
By John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with
Preamble
1. Since 1943 the US and its European allies, including Germany (Olaf Scholz’s government, not Adolf Hitler’s), have aimed to liquidate the secular nationalist Arab leadership capable of co-existence with the West and a state for the Jewish people.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1 ... 0x600.jpeg
2. In Palestine Hamas has studied seventy-five years of lessons on the impossibility of coordinating Arab state war in the defence of the Palestine part of the two-state solution.
3. For more than a year, therefore, Hamas has prepared in well-kept secret an offensive against Israel to achieve five objectives – the first to demonstrate how inferior the Israeli military is, how vulnerable, how incompetent their intelligence on the Arab world. This has been achieved by the initial attack of October 7.
4. The second Hamas objective has been to demonstrate the Israeli plan of ethnic cleansing of Gaza, genocide against the Arabs, and incorporation of all Israeli-occupied territories in a single theocratic Zionist state — Quod erat demonstrandum. The third objective is to hold out against the expected Israeli counterattack for long enough to activate the Hezbollah forces on the northern Lebanon front; Syrian and Iranian forces on the eastern Golan front; and the West Bank Palestinians, including the Jordanian Palestinians; the latter’s targets will be US air and armoured land force bases in Jordan. So far, so good.
5. The final Hamas objectives are to compel the vacillating sheikhdoms to resist US pressure; limit oil and gas supplies to the enemy markets; prevent regional land base and air transit rights being activated in support of Israel — so far, so good. And lastly, the fifth objective, to engage the friendly nuclear powers – Russia, China – to deter, and if necessary combat US forces in the region and Israel’s threat to fire its nuclear weapons.

Left: the new history of the 80-year US protectorate in the Arab world. Right: Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas. On October 8, he announced: “We say to all countries, including our Arab brothers, that this entity, which cannot protect itself in the face of resistors, cannot provide you with any protection.”
The rules of war
6. These aren’t in the code of secular international humanitarian law referred to in the western media and by UN officials in support of Israel. Those rules were eliminated by the destruction of two generations of Arab leaders willing to abide by them. The war doctrine of Hamas does not concede that international law may dictate to or supersede Islamic law. In parallel, the war doctrine of Israel is that Jewish and Israeli law supersedes every other.

This report is the most comprehensive record in English to date of the official Israel statements of genocide against the Gaza Palestinians in intention, policy and practice. Source: https://ccrjustice.org/
In 1948, the United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide expressly included in Article II “the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group”. Forty years later, in 1988, the US Congress added two qualifiers to the provision in the US criminal code which defines genocide as a crime to be prosecuted if Americans commit it. This new US law declared genocide is “the specific intent to destroy, in whole or in substantial part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group”. “Substantial part,” the statute now said, meant “a part of a group of such numerical significance that the destruction or loss of that part would cause the destruction of the group as a viable entity within the nation of which such group is a part.” So long as the genocidal Arab killer isn’t “specific” in intention and the part of the people attacked isn’t “substantial”, the killer is off the hook in the US criminal code. This was a calculated US change to the crime of genocide. The US senator who drafted it and promoted it into law was Joseph Biden. For more, read The Jackals’ Wedding – page 14-18.
7. The Hamas offensive of October 7, OPERATION AL AQSA FLOOD ( عملية طوفان الأقصى, amaliyyat ṭūfān al-ʾAqṣā), is, as its code name indicates and in the interpretation of Islamic law, lawful self-defence, and the killing of Israelis, including civilians, lawful according to the retribution doctrine of Qisas. It’s clear there is a Koranic injunction against killing non-combatants, particularly children, the infirm, the old, and women. When women are combatants, as they are in the kibbutzim, they lose their exemption; also children, if they are armed and trained. So, the evidence question is — how many children under the age of arms-bearing were killed at the border settlements on October 7? And how did they die – by Hamas directly, or in crossfire between Hamas and IDF? The Israelis say one thing; Hamas says nothing.
8. It is clear the Israeli rules of war allow indiscriminate killing of children in offensive and defensive operations, in retribution and in collective punishment. No Palestinian Arab or Iranian is in any doubt that this has been Israeli policy from the beginning; that it has always been US policy to support it; and that the destruction of Gaza is the current episode of the long laid plan.
The two-state solution
9. Zionist ideology and Israel’s constitution have ruled out the two-state solution.

Incident map on the northern front between October 12 and 17; source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/
15. US forces on the Jordan front. The Israeli press has been reporting some details of USAF reinforcements at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in the northeastern corner of Jordan and possible Marine deployments in Jordan. Whether the Marines will be moved to defend the Al-Tanf base on the Syrian side of the border, 230 kilometres northeast of Muwaffaq Salti, isn’t known.

Top, right – the US airbase at Muwaffaq Salti; source: https://twitter.com/
According to an Israeli report, “a squadron of U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle bombers based in Britain was deployed over the weekend at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base east of the Jordanian capital of Amman. Another squadron of A-10 attack aircraft has also been deployed there.” Bottom, the location of Al-Tanf in Syria across the Jordanian and Iraqi borders.

16. Russian and Chinese navy deployments. The Russian fleet based at Tartous, Syria, is at sea, as reported here. At the moment, there are as many, possibly more Chinese vessels of the 44th Naval Escort Task Force in the Persian Gulf. The anti-surface, anti-submarine, and anti-air missile capabilities of the Type-052D destroyer can be followed here, and of the Type-054A frigate here. For the time being, the significance of this Chinese screen to deter a US-Israeli missile and aircraft attack on Iran has been missed in the western press and by Russian military reporters.


Top: https://russianfleetanalysis.blogspot.com/
Bottom: the Chinese Defense Ministry announcement of the arrival of the destroyer Zibo and frigate Jingzhou at Kuwait on October 19.
Armageddon strategy
17. US Afghanistan War veteran: “Suppose Israel and the US understand they are facing an existential survival future in which they must combat swarm attacks on three or four fronts — Gaza/Hamas, North/Hezbollah, Golan/Syria/Iran, and West Bank/Jordan, and they calculate the Arabs have at least a 30 to 60–day arms supply in stock, do they calculate they can withstand a multi-front offensive for enough time, resupplied by air from the US? If they calculate that they can withstand a 30-day multi-directional swarm, they must understand that, at a minimum, Israel’s infrastructure and economy will be ruined. In a scenario like that, even if they ‘win’, they lose. In terms of airlifting and shipping supplies, we’ve already seen that the Arabs can hit Israeli military and civilian airfields, airports and seaports. Defending Israeli infrastructure with their air defence capability is the main mission of the strike groups the US is deploying in the eastern Mediterranean and in the Red Sea.

According to the Pentagon on October 19, the USS Carney, a part of the USS Gerald Ford group, had transited into the Red Sea through the Suez Canal the day before and was in the northern Red Sea when it intercepted three land attack cruise missiles and several drones.
Western societies like Israel cannot function without solid, reliable, electrical power and communications services. We can be certain that power generation, transmission and distribution will be targeted by the Arabs non-stop. The cell towers and central communications centres will be too.”
18. Moscow source. “When does the threat to Israel become so dire, they go nuclear, and when they do, against what targets will they fire – Hamas, Beirut, Damascus, Teheran?* The US won’t accept a Palestinian state so the only option left for the Palestinians, Arabs, Iranians, possibly Turks is to fight with this new kind of warfare whose objective is to cut into the flesh and bones of the Israeli adversary, and make life in that state unviable. Without a Palestinian homeland, all of Israel and the Arab territories become a battlefield. The IDF options then shrink to two – carpet bombing and mass killing of the civilian population centres on all fronts at once. If that isn’t sustainable or effective for the Israeli-American purpose, then option 2 is to attack Lebanon, Syria and Iran to stop the flow of reinforcements. But that’s regional war, and it can only be conducted by the Israelis with full US military participation. This becomes nuclear very quickly because President Putin has already placed the Kinzhal missiles in range of the US carrier fleet in the eastern Mediterranean, and the Chinese have installed their screen to protect Iran. It’s obvious that the race hatred policies of Biden and Netanyahu, and their belief that God has chosen them both as destroyers for their people, lead to the final, nuclear weapons solution. The Russians and Chinese can maximise their limited military projection by deterring, or if need be pre-empting a nuclear attack on the Arab cities or Teheran. For this to work, the Russians and the Chinese need to say more – loudly so there’s no mistaking what they mean.”
[*] In 1983, in conversation with his General Staff, Iraq’s President Saddam Hussein said: “the Iraqis would be able to withstand three years of fighting in a war. However, the Israelis cannot withstand one year of fighting in a war.” In April 1990 Hussein was hosting Yasser Arafat of the PLO in Baghdad. “[Israel] has 240 nuclear warheads, 12 out of them for each Arab capital,” Arafat said. Saddam replied: “I say this and I am very calm and wearing a civilian suit [everyone laughs]. But I say this so that we can get ready at this level.” Quoted in The Jackals’ Wedding, page 16.
https://johnhelmer.net/memo-on-the-fina ... more-88712
******
Netanyahoo's Strategic Dilemma
Israel is a colonial settler state in permanent conflict with the suppressed natives.
It thought it could survive in that state, or even extend its settlements, by deterring opposing forces with its superior military.
Hamas has breached that deterrence myth by inflicting, in one day, more casualties in Israel than it had experienced in any previous wars.
Natanyahoo is under pressure to restore the deterrence, to again provide the Zionists with a feeling of superiority.
He can not do that.
Any land attack in Gaza means urban warfare in an already destroyed city with large underground facilities. During the taking of Bakhmut the Wagener forces had in total some 40,000 casualties (dead and wounded). The other side had more than 70,000. What price would the IDF have to pay to 'destroy Hamas'?
The other factor is of course Hizbullah and other resistance groups, which may well attack Israel from the north and various other directions. Hizbullah has loudly said it would do so should the IDF enter Gaza. It has some 100,000 missiles - more than enough to exhaust Israel's air defenses. Its longest reach missiles can attack any major city within Israel. There have already been daily fire exchanges at the norther border.
The 2006 war in Lebanon has shown that Hizbullah is dug in and very able to defend itself. It has since gained more experience by fighting ISIS in Syria. Neither U.S. air force attacks nor a land force invasion can hinder Hizbullah from firing its missiles.
(Syria, as well as Iran, will not intervene in the war unless they are directly attacked.)
Netanyahoo must attack Gaza to restore deterrence. He can not attack Gaza because the urban warfare would cause large Israeli casualties. He can not attack Gaza because Hizbullah would then destroy the myth of the superior settler state even more than Hamas has done so far.
Israel, with the help of the U.S., has tried to push the population of Gaza into Egypt. From Egypt's standpoint that would be a humanitarian solution, at least as long as others pay for it. But it would cause a serious strategic problem. Resistance by Hamas and others against Israel would continue indefinitely, but Egypt would be held responsible for it. It can not and will not take on that burden.
Netanyahoo's next idea was to starve Gaza. But the world will not let him do that. At least not beyond a certain point. Even the UN Secretary General has visited the Rafah crossing. Other global organizations, like the WHO and ASEAN, have spoken up. Pictures of starving people will make it impossible for the west to support that 'solution'.
Meanwhile Hamas fighters will continue to sit in their tunnels, ready to defend their land, and likely with enough provisions to hold out for months.
Israeli settlers, with the support of the IDF, are rampaging through the West Bank. They are killing more Palestinians and further enrage the global public against their deeds. This will escalate.
Israel's decision making is paralyzed. It will for now continue to talk of a ground invasion but will not launch one. It will also continue to starve Gaza.
But something will soon break. At any minute there might be a new large atrocity in Gaza or a pogrom in the West Bank. Any miscalculation in the north could launch that front into a hot war. Hizbullah could start to 'preemptively' invade Israeli proper.
But Israel's Jewish public is still demanding a war of revenge. It still needs the restoration of its deterrence and superiority.
But what if that turns out to be impossible to achieve?
Well. Then something else must change.
As Adam Shatz summarizes in the London Review of Books:
Vengeful Pathologies (archived)
The inescapable truth is that Israel cannot extinguish Palestinian resistance by violence, any more than the Palestinians can win an Algerian-style liberation war: Israeli Jews and Palestinian Arabs are stuck with each other, unless Israel, the far stronger party, drives the Palestinians into exile for good. The only thing that can save the people of Israel and Palestine, and prevent another Nakba – a real possibility, while another Holocaust remains a traumatic hallucination – is a political solution that recognises both as equal citizens, and allows them to live in peace and freedom, whether in a single democratic state, two states, or a federation. So long as this solution is avoided, a continuing degradation, and an even greater catastrophe, are all but guaranteed.
Posted by b at 14:52 UTC | Comments (382)
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/10/n ... l#comments
*******
The situation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict zone for October 21, 2023
October 21, 2023
Rybar
Mutual strikes and shelling continue along the Israeli-Lebanese border. And, if Hezbollah attacks military targets in the form of field camps and other IDF positions from anti-tank systems, using migrating crews, then the IDF burns out the Lebanese border area with retaliatory strikes. A similar situation occurred in the area of the Dovev base , where, in response to several ATGM missiles, IDF artillery burned the village of Yaron .
Protests by Palestinian youth continued in the West Bank ; in several refugee camps they escalated into violent clashes with security forces and even battles. In general, the intensity of the protests is somewhat subsiding due to the active work of the Israeli security forces, who detained about a thousand active participants in the clashes.
Massive Israeli air and artillery strikes on the Gaza Strip continue . The IDF regularly reports targets hit, while the Palestinians release images of destruction and dozens of dead and wounded civilians. According to the Qatari channel Al-Jazeera, in the enclave in just one day, 195 people were killed and 439 were injured, excluding those remaining under the rubble.
In addition, an agreement was reached on the opening of the Rafah checkpoint . 20 trucks carrying humanitarian aid entered the Gaza Strip, including body bags, supplies of which Palestinian medical facilities said were depleted. However, the Israeli authorities did not allow fuel into the enclave, which was also necessary for hospitals. In addition, shortly after opening, the checkpoint was closed again due to the work of IDF aviation.

Progress of hostilities
Northern direction
Palestinian factions carried out several strikes in Ashkelon and Sderot , damaging houses and cars. Footage of fires occurring at the scene was published online. In addition, shelling was reported at Tel Aviv , as well as neighboring Gush Dana , where out of five missiles, three were intercepted, one fell into the sea, and the last hit open ground.
Eastern and southern directions
A similar situation has developed in this area. Hamas fired at nearby settlements: two shells landed in a vacant lot in Netivot , and Kibbutz Nirim also came under mortar fire .
Gaza Strip
Israeli troops continue to massively shell the Gaza Strip, including using incendiary ammunition. In addition to Gaza itself , Jabaliya , Al - Shati , Tal - al - Hawa and other settlements were under fire . In addition, attacks were again carried out on the south of the enclave: despite the opening of the Rafah checkpoint , a series of explosions were reported in the vicinity of the city of Rafah itself , as well as in neighboring Tal al - Sultan .
At the same time, the Israel Defense Forces published another compilation of night strikes on targets in the Gaza Strip. The footage shows the collapse and destruction of high-rise apartment buildings. The press release emphasizes that they destroyed firing points, headquarters, command posts and other objects. Just a couple of years ago we could observe filigree strikes on individual floors where fire targets were located. They were usually preceded by "roof knocks" - the dropping of empty blanks on the roof of a house a few minutes before the impact, in order to warn civilians and force them to evacuate. Now - judging, again, from footage on the Internet and official reports - the Israel Defense Forces have stopped bothering with such things.
Border with Lebanon
Israeli shelling of the outskirts of Yaron
Hezbollah continues to maintain tension by firing at Israel from Lebanon . The Israelis fire back. If previously this was observed in the area of the Shebaa farms near Mount Har Dov and in the Syrian part of the Golan Heights, now the geography has changed slightly and the intensity has increased. So, during the day, the group’s fighters fired at Hanita , Dovev , Margaliot , Menara and the area near Baram . In turn, the IDF's targets included Hezbollah's alleged positions near Alma al - Shaab , Yaron , Ait al - Shaab and Maroun al - Rasa . In addition, footage of Israeli Hermes family drones conducting reconnaissance along the entire contact line was distributed online.
Both sides continue to suffer losses. Today, the Israel Defense Forces announced the death of 22-year-old reservist sergeant Omer Balawa (killed as a result of being hit by Israeli equipment from a Lebanese ATGM). Nevertheless, Hezbollah never fully intervenes in the conflict. And in this context, the statement of Brigadier General Tamir Heyman, head of the National Security Research Center (former head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate in 2018-2021) is quite interesting. He says that if Hezbollah increased pressure in the north, Israel would be forced to delay the clearing of the Gaza Strip and focus on the war with the Lebanese.
And an extremely interesting picture emerges: Hezbollah will intervene when the escalation reaches a new level (the start of a ground operation), but Israel will, apparently, be forced to abandon the cleansing of the Gaza Strip if Hezbollah intervenes. And while the parties are busy maintaining the desired level of conflict.
West Bank
Clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinians do not subside: according to the latest data, more than a thousand local residents have been detained during the conflict. In Ramallah , the IDF occupied the house of the deputy head of the Hamas Politburo, Saleh al - Arouri , who has not lived there for more than ten years. In addition, protests continued in the Beit area , Rantis , Hebron , Deir Samet , Al Hadar and other localities.
Political-diplomatic background
On the opening of the Rafah checkpoint
The American Embassy in Israel announced the resumption of work at the Rafah border crossing on the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. Apparently, the opening of the humanitarian corridor is indeed the result of the release of two American hostages, 59-year-old Judith Ranaan and 17-year-old Natalie Ranaan . In the American segment, they were promoting with all their might the case of the successful rescue of ordinary American women: a call to Joe Biden with thanks, and a speech by the father of the family, and stories about an ordinary family that was taken care of by the American government. From the point of view of media promotion of the image of the United States as a peacemaker and protector of its own citizens, it turned out really well. Is it true. nothing is known about the fate of the other 200+ hostages. But so far, against the backdrop of successful operation extraction, everyone has somehow forgotten about them.
At 10.00 am, the Rafah checkpoint was opened, through which 20 trucks with humanitarian aid were able to pass. The Israeli side, however, did not allow the import of fuel, which is necessary, among other things, for the operation of hospitals. According to media reports, after a short time, the work of the checkpoint was stopped again, presumably due to Israeli strikes on the southern part of the Gaza Strip. Egyptian trucks brought humanitarian aid to the border, and vehicles from the Red Crescent and relevant UN agencies arrived from the Palestinian side. It is humanitarian organizations that are engaged in its subsequent delivery and distribution in the Gaza Strip.
On the difficulties of the IDF ground operation in the Gaza Strip and the delay in its start
The Washington Post decided to simulate the situation: what would happen if a decision was made to launch a ground operation by the Israel Defense Forces in the Gaza Strip. In general, there is nothing surprising in such approaches. Even during the war with the “Islamic State” and urban battles in Iraqi Mosul, where the militants did not have several decades to prepare the infrastructure that the troops of the International Coalition and local security forces faced the same typical problems.
The Gaza Strip has been turned into one continuous fortified area - adjusted for destruction and mountains of garbage on the surface, of course. And after large-scale bombings and tens of thousands of broken destinies, the human reserve of the Palestinian groups in the person of desperate Gazans became much larger than a month ago. If we ignore the factor of interference in the conflict by third countries, the Israel Defense Forces will take a long time to clean up Gaza on their own. And there will be many casualties among military personnel. This fact cannot be ignored in Lebanon and Iran (it would be strange if they did not take advantage of such an opportunity there). Even now, even in the United States, they are calling on the nationalist government of Israel to at least postpone the operation, explaining this by the need to rescue captive foreign citizens. And it seems that so far in Israel they have listened to this.
At the same time, today the IDF said that it will enter Gaza under the best and most suitable circumstances for them, while as of today it has decided to double its air attacks on the enclave.
About the summit on the Palestinian issue in Cairo
The Cairo summit was attended by leaders and foreign ministers of over 30 states, as well as representatives of international and regional organizations. Representatives of Israel , the United States and Iran were not present at the meeting . The summit participants called to prevent the expansion of the conflict, to protect civilians in the Gaza Strip and condemned the use of violence against civilians on both sides. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that the Hamas attack on Israel cannot justify the actions of the Israeli military in the Gaza Strip. While the heads of Egypt and Jordan called for international protection of the Palestinians and an immediate ceasefire.
About the protests in Tel Aviv
Hundreds of families of missing and kidnapped citizens protested in front of Kiriya's office in Tel Aviv . In addition, photographs of missing Israelis were posted on the streets of the city. Earlier, Israel Defense Forces spokesman Daniel Hagari said that the number of hostages held in the Gaza Strip was at least 210 people.
About the action in support of Palestine in the UK
Despite the rainy weather, one of the largest mass protests in recent years took place in London : more than 100 thousand people took to the streets of the city in support of the Palestinians. A variety of people, some with entire families, came to the demonstration. They mainly called for respect for the rights of Palestinians. It is significant that there were virtually no anti-Semitic posters at the demonstration. Similar actions also take place in almost all Arab and Muslim countries of the Middle East.
https://rybar.ru/obstanovka-v-zone-izra ... 2023-goda/
Google Translator
*******
Russia Isn’t Expected To Stop Israel’s Strikes In Syria

ANDREW KORYBKO
OCT 22, 2023
From Russia’s perspective, Syria has the right to militarily cooperate with Iran, but Israel also has the right to prevent the opening of a second front too.
It was earlier assessed that “Russia Is Unlikely To Let Syria Get Involved In The Latest Israeli-Hamas War” because it doesn’t want the conflict to expand, but it also doesn’t control Syria so there’s only so much that it can do in this regard. That’s why the preceding analysis also predicted that “In the event that Damascus still does so in defiance of Moscow and the latter is unable to stop it in time, then the Kremlin will likely let Israel respond however it deems necessary to defend itself and the Jewish people.”
This forecast was confirmed several times thus far after Israel bombed Syrian airports on the pretext of impeding Iranian arms shipments without Russia intervening to stop it despite Moscow later protesting that these attacks violate international law and destabilize the region. The Kremlin is expected to retain this position since it’s the most pragmatic one possible. From its perspective, Syria has the right to militarily cooperate with Iran, but Israel also has the right to prevent the opening of a second front too.
That’s why Russia protests Israel’s violation of international law but never does anything to prevent its recurrence since it tacitly regards these attacks as the so-called “lesser evil” when compared to the scenario of Iran opening up a second front against the self-professed Jewish State in Syria. Such a front could still be opened from Lebanon, however, which could prompt a large-scale joint Israeli-American bombing campaign at the very least and is precisely what Russia wants to avoid having happen to Syria.
All of its anti-terrorist successes there since 2015 could be reversed in an instant should that happen since it would create space for the revival of ISIS and other groups, thus restoring the security threats that they posed to Russia back then and which triggered its intervention in the first place. To be sure, any large-scale bombing of Lebanon could lead to similar such threats, but they could be managed a bit better since that country’s neighbors – Israel and Syria – wouldn’t let foreign fighters enter the fray.
Another reason why Russia is so strongly against Syria opening up a second front in the Israeli-Hamas war is because of the political pressure that this would place upon it. The Mainstream Media would claim that Moscow had a hand in this, thus extending false credence to Zelensky’s debunked conspiracy theory that it helped orchestrate Hamas’ infamous terrorist attack in early October, while Russia also knows how bad it would look in the Global South’s eyes if it stands aside as Israel destroys Syria.
It's not going to risk World War III with Israel’s American ally just for the sake of protecting its security interests in Syria, which is why there’s no credible chance that Russia would militarily intervene to stop this scenario, hence the aforesaid assessment of the soft power consequences that it wants to avoid. Accordingly, Russia is expected to continue letting Israel bomb Iranian assets in Syria with impunity since these attacks aim to prevent the opening of a second front, which is against its interests as explained.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-i ... op-israels
Dunno about this, basically makes sense, but I dunno how much damage to Syria Russia will stand for. Then there is the matter of the Golan Heights, if Israel is forced to draw units away from there to make up for the serious shortcomings of it's reservists that could prove a very tempting target for Syria.























































































