in Minsk, which turned into clashes with the police. Naturally, due to my youth and desire to get some adrenaline, I was there.

- And you were there as a KGB officer?

- No. We were a group of people. Back then there were no soccer fans as such, they were just being created. It was a soccer or fan group.

- Was it that Chernobyl road when the militants of the Ukrainian UNA-UNSO [a Ukrainian fascist organization, members of whom later formed the famous Right Sector - EIU] came and overturned patrol cars?

- Yes, but in addition to the UNA-UNSO, there were also citizens of Belarus there. It was probably the first Maidan of the post-Soviet period, the first clashes with the police.

- But in 1996 you participated in Chernobyl on your own and not as a part of some organization?

- We had a group of people, we were interested in what was happening there. We could not pass by. We had connections with the BPF [Belarussian People’s Front, a nationalist, anti-Lukashenko organization - EIU], we were friends with them, we were in contact with them. In fact, they invited us there: "Here, there will be an event, come". They even paid us some money for it.

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A BPF protest against Russian-Belarussian unification in the 1990s. Note their use of the nationalist red-white flag instead of the official flag of Belarus

- So you, a cadet of the KGB school, were friends with the BPF?

- Yes. Why not? There were many of us.

- And how did you personally manage to escape punishment? Eight people from UNA-UNSO were imprisoned for that Chernobyl way protest.

- First of all, we saved some connections, acquaintances, and just paid money. They paid off the police.

- After 1996, did you participate in any opposition actions?

- No, because after that I realized that the Belarusian opposition can only frame you, but will not pull you out.

- And how did you end up in RNE, the organization of Russian fascists?

- I was a member of RNE from 1999 to 2001. I was brought there by Valera Ignatovich. Our parents came from the same village, a small town near Minsk - Krupki. And our grandmothers are cousins. That is, we have some distant family ties. And, naturally, we socialized. We practiced sports together: first judo, then karate.

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RNE in the 1990s. A photo I added - EIU.

- Did you join the RNE after you were expelled from the KGB school, in 1996?

- No, in 1996 Valera was an ideological militiaman. Valera is a unique person in his own way. He graduated with honors from the police academy, and he was an ideological cop. He didn't take bribes and joined the police because "the thieves need to be behind bars".

- Why was he expelled from Diamond?

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The Special Anti-Terrorist Unit of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, ‘Diamond’

- An injury.

- Or because of some criminal offense?

- An injury.

- But in the late 90s the police and Diamond were involved in some dubious stories related to the control over markets and entrepreneurs. Ignatovich couldn't have been involved in that?

- Naturally, not without it. Those years were the era of Lukashenko's young state, which gradually transformed into the state that Lukashenko has now. And, of course, at that time all the police were involved in criminal schemes. Nowadays, if it is involved, it is not in such a form, in any case.

- And how did you live before 1999, before joining the RNE?

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... -mercenary

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Kit Klarenberg: How Russia Quietly Revolutionised Warfare
June 10, 2025
By Kit Klarenberg, Substack, 5/25/25

All my investigations are free to read, thanks to the generosity of my readers. Independent journalism nonetheless requires investment, so if you value this article or any others, please consider sharing, or even becoming a paid subscriber. Your support is always gratefully received, and will never be forgotten. To buy me a coffee or two, please click this link.

On May 23rd, The Times published an extraordinarily candid probe into how militarised drones have irrevocably revolutionised warfare in the 21st century, with Russia far at the forefront of this radical shakeup of how conflicts are waged. Meanwhile, there is little indication NATO members even vaguely comprehend this battlefield reality, let alone a single one of them is undertaking any serious measures whatsoever to prepare for conflict such as that currently unfolding and evolving daily throughout Ukraine’s eastern steppe.

The Times piece is a first-person report of a visit to the assorted headquarters of Kiev’s 93rd Mechanised Brigade, in basements of abandoned buildings and homes throughout the Donetsk city of Kostiantynivka. It’s a devastating picture of the realities of war in the era of drones, which has “[altered] the physical make-up of the front line, the tactics of the war and the psychology of the soldiers fighting it,” while “having a devastating impact on Ukraine’s logistical ability.”

At one stage, The Times reporter was warned they were standing nine kilometres – 5.5 miles – from the nearest Russian position, and thus “well inside the kill range.” A Ukrainian soldier told them with a shrug, this was “now an easy range in which to die”:

“No other weapon type has changed the face of the war here so much or so fast as the FPV drone. Almost any vehicle within five kilometres of the front is as good as finished. Anything moving out to ten kilometres is in danger. Drone strikes at 15 or 20 km are not that unusual.”

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Since the proxy war erupted, both Ukraine and Russia have innovated in the field of FPV drones to an unprecedented degree. Kiev has become so reliant on drones, they are her “weapon of choice.” Yet, as The Times records, Russia has now decisively “taken the lead in the drone race, outproducing Kyiv in the manufacture and use of medium-range FPV drones and fibre optic variants that have changed the shape of the entire 1,200 km front line.”

Not only are FPVs “dramatically” striking ever-deeper into Ukrainian territory, but fibre optic FPV drones have gained “dark prominence over the killing fields.” While emulating the quadcopters equipped with munitions typically deployed by both sides previously, this “highly manoeuvrable killer drone” is connected directly to pilots by “a gossamer thin fibre optic thread.” This makes the contraptions difficult to track, and impervious to electronic jamming. A local infantry battalion commander told The Times:

“The changes posed by drones are so fast that concepts we implemented just a month ago no longer work now. We live in a space of perpetual fast adaptation. In the past week alone, Russian drone strike ranges have increased by four kilometres.”

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These developments have sent Ukrainian forces scurrying en masse to regroup at regular, abrupt intervals ever-further away from the front line (also known as “zero point”), while logistical convoys to Kramatorsk – “long considered the bastion of Ukraine’s defence of the Donbas region” – have been repeatedly struck. One lieutenant recorded how Russian drones “swarm our armoured vehicles whenever they get near the zero point,” obliterating them and their crews. He believes drones represent such a world-changing military hazard, “the days of the tank are truly over.”

‘Danger Estimate’

The “drone-filled skies” of Donbass are so deadly, getting soldiers and equipment to the ever-expanding frontline and back is not only a logistical and practical horror, but also a frequently suicidal task. The Times reports that until late 2023, Ukrainian infantrymen “were usually carried to a position near the front in armoured personnel carriers, walking the last few hundred metres on foot.” Today, they are dropped off up to eight kilometres away at night, walking “meandering routes through trees to avoid detection, just to take up their positions.”

Deployments to the frontline have also vastly extended in length. While at the start of 2024 Ukrainian soldiers spent “a week or two” at zero point, now they’re routinely trapped there for months at a time, “often devoid of almost any other human contact, resupplied with water, rations and ammunition by agricultural drones.” Resultantly too, “casualty evacuation has become a nightmare.” Wounded fighters are “commonly” rescued at night, and “even then the operation is fraught.” A senior logistician for the 93rd Brigade’s drone crews lamented:

“As a word ‘stressful’ doesn’t even come close to describing it. Every mission I think, ‘God forbid we get a casualty and have to work out how to get them back’.”

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Ukrainian soldiers always keep shotguns close by, to attempt to blast attacking drones out of the sky

Each night too, the Brigade’s frontline drone crews are resupplied with batteries, drone frames and munitions. Logistics teams are dropped off up to seven kilometres from the frontline, then carry up to 36 kilograms of equipment forward on foot. The risk to these crews is “enormous”. One driver was quoted as saying he conducted three missions nightly, “and I never know if each one will be my last, if I’m going to make it there and back in one piece.”

The Times records how a logistics vehicle was recently struck by a Russian drone while returning from a resupply mission. The driver lost an arm, but there were so many drones buzzing nearby, he couldn’t be evacuated from the position for five hours, so bled to death. Five Ukrainian armoured vehicles were destroyed by drones in the same sector the next day. However, none of this is seeping out to the world via the mainstream media, which once published videos of Ukrainian strikes on Russia daily.

As The Times notes, drones have adversely affected a core component of Kiev’s war effort – “media communications”. The 93rd Brigade was once “renowned for allowing reporters good access to…the war from the front.” Now though, “access for journalists has been dramatically reduced,” with “many media organisations…reluctant to commit reporters into areas within 15 km of the front.” Ukrainian brigades are likewise “wary” of the risks “they expose their own troops to in taking journalists by vehicle to the front.”

The Times reports that in 2023, the 93rd Brigade’s press officer “organised hundreds of visits to the front by reporters.” The number of visitors has now “dwindled to a trickle”. Since the proxy war’s eruption, the psychological field of battle has been where Ukraine has performed most effectively, eagerly assisted in its propaganda efforts by a media apparatus reflexively reporting the fantastical claims of officials in Kiev and their Western proxy backers as fact. Now, those days are long over. The press officer complained:

“The risks get bigger and bigger, and the coverage gets less and less. We get a journalist’s request to go to the front now and we wonder how rational is it? What is the danger estimate? What is the benefit?”

‘Technological Adaptations’

The Times report is a vanishingly rare mainstream acknowledgement of how the conflict raging in Donbass is a war unlike any other in history, and its key spheres of battle are wholly uncharted territory for Western militaries. Despite this media omertà, the proxy conflict’s unparalleled operating environment, and obvious lessons, have not gone entirely unheeded in certain elite quarters. Nonetheless, despite alarm bells ringing accordingly, they are evidently falling on deaf ears in American and European centres of power.

In September 2024, Britain’s House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee published a bombshell report, Ukraine: a wake-up call. It found the proxy war had “exposed fundamental weaknesses” in the “military strength” of both Britain and NATO, concluding London was effectively defenceless, with its “small” military reliant on unaffordable “status symbols” such as non-functional aircraft carriers. The country lacks the ammunition, armour, equipment, industrial capacity, personnel and vehicles to withstand a Donbass-style conflict for more than a few weeks at absolute most.

Amidst relentless condemnation of the state of Britain’s armed forces, the report contained a dedicated section on how “the use of drones in Ukraine” had “exposed the sheer variety of possible drone threats in a conflict scenario, ranging from disposable and commercially available drones to high-end, sophisticated ones.” It noted the development has “inserted an extra layer of weaponry between the land and air domains”, while augmenting “existing capabilities that both sides have, particularly offering new defensive options in the absence of air superiority.”

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/ ... blejsapi=0

As such, the House of Lords Committee called for London to “invest in research and development to maintain a strategic edge in drone technology (including amphibious drones), and support the rapid development of new technologies that can compete in contested environments.” It implored decisionmakers to constantly consider and monitor “the pace of technological adaptations on and off the battlefield,” and the Ministry of Defence “to support continuous adaptation,” such as “[incorporating] learning on the use of drones in Ukraine across all domains.”

The report went entirely unremarked upon by the media contemporaneously, and today there is no sign of its multiple urgent calls to action having produced any meaningful results in any tangible regard in Britain’s armed forces. Similarly, despite NATO officials openly warning the alliance is wholly dependent on US electronic warfare capabilities, which in any event are woefully inferior to Russia’s own, public indications of Western leaders or militaries taking the drone warfare revolution seriously are unforthcoming. Should they end up in direct conflict with Russia, they’ll be in for quite a shock.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/06/kit ... d-warfare/

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Ukraine has consistently over-sold the number of children moved to Russia since war began

Ian Proud

June 11, 2025

Progress on return of 339 children might still be a helpful step in the right direction

At the latest round of peace talks in Istanbul, Ukraine submitted a list of 339 children that it demands Russia returns. That’s a fraction of the number that Kiev alleges have been kidnapped since the war began. This speaks to the over-politicisation of children in this terrible war. But it also offers scope for helpful progress towards an eventual peace.

As a parent of beautiful children who I love more than anything, I find little more heartbreaking than the thought of children who are forced, petrified and upset, from their homes because of war. There have been widespread reports from the Ukrainian side that Russian has forcibly deported almost 20,000 children since the war began. This contributed to International Criminal Court decision in March 2023 to issue an arrest warrant against President Putin for alleged war crimes.

The detailed legal provisions on the treatment of civilians including children at times of war are laid out in the Fourth Geneva Convention. It requires systems to identify and register separated children, the consent of parents or guardians for temporary separation and prohibits the changing of family status and nationality.

The reality for children in war torn Ukraine has been both heartbreaking and complex. When you dig into the available western reporting, it appears that many of the ‘missing’ 20,000 are children who have moved to Russia or to Russian occupied Ukraine with a parent or relative, rather than being forcibly deported.

Since the war began there have been several negotiated returns of Ukrainian children including, in some cases, with mediation of third countries like Qatar. Ukraine recovered 1223 children in 2024 through dialogue with Russia, for example. Many cases of children returned to Ukraine have involved families separated during the invasion. In December 2024, five Ukrainian children returned of whom three had been taken to Russia by their parents. Likewise at the start of May, six children returned to Ukraine, at least three of whom had been with their parents.

A second problem relates to gaining parental consent. There are around 100,000 orphans in Ukraine most with living parents who abandoned them out of a lack of resources, or for other reasons including alcoholism, abuse and poor mental health. Ukraine itself has faced accusations about the widespread abuse and mistreatment of orphans in care, including from the BBC, since the war began. Russia itself has a similar problem with so-called social orphans as a heart-wrenching 2013 BBC report showed. According to a U.S.-based Christian charity, there are an estimated 47,000 orphans in Russia.

It is absolutely clear that orphans have been moved to Russia, but the issue of parental consent is a grey area, in circumstances where the location of parents is often unknown. Around 4500 Ukrainian orphans were also moved to Europe, with 2100 living in Poland. Orphans have been relocated to other countries on a temporary basis including Israel and Scotland. Indeed, as the Ukrainian government has pressed for all children to be returned, foster families in Italy and Spain have raised legal disputes seeking to prevent the return of children in their care to a war zone.

Likewise, Ukrainian children have undoubtedly been given Russian citizenship, as investigations by the Financial Times and New York Times have uncovered. Without going into details, I have strong reason to believe that close Russian friends of mine adopted a child from Ukraine in 2022, not long after the war started. They now consider themselves to be the adoptive parents of the child and are raising them with the level of loving care that with my wife, I bestow on my own kids. I don’t condone adoption taking place in this way and my Russian friends present me with a troubling moral dilemma, given the circumstances that led to them taking the child in. But while I pray for them, I find it harder to judge.

For any child, in any country, life in an orphanage will never be as enriching as the loving care of parents. There is some misinformation in the reporting of the challenge of displaced children. Yale School of Medicine has reported on the ‘kidnapping and re-education of Ukraine’s children, talking of ‘fracturing their connection to Ukrainian language… and disconnecting children from their Ukrainian identities.’ However, the vast majority of children displaced from the war torn parts of Ukraine (rather than its major cities like Kiev) would have been Russian speaking, not Ukrainian speaking, and these claims appear deliberately misleading.

Ukraine undoubtedly wants to paint Russia in the image of the villainous child snatcher, in part to bolster its support from western allies and to press the case that Russia is guilty of war crimes. Yet I worry that the issue of forced deportations of children from Ukraine since the war started has become overly politicised. The reality appears much more complex and nuanced, evading easy generalisation. During my diplomatic posting to Russia, my most striking observation was of how loving Russian people are towards children, including my own.

Every child, first and foremost, should be with their parents, assuming they are able to care for them responsibly. In a country that has lost hundreds of thousands of young people to death or injury in the war, the status and protection of children in Ukraine is a totemic issue for entirely understandable reasons. Under the stewardship of Ukraine’s First Lady, there has been a campaign for Ukrainian families to adopt orphans, which led to a record figure of 1264 adoption in 2024, for example.

The problem of socially orphaned children remains deep seated and, long term, it will take real economic progress, coupled perhaps with benevolent social policy, to tackle the root causes. That process can only kick into gear when the guns fall silent allowing Ukraine to start the long delayed reconstruction and regeneration of its economy.

Amidst surprise that Ukraine has sought the return of a relatively small number of children, the conclusion I draw from Istanbul is that the list of 339 is comprised of those for whom there is at least one identified parent in Ukraine who seeks their return. And if that be so, then every effort should be made to facilitate their reunion. While the issue of displaced children didn’t grab the main headlines from the Istanbul talks, progress on bringing these children home may represent an important confidence building measure as both Ukraine and Russia take small, faltering steps towards eventual peace.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... war-began/

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces are without missiles, and budgets are spent on batons - the Rada revealed where millions are disappearing

Gerashchenko: Ukraine is buying equipment to disperse demonstrations instead of weapons

While the front is in dire need of reinforcement, Kiev is betting on internal discipline. The authorities have spent tens of millions of hryvnias on special equipment to disperse demonstrators. Iryna Gerashchenko, a member of the Verkhovna Rada from the European Solidarity party, spoke about the alarming purchase in her Telegram channel.

She accused Volodymyr Zelensky's team of choosing not to finance the purchase of weapons for the army, but investing in equipment to suppress demonstrations.

"The authorities are not buying drones and anti-aircraft missiles, not weapons against the enemy, but equipment to disperse demonstrators," Gerashchenko was indignant.

She claims that 30.5 million hryvnias (735.1 thousand dollars) were allocated for these purposes. Because of this, the parliamentarian decided to criticize Zelensky for the fact that he will then again ask US President Donald Trump where the missiles and shells are.

In addition, she also reminded that in the context of the ongoing conflict, the main task of the authorities should be to strengthen defense and protect cities, and not to purchase means for internal control.

https://www.newsinfo.ru/news/military-f ... es/888282/

Google Translator

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They came out on a broad front...
June 12, 11:20

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South Donetsk direction.
Areas of the Russian troops' exit to the DPR borders. They actually exited in two areas - in the Orekhovo area (near Troitskoye) in the direction of Novopavlovka (already in the Dnipropetrovsk region)
and in the area of ​​Dachnoye, Novoukrainka and Zeleny Ugol, where our troops advanced after the liberation of Alekseyevka.
The enemy recognizes the entry of our troops into the territory of the south-eastern part of the Dnipropetrovsk region, but so far has not lost any settlements on its territory. For now.

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South of Dachnoye, the assault on Komar continues (which is already more than half ours). After its liberation, our troops will be able to advance in this direction to the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region (Komar is the last major obstacle).

The enemy's resources have recently begun to actively complain that the fortifications in the Dnipropetrovsk region on the border are mediocre, part of the money for their construction was traditionally stolen, there are not enough minefields, concrete shelters and, most importantly, personnel to hold them. In the directions of the main attacks, the Russian Armed Forces have an advantage in people, equipment and drones.

In general, the Russian Armed Forces are now quite successfully solving the tasks of liberating the southwestern part of the DPR and entering the Dnipropetrovsk region.
After occupying several settlements in the Dnipropetrovsk region, the issue of creating the Dnipropetrovsk military-civil administration will be on the agenda. Similarly, the creation of the Sumy VGA suggests itself, since a lot of settlements have already been recruited there.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9894393.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Jun 13, 2025 11:20 am

The social gap of war

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Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 13, 2025

“On May 23, within the framework of the Second Ministerial Summit on Social Policy, a delegation from more than 20 European countries visited the Lviv Resilience Center, a space opened in collaboration with UNICEF. The visit was an opportunity for the international delegation to see how Ukraine is implementing a resilience-building service to support people in times of war,” the Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy later explained. Unity, resistance, and resilience have been some of the terms the Ukrainian government has used to define itself and its population—which is never clear whether it also includes those on the other side of the front, from whom it seems to only desire the territory—over the past three years. War entails dramatic situations of population displacement, flight from the most violent areas, job losses, economic collapse, and a sharp increase in poverty.

Unlike other countries currently at war, with Gaza being the most extreme scenario, Ukraine has never been subjected to a blockade that impeded the arrival of essential goods and humanitarian aid. A tremendously demanding proxy, kyiv has criticized its allies for their military assistance, declaring it insufficient or excessively slow, but has never been able to complain about humanitarian aid. Moreover, the only blockade that has occurred in this war was the one imposed by Petro Poroshenko in 2015, contradicting the Minsk agreements, which required the resumption of economic and transport links across the front. This blockade, also a banking blockade, was not limited solely to goods but extended to the non-payment of public salaries, pensions, and social benefits to the population of Donbass. Despite years of prayers and proposals, Zelensky did not lift the blockade or resume pension payments in Donbass. Solidarity in Ukraine has always had clear limits and has focused solely on the population considered loyal.

“At the Resilience Center, children and parents who have suffered loss, displacement, and stress find a space to recover. In this safe environment, they can receive comprehensive support and social services. UNICEF supports this model, as it places the family at the center of decision-making, paving the way for a more cohesive society and a sustainable future,” said Munir Mammadzadeh, head of UNICEF Ukraine, in Lviv, presenting a resource serving the population and a country doing everything possible to improve their lives. Stressing the need for closeness to the population and communities, Ukraine's Minister of Social Policy Oksana Zholnovich added that “this is not about isolated changes, but about building a sustainable system in which communities have tools, service providers have resources, and people have access to help.” For a country that used the non-payment of its meager pensions to part of its population as a savings measure for the state coffers, Ukraine is clear about the theory. However, even in times of war and in relation to the most vulnerable populations, market-based solutions are never far away. “We have opened the social services market to also include non-governmental organizations. Furthermore, we have observed the effectiveness of several pilot services, such as supported living and assistance provided through resilience centers. Social services are a resource for cohesion, the creation of new jobs, and long-term stability.”

At that event, the minister also referred to a different kind of resilience : that of the State in its drive to recover part of the lost population. Since 2022, European countries have accepted millions of people from Ukraine, primarily women, minors, and adults, but also men of military age who, legally or illegally, had managed to leave the country. The warm welcome given by European countries to Ukraine's refugee population has moderated over time, and several countries have begun to propose ways to facilitate return, but these models have never been implemented. The war in Europe, unlike in other countries such as Yemen, Sudan, or Congo, is too important for European countries, which will not deport Ukrainian men or women to a country immersed in a high-intensity war. Moreover, countries such as Germany have openly rejected Ukraine's attempts to get refugee-hosting states to find ways to repatriate these men to Ukraine.

With that possibility closed, kyiv must seek new ways to encourage voluntary return. At the Lviv event, Zholnovich referred to the need for "employment and social services" so that "people can return." "We are actively working on this, seeking best practices and funding," he added. Given the situation, it is not difficult to understand that the return of population to the country is linked to the need for labor in the military industry and, above all, to the need to continue recruiting for the armed forces. And in a country that uses its entire revenue to the military sector, it must also be understood that any mention of funding refers to that provided or expected to be provided by its foreign partners and suppliers. They are required to provide military and humanitarian assistance, weapons and ammunition, and also investments to create jobs and ensure the return of the population that fled the war or is currently trying to avoid being recruited into the trenches.

Whatever the military outcome, armed conflicts always involve winners and losers, among whom the people generally stand out. Before the Russian invasion, immersed in the war in Donbass and implementing a series of reforms to eliminate the last vestiges of the social state from which it gained independence in 1991, Ukraine was already one of the poorest countries on the European continent. This reality has not, however, prevented the Ukrainian authorities and media from presenting the war as a struggle between civilization and barbarism, writing articles about Russian soldiers stealing washing machines, who had never seen a television, or who didn't know what a mobile phone was. All this while the employment situation in the two countries took very different paths. The shortage of personnel and the increased role of the state in the economy in the form of military Keynesianism have significantly increased the real wages of the Russian population, while in the Ukrainian case, precariousness remains the norm.

“It is difficult to assess the magnitude of the impact because official surveys on household living conditions, which are the main source of information for determining poverty indicators, have not been conducted since 2021. But according to the sample of the Institute of Demography and UNICEF, in 2023, 35.5% of people lived on incomes below the real subsistence minimum,” the Minister of Social Policy said last month, admitting that more than a third of the country's population does not reach the minimum subsistence level. According to Obozrevatel , more than 1.5 million people work in Ukraine earning the minimum wage of 8,000 hryvnias (€169 at the current exchange rate), 2,600 hryvnias below the figure that the Ministry of Social Policy considers the subsistence minimum. However, demonstrating the state's priorities, in 2025 neither the minimum wage nor, as the minister confirmed in an interview, the subsistence minimum, to which the lowest pensions and the minimum wage are linked, will be raised. This will not change. This is because the main budget priority is now defense. But we understand that this creates additional risks for the growth of poverty. Concern for the population is limited to propaganda events where Ukraine can demand funds from its allies and present itself as a country that cares for the most vulnerable people, to whom it subsequently denies bread and salt.

The impoverishment and misery of a portion of the population coexists with the diametrically opposite situation. The class component of the war has always been clear: the wealthiest people have been given the best opportunities to leave the country or avoid conscription, and they are also employed in positions and companies that have been less affected by the conflict. The neediest population has not been able to avoid the checkbook-based regulations, and those who have lost their homes or jobs have found themselves in dramatic situations. The increase in poverty is clear, but so is the increase among the most privileged. According to the National Tax Service, the number of millionaires in Ukraine increased by 61% last year. “In 2024, Ukrainians declared record incomes of 326 billion hryvnias, 107 billion more than the previous year. The number of millionaires increased by 6.6 billion, to over 17 billion, with a total income of 253.6 billion hryvnias,” wrote Biznes24 last month. “War as a lucrative business,” commented Ivan Katchanovski. And as an instrument of widening the social divide.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/13/la-br ... la-guerra/

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – June 12th, 2025
Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 12, 2025

From the Russian Ministry of Defense report: Units of the "Center" Group have actively liberated the settlements of Petrovskoe (Orekhovo) and Alekseevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic.

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact

The clearing of Alekseevka village lasted about a week, and today, its complete liberation has been announced. Meanwhile, forward units of the Russian Armed Forces are clearing the settlement of Zeleny Kut.

Four kilometers to the north, the settlement of Petrovskoe (Orekhovo) has been liberated.

Advancements from the north (Orekhovo-Filiya) and the south (Alekseeevka-Dachnoe) have encircled an Armed Forces of Ukraine defensive area of approximately 20 square kilometers. (For those that can not read the blue text in the center, the encircled Ukrainian Group is “The Da Vinci Wolves.”) The supply route for the AFU troop grouping in this salient runs along the Orekhovaya and Kalmychkova gullies (for the latter, follow the red arrow moving south from Orekhovo). By seizing positions on the banks of these ravines, our fighters will force the enemy to abandon the salient and eliminate the threat to the right flank of the advancing units in the Alekseevka-Zeleny Kut-Dachnoe direction.

In this sector, the Russian Armed Forces have begun the elimination of a key, heavily fortified AFU defensive zone at the junction of three regions: the Russian-aligned DPR and Zaporozhye, and the Ukrainian-controlled Dnepropetrovsk.

This particular area has been holding back the left flank of our grouping near the city of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). Its destruction will allow for increased activity in the Kotlyarovka-Kotlino sector.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -june-12th

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Nazi satanist mercenary money launderer

The Korotkikh story, part I. Avakov's Azov crime empire. Smuggling, financial fraud. Santa Muerte. Mercenary work in Latin America. The one-man BCCI
Events in Ukraine
Jun 12, 2025
∙ Paid
Hitman.

Satanist.

Neo-nazi.

Worldwide mercenary.

Contraband smuggler.

Money launderer.

Politician.

Decapitator.

Agent provocateur.

Russian agent.

The first man at the scene of the Bucha massacre.

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Our man in his youth

These are just some of the labels either that have either been associated with or embraced by the hero of today’s article. But first of all, a methodological note on the importance of a certain historical individualism.

When researching politics, one can look at the history of organizations. But their output is relatively self-serving and boring.

Looking at the official output of fascist organizations is particularly problematic. To begin with, they have a tendency towards constant infighting, re-branding, dissolution, and splits.

More importantly, they have a tendency towards ideological concealment. Modern Ukrainian fascists have been deeply influenced by the work of the 1980s French rightwing philosophy, particularly the concept of ‘metapolitics’.

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Alain De Benoitte, influential thinker of the French New Right

These theorists, obviously influenced by Gramsci’s conceptualization of cultural hegemony, warned against excessively explicit nazi sloganry, given the ambient anti-fascism of post-WW2 European societies. Instead, they advocated slowly reintroducing elements of such a perspective through the guise of less controversial slogans. Their approach has been summarized as:

‘the capture of cultural power [as] the precondition for the capture of political power.’

The philosophers of Ukraine’s Azov movement have long written on the need for such a metapolitical approach. And there is no better opportunity to normalize fascist ideology than war. Azov has done its utmost since 2022 - given the production quality, clearly with the help of powerful patrons - to solidify its image as ‘young, idealistic patriots fighting for the nation’s freedom’.

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Olena Semenyaka, top Azovite ideologist, is quite enamoured with the idea of metapolitics. I mentioned her in my article on the Order of Nine Angles, the Satanist cult with adherents in the Russo-Ukrainian neo-nazi scene

This purposeful concealment is why looking at the convoluted history of the individuals involved is often much more interesting than examining their organizations.

Today, we will try to trace the extraordinary life of one particularly potent neo-nazi, a man who seems to have been the second-most powerful man in the Azov movement, at least from its emergence in 2014 until 2021 - Sergei Korotkikh, also known as ‘Malyuta’, and from 2014 onwards, ‘Boatswain’ (Botsman).

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Korotkikh in 2022 on the swell of war. The text says ‘Some say, that I’m ‘not all there’. But let me tell you this - what I have is more than enough!’ On the right is the famous Azov patch, but on the left he seems to be wearing a black sun with an icon of Santa Muerte super-imposed.

He took this maritime alias the same year that Azov emerged. As we will see, he certainly has played the role of a boatswain - ‘a ship's officer in charge of equipment and the crew.’ In Korotkikh’s case, this has meant playing the role of both bank and political organizer.

Decapitations, murders, mercenary armies, organized crime, and intelligence services. Korotkikh has done his utmost to live up to his illustrious predecessors, the likes of fellow NATO gunmen “Congo Muller” and “Mad Mike” Hoare. In fact, he may well have surpassed them.

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Korotkikh’s 20th century counterpart, Werhmacht officer and NATO mercenary in Africa, Siegfried Friedrich Heinrich Müller

The story will take us from Belarus, to Russia, to Ukraine, to Cuba, and back to Ukraine again. We will explore accusations that our main character is a Russian spy, his involvement in violent clashes inside the Ukrainian neo-nazi movement, as well as the reality of his current wartime position heading a military unit under Ukraine’s chief spook and CIA-protege Kyrylo Budanov.

But to begin with, the maximally grotesque. All the better to understand the type of character we’re dealing with.

Korotkikh has boasted in interviews of fighting in conflicts that unfolded in Serbia, Chechnya, the Middle East, and Latin America. In 2021, a certain Ukrainian nationalist by the name of Oleg Sophinik accused Korotkikh of being a ‘professional killer’ who had become a member of the satanist cult Santa Muerte:

Maluta [Korotkikh - EIU] is a professional hitman. In Ecuador, he became an adherent of the satanic religious cult Santa Muerte. He boasted about having powerful guardian demons, claiming to be invulnerable to bullets and poison. Expecting anything good or remorse from a Satanist is clearly pointless. He was created to destroy, kill, and betray. Such is the nature of this doomed man. It has long been known that he works for the Russian Federation and the FSB, and he himself doesn’t hide it.

Instead of denying the allegations, here’s how Korotkikh responded:

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Next, for the enlightenment of those suffering from brain degeneration.

Followers of Santa Muerte do not place Her above God nor deny His will and His power. God the Creator made Death, and with His blessing She goes forth into the world to gather Her harvest, taking precisely those whose life's journey has, by God's will, come to an end. Holy Death is God's creation, acting according to His will and with His permission. Thus, by not believing in Death or denying Her, we deny what God deemed right to create. There is nothing in the Santa Muerte cult that contradicts Christian values - followers believe in both God and Holy Death (whom He created and who stands one step below Him), attend church, and no one finds this the slightest bit contradictory. 🤣🤣🤣👍


Like many Azovites, Satanism seems to be a major part of Korotkikh’s identity. Not only is the ‘Saint of Death’ his facebook banner, a photo of him while in Cuba in early 2014 shows him wearing the Mjölnir pendant, a Germanic neo-pagan symbol:

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"Compared with the Russian police, the Cuban police are the height of civility and good manners," said Sergei Korotkikh, a friend of Martsinkevich.
As you might start to guess, I have found it somewhat difficult to fit Korotkikh’s life into narrative structure. Working on this article over the past week, what I thought would be a single article kept on growing and growing. As such, I have decided to turn this into a series, each focusing on another thread of his life.

The second installment will cover the many killings often attributed to Korotkikh, and the claims that he is in fact a deeply imbedded Russian intelligence agent. The third article will cover Korotkikh’s leading role in the Azov movement, digging into his well-known and lesser known conflicts with other Ukrainian neo-nazis. Finally, I will take a look at Korotkikh’s post-2022 status as commander of Khorne, a military unit which is naturally a part of Kyryllo Budanov’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR). Those familiar might see many parallels with another GUR unit, the nazi satanist Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), regarding which I have a six-article series. Some figures from the RDK will, of course, appear in today’s exploration of Korotkikh’s life.

Today, however, I will go into what, funnily enough, might be the most uncontroversial part of Korotkikh’s life. I have doubts that he is in fact a Russian agent, or that he is really responsible for all the killings his USAID-funded left-liberal enemies attribute to him (plenty, definitely, but not all). But there’s one thing he has readily admitted in his various interviews - his lifelong passion for organized crime. Just documenting that has turned out to be enough for a 7,397 word article.

Korotkikh’s life of crime has made him into a sort of one-man BCCI, the famous CIA shadow bank that laundered money for NATO mercenaries, the Afghan mujahideen, and drug cartels. Korotkikh’s own admissions and corroborating third-party statements all point to the fact that Korotkikh has played the role of a skilled moving bank for a range of Russian and Ukrainian neo-nazi organizations. Wherever he goes, Korotkikh’s networks get to work creating what is essentially a para-state.

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Naturally. After all, Santa Muerte isn’t just a satanist cult - it is a belief system fanatically embraced by Latin American cartel organizations - a region that Korotkikh seems to have spent some time in.

Now, let’s take a dip into the world of the Boatswain.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... -launderer

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Ben Aris: How is Ukraine going to fund the rebuild and a growing trade deficit?
June 12, 2025 natyliesb
By Ben Aris, Substack, 5/23/25

The money the West grants to support Ukraine’s economy and military campaign gets a lot of attention. So far the West has sent a total of $133bn to Ukraine over the last three years, according to the Ministry of Finance (MinFin) and continues to get a bit less than $40bn a year, although MinFin is anticipating that to more than halve in the next two years. From a fiscal point of view, Bankova needs the war to stop in the next year or so as it will become increasingly difficult to finance.

However, there are two other big and important funding questions that get almost no attention. The first is how is the reconstruction going to be financed? The second is that the EU is about to reimpose duties on Ukraine’s exports to Europe in June and that will swell a $20bn trade deficit that is already growing in the first quarter of this year. Ukraine’s corn and metal exports – two of the biggest revenue earners – are already becoming uncompetitive with rivals. How will that be funded?

The most recent World Bank estimate of the cost of the damage to the economy was $524bn, of which $178bn is physical damage – housing, transport, energy, commerce and industry, and education sectors, including 13% of Ukraine’s entire housing stock needing repairs or rebuilding, some 2.5mn households.

Private sector investment

Where is money going to come from? The common plan is that the “private sector” will provide it but having talked to a lot of fund managers that know Eastern Europe, they all say they won’t commit anything until the risk of a second Russian attack falls away. Don’t bank on seeing funds like Blackrock or private equity houses moving in for years.

Some direct investors might move a little faster. The FMCGs (fast moving consumer goods) companies are in it for the long haul and so usually willing to invest as soon as physically possible as for them it’s all about grabbing as much market share as they possibly can as soon as they can and then hunkering down until the market eventually booms. They have decades long time horizons, which is why some beer and fag companies like Carlsberg and Phillip Morris have already made investments into factories in Ukraine. I also discovered in the early 1990s in Russia that luxury luggage companies like Samsonite get into emerging markets very early for much the same reason: people tend to buy only one set of posh luggage in their lifetimes.

But even this foreign direct investment (FDI) will be minimal and won’t touch a lot of things that need investment most. FDI has been on its back since the war started, falling 97% y/y to a mere $121mn in 2022, before bouncing back to $4.8bn in 2023 (which is still peanuts for the $200bn Ukrainian economy) and is expected to have received about $4.3bn in 2024. (The final number is not out yet.) At this rate it will take Ukraine 125 years to raise the money to rebuild its economy.

The biggest source of investment capital in the meantime is going to be development banks like the EBRD and the IFC that are going to carry the bulk of the load. Also quango development banks like the European Investment Bank (EIB), which is a proxy tool for EU-back investment aid to Ukraine, are already playing an important role. The EU is now sending Ukraine about $1bn a month, as part of the G7 $50bn loan to Ukraine, approved on June 13 at a G7 summit in Italy, backed by Russia’s frozen assets.

If you add up all the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) pledges then there is some $75bn due over the next decade, which is still not enough but can at least make a real dent in the physical damage repairs.

However, during conversations at the recent EBRD annual meeting in London it was pointed out to me that most of the extreme damage – cities wiped off the face of the earth – is in eastern Ukraine and still under Russian occupation. It is Russian President Vladimir Putin who will have to pay for that repair work, not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Now it becomes more interesting. The experts I talked to estimate that some $300bn worth of damage has been done in the occupied territories, leaving Bankova to deal with the remaining $200bn worth of destruction, which isn’t as bad anyway.

If you use the same proportions of overall damage to physical damage that the World Bank does then the bill for physical repairs in the parts of Ukraine under government control comes to a much more manageable $68bn – in other words the MDBs can fund all of those repairs and as part of the “build back better” programme I’m sure we will hear a lot about when a ceasefire comes and these programmes get under way. Indeed, people like the EBRD are already doing the preparatory work for the obvious things, starting with emergency residential construction and small scale local generators to power things like hospitals and villages.

The key issue is if enough money can be invested to start a virtuous circle of: investment that primes a local economy, leads to jobs and rising incomes, to consumption, to profits, and closes the circle with increasing investment. How much pump priming money is needed to start the wheel turning? That is an open question.

Ironically, the problem of rebuilding the occupied territories has led to a little noticed comment by the Kremlin saying that it is not entirely against signing over the frozen $300bn of CBR money to the West, however, only if “part of that money is used to rebuild the occupied territories.” Clear the Kremlin realises that hanging on to the four regions it annexed in particular is going to come with a massive reconstruction bill, as well as subsequent subsidies in the peace, if it hangs on to them. Gifting Ukraine the $300bn, but with a commitment to investing in Donbas, is one of the practical ways for the Kremlin to claw back at least some of this money, as surely at this point Putin never expects to see that money again even if there is a ceasefire.

Trade deficit

The West has sent a lot of money to Ukraine, but actually the EU is making a $20bn a year profit from trade with Ukraine. It exports more to Ukraine than it imports and those exports to Ukraine are going up.

One of the most useful funding policies the EU put in place in 2022 was to suspend the incredibly restrictive duties and miniscule duty-free quotas it granted to Ukraine as part of the pre-war Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTA). For example, Ukraine is a big producer of honey, which is also made in the EU, but the duty free export of honey quota for honey was so small that it was used up every year before the end of January.

Opening the borders to Ukrainian products allowed Kyiv to earn money from trade to supplement the Western loans and grants. And that caused problems. Last year cheap Ukrainian corn wrecked the Polish grain market causing prices to collapse in this key sector and on June 5 the EU is due to reimpose the limits and duties on 30 Ukrainian products – mostly in the agricultural sector. These won’t be dropped again until Ukraine becomes a member of the EU, in at least ten years time.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who is chairman of the Council of Europe until July, was explicit about this dual view of Ukraine saying that he supports Ukraine politically in its struggle with Russia, but not at the expense of Polish farmers, a core election constituency. There is a double standard here: the EU is willing to support Ukraine but only as long as it doesn’t bring it into a potential military confrontation with Russia and as long as it doesn’t negatively impact member states’ agricultural sectors.

In the meantime, officials in Kyiv are desperately looking for new markets and have done deals in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Zelenskiy even asked US President Donald Trump for a free trade deal, but instead has got the basic 10% tariffs everyone else got.

How big a problem this will be going forward is hard to say. When Ukraine broke off trade relations with Russia in 2014, which used to buy half of its exports, it actually proved very good at finding new markets for its goods, pretty quickly. Given we now live under Trump’s transactional multipolar world model it should be able to do the same thing again and the Global South is also open for business and increasingly active. But in the short-term, funding the trade deficit will be a headache that the EU is about to make a lot worse.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/06/ben ... e-deficit/

******

(Short one today, events intervene...)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Jun 14, 2025 11:49 am

Double standards
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 14, 2025

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Since it began in 2014, but especially since the Russian invasion in 2022, which provoked a joint Western response in defense of Kyiv, the Ukrainian conflict has been shaped by three fundamental aspects: an internal civil conflict manifested in the Donbass war; the Ukraine-Russia conflict over Crimea and Ukraine's emphasis on its NATO membership; and a broader dispute between Russia and Western countries over influence in Ukraine. This geopolitical aspect has involved, over the past three years, an attempt to weaken Moscow militarily to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, but also as part of the struggle by the United States and its European allies to maintain hegemony in the face of the rise of powers such as China and India, both members of the BRICS along with Russia, and to perpetuate the subservience of the so-called Global South. Convincing these countries that Russia is also their enemy has been one of the objectives of Ukrainian diplomacy, European foreign ministries, and the US State Department during the Biden era. Getting these countries to join the sanctions against Russia, which, since they had not been approved by the Security Council, were simply unilateral and, from their perspective, illegal and illegitimate, was the only way to meet the exaggerated expectations of Brussels and Washington.

The offensive of calls, pressure, and threats bore no fruit, and only NATO's closest friends adopted Western sanctions against Russia. Other countries, including China, but also India, a country much closer to the Western powers, avoided their imposition and, in many cases, acted as third countries in circumventing the restrictions. The paradigmatic case is not the continued sale of products that the West considers dual-use—civilian with potential military use, an argument for which China is periodically blamed for collaborating with Russia in a war in which it has not supplied weapons—but India's role as an intermediary in the sale of Russian crude oil.


Although the refusal to adhere to the sanctions was evident from the outset, the Global South's stance toward the war in Ukraine has gradually strengthened as the West's double standards regarding its own war have become apparent—one in which victims, at least those on one side, matter, as well as other conflicts around the world, where the arguments that form the basis of the West's justification for the massive mobilization of resources in favor of Ukraine are not applicable. The unequal treatment has been flagrant since February 24, 2022, when a reception system was activated for Ukrainians, men and women, who did not have to go through the asylum application process and who have been guaranteed these years—and also the next, with which protection will be extended four years after the Russian invasion—for example, the right to work legally. This welcome for the white, Christian population, victims of a geopolitically useful conflict for Western countries, clashes with the difficulties faced by those fleeing less publicized wars or those in which European countries are not indirectly fighting against an enemy in a conflict they have falsely described as existential.

Beyond the economic aspect, the treatment received by those leaders from the Global South who dared to make proposals or offer their help to end the war in Europe can be described as racist. “This is not their level,” said Mikhail Podolyak, referring to the African delegation led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who traveled to Kyiv and visited Bucha, where they reaffirmed the need to stop the war to avoid further bloodshed. Chinese mediation was also rejected, even though the first point of the roadmap was respect for the “territorial integrity of all countries.” Only the United States could act as mediator, and only European countries could be at the table supporting the hegemon and its proxy in Kyiv.

Hypocrisy was laid bare for countries in the Global South when, after October 7, Israel began a campaign of massive bombing of populated areas of Gaza, some of the most densely populated areas on the planet, and Western countries reacted by siding with Tel Aviv and reaffirming "Israel's right to defend itself." Just a year and a half later, with more than 55,000 people counted as killed—and to which must be added those left under the rubble and those who died of hunger or lack of medical care due to the Israeli blockade—and following Donald Trump's comment admitting that the population is dying of starvation, some mild criticism of Israel has begun to arrive. Without sanctions, without being banned from sporting competitions or even from shows like Eurovision, Israel continues to act with impunity before a Global South that wonders why, in the case of Ukraine, the fight against the Russian occupation justifies sending weapons, and in the case of Gaza, the resolution implies disarming the Palestinian resistance and defending the occupier's right to bomb the territory and even prevent the arrival of humanitarian aid.

The West's double standards were once again evident yesterday, when, 33 years after Israel's first warning about the imminent construction of a nuclear bomb in Iran, Israel bombed the Persian country. Countries like the United Kingdom, which in its social media reports continues to describe the war in Ukraine daily as an "unprovoked aggression," yesterday expressed only "concern" about the situation in the Middle East and called for a refrain from further escalation of tensions. So quick to condemn Russian crimes—real or imagined—Kaja Kallas simply wrote that "The situation in the Middle East is dangerous. I urge all parties to exercise restraint and avoid further escalation. Diplomacy remains the best way forward, and I am ready to support any diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation." The European Union, like the signatory countries, is not capable, however, of demanding that the party that unilaterally broke the nuclear agreement with Iran, the United States, prevent the country from being bombed by its Middle Eastern proxy while negotiations for a new treaty are underway. "I gave Iran time and again to reach an agreement," lied the man who gave the order to annul the nuclear agreement reached during the Obama administration, which Iran continued to comply with for a time in the naive hope that European countries would succeed in reviving the agreement. During his four years in office, Joe Biden also failed to revive the treaty revoked by Trump, which now imposed conditions on Tehran that were unacceptable to any country. According to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, there are two types of countries: those with nuclear weapons and those without. Trumpism wanted to create a third type: Iran, a country that is not authorized to enrich uranium.

“A few weeks ago, Trump published this NBC News interview with Ali Shamkhani on Truth Social. Shamkhani, who oversaw the nuclear dossier, said the following: ‘If the Americans act as they say, we can certainly have better relations.’ Israel just assassinated Shamkhani,” wrote Estandyar Batmanghelidj, an expert on developing economies in West Asia and well-versed in both sanctions and their impact on economies like Iran’s, yesterday. Yesterday’s attack on nuclear infrastructure, the ballistic missile program, and against scientists and negotiators of the nuclear program—which, unlike Israel’s, has always been civilian and not military—sought, in part, to perpetuate the status of Israel, a staunch Western ally, as the sole nuclear power in the region. As the message published by Donald Trump, whose administration initially claimed not to have participated in the bombings, shows, the Israeli attack will be used as another pressure tool to obtain Iran’s capitulation in the form of giving up its nuclear and missile programs. Although Israel has recently attacked or routinely attacks Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and now Iran, Tehran has only responded to Israeli attacks—in a controlled manner to avoid an escalation of the war and after warning the United States through third parties—once again, it is not the aggressor but the victim who is being condemned.

While the Global South condemned the massive Israeli bombing of various areas of Iran, including civilian areas in Tehran, demolishing buildings to assassinate nuclear scientists, only one of the seven members of the G7 condemned the attack, not the response, which has so far been minimal. Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's Foreign Minister, not only appealed to avoid further escalation, but also called Israel's actions "unacceptable." This statement contrasts with the reaction of the European countries that are members of that select group of the most industrialized nations on the planet (when this group was created in the 1970s and still thinks it acts as a world government), especially France and Germany.

The same countries that, in the Ukrainian case, reiterated Ukraine's right to self-defense and authorized kyiv to use donated Western missiles on Russian territory, claiming it was a legitimate response, now condemn any Iranian response to an attack that, this time, is completely unprovoked, as Iran, which lacks nuclear weapons, was negotiating a new agreement with the United States. "We strongly condemn Iran's indiscriminate attack against Israeli territory. Iran's nuclear program violates the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and poses a threat to the entire region, especially to Israel," the German Foreign Ministry wrote at midday, apparently in reference to the dozens of Shahed drones fired by Iran (the missiles would take hours to arrive) and those targeting local, American, and British aircraft operating over Jordanian airspace. Israel massively attacked military and civilian infrastructure in a country with which it is not at war, using missiles to do so, while Iran responded with drones with limited damage capacity, but European countries preferred to condemn Tehran rather than Tel Aviv.

France followed suit, following its foreign minister's appeal to Israel's "right to defend itself"—a staunch defense of the idea of ​​a "preemptive strike"—the same excuse used by George W. Bush to invade Iraq based on a justification—weapons of mass destruction—which he knew was false. It was even harsher with its president's words. "Peace and security for all in the region must remain our guiding principle," Macron concluded. He did so after stating that "France has repeatedly condemned Iran's ongoing nuclear program and has taken all appropriate diplomatic measures in response. In this context, France reaffirms Israel's right to defend itself and ensure its security. In order not to endanger the stability of the entire region, I urge all parties to exercise maximum restraint and de-escalation." The aggressor was justified, and the victim condemned, a detail that has not gone unnoticed. While condemning Iran for responding to external aggression, European countries are preparing their 18th package of sanctions against Russia.

Although slowly and with the caution of someone who doesn't want to completely alienate either the United States or Israel, the Russian Federation showed its support for Iran, one of the two countries that has offered it military aid over the past three years. The moment Moscow realized it had fallen behind in such important areas as drone production, the Kremlin turned to Tehran for the first Shaheds, on which it has subsequently built its own unmanned vehicles. “We express our deep concern about the dangerous escalation of tensions in the Middle East. We strongly condemn the military actions undertaken by the State of Israel on the night of June 13, which constitute a clear violation of the UN Charter, as well as the established principles of international law. Unprovoked military attacks against a sovereign UN Member State, its citizens, peaceful cities, and critical nuclear energy infrastructure facilities are totally unacceptable. The international community must not ignore such acts, which not only endanger peace but also undermine security both in the region and globally,” the Russian Foreign Ministry wrote in a message not without double standards, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine also violates the UN Charter.

The geopolitical aspect and Iran's position in international relations in general and bilateral relations with Russia in particular have also influenced Ukraine's response, which, as usual, has focused on itself. "Ukraine is following with concern the developments in the Middle East in connection with the nightly Israeli attacks on facilities on Iranian territory. Aware of the risks of further destabilization of the entire region, we declare that the continuation of hostilities may have negative consequences for international security and global financial stability, especially in the oil markets. It is essential to avoid further destabilization of the region and prevent civilian casualties," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs wrote in a preamble before getting into the matter.

“We also recall that the Iranian regime supports Russia in its illegal war of aggression against Ukraine and provides Moscow with weapons to kill Ukrainians. Iran is the source of numerous problems in the Middle East and beyond,” he continued, implicitly condemning the former attacker for entirely self-centered reasons. “We are convinced that restoring peace and stability in the Middle East will benefit not only the region but also the entire international community. Security in Europe and the Middle East is directly linked,” he insisted, adding, crucially, “In this context, we call on the international community to take joint and decisive action to overcome current security threats and to coordinately deter a group of aggressive regimes: Russia, Iran, and North Korea.” The massive Israeli bombing is justification for the West to increase pressure against the attacked country, Iran, and also against two countries that had nothing to do with it, Russia and the People's Republic of Korea, a useful scapegoat that Ukraine routinely adds to the list to artificially create a nonexistent three-country axis that the West has a moral obligation to confront. Perhaps in Iran, but certainly fundamentally in Ukraine. Iran has no right to defend itself or respond to unprovoked Israeli aggression, just as the Palestinian resistance does not deserve support in the face of the genocidal violence of the past year and a half. But the West has a moral obligation to fight Moscow and Pyongyang in the name of defending Ukraine.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/14/doble ... e-medir-2/

Google Translator

*****

Jeff Childers: Ukraine Refusing to Accept Bodies of Fallen Soldiers from Russia
June 13, 2025
By Jeff Childers, Substack, 6/11/25

Finally, Russia Today ran a controversial story this week headlined, “Ukraine’s shame: Why Kiev refuses to take back its dead and wounded.” I don’t usually cite RT, but the basic facts were confirmed in oleaginous articles from AP and Reuters. Ukraine is making a potentially fatal mistake— but it may have very few options.

Under Ukrainian law, each family of a soldier killed in action is entitled to 15 million Ukrainian hryvnias (about $360,000). In the second-round of Istanbul talks two weeks ago, Ukraine and Russia agreed to swap their war dead. Now, refrigerated Russian semis with 6,000 frozen Ukrainian soldiers sit idling on the border, with Kiev refusing their receipt.

The inglorious motive, which Zelensky adamantly denied, appears clear to everyone else. Accepting this single shipment would instantly obligate Ukraine to pay over $2 billion to grieving Ukrainian families. For context, $2 billion is about 10% of Ukraine’s entire 2025 defense budget.

Kiev’s excuse — that it hasn’t yet confirmed the identities of the soldiers, and doesn’t want to be “tricked” — is laughably absurd. Who exactly do they think Russia is trying to return? Russian soldiers? Are they worried Putin snuck a few Wagner guys in for the ride?

Even more ridiculous: what’s the harm in accepting the bodies of your own fallen comrades and then verifying their identities after? That’s how every other nation on Earth handles the fog of war. If, by some miracle of depravity, Russia did try to sneak in fake corpses, it would be a PR bonanza for Ukraine. Zelensky could’ve dragged the remains into the UN chamber and shamed the Kremlin before the world.

Don’t hold your breath waiting for corporate media to ask any of these questions.

🚀 Ukraine’s stinginess is bad enough, but the 6,000 dead are telling another story, too. Recently, Zelensky claimed that Ukraine has lost only 43,000 KIA since the start of the war. Russia identified this initial batch of 6,000 as the first shipment just from one operation— Kiev’s ill-fated foray into the Kursk salient.

If they are Ukrainian war dead, which seems almost certain, it finally puts the lie to an outrageous claim about bottom-barrel numbers of Ukrainian KIAs long suspected to be a Pinocchio-level fib. More Ukrainian lies.

Kiev’s ugly foot-dragging on taking back its own war dead could conceivably cost it the war. Ukrainian soldiers — especially new conscripts — are watching. Many already suspect their government is minimizing casualty reports and sending them into meat grinders with little transparency. If they now believe their own state won’t even bring their bodies home, or worse, is intentionally stalling to dodge benefits owed to their families?

Not too good for military morale. “Why die for a country that won’t even admit I’m dead?”

Ukrainians on the home front —mothers, widows, and siblings — already feel the absence of official clarity. What happens if they begin to believe that trucks of their own sons are sitting at the border while the government offers bureaucratic excuses and financial foot-dragging? Public grief could quickly curdle into public rage.

For Russia, this is a propaganda jackpot. They get to crow, “We’re returning the dead with dignity. Ukraine doesn’t even want them back.”

Meanwhile, in the West, taxpayers funding Ukraine wonder why billions are being sent to a regime that refuses to bury its own dead. Even a brief delay constitutes a moral failure that crosses civilizational boundaries and vexes all historical precedent.

Zelensky has survived this long on a purely moral narrative: that Ukraine is the underdog, the noble defender, the modern Sparta holding the line for civilization. But this ugly episode —thousands of fallen soldiers rotting in refrigerated limbo while Kiev dithers— punctures that PR spin like an overfilled balloon. But what can Kiev do? If it takes the 6,000, then its budget will be blasted into smithereens. No money for graft. And if it takes this 6,000, what will it do when the next 6,000 show up?

Russia is watching Kiev’s every move like a starving grizzly eying a fattened deer. Zelensky’s dithering in the headlights shows cowardice and weakness, and reveals right where the pressure point lies.

It’s not a logistical crisis. It’s not even a brief PR crisis. It’s a narrative death spiral with no way out. Critical decisions must be made soon— but what to do?

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/06/jef ... om-russia/

Strana.UA: Hunting for Operators and Drone Swarms: Drone Warfare Reaches a New Level
June 13, 2025
Strana.UA, Translated by Geoffrey Roberts, 5/22/25

Ukrainian military and volunteers are increasingly talking about the multiplying number of Russian combat UAVs on the front line, as well as increasingly intense attacks on the rear, which are destroying the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“Strana” talked to UAF soldiers and found out what is currently happening at the front in terms of the use of drones. According to them, the Russians have a particular advantage in fibre-optic-controlled drones.

“Meat assaults”, says Sergeant K. of a UAF drone platoon, “when the Russians threw themselves into frontal attacks on our positions without drone support, still occur sometimes, but less and less often. Now the assaults usually begin differently. First, the Russians launch reconnaissance drones. Our positions are then attacked with FABs and artillery. Then the Russians immediately send FPV strike drones into the air, which destroy anything still moving after the shelling. They have more and more strike drones on fibre optics, which are not hindered by anti-drone measures. Only then do they throw in assault groups of 4-5 soldiers on motorcycles and quad bikes or simply on foot, whose task is to get to our strongholds and clear the positions. At the same time, if a year ago we had a clear advantage in UAVs, now the Russians have at least parity, and in some areas a very significant advantage. What is especially alarming is that the range of strikes is increasing. Drones are already striking at distances of tens of kilometres, destroying our logistics wholesale.”

Ukrainian military also report that the Russians have launched a hunt for the crews of Ukrainian UAVs – for the pilots’ mobile command posts.

“Our drone pilots are a priority target for Russian UAVs”, said a junior sergeant with the call sign V, who is fighting in the Kupyansk direction. “Most of the frontline drones operate in the near rear. The Russians identify command posts with their reconnaissance drones and then strike them with FABs, artillery or attack drones. Hence our pilots’ hunting time has decreased sharply compared to a year ago. Now the Russians quickly identify starting locations. Our drone teams rely on speed and accuracy, as staying at the starting location for a long time is mortally dangerous. We also hunt Russian UAV crews, but we are inferior to the RF in terms of firepower. We very carefully inspect downed Russian UAVs. Among them are fewer and fewer civilian Chinese “Mavics”, and more and more new models that are not assembled on the spot. These drones are clearly factory-made. And although the insides of the drones – the boards – are still mainly Chinese, the housings, the load-bearing of the planes, are Russian”.

It is noteworthy that Ukrainian military are claiming the Russians have begun to use massive drone attacks more often. In addition, the Russian army has managed to increase the range of its electronic warfare.

Tactics for using “Shaheds” are also changing, said aid officer N, serving in the Ukrainian Air Defence Forces:

“Now their UAVs attack in swarms. Before the attack, ten to fifteen “Shaheds” make several circles distant from the target – at great distance and at an altitude of up to 4000 metres – outside the zone of destruction of our air defence. Then the “Shaheds” attack the targets, diving from a great height. At the same time, they are clearly controlled remotely, which indicates the UAVs are equipped with electronic warfare-protected communication systems. Because of these new tactics, the effectiveness of our air defence in eliminating enemy UAVs is sharply reduced”.

Yesterday, a military publication reported that Russia is increasingly using autonomous kamikaze drones, which can now strike at a distance of up to 100 km, whereas until recently they could only strike at 30 km.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/06/str ... new-level/

******

Brief Frontline Report – June 13th, 2025
Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 13, 2025

Sumy Buffer Zone

After overcoming enemy resistance, the settlement of Yablonovka (Chervonoprapornoye) has been liberated.

Image
Буферная Зона=Buffer Zone. ЛБС 31.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 31st, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The illegitimate president of Ukraine yesterday claimed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had allegedly begun pushing the Russian army out of Sumy Oblast. In reality, the AFU, using forces from the 41st and 156th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, as well as the 80th, 82nd, and 95th Separate Air Assault Brigades, launched counterattacks in the Yablonovka area. These counterattacks were repelled, the enemy was halted and pushed back, and the settlement of Yablonovka came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

The village of Yablonovka is a small settlement (approximately 150 residents) located near Command Height 222 and controls the H-07 highway. By securing this village, the coordination between the enemy’s defensive areas of Novonikolaevka-Varachino (Novonikolayevka is currently being cleared, while the entire area is operationally encircled) and Yunakovka (90% of which is controlled by our stormtroopers) has been disrupted. Supplies to the Yunakovka defensive area are currently being delivered via the unpaved road Khrapovshchina-Yunakovka, but after the liberation of Yablonovka, this advantage will be short-lived.

On the right flank of our grouping (Kondratovka-Andreevka-Alekseevka), reserves are being accumulated, regrouping is underway, and rear units are being moved up to advance toward the AFU’s defensive area near Khoten (Hoten on the map).

Pokrovsk Direction

The Russian Ministry of Defense Announces Liberation of the Settlement of Koptevo in the Konstantinovka-Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) Sector

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The small village of Koptevo (approximately 80 residents) is located on flat terrain with a gradual slope—40 meters over 4 kilometers—from Shevchenko 1 to Koptevo. It serves as a key blocking position, ensuring control over off-road access to the AFU’s defensive hub of Rovnoye-Novotoretskoye-Vladimirovka, which relies on the Kazenny Torets River and covers the network of lateral routes between Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk).

South Donetsk Direction

The Russian Ministry of Defense Announces Liberation of the Settlement of Komar in the "East" Group's Zone of Responsibility

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact

The village of Komar is a nodal element of the AFU’s defensive area, covering the southern approach to a network of enemy strongpoints forming the fortified area of Filiya-Yalta-Poddubnoye-Ivanovka. This is the right flank of the AFU’s Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) defensive sector. Increased pressure on the enemy is highly likely in the direction of Orekhovo-Orekhova Gully-Filiya, with a northern envelopment and a blocking strike toward the village of Novopavlovka.

This operation is a highly illustrative demonstration of military operational art, showcasing the coordination between two Russian Armed Forces groupings ("Center" and "East").

Further South, in the "East" Group’s Sector, Several Active Supporting Axes Have Emerged: Zelenoe Pole-Zaporozhye and Zelenoe Pole-Temirovka.

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary. Граница областей=Oblast Border*.

These axes pin down the enemy’s tactical reserves and support the main effort in the Komar area. In the event of successful progress, they could create an independent breakthrough sector toward the state border, enabling an advance into Ukraine’s Dnepropetrovsk Oblast along the watershed ridge between the Voronaya and Yanchur Rivers, while securing the right flank with the Voronaya River.

Supporting Operations Near Temirovka, the Gulyaipole (Ukrainian: Hulyaipole) Sector Has Intensified

Image
ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

Specifically, pressure on the AFU has increased along the Novozlatopol-Malinovka axis. This is an adjacent watershed (the Yanchur and Gaichur Rivers) located further south. It restricts AFU maneuver toward Temirovka-Komar and, if successful, could drive another wedge into the AFU’s defenses.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -june-13th

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Israel publicly confirms its military involvement in Ukraine

Lucas Leiroz

June 13, 2025

In the end, the Zionist entity and the Kiev regime are instruments of the same Western hegemony project

While global attention remains focused on the rising tensions between Israel and Iran, a significant development has been largely ignored by Western media in recent days: the revelation of Israel’s involvement in the arming campaign for Ukraine.

Despite publicly maintaining an appearance of military neutrality in the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, the State of Israel has quietly deepened its collaboration with Western military interests in Ukraine. Recent statements from Israeli diplomatic representatives make it clear that Tel Aviv not only politically supports Kiev but also directly participates in the military effort against Russia.

In an interview with Ukrainian media, the Israeli ambassador in Kiev confirmed that air defense systems originally supplied by the United States to Israel were transferred to Ukraine. According to him, the delivery was deliberately kept secret and away from international headlines, demonstrating Israel’s attempt to participate in the conflict without attracting negative consequences.

The omission of logistical details about the delivery reveals a clear attempt to preserve an appearance of neutrality before the public. It remains unclear whether the equipment was sent directly by Israel or through third parties, suggesting an internationally coordinated operation to avoid diplomatic friction with Moscow.

Until recently, Tel Aviv claimed a stance of non-involvement in the Ukraine conflict, citing concerns about potential Russian retaliation—particularly in Syria, where Russian forces maintain a strategic presence. However, this justification is becoming increasingly obsolete in light of Israel’s actual behavior.

Historically, Russia has acted as a stabilizer in Syria, preventing clashes between Israel and anti-Zionist groups from escalating into a broader regional war. However, the regime change in Damascus — with the new government composed of former Al-Qaeda members — shifted the balance of power in the region, favoring Israeli interests. In a sense, this change emboldened Israel to take more provocative military actions, not only regionally, but also in conflicts outside its immediate sphere of interest.

The recent neutralization of Shiite militias in Syria, which were aligned with Tehran, and the rapprochement between the new Syrian government and Israel have created a more favorable environment for Tel Aviv’s foreign military maneuvers. Feeling less vulnerable to indirect retaliation, Israel now appears more willing to expand its involvement in conflicts beyond the Middle East, such as the one in Ukraine.

It’s important to recall that the first signs of Israeli military involvement in Ukraine emerged after U.S. missiles were withdrawn from Israeli territory and transferred to bases in Eastern Europe — specifically Poland, from where they were expected to be sent to Ukraine. At the time, some newspapers reported the story, but the absence of official confirmation left the issue unresolved and debatable. Now, with official admission, it is evident that Israel’s collaboration in the Western military campaign in Ukraine is a consolidated reality.In the face of this hostile posture from Tel Aviv, Russia is likely to strengthen its regional alliances as a way to counterbalance Israeli actions. The partnership between Moscow and Tehran — recently reinforced through security and defense cooperation agreements — represents a strategic response to Western provocations against both countries and may also serve as a way to rein in Israel’s increasing “boldness,” both in the Middle East and abroad.

While Israel ignores the risks of regional destabilization by engaging in NATO-sponsored conflicts, Moscow has chosen to solidify ties with regional powers that share a multipolar vision of world order. Russian support for Iranian military development could serve as a clear warning that Israel’s involvement in proxy wars might carry a high price.

Israel’s decision to more openly support the Kiev regime marks a significant shift in its foreign policy, abandoning previous caution in favor of a stance more aligned with the interests of the Collective West. However, this move may bring unforeseen consequences — not only at the regional level but also in the structure of its bilateral relationship with Moscow.

Rather than seeking to preserve diplomatic channels with a major power like Russia, Israel appears willing to sacrifice this strategic relationship to appease its Western allies. In the long run, this gamble could prove to be a major geopolitical miscalculation — especially if Russia responds by deepening its military support for Tel Aviv’s most feared regional adversary: the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is also the political and military brain behind Hezbollah, the Houthis, and key Palestinian Resistance movements.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... n-ukraine/

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Liberation of Komar
June 13, 16:55

Image

Liberation of Komar.

An important tactical achievement of our troops.(Video at link.)

As a result of joint assault actions, the servicemen of the 336th separate marine brigade and the 37th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 36th army liberated the settlement of Komar - a large defense and logistics hub of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South Donetsk direction, prepared and equipped with fortifications, well protected by a natural water barrier and surrounding buildings. After long and stubborn battles, it came under the control of the "Vostok" group, becoming an important step towards the liberation of the Donetsk People's Republic.
A defense area of ​​4 km by 3.5 km was taken under control. Our soldiers installed Russian flags in various parts of the settlement. The Far Easterners are consolidating their positions.

As a result of the military actions, more than 1,100 buildings were cleared.
The Far Eastern "Express" of the "Vostok" group picked up speed and is breaking into the Dnipropetrovsk region at full speed. Our guys continue the offensive, breaking through the enemy's defense, demoralizing him and leaving the Nazis no chance!

@voin_dv - zinc

Thus, the Russian Armed Forces are already quite close to liberating the DPR territory south of the Krasnoarmeyskaya agglomeration.

Also liberated today were - Yablonovka (Sumy region), Orekhovo (South Donetsk direction, near the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region) and Koptevo (northeast of Mirnograd (Dimitrov). Judging by the pace of advancement, the May record for the liberation of territory will be confidently broken in June.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9897027.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Jun 15, 2025 12:29 pm

From endless war to eternal conflict
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 15, 2025

Image

“General, you’ve asked me this question repeatedly,” Keith Kellogg explained that Defense Minister Rustem Umerov responded to him during his last visit to Ukraine regarding what he meant by a ceasefire, “no shooting is no shooting.” This is how Trump’s envoy to Ukraine recounted it this week, perfectly satisfied with the words of Kyiv’s representative and fully confident that, despite precedents, words will inevitably become deeds. Kellogg prefers not to recall the period of perpetually unfulfilled ceasefire processes or episodes in which Ukraine claimed that the use of a Bayraktar to assault a trench, destroy a tank, and use a relatively spectacular video to promote Turkish drones was not a violation of the ceasefire or the Minsk agreements, which specifically prohibited all use of aerial vehicles, manned or unmanned, with the exception of OSCE drones.

In the magical thinking of the retired American general, whose rhetoric is increasingly detached from reality, progress in the peace process is tangible and is based on the search for a ceasefire, the panacea that will resolve all problems, based on the term sheets submitted by the parties. This is the Ukrainian-European proposal submitted as a counterattack to Witkoff's proposal, theoretically the final US proposal, and the memorandum delivered to Ukraine in Istanbul, which the Ukrainian delegation was not authorized to negotiate. Pretending that these two texts are not absolutely incompatible, especially on security issues and also regarding territories and, above all, the issue of sanctions, General Kellogg's idea is, as he has repeatedly stated, to combine the two texts to reach a resolution. Incredibly, given the escalation of the air war over the past two weeks—now relatively relaxed, at least temporarily—and the Russian advances in Donbas and Sumi, Kellogg believes it is close to a formulation of this union of the two maximum proposals that is acceptable to kyiv and Moscow.

Perhaps part of his naiveté—real or simulated in his role as a Ukrainian lobbyist for the Trump administration —stems from a refusal to understand that the idea of ​​a military presence by NATO countries on Ukrainian territory will be considered by Russia as a de facto accession of Ukraine to the Alliance, something it can only accept if it is militarily defeated or in exchange for incentives that will not be offered. Kellogg's security is built on the erroneous premise that the central element of this war is territory, which is currently being used only to demonstrate the strength of the parties in view of negotiations. With this belief that resolving the territorial issue is the key to achieving a truce, the US general insisted that a ceasefire means that "the territory you occupy, through the presence of your troops, and what lies behind you, is now yours."

It has been clear since 2022 that the war was heading for an inconclusive end in which neither side could impose its terms, so the territorial division would correspond, barring possible minor adjustments, to the line of contact, a repeat of what happened in the Donbass war. However, the territorial issue is, as of today, possibly the least complicated to reach an agreement and is just one of many issues that the warring parties and the US mediation will have to agree on. They will do so, moreover, in a context of maximum mistrust, possibly further heightened by the way Donald Trump has used the Israeli aggression against Iran to demand from Tehran what, in practice, amounts to its submission. But even on the territorial aspect, Kellogg is hiding part of its intentions, a common US tactic of forgetting small details and moving the goalposts when it is too late for the other side to backtrack on what has already been agreed upon. That was the experience portrayed by the UN negotiator regarding the final phase of the negotiations for the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, and everything indicates that the way in which Kellogg, which seems to have become the leading voice of Trumpism on the Ukrainian issue, intends to negotiate a much more favorable agreement for Ukraine than the roadmap developed by Steve Witkoff, and to do so while giving the impression of acting with equanimity.

The ultimate goal, beyond a ceasefire and the consolidation of the truce, "not only for Ukraine, but for Europe," is to return Russia to the group of "proper nations," a strange expression that could imply what has been translated as civilized nations or simply suggest Russia's reintegration into international relations. The strategic ambiguity that Kellogg maintains without admitting it once again demonstrates the cynicism of making Russia believe that, for example, sanctions will be lifted, a basis without which Moscow cannot reintegrate into the Western market, although this possibility is never verbalized. Everything must remain sufficiently open to be susceptible to manipulation when necessary.

Even further from reality than Kellogg's idealized and simplified vision, which refuses to understand the nature and causes of the war, are the European countries, convinced that they must continue meeting and issuing communiqués to pretend that their presence in the negotiations matters. The war in Ukraine and the reaction of Brussels and London to the Russian invasion have led to a series of changes in the geopolitical position of the EU and the United Kingdom, becoming more dependent on the United States and more isolated from the rest of the world, including China, the world's second largest power and a potential lifeline to the US ally's policy of economic warfare. With the usual smile with which she usually refers to the war in Ukraine, Kaja Kallas announced this week new sanctions and increased pressure on Russia to accept sitting at the negotiating table , something it has already done, but which the EU, like Kiev, prefers to manipulate. In a cynical exercise of projection, the version of Kiev and Brussels is that the low-level mission sent by Vladimir Putin lacks the capacity to negotiate the political aspects. As Volodymyr Zelensky admitted this week, it is actually the Ukrainian side that is only allowed to negotiate humanitarian issues, an important aspect, but one that will not determine the course of events or the resolution of the conflict.

Beyond the constant bilateral meetings with Ukraine, the most recent being Pistorius's meeting with Zelensky in Kyiv to plan future defense needs, the European Union countries and the United Kingdom continue to hold their formal summits in which a final communiqué outlines the state of continental policy, the countries determining it, and their desire for a resolution to the war. In the final communiqué from the meeting held by Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, the United Kingdom, and Kaja Kallas representing the European Union, a small group of countries that has proclaimed itself the voice of the European continent, the signatories reveal their priorities, idealism, and hypocrisy.

“We recognize that a 360-degree approach to Euro-Atlantic security is needed to protect our citizens and societies, overcome the consequences of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and counter threats and challenges across all areas in our eastern and southern neighbors and in the Baltic region,” they state in their most geopolitical paragraph, highlighting the centrality of the war in Ukraine, mentioning by name the region from which the EU’s heads of diplomacy and defense come, and calling Asia and Africa their neighborhoods . The statement goes on to stress that “we will strengthen our partnerships in regions that impact our security to address instability and foster peace and prosperity, particularly in the Mediterranean, Africa, the Western Balkans, the Black Sea region, and the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa ) , in a context deeply marked by the October 7 attack and its aftermath, with the need to achieve the release of all hostages taken by Hamas, an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and the urgent resumption of aid.” This is the only mention of Palestine, whose name is not mentioned and where the priority is the Israeli hostages, then the ceasefire, and only at the end, the humanitarian situation that is starving the most vulnerable population without the leaders of the EU and the United Kingdom being able to point out who is bombing and preventing the passage of humanitarian aid.

Beyond that paragraph, which makes the priorities clear, the entire communiqué is dedicated to condemning Russia, which, unlike Israel, deserves to be repeatedly named as an aggressor, demonstrating its intention to sustain the Ukrainian state and army and prepare for the day after the war. Although the communiqué again insists that Russia has an obligation to accept the unconditional ceasefire that Ukraine accepted under pressure from the United States, hoping that Moscow would reject it as unworkable, the rhetoric of the communiqué leaves little room for doubt. The position of these countries, which are not the most belligerent in the European Union at the moment (a position that corresponds to the Baltic and Nordic countries), is to take the Kellogg ceasefire as a starting point for a day after, when the United States will likely withdraw and the postwar period will be the responsibility (and expense) of the European Union and the United Kingdom.

“We have once again underscored our unwavering support for Ukraine, its people, its democracy, its security, sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders. A strong, independent, and democratic Ukraine is vital to the stability and security of the Euro-Atlantic region.” Empty words for a country whose democracy has for eleven years been based on allowing only the opposition deemed sufficiently nationalist. The mention of “territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders” is relevant, an implicit admission of the kind of armed and temporary peace that European countries expect from Ukraine and Russia with the perpetuation of the conflict beyond the Kellogg ceasefire. In their discourse, the European countries that have organized themselves as the central axis of decision-making adhere to the naive idea of ​​​​recovering the 1991 borders, including Crimea, something that can only be achieved through the use of massive force.

The contradiction between peace and the deliberate chronicization of the conflict with the country currently being indirectly at war is similar to the one that affirms its commitment to "a stronger and more sovereign Europe, capable of defending its citizens and interests and contributing to international peace and security," but announces that it will do so "by working together to strengthen our collective security and defense and reinforce the European contribution to NATO" and describes the Atlantic Alliance as "a cornerstone of our collective defense."

This vision of the five European Union countries, its top diplomat, and the United Kingdom, which resembles more a NATO communiqué than a political declaration, is perfectly consistent with the Kellogg plan for Ukraine: a ceasefire with which the United States can claim to have stopped the war and leave what happens next in the hands of European countries. That day after will mean, if kyiv and its European allies are in charge, the continuation of sanctions pressure, the extreme militarization of Ukraine, and the replacement of endless war with eternal conflict.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/15/de-la ... to-eterno/



Google Translator

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Zelensky’s Latest Tweetstorm Is Full Of Panic
Andrew Korybko
Jun 15, 2025

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Even if only some of what Zelensky is worried about comes to pass, especially reduced US aid and forthcoming American pressure upon Ukraine to comply with Russia’s demands, then the conflict might end sooner than expected.

Zelensky fired off over a dozen paragraphs in his latest tweetstorm on Saturday afternoon that can be read in full here. He demanded the imposition of more sanctions against Russia’s banking and energy sectors, complained about the “warm” tone of the US-Russian dialogue, expressed worries about reduced aid, fearmongered about Russia’s military-industrial complex, and pushed back against claims that he’s oppressing Russians, Russian speakers, and Russian Orthodox Christians. He’s clearly panicking.

In the order that he made his points, the first one about sanctions alludes to the proposed bill to impose 500% tariffs on Russia’s energy clients, which would likely be applied towards China and India if passes with waivers for EU countries (and probably only those that meet Trump’s defense spending demands). Politico warned that this could backfire against the US, however, while the Treasury Secretary warned that it could undermine diplomatic efforts. It’s thus little wonder that Zelensky is panicking about this.

Moving along, Zelensky’s complaints about the “warm” tone of the US-Russian dialogue are a direct response to the Trump-Putin bonhomie, the latest manifestation of which saw Putin calling Trump on Saturday to wish him happy birthday alongside discussing the latest phase of the Israeli-Iranian War. It’s still anyone’s guess whether Trump will disengage from NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine or double down on it, but judging by Zelensky’s tweetstorm, he’s taking the first possibility very seriously.

This observation leads to the third point that he made about reduced US aid, which follows the Secretary of Defense recently announcing such cuts in the next budget but without detailing how much they’ll be. While it’s possible to drastically scale up aid even in those conditions if the decision is made as proven by how much unplanned support the Biden Administration gave Ukraine in 2022, from Zelensky’s perspective, the writing on the wall is that Trump is presently disinterested in doing this.

His fourth point is the least disputable of the five since even the New York Times admitted as far back as September 2023 that Russia is far ahead of NATO in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition”. As could have been expected, Zelensky also fearmongered about Russia’s intentions by implying that it might be plotting to invade NATO, but mostly everyone is numb to that narrative by now. It therefore probably won’t be enough to convince the West, especially the US, to resume 2023-like levels of aid.

And finally, the last point that he made in response to Russia’s fact-based accusations that Ukraine is oppressing Russians, Russian speakers, and Russian Orthodox Christians is purely rhetorical and doesn’t even attempt to respond to the substance of these claims, which exposes it as hollow and him as guilty. He’s panicking because he fears that the US might coerce Ukraine into changing its domestic policies as part of Russia’s denazification demand for peace if Trump truly wants to wash his hands of this conflict.

Altogether, his tweetstorm says a lot about Ukraine’s increasingly difficult position if one reads between the lines, with this being brought about by Russia’s arrival in Dnipropetrovsk. Even if only some of what Zelensky is worried about comes to pass, especially reduced US aid and forthcoming American pressure upon Ukraine to comply with Russia’s demands, then the conflict might end sooner than expected. To be sure, this can’t be taken for granted, but it’s realistic enough of a scenario to make Zelensky panic.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/zelensky ... rm-is-full

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US defeat in its proxy war against Russia a setback for imperialism everywhere

Moscow is not going to be fooled into any settlement that doesn’t bring real security and deal with the original goals of the SMO.
Proletarian writers

Friday 13 June 2025

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Unable to admit that they have been roundly defeated, the demented warmongers in the collective west are still looking for a way to ‘pause’ or ‘freeze’ the war. In this way they hope either to continue harassing Russia’s southeastern border, or to relaunch the war at a future date, or both.

On 11 May 2025, Russian president Vladimir Putin invited Ukraine to take part in direct talks with Russia four days later, noting that Russia was seeking serious negotiations aimed at moving towards a lasting, strong peace.

President Putin’s challenge to the European Union and the USA to help facilitate the first direct face-to-face peace talks between Russia and Ukraine since the early days of Russia’s special military operation had an immediate and jarring effect on all the hypocritical mood music emanating from the collective west, which has consistently painted Russia as the enemy of peace.

Russia does not take at face value the west’s much-parroted demand for a 30-day ceasefire without preconditions. Such a ceasefire would interrupt the steady advance of Russian troops, affording a breathing space during which Nato’s Ukronazi storm troopers could regroup and rearm, thereby not drawing to a close but instead pointlessly prolonging a war that the west’s proxies cannot win.

(Be it noted that those hypocrites who brand Russia as the enemy of peace are one and the same people who are collaborating with zionism in the continuing genocide of the Palestinian nation.)

But Russia has always made it clear that serious peace talks, talks that address Russia’s pressing need for security guarantees to halt the aggressive expansion of Nato on Russian borders and the denazification of Ukraine, would be welcomed, as dealing with the root cause of the conflict. To this end, Moscow proposed face-to-face talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in Istanbul – a gentle reminder that peace had in fact been on offer at talks held in the same city all the way back in March 2022.

But the plan was sabotaged by the bizarre antics of Ukraine’s stooge-actor president Volodymyr Zelensky, who flew to Ankara

instead of to Istanbul, made a big fuss because Putin was not personally attending the talks (no such commitment had been made at this stage), had a lengthy meeting with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and then flew off, leaving the gathered diplomats kicking their heels.

Nevertheless, fearful lest the Istanbul talks should prosper despite this clear sabotage, distracting attention from their ‘ceasefire now’ monomania and actually making some practical headway in negotiating an end to the war, British prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron rallied their ‘coalition of the willing’, bracing themselves for what might come out of the next week’s impending phone call between US president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart.

What both the European imperialists in the ‘coalition of the willing’ and President Zelensky dread is that the USA will either walk away from the whole mess, leaving Europe to sort it out themselves, or will bypass the ‘coalition of the willing’ completely and pressure Kiev into accepting that Ukraine has lost the war and needs now to negotiate the terms of its surrender.

The choice of Istanbul for the talks is significant. It was there that, all the way back in March 2022, right at the beginning of the special military operation, a deal was all-but agreed between the parties. It was pressure from Washington and London (most notably via Boris Johnson) that pulled the plug on an agreement that had in fact been initialled by both sets of negotiators.

Its implementation would not only have saved billions in dollars but would also have spared hundreds of Ukrainian towns and hundreds of thousands of human lives had it been allowed to go through.

Truth to tell, there was never going to have been a positive outcome for a country whose neo-nazi leaders were willing to let US imperialism use their country as a battering ram in a proxy war against Russia.

The only heroes in this sorry tale are the Russian men and women who were prepared to give everything, including their own lives, in the struggle to defend the Russian homeland from Nato expansionism. Their feat will be remembered long after imperialism is buried.

Neither Maga nor ‘globalism’ can rescue imperialism
Whilst the media coverage of the ongoing talks on Ukraine has mostly busied itself speculating on the shifting and self-contradictory pronouncements issuing from the White House, or with Zelensky’s hysterical tantrums in Turkey, or with the latest barmy neocolonial dreams of France’s Macron and Britain’s Starmer, what cannot be concealed is the reality that the crushing victory of the Russian military over Ukrainian fascism has brought sharply into focus the isolation and fragmentation of imperialism worldwide, as its crisis of overproduction deepens.

President Trump owes his great popularity at home to posing as a champion of the resistance against globalisation, pledged to ‘making America great again’ (Maga) by bringing jobs back to America and initiating the industrial reindustrialisation of the country.

But ‘globalism’ is just another euphemism for imperialism, and imperialism is no less than the highest phase of capitalism, bringing society to the eve of the socialist revolution. Imperialism is capitalism in the age of monopoly, the age where the hunt for maximum surplus value more and more relies upon the export of finance capital and less on the export of manufactured commodities.

So Trump’s love affair with protectionism, slapping on tariffs left right and centre, hoping thereby to reverse the decay of US industry and restore the earlier availability and prestige of relatively well-paid blue collar jobs, has always been based on a delusion.

The question as to whether Trump actually believed in Maga himself, or just latched onto it as a handy tool to keep riding the populist wave, is a moot point. The historical record of protectionism in the thirties of the last century, when tariff wars resulted in the halving of world trade and hastened the onset of imperialist war, is hardly a closed book.

Trump’s fantasy of turning the clock back to the more ‘innocent’ time when the USA performed marvels of mass production, led the way in innovation and remained a master of industry and commerce as well as finance, is not going to rescue US imperialism. But then, as a matter of fact, neither will the collective wisdom of the liberal elites and neocons be able to rescue US imperialism either.

Neither a retreat into Maga nostalgia nor the slick liberalism of the wizards of high finance will suffice to help the once mighty USA to avoid humiliating collapse.

Imperialism: Expand or die
No, the only way that US imperialism can hope to get through the overproduction crisis is by finding new markets to dominate, new resources to plunder and new labour to exploit.

There are two territories that would be the most attractive in this regard: China and Russia. Dominating either of these countries would serve the double purpose of opening up a massive scope for looting and also removing from the international scene a major obstacle to imperialist meddling.

The failure to crush Russia is a devastating blow, not only to the USA, but to imperialism globally.

The proxy war against Russia, though initiated and directed by the USA, has been a collective effort by all the imperialist powers, all of whom have a vested economic and political interest in the weakening and balkanisation of Russia, especially now that Russia has survived the counter-revolutionary treachery of the Gorbachev and Yeltsin era and is taking steps to restore the national dignity and independence of the country.

What has until now united the imperialist-led west to a degree, disregarding such loftier considerations as ‘shared European values’, liberalism or democracy, has been the unspoken acknowledgment that the west as a whole has a common interest in seeing independent states like China and Russia weakened and balkanised.

Conversely, the non-imperialist majority of the world’s people have a common interest in resisting this, felt the more keenly now that there is so much at stake. The growth and development of the Brics grouping is one such example. The fraternal military assistance freely given to Russia by the DPRK and the heroic contribution of Yemeni fighters to the Palestinian resistance against zionist imperialism are two more.

Expect many more.

The gang of three – Macron, Starmer and Merz (the new German chancellor) – will find it very hard to whip up a ‘coalition of the willing’ from among European governments prepared to take over the job of fighting Nato’s war against Russia (already the Italian government has flatly refused to consider sending Italian troops to Ukraine).

Undisputed US leadership of the ‘free world’ emerged as the result of a very particular set of historical conditions, few of which now obtain. It is no good the EU trying on grandfather’s clothes and hoping thereby to command the respect which formerly came automatically with the job.

The world front of imperialism has been gravely weakened by the failure of the proxy war in Ukraine, which in turn is greatly expanding the revolutionary opportunities in the coming period.[

https://thecommunists.org/2025/06/13/ne ... perialism/

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Brief Frontline Report – June 14th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 14, 2025
From the Russian Ministry of Defense report:

As a result of decisive actions by units of the "Center" Group of Forces, the settlement of Zeleny Kut in the Donetsk People's Republic has been liberated.

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact

The Russian Armed Forces continue offensive operations aimed at destroying the Ukrainian defensive sector on the left flank of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Advancing along the Volchya River, they secured the settlements of Alekseevka and Zeleny Kut within a week.

From the south, pressure is being applied to Novoukrainka, located beyond Zeleny Kut near the border between Russia and Ukraine's Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. Two kilometers west lies Dachnoe - a forward stronghold in the Filiya-Ivanovka-Poddubnoye defensive area.

To the north, this sector is enveloped via the axis of Petrovskoye (Orekhovo)-Orekhovaya Gully-Filiya. (To find the Orekhovaya Gully on the map, follow the larger red arrow from "Orehovo" that points near Filiya.)

From the south, Russian assault groups are advancing from Komar toward Poddubnoye, Zvezda, Yalta, and Zaporozhye - key Ukrainian defensive strongholds in the area. (If you are having trouble finding Poddubnoye, follow the first red arrow from Komar to just above "Myrnoe.")

Supporting operations, designed to widen the encirclement and divert enemy reserves, are underway farther north in the Novoaleksandrovka-Muravka sector. The enemy, recognizing the threat, has begun deploying troops to pre-fortified defensive positions at Novopavlovka-Chuguevo-Cheremlyk Gully, shielding the left flank of the Filiya-Ivanovka-Poddubnoye sector. (The text just to the east of Chuguevo, Балка Черемлык, translates to "Cheremlyk Gully.")

As we previously assessed, there will be no direct assault on Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). Instead, Russian forces will execute deep flanking maneuvers to threaten the city's rear, compelling Ukrainian forces to withdraw under threat of encirclement.

Attention: There is one error on the map: “Zarya” should be “Zirka.”

Update: Okay, it isn't so much an error as it is some confusion between Ukrainian and Russian.

Update 2: The Russian for “Zirka” (star) is “Zvezda.” Mikhail has already provided a new map that I've swapped out.

Update 3: Mikhail Popov wrote:

Зто Червоная (Красная) Звезда, по картам Генштаба СССР. Украина переименовала просто Звезда. Исправления на карту сделаны.

Translation:

This is Chervona (Red) Star, according to the maps of the General Staff of the USSR. Ukraine simply renamed it Star. Corrections to the map have been made.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -june-14th

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The Horrors of Mariupol's Reconstruction
June 14, 21:07

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The horrors of Mariupol's restoration.
Scary, very scary.

(Video at link.)


The city is being restored at a good pace after the Ukrainian occupation, the population is growing steadily, you watch new videos every quarter, some new buildings and objects have already been completed and many more are being built.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9899553.html

Google Translator

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14413
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Jun 16, 2025 11:48 am

Peace and strength

Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 16, 2025

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“The new US president takes office promising to reach out to a bitter enemy. He pledges to resolve a long-running crisis through diplomacy, despite widespread skepticism that this is possible. When his initial efforts stall, Congress—including members of the president's party—loses patience and proposes sweeping sanctions to break the deadlock. European allies also grow frustrated and impose new sanctions. This is the story of the first months of Donald Trump's second term on Russia,” writes an article published in the latest edition of the influential magazine Foreign Affairs . This view is simplistic and fails to take into account that continuing the war without an expiration date was and is the priority of European countries, still trying to find their place since the change of position that has occurred in the White House regarding the war in Ukraine. European frustration, like that of Ukraine, is not due to the slowness with which Trump is moving in the negotiations, but with the negotiations themselves. European capitals and Kyiv have always been more comfortable within the framework of the progressive escalation that prevailed during the Biden era, during which red lines were gradually crossed, eventually leading to the approval of Western missile strikes on Russian territory within its internationally recognized borders. The current rejection is not of the slow negotiation process but of the idea of ​​transitioning to a model of incentives and threats in which peace through force involves, in the eyes of Kaja Kallas, Lindsey Graham, Volodymyr Zelensky, or Friedrich Merz, too much talk of peace and not enough use of force.

Reluctant to give up incentives in favor of threats, Donald Trump has yet to approve the draconian sanctions Lindsey Graham is pushing for, which would impose 500% tariffs on countries that purchase Russian energy products and do not militarily support Ukraine—namely, China and India. The imposition of these sanctions would make the current interrupted dialogue process even more unviable. Between blockades, Russia and Ukraine agree to prisoner exchanges and the return of bodies of fallen soldiers (Russia has recently handed over 4,812 to Ukraine and received 27, with no one in the West yet to consider the true level of Ukrainian casualties). "We were close to an agreement, and then things got bombed that shouldn't have been bombed," the US president lamented last week, implying that the Russian bombings, a response to a sharp increase in the Ukrainian air war that was endangering civil aviation in Russia, had derailed a process that was only on track in his imagination.

Even so, and despite the disappointment he has shown "with Russia, but also with Ukraine," Trump has not yet opted to raise the level of sanctions against Moscow or abandon Kyiv and its European allies to their fate. Nor did Trump protest or condemn the Ukrainian attack on Russian strategic bases, which damaged or destroyed nuclear bombers—part of the nuclear triad, an event that could trigger the Russian Federation's nuclear doctrine. Despite previous accusations that Zelensky was "playing with World War III," this act, undoubtedly the most dangerous of all so far, did not merit any comment from Donald Trump other than to assume a Russian response. The Ukrainian president, for his part, did refer to World War III this past week . In the extensive interview with a Hungarian media outlet, Zelensky stated, in response to the question of how long the Ukrainian people and state can hold out, that “every day is very difficult. This year has been difficult because of the losses. World leaders can, of course, speculate about how much longer Ukraine can hold out, but we hope the world will stop Putin. The United States could impose sanctions and, together with Europe, could figure out how to influence China. There’s no point in waiting to see how long Ukrainians can hold out. No one should sit and wait, because we are facing a situation that closely resembles a transition to World War III.” The comment is meaningless considering his complaint is that Western countries are not doing enough to fight Russia and Ukraine is constantly trying to gain more direct involvement in the war.

“We must work every day to communicate with each other. With powerful countries that could slow down the Russian economy through sanctions and the severing of economic ties,” Zelensky continues, after denouncing a world war that he seems to be seeking. Considering that in the same interview he openly admits that the Ukrainian negotiating delegation is only authorized to discuss humanitarian issues, kyiv's priority is clear: to demand greater involvement from its allies in the form of weapons and sanctions, and for them to be the ones to force the Kremlin to accept a peace that does not correspond to the situation at the front and the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine, but rather between Russia and NATO. This dream persists despite three years of evidence that the extreme weakness of the Russian state, which would collapse like a house of cards under sanctions, is more Western propaganda than reality.

The continuation of the Istanbul talks, which Vladimir Putin expressed support for in his June 14 call to Donald Trump to, among other things, wish him a happy birthday, is taking place in a context that could not be more adverse. In his summary of the conversation, the US president wrote on his personal social media account that the dialogue had briefly addressed the Ukrainian issue, although not as a central topic. Donald Trump's lack of interest in the war in Ukraine is now compounded by the possibility of a protracted regional war in the Middle East, which has caused Zelensky to become nervous, seeking commitments from his allies that a potential regional war will not entail a reduction in military supplies to kyiv. Ukraine has no concern for any people under attack other than the Ukrainians, but only for maintaining centrality in international relations and perpetuating military supplies.

Aware of the low importance Donald Trump gives to the war, but in need of US support, Ukraine maintains its appearance of commitment to the Istanbul process, although only to the extent that it can achieve certain benefits—recovering prisoners of war to use as propaganda first and cannon fodder later—and allows it not to be seen as an obstacle to a peace that would come under conditions it considers unacceptable. Statements such as last week's after the meeting of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, Poland, and Kaja Kallas, which insist on Ukraine's territorial integrity as a condition for peace, also demonstrate the interests of European countries, which are willing to perpetuate the conflict until impossible goals are achieved.

The global political context is also key when analyzing the chances of success in negotiations. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Russia's only ally in the Middle East is now Iran, which is also a key supplier of crude oil to China. The Israeli attack on Thursday night has already become a confrontation between two enemy countries. At a distance, since Israel and Iran do not share a border, Tel Aviv seeks to achieve regime change in Tehran and, together with its US ally, seeks the forceful submission of the only country in the region not yet subject to US dictates. After making clear in his Friday message that he intended to use the Israeli bombing, which decapitated Iran's military leadership in a single day, to force Iran to sign an agreement that would be unacceptable to any sovereign state, Trump insisted yesterday that the United States is not participating in Israel's attacks, which, according to this version, would act alone. This allegation, accompanied by the threat that Washington will use its full force if attacked "in any way," echoes the words of Iran's foreign minister. "We have documents confirming that US bases in the region support Israeli attacks against Iran. From our perspective, the United States is a partner in these attacks and must assume this responsibility," Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday.

Trump's claim of non-US involvement in the attacks—although evidently involved in defending Israel against the legitimate Iranian response, which for two consecutive nights has managed to overcome the supposedly invincible Iron Dome, causing damage in Tel Aviv and Haifa—contrasts with what the Financial Times reported , which speaks of how the United States maintained the fiction of nuclear negotiations while silently allowing the massive Israeli attack. In his statement about his phone call with Vladimir Putin, Trump wrote that the Russian president called him "primarily to discuss Iran, a country he knows very well." "He feels, as I do, that the Israel-Iran war must end, to which I said that their war should end as well."

In addition to adhering to the Western maxim of "Putin's war," in that message, Trump already describes the situation between Israel and Iran as a war, which Yuri Ushakov's summary describes in a very different way. Russia insists in its statement that "Vladimir Putin denounced the Israeli military operation against Iran and expressed grave concern about the possible escalation of the conflict, which would have unforeseeable consequences for the entire situation in the Middle East." In his call, as he had done the day before with Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin offered to mediate the situation to facilitate a return to diplomacy. With this intervention, the Russian president seeks to support an ally in returning to the negotiating table in a position other than one of absolute weakness, with the Israeli gun firing and the American gun pointed in the distance, the way Donald Trump wishes to see Iran. This is also the way Zelensky would like Russia to come to the negotiating table in Istanbul, at which point he would no longer have as much trouble negotiating political issues with Vladimir Medinsky or any other Russian envoy whose only option is to accept whatever terms are offered.

Although they are two very different conflicts, the relationship between Iran and Israel and the war in Ukraine share some similarities, including the global divide between those who have quickly sided with the United States and its proxy, and the Global South, which is demanding a return to diplomacy and condemning the aggressor rather than, as countries like Germany and France did, the Iranian response that hadn't even occurred yet. In this sense, it is significant that the Foreign Affairs article cited at the beginning presents the negotiation of the Iran nuclear deal as a model for Donald Trump.

“During George W. Bush's second term, the United States steadily intensified sanctions against Iran. When Obama came to power, he opted for diplomacy and proposed a deal under which Tehran would part with its enriched uranium stockpiles in exchange for nuclear fuel. However, in late 2009, Iran rejected the proposal. Congress responded with wave after wave of sanctions, culminating in measures that devastated Iran's oil revenues. European countries also took action and imposed an oil embargo. The combined pressure sent Iran's economy into free fall, creating the conditions that eventually brought Iran to the negotiating table. With Trump's Russia policy at an impasse, his administration would be wise to learn from Obama's experience with Iran,” the article states, proposing a negotiation based on threats and always failing to mention that Tehran strictly complied with the agreement until Donald Trump unilaterally broke it and continued to do so for another year in the hope that European allies would convince the United States to return to the framework. of the agreement.

“A particularly important lesson is that congressional initiative—although almost always unwelcome by the executive branch—can be an essential ingredient for the success of an economic pressure strategy. If Trump is serious about ending the war in Ukraine, his administration should collaborate with Graham and other hawks on Capitol Hill rather than oppose them,” the article continues, defending the path of massive coercion to impose an agreement that could have been obtained without threats at the time when unacceptable aspects were taken off the table, which Trump now demands as basic (the renunciation of uranium enrichment, something that only one country in the world, Iran, is supposed to ban).

These lessons, which experts want to teach Donald Trump to use threats against Russia as Obama and his predecessors used against Iran, are especially important in the current situation, in which the most moderate government Iran has had in decades trusted that the United States was negotiating in good faith and would not allow Israel to attack while the negotiations continued. The message currently being received by the parties directly and indirectly involved is precisely that Washington's word cannot be trusted, neither during negotiations nor even after a treaty has been signed. In reality, this type of diplomacy is what Ukraine expects from its Western allies: a resolution imposed by force that can be manipulated after the fact.

But their hypocrisy is too evident to believe that Moscow and Beijing, immersed in negotiations with the United States, have not taken note. Despite their naiveté in believing that Washington was genuinely seeking an agreement with Iran, Tehran understood that the only way for Trump not to violate an agreement was for it to bear Donald Trump's signature. With the precedent of the Iran nuclear deal, Russia also understood that any agreement reached with the United States is likely to be worthless in the event of a political change if everything is not properly and securely tied up.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/16/la-paz-y-la-fuerza/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Russia has completed the transfer of all frozen assets to Ukraine. Today, the last tranche of the agreed 6,000 was transferred. And even with interest - another 60 were added on top.
In total, 78 bodies of our fallen soldiers were taken from the enemy. The final figures for the exchange are 6,060 for 78.

The cocaine Fuhrer played the fool for a long time, but in the end, the dead had to be taken. According to Western media, Russia still has many such assets. After the exchange, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that another 2,239 frozen assets could be transferred to Ukraine in the near future. Without conditions. Just take them.


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How to become a millionaire (realities of Ukraine)

A 19-year-old Ukrainian decided to "make money" on the war - he signed a contract, they promised a million for injury. Less than a month had passed when the guy stepped on a mine and lost his leg.

It immediately turned out that to receive compensation, you need to "serve" for 1 year. And if there is no year, then there is no million.

In the end, they charged 80 thousand hryvnia. They deducted taxes and gave out as much as 8 thousand.
@bella_Ciao44

P.S. And for another million you can buy 15,625 cheeseburgers or 185 years of premium subscription to Netflix ( https://t.me/boris_rozhin/163465 )

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Colonelcassad
Kursk borderland (data from @hoperator_ak12 )

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy attempted to sneak into the settlement of Tyotkino from the village of Iskriskovshchina (Sumy region) twice. Assault groups of the 225th separate regiment were met by our FPV drones and UAV drops, as a result, most of the Ukrainian Nazi infantry was eliminated.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Ukraine can’t stop it, maps can’t hide it: Russia’s summer blitz redraws the war
June 15, 2025 natyliesb Leave a comment
By Sergey Poletaev, RT, 6/13/25

Sergey Poletaev is an information analyst and publicist [journalist]. He specializes in Russian foreign policy and in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Born in 1980 in Moscow, Poletaev is a graduate of the Faculty of Journalism of Moscow State University. In 2017, together with researchers Oleg Makarov and Dmitry Stefanovich, he founded the information and analytical project Vatfor.

As the spring sun gave way to the heat of early summer, a new phase of the military campaign began to unfold across the front lines – and this time, the initiative clearly belongs to Russia.

After months of grinding attritional warfare, Russian forces have launched a sweeping spring-summer offensive that is already delivering tangible results. From the borderlands of Sumy to the contested hills near Chasov Yar and the approaches to Dnepropetrovsk, the tempo has shifted decisively. Ukraine, battered and overextended, is now struggling to contain simultaneous breakthroughs across multiple sectors.

The silence of Western media around these developments only underscores the magnitude of what is unfolding on the ground. A coordinated advance is in motion – methodical, strategic, and, by all appearances, effective.

Sumy direction: Establishing a buffer zone
Following the liberation of Sudzha in early March 2025, the fighting quickly spilled across the border into Ukraine’s Sumy Region. Moscow officially described its objective as the creation of a buffer zone – meant to safeguard the resumption of peaceful civilian life in Russia’s neighboring Kursk Region.

Motivated by political considerations, the Ukrainian Army has been trying to cling to a narrow foothold just across the border, in the village of Tyotkino in Kursk Region. In fact, Kiev has deployed some of its most experienced and ideologically committed units to this stretch of the front. But rather than showcasing Ukrainian resolve, the situation in Tyotkino has underscored the growing imbalance in offensive capabilities between Ukrainian and Russian forces in 2025.RT

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© RT / Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru

From the Russian side, Tyotkino is essentially a logistical cul-de-sac. But for Ukraine, the village connects to a critical rear supply hub in Belopolye. Even so, Ukrainian efforts to expand their presence in the area have ended in near catastrophe. In mid-May, the commander of Ukraine’s 47th Brigade came close to staging a mutiny, accusing his superiors of issuing reckless orders that led to needless casualties.

Elsewhere along the Sumy front, Ukrainian forces – many of them retreating from Sumy and the surrounding areas – have taken heavy losses. This remains a strategically vital axis for Ukraine. The authorities have announced mandatory evacuations in another 11 settlements, bringing the total number of evacuated towns and villages in the region to 213.

Notably, this marks the first time Russian forces have entered Sumy Region since spring 2022.

As of now, Russian advances appear to be accelerating. The front line has moved to within roughly 20km of the city of Sumy itself.

Liman direction: Not a dead end
Liman (also known as Krasny Liman) is a strategic city in the Donetsk People’s Republic, with a pre-war population of around 20,000. Situated along the Kharkov-Donetsk railway, it serves as a key transportation hub in eastern Ukraine. After brief fighting, the city fell under Russian control in late May 2022 – but was later lost during Ukraine’s Kharkov offensive in October of the same year.

Today, Russian forces appear intent on retaking Liman by cutting off a single critical road that leads northwest toward Izium.RT

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© RT / Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru

The current offensive seems focused precisely on this objective. On May 15, Russian troops secured the village of Torskoye, followed by the capture of Redkodub May 29-30. Both settlements are considered vital defensive outposts for the Ukrainian Army along the route to Liman.

From the south, the Liman front is effectively sealed off by the Seversky Donets River. During the brutal fighting in 2022, neither side managed to establish a crossing. With the evolution of drone warfare, any river assault today would be even more difficult to carry out.

Russian forces are now within 10km of Liman and just 7km from the Izium road. The offensive is ongoing.

Konstantinovka direction: The site of the main offensive
As of early June, the stretch of the front from Dzerzhinsk (also known as Toretsk) to Mirnograd has become one of the most active battle zones. Russian forces have advanced up to 10km along a 30-kilometer-wide front, capturing 12 settlements and securing more than 15km of a key bypass highway linking Pokrovsk to Konstantinovka.RT

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© RT / Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru

These gains suggest that a southern encirclement of Konstantinovka – a city with a pre-war population of 67,000 – may now be underway. Simultaneously, fighting has intensified on the northern flank around Chasov Yar. The terrain in this area poses serious tactical challenges: Chasov Yar sits on elevated ground beyond the Seversky Donets–Donbass Canal, complicating efforts to establish supply lines or mount a full-scale offensive from that direction.

Notably, this sector – among the three fronts currently in focus – has received the least media attention. That may soon change. Given its strategic positioning, it could emerge as a central axis of Russia’s summer campaign.

In the past week, Russian forces dismantled a significant Ukrainian stronghold north of the village of Zarya. The terrain here is rugged and uneven, but if fully secured, it would open a path for Russian troops to push toward the southern outskirts of Konstantinovka.

Pokrovsk and Velikaya Novoselka directions: Approaching the borders of the DPR
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), a city of 65,000 before the war, has been under siege since autumn 2024. After Russia’s swift capture of nearby Novogrodovka and Selidovo, it initially appeared that Pokrovsk would fall just as quickly. But in a surprising pivot, Russian command redirected its main effort toward the Kurakhovo axis. Since the winter, Ukrainian forces have attempted to push Russian troops back from the city’s outskirts, but those efforts have largely failed to yield results.RT

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© RT / Sergey Poletaev based on data from Lostarmor.Ru

Further south, across the Volchya River, the offensives launched last year around Kurakhovo and Velikaya Novoselka are still ongoing. Russian troops have taken control of the town of Bogatyr and several surrounding settlements. The front line now lies just 3-15km from the Dnepropetrovsk regional border, depending on the sector.

An interesting development in this sector: Russia’s Central, Eastern, and Southern military groups are coordinating their offensive operations here – a rare show of multi-group integration.

On June 8, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that units from the 90th Tank Division, part of the Center Group of Forces, had reached the western boundary of the Donetsk People’s Republic and were advancing into neighboring Dnepropetrovsk Region.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/06/ukr ... s-the-war/

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Secret British plans to ‘defeat entire Russian Black Fleet’ revealed in leaks
Kit Klarenberg·June 11, 2025

Leaked files reviewed by The Grayzone expose the covert war waged by British intelligence against Russia in the Black Sea, outlining Ukrainian “honey trap” plots along with blueprints for blowing up the Kerch Bridge.

Sensitive documents reviewed by The Grayzone indicate that the United Kingdom is the central architect behind Ukrainian military operations targeting Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Among other explosive findings, the files reveal high-ranking British military and intelligence figures drew up detailed plans to “maximize attrition of [Moscow’s] Black Sea Fleet,” plotted to blow up the Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia with fertilizer bombs, and even devised blueprints for a series of submersibles which would allow Ukrainian divers to plant mines on Russian ships and infrastructure.

Further machinations include an explicit “honey trap” plan which called for establishing a brothel secretly run by British intelligence in Crimea. There, Russian-speaking female Ukrainian agents would ply “drunken sailors” from the Russian navy for information.

The schemes were assembled by Project Alchemy, a secret British military planning cell whose existence was first exposed by The Grayzone.

Alchemy’s intelligence-aligned director, Dominic Morris, once embedded with British special forces in Afghanistan while serving as a “political officer” for the UK embassy. The first of the relevant files was sent on April 14, 2022 — the same day Ukraine achieved its most spectacular naval success of the war when it sank Russia’s flagship in the region, the Moskva.

That feat was cheered by Western media, with the New York Times heralding the ship’s destruction as a “signal triumph – a display of Ukrainian skill and Russian ineptitude.” As the previously-unpublished files show, admirers of the operation also included Project Alchemy’s Dominic Morris, who saw an opportunity to “defeat the entire Russian Black Sea Fleet” and immediately began crafting plans to sink the rest of Moscow’s warships.

The destruction of the Moskva purportedly both surprised and panicked the Biden administration, as they apparently didn’t believe Ukraine possessed missiles capable of striking such a target and, according to one mainstream report, “hadn’t intended to enable the Ukrainians to attack such a potent symbol of Russian power.” But the attack apparently convinced the White House and Pentagon to double down on their military support for Kiev – and as the documents show, it had the same effect across the pond.

In response to an April 23, 2022 brief authored by a fellow cell member on the importance of Western powers supporting Ukrainian “land” operations, Morris declared “the sinking of Moskva” meant Kiev should focus predominantly on “maritime” operations instead. After complaining that “apart from a little bit of moving tanks and planes around a peaceful Europe,” NATO was “not doing any fighting,” Morris wrote that he saw a chance for the UK to eliminate every Russian vessel in the region without even going to war.

“You could defeat the entire Russian Black Sea Fleet” with “subthreshold options,” he wrote, referring to gray zone tactics which the British military has officially defined as “all activity up to, but not crossing, the legal definition of armed conflict.” Morris specifically proposed “commando raids” as “a fab subthreshold activity that will scare the shit out of” Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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The attack on the Moskva appeared to serve as a catalyst for Alchemy’s “Black Sea Operations,” which were already being assembled within a few hours of the news breaking. In a document dated the same day as the ship sank, Morris boasted that the “current situation in Ukraine gives the West an ideal opportunity to degrade Russian military capability by destroying as much Russian equipment as possible,” and went on to outline a series of multi-pronged and phased operations targeting Russia across the Black Sea. “Inflicting a high casualty rate must continue,” because “lots of dead soldiers returning to the mainland will have a big impact on public opinion” in Russia, Alchemy’s Morris declared.

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Project Alchemy also proposed a joint UK-Ukrainian intelligence operation in which “female agents” were surreptitiously inserted into Russian navy “admin posts.” In phase one of the operation, Morris proposed “setting up a bar and brothel” in Crimea to “gain intelligence from drunken sailors,” and serve as a “honey trap” for military and intelligence officers. “The agents must be Russian speakers and attractive, able to manipulate, playing to the weakness of the average Russian male,” he stressed.

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In the second phase, Morris proposed an “unconventional option” for blowing up Kerch Bridge, in which “a hijacked Russian flagged bulk carrier loaded with fertiliser rigged with explosives” would be parked under the Bridge and detonated. Morris “assessed this will be a significant kinetic event that will be able to blast four – six pillars on the bridge, rendering it unusable for a long period of time.” Given Kerch Bridge “was Putin’s crowning glory after taking Crimea,” he suggested its total destruction had the potential to foment a palace coup in the Kremlin.

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The Kerch Bridge’s collapse, and the infiltration of spies into Crimea, would lay foundations for the third phase: the “main offensive” of seizing the peninsula. Alchemy’s previously established “honey traps” could establish covert “safe houses and weapon stores” in advance of the mission, Morris suggested. Next, “a direct attack against Sevastopol using a tanker fully laden with fuel into Strilets Bay.” This would be “in essence a fire ship creating further panic” and “sending a strong signal to the Russian Navy [that] nowhere is safe in the region.”

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Finally, Morris advocated that Ukraine pursue a strategy of “containment” by seeking to “disrupt” and “capture/reflag the [Black Sea Fleet.]” The idea, the Alchemy chief explained, was “to target the Black Sea Fleet with the aim of destroying as many ships as possible,” as Moscow’s warships were “trapped with little places to hide” there. He urged the “use of civilian vessels retrofitted” with British-supplied weaponry, and proposed “ambushes using hijacked Russian ships to lure in a warship to be attacked by portable anti-ship missiles.”

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While no such operation ever materialized, Sevastopol has been a consistent target of Kiev’s drone and missile blitzes throughout the conflict. In fact, the “Black Sea Operations” memo identified the Nakhimov Naval Academy in the Crimean capital as an ideal target for such attacks. The institution has been repeatedly rocked by Ukrainian strikes during this period. An incendiary strike on Kerch Bridge did come to pass in October 2022 – and as The Grayzone revealed at the time, it was almost certainly the outcome of blueprints prepared by Project Alchemy.

In a secret memo one month later, Alchemy leader Dominic Morris stated approvingly that the “attack on Kerch” had “hurt” the Russians. Noting that a relatively high-ranking Russian politician was personally dispatched to oversee the Bridge’s reconstruction, Morris claimed this underlined the attack’s political significance to the Kremlin, and added: “It is not an easy repair, they need to replace road [sic] in each direction (ie the one that wasn’t hit) and bad weather is slowing them.”

On April 16, just two days after the Moskva went under, Alchemy’s plans had already morphed into a “CONOPS” – military jargon which the US Department of Defense defines as a “statement that clearly and concisely expresses what the joint force commander intends to accomplish and how it will be done using available resources.” The document, which is entitled “Building Ukraine [sic] Maritime Raiding Capability” and closely matches a secret British presentation previously exposed by The Grayzone, describes the Moskva’s sinking as “a significant blow to Russian naval capability” that left the rest of the Black Sea Fleet “vulnerable to missile attack.”

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According to Alchemy, the sinking of more ships would “force the Russian navy farther away from the Ukraine coast or into port, opening the potential for the Ukrainian Navy to launch littoral, inshore, coastal and riverine raiding operations.” The cell noted “the exploitable sea area” was “relatively small” – “just 160 nautical miles from Odessa to Sevastopol as an example,” which was “well within the range of small assault crafts.”

Ukrainian marines and naval forces were to be equipped and trained by the British to allow for “ambushing… Russian engineer and Spetsnaz reconnaissance teams” and “harassing Russian forces in hit and run operations from the waterways.” These teams would also be charged with “[taking] out coastal radar stations,” and thus “blinding Russian forces.” As these stations were “likely to be well defended,” such attacks would “have to be well planned and hit at lightning speed to ensure success and escape,” Alchemy wrote, insisting that “agent[s] already inserted into Crimea” from mainland Russia would “provide intelligence for the naval commandos.”

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The battle plans specifically called for Ukrainian commandos to “Hunt and destroy any Russian patrol craft operating in Dniprovska Gulf and conduct beach reconnaissance from Kilburn [sic] Spit to Yahorlyk Bay to identify good landing locations for a larger assault force for a future counter attack.”

The Kinburn spit, a narrow sandbar which comprises the far western end of the Crimean peninsula, has been a frequent target of Ukrainian raids since Russia’s seizure of the territory.

In the document, Alchemy suggested “specialist training for chosen men” who spoke Russian to carry out “covert undercover missions.” They would also receive training in the use of small arms, sabotage “to disrupt civil installations such as electrical substations, railways, cyber, hacking skills, locksmith training, advanced unarmed combat,” and how “to identify high ranking military officers for assignation while off duty in Crimea.”

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Ukraine trained in planting limpet mines
A leaked Project Alchemy proposal from September 2022 outlined an elaborate scheme based on input from three unnamed British companies to target Russia’s Black Sea Fleet while harbored in Sevastopol, strike “civilian vessels” used by Russia to move troops and equipment in the Dnipro River, and carry out night-time raids on “other maritime environment [sic] being used” by Russian forces. The planned military campaign was known as “The Tauris Project.”

The document noted that Russia’s Navy “need to refuel and reprovision in-between deployments,” and Sevastopol “is the primary port” for this purpose. According to Alchemy, Sevastopol was the one place Moscow’s Kilo Class submarines were “vulnerable to attack,” because in other areas the crafts were “able to operate with impunity as Ukraine does not possess the subsurface capability to counter the threat.”

In Sevastopol, however, the Black Sea Fleet could “easily be destroyed by combat swimmers delivered covertly” via crewed submersibles that allow divers to deploy underwater covertly, which are known in military parlance as Swimmer Delivery Vehicles (SDVs). As Alchemy explained, “Once the combat swimmers are in the port they can attach limpet mines to [Russian] ships and submarines before slipping silently back to Chornomorsk.”

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Alchemy and its unnamed confederates thus designed an SDV “specifically for operating in the coastal area of Ukraine,” with “a superior range to reach Sevastopol from Chornomorsk.” The file suggested these vehicles could also be deployed along riverbanks to “destroy shipping and hit targets out of range of conventional weapon systems” and “provide intelligence on enemy movements.” Dubbed the Tauris 1, it purportedly boasted “state of the art” technology, and was “capable of operating surfaced or submerged.”

The Tauris 1 would reportedly transport “one pilot and navigator plus four combat swimmers to remote locations on covert missions to include, surveillance, infiltration, mine clearance & mine laying,” with a system “designed to be fast when operating on the surface” – at up to 30 knots – and “ultra-quiet when submerged…with a very low radar signature when operating sub-surface at snorkeling depth.” Meanwhile, it could be parked on sea and riverbeds, or automatically surfaced via “a coded ping sequence.”

“We believe that the SDVs will give the Ukrainian Navy a huge advantage in disrupting, destroying key [Russian] assets and wider forces deployed in the south,” the document bragged. It foresaw 24 – 48 Ukrainian Marines and naval personnel being trained over “an eight-week course in a secret location in the UK,” overseen by a technical team and instructors comprising “former SDV pilots and navigators who served in the UK Special Forces community.” This would include “tactical training and limpet mine training.”

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Britain exploits Ukraine for Black Sea control
The document predicted it would take a year to construct the Tauris 1 SDVs, at an eye-popping price of £6 – 8 million per vehicle. While there is no evidence that Kiev took Alchemy and its partners up on the proposition, there have been numerous examples of kamikaze Ukrainian commando raids on Russian-held territory, often using jet skis. In addition to the Kinburn Spit, the Tendra Spit, which sits 20 kilometers to its south, has also been a repeat target.

A typically ill-fated raid which took place on February 28, 2024 saw five Ukrainian assault boats immediately come under intensive Russian fire as they approached the Tendra Spit, leaving dozens dead and just one watercraft able to escape the scene.

Even doggedly anti-Russian news outlets in Britain were forced to acknowledge the debacle, with The Telegraph lambasting the operation as a “failure” and noting that it was “not clear what the Ukrainian forces were attempting to achieve.” The suicidal raids have drawn comparisons to Kiev’s calamitous attempt to capture Krynky, which as The Grayzone revealed, was planned and directed by Project Alchemy.

Elsewhere, British-backed attacks on Russia’s forces in the Black Sea have been more successful. In March 2024, following a series of well-publicized sinkings of Russian warships, the UK’s then-Defence Minister Grant Shapps boasted that drones and missiles supplied by London had helped Kiev “lay waste to nearly 30 per cent” of the Russian Navy stationed there. On top of weaponry, it’s likely the Ukrainian strikes relied heavily on targeting intelligence provided by Britain’s RC-135 spy planes, which ramped up surveillance of Russia assets in Black Sea following the proxy war’s outbreak.

Today, London remains determined to neutralize Russia’s presence in the Black Sea. In January 2025, a defense contractor and British government-funded think tank known as the Council on Geostrategy floated the idea of deploying a British naval task force to the region, to “reshape” its “geopolitics.” The Ministry of Defence then invited “industry partners from NATO, Ukraine, and Five-Eyes countries” to submit designs and plans for “the development of a versatile, fast, and low-observable maritime system designed for operations in Ukraine and beyond.”

Before the month was over, a UK minister confirmed in parliament that in an attempt “to support Ukraine,” the Ministry of Defence had developed two “new uncrewed maritime [systems]” that were “undergoing final testing,” which it dubbed ‘Snapper’ and ‘Wasp.’ The uniquely British obsession with exploiting the proxy war to obliterate Russia’s Black Sea Fleet may seem peculiar, given its relative lack of impact on the battlefield.

However, the true motivation was clearly spelled out in a March 2022 Council on Geostrategy report, which declared that the hostilities in Ukraine meant London’s “stake in the Black Sea region has been elevated.” The paper detailed how control of the region was essential for Britain’s intended “tilt” to the Indo-Pacific, which was laid out in the official July 2021 “integrated review” of UK security and defense strategy. As the Council on Geostrategy explained, “any power controlling the Black Sea would be able to exert significant pressure on the key maritime communication lines from Europe to the Indo-Pacific.”

This February, a spate of explosions was reported on tankers in the Mediterranean which had recently stopped at Russian ports. Italian investigators suspect Kiev was responsible for carrying out at least one of these incidents using limpet mines — the same weapon they were trained to use by British intelligence.

Three years after the Moskva’s sinking, Russia still maintains several naval assets in the Black Sea. However, its fleet is unable to leave the confines of Moscow-controlled waters in the east. Just how much responsibility Britain bears for this feat remains unclear, but Project Alchemy’s files demonstrate a substantial role for the UK since the onset of the war.

https://thegrayzone.com/2025/06/11/uk-p ... ack-fleet/

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Prod the bear with a short stick… and then scream for help and jump into daddy’s lap!

Eduardo Vasco

June 16, 2025

Russia must not trust imperialism – not even a little bit – as Che Guevara already knew, Eduardo Vasco writes.

Well, Ukraine launched one of the most powerful attacks against Russia since 2022. On the first day of the month, five Russian military bases were hit by drones infiltrated into Russian territory and remotely operated. They allegedly disabled 40 fighter jets.

Simultaneously, explosions occurred on roads and bridges in Kursk and Bryansk, killing over 100 civilians. Russian authorities considered these terrorist actions and claim to have evidence that they were carried out under orders from Kyiv.

All of this happened on the eve of the second round of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian diplomatic and military officials in Istanbul. It was not exactly a signal from Zelensky that he is willing to move toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

It’s clear that the Ukrainians didn’t carry out these attacks without NATO’s complicity. As always, the Western warlords encouraged Kyiv, pushing it toward the abyss. Then their propagandists take advantage of the obvious Russian retaliation to demand that NATO’s imperialist forces plunge headfirst into a full-scale war against Moscow.

Such is the stance of a certain Brett Erickson, who congratulates the Ukrainians for the attacks on Russia but warns: “Russia will respond” – according to him, with cruel and disproportionate attacks against civilians, just like the evil Russians always do. Therefore, in his view, NATO countries should not act cowardly but rather more aggressively.

This Erickson calls for the theft of the $300 billion in Russian assets frozen in the West, but rants: the United States knows it can’t do that, because no one else would deposit their resources in the West, afraid that the imperialist pirates simply won’t give them back. He also calls for sanctions against countries that buy Russian gas and oil but is aware of the West’s impotence to confront China and India on that level.

Indeed, this impotence is expressed in Erickson’s own whining. The impotence extends even to the propagandists: symbolic words and actions are having no significant effect on Russia.

A clear hypocrisy is also evident in Erickson’s text. He writes about the Ukrainian attacks, but given his whining, it seems as if Russia carried them out, not Ukraine. NATO’s propagandists reveal themselves as childishly desperate, soiling themselves in fear of the Russian response, labeling it as “cruel” and cursing the West’s inaction. Calm down, poor Erickson.

At least this whining is genuine. It contradicts the initial (and probably forced) euphoria of Ukraine’s sponsors after the attacks and their propaganda that Kyiv was finally turning the tide.

Thus, right after Operation “Spider Web,” the BBC’s correspondent in Kyiv, Paul Adams, wrote: “the message Ukrainian delegates bring to Istanbul for another round of ceasefire talks with Kremlin representatives is: Ukraine is still in the fight.”

When Moscow retaliated later that same week, Adams was appalled by “Russia’s brutal response” – which left an insignificant number of civilian casualties compared to Ukraine’s terrorist attacks but, according to the Russians, hit several military targets.

Then came Zelensky’s whining: “Russia must be held accountable for this!”, taking the opportunity to beg NATO for help.

That Erickson, as impotent as all NATO propagandists, complains that the West won’t do anything to stop Russia’s retaliation. After all, nothing done so far has achieved anything.

“The West’s response to Russian atrocities is no longer constrained by morality or capability. It’s constrained by realism. The tools that remain are the ones we’re not actually prepared to use. The West can talk about resolve, but they govern by threshold. And Russia knows exactly where the threshold is,” laments poor Erickson.

Yes, reality is harsh, dear Erickson. The imperialist West is losing. Those few nations that got used to treating most of the world like garbage, to looting its wealth, to invading, to imposing or toppling dictators, to profiting from the hunger of millions, no longer hold the power they once did.

This was clearly demonstrated by the expulsion of American troops from Afghanistan by the bearded, ragged Taliban. It’s being demonstrated for over a year and a half in Gaza, where a starving people resists a genocide promoted by the United States and its military base called “Israel.” And it is proven, of course, by Russia’s reaction to NATO’s attempted encirclement and subsequent invasion via Ukraine.

However, anyone who thinks this decadent and decrepit Western empire is defeated is mistaken. Those who hold power don’t give it up unless forced. And to protect it, the most immoral and harmful means to humanity are used. That’s exactly what Erickson wants to be used: in this case, nuclear weapons. Luckily, imperialism is facing a nuclear power, which rightly developed this deterrent capability — otherwise, it would have been dominated long ago, and today the state of humanity would be very different.

The lesson from the whining of unqualified people like Erickson is that there must be no mercy when your enemy is this cowardly, immoral, and aggressive. Russia must not trust imperialism – not even a little bit – as Che Guevara already knew. Nor should Iran, nor any country in the world that seeks true independence from the dictatorial dominance of the old imperialist powers. It must be fought without mercy, without trust, and without concession. It’s a fight to the death — and only one side will survive.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... addys-lap/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Jun 17, 2025 11:50 am

Reproaches and threats

Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 17, 2025

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Yesterday, with a total of 6,060 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers handed over to Ukraine and 78 to Russia, the exchange process agreed upon during the second meeting between the delegations of the two warring countries in Istanbul concluded. This type of action, like the prisoner exchange, a process that continues and is expected to be completed this week, is buying the parties time, thereby simulating diplomatic activity and gradually postponing the moment when humanitarian issues have been exhausted and there is no choice but to begin addressing political issues. In Donald Trump's strategy of inducements and threats, both countries are threatened with sanctions if the US president finds them guilty of blocking negotiations or impeding peace, so prisoner exchanges are useful for both capitals.

However, the apparent ease—which is only possible if we ignore the delays and forget the precedents—with which Ukraine and Russia exchange prisoners of war, civilians trapped on the wrong side of the front, or corpses collected from the battlefield should not obscure the fact that no political progress toward peace or a ceasefire, even a temporary one, has been made for weeks. Each of the steps that caused false optimism among those who refuse to understand that the conflict between the two countries goes beyond the war stage has turned out to be nothing more than a mirage. The negotiations, which are likely to continue starting next week—as Vladimir Putin proposed in his conversation with Donald Trump, and Ukraine is likely to accept in order to continue negotiating small steps toward nowhere—have not changed the status quo , nor has direct contact reduced the rhetoric and tension between the two countries.

Taking advantage of the situation in the Middle East and in his usual attempt to present the situation in Ukraine as exactly the same as what is currently in the spotlight, Volodymyr Zelensky denounced on Sunday that Russia is planning to attack Ukrainian nuclear power plants, an accusation for which he provides no evidence and which should seem odd given the current situation. Considering that the main Israeli argument to justify the preemptive strike against Iran and launch a Western propaganda campaign with all the elements and falsehoods of the Iraq war has been the nuclear issue, Zelensky sought to ride that wave by reviving a rhetoric he has repeatedly clung to throughout the war.

As with Israel, which in reality seeks to perpetuate its status as the sole regional nuclear power and achieve regime change that would turn Iran into a puppet state of its US ally, the nuclear threat is simply an excuse the Western press is willing to accept. Not surprisingly, it is Israel, not Iran, that has proliferated, possesses nuclear weapons, and has not signed, for obvious reasons, the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

“Russia is planning new attacks against our energy sector, attacks that may be less visible to the world right now, as attention is focused on the situation in the Middle East. Our partners' intelligence services have relevant information. The Ukrainian Energy Minister has shared specific information about the Russian threat to Ukraine's nuclear infrastructure with the IAEA and Mr. Witkoff. The Ukrainian Defense Minister has shared information with his American counterpart,” Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday, although in more than three years of war, the most obvious attacks against a nuclear power plant, Energodar, have been Ukrainian.

With the exception of a drone crash into a Chernobyl rooftop, a case that was highly questionable although, of course, Russian culpability was assumed, the artillery and drones used were those used by Ukraine to attack Ukraine's only nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, which has been under Russian control since March 2022. At the time, the Russian approach to the infrastructure was reported live and with enormous alarm by the Western press, which even went so far as to report Russian bombings of nuclear facilities that turned out to be an adjacent administrative building that never jeopardized nuclear safety. In the three years since, Russia has attacked energy production infrastructure, especially since last August, when Zelensky's Russian adventure derailed negotiations for an infrastructure truce before they had even begun.

Moscow's troops have not attacked any of the Ukrainian nuclear power plants that Zelensky claims are now in danger. Of course, there is no hint in Zelensky's speech that he admits that if nuclear power plants are now on the table as potential targets of war—and neither the United States nor the European Union countries have condemned Israeli attacks on nuclear infrastructure (or any other)—it is precisely because of their Israeli ally, not because of Russian actions. With what legitimacy could Western countries denounce a Russian attack on one of Ukraine's nuclear power plants after describing the Israeli bombings as self-defense ? The question likely remains unanswered, and Zelensky's argument is, once again, simply a way to keep Ukraine in the global spotlight, a tactic he used, for example, during the height of the war of words between Trump and China, a moment that Ukraine used to claim Chinese involvement in the war that exists only in its imagination.

As if to top it all off, the Ukrainian president has added more accusations to his narrative, which in recent hours has reached a level of creativity it hasn't achieved in a long time. The Russians, Zelensky claimed yesterday, are offering to exchange Ukrainian children for their soldiers. "This is madness," the Ukrainian leader declared after inventing something that cannot be believed without some kind of evidence. In Istanbul, Ukraine handed Medinsky a list with 339 names of Ukrainian children that it accuses Russia of having "abducted," a number of minors Moscow claims to have evacuated from the front lines that bears little resemblance to the accusation of tens of thousands of children missing in Russia. Any accusation is valid against Moscow, which is why the press gave complete credibility to the Ukrainian allegations when they were put forward as an argument to accuse Russia of genocide, but now pays little attention to a list that doesn't even reach 500.

But the Ukrainian accusations are not limited to Russia, and the United States also receives criticism. Washington, Zelensky claims, has vetoed Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. The accusation is dubious considering that Ukraine has continued to attack refineries in Russia—it did so even during the energy truce—and the United States has not even criticized the most serious Ukrainian attack, that on strategic military bases, or the sabotage of railway infrastructure, which caused civilian casualties. The grievance expressed by Ukraine is an attempt to gain more attention and support from its allies, especially this week during the G7 meeting and coincidentally coinciding with the leak—possibly false, since the United States these days is only trying to achieve plausible deniability, to distance itself from Israeli actions that would be impossible without its connivance—that the White House has prohibited Israel from assassinating Ayatollah Khamenei. Although he has not yet resorted to prayers for Western intervention similar to what is currently taking place in the Middle East, with the United States and the United Kingdom shooting down Iranian missiles over Jordan, in his attempt to equate himself with Israel and use the current situation in the Middle East to draw more attention to Ukraine, Zelensky is trying to equate himself with Israel, both in terms of the enemy and in terms of his notably exaggerated threats and reproaches.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/17/reproches-y-amenazas/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
📍Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation as of 16 June 2025.

Units of the North group of forces advanced deep into the enemy's defences. They defeated concentrations of manpower and equipment of three mechanized, a Jaeger, two airborne assault brigades and two assault regiments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 230 servicemen, eight armoured combat vehicles, three cars and three field artillery guns. An electronic warfare station and two ammunition depots were destroyed.

Units of the West group of forces improved their tactical position. Formations of the mechanized and airborne assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated. The enemy lost up to 190 servicemen, a tank and 10 pickups. An ammunition depot was destroyed.

Units of the Southern group of forces took up more advantageous lines and positions. Defeated the manpower and equipment of four mechanized, motorized infantry, mountain assault and airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 175 servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, including an M113 armored personnel carrier made in the USA, four cars and an artillery piece. Three electronic warfare stations and an AN/MPQ-64 radar were destroyed

. Units of the Center group of forces improved their position along the forward edge. Defeated formations of five mechanized, two airborne assault brigades and an unmanned systems brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The enemy's losses amounted to 490 servicemen, four armored combat vehicles, including an M113 armored personnel carrier.

Units of the East group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses. Defeated the manpower and equipment of two mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 175 servicemen, an armored combat vehicle, 11 vehicles, three field artillery guns and two electronic warfare stations.

Units of the Dnipro group of forces defeated formations of the mechanized, mountain assault brigades, and three coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Up to 60 servicemen, six vehicles, two electronic warfare stations, an ammunition depot and a supply depot were destroyed.

Air defense systems shot down six US-made JDAM guided air bombs and 104 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed :

— 663 aircraft,
— 283 helicopters,
— 63,737 unmanned aerial vehicles,
— 611 anti-aircraft missile systems,
— 23,922 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
— 1,572 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles,
— 26,251 field artillery and mortar guns,
— 36,910 units of special military automotive equipment.

***

Colonelcassad
Following the talks with Kim Jong-un, Shoigu reported that the DPRK would send 1,000 sappers and 5,000 military builders to the Kursk region, who would help with demining and restoration of the southern regions of the region.

They also agreed to build memorials in Russia and the DPRK in memory of those killed in battles in the Kursk region.

***

The landing failed

This night, Ukrainian formations attempted to conduct a landing sortie in the area of ​​the Tendrovskaya Spit in a number of up to 8 boats. Their movement was recorded on the approach and a battle ensued.

As a result, the units in this area hit one of the boats with a Lancet, it sank. Also, fighters from the spit report that one was damaged by small arms. After that, the enemy units turned around and left.

There have been attempts to land in this direction before. And each time unsuccessfully. Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to take advantage of the waning activity and jump on the spit unexpectedly, but our servicemen responded quickly.

Nevertheless, this was only one of many attempts, and there will be others, since the Armed Forces of Ukraine have quite a large number of boats of various types. Preparations are in full swing, including near Ochakov, where the Special Operations Forces "Yug" and the TGr "Garuda" - a unit specially created for operations in the Black Sea - have settled in.

The video shows the defeat of a boat with the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Servicemen of the 80th Arctic Brigade sank a boat with personnel of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine using a loitering munition "Lancet".

This happened during the retreat of Ukrainian units after an unsuccessful landing attempt, one boat with a crew was completely destroyed and sank. The remaining vessels left in the direction of Odessa.

Archangel of Spetsnaz

***

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

We went to Kursk region
June 16, 18:59

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces department went to Kursk region.

Image

And this is another department, at the beginning of the war. A fashionable format for the Armed Forces of Ukraine these days.

P.S. Russia has completed the transfer of all frozen assets to Ukraine. Today, the last tranche of the agreed 6,000 was transferred. And even with interest - another 60 were added on top.
In total, 78 bodies of our fallen soldiers were taken from the enemy. The final figures for the exchange are 6,060 for 78.
The cocaine Fuhrer played the fool for a long time, but in the end, the dead had to be taken. According to Western media, the Russian Federation still has many such assets (up to 40,000). After the exchange, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that another 2,239 frozen assets could be transferred to Ukraine in the near future. Without conditions. Just take them.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9903124.html

Strikes on Kyiv. 06/17/2025
June 17, 11:41

Image

In the morning there were one of the most powerful strikes on Kiev since the beginning of the SVO.
A large number of "Geraniyas" arrived, after which "Kinzhals", "Iskanders" and cruise missiles followed.
They covered the positions of the "Patriot" air defense missile system in Zhulyany, various enterprises, warehouses, etc.

The following were hit:

Kiev Armored Plant,
482nd Design and Technology Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (military unit A-2070),
1899th Central Base for Repair and Storage of Communication Equipment (military unit A-0476),
195th Central Base of Railway Equipment (military unit T-0710),
Warehouses southeast of the Antonov plant - according to unofficial data, there could have been already assembled drones there, ready for use.
The territory of the Zhulyany airport, where, in all likelihood, at least three flights occurred.

As a result of the work of the "air defense titans", a number of residential high-rise buildings in Kiev were also traditionally hit.
The enemy's air defense was completely broken through as a result of this combined attack - the damage will be significant.

Image

Image

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(Many more images and videos at link.)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9903879.html

Google Translator

******

What Did Medinsky Mean To Convey By Comparing Ukraine To Karabakh?
Andrew Korybko
Jun 17, 2025

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He meant to inflict no harm to bilateral ties with Azerbaijan and only wanted to make the point that frozen conflicts, like what the West is trying to create in Ukraine by demanding a truce instead forcing Ukraine into peace, could easily re-erupt and risk spiraling out of control.

Russian presidential aide and head of the Istanbul delegation Vladimir Medinsky sparked Azerbaijan’s ire when he recently compared Ukraine to Karabakh in an interview with RT. The gist of his extended comments was that freezing the conflict with a truce as opposed to an actual peace treaty in which the disputed regions are recognized as Russian could lead to NATO pushing Ukraine to wage another war over them. His words deserve further elaboration given how many were confused by them.

For starters, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman reaffirmed that Russia has always recognized Karabakh as Azerbaijani so Medinsky’s comparison is imperfect since Russia recognizes the entirety of the disputed regions with Ukraine as Russian, not Ukrainian. Nevertheless, having clarified that, the second point is that Ukraine’s refusal to recognize the disputed regions as Russian could indeed lead to the Karabakh scenario of another war being fought over them, which Russia wants to avert.

It's here where the third point comes into play, namely the influence of foreign actors in the Second Karabakh War and another hypothetical conflict between Russia and Ukraine. NATO-member Turkiye played a key role in helping Azerbaijan, though some of the bloc’s European members and even the US to an extent politicized Azerbaijan’s victory to put more pressure on it. In the Ukrainian scenario, most of the bloc is expected to back Kiev to the hilt, which threatens a hot war with Russia by miscalculation.

The fourth point builds upon the preceding one and relates to Medinsky’s prediction that “After some time, Ukraine, together with NATO, with its allies, will join NATO, try to win it back, and that will be the end of the planet, that will be a nuclear war.” In other words, he takes for granted that a hypothetical Second Ukrainian Conflict would inevitably lead to a hot NATO-Russian war, with the innuendo being that NATO might initiate hostilities against Russia and thus force the latter to resort to nukes in self-defense.

And finally, the last point is that unresolved conflicts like Karabakh or what Ukraine could turn into in the truce scenario tend to fester and lead to more conflicts, ergo the need to sustainably resolve them. That said, in the second hypothetical case at least, some forces might want that to happen. Frozen conflicts cynically enable them to divide-and-rule the warring parties while also leaving open the possibility of placing maximum pressure on one of them in the future. Russia knows this and wants to avert it.

Reflecting on this insight, while it’s understandable that Azerbaijan would protest Medinsky’s description of Karabakh as a disputed region when Armenia itself didn’t officially lay claim to it, he meant to inflict no harm to bilateral ties and only sought to use that example to make the aforesaid points. Karabakh is fresh in many Western policymakers’ minds so he wanted to impress upon them that something similar, but on a much larger and more dangerous scale, could unfold if they don’t force Ukraine into peace.

Therein lies the crux of the problem: the West isn’t interested in coercing Ukraine into making more concessions to Russia and instead wants to freeze the conflict, which would allow Ukraine to rotate its troops, rearm, and eventually be in a comparatively better position to reinitiate hostilities. In that scenario, which Russia has warned about, NATO might get directly involved, perhaps first through so-called “non-combat deployments” to Ukraine, and then everything could spiral out of control after that.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/what-did ... -to-convey

*****

Slim pickin's...
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Jun 18, 2025 11:52 am

"Unconditional surrender"
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 18, 2025

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“While the world watches the escalation in the Middle East, Putin continues to bomb Ukraine. More than a dozen deaths in Kyiv alone prove that Russia uses diplomacy only as a facade. Putin is not seeking a solution, but capitulation. We will continue to increase the pressure,” the official German diplomatic account on social media condemned yesterday. Hours earlier, images captured had shown a Russian missile hit by Ukrainian air defenses and deflected off course. On impact, the missile partially demolished a residential building, causing a high number of casualties (14 people dead according to yesterday afternoon's count). The attack was described by Volodymyr Zelensky as one of the most brutal of the war against the capital. Although Israeli attacks in recent days have exceeded that figure, as, of course, do the precise daily bombings of Gaza, the Russian bombing has been described as deliberate, while Israeli attacks are permitted as a right to defend oneself . As was revealed throughout the day by the geolocation of the attacks, the Russian target was the Patriot air defense systems base.

The formulation of the German condemnation not only demonstrates the hypocrisy of the double standard with which Israel's war against Iran is being perceived in comparison to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but also aims to make it seem that only Moscow is preventing peace. Judging by the Western attitude, the Ukrainian long-range artillery bombardments targeting the outskirts of Donetsk, residential neighborhoods where there has been no military presence for years, must be much more constructive and pose no obstacle to achieving a ceasefire. Yesterday, Russian sources reported heavy artillery bombardment—Ukraine can no longer reach the city with cheap 155mm shells, and must therefore use more expensive ammunition, which has significantly reduced the danger to the civilian population—had destroyed several homes, killed five civilians, and wounded fourteen.

Determined to combine in his speech the triumphalism of a war he still insists he can win with the victimhood of presenting himself as the last frontier of civilization, single-handedly protecting all of Europe from the savage expansionist imperialism of Russian barbarism, Volodymyr Zelensky was preparing to use the image of a partially collapsed apartment building to, equate it with a similar image of Israel and ignoring the same ones in Tehran, take advantage of the situation in the Middle East to gain more support in an international situation that does not favor him.

“Bad news for Ukraine from the Middle East, with fewer Western weapons and more assets for Moscow,” headlined a concerned Cristian Segura in El País yesterday. The war—“preemptive,” like George W. Bush’s in 2003—that Israel is now waging is not like the one in Gaza, where it faced a militia, not an army, whose strongest weapon was the rockets its Iron Dome is capable of shooting down with relative ease. Iran is not a great military power, but rather a country that for decades has been one of the most sanctioned on the planet, which has weakened its economy and, in many ways, its military strength as well. Although necessity and the fact that it has been virtually surrounded for years by US allies and proxies has forced it to develop its own weapons, among which missiles are most prominent. As American journalist Mark Ames wrote earlier this week, “The first day was catastrophic for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Days 2 and 3 turned into a War of the Cities. It wasn't the kind of transformation the Israelis would have hoped for. The longer a War of the Cities drags on, the less spectacular the first day's operations seem.”

Israeli triumphalism, with the decapitation of the command staff of the army, intelligence, and the Revolutionary Guard in the early hours, has given way to demands for US participation in the war under the premise of a unique opportunity to end the "double jeopardy," which Israel falsely claims is existential. These are the nuclear program—which, despite propaganda, is civilian and not weapons-grade, and is not, as Tel Aviv has been claiming since 1992, on the verge of acquiring the bomb —and the missile program, which daily overwhelms Israeli defenses, causing damage that the Netanyahu government is trying to conceal. If the current war continues, Israel will require an enormous amount of offensive and defensive weapons, including air defense systems and ammunition, a resource that is scarce on the market and which Ukraine is seeking to corner. On June 11, Pete Hegseth confirmed what Ukraine had previously reported, that the United States had redirected what the Ukrainian president had described as "20,000 anti-Shahed missiles" to the North Africa-Middle East region. Despite the rise of the air war and the significant use of drones by both Russia and Ukraine, in his appearance before the Senate, Hegseth recalled that "the Middle East is and remains a very dynamic theater" in which the United States is preparing to "increase the supply of anti-drone systems to our troops and bases first," as "that has been and will continue to be the priority." Considering that less than two days after those words the Israeli attack began, of which Donald Trump has admitted to having knowledge, and that the first response was the launching of drones to saturate the defenses, it is not unreasonable to think that the Pentagon intends to use this material to defend its dozens of bases in countries in the Middle East as well as to supply its unsinkable aircraft carrier , Israel.

The competition from another high-intensity war is a cause for concern for kyiv. “Without US help, we will suffer more casualties,” Zelensky had lamented. Washington’s assistance is especially important in the case of air warfare. Unlike tanks, where Leopards outperform their American counterparts, or artillery, which can be acquired from countries like South Korea, air defense depends fundamentally on supplies, whether donated or sold, from the United States. Unfortunately for Zelensky, Israel’s war against Iran, two countries that do not share a border, is entirely airborne. The situation on the ground was also the reason why Zelensky was unable to replicate the scene at the Vatican on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada, where a meeting between the two presidents was witnessed. There, Zelensky, who relies heavily on his in-person communication skills, was supposed to present Donald Trump with a plan for a “defensive package,” that is, more weapons for the war. “We are not going to talk with America today about new assistance. In fact, one of the issues I will discuss with Donald Trump at the meeting is a defense package that Ukraine is willing to purchase,” he stated, without specifying with what funds. Ukraine does not ask for aid from the United States, but rather from the G7, from which it requests a contribution to the Ukrainian budget of $40 billion a year. Funding is the key to accessing the US market. “I cannot imagine, and I don't want to imagine, what it would be like to live and fight without the aid of the United States,” Zelensky declared. Such a moment is unlikely to occur, in part due to the US desire to increase its defense sales, but also due to Trump's frustration with Russia, which remains unwilling to accept the idea of ​​a ceasefire without any guarantee of a resolution to the war.

Achieving a ceasefire is the reason why Emmanuel Macron claimed yesterday that Donald Trump had left the G7 meeting before its conclusion, a comment that earned him a rebuke from the US president, who denied his intention to seek a truce but rather "something much bigger." Military movements and the interest of a significant portion of the Washington establishment in destroying the Islamic Republic of Iran could indicate Trump's intention to join the Israeli bombing campaign. The messages posted yesterday afternoon by Donald Trump on his personal social media platform left no room for doubt. The United States intends to either join the Israeli bombing campaign, possibly by supplying or using bombs capable of penetrating so deeply themselves in an attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, thus forcing Iran to surrender its sovereignty, or achieve this through threats. With the words Zelensky had hoped he would utter to Russia, “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” Donald Trump demanded yesterday, writing that “we know exactly where the so-called Supreme Leader is hiding , but he is safe there. We are not going to get him (kill him), at least not now.” And despite the fact that anyone with a cell phone and access to social media has been watching Israeli attacks on the civilian population of Gaza daily for almost 20 months, he added that “we do not want missiles fired at American civilians or soldiers.” Despite the fact that Iran was negotiating with the United States and even in the two previous Israeli attacks had responded with restraint, the fact that it decided to fight after being massively attacked by Israel is enough for the US president to threaten that “our patience is running out.” The use of the first person leaves little doubt about US approval and participation in the Israeli aggression against Iran.

The Trump administration has followed the path of George Bush and, with its allied media, once again raising the banner of weapons of mass destruction—which only Israel possesses in the Middle East—offers Iran two options: brute force or surrender. Either option seeks to subject Iran to the will of the United States and its regional proxy, Israel, just as the European Union continues to dream of subjecting Moscow to the diktat of its own, Ukraine, something for which they still need Washington's participation. However, the White House has already shown what its priorities are and what wars it is willing to continue as long as necessary .

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/18/rendi ... ndicional/

Google Translator

********

From Cassad's telegram account:

RQ-4D will now operate in the north

And again we draw attention to the fact that on the eve of the attempted landing at Tendrovskaya Spit, the NATO RQ-4D Phoenix drone was operating in the Black Sea a day before.

It patrolled along the southern part of the Black Sea all the way to Sochi and Abkhazia. The range of its onboard equipment allows it to safely conduct reconnaissance even from such a distance.

It is worth adding that when it was south of Crimea, it had problems with communication. It switched to an emergency code, which may be due to the impact of our electronic warfare systems on it.

After completing its patrol, the drone headed not to the island of Sicily, but north towards Finland. Having flown to the Tampere air base, it landed, where it is now.

This situation is a continuation of NATO's plans to deepen its presence in the Arctic region. RQ-4D has been moved there on a permanent basis to increase the Alliance's capabilities on Russia's northern borders.

Given that Great Britain and Ukraine are planning provocations, and that a large-scale attack on our aviation was recently carried out on the Kola Peninsula, the appearance of RQ-4D will not bring anything good for our troops in this area.

@rusich_army

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*******

Brief report from the front, June 17, 2025
Potential energy is being gathered for a kinetic strike. Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 17, 2025

Image
Zaporozhye to Donetsk Directions. From Orekhovo to Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk).

For the second day in a row, there have been no announcements about the liberation of settlements. Over the past few months, we've grown accustomed to our units advancing, freeing villages and towns - this is what activity on the front line has typically looked like.

However, deep and decisive breakthroughs are forged through unseen, methodical work. Tactical sectors see incremental gains: tightening control over key positions, suppressing enemy forces, regrouping, and distributing supplies. Potential energy gathers, and when conditions ripen, it erupts into kinetic action.

The attached map of the Zaporozhye and Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) directions highlights areas of RF activity and marks occupied Russian territory slated for liberation. Russian Forces operate along watershed lines, seizing commanding heights to observe, reconnoiter, and strike the enemy at operational depth - enabling assault groups to advance on the tactical level.

We've often noted the "swing" tactic: destabilizing enemy defenses through alternating blows along the front. But the full arc of the Special Military Operation reveals another dimension - not just horizontal swings, but vertical ones. Strikes plunge into the enemy's operational-strategic depths, hitting production, energy, and logistics nodes, while political blows target its leadership and allies. This struggle never ceases, only shifting in intensity and focus.

For the second week, the RF has struck economic and military targets across Ukraine's entire depth. Simultaneously, tactical units regroup for the next phase. Political pressure escalates in tandem: Ukraine's leadership and its allies suffer setbacks, and with the Iran-Israel conflict, they're now stretched to the limit.

Another observation: Armchair experts and hype-drunk bloggers rage, "Why aren't they destroying bridges and rail hubs?" But railway interdiction only matters in grand offensives like the Great Patriotic War. Today, a "major operation" means a reinforced company in motion. Everything is dispersed - the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provide for its maneuver on Ukroposhta trailers, individual cars, and railway platforms hooked on passenger trains. Blow a bridge, and they detour or ford a river. The payoff is fleeting.

So what's happening? Our pressure has forced the enemy to commit nearly all combat units to the front, clustering reserves in forward staging areas. Now, the RF strikes factories, power grids, and rear depots - the very infrastructure sustaining those troops. The enemy is pinned down, under fire, with no room to maneuver or resupply.

Meanwhile, political pressure is being exerted and only the most frostbitten political regimes remain on the side of Ukraine, which do not act in the interests of their peoples, but according to the doctrine of "we just want to shit on the Russians."

Given this, the current "lull" on the front will be short-lived, and soon, another verse of "Winged Swings" will be played.

They will fly in. Without fail.

*Winged Swings is a popular old song from the days of the USSR. Listen to it here. https://youtu.be/Jnl6Jf4yiu8?si=lE25U9vJhiptnT-8&t=97

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... t-june-07a

******

SITREP 6/16/25: Slowly Abandoned, Ukraine Gets Squeezed by Russian Pressure
Simplicius
Jun 16, 2025

The Wall Street Journal decided to publish a howler that rivals some of ISW’s best:

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https://www.wsj.com/world/where-russia- ... n-ad870176

Read the sub-heading: “Moscow’s offensive is designed to make leaders think [Russia is winning].”

It falls squarely in line with famous gems like this one:

Image

According to WSJ, capturing record amounts of territory is not actually winning, but merely the illusion of doing so. WSJ admits that in May, Russia took more territory than any month since 2022:

Russian forces ate into more Ukrainian territory in May than in almost any month since the end of 2022, as the Kremlin presses a summer offensive to create the impression in the West that victory is within its grasp.

You see, Russian gains are merely creating the impression that victory is coming, not the manifest reality of it.

Interestingly, the article quotes a Ukrainian soldier who states not only that Russians have a manpower advantage of 2:1 in Sumy, but that Russia holds the drone advantage there as well. You’ll recall in one of our last updates the specific quote that Russian drones were far overshadowing Ukrainian ones in Sumy, particularly—now we have confirmation.

“The pattern is familiar: The enemy wants to stretch our forces thin across a long front, drain our resources and wear us down,” he said, adding that so far, troop numbers meant that positions were still defensible. “They’re setting the stage,” he said of the Russians. “The pressure will only increase as the summer goes on.”

As to the above, Rezident_UA channel notes:

⚡️⚡️⚡️ #Insider

MI-6 passed on new intelligence to the Presidential Office that Russia is preparing a million-strong army for a new campaign in Ukraine, which could begin in the fall. New brigades have been created and staffed for these purposes, there will be no main attack on the front line, according to British intelligence, the Russian army will press on 4-7 sections of the front in order to stretch the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and collapse the entire line of defense.

rezident_ua


The article concludes:

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Other indicators began to surface which corroborate our recent reports of the potential thinness of Ukrainian lines:

"In the 3rd Army Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, one soldier holds a kilometer of the front" - Nazi leader Biletsky

▪️The commander of the 3rd Corps states that one brigade holds a 60 km front section, although the regulations stipulate a maximum of 15 km.

▪️At the same time, he believes that the existing forces are “sufficient to hold the front line.”

▪️He also notes that there is an ineffective distribution of people in the Ukrainian Armed Forces: people with education and experience end up in the “wrong places”, which is why “the infantry is getting worse”.


If that wasn’t enough, a Ukrainian battalion commander in the 72nd Brigade says that Russian forces outnumber his 10:1 on their section of front, which is one of the hottest, in the Pokrovsk direction:https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1 ... 97x156.png

In the Dnipropetrovsk region, there are 10 Russian fighters per 1 Ukrainian soldier — Ukrainian battalion commander

The battalion commander of the 72nd brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces complains about the lack of personnel.

"There are 10 Russians for every Ukrainian," he says.

According to him, despite the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian army is steadily advancing.

He also notes that Russian troops carry out rotations much more often than the Ukrainian Armed Forces.


Of course, he gives the rote response that Russians are being ground down—but then how is it possible they outnumber his men 10:1 when Ukraine provably started the war with far more men than Russia? Clearly, his men are being ground down even more.

Increasingly, all attention is being turned on Sumy where Ukrainian officials claim Russia is accumulating a larger and larger force.

Russia continues to build up its strike force near Sumy.

According to Petro Andryushchenko, former adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, at least ten new self-propelled guns, an air defense system, and more than forty trucks with personnel and ammunition were transferred through Mariupol over the weekend.

According to his assessment, this is the largest military movement during the entire conflict and unprecedented in intensity. The main flow is coming from Crimea and the Kherson region, and the direction is Sumy region, where active advancement of Russian troops has already been recorded, having come close to the regional center.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1 ... 97x156.png

The full interview with Andryushchenko with Ukrainian Trukha channel is below, with highlights afterwards:https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1 ... 97x156.png

"❗️❗️Massive transfer of Russian military equipment to Sumy region, threat to Dnipropetrovsk region and beyond. What should you know about the current situation on the front line? Let's take a look.

Petro Andriushchenko, former advisor to the mayor of Mariupol and head of the Centre for the Study of Occupation, has announced the largest transfer of Russian military forces in the last six months. He outlined the details exclusively for Trukha⚡️Ukraine:

▪️In recent days, the main direction of the transfer of Russian equipment from Mariupol has been to Sumy region via Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don;

▪️Several large convoys have been recorded: more than 10 new self-propelled guns, 40+ trucks with combat equipment and manpower, tractors, and an air defence system. They were sent to the Kursk region. In fact, they were sent to the Sumy region;

▪️This is the largest transfer in the last six months and the first of its kind since the war began.

▪️Regarding the new self-propelled artillery units, it seems that Russia sees some potential in the Sumy region or wants to increase pressure through it.

▪️Certain movements in the Zaporizhzhia region are being reinforced.

▪️Russia is trying to resume offensive operations in the Huliaipole area. But it is receiving heavy blows from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, causing it to lose reserves before they can be deployed in assault operations;

▪️Last week, active redeployment to the north of the Donetsk region was observed. Through Mariupol. This week, no such activity was recorded.

Dmytro Snegirev, a military analyst, spoke exclusively to Trukha⚡️Ukraine about the Russian Federation's tactical objectives and the situation in the various areas:

▪️The Russian Federation's strategic objective in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions is to gain access to the firing range of barrel rocket artillery.

▪️Sumy direction. The tactical goal of the Russian Federation is to occupy the settlements of Yunakivka and Khotyn. This will allow them to keep the residential areas of Sumy under the fire control of barrel artillery. This will create chaos and panic;

▪️Kharkiv direction. The Russian Federation's tactics are almost the same. The goal is to achieve fire damage with barrel artillery;

▪️The Russian Federation will not be able to take Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia. They do not have enough operational reserves there for such operations;

▪️Bakhmut direction. It will not be possible to take Chasiv Yar. This is evidenced by the fact that the FSB has been transferred there as a reserve. It is telling when they are used as assault troops;

▪️Zaporizhzhia direction. The distance is up to 40 km. But Russian FPV drones have already hit residential buildings twice. This is an alarming sign. Plus, there has been an intensification of hostilities and attempts to advance deeper into the region to a distance of fire damage above the regional centre;

▪️Kherson direction. A large-scale amphibious operation is impossible. The width of the Dnipro River is up to 1 km. The Russian Federation lacks watercraft and operational reserves, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have firepower superiority. There is no question of an assault on Kherson;

▪️Dnipropetrovsk direction. It is difficult there. But the Russian Federation has no access to administrative borders. This is a fake for pressure — to show the threat of scaling up combat operations at the expense of new regions. There is no operational encirclement.

The first video shows the advance of the Russians on the front line since the beginning of 2025."


It’s interesting he mentions that Russia has no chance to storm Kherson due to the width of the Dnieper. Here a new video from a Ukrainian man shows what the Kakhovka reservoir looks like now, two years after the dam was destroyed:https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1 ... 97x156.png

Lastly on the topic of Sumy, Ukrainska Pravda published a new, long and detailed piece on the Sumy direction and the troubles the AFU is facing. Given that it’s a Ukrainian source which pulls directly from frontline Ukrainian troops, it gives a rare glimpse into that critical front.

It begins by revealing there’s a kind of censorship going on in this direction, with Ukrainian journalists not allowed in the region, and military command no longer marking territory captured by Russia in the maps of their daily reports. This includes DeepState maps, the semi-official Ukrainian mapmaker tied to the Ukrainian MoD. This is essentially because DeepState sources their info directly from “official” MoD maps, and so when the Ukrainian MoD itself doesn’t update a direction, it reflects in DeepState’s reporting.

The Ukrainska Pravda article reveals the frustration of troops from the 425th Skala assault battalion deployed to Sumy:

First of all, because of the huge shortage of people in the reinforcement units, that is, those who had to stand on the defensive after the assaults of the 225th and 425th battalions.

One of our interlocutors replied to the clarifying question "Are you advancing on Tetkino?":

"We are advancing on the rake", meaning that we are going on the offensive again and again, not being able to hold the defense afterwards.


Another soldier states:

"The Russians have brought up elite paratroopers, and some of our units have refused to enter the positions to hold the flanks. And our battalion was wiped out during this month of assaults, so we are now more on the defensive," says UP one of the fighters who participated in the offensive in the direction of Tetkinoye.

Recall that Tetkino is where Ukraine claims to be having some “success” recently—apparently it’s coming at a major cost as the soldier admits his battalion was ‘wiped out’ there.

UP describes the two opposing views about the Sumy offensive:

Most of our interlocutors among the civilian residents of Sumy are of the same opinion: there is no big breakthrough of Russians in the Sumy region, and there is no heavy equipment in the captured villages that could reach Sumy, so do not exaggerate the risks. The city itself is not in any danger yet.

At the same time, almost all military personnel who hold the defense along the border and in the area of Yunakovka, as well as lead these units at the command level – paratroopers, border guards – are significantly less optimistic. They described the situation to us as "difficult", "critical", "chaos" and "super f* * k". They lack people, especially powerful FPV crews, fiber-optic drones, fortifications, prepared positions, early mining operations, and well-established interaction between units for effective defense.


UP answers how Russia managed to make such advances in Sumy; again Zelensky’s greedy overreach was responsible—he sent battalions to be ‘wiped out’ in more pointless assaults on Kursk region’s Tetkino, while Sumy got overran:https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1 ... 69x368.png

The next big revelation which flies in the face of a lot of Ukrainian propaganda was that Russian defenses in the region had greatly ‘surprised’ Ukrainians:

Ukraine did not use the time of the Kursk operation to strengthen its border in Sumy region.

"When we were sitting on the Russian positions, we were very surprised that they have trenches of 6-8 kilometers each, which stretch underground and all lead to the border, to the checkpoint. They have fortified their border very well. And now we are in Sumy region, and there is nothing here at all... you must hurry to do something for yourself. The other day, my guys were holding the defense in the dugouts, which they dug somewhere in 2014. It began to rain, and they were flooded up to their waists.

When there was Kursk, you could turn on your imagination and make an underground world in the Sumy region. But no one did anything. If we had stretched the nets over the roads earlier, the situation in the Kursk region could have developed differently, " the chief sergeant of one of the UAV units, who previously fought in the Kur region, and now operates in the Sumy region, is indignant in a conversation with the UP.

"There was definitely nothing concreted there. While it was possible to make full-length fortifications with equipment, no one did it, " confirms our interlocutor in the 17th brigade.


Interestingly, famous war correspondent Sladkov just visited precisely one of these underground ‘cities’ in the Sumy region. It belongs to the 83rd Air Assault paratrooper brigade fighting on the Yablonovka front, and it employs Vietcong-like ingenuity, trap doors and false tunnels:https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1 ... 69x368.png

<snip>

Last few items:

Russian aircraft shelters are reportedly finally being built all over, particularly in Khalino airfield in Kursk and several Crimean airfields:

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Satellite image of protective hangars for aircraft at the Saki airbase in Crimea, as well as 5 Orion UAVs , apparently used to counter Ukrainian UAVs in the Black Sea.

Recently, photos of these hangars appeared close up.

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Captured from the ground:

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Western officials are fear-mongering their citizens that if they don’t give up more of their tax dollars to the military industrial complex, they will soon have to learn to speak Russian:

🤡During a meeting of the Defence Committee in the British Parliament, the Chief of the Defence Staff of Great Britain, Admiral Tony Radakin, was asked whether NATO members would really have to learn Russian, as the new Secretary General of the alliance, Mark Rutte, had previously stated.

Recall that Rutte had stated that if NATO countries did not start spending at least 5% of their GDP on defence, they would have to learn Russian, hinting at the threat from Russia.


To this, Radakin responded with a smile in Russian: "I really want to say: “nyet", causing smiles from the participants of the meeting.
(Video at link.)

It follows in concert with a new propaganda drive in the British press:

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Several new exchanges of bodies took place, with the disparity getting mind-warpingly worse and worse for Ukraine:

06/16/25 Exchange of the Dead On June 16, another exchange of bodies of fallen servicemen took place in the SVO zone between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine received the bodies of 1,248 fallen servicemen, Russia - 51. Graph of the exchange of bodies of the deceased for the years 23-25.

Blue: Ukrainian bodies returned by Russia.
Red: Russian bodies returned by Ukraine.

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Russia now says it has thousands more clogging up the morgues it is seeking to return. (Video at link.)


Putin says unlike Russia and the US, Europe is defenseless against ballistic missiles, and European leaders should understand this: (Video at link.)



Russian UK ambassador Kelin states that Russia has the resources to continue the war for a very long time. Most interestingly, he says that the Ukraine conflict is not a ‘war’ and that if Russia chooses to do real war, it can cut off the entire Dnieper by destroying all the bridges: (Video at link.)



Russian negotiator and Putin aide Medinsky, on the other hand, says Russians demand harsher action from the government, including ‘Oreshniks on Kiev’: (Video at link.)



Putin announces the creation of a separate branch of unmanned systems for the Russian Armed Forces: (Video at link.)



Lindsey Graham unveils a sanctions bill that sounds suspiciously like a suicidal economic self-immolation:

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https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... ed-ukraine

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The Ukraine Crisis: The Secret Power Behind Zelensky – Who’s Really in Charge? | Lena Petrova Interviews Dr. Nicolai Petro
June 17, 2025



https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/06/the ... lai-petro/

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English Outsider - The 'West' Is A Farce
by English Outsider
lifted from a comment

There's nothing funny here, though it's true that the Western military and political establishments are now pure farce. Nothing funny because the farce has had lethal consequences. The unrestrained carnage in Gaza will be a reproach to the West for ever. As for Ukraine, "b" summed up, must be two years ago now, what we are putting our proxies in Ukraine through. A "crime", he stated. So it is. Has been since 2014. Worse now, after a million and more deaths and economic and societal ruin for Ukraine to match.

As for the military reality Putin, in the video embedded in the Simplicius article above, sums up the military reality that has been clear to us Europeans since February 2022. NATO, the US and all, is a paper tiger. Even with the substantial manpower of the original Ukrainian armed forces NATO has neither the troops nor the equipment for a ground war on Russia’s doorstep and never has had. All we do have is the nuclear threat and neither Biden, nor, now, Trump, will risk Chicago frying for Vilnius. Nor for Berlin. Nor for London. That accepted, the only puzzle lies in working out what the European politicians hope to gain from prolonging a war long since lost.

Seems a simple enough puzzle assuming, that is, that the European politicians are rational. The gamble they took in 2022 was a gamble on destroying Russia with sanctions. Their only way out of that failed gamble is to save face by taking us into the new Cold War. We must strain every nerve, they tell us, to face the Russian threat. Only keeping us in a state of permanent war hysteria will serve. Otherwise, should we recover from that hysteria, the danger is that we shall look about us and hold the politicians to account for the damage they have done and are still doing to our own economies and to our own societies.

The outcome of the war with Iran is still unknown. That of the war in Ukraine is set in stone and always has been. It remains only to attempt to guess how the Russians will accomplish their local objectives there.

Those local objectives are simple enough. To protect the inhabitants of the Donbas, an objective often forgotten or glossed over but the primary initial objective of the SMO. To prevent NATO's use of Ukraine, and now of whatever remnant Ukraine turns out to be, as a means of attacking Russia.

That means no more sabotage and assassination missions run out of Ukraine into Russia from the bases we set up in Ukraine for that purpose. No more "look no hands" missile and drone attacks from out of Ukraine. If we wish to continue with those various lines of attack we'll have to do so out of Europe, or from elsewhere along the Russian perimeter. Remnant Ukraine will no longer be at our disposal for those purposes.

The wider Russian aims, those set out in the 2021 draft treaties, it's less certain the Russians will achieve. They might get somewhere with the Americans. That depends on whether the Trump team, itself divided, can manage to negotiate the conflict between the "populists" and the Ancien Régime in the States. But whether or not they get anywhere with the Americans, the Russians must know they'll get nowhere with the Europeans as long as the European Ancien Régime remains in the saddle. In 2022 I was writing on English blogs that all the Russians want to do with Europe is to shut the door on us and make sure that door has locks. I doubt they’ll manage to do any better with us now, so the garden in the jungle will remain an impotent and embittered enclave in a world that has long since moved on.

No wonder Boris Johnson told us that what was at stake in Ukraine was nothing less than the hegemony of the West. So it was, and looking at what we've put our proxies through in Ukraine, and at what we're doing or have assisted in doing in Gaza, who can regret that lost hegemony?

…………………

As for the attempt to keep us in a state of “permanent war hysteria”, examples of that abound in Europe, to such an extent that it’s difficult to find any statements from any European politician, that don’t illustrate it. An example from the States is to be found somewhere in this video of a discussion between two of the best American analysts, Daniel Davis and Andrei Martyanov.

Huge Holes in the Iron Dome & More Netanyahu Lies (video)
Posted by b on June 17, 2025 at 14:55 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/06/e ... .html#more

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*****

Modern Slavery in Ukraine… and Antislavery Resistance
June 17, 2025

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By Dmitri Kovalevich – Jun 15, 2025

Dmitri Kovalevich reports on Ukraine’s descent into forced conscription, mass resistance, and economic collapse, framing it as a modern regime of slavery under NATO-backed war aims.

At the beginning of June, Kiev took measures to toughen its military conscription, despite the fact that deaths and injuries of Ukrainian soldiers and support personnel continue to increase as the US/NATO proxy war continues to grind on. The gaps along the front lines, which Ukraine is desperately struggling to hold, are increasingly being filled by unmotivated, conscripted soldiers, a growing number of whom have health problems restricting how long their rotation may last.

For the Ukrainian authorities, the dragooning of cannon fodder (military conscripts) into their increasingly stretched military front lines remains a matter for more Western funds and weapons from the West to help solve. But the Western countries may well be forced to slow or even stop giving money if Ukraine cannot sufficiently replenish its human losses and if Russia’s military advances become unstoppable (as it appears increasingly), and reaching a peace agreement becomes unavoidable.

Western media and politicians are well aware that conscription in Ukraine is accompanied by violence and mass roundups, but they choose to turn a blind eye to this. Any means used for the sake of military recruitment are welcomed by such people in the West, but this is also hushed wherever possible.

Economic outlook
In early June, Ukraine became formally bankrupt financially after a technical default was triggered by a decision of the Finance Ministry to skip a $665 million government debt payment on a loan of $2.6 billion in what are called ‘GDP warrants’. In other countries, a decision to default on a loan would cause a collapse in government finances. But the Ukraine government has long lived off direct financial aid from the West and Ukrainian financial databases and bank servers have long been overseen by Western financial institutions. Kiev has learned that default rules can be broken, entirely unlike other less-developed countries such as Nigeria or Cambodia.

Western capitalism has always been pragmatic, of course. The West has long been forgiving of Kiev’s debts and willing to inject billions more dollars (duly collected from Western taxpayers), even if it is known Kiev will never be able to pay them back. Such ‘investments’ amount to long-term investment in the dream of plundering Russian human and natural resources and subjugating all of the countries of the Global South. This was and remains the main goal of the West in its war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian political analyst Ruslan Bortnyk acknowledged in a published analysis at the end of May that the Russian economy is experiencing a period of recovery, despite all the Western sanctions against it dating back more than 10 years, and which have only deepened since 2022. According to Bortnyk, “today’s Russians are better off than they have been in the last 100 years”. Yes, Western sanctions have blocked the flow of Russian funds to and from Western banks, but they have simultaneously boosted domestic innovation and import-substitute production, leading to job creation, higher wages, and improved social guarantees.

Ukraine continues to linger as the poorest country in Europe. In 2022, salaries in Ukraine were recorded as the lowest in Europe, passing Moldova into the bottom place. At the same time, prices in June 2025 are equal to or higher than everywhere else on the European continent, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.

Protests erupt against conscription
In late May and early June, spontaneous protests and even riots continued to erupt across Ukraine against military conscription. As before, these were brutally suppressed by the authorities. Predictably, the Western media ignored any reporting of the protests. Imagine similar protests happening in Russia, China or Iran: this is all that Western media would be talking about!

On May 29, there was a large clash between military recruiters and local residents in the small city of Kamyanets-Podilskyi in western Ukraine. Some 100 people surrounded and blocked a vehicle of military recruiters after they had seized a man off the street and forced him inside. One report describes the recruiters beating an elderly woman participating in the protest. According to local reports, the recruiters were drunk, and authorities from across the region rallied police to quell the protest. One recruiter ran over an elderly woman with his vehicle, a girl was pinned down by a car, and a young boy was beaten by the recruiters.

Ukrainian Telegram channel Resident reported on June 4 about the clash. “Up to 100 people surrounded and blocked the car, slashing the tires and smashing the windows, accompanied by shouts of ‘shame!’. Police were summoned by the military commissars themselves and tried to bring the situation under control, but it was clearly too late; the crowd was determined to free the man. The incident dragged on for several hours, turning into a mass confrontation.”

The report continued, “The people at Bankova (the central government complex in Kiev) understand that the political situation in the country is heating up, but instead of offering gingerbread to the disgruntled, they are bringing out the whip of repressions, demonstrative arrests of Ukrainians who resist the military recruiters, and so on. Every day, it is becoming more obvious that although the authorities wish to keep Ukraine in fear, civilians throughout Ukraine are taking the path of active resistance to the military recruiters.”

The report continues, “A similar thing happened in [the cities of] Cherkassy and Kremenchug, where protests against ‘busification’ ended with the ‘people hunters’ being forced by popular resistance to flee. Traffic was busy at the time, but this didn’t stop local residents from joining in the protests.” (‘Busification’ is a new term that has entered the language of Ukraine. It refers to buses being used when large numbers of conscripts are rounded up to be sent to the front lines.)

Ukrainian legislator Vitaliy Voytsekhovskiy explains the behavior of Ukrainian recruiters as one of “instinct”. “This is an animal instinct,” he writes. “Ukrainian military recruiters take pleasure in harassing and beating people during conscription drives.”

The Marxist Platform of Ukraine (an illegal organization under Ukraine’s martial law) wrote a lengthy analysis on Telegram on June 1 explaining that conscription has become a tool of enrichment of the few and suppression of the many. “A slave may dream not of his freedom but of those he may be able to inflict a similar condition upon. People with such mentality are best suited for the role of the police, roaming in packs to capture Ukrainians, following orders from above. Zelensky and Yermak (the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine) are not interested in what human price will be paid or how far extreme conduct by their subordinates will go because, according to them, ‘all means are good in war’. Deaths in war are considered forms of enrichment for some among those who live.”

“Conscription has turned from a military tool into a political one. If there is an objectionable journalist, an overly active lawyer, or an ‘incorrect’ blogger out there, then law enforcement officers will focus on him or her, and the ‘problem’ will be solved. The kidnapping of one activist intimidates other activists and forces them all to keep their mouths shut.”

The Marxist Platform calls for “collective resistance” of Ukrainian citizens to the ‘guard dogs of the regime’, as military recruiters are called in Ukraine. (In a seemingly odd contradiction, the group declared opposition to Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine when it began in February 2022.)

On May 29, there was a clash between Roma people living in a camp in Veliky Berezny district of the Transcarpathia region (near the western border of Ukraine) and Ukrainian border guards and national police. According to preliminary reports, the clash occurred during an inspection by border guards, backed by the highly militarized National Police and National Guard of Ukraine. The police agencies say they suspected that Roma were ferrying people across the border or were themselves trying to flee Ukraine to escape the violence being directed against them by far-right vigilantes. Stones flew during the clash, damaging vehicles of the border guards. Then shooting started, with police using rubber bullets against the Roma. As a result, one woman and one child were wounded.

Western liberal media occasionally deplores the past, historic persecutions of Roma by Nazi Germany, but apparently it is blind when it comes to the treatment of Roma in modern Ukraine, including the numerous pogroms that have been waged by far-right, Ukrainian vigilantes (ultra-nationalists). The fact is that those who are waging attacks and pogroms against Roma in today’s Ukraine are the same people fighting against Russia. They are forgiven everything while the administration in Kiev enjoys a presumption of innocence in any involvement.

Imprisoned Ukrainian legislator Oleksandr Dubinskyy writes that military recruiters have become an untouchable elite in Ukraine, like the SS in Nazi Germany. “People want to join that service. That is where the richest and most successful look to serve. They already have money and now they have a bight life ahead, enjoying the power of lawlessness and beating and humiliating others. They can assert themselves at the expense of the weak and use this opportunity to earn money for their ‘work. In Hitler’s time, such people joined the SS. In Zelensky’s time, they flock to recruitment centers to join the national police. This is a new ‘elite’ of the Ukrainian nation”, Dubinsky writes sarcastically.

Earlier, in the city of Cherkassy in central Ukraine, a conflict broke out between recruiters and civilians, as reported on Telegram on May 26. A group of recruiters were beaten and forced to leave. The next day, the police demonstratively arrested the civilian participants in the conflict, threatening them with five years in prison. Three men and a woman face up to five years in prison. Prisoners in Ukraine are typically shipped off to the front lines to serve as cannon fodder.

On June 5, a clash between recruiters and forcibly recruited individuals took place in one of the conscription centers in the capital city Kiev. The riot was suppressed by special police forces and the National Guard. Artem Dmytruk, a former legislator from Zelensky’s party who has fled to London, wrote on Telegram on the same date that the resistance in Ukraine to conscription is gaining momentum.

“The opposition is getting stronger and is already manifesting itself in a variety of forms – from passive disobedience to open outbursts of civil anger. These processes can no longer be stopped or ignored. Only a civil uprising and the fall of the regime can become the real catharsis of this war,” Dmytruk writes.

The Ukrainian Telegram channel Legitimny (‘legitimate’) writes that protesters who clash with police over conscription are, to say the least, unlikely to become good soldiers. “All these men being bullied by recruiters are ending up in the army. Once there: 1. They don’t want to fight and will weaken the army from within; 2. The ones that will want to fight may survive and eventually travel back in time, so to speak, to find the original recruiters and ‘return the favor’ (take revenge) for the original conscription. 3. This is a signal that an army of deserters will grow faster than the Armed Forces of Ukraine itself. The strategy being chosen by Zelensky will destroy Ukraine from within.”



A modern-day regime of slavery?
In June, a Ukrainian court officially recognized the forced retention of men by military recruiters as a form of slavery. As reported by the online, daily news journal Strana on June 5, the case involved a local resident who was detained in the local military recruitment center for more than four days. The court ruling clearly described that the man was not arrested or detained by any formal process, and ruled that he was deprived of his freedom for four days and guarded by people with no authority to do so.

On the basis of this decision, the man demanded to be set free, but the judge replied he, the judge, had no authority to do so. Simply put, even if a court in Ukraine formally recognizes the fact of slavery, it chooses not to free the enslaved. Such are the realities of modern Ukraine, a country and governing regime admired by so many hypocritical liberals and ‘human rights activists’ in the West.

Ukrainians are joking online about this case, saying any crime is now possible in Ukraine. In theory at least, it is now possible to burn witches on bonfires, conduct mass poisonings of civilians using gas chambers, and practice forms of slavery or corporal punishment. The reasoning offered would be the cynical belief that ‘war sucks and that’s the way things are’ or irrational fears of Russia (stoked for decades by the Western powers). After all, were not the crimes of Nazi Germany overlooked until war with the West broke out? And during the 1930s, so long as crimes in Nazi Germany involved killing communists and socialists and preparing for war with the Soviet Union, the eyes and ears of Western governments and most Western media were closed off to all that was occurring.

Analytical Telegram journal Rubicon wrote in early June that the West’s support for Ukraine was initially aimed at maintaining, at all cost, the unipolar world order as led by the United States, including the appearance that this order is able to wield great power. Cheaper energy sources purchased from Russia, the stability of a significant part of German industry, and the standards of living of most European citizens have all been sacrificed in the pursuit of such goals. However, it has become obvious after more than three years of war with Russia that this goal was and remains unattainable.

Despite that, continues Rubicon, the leading countries of the European Union are persisting in trying to achieve these illusory goals, as though riding a dying horse but hoping it may nonetheless transport the rider to a bright globalist future. According to Rubicon, the policies of the leaders of the key countries of the European Union towards the changing realities of world politics are entirely bogged down by inertia, whose dictionary definition reads ‘a tendency to do nothing or to remain unchanged’,

An emerging ‘political party’ of conscription evaders
Strana reported in late May that Ukraine is witnessing the formation of a de facto “party of conscription evaders”. This “party” opposes the ultra-nationalist (far-right) parties promoting war, but is not formalized in any way. “The Ukrainian authorities admit that there are more and more clashes between recruiters and civilians taking place during attempts at forced military mobilization,”Strana wrote.

A Ukrainian sociologist explains to Strana that so long as the war continues, no political discussion of it is allowed. However, people’s disagreement with this course cannot be expressed in voting for alternative programs and parties, but only in fistfights and other clashes with military recruiters, or in desperate attempts to leave the country.

In this regard, representatives of the Ukrainian political elite are now expressing concern over the unwillingness of Ukrainian ‘slaves’ to die for interests of their elites’. The most resonant comment was made by Irina Goncharova, a member of the Kharkiv City Council from the European Solidarity Party (the party of former President Petro Poroshenko). She has called for exemplary shootings by firing squad of conscription evaders. There is an incredible irony when a deputy of a party called ‘European Solidarity’ calls for conscription evaders to be shot.

The views of Goncharova are echoed by Vasyl Khalamay, an officer of the AFU with the Nazi-era name of ‘Nachtigall’. The Ukrainian military likes to cosplay the German Third Reich in choosing names and emblems. Khalamay, too, calls for exemplary punishment of civilians for opposing recruiters. In a Tele-Marathon broadcast (this is the official, daily news broadcast that all Ukrainian television and radio channels are obliged to carry), he demanded that such civilians be “morally destroyed and physically punished”. There is another irony here in the fact that military recruiters already do this on a daily basis without needing or asking for official authorization.

Dmytro Korchynsky, founder of the ‘Brotherhood’ neo-Nazi party and who serves in the Presidential Office, said amid the recent clashes with recruiters that anyone who even looks askew at a military recruiter should go to jail for life.

Korchynsky also let slip the other day that Zelensky’s real goals are not at all peace talks with Russia, but lie instead in demands on the West for more weapons and new sanctions against Russia. He called any statements about peace merely ‘fashionable’. “In fact, we should realize that when Zelensky talks about peace, he is actually talking about weapons and sanctions,” Korchinsky said in a live broadcast on the NTA TV channel in Lviv.

In general, all the statements by representatives of Ukraine’s bloodthirsty elite reveal the fear of losing Western funding. Continuing that funding depends directly on the ability of their police and armed forces to drive ordinary citizens into the slaughter. For them, no new cannon fodder will mean no new money.

At the same time, the Ukrainian elite does realize that this cannot go on indefinitely, and so they are sending their children abroad; in advance, it would seem, of the Kiev administration’s inevitable demise. But the future standard of living of those children and their families now residing in Barcelona, London and New York depends directly on how many more Ukrainian tractor drivers, electricians and other citizens workers can be driven into war and used as battering rams against the reinforced, concrete walls of the Russian military and against its well-trained, armed and supplied troop emplacements, all highly motivated to protect the Russian homeland from NATO aggression.

(Al Mayadeen – English)

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Jun 19, 2025 11:41 am

Disappointment in Canada
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 19, 2025

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Confident in his physical presence as a guarantee of achieving his goals and accustomed to the attention he has garnered at every international forum over the past three and a half years, Volodymyr Zelensky had pinned his hopes on the G7, which is being held this week in a friendly country, Canada, and which includes Kyiv's main allies. Of all the international forums, the G7 is the one that has most clearly aligned itself with Ukrainian interests over the past three years. Unlike NATO, the second summit Ukraine has clearly marked on its calendar, not a single country in the group of seven has deviated from the norm. This was the case at least until the arrival of Donald Trump, whose rhetoric of peace through strength , with his aspirations, arguably unsuccessful, of bringing about a swift end to the war in Ukraine. The most dangerous thing for kyiv is not, as often presented in the media, that its supposedly pro-Russian or pro-Vladimir Putin stance will force Ukraine into an unfavorable agreement, but that its lack of interest in a war in which it has already reaped the economic benefits it could have obtained will condemn the country to fight without explicit US support and supplies. Resolving this issue was Volodymyr Zelensky's mission, who, with the positive experience of the brief but fruitful Vatican meeting, had raised expectations to a level that could only cause disappointment.

“G7 leaders expressed their support for President Trump’s efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. They recognized that Ukraine has committed to an unconditional ceasefire and agreed that Russia must do the same. G7 leaders are determined to explore all options to maximize pressure on Russia, including financial sanctions. The G7 met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to discuss their support for a strong and sovereign Ukraine, including defense budget support and recovery and reconstruction,” Volodymyr Zelensky’s team wrote in a summary of their participation. No one would have guessed from that summary that, as AFP stated yesterday , “the United States blocked a ‘tough’ G7 statement on Ukraine that would have condemned Russia, arguing that it wanted to preserve its ability to negotiate.” The Ukrainian statement is an optimistic take on Zelensky's visit to Canada, where he received explicit support from his closest partners, the EU member states, and the United Kingdom—a reaffirmation that brings nothing new and was not necessary. "It was great catching up, Volodymyr Zelensky," wrote Sir Keir Starmer, for example, who insisted that "the UK is increasing the pressure on Russia: there should be nowhere to hide for those financing Putin's war machine. We stand with Ukraine, always."

To these messages, which today mean nothing to Ukraine, which considers the long-term support of European countries guaranteed, committed to continuing to sustain the Ukrainian state and who will continue to invest in its security by supporting the Ukrainian army as long as it is useful in its political, economic, and geopolitical struggle against Russia, we must add that of Friedrich Merz. In his first appearance at a G7 summit, the new German chancellor made no secret of his position. "Israel is doing our dirty work," he stated without blushing, making it clear that the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is not only a proxy war. In his summary of the summit, Merz agreed with Zelensky in expressing a positive outlook. "I am returning to Germany with cautious optimism that the United States will decide to impose more sanctions against Russia. We must do everything possible to end the war against Ukraine as soon as possible. The ball is in Moscow's court," he wrote on social media. European countries have not lost hope that the imposition of further sanctions by the United States, the country with the least ability to sanction trade with Russia, will turn the tide of the war and force Russia to negotiate under the conditions of the "final ultimatum" that Donald Trump confirmed yesterday he had given Iran, the war that prevented Zelensky from achieving the sole objective of his visit to the G7: meeting with the President of the United States.

“Will I attack Iran? Maybe, maybe not,” he told the press, without clarifying whether he himself knows what his decision will be, and presenting the possibility of starting a new war against a country of 90 million people as practically a game. “Nobody knows what I'm going to do,” he continued. Iran, the US president claimed, has proposed a meeting. “We may meet,” he insisted in the same appearance in which he claimed to have told “Netanyahu to continue” bombing Iran. After 19 months of massacre in Gaza, attacks on Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and now an open air war against Iran precisely to prevent the possibility of a nuclear deal, Trump insisted that the Israeli prime minister is “a good man” who “is being very mistreated in this country.” Iran, whose government has insisted there will be no meetings with the United States while Israeli bombing continues but has sent a government plane to Oman, where the negotiations were taking place, responded yesterday to the US president by denying that it had requested a meeting with Trump and insisting that "we will not grovel at the gates of the White House."

Donald Trump's peculiar handling of reality, who doesn't seem bothered by the total destruction of Gaza but sees Ukrainian cities destroyed all over the country and who accuses Zelensky of playing with World War III but sees no danger in attacks on the Russian nuclear triad, makes it difficult to understand his perspective on the two conflicts currently shaping international relations. Donald Trump's departure before the end of the G7 summit, a forum glamorous enough for the US president to want to remain the focus of attention of everyone present, indicates his current priorities.

Despite European countries' rapid alignment with US hawks, who portray the attacked country as the aggressor and demand that Iran return to the negotiating table blown up by Israeli bombing, Trump has not reciprocated the gesture by denying Zelensky and his European allies a victory. “Ukrainian diplomats have been left frustrated – and in some cases bitter – by Donald Trump’s refusal to make Ukraine a priority after Volodymyr Zelensky flew 8,000 kilometres to the G7 conference in Canada only for the US president to fly home the night before the two leaders were due to meet. Trump said he needed to focus on the Israel-Iran conflict,” wrote The Guardian yesterday, in a clearly disappointed tone, recalling that “Zelensky had announced that the G7 summit was one of two golden opportunities to exert collective Western pressure on Trump, and to discuss Ukraine’s plans to buy $30-$50 billion worth of air defence systems and weapons from the United States as a security guarantee.”

“There is a constant danger that Ukraine will fall victim to events and Trump's short attention span. Vladimir Putin knows this, which may be the reason why such a large-scale attack took place in Ukraine last night. There had been all sorts of promises for this summit—including new US arms deliveries being offered,” the British outlet adds, quoting a member of the Ukrainian delegation, who still cannot explain how the Middle East has once again overshadowed the war in Ukraine and who refuses to see that the attention kyiv garnered in 2022 could not last forever.

Zelensky's hopes are now pinned on The Hague. The NATO summit will be held there next week, where Zelensky will once again try to secure a face-to- face meeting with Donald Trump. However, the meeting does not look as promising as in previous years. As Marta Havryshko noted, "Ukraine will not be mentioned in the final declaration of the NATO summit in The Hague. And, of course, it will not be invited to join NATO." "I am sure Zelensky will pass this off as another 'tactical victory' to please his fan club: those who still fantasize about saving NATO and manage to justify hundreds of thousands of dead and maimed Ukrainian soldiers as the noble price of joining the 'civilized world' that is supposedly just around the corner," the historian added.

Like the current G7 summit, the annual meeting of NATO countries will be marked by the international situation, where Ukraine no longer dominates, but rather the real threat of massive US bombing against the only Middle Eastern country where it has no military presence and has not bombed in the last decade. There, Zelensky will try to achieve, with the help of his European allies, what he failed to achieve in Canada: presenting Ukraine's cause to Donald Trump as a conflict essential to European survival and demanding the same old demands: weapons for war and sanctions to force Russia to accept the language of the ultimatum.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/19/decepcion-en-canada/


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Russo-Ukrainian War: The Flaming Olive Branch
Russo-Ukrainian War: Summer 2025
Big Serge
Jun 17, 2025

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“It is impossible to hold an olive branch in one hand and fire a pistol with the other.”

So quipped Wilhelm Solf, a diplomat with the Imperial German Foreign Ministry. As Europe groped its way through the mass casualties and civilizational exhaustion of the First World War, Solf was one of the few key personnel in the German government to advocate for a negotiated peace in early 1917, as the war crossed its halfway mark. Of course, we know that World War One did not end in 1917 - attempts to negotiate a settlement collapsed almost instantly, with the allies rejecting German proposals outright. Strangely, one of the main points of discontent did not even relate to war aims or the particular terms of peace, but rather to the issue of blame. Both the Central Powers and the Allied Entente were adamant that the other side ought to formally accept the blame for the war, and talks never really progressed farther than that.

The abortive peace process was further muddled by the intervention of US President Woodrow Wilson. Riding the confidence won by his victory in the 1916 election, Wilson felt that he had political freedom of action to intervene more actively in Europe, and the United States - perhaps alone among all the powers of the world - seemed to have levers of influence over both parties in the conflict. Wilson’s agenda, as such, was to negotiate a “peace without victory”, with neither side annihilating the other, in the spirit of comity and mutual respect. A harsh victory’s peace, according to Wilson, would be felt as a humiliation by the defeated party, and breed the conditions for future war by seeding intractable resentment and revanchism.

Knowing what we know about the Treaty of Versailles, which was just this sort of deeply resented punitive peace, Wilson’s comments seem prescient. Unfortunately, the idealistic (some would say naïve) American President had failed to read the room. His Peace Without Victory speech was well received by the domestic American audience, but rejected as anathema by virtually everyone else, including not only the Germans but also the Anglo-French Entente.

Wilson, aloof across the ocean, failed to understand two very important things. First, that Europe’s blood was up after years of carnage. This was particularly the case after Germany’s botched attempt to extend peace feelers to the allies; the Entente was outraged at what they saw as insulting German terms, while the Germans in turn were in a defiant mood after the Entente’s abrupt rejection of those same terms. Secondly, Wilson failed to grasp that he was not viewed as an impartial mediator, particularly by the Germans. While he may have viewed himself as a statesman with a gifted touch, uniquely positioned to halt the bloodshed, Berlin fundamentally did not trust him or the allies, and preferred instead to ruthlessly exploit all its kinetic powers. Peace Without Victory may sound charitable and cozy, but victory was much more appealing. After millions of casualties, all parties preferred to go for the win rather than limping away with a draw.

At the risk of forcing the analogy too bluntly, we find ourselves with a very similar situation in Ukraine. President Trump, like Wilson, came off the high of his election victory fully determined to insinuate himself into the war as a peacemaker. His commitment to ending the war, like Wilson’s speech of January 22, 1917, played very well with his domestic audience, but resonated little across the Atlantic. Like the Germans a century ago, Russia does not see the American President as an honest broker, and he has discovered that his leverage is not so great as he thought. More importantly, it is as true now as it was in 1917 that it is damnably difficult to convince warring states to stand down when their blood is up, and to walk away from the sunk cost of so much bloodshed. The motif of blame has even made its return, with many European parties writing off the idea of concessions to Russia simply on the basis that Moscow is the guilty party in this war.

We have a First World War problem, and it will resolve itself with a First World War solution, when one warring party succeeds in exhausting and breaking the other. As Ukrainian and Russian negotiating teams met in Istanbul for their brief token negotiations, which were predictably non-productive, the two parties continued to exchange strikes in the usual ratios, and the Russian Army ground forward along the line of contact. Wilhelm Solf’s olive branch was never seriously in play, but the pistol remains operational. Blood is up in Ukraine, and it will continue to soak the ground.

The Collapse of Diplomacy (Again)
The recent Istanbul “peace talks” between Ukraine and Russia began and ended in the blink of an eye, making it obvious (as if it were not already) that nothing productive could come from the discussion. The second round of talks, which took place on June 2nd, lasted for about an hour, which is scarcely enough time for diplomatic niceties. Predictably, nothing was agreed upon except for a tentative deal to exchange POWs and a KIA remains swap, which has already begun to come off the rails.

The problem with diplomacy right now is that there is little appetite to actually negotiate a deal, but all three major parties (Ukraine, Russia, and the United States) are willing to engage in performative diplomacy with objectives that are orthogonal to each other. It is unlikely that any of the negotiating teams actually arrived in Istanbul with an expectation or intention of ending the war, but they did have genuine objectives that they were trying to achieve. The issue is further obfuscated by the ancillary issue of the mineral rights deal between Ukraine and the United States, which is not directly related to the prospects for a negotiated peace, but is nonetheless an aspect of President Trump’s performative negotiating.

For Russia, the purpose of performative diplomacy is to publicly reiterate its war aims and assert confidence in its battlefield dominance. It is critical to remember that at every stage of this war, when given the opportunity, Moscow has restated the same fundamental terms, which constitute the Russian “bottom line”: these include the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the four annexed oblasts, recognition of Russian annexations, limits on the size and armaments of the Ukrainian armed forces, a ban on Ukrainian membership in military alliances, including NATO, Russian protection as an official language of Ukraine, and the lifting of international sanctions on Russia.

This amounts, in concrete terms, to Ukrainian surrender. Moscow has been hesitant to use language like this, and has certainly avoided bombastic World War style language like “unconditional surrender”, nevertheless this is what these terms represent. This is particularly the case when it comes to those cities in the annexed oblasts that are still under Ukrainian control - Kherson, Zaporizhia, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk. Ukrainian possession of these cities remains the most important card in Kiev’s hand, and indeed the only real leverage that they have vis a vis Russia is their ability (for the time being) to force the Russian Army to sustain additional casualties to take these cities. Once Russia has those cities, Ukraine has nothing to offer in negotiations. Russian reiteration of these war aims, then, amounts to a demand that Ukraine hand over its most important negotiating assets, which is equivalent to surrender.

We should therefore understand Russia’s actions in Istanbul as an ostentatious display of force, making a thinly veiled demand for Ukrainian surrender in an act of performative diplomacy. This performance is directed squarely at Kiev and Washington.

Ukraine, however, is engaged in its own form of performative diplomacy, but the Russians are not Kiev’s intended audience. Rather, Ukraine “negotiates” as a form of signaling towards Washington (and to a lesser extent Europe). This is seen in the fact that, while Russia is demanding de facto Ukrainian surrender, Kiev is asking for stopgap measures like limited ceasefires. The goal, for Ukraine, is not to end the war, but to paint the Russians as the intransigent party, unwilling to even agree on a temporary ceasefire. As the Ukrainians see it, this creates a win-win scenario: if Russia does agree to a ceasefire, this blunts Russian momentum on the battlefield and provides an opportunity for the AFU to recalibrate; if Russia does not agree, this can be presented to the west as proof of Russian bloodthirstiness.

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Performative Diplomacy in Istanbul

The result, then is, that Moscow and Kiev are approaching the question of negotiations with incompatible paradigms. Kiev, ideally, would like a ceasefire without any negotiated obligations; Moscow wants negotiations without a ceasefire. Russia has demonstrated that it is perfectly comfortable negotiating while military operations are ongoing. If the discussion collapses, it can always be resumed later, and in any case the Russian Army can continue advancing. This flexibility comes from Russian confidence that it will achieve the same strategic objectives in either case. For Ukraine, on the other hand, negotiating against a backdrop of ongoing combat is bad math, because it is the AFU that is steadily being rolled back and seeing its strategic position weaken.

Taking this to its paradigmatic conclusion, Russia and Ukraine have fundamentally different views of the relationship between military operations and negotiation. Ukraine seeks to negotiate to improve its military position: using performative diplomacy to leverage additional support from its western backers, and seeking a ceasefire to reconstitute its forces. Russia, on the other hand, uses military operations to improve its position in negotiations. The particular war aims and demands of the two parties are almost inconsequential, as the two sides do not even agree on what negotiations are for.

Meanwhile, the United States is engaged in its own equally performative form of diplomacy, which is aimed at giving Trump strategic flexibility in Ukraine. By arranging negotiations between Russia and Ukraine (and delivering Moscow his own labyrinthian peace plan), Trump can argue that he made a good faith effort to end the conflict. If it works, and a negotiated peace can be reached, he will be hailed as a great peacemaker. If it does not work, he is well positioned to wash his hands of Ukraine by passing Kiev off to the Europeans. We already see the signs of this, with Washington threatening to walk away from the peace process, preparing to wind down military assistance to Kiev, and Trump adopting increasingly apathetic language towards Ukraine.

Trump is no doubt eager to avoid turning Ukraine into his own Afghanistan, and he has the benefit of a junior partner (Europe) which is perfectly willing, if not fully able, to hold the bag for him. All in all, Trump has managed Ukraine fairly well, if one understands that his chief objective has been to gain political flexibility, rather than ending the war at all costs or achieving some sort of Ukrainian victory. Simply by getting Ukrainian and Russian negotiators into the same room (no matter how performative the proceedings), he’s gained the leeway to tell the American public that he gave it his best shot; when the negotiations collapse, he can begin washing his hands of Ukraine and hand the flaming bag to the Europeans.

With the rapid and predictably unfruitful talks in Istanbul now over, it looks like we are finally ready to move past the charade - particularly given the latest news that the US is cancelling unrelated bilateral discussions with Moscow. The thing that stands out the most from all of this, of course, is that virtually nothing has changed in the relative negotiatory stances. Notwithstanding Vice President Vance’s assertion that Russia is “asking too much”, Moscow is making exactly the same demands that it has been making for years, and it is running into the same brick wall.

Neither Trump’s election, nor the failure of Ukraine’s offensives on the Zaporizhian steppe and Kursk, nor the ongoing Russian progress clearing the Donbas has had any material effect on the negotiating calculus. These things all mattered in their own right, but curiously none of them have moved the needle on diplomatic prospects in Ukraine. The negotiations are a strangely static, sterile, performative enterprise, serving mainly as forums to allow Ukraine and Russia to publicly reiterate their aims and complaints. In that respect, they are mostly harmless. Meanwhile, the war will be fought to its conclusion.

Ukraine’s Blockbuster: The Strike War in Context
By far the biggest headliner moment of the year, at least in western media, was Ukraine’s unexpected attack on Russian strategic aviation assets at dispersed airbases deep within Russia itself. The attack, codenamed Operation Spider’s Web, was certainly notable for three distinct reasons. First, it degraded Russia’s strategic aviation (strategic bombers and Airborne Early Warning and Control), which are assets that had been essentially unscathed to this point. Secondly, the strike affected Russian bases as far afield as the Russian Far East, which damages the sense of Russian geographic standoff and the inviolability of the country’s vast dimensions. Third and finally, the platform for the attack was highly novel, with the Ukrainians launching small drones from truck-carried launchers which were assembled within Russia itself, at a covert Ukrainian base in Chelyabinsk.

One item which is interesting to note off the top is that, although the use of such a truck-mounted launching system is new, the idea itself is not, and in fact originated with the Russians themselves. More than a decade ago, Russia began playing with a system, affectionately dubbed “Club K”, which purported to fire cruise missiles from a launch platform which appeared in all respects to be an innocuous shipping container. Originally marketed as an anti-ship weapon, Club K drew scathing reviews as an exercise in perfidy, and China’s ongoing work on the theme has received similar criticism.

This, of course, makes it rather funny that Ukraine has received such widespread acclaim and unqualified praise for Operation Spider’s Web. The complaints levied against Russian and Chinese experiments with Club K type systems are essentially that it is unlawful to disguise strike systems as innocuous civilian cargo. Clearly, the Ukrainian strike is not particularly different, and merely swaps a shipborne cargo container for a truck. Now, those who have been reading my work for some time know that I am not the type to wring my hands about “international law”, which I view as an essentially nonsensical concept. International Law is not really law, but only an institutionalized mechanism for the strong to constrain the weak. Nor, for that matter, does hypocrisy really matter. What matters, and particularly in war time, is not what a state is “allowed” to do by international law, but what it is able to do, and what sort of risk appetite it has. In the case of Club K and the Spider’s Web, we see that their perfidy is our audacious covert operation. The hypocrisy does not really matter, but it is at least a little funny.

So, on to the damage from Spider’s Web itself. Initially, much of the Ukrainian infosphere was bandying numbers that were patently absurd, claiming that something like 70% of Russia’s strategic bombing fleet had been destroyed. The official claim from the Ukrainian government was that 40 bombers and early warning aircraft had been badly damaged or destroyed, which would amount to perhaps a third of the Russian inventory. A review of the video published by Ukraine, as well as satellite imagery, confirms around a dozen total losses, and western defense officials have landed on the number 20, including six destroyed TU-95s and four TU-22s.

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Destroyed TU-95s at Olenya Airbase

Putting this in context, it means that Russia lost approximately 12% of its TU-95 fleet and 7% of its TU-22s, with the inventory of TU-160’s escaping unscathed. All told, that is approximately 8.5% of Russia’s strategic bombers. The issue, which constantly emerges on the Ukrainian side, are absurdly high expectations and a gross misunderstanding of what “success” means. In any realistic paradigm, destroying nearly 10% of Russian strategic bombing assets with relatively cheap drones would be viewed as a considerable success, but the ongoing expectation that Russian capabilities can simply be wiped out prevents such a realistic assessment.

We should acknowledge that the upsides here for Ukraine, lest we fall into the trap of “coping.” It’s manifestly obvious that Spider’s Web was both a schematically ingenious and technically innovative operation on the part of Ukraine. Striking at five widely separated Russian airbases with assets staged deep in the Russian heartland, Spider’s Web was both bold and ambitious, and it did not require risking particularly valuable Ukrainian assets. From a risk-reward calculation, this was clearly a success for Ukraine.

Furthermore, it must be plainly admitted that the destroyed Russian aircraft are, in fact, mostly irreplaceable. The TU-95 has been out of production for years, and the extant fleet was expected to serve a workhorse role for the foreseeable future. Russia has some production of the TU-160, with perhaps four aircraft scheduled for delivery in the near term, but this will obviously not fully replace the recent losses. Still, things could have been much worse. Losses were minimized by the total failure of strikes on two of the five target airfields. At Dyagilevo airfield near Ryazan, Russian air defenses were effective and no aircraft were hit; meanwhile, the attack on Ukrainka airfield in Amur Oblast failed when the launch container blew up. It also appears that the strike on Ivanovo Severny hit a pair of A-50 (AEWAC) aircraft but did destroy them.

We’re left with something of a mixed bag. Ukraine demonstrated a novel and ambitious ability to strike Russian assets and did destroy several irreplaceable aircraft, but the results were certainly far short of what Kiev was hoping for. The Russians have good reason to feel that they escaped the worst of it. Certainly, this will be an inducement to accelerate the construction of hardened aircraft shelters, which has been underway at a plodding pace, though obviously not at all airfields, since 2023. Thus far, the Russians have mainly prioritized hardening airfields in range of conventional Ukrainian strike systems (in places like Kursk and Crimea). Spider’s Web will likely prompt similar hardening at far flung airfields that were once thought to be relatively safe.

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Newly built shelters at Khalino Airfield in Kursk Oblast

Add it all up, and the ledger on Spider’s Web is fairly straightforward: it was a significant success for Ukraine, in that it destroyed a good number of valuable Russian assets while risking very little. However, multiple Russian airfields escaped without losing aircraft, thanks to a mix of successful Russian air defense and Ukrainian malfunction. The Ukrainians are left with a success, but one that was much smaller than they might have hoped for.

More significantly, however, Spider’s Web degrades Russian capabilities in a way that is very unlikely to make a material impact for Ukraine itself. Losing strategic bombers, especially models that are out of production, puts more stress on the remaining airframes and pinches capacity, but these losses are highly unlikely to make anything except the most marginal reductions in Russian strikes against Ukraine.

The first and most basic reason for this, of course, is that the air-launched missiles of the strategic bombing fleet form a relatively small fraction of the munitions that Russia fires into Ukraine. The vast majority have been, and continue to be, drones (like the venerable Geran) and the ground launched Iskander. Gerans, in particular, form the most numerous munition now in use, with hundreds launched per day amid rapidly increasing production. TU-95 participation in airstrikes is a relatively scarce occasion, and no matter how loud and cinematic the Big Bears may be, they are not remotely the primary launch platform in this war.

In fact, Spider’s Web provides an opportunity to pontificate on an ancillary point of considerable importance. Russia’s use of air launched cruise missiles has slackened significantly in 2025, as they stockpile missiles not only for use in Ukraine but also for other contingencies. In fact, mere days before Spider’s Web struck at the strategic bombing force, Ukrainian media was wondering aloud about the relatively scarce Russian use of these systems, noting that air launches by strategic bombers had occurred only a handful of times this year. At the moment, the key factor constraining Russian cruise missile strikes on Ukraine is neither a shortage of missiles nor a lack of airframes, but strategic decisions to stockpile assets.

In the grand scheme of things, the loss of irreplaceable bombers does compress top-line Russian capabilities, but not in a way that changes the calculus for Ukraine right now. Destroying a grouping of TU-95s on the ground is a success for Ukraine, particularly given the cheap assets that they expended for the task, but it does not address the problem, which is that Russia has established the ability to sustainably bombard Ukraine, particularly with Iskanders and Gerans, all while stockpiling strike assets. It is possible that, in the wake of Spider’s Web, Russia is compelled to make more frequent use of the TU-160 (which has been used extremely sparingly to this point), but it is clear that Russia has many strike options and its capabilities vis a vis Ukraine remain more than adequate. This is a war of industrial attrition, and Ukraine’s covert operations are not a substitute for the capacity to wage a persistent air campaign.

Ultimately, this brings us to the broader point. Spider’s Web was an innovative example of an asymmetric operation, but this merely speaks to the presence of a broader asymmetry in this war, as such. Russia is the far richer and more powerful fighter in this conflict, which paradoxically means that it has more assets both to use and to lose. Ukraine managed to destroy nearly a dozen Russian strategic bombers, but Ukraine has no strategic bombers at all. Russia will always be vulnerable to asymmetric losses of this sort, because it possesses assets that Ukraine does not. Losing strategic bombers is not good, but it’s better than not having them at all. In this conflict, there’s still only one party that has a vast and diverse arsenal of indigenously produced strike systems, and one party that has to resort to (admittedly very clever) truck launched drone attacks due to the exhaustion of its conventional strike capabilities.

Hitting the Seam: Donbas Front Update
On the ground, the primary axis of effort for the Russian Army continues to be the central Donbas front, around the cities of Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. This is particularly the case now that the two axes in South Donetsk and Kursk have been largely scratched off. A brief look at the situation map reveals a swelling Russian offensive in this critical central sector. The past few years ought to have given us a good sense of caution about using words like “breakthrough” and “collapse”, so I will instead simply argue that the Ukrainian Army is in serious trouble in this sector.

The reasons are fairly straightforward, and lie not only in the escalating manpower shortages facing Ukrainian formations, but also in a triple vulnerability that exists in this particular sector of front. In short, the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka axis suffers from what we will call a “triple seam” which makes it operationally very vulnerable, and the current Russian offensive is aimed directly at this seam, or operational joint. Let’s elaborate.

The first seam, or vulnerability, is geographic and thus by far the easiest to understand. The basic issue is that the urban belt in western Donetsk (running from Kostyantynivka up to Slovyansk) lies on the floor of a valley. In the Kostyantynivka sector in particular, there are local high points around Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Ocheretyne, all of which are now firmly in Russian hands and form the bases of support for advances towards Kostyantynivka. To the west of Kostyantynivka, there is a wedge-shaped plateau which separates the city from Pokrovsk, and it is into this elevated wedge that the Russians are now advancing.

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Elevation Map: Central Donbas

The operational problem for Ukraine, however, goes much farther than the elevation map. In fact, the elevation issue dovetails with structural problems with Ukraine’s prepared defenses. To understand this, we must first remember the state of the front in 2023. Two summers ago, the main axis of Russian effort was through Bakhmut - that is, an advance due west across central Donetsk. At that point, the southeastern axis of the front (Avdiivka, Krasnogorivka, Ugledar) was holding steady for the AFU. Facing the prospect of a Russian advance directly from the east, the Ukrainians built up defenses around Kostyantynivka which face eastward, towards Bakhmut.

The collapse of the southern front creates a pivot in the Ukrainian defenses, so that the axis of the Russian advance is now from the southwest of Kostyantynivka, rather than from the east. Although the Ukrainians began building new defenses (oriented towards the south) after the collapse of the southern front, there remains a significant gap west of Kostyantynivka. Furthermore, the “joint” where Ukraine’s defenses intersect is essentially at the southwestern limit of Kostyantynivka itself.

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Ukrainian Defensive Belts (Military Summary)

Recent Russian advances have now put them behind the Ukrainian positions guarding the southwestern approach to Kostyantynivka. When the Russians reached Yablunivka (approximately June 4), they were firmly in the rear of the defensive belt southwest of Kostyantynivka, opening up the Ukrainian line here for entry into the city’s western flank and link up with the advance out of Toretsk.

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Approximate Situation around Kostyantynivka
Given Ukraine’s lack of manpower, these trench systems threaten to become highways for Russian forces, as we saw along the Ocheretyne axis in 2024. Once Russian forces break into these belts, they are able to roll along the length of the belts deep into Ukrainian space.

In short, a variety of structural weaknesses are all dovetailing in the same sector of front. The Russians are advancing from advantageous high ground into structural seams in the Ukrainian defenses, precisely into the area of front that wedges Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka apart from each other. The result is an emerging double envelopment, with the Russians plowing through the middle towards the rear areas behind these cities. The terrain and the orientation of the Ukrainian lines have accommodated an enormous Russian splitting wedge which will sever the lines of communication to both cities. This would be a major problem under ideal circumstances, but given Ukraine’s inability to properly man its positions, it has become a crisis.

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In the coming weeks, Russian forces will continue their expansion into the interstitial space between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, probing their way into Ukraine’s operational liver. When they reach the space just to the southwest of Druzhivka, they will be positioned to cut the lines of communication into both cities. Simultaneously, they will continue the rollup of the defenses on Kostyantynivka’s southwestern flank. With Russian forces penetrating into the city’s southwestern flank, the city is already in an untenable position,

Of the two cities, Kostyantynivka is likely to fall first, with the Russians beginning to assault the city proper at some point in July. In what I would characterize simply as a command decision, the Russians have been patient about pushing Myrnograd and crumpling the shoulder of the Pokrovsk position. At this point, they seem unlikely to do so until the advance into the seam has compromised the lines of supply from the rear.

At the risk of being somewhat hyperbolic, this remains the only sector worth watching closely. Russian forces are exerting relatively minimal efforts on other axes of the front. There is incremental progress, pregnant with opportunity, around Lyman, and Kupyansk, and the expansion of the Russian “buffer zone” in Sumy oblast bears watching. It seems extremely unlikely, however, that Russia has intentions in the near term of pushing the front towards the city of Sumy itself; rather, the buffer zone is aimed at seizing a forward defensive line along the high ground on Ukraine’s side of the border, keeping an advantageous front open to dissipate Ukraine resources. The center of gravity in this war remains the central Donbas, and the key operational fact, as such, has been the pivot in the Russian strategic axis. After advancing westward through Bakhmut in 2023, they broke open the south in 2024 and are now advancing orthogonally into the Ukrainian defense between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, in the penultimate act of the Donbas campaign before they reach the prize in Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

Conclusion: Strategic Clarity
I have written frequently about the critical importance of a “theory of victory” when waging a war. This refers, in the simplest sense, to the need for a state to have an overarching concept for leveraging power into its war aims. This is the strategic ligament which connects military operations and diplomacy to the state’s wartime objectives.

As the war moves on into its fourth year, Ukraine and her western backers have cycled through several different theories of victory which were quietly discarded after coming apart at the seams. In the first year of the war, the theory of Ukrainian victory centered on created an unacceptable cost-benefit calculus for Russia. If Ukraine and the west showed unexpected resolve, keeping the AFU fighting fiercely in the field, it was hoped that Russia would back down from fighting a long war, particularly as sanctions gnawed away at the Russian economy. Instead, Russia began mobilizing for a longer fight, and the Russian economy has thus far weathered the sanctions intact.

This theory of victory was then replaced with a model predicated purely on military operations, which supposed that a decisive victory could be won in the south by knifing through Russian defenses in the land bridge. This theory came apart in a much more visible fashion, with western armor burning on the steppe after a botched attempt to breach the Surovikin line. A second attempt to restart decisive operations met a similar end in Kursk.

In the last year or so, the theory of Ukrainian victory pivoted once again, particularly under the auspices of the new Trump administration, in favor of words like “attrition” and “stalemate” as a mechanism to gain a negotiated settlement. If the front in Ukraine can be locked into something approximating a stalemate - that is, if the cost of further advances can be made prohibitively high for Russia - the conditions will be set for a negotiated peace.

In contrast, Russia has had an essentially consistent theory of victory since late 2022, when it began mobilization. That theory is very simple: by establishing a basis for sustainable military operations against Ukraine, consistent pressure and ground advances can be maintained until either Ukrainian resistance collapses or Russia controls the Donbas. To this point, Ukraine has not demonstrated capabilities - either to go on the offensive or to halt the Russian advance in the Donbas - that change this basic calculus.

Commentators in the west rarely try to view the conflict from Russia’s perspective, but if they could they would quickly see why Russian confidence remains high. As Russia sees it, they have absorbed and defeated Ukraine’s two best punches on the ground (the 2023 counteroffensive and the Kursk operation), and they have weathered a long and steady infusion of western combat power without the trajectory of either the ground campaign or the strike war fundamentally shifting. Meanwhile, Russia has essentially scratched off the entire southern Donbas, pushing the front across the border into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and they are poised to wrap up the central sector of front as the advance around Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka blooms.

We’re left, then, with a jarring disconnect. On the one hand, the Trump Administration approached Ukraine as if their election fundamentally changed everything and instantly raised the probability of a negotiated peace. Russia, however, rather rightly feels that nothing has changed at all. They have absorbed everything the west has thrown into the conflict, and they continue to both advance on the ground and relentlessly strike Ukraine on a material basis that they clearly view as sustainable, without unduly burdening civilian life in Russia.

If anyone was surprised, then, that Russia came to Istanbul only to reiterate the same terms they’ve been presenting from the beginning, they were clearly not paying attention. Russia has no inducement to soften its stance so long as it feels that the battlefield calculus is unchanged, and nothing that the west (or Ukraine) has done since 2022 has given Moscow a valid reason to revise its views. Russia’s baseline demands ought to be well understood by now, as is Russian willingness to achieve those aims kinetically. If Ukraine will not give up the Donbas at the table in Istanbul, it can be taken by the Russian Army. In the end, there’s very little difference.

We are left with Woodrow Wilson’s formulation. Not, of course, his high minded “peace without victory”, which is a nonstarter today just as it was in 1917. Rather, we’re left with the hardened and embittered Wilson of 1918. With the United States now an active belligerent in the conflict, Wilson’s outlook had darkened immensely, and he now categorically opposed negotiating with an undefeated Germany at all. He had concluded instead that “If Germany was beaten, she would accept any terms. If she was not beaten, he [Wilson] did not wish to make terms with her.”

If the olive branch has wilted, the pistol will do.

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-u ... ming-olive

******

Torture, fortifications, mobilized priests

June war update. Sumy and Dnepropetrovsk. DJ technocrat
Events in Ukraine
Jun 18, 2025

Today we’ll be taking a look at the latest events on the frontlines. But first, a glimpse at the human material the war consumes. In some of these mobilization stories, the reader will be able to understand why nationalist thought-leaders constantly worry that anti-nationalist political sentiment is likely to explode if wartime censorship is ever lifted.

This video was published on June 18, showing mobilization officers (TSK) dragging an unconscious man into one of their infamous minibuses in the Kyivan suburb of Brovary: (Video at link.)

On June 16, a mother in the Lutsk region posted the following to facebook:

Max is in critical condition!
He needs help

Many of you know my son, Max Muzycka, as a military volunteer, athlete, and a good person

From his wife’s words:

On June 10, in Lutsk, he was detained by representatives of TSK [mobilization authorities - EIU] right on the street. Without the police or checking his documents. They sprayed gas in his eyes and took him to the regional TSK centre in Lutsk.

A day later, without a medical examination, he was transported to a training ground in the Lviv region.

On June 12, he stopped responding to messages.
Thanks to geolocation, I saw that he was being taken to St. Panteleimon Hospital in Lviv.

When I arrived, I found out that he was already on the operating table in critical condition.

Diagnoses: open traumatic brain injury, subdural and epidural hematomas, multiple hemorrhages.
Two surgeries have already been performed.
A criminal investigation has been opened.
His condition is very serious.


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Naturally, the TSK denies any responsibility, and implied that he was beaten at the military base, and not during his mobilization.

Beatings are endemic in the army, whether it’s during the mobilization process or at the front. On June 13, the western-funded publication suspilne reported on yet another military torture-extortion scheme. The victim, Ruslan, had been sent to the 57th brigade in May 2024, and suffered from abuse from that point onwards:

I was mobilized. Isigned a contract with the 57th Brigade. Our assignment was the Kharkiv region, Vovchansk. When we first arrived, the command seemed normal. Then they started denying medical treatment. I didn’t receive the contract signing bonus—no one in our brigade got a single penny beyond the regular salary. The guys are waiting for combat missions, but the command took a different approach—they started using physical violence: beating soldiers, locking them in car trunks. The commanders have certain servicemen whom they ask to carry out the beatings.

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A photo Ruslan provided of another abused soldier in the 57th

(Videos at link.)

He was able to escape by deserting in January, where he was able to get the medical treatment his unit had denied him. He then returned, but only spent a day there:

"I saw how they kept beating the guys — they were bruised, and there are video recordings. We had a case where someone set fire to a military police officer’s car because he constantly beat the guys. So the next day, as soon as it got dark, I turned around and left. I started receiving threats because I had deserted. They decided to teach me a lesson — one of them came up and said: 'I’ll slit your throat.' Many of the guys said that the political officer was sending people after me to punish me for deserting

Meanwhile, even priests are being mobilized, as this June 18 video from the Chervonohrad region shows.

Or rather, especially priests. Churchmen from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate), the main church in the country until Poroshenko created a rival nationalist church in 2016 - the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. Their priests, in contrast, can be seen blessing the troops at nationalist marches.

On June 14, videos of another mobilized priest in Odessa appeared. The Odessa Eparchy wrote the following:

Despite his age and poor health, as well as the canonical prohibition against bearing arms and the legal impossibility of being mobilized, the clergyman has been and continues to be pressured to sign a military service contract — with threats and psychological pressure applied, as he is transported between various branches of the Territorial Recruitment Centers and military units in Odesa region and across Ukraine, (Video at link.)

The following day, Odessa’s mobilization authorities confirmed that a priest by the name of Aleksandr Moskovchuk had been mobilized. They claimed it had been his own choice to join the army.

Meanwhile, in the capital, presidential advisor and prominent player in Russiagate Serhiy Leshchenko, aka ‘DJ Technocrat’, played a new club set.

(Videos at link.)

And on the Warsaw front, nationalist rockstar Svyatoslav Vakarchuk played a concert.

Image

Unlike the likes of Ruslan from the 57th, the fact that Vakarchuk officially holds the status of Captain in the Armed Forces of Ukraine doesn’t prevent him from leaving the country. Frontline journalist Volodymyr Boiko covered this important military event on June 10:

Under the heading “Our Service Is Both Dangerous and Difficult.”

Captain of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sviatoslav Vakarchuk is conducting a training session with subordinate personnel at a training ground in Poland.

It is said that, in order to ensure Captain Vakarchuk would return after his overseas deployment, the commander of the military unit confiscated his combatant ID and salary card as collateral.
(Video at link.)

I would also add that Vakarchuk, who was once named by Francis Fukuyama as the ideal president for Ukraine, also has a brother who works in the mobilization authorities (TSK, or Territorial Recruitment Centres). This was uncovered after an incident when Vakarchuk’s fans were violently mobilized at one of his concerts in mobilized.

Despite all this, the TSK just can’t seem to supply enough men to keep up with losses. On June 16, parliamentarian Yuriy Kamelchuk from the ruling Servant of the People party stated that mobilization only covers ‘a maximum of 20-25% of the mobilization needs of the army’.

He also criticized the work of the TSK, saying they take “just anyone.” In particular, he mentioned cases where fathers of four or six children have been mobilized, despite the fact that this is officially prohibited:

“If we sometimes see even guys with prosthetic limbs, who have the proper documentation, being taken to the TRC and told, ‘We’ll sort it out there.’ They’re just working to meet some sort of quota,” (Video at link.)

The front
Now, let’s have a look at how all this is affecting the frontlines.

Ukrainian military telegram Officer summed up the situation on the front with the following June 11 post:

The two hottest spots on the entire front right now are the Sumy region and the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction near the settlement of Komar.

What’s notable is that in both places, due to various reasons (mostly certain issues and fuck-ups on our part), the enemy is achieving some successes and making advances almost daily.


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I drew a circle around the two key hotspots Officer mentions

(More, with paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... -mobilized

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Brief report from the front, June 18, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 18, 2025
Sumy Buffer Zone

From the Russian Defense Ministry report: Units of the "North" Group advanced into the depths of the enemy's defenses and liberated the settlement of Novonikolaevka in Sumy Oblast.

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Буферная Зона=Buffer Zone. ЛБС 31.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 31st, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The "North" Group continues combat operations to establish a buffer zone in the Sumy region.

Today, a small but tactically important village, Novonikolaevka, was liberated. This village covered the right flank of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's defensive line Yunakovka-Novonikolaevka. Only two defensive sectors remain in this line: Yunakovka, where 90% of the territory is under Russian control, and Varachino, where mopping-up operations are nearing completion.

After eliminating this AFU defensive line (conditionally referred to as the "second line"), the Russian Armed Forces will straighten the front of the buffer zone along the Oleshnya-Yunakovka-Kondratovka line. This will secure a convenient logistical network in their rear, consisting of radial and lateral roads, as well as a system of ravines and riverbeds. Additionally, they will reach the Urengoy-Uzhgorod gas pipeline route (the green line in the pop-out map), which lies ahead of the AFU's third (and primary) defensive line of Khoten-Maryino-Mogritsa, covering the city of Sumy (Khoten is spelled "Hoten" on the map and Mogritsa is spelled "Mohritsa"). Furthermore, the AFU's Mogritsa-Miropolye defensive node will face a serious threat to its left flank.

Recognizing the danger of the current situation, the AFU command attempted to halt our advancing units by launching a counterattack in the direction of the village of Alekseevka. They were stopped, partially destroyed, and the remaining forces retreated to their initial positions.

Kupyansk Direction

From the Russian Defense Ministry report: As a result of decisive actions by units of the "West" Group, the settlement of Dolgenkoye in Kharkov region was liberated.

Image

Today, progress was made on the sector north of Kupyansk. According to the 2001 census, only two people lived in the village of Dolgenkoye (Dolhenkoe on the map). However, it is located near the commanding height of 194.8, adjacent to the Dvurechnaya-Shipovatoye highway, which supports a large and well-prepared segment of the AFU's defensive line Volchansk-Kupyansk. At the center of this line lies the fortified defensive and supply area of Velykyi Buruluk, which sustains the entire northern part of Kharkov Oblast bordering Russia.

The Russian Armed Forces command appears to be pressuring the enemy precisely toward this key area, advancing along the routes Kamenka-Kolodeznoe-Velykyi Buruluk, Dvurechnaya-Sadovod-Velykyi Buruluk, and Doroshevka-Lozovaya 1-Velykyi Buruluk. This sector is defended by AFU units and formations hastily assembled from various directions.

The village of Dolgenkoye was defended by the 40th Separate Motorcycle Battalion, which retreated to Redkodub (a different Redkodub from the one liberated on the 4th of June), taking up blocking positions along the Redkodub-Kasyanovka line. This serves as an outpost for the larger AFU defensive area of Sadovod-Shipovatoye-Lozovaya 1, which is protected by two territorial defense brigades supported by the AFU's 3rd Separate Tank Brigade.

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ЛБС 10.11.24=Line of Combat Contact November 10th, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.25=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 2nd, 2025. Участок Продвижения=Area of Advancement.

It seems that, at this stage, all operational priorities of the Russian Armed Forces command in this direction are focused precisely on this area: Sadovod-Shipovatoye-Lozovaya 1.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... t-june-dfd
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Jun 20, 2025 11:47 am

"True Ukrainians"
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 06/20/2025

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“These are soldiers from the Armed Forces, the National Guard, and the State Border Guard Service. Most of them have been held captive since 2022,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote yesterday, announcing the exchange of prisoners of war carried out yesterday in accordance with the agreements reached at the second meeting held in Istanbul between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations. Since direct contacts resumed, the only success has been the handover of bodies of deceased soldiers and humanitarian exchanges, an aspect particularly relevant to families still searching for their missing loved ones. “Although no political breakthrough was achieved, both sides agreed to a phased exchange of prisoners and the repatriation of the bodies of fallen soldiers. As part of that agreement, Russia pledged to return the bodies of up to 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers and citizens,” The Kyiv Independent commented yesterday , almost inadvertently admitting that what was agreed upon was not an exchange of 6,000 bodies of fallen soldiers for each side, but rather a unilateral Russian offer, possibly to highlight the imbalance in casualty figures. For the 6,060 bodies it has handed over to Kiev, Moscow has obtained a total of 78, a difference the media has not seen fit to explain. Maintaining the dogma that Russian casualties are four or five times higher than Ukrainian casualties is more useful to continue justifying that Russia can be defeated at the front.

None of the prisoner exchanges carried out after the second meeting is comparable to the one that followed the first, the largest prisoner exchange since the start of the war in 2014. What stood out was the presence of civilians, an equal number of non-military personnel handed over by each side to the other. And compared to the younger individuals handed over by Russia to Ukraine, the images of elderly people, mostly women, whom Moscow received from Kyiv were striking. At the time, it was assumed that these were civilians from the remotest areas of Kursk, evacuated by Ukraine during the months that the territory was under its control and who should have been able to return to their country without an exchange.

The presence of civilians in this highly publicized POW exchange also surprised some media outlets, such as CNN , who have dedicated articles to the issue. This surprise indicates a certain lack of knowledge, or at least a lack of monitoring, of the conflict from its beginning, since images of men and women, some of them elderly, getting off the rickety buses used for the exchanges during the Donbass war were common. While the People's Republics denounced that Ukraine was detaining civilians simply to increase the exchange fund, Kiev claimed they were collaborators , an exile that sometimes occurred without the country's authorities handing over the person's documentation.

“Last month, Ukraine sent dozens of its own citizens to Russia, freeing them from prisons in an attempt to secure the release of dozens of Ukrainian civilians illegally held in Russian jails, a measure described as desperate and worrying by human rights activists,” explained CNN last week , assuming the civilians handed over by Ukraine were properly imprisoned and those exchanged by Russia were illegally imprisoned. This childish logic of believing the Ukrainian version, without needing to question or engage in the slightest critical thinking, and considering every word coming from Moscow as propaganda, has characterized the analysis of this war from its beginning and reaches its highest level with this type of argument. Having ignored the eight years of war in Donbass, with its already established practices, makes it easy to avoid having to explain that Ukraine has used this modus operandi since 2014.

“I completely understand the sentiment, we all want the people (detained in Russia) to be released as soon as possible, and Russia has no will to do so… but the solution being offered is definitely not the right one,” said Onysiia Syniuk, a legal analyst at Zmina, a Ukrainian human rights group,” the article in the US media continues, always using the logic of blaming Russia for sins that can also be attributed to Ukraine. “According to the Ukrainian government, 70 Ukrainian civilians convicted of collaborating with Russia were released as part of the 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange between Kyiv and Moscow last month,” CNN reports , in whose article it analyzes the method with which Ukraine has targeted these individuals.

“Ukraine declared that all of them went into voluntary exile, as part of a government plan that offers anyone convicted of collaborating with Russia the option of being sent there,” the text states, without at any point questioning the voluntary exile, despite the fact that, in the past, Ukraine has involuntarily included people on exchange lists. Everything seems justified, “but human rights groups and international lawyers say the plan is problematic, contradicts previous statements by the Ukrainian government and could expose more people to the risk of being kidnapped by the Russians.” According to this argument, Ukraine's actions are problematic not because they represent a way to expel people the government despises from the country, but because they may encourage Russia to detain Ukrainians and remove them from its zone of control—that is, to do the same thing Ukraine is doing without causing problems for human rights groups or the national or international press.

The initiative being pursued is not new and was widely publicized at the time of its creation. “After a trial period, Ukraine launched the project called “Хочу к своим” (“I Want to Be with My People”) last July. According to its promoters, the project aims to help facilitate the return of the Ukrainian population currently held captive in the Russian Federation through the exchange of Ukrainian civilians who identify with Russia. The public presentation of the initiative took place on July 25th without raising any alarm, either in Ukraine or in the West, about the idea itself or about the collaboration between the intelligence services—both civilian and military—and the Ombudsman's Office,” we wrote in August 2024 .

“A decisive aspect of this Coordination Headquarters is that it is headed by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR), namely Kirilo Budanov. The technical aspects of the Coordination Headquarters are, in turn, the responsibility of a Working Group led by one of Budanov's closest collaborators at the GUR, Andriy Yusov. In practice, it is an administrative coordination structure under the full control of Ukrainian military intelligence,” continued the article, which cited the project's initiators, explaining that its main objective was “ to make public information about convicted Russian agents, traitors, and collaborators who cooperated with or assisted the Russian occupation forces in the war against Ukraine .” Even at the time, it was striking that this initiative to expel the population, considered inappropriate, was presented as humanitarian and had the explicit support of Ukraine's Ombudsman. However, this was not a completely new idea in this sense either, as in the past, Volodymyr Zelensky had encouraged Ukrainians who identified with Russia to voluntarily move to the neighboring country, a way of making it clear that they were considered an unwanted population.

“The program, called ‘I Want to Go to My Own,’ was launched last year by Ukraine’s Prisoner of War Treatment Coordination Office, the Defense Ministry, the Security Service, and the Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights,” CNN explains . “A government website describing the program includes photos and personal information about some of the 300 Ukrainians the government says have signed up for the program,” it continues, with no need to cast the slightest doubt on Ukraine’s goodwill. “The profiles of 31 of them bear an image of a suitcase and the words ‘GONE,’ with a note saying that ‘he went to Russia while at the same time real Ukrainians were returning home,’” it adds. There is also no mention of the similarities between this idea of ​​contempt for people and mockery when the case is resolved , and the Myrotvorets website, which for years has included Russian, Ukrainian, or international individuals whom Ukraine has considered despicable and/or susceptible to murder, and whose deaths, violent or natural, it has also celebrated.

“According to Kiev, at least 16,000 Ukrainian civilians are known to be detained in Russia, although the true number is likely much higher. Some 37,000 Ukrainians, including civilians, children, and military personnel, are officially recognized as missing,” CNN reports , still not doubting the Ukrainian figures despite the fact that Kiev only managed to provide Russia with a list of 339 minors it considers “abducted” by Russia, far from the thousands it has been claiming for years. “Many have been detained in occupied territories, held for months or even years without charge or trial, and deported to Russia. Among them are activists, journalists, priests, politicians, and community leaders, as well as people whom Russian troops appear to have snatched at random from checkpoints and other locations in occupied Ukraine,” it adds, ignoring similar practices carried out by Ukraine. To these we must add what Sean Walker described in a report on the territories recovered by Ukraine published in The Guardian , which recounted random arrests, accusations of collaborationism, mistreatment and serious harassment of people considered pro-Russian , who had continued to go to their jobs - even in sectors such as maintenance, without any political content - or who simply had not fled to Ukrainian territory when Russian troops arrived.

“The website I Want to Go with Mine offers details of some of those sent to Russia in the prisoner exchange, including the crimes for which they were convicted. Many were serving years-long sentences for collaborating with Moscow. Some were convicted of supporting the invasion or sharing information with Russian troops. Most received sentences of between five and eight years in prison,” CNN explains in the final part of the article , which finally admits that “human rights advocates say the Ukrainian anti-collaboration law, under which these individuals were convicted, is itself problematic.”

Citing Yulia Gorbunova of Human Rights Watch, CNN explains that "among them were cases where 'little or no harm' had been done and where there was no intent to harm national security. Some of the cases concern people who had been working in public service in areas that were then occupied and who simply continued doing their jobs." These words perfectly describe the subjects of Sean Walker's report, which went completely unnoticed amid the wave of Ukrainian nationalism and justification of any action by Kiev that prevails in the West.

“This doesn't mean that there aren't genuine collaborators who commit crimes against national security… who should be punished, but this legislation is so vague that essentially a wide range of activities by people living and working under occupation could be classified as collaboration, which is worrying and problematic,” Gorbunova says, justifying at least part of the exile of Ukrainians whose willingness to sign the document of desire to leave for Russia must be questioned, given the pressure they are under.

“These people are still Ukrainian citizens, and what they say on the website is that they were exchanged for ‘real Ukrainians,’ which is not right at all,” she says, quoting another human rights defender. What the article fails to mention, even subtly, is that this initiative is part of a systematic policy of expulsion, first from the political sphere, then from the public sphere, and finally from the country, of a segment of the population that post-Maidan nationalist Ukraine considers ideologically incorrect and has been trying to get rid of for eleven years.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/20/verda ... cranianos/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Former Intel Beijing CEO William Ho on the China-US standoff and why China is helping Russia

Western media pretend that China doesn’t know what BlackRock, Vanguard and NATO are doing in Europe. They don’t. Beijing sees the entire chessboard. No illusions, no noise. Just the moves. Whatever China does for Russia, it does it with clarity, not confusion. The US

outsourced European sovereignty to Wall Street. BlackRock is now leading the “reconstruction” of Ukraine. Defense contractors are financing Europe’s rearmament. The IMF and Brussels are imposing financial discipline on the ruins. This is not aid. This is terraforming.

China watched the plunder of Iraq. Then Libya. Then Syria. It watched NATO swallow Eastern Europe and place missile systems on Russia’s doorstep. It saw what 2014 was in Ukraine: a hostile merger backed by Anglo-Saxon capital. He knew what was coming.

So no, China’s support for Russia is not accidental. It is a deliberate counterweight to the Anglo-Saxon financial-military complex reshaping Eurasia. The same complex is now eyeing Taiwan and the South China Sea. Everything is interconnected.

Look at the data. China does not supply tanks. It supplies CNC machines, sensors, microelectronics – the same stuff the West sold before sanctions. Now it’s just going through a different channel. Quietly. Relentlessly.

Beijing does not pretend to be neutral. It does not join blocs of its own free will. Its diplomacy is slow, its countermeasures are pinpoint, and its weapons are economic. Russia is a buffer. A testing ground. A living textbook.

The West made a fatal mistake: it assumed that China would play by the same rules it wants to rewrite. Instead, China is creating parallel institutions, parallel logistics, and a parallel monetary sphere. And it does so with partners who have nothing to lose.

China is not supporting Russia out of sentimentality. It is protecting the Eurasian continent from becoming another profit zone for JPMorgan and Raytheon. It is fighting the privatization of sovereignty.

And finally: if you still pretend that China is naive, you are not serious. It knows what the West is. It has seen what it has done. And it is preparing for what comes next.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief report from the front, June 19, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 19, 2025
From the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense: Units of the "Center" Group have advanced into the depths of the enemy’s defenses and liberated the settlement of Novonikolaevka (marked by a Russian flag) in the Donetsk People’s Republic (not the one liberated yesterday in the Sumy region).

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact

Another settlement on the border between Russia and Ukraine has been liberated. In this area, the border follows the bed of the Solena River and descends southward near the village of Muravka. According to available information, Russian army units are conducting clearing operations in Muravka. Thus, along the Novonikolaevka–Muravka–Orekhovo (named after Petrovsky, "Orehovo" on the map)–Novoukrainka sector, the "Center" grouping’s formations are advancing on a broad front toward our state’s border, driving out the Nazi filth from our land.

The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is taking measures to strengthen defenses on the right bank of the Solena River (Dnepropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine), which is significantly steeper and higher than the left bank, from which our assault units are advancing. The enemy is deploying its reserves along the Udachnoe–Novosergeevka–Novopavlovka line (the latter being located on both banks of the Solena River). After the liberation of Muravka, a threat will emerge to the AFU’s right flank in the Udachnoe–Novosergeevka defensive sector and to its left flank in the Novopavlovka–Filiya area.

Further south, near the village of Komar, units of the "East" Group are actively conducting preparatory operations in the direction of Poddubnoye–Zvezda–Yalta, with significant progress by our forward detachments. (Zvezda is the Russian name for “Zirka.”)

Increased activity has been observed in the operational zone of the 5th Guards Combined Arms Army in the direction of Velikaya Novosyolka–Shevchenko. For the second consecutive day, the settlement of Maliyevka, located on the border with Russia, has been under shelling. There are reports of successes by our units in this sector, with tangible results likely in the near future.

In summary—the entire line of combat contact along the Russian border, spanning a lengthy sector from the settlement of Udachnoe to the village of Shevchenko, remains highly active. Offensive and preparatory operations are being vigorously conducted.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... t-june-789

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Counter battles in the border area: the situation in the Sumy direction
June 19, 2025

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The situation in the Sumy direction remains tense along the entire front line. Fierce counter-battles are taking place both in the Tetkino area and on the Kondratovka-Loknya line , where Russian troops continue to expand the buffer zone, pushing the enemy further and further from the state border line.

More about the situation in the area
Heavy counter-battles in Tetkino do not subside . Ukrainian formations still do not abandon attempts to break through to the settlement itself. At the same time, high activity of enemy aircraft is recorded in the area, which indicates that this area is a high priority for them.

To the east, fighting continues on the Kondratovka-Loknya line, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to gather a sufficient number of reserves and launch local counterattacks, trying to penetrate the defensive lines of the Russian Armed Forces between the settlements of Andreyevka and Alekseyevka . At the moment, heavy fighting is underway in this area, but according to the latest information, the Ukrainian formation has not been able to achieve success.

In addition, according to information from the field, assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces were able to push through the enemy’s defenses in Yunakovka , engaging in battles on the northern outskirts of the settlement and coming close to the H-07 highway , which passes through the village and divides it into two halves.

The situation in the Sumy direction remains extremely tense: the enemy continues to attempt to break through the defense in the Tyotkino area and in the Kondratovka-Loknya sector , but all of its attacks have ended in vain. At the same time, Russian assault groups were able to expand the control zone in Yunakovka .

Judging by the actions of both sides, the area remains a priority for both the Russian and Ukrainian Armed Forces. At the same time, the enemy continues to saturate the front with new reserves, sacrificing territories in the DPR for this.

https://rybar.ru/vstrechnye-boi-v-prigr ... pravlenii/

Google Translator

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Financing the war in Ukraine. 2022-2025
June 19, 21:00

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Financing of the war in Ukraine by various countries from February 2022 to February 2025. The top three are the USA, Britain, Germany. Plus, we can separately highlight the expenses of the EU itself, for which it is in second place after the USA.

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Increase in orders from major EU defense companies after the start of the war in Ukraine. On the issue of lobbyists and beneficiaries.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9908915.html

Google Translator

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Russia and Ukraine Ready to Meet for Peace Talks After June 22

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A Russian soldier. X/ @JamestownTweets

June 19, 2025 Hour: 8:01 am

‘If we fail to reach an agreement through peaceful negotiations, we will achieve our goals by military means,’ Putin warned.
On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin said that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are prepared to resume direct talks after June 22.

He reaffirmed Russia’s openness to dialogue, including a possible meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, Putin raised concerns over the legitimacy of Zelensky’s authority.

“I am ready to meet with anyone, including Zelensky. That is not the issue. If Ukraine entrusts him to negotiate, let it be Zelensky. The real question is: who will sign any resulting documents? We are not dealing with propaganda here; when it comes to serious matters, what matters is not political messaging but legal legitimacy.”

Putin also said that if no peaceful resolution is reached, Russia will pursue its objectives in Ukraine by military means. “Undoubtedly, if we fail to reach an agreement through peaceful negotiations, we will achieve our goals by military means,” he said.


He reiterated that the aim of Russia’s special military operation is the demilitarization of Ukraine, depriving it of the capacity to maintain military forces that could endanger Russia.

During a meeting with the heads of leading international news agencies in St. Petersburg, Putin also confirmed that Russia is prepared to hand over the bodies of an additional 3,000 fallen Ukrainian soldiers.

“We have returned the bodies of 6,000 fallen Ukrainian soldiers. We are ready to hand over approximately 3,000 more. These are, I repeat, sad and tragic figures,” he said

https://www.telesurenglish.net/russia-a ... r-june-22/

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April Showers Bring Nazi Startups

Spring 2025 Azov Lobby Review: 'Fortifying the strategic partnership'
Moss Robeson
Jun 18, 2025

Special Operations Week
During the first week of May, the Special Operations Medical Association (SOMA) held its annual conference in Raleigh, North Carolina, “the largest gathering of Special Operations Forces medical providers in the world.”

At least a few medics from the so-called “depoliticized” Azov Brigade/Corps in the National Guard of Ukraine spoke at the event, including Lt. Daryna Smolnikova, who rubbed shoulders with George Soros’ heir at the World Economic Forum in January. Her boyfriend, the famous Azov officer “Gandalf,” who once said he doesn’t “believe in any holocaust, it’s just a story,” already made it to Davos last year. More recently, Illia “Gandalf” Samoilenko met the right-wing pundit Ben Shapiro during his trip to Ukraine for an interview of Volodymyr Zelensky.

The Azov movement’s 3rd Assault Brigade, a more openly neo-Nazi military unit, also sent a delegation to SOMA 2025, thanks to the New York City-based NGO “Razom for Ukraine,” which has been described as the Ukrainian AIPAC. At least some speakers at this event dedicated their time to sharing “key lessons from Ukraine’s medical response … to adapt TCCC [Tactical Combat Casualty Care] practices for future peer conflicts,” that is, between the United States and China.

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One of the presenters from the 3rd Assault Brigade at SOMA 2025

Meanwhile, “SOF Week 2025” kicked off in Tampa, Florida, “the premier annual event for the international Special Operations Forces (SOF) community.” Featured speakers included US intelligence chiefs and military commanders, foreign leaders and defense ministers, with keynote speeches by Pete Hegseth, US Secretary of Defense; Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and Gen. Bryan P. Fenton, Commander of the US Special Operations Command.

“Everything starts and ends with warriors, from training to the battlefield,” said Hegseth. “We are leaving wokeness and weakness behind. No more pronouns, no more climate change obsession, no more emergency vaccine mandates, no more dudes in dresses.” Straight Arrow News reports, “According to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, SOF will shift from a counterterrorism-centric mission to a broader role in great power competition.”

Andriy Smolensky, a severely wounded Ukrainian veteran who has spent many months undergoing treatment in the United States, met General Fenton at SOF Week, which Smolensky attended as the “U.S. Partnership Officer” of a new US-Ukrainian think tank connected to the Azov movement. About a month earlier at Harvard Business School, under the cover of this recently established organization, which is “dedicated to fortifying the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States,” some prominent Azovites probably met Fenton’s Vice Commander of the Special Operations Command. These and other stories about the burgeoning “Azov Lobby” have flown under the radar in recent months.

Nazi Tech Movement
“It’s no secret that all top brigades have their own R&D [research and development],” according to Roman Sudolsky, the editor of an online publication “covering Ukrainian defense tech,” but last month, when the 3rd Assault Brigade (AB3), allegedly the largest of its kind, launched its own “startup accelerator” to support testing new military technology on the battlefield, Sudolsky praised this “next level” step taken by the Azov movement, which is currently forming the 3rd Army Corps. A “Global Macro Investor” based in the San Francisco Bay Area also described the founding of “AB3 Tech” as “next level thinking … to get the best tech for the frontlines.”

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AB3 Tech: “Warfare Driven Solutions”

To hear it from the Azovites, “We combine the expertise of military professionals, engineers, and entrepreneurs to help startups, investors, and defense companies accelerate time-to-market, test products in real combat conditions, and attract funding.” AB3 Tech offers “rapid feedback,” “practical insights,” “brand recognition,” a “competitive edge,” “combat-proven performance data,” “video content of product performance in battlefield conditions,” and official “letters of interest to gain credibility in fundraising.” Their website promises that these neo-Nazis are “trusted by defence industry leaders for real-world validation.”

On May 16-17, the capital of Ukraine hosted “DOU Day,” an annual event which is said to be “one of the largest technical conferences for the Ukrainian IT community.” One of the main speakers was Andriy Biletsky, the leader and founder of the Azov movement, and an infamous neo-Nazi, put in charge of the new 3rd Army Corps. The Azovites called this event their first “IT Dvizh.” As the journalist Leonid Ragozin explains, the Russian word Dvizh is “a slang term widely used by Russian and Ukrainian neo-nazis to designate their [‘NS’ or National Socialist] movement.” Celebrating its 20th anniversary, the Ukrainian IT community “DOU” launched a large fundraiser for the 3rd Assault Brigade, just as AB3 Tech got off the ground. DOU even rolled out a special website for the campaign.

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Biletsky and AB3 Tech at DOU Day 2025

This seasonal edition of the Azov Lobby Blog almost started with something I missed in my last one (Winter 2025). Taking place alongside the Munich Security Conference in February, the German-based European Defense Tech Hub (EDTH) held a “hackathon” featuring a unique representative of the Azov movement’s 3rd Assault Brigade. Viktoria “Tori” Honcharuk, 25, moved to the United States at 15 years old, started an investment banking career on Wall Street, and got accepted to Harvard University. “I was living the life of my dreams,” she says. Since 2022, Honcharuk returned to Ukraine to become a combat medic, ultimately in the 3rd Assault Brigade, “where her sister serves as an assault rifleman.” This year, she co-founded AB3 Tech and a think tank.



Viktoria Honcharuk seems to be dating Mykola “Makar” Zinkevich, a young neo-Nazi commander from the 3rd Assault Brigade, specifically from its “Dirlewanger” company, which takes inspiration from one of Nazi Germany’s most horrendous military units. He has some suspicious arm tattoos—a valknut and life rune, “one of the most common neo-Nazi symbols.” Zinkevich is also affiliated with the Lviv-based neo-Nazi organization “Galician Youth,” which intimidates LGBT people, pays homage to the Galicia Division of the Waffen-SS, and distributed antisemitic fliers in the year before the full-scale war with Russia.

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Zinkevich receiving a Glock-19 pistol from Azov leader Andriy Biletsky and repping the Galician Youth (“GalMolod”), which spread not just antisemitic, but also anti-Muslim, anti-communist, and anti-LGBT fliers in 2021 featuring crossed “stick hand grenades,” resembling the symbol of the SS Dirlewanger Brigade.

Last month in Lviv, the European Defense Tech Hub held “our boldest and most impactful hackathon,” for which it partnered with AB3 Tech, the Galician Youth, Zinkevich’s “NC-13” platoon, the 3rd Assault Brigade’s “Killhouse” drone school, and the Azovite paramilitary youth group “Centuria,” which more or less forms the neo-Nazi backbone of the Azov movement. (This year in Zelensky’s hometown, the local branch of Centuria welcomed the spring equinox with a Nazi pagan ceremony.) (Video at link.)

There’s more to say about “Tori” and “Makar,” but first, a bit more about this year’s hackathons. In Munich, the Ukrainian government’s “defense tech cluster” Brave1 was represented by its CEO Nataliia Kushnerska, who also directs the Ukrainian Startup Fund, another state institution. Also present was Ragnar Sass, whose name might ring a bell for readers of my Medium blog. Sass is an Estonian entrepreneur, and according to him, an angel investor in over 50 companies, who made a name for himself delivering NAFO-themed trucks to the frontlines in Ukraine. The Azov units, including the 3rd Assault Brigade and Kraken Regiment, rank among the top recipients of these vehicles.

Last year, Sass co-founded the Darkstar Coalition which consists of “over 30+ unicorn founders, hackers, and investors from Estonia, Ukraine, Germany, France and UK. We are united by one goal: building up the European Defense Tech ecosystem!” This coalition has reportedly partnered with Brave1 and representatives from Ukrainian Military Intelligence. “Every fucking day has a price,” the Estonian roused Bavarian hackers in the birthplace of Nazism, wearing a hoodie from Ukraine’s 14th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment, which appears to have partially originated in the neo-Nazi organization C14. “Ukraine has to fight smart, and to fight smart we need to be ahead of the game in defense tech,” said Honcharuk.

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Zinkevich (second to left) at the latest hackathon in Lviv

In the first days of spring, Ukrainska Pravda, the top online media outlet in the country, held an awards ceremony in Kyiv to honor 100 women who “defend Ukraine on the front lines, turn difficult circumstances into opportunities for business and the public sector, develop Ukrainian culture, sports, science and creative industries, and bring important changes to Ukraine.” One of the recipients of this “Women’s Power Award” went to the ceremony with her boyfriend from the Dirlewanger Company. In March of this year, they appeared in a music video to raise money for the 3rd Assault Brigade, alongside their mustachioed neo-Nazi hipster friend, “Nehidnyk,” another combat medic, whose left arm is covered in fractal swastika tattoos. (Video at link.)

(Much, much more at link. There are no Nazis in Ukraine...)

https://azovlobby.substack.com/p/april- ... i-startups

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Critiquing Trump’s Point About Russia, The G7, & Ukraine
Andrew Korybko
Jun 20, 2025

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Trump’s point is all over the place, being sensible, incomplete, and disingenuous all in one.

Trump shocked his G7 peers during their latest summit when he claimed that Russia’s special operation wouldn’t have happened if Putin wasn’t thrown out of the group in 2014. He described their decision as a mistake, said that it complicated diplomacy by removing him from the table, and added that Putin was so insulted that he now “doesn’t speak to anybody else” but him. Trump’s point is sensible but incomplete and arguably even disingenuous in some ways for the reasons that’ll now be explained.

To begin with, there’s a logic to arguing that the Ukrainian Conflict might not have escalated had Putin continued to meet yearly with his now-former G7 peers to discuss it in that format, but this ignores the fact that some of these same peers were manipulating him the whole time. Former French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel later admitted that the Minsk Accords that they agreed to were just a ruse for buying time to rearm Ukraine ahead of reconquering Donbass.

This leads to the next point about the Minsk Accords, which were agreed to after those two engaged in talks with Putin himself, thus contradicting Trump’s claim that Putin was so insulted by being thrown out of the G7 that he no longer spoke to any of his former peers from that group about Ukraine. In reality, he remained close to Merkel and later lamented that he’d been duped by her, who he truly believed shared his interests in politically resolving the conflict in order to then normalize Russian-EU relations.

Moving along, while Putin said in late December 2017 that he’s not against formal American participation in the Normandy Four format due to it already being part of the settlement through its involvement in the conflict, no tangible progress was made to bring this about. That was probably because he assessed at the time that the US might ruin those peace talks, not having yet realized that they were doomed from the get-go, by pressuring France, Germany, and Ukraine not to abide by Minsk.

The abovementioned observations are relevant since they prove that Putin was engaged in what he truly believed to be sincere diplomatic talks about Ukraine with G7 members France and Germany. At the same time, he also held talks with Obama, Trump, and Biden about this conflict too, none of whom did anything to coerce Ukraine into compliance with Minsk and thus avert the conflict that would later come. Trump is therefore just as guilty as his predecessor, successor, and his G7 peers at the time.

Actually, Trump might even arguably share a greater degree of guilt than any of them given how proud he is of having sold Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, which emboldened Zelensky to eschew his obligations under Minsk and later played an important role in repelling some of Russia’s forces early on. His guilty conscience might thus explain why he sought to shift the blame for Russia’s special operation onto others as well as make such a show out of trying to resolve the conflict despite no success so far.

With all this insight in mind, Trump’s point is all over the place, being sensible, incomplete, and disingenuous all in one. In the order mentioned: retaining Putin’s seat at the G7 table could have averted the special operation in theory; but only if his peers sincerely wanted to, which some of them didn’t; and Trump’s sale of Javelins to Ukraine emboldened Zelensky to refuse Putin’s demands for peace, thus making him partially responsible for the conflict, something that his ego will never let him admit.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/critiqui ... out-russia
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Jun 21, 2025 12:22 pm

Two wars, one speech

Posted by @nsanzo

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Intense due to the international circumstances in which it took place, but dull due to the total lack of significant progress, the G7 summit has given way to preparations for the annual NATO meeting, which will be held in The Hague next week and is expected to be much more contentious. After all, the G7 is currently composed of a single-minded bloc, from which only Donald Trump distances himself. Perhaps to deal with the situation in the Middle East or simply out of disinterest in a meeting from which he had nothing to gain, the US president hastily left Canada to return to Washington to continue threatening Iran, meet with soccer players at the White House, and address the issue of war against Iran like a screenwriter prepares a cliffhanger to end each chapter and compel the audience to watch the next. After his flippant comment that "nobody knows what I'm going to do," Donald Trump announced on Thursday that, given the possibility of some form of diplomacy—with a gun to his head, since he has publicly and in capital letters demanded Iran's unconditional surrender—he is taking a moment to decide whether the United States will intervene in the offensive phase of this war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Washington, like London, is already participating in the defense of the aggressor country, Israel, which continues to demand that, in the face of an imaginary imminent danger, the United States intervene on its side.

According to Donald Trump, the decision will come at some unspecified time in the next two weeks. Guaranteed constant attention on his every move, the US president is hovering between the option of using the most powerful weapons in his arsenal to try to destroy Iran's most important nuclear infrastructure, the Fordow sites, protected underground, or supporting Israel from afar. Either option will end, as did the campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, with a declaration of victory. The United States will have defeated Iran—real or imaginary—no matter what happens, since in the event of a diplomatic agreement, Trump will claim, as he did in the case of India and Pakistan, that he avoided a nuclear war that didn't exist, while any US destruction in Iran will be presented as unprecedented. Donald Trump is thus torn between taking a step that could put his name on a war—Bush had the one in Iraq, Obama the one in Libya—or seeking a peace broken by his ally and proxy with which to win the prizes he also seeks.

Either scenario currently involves continuing to support Israel in its attempt to shoot down Iranian drones and missiles, an area in which even Tel Aviv admits it is struggling. On Thursday, the interception rate had dropped from the initial 90% to 65%, and on Friday morning, Israel's echeloned air defenses were unable to shoot down the only missile launched from Iran. American and British reinforcements are on the way. The situation also means that Trump remains more interested in the war in the Middle East, a region much more interesting to the tycoon, who since his first term has surrounded himself with Iran-obsessed hawks, than in issues he has already insisted he is fed up with, such as the war in Ukraine. Although annoyed with Vladimir Putin for not budging from his red lines despite the United States offering significant incentives—the return of American companies to Russia, possible readmission to what Keith Kellogg called the "appropriate nations," and, for a moment, de jure recognition of control over Crimea—Donald Trump has not followed the path Zelensky had hoped and shifted his full support to Ukraine.

Judging by the extensive report Politico devotes to Andriy Ermak, Zelensky's right-hand man, Ukraine is currently having a communication problem with the United States, fed up with the Green Cardinal , whom both parties seem to view as excessively demanding. This is the juncture in which Volodymyr Zelensky will try, for the second time in less than a week, to hold a direct meeting with Donald Trump to present his acquisition plan for a military package focused on air defense, a finite and scarce material for which he now has to compete with a much more important country for the United States, Israel. It helps Kiev that the war in the Middle East has repeated the two blocs that were already present in the war in Ukraine.

Western countries have shown their explicit support for Israel, describing its aggression as a "right to defend itself" against "the country that is destabilizing the region"—although it is not Tehran that has bombed or attacked Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran in the last year—with European countries completely aligned with the US's maximalist position. Like the White House, France and Germany, whose chancellor has been the most honest in admitting that "Israel is doing our dirty work," have joined the countries demanding that Iran renounce something it has the right to do: the enrichment of uranium for civilian purposes. According to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a signatory, there are two types of countries: those with nuclear weapons and those without. The West now wants to create a third type, Iran, on which restrictions are imposed that do not exist for the rest.

Against these countries, the Global South, which also mobilized diplomatically to try, unsuccessfully, to stop the war in Europe, advocates for de-escalation and a reasonable agreement in which all parties benefit. This is also the logic of Russia and China, which both separately and following the conversation between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, have condemned the Israeli attack, in Vladimir Putin's case directly to Donald Trump, and demand an immediate de-escalation and an agreement under which Iran continues to operate the civilian nuclear program permitted by the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Like the Global South, Moscow and Beijing also warn of the enormous danger posed by bombing nuclear facilities. Russia, which, according to several media outlets, has negotiated with Israel the safety of its nationals collaborating in Iran's nuclear energy program, has particularly insisted on warning of the possibility of a new Chernobyl, something that does not seem to worry Tel Aviv or Washington, which would not be affected. Israel continues to bomb nuclear facilities, including reactors, daily.

Despite the predictable attempt by European countries to have Ukraine regain its presence, everything indicates that Iran and Israel will also dominate the NATO summit, which will also be marked by Donald Trump's order for a sharp increase in military spending. With the authoritarianism of a country that knows it is indispensable to the Alliance, the United States is demanding that all member countries progressively increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, with 3.5% spent on purely military spending and the remainder on security in the broadest sense (financing Ukraine, cybersecurity, militarization of the police and borders, etc.). Without any anti-militarist resistance, the only criticism comes from countries like Spain, which lacks the parliamentary arithmetic to increase military spending. This internal debate this week also has the potential to further steer the conversation away from the points desired by Ukraine, which already knows that, this time, there will be no explicit mention of its accession to the Alliance and that it will lack the prominent presence guaranteed during the Joe Biden years.

Aware that Iran has stolen some of his thunder, Volodymyr Zelensky is seeking ways to insert himself into the Western bloc as a useful country in this new common struggle against another historic enemy and, above all, to present both wars as one in order to subtly secure greater Western involvement. Knowing that he cannot afford to offend the United States by demanding equal treatment to that received by Israel, which relies on Washington's direct participation in the downing of drones and missiles and has received millions in military aid continuously for decades, has forced Zelensky to be less explicit than on previous occasions. During Biden's time, when it was certain that the US president would neither make any public reproaches nor punish Ukraine with ingratitude, Ukraine went so far as to demand that its allies act as they did a year ago, shooting down Iranian missiles in response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on the day of the inauguration of the new Iranian government. Currently, kyiv, having learned the lesson of Volodymyr Zelensky's humiliation in the Oval Office, is limiting itself to equating Russia and Iran and linking the two wars in the hope that its allies will understand the underlying demand.

“Right now, Russia is trying to save Iran's nuclear program; there is no other way to interpret its public signals and behind-the-scenes activity. When one of its accomplices loses the ability to export war, Russia suffers and tries to intervene,” Zelensky stated yesterday, without explaining how a civilian nuclear program has the ability to export war . “This is pure cynicism,” he insisted, “and this, time and again, shows that aggressive regimes should not be allowed to unite and become partners.” In reality, there is another way to understand Russia's intervention with the United States and Israel: an offer of mediation to reach a nuclear agreement that, like the 2015 agreement, would subject Iran's nuclear program to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which continues to certify that it has no indication that Tehran had plans to produce nuclear weapons. Without the capacity to feel the slightest solidarity with another country under attack, threatened with massive bombings and terrorized by an evacuation order for its capital (of more than 9 million inhabitants) issued by Donald Trump through his personal social media account, Ukraine is applying the most extreme cynicism to seek to blame the victim and, collaterally, its Russian enemy.

Taking advantage of the death of a Ukrainian minor in Israel, Andriy Ermak took the argument a step further. “Since 2022, Russia has been killing Ukrainians, including our children, with Iranian drones. It has launched missile attacks against civilians. And today it supports Iran in its attacks against civilians in Israel,” he wrote, without specifying that Israel is the aggressor and that the death toll currently stands at 24 in Israel and over 400 in Iran (which Tehran hasn't updated for several days, so the difference is even higher). “The same tragedy can happen anywhere when terrorists disguise themselves as states. The regimes of Iran and Russia are terrorists. Identical in their actions and nature,” he insisted. Only Ukraine and Israel—which this week carried out the unprovoked attack in Ukraine that the West continues to accuse Russia of—have the right to defend themselves, and their allies have an obligation to provide them with aid in a war that kyiv presents as a common one, not only against Russia but also against Iran.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/21/dos-g ... -discurso/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of the SVO (June 14-20, 2025) From June 14 to 20 this year, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out six group strikes with high-precision weapons and attack unmanned aerial vehicles, as a result of which enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, fuel and energy infrastructure facilities providing the Armed Forces of Ukraine, air defense radar stations, arsenals, production workshops, storage and launch sites for attack unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as temporary deployment points of Ukrainian armed formations, special operations forces and foreign mercenaries were damaged. Offensive of the "North" group: During the advance, the settlement of Novomykolaivka in the Sumy region was liberated. In the Kharkiv direction, units of mechanized, motorized infantry brigades, territorial defense and the National Guard were damaged. The enemy's total losses amounted to over 1,250 servicemen, 22 armored vehicles, 25 vehicles, and 24 guns. Two EW stations and 11 warehouses were destroyed. Actions of the West group: The settlements of Moskovka and Dolgenkoye in the Kharkiv region were liberated. Formations of three mechanized and two assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as territorial defense units, were destroyed. The enemy lost over 1,480 men, a tank, seven armored vehicles, 58 vehicles, and four guns. 12 EW stations and 25 ammunition depots were eliminated. Achievements of the South group: Positions on the front line were improved. The Ukrainian Armed Forces' losses exceeded 1,390 men, a tank, 10 armored vehicles (including three American M113s), 16 vehicles, and 12 guns were destroyed. Seven EW stations and 14 warehouses were destroyed. Offensive of the "Center" group: The advance in the DPR and Dnipropetrovsk region continued. Zeleny Kut, Ulyanovka and Novonikolaevka were liberated. Over 3,410 soldiers, 43 armored fighting vehicles (including seven M113), 34 vehicles and 13 guns (three of them Western self-propelled guns) were destroyed. Over the past week, units of the "East" group of forces advanced deep into the enemy's defenses. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 1,350 soldiers, a tank, 12 armored combat vehicles, 54 vehicles, 15 field artillery guns, six electronic and counter-battery warfare stations. Operations of the "Dnepr" group: The mechanized and mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated. Over 470 troops, armored fighting vehicles, 54 vehicles, three guns, 15 electronic warfare stations and 15 warehouses were destroyed. Over the week, 29 JDAM bombs, eight HIMARS shells and 1,190 UAVs were shot down, 562 of which were outside the SVO zone.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Brief report from the front, June 20, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 20, 2025

Statement From The Russian Ministry of Defense: As a result of decisive operations by units of the "West" military group, the settlement of Moskovka in the Kharkov region has been liberated.

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ЛБС 20.6.2025=June 20th, 2025. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

The village of Moskovka (also known as Mirnoye) is located on the right bank of the Kupyanka River and directly adjoins the city of Kupyansk. Before the start of the Special Military Operation, its population was approximately 500 people.

This development was entirely predictable. Following recent advances near the village of Dolgenkoye (Dolhenkoe on the map, 18 km to the north) and the deployment of mobile reserve units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to this sector to block further progress of our assault groups toward the village of Redkodub, activity was expected to intensify in an area 20–25 km to the left or right. This is exactly what happened—from the settlement of Radkovka, across the small Kupyanka River.

This is not the first attempt to encircle Kupyansk from the north. Given the current dynamics, we anticipate an escalation in combat operations further north, in the direction of Kolodeznoye.

The Russian Bear is shaking the defenses of the Nazi pigsty...

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... t-june-9f6

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Tucker Carlson Interviews Patrick Lancaster: From the Frontlines: What They’re Not Telling You About the Russia/Ukraine War
June 20, 2025



https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/06/tuc ... raine-war/

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(Apparently there's nothing else going on in Ukraine...)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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