Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Jul 22, 2025 11:52 am

The dystopia of war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 07/22/2025

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On Monday, Le Monde reported on one of Ukraine's flagship construction projects, very much in line with the limited possibilities for reconstruction under wartime conditions and the needs of the moment: a large military cemetery. According to the French outlet, the site will have a bunker to protect against possible bombing—although the dead have not been a specific target of Russian troops, as they have been of Israeli troops in Gaza—places to pay tribute to fallen warriors, and more space to bury soldiers now that existing cemeteries are overflowing. Without even minimally realistic data on casualties in either army, the warnings from sympathetic journalists are indicative when they state, as one Ukrainian blogger recently did, that "currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lack infantry. Completely. The infantry has fled, is in the hospital, or in the cemetery." The growth of cemeteries is undoubtedly another important indicator. According to Le Monde , the new facilities will initially house graves, although the number could reach 130,000 or 160,000 in the future, indicating the current very high level of casualties and the possibility that such losses will continue in the future.

However, neither the number of casualties nor the accumulated destruction in the country are sufficient reason to moderate Ukraine's aspirations for what it can achieve through military means or through the use of ultimatums. Hiding behind international law, the defense of the European continent, or the will of the population, Ukraine insists on the obligation to restore the country's territorial integrity according to its 1991 borders. This lacks realism, would have to happen against the opinion of the population in places like Crimea and Donbass, and is a recipe for perpetuating an eternal conflict, whether or not it is at the military level. And despite the possibility that face-to-face talks will resume tomorrow between the delegations led by Vladimir Medinsky and Rustem Umerov, who was dismissed as Ukrainian Defense Minister to be appointed Chairman of the National Defense and Security Council, the likelihood of the conflict shifting from the military to the purely political level remains slim.

In the three and a half years since the February 2022 invasion, neither the progressive escalation nor the increasing use of Western weapons against Russian territory, nor threats and different versions of the same ultimatum have managed to get Russia to give in and surrender to conditions that bear little relation to the reality on the ground and the balance of forces that indicate the strength of the front and the rear. The Ukrainian response is a discourse constantly proclaiming that war is the raison d'être of the Putin regime , which cannot give in, since the absence of war would be the end of the political framework that sustains it. “Russia neither wants nor can, of its own volition, end the hostilities that have become its way of life. The Kremlin has turned war into an effective model of state governance, an ideal tool for controlling internal dynamics. War silences social discontent, distracts from economic failures, and ultimately helps consolidate the regime's grip on power,” wrote Mikhail Podolyak, for example, who in this passage also perfectly describes the Zelensky government's attitude toward war, its use for the accumulation of power and internal control, and the fact that military conflict has become the state's raison d'être.

Two initiatives that have gained media attention are indicative of this trend. “Payment for performance in war. Ukraine introduces gamification in the military [As an economist, I'm pleased. Anyone want to contribute to an article?],” wrote Timofiy Mylovanov, a current academic and former Minister of Economy under Volodymyr Zelensky—one of the many men of military age who advocate continuing to fight but live abroad—on social media on July 14. The former minister was referring to an article published by The Economist in which the British magazine explained that gamification is a “term coined in the early 2000s, and has been used in many fields, from healthcare and customer loyalty programs to education and workplace productivity. Participants are given points; leaderboards, progress bars, levels, and badges often appear. In some cases, points can translate into rewards that go beyond the satisfaction of ‘winning.’”

“Gamification came to drone warfare in August 2024 when the Drone Army, a government-backed initiative to procure drones for the armed forces, launched a ‘bonus’ system,” writes The Economist , adding, coolly despite dealing with matters of life and death, that “drone warfare is ideally suited to gamification because all kills are recorded by the same drone cameras used to fly the aircraft, and a system for recording them already exists.” The flippancy in the use of video game logic applied to warfare is not limited to the now-official media, but comes directly from the authorities who created the system. “The system ensures that the most successful drone operators receive new drones before their less effective counterparts. Now the process is being improved with what Mikhail Fedorov, Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, has dubbed “Amazon for the Army,” a system that allows units to purchase combat equipment with points earned for destroying Russian vehicles and other targets,” the article writes, describing the initiative. The war scenario is presented as a game, although it is also a reflection of rampant capitalism, where everything is for sale and even death can be an object of material gain.

War is not only a privileged setting for putting the techniques of capital into practice, but also opens the door to the militarization of all aspects of life and serves as a testing ground for the weapons of the future. This idea is not new and was one of the key slogans of Oleksiy Reznikov, the minister who in 2020 said of Donbass that "our goal is not to recover it, like an oncological tumor that we don't know what to do with. But we understand that we have two options. These are territories that are also mentally ill. There is the option of complete removal, amputation, or cure. I am in favor of therapy and the restoration of our entire body." The defense minister, who had compared Donbass to a tumor, wrote an article in the Financial Times in 2022 in which he offered the Ukrainian theater of operations as a stage where various companies could test their weapons in combat situations. "We are sharing all the information and experience with our partners," he declared at an Atlantic Council event , where he insisted that "we are interested in testing modern systems in the fight against the enemy, and we invite arms manufacturers to test new products here." "An unbeatable laboratory for the global arms industry," he insisted in 2023, appealing to the initiative of companies and authorities in Kyiv's allied countries.

Now, however, it is no longer just a wish, but an official initiative by the same minister who has introduced war as a video game in which you kill to earn points to redeem in the form of more drones with which to continue killing. “Ukraine has unveiled a new initiative allowing foreign defense companies to test their technologies in real-world battlefield conditions,” announced Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov during an online speech at the LANDEURO defense conference in Wiesbaden, reported the official Ukrainian media outlet United24 last week . With this initiative, Ukraine is simply making official state policy the desire that the authorities have expressed since 2022: that the West take advantage of the Ukrainian military scenario to massively send its current weapons or those it is developing for the future to be tested against Russian weapons in combat situations and collaborate in the common cause of the war against Moscow. This time, the language is not that of video games but the purest advertising message. "Want to test your drones in combat? Ukraine has a platform for that," reads the headline of the article, which, of course, seeks to present the initiative not as an element of proxy warfare or a sign of desperation, but as a measure of kyiv's generosity and altruism.

“Ukraine has already developed a unique infrastructure for the rapid development of defense innovation,” Fedorov insists in the article, failing to acknowledge that Russian innovations are causing far more damage in Ukraine on a daily basis than Ukrainian ones in Russia, despite successes such as Operation Spider Web . “We are ready to help allied countries develop, test, and improve technologies that work in combat. This is an opportunity to gain experience that simply cannot be reproduced in a laboratory,” the minister insists. Ukraine offers assistance to improve its partners’ technologies, a useful euphemism to camouflage the umpteenth plea for even more weapons to sustain a long-term war it cannot win and in which it is willing to offer its territory as a testing ground, its population as a human shield, and its army as a guinea pig against which to test Russia’s response.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/22/la-di ... la-guerra/

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – July 21st, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 21, 2025

Review of the situation in the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) sector of the Donetsk direction and adjacent areas, including the Konstantinovka sector to the northeast and the Dnepropetrovsk sector to the southwest:

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ЛБС 09.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 9th, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

Following the liberation of Belaya Gora village (Belaya Hora on the map), our assault units have redirected their efforts northward toward the AFU defensive zone in the triangle of heights 204.4-196.9-236.9 in the Oskovo nature reserve, which secures the rear of AFU forces trapped in the "pocket." Simultaneously, our assault groups have increased activity near Predtechino village, advancing closer to our positions around Belaya Gora. Let's see whether AFU "specialists" from battalions defending the right bank of the Seversky Donets-Donetsk canal can avoid being encircled...

On the left flank of this sector, significant activity has been observed near Yablonovka, with most areas now under control of our assault groups. Advances have been made along the H-32 highway between Stepanovka and Yablonovka toward Berestok. This movement isolates AFU reinforcements arriving in the Stepanovka area from the Kleban-Byk defensive sector, which now faces imminent operational encirclement - only about two kilometers remain before reaching the H-20 highway.

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

Westward, on the right flank of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) sector, the main Russian effort focuses on Rodinskoye. Our forward assault units have secured positions near Krasny Liman (too small to put on the map, but Ukrainians refer to it as Chervone Liman, which is right next to Rodinskoye) and the ventilation shaft of Krasnolimanskaya mine. Operations are underway to expand this bridgehead toward Sukhetskoye. To secure this advance's flanks, containing attacks are being conducted northward (Mayak-Vladimirovka) and southward (Nikolaevka-Novoeconomicheskoye).

Further west, on the left flank of Pokrovsk direction's Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) sector, movement has resumed near Udachnoe toward Molodetskoye. Eastward, in Pokrovsk's immediate vicinity, advances are being made from Zverevo toward Pervomayskoye. These actions appear designed to draw AFU reserves closer to Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) while securing the right flank of units preparing to advance from Novonikolaevka toward Muravka-Novopavlovka.

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 30.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 30th, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 1st, 2025.

To the south, in the "East" Group's area of operations, our assault units have reached Zeleny Gai while actively advancing along the Alexandrovgrad-Kamyshevakha line. Increased activity has also been noted near Temirovka.

Across the entire operational area, we observe sequentially activated sectors - following patterns known to Russian military command - that systematically fracture AFU defenses. This demonstrates precisely the operational initiative our forces maintain, with the freedom to conduct wide-ranging, proactive operations across extended frontline segments.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -july-21st

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Russia Strikes Ukraine Overnight With Hypersonic Missiles

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Ukrainian facility hit by Russian missiles, July 21, 2025. X/ @LeeGolden6

July 21, 2025 Hour: 9:08 am

Meanwhile, Russia’s air defense intercepted 74 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 23 in the Moscow region.
On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that its forces launched an overnight group strike on Ukraine’s military-industrial complex and the infrastructure of military airfields.

The raid involved long-range high-precision weapons launched from air, land and sea-based platforms, including “Kinzhal” air-launched hypersonic ballistic missiles and combat drones. Meanwhile, Russia’s air defense intercepted 74 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 23 in the Moscow Region.

Airports in Moscow introduced air restrictions in the early hours of Monday for flight safety reasons, which were subsequently lifted, according to Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency.

Downed drone debris caused a fire on the roof of the railway station in the village of Kamenolomni in the Rostov Region, and more than 50 trains were delayed, said Russian Railways.


On Monday, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that the Russian government will allocate nearly US$2.3 billion over the next three years to upgrade border checkpoints across the country,

Speaking during a visit to the Kanikurgan automobile border checkpoint in the Amur Region, Mishustin emphasized that the investment will support the construction, repair and technical re-equipment of border facilities using advanced digital and technological solutions.

“A large-scale effort is underway nationwide to improve cross-border logistics. As part of the current three-year federal budget cycle, we will direct nearly 180 billion rubles to develop and modernize border checkpoints,” he said, adding that more than a quarter of the country’s existing checkpoints are set to be upgraded over the next five years.

“These are priority locations in terms of current and projected trade flows. In the Far Eastern Federal District alone, over 30 checkpoints are scheduled for upgrade,” Mishustin noted.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/russia-s ... -missiles/

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Record Advances for Russia’s Armed Forces in Ukraine While Neo-Nazi Ideology Continues Its Rise in Kiev
July 20, 2025

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Ukrainian regime president Volodymyr Zelensky with masked fighters in the background, a map showing the war frontlines, and a countdown to ceasefire. Illustration: Mahdi Rtail/Al-Mayadeen English.

By Dmitri Kovalevich – Jul 18, 2025

The Russian Armed Forces have accelerated their military advances in early July 2025, placing the Ukrainian Armed Forces under record pressure since the beginning of the NATO proxy war in the country, three and a half years ago. Ukrainian analysts are predicting that the military pressure on the governing regime in Kiev will only increase with each passing month. The Russian army is accelerating territorial advances as new Russian divisions are formed and trained, while the Ukrainian army continues to be depleted.

In response to the deteriorating military situation, the Trump administration in Washington announced on July 14 additional funding and weaponry for the governing regime in Kiev and its military, to be paid for, it says, by the warmongering governments of Europe. But this is only a change of tone, not of policy, and it cannot change the outcome of the US/NATO war against Russia using Ukraine as their proxy.

Ukrainian legislator Oleksandr Dubinsky, jailed since early 2023 for “treason,” notes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces under Zelensky have only known a steady retreat of late. “The comedian [Volodomyr Zelensky, the unelected head of the Kiev regime] lost 559 square kilometers of territory in June. In May, he lost 449 square kilometers. That’s almost 1000 square kilometers. Since the fall of 2022, Ukraine has never achieved a ‘plus’ territorial gain in the war, only retreats and losses,” he writes.

The Ukrainian online publication Politnavigator cites Russian military correspondent Alexander Kots in a report on July 3 as saying that the number of troops on both sides is in rough parity, but there are significant differences in morale. “The quality is completely different, because our troops are in high spirits while the Ukrainians have been forcibly conscripted and are anything but happy,” Kots told a radio broadcast by the Russian tabloid newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda.

“Ceasefire” talk by Kiev regime representatives
Ukraine’s official media continue to broadcast daily that the war will last for years to come. Ukrainian ultra-nationalists try to cheer up Ukrainian soldiers and convince them to fight on with constant references in their broadcasts to some kind of “black swan” event (a rare and unpredictable occurrence with profound impacts and consequences) that will miraculously rescue the deteriorating military/political situation. But when facing Western audiences, Zelensky has been projecting a different message, talking of “ceasefire” with Russia (presumably to please Donald Trump and his pre-July 14 talk).

Trump continues to be presented by corporate and state media in the West as sincerely desirous of “peace” between Russia and Ukraine. Even alternative media is playing that game, despite the continued news reporting exactly the opposite.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Heorhiy Tykhiy, said on July 6 that Ukraine would participate in ceasefire talks with Russia strictly to prevent critics in the West, particularly those opposing continued financial and military support, from accusing Kiev of rejecting peace initiatives.

A “Georgia” outcome in Ukraine?
In May 2025, JPMorganChase financial analysts predicted a ceasefire by July 2025, with the most likely scenario being along the lines of the truce in Georgia, which followed the brief war there in 2008. According to this scenario, Ukraine after the war would not receive reliable security guarantees from the West, would remain unstable, and eventually, after one or two changes of government, would fall into Russia’s sphere of influence. Although Georgia is not a country friendly to Russia, the West considers it so because of the persistent refusal by the government there to consider launching a second suicidal conflict with Russia.

In 2008, the then-government of Georgia launched a military attack against the disputed region of South Ossetia, which was seeking full autonomy from Georgia or outright joining of the Russian Federation. Russia came to the defense of the region and quickly defeated the Georgian army. South Ossetia is today a sovereign state recognized by Russia, with a population of some 60,000.

The Western analysts are wrong. “The Georgian scenario is optimal for everyone,” commented Yevgeny Minchenko on the JPMorgan report, as reported by Strana.ua on July 1. He is one of the most prominent political scientists in Russia, said to be close to the Kremlin.

Strana writes in its July 1 report that the Georgia outcome is entirely feasible, provided that the economic elites and armed forces leaders conclude that in order to save the statehood and nation of Georgia from self-inflicted destruction caused by threats and provocations against Russia, it is necessary to compromise and make peace. In addition to the aspirations of Ukraine and Russia for such a scenario, Strana emphasizes, it also requires the absence of active resistance from the West.

West wants continued war, is willing to enlist neo-Nazis to fight it
Ukraine is being pushed to continue to wage war for the Western countries. A suicidal prolongation of military action by Ukraine provides an opportunity for Western governments to browbeat their own populations and lower their social standards and expectations while continuing to launder billions of dollars from the funds supposedly dedicated to purchasing weapons from the Western military-industrial complexes.

The survival of neo-Nazism in Germany was nurtured by Western capitalists following World War II in order to combat a declared “red menace” emanating from the Soviet Union and its constituent republics. Beginning in the 1980s and accelerating after the demise of the Soviet Union, the Western powers began to expand their NATO military alliance eastward. Part of this strategy was to dehumanize entire peoples, above all the Russian people (who were the largest component by land area and population of the Soviet Union). Today in Ukraine, the West continues to pursue this same strategy. Although Russia explains that the goal of its special military operation in Ukraine includes denazification, the Western media simply refuse to report this, still less to explain it. It refuses to even acknowledge the presence (and ascendance since 2014) of neo-Nazi ideology in Ukraine.

Also ignored has been the military and political training and arming that the US government and military have provided to the neo-Nazi movement in Ukraine, even if some circles in the US would recognize this movement as a threat to the United States itself. Konstantin Nemichev of the neo-Nazi ‘Azov’ movement in Ukraine, today an officer in the main military intelligence service of Ukraine, boasted recently that Azov has received training from US instructors since 2014. An officer in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine confirmed this in a July 1 interview in a Ukrainian news outlet, as reported on Telegram by Politnavigator.

Nemichev explained, “It was the summer [of 2014] and we took a two-week course for willing, young fighters-to-be. Before that, I had never even held a machine gun, now we had US special commandos training us. They taught us some skills and tactics, and we were trained by Alpha officers [US special commandos]. After that, we went to Donbass and put our new-found skills to work in such urban centers as Ilovaisk, Pavlopol and Shirokino (in the Donetsk republic, Donbass region). We had a lot of operations there and we gained experience that would become vital beginning in February 2022. A lot of operations in which we, first of all, gained the experience that we needed in 2022…. NATO officers, Americans, taught us staff culture and management, and this was very much needed.”

Azov emerged amid the coup in 2014 as a shock force to suppress Ukrainians holding on to the country’s Soviet legacy. Until 2024, it was considered by the US government to be an extremist group, but that all changed in the middle of that year.

In an interview for Ukrainska Pravda, as reported on Telegram by Politnavigator on July 1, the same Nemichev stated he is in favor of continuing the war with Russia, although he admits that more and more cities will have to be lost before conditions improve for the Ukrainian side. “I understand that if we sign some absurdity (ceasefire) now and make a pause—and I’m talking exactly for a pause, similar to the ‘pause’ of 2016 to 2022—then we will lose the cities and regions of Kharkiv, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhya. We will fight for three more years and perhaps lose Cherkasy, Kyiv and other cities and regions in central Ukraine. We must realize that is our destiny; our destiny is to fight.”

Another neo-Nazi leader, Yevhen Karas of the C-14 paramilitary group (recently involved in violence against Roma people), spoke on Ukrainian television about how to capture and return to the frontlines Ukrainian men who have escaped or evaded military service. He, too, works for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s main intelligence service. He sees the task of Ukrainian nationalists as fighting for a “common Ukrainian-European cause,” including in Africa. That is, he considers Ukrainian ultra-nationalists to play the role of assistant colonizers of the “white man.”

“How do we return Ukrainians who have gone abroad? Let’s make a deal. We will go to fight for common Ukrainian-European interests in Africa, while the drones of military recruiters will be permitted to fly over Europe to catch evaders and send them back to us.” This scenario is not so far-fetched, as European countries may soon be deporting Ukrainians back home, where a dispatching to the frontlines will await. EU citizens will eventually face the same fate; it is not for nothing that some European countries are already introducing forms of compulsory military service (conscription), including even, in some cases, for women. For the West, this is an existential issue of survival and hegemony of their capitalist system, which has been shaken by their losing war effort in Ukraine and by the rising resistance and rebellion of the peoples and countries of the Global South.

Neo-Nazi ideology running wild at the highest levels
The biggest scandal of all in Ukraine of late is the appointment of Oleksandr Alferov to be the new director of the renowned (for Ukrainian ultra-nationalists) Ukrainian Institute of National Memory and a former press secretary of the neo-Nazi Azov. According to Ukrainian journalist Oleksandr Savko, Alferov was once known among ultra-nationalists as favoring the creation of a Ukrainian kingdom headed by an autocrat-monarch, ruling over the country with the help of a newly created and appointed class of nobles.

In his first interview in his new post, Alferov states that Adolf Hitler was a cultured, decent, educated man who cannot be judged according to the same standards as political figures from Russia. “How can you compare a man [Hitler] who received a German education, was an artist, and was brought up amidst the philosophy and the high culture of Germany to these other people? No way. These are two different kinds of people cannot be compared.” In his view, Russians do not compare with the law-abiding, highly moral Germans of the Third Reich.

Alferov considers today’s inhabitants of the Russian Federation to be “Oriental savages” who are even worse than the Orcs from Tolkien’s books. He publicly refers to Russians as “goblins.”

“Hatred for everything Asian and Russian has long been a chip of this odious parvenu with complexes of a ‘true Aryan’,” writes the journalist Savko.

Alferov is formally considered by Ukrainian authorities to be a historian. Since 2010, he has worked as a researcher at the once-prestigious Institute of Ukrainian History of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. He is evidently unaware that Hitler had no higher education and was refused admission to the Vienna School of Art. Alferov’s own ancestors and so many other Ukrainians were murdered and exterminated in their millions by the “highly cultured” German people of the 1930s and 1940s, led by Hitler. According to Nazi ideology, Alferov’s ancestors were considered slaves, nothing more.

Zelensky’s former associate and former legislator, Oleksandr Dubinskyy, emphasizes that the Institute of National Memory under Alferov and his like-minded predecessor defines the current ideology of the Ukrainian state. The Institute was established in 2008 by the then-president Viktor Yuschenko (leader of the 2004-05 Orange Revolution, favoring Ukraine joining the European Union). Its heads were moderate nationalists until the Euromaidan coup of 2013/14, after which its appointed heads were ultra-nationalists favoring supportive of the WW2-era history of collaboration with Nazism. The new head takes that one step further in being an outright fan of Hitler.

Ukrainian political advisors are advising Zelensky of late to stop talking about “freedom” and “democracy,” as part of a strategy to “tame” Trump, because trends are changing quickly. Olga Koshelenko, special correspondent in the United States for the Ukrainian TV channel TSN, is urging, “The strategy saying that we Ukrainians are defending freedom and democracy in Europe and around the world is not working with the Trump administration. Indeed, they are annoyed by this messaging of ours! We need to change the messaging and the approach. Our theme is a worn one used by the Democrats before Trump, positing a ‘good’ West fighting against an ‘evil’ Russia. But this whole frame just falls flat today. Worse, it pisses the Trump people off! Just stop talking this way!” Her words indicate that even before Trump’s second arrival, talk of Ukraine supposedly “defending freedom and democracy” was just empty rhetoric falling flat.

Russia’s statements about denazification as one of the goals of its special military operation were not accidental. The fact is that tolerance and even promotion of neo-Nazism in Ukraine is part of a long-term policy by the Western imperialist powers to preserve and strengthen the dominance of a “white Europe.” Ukrainian officials are no longer embarrassed to say it out loud.

(Al-Mayadeen English)

https://orinocotribune.com/record-advan ... e-in-kiev/

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad

Results of strikes on critical defense-industrial infrastructure — on the night of July 20-21, 2025

During a large-scale air operation, Russian troops launched a series of strikes on key military-industrial complex facilities and weapons storage bases. The main emphasis was on Kiev, Kharkov and Ivano-Frankivsk , where operating military-industrial complex enterprises and NSU units were hit.

— Kharkov ( 01:40 )
Seven strike UAVs launched a series of hits on the territory of the Kharkov Aggregate Machine-Building Plant "FED" . As a result, a three-story administrative building was destroyed and burned out (fire area — 500 m² ), reserve barrels of aviation fuel (250 m²) were destroyed, and a low-pressure gas pipeline was damaged .

Strategic importance : the plant is one of the key Ukrainian enterprises for the production of fuel supply control units, pumps and drives for aircraft engines .

— Kiev ( 01:50–03:50 )
As a result of a massive strike, at least twenty Geran-2 attack UAVs hit two critically important enterprises of the Ukrainian defense industry complex , which are part of the Ukroboronprom State Concern .

▪️"Kiev Radio Plant"
The strikes hit the production area, including precision electronics buildings, laboratory modules, and the administrative and research center , located in a 7-story building. A large-scale fire broke out on the roof of the latter, engulfing utility lines, ventilation systems, and air conditioning units. The fire quickly spread to the upper floors, where, according to available data, hardware and software control units for air defense and radio communications were located .

Industrial significance : the radio plant is one of the main manufacturers in Ukraine of phased array antenna units, guidance control modules, telemetry, large-scale integrated circuits, and microassembly elements for anti-aircraft missile systems, electronic warfare, and aviation electronics.

▪️State Design Bureau "Artem"
According to the received data, the territory of the State Kyiv Design Bureau "Artem" - one of the largest Ukrainian manufacturers of medium-range guided missiles, aerial bombs, launch units and guidance systems - was also hit .
At least two production shops were damaged , including the final assembly line for R-27 and R-73 missiles used on MiG-29 aircraft , as well as a section for preparing ballistic stabilizers and pyrotechnic fuses.

Technical significance : Design Bureau "Artem" plays a central role in the implementation of the program for the restoration and modification of the missile fleet of the Ukrainian Armed Forces , including adaptation to Western suspension modules and interfaces.

- Ivano-Frankivsk ( 03:10 )
UAVs hit the area of ​​an underground weapons depot on the territory of the military unit of the 20th regiment of the National Guard of Ukraine . A vibration shock was recorded , without detonation of warehouses, however, the shock wave damaged window units in the internal security building .

- Glevakha ( 04:00 )
UAV strikes were carried out on the territory of the Scientific and Engineering Center for Explosive Metalworking .
Confirmed:
• Destruction of a warehouse building;
• Secondary detonation in the storage area of directional charges used in the production of projectile elements. The facility is directly related to the modernization programs for NATO-standard
fuses and ballistic casings . - Kiev The air defense work carried out in dense urban development led to an ordinary cascade of secondary destruction.



▪️Darnitsky district :
• Polubotka st., 28 — fragments hit the roof of a five-story residential building, fire on the top floor.
• Dovbusha st., 35 — fire on the territory of a woodworking enterprise.
▪️Dneprovsky district :
• Malishka street, 3 — fire in shopping pavilions.
▪️Shevchenkivskyi district :
• metro station "Lukyanovskaya" - the entrance group and the dome structure are damaged.

@don_partizan

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Colonelcassad
The Russian Armed Forces have begun to form a "fire balcony" from Kupyansk to Volchansk.

After the temporary stabilization of the front line, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reduce the mobility of reserves, while the Russian Federation, on the contrary, deploys reinforced, fresh maneuver groups.

The Ukrainian side has recorded the advance of the Russian Federation both in Volchansk itself and in the areas of Volchanskiye Khutors, Staritsa, and the village of Degtyarnoye. Judging by the radio intercepts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian Federation in these areas is trying to close the fire control zone between Volchansk and Kupyansk, reducing the operational pocket and leveling the line of contact. At the same time, the fire control zone is being saturated with both drones and long-range weapons like the Krasnopoly, which proved themselves well during the first approach to Volchansk, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to transfer reserves.
As a result, a kind of "fire balcony" is formed, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot fail to defend, and defense is associated with a colossal risk of losing almost any equipment capable of movement.

Against the background of these and other successes of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkov direction, a trend is beginning to emerge to form an operational roll along the entire line of defense between Volchansk and Kupyansk.
And Volchansk in this regard will be just one of the episodes. "Military Chronicle "

***

Colonelcassad
About sanctions

The European Union recently introduced the 18th package of anti-Russian sanctions , and the US Congress has prepared or is still preparing the sanctions "Graham-Blumenthal bill" .

It has long been unclear what goals those in Brussels and Washington are pursuing who are engaged in sanctions policy .
Either they want to hit the Russian economy, or the economies of Russia's partner countries.
Or they want to "deprive it of the opportunity to finance the war in Ukraine", or "force it to negotiate", or simply "punish" Russia for its independence.
Or they want to infringe on the interests of Russian economic operators, or decision-makers, or provoke a popular uprising.

Statements by officials, parliamentarians and politicians are accumulating like a snowball , often contradicting each other .

For the sake of a thought experiment, let's go back to the moment in time when everything more or less began .
Here are selected quotes from American and European officials in 2014, explaining why and for what purpose anti-Russian sanctions were being introduced “for the annexation of Crimea”:

Sanctions are not punitive measures but are intended to change the policies or actions of the target country, organisations or individuals. Measures always target the policy or activity, the means by which it is implemented and the persons responsible for it. The EU makes every effort to minimise the negative impact on civilians and on legitimate activities. ( Official statement of the Council of the EU , Brussels , 29 April 2014)
So, as you know, we have focused on individual sanctions against those who are involved in either the development or implementation of policies – in particular, the seizure of Crimea and aggression in the east. The US has also expanded this list to include those who finance and support the president and his staff – that is, people close to him. Now the talk is that if the elections are disrupted or we see further movement of Russian troops into Ukraine, we will have to move to so-called “surgical sectoral sanctions.” ( Victoria Nuland, US Under Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, at a briefing in Luxembourg, May 13, 2014)
The goal of the United States is not to harm the Russian people , but to change the course of the Russian leadership toward Ukraine. (Victoria Nuland, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Congressional hearing, May 8, 2014)


🧩 So, the original purpose of the sanctions, according to their initiators, was to force Russia to change its foreign policy , primarily in the Ukrainian direction.
The result is zero or the opposite of what was intended.
But this does not prevent the Americans and Europeans from ignoring reality and continuing to believe that if they press even harder, Russia will break and change course.

It is not our business to believe in this.
The consequences will obviously be completely different.

However, the West's persistence in pursuing a sanctions policy must be taken into account.
Today, forecasts that the maximum possible set of unilateral restrictive measures will be introduced against Russia , meaning a complete severance of direct trade and economic ties with the Western community,

do not seem out of touch with reality. Also, one cannot neglect the possibility that in pursuit of the illusory goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia on the Ukrainian battlefield, sooner or later the West will use all types of weapons available to it against our country , with the exception of non-conventional ones .

@alexey_drobinin

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

200,000 done. And another 1,000,000 on the way
July 21, 22:44

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The report about the production of "Geraniums" in Tatarstan made a lot of noise. I was lucky enough to visit there when everything was just getting going and they were assembling up to 25-30 drones a day, not hundreds like now. This was probably the most vivid impression of the development of the domestic military-industrial complex. The management of the FEZ did a colossal job, pushing through and implementing this project, which turned a simple clone of the Iranian "Shahed" into a permanent problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO in Ukraine.

(Video at link.)

Of course, the enemy tried to disrupt the deployment of production in Tatarstan, because it continues to scale. There have already been drone strikes and even a couple of flights to the territory of Alabuga (one flew into a dormitory with foreign students). But this, of course, did not stop the production of "Geraniums". Now the production has increased many times. At the same time, both the quantity and quality are growing, and the strategy and tactics of their use are improving.

One can only dream that in our country large and medium quadcopters are produced at the same rate.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9969108.html

Negotiations in Istanbul. Expectations
July 22, 11:00

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Regarding the announced negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.

1. They will agree on new prisoner exchanges.
2. They will agree on a new transfer of corpses of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers to Ukraine.
3. No meeting between Putin and Zelensky will be agreed upon.
4. A single agreed memorandum is not expected.
5. The war will not end in the 50 days announced by Trump.
6. There will be another round of negotiations in August. And then in September, etc.

Such are the expectations.
But if ours are still exchanged, then in any case there is some benefit from it. Well, and the corpses of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers need to be put somewhere.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9969553.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Jul 23, 2025 11:37 am

"Point of no return"
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 07/23/2025

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Last weekend, legendary investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, who rose to prominence by exposing the US massacre of Vietnamese civilians in the town of Mi Lai, published a new article on Ukraine suggesting that the US considers Zelensky to be written off and is seeking to replace him with Valery Zaluzhny. Ukraine's current ambassador to the UK remains the most popular figure in polls despite being increasingly criticized for viewing the war from a distance, for his role in the disastrous 2023 ground counteroffensive that ultimately cost him his job, and for images such as a social media post highlighting his suffering with an image of himself running in the gym while soldiers die in the trenches. The wave of support for the heroic president, dressed in green, who was greeted by crowds around the world, waned with the weakening of Ukraine's situation on the front lines and the fatigue caused by the economic conditions of the war among the population. The priority remains acquiring more weapons and mobilizing, even by force, more men. But the deterioration of the president's image, whose popularity only temporarily recovered after the humiliation in the Oval Office, since nothing unites like the feeling of aggression, has never recovered the ground lost in voting intentions to Zaluzhny.

Hersh's article, overly blunt considering the circumstances, comes at a time when, despite the certainty that his sources on the Ukrainian issue have been questionable in the past—Hersh even said that Poland, one of the most belligerent and anti-Russian countries in Europe, was demanding that Ukraine reach a ceasefire with Russia—the journalist's credibility is once again on the rise. The US attack on Iran occurred exactly as the journalist had written just hours earlier, demonstrating that he has reliable sources within the current White House administration. Countering Hersh's argument of US fatigue and a desire to get rid of its main interlocutor in Ukraine is Donald Trump's evident change in attitude toward him. The US president has gone from openly criticizing his Ukrainian counterpart, whom he subjected to public ridicule broadcast live on television around the world, to affirming that he is a good president, the best Ukraine could have under current conditions. Trump's ultimatum is no longer directed at Ukraine, but at Russia, and the US is far from willing to disengage from the Ukrainian issue. It has become clear that, subject to payment from European NATO countries, the White House is willing to become even more involved by increasing the flow of military aid to continue fighting on the front lines. Hence, reports of an attempt to replace the president sound, to say the least, exaggerated.

Hersh's article coincides with the government crisis forced by Zelensky and his team to replace Prime Minister Shmygal with Yulia Svyrydenko, whose relationship with the United States is notably closer than that of her predecessor and also than that of her former boss in the President's Office, Andriy Ermak. Shmygal has not been removed, but appointed Minister of Defense, a position that manages one of the most important issues for Ukraine, the flow of arms, but less political than that of Chairman of the National Security and Defense Council, now held by another Zelensky loyalist, former minister Rustem Umerov, who also heads the Ukrainian delegation in the talks with Russia (Umerov will be attending the third round of direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine today). The government changes sought two clear objectives: to foster economic-military relations with the United States and to close ranks by concentrating power in the inner circle of Zelensky and Ermak. The current leadership's attempt to maximally control power, extending not only to the executive branch but also to the legislative branch, can be understood as a sign of strength in the absence of an opposition capable of preventing Zelensky's dictatorial tendencies, or, conversely, as an attempt to maintain control in the face of potential internal weakness or loss of external support.

The questioning of Zelensky as the undisputed leader at this time, when despite criticism there is not even talk of the possibility of holding elections, an idea initially raised by Trumpism but which has fallen into oblivion, is not limited to Seymour Hersh's articles; there are several recent examples of articles denouncing the authoritarian drift of the current government. "Volodymyr Zelensky accused of authoritarian decline after anti-corruption raids. Politicians, activists, and diplomats accuse the Ukrainian leader of favoring loyalists and using war powers against his critics," writes the Financial Times this month, for example . Added to this negative coverage in the Western media are the critical articles against Andriy Ermak, Zelensky's right-hand man.

The accusations are not limited to Western media, but extend to a segment of the Ukrainian media, specifically those most closely aligned with Western discourse and liberal media outlets that have relied on US funding over the past decade and have in several cases relied on donations to compensate for the loss of USAID funding when it was announced by Marco Rubio.

“While waging a war for survival against Russia, Ukraine must not become its authoritarian neighbor,” charged The Kyiv Independent on July 14 , always using any resemblance to Russia as the ultimate insult. “As Ukraine’s leading independent English-language media outlet,” it continued, “we have a duty to recognize and denounce this threat. A series of recent events indicate that Ukraine’s leaders are increasingly circumventing democratic institutions and sabotaging the rule of law. The most prominent of these developments is the criminal investigation against Ukraine’s best-known anti-corruption activist, Vitaliy Shabunin.”

Along the same lines, Ukrainska Pravda , the quintessential pro-Western liberal outlet, reported the same week that "Ukraine must remain a democracy, even during war. Otherwise, we risk losing not only territory, but also our identity and the very purpose of our common struggle all these years: to build a European country, not become a shadow of Russia or Belarus." The argument used to reach this common conclusion is also the same: the dispute between the government and NABU, the anti-corruption agency created at the behest of Western partners during the Poroshenko era.

“While Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernishov, who has been officially accused by NABU of causing multimillion-dollar losses to the state, remains in office and was even included as a speaker at the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Rome, Vitaly Shabunin, a military officer and volunteer since the first days of Russia's full-scale invasion, is being prosecuted. And the way it is being done leaves no room for doubt: Shabunin is being persecuted not for what is written in the charges, but for what he does professionally,” writes Ukrainska Pravda , adding that “we do not deny that all citizens of Ukraine must be held accountable before the law. But justice is also based on context, consistency, and equality before the law. The fact that one of NABU's prime suspects remains in public office, while an anti-corruption activist and army volunteer becomes a target of public discredit, does not reflect the rule of law. It signals politically motivated repression.”

The confrontation reached its peak yesterday, when Zelensky's team ushered in a vote in the Verkhovna Rada, with an absolute majority of what remains of the Servant of the People and purged of any non-nationalist opposition. "The point of no return" had been crossed, headlined The Kyiv Independent last night. "A complete disaster. This will only fuel those in Europe who believe that helping Ukraine is pointless, not to mention the whole Russian narrative that Ukrainians are simply stealing Western aid for their own private enrichment—a narrative we have been fighting against for years," commented former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, a frequent propagandist for this common war against Russia, without hiding his despair or his ulterior motives.

“It’s no exaggeration to say that Ukrainian public opinion is in a frenzy following Parliament’s approval today of a law that essentially dismantles independent anti-corruption agencies just days after the SBU raided key investigators,” wrote Wall Street Journal journalist Yaroslav Trofimov. Explaining that Zelensky had allied himself with Yulia Tymoschenko’s deputies and those who were not stripped of their seats by decree and were part of the “ pro-Russian Opposition Platform for Life,” the party of the banished Medvedchuk, Marta Havryshko stated that “from now on, these anti-corruption bodies will report directly to the Prosecutor General. And guess who appoints the Prosecutor General? That’s right: Zelensky himself.” The Ukrainian historian accompanied her message with an image of the current president in the guise of Napoleon from one of her films. However, the game is not over, and as Trofimov insisted, “the law will not come into force until Zelensky signs it, and there is enormous pressure in Ukraine and the European Union for him not to do so.”

In the afternoon, the European Union, the same one that didn't care that Ukraine had denied pensions and social benefits to the population of Donbass for seven years, stated that it viewed the events "with concern" and recalled that the anti-corruption commitment is "crucial" to the country's chances of joining the bloc, a veiled threat that Zelensky's team will have to take into account in its crusade for political and economic control of the country. "These institutions are fundamental to Ukraine's reform program and must function independently to fight corruption and maintain public trust," declared Guillaume Mercier, spokesperson for the European Commission, who subtly reminded Ukraine that "the EU provides significant financial assistance to Ukraine, conditional on progress in transparency, judicial reform, and democratic governance."

The confrontation between Zelensky, with his small power group, and the liberal establishment linked to foreign NGOs and, in the past, to the US Embassy and organizations like USAID is not new. As Peter Korotaev described last year, “ The New York Times echoed this news in early January 2024, publishing its own critique of Zelensky's media machine. An unflattering critique, especially for a president for whom the mediatization of his image is of utmost importance.” This powerful social faction, well-funded and capable of placing its message in the international media, also targeted “Zelensky in many other areas: they supported Zaluzhny, criticized his military strategy, constantly uncovered new forms of military corruption, and, since 2022, published almost weekly revelations about government figures occupied on “the Monaco front” or “the Vienna front,” Korotaev explained. And regarding the case currently being highlighted by the media to criticize Zelensky, he explained that “Vitaly Shabunin’s National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption even accused the docile and loyal Prime Minister Shmyhal of 131 acts of corruption on January 10, 2024, threatening him with a fine of up to 302,000 hryvnias unless an investigation revealed his innocence.”

In line with the usual pattern in Ukraine, critics insist on the Russian nature of the government's mafia-like actions, while Zelensky's entourage defends itself by also appealing to the neighboring country. "The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Monday carried out a series of raids on the country's National Anti-Corruption Bureau as part of a broad investigation into alleged collusion with Russian spies. The SBU alleges that one of the anti-corruption agency's top investigators, Ruslan Magamedrasulov, and another elite officer from the bureau were working as Russian spies. Both were detained," Politico reported on Monday, reflecting the official Ukrainian government narrative. In the end, as almost always in Ukraine, the confrontation comes down to presenting the facts based on who is most similar to Russia. Once again, as in the 2019 elections, Zelensky is facing opposition from sectors close to Svoboda's ideology, such as the network led by Serhiy Sternenko, while Biletsky's entourage supports his position. It is significant that, despite the anti-corruption agency having always been seen as an agency exercising external control over Ukraine, figures such as Maksym Zhoryn, deputy head of the Third Assault Brigade and a prominent member of Biletsky's party, wrote on social media several days ago that NABU "works for the Russians." Yesterday, when the protests had already begun, in his daily address to the nation, Zelensky stated that "the anti-corruption institutions will work. But without Russian influence, all of that must be cleaned up. And there will be more justice."

By suppressing parliament and the opposition and assuring the population of Western support, Zelensky has managed, since the Russian invasion in February 2022, to centralize power in a few loyal hands. Neither the weak situation of the first few weeks, nor the war of attrition with mass desertions and population flight, nor even the humiliation before Donald Trump have managed to shake the president, who now faces his most difficult challenge, as the fight against the anti-corruption agency involves not only an internal confrontation but also the involvement of such important partners as the European Union.

"Almost all Ukrainian-flagged accounts [on social media] are denouncing Zelensky as if they've always known and warned us, instead of glorifying him and vilifying his critics. Why now?" Not because Zelensky destroyed Ukraine (no one really cares), but because Zelensky destroyed the local satraps of the United States and the EU," commented American journalist Mark Ames yesterday. "Zelensky has betrayed Ukrainian democracy and all those who fight for it," headlined The Kyiv Independent this morning. For Zelensky, against whom the first demonstrations have already taken place in different cities across the country, this dispute may prove more dangerous than Donald Trump's opinion of him, the way the negotiations are going, or the state of the soldiers on the front line. In the coming hours, Zelensky will have to choose between clinging to a control that even his allies understand is excessive or trying to cover up the weakness that comes with having to back down, between the temptation to accuse those who criticize him of playing into Russia's hands and justifying himself on the basis of democracy to withdraw a measure whose main problem is that it is not liked by those who finance the maintenance of the state from foreign institutions.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/23/punto-de-no-retorno/

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******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
0:26
Kharkov, wait: Northerners strike at policemen

We present footage of objective control : in the camera of our drone the Russian city of Kharkov, the liberation of which the Russian people are so waiting for.

Many Kharkov residents were forced to leave their home city, many are now fighting in the Russian Army. Thousands of Kharkov residents are hiding from the TCC man-catchers and the punitive detachments of the SBU....

Local residents informed us in the feedback bot that policemen from the Industrial Department, together with the TCC "man-catchers", beat up men of retirement age and are especially zealous in catching "cannon fodder" for the assault units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

We checked this information both through pro-Russian activists in Kharkov and for money from the corrupt policemen themselves from other departments. The information was confirmed and our strike drone "came to visit" the police department. This was only a warning...

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – July 22nd, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 22, 2025
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Units of the "Center" Group have liberated the settlement of Novotoretskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic through decisive operations."

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The village of Novotoretskoye (48°24′12″N 37°19′33″E, approximately 500 residents) is situated on the right bank of the Kazenny Torets River. The entire right bank sector from Mayak to Grodovka is now under the control of Russian Armed Forces. Three bridgeheads have been established on the left bank: near Mayak village, Razino village, and Grodovka.

The central bridgehead in the Razino area is expanding wedge-like toward Rodinskoye, with its flanks secured near Mayak (right flank) and Nikolaevka (left flank). Both flanks remain active - the right flank maintains pressure on enemy defenses in the Mayak-Novoye Shakhovo direction, while the left flank advances toward Novoeconomicheskoe, effectively tying down enemy forces and preventing them from gaining operational initiative.

Ukrainian forces are reportedly preparing a secondary defensive line anchored on the Novoye Shakhovo-Rodinskoye-Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) railway.

The spearhead of the Rodinskoye wedge continues expanding northwest toward Sukhetskoye village, where Russian forces are preparing a staging area for further operations. This development sets conditions for enveloping Rodinskoye from the north and advancing toward Belitskoye, which would effectively sever Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) from Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Notably, Ukrainian authorities appear to be preparing to downgrade Pokrovsk's status as a "strategically important area."

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -july-22nd

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Grave Nation: Ukrainian Cemetery Mega-Project Reveals Dimming Military Hopes
Simplicius
Jul 22, 2025
A new Le Monde article sends spider cracks through the facade of Ukrainian losses:

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https://www.lemonde.fr/international/ar ... _3210.html

Right off the bat, they reveal that cemeteries throughout Ukraine are full, requiring a national project of building a large-scale network of new military burial sites:

The squares reserved for the soldiers are full. Everywhere, teams of architects are working on memorials that tell us as much about the scale of the slaughter as they do about the ongoing reflection on the idea of nationhood.

They visit one of the first under construction, which already has a main square of plots for 10,000, eventually to be expanded to 160,000 graves:

In the village, only a brand-new brown sign, the color reserved for national sites, currently marks the road leading the trucks to the construction site. It reads: “National Military Memorial Cemetery”. A first square of 10,000 graves, already partially dotted with wide, light-colored granite paths lined with benches and lime trees, will welcome the first “heroes” this summer. Eventually, however, “130,000 or even 160,000” deceased will be laid to rest on this future mortuary site, explains architect Serhi Derbin, wearing khaki linen pants and a straw panama, in the bright Saturday sunshine of July.

Rightly, the Le Monde staff turn to the issue of “official” Ukrainian casualty statistics. In a growing Western trend, they admit that the number of dead is likely “much higher” than Zelensky gives credit for. Of course, pro-UA zealots will ignore the fact that there is no such project in Russia, no inordinately exceptional outgrowth of military cemeteries anywhere. They’ll make excuses, pointing to the cliche of “Russia’s size” as somehow ‘concealing’ such markers of losses, ignoring that Ukraine itself is the largest country in Europe and remains oddly unable to ‘conceal losses’ in the same way.

In the same circles, there are increased talks of Ukrainian collapse by end of year. Le Figaro’s new article making the rounds offers such a prediction. The writers spoke to French military officers who believe the situation is turning dire:

A French military source:

Moscow's “thousand cuts” strategy is intensifying. The front is not set in stone. Offensives are localized in a multitude of small battles fought over a few kilometers. The cuts are getting deeper, even though the Ukrainian army is already weakened. It is stretched over a front of more than 1,000 km. Lacking sufficiently frequent replacements and human resources, the units are becoming exhausted.

“The Russians are multiplying offensive sectors to disperse enemy reserves,” explains a French military source. Russia has deployed nearly 700,000 soldiers in Ukraine, more than the Ukrainian army. Patiently, it continues to nibble away at territory, at the cost of colossal human losses: up to a hundred dead a day; some 40,000 casualties (dead and wounded) a month. The Russian army has adapted its tactics, preferring to launch assaults with small infantry units or units mounted on motorcycles, in order to advance faster and more lightly.


They slip in the usual sop about the “costs” Russia is incurring, but then critically add:

But the army, the Ukrainian, it also lost some of the material she had received from Western for the past three years. Time plays against it with the risk of a break in a part of the front. "Forces of Ukraine are in [dire straits]... Can they last six months? A year? In reality, the war is already lost", continued in the military source. In this war of attrition, the time changes everything.

And in another even more erudite offering, Figaro interviews French historian Stéphane Audoin-Rouzeau, who is particularly a leading expert on the First World War.

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https://archive.ph/ea6n5

Utilizing his expertise on the Great War, he makes some fascinating parallels to the current Ukrainian conflict that are worth a deeper look.

First, he notes that in his opinion the Ukrainian war is only the third war of its particular type in recent history—the type being ‘siege warfare, but in the open country’:

You note another similarity between the First World War and the Ukraine, as both were wars of position...

There are few historical examples of this very recent form of warfare, as it requires armaments that only became available at the end of the 19th century. Structurally, it is siege warfare, but fought in open country over hundreds of kilometers. There have only been three conflicts of this type: the Great War (from late 1914 to spring 1918, not beyond); the Iran-Iraq war (from 1980 to 1988); the Ukraine war (from April 2022, not before).


He goes on to draw further parallels:

What are the invariants of such a war?

The main point is the superiority of the defensive over the offensive. Had this not been the case, Ukraine would have been beaten long ago. Already during the First World War, it was necessary to cross a “no man's land” saturated with barbed wire, one of the most effective weapons of the early 20th century. Then there were the minefields we saw in Iran-Iraq and now in Ukraine. They are an extraordinarily compact barrier. The Ukrainians came up against it in the summer of 2023 during their failed counter-offensive, and the Russians since 2024. As a result, it's impossible to break through dozens of kilometers wide and break the enemy's front line.[/i]

He notes that due to these peculiarities, there is a kind of obligatory “regression” in each conflict, where previous means are no longer workable:

There is a kind of regression in all three conflicts. In Ukraine, helicopters and airplanes fly very little above and beyond the front line. Nor are there any major armored offensives. We've never seen anything like the Battle of Kursk in 1943. As a result, the battle is heavily infantry-based.

And at the same time, firepower...

Yes, that's another invariant of this type of warfare. Initially, this firepower was linked to artillery, with the cannon dominating the battlefield during the First World War. This overwhelming dominance of the cannon can be seen again in Ukraine, until 2024. Unfortunately, Russia has always had very good artillery and, unlike the Ukrainians, has had the means to supply it, where the latter ran out of ammunition well into 2024.


But the point in setting the stage above, is that by analyzing these parallels, this preeminent historian has reached a final decisive conclusion: that Ukraine has already lost the war:

It was by considering these invariants that you came to a radical conclusion, set out at a Senate hearing in April: in your view, Ukraine has already lost the war...

Indeed, as we speak, Ukraine unfortunately seems to have lost the war, probably as early as the summer of 2023, when it became clear that its long-awaited counter-offensive had failed. One could imagine a spectacular turnaround, but it's not clear how. Of course, when you say this, people are shocked because it's unbearable to think that Ukraine has lost the war. It's unbearable for me too.


He adds to the list of peculiarities of the war the fact that even Ukraine’s now-certain loss is not overtly visible:

But here's the thing: there's no point in remaining incantatory, we have to get out of a new denial, that of defeat, after that of the possibility of war itself. For I would add another characteristic of the war of position: defeat is not immediately discernible when it looms. It takes a long time to appear. It's not like Stalingrad, where the vanquished leave the battlefield and the victor occupies it. It's not like the blitzkrieg of May-June 1940. In a war of position, it's two bodies in battle, slowly wearing each other down. Only in the end does it become clear that one has worn out faster than the other.

He hits the nail on the head, but likely in a way even he doesn’t fully understand—or at least not in a way he’s ready to admit. You see, the reason such a shroud of occlusion wears heavy over the outcome of the war is because the West has done their utmost in hiding Ukrainian losses. His final pithy admonition that only in the end does it become clear who lost the war of attrition inadvertently bears testament to this: only those of us who truly care about facts and uncovering the truth—not dogmatic reasoning and propaganda—are able to demystify the more-than-obvious signals that Ukraine is taking ungodly and unsustainable losses comparative to Russia.

He goes on to demonstrate his cause with an example:

Was that the case in 1918?

Let's do a little thought experiment. Let's imagine that in early October 1918, a group of military experts, journalists and historians were gathered in a neutral country to ask their opinion on the situation. And now suppose someone had then suggested that Germany had already lost the war. Well, everyone would have cried out! At that time, the Reich was still occupying immense territories in the east at the expense of Russia, since the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. It occupied the whole of Belgium and large parts of France. It's true that the German army has been retreating since the summer, but nowhere has the front given way. The Germans are inflicting heavy losses on the Allies, since it is the Allies who are on the offensive and therefore taking the greatest risks. So where is the German defeat?

In reality, German defeat has been certain since July-August 1918. It has happened, but it is not yet apparent. Since the summer, the German General Staff has been well aware of this, and has called for negotiations to be launched. Except that the political powers don't understand it, nor does German public opinion, and never will. This failure to understand the defeat of 1918 was one of the reasons for the rise of Nazism.


The interviewer lightly pushes back, stating that the Ukrainians are not yet visibly collapsing despite Russia’s slow-moving gains:

Here again, let's think back to the First World War. When the Allies launched their counter-offensive in July 1918, it was a general one, but apart from the Americans, the soldiers were no longer capable of attacking. They were so used to throwing themselves on the ground at the first danger that everyone was extremely cautious. But we could have imagined that part of the front would be breached, in which case... Germany had no more reserves to plug the holes. That's why I'm worried about the risk of a Russian offensive in Ukraine this summer: given the disproportion of forces, could it break through the front? We would then be entering a different configuration, as any break in the front would risk producing a powerful moral effect on the Ukrainian armed forces, on political power and on public opinion.

He concludes by stating that the right question is no longer whether Ukraine has lost—which is rhetorical at this point—but how far Ukraine will lose:

The right question is not whether Ukraine has lost the war - that seems all too obvious to me - but how far it will lose it. On the basis of the current balance of power, or on that of an even more unfavorable balance of power? This will determine whether or not the Ukrainian defeat represents a strategic victory for Russia.

On that note, Russia again launched one of the largest attacks of the war last night—at least according to frenetic Ukrainian commentators who, admittedly, could be playing things up for dramatic effect to curry sympathy:

Image

There has been a surge of such attacks the last few weeks, particularly ones targeting Ukrainian recruitment centers operated by the notorious TCK (Territorial Recruitment Center). Farsighted Ukrainian officials have ‘brilliantly’ concluded this is a Russian effort to cripple Ukraine’s ability to round up meat for Zelensky’s conveyor belt of horror.

Likewise, Russian strikes have been completely erasing Ukrainian weapons industries. Many people watch the endless parade of explosions in a detached manner—at this point it has become passé to the point that people assume these strikes do little, or are just carrying out some vague ‘background work’. In reality, they have been neutering Ukrainian industries, halting many of the farfetched Ukrainian weapons ambitions which were at one point widely talked about.

For instance, a recent hit was said to have destroyed the Grom-2 production line, a big Ukrainian ballistic missile that was meant to be their answer to Russia’s Iskander. There’s a reason you don’t see much of the weaponry constantly talked about and billed as the next “wunderwaffen”: it’s because these ongoing, systematic Russian strikes are wiping out their industries, leaving Ukraine with no ability to produce anything other than small quadcopter drones in tiny boutique workshops which can be hidden anywhere. The larger facilities which were meant to produce more prestige-level systems, from mobile artillery, to various analogues of Russian air-to-ground and ballistic missiles, to artillery shell production lines, etc., have all been extirpated by these relentless systematic strikes.

More and more, top Ukrainian figures are panicking over this and concluding that if it continues on this way, Ukraine will have nothing left. Listen to the Ukrainian officer below, who states that “at this rate, Ukraine will be returned to the stone age”:

‼️🇺🇦The chair under Zelensky is starting to shake more and more. After all, allowing such statements on the air of pro-Kyiv media was previously unimaginable👍

➖Apparently, the recent report about the production of Geran-2 drones and their quantity, along with massive attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure, really forced the top officials of Zelensky's office to activate the "brown" alert.

➖Because the Ukrainian deputies who still have some brain left understand that with the current state of affairs in Ukraine, the country will soon cease to exist. All the Ukrainian "partners" who were verbally ready to fight for Zelensky's regime have now completely "frozen" and don't even want to contribute money. Support is dwindling, and stealing is becoming difficult. The people fully realize that Zelensky will shout about VICTORY from his bunker or Europe until he is hoarse, while Ukrainians rejoice at the Geran-2 strikes on the TCC.


(Video at link.)

He’s referring in particular to the new videos showcasing Russia’s Geran (Shahed) drone production at the Alabuga factory in Tatarstan where hundreds of the drones are produced each day around the clock: (Video at link.)

The full episode where the above excerpt is from, which deals with many other drone types being used in the Russian Army, can be viewed here.

One of the reasons, by the way, that the French historian, Stéphane Audoin-Rouzeau, saw Russia winning the war despite parallels to ‘stalemated’ conflicts like the Iran-Iraq war, is because in previous examples he believes the industrial capacities and general capabilities of the combatants were likewise roughly static. But in the case of the Russo-Ukrainian war, he admits that Russian capabilities are growing each year, far out-pacing Ukrainian ones. This goes toward things like the previously-talked-about manpower gains of 100k per year—while Ukraine’s manpower shrinks—as well as the industrial growth of the arms industry.

That being said, there’s one last important point to be made. Many point to Russia’s “growing economic problems” as a counter-argument for why Russia could begin “losing” in the future, despite its seeming present dominance. I even saw one Western publication spin Putin’s announcement that Russia would be reducing its military budget next year as an “act of desperation” which means Russian military capability is finally “weakening”.

On the contrary, the signals here are the complete opposite: Putin’s plan to begin slowly reining in Russia’s military spending is the acknowledgement that Russia has finally reached a total equilibrium in the war, where current production levels are stable and sustainable indefinitely in relation to the losses. That means further inordinate military expansion is unnecessary, and Russia sees a successful path in defeating Ukraine at current levels.

This is obviously in conjunction with the fact that Russia has now attritioned the AFU to such an extent that it no longer requires the same disparity levels in military spending—as Ukrainian capabilities shrink, Russia likewise settles its war-making into a manageable level by taking things from overdrive to simply ‘autopilot’—if the analogy makes sense. Once again, dogmatic Western analysts incapable of impartial reasoning fail to pick up on this obvious cue, which totally spoils their analyses.

Here’s someone that gets it, though:

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(More at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/gra ... etery-mega

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Why Does Seymour Hersh Never Question His Government Sources?
July 20, 2025

In the past, I’ve criticized Seymour Hersh’s reporting relating to Russia and the Russia-Ukraine war as I’ve noticed that his understanding of Russia seems to be reliant upon his government sources and establishment writers who are the intellectual fellow travelers of Fiona Hill.

I have to say I don’t understand why such a respected and seasoned investigative journalist who covered the worst of the Vietnam and Iraq wars shows no discernment or inclination to question some of the nonsense he’s being fed by his sources.

As a recent cross-post by Simplicius made clear, the high numbers of Russian casualties being bandied about by US/Western government officials and establishment media are not credible when subjected to a modicum of scrutiny. But this shouldn’t be a surprise to those who remember that it was admitted at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war that they considered this an information war and that US government officials would be promulgating stories and information that made Ukraine and the west look good and Russia bad – with the implication that the information would not always be accurate or truthful. Did Hersh forget that admission from 2022?

I don’t deny that there are analysts and commentators who are clearly sympathetic to Russia and put out stories and commentary about how Russia is 20 feet tall and is going to defeat Ukraine next week. I won’t mention any names. I’m interested in those who are attempting to report a reasonable approximation of the truth to the extent that is possible during a proxy war between superpowers who both have motivations and purveyors of biased narratives.

On to some relevant excerpts from Hersh’s article from this past week:

…Zaluzhnyi is now seen as the most credible successor to Zelensky. I have been told by knowledgeable officials in Washington that that job could be his within a few months. Zelensky is on a short list for exile, if President Donald Trump decides to make the call. If Zelensky refuses to leave his office, as is most likely, an involved US official told me: “He’s going to go by force. The ball is in his court.” There are many in Washington and in Ukraine who believe that the escalating air war with Russia must end soon, while there’s still a chance to make a settlement with its president, Vladimir Putin….

…I have been provided with new Russian casualty numbers, from carefully evaluated US and British intelligence estimates, that show that Russia has suffered two million casualties—nearly double the current public numbers—since Putin started the war in early 2022. “Putin is not afraid of losing power, but he is losing popularity,” the US official said, “and Donald Trump is Zelensky’s supplier and the only one who can keep the Ukraine war going. Who’s got real power? It isn’t Zelensky. His only lifeline is the US. Trump is asking, ‘How do we get the pissants to stop? He thinks he’s the only one who can make the deal.

“The message to Putin is you can still say you won” if Zelensky is replaced.

The Russian combat losses are seen in Washington, I was told, as key to a renewed urge to get new leadership in Ukraine in order to begin serious negotiations to end the war, given Putin’s contempt for Zelensky and the possibility of escalation. The losses were at an all-time low of twenty per month last fall, as Putin waited for the results of the US election. “When Trump won,” I was told, the Russian leadership organized a spring offensive “to capture as much territory as possible” before another round of expected peace talks with Ukraine started.

The results were dismal. The offensive has only progressed 120 miles beyond the areas Russia already controlled in Ukraine. That gain, amid high casualties, was of minimal importance, I was told: “all farmland, no fortified towns or critical communication sites. The monthly casualties have been 380 a month through May. The total now is two million. Most importantly,” the official stressed, “was how this number was described. All the best trained regular Army troops, to be replaced by ignorant peasants. All the best mid-grade officers and NCOs dead. All modern armor and fighting vehicles. Junk. This is unsustainable.”


For more comparative context, here is what Russia Matters – a project that relies on western establishment media and commentators – had to say about Russia’s recent advances in Ukraine:

“In the battle for Ukraine, the front line is increasingly at a standstill,” The Wall Street Journal reported on July 13.1 Four days later this newspaper described the situation on the frontline as a “slowdown.” But is it? According to RM’s latest Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, the week preceding July 16 saw Russian forces gain 61 square miles of Ukrainian land, which is triple the rate of the previous week.Moreover, if one compares the monthly rate of change in territorial control in June 2025 (the latest month for which full monthly data is available) with the average monthly rate of change in such control in the five preceding months of this year (Period 1) and in the 18 months (year and a half) that had preceded June 2025 (Period 2), then one sees that the June 2025 rate was considerably higher than the average rate during either of these two periods, regardless of which organization’s data was used to make the calculations (U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War or an online resource that reportedly relies on data from Ukraine-based DeepState, which is affiliated with the Ukrainian MoD). Moreover, the June 2025 rate of advance was higher than that of May 2025 (see Table 2). Thus, it is perhaps not accurate to portray the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian front as “increasingly at a standstill.” [much less a dismal result as Hersh states – Natylie]

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/07/why ... t-sources/

(With this Seymour Hersh has officially jumped the shark.)

Kit Klarenberg: NSC advisors urged ‘ISIS’-style drone attacks on Russian rail, leaked files show
July 21, 2025
By Kit Klarenberg, The Grayzone, 6/23/25

A coterie of British and American academics advising the US National Security Council explicitly urged Ukraine adopt the tactics of ISIS in a detailed proposal for “anti-rail drone operations,” according to leaked documents reviewed by The Grayzone.

The aggressive war plans recommended in the files eerily foreshadowed Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web, which consisted of a series of brazen drone attacks waged inside Russia between May 24 and June 1 – the eve of scheduled negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. A pair of Ukrainian bombings of Russian trains in Bryansk on May 31 and Kursk and the following day left seven dead, and injured more than 30 people, including two children.

The attacks on Russian rail infrastructure have continued since the launch of Operation Spiderweb, suggesting the British-born strategy has heavily influenced the thinking of Kiev’s increasingly desperate military.

The leaked plans reviewed by The Grayzone explore the use of “inexpensive drones” as “a low-cost means for disrupting Russian logistics,” but also include blueprints for terror attacks composed by three “drone experts” before being passed to the Biden administration’s then-Director for Russia at the National Council, Col. Tim Wright.

Those experts belonged to a secret academic-intelligence cell called Project Alchemy, whose existence was first exposed by The Grayzone, and which was founded with a mission to “to keep Ukraine fighting” by imposing “strategic dilemmas, costs and frictions upon Russia.”

As previously reported here, Project Alchemy researchers called “to take a page from ISIS’ playbook,” presenting the jihadist group’s psychological operations as a model for Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians. The Grayzone can now reveal that Alchemy’s team also urged US war planners to look to the Islamic State for inspiration in using commercial drones for attacks on Russian civilian targets.

One academic advising the Alchemy cell, Zachary Kallenborn of George Mason University, recommended Ukraine carry out “two-stage attacks like ISIS did frequently” on Russian-held railways, suggesting that Kiev first “break the track, and wait for the engineers to come to fix it, then use the drone to kill them.” In other words: double tap kamikaze drone strikes.

“Drones also could provide ISR [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] in finding and tracking trains to support larger actions,” with satellite imagery exploited for targeting purposes, Kallenborn added.

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An unnamed Durham University researcher consulted by the NSC declared that “ISIS showed in their battles against the Iraqi military” that drones could be “modified via a simple drop mechanism… to serve as effective munitions delivery platforms.” The conversion of everyday commercial drones into munitions-bearing killing machines would prove one of the most deadly tactics of the war for both sides.

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The origin of Kiev’s ‘drone swarm’ offensives?
During a meeting between military historians from Kansas State University and faculty from the Command and General Staff School at Ft. Leavenworth, academic war planners discussed “the idea of using inexpensive drones to prevent Russia from using captured Ukrainian railroads to resupply their combat units.” The academics then delivered the proposal to “three drone experts in the Ukraine Working Group who each provided their analysis for how to achieve this.”

A separate leaked document describes the Working Group as a vast collection of “strategic studies, military technology and Eastern Europe regional studies experts” who “came together to analyze the Russian invasion of Ukraine and to think deeply about policy options” which could “assist Ukraine’s defense (short of deploying combat forces).” The Working Group was composed of “approximately 60 experts hailing from states throughout NATO.”

The operations file begins by noting that, “when operating in its own territory,” the Russian army “relies on its well-developed rail system which is integrated with Ukraine’s domestic rail network.” As Russian forces moved deeper into Ukraine, the Working Group forecasted that they would “increasingly need to rely on Ukraine’s rail system or face logistic-induced paralysis as their lines of supply lengthen and their road-based logistical become increasingly inefficient.”

“The question should therefore be posed as to whether inexpensive drones can be used to hinder Russian efforts to use those portions of Ukraine’s railway network they have captured,” the document stated. An academic using the initials “M.E.D.” who hailed from Britain’s prestigious Durham University declared, “if Ukrainian forces could sustain attacks on occupied railroads, they could hamper Russian forces’ ability to operate deeper inside of Ukraine.”

While believing it “unlikely that drone attacks, even kamikaze attacks, could bring down bridges” – although this “would be ideal” – they suggested “commercial drones could be modified with a sufficient explosive to inflict meaningful damage of railroads, it would greatly complicate Russian efforts.” After all, “even a small amount of damage would force rail traffic to stop until repairs could be made to the line.”

These attacks “could be carried out away from major stations likely to have active air defenses,” and “augment attacks by stay-behind guerrilla forces.” M.E.D. cited a July 2018 paper on Islamic State’s “innovative” use of drones published by the West Point military academy’s “combating terrorism center” as a reference point for such tactics. It discussed “creative ways” ISIS had deployed “simple, low-cost, and replaceable devices” to devastating effect against its adversaries, which could be replicated by the US and its allies.

M.E.D. postulated that “if larger drones could be procured, of if light commercial aircraft could be modified to fly as drones, they might be able to damage rail bridges enough to force substantive repairs, which would greatly slow rail traffic” – a proposal which closely resembles the June 1 attacks on rail bridges in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions. “Another possibility” was “to use a number of commercial drones in a swarm attack” comparable to Ansar Allah’s September 2019 strikes on Aramco sites in Saudi Arabia, “wherein a number of thermite munitions are used to weaken steel or concrete infrastructure.”

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“Even if the rail bridges are not destroyed outright weakening key areas – perhaps through the use of suicide drones striking them directly after triggering their payload – would necessitate close inspection and hinder the ability to use the bridges safely,” M.E.D. concluded. Throughout the proxy war, Ukraine has regularly deployed drone swarms against Russian targets, in some cases inflicting significant damage.

“Track switches would probably be good targets too”
Another “drone expert” consulted by the St. Andrews cabal was Dominika Kunertove, formerly of Swiss university ETH Zurich’s Center for Security Studies. Kunertove currently serves as director of “a research project on future drone warfare and technology” at the Atlantic Council, the semi-official, arms-industry funded think tank of NATO in Washington DC.

Kunertove suggested using drones to strike “anything that uses” railroads, rather than railways themselves, as this would mean “neither side would be able to use railroads for some time (in case [Ukraine] recaptures…territory previously held by Russians.” This June, Kiev destroyed a military supply train carrying heavy armor, including tanks and artillery systems in an effort dubbed Operation Spiderweb 2.0.

Meanwhile, Zachary Kallenborn, a self-described “war doctor in training” from George Mason University’s Schar School, noted the “limited payloads” offered by commercial drones, with “only a few pounds” of explosive able to be attached to them, meant “the best bet would be to hit sensitive, difficult to repair targets to maximize harm.” While admitting to “not know too much about rail infrastructure,” he suggested “switching yards, engine houses, or the equipment to load and unload trains” as prospective targets.

“Track switches would probably be good targets too,” Kallenborn said, as “a hit would disrupt multiple lines and…would be tougher to repair.” He went on to advocate “[thinking] about how drones can support broader anti-rail operations.” While “slowing” operations intended were “definitely good,” Kallenborn believed it would be “be more useful to use drones” to target “supply trains themselves,” echoing Dominika Kunertove’s suggestions.

Kallenborn specifically highlighted five commercial drone models which could be outfitted with explosives and sent to disrupt rail operations, including the $2,200 DJI Mavic III, which Ukrainian forces used in their attack on a Russian fuel train this May 24.

“All of these would need to be modified to allow carrying and dropping of any munitions, which will increase the cost,” Kallenborn wrote. But “depending on model, there may be secondary suppliers who can help with that,” he noted.

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Still, Kallenborn appeared to express some cynicism about the utility of drones. He urged the National Security Council to “consider the opportunity cost of drones vs other approaches.” He speculated there were “probably a lot of tracks… in relatively isolated areas where planting explosives by hand might be plausible and might be better timed to fix a train.”

That task that could be handily carried out by secret Operation Gladio-style “stay-behind guerrilla forces” which other British academics proposed standing up as part of a proposal to strike “sensitive, difficult to repair targets to maximize harm” in Russian territory.

In the face of constant Russian battlefield gains and a looming reduction in Washington’s military aid to Ukraine, the British government remains committed to spending vast sums on ensuring Kiev has a vast supply of drones at its disposal at all times.

As Ukraine places drone attacks on Russian infrastructure at the heart of its increasingly desperate strategy, Project Alchemy’s ISIS-inspired plans are more relevant than ever.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/07/kit ... iles-show/

******

The first "Mirage" has gone
July 23, 8:33

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Ukraine lost its first French Mirage 2000 aircraft.

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https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9970491.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Jul 23, 2025 3:48 pm

(It's a 'doubler' today, a backlog of Ukraine related items.)

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Chalices of the Lie: Noble Myths and the Poison of Denial

The West still chants of victory, but the frontlines say otherwise. Ukraine's fate, like Finland’s before it, may hinge not on courage—but on timing, truth, and who dares break the Noble Lie's spell.
Kevin Batcho
Jul 21, 2025

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Russian drone strikes in Kiev

Despite the grim-faced EU photo ops and stern communiqués demanding Russia accept an unconditional ceasefire—and President Trump’s self-proclaimed power to enforce a 50-day halt backed only by wishful tariff threats—there is not merely no Western path to victory in Ukraine, but no end to the war in sight. Russia appears in no rush to conclude its so-called Special Military Operation; with each passing month, its position grows stronger, whether for eventual negotiations or, more ominously, for imposing terms on a broken Ukraine. The Russian’s slow, grinding advance through the Donbass continues to drain Western arsenals—limited stocks that, when push comes to shove, will always be prioritized for the golden child of U.S. military aid: Israel.

In a recent report by Seymour Hersh, a curious narrative structure emerges—one that invites analysis through the conceptual lens of Leo Strauss, the German émigré political philosopher whose work explored the role of esoteric writing, deception, and myth in political life. Strauss famously argued that regimes often require noble lies—deliberate falsehoods told by elites to preserve social cohesion or the authority of the state. These are not mere propaganda, but foundational fictions meant to reconcile order with belief.

In this light, Hersh’s reporting reads less like standard investigative journalism and more like a glimpse into a truth carefully managed for mass consumption. His central contention is that elements within the U.S. security establishment are preparing to cast aside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, possibly in favour of General Valery Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief of Ukrainian forces. That premise, in itself, is unsurprising: dissatisfaction with Zelensky’s wartime leadership has surfaced before, and Zaluzhny—battle-tested, blunt, and technocratic—offers a more palatable figure to a Western alliance increasingly attuned to the limits of its investment and the perils of strategic overreach.

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This portion of Hersh’s article rests on firm ground. Zelensky has spent three years performing a postmodern pastiche of Winston Churchill—rallying liberal sentiment, framing the conflict in moral absolutes, and basking in the adulation of Western parliaments. Yet the result has been a steady erosion of territory, the exposure of NATO’s industrial limits, and the creeping disillusionment of his sponsors. Now, belatedly, it appears to be dawning on Western strategists that their man in Kiev may need to channel not Churchill but Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim—the Finnish field marshal who, recognizing the futility of continued resistance, negotiated an honourable peace with Joseph Stalin after Finland’s defeat in the Winter War of 1939–40.

Three years ago, in an interview with The Economist, General Valery Zaluzhny offered a cryptic comment, heavy with implication—one that slipped past most readers, obscured by the unfamiliar historical referent and the coded gravity of the message:

“It is not yet time to appeal to Ukrainian soldiers in the way that Mannerheim appealed to Finnish soldiers. We can and should take a lot more territory.”

To decode this statement is to return to the origins of the Soviet-Finnish Winter War, where myth and military necessity collided—and where, ultimately, myth gave way.

A Winter’s War
The war began not from ideological antipathy, but from geostrategic logic. With the Nazi-Soviet Pact temporarily securing Stalin’s western frontier, attention turned to the vulnerability of Leningrad, less than thirty kilometres from the Finnish border. The Soviet leadership, anticipating future German aggression, sought territorial adjustments along the Karelian Isthmus and control of key islands in the Gulf of Finland. In exchange, Finland was offered larger tracts of Soviet land elsewhere. It was a rational, if unpalatable, demand—not imperialist rapacity, but prophylactic realpolitik.

Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim, head of the Finnish Defense Forces, understood the imbalance of power. Finland’s military was ill-prepared for sustained war against the Red Army. He urged accommodation—a bitter compromise, but one grounded in sober appraisal. Helsinki’s liberal parliamentarians thought otherwise. Possessed by an inflated belief in Western support and a sentimentalized vision of national sovereignty, they rejected Stalin’s terms. War ensued. Mannerheim, though opposed to the policy, was tasked with executing it.

The conflict soon gave rise to a mythology that has endured in Western memory: of a noble David resisting a brutal Goliath. There is some truth to this. Finnish resistance was inventive and brave. Lightly armed ski troops harassed Soviet columns through the Karelian snows; the Mannerheim Line held longer than expected. But material asymmetry was implacable. The Red Army adapted. By late February, they had breached the line. The road to Helsinki stood open.

It was at this critical juncture that Mannerheim returned to his original counsel. Facing encirclement and national collapse, he urged negotiation. This time, the government listened. Stalin, aware of the strategic cost of continued occupation and perhaps chastened by earlier battlefield humiliations, imposed terms only marginally harsher than his original offer. Finland lost valuable territory and industry, but retained its independence and regime. The Soviet Union secured its buffer zone. Both sides stepped back from annihilation.

At the war’s end, Mannerheim addressed his soldiers—not in triumph, but in truth. His message was one of dignity salvaged through realism:

“Peace has been concluded between our country and the Soviet Union, an exacting peace which has ceded to Russia nearly every battlefield on which you have shed your blood… You did not want war… Yet, in spite of all bravery and spirit of sacrifice, the Government has been compelled to conclude peace… Your heroic deeds have aroused the admiration of the world.”

The deeper lesson of the Winter War is not the moral nobility of the Finnish cause, but the calculated discipline of a retreat that preserved the nation. Finland survived not because it prevailed, but because it knew when to stop—forcing its adversary to settle while retaining enough of its own sovereignty to fight another day. It was not myth but moderation that saved it.

This was the implied threat in Zaluzhny’s comments, that he would not fight to the last Ukrainian, as Western war hawks insist, but once outside support wavered, Kiev would cut its losses and make their deal with Putin.

Today, for those in the West still capable of privileging unwelcome truths over consoling illusions—those who have not imbibed the noble lie as sacrament—Finland’s outcome stands as the most realistic model left for Ukraine. Survival, not triumph; statehood preserved through strategic concession, not territorial maximalism. And only a figure like Zaluzhny, armoured in battlefield legitimacy and unburdened by the theatrical imperatives of wartime mythmaking, possesses the authority to execute such a pivot.

In this light, Seymour Hersh’s reporting—reliant though it is on the murky signals of anonymous intelligence agency briefers—emerges as a plausible glimpse into elite recalibration. One pivotal question remains: will Vladimir Putin, now in the position once held by Stalin, show the same cold restraint when dictating Ukraine’s final terms?

Ignoble Lies
Yet buried within Hersh’s seemingly straightforward account of power politics is an extraordinary claim: that Russia has suffered two million casualties since the war began—“nearly double the current public numbers,” according to Hersh’s intelligence sources. These “current public numbers” are the already highly exaggerated Ukrainian propaganda figures. The assertion that Kiev’s media manipulators are underestimating Russian war deaths by 50% is so fantastical, so extravagantly detached from battlefield realities, that it demands to be read not as a factual statement, but as a rhetorical device. And here, the legacy of Strauss becomes vital.

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Strauss argued that philosophers—and, we might add, intelligence bureaucrats—writing under the shadow of totalitarian regimes, often write in two registers. One is exoteric, the public-facing narrative crafted for the common reader. The other is esoteric, buried between the lines, directed to those capable of decoding the deeper message. To protect themselves from persecution—or to advance a political objective—clever writers employ contradiction, overstatement, and allegory as camouflage.

In his Economist interview, Zaluzhny used the esoteric method by subtly bringing up Mannerheim to warn his Western sponsors that he would seek terms from Russia if they did not provide him with the military hardware required for victory.

Hersh’s anonymous source tells us that Russian casualties have reached an apocalyptic scale: two million dead, most of them highly trained soldiers, mid-level officers, and elite armour units. The implication is that Russia has exhausted itself, its army now composed of “ignorant peasants” and rusting equipment.

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Russia’s supposedly “ignorant peasant” army—despite its alleged two million casualties—is now methodically closing in on an operational encirclement of Pokrovsk, the key southern Donbass logistics hub.

If this were true—if Russian forces had indeed suffered two million fatalities—then basic strategic logic would dictate a very different course of action. Far from urging Ukraine to sue for peace, NATO would be escalating support, the EU would be mobilizing in earnest, and Western special forces would be preparing their Ukrainian proxies for the next phase of advance toward the outskirts of Moscow.

And far from contemplating Zelensky’s political disposal, the West would be canonizing him as a latter-day Alexander, the supreme warlord of the democratic world—his portrait hoisted in every NATO war college, his doctrine enshrined in every future field manual.

But the opposite is happening. Western arsenals are depleted, Ukrainian forces are ceding ground, morale is visibly fraying, and calls for a ceasefire—whether immediate or deferred by fifty days—grow louder with each passing week. It is in this context that Strauss’s concept of the noble lie returns in grotesque modern form. The lie on offer is not noble in Plato’s civic-mythic sense, but strategic: a manufactured narrative, designed not to uplift but to obscure collapse and manage decline. The exoteric storyline fed to the public is one of Russian implosion; the esoteric message, for those attuned to it, is far more bleak. As the Freudian principle of projection would suggest—if not Freud himself—accusations often operate as veiled confessions. A properly Straussian reading of Hersh’s article yields a brutal subtext: the massive death toll haunting the war is not Russia’s, but Ukraine’s.

Fabricating Peace: From Tehran to Kiev
The pattern of strategic deception—the exoteric lie spoken aloud and the esoteric truth buried in silence—reappeared in even starker relief during the recent twelve-day war between Iran and Israel. That conflict, which risked engulfing the Middle East in a region-wide conflagration, ended with a whimper disguised as a trumpet blast. At its climax, President Donald Trump announced with great fanfare that U.S. B-2 bombers, deploying GBU-57 “Massive Ordnance Penetrators,” had obliterated Iran’s nuclear infrastructure in a precision night strike. It was, by his telling, a feat of techno-military grandeur, confirming American dominance and obviating further escalation.

But even the more credulous corners of the foreign policy press raised an eyebrow. Analysts across NATO capitals quietly affirmed that little, if any, meaningful damage had been done to Iran’s deeply fortified sites. Tehran, for its part, responded with only token retaliation not because it had been bludgeoned into silence, but because Washington had—through backchannels—signalled its interest in ending the war. The lie, therefore, was not so much a fabrication as a cover, designed to veil withdrawal in the language of victory.

What followed was the now-routine sanctification of untruth: those questioning the obliteration narrative were accused not of rational scepticism, but of insulting the valour and integrity of U.S. service personnel. The epistemic field was narrowed to a single acceptable noble lie—heroism plus triumph—with deviation cast as desecration.

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Yet to grasp the genealogy of the concept, we must return to its origin in Plato’s Republic, where the noble lie appears not as a crude deception but as a founding political myth—a story told by rulers to ensure social harmony and civic cohesion. Plato proposed two distinct but related fictions. The first is a myth of indigeneity, a “blood and soil” narrative in which citizens are taught they were born from the same earth, siblings in the service of a common destiny.

This fiction was designed to elicit sacrifice for the polis—a metaphysical alibi for patriotism. In postmodern, progressive polities, such atavistic nationalism has long been discredited. Yet ironically, Ukraine, lionized by the very societies that claim to have moved beyond mythic ethnos, has come to depend entirely on precisely this form of collective hallucination. And, increasingly, it appears to be fraying: Telegram channels now overflow with footage of forced conscription, men violently dragged off the street in scenes that mark the passage from the noble fire of myth to the cold paralysis of truth, where ideological fervour has been replaced by a death dread that cannot be lied away.

The second part of Plato’s myth introduced a tripartite caste system, based on an alleged “metal” in each person’s soul: gold for rulers and philosophers, silver for auxiliaries and enforcers, and bronze or iron for laborers and artisans. This structure allowed for some social mobility—golden children could emerge from iron households—but more importantly, it encoded the logic of differentiated discourse. Each class was meant to receive a form of rhetoric suited to its nature. The bronze masses were to be ruled by blunt binaries: good vs. evil, hero vs. villain, our tribe vs. theirs. The silver class—today’s professional managerial class (PMC), from press secretaries to think tankers—crafted and disseminated these narratives. But for the gold, the philosopher-rulers or (in modern guise) intelligence analysts, truth was to be sacrosanct, preserved in spaces immune to political coercion, so that wise decisions might still be made based on kernels of golden truth hidden within the midst of iron and bronze myth.

In theory, then, the intelligence community and reality-based geopolitical commentators ought to function like the commissioner’s box in a sports stadium, where the tribal loyalties of the crowd and the narrative flair of the commentators give way to dispassionate assessment. The bronze fans might chant for the 49ers while the iron root for the Raiders, the silver scribes might spin their columns accordingly, but only from the commissioner’s perch can one observe the rules, penalties, revenue flows and entertainment value with clarity. Yet when even this level is infected—when the gold class begins to imbibe its own propaganda—the system corrodes. Intelligence becomes indistinguishable from ideology, and decision-making, untethered from fact, drifts toward fantasy. In the context of Ukraine, where public discourse forbids acknowledging Russian advances or Ukrainian collapse, such blindness at the summit can only hasten imperial miscalculation.

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But unlike the mythic cohesion of Plato’s noble lie—designed to harmonize society under a shared fiction—Trump’s fabrication was forged in the cold furnace of strategic necessity. It was not that the truth was unknown to the gold tier of decision-makers; quite the contrary. Intelligence channels had made the situation clear: America and Israel were nearing depletion of their most advanced air defense interceptors. Iron Dome, Arrow, and THAAD systems had been stretched to the brink, and Iran, having weathered the initial bombardment, had begun to respond with far more precise, high-grade munitions.

Worse still, Israel’s shift to a counter-value strategy—targeting civilian infrastructure—threatened to provoke a broader, more dangerous Iranian response. A rapid de-escalation became imperative. Yet openly acknowledging this operational vulnerability risked not only political embarrassment, but reputational collapse. The solution was archetypal: craft a story that would end the war while preserving the illusion of triumph. A noble lie, then—not in its ideal Platonic form, but in its modern realpolitik guise—was summoned to stitch over the widening gap between strategic interest and public perception. The U.S. needed a dignified off-ramp from Iran; the truth could not provide one. The fiction of triumph, therefore, became the condition for disengagement.

Truth or Dare in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine, still ongoing, presents a more rigid structure of demands. Unlike in the Iranian case, where temporary disengagement was acceptable to both parties, Russia insists on a settlement tantamount to recognition of victory: full Ukrainian withdrawal from the four annexed oblasts, acknowledgment of Crimea as Russian territory, an end to NATO ambitions, demilitarization, and constitutional protections for the Russian-speaking minority. In addition, Russia would expect the lifting of Western sanctions and the unfreezing of assets—effectively, the restoration of a normalized relationship on Russian terms.

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This list of demands would be absurd—indeed, politically suicidal—for any Western government to entertain if Russia were truly suffering two million casualties. Were Moscow haemorrhaging men and material at that scale, the logic of attrition would compel NATO to escalate. Killing another million Russians, or pushing the front into Moscow’s leafy suburbs, would be strategically irresistible. That none of this is happening, and that calls for ceasefire now multiply across NATO capitals, indicates which story is exoteric performance and which is esoteric warning.

To this, one might append a literary footnote. In Ibsen’s The Wild Duck, the young truth-teller Gregers Werle insists on revealing a long-suppressed family secret, convinced that freedom lies in absolute honesty. But when the veils are stripped away, the result is destruction, not emancipation. “If you take the life-lie from a man,” one character observes, “you take away his happiness.” And so, many political truths, especially in declining hegemonies, are transformed into “regime-lies”—necessary to maintain the illusion of coherence, capability, and control.

Today, the West finds itself in such a posture: unable to admit the limits of its own power, unwilling to pay the price of true negotiation, and so trapped within the exoteric myths it tells to its own publics. Whether in Kiev or Tehran, the lie is rarely noble, but always necessary. And perhaps—as with the Soviet Union in its final years—the system will continue to speak of triumph even as it negotiates defeat.

https://www.beyondwasteland.net/p/chali ... -myths-and

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Ukraine - Zelenski Ends Independence Of Anti-Corruption Institutions

Last Friday I reported about a fight between the Zelenski regime on the one side and some oligarchs and U.S. aligned non-government-organizations on the other side.

An intense information operation has been launched to remove Ukraine's (former) President Vladimir Zelenski from office. Behind it are a cabal of Ukrainian opposition figures in coordination which western media and parts of the Trump administration.
The current campaign follows a earlier one which was directed against Zelenski's main advisor and head of the office of the president Andrei Yermak.


Pieces in western media had attacked the Zelenski regime with accusations that it was seeking control over the independent anti-corruption institutions which had been established after the Maidan coup. Anti-corruption investigation had lately been moving in on some persons near to Zelenski himself.

Excursus:

In most countries one will find on vertical judicial construct in the form of the police doing criminal investigations, prosecutors directing the police while building court cases against perpetrators and a hierarchy of courts to judge about those.

After the U.S. directed Maidan coup in 2014 the U.S. government, in form of then Vice-President Joe Biden, set out to gain complete control over Ukraine.

It insisted on creating a second, completely separate legal vertical in Ukraine focused solely corruption.

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The National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) investigates cases of corruption especially of officials in higher position. The Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Office (SAPO) assembled cases to go to court. The High Anti-Corruption Court of Ukraine is judging over them.

The vertical was designed to be independent of the Ukrainian government and state. A special Civil Oversight Council - not the parliament - is nominally in control of it. But the effective control was always with the U.S. embassy in Kiev through the various anti-corruption NGOs and media it was financing in Ukraine.

In 2020 the Constitutional Court of Ukraine judged that much of Ukraine's 2014 anti-corruption reform and the new vertical formed through it were unconstitutional. This led to a constitutional crisis which is still unresolved.

Over time the anti-corruption vertical had turned out to be as corrupt as the politicians and high level officials it was designed to keep under control.

End-excursus

Zelenski's opposition was using the anti-corruption complex, the attached NGOs and media to keep some pressure on the government.

Last week's public-relation attack by the opposition against Zelenski, via the Financial Times and other media, was supposed to gain it support from U.S. and European governments. However throughout the weekend no western support in form of public statements etc was received.

The Zelenski regime interpreted this as a green light to take down the last institution in Ukraine which is not under its direct control.

On Monday it launched its all out assault:

Ukraine's independent anti-corruption institutions have had a rough Monday.
The Prosecutor General's Office, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and the State Investigation Bureau conducted at least 70 searches in premises connected to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), which investigates top-level corruption.

The opened probes target at least 15 NABU employees. Most of the cases involve traffic accidents, while some of the NABU employees are also accused of having links to Russia.

The Security Service also searched the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO), which prosecutes corruption.

The sweeping searches, which involve a variety of cases, are seen as an attempt by authorities to bring independent anti-corruption institutions under government control.

"The special operation has all signs of an attempt to dismantle the anti-corruption infrastructure," Daria Kaleniuk, executive director of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, told the Kyiv Independent. "We are witnessing a decade of anti-corruption efforts in Ukraine being dismantled. This is a 180-degree turn away from European integration."

The Anti-Corruption Action Center's head, Vitaliy Shabunin, was himself charged on July 11 with evading military service and fraud.


Today the Ukrainian parliament voted to put the whole 'independent' anti-corruption complex under direct government control:

Ukraine’s parliament has backed a push by Kyiv’s presidential office for greater control over the country’s independent anti-corruption bodies, in a move that critics warn would hand President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s circle more influence over investigations.
Lawmakers voted on Tuesday in favour of legislation that would, in effect, eliminate the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (Nabu) and its partner organisation the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (Sapo), according to four lawmakers and officials familiar who spoke with the Financial Times during the vote.

The parliament also voted in favour of rushing the law to the president for his signature.


The NABU and SAPO are now under the control of the Prosecutor General who is appointed directly by the president.

These powers include authority over Sapo, access to case files and the ability to reassign or redirect Nabu investigations, NABU said on Tuesday.
Several MPs from opposition parties, including the former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, spoke in favour of the legislation, according to lawmakers. Tymoshenko accused Ukraine’s western partners of trying to control Kyiv through Nabu and Sapo.


The blitz against the anti-corruption organizations (accusations and searches on Monday, new law dismantling them on Tuesday) by the Zelenski regime was designed to surprise those who might have an interest in keeping some independent institutions in Ukraine. It is now too late to oppose it.

It also prevents NABU and SAPO from bringing up cases of corruption against Zelenski's operators as well as against the president himself.

Posted by b on July 22, 2025 at 14:26 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/07/u ... .html#more

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Ukrainian bots want the BBC to endorse war crimes in its reporting

Ian Proud

July 22, 2025

Trolling on X takes a new and sinister turn, Ian Proud writes.

On 18 July I made a post on social media platform X in response to a BBC report entitled ‘Kill Russians, win points: is Ukraine’s new drone scheme gamifying war?’ It produced a spectacularly dark backlash from the Ukrainian bot community.

The BBC report explored a Ukrainian military scheme in which its soldiers could claim points for kills by First Person View (FPV) drones and use those points to buy the most preferred military technology in an ‘Amazon for war’.

While Paul Adams, the BBC diplomatic correspondent, touches briefly on the moral challenges that this scheme presents, he was clearly impressed.

‘The e-points scheme is typical of the way Ukraine has fought this war: creative, out-of-the-box thinking designed to make the most of the country’s innovative skills and minimise the effect of its numerical disadvantage.’

‘Points for kills. Amazon for war. To some ears, it might all sound brutal, even callous. But this is war and Ukraine is determined to hold on. By fighting as effectively, and efficiently as it can.’

Every day, military personnel on both sides of the conflict are killed by drones and other military technologies. That is why I have consistently called for the war in Ukraine to be ended through diplomatic means and is why I continue to do so.

The problem I had with the article was its heading – about killing Ukrainians using drones – was accompanied by a photograph of a soldier (one might presume, Russian) with his back turned to the First Person View on screen, and with his hands in the air, suggesting surrender. I found this juxtaposition, on UK state-owned media, deeply troubling.

One might easily gain the impression by the headline and the photograph combined that the soldier’s fate was death. And if that was so, then that would constitute a war crime.

Under the Statute of the International Criminal Court, “killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion” is a war crime in international armed conflicts

One cannot know the fate of the soldier and whether he is killed or taken prisoner. And the article goes on to point out that Ukrainian soldiers can claim higher points for encouraging a Russian soldier to surrender, though does not point out how this would be possible with an armed drone

It is certainly the habit of the western media to churn out clickbait headlines in a bid to maintain waning public appetite for a war that Ukraine is losing and which Europe is funding at enormous expense.

However, it sets a dangerous precedent if the UK state-owned broadcaster is producing articles that infer war crimes are taking place and implicitly endorse the means of that happening.

I therefore included in my post a poll which asked people to vote on:

Do you want the BBC through its reporting implicitly to endorse war crimes and show images purporting to or giving the impression of the circumstances leading up to a war crime taking place?

I don’t have a huge X following, but my post garnered 20,000 votes over three days with over 90% of those who voted responding ‘no’, specifically that appearing to endorse war crimes in media reporting was wrong.

As I didn’t mention a specific country, some people argued that the allegation might also be levelled at BBC reporting of IDF atrocities in Gaza.

However, today my post was seized on by very-obviously-Ukrainian bots flinging all sorts of insults in my direction, such that I have spent a decent period of time today blocking and reporting offensive content on my feed.

Such insults included being an asset of the KGB, being a Putin apologist, sucking Russian dicks and being a paedophile who uses of teenage Russian prostitutes.

I was also added to a large number of ‘Lists’ that X members keep, such as ‘nazi whore cowards’ and ‘Russian propagandists’.

All very annoying and intended to discredit me en masse. Some made more troubling comments that can only be interpreted as threats of causing me harm.

Many made more generalised comments about how any Russian solider in Ukraine should deserve such a fate and so on.

However, this was not the most sinister aspect of the response to my post.

In addition to voting that the BBC should not implicitly endorse war crimes, the other option was to vote for: ‘Please endorse war crimes’.

As I write this piece, 332 people in total have voted in the poll, of which 193 have voted in favour of the BBC endorsing war crimes through its reporting of Ukraine. That’s right, 58% of, one assumes, mostly Ukrainian or Ukraine-supporting voters, endorses the BBC endorsing war crimes, in this context committed by Ukraine. Rather than delete the post, I have kept the poll running and am completely confident that the percentage will be nudging 70% in the morning, if not higher.

Herein the central truth of this and all wars; that they generate intense hatred of the other. That hatred fires the bloodlust that drives war crimes in any theatre of conflict. No war is free of war crimes. British, French, American, Russian and, yes, Ukrainian, service personnel have been documented as having committed war crimes, together with those of many other countries.

War reduces humanity to the darkest depths of depravity in which the most unconscionable acts are justified on the basis of defeating the hated other. Forgive me if for believing that the BBC should not be glorifying that, even if implicitly.

I would far sooner they were pushing for a negotiated settlement to this terrible war.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... reporting/

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UKRAINIAN NEOFASCISM – War Time Developments, Part 1: AZOV’S EXPANSION
by Gordonhahn
July 21, 2025

{In addition to my own work, this article benefits from the social network research postings of Clark University Assistant Professor Marta Havryshko and Ottawa University Professor Ivan Katchanovski, as the footnotes demonstrate.}

Neo-fascism and ultranationalism may not have been the most powerful element in Ukraine or even among Ukrainian nationalists before the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War, but they are almost certainly so now, and they are becoming increasingly powerful military-politically, culturally, and ideologically. Ukraine’s neofascists have never been satisfied with the Maidan revolt, despite their pivotal role in overthrowing the previous oligarch-dominated order, which the Maidan revolt only replaced in part. They have always looked to the future and the final completion of the ‘nationalist revolution‘, as they call it. A few years ago, Dmitro Yarosh, founder and then leader or “coordinator” of Ukraine’s neofascist Right Sector (RS) and later advisor to now fired Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who is now Kiev’s ambassador to the UK, promised there would be a ‘second phase of the nationalist revolution’ of which the February 2014 Maidan revolt was supposedly but the first. The second phase is to sweep away the liberal and oligarchic remnants of the pre-Maidan democratic order brought into the Maidan regime, in Yarosh’s view. Yarosh recently repeated his call for the completion of the neofascist revolution on his Facebook page: “As it turned out, during the Dignity Revolution and the Russian-Ukrainian War, Ukrainian nationalists became the main factor in the Ukrainian national-liberation struggle in the 21st century… I am a Ukrainian Nationalist – sounds proud both in Ukraine and across the world. The next power after the War for Independence should be nationalist. Otherwise, we will once again be led down an unbreakable cycle of national humiliation, corruption, degeneracy, moral degradation, economic decline, inferiority and defeat… Therefore, after the War for Independence, the wise, courageous and noble should rule in Ukraine. Glory to the Nation!”

TO READ FURTHER: SUBSCRIBE TO MY SUBSTACL.COM SITE AT: gordonhahn.substack.com

https://gordonhahn.com/2025/07/21/ukrai ... expansion/

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North Korean Type-75 mortars in the SVO zone
July 22, 17:11

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The enemy complains about the light 107-mm MLRS "Type-75" from the DPRK used by the Russian Armed Forces

According to a Ukrainian military man with the call sign "Alex", the Type-75's deployment scheme is simple and effective, and there is no counteraction: the Russian Armed Forces install a compact MLRS in a forest plantation 5-6 km from the front line, fire a salvo and pull it back.

"The thing is small-sized and if there is no ammo inside, it is almost impossible to destroy it, only if there is a direct hit, the guides can be repaired and replaced fairly quickly by towing the installation to the rear. The ammo for them is also relatively small in size compared to the BM-21," the Ukrainian military man writes on social networks.


https://t.me/anna_news/81485 - video of use

https://t.me/anna_news/82337 - zinc

They are, of course, a little crooked, but more than suitable for their purposes. They found their niche.
It would be interesting to read reviews of the use of 170mm Koksan howitzers in the SVO zone. Several dozen of them were brought in.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9970342.html

Google Translator

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NYT: Numerical Advantages in Troops, Air Power Are Behind Russia’s Gains
July 22, 2025
Russia Matters, 7/21/25

1.For a number of reasons, including Russia’s numerical advantages in troops and air power,1 “Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine is gaining ground as its forces attack on multiple fronts,” according to The New York Times’ Ivan Nechepurenko and Constant Méheut. Russia gained more than 214 square miles of Ukrainian territory in June compared to 173 square miles in May, according to the data collected by Ukraine’s OSINT group Deep State and analyzed by the two NYT journalists.2 And Russia is not just seeking to capture more territory. “Its goal is to destroy Ukraine’s military potential, its army,” Valery Shiryaev, an independent Russian military analyst, was quoted as saying in the NYT article. According to the data collected by the Institute for Study of War and analyzed by RM staff, Russia’s net territorial control in Ukraine, if only including gains made after the launch of the full-blown invasion in February 2022, increased from 44,229 square miles in May 2025 to 44,463 in June 2025. If one compares the monthly rate of change in Russia’s control of Ukraine’s territory in June 2025 (234 square miles) with the average monthly rates of change in such control in the five preceding months of this year (Period I, 130 square miles) and in the 18 months that had preceded June 2025 (Period II, 153 square miles), then one sees that the June 2025 rate is considerably higher than the average rate during either of these two periods.*
2.“Mass attacks of Shaheds, an Iranian-designed drone now manufactured in Russia, appear to be overwhelming Ukraine’s beleaguered air defenses, with the drone hit rate reaching its highest levels since Moscow’s invasion,” Charles Clover and Christopher Miller report in the Financial Times. “Ukrainian air force data suggests about 15% of the drones penetrated defenses on average between April and June—rising from just 5% in the previous three months,” these FT journalists report. “The success of the drones in recent months demonstrates how cheap mass can overwhelm even sophisticated and layered air defenses,” especially if the drones are modernized to enable them to fly higher, faster and further, according to the duo.
3.“The Ukrainian system of power has transformed so much that the name of the prime minister is no longer as important as it once was. In the current system, only the president and his chief of staff really matter,” Konstantin Skorkin writes in reference to the recent cabinet reshuffle in Ukraine. “The latest reboot is generally being explained as a move by the head of the presidential administration, Andriy Yermak, to strengthen his position even further… As his relationship with Washington deteriorated, Yermak felt it was necessary to shore up his influence on domestic policy,” Skorkin explains in his commentary for Carnegie Politika. That Ukraine’s new prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, is a protégé of Yermak is something that Financial Times’ Miller also mentions in his analysis of the latest political developments in Ukraine. Miller focuses his analytical take on “anti-corruption raids on prominent Ukrainian figures and moves to favor loyalists in senior positions.” These actions “have led to accusations that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government is sliding into authoritarianism,” Miller writes. “If the institutions meant to enforce checks and balances are turned into political tools, Ukraine risks losing the democratic core it fought to build after 2014,” Miller warns.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/07/nyt ... ias-gains/

NYT and FT are a little slow on the uptake...
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Jul 24, 2025 12:09 pm

Diplomacy and protests
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 07/24/2025

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“The Ukrainian delegation has arrived in Turkey ready to take significant steps toward peace and a comprehensive ceasefire, but everything will depend on whether the Russian side is willing to adopt a constructive approach,” Reuters wrote yesterday afternoon , citing a diplomatic source from the Ukrainian delegation in what was the most optimistic statement made in the hours leading up to the third meeting between Russia and Ukraine held yesterday evening in Istanbul. Unlike the Russian delegation, which arrived directly in Istanbul led by Vladimir Medinsky, wearing a polo shirt reading “Putin team,” the Ukrainian team, headed by Rustem Umerov, first visited Ankara. The objective was to meet with Erdoğan, a way to directly involve Turkey in the negotiations, gain the support of a would-be mediator in the process, and continue to emphasize Ukraine’s main objective: a meeting between the presidents.

Although both delegations had lowered their expectations of what could be achieved at this meeting practically from the moment the meeting date was announced, their statements also revealed a very similar position on one of the key aspects of this negotiation process, which encompasses everything but political issues. Throughout the day, everyone from Vladimir Putin's spokesperson to President Zelenskyy, as well as members of both delegations, had emphasized the importance of agreeing to new prisoner exchanges. This has been the main outcome of this process, which has never amounted to negotiations, given the differences between the two countries over the meaning of the word and their interest in achieving a dialogue format different from the one taking place, intermittently and without the necessary continuity or political content, in Turkey. "I've heard what they're saying," responded Vladimir Medinsky, one of the figures most criticized by Ukraine for his closeness to Vladimir Putin, when asked about Ukraine's objective of promoting the idea of a presidential summit. As on the two previous occasions, neither Russia nor Ukraine made any secret of the agenda they would try to impose at the meeting. For Russia, Dmitry Peskov had insisted that a breakthrough should not be expected, but, as Ukraine did, he emphasized the importance of continuing to agree to prisoner exchanges. These swaps allow the parties to recover their soldiers, some of whom are reported missing, and, perhaps more importantly, to claim progress that demonstrates their willingness to move toward peace without making major political concessions. So far, the ruse had served the interests of both countries and bought Russia time in the face of Donald Trump's growing impatience.

Yesterday's meeting was the first since Donald Trump adopted the ultimatum language already used by European countries and gave Vladimir Putin 50 days to reach an agreement, which did not even specify whether it should be a ceasefire or a peace agreement. "Naturally, no one expects an easy path. It's going to be a very difficult conversation," Dmitry Peskov had declared before the meeting, implying that Russia's strategy had not changed despite the fact that it was his responsibility to defuse Donald Trump's threat by yielding to Ukraine's will or getting kyiv to change its position of not negotiating political issues in the Istanbul format. "The plans [of the two countries] are diametrically opposed," he insisted, anticipating the outcome of the meeting.

From Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, advisor to Andriy Yermak at the President's Office, briefly summarized the position with which the Kyiv delegation arrived in Turkey. “The Istanbul format serves important and specific purposes. The first is the exchange of prisoners. The previous two rounds significantly increased the number of released Ukrainians, including civilians. The second is the return of deported children. This humanitarian mission should become a central point of discussion. The third is preparation for future high-level negotiations. The final decisions in the Kremlin are made by a single person. President Zelensky has repeatedly emphasized that an end to the war is only possible with the direct participation of both heads of state,” he wrote hours before the start of the meeting. Ukraine's interest in this format is solely the humanitarian aspect, something on which Russia agrees almost completely, and political pressure.

As previously revealed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and later confirmed by Zelensky, Ukraine has no authorization to conduct negotiations beyond pressuring Russia to accept the unconditional ceasefire of the European ultimatum. Although Zelensky is the one who imposed this veto and who demands that the presidents meet to seek an agreement to resolve the war, according to the Ukrainian narrative, it is Moscow that makes dialogue impossible, since the delegation led by Medinsky has no mandate to negotiate. In the upside-down world of the propaganda narrative of the war, it is actually the Russian team that is trying to negotiate political issues with the one led by Umerov.

The main outcome of the meeting, as in the previous two, was the positive aspect of having two warring parties engaged in direct dialogue since 2022. Any dialogue, even the most frustrating, is preferable to the silence of the previous three years, in which the only possible path to resolution was the eternal continuation of the war without even the most basic gestures of exchanging prisoners, civilians wishing to return to the other side of the front, or seriously wounded soldiers. As on previous occasions, the continuation of this process is the most tangible outcome of yesterday's meeting, even shorter than the second one. Russia and Ukraine not only agree on the importance of prisoner exchanges, but also on the firmness with which they cling to their leading position: Russia demands negotiations in the format of technical meetings that will result in a treaty that the presidents can finalize, while Ukraine demands moving directly to a meeting of heads of state. As a sign of some progress, the parties agreed to a new exchange of 1,200 prisoners for each side. As expected, that was the only agreement reached, as Russia again rejected the Ukrainian idea of a presidential summit. Avoiding the format of technical meetings, Zelensky aims to elevate the format to a summit with the support that the presence of Presidents Trump and Erdoğan would provide. Moscow, as it has done so far, demands preliminary work before a presidential meeting, meaningless when there isn't even a roadmap to negotiate.

In this situation, Ukraine's position remains the same: demanding more weapons for its military from its allies and sanctions against Russia. "A real breakthrough in negotiations with Russia will not occur until the Kremlin feels substantial sanctions and military pressure. Our American and European partners clearly understand this. Therefore, the current focus is on increasing pressure on Russia, while expanding Ukraine's ability to strike enemy military targets on its territory," Podolyak wrote. Donald Trump's ultimatum has left Ukraine with even less incentive for direct negotiations with Russia in the current conditions of weakness on the front lines and uncertainties in the domestic political situation. Zelensky's team's bet remains on maintaining the dynamic of purely humanitarian negotiations while waiting for the 50-day grace period Trump granted Vladimir Putin to elapse, and crossing their fingers that this time, unlike with the previous 18 packages, the sanctions will magically achieve kyiv's goal of defeating Russia.

However, the main news of the day in Ukraine was not the Istanbul meeting, but the continuation of the dispute between the liberal nationalist wing linked to NGOs and Zelensky's government, a faction quickly joined by Biletsky's Azov faction with a discourse strikingly similar to the president's. "Russian agents cannot have immunity," stated Andriy Biletsky, founder and political leader of the Azov movement, showing his support for the government's claim that the individuals investigated or harassed by the SBU during this time were, as is customary in Ukraine when attempts are made to smear an opponent, agents of the Kremlin. Zelensky, who on Tuesday night, when the protests against the measure had already begun, signed the law placing the anti-corruption structures created by and for the West under the control of the Prosecutor General's Office, met yesterday with representatives of the various agencies in dispute.

“I brought together all the heads of Ukraine's law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies, along with the Prosecutor General. It was a much-needed meeting: a frank and constructive conversation that really helps. We all share a common enemy: the Russian occupiers. And defending the Ukrainian state requires a sufficiently robust law enforcement and anti-corruption system, one that guarantees a true sense of justice,” the president wrote, trying to formalize the new situation. However, the pressure is not only coming from the street demonstrations, where large groups of young people and some political figures such as the Klitschko brothers could be seen, but also from the European Union and the press sympathetic to the sector that now feels disgruntled. “We all listen to what society is saying. We see what people expect from state institutions: guaranteed justice and the effective functioning of each one. We discuss the administrative and legislative decisions necessary to strengthen the work of each institution, resolve existing contradictions, and eliminate threats. We will all collaborate. On a political level, we will provide support,” he added, without specifically mentioning the first demonstrations against him since the start of the war, but opening the door to future changes. With difficulties on the front lines, internal mobilizations, national and international articles presenting the measure as the end of democracy and targeting him directly, and veiled threats from the European Union, Zelensky cannot afford to continue a struggle in which he possibly only has one foreign ally, Donald Trump, aware that it was the anti-corruption agency that gave the Democratic Party compromising material against Paul Manafort, who was briefly a member of his campaign team in 2016. However, on this occasion, the relevant opinion is not that of the US president, but that of the European Union, whose funding is essential for the sustenance of the state. Yesterday afternoon, European media reported that Ursula von der Leyen had asked Zelensky for an explanation.

“We agreed that next week there will be a comprehensive working meeting on the joint action plan. And within two weeks, a joint plan should be ready outlining the necessary steps to be implemented to strengthen Ukraine, resolve existing problems, provide greater justice, and truly protect the interests of Ukrainian society,” the Ukrainian president concluded, attempting to present what appears to be a new amendment to the law not as an obvious political defeat for a president who believed himself to be stronger than he actually is, but as a magnanimous gesture in pursuit of a justice that neither the Ukrainian state nor anti-corruption institutions have guaranteed over the past decade.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/24/diplo ... protestas/

Google Translator

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From cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Zakharova's main statements at the briefing:

- The strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian territory, including Sochi, are a targeted terrorist attack on civilians.

- Chisinau's plans to open only two polling stations in Russia are turning the elections into a political circus, there is no talk of justice.

- Chisinau's plans to open only two polling stations in Russia are a slap in the face to the citizens of Moldova.

- With the parliamentary elections approaching, Chisinau continues to tighten the screws on the opposition.

- Moscow does not see the expediency of high-level participation in the OSCE conference in Helsinki on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Final Act, but does not rule out participation in it.

- Merz is raising the temperature of anti-Russian rhetoric every day, the course of escalating relations with Moscow is a cause for concern for the Germans themselves.

- NATO's accusations against Russia of alleged involvement in cyberattacks have no evidence, this is a political fake.

— Baku's release of detained Russians would be a significant step toward normalizing relations between Russia and Azerbaijan.

— The West aims to put the reconciliation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan on its own track, which could lead to an imbalance in the security system in the region.

***

Colonelcassad
The main points from D. Peskov's statements:

- Civilians are being held in Ukraine as hostages

- Russian military is doing everything possible to create buffer zones on the border with Ukraine

- Russia is supporting the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan in every possible way

- There were no specific discussions about a possible meeting between Putin and Trump in China, the Kremlin has not heard about the US President's plans to go to China

- Contact between Moscow and Washington can be quickly organized if necessary

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Brief Frontline Report – July 23rd, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 23, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: “Units of the "North" Group of forces have liberated the settlement of Varachino in the Sumy Region through decisive operations.”

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Буферная Зона=Buffer Zone. ЛБС 31.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 31st, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The village of Varachino (coordinates 51°08′28″N 34°55′46″E, population approximately 60) formed the left flank of the Ukrainian forces' defensive line Varachino-Yablonovka-Yunakovka in the Sumy sector buffer zone.

On June 13, 2025, Russian forces liberated Yablonovka, the central defensive area of this sector. The Ukrainian command, assessing the threat of Russian units advancing toward the Khrapovshchina (Hrapovshchina)-Yablonovka highway and potentially flanking Yunakovka, as well as considering the negative political and propaganda impact of possibly losing Yunakovka during this difficult period of begging for more handouts from the EU while dealing with internal conflicts, decided to reinforce this direction.

Reserves of the Ukrainian armed forces were deployed to the Sumy Region from all sectors where the situation permitted, with the aim of stopping the advance of Russian troops.

However, the strategy of the Russian General Staff is structured in such a way that regardless of the Ukrainian forces' actions, they maintain the initiative by simply switching operational modes:

MODE "A": When conditions permit advancing - they attack, destroying enemy manpower, equipment, and weapons;

MODE "B": When the enemy decides to advance into the Russian killing zone - they halt, engage the enemy, destroy their manpower, equipment, and weapons, then begin active operations in sectors where the enemy has withdrawn units to reinforce the Sumy direction.

In both modes, the task set by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is accomplished: demilitarization and denazification of the fascists.

In this local sector, the methodology mirrors that of the overall theater of operations - when the enemy concentrates forces and efforts on our right (Kondratovka-Alekseevka) and left (Yunakovka) flanks, Russian units strike at the center - today this was Varachino. A week ago, pressure was applied at Miropolye (south of Guevo).

As our ancestors taught: "No one plays hero. There's no need. We calmly burn their tanks."

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -july-23rd

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Echoes of Maidan Mark Zelensky's Sudden Fall from Grace
Simplicius
Jul 23, 2025

It appears rumors of Trump’s flushing of Zelensky may have had something to them, as tonight the knives have come out for Zelensky and his gang. What started as gripes against push back on some irrelevant NGO-run organs has turned into a fledgling ‘Maidan’ against the now unfavored Ukrainian leader. (Video at link.)

As always, establishment rags were swift with their coordinated messaging to energize the push:

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Most eye-opening about the fall from grace is how boldly the chosen actors are playing their lines, pearl-clutching about some imagined ‘repressions’ of a pair of organizations virtually no one has heard of or cared about until a few days ago, in this case NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine) and SAPO (Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office).

There are myriad other far more pressing concerns for Ukraine, not even counting the war itself, and yet the pitched fight around some Biden-era “anti-corruption” watchdogs is what has animated the intelligentsia and paid-off ‘influencer’ sphere to take to the streets with pre-branded slogans and obligatory ‘English’-scripted signs?

There’s no real point rehashing the whole backstory because it’s just a convoluted cover for the latest psyop-turned-color revolution. But for those interested, the most detailed accounting was written up by this Ukrainian commentator—though likely cribbed from Grok.

The real machinations can only be speculated on, but one plausible version was outlined by former-Ukrainian MP Artem Dmytruk—who fled Ukraine late last year after challenging Zelensky for his persecution of the UOC (Ukrainian Orthodox Church):

‘He steals 10 billion dollars a year’ — MP Dmytruk explained to Europeans why Ze is liquidating NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine)

‘As for what is happening now between the anti-corruption body and the Zelensky regime, it can be said that the anti-corruption body has started an investigation, a small investigation into corruption crimes committed by Zelensky, about the so-called ‘black’ money that he allegedly steals from Ukraine. And we are talking about more than 10 billion dollars a year that Zelensky allegedly steals in Ukraine.’


In short: Some believe the anti-corruption organizations finally got their marching orders from above to target Zelensky’s coterie by digging up “dirt” on them, presumably to initiate the process to eventually remove Ze from power, or at least begin putting major pressure on him as an implied threat to toe the line.

Sensing the plan, Zelensky moved to preemptively begin hamstringing the corruption watchdogs. He arrested the ‘head of detectives’ at NABU under the trumped-up suspicion of spying for Russia, not long before submitting the bill to the Rada to effect a ‘hostile takeover’ of these “independent” organizations, putting them under total state control.

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https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/07/22/7522933/

The formation of these institutions was demanded as part of mandatory “reforms” by the EU for Ukraine’s eligibility for accession into the bloc; this is for a reason. Like NGOs, such organizations are designed by the establishment to serve as levers of power, control, and leverage working “independently” away from elected government—which in actuality means they are unaccountable and unelected. This is in strict accordance with the elites’ classic blueprint for subverting governments and taking power away from the people, no different to the “federal” reserve system that was foisted on the world without any real debate.

This is just the latest replay of the Biden scandal, wherein he openly bragged about eliminating chief prosecutor Victor Shokin who had dared to investigate Burisma and Hunter Biden’s shady dealings in Ukraine. The excuse given then was also that Shokin had “failed to properly investigate corruption”, which is the establishment’s favored MO each time they need an inconvenient pest removed. Fancy beau ideals like ‘reform’ and ‘corruption’ are eaten up by the hoi polloi like a steamy batch of protest brownies.

Even back in his seminal speech of February 22, 2022, Putin had exposed these very organizations like NABU as being run out of the US embassy in Kiev—listen closely: (Video at link.)

“The US Embassy in Ukraine directly controls NABU and SAPO.” — Vladimir Putin, Feb 22, 2022

The other thing Putin is referring to above confirms what I just wrote about unelected bodies. When you dig into how these organizations are run, and how their key players are appointed, you find that the process is controlled by a commission of European “specialists”. Ukrainians are also on the board, but the Europeans have the overriding vote. From one source, describing the process for the ESBU, otherwise known as BEB or BES, in short, the Economic Security Bureau that was forcibly created at the behest of the EU, alongside NABU and SAPO:

Candidates for the ESBU are selected by a Selection Commission consisting of three international experts and three government-nominated experts, with international partners holding the decisive vote.

Another Ukrainian source directly writes that the UA government had to ask the international commission to resubmit new candidates for the director position:

The Cabinet of Ministers asked the competition commission to resubmit candidates for the position of Head of the Bureau of Economic Security (BES).

It further writes:

The bill provides for mandatory recertification of employees, and also establishes that international partners will have the decisive voice in the selection and recertification of employees.

So, just as in the “democracy” of the EU system itself, an unelected commission of outsiders has all the say in positioning their favored directors of these Ukrainian organizations. These directors then take all their marching orders from the US embassy, as per Putin.

This is why Zelensky’s head of the SBU Vasyl Maliuk today denied the organizations were being ‘abolished’, but rather, they were being returned to their constitutional mandates:

"Nobody has abolished anything" — this is how the head of Ukraine’s Security Service, Vasyl Maliuk, responded to the bill that would eliminate the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU). "This is simply a return to the constitutional framework. Neither SAPO nor NABU has been abolished — they continue to exist and operate effectively. We are working together with NABU leadership and detectives. I believe it will be a positive development for them that the Prosecutor General brings in fresh ideas, based on his experience. Unlike them, he supported Yanukovych’s indictment — and they did not," Maliuk stated.

Not that there’s any “good guy” in this, but you can’t deny that Zelensky’s moves are in effect correct, despite being for obviously ulterior reasons.

Either way, this may have been the opening shot of what may turn out to be a coup, or at least a period of destabilization and factions vying for power in Ukraine, amidst a big societal shake-up. One of the things to watch will be the potential for a ‘perfect storm’ to broadside Ukraine at this critical moment.

I refer to the situation on the front, wherein today the Pokrovsk line has “catastrophically” deteriorated—as per Ukraine’s DeepState maps’ words. One analyst even described it as the single largest one-day breakthrough of the war since Ukraine’s own Kharkov offensive in late 2022. Russian forces were said to have sprinted somewhere between 6-10km in the north Pokrovsk region, cutting a critical road between Nove Shakhove and Shakhove. But I will refrain from elaborating on it in detail until next time, when it’s determined if Russian forces actually established themselves in new positions there for definite or not.

But one can see the potential for this kind of perfect storm: an untimely frontline collapse just at the moment Zelensky is enduring his fiercest internal pressures—things may get very interesting in Ukraine soon.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ech ... kys-sudden

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You picked on the wrong people
July 22, 2025
Rybar

You picked on the wrong people
" American protégés targeted in Kiev "

On the eve, the structures of the Kiev regime conducted large-scale searches in the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU). The official reason was the transfer of secret information by employees to Russia through Yanukovych's entourage, as well as high treason.

The events took place without a court decision, during which several NABU employees were detained and beaten, and they refused to have their injuries documented. At the same time, a bill was approved in Kyiv on the actual liquidation of the bureau and the special "anti-corruption prosecutor's office."

One could have passed by yet another act of Ukrainian showdowns over feeding troughs, if not for one nuance: NABU, from the moment it appeared, was an organization controlled by the US, which the Kiev regime did not want to touch.

So if Washington decides to put Zelensky out of the equation, then this episode will be the formal reason: the media will start trumpeting how this became the starting point for the so-called Ukraine's departure from democracy, and therefore a change of president is necessary.

As for Ukrainian corruption, the closure of NABU is unlikely to have much of an impact on it: the structure had no influence on the scale of theft by the top brass of the Kyiv regime, playing a completely different political role.

https://rybar.ru/ne-na-teh-naehali/

Google Translator

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More Promises Of Western Aid Emboldened Ukraine To Neutralize Anti-Corruption Institutions
Andrew Korybko
Jul 23, 2025

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Ukraine’s gravy train will continue chugging along, fueled by Western taxpayers’ funds, though all this promised aid will only perpetuate the proxy war on Russia instead of ending it.

The EU and NATO recently promised more aid for Ukraine. The first did so in late May after the European Council created the “Security Action For Europe” (SAFE) instrument, which will provide up to €150 billion in low-interest loans for defense investments in the bloc’s members and also Ukraine, while the second came in mid-July when Trump announced that NATO members agreed to pay full price for new US arms that they’ll transfer to Ukraine. These promises emboldened Ukraine to raid its anti-corruption bureau.

Bloomberg condemned the move in a sharp opinion piece while The Economist warned that “something sinister is at work” after Zelensky then signed a law that was rushed through the Rada shortly afterwards for subordinating the anti-corruption bureau and its prosecutorial counterpart to presidential control. Protests have since erupted in several Ukrainian cities over the latter move, which could only be possible with the SBU’s tacit approval, but it’s premature to conclude that a power struggle is underway.

In any case, a security-related pretext was exploited to justify intimidating and then subordinating anti-corruption institutions to the presidency ahead of more promised aid from the West. Had those promises not been made, then there’d be a lot less money to steal, thus making it less likely that Ukraine would risk negative Western media coverage by doing what it just did. After all, those moves generated more negative attention than any of its anti-corruption institutions’ accusations against state officials.

Nevertheless, precedent suggests that the West won’t curtail its promised aid despite credible concerns that some of it will be stolen, including some of the arms that NATO might soon send. Russia’s First Deputy Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyanskiy claimed last October that “15% to 20% of all military goods received by Kiev end up on the gray and black markets within the next two weeks.” The Swiss-based Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime also warned about this threat in February.

The reason why Western aid will likely continue flowing into Ukraine in spite of it brazenly neutralizing its anti-corruption institutions is because that bloc has already accepted that some of it will be stolen as the price to pay for continuing their proxy war on Russia. For as loud as public opinion against this campaign might sometimes become within their society, average folks have practically no influence over the formulation of foreign policy, whose decisionmakers routinely ignore their complaints and concerns.

Many of them pinned their hopes on Trump disengaging from the conflict and thus likely leading to the US’ junior partners following suit since they’d struggle to replace its lost aid, yet he deeply disappointed them with his new three-pronged approach towards this proxy war that can be read about here. His clumsy attempt to thread the needle between radically escalating American involvement and walking away convinced Zelensky that he was successful in his efforts to manipulate Trump into mission creep.

The end result is that Ukraine’s gravy train will continue chugging along, fueled by Western taxpayers’ funds, though all this promised aid will only perpetuate the proxy war on Russia instead of ending it. At most, it might decelerate the pace of Russia’s on-the-ground gains, but it’s not expected to reverse them. The ideal solution is for the West to cut its financial losses by coercing Ukraine into compromising with Russia, but that won’t happen without Trump’s leadership, and he’s now more interested in escalating.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/more-pro ... emboldened

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Tuesday, July 22, 2025
Scott Nails ...

... the heart of the matter.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/SoFAipq0 ... ture=share

One of the main points which is constantly missed--why would people who are beginning to live equal or better than EU, and doing this completely out of their own (colossal) resources, and who know that in 5-7 years they will live much better than Europe, "invade"? To do what? Ah, yes, to rape European women, after all this is what a bunch of low lives from UK such as Anthony Beevor who is denied a good looking woman in his life (did you see those British women at the top?) believe. This is not to say that British or Germans do not have attractive women, but WW II history as "taught" in Oxford or, let alone, Germany is all about Europeans being irresistible for those hordes of Asiatic subhumans such as Russians.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/07 ... nails.html

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Russia and Ukraine Set for Third Round of Talks as Ceasefire Hopes Fade

Image
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in Istanbul, Turkey, July 23, 2025. X/ @visionergeo

July 23, 2025 Hour: 7:35 am

With mismatched timelines and clashing demands, miraculous breakthroughs are unlikely.
When Russia and Ukraine sat down for peace talks earlier this year, the world watched with hope. Now, as a third round approaches, expectations have cooled.

With mismatched timelines and clashing demands, even the Kremlin itself admits that “miraculous breakthroughs” are unlikely. As the battlefield grinds on, is hope for a ceasefire dimming?

SAME TABLE, DIFFERENT DATES?

Though both sides agreed to resume talks in Istanbul, Türkiye, they haven’t quite agreed on the exact date, given conflicting reports.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Monday that a newly appointed delegation will meet with the Russian side on Wednesday and is “preparing for a prisoner exchange.”

But on the very same day, Russia’s state news agency TASS reported a different timeline, saying the talks were set for Thursday. “The meeting is scheduled for July 24. The delegations may arrive in Istanbul on July 23,” it reported, citing an anonymous source.

While the previous two rounds of talks in Istanbul — on May 16 and June 2 — led to the exchange of thousands of war prisoners and the bodies of dead soldiers, they yielded little progress on reaching a ceasefire.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin downplayed expectations for the upcoming meeting. “We don’t have any reason to hope for some miraculous breakthroughs,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday, calling such outcomes “hardly possible in the current situation.”

Russia intends to “pursue our interests, we intend to ensure our interests and fulfill the tasks that we set for ourselves from the very beginning,” he noted.

STILL TALKING, STILL DIVIDED?

Peskov also said that Moscow and Kiev are “diametrically opposed” in their positions on how to end the conflict, noting that “much work” still needs to be done.

Following the last round of peace talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the blueprints for a peace deal shared by the two sides were “absolutely contradictory memorandums.”

As Russia demands Ukrainian neutrality, a pledge to stay out of military alliances, and international recognition of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as Russian territories, Ukraine’s memorandum noted the country is “not forced to be neutral.”

“It can choose to be part of the Euro-Atlantic community and move towards EU membership. Ukraine’s membership in NATO depends on consensus within the Alliance,” it said.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent threat appears to have had little impact on Moscow. Promising to end the conflict on day one of his second term, Trump told the BBC last week that he is “disappointed” with his Russian counterpart, warning that he would impose 100 percent secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia if Moscow fails to sign a ceasefire deal within 50 days.

In response, the Kremlin dismissed the “ultimatum” as “unacceptable.” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the country’s “special military operations” in Ukraine will continue if “political and diplomatic work” stalls.

“This is an unshakable position. We would like Washington and NATO as a whole to take it with the utmost seriousness,” Ryabkov added.

TALKS AHEAD, DRONES ABOVE?

Hours after Zelensky announced the upcoming talks, Russia launched a wave of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine overnight, killing at least two people and injuring 15.

“Throughout the night, Russia launched more than 420 drones and over 20 missiles, including ballistic ones. The waves of attacks lasted all night and continued into the morning,” Zelensky wrote on social platform X. “That is why we must continue scaling up our interceptor capabilities. This is the kind of solution that can protect us from massive attacks.”

The Ukrainian president announced last week that his government will ramp up domestic arms production to meet half the country’s military needs within six months. He added that Ukraine has also developed its own long-range drones to strike deep inside Russia.

Meanwhile, Switzerland said last Thursday that the U.S. Defense Department informed it of plans to “reprioritize the delivery of Patriot systems to support Ukraine” in response to Russian strikes.

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said, “The plan is that there will be American-made defense equipment, capabilities, that will be sold to our European allies, that they will provide to Ukraine,” without giving a timeframe for the weapons deliveries.

The Kremlin has repeatedly criticized NATO’s weapons support to Ukraine. “Basically, weapons supplies don’t go towards peace but to prolonging the ongoing conflict,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said earlier this month.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/russia-a ... opes-fade/

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On the protests in Ukraine
July 23, 20:26

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On the protests in Ukraine

Protests against the purge of NABU (the Western structure for control of Ukraine) are as controlled as the protests of "widows and wives of missing persons", through which they are allowed to let off steam without any chance of "widows' Maidans" and "battalion marches on Kiev". Maidans in Ukraine have always been held with the permission and support of the USA.

If the USA wants to replace the cocaine Fuhrer by autumn, they can use the ongoing protest clown show, where "conscious Ukrainians" rally for the preservation of the Western system of external control in its previous powers. This is the main problematic issue of modern Ukraine. Of course, real protests related to truly important and fundamental problems in Ukraine are simply impossible in the conditions of full-scale Nazi terror.

If everything is limited to the discontent of Sorosites and the gang of Poroshenko and Co., then all this will collapse, as in all previous "protests". If the US really wants to reboot the system of external control of Ukraine (as Russia demands), then they can use (or not use, so as not to indulge Russia) protests to create conditions for the fall of the cocaine Fuhrer and his replacement with a figure more convenient for the US. In this case, the protest can receive external support and immediately turn into a systemic threat to the power of the cocaine Fuhrer. For now, the US is taking a wait-and-see position and is not forcing the situation.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9971674.html
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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Jul 25, 2025 11:44 am

"Semi-autocracy"
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ July 25, 2025

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Continuing the trend of recent days, several Western media outlets, in addition to Ukrainian liberals, continue to exploit the issue of corruption to deepen the pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky's entourage. After three years in which criticizing the Ukrainian president seemed unthinkable and the only comments were positive, recent months have seen an interesting change, as it has come after the recovery of the good relationship between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump. After the period of confrontation and humiliation in the Oval Office, which saw the Ukrainian leader regain some of his lost popularity, Zelensky, with the help of his European allies, has struggled to reconnect with his American counterpart, showcase Ukraine's value as a strategic asset, and highlight Trump as a great leader for his country and the world.

In this crusade, Zelensky has not hesitated to bite the hand that fed him for almost three years. From the Russian invasion until he left office in January 2025, Biden was Zelensky's ideal partner, sponsoring the proxy war, bearing much of the cost of military supplies to Ukraine, and proposing a strategy in which Ukraine did not obtain the weapons as quickly as it demanded, but in which the only possible solution was fighting on the front lines. Since he defended Ukraine until Donald Trump's stance made it impossible to openly renounce diplomacy, negotiation was not, since the breakdown in the summer of 2022, an option for Washington, which always relied on the tactic of gradual escalation to ensure that the war continued as Kiev desired, albeit without the risk of direct confrontation with Russia. But Biden is a thing of the past, and Zelensky's priority for almost a year has been to shape his discourse to suit Donald Trump's needs, even if that means renouncing his main ally in the war against Russia.

“I am grateful to the United States for all the help provided during this war. The United States has supported us, and I have always said that we are grateful to the White House, grateful for the bipartisan support,” Zelensky stated in a recent interview, in which, just before doing so, he insisted that he did not want to “criticize anyone.” He was there for Ukraine from the beginning, the Ukrainian president emphasized, “but President Biden was not able to end this war.” After the implicit criticism for not having given kyiv what it needed in terms of weapons for the front and sanctions against Russia, Zelensky proceeded to praise his new ally. “I am confident that President Trump can do it. I think that is the main difference,” he concluded with a speech in which he highlighted Putin’s fear, in his opinion, of Trump and, above all, the current US president’s ability to achieve what his predecessor could not: force Russia to accept the peace that Ukraine desires. The argument falters considering that, so far, Trump has failed to impose peace, not even a ceasefire has been achieved, and it is more than uncertain whether the sanctions he is threatening will achieve what 18 previous sanctions packages have failed to do. However, the praise is relevant to the extent that it represents a certain betrayal by Zelensky of the US sector that guaranteed kyiv's ability to continue fighting during the most difficult moments.

In part, this explains a certain change in attitude among media outlets like Politico , which are closer to the Democratic Party than the Republican one, especially the Trumpist camp. After the initial moment following the Oval Office debacle, a time when Zelensky's defense was staunch, much like it had been after the Russian invasion, criticism of the president's team intensified. The target of the criticism, the easiest target since he is not an elected official, was Andriy Ermak, whose authoritarianism, arrogance, and excessive power had already been highlighted by Politico and The Economist before Zelensky decided to take legislative action against one of the foundations of external control of Ukraine's economic and judicial institutions: the anti-corruption agency and prosecutor's office.

Now, faced with the perceived betrayal of the social contract of Maidan Ukraine, which, in the name of sovereignty and the fight against Russia, was supposed to allow an enormous level of interference by Western countries and institutions in the economy and also in the organization of the state, several media outlets continue to target Andriy Ermak. After three years of constantly praising Zelensky as the perfect statesman, it is more convenient for the media to target his right-hand man, a way of implicitly criticizing the president, but without needing to explain why the Ukrainian government's authoritarian tendencies, evident long before the Russian invasion, have received no media attention.

A brutal Financial Times article , which claims to have relied on more than 40 sources, is the perfect example of the ongoing harassment and undermining of a figure who has been key to Ukraine becoming the ideal proxy for the West, willing to continue fighting to the last Ukrainian in the common war against Russia without demanding the direct participation of the sponsoring countries. The American media outlet insists on something that has long been evident: the accumulation of power in a few hands and the important role of Andriy Ermak, whose influence it claims is equal to, or even greater than, Zelensky's. In the President's Office, as has always been known, but apparently the Western media have refused to see, Ermak has around two dozen hand-picked advisors who have access to national security information and meetings with foreign leaders.

The contradictions within Ukrainian society are not being analyzed even at the present time, with the largest demonstrations since the victory on Maidan, nor is there any need to explain the shift in discourse, which has gone from insisting on presenting Ukraine as an example of democracy in Eastern Europe to practically depicting the usurpation of power by President Zelensky's right-hand man. As head of the President's Office, the Financial Times is surprised to learn, Andriy Ermak drafts peace plans, practices shadow diplomacy, and appoints officials to key positions. The outlet reveals what was also known: that both the current prime minister and the highest-level military leaders are loyal to him and regularly have to answer to him.

The Financial Times accuses Yermak of interfering in military planning and, as expected, mentions the offensive to try to recapture Bakhmut, an action directly linked to Oleksandr Syrsky and one of the reasons for the clash between the current commander-in-chief and Valery Zaluzhny, whom he succeeded. It is clear that the current criticism of Yermak is, by extension, also an attack on Zelensky and Syrsky, so it is not difficult to see in the current campaign a maneuver by the sector close to Poroshenko, under whose mandate the anti-corruption institutions that Zelensky is trying to place under his control were created. Zelensky's promise to quickly pass a new law to guarantee the independence—which in reality it never had—of the anti-corruption agency, while avoiding Russian influence—which also never existed—that he made yesterday in his conversation with Keir Starmer, indicates that the Ukrainian president has already accepted his defeat. However, as a pressure measure, even after confirming that the new law will restore the "independence" of anti-corruption institutions—which they never truly had—the demonstrations continue. Unaware that those without the necessary financial resources or political connections are already prohibited from leaving the country, the children of the middle class lament the possibility that the European Union will cancel visa-free travel for the Ukrainian population.

The public protests and the demands of Western countries have opened the door for expanded criticism, which generally comes from sources close to Poroshenko or parties like Holos, a completely artificial creation linked to those liberal sectors funded by foreign NGOs. The target is not only Yermak, but also Zelensky. In addition to the harsh article dedicated to him last weekend by the British outlet The Spectator , two others by the same author, Owen Matthews, who yesterday even demanded his resignation as a way to save democracy. The attack on the anti-corruption institutions imposed by Western countries during Poroshenko's time has achieved what actions such as banning political parties, postponing elections until after the war, withdrawing by decree the ballot papers obtained by MPs considered opposition, or eliminating any non-nationalist opposition, failed to achieve.

“As a democratic state, Ukraine faces two threats. Its first and most obvious adversary is Moscow, which has long desired to turn the country back into a Kremlin puppet, a mere Russian satellite. But arguably, there is another, insidious and corrosive adversary within: the country's own semi-autocratic leadership,” Politico wrote yesterday in an article that doesn't limit itself to criticizing Yermak, but takes aim directly at Zelensky. “Until now,” the outlet admits, “these concerns have been kept private, primarily to avoid giving Moscow the propaganda gift of undermining Western support for Ukraine's defense.” “But now, everything is different.” Eliminating all traces of democracy hasn't been a problem, but threatening to attack institutions under Western control quickly draws comparisons with Vladimir Putin, and epithets abound that cast doubt on the democratic credentials of the president, whose authoritarian tendencies date back to when he came to power.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/25/semi-autocracia/

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******

From cassad's telegram account:

The situation in the Ukrainian Armed Forces: protests around NABU and Nazis of the 33rd regiment began to insult Zelensky

General

- Having analyzed publications on social networks and having talked to captured Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen, we came to the conclusion that the situation around NABU is seriously underestimated not only by Zelensky's office, but also by many Russian publications (political scientists).

Indeed, it was mainly numerous "grant eaters" who came out to the "Maidan", financed for years by the Soros Foundation and other organizations.

Ordinary Ukrainians swim across the Tysa, hide from the TCC man-catchers, or have long been mobilized into the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- a number of Ukrainian opposition channels believe.

No one argues with this thesis, however, the social media resources controlled by the "Sorosites", as well as the bloggers associated with them, have done their job and a hypothetical Mykola of pre-retirement age already considers NABU to be the key to his comfortable existence, and Zelensky - a usurper of power.

We specifically interviewed about 50 prisoners of war (expect a video soon) , each of whom said that he knew perfectly well what NABU was, and about 30 more would join the protesters. At the same time, some of the people we interviewed do not know which countries Ukraine borders and today, for obvious reasons, they are deprived of the influence of "Soros propaganda".

The situation around NABU clearly shows that information and propaganda work is "a long game", which can bring results in 5-10 years, or may go completely unnoticed.

- The Armed Forces of Ukraine, apparently, intend to increase the number of its group in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration , in connection with which the head of the "Donetsk OVA" Vadim Filashkin called on the local population to evacuate. The Ukrainian occupiers simply want to occupy houses and apartments and local residents.

- Another Ukrainian border guard, 29-year-old Staff Sergeant Vitaliy Guga (a native of Uzhgorod), threw down his weapon and fled to Hungary, where he can request political asylum.

- As expected , against the backdrop of a shortage of tanks, the 1st Tank Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out organizational and staffing measures and became a "heavy mechanized".

The difference between a tank and a heavy mechanized brigade is that the latter loses one tank battalion and receives an additional mechanized one.

Chronicles of mobilization

- Lviv TCC showed a video calling on Ukrainians to voluntarily join the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, we drew attention to an important nuance: "in the Ukraine of the future, according to the TCC "will be inhabited mainly by representatives of the Negroid race" . The final frames of their propaganda video clearly show the "future of a happy family".

It would be very funny if it were not reality...

In the Sumy direction

- Against the backdrop of colossal losses, the enemy transferred the 300th training tank regiment (military unit A1414) to the Sumy direction from the Chernihiv region , which was initially formed exclusively for training military personnel and their subsequent distribution among combat brigades.

The training tank regiment is part of the Desna training center in the area of the urban-type settlement of Goncharovskoye (Chernihiv region).

- Against the backdrop of growing protest sentiments in Ukraine, servicemen of the 33rd separate regiment recorded a video message insulting V. Zelensky,which "cannot provide the unit with UAV assets."

It is characteristic that in addition to the forcibly mobilized Ukrainians, the 33rd separate regiment is widely represented by the Right Sector, and the regiment is commanded by the well-known neo-Nazi V. Manko .

- Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers from the 225th separate regiment directly call on the relatives and friends of their missing comrades to forget about their existence in social networks. Naturally, the cynical approach was met with hostility by widows and mothers...

- Units of the 82nd separate airborne brigade, partially withdrawn from the Kharkiv and Sumy regions to "restore combat capability", were eventually transferred to the Donbass in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) area, where they operate north of the city.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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UKRAINE IS TARGET PRACTICE AT THE END OF THE ROAD – NEW NIMA PODCAST

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By John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

The third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul came and went in just one hour, and the Russian plan to continue the meeting on Thursday was dropped.

A face-to-face meeting between the two delegation heads, Vladimir Medinsky for Russia, Rustem Umerov for the Ukraine, was held before the plenary session; it lasted for less than 30 minutes. They were then joined by the Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan; the three talked for 15 minutes. In Kiev it was officially denied that Umerov spoke with Medinsky before Fidan joined them. Fidan then formally opened the session of the delegations, declaring “the ultimate goal of the negotiations in Istanbul is to reach a ceasefire for which Turkey has the necessary infrastructure to track compliance.” Between 7:51 pm and 9:39 pm the proceedings were open and shut.

For the Ukrainian side, Umerov read from a brief handwritten note that “we are ready for a ceasefire right now and for the start of substantive peace negotiations. It is up to both sides to agree to this fundamental step toward peace. The ceasefire must be genuine — it must include a complete halt to attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure. Real steps are possible, and each side must demonstrate a constructive and realistic approach.”

More voluble in Kiev, Vladimir Zelensky posted a statement on Telegram reporting a fresh exchange of prisoners of war; he ignored the Istanbul outcome.

The deadlock which the Russians had proposed to break with the “new idea, new concept” which Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on July 10 was dismissed by the Ukrainian side. Instead, it was agreed, as Medinsky announced in his press conference, “to form three working groups that will work online”. The Ukrainians, he said, agreed only to “consider this proposal.” Umerov didn’t say so.

According to Fidan’s later statement, there was agreement to think about the working groups, but no agreement to start them. “The delegations also discussed possible steps to intensify technical discussions on the ceasefire and align their positions. They also agreed to explore the idea of establishing working groups on political, humanitarian, and military matters.”

Manouvres there were; surprises there were not.

A Russian source comments; “So next contacts are downgraded to working groups so that’s the end of talks. Now guns, drones, and missiles will do the talking.”

In Washington there was no direct reaction. The White House is concentrating on Trump’s departure on Friday to meet King Charles III and Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland.

At the same time, on Trump’s order Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), launched from the White House press room a series of accusations against both President Vladimir Putin and former President Barack Obama for plotting against the US. “Putin’s principal interests”, according to Gabbard, “relating to the 2016 election were to undermine faith in the US democratic process, not showing any preference of a certain candidate. Putin chose not to leak the most damaging and compromising material on Hillary Clinton prior to the election; instead planning to release it after the election to weaken what Moscow viewed would be an inevitable Clinton presidency…The material about Hillary Clinton that Putin chose not to release before the election, included possible criminal acts.”

Obama, she accused, of a conspiracy “to subvert the will of the American people…essentially…a years-long coup against President Trump.”

In the new podcast with Nima Alkhorshid, the discussion focuses on the Russian goal to secure Trump’s agreement to a ceasefire for a single short-term objective – regime change in Kiev by nationwide elections to replace Zelensky. The silence in Kiev and also in Washington, which has followed the session in Istanbul, confirms that Zelensky knows this and is reinforcing his power at home and abroad, in order to save himself.

Listen to the hour-long podcast here:

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wS40olu8paQ

Ahead of the Istanbul talks, leading Ukrainian politician in opposition, Oleg Tsarev, wrote on his Telegram platform that he was expecting “three options. The first is mutual attacks at the meeting and further escalation, based on the fact that Kiev receives weapons, money and is ready to fight further. The second is a calm discussion at the meeting of some behind-the-scenes agreements, which can be finally fixed by the 50 days allotted by Trump. And the third is an ostentatious performance for Trump – both sides, though for different reasons: discussion of terms in the two memoranda, 11-points [actually 22 points in the Ukraine term sheet] and 33-points [the Russian term sheet] and the continuation of the war as it is going.”

After the concluding press statements from Medinsky and Umerov, Tsarev said: “The Ukrainian side offered the Russian meeting of Putin and Zelensky by the end of August…Clever move. There are no agreements on anything. For Putin to meet with Zelensky makes no sense. Zelensky wants to get a HYIP [high-yield investment program]. But if you refuse, it turns out inconvenient for Trump, [so he will say] Russia is disrupting the negotiations.”

Russian sources in a position to know say Lavrov’s “new idea, new concept” is, on the one hand, an acknowledgement that bridging the differences between the 33-point Russian term sheet and the 22-point Ukrainian one is impossible to negotiate with the Ukrainians so long as Zelensky holds power.

On the other hand, it’s a proposal for Trump to remove Zelensky in exchange for a ceasefire for enough time to create a new regime by elections, and for US delay in all arms deliveries in the meantime. In short, end-of-war negotiations after Zelensky – and a summit meeting for Trump to celebrate his ceasefire with Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 3.

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President Xi reviews the military parade in Tienanmen Square, Beijing, in 2015 for the 70th anniversary of China’s Victory Day. President Putin attended; the US was represented by its ambassador at the time, Max Baucus.

According to one of the Russian sources, “Russians are showing diplomatic maturity and statecraft and the Army is gaining ground from strength to strength. They are not rejecting Trump. They shouldn’t. But they are not giving up on him. They are being pragmatic. I believe Trump will be see-sawing between the European narrative and the reality on the ground. Reality will prevail. The question is what tipping point. MI6 is burying Zelensky but that might be because Brits want to install their own Nazi who won’t give up [on fighting the war against Russia]. So Zelensky is on the precipice. What this means is that Russians will agree to go to a ceasefire . And that will clear the way for the Trump-Putin meeting. But no terms [of the 33-point memorandum] will be explicitly agreed with the US. Everything from now on will be implicit. That’s why Europeans are going crazy over Zelensky. They must be fearful of an agreement.”

A military source comments: “Most Russians are tired of the Ukrainians and would be just as happy to shut the whole Zelensky regime down. So, who is the target audience for Putin’s reluctance to do that? Is it in Ukraine? After three years of war, there is still no mass resistance among the [Ukrainian] population who continue to do little except take individual measures — draft dodging, border hopping. Clearly, they will not stop supporting the war as a society until their society, which is racist in Russia warfighting and bent on stealing from each other, cannot function. Putin’s strategy appears to be to work around the edges. That’s like using a stake to stab a vampire in its hands, arms and legs, instead of driving it through the monster’s heart. Yes, they’ll keep pushing the fighting at the front and bombing the rear to induce a Ukrainian surrender. To the Ukrainians and their US and European allies, this is a demonstration of military capability without the political will to employ it decisively, once again.”

According to Tsarev, Russian public opinion is increasingly impatient at the damage to their transport infrastructure which the daily Ukrainian drone attacks are causing, especially to rail and airport travel for Russians going on their summer holidays. The interruptions of scheduled rail and airline flights, especially in the Moscow region,are pushing Russians to travel by car, and this is leading to record-breaking traffic jams at points like the Crimean Bridge. “By small forces and at minimal cost, the enemy paralyzes the work of our transport infrastructure, and we are suffering large losses. It’s quite serious. And it’s too bad if we don’t find a way to counteract it.”

In the podcast discussion we also referred to the list of new weapons for delivery to Kiev, paid for by the Europeans, which has been published by former prime minister, now Defense Minister Denis Shmygal. Here is his list:

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Source: https://x.com/Denys_Shmyhal/status/1947306889915842761

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Source: https://x.com/Denys_Shmyhal/status/1947334865415794928

https://johnhelmer.net/wp-content/webpc ... &nocache=1[/img]
Source: https://x.com/Denys_Shmyhal/status/1945523875770413380

On the meaning of Trump’s 50-day deadline for Putin to come to terms, Nima aired an excerpt the State Department briefing of July 22. Here is the transcript.

“QUESTION: … On Ukraine, if I may. Does the Secretary have any expectations from upcoming talks in Istanbul given its timing, its format? Are you guys even part of it?

MS BRUCE: I can’t necessarily speak to the Secretary’s thoughts dynamically, but I know that our ambassador to NATO had some – a number of remarks to make that he made this morning on television regarding the talks – again, this would be Istanbul. He – first of all, I can tell you that we’re aware of the scheduling of a third round of talks being negotiated between the two parties. We continue to encourage direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in pursuit of a comprehensive ceasefire and eventual negotiated peace settlement.

The ambassador – [US NATO] Ambassador [Matthew] Whitaker in this case – said: ‘I’m encouraged that both sides are going to sit down again and negotiate, because that’s the only way this is going to be resolved. Getting both sides to the table, like getting to – getting both sides to the table is going to happen this week, is important; it is an important next step, and I think that’s all because of the leverage that the United States of America and President Trump continues to apply.’

He also noted that, as we’ve said repeatedly, constructive, good-faith dialogue is the only path to ending this war. That has been a hallmark of Secretary Rubio’s remarks, that only the two parties can make the difference in deciding to stop this. And the President supports any mechanism that leads to a just, durable, and lasting peace.

QUESTION: Yesterday marked one week since the President gave them seven weeks. Are you guys doing any assessment? At this point, do you think this one-week window already allows you to draw any conclusion about their behavior?

MS BRUCE: I would caution, when the President notes a block of time or a window, that it could be any time in that window. We’ve already seen that in one instance [Iran]. There is – at the same time, with negotiations – as I mentioned before without going into the details – if there’s a genuine negotiation happening and it is in – it’s in motion, then things can change rapidly; that the day you set up a window, two days later it can be different because of the conversations that have been had.

So it’s never a static – for most of us, if we make a plan, it’s kind of a static plan for us. We have an appointment and we choose that day for the appointment next month. That’s not the case here. These are opportunities that the President speaks about, which is part of an important aspect of his leadership and what – what the person who we’re speaking with should know that there might be some options, but it’s not the only thing he’s looking at. It’s not the only dynamic that matters, and it’s – we’ve seen him give windows before, and he’s acted very quickly within a block, and I think that’s why it matters.

He knows – he’s said very – often, many times, he’s not happy with what’s happening and the choices that Russia is indulging in.”

At the conclusion of the podcast, we discussed the allegations of indictable treason, sedition and coup plotting which Trump Administration officials are now making against President Barack Obama and his national security officials in December 2016, following their defeat by Trump in the election of November 2016, and before Trump’s first term began in January 2017.

Trump himself has avoided alleging the capital-punishment offence of treason. Instead, he has spoken of the 20-year imprisonment offence of sedition. “We’re going to add that to all the stuff that we found. It just confirms it. But what we found is even more so. Now we found absolute — this isn’t like evidence or this is like proof, irrefutable proof, that Obama was seditious. That Obama led — was trying to lead a coup. And it was with Hillary Clinton, with all these other people.”

For the difference between treason, sedition and related crimes against the state, click to read this. For prosecuting a conspiracy of treason, words, meetings and plotting aren’t enough – actions, including the organization of force for hostile action against the state, are required, together with the intention to betray the state to an enemy. Here is how the US Code defines sedition:

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Source: https://codes.findlaw.com/us/title-18-c ... sect-2384/

In an initial Russian reaction to the new Trump campaign by the Vzglyad publication, analyst Yevgeny Krutikov claims that presidents have constitutional immunity from prosecution for offences committed while they are in office. This is not so, as the record of presidential impeachment trials has shown, especially the two Trump faced in his first term.

On the other hand, Krutikov’s conclusion is that “the American state operates in a regime of behind-the-scenes deals and intrigues. And this is not stability, but stagnation and maintenance of the regime of oligarchic power, that is, in the words of supporters of the MAGA movement, the ‘deep state.’ On the other hand, rocking the current system is not beneficial to Trump himself… It looks like all this is just the beginning of a scandal. The scale of which, with further development, may overshadow both Watergate and the Bill Clinton case with the shaking of the constitutional foundations of the modern United States.”

https://johnhelmer.net/ukraine-is-targe ... more-92153

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Brief Frontline Report – July 24th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 24, 2025

Part 1:

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "In the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, as a result of offensive actions by the "Center" group of forces, the settlements of Novoekonomicheskoe (marked with a Russian flag) and Zverevo (not marked with a flag, but it is marked on the map in the second part) of the Donetsk People's Republic have been liberated."

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

The village of Novoekonomicheskoe (48°19′40″N 37°19′55″E, approx. 300 residents) is the forward position of the suburbs of Krasnoarmeysk—Mirnograd (Dimitrov/Dymytrov). This is the left flank of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's eastern defensive line (Sofiyevka - Novoekonomicheskoe), covering Krasnoarmeysk. It was a major AFU defensive stronghold on the left bank of the Kazenny Torets River. As of today, both riverbanks—from the village of Mayak to the town of Grodovka—are under Russian control. The natural obstacle of the Kazenny Torets River has been overcome, and after regrouping and concentrating forces on the left (western) bank, Russian units will begin advancing toward the defensive strongholds covering the city, which are located in the area of numerous mines and urban infrastructure.

Over the past two weeks, we have observed the "Russian swing" tactic on the relatively small Mayak-Novoekonomicheskoe sector. Active operations were conducted in the Mayak-Novotoretskoe area. The enemy, attempting to cover this direction by maneuvering forces, immediately "activated" the central sector, where our assault units began advancing from Razino toward Rodinskoye, reaching the Krasnolimanskaya and Rodinskaya-2 mines. To counter the threat of a breakthrough, the enemy deployed reserves to the Sukhetskoye-Rodinskoye line. Without halting their northern advance toward Novoe Shakhtovo and Vladimirovka, our units struck the left flank, reached the left bank of the river, liberated Novoekonomicheskoe, and created a threat of enveloping the rear of the AFU'S Moskovskoye-Promin defensive sector on the southeastern face of the city’s defenses.

The village of Zverevo (48°14′55″N 37°07′28″E, approx. 1,000 residents), located on the southwestern corner of Pokrovsk’s defensive line, has been liberated from the Nazis before. Two months ago, after a failed AFU counteroffensive aimed at cutting off the Kotlino salient, the village fell into the gray zone. Today, it has been liberated and now serves as a stronghold for our assault units to either advance toward Pervomayskoye-Krasnoarmeysk (Pervomayskoye is visible on the second map) or push northwest toward the railway to reinforce the Kotlino sector.

Part 2:

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A new, more detailed map of the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) area, showing both flanks for clarity. The scale is smaller, but the noose around Pokrovsk’s neck is visible—and it will tighten with each passing day.

The right flank of the eastern line is anchored at the village of Mayak, with Vladimirovka above it, expanding northward toward Shakhovo on the outer encirclement radius of Pokrovsk. The Mayak position covers the right flank of units operating in the Belitskoye-Pokrovsk direction and secures a bridgehead on the left bank of the Kazenny Torets River.

From Novotroitskoye (liberated on July 22), the "Center" Group's assault units are engaging the AFU’s Boykovka-Suvorovo-Fedorovka defensive sector, pinning down enemy forces that threaten the right flank of our assault groups entrenched near the Krasnolimanskaya mine’s vent shaft (шахта Краснолиманская, to the east of Rodinskoye) and the ponds near the Rodinskaya-2 mine (Шахта Родинская-2, same area).

From Razino, movement continues along the central line toward the outskirts of Rodinskoye, where enemy strongpoints are positioned near the Krasnolimanskaya and Rodinskaya-2 mines.

The left flank of the eastern line consists of the Nikolaevka-Mirolubovka (Myrolyubovka on the map) positions, now reinforced by Novoekonomicheskoe. Operations here target the approaches to Mirnograd (Dimitrov) and the Stakhanovskaya mine (Шахта Стахановская, just west of Novoekonomicheskoe) along the Pokrovsk-Novoekonomicheskoye highway, tying down the AFU’s right flank and preventing enemy maneuvers along the line of the combat contact). With the liberation of Novoekonomicheskoe, our units have gained access to the left bank of the Sennaya River (a tributary of the Kazenny Torets), threatening the rear of the AFU's Moskovskoye-Dimitrov defensive sector.

The southern face of the enemy’s defenses is anchored on the left by the Sennaya River. The defensive sector is located in the urban areas of Mirnograd (Dimitrov) and the southern districts of Pokrovsk. The right flank of the AFU’s southern defenses lies near the railway opposite the village of Kotlino. The entire southern line benefits from developed urban infrastructure, providing strong defensive positions manned by motivated Nazi units from "Lyut" special forces, the 68th Jäger Brigade, the 425th Separate Assault Regiment, and the 35th Regiment of Ukraine’s National Guard. The fighting here is positional, but reports indicate activity by our reconnaissance-sabotage groups in the Lazurny, Shakhtersky, and Solnechny districts. They are probing enemy positions near Pervomayskoye, where, according to Ukrainian channels, they have "run out of personnel." Today, the southern line’s left flank was reinforced with the liberation of Zverevo.

The western line (Kotlino-Novonikolaevka) is covered by the AFU’s deeply layered defenses, consisting of strongholds at "Pokrovsky Mine" (Шахта Покровского, just north of Udachnoe)-Udachnoe-Muravka. The left flank (Pokrovsky Mine) and center (Udachnoye-Novopodgorodnoye) rely on the Kovalikha, Matyushina, and Gorodskaya ravines, where the enemy has likely prepared fallback positions to cover the M-30 highway and railway supplying Pokrovsk. On this line, our assault and recon units are conducting reconnaissance-in-force in the Udachnoe-Molodetskoe and Novonikolaevka-Muravka sectors.

How this "Krasnoarmeysk bud" will unfold and the "Pokrovsk noose" tighten will become clear in the coming days, once supporting operations on the Pokrovsk sector’s operational radii are completed.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -july-24th

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Ukraine - Zelenski's Backtracking Shows Fatal Weakness

Two days ago the (former) President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski dismantled the 'independence' of the specialized police (NABU) and prosecution (SAPO) organizations which are supposed to fight high level corruption.

It took less than 24 hours from the introduction of the law to get it passed through parliament and signed by the president. NABU and SAPO are now under the control of the prosecutor general who is under the direct control of the presidency.

There is no straight answer yet as to why Zelenski decided to do this right now.

NABU had just recently released corruption allegations against then deputy prime minister Oleksiy Chernyshov, a person who is near to Zelenski. There are rumors that NABU was preparing to release accusations against other members of Zelenski's inner circle.

Some speculate that NABU was to be used to restrain Zelenski from making concessions to Russia. Others speculate that NABU had to be reigned in because it was used to pressure Zelenski towards a peace plan.

Either way Zelenski will have hoped that the U.S. would not respond to the move. NABU and SAPO were created on behest of then Vice-President Joe Biden and played a role in the Russiagate allegations against Donald Trump. Biden had used NABU and accusations of corruption to control politics in Kiev. The European Union, Zelenski may have thought, would not protest because that would endanger its efforts to use Ukraine to fight Russia.

Those calculations have been wrong (archived):

Ukraine’s western backers rushed to try to persuade Zelenskyy to change course. French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council president António Costa phoned him on Tuesday in a last-ditch effort to dissuade him, according to people familiar with the matter.
G7 ambassadors in Kyiv also urged a rethink during a meeting that afternoon with Kravchenko and Ukraine’s spy chief Vasyl Malyuk, who tried to smooth western concerns.

The envoys found themselves confined to a room without their phones for more than two hours, which one diplomat described as an effort to “silence” them and keep them from informing their governments of the fast-moving events in Kyiv.


On Tuesday night protests erupted in Kiev.

On Wednesday Zelenski made the huge mistake of tracking back:

Volodymyr Zelensky has appeared to backtrack on his controversial corruption reform in an attempt to end protests in Ukraine.
The president said he had “heard what people are saying” and decided to propose a new bill in parliament in two weeks’ time.

“Very importantly, all norms for the independence of anti-corruption institutions will be included,” he said.


For a strongman to to make concessions and thereby show weakness is fatal.

Despite the apparent climbdown, thousands still descended onto the streets of Kyiv for a large-scale protest on Wednesday night shortly after the president made the statement.

Some protesters said they did not believe the president’s attempt to address criticism of the reform went far enough.

The EU published its disagreement:

Earlier on Wednesday, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, “conveyed her strong concerns” over the law, her spokesman said.
Brussels chiefs warned Mr Zelensky’s original legislation endangered both supplies of aid and Ukraine’s eventual entry into the European Union.


Western media, which had been strong supporters of Zelenski, suddenly changed course.

The Spectator called Zelensky’s war on Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies a disaster. The Economist writes of a strategic blunder (archived). The Telegraph demands for Zelenski to step aside.

The protests and the change of mood are only the beginning of a storm that has been building for some time (machine translation):

[Y]esterday's "blink" of Zelensky changed the situation.
It is obvious that now the protests will continue and, quite likely, new forces will be involved in them. There are a lot of people who are dissatisfied with Zelensky in the country, including those who are faced with the prospect of complete loss of business and going to prison if the power in the country does not change. For example, Ihor Kolomoisky, whose media is increasingly negative about the authorities' reporting on protest actions. And other oligarchs and just big businessmen are clearly not comfortable with the situation of their complete dependence on Zelensky and the constant fear that they may be sent to prison at any time. And there are also those whose businesses were taken away by the authorities through the hands of security forces, criminal cases were fabricated, thrown into pre-trial detention centers, and sanctions were imposed.

In general, many people can use their resources to join the anti-green movement. In addition, those who are dissatisfied with the forced mobilization or relatives of those who have been mobilized can also join the protests (or organize their own actions). In general, disillusionment with the government and Zelensky personally has been growing in society for a long time, as has the protest potential. But it was prevented from spilling out by the widespread belief that it is impossible to protest during the war. Current promotions have shown that it is possible. Therefore, it is possible that now the protests will go on increasing and on a variety of occasions.


More bad news for Zelenski is coming:

According to Strana's sources in grant circles, the organizers of the protests plan to publish in the media in the near future a number of particularly impressive corruption cases that the NABU investigated against Zelensky's inner circle and top officials. And the number one task is to encourage the military to join the protests. If the latter succeeds, the situation for Zelensky will become really threatening.

All this is already destabilizing the inner situation in Ukraine. Whatever the outcome however it is unlikely to mean peace:

As for Zelensky's resignation, it will not in itself mean a drastic change in the situation. Although conspiracy theories are already spreading that everything that is happening is the implementation of the West's plan to overthrow Zelensky in order to then end the war, the departure of the current president from his post is not equal to ending the war. This can happen only if Vladimir Putin is ready to conclude a truce with Zelensky's replacement, abandoning his current demands such as transferring control over four regions and reducing the Armed Forces of Ukraine. None of the representatives of the current Ukrainian elite, including Zelensky's opponents, intends to fulfill these requirements. Just as no one in the West wants to encourage them to do so.

Things could change though if the Ukrainian military breaks apart.

The situation on the battlefield is dire. There is again a huge shortage of artillery ammunition. The lack of infantry has led to leaky front lines. Over the last days Russian sabotage reconnaissance groups (DRGs) were fighting within Pokrovsk even while the official frontline was still miles away from the city. A Russian push northward of the bulge between Pokrovsk and Konstantinivka went for several miles before meeting some feeble resistance. It is threatening to cut the supplies to both cities.

Image

The fall of both cities within the next few weeks seems likely.

Meanwhile massive Russian drone and missiles strikes continue to menace industrial and transport facilities far from the frontline.

Posted by b on July 24, 2025 at 16:10 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/07/u ... .html#more

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From hero to zero

Ian Proud

July 24, 2025

Western leaders wake up to the realisation that President Zelensky isn’t a corruption fighting democrat after all.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, in February 2022, Volodymyr Zelensky has been elevated to the status of a hero King, pure in thought and deed, interested only in saving humble Ukraine from the onrushing hordes of Russian Orcs. Like Aragorn from Lord of the Rings, but short, thin-skinned and with a gravelly voice. He has been completely immune from any criticism in the west, with all allegations dismissed and labelled as Kremlin talking points.

Yet, in an instant, that illusion has been shattered.

For the first time since February 2022, Zelensky has been revealed as, in practical terms, no different from other Ukrainian Presidents who have preceded him since the country gained independence in August 1991; corrupt and authoritarian.

This comes as no surprise to most realists, but will be a devastating blow to the neo-liberal true-believers who have invested their reputations and cash into defeating Russia.

This week, President Zelensky signed a law that strips two important anti-corruption bodies – the National Anti-Courrption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) of their independence, making them report to the Prosecutor General, who he appointed.

Let’s be clear, corruption is and has been a hugely totemic issue in Ukraine, right back to the onset of the Maidan protests in late 2013. During my visits to Ukraine, while posted to Russia, it was absolutely clear that young people believed tackling corruption to be a top priority for the government. This formed part of their desire for Ukraine to move towards European Union membership, for their country to integrate into a community more clearly governed by democracy and the rule of law.

Whether they might consider the European Union to be democratic today, as unelected Commission President Ursula von der Leyen centralises ever more powers, is another question. But that European and anti-corruption aspiration was very real back in 2013.

Yet scant progress has been made in tackling corruption since that time. In February 2015, one year after the heigh of the Maidan protests, the British Guardian newspaper published a long piece entitled ‘Welcome to Ukraine, the most corrupt country in Europe’. The Ukrainian Prime Minister, Arseny Yatseniuk, who had been personally selected by Victoria Nuland at the U.S. State Department, was forced to resign in April 2016 in the face of allegations of widespread corruption within his government.

In 2021, the European Court of Auditors produced a report entitled Reducing Grand Corruption in Ukraine: several EU initiatives, but still insufficient results. It defined Grand Corruption as ‘the abuse of high-level power that benefits the few, and causes serious and widespread harm to individuals and society’.

In January 2023, an article in the Hill remarked on the need to defeat corruption as Ukraine’s ‘other enemy’. Shortly after that article, a piece, again in the Guardian, discussed the challenges faced by the Head of Ukraine’s National Agency for Corruption Prevention (NACP), which works closely with the now de-clawed NABU and SAPO.

That report in particular talked about specific examples of corruption in President Zelensky’s inner circle. Occasionally, Zelensky has purged his cabinet, to show his commitment to governmental reform, for example, sacking his former Defence Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, in the face of widespread accusations that the Ukrainian Defence Ministry was siphoning off foreign donations on an industrial scale. But the occasional show trial has never taken the whiff away that Zelensky’s administration is every bit as corrupt as those that preceded it.

And President Zelensky was voted into office in 2019 on a platform to eradicate corruption in Ukraine. In truth, he has done nothing to tackle it.

Rather, the war has grown levels of corruption to a new and more disgusting level. Money for infrastructure projects has been siphoned off, weapons’ orders have been falsified with officials skimming the profits. You’ll see as many hypercars tooling round Kyiv as might be witnessed at the Monaco Grand Prix. Want to get out of enlistment? We can make an arrangement for the right money. Need to cross the border? Just hand over the cash.

This has prompted the mother of all holy shit moments, in which European politicians are quickly waking up to the fact that their hero is just a flawed human like everyone else. They may be starting to worry about how they will account for and continue to justify the billions that western nations are still pumping into Ukraine? Two thirds of Ukrainian state expenditure is effectively paid for by us, non-Ukrainian citizens, through the donations of western governments.

Yet Ukraine has got more corrupt, Zelensky has extended the war to cling to personal power. And now it appears that he is undermining independent anti-corruption agencies, in part to prevent them from finding the skeletons in the closets.

More broadly, Zelensky has also clamped down on those who oppose his increasingly authoritarian rule, sanctioning former President Petro Poroshenko for ‘high treason’ in February and high-profile former adviser and critic, Oleksiy Arestovych on 1 May. The sanctions impose assets freezes, revocation of state awards, trade restrictions and a ban on using media distribution within Ukraine. These moves appear intended to expropriate the money of oppositionists and prevent them from having a say and receiving a hearing by the voters of Ukraine.

So far this year, over 80 Ukrainian individuals and a similar number of entities have been sanctioned in this way. How many more will follow the same path after this legislative putsch on the anti-corruption bodies?

This was always going to happen in Ukraine. Realism requires an honest and sceptical view of the human condition that sees people for who they really are. Politics is a deeply corrupting business and no-one is immune from the temptation. Neo-liberals who could never conceive of the possibility of this happening with Zelensky are simply naïve.

The challenge, politically for leaders in Europe, is to explain this to their own voters and not appear like they have been duped. War against Russia has been held aloft by slogans such as supporting the good guys against the bad guys. Europeans haven’t had to die to fight the war. But they have been made poorer. And now our warrior in chief Zelensky appears at least as bad as the Russians, if not worse. I suspect the support for the continue European funding of a proxy war in Ukraine will start very quickly to bleed away. The longer-term parliamentary consequences for mainstream political parties in Europe could be even more devastating.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... o-to-zero/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Jul 26, 2025 11:58 am

Weapons for war, benefits for the United States
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 07/26/2025

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Contrary to expectations, the main event shaping the political landscape of the war between Russia and Ukraine this week has not been the developments on the front lines, nor the poor results of the third round of talks between the two countries, a repetition of the previous two in terms of agenda, agreements, and disagreements, in which it was clear that Donald Trump's 50-day ultimatum has not changed Russia's strategy. The week has been marked by the first demonstrations against Volodymyr Zelensky since the Russian invasion in February 2022. The liberal sector linked to the foreign-funded NGO sector has seen the issue of corruption as the cause to cling to in order to mount an acceptable opposition against the hated Zelensky, who, thanks to decisions like this week's, has been knocked off the pedestal to which the press elevated him in 2022. The Ukrainian presidency's main constituency, its foreign partners, has also reacted to the heat of the demonstrations. Zelensky, who could not afford to clash with a portion of the population, especially those essential to ensuring the financing and sustainability of the state, quickly reversed course and next week will have the Rada vote on a bill opposing the one he had approved this week. The hope is that this will be enough to satisfy at least Ukraine's European allies, Ukraine's main suppliers even before the United States decided that proxy warfare was a good way to obtain economic benefits.

“Biden gave $350 billion in cash or military equipment. The Ukrainians were supposed to buy their own equipment. But I have a feeling they didn't spend all the money on equipment,” Donald Trump insisted again this week, wondering if it will ever be known what Ukraine did with those weapons funds that exist only in the US president's head. In addition to clinging to an erroneous figure, the US president again insisted that the United States has contributed more than European countries to the Ukrainian war effort. According to the latest update of the Kiel Institute's tracking system , the combined US contribution of humanitarian, financial, and military assistance to Ukraine amounts to €118.99 billion ($139.33 billion), with military-specific items representing €65.58 billion, significantly lower than the €89.69 billion spent on military expenditure by European Union countries (plus the British contribution of €20.08 billion). In total, the European Union, its institutions, and member states have contributed €202.06 billion to the defense and maintenance of the Ukrainian state, €83.07 billion more than the total US contribution. In the three different items analyzed by the tracking system —humanitarian, financial, and military assistance—European countries far exceed US spending, a fact that increases over time.

The falsified but constantly repeated data is sufficient argument for Donald Trump, aware of the importance that the European Union and the United Kingdom have given to the war in Ukraine, to know that he has absolute control in the negotiations with the European countries, which for months have sought a way to maintain Washington's involvement in military supplies. "They're going to spend the money in the United States, in our defense companies, and we'll send them [the weapons], and they'll distribute the equipment we send them. Honestly, this should have happened three years ago," Trump stated in his announcement of the latest agreement between European countries and his administration to ensure that this war continues without shortages of weapons and funding. Born as a joint effort in a proxy war in which allies on both sides of the Atlantic were interested, the mechanism for delivering arms to Ukraine will remain the same, with the weapons routed from the United States to Europe and then to the Ukrainian front, although now the cost will be borne exclusively by European countries.

This formula represents a win-win situation for Donald Trump, who is applying to European countries what he failed to impose on Mexico: that they pay for the wall he was going to build on their shared border. In February 2022, European countries—not only EU members, but also the United Kingdom—decided that their fate was tied to that of the United States. During this time, in addition to preparing for the day after the war with a continent split in two and in which political and economic relations cannot be normalized for decades, European countries have alienated China by always siding with the United States in its disputes, and even more so the countries around it in what Brussels insists on calling the southern front . Isolated from the rest of the world , Europe can only do whatever is necessary to maintain the alliance with its North American partner, which is interested in international relations based on its economic benefit.

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As the chart published by the Financial Times based on data from the Kiel Institute shows, European countries have now become the main suppliers of Ukrainian defense. After three years in which military contributions were similar—and to which must be added non-military contributions, much higher in the European case before Donald Trump came to power and even more so now—the imbalance between European and US contributions is currently striking. It is also relevant that military assistance, already reduced to the remaining funds from the allocation inherited from the Biden era, is the only financial contribution the United States has made in 2025. The current White House, which has abandoned all aspirations for soft power in favor of hard power, has not even contributed funding for humanitarian assistance.

The continuation of this funding will be necessary for the acquisition of the large quantities of weapons Ukraine wishes to receive, including seven more Patriot systems, but also to cover Zelensky's new wish for European partners: a pay raise for Ukrainian soldiers. "Our soldiers can be the weapon that protects everyone," he once stated. The argument is to present the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a guarantee of security for the continent, although the reality is more linked to the growing difficulties of mobilization and the need to give men of military age incentives to enlist in the army rather than flee from agents seeking to mobilize them or support Russian bombings of recruitment office buildings. The use of force is no longer sufficient, and Ukraine is beginning to realize that it must adopt a strategy similar to the one that has prevented mobilization in Russia since the fall of 2022: offering potential recruits financial incentives or prospects for social advancement. Until now, Ukraine has attempted to attract a population younger than military age by offering slightly higher salaries and promising future prospects, which don't mean much when life expectancy in the trenches is as low as it is today.

“Although compulsory military service only applies to men between the ages of 25 and 60, Ukraine has begun experimenting with a program to mobilize young men between 18 and 24 with one-year contracts in exchange for significant bonuses and travel permits. It has barely gained traction. Syrsky stated that a recent survey evaluating the initiative found that, for more than half of those surveyed, ‘the motivation is to earn more money,’” The Washington Post writes this week in a report on the current head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which openly admits the failure of the initiatives that have taken place so far. Zelensky aims to offer better economic conditions to all soldiers, who, as with weapons, are essential to be able to continue fighting with guarantees. The lack of personnel has always been a much more complex problem for Ukraine, and Zelensky aims to solve it by following Donald Trump's example: if problems are solved with money, let European countries foot the bill.

Lack of personnel and fatigue due to the lack of relief are among the main factors in the difficulties Ukraine is experiencing on the most important front in this war, the Donbass. With the Russian advance south of the Donetsk region and Ukraine already defeated there, there are two key points in this sector: stabilizing the defense around Konstantinovka to prevent the possibility of a Russian advance toward the large urban agglomeration of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, and attempting to maintain control of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, the most sensitive point on the fortified front.

“They're not making progress. It's very difficult for our guys. And it's difficult everywhere. It's also very difficult for the Russians, which is good for us,” Volodymyr Zelensky stated yesterday, denying what even his military authorities and bloggers linked to the Ministry of Defense admit. “The Russians don't want to fight. Except for their leaders. And it shows,” he added, describing the situation of his own army more than that of his enemy. “They are more numerous. The pressure is greater. The mobilization is greater. Therefore, the risks for us are greater. They are trying to break through with all their might. But they haven't achieved significant results,” he concluded.

Despite Zelensky's words, Russia has recently achieved significant success in its attempt to encircle the two cities from the northeast, putting even greater pressure on the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as, until now, progress had been primarily made in the south. For several weeks, one of the most targeted targets by Russian artillery and drones has been the town of Dobropilia, until not so long ago a secure location in the Ukrainian rear. The fact that Ukraine yesterday ordered the evacuation of families with elderly or minors from both Dobropolia and the surrounding towns is an indicator of how complicated the situation has become for Ukraine on this side of the front. Although it has lost some of its value as a logistical and communications hub between the eastern and southern fronts now that Russian advances have reduced the battle to the sector north of Donetsk, Ukraine, which has made Pokrovsk a key element of its rhetoric of resistance, cannot afford to give up on its defense.

Demonstrating defensive capabilities and continuing to inflict Russian casualties—always overestimated, with Ukrainian losses never mentioned—is an essential task for Ukraine, as is maintaining the anti-corruption structures created by and for Western countries. In both cases, the message is not directed at the population, but at the foreign partners who must finance the state and the army.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/26/armas ... os-unidos/

Google Translator

*****

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Any military encroachment on the Kaliningrad region will be met with an immediate and crushing response using all of Russia's forces and means, as provided for by the military doctrine and the principles of state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence (c) Patrushev

Of course, in the event of a NATO attack on the Kaliningrad region, any response other than a nuclear one will not be sufficient, since the Russian group in the Kaliningrad region can be easily isolated and cut off from air and sea supplies, as well as attacked from various directions. Therefore, the West should not have the slightest doubt that Russia will use tactical and strategic nuclear weapons against NATO countries in an attack on Kaliningrad. The lack of such confidence in NATO countries will lead to an increase in the risks of an attack on the Kaliningrad region, within the framework of schizo-theories that Russia will wage an exclusively conventional war in the event of an attack on its territory by NATO ground forces.

***

Colonelcassad
Over the past night, air defense systems on duty destroyed and intercepted 54 Ukrainian fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles:

24 over the Bryansk region,
12 over the Rostov region,
6 over the Republic of Crimea,
4 over the Azov Sea,
3 over the Black Sea,
2 over the Oryol region,
2 over the Tula region, and
1 over the Belgorod region.

Two people died when a UAV attacked a car in the Zimovnikovsky district of the Rostov region. In the Chukarinsky farm in the Rostov region, the power supply to several private houses was disrupted due to the fall of the UAV. The roof and facade of one of the houses were damaged, windows were knocked out, and outbuildings were damaged.

***

Colonelcassad
Forwarded from
Readovka
Our fighters not only entered Pokrovsk (and did so a couple of days ago), but are also advancing inside it — what is happening in the city today

Today, various news agencies and Telegram channels are reporting that the Russian Armed Forces have entered Pokrovsk — this is indeed true, but it happened a couple of days ago, as Readovka wrote in its analytical report. And what is happening now in one of the last "fortresses" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass?

After a successful breakthrough to Zashchitnikov Ukrainy Street and from the village of Zverevo, the Russian Armed Forces continue to develop a successful offensive — Russian advanced assault units are breaking through into the city. Until recently, such news could be perceived as fantasy . But after a video appeared with a Russian advanced unit (it turned out that it was not a sabotage and reconnaissance group) and shelling of an enemy vehicle from close range, it became clear that our guys are already in the city. Due to how quickly the situation is developing, it is difficult to accurately determine the current boundaries of the Russian Armed Forces' breakthrough into the city. However, given previous reports from enemy sources that the enemy simply “has no infantry left” in the area of the villages of Zverevo and Pervoe Maya, it can be said that the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has worsened even more. The shortage of forces on the front line means that they are not available for echeloning the defense or forming a stable front line within the city, which requires an order of magnitude more personnel than fighting in rural areas. And given the potential depth of the Russian Armed Forces’ breakthrough into Pokrovsk, the interaction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces both inside and on the outskirts of the city has been seriously disrupted. Therefore, it will be extremely difficult for Kiev to restore the defense. The situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Pokrovsk is becoming completely uncontrollable, if it has not already become so. A breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces deep into Pokrovsk may mean that our assault units are heading to join up with units of the 51st Army in the area of the city of Rodinske. It is quite possible that our command could organize a very ambitious operation to encircle all Ukrainian forces both in the east of Pokrovsk and in Mirnograd.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – July 25th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 25, 2025

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The title box reads: Operational-Tactical Area: Donetsk Direction

For the second day now, interesting news has been coming from the Russian city of Krasnoarmeysk (formerly Pokrovsk). The enemy's information channels are overheating from their own intensity, flooding themselves with a mix of propaganda and disinformation.

Russian reconnaissance groups are operating freely in the territory of Krasnoarmeysk (formerly Pokrovsk). After the liberation of Zverevo from the south, reconnaissance and assault units began infiltrating urban districts and have been spotted in the city center. Ukrainian propaganda hints that they will be surrounded, blockaded, and starved out. No, svidomye*—they will take your food, your weapons, and (if you don’t run) your lives. Airborne Forces commander V.F. Margelov taught: "When going behind enemy lines, take less food and more ammo. The one with a loaded rifle will always find food."

It is quite likely that, using infiltration tactics (taking advantage of personnel shortages in AFU units), our fighters will push deeper into built-up areas, set up caches, and prepare assault groups, accumulating personnel and weapons—until, when ready, gunfire erupts simultaneously across multiple districts of the city.

Urban terrain is an excellent place for defenders. But for scouts and saboteurs, it’s home.

The enemy may try to reinforce city units with reserves pulled from forward positions. And immediately, our assault units will begin advancing on the weakened sectors.

In the near future, by observing the areas where our units are active, we will see and understand how the enemy intends to act. On this section of the front, the fog of war grows clearer the fewer options the AFU has left.

*Svidomye translated literally to "the conscious ones," something that Ukrainian nationalists refer to themselves as. Here, it is being used sarcastically.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -july-25th

******

Crisis in Krasnoarmeyskaya agglomeration. 07/25/2025
July 25, 21:09

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The enemy reports a sharp deterioration of the situation in Krasnoarmeysk, Dimitrov (Mirnograd) and north of the Krasnoarmeyskaya agglomeration. Despite all efforts, it is not possible to stop the offensive of the northern pincer of the Russian Armed Forces, and after the loss of Novoekonomichesky, the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has only worsened, which, coupled with the penetration of Russian sabotage and assault groups into the cities themselves, leads to an increase in the disorganization of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense. It is premature to talk about its complete collapse, but crisis trends are constantly growing.

There is no operational encirclement yet, but with further advancement of the northern pincer, the area of action of the Russian Armed Forces drones will steadily creep up on two key roads for the Ukrainian Armed Forces leading northwest from the agglomeration.

It can be expected that the enemy will soon try to transfer additional reserves to conduct pinning counterattacks on the flanks in order to slow down the pace of the Russian troops' advance, and will also try to stabilize the situation in the city by transferring reinforced groups of GUR special forces to the city.

P.S. In addition to Novoekonomichesky, Zverevo was also liberated today.

* * *

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Pokrovskoe direction ( https://t.me/z_arhiv/32121 ): units of the Russian Armed Forces organized a breakthrough in the Zverevo-Pershe Travnya-Troyanda section and entered the city of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), occupying several streets and approaching the railway. Currently, battles for the capture of the southern part of the city are continuing, the main line of defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units has been broken through and, as of now, the enemy is urgently trying to request reserves to stop the breakthrough.

This situation arose due to several favorable factors:
1. The Russian Armed Forces units did not conduct particularly large offensive actions in the area, which allowed them to accumulate the necessary forces for the breakthrough, analyze the enemy's existing line of defense and identify weak areas. At this time, the enemy relaxed a little, which played an important role in the subsequent delay of units and the organization of offensive actions (A similar situation already occurred in the Kursk direction in winter, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine, sensing permissiveness and the lack of active actions on the part of the Russian Armed Forces, even tried to carry out a couple of local offensives that ended in nothing, and at this time, units of the Russian Armed Forces were on the home stretch before the implementation of the legendary Operation Stream).
2. Russian units pulled sabotage and reconnaissance groups into the city, which made it possible to prepare the necessary ground for the offensive and also to identify weak spots in the enemy's defense. Reports of the actions of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups regularly surfaced in Ukrainian sources, and recently we saw visual confirmation of these words in the form of footage of an ambush on an enemy pickup truck on one of the streets and the subsequent finishing off of the pickup using an FPV drone.
3. The enemy lost control of the situation online as a result of a massive failure of the Starlink satellite communication systems - online broadcasts from the LBS stopped working and the Ukrainian Armed Forces commanders responsible for the defense of the entire area were unable to assess the situation that was actually happening, which was taken advantage of by the units of the Russian Armed Forces that had alternative communication systems in the area (which I wrote about last night ( https://t.me/project_nd/51) ). The surprise factor, coupled with the disabled capabilities for observing the battlefield, contributed to this result.

Now the battles continue, we don't run ahead of the locomotive and wait for good news.

t.me/project_nd - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9974580.html

Google Translator

******

Zelensky 'Rolls Back' Anti-Corruption Changes Amidst Pressure, But the Mob's Ire Not Yet Slaked
Jul 25, 2025

Today, Zelensky reportedly backed off on his hostile takeover of ‘Ukrainian’ corruption agencies by submitting a new amended bill that alleges to return “independence” to them. But there are a few problems.

Firstly, the Verkhovna Rada conveniently broke for weeks long recess right after signing the previous bill several days ago, so it remains to be seen what the point of Zelensky’s rapid revisions are if they cannot be ratified by the Rada any time soon. Could be a stalling tactic, but we’ll have to see.

Secondly, it’s still murky what precisely Zelensky changed that is supposed to guarantee the ‘independence’ of the SAPO and NABU agencies. From the little information I could gather so far on it, it appears to restore independence by undoing the previously mandated ‘subordination’ of these agencies to Ukraine’s prosecutor general.

However, digging a little deeper, it appears Zelensky may have simply snuck in some other backdoor Trojans of control into the agencies with this revision. For instance, sources list a new internal “oversight unit” within these agencies, which would operate under “methodologies approved of by the SBU”.

We can only guess at what this means, precisely, but it also specifies as to give the SBU the ability to conduct lie detector tests on agency members. In short, these measures could give Zelensky the ability to still remove unwanted or overstepping agents—i.e. those that might presume to investigate Zelensky’s own crimes, or those of his inner circle—by way of these ‘internal oversight bodies’ with apparent ties to the SBU. In that way, the agencies may maintain an ‘independent’ facade on the surface, but still allow Zelensky subtle levers of control to ensure they are never used as tools of coercion against him and his clique.

That said, both agencies reportedly approved of the changes, according to Ukrinform:

Both NABU and SAPO have expressed support for the bill, stating that it restores all guarantees of independence for both institutions.

"Bill No. 13533, submitted by the President of Ukraine as urgent, restores all procedural powers and guarantees the independence of NABU and SAPO," the agencies said in a joint statement.


The question is, has the damage already been done? People are still protesting, the online crowd is still up in arms against Zelensky, and Western rags continue to pump out calls for removal:

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/0 ... f-ukraine/

Despite his ‘correction’, Zelensky has still worn out his welcome to many people. A sampling of the online sentiment shows that many Ukrainians believe even with this apparent turnabout, Zelensky has still “revealed his true face” by even attempting to ‘subvert’ or ‘undermine’ the suddenly-‘crucial’ anti-corruption agencies.

Protests continued tonight: (Video at link.)

As such, many people are unforgiving and no longer sympathetic to their erstwhile-beloved wartime leader. The Telegraph piece above, for instance, lists a litany of grievances: from Zelensky’s repressions against opponents, to shuttering of opposition media and businesses, to protection from prosecution of ‘senior cabinet members’ favored by Zelensky himself. It’s like a bad breakup where all the accumulated grievances finally start frothing to the surface.

For their part, the EU politburo released a “cautious” statement that expresses approval for steps taken ‘so far’ in ameliorating the situation, but shows that the EU is not yet fully convinced of Zelensky’s sincerity:

The EU acknowledged Ukraine’s efforts to address the concerns raised but explicitly stated the need for real, tangible steps to ensure the independence of its anti-corruption institutions: the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP).

Remember, subservience to the EU dictatorship must be total and unequivocal.


Let’s briefly cover the frontline advances we didn’t get to last time.

Russian forces have continued to make gains on the western Zaporozhye front, past the newly-captured Kamyanske:

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As can be seen, they expanded further north and east to stiffen the line, as well as passed through half of the next town up of Plavni.

Slightly east of there, they made a little headway through Mala Tokmachka, while capturing more fields just south of it to cover the flanks of the advance through the city:

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Footage emerged of the Russian 70th Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division taking the eastern part of Mala Tokmachka: (Video at link.)

Just the battle footage here: (Video at link.)

You can see one BMP hit but still able to drop off its men at the target and retreat. Geolocation of the footage above:

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On the Velyka Novosilka line, virtually everything was expanded with new captures to flatten the entire front:

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In particular, most of Voskresenka was captured, as well as areas just north and south of it. Most of Novokhatske to the north and areas around Tolstoi were taken, with Zeleniy Hai already under siege with its outskirts captured:

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Above you can see Dachne was also finished off and areas around it captured to bolster the flanks.

The most interesting developments occurred just north of there in the embattled Pokrovsk zone.

First, Russian DRGs have already been confirmed as operating deep inside the city, wreaking total havoc on Ukrainian communications and rear lines. AFU units complain of a big uptick in friendly fire as they skittishly react to every sight and sound.

The video which made the rounds several days ago and began the big infiltration scare was the following—showing a Ukrainian unit deep inside Pokrovsk getting ambushed while driving down the road: (Video at link.)

Geolocation of the ambush from Ukraine’s Deep State:

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Another unconfirmed video emerged showing Russian troops reportedly even deeper in Pokrovsk, speaking with a liberated civilian—a geolocation is even given.

A top Ukrainian military officer channel writes the following:

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One of the things the situation also denotes is that Pokrovsk no longer even has a fully-fledged defense, and is to some extents a gray zone where Russian DRGs or Spetsnaz are already able to operate freely. Of course, some Ukrainian channels continue to claim these DRGs are being constantly “destroyed”, yet up to now, they have only been able to post a single inconclusive photo of just one eliminated ‘Russian soldier’.

As of this writing, the absolute latest update claims that Russian forces captured both Leontovychi and Troyanda, and have already begun entering the outskirts of Pokrovsk proper in force:

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We’ll have to wait and see if this holds, but if it does, this is obviously a massive development that could mean the end of Pokrovsk has begun.

What helped facilitate these successes was the other big success on Pokrovsk’s northern side. The day before yesterday Russian forces broke through in the areas circled in red, according to some sources cutting the key highway leading out of Nove Shakhove, or at minimum placing it under drone fire control:

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Some sources even now claim Novoekonomichne has been fully captured and Russian forces are entering the outskirts of Mirnograd. Information is particularly volatile at the moment because things are so in flux, so take everything with a grain of salt until real confirmations are made.

From one top Russian military channel:

Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction Units of the “Center” Grouping, after taking Novoekonomicheskoye, have entered Mirnograd (Dimitrov) from the east and south.

It can be stated that Russian forces have now begun the assault on Mirnograd as well.

In Pokrovsk, Kiev forces are setting up defenses directly inside the city, especially in the area of high-rise buildings. They’ve even dragged in “dragon’s teeth” fortifications.

The situation in the city is highly dynamic. Kiev forces don’t fully understand which areas are under Russian control, which sometimes leads to incidents of “friendly fire”.

Russian units are attacking enemy positions on the western outskirts near the T-0406 highway. Pershe Travnya (Leontovichi), among other areas, is being worked on by Russian units. Fighting has begun on the eastern outskirts of Krasny Liman, and continues near the Krasnolimanskaya mine, Suvorovo, Nikanorovka, and Shakhovo. Russian forces are also advancing toward Belitskoye.


Interestingly, just as this happened, a mandatory emergency evacuation was announced for a batch of cities just to Pokrovsk’s north:

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I guess one can say this doesn’t exactly bode well for Ukraine in this area.

There were other advances around Konstantinovka—particularly, the capture of Bila Hora—as well as Kupyansk region. For instance, from a Ukrainian source:

⚡️ Ukrainian military officer Bunyatov reports that Russian forces have entered Torske on the Lyman direction and are attempting to encircle the Ukrainian Armed Forces units

"The enemy has infiltrated Torske and taken up a defensive position surrounded – such actions contribute to destabilizing our defense and the enemy's advance in this direction. There is also an advancement resembling an 'appendicitis' southeastward, thus the enemy is trying to implement a plan to 'outline' the encirclement on the flanks of Torske," Bunyatov laments.


But we’ll leave it here for now as it’s better not to distract from the escalating Pokrovsk showdown which will likely become the main focus soon.



Let’s turn to a few last updates:

Russian and Ukrainian delegations met again in Istanbul. This time the meeting seemed even more trivial, reportedly lasting only half an hour and achieving nothing more than another prisoner exchange. Both sides are as entrenched as ever in their positions, and there is no progress whatsoever on any imagined ‘compromises’ for ending the war. Russian negotiator Medinsky in fact evoked WWII in stating that no matter how many sanctions Russia endured from 1920 onward, it still managed to fight WWII for years and was victorious in the end.

As for the exchanges, the Ukrainian side is said to have virtually no Russian prisoners left to exchange as rumors persist that Ukraine continues to offer Russia everything from captured civilians, to political prisoners, to dug up WWII bodies in exchange for Ukrainian POWs. Meanwhile, Ukrainian sources themselves confirm Russia still has over 8,000 AFU troops in detention:

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https://united24media.com/war-in-ukrain ... -them-7655


Belousov oversees the introduction of a new tactical communications and situational awareness system for commanders, though it’s not specified which one precisely it is: (Video at link.)

Meanwhile Russian teams show off a DIY new EW system to intercept drone signals. Whacky as it may look, they demonstrate it functioning on a sample drone: (Video at link.)



Spiegel confirms reports that the Patriots Trump had promised cannot even begin delivery until 2026, and most not until much later than that:

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Meanwhile German Defense Minister Pistorius likewise confirms that he is completely baffled by Trump’s promises on Germany’s behalf, and has no clue what is supposed to have been sent to Ukraine: (Video at link.)

As suspected, it turns out Trump was merely making things up on the fly as he’s wont to do, and other minions and vassals are forced to do ‘clean up’ work afterwards in attempt to fulfill his empty boasts or groundless promises.



Speaking of supplies and ammo, Syrsky told WaPo that Ukraine is again running low on 155mm shells, contradicting recent sentiments that Ukraine has finally achieved some kind of “parity” with Russian artillery capabilities:

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... war-trump/
By the way, the above article highlights the grotesque disingenuousness of Western reporting on Russian-Ukrainian casualties. They constantly lecture us that Russia must be taking heavier casualties than Ukraine because Russia is always on the offensive. Yet Syrsky states with a straight face that Ukraine took less casualties than Russia during its Kursk incursion, which WaPo does not bother to question at all, despite the farcical nature of the lie:

The Kursk occupation ultimately killed or wounded at least 80,000 Russian troops, Syrsky said. He declined to disclose Ukrainian casualties there but said they were significantly fewer than Russia’s.

What a joke—both the claim and WaPo as a legitimate ‘publication’.



Zaluzhny also made interesting statements in a new interview, including that since late 2023, Russia has shifted fully to an attritional style warfare, and that in his view the war may now last until 2034: (Video at link.)

‼️🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine has entered a new phase: The war could last until 2034, - former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ambassador to Britain Zaluzhny

➖"Ukraine has entered a new phase. If we only try to achieve a ceasefire without forming our defense for the future, it will last a long, long time. It started in 2014, and God willing, it will end in 2034," Zaluzhny said.

▪️He noted that the "old" war ended at the end of 2023, and now Russia is using a tactic of positional attrition - not to advance, but to destroy the Ukrainian army.

▪️At the same time, he believes that neither Ukraine nor Russia has enough people for such a war.

RVvoenkor


He mentions carrying out systematic defenses, here’s a new video of one of the big defensive lines said to be under construction along the Dnipropetrovsk border and beyond. One can see how primitive labor is being used, but that the scale of the anti-tank ditches is growing nonetheless:
(Video at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zel ... corruption

******

No more maidans

NABU has fallen, dozens must protest. Nationalists indifferent to the fate of Democracy. The failure of Gene Sharp Tech. Neoliberalism, neo-colonialism, ruthless operators. Peace?
Events in Ukraine
Jul 23, 2025

There are decades where weeks happen, and weeks where decades happen. To be fair, in Ukraine, there’s no shortage of earth-shattering events every year, let alone decade.

Sometimes, this leads one to suspect that in fact, the more things change, the more things stay the same. The more revolutions, the stronger the corrupt deep state against which they rose up…

But this past week has certainly been momentous. The events just don’t stop coming.

Last week, I wrote about Zelensky’s mobilization of several prominent ‘anti-corruption activists’ (also known as ‘Sorosites’ due to their reliance on funding from the Open Society/Renaissance Foundation).

And today, Zelensky pushed through parliament and signed into action new legislation putting NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine) and SAPO (Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office) - the key ‘anti-corruption organs’ of the country - under direct government supervision.

This came after a spate of raids on July 21 by the Zelensky-controlled Security Services of Ukraine (SBU), which proclaimed that top NABU and SAPO officials were actually Russian agents.

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The SBU enjoys posting photos of its humiliated victims. Here a NABU official is pictured, Ruslan Magomegrasulov

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The SBU triumphantly shared photos of Russian roubles and Russian passports in the NABU official’s possession. I wrote about other government claims that NABU is full of Russian agents here.

Set up in 2015 on the demand and funding of the US and EU, interference in their activities by the Ukrainian government was always prevented by the ‘western partners’. Until now.

Ukrainian liberals are taking to the streets to protest against Zelensky and his coterie, claiming that they’ve ‘destroyed the gains of the euromaidan revolution’.

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Through their media, the liberals yell about how Zelensky is a second Yanukovych, who will also be forced to flee the country, faced with a popular uprising. All the usual (formerly) USAID-funded suspects are fuming with rages.

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Western media is bristling with articles about the sinister strengthening of ‘corrupt authoritarianism’ under Zelensky.

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And finally, plenty of alternative media figures are predicting that Zelensky will soon be toppled from power. A new maidan, a CIA-MI6 regime change operation, and so on.

As for me, I think nothing will happen.

More precisely, I don’t think the current protests will lead to anything. The future lasts a long time, and Zelensky’s crackdown on the Sorosites is certainly potent with possibilities.

Lots of topics todays:

Why the current protests are actually nothing like the euromaidan regime change of 2013-4

Why Ukraine’s nationalists are unenthusiastic about the protests, and the failure of Gene Sharp Techⓒ

Why Washington and Europe aren’t going to stop Zelensky’s war on democracy

The power-hungry bureaucrats loyal to Zelensky that the liberals and the west accuse of being FSB agents

The neoliberal, neocolonial function the anti-corruption organs always performed

Finally, some tantalizing speculations on what all this might have to do with the possibility of an end to the war in Ukraine.

2014 and 2025
Let’s first of all take a trip back in time to late 2013 and early 2014, when the euromaidan movement swept the government out of power. Comparisons of current anti-Zelensky protests to euromaidan are wrong for several reasons.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/no-more-maidans

******

FT hit job on Zelensky is a clue as to Trump’s thinking

Martin Jay

July 25, 2025

The all-out hit piece on Zelensky the Financial Times should indicate that something is about to happen in Ukraine

It’s finally happened. After months of pundits wondering when would the moment come when western media would finally take a clear and decisive stand against Ukraine’s venal president, it has finally happened – and by the most ardent pro-EU broadsheet to note. The all-out hit piece on Zelensky recently by the Financial Times should indicate that something is about to happen in Ukraine and it will probably involve the president either having his own Ceausescu moment or simply fleeing the country. How long has he got?

Legacy media always likes to be on the right side of history and for the FT to come out like this with the piece that they’ve written must be ominous. It was published at the same time as the British conservative political chronicle The Spectator did much the same thing. Timing seems to be worth noting given that a few days beforehand unconfirmed ‘reports’ on social media were claiming that Trump had indicated to Zelensky that he needs to step down with even suggestions of who would take his role. It also comes amidst a series of reports which show that Zelensky’s panicking has reached an all-time high with the recent arrest of the of the anti-corruption activist Shabunin. Interestingly, that same day, ex-Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov was also targeted. In both raids at their homes, armed men showed no warrants and blocked lawyers from attending the searches, it is claimed. The arrest of the anti-graft campaigner is significant as is the take of the FT itself: The article says: “A crackdown on the country’s most famous anti-corruption crusader can’t be happening without at least the silent approval from President Zelenskyy, if not active permission,” it explains.

The significance and timing of the FT piece should not be underestimated. It’s not simply that on the battlefield itself that the Russians are advancing and that it becomes more openly accepted that the Ukrainians simply don’t have the men to fight this war, but more about Zelensky himself who is beginning to be portrayed as a dictator now clinging onto power and using all of the vestiges of martial law to crack down on even the faintest trace of descent. Ukraine is now a totalitarian state with the level of Zelensky’s paranoia now starting to become widely known and discussed. The FT, one of those media giants which largely supported Zelensky and which barely considered elements of his brutal measures worth even reporting, such as the appalling murder of U.S. blogger Gonzalo Lira, is now reporting on even campaigners merely being roughed up by Zelensky’s henchmen – a considerable U-turn and worth noting the detail it goes into with its zeal. Indeed, it has been the FT which has chosen not to cover a number of stories since the beginning of the war which many would argue created a positive aura around Zelensky which can be noted even as recently as in May when a key opponent of Zelensky was assassinated in broad daylight by a gunman in front of the victim’s children’s school in Madrid. In this case, the murder of Andriy Portnov was covered, but he was portrayed as a criminal “wanted in Kiev for treason”.

The FT’s support of Zelensky is over, we can assume.

It noted that “Shabunin and Kubrakov labelled the recent raids as politically motivated, adding that the SBU had presented no court-issued warrants and would not allow time for their lawyers to be present for the searches”.

Vitaliy Shabunin even is quoted in the article as explaining what the stunt was supposed to achieve. He told the paper, “Zelenskyy is using my case to send a message to two groups that could pose a threat to him. The message is this: if I can go after Shabunin publicly — under the scrutiny of the media and despite public support — then I can go after any one of you”.

The FT goes even further in its analysis of the situation and could even be assessed of being a catalyst to a revolution in the making.

“This is a straight-up, Russian-style scenario of dividing society, which could lead to protests in the streets”, Oleksandra Ustinova MP was quoted in the piece as saying.

The author suggests that the West has little interest any more in keeping up any pretence up that Ukraine is some sort of western democratic country which has had to give up on some of its democratic tenets. This apathy, it claims, is responsible for Zelensky now pushing his authoritarian, brutal control to new levels.

A western diplomat in Kiev who has worked closely with Ukraine’s civil society said the cases of Shabunin and Kubrakov “aren’t isolated events”.

“There’s a sense inside Ukraine’s presidential office that the west and especially the U.S. has shifted its focus,” the diplomat said. “That rule of law and good governance no longer matter as much.” With U.S. attention elsewhere, Zelensky is testing how far he can go, the FT claims, but doesn’t say that this is because he is in his last days and believes he can stay in power if he cracks down even further against those who could potentially pose a threat to him or even question his strategy. The recent dispatch of anti-aircraft missiles from Trump is not expected to do anything as the gesture represents way too little, way too late for it to have any impact. The corner that Trump is backing himself into with this 50-day deadline with Putin is more likely going to result in the man child in the Oval office looking for an easy victim which can distract voters away from the real story of him having to back down from the outlandish threats he has made to Putin.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... -thinking/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Jul 27, 2025 12:31 pm

Wishes
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ July 27, 2025

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This strange week, marked by protests against Zelensky in defense of anti-corruption institutions imposed from abroad and used to exert political control, has also been a good reflection of the clash between realities and desires, which the different sides of the various conflicts converging in Ukraine have revealed, highlighting the remoteness of the various problems from being resolved. With his actions, submitting to Parliament a bill that guaranteed the wrath of supplier countries and the response of the civil society sector linked to the economic flows of organizations affiliated with them, Zelensky demonstrated his desire to limit external control of certain—not all, not even most—aspects of the functioning of the Ukrainian state. On this occasion, it was not enough to claim Russian interference , a common argument in internal disputes in Ukraine, as the other side used exactly the same argument.

In a routine that has been repeated since the Maidan victory, the SBU accused investigators and key members of the agency and the anti-corruption prosecutor's office of working for Russia, while protesters did the same with the Security Service of Ukraine, a way of suggesting that the government also has something to hide. Following the lead of the Georgian protests against the results of the last elections, they accused Zelensky of having passed a law that made Ukraine a country similar to Russia and added Russian infiltration in the SBU, a laughable allegation considering the closeness of the two Ukrainian secret services to the United Kingdom and the United States. Against the ropes, Zelensky's team needed a solution that combined restoring the measures demanded of him with making it appear that he had not backed down, thus trying to avoid an image of weakness. The new law that Parliament will vote on next week restores the independence of anti-corruption institutions —that is, their dependence on Western countries and their representatives in the country—but includes measures to ensure there is no Russian infiltration . With few possible measures to include to combat Russian interference that doesn't exist, Zelensky has clung to a discredited investigative technique, the polygraph, to impose the requirement that those suspected of having affinity for Russia or who have relatives in the neighboring country must periodically take this test.

Zelensky and Ermak's wishes have not been fulfilled, and the demonstrations have continued despite the government's clear defeat in this crude attempt to further consolidate its power and place at its disposal a series of institutions that have been used for political revenge between clans. "We have never engaged in political persecution," said Oleksandr Klimenko, head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, which Zelensky tried to place under the control of his Prosecutor General's Office. But to the allegations of cleaning up an institution that has not yielded significant results in the fight against corruption, the prosecutor added that "we will analyze all situations, events, statements, accusations, and complaints against us. Down to the last detail." It is difficult not to see in these comments a desire to hit back at the government, through deputies from the president's party and those of Yulia Tymoshenko, that has sought to deliver. Fear of reprisals is precisely one of the reasons why, according to the Financial Times , dozens of deputies from the presidential faction are threatening to refuse to support the new law. “People fear unfair prosecution in retaliation,” the outlet said, citing a “senior official in Zelensky’s parliamentary faction,” perhaps including David Arajamia, one of those named this week as a possible suspect by the anti-corruption agency.

The difficulties for Zelensky and his closest circle are not limited to the show of force by the liberal-nationalist opposition, which the government is quickly trying to shut down in the hope of refocusing on the discourse of unity and struggle against the external enemy, Russia, and the internal one, any type of opposition that is often also accused of being Russia. “The West should lift the moratorium on criticism of Ukraine,” states Evropeicheskaya Pravda , one of Ukraine’s most pro-European media outlets, in its Friday editorial, funded, as could not be otherwise, from abroad. In the text, which justifies the need to moderate criticism during the early stages of the war so as not to give Russia any ammunition and focus on defending the country, the outlet indicates that it “appeals to the embassies of Western countries and the governments of friendly European capitals to reconsider their approach,” that is, the explicit order not to criticize Zelensky that it claims to have received from Western embassies after the Russian invasion.

The attempt to suppress criticism is not limited to Western countries, which have only intervened against Zelensky when the president tried to strip them of some of his power, and have done so while avoiding media hype. Similar moves are also evident domestically. “Zelensky wants to silence all criticism,” says the editor of Ukrainska Pravda . “The presidency has also developed a plan to sanction Dragon Capital, the owner of Ukrainska Pravda , which could force it into a hostile takeover by the president's allies due to a lack of funds, European diplomatic sources told The Times ,” writes the London daily this week, one of the few that, during these weeks of media campaign against Andriy Ermak, had opened the pages of its influential outlet to give the Ukrainian president's right-hand man a platform to deliver his message.

The desire to return to the status quo prior to the outbreak of this week's protests seems complex, especially since Zelensky has made the mistake of irritating his European allies—possibly due to overconfidence—and will now have to live with the possibility of internal opposition, the main danger of which lies in his international connections. It is more likely that his wishes directly related to the war will be granted.

Although there has never been a risk that this conflict will run out of funding for the battle or weapons with which to fight it, the promised amount will never be enough for Ukraine, which is always ready to demand even more from its allies and suppliers. Just hours after the United States announced the sale of air defense and armored systems worth $322 million—armament destined for Ukraine and only the first of many to be produced in the coming months—Volodymyr Zelensky expanded his demands to $6 billion to increase the production of interceptor drones and $25 billion annually for the production of missiles and electronic warfare systems.

“To secure additional funding, the Ukrainian leader is working with US and European officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer,” The Kyiv Independent reported yesterday . The cost of Volodymyr Zelensky's wish list amounts to $65 billion annually, which would have to be borne by European countries. The Ukrainian president is confident that, as a central axis of the foreign policy of the European Union, NATO, and the United Kingdom, the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine is so important that its European allies will respond to the plea. All of them—the NATO Secretary General, the leaders of France and the United Kingdom, and the Ukrainian president—share the idea of massive rearmament of Ukraine, either for the continuation of the war or, in the unlikely event of a peace agreement or the more likely ceasefire, for an armed postwar period in which the conflict with Russia continues as a leading point in the continental dispute.

In this sense, Ukraine's desire is to force Russia to give in and accept, as the Turkish Foreign Minister claims he will soon hold, a four-way meeting between Presidents Erdoğan, Putin, Trump, and Zelensky. The desire is to reach an agreement that imposes a ceasefire from above and then work out the details. A Minsk option would consolidate the eternal conflict with no intention of reaching a definitive resolution, as it would entail a series of concessions that Ukraine is unwilling to make. As with everything else, Zelensky also depends on the support of his foreign partners to achieve this model of negotiation process.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/27/deseos/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
0:29
2:40
Ukrainian military blogger "Kiyanin" recently posted a resonant video criticizing the Ukrainian Armed Forces command, which systematically "cheats" relatives of missing and dead soldiers out of money, without paying them the benefits they are entitled to.

- Kiyanin noted that tens of thousands of people are currently protesting in Ukraine against the restriction of the independence of anti-corruption agencies, but at the same time, the rallies of relatives of servicemen remain in the shadows. In this regard, the blogger called on concerned Ukrainians to support the protest action, which will take place on August 2.

- Less than a day later, SBU agents found him, brutally beat him, forced him to delete the publication and record a "refutation", saying that the first video was made by "Russian tsipso", and Kiyanin himself is completely loyal to the regime and calls "not to rock the boat".

The Kiev junta is trying to prevent a rebellion by the military and their relatives, but by "tightening the screws" it is only bringing the inevitable end closer - after all, the Internet remembers everything, and a new scandal with the "silencing" of an inconvenient blogger will only add fuel to the fire of public discontent.

@yuzhny_front_ZOV

***

Colonelcassad
3:42
When "Ours" Are Worse Than the Enemy: A Ukrainian Soldier Who Shot His Brothers-in-Arms Came Out to Ours and Surrendered

The story of how the militant ended up at the front is painfully familiar to many Ukrainians. In the morning, on his way to work, he was caught by the TCC officers, processed, sent to the training ground, and then to his unit - a typical picture of the current Ukrainian "mobilization".
For several days, he sat at an observation post alone without food, water or communication. The command apparently simply forgot about him. When his patience ran out, he went to the second line, to his unit, where he met the group commander, the very one who was supposed to organize the rotation.
A quarrel began: accusations of cowardice, indifference, and that the officers were "sitting it out" while others died alone.
The argument ended in violence: The hero of the video opened fire on his commander and his cronies. He does not repent. According to him, if a commander is unable to lead people and treats soldiers as expendable material, he deserves a price to match.
In the end, he chose to surrender, realizing that even in captivity there is more humanity than in his own unit.
@btr80

***

Colonelcassad
In the evening, a number of our sources confirmed that the enemy was able to dislodge our troops from Kondratovka in the Sumy direction after weeks of attacks on the village. Despite the problems in Donbass flowing into problems in the Dnepropetrovsk region, the enemy is using part of its reserves for counterattacks in the Sumy direction.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – July 26th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 27, 2025
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports:

- “The Russian Defense Minister congratulated servicemen of the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade on liberating Zeleny Gai in the DPR;”

- “Units of the "East" Group successfully liberated Maliyevka in Dnepropetrovsk region through offensive operations;”


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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 30.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 30th, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.4.2025=Line of Combat Contact April 1st, 2025.

The deteriorating situation near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) has forced the Armed Forces of Ukraine to reinforce their urban garrison. With no strategic reserves available, the AFU can only maneuver existing units along the contact line.

These redeployments weaken Ukrainian forces through multiple effects:

First, security decreases as units become most vulnerable during movement;

Second, constant positional changes and marching stress physically and mentally exhaust personnel;

Third, combat readiness declines as troops must rapidly fortify new positions while establishing coordination and supply lines;

Fourth, overall defensive stability suffers as reinforcing critical sectors weakens other areas;

These cumulative effects are exacerbated by the inability to properly rotate or rest personnel.

Current developments clearly demonstrate the tactical planning of Russian command, showcasing flexible execution and well-coordinated operations between various military branches.

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.3.2025=Line of Combat Contact March 1st, 2025. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary. Граница областей=Oblast Border*.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine appear to have weakened their right flank by shifting troops to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), which our assault units - having prepared for several days - immediately exploited by advancing from their staging positions.

Zeleny Gai (48°04′06″N 36°39′07″E, ~900 residents) sits on the Volchya River's (Wolf River on the map) left bank, which forms the Russia-Ukraine border. Only one enemy stronghold remains in this sector - Iskra. Its liberation would restore Russia's border along the Volchya River to Aleksandrovgrad and Novoselovka settlements, achievable within 2-3 days after securing Maliyevka.

Maliyevka (47°55′22″N 36°37′21″E, ~150 residents) marks our assault troops' entry into Ukrainian territory. The next objective is Novoselovka, after which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will likely retreat beyond the Voronaya River.

Despite its strategically favorable position at the interfluve between four rivers, this AFU defensive node is rapidly collapsing under alternating Russian strikes from multiple directions.

We're nearly out of space on this map. Thanks to our defenders - we'll soon need to prepare new mapping materials for this expanding sector.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -july-26th

******

Recruitment to the 13th BARS
July 25, 23:00

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As part of information support for friends from the 13th BARS. They became widely known after the defense of Krasny Liman in the fall of 2022, which allowed them to stabilize the defense after the troops retreated from Balakleya and Izyum. They are looking for smart fighters.

The BARS-13 volunteer detachment continues to recruit volunteers to serve in our legendary detachment!

Age: men from 20 to 50 years old. Over 50 years old - by agreement. Military service is not required.

💥 The contract is optionally concluded for 6, 8 or 12 months with the possibility of early termination and without automatic extension.
💥 Monetary allowance from 205,000 to 279,000 rubles per month, depending on the position held.
💥 Fighters who have proven themselves are guaranteed career growth and an increase in pay.
💥 Registration for service in the detachment is carried out either through the military registration and enlistment office at the place of residence of the candidate, or through the military registration and enlistment office
of the city of Novocherkassk, Rostov Region, where a meeting and accompaniment by our representative takes place.
💥 Health and life insurance, guarantee of all social benefits, as well as guaranteed registration of a combat veteran certificate.
💥 Provision of modern uniforms and personal protective equipment.
💥 Own training center, training ground, qualified instructors.
💥 The detachment is provided with vehicles, weapons, electronic warfare equipment, UAVs and other means necessary to complete tasks.

Contact numbers of representatives of the BARS-13 detachment for questions about joining the detachment:

+7960-637-53-44 Sergey Nikolaevich
+7916-029-88-26 Eduard Vasilyevich
+7951-535-02-64 Roman Andreevich

The above representatives of the BARS-13 volunteer detachment will consult you on issues related to joining the detachment and will accompany your registration.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9974877.html

Chasov Yar. July 2025
July 26, 15:18

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View of Chasov Yar from an enemy drone. As of July 25, more than 85% of the city's ruins were under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. The enemy's main strongholds still remain in the southwestern part of Chasov Yar.
The liberation of Chasov Yar will open the way for the Russian army to Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka from the east.

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https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9975904.html

The situation is becoming critical
July 27, 11:07

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The enemy's whining about the situation in the Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov area.
Against the backdrop of the cocaine Fuhrer's lies about a "stable situation". Soon the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration will begin to become subsidized.

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In fact, by the end of July, the Russian Armed Forces had completed the semi-envelopment of the agglomeration. Control over Rodinskoye will be of critical importance; its loss could be a catastrophe for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

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To the south of the Krasnoarmeyskaya agglomeration, the Russian Armed Forces are already quite close to solving the problem of reaching the DPR border. There are literally a few settlements left.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9977529.html

Google Translator

******

Western missile technology in general, and air-defense systems in particular, are currently at least a decade behind Russia
July 26, 2025
By Will Schryver, Twitter, 7/19/25

Will Schryver is a geopolitical and military analyst.

As I have pondered these questions over the past few days, I have reached the conclusion that everyone in NATO militaries whose job it is to ascertain the FACTS of anti-ballistic missile performance (Patriot, THAAD, Arrow, SM-3) knows perfectly well that NONE of them have impressed, and the Patriot has been the worst of the bunch.

I understand that claims run from 50% – 95% success rate for Patriot PAC-3 interceptors against Russian Iskander and Kinzhal ballistic missiles.

That is entirely unsubstantiated nonsense.

I have not seen ANY persuasive evidence of those kinds of interception rates — neither in Ukraine nor in Israel.

We have seen multiple videos of US/Israeli systems frantically firing off a dozen or more interceptors, shortly followed by Russian or Iranian ballistic missiles streaking in to hit their targets.

Anyway, with that preface, my point is that western militaries have certainly seen this, and consequently they can’t really have much motivation to hold on tightly to their Patriot systems — especially if they can get a good price for them.

I think the only real problem they have now is a “political optics” issue. Everyone involved has to ACT as though it’s a big sacrifice to relinquish their super-duper fantastic Patriot systems to Ukraine.

You can bet the western arms industry marketers are dangling the “next wunderwaffe” to everyone concerned, and saying: “These new ABM systems we are ready to crank out are world-beating. So ship your rusty Patriots to Ukraine, and you’ll be first in line to receive the next big thing.”

I think western missile technology in general, and air-defense systems in particular, are currently at least a decade behind Russia. Fact is, they always have been. Since the 1950s.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/07/wes ... nd-russia/

******

War: sleeping on corpses

Military coup? New numbers: KIA, WIA, desertion, mobilization. Analysis of the northern and southern sections of the frontline
Events in Ukraine
Jul 26, 2025

Today we’ll be shifting from politics to its essence - war. First, a taste of the topics:

Motivation:

A soldier who’s been sitting for three months in a muddy trench, in a 1.5 by 1.5-meter dugout, sleeping on the corpses of his comrades and getting water delivered by drone — he’s not part of anyone’s agenda.

although drawing historical parallels is often unwise, I’m nearly certain that if soldiers start speaking openly about what they’re dealing with, the very existence of the state may come under threat.

The more videos I see of our soldiers being tortured, the more my idea of participating in the war turns into gratitude to our country for the opportunity to legally kill the rusnya by any means.


Numbers:

The estimated rate of losses, according to Western media sources (The Economist, WSJ, Spiegel), is 5–8 thousand per month. To this, one can add a similar number of severely wounded who are out of action for a long time or permanently. … monthly mobilization of 30,000 is very likely not happening regularly, and even 20,000 could be considered a relatively successful figure. ….the reported figure of 19,000 deserters or soldiers absent without leave is clearly underestimated.

Conservatively, one could assume that the army is shrinking by 10–15 thousand people each month… the actual fighting force holding the front is far smaller than the “paper” one-million figure. Realistically, it’s perhaps 400–500 thousand (with only a small portion deployed on the front lines). It may even be closer to 300 thousand. And at this rate, within two more years, there will be no one left at the front.


The frontlines:

I don’t see why we can ignore the cheapest and most effective form of struggle against enemy UAV. When will someone bear responsibility for this?

[newly-formed brigades with mobilized troops] just get fucked from every direction, no matter how many Abrams or Bradleys they have on paper.

the long frontline allows the enemy to carry out [distracting] actions almost along the entire line.

Due to a lack of reserves, these “fires” have to be extinguished selectively by deploying brigade forces that are already engaged in combat operations directly on the front line.


Finally, we’ll also see how a significant portion of frontline fighters, far from supporting the liberal student protests against Zelensky currently unfolding, would instead like to see these youth mobilized to the army.

Military coup?
To begin with, what do frontline soldiers have to say about the protests in major cities responding to Zelensky’s moves against the western-created anti-corruption organs (SAPO and NABU)? These protests have been dominated by students and women.

But in the city of Dnipro, located much closer to the frontlines than Kyiv, the protests against Zelensky’s attack on the anti-corruption organs contain more references to the army.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... on-corpses

******

Kiev kleptocracy… Stench of corruption fouls NATO regime’s endgame

July 25, 2025

The sewer gates are opening as the endgame approaches. It’s not just the Kiev cabal that will be swept away.

Previously, any observer who had pointed out the rampant corruption that is endemic in the Kiev regime was automatically denounced by Western governments and media as a peddler of Russian disinformation.

Hilariously, though, this week, the Kiev kleptocracy burst open in such a spectacular way that even the American and European apologists for the regime could no longer maintain the worst-kept secret of their charade.

The fiasco exploded after the self-appointed President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, passed a law that stripped two anti-corruption agencies of their independent powers.

Citizens took to the streets of Kiev and other cities in furious protest against what they openly lambasted as an autocratic regime trying to prolong its corrupt racketeering. The demonstrations were the largest seen on the streets of Ukraine despite the country being at war with Russia for over three years. As the Wall Street Journal reported: “The protests exposed long dormant divisions between the government and society.”

Zelensky, whose official presidential mandate expired last year, was stunned by the upsurge in public anger. By the end of the week, he was backtracking on the move to close the anti-graft agencies and was claiming, somewhat unconvincingly, that he was drafting a new bill to return the investigative powers. It was damage-limitation mode and largely prompted by the alarm of his Western backers.

It is not clear if the U-turn will appease the Ukrainian public, who appear to have reached a pivotal level of disgust with the Kiev regime, not just over its endemic corruption but also over the grinding war with Russia and forced mobilization of reluctant military recruits.

Significantly, the Western governments and media also reacted with extraordinary contempt towards Zelensky and his ruling circle. Western media headlines highlighted the problem of corruption in Ukraine and Zelensky’s brazen attempt to curb the anti-corruption organizations. The Washington Post reported: “Ukrainians protest as Zelensky cracks down on corruption watchdogs.” Ditto, among others, The New York Times, Time, CNN, France 24, The Economist, BBC, and even the usually supportive CIA-run Radio Free Europe. With remarkable uniformity, the Western media were condemning their erstwhile favorite “Churchillian figure”. Even the slavishly supportive U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham rebuked Zelensky. Were they all of a sudden drinking Russian Kool-Aid?

The Wall Street Journal reported: “Ukrainians ramp up protests as Zelensky tries to find a way out.” Likewise, the BBC headlined: “Zelensky backtracks on law over anticorruption bodies after protests.”

There are signs that the scandal has gone too far for Zelensky to now try to put the stench back in the bottle.

This is what the staunchest backers of the Kiev regime are really worried about. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer were among the European leaders who vigorously remonstrated with Zelensky over the corruption debacle. Von der Leyen chided Zelensky that anti-corruption was key to the country’s path towards eventually joining the EU, if it ever does, which, like its aspiration to join NATO, is doubtful.

What worries the NATO sponsors of the proxy war against Russia is that the corruption in Kiev will hasten a disorderly collapse of the regime. And with that, their long-term geopolitical game to confront and weaken Russia is over. The news of corruption is hardly new, and the Western governments know that. Pentagon auditors have long noted the vast amount of money that has disappeared unaccountably under Zelensky.

The racketeering has become even more brazen since Zelensky declared martial law and cancelled elections last year, making him a self-appointed president indefinitely. The Ukrainian people have had it with his crony rule, while thousands of men are killed and maimed every week on the front lines. Adding to the public anger and resistance are the goon squads that the regime dispatches to drag men off the streets to be sent to the front lines and certain death. Videos increasingly show Ukrainian communities standing up to snatch squads who are terrorizing them.

The shutting down of the anti-graft agencies by Zelensky is part of the regime’s desperate endgame. Last month, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) charged Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov with embezzlement. He is close to Zelensky and Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Thus, the investigators were making inroads into Zelensky’s inner circle of racketeering. Even the Kyiv Independent news outlet predicted last month that Zelensky would strike at the NABU and its partner anti-graft agency, the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO). Indeed, this is exactly what happened this week when the regime raided the offices of the two organizations, arresting officers under suspicion of being “Russian spies” and then rushing through a law to remove the independent powers of investigation. Under the new law, NABU and SAPO will be controlled by the Ukrainian Prosecutor General, who is a political appointee of Zelensky. In other words, muzzled.

Since the NATO proxy war against Russia erupted in February 2022, which the West lies about as Russia’s “unprovoked aggression,” it is estimated that NATO and EU nations have funneled over $300 billion into propping up the Kiev regime. The true figure may be $500 billion or higher. It has been a scam of historic scale perpetrated on Western taxpayers. As much as 30 to 40 percent of the money has disappeared through corruption, benefiting Zelensky and his cronies. The largesse has funded the purchase of luxury properties in foreign destinations, as well as his wife’s holidays to St Moritz and shopping trips in New York and Paris. But hey, this is just Russian propaganda, right?

The gargantuan racket is in danger of falling apart as the Russian military advances like lava on the crumbling Kiev regime, as independent geopolitical analyst Mark Sleboda eloquently put it this week. Additionally, like a pincer, the corruption probes are inevitably closing in on Zelensky and his circle.

In this desperate bunker situation, Zelensky’s response is to shut down the graft investigations and to project a seriousness about peace talks with Russia. There was a third round of talks in Istanbul this week. But, as Ukrainian opposition lawmaker Artem Dmytruk pointed out in an interview for RT, the peace negotiations are a sham simply to prolong the corrupt regime.

Western sponsors are finally admitting the rank corruption that has existed for many years. The stench is no longer bearable or possible to cover up. But what really concerns the NATO planners is that if the Ukrainian people are not placated – and it looks like they will not buy any more of Zelensky’s putrid clown show – then the proxy warmongers are facing an urgent dilemma. Mixed with the pong of graft is the even more obnoxious smell of ignominious defeat.

Zelensky, the former comedian, is beyond a bad joke. Veteran investigative reporter Seymour Hersh reported this week that U.S. President Donald Trump is making plans for Zelensky’s ouster. Hersh quoted an involved U.S. official saying that if the Kiev puppet refuses to quit, “he’s going to go by force.”

The Kiev regime of Neo-Nazis and embezzlers was always built on a massive propaganda deception. The lie that it was a democracy standing for Western values of freedom. The sewer gates are opening as the endgame approaches. It’s not just the Kiev cabal that will be swept away. Western leaders are up to their necks, too.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... s-endgame/

******

"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Jul 28, 2025 2:12 pm

The European Union's zero-sum game against China
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 07/28/2025

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“Old China at the end of the world has survived with its semi-Mongolian constitution as a ruin of remote antiquity. (…) This people, like some others on earth, has stopped midway in its educational process, remaining, in a certain sense, in childhood because the machinery of a mechanized morality forever impeded a free evolution of the spirit, and in the despotic Empire no other Confucius appeared.”

-Johann Gottfried Herder (1744-1803)

“The Chinese are considered a minor people, and their customs reveal a lack of independence. Despite all the greatness of their emperor, the Chinese people despise themselves, and even more so are they despised by others. There is in the Chinese that awareness of abjection, of which we have already spoken. The great immorality of the Chinese is closely related to this abjection. They are extremely inclined to thievery and cunning, like the Indians; they are also of agile build and very skillful in all sorts of sleight of hand. They are known for deceiving wherever they can; a friend deceives a friend, and no one takes it badly if the deception fails or comes to light. In this, they proceed in a cunning and sly manner, so that Europeans must be very careful in their dealings with them.”

-Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770-1831)

“Orientalism,” said Edward Said, “is not a fantasy that Europe created about the West, but a body of theory and practice in which, over many generations, considerable investment has been made. Because of this continued investment, Orientalism has become a system for understanding the Orient, an accepted filter through which the Orient enters the Western consciousness.” The Palestinian-American intellectual added that this concept is not far removed from “the idea of Europe, a collective notion that defines us Europeans as opposed to all non- Europeans , and one can say that the main component of European culture is precisely what contributes to its hegemonic status both within and outside Europe: the idea of a European identity superior to all non-European peoples and cultures.”

In this perception of the other , it's hard not to recall Josep Borrell's statement when he was still the leader of European diplomacy. "Europe is a garden. We have built a garden. Everything works. It is the best combination of political freedom, economic prosperity, and social cohesion that humanity has been able to build. All three together," Borrell stated, contrasting the European Union's garden with the rest of the world, before adding that "the rest of the world is not exactly a garden. Much of the rest of the world is a jungle, and the jungle could invade the garden." The then High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union borrowed the analogy from one of the best-known neocons , Robert Kagan, co-founder of the Project for the New American Century, in whose 2018 book he declares that "the jungle grows back." Kagan's logic coincides with Borrell's in emphasizing the maintenance of the status quo in the face of obvious change, although it differs somewhat in the specific facts. In response to Borrell's remarks, which largely addressed the issue of Europe's attempt to reduce immigration from countries it considers inferior, Kagan is attempting to return to the end of history to try to maintain what she defines as the liberal international order—in reality, the version created by and for the United States after World War II, which it has attempted to impose through wars, coups, or simple command and control beyond its borders.

In the 1990s, the unipolar moment of the Washington Consensus, when the political, economic, military and cultural hegemony of the United States was overwhelming, Francis Fukuyama, now a defender of Azov, proclaimed the end of history . The West had won the Cold War, Gorbachev had handed the Soviet Union over to the interests of capital, the United States could intervene to prevent a communist electoral victory, and the Chicago Boys were helping Igor Gaidar and Anatoly Chubais leave the Soviet people's heritage in the hands of the clans that would build the new Russia, neither liberal nor democratic, but capitalist. Partly proving Fukuyama right, capitalist logic, which has also been adopted by countries like China that cling to a planned economy as a way of preserving their sovereignty, has been imposed throughout the planet. However, as the concerns of Kagan and other American and European lobbyists show, liberal democracy, the rules-based international order that the West can selectively enforce or demand depending on the circumstances and enemies of the moment, has been challenged by a series of powers defined as revisionist and that pose a danger to the established order.

“The international economic system in which most countries have operated for the past 80 years is being reset, marking the beginning of a new era for the world. Existing norms are being challenged, while new ones have yet to emerge,” wrote Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Economic Counselor and Director of the IMF's Research Department, in April, just as Donald Trump and his administration's trade war against the rest of the world had begun. This economic logic, which shapes trade relations between different powers and blocs, is also the foundation on which political and geopolitical relations are built.

Under the current conditions of subordination to US political interests, recently demonstrated by the acceptance by all NATO members of the increase in military spending to the level demanded by Donald Trump, Europe's room for maneuver is limited to that which will not upset Washington. In addition to Trump's desire to use hard power and mafia-style threats to force countries, primarily allies against whom it has clearer tools of pressure, to follow the established path, there is also Europe's particular need to please the US leader, the main strategy for obtaining concessions on the Ukrainian issue. Brussels, London, Paris, and Berlin cannot afford to anger Donald Trump, who, in addition to tariffs, holds the card to limit military supplies to Ukraine if he feels offended. This situation particularly affects Europe's ability to maintain rational relations with Washington's main opponent, the only country that, given its size and potential, can rival the United States, not only in geopolitical terms, as the Soviet Union did, but also in economic terms.

Framing the circumstances as a zero-sum game in which the rise of one country necessarily implies disadvantage for another, the United States and its European partners are trying to maintain control in the relationship, asserting themselves as if the balance of power had not changed over the past thirty years. “As our cooperation has increased, so have the imbalances,” said Ursula von der Leyen during the visit of European Union authorities to China to commemorate 50 years of economic relations, a time in which Brussels has failed to grasp that its political and economic influence has diminished and that the balance of power has completely reversed.

“China is no longer what it was 120 years ago, when foreign powers could force their way in with firearms. Certain conspiratorial individuals in politics, academia, and the media should think twice if they think they can hurl senseless smears with impunity,” wrote Hua Chunying, now Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, in 2021. The reference was clear: the Century of Humiliation , which began with the First Opium War, when the British Empire sought to increase the income of its most lucrative colony, India, the one from which it stole the jewel in its crown, by imposing on China a trade liberalization in which opium would be the main product. Then came the Second Opium War, the attempt by European powers to repeat their performance in Africa by dividing up China after the Boxer Rebellion, the Japanese invasion, or the decades of contempt during which China rose economically, becoming the world's factory. China took advantage of its enormous population, its centralized and planned economic system, and, above all, the West's desire to deindustrialize.

To the surprise of the West, whose image of the country has not changed since the great intellectuals of German Romanticism saw in the distant country a minor to be protected, China has not only managed to create a development that has lifted millions of people out of poverty—at the cost of increasing inequality, an aspect worth considering in the future—but European industry, anchored in the 20th century, cannot compete with China in markets as important as electric vehicles. Industrialized, with key natural resources such as rare earths and privileged access to cheap Russian energy, China has become a puzzle for European authorities, who, pretending that the century of humiliation is not over, continue to insist, as Kaja Kallas did this week, that "China must act on our concerns." "I appealed to Beijing to find solutions to rebalance our economic relations," Kallas insisted, making it clear that her concern is that the EU cannot compete with China. What needs to be rebalanced is the “European mentality,” responded Mao Ning, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But even so, Brussels allows itself the luxury of ordering Beijing around, not just in economic terms. To the economic question, the entire EU representation in China added another fundamental aspect: the European order for Beijing to “stop facilitating Russia’s war against Ukraine.”

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The war of words against China, which, despite presenting a roadmap for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine beginning with a point dedicated to "the territorial integrity of all countries," has always been rejected as a possible player in negotiations in which European countries only want to see the United States, is not new. "China is a key facilitator of Russia's war," Kallas denounced a few months ago, specifically at the time when the confrontation between the United States and China over tariffs escalated.

European complaints, partly shared by the United States, can be summarized in two: China's continued acquisition of Russian energy products, which allow Moscow to maintain its income, necessary for the economic stability required by a war that, unlike Ukraine, it must finance, and China's commercial supply of so-called dual energy products, for both civilian and military use.

Coinciding with the European visit to China, and clearly not by chance, Reuters reported last week that “according to three European security officials and documents reviewed by Reuters , Chinese-made engines are being covertly shipped through front companies to a state-owned drone manufacturer in Russia, labeled as ‘industrial refrigeration units’ to avoid detection under Western sanctions.” Western countries, which have allocated more than $140 billion to Ukraine for military supplies, hope that Russia will not do the same and will mobilize its resources to acquire commercially—not as donations as Ukraine is obtaining them—the goods needed to produce the weapons it already had or to develop those that are emerging in this war as weapons of the future.

“The shipments have allowed Russian arms manufacturer IEMZ Kupol to increase its production of the Garpiya-A1 attack drone, despite sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union in October aimed at disrupting its supply chain, according to the sources and documents, which included contracts, invoices and customs documentation,” Reuters adds , without specifying that these sanctions that China is expected to comply with are unilateral and, therefore, neither binding nor legal.

At a time when the United States is putting pressure on both Russia and China, it is naive to think that Beijing will abandon its Russian ally, as Brussels is demanding. During his previous visit to the EU, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made it clear that Beijing does not want to see Russia defeated in Ukraine. An alliance based on temporary interests, the relationship between the two countries is based more on needs and shared opponents than on true friendship. It is therefore not surprising that China's argument to the EU, as reported by the South China Morning Post on July 4 , is that in the event of a Russian defeat in Ukraine, the United States would focus entirely on its confrontation with China.

Wanting to believe that the relationship between Russia and China is more fragile than circumstances suggest, and overestimating their power of persuasion, European countries continue to try to convince Beijing to abandon its neighbor and ally. And to convince China of the benefits of renouncing trade with a market as large as Russia's or the energy that Moscow supplies on privileged terms, they don't even renounce the policy of economic confrontation, the language of ultimatums, or the threat of sanctions.

With the same objective, but with more tools at its disposal to force Beijing to change its policy, the United States shares many of the ideas of the European Union. “There is potential for a deep and significant restructuring of the US-China relationship. President Trump has pledged to revive the high-precision industry in the United States, and as we recover our industrial economy, China remains extremely unbalanced. They produce 30% of global industrial output. We believe they should become a more consumer-oriented economy,” said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who, like Kaja Kallas or Ursula von der Leyen, is not short of issuing orders that he believes Beijing should follow. “If they are willing to go down this path, we could do it together. In addition, there are many other issues we can address, such as their purchases of sanctioned Russian or Iranian oil, or various security issues,” Bessent added. In other words, if China wants to improve its relations with the United States, it must focus on the domestic market and reduce its exports, leaving more room for American products. It must stop purchasing ideologically incorrect oil from Russia and Iran, limiting itself to ideologically pure oil from the United States or its allies.

Unlike its European partners, Washington has the dollar, the world's reserve currency, which significantly increases its ability to sanction countries whose policies it dislikes. This is the case with Brazil, against whom Trump is threatening 50% tariffs if the judiciary continues to prosecute Jair Mesías Bolsonaro for the 2023 coup attempt. This is also the case with China and India, which are the targets of the 50-day ultimatum issued a few days ago by Donald Trump, which implies 100% tariffs—in effect, the closure of the US market—for products from those countries that, without having militarily supported Ukraine, continue to purchase Russian energy products. Seen as just one of the many accusations against it, China has reacted stoically to a threat that, once again, is shared by Moscow and Beijing. Unwilling to admit that harassing both capitals in the same way will not separate them but rather unite them even more, the United States and the European Union cling to a policy of sanctions and the magical realism of wanting to see reality in their wishes.

A measure of desperation is evident in the words spoken by Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO, in an appearance on Fox News . In a cynical exercise in projection, the party that has invested €65.58 billion (and claims the real figure is $350 billion) in the Ukrainian military effort accuses the party that has simply continued trading with its neighbor and ally, stating that “China believes it is waging a proxy war through Russia… They want us to get involved in this conflict so we can't focus on other threats. But that won't happen. China must be held accountable for subsidizing the carnage taking place on the battlefield in Ukraine.”

Still unable to understand how they have ceased to be able to impose their conditions on a country they have always viewed through the racist gaze of those who consider themselves superior, Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, and Brussels continue to search for ways to get what they want. Sometimes with arguments that are an insult to intelligence.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/28/el-ju ... tra-china/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Medvedev on the US-EU trade deal

Trump has smeared Europe.

It must be admitted that, despite his extreme inconsistency in statements and actions, he is quite consistent in one thing. Trump is harshly pushing through the economic interests of his country.

The current "deal" with the European Union:
1) is completely humiliating for Europeans, since it is only beneficial to the US - it removes protection of the European market, zeroing out duties on American goods;
2) creates huge additional costs for industry and agriculture in many EU countries to pay for expensive American energy;
3) redirects a powerful flow of investment from Europe to the US.

And of course, the "deal" is clearly anti-Russian in nature, prohibiting the purchase of our oil and gas. But if for Trump this is mainly business, then for the crazy old lady Europe it is part of a neo-Nazi ideology that hits the well-being of its own citizens.

One can simply sympathize with ordinary Europeans. It's high time for them to storm Brussels and hang all the European Commissioners, including, of course, the crazy old lady Ursula, on the flagpoles of the EU countries. It won't help, of course, but at least it will be fun...


(He's a weasel and opportunists but he performs well)))

***

Colonelcassad
Zaporizhzhya direction. Kamenskoye section. (data from @DnevnikDesantnika )

Paratroopers of the 7th Airborne Assault Division report on the situation in Plavni:

The enemy has transferred additional reserves of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel; at this time, a large number of enemy small groups are still in the settlement, dispersed in residential buildings and basements. Fierce fighting is underway, which is complicated by a large number of enemy FPV drones, dense mortar fire, and enemy drones like Baba Yaga operate in combat pairs or triplets at night.

Regarding the situation in Stepnogorsk:

The battle line here is dynamic, the airborne assault groups are having a hard time holding their positions due to pressure from the enemy using FPV drones, as we have already written, the Hungarian cocks were transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces area, during the night alone we uncovered two enemy drone launch nests and after their destruction our work did not become easier, which confirms the fact that the enemy has transferred additional forces.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Article for filming air defense and UAV, missile and drone arrivals: what is prohibited, where and what is the threat
July 28, 9:00

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Article for filming air defense and UAV, missile and drone arrivals: what is prohibited, where and what is the threat

There are already strict restrictions on publishing photos and videos, coordinates of "where it banged" and "where it flew from", "where what went" and "where the military is". Because the unteachable "I just took a picture with my own people" should only be taught with fines, a criminal record or a mark in the database "was involved".

They do not understand that enemy eyes are sitting in social networks, and OSINT|GEOINT immediately calculates "where the air defense is", "should we finish it off or not", "where the missile flew from". And moving the positions of air defense, electronic warfare, and interceptor missile defense systems because of idiots is very expensive. And yes, enemy satellites and agents see objects - but they do not work instantly and not everywhere. Why help the enemy?

Crimea.
Since July, publications that allow determining the locations of air defense, equipment, military units, as well as the consequences of terrorist attacks and strikes have been banned. Violators face administrative or even criminal liability if damage is caused.

Pskov and Ryazan regions.
Since July, a complete ban has been imposed on the dissemination of information about the operation of air defense systems, UAV attacks, and the consequences. The exception is official publications. The fine is up to 500,000 rubles.

Tambov and Ulyanovsk regions.
Since mid-July, any photo and text materials about the arrival and destruction of targets have been prohibited. Fines start at 5,000 rubles.

Kalmykia and Volgograd regions.
After the strikes in June, the authorities banned the publication of any information about the operation of air defense systems, electronic warfare systems, and impact points. Fines range from 4,000 to 100,000 rubles.

Adygea and St. Petersburg.
Since October 2024 and January 2025, respectively, there have been bans on publications about drones, air defense systems, and the consequences of attacks. Fines reach 500,000 rubles.

As @mayday_7700 learned, two parliamentary factions are already preparing amendments to the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. It is proposed to introduce a new article: "Illegal dissemination of information about the actions of the defense forces in conditions of an armed threat."

According to the draft, publications (in social networks, chats, blogs, etc.) of data capable of revealing the location of air defense, electronic warfare, equipment, evacuation routes or the consequences of attacks - without the consent of the authorities - may be punishable by:

- a fine of 350,000 to 1,000,000 rubles,
- or mandatory work for up to 480 hours,
- or correctional labor for up to 2 years (without imprisonment).
For teenagers - mandatory work or placement in a special center for up to 5 days with prophylaxis.

The amendments stipulate that conscientious bloggers and war correspondents will not suffer if they observe reasonable information hygiene - do not disclose positions, damage, routes and do not interfere with the defense.

Do you still remember the tightening of penalties for false "mining" of schools and universities? When the fine began to start at 500 thousand, and the punishment included real terms or forced labor, the number of those willing to "make a joke for a term or the sale of an apartment" sharply decreased.

@mayday_7700 - zinc

Actually, I have been posting photos/videos of air defense arrivals/work for a long time now strictly to a minimum, mainly where it is not possible to determine the direction of air defense work. I simply put most of these videos in my archive without publishing them.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9979109.html

Google Translator

******

Trump on lithium

Lorenzo Maria Pacini

July 26, 2025

It is clear that the combination of Ukraine’s difficulties and the U.S. disengagement strengthens the Kremlin’s position.

There is something going on in Ukraine

Despite efforts to get involved in Ukraine through strategic investments, Trump and his entourage have to contend with a well-oiled machine. Regardless of which government is in power in Kiev, key decisions are filtered through the interests of the U.S. Democratic Party.

This network is resilient, capable of adapting and withstanding external shocks. Fueled for decades by organizations such as USAID, the Soros network, and Western embassies, it controls significant portions of Ukraine’s information, real estate, and logistics.

Faced with this entrenched system, Republican initiatives – however pragmatic – risk being quietly but effectively blocked under the pretext of transparency, anti-corruption and ‘democratic values’. As long as the Democrats control access to resources, they will continue to write the rules.

When the Ukrainian authorities announced the start of work on the exploitation of the Dobra lithium deposit in the Kirovograd region – one of the largest in Europe – the message was clearly a diplomatic signal: Ukraine intends to make symbolic gestures to show its willingness to engage in dialogue with the Trump administration, with which it has not yet established a constructive relationship. Yet Kiev has not forgotten the Republican leader’s statements on the need to reduce support for the country, and is therefore proceeding with caution. Zelensky is well aware that, in a protracted conflict and with growing Western disinterest, rhetoric alone will not be enough to guarantee aid.

The decision to develop the lithium deposit is a strategic move: lithium is essential for the production of batteries and advanced military technologies. We have already discussed this in a detailed article.

This is precisely what Kiev hopes will attract the attention of Trump’s team. With this initiative, the Ukrainian government is seeking not only visibility in Washington, but also security guarantees, such as continuity in the supply of U.S. weapons.

The development of the Dobra site is a way for Kiev to show that it is ready to share economic opportunities, especially if this can help maintain American interest and ensure the arrival of vital weapons in the war against Moscow.

When the Dobra field project came under the spotlight, the American investment fund TechMe, headed by Ronald Lauder, a figure close to Donald Trump, emerged. This fund, linked to energy activities in Texas and Nevada, is now among the main candidates for participation in the project. Lauder, a long-time friend of Trump, has taken part in private MAGA events and is known as a donor to the Republican Party.

According to some analysts, if the Dobra lithium project were to be realized quickly thanks to TechMe, Trump could present it as a success: a concrete initiative, profitable for America, strategically relevant, and politically unassailable. In the eyes of the electorate, Trump could thus appear not as a distant critic of the Ukrainian conflict, but as a pragmatic leader who turns a foreign war into an opportunity for the U.S. economy. Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, this message could prove effective: Trump would bring home lithium useful for electric cars, weapons, and digital technology.

Something went wrong

However, there was an unexpected twist: Russian forces managed to capture the infamous deposit. There has been no significant comment from the Trump administration. This silence has disappointed Kiev and its supporters, who hoped that the lithium deal would guarantee the U.S.’s long-term involvement in the country’s security.

Although little discussed in the U.S., the case offers three important insights into the state of the war and the prospects for peace in the short term.

The continuation of the conflict seems to be worsening Ukraine’s position, both on the battlefield and in negotiations. The Trump administration has just blocked new military aid, and the aid still planned under the Biden administration is running out. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army is running out of air defense missiles and risks shortages in other areas, desertions are numerous, and there are no signs of Moscow backing down. So, in simple terms, the war will continue until Russia wins.

Trump now seems uninterested in the Ukrainian issue. Tensions with Zelensky have been evident, and the U.S. president has avoided meetings and discussions about the war, even at international summits. Even Ukrainian proposals to purchase American weapons have not attracted much attention. Trump’s approach suggests that the U.S. will no longer seek to lead the situation: it will wait for Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement on their own. This favors Moscow, which has the initiative on the ground, and penalizes Kiev. The lithium agreement, designed to tie U.S. interests to Ukraine, has proved ineffective.

It is clear that the combination of Ukraine’s difficulties and the U.S. disengagement strengthens the Kremlin’s position.

The West has few tools to change this balance. Sanctions do not seem sufficient to make Moscow back down, and industrial constraints are holding back further military aid to Kiev.

The Democrats’ hand in Ukraine

Republicans describe U.S. capital intervention in Ukraine as a pragmatic shift, as opposed to the idealistic approach of the Democrats. But the reality is that the U.S. has been profiting from the country for some time, albeit through more discreet mechanisms presented as aid and support for democracy. The main beneficiaries? The Democratic elite, led by the Biden family.

Even during the Obama presidency, Ukraine was considered a sphere of influence for then-Vice President Joe Biden. Kiev became a geopolitical laboratory where political power could be turned into economic advantages. A case in point is Burisma, the Ukrainian energy company that, in 2014, appointed Hunter Biden to its board of directors, despite his total lack of experience in the sector. He received tens of thousands of dollars a month for “consulting” while the country was facing a severe economic crisis.

The current competition for Ukrainian resources is therefore only the continuation of a well-established strategy, in which Kiev is both a political playground and a source of profit. Now the Republicans are entering the scene, but the rules remain the same: whoever controls Ukrainian assets gains influence and money.

While Republicans try to carve out a space in the Ukrainian market with investments and “concrete agreements,” Democrats have no intention of abandoning what they have built. This is not just about the personal interests of the Biden, Clinton, or Soros families, but about an entire architecture of influence. Ukraine has become a well-planned strategic “bet,” and it will not be given up so easily.

Suffice it to recall that Victoria Nuland, during the Obama administration, declared that the U.S. had invested over $5 billion to support Ukrainian “democracy” by funding NGOs, media, activists, and political consultants. These tools paved the way for the 2014 regime change.

Among the key economic players is Tomáš Fiala, a Czech entrepreneur, investor, and media mogul with close ties to the U.S. Democrats. CEO of Dragon Capital, the main investment fund on the Ukrainian stock exchange, Fiala has direct links to George Soros and has been operating in Ukraine since 2000, during the Clinton presidency.

Fiala actively participated in the 2004 and 2014 protest movements, which were supported by Western funds. He had close ties to Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk, and controls the NV media group, which promotes a pro-Western narrative. His investments in Ukraine include industrial plants, real estate, and logistics infrastructure, often acquired at low cost thanks to the crisis and U.S.-sponsored “reforms.”

Over time, the Democrats have consolidated a widespread network of foundations, funding, and power structures. Dismantling it will be difficult: it is supported by huge cash flows, political alliances, and solid control over decision-making levers.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... n-lithium/

"Democrats", ha! They are but the façade of finance capital which finds Trumpist notions of international relations restrictive.

******

NATO Rhetoric Reaches New Levels of Hostility with Threats of 'Swift' Kaliningrad Invasion
Jul 28, 2025

The past week has seen an elevated rhetoric from NATO countries accusing Russia of preparing to launch a war on Europe, specifically, in 2027. As is always the case, these declarations appear oddly coordinated, which usually denotes a signaling of intentions from the West itself, rather than a genuine alarm over Russian plans.

This time it has also included the unprecedented coordinated calls that China and Russia could attack together—China launching an invasion of Taiwan as Russia does against Europe. In particular, NATO’s new Supreme Allied Commander of Europe Alexus Grynkewich stated this openly:

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Polish PM Tusk elaborates: (Video at link.)

Polish Deputy PM and Minister of Defense chimes in to strengthen the signposting:

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It is strange how forcefully they have been pushing 2027 in particular as a flashpoint year. One theory is this could be the year NATO’s models have shown that Ukraine will reach collapse and capitulation to Russia, requiring the next stage of the conflict to be tied on in order to continue the program of destabilization against Russia. Also, it could be a last ditch game plan to save Ukraine at the point of collapse: by provoking and triggering a new Russian front elsewhere in Europe in order to divert forces and keep the Russian Army from sacking Kiev or even all of rump-state Ukraine.

The most obvious hinge point for this would be Kaliningrad, where NATO officials have likewise escalated threats of late.

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This culminated the past week with top NATO general Christopher Donahue boasting that the “defensive” alliance has developed a plan to capture Russia’s Kaliningrad with unprecedented speed:

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https://kyivindependent.com/us-general- ... d-of-fast/

The Commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa (USAREUR-AF), Gen. Christopher T. Donahue stated recently that NATO has developed a plan to capture Russia's heavily-fortified exclave of Kaliningrad “in a timeframe that is unheard of” in case of a full-scale conflict with Russia.

Planning for such an operation follows the implementation of a new allied strategy known as the “Eastern Flank Deterrence Line”, which focuses on bolstering land forces, integrating defense production, and deploying standardized digital systems and launch platforms for rapid battlefield coordination within NATO. Further speaking about the new strategy, General Donahue stated, “The land domain is not becoming less important, it's becoming more important. You can now take down anti-access, area-denial bubbles from the ground. You can now take over sea from the ground. All of those things we are watching happen in Ukraine.”


This is a clear message from NATO: that continued provocative actions are meant to impel Russia into firing the first shot, so that NATO can cry “aggression”.

Ironically enough, NATO bigwig ‘Admiral’ Rob Bauer made several contradictory statements, demonstrating just how confused and misaligned NATO is on its messaging. First he told Welt that, actually, a Russian attack on a puny Baltic state would not immediately trigger an armed NATO response:

(Paywall with free option.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/nat ... new-levels
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Jul 29, 2025 11:56 am

Negotiating from a position of strength
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ July 29, 2025

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Exactly two weeks after he distanced himself from his dialogue-based approach to resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on July 14 and embraced the language of the European countries' ultimatum, Donald Trump yesterday once again expressed his disappointment with Vladimir Putin, whom he once again emphasized for his ability to share pleasant phone calls, but whom he criticized for not having accepted the ceasefire he demanded. "We thought we had it resolved numerous times, and then President Putin goes out and starts firing rockets at some city like kyiv and kills a bunch of people in a nursing home or whatever," he insisted yesterday, once again painting a false picture of both the negotiations and the war itself. Resolving the Ukrainian conflict requires agreement on three major aspects: security, territoriality, and post-war relations between the two countries and their societies. Russia includes, for example, the linguistic, cultural, and religious rights of the Russian-speaking population, as well as so-called denazification , the ban on armed groups with radical ideologies that are gaining increasing power in the state.

On the latter point, especially regarding the rights of the Russian-speaking or Russian-cultural population, Moscow's demands go no further than demanding that Volodymyr Zelensky fulfill his promises to the electorate when they overwhelmingly elected him to replace Petro Poroshenko. However, even those concessions, which Zelensky presented as a fair program that did not eliminate anyone's rights but rather guaranteed those of the entire population, are no longer on the table. And by confusing the territorial issue—the easiest to resolve since it is directly determined by opposing positions—with the resolution of the conflict, Trump has consistently avoided addressing the most important aspect, the one where the contradictions between the two countries require negotiation and mediation: security. Considering that no political dialogue on the matter has taken place between Russia and Ukraine since 2022 and that the United States has never offered anything minimally viable, those moments when the conflict was practically resolved could only have existed in the mind of Donald Trump, who is guided by his instincts when assigning blame for the complexity of the war depending on who his closest advisor is at the time.

Trump's frustration with Vladimir Putin contrasts with the triumphalism displayed by Trumpism after the resounding success achieved in his negotiations with the European Union. Asked why the United States is giving up what it wants in the trade agreement between Brussels and Washington, von der Leyen responded that "the starting point was an imbalance, a surplus on our side and a deficit on the US side. We wanted to rebalance the trade relationship," a way of presenting her defeat as a voluntary and happily accepted surrender.

“Chamberlain's surrender to fascism is explained by the trauma of the First World War and the desire to avoid another global conflict at all costs. Von der Leyen and the EU's surrender to Trumpism is harder to justify,” commented Alfredo González Ruibal, War at the University on Social Media and winner of the 2024 Spanish National Essay Prize, yesterday. This willingness to give in to each and every one of Donald Trump's demands is largely explained by the position the European Union has decided to position itself at a time when, with the war in Ukraine as a catalyst, a return to a bloc-based policy has emerged which, although with enormous differences—among them the absence of the ideological component that was key in the conflicts of the 20th century—is somewhat reminiscent of the Cold War.

This is especially true of the EU's subordination to the interests and will of the United States, the exceptional and indispensable country without which they could not fend for themselves, especially when it comes to war. For months, European capitals have shown extreme nervousness about the possibility of Washington stepping aside or of a negotiation process with the potential to lead to an agreement that would end the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. That danger was always remote, as there are enough actors capable of sabotaging the process should it progress far enough. With the invaluable help of Keith Kellogg—and perhaps Marco Rubio—the European countries managed to impose their roadmap for a negotiation that left the main security and territorial issues open, in contrast to Steve Witkoff's more vague and ambiguous proposal, which did aim to reach a final resolution.

With this, London, Paris, Berlin, and Brussels finally managed to align Washington and kyiv around a vision of peace that included a ceasefire, an image of the three presidents, and a subsequent resolution process that Ukraine could—as it did in Minsk—delay forever, and Donald Trump would claim success in resolving a conflict that, like the Indo-Pakistani conflict or the one between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which he also boasts of having resolved, remains open. "We were going to sign the ceasefire, divide things up, and then talk about whatever," the US president stammered yesterday, making it clear that he was seeking an image to present as his great achievement and then allow the real negotiation process to begin, the one in which he has never shown the slightest interest. Interesting only to Ukraine, which would achieve through diplomatic means what it has been unable to do militarily—stopping Russian troops—without making any of the political concessions it refuses to make. This scenario is the most feared by Russia, as it would entail an eternal conflict that, according to Kellogg's roadmap, would include a military presence by European NATO countries in Ukraine. Despite Trump's diatribes and the confidence of European capitals, the chances of Vladimir Putin accepting this option were zero.

Once the danger of peace had passed, which, as the Danish prime minister admitted, could be "more dangerous than war," the European objective became ensuring that Ukraine would always have the necessary materiel to continue fighting or, in the terrible event of a peace agreement, threatening Russia with its rearmament. The NATO summit gave Trump exactly what he asked for: a unanimous commitment to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, with assistance to Ukraine counted as security spending. The next step, obligatory since European countries are unable to supply some of Zelensky's most important weapons, was an agreement under which European countries would pay for the acquisition of large quantities of US materiel to deliver to Ukraine. The European Union would provide the financing, Russia and Ukraine the blood, while the United States, especially its military-industrial complex, would reap the benefits. War is too important for the European Union to even consider its economic consequences. With this measure, the EU implicitly confirmed that the rearmament policy trumpeted by Ursula von der Leyen was not a quest for strategic autonomy, something unfeasible within NATO, but rather a rearmament policy. Once again, Brussels was giving Washington exactly what it asked for: economic benefits and the consolidation of Europe's dependence on the United States.

The agreement reached Sunday night in a negotiation Trump likes best, from a position of strength and playing at home—on the Scottish golf course he owns—is yet another demonstration of US power in its new backyard, willing to give in on each and every demand and still be able to present the result as "the greatest deal ever made." Without getting anything in return, as tariffs on US products remain at zero, the EU has posed with a smile and thumbs up in its announcement of an agreement according to which European products—with few exceptions—will have 15% tariffs on the US market (compared to the 10% Brussels was aiming for, although far from the 30% empty threat of Donald Trump, who always knew there would be an agreement). In addition to this concession, Brussels also accepts US blackmail in the energy and military sectors: the EU is committed to military procurement worth $600 billion above normal levels and energy procurement worth $750 billion over three years.

“It is obvious that American energy resources will be much more expensive than Russian ones, that this approach will lead to further deindustrialization and the flight of investment from Europe to the United States,” Sergey Lavrov said yesterday, referring to the stratospheric and unviable European promise. According to Eurostat, total EU energy imports amounted to €379.9 billion ($436.28 billion) last year. To reach €250 billion in a year, the EU would have to purchase 57% of its imports from the US market, which currently accounts for 16.1% of oil imports and 45.3% of liquefied natural gas. In contrast to the promise of diversification and the renunciation of dependence on cheap, local, and reliable Russian energy that the EU touted in 2022, Trump demands to be the preferred supplier, having shown his willingness to use the language of threat to get his allies to act as Washington desires. For the EU, this political humiliation of someone who presents himself as a mere economic proxy who admits his subordination is the price to pay to guarantee that he will achieve what he wants in his main objective: a common war against Russia and a reconfiguration of continental relations centered on the Atlanticist vector of someone who voluntarily renounces diversification of its relations, refuses to treat emerging powers as such, and, despite his manifest weakness, still wants to give orders to more powerful economies.

The agreement with Ursula von der Leyen is the type of pact Trump always aspires to: a quick and simple process in which one meeting is enough for the other party, in a clear position of inferiority, to give in to all demands. The US frustration with Russia and Iran stems precisely from their willingness to defend their interests and sovereignty, as well as the complexity of the processes being negotiated. In the Iranian case, the agreement under Donald Trump's terms was unworkable for many reasons, including the fact that it was he himself who unilaterally broke the agreement, which took months to negotiate in 2015 and was being respected by all parties. In June of this year, when the US president realized that he was not going to obtain the surrender he demanded from Tehran—not only on the nuclear issue, but also on the missile program and its support for factions resisting US hegemony in the region—the Israeli attack took place.

History repeats itself in the case of Russia, which, as Sergey Lavrov described yesterday, finds itself alone in this war. “We have a lot to do. Our main task is to defeat the enemy. For the first time in history, Russia is fighting alone against the entire West. During the First and Second World Wars, we had allies. Now, we have no allies on the battlefield. So we must rely on ourselves, and there is no room for weakness,” declared the Russian Foreign Minister. This isolation poses a major challenge when it comes to providing the army with the necessary resources to continue the war, but also the autonomy that Ukraine and the European Union lack, at the mercy of Donald Trump's orders to achieve part of his desires.

Hence the frustration of the US president, bored with negotiations in which he won't get what he wants because he's facing a country that has maintained its sovereignty and managed to redirect its political and commercial relations away from the West. This is demonstrated by the example mentioned last week by Vladimir Medinsky, leader of the Russian delegation in Istanbul and who cannot be suspected of sympathy for communist ideology. He recalled that Mao and Chiang Kai-shek met on numerous occasions, smiled, shook hands, but there was no agreement, and "despite Western support, the nationalists lost and the communists won." The example is no longer in the West; to explain the present, we must look to the history of the East. In response to the 50-day ultimatum, the former Minister of Culture and one of Vladimir Putin's closest associates insisted that "after the Revolution and Civil War in 1928, not only were we under sanctions, but Soviet Russia faced a total diplomatic and economic blockade from everyone. And yet, that didn't stop us from winning World War II."

Medinsky's words also serve as a reaction to Donald Trump's statements yesterday, who, bored, confirmed that he is no longer "that interested in talking" with the Russian Federation. "I'm going to set a new deadline of about ten or twelve days from today... there's no reason to wait... I want to be generous, but we just don't see any progress," he declared, after mentioning that it is not necessary to exhaust the 50-day deadline since he believes he knows "the answer." Given the certainty that there will be no Russian surrender to a resolution that would force Russia into a perhaps frozen but undoubtedly protracted conflict that doesn't even involve the lifting of sanctions, Trump is seeking to speed up the process. The calm response from Russia and China indicates that, despite the uncertainty about the scenario the United States is preparing—be it destructive sanctions, massive deliveries of long-range weapons, or granting security guarantees for an armed mission by European NATO countries in Ukraine—there is no fear of what might happen the next day.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/29/negoc ... de-fuerza/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
0:28
0:43
A terrorist attack against a high-ranking military officer has been prevented in Rostov-on-Don .

According to preliminary information, the sabotage on the orders of the Ukrainian special services was being prepared by a citizen of one of the Central Asian states, born in 1982. While abroad, he was recruited by an employee of the Ukrainian special services through an acquaintance who is a supporter of international terrorist organizations. Then, on the orders of his curator, he arrived in Rostov-on-Don, where he rented an apartment and conducted reconnaissance of the serviceman’s place of residence in order to commit murder using an improvised explosive device.

During the operational search activities, an improvised explosive device weighing 400 grams in TNT equivalent, means of communication for secret communication with the curator, and a video camera for surveillance were seized from him.

A criminal case has been opened on this fact under Part 1 of Article 30, Part 1 of Article 205 (preparation for a terrorist act), Part 1 of Article. 222.1 (illegal trafficking in explosives or explosive devices) and Part 1 of Article 223.1 (illegal manufacture of explosives or explosive devices) of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. The suspect was taken into custody.

@opersvodki

***

Colonelcassad
Medvedev's response to the 10-12 days Trump gave Russia to resolve the conflict:

"Trump is playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10... He should remember two things: 1. Russia is not Israel or even Iran. 2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step toward war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country. Don't go down the path of Sleepy Joe."

***

Colonelcassad
On the cyber attack on Aeroflot.

1. Most likely, the attack was carried out by special services, and hackers are acting as a regular cover.

2. It turned out that import substitution at Aeroflot has not yet occurred or has not occurred in full. This is unlikely to surprise anyone.

3. The very concept of attacks on infrastructure by means of cyber-attacks is not new. The Stuxnet attacks in the Middle East and the attack on the El Guri dam in Venezuela by hacking the video surveillance system immediately come to mind, as a result of which the country had power outages for several weeks.

4. This story shows (once again) that the use of foreign software and hardware solutions makes the critical infrastructure of the state vulnerable. Such attacks will be inevitable in the coming years. Accordingly, it is necessary to speed up the process of replacing critical elements of our network infrastructure tied to Western solutions.

5. As an illustrative measure, it would be possible to remove the airport terminals in Kiev. Among other things.

6. Well, it is worth remembering that there is a war going on. Cyber attacks are part of the war.

***

Colonelcassad
Trump said that he gives 10-12 days to settle the war in Ukraine.
The war will of course continue in 10-12 days, and in 50 days.
Then they will introduce more sanctions and the topic of the "deal with friend Donald" will fade into the background, while the next offensive of the Russian Armed Forces is underway.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Brief Frontline Report – July 28th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin and Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Jul 28, 2025

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports: "Units of the "Center" Group have liberated the settlements of Boykovka and Belgiyka in the Donetsk People's Republic through decisive combat operations."

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Krasnoarmeysk=Pokrovsk

Boykovka (Boyikovka on the map, marked with a Russian flag), a village in Dobropolye district of the DPR (48°24'04"N 37°18'31"E, about 100 residents) on the left bank of the Kazenny Torets River is one of the strongholds in the Ukrainian forces' Boykovka-Suvorovo-Fedorovka defensive area covering river crossings and approaches to the Belitskoye logistics hub.

Two days ago, the enemy attempted a counterattack toward Mayak, hoping to eliminate our bridgehead on the left bank that protects the right flank of the Mayak-Novoeconomicheskoye line. The attack was repelled with enemy losses. Russian forces immediately exploited this success, organizing a river crossing operation with right flank support to advance into Boykovka. As a result, we expanded the Mayak-Boykovka bridgehead with support from Novotoretskoye, gaining advantageous positions for developing the offensive toward Fedorovka and Suvorovo strongholds.

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The settlement of Belgiyka (Belhyika on the map, marked with a Russian flag, 48.234275, 37.161210) is located on the railway connecting Chunishino (Chunyshyno) and the ruins of the Shevchenko mine (Шахта* No.21 Шевченко, look just below Troyanda) through Zverevo. This serves as a gateway to the southern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), with potential access to Zelenovka (Зеленовка) or Lazurny (Лазурный) districts depending on the situation. An alternative operational approach would be to encircle Chunishino village, thereby outflanking the heavily fortified Ukrainian defensive area of Chunishino-Sukhy Yar that covers the junction between the Pokrovsk and Dimitrov (Mirnograd) defense hubs.

The enemy is reporting increased activity by Russian special forces reconnaissance groups in southern and central urban areas. Reconnaissance operations benefit from the fog of war - the greater the confusion, the more effective they become. Results should become apparent soon. Apparently, bridgeheads are being prepared within the city where supplies and weapons are being concentrated, while assault groups infiltrate to breach the defenses from within.

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ЛБС 02.5.2025=Line of Combat Contact May 2nd, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

Note: While some channels have reported the liberation of Yablonovka and Aleksandro-Kalinovo in the Konstantinovka direction, information is conflicting. Until the Ministry of Defense announces it, we will leave it as under Ukrainian control.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -july-28th

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On the capitulation of Ukraine
09:44 18.07.2025 (updated: 11:29 18.07.2025)

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© Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine

Rostislav Ishchenko
author of the publication Ukraine.ru

Our people love to mock the naive faith of Ukrainians in the power of the word "victory". Ukrainians really do mold "victory" out of every "betrayal" until it becomes obvious that it is a total "shame".

At the same time, our people themselves are just as naive in believing in the power of the word "capitulation". Someone will say or write on social networks "we only need Ukraine's capitulation, no truces" - and they will look at us with a swagger - wow, I've beaten everyone. But they don't understand that they've said something stupid. Because capitulation is a truce - not a "ceasefire", but a truce with the goal of working out the terms of peace and signing a peace treaty.

We have simply become accustomed to the fact that the Great Patriotic War ended with the complete and unconditional capitulation of the Great German Reich (the official name of the state we fought against). Therefore, few people ask themselves why the capitulation was signed exclusively by the military (Field Marshal Keitel, Admiral General von Friedeburg, Colonel General of the Luftwaffe Stumpf) and why, ten years later, the USSR and the FRG signed a peace treaty that finally ended the state of war (the state of war between the USSR and Japan was ended by the Moscow Declaration of 1956, and disputes about the peace treaty are still ongoing).

In essence, capitulation only records the end of resistance on the part of the armed forces. The territory of the capitulating country can be occupied by the victors (as in 1945) or other measures can be taken to ensure the cessation of hostilities (as in 1918). By the way, the situation of 1918 most clearly explains that capitulation is not a final settlement at all.

Austria-Hungary signed an armistice with the Allies on November 3, 1918, Germany Compiegne Armistice on November 11, 1918. Both armistices, then and now, were synonymously referred to as capitulation. Moreover, in the understanding of the Allies, this capitulation was unconditional. The British even planned to try and hang Kaiser Wilhelm "for starting an aggressive war," but then changed their minds so as not to create a precedent, otherwise you never know who might lose the war next time. Austria-Hungary began to disintegrate even before the capitulation. But when the Hungarians wanted to leave the last emperor (Charles I) as their king (Austria immediately became a republic), the Allies forbade it. Hungary had to remain a kingdom without a king, and Horthy worked as a regent until his removal by Hitler in 1944, for trying to negotiate with the Allies about surrender already in World War II.

These precedents show that although the Allies did not occupy the capitulated Central Powers, they fully controlled their internal policies, right up until the final settlement of post-war relations during the Paris Conference of 1919 (the Treaty of Versailles with Germany, the Treaty of Saint-Germain with Austria, the Treaty of Trianon with Hungary). I would like to point out that the end of the state of war occurred, although faster than after World War II, but still only eight and a half months after the armistice (capitulation).

But the most interesting thing happened with Turkey. It was the weakest link in the Triple Alliance and capitulated before everyone else, signing the Armistice of Mudros on October 30, 1918. Unlike Germany, Austria and Hungary, most of Turkey was occupied by the Greeks, Italians, French and British. The Treaty of Sevres between the Allies and Turkey was signed only in August 1920 (almost two years after the capitulation). The conditions were harsh: Turkey lost Iraq, Syria, possessions on the Arabian Peninsula, in Europe, as well as islands and part of the Asia Minor coast of the Aegean Sea, recognized the British protectorate over Egypt, agreed to the "international" (in fact, British) occupation of the straits zone, the creation of an "independent" Kurdistan, the Turkish-Armenian border was to run from the area west of Trebizond to the area west of Lake Van.
But Mustafa Kemal (the future Ataturk) did not agree with this and, despite the capitulation, began to fight the victors. In the end, after the Turkish-Armenian and Greco-Turkish wars, in 1922 a new, Mudanya armistice was signed with the Entente, and in 1923 the Lausanne Peace Treaty, which formalized the current territory of Turkey - almost twice as much as the allies were going to leave it under the Treaty of Sevres.

Notice? Türkiye capitulated, but then went back to war with some of the same countries it had capitulated to and, as a result, achieved much better peace terms.

The main difference between capitulation and a peace treaty is that the military capitulates, thereby admitting that they can no longer fight, while a peace treaty is concluded by politicians, often not involved in the war in any way and striving to defend the interests of their state as much as possible, including by creating new international combinations. By the time the negotiations are completed and the treaty is concluded, the troops may already be in the barracks, or it may turn out that the loser will wage a new, more successful war against one or several of the former victors.
At the same time, the occupation of the loser's territory does not always help. Note that after the First World War, all the demands of the victors were met by unoccupied Germany, Austria, Hungary, and partially by half-occupied Türkiye.

Capitulation (aka truce) is just a step towards achieving the final goal. A very important, penultimate, but a step. The final step is a peace treaty.
Now let's ask ourselves with whom Russia can sign a peace treaty in Ukraine? I will take the liberty of saying that it cannot be with anyone. Ukrainian emigrant politicians have long represented no one but themselves. They may be as good people as they like, but they are not able to ensure that Russian demands are met, since they have no one to rely on in Ukraine. There they would rather submit to a governor-general from among the native Russians than to emigrants who "have forgotten nothing and understood nothing" (it is easier for a loser in a war to accept the power of the one who defeated him, rather than the one who arrived in the victor's train).

Kyiv politicians, including those in opposition to Zelensky, will rave about revenge, just as they are now rave about "victory" despite the obviousness of Ukraine's defeat, even the complete catastrophe of Ukrainian statehood. They will persuade and equip the West for war with Russia, just as they have done for the last thirty-five years, as they are doing now, as the Baltic politicians are doing.

At the same time, it is important to understand that the very fact of capitulation inevitably leads to a ceasefire and the beginning of peace talks, but does not necessarily lead to the conclusion of a peace treaty (remember Japan). Internet marginals can say as much as they want that we don’t care about the treaty. But we do care – the SVO began after the West refused to negotiate, because it refused to negotiate and as a means of forcing it to sit down at the negotiating table. After all, we need a safe world and warriors returning home, and not an army deployed in combat formations in Ukraine, preparing to repel possible Western aggression in aid of the Banderites, with whom the capitulation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not end the state of war.

But, as stated above, it is impossible to conclude an agreement with Ukraine, because there is no politician in Kyiv or its environs who could not only sign it, but also implement it. Consequently, the only way out of the current situation is not the capitulation of Ukraine, but the complete forcible liquidation of Ukrainian statehood and an invitation to the West to negotiate a post-Ukrainian settlement.
With this formulation of the question, the West will have to choose between refusing to negotiate and continuing the confrontation in conditions where it no longer has a convenient space for war in the form of Ukraine, and agreeing to negotiations on the topic proposed by Russia, which in itself will secure Russia’s victory, since it will be proposed to negotiate the legitimization of a new post-Ukrainian geopolitical reality.
Refusing to negotiate means betting on a war with Russia (it will be impossible to revise the results of the SVO in any other way). But the West cannot fight Russia and even more so cannot defeat Russia – the owner of the largest and most modern nuclear arsenal and the only army with experience of a large modern war. At the same time, the West’s agreement to negotiate under the conditions of the destruction of Ukrainian statehood will mean its actual recognition of the new geopolitical reality, which is what we actually need to begin with. Recognizing the actual state of affairs, the West will eventually have to agree to its legal registration, but will begin to bargain shamelessly for bonuses for itself.
So, even in the event of capitulation, the liquidation of Ukraine cannot be avoided.

https://ukraina.ru/20250718/o-kapitulya ... 79303.html

Google Translator

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Russia is to blame for the locust invasion
July 28, 15:00

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They drove locusts into Ukraine using barrier detachments at gunpoint.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9979873.html

Geranium production plant expands
July 28, 17:04

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Satellite images of the drone manufacturing plant in Alabuga.

CNN continues to scare with the expansion of drone production in Alabuga. New factory buildings are being built for the future production of various types of drones (Geran remains the main product). This means that even more drones will be sent to Ukraine every day in the fall. The enemy predicts that up to 700-800 drones may participate in raids every day in the fall, and up to 1,500 per day by the end of the fall.

Attempts to prevent the expansion of production were unsuccessful. Drone raids did not lead to any slowdown in production. Now this is the largest UAV manufacturing plant in Russia. It all started with about 20 drones per day.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9979968.html

Losses of Leopard 2 tanks in the SVO zone
July 28, 19:08

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As expected, these vehicles also did not become some kind of panacea, as did the Abrams and Challengers.
Some quite naturally replenished Russian trophy collections.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9980210.html

Google Translator

******

Zelensky's mistake - zoomers win

Not all is lost - but much is. Operation figurehead vs Zelensky's '5-6 effective managers'. Parliamentary crisis? Kolomoisky plotting? Decrypting the encoded flash drives.
Events in Ukraine
Jul 28, 2025

Let’s return to the drama unfolding between Zelensky and the liberal nationalist opposition. Just a day after trying to subordinate the western-created anti-corruption organs with his July 22 bill 12414, Zelensky cracked - on July 23, he announced a new bill to reverse 12414. The new bill is to be voted on next week.

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Against Zelensky, a liberal nationalist alliance has formed. On the one hand, this includes ex-president Petro Poroshenko, threatened with jail by Zelensky for his supposed ‘receival of 10 suitcases of money from Moscow’.

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According to the latest rumors from Alexander Dubinsky, an imprisoned parliamentarian from Zelensky’s party, Poroshenko will be officially charged with treason on July 31. This is supposedly to be the day that parliament will vote for the new bill that will reverse bill 12414 and return NABU/SAPO’s independence. Dubinsky writes that Zelensky’s coterie believe that Poroshenko’s involvement in the Russiagate campaign against Trump will mean that Washington will stay silent.

The protests against bill 12414 have featured the presence or support of a number of politicians from Poroshenko’s party, influencers associated with it (such as the murderer Serhiy Sternenko), and members of Poroshenko’s youth organizations.

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And besides the ex-president, Poroshenko is allied with NGOs, anti-corruption organs and media publications funded by USAID (formerly), Tomas Fiala (currently), and Alexander Soros (also currently). I have written in detail on Zelensky’s threats of sanctions against Fiala and his pressure on various other members of the community that can either be called ‘anti-corruption warriors’ or ‘Sorosites’, depending on your persuasion.

Ukraine’s ‘robust civil society’ (as the copy-paste phrase in the western press goes) has been very active in opposing Zelensky’s latest antics.

Top anti-corruption warriors like head of the Centre for the Prevention of Corruption Daria Kaleniuk warned that Ukraine’s EU integration is threatened by the move against the anti-corruption organs. She even made the claim that Ukraine’s status as EU candidate was received in 2022 ‘precisely because of our accomplishments int he sphere of anti-corruption infrastructure’. Of course.

Meanwhile, head of the International Renaissance Foundation (the local affiliate of the Open Society Foundation) Oleksandr Sushko worried that bill 12414 was a sign that Kyiv is ‘moving along the Georgian scenario’. He claims that ‘not only EU-integration is at stake’.

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I’ve written about this dreadful Georgian scenario at length here. In short, it involves detente with Russia, the weakening of neoliberal ethnonationalists, and peace. A terrifying prospect for foreign-funded anti-corruption warriors.

But in the long-term, Zelensky has made a massive mistake by showing such indecision and weakness through this entire affair. Not only has he angered his liberal nationalist opponents, but his reversal of bill 12414 has betrayed his loyalists.

The Ukrainian publication strana.ua calls it Zelensky’s ‘worst strategic political defeat since he became president’. They recall that it was Yanukovych’s accession to the demands of the street protestors in 2013-14 that emboldened them. What was originally merely a protest in favor of joining the EU became a protest to topple Yanukovych and assume power.

Zelensky has always been terrified of street protests - it was in response to relatively small nationalist protests in 2019-20 ‘against capitulation’ that Zelensky caved to their demands and abandoned the peace platform that 70% of the country had voted for.

I suppose that’s show business - a desperate desire for attention from the audience - the ones that boo, not the everyman.

However, in the short-term, it still seems highly unlikely that Zelensky will actually be removed. Though a range of American senators have criticized Zelensky, the White House, State Department, and US ambassador have still said nothing. This was always clearly Zelensky’s bet - he knows that Trump despises the NABU for their role in sparking the Manafort ‘Russiagate’ saga back in 2016.

It’s only the hawks that are saying anything - Lindsay Graham, for instance. Or the daughter of the anti-Russian Keith Kellog - though Kellog himself has been silent about the NABU/SAPO affair.

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Operation figurehead

To understand what is really going on, we need to turn to a famous quote by the president.

In a famous December 2023 press conference, Zelensky told journalists that he depends on a ‘team of 5-6 effective managers’. When asked whether all of them were truly free of corruption, he answered that removing any of them would weaken the country.

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Zelensky’s liberal enemies are not trying to get rid of Zelensky. But they have made it their mission to turn Zelensky into a powerless figurehead. Their goal is to remove Zelensky’s beloved ‘5-6 effective managers’ by either charging them with corruption through the NABU, or forcing them to leave because of backlash over bill 12414.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... oomers-win
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Jul 30, 2025 12:06 pm

The logic of the moment: war and financing
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ July 30, 2025

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Following the example of Donald Trump, who is capable of abandoning negotiations and demanding the other party return to diplomacy or bombing a country and demanding a peace prize for it, Volodymyr Zelensky sought to escape the political mess that naively erupted last week by defending the two measures taken. In this war where rhetoric is more important than deeds and events do not necessarily correspond even minimally with published opinion, the Ukrainian president has presented both the legislation passed last week and the one he hopes to pass this week as an attempt to guarantee the independence of anti-corruption institutions—a battle he claims, against all evidence, to continue fighting. Zelensky's rhetoric remains firm, and his words are the same when he defines the law that placed the institutions created by and for Western control under the command of the Prosecutor General's Office, as when he demands that the Rada vote, just a few days later, to restore its autonomy.

The contradiction doesn't exist in the narrative, which was created based on necessity rather than reality. To slightly cover up the obvious backtracking by the president, who overestimated his strength and underestimated those of his opponents, Zelensky is now focusing on the idea that the changes were and continue to be solely aimed at avoiding Russian influence. It helps the president that the opposition's rhetoric has been exactly the same. Following the maxim that has been repeated mockingly so many times on Russian social media, one Russian agent accused another of being a Russian agent. While Zelensky's camp accused the anti-corruption agencies of having been infiltrated by Russia, the opposition responded by pointing out that the SBU, the body carrying out the raids, was the one working for Moscow. Logic would have it that would be enough, especially in a country that has made blaming Russia the only necessary argument to justify its policies, from the anti-terrorist operation it invented to start the war in Donbass to the banning of political parties, to the progressive restriction on the use of the Russian language, which is the vehicle of much of the country and even currently on the front lines among those fighting on the Ukrainian side.

Amid rumors that his Western allies would prefer to have Valery Zaluzhny at the helm of the country or the possibility that Zelensky could be considering parting ways with his right-hand man, Andriy Ermak, the target of media attacks arguing that the king is good but badly advised , the Ukrainian president is trying to turn the page. Ukrainian policy is currently based on two vectors: convincing the United States to apply the harshest possible measures against Russia and achieving rapid progress in the process of accession to the European Union. Both aspects are related not only to the idea of Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic path , its return to the European family or reintegration into the group of countries of which it has always been a part , but also to positioning itself to obtain the maximum possible benefit from the current situation. In other words, Ukraine needs to strengthen itself and weaken Russia to improve its situation on the front lines and thus be able to extract concessions from Russia and approach the European Union to ensure that the multi-million-dollar funding currently sustaining the Ukrainian state does not disappear when the war is no longer a factor.

An article in La Vanguardia , a manifestly pro-Ukrainian outlet, yesterday referred to the demographic crisis that the country has been experiencing since 1991, the year of independence and the restoration of capitalism, and estimated Ukraine's current population at 38 million, a figure that is possibly optimistic. Nostalgically recalling the Soviet-era rhetoric announcing that "we are already 50 million," Volodymyr Ishchenko lamented the current situation a few months ago and highlighted the catastrophic forecasts for the country's demographic future even if the war were to end soon. At this time, when pensions and social benefits are covered by foreign funding, the effect of the demographic crisis is not felt primarily in the lack of taxpayers to cover the country's economic needs, but in the perennial shortage of personnel to replenish the battered ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, whose stability allows the war to continue and keeps alive Ukrainian hopes for peace on their terms. Just yesterday, Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law allowing those over 60 to enlist—supposedly for non-combat duties. Coupled with efforts to recruit volunteers under 25 through financial incentives, Ukraine's desire to raise the military age to the maximum is evident. It is also evident that the Ukrainian government is willing to recruit men to continue the war as long as the United States continues to supply weapons and the European Union continues its policy of bearing the costs of the war and the maintenance of the state.

Achieving this situation, with a military flow that goes beyond a future ceasefire, whether definitive or not, and economic transfers to cover the needs of the state, something to which Kiev has made it clear it believes it has a right, requires accelerating the timescale for its accession to the European Union. This is not only a security measure , an approach that assumes that if Russia were to attack again, the rest of the member states would come to its defense and directly participate in the war—something that is more uncertain than Ukraine seems to think—but also a way of perpetuating the economic conditions. Ukraine's entry into the EU would make it the poorest country in the bloc and, therefore, a net recipient of EU revenue, the main incentive for Kiev to push for a privileged, tailor-made membership.

The current conditions are ideal for Kiev. On the one hand, tired of a negotiation it hasn't bothered to initiate and after signing an agreement so unbalanced in favor of the United States that some in the European Union establishment are calling it a humiliation and calling for its veto, Donald Trump, who has given Vladimir Putin ten days to end the war, seems willing to grant all his wishes in terms of military supplies to European countries for transfer to Ukraine. In addition to having an ally in Washington, Zelensky also has facilities in the European Union, presided over this semester by Denmark, one of Ukraine's strongest defenders on the continent. Its prime minister, Mette Fredericksen, with whom the Ukrainian president spoke yesterday, was the person who a few months ago uttered the phrase "peace can be more dangerous than war."

“I thanked Denmark for its tangible and steadfast support for Ukraine, which strengthens our defense capabilities and helps our people. Of course, we discussed Ukraine's European integration and the opening of the first round of negotiations. Denmark currently holds the Presidency of the EU Council. We must make the most of this time to implement all the necessary decisions,” Zelensky wrote in a report on their conversation. The intentions are clear, even if the reasons are not detailed. Ukraine needs guarantees that EU funding will remain stable, if not increase, in the future. To ensure this, the Ukrainian leader must, however, demonstrate that he is the partner the EU needs in Kyiv. It is no coincidence, then, that Zelensky added in his message that Ukraine is “doing everything possible to fulfill our obligations to the EU. The presidential bill guaranteeing the independence of anti-corruption bodies has already been registered with the Verkhovna Rada. I thank Denmark for its support. We agreed that parliament should vote on this bill without delay, as early as this week.” Zelensky subtly made it clear to the prime minister of the country holding the rotating presidency of the European Union that he understood the message, would reverse his flagship anti-corruption measure , and adopt the legislation Brussels is demanding. He will do so, moreover, with the speed required to erase the memory of the unpleasant disagreement or Ursula von der Leyen's call to impose a specific course of action.

The European Union, for its part, has also staked out its territory and sought to make clear the balance of power. Although Brussels has made the war in Ukraine the central axis of its policy, it is aware that kyiv needs the EU more than the bloc needs Ukraine. As was demonstrated on Sunday, when von der Leyen visited Donald Trump at his golf course to ratify an agreement in which the United States sets the conditions and the EU abides by it as a faithful partner hoping the gesture will serve to guarantee the friendship of whoever rules the relationship; whoever dictates the terms is whoever is in control.

“The European Union plans to cut a major financial aid package to Ukraine by €1.5 billion ($1.7 billion) after Kyiv said it had failed to meet all required reform milestones, a spokesman for the bloc's executive branch said. The war-torn country failed to meet three of the 16 targets needed to secure a full €4.5 billion disbursement under the Ukraine Facility, the bloc's financial support mechanism. As a result, Kyiv requested a partial disbursement of €3 billion in June, European Commission spokesman Guillaume Mercier wrote yesterday , announcing a new setback for Zelensky , who needed to show a victory to quell the criticism that first surfaced on the streets last week. EU warnings to Ukraine are always only temporary, although the current moment is particularly delicate. It is also significant that Brussels is willing to withhold a portion of the funding dedicated to sustaining the state, while maintaining and even increasing military supplies. Having failed in its attempt to force China to downgrade to the status of a second-tier power that accepts abusive conditions and having confirmed its inferiority to the United States, the EU is boasting about the newest candidate for accession, forcing kyiv to follow orders strictly—a symbolic gesture that comes at a time of the greatest internal and external pressure the Ukrainian president has faced since 2022.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/07/30/la-lo ... anciacion/

Google Translator

******

From cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The main points of Dmitry Peskov's statements:

- Kamchatka's preparedness for earthquakes has proven itself and demonstrated itself at a high level;

- The Kremlin is taking Trump's new statements about the threat of sanctions into account, and does not plan to give any more detailed comments for now;

- Space cooperation between Russia and the United States stands apart from political relations, despite all the difficulties, it is not interrupted;

- Russia does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries;

- The information from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service about the replacement of Zelensky with Zaluzhny speaks for itself; -

Putin will meet with the head of the Karachay-Cherkess Republic Temrezov in the Kremlin;

- Sandu's statement about Russia's interference in the elections in Moldova does not correspond to reality.

***

Colonelcassad
Sandu stated that Russia is allegedly preparing to interfere in the Moldovan parliamentary elections, although she cannot provide any evidence.

Meanwhile, the head of the Central Election Commission of the Republic, Karaman, stated: EU countries have the right to interfere in the elections in Moldova - this is different.

"There is a big difference between the European Union and other states. Moldova is already one step away from becoming a member of the EU, so the intervention of a country like France, even when it comes to direct financing of political forces, we do not consider this a form of electoral corruption and we do not consider it external interference."

These elections are scheduled to take place in the republic on September 28.

In response, the Moldovan president accused Telegram of spreading fakes, disinformation and vote-buying schemes. According to her, the platform has become a weapon for destabilizing the country.

***

Colonelcassad
Details of the strike in Chernihiv Oblast

At the training ground near the settlement of Goncharovskoye (60 km north of Kiev) there was a training camp for the BTGr 169th Training Center of the Ground Forces of the Strategic Reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which became the target of the Iskander OTRK strike.

The training ground includes a tactical field with an obstacle course, a race track, a tankodrome, a rifle field and much more.

According to sources on the ground, the training camp in the forest consisted of about 15 forty-person tents.

It is noteworthy that the official resource of the Ground Forces of Ukraine stated only 3 killed and 18 wounded servicemen ( the reaction of Ukrainian resources to this statement speaks for itself).

The strike was carried out in the evening, when all personnel were on site. The statement of the Ground Forces is "standard" after each successful flight about the creation of a "commission" for investigation (there was also after the strike on the training ground on June 22 in the area of the village of Davydiv Brod in the Kherson region).

As usual, the Armed Forces of Ukraine hide and understate losses.

***
Colonelcassad
What is known about the earthquake in Kamchatka:

- The magnitude of the earthquake was 8.5;

- Several people sought medical attention. According to the regional Ministry of Health, the condition of all patients is satisfactory;

- A tsunami threat has been declared on the coast of Avacha Gulf;

- A wall in a kindergarten fell in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The building is undergoing repairs, there was no one inside;

- There were interruptions in the Internet in Kamchatka Krai, the monitoring service NetBlocks reported;

- A tsunami threat has been declared for all Kuril Islands. In Severo-Kurilsk, the first wave of the tsunami passed without destruction, the head of the region reported;

- A tsunami 3 m high is heading towards Japan, people are urged to evacuate. A tsunami threat has also been declared in the United States.

- The magnitude of the earthquake in Kamchatka, according to various estimates, reached 8.7. This is the strongest earthquake since 1952, the branch of the Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences reported.

- Strong aftershocks with a magnitude of up to 7.5 after the earthquake in Kamchatka will continue for at least a month, the branch of the Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences said.

- Three tsunami waves hit the coastal zone of Severo-Kurilsk, the last one was the most powerful. Ships were torn from their moorings in the port and washed out into the strait, the mayor of the municipal district said.

- More than 50 seismic events were recorded in Kamchatka after an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.7. This was reported by the Kamchatka branch of the Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

- 2.7 thousand people were evacuated to safe areas on the Kuril Islands after the earthquake in Kamchatka, emergency services reported.

- A state of emergency was declared in the Severo-Kurilsk District of the Sakhalin Region after the earthquake and tsunami, authorities reported.

- A tsunami flooded a tent camp on the Kuril Islands. People were evacuated, there were no casualties, emergency services reported.

- The earthquake in Kamchatka was the strongest in the entire instrumental observation period, its magnitude was 8.8, the governor reported.

- Questions related to the provision of medical and other assistance, assessment of damaged property, placement in temporary accommodation centers can be asked by phone: 27-72-01.
https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*******

On the issues of rehabilitation of wounded veterans of the SVO
July 29, 17:10

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Material from a channel reader on the problems of the implementation of wounded veterans of the SVO.

On the issues of rehabilitation of wounded veterans of the SVO

In the fourth year of the Second World War in Russia, the issue of creating a state rehabilitation program for war veterans is stalled. Discussions in various formats by rehabilitation specialists show that effective mechanisms for the recovery and psychological readiness to return to normal civilian life for people who have been to war have not been developed. Be it soldiers or civilians who, by the will of fate, ended up in a combat zone. The issue has not been closed since the Great Patriotic War. Many of the participants in the military operations in Afghanistan, Chechnya, etc. have not been able to return to normal life.
This is a very difficult task. And the years of the Second World War show that, despite all the activity of specialists, the state has not created systemic conditions with the expected effect.
Meanwhile, military operations continue, and they will not end tomorrow. Therefore, the problem of rehabilitation will only worsen.

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In fact, this issue has not been worked out yet abroad. The effect of the loudly advertised rehabilitation programs in the so-called "developed countries" that are constantly in war mode is not able to demonstrate a particularly impressive result. A series of scandals and civil actions with surprising regularity for years occur in the fact of rehabilitation and socialization of veterans of the Vietnam War and later: Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, etc.
Therefore, it would be desirable that all searches, research, experiments in this area were in the field of close attention of the country's leadership. And local initiatives are not so rare and not effective.

Thus, from January 2023 to the present, a comprehensive integrated rehabilitation program using the Playstick method has been conducted in one of the military hospitals as an experiment. At one time, the head of the hospital took this experiment at his own risk, allowing the author of the method, Anatoly Laptev, into the holy of holies and allowing him to conduct his classes on a volunteer basis according to the Physical Rehabilitation Program developed on the basis of the S.M. Kirov Military Medical Academy.
The head of the physiotherapy department and specialized specialists of the hospital confirmed the positive dynamics and noted the originality of the approach. Over time, through the efforts of volunteers and participants in the Program, cable television appeared in the hospital, and even its own television channel, which broadcasts both exercises and complexes necessary for the restoration of the physical functions of the wounded, as well as various kinds of programs about the life of the hospital, about its inhabitants, of course, within the limits of what is acceptable, dictated by our harsh times. As well as reports on events and excursions, meetings with interesting people, etc.

In general, life in this hospital is noticeably different from similar institutions. This is confirmed by many warriors who have visited other medical institutions throughout Russia.
The creator of this program, in consultations with medical personnel and qualified specialists in the field of human psychological health, came to the conclusion that it was necessary to expand the program for the rehabilitation of wounded soldiers and, in order to stabilize their psycho-emotional balance, include sightseeing tours of St. Petersburg and museums, in which the St. Petersburg Committee on Culture actively helps.

Volunteers in the field of art joined in.
Thus, Yan (at his request, his last name is not given), who knows firsthand about the war and understands the problems of the soldiers, comes to the hospital every week and draws portraits of the wounded from life, which he immediately gives to the "models", which causes wild delight among the soldiers. According to the nurses, this is very helpful in raising and stabilizing the mental state of people who have received critical combat injuries.

Other artists draw from photographs of family members of the wounded, but drawing from life has a special therapeutic effect.
Artists conducting art therapy also take part in the program: Anna Shcherbakova, Svetlana Avilova. A huge amount of support is provided by Alexander Mokhov, a candidate of psychological sciences, who not only finds the words and knows how to create an atmosphere of friendliness, support and understanding among the soldiers, but also discreetly and unobtrusively conducts psychological relief sessions for the medical staff.

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For soldiers who have received critical combat injuries, the program, in addition to improving their own adaptation, gives the opportunity to find themselves in a new capacity, as a person capable of helping others.
Even guys with amputated limbs can conduct classes according to the Playstick system, and this has been tested and proven in practice.

To do this, it is necessary to provide an opportunity for a person with a combat injury that limits his choice of traditional professions to undergo a training course for a Playstick instructor at the G. A. Albrecht Educational Center of the Ministry of Labor of the Russian Federation, with subsequent employment at his place of residence.

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This can be done only through joint efforts, including the participation of the Ministry of Labor of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Defense. As a first step in implementing this program at a decent level with the expectation of a high effect at the end, it is necessary to create special conditions, say in one of the sanatoriums, where fighters who have expressed a desire could acquire the specialty of an instructor - a rehabilitation specialist using the Playstick method and subsequently use the acquired skills and abilities to work with SVO participants, their family members, and simply with citizens in the appropriate institutions at their place of residence.
These conditions have already been created or are in the process of being created everywhere. We are talking about rehabilitation centers for SVO participants.

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So, the centers have been created, the premises have been built and equipped.
But there is a categorical shortage of specialists in these centers at the moment!
Who else but a fellow veteran can find a common language with a veteran, motivating and involving him by his example and his professional skills in an active, full life!

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But how can we include the Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of Defense in this truly gigantic work, which cannot be accomplished through volunteer efforts?

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9982202.html

Google Translator

*****

Ben Aris: The war in Ukraine is over and its EU aspirations are dead for now
July 28, 2025 natyliesb
By Ben Aris, Intellinews, 7/24/25

Ukraine’s war with Russia increasingly looks like it is lost. Ukraine is losing ground in the battle with Russia, albeit slowly. At the same time, the formal negotiations on the first cluster in Kyiv’s EU accession bid were supposed to start on July 18, but that failed to happen. However, since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed a law that defangs Ukraine’s anti-corruption reforms it now looks unlikely the process will be restarted.

Ukraine’s situation has rapidly decayed in just the last week. It now appears that Zelenskiy has given up on any hope of joining the EU anytime soon and has refocused on consolidating his control over domestic politics. At the same time, the European Nato-pays for Ukraine weapons “big announcement” from July 14 is also rapidly unravelling, leaving Ukraine without the weapons it desperately needs, especially air defence ammo. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) has recently suffered a string of setbacks on the battlefield that bode ill for the rest of the summer’s campaign.

AFU losing ground

The Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) retook full control of the Luhansk region for the first time since the start of the war on July 1, and at the weekend, as yet unconfirmed reports say that Pokrovsk fell to Russian forces on July 22, a key logistical hub that supplies the AFU’s entire eastern front line.

Ukraine has fought heroically for the last three years, surprising everyone by holding off the bigger and more powerful AFR against all odds.

But despite Trump’s efforts to broker a peace, the ceasefire talks are dead. At the third Istanbul meeting on July 23, nothing of significance was discussed, let alone agreed.

“The Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul predictably ended with nothing but another prisoner exchange. The Ukrainians again proposed a meeting between Zelenskiy and Putin, Trump and Erdogan, but in response they got the predictable answer: first, they need to agree on all contentious issues, and the meeting of the leaders will be a formality for signing the treaty,” The Bell commented in a note. “Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s announced plan to rearm Ukraine is falling apart at the seams – its only understandable part, the delivery of Patriot air defence systems to Kyiv, will not take place before the spring of 2026.”

Ukraine continues to suffer from a chronic shortage of men, money and materiel. As the war drags into its fourth year, the tide is turning inexorably against Kyiv as heroism and innovation give way to the simple equation of who has more men and the greater industrial production capability. Ukraine loses to Russia on both counts. It was Russia and America’s ability to out-produce Germany and make more planes, tanks and bullets – the famous lend-lease programme – to defeat the Nazis that eventually proved decisive in WWII. Putin put the entire Russian economy on a war footing in the first year of the war and is now reaping the dividends. The EU has only just started talking about making those investments with VCL’s ReArm speech (video) on March 4, after it became clear the Trump administration would close the US security umbrella that Europe has sheltered under since the start of the Cold War. Moreover, the European defence sector is suffering from decades of woeful under-investment and is in no position to replace the US held, as was described in detail in the Draghi report.

Russia is being fully supported by its allies; Ukraine is not. A reported 28 containers of arms and ammo arrived in Moscow last week from North Korea, and a new decoy drone has reportedly appeared on the battlefield this month that is made entirely out of Chinese components. The Russian Ministry of Defence just released video of a drone factory that is entirely based on upgraded Iranian technology. Russia will soon be in a position where it can launch 2,000 Shahed explosive drones a day, according to German intelligence, up from the 750 it current uses.

As bne IntelliNews has been reporting for the last three years, despite the outbreak of the largest war since WWII in its backyard, the EU has persistently refused to sign off on the defence sector procurement contracts needed for private-sector arms-makers to upgrade their factories, and is now scrambling to expand production. For example, the Franco-British power Storm Shadow missiles Ukraine has been using went out of production 15 years ago and manufacture will only be restarted sometime later this autumn.

Ukraine has been holding its own in the drone war that started in early 2023, but it has lost the missile war that is currently underway since May. Russia now produces some 1,200 missiles a year, whereas Ukraine makes only a handful. That makes Kyiv entirely dependent on its Western allies for things such as the Patriot air defence, which is the only weapon it has that can bring Russian missiles down, but with US President Donald Trump’s exit Ukraine becomes defenceless. Even if the US fully equipped Ukraine with all the Patriot batteries it wants – and Trump has made it clear he will not send any US Patriot batteries to Ukraine – then US weapons manufacturer Lockheed Martin only makes some 600-650 Patriot interceptor rockets a year, less than half the number of missiles Russia can fire.

Increasingly, Ukraine’s allies are admitting the only effective countermeasure to Russia’s growing arsenal of missiles is to strike launch sites and production facilities deep inside Russian territory with Nato-supplied long-range missiles – something that the West has repeated ruled out for fear of provoking a direct clash between Russia and Nato.

EU bid looks dead

The EU was due to open the first cluster to formal EU accession negotiations at the end of last week on July 18, but in a long interview with European Pravda, then EU Accession envoy Olha Stefanishyna admitted that “multiple” countries – not just Hungary – had concerns about Ukraine’s commitment and the talks did not begin.

Stefanishyna told European Pravda, that the EU is “not currently prepared to take the decisions” Ukraine expects, and she was reassigned the same day and became the special envoy to Washington.

Ukraine’s EU accession bid has now stalled, and it suddenly became a lot more uncertain if it will ever be restarted after Zelenskiy pushed through and signed into law the highly controversial Law 12414 on July 22 that guts Ukraine’s anti-corruption reforms.

Zelenskiy immediate faced a backlash from his EU partners. There was a mild rebuke in a joint statement from G7 ambassadors in the first hours saying they were “closely following” the situation. But within 48 hours those comments became rapidly more strident.

“As a corrupt country Ukraine will not make it into the EU,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on July 24. “The fastest way for Ukraine to lose the support of both the EU member states and the public in the member states is to go back to the bad old days of corruption.”

Analysts have pointed out that reassigning Stefanishyna, who has been talking to Brussels for more than five years, at this crucial point in the EU talks will only undermine Brussel’s confidence further and suggests that Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) has given up for now on beginning formal talks about becoming a member of the EU.

Protests in Kyiv and other cites immediately broke out (video) following the passage of Law 12414, even before Zelenskiy had signed the bill into law later the same day. By the second day the protest crowd swelled forcing Zelenskiy to start looking for compromises.

On July 23, the president suggested new legislation to defuse the rapidly escalating tensions between the government and the citizens. He gave the heads of law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies two weeks to prepare the necessary legislative changes to “optimise work without duplicating functions,” according to Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko.

“The President gave us two weeks for meetings, for negotiations … so that in two weeks we could come to him and say how we will work. What changes are needed so that everyone can work without duplicating functions,” Klymenko said at a meeting with journalists on July 24. However, few believe at this point Zelenskiy will back down and cancel Law 12414.

While most of the attention has been focused on how the new law will defang Ukraine’s anti-corruption bodies, the more worrying aspect of the law is it concentrates all law enforcement power in the hands of the president alone. As some commentators are anticipating a Ukrainian military defeat in the near term, they speculate that Zelenskiy is gathering more threads of power to himself to cope with the inevitable public backlash if he sues for peace.

“Have we woken up in a police state today?” asked Ihor Zhdanov, the former Minister of Youth, in an editorial posted by Interfax on July 23.

“The adoption of yesterday’s law is not just a restriction on the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO). The matter is much more serious,” he said. “Today, the “presidential power pool” already includes the Prosecutor General’s Office, the State Bureau of Investigation, the Security Service of Ukraine and the National Police. NABU, SAPO and Bureau of Economic Security (BES), with no director appointed yet, are on the way.”

“In other words, all the country’s security forces are already under the control of the head of state, who is also the Supreme Commander-in-Chief under martial law. Don’t you think, gentlemen, that we have already woken up in a police state?” said Zhdanov.

Georgia and Hungary

Zelenskiy’s decision to concentrate all policing power in his own hands with Law 12414 is seen as a red line for the EU. Brussels was reportedly already having doubts about Ukraine’s bid before the law, but its rushed adoption is a red line for Brussels. Like Georgia’s adoption of the so-called Kremlin-inspired “foreign agents” law that sparked mass protests in March, Ukraine’s Law 12414 will certainly stop the EU accession process, as it has done with Georgia, nominally another EU candidate, and could even bring down sanctions on Kyiv.

The practical upshot of the clash is that Moldova’s bid to join the EU, which was granted candidate status at the same time as Ukraine in June 2022, will now be decoupled in order not to penalise Chisinau which remains on course to meet Brussels demands.

However, both Georgia and Ukraine’s visa-free deals with the EU, one of the most valued wins from the EU accession process, are not thought to be in danger for the moment, say analysts. Visa-free status is Brussels’ trump card in any future negotiations, as it allows European diplomats to threaten the two governments with direct pressure from their own populations if Brussels threatens to rescind the right of unfettered entry to the EU. EU foreign policy chief and former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has already threatened to play this card in Georgia’s case.

European Pravda reports that there were secret negotiations between Kyiv and Brussels in the run-up to the July 18 cluster negotiation deadline.

The European Commission had been grappling with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s veto of Ukraine’s accession bid, but was slow to realise that whereas Orban had used his power to block the process as leverage to extort concessions from Brussels over issues like access to Russian oil exports, his position has hardened significantly more recently.

Having dominated Hungarian politics for a decade, Orban’s Fidesz party is now trailing in the polls to the opposition Tisza Party and its leader Peter Magyar, a former Fidesz insider who has become a prominent critic of Orbán’s government ahead of the crucial 2026 general election. Orban has built his opposition to Ukraine’s accession to the EU into the heart of his re-election campaign, and so is unlikely to make any concessions at all.

That has proved to be a huge problem for Kallas and the other EU leaders that were keen to bring Ukraine into the EU as fast as possible. The accession process is usually long and arduous, often taking a decade to complete, but the EC has made numerous concessions to accelerate Ukraine’s bid that could have been completed by 2030, according to European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos when she spoke only last week.

Not anymore. Kallas came up with a Plan B that boiled down to starting the negotiation process without Budapest’s approval, as under the EU Treaty a unanimous vote is not needed to open negotiations on the six chapters, only to close them. However, European Pravda reports that several members were nervous about this approach, as it is legally questionable. Budapest would almost certainly sue the commission – and most likely win – but that process would take at least three years, with a good chance of Orban no longer being in power.

Her alternative plan, to strip Hungary of its voting rights under Article 7 of the EU treaty, is even more legally dubious and if successful would have the side-effect of undermining the entire EU structure, which is founded on unanimous agreements amongst member states.

As bne IntelliNews has reported, the EU is already in danger of falling apart thanks to the combined pressure of the polycrisis and the war in Ukraine, but if Ukraine now drops out, Europe’s prestige will only be further damaged and the fissures will widen further. Last year the EU acted in concert with the US to oppose Russia; this year it has been reduced to the “E3” – the UK, France and Germany – leading the drive to support Ukraine and the US has taken itself out of the game completely.

All these problems were already undermined the attempt to start EU accession negotiations, before Zelenskiy’s Law 12414. According to European Pravda, after the June 18 deadline passed, Bankova seems to have made a decision to give up on the process, which would have taken a decade anyway, and focus on Ukraine’s domestic politics and on lobbying the White House instead.

That partly inspired last week’s Cabinet reshuffle, which as bne IntelliNews reported, downgraded the EU accession drive and refocused Bankova’s diplomatic efforts on bring Washington back to Kyiv’s side. Stefanishyna, one of Bankova’s most experienced diplomats, was appointed a special envoy to Washington and the new Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko is both a Zelenskiy-loyalist and also well-known in Washington, where she successfully brokered the difficult minerals deal with Trump administration that was signed on April 30.

Banking on Trump to come to the rescue looks like a very risky strategy, but Zelenskiy is rapidly running out of other options.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/07/ben ... d-for-now/

Ukraine War Will Now Be Resolved on Battlefield: John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
July 29, 2025 natyliesb



https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/07/ukr ... nn-diesen/

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Job Application à la Ukraine

An aspirant for the presidency of Ukraine presents his job application via Vogue-Ukraine (in Russian).

Image

Writes Strana (machine translation):

According to the article's liner notes, in the column, the ambassador "discusses the roots of identity, the power of unity, and the main historical lessons that Ukrainians are forced to learn right now." Zaluzhny also writes a lot about himself: his childhood with a quote from the teacher Vasily Sukhomlinsky, traditions in the family, the first embroidery.
In his opinion, the citizens of Ukraine have learned several important lessons in recent years:

"we did not allow ourselves to be deceived, because we are the people and the state";
the greatness and power of the enemy are not always what their leaders and propagandists imagine them to be;
a neighbor who helps you in trouble helps himself first of all;
"the enemy, who has not broken you on the battlefield, will immediately begin to break you in the rear", only more insidiously;
there are no miracles in war.
The magazine accompanied Zaluzhny's column with a photo of him as an imposing bourgeois.


One wonders who is the one who really pushing him.

Posted by b at 16:46 UTC | Comments (17)

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/07/j ... l#comments
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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