Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Jul 02, 2025 11:47 am

The logic of war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 02/07/2025

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“The massive destruction of residential areas in Kyiv is truly shocking,” said Johann Wadephul, German Foreign Minister, the main European supplier of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and second only to the United States in the overall tally, yesterday during his first visit to Ukraine. The German Foreign Minister's conclusion was clear and unequivocal: “Putin is waging a war of terror, as he is clearly trying to break the Ukrainian people's will to resist.” The solution, which is not to “ignore this war, we must support Ukraine, because Putin's plan must not succeed. Over the past two weeks, we have focused heavily on the conflict with Iran. But this war continues, and we have just seen that Putin is using this situation to continue the war in this region. Resolving this conflict is a central task of German and European foreign policy.” After openly justifying the US and Israeli aggression against Iran, in whose capital images like the one the minister witnessed took place, and after Friedrich Merz admitted that "Israel is doing our dirty work," Germany is demanding that European countries return to focusing on the other proxy war they are waging against another historical enemy.

"Either we win together here, or we lose together," declared Annalena Baerbock's replacement, who, as her predecessor often did, took for granted the moral obligation of Germany and the European Union to support Ukraine as long as necessary , but did not provide a definition of what victory means . The victory-defeat dynamic to which European countries cling implies continuing to fight until they reach a scenario that Kiev decides it can present as a success, possibly going far beyond what it can achieve militarily in a war in which it has become clear that it is capable of dealing very hard blows to Russia, but which it has also shown it cannot win. The conditions of the battle, the strength of both armies (the Russian army with its own resources and the Ukrainian thanks to the resources donated by its allies, who also support the state), and the superiority of defenses over attacks point to an inconclusive outcome that will require negotiations to achieve some kind of resolution.

For the moment, only the United States has grasped this reality, although its failure to achieve negotiations leading to a ceasefire has been resounding so far, partly due to the lack of experience of Trump's foreign policy team. Further complicating the possibility of an agreement is the growing influence of Keith Kellogg, the most pro-Ukrainian member of the White House team, who has effortlessly managed to replace the roadmap proposed by the United States with the European and Ukrainian counterproposal, which makes an affirmative response from Russia practically unfeasible. In this dynamic of lack of negotiation, General Kellogg accused Moscow on Monday of delaying the negotiations. He did so without needing to admit that Russia cannot negotiate with a team whose mandate is precisely to prohibit the discussion of any political issue. “Russian claims that it is the United States and Ukraine that are stalling the peace talks are unfounded. President Trump has been consistent and unyielding in his commitment to making progress toward ending the war. We urge an immediate ceasefire and moving toward trilateral talks to end the war. Russia cannot continue to stall while bombing civilian targets in Ukraine,” the retired US general wrote, giving orders to Moscow. Hours earlier, Russia had denied that it intended to stall while waiting for a more favorable situation and had accused Ukraine of acting in this manner, an idea consistent with the European—and US—position, clearly shared by Keith Kellogg until Trump came to power—of ensuring that Kiev can negotiate from a position of strength. Although Peskov did not emphasize this, the intention to delay negotiations as much as possible in search of concessions from the other side or simply to wait for a better moment is precisely a modus operandi that throughout this conflict can be attributed more to Kiev than to Moscow.

Keith Kellogg's message, which recently used the image of a Russian missile hitting a military factory to denounce attacks on civilian targets, also emphasized the same idea repeated yesterday by the German Foreign Minister in Kiev: Russia's intention to attack non-military targets. Standing in front of the building destroyed in the June 22-23 attack in Kiev, Wadephul was horrified by the consequences of the war, the continuation of which has been the policy of most European countries since 2014. In recent years, visits to the front lines or to the sites affected by the attacks have reinforced previous opinions. The visit to Bucha by the African delegation—to which Mikhail Podolyak stated that they were not at the level of negotiating the Russo-Ukrainian war—did not represent a change of heart but rather a reaffirmation that this war must end, which necessitated a diplomatic process in which they offered to mediate. In kyiv, Wadephul saw the need to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine so that the fight can continue until the minimum objectives are achieved. This stance implies the continuation of ground and air attacks, the impossibility of a ceasefire that would reduce the human suffering that war entails, and also a manipulation of the narrative.

“Zelensky and the media distorted the downing of a Russian missile as a Russian missile and drone attack that destroyed an entire section of a high-rise residential building and killed nine people, including a child,” wrote Ivan Katchanovski this week, referring to the building in front of which the German minister was photographed yesterday. As was evident from the outset, this was not a deliberate attack on a civilian area, even though that has been, and continues to be, the narrative of the Ukrainian political authorities. “On the night of June 22-23, 2025, a downed Russian missile destroyed a section of a four-story residential building in Kyiv's Shevchenko district. Colonel Yury Ihnat warned that a direct hit would have caused even greater damage. Source: Colonel Yury Ihnat, head of the Communications Department of the Ukrainian Air Force Command, speaking to Radio NV ,” the Ukrainian outlet wrote, admitting what the government prefers not to accept, as it would mean giving up using it as an argument. Although the casualties and damage caused by downed Russian missiles are also attributed to Russia, which is guilty of endangering the civilian population by launching projectiles—something that is not repeated on the other side of the front, and Russia is also blamed for any casualties or damage caused by Ukrainian projectiles shot down by Russian defenses—the argument is much weaker and less spectacular than the claim that Russia seeks to demolish residential buildings.

The logic of war is to classify any target hit by Russian missiles, drones, or missiles as civilian targets, and to deny even the possibility of such attacks in the case of Ukrainian attacks. Thus, yesterday the media highlighted a Ukrainian drone attack on various locations in the Russian Federation as a major operation, emphasizing what happened at the furthest point from the front. "On June 27, 2025, Ukraine successfully launched a drone attack against the Marinovka airfield," stated the British intelligence war report yesterday, which, without the need for extensive evidence, added that two SU-34 aircraft had been damaged in an attack 270 kilometers from the border. British intelligence—a source that, despite the disinformation work involved in any security service communications operation, continues to be accepted by the media as impartial—added that “over the weekend, Ukraine also carried out successful drone attacks against helicopter operations at the Kirovskoe airbase (Crimea) and against an ammunition depot in Bryansk.”

Less prominent in the media were the missile attacks carried out on Monday night in both Crimea and Donetsk, where images of the Sokol market, a regular target of Ukrainian artillery when it was still close to the city, left little room for doubt. Ukraine has tried to claim that its attacks on the center of Donetsk targeted a Russian military command center, but the burning market stalls and the body of a civilian hit by shrapnel were graphic enough to negate the Ukrainian narrative. However, the willingness to believe every word coming from the political authorities in Kyiv—even those denied by its own military authorities—and to ignore any opinion, statement, or even image emanating from Russian or Russian-controlled territories means that, no matter what happens, Foreign Minister Merz and other European leaders can continue to boast that Ukraine does not bomb civilian targets.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/02/32520/

Google Translator

******.

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The main points of D. Peskov's statements:

- About the conversation between Putin and Macron: the Russian president has repeatedly spoken about his readiness to engage in dialogue.

- The conversation between Putin and Macron took place at the initiative of the French side.

- The conversation between Putin and Macron was a good opportunity to convey each other's positions, was very meaningful, and lasted more than two hours.

- There were no requests for a conversation with Putin from Great Britain and Germany.

- About the US decision to suspend the supply of a number of weapons to Kiev: as far as we understand, the reason was empty warehouses and a shortage of these weapons.

- The less weapons are supplied to Kiev, the closer the end of the SVO is.


https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

As Conflict in Ukraine Reaches End, Big Question Must Be Answered: What Will Happen to Ukrainian Soldiers Who Chose to Switch Sides?
By Daniel Kovalik - June 30, 2025 0

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Members of the Kyvonos Detachment. [Source: Photo courtesy of Dan Kovalik, 2024]

In the fall, of 2024, I spent a day with the Kyvonos Detachment in the Donbas. This is a volunteer military unit made up entirely of Ukrainian troops who went over to the other side and are now fighting for Russia. Many Westerners would be surprised to learn of the existence of such a military detachment and the reasons why these soldiers chose to fight for the side they initially began fighting against.

Of course, all of these soldiers had their own stories, but there were many commonalities amongst them. One interesting fact is that, to a person, these men see themselves as patriots, fighting for the country that once was but, at least for now, is no more. That is, they believe in a multi-ethnic and multi-religious country which existed prior to the Western-backed coup in 2014, but which has been systematically destroyed by the coup government, including by the current government of Volodymyr Zelensky, who is becoming increasingly unpopular as polls show and whose term ran out almost a year ago with no new elections in sight.

The Western media, which once acknowledged the existence of neo-Nazis in the Ukrainian government and military, now attempt to portray the claims about these “ultra-rightists,” as they label them, as merely “Putin talking points.” However, a number of the troops I met in the Kyvonos Detachment expressed their concerns about the neo-Nazi elements in Kyiv. Indeed, the commander of the unit himself said that he joined the Detachment in order to fight fascism and Nazism—a very common sentiment amongst the people of the Donbas—a region which I have visited four times in the last three years.

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Members of the Kyvonos Detachment. [Source: unitedworldint.com]

The stories of the fighters of the Kyvonos Detachment are worth hearing in their own words, for they portray a very different reality than that shown in the Western press. One of these fighters, who has the nickname “Slave,” explained:

Russians and Ukrainians are not enemies. We have shared history and familial bonds. We have to fight the regime in Kyiv which tries to tell us what to do. In 2023, I wanted a factory job. I was told to go and get a physical for the job at the hospital. When I went, I was forcibly conscripted into the Ukrainian military. Those who forced me into service told me, “now you have a job—to fight on the front.” I was sent to the Donetsk region and decided to change sides almost immediately without fighting.

Another fascinating fellow was nicknamed “Hunger.” He is not the type of person one usually thinks of when thinking about soldiers fighting in the trenches. And the nickname? He was studying at the university writing his Ph.D. dissertation on forest management when he was forcibly conscripted and sent to fight in Donetsk. He was in a fortified area for 22 days. He explained that his Ukrainian military unit was being neglected, and that he saw his comrades dying of hunger and lack of medical attention. And so, he and three other comrades decided to switch sides and join the Russian forces. He still has family on the Ukrainian side with whom he hopes to be united some day.

Another fighter told a similar story—that he and his comrades in the Ukrainian detachment he was fighting with were without food for days, were exhausted, and they asked their commanders to switch them out. They were denied this request. They therefore decided to switch sides and fight to end this war and bring peace to the country. To do so, he believed, they needed to change the regime in Kyiv and get rid of Zelensky.

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Members of the Kyvonos Detachment. [Source: unitedworldint.com]

One of the other members of the detachment, a young man of 23 years of age, explained why he switched sides during the conflict. As he related, “I signed a half-year contract with the Ukrainian forces to fight. I was sent to Donetsk and was there for only five days when I witnessed the Ukrainian army committing massacres of our own people and I opposed this.”

Still, another fighter explained: “I was mobilized into the Ukrainian army and served 2½ years when I switched sides because I did not understand why I had to fight our brother/neighbor state. We want a peaceful future without violence.”

Another fascinating individual gave this story:

I am a historian. My name is Vladimir. I was born in the western part of Ukraine. I love my country, I love Ukraine. I love my people. However, I began to wonder whether the Ukrainian government was really protecting the Ukrainian people who are a multi-ethnic, multi-cultural people. What I saw in Ukraine is that the government was forcing people of different religious and ethnic groups to fight each other….I am an ordinary person. I did not like how they forcibly conscripted people. In the end, I understood that the Ukrainian government made bad decisions and mistreated their own people. One day, the Ukrainian detachment I was with began using [illegal] cluster bombs which killed our own troops and wounded me. The Russian troops came to talk to us and convinced me to join this unit which was newly formed at the time.

Vladimir was very disheartened when Zelensky, giving into pressure from the United States and the UK, backed out of the Istanbul Agreement of March 2022 which could have ended the war quickly and spared many lives.

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Zelensky is more and more hated in Ukraine and seen as a warmonger. [Source: cnn.com]

Finally, another soldier explained to us: “When I was already in this military unit, I was involved in evacuating civilians from the fighting. We were under shelling at the time. I asked myself at the time: ‘Didn’t those doing the shelling see that we were involved in evacuating civilians, in a non-military operation? To whom did these people make a vow?’ I know I am on the right side. They knew what they were doing, whom they were shelling.”

It was obvious to me after spending a day with this Detachment that its members were there of their own volition and were happy to be fighting on the Russian side, which they see as on the right side of the people and history.

Again, this sentiment reflects that of the people generally in the Donbas region who voted in September 2022 to join Russia, and who now would never want to return to Ukraine, at least not the Ukraine run by the ultra-rightists of the post-2014 coup government.

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A woman casts her vote at a mobile ballot box during the Russian presidential election, in the basement of a destroyed apartment building in Avdiivka, in the Donetsk region of Russian-controlled Ukraine, on March 16, 2024. [Source: cnn.com]

As I write these words, the Zelensky government—which has no constitutional authority given that Zelensky’s term ran out long ago—is considering forcibly seizing the property of soldiers like those in the Kyvonos Detachment who decided to fight alongside their Russian brothers.

In addition, the Zelensky government will undoubtedly press in negotiations to have these soldiers returned to the custody of the Ukrainian military which will undoubtedly imprison them, if not outright shoot, them.

It is my firm view that, as the current peace negotiations take place, the civil rights and physical integrity of these brave soldiers, who have acted out of principle and true patriotism, must be fully respected and guaranteed in any resulting agreement.

https://covertactionmagazine.com/2025/0 ... tch-sides/

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THE LUGANSK PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC HAS BEEN LIBERATED FROM THE NAZI TROOPS OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE
Article by Mikhail Popov
Zinderneuf
Jul 01, 2025

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The Lugansk People's Republic

By decree of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR dated June 3, 1938, Voroshilovgrad Oblast was separated from Stalino Oblast of the Ukrainian SSR. It was named in honor of Marshal of the Soviet Union K.E. Voroshilov, a native of the region, with its administrative center in Voroshilovgrad (now Lugansk).

During the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945, the region was occupied by German troops from July 1942 to September 1943.

On March 5, 1958, the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR renamed Voroshilovgrad Oblast to Lugansk Oblast. On January 5, 1970, the name Voroshilovgrad Oblast was restored by decree.

On May 4, 1990, the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR again renamed the region to Lugansk Oblast, and on June 19, 1991, the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR made corresponding changes to the Constitution of the Ukrainian SSR.

From 1991, the oblast was part of Ukraine.

After the 2014 coup in Ukraine, mass protests against the new Ukrainian leadership began in Lugansk.

On April 27, at a rally, the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR) was proclaimed within the Lugansk Oblast. On May 11, a referendum on self-determination was held in the republic, with organizers announcing that 96.2% of voters supported independence. On May 12, the LPR authorities proclaimed the republic's sovereignty. On May 24, the LPR authorities signed an agreement with the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) to create the Union of People's Republics (from July 2014 - Novorossiya; this decision was solidified in 2015).

On May 18, 2014, the Constitution of the LPR was adopted.

By mid-August 2014, the AFU had managed to establish control over territories in western LPR and partially encircle Lugansk. However, in August, the Army of the Southeast was able to push back the enemy somewhat. A ceasefire agreement was reached on September 5, 2014 in Minsk at a meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine.

Amid Ukraine's failure to implement the Minsk agreements on Donbass settlement and escalating tensions on the contact line between LPR forces and the AFU, deputies from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation faction submitted a draft appeal to the State Duma on January 19, 2022, calling on Russian President V.V. Putin to recognize the independence of the DPR and LPR as "independent, sovereign and independent states." On February 15, the State Duma approved the appeal by a majority vote (351 for, 16 against, 1 abstained) and sent it to the President of Russia.

On February 17, the situation on the contact line became even more acute. The LPR reported the most intense shelling by the AFU in recent months, while the OSCE reported a sharp increase in hostilities. The evacuation of the republic's population to Russia began, with Russian authorities guaranteeing temporary asylum to refugees. Mobilization was announced in the LPR.

On February 21, 2022, LPR and DPR leaders L.I. Pasechnik and D.V. Pushilin appealed to V.V. Putin to recognize the independence of the Donbass republics. The same day, after an expanded meeting with members of the Russian Security Council, V.V. Putin in a televised address to the nation announced recognition of LPR and DPR sovereignty and signed decrees recognizing the LPR and DPR, ordering the Russian Armed Forces to maintain peace in the republics.

After signing the decrees, the LPR and DPR leaders concluded treaties of friendship, cooperation, and mutual assistance with the Russian President, including military assistance.

On February 22, both chambers of the Russian Federal Assembly ratified these documents, and they were signed by V.V. Putin (on February 25, the parties exchanged ratification instruments).

On February 24, 2022, in response to requests for assistance from LPR and DPR leadership, Russia began its Special Military Operation in Ukraine.

From September 23-27, 2022, a referendum was held in the LPR, where the population supported the idea of joining Russia as a federal subject. In accordance with Federal Constitutional Law No. 6-FKZ of October 4, 2022 "On the Admission to the Russian Federation of the Lugansk People's Republic and Formation of a New Constituent Entity Within the Russian Federation - the Lugansk People's Republic" and Federal Law No. 373-FZ of the same date "On Ratification of the Treaty Between the Russian Federation and the Lugansk People's Republic on the Admission to the Russian Federation of the Lugansk People's Republic and Formation of a New Constituent Entity Within the Russian Federation," the LPR was admitted to the Russian Federation. By decree of the President of Russia dated October 4, 2022, L.I. Pasechnik was appointed acting head of the LPR.

On December 30, 2022, the Constitution of the LPR as a constituent entity of the Russian Federation was adopted. On September 23, 2023, at a plenary session of the LPR People's Council, L.I. Pasechnik was elected head of the republic.

On December 22, 2023, the Russian Government approved the state program "Restoration and Socio-Economic Development of the Donetsk People's Republic, Lugansk People's Republic, Zaporozhye Oblast and Kherson Oblast," whose main objectives are overcoming socio-economic backwardness in these regions and achieving by 2030 the average Russian level of quality of life for Russian citizens and all-Russian level of socio-economic development.

On June 30, 2025, LPR Head Leonid Pasechnik announced that the territory of the LPR had been completely liberated from the Nazi invaders of the AFU.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... public-has

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Ukraine Puts Neo-Nazi In Charge Of Government Institution

The government of Ukraine has named a major fascist ideologist as the new head of its history institution.

Poland has an Institute of National Remembrance established to educate, archive, and prosecute crimes against the Polish nation. It goes back to the General Commission for Research on Fascist Crimes, a body established in 1945 focused on investigating the crimes of the Nazi administration in Poland during World War II. It was later expanded to investigate presumed crimes against Poland under communist rule.

In 2006, shortly after the U.S. instigated 'Orange Revolution', Ukraine under then President Viktor Yushchenko established the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory under the cabinet. It was supposed to have a similar role as the Polish institution. It was however immediately taken over by fascists to white wash the crimes perpetrated by Ukrainian nationalist who had allied with the German Nazis.

In 2010, under the Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, it was downgraded to a research institution led by Valery Soldatenko who opposed fascist Ukrainian nationalism.

After the U.S. instigated coup in 2014 Soldatenko was fired. A number of right-wing nationalist followed to lead the Institute of National Memory. In late 2024 the latest one, Anton Drobobovich, was fired for not being sufficiently radical (machine translation):

The Cabinet of Ministers dismissed Anton Drobovich from the post of head of the Institute of National Memory. His contract ended, but they did not renew it.
...
Recall that Drobovich proposed to make the Arch of Freedom of the Ukrainian people in Kiev a symbol of LGBT people. He believes that the dismantling of the monument can be avoided only if its former value is completely replaced.
He also called the Red Army "commie detachments", although he condemned the nationalist march in honor of the SS division "Galicia".


Last week the Ukrainian government named his replacement (machine translation):

Alexander Alferov, a former officer of the Third Assault Brigade and [former] Azov battalion, became the new head of the Institute of National Memory. The decision on the appointment was made by the Cabinet of Ministers.
...
"Alexander Alferov is a Ukrainian historian, TV and radio host, public and military figure. Since 2010, he has been a research associate at the Institute of History of Ukraine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. He is the author, co-author and compiler of 15 books and more than 100 scientific articles. With the beginning of the full-scale invasion, he became an officer of the special operations forces "Azov-Kiev", from September 2022 — an officer of the 3rd separate assault brigade, head of the humanitarian training and information support group of the psychological support department of personnel. At the same time, he was the head of the expert group on de-russification in Kiev. He has the rank of major of the reserve in Kiev," the website of the Ministry of Culture says.


Alferov is a fascist. He was the ideological enforces of the Azov brigade.

Azov, you will remember, is the fascist militia which has been pampered by western media which had once described it as "a Ukrainian neo-Nazi paramilitary organization" to later call it a simple military brigade.

In 2014 the BBC was still warning of it:

[iRun by the extremist Patriot of Ukraine organisation, which considers Jews and other minorities "sub-human", external and calls for a white, Christian crusade against them, it sports three Nazi symbols, external on its insignia: a modified Wolf's Hook, a black sun (or "Hakensonne") and the title Black Corps, which was used by the Waffen SS.
Azov is just one of more than 50 volunteer groups fighting in the east, the vast majority of which are not extremist, yet it seems to enjoy special backing from some top officials: ...[/i]

Azov had since followed the path of the Waffen-SS. It has grown from a volunteer group into a battalion, then a regiment, then a brigade, which was split into two (currently fighting each other), each of which is now being upgraded to corps levels. Azov by now, is a full fledged army which has its own financial sources and does its own recruiting.

Alexander Alferov, the new head of the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory, has been deeply involved with Azov.

In 2014, when the founder and leader of Azov Andriy Biletsky became a member of parliament, Alferov became his press secretary. From winter 2014 to June 2015, he was also the head of the press service of the Azov Regiment.

From April 2022, he was an officer of the Azov-Kyiv Special Forces, and from September an officer of the 3rd Assault Brigade, head of the humanitarian training and information support group of the staff psychological support department.
Marta Havryshko, a Ukrainian historian at the Strassler Center for Holocaust and Genocide Studies at Clark University, commented on Alferov's new position:


Marta Havryshko @HavryshkoMarta - 20:03 UTC · Jun 27, 2025

The first "Azovite" in Zelensky's government has arrived.

Oleksandr Alfyorov is now the head of the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory—the country’s main state memory authority. To get the post, he left the ranks of the Azov 3rd Assault Brigade.

He curated his brigade's museum exhibit in Kyiv, "In Steel Storms," which glorified the Waffen-SS Division Galicia. During his time in the unit, one of its subdivisions began using a modified SS Dirlewanger patch as its official emblem.

So why stop there? Maybe the Institute’s new logo will be the Dirlewanger insignia too 🤔

After his appointment as head the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory Alferov gave an interview (video).

As Strana reported (machine translation):

The new head of the Institute of National Memory told why it is impossible to compare Putin with Hitler

The head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, and the leader of Nazi Germany, Adolf Hitler, cannot be compared, because the latter was educated and "brought up on high culture."
This was stated by the new head of the Institute of National Memory of Ukraine Alexander Alferov.

"How can you compare a person who received a German education, who was an artist, who was brought up on philosophy and, in fact, German culture-high culture-and compare with these people? No way. These are people who cannot be compared," Alferov said.


So Hitler, who never finished school, never pursued a degree, who sold his water color pictures to passer-bys in Munich after the Vienna Academy of Fine Arts had rejected him and who ended up as a private first class after the first world war was of 'higher culture' than Vladimir Putin, who is an actual lawyer with an additional degree in resource economics, a former colonel and black belt judoka?

[Alferov] also believes that it is impossible to compare the peoples of Nazi Germany and today's Russia. He called the Russians" not orcs, but goblins."
"How can you compare the German people, brought up in the spirit of law, obedience, with Protestant or Catholic, in general, powerful Christian ethics, with the people who live there, in the East, with goblins? And they also have their own name-Russians, of course. You know, when they started talking - Orcs, Orcs... No, not Orcs. Orcs are former elves. And these are really Russians," Alferov said.


Just imagine what this dude indoctrinated into the minds of young Azov recruits while he was the head of the humanitarian training of Azov. That he will now be in a role where he can indoctrinate all of Ukraine at a national level does not bode well for the country.

Posted by b on July 1, 2025 at 14:52 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/07/u ... .html#more

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Offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction. June 2025

July 1, 15:04

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Results of the offensive of the "East" group of the Russian Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction during June 2025.
Liberated territories and settlements. The most important achievements are Komar, Shevchenko (along with the lithium deposits that Kiev sold to the Americans), Malinovka.

(Video at link.)

Since the LJ video hosting site has run out of space and won't let me upload new videos, I'll be uploading videos to Rutube for now and embedding them into the journal from there using code.

The broadcast of military operations in Ukraine is here as usual https://t.me/boris_rozhin (if you're interested, subscribe)

P.S. Regarding yesterday's statement by LPR head Pasechnik about the complete liberation of LPR territory. This is not quite true yet. It remains to liberate Nadiya and Novoyegorovka (or rather their ruins) at the westernmost border of the LPR. In general, there's still work to do.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9931091.html

Many grant-eaters went bankrupt...
July 2, 10:51

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USAID programs in Ukraine under the State Department may be terminated this year, Kyiv Post writes.

Rubio announced the day before that USAID was officially ceasing to administer foreign aid programs, with some of them being transferred to the State Department.
According to the publication, the State Department has no legal mechanisms to manage programs related to Ukraine, nor a plan for their legal implementation. We are talking about programs in the areas of healthcare, energy, and cybersecurity.
"Many implementers of these programs have gone bankrupt... I will be very surprised if these contracts survive until the end of the year."

The problem is currently being solved by switching to Europe, which is ready to finance some grant-eaters, but not all. Therefore, the fight at the trough for reduced funding will be fierce.

This also applies to the so-called "Russian opposition," where funding from the United States has already been partially cut, resulting in complaints of "How can we live?!" and "How can we now fight the Putin regime?!" with the aggravation of intra-species struggle in the "Don't gape at someone else's grant money" mode.

The "Belarusian zmagars with the cutlet fairy" have similar problems, the volume of grants has decreased, but they want to fight the "bloody Lukashenko regime" with American money.

P.S. In Ukraine, almost 85% of the media and NGOs were financed by the USA, of which more than 80% through USAID.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9932601.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Jul 03, 2025 11:33 am

Alliances, priorities and arms supplies
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/07/2025

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“When Zelensky first visited Washington, less than a year into the war, he received a hero’s welcome, addressed a joint meeting of Congress, and was promised support and weapons by Mr. Biden as long as needed ,” The New York Times recalled with some nostalgia yesterday , lamenting that “that enthusiasm has long since waned. And as the last arms packages approved during the Biden administration have been withdrawn, so has support for more.” Nothing lasts forever, and sometimes joy is truly fleeting. On Tuesday, Zelensky's first finance minister, Tymofey Mylovanov, boasted about a Bloomberg report stating that "Ukraine is currently a global center of military innovation, producing 40% of its weapons. Drones destroy 70% of Russian military equipment. And Ukrainian industry can produce $36 billion worth of weapons a year, but only spends $12 billion."

In less than 24 hours, the former minister, now one of Ukraine's leading defenders on social media and in the international media, went from pride in Ukraine's military industry to despair over what he presented as "a major victory for isolationists in the internal struggle" and stressed that this success "is hurting Ukraine." "The United States has halted the delivery of Patriot missiles and other weapons to Ukraine," he wrote, quoting the headline of one of the outlets reporting the news, The Wall Street Journal . Politico was the first outlet to raise the alarm about the US decision, based, according to White House spokeswoman Anne Kelly, "on putting U.S. interests first following a Department of Defense review of our nation's military support and assistance to other countries around the world."

“The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine over concerns that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too far. The decision was prompted by Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby and came after a review of the Pentagon's munitions stockpiles, which led to concerns that the total number of artillery rounds, air defense missiles, and precision munitions was plummeting, according to three people familiar with the matter,” Politico wrote . The mention of Colby, who by no means can be described as an isolationist, is relevant. After months of blockage and serious doubts that he would take office in the position for which he had been nominated, Colby finally managed to be confirmed by the Senate after bowing to the demands of Middle East hawks and accepting the narrative of the grave danger that Iran supposedly poses to Israel and the United States.

This position is a 180-degree turn from his usual argument, which was clearly reflected in his 2021 book, *The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict*, in which he frames US international relations in terms of strategic regions in which Washington must have alliances strong enough to prevent the emergence of a counter-hegemonic bloc. According to this argument, the existence of NATO prevents, without further US involvement, the two candidates seeking the role of regional hegemon—Russia and, to a lesser extent for historical reasons, Germany—from forming an alliance that would threaten Washington's position. According to this worldview, the US's network of alliances and the existing hostility toward Iran would also make military intervention in the Middle East unnecessary. According to Colby, the only strategic region the US should currently focus on due to the possibility of a counter-hegemonic bloc—that is, one that is not favorable or subservient to the United States—is the Asia-Pacific. An anti-Russian hawk, Colby views US international relations in terms of the possibilities of a political, economic, or military confrontation with China, and that is where resources should be devoted, not to the unnecessary expansion of NATO in Europe or a useless war against an isolated country like Iran.

However, the United States has not only actively participated in supplying the war in Ukraine and Israel's two active battles—the genocide in Gaza and its attack on Iran—but has also bombed both Iran and, above all, Yemen. In the latter case, Donald Trump claimed the capitulation of the Yemeni Houthis, although the cessation of bombing was actually due to the high cost in terms of material use for the meager results the United States was achieving. And despite the White House's claims yesterday that "the strength of the United States armed forces remains unquestionable," the reason for the suspension of the supply of certain weapons is due to the shortage of such material in US arsenals. "Just ask Iran," Anne Kelly stated, defending the strength of the US military. That mention is also interesting, as it is becoming increasingly clear that the damage inflicted by the penetrating bombs at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz did not succeed in "obliterating" Iran's nuclear program, as Donald Trump repeatedly claims. However, the battle against Iran has had one clear consequence: a shortage of interceptors in Israel's arsenal, which must be replenished by deliveries or sales from the United States. Air defense missiles are the most sensitive material included in the list of weapons whose deliveries to Ukraine are temporarily suspended, something that highlights the limitations of Western countries when fighting several wars at once and also Washington's priorities. Despite its constant attempt to match Israel in importance and value to the West, the White House's priorities have become clear. Just this week, Marco Rubio confirmed the sale of a new multi-million-dollar arms package to Israel.

“The frozen munitions, according to Pentagon officials, include Patriot air defense interceptors, precision artillery shells and missiles that the Ukrainian air force fires from American-made F-16s,” The New York Times wrote yesterday , adding that these weapons have been “critical to Ukraine’s efforts to contain increasingly intense Russian attacks” and that the suspension of their deliveries comes “at a particularly dangerous moment in the three years and four months since the Russian invasion.” Although artillery shells and other material are also on the list of weapons whose supplies are temporarily halted, air defense has been the focus of analysis and concern in recent hours, since it cannot be easily replaced by European countries, either through domestic production or foreign acquisition.

“It is unclear exactly how many weapons are included or how quickly the effect of the pause on the battlefield would be felt, though some American officials said on Tuesday that the munitions were not planned for Ukraine for several months. Just last week, after meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of a NATO meeting in The Hague, Mr. Trump said he was open to selling more arms to Ukraine. But by then, the pause was already being planned at the Pentagon,” The New York Times added . The article admits that, for now, it is not known how many weapons are included in the package of the shipment suspension or “how quickly the effect of the pause on the battlefield will be felt.” The American media outlet does not want to indulge in alarmism or imply that the consequences will be immediate and automatic. However, the article adds that “the signal for Russian President Vladimir Putin may be that the United States is gradually abandoning its role as Ukraine's main supplier of advanced weapons. This, in turn, may encourage Putin to prolong ceasefire talks, thinking that Ukrainian forces will soon run out of ammunition and anti-missile systems.” In other words, although the implications of halting the delivery of certain weapons should not be felt in the short term, the press understands that it will be perceived as a signal to the Russian Federation that they will occur at some point. In their attempt to always present events in terms of the benefits Vladimir Putin can gain, the media have preferred not to see that this type of measure could be a step that brings Russia closer to accepting a ceasefire rather than rejecting it. “The fewer weapons are delivered to Ukraine, the closer the end of the special military operation is,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated yesterday, a Kremlin spokesman who has always framed the war using security factors.

Peskov's statement—qualified by the understanding that the measure is only temporary since "the reason for the decision is an emptying of warehouses, a shortage of weapons in the warehouses"—has brought the opinions of the most optimistic pro-Russian sectors closer together with the most pessimistic pro-Ukrainian ones. "So Zelensky did everything Trump asked: he gave up mining rights, agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, and yet the United States cut off the previously financed arms supply, leaving Ukrainian cities defenseless against Russian missile attacks. A lesson for everyone," wrote The Wall Street Journal journalist Yaroslav Trofimov, without hiding his anger. “Friends, this is very important. Please share it and send this information to the media. The US halting the supply of air defense missiles and other critical weapons is a matter of life and death. If Ukraine runs out of missiles for its air defense systems, Ukrainian cities will have no protection against massive Russian attacks,” warned Anton Gerashchenko, a former advisor to Arsen Avakov.

In response to the news, the Ukrainian government, which told the Financial Times that "we had many of these systems as promised. This significantly affects our planning," admitted that it had not been notified of the suspension of deliveries. Hours earlier, Andriy Ermak wrote on social media that attention should only be paid to official information, not "rumors." Following confirmation of the news, a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that "this is not the time to make weak decisions. It is time to demonstrate strength and send the right signals to Moscow." "The huge number of [Russian] drones, bombs, and missiles, especially ballistic ones, demonstrates the urgency of further strengthening Ukraine's air defenses. We need more interceptors and systems. We are also ready to buy or rent them," it insisted. At a time when it is demanding a sharp increase in supplies, Kiev was surprised yesterday by the opposite decision. With no other cards to play, Ukraine has summoned the chargé d'affaires of the U.S. Embassy, ​​the top U.S. official in the country following the resignation of the previous ambassador, and is appealing for a media campaign to pressure the White House to resume deliveries soon.

That is also Mark Rutte's mission. After his stellar performance at the NATO summit, where as host he shared an appearance with Donald Trump in which he uttered the most memorable phrase—"sometimes, daddy has to use tough language"—the NATO Secretary General was forced to react quickly to the revelations in Politico and other US media outlets. In the game of rhetoric, Rutte had to maneuver between admitting that NATO had not been officially notified by the United States and claiming that there was nothing new in the published information, all while trying to keep the United States happy in order to get what European countries want: an increase in the flow of arms to Ukraine. Trying to balance pleasing the US president with pleading with him not to withhold aid, Mark Rutte chose the safest way to address Donald Trump: an appearance on his favorite television show, Fox & Friends , the Fox News morning show . In the interview, Rutte stated that he fully understands that the United States must always ensure its own interests are covered, but when it comes to Ukraine in the short term, Ukraine cannot do without all the support it can get in the area of ​​munitions and air defense systems.

NATO's rhetoric attempts to exploit the idea of ​​US exceptionalism , so often repeated by its presidents, leading the Secretary General to add that "we cannot do without the practical support of the United States." Within the strategic autonomy of European countries, the main proponents of continuing to fight until Ukraine is in a position of strength to negotiate with Russia, there is no possibility of taking charge of the war and being able to supply the necessary weapons and intelligence to do so with guarantees.

“It's also in the United States' interest that Ukraine not lose this war, and to have a huge Russia now on Europe's borders (and, of course, a secure Europe also means a secure United States), so all of this is completely connected,” Rutte declared, once again raising the specter of security for Europe and the United States, an argument that provoked one of the most tense moments of Zelensky's humiliation at the White House, when the Ukrainian president claimed that Washington doesn't yet feel the danger because it has “a beautiful ocean” as protection, but that it will in the future. Rutte is once again clinging to that idea, although it is perhaps more directed at European countries, as a suggestion to increase their donations and military contributions to Ukraine, than at the White House itself, which has already proven itself immune to this false warning of danger.

“The United States has few reserves after having supported too many wars. And when it comes to priorities, Ukraine is not a prominent figure in Washington. Ukraine's only use to the American ruling classes is to self-destruct in order to weaken Russia, its regional rival. One day they will wake up,” commented American journalist Mark Ames. Wars are not only expensive, but they also require a constant demand for resources that increases as the intensity of the battle increases. Since 2022, Ukraine has repeatedly claimed that Russia would quickly begin to notice the shortage of missiles in its arsenal. Kiev, on the other hand, would always have the certainty that its allies are more numerous and include the world's leading military-industrial power. However, that certainty is also currently shaky. At least temporarily, until the Pentagon replenishes its stockpile of interceptors and other missiles and can resume supplies to Kiev. The question now is when and to what extent this decision will affect Ukraine on the front lines and in the rear, or whether the suspension will be lifted before the effects are felt.

For the moment, media attention has already led the United States to downplay the suspension, suggesting that the effects will not be excessive. Furthermore, Ukraine, which continues to demand an increase in the flow of anti-aircraft material while the suspension of deliveries is being debated, reaffirms its willingness to purchase the material against payment, despite the fact that the weapons are already financed with funds approved by Congress during the final phase of the Biden era. Desperately—and always with other people's money—the Ukrainian government is willing to pay for equipment whose cost has already been covered.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/03/alian ... -de-armas/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The Kremlin reported that Putin and Trump will hold telephone talks tomorrow. They will most likely discuss Ukraine and the Middle East.

The Kremlin also reported that the next round of talks with Ukraine is also being prepared and there are no "snags" there. The Kremlin will not disclose details so as not to interfere with the negotiation process.

In addition, the media reports that another round of prisoner of war exchange will take place today on the border of Belarus and Ukraine. We are waiting for our people to come home.

***

Colonelcassad
The Ukrainians are happy about the strikes on the Poltava TCC.

In general, this is a good way to work with the population of the former Ukraine - to destroy those who hunt them. The strikes on the TCC should be continued, allocating a certain number of "Geraniums" for regular pursuit of man-catchers.

***

Colonelcassad
Why doesn't the war end? Because they make money on it.

We found a document that clearly shows what the system of American weapons supplies to Ukraine looks like. This is not direct aid. This is not a "humanitarian mission." This is business.

It all starts with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense writing a "sheet of request" (LoR). It is checked by American military officials at the US Embassy, ​​then approved by the US European Command, and only then sent to Washington, to the DSCA agency - the Defense Cooperation Agency.

That's where the main thing begins: the preparation of a commercial "sheet of offer and acceptance" (LoA). Who draws it up? The appointed contractor - often a large defense corporation or a departmental office of the US Army. After approval from all parties, the LoA is signed, and the contract is launched.
Purchases are not made directly, but through the mechanism of the US Department of Defense. That is, each cartridge, each drone camera and each rifle is a paid business, where dozens of offices, departments, logisticians and consultants are involved.

And in the end - the "act of completion." A paper that records that the money has been spent, the supplies are formally closed. And that's it. You can start over: a new request, a new offer, new millions.

That's why war is profitable. It works like a mechanism. Like a printer greased with contracts that prints money under the guise of aid.

We are Beregini ! We know: while people fight, corporations get rich.


Colonelcassad
Regarding the feigned surprise of the cocaine Fuhrer's regime by the suspension of US military aid. The State Department officially announced that it had notified Ukraine in advance that part of the military aid to Ukraine would be suspended in the interests of the United States (under the formal pretext of the need to replenish its own arsenals). Accordingly, Kiev knew that the shop was at least temporarily closed, but pretended to the public that they had only just found out. They called the ambassador. They were interested. All in the genre of cheap comedy.

So far, we are talking specifically about ammunition. Missiles for air defense systems, MLRS, aviation and artillery shells. At the same time, there is no talk of stopping the provision of intelligence information, target designation and satellite data. Also, the remaining deliveries under the "Biden package", which have not yet ended, but are expected to end within 1-2 months, will be completed. The adoption of new large aid packages in Congress is not expected in the coming months. But multi-billion dollar deliveries of weapons and ammunition to Israel are expected. The main flow of American anti-missiles will now go to Israel + a little to Taiwan.
Colonelcassad
Today we will tell you a little about the "Foreign Legion" - a project supervised by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

The structure of the "Legion" includes more than 27 different units, which include citizens of the USA, Europe, South American and African countries, for whom killing Slavs is a pleasure, as some of them say "safari".

There are also citizens of the Russian Federation who do not agree with everything that is happening in the country and fled Russia to fight the "Putin regime", but under a foreign flag. They fight in the "Legion of Freedom of Russia", the "Siberia" battalion and the "Russian Volunteer Corps". There are citizens of the Republic of Belarus who fight in the "Kalinovsky Regiment".

These gangs fight against the same Russians, are engaged in sabotage and reconnaissance activities in Russia (Kursk, Bryansk, Voronezh and Belgorod regions), commit terrorist acts and even carry out information and psychological actions.

They report directly to the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, through the so-called "curators" - career military intelligence officers of the Main Intelligence Directorate. Usually they remain in the shadows, but we found out who supervises the Russians and Belarusians from the Main Intelligence Directorate.

Meet Vadim Popik, an officer of the Main Intelligence Directorate.

He graduated from the Faculty of Military Management at the Odessa Military Academy. After graduating from the military institution, he served in various positions in the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, including the 17th Directorate of the Main Intelligence Directorate (intelligence of weapons and military equipment, specializing in the analysis and forecasting of enemy actions in the field of military equipment). He fought in Donbass against his own citizens - a participant in the ATO.
Now he serves in the 3rd operational department of the 10th separate special forces detachment of the 4th special intelligence service of the Main Intelligence Directorate (responsible for reconnaissance and sabotage operations), military rank - major.

He supervised one of the units of the International Legion of Ukraine (part of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine), in which foreign mercenaries have been fighting against Russia since 2022.
Currently, under the leadership of V.I. Popik, separate detachments of former traitor citizens from the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus (the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps, and the Kalinovsky Regiment) are engaged in sabotage and reconnaissance activities on the territory of the Russian and Belarusian borderlands. Did

you want to know who is to blame for the murders of civilians in Suzhdi? We have read the documents of the GUR and can say for sure that Major Popik took direct part in preparing the attack on the Kursk region, and also led terrorist acts, including the blowing up of railway bridges in the Bryansk and Kursk regions in June of this year.

Our friends from Nemesis have long added this person to their website,so those who wish can call him and ask how he got to such a life.

He is not the only GUR member about whom we learned various interesting things. But we cannot tell everything yet. We have given the documents from their computers and smartphones to our friends for analysis. But the time will come and we will definitely tell in all the details the things we know.

We are Beregini! We know everything!

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Major Setback for Ukraine as US Cuts Aid Due to Critical Weapons Shortages
Simplicius
Jul 01, 2025

Politico revealed that the US is reportedly halting supplies of critical weapons systems to Ukraine because the US’ own stockpiles of these have sunk to record lows.

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The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low.

The decision was driven by the Pentagon’s policy chief, Elbridge Colby, and was made after a review of Pentagon munitions stockpiles, leading to concerns that the total number of artillery rounds, air defense missiles and precision munitions was sinking, according to three people familiar with the issue.


The sudden cutback is particularly eye-opening given that Trump just two days ago told reporters he may consider supplying more Patriots to Ukraine. Now, Patriots are one of the main systems on the chopping block:

Included among the items being pulled back are missiles for Patriot air defense systems, precision artillery rounds, Hellfire and other missiles that Ukraine launches from its F-16 fighters and drones.

Note that GMLRS ammo for the HIMARS and 155mm artillery shells are amongst the key systems included, although as of yet I haven’t found any other sources validating these specific claims—rather, they all mention ‘weapons systems’ more ambiguously.

This comes on the heels of another shocking bit of news.

Recall it was May 2024 that the US Army production lines for the 155mm shells claimed to have finally reached 36,000 per month:

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They released a quite ambitious projection, claiming they would hit 100k monthly shells virtually by end of 2025:

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I was one of the few skeptical voices who repeatedly said there’s no way they’ll hit even a fraction of these bogus figures. Well, it turns out I was right again.

You see, in late 2024 the Undersecretary of Defense William Laplante announced the US had supposedly reached the 50k-a-month milestone, a decent increase over the earlier 36k.

But now, breaking reports claim that the US has dropped back down to a mere 40k per month due to huge production problems:

The Army recently told Congress that 155mm production currently stands at 40,000/month. This is, of course, a decrease from the 50,000/m LaPlante stated last year.

We now have a likely explanation for why it fell. The new shell body production facility in Mesquite, TX is massively behind schedule. The first two of three production lines are still not fully completed, and the third is likely to miss its due date.

The Army has formally notified General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems that their management of the facility is being reviewed for breach of contract. They have until July 10 to detail how they might be able to get things back on track.

As a result, the Army's Load, Assemble and Pack capacity exceeds their ability to produce the metal parts of the projectiles. Previously there was a stockpile of shell bodies that were being drawn on by the LAP facilities, but those must have been exhausted, so projectile production has now fallen to 40,000 which is what the other metal parts plants can produce. Mesquite's 3 lines are supposed to produce 10,000 shell bodies each.

-Via Breaking Defense.


This is simply hilarious if true.

Recall I had covered the “new” General Dynamics Mesquite factory before, particularly the fact that it was built by Turkey, featuring Turkish CNC lathes and other equipment, and staffed with Turkish workers. It’s not unlike the TSMC factory in Phoenix which was unable to find ‘suitable’ American workers to ably man the production lines. When I first learned of the Turkish sourcing, I immediately had my doubts that this boondoggle “automated” factory would amount to much; now it seems those doubts have been vindicated.

As reminder, here is the original NYT article on the factory’s origins:

In a warehouse off Lyndon B. Johnson Freeway in an industrial area outside Dallas, the future of American military ammunition production is coming online.

Here, in the Pentagon’s first new major arms plant built since Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkish workers in orange hard hats are busy unpacking wood crates stenciled with the name Repkon, a defense company based in Istanbul, and assembling computer-controlled robots and lathes.


The only question is, was the factory ever even producing the claimed 50k per month, or was that a lie under Biden’s admin? The original report does claim they were drawing on stockpiles of shell casings which have now run out:

Previously there was a stockpile of shell bodies that were being drawn on by the LAP facilities, but those must have been exhausted, so projectile production has now fallen to 40,000..

More details can be found in this report:

Image
https://breakingdefense.com/2025/06/arm ... ion-lines/

Either way, it has now come to pass—again, as predicted long ago—that neither the far flung European promises of mass ammo production nor the slightly more believable American ones have borne out. And on top of that, whatever pitiful amount the US is producing, is now presumably getting cut down even further based on today’s reports of aid-halts from the White House and Pentagon. Russia, in the meantime, continues pumping out an estimated 250-350k shells per month, with more coming from North Korea.

Of course, pro-Ukrainian hardliners will claim artillery no longer matters—drones are the whole game now; we’ll see about that. Stay tuned for an upcoming premium report which will delve much deeper into new findings about Russian production capabilities that fly in the face of previous Western estimates; for now it is beyond the scope of this smaller update.


Now let’s once more take a look at the current battlefield situation.

Russian troops captured the other Malinovka near Gulaipole on the Zaporozhye front:

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Just northeast of there they expanded territory around Komar (circled in red). Though it doesn’t show up on the maps yet, Ukrainian channels are screaming that Russian troops have already reached both Piddubne and Voskresenka:

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In the green circle is recently captured Zirka, from which we have some footage: (Video at link.)

The Vostok group liberated Chervonna Zirka. More footage of the battles for the settlement

One has the situation like this:

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Another view shows that Russian troops are creating a large encirclement here:

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Just a few kilometers east of Zirka, the settlement of Dachne was also recently liberated, which is claimed to be the very first liberated settlement of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast. The DPR’s 114th Brigade conducted the storming:

Video of the liberation of the first settlement in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

The 114th Brigade is showing the flag in liberated Dachne!

Geolocation: 48.047796, 36.818479
(Video at link.)

There were many other small advances and territorial gains between here and Pokrovsk further northeast—too many to list, so for now we’re sticking to the larger settlement captures.

Northeast of Mirnograd on the Pokrovsk line, Russian troops are pushing past recently captured Koptjeve toward the key rear supply road that feeds the entire agglomeration:

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Slowly the noose is tightening on this large Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration, though Russia isn’t in any hurry to rush face-first into the hardened defenses here. It is slowly capturing territory on all the weaker lines adjacent to this frontline in the meantime.

From Ukrainian sources:

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The enemy whines that in June the Russian Armed Forces broke the May record for liberating territory and achieved the greatest successes since November 2024. This is in response to the cocaine Fuhrer's statements about "successes" in stopping the Russian offensive.

The dynamics of the Russian Armed Forces' advancement indicate exactly the opposite.

The spring-summer offensive continues. There is reason to believe that July will be even more difficult for the enemy.


(More at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/maj ... as-us-cuts

******

Attacks On Russia Related Ships Smell Of British / Ukrainian Cooperation

This now seems to happen with some regularity:

An explosion struck the Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker Vilamoura, carrying approximately one million barrels of crude, off Libya’s coast, according to its Greek operator, TMS Tankers. - Greek City Times, Jul 1 2025

The explosion flooded the engine room, disabling the vessel. TMS Tankers reported that the ship, which departed from Zueitina, Libya, en route to Gibraltar, will be towed to Greece on Tuesday or Wednesday. The cause of the explosion remains undisclosed.
The possibility that the Vilamoura was hit by a mine was raised on Friday by security firm Vanguard, but it said that nothing had been confirmed by officials.

The operator distanced itself from speculation that the ship had been targeted by saboteurs.


According to the Financial Times this is at least the fifth tanker (archived) this year that had became casualty of some explosives:

A series of mysterious limpet mine attacks on oil tankers has shaken the shipping world, prompting speculation that the explosions were part of a state-backed sabotage campaign.
Five vessels have been hit by deliberate blasts this year, with the latest incident flooding the engine room of the Greek-owned tanker the Vilamoura last week as it sailed off the coast of Libya.

All the vessels called at Russian ports within weeks of the attacks, prompting some security experts to suggest that Ukraine had a hand in the explosions.


Image

The FT account leaves out a Russian cargo ship that was attacked with explosives and sank in late 2024:

The Russian operator of a cargo ship that sank in the Mediterranean Sea between Spain and Algeria said Thursday that it had been hit by a series of explosions in an act of sabotage.

Oboronlogistica, a state-controlled company that operated the Ursa Major freighter, said it was wrecked by three powerful explosions just above the water line in what it described as a “terrorist attack” that caused it to sink.

It said in a statement carried by Russia’s state RIA Novosti news agency that the explosions left a hole in the ship’s starboard and filled the engine room with acrid smoke, hampering the crew’s attempts to access it. The company added that the damage to the engine room made it impossible to activate pumps and keep the ship afloat.
...
The company said the ship, one of Russia’s largest cargo ships, had sailed from St. Petersburg and was carrying two heavy cranes and other equipment to the port of Vladivostok on Russia’s far eastern coast.


All these attacks seem to have been made with magnetic limpet mines. These get attached to a ships hull while the ship is anchored or moored. They can be exploded by a timer or radio signal.

The campaign against Russian related ships may well be an Ukrainian operation. But I would be astonished to learn that the British are not involved in it.

Ukraine is not known for wide access to ports in the Mediterranean Sea and for the necessary qualified diving specialists. Britain's Special Boat Service is:

The SBS has a subunit dedicated to operating Swimmer Delivery Vehicles (SDVs) known as the SDV Troop.

Such vehicles, launched from submarines, are ideal for installing limpet mines to the hull of unsuspecting ships.

Britain has helped to plan the Ukrainian attack in Kursk. It has been involved in several sabotage operations by the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service on Russian ground. British soldiers are dying on the battlefield in Ukraine.

When investigating the sabotage operations against those ships the Russian counter terrorism forces should look out for British, not for Ukrainian, actors.

Posted by b on July 2, 2025 at 14:26 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/07/a ... .html#more

*****

Over 228,000 people were recruited into the Russian Armed Forces in the first 6 months of 2025
July 2, 16:58

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Over 228,000 people were recruited into the Russian Armed Forces in the first 6 months of 2025.

Medvedev, who oversees the issue of recruitment into the army, reported that from January 1 to July 1, 2025, over 210,000 people were recruited under contract + over 18,000 were recruited into volunteer formations. A total of 228,000 for the 6th month. On average, 20,000 - 30,000 people are raked into the army in Ukraine per month. At the moment, the rate of recruitment of personnel in the Russian Federation exceeds that in Ukraine. Hence the tightening of the hunt for people, threats, calls and other deceptions in order to somehow increase the number of people at the front. At the moment, the average staffing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades is less than 50%.
The changing ratio of personnel is gradually affecting the front, although it cannot be said that the grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine is still sufficient in number. We also have enough brigades and divisions with incomplete staffing. At the same time, our reinforcements come from those who join the army voluntarily, while the enemy has long since exhausted the resource of voluntary enlistment in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The people who were forcibly recruited gradually lower the average level of morale and psychological state within the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9933531.html

US withdraws from war between Russia and Ukraine
July 2, 21:08

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US withdraws from war between Russia and Ukraine (c) NYT

When they turn off the transmission of satellite data and intelligence data, as well as target designations, then we will talk. But for now, this is talk for the benefit of the poor. The US, as before, is directly involved in the war in Ukraine.

Believe only in deeds. Otherwise, it will be like with Iran, which believed too much in negotiations before the start of the war.

P.S. The US has indeed suspended the supply of missiles for the Patriot air defense system and a number of high-precision missile positions. If this is really for a long time, then this is a problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Europe will not be able to close some things without the US.

P.S. 2. Also, today the US lifted sanctions from 11 Russian banks and the Moscow Exchange until the end of 2025.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9933977.html

Google Translator

(From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
To hang noodles on the ears (Russian: вешать лапшу на уши, veshat' lapshu na ushi)[a] is a Russian-language idiomatic expression that means to deceive or fool someone.[1][2] According to journalist Alexander Kleimenov, in both Russian and Ukrainian, it is similar to the English expression to pull somebody's leg,[3][4][5] and author Jag Bhalla agrees.[6] _Yeah, I had to look that up...)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Jul 04, 2025 12:08 pm

Damage control
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 04/07/2025

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“The Pentagon’s decision to halt some arms shipments to Ukraine has surprised even people typically briefed on such matters, including members of Congress, State Department officials, and key European allies, according to six people familiar with the situation. Monday’s surprise move has fueled concern and frustration, even among leading Republicans, that a senior Pentagon official appeared to have disproportionate influence over the decision,” Politico wrote yesterday , continuing the story it had broken just 24 hours earlier. The US outlet illustrated the article with a significant image: Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense, in the background and blurred, and Elbridge Colby, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy at the Pentagon, in the foreground.

It is Colby, an anti-China hawk who believes US foreign policy revolves around preparing for a confrontation with China and who is falsely portrayed as an isolationist, who is currently receiving all the attention and accusations. "The pause was ordered by Pentagon policy director Elbridge Colby and a small circle of advisors due to concerns about the declining stockpiles of some weapons in the United States," the article insists, adding that even Donald Trump's allies are frustrated by the measure. And the hyperbole has quickly become the official line of the US media. “Halting deliveries of these crucial weapons systems to Ukraine now, while Russia is on the march, could have devastating and irreversible consequences. The United States, its European allies, and the world will be less safe if Russia emerges victorious,” stated an alarmist editorial published yesterday by The Washington Post , which supports the Pentagon in its attempt to avoid depleting US stockpiles, but exaggerates the possibility of a Russian victory due to the lack of Patriot missiles. Air combat is now an integral part of warfare, but the battle is about much more than defending against drones and missiles.

Beyond the policy on Ukraine and the freeze on the delivery of air defense interceptor weapons at a time of the rise of drones and missiles on both sides of the warfront, Colby's actions indicate a proactive step in a factional struggle. On one side is the more realistic, less interventionist, and Asia-Pacific-focused faction, while on the other remains the faction closest to the Republican Party of recent decades, known for its Cold War-era belligerence toward Russia and its interventionism in the Middle East. No one really knows where Donald Trump falls on the spectrum uniting the two factions. Such internal rifts are made possible by the fact that a large part of the White House foreign policy team is made up of inexperienced individuals, hawks whose only ideology is hatred, or millionaires whose only qualification for the position is being part of Donald Trump's inner circle. "I think it was all the work of the Department of Defense Policy Director, that Colby," said angrily Republican Michael McCaul, one of the most vocal senators in the media. "I'm not even sure if Rubio was consulted. There's internal division in the White House."

Among those with some knowledge of the more purely military aspect of the foreign policy team, two individuals stand out: Elbridge Colby and General Keith Kellogg. The former is the target of insults from opponents and allies alike over the suspension of certain weapons deliveries to Ukraine. The latter, the most pro-Ukrainian of the Trump team members, seems to be becoming Ermak and Zelensky's hope for a solution to the situation. "Thank you. Your support is important," the head of the President's Office wrote to Meaghan Mobbs, a vocal defender of Ukraine, one of the people Ermak has repeatedly promoted for weeks and the daughter of Keith Kellogg. Mobbs echoed the work of a military technology entrepreneur, who insisted that "the United States should give them the tools they need to win. It's the fastest route to peace, one way or another." The lobbying effort isn't limited to personal relationships or the pressure Ukraine hopes Mobbs and Kellogg will exert on Trump, but extends to the press. "How much money does Ukraine need?" was the headline of a Financial Times article yesterday , which declared that "by far the least expensive policy is to give the country enough to win the war." In the simplified view of war, if suspending the delivery of air defense missiles could spell defeat, increasing them could produce a victory that no one dares to define.

“Clearly, this list is too comprehensive to be attributed solely to concerns about US stockpiles. It’s a message to Ukraine. The question is, what does it say? Perhaps, like the last time the US suspended shipments: Give us more flexibility/concessions in the negotiations?” commented The Economist correspondent Oliver Carroll, referring to the extensive list of weapons the Pentagon has denied to Ukraine. Carroll, in his opinion, believes it would invalidate the argument about the lack of stockpiles and would be a political, rather than a military, signal from the United States.

If the suspension of deliveries is a wake-up call for Ukraine, it must also be a wake-up call for its main supporter, the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen, in her routine of accepting orders from Washington, demanded a redoubling of EU support for Ukraine and described the suspension of some US deliveries as a catalyst for the rearmament she has been advocating for months. "For us, it is a clear signal, a clear message for us to intensify our own support. So we must strengthen our European defense capabilities, not only at the European Union level, but also at the continental level," she insisted. Whatever the United States' logic in deciding what steps to take in Ukraine at any given time, the European Union's response is always to demand an increase in arms supplies to kyiv.

Along the same lines, Ukraine's speech focuses on making Donald Trump see that his circle is wrong and is causing him to make a mistake that could prove fatal for several reasons. “Thousands of warriors defend our skies, including anti-aircraft missile troops. Day and night, they protect us from everything launched to destroy life in Ukraine: Russian missiles, drones, and planes. On the Day of Ukraine's Anti-Aircraft Missile Troops, we thank each and every one of you: those on the front lines protecting our defenders and those making a return to normalcy possible in the rear cities. You save countless lives, wherever you are,” Zelensky wrote yesterday, taking advantage of the happy coincidence that the suspension of air defense missiles coincided with the day the country celebrates the successes of those who operate these systems. “Today, the Ukrainian Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs presented reports, particularly on relations with the United States. On the work front, Ukraine and the United States are clarifying all the details of defense support, including air defense. One way or another, we must ensure the protection of our population,” he had written hours earlier, still confused by Washington’s action taken without prior notification. “We count on continued American support,” he stated yesterday, referring to the arms flow during his visit to Denmark. “I hope that perhaps tomorrow or in the coming days I will be able to discuss this with President Trump,” added Zelensky, who is once again pinning all his hopes on direct communication with the American leader, who just a week ago had pledged to “find some Patriots” for Ukraine.

In case pleas don't work, Ukraine has also relied on the economic argument. As Marco Rubio repeatedly stated during the negotiations, the minerals agreement would act as a shield against possible future attacks, since, as Donald Trump had also insisted, no country will attack Ukraine if there are US interests there. "On the eve of American Independence Day, I joined President Zelensky, Andriy Ermak, and other members of our government in thanking the members of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, recognizing the role they are playing not only in our economy, but in our national resilience," wrote Deputy Prime Minister and signatory of the agreement Yulia Svyrydenko, offering a subtle reminder that the profits of US companies also depend on security. "Our conversation focused on shared priorities: air defense, economic recovery, and long-term industrial cooperation. Patriot systems make no distinctions: they protect civilians, infrastructure, and foreign investment equally," she wrote.

However, arguments may be in short supply, and in their absence, the main resource for convincing Donald Trump is often money. As Politico explained yesterday , beyond continuing to demand that the United States hand over the planned weapons, some of which had already arrived in Poland, Zelensky is preparing a much more pragmatic plan. “The United States is informing Ukraine [of the decision] today in Kyiv, and a phone call between Trump and Zelensky will also be arranged very soon,” said a European diplomat familiar with the planning. “The United States says this is not a pause or a suspension. The United States is still very much in the process of determining how best to support Ukraine's defense. It remains a priority,” the outlet wrote, displaying a European and Ukrainian attitude of denying reality in the hope of being able to quickly change it without having to admit that a certain punishment had occurred.

“As part of the new push, several European governments are exploring plans to purchase US-made weapons from their defense budgets for transfer to Ukraine. The money would count toward NATO's new defense spending figure, but there have been no firm commitments yet. Such transfers would need US government approval, the details of which are being discussed, according to a person familiar with the developing plans. This person, like the others, was granted anonymity to share details of the talks, which had not been previously reported,” Politico explained about the European countries' new negotiating tactic: to bear the cost of acquiring the weapons from the United States and then deliver them to Ukraine. Whatever it takes to ensure the war continues without US resource control measures in regions that are no longer a priority affecting the day-to-day fighting.

Donald Trump's reaction, which, amid the flurry of national political activity, has yet to make a public statement on the matter, and the outcome of his conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky will help determine whether the US president was aware of the measures taken by the Pentagon, whether he supports them or demands retaliation for those who took them, or whether they truly convey a more political than military message.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/04/control-de-danos/

Google Translator

******

From cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Another exchange of prisoners of war took place. Ours have already returned to the territory of Belarus. We are waiting in Moscow in the evening.
We also exchanged 2 more residents of the Kursk region taken hostage.

We do not abandon our own.

***

Colonelcassad
Trump said that arms supplies to Ukraine are continuing, which is actually true, since supplies from the "Biden package" are still continuing. Trump did not specify the status of supplies of missiles for air defense systems and various high-precision weapons.

***

Colonelcassad
Chasov Yar: how much longer until the end?

For the second day, the Internet has been full of reports that Chasov Yar is already over - units of the Russian Armed Forces have completely cleared the city limits (including the Shevchenko microdistrict) and have almost reached Nikolaevka, occupying it along the way. This information is not true; in reality, everything is a little different.

In fact, fighting is already underway in the Shevchenko quarter (🔼48.57398112667052, 37.81971764895394) and on the approaches to the north of Nikolaevka (🔼48.58337305770972, 37.80960806017243), the assault work of the units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is complicated by the huge number of drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the fact that the enemy does not spare its infantry at all, regularly providing reinforcements of manpower to the direction. Based on the above factors, the pace of advancement of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this section of the front is not so fast, but the initiative "on the ground" is entirely with our units.

The main logistics route used by the enemy in this section goes from Konstantinovka through Novodmitrovka - there are more or less suitable roads for these activities and also the main logistics hub of the enemy in the direction (screenshot 1). The supply road is regularly subjected to fire damage by the RF Armed Forces, the current situation at the LBS allows for virtually unhindered attacks on the Ukrainian Armed Forces' transport not only by fiber-optic drones, but also by classic drones with analog communications (thanks to the commanding heights on which Chasov Yar and its adjacent territories are located). Alternative routes through the rolled roads to the west of Nikolaevka are also used (screenshot 2). These routes, in terms of distance from the LBS, are safer for the enemy, but at the same time more time-consuming. The enemy's barrel artillery is also located there, and for now it feels quite at ease.

In fact, the fate of the remaining Chasov Yar garrison of the Ukrainian Armed Forces now depends on the viability of these "arteries", and if the RF Armed Forces units can take the second route under fire control, the end of the battle for Chasov Yar will come quite quickly. Despite the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces Command understands its dire situation in this area, it still continues to saturate the area with infantry in order to somehow gain time to prepare Konstantinovka and nearby settlements for urban battles, which, after the final resolution of the Chasvyarsk issue and the full-fledged occupation of the heights, will become a tasty morsel for our units and another place of fear for the enemy.

The preliminary forecast for the closure of the Chasvyarsk issue, based on the realities of the situation, is from two weeks to a month. Yes, slowly, but such are the realities. The work continues.

@project_nd

Colonelcassad

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Strikes on the TRC
Defeat of the mobilization infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the reaction of the population

Today's strike by Russian kamikaze drones "Geran-2" on the building of the territorial recruitment center (TRC) in Poltava became another example of a targeted impact on the enemy's mobilization system. It is noteworthy that the attack took place during the daytime - during working hours.

More about the strikes on the TRC

- During today's strike, even according to official Ukrainian data, there are dead and wounded, including members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

- Earlier, on June 30, a strike hit the Saksagansky district TRC in Kryvyi Rih, the building was seriously damaged. It is noteworthy that residents actively expressed satisfaction with what happened.

- On the night of June 22, the TRC department in Akkerman ( Belgorod - Dnistrovsky ) in the Odessa region was hit. Comments under the news on social networks are mainly with gratitude to the Russian Armed Forces for the strike.

- Before that, the TRC in the Novobavarsky district in Kharkov burned down . In this case, the versions differed - there were reports of both a drone strike and the actions of saboteurs.

- In April, in Kherson , an aerial bomb strike destroyed the 178th TCC: after the hit, a secondary detonation of the ammunition followed, the building was completely destroyed. However, the facility itself was used as a PVD, and not for its intended purpose.

- The official spokesman for the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Vasily Sarantsev , admitted that the strikes on the TCC are becoming systemic and are aimed at disrupting mobilization processes.

The strikes on the TCC are mostly an open source of pleasure for the population of the territories controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is the very case when the opinions of pro-Russian and loyal to the Ukrainian regime residents completely coincide.

The reason for this phenomenon is that today the TCC is associated with "busification", corruption and open humiliation. They are literally considered scum: for example, in Krivoy Rog there was a recent episode when the TCC did not let people into a bomb shelter, preferring to save themselves.

Therefore, the attacks on the TCC must continue. Each of them is not only an undermining of the mobilization infrastructure, but also an informational and psychological effect and an attack on one of the main symbols of the Kiev regime.

For the overwhelming majority of the Ukrainian population, Russians are far away, and "man-catchers" are right outside the window. The effect of the TCC attacks is multi-layered, paradoxically satisfying both sides.

Colonelcassad
1:03
The main statements made by Ushakov following the conversation between Putin and Trump:

— The conversation lasted almost an hour and was on the same wavelength, businesslike and specific;

— In a conversation with Trump, Putin noted Russia's readiness to continue the negotiation process with Ukraine;

— The Russian President told Trump that Russia will not back down from its goals to eliminate the causes of the conflict in Ukraine;

— The talks in Istanbul will remain bilateral between Russia and Ukraine. Specific dates for the third round of talks were not discussed in the conversation;

— In a conversation with Putin, Trump again raised the issue of an early end to military action in Ukraine;

— The topic of ending US arms supplies to Ukraine was not raised in the conversation today;

— Trump began the conversation with Putin with information about the passage of his economic bill;

— Putin congratulated Trump on US Independence Day and noted Russia's contribution to the formation of American statehood;

— The presidents discussed the situation around Iran and the Middle East in general;

— Putin and Trump discussed the possibility of exchanging films promoting traditional values ​​​​close to the Russian Federation and the US presidential administration;

- Putin and Trump did not discuss the possibility of a meeting today, but "the idea is in the air";

- It is impossible to say who hung up the phone first - Putin or Trump, but the translators were the last to hang up.

***

Colonelcassad
"Ukraine has lost about 40% of its working-age population," says First Deputy Minister of Social Policy Marchak

. Moreover, she voiced data for 2023. Now this figure is an order of magnitude higher.

According to her, another 4-5 million workers are needed to restore the economy. Already, 74% of employers report a shortage of personnel, the average deficit is about 15%.

Today, the labor shortage in Ukraine is estimated by experts at 40-45%, and this figure is rapidly increasing.

Some of the male population of Ukraine is already in the trenches, and some are simply afraid to leave their homes because of the TCC workers.
What kind of work can we talk about? I would like to stay here and live.

According to the NBU forecast, the budget deficit of Ukraine in 2025 will amount to 46.83 billion dollars.

The entire budget of Ukraine for 2025 is set at 95.5 billion. Moreover, the country's income is expected to be 55.8 billion dollars.
The Verkhovna Rada allocated 53.8 billion for the war, that is, the entire revenue portion.

They are going to receive the entire deficit portion of the budget from European donors.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Successes of the Russian Armed Forces in Chasov Yar
July 3, 2025
Rybar

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" The situation in the Kramatorsk direction "

In the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops are conducting intensive combat operations in the area of ​​Chasov Yar . Units of the Russian Armed Forces are expanding the zone of control within the city, advancing on several sections of the direction at once.

More about the situation in the city's surroundings
Russian assault troops have consolidated their positions on the eastern outskirts in the Shevchenko and Levanevsky microdistricts and have driven the enemy out of the Novoseverny microdistrict . The mine area north of the city has also been taken under control. There are reports of assault groups advancing towards Nikolaevka , although they are contradictory.

In response, the Ukrainian command is transferring reserves from other directions. An increase in the activity of Ukrainian tactical aviation is noted, as well as missile strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on positions of Russian troops in the Artemovsk area .

The sky above the combat area is crowded with UAVs, which makes it difficult for the Russian Armed Forces to advance, especially outside dense urban areas. There are not many unmined shelters left in the city limits.

On the southern flank, heavy fighting continues in the Stupochki area near the T-05-04 highway . The Ukrainian Armed Forces are carrying out subversive actions and destroying defensible buildings in an attempt to slow the Russian advance towards Konstantinovka .

Despite stubborn resistance from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russian troops are methodically advancing, expanding their penetration points in the direction of key points of Ukrainian defense.

https://rybar.ru/uspehi-vs-rf-chasovom-yare/

Google Translator

*****

That's The "Level" ...

... of these guys.


The Ukrainian Armed Forces dictate the tactical agenda of the Russian army, allowing it to capture more and more new territories, but these are low-lying and marshy lands. Chuck Pfarrer, former squadron commander of the 6th detachment of the US Navy SEALs, stated this in an interview with political strategist and head of the NGO “For a Free Ukraine” Jason Smart, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.

A strong butthurt I feel in this man))

Smart decided to soften the effect of this admission by telling the story that “people in Russia are unsettled and nervous,” and that Russian President Vladimir Putin “stutters like he hasn’t stuttered in the last 20 years.” Realizing that he had been stupid in acknowledging the Russians’ successes, Pfarrer also began to invent stories about Russian soldiers surrendering en masse.

"They don't feed them. They don't get any support. They don't have food. They don't get medical care. Look, if you don't have bullets, bandages and beans, you're not a soldier, you're homeless," Pfarrer raved.


Yes, Russians are finishing last pickled hedgehogs))

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/0 ... level.html

******

War update: back to the madhouse

'The most fucked up satire I've ever seen'. Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk. Zombie units, false reports, desertions. Throwing away men for the administrative border.

Events in Ukraine
Jul 03, 2025

The past week I’ve been looking at political tensions within Ukraine. They’ve been inflamed over the course of 2025 largely because Trump’s attitude has given succor to Zelensky’s enemies. However, the Office of the President is unlikely to actually lose control of the situation, bar serious defeats on the frontline.

Today we’ll be taking a look at the current state of the frontline, as related to us by our Ukrainian militarist friends on telegram. I’d also like to give a shout out to Pavel Durov for his unwillingness to fix the telegram translate feature, possibly on the request of the French government. Thanks to him, the following content is even more exclusive than usual.

Today, our topics include:

— Detailed analysis of the current situation on the Sumy, southern Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia frontlines

— Useless newly-created ‘zombie units’ sent to the Sumy direction, with Ukrainian military bloggers predicting a spike in desertions

— The issue of false reports made by commanders and the general staff regarding the real situation at the frontline

— Weak units wracked by desertion resulting in open flanks for their neighbours

— The debate over whether Russian forces have entered the Dnepropetrovsk oblast, and the reality of an emerging encirclement beneath the Russian spearhead

First, the bigger picture. Ukraine’s main OSINT resource DeepState put out a graph on July 1 showing monthly Russian progress in square kilometers from January 2024 to June 2025:

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🏹 In June, the enemy occupied 556 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, the worst figure recorded in 2025.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... e-madhouse.

*****

Russian Army Deploys Armoured Trains to Resupply Frontline Units in the Donbas
Eastern Europe and Central Asia , Ground
Military Watch Magazine Editorial Staff
July-1st-2025

The Russian Armed Forces have deployed armoured trains to resupply Army units in the disputed Donbas regions for ongoing high intensity engagements with Ukrainian and supporting Western forces. New insight into the use of trains to support logistics was provided by state media’s publication of images of the armoured train Yenisey as part of a “combat coordination” exercise under Battlegroup Centre. Alongside the resupplying of frontline forces, the train has also been use for reconnaissance operations and to support the repair of railway lines. Trains like the Yenisey also retain limited defensive combat capabilities, and integrate ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns and multiple heavy machine gun mounts. Although the Donbas regions claimed by both Ukraine and Russia were integrated into the Ukrainian state before 2014, the railway lines were fully integrated with those in Russia when they were constructed in the Soviet era, allowing for relatively seamless resupply operations.

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BMP-2 Infantry Fighting Vehicle Fires From the Yenisey

The Russian Army has attributed considerable importance to the sustainment and defence of railway lines to resupply frontline forces, contrasting to the norms seen in Western militaries where resupply is predominantly done by sea, road, airdrop and using rotary wing aircraft. The wartime utility of trains operating near the frontlines is expected to be closely observed by states such as China, India and North and South Korea, which retain options for similar resupply operations in major hotspots. Where the large majority of Western combat operations are expeditionary in nature, with the vast majority occurring in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, the Russian Armed Forces and before them the Soviet Armed Forces have for decades primarily focused on preparations for a war in or adjacent to Russian, Soviet, or Warsaw Pact territory, which would allow railways to play a much greater role in logistics efforts.

The derivation of high levels of utility from railway logistics has significant precedents in the Second World War, including for the mass transfer of war materials from the Russian Far East to the Western portions of the USSR to respond to the German-led European invasion in 1941. More recently, railways have played key roles in ferrying supplies both form major weapons depots across the country to their refurbishment facilities or to frontline units, as well as from North Korea, the armaments of which the Russian Army has become increasingly heavily dependant on.

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/artic ... -frontline

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Lots Of Speculation Is Swirling Around The Sumy Front
Andrew Korybko
Jul 03, 2025

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Ukraine claims that Russia is gearing up for a large-scale offensive there, a Russian security source denied any such plans, while the US is closely monitoring the situation.

Trump told the media earlier in the week that “We'll see what happens. I'm watching it very closely” when asked about reports that Russia is gearing up for a large-scale offensive in Ukraine’s Sumy Region. This follows the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) report alleging that Russia has assembled 50,000 troops in preparation for that. A Russian security source denied such plans in comments to TASS, however, and instead described the aforesaid claims as part of a GUR disinfo campaign to fearmonger about Russia.

They also put forth the hypothesis that GUR wants to discredit the Defense Ministry in general and Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky in particular while also claiming that Ukraine also does indeed have quite a few border fortifications there unlike what the WSJ wrote. Whatever the truth may be, what’s known for sure is that Sumy Region falls within the “buffer zone” that Putin spoke about carving out in late May, the strategy of which was analyzed here at the time.

The larger context concerns the realization that “The Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break”. Absent any serious efforts by Trump to coerce Zelensky into the concessions that Putin demands for peace, Russia might thus continue resorting to brute force to ensure its security interests, especially given the window of opportunity that reportedly just opened up. This is connected to Politico’s recent report about the Pentagon halting some promised munitions to Ukraine.

According to their sources, this includes “missiles for Patriot air defense systems, precision artillery rounds, Hellfire and other missiles that Ukraine launches from its F-16 fighters and drones.” The decision was reportedly made in early June, so shortly before Israel launched its sneak attack against Iran on day 61 of Trump’s 60-day deadline for agreeing to a new nuclear deal. The timing consequently suggests that this aid that was promised to Ukraine during the Biden era might have instead been redirected to Israel.

This makes sense seeing as how Trump knew about Bibi’s plans ahead of time and would have likely ordered the Pentagon to prepare for the possibility of a large-scale conflict erupting in the aftermath. The US’ stockpiles were already running low even before the 12-day war that followed, in which the US directly participated by bombing three Iranian nuclear facilities, so it was inevitable in hindsight that the US’ prioritization of Israel’s security needs would come at Ukraine’s expense.

All of this sets the stage for the large-scale offensive that Ukraine claims that Russia is gearing up for, Russia denies, and the US is closely monitoring just in case. On the one hand, Russia could try to take advantage of the reduction in US military aid to Ukraine to push its buffer zone deeper into Sumy Region. On the other hand, it might not be the walk in the park that the WSJ claimed, and Trump could overreact to any major Russian gains by “escalating to de-escalate” at the risk of ruining the fragile peace process.

From his view, the optics of Russia gaining lots of ground right at the moment when the US curtailed crucial military aid to Ukraine could lend false credence to conspiracy theories about collusion between him and Putin, while his legacy would be tarnished if the US then “loses Ukraine” as a result. These perceptions raise the chance that he’d overreact to that scenario. Therefore, Putin might not approve of such military plans to avoid jeopardizing talks with Trump, if he even had those plans to begin with.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/lots-of- ... ing-around

Given that the Russians now finally realize that Trump's word ain't worth shit I don't see them worrying about the 'optics' much. Let Trump suck on it.
What's the Pentagon got left to send?

*****

Brief Frontline Report – July 3rd, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 03, 2025

Kharkov Direction

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The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "On the Kharkov axis, the settlement of Melovoe in Kharkov Oblast has been liberated through decisive combat actions." (Marked on the map with a Russian flag.)

The village of Melovoe (approximately 500 residents) is located near the Russian state border (Belgorod Oblast) on the right bank of the Kozinka River, a tributary of the Oskol River (it can't be seen on the map, but the Kozinka runs along the Russian/Ukrainian border next to Melovoe). On the opposite bank lies the Russian village of Butyrki in Valuysky District of Belgorod Oblast.

Melovoe stretches 6 kilometers along the Kozinka River (which marks the state border) and adjoins the village of Chugunovka (Chuhunovka) upstream. A large forested area borders the village's western outskirts.

While we can not know the exact operational tasks assigned by national leadership to Russian Armed Forces in this sector, we can outline several possible scenarios:

1. The liberated settlements of Topoli, Stroevka and Melovoe in Ukraine's Kharkov Oblast are forming a buffer zone along the state border that will likely expand both laterally (connecting the positions) and in depth to ensure security of Russian territory.

2. Velikiy Burluk - a key Ukrainian command and logistics hub for this axis - lies 22 km west of Melovoe. Access to it is protected by the village of Khatnoye (Ukrainian: Hatnoe), located 8 km from Melovoe. A likely next step would be advancing on Khatnoye, its liberation and establishment of a stronghold to threaten Velikiy Burluk. This would require supporting operations toward Ambarnoe village. Capturing Ambarnoe would enable creation of a fortified zone (Melovoe-Khatnoye-Ambarnoe) with control of strategic heights and ravines leading to the Ukrainian defensive area of Grigorovka (Hryhorovka)-Kolodeznoye-Mitrofanovka, effectively flanking it from the north to enable operations against Velikiy Burluk.

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ЛБС 20.6.2025=June 20th, 2025. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

To the southwest (16 km from Melovoe) lies Kolodeznoye village, which, together with Grigorovka and Mitrofanovka, forms a Ukrainian defensive cluster protecting eastern and southern approaches. This entire sector is held by Ukraine's 151st Separate Mechanized Brigade (155 омпбр).

The terrain northeast of Grigorovka-Kolodeznoye-Mitrofanovka features advantageous ridgelines between the Verkhnyaya Dvurechnaya River and ravines (Tretyakov Yar, Krutaya, Popov Yar; you can see their locations marked by brown Cyrillic text as you move southeast from Ambarnoe) that could facilitate strikes against the Ukrainian flank and center. Any Russian push here would force Ukraine to commit reserves to this sector, potentially weakening other fronts - an opportunity Russian command would likely exploit.

Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) Direction

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Units of the "Center" Group have liberated the settlement of Razino in Donetsk People's Republic through active combat operations." (Marked by a Russian flag.)

The small village of Razino (Razyno on the map, approximately 150 residents) is located on the west bank of the Kazenny Torets River. To secure it, Russian assault units crossed the river, entered the village and cut the Sofiyevka-Novoeconomicheskoe supply route - splitting Ukrainian defensive lines near Rodinskoye and isolating the Vladimirovka-Yablonovka area (a prior Ukrainian reserve deployment zone) from Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk).

By establishing control of the Kazenny Torets' left bank near Razino, Russian forces gain operational flexibility to develop offensives in three directions: north toward Novotoretskoye, west toward Rodinskoye, and south toward Novoeconomicheskoe. All three are suburbs of Pokrovsk, and advances along any axis would enable flanking maneuvers to cut off the city's outer defenses.

The ever tightening noose will progressively dislodge Ukrainian forces from Krasnoarmeysk.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... y-3rd-2025
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Jul 05, 2025 5:05 pm

Deadly attacks
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 05/07/2025

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“Firefighting and debris removal work continues after another Russian attack. This was one of the largest airstrikes, deliberately massive and cynical. In total, 550 targets were launched, including at least 330 Russian-Iranian projectiles, as well as missiles, including ballistic ones,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote yesterday morning. The attack quickly drew widespread condemnation from European diplomats. “Russia's latest deadly attack against Ukraine, carried out in the middle of the night, with the sole purpose of massacring civilians. The entire international community must rise up against this unconscionable barbarity and cruelty,” stated, for example, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. Death was also the line chosen by the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, the only effective government in the country at this time. “Forget the so-called ‘great Russian culture.’ All it ever offers is death. No wonder Russia’s most iconic ‘invention’ is Russian roulette,” wrote Andriy Ermak.

Despite the rhetoric, material damage was reported in the morning, but a limited number of civilian casualties. “Russia launched the largest attack in Ukraine, with 539 drones and 11 missiles, mainly in Kyiv. The attack targeted the Antonov Aircraft Plant and the Zhuliany Airport area in Kyiv. Two apartment buildings were damaged. No civilians were killed during the attack. Military and critical infrastructure targets hit are not reported due to war censorship,” Ukrainian-Canadian academic Ivan Katchanovski commented on social media. The casualty figures, which throughout the day amounted to around 25 civilians injured on the Ukrainian side, are far from the “probably many dead” predicted by Tymofey Mylovanov, Zelensky's Prime Minister, when he denounced the bombing and its timing. “The United States suspended aid yesterday. Trump spoke with Putin yesterday. Trump spoke with Zelensky today,” he commented, simplifying the suspension of some, but by no means all, arms deliveries to Ukraine.

Evidently, none of the strident condemnations issued from Kiev or European capitals omitted the Ukrainian attacks on the other side of the front, some involving the use of drones against all kinds of Russian regions from Izhevsk, 1,200 kilometers from the border, to Sergeyev Posad, a town near Moscow where the only significant infrastructure is a monastery frequently visited by national and international tourists. Added to these attacks is the daily battle and the use of long-range artillery, capable of causing casualties in the same way as missiles. "Four people die in a bombardment by Ukrainian forces on Donetsk," Europa Press headlined yesterday , specifying that the civilians were killed by a Ukrainian projectile, which hit the vehicle they were traveling in in the Petrovsky neighborhood of the Donbass capital. According to the Spanish media, four other people were injured, victims who are not taken into account in Western reports when assessing the situation.

The dynamics of the conflict have not changed in recent weeks, despite editorials in US media outlets such as The Washington Post , which claim the war is "at a turning point." In this context, the narrative revolves not around the facts, but rather around the needs of Kyiv and its European allies. Yesterday morning's Russian attack, which, as has become customary, highlights the total number of missiles fired, ignoring the small number of missiles Russia currently needs to cause damage in Ukraine, coincides with Ukrainian and European nervousness about the US stance toward the war, the negotiation process, and arms supplies.

“We all hope that the United States will continue to support Ukraine and, thanks to Ukraine, Europe. But if there are shortcomings, I personally believe we should be ready to fill them. I am very proud of the cooperation we maintain to support production directly in Ukraine. It is working thanks to you and your companies. But I also want to convey this message to the rest of the European leaders: you have more financing capacity than we do,” said the Danish Prime Minister, who currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union and who this week received Volodymyr Zelensky. Faced with a situation that is becoming increasingly complicated for Ukraine at the front and in the rear, with increasingly difficult defenses and a clear shortage of personnel to cover for losses in its army, European countries continue to rely on increasing military supplies in the hope that a little more time, money, and weapons for Ukraine, combined with increased pressure in the form of sanctions against Russia, will achieve what three years of joint military efforts have failed to achieve. All of this must take place, of course, while rejecting any diplomacy that does not involve imposing unilateral measures on Moscow.

“Any phone call with the subject ‘Putin’ inevitably results in a massive and demonstrative bombardment of Kyiv, with enormous destruction, widespread fires, heavy attacks on residential neighborhoods, and numerous civilian casualties,” Mikhail Podolyak declared yesterday, seeking a cause-and-effect relationship between the Russian president's conversation with the American leader. “The Russian attack occurred just hours after the sixth conversation between the presidents of the United States and Russia.” Andriy Ermak's advisor used the same argument used hours earlier by Volodymyr Zelensky, who had written that “it is worth noting that the first air raid alerts in our cities and regions began to sound yesterday almost simultaneously with press reports of a phone call between President Trump and Putin. Once again, Russia demonstrates that it has no intention of ending the war or terrorism. The air raid alert in Kyiv ended only around 9 a.m. today.” "It was a brutal, sleepless night." Zelensky's rhetoric isn't new, but it's now closer to the stance of Donald Trump, who on Thursday night expressed disappointment with his conversation with Vladimir Putin.

After a phone call that lasted about an hour, the two presidents attempted, apparently without reaching any agreement other than to maintain contact. Donald Trump admitted to the press that no progress had been made and, contrary to his usual assertions that Vladimir Putin wants to end the war, commented that "I don't think he's looking to stop." Russia, for its part, emphasized the openness of the communication and insisted that Vladimir Putin had reaffirmed his objectives and insisted on addressing the causes of the war in the face of demands for a ceasefire without any guarantee of negotiations that would result in a definitive resolution. Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin summed up the situation perfectly when he wrote that “Putin snubbed Trump in his phone call and is not happy. This reflects the persistent belief/illusion in the West that the Kremlin can be pressured to concede on what prompted it to launch the war of aggression in the first place. Putin is waging a successful offensive that is rapidly accelerating. He has no incentive to stop it or to give in on his key demands: neutrality, demilitarization, language and church rights. He will not tolerate any NATO through backroom deals (e.g., the Israel or South Korea format), which is what the Western negotiating position currently amounts to. The only incentive he is willing to offer Ukraine is to stop losing territory if it accepts his terms, which involve a Georgian-style or post-World War II Finnish-style settlement.”

Despite the pressure, Russia is aware that being alone in this war entails a risk of isolation, which it has overcome by focusing on its relations with the Global South. This autonomy also means that, as long as its economy, society, and armed forces remain stable, it will not have to bow to outside orders, as is the case with Ukraine, whose dependence entails the need to beg for help and demand sanctions, but which still fail to convince Moscow to agree to negotiate from a position of inferiority that does not match its strength on the front lines. Its capabilities are all Russia has in this conflict, while Ukraine must rely on those of others. Hence, the most important thing yesterday was not the consequences of the Russian bombing, but the conversation with Donald Trump.

“Today we discussed the current situation, including the Russian airstrikes and broader developments on the front lines. President Trump is very well briefed, and I thank him for his attention to Ukraine. We discussed opportunities in air defense and agreed that we will work together to strengthen the protection of our skies. We also agreed to a meeting between our teams,” Zelensky wrote, without mentioning the news of the week: the suspension of deliveries of weapons such as air interceptors to prioritize the security of the United States and its priority allies. “We had a detailed conversation about defense industry capabilities and joint production. We are ready for direct projects with the United States and believe this is crucial for security, especially regarding drones and related technologies,” insisted the Ukrainian president, whose team considered the outcome of the conversation a major victory. Trump's words are consistent with his statements during the NATO summit, where he insisted that the United States is seeking Patriot missiles to send to Ukraine. Trump's terms, at least judging by Zelensky's description, are vague and do not imply a lifting of the measures imposed this week, but they once again raise kyiv's hopes that this will be the case.

Faced with uncertainty, kyiv is clear that it must use persuasive arguments to make Ukraine important to the United States again. “What an irony. Following tonight’s massive Russian airstrike against Ukraine, we discovered in Kyiv a component of a recently supplied, Chinese-made Russian-Iranian combat drone, “Shahed-136”/“Geran-2.” And just the day before, the Chinese Consulate General building in Odessa suffered minor damage as a result of Russian strikes in the city. There is no better metaphor for how Putin continues to escalate his war and terrorism while involving others, including North Korean troops, Iranian weapons, and some Chinese manufacturers,” wrote Andriy Sibiha, Ukraine’s foreign minister, seeking to focus the Ukrainian conflict in the context of a global struggle that Kyiv presents as freedom versus authoritarianism and in which “security in Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific are inextricably linked. This is not a competition for attention. The fight against Russian aggression and terrorism in Europe directly contributes to improving security in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific.” The message is clear and reflects the reason why the Pentagon's No. 3, Elbridge Colby, this week pushed for a suspension of certain weapons deliveries to Ukraine in order to prioritize other, more strategic regions than Europe, specifically the Asia-Pacific and the confrontation with China. In the Ukrainian imagination, this future war against China, which Colby has been ideologically preparing for several years, already exists and is being fought in Ukraine, which must once again become the center of attention and the main recipient of US weapons.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/05/ataques-mortales/

Google Translator

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From cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
⚡The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation as of 5 July 2025.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.

Units of the North group of forces in the Sumy region have improved the situation along the forward edge. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the mechanized, airborne assault brigades, assault regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Khrapovshchina, Kondratovka, Bessalovka, Sadki, Novaya Sich and Andreyevka in the Sumy region.

- The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 210 servicemen, three combat armoured vehicles, 11 cars, five field artillery guns and three ammunition depots.

Units of the West group of forces inflicted losses on formations of two mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and two territorial defence brigades in the areas of the settlements of Kupyansk, Berezovka, Peschanoye and Petrovka in the Kharkiv region.

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 230 servicemen, eight vehicles and three artillery pieces. Three electronic warfare stations, a US-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station and four ammunition depots were destroyed.

Units of the "Southern" group improved their tactical position. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, an airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Reznikovka, Chasov Yar, Seversk and Konstantinovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The enemy lost up to 140 servicemen, two pickup trucks, a field artillery piece, a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple launch rocket system launcher, an electronic warfare station and a supply depot.

Units of the "Center" group of forces took up more advantageous lines and positions. Defeated the formations of two mechanized, airborne brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two territorial defense brigades, a marine brigade and a national guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Rodinske, Novoekonomicheskoe, Boykovka, Krasnoarmeysk, Grodovka of the Donetsk People's Republic and Novopavlovka of the Dnipropetrovsk region.

- The losses of the Ukrainian armed formations amounted to 440 servicemen, five combat armored vehicles, seven cars, a Grad multiple launch rocket system combat vehicle and five field artillery guns.

Units of the Vostok group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses. Defeated the manpower and equipment of two mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Kamyshevakha, Poddubnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic, Poltavka, Malinovka, Gulyaipole and Temirovka of the Zaporizhia region.

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 155 servicemen, three combat armored vehicles and six cars.

Units of the Dnepr group of forcesdefeated the formations of the mechanized brigade, the coastal defense brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhia region, Tokarevka and Antonovka in the Kherson region.

- The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost over 90 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, six cars and two field artillery guns. Six electronic warfare stations, three ammunition depots and a supply depot were destroyed.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Russian Armed Forces Launch Massive Attack on Ukrainian Targets

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X/ @Cardy38017Anne

July 4, 2025 Hour: 8:26 am

During the week, Russian units liberated Melovoye in the Kharkiv region and Predtechino in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
Between June 28 and July 3, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a large-scale attack on multiple targets in Ukrainian territory. The operations aimed to disrupt Ukraine’s military capabilities, particularly its production and storage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and other robotic attack systems.

“The operations were conducted in response to the terrorist actions of the Kyiv regime. Our primary targets were industrial facilities developing and manufacturing UAVs, FPV drones, and mobile robotic systems, as well as key military infrastructure,” the Russian Defense Ministry stated.

During the week, Russian units liberated towns such as Melovoye in the Kharkiv region and Predtechino in the Donetsk People’s Republic. Additionally, significant advances were reported in the Sumy and Donetsk regions.

In the Sumy region, Russian troops pushed deeper into enemy defenses, attacking mechanized brigades, airborne assault formations, and assault regiments. Russian forces inflicted 1,360 Ukrainian casualties and destroyed five tanks, 17 armored combat vehicles, 34 artillery pieces, and six ammunition depots.


On the western front, units of the Zapad Forces Group improved their tactical positions, eliminating more than 1,550 Ukrainian soldiers and destroying one tank, 14 armored vehicles, and 10 artillery pieces. They also neutralized 16 electronic warfare stations and 28 ammunition depots.

The Russian Defense Ministry emphasized that all assigned objectives during the operations were successfully achieved. The strikes focused on disrupting supply chains and the offensive capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

On Friday, as part of a bilateral agreement reached on June 2 in Istanbul, a group of Russian military personnel was returned from territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. In exchange, a group of Ukrainian Armed Forces prisoners of war was repatriated.

The freed Russian servicemen are currently in Belarus, where they are receiving psychological and medical assistance. They will be transported to the Russian Federation for further treatment and rehabilitation at medical facilities under the Russian Defense Ministry.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/russian- ... n-targets/

Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russia Kill at Least One Civilian

Several civilians were injured, and at least one was killed after Kiev’s drones targeted residential areas in Russian cities.

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Photo: Telegram / rian_ru

July 4, 2025 Hour: 6:36 am

At least one civilian died and several were injured in a drone attack carried out by Ukraine against Moscow and Rostov, Russia. The Ministry of Defense reported that during the past night a total of 48 Ukrainian drones were shot down.


“The military repelled the air attack, but unfortunately it was not without tragic consequences,” Rostov Governor Yuri Sliusar reported on Telegram, announcing the death of an elderly woman caused by the impact of a drone on a residential building.

Two other people were injured in the capital city although their lives are not in danger, according to its governor, Andrei Vorobyov. Additionally, up to 50,000 people were left without electricity in Sergiyev Posad (about 60 kilometers northeast of Moscow), after a fire broke out at an electrical substation caused by the impact of an unmanned aerial vehicle that was shot down.

Officials said Russian air defenses successfully engaged most incoming targets but acknowledged that some drones penetrated the defenses, causing “tragic consequences.” In the Rostov region, 26 of Kiev’s drones were downed; in Kursk, twelve; six over Belgorod; three in Oryol; and one in Lipetsk.

However, the attacks continued in the Udmurtia and Perm regions (Urals), which are about 1,000 kilometers away from Moscow. The governor of Udmurtia, Alexandr Brechalov, reported the downing of three drones, which led to the suspension of public transport in the town of Izhevsk. In that same town, on July 1, a private company was attacked where 33 people were injured, five of them seriously, according to medical authorities.

Airports in the Yaroslavl region, about 200 kilometers from the Russian capital, were also closed due to drones flying over the region.


Meanwhile, Ukrainian authorities report that Russian forces have unleashed a barrage of missile and drone attacks on Kiev. Although many of the videos circulating on Ukrainian social media are blurred, they show widespread fires illuminating the city’s skyline in the aftermath. So far, the Russian Defense Ministry has not confirmed these claims. Nonetheless, it regularly carries out missile and drone operations targeting Ukrainian military sites, asserting that it avoids civilian areas and calling out Kiev for placing its air defense systems within densely populated neighborhoods.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/ukrainia ... -civilian/

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Axis of Evil 2.0[/vb]
July 4, 23:02

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The powers of the axis of evil attacked Ukraine.
The hysteria about the suspension of supplies of some types of anti-aircraft missiles and high-precision weapons to Ukraine is not weakening.
However, for some reason, the European sponsors of the disposal of the Ukrainian population were not counted among the allies either. Apparently they are not giving enough money.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9937687.html

Anti-Nazi raids
July 5, 14:42

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Anti-Nazi raids

In ten cities across the country, verification activities were carried out against the neo-Nazi underground, which the Ukrainian special services use for sabotage and terrorist attacks in Russia.

The main contingent is brainless supporters of the terrorist organizations "Russian Volunteer Corps", "Legion "Freedom of Russia", "Right Sector", "Azov", NS / WP, "Maniacs. The Cult of Murder".

To do this, on assignment from intelligence in Ukraine, teenagers create entire networks of Telegram channels of a right-wing radical orientation. In particular, their channels are dedicated to the Reich, Hitler, the "exploits" of the Nazis during the war.

Young radicals flock to this standard nonsense, who subsequently equip caches for the Ukrainian special services, commit sabotage, explosions, terrorist attacks, conduct reconnaissance of military facilities.

The price of the issue, as a rule, is small - at best, several hundred dollars. Often, the Ukrainian side simply "throws" Russian radicals, for whom cooperation with foreign intelligence services results in long prison terms.

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@opersvodki - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9938536.html

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – July 4th, 2025
Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Jul 04, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Units of the "South" Group have continued advancing deeper into enemy defenses and liberated the settlement of Predtechino in the Donetsk People's Republic."

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The situation in the Chasov Yar area is developing slowly but inexorably. While containing a significant Ukrainian force grouping in their sector, Russian airborne troops are delivering precise and unexpected strikes against sensitive targets.

The Russian Armed Forces have created a threatening situation for Ukrainian troops across several sectors and directions of the Special Military Operation. As soon as some Ukrainian units were redeployed as reserves to threatened areas, a lightning strike was delivered.

Predtechino (approximately 400 residents) is a village located 2 kilometers from Konstantinovka. On May 24, our assault troops liberated the village of Stupochki, and as a natural progression, operations moved toward Predtechino. Forces have firmly consolidated positions, expanded the control zone toward commanding heights, and concentrated materiel and weaponry in this direction. Reconnaissance and surveillance operations were organized. Neighboring units on the left flank reached Dyleevka and pinned down part of enemy forces. Following this, artillery strikes were conducted, allowing entry into the settlement. The main task now is to secure the right flank to enable unconstrained operations on the left.

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ЛБС 09.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 9th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.
Further actions will depend on the enemy's response. However, for any enemy movement, there are counteraction options available - our military leadership maintains both the initiative and operational flexibility. Regardless of how events develop, Ukrainian forces entrenched in positions along the canal near Kleshcheevka and in the Aleksandro-Shultino - Belaya Gora area should prepare for the worst - they will be eliminated.

In operational terms, neighboring units on the left must increase pressure on Yablonovka and Aleksandro-Kalinovo, and it is necessary to break through the Petrovka-Shcherbinovka-Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) stronghold. Once our assault troops reach the Kleban-Byk - Katerinovka sector, the Nazis defending positions to the east will have only one salvation - to flee...

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... y-4th-2025

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Jul 06, 2025 12:55 pm

Contradictions, betrayals and threats
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 06/07/2025

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"Ukraine attacks the Russian airbase in Borisoglebsk and reports several hits against aircraft and arsenals," Europa Press headlined yesterday in a report whose only source was official information from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, part of the war effort and therefore hardly biased. The media do not have the ability to verify many of the headlines they publish, although they do have the option of presenting war reports as allegations from one side rather than absolute truths that require no journalistic work. However, having chosen to be part of the war effort and as providers of military force acting as a proxy in the common war against Russia, the media have not hesitated to accept any statement from Kiev as true, while casting doubt on any word coming from Russia, even those backed up by evidence. In this way, the media combine the publication of articles embracing the triumphalist claim that attacks like yesterday's are "part of the reduction of the enemy's ability to launch air attacks" with the alarmism that has emerged this week over the possibility that the United States will suspend or reduce its delivery of Patriot missiles to Ukraine, the base of Ukrainian air defense. In other words, while Ukraine boasts about reducing Russian air capabilities as a great victory, it is once again promoting the equally false danger of a defeat—not only for itself, but for all of Europe—to reverse the Pentagon's decision to prioritize its needs, those of its closest allies, and those of the region considered strategic.

“They're going to need them to defend themselves… They're going to need something because they're getting hit so hard,” Donald Trump said Friday after his conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky. His words suggested that the interceptors could be removed from the list of weapons whose deliveries are suspended, but they also do not constitute a commitment to do so. Indeed, hours earlier, Trump had insisted, implying that assistance to Ukraine has been excessive, that “we continue to give Ukraine arms and help Ukraine. Biden has sent so much that he's exhausted our own supplies; we also have to prioritize our own defense.” Given that much of Trump's strategy regarding the war in Ukraine is to shift responsibility to European countries, it is foreseeable that the White House will seek to have kyiv's continental allies take charge of the matter. In any case, uncertainty persists over what the United States will do, as does the contradiction between emphasizing the need for arms deliveries and refusing to provide them, a detail that has not been overlooked in Ukraine.

In this regard, too, the contradictions stand out. Aware of his absolute dependence on Western allies and with the experience of his humiliating visit to the White House last February, Volodymyr Zelensky and his team have opted for a strategy of constantly praising Donald Trump and his team and highlighting Ukraine's value in the common defense of Europe and, by extension, the Western world, that is, the United States. Beyond the exaggerated nature of the approach and the implicit acceptance of being the proxy force that dies—and kills—for the common cause, this narrative reflects kyiv's inferior position, at the mercy of its suppliers to continue doing what it wants to do: fight until it achieves the impossible position of strength with which to dictate the terms of the war resolution to Russia.

But that's not the only stance that has emerged this week in Ukraine, where the refusal—at least for the time being—to impose further sanctions on Russia and the announcement of the suspension of some weapons deliveries has been seen as a form of betrayal. "As I predicted, Roman Kostenko, Secretary of Ukraine's Parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence, accused the United States of 'attacking' Ukraine. 'We were attacked by two guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum. Some are trying to seize our territories, others, our minerals,' Kostenko stated. He did not directly mention the United States, but Ukraine signed a minerals agreement with that country, part of which is secret," wrote Ivan Katchanovski earlier this week, stressing that the idea of ​​betrayal and feeling like a country being used would surface at some point in Ukraine.

These statements, which have received little attention, show that discontent with the situation is not limited to a significant portion of the population, which, according to a recent poll, overwhelmingly supports a commitment to ending the war even if it means territorial losses. It also extends to the political establishment , which equates Russia, the enemy Ukraine has been militarily confronting for three years, with the United States, the main supplier of a war in which, whatever happens from now on, Ukraine has lost a lot. “Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the country has lost 40% of its working-age population. To recover the economy, it needs 4 to 5 million people. So all the armchair patriots calling refugees “traitors” who shouldn't return should perhaps start with the basics of economics. And also understand this: the longer the war drags on, the poorer and more depopulated the country will be,” wrote Marta Havryshko, echoing the dire demographic situation the country is facing. “Even under the unlikely assumption that 4 to 5 million refugees will return this year, the UN predicts that Ukraine's population will fall to 15 million by 2100. The war is supposedly intended to save [Ukraine's] identity , but it destroys the regenerative potential of the society that bears it,” added Ukrainian sociologist Volodymyr Ischenko, also highlighting the catastrophe that the war has brought to the country.

“It (still) costs the United States nothing to defeat Russia,” was the headline of a CEPA article at the end of 2024, when it was already clear that Russia was not losing the war in Ukraine. It recalled that “prominent financial analyst Tim Ash sparked a major debate in 2022 with a cost-benefit analysis showing that US aid to Ukraine was cheap at that price.” The conclusion, the same as another article published by The Los Angeles Times at the same time, was that, indeed, the cost-benefit of the war remains positive. The war is paying off for the West, which has invested resources whose loss is not existential in a war in which the country it claims to defend is being decimated of resources and people.

Kostenko's remarks about the attack on the minerals-for-military-assistance deal, a reaction to the perception that the country is being used as a proxy army to demand a share of its wealth, add to the backlash that has been building throughout the week due to news of a likely reduction in US arms deliveries. To the implicit accusations of disloyalty, other statements go a step further. “The Pentagon is going to suspend the supply of some of the promised munitions to Ukraine. In response, the famous Azov native and Third Assault Brigade officer Dmytro “Slip” Kucharchuk threatens the United States with the might of the Ukrainian army: ‘Don’t come asking for help when your own empire collapses. After all, all empires fall.’ I wonder what the congressmen who want to reinstate the US arms ban on Azov think about all this,” Havryshko wrote, highlighting an aggressive message posted by one of the most well-known faces of the Azov region that has been reorganizing these months into the Third Army Corps under the leadership of Andriy Biletsky.

In the simplistic discourse of this war, where donations become loans, arms supplies demand compensation, and aid in colonial extractive agreements, prayers can quickly turn into threats, something that isn't so easy to calculate in terms of cost-benefit.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/06/contr ... -amenazas/

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Russia is already attacking us, Germany must defend itself, - Chancellor Merz

According to the Chancellor, Moscow is "systemically attacking Berlin": from sabotage and cyber attacks to arson and sabotage. He noted that such actions can already be called a hybrid war.

Earlier, Merz reported that Germany discussed with Ukraine the possibility of training in handling Taurus missiles. He emphasized that he does not believe that the transfer of these missiles will make Germany a party to the war.

(How soon before the Reichstag burns?)

***

Colonelcassad
Secretary General Rutte has clearly eaten too many hallucinogenic mushrooms, so beloved by the Dutch. He sees a conspiracy between China and Russia over Taiwan, and then Russia's attack on Europe. However, he is right about one thing: he needs to learn Russian. It might come in handy in a Siberian camp (c) Medvedev

That's how it is. First, at the turn of the 1910s, you condemn Stalinism, and then 15 years later you scare the directors of defense plants with Stalin's telegrams, and the NATO Secretary General with camps in Siberia. 😀

P.S. Since the NATO Secretary General continues to spout out vicious propaganda nonsense in the style of justifying Hitler before his attack on the USSR.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*****

Brief Frontline Report – July 5th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 05, 2025

According to unconfirmed official reports—consistent with updates from the Special Military Operation (SMO) and corroborated by the enemy—the Russian Armed Forces are operating very actively at the junction of the operational zones of the "Center" and "East" Groups. Currently, the initiative in this sector lies with the "East" Group, while the "Center" Group forces are conducting supporting operations.

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact.

The "hottest" sector is the area of Tolstoy-Poddubnoye-Mirnoye-Fedorovka. Russian assault units have crossed the Mokrye Yaly River (Мокрые Ялы) and are advancing toward the villages of Tolstoy, Poddubnoye, and Mirnoye. They have secured positions on the outskirts of Tolstoy, nearly fully control Poddubnoye, and have enveloped Mirnoye from three sides while beginning to push toward Aleksandrovgrad-Voskresenka.

These actions are expanding the bridgehead on the West bank of the Mokrye Yaly River and drawing the main forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the area. Once the enemy manages to send more reserves into this sector—weakening their flanks—one of two other sectors will become more actively targeted by the Russian Forces: either the northern sector (Orekhovo-Novopavlovka) or the southern sector (Shevchenko-Malievka or Shevchenko-Kamyshevakha).

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ЛБС=Line of Combat Contact. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary. Граница областей=Oblast Border*.

Through these alternating efforts, the RF are "thinning out" the enemy's defenses, making them fragmented and unstable.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... y-5th-2025

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Jul 07, 2025 11:48 am

Strategic neutralization, the new recipe for eternal war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 07/07/2025

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“Russia’s war against Ukraine has entered a new phase, defined not by momentum or negotiation, but by strategic stalemate and ideological persistence. Despite the failure of its initial campaigns, Russia shows no intention of ending the war. On the contrary, the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted confrontation and additional offensives, relying on internal repression; growing external alliances, particularly with China; and Western fatigue, coupled with the West’s apparent unwillingness or ability to coerce it toward peace,” writes Andriy Zagorodnyuk , Zelensky’s defense minister from 2019 to 2020 and now a full-time think-tanker, in his latest article published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace . The aim of the article is to offer a new theory of Ukraine’s victory : “strategic neutralization.” Despite the ominous terms, the basis on which the argument rests is the Russian war of attrition, based, according to the article, on the three parameters mentioned in the opening paragraph.

Zagoridnyuk starts from a convenient but fallacious premise. The idea of ​​coercing Russia into peace has been the main, perhaps even only, Western strategy until Donald Trump came to power, and even now it remains the preferred one among European Union countries. More than 20 months have passed since Israel began attacking Gaza with impunity, during which time Israeli bombing has destroyed the Strip, decimated southern Lebanon, damaged Yemen's infrastructure, attacked Iran without provocation, and prevented the flow of humanitarian aid to the Gazan population for months without any Western sanctions. On the contrary, the European Union is now negotiating the 18th set of sanctions against the Russian Federation, expelled from the international payment system necessary for participation in global trade, from sports competitions, and from every Western-led institution that does not depend on the United Nations, where it is protected by its status as a victorious Allied power of the Second World War and a permanent member of the Security Council. To see the failure of the sanctions strategy as a lack of willingness on the part of the West to pressure the Kremlin into a peace that doesn't correspond to the reality of war is a tenet of faith seeking a simple solution to the complex problem of not everyone joining the sanctions and Russia's ability to redirect its trade ties and supply chains.

When explaining Russia's ability to continue waging the current war of attrition, the former Ukrainian defense minister only gets the second premise right: external alliances, although he prefers not to assume that it is the reason why the third, Western coercion, has failed completely. This week, several media outlets reported on the conversation between Kaja Kallas, EU foreign minister, and Wang Yi, in which the Chinese foreign minister confirmed to Brussels what it should have already understood: that China, which is not a party to this war, does not want to see Russia defeated. At a time when both the European Union and the United States are exerting economic and political pressure on China, it is logical that Beijing will not cooperate with Brussels and Washington in their efforts to destroy its neighbor and ally. Still, neither kyiv nor its European allies have given up the false hope of convincing China to join the anti-Russian sanctions or forcing Moscow to accept the negotiation the EU wants to impose, one in which Russia's role is solely to sign the proposed terms.

Even more curious is the idea that one of the foundations of Russia's war of attrition is internal repression, which has been unnecessary since the Russian invasion, as the large-scale mobilizations that Ukraine and the West had hoped for have not occurred. The commitment to a certain form of military Keynesianism, salary increases, and incentives for those who enlist in the army despite the risks involved have maintained the economic situation. Without economic chaos or significant shortages, and with increasing arguments to argue that Russia is not only confronting Ukraine but also the West as a whole, the internal repression Zagorodnyuk mentions will be even more unnecessary. This situation contrasts with the daily images of people being captured and sent to the front lines that occur in Ukraine.

Zagorodnyuk's goal, however, is not to analyze Russian capabilities but to present a framework within which a Ukrainian military victory in the war seems credible, a task he has worked hard on these past few years. “Ukraine can win big. The country has proven time and again that it is capable of defeating Russia. First, it did so by preventing Russia from seizing Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and the Black Sea coast. It did so again by halting Russia's concentrated offensive in Donbass, the eastern Ukrainian region comprising Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, parts of which Russia has occupied since 2014. More recently, Ukraine retook Kharkiv oblast in less than a week, broke through Russian defensive lines in the south, and began liberating parts of the east. The West must join Kyiv to achieve an unequivocal Ukrainian victory,” he wrote in Foreign Policy in the fall of 2022, the moment when Ukraine and its allies failed to foresee that Russia would recover from its defeats. That was also the moment when Kyiv secured the position of strength negotiation it has been seeking ever since. “By the time Ukrainian forces are ready to advance on the peninsula, most Russian capabilities will have been severely damaged,” he wrote in January 2023 in the same outlet, defending “the cause of taking Crimea.” Russia had already been digging the trenches for two months that would prevent Ukraine from even approaching the peninsula that year.

Despite the apparent failure of the ground offensive, in 2024, Zagorodnyuk wrote his “Theory of Ukraine’s Victory,” a text in which he argued that “Ukraine has been clear about its objectives. These include the liberation of all territory within its internationally recognized borders; the return of prisoners of war, deported citizens, and abducted children; justice through prosecution of war crimes and reparations; and the establishment of long-term security arrangements. But Kyiv and its partners still cannot agree on how to achieve this. No one, it seems, has developed a theory for how Kyiv can win,” adding that “that must change.” “The West,” he demanded, “must explicitly state that its goal is a decisive victory for Ukraine and the defeat of Russia,” something that was already evidently impossible at the time, “and it must commit to providing Kyiv with direct military assistance and supporting the country’s burgeoning military industry.”

In other words, Ukraine's theory of victory was a commitment to give kyiv whatever was necessary—not just materiel and funding, but also time—to achieve all its objectives. That remains the theory even in 2025, when Ukraine is experiencing increasing difficulties replenishing its ranks, has lost its Kursk bargaining chip, and Russian advances mean that war reports refer to the Dnipropetrovsk region rather than a Ukrainian rapprochement with Crimea. However, even for those who analyze the war by twisting reality to fit their needs, none of this is realistic today.

“Many Western policymakers have built a long-term strategy for Ukraine based on the assumption that, once hostilities end, it can be strengthened through a combination of domestic production and targeted foreign support to deter further aggression,” he presents as a hypothesis in the event of a ceasefire, before subsequently focusing on the possibility that no truce agreement is possible. “In that case, a strategy based solely on deterrence is not sufficient. Instead of assuming that the war can end through a sweeping battlefield victory or a negotiated compromise, Ukraine and its allies must plan to build a viable, sovereign, and secure state under constant military pressure. This reality demands a redefinition of what a successful outcome means. In this context, the goal should not be to directly defeat Russia or hope that its regime will end the war through economic or diplomatic pressure, but rather to systematically deny it the ability to achieve its military objectives,” Zagorodnyuk argues, focusing on his new theory: strategic neutralization .

The central axis of this strategy is that "turning Ukraine into a 'steel porcupine' has been central to this planning: a country so defensively fortified that any future Russian offensive would fail by design." Mentioning the "coalition of the willing," a more flexible alliance than NATO, the former defense minister is actually proposing the militarization of Ukraine under the guise of deterrence, a dangerous substitute with the potential to erupt again into war, to replace a definitive agreement between the parties to resolve the conflict and eliminate any possibility of military solutions. It is militarization, not diplomacy, that is worth the effort.

“Russia is not preparing to end the war; on the contrary, it is positioning itself for a protracted confrontation. Despite Western hopes for a negotiated ceasefire, Moscow's posture and rhetoric, including recent declarations of “fight forever,” reflect a regime that views time as an asset, not a constraint,” he says after describing the scenario he sees as most favorable for Ukraine at the moment: the militarization of an unresolved conflict, that is, protracted confrontation. The current flawed analysis “is largely due to a persistent Western rationality bias: the belief that Russia must also act according to a cost-benefit logic that follows the West's own analysis. But Russian leader Vladimir Putin operates with a very different logic, determined by his belief that war is existential for both Russia and his regime and by his ideological conviction that Ukraine must be subjugated once and for all,” he adds, again failing to notice that these same arguments also describe Zelensky and his government's perception of the war.

“If Ukraine’s theory of victory is not based on ending the war, but on functionally defeating Russia’s objectives while building a resilient, secure, and sovereign state, then a new strategic framework is required: what I will refer to as ‘strategic neutralization,’” he argues, specifying that “unlike the traditional strategy of attrition, which aims to wear down enemy forces through sustained losses, strategic neutralization focuses on functional denial rather than volume depletion. This distinction is essential for the long-term sustainability of Ukraine’s war effort.”

Zagorodnyuk's strategy is shrouded in technical jargon, with explanations of "functional defeat as an operational objective," "multi-domain operational paralysis," "asymmetric pressure and strategic patience," or "erosion of strategic legitimacy and perceived effectiveness," but it can be summarized in a short fragment. “Strategic neutralization requires sustained efforts to cripple Russia's capabilities in all domains—land, sea, air, cyber, and information—simultaneously. This is not attrition in the classic sense, but rather function denial: Russia must be rendered unable to conduct large-scale offensives, deny Ukrainian airspace, contest the seas, or achieve cyber or information dominance. The strategy is based on disruption and denial, not complete destruction. Each domain must be contested persistently enough that Russian assets lose their strategic relevance, even if they remain intact,” Zagorodnyuk writes, describing a strategy of continuous pressure, protracted conflict, and using Ukraine as a springboard for a confrontation with Russia that has become an eternal multi-domain war.

In case there was any doubt that this strategy seeks to keep the conflict active, Zagorodnyuk mentions the areas of land, sea, air, cyberspace and adds the need for more operations such as Spiderweb , the attack on strategic aviation and nuclear bombers, that is, the Russian nuclear triad, an aspect that could even activate the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation.

“Amid all this talk about the new approach to strategic neutralization of Ukraine (keep fighting until Russia gets bored and gives up),” wrote feminist activist Almut Rochowansku, perfectly capturing the logic of the proposal, “I still think Ukraine has already lost much of the future it potentially could have had, and with every additional month of war, it loses more.” As Ukraine continues to lose population to war and emigration, and opinion polls point to a majority that prefers a settlement to a continuation of the status quo , lobbyists and officials offer only a continuation of an already chronic conflict and argue that it should not be limited to the ground or air fronts, but should extend to all aspects of life.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/07/neutr ... ra-eterna/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Important information for Ukrainians who do not want to become victims of man-catchers.
Using this bot @V_adBot you can report the location of the man-catchers' lair - either their main address in your city, where they take the kidnapped people, or their backup address, where they hide waiting for drone and missile strikes on the TCC. The time of Zelensky's man-catchers' unpunished hunt for Ukrainians is ending. Let's fight back together.

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Colonelcassad
📍Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation as of 6 July 2025.

In the Kharkov direction, units of the mechanized brigade and assault regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 175 servicemen, a tank, an armoured combat vehicle, 11 vehicles and five field artillery pieces. A depot of materiel was destroyed.

Units of the West group of forces, as a result of decisive actions, liberated the settlement of Sobolevka in the Kharkiv region. Formations of four mechanized and assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated . The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost over 230 servicemen, six vehicles and three artillery pieces.
Five electronic warfare stations, a US-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station and four ammunition depots were destroyed.

Units of the Southern group of forces improved their tactical position. Defeated the manpower and equipment of four mechanized, mountain assault, and airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The enemy lost up to 115 servicemen, a vehicle, five field artillery guns, an electronic warfare station, an ammunition depot, and two supply depots.

Units of the Center group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses. Defeated formations of three mechanized, an airborne, and a ranger brigades, and two assault regiments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The losses of the Ukrainian armed formations amounted to more than 390 servicemen, a US-made HMMWV armored vehicle, seven pickups, and four artillery pieces.

As a result of the active and decisive actions of the East group of forces, the settlement of Poddubnoye in the Donetsk People's Republic was liberated.
Defeated the manpower and equipment of three mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 190 servicemen, three armored combat vehicles, five vehicles, and two field artillery guns.

The units of the Dnepr group of forces improved their tactical position. They defeated the formations of the mechanized, mountain assault brigades, three coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Over 70 Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen, three vehicles, a field artillery gun, seven electronic warfare stations, an ammunition depot, four warehouses of material resources and a fuel depot were destroyed.

The Black Sea Fleet destroyed three unmanned boats in the Black Sea.

Air defense systems shot down six guided aerial bombs and 298 unmanned aerial vehicles of the aircraft type.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed :

— 663 aircraft,
— 283 helicopters,
— 67,647 unmanned aerial vehicles,
— 614 anti-aircraft missile systems,
— 24,143 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
— 1,575 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles,
— 27,043 field artillery guns and mortars,
— 37,712 units of special military vehicles.

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Colonelcassad
In the period from 08:30 Moscow time to 14:00 Moscow time, air defense systems on duty destroyed and intercepted 39 Ukrainian aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles :

- 21 UAVs over the territory of the Bryansk region ,
- 7 UAVs over the territory of the Oryol region ,
- 6 UAVs over the territory of the Tula region ,
- 2 UAVs each over the territories of the Belgorod and Kursk regions ,
- 1 UAV over the territory of the Kaluga region .

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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At the gates of Mirnograd
July 6, 2025
Rybar

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" The situation in the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction "

In the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd direction, Russian troops continue to encircle the agglomeration from the northeast. In recent days, the Russian Armed Forces have achieved significant success, greatly expanding the zone of control in the fields near Novoekonomichesky .

More about the situation on the site
In the northern sector, Russian troops have liberated Shevchenko Pervoye and Koptevo, and enemy resistance pockets have been destroyed. There have been reports of their capture before, and now there is confirmation from the ground.

Fierce fighting is also taking place in the territory of Razino and on the southern outskirts of Novotoretskoye . Here, Ukrainian formations are trying to hold the front line along the Kazeny Torets River , forcing which will allow the Russian Armed Forces to reach Rodinskoye .

In the central sector, according to information from the field, the attack aircraft completely drove the enemy out of Malinovka and Mirny , gaining a foothold in the forest belts east of Novoekonomichesky .

In the Novoekonomichesky area , the attack aircraft pushed the enemy back from the approaches to Nikolaevka and entered the southern outskirts of the village. Fierce fighting is currently ongoing in the area.

Judging by the current configuration of the front, we should expect good news directly from Novoekonomichesky in the near future .

The liberation of the village and control over the surrounding waste heaps and mines will effectively open the way for a subsequent assault on Mirnograd bypassing the main enemy line of defense to the south of the city, threatening supply routes and significantly complicating the position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration.

https://rybar.ru/u-vrat-mirnograda/

The capture of Poddubny
July 6, 2025

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" The situation in the Novoselovsky direction "

In the Novoselovsky direction, Russian troops continue to break through the enemy's defenses on the northern flank. Today , footage of objective control appeared on the Internet, indicating the liberation of Poddubny. In addition, according to data from the field, the Russian Armed Forces continued to build on their success and drove enemy units out of most of neighboring Tolstoy.

More about the situation
Fighters from the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army liberated Poddubnoye , which had been under battle for the past few days. Today, footage appeared online showing Russian fighters raising flags in several parts of the village at once.

Then, reports began to arrive confirming the further advance of the Russian Armed Forces in this area. Thus, according to information from the field, Russian attack aircraft managed to dislodge the enemy from most of the area located north of Tolstoy.

At the moment, the main clashes are taking place in the Mirny area , as well as on the approaches to Voskresenka. In addition, in an attempt to slow down the advance of the Russian Armed Forces, in the Novoukrainka area, the enemy blew up a bridge span located on the Volchya River with a drone.

Events continue to develop extremely dynamically. Over the past few weeks, Far Eastern soldiers have made significant progress in this area, occupying four settlements and bringing the liberation of the southeastern part of the DPR even closer.

https://rybar.ru/vzyatie-poddubnogo/

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – July 6th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 06, 2025
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: “Units of the "West" Group liberated the settlement of Sobolevka in the Kharkov region through decisive actions.”

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ЛБС 10.11.24=Line of Combat Contact November 10th, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.25=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 2nd, 2025. Участок Продвижения=Area of Advancement.

The small village of Sobolevka (approximately 80 inhabitants) is located 2 kilometers west of Kupyansk. The settlement adjoins an oak forest area, while 1.5 km to the south runs the H-26 (P07 on western maps) highway connecting Kupyansk with Ukraine's rear areas, with a radial road branching off near Nechvolodovka north toward Velikaya Shapovka. Control of Sobolevka allows Russian forces to cut another supply route to the Kupyansk area and isolate the left flank of Ukrainian forces on the Kupyansk axis from coordination with central command.

This episode clearly demonstrates the methodology of the Russian General Staff for destabilizing Ukrainian defenses.

To recap the development of events on the Kupyansk axis during late May/June-early July (only key events):

🇷🇺 On May 23, the village of Radkovka was liberated, creating a possibility of enveloping Kupyansk from the north.

🇷🇺 On May 30, this success was consolidated, and the operational area expanded through liberation of Kondrashevka, thereby securing the right flank for further operations.

🇷🇺 On June 4, preventing enemy reserves from maneuvering toward the northern advance, movement began southward on the Ukrainian forces' right flank, resulting in liberation of Redkodub.

🇷🇺 On June 18, countering Ukrainian maneuvers near Redkodub, activity increased on the northern sector with the liberation of Dolgenkoye (Dolhenkoe), threatening to split Ukrainian forces' left flank on the Kupyansk axis.

🇷🇺 On June 20, as Ukrainian forces began countering our success near Dolgenkoye, a strike was delivered on the main axis (north of Kupyansk) liberating Moskovka (Myrnoe).

🇷🇺 On June 22, Russian forces again shifted activity to the southern axis, liberating Petrovskoye (Grekovka, not on either of these maps; it's further south near Makeevka).

🇷🇺 On June 27, liberation of Novaya Kruglyakovka (also not on these maps, south of the Kupyansk area, near Borovaya) created a threat to AFU crossings over the Oskol River, forcing the Ukrainian command to reinforce this area.

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ЛБС 20.6.2025=June 20th, 2025. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

🇷🇺 On July 3, a sharp escalation occurred on the Kharkov axis supporting Kupyansk - (Map above, top middle, near the top edge of the map) the liberation of Melovoye and the establishment of a highly advantageous bridgehead in an area that was previously only lightly defended by Ukrainian forces. The enemy was forced to commit already limited reserves to secure this sector, and as soon as they began this maneuver...

🇷🇺 On July 6, a deep enveloping strike was launched into Kupyansk's rear, resulting in liberation of Sobolevka.

For Russian forces, this was a rather risky operation given the narrow advance corridor and potential for Ukrainian strikes against the extended grouping's flanks. Our command could only take such action being confident in reliable flank security and the enemy's lack of capability/resources for counteractions.

This may well represent "Byzantine treachery" or "Mongolian lure" tactics - forcing the enemy to act quickly and reactively while keeping several surprises for them in reserve.

Chess players will recognize this tactic where any opponent's move worsens their position.

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The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Through decisive operations, units of the 'East' Group have liberated the settlement of Poddubnoye in the Donetsk People's Republic."

This substantial village, with a population of approximately 800, represents another strategic gain in establishing a firm bridgehead on the west bank of the Mokrye Yaly (Mokrye Yaly) River at its westmost stretch.

Russian forces continue making steady progress in dismantling the elaborate Ukrainian defensive network situated at the confluence of five waterways: the Volchya (Wolf), Mokrye Yaly, Solenaya, Kamenka, and Voronaya rivers.

Current operational patterns suggest forthcoming Russian efforts will focus on expanding this bridgehead through clearing operations in Tolstoy and Myrnoe settlements, followed by westward advances toward Ukrainian defensive positions between Aleksandrograd and Voskresenka. This offensive pressure will likely continue until Ukrainian command is compelled to redeploy mobile reserve groups to stabilize the sector - reinforcements which can only be drawn from immediately adjacent areas given current force constraints.

The inevitable Ukrainian reinforcement will create opportunities elsewhere along the frontline. As soon as enemy units are diverted to shore up defenses near Poddubnoye, Russian forces will undoubtedly exploit weakened positions in other sectors through coordinated offensive actions.

The rapid pace at which Russian units are systematically dismantling these carefully prepared Ukrainian defensive positions speaks volumes about the current state of Ukraine's armed forces. While remaining dangerous and capable of fierce resistance, they have clearly lost the capacity to wrest operational initiative from Russian commanders. This strategic deficiency resembles an incurable medical condition - while temporary treatments may provide symptomatic relief and prolong the struggle, the ultimate outcome becomes inevitable. When the funeral director already has the patient's address in his records, no amount of medication can alter the final result.

The Ukrainian military continues fighting with intensity, but without the means to reverse the tactical momentum, their position grows increasingly precarious with each passing week of Russian advances. Current operations demonstrate Moscow's forces are now dictating the terms of engagement across multiple sectors of the frontline.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... y-6th-2025

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Intellinews: Three world leaders added to Ukraine Kill list
July 5, 2025

It’s pathetic that the writers at Intellinews (namely Ben Aris) wrote this article in such a sanguine manner, without mentioning that several people have been murdered after appearing on this list after which a red strike is placed over their pictures with the word “liquidated.” All the writers can seem to muster is “some subsequently facing persecution or attacks” and then only mentioning one victim. They should know better than to leave out this important contextual information. – Natylie

Intellinews, 6/12/25

A Ukrainian website that catalogues perceived “enemies of Ukraine” has added several prominent foreign leaders to its database, including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, following their controversial attendance at Victory Day celebrations in Moscow.

The Myrotvorets (Peacemaker) website, established in 2014 by former Ukrainian intelligence operatives, publishes personal information about individuals it deems threats to Ukraine’s national security. The platform has now targeted the three leaders who participated in commemorations marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany on May 9.

According to the website’s operators, Lula “denies Ukraine’s right to resist Russian aggression”, whilst Fico is accused of “promoting Kremlin propaganda narratives”. Milorad Dodik, the outspoken leader of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska entity, has been listed for allegedly attempting to “undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

The move reflects the diplomatic tensions surrounding international engagement with Russia whilst the war in Ukraine continues. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously blasted foreign leaders attending the Moscow celebrations, describing Vladimir Putin’s temporary ceasefire proposals made during the event as a “theatrical performance”.

Lula da Silva

The 79-year-old Brazilian president has maintained close ties with Putin following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a position that has strained relations with Kyiv and drawn Western criticism. During his recent Moscow visit for the Victory Day celebrations, he appealed for a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine.

However, despite attending the May 9 parade, Lula has not spared criticism of Russia’s military operation, setting him apart from the other two leaders listed on Myrotvorets who have taken more pro-Russian stances. During a recent visit to France, the Brazilian leader declared: “I still criticise the Russian occupation of Ukraine. People need to realise this… The mental insanity of war has been more than proven.”

“I told Putin it was time to end the war; I advised him to meet Zelensky in Istanbul. And I regret that he did not go.”

Lula has consistently advocated for an immediate ceasefire and, along with China, launched a UN-sponsored initiative named “Group of Friends of Peace” aimed at proposing talks that would prevent battlefield expansion and conflict escalation.

Brazil’s neutral stance has frustrated some Nato allies, who view Lula’s approach as an impediment to their strategy of maintaining pressure on Russia through continued military support for Ukraine. The president’s inclusion on Myrotvorets represents what critics see as an attempt to delegitimise mediation efforts outside Western diplomatic frameworks.

Brazil’s foreign ministry, Itamaraty, has yet to issue an official response to Lula’s inclusion on the website.

Robert Fico

Fico staged a remarkable political comeback in autumn 2023, returning to power after years in opposition by pivoting towards anti-Ukrainian rhetoric and national conservative positions. This strategic shift revitalised his populist Smer-SD party, allowing it to capitalise on Slovakia’s anti-establishment sentiment, which encompasses both anti-Western and pro-Russian elements amongst the electorate.

After Fico quickly formed a left-right cabinet in 2023 together with Smer’s more moderate split-away party Hlas-SD and the Slovak Nationalist Party (SNS)-led list, which also includes an array of far-right and fundamentalist legislators, both Smer and Hlas were suspended from the Party of European Socialists (PES), the umbrella group for Europe’s Socialist parties.

Fico’s cabinet pushed ahead with sweeping legislative changes to the country’s judiciary, police and restructuring public media, which sparked country-wide protests and put it at odds with the EU over rule of law backsliding concerns, while forging an alliance with the EU’s most pro-Russian leader, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.

Fico stepped up his anti-Ukrainian rhetoric at the end of last year, seizing the opportunity of the long-signalled end to Russian gas transit through Ukraine, and he also made unprecedented appearances on Russian state media. However, Fico has so far avoided an open conflict with Brussels over the EU’s Ukrainian policy despite his repeated threats to block the EU’s new sanctions against Russia, possibly fearing an EU reaction, which could include freezing of EU funds, a lifeline for Slovakia’s slowing economy and widening state budget deficit.

“Fico has very skilfully developed this brand of politics which combines neo-Stalinism with the tradition of Andrej Hlinka [founder of the Slovak People’s Party, which ruled the Nazi-allied World War II puppet state in Slovakia],” Boris Zala, a former founding Smer member, MP and MEP who left the party in 2016 over its corruption scandals and shift rightwards, told bne IntelliNews last November.

“Smer has not been a left-wing party for some time,” Zala continued, adding that today, “Smer is a nationalist-conservative party mixing the nostalgia after [the pre-1989 communist] old regime with Slovak People’s Party rhetoric, thanks to which it can attract neo-Stalinists and Hlinka supporters alike”.

Milorad Dodik

Dodik was also present at the Moscow Victory Day parade and is a frequent traveller to Russia, despite recently being banned from travelling outside of Bosnia. He is an outspoken admirer of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, as well as US President Donald Trump.

In a recent interview with Russian broadcaster RT, Dodik accused the United States, Britain and Germany of escalating the war by provoking Moscow and pursuing geopolitical objectives at Ukraine’s expense. He defended the Kremlin’s military intervention, citing what he described as Ukraine’s persecution of Russian-speaking populations and the Orthodox Church.

A long-term advocate of the secession of Bosnia’s Serb entity, Republika Srpska, Dodik has been behind steps taken by lawmakers in the entity to reject the authority of Bosnia’s state-level institutions — moves analysts warn are pushing the country closer to war than it has been since the 1990s.

After being sentenced to one year in prison for violating state laws in February, Dodik has since initiated legislative changes and taken other steps towards the legal secession of Republika Srpska. In response, Bosnia’s state-level prosecution issued arrest warrants for Dodik, Republika Srpska’s Prime Minister Radovan Viskovic and parliament speaker Nenad Stevandic.

Dodik’s political future now hangs in the balance. He has been in power alternately as Republika Srpska’s president and the Bosnian member of the tripartite state-level presidency since 2010. However, rival parties have banded together to oust his SNSD from power at state level, while Bosnia’s high representative recently cut off funding for the party. He is sanctioned by the US and UK for his efforts to undermine Bosnia’s constitutional order, while Germany has stepped back from investments in Republika Srpska.

Myrotvorets has previously listed journalists, artists, and religious leaders, with some subsequently facing persecution or attacks. The most notable case involved Ukrainian journalist Oles Buzina, who was murdered in Kyiv in 2015, days after his details appeared on the platform.

Whilst the website holds no legal authority, Ukrainian officials have used it as a symbolic tool of pressure. The platform’s activities have drawn criticism from press freedom organisations and diplomatic circles concerned about the potential risks to those listed.

The Kyiv-based database has targeted high-profile figures with alleged close ties to the Kremlin, including former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters for “anti-Ukrainian propaganda”. Other notable entries include former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and former British MP George Galloway.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/07/int ... kill-list/

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Ukrainian attacks on civilians in Donbass reflect Kiev’s desperation

Lucas Leiroz

July 7, 2025

Kiev regime is intensifying its terrorist maneuvers against Russian territory.

The escalation of Ukrainian attacks on civilian areas in Donbass reveals not only the criminal nature of Kiev’s conduct but also the regime’s growing desperation in the face of the Russian forces’ imminent victory. In a new chapter of this terror strategy, recent bombings hit residential neighborhoods in the cities of Donetsk and Gorlovka, killing innocent civilians, destroying essential infrastructure, and with no military value present at the sites.

According to the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, an attack that took place in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk was carried out by Ukrainian armed formations using, apparently, American-made HIMARS rockets. Fragments found at the site point to high-precision cluster missiles, which are currently undergoing technical analysis. The attack targeted a peaceful residential area with no troops or military equipment present, killing four civilians who were in a passenger car as part of a funeral procession. Nearby houses were also hit, causing significant material damage, with the number of victims possibly increasing as investigations continue.

A few days earlier, in the Voroshilovsky district, also in Donetsk, another deliberate attack struck exclusively civilian areas. The Russian investigation states that the missiles used were Storm Shadows – long-range cruise missiles supplied to the Ukrainian army by the United Kingdom. Among the targets were a public market, a bank branch, residential buildings, and even civilian vehicles in transit. One woman died at the scene, and a child was seriously injured. According to eyewitnesses, although air defense systems intercepted some missiles, others managed to hit the urban area.

On the same day, the city of Gorlovka – one of the most important urban centers in the Donetsk People’s Republic – was hit by an aerial assault carried out by Ukrainian explosive drones. One building was completely destroyed, while at least a dozen others suffered varying degrees of structural damage. In addition to residential buildings, healthcare units, pharmacies, and essential service establishments were also affected, demonstrating that the targets chosen were clearly civilian in nature. This pattern of bombardment reinforces the perception that the intention behind these actions is to provoke social disorder and weaken Russian administrative control in the region.

It is noteworthy that this intensification of attacks coincided with the official confirmation of the full retaking of the Lugansk People’s Republic by Russian forces. With the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the area, a prolonged period of instability has come to an end – a development strongly celebrated by the local population. However, this achievement appears to have triggered a hostile response from Kiev, which began venting its frustration on the population centers of Donetsk, still close to the front lines and thus more vulnerable to such offensives.

Faced with its inability to reverse Russia’s military gains on the battlefield, the Ukrainian government has adopted a tactic of reprisal against civilians – a form of psychological and political pressure aimed at halting the Russian advance through fear and social exhaustion. However, this approach has produced results contrary to Kiev’s expectations. The local communities are increasingly aligned with Moscow’s military efforts, realizing that only the complete defeat of the Kiev regime can ensure lasting peace.

Russia’s response has been both strategic and proportional. Precision strikes have targeted key elements of Kiev’s operational capacity, including logistical depots and command centers, even in areas far from the contact line, such as the Ukrainian capital. These actions undermine the enemy’s war infrastructure and limit its ability to continue offensives against civilian targets.

Ultimately, the facts point to an unavoidable conclusion: the worsening of attacks against the Donbass population is a direct reflection of the Ukrainian government’s military and political weakness. Far from intimidating the residents of the liberated regions, these brutal actions only strengthen their conviction that full liberation – led by Russian forces – is the only viable path to restoring normalcy and security in the region.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... speration/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Jul 08, 2025 11:32 am

The NATO issue in Ukrainian discourse
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 08/07/2025

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“In The Hague, we heard: ‘You are among friends,’” wrote Volodymyr Zelensky’s right-hand man, Andriy Ermak, yesterday, referring to the NATO summit. In line with the Ukrainian habit of listening only to the side that favors them, the Ukrainian Green cardinal added that “we are approaching the day when the world will say: ‘You are among allies.’” The NATO summit was the setting for Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s extensive meeting with his American counterpart, who in the subsequent press conference appeared even emotional and promised to seek “missiles for Patriot systems,” a moment of hope for a Ukraine plagued by problems. However, the Alliance’s annual meeting was also the first since 2022 in which Kyiv was not the center of attention and in which it received only a mention in a particularly brief final communiqué. Unfortunately for Zelenskyy, the situation in the Middle East not only stole the spotlight from Ukraine at the NATO summit, but It has also been one of the reasons why the Pentagon temporarily suspended the delivery of some types of weapons to Ukraine, including interceptors for air defense.

Between words and deeds, Ukraine always prefers to cling to promises and demand their fulfillment, regardless of the vagueness of the commitments or the propaganda value of the declarations. This is the case with Ukraine's insistence on joining the Alliance, one of the fundamental causes of the current war and a future demand that Ukraine reiterates, aware that it makes an agreement with Russia significantly more difficult. Yesterday, during his visit to Brazil to participate in the BRICS summit, Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation "since the birth of Jesus Christ" according to Mark Rutte, reiterated Russia's demands for an end to the war, which include recognition of the rights of the Russian-speaking or Russian-cultural population, acceptance of Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territories under the control of Moscow's troops, and Ukraine's neutrality. Obviously, everything will have to be negotiated, and Russia will have to give in to some of its demands. Although it hasn't lost the war, it hasn't won it either. Therefore, like the West, it can't simply impose its conditions.

More important, however, is Lavrov's comment that "these provisions must be included in a binding peace agreement." Whatever is agreed to to stop the war, Moscow hopes it will be final, based on the logic that a conflict concluded falsely is likely to cause a new war or be manipulated in the future. In the case of Ukraine's entry into NATO, which the United States and other allies have abandoned as a short-term requirement due to the lack of unanimity, Russia only has to listen to the statements of certain leaders to confirm its impression. "The second task," stated the Ukrainian Foreign Affairs spokesperson after specifying that the main task of the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul is the humanitarian issue of securing prisoner exchanges and the return of minors held in Russia, "is no less important, politically and communicatively, to prevent anyone from accusing Ukraine of being a party that does not want peace." Sometimes, appearances matter more than facts.

The European intention to reach a minimal agreement that would halt the war but not imply a definitive and binding resolution is paralleled by the intention to manipulate the terms of the ceasefire pact and maneuver to achieve its objectives in the same way that kyiv and its European allies acted during the Minsk years. During that period, Ukraine was recommended to take steps such as unilaterally approving the special status law for Donbas simply to argue to Russia that kyiv had already fulfilled its commitments. The fact that, according to the letter and spirit of the Minsk roadmap, this legislation had to be agreed upon with Donetsk and Luhansk or that it had to enter into force and not simply be approved by a Parliament aware that it was an empty measure was a minor detail. The possibility of repeating this strategy leads Ukraine and European capitals to seek only a ceasefire, while the same motive compels Russia to reach a definitive agreement.

The NATO issue, the main sticking point in the negotiations, perfectly illustrates this intention. “We appreciate Germany’s clear signal: Ukraine’s future lies in NATO. It is important that all partners share this vision. We thank the Chancellor, his team, and the German people for their unwavering support and leadership in European defense assistance,” Zelensky stated after the summit two weeks ago. Despite being aware that the insistence on the NATO issue makes an agreement unfeasible, or perhaps precisely because of it, Zelensky and his team continue to act as if their entry into the Alliance depends solely on the passage of time. “It is realistic to recognize that if one of NATO’s key members—the United States of America—opposes Ukraine’s accession at this time, it simply will not happen in the short or even medium term, however that is defined,” the Finnish president recently stated, adding, however, that it “must remain a possibility” and expressing his hope that it “will ultimately be realized.”

This is also the line Kiev has chosen to follow, whose tactic focuses on convincing its main audience, the US Congress and Senate, and the complex of lobbies and think tanks surrounding them, that Ukraine is the key country in Europe's security. And as Mark Rutte stated last weekend, Europe's security is the protection of the United States. "If you want to defend the United States, you have to make sure three things are secure. You need a secure Arctic, because it's opening up, and the Chinese and the Russians are sailing there. You need a secure Atlantic, because it's your sea; it's crucial. And you need a secure Europe, because Russia is here, and Russia is rebuilding at an incredible pace, not to attack Norway, but to ultimately attack the United States. If the Arctic, if the Atlantic Ocean, if Europe are not secure, the United States has a big problem," he said in an interview published by The New York Times , which should be read as a NATO advertorial.

“Each NATO summit constitutes for Ukraine a vital indicator of the alliance's ability to adapt to new challenges and continue serving as the most effective security guarantee for European countries,” writes Andriy Ermak in his latest article published by The Hill , who is increasingly in the media spotlight, not always for the better. In less than a month, both Politico and The Economist have accused him of the authoritarian drift they observe in Ukraine and have questioned his ability to grasp reality, highlighting his willingness to ignore and distort it. “It is also,” Ermak insists, in an example of this attitude, “an indicator of the extent to which NATO member countries perceive Ukraine as ‘one of their own’ and understand that, just as the alliance invests in Ukraine's security and defense, we invest in Euro-Atlantic security and defense. In essence, it is a mutual investment in Euro-Atlantic security.”

Boasting of the mention of Ukraine in the final communiqué, which announced that military donations to Ukraine will count as military spending toward reaching 5% of GDP, Ermak sees the fulfillment of what he practically understands as the West's ethical commitment to the common war against Russia and states that "this step marks the beginning of a new security mentality within the Alliance: a slow but growing understanding that supporting Ukraine is not only a moral duty toward the victim of the most brutal aggression in Europe since World War II, but also a vital security interest for the Alliance member states, especially in Europe."

The article includes the obligatory mentions of Donald Trump's favorable role, demands that European countries comply with the US order to increase military spending, and requests for more weapons. "The inclusion of long-term support for Ukraine in the new NATO countries' defense spending plans does not remove our urgent defense needs from the agenda, especially regarding additional air defense systems," Ermak insists, referring to the last conversation between Trump and Zelensky, in which the two presidents discussed security cooperation, the beginning of lobbying efforts to achieve the declaration issued last night by the White House, which states that the United States must send more defensive weapons to Ukraine, although the lifting of the Hegseth and Colby measure to suspend the delivery of certain weapons has not yet been specifically announced.

Clearly intending to link the Ukrainian cause to a much more important one for the United States, that of Israel, Ermak once again emphasizes the idea of ​​a global conflict in which the opponents are allies and against whom we must act in a similar manner. “It is important to call things by their name. The prolonged drone terror against Ukrainians is above all the result of the close cooperation between Tehran and Moscow, established at the beginning of the large-scale war. As Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni rightly pointed out, the determination shown toward Iran must also apply to Russia,” she insists, without going so far as to encourage the West to bomb the Russian Federation, but trying to suggest it.

Despite the fact that the United States has openly stated that the NATO issue is one of the root causes of the war, and Donald Trump has even agreed with Russia on the expansion of a hostile alliance to its borders, Ermak insists that “Russia's brazen and persistent efforts to convince the world that Ukraine's NATO aspirations 'forced' it to invade—and that once Ukraine abandons this goal, Russia will magically become constructive and reasonable—have failed once again.” “In NATO capitals, it is becoming increasingly clear that Russia's ultimate goal in its war against Ukraine is not to eliminate Ukrainian ambitions in NATO, but to destroy Ukraine as a state and nation and restore the Russian empire in a new form. In other words, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO is not Putin's ultimate goal, but simply a tool to achieve it,” Ermak states, without any argument to back up, since even the Ukrainian negotiator in the Istanbul process in 2022 explicitly confirmed that Russia was willing to sign an agreement in which the territorial issue did not matter and Ukraine's neutrality was its sole objective. Security remains, three years later, the most important point of the negotiations. However, framing the war in terms of an attempt to destroy the Ukrainian state and nation allows Ermak to persist in his lobbying for NATO accession.

The head of the President's Office reminds European capitals of all the work that "remains to be done," while acknowledging the progress they have made. "Proof of this is that NATO has not revised any of its previous positions on Ukraine's future membership," he insists, referring to the fact that the promise made at the 2008 summit, at which, at the urging of George W. Bush and against the wishes of other Alliance powers, it was mentioned, albeit without giving a date or initiating any process, that both Ukraine and Georgia would, in the future, be members of the club, has not been revoked. This vague promise of the future has been the basis for Ukrainian pressure, US pressure until Trump's arrival, and now European pressure to continue the push for membership, which has caused the current war and caused Ukraine to lose territory, population, and part of its economy. But it has not aroused the desire of its political establishment to join the Cold War alliance, even though that makes any peace agreement impossible unless it is preceded by the victory that Ukraine has been seeking without success for eleven years. “Although these formulations,” Ermak insists, referring to the 2008 promises, repeated annually in the form of assertions about Ukraine’s irreversible path to NATO , “were not repeated in the communiqué, perhaps we should begin to interpret this omission as NATO’s recognition of the irreversibility of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory, as a self-evident truth that no longer requires constant reiteration in every alliance declaration.” The omission—really based on a lack of unanimity and the European decision to wait until the arrival of a post-Trump president—is confused with reaffirmation in the same way that wishes are confused with reality.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/08/32556/

Google Translator

*****

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Forwarded from
Radio Sputnik
1:26
"Russia hasn't been praised like this in Ukrainian social networks for a long time," Boris Rozhin commented on the Geranium strikes on TCC buildings in Ukrainian cities.

"People, some percentage, will themselves send information to anonymous bots: where have the TCC people moved now," Rozhin said.

***

Colonelcassad
Russian strikes on the TCC will lead to Ukrainians refusing to visit them, said the head of the communications department of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Command.

That's the only reason. And before the strikes there were queues of people wanting to go. We had to refuse volunteers and take them home in cars. They still resisted, didn't want to go home, shouted "People, help! I want to go to the front!"

***

Colonelcassad
0:35
0:33
Relatives of killed Ukrainian soldiers whose bodies were returned by Russia are being denied payments.

Many are not even given the body so that they can be buried with dignity — they are required to wait two years.

In order not to pay money, they come up with various arguments — in the spirit of “there were no witnesses to your brother’s death in battle.”

***

Colonelcassad
Trump has again promised to supply weapons to Ukraine.
Earlier, the Trump administration said that the Trump administration had not supplied any new weapons to Ukraine.

***

Colonelcassad
Putin has allowed people without valid Russian citizenship to serve in the Russian Armed Forces.
We are expecting an increase in the number of contract soldiers/volunteers from various interesting countries.

There are only 2-3 days left of Russian passports for those who want to beat up Nazis in Ukraine. Therefore, a decision has been made - you can beat up Nazis without passports.😀

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

TIPPING POINT

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By John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

President Donald Trump thought he had gotten the deal terms and the cover story right, and also the prize for himself (the Nobel Peace Prize ).

The deal was that under cover of an authorized leak to the press from Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Eldridge Colby, that the US was running out of ammunition for Israel’s war with Iran, for the Ukraine war with Russia, and for US military stocks at their DEFCON levels, Trump would pause ammunition deliveries to the regime in Kiev, and then persuade President Vladimir Putin to agree to an immediate ceasefire in exchange.

That’s the ceasefire which, since February, Trump has been asking Putin to announce at a summit meeting between the two of them. That’s also the fourth ceasefire in the row which Trump has been counting as his personal achievements – between Pakistan and India on May 10; between Iran and Israel on June 23; and between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda on June 27.

Only the scheme has failed.

A Moscow source in a position to know explains: “The Russian calculus recognizes the tipping point [for US arms supplies to the Ukraine]. Until then the General Staff will grind away methodically, slowly. Then when the Western supplies run low, we will hit fast and hard. If you total the June attacks, the picture emerges clearly that Putin has chosen the Oreshnik option – without firing it yet — over compromising on Trump’s terms. The outskirts of Kiev are burning like never before.”

There are American exceptionalists who insist they thought of this before — in 1943, in fact, when Walter Lippmann spelled out what has come to be called (by Ivy League professors) the “Lippmann Gap”. This is no more nor less than the ancient maxim — don’t bite off more than you can chew. But in Lippmann’s verbulation: “Foreign policy consists in bringing into balance, with a comfortable surplus of power in reserve, the nation’s commitments and the nation’s power. I mean by a foreign commitment an obligation, outside the continental limits of the United States, which may in the last analysis have to be met by waging war. I mean by power the force which is necessary to prevent such a war or to win it if it cannot be prevented. In the term necessary power I include the military force which can be mobilized effectively within the domestic territory of the United States and also the reinforcements which can be obtained from dependable allies.”

From the Russian point of view, the first two of Trump’s ceasefires have been clumsily concealed rescues for Pakistan and Israel; the Congo-Rwanda terms remain undecided; and the “necessary power” to reverse the defeat of the US, its “dependable allies”, and its proxies in the Ukraine has already been defeated. It won’t be Putin, however, to announce publicly that Trump has no “comfortable power in reserve”.

That, however, was Putin’s private message to Trump in their telephone call on July 3. “Russia would strive to achieve its goals,” was the way Putin allowed his spokesman to disclose: “namely the elimination of the well-known root causes that led to the current state of affairs, the bitter confrontation that we are seeing now. Russia will not back down from these goals.”

This is the reason Trump later acknowledged: “I didn’t make any progress with him today at all.” It’s also the reason Trump beat a retreat from failure. “I’m very disappointed. Well, it’s not, I just think, I don’t think he’s [Putin] looking to stop. And that’s too bad. This, this fight, this isn’t me. This is Biden’s war.”

Here are the pieces of the intelligence assessment assembled in Moscow which led to the escalation of drone and missile attacks on Kiev since last Thursday night.

The first announcement came from the Pentagon on July 1. “The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low.” The sources were authorized to identify Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, “after a review of Pentagon munitions stockpiles”. “The Pentagon had been dividing munitions into categories of criticality since February, over concerns that the DOD was using too many air defense munitions in Yemen…Plans were in place to redirect key munitions, including artillery shells, tank shells, and air defense systems, back to the U.S. homeland or to Israel.”

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Source: https://www.politico.com/

Note the timing, according to Politico’s “ three people familiar with the issue…The initial decision to withhold some aid promised during the Biden administration came in early June, according to the people, but is only taking effect now as Ukraine is beating back some of the largest Russian barrages of missiles and drones at civilian targets in Kyiv and elsewhere. The people were granted anonymity to discuss current operations. The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.”

Colby has been the brains behind the strategy of sequencing Trump’s wars according to the bite-off-and-chew rule. But he has not been acting alone. He reports to Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg, a Jewish financier of Trump’s campaigns whose wealth has been accumulated in part from the US defence industry and from his one-time stake in Israel’s largest bank, Bank Leumi.

The Colby-Feinberg idea was not to admit there was a “Lippmann gap”, but instead to persuade Trump the Israel war should take priority over the Ukraine war; and that if that choice was made public, the Jewish lobby would prevail over the Ukraine lobby in supporting the president. Trump was also persuaded to acknowledge publicly there is a domestic shortfall of weapons, and in private get Putin to accept the ceasefire Trump had been promoting since their first telephone call on February 12.

Trump dutifully announced at the NATO summit on June 25: “we’re going to see if we can make some [arms] available, they’re very hard to get. They [Ukraine] do want to have the anti-missile missiles, as they call them the Patriots, and we’re going to see if we can make some available. You know, they’re very hard to get. We need them, too. We were supplying them to Israel and they’re very effective. 100 percent effective. Hard to believe how effective. And they do want that more than any other thing, as you probably know.”

Trump then tried with Putin on the telephone on July 3. He “once again raised the issue of ending the hostilities as soon as possible,” Putin’s spokesman Yury Ushakov confirmed Trump’s ceasefire pitch in the Kremlin read-out.

But Putin said no ceasefire now. “In turn, Vladimir Putin noted that we still continued the search for a political, negotiated solution to the conflict…the elimination of the well-known root causes that led to the current state of affairs…Russia will not back down from these goals.”

“I’m not happy about that,” Trump said five hours later. “No, I didn’t make any progress with him today at all.”

Another hour went by and Trump repeated: “Yeah, very disappointed with the conversation I had today with President Putin, ’cause I don’t think he’s there. I don’t think he’s there.”

In Moscow an official source noted: “He is not telling why Zelensky is not there, not signing on the terms.”

Trump followed on the morning of July 4 in a telephone call with Vladimir Zelensky to discuss new Patriot missile and other arms deliveries to the Ukraine.

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Source: https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/tra ... ly-4-2025/

After the call with Zelensky, Trump was uncharacteristically silent. Zelensky did all the talking instead. “We spoke about opportunities in air defence and agreed that we will work together to strengthen protection of our skies. We have also agreed to a meeting between our teams. We had a detailed conversation about defence industry capabilities and joint production. We are ready for direct projects with the United States and believe this is critically important for security, especially when it comes to drones and related technologies.”

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Source: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/55728

“We also touched on mutual procurement and investment,” Zelensky added — “we exchanged views on the diplomatic situation and joint work with the U.S. and other partners.”

This was a reference to proposals from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to run down his remaining stocks of Patriot missiles and their radar and launch batteries; send them to Kiev; and buy more from the US. The list of US arms shipments which have been halted reportedly include 155mm artillery rounds, Patriot air defence systems, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, Stinger, AIM-7 and Hellfire missiles.

As the Kremlin interpreted the call, there was no sign from Trump that he was asking or telling Zelensky to accept any of the Russian terms which have been tabled in Istanbul.

At the State Department, spokesman Tammy Bruce stumbled awkwardly over what to admit was the Feinberg-Colby plan which Trump had accepted, and what alternatives remained for the Ukraine. The decision-making had come from the Pentagon, not from State, Bruce claimed. She then read out from a prepared script quoting a White House press release and a statement from Colby. “We don’t make decisions about the shipping of weapons,” Bruce said. “The DoD statement made clear that they have robust options as we continue to work to assist Ukraine when it comes to the options they might have from the DoD, and I don’t doubt that. So we should, I think, be cautious about judging the nature of what has just occurred, considering our commitment that remains for the country of Ukraine.”

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Left: State Department statement by Tammy Bruce. Right, Defense Department spokesman Sean Parnell reads out prepared script. For more on the gap between DoD and State, read this.

“A capability review is being conducted,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell read out, “to ensure US military aid aligns with our defense priorities, and we will not be providing any updates to specific quantities or types of munitions being provided to Ukraine, or the timelines associated with these transfers,” he said. “We see this as a common sense pragmatic step …to evaluate what munitions are sent and where. But we want to be very clear about this last point. Let it be known that our military has everything that it needs to conduct any mission anywhere, anytime, all around the world.”

In fact, as Colby said, the “capability review” had already concluded and Feinberg had agreed with the White House in early June — before Israel launched its war on Iran on June 13. As the US and Israel fired far more ordnance at Iran than Colby and Feinberg had anticipated, they became nervous at the backlash this caused at State and National Security Council. “The Department of Defense continues,” Colby told the New York Post, “to provide the President with robust options to continue military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end. At the same time, the Department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach to achieving this objective while also preserving US forces’ readiness for Administration defense priorities. Department of Defense leadership works as a cohesive and smoothly-running team under the leadership of Secretary of Defense Hegseth. This is yet another attempt to portray division that does not exist…America’s potential adversaries know all of this and are acting accordingly.”

Putin has acknowledged publicly there has been no movement from Washington or Kiev towards the Russian end-of-war terms. “These [Russian, US-Ukrainian] are two absolutely opposing memorandums,” he told the press, “but that is precisely why talks are set up and held – to find ways to bring positions closer. The fact that they were diametrically opposed does not seem surprising to me, either. I would not like to go into details, as I believe it would be counterproductive – even harmful – to get ahead of the talks.”

From Ushakov’s read-out of the July 3 call, it is clear Trump and Putin were unable to agree on a date for a new round of Istanbul negotiations. “The two presidents will naturally continue communicating and will have another conversation soon,” Ushakov reported. This is Russian for don’t call me, I’ll call you.

The General Staff then launched its largest air attack on Kiev since the war began, continuing the operation from the night of July 4 through the night of July 5. The majority of the weapons used were Russian and Iranian drones. According to Boris Rozhin, the leading military blogger in Moscow, “it is not entirely clear how the supply of missiles for the Patriot air defence system — if the United States will allow them — will save Ukraine from the growing flow of Gerans [and Gerberas ]. Shooting down the Geran heroes with Patriot missiles is absolutely pointless from an economic point of view.” July 4 Min 22:54.

Oleg Tsarev, a leading Ukrainian opposition politician based in Crimea, commented “several thoughts about the termination of the United States’ supply of some weapons to Kiev. This is certainly great news, but we should not forget that, firstly, we are not talking about stopping the supply of all weapons, but only about some of the names, and secondly, the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is the entire European Union, all Western countries, on which we do not strike. And thirdly, Ukraine is largely holding the front with drones and electronic warfare, and with the supply of these components they have no problems and none is foreseen.”

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Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 025-07-03/

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Map of Russian air attacks on the evening of July 4 -- source: https://t.me/boris_rozhin/171383
For the July 5 map, click: https://t.me/boris_rozhin/171467

The Moscow consensus now is to escalate westwards from the front on the ground, and by air attack on Kiev, and wait for Trump. “Either Trump agrees on fresh direct shipments, or he will pretend that indirect shipments are a compromise, or he will abandon Zelensky to his fate. So we talk peace and keep moving on all fronts, keep hitting everything military. It is fast reaching the point where even if there was no Israel sector, Iran sector, Yemen sector, the US cannot save Ukraine. The US and Europe certainly can’t defeat Russia. That’s the calculus.”

https://johnhelmer.net/tipping-point/#more-92020

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War Now Indefinitely Sustainable, as New Reports Prove Russian Armor Production Has Finally Reached Equilibrium
Simplicius
Jul 07, 2025

Last week we learned that the US’ 155mm artillery munitions production had suffered a major setback, falling from the peak 50,000 per month milestone, back down to a measly 40,000.

Now we turn to new revelations surrounding Russia’s own production of key systems, which have been tracked and updated by various Western agencies and OSINT experts.

The most significant of which has been an update on Russian tank production, specifically the T-90M. This is the most important Russian production line for the simple fact that it remains the only purely new tank being built from scratch in Russia, rather than tanks assembled from old stockpile hulls. This means that to some extent, the future of Russian armor depends on the T-90M line because if the war were to continue for years to come, it is obviously conceivable that old hulls will at some point run out, and the T-90M is the only model that can continue to be produced indefinitely.

First, on the team that did the research: it was done by Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), which is a kind of open-source think tank formed by Russian dissident Ruslan Leviev back in the early part of the Donbass conflict and Syrian war of the 2014-2015 era. He is wanted by Russian authorities, and as such his team’s findings are obviously done through a pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian slant—which is what makes them all-the-more interesting, given the conclusions made.

Their main paper is found here.

I’ll post the full bullet points from the ‘key findings’ section, and comment on each in turn:

By the time serial production of the T-90M tank began in 2020, the Russian state-owned manufacturer Uralvagonzavod had produced between 120 and 150 original T-90 tanks for the Russian army (ed: this means total production), along with roughly 280 T-90A models.

In the post-Soviet period, Uralvagonzavod managed to preserve its production capacities, including its ability to manufacture armored hulls. At the peak of demand in the 2010s, the plant could produce up to 140 tanks annually, while also manufacturing tank assembly kits.

By the outset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Uralvagonzavod had launched serial production and modernization of the T-90M Proryv [Breakthrough] tank, delivering between 66 and 85 of these tanks to active units. An additional ten were sent to the Kazan Higher Tank Command School. As of late 2021, the company aimed to reach an annual output of around 60 tanks.

Thus, by February 2022, the Russian army possessed between 65 and 85 T-90M tanks, along with 370 to 380 older T-90 variants.


Here we see that Russia was producing a reported ~60 or so T-90Ms per year by the start of the SMO. Remember, this refers specifically to the most advanced T-90M Proryv line, as opposed to regular T-90 or T-90A mentioned earlier. They state that at the start of the SMO, Russia possessed a total of 65-85 T-90Ms and 370-380 other older T-90 varieties.

Following the start of mobilization, all stored T-90A tanks were withdrawn from reserves and assigned to several units within the Russian Armed Forces. The original T-90s remained in reserve but were subsequently sent back to Uralvagonzavod for modernization.

According to our estimates, Uralvagonzavod produced 60-70 T-90M tanks in 2022. In 2023, amid efforts to mobilize the defense industry, output may have increased to 140-180 tanks, and by 2024, it may have surpassed 200 units annually, possibly approaching a production rate of 250-300 tanks per year.


Here we see that while in 2022 Russia was producing 60-70 T-90Ms, by 2023 it had increased to 140-180, and by 2024 it may have reached 200+ per year, and possibly even as high as 300.

The availability of new armored hulls does not appear to be a limiting factor and has not impeded production. All T-90M tanks currently being produced are newly built.

This is the most significant of the statements: they confirm that all T-90Ms currently being built are completely new, and not mere refurbs of older hulls, like T-90As converted to T-90M standard, etc. Recall as I said, this is an anti-Russian analysis team, which means they have no incentive to make things up for Russia’s benefit—and in fact the opposite.

Since the war began, at least 540-630 T-90M tanks have been manufactured—this includes both newly built and modernized vehicles. Given that over 130 of them have been destroyed, an estimated 410-500 remain in service—approximately 15 percent of the tanks deployed on the front.

Uralvagonzavod is actively working to expand its production capacity. The company has issued tenders for the procurement and installation of welding stations and machining stands for tank hulls. This equipment is expected to operate 24/7. These steps suggest a likely further increase in production speed.


Here we learn that despite potentially reaching 300+ per year production numbers, UVZ is still expanding its production capacity.

And here is the biggest kicker which dovetails with my own analysis which I’ve been writing about for a long time:

With armored vehicle use—and therefore losses—expected to decline in 2025, current production levels will likely suffice to maintain the RuAF’s tank numbers for at least several more years of combat operations.

Q.E.D.

Read that again. Russian tank losses have shrunk to such a level, that Russia’s current and expanding production capacities for tanks at this point essentially reach an equilibrium—or will soon. That means predictions about Russia only being able to prosecute its war for another “year or two” are now defunct: Russia is reaching the ability to fully maintain its losses indefinitely.

This comes amidst recent reports from other OSINT analysts which highlight Russia’s dwindling armor losses.

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Read carefully:

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In short, Russian tank losses for 2025 are on track to hit an annualized 492, based on Oryx and other sources. However, they have been slowing down each month, so it’s possible even this track is overly optimistic toward Ukraine. It could end up being 400 or less.

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Total Russian tank losses for year 2025 as of June, per Oryx data.

Put the two trends together and you get the following: Russian tank losses are trending down toward 400 a year and less, while Russian tank production of brand new, non-refurbed, tanks is already at 300+ according to the CIT report, and is trending positively upward with the acquisition of major new equipment lines as proven by procurement tenders analyzed by the team.

That means—if it hasn’t already done so—Russian tank losses and production will soon converge to be a total net zero, which would balance out the tank production as infinitely sustainable from that point forward.

The CIT report notes that these aren’t even the most optimistic—for Russia—possible outcomes, given that the Russian T-80 Omsktransmash line has been in talks to be restarted since 2023 or so. If the line comes online sometime in the future to produce completely new T-80s—rather than refurbs and upgrades as it does now—then Russia will be gaining a large net positive in new tanks over losses.

Recall that the net zero equilibrium that may have already been reached only pertains to brand new tanks, i.e. T-90Ms. But in terms of total tank production, which includes all the refurbished and upgraded T-72B3Ms, T-80BVMs, T-62Ms still being sent to the front, Russia has now vastly surpassed losses. The total tank production when you count these amounts to 1200-1500 per year, and we just learned that Russia’s tank losses are now trending toward ~400+ per year total. That means Russia has already completely staunched the bleeding of its heavy armor—it’s simply that the above mentioned refurb hulls will eventually run out, since there is only a finite number of them. This is why the T-90M equilibrium with losses is more important, as those can be produced indefinitely.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/war ... ustainable

******

The scheme is simple and vile

Military organization: lackluster results of the corps reform. Azov's conflict with army command. Desertion and corruption. No more training bases. Reassessment of the failed 2023 counteroffensive.

Events in Ukraine
Jul 07, 2025

The guys in the reserve battalions have been rotting in limbo for over half a year now — waiting to be “transferred” into new brigades.

The scheme is simple and vile: pay “a couple thousand” — and you get permission to slip away home “for the weekend.”

Quietly, without any publicity, in the finest of traditions.

People are fighting, while others are cashing in on bureaucratic swamp muck. It’s sickening.

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Today’s topic is the human material making up the Ukrainian army. Namely, its organization. Tomorrow I’ll put out an article on mobilization and the type of personnel it has been supplying.

Much of today’s article will analyze Ukraine’s much-hyped corps reform, announced at the start of this year. Beginning with an explanation of the aims of the reform, we will move onto some analysis by military bloggers from the past month on its mixed results. Finally, we’ll take a look at the 17 corps that currently exist, and pry open some details about the commanders in charge. Not all of them live up the reputation of ‘young effective commanders’. This whole topic is also relevant to understanding the neo-nazi Azov network’s ascent in army ranks.

Last week, we looked at how incompetent new units are buckling at the frontline. But another issue covered today is that of personnel trying to enter different units to escape abusive commanders. According to some recent reports by military bloggers, attempts to encourage this have been stymied by systemic corruption.

Meanwhile, training centers have other problems. On the one hand, constant Russian military strikes against them have meant that commanders are now complaining that their men aren’t getting any training at all. On the other hand, some complain that training officers are only appointed through bribery and have no real frontline experience.

Finally, history and military intrigues. Head of the army Syrsky’s repression of the popular commander of the 46th, a unit fighting in the crucial area where the Donetsk Oblast borders with the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Next, a pro-Syrsky reassessment of supposed missed chances in the 2023 counter-offensive, and Azov leader Biletsky’s conflict with Syrsky during said counter-offensive, with the ‘white fuhrer’ supposedly saved by president Zelensky.

By the way, a note to my readers. This week, I’ve decided to conduct a little experiment and take leave off my day job to focus on my substack. As a result, I’ll be putting out an article every day, as well as finally release some content I’ve been promising for some time. If you’d like this experiment to continue, consider becoming a paid subscriber.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... e-and-vile

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Brief Frontline Report – July 7th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 07, 2025

Tetkino-Novy Put

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Units of the North Group continued advancing into the depth of enemy defenses and liberated the settlement of Bessalovka in Sumy Oblast."

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The village of Bessalovka (approximately 90 residents) is located near the border with the Russian Federation. It has been one of the focal points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's ongoing attempts to breach the Russian state border and invade Russian territory.

For over two months, the AFU has carried out continuous attacks along the Russian border in the Tetkino-Novy Put sector. Just as continuously - and successfully - Russian border defense units have been eliminating these militants and their equipment. However, the theatrical leadership of Ukraine needs a narrative, even a false one, to portray these staged war scenes as AFU successes.

Ignoring the deceitful propaganda of Ukrainian media, the Russian Armed Forces have systematically ground down AFU manpower and weaponry, contributing to the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.

The time has come. As part of the task to establish a buffer zone in Sumy Oblast (still nominally Ukrainian territory), Russian forces have pushed forward units out of Bessalovka, situated along the Belopolye-Solyanyky-Iskrishkovshchina-Bessalovka radial route (Belopolye is south of where the map cuts off). This creates an opportunity to expand the bridgehead deeper along this axis toward Iskrishkovshchina (Yskryskovshchyna on the map).

This sector represents the AFU's left flank along the Volfa River watershed (where Bessalovka is located) and the Pavlovka River, which flows through the village of Pavlovka - the AFU's right flank in the Tetkino-Novy Put direction.

Hypothetical development:
After advancing along the lowland of the Volfa River toward Iskrishkovshchina and securing their right flank, Russian forces may begin pushing along the watershed ridge toward Volfino (Volfyno) via the railway. If the enemy attempts to counter this maneuver and establishes defenses here, a flanking thrust from Novy Put toward Pavlovka could follow.

In the Tetkino-Ryzhevka sector, no major activity is expected (due to swamps and lowlands) as there is no critical infrastructure. However, we - and possibly the AFU - could be mistaken, and this might be exactly where the next strike lands. After all, they hit where you least expect. And that depends entirely on the quality of intelligence analyzed by our General Staff's planning bodies.

Dnepropetrovsk

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "As a result of decisive actions by units of the Center Group, the settlement of Dachnoe in Dnepropetrovsk Oblast has been liberated."

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 30.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 30th, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 1st, 2025.

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Location of Dachnoe if you are having difficulty. The dashed fuscia line marks the border between the Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk Oblasts.
Reports of this village's liberation have been circulating in media and military blogs for a week.

As for us, we only mark settlements as liberated on our maps once officially confirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry. We do not require video evidence or a consensus of commentators to validate statements made by state authorities. Should the Ministry update its information, we will adjust accordingly.

However, we can analyze and cautiously speculate - within the limits of our expertise - without claiming absolute accuracy or objectivity. By mapping the situation, we provide a visual representation of reliable frontline data, not to fuel sensationalism but to foster a clearer understanding (for both you and us) of developments on the ground.

The village of Dachnoe (around 100 residents) is located on the north bank of the Volchya River in Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. Securing Dachnoe expands the bridgehead along the Volchya River (following its flow) and sets conditions for an advance toward Filiya, which blocks the exit from the Alekseevska Pocket for remaining AFU units trapped there.

Additionally, this establishes a strongpoint for developing an offensive on the left flank of the Novopavlovka sector toward the Zeleny Gai-Muravka line. The right flank near Novonikolaevka is also building momentum and ours will strike once favorable conditions are met.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... y-7th-2025
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Jul 09, 2025 11:47 am

Trump, Europe and the maintenance of war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 09/07/2025

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“We're going to send more weapons to Ukraine. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves,” Donald Trump said Monday night during a reception for Benjamin Netanyahu. It was the change Ukraine was hoping for to restore hope that the supply of US weapons for war would not only not decrease, but actually increase. However, Trump's words, like his promises two weeks ago, which were followed by the suspension of deliveries of certain equipment, are ambiguous and do not clarify whether this is a resumption of all temporarily halted supplies, targeted deliveries of the equipment the US president believes kyiv needs, or even the empty words of a person known for his quick changes of heart.

“Following President Trump’s instructions, the Department of Defense is sending additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to secure a lasting peace and ensure the killing stops. Our framework for the President of the United States to assess military shipments around the world remains in place and is integral to our America First defense priorities,” states the brief statement released by Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell. Between the lines, one can infer that the policy of suspending the delivery of certain weapons to Ukraine to prioritize security and replenish its own arsenals and those of its allies—specifically Israel, which has recently extensively used its air defenses and those of the United States to try to shoot down Iranian missiles—came, as initially speculated, from the Pentagon and not the White House. In other words, it was never about the much-feared European fear that Donald Trump, due to his alleged pro-Russian sympathies or favoritism toward Vladimir Putin, would abandon Ukraine, but rather a simple policy of stocktaking.

Although there is no specification regarding the quantity of weapons the United States will send to Ukraine or whether it is simply a matter of recovering suspended deliveries, as seems evident given the lack of plans to seek further funding from Congress, the news has immediately quelled Ukrainian nervousness and renewed praise for Trump for the correct decision, which will also be enormously beneficial to Washington. This simplistic hyperbole underlies the current Ukrainian discourse, which focuses on celebrating what has been achieved, continuing to demand more, and justifying it in light of Ukraine's enormous importance on the world stage as a guarantor of peace and Western civilization, of which it once again proclaims itself the external border .

“President Trump’s decision to continue and expand military aid to Ukraine, in the context of productive personal communication with President Zelensky, was expected, as it aligns with the core strategic interests of the United States. It represents a direct and large-scale injection of funds into the heart of American industry. Factories in dozens of states are now overflowing with orders, jobs are being created, and national arsenals are being modernized,” wrote Mikhail Podolyak, summing up in a nutshell the Ukrainian arrogance of someone who knows that through pressure they will continue to achieve their goals and the desperation of someone who has no qualms about presenting the misfortune of their people as an opportunity for economic profit for their main supplier. The war is not only the testing ground that Cold War armchair soldiers would have dreamed of, a high-intensity confrontation scenario in which to test the performance of American weapons against Russian ones, but a way to advance the America First economy based on production and sales contracts from the enormous US military-industrial complex, with which Ukraine seeks to ally itself to become the greater Israel that Zelensky aspires to resemble.

“The most significant benefit also lies in reducing the likelihood of Russian aggression against other European nations. By detaining Putin in Ukraine today, the White House avoids the enormous future costs of defending NATO allies tomorrow,” Podolyak added, not to abandon the security argument and paving the way for continued exploitation of both an exaggerated danger in the case of Europe and a completely imaginary one in the case of the United States, as well as Donald Trump's inflated ego, which thrives on feeling strong. “This show of force is being observed around the world. Europe is breathing a sigh of relief, seeing an opportunity to reform its own security framework. China is watching closely, North Korea is clearly playing with matches, and Iran is learning a harsh lesson. Every Ukrainian victory achieved with American weapons increases US leverage at the negotiating table, opening the door to favorable trade and security agreements. The logic is absolutely clear,” he concluded, naming three habitual opponents with whom Ukraine is trying to create an axis whose nonexistence is evident from the actions of Russia and China during the twelve days in which Washington and Tel Aviv bombed Iran, supposedly a member of that anti-Western authoritarian bloc that fights globally against the “rules-based international order.”

Despite Ukraine's optimism, as planned as the concern in the days following the announcement of the suspension of arms deliveries, the situation has not changed much and is moving toward where it was always clear the issue would lead: the demand for increased supplies to European countries. Generally well-informed in the White House, Axios wrote yesterday, referring to the latest conversation between the US president and his Ukrainian counterpart, that "according to two sources briefed on the phone call, Trump told Zelensky that he wants to help Ukraine's air defenses, but stressed that the US had to pause the latest arms shipment to review the status of its own arsenals." In this regard, The Guardian added that "the US only has about 25% of the Patriot interceptor missiles it needs for all of the Pentagon's military plans after depleting its stockpiles in the Middle East in recent months."

According to Axios ' two sources , "Trump promised to immediately send 10 Patriot interceptors—fewer than had been planned for the paused shipment—and to help find other means of supply." This is where European allies reappear, one of whom, Friedrich Merz, had already spoken with Donald Trump to demand the resumption of deliveries of the air defense missiles that had been intercepted and redirected as they traveled to Poland for transfer to Ukraine. According to Axios ' three sources , Trump "suggested that Germany sell one of its Patriot batteries to Ukraine. They said the United States and European allies would split the cost of the purchase. Trump and Merz did not reach an agreement, but officials say the discussion is ongoing. German officials maintain that Germany has given a very high percentage of its Patriots to Ukraine—even more than the United States in relative terms." The US portion of this purchase would be covered by funding already committed by Joe Biden and would not entail a reduction in US arsenals, while Trump is demanding additional acquisitions from European allies at the expense of reserves that, in the case of air defense, are much smaller. This demand for increased military flows comes alongside European funding commitments for Ukraine, which also continue to rise.

In the initial division of labor in 2022, when the European Union decided that the war in Ukraine was existential and its alliance with the United States translated into the subservience to Washington observed daily today, European countries were primarily responsible for sustaining the state, while the White House would handle the bulk of military supplies. Over time, European contributions have consolidated in terms of contributions to keep the state and its institutions afloat, while their influence on the flow of arms has also increased. Long before Donald Trump came to power—with whom demands for greater economic involvement from the European Union have become more prominent, as have the falsehoods about the amounts contributed so far by Washington and European countries—the EU already surpassed the United States as Ukraine's main sponsor. These differences are increasingly stark considering that the Trump administration has not requested more funding for the war, while European countries continue to provide new funds.

“There is growing concern about next year, and many stakeholders who were counting on a ceasefire agreement this year are having to recalculate their spending and are realizing that there is a deficit, no matter how they try to cut it,” the Financial Times wrote yesterday, citing a senior EU official . Ukraine not only needs a ceasefire to halt the Russian advance and regroup, but also to avoid the “fiscal strains” that come with active conflict and its dependence on foreign aid. Hence, as the financial outlet explains, Brussels is “urgently exploring ways to plug a shortfall of up to $19 billion in Ukraine’s budget for next year.” Ultimately, it all comes down to European countries bearing the costs of maintaining the state and supplying the war effort.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/09/32569/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

The situation in the Ukrainian Armed Forces: Syrsky is already being called a drug addict, new brigades near Tyotkino, overcrowded hospitals in Sumy and the tyranny of the TCC

Syrsky said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces control part of the Kursk and Belgorod regions. We see no particular point in refuting the delirious statements of the Ukrainian commander-in-chief: military operations have long been underway in the Kharkov and Sumy regions.

We will only cite the statement of the Kiev journalist A. Gura, who practically directly writes that the commander-in-chief has long been on hard drugs - this is how Syrsky and his statements are perceived inside Ukraine.

An analysis of obituaries showed that all units of the "Aidar" were destroyed in Bessalovka in the 20th of June, after which the 158th separate mechanized brigade was responsible for the defense of the village.

Social networks revealed that wounded Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers are sent to the civilian "Central Clinical Hospital" (13 Sumy Artillery Brigade Street).

Local residents report that not only the wards but also the corridors are overcrowded in the hospital. Residents of Sumy have not been admitted to the healthcare facility for a long time, refusing to hospitalize them under any pretext.

Relatives of soldiers forcibly mobilized in the 425th separate regiment are trying to unite to fight the tyranny of the assault regiment command.

It is characteristic that widows, without much embarrassment, leave their mobile phones and do not hide their personal information, realizing that the SBU will not put everyone in jail.

In the Tyotkinsky direction To replenish the losses of the assault regiments, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is transferring units of the 144th separate mechanized brigade

to this section of the front , which participated in the "Krasnoyarsk provocation" and were previously withdrawn to the Chernihiv region. Missile strikes were carried out on the locations and positions of the 144th separate mechanized brigade in the Chernihiv region , which significantly slowed down the rate of restoration of the brigade's combat capability. General Ukrainian artists and musicians who pompously mobilized into combat brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine end up serving in the presidential orchestra and the musical group of the Border Service of Ukraine. In particular, musician V. Kozlovsky and the leader of the group "Fiolet" S. Martynyuk spoke about this without embarrassment. The photographs attached by media "AFU members" clearly show that they serve formally. It is curious that now Ukrainian media are writing about this without much embarrassment. The infamous Ukrainian deputy M. Bezugla reports that the founder of the Special Forces of Ukraine S. Krivonos could flee abroad. In the current situation, we note that S. Krivonos is an ardent opponent of Zelensky and Syrsky, accusing them of destroying Ukrainian special forces in "meat assaults".

The Verkhovna Rada's temporary investigative commission reported that there have been no sentences for beatings of citizens by TCC employees, as well as for illegally detaining men and keeping them in TCC buildings.

The decision of TCC employees to "go online" in reality legalizes their work as full-fledged gangs, when forcibly mobilized Ukrainian men will be taken to places unknown to anyone, held in abandoned buildings, and most importantly, all this will comply with modern Ukrainian legislation.

@warriorofnorth

***

ColonelCassad
Russian Defense Ministry summary of the progress of the Northern Military District as of July 8, 2025. North Group: The tactical situation in Sumy Oblast has been improved. A tank, mechanized, 2 airborne assault brigades, an airborne assault and assault regiment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were damaged in the areas of Novoivanivka, Novaya Sich, Kondrativka, Yunakovka, Sadky and Varachino. In the Kharkiv direction, a motorized infantry brigade and territorial defense were damaged near Malyi Burluk, Gatishche and Vovchansk. Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: up to 185 soldiers, 7 vehicles, 5 guns, an ammunition depot, an electronic warfare station. West Group: Positions on the front line have been improved. Three mechanized brigades, an assault brigade and the territorial defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were damaged near Petro-Ivanovka, Kupyansk (Kharkiv region), Sredny, Zelenaya Dolina and Torskoye (DPR). Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: over 205 soldiers, an HMMWV armored vehicle (USA), 28 vehicles, a Krab self-propelled gun (Poland), 3 electronic warfare stations, 5 ammunition depots were destroyed. South Group: Advantageous positions in the DPR were occupied. Three mechanized brigades, a motorized infantry, a mountain assault brigades, the territorial defense and the National Guard of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were damaged near Zvanovka, Katerinovka, Serebryanka, Seversk, Chasovy Yar, Belaya Gora, Konstantinovka, Shcherbinovka, Aleksandro-Shultino. Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: over 190 soldiers, an HMMWV armored vehicle (USA), 5 pickups, 3 guns, 3 warehouses, an EW station. Group "Center": The tactical situation in the DPR has been improved. 5 mechanized, airborne assault brigades, 2 assault regiments, marines and territorial defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were damaged near Dimitrov, Krasnoarmeysk, Udachny, Novosergeevka, Suvorovo, Muravka, Rodinskoye, Grishino. Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: over 430 soldiers, 9 vehicles, 2 guns. Group "East": Advancing deep into the defense of the DPR. 2 mechanized brigades and 3 territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were damaged near Voskresenka and Karl Marx. Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: up to 215 soldiers, 1 tank, 3 armored vehicles, 15 vehicles, 2 guns. Dnepr Group: 2 mechanized, mountain assault brigades, 2 coastal defense brigades and 2 territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were hit near Orekhov, Novoandriyevka, Kamenskoye, Novodanilovka (Zaporizhia region), Sadovoye, Antonovka (Kherson region). Up to 80 soldiers, 8 vehicles, 3 guns, 8 electronic warfare stations and 6 warehouses were destroyed. Russian Aerospace Forces strikes: Gas and energy infrastructure facilities providing the military-industrial complex were hit, as well as deployment points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and foreign mercenaries in 133 districts.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

PATRICK LAWRENCE: Trump Dead-Ends Putin
July 7, 2025

For a good long time what’s been happening in Ukraine is nothing more than postwar gore. If you have lost a war but cannot admit it, you are playing the old game of pretend.

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President Donald Trump at a Salute to America celebration at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines on July 3. (White House /Daniel Torok)

By Patrick Lawrence
Special to Consortium News

Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have spoken by telephone numerous times since the former reassumed office seven months ago. Not much appears to have been accomplished by way of these exchanges, some of which have been lengthy, according to the accounts Washington and Moscow have provided afterward.

No progress toward a durable settlement to end the war in Ukraine. Talk and desultory diplomatic contacts with a view to repairing the profligate damage successive American administrations have done to U.S.–Russian relations, but no substantive advances. O.K., it is what it is, as we say. But there was something singularly conclusive about the telephone conversation the U.S. and Russian leaders had last Thursday.

I detect that a dead end has been reached.

Trump was trying once again to get Putin to agree to an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire” in Ukraine — “the quick end to the military action,” as Yuri Ushakov, the Kremlin’s senior foreign policy adviser, put it. Putin was trying once again to explain that the time has come to structure an enduring settlement by addressing — the Kremlin’s favored phrase these days — the “root causes” of the conflict.

Maybe it is the barrage of drones and missiles with which the Russians bombarded Kiev and other Ukrainian cities within a few hours of the Trump–Putin exchange that prompts me to think the two leaders or their diplomats are unlikely ever to get anywhere on the telephone or at the mahogany table.

The Ukrainians, for what their word is worth, counted 539 drones and 11 missiles, including a hard-to-intercept, high-velocity (Mach 10 hypersonic) projectile called the Kinzhal.

This was the largest aerial attack so far in the war, by the Ukrainians’ reckoning, and it left Kiev smoldering last Friday morning. It is hard to avoid concluding the Kremlin had a point to make after the failure of the phone call.

Trump Has Nothing to Propose

Or maybe it is Trump’s remarks after the call that makes me think a diplomatic settlement seems simply beyond reach — this at least until the Ukrainian military is decisively smashed, and very possibly not even then.

“I was very unhappy with my call with President Putin,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One afterward. “I didn’t make any progress with him at all. He wants to go all the way, just keep killing people, it’s no good.”

You cannot be surprised at this current state of affairs. Trump made no progress with the Russian leader because he has nothing to propose that would make progress possible. Social media messages demanding a ceasefire, replete with capital letters and exclamation points, do not count and do not work as statecraft; they betoken nothing so much as Trump’s — read, the West’s — un-seriousness.

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Putin gives statement after a phone call with Trump on May 19. (Mikhail Tereshenko /TASS)

The fundamental problem here is that Kiev and its sponsors are unable to accept defeat. I concluded more than a year ago that Ukraine and its Western powers had lost the war — “effectively lost,” I thought for a time, but then I dropped “effectively.”

For a good long time now what we’ve watched is nothing more than postwar gore. If you have lost a war but cannot admit you have lost because the West must never lose anything, you are down to the old game of pretend. And so long as the U.S. and its European clients insist that they deserve any consequential say in the terms of negotiation — as if they can assert the authority of a victor — it amounts to the pointlessness of pretending.

It is as if the Germans, if you do not mind the comparison, insisted they set the terms of surrender in May 1945, or had a say in the settlement concluded at Versailles in 1919.

When a settlement is finally reached it will not be termed a surrender — you can count on this — but this is what it will come to. And Russia, to turn this question another way, will have a responsibility to avoid turning a finally achieved peace into another Versailles disaster — where the victors planted the seeds for a renewal of conflict — by asking too much.

I am confident Moscow will hold to its currently expressed demands, which I consider eminently just and not at all excessive: A new security architecture in Europe; no NATO membership for a neutral Ukraine that must be demilitarized and de-Nazified; and recognition of the four oblasts that voted to join Russia.

Ressentiment

But I am not confident Ukraine and the neo–Nazis who control the military and the civilian administration — yes, both — will ever accept any kind of coexistence with the Russian Federation. The hatred is too visceral, too irrational, too atavistic, too pathological. This is why de–Nazification was and remains a Russian objective.

The neo–Nazi beast, never far below the surface in post–1945 Ukraine, was sprung into the open air with the U.S.–cultivated coup in 2014. Washington and its clients in Kiev needed the neo–Nazis, especially but not only the armed militias, because they could be relied upon to fight the Russians with the sort of visceral animus the occasion required.

I do not know what a de–Nazification operation would look like, given the phenomenon’s above-noted characteristics, but something will have to be done to rid the Ukrainian consciousness of this deformity.

What we will see in Ukraine otherwise will prove an horrific case of ressentiment — enduring and poisonous. Ressentiment is a term the Germans, Friedrich Nietzsche among them, borrowed from the French in the 19th century because they had no term for the phenomenon.

It denotes the hostility and anger within a group arising from a shared sense of inferiority in the face of another — this other becoming a kind of scapegoat for a society’s frustrations and complexes.

Max Scheler, the 19th and early 20th century phenomenologist, explored all this in Ressentiment, a brief but pithy book he published in 1912 (in English, Marquette Univ. Press, 1994). As Scheler explained in interesting detail, a socially accepted set of values arises from this complex of feelings.

Ressentiment is a potentially dangerous sentiment when it animates a society that feels itself wounded over a sustained period of time. We need look no further than the extreme Russophobia evident today among some segments of the Ukrainian population for a case in point.

Against this historical and social backdrop, I do not see the Ukrainians as capable of reaching a settlement to end the war that has already torn apart the nation and its people. I do not see that they can achieve peace, either with others or among themselves, because they do not know peace and they are not capable of it.

A Rockface of History

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Country leaders at the 17th BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday. (Prime Minister’s Office /Wikimedia Commons/GODL-India)

But I see another reason peace in Ukraine will prove elusive, if not impossible, even as the Russians achieve it on the battlefield. (And I tend toward the latter probability.) This judgment arises when we put the Ukraine crisis in a larger, global context.

I think of Ukraine as resembling the rock face in a mine, or a front line in a global conflict: It is where the non–West is most urgently chiseling a new world order into being. It is a site of insistence, let us say. And it is where the West proposes to stop this world-historical turn of history’s wheel — a turn that simply cannot be stopped.

Think of Putin’s demands. Apart from de–Nazification — an objective that, to me, reflects considerable insight on Moscow’s part — there are the more encompassing “root causes.” I gather Putin used this phrase yet again in his call with Trump. [See: Rooting Out the Root Causes in Ukraine]

Putin, Sergei Lavrov, his foreign minister, and other senior Russian officials have been clear on this point at least since Moscow sent those two draft treaties Westward in December 2021 as the proposed basis of negotiations that would lead to an encompassing new security structure between Russia and the West.

This framework would relieve the decades of tension along Russia’s western flank and Europe’s east and would be of benefit to both sides. This was and remains Moscow’s intent. Settlements that address the concerns of all sides, as against one side’s at the expense of another, is the very essence of sound statecraft.

But any such settlement would stand as an expression of parity between West and non–West. As I have argued severally over the years, parity between these two spheres is a 21st century imperative. There will be no world order without it — only more of the disorder the Western powers call, altogether absurdly, “the rules-based order.”

But it is precisely even the thought of parity that the United States and its trans–Atlantic allies refuse to accept. It would bring to an end the half-millennium of dominance the West cannot release from its grasp even as it will eventually have to do so.

“It is no good,” Trump said after his latest telephone talk with Putin. No, and I do not see how it can be. Trump has nothing to offer the Russians that would amount to a serious address of what is genuinely at issue between America and Russia — between the West and non–West.

I leave it to readers to conclude where this leaves the Ukraine conflict and the larger question of Russo–American relations. It is, once again, what it is — or what it is at the moment.

In another column I will revisit this question of parity as it applies in West Asia.

https://consortiumnews.com/2025/07/07/p ... nds-putin/

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Ukraine - Drone Mass Production Lets Russia Gain Upper Hand

The Russian military has increased its operational tempo in Ukraine. There is (still) no big arrow movement but a rise in activity along the frontline.

On top of this come frequent drone and missile raids deep into the territory of Ukraine. The numbers are mind boggling:

Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA - 14:49 UTC · Jul 8, 2025
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed/Geran drones at Ukraine - 2,736 of them in June of this year, according to President Zelensky. ...


That's nearly 100 long range drones per day which target Kiev and other bigger cities. These are by the way no longer Iran made Shahed drones but a third generation development based on the original design. These drones are now bigger. They have new engines and fly faster and higher. Their load of explosives is now about 90 kilogram, double that of the original version. For each of these drones launched against Ukraine there is an additional decoy drone flying along. The decoys look similar but are not armed and much cheaper. The are to attract the air defenses while the real drones pass through.

Recent targets have been Ukrainian refineries, industrial objects and, during the last days, recruiting offices of the Ukrainian military.

These offices are in public buildings. Their addresses are naturally known as the whole mobilization process for additional soldiers is being run by them. The recruiters are hated by the population. Ukrainians are published the addresses of mobilization offices with requests to Russia to hit them.

At the frontline the area northwest of Donetsk city is the most crucial. The Russian forces are in the process of semi-encircling Pokrovsk and Konstantynivka (see maps below).

The New York Times writes (archived) of the later one:

The city is the southern gateway to a chain of cities that form Ukraine’s last major defensive belt in Donetsk. Should it fall, nearly all cities farther north would come within range of Russian drones. It would bring Moscow closer to its long-sought goal of seizing all of Donetsk.
Russian forces have carved out a 10-mile-deep pocket around the Ukrainian troops defending Kostiantynivka, partly surrounding them from the east, south and west. Practically every movement in that pocket is targeted by Russian drones around the clock, according to a half-dozen Ukrainian soldiers and officers fighting in the area. Troops are often stranded for weeks without rotation or the possibility of evacuating the wounded.


A new class of medium range drones play a big role in this:

Ukrainian soldiers say Russia’s expanded drone strike capacity gives it an edge it did not have during previous assaults.
“Before, they could hit targets within two or three kilometers,” or less than two miles, said the commander of the unit operating crewless vehicles in the 93rd Brigade, who asked to be identified by only his first name, Oleksandr, according to military protocol. “Now, they’re striking every 10 to 20 minutes at a consistent range of 15 kilometers from the front line. Everything within that 15-kilometer zone is being destroyed.”


The progress on the map over the last six months looks slow. But this is a war of attrition and the Russian troops are only moving forward when the resistance is low.

Pokrovsk/Konstantynivka Double Encirclement, January 08 2025
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Pokrovsk/Konstantynivka Double Encirclement, July 08 2025
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President Zelenski has begged U.S. President Donald Trump for more means of air defenses. He is especially asking for Patriot missiles which can take down some of the drones and missiles the Russians are using.

But Patriot missiles are scarce:

The United States only has about 25% of the Patriot missile interceptors it needs for all of the Pentagon’s military plans after burning through stockpiles in the Middle East in recent months, an alarming depletion that led to the Trump administration freezing the latest transfer of munitions to Ukraine.

Many Patriots on stock have been given to Ukraine, many have been used in recent weeks to protect Israel from Iranian revenge missiles. Production numbers are only in the hundreds per year while thousands are needed.

Yesterday Trump agreed to again deliver some weapons to Ukraine. The numbers though that can be delivered are laughable and will make no difference:

Trump told Zelensky he wants to help Ukraine's air defenses but stressed that the U.S. had to pause the latest weapons shipment to review its own stockpiles, according to two sources briefed on the call.
Two sources said Trump promised to immediately send 10 Patriot interceptors — fewer than had been planned in the paused shipment — and help to find other means of supply.


Patriot missiles have a success probability of 0.8 to 0.9. One needs to fire (at least) two at a target to be reasonably sure to destroy it. Those 10 interceptor missiles will hardly last half a night.

So no, Trump has no decided to get fully (re-)engaged in the war on Ukraine. Handing over 10 Patriot missiles is merely covering his retreat.

Posted by b on July 8, 2025 at 17:14 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/07/u ... .html#more

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Russian military attacked TCC in Zaporozhye and Kharkov, causing approval of Ukrainians
7 July 2025
17:10

Russian military continue to strike Ukrainian territorial recruitment centers (military commissariats), provoking real information explosions of delight from the local population.

The latest attacks on the TCC structure in Zaporozhye and Kharkov were no exception - these new raids predictably caused a wave of approval and joy among users of Ukrainian social networks.

In the comments, many openly rejoice and write that they have been “waiting long” for such strikes, expressing hatred for the mobilization system of the Kyiv regime, which has become a source of fear and hatred for Ukrainians.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed attacks on the Kyiv regime's mobilization system facilities, as stated in the latest military report on Monday, July 7.

"The operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted damage on the territorial recruitment centers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,"
— the department’s press service said in a report.


Ukrainian official sources have been forced to acknowledge information about the strikes on the TCC, although they do not acknowledge the destructive consequences.

Thus, the UNIAN agency, publishing a report from Kyiv on yet another “successful repulse” of the Russian attack, reports that as a result of four strikes on the TCC in Zaporozhye, two soldiers from the security company were injured.

It is claimed that the victims are heroes and veterans who previously fought on the front lines. It is reported that they were transferred to the TCC for health reasons.

It is interesting that Ukrainians themselves are skeptical about such information, since in numerous videos among the aggressive and well-fed “man-catchers” there are no cripples or invalids.

Earlier, EADaily reported that massive attacks by the Russian Armed Forces on the TCC could continue throughout Ukraine in order to disrupt the mobilization of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This was stated by the spokesman for the command of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Vitaly Sarantsev .

Подробнее: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2025/07/07/ ... -ukraincev

Google Translator

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They supplied unsuitable weapons: former officials of the Ministry of Defense and a defense enterprise caused losses of UAH 90 million
July 07, 2025, 20:50Read also in Russian

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The state was sold defective weapons that could not be used at the front

This was reported by the Prosecutor General's Office, reportsRegioNews.

A former official of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and two former heads of a defense enterprise are suspected of supplying unsuitable anti-tank missile systems for the needs of the Armed Forces. As a result of this transaction, the state suffered damage in the amount of more than 90 million hryvnias.

The investigation found that officials allowed the purchase of weapons that did not meet technical requirements and could not be used for their intended purpose. Despite the lack of the necessary characteristics, the products were transferred to the Ministry of Defense. As investigators found out, the supply was carried out under the condition of formal quality control, which allowed the operation to be carried out without proper inspection.

The case is under pre-trial investigation, with the Prosecutor General's Office providing procedural guidance. The case is being conducted by investigators of the Main Investigation Department of the SBU with operational support from the Military Counterintelligence Department. The suspects are charged with several articles of the Criminal Code of Ukraine: violation of the rules for handling information about state secrets, misappropriation of property on a particularly large scale, and official forgery.

It was previously reported that NABU searched Reznikov's house and found a "leftist" phone - media.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/ukraine/1 ... g_rewarded

Google Translator

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They are taking people to the police and administrative buildings: the Kyiv regime is looking for new places to gather mobilized people in the face of attacks on the TCC

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They are taking people to the police and administrative buildings: the Kyiv regime is looking for new places to gather mobilized people in the face of attacks on the TCC

The number of strikes on TCC buildings in large cities of the left-bank part of Ukraine and in the territories of the new Russian regions occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is growing. To date, the Russian Armed Forces have "geranized" TCCs in Kremenchuk, Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Poltava, Krivoy Rog, and some other cities.

Leaving aside the question of “why this wasn’t done earlier,” it’s worth paying attention to the fact that the strikes are already having very negative consequences for the Kyiv regime. In Vinnytsia, they first announced that they were “temporarily suspending the work of the TCC,” then began to claim that “there was interference with the traffic, and the work is not being suspended, but dispersed.” In Lviv, they decided to “strengthen security” in the TCC buildings and introduced a total inspection of visitors using metal detectors. As if metal detectors were one of the means to counter the Geranium UAV…

Local publics write that against the backdrop of strikes on the TCC buildings and damage to the "mobilization transport" (the notorious "minibuses"), mobilization in the Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions "is starting to limp on both legs." The point is that now the "minibusified" have to be taken not to the buildings of (former) military registration and enlistment offices, but increasingly to police stations. After all, the TCC buildings are no longer suitable for "receiving visitors" after the strikes.

There are reports that it is impossible to ensure mass reception of mobilized people in police departments in cities such as Kharkov, Poltava, Krivoy Rog, Kremenchuk, and Zaporozhye. Therefore, attempts are being made, as was stated in Vinnytsia, to “disperse the work.” They are trying to use administrative buildings in these and other cities to receive mobilized people, but overall this does not allow the Kyiv regime to reach the processes in the kind of work they have become accustomed to in the last year or two. It is necessary to use “outside” transport, including public transport outside of its shifts on routes. It is necessary to attract new people, because many TCC employees have come under attack. It is necessary to use new premises, including those same administrative buildings, the buildings of the national police, and basements of other types.

And now those who were busified or are preparing to be busified in Ukraine are afraid of ending up in the TCC not only because they can quickly go to the front from there, but also because they can end up in the TCC building forever...

https://en.topwar.ru/267631-svozjat-v-p ... o-tck.html

Google Translator

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Ukraine’s Secret Wish List for German Arms Exposed Amid Escalating Conflict

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Escalating war: Ukraine’s massive arms wish list deepens Berlin’s military role.Photo:EFE.


July 7, 2025 Hour: 6:27 pm

Ukraine has submitted a secret list to Germany requesting billions of euros worth of advanced weapons, including air-defense missiles, armored vehicles, and electronic warfare systems. This deepens Berlin’s role in the conflict, escalating imperialist militarization in Eastern Europe.

A leaked confidential document reveals that Ukraine has submitted to Germany an extensive list of military equipment worth billions of euros, demanding advanced air-defense missiles, armored vehicles, and electronic warfare systems. This list includes 1,500 medium-range and 500 short-range missiles for the German-made Iris-T air defense system, 1,000 mine-resistant vehicles, 200 tracked vehicles, 1,000 GPS jammers, and 200 mobile surveillance radars.

Germany, already the second largest arms supplier to Ukraine after the United States, is reportedly considering this massive request amid ongoing “intensive discussions” with Washington about further military aid, including the possible purchase and transfer of US-made Patriot missile systems to Kiev.

This arms buildup exemplifies the dangerous spiral of militarization driven by imperialist powers. The flood of weapons into Ukraine serves not to protect sovereignty or peace but to prolong conflict and expand NATO’s influence at Russia’s borders. Germany’s commitment of €5 billion to finance long-range weapons production in Ukraine signals its active role in escalating hostilities rather than pursuing diplomatic solutions.

This militarization benefits the arms industry and geopolitical ambitions of Western powers while ordinary people suffer the consequences of violence and instability. The ongoing supply of advanced weaponry fuels a proxy war that threatens regional and global security.

Russian officials have condemned Germany’s growing military involvement. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused Berlin of “competing with France to provoke further war,” while Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that Germany risks repeating catastrophic mistakes of the past century by sliding “down toward its own collapse.”


These warnings highlight the broader dangers of NATO’s eastward expansion and the reckless arming of conflict zones, which undermine prospects for peace and stability.

The exposure of Ukraine’s secret arms wish list to Germany reveals the deepening militarization of the conflict, driven by imperialist interests rather than genuine security concerns. Germany’s increasing complicity in arming Kiev escalates tensions and undermines prospects for peace. It is crucial for the international community, especially progressive forces, to resist this dangerous path and promote diplomacy over war.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/ukraines ... -conflict/

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Brief Frontline Report – July 8th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 08, 2025

The activity of the Russian Armed Forces on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), Kupyansk, and Sumy fronts has forced the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to reinforce their positions with units transferred from other, "quieter" sectors. One such sector, apparently deemed less critical, was the Zaporozhye front.

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ЛБС 01.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Активность=Activity.

Now, this front has "come to life." As on all other fronts of the Special Military Operation, the initiative here belongs to the command of the Russian Armed Forces. For several days in a row, there have been reports of the persistent advance of our assault troops in the village of Kamenskoe. News has also arrived about the completion of the clearing of this AFU stronghold.

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ЛБС 03.3.2025=Line of Combat Contact March 3rd, 2025. Активность=Activity.

This sector is the right flank of the AFU's Orekhov defensive line, which covers the city of Zaporozhye. If the offensive in this sector develops successfully—toward Kamenskoe-Stepnogorsk and Shcherbaki-Pavlovka-Novoyakovlevka—the Russian Armed Forces will encircle the city of Orekhov along the outer radius, cutting it off from bases deep in Ukrainian territory and disrupting the coordination of units defending the right flank of this AFU defensive line. After this, active operations on a smaller radius along the Nesteryanka-Kopani-Rabotino-Belogorye line may follow.

Pokrovsk

The intensity of hostilities on the right flank of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) front has NOT diminished.

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

After the liberation of the village of Razino and the "splitting" of the AFU defensive line, the focus of activity shifted southward, toward the settlement of Novoekonomicheskoe. Assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces have reached the outskirts of this village. The main obstacle (in this sector) to a breakthrough toward the settlement of Rodinskoye is being eliminated. Reaching this town will completely split the left flank of the AFU's defense.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... y-8th-2025
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Jul 10, 2025 11:48 am

No room for diplomacy
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 10/07/2025

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"Russia launches largest drone and missile attack against Ukraine since the start of the war," was the headline yesterday morning from the EFE news agency . Along the same lines, AFP insisted that "Russia launched its largest missile and drone attack against Ukraine in more than three years of war." Both media outlets based their statements on Kiev's statement, which, since the intensification of the air war between the two sides began—Ukraine continues to use its drones to endanger Russian civil aviation and subsequently boasts about airport delays—has chosen to always provide the total number of projectiles without differentiating between easily destroyed drones, decoys, and missiles. In this way, yesterday's bombardment could be presented as more severe than those in which, in 2022, Russia used more than a hundred missiles.

“The largest attack occurred in and around my hometown of Lutsk in western Ukraine, with about 10 missiles and 50 drones. No civilians were killed. Military airports in Zhitomir, Kharkiv, and probably near Lutsk were hit. In Lutsk, only attacks on a plant and a garage are publicly reported,” reported Ukrainian-Canadian academic Ivan Katchanovski. Across the front, as Reuters reported , “a Ukrainian attack on a beach in Kursk, Russia, left three dead and seven wounded, according to the regional governor.” Ignoring the effects of one’s own attacks and exaggerating Russian ones has become the daily practice. The spectacular nature of the description of the worst attack since the Russian invasion, which has been repeated several times in recent weeks due to the increasing use of drones due to the shortage of interceptors in the Ukrainian air defense system, is enough to guarantee big headlines despite the fact that, as Zelensky himself wrote, of the 741 projectiles, there were “728 drones of various types, including more than 300 shaheds, and 13 missiles: Kinzhals and Iskanders.”

Yulia Svyrydenko, deputy prime minister and possibly future prime minister if Andriy Yermak succeeds, as the US media claims, in removing Denis Shmyhal, expressed similar sentiments. “This attack is occurring as efforts to achieve a ceasefire are intensifying, and Russia continues to respond with escalation.” Clear in her speech and her objectives, and employing the Trumpian tactic of using capital letters to emphasize her demands, Svyrydenko added that “if there is to be peace, it will only be achieved through deterrence, not rewards: REAL sanctions, against the core of the Russian war machine. Against oil and those who still buy it. Every barrel finances more attacks, every barrel finances this global axis that seeks to destroy not only Ukraine, but also the democratic world. If peace is the goal, sanctions must dictate the narrative now.” The strategy of incentives and threats that Donald Trump has applied since coming to power does not please kyiv, although it believes it has benefited from it and hopes to do so again very soon.

Despite the clearly colonial nature and fundraising intent of the agreement, the Deputy Prime Minister insisted this week that Donald Trump's main incentive—and also threat—to Ukraine, the minerals deal, is not only "a key step toward the security of global strategic resources, but an absolutely historic step for Ukraine itself." The signing was ultimately the incentive offered to Ukraine as a substitute for security guarantees and a way to keep the White House involved in the conflict following Trump's threats to cut off arms and intelligence supplies beyond the trial period he used to force Zelensky to accept an opening to diplomatic channels.

In the case of Russia, without the ability to cut off arms supplies, Donald Trump has collided with his inability to force the Kremlin to accept the ceasefire agreement without the prospect of a definitive resolution, which Russia demands as a prerequisite for a truce. Accustomed to negotiations in a position to dictate the terms, the possibility of the return of American companies to Russia, American (not European) recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, or the lifting of American (not European) sanctions have not been sufficient incentive for Russia to accept a negotiation path too reminiscent of Minsk. However, alone and therefore autonomous in this war, Russia supplies its own weapons to its army, so there is no possibility of hindering that supply. With trade between the two countries practically reduced to nothing and options considered capable of destroying the Russian economy, such as disconnecting from the international Swift payment system, exhausted, Trump's only remaining options to punish Moscow are a massive increase in arms deliveries to Ukraine—which would clearly contradict the president's Nobel Peace Prize-winning promise of peace—or nuclear options , such as the secondary sanctions advocated by Lindsey Graham, which could further alienate China. Hence, Trump's priority, until now, has been to advocate for a diplomatic path, achieving nothing more than the symbolic gesture of the first meeting between Russia and Ukraine in three years and a series of exchanges of prisoners and the bodies of deceased soldiers.

But even that limited diplomacy has been too much for Ukraine, which, while continuing to talk about the need for peace, has continued to look for a way out. “I appreciate the meeting and the enriching conversation with the Pope. We appreciate all the support and all the prayers for peace in Ukraine,” wrote Volodymyr Zelensky in another of his messages of the day. “The proposal to hold leadership-level meetings in the Vatican remains open and is entirely possible, with the aim of halting Russian aggression and achieving a stable, lasting, and genuine peace. Currently, only Moscow continues to reject this proposal, just as it has rejected all other peace initiatives,” he added, without specifying that the only negotiation proposal Ukraine accepts is a meeting between presidents, a feasible option if one of the parties had won the war and could dictate the terms, but not in a case like the current one, in which the evident tendency toward an inconclusive outcome and the risk of eternal war make a process of dialogue necessary to address the underlying issues that have caused the conflict and seek solutions to its various aspects.

“This is a telling attack,” Zelensky said of yesterday’s bombing, even though there is nothing special about it, as attacks from both directions are daily. “It comes at a time when so many efforts have been made to achieve peace and establish a ceasefire, and yet only Russia continues to reject them.” The comment is undoubtedly a nod to the Trump administration, the only one that has made efforts to direct the conflict toward diplomatic channels. However, a series of phone calls, some of them discussing issues unrelated to the war, between the presidents of Russia and the United States, shuttle diplomacy in search of a term sheet with which to begin negotiations, and two face-to-face meetings between Russia and Ukraine in which the Ukrainian delegation had no authority to negotiate any issue except humanitarian issues can hardly be described as so many efforts to achieve peace . Ukraine, which pledged to accept the possibility of a ceasefire only under US pressure, insists on returning to the Biden-era strategy of escalation and threats. “Our partners know how to exert pressure to force Russia to think about ending the war, not launching new attacks. Those who want peace must act,” Zelensky stated, insisting on the imposition of secondary sanctions on countries that trade with Russia and also on the need to increase military supplies, in part to continue and expand its actions on Russian territory. The constant mentions of US determination against Iran have never been accidental.

Minutes before the first Shaheds of the night began to be detected, so a cause-and-effect relationship cannot be assumed in any way, Donald Trump had stated that he was seriously considering imposing sanctions against Russia, telling the press that "Russia talks a lot of nonsense," and criticizing Vladimir Putin for being "always very nice" but "doing nothing." Michael McFaul, John Bolton, and Tymofey Mylovanov, who have been lobbying for weeks for sanctions against Russia and an increase in the flow of military aid to Ukraine under the terms of the Kellogg-Fleitz plan, see their ideal scenario a little closer, and a military solution as the only acceptable way out of the conflict.

“European politicians, intelligence chiefs, and military leaders who warn of a Russian attack should change their attitude. There’s no point in complaining that Russia will attack in x years if, until now, there hasn’t been the courage to give Ukraine everything it needs to win. In other words, the loser mentality and catastrophizing must be replaced by a winner mentality. The central message must be: Russia will be defeated in its war of aggression, no matter what!” wrote Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the Estonian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, in the usual Baltic rhetoric, increasingly adopted by other European countries. “Every time Putin’s Russia advances in Ukraine, the threat comes closer to all of us. And that’s why we will never accept the theory that only the strong are right. Europeans will never abandon Ukraine, never,” Macron told the British Parliament during his state visit yesterday. It was not the most incendiary statement of the day either. In a parliamentary debate in which he criticized both the pro-Russian left and right, Chancellor Merz stated that the space for diplomacy had been exhausted. "When a criminal regime openly questions another country's right to exist with military force and seeks to destroy the political order of freedom throughout the European continent, the federal government I lead will do everything in its power to prevent it," he declared, echoing the more belligerent stances of the war hawks, who, despite their displeasure a few days ago at the news of the temporary suspension of some weapons deliveries to Ukraine, are once again feeling on the crest of a wave.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/10/sin-e ... iplomacia/

Google Translator

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From cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Russian Defense Ministry summary of the progress of the SVO as of July 10, 2025.

Missile strikes: On the night of July 10, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a group strike with high-precision weapons and UAVs on Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises in Kiev and the infrastructure of a military airfield. All targets were hit.

Force Grouping "North": The tactical situation has been improved. A mechanized, ranger, 2 airborne assault brigades, an assault regiment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and 2 territorial defense brigades near Ryzhevka, Kondratovka, Varachino, Yablonovka, Yunakovka, Sadki (Sumy region) were hit. In the Kharkov direction, an airborne assault brigade and 2 territorial defense brigades near Vovchansk and Melove were hit. Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: up to 165 soldiers, 4 armored fighting vehicles, 3 vehicles, 5 guns destroyed (including 2 US M777 howitzers), 3 EW stations, 2 warehouses.

Force Grouping "West": Positions on the front line improved. 2 mechanized brigades, territorial defense and the National Guard near Petro-Ivanovka, Kupyansk (Kharkiv region), Kolodezi, Zelena Dolina (DPR) were damaged. Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: over 225 soldiers, a Snatch armored vehicle (Great Britain), 15 vehicles, 2 EW stations, an AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery station (USA), 5 warehouses destroyed.

Force Grouping "South": Tactical position improved. Four mechanized brigades, an airmobile brigade, and the Azov brigade were damaged near Konstantinovka, Kleban-Byk, Chasovy Yar, Belaya Gora, Seversk, and Shcherbinovka (DPR). Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 205 troops, one tank, seven vehicles, three guns, a RADA station (Israel), and four warehouses.

Force Grouping Center: Advantageous positions were occupied. A heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, an airborne brigade, an airborne assault brigade, an assault regiment, marines, and the National Guard were damaged near Krasnoarmeysk, Dimitrov, Udachny, Rodinsky, Muravka, Petrovskoye (DPR), Filiya, and Novopodgorodny (Dnipropetrovsk region). Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: over 435 troops, 5 armored fighting vehicles (including US HMMWV), 11 vehicles, 5 guns, AN/TPQ-36 (USA) and RADA (Israel) stations destroyed.

Force Group "East" : Advancing deep into the defense. 2 mechanized brigades, marines and 3 territorial defense brigades were destroyed near Karl Marx, Iskra, Kamyshevakha, Voskresenka, Volnoye Pole (DPR) and Malinovka (Zaporizhia region). Ukrainian Armed Forces losses: up to 220 troops, 2 tanks, 3 armored fighting vehicles, 10 vehicles, 2 guns, EW station.

Force Group "Dnepr": Tactical position improved. Mechanized, mountain assault brigades, 2 coastal defense brigades and 3 territorial defense brigades near Kamenskoye, Novoandriyevka, Stepovoye (Zaporizhzhia region), Yantarnoye, Nikolskoye (Kherson region) were hit. Over 60 soldiers, 5 vehicles, 2 guns, 9 electronic warfare stations, 5 warehouses were destroyed.

Russian Aerospace Forces strikes: An ammunition depot, a missile weapons storage site, and deployment points of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and foreign mercenaries in the 131st district were hit.

***

Colonelcassad
The wife of Ukrainian Nazi Butkevich, who regularly made Russophobic statements and called residents of Donbass "unnecessary people," reported that Butkevich was caught by man-catchers and sent to the front to be butchered. Allegedly, for criticizing Yermak's mongrels, he was stripped of his protection by the Ukrainian special services, which used this patched rubber product. They are already waiting for him in Donbass. Welcome to the landing near Krasnoarmeysk.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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The attack was a precision operation that used long-range weapons aimed at neutralizing Ukrainian air bases.

Between Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, Russian armed forces launched Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and long-range drones against Ukrainian military infrastructure.

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The Russian Defense Ministry described the attack as a precision operation using long-range weapons aimed at neutralizing air bases and the operational capacity of the Ukrainian army.

“All designated targets were hit,” Russian authorities said, referring to strategic military airfields used by Ukrainian forces and their NATO allies as key logistical hubs for the supply and deployment of military equipment.

From Kyiv, Ukrainian military officials described the strike as one of the largest recorded to date, claiming that more than 700 drones may have been used. That figure has not been confirmed by Russian sources but underscores the scale of the aerial operation.


The attack brought renewed attention to the use of Kinzhal missiles, a hypersonic weapon system developed by Russia capable of reaching speeds exceeding Mach 10 and evading Western air defense systems.

Their deployment reflects a shift in Russian military doctrine, which now prioritizes the use of advanced deterrent weapons in the face of a protracted conflict in Eastern Europe.

The strike comes amid an increase in Western military support for Ukraine, particularly from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France, which have ramped up deliveries of long-range missiles, drones and precision ammunition. Moscow has repeatedly warned that such actions only escalate the conflict and risk dragging Europe into a spiral of regional instability.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/russia-l ... structure/

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Mobilization murders and Indian spyware

Dead mothers and murdered sons. Mass support for Russian drone attacks on the mobilizers. 'Destroy the traitors'.
Events in Ukraine
Jul 09, 2025

Rest easy all ye lovers of Ukrainian democracy, for Trump seems to want the war to continue. The millions of Ukrainian men banned from leaving the country and forced to die in this unwinnable conflict can continue enjoying themselves.

Yesterday’s post looked at the militaristic radicalization of the Ukrainian elite, with their calls to revoke citizenship from all Ukrainians that ‘spread enemy propaganda’, and their statements that students killed by Russian missiles were an example of ‘karma’, since the students were ‘draft dodgers’.

Now, we’ll move onto the impotent, abused citizens of this heartland of freedom. The wide-ranging menu of technological and coercive tools at the state’s disposal makes attempts at escape the most popular reaction, though some have also been fighting back. Today’s topics include:

— Broken skulls and heart attacks - sons and mothers killed by mobilization

—Woman convicted for sharing anti-mobilization content online

—Ukrainians support Russian drone strikes on mobilization centers and share locations of the ‘rats’

—Death to the unpatriotic: One nationalist colonel declares his new initiative to send Russia the addresses of draft dodgers and ‘traitors’ under the guise of sending the location of a mobilization center.

— The guilty Bali holidays of the tech businessman who created the mobilization app

— Rumors that the mobilization app uses Indian spyware banned in the US

— A 19-year old from a poor family is detained by border patrol at the EU border and charged - his 19th attempt to escape Ukraine

— Poverty levels rise. Ukrainian ministers admit that the minimum wage of $72 USD a month is biologically impossible

— Record low levels of schoolchildren and desperate government attempts to halt the outflow of youth as parents fear the mobilization of their children

This July 8 video is one of the daily examples of mobilization officers beating one of their latest victims and dragging him into their beloved minibus.
(Video at link.)

This took place in Dryhlov, Zhytomyr oblast - apparently, the man had documents proving his exemption from the draft, but this didn’t satisfy the press gang. Far from impossible, given the July 4 statement by the impotent Ukrainian human rights ombudsman Lyudmila Denisova that many are reporting the TSK ignores medical certificates legally exempting individuals from military service.

On July 8, this video of a mother trying to stop mobilization press gangs (TSK) from stealing her son appeared on Ukrainian social media. It took place in the town of Merefo, near Kharkov. The elderly woman can be seen clinging onto the moving minibus her son had been shoved into, until a man dressed in military clothing comes out to push her away. She then collapses in the middle of the road.

Social media users claim that she died of a heart attack. (Video at link.)

For their part, the Kharkiv regional TSK stated soon after that the incident had taken place, but that TSK officers ‘did nothing illegal’. They also claimed that the woman had merely been hospitalized, but was not dead.

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Of course, it is usually men who die in the mobilization process. I wrote a few weeks ago about the case of Maksym Muzychko, a young man severely beaten by TSK (mobilization) officers in mid-June.

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On July 7, his wife reported he had died after days in reanimation, battling meningitis and pneumonia. The mobilization authorities and policies claimed he had jumped out of a car on the way to a training base, while his relatives claimed he had been beaten. Myzuchko’s father ‘disappeared’ while fighting near Pokrovsk in 2024.

Relatives shared grisly details of Myzuchko’s encounter with the mobilization press gangs:

the animals jumped on his head until it cracked and dragged his open skull across the ground. They waited until he’d die, but he managed to fight for 25 days.

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As you can see, his head was bandaged. His black eye hardly conforms to the official story of ‘jumping out of a moving car’.

Maksym himself was a volunteer who helped the army. While he was in hospital, his wife published statements from frontline soldiers praising the help they had received from him, and hoping he would recover.

As the army is increasingly filled with mobilized soldiers, hatred against the TSK (mobilization personnel) grows among those with weapons at the frontlines. A topic for a future article.

Criticism, however, is a punishable offence. On June 29, a woman was convicted in the western Volhyn region for making anti-mobilization social media posts:

According to court materials, in the autumn of 2024, the defendant posted information in a Telegram chat with over 3,800 members about the movements of Ukrainian Armed Forces mobile units, including their locations at checkpoints and addresses where draft notices were being distributed.

In her messages, she included specific details, for example: "A light grey car with a conscription team near the kiosks at the railway station. They’re checking men. A big guy yelled at them, humiliated them, and they left empty-handed" (original wording preserved).

The court classified the woman’s actions as obstructing the lawful activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during a special period.

For this offense, she was sentenced to five years of imprisonment. However, due to her cooperation with the investigation, admission of guilt, and a plea deal with the prosecutor, the court replaced the actual prison term with a two-year suspended sentence.

In addition, the court ordered the confiscation of the mobile phone used to disseminate the information and required the defendant to pay a fine of 2,000 hryvnias.


(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... an-spyware

******

SITREP 7/8/25: Trump Flips on Ammo (Again?), as Russian Steamroller Bursts into Zaporozhye
Simplicius
Jul 08, 2025

This week brings us news that Trump has reversed on his weapons aid suspension to Ukraine—but is there more to this than meet’s the eye?

I believe so: everyone has jumped to conclusions assuming it means full resumption, when in reality Trump never specified what weapons—he merely said we’ll have to send them ‘some’ weapons, and defensive ones at that. It’s likely this could include just a few more Patriots and little else, more as performative gesture to once again appease neocons and relieve pressure from himself. That’s not to mention it’s not any new congressionally-approved weapons packages, but rather trickling resumption of the already dwindling Biden-inked deal.

One wonders how many Patriots the US can realistically even spare:

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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... nterceptor

U.S. Patriot missile stockpiles are at just 25% of required levels. - The Guardian

➡️In 2023, the U.S. Army projected the need for 3,376 missiles to fully support its forces.

➡️A recent oversight memo raises that number to 13,733, citing heavy usage in Ukraine and the Middle East.

➡️Lockheed Martin, the sole producer of PAC-3 MSE missiles, made only 500 units last year. A new contract aims to boost output to 650.

➡️No clear timeline for replenishment has been announced.


Now Trump is also hinting at a ‘surprise’ for Putin, who’s made Trump very ‘unhappy’ recently with his defiant attitude toward the egomaniacal American leader. Once more, this is likely performative in nature and one doubts Trump will cultivate any serious sanctions effort against Russia; not that it would make a difference even if he did. Russia’s accelerating dominance over Ukraine is a runaway train that’s too late to stop.

New satellite photos show massive expansion at Russia’s Alabuga drone factory which produces the Gerans, and which may welcome an additional 25,000 North Korean workers, as per recent Western reports:

New satellite images of the industrial cluster in Yelabuga (Tatarstan), where Geranium-2 drones are produced, are being actively discussed. Judging by the published data, the industrial zone is actively expanding, which indicates plans to increase the production of UAVs of this type. (Video at link.)

On the satellite image, the construction of 52 dormitories for workers is marked in yellow (a total of 72 are allegedly planned), and new production buildings are marked in red.

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These expansions in Russian drone and missile production will ensure that Ukraine will drown in daily attacks that no global air defense missile production will be able to keep up with. Russia already launched another over 500-drone strike only a day or two after launching the first such attack late last week.



The biggest news on the front is the announcement by various Ukrainian sources that Russia has launched a full blown offensive in Zaporozhye across the length of the entire front.

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This has already resulted in some early breakthroughs.

The most notable was in Kamyanske, where Russian forces—as of the latest updates—reportedly succeeded in taking the entire town after several days of storming operations. It is not yet showing up on all maps because clearing operations are being carried out, but essentially this entire area was taken in a matter of days, and Russian forces have even begun entering the next settlement of Plavni to the north:

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A powerful breakthrough in Kamenskoye in the Zaporizhzhia direction - our assault groups broke through up to 1.5 kilometers - Geolocation: 47.548071,35.349864

Soldiers from the 247th Regiment "Rostov Battalion" of the Russian Armed Forces liberated the village of Kamenskoye in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, raising the national flag and the unit's banner in the middle of the village.

Russian paratroopers from the 7th Airborne Assault Division, Group “Dnepr”, took part in the liberation of Kamenskoye on the Zaporizhzhia front.

(Video at link.)

A more detailed write-up of the assault:

In the second half of June 2025, Russian airborne units launched one of the most significant attacks on the southern defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, breaking through the positions of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade near the Yanchekraq River near the village of Kamenskoye.

The line, which had been held by the Ukrainian side since April 2022, was considered one of the most stable sections of the front. The disruption of this defense and the establishment of a bridgehead on the northern bank of the Yanchekrak River means not just a tactical success, but the beginning of a change in the operational configuration of the entire Zaporizhzhia arc, according to Military Chronicle:

The offensive was led by the 247th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment of the 7th Guards Division. The attack took place early in the morning of June 23, after a massive air assault, using FABs and Kh-39 guided missiles launched from Ka-52M helicopters.

Immediately after that, the assault groups crossed the river near the destroyed road bridge, broke through the forward positions of the 230th battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and occupied the building of an elementary school, which was used by the Ukrainian side as a field communications center.

A counterattack launched on June 25 using JDAM guided bombs was unsuccessful: Russian units not only retained their positions, but also expanded them, turning the wedge point into a stable bridgehead up to 2 km wide and up to 600 meters deep.

At the same time, the Russian 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment continued to exert pressure on the southeastern part of Kamianske, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces had been holding a small bridgehead since December 2024, occupied by the Kraken Special Forces. The remnants of the 241st Territorial Brigade, consisting of the 204th, 207th, and 251st Battalions, are also active in the area. These units are currently facing the threat of being completely cut off and forced to retreat behind the Yanchekraq River.

The bridgehead created by the Russian landing force is key for future advancements westward towards Orekhov and the northwestern direction of Vasilyevka-Dneprorudnoye. The Ukrainian side believes that, given the fatigue, understaffing, and demoralization of Ukrainian reserves in the area, the establishment of a stable line on the northern bank of the Yanchekraq River could lead to the Russian forces reaching the operational rear of the Ukrainian defense line in the Zaporizhzhia region.


Other advances along the line were recorded, particularly in Mala Tokmachka where Russian forces captured nearly a third of the town from its eastern end.

Other areas just east of Kamyanske were also captured to straighten out the line:

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Further east, in the last update we had reported how Russian forces began to approach Poddubne and Voskresenka, north of the Velyka Novosilka front. Now Russian forces have fully captured Poddubne and even expanded areas of control all around it:

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For those wondering, this is along the old Marinka-Kurakhove-Bogatyr line:

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Guardsmen of the 36th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army raise the flag in Poddubnoye, west of Zirka South Donetsk direction .

Quote:

After occupying the first houses in Poddubnoye, the enemy's resistance was broken. Part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces abandoned their positions and fled the battlefield. During the fighting for the village, up to a company from the 37th Motorised Rifle Brigade and 141st Motorised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed.


(Video at link.)

Between Pokrovsk and Toretsk, Russian forces expanded control around Razine, west of recently-captured Koptjeve. They continue to put encircling pressure on the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration by now assaulting towards Novoekonomichne:

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07.07.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Novoekonomicheskoe

Active combat operations in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) area.

Attack of the Russian Armed Forces by an armored column in the direction of Novoekonomicheskoe. Armored vehicles advance through residential areas and land troops in the southern part of the settlement. Shelling from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Advancement of the Russian Armed Forces 2.5 km on the eastern outreach of Krasnoarmeysk, assault units reaching new positions in Novoekonomicheskoe.


Ukrainian footage of a Russian column geolocated passing through Mykolaivka into neighboring Novoekonomichne: (Video at link.)

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The mine-roller-armed Russian ‘barn’ tanks can be seen shrugging off numerous drone hits, which proves the cope cage or ‘shed’ technology works. Troops are successfully dropped off to capture advanced positions in the settlement.

By the way, this is one of the reasons Russian tank losses have been trending toward record lows, as outlined in the last premium article. It’s not only that Russia has been using less tanks, but that the ‘grille’ or ‘barn’ technology has come a long way, and does actually succeed in protecting tanks. Even when tanks are disabled, the defensive cages and ‘barns’ result in the enemy drones not being able to penetrate with truly critical hits. They may disable the tank, but not in a catastrophic way, which allows engineers to still recover the tank much more easily than otherwise.

The other big update is that Russian forces made an unexpected breakthrough in the north Kharkov region, capturing a new chunk of Ukrainian territory just over the Russian border northwest of Kupyansk:

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The plan will obviously be to connect the two areas into one common front, then eventually connect it with the Vovchansk front much farther west.

Some analysts believe Ukraine is now building a large new fallback line west of Kramatorsk for the eventuality that Donbass will fall:

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More from Clement Molin’s analysis of satellite footage:

The two ukrainian lines forming together the "New Donbass Line" are both beyond all Donbass cities, Izioum, Lyman, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Droujkivka, Kostiantynivka, Dobropilla, Pokrovsk. The new one, in orange, is not yet very developed, only few positions and 1 to 2 ditches.

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The general situation is that Russian forces are slowly effecting a cauldron around the key cities of Konstantinovka and the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration:

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Now let’s cover a last few sundry items:

Dmitry Medvedev announced that Russia has seen 228,000 people sign up to the armed forces just through July 1st of this year alone. This amounts to exactly 38,000 per month: (Video at link.)

Kiev Post recently quoted Zelensky as follows:

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-mobil ... 45204.html


In the last premium article featuring talk of Russian armor losses, a few people asked about Ukrainian armor losses and remaining tank numbers. Here is one source—Lost Armour—albeit considered a very conservative estimate with a far more stringent reporting criteria and standards.

Main battle tanks:

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This is an AI translation, so for clarity, the three columns on the left are the total initial number of tanks, the number of losses, and then the number remaining. So under Abrams M1A1, there were 31 to start with, 21 lost, and 10 remaining.

According to this estimate, Ukraine would have about 624 total tanks remaining, while Russia reportedly fields somewhere in the 1,200 - 1,500 range at any given time, with constant replenishment from the thousands more in storage, and the ~300 yearly new T-90Ms being manufactured. Ukraine, on the other hand, is not receiving any new ones that we know of, and thus any losses continue plummeting its number of total tanks.

As stated, this list appears to be conservative given that some believe virtually all Abrams have now been destroyed, and from memory, I recall at least four or more Challengers being destroyed rather than two as shown above.

IFVs are next:

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As can be seen a bit more than half of the 300 Bradleys have been destroyed, though Ukraine may retain around 1,000+ total IFVs, the bulk of which are BMP-1s and 2s.

MRAPS and APCs shows the highest number, as these are essentially infinite in NATO countries and can be supplied forever:

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More significant are mobile artillery units:

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It shows 646 self-propelled artillery of various kinds still remaining, though it must be taken into account that: 1. it’s a very conservative methodology in regard to counting losses—for instance, I’m almost positive I’ve seen far more than merely 3 PzH 2000s destroyed; and 2. a huge portion of those assets would be inoperable at any given time due to maintenance issues. Again, with the PzH 2000 in particular, we’ve seen in previous Western publications that a large number of them have broken down on the front. Out of a possible 646, I’d wager 350-400 active at any given time, if not less.

And lastly airforce assets, for those interested:

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The director of Defense Priorities think tank states that Ukraine’s biggest problem is not shortage of weapons, but that of manpower. She correctly infers that ‘more weapons’ will not solve Ukraine’s issues, when there are no people to man those weapons. (Video at link.)

She makes the good point that Iran and China would love to see US continue dumping its treasure into the black hole of Ukraine.

On that note, China’s FM Wang Yi recently dropped a bombshell, for the first time vocalizing China’s commitment to Russia’s SMO:

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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diploma ... ources-say

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing cannot afford a Russian loss in Ukraine because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.

Wang made a further humorous statement, rejecting that China was ‘materially’ supporting Russia because if it did so, the conflict would have ended long ago. A bit of Chinese hubris or…reality?

More and more recently clues have surfaced of China’s support, including Ukrainian channels finding various Chinese parts in new Russian Geran drones, Chinese lasers and other items flooding the Russian frontline, etc. Most are aware that the vast majority of lower end Russian EW systems on the front for the past couple years have been from China, and this goes for many other things like communications, satellite ‘GPS’ transceivers in drones, etc. That’s not to even mention the transports like DesertCross 1000 vehicles and the flood of motorcycles hitting the front. And then there’s the whole backend, with recent reports indicating mass Chinese machining tool transfers for the expansion of Russian tank and barrel production, amongst other things; the list can go on and on.



Favorite Austrian Colonel Reiser also added his two cents recently, agreeing with the think tanker above—Ukraine has too few soldiers: (Video at link.)

And also from Austria: (Video at link.)

“Our most desired outcome is Russia’s defeat, but the Ukrainians are taking heavy losses,” said Gustav Gressel, military expert at the Austrian National Defence Academy in Vienna. (Video at link.)

“It would of course be wonderful if they [the Ukrainians] actually won this war. A humiliating defeat for Moscow would lead to a new political Russia. That’s the most desirable outcome. However, in the fourth year of the war, the question arises: ‘The Ukrainians are exhausted, they’ve taken huge losses in this fight — are they even still capable of achieving that?’ What Europeans can do — even without the U.S. — is at least prevent Ukraine’s defeat.”



Arestovich made waves with a recent video where he gave a truthful breakdown of Russia’s war on Ukraine. (Video at link.)

He admits that Russia could end Ukraine easily in a month or two if it really wanted, but that Putin instead has chosen to keep the war to a minimum ‘background’ so that the country’s development can take precedence. In fact, Putin has miraculously threaded the needle in this way thus far, managing the impossible: somehow simultaneously keeping the war in the ‘background’, while also elevating it to a new national mythos, centering the entire development of the country around it.

It’s a bizarre contradiction and paradox in one. Do I personally agree with this approach? Not necessarily, and share many of the concerns from the critics of this ‘half way’ policy; but you can’t deny that it is working. The only question is, whether a different ‘sledgehammer’ approach would have worked even better—or at least more quickly, with less lives lost.



Ex-Aidar deputy commander Ihor Mosiychuk leaked a document that was reportedly given to him by an unnamed Ukrainian government minister. The ‘secret’ document is claimed to concern the relocation of the Kiev government to the west of the country:

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In the aftermath, Mosiychuk states that Kiev claimed the document is fake, but he reiterates it is genuine—straight from his TG channel:

The authorities are preparing to move to the Western regions of our country

Here is such a document that was sent out today by the Cabinet of Ministers to government bodies and state structures. It states that a Decision has been made and the corresponding Orders are being issued to prepare places and premises in the territorial divisions of the western regions of Ukraine for the placement and work of ministries and departments if necessary.

Important! The document is genuine, it was provided by one of the recipients who exercise government powers.

There is a big commotion in the Cabinet of Ministers now, they are trying to create a version that this document is a fake. And all because they made a colossally gross mistake - they did not assign a secrecy label to the document, which is why officials and officials began to share it among themselves and other people. That is: officials began to warn loved ones about the possible threats that the authorities are considering, confirming this with this document.


We’ve already heard leaks a while back that this would be the case—but why now?

There are a few speculative possibilities: recall rumors of Russia attempting another Kiev push after the Zapad exercises in Belarus this coming September. If not that, then it’s possible Kiev fears that after Sumy, the Russian Army could steam roll westward to Kiev.

There are continued rumors about another 30,000 North Korean troops, and now also Laotian troops, coming to Sumy. Most likely all this is fake, and Russia will not be marching down to Kiev any time soon, but it’s something to keep an eye on, particularly after recent rumors that Ukraine was forced to pull reserves from all along the Belarusian border to bolster defenses in Sumy region.



Lastly, the most absurd thing you may hear all year: CNN reveals leaked audio of Trump claiming that he ‘scared away’ both Putin and Xi by telling them he would bomb Moscow and Beijing. This was reported last year, but only through hearsay—now there’s a direct leaked recording of it. Of all Trump’s most flagrantly egomaniacal excesses, this may top them all:

(Audio clips at link. Just when you think he couldn't be a more delusional lying asshole he jumps the shark yet again. I cannot understand how anyone believes anything he says.)

What’s the difference between “going into” Ukraine on Trump’s watch, and already being there, bombing it daily? Russia is there now, exerting its dominance, all under his watch—why doesn’t Trump deliver on his empty threat now? It seems Bibi’s leash may have deprived the bronzer addict’s brain of oxygen—he may need to loosen it up a notch or two; and put the ball gag back in while he’s at it, to save us all the expectorating delusions and embarrassment.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... ammo-again

******

About night strikes on Ukrainian airfields. 09.07.2025
July 9, 21:07

Image

Based on the results of the night strikes.

Last night, the Russian Armed Forces successfully carried out an operation to mass eliminate the enemy Air Force.

As a result of the joint work of the Russian Aerospace Forces, missile forces, and reconnaissance, 2 Su-27s and up to 10 pieces of support equipment were destroyed at the Ozerny airfield, and an attack was made on the location of the airfield personnel - the enemy lost up to 30 servicemen of the engineering and technical service. An aviation weapons depot and a fuel and lubricants storage facility

were destroyed. At the same time, a combined attack was made on the Lutsk airfield.
As a result of the attack, one F-16 aircraft, up to 8 pieces of ground support equipment, and 2 radar stations were destroyed.
An attack was made on a fortified shelter where the airfield personnel were located, as a result of the attack, 3 foreign specialists supporting the F-16 were killed, in addition, 10 people from the engineering and technical service of the Ukrainian Air Force were killed. In addition, up to 30 people with injuries of varying severity were taken from the airfield to city medical institutions.

An extremely successful operation.
We believe that this significantly improves the negotiating environment.

https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka - zinc

The enemy stated in the morning that up to 700 drones of various types, not counting missiles, were launched during the night strike.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9946551.html

SBU Colonel Eliminated in Kyiv
July 10, 12:58

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But there is also good news.
In Kiev, an unknown liquidator killed SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich.

Voronich was a senior operative officer of the 1st department of the 16th department of the SBU Special Operations Center. Read, he was involved in organizing terrorist attacks on the territory of Russia.

Information about the liquidation of Voronich was confirmed by the Nazi Mosiychuk.
According to him, the liquidator fed Voronich lead and disappeared. They are currently looking for him.

Video of the liquidation is here https://t.me/boris_rozhin/171941

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9947299.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Jul 11, 2025 11:47 am

Against the peace process that never began
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 11/07/2025

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"Today, in Rome, our security format, the Coalition of the Willing, continues," Andriy Ermak announced yesterday, specifying that "the meeting is underway right now. For the first time, representatives of the United States have joined this format: General Keith Kellogg and Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal." Rome is these days the nerve center of Ukraine's fight to achieve its main objectives: more weapons, short-term financing for its military industry, and long-term financing for reconstruction. Several European leaders spoke about the latter throughout the day, as the annual reconstruction summit, a business promotion format that has been taking place since 2022, was the ideal venue. More clearly than the rest, Pedro Sánchez stated that the objective of what Eldiario.es correctly called a "business meeting" is to dedicate it to "those corporations that are interested in contributing to reconstruction."

The reconstruction summit is also the ideal forum to once again demand foreign funding that will outlast the current war, which has destroyed the productive fabric that three decades of privatization and oligarchic economics had not destroyed, with the exception, of course, of the military industry, which Ukraine is trying to protect. The shortage of air defenses and the intelligence work carried out in recent months means that a significant portion of the Russian drones and missiles fired in the current night attacks are aimed precisely at disrupting weapons production, especially drones, carried out in the country. Ukraine, which has proclaimed itself a world power in drone innovation and production, is currently seeking foreign investment to sustain this industry, which it cannot afford to sustain with its own resources.

“At the Ukraine Recovery Conference, I said, ‘We must build a recovery coalition, with a Marshall Plan-like recovery plan.’ And as Russia escalates its attacks, we cannot afford a shortage of funding for defense production,” Zelensky stated in his speech. Three years and billions in humanitarian, financial, and military aid later, the Ukrainian president continues to demand even more money from his allies, from whom he expects a long-term commitment, in part so that current foreign revenues do not become a debt that Ukraine has neither the intention nor the ability to pay. Yet, using the arrogance of war, Ukrainian officials continue to indulge in mockery of the Russian Federation, its industry, its production, and its economy. "The outlook remains the same: a fall in the ruble in the second half of the year, a total deficit of 7-8 trillion rubles by the end of the year, followed by the complete depletion of the National Wealth Fund and similar federal and regional reserves, and the inevitable confiscation of citizens' bank deposits," Mikhail Podolyak predicted yesterday from a country, Ukraine, that depends on regular payments from the European Union to sustain the state, pretending that its economy is still standing and, as reflected by Zelensky's appeal to the Marshall Plan, is aware that its economic subordination to its Western allies will not disappear with the end of the war. Indeed, this is kyiv's main economic objective today: to ensure that payments do not stop and that it is Russia, through reparations, and Western countries that bear the cost of the multi-billion-dollar reconstruction.

But despite the annual summit ritual, which addresses the country's future, its reforms , the need for public-private partnerships —that is, the privatization of the little that survived the 1990s, Petro Poroshenko, and Volodymyr Zelensky—what matters most to Kiev now is not the promises of €10 billion in future investments, but what Ukraine will receive in the short term in the form of weapons, military cooperation, and sanctions against Russia. “Last night and this morning, the Russians inflicted another massive terrorist attack against the people of Ukraine: 400 drones, 18 missiles, two people dead in Kyiv, and dozens injured—a clear escalation of terrorism. A call to our partners: we must speed up everything: weapons production, sanctions, pressure. Every delay costs lives. Russia must suffer the consequences,” wrote Yulia Svyrydenko, to which Volodymyr Zelensky added that “just tonight, in Kyiv, two people were killed and sixteen were injured.” The low mortality rate caused by the latest Ukrainian attacks reflects two aspects: the fact that Russia is not attacking civilian targets but primarily logistics and military industry, and the lack of air defenses. It is the downing or deflection of drones and missiles that redirect these projectiles against residential buildings, causing a large proportion of civilian casualties. Paradoxically, and contrary to the Ukrainian narrative that Patriot systems save thousands of lives, civilians are safer when air defenses have more difficulty shooting down Shaheds and other Russian drones.

However, it is more important for Ukraine to maintain the security of its military industry, which is necessary to compensate for what its allies are failing to supply. Hence the calls for a massive increase in arms supplies to, according to the Ukrainian narrative, achieve peace through force . “The formula for ending terrorism remains the same: economic sanctions, long-range capabilities to destroy the production of killing machines, and a shield in the sky made of drones and missile systems,” wrote Andriy Ermak, summing up much of Kiev's aspirations in a nutshell: coercive measures against Russia and long-range missiles to restore the failed strategy of the final phase of the Biden era.

"This coordinated pressure will make the difference," Sir Keir Starmer declared yesterday, referring to the legislation that Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal have begun to advance in the Senate and that will give Donald Trump the opportunity to sign a law that would impose 500% tariffs on products from those countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and do not contribute to financing Ukraine's war effort. Graham's statement, whose hatred of Moscow and Beijing has been proven over the years, is evidently designed for China, which has not contributed a single euro to Ukraine's defense and continues to trade normally with its Russian ally while its Western opponents threaten it with such measures. After three years, 18 sanctions packages, and billions of euros invested in sustaining the Ukrainian state and military, the main hope of European capitals is the man who openly spoke of fighting Russia "to the last Ukrainian" and who put the idea of ​​seizing Ukraine's mineral resources on Donald Trump's table.

The Graham and Blumenthal legislation is just beginning its journey, but Marco Rubio's comments yesterday, which left the decision on when to sign it in the hands of Donald Trump, are reminiscent of what lobbyist Marc Thiesen proposed in an article published by The Washington Post , in which he called the measure a sword of Damocles hanging over the Russian leader's head and added that the passage of the law and the threat of a presidential signature "would empower Trump and reinforce his leverage in the negotiations by giving him the power to impose crippling sanctions against Russia at any time he chooses. And it would underscore that the United States is politically united with Trump in supporting this approach." Even without a trade agreement with the United States, which threatens to impose tariffs that would significantly increase the prices of continental products in the North American market, the European Union has not hesitated to join the threat of closing the US market to products from its main trading partner, China.

Aware that he must provide the United States with something to support the continuation of the dialogue process between the two countries, Lavrov yesterday presented Marco Rubio with a new proposal that, according to the US Secretary of State, is novel and will be conveyed to Donald Trump, who is much more skeptical of any word from Russia now than he was a few months ago, when he naively hoped that Washington would have the possibility of ending the war simply by the United States' presence at the negotiating table. "We need more pressure on Russia. They are not preparing for peace. Putin has rejected all peace offers and continues to escalate the situation," Volodymyr Zelensky insisted once again yesterday, with words very similar to those of Trump's envoy for Ukraine. "We are trying to reach a ceasefire. We reached a reasonable agreement with Ukraine. But Russia never complies," Keith Kellogg stated. This is the new official Trumpist line, also echoed by US Speaker Mike Johnson, who added that "Vladimir Putin has demonstrated his unwillingness to be reasonable and to talk seriously about peace negotiations."

The US narrative is based on the assertion that Russia has refused to make concessions or even negotiate, despite being offered various avenues for dialogue and ways to achieve a ceasefire. The figure of Keith Kellogg, rejected by Moscow as a mediator because he is considered an exponent of the military-industrial complex and rightly perceived as excessively close to kyiv, increasingly weighs heavily on it. The United States has taken months to join this trend, led by Ukraine and its European allies, who accepted the idea of ​​a ceasefire imposed on Russia precisely because it would not involve negotiations, something they openly reject, as their hope remains to continue fighting until kyiv can reach a peace process under pressure.

In his nearly six months in office, Donald Trump has not achieved what he desired: a ceasefire. Although he has made more progress than Biden and his European partners with his strategy of gradual escalation, with at least two massive prisoner-of-war release processes underway, the two largest prisoner-of-war releases have taken place. Beyond this humanitarian measure, time has passed with Washington trying to obtain what Kellogg calls a "term sheet ," that is, the negotiating positions of the parties. Rather than seeing this as the starting point for future dialogue, Kellogg has established the view that Russia's rejection of the terms of his proposal—which is, in reality, that of the European countries and Ukraine, designed to be unacceptable to the Kremlin by including a military presence of NATO countries in the country—constitutes a "failure to comply." It also constitutes a refusal to accept the ceasefire ultimatum put forward by the European countries, which threatened decisive sanctions that never materialized because they had to come from the United States. Between the gruesome spectacle of Starmer and Macron's plans, which at times assume the imminent arrival of European troops in Ukraine and at others deny this possibility, and the incompetence of Trumpism, which has failed to grasp that no negotiation process has yet taken place, tensions are rising, the hawks are returning to the headlines with their threats, and the risk of a peace that resolves the conflict—the scenario most feared by kyiv and its European allies—is significantly reduced. The war continues while world leaders talk about a reconstruction whose start they cannot foresee in the short term.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/11/32584/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Oleksandr Syrsky has two main options left to help Kiev avoid defeat in the military conflict with Moscow, writes the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung.

The first is to try to minimize losses in the face of Russian advancement and prevent large units from being encircled. The second involves a gradual withdrawal from the front line and the occupation of new positions. It is designed to "prevent capitulation and preserve the army" even if the outcome of negotiations is unfavorable for Ukraine, NZZ reports.

The newspaper writes that Ukraine is considering the second option, as evidenced by the creation of fortifications 20 km from the front line.

But the choice will be made in favor of the usual strategy of overwhelming with cannon fodder, while there is still someone to recruit.

***

Colonelcassad
The main points of Peskov's statements:

- The Europeans are discussing various options for the financial support of Ukraine in order to encourage Kiev to continue the war to the last Ukrainian.

- The persistence of European leaders regarding the possible deployment of troops in Ukraine fits into the general outline of anti-Russian sentiments.

- The deployment of foreign military contingents on the territory of Ukraine, near the Russian borders, is unacceptable for Moscow.

- Russia is disappointed that its signals regarding the possible presence of foreign troops in Ukraine are not being taken into account.

- Chancellor Merz is an apologist for confrontation with Russia in everything, Moscow takes this into account in its actions.

- On US plans to sell weapons to NATO countries for delivery to Ukraine: this is business, the sum does not change when the terms are changed.

- The process of exchanges between Russia and Ukraine continues, work is underway, Moscow is waiting for proposals on the timing of a new round of negotiations.

***

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Failure to account for
the strike on the regional TCC in Odessa

Russian troops continue their campaign of successive destruction of TCC facilities in different regions of the so-called Ukraine. If last time the arrivals were noted in Kharkov and occupied Zaporozhye , then this time early in the morning the drones visited Odessa .

Local authorities and the TCC command have not yet officially commented on the arrival. At the same time, residents are sharing footage of strikes on, allegedly, the building of the regional TCC in the Moldavanka area. Judging by the videos published online , several UAVs flew at the facility at once, but there is no footage of them nearby yet.

Thus, Russian troops are continuing their already systematic work to destroy such facilities. It is unlikely that they will be able to eliminate a large number of TCC personnel, but it is quite possible to destroy military registration databases and other documentation that could slow down the "busification".

Such strikes should be continued in order to disrupt the mobilization plans of the Kiev regime. Considering that the TCC and everything connected with them in Ukrainian society is associated with kidnappings, beatings and torture of citizens, the strikes also have a great informational and psychological effect.

***

Colonelcassad
From July 5 to July 11, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out six group strikes with high-precision weapons, including Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles and unmanned attack aerial vehicles , which hit enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, energy infrastructure facilities that supported their operation, military airfields, assembly and storage sites for unmanned attack aerial vehicles and unmanned boats, arsenals, fuel and military-technical property depots, territorial recruitment centers for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as temporary deployment points for Ukrainian armed formations and foreign mercenaries.

Over the course of the week, air defense systems shot down a Neptune long-range guided missile, 35 guided aerial bombs, six US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets, and 1,988 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

***

Colonelcassad
0:06
In Odessa, a blow was dealt to the regional TCC on Zenkovetska. In the comments under the video of the landing on Ukrainian resources, local residents thank the Russian Armed Forces for the targeted work on the denazification of Odessa.

***

Colonelcassad
Key points from Lavrov's press conference following the Russia-ASEAN meeting and the EAS ministerial meeting:

- Ukraine was discussed at the meeting with Rubio on Thursday, where Russia's position on the conflict settlement was confirmed, and the parties did not discuss the fate of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

- Lavrov gave Rubio an excerpt from quotes from Zelensky, Shmygal and Yermak, who directly speak about the need to "destroy the Russians."

- Answering a question about what Russia's allegedly new approach to Ukraine is, he said that he would answer "in Trump's words - that's what I'll tell you."

- The tariffs that Washington is introducing against other states are also sanctions.

- Russia will do everything to prevent provocations against the DPRK: "this could end badly."

- Projects to create emirates in the Palestinian territories are a big challenge for the international community; risks are emerging regarding the prospects for forming a Palestinian state.

***

Colonelcassad
During the past night, from 23:00 Moscow time on July 10 this year until 7:00 Moscow time on July 11 this year. The air defense systems on duty intercepted and destroyed 155 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles of the fixed-wing type :

- 53 UAVs over the territory of the Kursk region ,
- 19 UAVs over the territory of the Bryansk region ,
- 15 UAVs over the territory of the Smolensk region , - 14 UAVs over the territory of the Belgorod region , - 13 UAVs over the territory of the Tula region , - 11 UAVs over the territories of the Oryol region and the Moscow region , - 7 UAVs over the territory of the Republic of Crimea , - 4 UAVs over the territory of the Lipetsk region and over the waters of the Black Sea , - 2 UAVs over the territories of the Rostov and Kaluga regions .

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Who's Unhappy: Putin or Trump?
Plus, Dmitri Trenin's latest
Karl Sanchez
Jul 10, 2025

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Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was reported by TASS today as saying:
Russia "will keep pushing" the US regarding the return of diplomatic properties: "There is clearly a lack of meaningful response from the American side on this matter. We will keep pushing."
So, the most basic, fundamental step Team Trump could take to rebuild trust with Russia—return the diplomatic properties stolen from Russia—has yet to be done, with the bolded text saying that zero has happened on that issue. So, Trump’s hundreds of pre-election boasts that he’d end the war in his first 24 hours were not only empty, but he’s made no effort to try and soften relations as he said he would. And there are many more points of evidence I could compile to show it’s Putin who’s disappointed with Trump for his lack of action—let’s call it procrastination. Meanwhile, Putin and Russia’s position hasn’t changed one iota since June of 2024—13 months now—and from what emerges from Trump’s mouth, he still doesn’t comprehend Russia’s unshakable position.

There’s nothing Trump can do to alter the basic historical fact that the Outlaw US Empire engaged in a Preplanned Aggressive War against Russian speaking Ukrainians and is thus responsible for all the crimes committed during that war since it was the one who committed the #1 Most Heinous Crime of waging Aggressive War, which was the judgement of the Nuremburg Tribunals—a judgment the USA agreed to and ratified. This isn’t a new point I’m raising as I’ve written several articles about the legal issues of Ukraine over the last year. And of course, Ukraine isn’t the first Act of Aggressive War the Outlaw US Empire has committed since WW2—there are many when we include all the coups it’s sponsored which are also aggressive acts of war and the assassinations of foreign leaders and other public figures, like its own Martin Luther King Jr. or Malcom X to name just two of too many. And of course, we have Team Trump continuing the Empire’s support for the Zionist Genocide in Palestine and another Act of Aggressive War carried out against Iran.

So, is Trump really disappointed with Putin or is he disappointed in his own performance given his narcissism? But he must be proud of his escalation of the Class War on his fellow citizens and his own support base—the poor MAGA whites. The just passed “Big Beautiful Bill” is one of the most regressive acts against poor people ever passed by Congress. Top that with the crazy level of tariffs, and some of the more dire warnings about Trump’s agenda become credible. My wife works in the public health sector of our county government and has seen the massive budget cuts that are in the pipeline that will affect the poor most of all along with rural governments nationally. And yes, Trump is very proud of his accomplishment as he showed when he signed that legislation. And the monies that went to financing all those programs are being sent to the top 10% via tax cuts, military funding and other corruption. The Parasites are sucking what blood remains in the Host at a faster pace than ever before.

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Dmitri Trenin

Yesterday, Dmitri Trenin, Director of the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the Higher School of Economics, wrote an op/ed for Kommersant, “The War Will Be Long,” which was picked-up translated and altered by RT for publication today. My practice is to provide the translation of the original because of RT’s past and present manipulations that I’ve denounced every time I encounter one. IMO, Trenin makes clear that Putin knows the Outlaw US Empire’s plans, which is the basic reason why Putin doesn’t yield anything to Trump. Here’s Trenin:
The war will be long
Dmitri Trenin on the intermediate results of the "special diplomatic operation"

The verbal shuffling of the current American president is Donald Trump's signature style. They need to be monitored but not overestimated: neither in a more favorable or less favorable direction for us. It should also be understood that Trump is not the "king" of America and that the "Trump revolution" that was talked about at the beginning of the year seems to have been replaced by the evolution of Trump himself towards rapprochement with the American establishment.

From this position, it makes sense to look at the intermediate results of our "special diplomatic operation"–-six telephone conversations between the presidents, talks between foreign ministers and foreign policy aides of the heads of state, as well as communication at other high levels.

The positive part includes, first of all, the restoration of dialogue between Russia and the United States, interrupted by the Joe Biden administration.

It is also important that this dialogue is not limited to discussing the war in Ukraine. Potential opportunities for cooperation in a number of areas are outlined, from geopolitics to transport and sports. So far, this is not very relevant, but it may be useful in the future. After all, the resumed dialogue, most likely, will not be interrupted under Trump, although its intensity and tone will change.

Dialogue with the United States led to the resumption of negotiations with the Ukrainian side in Istanbul. The negotiations themselves have no political sense now, and prisoner of war exchanges took place without them. It is important, however, that the fact of direct contact with Kiev reinforced the key thesis of our diplomacy about Russia's readiness for a political solution to the conflict.

These acquisitions are, of course, technical and tactical in nature.

From the very beginning, it was obvious that it would not be possible to agree with Trump on Ukraine on terms that would meet Russia's security requirements.

And of course, no one would negotiate with Trump at the expense of Russia's security. It would also be naïve to assume that Trump will completely "surrender" Ukraine, unite with the Kremlin against the European Union and go to a "new Yalta" in the form of a renewed Big Three, already consisting of the United States, Russia and China.

So, the page has been turned. What's next? Trump is likely to sign the new sanctions bill, but at the same time he will leave himself the opportunity to apply it at his own discretion. The new measures will add instability to world trade, but will not have an impact on Russian policy. Trump will transfer the remnants of weapons from the "Biden packages" to Ukraine and, possibly, will be forced to add something "on his own", but in the future, the bulk of military assistance to Kyiv will come from Europe or through Europe (Berlin and others will purchase American systems and transfer them to the Ukrainians). The United States will continue to transfer intelligence to Ukraine that is critical for strikes, especially deep into Russian territory.

The war will not end in 2025. It will not end after the end of hostilities in Ukraine.

We need to realize that the current conflict is not about Ukraine as such.

This is a proxy (so far) war of the West against Russia. And this confrontation itself is part of an ongoing world war, in which the West is fighting to maintain world hegemony. This will be a long war, and the United States, with or without Trump, will remain our adversary. At stake for us in this struggle is not the status of Ukraine, but the existence of Russia.
As you see, the conclusion is emphasized, and IMO is 100% correct. The Collective Western Empire is at war not just with Russia but with the entire Global Majority, although there are certain distinctions that can be made regarding the amount of involvement each member of the Collective Western Empire as some nations are already very unwilling members while the few vassals outside the West are reconsidering their position finally via their national interests. The new pending sanctions bill in Congress is supposed to apply 500% tariffs onto the goods of any nation trading with Russia, which ironically includes the Empire as it must have Russian enriched uranium fuel for its nuclear reactors amongst other critical materials. I previously wrote about that bill and the havoc it would cause on the USA, which as with all previous sanctions end up being own goals with negligible effect on Russia. What that bill would do is further isolate the USA from international trade and drive domestic inflation to new heights. Even now as Russia continues to make gains on the battlefield, we see the next round set of aggravations along the Arc of Instability already forming with Moldova, Armenia, and possibly Azerbaijan. Escalation also threatens in the Baltic Sea, and I still anticipate NATO attacks on Russia’s Arctic energy infrastructure.

The cui bono question must be asked about EU/NATO trying to instigate a war with Russia. IMO, Russia can be ruled out as there’s nothing in Europe it would want. The greater mass of Europeans don’t want war and several NATO members have said no to war with Russia. NATO lacks the military power to win a war against Russia. All it could do is to perform the same “service” provided by the Arc of Instability to distract Russia from repopulating and developing its nation. Such an act would also destabilize BRICS and especially China’s efforts and thus limit the Global Majority’s development possibilities. The result as many analysts are beginning to admit is another global war is underway, albeit in a hybrid mode. So, again, who does this war serve. I have only one answer: the ancien regime that’s now located in North America with a branch office in London.

https://karlof1.substack.com/p/whos-unh ... n-or-trump

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How staged videos with Russian prisoners of war are filmed
July 10, 21:00

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The DPR Joker posted internal IPSO documents about the filming of staged videos involving Russian prisoners of war.

Two servicemen of the 132nd brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, Vyacheslav Yuryevich Trutnev, born November 27, 1994, and Dmitry Alekseevich Ostrovsky, were captured by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But the enemy does not put them on the exchange lists. In fact, they were taken into slavery in order to be used in staged materials of the Ukrainian units of Information and Psychological Operations. In these materials, they pretend to be deserters who allegedly live peacefully in Russia and saw content about how bad it is in the Russian army and all that. Mostly in the "roulette" chat. In the video ( https://t.me/JokerDPR/1339?single ) you can see how Ukrainian specialists instruct them before filming. We also managed to identify some officers of the 72nd InfoPsyOps Center of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who were involved in this (in the photo):

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- Ilya Nikolaevich Kostritsa, born in 2003;
- Konstantin Pavlovich Kozlov, born in 1999.

Now, my faithful followers, you have clearly seen one of the methods of the Ukrainian InfoPsyOps Center. They filmed hundreds of fake videos with these prisoners. And how many more of our prisoners are used as slaves for such activities in violation of all conventions?

This publication was prepared with the support of one of the officers of the 72nd InfoPsyOps Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, who accidentally gave us access to his smartphone. In addition to this situation, there was a lot of interesting things on the smartphone. Perhaps, after studying the materials, I will show you everything. Except for the prohibited goods, of course.

https://t.me/JokerDPR/1339 - zinc

And below, there are photos of the InfoPsyOps Center reports on the active measures to throw these staged videos into the Russian segment of the network. With statistical indicators and distribution channels.

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(Other images, Russian text, at link.)

All content is from the end of 2024 and the first half of 2025. That is, fresh stuff.
Apparently, Joker hacked the CIPSO databases again and is posting the inside information. I wonder what else leaked out.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9948396.html

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The UN has consistently kept silent...
July 10, 18:51

"Guterres and his subordinates regularly pick up and disseminate lies fabricated by the Kiev regime and Western capitals and aimed at discrediting Russia.

At the same time, the UN consistently keeps silent about Kiev's violations of international humanitarian law or, at best, limits itself to calls for both sides to exercise restraint, which violates Article 100 of the UN Charter on the principles of impartiality" (c) MFA of the Russian Federation

The UN in its current form is part of the outgoing world order, where international institutions serve the interests of a narrow group of countries, primarily the United States, which is clearly seen in the case of the OSCE, ECHR, ICC, OPCW, IAEA, UN and others. Now they are used by the West to maintain its hegemony in the context of advancing multipolarity. Therefore, there will be no "objectivity" and "life according to the truth" there. Hoping for this would be the height of political naivety.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9948051.html

Strikes on Kyiv. 10.07.2025
July 10, 14:57

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Footage of the night strikes on Kiev and the aftermath. The Artem plant, Korolev Meridian OJSC, Analitpribor, Kuznets na Rybalskom, the National Aviation University and the SBU Academy were particularly hard hit.
The enemy's air defenses worked rather sluggishly, unable to cope with the growing flow of Geraniums.

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(Other images at link.)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9947478.html

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – July 9th, 2025
Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 09, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "As a result of rocket artillery fire support, motorized rifle troops of the 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (East Group of Forces) breached defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and liberated the settlement of Tolstoy in the Donetsk People's Republic.”

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 30.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 30th, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 1st, 2025.

The Russian Armed Forces continue dismantling a large, well-organized defensive zone of the AFU in the interfluve of four rivers. Judging by the speed of clearing operations, they are advancing confidently with full tactical initiative.

After securing the right bank of the Mokrye Yaly River, our forces began expanding the bridgehead on the west bank. Following the liberation of Podubnoye and Tolstoy, of the villages in the Volchya-Mokrye Yaly interfluve (north of Komar), only Myrnoe (K. Marx), Iskra, Zeleny Gai, and Novokhatskoye (not on the map, it is just north of Tolstoy) remain under AFU control. The former defensive advantage of these strongholds—river-covered flanks—has now become their weakness, as these waterways hinder both defensive maneuvers and the AFU's ability to rotate, reinforce, or retreat.

This sector marks the boundary between the Center and East Army Groups' operational zones. With the destruction of this defensive hub, Center's left flank can advance northward to support units pushing from Novonikolaevka toward Muravka and Novopavlovka. This would allow them to consolidate positions along the Solenaya River, reinforcing the western axis of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction.

Meanwhile, East Group forces—anchored by this secured area—will advance on a broad front toward the state border along the Iskra-Aleksandrovgrad-Temirovka line.

Another difficult and dangerous mission, executed with growing success by our battle-hardened troops, who are gaining invaluable combat experience!

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... y-9th-2025

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Iskander strikes reported on Ukrainian Armed Forces facilities in Odessa region

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After a massive night attack on the Ukrainian Armed Forces infrastructure deep in the rear, Russian military personnel continued to carry out pinpoint strikes on identified enemy targets on Ukrainian territory.

Thus, according to reports from Russian near-war publics, the strikes rockets "Iskander" were delivered to targets in Odessa region. Around 13.00:XNUMX Moscow time, explosions were heard in the wider area near Odessa and in Zatoka. There was also mention of a strike near the village of Tuzly in Belgorod-Dnestrovsky district of Odessa region.

It is not reported which specific objects of the Kyiv regime were hit by the Iskanders. At the same time, the strike on Zatoka is confirmed by Ukrainian publics. Local residents write about a powerful explosion and a column of smoke rising from the landing site.

Let us recall that during today's night attack, the Russian Armed Forces hit a number of targets in Western Ukraine. According to a report from the Russian Defense Ministry, the Kinzhal missiles were used to precisely strike enemy airfields.

There were also reports of multiple hits to the Motor plant in Lutsk, which repairs rocket engines.

It is worth noting that in recent months, the Russian military has been systematically increasing the number of strikes on Kyiv regime targets throughout Ukraine. Against this backdrop, the American administration, which promised to achieve a diplomatic solution to the conflict, has promised new arms supplies to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including anti-aircraft missiles for missile defense systems.

https://en.topwar.ru/267761-soobschaets ... lasti.html

Google Translator

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(This is a Ukrainian site...)

ImageMaryana Bezugla

A blow to the TCC: what’s wrong with the acquisition system
08 July 2025, 13:33Read also in Russian

How Russia hits TCC and SP i zagalom

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– So, on one side there are large-scale information and psychological warfare operations (IPSO), which involve physical aggression in order to weaken the mobilization process.

– On the other hand, the reaction of the population is so wide, often friendly to Russian thematic IPSO not only through the Russians, but through those who TCC and SP did not undertake to reform, withdraw from the ground forces, clean up, take away the non-powerful functions, stop beating people and decide to systematically handle the pranks and corruption in the middle of these monsters of the army system - PEOPLE HAVE NO TRUST IN THE INSTITUTION.

– The great military commander Gorbach is Sirsky’s right-hand man and the head personnel officer of the ZSU, and Sirsky himself has defrauded the Ground Forces for five years and is especially guilty of this. How can you not get rid of yourself?

– It is also necessary to understand that the cruel, soviet, thoughtless, indiscriminate and corrupted spirit has been developed, covering basic needs in the presence of alternative systemic solutions, but having drawn on its ideological, an organizational and ethical resource, which has turned into a booster conveyor for purging SPS and the consumption of state funds with a minimal coefficient of rinsing action.

A small butt of stupidity and nonsense that plagues the TCC and SP system - this is the message from the Vinnytsia TCC, which stated that through Russian attacks it is slowing down its activity, and immediately published new addresses I will accept the giants. What did you change? Fly to the new location at the old address? Ale is not all.

After that, as they were directly pointed out for their stupidity, no one knew the mercy, and I quote:

“Three years ago, on the official website of the Vinnytsia Regional TCC and JV, a document was published on the functioning of the territorial center for staffing and social support behind a legal address. Information, placed in a new place, was preserved as an inheritance from a third party."...

“At the moment, it is officially announced that the address of the reception of the citizens previously indicated by social media and media, the Vinnytsia OTC and the joint venture will not cost a hundred cents.”

The President won’t take up the task... I don’t know what else Volodymyr Oleksandrovich can do?

ARMY REFORM SYSTEM IS NEEDED, not okozamilyuvannya!

https://regionews.ua/ukr/blog/marianna- ... g_rewarded

Google Translator

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(This author must have been asleep for the last four years...)

How to Start World War III: Ukraine Joins NATO
Andrew Latham
ByAndrew LathamPublished23 hours ago

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F-15 Fighter from US Air ForceA F-15 Strike Eagle, assigned to the 4th Fighter Wing, approaches a KC-135 Stratotanker, assigned to the 6th Air Refueling Wing, for refueling over the southeastern United States, Aug. 29, 2024. A multi-mission avionics system sets the F-15 apart from other fighter aircraft. It includes a head-up display, advanced radar, inertial navigation system, flight instruments, ultrahigh frequency communications, tactical navigation system and instrument landing system. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Lauren Cobin)

Key Points and Summary – Ukraine joining NATO would be viewed by Russia as an existential threat, likely triggering a severe and multifaceted military escalation that could lead to a broader European war.

-The Kremlin has consistently framed NATO’s eastward expansion as the primary justification for its aggression, meaning Kyiv’s accession would be a direct challenge to Russia’s perceived sphere of influence.

-While the West has a moral imperative to support Ukraine, a formal invitation to join the alliance must be carefully weighed against the very real risk of provoking a wider, more catastrophic conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia.

What if Ukraine Joins NATO? It Could Mean War
As the geopolitical landscape continues to shift, a pressing question emerges: What would happen if Ukraine were to join NATO, particularly if a Democrat occupies the White House and Washington formally backs Kyiv’s membership?


The Ukraine Question and NATO
The implications of such a move are profound, especially given the historical context of Russia’s aggression. One must anticipate a vehement response from Moscow, as the very reason Russia invaded Ukraine in the first place was to prevent NATO’s eastward expansion. Thus, the idea of Ukraine becoming a NATO member is not merely a diplomatic maneuver; it is a direct challenge to Russia’s sphere of influence and a potential catalyst for further conflict.

The Kremlin has long viewed NATO as a threat, a military alliance that encroaches upon its borders and undermines its authority in the region. Vladimir Putin’s narrative has consistently framed NATO expansion as an existential threat to Russia, a sentiment that resonates deeply within the Russian political landscape. The invasion of Ukraine in 2014 was, in many ways, a preemptive strike against what Moscow perceived as an encroaching Western influence.

The annexation of Crimea and the support for separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine were not just acts of aggression; they were calculated moves to reassert Russia’s dominance and to send a clear message: any attempt to integrate Ukraine into Western institutions would be met with severe consequences.

If the United States were to endorse Ukraine’s NATO membership, it would signal a dramatic shift in the West’s approach to Russia. Such a decision would not only solidify Ukraine’s alignment with the West but also represent a fundamental challenge to Russia’s strategic interests. The Kremlin would likely interpret this as a direct threat, prompting a range of aggressive responses. We should expect a multifaceted reaction from Moscow, including increased military posturing along its western borders, heightened cyber warfare, and potentially even direct military engagement in Ukraine.

Moreover, Russia’s historical playbook suggests that it would not shy away from using force to achieve its objectives. The Kremlin has demonstrated a willingness to escalate conflicts when it perceives its interests are at stake. The ongoing war in Ukraine is a testament to this reality.

If NATO were to extend an invitation to Ukraine, Russia might view this as a declaration of war, leading to a significant escalation in hostilities. The potential for a broader conflict in Eastern Europe would become alarmingly real, as Russia could mobilize its military assets in a show of force that would reverberate throughout the region.

However, while there are no legal barriers preventing NATO from admitting a new member state that is currently at war or has disputed borders, historical norms have evolved that would complicate Kyiv’s bid for membership. NATO has traditionally favored stability and security among its members, and admitting a country embroiled in conflict could set a challenging precedent. The alliance has generally sought to ensure that new members are in a position to contribute to collective defense without the immediate threat of conflict. This principle has been a guiding factor in NATO’s enlargement strategy, raising significant questions about the feasibility of Ukraine’s accession while it remains engaged in a war with Russia.

Additionally, the resistance from certain member states, such as Hungary, adds another layer of complexity to Ukraine’s aspirations. Hungary has expressed concerns over various political issues, including its grievances with Ukraine regarding minority rights and historical disputes. This internal dissent within NATO could hinder consensus on Ukraine’s membership, making it even more challenging for Kyiv to secure the necessary support. The combination of evolving norms and the opposition from existing member states creates significant hurdles for Ukraine as it seeks to join the alliance, regardless of the legal framework that technically allows for such an admission.

The implications of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership extend beyond the immediate military response. A NATO-backed Ukraine would likely prompt a reevaluation of security dynamics across Europe. Countries in Eastern Europe, particularly those that share borders with Russia, would find themselves in a precarious position. The specter of Russian aggression would loom larger, leading to increased military spending and a potential arms race in the region. NATO’s collective defense clause, Article 5, would come into play, obligating member states to respond to any aggression against Ukraine. This could draw the United States and its allies into a direct confrontation with Russia, a situation that could spiral out of control with catastrophic consequences.

Furthermore, the economic ramifications of such a shift cannot be overlooked. Russia has already faced significant sanctions due to its actions in Ukraine, but a formal NATO membership for Ukraine would likely lead to even harsher economic measures. The Kremlin would respond by doubling down on its efforts to undermine Western economies, using tools such as energy manipulation and cyberattacks. The potential for economic warfare would escalate, further straining relations between Russia and the West.

Russia Could Get More Aggressive
In this context, it is crucial to consider the broader implications for global security. The world is already grappling with a range of challenges, including climate change and rising authoritarianism. A military confrontation between NATO and Russia over Ukraine would divert attention and resources away from these pressing issues. It would also set a dangerous precedent, signaling to other authoritarian regimes that aggressive actions can yield results. The international order, already fragile, would face further destabilization, with countries reassessing their alliances and security strategies in light of a more aggressive Russia.

So, how should the West navigate this treacherous terrain? While the moral imperative to support Ukraine is undeniable, the strategic calculus must also consider the potential geopolitical consequences of Ukraine’s admission to NATO. A nuanced approach is necessary, one that balances the need for solidarity with Ukraine against the risks of provoking a larger conflict. Diplomatic efforts must be prioritized, seeking to engage Russia in dialogue while simultaneously reinforcing Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

This does not mean abandoning the goal of NATO membership for Ukraine; instead, it calls for a more strategic and measured approach to achieving this goal. The West must be prepared to offer Ukraine robust support—military, economic, and diplomatic—while also exploring avenues for de-escalation with Russia. This could involve confidence-building measures, arms control agreements, and a renewed commitment to dialogue. The goal should be to create a security architecture in Europe that addresses the legitimate concerns of all parties involved, including Russia, while firmly supporting Ukraine’s right to self-determination.

Ukraine in NATO Could Spark a Crisis
In conclusion, the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is fraught with peril, particularly in light of Russia’s historical response to perceived threats. A Democrat-led administration in Washington may be inclined to support Ukraine’s membership, but such a decision must be weighed against the potential for a hostile reaction from Moscow. The stakes are high, and the consequences of miscalculation could be dire. As we navigate this complex landscape, the West must remain steadfast in its support for Ukraine while also pursuing a path that seeks to avoid a catastrophic escalation of conflict.

The future of European security hangs in the balance, and the choices made today will resonate for generations to come.

https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/how ... oins-nato/

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New batch of Su-34s delivered
July 10, 2025
Rybar

The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) has sent Su-34 multirole fighter-bombers to the army under previously concluded contracts. At the same time, UAC plans to further increase the production volumes of combat aircraft.

The aviation component is one of the key and determining factors in the ongoing special operation. It is the air superiority that creates the necessary conditions for ensuring the ground operations of our troops, so the transfer of a new batch is a joyful signal.

However, in the case of combat aviation, we would like to see the modernization of operational-tactical aviation for strikes at strategic depth, the advisability of which has been discussed more than once in recent years.

Our fighters, bombers and attack aircraft are currently limited in combat use : Su-34s can carry Kh-35s, Su-57s use the new Kh-69s. This seriously complicates their use in conditions of dense enemy air defense.

Yes, due to the systemic impact and strikes, as well as the increase in attacks by unmanned vehicles, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are showing a certain degradation in air defense, but still, aircraft cannot fly into a zone that is dangerous for them.

Minor upgrades of even essentially obsolete aircraft like the Su-25 to use cruise missiles (especially now that we have the “Banderol”, which is lighter) would seriously increase the combat power of our aviation.

There are planes, new ones are being built – and this is great. But their use in some moments is limited to a limited range of tasks. In the future, I would like to see work in this direction, as this will not only expand their variability, but also reduce dependence on strategic aviation.

https://rybar.ru/novaya-partiya-su-34-peredana/

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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