Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Jun 22, 2025 12:16 pm

The enigma of Ukraine
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 06/22/2025

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“The scandal surrounding Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Chernyshov is worsening,” the Ukrainian daily Strana wrote yesterday. “This week, his closest associates were arrested and are in custody in connection with a corruption case involving the receipt of a bribe from a real estate developer in the form of an apartment. The case material, read out by prosecutors from the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office in court, explicitly mentions Chernyshov's involvement, as he is believed to be the central figure in the plot.” Corruption has been a recurring theme in Western discourse on Ukraine over the past decade, both to justify the West's greater involvement in the fight for European and democratic values ​​and to demand that Kyiv take steps to relinquish more sovereignty to structures under its control. The Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office is, in this sense, the best example of institutions created by and for what, during the pre-Russian invasion, was considered “external control.” At this point, any case of corruption represents a public humiliation for kyiv and, above all, provides an argument for those who argue that the United States should no longer support the Ukrainian war effort.

This case, which affects people very close to one of the highest government officials, involves, in addition to questioning the chains of power in the country, an additional aspect. “Chernyshov is abroad and has not been seen in Kyiv since then. According to Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal, his work trip ends at the end of this week. But whether he will return to Ukraine remains unknown. According to Strana, he has already taken his family abroad. Yesterday, he was seen in Vienna,” Strana added yesterday . The fact that the question of whether the deputy prime minister will return to the country is reminiscent of the cases of people who have left Ukraine on authorized trips or government missions and simply have not returned, another headache for a country trying, without much success, to keep its population in the country or to return if they left in 2022.

The current corruption accusation is not the most serious, nor will it likely be the last, but it comes at a time when Ukraine needs to maintain its international credibility if it wants to continue receiving the economic, political, military, and diplomatic support that has made it possible for a country in its current financial situation, with a significant portion of its population abroad and no capacity to supply its army, to continue fighting with guarantees after three years. Russian military pressure continues in Sumi despite Vladimir Putin's statements that Russian troops are not tasked with capturing the city, although this could happen; in Kharkiv, where they are gradually approaching Kupyansk; and in Donetsk, where Russia is advancing westward to try to encircle Pokrovsk while advancing from Chasov Yar toward Konstantinovka. Added to this situation is the international uncertainty stemming from the airborne war currently taking place in the Middle East, which could force Ukraine to compete with Israel as the main priority for the supply of military equipment and ammunition to the United States.

And despite the disdain with which he has occasionally expressed Vladimir Putin's stance, Trump's disappointment with Russia has not, for the moment, translated into a rapprochement with Ukraine. Attempts to open up to Russia and its allies continue. The latest occurred yesterday, with Keith Kellogg's visit to Belarus, where he met with Alexander Lukashenko. Moreover, the fact that even in his telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin, the main topic was Iran suggests that the situation in the Middle East has been a relief for the US president, who is tired of being questioned by the press about when the long-awaited ceasefire will come.

Zelensky's difficulties are not limited to the military situation, anxiety over the loss of international prominence due to the war in the Middle East, or corruption, but rather come at a time when the press is beginning to expose the rift between Ukraine and the United States. During recent visits to the United States, kyiv's attempt to present Yulia Svyrydenko, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy, and the person in charge of signing the minerals agreement with the US Secretary of the Treasury, as the most important figure in the delegation has been obvious. This is not a casual change of position or a return to the hierarchies that existed before the war, when the government was the commanding body instead of the President's Office, which currently monopolizes decision-making and exercises power concentrated in increasingly fewer people.

“Amid the bitter political battles that have engulfed Washington over Ukraine, there is a rare point of bipartisan consensus: Everyone is fed up with Andriy Ermak, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky,” writes the American outlet Politico this week in an article titled “The Enigma of Andriy Ermak.” The head of the President’s Office, Volodymyr Zelensky’s right-hand man and considered the second most powerful person in Ukraine, if not the first, is the subject of a lengthy and unusually critical article in a newspaper considered a benchmark.

“The second most powerful man in Ukraine, Ermak has been a particularly frustrating interlocutor for the Trump administration, according to 10 people familiar with his interactions,” writes Politico , which, while not the first outlet to highlight the concentration of power, arrogance, brusqueness, and excessive demands of President Zelensky’s confidant, is undoubtedly the most critical. Citing one of its sources in Congress, the article describes Ermak, arguably Zelensky’s most important person in his work to consolidate Ukraine as a leading Western cause, as a “bipartisan irritant” and, recalling his many visits to Washington, laments that “many in Washington consider Ermak to be ill-informed about U.S. policy, abrasive and overly demanding of U.S. officials, and generally incapable of navigating the intricacies of the Washington establishment on Capitol Hill. Some also worry that he has not adequately conveyed U.S. positions to the Ukrainian leadership.” It doesn't occur to those involved in writing the article or their sources that all this arrogance and lack of understanding of the forms, timing, and content of US policy, or the manipulated information transmitted in kyiv, is not a failure of the system but rather its operation as planned.

The behavior described by Politico throughout the article is perfectly consistent with the denial of reality in pursuit of its own interests that has been Ukraine's modus operandi since 2014. Throughout the Minsk process, Ukraine consistently demanded steps that contradicted the signed agreement, all while making clear its intention not to implement the roadmap but demanding that Russia fulfill its part. This denial of reality has also been an integral part of Ukrainian political communication regarding the development of actions on the front lines: even now, Zelensky maintains the fiction of the success of the Kursk operation.

Refusing to accept reality and continuing to pretend that the facts correspond to its needs has also been the way Ukraine has allowed itself to demand assistance from its partners far in excess of what would have been reasonable. This is the logic with which Zelensky has demanded that his allies commit to investing in Ukrainian industry. “This year alone, $43 billion has been allocated to support Ukraine’s defense industry. Next year, we urge each ally to allocate 0.25% of their GDP to this end. Because supporting Ukraine’s defense means supporting Europe’s security,” he wrote yesterday on social media. Ukraine is, and always has been, a demanding proxy, in which Yermak’s position is not a gaffe or a lack of understanding of US policy, but simply the strategy that had worked so well up until the Oval Office meeting and that has continued to work even after that moment of humiliation.

“I don't have the ambition to fully understand how American politics work: I'm here to talk about the country I know best: Ukraine,” Ermak responded in a statement to Politico 's claims that he is “increasingly threatening the already tense relationship between Ukraine and the Trump administration at a critical juncture where Kyiv relies on US support to defend itself against Russia's continued attacks.” However, despite Ermak's arrogant response, he did not overlook the fact that Marco Rubio, to Ukraine's surprise, canceled the planned meeting and that Zelensky's right-hand man was only able to meet with lower-level and less powerful officials during his visit to the State Department, where he briefly crossed paths with the Secretary of State. An image of a quick greeting in a hallway was published by Ukraine, implying that a meeting had taken place, yet another sign of the use of a reality that is sometimes just a fiction.

Without a real meeting with Rubio or the White House chief of staff, who, according to Politico , kept Ermak waiting for hours before canceling the meeting, and with JD Vance not even responding to the request for a meeting, Ukraine was forced to subsequently change the purpose of the trip. After the obvious disappointment, Ukraine claimed that "the main purpose of the trip, in which Ermak was accompanied by a delegation of senior Ukrainian officials, was to conduct a high-level, closed briefing for members of the US Senate on the state of the war and the humanitarian situation in Ukraine and to discuss imposing new sanctions on Russia." Arguably the most pro-Ukrainian institution in the Western political establishment , US senators don't need a visit from one of Zelensky's closest officials to gain information on the humanitarian or military situation on the Ukrainian front, but they are a group to turn to when a public outcry is needed.

The subtext of the article is that Zelensky has a problem in his relationship with the United States, where Ermak's demands and arrogance are beginning to be seen as a liability. "He thought, for example, that the critical minerals deal was so important to Trump that he would get security guarantees from Ukraine in return," one of Politico 's sources is surprised , not understanding that this misinterpretation , or simply a denial of reality as a tool of pressure, is not a characteristic of Andriy Ermak but the political strategy of the Ukrainian state. If this method is starting to seem excessive or arrogant, it's not a problem with the people but with the messages, something much more difficult to change than the officials who are sent on official visits.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/22/el-enigma-de-ucrania/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
By the way, it is quite possible to assume that the US negotiations with the Russian Federation in recent months were conducted in order to soften the position of the Russian Federation before a possible attack on Iran, preparations for which, according to the Americans themselves, had been underway since 2024 (under Biden).

Negotiations were conducted through Whitkoff, who was used to mislead the Iranian leadership regarding the timing of the start of the Israeli and US attack on Iran (which the US openly admitted, and Iranian generals indicated as one of the reasons for the incorrect timing of the start of the war).

Accordingly, a reasonable question arises whether the entire process of negotiations with the US through Whitkoff is not the same strategic misleading of the Russian military-political leadership regarding the long-term strategy of the US. Can there be any trust
in the assurances and proposals of such counterparties?

***



Google Translator

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Where the foot of a Russian soldier steps is ours
June 21, 13:12

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From Putin's statements in an interview with Sky News Arabia:

- Kiev should pursue national interests, and not the interests of puppet regimes acting against the Russian Federation;

- Ukraine needs to declare neutrality - not arm itself with nuclear weapons and not join foreign alliances;

- when settling the Ukrainian conflict, it is necessary to ensure the rights of the Russian language and pro-Russian residents;

- Ukraine deserves a better fate than being an instrument in the hands of third parties;

- Kiev should recognize the results of referendums in four regions

- Russia has repeatedly notified Israel that there is no evidence of Iran's intentions to obtain nuclear weapons

- The IAEA has no data that Iran has attempted to create nuclear weapons.

- Iran has the right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

- Russia is against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, including Iran acquiring them.

- The Russian Federation is ready to support Iran in the development of peaceful nuclear energy.


As is easy to see from all the latest statements, the Russian Federation does not abandon any of the goals of the SVO + announces that delays in accepting realities on the ground will lead to major territorial losses for Ukraine. It was not for nothing that Sumy was announced yesterday.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9911967.html

Tactical group "Ugledar" disbanded
June 21, 15:13

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THE COMMANDER OF THE TACTICAL GROUP "UGLEDAR" OF THE AFU OF UKRAINE HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM POSITION

Almost simultaneously with the liberation of the settlement of Zaporizhia in the DPR, news came about the dismissal of Sergei Naev from the post of commander of the tactical group "Ugledar" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The group itself was disbanded.

In February 2025, after taking office, Lieutenant General Sergei Naev stated the following:
the Ukrainian military is quite capable of reaching the borders of 1991 and even creating a buffer zone around Ukraine.

Summing up the results of his work, we can safely say that Mr. Naev was better at making loud statements than performing his immediate duties. From the end of February to June 21, 2025, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to lose 427 square kilometers of territory and 13 settlements in this direction - Konstantinopol, Dneproenergiya, Privolnoye, Volnoye Pole, Vesyoloye, Razliv, Bogatyr, Zelenoye Pole, Novopol, Otradnoye, Fyodorovka, Komar. Zaporizhia became a kind of "demobilization chord" for Mr. Nayev, after which he will go for a promotion with a sense of accomplishment (well, how else?).

Nayev began his service as commander of the "Ugledar" tactical group with a loud statement, and he ended it with the same one:

Despite the enemy's numerical superiority in manpower and equipment, we managed to improve the tactical situation five times, lure the enemy into a trap and destroy his equipment seven times. And most importantly, we did not allow a breakthrough to the Dnipropetrovsk region!

Well, as they say, the result is there. Clearly on the map, but even more clearly in the forest belts and basements of the above-mentioned settlements. It is from there that the results of Nayev's leadership will be extracted by the "evil orcs" and sent in refrigerated trucks during the next transfer of the bodies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine servicemen to the Ukrainian side.

If the guys from the Ukrainian Armed Forces are reading us and what is happening is causing them some concern, we recommend that you read the instructions ( https://t.me/help_ukrs/10 ) on how not to repeat the fate of your comrades in the South Donetsk direction.

@voin_dv - zinc

The offensive in the southwest of the DPR continues successfully.
Below, footage of the liberation of Zaporozhye. (Video at link.)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9912139.html

Russia has only 2-3 days' worth of missiles left

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June 21, 18:55

The enemy whines that despite the constant expenditure of missiles in Ukraine, their number in Russia is only growing.
I am sure that in fact there are even more. Moreover, this concerns drones, which are being produced in ever-increasing volumes with an eye on reaching 500 Geranium launches per day by September. In the summer, a new workshop in Tatarstan should be completed (the enemy will, of course, try to attack it), and North Korean workers should also arrive to assemble new drones.

Of course, a lot of missiles need to be made. Both in the interests of the war in Ukraine and for a potential war with NATO. As the war in the Middle East shows, a large number of ballistic missiles is a weighty argument.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9912607.html

2 Iskanders launched. 3 shot down.
June 21, 21:02

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With such an efficiency of shooting down "Isknaders" 3 out of 2, it is not even clear what these "PPO titans" are still doing in Ukraine. They should have been urgently recalled to defend Tel Aviv.

In fact, "PPO Titans" have been making up their victories out of thin air since the beginning of the war and periodically get confused in their own lies, which they have been repeatedly caught doing even in Ukraine.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9913078.html

Google Translator

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Brief report from the front, June 21, 2025

Another breach has been made in the difficult terrain of the DPR border area. Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 21, 2025

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact

The "East" Group of the Russian Forces continues to destroy a large defensive node of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Novopavlovka-Ivanovka-Poddubnoye-Filiya (in an area of ​​approximately 8 x 12 km), in the difficult terrain of the DPR border area. The villages of Zaporozhye (about 100 residents), Yalta (about 140 residents), and Zvezda (Ukrainian: Zirka, about 150 residents) - the forward area of ​​this defense hub - are located on the northwestern slope of the watershed of the Volchya and Mokrye Yaly rivers while the flanks and rear of this defense area are protected behind the Volchya and Mokrye Yaly rivers. The liberation of the village of Zaporozhye has created a breach in the defense of this area. (The Volchya River, "Волчья" is in blue right next to Dachnoe. The Mokrye Yaly, "Мокрые Ялы" can be seen passing through Tolstoy and in front of Poddubnoe, Mirnoe, and Perebudova.)

In order to ensure the advancement of units of the nearby "Center" Group of the Russian Forces to the north - along the Volchya River (in the direction of Novoukrainka-Filiya) and to solve the operational tasks in its zone of responsibility of eliminating the defense area of ​​the Ukrainian Armed Forces Voskresenka-Kamyshevka-Shevchenko, the "East" group needs tight control of the territory on the west bank of the Mokrye Yaly River.

Further south, in the Veseloye-Fyodorovka (Fedorovka on the map) area, a small bridgehead has been created on the west bank, but the enemy is located on a higher section of terrain with support on the Iskra-Shevchenko road and is preventing its expansion.

After capturing the Zvezda (Zirka) - Yalta - Zaporozhye area and reaching the Poddubnoe - K. Marksa (Mirnoe) line, where the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Perebudova (Perestroika) will be overcome, and the network of AFU strongholds, Poddubnoe - Mirnoe (K. Marksa) - Perebudova (Perestroika), will be destroyed, which cover the left flank of the Voskresenka - Kamyshevakha - Shevchenko defense node, units of the Russian Armed Forces will ensure a broad frontal path to the state border of the Russian Federation* on the Voskresenka - Maliyevka - Kamyshevakha - Temirovka line.

*Translator Note: In case it isn't clear, the "state border of the Russian Federation” is the border with the Dnepropetrovsk Oblast.

Bonus commentary from Mikhail:

On Substack, in the responses to a post from 17.6.25, the first comment asks why Russia does not destroy bridges and logistics deep in the territory of Ukraine.

The answer may be as follows:

If Russia strikes at the logistics of Ukraine and Poland, this is not so great because:

1. The expenditure of expensive weapons on inexpensive targets: the routes of movement will be quickly restored and deep in the territory there are many bypass routes and delivery options. Destroying a capital bridge is a difficult and very expensive task.

It is advantageous to destroy a bridge in the area of ​​direct combat operations in order to impede the maneuver of forces and means when the enemy needs to maneuver quickly

2. The weapons will remain intact and combat-ready.

Russia's goal is demilitarization, which means the destruction of the armed forces and weapons of Ukraine.

And in the way Russia acts, Ukraine itself (with its own money and the money of the West) delivers "raw materials to the meat grinder" and there the weapons are turned into scrap metal. They simply cease to exist, and the economies of Ukraine's allied states cannot compensate for this.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... t-june-213

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MoA, comments:

The latest week's Ukrainian casualties and other losses as reported by the Russian Military. I track these weekly numbers, and the trend in all armoured vehicles (tanks, IFV/AFV, APC, HMV/Light Armoured Vehicles) has really gone down, pointing to growing shortages of these in the Ukrainian military. Same goes for artillery, where losses are now one third of their peak during quite intense fighting. Even the human casualties are remaining under 10,000 a week during intense fighting, somewhat confirming the stories of significant Ukrainian troop shortages at the front. Perhaps the Ukrainians are on their last legs, with all of the Biden supply packages now exhausted and no new ones on the way.

Ukrainian losses for the week June 14th to June 20th, as reported by the Russian defence ministry:

- Kursk & Kharkov fronts: 1,250 troops, 22 LAV/HMV, 25 motor vehicles, 24 artillery pieces, 2 EW systems.

- Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 1,480 troops, 1 tank, 7 LAV/HMV, 58 motor vehicles, 4 artillery pieces, 12 EW and CB systems.

- Yug Group (Donetsk north): 1,390 troops, 1 tank, 3 APC, 7 LAV/HMV, 16 motor vehicles, 12 artillery pieces, 7 EW and Counter-Battery systems.

- Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 3,410 troops, 7 APC, 36 LAV/ HMV, 34 motor vehicles, 13 artillery pieces.

- Vostok Group (southern front): 1,350 troops, 1 tank, 12 LAV/HMV, 54 motor vehicles, 15 artillery piece, 6 EW ad CB systems.

- Dnepr Group: 470 troops, 1 LAV/HMV, 54 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces, 15 EW and CB systems.

In total: 9,350 troops - under 10,000 (40,517 per month, with undercounting probably around 45,000).

3 tanks (0 in Kursk/Kharkov), 0 IFV, 10 APC, 85 HMV/Light Armoured Vehicle (22 in Kursk/Khakrov). Another 10 of the death-trap aged APCs. Notably less tanks, no IFVs and even quite a few less HMV/LAVs. Could the Ukrainian forces be running short of even light armoured vehicles? Even a third less motor vehicles at 241.

Only 71 artillery pieces (24 in Kursk/Kharkov), plus also 0 MLRS. Down to a rate of 308/mth; 1/3rd of the peak loss rate. Looks like Ukrainian artillery may have been depleted to a relatively low level, the Russian advantage here will have been multiplied.

Plus 42 EW and Counter Battery systems, the Russians are having a lot of success wiping out the Ukrainian EW and CB capabilities.

The shortage of armoured vehicles, even light armoured vehicles seems to have been intensified. Along with a lack of artillery. A casualty rate of only 9,350 during intense fighting may also conform the reports of a lack of Ukrainian troops.

Posted by: Roger Boyd | Jun 20 2025 19:01 utc | 49

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/06/u ... l#comments

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JUST BEGINNING

Injured and humiliated, former soldiers of the Ukrainian armed forces have started protests in Kiev...

"We volunteered to repay our debt to our country, they didn't buy us off the street... Today we only ask ourselves one thing... Where have our rights gone?"

During that time, the police are on "combat alert"...

The veterans have given the authorities an ultimatum until a certain date...

Comment:
Having been deceived and indoctrinated, I feel sorry for them both as soldiers and as someone's relatives... This cannon fodder and ordinary numbers for their overdue president and his Independence...
I remember the movie The Last of the Mohicans... Sean Penn should get the main role in the movie The Last Ukrainian...

http://t.me/istocni_front
t.me/istocni_front
/65454

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Nazi symbols prevalent in Ukrainian military – Le Monde

The French outlet has identified hundreds of soldiers in Kiev’s 3rd Assault Brigade who publicly display neo-Nazi emblems

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FILE PHOTO: Azov battalion. © Gaelle Girbes / Getty Images

Ukrainian soldiers continue to publicly display neo-Nazi symbols – including swastikas, SS tattoos, and Nazi salutes – according to an investigation by French outlet Le Monde.

In its report, published on Wednesday, Le Monde identified nearly 350 Ukrainian troops posting neo-Nazi imagery online, including Nazi salutes, swastika tattoos, Black Sun emblems, and Totenkopf insignias. According to the research, at least 200 of those identified serve in Kiev’s 3rd Assault Brigade.

Russia has repeatedly accused Kiev of fostering neo-Nazi ideology and glorifying WW2-era Hitler collaborators and has demanded the “denazification” of Ukraine as part of a negotiated peace agreement.

Formed in 2023, the 3rd Assault Brigade is a direct successor of the Azov Regiment – originally created in 2014 by far-right figure, Andrei Biletsky. Azov has been accused by multiple human rights groups, as well as the UN, of war crimes and torture and has been widely criticized for its use of symbols tied to the Waffen-SS.

According to Le Monde, the 3rd Assault Brigade has received military training from several NATO countries, including France, Spain, Germany, the UK and Canada, who have also poured in billions in military support to Ukraine. The paper noted that some soldiers sent to France in 2023 bore visible SS tattoos. When questioned, the French Ministry of the Armed Forces stated that it was the responsibility of Ukraine to vet the personnel.

Europeans once again rallying under Nazi flag against Russia – LavrovREAD MORE: Europeans once again rallying under Nazi flag against Russia – Lavrov
The report also stated that a number of foreign volunteers who have joined Ukraine’s forces, including French nationals, have affiliations with far-right groups. Some were shown posting Nazi tributes and displaying related tattoos online.

Le Monde further stated that the 3rd Assault Brigade, now expanded into a full corps under Biletsky’s command, has been playing an increasingly central role in Ukraine’s military. The outlet reported that its units continue to use Nazi-associated emblems and feature commanders with visible far-right markings.

Moscow has long condemned Kiev’s elevation of Nazi collaborators to national hero status and has accused Western governments of deliberately ignoring continued neo-Nazi activity in Ukrainian ranks.

In April, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stressed that the rebirth of Nazism cannot be allowed and outlined the destruction of the “Kiev neo-Nazi regime” as a necessary outcome of the Ukraine conflict. He insisted that “a real de-Nazification is required” and that the ideology “needs to be rooted out not only in Ukraine, but in all of Europe.”

https://www.rt.com/russia/619862-lemond ... i-symbols/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Jun 23, 2025 1:38 pm

From Donbass decides on Telegram:

Donbass decides
❗️Two people were killed and 26 more were wounded in the DPR over the past week as a result of shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces,

reported the republic's Human Rights Commissioner Darya Morozova.

💥It is also specified that during the entire period of armed aggression from Ukraine in the DPR, 9,707 people were killed, including 247 children, and 15,771 were wounded, including 1,019 children.

***

Donbass decides
In the long-suffering Krasnogorovka, for which heavy fighting took place for many months, peaceful life is being restored – a public transport route will be launched there by July 1.

This order was given by the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin.

✔️Krasnogorovka near Donetsk was liberated by Russian troops in September last year. Recently, mobile communications were restored there and in neighboring villages.

https://t.me/s/donbassr

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

ColonelCassad

📍Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation as of 22 June 2025.

Units of the North group of forces improved the situation along the forward edge, defeated concentrations of manpower and equipment of five mechanized, airborne assault brigades, an airborne assault and four assault regiments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 240 servicemen, three combat armoured vehicles, three cars, and four field artillery guns.

As a result of the active and decisive actions of the units of the West group of forces, the settlement of Petrovskoye in the Kharkiv region was liberated . Formations of two mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated . The enemy lost up to 210 servicemen, a US-made M113 armored personnel carrier, six pickups, four electronic warfare stations and three ammunition depots. Units of the Southern group of forces improved the tactical situation. Defeated the manpower and equipment of four mechanized, motorized infantry, mountain assault, assault, and airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 140 servicemen, an armored combat vehicle, an artillery piece, and five vehicles. Three ammunition depots and a supply depot were destroyed. Units of the Center group of forces occupied more advantageous lines and positions. Defeated formations of eight mechanized, mountain assault, assault, two airborne assault brigades, and an unmanned systems brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The enemy's losses amounted to more than 500 servicemen, two Cossack armored vehicles, three pickups, and four field artillery pieces, including a British-made 155-mm AS-90 self-propelled artillery unit. Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense and, as a result of successful actions, completed the liberation of the settlement of Perebudova in the Donetsk People's Republic . The manpower and equipment of the mechanized brigade and assault regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 195 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, five cars and two artillery pieces. Units of the "Dnepr" group of forces defeated formations of the mechanized brigade and coastal defense brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Up to 70 servicemen, nine cars, four electronic warfare stations, three ammunition depots and two supply depots were destroyed. Air defense systems shot down six JDAM guided aerial bombs and two US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets, as well as 164 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

***

Colonelcassad
The enemy admitted that today the Russian Armed Forces again successfully attacked a concentration of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers at one of the training grounds, where they were conducting a formation and various exercises. The enemy suffered heavy losses in manpower, killed and wounded.
Now they will start looking for those responsible again. The previous attack on the training ground led to the resignation of Drapatiy from the post of commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

It hit a training ground in the Nikolaev region.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Putin’s Clarification Of Russian Policy Towards Ukraine Discredited The West’s Narrative
Andrew Korybko
Jun 22, 2025

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The territorial aspect of the conflict is only the result of “military logic” making this a fait accompli as the conflict dragged on after the Anglo-American Axis sabotaged spring 2022’s peace talks.

The past 1,200+ days since the start of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine have seen the West fearmonger about Putin’s alleged intentions to take over all of that country. They must have therefore been very displeased by him clarifying Russian policy towards Ukraine during his remarks at the plenary session of this year’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. In his words, “we are not seeking capitulation from Ukraine. We insist on recognition of the realities that have developed on the ground.”

This is a reaffirmation of his demand that Ukraine must recognize Russian control over the entirety of the disputed regions and withdraw from those parts that it’s still occupying in order to end the conflict. He also added that Ukraine needs to restore its non-aligned, non-nuclear, and neutral status that it agreed to after independence. About that, Putin reminded everyone that “we have never questioned their right - the right of the Ukrainian people to independence and sovereignty.”

This aligns with his summer 2021 magnum opus “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, which he also referenced with regard to his remark that “I have said many times that I consider the Russian and Ukrainian people to be one people in reality. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours.” Those words, his quip the “old rule” that “where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours”, and him not ruling out “taking Sumy”, however, will likely dominate Western media coverage of his comments.

The context within which he shared those statements, which Western media will predictably omit, reveals that he has no expansionist intentions: “At every stage, we suggested to those with whom we were in contact in Ukraine to stop and said: let’s negotiate now, because this logic of developing purely military actions can lead to your situation getting worse, and then we will have to conduct our negotiations from other positions, from positions that are worse for you. This happened several times.”

Likewise, he told the heads of international news agencies a few days prior that “the logic of the combat operations” led to Russian forces sweeping into the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, but he initially considered restoring some form of Ukrainian sovereignty there in early 2022. That never happened though because Ukraine continued fighting at former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s instigation, which he claimed during the plenary session was actually at the Biden Administration’s behest.

None of the aforesaid context is expected to be included in the Western media’s coverage of his comments since it discredits their fearmongering. Far from wanting to take over all of Ukraine, Putin just wants to remove Western-originating threats to Russia’s security from there, to which end he repeated his demand that Ukraine restore its non-aligned, non-nuclear, and neutral status. The territorial aspect of the conflict is only the result of “military logic” making this a fait accompli as the conflict dragged on.

Russia’s goals, which were dishonestly misportrayed by the West from the get-go, therefore remain the same: Putin essentially aims to return Ukraine to where it was over a third of a century ago when it became independent and hadn’t yet been transformed by the West into what he calls the “anti-Russia”. Going back further than that to when Ukraine was still a Soviet Republic isn’t part of his plans, but “military logic” might lead to more parts of it returning to Russia if a peace deal isn’t soon agreed to.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/putins-c ... ian-policy

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Jun 24, 2025 12:12 pm

Lithium, security and economic interests
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 24, 2025

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The minerals agreement, at the time centered on rare earth reserves that people like Lindsey Graham presented as a huge source of profit, was one of the causes of Volodymr Zelensky's catastrophic meeting at the White House in late February. That day, Zelensky and his team understood that each of their messages must be accompanied by heartfelt thanks to the US president for his support, common sense, and sincere attempt to achieve for Ukraine the just peace through force that Kyiv and its European allies also seek. The negotiation process and, above all, terms that were impossible to fit into legality, managed to modify a purely imperialist agreement, which turned Ukraine into an extractive colony at the service of the United States. Ultimately, without any parliamentary debate and with the representatives of the citizens in the Rada unable to read the final agreement documents, Ukraine and the United States signed an agreement that was seemingly less unbalanced, but in which the logic remains the same.

The wording of the non-secret part of the agreement has moderated its rhetoric and no longer emphasizes the amount the United States falsely claims to have contributed to U.S. defense, nor, above all, does it propose a figure Washington hopes to earn through mineral extraction and the exploitation of other economic sectors. This was one of Ukraine's red lines, as it could not sign an agreement in which it would be declared a debtor and forced to repay a certain amount of money as compensation for military assistance that, it understood, had been provided as a donation and not as a loan. Although the Western press preferred to ignore the issue, one of the reasons why such terminology was unacceptable to Ukraine and why it had to stand up to its main military supplier, even with its main military supplier, is precisely the uncertainty surrounding the quantities that could be extracted in the short and even medium term in Ukraine. The existence of a specific amount that Ukraine would have to contribute to a common fund over which the United States would have control would mean perpetuating a debt that Kiev knows it cannot pay at the cost of handing over its natural resources, if it is realistic to think that these minerals will produce the amount that Donald Trump initially aspired to: $350 billion, or the subsequently reduced $100 billion.

“Experts say the path to mineral extraction is fraught with difficulties. Outdated geological studies could obscure the true value of Ukraine's subsoil; damaged power plants needed to extract the resources need repair; and the ongoing war makes any investment inherently risky,” The New York Times explains this week in an article about the implementation of the agreement, which was ultimately signed not by Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky at a gala dinner, but by Scott Bessent and Yulia Syrydenko in a room with little international expectation. Lindsey Graham's huge smile when, at the Munich Security Forum, he boasted alongside a silent Zelensky about the enormous amounts of resources and money the United States would obtain, now leaves us with doubts about the true potential of Ukraine's soil, whether those rare earths even exist, which only the American senator and the journalists to whom the Ukrainian president showed a Soviet map with their locations seem to know.

The signed agreement, about which virtually nothing is known, as much of what was signed has not been leaked and has been kept strictly secret, even from those who had to vote for its ratification in Parliament, implies, according to kyiv's version, the existence of a reconstruction fund for Ukraine. According to the terms that have been released, kyiv will contribute half of the revenue from new concessions for the extraction of all types of minerals and the exploitation of other resources. This vague terminology can include practically everything from gas transit to port management, and will depend on the United States' voracity and its rush to make profits at any given time. Much more opaque is what the US contribution will be—although it is assumed that it will be the military assistance already provided—or how a portion of this fund will be reinvested in the country's future reconstruction. In any case, it's clear that at least part of the money kyiv puts into that fund will end up in Washington's hands, which will have profited from Ukraine's mineral wealth without having to do anything at all.

While the theory isn't entirely clear, Ukraine needs to put it into practice, first and foremost to demonstrate to Donald Trump, on whom Ukraine continues to depend for intelligence and materiel supplies, that it is serious about sharing its resources. "More than a month after Ukraine signed a historic agreement granting the United States a stake in its mineral reserves, Kyiv is scrambling to show the Trump administration that the deal can deliver quick and tangible results," explains The New York Times , adding that Ukraine has approved "the first steps to allow private investors to exploit a major state-owned lithium deposit, two administration officials said. This project would be the first to receive the green light under the agreement."

Zelensky's hope, and the source of the dispute, was not only to eliminate the definition of Ukraine as a country indebted to the United States, but also to ensure that the supply of minerals would be provided as payment for future security guarantees. In other words, Zelensky was willing to commit to Ukraine paying for US services by handing over part of its mineral extraction revenues, not for what had already been provided, but rather for future supplies. The US response, which no negotiations have managed to change, was that the main shield Washington could offer was its economic presence.

If the agreement doesn't include military security guarantees, Ukraine must find a way to ensure the US economic presence is so significant that the United States will have to protect its investments and, consequently, the country. "The government has agreed to begin drafting recommendations for opening bidding to companies to exploit the Dobra lithium deposit in central Ukraine, according to the two officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. It is one of Ukraine's largest deposits of lithium, a mineral essential for making electric batteries," The New York Times reports , later naming the apparent frontrunner to win the contract. “Potential bidders include a consortium of investors that includes TechMet, an energy investment firm partly owned by the US government, and Ronald S. Lauder, a billionaire friend of President Trump. The group has long expressed interest in the Dobra lithium deposit and urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to open bids by the end of 2023,” the article explains. What better option than someone directly linked to Donald Trump?

However, Dobra is not Ukraine's most important lithium deposit. "The Russians have entered Shevchenko, in the far west of the Donetsk region. This is the geolocation of one of Ukraine's largest lithium deposits, which was supposedly covered by the Trump minerals deal. However, the Trump administration made it very clear that the agreement is not intended to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. It is unclear why Ukraine signed it," wrote Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin yesterday, echoing the changes noted by the Ukrainian source DeepState , attached to the Ministry of Defense, which confirmed the Russian advance. Mineral extraction not only collides with the inherent limitations of nature—in the form of the existence or nonexistence of those announced reserves, the viability of extraction, and the need for investment to create the conditions that allow for the start of exploration work—but also with war. Some of the resources with which Ukraine hopes to maintain the political interests of the US government and the economic interests of its companies are located in Russian-controlled territory or in areas close to the front lines. Some important resources are located close enough to the battle line to make it possible for them to be captured by Russian troops before a ceasefire leading to negotiations is reached.

War is a problem for the implementation of Ukraine's mineral and resource extraction agreement, but it could also be a solution if Ukraine manages to bend the terms of the secret agreement enough to include its most booming sector in it. Presenting Ukraine's pressing need for more war funding as a major investment opportunity, Svyrydenko is now trying to include Ukraine's "thriving military industry" in the dynamics of the minerals deal. "The country has numerous factories producing drones, shells, and artillery guns at a fraction of American and European costs, but lacks the capital to expand their production," admits The New York Times . "This is about making the fund more attractive to the United States," she said. "Where do you invest money to make a profit in Ukraine today? In defense," the article adds, quoting the deputy prime minister. Minerals can provide benefits in the medium or long term, but war reaps them in the moment.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/24/litio ... conomicos/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

FSB officers detained three Russians in the Zaporizhia region on suspicion of attempted sabotage.

While attempting to blow up a gas distribution network facility in Berdyansk, the individuals were caught red-handed. A homemade explosive device and components for its manufacture were found at the crime scene and at the perpetrators' residential addresses.

The Investigative Department of the FSB has opened a criminal case against the detainees under Part 3 of Article 30, Part 2 of Article 281 (attempted sabotage), Part 3 of Article 222.1 (illegal trafficking in explosives or explosive devices by a group of persons by prior conspiracy) of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defence on the progress of the special military operation as of 24 June 2025

– Units of the North force group improved their position along the forward edge. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the mechanized and airborne assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Yastrebyne, Andreyevka and Sadky in the Sumy region. In the Kharkiv direction, units of the mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and four territorial defence brigades were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Okop, Udy, Okhrimovka, Zelenoye and Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. The enemy’s losses amounted to 235 servicemen, two combat armoured vehicles, six cars and seven field artillery pieces, including a US-made 155-mm M777 howitzer. Two ammunition depots were destroyed.

– Units of the West force group took up more advantageous lines and positions. Defeated formations of two mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a territorial defense brigade and a national guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Shiykovka, Novosergeevka, Sobolevka, Novaya Kruglyakovka, Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, Karpovka and Zelenaya Dolina of the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy lost over 220 servicemen, a US-made HMMWV combat armored vehicle, 11 vehicles and an artillery piece. Three electronic warfare stations and three ammunition depots were destroyed.

- Units of the "Southern" group of troops, as a result of active and decisive actions, liberated the settlement of Dyleevka in the Donetsk People's Republic. Defeated the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, airmobile brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Shcherbinovka, Serebryanka, Predtechino, Belaya Gora, Vyemka, Petrovka, Seversk, Vasyukovka, Tikhonovka, Zarya and Chasov Yar of the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy's losses amounted to more than 190 servicemen, an M113 armored personnel carrier made in the USA, four vehicles and an electronic warfare station.

- Units of the "Center" group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses. Defeated the formations of four mechanized, airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade and two national guard brigades in the areas of the settlements of Udachnoye, Alekseyevka, Dimitrov, Muravka, Petrovskogo, Krasnoarmeysk, Novosergeyevka, Dachnoye and Zeleny Kut of the Donetsk People's Republic. The Ukrainian armed forces lost up to 230 servicemen, six armored combat vehicles, including an HMMWV armored car, a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, and a US-made M113 armored personnel carrier. Eight pickup trucks and three field artillery pieces were destroyed.

– Units of the "East" force grouping took up more advantageous lines and positions. They defeated the manpower and equipment of the mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Yalta, Zaporizhia, Fedorovka, Shevchenko of the Donetsk People's Republic, Maliyevka of the Dnipropetrovsk region and Hulyaipole of the Zaporizhia region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 190 servicemen, a tank, two combat armored vehicles, two cars, three artillery pieces and an electronic warfare station.

– Units of the "Dnipro" force grouping defeated formations of a mechanized brigade, two coastal defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Malye Shcherbaky of the Zaporizhia region, Lvovo, Antonovka, Kizomys, Novaya Kakhovka, Dneprovskoye of the Kherson region and the city of Kherson. Up to 60 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ten vehicles, five electronic warfare stations and two ammunition depots were destroyed.

– Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation damaged a port infrastructure facility of Ukraine, assembly shops and warehouses of unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as temporary deployment points of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries in 142 districts.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Completion of the liberation of the LPR
June 24, 13:27

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The Russian Armed Forces liberated Grekovka on the western borders of the LPR today. Thus, the last settlement of the LPR that was still under Ukrainian occupation was liberated. The LPR was already 100% liberated in 2022, but after the defeat near Balakaliya, they lost a small piece of territory again. Now they have returned it. This time for good.

Of course, several plantings near the border of the LPR with the Kharkov region still need to be cleaned up, but these are already formalities.
Grekovka itself will return the name Petrovskoye.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9917475.html

Instead of a concert in Yalta, he was flown to an apartment in Kyiv
June 23, 23:11

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The character who announced a concert in Yalta last year had his apartment hit at night. Now he's publicly whining, "How is that possible? What a horror." He still can't see the connection between the Nazi regime in Kiev and what's happening in Ukraine.

The air defense titans, following the results of the Russian Armed Forces' night strikes, once again stated that they shot down almost everything, although in fact there were dozens of "Geraniya" flights in 8 regions of Ukraine.

P.S. By the way, the Russian Armed Forces are currently storming Yalta on the borders of the DPR. I hope that after liberation, the fighters will drink some coffee there. And they'll ask, "Where's Podolyak and that Taras?!"

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9916781.html

Google Translator

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NSC advisors urged ‘ISIS’-style drone attacks on Russian rail, leaked files show
Kit Klarenberg·June 23, 2025

Leaked war plans sent to the US NSC instructed Kiev to carry out “ISIS”-style drone attacks on Russian trains and rail bridges, foreshadowing a series of deadly Ukrainian attacks this May and June.
A coterie of British and American academics advising the US National Security Council explicitly urged Ukraine adopt the tactics of ISIS in a detailed proposal for “anti-rail drone operations,” according to leaked documents reviewed by The Grayzone.

The aggressive war plans recommended in the files eerily foreshadowed Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web, which consisted of a series of brazen drone attacks waged inside Russia between May 24 and June 1 – the eve of scheduled negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. A pair of Ukrainian bombings of Russian trains in Bryansk on May 31 and Kursk and the following day left seven dead, and injured more than 30 people, including two children.

The attacks on Russian rail infrastructure have continued since the launch of Operation Spiderweb, suggesting the British-born strategy has heavily influenced the thinking of Kiev’s increasingly desperate military.

The leaked plans reviewed by The Grayzone explore the use of “inexpensive drones” as “a low-cost means for disrupting Russian logistics,” but also include blueprints for terror attacks composed by three “drone experts” before being passed to the Biden administration’s then-Director for Russia at the National Council, Col. Tim Wright.

Those experts belonged to a secret academic-intelligence cell called Project Alchemy, whose existence was first exposed by The Grayzone, and which was founded with a mission to “to keep Ukraine fighting” by imposing “strategic dilemmas, costs and frictions upon Russia.”

As previously reported here, Project Alchemy researchers called “to take a page from ISIS’ playbook,” presenting the jihadist group’s psychological operations as a model for Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians. The Grayzone can now reveal that Alchemy’s team also urged US war planners to look to the Islamic State for inspiration in using commercial drones for attacks on Russian civilian targets.

One academic advising the Alchemy cell, Zachary Kallenborn of George Mason University, recommended Ukraine carry out “two-stage attacks like ISIS did frequently” on Russian-held railways, suggesting that Kiev first “break the track, and wait for the engineers to come to fix it, then use the drone to kill them.” In other words: double tap kamikaze drone strikes.

“Drones also could provide ISR [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] in finding and tracking trains to support larger actions,” with satellite imagery exploited for targeting purposes, Kallenborn added.

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An unnamed Durham University researcher consulted by the NSC declared that “ISIS showed in their battles against the Iraqi military” that drones could be “modified via a simple drop mechanism… to serve as effective munitions delivery platforms.” The conversion of everyday commercial drones into munitions-bearing killing machines would prove one of the most deadly tactics of the war for both sides.

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The origin of Kiev’s ‘drone swarm’ offensives?
During a meeting between military historians from Kansas State University and faculty from the Command and General Staff School at Ft. Leavenworth, academic war planners discussed “the idea of using inexpensive drones to prevent Russia from using captured Ukrainian railroads to resupply their combat units.” The academics then delivered the proposal to “three drone experts in the Ukraine Working Group who each provided their analysis for how to achieve this.”

A separate leaked document describes the Working Group as a vast collection of “strategic studies, military technology and Eastern Europe regional studies experts” who “came together to analyze the Russian invasion of Ukraine and to think deeply about policy options” which could “assist Ukraine’s defense (short of deploying combat forces).” The Working Group was composed of “approximately 60 experts hailing from states throughout NATO.”

The operations file begins by noting that, “when operating in its own territory,” the Russian army “relies on its well-developed rail system which is integrated with Ukraine’s domestic rail network.” As Russian forces moved deeper into Ukraine, the Working Group forecasted that they would “increasingly need to rely on Ukraine’s rail system or face logistic-induced paralysis as their lines of supply lengthen and their road-based logistical become increasingly inefficient.”

“The question should therefore be posed as to whether inexpensive drones can be used to hinder Russian efforts to use those portions of Ukraine’s railway network they have captured,” the document stated. An academic using the initials “M.E.D.” who hailed from Britain’s prestigious Durham University declared, “if Ukrainian forces could sustain attacks on occupied railroads, they could hamper Russian forces’ ability to operate deeper inside of Ukraine.”

While believing it “unlikely that drone attacks, even kamikaze attacks, could bring down bridges” – although this “would be ideal” – they suggested “commercial drones could be modified with a sufficient explosive to inflict meaningful damage of railroads, it would greatly complicate Russian efforts.” After all, “even a small amount of damage would force rail traffic to stop until repairs could be made to the line.”

These attacks “could be carried out away from major stations likely to have active air defenses,” and “augment attacks by stay-behind guerrilla forces.” M.E.D. cited a July 2018 paper on Islamic State’s “innovative” use of drones published by the West Point military academy’s “combating terrorism center” as a reference point for such tactics. It discussed “creative ways” ISIS had deployed “simple, low-cost, and replaceable devices” to devastating effect against its adversaries, which could be replicated by the US and its allies.

M.E.D. postulated that “if larger drones could be procured, of if light commercial aircraft could be modified to fly as drones, they might be able to damage rail bridges enough to force substantive repairs, which would greatly slow rail traffic” – a proposal which closely resembles the June 1 attacks on rail bridges in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions. “Another possibility” was “to use a number of commercial drones in a swarm attack” comparable to Ansar Allah’s September 2019 strikes on Aramco sites in Saudi Arabia, “wherein a number of thermite munitions are used to weaken steel or concrete infrastructure.”

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“Even if the rail bridges are not destroyed outright weakening key areas – perhaps through the use of suicide drones striking them directly after triggering their payload – would necessitate close inspection and hinder the ability to use the bridges safely,” M.E.D. concluded. Throughout the proxy war, Ukraine has regularly deployed drone swarms against Russian targets, in some cases inflicting significant damage.

“Track switches would probably be good targets too”
Another “drone expert” consulted by the St. Andrews cabal was Dominika Kunertove, formerly of Swiss university ETH Zurich’s Center for Security Studies. Kunertove currently serves as director of “a research project on future drone warfare and technology” at the Atlantic Council, the semi-official, arms-industry funded think tank of NATO in Washington DC.

Kunertove suggested using drones to strike “anything that uses” railroads, rather than railways themselves, as this would mean “neither side would be able to use railroads for some time (in case [Ukraine] recaptures…territory previously held by Russians.” This June, Kiev destroyed a military supply train carrying heavy armor, including tanks and artillery systems in an effort dubbed Operation Spiderweb 2.0.

Meanwhile, Zachary Kallenborn, a self-described “war doctor in training” from George Mason University’s Schar School, noted the “limited payloads” offered by commercial drones, with “only a few pounds” of explosive able to be attached to them, meant “the best bet would be to hit sensitive, difficult to repair targets to maximize harm.” While admitting to “not know too much about rail infrastructure,” he suggested “switching yards, engine houses, or the equipment to load and unload trains” as prospective targets.

“Track switches would probably be good targets too,” Kallenborn said, as “a hit would disrupt multiple lines and…would be tougher to repair.” He went on to advocate “[thinking] about how drones can support broader anti-rail operations.” While “slowing” operations intended were “definitely good,” Kallenborn believed it would be “be more useful to use drones” to target “supply trains themselves,” echoing Dominika Kunertove’s suggestions.

Kallenborn specifically highlighted five commercial drone models which could be outfitted with explosives and sent to disrupt rail operations, including the $2,200 DJI Mavic III, which Ukrainian forces used in their attack on a Russian fuel train this May 24.

“All of these would need to be modified to allow carrying and dropping of any munitions, which will increase the cost,” Kallenborn wrote. But “depending on model, there may be secondary suppliers who can help with that,” he noted.

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Still, Kallenborn appeared to express some cynicism about the utility of drones. He urged the National Security Council to “consider the opportunity cost of drones vs other approaches.” He speculated there were “probably a lot of tracks… in relatively isolated areas where planting explosives by hand might be plausible and might be better timed to fix a train.”

That task that could be handily carried out by secret Operation Gladio-style “stay-behind guerrilla forces” which other British academics proposed standing up as part of a proposal to strike “sensitive, difficult to repair targets to maximize harm” in Russian territory.

In the face of constant Russian battlefield gains and a looming reduction in Washington’s military aid to Ukraine, the British government remains committed to spending vast sums on ensuring Kiev has a vast supply of drones at its disposal at all times.

As Ukraine places drone attacks on Russian infrastructure at the heart of its increasingly desperate strategy, Project Alchemy’s ISIS-inspired plans are more relevant than ever.

https://thegrayzone.com/2025/06/23/nsc- ... e-attacks/

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Brief Frontline Report – June 22, 2025

Russian Armed Forces Expand the Flanks of the Previously Driven Wedge. Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 23, 2025
Donetsk

From the summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense: Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance into the depths of the enemy's defense and, as a result of successful actions, completed the liberation of the settlement of Perebudova of the Donetsk People's Republic.

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary. Граница областей=Oblast Border*.

Following the logic of the proposed scenario outlined in our June 21, 2025 report, today brought news: fighters of the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade have liberated the settlement of Perebudova (Perestroika).

This is a small village (approximately 160 residents), located on the left bank of the Mokrye Yaly River and bordering the village of Komar. The "Fighting Buryats" of the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade crossed the river, repelled the enemy, and secured a bridgehead on the opposite bank.

We anticipate an expansion of this bridgehead toward the settlement of Mirnoye (K. Marksa) and increased pressure on the left flank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defensive line on the Fyodorovka (Fedorovka)-Veseloye front.

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact

Simultaneously, units of the "East" group continue to breach the well-fortified defensive stronghold of Shevchenko-Malievka-Voskresenka. Russian army assault groups are advancing into Shevchenko from the north and southwest.

Kupyansk Direction

From the Russian Defense Ministry's Report: "As a result of the decisive actions of the "West" Group, the settlement of Petrovskoe in the Kharkov Oblast has been liberated."

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ЛБС 20.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 20th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

We would like to correct the esteemed Russian Defense Ministry—Petrovskoe is part of the Luhansk People's Republic.

The village of Petrovskoe (renamed Grekovka in 2016) is a small settlement. According to the 2001 census, it had around 50 residents, but by 2024, only one person remained.

The flanks of the previously driven wedge of Novoe-Lipovoye-Redkodub are being expanded.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ne-22-2025

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Sylvia Demarest: US Militarism and Military Keynesianism – Part I of II
June 23, 2025
By Sylvia Demarest, Substack, 6/4/25

Sylvia Demarest is a retired trial lawyer.

Recent events crystalize the growing risk of a global war, World War 3 (WW3). Some believe WW3 has already started, and point to the many smaller skirmishes that preceded formal declarations of war in World War’s 1 and 2. If so, WW3 has been going on for a very long time, perhaps back to the first Gulf War in 1990-91 that ended the “Vietnam Syndrome,” or to the NATO bombing of Serbia (then part of Yugoslavia) in 1999) reflecting US intention to contain Russia. The previous world wars were horribly destructive, but weapons technology has become even more dangerous since WW2. Given the destructive power of modern weapons, the thought of fighting a global war is clinically insane; the risk to civilization is much too great, yet current western leadership is actively discussing just such a war.

World War 2 and the adoption of military Keynesianism is credited with ending the Great Depression and providing the economic stimulus for several decades of economic growth after WW2. Militarism and military Keynesianism is a powerful economic and political force in the US. The policy of militarism and war is supported by both political parties and has persisted, election after election, for decades– yes, it’s always the same boss!

This essay will also explore a few examples of past US militarism and military Keynesianism; the next essay will look at how human biases, censorship, and propaganda contribute to this endless cycle of war.

Military Keynesianism

Before World War 2 the United States always demilitarized at the end of every war, including World War 1. The issues surrounding the return and demobilization of 2 million troops from Europe after World War 1 created huge issues, including economic dislocations. Many veterans faced issues with unemployment and readjusting to economic life. The difficulties faced in adjusting from a wartime to a peacetime economy “would have lasting implications for U.S. military policy and society in the decades ahead.”

The first public reference to “military Keynesianism” was on January 5, 1938, in a column in the New Republic by John T. Flynn. Flynn was convinced that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt was plotting to involve the US in a foreign war to stimulate the US economy. Flynn, a well-known progressive journalist at the time, observed that in 1937 a new downturn in the US economy had sent unemployment soaring to the same level as the beginning of the Great Depression. Flynn stated that a top Roosevelt advisor had advocated a large dose of military spending i.e. “military Keynesianism”, and a major foreign war as the way to cure the nation’s economic problems.

The Great Depression had witnessed the collapse of the money supply when thousands of banks failed, companies closed, unemployment soared, and prices fell. When WW2 ended, the return of deflation was feared when the nation demobilized. There were over 12 million Americans in the armed services and many of these men wanted “to be home by Christmas”. The issue was resolved by a combination of social legislation to support and ease the transition to civilian life along with a commitment to continued militarism.

World War 2 finally ended the Great Depression. Economic relief began as orders from Europe and Asia provided an economic lift. After the US entered the war, military spending exploded, rising 600 percent from June 1940 to 1941, reaching 42 percent of GDP by 1943–44. Even though fifteen million workers entered the military, the economy expanded at its highest rate ever: real GDP jumped 54 percent from 1939 to 1944, and unemployment reached a historical low of 1.2 percent.

The US continued to benefit economically after the war ended. WW2 had devastated the economies and productive capacity of Europe and Japan, leaving US productive capacity unscathed. After years of economic rationing, Americans were ready to spend their money and US factories shifted from war to peacetime production providing employment to returning veterans. The US experienced several decades of exceptional economic growth, along with huge gains in employment and wages. War and military Keynesianism had been characterized by both “guns and butter,” along with at least twenty major technological innovations the war produced that were quickly applied to civilian life. Rather than being a “burden,” the establishment of military Keynesianism in this unique historical context—witnessed a large military budget that produced capital formation, employment, and technological dynamism. This is why many politicians today still see war as a “fix” for economic problems. In a world encumbered by slow economic growth and high debt levels the idea that war is a solution to political and economic problems is adding to the impetus for a new global war.

The huge economic surge that followed the end of WW2 permanently changed the US. The US became a consumer society as ordinary people were molded into consumers with an unquenchable thirst for more stuff. This was the perfect environment for the neoliberal ideology, discussed in previous essays, to become dominant, and to consume politics and economics.

Military Keynesianism has been used as an economic stimulus and a jobs program ever since. The production of weapons and equipment is one of the largest remaining manufacturing industries in the US. Congress has been careful to locate bases and production facilities in each district, spreading the funding and the jobs around the country. US militarism is an economic stimulus program, a jobs program, and a source of lobbying and campaign cash. This means that militarism, and the wars that support it, has enormous economic and political power in the USA, even though maintaining it requires perpetual war.

For military Keynesianism to work its economic and political magic, the United States needs to use up the military equipment it produces so the arms manufacturers can keep busy. This is why the US is the world’s largest seller of weapons, and why every US president is an arms dealer. Even with these arms sales, military Keynesianism requires the US to fight a war every two, or three years, or to be continuously at war.

A few examples of militarism in action

1–The Korean War–1950-53–The Korean war began in June of 1950 and lasted until July of 1953. It was fought between North Korea, supported by China and the Soviet Union, and South Korea backed by UN forces and the United States. On June 25th 75,000 North Korean soldiers crossed the 38th parallel. The country had been divided at that level in August of 1945 by two young aides at the US State Department. Rather than seeing this as a war between two unstable dictatorships, Syngman Rhee (south) and Kim Il Sung (north), the US feared it was a first step in a Communist campaign to take over the world. The fighting went back and forth, with a huge loss of life, until a stalemate was reached and the fighting was ended at the same place with the addition of a demilitarized zone.

What most Americans do not know is that the US bombed and napalmed cities and towns all across North Korea. US bombers faced little opposition as North Korea lacked air defenses. During the campaign, conventional weapons such as explosives, incendiary bombs, and napalm destroyed nearly all of the country’s cities and towns, including an estimated 85% of its buildings. The U.S. dropped 635,000 tons of bombs, including 32,557 tons of napalm, during the war on both North and South Korea. In May 1951, an international fact finding team from East Germany, West Germany, China, and the Netherlands stated, “The members, in the whole course of their journey, did not see one town that had not been destroyed, and there were very few undamaged villages. It is estimated that 20% of the population of North Korea perished. The American people may not have realized it, but major war crimes were committed by the US air force in North Korea. The North Korean people have not forgotten. The Kim family is still in power and have used these war crimes to remain in power.

2–The Vietnam War–1954-1975– This war represents perhaps an even greater tragedy than does the Korean War because it impacted not only Vietnam but all the surrounding countries. It began with an independence movement against the French and ended with the defeat of the US military. This war also impacted the US through the creation of a large anti-war movement that objected to the draft and the brutality of this war, adding to the pressure to end the war. There are dozens of books written about this war so this comment will be brief. The Vietnamese were fighting for independence and sovereignty, but their struggle got caught up in the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union.

The human costs of the long conflict were harsh for all involved. Not until 1995 did Vietnam release its official estimate of war dead: as many as 2 million civilians on both sides and some 1.1 million North Vietnamese and Viet Cong fighters. The U.S. military has estimated that between 200,000 and 250,000 South Vietnamese soldiers died in the war. In 1982 the Vietnam Veterans Memorial was dedicated in Washington, D.C., inscribed with the names of 57,939 members of U.S. armed forces who had died or were missing as a result of the war. Over the following years, additions to the list have brought the total past 58,200. (At least 100 names on the memorial are those of servicemen who were Canadian citizens.) Among other countries that fought for South Vietnam on a smaller scale, South Korea suffered more than 4,000 dead, Thailand about 350, Australia more than 500, and New Zealand some three dozen.

The public reaction to the war resulted in the Vietnam Syndrome. The Vietnam Syndrome is a term used to describe the growing public aversion to US military involvement abroad that arose from controversies that surrounded the Vietnam war. It reflected the public’s reaction to the negative experiences and outcome of the war and reflected public opposition to US involvement in military actions without clear objectives.

3–The Church Committee 1975–The Church Committee was a committee of the US Senate established in 1975 to investigate abuses by the intelligence agencies such as the CIA, FBI, and NSA. The committee uncovered serious misconduct including illegal surveillance of American citizens and plots abroad involving regime change operations, coups, and assassinations. The Committee’s publications can be found here. In total, the Committee published 14 reports in 1975 and 1976 that contain a wealth of information on abuses by US intelligence agencies. This included U.S. involvement in attempts to assassinate foreign leaders, particularly Patrice Lumumba of the Congo, Cuba’s Fidel Castro, Rafael Trujillo of the Dominican Republic, the Diem brothers of Vietnam, and General Rene Schneider of Chile. It also contains findings on the development of a general “Executive Action” capability by the CIA i.e. an in house assassination team.

The Committees findings came from the acquisition of what was called “the family jewels”. The reports that constitute the CIA’s “Family Jewels” were commissioned in 1973 by then CIA director James R. Schlesinger in response to press accounts of CIA involvement in the Watergate scandal—in particular, support to the burglars, E. Howard Hunt and James McCord, both CIA veterans. On May 7, 1973, Schlesinger signed a directive commanding senior officers to compile a report of current or past CIA actions that may have fallen outside the agency’s charter. The resulting report, which was in the form of a 693-page loose-leaf book of memos, was passed on to William Colby when he succeeded Schlesinger as Director of Central Intelligence in late 1973. That binder was acquired by the Church Committee. Most of the documents were released on June 25, 2007, after more than three decades of secrecy.

The First Gulf War 1990-1991 ends the Vietnam Syndrome

The Vietnam Syndrome lasted, with a few small exceptions, until the first Gulf war. This war was fought to eject Iraq from Kuwait. It was also conducted in a way to end the public’s reluctance to support foreign wars i.e. the “Vietnam Syndrome.” This was accomplished by turning the war into a TV spectacle with video game type videos showing US precision laser guided weapons going into chimneys to blow up buildings. A huge invasion force was organized by the US, Iraq was ejected, and militarism and foreign wars were suddenly back in vogue.

The war ended on the highway of death, when the retreating Iraqi forces were attacked and destroyed.
Image

But it took 911 and the announcement of the “war on terror” to regenerate the current cycle of war and the endless series of ongoing wars in the Middle East and East Asia. These wars include the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, the overthrow of Qaddafi in Libya, the successful covert war against Bashir al Assad in Syria, the drone war in many countries, the constant bombing of Yemen, the ongoing US support for the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, and the ethnic cleansing of the West Bank, the threats of war against Iran, and the US proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. US militarism is as active as ever.

Conclusion

Whether the blame falls on military Keynesianism, the Cold War, or the push for global hegemony, the US has been constantly at war since the end of WW2. Even though these wars were fought against countries that lacked modern military capacity, including reconnaissance, and air defenses, the US still did not “win” any of these wars, including the wars fought during the “War on Terror.”

The US is no longer the sole military power globally–both Russia and China should be seen as peer competitors. Today, the US is involved in a proxy war with Russia and threatens a “pivot to Asia” to confront China. Both Russia and China have military capabilities that are at least equivalent to the US. Even Iran has highly capable air and missile defenses.

Modern war requires the industrial capacity to rapidly produce the needed weapons, along with the ability to supply armies fighting thousands of miles away. The US no longer has the capacity to fight a long foreign war. Moreover, both Russia and China can bring the war to the US homeland. Yet these factors are ignored, and US militarism persists. One reason? The US is economically dependent on militarism.

The US military budget is set to grow by $150 billion to over $1 trillion under the Trump budget proposal. The US is preparing for more war.

The next essay will discuss the human biases along with the use of censorship and propaganda to create support for these wars.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/06/syl ... t-i-of-ii/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Jun 25, 2025 9:50 am

From the "12-day war" to the NATO summit
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 25, 2025

Image

Yesterday, the Netherlands, the host country of the NATO summit these days, announced a new military package for Ukraine worth €175 million. This next delivery includes radars to identify drones, currently one of the main weapons in Ukraine's war, which is increasingly deployed in the rearguard by air forces. However, despite the importance for kyiv of having the necessary equipment to combat Russian unmanned aircraft, which are becoming much more effective due to the shortage of air defense systems, this assistance is limited and bears no resemblance to the large multi-billion-dollar packages that were typically announced in the days leading up to major international summits. Under other circumstances, yesterday would have been used to analyze the state of the war in Ukraine, one of the summit's three priorities—in addition to increasing military spending and investment in the defense industry—and the Russian threat to Europe, a rhetoric Zelensky tried to repeat in his remarks prior to the start of a summit in which he will also lack the prominence he had become accustomed to in previous years.

Zelensky's narrative continues to work perfectly with the European Union, but not so much within NATO, which is trying to lower the profile of its relationship with Ukraine so as not to alienate Donald Trump. The American president remains more interested in the Middle East, although he has not completely lost interest in a war he always considered "stupid" and wants to end. "Do you need help with Iran?" Vladimir Putin asked him in their telephone conversation yesterday, offering Russian mediation 24 hours after meeting personally with Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi. "No, I need help with you," Donald Trump replied, according to his own account, perhaps indicating a renewed drive to initiate a negotiation process that, until now, has been limited to humanitarian issues such as prisoner exchanges and the return of the remains of fallen soldiers. Unlike previous occasions, the conversation between the two presidents went relatively unnoticed amid yesterday's flurry of news, diplomatic, and military activity, which began with the US announcement of a "ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran" and, 24 hours later, certified the end of what Donald Trump has already dubbed "THE TWELVE-DAY WAR."

The wording of the agreement between two parties that had not spoken directly to each other for decades—and who had been communicating for nearly two weeks only through missiles and threatening calls from Israeli intelligence to Iranian generals giving them 12 hours to record their surrender and leave Iran or they and their families would be killed—indicated that there was a degree of fiction in Trump's words. As has been learned from pro-Trump sources, primarily Fox News , the process was limited to an agreement between Washington and Tel Aviv under which Israel would claim that its two objectives had been met—the destruction of its nuclear and missile programs—something that, as evidenced by the fact that there were strikes in Beersheba yesterday, is false. A subsequent call to Iran through a third-party mediator announced the terms to Iran. Tehran, which throughout this nearly two-week odyssey has acted as the most rational actor, reaffirmed with a message from Araghchi the position it had held from the beginning: Iran would stop firing missiles at Israel if Tel Aviv halted its aggression.

According to ABC , the three-way agreement implied that a ceasefire would occur in Iran at a certain time, six hours later in Israel, and after another 12 hours, the final explosion of jubilation would occur. To Trump's surprise, Israel understood that these six-hour margins meant a clear path to bomb Iran without risk of retaliation. "Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and dropped a bomb load, the likes of which I've never seen before, the biggest bomb load we've ever seen," Trump publicly denounced, perhaps annoyed at having already announced the ceasefire and feeling betrayed by an Iranian missile denounced by Israel—and denied by Iran and journalists in Tehran—and used to justify the latest bombing, whose planes Donald Trump ordered to return through a post on his personal social network. "They've been fighting each other for so many years, they don't know what the hell they're doing," a visibly angry Trump declared.

The Israel-Iran war, with the United States participating to do what its Middle Eastern proxy lacked the capacity to do: penetrate the Fordow nuclear facility—with uncertain destruction, since there is no way to verify the damage or certainty about the whereabouts of the 400 kilos of enriched uranium Iran possesses—has been so rapid that it didn't even have time to be included on the NATO summit agenda. Trump and his regional ally, Benjamin Netanyahu, started the war, and the US president ordered its end after an accelerated repetition of what happened in the Iraq war, with an express manipulation of a nonexistent danger, an attack presented as spectacular, and even the " mission accomplished" moment , with the announcement of the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities. The fact that Israel bombed them a day later indicates that the destruction was not as announced by Donald Trump, who is capable of confusing reality with his desires. However, as the day progressed, the ceasefire seemed to consolidate, as did the certainty that a proxy lacks the ability to contradict its provider on critical issues, as Volodymyr Zelensky, whose position is much more precarious than that of the privileged Netanyahu, caught yesterday by surprise by being publicly reprimanded by his ally and friend Donald Trump, also realized.

As was the case a week ago at the G7, Zelensky's ambitions at the current NATO summit have been significantly lowered compared to previous years. Although, as Mark Rutte has expressly insisted, the final communiqué will emphasize the Alliance's unwavering support for Ukraine, there will be no mention this time of "Ukraine's irreversible path to NATO," as has been the case in previous years. The reason is the same as why Zelensky will no longer have the leading role: not to upset Donald Trump. The American leader's position seems clear and is based on an attempt to reach a deal with Russia, of which withdrawing Ukraine's accession to NATO is an essential part. However, the formulation in which Trumpism presents the terms, reiterated very clearly by Keith Kellogg, may not be sufficient for Russia. As the general has indicated on several occasions, there is currently no consensus among the Alliance countries on Ukraine's admission, and the United States is aware that the conditions are not met. This position implies that a new president could reverse this decision, which would, in practice, be a vague promise like those Gorbachev received at the end of the Cold War. Although it seems clear that Russia is aware that it will not achieve all of its objectives in the war, this issue is likely to be the one on which it will be most reluctant to make concessions.

“Consent to a settlement on the part of both Russia and Ukraine remains subtle and ambiguous, open to endless interpretations and vulnerable to populist pressure or accusations of misinterpretation ,” wrote Yulia Mendel, Zelensky’s spokeswoman at the beginning of his term, yesterday. She added that “Putin recently indicated that Russia might demand only the Ukrainian territories under the control of Russian troops, possibly signaling his willingness to renounce claims to the unoccupied parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye (this does not mean it is justified, but it appears to be the agreement). Meanwhile, Zelensky acknowledged today that Ukraine’s NATO membership is not currently possible, marking the first public indication that Kyiv could delay or soften this demand. Both leaders could later claim that their statements were misinterpreted, but these signals cannot be ignored.” It's obvious that Russia knows it won't obtain a single inch of Ukraine diplomatically that it hasn't captured militarily, and Putin's words are merely confirmation that this is the part of his maximum-level proposal that is subject to elimination. However, Ukraine's formulation is the same as the United States': a temporary withdrawal from NATO in anticipation of a time, hopefully not too far off (Zelensky tends to look to the day after Putin's death —perhaps political or physical), when it can join the Alliance.

Although he appears to be easing his political demands, Zelensky has not lowered his economic demands. “I thank all the countries, all the leaders, who have pledged to dedicate a portion of their defense spending to supporting Ukraine. If all European countries dedicate at least 0.25% of their GDP to this—and we are grateful to those countries that dedicate more, such as the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and a commitment as large as Germany's—which is quite reasonable, the chances of peace in Europe will increase,” insisted the Ukrainian president, who appears to be exempting the United States from the aid increase, which has also exempted itself from the requirement to increase military spending to the 5% it demands of the rest.

The demand for long-term military aid under the commitment that every European country contribute to the Ukrainian military effort is based on the idea of ​​shared danger, a threat that Zelensky exaggerates and that includes not only Russia but other obsessions of Western countries. “We all understand that the source of this war and the long-standing threat to the European way of life is Russia. But, in reality, we are not facing Russia alone; we are facing a network of state and non-state actors participating in the arms production process,” Zelensky insisted in The Hague, referring to the People's Republic of Korea, Iran, and “Chinese companies.” According to this logic, Russia would be facing the entire NATO and South Korea, which have not even donated materiel, as Western countries do to Ukraine, but whose contributions have been simple commercial transactions. Zelensky's attempt to link the war in Ukraine with the survival of Western civilization is now limited to Europe alone, especially the European Union, where his rhetoric continues to resonate. "We are integrating our defense industries as if Ukraine were in the EU," Ursula von der Leyen wrote yesterday, adding that "this is good for Ukraine and also for Europe, as Ukraine is now the birthplace of extraordinary innovation." And, echoing Trumpian rhetoric, she concluded that "in the end, strength is the ultimate guarantee of security."

The rhetoric no longer plays so well with the White House, which prefers short-term conflicts like the "12-day war" or the recent confrontation between India and Pakistan, the resolution of which Trump has boasted about, demanding rewards. More than four months of calls, negotiations, inducements, warnings, and threats have yet to yield results, and NATO has opted to lightly hide Zelensky, who will have to settle for a brief meeting with Trump to offer him the purchase of several air defense systems at the expense of the profits the EU has obtained from frozen Russian assets. The Ukrainian president had to fight for an invitation that he finally obtained, although, as Europa Press indicates , "the Ukrainian leader is relegated, as the NATO-Ukraine Council has been downgraded to ministerial level due to the reluctance of the United States. Zelensky's star still shines in the EU, but not so much with Donald Trump, on whom Brussels and London's chances of continuing to supply Kiev with the material and intelligence it needs to keep fighting for as long as necessary depend . "

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/25/de-la ... e-la-otan/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Footage 18+: Evacuation of bodies of Ukrainian occupiers in the Sudzhan border area

The head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine I. Klimenko stated that the remains of Ukrainian servicemen are transferred in a mutilated and rotten state, violating the conditions for storing bodies.

In order to avoid increasing tensions in international relations, as well as in accordance with the requirements of interstate agreements, we kindly ask the Ukrainian occupiers to take embalming kits with them on combat missions.

The use of these preparations will allow the servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to preserve their original appearance before sending them to Ukraine.

We also ask the Ukrainian servicemen not to use underground shelters, which complicate the search for remains. I. Klimenko's statement clearly shows that the presence of even one Ukrainian serviceman in a "fox hole" can negatively affect the bilateral relations between Moscow and Kiev.

At the same time, we understand the concerns of V. Zelensky's team, which is forced to pay compensation even for rotten remains. In the conditions of the world financial crisis, money transferred to relatives for several charred rotten parts of a human body is an unaffordable luxury.

They say that it is a sin to laugh at sick people, which the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs may seem to be. However, in reality, this official is absolutely healthy. The Ukrainian people are sick, who from the once freedom-loving Slavic tribe turned into a gathering of slaves, who are first caught by man-catchers from the TCC, who are mocked by "officers", sending them on another "meat assault" ... The end of the life's journey becomes mockery and mockery of the circumstances of death by officials who seized power in Kiev.

You can talk long and hard about forced mobilization, about the atrocities of the command ... But we will never understand why hundreds of people can not do anything with a couple of man-catchers, why several dozen armed men carry out the criminal orders of one "officer" ... Where did the love of freedom of the inhabitants of Malorossiya go?


If you don't want to experience the fate of Ukrainian widows who are denied compensation by the Kiev regime because their husband's remains have rotted, call someone close to you and explain to him, beg him, convince him, do whatever you want, but he must understand that the only way to save his life is to contact our military personnel IN ADVANCE.

@warriorofnorth

***

Colonelcassad
0:33
One of the last (if not the last) surviving Abrams was dragged to Kiev. And that one was apparently shot down or out of order.

Now the M1A1 is on the territory of the National Defense University of Ukraine in Kiev.

It is known that at least 26 Abrams out of 31 transferred to Ukraine were destroyed.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – June 24, 2025
Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 24, 2025

Russian Ministry of Defense: Units of the "South" Group have liberated the settlement of Dyleevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic through decisive actions.

Image
ЛБС 09.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 9th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

There are two settlements named "Dyleevka" in this area:
- A railway station village (approximately 200 residents)

- The village of Dyleevka, located northeast of the station (approximately 400 residents).

The village of Dyleevka has already been liberated, while the cleanup operation in the railway station village is nearing completion.

The village of Dyleevka is situated in a lowland along the Bakhmutka River. The right flank is threatened by Armed Forces of Ukraine units defending the Kleshcheevka-Kurdyumovka line. Given the current dynamics, our forces controlling this line should now be pressuring them. The most favorable axis of advance is from the settlement of Ozaryanovka.

The left flank of our wedge will face pressure from AFU brigades controlling the Aleksandro-Shultino area. To cover this flank, our troops are actively operating along the Dyleevka village to Aleksandro-Shultino axis.

The enemy will take necessary measures to block our success in this sector. Counterattacks to retake Dyleevka are expected. This village is the AFU’s last defensive line before the fortified area of Aleksandro-Shultino – Belaya Gora, which, anchored on the Naumikha River, shields the city of Konstantinovka from the east.

Additionally, this "wedge" creates an envelopement of the AFU’s right flank and a rear approach to their group defending the Seversky Donetsk-Donbass canal sector along the Kleshcheevka-Kurdyumovka line.

The Russian Armed Forces will expand the "wedge," advancing the right flank toward the heights adjacent to the canal, while the left flank pushes along the railway. This area—stretching approximately 9 km along the Kurdyumovka-railway line (strictly east to west)—must be filled by our second echelon. If successful, the AFU’s highly resilient and well-prepared defenses in this direction, as well as near Chasov Yar, will face significant strain.

Simultaneously (based on indirect reports), preparations are underway for a new phase of pressuring AFU positions further west—on the Novoalenovka-Yablonovka sector.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ne-24-2025

Uriel Araujo: Ukraine-Hungary tensions escalate over spy scandal and minority rights
June 24, 2025
By Uriel Araujo, InfoBrics, 6/4/25

“Ukraine’s expulsion of Hungarian diplomats over a Transcarpathia spy scandal has escalated tensions, with Hungary halting minority rights talks. This rift reflects broader ethnopolitical strains with neighbors like Poland and Romania, which goes to show that the Ukraine’s ultranationalism is a problem well beyond Russian-Ukrainian issues”

Uriel Araujo, Anthropology PhD, is a social scientist specializing in ethnic and religious conflicts, with extensive research on geopolitical dynamics and cultural interactions.

In a region already fraught with geopolitical complexities, the latest rift between Ukraine and Hungary underscores a troubling pattern of ethnic and diplomatic tensions that threatens Kyiv’s broader regional relationships. The recent expulsion of Hungarian diplomats from Ukraine, following the alleged uncovering of a Budapest-run spy network, has escalated an already strained bilateral dynamic.

Hungary’s subsequent decision to suspend talks on minority rights in Transcarpathia—a region with a significant Hungarian minority—marks yet another low in this increasingly fractious relationship. This development in fact reveals deeper ethnopolitical fault lines that extend beyond the well-documented Russian-Ukrainian conflict, thereby complicating Kyiv’s aspirations for regional cooperation and integration into Europe and the political West.

The alleged spy ring, exposed by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reportedly operated in Transcarpathia, gathering intelligence on local defenses and public sentiment toward potential Hungarian military deployment. Ukraine accuses two former military personnel, directed by a Hungarian officer, of espionage activities that could facilitate territorial ambitions—a charge Budapest vehemently denies.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his nationalist rhetoric and pragmatic relations with Moscow, has framed the accusations as a smear campaign, possibly timed to influence Hungary’s domestic politics, with the upcoming elections. This blunt exchange of accusations has only deepened mistrust, with both nations expelling diplomats and accusing each other of acts of espionage in a tit-for-tat escalation.

One may recall that Hungarian-Ukrainian tensions have simmered for years, largely over the treatment of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. Budapest has repeatedly criticized Ukraine’s language and education laws, which discriminate against ethnic Hungarians. Kyiv, in turn, perceives Hungary’s advocacy for its diaspora as a pretext for meddling in Ukraine’s internal affairs, thereby fueling suspicions of irredentist ambitions.

The spy scandal has only amplified these concerns, with Ukrainian officials warning that Hungary’s intelligence activities could signal preparations for territorial claims, as suggested by former Ukrainian politician Spiridon Kilinkarov. I’ve commented before about how such concerns are not unfounded in a region where post-Soviet borders remain contested.

This latest spat is in fact not an isolated incident but part of a broader pattern of ethnopolitical friction that hampers Ukraine’s relations with its neighbors. Beyond Hungary, Kyiv faces challenges with Poland, Romania, and others over minority rights and historical grievances.

For instance, Ukrainian-Polish relations are often strained by historical disputes, notably the Volhynia massacres. In September 2024 tensions flared as Kyiv refused to allow exhumation of victims, while officially glorifying (since the 2014 Maidan Revolution) the Ukrainian Insurgent Army—Nazi collaborators responsible for the genocide of Poles—as national heroes.

Romania in turn has expressed concerns about the treatment of its minority in Bukovina (Ukraine), with ethnic and religious tensions growing. Moreover, Greece too has raised similar issues regarding its ethnic kin and their plight in Mariupol and the Donbass region under the notoriously fascist Azov regiment—as well as other Ukrainian military and paramilitary ultra-nationalist elements.

All these tensions, often overshadowed by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, risk angering potential allies at a time when Kyiv seeks regional support. Ukraine’s aggressive nationalist policies, aimed at consolidating a unified national identity, have alienated neighbors who perceive these measures as chauvinistic and exclusionary

Hungary’s response, led by Orbán’s nationalist government, has been characteristically assertive. Orbán, who has positioned himself as a defender of Hungarian minorities abroad, has arguably used the Transcarpathian issue to bolster his domestic standing, especially ahead of elections. His suspension of minority rights talks with Ukraine is likely a calculated move, signaling defiance while appealing to his own base’s nationalist sentiments. The issue further exposes a fracture within the West over the issue of Ukraine and the European Union.

The espionage allegations, whether fully substantiated or not, highlight a deeper issue: the fragility of trust in a region shaped by historical grievances and competing nationalisms. Ukraine’s accusations against Hungary may serve a dual purpose—deflecting domestic criticism of its minority policies while signaling to other neighbors that Kyiv will not tolerate external interference. However, this hardline stance risks backfiring. By expelling Hungarian diplomats and escalating rhetoric, Ukraine may further strain ties with Budapest.

Moreover, the timing of this scandal raises questions about its political motivations. Orbán’s critics argue that Ukraine’s accusations could be leveraged to discredit him domestically, particularly as Hungary approaches elections where his Fidesz party faces growing opposition.

Be as it may, the broader implications of this rift extend beyond bilateral relations. Ukraine’s ethnopolitical challenges, as mentioned, could embolden other neighbors to assert claims if Kyiv’s central authority weakens. In a region where frozen conflicts and disputed borders are unresolved matters, such tensions could destabilize Eastern Europe further.

Such geopolitical problems reflect domestic ethnopolitical civil rights issues. The hard truth is that Ukraine itself faces a civil rights crisis, with policies marginalizing Russian speakers, ethnic Russiand and pro-Russian people, potentially alienating a significant portion of its population post-war, according to Professor Nicolai N. Petro and many other commentators.

Over 40% of Ukrainians, especially in the east and south, have historically viewed Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” in some ways. Petro further highlights restrictions on religious freedom, press, and minority rights, particularly targeting Russophile Ukrainians. Moreover, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church faces crackdowns, and there are laws increasingly limiting use of the Russian language, in a historically bilingual nation.

Even the Venice Commission itself has criticized Ukraine’s minority laws, yet officials like Olga Stefanishyna deny the very existence of a Russian minority, despite at least 17.3% of the population identifying as ethnic Russians in the 2001 census—which is to date the only census since Ukraine’s 1991 independence, This marginalization, alongside the banning of “pro-Russian parties”, risks internal and regional conflict.

However, the problem goes beyond Russian-Ukrainian ethnopolitics—being inherent to ultranationalism in post-Maidan Ukraine—and with Hungary’s and Poland’s ongoing quandaries, this will become increasingly clear. The West doesn’t seem ready to have this conversation, but it is about time to acknowledge the issue, as it endangers, as I’ve argued before, the survival of Europe itself.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/06/uri ... ty-rights/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Jun 26, 2025 11:41 am

Trump's Day
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 26, 2025

Image

"We're with them to the end. They have very big things to announce today," predicted yesterday morning the absolute protagonist of the day and of the NATO summit in general, Donald Trump, a self-proclaimed man of peace. In the afternoon, he boasted of having resolved in just a few weeks the disputes between India and Pakistan—still with the same dispute that caused the recent spike in violence—Serbia and Kosovo, where nothing has changed, Iran and Israel yesterday, and even Congo and Rwanda, which will visit the White House on Friday to sign a peace agreement that will not be the first reached during the five wars that the Kagame government has waged against its western neighbor. Of this war, which he described as "voracious," Donald Trump stated that it is a "machete war, with severed heads all over Africa." The war is not only contained in the Democratic Republic of Congo but is limited to a portion of the Central African country, which has not been enough to prevent the racist and misinformed comment from the American leader, who also boasted of having resolved some other conflict he failed to recall. Trump has appeared in The Hague to preach to a flock willing to obediently accept his every word, and a leader, Mark Rutte, who has prepared the summit to ensure his comfort, has shortened the time to limit the possibility of an outburst. He has limited the Ukrainian issue to a sentence in the final communiqué, in which he has been given exactly what he asked for.

“Allies agree that this 5% commitment will comprise two essential categories of defense investment. Allies will annually allocate at least 3.5% of GDP, based on the agreed definition of NATO defense spending for 2035, to funding core defense needs and meeting the NATO Capability Objectives. Allies commit to submitting annual plans that show a credible and incremental trajectory to achieve this objective. And Allies will contribute up to 1.5% of GDP annually to, among other things, protect our critical infrastructure, defend our networks, ensure our civil readiness and resilience, unleash innovation, and strengthen our defense industrial base. The trajectory and balance of spending under this plan will be reviewed in 2029, in light of the strategic environment and the Capability Objectives,” states the only relevant of the five points in the agreement.

“We have to arm ourselves because we are behind Russia's weapons level, which is the main threat,” declared Emmanuel Macron, who has already begun using social media as a sales pitch for French military equipment, specifically its aircraft (which did not fare well in their confrontations with Chinese weapons in Pakistan's hands in the first battles in which they participated as part of the Indian air force). The increase in military spending is a sales opportunity for some and a problem for others. “I'm going to talk to Spain, and it's going to pay big,” the great peacemaker stated yesterday, referring to the Spanish Prime Minister's attempt to claim he has reached a parallel agreement that will avoid an increase in military spending, a signed one, but impossible under the current parliamentary conditions.

At a summit where the sole objective was the signing of an agreement that will force several countries to double their military spending, always in the name of security that has not been guaranteed by the $3.1 trillion (3.1 trillion in American terminology) invested by European NATO countries since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Trump's praise was not only for his ability to get the Europeans to do what they had resisted doing for eight years, but also for his peacemaking skills and capacity for dialogue. "I don't think I've ever met a president in our modern history who has sought peace more than he has," said Marco Rubio, referring to Donald Trump's diplomatic abilities.

He did so just three days after dropping the mother of all bombs on Iranian civilian nuclear facilities, a violation of international law and the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The comment came when Donald Trump gave him the floor to answer his question about whether it was necessary to draft a small agreement "for them to sign." Completely normal, the US president—whose communications team insists, without the slightest evidence or possibility of obtaining it, that "Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed and any suggestion to the contrary is fake news"— "—thus demonstrated his style of diplomacy: preparing a document that the other party must sign without having any say. And after, with his tacit consent, his regional proxy blew up the negotiations with an illegal and unprovoked aggression in which, midway through the process, the United States suddenly and unjustifiably changed the terms it demanded from its enemy.

“The Trump Doctrine is brutally simple,” JD Vance said yesterday to describe the modus operandi. as “defining a clear American interest. Push hard through diplomacy. If that fails, strike fast, win fast, and withdraw, before it becomes another endless war.” With such lightness, the US vice president described a spiral of war that has made diplomacy impossible—although Iran remains willing to engage in it, possibly because it has no other choice, although the terms will always be those of an ultimatum that goes beyond the nuclear program—and has caused serious damage in both the aggressor and the attacked country, where dozens of targeted assassinations of the Iranian military leadership have occurred and more than 600 people have died.

Even more effusive yesterday was Mark Rutte, who spent the entire day flattering his main guest. Hours earlier, Donald Trump had published the apparently private messages received from the NATO Secretary General. In his attempt to use all the means of Trumpism, he thanked him for coming to "achieve something that no American president has achieved in decades." Evidently, Rutte was referring to the commitment signed yesterday by all the Alliance partners, including the three countries that considered it excessive—Spain, Belgium, and Slovakia—to increase military spending to exactly the percentage Donald Trump had demanded. "You are flying to another great success in The Hague this afternoon," wrote the euphoric Rutte. "It wasn't easy, but we got everyone on board for the 5%." In his message, the NATO Secretary General also congratulated and thanked the US President for his "decisive action in Iran, which was truly extraordinary and something no one dared to do." Bombing nuclear facilities poses a risk of nuclear accident when Russia is accused of doing so—usually when Ukraine uses artillery against the Russian-controlled Energodar nuclear plant, only to later accuse Moscow—although in this case, "it makes us all safer." The culmination of Rutte's voluntary submission to Donald Trump, who is in reality the embodiment of the subordination of the bloc's European countries to the United States, came yesterday, when Mark Rutte stated, in reference to Trump's reproach to Israel and Iran the day before, that "sometimes daddy has to use harsh language."

Sometimes, neither tough language , nor inducements in the form of the return of American companies to their territory, nor future threats of even more sanctions are enough to achieve the objective. “Because it's harder than people might imagine. Vladimir Putin has been harder. Frankly, I had some problems with Zelinsky (sic), you may have read about them, and it's been harder than other wars,” President Trump said when asked why, after five months and five days, he still hasn't achieved what he initially thought would be very simple. Obviously, it's easier to end imaginary nuclear wars, boast about having resolved conflicts that are still ongoing, or end a war provoked by your own ally, in which a phone call with an order is enough to have you arrest the pilots sent to carry out a new bombing raid after an understanding—not an agreement, since there was no direct conversation or agreed terms—to cease fire.

In his appearance, Donald Trump showered Volodymyr Zelensky with praise, who has learned to constantly thank the United States for its assistance, not solicit weapons donations but rather offer to purchase American equipment commercially, and attend the meeting dressed in attire that included a formal jacket. "He couldn't have been nicer," said the US president, who again insisted that both his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts want the war to end. Given his uninformed view of the situation and his lack of interest in understanding the complexities of the conflict, Trump's belief makes the end of the war seem as distant as it was when diplomatic contacts began.

“The Allies reaffirm their ongoing sovereign commitments to support Ukraine, whose security contributes to ours, and, to this end, will include direct contributions to Ukraine's defense and its defense industry in the calculation of Allies' defense expenditures,” reads the only sentence referring to the Russo-Ukrainian war in the summit's final communiqué. The mention and the invitation to the gala dinner, though not to the summit itself or its family photo, were enough for Ukraine to declare victory, gain media presence, and allow it to once again demand more weapons, ammunition, and sanctions against Russia. After the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, Andriy Ermak wrote that “truth and justice always win.” Zelensky's right-hand man referred, of course, to the president of the United States, a man renowned for his ability to manipulate the rules at will and whose first spokesperson coined the term "alternative facts," a fundamental basis of Trumpist communication, capable of presenting himself as a peacemaker after having provoked a war to derail a negotiation process that had seemed too long.

The closure—false, despite Donald Trump's refusal to see it—of the conflict between Israel and Iran gives the US president time to refocus on ending the war in Ukraine, for which he announced he will speak again with Vladimir Putin. However, dialogue and diplomacy, at least in their usual definition, are not Ukraine's preferred option, which has been suggesting since Sunday that Russia deserves the same treatment Iran has received.

“Putin's regime has stopped thinking about the future in terms of peace and coexistence,” Mikhail Podolyak wrote yesterday in the final paragraph of a post about how war has become the Russian state's raison d'être, which could easily be applied to Ukraine. “War has become Russia's state religion,” he continues, finally proposing that “what can bring such a regime to its senses—what can reduce its level of aggression—has already been convincingly demonstrated by the United States and Israel in Iran. This successful experience must be extended.” Zelensky's right-hand advisor openly calls for the application of the Trump Doctrine against Russia.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/26/el-dia-de-trump/

Google Translator
Arrogant and ignorant, Donald Trump is truly the Avatar of his Class.

******

Brief Frontline Report – June 25, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 25, 2025
From the Russian Ministry of Defense report: Units of the "East" Group, through decisive actions, have liberated the settlement of Yalta in the Donetsk People's Republic. (Marked by a Russian flag on the map.)

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact

The Russian Armed Forces continue to destroy the forward defensive node of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the interfluve between the Volchya and Mokrye Yaly rivers. Following the liberation of the village of Yalta, only one AFU stronghold remains in this triangle—the village of Zvezda (Ukrainia: Zirka).

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary. Граница областей=Oblast Border*.

The destruction of this node will significantly facilitate the task of expanding the bridgehead on the left bank of the Mokrye Yaly River (Мокрые Ялы - in blue text next to Zvezda) advancing Russian Armed Forces units to the line Mirnoye (K. Marx) - Tolstoy. (Note: In this case, the left bank is the west bank, as the Mokrye Yaly flows north into the Volchya.)

Simultaneously, strong pressure is being applied to the enemy from the north (the settlement of Novosergeevka has been half cleared) and from the south, toward the settlements of Shevchenko-Maliyevka-Voskresenka.

The enemy, recognizing the danger of the situation, attempted to counterattack in the area of Perestroika and from Voskresenka toward the village of Fyodorovka (Fedorovka). They were halted, partially destroyed, and forced to retreat to their initial positions.

In the first half of June, the Russian Armed Forces actively pushed forward on the right flank of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) sector of the Donetsk direction, while the second half of June has seen significant successes on the left flank of this sector.

The Russian "meat grinder," operating in "demilitarization" mode, is methodically and inexorably grinding the AFU into the very substance that proves useful in agriculture.

Translation Note: When Russian is written by hand, the "г" (when typed) looks like a backward "S," and the "и" looks like our "u." Also, the typed Russian "т" looks like a western "m" when it is written by hand. Lastly, the "д" turns into something that looks like a "d." Hopefully, this helps if some of the symbols seem unfamiliar to you!

Here's a bit of extra info for the Substack subscribers. Some have asked about the labels on the “flags” with numbers and letters. Those are referencing the locations of military units. If you are curious:

- ОА – combined arms army,
- гв. – Guards (This is an honorary title given to units who have shown distinction in duty.),
- о. – separate (independent),
- бр. – brigade,
- д. – division,
- п. – regiment,
- б. – battalion,
- м. – motorized,
- мс. (mid-text) – motor rifle (motorized infantry),
- мп. (end of text) – naval infantry (marines),
- ш. – assault,
- ег. – jäger (light infantry),
- мс – motor rifle (motorized rifle),
- с. – rifle,
- дш. – air assault,
- вд. – airborne,
- пд. – parachute assault,
- ТрО. – territorial defense,
- СпН. – special purpose (Spetsnaz),
- ОсН – special designation...

Examples:
- 32 омсбр – 32nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade,
- 117 гв. вдп – 117th Guards Airborne Regiment,
- 3 мб 150 омбр – 3rd Mechanized Battalion, 150th Separate Mechanized Brigade,
- 355 обрмп – 355th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade,
- 150 омпбр – 150th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade.

Unit type flags (shapes indicate unit size):
- Triangular – battalion,
- Rectangular – regiment,
- Pennant (slanted rectangle) – brigade,
- M-shaped flag – division.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ne-25-2025

******

Bellingcat and the OCCRP: Regime change journalism

'Wagnergate' - the NATO impeachment attempt of 2020-21. Christo Grozev's participation in Ukrainian covert operations.
Events in Ukraine
Jun 25, 2025

Yesterday, we learned about the recent revelation that Denys Bihus, one of Ukraine’s most well-known western-funded ‘independent anti-corruption journalists’ is also a proud agent of the country’s infamously corrupt Security Services (SBU).

Today, we will look at the same phenomenon at a grander scale. We will see exactly what sort of operations the likes of Bihus conduct, using the example of Bellingcat’s Christo Grozev and the 2020-1 ‘Wagnergate’.

First, militaristic Ukrainian intelligence agents attempt to discredit Zelensky’s peacemaking efforts with a covert operation intended to enrage Russia.

Then, when Zelensky’s administration wrecked that plan, Grozev and other western-funded publications in Ukraine whipped up a media storm about Zelensky’s ‘treason’. For a time, it even seemed that a military coup by pro-western intelligence officers was imminent.

And finally, after 2022, Grozev took intimate part in an anti-Russian covert operation by his Ukrainian spook friend. Today, I’ll highlight proof of Grozev’s participation that contradicts his denials of involvement. As far as I can tell, I am the first to point out the inconsistency in the words of the western world’s greatest ‘independent journalist’.

The OCCRP
To understand the media ecosystem behind Wagnergate, we need to take a look at one of Denys Bihus’s former employers - the OCCRP - the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project.

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As the DropSite described it in a landmark recent investigation, this ‘collaborative journalistic institution has reshaped global affairs with its investigations of enormous tranches of leaked documents’.

For their part, the OCCRP boasts of its role spurring regime change in non-western countries:

All good journalists want impact, and OCCRP has delivered. “We've probably been responsible for about five or six countries changing over from one government to another government,” said Drew Sullivan [head of the OCCRP - EIU]. (He identified four: Bosnia, Kyrgyzstan, the Czech Republic, and Montenegro.) “People do a lot of stuff to try to get that same impact. But investigative reporting actually does it.”

The DropSite was also able to find that this network of ‘independent journalists’ is largely funded by western governments:

Between 2014 and 2023, the American federal government provided 52 percent of the money actually spent by OCCRP, and, since its founding in 2008, has shoveled at least $47 million (and committed $12 million more) to the ostensibly independent, nonprofit newsroom. Other Western governments—including Britain, France, Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands—have kicked in at least $15 million during the last 10 years. That’s according to a tabulation of OCCRP’s annual audit reports, cross-referenced with federal budget documents outlining disbursements. The review was conducted by a consortium of international news outlets, including Drop Site News, and is being published in conjunction with news outlets in Italy, France, and Greece. (Head of the OCCRP] Drew Sullivan quibbled with the methodology behind the analysis, arguing grants that are passed through to other organizations shouldn’t be counted. Using his methodology, the figure still reaches 46 percent.)

As the Dropsite notes, the biggest ‘scoops’ by the OCCRP were levelled at geopolitical enemies of the US: ‘OCCRP did the Russia-focused reporting from the Panama Papers and played a key role in the Pandora Papers, the Suisse Secrets, the Russian Laundromat, and China Tobacco.’

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The OCCRP’s reporting also played a major role in Russiagate. ‘OCCRP’s reporting on Rudy Giuliani’s political work in Ukraine was cited four times in the whistleblower letter that led to President Donald Trump’s impeachment.’

I have written here in detail about how USAID-funded media cooperated with the SBU back in 2016 to ‘spark’ the ‘Russiagate’ saga. Naturally, many in Ukraine believe that these ‘independent journalists’ were simply given orders to set such a fire by their handlers in the Democrat Party.

Anyway, the key ‘journalist’ in that saga was Serhiy Leshchenko. The OCCRP covered the questionable details of Russiagate in a range of articles, and Leshchenko even wrote an article for the OCCRP in 2018. Today, Leshchenko continues his beloved craft as ‘DJ technocrat’, moonlighting as advisor to Zelensky’s chief of staff.



Indeed, OCCRP’s role in the impeachment of Trump was highlighted earlier this year by US journalist Michael Schellenberger. His description of CIA-OCCRP cooperation is quite relevant to the story of the SBU agent Denys Bihus - in this world, it appears to be normal for journalists to work for intelligence agencies:

As such, it appears that CIA, USAID, and OCCRP were all involved in the impeachment of President Trump in ways similar to the regime change operations that all three organizations engage in abroad. The difference is that it is highly illegal and even treasonous for CIA, USAID, and its contractors and intermediaries, known as “cut-outs,” to interfere in US politics this way.

Who else has worked at OCCRP? They conduct constant training programs worldwide, particularly in Eastern Europe - just about every ‘independent journalist’ in the region is partly an OCCRP creation.

One prominent example of a former writer for the OCCRP is Veronika Melkozerova, currently Ukraine editor at Politico Europe. She also has experience at Deutsche Welle, the Washington Times, NBC, Kyiv Post, and the New Voice of Ukraine. There’s also Natalya Sedletskaya, currently presenter of ‘Skhemi’, the ‘anti-corruption’ publication set up partly by Radio Free Europe. And Anna Babynets, head editor of ‘slidstvo.info’ - she was OCCRP’s official representative in Ukraine. Dmytro Hnap is another journalist at slidstvo.info with experience at the OCCRP.

And, of course, Denys Bihus, the SBU agent. Though I have the suspicion that he isn’t the only ‘independent journalist’ who works directly for Ukraine’s intelligence services.

In any case, what unites them all is the same hysterical anti-Russian militarism, the same support for total mobilization of every Ukrainian other than themselves.

Bellingcat and ‘Wagnergate’
Let’s take a look at another independent journalist who has written for the OCCRP - Christo Grozev. He is best known as lead Russia researcher at Bellingcat until February 2023 and executive director since 2022. And like the OCCRP, he played a major role in what may have been an attempted regime change levelled against the Zelensky government.

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Journalists at MintPress and the Grayzone have already gone into the details of Bellingcat’s relationship with NATO government intelligence agencies. I won’t rehash them here.

Today’s topic is something that I haven’t seen remarked upon in the press - recent admission by the western press that Christo Grozev was an active participant in both pre-war and wartime special operations by Ukrainian intelligence agents.

To begin with, a word on Grozev. He isn’t just a journalist - he is the owner of multiple media corporations in both his native Bulgaria and abroad. In 2000, Grozev became CEO of the Radio Division of Metromedia, which supervised more than 30 radio stations in 11 countries, from Russia and other post-soviet countries to central Europe. It expanded into Ukraine in 2005, following the pro-western ‘Orange Revolution’.

Bellingcat was founded in 2014 after the start of the war in Ukraine. It is well known for its role in attempting to prove that pro-Russian forces were responsible for the downing of Dutch passenger plane MH-17 in July of that year.

But Grozev and Bellingcat played a truly explosive role in Ukrainian politics in 2021. This was the bizarre story of Wagnergate. At the time, I remember how Ukrainian media was absolutely swamped with arguments over the arcane details of this strange matter.

Exiting the metro one day, I was apprehended by a loud young man from the nationalist svoboda party, who handed me a flier about how ‘Zelensky’s traitorous chief of staff Yermak betrayed Ukraine’. My clarifying questions had little effect.

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Yermak and Zelensky in a Ukrainian BBC article on Wagnergate

In short, this is what happened. Roman Chervinsky, a Ukrainian SBU officer with a wealth of experience assassinating those deemed to be ‘enemies of the Ukrainian state’ in the 2014-2020 period, was head of the SBU’s ‘Fifth Directorate’ from 2017 to 2019. The Fifth Directorate was set up with CIA funding, as openly admitted by the likes of the New Yorker.

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Chervinsky

However, in 2019, Volodymyr Zelensky was elected on the platform of a peacemaker with Russia. He dismissed Chervinsky from his post. Chervinsky, however, itched for action. That year, he was given a role in the HUR - the Main Intelligence Directorate. I wrote about the HUR’s status as a joint CIA-MI6 creation in detail here.

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The emblem of the HUR

Chervinsky got to work aiding in a supposedly long-existing scheme to kidnap and extradite to Ukraine a group of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner PMC. The justification was their suspected participation in the war between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian armed groups in Ukraine’s east. The Wagnerites were to be lured to a third country (Belarus) as part of a fictional mission, whereupon their plane would be diverted to Ukraine and tried for war crimes.

However, this so-called ‘Operation Avenue’ went at crossroads with the intentions of the Ukrainian government. At the time, Zelensky and head of his administration Andriy Yermak were deep in negotiations with Russia. The OCCRP ecosystem of journalists, those like Bihus.info, Slidstvo, skhemi, Radio Free Europe, and Ukrainskaya Pravda, were all up in arms about the possibility of ‘betrayal of Ukraine’s euro-atlantic integration’. Yermak was constantly singled out as a nefarious Russian spy.

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They and their sponsors feared that the Ukrainian government might eventually return to geopolitical neutrality and remove the constitutional clause about the necessity to join NATO. The infamous ‘“red lines” President Zelenskyi can’t cross’ document released in 2019 by Ukraine’s western-funded liberal nationalist ‘NGOs’ exemplifies the atmosphere of the time.

Chervinsky’s HUR team informed the presidential administration about their operation in mid-July 2020. But Yermak told the head of the HUR that ‘Avenue’ would have to be delayed, since Zelensky and Putin had agreed to a ceasefire that was to take effect two days after the planned operation was to take place. Kidnapping Russian citizens in a country allied with Russia would have wrecked Yermak’s diplomatic efforts.

Following this delay, at the end of July, the dozens of Wagner fighters that had been painstakingly lured by Chervinsky’s HUR team to Belarus were arrested by local security services and eventually deported back to Russia. The head of the HUR, Vasyl Burba, became convinced that Yermak had purposefully leaked information on their operation. Burba was sacked in early August 2020 and replaced by Kyryllo Budanov, who remains in place.

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Burba on left

From this point onwards, the so-called ‘Wagnergate’ became the chief obsession of Ukraine’s ‘independent media’. Their TV channels and websites were filled with exposes of how Yermak was in fact a duplicitous Russian spy. Yermak, for his part, called the affair a ‘well-planned disinformation campaign’ against the Ukrainian government.

And possible the chief role was played by Christo Grozev’s Bellingcat. His authoritative western voice lent crucial credence to the claims made.

In Ukrainian liberal nationalist discourse, ‘Wagnergate’ was practically synonymous with ‘Bellingcat’. This is partly because of their massive November 17 piece 2021 on the matter, which was meant to be the first article of a series. Its findings were summarized by the likes of Euromaidan press as follows:

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More importantly, Bellingcat also constantly announced the release of a shocking documentary film on Wagnergate, which Ukrainian lib-nat media eagerly awaited. The way they hyped it up, it was clear that it would contain thunderous proof of Yermak and Zelensky’s Putlerite treachery. The film was never released.

In any case, in the written material Bellingcat did release, Grozev painted the Wagner operation as a genius plan that would have detained war criminals but was mysteriously wrecked at the last minute.

There is a particularly interesting admission in Grozev’s article on the causes of the operation’s failure (my bolding):

Unusually for Bellingcat, the Wagnergate investigation relied to a large extent on sources who could not be named either because they requested anonymity to discuss classified matters or, in the case of Russian mercenaries, who requested they not be named for their own safety.

In other words, Grozev was clearly getting his information on Yermak’s supposedly treasonous conduct from members of Ukraine’s securocratic deep state. What interests might they have in trying to torpedo Zelensky’s government, then perceived as dangerously close to entente with Russia?

Wagnergate wasn’t just a media circus, but an attempted regime change operation - in the best traditions of the OCCRP.

Throughout the 2019-21 period, as I’ve written here, there was the serious fear that Ukraine under Zelensky would undergo the so-called ‘Georgian scenario’ - geopolitical neutrality, re-integration of the pro-Russian territories in the east, and detente with Russia. Peace and economic development - a horrifying prospect for those surviving off western grant money.

Accordingly, the pro-western liberal nationalists even attempted to impeach Zelensky for his supposed role in thwarting the Wagner operation. Whether or not they really intended to remove him, the aim was certainly for the president to be under sufficient pressure to exclude detente with Russia.

On February 18 2021, the former head of HUR Burba along with a group of other high-level military intelligence officers sent a request to the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI).

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In it, they demanded investigation as to whether Zelensky and Yermak had committed state treason by leaking details of Project Avenue. This was triumphantly announced by pro-western liberal nationalist media allied to ex-president Petro Poroshenko, such as Censor.net.

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Poroshenko: New intel chief to give fresh impetus to military intelligence in Ukraine - Oct. 25, 2016 | KyivPost

Poroshenko meeting with HUR leader Burba in 2016
In the following extract from the February 28 Censor.net article, note in particular the fact that Burba, for whatever reason, had a car supplied by the US embassy. In general, the supposed wrecking of Avenue is depicted not only as a betrayal of Ukraine, but also of the US:

President Zelensky evicted former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (HUR), Vasyl Burba, from his house and removed his security detail after he gave testimony regarding the failed operation to capture Russian terrorists. The head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, phoned Christo Grozev, the author of the film about "Wagnergate", which is set to be released in March.

On February 26, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation announced a reward for the capture of Yevgeny Prigozhin – owner of the Russian private military company “Wagner,” which is essentially a terrorist organization waging war in Ukraine and other countries around the world. The U.S. is increasing pressure on Putin’s regime and is investigating Wagner’s activities. Prigozhin was declared wanted in June 2020 – just before the failed special operation to detain Wagner operatives.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine on February 22, without any prior notice or warning, the family of Colonel General Vasyl Burba was evicted from the secured settlement in Koncha-Zaspa. Burba, who holds information of particular state importance, was also stripped of his cover documents by the HUR and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). His only remaining protection is a vehicle provided by the U.S. Embassy.

According to Censor.NET sources, President Volodymyr Zelensky gave the order to silence the witnesses of the failed special operation to capture the Wagner terrorists, which was carried out by the Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine in cooperation with U.S. and Turkish intelligence services in July 2020.

This happened shortly after Burba and a group of other senior military intelligence officers testified before the State Bureau of Investigation and the Prosecutor General’s Office, fully confirming the act of betrayal and the disruption of the special operation against the Wagner terrorists following a meeting at the President’s Office on July 24.

According to Censor.NET, on the eve of the eviction from Koncha-Zaspa, Burba met with a special services officer acting as a trusted representative of President Zelensky, who offered him the position of Ukraine’s ambassador to Australia in exchange for a public denial of the Wagner scandal, a refusal to give interviews, and a cessation of any cooperation with Bellingcat journalist Christo Grozev. Otherwise, Burba was directly threatened – with eviction from the guarded residence, loss of documents, dismissal of his brother from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the opening of criminal cases. Burba refused this disgraceful deal. And the threats were immediately carried out.

The official reason for the eviction was “reconstruction of the guard booth” at the entrance to the property, which was used as justification to instantly terminate the housing agreement.

By ordering the eviction, President Zelensky effectively documented an attempt to pressure a key witness. That is, the President's Office demonstrated that it was responsible for the betrayal and is now trying to cover up the crime.

According to Censor.NET’s sources, this unprecedented blackmail is connected to the imminent release of the first part of Christo Grozev’s investigation into Wagner PMC and, specifically, the failed special operation to capture the terrorists. Our sources state that Andriy Yermak personally called Grozev, trying to find out what would be included in the film and how the President’s Office could explain its position. He was heard, but it will not affect the film’s release schedule.

I spoke with Grozev, and according to him, the first part of “Wagnergate” will be released in March, with a full-length film coming in the summer. The eviction of Burba and attempts to cover up the traces of betrayal, in my view, will serve as an obvious example for every Netflix viewer in the U.S. of how adequately President Zelensky handles matters of national defense.


Censor.net’s main journalist, the firebrand close to western embassies Yury Butusov, also threatened Zelensky and accused him of harboring Russian spies at the highest levels of government:

Let me remind you that I gave testimony to the State Bureau of Investigation regarding the leak of information on “Wagnergate.” I demand an official statement from the investigation – was it a failed special operation or not? Did I disclose classified information about a special operation, or did I deceive everyone? You’ve been investigating the case for six months – when will you tell the public the truth? Let the leadership of the SBI, not the deceptive PR team at the President’s Office, make an official conclusion – was there an operation or not?

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Butusov

I warn the President about the consequences. After you ordered the removal of security from HUR officials who worked on the Wagner case, you exposed them all to potential Russian sabotage. It seems to me that this is exactly what the Russian spy and traitor Ruslan Demchenko – whom you appointed head of the Intelligence Committee – is hoping for. But if anything happens to the DIU personnel, all responsibility for their fate will lie entirely with Zelensky. And the protest in front of the President’s Office will no longer be peaceful. And then, the film about “Wagnergate” – starring the President of Ukraine – will be watched by the whole world.

Censor.net was acting as part of a large-scale media campaign throughout 2019-21 to put pressure on Zelensky as insufficiently patriotic. It was partly as a result that the president began trying to constantly demonstrate his status as a ‘real anti-Russian nationalist’. The rest is history.

Along with the spook Burba’s efforts, USAID-funded, OCCRP-partnered publications like Ukrainska Pravda put out publication after publication on how Yermak and Zelensky ‘betrayed’ Project Avenue. This was spearheaded in particular by ex-president Petro Poroshenko and his party, who portrays himself as the true Atlanticist nationalist against the crypto-Russian agent Zelensky. He also claimed responsibility for planning Project Avenue under his presidency (2014-19).

In November 2020, for instance, representatives of Poroshenko’s ‘European Solidarity’ (ES) party claimed that Zelensky’s ruling party was blocking ES’s initiative to set up a temporary investigative committee. This committee was, in their words, to look into ‘likely state treason committed in the country's highest offices, [as a result of which] the operation against the "Wagnerites" was foiled”.

The pressure continued all the way through late 2021. On November 25, a few days after the release of Bellingcat’s piece, a group of nationalist west Ukrainian military veterans officially demanded that the General Prosecutor set up an independent investigative commission regarding ‘Wagnergate’:

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Note the blood and soil flag of the fascist Ukrainian Insurgent Army of the 1940s

Dmytro Haidutskyi, the coordinator of the public organization Brothers in Arms in Ternopil Oblast, emphasized that the new statements by Vasyl Burba, who led the Main Intelligence Directorate, along with the information released by international investigations, have shed light on this operation. In his opinion, it has become clear that Volodymyr Zelensky lied, and that the president’s close circle, together with him, committed a crime.

Participants in the event consider the disruption of the special operation to detain Wagner fighters to be a criminal act. Meanwhile, they described the temporary investigative commission currently handling the investigation of these circumstances as biased and politically motivated.

The head of the Ternopil regional branch of the Union of Officers of Ukraine, Oleksandr Varakuta, stressed that cases are now emerging which, unfortunately, border on treason. He believes that in such matters, there must be a clear response from Ukrainian public officials—especially from the Commander-in-Chief. Varakuta stated that such matters are extremely dangerous, particularly when the country is at war.


Angry nationalist officers accusing the president of ‘crimes’ and even ‘treason’. It all sounded quite like the preparation for a military coup.

Remember Roman Chervinsky, the HUR agent in charge of Project Avenue? He left the HUR in June 2021 - all the better to take part in what one might call Operation Wagnergate. In December of that year, he took to Ukrainian television, declaring that the failure of Project Avenue was the result of ‘betrayal’ and blamed a mole in the President’s Office:

“I am ninety-nine per cent certain that this was an act of treason.”

The New Yorker described the affair quite aptly:

the battle lines surrounding Wagnergate were clear: those who favored a more hawkish policy toward Russia, including powerful figures in Poroshenko’s camp, had used the incident as a cudgel against Zelensky and his team.

Luckily for Zelensky, Russia invaded in February 2022. Nevertheless, given Poroshenko’s ongoing support for Chervinsky and his increasingly open oppositional activity to Zelensky, I’m sure the interminable Wagnergate saga has yet to be exhausted. Particularly if elections are ever to take place.

Another missed flight
Though the time for Wagnergate was over, Grozev continued working alongside his HUR friends in wartime Ukraine.

In 2022, Roman Chervinsky, the man who had played the leading role in the failed ‘Project Avenue’, became possessed with another zany idea (he was also later blamed for the Nord Stream explosion, a matter I won’t even try to go into here).

He intended to get Russian pilots to defect to Ukraine, taking a Russian jet with them. However, it failed spectacularly - Russian military intelligence was aware of what was going on. They used the information to launch a missile strike on the Ukrainian airfield, killing a number of personnel. As a result, Chervinsky was arrested in April 2023. Poroshenko would pay his lawyer fees and bail in July 2024, in what has been a major instance of subterranean wartime political struggles.

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Chervinsky in court

When the Chervinsky plane scandal broke back in July 2022, Russian media accused Grozev of involvement, which he publicly denied:

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This ‘maverick ex operative’ mentioned by Grozev was obviously a hint at Chervinsky. But in the same thread, Grozev shared some of his sleuthing on the FSB agents involved. Hardly the activities of a mere observer shooting a documentary film:

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Now let’s have a look at a February 2025 article from the New Yorker.

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The piece is filled with that beloved device of western legacy media - cheerfully admitting the western/Ukrainian organization of assassinations in the 2014-21 period they’d previously blamed on Russia.

And more importantly, it shows that Grozev played quite an active role in Chervinsky’s operation (my bolding):

[Chervinsky’s operative] Bohdan had identified three possible candidates. One of the pilots, who flew a long-range bomber on missions to Mariupol, said that he was worried about getting his wife and their three children out of the secure military town where they lived. “I don’t want to have the same story as Skripal,” he told Bohdan, referring to the former Russian intelligence officer who, in 2018, was poisoned in the U.K. Another pilot wanted to defect not with his wife—“It’s a complicated relationship,” he said—but with his mistress, a fitness trainer in her twenties. Chervinsky asked Christo Grozev, then a researcher at the open-source-intelligence outfit Bellingcat, to share a trove of Russian cell-phone billing records. Geolocation data showed that the pilot’s mistress had visited F.S.B. facilities in Moscow. Soon, both candidates disappeared.

All in all, Grozev was certainly being coy when he claimed back in July 2022 that his role in Chervinsky’s plane operation was merely as a ‘chronicler’. Chroniclers don’t get to work sharing, and probably churning through databases to help the ‘subject of their documentary’ narrow down his targets.

I guess that’s just what independent journalism means nowadays - working with ultra-militaristic spooks to try and get rid of excessively pacifistic presidents and to make sure they succeed in their violent wartime missions.

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... ime-change

******

Liberation of Yalta. 06/25/2025

(Video at link.)

During the decisive offensive actions of the fighters of the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army, the settlement of Yalta of the Donetsk People's Republic was liberated!

In less than three days, the Transbaikalian Voiny established full control over the settlement and installed the flags of the Russian Federation, thereby completing its liberation.

Over the course of five days, this is the third settlement liberated by the Vostok group (after Zaporozhye and Perebudov).

The units are consolidating their positions.

Our guys continue to liberate the land of the Donetsk People's Republic, and the Far Eastern Express of the Vostok Group does not slow down to the Dnepropetrovsk region!

We continue to monitor the successes of our guys and cover their exploits!


@voin_dv - zinc

Podolyak, where is the coffee in Yalta?! Where is the coffee, I ask you?

I believe that by the end of the summer the remnants of the DPR territory occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the southern Donetsk direction will be cleared out.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9920421.html

Google Translator

****

Only Political Engineering Can Restore Russian Language Rights In Ukraine Like Lavrov Wants
Andrew Korybko
Jun 26, 2025

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Only the US is capable of pulling this off since Russia lacks influence over Ukraine’s political processes.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pledged in early June on Russian Language Day that “Russia will not leave Russians and Russian-speaking people in trouble and will make sure that their legal rights, including the right to speak their native language, are restored in full. We will continue to speak about this pressing problem on international platforms. We will insist on having it resolved as a prerequisite for a lasting peaceful settlement of the Ukraine conflict.”

This aligns with Russia’s denazification goal and was included in the memo for ending the conflict that it handed to Ukraine during the second round of their newly resumed bilateral talks in Istanbul. Objectively speaking, the restoration of full Russian language rights in Ukraine is required for a sustainable peace, but this can only be brought about via legislative changes. Therein lies the problem since the Rada isn’t interested in repealing 2019’s “state language law” that entered into force in early 2022.

For precisely this reason, Russia’s memo also calls for elections to the Rada in parallel with those for the presidency, though there still wouldn’t be any guarantee that Russian-friendly forces (in the context of repealing the aforementioned law) would come to power for implementing that pragmatic demand. That’s why political engineering is ultimately required for restoring full Russian language rights in Ukraine, but Russia lacks influence over its political processes as proven by its inability to effect change.

Therefore, this part of Russia’s denazification goal might not be met unless the US takes on this responsibility, which it’d be wise to do so as to remove the roots of another conflict. After all, so long as Russian language rights aren’t fully restored, the Kremlin will keep championing this cause and possibly even consider covert action of some sort in pursuit of it. The millions of discriminated Russian speakers in Ukraine could provide a fertile recruiting ground for such operations after martial law is lifted.

The Trump Administration thus far doesn’t seem interested in that though as evidenced by the absence of pressure upon Zelensky to comply with Russia’s more important demanded concessions for peace like territorial claims and demilitarization. In fact, Trump suggested during his meeting at the White House with new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in early June that it might be better for Russia and Ukraine to fight each other for a bit longer, which hints that he’s disinterested in these finer details for peace.

Even if he learned about them and agreed that they’re the best way for sustainably ending the conflict, perhaps under the influence of his pragmatic Special Envoy to Russia Steve Witkoff, questions would then arise about the means for politically engineering the desired outcome. It remains unclear how many Rada members will run for re-election, who’d oppose them, and what their position towards this highly sensitive issue would be in the domestic post-conflict context if they won.

Even if these details were known, secretive funding and media support for preferred candidates can only go so far, let alone for politically engineering an outcome where the Rada votes to repeal the “state language law” and the (new?) president doesn’t veto it or is overridden by a two-thirds majority. The most realistic way of advancing this goal is for the US to make post-conflict military and intelligence aid contingent on it being met, but for that to happen, Trump must rethink his entire envisaged endgame.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/only-pol ... an-restore

Great map, but Andy must be in the absinthe again.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Jun 27, 2025 11:59 am

Tailor-made justice
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 27, 2025

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“Try this for a split screen: EU foreign ministers will meet in Ukraine today and back the creation of a war crimes tribunal; while in Russia, Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico will attend Vladimir Putin's parade of forces involved in his illegal war against Ukraine,” wrote the Financial Times on May 9, unafraid to use value judgments or personalize the annual VE Day parade in the figure of the Russian president . On that day, a divided Europe celebrated the victory over fascism in the east, while the west laid the groundwork for perpetuating the current division. From their moral high ground, the EU authorities announced what they presented as a new Nuremberg, a tribunal of their own making, created by and for themselves, to judge only Russian crimes, on the basis that the war in Ukraine is just and its response is even more impeccable.

“I haven't heard of any Russian civilians killed by Ukrainian missiles or drones,” Lily Hamourtziadou, author of The Ethics of Remote Warfare , commented in an interview, reflecting precisely this idea: the war in Ukraine—in which it has been forgotten that it was Ukraine that decided to resolve a political problem by military means 11 years ago—is not only defensive, but Kiev's actions are strictly humanitarian, without war crimes and protecting civil protection. The more than 20 civilians killed in the center of Belgorod on December 30, 2023, just one example of Ukrainian artillery attacks, have no right to disagree, nor do the civilian population of Donetsk, subjected to absurd, indiscriminate, daily bombing from May 2022 until Russia was finally able to move the front away from the city in 2024.


In the current circumstances of cognitive dissonance, wilful blindness, and the use of the idea of ​​a rules-based international order, with the corollary, "only against my enemies," the double standard and the self-serving use of justice are yet another weapon in a war that goes far beyond the military level, movements on the front lines, and short- and medium-term prospects. Under the idea that Ukraine is not only defending itself but also the security of the entire continent, giving the continent time to rearm in the face of a future Russian attempt to invade a European member country of the EU or NATO, the most recent dogma to be established as an absolute truth, the EU and NATO have established a moral obligation for both alliances to militarily support Kiev for as long as necessary , wearing down Russia for as long as possible, even if it comes at the expense of the country they claim to be protecting. This Russian threat, which is not a threat to NATO countries, is currently justifying the rearmament of the Alliance and its European political arm, the EU, whose interest lies in perpetuating this collective anxiety that leads to the chronic nature of the conflict and an effective partition of the continent.

“Eighty years ago, from the ashes of war, the world planted a seed of hope: the United Nations Charter as a promise that peace is possible when humanity stands united and as the basis of international cooperation for a better world. I will never give up that hope,” wrote António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, yesterday. His utopian stance contrasts with the more pragmatic steps taken this week by the European Union and Ukraine, which, outside the United Nations, have launched the project for an ad hoc tribunal to prosecute only crimes that are politically useful to them. The same countries that demand Vladimir Putin's arrest under an International Criminal Court warrant on charges of “kidnapping” Ukrainian minors and that at the same time protect Benjamin Netanyahu, accused of genocide, proclaim themselves empowered to decide who should be tried and who should not. Those working on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, but who have not even suspended the EU-Israel association agreement, proclaim, through Kaja Kallas, that "every inch of Russia's war has been documented," adding that "there is no room for doubt or impunity," without specifying that this is only the case for political enemies. Those who for years denied pensions to the elderly, disabled, and orphaned population of Donbass and have unequivocally supported Israeli aggression, proclaim their moral superiority, stating, as Zelensky did yesterday, that "every war criminal must know that there will be justice." All war criminals will be equal, but some will be more equal than others.

“The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe was the first international body to support Ukraine’s idea of ​​establishing a Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine,” boasted Volodymyr Zelensky, referring to the institution that, during the war years in Donbas, served as a political platform for the most fervent Ukrainian politicians. This is the case of Alexey Honcharenko, famous for having his photo taken in the House of Trade Unions in Odessa when the burned bodies of the victims had not yet been removed and who made the chamber his place of political promotion. “We truly value this,” Zelensky continued, adding that “the Tribunal, officially inaugurated today, provides a real opportunity to hold the leaders of the Russian regime accountable for the crimes committed against our state and our people. We will continue working to ensure justice for all victims. The criminals must be tried in The Hague and punished.”

With international courts politicized as a geopolitical weapon at the service of those capable of imposing and manipulating both international justice and the United Nations system at will, European institutions have decided to create one tailored to their needs, focusing solely on cases favorable to them, thus repeating the experience of courts that only aspired to judge ideologically incorrect African dictators and Serbian leaders and military personnel.

“This Tribunal is essential to restoring the international legal order and ensuring accountability for the crime of aggression,” wrote Andriy Sibiha, Ukraine’s foreign minister, in a week in which it has become clear that the international legal order is applicable only in cases where it is politically expedient. In a post highlighting the hypocrisy of the West, Iranian-born American historian Assal Rad, one of the most rigorous critics of the American think tank establishment , highlighted Ursula von der Leyen’s reaction to this week’s events. “Aggressors must face the judges,” she emphasized of the tweet referring to Russia, which contrasted with the “now is the time for Iran to commit to a credible diplomatic solution” she dedicated to Tehran following the illegal and irresponsible US bombing, a continuation of an Israeli aggression that occurred while Iran was still negotiating and hoping that the other side, Washington, was also interested in an agreement.

The creation of a tribunal—not "for Ukraine," as the media emphasized yesterday, but specifically "against Russia"—can only be understood from the logic of perpetuating the conflict and the chronicization of continental division. The European Union, the latest actor to make the pacifist turn to appease Donald Trump—it did so even after Kiev reluctantly and disbelievingly began to talk about a just peace—must be aware that it will never be able to judge its main target, Vladimir Putin. But it also knows that such steps, which take place outside the international legal system they claim to defend, pose a further obstacle to the diplomatic process. Those who, from a distance and without facing any danger, are willing to finance the war as long as necessary do not seem concerned that the creation of this tribunal makes the ceasefire they so unconvincedly claim to defend a little less likely, and above all, the possibility of political negotiation leading to a peace agreement.

That's not a surprise either. The European objective, shared with the Biden administration until last January, has always been to impose an agreement in which Russia has no say, but only one right: to sign the agreement presented to it as a fait accompli to accept and abide by. That is the meaning of negotiation from a position of strength. In this position, European countries and Ukraine share Donald Trump's modus operandi , who, in the Iranian case, only considers a document drafted by the White House, in which Iran only comes to ratify the order.

“Our goal is to reach negotiations on an Iran nuclear deal between Iran and the United States. Yesterday, I spoke about this with US President Donald Trump, to whom I told him that the same determination is needed to achieve two other important ceasefires: one in Ukraine, where Russia doesn't seem to want to make any progress, and another in Gaza, where, as I have repeatedly said, the situation is unsustainable,” Giorgia Meloni told reporters, her views perfectly summarizing the position of the vast majority of European Union leaders. The methods will have to be different—no one would consider a US bombing of Russia, which would entail immediate retaliation—but the goal is the same: to subject a historic enemy to the will of the West.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/27/justicia-a-medida/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Forwarded from
ADEQUATE Z
In the west of the DPR, together with the village of Shevchenko, a large lithium deposit has returned home. One of the key objects with which the farmstead tried to tempt the main owner, turning the bowels of the earth in front of him in exchange for preserving, if not love, then at least support. An exemplary treacherous (the details have not been announced to this day) deal was signed two months ago. No movement on it, as well as reciprocal love and support, has been visible all this time. And now there is one less object for this movement.

In the bowels of the Dnipropetrovsk region, which is coming up on the agenda, there are also many useful things, starting with Krivbass and manganese, and what of this content will be preserved in the perimeter accessible to the master - we will talk about that separately.

***

Colonelcassad
0:30
Positional confrontation
, situation in the Kramatorsk direction

In the Kramatorsk direction , Russian troops of the "South" group continue a local offensive in the area of ​​Chasov Yar and Konstantinovka . Heavy fighting is underway on the southern flank of the offensive to capture Stupochki .

More information about the situation in the direction

- Assault units of the Russian Armed Forces managed to take control of several more multi-story buildings in Chasov Yar . The enemy has been pushed back to the southern outskirts of the city, but is still clinging to residential buildings.

- Artillerymen, pilots and UAV operators of the Russian Armed Forces are constantly working along the defensive lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Konstantinovka , as well as along the transport corridors in its vicinity.

The enemy continues to try to strengthen the area, but the activity of Russian weapons has greatly narrowed the choice of field fortification means to quickly installed mines and explosives and barbed wire barriers.

- Drones are still being used en masse in this area, on both sides. Operators of the Burevestnik unit conduct constant aerial reconnaissance of enemy positions and the rear zone, after which they destroy the identified targets. Particular attention has recently been paid to the destruction of enemy dugouts.

The issue of retreat from Chasov Yar is an extremely acute topic for the military-political leadership of the so-called Ukraine. The end of the battle for the city is still far away, the enemy is stubbornly defending itself. However, the Russian Armed Forces have achieved certain successes - they have advanced in the urban development and on the flanks near Chasov Yar .

Image

***

Colonelcassad
1:21
Another accomplice of the Ukrainian regime was detained today in the northern capital on the Neva .

During the operational search activities, a resident of St. Petersburg born in 1977 was identified, who, on the instructions of curators from the Ukrainian special services, helped them establish the places of residence in the region of military personnel of the Ministry of Defense, cars used by them and their family members for the purpose of preparing and carrying out terrorist attacks against them.

Correspondence in WhatsApp with coordinators of terrorist activities located in Ukraine was found in her means of communication.

A criminal case was opened on the fact of aiding in the commission of a terrorist act under Part 3 of Article 205.1 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. A preventive measure in the form of detention was chosen for the detainee.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – June 26, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 26, 2025

From the report of the Russian Ministry of Defense:

-Units of the "Center" Group continued their advance into enemy defensive positions and liberated the settlement of Novosergeevka in the Donetsk People's Republic.

-Through active and decisive operations, units of the "East" Group liberated the settlement of Shevchenko in the Donetsk People's Republic.

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact

Yesterday we wished success to our fighters in these sectors - today we receive this news! The development of events follows the precise logic of the operational situation.

Novosergeevka

This small village (approx. 350 residents) in the responsibility of the "Center" Group is located on the right bank of the Solenaya River. Its liberation enables flanking maneuvers against the Udachnoe defensive area and relieves pressure near Kotlino. With subsequent advances toward Muravka, this also will pressure the Novopavlovka area - which is also being approached from the south - while supporting the Zaporozhye-Yalta-Zvezda (Zirka) triangle.

The operational flexibility allows the "Center" Group's command to adapt tactics to changing conditions while maintaining clear objectives. Recall that just months ago, enemy forces were preparing a flanking counterattack near Shevchenko (the one near Pokrovsk, there are several Shecvhenkos) to eliminate the Kotlino salient. Our fighters withstood all AFU counterattacks, exhausted them defensively, and now advance systematically - destabilizing enemy defenses through alternating flank strikes while the "East" grouping maintains pressure along the Yalta-Shevchenko line.

Shevchenko

This village (pop. 1,200) in the respinsibility of the "East" Group lies in lowlands near the Shirokaya Ravine connecting to the Voronaya River. It's notable for its lithium deposit located on its northeastern outskirts (0.8 km², 13.8 million tons of ore), and for hosting other rare earth elements: niobium, tantalum, beryllium, and rubidium.

This was a heavily fortified area with heights protecting its flanks. Its capture provides access to dominant heights along the Mokrye Yaly-Voronaya-Volchya watershed up to the border village of Voskresenka, located on the border between Ukraine and Russian territory. An offensive in this direction is possible, during which they will enter the village of Maliyevka (Dnepropetrovsk Oblast). As in the case of the Center group, the operational space allows for a number of solutions, depending on the situation. One of them is the approach to the village of Kamyshevakha and the partial cutting of the Ivanovka-Temirovka defense line into two parts.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ne-26-2025

******

(Video at link.)

BRUTAL ESCALATION in ODESSA: This HARSH Decision by PUTIN SHOCKED France, Britain, and UKRAINE

BORZZIKMAN

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQG1XH7vll4

(The meat is found starting about 6:30.)

*****

Critical issues and possibilities for peace between Russia and Ukraine

Franco Vielma

June 25, 2025 , 9:02 am .

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The difficult path of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine appears to be at a standstill (Photo: RTVE)

During his election campaign, Donald Trump announced that, upon taking office, he would halt the war in Ukraine within "24 hours ." He said that halting the flow of arms to the Slavic country would create immediate conditions for an end to hostilities.

Upon taking office, the US president initiated actions to try to "stop" the conflict, imposing restrictions on arms supplies to Ukraine, as reported in February 2025 by The New York Times , based on testimony from the military. In March, he formally announced a halt to arms support and briefly halted intelligence, telemetry, and services support for Ukrainian defense and attack systems—although this was later resumed.

Trump indicated that Ukraine must demonstrate a "commitment to achieving peace."

During a heated and embarrassing meeting in the Oval Office with his counterpart Vladimir Zelensky, Trump said that his counterpart was "playing World War III" and indicated that his country did not have "the cards" to further stimulate international military risk by trying to extend the conflict, now with a change of position of the US government.

However, Trump has managed to renew a new mechanism in Istanbul , Turkey, where delegations from the Russian Federation and Ukraine met again, as they did in 2022, with the mediation of the host country.

The two countries are scheduled to meet again at the end of June. They have also exchanged bodies of fallen troops and prisoners of war. The last meeting between the two delegations was extremely brief, lacking expectations, and ended in a stalemate in the negotiations.

The critical, unbreakable ties and completely divergent positions between the countries in direct military conflict remain intact and have, for now, dashed Trump's chances of making his peace proposal in the Slavic nation a reality.

Despite the apparent goal of achieving lasting peace, Trump's initiatives have been fragile, with unfulfilled promises and a lack of clarity in the terms of the negotiations, which has generated skepticism about their viability. These factors deserve a thorough review.

CRITICAL KEYS AND SIGNIFICANT ELEMENTS OF NEGOTIATION POINTS
The territorial question:

Ukraine has proposed a complete withdrawal from Russia of what it considers "its territory." The United States has urged Ukraine to abandon its claim to Crimea, arguing that it seeks a "realistic" approach to negotiations on the territorial issue of the conflict, as the peninsula passed into Russian hands through military occupation and a popular referendum in 2014.

The Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions are also under partial Russian military control and were incorporated into Russia administratively and through a referendum organized during the height of the conflict.

Since the launch of Russia's Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine, the federation's territorial gains have been variable, but have been most consistent in the Donbas region, which has deprived Ukraine of its access to the Sea of ​​Azov.

The Russians have implemented strategies to dismantle the essential terms of Westphalian Sovereignty , the fundamental principle of state sovereignty over territories. They have done so based on the premise that, since 2014, Ukraine has not been a sovereign entity, as its state has become a subsidiary apparatus of NATO and the United States, used as a military enclave to execute existential threats to Russia.

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At this stage of the conflict, Russia has the greatest power to negotiate territorial gains through military means (Photo: TAAS)

Since then, Russia has imposed new sovereignty over these territories, although due to the nature of the conflict, not all of the area declared as its own is under its military control, and consequently, certain portions do not have actual jurisdiction.

The big question at this point is where the new border line between the two countries will begin and end.

The history of comparative law in military conflicts has many precedents. In many cases, territory can be divided in favor of the winning side. This can occur based on militarily consolidated areas.

An inescapable fact in the Russian-Ukrainian context is that Ukraine has no space gains. Its incursion into Kursk was circumstantial and tactical in nature, ultimately proving unsustainable and leading to its expulsion. Therefore, Ukraine is not in a strictly military position to negotiate the territory on equal terms.

From this premise, Ukraine's request that Russia return territories it had militarily won is unworkable and inconsistent with a credible initiative to achieve peace.

Safety guarantees:

For Zelensky, any agreement with guarantees , without extensive commitments from the United States, is insufficient. The prospects for a pact along these lines appear very difficult for Ukraine.

Trump's envoy, Keith Kellogg, proposed a model similar to that of Berlin after World War II, with a demilitarized zone along the Dnipro River, with European peacekeepers (British and French) in the west and Russian troops in the east.

This idea has not been accepted by Russia, which rejects NATO forces on its borders. It is clear that for Russia this is at the heart of certain existential threats and is a key point in the rationale for its OME. The proposal was also not endorsed by Ukraine, which demands stronger security guarantees.

For Ukraine, the central guarantee of its security would be its country's entry into NATO, which completely conflicts with Russia's motives.

The bloc's countries are not all willing to admit Ukraine, and the Trump administration has been adamant in its refusal to admit Ukraine. That key request from kyiv has faded as an initial immutable, and new proposals have emerged instead, including weapons and NATO cooperation. However, the bloc has not made any concrete proposals, nor has it made a definitive decision.

The issue of security guarantees is a critical issue in itself, given that for kyiv, it encompasses components such as territorial integrity, transitional justice, and a consistent and direct response from the country or countries guaranteeing its security in the event of a new conflict with Russia.

For Moscow, however, its guarantees include Ukraine's non-adherence to NATO, its neutrality, as well as a return to the spirit of abrogated agreements, such as the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) — scrapped by Trump in his first term — or a return to the principles of the 1997 Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation, which marked a change in the architecture of international security by declaring that NATO's military borders would not be brought closer to Russia.

For Vladimir Putin, the emphasis is on the fact that many of the logical frameworks for agreements with the West have been broken and rendered unsustainable by the noncompliance of Western countries, so there is a certainty that any pact could be weak.

One of the central tenets of this negotiation is that Russia desires a lasting agreement. But the Federation's security doctrine views post-Euromaidan Ukraine (2014) as a hotbed of instability, a crisis of governance, a sustained economic crisis, and a haven for terrorism and neo-Nazism, driven by widespread hatred of Russian culture and its people.

From Moscow's perspective, Ukraine is a dysfunctional state , which makes it a source of tension. Any new government after Zelensky is susceptible to this set of factors, making the country as a whole a potential catalyst for significant events that could undermine peace. From that point on, the conditions for guarantees become completely decisive.

If Ukraine unilaterally obtains ambitious guarantees—outside of this negotiating framework—the conditions will be ripe for potential new conflicts. And this is a risk that Russia fully understands.

So far, the only "guarantee" Ukraine has received is a minerals and rare earths agreement clearly favorable to the United States. Trump pursued a "briefcase" policy by turning a US-made war into a business fair. In his view, this agreement will guarantee the continued existence of US interests in Ukraine, which would be a long-term deterrent to Russia.

A likely scenario—perhaps the best for kyiv from a realistic perspective—is a possible guarantee agreement for Ukraine, based solely on military support, to a limited extent, from NATO countries—not necessarily the bloc as a whole—in the event of a new war between kyiv and Moscow. That is, what exists today in practice.

Another scenario is the almost complete demilitarization—or the end of certain core military capabilities—of Ukraine, which is one of the objectives of the Russian OME.

The two countries' positions are completely different, and there is no clarity about what will emerge from the ongoing, troubled negotiations. Therefore, the overall conditions for a solid peace agreement remain very difficult.

The actors inside and outside the negotiation:

Donald Trump's efforts to achieve peace have focused on a strategy of direct negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, albeit with mixed results and criticism for allegedly favoring Russia.

This is due to many factors, but it is worth considering that the negotiation process itself—with significant US influence and initiative—represents a significant shift in Washington's policy in this context.

This is one of the main distinctive elements of this initiative. Apparently—and it is very important to emphasize this—the United States acts as the facilitator of the de-escalation and end of hostilities, but it is not an external factor in the conflict because it is, in fact, a cause, an active subject, and a party. It goes far beyond being a sponsor that supplies Ukraine with weapons. It has also provided technological support services in intelligence, communications, and telemetry, with personnel from that country and NATO on the ground to technically facilitate the use of US and other Western weapons.

In fact, the United States is a direct party to the conflict and should not be recognized as an external interlocutor.

Trump has managed to steer his country toward the exit door of the conflict, which can be translated as a temporary tactical retreat by the United States from its broader strategic confrontation with Russia. But, at the same time, Trump is trying to act as judge and jury, attempting to pressure the parties—especially Ukraine—to force an agreement.

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Trump humiliated Zelensky by applying "maximum pressure" in front of cameras, in a troubled effort to "mediate" the conflict (Photo: AFP)
Although he initially seemed inclined to negotiate with Putin, Trump has toughened his rhetoric, calling him "crazy" after the Russian attacks on Kyiv in May 2025 and also opening himself up to new sanctions against Russia if he shows no willingness for peace. However, the Kremlin has downplayed these criticisms and attributed them to "emotional reactions."

Indeed, Trump's actions reflect a "peace through strength" approach, a "passive" approach—through the non-use of weapons—that prioritizes rapid negotiations and pressure through economic sanctions and other expressions of American "power."

His role as facilitator, judge, and jury also involves a great deal of boasting and political rhetoric. The president exercises policy through public communications, and his discourse is meandering, employing resources of blackmail, mockery, and irony, with spasms of sensible reasoning that he himself later discards.

An example of this is the initial context of Israel's attacks on Iran, which took place in the midst of negotiations with Iran, even though it has been clear that he authorized them . Another plop twist in the tycoon's long list.

In other words, the "American side" in the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations is unreliable; it's flattering, devious, disruptive, playing poker, and manipulating the situation as if it were a business sleight of hand. The Russians are taking note of this, since for them, this isn't about freezing the conflict; they're seeking a lasting peace.

On another note, Trump has relegated Europe to a secondary role, urging them to fund Ukraine's reconstruction and increase defense spending, while questioning NATO's relevance and ruling out the presence of US troops in that country. This has generated tensions with European allies, who fear a weakening of the transatlantic alliance.

However, Trump is absolutely right to disengage the European Union (EU) and its European NATO partners from the negotiations , arguing that they do not want an end to the conflict. On this point, the facts support Trump's position.

Several European countries have distanced themselves from the United States on this issue and are unilaterally supporting the majority of foreign military equipment in Ukraine, even pushing dangerous boundaries, such as the possible allocation of German-made Taurus missiles to Kiev. But it is impossible, according to Putin , for them to operate with Ukrainian personnel; it would be German NATO personnel who would attack Russia on behalf of Ukraine.

Now, the Europeans have decided to redesign their security architecture by increasing military spending to levels not seen since World War II. NATO countries in Europe will now have the largest military budget ever recorded in their peacetime history, and this suggests the possibility of projecting military resources into Ukraine to make it a "buffer" or military buffer zone to keep Russia out.

The European side—absent from the negotiating table, but lobbying, lobbying, and conducting political communications in favor of continuing the conflict—is a clear obstacle to the overall peace strategy. The Europeans are likely seeking to contribute to continuing the conflict, even until a new, openly pro-establishment administration in Washington resumes Joe Biden's strategy, with the strategic objective of degrading Russia's capabilities while bolstering NATO's military-industrial complexes.

Given his own personal limitations, style, and the objective circumstances of the context, Trump has the strength to design and execute an effective peacekeeping strategy. But the situation will become more complex as other Western actors commit significant economic and military resources to continue the war.

Another element to consider is Zelensky's own legitimacy as a representative of his country. His mandate has expired; he is a de facto ruler . During this period of seeking détente, Russia has raised the issue of the Ukrainian leader's legal suitability, pointing out the risk that certain agreements could be declared invalid by a future government.

The question of legitimacy goes far beyond the president, who governs with a reduced version of parliament after disqualifying and criminalizing parliamentarians and much of the country's party system.

These factors limit the conditions for a state agreement in Ukraine to facilitate agreements with Russia, which must be long-term.

Trump himself has pushed for elections in Ukraine, but this possibility was completely ruined by the tycoon tormenting Zelensky in the Oval Office, possibly rekindling support for the president in Kyiv.

In any case, NATO propaganda has done a good job of sustaining Zelensky. Furthermore, the internal factors that shape the "tailor-made" power structure—neo-Nazi groups, actors in the post-Maidan political ecosystem, and a new, diminished institutional structure—strengthen the president and have been successful in preventing a civil and military institutional breakdown that would weaken him.

Now Putin appears to have abandoned his position of not negotiating with Zelensky in office. Perhaps realistically, he has said he would meet with his Ukrainian counterpart once the negotiations have reached "the final stage." What is significant about this is that Putin no longer views Zelensky as an obstacle.

Economic factors:

Trump has reached a minerals and rare earths agreement with Ukraine, as a way of "invoicing" his country's massive contributions to the Slavic nation. This item includes the so-called "transactional logic" of the businessman president, openly and without any concealment, with the intention of making Ukraine a post-war investment hub , as the United States often does in other theaters of operations, as if the war were already over.

On the other hand, on Wall Street, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics are some of the sector's leading listed companies that have seen their share prices boosted since 2022. Meanwhile, on European stock markets, other names stand out, such as the French companies Dassault Aviation and Thales, the Italian company Leonardo, the British company BAE Systems, and the German companies MTU Aero Engines and Rheinmetall AG, which have increased their value at the expense of the new European military budget. The Atlantist arms complex has gained significant momentum that will continue, with or without war in Ukraine, at the expense of a redesign of the European security architecture that will benefit companies of that origin, as well as American ones.

Trump has also invited Russia to the business arena, hoping for future détente so that, in theory, new agreements between their countries can be forged with long-term prospects.

This item, of course, suggests a new context for sanctions against Russia, which would have to be scrapped.

It's clear that economic interests could drive decisions. On this point, Trump's peacemaking strategy offers significant advantages for all parties.

Ukraine is a country that has lost a huge portion of its population. Some 10 million Ukrainians have left for Russia, European countries, and other latitudes since 2022. But the process is structural . In 1990, Ukraine within the Soviet Union had 51 million inhabitants, while in 2022 it had 44 million, a loss of 15%.

Ukraine's demographic collapse is explained, among many reasons, by its sustained growth crisis. Since its inception (1991), Ukraine has spent more time in recession than in positive territory.

In other words, both due to its material conditions and the damage inflicted on the country by the Russian OME, Ukraine is on the verge of becoming a failed country, at risk of an irrecoverable governance crisis that is institutional, sociopolitical, and socioeconomic. The country must channel the necessary conditions to secure aid, reconstruction, and foreign investment.

Russia also does not want a perpetual state of collapse in the neighboring country's territory. That would be an affront to its internal security. Furthermore, Russia also wants to regain Ukraine as part of its traditional economic space.

The variable of sanctions against Russia reappears once again. A scenario of détente, in theory—and under the leadership of the Trump administration—would mean a de-escalation of pressure against the federation. But the Russians are not desperately clamoring for this; on the contrary, they have been defiant, pointing out that certain actions in response to the harassment benefited their domestic industry.

A scenario of US sanctions being lifted is very encouraging for Russia, and it also represents an opportunity for Trump's strategy. But obstacles persist on the European side of the conflict. Europe is tending to deepen its policy of cutting ties with Russia and has created policies to avoid purchasing Russian energy goods and hydrocarbons in the future. However, a scenario of sanctions being lifted would revive pragmatism among European companies, and some will likely reject policies of disengagement from Russia.

There are many economic incentives for peace, but they have not been decisive so far.

Feasibility factors and an open ending:

Overall, the peace negotiations in Ukraine have been clearly hampered from multiple perspectives. High-sounding statements, multiple pressures, and the military context itself limit the prospects for agreement.

There are two extremely significant events worth noting. The first was the drone attack on Vladimir Putin's helicopter during his visit to Kursk. The second is the attack, also carried out by Ukraine using drones, on several strategic aircraft belonging to Russia's nuclear triad.

Putin has been a target of Ukraine since 2022, with potential failed attacks announced several times and the possibility of assassination looming.

But in terms of military risk, Ukraine crossed a dangerous red line by targeting Russia's nuclear defensive and deterrent capabilities, as envisaged in the new and existing (2010) Start Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty).

Under this rule, Russia visibly displays a certain number of its operational aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons for satellite verification, in compliance with the treaty. However, the Ukrainian attacks temporarily compromised Russia's strategic security and achieved a highly significant and symbolic military coup.

Given their context, these acts are completely linked to a boycott—through force—of the negotiations, and were perpetrated by Ukraine with Western support. This constitutes a major weakness in the United States' seemingly pacifist strategy; they simply cannot—or do not wish to—control all the bellicose factors on the ground.

In another order of ideas, the persistence of immovable by the parties compromises the entire process.

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The difficult process in Istanbul has made minimal progress, but it is the best window of opportunity for peace between Russia and Ukraine (Photo: RT)

Russia has a military, tactical, and strategic advantage, so it has a greater chance of achieving gains with few concessions.

Russia has clearly shown it will not yield to pressure, as exemplified by the fact that Ukraine, European countries, and even the United States had imposed a "ceasefire" as a condition for starting the talks in Istanbul. Russia did not sign it, and instead, the table is set in the Ottoman Empire, where those directly involved in the conflict have flocked amid severe Russian retaliation against its neighbor. The pace of Ukraine's demolition is outpacing the roadmap of agreements on the table.

On the other hand, Ukraine loses militarily, losing military and financial support from the United States, having fewer opportunities for negotiation due to the shift in Washington's policy, and being backed by actors who negatively impact the peace process—European states—but who do not guarantee the conditions for victory on the ground—pushing it to fight without giving it definitive conditions for victory.

This strategic disadvantage will force Ukraine to compromise on a very costly agreement, if they decide to sign it.

In this regard, it is important to highlight the current and overall situation, which would force Ukraine to accept a painful peace agreement.

Continued war could lead Ukraine, its state, and its nation, to a level of absolute dysfunction if the United States decides not to continue paying the bills. The present risk is a further deterioration of the country's material conditions, but in the long term, conditions will point to a loss of Ukraine's very existential status. This artificial country, a product of the turbulent post-Soviet dynamics, could disappear in its current state form.

Another highly possible scenario, if the situation continues, is a reengineering of power in Ukraine due to the exhaustion of the country's political infrastructure, either through an institutional breakdown if Zelensky perpetuates himself as an obstacle to peace, or through a change of leadership once the West lets go of the aforementioned hand, which will happen at some point.

While Ukraine and Russia have said they want to find conditions for peace, the challenge lies in establishing lasting and solid agreements. The process appears to be stalled, and the trend will not change until the path is cleared by removing some current immovable barriers.

Donald Trump has managed to embark on a failed and bumpy road, but a road map nonetheless. He has underestimated and superficially analyzed the variables of the conflict, clearly failing to fulfill his promise of achieving peace in "24 hours" or "100 days." The president has discovered that this critical juncture is not a New York strip bar , nor is it like buying a hotel.

For Trump, this issue represents a campaign promise and the execution of a less-than-orderly US withdrawal from a vital front in its hegemonic strategy. But for Russia, any framework of agreements is essential to its vital long-term strategic security. They will take nothing for granted; they have proven ready for many scenarios and expect very little from the West.

The possibilities leave only one ending open: either there will be peace very soon, or there may not be any for a long time.

https://misionverdad.com/investigacione ... -y-ucrania

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******
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Jun 28, 2025 11:57 am

Shevchenko, mineral resources and war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 28, 2025

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“At first glance, Shevchenko is just another village in Donbass. Within a 30-kilometer radius, three villages in Donetsk Oblast bear this name, which was also the name of the greatest Ukrainian-speaking Romantic poet of the 19th century,” wrote the French daily Le Figaro yesterday , reporting a story that was quickly picked up by all the media. In the maelstrom of recent weeks, with the news media almost entirely devoted to events in the Middle East, the US and Israeli attack on Iran, and the political and military implications it could have for other conflicts, the Ukrainian front has been reduced to news about Donald Trump's reaction to the limited progress in the negotiations and his “pleasant” meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky. The apparent hardening of the US president's stance, who during his brief visit to the NATO summit suggested a resumption of efforts to end the war, has not yet translated into further sanctions against Russia or the ultimatum that Ukraine and its European allies are eager to hear. Ukraine's current urgency is due as much to its economic difficulties as to its poor situation in certain areas of the front. Always keen to focus on good news, the Ukrainian military boasts of having halted the Russian offensive in Sumi, an attack that has always been limited and seeks only to anchor Ukrainian troops in the north and prevent Ukraine from having sufficient free troops and resources to launch a new offensive like the Kursk offensive a year ago.

The situation for Ukraine is noticeably more complicated on the main front, in Donbass, where, according to Oleksander Syrsky, Russia is concentrating 111,000 troops in the Pokrovsk-Krasnoarmeisk area. With his tactic of warning of danger and immediately downplaying the success rate of Russian troops, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine referred to the progress of Russian troops in Donetsk, where they have reached the administrative boundary with the Dnipropetrovsk Obast . "They are not doing this to achieve any operational results, but for primarily demonstrative reasons. To place a Russian soldier's foot there, plant a flag, and declare a pseudo-victory," Syrsky stated, despite the fact that the arrival in Dnipropetrovsk is a clear indicator of Russian progress toward achieving its main objective: the recapture of the entire territory of the Donetsk Obast.

“The news from 2025 is less literary,” writes Le Figaro in its report on Shevchenko. “By taking possession of this seemingly harmless village, located about ten kilometers from the small town of Velyka Novosilka, which fell last January, the Russians have seized one of Ukraine's most promising lithium deposits. White gold is one of the metals whose price has skyrocketed in recent years, as it has become an essential component of batteries manufactured for electric vehicles.” Less than two months have passed since Scott Bessent and Yulia Svyrydenko signed the mineral extraction agreement and barely a week since Ukraine launched the first tender linked to this common fund into which it will deposit half of the revenues derived from these mines. Media outlets, such as The New York Times , that reported on the first attempt to give Donald Trump the economic benefit he seeks from the war, pointed out the importance of the mineral to be extracted, lithium, but always failed to mention that the country's most important deposit was located in a dangerous location where Russian troops were trying to advance. On Thursday, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of the town of Shevchenko, home to one of Ukraine's largest known mineral deposits, a sure bet that contrasts with the uncertainty surrounding the existence of the rare earths that initially sparked the interest of the US President.

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“Russian forces have seized control of a valuable lithium deposit in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, depriving the country of a critical asset that could have helped support a new economic partnership with the United States,” The New York Times confirmed yesterday . “Although relatively small—covering only 100 acres—the deposit was considered by industry analysts to be one of Ukraine’s most valuable because of its rich concentration of lithium, a mineral essential for the manufacture of advanced technologies such as electric batteries. The United States considers lithium critical to its economy and national security,” the outlet described. Despite Ukraine’s attempt to downplay any Russian progress on the front, it is clear that the loss of economic assets is a problem for Ukraine, whose stability depends primarily on subsidies from its allies and therefore also requires its own resources to sustain its economy. “With no end to the war in sight, Ukraine’s economy is reeling,” The Washington Post headlined this week .

The site, “located outside the town of Shevchenko, west of Donetsk, was captured in recent days, according to battlefield maps from independent media outlets tracking Russian advances using geolocated combat imagery. Moscow’s troops seized it as part of its summer offensive, which has made steady gains across Donetsk,” The New York Times reported yesterday , presenting the offensive as a continuation of a slow-moving tactic of attrition and trench warfare that only slowed during the height of the operation to recapture Kursk.

The advance on Shevchenko, a capture Russia has not accelerated to deprive Ukraine of this military resource, occurs within the slow but steady advance that has marked the progress of this sector of the front for months. Drones have turned Donbass into a front where the danger for soldiers and any type of vehicle is constant, both on the separation line itself and several kilometers away. And although casualties remain the best-kept secret on both sides, everything indicates that the losses are significant. In the Chasov Yar sector where they are fighting, the squad commander of the 24th Separate Assault Battalion, Aidar, wrote this week that assault operations on all fronts, not just the Donbass front, are now primarily carried out by " busified" men , that is, those mobilized by force. Volunteers have disappeared, and this is the only way Ukraine is able to replenish its ranks.

During the NATO summit, the organization's Secretary General, Mark Rutte, announced, with a broad smile, the happy news that Ukraine will have a €50 billion military budget, a guarantee of being able to continue fighting. Funding has never been the problem in this war, in which European countries are willing to continue investing as long as it is useful to wear down Russia. Although the first attempt failed yesterday due to the refusal of countries like Hungary, the European Union will approve the 18th package of sanctions against Russia to defeat Moscow by military and economic means. But neither the Russian economic decline nor the continued funding can alleviate Ukraine's main shortage: personnel, something increasingly evident with kyiv's difficulties in replacing fallen soldiers, the source of the difficulties it currently faces on the front lines.

“On the portion of the front held by the former Ugledar tactical group, the defense continues to crumble rapidly, and the enemy is advancing by leaps and bounds,” DeepState admitted yesterday . However, with the lack of interest in the military struggle in a war so fortified that advances are practically meter by meter, the media prefer to focus on the issue of resources. This is also how they are explaining the loss of Shevchenko, which is not framed by Ukraine's difficulties in containing the Russian advance, but rather by concern over lost economic opportunities. “The Trump administration has sought to exploit Ukraine's vast lithium reserves, some of the largest in Europe, through a recently signed historic agreement that grants it first-hand access to the country's mineral wealth,” writes The New York Times , adding that “the capture of the Shevchenko deposit highlights a fundamental challenge to the agreement: The more territory Russian forces conquer in Ukraine, the fewer resources Kyiv can offer Washington.” "If Russian troops advance further and capture more and more territory, they will control more and more mineral deposits," the outlet quotes Mikhail Zhernov, director of Critical Metal Corp., "a US company that held a license to exploit the Shevchenko deposit." "It's a problem for this agreement," he adds. The constant death that comes with the continuation of the war, the deterioration of the country, or the loss of its most important resource, its population, is less important than not having the mineral resources available to the United States.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/28/shevc ... la-guerra/

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Someone is deliberately putting descendants of Nazis in leadership positions in the West, said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.

This is how she commented on British media reports that the grandfather of the new head of British intelligence, Blaise Metreveli, was a Nazi collaborator from Chernigov, nicknamed the Butcher, during World War II.

" The trend is clearly neo-Nazi: Friedrich Merz, Annalena Baerbock, Chrystia Freeland, Salome Zarubisvili . Now we can add MI6 chief Blaise Metreveli to them ."

(Indeed, it seems something stinks, or is this a class issue?)

***

Colonelcassad
SITUATION IN THE SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION

In the area of ​​responsibility of the 29th Army :

After the liberation of Yalta , the Transbaikalians advanced along the forest belts southwest of the settlement up to two kilometers deep and up to a kilometer along the front. The assault troops also began to destroy the isolated enemy southwest of Zaporozhye . During the day, they captured a fortified stronghold and one of the forest belts in the defense area up to a kilometer deep and more than one and a half kilometers along the front.

In the area of ​​responsibility of the 36th Army :

There is an advance south of Karl Marx , conditions are being created for entering the settlement. Advancement along four forest belts in this area is reported.

In the area of ​​responsibility of the 5th Army :

Efforts are focused on increasing the resilience of the Shevchenko defense . Assault groups are expanding the control zone along the enemy's anti-tank ditch north of the settlement. Also occupied is part of the territory to the west of Shevchenko in the direction of Kamyshevakha .

In other areas the situation has not undergone significant changes.

***

Colonelcassad
Chasov Yar – the end is near

The assault on the city by Russian troops continues in the area of ​​the Chasovyar fortified area. Although the situation is difficult, our units are gradually liberating the city. Most of Chasov Yar is under our control.

The fighting has shifted to the central part of the Shevchenko and Levanevsky microdistricts. There, our troops managed to clear several blocks of private housing. Several streets in the Shevchenko microdistrict remain under enemy control.

Our troops partially occupied the eastern edge of the forest west of Chasov Yar, having advanced slightly toward Nikolaevka.

In the south, fighting is underway for the village of Stupochki, where our troops managed to advance to the northern outskirts. The village itself is not as tactically important as the heights to the west, from which it is possible to develop movement along the N32 road to Konstantinovka.

In fact, it can be stated that the city as such has fallen. The difficult air situation is currently preventing us from establishing full control – the 427th BPS Regiment “Rarog” dominates the air. Because of this, every house is difficult to get.

Also, the enemy has an excess of ammunition and began shelling Bakhmut, which has not been seen for a long time. Nevertheless, slowly but surely, our units are moving in the western direction. Not as fast as we would like, but still, the front line is moving west.

@rusich_army

***

Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of the SVO from June 21 to June 27, 2025.

On the night of June 27, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a group strike with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and UAVs, on the infrastructure of the Starokostiantyniv military airfield in the Khmelnytsky region. From June 21 to 27, six group strikes were carried out, hitting military-industrial complex facilities, fuel and energy complex, ports, air defense radars, ammunition and fuel depots, arsenals, production facilities, UAV basing sites, airfields and deployment points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nationalists and mercenaries.

Force Grouping "North": Positions on the front line have been improved. Concentrations of manpower and equipment of five mechanized brigades, three airborne assault battalions, a ranger brigade, four assault regiments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two territorial defense brigades and the "Khimera" detachment (Sumy region) have been destroyed. Enemy losses: over 1,355 troops, 16 armored vehicles, 45 vehicles, 39 guns (2 Western), 2 EW stations, 10 warehouses.

Force Grouping West: Novaya Kruglyakovka and Petrovske (Kharkiv Oblast) were liberated. Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: over 1,410 troops, 2 tanks, 8 armored vehicles (including HMMWV, M113, Cobra II), 68 vehicles, 8 guns (2 NATO), 17 EW stations, 26 warehouses.

Force Grouping South: Dyleevka (DPR) was liberated. Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: over 1,190 troops, 1 tank, 5 armored vehicles (including M113), 26 vehicles, 15 guns (2 Western), 4 EW stations, 15 warehouses.

Force Grouping Center: Novosergeevka (DPR) liberated. Advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: up to 3,295 troops, 1 tank, 29 armored fighting vehicles (including 2 Bradley, 4 M113, 3 HMMWV), 42 vehicles, 23 guns (2 NATO).

Force Grouping East: Zaporizhia, Perebudova, Shevchenko and Yalta (DPR) liberated. Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: over 1,360 troops, 2 tanks, 12 armored fighting vehicles, 38 vehicles, 15 guns, 3 EW stations.

Force Grouping Dnipro: Formations of a mechanized brigade, a mountain assault brigade and two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed. Enemy losses: over 520 soldiers, 1 armored fighting vehicle, 58 vehicles, 8 guns, 23 electronic warfare and counter-battery stations, 18 warehouses.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

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*****

Brief Frontline Report – June 27, 2025
Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 27, 2025

Report from the Russian Ministry of Defense: Units of the "West" group of forces have liberated the settlement of Novaya Kruglyakovka in Kharkov region through decisive combat operations. Russian troops continue advancing in the difficult Senkovo-Borovaya-Zelenyi Gai sector.

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ЛБС 20.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 20th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The small village of Novaya Kruglyakovka (spelled "Kruhlyakovka" on the map, population approximately 70) is strategically located on the right bank of the Lozovaya River, forming part of the Ukrainian defensive line at Senkovo-Borovaya-Zelenyi Gai that covers river crossings to the right bank of the Oskol River. Our forces have reached the Oskol River and now control the bridge at Senkovo-Kruglyakovka, as well as key railroad and highway routes connecting the Kupyansk and Izyum operational directions.
The enemy considered the Kruglyakovka-Lozovaya sector to be a weak point in our defensive positions south of Kupyansk. The Ukrainian command planned converging attacks from Kurilovka-Kuzemovka and Borovaya-Zelenyi Gai-Kuzemovka with the goal of encircling our forces in Kruglyakovka through deep envelopment, reaching the Zherebets River line and cutting off the Kupyansk direction from Izyum. This would have allowed them to secure crossings over the Oskol Reservoir and restore lateral communications along the railroad and highway network.

Through offensive actions in the Kolodezi-Redkobub-Petrovskoe (Grekovka) area, our command constrained the enemy's initiative while creating a possibility of ours breaking through toward Rubtsy-Oskol. This forced Ukrainian forces to redeploy their reserves to the left bank of the Oskol River in the Oskol-Borovaya sector and take up defensive positions south of Borovaya.

The liberation of Novaya Kruglyakovka represents an expansion of our salient's left flank to the Borovaya-Borovskaya Andreevka-Zelenyi Gai line, further strengthening our operational position in this sector.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ne-27-2025

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Only a fuhrer can save us: military update

'We are destroying ourselves'. 'We see the noose tightening'. Azov rising, desertion and mobilization statistics, military intrigues.
Events in Ukraine
Jun 27, 2025

The latest poll shows that over 70% of Ukrainians want an end to the war without reclaiming territories taken by Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s top military personalities are debating how to best reform the army to continue fighting.

In today’s post, we’ll begin by taking a look at how the nazi warriors of Azov have continued being presented by liberal, western-funded media as the only forces capable of saving the Ukrainian army. Important, given the recent predictions by NATO officials on the ‘stressful and difficult summer’ ahead of the country’s military.

This includes diatribes by top militarists and Azovites how ‘we are destroying ourselves like true Ukrainians’ due to constant commands to go on bloody, impossible offensives by incompetent generals. We will also go into the recent post by POW-killer Ryan O’Leary on why he has decided to dissolve his ‘Chosen Company’ of international mercenary ‘volunteers’. Naturally, the deadly indifference of Ukrainian command is to blame.

Our second topic is personnel changes. Top generals claim another victory over a popular and recently-dismissed commander. And a translation of an older article on the corrupt past of Robert Brovdi, who has been hailed by both Russian and Ukrainian military commentators as the wunderkind capable of saving Ukraine’s drone divisions. Back in the day, Brovdi was involved in a remarkable corruption scheme that took place alongside mafiosi figures close to then-president Viktor Yanukovych - the ‘pro-Russian’ leader Ukrainian nationalists love to hate:

It turned out that after receiving $1.5 billion, the Corporation supplied only $153 million worth of agricultural products to China. With the rest, Brovdi bought grain which he then resold at huge profit to Ethiopia, Monaco, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kenya, Switzerland, Egypt and even Syrian rebels. The proceeds from these operations were funneled to shell companies.

Finally, desertion and mobilization. Fresh statistics, beatings, and testimony on how the army is now filled with unmotivated ‘busified’ forcibly mobilized troops. All the volunteers have been used up.

(Paywall with free option at link.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... s-military

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Ukrainian scammers organized a collection to strengthen the "Iron Dome"
June 28, 8:22

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Ukrainian telephone scammers took advantage of the two-week conflict between Israel and Iran and stole $80,000,000 from Israelis. Over 12 days, the scammers called for $80,000,000, offering salvation from Iranian missiles.

https://t.me/botcharov/14925 - zinc

Self-sufficient news.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9925023.html

Google Translator

*****

Storming the botanical reserve and attacking Dolgenkoe
June 28, 2025
Rybar

In the second ten days of June, Russian troops fought on the northern flank of the Kupyansk direction . During a series of attacks, they managed to "cut off" the Ukrainian Armed Forces' penetration between Figolovka and Krasny Pervy .

To the south, the attack aircraft made significant progress towards Dolgenkoye , pushing the enemy back from two forest areas southeast of the village.

More details about the progress of the fighting in the area (Video at link.)

By June 14, assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces eliminated the penetration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the positions of the Russian Armed Forces between Krasny Pervy and Figolovka .

As a result, the territory of the Krasny botanical reserve , where the enemy had previously placed several well-defended positions, came under the control of Russian troops.

At the same time, Russian units, in a series of attacks along the T-21-14 highway, advanced more than two kilometers northwest of Dvurechnaya .

By June 20, two forest areas came under their control, consolidation of which would allow them to develop an offensive towards Dolgenkoye and Putnikovo .

It is worth noting that the Kupyansk direction has been receiving little media coverage for a long time, both from the media and from the units fighting here. This suggests that the real scale of the Russian Armed Forces' advance may be much larger.

https://rybar.ru/shturm-botanicheskogo- ... dolgenkoe/

Google Translator

****

Thin gruel today.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Jun 29, 2025 12:54 pm

Guardians of nationalist memory
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 29, 2025

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“29 years of the democratic and people's Constitution of Ukraine. It is a symbol of our state, of the struggle for freedom, of history, and of independence. I salute the true defenders of the Constitution: the soldiers and all Ukrainians who, with their own strength and resources, preserved our state. We will win,” Andriy Ermak wrote yesterday to commemorate the 1996 Constitution, amended according to the needs of the political families in power at certain times. The last one, weeks before an election that Petro Poroshenko knew he could not win, took place in 2019. It was then that he introduced in his preamble Ukraine's irreversible Euro-Atlantic path to definitively abandon the neutrality that had marked the first two decades of independent Ukraine.

“Our people are writing the pages of history and filling the pages of the Constitution with life. With their example, their deeds, and their exploits. All of them are doing more than their constitutional duty demands. They act not because the law demands it, but because of the call of their hearts. Precisely for this reason, we will unreservedly defend our inalienable right to independence. The right to live in peace in a free Ukraine,” Zelensky wrote, also highlighting the first word mentioned in the first article of the Magna Carta: Ukraine. “And this reflects our ultimate goal, our mission. Ukraine is, and will be, on earth. Ukrainians are, and will be, on earth. This is both our goal and our common duty. It is the mission of all for whom Ukraine truly comes first: of those who cannot imagine their life without Ukraine, and without whom Ukraine can no longer be imagined,” the president stated, bordering on the mysticism of a utopian Ukraine that bears little resemblance to what has happened over the past eleven and a half years.

On Constitution Day, Ukraine sought to focus its discourse on the idea of ​​unity, ignoring the fact that a portion of the country had opted years ago to look to Moscow for protection and had left, taking the territory with it, with no intention of returning. Their inalienable right to live in freedom had been usurped by the obligation to be Ukrainian and to do so in a way that conformed to a new definition of the country and what was expected of its population. From the first moment of the Maidan victory, with the overthrow of Yanukovych and the absolute chaos that plunged the country for weeks, it was clear that the new Ukraine was burdened with a nationalist agenda that quickly caught the attention of the portion of the population that rejected this drift. To verify this thesis, we had to wait only 24 hours after the vote of no confidence in which, under pressure from the far right and failing to secure the necessary votes, the pro-Maidan parties twisted the Constitution to proclaim regime change. The first proposed legislative measure, so controversial at the time that it was ultimately vetoed by de facto President Oleksandr Turchynov, targeted language, one of the three key areas through which governments in Kyiv have managed since 2014 to change Ukraine's social fabric and institutionalize nationalist discourse as a national discourse.

To do so, no amendments to the Constitution were required, celebrated when it was necessary to highlight Ukraine's independence and democracy, but ignored when its terms do not correspond to the interests of the current elites. “Today is Ukraine's Constitution Day, Article 10 of which guarantees the protection of the Russian language,” wrote historian Marta Havryshko yesterday, whose mother tongue is Ukrainian, but whose son suffered retaliation in kindergarten for speaking Russian. “Let's take my hometown, Lviv, as a clear example of how this works in practice today,” she added, explaining that there isn't a single school left (not even primary school) where a child can be educated in Russian. No school offers Russian as a subject. None even allows it as an elective. In some schools, there are “language patrols” who intimidate displaced children from Donbas during recess for speaking the “wrong” language. You won't find a single bookstore that sells books in Russian. Not even books published in Russian, but translations from Ukrainian to Russian. None. Academics are prohibited from citing Russian-language sources in their academic works. Common vigilantes and self-proclaimed patriots harass Russian-speaking Ukrainians, calling their language “the language of pigs and dogs” or “the language of the enemy.” Russian speakers are occasionally attacked in public spaces, including hospitals.

In 2014, the rejection of a substantial portion of the population and a warning from Vladimir Putin made it impossible for Turchinov to sign the law that withdrew protection for the Russian language, which is still the dominant language in a significant part of the country. The language issue continues to loom as an argument against Russia, a tool against the population of the east, or a weapon in accusations of collaborationism . The demand to abandon the use of the Russian language was one of the causes of the death of the radical Irina Farion, murdered outside her home by a follower of the Azov movement, a native of the Russian-speaking center and east of the country and a frequent target of the philologist's criticism. Unlike the rest of the population, groups like Azov, in whose ranks—although not necessarily among their leadership—Russian remains the language used, have free rein to ignore the regulations with which the government seeks to gradually impose the Ukrainian language as the only acceptable language in the public sphere. The war, with its wave of nationalism in 2022, has been very useful for Ukraine in accelerating the imposition of these measures, all of which predated the Russian invasion.

The language issue is what most clearly demonstrates Maidan Ukraine's attempt to transform the country in a nationalist way, abandoning a conception of the state as ethnically diverse, the union of Russian- and Ukrainian-speaking provinces, territories originating from the Russian Empire, the Austrian Empire, or Poland, with the cultural differences that this implies, and with a very different vision of valuing the shared past with Russia and the Soviet Union. Replacing that country with one in which being Ukrainian is equivalent to being a nationalist implies intolerance for those who are different or suggestions such as the one Volodymyr Zelensky proposed to the population who felt Russian—culturally or politically—and whom he encouraged months before the Russian invasion to leave the country and move to Russia.

However, the nationalist reconstruction of Ukraine is not limited to the expulsion of the Russian language from public spaces and the attempt to force the population to renounce part of their culture and identity. Many aspects can be highlighted in this endeavor, although two undoubtedly stand out: the rewriting of historical memory in a nationalist vein and the rejection of any common element with Russia, both evidently linked to making Ukraine a Western country by nature and imposing an economic, social, cultural, and even familial barrier with the Russian Federation.

From those years of the Orange Revolution, three ideas began to be institutionalized as part of the government's discourse: the demonization of Soviet monuments—especially statues of Lenin, vandalized by groups linked to Svoboda throughout the country after the Maidan Revolution —the glorification of figures of interwar Ukrainian nationalism who fought against the Soviet Union in World War II, and the beginning of the real opening of a path toward Euro-Atlantic integration, especially NATO. All of these aspects, which have advanced unevenly since 2008, were present in the official state ideology before the Russian invasion.

In the case of the first two aspects—the nationalist rewriting of history, with the destruction of any reminder of a country where hatred of all things Russian was not the basis of culture, and the glorification of figures who fought against Moscow in the 20th century—the Ukrainian Institute of National Remembrance has emerged as the primary institution for erasing memory and replacing bad memories with ideologically correct ones. This was especially true during the reign of Petro Poroshenko, whose chief historian, Volodymyr Vyatrovich, even defended the banners of the SS Galizien Division, whose soldiers he considered heroes and fighters for Ukrainian freedom, claiming that they were not Nazi symbols.

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Along the same lines is the new guardian of memory, whose task will be to continue demonizing Russia and the hated Soviet Union. Yesterday, members of Azov and the Third Assault Brigade had two reasons to celebrate: the naming of one of their own, Holocaust denier Oleksander Ivantsov, as a Hero of Ukraine for his actions at Azovstal (before the split between Prokopenko's Azov and Andriy Biletsky's Third Army Corps), and the naming of another of their veterans as head of the Institute of National Remembrance.

“Today, the Cabinet of Ministers appointed Alexander Alferov, a former officer of the Third Assault Brigade, as director of the Ukrainian Institute of National Remembrance. An outstanding historian and scholar within the brigade, he served from the very beginning of the large-scale invasion and was head of the humanitarian training and information support group of the psychological support department. He made a significant contribution to personnel training for motivation and cohesion,” wrote the official Telegram channel of the Third Assault Brigade on Friday. This is the direct heir of the Azov Brigade formed by Andriy Biletsky in Kharkiv in 2014, which Avakov and Gerashchenko incorporated as a police battalion within the Ministry of Internal Affairs for use against the rebel population in Donbass, and of which Alferov was already a member at the time. The Third Assault Brigade's mention of its work in training personnel points to the Evhen Konovalets military school, established by the movement, where Azov has sought to promote his nationalist and far-right views in one of the state's most important institutions since the victory on Maidan: the army.

Over the years, serving as press officer for both Azov and Biletsky, Alferov has defended their leader from corruption charges and acted as one of the liaisons with the international far right. He has also been one of the figures charged with cleaning up the far-right movement's reputation. "In an interview with The Canadian Press , Alexander Alferov seemed tired of defending himself against accusations that the ultranationalist, all-volunteer paramilitary organization is riddled with neo-Nazis and radical white supremacists," wrote David Pugliese in a 2015 article in which he presented Alferov's work as an attempt to enlist Canada's help in "countering Russian propaganda" against Azov. "The perception that the Azov Regiment is neo-Nazi exists only in the international press," Alferov argued at the time. Having manipulated the present and forgotten the past, the international press has completely normalized both versions of Azov, including the Third Assault Brigade, which maintains, albeit modernized, the Wolfsangel that made it famous and whose awards are also inspired by Nazi symbolism.

In the same article, the veteran journalist also added that the current director of the Ukrainian Institute of National Remembrance justified the presence of Nazi symbols on the regiment by claiming they were Slavic symbols appropriated by Hitler's Germany. Nationalist memory and the rewriting of history are in good hands.

For years, the lack of electoral appeal of figures like Andriy Biletsky, Dmitro Yarosh, and Oleh Tyahnibok has been used as an argument to deny that Ukraine has a problem with the growth of the far right. The fact that their positions have become the basis of the national discourse contradicts this justification, as does the influence some of their figures have acquired in the country over the last decade. Armed, trained, and with military experience, even forming their own armies—both Biletsky and Prokopenko already have an army corps—the far right must be taken into account as an organized political force. The fact that people like Alferov are appointed to relevant ideological positions is just the icing on the cake, a reflection of the fact that there is no intention to minimize the influence of the most radical nationalist right, but rather to consolidate their presence in the state.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/29/guard ... ionalista/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
0:51
Lavrov drew parallels between German and Ukrainian Nazis.

"German Nazis burned Jews just because they were Jews, and Ukrainian Nazis burned Russian people in Odessa on May 2, 2014 just because they were Russian."

***

Colonelcassad
EVENING BELL:
a celebration of the passing day

- Vzzz! - an FPV drone flew by

to the left of the car, and I instinctively pulled my head into my shoulders. Another UAV overtook us on the right... There is probably no more terrible sound at the front than the exhausting buzzer of an old Soviet dental drill. It is with such a drilling buzz that a kamikaze drone goes on an attack, winding your nerves around your fist. That is why the familiar silhouette makes you react unconsciously even at the Ural proving ground, where I came to meet the developers of the legendary "Ghouls". Cheap (around 60 thousand rubles) guided munitions capable of burning enemy equipment worth tens of millions...

And it all started with blogging. The current CEO of the Uraldrone Plant, Vladimir Tkachuk, having visited Izyum in the summer of 2022, realized that you can do something more than just collect humanitarian aid for the front.
- The deliveries of American Bradleys, German Marders and other things to the Ukrainian Armed Forces had already been announced. We needed to think about what to burn them with. We recruited young guys, drone racers. We adjusted their consciousness. We needed to create not a racing drone, but a combat one. We started with a 28-square-meter basement.

And today we are sitting in a three-story "villa", where the design brain of the enterprise is located. Each floor has its own department: soldering, assembly, testing, scientific. From a garage get-together of four like-minded people, the project of the people's drone "Upyr" has grown into a large-scale production, where there is even a school for training operators.
Pilots capable of controlling any type of FPV drones leave from here to join the troops.

- How is the "Upyr" different from other Russian analogues?
We followed the T-34 principle - everything should be simple, reliable and soldier-resistant. Just try to break it, - the guys hand me a piece of the "fuselage".
I bend it this way and that - it refuses to break. There is no way to fight such a "crowbar" - who knows this if not the defenders, to whom the Ural "birds" even chirped "Abrams".

Happy Inventor and Innovator Day to all involved!

@sashakots

***

Colonelcassad
0:32
" He hates me": Slovakian PM sees no point in meeting with Zelensky

"It is very important to communicate at the government level, but my meeting with President Zelensky makes no sense, because he hates me, because I allow myself to express my own opinion about the war in Ukraine. I reproached him for robbing Slovakia of 500 million euros when he stopped the transit of Russian gas," Fico said.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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[b[Azov vs. Azov[/b]

'Criminal-style showdowns within the Azov movement are escalating.'
Moss Robeson
Jun 27, 2025

Two weeks ago, masked men attacked Major Andriy Korynevych, a recruitment officer from the Azov Brigade in the National Guard of Ukraine (NGU), and beat him in broad daylight near his home in Ivano-Frankivsk, western Ukraine. About ten days later, he dropped a bombshell: police identified his attackers and their accomplices, all of them from the Azov movement’s 3rd Assault Brigade (AB3). Furthermore, Korynevych suggested that the assault took place on the orders of Andriy Biletsky, the leader of the Azov movement, who he said is “closely connected” to the attackers. NGU Azovites are evidently furious—their unit published a statement denouncing the alleged assailants—and many AB3 Azovites are no less enraged at their counterparts’ betrayal, for going to the police and airing their dirty laundry.

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Some unapologetic Azovites from the 3rd Assault Brigade shared this meme, which turned an image of the attack into a mock advertisement for their unit
Clearly, the conflict is about much more than Korynevych, or else it probably would have stayed private. The situation apparently threatens to spiral into a sort of civil war in the Azov movement, evoking the violent feud that split the far-right Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) in World War II. I think the postwar conflict within the Banderite (OUN-B) faction is more relevant, but we’ll come back to that.

As a reminder, Andriy Biletsky was the founder and first commander of the Azov Battalion/Regiment in 2014, which grew into the Azov Brigade of today under the leadership of Denys Prokopenko (since 2017). Biletsky formally left the unit, but remained (more than!) its spiritual leader, and founded the National Corps and other groups that make up the broader Azov movement, which largely coalesced in the 3rd Assault Brigade under his command. As of this year, Prokopenko leads the 1st Azov Corps in the National Guard, and Biletsky heads the 3rd Army Corps, with the latter apparently still in formation. Since the full-scale Russian invasion, there have been some signs of tension between their units, but not enough to justify “pro-Ukraine” propaganda about the “depoliticization” of the NGU Azovites.

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Prokopenko (left—today is his 34th birthday) and Biletsky

Almost exactly two years before the attack on Korynevych, I wrote about “a potential rift” in the Azov movement, which until now seemed to have aged poorly. On Biletsky’s initiative, the “Support Azov” charity was established in mid-2022, but later changed its name after the newly upgraded NGU Azov Brigade launched “The One and Only” charity “Azov One” in early 2023. As somebody said recently, “‘Support Azov’ collects millions, and the [NGU] Azov fighters see zero. Has anyone noticed where the cache is disappearing?”

Until last September, the Azovite units shared a patronage service, “Azov’s Angels,” which grew out of the Azov Battalion and partnered with “Azov One.” Last September, the NGU Azov Brigade launched a separate patronage service, blindsiding the “Angels” and the rest of the movement. Dmytro Kukharchuk, one of Biletsky’s most prominent lieutenants, appeared to be talking about Prokopenko and his entourage when he reacted to this news: “the ambitions of certain individuals cannot be the reason for our oblivion.” Nowadays, Kukharchuk might be the most divisive figure in the Azov movement, who has said that the attack on Korynevych “looks like a provocation of enemy intelligence agencies.”

The only question — are they playing in the dark, or are they doing it consciously. Although it doesn't surprise me anymore. After:

statements of the command of the 12th Brigade in the world media against our unit

disruption of exchanges due to unauthorized departure from Turkey, contrary to agreements

apartments for 600 thousand euros on Novopecherskie Lipki — against the background of hundreds of homeless brothers

bullying of the wounded who could not get up from the trenches near Bakhmut, when we were called "the third mud"

outright spitting in the direction of the patronage service

I'm not surprised at anything anymore. The command of the [NGU] unit, which holds less than 10 kilometers of the front, hype on throwing mud at the [AB3] brigade, which holds sixty. They accuse top intelligence officers who have been fighting since 2014 of participating in a "special operation" against no-name [Korynevych], who is just someone’s driver without any combat experience. I believe in the decency of many in the NGU 12th [Azov] brigade. But those who tolerate such behavior have no right to call themselves either azovites or nationalists. Show yourself on the battlefield, not inventing provocations steeped in your wet fantasies. [My emphasis]


The “statements … in the world media against our unit” might refer to a March 2022 CNN article, according to which the NGU Azov leadership said it “appreciates and respects Andriy Biletsky … but we have nothing to do with his political activities and the National Corps party.” The “disruption of [prisoner] exchanges” is a quite serious accusation, because Kukharchuk is essentially blaming the NGU Azov leadership for the fact that hundreds of Azovites remain POWs; Prokopenko and others were supposed to remain in Turkey for the duration of the war after their release in September 2022. Last December, the news broke that Rinat Akhmetov, the richest man in Ukraine, purchased elite apartments for several NGU Azov commanders. This is the only scandal to plague the unit since 2022, and Kukharchuk twists the knife by contrasting their good fortune with the economic plight of rank-and-file Azov veterans. Perhaps most outrageous for the NGU Azovites, widely regarded as Ukraine’s most glorious fighters, is Kukharchuk’s statement, “Show yourself on the battlefield.” He also implies that Prokopenko and other famous NGU Azov officers “have no right to call themselves either azovites or nationalists.” At the same time, he seems to praise Korynevych’s attackers as “top intelligence officers.”

Others Biletsky loyalists have taken their gloves off, such as Serhiy Bevz, a former deputy commander of the NGU Azov Regiment (2016-19), who also led the Kyiv branch of the neo-Nazi paramilitary group “Patriot of Ukraine” (2006-10). “Gentlemen! It's time to call a spade a spade, not a convenient euphemism. Talks about a united Azov movement have long had nothing to do with reality. No matter how painful it is. No matter how shameful it is in front of those who have completed their earthly journey with dignity.”

A movement, as a phenomenon, presupposes the presence of certain signs. One of the key ones is loyalty to the leader. Both branches of the OUN declared their loyalty to [OUN founder] Konovalets after the split. And this is the main difference between what happened 85 years ago and what is happening now. Now the “revolutionary youth” [—this is a reference to the Banderites, which called themselves the “revolutionary” faction—] has denied the authority [of Biletsky] and is trying to devalue everything that Konovalets did and is doing in the twenty-first century. … I think it is absolutely clear to anyone who knows how to analyze who is the Konovalets of the twenty-first century and who is Bandera, who staged a mutiny in the Organization (movement) while Konovalets was alive.

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Earlier this month, Azovites from both camps paid respects to Yevhen Konovalets for the 134th anniversary of his birth. In this image, platoon commander “Toten” leads a ceremony for the 3rd Assault Brigade, with the slogan of the Nazi SS tattooed on his arm (which is visible but not legible here)
Among other things, Bevz indirectly pushes back against the March 2022 statement of the NGU Azov Regiment that it had “nothing to do with” Biletsky. According to him, “as a former deputy of Redis [the call-sign for Denys Prokopenko], I know that at least every Thursday he had a report to Andriy [Biletsky] on the state of affairs in the regiment.” When might this have ended? Bevz also reminds his followers that Biletsky allegedly organized the “attempt to de-blockade” Mariupol during the Russian siege of spring 2022 that transformed the NGU Azovites into Ukrainian superheroes, suggesting there is lingering resentment that Biletsky does not get enough credit or respect for his behind-the-scenes role in the unit and defending the city. Perhaps most importantly, the battle for Mariupol transformed Prokopenko into the greatest military commander in Ukraine, at least in the eyes of his loyal fighters. But many of them have moved on to the 3rd Assault Brigade, and in the meantime, some Azovites have gone in the opposite direction, so it will be interesting to see if there are major defections from either side.

(Video at link.)
3rd Assault officer "Dock" (more about him later) shared the above videos on Instagram yesterday. The second clip shows fictional Mafia boss Tony Soprano superimposed over footage of the attack on Korynevych: "I see some guy walking down the street with a clear head. You know the type, his always fucking whistling, like the happy wanderer. I just want to go up to him and rip his throat open. I want to fucking grab him and pummel him for no reason, why should I give a shit if a guy's got a clear head? I should say 'good for you.'"
Meanwhile, prominent NGU Azovites have also weighed in on the situation, accusing their counterparts of being corrupted by the “Russian criminal world.” Apparently Prokopenko’s wife Kateryna even labeled those from the 3rd Assault Brigade as “bandits,” which evokes the use of “Banderite” as a pejorative. In return, she has been accused of being a corrupt pro-LGBT activist, which reminds me of OUN leaders accusing each other of marrying Jewish women at the height of their quarrels.

Of course, the Azov movement has always harbored criminals. This is partially why the conflict reminds me of the postwar split in the OUN-B (just as likely instigated by western intelligence agencies as their Soviet counterparts) more than its wartime feud with the OUN-M. Stepan Bandera, the spiritual leader of the Banderites’ Ukrainian Insurgent Army, was a fascist control freak who insisted on remaining the movement’s dictator, whereas many of his longtime comrades became fed up with him, and they wanted to adopt a new strategy of appealing to western powers with a superficial “liberal” makeover. For Bandera, this was unacceptable, and yet, some of the top “reformers” were even bigger Nazi collaborators and war criminals than Bandera and his people — and there are still plenty of high-ranking neo-Nazis in the NGU Azov Brigade. Framing either conflict as “moderate” vs. “extremist,” or “law-abiding patriots” vs. “criminal thugs,” is misleading—“pragmatic Nazis” vs. “uncompromising Nazis” is more like it. (Guess which ones the CIA preferred?) And of course, both sides now question the others’ right to call themselves “Ukrainian nationalists.”

Whereas Bandera and company accused his postwar rivals of turning into “neo-Marxist CIA stooges” during the Cold War, a neo-Nazi officer from the 3rd Assault Brigade, “Dock” (who co-stars in the Azovite propaganda film “We Were Recruits”), says “it will be clear who is for the idea of the nation, and who is on the dick of Soros.” He writes, referring to the NGU Azovites who have formed an alliance with the “Sorosites” (western-funded NGO activists, or so-called “liberal nationalists”) in Ukraine, “all who support LGBT are enemies of our country and are subject to destruction.” At the same time, the head of the openly neo-Nazi “Neptune” squad in the NGU Azov Brigade, who also serves as first deputy commander of the training battalion of the Azov Corps and played a role in creating the 3rd Assault Brigade, remains loyal to Prokopenko. As he sees it, “after the attack, there were two options.”

The first was to eliminate the attackers, which would have led to an escalation of the conflict, revenge, and most likely an armed confrontation within the movement. The second is to act within the framework of the law, for which we are all publicly fighting. The second path was chosen, and I consider it a manifestation of responsibility. The public announcement of the attack is a chance to stop the catastrophe. This is an opportunity for the movement to recover, to analyze what should not have happened in the first place. The next time it will not be about fractures, but about deaths, and then the point of no return will be passed.

The neo-Nazi paramilitary group “Centuria,” more or less the spiritual successor of “Patriot of Ukraine,” and the real “revolutionary youth” of the Azov movement, of course are standing by Andriy Biletsky, the head of their “family.” Furthermore, they “are extremely disappointed with the unmanly behavior of the representatives of the [NGU Azov] unit from which their older brothers came.” Meanwhile, a prominent ideologist affiliated with the 3rd Assault Brigade writes, “Chiefdom [Vozhdyzm] is an integral part of our ideology.” This refers to the cult-like “Leadership Principle” that the OUN cribbed from Nazi Germany. As Marta Havryshko commented, “Once upon a time, the Führer was Bandera. Now it’s Biletsky. Just the kind of boys Europe can’t wait to welcome into their living rooms.” Leave it to a historian to notice, “Criminal-style showdowns within the Azov movement are escalating.”

https://azovlobby.substack.com/p/azov-vs-azov

******

Fires near the Dnieper
June 28, 2025
Rybar

« Interview with the Governor of Kherson region Volodymyr Saldo »

Against the backdrop of a difficult situation in the region, Governor Volodymyr Saldo spoke about the current situation in the Kherson region, highlighting a wide range of issues from sabotage to the fight in the information space.

What difficulties does the Kherson region face?
Arson and drones: the enemy is using artillery less and less, preferring pinpoint strikes with FPV drones. The farmland of the liberated left bank of the Dnieper has become a target — the destruction of crops is being carried out according to a methodology similar to the actions of the US in Vietnam. According to Saldo, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are “no longer fighting the military, but crops and civilians.”

Saboteurs and recruitment: the so-called Ukraine is actively looking for agents among local residents, the main motive for those willing to cooperate with the enemy is money. At the same time, Saldo noted that Russian special services are also effective in combating agents.

Fear and disinformation in occupied Kherson: the enemy is conducting an information campaign, frightening residents with the return of the city under Russian control. They are demoralized by claims that people "will not be given passports and citizenship."

Radio warfare and communication channels: despite the "jammers", Russian radio stations continue broadcasting: the signal can be heard in Kherson, Nikolaev, Odessa. Operational information is received in other ways - "through channels that are better not to talk about out loud."

Also interesting is Vladimir Salddo’s thesis that during the SVO, the special services in the region adapted to the threats and today “work methodically and professionally, not allowing for serious failures.”

The economic terrorism of the Ukrainian Armed Forces against the left bank of the Kherson region is a natural thing: due to the inability to capture the region, the enemy focused on making life as difficult as possible for the local population , even to the point of starting forest fires.

At the same time, income difficulties, as has been rightly noted, create an environment for recruitment by the enemy. Eliminating the cause of the problem in the frontline region is not an easy task given all the realities, but it must be solved.

And it is possible to completely protect the residents of the left bank of the Kherson region from shelling and UAV terror in the same way as Donetsk was previously saved from artillery attacks - by moving back the front line with the liberation of Kherson and other cities.

Yes, this is not an operation that can be carried out right now, but sooner or later the issue will become very relevant. Especially since the right bank of the Kherson region is legally a part of Russian territory occupied by the enemy.

https://rybar.ru/pozhary-u-dnepra/

New ammunition for attacks on the rear
June 28, 2025
Rybar

Today, Ukrainian resources reported that the Russian Aerospace Forces used a high-precision guided air munition against a facility in Dnepropetrovsk, located more than 100 km from the front line.

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On the one hand, the Russian Armed Forces often strike targets in the city, sometimes even with objective control from UAVs. However, previously, strikes were carried out with cruise or ballistic missiles, not aerial bombs.

According to the enemy, Russian troops used one of the modifications of the Grom product, which is sometimes called a “rocket bomb” on the Internet. It has a modular design and can be equipped with a jet engine to increase the range of operation.

Image

Regardless of what exactly flew into the Dnepropetrovsk area, the situation confirms progress in the creation of high-precision weapons, when pre-war products underwent a certain reworking in the realities of the SVO and were introduced into production.

This also points to the importance of expanding the range of ammunition, when tactical aircraft can hit targets at a distance of more than a hundred kilometers from the launch site, which was previously only possible for strategic bombers.

And in general, all this once again illustrates the role of aviation in conflicts, which, with sufficient numbers of aircraft, characteristics and training of flight personnel, can provide a decisive advantage over the enemy. This is what we should strive for.

https://rybar.ru/novyj-boepripas-dlya-udarov-po-tylam/

Google Translator

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Another F-16 shot down
June 29, 12:56

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During a massive night raid on Ukraine (more than 500 drones + more than 50 missiles of various types), as a bonus, another F-16 fighter was shot down, which tried to shoot down the "Geraniums". The plane ambushed our fighter and shot it down with a long-range air-to-air missile. The pilot, a lieutenant colonel of the Ukrainian Air Force, died. A good catch. The "Geraniums" acted as bait.

The enemy admitted the loss of the aircraft and the death of the pilot.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9926625.html

GoogleTranslator

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Brief Frontline Report – June 28, 2025
Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 28, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: Units of the "East" Group, through decisive action, have liberated the settlement of Chervona Zirka (Zvezda, in Russian, or "Krasnaya Zvezda," which means "Red Star") in the Donetsk People's Republic. This settlement is marked with a Russian flag.*

"Do not seek Chervona Zirka in the evenings."

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact

The Armed Forces of Ukraine had a defensive area in the interfluve between the Vovcha and Mokrye Yaly rivers, established in a highly advantageous defensive position, which was destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces within a week. The first of the three strong points in the area—the village of Zaporozhye —was liberated on June 21. The last, Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star), fell today, June 28!

On the opposite (left) bank of the river lies a horticultural settlement within the village of Tolstoy, where the AFU has established another defensive strongpoint. The Mokrye Yaly River, which separates Krasnaya Zvezda from Tolstoy in this area, is approximately 24 meters wide (across the floodplain) and 1 meter deep. Assault groups are crossing it under artillery and UAV cover. The day before, an airstrike using FABs was carried out on Tolstoy. According to intelligence reports, about a platoon of AFU militants deserted from this area—a sign of the poor morale among the defending enemy units, which appear to be staffed by mobilized citizens of "Nezalezhnaya" ("the independent," a mocking term for the Ukraine).

Reports are coming in about the elimination of a "pocket" north of the village of Alekseevka (colored in area). We previously marked this area on the map as a zone of active operations. More objective information is awaited.

To the south, our assault groups remain highly active: the enemy confirms problems south of the village of Mirnoye (K. Marx) and the advance of our units west of Shevchenko (liberated on June 26), with our forward detachments reaching the outskirts of Kamyshevakha.

Alternating efforts on the right flank, left flank, and center of the sector, combined with excellently coordinated command between adjacent military groups, allow the Russian Armed Forces to advance confidently and relentlessly toward the state border of the Russian Federation, pushing the enemy into Ukraine's Dnepropetrovsk Oblast.

Note from Mikhail:

"Do not seek Chervona Zirka in the evenings." - what does this mean?

There exists a Ukrainian folk song called "Chervona Ruta" ("Red Rue"). Rue is a mythical flower from the Carpathian mountains. The song contains the lyrics: "Chervonu Rutu ne shukay vecheramy", which translates to: "Don't look for Red Rue in the evenings."

My phrasing in the report - "Don't look for the Red Star in the evenings" - is a mocking alteration of these lyrics.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ne-28-2025
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Jun 30, 2025 11:47 am

Negotiating positions and false hopes
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ June 30, 2025

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Shaken by the resolution, at least temporarily, of the United States' aggression against Iran and by the way European countries have chosen to treat the NATO summit to achieve a single objective: pleasing Donald Trump, the last week has brought significant political and geopolitical positioning in view of a possible new diplomatic push for a ceasefire in Ukraine. "I know one thing. He would like to reach an agreement. He would like to get out of this. It's a mess for him. I said, 'Help me reach an agreement with you,' and I think we'll do it soon," Donald Trump said of Vladimir Putin during his visit to Europe for the express NATO summit. During the visit, the US president praised Volodymyr Zelensky, left open the possibility of continuing to send US military equipment to Ukraine, specifically the Patriot systems that the Ukrainian leader proposes kyiv acquire with the profits generated by Russian assets seized in the European Union, and was highly critical of Vladimir Putin.

Disappointment at the realization that a good relationship doesn't have to translate into an agreement that compromises the security of an entire country just as a personal favor to a more powerful leader is turning into a tougher stance toward Russia and a degree of solidarity with Ukraine. At the press conference, when asked by a Ukrainian journalist whether the United States would send air defense systems, Donald Trump responded by asking if he lived in Ukraine. "Wow. That's tough," Trump commented, responding to the question that her husband is fighting in the war. A visibly emotional Trump added, "We'll see if we can get some Patriot missiles to him."

Despite a successful week for Ukraine, which in just a few days secured a €50 billion military budget, future commitments from its NATO allies, Patriot missiles from the United States, a tailor-made tribunal to judge only Russian crimes, and even good words from Donald Trump, kyiv still hasn't achieved its main objective. "Russia must suffer the most painful consequences of blocking all diplomatic efforts and peace proposals, and of prolonging the war. EU sanctions, sanctions imposed by other G7 members, and sanctions imposed by other countries with which Russia has important ties—all of this must work at full capacity," Zelensky wrote. Ukraine's desire is twofold and goes beyond the imposition of coercive measures that undermine the Russian economy and punish the population for not rebelling against its government over the war. kyiv hopes for sanctions that will increase revenue for its already depleted public coffers. As Andriy Sibiha stated yesterday, "It's time to change strategy, from using the interest to directly using the assets and using the funds to arms for Ukraine." Ukraine reiterates its demand for the permanent seizure of Russian public and private assets frozen in the European Union, which have not been expropriated because it would involve litigation, in which Russia would have a strong chance of winning.

Despite the political, economic, and military pressures Russia is under, the Kremlin's position has not changed. Moscow and kyiv continue to carry out prisoner exchanges and hurl accusations at each other. Without explaining that Russian nationals—many of them far-right or neo-Nazis who fled to the refuge of Ukraine to avoid criminal charges for violent crimes in Russia—are fighting in the Armed Forces of Ukraine or in formations linked to Kirilo Budanov's GUR, Volodymyr Zelensky, in his appearance at the NATO summit, accused Russia of having sent some twenty bodies of Russian soldiers in the deliveries made in recent weeks. Zelensky prefers not to mention the remaining 6,000, a clear sign of the high casualties that Ukraine prefers not to admit or comment on. Ukraine, whose delegation in Istanbul has no authority to negotiate anything other than humanitarian issues, continues to complain about Russia's unwillingness to accept the terms being imposed, starting with a ceasefire with no clear path to subsequent political negotiations, which is too reminiscent of the string of failed ceasefire processes during the Minsk years.

In his latest statements, in which he confirmed something that has always been evident: that Russia intends to reduce its military spending after the war, and therefore poses no danger to the countries of the European Union or NATO, Vladimir Putin insisted on another obvious fact: that the Kyiv and Moscow memoranda for negotiation are completely opposed. In contrast to the naive optimism of people like Keith Kellogg, who simply aims to convince his boss, Donald Trump, that the perfect synthesis of both texts is the European and Ukrainian proposal, which requires Russia to accept the military presence of NATO countries as a guarantee of maintaining the ceasefire, the Russian view remains that a diplomatic process is necessary in which the parties address political issues. "As far as the memoranda are concerned, as expected, nothing surprising has happened... these are two absolutely contradictory memoranda," Vladimir Putin insisted in an appearance in Minsk, adding that, as a result, "negotiations are being organized and conducted in order to find a way to bring them closer together."

The distance between the starting positions and the relative strength of both sides—Russia through its own efforts and Ukraine thanks to the funding and diplomatic, military, and political support of its European allies—means that any negotiations that can finally address the causes and consequences of the war will be long, difficult, and tortuous. The dynamics of the front and the limits imposed on Ukraine by the proxy nature of the war, in which its allies are willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian but not commit their resources, mean that any diplomatic agreement under the current conditions would require kyiv to make significant concessions, which the Ukrainian government has always resisted. In this, Ukraine has the full support of European capitals, comfortable with the current war and willing to continue financing it. “Merz says he doesn't want to talk to Putin because Putin is increasing his attacks on Ukraine. This is the correct approach: the opposite of appeasement. So far, appeasement has produced no results,” wrote Timofey Mylovanov, Ukraine's first minister of economy and a frequent commentator on the war in Ukraine, yesterday, reflecting the general sentiment of the Ukrainian elite. Dialogue, for which no real option has yet been given, has achieved nothing, European authorities claim. The policy of sanctions and war to the bitter end, on the contrary, has managed to bleed Ukraine dry, allowing the war to escalate to its current level, and condemning the country to economic dependence on foreign countries for decades. That is the policy that must apparently continue.

The positions of Moscow, Kiev, and their European allies are clear. It only remains to be seen what the real position of the United States is at this point. On the one hand, Marco Rubio insisted last week on the counterproductive nature of implementing sanctions against Russia under the current conditions, such as those advocated by Lindsey Graham or the United States Senate, as they would discourage the Kremlin's participation in the negotiations. This comment contrasts with Washington's actions in the Middle East. Despite proclaiming themselves the living example of the "art of compromise," Donald Trump and his Israeli ally opted for a military attack when the negotiations dragged on and the United States knew it would not achieve the unilateral surrender agreement from Iran it was seeking. The unprovoked attack and the alleged destruction of Iran's nuclear program—that is Donald Trump's claim, which appears to be false—are now the hope for an agreement for European countries, whose objective was exactly the same as Washington's. Less interested in a deal with Iran, which they never really sought, White House officials are pinning that hope on negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Without explaining how Russia should understand the idea of ​​using the Iran-Israel model as a positive example to learn from, an emotional Steve Witkoff stated in an interview that “we hope this [Israel-Iran ceasefire] will serve as an example for Russia and Ukraine. They will see what happened in Iran and will want to participate in a similar peace process. Ideally, it will lead to real progress toward resolving that conflict.”

Witkoff may not be referring to the Iran-Israel example in the way European countries, who are using it to demand more US pressure against Moscow, or Ukrainian proxies, who are not-so-subtly encouraging Trump to bomb Russia, would like, but the lesson for the Kremlin is clear. The United States is willing to use every tool at its disposal to achieve its goals. Hence, the Kremlin continues to try to balance actions it knows upset Trump—such as yesterday's missile strike, one of the largest of the war in terms of missiles and drones used, although it caused no fatalities—with words aimed at the president's ego.

“We were not a respected country. Just a year ago, we had an incompetent president. We had bad people circulating around this desk, this beautiful, decisive desk,” Trump stated, emphasizing that now, the world once again respects the United States. Trump was referring specifically to the good things he had heard from Russia, whose spokesperson had insisted on the importance of keeping Washington involved in the negotiation process with Ukraine. Despite Trump's shifting stance, his complete lack of understanding of the conflict, and the uncertainty that comes with knowing he is capable of using military force if an agreement is not reached on his terms, for the Kremlin, the United States' position remains more constructive than that of European countries, which, despite talking about peace, remain focused on war as the only acceptable way to resolve the conflict.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/06/30/32507/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
According to German media, Germany has signed an agreement to finance the production of the An-196 Lyutyi kamikaze drone in Ukraine.

This decision was made as part of a new stage of military-industrial cooperation between Berlin and Kiev. Although officials have not disclosed the exact amount of the deal, it is worth millions of euros, which will go toward localizing assembly and scaling up production capacity within the country in conflict.

In essence, Germany is becoming a direct participant in the process of creating weapons used for deep strikes on Russian territory, which de facto expands its involvement in the conflict far beyond political or humanitarian support.

Technical appearance of the An-196 Lyutyi drone
The Lyutyi is a kamikaze drone of an aircraft design, created by Ukrainian engineers as a cheap analogue of a cruise missile. It has a wingspan of about 2.5 meters and a length of about 1.8 meters. It is launched from a pneumatic catapult or a guide rail, most often from mobile platforms.

The launch configuration weighs about 35 kilograms, of which up to 10 kilograms is the warhead. The charge type varies: from high-explosive fragmentation to cumulative. This allows the drone to be used against both manpower and warehouses, infrastructure and even lightly armored targets.
Flight speed is approximately 150-200 km/h. The main threat comes from its range - up to 700 kilometers, which allows it to attack targets deep in Russian territory, including rear airfields, logistics hubs and energy facilities.

The guidance system is combined: GPS, supplemented by an inertial module, and in some versions - even visual route correction based on AI. This makes the drone relatively resistant to electronic warfare.
The body is made of fiberglass and composites, with elements printed on a 3D printer, which significantly simplifies production and reduces the cost - this format of unmanned aviation is ideal for mass use and scalability in conflict conditions.

Military use
"Lyuty" is already actively used by Ukrainian forces to strike Russian territory. In 2024-2025, dozens of attacks with its participation were recorded. The main task of the drone is to overload air defense systems and deliver cost-effective strikes. Its price is significantly lower than that of any operational-tactical complex projectile, and the effect is quite comparable.

Geopolitical and strategic context
The agreement with Germany is a qualitative shift in the nature of Western support for Ukraine. If earlier Berlin acted as a supplier of air defense systems, artillery and armored vehicles, now it is investing in strike assets intended for attacks on Russian territory. As we have already noted, this is not about the transit of ammunition, but about the creation of production infrastructure on the territory of a warring state.
This step calls into question the statements about the "indirect participation" of Germany in the conflict. Germany is moving to a model of delegated strikes - it does not launch missiles from the Luftwaffe, but in fact finances the devices that strike Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Rostov.

This creates a dangerous precedent: a leading EU country with a Nazi past is participating in the deployment of strike production in the zone of active combat, effectively nullifying the previous doctrine of caution and neutrality. Diplomatic and legal fixation of Germany's participation as a sponsor of attacks on civilian and military targets on Russian territory is important.

In fact, Germany, which was previously
wary of even tank deliveries, is now investing in the serial production of drones for strikes against Russia - this could be a turning point in its role in the conflict.

@ano_cbst

Militarism and revanchism in all areas. We had the best relations with Germany when the Western Group of Forces was stationed on the territory of the GDR. It won't get any better.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/

Google Translator

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Strikes on Ukraine. 06/29/2025
June 29, 20:00

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The strike at night and in the morning was the most powerful in 2025.
More than 450 Geraniums and other types of drones were used + decoys + more than 50 missiles (Kinzhals, X-101, Iskanders, Kalibrs, etc.)
Targets in 14 regions of Ukraine were hit. Among them were the Kremenchuk and Dragobych oil refineries.

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The enemy also lost 1 F-16 (in addition to the main version about it being shot down by an air-to-air missile, there are also versions about a Geranium exploding near the F-16 and a Friendly Fire). In any case, minus one more F-16.

Such intensity of strikes leads to further depletion of the enemy's air defense and leads to an ever-increasing number of drone and missile hits.

It is also worth noting that FABs with UMPKs now reach Dnepropetrovsk (an important achievement of our military-industrial complex). Also today, Russian artillery shelled the outskirts of Sumy for the first time. The Giatsint self-propelled guns were practicing. Drones are already easily reaching the center of Sumy.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9927883.html

In the format of friendly communication
June 29, 17:58

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In the format of friendly communication

Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov said that contacts between the Russian Federation and the United States are continuing. According to him, contacts with the Trump administration are conducted in a friendly format.

Regarding the supply of weapons from the United States to Ukraine, Ushakov said that some are still continuing, but some supplies have already stopped. Ukraine is still receiving supplies related to the decision of Biden's entourage from December 2024, which, before Trump's arrival, allocated all the remaining money (from the money received from Congress) to Ukraine. The packages of weapons and ammunition have not yet been fully delivered. Trump only briefly blocked them, but later lifted the block and they were delivered to Ukraine as usual during the spring.

The main problem for Ukraine is the cessation of supplies of expensive air defense missiles for the Patriot air defense system. The recent exchange of strikes between the United States and Israel consumed a huge number of anti-missiles of various types. Plus, even before the attack on Iran, the United States transferred a huge number of missiles to the Middle East to combat drones. Hence the attempts not to receive, but to buy new Patriot air defense systems (PAC-3) and missiles for them. Europe can provide the money for the purchase (on credit). Trump, however, has not yet shown any desire to end the "easy honeymoon" with Russia and has avoided large arms deliveries to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. And this, despite assistance from Europe, narrows the possibilities of the Nazi regime in Kiev, although it is too early to talk about a complete end to its support from the United States.

As the example of Iran shows, there should be no illusions about the United States in general and the Trump administration in particular. The voiced threats to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation have not gone away.

P.S. And to top it all off. The United States lifted sanctions from the project to build a new nuclear power plant in Hungary. Orban agreed. For Rosatom, this is the second success in a month, after the lobbied decision to build a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9927485.html

About the situation in Chasov Yar. 06/30/2025
June 30, 11:11

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About the situation in Chasov Yar. 06/30/2025

In addition to the post of my dear comrade ( https://t.me/z_arhiv/31908?single ) regarding the situation on the Chasov-Yarsky sector of the front: what do we have today?

In the urban development of Chasov Yar (in particular, on the western outskirts of the Novoseverny microdistrict), the initiative is again with the Russian Armed Forces, previously the battles for this part of the city were with varying success, but now the units of the Russian Army have been able to thoroughly consolidate their positions. It was also possible to push through the enemy's defenses in the area of ​​​​the Dnieper pond (Zapadny and Tsentralny microdistricts) and occupy residential buildings, which will allow further offensive operations to be developed.

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To the south, in the area of ​​​​Stupochki and Shevchenko, positional battles and regular counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue, mainly by infantry units - in this section of the front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the ability to carry out logistics and rotation from the settlement. Krasnoye and Nikolayevka, which allows them to conduct such events, which, as a rule, end with the Ukrainian Armed Forces assault groups entering basements and then "smoking out" these assault groups by Russian Army units. The general forecast, based on the current pace of military operations - they will have to fight, if they do not close the logistics routes through the above-mentioned settlements of Krasnoye and Nikolayevka, which, in turn, come from the main logistics hub of the direction - Konstantinovka. Konstantinovka itself is actively preparing for defense, but a post about this will be a little later.

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To the north of Chasy Yara, in the area of ​​the settlements of Kalinovka and Grigorovka, units of the Russian Armed Forces continued the offensive, where from the Kalinovka side they managed to expand the bridgehead behind the "Seversky Donetsk-Donbass" canal, and from the Grigorovka side - to consolidate the eastern part of the above-mentioned canal. From the Grigorovka side, the main difficulty of the offensive is due to this obstacle, so the general themes of the offensive are not so positive, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces still have the ability to organize logistics through the settlement of Markovo, and also have an impressive number of strongholds and personnel in the area of ​​the settlement of Orekhovo-Vasilyevka to the northeast of Grigorovka. At the same time, the expansion of the bridgehead behind the canal allows the Ukrainian Armed Forces to stretch out their defense, which plays into the hands of the units of the Russian Armed Forces for further consolidation in the area in the Grigorovka area.

In general, extremely high UAV activity is noted in the direction, the enemy uses many hexacopters, and high artillery activity is also noted.

t.me/project_nd - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9928943.html

Google Translator

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️As a result of the night strikes
️As a result of the night strikes.

The oil refinery in the settlement of Drohobych in the Lviv region was hit by a massive strike of up to 100 Geran-2 UAVs, as well as up to 15 Kh-101 cruise missiles. As a result of the strikes, the facility was seriously damaged.

The Kremenchug oil refinery was also hit by a second strike, this time a finishing strike by more than 70 Geran-2 and 2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, as well as a group strike by an Iskander OTRK division.

The Lviv aircraft repair plant, where the enemy produced large UAVs, was hit by a group strike of Geran-2, Kh-101, Kalibr.

The final assembly site for large UAVs in the settlement of Smela, Cherkasy region, by a group strike of the Geran UAV and the Iskander OTRK.

The final assembly site of the UAV, Poltava, by a group strike of the Geran-2, the Iskander OTRK, the facility was well protected by air defense, so a finishing blow was subsequently delivered by hypersonic Kinzhal missiles.

The Nikolaev aircraft repair plant, where attack UAVs were produced, was hit by a massive strike of the Geran-2 and the Iskander OTRK.

In total, over 400 high-precision weapons of medium and long range were launched at the enemy's military infrastructure overnight.

As we said earlier, the rate of production allows for up to 3 such waves of strikes per week, no air defense will be able to contain such.

The Nazi state will be destroyed, and for this reason alone they absolutely must conclude any peace at any cost in the near future, of course, the allegedly peaceful intentions of the Ukrainians should not be trusted.

https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/06/29/1477868.html

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Ukrainians began organized resistance to military registration and enlistment office employees
Today
12:43

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Fight between TCC employees and women in Dnepropetrovsk. Photo: Politika Strany / Telegram

Ukrainians have begun to riot against military registration and enlistment office employees and "recapture" those mobilized, said Sergei Lebedev, coordinator of the Mykolaiv pro-Russian underground.

"This is not a revolution, ... but there are already riots, and they are visible to the naked eye. In residential areas, in the entrances, people are self-organizing: they set up patrols, they make sure that the TCC workers (employees of territorial recruitment centers) do not get through. As soon as they appear, a signal is immediately given, and people come out and resist. 20 people, or even more. Women, men - all together. In such situations, the TCC does not have a picture: it is not possible to suppress the crowd,"
— RIA Novosti quotes Lebedev.

According to him, there are more and more open conflicts between citizens and TCC employees, while the Kiev regime continues to portray as enemies all those who have not served and do not work for the army.

"The choice is simple: either you unite, or you will simply be erased,"
— added Lebedev.

Подробнее: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2025/06/29/ ... oenkomatov

Google Translator

Russia Hits Ukraine's Defense Industry Facilities With Kinzhal Missiles - MoD
12 hours ago

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© Sputnik / Evgeny Biyatov / Go to the mediabank

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The Russian armed forces struck Ukraine's defense industry facilities and oil refineries overnight with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday.

"At night, the Russian armed forces delivered a mass strike by air-, ground-, and sea-based long-range precision weapons, Kinzhal hypersonic ballisticmissile systems as well as unmanned aerial vehicles at Ukrainian defense industry and oil refineries. The goal of the strike was achieved. All the assigned targets were engaged," the ministry said in a statement.

The Russian armed forces took control of the village of Novoukrainka in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), the Russian Defense Ministry said.
"As a result of resolute and decisive actions, Battlegroup Tsentr liberated Novoukrainka (Donetsk People's Republic)," the ministry said in a statement.
Russia's Battlegroup Tsentr has eliminated over 400 Ukrainian soldiers over the past 24 hours, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

"The enemy's losses amounted to 400 servicepeople, a US-made М113 combat armored vehicle, one Kazak armored fighting vehicle, 15 cars and four field artillery pieces," the ministry said in a statement.

Russia's Battlegroup Zapad has eliminated up to 220 soldiers, while Battlegroup Sever has eliminated more than 190 Ukrainian soldiers, the ministry said, adding that Battlegroup Yug has eliminated up to 160 Ukrainian servicepeople.

Russia's Battlegroup Vostok eliminated up to 185 Ukrainian servicepeople and destroyed four field artillery guns, the ministry said.

Russia's Battlegroup Dnepr has eliminated up to 85 Ukrainian soldiers, nine motor vehicles, an electronic warfare station and an ammunition depot.

The air defense systems destroyed one long-range Ukrainian Neptune missile, 102 fixed-wing drones and an Israeli-made RADA counter-fire radar, the statement read.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20250629/russi ... 61732.html

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Crocus City Hall attack: kyiv was the mastermind, perpetrators confirm
June 29, 2025, 6:06 p.m.
Source: Sputnik The Crocus City Hall concert hall building, destroyed by fire during the terrorist attack on March 22, 2024.

Testimonies related to the investigation into the Crocus City Hall attack, which killed 149 people, suggest Kyiv's involvement as a mastermind. The defendants named a certain Saifullo as the coordinator. He allegedly identified the location of the attack and the escape routes to Ukraine, and promised a financial reward.

Ukrainian intelligence services are the organizers and sponsors of the terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall concert hall near Moscow, Russian media reported, citing documents from the case. One of the terrorists said that after the attack, Dalerjon Mirzoev and Shamsidin Faridouni, the perpetrators, sent a message to a coordinator named Saifullo, informing him that they had carried out the attack.

"I also learned during their conversation that Saifoullo told them that the sponsor of the terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall concert hall was a Ukrainian state structure," he noted.

According to the testimony of one of the four perpetrators of the terrorist attack, the accomplices were supposed to "go to the border between Russia and Ukraine and cross it." Saifullo then allegedly gave them further instructions to go to Kyiv, where they were supposed to receive one million rubles (approximately 10,800 euros) each from the attack's sponsors.

"I understood that we were being used in the interests of another country, Ukraine, which has nothing to do with the Islamic world, but which solves some of its problems on Russian territory by proxy. The members of the Daesh-Khorassan terrorist group were only the organizers of our actions at the request of the Ukrainian government structure, as Saifullo himself ultimately stated," the interrogation report states.

The defendants' testimonies also reveal that the perpetrators of the attack used a special narrative to make the public believe that the attack at Crocus City Hall was carried out exclusively in the interests of the Islamic State terrorist organization, and that the rapid identification of the terrorists would confirm this. Saifullo convinced the defendants that they had to help Ukraine because it was at war with Russia, which is the enemy of Muslims. The terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall concert hall near Moscow took place on the evening of March 22, 2024. Four terrorists opened fire with automatic weapons on civilians inside the building and set the venue ablaze. According to the Russian Investigative Committee, the tragedy left 149 dead and more than 600 injured. After the attack, the perpetrators attempted to flee to Ukrainian territory, but were detained in the Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine.

https://francais.rt.com/russie/122477-a ... rs-attaque

Google Translator

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‘Israel’s’ Aggression Against Iran Through the Prism of the Conflict in Ukraine
Posted by Internationalist 360° on June 27, 2025
Dmitri Kovalevich

Ukraine and “Israel” are being openly recognized for what they are, instruments of Western imperialism.

The world’s attention has been focused during June 2025 on “Israel’s” aggression against Iran, overshadowing the Western proxy war in Ukraine, now into its fourth year.

Representatives of the warmaking regime in Kiev responded to “Israel’s” attacks against Iran by siding with the aggressor. But they are pleading at the same time for their Western sponsors not to forget and leave behind their own regime’s need for continued supplies of funding and armaments. Kiev is now waiting with bated breath that the ceasefire announced between the two sides on June 24 will hold.

“Israel” and Ukraine are vital proxies for Western imperialism, each serving in their own ways as wedges aimed against the countries of Eurasia and the Global South. This is despite the historical animosity between Ukraine’s Jewish population and the ultra-nationalist ideology, which now prevails there, interspersed as it is with outright, neo-Nazi ideology. The ideological mix is tolerated and accepted by “Israel” and by the Western countries because far-right and neo-Nazi movements are on the rise in the West, deeply influencing central government policies and the conduct of their police and military agencies.

Apartheid “Israel” and far-right Ukraine, together with their dirty wars, are becoming ‘competitors’ for attention, financing, and armaments from the West. That is due to the limited capacities of the Western powers to help these two proxies with money and arms while simultaneously desperately trying to wage wars on two fronts at once. This dilemma for the West is further complicated by the fact that both proxies are seeking to draw the US and the other NATO powers into direct conflict on their side.

Both proxies are using similar methods. On June 1, the Ukrainian security services announced that they had conducted ‘Operation Spider Web’ on Russian territory, consisting of blowing up railway bridges used by trains carrying civilian passengers resulting in numerous casualties and launching drones smuggled into Russia and then aimed at airfields that are an integral part of Russia’s military defense against nuclear weapons.

The nuclear weapons agreement signed by the US and Russia in 2010 (formally named ‘Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms’) included the provision that strategic nuclear bomber fleets of each country be stationed in open-air airfields to minimize the danger of sneak attacks. That agreement was supposed to lead to a more comprehensive ‘START 2’ nuclear weapons treaty, but that failed when the US refused in June 2002 to renew an existing ABM Treaty. A ‘START 3’ treaty also failed, with the US and the Russian Federation eventually agreeing to the more limited Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT), or ‘Moscow Treaty’, in 2003.

According to the online Ukraine news outlet Strana on June 17, the Israeli Mossad secret police launched drone strikes from Iranian territory, copying Ukraine’s recent ‘Operation Spider Web’ targeting Russian military airfields. Continuing the same thread on Telegram, Strana wrote further that if “Israel” and the US manage to break Iran’s military defenses and force it to accept their terms, this will surely be used to persuade the Trump regime in Washington to enter into direct warfare with the Russian Federation.

Former Ukrainian legislator Oleksandr Dubinsky believes that “Israel” is much more important to the US than is Ukraine, as evidenced already by the fact that the US has deployed advanced air defense systems and is refueling Israeli warplanes to assist the Israeli Air Force. “This experience shows how the U.S. treats countries such as Ukraine, whose ‘partnership’ it considers to be important but not critically so, Ukraine is a “torpedo” in foreign hands, nothing more. It will be abandoned immediately after it fulfills its goals or should its military forces be defeated, whichever comes first.”

Dubinsky is a former associate of the Ukrainian regime leader Volodomyr Zelensky and is currently serving prison time in prison for ‘treason’. His status as an elected member of the Ukrainian legislature has been stripped away.

Dubinsky explains that the Office of the President of Ukraine is “jealous” over how the attention of the world’s media is shifting away from Zelensky’s figure. Kiev is well aware that the loss of interest in Ukraine’s problems and its dropping lower on the agenda of the Western media is fraught with the danger of losing Western funding and arms supplies. This was underlined at the meeting of leaders of the G7 countries held in Canada from June 15 to 17. Zelensky rushed to attend as an invited guest, but the event failed to produce a statement on the conflict in Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian Telegram channel Legitimny, Zelensky looked lost at the summit meeting’s closing media event on June 17. Commenting on a video of the event, Legitimny wrote, “Pay attention to how the Prime Minister of Italy looks at Zelensky. She understands that his role is ending and the G7 media event that day is a little chat, nothing more.”

Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch writes that from a global perspective, the world is refocusing its attention on the Middle East because that’s where some of the world’s major oil production and related financial centers are located. The stakes are in the trillions of dollars, writes Kusch, so in order to understand where events are headed, do as Western capitalists often advise: ‘Follow the money’.

“Israel’s” actions in the current war resemble those of Ukraine in many respects. This is manifested in their racist attitudes toward the inhabitants of Palestine and Donbass, respectively, and also in “Israel’s” ‘copy-cat’ banning of its citizens from leaving the country.

Thus, ‘fully-fledged’ citizens are even becoming hostages of each regime. Zelensky has made Ukrainian men into de facto slaves, barring them from leaving the country ever since February 2022, in order that they serve as ‘cannon fodder’ for the regime, not be lost to conscription evasion. There is a vast, daily manhunt by military recruiters taking place all over Ukraine for diminishing numbers of bodies available for its armed forces. Gaps in Ukraine’s defensive lines are growing larger as replacement reserves are disappearing or do not have the required health or military training to be effective and survive. It is likely that a similar scenario would await the Israeli army if its struggle with Palestine and Iran were to resume and move to a stage of ground hostilities.

At the G7 summit in Canada, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz acknowledged that “Israel” is doing the “dirty work” for the entire West by attacking Iran. “I am grateful to you for the term ‘dirty work’,” Merz told an inquiring German journalist at a media event. “This is dirty work that Israel is doing for all of us.”

Merz continued, “I can only say that I have the greatest respect for the fact that the Israeli army had the courage to do this [an unprovoked attack against Iran] and that the Israeli state leadership had the courage to do this.” His words shocked many in Germany, already used to the harsh and repressive support of genocidal “Israel” being waged by the government in Berlin.

In March 2025, German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl expressed his desire for the war in Ukraine to continue until 2030, which he says would result in European governments feeling safer (from whom, exactly?). This is how the government in Berlin is openly acknowledging the proxy character of the wars in Ukraine and, since October 2023, in the Middle East. Ukraine and “Israel” are being openly recognized for what they are, instruments of Western imperialism.

Oleg Yasinsky, a left-wing Ukrainian journalist living in Chile, wrote on June 14 that the Western powers and their satellites are bowing before all of this. “Allies and satellites of the West could make canned food out of dead babies and as long as they remain obedient, no one would reproach them or talk of sanctions to stop what they are doing.”

“There is no war between Israel and Iran,” he writes. “What is taking place is the destruction of Iranian sovereignty at the hands of Israel, planned by the West. Here is yet another lesson for the peoples and governments of Russia, Belarus, Cuba, Venezuela, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Burkina Faso and anyone else, even China. The claims that Iran would provide nuclear weapons technology to other countries resemble the infamous claims of ‘chemical weapons’ said to be in the hands of the Iraq government under Saddam Hussein and therefore warranting an all-out invasion.”

Yasinsky continues, “For the Western powers, claims of ‘violations of human rights’ by this or that independent country begin at the moment when such a country begins to conduct an independent foreign policy. Disobedience to the economic tyranny of Western corporations is the main challenge facing the ‘civilized world’ today, and this gets disobedience gets fully punished by media lies followed by economic sanctions and eventually missiles… The indignation being voiced by the Israeli government for the ‘brutal shelling of civilians in Tel Aviv’ by the Iranian military is an insult to the conscience and common sense of humanity, considering the tens of thousands of children who continue to be methodically killed in Gaza.”

Yasinsky draws parallels between the attack against Iran and the 2015 ‘Minsk 2’ agreement for peace in Ukraine. The coup regime in power in Kiev in 2015 had not the slightest intention to honor that agreement, just as US talks with Iran over its nuclear energy program were solely intended to distract the Iranian government and put it to sleep. Washington’s decision to seek the destruction of Iran was made long ago.

Some Western observers are warning that the conflict in the Middle East could lead to strikes against nuclear energy facilities, producing radioactive contamination of air, water, and land. Zelensky is using such fears to draw attention to himself and claim that Russia intends to strike nuclear energy facilities in Ukraine.

Zelensky’s words reflect his anger and envy that the attention of Western media has switched to the Middle East. “Russia is also planning further attacks against our energy-producing industries; this may become less visible to the world because of the focus on the situation in the Middle East,” Zelensky claimed on Telegram on June 15. But this refrain is getting tired; it has been trotted out for more than three years now, ever since the beginning of Russia’s military intervention in February 2022.

The regime in Kiev is also unhappy with the fact that Israel’s conflict with Iran may sharply inflate world oil prices and thereby increase the revenues of Russia’s fossil fuel industries and central government. Ukraine is quite threatened by rising oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel prices for the operations of its armed forces.

Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik argues that an increase in the world price of oil will cause two crises at once for Ukraine. “First, energy prices in Europe and the U.S will rise, which will have a negative impact on domestic public opinion there. And second, the governments of some countries, notably Russia, will earn significant increases in income. This will give Russia more opportunity to continue and intensify the war.”

Andriy Kobolyev, the former head of Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state-run oil and natural gas company, predicts a rise in natural gas prices in Europe due to the Israeli strikes against Iran’s gas industry. As he explains, Iran has been supplying gas to Turkey, which has then been reselling it to European Union countries. That supply arrangement to Europe through Turkey will now be reduced. Ukraine, itself having severed its gas supply from Russia and having emptied its underground gas storage facilities this past winter, is now obliged to buy gas from the EU at a time of rising prices.

In a recent interview, Zelensky also worried about the decline in Western arms supplies, much of which are now being redirected to the Middle East. “It will become more difficult for Ukraine to buy weapons from the United States, as Washington is expected to increase military aid to Israel,” says Sergei Danilov, deputy director of the Kiev-based Center for Middle East Studies.

The Zerkalo Nedeli weekly in Ukraine is panicking that the US has already redirected to the Middle East extremely important elements of anti-drone systems that were intended for Ukraine. The publication believes that “for pragmatic reasons” Ukraine is quietly interested in ending the Iran-“Israel” conflict as soon as possible; it does not want it to expand.

At the NATO summit in The Hague on June 25, Trump responded to a question from ВВС Ukraine about the sale of US Patriot missiles to Kiev by saying that the US did not have many more of them to offer because they had already been provided to “Israel”.

Ukrainian experts are also concerned that all of Zelensky’s attempts (at the request of London and Brussels) to reverse the positions taken by Global South countries on the conflict in Ukraine, opposing Kiev regime actions, will now go down the drain. According to Ukrainian analysts, the West will unite around “Israel” while the Global South will unite around Iran, Russia, and China. In this situation, it will be more difficult for Kiev and the West to proclaim and find believers in “Russian aggression” because “Israel” so obviously struck Iran first. The whole world can now see clearly that “Israel”, not Iran, is the aggressor in the Middle East.

The Ukrainian Telegram channel of political analysis, Rubicon, writes that for Ukraine, the war against Iran has turned out to be extremely unfortunate, even though Kiev’s sympathies and support lie on the side of the Zionist entity.

Although Trump is boasting that he has successfully brought “peace” to “Israel” and Iran, he warned at the NATO summit in The Hague that war between them could well resume. It could soon resume just in case.

Most of the legislators from Zelensky’s ‘Servant of the People’ party machine have expressed support for “Israel” and are seeking to dehumanize Iran and its people as much as possible. A legislator from Zelensky’s party, Maxim Buzhansky, wrote on Telegram on June 16, “Iran stands outside morality and has done so firmly and for a long time. I sincerely hope it will pay dearly, and soon.”

For Ukrainian politicians and their racist world view, “Israel” is symbolically ‘a part of Europe,’ while Iran is part of ‘barbaric Asia’. Russia is portrayed similarly by the ideologues of far-right Ukraine. Ukrainian legislators claim that Iran is led by ‘religious fanatics,’ conveniently forgetting that the “Israel” they defend as a “theocratic state” has now become an openly “genocidal state”.

For all of their emotional support to “Israel”, the leaders of far-right, pro-Western Ukraine harbor uncomfortable thoughts that they and apartheid “Israel” [1] are actually competing for limited or even dwindling supplies of attention, money, and armaments from the West.

Explanatory editorial note:

[1] The term ‘apartheid’ as used in the Russian language [апартеИд] refers largely to the past apartheid regime of South Africa. The term is not commonly used to describe today’s “Israel”; the most common term for that in Russian refers to “Israel” as a society of ‘segregation’.

‘Genocide’ [геноцИд] in the Russian language refers to the mass extermination of populations on the basis of their ethnic/religious character. Russian society widely accepts that a genocide was conducted by Turkey against the Armenian populations it dominated in 1915/1916; and, of course, that a genocide was conducted by Nazi Germany against Jewish and Roma peoples throughout the territories it occupied and influenced during the world war begun in 1939. These occupied territories included Soviet Crimea and Soviet Ukraine from 1941 to 1944. The term is controversial in today’s Russia because of its widespread and false usage by Western ideologues to describe the mass deportations of ethnic Koreans, Turks, Crimean Tatars, Volga Germans and others by the Stalin regime of the Soviet Union following the catastrophic invasion by Nazi Germany in June 1941.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/06/ ... n-ukraine/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Jul 01, 2025 12:06 pm

Summer offensives
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 01/07/2025

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Winter gave way to spring, a difficult season for conducting major ground operations due to the rains—at least, that's the story we hear annually from the media—and finally, summer arrived. As every year, the summer season is accompanied by the usual reports in which different media outlets announce the Russian summer offensive, present the directions from which they assume it will arrive, and predict what the outcome might be. Sometimes, these articles are simply misinformed alarmism in which journalists and think-tankers warn of an exaggerated danger that bears little to do with reality, in texts that can be read as a prayer for more weapons. This is the case of an article published this week by the Financial Times , a generally well-informed outlet, but whose analyses and opinion pieces clearly show the objectives of its analysts rather than the reality on the front line.

The article by Gideon Rachman—one of the media's leading experts—published yesterday is a good example of this. The increased intensity of Russian missile attacks against kyiv, which have not actually increased but have become more efficient thanks to improved tactics and the degradation of Ukraine's defenses, is not only causing serious damage, but "is also damaging the morale of Ukrainians. Without a clear vision of victory, or at least the end of the war, the country risks sinking into despair," the journalist argues, adding that "the change in mood within the Ukrainian government is reflected in the urgency with which it is now privately calling for a ceasefire. A year or two ago, such calls would have been considered defeatist. Now they are being made with increasing insistence in closed-door meetings between Ukrainian and Western leaders."

Although none of the articles referring to the situation on the front lines mention it, the desire for a ceasefire is not limited to the political class but extends to the population. According to the latest barometer published by SOCIS, 72.6% of the population would be willing to accept a compromise (55.7%) or freeze the conflict based on the current front line (16.6%) to achieve peace, compared to 12.8% who advocate continuing to fight until the 1991 borders or the February 23, 2022 borders are recovered (8.6%). While the 72.6% who opt for options to end the hot phase of the conflict, 21.4% opt for continuing to fight. However, the opinion of the population is only relevant in cases where polling data favors continuing policies dictated by the State or its allies.

This is also evident in Rachman's article, which uses figures from the most hawkish camp to argue that increased military supplies to kyiv are necessary. "A group of former European leaders, including Sweden's Carl Bildt and Finland's Sanna Marin, recently visited Ukraine and noted the deteriorating situation. They later wrote that 'although the Ukrainians will never stop resisting, without more military support, Ukraine may lose more territory. More cities could be captured,'" he warns, using two hawks to defend his argument by creating fear of impossible situations. "A well-placed officer believes that Russia's central objective now is to capture Odessa, which Vladimir Putin considers a historically Russian city. Without Odessa, Ukraine would lose access to its main port," he writes, lacking any evidence that Russia has the intention or the capability to advance, by land or sea, toward the Black Sea port city. Since the withdrawal from Kherson in the fall of 2022, Russian troops have not attempted to cross the Dnieper River. The sea route has been further complicated by the development of drones, so the use of the Russian navy has been reduced to missile launches, with no possibility of conducting close-quarters maneuvers or, of course, the attempted amphibious landing that would be required, which did not even occur in February 2022, before Ukraine mined the approaches and organized its defense. But although there is no danger that Russia will capture Odessa, the fear of that possibility is enough to defend the need to increase aid, and to do so without needing to delve into the situation of Ukrainian troops at the front, questioning the optimistic official reports, or asking about the real level of casualties or the difficulty of replenishing the battered ranks. A mention of Odessa was enough a year ago for President Emmanuel Macron, glass in hand according to those who witnessed the scene, to open the possibility of sending "the boys," French soldiers, to hold the front.

The Financial Times ' warning contrasts with yesterday's optimistic report by Volodymyr Zelensky, who, after meeting with the General Staff, acknowledged a complex situation in the Donetsk region but downplayed the dangers posed by the US media these days. “The front, primarily in the direction of Pokrovsk. There is a large concentration of Russian troops in that area, with numerous assaults. I thank all our units, every soldier, for their resilience. The Sumi region: today we had a separate conversation about this direction. A week ago, we assigned our troops specific tasks and designated lines. As of today, those objectives have been fully met. This is important. The Russian offensive plan for the Sumi region is failing, thanks to all the Ukrainian units operating in that direction. We are also continuing active efforts within the framework of the Kursk operation. For almost 10 months, the operation has achieved its objective,” the Ukrainian president wrote, presenting a picture of events that does not even correspond to the view portrayed by the openly pro-Ukrainian international media. Although the mention of Kursk is particularly striking, where Ukraine has achieved no objective other than destroying a part of the Russian oblast and finally had to withdraw with heavy casualties and enormous complaints from its soldiers, the triumphalism regarding Sumi is no less so, where media such as The Wall Street Journal expects the Russian offensive to take place.

“Russian forces are just 12 miles from this northern Ukrainian regional capital, a new target for Moscow as the Kremlin presses its manpower advantage in a growing number of locations along the front. After almost completely expelling Ukrainian forces from Russia’s Kursk region earlier this year, Russian forces have crossed the border in the opposite direction, toward Sumi. With 50,000 troops in the area, they outnumber the Ukrainians by a ratio of 3 to 1, according to soldiers fighting there,” the outlet warns. The strategy, according to Oleksandr Syrsky, “is to wear us down with numbers.” The comment by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine points to the true objective of this slow-moving local offensive launched by the Russian Federation after the victory at Kursk. The objective is none other than to pin down Ukrainian troops in the north, prevent adventures like the one in August last year on Russian territory, and exhaust the resource that Ukraine has the hardest time replenishing: personnel. Even so, and despite Vladimir Putin's assertion that troops are not tasked with capturing the regional capital, Russian artillery shells are already reaching the outskirts of the city, indicating that the Russian offensive has failed . Zelensky is referring to is, at the very least, doubtful.

While the Financial Times warns of danger for an area far from the front, and The Wall Street Journal sees the continuation of the war of attrition as a new offensive, both to highlight the worrying situation in the Ukrainian army, The Washington Post stands out with an article that also refers to a Russian summer offensive, but this time to highlight the problems of its troops. “Russia has unleashed its summer offensive in eastern Ukraine and is advancing slowly with its advantage in manpower, artillery shells, and missiles. The coming months will be crucial for President Vladimir Putin's attempt to force Kiev to capitulate,” the report states, before abruptly shifting to focus on the fact that “Russia's progress against Ukraine over the past two years has been glacial, especially compared with Israel's recent lightning attacks against a much larger Iran. The reason, experts say, is the state of the Russian armed forces, a long-standing problem.” Considering the fact that Israel has enjoyed assistance from the United States and the United Kingdom, is one of the most heavily subsidized countries, and possesses nuclear weapons, compared to an Iran that has fought alone, is one of the most sanctioned countries in the world, and does not possess nuclear weapons, the comparison between the size of the countries seems inaccurate. Nor is the comparison between Israel's successes in Iran versus Russia's failures, since at no point have Tel Aviv or Washington considered the possibility of a ground operation against Iran.

In any case, The Washington Post prefers to focus on the problems of the Russian troops, for which it relies on the expert voice of Ian Matveev, a member of Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation, who is presented as an independent journalist. “Matveev predicts that Russia's summer offensive will not represent a dramatic advance, but could gain several thousand square kilometers of territory. According to him, the army is incapable of carrying out complex operations in Ukraine due to intelligence deficiencies, shortages, corruption, logistical failures, and poor training,” the outlet writes, later voicing its source, who adds that “these tactics [of mass assault] are the only thing the Russian army is capable of right now. And it's very inhumane because, in effect, they exchange dead for territory. What we have now in the Russian army is a bunch of soldiers, but they have no training.” Aside from the fact that thousands of square kilometers of captured territory would represent a drastic advance in the high-intensity war conditions being waged in Ukraine, Matveev's analysis is based on the same paradigms that have been so often refuted, even by staunch enemies of the Russian Federation such as Andriy Biletsky. However, the idea that Russia is incapable of equipping its soldiers, who lack training and are sent to the front to fight in the hordes of human waves, remains a dogma repeated in the Western media.

“The Ukrainian forces, for their part, have fought more rationally, and their objective has been more global: the liberation of all occupied territories. This allows them to act in a less linear and predictable way. Now, breaking through the front from Zaporizhzhia southward through Tokmak and Melitopol to the Crimean border seems the most attractive option. The objective: to subvert half of the Russian front in one fell swoop and create a threat both to the east and to the defense of Crimea,” Matveev wrote in 2023. And confusing his desires with analysis, he added that the Russian authorities “do not understand that Ukraine has already won. The advantage provided by the quality of Western weapons has been doubled by the spirit of the Ukrainian soldiers, who are fighting for their homeland. Putin’s soldiers, on the other hand, are usually mercenaries or people recruited under duress and thrown into the front lines. There are ideological fanatics, but they are few. Putin may try to recruit Russian industry to build more tanks, spare parts… artillery and protective vests, but this plan will fail due to the corruption embedded in a rotten system." The failure of the Ukrainian ground counteroffensive that year, Russia's ability to increase its presence in Ukraine without having to declare mobilization, and the increase in military production, which has far exceeded that of Europe, as NATO countries so often repeat, refute Matveev's version, who continues to cling to the same arguments.

“Despite the terrible conditions of the soldiers, it seems that Russian recruitment continues to increase as a result of high salaries and enormous enlistment bonuses of more than 3 million rubles, more than $38,000. 'I would compare it to winning the lottery,' says Matveev. 'The propaganda keeps telling them things are going well at the front, and of course, they think, 'I'll be fine,'” conclude The Washington Post and Matveev in the closing of the report, in which they never put into perspective the exaggerated difficulties they attribute to the Russian army.

The daily images of forced recruitment, the constant complaints of soldiers and officers fighting on the front lines in Donbas, and the lack of trust in the authorities portrayed in The Wall Street Journal report contrast with this catastrophic view of what is happening in the Russian army. The complaints of those who fought senselessly for months at Kursk have been forgotten, but the statements of those now trying to sustain the defense of Sumi point to the same culprits: the military authorities, incapable of preventing the foreseeable and carrying out the work expected of them. “During the six months that Ukraine occupied territory in the Russian Kursk region, soldiers who fought there said they assumed the army would prepare strong defensive positions on the Ukrainian side of the border. Instead, after a chaotic and costly retreat from Kursk, they found themselves facing antiquated trenches, without drone air cover. The soldiers are now digging their own positions, in some cases under drone fire,” the US outlet insists.

Despite countless articles on the subject, there is, for the moment, no indication of a change in tactics by Russian troops in Ukraine, whose mission remains to advance gradually in a war of attrition in which the ubiquitous use of drones hampers any progress. Increasingly dangerous for soldiers on both the front and rear, the conflict continues its usual dynamic of long-distance attacks in the rear, a front transformed into the trench warfare of the First World War, to which has been added artillery power and thousands of drones constantly flying over the positions of both sides, impeding both attack and defense.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/01/ofensivas-de-verano/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
0:15
It is reported that as a result of a drone attack on a local electromechanical plant in Izhevsk, there were 3 dead and up to 20 wounded.

The enemy's attempts to attack at long distances remind us that it is necessary to strengthen air defense not only in the frontline regions, but also in the rear. This applies to both target air defense and mobile drone-hunting teams, which show themselves well where it is done wisely. If the threat is ignored or underestimated, there will be unnecessary human and material losses.

It is worth recalling that drones are assembled in Izhevsk.
I would not rule out that in the near future the enemy will try to attack the territory of the Alabuga Free Economic Zone, where the main assembly of Geraniums is taking place, using drones. The flow of drones attacking Ukraine is increasing, so attempts to slow down their production will certainly be made. Both through drone attacks and sabotage.

***

Colonelcassad
📍Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation as of June 30, 2025.

Units of the North group of forces improved the position along the forward edge. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, a Jaeger, three airborne assault brigades, and three assault regiments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In the Kharkov direction, units of two mechanized and an airborne assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 220 servicemen, two tanks, four combat armoured vehicles, four vehicles and three field artillery pieces. Two ammunition and supply depots were destroyed.

Units of the West group of forces took up more advantageous lines and positions. Formations of two mechanized, an airmobile and an assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 230 servicemen, ten vehicles, an artillery piece, five electronic warfare stations and three ammunition depots.

Units of the Southern group of forces improved their tactical position. They defeated the manpower and equipment of five mechanized, assault, mountain assault and airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The enemy lost more than 210 servicemen, two tanks, an M113 armored personnel carrier made in the USA, a vehicle, three field artillery guns and two ammunition depots.

Units of the Center group of forces improved their position along the forward edge. They defeated formations of four mechanized, assault and airborne brigades, two assault regiments and an unmanned systems regiment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The losses of the Ukrainian armed formations amounted to 430 servicemen, six armored combat vehicles, three pickups and an artillery piece.

Units of the East group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses. They defeated the manpower and equipment of four mechanized and mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 190 servicemen, four vehicles, three field artillery guns and an electronic warfare station.

Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated formations of two mechanized, mountain assault brigades, two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Up to 70 Ukrainian servicemen, five vehicles, three field artillery guns, five electronic warfare stations and two ammunition depots were destroyed.

***

Battles for Kamenskoye (data from @rusich_army )

For a long time, there were no reports from the Zaporizhzhya direction, but this does not mean that the fighting there stopped. In fact, after the liberation of Lobkovoe, our troops continued to storm towards Kamenskoye.

During the last month of fighting, our units managed to break through several large strongholds near the forest plantations adjacent to Kamenskoye. After that, the assault groups consolidated their positions on the southeastern outskirts of the village.

Part of Kamenskoye is currently under the control of our troops, but to the south, in a pocket, there is a powerful fortified area in which the enemy has firmly entrenched itself and has not yet been able to dislodge it, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces are intensively striking with drones and sending reinforcements.

There is also a small advance south of Kamenskoye along the railway. The positions there are not the most favorable due to the presence of a reservoir, which is why the assault is very difficult, but there is progress.

In other areas, in particular Stepovoye - Shcherbaki, positional battles are essentially observed. Stepovoye is actually in the gray zone, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces have transferred large reinforcements to the area, including from the special detachment of the Main Intelligence Directorate "Artan".

One of the groups of the Main Intelligence Directorate tried to break through to our positions, but was eliminated by our fighters. The moment of their elimination was recorded on a copter camera. As you can see, they are equipped with the most modern weapons and uniforms.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

SITREP 6/29/25: Russia Launches Largest Drone Swarm of Entire War as Ukraine Gets Forgotten
Simplicius
Jun 29, 2025

We turn back to the Ukrainian war for updates.

This week saw the NATO summit which again amounted to nothing more than lip-service for various failed initiatives.

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The only thing to come out of the summit was entertainment in the form of ‘Daddy-Gate’. In reality, the ostensible ‘achievement’ hailed by Rutte for bringing member countries onboard the 5% defense spending racket likewise appeared an illusion:

Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles:

“It is absolutely impossible for any NATO country to reach the 5% of GDP target for military spending. Spain has become the most honest.”


Apart from that, Ukraine has mostly been forgotten under the shadow of the Israeli conflict.

But the war has not abated, and the Russian summer offensives roll on. Ukrainian channels have reported a large surge of military equipment coming to the Zaporozhye direction:

The Russian army will be making a powerful offensive in the Zaporizhia direction in the coming days: a large movement of equipment and ammunition is recorded, - the enemy publishes footage

▪️Enemy agents are recording the transfer of Russian troops and publishing pictures on the channels of propagandists, claiming that a major offensive of the Russian Armed Forces is being prepared.

▪️"In the direction of Rostov-Novoazovsk-Mariupol-Pology / Berdyansk direction: about 7 platforms with armored vehicles, including tanks, went there. More than 40 trucks with manpower and ammunition," writes the adviser to the fake Ukrainian "mayor of Mariupol".

▪️"In the direction of Crimea / Kherson - Mariupol - Novoazovsk - Taganrog / Rostov - Sumy: a column of more than 20 trucks with manpower, about 5 tractors with armored vehicles of the BMP / BMD class also went," Andryushchenko adds.

RVvoenkor


And like clockwork, days after those initial reports, there are now Russian breakthroughs ongoing as of today. The most notable happened in Kamyansk, right on the Dnieper, where Russian Airborne forces of the 247th Regiment stormed the center of the town and put up the flag:

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦247th Airborne Regiment broke through to the center of Kamenskoye, tore down the Ukrainian flag and raised the Russian flag!

▪️Stavropol paratroopers broke through to the very center of an important settlement on the left flank of the Zaporizhzhya direction.

▪️Demonstrating confident control over the area, they tore down the Ukrainian flag on the Yanchekrak River sign and raised the Russian flag.

(Video at link.)

Geolocation:

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Just east of there Russian forces have also begun moving into Mala Tokmachka, from whence the 2023 Ukrainian summer ‘counter-offensive’ once was launched.

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By far the largest advances since our last update happened a bit further east from there, north of the previous Velyka Novosilka line.

Last time we left off with Russian forces having just liberated Komar and Perebudova. Now they have captured several settlements north of that, from Zaporozhye, Yalta, to Zirka along the Mokry Yaly river.

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On the Seversk front, Russian forces pushed past Gregorovka, which they captured last time, as well as pushing on the center salient toward Seversk city itself:

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In Sumy, General Syrsky had announced the total halting of the Russian offensive after new Ukrainian reinforcements were brought in and launched counterattacks there. It’s true, as of now the Russians have not advanced much farther in Sumy. It’s a common push-and-pull tactic, where Russians will dig in to grind down the counterattacking Ukrainian reserves for a while, before resuming the advances once they feel the AFU is sufficiently depleted.

Russian advances update as of 6/27:

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Ukrainian officers have issued dire new calls of alarm about the front. Aidar platoon commander Stanislav Bunyatov writes that in almost all combat directions, assault operations are exclusively carried out by ‘busified’ people—that is, Ukrainians who have been press-ganged by the mobilizers, rather than motivated volunteers:

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Meanwhile, a commander of the Azov brigade corroborates the above with an even more damning description of the AFU’s current circumstances on the front:

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He mentions destroyed battalions, low staffing, and that only 10 men hold stretches of ground 5km in length.

Last night, Russia also launched one of the largest strikes of the war, when you count total assets used. The missile count was relatively low, but the drones numbered nearly 500 Shaheds and other decoys in total, which is likely a record for single day usage:

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Counting missiles, it was well over 500+ units launched in one night. The attacks wreaked havoc on various sites, from Ukrainian airports, to energy infrastructure in Poltava, the Drohobich refinery in Lvov, and Kremenchug oil refinery as well.

One report from Legitimny:

The Russians began to clear all industrial facilities associated with the army.
1. Fuel/oil
2. Metallurgy
3. Cement factories
4. Railway infrastructure and mobile transport
5. Any industrial facilities that can be used as large rembases.
6. Airfields and facilities related to the production of drones.
7. Ports
8. Energy infrastructure (so far only next to LBS).
9. Other business/industrial facilities, as a blow to certain monetary assets characters in Ukraine.


For the first time in the war, the Russians began to destroy cement factories, which means the Russians are not particularly counting on peace negotiations.

Another F-16 was even downed trying to intercept the drones.

From the official Ukrainian Air Force account:

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This now makes multiple F-16s shot down by Geran drones. The problem appears to be they are incapable of locking onto the drone as it has a very small IR signature, so they are being forced to engage the drone at extremely close ranges, which peppers the F-16 with shrapnel after the drone explodes.

But most eye-opening was the new statement from top Ukrainian radio-electronics expert Serhiy ‘Flash’ Beskrestnov. He is rarely alarmist, so the urgent tone raised quite a few eyebrows in Ukraine:


What he’s referring to are the predictions that Russian production capabilities for Shahed drones would soon reach levels allowing Russia to launch upwards of 500-700 of these drones per night, as they did last night.

One of Ukraine’s other top military analysts, Myroshnykov, disagrees that Russia will reach such numbers any time soon:

Let's go through the material again.

If the enemy's current production rate of Shaheeds is ~170 units per day, how will he launch "500/800/1000 shaheeds daily"?

They have about 3.5 thousand units in stock. But I think they will not completely "go to zero".

Therefore, as I have repeatedly said before, there will be "weak Shaheed" days (80-100 launched mopeds) and "strong Shaheed" days (250+ launched mopeds).

Relatively speaking, 1-2 days a week there will be a lot (or a lot) of Shaheeds, and another 5-6 days - less.

The numbers may vary, but in general it can be something like this.

Days without mopeds will either be extremely rare (several times a year) or there will be none at all.

Currently, the enemy is building several new workshops in "Alabuz". This will increase the production rate to ~300 units per day in total.

Even if we add the potential production of Shahed in the DPRK, it will not be that fast.

But from the "pluses" for the enemy - engines will go to the DPRK from China directly. Currently, this is limited to Iranian copies, the production of which has recently suffered greatly.

So these are the things. I definitely do not see any reasons for loud headlines.

His information is that Russia produces 170 per day, and can scale up to 300 in the future. Recent reports claim North Korea may be sending up to 25,000 workers to Russia’s giant Alabuga drone factory where the Geran drones are made:

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https://www.twz.com/news-features/north ... nes-report

As Myroshnykov indicated, Russia has upwards of 3,000 of these drones in stock, and will sometimes launch larger 500+ per day strikes, while other times smaller ones. Even ~300 daily drones hitting Ukraine will create an insoluble nightmare for the AFU.



As evidence of Russia’s growing drone dominance, an absolutely awe-inspiring video was released by the Russian Sudoplatov drone battalion which shows a huge FPV drone swarm chasing down a Swedish Pbv 302 APC full of Ukrainian troops: (Video at link.)

This video represents one of those inflection points where we get to tangibly see the world changing before our eyes. In this case, it truly forebodes that combat will never be the same again.

On the topic, here are recent statistics from a Ukrainian unit in the Pokrovsk direction about their “300” injuries broken down by munition type:

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FPVs represent 49%, artillery only 13.6%, with Russian Kab/Fab bombs only 3.7%, according to them. More specifically, they distinguish that 35% of FPV hits are on troops in positions, such as trenches and foxholes, while 65% are hits on roads, i.e. vehicles or troops in transit. For the record, the full list in the left column is: FPV, artillery, infantry, drone-dropped mines, mortars, Kab/Fab, and Lancets.

Russian channels write:

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Thus, according to these figures, by far the largest losses Ukrainian troops are experiencing are in the operational zone 3-20km behind the contact line; in essence, this is the logistics zone, highlighting that logistics is the most vulnerable segment of the armed forces because it has to constantly stay mobile, running back and forth from the contact line—whether it be rotations, resupplies, etc.

For Russian troops, losses from FPVs would be proportionally even much higher due to Ukraine’s comparative lack of artillery and aerial assets.



While Ukraine continues to bleed men, Zelensky has given us an update on Russian manpower, now claiming there are roughly 700k Russian troops in Ukraine, with an additional 50k just over the Sumy and Kharkov borders:

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Note the above: just months ago Russia was said to have 575k men in Ukraine. According to Ukraine, Russia’s Schrodinger Army continues to both massively lose and gain men at the same time.



Zelensky also made another quite interesting statement: that the reason he refuses to evacuate Sumy is because the civilians there prevent Russia from fully striking the city with missiles: (Video at link.)

So, he’s basically admitting that keeping civilians trapped in a besieged city as human shields has military benefits.

Meanwhile, a Ukrainian commander appeared to admit on camera that it was the AFU that blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam: (Video at link.)



An interesting look at the current state of armored warfare on the front: (Video at link.)



Serhiy Flash writes that Russian soldiers are now using watches that notify them of incoming FPV drones, as well as their operating frequencies:

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The adversary came up with the idea of ​​extracting data from the drone detector at a special time. It is definitely convenient for a soldier.



Lastly, I had forgotten to post this two weeks ago when I first saw it, but it is quite telling. Congressman Thomas Massie writes of the classified congressional meetings he’s attended:

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So much for US ‘secret intelligence’. It gives quite a perspective on Western reporting of Russian-Ukrainian casualties.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... es-largest

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‘Israel’s’ Aggression Against Iran Through the Prism of the Conflict in Ukraine
June 29, 2025

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Far-right Ukraine competing with apartheid "Israel" over limited or even dwindling supplies of attention, money, and armaments from the West. Photo: Zeinab al-Hajj/Al Mayadeen English.

By Dmitri Kovalevich – Jun 28, 2025

Ukraine and “Israel” are being openly recognized for what they are, instruments of Western imperialism.

The world’s attention has been focused during June 2025 on “Israel’s” aggression against Iran, overshadowing the Western proxy war in Ukraine, now into its fourth year.

Representatives of the warmaking regime in Kiev responded to “Israel’s” attacks against Iran by siding with the aggressor. But they are pleading at the same time for their Western sponsors not to forget and leave behind their own regime’s need for continued supplies of funding and armaments. Kiev is now waiting with bated breath that the ceasefire announced between the two sides on June 24 will hold.

“Israel” and Ukraine are vital proxies for Western imperialism, each serving in their own ways as wedges aimed against the countries of Eurasia and the Global South. This is despite the historical animosity between Ukraine’s Jewish population and the ultra-nationalist ideology, which now prevails there, interspersed as it is with outright, neo-Nazi ideology. The ideological mix is tolerated and accepted by “Israel” and by the Western countries because far-right and neo-Nazi movements are on the rise in the West, deeply influencing central government policies and the conduct of their police and military agencies.

Apartheid “Israel” and far-right Ukraine, together with their dirty wars, are becoming ‘competitors’ for attention, financing, and armaments from the West. That is due to the limited capacities of the Western powers to help these two proxies with money and arms while simultaneously desperately trying to wage wars on two fronts at once. This dilemma for the West is further complicated by the fact that both proxies are seeking to draw the US and the other NATO powers into direct conflict on their side.

Both proxies are using similar methods. On June 1, the Ukrainian security services announced that they had conducted ‘Operation Spider Web’ on Russian territory, consisting of blowing up railway bridges used by trains carrying civilian passengers resulting in numerous casualties and launching drones smuggled into Russia and then aimed at airfields that are an integral part of Russia’s military defense against nuclear weapons.

The nuclear weapons agreement signed by the US and Russia in 2010 (formally named ‘Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms’) included the provision that strategic nuclear bomber fleets of each country be stationed in open-air airfields to minimize the danger of sneak attacks. That agreement was supposed to lead to a more comprehensive ‘START 2’ nuclear weapons treaty, but that failed when the US refused in June 2002 to renew an existing ABM Treaty. A ‘START 3’ treaty also failed, with the US and the Russian Federation eventually agreeing to the more limited Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT), or ‘Moscow Treaty’, in 2003.

According to the online Ukraine news outlet Strana on June 17, the Israeli Mossad secret police launched drone strikes from Iranian territory, copying Ukraine’s recent ‘Operation Spider Web’ targeting Russian military airfields. Continuing the same thread on Telegram, Strana wrote further that if “Israel” and the US manage to break Iran’s military defenses and force it to accept their terms, this will surely be used to persuade the Trump regime in Washington to enter into direct warfare with the Russian Federation.

Former Ukrainian legislator Oleksandr Dubinsky believes that “Israel” is much more important to the US than is Ukraine, as evidenced already by the fact that the US has deployed advanced air defense systems and is refueling Israeli warplanes to assist the Israeli Air Force. “This experience shows how the US treats countries such as Ukraine, whose ‘partnership’ it considers to be important but not critically so, Ukraine is a “torpedo” in foreign hands, nothing more. It will be abandoned immediately after it fulfills its goals or should its military forces be defeated, whichever comes first.”

Dubinsky is a former associate of the Ukrainian regime leader Volodomyr Zelensky and is currently serving prison time in prison for ‘treason’. His status as an elected member of the Ukrainian legislature has been stripped away.

Dubinsky explains that the Office of the President of Ukraine is “jealous” over how the attention of the world’s media is shifting away from Zelensky’s figure. Kiev is well aware that the loss of interest in Ukraine’s problems and its dropping lower on the agenda of the Western media is fraught with the danger of losing Western funding and arms supplies. This was underlined at the meeting of leaders of the G7 countries held in Canada from June 15 to 17. Zelensky rushed to attend as an invited guest, but the event failed to produce a statement on the conflict in Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian Telegram channel Legitimny, Zelensky looked lost at the summit meeting’s closing media event on June 17. Commenting on a video of the event, Legitimny wrote, “Pay attention to how the Prime Minister of Italy looks at Zelensky. She understands that his role is ending and the G7 media event that day is a little chat, nothing more.”

Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch writes that from a global perspective, the world is refocusing its attention on the Middle East because that’s where some of the world’s major oil production and related financial centers are located. The stakes are in the trillions of dollars, writes Kusch, so in order to understand where events are headed, do as Western capitalists often advise: ‘Follow the money.’

“Israel’s” actions in the current war resemble those of Ukraine in many respects. This is manifested in their racist attitudes toward the inhabitants of Palestine and Donbass, respectively, and also in “Israel’s” ‘copy-cat’ banning of its citizens from leaving the country.

Thus, ‘fully-fledged’ citizens are even becoming hostages of each regime. Zelensky has made Ukrainian men into de facto slaves, barring them from leaving the country ever since February 2022, in order that they serve as ‘cannon fodder’ for the regime, not be lost to conscription evasion. There is a vast, daily manhunt by military recruiters taking place all over Ukraine for diminishing numbers of bodies available for its armed forces. Gaps in Ukraine’s defensive lines are growing larger as replacement reserves are disappearing or do not have the required health or military training to be effective and survive. It is likely that a similar scenario would await the Israeli army if its struggle with Palestine and Iran were to resume and move to a stage of ground hostilities.

At the G7 summit in Canada, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz acknowledged that “Israel” is doing the “dirty work” for the entire West by attacking Iran. “I am grateful to you for the term ‘dirty work’,” Merz told an inquiring German journalist at a media event. “This is dirty work that Israel is doing for all of us.”

Merz continued, “I can only say that I have the greatest respect for the fact that the Israeli army had the courage to do this [an unprovoked attack against Iran] and that the Israeli state leadership had the courage to do this.” His words shocked many in Germany, already used to the harsh and repressive support of genocidal “Israel” being waged by the government in Berlin.

In March 2025, German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl expressed his desire for the war in Ukraine to continue until 2030, which he says would result in European governments feeling safer (from whom, exactly?). This is how the government in Berlin is openly acknowledging the proxy character of the wars in Ukraine and, since October 2023, in the Middle East. Ukraine and “Israel” are being openly recognized for what they are, instruments of Western imperialism.

Oleg Yasinsky, a left-wing Ukrainian journalist living in Chile, wrote on June 14 that the Western powers and their satellites are bowing before all of this. “Allies and satellites of the West could make canned food out of dead babies and as long as they remain obedient, no one would reproach them or talk of sanctions to stop what they are doing.”

“There is no war between Israel and Iran,” he writes. “What is taking place is the destruction of Iranian sovereignty at the hands of Israel, planned by the West. Here is yet another lesson for the peoples and governments of Russia, Belarus, Cuba, Venezuela, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Burkina Faso and anyone else, even China. The claims that Iran would provide nuclear weapons technology to other countries resemble the infamous claims of ‘chemical weapons’ said to be in the hands of the Iraq government under Saddam Hussein and therefore warranting an all-out invasion.”

Yasinsky continues, “For the Western powers, claims of ‘violations of human rights’ by this or that independent country begin at the moment when such a country begins to conduct an independent foreign policy. Disobedience to the economic tyranny of Western corporations is the main challenge facing the ‘civilized world’ today, and this gets disobedience gets fully punished by media lies followed by economic sanctions and eventually missiles… The indignation being voiced by the Israeli government for the ‘brutal shelling of civilians in Tel Aviv’ by the Iranian military is an insult to the conscience and common sense of humanity, considering the tens of thousands of children who continue to be methodically killed in Gaza.”

Yasinsky draws parallels between the attack against Iran and the 2015 ‘Minsk 2’ agreement for peace in Ukraine. The coup regime in power in Kiev in 2015 had not the slightest intention to honor that agreement, just as US talks with Iran over its nuclear energy program were solely intended to distract the Iranian government and put it to sleep. Washington’s decision to seek the destruction of Iran was made long ago.

Some Western observers are warning that the conflict in the Middle East could lead to strikes against nuclear energy facilities, producing radioactive contamination of air, water, and land. Zelensky is using such fears to draw attention to himself and claim that Russia intends to strike nuclear energy facilities in Ukraine.

Zelensky’s words reflect his anger and envy that the attention of Western media has switched to the Middle East. “Russia is also planning further attacks against our energy-producing industries; this may become less visible to the world because of the focus on the situation in the Middle East,” Zelensky claimed on Telegram on June 15. But this refrain is getting tired; it has been trotted out for more than three years now, ever since the beginning of Russia’s military intervention in February 2022.

The regime in Kiev is also unhappy with the fact that Israel’s conflict with Iran may sharply inflate world oil prices and thereby increase the revenues of Russia’s fossil fuel industries and central government. Ukraine is quite threatened by rising oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel prices for the operations of its armed forces.

Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik argues that an increase in the world price of oil will cause two crises at once for Ukraine. “First, energy prices in Europe and the U.S will rise, which will have a negative impact on domestic public opinion there. And second, the governments of some countries, notably Russia, will earn significant increases in income. This will give Russia more opportunity to continue and intensify the war.”

Andriy Kobolyev, the former head of Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state-run oil and natural gas company, predicts a rise in natural gas prices in Europe due to the Israeli strikes against Iran’s gas industry. As he explains, Iran has been supplying gas to Turkey, which has then been reselling it to European Union countries. That supply arrangement to Europe through Turkey will now be reduced. Ukraine, itself having severed its gas supply from Russia and having emptied its underground gas storage facilities this past winter, is now obliged to buy gas from the EU at a time of rising prices.

In a recent interview, Zelensky also worried about the decline in Western arms supplies, much of which are now being redirected to the Middle East. “It will become more difficult for Ukraine to buy weapons from the United States, as Washington is expected to increase military aid to Israel,” says Sergei Danilov, deputy director of the Kiev-based Center for Middle East Studies.

The Zerkalo Nedeli weekly in Ukraine is panicking that the US has already redirected to the Middle East extremely important elements of anti-drone systems that were intended for Ukraine. The publication believes that “for pragmatic reasons” Ukraine is quietly interested in ending the Iran-“Israel” conflict as soon as possible; it does not want it to expand.

At the NATO summit in The Hague on June 25, Trump responded to a question from ВВС Ukraine about the sale of US Patriot missiles to Kiev by saying that the US did not have many more of them to offer because they had already been provided to “Israel.”

Ukrainian experts are also concerned that all of Zelensky’s attempts (at the request of London and Brussels) to reverse the positions taken by Global South countries on the conflict in Ukraine, opposing Kiev regime actions, will now go down the drain. According to Ukrainian analysts, the West will unite around “Israel” while the Global South will unite around Iran, Russia, and China. In this situation, it will be more difficult for Kiev and the West to proclaim and find believers in “Russian aggression” because “Israel” so obviously struck Iran first. The whole world can now see clearly that “Israel,” not Iran, is the aggressor in the Middle East.

The Ukrainian Telegram channel of political analysis, Rubicon, writes that for Ukraine, the war against Iran has turned out to be extremely unfortunate, even though Kiev’s sympathies and support lie on the side of the Zionist entity.

Although Trump is boasting that he has successfully brought “peace” to “Israel” and Iran, he warned at the NATO summit in The Hague that war between them could well resume. It could soon resume just in case.

Most of the legislators from Zelensky’s ‘Servant of the People’ party machine have expressed support for “Israel” and are seeking to dehumanize Iran and its people as much as possible. A legislator from Zelensky’s party, Maxim Buzhansky, wrote on Telegram on June 16, “Iran stands outside morality and has done so firmly and for a long time. I sincerely hope it will pay dearly, and soon.”

For Ukrainian politicians and their racist world view, “Israel” is symbolically ‘a part of Europe,’ while Iran is part of ‘barbaric Asia’. Russia is portrayed similarly by the ideologues of far-right Ukraine. Ukrainian legislators claim that Iran is led by ‘religious fanatics,’ conveniently forgetting that the “Israel” they defend as a “theocratic state” has now become an openly “genocidal state.”

For all of their emotional support to “Israel,” the leaders of far-right, pro-Western Ukraine harbor uncomfortable thoughts that they and apartheid “Israel” [1] are actually competing for limited or even dwindling supplies of attention, money, and armaments from the West.

——————————————–

Explanatory editorial note:

[1] The term ‘apartheid’ as used in the Russian language [апартеИд] refers largely to the past apartheid regime of South Africa. The term is not commonly used to describe today’s “Israel”; the most common term for that in Russian refers to “Israel” as a society of ‘segregation’.

‘Genocide’ [геноцИд] in the Russian language refers to the mass extermination of populations on the basis of their ethnic/religious character. Russian society widely accepts that a genocide was conducted by Turkey against the Armenian populations it dominated in 1915/1916; and, of course, that a genocide was conducted by Nazi Germany against Jewish and Roma peoples throughout the territories it occupied and influenced during the world war begun in 1939. These occupied territories included Soviet Crimea and Soviet Ukraine from 1941 to 1944. The term is controversial in today’s Russia because of its widespread and false usage by Western ideologues to describe the mass deportations of ethnic Koreans, Turks, Crimean Tatars, Volga Germans and others by the Stalin regime of the Soviet Union following the catastrophic invasion by Nazi Germany in June 1941.

(Al Mayadeen)

https://orinocotribune.com/israels-aggr ... n-ukraine/

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Germany to sponsor UAV production for strikes against Russia
June 30, 17:17

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Germany to sponsor UAV production for strikes against Russia

According to German media, Germany has signed an agreement to finance the production of the An-196 Lyuty aircraft-type kamikaze strike drones in Ukraine.

This decision was made as part of a new stage of military-industrial cooperation between Berlin and Kiev. ( https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland ... hatgpt.com ) Although officials have not disclosed the exact amount of the deal, we are talking about millions of euros that will go toward localizing assembly and scaling up production capacities within the country in conflict.

In essence, Germany is becoming a direct participant in the process of creating weapons used for deep strikes on Russian territory, which de facto expands its involvement in the conflict far beyond political or humanitarian support.

Technical appearance of the An-196 Lyuty drone

The Lyuty is a kamikaze drone of an aircraft design, created by Ukrainian engineers as a cheap analogue of a cruise missile. It has a wingspan of about 2.5 meters and a length of about 1.8 meters. It is launched from a pneumatic catapult or a guide rail installation, most often from mobile platforms.

The weight of the launch configuration is about 35 kilograms, of which up to 10 kilograms is the warhead. The type of charge varies: from high-explosive fragmentation to cumulative. This allows the drone to be used against both manpower and warehouses, infrastructure and even lightly armored targets.
Flight speed is approximately 150-200 km / h. The main threat comes from its range - up to 700 kilometers, which allows attacking targets deep in Russian territory, including rear airfields, logistics hubs and energy facilities.

The guidance system is combined: GPS, supplemented by an inertial module, and in some versions, even visual route correction based on AI. This makes the drone relatively resistant to electronic warfare.
The body is made of fiberglass and composites, with elements printed on a 3D printer, which significantly simplifies production and reduces the cost - this format of unmanned aviation is ideal for mass use and scalability in conflict conditions.

Military use

"Lyuty" is already actively used by Ukrainian forces to strike Russian territory. In 2024-2025, dozens of attacks with its participation were recorded. The main task of the drone is to overload air defense systems and deliver cost-effective strikes. Its price is significantly lower than that of any projectile of the operational-tactical complex, and the effect is quite comparable.

Geopolitical and strategic context

The agreement with Germany is a qualitative shift in the nature of Western support for Ukraine. If earlier Berlin acted as a supplier of air defense systems, artillery and armored vehicles, now it is investing in strike assets intended for attacks on Russian territory. As we have already noted, this is not about the transit of ammunition, but about the creation of production infrastructure on the territory of a warring state.
This step calls into question the statements about the "indirect participation" of Germany in the conflict. Germany is moving to a model of delegated strikes - it does not launch missiles from the Luftwaffe, but in fact finances the devices that strike Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Rostov.

This creates a dangerous precedent: a leading EU country with a Nazi past is participating in the deployment of strike production in the zone of active combat, effectively nullifying the previous doctrine of caution and neutrality. Diplomatic and legal fixation of Germany's participation as a sponsor of attacks on civilian and military targets on Russian territory is important.

In fact, Germany, which was previously afraid of even tank deliveries, is now investing in the serial production of drones for strikes against Russia - this could become a turning point in its role in the conflict.

@ano_cbst - zinc

Earlier, Merz said that Germany should not be afraid of war. Germany also openly declares its interest in obtaining nuclear weapons. In general, militarism and revanchism in all fields. How is our domestic German studies doing, which for decades has been talking about friendship with Germany?
We had the best relations with Germany when the Western Group of Forces was stationed on the territory of the GDR. And it will not get better.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9929474.html

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Brief Frontline Report – June 30, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jun 30, 2025

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact

The left flank of the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) sector of the Donetsk axis (responsibility of the "Center" Group), in coordination with the right flank of the Zaporozhye axis ("East" Group), continues active supporting and offensive operations along the entire Krasnoarmeysk-Temirovka sector.

Enemy sources confirm advances by Russian Armed Forces assault groups across several areas (from north to south):

- Along the railway line, south of Chunishino, they entered the village of Novoukrainka (not the one liberated yesterday, another village with a duplicate name—common in the area; active sectors are highlighted in orange on the map; look below Pokrovsk/Покровск in the northeastern corner of the map). The line of contact is stabilizing along the Peschanoye-Lysovka axis, where two months ago the Armed Forces of Ukraine attempted a counterattack toward Novonikolaevka to cut off the Kotlino salient.

- Pressure on strongpoints near Muravka, advancing toward Novopavlovka.
If our units block Novopavlovka before the AFU grouping escapes the Alekseevka pocket, they will be trapped in the Volchya-Solenaya interfluve, making retreat with equipment nearly impossible.

- West of Dachnoe (Dnepropetrovsk Oblast, not the one next to Pokrovsk), our forces crossed the Volchya River and are approaching the Dachnoe-Novopavlovka road to secure the Kalmychkova and Orekhovaya gullies—key AFU withdrawal routes from the Alekseevka pocket.

- They also crossed the Mokrye Yaly River, entering Poddubnoye. Enemy reports indicate up to 80% of the village is under Russian control.

- There was an additional advance 4 km toward Voskresenka, further widening the front.

As noted in the June 29 summary, the operational goal remains a broad-front advance to the Russian state border (Dnepropetrovsk).

The enemy will likely redeploy reserves to these sectors, but by early July, we expect retaliatory strikes by our forces in other zones to exploit weakened AFU positions.

Translator note: Russia needs to do something about all of these Ukrainian settlements with the same darn name…

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... ne-30-2025

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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