Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Fri May 02, 2025 2:15 pm

100 Days of Change, the United States Has Changed the World, and We Have Fallen Into the "Rabbit Hole"
Chinese writer Yan Mo
Karl Sanchez
May 01, 2025

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Pepe Escobar initially pointed to this great essay whose content is clear from the title. Eventually, Trump’s behavior is compared to some of China’s past Emperors whose actual doings aren’t critical to know as the context provides enough information. And yes, as with Lewis Carrol’s two books about Alice and her Wonderland, there’s plenty of humor and “gee you know he’s right” moments. Today’s chat between Nima, and Drs. Hudson and Wolff also discussed the many oddities of Trump’s behavior that fit rather well with the prose that follows.
It has only been 100 days since Trump took office, and it seems that 10 years have passed, the United States has changed the world, and we have fallen into the "rabbit hole".

The rabbit hole of Alice in Wonderland is now described as falling into a bizarre world. There is nothing better for the world than a rabbit hole to account for what happened in 100 days. In the rabbit hole, truth and its opposite can be truth at the same time. In the days to come, there will be many interesting things.

Trump's character, first and foremost, the white rabbit in a vest and a pocket watch, hurriedly leads the curious us down the rabbit hole. Then he became Humpty Dumpty, arrogantly saying, "When I use a word, it means what I choose, no more, no less".

He said that the trade deficit between China and the United States is one trillion US dollars, which means one trillion US dollars, no more, no less. He said again, TSMC has increased its capital by 300 billion, which means 300 billion, no more, no less. He also said that the Panama Canal is American, and now it has been "recovered", which means that the United States has been recovered, no more, no less.

Mr. Eggman uses a lot of data and words, the meaning of which is the meaning of his choice, and has nothing to do with the original meaning of the word and the real data, which is our first bizarre experience in the rabbit hole.

On the first day of his inauguration, Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on his neighbors Canada and Mexico, and Canada and Mexico could not believe it, especially the Canadian people, who could not accept that their close neighbors would wield the tariff stick against them, and the US-Mexico-Canada agreement was like a piece of waste paper. It was as if they had walked up to a big mushroom and were coldly thrown by the caterpillar with a philosophical question: "Who are you?" "Are you...... I am...... You and I ...... Who am I? Where am I? A bunch of inexplicable question marks hung on the Canadian's forehead.

On his second day in office, Trump signed an executive order confirming that there are only two genders. American teenagers with 97 genders are confused, and Trump now plays the moral duchess and says to teenagers—never imagine yourself different from what others see you are, or you will not be what others think you should be.

On the ninth day of his inauguration, Trump reformed the federal employment system, a large number of civil servants were furloughed and fired, and people who had lost their livelihood asked Trump's Cheshire cat: Please tell me, where do I go? The Cheshire Cat said that it was all the same, no problem, as long as you went far enough, you would definitely get somewhere.

On the 25th day of his inauguration, Trump met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came with a big gift of lowering tariffs and buying more fossil fuels and armaments, and asked Trump the same question: Tell me, where do I go? The Cheshire Cat always replied that if you go far enough, you will definitely get somewhere. I don't know if Modi had an epiphany, but in the rabbit hole, there is no answer to the question, and the answer is made up of one question after another.

On the 40th day of his inauguration, Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, and he now plays the Queen of Hearts, threatening to cut off people's heads at every turn. The Queen said to Zelensky, you have no cards in your hand! Only then did Zelensky know that he was in the White House card room, so he had to helplessly say "I don't want to play cards", and scolded Trump in his heart: "You are just a deck of cards"

On the 43rd day of his inauguration, Trump and TSMC CEO Wei Zhejia announced in the Roosevelt Room of the White House that TSMC would increase its capital by 100 billion in the United States. Since that day, the Queen of Hearts has been carrying TSMC's head everywhere to show off, and I won 100 billion without spending a dime. No, 200 billion, no, 300 billion!

On his 62nd day in office, Trump thanked Musk for helping astronauts trapped in the "rabbit hole" return to Earth. They went on a business trip for 8 days but worked overtime for 9 months, and experienced an exciting journey because of the failure of the Boeing spacecraft. The day after returning home, Boeing was awarded a major contract to produce America's next-generation fighter jets. Astronauts should be happy for future fighter pilots, because only Boeing's products can take humans down the rabbit hole.

On his 68th day in office, the Trump administration notified Congress that it would formally shut down the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), an organization that not only aids foreign countries but also instigates color revolutions. Foreign netizens who receive money to work for the United States find themselves playing card soldiers in the garden and must secretly paint white roses red because they accidentally plant the wrong flowers, and if they don't, they will be beheaded by the Queen of Hearts.

On the 73rd day of his inauguration, Trump announced the reciprocal tariff rate, and the world was in an uproar, everyone was pondering the ridiculous "reciprocity" algorithm, Trump and Navarro are now playing "griffons" and "fake turtles", they say that they learn arithmetic not Addition, Subtraction, Multiplication, Division, but Ambition, Distraction , Uglification, and Derision.

On this day, investors on Wall Street and around the world finally found themselves falling down the rabbit hole, their money would evaporate, and their lives would not be guaranteed, so they began to sell US stocks, US bonds and US dollars. Analysts say it's an unprecedented "sell-off of America," and that's something that only happens down the rabbit hole.

On the 80th day of his inauguration, Trump announced a 90-day moratorium on so-called "reciprocal tariffs" (except for China), and he now plays the Mad Hatter who offends time, and the offended time is always stuck at the tea party where US stocks, US bonds and US dollars are sold off in large quantities. How boring it is to drink afternoon tea endlessly; Trump has to keep imposing ineffective tariffs on China to "pass the time".

On the 92nd day of his inauguration, Trump threatened to fire Powell in order to force the Fed to cut interest rates so that time could not be moved forward, because this afternoon tea was too much to drink. The Mad Hatter attacked Powell as "Mr. Too Late", but it was he who offended "Time." The president's pressure on the Fed chair caused the market to collapse even more, and the situation of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar accelerated its deterioration.

On the 93rd day of his inauguration, financial markets were in deep anxiety over Powell's threat of dismissal, and Trump changed his tune and said he had no intention of firing Powell. On the same day, Trump, who has always been tough on China, suddenly denied that he was tough on China, and instead emphasized that he would be friendly. The world gradually figured out the character of Queen of Hearts's "sentencing first, then tried", and no longer worried about what punishment she was sentenced to, because the prosecution had not yet "collected evidence".

On my 100th day on the job, I didn't know what to expect because it was a rabbit hole.

Which change in Chinese history is most similar to Trump's change?

In the world civilization, perhaps only China knows best that Trump's change of law is ultimately a chicken feather, because in our long history, there is only one successful case of law change, that is, the change of Tang Taizong led Fang Xuanling and Du Ruhui, which created the rule of Zhenguan. The main reason for the success of Tang Taizong's reform was the gradual adjustment of the system.

The other changes failed because they were rushed and the New Deal was short-lived. But even the failed changes in China's history have not been more urgent or larger than Trump's. So, in just 100 days, the world has become aware that the odds of Trump losing are very high unless he changes course.

From a historical point of view, although the purpose is to save the country, the essence of the reform of the law is actually a large-scale power struggle. The script is usually that an emperor wants to change the status quo, so he enlists the help of some people on the fringes of the power spectrum to fight the powerful ministers in the core of power and the existing interest structure behind them.

The vigorous and resolute action in the early stage of the reform of the law has indeed brought about a new atmosphere. But usually the powerful ministers who are being fought just sit on the cold bench and are not defeated, and the interest structure prompts them to unite and wait for the opportunity to fight back. The timing of the destruction of the results of the reform is often after the death of the emperor and the transfer of power. Political "change" is greater than "change of law", so the executor of the change of law will be wiped out together with the new policy.

China's changes have always been infighting, but Trump has drawn almost the entire world into a power struggle. It stands to reason that the larger the scale, the higher the failure rate, because the various power relations are intricate, the variables are proportional to the scale of the struggle, and it is easy to get out of control. The more out of control, the more bizarre the phenomenon, so much so that the world seems to have fallen down a rabbit hole.

So, which of Trump's changes in Chinese history is most like?

Excluding Fang Xuanling, Guan Zhong, Shang Ying, Wang Mang, Wang Anshi, Zhang Juzheng, and Wuxu Six Gentlemen, these cases of law change can all find similarities with Trump. However, I personally believe that Trump is more like Wang Mang's "Togu reform".

"There are only two genders", which is normal in other countries, seems to have become an outdated classification in the United States, so Trump wants to "togu", return to the traditional track, and suppress progressive ideology.

In addition, Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with the status quo by admiring several previous US presidents. For example, Jackson, the seventh president, was praised by Trump for his populist and anti-establishment style of governance. Another example is the 25th president, McKinley, known for his high tariffs, annexation of Hawaii, and control of Cuba and the Philippines, which made Trump fall for himself. "It's still a good old day," Trump and Wang Mang empathize.

Wang Mang was the most special emperor in China other than Wu Zetian, and his "anti-establishment" was manifested in the implementation of bold institutional innovations in the name of "retro". His "populism" is manifested in the extremism of Confucian culture to subdue (buy) almost all the intellectuals in power. These two main features of Wang Mang's reform are similar to Trump's, and they also involve the people of the time in a rabbit hole, and absurdity covers reality.

In terms of foreign policy, Wang Mang advocated "Huairou Anbian" and opposed the use of force, but in practice, he frequently interfered in the internal affairs of other countries, demanded the obedience of foreign races, and copied his new political order, and the result was a war with the Xiongnu and Goguryeo. Although Trump is very rude to foreign countries on the surface and feels very ungentle, he is very similar to Wang Mang at the level of implementation, mainly asking other countries to obey the new order and abandon the old order.

Wang Mang is as happy as Trump, and this kind of political leader is often surrounded by sycophants, and the characteristic of sycophants is that they can't do anything except pat on the back. Wang Mang's accession to the throne with "three resignations and nine resignations", and sycophants made up Fu Rui auspicious omen, which is the same as the American evangelicals calling Trump "God's chosen man" and the Republican Party National Congress calling "God's chosen man", the ancient and modern scenes.

However, after ascending the throne, the emperor had only a handful of "adults in the room", and those who were a little talented were all squeezed out of the core of decision-making. But there is one thing that Trump may be luckier than Wang Mang, that is, less than 100 days in office, Trump found out that the sycophants were bad. The main reason is that China is tough enough and resolutely opposed, and the American creditors are also clever enough to withdraw when they should withdraw, and they quickly exposed the mistakes of the White House.

As we all know, the failure of Wang Mang's reform of the law can be summed up in four points: ideals are divorced from reality, policies lack operability, anger the elite and interest strata, and foreign relations are broken. These four points can probably also summarize the situation of Trump's 100-day change.

Internally, it is Wall Street that Trump is angry with, including his key financiers, and it is the hegemony of the dollar that is being undermined. Externally, China and the EU are rigid about the "new order", and other countries will inevitably turn to the sidelines, because no one is interested in the new order, but they have to make a false deal with Trump for a while.

100 days later

Having said that, we can't underestimate Trump, even though the law has changed for 100 days and is full of slots, but Washington still benefits. Among other things, Trump plundered $5.2 trillion in domestic and foreign capital in 100 days, five times more than Biden's 4 years in office.

While we know that this is a maximization of the "aftermath of America" and that the negative consequences may be five times greater than under Biden, Trump still has more than 1,300 days to adjust his policy, and it would be unwise to underestimate his flexibility.

Let's not forget that we are down the rabbit hole, and it is not surprising that US policy has made a 180-degree turn. From China's point of view, Trump still has cards in his hand, and he is very fickle. The fairy tale characters listed in this article, including the Queen of Hearts, the Caterpillar, the Mad Hatter, and the Duchess, are all changeable and take crookedness for common sense. As I said earlier, Trump's turn to China is also in his strategy toolbox.

To deal with fickle characters, you must keep your distance, never promise anything easily, and don't trust the other party, only the benefits that can be realized immediately are worth negotiating, and you must confirm that the benefits have entered your own pocket before you can give an exchange. The point is that you can reciprocate the peach, but you can't ask for five cents, I'll give a piece, and the reciprocal exchange is the top.

The world down the rabbit hole is unpredictable, but as long as we stand our ground and believe in it, we can enjoy this amazing journey. [My Emphasis]
I must applaud Yan Mo’s imagination and intellect go construct this tale straddling fantasy and reality. One point Yan fails to mention is the fact that Trump’s Outlaw US Empire is on its downward slope and isn’t nearly as strong as it was even during Trump’s first term. Trying to entice more into the military while drastically mauling the Veterans Administration—almost 100,000 jobs and vital programs axed so far—is but one example of Trump’s rabbit hole policies. As many are pointing out, there’s no certainty at all with anything, so rational planning can’t be done. Some push-back is happening, but the public must realize that the Ds are merely Trump-lite and serve the same interests, which aren’t the general publics. The mid-term elections are 1.5 years away, and a great deal of damage can and will be done before the opportunity to change the Congressional chemistry arrives. That it takes a Chinese writer to inform Americans about Trump’s genuine nature is also a shame.

https://karlof1.substack.com/p/100-days ... ted-states

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Trump Tops Tariffs On China With Sanctions
This will be fun:

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President Trump has announced to put secondary sanctions, i.e. prohibition of any commerce exchange with the U.S., on any country that imports oil or oil products from Iran.

This is just another click on the sanction ratchet. The last ones, six or so weeks ago, had no serious impact:

The tightened U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil flows under the Trump Administration’s renewed maximum pressure campaign have created chaos in Iran’s oil exports to its single biggest buyer, China.
However, Iranian exports to China, which buys around 90% of the Islamic Republic’s oil, continue as traders and middlemen rearrange tanker flows and increase ship-to-ship transfers, especially offshore Malaysia, vessel-tracking analysts say.

The latest U.S. sanctions have managed to disrupt trade as the number of non-sanctioned tankers is steadily falling. But exports from Iran to China continue at a rate similar to those of the past few months ...


The original 'maximum pressure' sanctions were solely aimed at Iran:

The Trump Administration .. is actively seeking to collapse these exports – currently estimated at 1.5 million bpd-1.6 million bpd – by ratcheting up pressure on the financial system and governments in the region, which aid Iran’s oil export efforts and oil revenue collection.
“We will close off Iran's access to the international financial system by targeting regional parties that facilitate the transfer of its revenues. Treasury is prepared to engage in frank discussions with these countries,” Secretary Bessent said at the Economic Club of New York last week.

“We are going to shut down Iran's oil sector and drone manufacturing capabilities.”


That did not work as expected. The new secondary sanctions are targeting Iran's best customer - China.

I have no doubt that China, despite the threat of secondary sanctions, will continue to buy oil from Iran.

Trump already had to make carve-outs for automobile parts and other irreplaceable stuff from the sky-high tariffs he had imposed on products from China. There are also exemptions for pharmaceutical precursors and products. U.S. healthcare depends on those products from China.

As China is unlikely to give in the secondary sanctions related to Iran will make these exemptions irrelevant.

The fun part of this will come when Trump will have to retreat from it as soon as the results of his bluster threaten to hurt the U.S. economy.

Posted by b on May 2, 2025 at 8:46 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/05/t ... l#comments

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With Trump in the White House, US Influence in Latin America Is on Decline
May 1, 2025

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US President Donald Trump with an US flag and a map in the background. Photo: The Communist.


By Steve Ellner – Apr 26, 2025

Indignation and resistance to Donald Trump’s bullying, deportations, and economic reprisals are spreading across Latin America. Though the mainstream media has amply covered pushback from Canada and Western Europe and the street protests and town halls in the United States, along with the AOC-Bernie Fighting Oligarchy tour, however, it has not given much attention to the growing defiance to the south.

Opposition to Trump throughout Latin America is taking on many forms. In some places like Mexico, presidents have forged a united front over the issue of tariffs, which includes prominent businesspeople and some leaders of the opposition. Diplomatic initiatives by other presidents, such as Lula of Brazil, are aiming to build a unified Latin American stand against Trump’s measures by shoring up regional organizations, principally the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).

The opposition has also included street mobilizations. Most recently, Panamanians reacted to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s visit on April 12 by taking to the streets. The National Front for the Defense of Economic and Social Rights (Frenadeso), one of the main sponsors, denounced Washington’s veiled schemes to establish four military bases in the country. The protests intimidated right-wing President José Raúl Mulino; though called a “traitor” by Frenadeso, Mulino warned Hegseth of the danger of implementing the plan. “Do you want to create a mess?” he warned and added “what we’ve put in place here would set the country on fire.” Frenadeso also denounced Mulino’s capitulation to pressure from Washington that resulted in Panama’s exit from China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Three issues have galvanized the pushback against Trump in Latin America: tariffs, deportations, and Washington’s policy of exclusion. The latter includes ostracizing Cuba and Venezuela from the Latin American community of nations as well as rhetoric and actions designed to drive China from the continent.

Trump’s policies have also intensified the polarization in Latin America that pits left and center-left governments against the far right, which is closely aligned with Washington and Trump in particular. For that reason, the indignation produced by Trump’s inflammatory remarks on the Panama Canal and Gulf of Mexico and his policy of mass deportation and tariffs to likely to strengthen the Latin America left at the expense of the Right.

They also stimulate anti-Americanism, which according to Bloomberg columnist Juan Pablo Spinetto is “gaining new life in Latin America.” Spinetto writes that “the harshness of his take-it-or-leave-it approach will . . . give new force to the anti-Americanism . . . undermining . . . interest in cooperating and establishing common goals.”

In one example of the repudiation of one of the many heinous measures taken by the Trump administration, the prime minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, thanked Cuban international health workers for their assistance during the COVID-19 epidemic. On February 25, Secretary of State Marco Rubio had announced sanctions against government officials and their families who were “complicit” in promoting the Cuban health missions — the measure also threatens “complicit” nations with trade restrictions. Mottley announced that she would not back down in her defense of the Cuban missions and “if the cost of it is the loss of my visa to the US, then so be it. But what matters to us is principles.”

To make matters worse for Rubio, in a joint session in Jamaica after the secretary of state hailed the measure against the Cuban health missions, prime minister Andrew Holness in effect rebuked him. Holness said, “In terms of Cuban doctors in Jamaica, let us be clear, the Cuban doctors in Jamaica have been incredibly helpful to us.” Similar statements were made by the prime ministers of Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Defeat at the OAS
On March 10, Albert Ramdin of Suriname was elected secretary general of the Organization of American States (OAS) after his only competitor, Paraguay’s foreign minister Rubén Ramírez Lezcano, dropped out of the race. In its reporting on the event, the mainstream media largely took their cue from the claim by White House envoy for Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Carone, that “the OAS Secretary General will be an ally of the United States.” He added that Ramdin’s Suriname government is “on the right path economically. . . . That’s bringing in foreign investments that’s non-Chinese.”

Nothing could be further from the truth. Ramdin opposes US sanctions and favors dialogue with the Venezuelan government of Nicolás Maduro. In contrast, his rival, Ramírez, had pledged to promote regime change in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.

Furthermore, China, with its OAS observer status, had supported Ramdin’s candidacy, while the right-wing, pro-Trump governments of Argentina and El Salvador backed Ramírez. Ramdin defends the “one China” policy; in a 2006 trip to Beijing, he stated that his goal was to “expand and deepen” the relationship between China and the OAS, a strategy that he evidently continues to support. In contrast, Paraguay is the only South American country with diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Ramdin owes his nomination not only to the unanimous support of Caribbean nations, but also the joint endorsement by the progressive governments of Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, Bolivia, and Chile. It was reported that Lula’s initiative was a response to Ramírez’s trip to Washington where he met with Trump advisors, after which he visited Mar-a-Lago. There he posed for photo ops with Trump and Elon Musk, which were seen as a virtual endorsement of his OAS candidacy.

Rubio’s congratulations notwithstanding, Ramdin’s replacement of Washington lackey Luis Almagro as OAS secretary general can’t be to the liking of the Trump administration. The right-wing Latin American press was more up front. Argentina’s Derecha Diario reported that Ramdin, with a “troubling trajectory aligned with socialism . . . represents a threat to the independence of the OAS and seeks to benefit the leftist dictatorial regimes in Latin America.” The article went on to claim that Ramdin has admitted that “Suriname’s diplomatic missions . . . work ‘hand in hand’ with those of China.” The same line on Ramdin is being pushed by Congressman Chris Smith (R-NJ), senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and cochair of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC).

If the past is any indication, the Trump administration may attempt to blackmail the OAS by threatening to reduce its contributions to the organization, currently representing 60 percent of its budget. In fact, some Trump advisors have privately raised that possibility, and Washington has already frozen “voluntary contributions” to the OAS. The prospect of the United States completely pulling out of what it considers to be an unfriendly OAS would, however, dovetail with the vision of Mexico’s former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who favors replacing the OAS with a Latin American organization modeled after the European Union.

Challenging the hegemon
After Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports, Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum called a rally for March 6 at Mexico City’s central plaza to announce retaliatory measures. Although Trump postponed the tariffs, Sheinbaum held the rally anyway and converted it into a festival to celebrate Washington’s turnaround.

In front of an estimated crowd of 350,000 Mexicans, some of whom held signs reading “Mexico Is to Be Respected,” Sheinbaum said: “We are not extremists, but we are clear that . . . we cannot cede our national sovereignty . . . as a result of decisions by foreign governments or hegemons.”

The showdown with Trump has helped forge a “common front,” a term used by Francisco Cervantes Díaz, president of Mexico’s main business organization, who pledged that at least three hundred businesspeople would attend the March 6 rally. Some members of the Mexican opposition to Sheinbaum and her ruling Morena party also took part.

But the nation’s two main traditional parties, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the National Action Party (PAN), refused to unite behind the president. At the outset, they blamed the governing party’s drug policy for triggering Trump’s measures. Then the PRI-PAN’s standard-bearer, Xóchitl Gálvez, called Sheinbaum’s threat to enact counter-tariffs “ill-advised.” The phenomenon of a broad “common front” behind the president being pitted against a hardened right opposition is just one more indication of how polarized politics has become throughout the region.

Sheinbaum’s decisiveness resonated in Mexico, with her approval rating climbing to 85 percent. Her reaction to Trump stood in sharp contrast with the submissiveness of Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, who immediately headed to Mar-a-Lago after Washington first announced the tariff hikes. Panamanian President Mulino also buckled under.

Sheinbaum’s display of civility in the language she used set the tone for other progressive presidents in the region. She referred to her strategy by saying “it’s always important to keep a cool head” when dealing with Trump. Her approach of pragmatism and flexibility but with dignity differed from the reaction of Colombian president Gustavo Petro who blasted Trump for his deportation policy, but then backtracked

Immediately following Trump’s initial tariff announcement, Lula and Sheinbaum spoke by phone on the need to strengthen CELAC to serve as an alternative to US commercial ties. Lula, like Sheinbaum, combined caution with firmness (at one point he called Trump a “bully”). Lula’s action on the international front is designed to promote a multilateral response to Trump’s tariff surge. In late March, he traveled to Japan to gain support for a customs agreement between that nation and MERCOSUR, which takes in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.

The collective approach to tariffs that the progressive Latin American governments are now proposing, with Lula at the helm, is diametrically opposed to the bilateral agreements that the United States has pushed in the region since 2005. That year, Latin American progressive presidents led by Hugo Chávez delivered US-style multilateralism in the form of the Free Trade Area of the Americas proposal (FTAA) a fatal blow, much to the chagrin of then president George W. Bush.

The polarization that pits progressive governments, which favor Latin American unity, against those on the right, which sign bilateral trade agreements with Washington, was on full display at CELAC’s ninth summit held in Honduras in April. The rightist presidents of Argentina, Paraguay, Peru, and Ecuador were conspicuously absent, while those on the left side of the spectrum, representing Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay, Honduras, and Venezuela participated.

Especially significant was Lula’s insistence that countries in the region move away from the dollar by trading in local currencies. In an obvious reference to Trump, Lula said, “The more united our economies are, the more protected we are from unilateral actions.” And the summit’s host, Honduran president Xiomara Castro de Zavala, remarked, “We cannot leave this historic assembly . . . without debating the new economic order that the United States is imposing on us with tariffs and immigration policies.”

The right-wing presidents of Argentina and Paraguay, Javier Milei and Santiago Peña, met separately in Asunción to reject CELAC’s united position on tariffs. Their representatives at CELAC refused to sign the final document called the “Declaration of Tegucigalpa,” which opposed unilateral international sanctions and Trump’s tariffs.

Both nations objected to Xiomara Castro’s use of the term “sufficient consensus” to refer to support for the declaration at the summit. Arguing that the term does not exist in international law, Paraguay questioned whether the final document could be issued in the name of the organization and unsuccessfully insisted that the dissenting position of both countries be officially recognized.

The question of the appropriateness of the phrase “sufficient consensus” was taken up by the Right throughout the region. But the issue went beyond semantics. The intention was clearly to discredit, if not sabotage, steps taken to achieve Latin American unity.



Polarization hurts the right
Trump’s policies have intensified the extreme polarization in which the far right has replaced the center right at the same time the left has gained influence. A case in point is Venezuela. The deportation of 238 Venezuelans from the United States to an overcrowded for-profit prison in El Salvador, and others to Guantanamo, has horrified Venezuelans.

Some have taken to the street to protest, including scores of family members holding photos of victims. One typical sign read “Jhon William Chacín Gómez — He’s Innocent.” Chacín’s wife and sister told reporters that his only crime was his tattoos. In a show of pro-Venezuelan solidarity and in defiance of the repressive atmosphere that exists in the nation, protesters in El Salvador also hold signs with photos of individual Venezuelan prisoners.

The issue has put the Venezuelan right led by María Corina Machado in a bind. Machado knows that even the slightest criticism of Trump’s deportation policy will lose her the support of the president. For that reason, she has firmly backed Trump on the issue. She has said, “We respect the measures taken in the framework of the law by democratic governments like the United States . . . to identify, detain and penalize the Tren de Aragua and we trust in the rule of law that exists in those democratic nations.” Machado calls the Tren de Aragua gang “the executing arm of the Maduro regime,” thus feeding into Trump’s narrative that demonizes Venezuelan immigrants.

The issue of deportations has divided the Venezuelan opposition, more than it already is. The hard-line opposition that supported the candidacy of Machado and then her surrogate Edmundo González is now split. In April, the two-time presidential candidate Henrique Capriles was expelled from one of the nation’s major parties Primero Justicia due to his differences with Machado, one of them being on the issue of the deportations. Capriles asked with regard to Venezuelan deportees, “What is their crime? What is the criteria for proving it?” He went on to demand “respect for human rights,” adding “it is unacceptable to characterize all [Venezuelan] migrants as delinquents.” José Guerra, a leading member of the Venezuelan opposition, told me “there’s no doubt that the issue of the deportations is playing a fundamental role in splitting the opposition into two blocs.”

The issue of Venezuelan deportations is one more example of how Trump’s policies inadvertently weaken the Latin American right and ipso facto benefit the left.

The Irony of Trump’s Monroe Doctrine
It’s ironic that the twenty-first-century president who proclaims the Monroe Doctrine as the cornerstone of US policy south of the border is distancing Latin America so much from Washington. Events since Trump took office that portend a worsening of relations between the two include the election of an OAS secretary general who doesn’t share Trump’s objectives and may result in Washington’s defunding of the organization or its complete withdrawal; Trump’s remarks that display complete insensitivity to nationalist sentiment in the region; his weaponization of tariffs that single out Venezuela and Nicaragua for special treatment and serves as a warning for governments such as Brazil, Colombia, and Uruguay; the gutting of foreign aid programs; and mass deportations. In addition, the fervent anti-China campaign that invokes the Monroe Doctrine will clash with the reality of Chinese economic expansion in the continent.

If Latin America does move away from the US camp, the blame can’t be placed entirely on Trump. His bullying is just a more extreme version of the imperialism that has always characterized US actions south of the border. Progressive governments in the region now seem more determined than ever to put a check on it.

https://orinocotribune.com/with-trump-i ... n-decline/.

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Yes, Of Course.

All documentaries such as Saving Private Ryan, Patton or A Bridge Too Far, among many other courses DJT took on strategy and military history, confirm this.

On May 1, US President Donald Trump said that the United States allegedly made the greatest contribution to victory in World War II. "Many of our allies celebrate May 8 as Victory Day, but we have done more to win than any other country," he wrote on his Truth Social network. In connection with this statement, Trump declared May 8 Victory Day, and November 11 Victory Day in the First World War. According to the head of state, it was the United States that won both wars. And the fact that "her victories" are not celebrated in the country, Trump explained the lack of leaders who know how to do this.

Of course, who can forget the Siege of Chicago and General Patton's brilliant victory over Manstein and Model at the gates of Boston. In the end, it was this thing--here is a historical photo.

Image

This is exactly how it happened.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/05 ... ourse.html
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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Sat May 03, 2025 3:39 pm

Core Trump
May 2, 2025

“For the U.S. president, the truth has no claim” — Michael Brenner scrutinizes the effects of Trump’s behavior on foreign policy over the past 100-plus days.

Image
President Donald Trump during his commencement address an the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa on May 1. (White House / Daniel Torok)

By Michael Brenner

So, President Donald Trump’s heralded intervention to bring resolution to the Ukraine conflict has fallen flat. Rejected by Russia, by the EU states, by Kiev. An unprecedented trifecta of failed foreign policy.

His contrived scheme designed to skirt the core issues and interests at stake was a non-starter from Day One. That should have been obvious. There was no serious thinking in the White House that might produce a coherent diplomatic strategy.

There manifestly was no understanding of Moscow’s position rooted in post-Cold history and events since the U.S.-sponsored Maidan coup in 2014 — nor of the intransigence among the ultra-nationalists who pull Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s strings.

Instead, what we got was vintage Trump. An impulsive reaching for a quick triumph to punctuate his brilliance as a statesman. The fixing of an objective without a thought-out plan how to achieve it.

A reliance on bullying, intimidation and underhanded dealing — the hallmark of his entire career; its apparent successes rooted in corruption, cronyism, and criminality — facilitated by the deference of other parties who lacked his ruthless cold-bloodedness. In his record of failures, as testified by six bankruptcies, he contrived to stiff his partners and creditors in each instance.

Against this background, his ability to cast himself as a winner owes more to the perversity of contemporary American society that invites chicanery than to any genius on his part.

On Ukraine/Russia Trump was grandstanding. There is an element of self-promotion in everything that he does publicly. The idea of being celebrated as a great peacemaker captured his imagination — not because he had any concern about the destruction and human cost or Europe’s long-term stability.

Admittedly, he also seemed to have been sold on the fashionable notion that the U.S. should mute its confrontation with Russia so as to be in a position to concentrate all our resources for the titanic struggle with China. The role of warrior-in-chief potentially could be just as appealing as that of peacemaker.

“His ability to cast himself as a winner owes more to the chicanery of contemporary American society than to any genius on his part.”

In fact, he had it both ways for a while: a Nobel Prize candidate for mediating in Ukraine; laurels from Israel’s American legions for reinforcing Washington’s complicity in the Palestinian genocide. What counts for Trump is the limelight and the exaltation.

So, he fixates on the one step that could stop the Ukraine fighting quickly — a ceasefire. None of the necessary and suitable preconditions exist; it amounts to calling a timeout of indeterminate length in a war that the other side is winning.

Yet, for three months that is the centerpiece around which everything pivots — futile proposals hatched by Trump’s virally anti-Russian advisers that only a fantasist images could lead to a settlement of the conflict.

The package presented to the Kremlin on a take-it-or-leave-it basis included such zany ideas as the U.S. taking over the critical Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station now under Russian control. This from a government that relentlessly for the past decade has pulled out all stops in its campaign to isolate and undermine the Russian state.

Tariffs & the Magical Circle

Image
Trump being interviewed by Terry Moran from ABC News in the Oval Office on April 29. (White House / Joyce N. Boghosian)

So, the great tariff offensive is mired in its contradictions. Donald Trump’s hare-brained scheme to make the American economy great again is to force everybody else to pay extravagantly for the privilege of sending trillions in goods to the United States in return for nothing more than electronic banknotes printed by the Federal Reserve in the form of debt securities — securities they found it expedient to place in American financial institutions.

A magical circle has allowed Washington to run huge budget deficits and balance-of-trade deficits for decades without fear of a monetary comeuppance. It was the dollar’s supremacy in the global economy, American control of multilateral institutions like the IMF, and its leveraging of security protections that made this convenient arrangement possible.

However, that world no longer exists — a cardinal fact of contemporary international life beyond the comprehension of the hucksters who convinced Trump that this snake oil was the elixir that could cure the national economy of all that ails it — arresting the fading of American economic dominance and, indeed, ensuring its providential hegemony forever and anon.

An essential truth that we have been willfully overlooking is that Trump is an ignoramus — literally. His pool of knowledge about issues, places or persons is so shallow that you couldn’t drown a gnat in it. He doesn’t read. He thinks in slogans, as well as speaks in slogans.

The wide gaps between his declarations and the truth are at once the result of mental laxness and a characteristic of a clinical narcissist whose exalted sense of self can only survive by erasing the line between actuality and what he finds is comfortable and self-serving. Thus, for Trump the truth has no claim.

“His pool of knowledge about issues, places or persons is so shallow that you couldn’t drown a gnat in it.”

We have had nine years of the Trump phenomenon to observe how that approach to the world expresses itself. If further evidence were needed, scrutinize his behavior of the past 100+ days.

His understanding of the Russian leadership’s state of mind (and that of an overwhelming majority of citizens) is close to zero — despite repeated, candid statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, explaining with exceptional clarity what their views are.

The only notions Trump held were simplistic and mistaken: Putin is a strong leader and a hard-nosed wheeler-dealer of the type I’ve known all my life, someone with whom I can strike a deal; Russia is struggling to keep up the war effort; a few territorial concessions are all that is needed to resolve the dispute.

Similarly, his understanding of how the global economy works is equally impoverished. Macro-economics is not his thing; after all, he imagines that he became a (nominal) billionaire by being a master of micro finance. Does he even comprehend that supply chains are the connective issue of today’s international economy?

Safeguarding His Own Impulses

Image
Trump with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a Cabinet meeting on April 30. (White House / Molly Riley)

There is another feature of the malignant narcissist that is noteworthy: a powerful drive toward controlling what filters into his mind/feelings. Empathetic understanding of other parties, or detailed knowledge of complicated matters, is perceived as a potential threat to the uninhibited assertion of will. For it is constraining to recognize boundaries, the likely responses of interlocutors, second-order effects, or intricate intersections.

The imperative is to safeguard the privilege of saying or doing whatever that avaricious, demanding psyche may impulsively want to do at any given moment. Sudden reversals are the inevitable outcome.

One day we are told that the U.S. will abandon Ukraine to its fate unless it obeys Washington; next come an announcement with great fanfare of an historic joint-resource venture that will entail a massive American presence and stake in Ukraine’s future — such as it might be, an incidental oversight by Trumpian strategists.

“The imperative is to safeguard the privilege of saying or doing whatever that avaricious, demanding psyche may impulsively want to do at any given moment.”

For the same reason, the formal obligation to observe institutional rules (e.g. NATO, IMF), treaty stipulations, or alliance commitments is anathema.

Is this an overstatement of Trump’s ignorance? Let us recall that this is the president who advised Americans that they may protect themselves against the Covid-19 virus by injecting themselves with bleach. He’s also a president who appoints as secretary of health and human services a whacko who seems skeptical of the germ-theory of medicine.

So, Donald Trump is repositioning his foreign-policy people. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz is exiled to the United Nations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio becomes interim national security adviser – warming the seat until Steven Witkoff has completed his failed special-envoy missions in Moscow and the Middle East and available to take over.

In a normal government, led by a normal person, such a move so early in an administration would be seen as having considerable practical significance. It might reflect the outcome of a dispute fueled by serious policy differences. It might impend important changes in the structure and process of decision-making. Neither is likely in this instance.

There is no organized process for setting foreign-policy objectives, for choosing among strategies, for formulating the appropriate diplomacy. Structured, orderly deliberation is absent and alien. Decisions are made by Trump on an ad hoc basis. He listens at random to advice from the principal officeholders, from his White House entourage, from golf pals, from FOX TV personalities. From whomever.

The appointment of the hapless numbskull Pete Hegseth to head the Pentagon happened because Trump relished the crude inanities that he uttered at FOX. (During Trump’s first term, he habitually chatted late in the night with Sean Hannity about what the latter had broadcast in that evening’s segment).

Whatever impresses him he adopts — even if the ideas are contradictory or ephemeral. Hence, the changeability of what he tweets or says from day-to-day — re. Zelensky, Putin, Ukraine in or out of NATO, grabbing Greenland/Panama/Canada, trade negotiations with China versus new sanctions, negotiations with Iran vs Trump fatwa forbidding anyone in the world from buying its oil. All of this is transparent and repetitious. Yet, elided by the media and most commentators.

Frankly, there is a case to be made that the psychology of Trump’s unhinged behavior is less of an analytical challenge than is the behavior of all those analysts who insist on normalizing it by ascribing to Trump’s words and actions design and coherent strategy that simply do not exist.

https://consortiumnews.com/2025/05/02/core-trump/

(There would be more but this machine is about to fly out the window.)
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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Mon May 05, 2025 2:20 pm

Why doesn’t the ‘Deal-Maker’ close the deal?
Alastair Crooke

May 5, 2025

This Trump transformation of America was intended to be rebuilt as America First.

The story, both on Ukraine and Iran, is that President Trump wants a ‘deal’ – and both deals are available – yet he seems nonetheless to have boxed himself in. Trump presents his Administration as being something rougher, meaner, and far less sentimental. It aspires to emerge, apparently, as also something more centralized, coercive, and radical.

In domestic policy, there may be some truth to this categorisation of the Trumpian ethos. In foreign policy, however, Trump tergiversates. The reason is not clear, but the fact of it clouds his prospects in the three areas vital to his ‘peace-maker’ aspiration – Ukraine, Iran and Gaza.

Whilst it is true that Trump’s true mandate derived from rampant economic and social discontent, rather than from his claims to be a peacemaker – yet the two key foreign policy ends remain important to maintaining momentum forward.

One possible answer is that in foreign negotiations, the President needs a grounded and experienced team to support him. And he does not have that.

In advance of sending his Envoy Witkoff to talk to President Putin, General Kellogg, it seems, presented Trump with a Versailles-type Armistice proposal: A vision of Russia on the ropes (i.e. the plan was cast in terms more appropriate to Russian capitulation). Kellogg’s proposal implied also that Trump would be doing Putin a ‘big favour’ – by condescending to offer him a ladder down which to climb from his perch up the Ukraine ‘tree’. And this was exactly the line Trump took in January:

Having stated that Russia had lost one million men (in the war), Trump then went on to say that “Putin is destroying Russia by not making a deal”. He further claimed that Russia’s economy was in ‘ruins’, and most notably, said that he would consider sanctioning or tariffing Russia. In a subsequent Truth Social post, he wrote, “I’m going to do Russia – whose Economy is failing – and President Putin, a very big FAVOR”.

The President – duly briefed by his team – may have imagined that he would offer Putin a unilateral ceasefire and, hey presto, would have a quick deal to his credit.

All the premises on which the Kellogg plan was based (Russia’s vulnerability to sanctions, huge losses of men, and a stalemated war) were false. Did no one on Trump’s team then do any due diligence on the Kellogg strategy? It seems (lazily) to have taken the Korean war as its template, without due consideration of whether it be appropriate, or not.

In the Korean instance, the ceasefire along a Conflict Line preceded political considerations, which came only later. And which remain ongoing – and unresolved – until today.

By launching premature demands for an immediate ceasefire during talks with Russian officials in Riyadh, Trump invited rejection. Firstly, because the Trump Team had no concrete plan for how to implement a ceasefire, simply presuming rather that all such details could be settled post-hoc. In short, it was presented to Trump as a ‘quick win’.

Only it wasn’t.

The outcome was fore-ordained – the ceasefire was declined. It should not have been allowed to happen, given competent staff work. Had none of Trump’s team been listening since 14 June of last year when Putin very clearly outlined MFA the Russian position on a ceasefire? And which has been repeated regularly ever since. Apparently not.

Yet even so, when Trump’s Envoy, Witkoff, returned from a long meeting with President Putin to report on the latter’s personal, detailed explanation of why a political framework must precede any ceasefire (unlike Korea), Witkoff’s account reportedly was met with the flat retort that ‘the Ukrainians would never agree’ from General Kellogg.

End of discussion, apparently. No decision taken.

Several more flights to Moscow have not altered the basic situation. Moscow awaits evidence that Trump is able to consolidate his position and can take charge of the situation. But until then, Moscow stands ready to facilitate a ‘rapprochement of positionality’ – but will not approve a unilateral ceasefire. (And nor will Zelensky).

The puzzle here is why Trump doesn’t cut off U.S. weapons and intelligence flows to Kiev, and tell the Europeans to butt out of Trump’s way? Does Kiev have some form of veto power? Does Team Trump not understand that the Europeans simply hope to disrupt Trump’s aim to normalise relations with Russia? They must do.

It seems that the “debate” (if you can call it that) in the Trump Team largely excluded real life factors. It took place at some high normative level, where certain facts and truths are simply assumed.

Maybe the Sunk Costs phenomenon weighed heavily – the longer you continue with a course of action (no matter how stupid), the less willing you are to change it. Changing it would be interpreted as acknowledging error – and acknowledging error is the first stage to losing power.

And there is a parallel with the talks with Iran.

Trump has a vision for a negotiated settlement with Iran that would achieve his objective of ‘no Iranian nuclear weapon’ – though the aim itself, is something of a tautology given that the U.S. intelligence community already has determined that Iran has NO nuclear weapon.

How do you stop something that is not occurring? Well, ‘intent’ is an enormously difficult concept to ring-fence. So, the Team heads back to basics: to the original Rand Organisation’s firm doctrine that there exists no qualitative difference between peaceful and weapon-linked enrichment of uranium. So, no enrichment should be permitted.

Only Iran does have enrichment – thanks to the Obama concession as part of the JCPOA, which allowed it, subject to limitations.

Many ideas are floating around about how to square this circle – of Iran’s refusal to relinquish enrichment versus Trump’s ‘no capacity’ to weaponise dictum. None of the ideas is new: Importing into Iran enriched feedstock; exporting Iran’s highly enriched uranium to Russia (something already done as part of the JCPOA), and having Russia build Iran’s nuclear energy capacity to power its industry. The problem is that Russia is already doing that too. It has one plant already up, and another in construction.

Israel naturally has its own proposals too: Root out all Iranian enrichment infrastructure and missile delivery capacity.

Only Iran will never agree to this.

So, the choice is either a jacked-up inspection and technical surveillance system in a JCPOA-like accord (which will not make either Israel or the pro-Israel Institutional leadership happy). Or military action.

Which takes us back to the Trump Team and the internecine divisions within the Pentagon.

Pete Hegseth sent the following message to Iran, posted on his social media account:

“We see your LETHAL support to The Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing. You know very well what the U.S. Military is capable of – and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing”.

Plainly, Hegseth is frustrated. As Larry Johnson has noted:

“The Trump team has been labouring under [another] false assumption that the Biden folks did not make a serious effort to destroy the Houthis’ arsenal of missiles and drones. The Trumpers believed that they could bomb the Houthis into submission. Instead, the U.S. is demonstrating to all countries in the region the limits of its naval and air power … Despite more than 600 bombing sorties, the Houthis continue to launch missiles and drones at U.S. ships in the Red Sea and targets inside Israel”.

So, Team Trump has waded firstly into one conflict (Yemen), and secondly, into a complex negotiation with Iran, again seemingly without doing its homework on Yemen. Is this down to group think again:

“In a situation of uncertainty like the present, solidarity comes to be seen as an end in itself, and nobody wants to be accused of ‘weakening the West’ or ‘strengthening Iran’. If you have to be wrong, best be wrong in the company of as many others as possible”.

Will Israel let this pass? It is beavering away with General Kurilla (the U.S. General in command at CENTCOM) in the bunker under the Israeli Defence Department – preparing plans for a joint attack on Iran. Israel appears very keen on his work.

Yet, the fundamental impediment to achieving an accord with Iran is more crucial – in that, as presently construed, the U.S. approach to the negotiations breaks all the rules about how to initiate a weapons-limitation treaty.

On the one hand, there is Israel with a triad of nuclear weapons systems and delivery capacities: from submarines, aircraft and by missile. Israel has also threatened the use of nuclear weapons – recently in Gaza and earlier during the first Iraq war, in response to Saddam Hussein’s Scud missile capacity.

The missing principle here is any modicum of reciprocity. Iran is said to threaten Israel – and Israel regularly threatens Iran. And Israel, of course, wants Iran neutered and disarmed and insists itself be untouched (no NPT, no IAEA inspections, no acknowledgment).

The arms-limitation treaties initiated by JF Kennedy with Khruschev derived from the successful reciprocal negotiation by which the U.S. withdrew its missiles from Turkey before Russia removed its own missiles from Cuba.

It must be clear to Trump and Witkoff that such a lopsided proposal as theirs for Iran bears no relation to geo-political realities – and is therefore likely to fail (sooner or later). Team Trump thus, is cornering itself into military action against Iran – which they will then own.

Trump does not want that; Iran does not want that. So, has this been adequately thought through? Has the Yemen experience been taken fully into account? Has the Trump Team mooted some off-ramp?

One creative way out of the dilemma – and which might restore at least some semblance to a classical arms limitation treaty exercise – would be for Trump to air the notion that now is time for Israel to enter the NPT and to have its weapons inspected by the IAEA.

Will Trump do that? No.

It then becomes obvious why.

This Trump transformation of America was intended to be rebuilt as America First.

It's always good to learn a new word...regardless of how obscure.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... lose-deal/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Mon May 05, 2025 2:21 pm

Why doesn’t the ‘Deal-Maker’ close the deal?
Alastair Crooke

May 5, 2025

This Trump transformation of America was intended to be rebuilt as America First.

The story, both on Ukraine and Iran, is that President Trump wants a ‘deal’ – and both deals are available – yet he seems nonetheless to have boxed himself in. Trump presents his Administration as being something rougher, meaner, and far less sentimental. It aspires to emerge, apparently, as also something more centralized, coercive, and radical.

In domestic policy, there may be some truth to this categorisation of the Trumpian ethos. In foreign policy, however, Trump tergiversates. The reason is not clear, but the fact of it clouds his prospects in the three areas vital to his ‘peace-maker’ aspiration – Ukraine, Iran and Gaza.

Whilst it is true that Trump’s true mandate derived from rampant economic and social discontent, rather than from his claims to be a peacemaker – yet the two key foreign policy ends remain important to maintaining momentum forward.

One possible answer is that in foreign negotiations, the President needs a grounded and experienced team to support him. And he does not have that.

In advance of sending his Envoy Witkoff to talk to President Putin, General Kellogg, it seems, presented Trump with a Versailles-type Armistice proposal: A vision of Russia on the ropes (i.e. the plan was cast in terms more appropriate to Russian capitulation). Kellogg’s proposal implied also that Trump would be doing Putin a ‘big favour’ – by condescending to offer him a ladder down which to climb from his perch up the Ukraine ‘tree’. And this was exactly the line Trump took in January:

Having stated that Russia had lost one million men (in the war), Trump then went on to say that “Putin is destroying Russia by not making a deal”. He further claimed that Russia’s economy was in ‘ruins’, and most notably, said that he would consider sanctioning or tariffing Russia. In a subsequent Truth Social post, he wrote, “I’m going to do Russia – whose Economy is failing – and President Putin, a very big FAVOR”.

The President – duly briefed by his team – may have imagined that he would offer Putin a unilateral ceasefire and, hey presto, would have a quick deal to his credit.

All the premises on which the Kellogg plan was based (Russia’s vulnerability to sanctions, huge losses of men, and a stalemated war) were false. Did no one on Trump’s team then do any due diligence on the Kellogg strategy? It seems (lazily) to have taken the Korean war as its template, without due consideration of whether it be appropriate, or not.

In the Korean instance, the ceasefire along a Conflict Line preceded political considerations, which came only later. And which remain ongoing – and unresolved – until today.

By launching premature demands for an immediate ceasefire during talks with Russian officials in Riyadh, Trump invited rejection. Firstly, because the Trump Team had no concrete plan for how to implement a ceasefire, simply presuming rather that all such details could be settled post-hoc. In short, it was presented to Trump as a ‘quick win’.

Only it wasn’t.

The outcome was fore-ordained – the ceasefire was declined. It should not have been allowed to happen, given competent staff work. Had none of Trump’s team been listening since 14 June of last year when Putin very clearly outlined MFA the Russian position on a ceasefire? And which has been repeated regularly ever since. Apparently not.

Yet even so, when Trump’s Envoy, Witkoff, returned from a long meeting with President Putin to report on the latter’s personal, detailed explanation of why a political framework must precede any ceasefire (unlike Korea), Witkoff’s account reportedly was met with the flat retort that ‘the Ukrainians would never agree’ from General Kellogg.

End of discussion, apparently. No decision taken.

Several more flights to Moscow have not altered the basic situation. Moscow awaits evidence that Trump is able to consolidate his position and can take charge of the situation. But until then, Moscow stands ready to facilitate a ‘rapprochement of positionality’ – but will not approve a unilateral ceasefire. (And nor will Zelensky).

The puzzle here is why Trump doesn’t cut off U.S. weapons and intelligence flows to Kiev, and tell the Europeans to butt out of Trump’s way? Does Kiev have some form of veto power? Does Team Trump not understand that the Europeans simply hope to disrupt Trump’s aim to normalise relations with Russia? They must do.

It seems that the “debate” (if you can call it that) in the Trump Team largely excluded real life factors. It took place at some high normative level, where certain facts and truths are simply assumed.

Maybe the Sunk Costs phenomenon weighed heavily – the longer you continue with a course of action (no matter how stupid), the less willing you are to change it. Changing it would be interpreted as acknowledging error – and acknowledging error is the first stage to losing power.

And there is a parallel with the talks with Iran.

Trump has a vision for a negotiated settlement with Iran that would achieve his objective of ‘no Iranian nuclear weapon’ – though the aim itself, is something of a tautology given that the U.S. intelligence community already has determined that Iran has NO nuclear weapon.

How do you stop something that is not occurring? Well, ‘intent’ is an enormously difficult concept to ring-fence. So, the Team heads back to basics: to the original Rand Organisation’s firm doctrine that there exists no qualitative difference between peaceful and weapon-linked enrichment of uranium. So, no enrichment should be permitted.

Only Iran does have enrichment – thanks to the Obama concession as part of the JCPOA, which allowed it, subject to limitations.

Many ideas are floating around about how to square this circle – of Iran’s refusal to relinquish enrichment versus Trump’s ‘no capacity’ to weaponise dictum. None of the ideas is new: Importing into Iran enriched feedstock; exporting Iran’s highly enriched uranium to Russia (something already done as part of the JCPOA), and having Russia build Iran’s nuclear energy capacity to power its industry. The problem is that Russia is already doing that too. It has one plant already up, and another in construction.

Israel naturally has its own proposals too: Root out all Iranian enrichment infrastructure and missile delivery capacity.

Only Iran will never agree to this.

So, the choice is either a jacked-up inspection and technical surveillance system in a JCPOA-like accord (which will not make either Israel or the pro-Israel Institutional leadership happy). Or military action.

Which takes us back to the Trump Team and the internecine divisions within the Pentagon.

Pete Hegseth sent the following message to Iran, posted on his social media account:

“We see your LETHAL support to The Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing. You know very well what the U.S. Military is capable of – and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing”.

Plainly, Hegseth is frustrated. As Larry Johnson has noted:

“The Trump team has been labouring under [another] false assumption that the Biden folks did not make a serious effort to destroy the Houthis’ arsenal of missiles and drones. The Trumpers believed that they could bomb the Houthis into submission. Instead, the U.S. is demonstrating to all countries in the region the limits of its naval and air power … Despite more than 600 bombing sorties, the Houthis continue to launch missiles and drones at U.S. ships in the Red Sea and targets inside Israel”.

So, Team Trump has waded firstly into one conflict (Yemen), and secondly, into a complex negotiation with Iran, again seemingly without doing its homework on Yemen. Is this down to group think again:

“In a situation of uncertainty like the present, solidarity comes to be seen as an end in itself, and nobody wants to be accused of ‘weakening the West’ or ‘strengthening Iran’. If you have to be wrong, best be wrong in the company of as many others as possible”.

Will Israel let this pass? It is beavering away with General Kurilla (the U.S. General in command at CENTCOM) in the bunker under the Israeli Defence Department – preparing plans for a joint attack on Iran. Israel appears very keen on his work.

Yet, the fundamental impediment to achieving an accord with Iran is more crucial – in that, as presently construed, the U.S. approach to the negotiations breaks all the rules about how to initiate a weapons-limitation treaty.

On the one hand, there is Israel with a triad of nuclear weapons systems and delivery capacities: from submarines, aircraft and by missile. Israel has also threatened the use of nuclear weapons – recently in Gaza and earlier during the first Iraq war, in response to Saddam Hussein’s Scud missile capacity.

The missing principle here is any modicum of reciprocity. Iran is said to threaten Israel – and Israel regularly threatens Iran. And Israel, of course, wants Iran neutered and disarmed and insists itself be untouched (no NPT, no IAEA inspections, no acknowledgment).

The arms-limitation treaties initiated by JF Kennedy with Khruschev derived from the successful reciprocal negotiation by which the U.S. withdrew its missiles from Turkey before Russia removed its own missiles from Cuba.

It must be clear to Trump and Witkoff that such a lopsided proposal as theirs for Iran bears no relation to geo-political realities – and is therefore likely to fail (sooner or later). Team Trump thus, is cornering itself into military action against Iran – which they will then own.

Trump does not want that; Iran does not want that. So, has this been adequately thought through? Has the Yemen experience been taken fully into account? Has the Trump Team mooted some off-ramp?

One creative way out of the dilemma – and which might restore at least some semblance to a classical arms limitation treaty exercise – would be for Trump to air the notion that now is time for Israel to enter the NPT and to have its weapons inspected by the IAEA.

Will Trump do that? No.

It then becomes obvious why.

This Trump transformation of America was intended to be rebuilt as America First.

It's always good to learn a new word...regardless of how obscure.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... lose-deal/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Tue May 06, 2025 2:20 pm

Distributional and Macroeconomic Effects of Trump 2.0: The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer
Posted on May 6, 2025 by Yves Smith

Yves here. This post confirms what we said as soon as Trump launched DOGE and then his tariffs war: that the only way his policies made sense (given that they would weaken the US economy, social indicators like education levels, lifespans, huger and disease incidence) and harm our alliances is if the aim was to recreate a Russia-in-the-1990s level collapse so as to facilitate elite looting. Admittedly, the forecast below is not that dire (or comprehensive) but that is the trajectory of travel.

Consider these findings in combination with a Guardian story we feature in Links today: Maga’s era of ‘soft eugenics’: let the weak get sick, help the clever breed (hat tip Kevin W):

Enter Robert F Kennedy Jr, the US secretary of health, who regularly laments over the “back then” of his youth when he says that diabetes and autism was almost unheard of and obesity rates were far lower. (In his campaign videos he would often do this over vintage footage of white bodies splayed on a beach.) Kennedy champions living harmoniously with nature, free from the burdens of “poisonous” food additives, fertilizers, cooking oils and the most toxic chemistry of all: vaccines.

Kennedy’s myopic emphasis on personal responsibility as the main driver of health means he’s at best indifferent, and at worst welcoming, of the idea that those that don’t heed his counsel might die.

Yet health is never simple. By avoiding discussion of education, employment, social support networks, economic status and geographic location – the social determinants that public health experts agree influence health outcomes – Kennedy, in lockstep with top wellness influencers, is practicing soft eugenics…

At the heart of all these policies is soft eugenics thinking – the idea that if you take away life-saving healthcare and services from the vulnerable, then you can let nature take its course and only the strong will survive.

Kennedy’s “Maha” (“make America healthy again”) movement does not advocate for forced sterilizations or mass deaths. Their stance is more of a shrug and sigh than a battle cry. When Kennedy claims that autism is worse than Covid-19 because the latter only kills “old people” and “metabolically healthy” people don’t die from it, or when a Maha associate claims that measles is “an essential rite of passage, immunologically”, you’re hearing the language of soft eugenics. Don’t let vaccines protect everyone, instead let the infirm and weak be culled so that the strong will survive and perpetuate.

How can we get healthier without healthcare? Kennedy repeatedly puts the onus of disease on diet and lifestyle while minimizing the role of social services and doctors. He claimed that by removing chemicals from food, “our nation would get healthy immediately,” and floated the idea of using money spent on Ozempic to provide “a gym membership for every obese American.” In his mind, the unwell are the reason we’re in such dire shape–not the system that keeps the unwell from receiving access to healthy food and medical care.

These eugenicists ignore that even well after the 1890s that Trump idealizes, childhood deaths, even among the wealthy, were common. For instance, Churchill had two of his six children die.

By Simon Grothe, Ph.D. Student, University of Geneva, Switzerland, and Michalis Nikiforos, Associate Professor, Department of History, Economics and Society, University of Geneva, Switzerland, Research Scholar, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, New York. Originally published at the Institute for New Economic Thinking website

The past few weeks have been marked by Donald Trump’s announcements of higher tariffs on nearly all of the United States’ trading partners. These tariffs have been justified under an “America First” agenda, which aims at bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and—according to the populist wing of the Trump coalition—restoring the position of the American middle class.

The rollout of these tariffs has been, to say the least, erratic. Initially, there were increases on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada—some of which were later postponed. This was followed on April 2nd—referred to as “Liberation Day”—by a sweeping hike in tariffs on nearly every trading partner of the U.S., prompting retaliatory measures (e.g., by China and the European Union). The resulting meltdown in financial markets led to a new postponement of the increases for every country except China, for which the tariffs rose even further. In response, China expanded its tariffs on U.S. imports. As of the time of the writing of this piece, the last episode of this drama was the announcement that key electronic product imports from China, as well as cars and car parts, would be exempt from the increases.

An important question related to these developments is what their distributional consequences will be. Are the promises for a regeneration of the American middle class credible? One could argue, for example, that since the ownership of financial assets is very unequally distributed, the stock market crash of the last weeks is either irrelevant—as the stock market does not represent the real economy—or even beneficial from a distributional point of view because it disproportionately affects high income/high net worth individuals.

In this note, we explain that such an outcome is unlikely. If we examine the effects of the new tariffs within the context of the wider policies of the new administration, the most likely outcome is a recession and an exacerbation of inequalities, and a further degradation of the living standards of working and middle-class Americans.

The US Trade Deficit

According to the Trump administration, the primary reason for the tariff increases is the large trade deficit of the U.S. economy. The U.S. emerged from World War II with a trade surplus and an overall balanced current account. The trade deficit did not appear until the late 1970s and continued to grow until the 2007 financial crisis, a trend that was briefly interrupted in the late 1980s following the Plaza Accord. Over the past fifteen years, the trade deficit has not returned to its pre-2007 levels, largely due to the rise of shale gas extraction and a significant improvement in the trade balance of petroleum products. However, the trade balance for goods excluding petroleum products remains at the same level as it was in 2006.

This long-term increase in the trade deficit—spanning more than four decades—has largely been the result of a deliberate strategy by U.S. capital to outsource production. This was driven by a dual goal: to access cheaper labor abroad and to discipline labor at home. This strategy has played a central role in the widening of inequality in the U.S. during the same period.

The U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency has also contributed to the trade deficit. High global demand for dollar-denominated assets tends to strengthen the dollar’s exchange rate relative to other currencies. Additionally, U.S. policymakers have actively supported the dollar when it has been at risk of depreciating.

Neoclassical economists provided the intellectual justification for free trade and outsourcing production with models that emphasized their benefits. In these models, although it is recognized that removing trade barriers can have positive welfare effects on some economic actors and sectors and negative effects on some others, the net effect is positive. Thus, the “losers” can be compensated by the “winners,” who will be better off nonetheless.[1]

Neoclassical analysis suffers from two major shortcomings: it ignores the role of power, and it is largely static in nature, focusing on the allocation of resources while overlooking the dynamic and evolutionary aspects of capitalist economies. Because of these limitations, it failed to account for two crucial dimensions of the expanding trade deficit.

First, the benefits of free trade were very unequally distributed. The American consumer did benefit, but most of the benefits were concentrated at the top of the income distribution, as firms were able to increase their profits because of cheaper imports from abroad and disciplined labor at home. Meanwhile, the outsourcing of production severely harmed manufacturing workers, many of whom lost their jobs, and entire regions experienced deindustrialization and economic decline. The latter, the “losers,” were never compensated by the former, “the winners,” as the theory suggested. From this perspective, it is understandable that affected communities and manufacturing-sector unions have opposed free trade and supported tariffs.

Second, the process of a widening trade deficit involved a process of what Myrdal called “circular and cumulative causation” both in the U.S. and abroad. The increase in the trade surpluses of the U.S. trading partners in Asia and Northern Europe allowed them to upgrade their position in the global value chains and become much more competitive over this period. China stands as the prime example in this process. On the other hand, this process worked in the opposite way in the U.S. The hollowing out of the manufacturing sector and its production networks has made it increasingly difficult to reshore production. In other words, due to economies of scale and other dynamic factors, the decision to outsource production is not symmetrical to that of reshoring. Simply raising trade barriers will not automatically bring back the manufacturing jobs that were lost when those barriers were initially removed.

More generally, the fact that neoclassical economics is wrong when it suggests that the removal of trade barriers is always beneficial and leads to welfare improvements does not make the opposite true, namely, that raising trade barriers is always beneficial and leads to welfare improvements. Thus, the effect of tariffs depends on the structural characteristics of each economy as well as on other policies that accompany them. Depending on them, they can be beneficial or harmful—for the economy as a whole or for specific groups within the economy. In the case of the U.S. economy, the change in the structural characteristics of the manufacturing sector over the last decades makes it possible that those who lost from the push for laissez-faire will also lose from the increase in tariffs. We are coming to this below.

Short-Run Distributional Effects of Tariffs

We now turn to the distributional effects of tariffs. In the short run, the real impact of tariffs on net exports will be limited, as the potential to substitute imported goods with domestic alternatives is minimal. Whatever margin for substitution does exist—leading to a reduction in U.S. imports—will be offset by the counter-tariffs announced by U.S. trading partners, which will in turn reduce U.S. exports.

On the other hand, higher tariffs lead to increased costs for imported goods. The last time the U.S. economy faced a broad-based import price shock was in the aftermath of the pandemic. As we found in a recent paper—consistent with several other studies—American corporations were able to defend or even raise their markups in response to that shock, passing the cost increases onto domestic prices. The result was domestic inflation and pressure on the real incomes of the working and middle classes.

To the extent that this time around firms will also be able to defend their profit margins—it is not clear what has changed compared to three years ago—the immediate distributional results of the tariffs will be analogous: rising domestic prices and real income losses for the middle class.

As we have explained in another paper, the distributional effects in response to shocks in import prices can also have significant macroeconomic effects. Since the propensity to consume of the working and middle classes is very high, the real income losses due to price increases have a negative effect on consumption and aggregate demand (a point we will return to below).

The Budget

It is often said that a government’s true intentions are revealed by its budget. This is especially true in the case of the recent budget approved by Congress with the backing of the Trump administration. One cannot discuss the administration’s priorities without referring to it.

The budget bill includes trillions of dollars in tax and spending cuts. However, the tax cuts will primarily benefit high-income households and corporations, while the spending cuts will disproportionately affect low- and middle-income households. These include reductions to Medicaid, nutritional assistance programs, the layoff of hundreds of thousands of federal employees, and the dismantling of entire government agencies. Clearly, these policies will result in a significant redistribution of income from lower- to higher-income households.

According to recent estimates by the Yale Budget Lab, the average after-tax-and-transfer income of households in the bottom quintile and second-to-bottom quintile is expected to decrease by 5% and 1.4%, respectively. On the other hand, households in the fourth and top quintile will see their incomes increase by 1.4% and 2.5% respectively. These losses are on top of the estimated reduction in median household income by 2.8% due to tariffs. As noted by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the estimated losses of the bottom quintiles are likely conservative, as they do not account for cuts overseen by the House Education and Workforce Committee, which are expected to affect student loan repayment conditions.

The provisions of the budget bill are difficult to reconcile with the neo-populist narrative that the Trump administration seeks to defend the American working and middle class. Instead, the bill follows the precedent set by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which had regressive distributional effects, and will lead to a further increase in income inequality in the U.S.

Macroeconomic Effects

This brings us to the potential macroeconomic effects of the new administration’s trade and fiscal policies. As already noted, net exports are relatively inelastic in the short run, and whatever decrease in imports achieved through higher tariffs will likely be offset by a corresponding decrease in exports due to reciprocal tariffs imposed by U.S. trading partners.

In addition, the redistribution of income away from working- and middle-class households—resulting from both the new budget and the inflationary impact of tariffs—will negatively affect consumption, as low- and middle-income households have a much higher propensity to consume than those at the top of the income distribution. Furthermore, the recent drop in the stock market, along with continued volatility, may contribute to a negative wealth effect, further suppressing consumption.

Government spending growth is also set to slow down in line with the budget, removing another potential source of demand.

This leaves private investment as the only remaining component that could drive economic growth. But is it likely that investment will surge in response to the recently adopted tax cuts and offset the negative pressures on consumption and government expenditure? The answer appears to be no. The consensus regarding the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017—which was similarly justified on the grounds that lowering tax rates for wealthy households and corporations would boost investment—is that it had a small effect on output and investment. There is little reason to believe that tax cuts would be more effective this time.

Moreover, the highly uncertain economic and political environment is likely to dampen the “animal spirits” of entrepreneurs and weigh further on investment. As a result, not only is an investment boom unlikely, but investment will most likely slow down or even decline, placing even more downward pressure on aggregate demand.

Overall, this analysis suggests that it is unlikely that the U.S. economy will avoid a significant slowdown, while the probability of a recession is not negligible.

Two related points are worth noting. First, an economic slowdown will likely reduce the trade deficit—achieving the administration’s stated goal, but for the wrong reasons. Second, the slowdown (or even more, a potential recession) and the accompanying increase in the unemployment rate will have further distributional consequences against wages.

The Long Run

One might finally argue that all of this is a bitter pill the U.S. economy must swallow in order to revive its manufacturing sector. While it is beyond the scope of this note to offer predictions about the long-term structural transformation of the U.S. economy, we can make three key points.

First, it is unlikely that tariffs alone—especially when implemented in such an erratic and ad hoc manner—will be sufficient to achieve the desired structural transformation of the U.S. economy and its manufacturing base. Such a transformation would require a broader and more coherent strategy, which has yet to be proposed.

Second, some of the stated goals and likely consequences of the announced trade policies risk undermining the dollar’s role as the international reserve currency. Sharp declines in U.S. asset prices and a devaluation of the dollar are inconsistent with its continued status as the hegemonic global currency. It remains unclear how the Trump administration intends to reconcile these contradictions.

Finally, a resurgence in manufacturing does not automatically translate into improved conditions for the working and middle classes. The era between the Civil War and the early 20th century—an era President Trump often idealizes—was indeed marked by high tariffs aimed at protecting U.S. manufacturing. However, besides the fact that at that time the U.S. was essentially a developing economy catching up with the very advanced European economies, this is exactly the period referred to as the Gilded Age, which was marked by very high inequalities. The reduction in inequality and the rise in living standards for American workers and the middle class came later, as a result of organized labor struggles and the policies introduced during the New Deal and the postwar period. The current administration has proposed no comparable policies—in fact, as we have noted, the budget appears to move in precisely the opposite direction.

Conclusion

The U.S. economy has undergone dramatic changes over the past few decades. Average growth rates of real GDP and productivity have declined, while income and wealth inequality have increased, and significant portions of industrial production have been outsourced. These shifts have left workers in many sectors economically insecure. However, the current trade and fiscal policies of the Trump administration—along with the erratic manner in which they are announced—are unlikely to address these issues. On the contrary, their most probable outcome is a worsening of inequality and the onset of a recession, accompanied by rising prices.



Note

[1] The possibility that trade might lead to net welfare losses arises, as in many aspects of neoclassical theory, when various rigidities or market imperfections are introduced. However, these were generally treated as special cases that did not undermine the central message: trade liberalization is beneficial.

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Wed May 07, 2025 3:01 pm

Trump to rename Persian Gulf 'Arabian Gulf' during Saudi visit

Iran's foreign minister said the change, which goes against international consensus, indicates 'hostile intent toward Iran and its people'

News Desk

MAY 7, 2025

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(Photo credit: Evan Vucci / Associated Press)
US President Donald Trump plans to announce that the US will officially begin referring to the Persian Gulf as the “Arabian Gulf” or the “Gulf of Arabia” during his upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia, according to two US officials who spoke with AP.

The announcement, expected during a keynote speech in Riyadh next week, marks a break with long-standing international convention and is seen as part of Trump’s broader effort to strengthen ties with Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

These countries have long advocated for the geographic name change, while Iran, which shares the longest coastline along the body of water, sees the name “Persian Gulf” as a key aspect of its national identity.

“Politically motivated attempts to alter the historically established name of the Persian Gulf are indicative of hostile intent toward Iran and its people, and are firmly condemned,” Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X.

“Any short-sighted step in this connection will have no validity or legal or geographical effect, it will only bring the wrath of all Iranians from all walks of life and political persuasion in Iran, the US, and across the world,” he added.


A US official characterized the change as a “historic reorientation” of US terminology to better align with its regional alliances. Trump himself hinted at a major upcoming announcement earlier this week, calling it “one of the most important” of his presidency.

The name of the Gulf has been recognized internationally as the “Persian Gulf” since at least the 16th century. The UN and the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), responsible for standardizing sea names globally, continue to use this designation. While the US military has unilaterally used “Arabian Gulf” in internal communications for years, this would be the first time a formal White House policy adopts the alternative name.

In 2017, when Trump first used the term “Arabian Gulf,” then-Iranian president Hassan Rouhani urged Trump to “study geography.”

Under US law, Trump can direct executive agencies to adopt the new name, but permanent changes would require congressional approval and could be reversed by future administrations. Legal experts note the renaming has no bearing on international maps or global consensus.

Trump’s visit to the Gulf region, scheduled for May 13–16, also follows a controversial domestic attempt to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America,” which led to a legal battle with AP. A federal judge ruled that the administration could not penalize media outlets for refusing to adopt the new terminology, citing First Amendment protections.

https://thecradle.co/articles/trump-to- ... audi-visit

Just when you thought he couldn't be more ignorant, arrogant or stupid...

*****

Trade War Update: Make Americans Grow Angry
Karl Sanchez
May 06, 2025

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China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs again refutes Trump’s lies that China is negotiating—China is not:

In response to a question on how far China and the US are from formally initiating trade negotiations and whether China is willing to participate in negotiations only if the US lowers tariffs first, given that US President Donald Trump said in an interview with NBC that he will not drop tariffs to get China to negotiating table, Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on Tuesday that this tariff war was launched by the US. China's position is consistent and clear: We will fight, if fight we must. Our doors are open, if the US wants to talk.

The US side recently keeps saying that it wants to negotiate with China. There are no winners in tariff and trade wars, and if the US side really wants to solve the problem through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and pressuring, and engage in dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit, Lin noted.


As with Russia’s well stated position on negotiations, China's also being ignored while Trump conducts megaphone diplomacy trying to position the Outlaw US Empire as victim instead of aggression initiator as it was with Ukraine. The situation with shipping and retailer inventories within the Empire will soon become critical as Gene Seroka, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director informed Bloomberg in this 3.5-minute clip. Bloomberg’s reporters focused mostly on clothing while today’s Global Times focused on housing construction and related household items:
US homeowners bear brunt of tariffs: Chinese suppliers

On April 2, the day when the US administration announced its so-called "reciprocal tariffs" affecting more than 180 countries and regions around the world, a merchant surnamed Xiong from Hangzhou, East China's Zhejiang Province, felt perplexed.

"It is hard to tell how the tariffs will impact our business and like many others we have drawn up backup plans," said Xiong, general manager of a construction company which operates a customized summer house construction business.

However, while Xiong was worried about the potential impact of the tariffs on his business, he got an invitation. "On this very day, we actually received an invitation from a client based in Boston to conduct an on-site survey at the latter's ski resort, and if this deal is finalized, it will generate $2 million in revenue for us," Xiong said.

As Xiong flew to meet his client, whose company had booked his flight, he asked, "are you not concerned about the tariffs?"

Passing on costs

Xiong said his client told him that "life has to continue even with the tariff, and having no revenue at the ski resort is unacceptable... the only way is to swallow the tariff first and then eventually pass on the increased costs to visitors to the resort, through ways such as higher administration fees."

Xiong's experience on what US officials call "Liberation Day" is just one example illustrating the resilience of mutually beneficial trade flow and business ties between American and Chinese companies in the area of residential and commercial building and maintenance.

Several Chinese suppliers have also seen the negative impact of the hefty tariffs imposed by the US on the sector; however, the impact will mostly be felt by US consumers, as the tariffs will add up the building cost for American homes and lower Americans' living standards.

Although large portion of US home building materials come from Canada and Mexico, industry players pointed out that tariffs on a wide variety of goods from China will also inevitably increase costs in the US home building and construction sector.

The US administration has imposed 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods and 10 percent tariffs on imports from most other countries. The tariffs will affect Chinese products essential to the US home building and construction sector. From lawn mowers to DIY toolboxes, US homeowners will face higher prices due to the tariffs, several representatives from Chinese suppliers said.

China is a major supplier of many key materials for the US construction industry, Ye Wen, owner of a home building materials company based in South China's Guangdong Province, told the Global Times.

"From my observation and information gathered from expo clients, 'Made in China' fasteners (nails and screws), LED lighting, and decorative building materials accounted for nearly half the US market share," Ye said.

Despite additional costs resulting from the tariffs, Chinese products remain the top choice for the US purchasing managers due to their stable quality, comprehensive supply chain advantages, and responsiveness, Ye said.

Zhong Shangtian, another owner of a home construction company based in Guangdong, told the Global Times that in addition to bolts and nuts, and hardware accessories, the US is heavily reliant on Chinese-made drywall, timber and wood products such as plywood and magnesium oxide wallboard, a newer type of home building material, for which the US heavily relies on Chinese producers.

It is true that many of these products can be and are produced in the US, or Canada, but low-cost offerings from China remain something that US builders rely on... "just imagine the cost benefits if we are talking about large residential district or commercial projects," Zhong said. "To block Chinese-made goods is to rob this cost-effective option from homebuyers."

Meanwhile, Chinese companies have been actively coping with the US tariffs. Chinese suppliers interviewed by the Global Times said that they have worked on ways to diversify their markets, such as making new entries into the ASEAN and European markets, as the US tariffs eroded some of the market demand. None of them is willing to eat the tariffs as it is far beyond their margin and their products can find a buyer in other markets.

Diminished outlook

These warnings coincided with an estimate from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), a US industry association, which pegged the typical cost impact of recent tariffs at $10,900 per home, despite ongoing fluctuations in the US tariff policy since early April.

The duties in place on imported steel, aluminum, and other metals have already driven up prices, including for essential supplies like nails, screws, bolts, and fasteners that builders use by the millions, according to New York-based US business media outlet Inc.com.

"There is virtually no short-term replacement of 'Made in China' goods, due to Chinese manufacturers' production capacity, technological sophistication, and supply chain stability that guarantee project progress," Ye said.

"Looking down the pipeline, I think housing accessibility in the US will be compromised because of the sweeping tariffs, new home prices will rise in particular, some developers will choose to delay the projects, and middle- and low-income American households and first-time homebuyers will bear the brunt of it," Ye said.

The NAHB estimates that $204 billion worth of goods were used in the construction of both new multifamily and single-family housing in 2024 and approximately 7 percent of all goods used in new residential construction are sourced from foreign countries.

Overall, builders estimate that recent tariffs have added an average of $10,900 to the cost of each new home, according to the NAHB, citing data from an April survey conducted with the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. This came on top of a 34 percent rise in the cost of building materials since December 2020, which is far higher than the rate of inflation, the NAHB said.

Anirban Basu, chief economist at US industry body Associated Builders and Contractors, told Inc.com that "these tariffs have already materially diminished the outlook for construction activity in 2025." [My Emphasis]
Housing construction was one of the few bright spots within the Outlaw US Empire’s economy, although the continued reliance of the suburban settlement construction pattern greatly impacts energy and other infrastructure efficiency negatively. And the cost of cookie-cutter tilt-ups in suburban tracts averages $210,000 in the lower housing cost states (when I looked at such housing in Colorado during 1990 the cost for a modest house was $90,000); unfortunately, many such tracts include McMansions that skew the average. As Hudson and articles about housing note, most homeowners spend 40% of their income on their home. While most current homeowners will handle house-related tariff inflation, new homeowners needing to furnish their homes and purchase tools to manage their landscape will be hit hard. But price hikes are only one factor of concern as the Port Director said; what’s critical is inventories and looming shortages beginning as soon as mid-June for all products.

And contrary to many expectations is the fact that all sectors of US exports are also being affected by the Trade War as this Guancha news item reported today:
US press: The impact of Trump's tariffs has worsened, and almost all US exports have been hit

According to a report by the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) on May 6, due to U.S. President Trump's insistence on provoking a "tariff war", many companies canceled manufacturing orders, and U.S. imports plummeted, and now it has further evolved into a nationwide decline in U.S. exports. Almost all U.S. exports have been hit, with agricultural products being hit particularly hard.

According to the report, Vizion, a trade tracking agency, analyzed container booking data before and after Trump's tariffs went into effect, and they found that exports at most ports across the United States have seen a significant decline.

The Port of Portland, for example, saw its largest decline in exports by 51 percent. Exports from the Port of Tacoma, a large agricultural export port with corn and soybeans, were also down 28 percent, with agricultural products shipped mainly to China, Japan and South Korea. Exports at the Port of Los Angeles fell 17 percent, Savannah Ports, which have the largest container exports of agricultural products this year, fell 13 percent and Norfolk lost 12 percent.

Other ports saw smaller declines, such as the Port of Houston and Seattle, where exports fell by 3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. But Ben Tracy, Vizion's vice president of strategic business development, noted: "It's clear that almost all U.S. exports have taken a hit. ”

This confirms what the U.S. agriculture industry has been warning about its lack of ability to sell its produce to global markets.

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CNBC noted that the decline in exports was related to a decrease in container ships destined for the United States, as some companies were forced to cancel manufacturing orders, causing some Chinese factories and cargo ships to stop entering the United States. Tariffs have led to a rapid decline in U.S. imports, with port data tracked by Vizion showing a 43% week-on-week decline in container volumes at U.S. ports from April 21 to April 28.

Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion, said: "We haven't seen anything like this since the pandemic interrupted in 2020. This means that shipments that were scheduled to arrive in the next six to eight weeks will not be delivered at all. As tariffs push up costs, small businesses are suspending orders, and goods that once had reliable shipping channels are now doubling in price, forcing importers to make difficult choices.”

Retailers have been urging U.S. consumers to buy goods as soon as possible, and data from Bank of America's global research unit suggests that warning may be correct. The agency's latest forecast data shows that the number of container ships entering the U.S. port of Los Angeles will fall further in May, and the trade dispute will lead to a 15 to 20 percent reduction in the number of U.S. containers imported from Asia in the coming weeks.

The Bank of America report pointed out that despite the early "stockpiling" of goods by U.S. businesses at the beginning of the year, there has been no significant increase in commodity inventories, many retailers may only have one to two months of inventory, and any unforeseen demand or supply disruption could affect retailers' supply of goods and commodity prices in the United States.

CNBC said that in the second half of this year, the United States will usher in the peak shopping season such as National Day on July 4, "Black Friday" in November and "Cyber Monday" in December, and retailers now need to source goods and prepare for the holidays, so this June could be a "turning point" for the US supply chain, "either lock in the success of the holiday in advance or have to resign to fate".

Kipling Louttit, executive director of the Southern California Maritime Exchange, said tracking data showed that only 14 cargo ships had arrived in the last three days, and only 10 were scheduled to arrive in the next three days, but the "normal level of activity" over the three days should be 17 cargo ships.

He warned that the reduction in the number of cargo ships and containers arriving in the United States will further translate into a surplus of labor, trucks, trains and other parts of the supply chain, and that "they will lose their jobs because of the decrease in cargo arrivals."

Matson, a Hawaii-based cargo ship operator that offers expedited shipping services from China to Long Beach, California, has seen a 30 percent drop in container volumes from a year earlier than Trump tariffs since April went into effect. Matson has lowered his outlook for 2025 on May 5, citing tariffs, trade regulatory measures, U.S. economic issues and geopolitical issues.

Matt Cox, CEO of Matson, said on the earnings call: "We have limited visibility into our container demand. We expect container volumes to decline year-on-year in Q2 and at this point, it is difficult to determine whether the lower levels are temporary or will persist longer in 2025. The duration of the period of declining demand may depend on ongoing negotiations, as well as the timing of possible tariff adjustments. ”

On May 6, local time, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau showed that the U.S. international trade deficit in March 2025 was $140.5 billion, up from $123.2 billion in February, a record high. Exports in March were $278.5 billion and imports were $419 billion. [My Emphasis]
The above outcomes were all predicted by responsible economists and studiously ignored by Team Trump. Now we turn to the Trade War’s effects on the Tech War as described by this Global Times item: How US abuse of tariffs against China affects Apple – and why China holds the cards:

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[/quote]In recent days, international media have been paying close attention to Apple CEO Tim Cook's warnings about the potential impact of the tariff war on Apple's earnings. As one of the world's most valuable companies, Apple has a significant influence on the US economy, the global economy and people's lifestyles. The challenges that Apple faces are inevitably the challenges posed by the tariff war initiated by the US. The New York Times even published an article calling on Americans to replace their iPhones, while Bloomberg ran a headline: "Apple Reaches Critical Juncture With Tariffs, AI and Services Turmoil." This likely means that America's tariff war has also reached a critical juncture.

Apple CEO Tim Cook recently announced during the company's second-quarter earnings call that US tariffs on Chinese imports will cost the company an extra $900 million in the June quarter alone.

In response, Apple plans to shift most of its iPhone assembly to India for the US market. The company has already moved the assembly of iPads, Macs, Apple Watches and AirPods to Vietnam to reduce its dependence on China.

Irrespective of where production shifts, the inescapable consequence of Washington's tariffs will be a surge in prices, presenting a significant challenge for American consumers.

Unlike shoes or hats, which you might buy less if prices increase, smartphones, especially iPhones, are a different story. iPhones, which currently dominate about half the US smartphone market, have become an integral part of the people's daily lives. Let's face it: Many Americans would feel lost without their iPhones, even for a day or just a few hours.

Politicians in DC have long hoped Apple would bring production back home. However, Apple's dependence on China for production and market growth has only deepened since the Obama era. The US cannot take on iPhone production in terms of technology or workforce. About 90 percent of Apple products are now assembled in China, not to mention the thousands of apps developed for Apple devices.

If the US were to mandate that all iPhone assembly be done domestically, the financial implications would be significant. Wedbush analysts estimate that the cost of a single iPhone could triple, reaching around $3,500. Other calculations suggest that such a move could require hundreds of billions of dollars. These figures underscore the substantial economic impact of moving iPhone assembly back to the US.

Apple has shifted some assembly lines to countries such as India and Vietnam, but many components are still made in China. That's because China continues to lead the world in key manufacturing technologies, and there aren't easy alternatives for many parts. In other words, Apple's supply chain is tightly linked to China. This fact also means China holds essential the cards in any trade dispute.

A recent New York Times article entitled "You Should Think About Replacing Your iPhone—Now" points out that the US lacks the manufacturing expertise, competitive industrial clusters, and even the population density required to make Apple products en masse.

Some in Washington argue that China benefits more from China-US trade. But look at Apple: In 2023 alone, Apple's revenue from the Greater China region reached $73 billion—accounting for about 19 percent of its global revenue.

China will continue to innovate and grow, no matter what. In the long run, what will the US stand to lose? Anyone with a bit of strategic vision already knows the answer. [My Emphasis][/quote]

Well, I don’t miss not having an iPhone or a “smart phone”; I have a very basic flip-phone that fills my cell phone requirement. And we aren’t an Apple household either since we have none of its products. But I’m certainly aware of Apple’s tech prowess and business impact. As the author notes, Apple’s experience is the same as most tech companies in their relations with China. In an article about China’s shipbuilding industry and the attempts by Biden then Trump to wage war on that portion of Chinese industry, the following is also appropriate for all China’s manufacturing:
For all ship types, China's manufacturing accounts for only 23% of the world's ships in use, and with the current number of ships under construction, this proportion has only risen to 25%, and if only the ships under construction are counted, then the proportion of China-made ships can reach 53%. Taking into account the price, the value of all ships manufactured and being built in China will not exceed 20%, which is roughly the same as China's share of the world's population. China is a large country with a huge population, more than the population of all countries in the entire Western world (about 1.1 billion people), and it should not be surprising that the size of any industry in China is comparable to that of the entire Western world. [My Emphasis]
It really is that simple—China’s population and geographic size dictate how large its agriculture and industry—its economy—will become. That it has millions of engineers and other tech professionals indicates it will eventually become a top tech leader which it’s been demonstrating. India has a similar potential that unlike the Outlaw US Empire China welcomes, not fears. That the Outlaw US Empire disdains industrial policy and has even viewed it as evil is its choice, which is one main reason why it now lags behind global trend setters. And something similar can be said about education policy which is where all those engineers emerge from. The truth of the matter is ordinary Americans and Europeans have had very little say in the way their economies are designed and who they are made to serve. A quick look at where wealth is concentrated gives the game away, or ought to—today’s Western economies are designed to serve the elites, the top 10%, not the majority, and have been structured that way for many decades, prior to WW1 in most cases. China and Russia primarily have political-economies that are structured differently—they aim to serve the majority, not a tiny minority or Oligarchy—and more nations are joining their geopolitical efforts to create fairness and harmony so humanity can prosper. Standing against those efforts are the Collective West’s Neoliberals and Neocons with Trump standing as their leader—Trump wants to return society to the Gilded Age of 1880-1910, which is what all his policies are designed for.

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The cartoon explains a lot regarding the Empire at the very critical juncture of 1912 when several different future paths were possible besides the one we experienced. However, one political faction is omitted from the cartoon—the Socialists—and also vote that Labor isn’t depicted, while the majority of Americans weren’t legally allowed to vote—Women. So, as with the 1787 Constitution that established Oligarch rule, the 1912 election established Neoliberal rule, with only a brief interlude from 1933-1941, and created the economic and ideological structures that now imprison most of the nation and keep it from combining into a community to overcome the oligarchs. Perhaps this time with Make Americans Grow Angry the greater mass of the public will have an epiphany and combine to forge a different future path than that being forced upon one and all.

https://karlof1.substack.com/p/trade-wa ... icans-grow

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DOGE— Department Of Grifter Enrichment
Raymond Nat Turner, BAR poet-in-residence 07 May 2025

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“Empathy is the bane of western civilization.”

—Morally Bankrupt-Spiritual Pauper-AI Man


We must STOP scurvy-eyed pirates plundering our
Treasure! STOP skull and crossbones encroachments.
STOP savage redacting of rights! STOP treasonous hi-tech
Racketeers we dub: Department Of Grifter Enrichment …

We must STOP bullies in the china shop—
Breaking, wrecking, robbing everything that
Almost works. We must STOP them—
Before they demolish our grandchildren’s dreams!

We must STOP “Greed is good!” Gekko gangsters’
Vampiric sucking the body politic’s blood …
Dog bone dry … We must STOP them—
Before they demolish our grandchildren’s dreams!

We must STOP Ponzi-scheming predators prancing,
Dancing prince-like. STOP the gold-plated chainsaw
Dripping blood. STOP index finger pointing at us—
When middle, ring, and pinkie point back at them …

We must STOP aggressive grifters— heavy metal
Kleptocrats— guitars strung with barbed wire. STOP
Stiff salutes, jackboots— nazi visages branding our
Brains with absurd solutions for concocted ‘crises.’

We must STOP heartless Tin Men. STOP South African
Scarecrows cawing, “Waste! Fraud! And abuse! Oh, my!”
We must STOP electric
Werewolves howling loudly about ‘entitlement’ evils.

We must STOP wreckers and robbers. We must stand shoulder-to-
Shoulder and shout, “Entitle- Meant: dragging our wounded bodies
Into theaters of class-war! Into hostile environments— to work punch drunk—
Punching in/punching out … We earned ‘entitlements:’ The old-fashioned way!”

© 2025. Raymond Nat Turner, The Town Crier. All Rights Reserved.

https://blackagendareport.com/doge-depa ... enrichment
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Fri May 09, 2025 2:44 pm

Scott Bessent: A Soros Sidekick Who Failed When He Struck Out On His Own
Roger Boyd
May 08, 2025

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Scott Bessent is like a paper tiger, he carefully creates the external imagery of a knowledgeable and highly qualified man but in reality his life has been one of little real intellectual inquiry and much luck and personal failure. If he had been appointed under a Democratic president he may very well have been targeted as an ill-qualified DEI hire by the right due to his homosexuality (as well as for his deep links to George Soros)

He was born in 1962 in South Carolina to relatively wealthy French Huguenot and Scottish parents, and attended Yale University where he gained a BA in political science in 1984. He interned with investor Jim Rogers, and then worked for Brown Brothers Harriman and Kynikos Associates (Jim Chanos), before joining Soros Fund Management (the family investment office of the Soros family) in 1991. He was in the right place at the right time as Soros famously bet colossal amounts against the British Pound and won on what was termed “Black Wednesday”, the 16th of September 1992. Bessent stayed at Soros Fund Management throughout the 1990s, rising to head the London office, before leaving in 2000.

He then founded a US$1 billion hedge fund, Bessent Capital, but that closed in 2005. He then became a senior investment advisor to fund of funds Protege Partners as well as being an adjunct professor at Yale university in economic history. He was hired back by Soros Fund Management in 2011 as Chief Investment Officer, a role he held until 2015. Let’s remember that Soros is seen as one of the most successful financial investors and SFM is his family’s investment office. He would not be a “hands off” owner, and therefore the CIO role there would be nothing like being the CIO of a public investment firm.

Bessent then started Key Square Group, a macro investment firm, with a US$2 billion anchor investment from George Soros; an investment fully paid back by 2018. The firm’s extremely variable performance lead to a loss of investors, and assets under management shrank from US$5.1 billion in 2017 to US$577 million in 2023; i.e. it was a failure. But it paid very, very well. Like much of the hedge fund and private equity business, the partners make out like bandits even when their performance lags far behind a simple S&P 500 tracker fund. The Soros name, and in the second case financial backing, allowed Bessent to get customers for his two investment funds. The ridiculous fees prevalent in this financial sector then made him rich as he failed his investors.

From 2016 Bessent has supported Donald Trump, and become a more and more important fundraiser for Trump using his extensive connections in the financial world. He was rewarded with the position of Treasury Secretary, one that he has no relevant experience to fulfil. Bessent’s whole experience in the past three and a half decades is either working under George Soros (15 years), founding and running two failed investment firms (15 years), being an investment advisor (3 years), and as a part-time adjunct professor (4 years). He possesses a BA in political science from Yale. To say that these are underwhelming qualifications when compared to recent US Treasury Secretaries such as Yellen, Mnuchin, Lew, Geithner, and Paulson is putting it mildly.

Contrary to the image that he portrays, he has neither the intellectual achievements, nor the political experience, nor the administrative experience required for the job. This is shown in the highly simplistic view of the world that is portrayed in his speeches and other utterances, one utterly unhooked from reality.



At some level, he does represent the utterly simplistic view of most of the US oligarchy together with their inability to accept any responsibility for whats ails the United States. His answer to a question from CNN’s Kaitlin Collins about what he means by “short term pain” reveals a lack of ability to communicate, a shallow level of analysis and tortured logic.

Well, again I, I think there are, there are two, two things there to unpack, Kaitlin. One is on what we were doing on government spending. So, we are bringing down government jobs, we are bringing down government borrowing, so this unsustainable level of government stimulus is stopping. And then on the other side, private-sector jobs and private-sector borrowing will take over. Those may not be perfectly matched, but we did see an increase of 10,000 manufacturing jobs last month. On the other, when you think about, especially for working Americans, could we get a price adjustment due to the tariffs? Maybe, maybe not

Of course as a very rich man (worth around US$700 million) Bessent will not be feeling any of the pain that he is dishing out. In the interview below, Bessent shows a complete lack of how negotiating works and a real lack of knowledge of unfolding events, a simplistic view of how an economy works, and an inability to communicate clearly.



He comes across as a “light weight”, pushing the party line with a strange mix of simplistic cliches. Much of the media has tried to pass him off as a “respected investment manager”, but he failed twice and only succeeded when overseen by the very hands-on George Soros. More a sidekick than a boss. Compared to his equals in other nations, such as the Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo’an who was born in the same year as Bessent, he is a rank amateur. Before becoming Finance Minister in 2023, the Chinese Finance Minister had spent 35 years rising through the ranks of the Party-state succeeding in numerous finance and other positions. Lan has an undergraduate degree in finance. Prior to his current role, he was the Secretary of Shanxi Province (population 35 million). He personifies the relatively boring but highly effective technocrat that is preferable in such a role.



https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/scott- ... dekick-who

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Trump Team’s $500 Million Bet on Old Vaccine Technology Puzzles Scientists
Posted on May 8, 2025 by Yves Smith

Yves here. $500 million, for somewhat disfavored vaccine approach (because seizures, among other reasons), for a flu vaccine safety tested on only 45 people? This sounds like the medical industry version of vaporware. But why should HHS be any more pure than the rest of the Trump Administration by forswearing grifting?

Having said that, there is reason to think inactivated virus vaccines can provide broader immunity; that’s claimed to be true for the oft-maligned Sinovac (China) Covid vaccines.

And even though the flu, particularly in bad years, does kill people, it does not seem all that high on the list of public health risks, if nothing else by not being primed to turn into a full bore crisis, unlike, say, drug-resistant TB. In other words, even if this old vaccine approach does have merit, does it merit this level of priority?

By Arthur Allen, senior KFF Health News correspondent, who previously worked for Politico and the Associated Press, as well as writing freelance for publications such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, Smithsonian Magazine, and Slate. He is the author of the books “Vaccine: The Controversial Story of Medicine’s Greatest Lifesaver,” “Ripe: The Search for the Perfect Tomato,” and “The Fantastic Laboratory of Dr. Weigl.” Originally published at KFF Health News

The Trump administration’s unprecedented $500 million grant for a broadly protective flu shot has confounded vaccine and pandemic preparedness experts, who said the project was in early stages, relied on old technology, and was just one of more than 200 such efforts.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. shifted the money from a pandemic preparedness fund to a vaccine development program led by two scientists whom the administration recently named to senior positions at the National Institutes of Health.

While some experts were pleased that Kennedy had supported any vaccine project, they said the May 1 announcement contravened sound scientific policy, appeared arbitrary, and raised the kinds of questions about conflicts of interest that have dogged many of President Donald Trump’s actions.

Focusing vast resources on a single vaccine candidate “is a little like going to the Kentucky Derby and putting all your money on one horse,” said William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University professor and past president of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases. “In science we normally put money on a number of different horses because we can’t be entirely sure who’s going to win.”

Others were mystified by the decision, since the candidate vaccine uses technology that was largely abandoned in the 1970s and eschews techniques developed in recent decades through funding from the Department of Health and Human Services and the Defense Department.

“This is not a next-generation vaccine,” said Rick Bright, who led HHS’ Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, or BARDA, in the first Trump administration. “It’s so last-generation, or first-generation, it’s mind-blowing.”

The vaccine is being developed at the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases by Jeffery Taubenberger, whom Trump named as acting chief of the institute in late April, and his colleague Matthew Memoli, a critic of U.S. covid-19 policy whom Trump picked to lead the NIH until April 1, when Jay Bhattacharya took office. Bhattacharya named Memoli his principal deputy.

Taubenberger gained fame as an Armed Forces Institute of Pathology scientist in 1997 when his lab sequenced the genome of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, using tissue samples from U.S. troops who died in that plague. He joined the NIH in 2006.

In a May 1 news release, HHS called the Taubenberger-Memoli vaccine initiative “Generation Gold Standard,” saying it represented “a decisive shift toward transparency, effectiveness, and comprehensive preparedness.” Bhattacharya said it represented a “paradigm shift.”

But the NIH vaccine-makers’ goal of creating a shot that protects against multiple or all strains of influenza — currently vaccines must be given each year to account for shifts in the virus — is not new.

Then-NIAID Director Anthony Fauci launched a network of academic researchers in pursuit of a broadly protective flu vaccine in 2019. In addition to that NIH-led consortium, more than 200 flu vaccines are under development in the U.S. and other countries.

Many use newer technologies, and some are at more advanced stages of human testing than the Taubenberger vaccine, whose approach appears basically the same as the one used in flu vaccines starting in 1944, Bright said.

In the news release, HHS described the vaccine as “in advanced trials” and said it would induce “robust” responses and “long-lasting protection.” But Taubenberger and his colleagues haven’t published a complete human study of the vaccine yet. A study showing the vaccine protected mice from the flu appeared in 2022.

For Operation Warp Speed, which led to the creation of the covid vaccine during Trump’s first term, government scientists reviewed detailed plans and data from academic and commercial laboratories vying for federal money, said Greg Poland, a flu expert and president of the Atria Health Academy of Science and Medicine. “If that’s happening here, it’s opaque to me,” he said.

When asked what data beyond its press release supported the decision, HHS spokesperson Andrew Nixon pointed to the agency’s one-page statement. Asked whether the decision would curtail funding for the Fauci-created consortium or other universal vaccine approaches, Nixon did not specifically respond. “Generation Gold Standard is the most promising,” he said in an email.

Taubenberger did not respond to a request for comment. Nixon and NIH spokesperson Amanda Fine did not respond to requests for an interview with Taubenberger or Memoli.

The HHS statement stressed that by developing the vaccine in-house, the government “ensures radical transparency, public accountability, and freedom from commercial conflicts of interest.” While any vaccine would eventually have to be made commercially, NIH involvement through more stages of development could give the government greater influence on any vaccine’s eventual price, Schaffner said.

If the mRNA-based covid shots produced by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech represented the cutting edge of vaccine technology, applying ultra-sophisticated approaches never before seen in an inoculation, the approach by Taubenberger and Memoli represents a blast from the past.

Their vaccine is made by inactivating influenza viruses with a carcinogenic chemical called beta-propiolactone. Scientists have used the chemical to neutralize viruses since at least the 1950s. This whole-virus inactivation method, mostly using other chemicals, was the standard way to make flu vaccines into the 1970s, when it was modified, partly because whole-virus vaccines caused high fevers or even seizures in children.

The limited published data from the Taubenberger vaccine, from an initial safety trial involving 45 patients, showed no major side effects. The scientists are testing the vaccine as a regular shot and as an intranasal spray with the idea of stopping the virus in the respiratory tract before it causes a broad infection.

“The notion of a universal influenza A pandemic vaccine is a good one,” said Poland, who called Taubenberger an excellent scientist. But he added: “I’m not so sure about the platform, and the dollar amount is a puzzler. This vaccine’s in very early development.”

Paul Friedrichs, a retired Air Force general who led the Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy in President Joe Biden’s White House, said that “giving $500 million upfront with very little data to support it is unlike anything I’ve ever seen.”

“The technology for developing vaccines has tremendously evolved over many decades,” Friedrichs said. “Why would we go back to an approach historically associated with greater or more frequent adverse events?”

The government appeared to be transferring the money for the Taubenberger vaccine development from an existing $1.3 billion vaccine fund at Project NextGen, a mostly covid-focused program at BARDA, Friedrichs said. Most of that money was earmarked to support advanced research on covid and other viral vaccines, including those protecting against emerging diseases.

It is “very concerning that we’re de-emphasizing covid, which we may live to regret,” Poland said. “It assumes we won’t have a covid variant that escapes the current moderately high levels of covid immunity.”

Nixon said Project NextGen, for which some funds were earmarked for mRNA research, is under review. Kennedy is critical of mRNA vaccines, once claiming, falsely, that they are the deadliest vaccines in history.

Ted Ross, director of global vaccine development at the Cleveland Clinic, said he was “happy to see them investing in respiratory vaccines, including a universal flu vaccine, with all the programs they’ve been cutting.”

“But I don’t think this is the only approach,” Ross said. “Other universal flu vaccines are in progress, and their success and failure are not known yet.”

His team, part of the NIAID-funded flu vaccine consortium, is using artificial intelligence and computer modeling to design vaccines that produce the broadest immunity to influenza, including seasonal and pandemic strains.

As interim director, Memoli oversaw the start of the administration’s massive cuts at the NIH, with the elimination of some 800 agency grants worth over $2 billion. More than 1,200 NIH employees have been fired, and many researchers, including Ross, are in limbo.

His lab is close to testing a candidate vaccine on people, Ross said, while waiting to find out about its NIH funding. “I’m not sure whether my contract is on the chopping block,” he said.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/05 ... tists.html

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The Soviet feat and Trump's ignorance
May 5, 2025

By Hedelberto López Blanch* / Special Collaboration

Latin American Summary

President Donald Trump's historical and cultural ignorance is so vast that he is unaware of former President Franklin D. Roosevelt's views on the heroism of the army and people of the former Soviet Union in defeating Nazi forces during World War II (WWII).

With his usual bombast, Trump wrote on his Truth Social account, “Many of our allies and friends celebrate May 8th as VE Day, but we did more than any other country, by far, to produce a victorious outcome in World War II. Therefore, I am renaming May 8th as VE Day and November 11th as VE Day.”

And he added, “We won both wars; no one came close to us in strength, bravery, or military brilliance, but we never celebrated anything. That's because we no longer have leaders who know how to do it!”

Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, quoted none other than the 32nd President of the United States (from 1933 to 1945), Franklin Roosevelt, to refute this claim. The first was a statement from April 28, 1942, when he said: “On the European front, the most important event was the crushing counterattack of the great Russian Army against the powerful German group. Russian troops have destroyed, and are still destroying, more personnel, aircraft, tanks, and guns of our common enemy than all the other Allied nations combined.”

On February 4, 1943, in a letter to IV Stalin, he stated: “As Commander-in-Chief of the United States Armed Forces, I congratulate you on the brilliant victory of your troops at Stalingrad, achieved under your high command. The 162 days of epic fighting for the city, a struggle that has immortalized your name, as well as the decisive outcome that all Americans celebrate today, will constitute one of the most glorious chapters of this war of united peoples against Nazism and its imitators.”

In another letter to Stalin, dated February 22, 1943, Roosevelt emphasized: “These achievements can only be attained by an army with competent leadership, sound organization, adequate training, and, above all, the determination to defeat the enemy no matter what the sacrifices…The Red Army and the Russian people have undoubtedly put Hitler’s forces on the path to final defeat and have won the lasting admiration of the people of the United States.”

On a previous occasion, the current White House president declared that Russia “helped” Washington win the war.

Let us then ask ourselves: Has Trump read, or have his advisors told him, about Roosevelt's memoirs? Has he studied any documents or books about those wars? The answer, of course, is no.

Official data indicates that the USSR lost 27 million people in WWII, with incalculable material damage, reflecting the enormous Soviet contribution to the victory over Nazi Germany. The United States lost 418,000 people during the conflict and suffered no material damage on its territory.

There were many decisive battles in the defeat of German forces within Soviet territory, such as the resistance to the siege of Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), which lasted from September 8, 1941, to January 27, 1944, or 872 days, where entire families died of hunger and cold, but the Nazis could not take it.

Among these heroic deeds and love for the Fatherland, the Battles of Moscow (1941-1942), Stalingrad, today Volgograd (1942-1943) and the Kursk Arc (1943) stand out, just to name a few.

Let us recall that in June 1944, after the Soviets had dealt the greatest blows to the Hitlerite hordes and taken the strategic initiative away from the invaders, the Allies decided to open a second front with the landing in Normandy.

This allowed the Soviet Army to begin Operation Bagration, advance toward Berlin, and cross the German border in January 1945. In three weeks, they covered the vast territory between the Vistula and Oder rivers, coming within about 65 kilometers of the German capital. However, their advance was halted by the Nazis' Operation Solstice in February, also known as the Tank Battle of Stargardt, which postponed the Battle of Berlin.

Hitler turned Berlin into a massive fortress. Three defensive lines were built around the capital, with all access points mined. It was protected by three gigantic anti-aircraft towers, fortresses, barricades, tunnels, and bunkers. He had 460,000 men, 1,500 tanks, and 3,300 aircraft at his disposal for the defense.

Following a long-range air and artillery offensive, the Red Army attacked the Reichstag for the first time. On the evening of April 30, Hitler committed suicide, and at 9:30 p.m., Soviet troops captured the Reichstag and raised the Victory Banner on its dome.

In that single battle that culminated in the defeat of German fascism, the Soviets had 45,000 dead and 172,000 wounded.

The feat of the Soviet people cannot be compared to any other country. After this brief summary, one can only hope that one day Trump will learn a little world history. A task that will apparently be difficult.

(*) Cuban journalist. He writes for the daily Juventud Rebelde and the weekly Opciones. He is the author of "Cuban Emigration in the United States," "Secret Stories of Cuban Doctors in Africa," and "Miami, Dirty Money," among others.

Photo: XL Semanal/Archive

https://cubaenresumen.org/2025/05/05/la ... -de-trump/

Google Translator

******

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Yemen – U.S. concedes Maritime defeat
Originally published: Moon of Alabama on May 7, 2025 by B (more by Moon of Alabama) (Posted May 09, 2025)

Just two days ago I stated that the U.S. had lost its war against Ansar Allah in Yemen:

The Houthi can not be defeated. Soon a U.S. ship will get hit. From there the war could easily escalate into a war against Iran. There is a good chance that the U.S. would lose it.It is high time for the Trump administration to pull back from its Yemen campaign.

Last night Trump conceded that the campaign was lost. He order the U.S. fleet to retreat:

Trump Says the U.S. Will Cease Strikes on Houthi Militants (archived)—NY Times, May 6 2025
It was unclear whether the Houthis were going to stop impeding international shipping, which was the objective of the American bombing campaign.

The United States and Houthis in Yemen reached a deal to halt American airstrikes against the group after the Iranian-backed militants agreed to cease attacks against American vessels in the Red Sea, President Trump and Omani mediators said Tuesday.

“They just don’t want to fight,” Mr. Trump said. “And we will honor that and we will stop the bombings. They have capitulated, but more importantly, we will take their word. They say they will not be blowing up ships anymore.”But despite his claim of success, it remained unclear whether the United States had achieved its objective of stopping the Houthis from impeding international shipping after a costly seven-week bombing campaign.[/i]

The is nothing ‘unclear’ about the objective which the U.S. has obviously not achieved. The Houthi will continue to attack Israel related shipping as well as the Zionist entity itself:

The Houthis themselves stopped short of declaring a full cease-fire, saying that they would continue to fight Israel. And Houthi officials and supporters swiftly portrayed the deal as a major victory for the militia and a failure for Mr. Trump, spreading a social media hashtag that read “Yemen defeats America.”

The U.S. Navy has long run out of military targets in Yemen. Its ships have emptied their magazines. They can not replenish at sea and need to go to a friendly harbor that has the appropriate equipment (Crete, Bahrain).

Three F-18 fighter jets and some 20+ Reaper drones were lost during fighting the Houthi:

A Navy fighter jet failed to land on an aircraft carrier and plummeted into the Red Sea on Tuesday, marking the fourth major mishap involving the vessel and the third loss of a fighter jet deployed with it since the warship left home last year.

The latest incident, reported earlier by CNN, followed the loss of another jet, an F/A-18E, in an accident aboard the Truman last week in which the aircraft tumbled overboard after sailors aboard lost control of it while towing it in the ship’s hangar bay. A third fighter jet from the Truman was shot down accidentally over the Red Sea in December by another Navy warship, the USS Gettysburg, in an incident that triggered concerns about communication among warships and fighter jets in the region.The Truman also was involved in a collision in the Mediterranean Sea in February, prompting the service to fire its commanding officer, Navy Capt. Dave Snowden.


The U.S. Navy has spent over a billion dollar on ammunition on Yemen. It lost more than half a billion in flying equipment and managed to achieve nil.

Others will take note of that record.

The U.S. could have made this deal a month ago:

A senior leader of Ansar Allah, commonly known as the Houthis, told Drop Site News that if the U.S. ends its campaign of air strikes against Yemen, Houthi forces will commit to halting all attacks on U.S. ships in the region. “We do not consider ourselves at war with the American people,” said Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of Ansar Allah’s political bureau and a longtime spokesperson for the Houthis. “If the U.S. stops targeting Yemen, we will cease our military operations against it.”

Oman was, as usual, moderating talks between the U.S. and the Houthi. Iran was helpful in that it pressed for a deal.

Trump claims that Ansar Allah will stop shooting at U.S. shipping. There was no civilian U.S. shipping in the Red Sea in the first place:

There are fewer than 200 U.S. commercial vessels. Only about 80 are engaged in global trade. The small U.S. commercial fleet compares to 5,500 active Chinese-flagged vessels.

U.S. military shipping in the area is of no interests for the Houthi unless it is used to attack them.

How much other shipping in the area will revive to its previous levels remains to be seen:

Shipping volumes in the Red Sea continue to be depressed, currently around 50% lower than 2023 figures, according to data from SEB, a Swedish bank.“The prospect of a ceasefire agreement and enhanced security suggests a likely resurgence in commercial shipping operations in the region,” shipping analysts at SEB suggested in a note to clients this morning, arguing that car carrier and container markets are projected to experience the most significant rebalancing.

There is a lot of ambiguity as the Houthi will continue to target Israel related ships. Some might be owned by Israeli entities but are sailing under some other countries flag. Other ships may be held up or fired at because they carry goods designated for Israel.

Until the war on Gaza ends, and the Houthi campaign stops, international insurance companies are likely to ask for higher premiums for any ship that wants to sail through the Red Sea. It will take months of quietness before insurance premiums and traffic through the Red Sea will come back to a normal level. Egyptian income losses from a lack of Suez Canal crossings will continue.

https://mronline.org/2025/05/09/yemen-u ... me-defeat/

Trump would rather die than admit that it was he who capitulated.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Sat May 10, 2025 2:32 pm

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Meanwhile, in an alternate universe.

I persuaded my friend Vladimir Putin not to strike Kiev while the European leaders were there. Macron, Starmer, Merz. You could say I saved their lives. They should be grateful to me for the rest of their lives. (c) Trump

Meanwhile, Russia had no intention of striking Kiev until the end of the truce, which was well known to everyone, so they arrived on May 10, since the truce ends on the night of May 10-11. If there are any strikes, it will only be on the night of May 11 or 12.

A story from the series - how to invent a victory out of thin air without attracting the attention of the paramedics.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

More delusional every time I turn this machine on.

When Trump jumps the shark it will be spectacular, seeing that he hasn't apparently so far. You'd have thought 'Greenland' or 'Gaza Riviera'....
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Sun May 11, 2025 5:32 pm

Stages of a long journey
May 11, 15:02

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Stages of the great journey of Agent Donald.

1. Declare the beginning of a golden age for the United States amid record stock market crashes.
2. Break the nuclear deal with Iran, and then make a more or less similar deal with Iran.
3. Make a truce in Kashmir, which was violated within an hour.
4. Introduce 146% tariffs on China, and then try to roll them back.
5. Save the EU leaders from evil Putin, who only didn’t kill them all during the truce because of Trump.
6. Promise to make peace in Ukraine in 24 hours, and then declare that everyone is bad and the United States will leave.
7. Promise to expose all the pedophiles on Epstein’s list, and not expose the pedophiles on Epstein’s list.
8. Promise to seize Panama, Greenland, and Canada, but not even seize the Panama Canal.
9. Get hit on the head by the Houthis and announce that the Houthis are defeated and beg for mercy.
10. Announce that World War II ended on May 8 and the Americans won.

And more to come.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9832575.html

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I do hope that Trump's "good friend" Mr Putin has some choice words concerning who won WWII. I understand the needs of diplomacy but some things shouldn't be allowed to pass.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Donald Trump, Avatar of his Class, Capitalism & the Decline and Fall of Bourgeois Democracy

Post by blindpig » Mon May 12, 2025 2:25 pm

Trump seeking $1 trillion in Saudi investments during Riyadh visit: Report

Israel-Saudi normalization negotiations have reportedly been 'de-linked' from Washington's talks with Riyadh due to Netanyahu's refusal to reach a Gaza ceasefire

News Desk

MAY 11, 2025

Image
(Photo credit: Nicholas Kamm, AFP)

US President Donald Trump is reportedly seeking $1 trillion in investments from Saudi Arabia in an upcoming visit to the energy-rich Gulf Kingdom.
This comes amid reports that normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv has effectively "been delinked" from economic and security talks with Washington.
Trump is set to depart Monday on a four-day visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, with the trip expected to center on securing business deals and attracting new investments from the oil-rich Gulf states. The president will not visit Israel.

Reuters reported on 11 May that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to normalize relations with Israel at this time due to Israel's continuation of its war on Gaza and refusal to allow the establishment of a Palestinian state, according to US and Saudi officials.

"Establishing ties has become especially toxic for Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam, since the start of Israel's war in Gaza," Reuters wrote.

US officials have failed to convince their Israeli counterparts to agree to an immediate ceasefire in Gaza – one of Saudi Arabia's preconditions for any re-start of normalization talks, two Gulf sources and a US official stated.

Instead, Israeli leaders have expressed their desire to continue the war, which has killed well over 60,000 Palestinians, in an effort to ethnically cleanse Gaza of Palestinians and prepare it for Jewish settlement.

The reports contradict the optimism expressed by Trump's envoy to the region, Steve Witkoff, who told an audience at the Israeli embassy in Washington this week that he expected important progress on expanding the Abraham Accords, an agreement through which other Arab states, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, normalized relations with Israel.


"We think we will have some or a lot of announcements very, very shortly, which we hope will yield progress by next year," Witkoff said in a video of his speech before accompanying Trump on his trip to the region that will not include a visit to Israel.

As a result, Saudi normalization with Israel has "effectively been delinked from economic and other security matters between Washington and the kingdom, Reuters wrote, citing two Saudi and two US officials, all of whom requested to remain anonymous.

As a result, Trump's visit to the kingdom will focus on securing a trillion dollars' worth of Saudi investments in US companies, "including major deals in arms, mega-projects and artificial intelligence," Reuters wrote.

"The Trump administration wants this trip to be a big deal. That means lots of splashy deal announcements and collaborations that can be sold as being good for America," said Robert Mogielnicki, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, a think tank in Washington.

"Normalizing ties with Israel is a much heavier lift than rolling out the red carpet for President Trump and announcing investment deals," he said.

The Saudi government communications office did not reply to a request for comment, Reuters added.

In a related matter, an informed source told Palestinian newspaper Al-Quds on Sunday that the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) in Riyadh on Tuesday will also include Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

The source, who declined to be identified, said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman submitted the proposal, which received Trump's approval.

The source confirmed that MbS is looking forward to Trump's acceptance of the Saudi condition for the establishment of a Palestinian state, noting that achieving this would constitute one of the greatest and most important achievements of Saudi Arabia's active diplomacy.

https://thecradle.co/articles/trump-see ... sit-report

******

Trump Doubles Down on Gaza Cruelty With Threat to Cut UN World Food Programme Funding if the UN Rejects US Scheme (and a BRICS Note)
Posted on May 12, 2025 by Yves Smith

Those bothered by the New World Order According to Trump may have specific triggers. Mine is the way Trump has managed to make the moral cesspool of our support of Israel’s genocide even more mephitic and wantonly cruel. The Biden Administration had enough self-awareness to feign discomfort even as it backed Israel’s monstrous conduct. The Trump Team might be mindful of overextension with Iran and the Houthis. But the Trump Administration has largely shared Israel’s lack of inhibitions, indeed, apparent glee in the crude application of force to make the utterly wretched lives of Gazans (or more accurately, what is left of them) even more horror-filled. I wish I could to resign from the human race.

And of course, that’s not enough, not remotely enough. Yet brave sacrifices by those more noble than I am, from doctors and medics and ambulance drivers and journalists who have gone to Gaza and been tortured, killed, or survived with have life-changing injuries, to protestors beaten up, arrested, and threatened with an end of their pursuit of a degree, to Aaron Bushnell, have not seemed to slow the acceleration of the genocide juggernaut.

As most of you know, Israel has greatly upped the intensity of its starvation campaign and is having wonderful success, as the proliferation of worse-than-Biafra starving children images attests.

So in the small-bore Team Trump variant of “Never let a crisis go to waste,” which is, “Always use pushback to justify more bullying,” the Administration is using the well-warranted uproar over the starvation campaign to kick the UN bigly while stomping on Palestinians.

Oh, yessiree bob, the US has a plan to feed the Gazans. But it must be a US run plan, with shadowy new armed Israeli contractors distributing the aid. And if the UN does not capitulate, the US will cut the UN budget, not just for UNRWA, but also for the much bigger, both in funding and populations served, World Food Programme.

Now perhaps you can squint and see something positive here. The spectacle of starving children has gotten so ugly that even the Trump Administration has to pretend it’s going to Do Something to feed them. And this is another drop in the drip-drip-drip of undermining Netanyahu, since the US action demonstrates that his government was part of a problem but is not part of this solution.

We’ll turn later to an issue this gimmick raises. Where is the Global South, as in BRICS? South Africa bravely lodged its case with the ICJ and created a well-warranted furor. But now Trump is threatening to cut the funding of a major UN initiative that feeds populations well beyond those in Gaza. Perhaps there are some counter-measures being planned, but this strikes me an another case of the so-called Global South having serious and not-sufficiently acknowledged issues in moving beyond immediate BRICS goals of collaborating to create bi-lateral payments systems.

Highlights from the Financial Times’ Trump team gives ultimatum to UN over Gaza aid plan. First to what the plan amounts to. It actually is an Israeli scheme, just not one with the Israel government having a formal role:

Israel halted the entry of all food, water, and other essentials to Gaza in early March, after Benjamin Netanyahu’s government ended a two-month ceasefire in the shattered Palestinian enclave…

The Israeli government imposed the siege in a bid to pressure Hamas to release the hostages it still holds in Gaza, alleging that the group was siphoning aid for its own fighters and to sell on the black market.

Israeli officials, in co-ordination with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a little-known entity incorporated in Switzerland in February, have devised a new plan to funnel aid into the enclave with the assistance of US private military contractors that they claim will circumvent Hamas.

The UN on Sunday rejected the scheme as not fulfilling the “core fundamental humanitarian principles of impartiality, neutrality, and independent delivery of aid”….

In a GHF proposal seen by the Financial Times, the group says their scheme will provide assistance through the initial establishment of four “Secure Distribution Sites”. These would be set up in southern Gaza and secured by armed private contractors.

According to the proposal and several people briefed on the plan, Palestinians will be invited to the distribution sites, most likely on a weekly basis, to pick-up “pre-packaged rations, hygiene kits, and medical supplies”.

GHF has budgeted $1.30 per meal, including the cost of logistics, which it claims will be enough to provide every “at-risk civilian” with a 1,750 calorie meal.

There is plenty of reason to be suspicious, starting with Israel having before gunned down Gazans trying to pick up food at a distribution site in what is now called the Flour Massacre.

And some takes from Twitter:

Jeff Crisp
@JFCrisp
·
Follow
The US plan for aid to Gaza.
Private security companies and a very dodgy outfit set up by one of Trump's old mates, who he previously installed as head of the World Food Programme:


Ken Klippenstein
@kenklippenstein
·
Follow
REPORTER: Gaza needs 6.6 million meals a day; the US provided 11,500. It's a gap.

PENTAGON: I'm certain that every single bit of aid helps.


Chef José Andrés 🕊️🥘🍳
@chefjoseandres
·
Follow
This plan will fail as even people in the document of the roll out have said are no part of it. Already we have a plan to feed Palestinians.Done by Palestinians. Next to ⁦@WCKitchen⁩ ⁦@UN⁩ ⁦@WFP⁩ ⁦@AneraOrg⁩ and others.We need food!


A Hamas official suggests this eyewash is to burnish Trump’s image right before his Middle East visit:

Raylan Givens
@JewishWarrior13
·
Follow
🚨Hams opposes the US plan to distribute food in Gaza. Senior Hamas official Bassem Naim: We warn local officials not to become a tool in the hands of the "occupation" to implement its plans. Israel must provide food to the Strip as an "occupying" state. The "occupation's" Show more


Next, and here the pink paper give commendable coverage, is how the Trump Administration is bullying the UN to fall into line:

Donald Trump’s aides have threatened the UN and other international humanitarian groups with funding cuts and other sanctions if they do not back a new US-led aid plan for war-torn Gaza, according to people familiar with the matter…

The most significant threats were directed towards the World Food Programme (WFP) and the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, the largest aid providers in Gaza, according to three people familiar with Witkoff’s conversations.

The WFP was told that the US, its largest donor, would sever funding that currently makes up some 40 per cent of its budget, a step that would endanger programmes in trouble spots such as Sudan and Bangladesh.

According to one person familiar with WFP deliberations, the agency’s director Cindy McCain has stood “firm”. “It was a hard no [from her],” the person said. A WFP spokesperson did not return emails seeking comment…

UNOPS, the key logistics agency inside the global body, also faced US threats of a funding freeze.

Based on a fast look, the World Food Programme looks to be another one of those odd public-private initiatives. It says all of its money comes from voluntary donations. It won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2020 and But it is substantial, having raised $8.3 billion and assisting 152 million people in 2023. But its current funding level is well short of its needs, projected at over $16 billion for 2025. There is a lot of hunger out there!

UN officials seem divided on what to do. Again from the pink paper:

“Either way Israel and the US wins,” said the senior UN official. “Either the UN caves and plays along, compromising its humanitarian principles and neutrality, or the UN leaves and Israel gets to do this anyway with other partners.”

A second senior UN official, who does not support the new Gaza aid scheme, still criticised the global body for not engaging with Israel. “We prefer to remain religiously pious and not attend any talks on Gaza,” they said. “There’s an order from the top . . . they would rather die as heroes and show that we don’t blink under pressure.”

Now to my BRICS speech. Where is the Global South on this? Many countries look set to become collateral damage if the UN holds fast and the US does indeed seriously lower World Food Programme donations.

I will admit that my initial reaction shows that I have fallen for BRICS boosterism, as in many who are keen to see it succeed are projecting ambitions upon it that go well beyond any commitments so far.

In fact, the Kazan Declaration reaffirmed the central role of the UN, BRICS does not intend to supplant it but (somehow over time) to play a greater role in governance, as in a slow-motion (presumed not hostile) takeover:

5. We welcome the considerable interest by countries of the Global South in BRICS and we endorse the Modalities of BRICS Partner Country Category…We commit to further promoting BRICS institutional development.

6. We note the emergence of new centres of power, policy decision-making and economic growth, which can pave the way for a more equitable, just, democratic and balanced multipolar world order…we reaffirm our commitment to multilateralism and upholding the international law, including the Purposes and Principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations (UN) as its indispensable cornerstone, and the central role of the UN in the international system

If you search the Kazan Declaration on “food,” there are 7 hits. Many are to support the development of improved practices, such as:

114. We welcome the enlargement of the BRICS Network University as well as expansion of its research areas including mathematics, natural sciences, social and humanitarian sciences, sustainable agriculture and food security, health sciences. We agree to explore opportunities of cooperation between the BRICS member states to promote the development of the framework for mutual recognition of qualifications. We support continued dialogue on quality evaluation systems for BRICS universities,in line with their national education systems

There are also references to “unilateral coercive measures, including illegal sanctions” which means the Western sanctions on Russia, which among other things, interfered with Russian sales and supply of fertilizer, particularly to countries in Africa. There are also apple pie and motherhood statements about supporting smallholder farmers.

None are about emergency hunger relief. There are only two mentions of hunger, again backing initiatives in a general way.

So why are no BRICS members proposing to step in and make the US look bad? This could be a great way to undercut US power at key UN institutions.

Sadly, BRICS cannot do so as BRICS. BRICS has no budget. It is perhaps best thought of as an economic forum, even though many commentators (and I have too often made that mistake) tend to think of it as an organization.

But this is a long winded way of saying that if BRICS members, or the Global South, or whatever group of non Collective West states intend to have more influence over the behavior of major international organizations, they need to step up their funding in return for greater vote share. Or as the World Food Programme case indicates, hollow out US/EU influence by moving towards dominating the funding, and thus the operation, of initiatives that are particularly important to Global South members.

Yes, this sort of takeover will be a slow process. But I don’t yet see much thought, let alone effort, being devoted to haw to make that happen. I’d be delighted to be prove wrong. Any readers who can do so, please pipe up in comments.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/05 ... cheme.html

Trump has no policy or ideology other than 'Trump', though many of the grifters he's surrounded himself with do have bits and pieces thereof.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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