Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Feb 25, 2025 12:37 pm

In defense of war
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 02/25/2025

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Aware of the importance of the moment and the precariousness of his position, in the midst of a tough negotiation with his main ally to try to guarantee that the economic colonization that his supplier wants takes place in exchange for a future military presence and not just as payment for services rendered, Volodymyr Zelensky began on Sunday the commemoration of the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of February 24, 2022. He did so in a multitudinous act in which he insisted that he is not upset by having been called a dictator by Donald Trump, the man he cannot afford to offend, he insisted that he does not aspire to perpetuate himself in power for decades and he even offered his resignation if that facilitates a just peace or Ukraine's entry into NATO.

Accustomed to taking every word coming out of Ukraine at face value, the Western media were quick to make this statement headline news despite the emptiness of its words. Zelensky offers his position in exchange for two dreams that would require an all-out war against Russia that Washington is not prepared to wage. A just peace is, in the jargon of the Ukrainian government, synonymous with territorial integrity, something that, like accession to NATO, is highly unlikely after three years of fighting against Russia and in a situation where it is Moscow's troops that hold the initiative at the front and, for a few days now, also in the rearguard of diplomacy. Yesterday, for the first time since 2022, the United States voted against the resolution of Ukraine and its European allies that blames Russia for the war and calls for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territories according to their 1991 borders, that is, including Crimea.

Peace talks have not yet begun – there have only been talks between Russia and the United States to reopen channels of communication, which is why Ukraine’s exclusion from the Riyadh meeting cannot be considered an expulsion from the peace negotiation process on its territory – but Kiev and its European allies are actively fighting to protect the status quo . Hence yesterday’s summit, where heads of state and government flocked to Kiev, paid their respects to the victims on Maidan Square and once again repeated the slogans of the past three years, less credible this time when they no longer have the unconditional support of the United States, on whom the military effort depends. In Kiev, the President of the European Parliament called for “freedom for Ukraine and lasting peace for all of Europe and the world”, in a message which once again insisted that “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”. “Putin wants to divide us. "Today we have shown that our support for Ukraine is firm, united and unchanged," said Antonio Costa, despite the fact that the main ally, the United States, was not only absent, but also distanced itself from the European countries and their tactic of avoiding peace negotiations.

The habit of carrying out symbolic acts such as lighting up EU institutions with the colours of the Ukrainian flag or speaking in the form of advertising slogans was repeated with each of the commonplaces that have been uttered in the last three years. “For three years, the Ukrainian people have bravely and heroically defended themselves against the Russian war of aggression. Day after day. Week after week. No one yearns for peace more than they do. We remain at your side: for a just and lasting peace,” wrote Olaf Scholz, accompanying the text with an archive image in which he and Zelensky look at the memorial in memory of the victims. A short distance away, a candle with the modified wolfsangel of the Azov movement can be seen. With an image of the same place, Ursula von der Leyen wrote that “On Maidan, we honour the fallen and those who are still fighting on the front. Europe stands with Ukraine and strengthens its courageous resistance. Through strength, they will achieve a just and lasting peace. A peace worthy of their ultimate sacrifice.” In the usual tone, Western leaders praised the courage and unity of the Ukrainian people, forgetting that part of the population that has suffered for years from the assault of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a courage and fight for their rights that has no place in the simplistic discourse of those who today only want to protect Ukraine's right to continue the war until achieving its impossible objectives, some of which would have to be achieved against the opinion of the local population.

The President of the European Commission, who said that Ukraine's "resistance" is the "absolute priority", announced that kyiv will receive 3.5 billion euros from the European Union in March, funding intended to sustain the State, which not only depends on foreign subsidies to continue the war but also to stay afloat. However, the fight is the reason for the existence of today's Ukraine and yesterday there were many military packages announced. By surprise and without prior approval of Parliament, Pedro Sánchez announced "a new military aid package worth 1 billion euros to the Ukrainian people", always understanding this last concept as the correct Ukrainian people. The dead and wounded yesterday in Gorlovka, a city that has been on the front line for eleven years and being the target of Ukrainian artillery, do not need help, solidarity or compassion.

The United Kingdom, which wanted to commemorate the third anniversary of the Russian military intervention by announcing with great fanfare “the largest package of sanctions” since the beginning of the war, also took advantage of the media interest that the date was going to provoke to accompany the new coercive measures with a large package of military assistance. Since the United States distanced itself from the eternal war until achieving Ukraine’s objectives as the only acceptable way out of the conflict, London has become the main exponent of the militaristic path that it will try to present to Donald Trump this week. “Lasting peace will be forged through force,” the British Foreign Office stated yesterday in terms very similar to those of Volodymyr Zelensky. “This year should be the beginning of a real and lasting peace,” said the Ukrainian president, adding that “Putin is not going to give us peace or give it to us in exchange for something. We have to win peace through force, wisdom and unity.”

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Questioned from the White House, Zelensky received the unconditional support of Canada and its European allies both in person and from afar. “For three years, Ukraine has been fighting with a courage that requires respect against an aggressor: Russia. For its sovereignty and freedom. Our support for Ukraine will remain unwavering. I am in Washington to remember it and to move forward with President Trump and our allies,” wrote Macron, appealing to Ukraine’s sovereignty, which today has lost 18% of its territory and its main ally is demanding control of its natural resources, a utopia.

“Three years after Putin’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine, Prime Minister Starmer has reiterated his support for President Zelensky,” wrote the office of the British Prime Minister, who was also absent from the Ukrainian capital, where another great friend of Ukraine, Boris Johnson, was. “All we are hearing about Ukraine being responsible for the war, you could say that swimmers are responsible for the shark attacks in the film Jaws,” he said in an appearance on the BBC . “I am proud to be here in Kiev on the third anniversary of Putin’s invasion. I salute the continued heroism of the Ukrainian people in resisting a vile act of unprovoked aggression and categorically reject the outlandish falsehoods currently being spread about the origins of that war. “I urge people to remain calm and to look at the facts of the continued US support for Ukraine under Donald Trump and I remain convinced that Ukraine will have a great future as a free, sovereign and independent nation,” he wrote on social media in a message that ended with the OUN chant “Slava Ukraini”, another of the constants that were repeated throughout the day. That was also the ending chosen by the official account of the German representation in NATO, which after stating that “Germany firmly supports Ukraine and will continue to provide military support in the form of material, training and international coordination as long as necessary”, also used the slogan used by its current and former allies.

After three years, routine is back in the news. Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa were smiling as they arrived at the Kiev train station. The Ukrainian capital remains the place where the European political establishment reaffirms its unconditional support for Ukraine, its commitment to war and repeats over and over again the same actions that have already failed in the past, hoping for a different result. As expected, the EU announced yesterday its sixteenth package of sanctions against Russia at a time when the United States is beginning to talk about the possibility of lifting - if certain conditions are met - some measures that, in any case, have not achieved the objective they sought, to destroy the Russian economy. Even so, and taking into account that the propaganda fight and the imposition of discourse is as important as the real battles in the military trenches, Kaja Kallas wrote proudly: “The EU delivers: Foreign Ministers have just approved the 16th package of sanctions against Russia. It affects everything from the ghost fleet to video game controllers used to control drones. We now have the most extensive sanctions ever imposed, weakening Russia's war effort. This time, unlike the previous fifteen, the EU will succeed in weakening Russia's military effort.

On a special date, surrounded by many of his main allies, Volodymyr Zelensky took advantage of the media platform to also insist on his most repeated narrative. “NATO is the most cost-effective option to avoid another war. It is the simplest and most logical solution. If Ukraine does not join NATO, we will have to create NATO inside Ukraine, which means maintaining an army strong enough to repel aggression, financing it, producing and storing enough of our own weapons and negotiating with our partners about their participation to deter Russia from starting another war. That is why we are talking about a comprehensive system of security guarantees: military, economic and political. We have to weigh everything: what is cheaper, what is more realistic and what can be done faster,” he wrote, insisting once again on the idea of ​​NATO membership, which was also supported by the head of EU diplomacy. Both are aware that demanding membership in the Alliance is the perfect recipe to ensure that there can be no peace agreement.

“The most solid, and actually the cheapest, security guarantee is NATO membership. If NATO membership is not on the table, even though we agreed that Ukraine’s path to NATO is irreversible, we agreed on that. So, in the end, Ukraine must also be a member of NATO. If it is not in the first phase, then all countries that have offered security guarantees have to answer questions about troops on the ground, about ammunition supplies, in order to really ensure security,” Kaja Kallas said yesterday in a statement so similar to that of the Ukrainian president that they could even be confused. The two options on the table for Kallas are joining the Alliance or the presence of troops from member countries, which are also the two options that Zelensky is considering and are not viable as part of a peace agreement with Russia.

In his speech, the Ukrainian president demanded that Russia win the world’s trust step by step, starting with an exchange of prisoners “all for all,” an idea that was repeated so many times during the years of the Minsk process and that Ukraine systematically sabotaged. Now that kyiv needs to recover its prisoners, far more numerous than the Russian soldiers in Ukrainian hands, to replenish its ranks, Zelensky presents the idea as an outstretched hand to Russia. But beyond these falsely generous offers, the Ukrainian speech continues to focus on its usual proclamations. “The position of the president and the position of the entire team remains unchanged: there can be no compromises on our independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty,” he said yesterday, flanked by the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the President of the Rada, Andriy Ermak, Zelensky’s right-hand man. Recovering its territories and entering NATO remain Ukraine’s two objectives. Both Kiev and those who advocate unconditional support for Ukraine as long as necessary and continue fighting until a position of strength is achieved are aware that none of these objectives can be achieved by any means other than military escalation, which is apparently seen as the lesser evil. As Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has stated, “peace in Ukraine could be more dangerous than the current war.”

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/02/25/en-de ... la-guerra/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
⚡️ Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 25 February 2025)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out an air-launched precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles strike on the infrastructure of Ukrainian military airfields. The strike objectives were achieved.

— In the Kharkiv direction, units of the North force grouping inflicted losses on formations of a motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Vovchansk and Liptsy in the Kharkiv region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 35 servicemen, two vehicles and an artillery piece.

— Units of the West force grouping improved their tactical situation. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized brigades, an assault brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Kamenka, Lozovaya in the Kharkiv region and Makeyevka in the Luhansk People's Republic.

The enemy's losses amounted to 190 servicemen, five vehicles and eight field artillery pieces, two of which were produced by NATO countries. The electronic warfare station "Kvertus" and an ammunition depot were destroyed.

- Units of the "Southern" group of forces took up more advantageous lines and positions. They defeated formations of three mechanized and an airmobile brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Stupochki, Chervone and Konstantinovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 140 servicemen, four combat armored vehicles and two cars. Two ammunition depots were destroyed.

- Units of the "Center" group of forces improved the position along the forward edge. They defeated the manpower and equipment of four mechanized, an assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Zverevo, Sergeyevka, Udachnoye, Shevchenko, Andreyevka and Uspenovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy lost up to 305 servicemen, seven combat armored vehicles, a car and three artillery pieces.

— Units of the "East" force group continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense. They defeated formations of two mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and three territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Burlatskoye, Skudnoye, Volnoye Pole of the Donetsk People's Republic and Gulyaipole of the Zaporizhia region.

The enemy's losses amounted to over 150 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, three cars and three field artillery guns.

— Units of the "Dnepr" force group defeated the manpower and equipment of two mechanized brigades and a coastal defense brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Shcherbaky of the Zaporizhia region, Tokarevka and Prydniprovskoye of the Kherson region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 85 servicemen, a combat armored vehicle, a car and an ammunition depot.

— Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have damaged production sites of strike unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as temporary deployment points of armed formations of Ukraine in 144 districts.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Previously 'Unthinkable' Now Reality, as Zelensky Floats Resignation on SMO's 3rd Anniversary
Simplicius
Feb 23, 2025

Well, that went more rapidly than I had anticipated. Another glass ceiling has been shattered as the previously-unspeakable becomes common reality: Zelensky announces that he’s ready to resign immediately in exchange for Ukraine’s entry into NATO.

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(Video at link.)

All it seemed to take was a few tweets from Musk, and Zelensky’s already drawing up evacuation plans.

Political schemer Arestovich outlined his predictions for Zelensky’s fate: (Video at link.)

But while I use Zelensky’s pronouncement to dress the stage, the main intention was to use this brief report as a battlefield update, given that we haven’t done a proper frontline Sitrep in a while. Part of it had to do with the slow-down on the front, partly due to weather and partly to Russian forces taking a breather. Now there are indications that higher-intensity hostilities are restarting on a number of fronts.

The most unexpected was toward Seversk, where Russian forces of the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade were said to have finally captured the indomitable fortress of Belgorovka:

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I call it a fortress somewhat tongue-in-cheek, as the area has changed sides many times, and is a rather small but inexplicably intractable section of the front that Russian forces have not been able to decisively break for years. Its seizure now appears to point to the long-expected flagging of Ukrainian defenses all across the frontline.

This is particularly the case given Ukrainian territorial losses elsewhere—in fact this is only the second ‘Belgorovka’ to be captured recently, as another one just northwest near the Terny front was also taken weeks ago. Russian forces, likely of the 4th Guards Tank Army and 144th Motor Rifle Division, had only just crossed the Zherebets river near Terny last month, and now are also advancing in the old Lyman direction:

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The white line shows the river and reservoirs which Russians had only recently crossed. The objective is to reestablish the old Lyman line as a precursor to assaults on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

Meanwhile, in the Kupyansk district, Russian forces have continued expanding the ‘lodgement’ over the Oskil river into a whole new front. Further down on the Chasov Yar front, Suriyak reports modest Russian advances several days ago:

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Situation on Chasov Yar front: During the last seven days Russian Army made important advance south of the town taking full control over "Krab" forest area reaching the outskirts of Stupochky village.

On the Pokrovsk front, Russian forces are expanding westward:

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There are other small advances here as well, on the eastern line near Pokrovsk, with Berezovka being captured two days ago. There is no particular strategy, but rather as Ukrainian officers have recently described, Russian forces are continuously probing for weaknesses along the front, and simply making opportunistic advances wherever there’s a gap. Then they consolidate these advances and tactically decide on how to turn them into advantageous mini-cauldrons to further weaken and pressure enemy forces there.

To zoom in closer on the Kurakhove front just south of there, we can see that Russia has collapsed most of the grand Kurakhove cauldron, which is roughly shown by the yellow circle below:

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The red circle is where the current advances have been taking place, into Konstantinopl, which has created another mini-cauldron between Andreevka above. For comparison, here’s an image of the region from January, showing how much Russian forces have captured there in several weeks’ time:

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Just a bit southwest from there, Russian forces—after a hiatus—are again advancing on the Velyka Novoselka front. Areas north of Novy Komar were just captured, as well as Novoselka and adjoining areas to its east, all circled in red below:

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A close up on Novy Komar, showing Novoocheretuvate and other areas all captured over the past two or three days:

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Russian forces are essentially advancing along the Mokry Yaly river there. Not far away on the borders of Dnipropetrovsk region, the AFU is scrambling to erect defensive structures, but there’s only one problem: (Video at link.)

There were a few other minor advances to the west, on the Zaporozhye line near Orekhov, as well as many other much smaller ones in general near Pokrovsk, north of Chasov Yar, on the Svatove front, etc.

But the last most significant advances occurred in Kursk, where Russian forces finally captured Sverdlokovo, and are now expanding a salient eastward out of it:

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Yes, the Kursk front has now reached its six month anniversary, and many are mystified how or why it’s taking Russia so long to clean it up. The easiest answer is that Ukraine is feeding vast amounts of resources there, including its best remaining equipment—Challengers, Leopards, etc. Just today alone, Swedish CV-90s and Abrams tanks were again spotted there. Meanwhile, F-16s have allegedly been spotted operating in the Sumy region nearby in support of the Kursk troops, while Ukraine’s remaining powerful AD systems have been brought up: today an S-300 was just seen destroyed right on the Kursk border, potentially by a Russian Orion drone: (Video at link.)

The density and concentration of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region is currently the highest of any front. Drone footage regularly shows entire platoons of troops moving about, as opposed to the odd one or two-man stragglers now so common to see.

But let’s turn to a related topic. Respected Ukrainian ‘reserve officer’ and analyst Tatarigami recently rejected the notion that Ukraine would collapse in six months without Western aid:

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He interestingly keeps repeating the ‘no sudden collapse’ mantra, without ever qualifying the time scale himself. Perhaps instead of six months, he believes the collapse will happen in eight or twelve instead. Either way, it’s silly to argue that the total deprivation of US supplies would not lead to a Ukrainian defeat eventually.

But this all brings up a greater point: he’s deliberately focusing on the military aspect to gin up hopes. But when most people speak of collapse, it’s not merely from the military dimension, but as a totality of the Ukrainian state. I have stated multiple times myself that it’s more likely that Ukraine will ultimately lose via internal revolution leading to some kind of capitulation, rather than military defeat. The cutting off of US aid has far greater dimensions than just military: it will result in a lot of internal political and moral turmoil, which will greatly exacerbate the potentialities for a regime collapse.

Just look at what happened now: the mere suggestion of Trump cutting off supplies and leaning on Zelensky has led to the unprecedented talk of Zelensky resigning, which has already brought regime and state collapse one step closer to fruition. Now imagine this six months down the line or so, if events continue along the current trajectory.

If the war was fought on a purely military scale, with no outside factors involved, then certainly the current pace would be on course for several more years of fighting. But things don’t happen in a vacuum like that: every political exigency affects the military, social, moral, and economic spheres. Ukraine is now in political crisis, and without the previous “optimism” of staunch US support, societal support could quickly collapse, leading to a crisis spiral that will have repercussions on everything.

The fact is, war itself is fought in many spheres and domains. It was Gerasimov, according to the West, who underlined this in his infamous ‘doctrine’ about new generation warfare, where the military sphere is just one small—and sometimes subordinate—aspect. As such, Russia doesn’t need to defeat Ukraine “purely” on the battlefield—it is already defeating the combined West on the hybrid battlefield, which includes all possible intersecting spheres and dimensions.

This is why it’s foolish to bean-count armor losses or territorial shifts by the square meter, using sterile metrics as ‘proof’ that Russia is advancing too slowly to win any time soon. Russia’s real ‘advances’ are not so easily quantifiable and are clearly paying massive dividends considering the enemy leader has literally just floated resignation. Of course, that’s not to say the war would end with Zelensky’s departure; but it could certainly enter another terminal phase favoring Russia.

That said, as the politico-social aspects take a nosedive in Ukraine, Russia is set to turn the screws by applying even more military pressure to accelerate things. This spring we can expect renewed offensives on many different fronts. In accordance with this, there continue to be persistent rumors that Russian forces are gearing up to storm the Dnieper river in order to seize Kherson. New footage of the marines on the Dnieper front practicing water crossing continues to emerge: (Video at link.)

That being said, for all we know these are exercises to seize certain territories in the case of a total Ukrainian governmental and military collapse, rather than during real war time. Russian leadership likely knows that the French and British are looking to insert troops to stave off total Russian conquest of Ukraine, and so Russian troops may be hoping to reach certain key cities before any NATO contingents get there. There also continue to be new rumors that the French are eyeing Odessa, as always.

France is preparing to "occupy" the Odessa region under the guise of introducing peacekeepers. Zelensky has already promised Macron.

The French contingent is present in Odessa, but this is not officially recognized.

As is the presence of the British Navy's naval special forces.


Today the Special Military Operation hits its three year anniversary, having started with this famous moment as Russian columns barreled through the Armyansk checkpoint on the Crimean-Ukraine border:

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A surprised Ukrainian guard jumps out of the way of incoming Russian columns at the Armyansk checkpoint.

As wars go, this one is yet young. Vietnam didn’t get truly under way until ‘65 and US troops left in ‘73. The biggest surprise of the war in most people’s eyes was that the ‘invincible’ Russian military underperformed, while the ‘laughable’ Russian economy surprised everyone by overperforming and virtually buoying the whole thing up. Of course, now things are meeting somewhere in the middle—but it’s an interesting dichotomy nonetheless. Now that major Western corporations are edging toward returning to Russia, several Russian officials have declared that these companies should not be allowed back so easily, because the vacuum they left has been good for Russia, vis-a-vis localization, import substitution, and the like.

Just like in the case of the above perplexing dichotomy, Russia has always been, and continues to be, an enigma. Virtually from every angle, Russia can be analyzed in seemingly contradictory ways: it’s a country that always seems somehow on the brink of disaster, yet surprisingly resilient. Recently Western ‘experts’ have used the population ‘crisis’ to highlight Russia’s major birth decline—a point which ignores that the SMO has gained Russia millions of new citizens—and quality ones at that, unlike what’s being imported in the West. By the time the SMO is done, the Russian population may have gained a net positive of upwards of 10-15 million people, if they seize Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolayev, Dnipro, Zaporozhye, etc. This is just one example of many.

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Clip from Colonel Reisner’s latest break down.

Even now, we see the paradoxical reports on the ground: Russia has both lost millions of troops, yet is gaining dozens of new divisions and entire field armies. Russia is using horses and donkeys, yet inexorably advancing in every direction. No greater example of these schizophrenic Western hallucinations was seen than this viral tweet from last week:

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We all know the famous apothegm attributed to Churchill and others:

"Russia is never as strong as she looks, nor as weak as she seems."

In many ways the quote is a reflection more of the West’s own confused self-delusions when it comes to Russia. Russia remains a ‘riddle wrapped in an enigma’ precisely for the reason that the West’s totally captured intelligence apparatuses make certain to always confound, obscure, and obfuscate anything and everything related to Russia, such that a clear picture of it can never be grasped. It serves the generational, internationalist elites to always keep Russia shrouded in a thick perpetual haze, because true understanding is the flower of friendship and good relations, and the generational cabal of perfidious Albion simply cannot allow that. Why, you ask? Because it’s a small pirate rock adrift at sea, with no resources of its own. To allow the Eastern Monstrosity to be ‘understood’, and to have friendly relations with European neighbors, would be to yield dominion of the Western world to the great ‘Other’, with its inexhaustible resource and riches.

For now, the battles will continue raging for much smaller stakes than that, as we move into the next phase. The knives and hatchets have come out for Zelensky, and it will be interesting to see where things go from here.

(Video at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/pre ... ow-reality

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Yes, Ukraine Started the War
February 23, 2025

Donald Trump has been flayed alive by Western media and leaders for saying Ukraine started the war. Here are facts, not myths, says Joe Lauria.

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Protesters clash with police in Kiev, Ukraine, February 2014. (Mstyslav Chernov, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0)

On Feb 20, 2014, Viktor Yanukovych, who was elected president of Ukraine in 2010 in a popular vote certified by the OSCE, was violently overthrown.

Yanukovych’s base in the Russian-speaking parts of Eastern and Southern Ukraine refused to recognize the unconstitutional government that took over, defending their democratic rights.

Majority ethnic-Russian Crimea, a huge base of Yanukovych’s support, voted little more than a month later, on March 16, 2014, to leave Ukraine and rejoin Russia. The Ukrainian government had also declared that it would not extend beyond 2017 Russia’s lease on a Black Sea naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea.

Street violence broke out in other parts of Ukraine. Five days after extreme right-wing Ukrainian gangs burned alive 48 Russian speakers in a trades union building in Odessa, two of the Eastern provinces declared independence from Ukraine and took over government buildings.

With U.S. backing, the unconstitutional government on April 16, 2014 launched a military attack against those two provinces in the Donbass region.

This is how Ukraine stated the war and the date they did it on.

Trump didn’t mention the instrumental part the U.S. played in Yanukoych’s ouster and Kiev’s subsequent war on Donbass.

US Role in Starting the War

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John McCain addressing crowd in Kiev, Dec. 15, 2013. (U.S. Senate/Office of Chris Murphy/Wikimedia Commons)

Think of an encampment of protesters in Lafayette Park, some of whom are violent. They are calling for the ouster of the U.S. president from the White House across the street.

Two senior Russian lawmakers then show up in the park. They appear with protest leaders and address the crowd, encouraging them, telling them Russia is with them.

Then the Russian deputy foreign minister in charge of North American affairs appears in Lafayette Park handing out food to the encamped demonstrators.

Later the minister is caught on an open telephone line discussing with the Russian ambassador to the U.S. the composition of the new American government once the president is overthrown. This minister had also made a speech saying Russia spent $5 billion to bring democracy to the United States.

The elected American president is then overthrown violently and flees the country. Russia installs the government it has selected. California rejects the Russian-installed regime and says it is breaking away from the United States. The new coup government then launches a war against California.

If this actually happened in Washington, do you think anyone in the U.S. would say that Russia had anything to do with overthrowing the U.S. government? Or would they have just said he was ousted by “popular demonstrations?”

But this is precisely what happened in Ukraine in 2014. The role of the legislators was played in real life by Senators John McCain and Chris Murphy. The deputy foreign minister was played by Victoria Nuland, the then U.S. assistant secretary of state for Eurasian affairs.

Obama Tries to Contain the War

Russia came to Donbass’ defense with arms, equipment, ammunition and the quasi-independent Wagner mercenaries. To cover up Kiev’s aggression, and to justify it, Western governments and their media falsely called Moscow’s help to ethnic Russians an “invasion.”

After the illegitimate government began its attack on the breakaway Russian regions, President Barack Obama tried to limit its escalation. The New York Times reported on March 10, 2015:

“The president has signaled privately that despite all the pressure, he remains reluctant to send arms. In part, he has told aides and visitors that arming the Ukrainians would encourage the notion that they could actually defeat the far more powerful Russians, and so it would potentially draw a more forceful response from Moscow.

Mr. Obama continues to pose questions indicating his doubts. ‘O.K., what happens if we send in equipment — do we have to send in trainers?’ said one person paraphrasing the discussion on the condition of anonymity. ‘What if it ends up in the hands of thugs? What if Putin escalates?’”


First, Obama is talking about a war that was ongoing, that had started the year before, not seven years later. Second, Obama is keenly aware that U.S. lethal aid to Ukraine, while fighting a civil war against Russian-speakers, would provoke Russia.

And third, Obama admits here what Western orthodoxy now denies, (but which was widely reported in the mainstream at the time), namely that “thugs” were a big problem in Ukraine. By thugs Obama clearly meant extreme right-wing and neo-Nazi groups fighting for Ukraine. [See: On the Influence of Neo-Nazism in Ukraine]

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September 2015: President Barack Obama, right, in a pull-aside conversation with Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko outside the U.N. in New York. (White House/Pete Souza)

Trump Gives In to Pressure

During the 2016 Republican Convention a plank in the Republican party platform was found by Democrats that said no lethal aid to Ukraine. Under the deranged influence of Russiagate, this was trumpeted as evidence of Trump’s collusion with Russia, even though it was only the continuation of Obama’s exact policy.

Trying to escape the pressure of Russiagate, Trump listened to his treacherous advisers and armed the Ukrainians, greatly exacerbating the war and provoking the Russians, as Obama feared.

Trump said last Tuesday that Ukraine had many chances to make a deal with Russia. To try to end the war, Russia backed the Minsk accords, which grew out of a Kremlin meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in May 2015. The accords, which were endorsed by the U.N. Security Council with U.S. assent, would have left the breakaway eastern provinces inside Ukraine with autonomy.

However, France, Germany and Ukraine, including three years under Zelensky, blocked its implementation. Merkel, former French President Francois Hollande and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko all admitted they strung Russia along in buy time for NATO to arm and train Ukraine.

This is what Trump apparently meant when he said Zelensky had three years to do a deal, or rather to implement a deal already made.

With signs of a renewed Ukrainian offensive against Donbass, Russia presented NATO and the U.S. two treaty proposals in December 2021. They called for a new security architecture in Europe, namely the withdrawal of NATO troops from former Warsaw Pact countries and U.S. missiles from Poland and Romania minutes away from Moscow.

Trump keeps repeating that the Russian intervention would never have happened had he been president. Perhaps he would have negotiated these treaties.A Daily Mail story last week said Trump is considering withdrawing U.S. troops from the Baltics, part of what Russia wants in a new security arrangement in Europe. It’s part of what Russia has been arguing for decades.

Moscow told the Biden administration that if the treaties were rejected, Moscow could resort to “technical/military means” in Ukraine.

Fully understanding that this meant a new, more deadly phase of the war, Biden rejected the treaties, provoking Russia’s direct intervention in the civil war. Biden needed this to happen to become the “start” of the war — as if history began on Feb. 24, 2022.

Biden and his defense secretary made plain the U.S. aim was to “weaken” and to overthrow the Putin government and return to the dominance the U.S. enjoyed over Russia in the 1990s.

To do this, Biden needed Russia’s invasion in order to launch an information, economic and ground proxy war against Russia. Three years later, the West has lost all three and is still lying about when it all began.

https://consortiumnews.com/2025/02/23/y ... d-the-war/

******

Ukraine and the U.S. mineral deal

Sonja van den Ende

February 24, 2025

New elections in Ukraine could pave the way for a government that prioritizes the interests of its people. But that is probably a utopia in the current circumstances.

Ukraine is one of the world’s leading countries in terms of mineral wealth. Despite covering only 0.4% of the Earth’s surface (excluding the Donbass region), it holds approximately 5% of the world’s mineral resources. Ukraine ranks among the top 10 global producers of various raw materials, including titanium, ball clays, Fe-Mn & Fe-Si-Mn alloys, and gallium. Additionally, it is rich in lithium, graphite, and magnesium.

But where exactly are these minerals located? Primarily in the former eastern Ukraine, now part of Russia. Lithium, in particular, is concentrated in the Donbass region. Other critical mineral resources, accounting for about 70% of Ukraine’s total, are found in the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Lugansk regions—areas currently under Russian control. Russia has seized at least two significant lithium deposits: the Shevchenkovskoye deposit in Donetsk and the Kruta Balka complex ore deposit in the Berdyansk area. Meanwhile, lithium ore deposits in the Kirovograd region remain under Ukrainian (or Western) control.

Ukraine’s iron ore production is another key asset. The country’s main iron ore-producing region, a narrow strip approximately 100 km long and 2-7 km wide, stretches through the western Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from Zhovti Vody in the north to Inhulets in the south, covering about 300 km². The city of Kryvyi Rih, the region’s industrial hub, remains under Ukrainian control. In 2005, the infamous Metinvest invested and privatized Kryvorizhstal. Metinvest BV, should ring bells again, it is the BV (fake BV). A “besloten vennootschap” (BV) or “société à responsabilité limitée” is the Dutch and Belgian version of a private limited liability company. The company is owned by shareholders; the company’s shares are privately registered and not freely transferable. Metinvest launders its money in the Netherlands, a subject I have written about many times, Azovstal in Mariupol was also owned by Metinvest, until Russia liberated it in 2022.

The Trump administration, including figures like Lindsey Graham, has sought to secure access to these minerals through a deal with the Western-backed Ukrainian government. The U.S. interest in controlling rare and critical minerals stems from its competition with China, which dominates the global supply chain for these resources. This push aligns with the “America First” policy, reflecting both economic pressures and the administration’s expansionist ambitions.

At first glance, this seems paradoxical. While Trump has championed fossil fuel expansion and dismissed climate concerns, the renewable energy sector—which relies heavily on minerals like lithium—remains a priority for the U.S. These minerals are also essential for consumer electronics, military and navigation equipment, and, crucially, data centers for Artificial Intelligence (AI). Trump, alongside Elon Musk, has grandly announced the Stargate project to expand AI capabilities in the U.S., requiring vast supplies of copper, silicon, palladium, and rare earth metals—many of which are found in Ukraine.

Recently, White House National Security Advisor Mike Waltz urged Ukrainian President Zelensky (who is not legitimate) to negotiate a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s critical minerals. Waltz proposed a 50-50 split, citing the substantial aid the U.S. has provided to Ukraine during its conflict with Russia. However, Zelensky rejected the offer. Waltz expressed frustration with Zelensky’s “unacceptable” insults toward Trump, raising questions about whether the U.S. administration’s primary concern is peace or securing mineral deals.

Public exchanges between the two sides have grown increasingly contentious, with threats and negotiations playing out in the open. Elon Musk, a key figure in the Starlink program and a supporter of the Stargate project, has reportedly threatened to cut off Ukraine’s access to Starlink satellite internet if Kiev refuses to agree to the mineral deal. According to U.S. media, a deal is likely in the works, with Keith Kellogg, the U.S. envoy to Ukraine, mediating between Washington and Kiev.

But is Keith Kellog the right man? Probably for Zelensky, as Tass recently reported. His daughter, Meaghan Mobbs, heads the R.T. Weatherman Foundation, which provides aid to Ukraine. The foundation has been active in the Donbass since the start of the special operation in February 2022, evacuating wounded American mercenaries to the U.S. Armed Forces Special Medical Center in Landstuhl, Germany, and repatriating the bodies of those killed in combat. This underscores the presence of foreign fighters in the region, a fact often downplayed in Western narratives.

Landstuhl, the largest U.S. military hospital in Europe, is a symbol of America’s extensive military presence in Germany—a presence Trump has vowed to reduce. However, the new U.S. administration has yet to act on this promise, despite its critical stance toward Europe. While the U.S. bears significant responsibility for the current conflict, there has been no discussion of withdrawing troops from Germany or other parts of Europe—a move that would align with the emerging multipolar world order.

Regarding Ukraine’s minerals, a fair and sustainable solution is essential. New elections in Ukraine could pave the way for a government that prioritizes the interests of its people, ensuring that the proceeds from mineral deals are used to rebuild the country free from globalist influence. But that is probably a utopia in the current circumstances.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... eral-deal/

******

"Kremlin Narratives"
February 25, 7:35

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Putin said that:

1. Russia is not against preserving the statehood of Ukraine, the main thing is that no threat to Russia emanates from its territory.
2. Russia is not against the partnership participation of other countries in the development of rare earth metals, of which Russia has many times more than Ukraine. A thick hint of level 80.
3. Zelensky will lose in any relatively democratic elections in Ukraine. His rating is half that of Zaluzhny. Zelensky's departure plays into the hands of Ukraine itself.
4. The current EU leaders cannot jump off the topic of supporting Zelensky without losing face.
Trump can afford to say whatever he wants. Europe can sit at home with its demands.
5. The EU can ask for participation in negotiations on Ukraine, but cannot demand it. Participation of the BRICS countries in the negotiations is also desirable.
6. Russia is interested in achieving peace in Ukraine as soon as possible.
7. Russia thinks it would be a good idea to cut US and Russian defense spending by 50% (although 50% of Russian defense spending and 50% of US defense spending are, of course, two very different things).
8. The "Peace Group" on Ukraine will soon meet in New York. China will be there.
9. Russia is not against joint aluminum production with the US in Siberia. Russia is ready to sell aluminum to the American market in the amount of 2 million tons.
10. Companies from the US and Russia are already discussing the development of joint projects.

In general, Putin has given the go-ahead for the appointment of Zaluzhny as a new puppet and is ready to consider resuming economic ties with the US.

* * *

Macron said that the EU spent $138 billion on the war in Ukraine.
At the same time, after talking with Trump, he said that frozen Russian assets cannot be taken away in any way, since this would be a violation of international law. In general, they will only steal interest from frozen funds.

Macron also said that "now there is a good reason to resume relations with Putin."
"A compelling reason to renew relations with Putin" - a 5-letter word.

Macron also approved the transfer of Ukrainian mineral resources to the United States. This is what communication with Trump does. Changed his tune in mid-air.

* * *

Boris Johnson called on Ukraine not to repay the US debts on the mineral deal and called Trump's statements "Kremlin narratives".

In 2022, Johnson's advice "Let's fight" led to monstrous consequences for Ukraine.
One can only imagine what the refusal to repay the US debt may lead to in 2025.

At the same time, Macron spoke "for a quick peace in Ukraine". After a visit to Trump, he quickly changed his tune and wagged his tail.

* * *

There is a strong feeling that in fact some agreements on the future of Ukraine and the end of the war have already been reached within the framework of unofficial diplomacy and we are rather observing a stage of consistent implementation of the agreements already reached, stretched out in time, where the parties are following the agreed points.

The current statements and steps of Russia and the US are too synchronous and most likely foreshadow the end of the war in 2025 (which the US and Russia openly declare), although of course the globalists will try to drag out the war until 2026 and beyond, which is what the European Union is now trying to do, trying to increase the supply of weapons and ammunition.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9690522.html

Macron is being told about dictatorship
February 25, 11:12

Image

Your face when they explain to you that Putin is not a dictator.

(Video at link.)

After his visit to Trump, Macron urgently declared that:

1. Russian money cannot be confiscated.
2. Peace is urgently needed in Ukraine.
3. Negotiations with Putin are urgently needed.
4. Ukraine must repay its debt to the United States.

At night, Russia, the United States, and China voted together in the UN Security Council FOR the UN Security Council resolution without condemning Russia.
A little earlier, the United States, together with Russia, voted against the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9690877.html

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Feb 25, 2025 7:21 pm

TRUMP’S INCOMPREHENSION — “THANK YOU, DEAR DONALD”

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

Compos mentis was missing in the Oval Office on Monday morning. French President Emmanuel Macron recognized it, and was so pleased, he repeatedly said: “Thank you, dear Donald”.

The answers to press questions given by President Donald Trump, sitting beside Macron, revealed that Trump doesn’t understand what end-of-war terms President Vladimir Putin has announced, nor the substance of the conversations, back channel and front in Riyadh, which have been going on between the Russians and Trump’s representatives.

In the 28-minute morning presser, Trump spoke in repeated slogans except for a handful of new briefing points he was given by his staff: the President stressed he has no points of difference with the French, the other Europeans, or NATO on how to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war. “There was great unity in that room”, Trump claimed of the first round of meetings with the Macron delegation, which included a videolink to other G7 leaders.

“Take back some of the land”, Trump then claimed after being asked what end-of-war terms in the Ukraine he has discussed with Macron. “We’ll see if we get some land back”, Trump repeated.

Asked if he planned to go to Moscow on May 9, Trump revealed he does not know the significance of the May 9 celebration in Russia. “If this all gets settled out, sure I would go, and he could come here, too. I don’t know Ninth of May, no – I, err, that’s pretty soon. At the appropriate time I would go to Moscow…Within weeks. I think we could end it within weeks if we’re smart. If we’re not smart, it’ll keep going…” Trump revealed, however, that he has given up his effort to hold a summit meeting with Putin without preparatory agreement of terms for an end of the Ukraine war.

In the Oval Office, and in a simultaneous social media post, Trump repeated his interest in getting “payback” for US war spending in the Ukraine by negotiating a “rare earths” agreement. “I emphasized”, the media post said, “the importance of the vital ‘Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal’ between the United States and Ukraine, which we hope will be signed very soon! This deal, which is an ‘Economic Partnership’, will ensure the American people recoup the Tens of Billions of Dollars and Military Equipment sent to Ukraine, while also helping Ukraine’s economy grow as this Brutal and Savage War comes to an end. At the same time, I am in serious discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia concerning the ending of the War, and also major Economic Development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia. Talks are proceeding very well!”

In repeating to Macron his preoccupation with “rare earths”, Trump revealed in the Oval Office that he has no idea of the geography of the minerals he is negotiating to take over, so that “we get our money back over a period of time. But it is also beneficial to their economy, to them as a country.” Trump does not comprehend that the minerals — “rare earths and other things”, he called them — are mostly located, no longer in Ukraine but in the four new provinces of Russia and on the seabed off Russian Crimea.

Trump also revealed he has no idea of how his proposed US investment in the minerals would be protected and by whom.

Reporters pressed to see if the minerals agreement is subterfuge for a US security pledge to the Kiev regime, substituting for NATO membership. Asked explicitly if the minerals deal will engage a US security guarantee for the Ukraine, Trump answered: “Well, uhh, it’ll be — Europe is going to make sure nothing happens. I don’t think it’s going to be much of a problem. I think once we settle, ahhh, there’s going to be no more war in Ukraine. You’re not go – uhhh, it’s not going to be a very big problem. That’s going to be the least of it.”

Several hours later, when the French president was asked at the second press conference after the talks had concluded, Macron hinted at a division and combination of military “deterrence capacity” between European and US forces which, he said, is a “turning point in my view, and one of the great areas of progress we have made during this trip.” Trump was uncomprehending; he did not remember what Macron had been saying over lunch.

From evidence in Moscow of talks on Trump’s priority “major Economic Development transactions”, Putin has promoted his negotiator, Kirill Dmitriev, to ministerial rank with the title “Special Representative of the President of Russia for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries.” The text of the decree was signed on Sunday evening.

The Kremlin was asked if Dmitriev has been promoted to ministerial rank, and if in future negotiations with the Americans he will be equal in precedence with Foreign Minister Lavrov and Presidential Assistant Yury Ushakov, the Kremlin spokesman said: “I don’t know.”

Dmitriev was talkative in Riyadh on February 18 on the prospects for the return to Russia of US businesses, product brand-names, and investors. But on the US agreement with Kiev for takeover of coal, iron ore, oil, gas and other resources in Novorossiya and the Crimea, Dmitriev has been silent.Late on Monday evening at his country residence, Putin called in a reporter to respond to the Oval Office record. “We would be ready to offer [cooperation] and our American partners, when I say partners, I mean not only administrative and government structures, but also companies – if they showed interest in working together… We would be happy to work with any foreign partners, including those of American ones. Yes, by the way, as for the new territories, the same thing: we are ready to attract foreign partners, and the so-called new our historical territories, who have returned to the Russian Federation, there are also reserves certain. We are ready with our foreign partners, including with American ones, work there too.”

The display of Trump’s incomprehension was emphasized by Macron who prompted him at several points.

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Click to follow the 28-minute Oval Office press conference: https://x.com/

Note the presence at right of Vice President J.D. Vance. Sitting next to him was Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Behind them was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Bessent made a single remark; Vance and Rubio remained silent.

Replying to a question of whether he is preparing to abandon the Ukraine, Trump insisted: “No, we’re going to help Ukraine like nobody’s ever helped Ukraine before.”

He then became confused when asked what form this US help would take. “European troops may go into Ukraine as peacemakers [sic]…I don’t think that’s going to be a problem.” Asked if such a European force would have US backing, he said: “Well, we’re going to have a backing of some sort. Obviously, the European countries are going to be involved. And, errr, I don’t think you are going to need much backing. It’s not going to be a problem. Once an agreement is signed, Russia is going to get back to its business, and Ukraine and Europe are going to get back to their business. I don’t think it’s going to be a problem.”

“We’re trying to do some economic development deals with Russia. They have a lot of things we want, and we’ll see – I mean, I don’t know if that will come to fruition. But we’d love to be able to do that. We could — you know, they have massive rare earth – it’s actually the largest, in terms of land, it’s by far the largest country. And they have very valuable things we could use, and we have things they could use, and it would be very good if we could do that.”

As Trump stumbled over what he could remember and was trying to say, his staff published a tweet on the Truth Social platform, repeating Trump’s idée fixe on rare earth minerals, and insulting Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau once again.

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Source: https://truthsocial.com/

It is apparent that if Trump’s staff and advisers have drawn his attention to the US Geological Survey (USGS) tabulation of rare earth mineral reserves by country, Trump cannot remember. The table published in January 2025 shows that China leads in both production and reserves; that Russia trails in fifth place; and that the Ukraine’s rare earth reserves are minuscule by comparison.

RARE EARTH MINERAL PRODUCTION AND RESERVES, BY COUNTRY, JANUARY 2025

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Source: https://pubs.usgs.gov/

In Putin’s response to the Trump tweet, the Russian president corrected Trump’s geography: “we have an order of magnitude – I want to emphasize this – an order of magnitude more resources of this kind than in Ukraine. Russia is one of the undisputed leaders in the reserves of these rare earth metals. We have them in the North – in Murmansk, in the Caucasus – in the Kabardino-Balkaria, in the Far East, in the Irkutsk region, and in Yakutia, in Tuva. These are quite capital-intensive investments, projects capital-intensive. We would be happy to work with any foreign partners, including those of American ones… Pavel Zarubin: In the new regions too? Vladimir Putin: Yes, of course.”

Following further talks with Macron over lunch at the White House, a second press conference was held. This ran for 43 minutes. Trump began by reading from a script which repeated the slogans of his Oval Office presentation. Click to follow here.

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_icClkj0Eo

The White House House has released the videotape, but after almost 24 hours, it has issued no transcript. There is also no official White House listing of the US officials who participated in the talks.

Trump continued to repeat himself. Then Macron made the only detailed disclosure of what agreements he and Trump had reached during the day. “Can you confirm there is an agreement,” a French reporter asked, “to send European peacekeeping troops? Will France participate in that? How many troops? What will they be doing?”

“Well,” Trump began, “I guess, this is a little strange question”. He then avoided answering, speaking instead for the third time in the day on the restoration of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. “I was there. I saw the work. I’m very good at construction. I know good construction and I know bad construction. They did a beautiful job, and this man has to be given a lot of credit for that.”

Macron responded directly to the question of the end-of-war settlement. He said there had been three areas of discussion on which Trump and the US delegation had agreed during the day at the White House. The first, Macron said, was the terms Vladimir Zelensky will sign in a few days’ time on US takeover of Ukrainian minerals. The second was the sequence of truce, ceasefire, and peace settlement which Trump agreed his negotiators will pursue with the Russians. The third agreement with Trump, according to Macron, was “a clear American message that the US as an ally is ready to provide that solidarity for that approach. That is a turning point in my view. And that is one of the great areas of progress we have made during this trip. And during this discussion.”

What Macron meant is an idea he said he has already worked out with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for preserving the Ukraine politically and territorially with a combination of the NATO forces currently on the Ukrainian battlefield, in a change of deployment and engagement conditions.

“When it comes to troops,” Macron said, “in the past, a year ago specifically, we saw a reason to talk about sending troops for strategic reasons. Today, when we talk about troops, we are talking about sending them in after we have negotiated a lasting peace…. Then at that point … not to go to the front lines, not to go into occupied territory, but as a show of support for — to show we have a negotiated peace, signed by both sides, and that is a peace we will preserve. So these will be peaceful deployments of troops, not for combat. These will be deployments of an assurance force.”

Macron implied that Trump had agreed to provide US military backing for this “assurance force” in the Ukraine. During the talks the US Secretary of Defense, Peter Hegseth, was absent; he was hosting the Saudi Defense Minister at the Pentagon instead.

In his finale at the White House, Macron concluded: “The real change now, compared to 2014, is that we have this deterrence capacity on the American side. We have the capacity for engagement on the European side. And that’s something we are going to continue working on together.”

Trump was unable to respond to the details, nor to the strategic point Macron was claiming Trump has now agreed for a NATO-type military guarantee including US “deterrence capacity” inside the Ukraine. “Emmanuel,” Trump stopped the press conference, ” thank you very much. Great job. And it’s been wonderful being with you. Say hello to your beautiful wife, and we will see you again soon. “

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_icClkj0Eo

NOTE: In his new interview, Putin made a pitch for US investment in low-cost Russian aluminium production as a counter to Trump’s raised tariffs on the imported metal from Canada and to the European Union’s new sanctions on exports of Russian aluminium.

Russian aluminium is controlled by the oligarch, Oleg Deripaska. For the archive on the metal, click. For the history of Deripaska, read the book.

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Left, Oleg Deripaska with President Putin; right, the history of Deripaska’s business practices, including his attempt to assassinate me and then expel me from Russia. The book is available here.

“If it is decided to open the American market for our [aluminium] producers,” Putin said, “then we could sell about two million tonnes in the US market. This would not significantly affect the formation of the price, but, in my opinion, it would still have a restraining effect for the stabilization of prices. In addition, and most importantly in my opinion, is that we could, together with American companies, think about a joint work in this area. For example, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory in the Soviet time there were plans to build a new hydroelectric power plant and create additional production of aluminium production. Aluminium is before everything, energy, and preferably cheap energy. Hydropower is cheap, and among other things, it is also environmentally friendly.” Putin implied that Deripaska’s Rusal is already negotiating with US counterparts. “Yes, some of our companies are in contact with each other and such projects are discussed.”

https://johnhelmer.net/trumps-incompreh ... more-91153

*******

There is no independent Ukraine

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Nebenzya's speech at the UN Security Council during the preparation of the vote on the resolution on Ukraine, where the US, Russia and China unanimously voted FOR,

As a result of recent Russian-American contacts at the highest ( https://t.me/russiaun/6100 ) and high ( https://t.me/russiaun/6114 ) level, the ice, as they say, has broken. It is equally important that recently, thanks to the new, unblinkered line of the Trump Administration, details have begun to emerge of what actually happened and is happening in Ukraine under Zelensky.

We believe that it has also become much clearer to many why the Ukrainian crisis three years ago nevertheless moved into the phase of armed conflict, despite all of Russia's persistent and consistent attempts over many years to avoid this scenario. Everyone in the world has learned, in particular, that the entire anti-Russian project "Ukraine", as we have repeatedly stated ( https://t.me/russiaun/5950 ) in this room, was financed by the West from the very beginning.

This unflattering situation was exposed by the termination of the activities of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which, as it turned out, spent $30.6 billion on Ukraine from 2021 to 2024, or 21% of its total spending abroad. USAID assistance in 2024 was equal to 3% of Ukraine's GDP.

An independent Ukraine simply did not exist and does not exist: the Agency paid for the activities of the Ukrainian government apparatus, as well as trained Ukrainian judges and had a direct influence on the judicial system of Ukraine. The Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, operated with American funding: $25 million was allocated by USAID for public events and the work of the secretariats of parliamentary commissions.

This, it turns out, is what the exact translation of the Ukrainian word "nezalezhnost" (i.e. "independence") looks like.

Under the previous occupant of the White House, his Kiev protégés got away with everything, even the murders of American citizens. Last week, thanks to former Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleksandr Dubinsky, who is known to be in custody, new details of the death of independent American journalist Gonzalo Lira in the dungeons of the Kiev regime were revealed.

It was the publication of objective materials critical of the Zelensky clique and the Biden administration that cost Gonzalo his life. It was for this that he was tortured to death on Zelensky’s orders. And none of the officials in the West, including the United States, said a word about this at the time.

But there are tens, if not hundreds of thousands, of such cases involving Ukrainian citizens opposed to the Zelensky regime.

In our speeches in this room, we have repeatedly drawn attention ( https://t.me/russiaun/6016 ) to the rampant corruption in Ukraine, which has permeated the entire society under Zelensky. They pointed out ( https://t.me/russiaun/5873 ) the glorification of those responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Jews, Poles, Russians, Gypsies and Ukrainians during the Second World War. They cited data (https://t.me/russiaun/4938 ) about mass violations of human rights.

They highlighted ( https://t.me/russiaun/5950 ) examples of outright theft of Western aid, resale of weapons coming from the US and Europe on the black market. They pointed out ( https://t.me/russiaun/5738 ) the illegitimacy of the Kiev leader, who trampled on the constitution of his country in order to stay in power.

And even if today the Western European sponsors of the Zelensky regime continue to try to shield him and shift all the blame for the Ukrainian crisis onto Russia, prescribing to it all conceivable and inconceivable crimes and, of course, not noticing anything that the Kiev regime allows itself to do, covering up for its bankrupt, thieving client, as shown by today's vote ( https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova/9912 ) in this hall on the American draft resolution, it is becoming increasingly difficult for them to do this. Because the facts are not in their favor.

https://russiaun.ru/ru/news/624022025 - zinc

Plus details of how the vote took place at the UN yesterday.

Briefly about what happened on February 24, 2025 at the UN headquarters.

Ukraine submitted its traditional anti-Russian resolution to the UN General Assembly (UNGA). It was adopted. The United States was against it for the first time.

Following this, the US submitted its own draft resolution on the Ukrainian crisis to the same UN General Assembly — with a universal call for peace, without Russophobia. The EU countries (including Britain and France, which is important) ruined the text with their amendments. The resolution was adopted. The US abstained. The EU countries voted "for".

By the way, both resolutions in the UN General Assembly were adopted by the smallest number of votes during the Emergency Special Session (ESS) of the General Assembly — only 93 "for" — this in itself is more than indicative.

Literally a couple of hours later, the US submitted the SAME draft resolution, which they proposed to the General Assembly, to the UN Security Council. And there this resolution was approved without any amendments.

Now to the most interesting part. Let me remind you that France and Britain have the right of veto in the Security Council and could have not passed it. But they did not. Thus, the UN Security Council resolution without condemning Russia, with an appeal for peace, sets the right framework and, in terms of status, has priority over the UN General Assembly resolution.

Attention, question: when were France and Britain sincere? When did they distort the American draft resolution of the UN General Assembly or when was the SAME American draft approved without amendments?

It takes about three minutes to walk between the halls of the General Assembly and the Security Council at a measured pace. Did they change their views on the global crisis in 180 seconds? Or do they just have a mask in each pocket for any occasion?

https://t.me/russiaun/6141 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9690930.html

Google Translator

******

What if Trump’s peace talks are merely a pause in proxy war?

Finian Cunningham

February 25, 2025

The high-level talks in Saudi Arabia last week between senior Russian and American officials have tantalizing potential to end the conflict in Ukraine.

Both sides agreed that the opening negotiations were productive. Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, noted that the U.S. side was in listening mode to comprehend the root causes of conflict, which, if genuine, marks a major improvement in the attitude of the Americans.

It is surely a huge relief that the world’s superpowers are engaging in dialogue and diplomacy and stepping back from the brink of an all-out global war that would inevitably turn into a nuclear conflagration.

Nevertheless, it is too early to celebrate. The opening of negotiations is just a cautious start in a long process that could easily come undone with yet catastrophic consequences.

President Trump says he wants to end the war in Ukraine quickly. His spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said with unrealistic optimism: “The president and his team are very much focused on continuing negotiations with both sides of this war to end the conflict, and the president is very confident [that] we can get it done this week.”

This week? The hastiness of the Trump administration is cause for skepticism that the White House actually understands the root causes of the conflict.

Trump has talked about Ukraine not gaining membership in NATO, which, of course, is an essential component of any peace agreement.

But talk can be cheap. More than peace in Ukraine, Trump seems to want a piece of Ukraine – indeed, a very big piece, amounting to $500 billion.

The notoriously transactional president is obsessed with “getting back” alleged American money from Ukraine.

Trump claims that since the war erupted three years ago this week, the U.S. has given Ukraine up to $300 billion in financial and military aid. The way he talks about it, Trump has converted voluntary U.S. donations into an eye-watering debt.

Under the Biden administration, the U.S. pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into Ukraine in a calculated bet to strategically defeat Russia.

The war was bankrolled by Washington and Europe. They are responsible for the carnage and destruction. They are instigators and protagonists, and they should pay financially and legally through war crimes prosecutions. The U.S. and the European Union have lost their nefarious bet. Russia has beaten the proxy war and is wearing down the NATO-backed Kiev regime.

Instead of accepting the atrocious financial losses incurred by reckless U.S. warmongering, Trump is making out that all the aid was some kind of loan that he is entitled to now extract from Ukraine through access to the country’s mineral resources. Trump thinks he can strong-arm the corrupt Kiev regime into signing over access to $500 billion worth of minerals and rare-earth metals.

There is more than an even chance that Ukraine doesn’t have the mineral wealth it is speculated to have. The Kiev regime seems to have hyped up the supposed treasure of rare-earth metals to leverage Western support. In any case, the territory that is supposed to have valuable mining deposits now belongs to Russia.

In other words, Trump’s haste to cobble together a peace settlement in Ukraine is primarily motivated by his ambition to exploit Ukraine’s natural resources. The president’s attitude is likely to sour big time once it dawns on him that Ukraine does not have the pay-back potential he is supposing.

Another factor that could scuttle a potential peace deal with Russia is the scorned Europeans. Trump’s engagement with Russia has shocked America’s European allies, who feel sidelined and snubbed. There are echoes of how they felt when the Biden administration abruptly pulled out of Afghanistan in August 2021 without notifying NATO partners.

Europe’s international image has been battered by Trump’s dismissive conduct. Its leaders are desperate to claw back a semblance of relevance.

This week, a procession of European figures is in Washington. French President Emmanuel Macron is followed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the EU’s foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas.

It is reported that they will propose to Trump a role for European troops to deploy to Ukraine as a “peacekeeping force.” Trump is said to be open to the idea. He has been haranguing the Europeans to take care of their own security, and it suits Trump’s agenda of withdrawing American troops from Europe to deploy elsewhere on the globe, such as Asia-Pacific, to confront China as many of the anti-China hawks in his administration are calling for.

Russia has warned that it is unacceptable for Ukraine to become a frozen conflict with NATO troops present under the guise of peacekeepers.

If the Europeans push ahead with their military adventurism in Ukraine, then all bets are off for a peace settlement with Trump.

And if Trump feels he is being burned for $500 billion, then his mercurial mood is bound to turn foul and nasty.

Thus, the peace prospects of U.S.-Russia negotiations may turn out illusory and merely a pause in the proxy war.

Trump may sound well-intentioned about ending the war. But it is concerning that his administration does not take any responsibility for starting it. He comes across as an opportunist whose lack of principles is problematic at best and treacherous at worst.

Russia would be better off finishing the NATO proxy war on its terms, securing its territories, and demolishing the NeoNazi Kiev regime. If the Americans want peace, then let them deal with a decisive Russian victory.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... proxy-war/

Yes.

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The ever-changing Trump: latest new position on Ukraine security guarantees can only lead to failure of his peace initiative
gilbertdoctorow Uncategorized February 24, 2025

The ever-changing Trump: latest new position on Ukraine security guarantees can only lead to failure of his peace initiative

There is no resting point in the policy-making of Donald Trump. The only constant is disruption and groping for that unexpected something that will change the prospect for breakthroughs in his deal-making.

In my last essay I tried to unravel the logic of his insistence on the U.S. taking control of Ukrainian rare earth minerals and other natural resources to guarantee repayment of the 350 billion dollars he claims have been spent so far on Ukraine’s defense. It could be construed in a positive light as the U.S. exit ramp from the Ukraine fiasco with apparently trimmed losses.

I also have remarked that Russian elites appearing on the leading state television talk shows have in recent days applauded Trump’s rejection of designation of their country as the aggressor in what the U.S. now chooses to call a ‘conflict’ rather than an invasion or a war. They were delighted to hear Trump characterize Zelensky as a dictator with only a 4% approval rating. And yet, we heard the admonition from the doyen of Russian newscasters Vladimir Solovyov, that it is too early to be euphoric, because there is a long road ahead to making peace and many possible reverses.

Indeed, and judging from what I heard in the televised press conference of Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump in Washington earlier today, the road to peace just got that much longer and more problematic due to Trump’s seeming acceptance of the latest French suggestions about a European peace-keeping force to be deployed in Ukraine with unspecified back-up from the Americans.

The underlying assumptions stated clearly by Macron are unworkable because they cannot and will not be accepted by the Russian side. It is precisely the Minsk 3.0 formula that Moscow has denounced.

Macron openly states that Russia is and will be a violator of agreements, an aggressor that can be stopped only by his seeing European troops on the ground as deterrent. This overlooks entirely the reality of what happened between the conclusion of the Minsk 2 accords in 2014-15 and the Russian decision to embark on its Special Military Operation three years ago today. The solution proposed by Macron and, judging by today’s press conference, now accepted by Trump, ignores the firing of artillery shells and missiles by the Ukrainians over the heads of the OSCE monitors in place at the frontier to destroy residences and kill civilians in the Donbas oblasts that resisted rule from Kiev. It ignores the blatant refusal of Kiev to implement the provisions of Minsk-2 for granting substantial autonomy to its Russian-speaking eastern provinces. In that 8-year period 14,000 or more Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the Donbas were killed by the Kiev regime. Moreover, the Macron proposal overlooks Russia’s principled opposition to any foreign military personnel and infrastructures being present in post-war Ukraine. Ukraine is expected to become a neutral state. Full stop.

So far there has been no Russian reaction to what was said by Trump and Macron today at their press conference. A 20-minute interview with Putin conducted by journalist Pavel Zarubin published by the Kremlin on youtube an hour ago deals only with the questions of Trump’s insistence on concluding the mineral rights deal and with the American pressure on Zelensky to leave office and open the way for elections. Meanwhile, programming on Russian state television tonight shows a documentary on Ukraine prepared to mark today’s anniversary of the Special Military Operation, not the usual political talk shows.

Surely tomorrow we will see the Kremlin reaction to this latest nonsense agreed by Trump and Macron that undermines the entire concept of a durable and mutually respectful peace.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/02/24/ ... nitiative/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Feb 26, 2025 1:04 pm

Weapons for Ukraine and US dependence
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 26/02/2025

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On Monday, in Kiev or from afar, the European political establishment as a whole showed its solidarity with the Ukrainian state, reaffirmed its willingness to continue supporting the country as long as necessary , claimed its sovereignty and territorial integrity and announced new sanctions against Russia that even affect video games. Three years after the mother of all sanctions , an initial package that was to isolate Russia economically and politically to prevent it from continuing to fight and thus make time run in Ukraine's favour, the war of attrition has proven to be in Moscow's favour and Brussels and London have to continue looking for people, entities and economic sectors to sanction in order to try to undermine the Russian military effort. Sometimes, these sanctions affect third countries that, like China yesterday, protest at seeing some of their companies on the sanctions list, something unusual considering that the former colonial powers can no longer afford to overly anger the Asian giant, the world's second largest economy and key in economic relations, especially if the European countries find themselves abandoned by their American ally in the future.

For the moment, despite the slump in transatlantic relations, European countries are trying to balance their attempt at independent action with their fight to regain Donald Trump's trust. This was evident during Emmanuel Macron's visit to Washington, where he combined gestures of complicity, openly propagandistic images - a photograph of both presidents with their thumbs up or an image of the French president in the official car, effusively bidding farewell to his American counterpart with his fist raised - with an appearance before the press full of bewilderment and disagreement between the two leaders. Not afraid to lie again, Donald Trump insisted that the European Union would get its money back for having provided financing to Ukraine in the form of a loan - even if this were the case, the economic situation in Ukraine, the level of debt and the complete lack of intention of kyiv to repay any loan makes the US president's claim laughable - Macron took the American leader by the hand and specified that European countries and institutions have contributed "around 60% of the total" in the form of "real money".

“For me, the sequence could be this: first, negotiations between the United States and Russia, the United States and Ukraine… Then, a truce. It can be achieved in the next few weeks… Then, negotiations on security guarantees, territories and infrastructure… After that, there will be a peace agreement,” said the French president in an interview with Fox News in which he spoke of Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty, but not necessarily its territorial integrity. Despite this nuance, possibly because his words were spoken on Donald Trump’s favorite channel, European countries and leaders continue to insist on the idea of ​​a just peace , which implies, as several of the leaders who traveled to Kiev on Monday have explicitly stated, the restoration of the territorial integrity of the State according to its internationally recognized borders.

This recipe for war requires action beyond words. Over the past year, especially since last summer when it became clear that Donald Trump's chances of returning to the White House were high, the Biden administration, NATO leadership and the European Union countries worked to make the war in Ukraine Trump-proof . In their attempt to prevent the new president from abandoning Ukraine, stopping military supplies or forcing Kiev to accept a deal with Moscow, the allies wanted to maximally strengthen Zelensky's negotiating position by increasing military supplies and approving new military packages that would guarantee the arrival of weapons and ammunition to the front regardless of the opinion of the new administration in Washington. In the last phase of the campaign and the time of transition, the idea of ​​peace through force that Trumpism used as a slogan increased the confidence of Zelensky and his European allies, who saw in it the continuity of Joe Biden's performance. Pete Hegseth's speech, the conversation between Trump and Putin and the meeting in Riyadh broke with this dynamic and left the European countries out of the game, which are now trying to quickly regroup in search of a plan.

The European Union is already responsible for maintaining the Ukrainian state and ensuring that Kiev can continue to assist displaced people or pay pensions, but the United States is the key ally when it comes to maintaining the Ukrainian Armed Forces and their ability to fight with guarantees. “If President Trump cuts off supplies, Kiev and its other allies will have difficulty covering a shortfall in military equipment,” wrote The Wall Street Journal yesterday in an article analyzing what would happen to the Ukrainian military effort if Washington were to stop supplying them. The same article indicates that US military supplies to Ukraine are guaranteed for the coming months and recalls that the Biden administration “sent weapons from existing US arsenals and signed contracts with the American defense industry to acquire ammunition, air defense interceptors, vehicles and other materials. These deliveries will continue until 2026.” In fact, the only circumstance in which US supplies could be affected would be the one raised by Kaja Kallas after the Riyadh meeting: an agreement between the United States and Russia that would not be accepted by Ukraine and the European Union, something that would break the decades-long dynamic of cooperation between Brussels and Washington, so it must be considered unlikely.

However, even in that case, according to The Wall Street Journal, European countries would be able to supply the necessary weapons to continue fighting for a while, even though the Republican Senate majority leader has already made it clear that there is no appetite for approving new US military aid packages. “The large arms shipments that the Biden administration sent or contracted in its final months should be enough to allow the Ukrainians to continue fighting at the current pace until at least mid-year, according to Celeste Wallander, a former senior Pentagon official,” explains the article, which states that currently, Ukraine finances 55% of military equipment, while the EU contributes 25% and the United States 20%. The media forgets to specify that a significant part of that percentage contributed by Ukraine beyond its own production (widely exaggerated although Western media continue to present the data provided by Kiev as facts without the need for verification) is paid for thanks to subsidies from allies and that, therefore, it depends on access to the main arms market, the American one.

Production difficulties and diminished industrial capacity make it necessary to access the US military industry to continue supplying Ukraine. As Zelensky has repeatedly said, European countries alone are not capable of supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the necessary materiel even with increased financial support. In addition to European shortcomings in producing, for example, artillery shells, “some US supplies – including advanced air defense systems, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, navigation systems, and long-range rocket artillery – will be virtually impossible to replace in the short term. Europe simply does not make enough or, in some cases, any.” “While Europe could theoretically match the United States in spending, I do not believe it will be able to match the full range of necessary weapons systems, and in certain critical categories, such as air defense interceptors, there will quickly be a problem of quantity,” the article says, citing a defense expert. In other words, Ukraine could not continue fighting with even minimal guarantees.

Ukraine’s and Europe’s dependence on US supplies is not limited to material that cannot be produced or is produced in insufficient quantities. Without the US, Ukraine would lose access to long-range missiles, and the shortage of Patriot systems and ammunition would be a serious problem for Kiev in its fight against Russian missiles. However, there is one more detail that The Wall Street Journal does not dwell on : the fact that European countries and Ukraine need US-made components, without which the weapons simply cannot be used. Hence, Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer needed Joe Biden’s permission to give Ukraine approval to use French and British Scalp and Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory. The US is not only needed to supply sufficient quantities of ammunition, weapons such as ATACMS or Patriot, internet access via Starlink or real-time intelligence, but its permission is needed for the use of other weapons that European countries could continue to supply. Hence the emptiness of Kallas' threat not to accept a Russia-US agreement and the need to convince Donald Trump that the only acceptable peace is one achieved through war.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/02/26/31635/

Google Translator

*****

Three Years of a Cruel and Destructive NATO Proxy War in Ukraine
Posted by Internationalist 360° on February 25, 2025
Dmitri Kovalevich

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Graves of Ukrainian soldiers during the memorial day at the Lychakiv military cemetery on Nov. 1, 2023, in Lviv. (Stanislav Ivanov/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)

Dmitri Kovalevich examines how the West sabotaged the Minsk 2 agreement, pushing Ukraine toward war, dictatorship, and political repression.


The end of February marks three years since the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine and 11 years since the ‘Euromaidan’ coup of February 2014. The coup was the main cause of the current military conflict.

The war in the now-former eastern territories of Ukraine could have been avoided had two successive presidencies in Kiev (Petro Poroshenko, 2014-2019 and Volodomyr Zelensky since 2019) complied with the Minsk 2 peace agreement of February 2015. Minsk 2 (text here), was agreed by Kiev and the pro-autonomy forces in the Donbass region on February 12, 2015. France, Germany, and Russia co-signed the agreement as guarantors. The agreement was unanimously endorsed by no less than the UN Security Council on February 17, 2015.

Minsk 2 envisioned the return of Lugansk and Donetsk (the two rebellious ‘peoples republics’ of the industrialized Donbass region) to the fold of the Ukrainian constitution, this time as semi-autonomous oblasts (provinces). Kiev also agreed to a neutral status for Ukraine. It could apply for membership in the European Union if it chose, but membership in the NATO military alliance was for Russia a non-starter.

EU membership increasingly became a goal of Western-oriented business interests in Ukraine during the decade of the 2000s. That decade followed 10 years of sharp economic decline following the dissolution in 1989-90 of Soviet Ukraine and of the Soviet Union (USSR, of which Soviet Ukraine was a key constituent).

Tragically for the people of post-Soviet Ukraine, the Western countries, particularly the leading powers of NATO, quietly and deceptively opposed Minsk 2. They worked quietly from the get-go to sabotage the agreement.

Deception of Ukrainians by the West

On February 12, 2025, the deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council, Aleksey Shevtsov, spoke on the ninth anniversary of the signing of Minsk 2, explaining once again to those who would listen that Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine would never have happened had the West honored the agreement. He stressed that the people of Ukraine today have every right to demand an accounting for the deceptions that took place in 2015 and after.

On the same day, the Ukrainian online publication Strana published a lengthy commentary in its Telegram messaging service headlined, ‘Why did the Minsk agreement fail?’ Strana wrote, “Russia says that Kiev deliberately refused to fulfill the conditions of the Minsk 2 agreement and instead proceeded to rearm its army and restart armed attacks against the people of Donbass. The Russian government says it can no longer trust the government in Kiev and so there is no possibility of a ‘Minsk 3’.” (‘Minsk 1’ was a first attempt, in September 2014, by the pro-autonomy forces of Donbass to reach a peace agreement with the new administration in Kiev.)

Strana wrote further, “Russia did not launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2014 or 2015. Perhaps it wanted to, who knows, but it could not do so because it would have been hit with harsh economic sanctions similar to those levied against it by the Western powers beginning in February 2022. It would have faced economic sanctions worse than those initially levied against it following the Crimea referendum of March 2014. The Russian economy was in no shape to easily withstand such sanctions, in contrast to the situation in 2022.

“Additionally, although the Ukrainian army back then was much weaker compared to 2022, this was also the case for the Russian army.”

In their recollections of the events of those years, leaders of today’s Donetsk Peoples Republic (today a constituent of the Russian Federation) say that the main opponent of a major military response to Kiev’s continued military provocations and sabotage of Minsk 2 was the Russian military. Russian military leaders said at the time that the Russian Federation did not have enough combat-ready troops to take on such a large and industrial country as Ukraine.

“From a purely military point of view, the rapid success of Russia in Crimea in the spring of 2014 was due to the fact that Russian troops were already present on the Crimean peninsula [by virtue of a 1997 agreement between Russia and Ukraine; see Wikipedia on the subject]. They needed no time to deploy, and they prevented armed attacks being threatened by the paramilitaries of the new administration in Kiev. At the time, there were no large military formations of the Russian Federation along the lengthy Russian-Ukrainian border. Donbass’s self-defense forces only began to form in the late spring of 2014 and it was several years before they were integrated as auxiliaries of the Russian armed forces.”

As Russian sources stated at the time, the initial military defense that arose in the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts of Ukraine against the paramilitaries of the 2014 coup bore the markings of a military adventure and were not at all coordinated with the political leadership of the Russian Federation. The self-defense forces hoped to convince or pressure Russia to join a war of defense for which Russia was not ready, not politically, economically nor militarily.

What the Western-incited war in Ukraine has wrought

In the lead-up to and since the 2014 coup, western and central Ukraine has been living the fate of a battering ram to be used by the Western imperialist powers to weaken Russia, regardless of the tragic human consequences and of the prospect of Ukraine being cast off once it is no longer needed for such a role. The results of this cruel and heinous policy are increasingly evident as graveyards continue to spread on Ukraine’s territory with each passing day.

The Politnavigator media outlet explained (as reported on Telegram on February 1) the consequences of such policy for the mortals conscripted into war, many against their will. The report cites Anton Cherny, an officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He explains, “We are being lied to about the value of our soldiers’ lives. I watched the speech of our commander-in-chief that every soldier is valuable to Ukraine and worth his weight in gold. That’s what they tell the people, but it’s not true.”

Cherny says that 90% of the soldiers who die or succumb to injuries on the battlefields are simply buried there and then officially listed as missing. “Everyone there knows perfectly well what is happening.” And the indignities do not end there. The families of those reported as ‘missing’ do not receive the financial compensation to which they are entitled.

Cherny also explains that it is extremely difficult for surviving fighters to exit the grim fighting along the front lines. “It’s hard to get out of there by yourself, it’s unrealistic. How lucky it would be if there were fog, very big snow or some other bad weather.” He explains that Ukrainian lines are under constant surveillance from drones flying overhead. As soon as evacuation vehicles approach from the Ukraine side, the drones threaten to strike them, making it very difficult to evacuate the injured or the dead from the various battlefields.

Politnavigator continues its report, ” ‘The army doesn’t provide guidelines or instructions for soldiers to somehow make their tasks easier. Its words to this effect are just talk. Soldiers are told to go here or there and ‘do’ something, but as to what, where and why, you have to be some kind of superman to figure it out. It’s unreal,’ Cherny says indignantly.”

Provoking the sleeping bear of Russia

Radical nationalist and neo-Nazi paramilitaries operating under the control of Kiev’s police and special services waged nine years of military conflict and terrorist attacks against civilians in Donbass from 2014 to 2021. This was bound to provoke a reaction from the Russian Federation sooner rather than later, as any serious commentator knew and reported.

Ukrainian commentators were writing more than three years ago that Kiev’s deployments of paramilitaries in Donbass and its turning a blind eye to their crimes, backed by promises of weapons by belligerent Western governments, would inevitably provoke Russia into responding, as though provoking a bear with a stick. The weapons of Ukraine, many provided by the West, did indeed, predictably, awaken the bear, and angrily.

In early February 2025, the prime minister of neighboring Georgia, Irakli Kobakhidze, told journalists that back in 2022, his country’s then-government was being encouraged by the West to open a ‘second front’ against Russia. The country was to be used just as Ukraine was being used. According to the Kobakhidze, Georgian officials of the day were told a fable by the Western powers to convince them to act. “They said Ukraine is winning the war; you should not miss this chance to strike against Russia.”

Kobakhidze believes it will now take Ukraine 100 years to return to a state of development comparable where it was prior to the 2014. He asks, “Why was all this done? No one is offering a clear answer to this question. However, there is an answer: some global interests, evil interests, have sacrificed our friendly country Ukraine.”

Full-fledged dictatorship

The eleven years that have elapsed since the Euromaidan coup of 2014 have been years of Ukraine sliding inexorably towards dictatorship, all the while accompanied by rosy phrases from EU leaders claiming that a ‘triumph of democracy’ was taking place. The ideology of Nazism from the World War II era has been officially rehabilitated, while opponents of this course have been targeted by armed, ultra-nationalists and neo-Nazis.

All left-wing parties in Ukraine have been banned. Some of their members and leaders have been killed, while many more have been forced into exile. Protests against, and critics of, the ‘pro-European’ dictatorship in Kiev have been targeted for repression. The Western powers have turned a blind eye to the crimes being committed, while United Nations officials have occasionally issued toothless resolutions expressing ‘concern’ about the civil rights being violated.

In 2021, Zelensky banned more political parties critical of his government, and he closed all television channels deemed non-compliant with his policies. No court or other legal reviews of these decisions have taken place.

With the outbreak of war in February 2022, Zelensky imposed martial law and then canceled national elections for the presidency and the legislature (Rada). These were to take place no later than April 2024, according to the Ukraine constitution. Zelensky has said that Ukraine cannot hold elections until it has fully regained control over its former territories. Since this would be impossible to achieve, his statements on the matter mean that for all intents and purposes, elections will not take place in the remaining territories held by Kiev. Period.

Alexander Dubinsky, a former associate of Zelensky jailed by his administration, writes that the war became for Zelensky an escape from the social explosion building up inside the country and appearing inevitable by the end of 2021. “I think this largely determined why Zelensky promoted military rhetoric in every possible way, and why in March 2022 he ceded to Western government pressures to draw back from a political settlement with the Russian Federation.”

For Dubinsky, the end of the war would mean a loss of political power by Zelensky and his cohorts, and this, in turn, would expose them to direct conflict with all the enemies he has managed to make. He may be able to protect himself from the widows and mothers of the deceased, reasons Dubinsky, but not from the violent, ‘serious men’ who have proliferated under his government.

Detention camps using torture methods under Zelensky

Every day, more and more facts are emerging in Ukraine about the detention camps that Zelensky has created in order to sustain its power and continue the NATO proxy war.

In January, legislator Oleksandr Dubinskyy urged Ukrainians to report to U.S. authorities about the detention camps that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has organized, notably for the purpose of forcing accused conscription evaders to confess to accusations of state treason. According to him, the SBU detention camps are prototypes of what Ukraine as a whole has become under Zelensky.

Dubinskyy has been detained since November 2023 under accusations of financial crimes and treason. He has recently announced from detention his intention to run for president of Ukraine if and when a national election takes place.

Another former associate of Zelensky, legislator Artem Dmytruk, wrote on Telegram on January 30 that the entire special corps of the Lukyanivske pre-trial detention center in Kiev should be called a concentration camp and named ‘Zelensky’s Factory’. Legislators Oleksandr Dubinsky and Yevhen Shevchenko are among those imprisoned there. “90|% of detainees in this center face charges by the office of the expired president Zelensky.”

Dmytruk fled to Britain in August 2024 shortly after he was the only deputy in the Rada to speak and vote against a new law banning the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, of which he is a subdeacon.

The Ukrainian magazine Liberal published a lengthy report in February saying that individuals and political formations connected to the Zelensky administration are the only ones in Ukraine not talking about political repression prevailing today in the country.

The authors claim that extensive political repression was being prepared and carried out well before the start of the Russian military intervention in February 2022. According to the publication, thousands of SBU employees were sent to border regions on the eve of the Russian intervention to monitor troop morale and other measures of the military situation.

At the same time, Kiev began to address its shortages of police and prison personnel in Kiev and other regions by recruiting ‘trained athletes’ into the ranks of the SBU after completing three-month courses in western Ukraine. ‘Trained athletes’ is a euphemism in Ukraine for members of criminal gangs.

“Thousands of bone-crackers performing police functions inside the country spread out without the slightest remorse to beat testimony out of Ukrainians using the most brutal forms of violence and creating torture institutions such as the famous ‘Sports Hall’ on Volodymyrska Street [in the center of Kiev],” writes Liberal.

“People were lying on floors, deprived of the right to move and subjected to constant beatings and humiliation. The Ukrainian anthem and nationalist songs were played continuously from loudspeakers. The eyes of the prisoners would be taped shut with duct tape or tied with rags, and they were taken to the toilet only once a day. They were also fed very sparingly, once per day.”

The authors note that political prisoners now account for about half of the prisoners in Ukraine. The main motives for many SBU officers, Liberal notes, have not been security concerns but the robbery of suspects. Detainees have been forced to surrender their personal wealth upon arrest and detention.

Two reports in English on prison conditions in Ukraine were published in 2024, one by a Danish government agency (110 pages) and one by an agency of the Council of Europe (46 pages). Both reports skirt incendiary accusations such as the one published by Liberal and the many ones appearing widely on social media.

On February 12, a German court for the first time approved the extradition of a conscientious objector to military service who had fled Ukraine. Ukraine prohibits men of military age (age 25 to 55, 60 for officers) from leaving the country. Many of the fugitives from Ukraine’s compulsory conscription have chosen to flee to Germany, attracted by Germany’s claimed liberal values. This court decision is the first warning sign that the authorities of European Union countries may begin to conduct forced deportations of the Ukrainian men who have managed by hook or by crook to escape from their homeland’s military conscription. It is reported that in 2024, there are some 200,000 Ukrainian men residing in Germany alone.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/02/ ... n-ukraine/

Minsk this, Minsk that. As I recall the people of Donbass wanted no part of 'Minsk', some wanted independence, others Russia. 'Minsk' was another concession to the West by Putin who still hadn't given up on 'joining the Club'. I sure hope he has by now...

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Minority Reports: How Endowment Effect Would Make Ukraine Mineral Deal as a Tar Baby; Brian Berletic on US Preserving USAID Regime Change Capabilities; John Helmer on Shambolic US Conduct of Ukraine Negotiations
Posted on February 24, 2025 by Yves Smith

We thought it was important to highlight some minority reports on the Trump Administration’s foreign policy posture, above all with respect to the Ukraine conflict, because many commentators seem to have been swept along by Trump messaging, particularly about the hope of a negotiated settlement. Trump’s fondness for bluster, his deliberately overwhelming “flood the zone” approach, pugnaciously breaking with norms, and his reflex to try to take ground tactically, even when it may be disadvantageous strategically have muddied both the Trump strategic continuity with the US desire to dominate geopolitically and his confused approach to the negotiations over the Ukraine war.

Because the Trump Administration has no clear idea of what it wants in terms of a Ukraine end game, save being able to claim that Trump ended the war and is therefore a great deal-maker, it is at serious risk of falling into the behavior Sun Tsu warned about: “All tactics and no strategy is the noise before the defeat.” Specifically, we’ll discuss how oddly under-amplified assessments by Brian Berletic and John Helmer, show that the idea, popular in the independent media, that Trump represents a great foreign policy break from the past is exaggerated. His difference in methods are being unduly confused with differences in aims. But we’ll first address the way a new Administration pet fixation, that of wresting a minerals/other economic rights deal from Ukraine, is contrary to the aim of reaching an agreement with Russia.

Ukraine Minerals/Rights Deal as a Tar Baby

Your humble blogger had warned that what then seemed like an outlandishly improbable idea, that of the US obtaining some sort of legal rights to or other economic claims on Ukraine mineral deposits (and potentially related production facilities) looked as if the US was not just receptive, but working to make it happen. Remember, Trump sent Scott Bessant, his Treasury Secretary, with a document for Zelensky to sign the rights over. There were plenty of US officials attending the Munich Security Conference who could have been dispatched with a document if the point simply was to rattle Zelensky and remind him the US called the shots.

And indeed, the flurry of reports in the mainstream US press (including the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times) and the Ukraine media show that the US is now browbeating Zelensky,1 hard, over his refusal to agree to a deal, with admittedly some marked differences in the accounts as to what the pact might amount to. Since this is an overly dynamic situation, forgive us for not trying to reconcile the various reports. However, the New York Times claims to have sighted draft terms from the US:

http://twitter.com/i/status/1890739641491333391

The terms of the new proposal, which is dated Feb. 21 and was reviewed by The New York Times, call for Ukraine to relinquish to the United States half of its revenues from natural resources, including minerals, gas and oil, as well as earnings from ports and other infrastructure. A similar demand was made in a previous version of the deal, dated Feb. 14 and reviewed by The Times.

Admittedly, Zelensky is fighting mighty hard not to sign anything along these lines. His latest gambit is a fake resignation offer (a trade for membership in NATO). But him putting that idea in play signals that he suspects or knows that agreeing to give rights to Ukraine property that almost certainly has Ukraine oligarch claimants would put his survival at risk.

As much as it is entertaining to watch Zelensky struggle, the far more important matter is that any such deal is contrary to what many had assumed the Trump aim to be, of freeing itself from Project Ukraine. Note the tidbits from the same New York Times story:

On Saturday evening, Mr. Trump ramped up pressure on Ukraine to sign the minerals deal, which has now been under negotiation for more than 10 days. Several draft agreements have already been rejected by the Ukrainian side because they did not contain specific U.S. security guarantees that would protect Kyiv against further Russian aggression…

On Friday, the United States proposed a new draft agreement, obtained by The New York Times, which still lacked security guarantees for Ukraine and included even tougher financial terms. The new draft reiterated a U.S. demand that Ukraine relinquish half of its revenues from natural resource extraction, including minerals, gas and oil, as well as earnings from ports and other infrastructure.

The fact that uber-Russia hawk Boris Johnson supports this deal should tell you everything you need to know. From the Kyiv Independent:

“The deal should be signed,” Johnson said, speaking at the YES conference event held in Kyiv by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation on Feb. 24, the third anniversary of the Russian full-scale invasion. “It commits the U.S. to a free and sovereign Ukraine. A continued American support is well worth the price for Ukraine.”

And from a new story at Time:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration’s minerals plan was to create a U.S.-Ukraine partnership, calling it a “win-win.”

“We make money if the Ukrainian people make money,” Bessent told Fox News Channel’s Sunday Morning Futures program.

Keep in mind what this implies:

The US will have incentives to keep funding Ukraine, not just economic but also Trump regime prestige

The US will not want to concede that the four oblasts that Russia now deems to be part of Russia, namely Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporzhizhia, are indeed Russian. Remember, having them recognized or at least not actively contested as being Russia would be highly problematic. Many of the prized mineral deposits, such as two of Ukraine’s four biggest lithium deposits, are in those oblasts. Alternatively, the US will insist on a financial settlement or exclusive/preferential mineral rights. If it is Zelensky who signs this deal, recall that Russia does not recognize him as able to make binding commitments on behalf of Ukraine. Mind you, this is a secondary leg of the argument but will further poison any talks.

The US wants rights to earnings from ports. That includes Odessa. Even though taking Odessa would be some ways away and Putin has not put it on the menu,2 many Russians are attached to the idea of Russia again controlling this historically Russian city, particularly after the Maidan coup massacre at its Trade Union. Other commentators had thought it would be strategically important for Russia to take the entire Ukraine Black Sea coast to guarantee that rump Ukraine would become landlocked and dependent on the kindness of Russia.

In other words, a mineral pact will create a US investment in Ukraine, whether realizable or not, beyond the considerable Biden Administration sunk cost. And it will be subject to the cognitive bias called endowment effect. From Wikipedia:

In psychology and behavioral economics, the endowment effect, also known as divestiture aversion, is the finding that people are more likely to retain an object they own than acquire that same object when they do not own it…

One of the most famous examples of the endowment effect in the literature is from a study by Daniel Kahneman, Jack Knetsch & Richard Thaler, in which Cornell University undergraduates were given a mug and then offered the chance to sell it or trade it for an equally valued alternative (pens). They found that the amount participants required as compensation for the mug once their ownership of the mug had been established (“willingness to accept”) was approximately twice as high as the amount they were willing to pay to acquire the mug (“willingness to pay”).

Other examples of the endowment effect include work by Ziv Carmon and Dan Ariely,[9] who found that participants’ hypothetical selling price (willingness to accept or WTA) for NCAA final four tournament tickets were 14 times higher than their hypothetical buying price (willingness to pay or WTP).

We warned from the outset that this scheme would mire the Trump Administration in Ukraine. From a February 15 post:

Most commentators took the Trump talk of owning or getting rights to Ukraine’s minerals to be bluster. Yours truly remarked otherwise, that this looked like a way for Trump to justify and get funding for a continued US participation, even if at a lower level than under Biden, by presenting it as a loan. This would make it the bastard cousin of the Ursuala von der Leyen plan to issue bonds against Russian frozen assets to which it does not have good title.

But this approach would appeal to Trump by virtue of first, creating an option (options have financial value) and second, making possible Trump posturing about continuing the war seem dimly credible by providing a way to get funding through Congress. Even if the US and its Western allies can only dribble arms to Ukraine out of current production, more money would allow it to continue to prop up the regime in Kiev.

Now of course there is the wee problem that the UK and EU states are pretty much out of weapons and the US is almost entirely supplying Ukraine out of new production rather than stocks. Plus the Trump Administration certainly acted as if it wanted to settle or exit Project Ukraine because China.

Now this Ukraine minerals deal may be an example of Trump habits operating to his detriment. Consider how the Trump approach of maximizing his possible negotiating space by advancing all sorts of frame-breaking ideas is not such a hot idea when done reflexively, as seems to be the case in Trump 2.0, as opposed to deliberately. Trump himself regularly threatens radically extreme actions, like ethnic cleansing in Gaza, and browbeats heads of state to try to get his way. Not only is Trump not getting his Riviera development there, but his bullying makes him look like a petulant jerkface. Why should anyone want to get in any relationship with a partner who relishes not just crass dominance displays but even humiliating heads of state (witness King Abdullah of Jordan) and is indifferent to destabilizing the entire region? These actions are inimical to building trust and dealing with anything other than subservient parties.1 Mind you, Kissinger warned long ago that being a friend of the US is fatal but Team Trump is putting that front and center.

Or perhaps Trump and his operatives still believe that Russia is having trouble sustaining its war effort, and so shoring up US credibility and commitment will lead Russia to make concessions. Or perhaps, as some hard core pro-Russia hawks believe, Putin has not been as aggressive as he should have been in prosecuting the war because he is in the pocket of the oligarchs, and they don’t like it much.3 So according to them Putin would back down in the face of a US show of resolve, or alternatively, won’t press his considerable advantage.

Is Trump’s America First Really About Giving Up US Aspirations to Dominance?

Many commentators correctly made much of Marco Rubio’s extended remark that the unipolar moment was an unnatural episode in history, and the US recognized that it was operating in a multipolar world. But has this new perception been matched by a big shift in behavior? Has Team Trump changed its mind but not changed its heart?

One can look at Trump’s extreme shows on belligerence on the international stage and argue that the US is as committed to being a dominant power as before, but is having to adapt its playbook considerably in light of its military over-extension and the continued rise of China. A Trump that had reconciled himself to multipolarity would not have said:



Similarly, would a US not bent on more than regional dominance be engaged in a tariffs and trade war with China, or threatening to impose tariffs on European countries, or bizarrely bullying South Africa over supposedly being mean to whites?

And let’s not forget that the US still fantasizes about military action against China despite our inability to win (as war games have repeatedly shown) and quickly escalated after the Trump defense and security teams were in place?

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And what is Trump trying to achieve? Brian Berletic contends that most independent commentators have fallen for the MAGA/America First hype when Trump represents strategic continuity for the US by trying to maintain dominance, particularly vis-a-vis China. In particular, Berletic described, based on watching the full confirmation hearings for Trump defense and intelligence picks, that the US was not getting rid of the USAID regime change/messaging apparatus, merely shuttering its DEI and other MAGA-disapproved elements.

See this interview with Glenn Diesen starting at 6:07:



Just to address this situation with Ukraine, with these groups losing their funding. It didn’t work, they lost the war and so they’re just pulling the plug on it. I’m in a country where the the US is still very much so promoting political interference here. All of the so-called independent media are completely dependent on Washington and Western private foundations. They’re still very much in business, they still continue to pursue regime change, US-backed regime change, here in Southeast Asia.

And at 11:35:

The 4 to 5 hour, I know it’s a long hearing, but there was a US Senate hearing for this USAID so-called defunding. All throughout the hearing, and it was chaired by a Republican who supported the Trump Administration’s supposed defunding of the organization, and all throughout the hearing, they reiterated that they have not defunded all of these programs. They only defunded the programs dealing with DEI, transgender issues, other types of issues, the political wedge issues the left and right use to distract at home. And also try to create the same dynamic in targeted countries. They’re only defunding that. Everything else is still going to be funded, all of the evasive, manipulative, interfering programs the US has been funding all along continue, unabated, around the world. I can’t even remember how many times the chair of the hearing said, “We need USAID to be countering China and its Belt & Road Initiative and not talking about DEI or funding transgender operas around the world.” So if people really listened to what they are saying, this isn’t about defunding or stopping US interference abroad. It’s making it more efficient, getting rid of the political bloat that became attached during the Biden Administration it, streamlining it, sharpening it if you will so it can do a more efficient job of cutting down a targeted a nation’s sovereignity.

Needless to say, this assessment, based on what the Trump Administration has said it intends to do with USAID operations, is very much at odds with the conventional, complacent view that Trump has gotten the US out of the regime change business. Why pray tell, would it have been in the US’ strategic interest to do so? It’s not as if we could win any concessions for eliminating that apparatus.

John Helmer on the Shambolic US Negotiations with Russia

Due to this post having become a bit long, we’ll cover John Helmer’s careful reading of what happened at the US-initiated talks with Russia in Riyadh last week. Helmer based on his own experience in the Carter Administration as well as input from Russian sources confirming what could be inferred from the remarks of various participants afterwards was that the session, from the Russian vantage, was a train wreck. Even if you didn’t have the benefit of the reports afterwards, the way the US went about it was nuts. The US side demanded an immediate high level session, when those typically do not happen before adequate ground work has been undertaken. On top of that, the key members of the Trump foreign policy team had only just been installed. And with DOGE running a bulldozer through State, it’s not as if Rubio and his colleagues had any expertise (such as from career staffers who’d been there before Team Biden came in) to draw on.

Helmer provided a fine write-up, with an explanation of his sources and methods, at Dances with Bears in
TRUMP TRIES GRANDSTANDING IN RIYADH – RUBIO STEPS DOWN. He reprised some of its findings, and added new observations, in a talk with Nima of Dialogue Works.



From the very top:

Helmer: The Russian perception is that the American side is a kasha, is a porridge, is a mess. But it’s necessary not to be impolite and say so…..First, what should the Russian side do next?

This problem is actually serious. The US called for a high-level meeting and had no idea what to do then, no agenda, no asks, no proposals. The point seemed to be to create a perception of momentum and pretend that Trump was making serious progress on ending the war. Helmers points to the almost desperation of the US side in saying the fact of this meeting proved that Trump was the only man who could end the war…in lieu of having anything else to say.

I have occasionally dealt with negotiators who were seriously over their heads (as in they might have had expertise in other area but were total newbies to the matter at hand). It’s difficult to move things forward without winding up insulting them by having to ‘splain things they ought to know. But even then, they had clear objectives, namely wanting to complete a transaction while making sure they had adequately protecting their client, even if they didn’t have the foggiest as to what the latter might require on a “fine points of contract” basis. This is much worse due to the lack of a notion of what success would look like to them. The Russians might have inferred prior to the minerals deal fixation, that the Trump goal was “Get me out of Ukraine in a way that allows me to pretend I got a win.” It’s become even harder to fathom what the US wants.

Confirming this general take, from Helmer at 29:50:

Rubio looked as nervous and inexperienced as I’ve ever seen a Secretary of State in such a meeting

Helmer also argued that the Russia side missed a chance to test the US on the military side, as in suggest what amounted to trades to build trust (“If we do this, will you do that?”). While that may be true, the flip side is that hindsight is always 20/20 and the Russian side may not have been imaginative enough to anticipate that the Americans would show up having no idea what they intended to accomplish. Nevertheless, Helmer also contends that Russia had already been making concessions to the US when the US had made no commitments at all, via slowing its prosecution of the war (measured in a marked drop in casualties on the Ukraine side). I’m not sure about this metric. More Ukrainians may be running away or surrendering. And some experts say the weather has also slowed Russia of late. Nevertheless, from Helmer at 26:30:

Why is Pakrovsk not Russian yet? For six months, the advance has been slow, along the line but Pavrosk was to have been Russianized, an recaptured, and recivilized months ago. It’s still about six kilometers away from the advance line of Russian forces? Why is there any significant Ukrainian resistance, as there is, in Kursk? Why are they continually able to be resupplied?….What are the political constraints on Russian tactics and strategy at this point?

Mind you, Helmer is close to the General Staff, and they, like our correspondent quoted in footnote 3 below, are not happy at the refusal to prostrate Ukraine via sustained power system attacks. I can see the cynical logic in not clearing Ukraine forces out of Kursk. Zelensky has been so desperate to keep the Kursk incursion alive that he’s been pouring too much of his remaining men and materiel into that effort. Even if it looks bad to the Russian public, from a military perspective, this is close to a turkey shoot. What’s not to like?

Helmer also said that Lavrov admitted that Russia had cut back the power system attacks by responding to a Rubio request to stop them by saying that Russia was not attacking civilian infrastructure. He then chided the Russians for not getting anything in return for that act of restraint. I read Lavrov’s answer as a dodge. Russia’s position has been that it has only hit military-related targets….which can and does include dual use infrastructure. But even assuming Helmer is right here, what about the US stopping deep missile strikes into Russia? Was Russia attempting a qui pro quo here? Mind you, I don’t pretend to have answers, but want to point out that there are a lot of unknowns here.

If anyone other than Trump were president, we might be on more certain informational ground after the next set of US-Russia talks, apparently on for Tuesday. But being sure of anything with Trump is a gamble.

_____

1 Looking at the timeline, the recent verbal abuse of Zelensky by Trump, such calling him a dictator and blaming him for the lack of peace in Ukraine (whether by being responsible for the war, as some have read Trump’s remarks, or by refusing to negotiate with Russia) is reminiscent of how Trump upbraided Netanyahu by putting a blistering take by Jeffrey Sachs in his Truth Social. The verbal brutalizing, in the case of Netanyahu, was to bully him into accepting the Gaza ceasefire. Notice here that despite calling Zelensky a dictator, the US is pushing very hard for the minerals deal, while not demanding that Zelensky hold elections or revoke the decree that prevents the Ukraine government (and arguably him too) from negotiating with Ukraine.

Some of the media accounts:

Wall Street Journal U.S. Doubles Down on Demand That Ukraine Sign Minerals Deal February 20 and White House, Ukraine Close In on Deal Related to Mineral Rights February 21

New York Times U.S. Pressing Tough Demands in Revised Deal for Ukraine’s Minerals February 22 and Zelensky Pushes Back Against U.S. Mineral Deal and Announces European Summit February 23

2 IIRC, it was in an interview that Putin described Odessa as a possible “apple of discord”. That seemed to signal that he regarded Russia taking it as having the potential to create ongoing friction.

3 It is true Russia could have forced Ukraine to its knees some time ago by ramping up its electrical war. But here I don’t think the impediment was the oligarchs. First, too many forget that Russia is fighting a coalition war. It needs the support of China and India in particular to continue to circumvent Collective West sanctions. Neither is comfortable with Russia gobbling up Ukraine even if they accept intellectually that that became Russia’s least bad option. So Russia also needs to have facts or developments that justify to them why Russia needs to occupy more rather than less of Ukraine. Another issue may be divisions in Russian leadership over what the ideal end state would be in terms of Russia’s long-term security and ability to administer any occupied territory beyond the four oblasts.

Some of the argument made by one of the Russia hawks, hoisted from e-mail (mind you, there is a lot more where this came from):

Vladimir Putin’s June 2024 terms [for a ceasefire and starting talks: Ukraine commits to never enter NATO, Ukraine withdraws all its forces from the four oblasts Russia considers to be Russian]:

That was Putin begging to be allowed to surrender, not expressing a position of strength.

Again, the minimal winning condition for Russia is that Ukrainian statehood ends. Maybe you hand Galicia over to Poland, but that’s a difficult proposition now given that there are barely any Poles left there after the mutually agreed ethnic cleansing on both sides of the border precisely in order to make it permanent and irreversible. But there is no such thing as an independent Ukraine with a capital in Kiev that will be friendly to Russia and not immediately rearmed and prepared for another war. The only way to prevent that is if Russian troops are controlling the borders, and the presence of the Russian army in Kiev is dictating what laws are written, what the schoolbooks teach children, and what is on TV. In which case you might just as well annex the whole thing, it is core historic Russian territory to begin with anyway.

Where do Putin’s June 2024 terms stand with respect to that minimal winning condition? They are very far from it, thus the war would be a catastrophic loss if it ends now…

More generally, even if Russia somehow took over the whole of Ukraine (which, again, Putin’s words do not suggest and actions clearly show is not going to happen), there is the question of loss of deterrence.

Extremely unfavorable for Russia precedents have been established — first it was artillery shelling across the border, then small kamikaze drones started being launched, then long-range drones, then GMLRS missiles, then heavy cruise and ballistic missiles, and not just from Ukraine either (we are basically 100% certain about drones launched from Finland towards Murmansk, and only slightly less certain about drones from the Baltics). Plus an outright NATO invasion…

So we have:

1) the gigantic geostrategic defeat that is not taking over all of Ukraine
2) the geostrategic defeat that is Sweden and Finland joining NATO and the US right now being in the process of situating missiles there
3) the loss of deterrence.

Maybe the Kremlin can recover some ground on #2, but the rest it appears to have conceded defeat on before the “negotiations” have even started. By the mere fact of agreeing to negotiations, because there are no conceivable negotiations that will resolve issues #1 and #3…

If you are not from the region and have not witnessed events since 1989 first-hand and if you are not reading primary Russian sources (and not even the more popular ones, you have to dig a bit deeper), you have no idea about reality.


https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02 ... ine-n.html

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad

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Rybar: "We have gas, and you?" or how the Russian Armed Forces have been consistently destroying gas infrastructure in the so-called Ukraine since the beginning of 2025

Since the beginning of 2025, Russian troops have expanded the list of targets for their strikes on the territory of the so-called Ukraine. In addition to attacks on the enemy's energy complex and military facilities, regular raids on gas production infrastructure facilities have been added.

Since January 1, the Russian Armed Forces have struck more than a dozen enterprises related to the oil and gas complex in the Kharkiv , Poltava , Cherkasy , Chernihiv , Lviv and Kyiv regions .

The strikes on the enemy's oil and gas infrastructure were comprehensive. The targets of the attacks by the Russian Armed Forces were gas production enterprises, gas distribution infrastructure facilities and oil depots.

More information about the strikes by the Russian Armed Forces:

- In the Lviv region , on January 16, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a series of strikes on a gas storage facility near the village of Stryi . The official reason for the attack was the preceding raids by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russia's gas infrastructure.

Nevertheless, this day can be considered the "starting point" of a new campaign of regular massive strikes on the gas complex of the so-called Ukraine.

- In the Poltava region , over a month and a half, the Russian Armed Forces struck enterprises in the area of ​​the Machukhskoye , Kachanovskoye and Yablunovskoye gas condensate fields . Several strikes also hit the oil depot of Grandterminal LLC in Karlovka .

- In the north, the gas infrastructure of the Kharkiv region came under attack . In the village of Vodyanoye , a complex gas and condensate preparation unit was destroyed - the destruction at the facility is confirmed by photos from the scene.

The development of this field began after the collapse of the Soviet Union, about 10 years ago. It was carried out by the company "Sistemoinzhenering" , associated with the former Minister of Ecology of the so-called Ukraine Nikolai Zlochevsky .

At the same time, damage to the gas pipeline led to a drop in pressure in the gas distribution system and the blocking of several neighboring enterprises.

In the Mirny area, the Russian Armed Forces hit the capacities of the ShebelinkaGazoDobycha company , which carried out primary processing and supply of gas to the region's main networks.

- In the Chernihiv region, Russian Armed Forces drones struck a gas processing plant in the Gnedintsy area. After the landings, a large fire broke out at the facility, presumably caught on video by local residents. The current state of the plant is unknown.

- In the Kiev region, Russian troops hit a gas distribution station in Boryspil . The fire at the plant was subsequently recorded on the FIRMS fire monitoring service, and fires are also visible on publicly available Sentinel satellite images.

As a result of regular attacks by the Russian Armed Forces, the capacities of the Naftogaz company , which supplies gas and its derivatives throughout the territory of the so-called Ukraine, were damaged mainly.
➖➖➖➖➖➖
This led to interruptions in gas supply to settlements in several regions where the so-called military-industrial complex of Ukraine is located. Some people on the enemy side even declared the need to import at least a billion cubic meters of gas (back in November last year, the Zelensky government proposed to supply gas for export).
➖➖➖➖➖➖
The enemy is making significant efforts to conceal the consequences of Russian strikes on oil and gas infrastructure. During the entire period, it was possible to obtain footage of objective control of the destruction of only a few objects, which prevents us from compiling a complete picture of the current state of the gas production complex of the so-called Ukraine.

Nevertheless, even such unwillingness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to "share" the results of the raids speaks volumes - if the campaign of the Russian Armed Forces to destroy the gas infrastructure failed, the enemy would not have to make such efforts to conceal its consequences.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Feb 27, 2025 12:34 pm

Agreement in principle
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 02/27/2025

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On Tuesday, the same day that several media outlets reported that Ukraine and the United States had reached an agreement in principle on the mineral exploitation treaty and that Zelensky was due to visit the White House on Friday to sign the document, the press also published a European proposal apparently rival to Washington's. "The European Commissioner for Industrial Strategy, Stéphane Sejourne, proposed a possible different agreement to Ukrainian officials during his visit to Kiev with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen," wrote AFP , quoting the former French minister. "Twenty-one of the thirty critical materials that Europe needs can be supplied by Ukraine in a partnership that benefits everyone," said Sejourne after the meeting, which took place on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion," added the agency, raising false hopes among those who wanted to see in the supposed offer a sign of resistance to Donald Trump's neocolonial ambitions.

“The US-proposed deal on Ukrainian natural resources, which would have effectively colonised Ukraine, is dead. The EU will offer Ukraine a deal on natural resources,” wrote Igor Shushko, a retired racing driver who has made his more than 300,000 followers on social media an important asset in his work of distributing pro-Ukrainian propaganda and hatred of everything Russian, in a post that received 11,000 likes. Sometimes, desire blinds sight and is confused with reality. Hours after Sejourne’s words, the commissioner was corrected by the Commission itself, which recalled that no new agreement is being offered to Ukraine, since such collaboration has already been in force since 2021. Despite the official’s words, the European Union has not intervened in favour of Ukraine and against Donald Trump’s wishes, but was already present in the cooperation for the extraction of natural resources. In war and politics, nothing is free, and Ukraine was already economically vulnerable before the Russian invasion. While the EU insists that the deal is a “ win-win ” for both sides, the fact that an external actor gets a share of a state’s mineral revenues is a sign of an unequal relationship.

Throughout yesterday, the press interspersed announcements of an imminent deal and speculation about Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington - which would achieve his demand to be received by Donald Trump before the US president meets Vladimir Putin - with doubts about the terms of the agreement and the prospects of a signing as quick as Donald Trump seemed to believe. "Members of our governments value the final version of the agreement very positively. They say it can work," the Ukrainian president told reporters, despite admitting that he had not yet read the latest version of the document. The United States, for its part, lowered expectations and Marco Rubio insisted that work continues and there is still no final agreement. Along the same lines, Zelensky cast doubt on his visit on Friday and added that Ukraine "has received the proposal for a visit" and the teams are working on its management. Showing the White House’s disappointment with the developments and also as a form of pressure, an anonymous official told Reuters that “if Zelensky says the minerals deal is not finalised, the invitation to meet Trump may be meaningless.” Aware that his main interest is to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, threatening to cancel the Ukrainian president’s visit this week was a clear tool of pressure from someone who is aware that he has the power to force the deal on his terms. The warning was successful and in the afternoon Trump confirmed the Ukrainian president’s visit as planned.

By his actions and words, the US president is showing that his interest in Ukraine is economic and that he sees the issue of war as a business matter. Everything indicates that the negotiations with Russia will follow a similar path, and the idea of ​​reopening the country to US oil companies has been joined in recent days by Vladimir Putin's mention of reserves of rare earths and other minerals in the territory of the Russian Federation. According to Javier Blas, the Bloomberg expert who has argued that "Ukraine has scorched earth, not rare earths," Russia's annual production is equivalent to 0.6% of the world's total. Unlike Ukraine, the USGS, the US government geological service, has found substantial reserves of these minerals in Russia that are not being exploited. In this two-way negotiation, US-Ukraine and US-Russia, Moscow and kyiv not only agree that a ceasefire without resolution paths and security guarantees will not be acceptable, but they are trying to woo Washington by offering their countries' real or imagined mineral wealth and economic opportunities.

Several media outlets have recently published some of the new terms of the agreement negotiated by Bankova and the White House, from which the mention of the $500 billion that Donald Trump had hoped for has apparently disappeared, possibly because it was a figure that lacked realism. According to Axios , Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanshina said that the agreement “will demonstrate our commitment to each other for decades.” The agreement had not yet been finalized and Prime Minister Shmyhal threatened again yesterday not to sign it if it did not include security guarantees, but part of the Ukrainian government is already presenting it as the link that will inexorably unite the destinies of Ukraine and the United States in the long term. “The agreement on minerals is only part of the picture. We have heard the American administration say many times that it is part of a broader picture,” Olha Stefanishyna told the Financial Times on Tuesday, which has had access to the latest draft of the agreement. According to the outlet, Ukrainian officials “argued that they had negotiated much more favorable terms and described the deal as a way to expand the relationship with the United States to shore up Ukraine’s prospects after three years of war.”

“The final version of the agreement, dated 25 February and seen by the Financial Times , would establish a fund to which Ukraine would contribute 50% of the revenues from the “future monetisation” of state-owned mineral resources, including oil and gas, and associated logistics. The fund would also be able to invest in projects in Ukraine,” which would not include current activities but future ones – which would require investment for which Kiev does not have the capital – and so would exclude the activities of the two large state-owned companies, Naftogaz and Ukrnafta. In addition to mineral resources, infrastructure activities such as ports would also be subject to these conditions.

According to the newspaper, the fundamental change between the current terms and the first draft, dated February 7, which was handed to Zelensky in Kiev and provoked the anger of the Ukrainian president and insults from Donald Trump, is that the fund to which Ukraine will have to contribute half of its income from certain activities will not be 100% owned by the United States as was the case in the first versions. According to the Ukrainian daily Strana , the terms of the document are vague and do not even specify what percentage will be owned by Ukraine and in what form and amount part of these revenues will be reinvested in the country.

“The important thing is that the country does not present itself as a debtor,” Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters, describing what he believes to be the key point of the negotiations. Ukraine does not owe 500 billion euros, as Trump claims, nor the 100 billion euros it has received, argues the Ukrainian president, who, despite insisting that the money received from the United States does not have to be returned since it was not given in the form of a loan, is willing to sign the transfer of part of the state’s income to a fund controlled by Washington. As has become clear since this form of compensation to the United States for military assistance in recent years began to be discussed, Ukraine’s objective is to argue that, since there is no debt, kyiv’s participation in this agreement must imply a counterparty in the form of security guarantees. According to Axios and the Financial Times , the document does not mention US security guarantees, but does mention the fact that Washington seeks an independent, sovereign Ukraine with access to security guarantees, something that Kiev seems to consider sufficient to give it hope for the future.

Asked what Ukraine is getting out of the deal, Donald Trump said it would be “$350 billion, military equipment and the right to keep fighting.” That figure, the same amount the US president claims to have given to kyiv, indicates that the White House is still speaking in the past tense and that Ukraine has so far failed to convince Trump that, in addition to past assistance, it also needs a future commitment in the form of security guarantees. In his first cabinet meeting since returning to power, President Trump reiterated his position and denied that such security guarantees from the United States would be forthcoming. “We are going to make Europe do it,” he said, adding that “we are talking about Europe being their next-door neighbor, but we are making sure that everything goes well.”

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/02/27/principio-de-acuerdo/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
⚡️ Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of 27 February 2025)

— In the Kharkiv direction, units of the North force grouping defeated formations of two territorial defence brigades in the areas of the settlements of Vovchansk and Liptsy in the Kharkiv region.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 60 servicemen and a vehicle. Two artillery pieces and two ammunition depots were destroyed.

— Units of the West force grouping improved their tactical situation. They defeated the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, an airborne brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two territorial defence brigades and a National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Golubovka, Kupyansk, Borovaya, Stepovaya Novoselovka, Lozovaya, Kondrashovka in the Kharkiv region and Yampol in the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy's losses amounted to more than 180 servicemen, four armoured combat vehicles, two pickups, seven field artillery pieces, including three of Western manufacture. Two electronic warfare stations and two ammunition depots were destroyed.

— Units of the "Southern" group of forces occupied more advantageous lines and positions. They defeated the formations of two mechanized, airmobile and mountain assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Novomarkovo, Stupochki, Vasyukovka, Verkhnekamenskoye, Minkovka and Chasov Yar of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to over 150 servicemen, a combat armored vehicle, three pickups and two field artillery guns.

— Units of the "Center" group of forces improved the position along the forward edge. They defeated the manpower and equipment of four mechanized, assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Andreyevka, Peschanoye, Uspenovka, Kotlino, Elizavetovka, Sribnoye and Udachnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy lost up to 310 servicemen, a Leopard tank made in Germany, and seven combat armored vehicles, including a US-made HMMWV. A pickup truck and three artillery pieces were destroyed.

— Units of the Vostok group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses. They defeated formations of the mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinopol, Dneproenergia, Razliv, Skudnoye, and Burlatskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The enemy's losses amounted to more than 215 servicemen, a combat armored vehicle, a car, and three field artillery pieces, including a Polish-made 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Krab."

— Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of three coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Shiroke, Novopokrovka in the Zaporizhia region, Antonovka, Pridneprovskoe, Sadovoe and Veletskoye in the Kherson region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 150 servicemen, ten vehicles and an artillery piece. An electronic warfare station and two ammunition depots were destroyed.

***

Colonelcassad
In the Kremlin, against the backdrop of the negotiations in Istanbul between Russia and the United States, it was reported that Russia is not going to discuss the status of those regions that are already part of the Russian Federation according to the Constitution (Crimea, the DPR, the LPR, the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions). They are part of the Russian Federation within the 2014 borders and, from the point of view of the Constitution, the only thing that can be discussed is the de-occupation of the remaining territories. This is especially true for the Kursk region.
The territories of the Kharkiv, Sumy and Nikolaev regions controlled by the Russian Federation must be understood to be intended for discussion, since they are not part of the Russian Federation according to the Constitution.

***

Slavyansk: the operational command post of the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed, staff officers were eliminated, communications and fire control equipment was disabled.

On February 25, 2025, Russian aviation carried out a pinpoint strike with UMBP D-30SN guided aerial bombs on targets in the Slavyansky Kurort microdistrict. As a result of the attack, the command post of the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, located in the administrative buildings of the medical complex, was destroyed.

Coordinates: 48.8766003, 37.6379066

Recorded results of the strike

Command and communications center and fire control
• Two communications servers with Harris RF-7800I kits , which provided encrypted data transmission to the group's headquarters, were destroyed. • Artillery fire coordination systems with ASCA (Artillery Systems Cooperation Activities) automated workstations , which were used to assign targets and adjust strikes,
were completely disabled . • Two R&S M3TR mobile radio stations used to coordinate the actions of the forward groups were destroyed. Equipment and machinery • An armored Husky TSV vehicle used to transport officers and work in high-threat areas was destroyed. • An Iveco EuroCargo truck , which supplied the command post with supplies and transported equipment, was disabled . • Two mobile headquarters stations based on a Mercedes Sprinter , equipped with Thales VesseLINK satellite communications systems , were damaged . Personnel losses • At least 8 Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen were killed , including brigade headquarters officers responsible for operational control. • At least 5 servicemen who were in the building at the time of the strike were wounded. As expected, official reports from local authorities ignore the presence of military facilities in the affected area. Additional infrastructure damage was recorded: • Lithotripsy and endourology clinic (Kostyurina Street) — roof damaged, double-glazed windows broken. • Cafe "Topolyok" (Pavlova Street) - the facade is partially destroyed, the summer terrace is destroyed. @don_partizan

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******
Ukraine - Minerals Deal Agreement, Lavrov Rejects Peacekeepers, War Destined To Become Trump's Vietnam

The New York Times reports (archived) that "Ukraine has agreed to turn over the revenue from some of its mineral resources to the United States".

Ukraine will get nothing of value in return for it. The (former) Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski is expected to visit the White House of Friday to submit to the extraordinary extortion of his country.

The deal is imposed indentured servitude at scale:

a form of labor in which a person is contracted to work without salary for a specific number of years. The contract called an "indenture", may be entered voluntarily for a prepaid lump sum, as payment for some good or service (e.g. travel), purported eventual compensation, or debt repayment. An indenture may also be imposed involuntarily as a judicial punishment. The practice has been compared to the similar institution of slavery, although there are differences.

Ukraine is expected to get nothing, except more war, from this agreement. As Ted Snider describes it:

Normally, it is the country that defeated you in war, and not the country that defended you, that pillages you after the war. Unfortunately for Ukraine, its biggest military defender is set to pillage its resources as the two countries have now signed a minerals agreement after Trump warned that a refusal to sign would have led to “a lot of problems” for Ukraine.
Many mistakes have been made in the war over Ukraine’s minerals: Zelensky may have made a mistake in his strategy, and Trump may be mistaken in facts.
...
[T]he ones who will suffer from the American pillaging of Ukraine will be the people of Ukraine. All of that revenue that will be exported out of the country is money that could now be spent on defense and later spent on rebuilding the tattered economy and reconstructing the shattered nation.


Ukrainian media just published the full text of the agreement (in Russian/Ukrainian). Strana summarizes it as follows (machine translation):

The main thing that becomes clear from the published draft agreement:

It does not guarantee the security of Ukraine from the United States, as Vladimir Zelensky insisted. Security guarantees are mentioned only once: "The United States Government supports Ukraine's efforts to obtain the security guarantees necessary to create a lasting peace." That is, it is not about providing security guarantees, but about "supporting Ukraine's efforts" to obtain them. Moreover, the logic of the text implies that these guarantees should be given by someone other than the United States, otherwise it would look strange that Washington supports efforts to obtain guarantees from itself.
The text does not specify who and how will manage the work of the fund, which will receive funds from revenues from the development of Ukrainian deposits. As stated, this will be written out in a separate agreement on the fund, which has not yet been prepared and must be ratified by the parliament. However, it is stipulated that the management will be joint, as well as the content, and "the powers of representatives of the US government in the decision-making process will be within the limits permitted by the current legislation of the United States." That is, the American fund managers will operate in their own jurisdiction, and not in the Ukrainian one.
The Fund will receive income from the future monetization of all relevant natural resource assets that are state-owned by Ukraine-regardless of whether they are directly or indirectly owned by the state. It is stipulated that we are not talking about income from already operating enterprises.
Ukraine will "contribute to the fund 50% of all proceeds received from the future monetization of all relevant natural resource assets," no matter what ownership they are. The United States will also contribute.
Contributions made to the fund will be reinvested in Ukraine at least once a year. The amount of reinvestment is not specified. Its procedure will be defined in the future agreement on the fund.


There are so many vague points in the agreement that it is hard to evaluate its consequences.

I find it difficult to imagine that any Ukrainian parliament or its fascists 'nationalists' will agree to it:

In their eagerness to align with Western powers, Ukrainian officials are effectively endorsing policies that undermine the nation’s autonomy. Rather than pursuing an independent economic strategy, Ukraine continues to adopt arrangements that leave it vulnerable to external western manipulation.
...
This deal highlights the dangers of Ukraine’s continued reliance on Western aid. True national strength and independence cannot be achieved through mechanisms that strip away a country’s natural wealth and leave it perpetually indebted to external powers.


It is also doubtful that the agreement will withstand legal challenges. There are serious rumors that Zelenski had already sold Ukraine's minerals to Britain.

In other news the Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Lavrov has (again) rejected the stationing of any European 'peacekeepers' in Ukraine:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Moscow could not consider "any options" for European peacekeepers being sent to Ukraine and that the idea was aimed at fuelling the conflict and making it harder to de-escalate.

President Macron of France and Prime Minister Starmer of Great Britain have said that they were willing to deploy their forces in Ukraine. Both however have asked for U.S. backing which the Trump administration is unlike to offer. Russia will in any case be hostile to it:

Lavrov, who has previously called the proposal "unacceptable," set out Moscow's objections to any deployment in some of the strongest terms yet, removing any doubt about the matter after Trump's suggestion that Putin had come round to the idea.
"We cannot consider any options" when it comes to European peacekeepers, he said during a visit to Qatar.


By pressing for the agreement, instead of taking the Russian offer for access to minerals, Trump has committed himself to continue the war in Ukraine.

Michael Tracey @mtracey - 23:39 UTC · Feb 25, 2025
After Ukraine agrees to the mineral "deal," Trump says in return Ukraine receives "the right to fight on." He boasts that he was the one who first gave Javelins to Ukraine, which wiped out a lot of Russian tanks. He says US weapons could continue to flow to Ukraine "for awhile"
Embedded video


It will lead to the failure of his peace initiative.

The war Ukraine is now destined to become Trump's Vietnam.

---
This is a Moon of Alabama donation week. Please help to keep this blog going.
Posted by b on February 26, 2025 at 14:41 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/02/u ... .html#more

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Talk of Peacekeeping Troops in Ukraine is Empty Talk: Lavrov

Image
Russian FM Sergey Lavrov, Feb. 26, 2025. X/ @cheguwera


February 26, 2025 Hour: 8:32 am

‘It is important to eliminate the root causes of the conflict, which are not due to the absence of peacekeeping troops,’ he said.

On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov criticized the proposals to deploy Western troops in Ukraine.

“Talks about deploying certain peacekeeping troops are empty words,” he said, accusing the European Union of wanting to further escalate the war in Ukraine and opposing a peaceful solution.

“The approach promoted by the EU, especially by France and England, aims to keep fueling the conflict and stop any attempt to calm it,” Lavrov stated.

The Russian minister alluded to statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, suggesting that Russia might accept peacekeeping troops in Ukraine. He emphasized that no one had consulted Moscow on the matter and that Russia strongly opposes such a measure.

🚨🇺🇸🇺🇦UKRAINE WAR TO CONTINUE IN RETURN FOR MINERALS

We went from ‘peace within 24 hours’ to ‘truce in a few weeks’ and now they are allowed to keep fighting for minerals.

So much for “no war wars”

Trump lied.
pic.twitter.com/hY0CCO1qET

— ADAM (@AdameMedia) February 26, 2025


Regarding the meeting between Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron, Lavrov called France’s proposal—to deploy peacekeeping troops in Ukraine and only later discuss the territorial issue—”deceptive,” arguing that Moscow cannot accept an agreement “whose sole purpose is to rearm Ukraine.”

“It is important to eliminate the root causes of the conflict, which are not due to the absence of peacekeeping troops, but rather Ukraine’s attraction to NATO, aimed at developing its territory to create a military infrastructure directed against Russia and undermining the rights of Russians and Russian speakers,” he added.

For the Russian minister, the issue goes beyond Russia’s current territorial claims, as “whatever remains of Ukraine must also be freed from racist laws.”

https://www.telesurenglish.net/talk-of- ... lk-lavrov/

France Insists on the Entry of Peacekeeping Troops Into Ukraine

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Possible location of Western peacekeepers in Ukraine. X/ @front_ukrainian


February 26, 2025 Hour: 9:08 am
‘Trump has agreed that the Europeans can guarantee the peace agreement once it is reached,’ FM Barrot said.

France believes it achieved “three very important results” during President Emmanuel Macron’s meeting with Donald Trump regarding future peace negotiations on Ukraine, particularly the prospect of the U.S. president convincing Russia to accept the principle of deploying peacekeeping troops.

“This is a shift we have been hoping for over the past ten years,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot emphasized on Wednesday. In an interview with the France 2 channel, he recalled that, until now, Russian President Vladimir Putin had rejected the idea of Western troops being present in Ukraine.

“Trump has agreed that the Europeans can guarantee the peace agreement once it is reached, that these guarantees can materialize in military capabilities in Ukraine, and that the United States can support this effort,” Barrot said, referring to Macron’s visit to Washington on Monday.

For the head of French diplomacy, securing these guarantees for Ukraine through the presence of peacekeeping troops—a scenario that France and the United Kingdom have been working on together—is “fundamental,” given that Russia violated the 2014 Minsk agreements, which lacked such guarantees.

🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦 "Peacekeeping" in Ukraine = Western troops in Ukraine

It means a defacto freeze, rearming, inevitable restarting of the conflict = Minsk 3.0 on steroids.

This lines up with Secretary Hegseth's comments in Brussels and Neo-Con plans to freeze the conflict and create a… pic.twitter.com/EsuelqF7Em

— Brian Berletic (@BrianJBerletic) February 26, 2025


When asked whether Washington will definitely support this deployment, Barrot responded that “in any case, the U.S. will provide support, and in any case, the presence of military capabilities is something Russia has always rejected.” That is why he considers it particularly significant that Trump has stated that if he brings Putin to the negotiating table, Russia will accept the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine.

The other two “results” that Macron, in Barrot’s view, achieved in Washington were Volodymyr Zelensky’s upcoming visit to the U.S. to meet with Trump and the fact that the U.S. president has “distinguished between a truce, a ceasefire, and a lasting peace.”

On Wednesday, Macron held a videoconference with European Union leaders to brief them on his meeting with Trump. This virtual meeting takes place ahead of the special summit addressing the Ukrainian crisis, scheduled for March 6 in Brussels.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/france-i ... o-ukraine/

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Zelensky now with only the dictatorship in London to support him

Martin Jay

February 26, 2025

We are living in unprecedented times of sensational stupidity and perhaps ignorance from politicians which we have never seen before.

What is the definition of a ‘dictator’? In the days that followed Trump’s social media post calling President Zelensky one, British media seized upon the subject and ran with it for days. Various public figures were asked whether Trump was right to use the word and whether they believed Zelensky was actually one. Two figures from the right, Nigel Farage and Liz Truss both said they thought Trump was both wrong to call him one and that in fact he wasn’t one.

This remarkable endearment for Zelensky is really the core of the problem in the west in particular the UK, where its leader Sir Keir Starmer declared that he would be ready to send British troops to Ukraine – a suggestion which was quickly shot down by the elites of Germany and France as preposterous.

It’s rare that the giants of the EU put the British government in its place on world affairs but we are living in unprecedented times of sensational stupidity and perhaps ignorance from politicians which we have never seen before.

Farage’s views on the Middle East tell us he is both ignorant of what is happening there and doesn’t have any advisors covering the region. But his views on Ukraine are even more shockingly deranged. Zelensky is a leader who has shut down anything which resembles an ‘opposition’ both politically and media, he has conglomerated all TV stations into one state-owned entity so as to shut down even the slightest criticism or accountability of his own actions, he has had the few dissident voices arrested and thrown into prison, with some predicting that there are thousands of journalists and media workers. Add to that it is rapidly emerging that the level of corruption and embezzlement linked directly to Zelensky is on a scale that even hard line critics in the West could not have even imagined.

In my own investigation in October 2023, where a very angry Ben Wallace insulted me in a WhatsApp interview before blocking me, I outline how the original, more sensational claim that only about a third of all military equipment sent to Ukraine was actually making it to the battlefield was in fact realistic. This analogy was bandied about for some time and was dismissed by Wallace and others like Alecia Kearns MP as nonsense and yet turned out to be more than just realistic but likely. That is to say that 66 percent of what was being sent to Ukraine was being sold on the black market in Libya making Zelensky and his close circle billionaires.

In recent weeks now mainstream journalists and politicians are talking about the arms scandal and it is only a matter of time before we shall see the realities of this. The British government have always turned a blind eye to it, both in Ukraine and further afield. It would cost them nothing to do a study in the Sahel to evaluate how much of the equipment there funding terrorism is coming from the arms bazaars of Tripoli where all of this kit is ending up. I suggested to Wallace that his own government at the time should send some investigators there (Libya) to look at what’s available. I was more or less told to go there myself and do the job for them.

But Zelenksy support structure for so long has been that of a dictator, in particular media. The hundreds of media outlets in Ukraine which were receiving USAID funding is extensive, not to mention the hundreds of civil servants which support him being on the same payroll. If that doesn’t shock Farage and Truss, then consider the same slush fund which paid out around a 100 million dollars to movie stars to go and visit him and fake their adulation, all for the purposes of cheating the humble U.S. taxpayer by raising his profile.

Who could forget Sean Penn giving him his own Oscar, or Ben Stiller chilling with the Ukrainian leader and making small talk? Angelina Jolie is even reported to have been paid 20 million dollars to meet with him but didn’t even manage that and simply mooched about a but in the country before jetting back to the U.S. Of course, the celebrities all dismiss these claims, through the same left-wing woke press which is part of their extended political family. But the question we should be asking ourselves is simply this: if they were not paid, then why won’t they show up now and show support at the precise moment when Zelensky needs it the most? Given that these celebrities supported Biden and are Democrats, this would be the most logical thing for them to do. In reality, the wall of silence is what we see.

Dictators don’t stand over their hired killers and watch their victims in their final moments like Idi Amin did. In reality, they only indicate and hint to the thugs on their payroll what she should do to fix problems. Does Farage and Truss actually believe that dissidents are not rounded up and thrown into jail where they are tortured and in some cases murdered? Now that the vultures are circling over Zelensky and many are wondering how many days in office he has left, more reports are emerging with details of such cases. The story of Gonzalo Lira, the American Chilean blogger whose vlogs were often well-informed and threw a very poor spotlight on Zelensky is a very sad one as he was brutally tortured while in prison and finally died. If the Zelensky cabal can do this to an American citizen, perhaps Farage and Truss will not be too surprised when in the coming weeks we will have the same Damascus prison media moment where it transpires that there are certainly hundreds, possibly thousands of journalists, commentators and political rivals in Ukraine’s prisons.

The debate, if we can call it that in the UK, over whether Zelensky is a dictator or now is a remedial one at best as it misses the point. In Britain, during the same period a man was imprisoned for posting a social media comment about a Labour official while a granny was visited by two plain clothes cops about her mere criticism of a Labour councilor’s conduct. Plain clothed detectives!

Britain has descended rapidly into a police state with Starmer as its dictator. The high ground we once had where we scolded China for arresting protestors has now been kicked away from under our feet. We have become China. Britain’s police now cannot deal with crime but prefer being the ‘Thought Police’ and threatening old biddies.

And so the talk about what is a dictator is rather fatuous if not incongruent given that those doing it are part of an elite which only claim to cherish free speech but in fact loath it. Farage cannot be taken seriously on Ukraine but his comments do steer the bumble hack towards darker questions. Who is funding him? And is his own dream of being a PM in the UK going to merely continue the present dictatorship which silent anyone who questions him? His reputation of being thin-skinned and kicking out of his party anyone who questions his ideas is already established. His own repugnance of British media also is well known. Previously in Brussels, his decision led to the closure of the only free speech, anti corruption magazine going, which he was always fearful of exposing his own infidelity while an MEP. And as for Truss, the most inept prime minister Britain has ever had in its long history, whose dictator-like style while in office crashed the economy? How should we interpret her support for Zelenksy? Do both Farage and Truss admire this dictator? The problem is not with the word ‘dictator’, it is more about the people who use it for their own purposes. It is not important whether Zelensky is one or not, rather than he is not a dictator who is servile to Trump and his cabal. Unlike Farage, Zelensky is not our kind of dictator.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... pport-him/

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Ukraine Should Forget About NATO
February 27, 11:03

Image

The main messages of Trump's latest speeches.

1. Ukraine will have to pay one way or another for the assistance already provided. The United States is counting on signing an agreement on the transfer of mineral resources.
2. Trump does not want to spend money on Ukraine. The supplies announced under Biden continue. There are allegedly no new supplies.
3. Ukraine should forget about NATO. NATO is the reason for the war in Ukraine. On this issue, Putin's and Trump's assessments coincided 100%.
4. The United States will not provide security guarantees to Ukraine. Europe should do this if it wants. The same applies to the issue of "introducing peacekeepers", which Russia is against.
5. Europe is obliged to take more care of its own defense and increase spending on it, without shifting all the costs to the United States. 2% is no longer enough. Give 3-5% of GDP on defense.
6. Trump will start a trade war with Europe, starting with 25% duties on a number of European goods. According to Trump, the EU has been robbing the United States since its formation and this must be stopped.

Against this background, Callas flew to Washington to urgently talk to Rubio. The State Department gave her a hard time, telling her after her arrival that the head of the State Department did not want to talk to her. He could have said this before the visit, but it was decided to organize a demonstrative humiliation of the "head of European diplomacy." The US knows how to do that.

https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonel ... 65_900.jpg

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Feb 28, 2025 12:52 pm

The future of war and peace
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 28/02/2025

Image

“The Russian Federation’s goals have not changed, they have not abandoned them and they speak about them publicly,” Kirill Budanov said yesterday in an interview with Ukrinform , in which he stated what the Russian Federation’s expectations were in February 2022 and what remains of them now. Information that the head of military intelligence cannot have access to, but whose disinformation is presented by the Ukrainian media as a fact that does not require verification. It should also not be noted that the dissemination of false information and self-serving interpretations is an important part of his job. In this regard, Budanov adheres to the official Western discourse according to which the war is caused by Russian imperialism, the desire to reunify the Soviet Union and that the goal was to absorb and occupy all of Ukraine in order to make the Ukrainian nation disappear, a capture that the Kremlin hoped to accomplish in three days, something that Moscow never said and that has always been part of British propaganda.

Budanov also allows himself to comment on the Russian economic situation. “Problems have already appeared, but we must not be fooled. Even according to official data, 41% of the budget is for the defence budget. These are abnormal figures, and almost all social, medical and educational programmes have been cut to meet this budget… In other words, the negative financial and economic impact on the Russian Federation is already palpable,” he says, without recalling that the war accounts for more than 50% of Ukraine’s budget, whose ability to continue financing its army and state depends on foreign subsidies. But despite the fact that the analysis of the head of Ukrainian disinformation is guilty of confusing wishes with facts in order to exaggerate the difficulties of others as much as possible while ignoring its own – on which depends whether the allies continue to believe in Ukraine and continue to finance its military effort – his speech is more realistic than some articles that can still be read in the Western press. “Donald Trump can put an end to Vladimir Putin’s rule,” wrote Time magazine, for example, before Donald Trump shifted his strategy from peace through force to trying to lure Russia into negotiations by offering incentives. “Russia is in real trouble as its economy implodes and Putin is destroying Russia,” he added, observing an implosion that does not exist. “I repeat: as long as there is oil, gas, metal, precious metals and stones, they will be balanced until then,” Budanov admits.

“Their supreme leader says that the goals of the special military operation must be achieved,” the head of Ukrainian intelligence continues, adding falsely that “they said it right: ‘kyiv in three days’ became the third anniversary of a full-scale invasion. So obviously, as they say, something ‘went wrong.’ How to assess its state now? The professional army was wiped out in the period somewhere up to 2023, then Russia is fighting on mobilization. Although technically they are all contract soldiers, but the approach is the same, i.e. you take one person, a maximum of two weeks and to the front. They fight purely in numbers.” Given the difficulties Ukraine is experiencing in replenishing its ranks, it would be possible to ask Budanov what happened to the Ukrainian army that began the defense after the Russian invasion, how the country is forcibly recruiting men who try to resist – some of them to death, as could be seen this week in a video posted on the networks – and how much training time the new soldiers receive. A report published a few weeks ago by The New York Times shows the advanced age of the soldiers, sometimes in far from optimal physical condition and who are sent to the front with little training. Over the past three years, there have been many statements by Ukrainian commanders drawing attention to the low life expectancy of soldiers mobilized in the trenches of the Donbass front.

Budanov’s narrative, like that of Ukraine and its European allies, is a double standard. Russia is suffering unsustainable casualties, its soldiers are untrained and its economy is suffering increasingly, but at the same time military spending must be increased far beyond the 2% of GDP that NATO has so far demanded. “NATO spends $1.305 trillion annually on its military, while Russia spends $84 trillion annually. As in the Cold War, the Russian military threat is being massively and deliberately exaggerated. We are being misled,” wrote British politician Mark Seddon this week, noting that the United Kingdom, in peace, spends almost the same amount on defence as the Russian Federation at war. The exaggeration of the danger of a Russian invasion of NATO countries has come in recent months from the secret services of the Baltic and Nordic countries, sometimes presenting only hypothetical scenarios that the media have published as official declarations of Russian intent – ​​a useful argument for consolidating the idea of ​​the need to double military spending at the cost of the same cuts that Budanov accuses Russia of making and that Ukraine has actively used since 2014.

Faced with the threat of peace, which is still only relative, as negotiations have not even begun and its main promoter, Donald Trump, has even left the door open to the possibility of no agreement, Ukraine is returning to its usual arguments for clinging to the status quo . And here, too, we can clearly see the double discourse of imminent victory or the collapse of civilization in the face of the Russian invasion of Europe.

“The degradation of the Russian army’s arsenal is visible both from space and through a scope. Satellite images reveal the depletion of what were once bottomless Soviet-era arsenals. Through the scope of Ukrainian forces, one can see electric scooters, motorcycles, civilian cars instead of armored vehicles, and even donkeys forming the new backbone of enemy logistics. Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar are holding firm. Our bridgehead in the Kursk region is crushing enemy infantry. Nowhere along the thousand-kilometer front line does the enemy’s meager advance threaten to collapse Ukraine’s defense,” wrote Mikhail Podolyak in a text in which any resemblance to reality is purely coincidental. The obvious objective is to insist on the imminent Russian collapse in order to demand the continuation of the war until final victory, which requires the maintenance of the flow of weapons, ammunition, financing and intelligence, primarily from the United States.

That is Volodymyr Zelensky's aim both in negotiating the mineral extraction agreement and in his visit to Washington today. The Ukrainian president has expressed pride in having achieved his demand that the document contain an article dedicated to security guarantees. Ensuring that the flow of material and the American presence extend beyond a hypothetical peace agreement is the Ukrainian president's main obsession today. The security guarantees in the form of a peace mission that Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have presented to Donald Trump during their visits to the White House this week are not enough for Zelensky.

Although the weaker side of an unequal relationship, Ukraine has made it clear that its main negotiation will not be with Russia, but with the United States. “There will be no ceasefire without security guarantees,” Volodymyr Zelensky declared on Wednesday. Hours earlier, Sergey Lavrov had expressed himself in similar terms. The desire to avoid a ceasefire that would allow the other side to strengthen itself and restart the war is one of the few aspects on which kyiv, Moscow and Washington agree. Hence, ensuring military supplies remains Ukraine’s priority, which unlike Russia, needs its allies to obtain the necessary weapons.

“If we don’t have this, nothing will work. I need to understand what will happen to us, to our families tomorrow, and what their position is. We don’t just need money deals – we are trying to survive. My first question is: will the US stop military aid?” said a visibly upset Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday evening. Donald Trump has already declared that he is not ready to offer “many more security guarantees”, which he intends to leave to European countries. The wording of Article 10 of the mineral extraction agreement, Ukraine’s main success in getting mention of security guarantees, is sufficient for Zelensky to continue negotiating, but it makes clear the initial intentions.

The agreement is only a framework, with the most important details still to be negotiated (primarily, how Ukraine will be able to access the money that goes into this common fund with the United States and what implications this will have in terms of the future presence of the United States in the country), and its tenth article is a good example of this. “The United States Government supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain the security guarantees necessary to establish lasting peace. The participants will seek to determine the measures necessary to protect mutual investments, as defined in the Fund agreement,” it states, with wording that makes it clear that Washington does not want to commit to offering security guarantees to Ukraine, although, as NBC had already reported , it does seem open to taking charge of the security of its investments.

Yesterday, The Economist reported that Volodymyr Zelensky insists that he will not sign the deal unless it comes with security guarantees from the United States. The future of war and peace depends on this, judging by Ukraine's position. And perhaps also on the fine print of the agreement on mineral extraction in Ukraine.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/02/28/el-fu ... de-la-paz/

Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
⚡️Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (from 22 to 28 February 2025)

From 22 to 28 February, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out nine group strikes with air-launched precision weapons and attack unmanned aerial vehicles, which hit energy facilities that supported the operation of enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, the infrastructure of military airfields and military fuel depots.

In addition, workshops for the production and storage sites of attack unmanned aerial vehicles, training sites for drone operators, as well as temporary deployment points of Ukrainian armed formations and foreign mercenaries were hit.

- During the week, units of the North group of forces continued to destroy formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region.

During the offensive, the settlements of Pogrebki, Orlovka, Nikolsky and Novaya Sorochina were liberated.

Over the past week, in the area of ​​responsibility of the North group of forces, the enemy's losses amounted to over 1,960 servicemen, 11 tanks, 156 armored combat vehicles and 157 cars.
Two multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles were destroyed, including the American MLRS multiple launch rocket system, 40 field artillery guns, including the Paladin self-propelled artillery unit and the M777 howitzer made in the USA, three anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight electronic warfare stations and 12 ammunition depots.

— As a result of the active actions of the units of the West group of forces, the settlements of Novolyubovka in the Luhansk People's Republic and Topoli in the Kharkiv region were liberated.

The enemy lost over 1,340 servicemen, a tank, 13 armored combat vehicles, including four M113 armored personnel carriers made in the USA, 33 vehicles, 34 field artillery pieces, including 16 made in NATO countries, 13 electronic warfare stations and 13 ammunition depots.

— Units of the Southern Group of Forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses and liberated the village of Ulakly in the Donetsk People's Republic.

Over the past week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost over 1,210 servicemen, two tanks, nine armored combat vehicles, 24 vehicles, 21 field artillery pieces, seven ammunition depots and five electronic and counter-battery warfare stations in this area.

— Units of the Center Group of Forces have decisively improved their tactical situation and completed the liberation of the village of Novoandriyevka in the Donetsk People's Republic.

The losses of the Ukrainian armed forces amounted to over 2,340 servicemen, five tanks, including three Leopard tanks made in Germany, 32 combat armored vehicles, including five of Western manufacture, 22 automobiles and 25 field artillery pieces.

— Units of the Vostok group of forces have taken up more advantageous lines and positions. They have defeated formations of a tank, two mechanized, airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade and three territorial defense brigades.

The enemy has lost over 1,180 servicemen, two tanks, including a Leopard tank made in Germany, 10 armored combat vehicles and 21 cars. 22 field artillery pieces have been destroyed, including three 155-mm self-propelled artillery mounts made in NATO countries, as well as three ammunition depots.

— Units of the Dnepr group of forces have improved their position along the forward edge. They have defeated the manpower and equipment of four mechanized, a mountain assault brigades, five coastal defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a territorial defense brigade.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 650 servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, 44 automobiles, seven field artillery guns, seven ammunition depots, and 11 electronic and counter-battery warfare stations.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

ON THE UKRAINE BATTLEFIELD WHO DARES, WINS – WHO LEADS, LOSES

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

It’s called the selfish herd reflex.

In experiments with minnows, biologists have discovered that after removing the brain of a single minnow and dropping him back into the water, the brainless fish will move erratically, unable to sense the direction of his shoal, but drawing the other minnows to follow him instead. The reason for this, ichthy neurologists believe, is that individual minnows are safer from predatory fish attacks if they stick together in large shoals. The herd reflex is dominant because it’s protective; the brainlessness of the leader doesn’t matter.

French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have realized that in their war with Russia, they are safer to follow President Donald Trump, whether he has a brain or not.

Macron demonstrated this realization in the Oval Office on Monday by reassuring hand and leg gestures with Trump, guiding him in the direction of French warfighting strategy while Trump made remarks which appeared to mean the opposite. Macron also realized that whatever Trump says will be corrected, contradicted, then countermanded by the officials he has appointed for their loyalty in following him.

Trump can sense loyalty, but because he cannot read words, he does not understand that the text of the $390 billion payback minerals agreement with the Ukraine he voiced repeatedly in front of Macron has now disappeared on the paper his officials have agreed with the Ukraine

Listen to the podcast by clicking here at Minute 31:00.
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Source: https://gradio.substack.com/p/gorilla-r ... imitri-eda

For the text of the US-Ukrainian minerals agreement in the Gorilla Radio discussion, click to read the Ukrainian government’s leaked version here.
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/ ... 6/7205922/

The military security guarantees which the Ukrainians have sought from Trump can be found at Article 5, which declares that “the Participants [the US Government, the Ukraine Government] reserve the right to take such action as necessary to protect and maximize the value of their economic interests in the Fund”; and Article 10: “Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments, as defined in the Fund Agreement.”

Article 8 implies that if Russia’s end-of-war terms impose a demilitarized zone and other restrictions on the Ukrainian territory remaining after armistice or capitulation, the US has already agreed to evade them: “The Fund Agreement will pay particular attention to the control mechanisms that make it impossible to weaken, violate or circumvent sanctions and other restrictive measures.”

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The Ukraine Government’s text hints that the Kiev regime has outwitted Scott Bessent, the newly appointed US Treasury Secretary, in redrafting the original proposals he presented in Kiev last week. For analysis of the text, click to read.

The background record for Trump’s introduction, alongside his appointee, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik, of a “gold card” for wealthy foreigners to bribe their way into US residency and citizenship, can be followed here. Reuters asked if Russian oligarchs would qualify for the gold cards: “Yeah, possibly,” Trump replied. “Hey. I know some Russian oligarchs that are very nice people.”

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The New York Post explains how the proposed change in the EB-5 investment visa programme raises “corruption concern”.

THE TRUMP LOYALISTS WHO ARE CAREER WARFIGHTERS AGAINST RUSSIA

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Left to right: Louis Bono, Assistant Secretary of State for Europe & the UK; Elbridge Colby, nominee to be Under Secretary of Defense; Sebastian Gorka, Deputy National Security Advisor; Thomas Williams, Associate Director for Defense at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB); and Amaryllis Fox Kennedy, Associate Director for Intelligence, OMB.

For the warfighting careers of the new Office of Management and Budget (OMB) appointees, click to read what the White House has disclosed.

Fox Kennedy, married to Robert Kennedy Jr’s son, claims to have spent a career in covert CIA operations, although she has also been publicly accused of faking the details. With her father-in-law’s lobbying, she was a candidate to be Trump’s appointee as deputy director of the CIA but lost out to a higher ranking lawyer, Michael Ellis. At OMB, Fox Kennedy will control the CIA budget.

For the introduction to this broadcast, for access to the 20-year Gorilla Radio archive, and for Chris Cook’s blog, click here and here.

https://johnhelmer.net/on-the-ukraine-b ... more-91174

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Trump Will End His Option of Walking Away from Project Ukraine with His Minerals Deal
Posted on February 26, 2025 by Yves Smith

WE TOLD YOU SO. From a February 15 post:

Most commentators took the Trump talk of owning or getting rights to Ukraine’s minerals to be bluster. Yours truly remarked otherwise, that this looked like a way for Trump to justify and get funding for a continued US participation, even if at a lower level than under Biden, by presenting it as a loan. This would make it the bastard cousin of the Ursuala von der Leyen plan to issue bonds against Russian frozen assets to which it does not have good title.

Admittedly, the sketchy-seeming minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine, widely reported in Western media, has yet to be consummated (more on that soon). But as its contours emerge, other commentators are reaching the same conclusion that we did from the get-go: that it would not just provide Trump with a pretext to continue funding the war, but having an economic interest in Ukraine’s survival would give the Administration a reason to keep Ukraine fighting. Crudely speaking, the more territory the Ukraine state can hold, the more the US can loot develop.

More pointedly:

🚨🇺🇸🇺🇦UKRAINE WAR TO CONTINUE IN RETURN FOR MINERALS

We went from ‘peace within 24 hours’ to ‘truce in a few weeks’ and now they are allowed to keep fighting for minerals.

So much for “no war wars”

Trump lied.


In keeping, notice the title on the Financial Times map below. As we’ll see, the related article makes clear the pact does not include a formal military commitment, but Trump’s patter and the change in US incentives, make it hard to think that the US will stop supplying Ukraine with arms and funds.

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As an aside, it’s odd to see the Financial Times dignify the notion that Ukraine has any meaningful rare earths deposits. An amusing debunking:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1894514608905306542

Regardless, it’s worth noting that we were not alone in noticing Boris Johnson’s unseemly enthusiasm for this agreement:

Boris Johnson endorses the Trump/Ukraine minerals deal, comparing it to lend-lease for Britain in WWII. He says it will ensure long-term US funding of Ukraine, and contains provisions Putin will never accept. Why do the most hardcore Ukraine war supporters love this deal so much?

As the pink paper explains, the agreement is still not in final form and would need to be ratified by Ukraine’s Rada. The Financial Times also ventures that it similarly should be approved by a 2/3 vote of the Senate, but that does not seem to be in the cards. From the Financial Times:

Although the text lacks explicit security guarantees, the officials argued they had negotiated far more favourable terms and depicted the deal as a way of broadening the relationship with the US to shore up Ukraine’s prospects after three years of war.

“The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it’s part of a bigger picture,” Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and justice minister who has led the negotiations, told the Financial Times on Tuesday….

The final version of the agreement, dated February 25 and seen by the FT, would establish a fund into which Ukraine would contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the “future monetisation” of state-owned mineral resources, including oil and gas, and associated logistics. The fund would also be able to invest in projects in Ukraine.

Ukraine has large underground deposits of critical minerals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt, titanium and rare earths such as scandium, that are essential for an array of industries from defence to electric vehicles.

The agreement excludes mineral resources that already contribute to Ukrainian government coffers, meaning it would not cover the existing activities of Naftogaz or Ukrnafta, Ukraine’s largest gas and oil producers.

However, it omits any reference to US security guarantees, which Kyiv had originally insisted on in return for agreeing to the deal.

It also leaves crucial questions such as the size of the US stake in the fund and the terms of “joint ownership” deals to be thrashed out in follow-up agreements.

Yours truly is old fashioned. An agreement with key terms still unsettled and to be hashed out later isn’t “final” in any normal sense. This seems awfully Japanese: have a vague agreement and keep arguing about what it means. But the Japanese have extremely strong cultural norms and so not as many things need to be spelled out as in a Western contract. But the effect of a Japanese-style deal and its continued wrangling is the more powerful partner has the upper hand.

This tweet, if you click through, purports to have the full text of the pact. It’s mighty hand-wavey and in my reading, does call for an awful lot to be resolved in yet-to-be-hammered agreements that one would, in the normal course of events, to be part of the main deal.

[The full text of the "Minerals Deal" between Ukraine and the United States:

1. The Governments of Ukraine and the United States of America, with the aim of achieving lasting peace in Ukraine, intend to establish a Reconstruction Investment Fund (Fund), partnering in the Fund… Show more
8:10 AM · Feb 26, 2025


You can start at the top and see how much this is NOT like any sort of serious financial arrangement:

The Governments of Ukraine and the United States of America, with the aim of achieving lasting peace in Ukraine, intend to establish a Reconstruction Investment Fund (Fund), partnering in the Fund through joint ownership, to be further defined in the Fund Agreement. Joint ownership will take into consideration the actual contributions of the Participants as defined in Sections 3 and 4.

But note this section:

The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace. Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments, as defined in the Fund Agreement.

Now in fairness, this document is so loosey-goosey that Trump could later make all sorts of excuses why he walked away, not that Trump has ever been big on consistency. But he made so much noise about what a great deal this agreement was that he is pretty certain to show commitment to it for at least a while….which means more arms and money, which mean the Ukraine war has now become Trump’s war.

But Moon of Alabama contends it won’t get done:

I find it difficult to imagine that any Ukrainian parliament or its fascists ‘nationalists’ will agree to it:

In their eagerness to align with Western powers, Ukrainian officials are effectively endorsing policies that undermine the nation’s autonomy. Rather than pursuing an independent economic strategy, Ukraine continues to adopt arrangements that leave it vulnerable to external western manipulation.

This deal highlights the dangers of Ukraine’s continued reliance on Western aid. True national strength and independence cannot be achieved through mechanisms that strip away a country’s natural wealth and leave it perpetually indebted to external powers.

It is also doubtful that the agreement will withstand legal challenges. There are serious rumors that Zelenski had already sold Ukraine’s minerals to Britain.


A fresh Wall Street Journal story (posted at 10:30 PM EST) says that Zelensky has not yet agreed to go to Washington on Friday, as some outlets had reported, because key details need to be settled. Zelensky is still angling for a firmer commitment of military support. From the Journal in Zelensky Says There’s a U.S. Minerals Deal but Many Details Are Unresolved:

Zelensky said he had been invited to the U.S. to meet with President Trump this week, but he wasn’t sure if he would go, and details of the visit are still being worked out…

Still, he emphasized that the future of the mineral-rights deal would depend on his broader conversations with Trump and the president’s commitment to helping Ukraine. Trump had previously said Zelensky would be in Washington to sign the deal on Friday…

He said he would have several questions for Trump whenever they meet, including whether the U.S. would cut off aid to Ukraine, and if so, whether Ukraine would be able to buy weapons from the U.S. He would also ask whether sanctions on Russia would be lifted, he said.

“We will draw conclusions after my dialogue with President Trump,” Zelensky said.


Since any UK agreement about the minerals was not ratified by the Rada, the Trump deal would clearly have a reasonable basis of being seen as valid (ex the wee problem of the mineral and other property rights in most cases already being owned by private parties), while the bizarre Starmer 100 year partnership was more a press release than anything binding.

Putin also happened to have a meeting about rare earths minerals in Russia and the importance of Russia advancing their development. That was followed by an interview with Putin’s favorite reporter, Pavel Zarubin. Despite the effort to prevent misunderstanding, there still seems to be a lot of misreading of what Putin said. From the Kremlin site:

Pavel Zarubin: Mr President, we have just watched your meeting on rare-earth metals. Forgive me, but I believe that right now, all journalists around the world are interested in rare-earth metals, although in a slightly different context. The United States, and I will put it mildly, is strongly urging Zelensky to sign an agreement with the US regarding these resources as payment for the aid Ukraine received from the former administration, the Biden administration. In your opinion, what are the prospects of such an agreement?

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: That has nothing to do with us. I do not have an opinion, nor do I even want to think about it. Of course, these resources should be evaluated – whether they exist, what is their amount, how much are they worth, and so on. But, again, that is not our concern.

Our concern is what we have just discussed during the meeting. Rare and rare-earth metals are crucial resources for modern industries. So far, we have not done enough in this area, and we need to do more. The purpose of the meeting today was to direct administrative resources to developing this sector in the initial phase.

By the way, we would be open to cooperation with our American partners – and when I say “partners” I mean not only administrative and government agencies but also private companies – as long as they show interest in working together.

It is important to emphasise that Russia possesses significantly – I want to stress this – significantly larger resources of this kind than Ukraine. Russia is one of the uncontested leaders when it comes to rare and rare-earth metal reserves. We have deposits in the north, in Murmansk, and in the Caucasus, in Kabardino-Balkaria, as well as in the Far East, in the Irkutsk Region, in Yakutia and Tuva. Developing these resources requires substantial capital investment. We would be happy to cooperate with any foreign partners, including American companies.

The same is true for the new territories: we are open to foreign partnerships. Our historical territories that have become part of the Russian Federation again also hold certain reserves. We are ready to work there with international partners, including Americans.


First, Putin is throwing down a marker. The Trump-Ukraine deal is of no concern because Russia views it as not binding on the four oblasts that Russia has incorporated into Russia. However, this would seem to suggest that if the war were to continue and Russia wound up annexing more territory, Putin might have to arm-wrestle with Trump over mineral rights in the additional land acquired. However, if the peace dealmaking fails (which yours truly has long deemed very probable) and Russia continues to roll through Ukraine, the US does not have the military means or the political will to do much about it. However, they could use Russia’s purported seizure of never-perfected Ukraine mineral rights as a justification to seize the US portion of the frozen $300 billion of Russian assets.

Second, as far as Putin saying Russia is open to partnerships, even with Americans, this is nothing new. Putin has continued to maintain that he is willing to resume economic relations with parties that have spurned Russia. Recall how many times he has said Russia still has pipelines to Europe and Russia is still willing to provide gas.

Some have read far more into “We are ready to work there with international partners…we are open to foreign partnerships” than Putin said. Some have bizarrely taken this to mean that Russia would sell the mineral rights. I am admittedly not an expert on oil or mining development schemes, but at a conceptual level, the owner of mineral rights has many ways to skin the cat. By way of analogy, the producer of a successful Broadway show is in the business of maximizing the value of his subsidiary rights, not just of the performances of the original production, but things like ad sales in programs, rights to other live productions (on the road, foreign language productions), live performances of songs, rights to produce and sell the original recorded songs, screen rights, even rights to reproduce original artwork. Trees & Trunks confirmed our take:

Putin about ownership vs. operations. This is the only wise way to deal with non-renewable natural resources. Natural resources should belong to the state = you and me. Most of the revenues should go to the state = you and me because once it is dug up from the ground and sent away, they never come back. No foreign entity should be allowed to own anything, not even in any indirect or derivative way. If foreign companies are good at something, maybe they could be useful for operations.

I visited an oil&gas conference in Turkmenistan where the hosts made that very clear to all foreign companies present. You get some crumbles but you will never own the cookie. The fellow delegation participants also agreed on that when we talked about that approach.


This tweet suggests Putin might have a more specific trade in mind:

🇷🇺‼️Putin's secret plan: What is behind his offer to America?!⁉️

In his recent interview, which resonated around the world, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered something that at first seemed like a surprise, but is actually part of a much broader and long-term strategy.…


Regardless, if I were Russia, between Trump making it more clear than ever that he can’t be believed (him insisting as late as Monday that the US was again meeting with Russia in Riyadh on Tuesday, when no such event was happening) and that he’s taking action inconsistent with wanting a quick settlement of the war, I would dig in even harder on slow-walking any talks. Russia’s best course of action remains prostrating Ukraine. Trump is actually making it easier for them to stay the course.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02 ... -deal.html

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Brief Frontline Summary for February 26, 2025

The Russian Armed Forces Continue to Deepen the Pocket Around Preobrazhenka. Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Feb 26, 2025

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In the Seversk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have cleared the settlement of Belogorovka. In the area of the chalk quarry, strikes are being carried out against a small remaining group of enemy forces (less than ten people) hiding in fortified positions and receiving supplies via drones. However, there is a possibility of an underground communication line.

Parts of the Zolotarevka Forest Preserve have come under the control of Russian army units. Fighting continues for positions in the forest belts and in the so-called "comb" area west of the chalk quarry.

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In the Pokrovsk direction, the fighting is primarily positional in nature, though in some areas the intensity is very high. In Udachnoe, clashes continue.

(There seems to be some new activity in Kotlino (Kotlyno/Kotlyne) where the Ukrainians are claiming to have pushed the RF back to the highway, but not across it. Russian sources confirm fighting is taking place for the location, but there's no confirmation either way.)

South of Nadezhdinka (Nadiivka), the Russian Armed Forces have secured positions in abandoned orchards and advanced along the forest belt north of Preobrazhenka. To the south of the latter, our units have fully occupied the settlement of Zaporozhye (fighting continues for the farms on its northern outskirts).

Thus, a pocket has formed around Preobrazhenka, which our military continues to deepen, maintaining attacks in the western direction and creating conditions for a subsequent advance passing through the western part of Preobrazhenka followed by the announcement of its liberation.

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In Konstantinopol, after the disorganized withdrawal of the 79th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the area of the settlements of Razliv and Bogatyr, which resulted in very high losses of personnel and equipment, only a few, poorly coordinated pockets of resistance remain. The complete liberation of Konstantinopol can be expected in the near future, which will influence the situation in the areas of Andreevka and Alekseevka.

In the Velikaya Novosyolka (Velyka Novosilka) sector, the Russian Armed Forces have advanced in the area of the settlement of Skudnoe. Fighting has begun for this settlement, and according to some reports, our fighters have managed to push the enemy out and have begun clearing operations.

Southwest of Skudnoe, Russian units are advancing along the forest belt toward the settlement of Burlatskoe, which they had previously approached from the northeast. This allows them to bypass the enemy fortifications from the rear. It will also enable pressure on the Ukrainian Armed Forces from multiple directions simultaneously, stretching their forces.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... bruary-159

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Ukraine Timeline Tells the Tale
February 25, 2025
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Without historical context, which is buried by corporate media, it’s impossible to understand Ukraine. Historians will tell the story, but journalists are cut short for trying to tell it now.

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May 18, 2015: Remains of an Eastern Orthodox church after shelling by the Ukrainian Army near Donetsk International Airport. Eastern Ukraine. (Mstyslav Chernov. CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)

By Joe Lauria
Special to Consortium News

The way to prevent the Ukraine war from being understood is to suppress its history.

A cartoon version has the conflict beginning on Feb. 24, 2022 when Vladimir Putin woke up that morning and decided to invade Ukraine.

There was no other cause, according to this version, other than unprovoked, Russian aggression against an innocent country.

Please use this short, historical guide to share with people who still flip through the funny pages trying to figure out what’s going on in Ukraine.

The mainstream account is like opening a novel in the middle of the book to read a random chapter as though it’s the beginning of the story.

Thirty years from now historians will write about the context of the Ukraine war: the coup, the attack on Donbass, NATO expansion, rejection of the Minsk Accords and Russian treaty proposals — without being called Putin puppets.

It will be the same way historians write of the Versailles Treaty as a cause of Nazism and WWII, without being called Nazi-sympathizers.

Providing context is taboo while the war continues in Ukraine, as it would have been during WWII. Context is paramount in journalism.

But journalists have to get with the program of war propaganda while a war goes on. Journalists are clearly not afforded these same liberties as historians. Long after the war, historians are free to sift through the facts.

THE UKRAINE TIMELINE

World War II— Ukrainian national fascists, led by Stepan Bandera, at first allied with the German Nazis, massacre more than a hundred thousands Jews and Poles.

1950s to 1990 – C.I.A. brought Ukrainian fascists to the U.S. and worked with them to undermine the Soviet Union in Ukraine, running sabotage and propaganda operations. Ukrainian fascist leader Mykola Lebed was taken to New York where he worked with the C.I.A. through at least the 1960s and was still useful to the C.I.A. until 1991, the year of Ukraine’s independence. The evidence is in a U.S. government report starting from page 82. Ukraine has thus been a staging ground for the U.S. to weaken and threaten Moscow for nearly 80 years.

November 1990: A year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Charter of Paris for a New Europe (also known as the Paris Charter) is adopted by the U.S., Europe and the Soviet Union. The charter is based on the Helsinki Accords and is updated in the 1999 Charter for European Security. These documents are the foundation of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. The OSCE charter says no country or bloc can preserve its own security at another country’s expense.

Dec. 25, 1991: Soviet Union collapses. Wall Street and Washington carpetbaggers move in during ensuing decade to asset-strip the country of formerly state-owned properties, enrich themselves, help give rise to oligarchs, and impoverish the Russian, Ukrainian and other former Soviet peoples.

1990s: U.S. reneges on promise to last Soviet leader Gorbachev not to expand NATO to Eastern Europe in exchange for a unified Germany. George Kennan, the leading U.S. government expert on the U.S.S.R., opposes expansion. Sen. Joe Biden, who supports NATO enlargement, predicts Russia will react hostilely to it.

1997 :: The only thing that could provoke a "vigorous and hostile" Russian response would be needless NATO Expansion Far East right till the border of Russia - Sen. Joe Biden

1997: Zbigniew Brzezinski, former U.S. national security adviser, in his 1997 book, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, writes:

“Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state.”

New Year’s Eve 1999: After eight years of U.S. and Wall Street dominance, Vladimir Putin becomes president of Russia. Bill Clinton rebuffs him in 2000 when he asks to join NATO.

Putin begins closing the door on Western interlopers, restoring Russian sovereignty, ultimately angering Washington and Wall Street. This process does not occur in Ukraine, which remains subject to Western exploitation and impoverishment of Ukrainian people.

Feb. 10, 2007: Putin gives his Munich Security Conference speech in which he condemns U.S. aggressive unilateralism, including its illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq and its NATO expansion eastward.

He said: “We have the right to ask: against whom is this [NATO] expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact? Where are those declarations today? No one even remembers them.”



Putin speaks three years after the Baltic States, former Soviet republics bordering on Russia, joined the Western Alliance. The West humiliates Putin and Russia by ignoring its legitimate concerns. A year after his speech, NATO says Ukraine and Georgia will become members. Four other former Warsaw Pact states join in 2009.

2004-5: Orange Revolution. Election results are overturned giving the presidency in a run-off to U.S.-aligned Viktor Yuschenko over Viktor Yanukovich. Yuschenko makes fascist leader Bandera a “hero of Ukraine.”

April 3, 2008: At a NATO conference in Bucharest, a summit declaration “welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO”. Russia harshly objects. William Burns, then U.S. ambassador to Russia, and presently C.I.A. director, warns in a cable to Washington, revealed by WikiLeaks, that,

“Foreign Minister Lavrov and other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition, stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine, remains ‘an emotional and neuralgic’ issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene. … Lavrov stressed that Russia had to view continued eastward expansion of NATO, particularly to Ukraine and Georgia, as a potential military threat.”
A crisis in Georgia erupts four months later leading to a brief war with Russia, which the European Union blames on provocation from Georgia.


November 2009: Russia seeks new security arrangement in Europe. Moscow releases a draft of a proposal for a new European security architecture that the Kremlin says should replace outdated institutions such as NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

The text, posted on the Kremlin’s website on Nov. 29, comes more than a year after President Dmitry Medvedev first formally raised the issue. Speaking in Berlin in June 2008, Medvedev said the new pact was necessary to finally update Cold War-era arrangements.

“I’m convinced that Europe’s problems won’t be solved until its unity is established, an organic wholeness of all its integral parts, including Russia,” Medvedev said.

2010: Viktor Yanukovich is elected president of Ukraine in a free and fair election, according to the OSCE.

2013: Yanukovich chooses an economic package from Russia rather than an association agreement with the EU. This threatens Western exploiters in Ukraine and Ukrainian comprador political leaders and oligarchs.

February 2014: Yanukovich is overthrown in a violent, U.S.-backed coup (presaged by the Nuland-Pyatt intercept), with Ukrainian fascist groups, like Right Sector, playing a lead role. Ukrainian fascists parade through cities in torch-lit parades with portraits of Bandera.

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Protesters clash with police in Kiev, Ukraine, February 2014. (Wikimedia Commons)

March 16, 2014: In a rejection of the coup and the unconstitutional installation of an anti-Russian government in Kiev, Crimeans vote by 97 percent to join Russia in a referendum with 89 percent turn out. The Wagner private military organization is created to support Crimea. Virtually no shots are fired and no one was killed in what Western media wrongly portrays as a “Russian invasion of Crimea.”

April 12, 2014: Coup government in Kiev launches war against anti-coup, pro-democracy separatists in Donbass. Openly neo-Nazi Azov Battalion plays a key role in the fighting for Kiev. Wagner forces arrive to support Donbass militias. U.S. again exaggerates this as a Russian “invasion” of Ukraine. “You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pre-text,” says U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who voted as a senator in favor of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 on a completely trumped up pre-text.

May 2, 2014: Dozens of ethnic Russian protestors are burnt alive in a building in Odessa by neo-Nazi thugs. Eight days later, Luhansk and Donetsk declare independence and vote to leave Ukraine.

Sept. 5, 2014: First Minsk agreement is signed in Minsk, Belarus by Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE, and the leaders of the breakaway Donbass republics, with mediation by Germany and France in a Normandy Format. It fails to resolve the conflict.

Feb. 12, 2015: Minsk II is signed in Belarus, which would end the fighting and grant the republics autonomy while they remain part of Ukraine. The accord was unanimously endorsed by the U.N. Security Council on Feb. 15. In December 2022 former German Chancellor Angela Merkel admits West never had intention of pushing for Minsk implementation and essentially used it as a ruse to give time for NATO to arm and train the Ukraine armed forces.

2016: The hoax known as Russiagate grips the Democratic Party and its allied media in the United States, in which it is falsely alleged that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election to get Donald Trump elected. The phony scandal serves to further demonize Russia in the U.S. and raise tensions between the nuclear-armed powers, conditioning the public for war against Russia.

May 12, 2016: U.S. activates missile system in Romania, angering Russia. U.S. claims it is purely defensive, but Moscow says the system could also be used offensively and would cut the time to deliver a strike on the Russian capital to within 10 to 12 minutes.

June 6, 2016: Symbolically on the anniversary of the Normandy invasion, NATO launches aggressive exercises against Russia. It begins war games with 31,000 troops near Russia’s borders, the largest exercise in Eastern Europe since the Cold War ended. For the first time in 75 years, German troops retrace the steps of the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union across Poland.

German Foreign Minister Frank Walter-Steinmeier objects. “What we shouldn’t do now is inflame the situation further through saber-rattling and warmongering,” Steinmeier stunningly tells Bild am Sontag newspaper. “Whoever believes that a symbolic tank parade on the alliance’s eastern border will bring security is mistaken.”

Instead Steinmeier calls for dialogue with Moscow. “We are well-advised to not create pretexts to renew an old confrontation,” he warns, adding it would be “fatal to search only for military solutions and a policy of deterrence.”

December 2021: Russia offers draft treaty proposals to the United States and NATO proposing a new security architecture in Europe, reviving the failed Russian attempt to do so in 2009. The treaties propose the removal of the Romanian missile system and the withdrawal of NATO troop deployments from Eastern Europe. Russia says there will be a “technical-military” response if there are not serious negotiations on the treaties. The U.S. and NATO reject them essentially out of hand.

February 2022: Russia begins its military intervention into Donbass in the still ongoing Ukrainian civil war after first recognizing the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Before the intervention, OSCE maps show a significant uptick of shelling from Ukraine into the separatist republics, where more than 10,000 people have been killed since 2014.

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Ukrainian troops in the Donbass region, March 2015. (OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons)

March-April 2022: Russia and Ukraine agree on a framework agreement that would end the war, including Ukraine pledging not to join NATO. The U.S. and U.K. object. Prime Minister Boris Johnson flies to Kiev to tell Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop negotiating with Russia. The war continues with Russia seizing much of the Donbass.

March 26, 2022: Biden admits in a speech in Warsaw that the U.S. is seeking through its proxy war against Russia to overthrow the Putin government. Earlier in March he overruled his secretary of state on establishing a no-fly zone against Russian aircraft in Ukraine. Biden opposed the no-fly zone, he said at the time, because “that’s called World War III, okay? Let’s get it straight here, guys. We will not fight the third world war in Ukraine.”

September 2022: Donbass republics vote to join Russian Federation, as well as two other regions: Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

May 2023: Ukraine begins counter-offensive to try to take back territory controlled by Russia. As seen in leaked documents earlier in the year, U.S. intelligence concludes the offensive will fail before it begins.

June 2023: A 36-hour rebellion by the Wagner group fails, when its leader Yevegny Prigoshzin takes a deal to go into exile in Belarus. The Wagner private army, which was funded and armed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, is absorbed into the Russian army. The Ukrainian offensive ends in failure at the end of November.

September 2024: Biden deferred to the realists in the Pentagon to oppose long-range British Storm Shadow missiles from being fired by Ukraine deep into Russia out of fear it would also lead to a direct NATO-Russia military confrontation with all that that entails.

Putin warned at the time that because British soldiers on the ground in Ukraine would actually launch the British missiles into Russia with U.S. geostrategic support, it “will mean that NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.”

November 2024: After he was driven from the race and his party lost the White House, a lame duck Biden suddenly switched gears, allowing not only British, but also U.S. long-range ATACMS missiles to be fired into Russia. It’s not clear that the White House ever informed the Pentagon in advance in a move that risked the very World War III that Biden had previously sought to avoid.

February 2025: The first direct contact between senior leadership of the United States and Russia in more than three takes place, with a phone call between the countries’ presidents, and a meeting of foreign ministers in Saudi Arabia. They agree to begin negotiations to end the war.

This timeline clearly shows an aggressive Western intent towards Russia, and how the tragedy could have been avoided if NATO would not allow Ukraine to join; if the Minsk accords had been implemented; and if the U.S. and NATO negotiated a new security arrangement in Europe, taking Russian security concerns into account.

https://consortiumnews.com/2025/02/25/u ... -the-tale/

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Kursk direction: liberation of Nikolskoye and Novaya Sorochina, fighting in Lebedevka
February 27, 2025
Rybar

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Russian troops continue to liberate the Kursk region, driving the enemy out of the occupied territories. Earlier, information was received about the capture of the settlements of Pogrebki and Orlovka in the north of the Sudzhan salient .

Today, more positive news arrived: reports of Nikolskoye's release , sources from the field confirmed the complete clearing of Novaya Sorochina, as well as successes in the Lebedevka area .

More about the situation in the Kursk direction
According to reports from the field, Russian paratroopers were able to liberate the settlement in Lebedevka . However, fierce counter-battles are still ongoing in the area, so it is too early to talk about confident control over the village.

For the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the loss of the settlement will have grave consequences - it will mark the final fall of a serious fortified area in the Loknya River area , which protects the entire left flank and the main supply artery Sudzha - Yunakovka , along which drones are already regularly flying.

As the Russian Armed Forces approach the main supply artery, we should expect an increase in the frequency of counterattacks from the enemy.

Further north, the settlement of Nikolsky has come under the full control of Russian troops . There are also reports from the area about the liberation of Novaya Sorochina , where a clean-up operation is currently underway.

In addition, footage of an artillery strike on a bridge in the Gornali area across the Psel River has appeared online . This will also temporarily complicate the supply of Ukrainian formations in Guevo , located upstream.

Judging by the observed activity in the area of ​​the Malaya Loknya River, the Russian Armed Forces have moved to a new stage of the counteroffensive in the Sudzhansky District . One of its goals is probably to cut the Sudzha-Yunakovka highway.

The enemy will clearly make serious efforts to hold the key supply artery in the Sudzha region ; its loss will mean the actual encirclement of the entire group in the occupied territory of the Kursk region.

https://rybar.ru/kurskoe-napravlenie-os ... lebedevke/

Google Translator

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Replacement puppet
February 28, 15:00

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While the issue of the last tour of the cocaine Fuhrer is being resolved, a puppet replacement is being promoted in parallel, who should be brought to power in the next elections in Ukraine, which the US intends to hold this year.
They will mold the image of the "Ukrainian Manstein", while diligently downplaying the role of Zaluzhny in the "successes" of the summer counteroffensive of 2023, which ended in disaster for Ukraine and the complete loss of operational-strategic initiative. Then expect stories about how the "Ukrainian Manstein" warned the "Ukrainian Hitler", but he did not listen to him, so the Ukrainian Reich lost. That's how they will position it. All the negativity for military defeats will be blamed on the cocaine Fuhrer. And on Syrsky.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9697259.html

11 years of "Polite People"
February 28, 4:00

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11 years ago, "polite people" occupied Crimean airfields and the Russian Spring in Crimea received its natural development, returning Sevastopol and Crimea home to Russia.

An 11-year-old post about polite people https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1440088.html
Hopes and expectations against the background of the general uncertainty of the future were of course a little different then, but in the end everything ended well for us.
Time certainly flew by quickly, although it seemed like it was just recently. But that's history.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9696397.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Mar 01, 2025 12:27 pm

Trump's diplomacy
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 01/03/2025

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“You will see, it will happen very quickly. Soon they will fall at the feet of their boss and wag their tails happily. Everything will be in its place,” said a confident and smiling Vladimir Putin a few days ago, shortly after the first telephone call between the two presidents was confirmed. It was at a time when European countries had not yet understood what had happened and were desperately looking for a way to reach Donald Trump to beg him not to abandon Ukraine in favour of a dialogue with Russia that would imply a radical change in the American position. This is how the beginning of the dialogue with Russia to resume bilateral relations has been perceived in Europe, which has led to two meetings, one in Riyadh and another this week in Istanbul, and to flattering statements for both countries. While claiming to remain cautious, Moscow was hopeful about the start of talks and Donald Trump's statements, in which he called NATO the cause of the conflict, refused to blame Russia for the war, and Marco Rubio demanded that kyiv and European countries withdraw the resolution demanding Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territories that was to be voted on at the United Nations General Assembly coinciding with the third anniversary of the Russian invasion. However, both Ukrainian fear and Russian confidence have been premature.

“Thank you for your hospitality, thank you for your leadership. This has been a very good and very productive visit. And with your family roots in Scotland… And your close ties with His Majesty the King… It’s good to know… That the United Kingdom has a real friend in the Oval Office. And it was so good to see the bust of Winston Churchill back in place just now,” said Starmer, displaying the vassalage typical of the image suggested by Vladimir Putin, after his meeting with Donald Trump at the White House, a meeting that left images very similar to those shown three days earlier during Emmanuel Macron’s visit. In both cases, the moments of trying to correct the president of the United States were left in the background, hidden behind the smiles, the flattery and the exaltation of the transatlantic relationship that both leaders are trying to rescue when they perceive the possibly imaginary danger of being about to lose their main ally. The ability of the interlocutors to attract Donald Trump's attention and convince him of the importance of Ukraine for the common future of the allied countries depends on the chances of the European countries to achieve their vision of a peace by force in which Ukraine benefits and Russia continues to suffer. This is the common goal of the EU member states and the Union itself, which are seeking to balance the rhetoric of welcoming the possibility of peace in Europe with the attempt to get NATO countries to send troops to Ukraine.

“When the United Kingdom and the United States work together, things work out,” wrote Keir Starmer after their meeting, adding an epic video of his stay in the White House, highly valued by the British press, which feared that he would not be able to properly manage the meeting with Donald Trump at a time when the US president is capable of changing his speech without warning, leaving his allies out of the game. Sir Keir Starmer, however, literally kept a card in his hand and took advantage of Trump's vanity and his desire to be accepted by the European aristocracy. In front of the cameras, the British prime minister , who a few years ago wrote that “Donald Trump's support tells you everything you need to know about what is wrong with Boris Johnson's policy and why he is not fit to be prime minister,” took an open envelope out of his jacket pocket and handed it to the US president. Impressed, Donald Trump read the letter sent by the King of England, who invited him to a state visit. Throughout the meeting and the subsequent press conference, Starmer stressed the importance of the special relationship between the two countries and underlined the Scottish origin of the current president, who will be the first to make two state visits to the United Kingdom, an empty milestone used only as bait to achieve political objectives that have nothing to do with the crown or with the relations between the two countries, but which was described as historic.

Although Starmer has tried, according to the White House tenant, he has not managed to convince Trump not to impose tariffs on products from European countries, which, according to the American leader, impose tariffs of around 20% in the form of VAT on products from his country. Beyond making it clear that he does not understand the difference between tariffs and VAT, Trump returned to the charge with the idea that European countries will recover their investment in Ukraine, to which Starmer responded that much of it is “a gift”. The destructive gift in the form of bombs and missiles continues to hit cities on both sides of the front, where, faced with the possibility of the front being frozen, the parties intensify their attacks. Russia does so in Kursk, where Ukrainian troops are facing increasing difficulties, while Ukraine increases its drone bombings in the Pokrovsk-Krasnoarmeysk area and attacks heavily, infiltrating again in Dzerzhinsk-Toretsk, where they once again manage to gain positions in which to entrench themselves. Despite Trump's words, who has gone so far as to say in recent days that there has been progress in negotiations that appear not to have begun, the possibility of an imminent ceasefire still seems remote and everything indicates that, until now, contacts have been limited to negotiations between the United States and Ukraine on economic issues and the United States and Russia on the resumption of bilateral relations.

Even so, and with neither the supply of arms, financing and intelligence from the United States to Ukraine nor the sanctions against Russia, extended by the Trump administration for another year this Thursday, in jeopardy for the moment, the task of European representatives is to salvage the idea of ​​war - that is, in reality, the version of peace through force presented by Kiev, Paris, London and Brussels - as the only way to resolve the conflict and to achieve Washington's involvement in a future European military presence on the ground once a ceasefire is achieved.

In a great display of hypocrisy, Starmer, whose job was to present the Anglo-French plan for troops from NATO countries with external support from the United States as a guarantor of peace - a mission whose cost would, of course, fall on the European countries, which have already assumed with complete normality that it is part of that greater contribution that they must make to the common security structure - thanked Donald Trump for having "changed the conversation" and having opened the door to peace. The man who tries to guarantee support for introducing the presence of NATO, camouflaged in national flags, in Ukraine wanted to praise Trump's ability to talk about peace in order to impose conditions in which he is aware that there will be more war. As was evident in 2022 and remains so now, Russia will not accept, if it is not militarily defeated, the military presence of NATO countries and especially that of the United Kingdom. It should be remembered that Zelensky's invitation to Boris Johnson to establish British military bases in Ukraine was, together with the Ukrainian President's Crimean Declaration, one of the reasons why tensions began to rise which eventually led to the Russian invasion.

In his meeting with Starmer, during which Trump tried not to recall having called Zelensky a dictator and insisted that he is the “best president for Ukraine” – a change brought about by the agreement in principle for the extraction of minerals which, judging by the images of yesterday’s meeting between the two presidents, was only a mirage – the US president insisted on denying the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. But, to the delight of the British prime minister, he did not appear negative regarding the idea of ​​a European mission to guarantee peace. However, there does not seem to be a change in Trump’s discourse regarding American participation. Responding to the question of whether the United States would intervene in the event of a Russian attack on British troops, Trump insisted that he would always come to the aid of the United Kingdom, adding that “they do not need help”. “Can you handle Russia alone?” he said at another point, to Starmer’s uncomfortable smile.

Asked by the press about the territorial issue, “specifically Crimea,” Trump changed his tune again and stated that he would try to recover territories for Ukraine. The mention of the Black Sea coast must worry Russia, since it is there that it has made its territorial gains, a buffer zone to protect access to Crimea, the most important territory for Moscow, but also for Kiev. As usual, Trump did not specify how he hopes to recover these territories, although judging by his insistence on the ceasefire, it must be understood that he intends to convince Russia to give up what it was willing to abandon in 2022. This is also suggested by Steve Witkoff's references to the Istanbul pre-agreement, when the Russian Federation committed to withdraw from practically all the territories captured since the beginning of its military intervention, in exchange for the renunciation of NATO and the military presence of those countries in the territory and a reduction in the strength of the Ukrainian army. Everything indicates that, after a week of pressure on Ukraine, the process of combining the carrot and the stick has begun , the praise of Vladimir Putin's ability to comply with the agreements, with offering Russia conditions that it cannot accept, thus repeating the process that has occurred with Zelensky, who in a week has gone from being a dictator and a mediocre comedian to being received with great fanfare at the White House to sign the mineral extraction agreement that, after the tremendous disaster that was the meeting with Donald Trump and JD Vance, was not even signed.

Peace “will happen soon or it won’t happen,” Donald Trump has said these days, continuing to show signs of maintaining an erratic, completely uninformed discourse and without any apparent plan. The agreement is “pretty close,” the US president insisted yesterday when he received Zelensky, despite the fact that the negotiating teams have not even been created yet. It is possible that Trump confuses “the agreement” with his interests and that what is close is actually the culmination of US objectives, among which the ceasefire is not as important as achieving economic concessions from both parties and it is evident that the peace agreement is still a long way off.

The humiliation suffered yesterday by Zelensky in the Oval Office, broadcast live to the whole world, is proof of this. The moment in which JD Vance put the Ukrainian president on the ropes, with his arms crossed and on the defensive, accusing him of “playing with the third world war” seemed the culmination of a week of personal attacks against the Ukrainian leader. The heated three-way debate after which Donald Trump accused Zelensky of not being ready for peace, and which deserves an analysis in itself, represents a clear turning point in this erratic negotiation process, whose implications in the form of Ukraine’s political reaction will have to be known in the next few hours. But it is evident that the last few hours have completely destroyed the good feelings with which the British delegation left the White House and the smiles with which Zelensky and his team arrived.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/01/31655/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of March 1, 2025 ). Key points:

- Russian military damaged energy facilities that supported the operation of Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises;

- Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 345 servicemen in the area of ​​responsibility of the Center group;

- Russian air defense forces shot down 6 US-made JDAM guided bombs and 190 aircraft-type UAVs

in one day; - Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 190 servicemen in one day in the area of ​​responsibility of the West group;

- Ukrainian Armed Forces lost 55 servicemen in the area of ​​responsibility of the North group in the Kharkiv region;

- Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 95 servicemen in one day in the area of ​​responsibility of the Dnipro group;

- Russian Armed Forces defeated formations of Ukrainian Armed Forces and National Guard brigades in the DPR and near Yanvarskoye in the Dnipropetrovsk region;

- Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 170 servicemen in one day in the area of ​​responsibility of the South.

▫️Units of the "East" force group, as a result of active offensive actions, liberated the settlements of Skudnoe and Burlatskoe of the Donetsk People's Republic . Formations of the mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , two territorial defense brigades and a national guard brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Zeleny Gai, Poddubnoe, Iskra of the Donetsk People's Republic and Yanvarskoe of the Dnipropetrovsk region.

The enemy's losses amounted to 160 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, ten cars and three field artillery guns, including a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Krab" of Polish manufacture. Two electronic warfare stations were destroyed.

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of a mechanized brigade , two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Mala Tokmachka, Novopokrovka, Kamenskoye in the Zaporizhia region, Tokarevka, Antonovka, and Prydniprovskoye in the Kherson region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 95 servicemen, eleven vehicles, an artillery piece, and an electronic warfare station. An ammunition depot was destroyed.

▫️ Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted damage on energy facilities that ensured the operation of enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, the infrastructure of military airfields, warehouses for storing strike unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as concentrations of manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 136 districts.

▫️ Air defense systems shot down six US-made JDAM guided aerial bombs and 190 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

▫️In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 656 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 45,024 unmanned aerial vehicles, 600 anti-aircraft missile systems, 21,946 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,523 multiple launch rocket systems, 22,170 field artillery pieces and mortars, and 32,349 special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Peace scares them more than war.

Telegram roundup. Some clues on why POWs are being killed on both sides. Peace, forever war, and elections. A list of victims of political repression. Updates on the draft-dodging grantfeeders
Events in Ukraine
Feb 27, 2025

Today’s roundup of Ukrainian political commentary will cover the following topics:

A relatively exhaustive list of important political personalities assassinated, tortured and imprisoned under Zelensky’s wartime government

The Russian and Ukrainian approaches to and motivations behind killing enemy POWs, and how it’s paradoxically related to peace and deep conspiracies. More concretely, how drone warfare makes it ‘necessary’ to kill POWs.

Ukrainian militarists discuss peace and the need for elections. Fan favorite Tales of the IV Reich rails against Zelensky propagandists pushing for forever-war:

“You might think that this was written by some Al-Qaeda political officer. Or a religious commissioner of the Taliban. But no, such posts are a completely common theme for Ukrainian politicians from the ruling party.”

But Tales also reserves some praise for the Ukrainian government, in that believes them to be living up to the ideals of Herman Goring

Less deranged Ukrainian commentators also weigh in on peace. Kost Bondarenko gives his thought on the so-called ‘Hero of Ukraine’ Boris Johnson, Oleksandr Dubinsky speculates on the true nature of the Trump deal on Ukraine’s minerals

And finally, where would we be without everyone’s beloved NGO grant-feeder ultranationalists and their heroic evasion of military service? Our good frontline journalist Volodymyr Boiko takes a look at the latest antics in this field.

To begin with, a useful post from Oleksandr Dubinsky, the parliamentarian imprisoned since 2023 for his role in leaks on Burisma. Quite the constellation of politically important figures/events here. If you feel curious, I recommend googling (or yandexing) any of these names, converted into Russian with chatgpt’s help. The wikipedia pages will tell you a great deal about Ukrainian politics. This post is from February 27:

List of politicians, journalists, businessmen, and officials who have been killed, kidnapped, or tortured during Zelensky’s presidency.

Denys Kireyev
Killed by SBU (Security Services of Ukraine) counterintelligence officers in March 2022; was one of the negotiators in the Zelensky-Putin dialogue in 2019; participated in financing Zelensky’s election campaign; member of the negotiation group with Russia.

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David Zhvania
Blown up in his own car; was a harsh critic of Zelensky, demanded his interrogation, and was ready to provide compromising material on the authorities (videos available on YouTube).

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Oleksiy Vadaturskyi
Killed by a Russian missile, a direct hit on his house; an agricultural oligarch, a partner of the Yanukovych family, and owner of a vast amount of land through the agro-trader "Nibulon."

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Denys Monastyrskyi
Minister of Internal Affairs, died in an aviation crash due to GPS signal spoofing; was investigating the sale of weapons Ukraine received from allies to Chad in Africa.

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Gonzalo Lira
American journalist and blogger, killed in Kharkiv’s pre-trial detention center (SIZO) under SBU orders to cover up torture and extortion; initially detained for criticizing Zelensky and Biden and mentioning Burisma.

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Ilya Kiva
Ukrainian MP, close to Medvedchuk (power faction); killed by SBU operatives in Russia for "treason," which included harsh criticism of Zelensky.

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Artem Dmytruk
Ukrainian MP, kidnapped by SBU officers in March 2022, tortured to extract a false confession and admission of cooperation with Russia; real reason—criticism of Zelensky’s regime; forced to flee Ukraine under the threat of assassination due to his support for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC).

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Oleksandr Dubinsky
Ukrainian MP; tortured twice in Kyiv’s pre-trial detention center (SIZO); goal—coercion into false testimony and self-incrimination in collaborating with Russia in the case of the "Russian trace" in Donald Trump’s 2020 election campaign. Dubinsky is being pressured to confess that his corruption allegations against the Bidens and Burisma were a Russian intelligence operation (similar to the Lira case).

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Nestor Shufrych
Ukrainian MP; held in SBU detention on charges of collaborating with Russia; real reason—officials in Zelensky’s circle attempting to re-register his assets; also a means of pressuring Viktor Orbán, who is a close friend of Shufrych.

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Viktor Cherny
Ukrainian MP; kidnapped by SBU officers, held in the SBU-run "gym" concentration camp in central Kyiv, and subjected to torture.


Yevhen Shevchenko
Ukrainian MP; kidnapped by SBU officers, held in the "gym" concentration camp in Kyiv, and tortured; currently held in Kyiv’s pre-trial detention center on treason charges—although the real reason was his personal criticism of Andriy Yermak.

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Yuriy Ryabukha
SBU Colonel, Head of the SBU Legal Training Institute at the National Law University of Yaroslav Mudryi; detained in the SBU "gym" concentration camp for 160 days, tortured to extract a false confession of working with Russia, testimony against SBU, SBI (State Bureau of Investigations), Verkhovna Rada deputies, an ex-governor, and officials from Poroshenko’s administration; a key witness in the Lira case, who was also held in the "gym."

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Vitaliy Gordyna
Former Ukrainian Ambassador to the CIS, Ministry of Foreign Affairs official; held in the SBU "gym" in March 2022; tortured to extract false confessions of working with Russia and accusations against others; a key witness in the case of the SBU's falsification of the "Russian trace" in Trump’s 2020 election campaign.

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Vitaliy Hrushevskyi
Ukrainian MP, Doctor of Philosophy; kidnapped and held in the basement of the SBU on Askold Lane for criticizing the government and engaging in political activities; subjected to torture.

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(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... e-than-war

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Poland’s Earlier Funding Of A Ukrainian Blogger Just Backfired In The Worst Way Possible
Andrew Korybko
Feb 27, 2025

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The recipient, who has a sordid history of glorifying those who genocided Poles during World War II, threatened to kill a presidential candidate after he condemned Ukraine’s cult of Bandera while in Lvov.

The latest scandal in Polish-Ukrainian relations isn’t over grain, the Volhynia Genocide dispute, or the question of dispatching peacekeepers there, but over Poland’s earlier funding of a Ukrainian blogger. Vakhtiang Kipiani, a Ukrainian of Georgian heritage, threatened on Facebook that populist-nationalist Polish presidential candidate Slawomir Mentzen will meet the fate of an interwar Polish minister who was infamously assassinated by the “Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists” (OUN) on Bandera’s orders.

Mentzen had earlier recorded a video during his recent trip to Lvov where he stood in front of a Bandera statue and condemned him as a terrorist. He then responded to Kipiani’s threat by pointing out how he was awarded the Order of Stepan Bandera and even the Medal of Gratitude from the European Solidarity Centre in Gdansk. Mentzen also called on Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski to react to this egregious provocation against a presidential candidate as well as to Ukraine’s glorification of Bandera.

The Polish information portal Kresy,pl then reminded everyone that they discovered as far back as 2014 that Kipiani had received funding from the Polish Foreign Ministry from 2011-2013 for his work on historical subjects, including the Volhynia Genocide that Kipiani has perversely sought to justify. The larger scandal that’s emerging is therefore that Poland funded and might still be funding Ukrainian bloggers whose interpretation of historical events is at direct odds with their own government’s.

Their soft power efforts over the years are thus backfiring in the worst way possible after one of the recipients of the state’s largesse just threatened to kill a presidential candidate and consequently drew attention to Poland’s counterproductive USAID-like network in Ukraine. Instead of advancing national interests, some of these projects indisputably harm them like in Kipiani’s case, and it’s anyone’s guess how many more such examples there are since few have investigated this years-long campaign.

The timing couldn’t be worse since Ukrainian issues are playing an increasing role in the lead-up to May’s presidential election. The ruling liberal-globalist coalition is now pressured to take an even harder stance against Ukraine than they’ve recently begun to if they want their candidate Rafal Trzaskowski to beat the (very imperfect) conservative opposition’s Karol Nawrocki. If they don’t, then Mentzen might support Nawrocki in the second round if it comes to that in order to keep Trzaskowski out of power.

As was explained here, which referenced Mentzen’s trip to Lvov and the first scandal that followed its mayor lambasting him for his video, the liberal-globalists might flip-flop on sending peacekeepers to Ukraine if Trzaskowski wins the presidency while Nawrocki might hold firm on staying out of the fray. In other words, the outcome of the presidential election could ultimately determine Poland’s participation or lack thereof in any such mission, which might make it a game-changer in this conflict.

The liberal-globalists are now forced into the dilemma of condemning Kipiani and capitulating to pressure to suspend Poland’s USAID-like network in Ukraine pending the conclusion of an investigation into all the recipients or carrying on with business as usual. The first can keep them in some of the public’s good graces but at the expense of worsening already difficult ties with Ukraine while the second can sour more of the public on them ahead of May’s election in order to keep ties with Ukraine stable.

The sensitivity of what just happened, both from the Polish perspective of a previously government-funded Ukrainian blogger threatening to kill a presidential candidate and from the Ukrainian perspective of that same candidate condemning Bandera while in Lvov, can lead to unpredictable developments. It’s such an emotive issue that high-level politicians and average people alike on both sides might inject themselves into this scandal. That could accelerate the growing distrust of one another’s countries.

A self-sustaining cycle might soon follow whereby Poland and Ukraine drift further away from each other than they already have been in recent years over grain, the Volhynia Genocide dispute, and the question of dispatching peacekeepers. That could have enormous implications for May’s presidential election and thenceforth the European order after the end of the Ukrainian Conflict depending on the result so it should be assumed that the EU, Russia, and the US will all be monitoring latest scandal this very closely.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/polands- ... -ukrainian

*****

The Guessing Game Over Trump's Real Aims In Ukraine

The guessing game about President Donald Trump's real position on peace in Ukraine continues.

Some commentators, including yours truly, think that Trump has blown it by becoming too committed to Ukraine. Others believe that Trump is deceiving the public while working on peace in the backroom.

The last two blog post were part of the guessing game:

Does Trump Really Have A Plan For Ukraine?
Ukraine - Minerals Deal Agreement, Lavrov Rejects Peacekeepers, War Destined To Become Trump's Vietnam


To recap the first piece:

Neither approach one might think Trump is taking - to use a Ukraine resource deal to keep the U.S. in Ukraine and the war going, or to use the Ukraine resource deal to finally break with Ukraine - is consistent with a realistic assessment of the facts on the ground. At least not if the aim of the game is to make peace.
...
The conclusion for me is that there is no Trump plan at all to make peace in Ukraine.


and the second:

By pressing for the agreement, instead of taking the Russian offer for access to minerals, Trump has committed himself to continue the war in Ukraine.
...
It will lead to the failure of his peace initiative.
The war Ukraine is now destined to become Trump's Vietnam.


Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism is supportive of my last take. Citing a recent talk between Judge Napolitano and Col. Douglas MacGregor she writes:

This segment confirms what yours truly had warned about, yet quite a few members of the commentariat seem unwilling to accept: that the Ukraine minerals deal, if consummated, will commit the US to involvement in and therefore support of Ukraine.
Put it another way, there’s no value to this arrangement, and high embarrassment to Trump, if peace negotiations fail (perhaps more accurately, fail even to get started).


During that segment Napolitano presented a quote from Trump:

Trump: President Zelensky’s coming to sign the deal, and it’s a great thing. It’s a great deal for Ukraine too because get us over there, we’re going to be working over there, we’ll be on the land, and that way, it’s sort of automatic security, because nobody is going to be messing around with our people while when we’re there. And so we’ll be there in that way. But Europe will be watching it very closely. I know that UK has said and France has said that they want to put, they volunteered to put so-called peacekeepers on the ground. And I think that’s a good thing.

Napolitano as well as Macgregor dislike Trump's position:

Napolitano: You know, we both respect him and applaud his willingness to talk with the Russians. But statements like that betray either gross ignorance or very very bad intel. Your thoughts, Colonel..
Macgregor: No, I think that’s a polite way to put it. To be frank, President Trump needs to get out of this notion of putting anybody in Ukraine who’s not Ukrainian. And stay away from it. I heard this and I was genuinely disappointed, because there’s been a gross misinterpretation. ...[/i]

Others, however, reject the pessimistic interpretation.

Gilbert Doctorow comments on the Trump press conference with the British Premier Starmer:

Even some of the most astute and worldly-wise commentators on Trump in alternative media underappreciate him and persist in seeing him as a buffoon whose inconsistencies and contradictions in his public statements from one day to another are convincing proof that he cannot see an initiative through to successful conclusion. This is precisely what I saw and heard earlier today when listening to the ‘Judging Freedom’ interview with Colonel Larry Wilkerson, whom I otherwise greatly respect for his observations on U.S. relations with Israel or on the battlefield situation in the Russia-Ukraine war.
...
No, this fellow Trump is a master at deception. Today’s press conference with Keith Starmer was proof positive that the vague, nonspecific notion of America back-stopping the European peace keepers in Ukraine is, strictly speaking, a tactic to shut up the Europeans while Washington puts together a mutually acceptable end-game solution with Moscow that it imposes on Ukraine and Europe at the appropriate moment.


Wilkerson's remarks (@4min) as referred to by Doctorow:

Napolitano: Does [Trump] not understand Vladimir Putin's mentality?
Wilkerson: Apparently not. These are very unwise remarks as a matter of fact because he's compromising his own ability to to negotiate a decent deal. It's just nonsense and it's increasing nonsense if he keeps talking that way. That's my problem with Donald Trump: he solves a problem at least preliminarily and then he moves on and screws the problem he solved himself with his mouth. I don't know how you do diplomacy that way.


Prof. John Mearsheimer does not believe that (@14min):

I think when you look at the administration and you look at what is going on in the foreign policy realm you have to distinguish between what is happening behind closed doors, the actual decision-making process, and what is happening out in public.

Let us start with regard to what is happening behind closed doors:

Donald Trump and everybody at the top of his administration knows full well what the Russian demands are and the fact that Trump has said and others have said that a deal can be worked out means that we know what those demands are and we're going to meet those demands period end of story. And this includes this crazy idea of peacekeepers and security guarantees and so forth and so on. Putin has made it unequivocally clear that that is unacceptable and Trump has de facto accepted that now. That's the private discourse that takes place behind closed doors.

Then there's the public debate and the public debate is sort of a wild and crazy one in large part because Trump is free to say whatever he wants and because he likes to pontificate on a daily basis and he doesn't pay much attention to facts and he's not very careful with his language. We end up in all these debates about what he really means and is he contradicting himself and so forth and so on.

I've got to the point where I just don't pay that much attention to what he says in public. The question is what are they saying in private and I believe in private they know what has to be said. They have already said it at least once to the Russians and now the details have to be worked out.


I hope that Doctorow and Mearsheimer are more correct than Yves Smith, myself, Macgregor and Wilkerson. That the public play we see and hear is just a facade for a serious policy behind it.

I fear however, like Wilkerson does, that too much public talk, even if not meant seriously, has its own way to become reality.

But on a positive side we can see that Trump is getting the (European) ducks into a row.

President Macron of France as well as Prime Minister Starmer of Britain have failed to get U.S. backing for European forces in Ukraine. The warmongering and incompetent European Unions High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas came to Washington to be immediately dismissed. Her meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio was scuppered over 'scheduling issues'. (Rumor has it that Kallas had screamed 'appeasement' at Secretary of Defense Hegseth during the recent Munich Security Conference.)

President Putin's prediction that the Europeans will eventually be "at Trump’s feet wagging their tails" has become true:

"Trump, given his personality, his firmness, will establish order fairly quickly. And all of them, quickly, you will see, stand at the master’s feet, wagging their tails tenderly," he said in an interview with VGTRK journalist Pavel Zarubin.

They fall into line with whatever plans Trump might have.

The most difficult remaining barrier to peace in Ukraine is its president Zelenski. He has the most to lose from peace talks over Ukraine. Later today Trump will make him sign the rather worthless 'mineral deal'. But is that enough to put and keep him in line?

And what are the next steps is Trump willing to take? Russia will not allow for a ceasefire along the current lines but wants the big strategic package - an indivisible security structure in Europe - all in one go.

Is Trump really willing and capable enough to deliver on that?

Posted by b on February 28, 2025 at 16:43 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/02/t ... .html#more

No, Trump is neither willing. due to ego, nor capable of anything but bluster, even if it's spoken softly.

******

Spanking in Washington
February 28, 20:48

Image

The best comedy of the week is Zelensky's public flogging in Washington.

We gave you 350 billion. You are in a difficult situation now. You have no strong cards in your hand. We want to save your country and stop the war. You can't say - I don't want to stop the war. Without us, you have no strong cards in your hand.

* * *

Ukraine has "big problems" in the conflict with Russia.
I know you are not winning.

* * *

You are showing us disrespect.
Things are heading towards World War III, you have no right to play with this.

* * *

Either we make this deal, or you leave it, you are not showing gratitude

* * *

You can't tell us "I want this, I want that".

* * *

- What if the Russian Federation does not adhere to peace?
- What if a bomb falls on your head now?

* * *

- Either Zelensky makes a deal, or the US washes its hands of it

* * *

We can deprive Kiev of support if Zelensky does not strive for a settlement (c) Trump

* * *

- Can I say, Mr. President?
- No, you've already said too much!

* * *

- Do you even have a suit?

- Yes, I do.

- Some Americans are upset that you don't respect formal dress.


* * *

I think it's very good that Americans are finally seeing what's going on.
I'm supposed to say horrible things about Putin and then come to him and say "hey, Vladimir, how's our deal going"? That's not how it works.

* * *

And that was just the public part of the spanking.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9697723.html

Google Translator

****

Jfc, it's hard to keep up...

Trump and Zelensky news conference canceled after heated meeting
By Elise Hammond, Aditi Sangal and Shania Shelton, CNN
Updated 2:45 PM EST, Fri February 28, 2025

What we're covering
• Hostile meeting: A meeting between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky devolved into a shouting match at the Oval Office today, with the US president berating Ukraine’s leader and Vice President JD Vance questioning whether Zelensky had demonstrated enough gratitude for US support.

*****

Zelensky cancels speech at Hudson Institute
From CNN's Jennifer Hansler
The Hudson Institute has confirmed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has canceled his speech that was scheduled at the think tank this afternoon.

The move follows a remarkable meeting between President Donald Trump and Zelensky that devolved into a shouting match at the Oval Office, with the US president berating Ukraine’s leader and Vice President JD Vance questioning whether Zelensky had demonstrated enough gratitude for US support.

*****

Zelensky was told to leave White House early after Oval Office shouting match. Here’s a recap of what happened

From CNN's Elise Hammond, Kaitlan Collins, Daria Tarasova-Markina, Victoria Butenko, Katharina Krebs, Lauren Kent, Kevin Liptak and Kit Maher

Image
President Donald Trump talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House on Friday.

A remarkable shouting match broke out in the Oval Office on Friday between President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, an extraordinarily fractious display that only underscored the deeply uncertain future of American assistance to Kyiv.

Castigating Zelensky for not demonstrating enough gratitude for American support, Trump and his Vice President JD Vance raised their voices, accusing the besieged leader of standing in the way of a peace agreement with Russia as the full-scale invasion has surpassed its third year.

What was said:

“You’re right now, not really in a very good position. You’ve allowed yourself to be in a very bad position,” Trump said. “You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards.”
“I’m not playing cards,” Zelensky said.
Raising his voice, after more back-and-forth, Trump said, “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III.”
At one moment, Vance accused Zelensky of being “disrespectful” toward his American hosts.
“You’re not acting all that thankful,” Trump added.
“Have you said ‘thank you’ once?” Vance asked Zelensky.


After the meeting: Following the exchange, the two leaders went into separate rooms and Trump ordered the Ukrainians be told to leave, a White House official said. The Ukrainians protested and wanted to continue the talks. But they were told no, a White House official said. A scheduled joint press conference was scrapped and Zelensky departed in his black SUV without signing a planned agreement on providing US access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals.

Trump and Zelensky’s reactions: Trump posted online that his counterpart was not welcome back until he was “ready for peace.” Zelensky posted on X, “Thank you America, thank you for your support, thank you for this visit. Thank you @POTUS, Congress, and the American people.” Ukraine’s Defense Ministry also reacted on Telegram: “We have our own things to do. Glory to Ukraine.”

Russian reaction: Kirill Dmitriev, a special envoy to Russian President Vladimir Putin, reacted to a video of the exchange on X with one word: “historic.” The headline from Russia state news agency TASS said Zelensky “interrupted, argued and was rude to the press.” A headline by another Russian state media outlet, RIA Novosti, read: “Zelensky’s Hysteria in the White House Shocks the Rada,” referring to the Ukrainian parliament.

Earlier today: Zelensky said he met with a bipartisan US Senate delegation, where the discussion focused on “continued military assistance for Ukraine, relevant legislative initiatives,” his upcoming meeting with Trump and security guarantees. He also said he was “grateful for the unwavering bicameral and bipartisan support.”

https://us.cnn.com/politics/live-news/t ... 0775855192

Talk about a 'set piece'...if the Clown has any sense he'll head for one of the fine properties he's acquired in Western Europe with his ill-gotten gains, throw in the towel and pray the Nazis don't come looking for him.

PS -One thing I didn't see in this CNN coverage is at the end of the video ambush Trump said, "That will make great TV." Speaks volumes...
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Mar 01, 2025 10:56 pm

Extra Ukraine edition

BLOODBATH IN THE OVAL OFFICE
A presidential dressing down for the ages.
Simplicius
Mar 01, 2025

We just witnessed the most extraordinary unclothing in the history of American ‘diplomacy’. Zelensky’s life and career as a cheap television gigolo flashed before his eyes, as he stumped in the Oval Office today, while Trump and Vance took turns flagellating him like the mewling fraud that he is.

Dugin summed it up succinctly:

Image

And Medvedev added the relish:

Image

First, a quick summary: it all began as Zelensky pulled up to the White House, with Trump immediately ribbing the disgraced leader about his unprofessional choice of attire: (Video at link. )

It’s clear Trump was not pleased by Zelensky’s brazen disregard for diplomatic customs and courtesy. Axios noted this:

Image
https://www.axios.com/2025/02/28/trump- ... ng-details

This seemingly trivial little speed bump likely has more significance than meets the eye. Despite appearing on character for Trump, his setting the tone of the meeting with such an obvious stinger implies that the now-famous ambush carried out moments later by him and Vance was planned in advance, no pun intended.

Now for the show itself, here is the longer 10-minute version of the main fireworks: (Video at link. )

But for those interested in seeing the entire near 50-minute press conference, and what led up to the above, you can see the entirety here.

If you haven’t watched any of it, I implore you to behold the 10-minute debacle above—it’s unlike anything you’ll ever see between world ‘leaders’. Trump and Vance made a brilliant tag team on Zelensky, who was relegated to the stature of a small choirboy.

One of the highlights which may not have been captured in the video above included the following, where Zelensky again was treated like an abject interloper, a scrawny pipsqueak, and mocked for his irreverent dress: (Video at link. )

“Do you even own a suit?”

Imagine such a demeaning question being asked of any other world leader.

But this exchange highlights precisely the main takeaway—which is that the artificially constructed image of Zelensky is no longer useful, and has been tossed away like a used rag. All the false bravado and olive drab khakis—it all served a purpose for the past three years, with Zelensky built up like some kind of John Rambo-Churchill. The ‘sacred’ attire would have never been questioned before, because it represented the theater of it all, the carefully stage-managed production. Now that the play has run its course, failing to turn a profit, the ‘act’ has grown old and we’re immediately allowed a view under the costume.

Image

Now Zelensky has really outdone himself—when even Lindsey Graham calls for your resignation, you know the Ides of March are near: (Video at link. )

Image

In the wake of today’s disaster, there are some even more catastrophic possibilities on the horizon for Ukraine. Rumors now swirl about all kinds of US aid revocations.

The first was apparently already in the pipeline:

Image

Then, the announcement that the US is cutting energy grid restoration for Ukraine:

Image

And lastly, the most catastrophic one of all—the claim that Trump is now considering cutting all Ukrainian aid:

Image

The Trump administration is considering halting all current military aid to Ukraine following the events in the Oval Office, a senior administration official told The Washington Post.

The official said the decision, if made, would apply to radars, vehicles, ammunition and missiles awaiting shipment to Ukraine, while rejecting the suggestion that Trump and Vance's confrontation with Zelensky was deliberate.


Outspoken Rada MP Goncharenko turned the doom knob to eleven:

Image

Now that we’ve set the stage, let us deeply analyze what comes next for Ukraine.

(Paywall but continue for free if you got a so-called 'smart phone'. I'm not keen on Simpliticus's political analysis)

******

The Oval Office Shouting Match - Wrap-Up

The first 40 or so minutes of yesterday's oval office press talk (vid) went quite normal. Questions were asked and replies were given in general form, addressing the public. There was some mild banter. But then a breakdown (vid) occurred:

It was all destroyed when JD Vance, the US vice-president entered the conversation to declare: “The path to peace and the path to prosperity is maybe engaging in diplomacy.
“We tried the pathway of Joe Biden of thumping our chest and pretending the Potus’s words counted more than Potus’s actions,” he declared.

To anyone who has spent time in or around the Ukraine war, such airy talk of “diplomacy” – as if it means anything without hard force to back it up – is exasperatingly naive.

Mr Zelensky should probably have let it slide. But he was not taking it.

“Can I ask you?” he asked, leaning towards Mr Vance.

“Sure,” replied Mr Vance.
...
“What kind of diplomacy, JD, are you speaking about? What do you mean?”

It was a mistake.

There followed a barrage of invective about Ukrainian ungratefulness – in front of the world’s media.


For anyone who remembers how the whole Ukraine conflict was initiated by the U.S., the hypocrisy played out here is overwhelming.

How can one, as Trump and Vance do, lament that the war has destroyed Ukraine and led to countless people dying for no good cause and, at the same time, demand that Ukraine be thankful for all the 'advice', weapons and money the U.S. has given in first place to drag Ukraine into a war and to wage it.

But Zelenski wasn't upset about U.S. hypocrisy. He was upset that he was told to make peace.

The bad mood he was in had already festered for some time. In late 2023 Simon Shuster had portrait Zelenski for Time:

On my first day in Kyiv, I asked one member of his circle how the President was feeling. The response came without a second’s hesitation: “Angry.”
...
[M]ost of all, Zelensky feels betrayed by his Western allies. They have left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it.
But his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”


Trump and Vance tried to tell him - Zelenski exploded. Some say this was trap or set up. I and others disagree. It was Trump who wanted the 'mineral deal' to be signed. Why would he sabotage that?

It would have been easy for Zelenski to not react to Vance's interdiction but he instead started a fight. He even might have dreamed of a knock out.

The incident, in full view of the U.S. public, will allow Trump to drop Ukraine as the bad asset that it now is. As I commented yesterday:

What will Trump do now?
Best guess:

He will walk away from Ukraine. (No rare earth deal or anything else.)
Europeans will be ignored (Macron had urged him to meet Zelenski ---> bad!)
He will make a deal with Russia. Rare earth, lifting sanctions and much more.


There seems to be no regret by Zelenski who has failed to apologize.

Meanwhile USAID has stopped repairs of Ukraine's energy grid. Other U.S. support is highly endangered:

Trump administration press secretary Caroline Leavitt stated that the U.S. will no longer provide military assistance to Ukraine because their priority is peace negotiations. This decision came after the controversy during Zelensky’s visit.
"We are no longer going to just write blank checks for a war in a very distant country without a real, lasting peace," Leavitt said.


Zelenski hopes that Europe will back him. But while some European bots claim to stand by Ukraine they have neither the men, money nor weapons to do so. There is no European unity on it:

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are 'very unhappy' they were betrayed by being excluded from tomorrow's Ukraine summit in London. They 'have a plan... but they weren't invited' - Sky News
Zelenski will have to go - one way or the other. His former advisor, the slimy Oleksy Arestovych, is already offering himself as replacement:

Arestovych @arestovych - 14:03 UTC · Mar 1, 2025
- Zelensky is not just proposing war - he’s proposing war without weapons.
He weakened the army (failed 55% of the defense procurement plan), lost U.S. support, and divided the country.
Without him, Ukraine would fight better and make peace faster and more effectively.
I stand for peace.
There is a way out - Zelensky, step down.


The Russians are the big winner in this. Ukraine is in a scuffle with its main sponsor. The western alliance has splintered. The enemies' frontline is falling apart.

Russia is opposed to Trump's main demand of a cease-fire along the current frontline. But Zelenski is blamed for sabotaging it.

I do not see how Zelenski can escape from this.

Posted by b on March 1, 2025 at 16:18 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/03/t ... .html#more

******

Zelensky Picked His Fight With Trump & Vance After Getting Cold Feet About Making Peace
Andrew Korybko
Mar 01, 2025

Image

Zelensky was triggered after realizing that the Trump Administration wants to coerce him into peace with Putin and won’t be manipulated into prolonging, let alone escalating, the conflict after signing their rare earth minerals deal like he somehow expected that they would.

Friday’s spectacle in the Oval Office will forever be remembered as one of the most epic failures that any foreign leaders has made after Zelensky delusionally thought that that he could disrespect Vice President Vance on live TV in front of Trump without any consequences while being a guest in their country. Readers can watch the full recording here, which shows Zelensky aggressively reacting to Vance’s benign comment about prioritizing diplomacy with Putin over the prior administration’s failed tough talk.

Everything then spiraled out of control after Zelensky accused Vance of speaking loudly to him, which prompted Trump to contradict Zelensky and tell him to keep quiet since he’s already talked too much, all while brutally berating him in a scene that had never been witnessed before in America’s highest office. Trump and Vance also accused Zelensky of being ungrateful for American aid after he lied about Ukraine being left alone since the start of the conflict and reminded him of how disrespectfully he was behaving.

Trump wrapped everything up by warning that the US might completely end its support for Ukraine if Zelensky doesn’t agree to make peace with Putin before unprecedentedly kicking Zelensky out of the White House. To add insult to injury, White House staffers then ate the lunch that was already prepared for Zelensky and his team with the expectation that they’d sign the rare earth minerals deal that was the reason behind his visit. Trump also posed on social media about how Zelensky disrespected the US.

For as clear-cut as the sequence of events was for any objective observer who watched the roughly 10-minute footage that was hyperlinked to in the introductory paragraph, namely that Zelensky provoked his two hosts by disrespecting Vance, the Financial Times’ Ben Hall had a totally different view. According to him, “it is not hard to imagine that Vance and Trump were spoiling for a fight with the Ukrainian leader…Arguably, the stage was set for an ambush” when Zelensky arrived in the Oval Office.

While it’s true that Zelensky and Trump were just embroiled in a vicious spat prior to the Ukrainian leader’s arrival to the US, his American counterpart invited him to visit because he wanted to patch up their problems by signing the rare earth minerals deal and then discuss a path to peace with Putin. Trump treated Zelensky benevolently prior to Zelensky trying to disrespect Vance, as did Vance, who didn’t say anything personal or insulting before Zelensky suddenly decided to harangue him.

It seems like Zelensky was triggered after realizing that the Trump Administration wants to coerce him into peace with Putin and won’t be manipulated into prolonging, let alone escalating, the conflict after signing their rare earth minerals deal like he somehow expected that they would. For that reason, he then decided to sabotage the talks by creating a spectacle, possibly hoping that it would justify abruptly refusing to sign the aforesaid deal if they were going to use it right afterwards to pressure him to peace.

Zelensky isn’t being advised by anyone with even basic insight into how Trump operates otherwise he’d have known that public pressure on his counterpart always backfires. Zelensky would also never have thought that the US needs Ukraine for anything more than Ukraine needs the US. Trump is already considering a more important rare earth minerals deal with Putin so he doesn’t even need Ukraine’s resources whereas Ukraine has no alternative to American arms and is thus fully dependent on it.

This observation brings the analysis to the penultimate point about how Trump ominously left unanswered a question about whether he’ll suspend military aid to Ukraine like he threatened at the end of his and Vance’s heated exchange with Zelensky. If that’s what he ends up doing, and it’s too early to say for sure, then it would represent the worst-case scenario for the Europeans since Russia could then carry on as far westward as it wants if the front lines collapse without fear of the US intervening.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth already confirmed a few weeks ago that the US won’t extend Article 5 guarantees to any NATO country’s troops in Ukraine so the UK, France, and whoever else might have considered dispatching them there in that event will now be forced to think twice about it. In other words, Russia could hypothetically carry on as far as Ukraine’s border with NATO if it wants to, though Putin might stop far short of that if a breakthrough coerces Kiev into complying with his demands.

The final point to make is that what happened Oval Office on Friday was truly a black swan in the sense that nobody could have expected that Zelensky would ruin his relations with Trump right at the moment when they were supposed to sign their rare earth minerals deal that would then pave the way to peace. Trump even exclaimed during the height of their drama how the US was giving Ukraine cards to play for helping it end the conflict on much better terms than if he didn’t diplomatically involve himself in it.

He was therefore very serious about brokering peace between Zelensky and Putin, hence why he was so exasperated at Zelensky’s blatant disrespect once everything started snowballing after Zelensky began to disrespect Vance, which explains why he unprecedentedly kicked him out of the White House. The “New Détente” that Trump wants to broker with Putin, which readers can learn more about from the five analyses hyperlinked in the middle of this one here, is largely predicated on forcing Zelensky into peace.

Zelensky’s last-minute decision to sabotage the peace process by creating a global spectacle caught Trump off guard, but he wasn’t going to let Zelensky disrespect Vance with impunity, let alone after Zelensky’s disrespect transformed into disrespect for the US. That’s not to say that the “New Détente” is now derailed since Trump and Putin still have the will to enter into a series of mutual compromises aimed at establishing strategic ties, but just that it might now proceed independently of Ukraine.

Accordingly, it was actually Zelensky who ruined everything, not Trump and Vance. They could never have expected that he’d burn Ukraine’s bridges with the US knowing that it’s impossible for Ukraine to replace US military aid. Those two thought that he came to DC to sign the rare earth minerals deal that would then place them all on the path to peace with Putin. Perhaps Zelensky didn’t realize what he was getting into until it was too late, by which time he let his emotions get the best of him, but who knows.

In any case, it’s very difficult to imagine there being any rapprochement between Zelensky and Trump or Ukraine and the US in general without Zelensky leaving office or fully capitulating to Trump’s demands. If he defiantly perpetuates the conflict and the US cuts him off, then Russia will pretty much be given free rein by Washington to do whatever it wants with Ukraine, though it’s unknown how the EU would react. Everything will become clearer by next week though once it’s known exactly what Zelensky plans to do.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/zelensky ... t-with-his

(My best guess this that The Clown will return to DC with his tail between his legs, which will gratify The Orange Man to no end.)

******

Three years on… Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine is vindicated

February 28, 2025

Russia will continue its military campaign to eradicate the Neo-Nazi regime in Kiev.

This week marks the third anniversary of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, launched on February 24, 2022.

Moscow has consistently explained the conflict in Ukraine to be a manifestation of a bigger geopolitical confrontation brought about by U.S. and NATO aggression using Ukraine as a proxy. That aggression was latent for decades going back to the end of the Second World War.

Russia’s emerging military victory against a NeoNazi regime armed to the teeth by an array of Western enemies has not just defeated a nefarious proxy war. It is demolishing the charade of supposed Western moral authority. This is an epoch-making watershed. It is significant that this event comes at a time when U.S. and Western global power is failing and flailing, and a new multipolar order is evolving, one where Russia’s international esteem and influence are increasing.

The United States, its European allies and the Western corporate-controlled news media have tried to depict Ukraine as an innocent victim of “unprovoked Russian aggression”.

Three years on, the Western narrative has collapsed in a pile of propaganda lies. The United States, under the new administration of President Donald Trump, has abandoned the erstwhile claims made against Russia. This week, the United States tabled a resolution at the United Nations Security Council which calls for peace in Ukraine and refrained from accusing Russia of aggression.

As many as one million Ukrainian soldiers have been killed over the past three years on the battlefield. Russia has not disclosed how many of its troops have died. Some estimates put the death toll at around 100,000.

The conflict in Ukraine is the biggest on the European continent since the end of World War II. It is a tragedy of epic proportion, especially given that the conflict could have been avoided by diplomacy.

The Trump administration is now pushing for peace negotiations with Russia. The American president has also acknowledged some of the “root causes” of the conflict, namely the provocative and unacceptable idea of Ukraine joining the NATO alliance advocated by his predecessor, and the longer-term threat posed by NATO’s expansion toward Russia’s borders since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s.

In other words, the U.S. administration has now moved to a point for diplomacy that the previous Biden White House rejected.

It is important to recall that in the weeks before hostilities erupted at the end of February 2022, Moscow had presented a detailed and comprehensive proposal for a mutual security treaty between Russia and the U.S.-led NATO military alliance. That diplomatic initiative was dismissed by Washington and its European allies. The rejection of negotiations made the conflict and the ensuing death and destruction inevitable. That is a diabolical shame on the heads of the Western powers.

In our weekly editorial on February 25, 2022, it was stated: “Moscow had warned that if its reasonable security proposals were not reciprocated, then there would be ‘military-technical measures’. Having exhausted the initiative for dialogue and mutual respect, the next phase is the use of more ‘physical language’ to convey meaning to people who seem unresponsive to normal dialogue. It is the Western powers and their arrogant presumption of superiority that are responsible for the impasse and now the repercussions.”

Russia was fully justified in taking military action against NATO’s relentless threats. The conflict was never about merely Ukraine, it was about facing down the entire U.S.-led Western bloc and its incorrigible aggression towards Russia.

Again, in our editorial from three years ago we stated: “Russia has for years warned that U.S. and NATO aggression was posing a critical danger to international security and had to stop. The revoking of arms control treaties by the U.S. (the ABM, INF, Open Skies Treaty) and the expansion of missile threats near Russia’s borders were no longer tolerable. Ukraine is really just one element of the bigger picture. But this week, Russia has moved finally to stop the aggression. It is a historic watershed.”

This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed hope that sanity and diplomacy may prevail under the Trump administration to negotiate a peace settlement in Ukraine. Putin also warned of the danger that diplomacy could be sabotaged by Western powers who would rather that their proxy war against Russia continues – no matter how many deaths it inflicts nor the risks of all-out nuclear war.

It is not clear if the Trump administration can be a reliable party. Trump this week extended economic sanctions on Russia for another year – which is not a good sign. Yes, he has expressed recognition of Russia’s deep concerns but this American president is fickle and mercurial. He seems prone to flip-flopping on his positions. Last week, he called Ukraine’s expired president, Vladimir Zelensky, a “dictator” (which is arguably correct). But this week, Trump denied the disparagement while inking a major mining deal with Zelensky in Washington.

Let’s not forget, too, that Trump during his first administration was complicit in instigating war when in 2019 he approved Javelin missiles to the Ukrainian regime – the first time the taboo of supplying lethal weapons was broken. Trump also ripped up the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty, gravely provoking tensions with Russia.

Fair enough, this time around, Trump has, in a good way, upended relations with European allies by snubbing their involvement in peace talks with Russia. The rupture in the transatlantic alliance has cast a huge shadow of doubt that the NATO bloc can hold together after 76 years of existence.

At the very least, Trump has created a space for dialogue and potential peace. However, it remains to be seen if his administration delivers on resolving the systematic causes of conflict.

It could turn out that Washington is merely moving to save face for the United States from an embarrassing defeat in Ukraine, aiming to dump the costs on its European lackeys, rather than forging a genuine security treaty as demanded by Moscow.

Washington’s belated dropping of the narrative about “Russian aggression” proves that the narrative was baseless. The Western-backed war in Ukraine with hundreds of billions of dollars and euros has been fueled on lies and deception. That is monstrously criminal.

Russia launched its special military operation to protect the ethnic Russian population that had come under relentless, murderous attacks by the NATO-backed Kiev regime that the CIA had installed in the 2014 coup.

Russia has regained historic territories through referenda in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. Other historic territories are also up for reclaiming, including Kharkiv and Odessa, the port city founded by Russian empress Catherine the Great in the 18th century.

Russia will continue its military campaign to eradicate the Neo-Nazi regime in Kiev.

And Russia will ensure that the NATO bloc (if it continues to exist, which is doubtful at this time) never acquires a foothold in the rump Ukrainian territory. That includes rejecting any spurious notion by Britain and France of deploying “peacekeeping troops”.

The debacle among the U.S. and its European allies is proof of Russia’s vindication and why it was wholly justified in taking military action against NATO in Ukraine.

The enemies of Russia are in no position to trade. They have nothing to trade.

Russia’s vindication means there can be no shoddy deal – or compromises as Trump fancifully reckons. Russia is right to insist on all its demands for security and respect.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... indicated/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Mar 02, 2025 1:23 pm

Humiliation in the Oval Office
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 02/03/2025

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The day had been quiet. Only 24 hours had passed since the placid meeting between Keir Starmer and Donald Trump, in which the US president pretended not to remember having called Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator and now defined him as “the best president for Ukraine”. Macron and Starmer had succeeded in flattering Trump enough with their visits to ensure that the American leader did not reject the idea of ​​a peacekeeping mission by European NATO member countries as a guarantee of peace once the agreement was reached. In their attempt to appease some of their interlocutor’s pro-peace instincts, both the French and British leaders had opted for a tactic of correcting Trump, but doing so from a close distance and always with a smile. The image of Emmanuel Macron putting his hand on his American counterpart's knee to insist that the European Union has contributed more than Washington to the Ukrainian war effort and that it has not done so on credit or that of Starmer recalling that European countries have provided "real money" are examples of this. In front of the press, both leaders praised Trump's ability to "change the conversation" and his desire for peace and left the most controversial parts of the negotiation for private meetings. This is the case of the American participation in the security guarantees that Ukraine has been demanding since the possibility of a peace negotiation began to be discussed. Starmer remained stoic, for example, when Trump asked him if the United Kingdom could take on Russia on its own, despite the fact that the answer to that question is a clear no. That is why the United Kingdom and France have made every effort this week to attract Donald Trump to their position.

Everything had been set up for Volodymyr Zelensky to take advantage of the diplomatic efforts of France and the United Kingdom, which were torpedoed in some ways by the belligerence of the European Union, which was reflected in Marco Rubio's snub of Kaja Kallas during his visit to Washington, where a meeting between the leaders of the US and EU diplomacy had already been arranged. Despite Kallas' explicit militarism, the week had been dominated by fine words, mentions of peace and the omission of the difference between the allies on the definition of that concept. Zelensky arrived at the White House confident that he had an agreement on which he would continue to negotiate. In his appearance on Fox News to try to fix the catastrophe that had occurred in the Oval Office, the Ukrainian president insisted that the mineral extraction agreement was only the first step to obtaining the security guarantees from the United States that Kiev seeks. Even after the public rebuke he received from Donald Trump and JD Vance live in front of the entire world press, Zelensky, who has not yet understood the asymmetrical nature of his relationship with the United States, insisted that security guarantees are part of this agreement and demanded its negotiation. Hours earlier, Donald Trump had declared to the media that Volodymyr Zelensky wanted to return to the White House immediately, but he could not allow it. To the contempt shown by JD Vance, the attack by Donald Trump and a whole series of messages of support for the US president published on the networks by the Republican establishment , we must add what was published by the Fox News journalist who was in the White House. In case there was any doubt, the cancellation of the press conference and lunch after the meeting, when the mineral extraction agreement was to be signed, was an initiative of Donald Trump, whose team, visibly upset, encouraged Zelensky and the Ukrainian delegation to leave the president's residence.

The visit had begun in an ironic tone, to which Zelensky responded with a certain surprise. “He dressed up today,” he had commented on two occasions, both when he saw the Ukrainian president leave and to the press after greeting him. The question of Zelensky’s attire is one of the insignificant details that are gaining more attention among the part of Trump’s team that despises the Ukrainian president and wants to disassociate itself from a war that they perceive as Joe Biden’s own. At the forefront of this trend is Representative Marjorie Taylor Green, whose partner, a journalist for one of the many American far-right media outlets, was the one who used the little time available to the press to ask the world leaders who sit in the Oval Office if he will wear a suit again. The moment annoyed Zelensky, who insisted that he will do so after the war, when he will wear “something like what you wear, even better.” It was the beginning of the end. Despite the friendly tone of the first few minutes, the situation turned into a complete disaster when a three-way conversation between Trump, JD Vance and Zelensky turned into a heated debate in which the Ukrainian leader publicly raised his voice and appeared, arms crossed, on the defensive and trying to butt in while the US president ordered him to shut up because “you've already said too much.”

As has been seen in all the media by now, as well as in the countless memes it has produced, the discussion started with a question to Donald Trump in which JD Vance called out in favour of negotiation, which led to a debate in which the American president pretended to be a chair umpire in a tennis match. When Vance reproached Zelensky for not wanting to make peace, the Ukrainian president lost his main asset, the media savvy that his experience in the world of show business gave him, and exploded. “His job was to get the best possible deal at the meeting. Considering what Trump had said in the last two weeks, it wasn’t much. Even a vague guarantee that arms supplies would continue could have been considered a victory, and Trump basically gave it before the storm broke, answering a question from the BBC ,” wrote journalist David Maria De Luca yesterday, with extensive experience in Ukraine.

Beyond Donald Trump's ambush, whether premeditated or unexpected at the time, it has become clear that Zelensky opted for the strategy least favorable to his cause. Confronting Donald Trump, contradicting him, denying him the right to speak, speaking while he tries to continue speaking and being rude to the vice president, to whom he dedicated a softly heard insult in Ukrainian, led to a two-on-one in which Zelensky was unable to maintain his composure in front of a grown-up Vance who hardly needed any arguments.

Incredibly, Zelensky tried to respond to Vance’s demand for diplomacy by recalling the precedent of the Minsk agreements, more specifically the Normandy Format summit of 2019. There, according to Zelensky, a ceasefire was signed – a fake one, the ceasefire signed was five years old – and a prisoner exchange “which Putin then did not do”, which is also false. The prisoner exchange was the only result of that summit, apart from the gas transit agreement that Ukraine had been begging for for months. Forgetting that he has publicly admitted that it was at that summit that he notified Merkel and Macron that Ukraine could not – and did not want to – implement the Minsk agreements, Zelensky also accused Putin of violating that ceasefire, adding “JD, what diplomacy?” “I am referring to the kind of diplomacy that will end the destruction of your country,” the vice president confidently replied, who also did not suffer from Zelensky’s reproach for not having visited Ukraine. “I’ve seen the stories,” Vance replied, referring to busification , the forced conscription that is not usually a topic of conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky. The discussion led to the oft-repeated image in which Vance accuses Ukraine of “playing with the third world war” and Trump, already very upset, insisted that Ukraine “has no cards” and that it takes advantage of the ones that it assumes by having the United States on its side. The culmination was the moment in which the Ukrainian president stated “we are alone,” a blatant falsehood that Trump took as an offense to, to which he replied that, without his help, the war would have been over “in two weeks.” “Yes, of course, in three days, I heard that from Putin,” Zelensky replied with a new falsehood that ended up causing Donald Trump’s anger.

Hours after being basically thrown out of the White House, an incoherent and hesitant Zelensky, clearly affected by what had happened, insisted on Fox News on the importance of the historical relationship between the two countries, a speech that is hardly going to be suggestive for the audience of Donald Trump's favorite channel, whose team and friendly press had already taken to social media to reaffirm their support. "There was no ambush," wrote Marc Thiessen, a conservative columnist who had encouraged a deal like the one Trump had managed to extract from Ukraine weeks ago. "Z had everything going for him to succeed. All he had to do was not get into a public fight and sign the minerals agreement. It was not difficult. A lot of work had been done to make it possible for him to have a moment of success, he squandered it and refused to apologize," he said.

“Zelensky should apologize for this fiasco,” Marco Rubio said on CNN , adding that “he didn’t have to act like an adversary of the United States. To end this conflict, you have to sit at the negotiating table with Russia. If you threaten Putin, swear, make unrealistic demands, you’re not going to get a deal. There will be no peace and all the horrors you’ve talked about will continue.” Earlier, on social media, he had thanked Trump “for standing up for America in a way that no president has had the courage to do before. Thank you for putting America first. America is with you,” a message reposted by General Keith Kellogg, the most pro-Ukraine member of Trump’s team, commenting that “as the president has ALWAYS done, he has stood up for America. America first. The world saw it live today.” And more worryingly for Zelensky, even the staunch Lindsey Graham said he should “resign, send someone you can do business with or change.” The senator had questioned whether Zelensky was “recoverable” and whether the United States would ever be able to negotiate with him.

Perhaps the most important intervention of the night was that of Scott Bessent, who in an appearance on Laura Ingraham's show on Fox News described what happened as "one of the biggest own goals in the history of diplomacy." The Secretary of the Treasury also recounted his version of the bilateral meeting he held with the Ukrainian president in Kiev, in which he presented the first draft of the mineral extraction agreement, which made Ukraine an extractive colony of the United States. Bessent presented the document as "a message to the Russians" with which Washington intended to say that "we not only have common values, but common interests," making this agreement that only benefited the United States the substitute for security guarantees that Marco Rubio has also defended. According to Bessent, during the 45-minute meeting “at high decibel levels,” Zelensky refused to sign the document, something that was already known and which is, by all accounts, the starting point that led to the personal attack that much of Trumpism has made against the Ukrainian president and finally to the humiliating clash that took place on Friday in the Oval Office in front of the cameras of the most important media outlets in the Western press.

“We had a very meaningful meeting today at the White House,” Trump wrote on his personal social network, adding that “much was learned that we could not have understood without a conversation under such fire and pressure. It is amazing what comes out of emotion and I have determined that President Zelensky is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels that our involvement gives him a great advantage in the negotiations.” Trump seems to have understood Zelensky’s strategy, of whom he said a few months ago that he was ready for peace. “I don’t want an advantage, I want PEACE,” he added, insisting that “he disrespected the United States of America in his precious Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for peace.”

The implications of the meeting were immediate, as the mineral extraction agreement was not signed, despite Andriy Ermak’s attempt. What will become of that agreement, how European countries will translate the strong displays of support for Zelensky into tangible assistance to continue the war, and what will happen to US military supplies are questions that, for the moment, remain up in the air. For now, officials from Trump’s team have leaked to The Washington Post that “the Trump administration is considering ending all ongoing shipments of military aid to Ukraine in response to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s remarks in the Oval Office on Friday and his perceived intransigence in the peace process.” The threat of “make a deal or we’re out” was uttered publicly. The process is back to square one.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/02/humil ... acho-oval/

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Ukraine’s Four Coming Collapses, Parts 1-2
byGordonhahn
March 1, 2025

I wrote some time back: “With the front collapsing and the army on the verge of dissolving, Zelenskiy’s post-Maidan regime is deeply divided and in danger of dissolution, which could bring state collapse, internecine warfare, and widespread chaos” (https://gordonhahn.com/2024/12/10/the-s ... revisited/). Below, I unpack these four imminent or potential collapses – collapses of the battlefront, Ukrainian army, Maidan regime, and Ukrainian state itself – , as this problem is crucially important to the issue of war or peace in Ukraine as well as the challenges that will be faced in any reconstruction. A dysfunctional Ukrainian army, regime and state will be disable Kiev from concluding any peace process and treaty that U.S. President Donald Trump or others might develop. In fact, the peace effort in which Trump is beginning to enlist Russian President Vladimir Putin will almost surely be foiled by a cascade of two or more of four momentous dysfunctions, collapses, and crises that appear to await Ukraine unless the war ends or a drastic change occurs in the correlation of Russian and NATO-Ukrainian forces. The first two of these collapses, of the front and the army, are certain to occur this year. The latter two – of the Maidan regime and Ukrainian state – could be held off until next year.

Ukraine’s Collapsing Defense Fronts

Ukraine’s defensive fronts have been slowly failing and increasingly collapsing over the last year. All last year, Russian territorial gains and, for the most part of the year, Ukrainian casualties have increased with each passing month, as I predicted would be the case over a year ago (https://youtu.be/P_MJi5H6HKU?si=rxRiaE0EglSgbclw at the 1:00:45 mark). The infamous Institute for the Study of War, a DC outfit that relies on Ukrainian propaganda and turns into ‘data’, falsely claimed: “Russian forces gained 4,168 square kilometers (1,609 square miles, GH), largely comprised of fields and small settlements in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, at a reported cost of over 420,000 casualties in 2024. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on December 30 that Russian forces suffered 427,000 casualties in 2024. ISW has observed geolocated evidence to assess that Russian forces advanced 4,168 square kilometers in 2024, indicating that Russian forces have suffered approximately 102 casualties per square kilometer of Ukrainian territory seized”(www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r ... er-31-2024).The propaganda element here lies mostly in the claim that Russia territorial gains were “largely comprised of fields and small settlements” and in the institute’s Russian casualty figures. The Russians seized ‘largely fields and small settlements’ because Ukraine’s landscape, like any country’s, is largely unsettled land and small villages. However, Russia seized several small towns and the key Ukrainian strongholds of Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Kurakhove, Selydove, Novosilevke, Toretsk, and almost all of Chasov Yar. The Russians may not have suffered 420,000 casualties in the course of the entire war, no less in 2024 alone. For 2024, the reliable Mediazona project — which, in affiliation with the BBC and the Russian opposition media outlet ‘Meduza” scours the Internet sources, social media, obituaries, and regional government announcements — found 120,000 Russians killed in battle between the beginning of the country’s ‘special military operation’ in February 2022 and the end of 2024. It found that at least 31,481 Russian soldiers died between January 1, 2024, and December 17, 2024 (https://zona.media/casualties, as posted on 3 February 2025). Even if one increases this by 50 percent, taking into account the typical 1:3 ratio of killed to wounded, one arrives only at a figure of some 180,000 Russian casualties in 2024—half of Ukrainian/ISW claims.

What’s going on here? The acceleration of what I called Russia’s ‘attrit and advance’ strategy was played down by ISW by accompanying the data on territorial gains with the Ukrainian Defense Minister’s and other Ukrainian military sources on Russian casualties in order to give the impression of massive Russian losses in disproportion to ‘modest’ territorial gains. This is done to support the Western myth that Russia throws away the lives of its soldiers in ‘human wave’ attacks. ISW studiously avoids the negative comparison perspective by omitting any mention of Ukrainian casualties, imitating the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and U.S. funded ‘Ukrainian’ news outlets such as Ukrainskaya pravda(www.pravda.com.ua/eng/).

Raw data, minus spin, shows that Russian forces’ territorial advances indeed did increase throughout the year on a nearly monthly basis with the possible exception of December, which saw a decline from November. As Western media finally began to come clean as to the fallacy of the ‘Ukraine is winning’ propaganda line in autumn of last year, the New York Times referenced the data of a military expert with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, Pasi Paroinen. It turned out that Russian gains were being made all along the front line from the north in Kharkiv to the south in Zaporozhe. Paroinen’s measurement of overall Russian gains through the first ten months of 2024 confirmed my own expectation of an intensifying Russian advance forward. Russian advances in that period amounted to over 1,800 square kilometers (about 1,200 sq. mi.) and occurred at an increasingly

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SOURCE: https://x.com/Inkvisiit/status/18426068 ... 59/photo/1

accelerated pace: “Half of Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine so far this year were made in the past three months alone.“ “In August, Ukraine’s defensive lines buckled, and Russia rapidly advanced 10 miles.” In October, Russia made its largest territorial gains since the summer of 2022, as Ukrainian lines buckled under sustained pressure. October’s gains amounted to “more than 160 square miles of land in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region” alone (www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/31/ ... -maps.html). Russian forces advanced 2,356 square kilometers forward in September, October, and November 2024, making 56.5 percent of their 2024 territorial gains during this period (www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r ... -5-2024and www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r ... er-31-2024).November turned out to be Russian forces’ most successful month in terms of territorial gains in 2024, “advancing at the notably higher rate of 27.96 square kilometers per day” in that month(www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r ... -5-2024and www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r ... er-31-2024).

ISW was careful not to compare Russia’s territorial gains in 2024 with those made in 2023, so as not to underline the crucially important trend of accelerating Russian advances and Ukrainian retreats, but France 24 Television took up the slack. It noted that the Russian army advanced in 2024 “seven times more than in 2023,” taking “610 square kilometres in October and 725 square kilometres in November. Those two months saw the Russians capture the most territory since March 2022, in the early weeks of the conflict. Russia’s advance slowed in December, coming to 465 square kilometres in the first 30 days of the month. But it is already nearly four times bigger than in the same month of the previous year and two-and-a-half times more than in December 2022 (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... data-shows).

Now, a major collapse of Ukraine’s defense fronts along all or nearly the entire line of combat – which stretches from Kherson just north of Crimea to the east, then north through Donetsk to Kharkiv and Sumy – is imminent. Some fronts may hold longer but are unlikely to survive 2025. Russian forces are beginning to encircle the crucial industrial, mining, and transport hub of Pokrovsk, After its fall, which is perhaps two months away, Moscow’s army will have a relatively unimpeded march to Dnipro, Zaporozhia, and other less southern points on the Dnieper River. Then the territorial advance will continue to accelerate at an ever more rapid pace and could lead to major breakthroughs to the Dnepr (Dnieper) River at any time now because of the already disastrous and deteriorating state of Ukraine’s armed forces.

Ukraine’s Collapsing Army

With the collapse of the front should come simultaneously or shortly following the collapse of Ukrainian military. The state of the Ukrainian military is indeed grave. It is not just suffering from a growing shortage of weapons but a shortage of personnel, discipline, morale, and capacity, which is crippled by corruption. 2024’s military mobilization has failed. Desertion and refusal to obey orders is rampant, and corruption not only plagues recruitment but also promotes high levels of absence without leave, reducing the number of Ukrainian troops who are actually fighting at the front.

The military mobilization passed and being carried out this year with such a debilitating effect on the economy and society is failing to replace current losses at the front with completely inexperienced recruits with low to no morale (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8yMTGKURYU). There are reportedly no more volunteers, and by spring some Ukrainian officials report the situation will be irretrievable. Moreover, almost all new recruits are old or unmotivated, The Economist reports (https://ctrana.one/news/475629-nekhvatk ... omist.html). Commanders at the front, such as commander of the drone battallion of Ukraine’s 30th mechanized brigade, confirm that the 2024 mobilization has been an absolute failure, and there are now too few men to replace battle losses (https://ria.ru/20250113/mobilizatsiya-1 ... 7753fbda13). The mobilization that does occur is carried out by harsh, frequently violent measures. Verkhovna Rada deputy Aleksandr Bakumov from Zelenskiy’s own ‘Servants of the People’ party declared in session that mobilisation in Kharkiv Region is coerced, resembling filtration of Ukrainian population (referring to practice of detaining, beating, and torturing citizens of occupied areas in an ostensible search for fighters and collaborators), with exits from the city blockaded by ‘recruitment’ press gangs and lawyers of mobilized men get beaten. Small businesses are undergoing mass closures because of lack of workers willing to go outside for fear of being pressed into the army. Others have reported falsification of data at recruitment offices to justify recruitment (https://ctrana.one/news/478468-v-verkho ... enija.html and https://x.com/leonidragozin/status/1881280945644605814). There are numerous reports and videos of violence being used by recruitment gangs. In the end, what can be said for an army, the military system of which needs to force citizens to fight, even forcefully seizing priests leading a religious procession and sending them to the front? (https://ctrana.one/news/476680-v-rovens ... erkvi.html).

In addition, many men are fleeing the country in greater numbers in order to avoid Ukraine’s desperate and draconian forced mobilization measures, sometimes at great risk to their lives and to sociopolitical stability. Most recently, Western governments have reportedly been pressuring Kiev to extend the mobilization to the age cohort of 18-25, which would bring a near catastrophic demographic collapse to a population already depleted by some 30 percent because of war deaths and emigration (https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war- ... 819cc5618f). Even the recrutiment centers themselves are attempting to avoid the draft. When Rada deputies proposed closing the personnel shortage by creating a brigade from among the mobilization gangs, the chairman of the mobilization centers claimed there were not enough of them to form full brigade (https://ctrana.one/news/475129-v-ttsk-o ... front.html). Low numbers of volunteers and failed mobilization are creating distoritions in force structure. ‘Zombi-brigades’ or ‘paper brigades’ are partially-manned units merelycalled brigades in order to impress Western donors and facilitate corruption for commanders who seize the salaries designated for non-existing personnel (https://ctrana.one/news/476359-bezuhlaj ... skaja.html).

The large number of desertions from the Ukrainian military, a phenomenon wholly ignored in the Western media for three years, were revealed finally in November to have exceeded 100,000 since the war began (https://apnews.com/article/deserters-aw ... 363c9e5ea0). This would amount to perhaps more than 10 precent of the Ukrainian army at its present size, given Zelenskiy’s recent claim it numbers 800,000 (https://t.me/stranaua/183652). Moreover, more than half those desertions occurred in the first ten months of 2024 alone (https://apnews.com/article/deserters-aw ... 363c9e5ea0). This is already desertion on a massive scale and includes mass desertions (https://www.ft.com/content/9b25288d-825 ... b00ad8a03f; https://ctrana.one/news/476730-zhurnali ... v-vsu.html). Military blogger Yurii Butusov, Servants of the People deputy Maryana Bezuglaya, and others reported late last year on the desertion of an entire 1,000-man brigade trained in France immediately upon their arrival at the front. This may have been a case of commander’s unsuccessful attempt to form what are called ‘zombi-brigades’ (https://ctrana.one/news/476748-jurij-bu ... skaja.html and https://ctrana.one/news/476359-bezuhlaj ... skaja.html). Indeed, military personnel have questioned the recent practice of creating new brigades when existing ones are woefully undermanned, apparently suspecting the corruption scheme lurking behind this practice (https://ctrana.one/news/474755-v-vsu-ob ... chikh.html). One Ukrainian commander told a Polish newspaper that sometimes in battle there are more deserters than killed and wounded (https://t.me/stranaua/180095).

Desertions are one symptom of lax discipline and especially low morale increasingly plaguing the Ukrainian army. Commanders are reporting that 90 percent of their troops on there frontlines are new, coercively mobilised men (https://ctrana.news/news/475190-v-vsu-s ... -ttsk.html; https://t.me/rezident_ua/25314 (video); and https://ctrana.one/news/476730-zhurnali ... v-vsu.html). Sources in the Ukrainian General Staff report similarly (https://ctrana.one/news/476708-kuda-isc ... oldat.html). Thus, desertions are accompanied by unauthorised retreats, which are increasing in frequency. For example, hundreds ran from battle at one point last autumn in Vugledar (Ugledar) before it fell (www.ft.com/content/9b25288d-8258-4541-81b0-83b00ad8a03f). Vugledar was once a solid stronghold, which in 2023 Russian forces stormed tens of times with no results. Ukrainians soldiers are refusing to carry out operational orders because they amount to suicide operations and are beginning to surrender as whole units, in one case nearly a full battalion (e.g., 92nd Combat). Indeed, refusals to follow orders or undertake counteroffensive measures are increasing. In one recent case, the Azov Brigade’s chief of staff, Bogdan Koretich, accused a Ukrainian general of such poor command that he was described of being resonsible for more Ukrainian war dead than the Russians, forcing his removal (www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/24/7462293/). At lower levels, commanders are being fired in large numbers (https://strana.news/news/467266-itohi-8 ... raine.html). At the same time, field commanders publicly criticize high-ranking commanders and staff for strategic incompetence and negligence (https://ctrana.one/news/476695-ofitser- ... eshka.html). One reason for the disintegrating discipline and morale is that there is no relief for troops, as there is no long term demobilization or time away from the front other than that coming from episodic brief rotations of troops—a consequence of insufficient troop numbers. Soldiers and their relatives have been lobbying for well over year for a law on demobilization that would routinize long rotations for troops to visit home, but no such law is visible on the horizon. Such would likely lead to a fatal troop shortage and the Ukrainian army’s full rout on the battlefield.

However, perhaps the main problem in the Ukrainian army, as in the rest of the Ukrainian state and society, is corruption. It is endemic and omnipresent in arms production and procurement, mobilization (draft evasion by bribe), purchasing of leave and absence from the front, and manning brigades. One Ukrainian Defense Minister told a journalist that the problem is „catastrophic“ (https://ctrana.one/news/476708-kuda-isc ... oldat.html). Independent Rada deputy Anna Skorokhod claims that only 15 percent (!) of servicemen on the personnel roles are serving at the front, with large numbers either non-existent (dead souls) in service or having bribed their way into hiding somewhere in the rear (https://ctrana.one/news/476708-kuda-isc ... oldat.html and https://t.me/southfronteng/47472).

This is how Ukrainian officers describe the mass-scale of corruption in the army. Ukrainian army captain: “Due to false reports about the presence of personnel, the commanders of the directions receive false information. And they operate with ‚dead souls‘, developing combat plans. For example, somewhere the Russians have broken through a section of the front, the commander gives an order to a certain brigade to send a battalion with an attached group to reinforce. In fact, the battalion has been gone for a long time, its number is no more than a company — some have bought off their way to the rear or deserted. As a result, there is nothing to close the breakthrough, because of the threat, the flanks of neighboring brigades begin to crumble.”

Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff source: „If we take how many Russian troops we have at the front on paper, then if the Russians have an advantage in numbers, it is less than twofold. But that is on paper. In practice, the situation is different. Let’s imagine a separate section of the front. According to the papers, there are 100 people on our side, and 150 on the Russian side. That is, the enemy’s advantage is insignificant. With such numbers, it is quite possible to keep the defense. But during a real battle, the situation is radically different. At most 40 of our 100 people participate in it. And often even less. The rest are deserters, who simply refuse to fight, and the like. And Russians have 140-145 out of 150 people going into battle. In total, the advantage has already more than tripled. Why does this situation exist? Our army was initially based on a core of volunteers, ATO veterans, and highly motivated soldiers who went into battle without coercion and took the initiative. Russians had a big problem with motivation from the very beginning. But they worked on this issue and gradually created their own military-repressive system of coercion. And it works by sending soldiers into battle and stopping cases of insubordination and desertion. We did not create anything like this. And I doubt that we are even capable of creating such a system. Our state system is too weak and too corrupt for this. And now that the volunteers have died, died of injury, or simply burned out, and the army is being replenished with fake conscripts who have close to zero motivation, there are no ways to force them to fight. A separate problem is the quality of the command staff and the combat management system. There are also very big failures here, because many experienced commanders died and a worthy replacements do not always come after them.” (https://ctrana.one/news/476708-kuda-isc ... oldat.html).

Moreover, corruption reaches to the top of the Ukrainian military establishment (as it does the civilian). The suspension of U.S. assistance to Ukraine until April and the investigation of U.S. weapons provision to Kiev announded by the new administration of President Donald Trump reverberated in the Ukrainian capitol leading the opening of an investigation into procurement practices of the Defense Ministry and of Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, whose predecessor Aleksey Reznikov, was also ousted under suspicion of massive corruption (https://ctrana.one/news/479090-v-tspk-z ... erova.html). Umerov moved immediately to fire the head of the procurement organization, but she refused to leave her office (https://ctrana.one/news/478920-marina-b ... kupok.html). There have been rumors for months that Zelenskiy was seeking to oust Umerov, and in the wake of the investigation announcement calls for his resignation are mounting (https://ctrana.one/articles/analysis/47 ... orony.html). This adds crisis to crisis, dealing one more blow to the military establishment at a pivotal time during a catastrophic war.

Ukraine’s endemic and universal corruption has seen the fake or outright lack of construction of fortifications at the front, bringing us back to the previous section on Kiev’s collapsing frontlines (https://ctrana.one/news/464654-foto-ned ... lasti.html).

This is state of corruption, low morale, and incapacity reminiscent of the late, recently collapsed Syrian army of Bashir Assad.

This sort of Ukrainian army or its collapse is a threat to both the Maidan regime and Ukrainian state. The troops of a collapsed Ukrainian army will become a force that can be marshaled by a military or civilian leader towards the execution of a coup and perhaps a neofascist revolution or by peripheral and local figures to establish separate fiefdoms. Recall that during the Maidan demonstrations, leaders in Lvov and elsewhere first broached the idea of separating from then Yanukovych-controlled Ukraine. After the Maidan revolt and Yanukovych’s overthrow, it was Crimea and Donbass that moved towards separatism.

The Ukrainian Regime Splits, Then Falls

With the military’s collapse or even on the verge of its collapse, one should expect intensifying political instability with internal infighting intensifying as whatever remains of something resembling a front line moves towards Kiev. Russian forces will reach the Dnieper by this summer and perhaps take territories along much or all of its length this year. With the fall of industrial giants, such as the cities of Dnipro and Zaporozhe, rump Ukraine will be reduced to a country of western Ukrainian shopkeepers in a decimated economy, society, and polity, assuming the Russians assume to stop at the Dnieper. Already HUR chief Kyryll Budanov and Office of the President (OP) chief Andriy Yermak are at odds with each other, with rumors circulating for months that Zelenskiy is preparing to fire Budanov (https://gordonhahn.com/2024/12/10/the-s ... revisited/ and https://ctrana.news/articles/analysis/4 ... ektiv.html). In late January, Pro-Maidan regime Ukrainskaya pravda reported that Budanov shocked Rada deputies in a closed door meeting by stating that if peace talks did not begin soon, processes would begin that would lead to Ukraine’s destruction (www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2025/01/27/7495459/ and https://membrana-cdn.media/video/upr/cu ... p4?r=62418). There has been some cooperation in the opposition between Zelenskiy-fired armed forces commander Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy and former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (https://gordonhahn.com/2024/12/10/the-s ... revisited/; https://www.politico.eu/article/kursk-r ... zelenskyy/; and https://ctrana.news/articles/analysis/4 ... ektiv.html). Both have been investigated for supposed treason by Zelenskiy’s prosecutors and the secret police, the SBU, and subject to political attacks by the OP (https://www.facebook.com/story.php?stor ... 0596862745). The head of the parliamentary group of Zelenskiy’s ‘Servants of the people’ party in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, David Arakhamiya is said to be on the outs with OP and will soon be replaced as party group chairman (https://ctrana.one/articles/analysis/47 ... halja.html). Arakhmiya is one of the few Ukrainian figures to acknowledge that Ukraine had nearly concluded a peace agreement with Russia in March 2022 top put a quick end to the war but that the West scuttled the agreement by refusing security guarantees and urging Kiev to fight. Recently, as the new Trump administration has out peace negotiations back on the agenda, Arakhamiya seemed to encourage the process – one Zelenskiy has been cool if not bhostile to – by noting he was in contact with Kremlin-tied Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and good ties with Republicans in the U.S., likely increasing Zelenskiy’s suspicions of Arakhamiya’s loyalty (https://ctrana.one/articles/analysis/47 ... halja.html).

This regime infighting is compounded by the unfulfilled revolutionary aspirations of its ultranationalist and neofascist wing, which led the Maidan takeover in the first place a decade ago in February 2024. Most recently, the founder and former leader of the neofascist Right Sector groupand and advisor to former Ukrainian army top commander Zaluzhniy, Dmitro Yarosh, repeated his call for the completion of the neofascist revolution on his Facebook page: “As it turned out, during the Dignity Revolution and the Russian-Ukrainian War, Ukrainian nationalists became the main factor in the Ukrainian national-liberation struggle in the 21st century… I am a Ukrainian Nationalist – sounds proud both in Ukraine and across the world. The next power after the War for Independence should be nationalist. Otherwise, we will once again be led down an unbreakable cycle of national humiliation, corruption, degeneracy, moral degradation, economic decline, inferiority and defeat… Therefore, after the War for Independence, the wise, courageous and noble should rule in Ukraine. Glory to the Nation!” (www.facebook.com/dyastrub/posts/pfbid07 ... REvyiNgvil). The neofascist Azov Brigade’s leader and commander Andrey Biletskiy sounded the alarm about the army in December and called for wide-ranging reforms perhaps in a bid for military and even state leadership (https://t.me/rezident_ua/25291). In sum, the Zelenskiy government has opponents, even enemies in every camp in Russian politics, from the military to moderate nationalists to the neofascists, even in his own largely discredited and corrupt Servants of the People party (https://ctrana.one/articles/analysis/47 ... halja.html).

These developments inside the elite are compounded by Zelenskiy’s collapsing popularity and trust ratings in society. Gen. Zaluzhniy is favored over Zelenskiy in the most recent opinion surveys in Ukraine. Ukrainians’ trust in Mr Zelensky declined precipitously from 80% in May 2023 to 45% a year later, according to America’s National Democratic Institute (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024 ... omatically). A recent Ukrainian opinion poll by the Social Monitoring Center in Kiev shows that only 16 percent of Ukrainians are prepared to vote for Zelenskiy in any future presidential election, and 60 percent would prefer he did not run. At the same time, Zelenskiy-dismissed Zaluzhniy would lead in any such election and be backed by 27 percent, according to the poll (www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-w ... -stzqf5bpn). According to the Presidential Office’s earlier in-house opinion polls as well, Zelenskiy today would lose a presidential election to Zaluzhniy. The fired general registers as Ukraine’s most popular political and military figure, according to other recent polls (https://ctrana.news/news/459385-opros-o ... ltaty.html). In trust ratings, Zelenskiy has fallen to third place – after Zaluzhniy and the head of military intelligence (HRU) Budanov, whom the President’s Office is reportedly trying to fire (https://ctrana.one/articles/analysis/47 ... asti-.html). The stumbling block may be Budanov’s long-standing ties to U.S. and Western intelligence (www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/world/europe ... a-war.html and http://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/17/us/po ... pport.html). In a more recent survey both Zaluzhniy (71.6 percent) and Budanov (46.7) retained hire trust ratings than Zelenskiy (40.8 percent) (https://t.me/stranaua/183673). All of the above strongly suggests that the regime is splitting behind the scenes, and Zelenskiy cannot hold the situation together as crises at the front and in the army mount. The Maidan regime is threatened by a regime split into competing factions each putting forward its own claim over the sovereignty of the Ukrainian state or parts thereof. Zaluzhniy’s reported contacts with oppositionist Poroshenko would mark the defection of a key Maidan regime actor to the political opposition to Zelenskiy. Such defections are instrumental in regime transformations, whether transitional or revolutionary. One needs only to recall the effect Yeltsion’s defection from the reforming CPSU Soviet regime of Mikhail Gorbachev had on Soviet politics, aggravating polarization both to the ‘left’ and ‘right’ of Gorbachev’s perestroishchiki and leading to the August hardline coup against them both and ultimately the collapse of the USSR.

On top of all this, the regime’s stability is being shaken by the Trump administration’s to push for peace talks with Moscow and, just recently, its implied move to have Zelenskiy removed from the presidency to facilitate those negotiations. The February 2 call by Trump’s envoy for his Ukrainian peace initiative, Fen. Keith Kellogg, for the convening of presidential elections by the end of the year seems the death knell for Zelenskiy, given Gen. Zaluzhniy’s far greater popularity. For Zelenskiy, an election loss or a decision not to run would be a saving grace compared to the other ways he might be removed from power. But just Kellogg’s suggestion, not to mention an actual presidential campaign run as the front and army collapse, will intensify the power struggle, perhaps to the breaking point.

Then there is the very real potential of a popular uprising, as the economy deteriorates and corruption is publicised, especially as it has to do with the army’s difficulties. Ukrainians already view prices to be a greater threat than the Russian army, according to one recent poll conducted by Kiev’s sociological research group ‘Reinting’. The poll showed more Ukrainians cited price increases and the general state of the economy (32 percent and 33 percent, respectively) as more worrisome than the expansion of Ukrainian territory occupied by the Russian army (25 percent) (https://ratinggroup.ua/ru/research/ukra ... 22024.html). Social discontent with the regime’s shortcomings, brought into sharp relief by the extravagant lives visible on the Internet of Zelenskiy’s family, his entourage, and the Ukrainian elite in general is a time bomb waiting to explode.

This Maidan regime crisis is likely to spark a state crisis, perhaps state failure and territorial collapse. Domestic infighting and instability could very well lead to military and/or palace coups and even internecine warfare and the division of parts of the country by mutually antagonistic Ukrainian factions of one sort or another.

The Failure and Collapse of the Ukrainian State

The collapse of the regime could lead to the collapse of the state organizationally and administratively, leaving no functioning central government. This would facilitate territorial dissolution through secessions by warlords, ethnic minority-dominated regions, and/or revanchist takeovers by foreign powers: Poland, Rumania, not to mention Russia. All this could be compounded by economic dislocation and social chaos, leaving both Europe and Russia with a major security problem on their borders. One only needs to recall the Ukrainian national separatism that arose in Lvov and other western Ukrainian regions during the Maidan demonstrations. These early separatist steps preceded those taken in Crimea and Donbass but months later after the collapse of Yanukovych regime and the victory of the Maidan uprising. Below, I review various aspects or phases of the potential collapse of Ukraine as a state: state disorganization and functional failure; territorial collapse on a Ukrainian nationalist and/or quasi-criminal basis; minority ethnonational separatism; and foreign national revanchism.

The Ukrainian state is vulnerable to organization incapacitation and administrative failure as a result of an increasingly dysfunctional economy and its economy’s and state budget’ nearly full dependence on foreign assistance, loans, and grants. I and others have noted the destruction of Ukraine’s energy grid and other infrastructure and the additional debilitating effect of military mobilization on businesses. On the background of such grave difficulties and what can only be expected to be greater economic dislocation caused by the strengthening and advancing Russian army, Ukraine’s main donor, the U.S., has put a freeze on all foreign assistance, excluding only Israel and Egypt from the executive order, as announced by the Trump administration. This will soon leave the Ukrainian government without the funding necessary to govern, provide public goods, and the like. Ukrainians already view prices to be a greater threat than the Russian army, as noted above (https://t.me/stranaua/185326). Thus, Ukraine’s loss of sovereignty to the West, mostly to Washington, means total collapse with the withdrawal of funding. This is already apparent in the most transparent of the USAID corruption disclosures, which revealed that 85 percent of Ukrainian media will have to shut down without USAID’s funds (www.facebook.com/ivan.katchanovski/post ... myJDPeRMWl). One can imagine the destructive impact in others sectors of Ukrainian on the life support of Western assistance: the economy, medical care, social welfare payments, etc. Regional governments, relying on ambitious oligarchs opposed to the Zelenskiy government or even the entire Maidan regime itself, can then be expected to become separate fiefdoms for said oligarchs, setting the stage for regional hoarding of key goods and eventually even separatism.

In addition, Ukraine suffers from an ethnonationally based ‘stateness problem’ driven by ethnic minority-populated regions and foreign legacies encompassing most of western Ukraine. These areas are part of Ukraine as a result of the Soviet defeat of the Nazism in the Great Patriotic War and the Red Army’s resulting occupation of these areas, which were then incorporated into the Soviet Union’s Ukrainian SSR. As I wrote in my book Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the ‘New Cold War’ (McFarland, 2016), today’s Ukrainian state was constructed by Lenin, Stalin, and later Khrushchev (Crimea). Thus, in western Ukraine’s Transcarpathian region there are sub-regions with large Rumanian and Hungarian populations the lands of which previously belonged to then Nazi-allied Rumania and Hungary, respectively. The populations have been subjected to language and other forms of discrimination by the state and its allied Ukrainian ultranationalists and neofascists before Russia’s 2022 invasion. Now they are being brutalized by Zelenskiy’s military mobilization press gangs perhaps disproportionally so compared with ethnic Ukrainian areas. This can feed into a desire for a return to their national homelands either on foot or by appealing for their rescue by incorporation into Rumania and Hungary, respectively. Territorially speaking, this is a far lesser danger than the potential of Polish revanchism, which would mean the dissolution of the Ukrainian state. Fortunately for Kiev, such developments are for now a remote possibility. But should the Ukrainian state begin to disintegrate, no less experience internecine warfare or nascent civil war, the potential of external revanchism becomes more kinetic.

Conclusion

There is nothing inevitable about the cascade of collapses running it full course. Regime and star collapse can still be avoided, but collapse of the regime will come closely behind the front and army collapses. The only ways to forestall or preempt this cascade of collapses in full are a ceasefire, a full-fledged peace agreement, a full-scale NATO military intervention, or Russia’s conquest of all Ukraine. Among these, only a ceasefire agreement is theoretically possible this year, and as early as April a ceasefire could too late or prove ineffective in halting several of these collapses, holding the frontline but unable to forestall the collapse of the army, regime, and state. Roaming bands of unoccupied soldiers with minimal or no salaries will remain a combustible force, and a ceasefire may force the equally combustible crucible of presidential and parliamentary election. In this, one must concur with HUR chief Budanov, who reportedly stated that if Ukraine does not begin peace talks by summer, then processes will begin that could destroy the country. And Budanov’s assertion may be an understatement of the urgency at hand. Trump must put Ukraine at the top of his agenda and pursue a settlement with maximal effort, using all the levers of persuasion Washington still possesses. Otherwise, Ukraine could still blow up in his and all are faces. That Kellogg’s call for elections produced the very next day a statement by Zelenskiy finally supporting negotiations with Moscow and thereby seeking to cut off direct U.S.-Russian talks ‘about Ukraine without Ukraine’ and still mostly clueless Europe is a demonstration of how pressure on the increasingly politically weak and emotionally damaged Zelenskiy could produce quick results. But time is short, and Ukraine’s four collapses await.

https://gordonhahn.com/2025/03/01/ukrai ... parts-1-2/

******

The US Wants to Make Ukraine a Colony
Posted by Internationalist 360° on February 28, 2025



BreakThrough News

The US wants to make Ukraine a colony. The deal Trump and Zelensky are signing forces Ukraine to give its mineral wealth to the US, likely for generations. BT’s Kei Pritsker explains how the US used Ukrainians as cannon fodder only to make them pay for it after.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/02/ ... -a-colony/

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
📍Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of March 2, 2025)

Russian Air Defense Forces shot down 62 Ukrainian drones in 24 hours;

— Ukrainian Armed Forces losses in the area of ​​responsibility of the Center group in 24 hours amounted to 475 soldiers;

— Ukrainian Armed Forces losses in the area of ​​responsibility of the Western group of the Russian Armed Forces amounted to 240 people;

— Ukrainian Armed Forces losses in the area of ​​responsibility of the North and Dnepr groups amounted to 140 soldiers;

— Ukrainian Armed Forces losses in the area of ​​responsibility of the East group in 24 hours amounted to 190 soldiers.

▫️Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense. They defeated formations of four mechanized , a ranger brigades , an assault regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade and three territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Otradnoye, Bogatyr, Voskresenka, Komar, Dneproenergiya, Novopol, Shevchenko, Burlatskoye, Privolnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic, Chervone, Zeleny Gai and Gulyaipole of the Zaporizhia region.

The enemy's losses amounted to 190 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, five cars and four field artillery guns.

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the mechanized , mountain assault , infantry brigades , two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Pyatikhatki, Novodanilovka, Stepovoye, Kamenskoye, Lobkovoe in the Zaporizhia region, Antonovka and Veletskoye in the Kherson region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 115 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, four cars, an electronic warfare station and an ammunition depot.



▫️ Operational-tactical aviation , strike unmanned aerial vehicles , missile forces and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted damage on the infrastructure of military airfields, gas processing facilities that ensure the operation of enterprises of the military-industrial sector of Ukraine, workshops for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles and their storage sites, as well as concentrations of manpower and equipment of the armed formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 147 districts.

▫️ 62 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down by air defense systems .

▫️ In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed: 656 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 45,086 unmanned aerial vehicles, 600 anti-aircraft missile systems, 21,954 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,523 multiple launch rocket systems, 22,200 field artillery pieces and mortars, 32,377 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Mar 03, 2025 12:41 pm

European initiative
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/03/2025

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“Thank you, America, thank you for your support, thank you for this visit. Thank you to the President of the United States, to the Congress and to the American people. Ukraine needs a fair and lasting peace and we are working precisely to achieve it,” wrote Volodymyr Zelensky just a few hours after the entire world witnessed live a public humiliation that has provoked a double reaction. On the one hand, Trumpism has closed ranks to thank Donald Trump for putting America first and defending the presidency against the excesses of a man who demands too much and is not capable of giving thanks or asking for forgiveness. On the other hand, in an equally visceral way, relevant voices from the Ukrainian political scene, including leaders of the radical right, armed and capable of overthrowing a weak president whom they see as an obstacle.

The communications machine that is the Office of the President of Ukraine was also quick to mobilize in defense of its leader. “The President fights for our country, for all those who fight for a just and lasting peace. I support the President in his defense of the interests of our heroic nation. In any situation,” wrote Andriy Ermak, the green cardinal , before again showing gratitude to those who support him, “to those who understand that Ukraine is not just a point on the map. It is Minas Tirith, which contains darkness. We deeply thank the American people for their support, which brings closer the day when the war will become just a memory.” “The position of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is impeccable, well-argued and absolutely correct. A clear understanding of the causes of the war and equally clear explanations of why this war cannot be stopped by demonstrative and unjustified concessions to Russia… Emotions are emotions, but facts are quite concrete… As are reputations,” added Mikhail Podolyak. Faced with the image of the Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, who lowered her head and covered her face with her hands in the face of the catastrophe she witnessed firsthand, Zelensky's team and its main allies have relaunched their crusade to defend the president as the personification of the Ukrainian people's struggle for freedom. Three years after the Russian invasion, when it has become clear that the war is not being fought for freedom and democracy but for power, the speech of February 2022 is being revived to justify the need for a new mobilization of resources to support Ukraine.

“There is an aggressor: Russia. There is a victim: Ukraine. We were right to help Ukraine and sanction Russia three years ago, and we continue to do so. When I say “we”, I mean the Americans, the Europeans, the Canadians, the Japanese and many others. Thank you to all those who have collaborated and continue to collaborate. And I respect those who have fought from the beginning, because they are fighting for their dignity, their independence, their children and the security of Europe,” wrote Emmanuel Macron on social media. “No one wants peace more than the Ukrainians. That is why we are working on a common path towards a fair and lasting peace. Ukraine can rely on Germany and Europe,” added Olaf Scholz. “Dear Zelensky, dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone,” said Donald Tusk. “Ukraine, Spain is with you,” wrote Pedro Sánchez, repeating the message in English and Ukrainian. All these messages and many more were reposted with the comment “thank you for the support” by Volodymyr Zelensky, whose communications team has been disseminating the messages received from his allies since Friday.

The difficulties with the United States, the Trumpist demand for a public apology and the threat of “make a deal or we’re out” have left Ukraine needing to rebuild its alliances and even more dependent on European countries, which are now trying to regroup to ensure that Ukraine has no choice but to accept a hypothetical agreement that Donald Trump could reach with Vladimir Putin without the participation, or with minimal participation, of Ukraine and European countries. That fear, against which the Biden administration and its European allies believed they had protected themselves by making assistance to Ukraine “Trump-proof,” has resurfaced with force after the dispute between kyiv and Washington over the minerals agreement, the personal attack by Trumpists on Volodymyr Zelensky and the public ridicule to which he was subjected in the Oval Office. However, European countries had not understood – or had not wanted to understand – that Donald Trump’s interest was in reaching an economic agreement with both parties, ensuring that the United States would obtain economic benefits in both Russia and Ukraine, and that European countries would bear the cost of the war and any subsequent security guarantees. This is where the rush, problems and doubts arise about how to turn messages of support and public relations acts into something more than slogans published in a coordinated manner on social media. On Saturday, for example, the phrase “be strong, be brave, be fearless” written in messages by Antonio Costa, Ursula von der Leyen and Roberta Metsola caught the attention.

The new slogan of the European Union seeks to recover the discourse of three years ago in defence of Ukraine and to put back at the centre of the debate the moral obligation to continue supporting Ukraine as long as necessary . To this end, Antonio Costa had already called for an urgent summit for 6 March, which Keir Starmer has already announced. The United Kingdom, despite having left the European Union, has found in the Ukrainian question the cause with which to show itself as a continental leader and, together with France, has taken the initiative.

Image

Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential plane landed in the United Kingdom on Saturday afternoon. The Ukrainian president was welcomed at Downing Street by Prime Minister Starmer in a much more friendly and smiling meeting, preceded by an arrival flanked by several hundred people expressing their support for Ukraine. During his meeting with the British Prime Minister , the United Kingdom pledged to deliver 5,000 missiles to Ukraine for air defence and confirmed the granting of a loan worth 2.74 billion euros, a short-term financial relief and a long-term increase in debt without which Ukraine cannot survive. On Sunday afternoon, the “Securing our Future” summit was held in London, to which Starmer had invited a number of select leaders. As happened a few weeks ago with the meeting convened by Emmanuel Macron, the Baltic countries protested their exclusion. Unlike Macron's call, Justin Trudeau, for example, did participate this time, as in the final phase of his mandate, he has made Ukraine one of his main causes.

The main conclusion of this weekend's diplomatic manoeuvres is that in this attempt at damage control, European countries are aware that they cannot act alone. "Can Europe confront Russia in Ukraine without the support of the US military?" asked the BBC yesterday , presenting a dilemma that, at least for the moment, is not real. Even though negotiations have not even begun, European countries and media are already considering what would happen with a European deterrence mission sent to Ukraine after the agreement if a Russian attack were to occur. Everything revolves around what the United States would do. In other words, European countries are aware that their ability to mobilise funding - and in these three years it has become clear that, when there is a will, it is possible to find the necessary funds for a need, especially if it is military - does not translate into military power. “The EU and the US have a common interest in a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, a peace through strength,” said Anouar El Anouni, EU foreign affairs spokesman, stressing that “we must put Ukraine in the strongest possible position in any talks.” As usual, it is all Russia’s fault and “the important thing now is to make sure that we do not fall into the traps that Russia is setting.” Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General, was in the same boat, calling on Ukraine to repair its relationship with the United States. “I think Zelensky has to find some way to repair his relationship with Trump,” he told the BBC . The NATO leader also insisted that Ukraine must “recognise everything that the United States has done” in these three years.

After Friday’s fiasco in the Oval Office, just as a few months ago when Trump started talking about peace or when the conversation with Vladimir Putin was announced, European countries reacted by praising Ukraine, highlighting its courage and bravery – not applicable to all Ukrainian people, but to those who fight on the right side of the front or those who have fled the war to the West and not to the East – and promising a mobilization of “several hundred billion” in defense of the country. However, reality dictates and security guarantees, Ukraine’s main – perhaps only – obsession, continue to depend on Washington’s participation.

“Europe is prepared for contingencies and to help finance our great army. We also need the role of the United States in defining security guarantees: what kind, how much, and when. Once these guarantees are in place, we can talk diplomacy with Russia, Europe, and the United States. The war alone is too long, and we do not have enough weapons to drive them out completely,” Zelensky wrote on Saturday. Despite Trump’s obvious refusal to discuss security guarantees, which he intends to leave to European countries, this step is, as Ukraine has made clear for months, the most important step in the negotiations. Only then can the next step be taken – bringing the EU on board, and finally presenting terms to Russia.

In this task, Keir Starmer announced yesterday that the United Kingdom, France and Ukraine are preparing a joint ceasefire proposal to be presented to the United States, the exceptional and essential country that must give the go-ahead. Judging by Starmer's statements, who said he wants "British boots on the ground and planes in the air," everything indicates that this is an expanded version to include more countries - a coalition of the willing, the same phrase used by George W. Bush for Iraq - of the Anglo-French proposal to send a peace mission of European NATO member countries - which guarantees Russian rejection - that Starmer and Macron presented separately to Donald Trump last week. The attempt by European countries to recompose what was fractured last Friday has begun and the offensive will focus on obtaining those security guarantees that Zelensky demands, not to stop the war, but to start a negotiation that could achieve it later.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/03/iniciativa-europea/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
📍 Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of March 3, 2025) Main:

Over the past 24 hours, Russian air defense systems have shot down two HIMARS projectiles and 88 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs);

— The Russian Armed Forces have hit the infrastructure of military airfields and UAV production workshops;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 605 servicemen, a tank, and four armored vehicles in the Center force grouping zone;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 190 people in the Western force grouping zone in the past 24 hours;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 115 servicemen in the past 24 hours as a result of the actions of the North and Dnepr force groups;

— The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 205 servicemen in the South force grouping zone.

▫️Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense. They defeated formations of three mechanized brigades, a Jaeger brigade, an assault regiment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Poddubnoye, Voskresenka, Otradnoye, Bogatyr, Komar, Dneproenergiya, Shevchenko, Privolnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic and Gulyaipole of the Zaporizhia region.

The enemy's losses amounted to 200 servicemen, a tank, three combat armored vehicles, seven cars and four field artillery guns, including a Polish-made "Krab" self-propelled artillery unit .

▫️Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the mechanized, mountain assault brigades, two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Mykhailivka, Sadovoe in the Kherson region and Malye Shcherbaky in the Zaporizhia region.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen, a tank, four vehicles, an artillery piece, and an electronic warfare station.

▫️ Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, workshops for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles and their storage sites, as well as concentrations of manpower and equipment of the armed formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 139 districts.

▫️ Air defense systems shot down two US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets and 88 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

▫️ In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed : 656 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 45,174 unmanned aerial vehicles, 600 anti-aircraft missile systems, 21,966 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,523 multiple launch rocket systems, 22,215 field artillery pieces and mortars, 32,405 units of special military vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

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Colonelcassad
0:25
How a Victory in 14 Days Turns into a Betrayal😀

US Senator Graham:

February 14. You are the ally I have dreamed of my whole life. What American died defending Ukraine? You take our guns and show everyone who is boss. I am proud to be our ally.

February 28. I don’t know if we can do business with Zelensky anymore. Most Americans have realized that he is not our business partner”

@dimsmirnov175

For Lindsey Graham, changing your shoes in mid-air is like blowing your nose.

(That's my senator...he was anti-Trump until his buddy McCain croaked and 'changed shoes' with alacrity that time too. No shamelessness too great for him...)

Google Translator

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Trump-Zelensky-Vance Blowup: Does Zelensky Regime End with a Bang, Not a Whimper?
Posted on March 1, 2025 by Yves Smith

Most of you by now have heard of the epic row in the Oval Office on Friday, with Trump and Vance becoming increasingly heated over Zelensky refusal to fall in line with Administration plans, from saying he needed security guarantees in order to sign the Ukraine “minerals deal” to disagreeing with the Trump position that negotiating with Putin to end the war was a good idea, to even disputing Trump’s repeated claim that the US had spent more on Ukraine than the EU had (the charts in this Financial Times article support Zelensky’s claims).


For a quick review, Matt Taibbi has a transcript of the key ten minutes of the press conference; you can find the full fifty minute video here.

Some contend that if Zelensky had handled himself better, the simmering conflict between Trump and Zelensky would not have led to this apparent fatal rupture. I beg to differ.

The yelling match reflected irreconcilable position on what each side regarded as core issues. Thought experiment: if Zelensky were to grovel to Trump and say he was now willing to sign the minerals pact, do you think Trump would say no? He’d relish in his power play having gotten Zelensky to acknowledge Trump as the big dog and making a visible concession (admittedly, Trump would ask Zelensky for more, as in a commitment to negotiate with Russia, which Zelensky would find a way to renege on in due course). Even if Trump is saying otherwise now, he holds no fixed stances. But the bigger point is that it is Zelensky that would not proceed with the minerals pact and certainly would not cooperate with negotiations with Russia. So what could happen in an alternate universe is moot.

I also have difficulty with the claim that Trump and Vance intended to force this rupture. They were muscling, yesiree bob, to get Zelensky to execute the minerals pact. Let us not forget what had already transpired: Zelensky had offered Ukraines’s wealth, first to the Biden Administration, later to Trump and in his Victory Plan, in return for security guarantees. Trump then tried to outrageously retrade the offer by insisting that the purported $350 billion the US had spent on Ukraine (the Wall Street Journal, among others, challenges this claim) should be repaid, when that support was never in the form of loans. Should Taiwan worry about similarly getting a payment demand from Trump? And let us not forget that the US put up Ukraine to this fight via helping arm and train its forces during the Minsk and Minsk 2 duplicities and having Boris Johnson act as our emissary (confirmed later by Samantha Power in her book) to scupper the Istanbul peace deal…with US and NATO and NATO member state leaders promising with one voice that we’d support Ukraine for as long as it took?

In other words, even though Zelensky was never a sympathetic or admirable character (if you were paying attention), Western behavior in this conflict has been reprehensible.

If you review the past week or so of news, it shows clearly that Zelensky was not keen about going to Washington. Alexander Mercouris argues, and it’s certainly plausible, that the desperate and deluded Macron-Starmer tag team had convinced themselves that they could get Trump to guarantee the security of UK and French “reassurance” forces, even though Russia is maintaining no way, no how will they tolerate any NATO (or other) forces in Ukraine ex the approval of the UN Security Council, where Russia has a veto. The scheme was then after getting these commitments from Trump, Zelensky would firm up the arrangement via accepting the minerals pact. Boris Johnson was promoting it as providing de facto security to Ukraine via increased presence; some have speculated that the former Prime Minister also talked to Zelensky, but I have yet to see any evidence.

However, despite his reluctance, Zelensky decided to make the trip, making clear that his agreeing to the minerals pact was not a given. He said he needed to hear what Trump had to say about security guarantees. So Zelensky has not budged from his original position, although he might have been willing to accept verbal assurances (as if those were credible from the US in light of “not one inch further east” and the aforementioned support of Ukraine “for as long as it takes”). But given the parlous state of Ukraine and Zelensky’s rule, any confidence-builder might be adequate.

There are similarly rumors that the disastrous meeting was in part due to bad American advice to Zelensky:

Peachy Keenan
@KeenanPeachy
·
Follow
Blinken, Rice, Nuland, and Vindman conference call with Zelenskyy on the flight to DC advising him to "stand strong" and "be tough" and "don't let Trump bully you" seems to have backfired 😂😂😂
1:49 PM · Feb 28, 2025


Regardless, if you look at the transcript, Trump and Vance resorted to the highly irregular device of having a private discussion and then calling the press in for a press conference. Trump recently used the same trick with the King Abdullah of Jordan. The King had apparently not been told of the press conference plan, where Trump told reporters that the King had agreed to his Gaza ethnic cleansing plan and would be taking in Palestinians. Abdullah did not confront Trump but as soon as he could, issued firm denials of any such consent.

Trump in his opening remarks, in which Trump talks up both the minerals deal and his talks with Putin, tells Zelensky that “It’s something that you want and that he wants” and that Zelensky will be joining him and others in a lunch meeting and then will sign the minerals pact. So consistent with widespread expectations before the meeting, Trump was prepared to have Zelensky sign on.

Zelensky immediately focused on the outtrade:

ZELENSKY: Thank you so much, Mr. President. Thank you for invitation. And really I hope that this document, first document will be first step to real security guarantees for Ukraine, our people, our children. I really count on it. And of course we count that America will not stop support. Really for us, it’s very important to support and to continue it. I want to discuss it with details for them during our conversation and of course the infrastructure or security guarantees.

The wheels come off as Zelensky also immediately pushes back on the idea that Putin can be trusted even as Trump doubles down, and also gets into a spat over Trump’s insistence that the US provided more support than Europe. As Taibbi noted:

“25 times [Putin’s] broken cease fire,” Zelensky said.

“He never broke to me,” snapped Trump, realizing the meeting had moved into deeper water.

From there it was obvious the two sides had fundamentally different understandings. Trump and Vance clearly saw the minerals deal as a necessary precursor to making a security deal with Putin. Zelensky meanwhile began talking as if he intended to keep fighting with or without American support. One can call that brave, but once Trump and Vance realized they’d invited a throng of international media to have Zelensky call them out on their home ice, the mood turned ugly fast.

But remember, even though this getting this ugly in public was clearly not necessary, a crack-up of some sort seemed inevitable. As Simplicius pointed out:

Firstly, let’s again mention the epistemic three-way impasse that has recently surfaced, which we spoke about last time: Ukraine doesn’t want diplomacy without a security guarantee; US wants a ceasefire before major deals with Russia; Russia doesn’t want a ceasefire without its own security guarantees. Despite what went on today, Trump only yesterday appeared to demonstrate his unrealistic understanding concerning the war. He stated in a press conference not only that he would try to get Ukraine as much of its land back as possible, but—and this is the big one—that he thinks Ukraine might be able to get some of its coastline back:

Granted, he may just be egging the press on, and putting on appearances for the sake of playing the peacemaker. Think about it: what coastline could Ukraine possibly get back? The Azov Sea, which would necessitate returning Mariupol or Melitopol, parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye? Or does he actually think Russia could give back Crimea itself?….

And for that matter, we absolutely must include these next essential exhibits into the evidence. Just yesterday, Lavrov again decisively put the final word on the matter of ceasefires when he explained that there will absolutely be no ceasefires “along the current contact line”

I’m inclined to think that the bizarre Trump mention of retaking Ukraine coast was to throw a bone to Zelensky. But that throwaway would have been deeply alarming to the already distrustful Russians.

Confirming Simplicius, progress in the US-Russia talks is slow. The expert had an over 6 hour second meeting in Riyadh. From the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website:

In accordance with the instructions from the foreign policy leadership of both countries, the parties meticulously explored avenues to overcome numerous irritants inherited from previous US administrations. Joint measures were agreed upon to ensure the unfettered mutual financing of Russian and US diplomatic missions’ operations and to establish appropriate conditions for diplomats to fulfil their official duties.

The consultations also addressed issues related to Russian diplomatic properties in the United States, with a particular focus on the restitution of six premises unlawfully seized between 2016 and 2018. The necessity of achieving tangible outcomes to foster conditions conducive to improving bilateral relations, in the interests of both nations, was underscored. In particular, the American side was encouraged to consider the restoration of direct air service between the two countries.

So the only addition to the agenda was restoring flights between Russia and the US. In other words, the bigger issues have yet to even be tabled, let alone a process for considering them to be devised.

What happens now? One popular point of view is that Zelensky needs to quit sooner rather than later. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson has found a new high register in her denunciation of Zelensky in the wake of his White House debacle. For instance:

With his outrageously rude behaviour during his stay in Washington, Zelensky re-affirmed his status of the most dangerous threat to the international community as an irresponsible figure that can stir up a big war. It must be clear to everyone that this kind of attacks coming from a terrorist leader are quite unambiguous.

This cynical individual will stoop to anything in pursuit of his goals and is obsessed with preserving the power he has usurped. This is why he has destroyed the opposition, built a totalitarian state and is ruthlessly sending millions of his fellow citizens to their deaths. Under the increasingly deteriorating political conditions, this figure is unable to show a sense of responsibility and is therefore obsessed with continuing the war and rejects peace, which means death to him.

Unprecedented in the history of international politics and diplomacy, a dressing down given to Zelensky by the US president in the White House is also indicative of the political weakness and extreme moral degradation of the European leaders who continue to support the maniac leader of the Nazi regime who has lost touch with reality.

But I am not sure how feasible it is for Zelensky to make a clean exit even if he wanted to. Remember that he got over 70% of the vote in 2019 and ran on a platform of normalizing relations with Russia. But my impression was that before then, the US neocons and friends had gotten Banderites into key positions in government, way in excess of their representation in society or the Rada (1% to 2% as of then). I recall seeing Chrystia Freeland interview George Soros a couple of years before that. Soros bragged that 15% of the people in the Ukraine government (by that he meant the Administration, not the legislature) had either personally gotten Open Society grants or had an immediate family member how had. Now getting an Open Society grant does not necessarily mean being a Banderite, but it does mean being Russia hostile. And recall also that the Banderite in the post-Maidan regime snagged positions in the internal policing-security apparatus, so they could use force. It’s not hard to imagine that the Zelensky reversal was due to threats to his safety. Other politicians had been badly beaten and at least one had been killed.

Even assuming the Ukraine government is coming to recognize that its goose is cooked, the Banderites may well be in Fuhrer-bunker mode. Russia has promised war crimes trials. Russia would likely go to some lengths to hunt down prominent neo-Nazi figures. Zelensky has to assume the walls have ears as far as his Banderite minders are concerned, save perhaps when he can meet foreign officials in private. And the Banderites have an escalatogical bent, so they might prefer to ride on a white horse into the flames rather than go to Canada, get plastic surgery, and hide out with Galicians.

In the meantime, just three hours ago, Zelensky put up a tweetstorm that indicates he is persisting as best he can in his current course:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський
@ZelenskyyUa
·
Follow
We are very grateful to the United States for all the support. I’m thankful to President Trump, Congress for their bipartisan support, and American people. Ukrainians have always appreciated this support, especially during these three years of full-scale invasion.


Zelensky is to meet with Keir Starmer. The Independent reports that the Europeans are trying to use the rift to worm their way in:

Donald Trump “needs to sort out this mess as much as Zelensky”, Sir Malcolm Rifkind has told The Independent, warning that the US president “cannot deliver a deal unless Zelensky agrees”.

Backing Sir Keir Starmer’s approach to the situation so far, Sir Malcolm – who has previously served as both defence secretary and foreign secretary – said European leaders should help to mediate between the Ukrainian and US presidents.


And the even bigger question: how long can Ukraine keep up the fight? There are two levels to this question: will the Trump Administration take quick and punitive action, such as cutting off access to intel, such as satellite data, and comms, most of all Starlink to force a Zelensky resignation or ouster? A wee problem is that two of the top pretenders to the throne, former general Valerii Zaluzhny and Petro Poroshenko, are also strongly anti-Russian and will probably do their best to sandbag a deal.

Or will it assume that no arms shipments and bad press will do the trick and lead to even more desertions and refusals of orders?

In the meantime, Zelensky has many backers, even if they aren’t in a position to do him much good. A few of ample examples:

David Frum
@davidfrum
·
Follow
This isn't about Zelenskyy, a patriot and hero. This is about an American administration penetrated and compromised by America's enemies.



Brian Krassenstein

@krassenstein
·
Follow
This is utterly repulsive!

Trump and Vance just tried to humiliate Zelensky live on American TV, smugly demanding gratitude while openly mocking him like playground bullies counting favors. My respect for Zelensky—and my embarrassment as an American—just surged off the charts.… Show more


Another view: https://twitter.com/i/status/1895723319263146357

If this is bona fide, it says that some in Ukraine do not want to give up despite the high cost.

So this is not over until the fat lady signs. And despite all the high drama, that has yet to happen.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/03 ... imper.html

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Danish gunners
March 1, 11:04

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On the role of geosynth. How Danish propagandists helped the Russian Armed Forces destroy the headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Sumy Oblast.

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Fighting in Sumy Oblast: Following a tip-off from Danish journalists, the Ukrainian Armed Forces headquarters was destroyed in Yunakovka

A group of journalists from the Danish publication DR.dk, namely correspondent Matilde Kimer (already banned from entering Russia) and photographer Lau Svensson, accompanied by their Ukrainian assistant ("fixer") Alla Didur, illegally crossed the Russian-Ukrainian border from February 20 to 25, 2025 to prepare their report ( https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/udland/ukrain ... -reportage#!/ ) about the fighting in the Sudzhan border area.

We ask law enforcement agencies to initiate a criminal case.

The story could have ended there, if not for one important detail: the video captured the entrance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces headquarters in the village of Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). Our comrades from the 155th Joint Marine Brigade were able to determine the location of the Ukrainian Army headquarters (Fig. 3 and Fig. 4).

Naturally, the results of the open source analysis were passed on to competent specialists. After some time, an Iskander OTRK struck the headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (Fig. 5).

In turn, the first obituaries of the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers destroyed in the village of Yunakovka have already appeared in social networks.

We ask Russian law enforcement agencies to take into account the assistance of Danish journalists to our servicemen in achieving the goals of the Special Military Operation.

P.S. According to the information we have, additional reconnaissance was conducted before the strike, which confirmed the results of the open source analysis and made it possible to directly reveal the location of the Ukrainian Armed Forces headquarters in a building hidden from prying eyes.

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photo_2025-02-28_19-11-12.jpg

https://t.me/warriorofnorth - zinc

Again, to the question of the characters posting photos from our side in the style of "What's wrong ...". The enemy also works with our photos and videos. And what the idiots posting photos and videos won't notice, an open source intelligence analyst will.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9698220.html

RUSI's Recommendations for Conducting War Against Russia
March 2, 11:04

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RUSI's Recommendations for Conducting War Against Russia

In mid-February, the British military-analytical center RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) published ( https://static.rusi.org/tactical-develo ... y-2205.pdf ) a report "Tactical Innovations in the Third Year of the SVO". Its authors are Jack Watling, a consultant to the UK Ministry of Defense, and Nicholas Reynolds, a former employee of the American PMC Constellis.

Part I. What the key institution of the British military intelligence community noted:

The Russian Armed Forces Command is using the tactics of an "offensive trihedron"

The first "edge" is that motorized rifle units are also pushing back the Ukrainian ground forces (GF) on the line of combat contact (LCC), as in 2022-2023

The second is the use of attack FPV drones (the scale of the use of FPV drones controlled by fiber optic cable and the saturation of the battlefield with aerial reconnaissance UAVs have increased, which has complicated the replenishment of supplies at the front line, the evacuation of the wounded, as well as the camouflage and protection of military equipment), including remote mining, loitering munitions (the Lancet produced by the Izhevsk company ZALA, part of the Kalashnikov Group of the Rostec state corporation, was noted) and artillery (fire with high-explosive shells and remote mining) impede the maneuvering of infantry units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front line

Third – the increased use of aerial bombs with the UMPK (universal planning and correction module) by the Russian Aerospace Forces. If the second "facet" forces the Ukrainian infantry to hide in defensive structures, the third one squeezes the ground units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the fortifications, which creates a tactical dilemma. The UMPK forced the Ukrainian proxies to disperse and drove them into underground shelters. Kiev has no effective countermeasures against the UMPK. According to RUSI, 40 thousand UMPK sets were manufactured in 2024, and this figure could reach 70 thousand in 2025.

the exhaustion of ammunition for Ukrainian air defense systems will allow the VKS operational-tactical aviation to penetrate deep into enemy territory and inflict even greater damage.

Initially, the tactics of the Korean People's Army (KPA) differed from the Russian one. The Koreans attacked an area defended by the enemy with the forces of a company or battalion and most often took the positions of the Ukrainian troops, accustomed to the Russian Armed Forces. RUSI notes that Korean servicemen are distinguished by good physical fitness, fighting spirit and determination, as well as cohesion within units. In order to save forces, the KPA began to use Russian tactics:

Russian sappers "sow" minefields systematically, while Ukrainian proxies "partly" due to "supply constraints" mine the main access routes or areas of terrain through which attacks by the Russian Armed Forces are expected.

From 60 to 80% of Ukrainian FPV drones do not reach their target. If the target was a combat vehicle, and the drone hits it, in most cases the armored vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces remain in service.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are experiencing a serious shortage of artillery and ammunition for it. Artillery brigades receive shells on a priority basis, and only then do they go to mechanized brigades, etc.

The transition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to a "corps structure" ( https://t.me/thehegemonist/3881 ) can partly solve the problem of adapting troops to the terrain, since the corps command is supposed to be responsible for a specific LBS sector, with which it is already well acquainted.

The greatest risk for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the short term is a drop in morale among veterans of the largest brigades. It is already low. Reasons: fatigue, servicemen feel deprived, lack of rotation, helplessness against the UMPK, low salaries, no compensation for the families of missing persons, military service forces you to sacrifice not only your life, but also your family's financial situation.

Part II. RUSI recommendations for military sponsors of Ukraine and NATO

On support for Ukraine:

sponsors of Ukrainian proxies should increase military pay and ensure its funding

change the procedure for recognizing a serviceman as killed, which will reduce the number of missing

Kiev should stop forming new units and prioritize bringing existing units - with a priority on experimental formations - to combat-ready strength

training of Ukrainian proxies should take place in Ukraine

make the fight against aerial bombs with UMPK a priority. To do this, use long-range weapons, strike fuel depots, ammunition depots and air bases of the Aerospace Forces, Ukraine's "foreign partners" should "consider the possibility of reducing the technical suitability of Russian attack aircraft by further weakening the Russian aviation sector" in order to reduce the number of Aerospace Forces sorties. This will take some time, during which it is necessary to improve the means of detecting and responding to the dropping of aerial bombs from the UMPK, as well as to study the options for their interception

; eliminate "serious shortcomings" in the equipment and armament of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: increase the production of explosives and shells (primarily 155 mm), ensure the supply of replacement barrels and other spare parts for guns, and increase the supply of the artillery systems themselves. They and UAVs complement each other and establishing their production "is of decisive importance for European defense";

give priority to the supply of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers for Ukrainian proxies;

Kiev's "foreign partners" should plan to build new defensive lines behind Ukrainian fortified areas in the DPR, after they are captured by the Russian Armed Forces (meaning the Dnepropetrovsk and, probably, Kharkiv regions). Such fortifications should be built proactively, and they should be adapted to protect against aerial bombs from the UMPK.

For NATO:

further military support for Kiev should be the top priority for the European members of the alliance;

increase stockpiles and production of air-to-air munitions and long-range interceptor missiles that will be used against the Russian Aerospace Forces in a possible conflict

; increase the range and maneuverability of long-range missiles: invest in the production of jet, rocket engines, guidance and navigation units in Europe for supplies to Ukraine, which will create the industrial potential of a “European” NATO that will be needed to produce munitions designed to strike Russian supply lines and infrastructure in the event of a war with Russia;

include counter-UAV and anti-drone systems in NATO doctrine;

equip the mechanized units of the Alliance Armed Forces with infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers

; strengthen the firepower of NATO tactical units. Expand the use of fiber-optic-guided attack drones (but not at the expense of reducing artillery), abandon commitments to non-use and ban the production of cluster munitions, resume the practice of using anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, replenish stocks of special ammunition, such as 155-mm guided cluster artillery shells BONUS, which are produced by the French division of the European concern KNDS and the British company BAE Systems, ensure uninterrupted production of artillery shells,

adapt the military medical doctrine of the NATO Armed Forces to the scale of losses in high-intensity combat. Shortcomings in this area will seriously undermine the morale of the alliance's troops in a future war with the Russian Federation

https://t.me/thehegemonist/3897 - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9699643.html

Google Translator

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CIA Has Played Instrumental Role in Development of Ukrainian Drone Industry
By Jeremy Kuzmarov - February 28, 2025 1

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Ukrainian soldier launches drone from his hand on November 11, 2022, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. [Source: taskandpurpose.com]

Ukrainian drones have carried out terrorist strikes extending into Russia designed to cripple its oil and gas industry and been deployed to attack Russian journalists

On one of its last days in office, the Biden administration declassified an account of its once-secret support for Ukraine’s drone industry.

U.S. officials said they had made big investments—sending $1.5 billion last September alone—that helped Ukraine start and expand its production of drones as it battled Russia’s larger and better-equipped army.

The U.S. effort included money to support drone makers and to purchase parts. The U.S. also sent intelligence officials to Ukraine to help build the drone program.

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William Burns [Source: bakerinstitute.org]

In an interview in mid-January, CIA Director William Burns referred indirectly to his agency’s support for the drone program in Ukraine, stating that “I think our intelligence support has helped the Ukrainians to defend themselves. Not just in the sharing of intelligence, but support for some of the systems that have been so effective.”

The systems to which Burns was referring include “Sea Baby” drones, operated by the SBU (Ukrainian intelligence service), that can deliver nearly a ton of explosives more than 1,000 kilometers, and targeted Russian ships and port installations in the Black Sea region in concert with missiles reportedly destroying one-third of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

Additionally, Ukraine has become very advanced in new fiber-optic drones that can be converted into unjammable flying bombs, evade electronic shields and deliver precision strikes.[1]

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A Ukrainian serviceman preparing a fiber-optic drone in the Kyiv region in January. The CIA has helped finance Ukraine’s drone industry. [Source: yahoo.com]

The Kyiv Post discussed the extensive use of surveillance drones to monitor and track targets, including those being fingered for assassination by elite CIA-trained SBU commando units that are carrying out a Phoenix-style program to kidnap and kill Ukrainian dissidents.

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Western leaders visit an exhibition of the latest drones in Kyiv, Ukraine. See Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the photo. [Source: abcnews.go.com]

Some of the targets are killed by U.S. RQ-4 Global Hawk drones made by Northrop Grumman, which combine surveillance capabilities to then deliver precision strikes using guided missiles or aerial bombs against personnel or physical targets.

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With its large coverage area, the RQ-4 Global Hawk has become a tool for recording data and sending it to warfighters on the ground. [Source: af.mil]

Business Insider reported that the drone industry was one component of Ukraine’s booming defense industry, with the country now also producing homemade artillery, missiles and other weapons to meet-front line demands.

This while civilian manufacturing has floundered under Volodymyr Zelensky’s rule and a lot of Ukraine’s economy has been bought over by foreign interests, including Wall Street banks that have engaged in a large-scale corporate land grab.

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[Source: labourheartlands.com]

Environmental Terrorism
After the Biden administration’s disclosure about its support for Ukraine’s drone industry, the Associated Press reported on a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil refinery in the Volgograd region that processed 6% of Russia’s oil. Falling drone debris during the attack resulted in the outbreak of local fires that caused injuries to local residents.

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Image of drone attack on oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd region. [Source: newsweek.com]

The same attack targeted a major natural gas processing plant in Russia’s Astrakhan region.

ZeroHedge reported that the attacks on the Volgograd refinery, owned by Lukoil, was the third oil refinery hit by Ukrainian drones within a little over a week.

In the city of Chornomorsk in southern Odessa, drone attacks partially disrupted electricity supplies and damaged a hospital, administrative building, grain warehouse, a house and several trucks, according to a report in Al Jazeera. Another Ukrainian drone strike in the Belgorod border region killed three civilians walking on the street, according to the region’s governor.

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Building in Moscow damaged by a Ukrainian drone strike. [Source: cnn.com]

ZeroHedge noted that “the constant mass drone attacks have done nothing to alter Russia’s advances in Ukraine’s east, but Kyiv hopes to put a dent in Russia’s war machine by setting back its crucial oil and energy-based revenue.”

These latter comments point to the dubious military utility of the Ukrainian drone program and its contribution to military operations designed to cripple Russia’s economy that will cause hardship for the local population—not to mention significant environmental damage.

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Fire resulting from Ukrainian drone strikes in Kazan in Russia in early January. [Source: reuters.com]

On February 17, another drone strike damaged the Caspian Piping Consortium’s pumping station in Russia’s Krasnodar region.

The facility ironically was partially owned by Chevron, Exxon-Mobil and Shell and operated a pipeline that transferred oil from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field to among other places, Israel, threatening the energy security of the U.S.’s Middle East proxy.[2]

Targeting Russian Journalists

Eva Bartlett reported on another horrific way in which Ukraine’s drone industry has been deployed: attacking Russian journalists.

On June 16, 2024, a Ukrainian drone strike killed journalist Nikita Tsitsagi, 29, as he prepared to do a report from the St. Nicholas Monastery near Ugledar—a monastery, heavily-targeted by Ukrainian shelling over the years.

Just three days earlier, Bartlett reported that Ukrainian forces targeted Russian NTV journalists filming in the extremely hard hit village of Golmovsky, east of the northern Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) city of Gorlovka.

The Ukrainian drone strike killed cameraman Valery Kozhin and seriously injured Alexey Ivliyev, a war correspondent.

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Nikita Tsitsagi [Source: nexusnewsfeed.com]

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Valery Kozhin [Source: themoscowtimes.com]

Bartlett noted that the targeting of journalists by Ukrainian killer drones is a violation of the Geneva Convention.

At least 30 Russian journalists have been targeted and killed, though no international investigation has been ordered.

(More, but there's some crazy stuff in there which I suspect was AI generated 'hallucinations', either that or history from an alternative universe..)

https://covertactionmagazine.com/2025/0 ... -industry/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Mar 04, 2025 12:47 pm

Starmer's moment
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 04/03/2025

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“Macron, Starmer propose a one-month truce,” France Presse quoted the French president as saying yesterday in Le Figaro . This proposal , which was quickly picked up by all the media, came out just a few hours after the end of the “Securing Europe” summit, a summit improvised with the speed caused by the need to carry out damage control after Zelensky’s catastrophic meeting at the White House and in which a select group of European countries and another as Canada participated. After the meeting, there was the usual media parade with statements from the different people who had participated, who agreed on the main slogans: increase military spending, rearm Europe and Ukraine and use peace by force to achieve a lasting peace .

The staging, in addition to the meeting with the King of England, served to show unconditional support for Zelensky and to erase from memory the bad taste in the mouth and the fear that Ukraine could be abandoned that was left by Friday's episode. The summit and the subsequent statements left a triple conclusion. Firstly, Starmer, who has been proclaimed by Politico the "unexpected leader of the free world", is trying to get ahead of the movements of the European Union, which had called an urgent summit for March 6, to position itself as the European leader of reference, a position that it only seems willing to share with Emmanuel Macron, and to replace the United States as the country that leads the Ukrainian war effort.

Secondly, judging by the words of the various leaders, there is an awareness that Zelensky needs to work to repair the relationship with Donald Trump and to restore dialogue with the United States. This certainty is not based on common sense or a deep analysis of the situation, but on the most basic reality: several prominent members of the US administration’s foreign policy team, including the National Security Adviser, had publicly demanded an apology that, for the moment, Zelensky has refused to offer. In his strange and incoherent interview with Fox News , the Ukrainian president insisted that he was not sure he had done anything wrong. Since then, it has been all words of thanks to the United States and willingness to sign the mineral extraction agreement that was left unsigned in the wake of the meeting disaster, an attempt to ask for forgiveness without uttering the words “I’m sorry” that has had no effect. Yesterday, Fox News reported that the White House is demanding an official apology from Volodymyr Zelensky for what they believe was an insult to the president, the vice president and the country in general.

Finally, the summit made it clear that the European countries, which have pledged billions of dollars in arms to kyiv these days and can continue to make impossible promises in front of the press, are aware that their strategic autonomy is not limited, but non-existent. This is why Zelensky needed to apologize to the person who publicly humiliated him - it is possible that the ambush was not planned by Donald Trump, but it is clear that JD Vance wanted to confront Zelensky - and he did so in front of the media. Faced with Vance's suggestion to continue in private, Trump considered it important that the American people listen to the conversation. "That is why I have let it continue for so long," he explained to justify the public ridicule to which he had subjected his ally.

As the British media pointed out throughout the day, France and the United Kingdom have not proposed and are not proposing a ceasefire to Russia. In fact, the AFP official misinterprets the words spoken to the French press by Emmanuel Macron, who, although he did mention a ceasefire, did not do so as a proposal for the current moment. According to the French president, the idea would be to declare a truce that should last four weeks, after which the peace mission, or deterrence, would be introduced, as provided for in the Anglo-French plan that both he and Keir Starmer presented to Donald Trump last week during their respective visits to Washington. Starmer announced that Ukraine will have - on credit - the financing to acquire thousands of missiles for its air defence, material that, in addition, will be produced in Belfast. The British prime minister also announced that the Anglo-French proposal, which has already supplanted the European Union as the axis of the initiative to maintain the war until Ukraine considers that it has obtained a position of strength, is open to other countries. “Not everyone will be able to contribute,” Starmer admitted, but some have already expressed interest. To his chagrin, countries such as Poland, Italy and Spain have refused to send soldiers to Ukraine, and the position of the future chancellor Merz is still awaited. The mission, this coalition of the willing , is hardly going to be very dissuasive if it is based on these two armies with no military experience in high-intensity warfare in recent decades and soldiers from the Baltic countries.

Starmer and Macron's aim is a limited contingent, 30,000 troops to be placed in the rear, protected by the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops who would have to remain on the front line. But even so, with a stratospheric increase in European military spending and assuming that it will be these countries that foot the bill for the mission and for supplying this European Israel, Starmer is aware that "to be successful, this effort must have strong support from the United States." The Anglo-French plan that the media have understood as now proposing a truce depends directly on Washington, which, for the moment, seems to be reviewing its Ukrainian policy. Yesterday, Volodymyr Zelensky committed, in the eyes of the President of the United States, a new sin by stating that "peace is still very, very far away," something that has been understood as a lack of will to advance along the path of diplomacy. Faced with the recommendation to repair the relationship, Zelensky has managed, with this apparently innocuous comment that only observes reality, to further irritate Donald Trump. The American leader wrote on his personal social network that these words are “the worst statement that Zelensky could have made and America is not going to put up with this much longer. It is what I had said, this guy does not want there to be peace as long as he has the support of America and Europe, in the meeting they had with Zelensky, he openly said that they cannot do the job without the United States. It is probably not a great statement to make in terms of a show of force against Russia. What are they thinking?” Trump’s message comes on the same day that media such as The New York Times point out that the White House is rethinking its entire Ukrainian policy and considering options among which the most extreme would be to interrupt all the supply of military assistance to Kiev promised by the Biden administration. For the moment, the supply has been temporarily interrupted, although it is specified that it is not a “definitive interruption”. This may just be a tool of pressure to force Zelensky to take the desired steps.

Regardless of his accusations or the fact that any word from Zelensky that is not an apology even more humiliating than the treatment he received at the White House will be presented as an insult, Trump has understood the main thing: no European peace plan can work without the participation of the United States. It is the admission that Washington is the one who has the decision-making power. This is also the case with Macron's idea of ​​a truce, from which even the United Kingdom distanced itself yesterday. The objective of the French president would be to present Russia with a fait accompli, an order for a ceasefire without prior negotiation, the type of diplomacy that Ukraine has aspired to since 2014. With this, Macron intends to test Vladimir Putin's will - not Russia's, but its president's - to maintain the ceasefire, which would be air, sea and energy, but not land-based. That is, Ukraine could continue to counterattack around Pokrovsk, but Russia could not fire missiles like the one that last Saturday caused apparently high casualties at a troop concentration in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast . After four weeks of ceasefire, European troops would be deployed, a contingent that does not yet exist and that would have to be provided with American weapons and backstop , a security mechanism that Trump has not yet agreed to provide. Given the time that this process requires, it is clear that neither France nor the United Kingdom are currently proposing a ceasefire, since they would not be prepared to deploy this mission with which they say they will protect Ukraine from Russia. Perhaps Zelensky's assessment that peace is still far away is closer to reality. All this depending on whether the "very big" thing that Donald Trump announced yesterday that will happen tonight has anything to do with Ukraine.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/04/el-mo ... e-starmer/

Google Translator

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Were the Minsk Agreements a Peace Attempt or a Prelude to War?
Posted by Internationalist 360° on March 3, 2025
Lorenzo Maria Pacini

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Putin, Hollande, Merkel and Poroshenko in Minsk. [The Kremlin]

Until the United States learns to negotiate honestly and transparently, any attempt at reconciliation will be based on specious ideas and hypocrisy.

Ten years on from the Minsk Agreements 1 and 2, it’s time for an objective reflection on what was one of the tensest and most disregarded moments in the history of contemporary diplomacy.

Ten years ago

The fighting between Kiev and Donbass was supposed to have been resolved with the Minsk Protocol, signed in September 2014, but the ceasefire quickly failed. After heavy losses and the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Debaltseve, Germany and France intervened to promote a new peace initiative. Thus, in February 2015, the Minsk-2 Agreement was signed by Kiev, Donbass, Germany, France and Russia. This treaty focused exclusively on resolving the internal conflict between Kiev and Donbass, without explicitly mentioning Russia as a party to the conflict. However, to address the root causes of the crisis, a further agreement between NATO and Russia would have been necessary to manage the geopolitical structure of Europe.

Minsk-2 provided for the withdrawal of heavy weapons and a diplomatic commitment from Kiev in the Donbass, with the approval of constitutional reforms to guarantee the autonomy of the region. In particular, the Ukrainian Parliament would have had to approve a resolution to define the territories subject to special status, in accordance with the 2014 Minsk Memorandum. The autonomy of Donbass aimed to safeguard local linguistic and cultural rights, potentially preventing Ukraine from joining NATO in the future. However, Kiev never entered into a dialogue with Donbass nor approved the necessary law, thus blocking the implementation of the agreement.

Although the United States had signed the Minsk-2 Agreement and the United Nations had ratified it as a resolution, Washington did not exert any pressure on Kiev to respect it. The official U.S. position was that Minsk-2 represented conditions imposed by Russia by force, and therefore its implementation would have meant giving in to the demands of an aggressor. At the same time, the United States began to militarily strengthen Ukraine, arming and training its army to shift the balance of power. In addition, several American officials publicly opposed Minsk-2, considering it an unacceptable surrender to Moscow.

From 2015 to 2022, Western powers continued to proclaim Minsk-2 as the only path to peace, but in fact they undermined its application. Initially it seemed that only the United States and the United Kingdom were opposed to the treaty, while Germany and France appeared too weak to enforce it. However, in the following years, Berlin and Paris also contributed to redefining and renegotiating the terms of the agreement. The European Parliament even attributed “special responsibility” to Russia in its implementation, despite the fact that Moscow was not part of the conflict according to the text of the agreement.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both Angela Merkel and François Hollande revealed that Minsk-2 was not really intended to establish a lasting peace, but rather to buy time for Ukraine to strengthen itself militarily. Merkel stated that the agreement worked because Kiev became stronger, while Hollande confirmed that the war with Russia could only be resolved on the battlefield. Similar statements were also made by Ukrainian President Zelensky, who admitted that he never intended to implement Minsk-2, preferring to postpone its implementation until a more favorable context was reached. Former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko also stated that the objective was to gain time to strengthen the Ukrainian army.

The failure of the world order to guarantee the application of the Minsk Agreement has further eroded confidence in diplomatic instruments. German General Harald Kujat emphasized that the West, by sabotaging Minsk-2, violated international law and contributed to the escalation of the conflict. Jack Matlock, former U.S. ambassador to the USSR, stated that the war could have been avoided if Kiev had respected Minsk-2, recognizing the Donbass as an autonomous region and renouncing NATO. However, NATO has never recognized any responsibility for the outbreak of the war.

U.S. influence in Ukraine

After the Orange Revolution in 2004 and, above all, after Maidan in 2014, the United States has progressively expanded its influence on Ukrainian governance. Numerous American citizens have obtained important roles in the Ukrainian government, such as Natalie Jaresko (Minister of Finance), Aivaras Abromavičius (Minister of Economic Development) and David Sakvarelidze (Deputy Attorney General). Mikheil Saakashvili, former president of Georgia, was appointed governor of Odessa. This pattern of U.S. penetration had already been observed in the Baltic States in the 1990s and 2000s.

Ukrainian Attorney General Viktor Shokin denounced American influence in political appointments and claimed that Washington considered Ukraine its own fiefdom. Shokin was removed from office after launching an investigation into the energy company Burisma, on whose board of directors sat Hunter Biden, son of then-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. The latter exerted pressure for Shokin’s removal, threatening to block one billion dollars in aid. Subsequent documents and testimonies revealed Joe Biden’s direct involvement in his son’s activities in Ukraine.

After 2022, American influence over Kiev increased even further. The CIA helped reorganize the Ukrainian secret services, in particular the GUR, transforming it into an operational unit oriented against Russia. This service subsequently conducted operations inside Russia, including attacks targeting pro-Russian personalities.

Kiev and the opposition

After 2014, Kiev systematically purged any pro-Russian political and cultural opposition, consolidating a radical nationalist identity. The main pro-Russian parties, such as the Party of Regions and the Communist Party, were dissolved. As support for Zelensky began to decline, repression intensified.

Independent media outlets were also shut down or placed under state control. In 2021, Zelensky banned three opposition television channels, and in 2023 censorship was further strengthened. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church, historically linked to Moscow, has been the target of repressive measures, with priests being arrested and church property confiscated.

After the 2014 coup, NATO advisors supported Ukraine in evaluating its own security and defense sector, leading to the approval of the Comprehensive Assistance Package for the country in 2016. The objective of this program was to “strengthen and consolidate NATO support for Ukraine”, as well as “reform its Armed Forces in line with Atlantic standards to ensure their interoperability by 2020”. A 2017 report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency showed that the Kremlin believed that Washington was laying the groundwork for regime change in Russia, a perception amplified by events in Ukraine.

Ukraine therefore began to build a NATO-trained army, consisting of 700,000 active soldiers and one million reservists. Of all the members of the Atlantic Alliance, only the United States and Turkey had larger armed forces, making Ukraine a strategically important frontline state. The idea of using Ukraine as a proxy force against Russia had been advocated as early as 1993 by George Soros, who envisioned a new world order with NATO as the dominant institution. According to Soros, Western societies would have difficulty accepting high casualties among their own soldiers, which is why it would be more cost-effective to use Eastern European troops: “combining Eastern European manpower with NATO’s technical capabilities would strengthen the Alliance’s military potential, reducing the risk of losses for member countries and thus removing a brake on their willingness to intervene”.

Washington saw Ukraine as a key tool in countering Russia as a strategic rival. In 2019, the U.S. Army’s Office of the Quadrennial Defense Review funded a 325-page report by the RAND Corporation entitled “Extending Russia: Competing on Favorable Ground,” which explored strategies for pushing Moscow to overextend itself militarily or economically and lose influence domestically and internationally.

The RAND report identified Ukraine as an area where Russia was “bleeding”, offering strategic opportunities: “providing more military equipment and support to the Ukrainians could push Russia to intensify its involvement in the conflict, increasing the costs it has to bear”. However, the risk of provoking a Russian reaction was also recognized: “although this may increase costs for Moscow, it could at the same time represent a problem for the United States and Ukraine”. The prospect of NATO expansion was also considered useful for keeping tensions high between Russia and Ukraine: “although Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance remains unlikely in the short term, continuing to promote it could strengthen Kiev’s resolve and induce Moscow to intensify its efforts to prevent it”.

Some analysts compared the strategy to the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan: “an increase in military support to Ukraine would raise costs for Russia, leading it to provide more assistance to the separatists, strengthen its military presence and face higher expenses”. The strategy, however, had to be “carefully calibrated” to wear Russia down without provoking a full-scale war: “Increased lethal support for Ukraine would exploit Russia’s main vulnerability, but it had to be managed in a way that increased costs for Moscow without triggering a wider conflict in which Russia would have geographical advantages.”

In 2017, U.S. Senators John McCain and Lindsay Graham visited Ukrainian troops in the Donbass to encourage them to intensify the conflict against Russia. McCain said: “I am sure you will win, and we will do everything we can to provide you with what you need.” Graham reiterated: “Your fight is our fight. 2017 will be the year of the offensive.

In 2019, Oleksii Arestovich, advisor to President Zelensky, predicted a Russian invasion within three years. In his opinion, Ukraine’s accession to NATO was necessary to avoid absorption by Russia, but would lead to a large-scale conflict. Arestovich believed that “the threat of NATO membership would have pushed Russia to launch a large-scale military operation to avoid this scenario”. He estimated the probability of a Russian invasion at “99.9%” between 2020 and 2022 and saw war as an opportunity: “victory would be guaranteed because it would be a conflict by NATO proxy”.

Meanwhile, NATO was also strengthening its military presence in the Baltic States. In 2020, the United States deployed multiple-launch rocket systems in Estonia, 70 miles from the Russian border, and in 2021 conducted exercises to simulate attacks on Russian air defense systems. In Moscow, these operations were seen as provocations, similar to those that Washington would not tolerate within its borders.

In 2021, Ukraine accelerated the process of integration into NATO standards, while the United States worked on modernizing Ukrainian ports to accommodate American warships. That same year, Ukraine and NATO announced the construction of two new naval bases on the Black Sea, financed by the United Kingdom.

Large-scale military exercises have multiplied. Defender Europe 2021 involved 28,000 soldiers from 27 countries, while the Sea Breeze 2021 exercise in the Black Sea saw the participation of 24 nations. The incident between the British warship HMS Defender and Russia reinforced Moscow’s perception that NATO was using Ukraine as a strategic outpost.

In June 2021, Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, stated that the American strategy towards Russia had to be based on confrontation: “any accommodation would be a victory for Putin. Success is confrontation.” In August 2021, the United States and Ukraine signed the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Defense Framework, consolidating Kiev’s role as a de facto member of NATO.

In January 2022, Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official, published an article entitled “The U.S. must prepare for war with Russia over Ukraine”, arguing that Washington should demand Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine and Georgia and, if necessary, be prepared for a direct military confrontation.

For Moscow, these developments signaled the inevitability of a confrontation.

What remains

The failure of the Minsk Accords represents one of the most significant diplomatic debacles in the management of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, highlighting the inability of multilateral diplomacy to prevent a full-scale military escalation. Or, rather, they represent the objective impossibility of dealing with the West or with anyone with a Western dependency.

The absence of a binding enforcement mechanism and differences in interpretation between the parties have irreversibly undermined their implementation. Ukraine has insisted on a sequential approach, subordinating political concessions to Russia to the prior withdrawal of Moscow-backed paramilitary forces and the restoration of Ukrainian control over its eastern borders. Russia, on the other hand, supported a simultaneous implementation of the provisions, demanding immediate legislative autonomy for the separatist regions before any concessions on security matters.

The structural differences between the signatories, together with the lack of political will on the part of Germany and France to exert coercive pressure, made the Minsk Agreements a diplomatic exercise without substantial effectiveness. Furthermore, the deepening of military cooperation between Ukraine and NATO accentuated the perception of Russian insecurity, contributing to the definitive erosion of the agreement. Minsk II ultimately proved to be a mere instrument of temporary containment rather than a genuine framework for pacification, with the result that the crisis turned into open conflict, confirming the failure of regional security guarantees.

Until the United States learns to negotiate honestly and transparently, any attempt at reconciliation will be based on specious ideas and hypocrisy.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/03/ ... de-to-war/

Ukraine, Diplomacy and War
Posted by Internationalist 360° on March 3, 2025
Craig Murray

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Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer (R) and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) pose for a photo during a bilateral meeting at 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, 01 March 2025. EPA/CHRIS J. RATCLIFFE / POOL

When politicians in power are extremely unpopular, they generally turn to militarism and jingoism for a quick boost. Starmer is now the darling of the UK media for his sabre rattling over Ukraine and is busily churning out tweets of military imagery. In doing so he is attempting to pose as in defiance of Trump, and capitalise on Trump’s unpopularity in the UK, even though just two days earlier he was fawning on Trump in the White House and inviting him on an “unprecedented” second State visit.


As ever, there is a great deal of smoke and mirrors here. The European leaders are going to come up with an alternative “peace plan” to present to Trump. This will not be along the lines of the G7 Declaration which was strongly anti-Russian. The European leaders acknowledge that the Biden era G7 Apulia position is now gone.

Instead the new European plan will essentially give Trump pretty well everything he wants, but give the Europeans a ladder to climb down. Starmer is seeking to be hailed as the great bridger of the Atlantic, who explained Trump to Europe and vice versa.

If Trump were an ordinary politician he would then agree to adopt the “European” plan brought to him by Starmer, with a couple of tiny amendments, and then take the joint position into talks with Putin. But Trump being Trump, he might just tell Starmer to stay out of it.

Both the European and American peace plans will involve Putin keeping control over the large majority of the land his troops hold – because otherwise Putin will not agree, and there will be no point. The European plan will have elements designed to blur the sovereignty issue of the Ukrainian land Russia will retain. This will not run once real negotiations with Russia are underway.

As always, money talks and big business is really pulling the strings. Zelensky did not in the event sign the minerals deal with Trump and is now desperate to do so to try to get American cash flowing his way again.

It is worth noting that Starmer’s delusional “Hundred Year Alliance” agreement with Zelensky contained the UK’s attempt to grab the same minerals Zelensky is now asking again to be allowed to hand over to Trump.

You find this in the UK/Ukraine 100 Year Partnership at “Pillar 5, Para 3, article iv”

(iv) supporting development of a Ukrainian critical minerals strategy and necessary regulatory structures required to support the maximisation of benefits from Ukraine’s natural resources, through the possible establishment of a Joint Working Group;

While we are on the subject, most people sensibly ignored the detail of this crazy “100 year” agreement on the entirely sensible grounds that none of it is ever going to happen. But it does contain some remarkable declarations of malevolent intent, of which my favourite is the desire to open a joint online propaganda unit to interfere in the legacy and social media of third countries.

Which we find outlined in fluent Orwellian at “Pillar 7, Para 4”.

Implement joint media initiatives, contributing to coordinated efforts to promote shared values and vision, addressing the information manipulation and malign interference in third party countries. We commit to partnering on joint initiatives such as communication campaigns to mitigate against those threats. We commit to facilitate strengthening of relationships with civil society organisations to support research and the development of counter-FIMI approaches, recognising the importance of independent media and civil society organisations in building societal resilience.

Which is of course precisely what they are always accusing Russia of doing. Indeed alleged Russian social media interference it is why they interfered to have the anti-war winner of the first round of the Romanian elections disqualified.

What this plan amounts to is another Integrity Initiative, this time as a UK/Ukrainian co-production.

One thing I learnt in over 20 years as a diplomat is that the public are generally fed lies about diplomatic discussions. Most diplomatic talks generally end up with an agreed communique that is designed to make everyone look good and may only have a slight link to actual events.

This is especially true with regard to human rights, where in my substantial experience claims that human rights abuses were being dealt with by “quiet diplomacy” were almost always a lie.

A British minister cannot meet a Saudi or Chinese minister without being asked if they raised human rights. The answer given is always “yes” and it is almost always untrue, or it was raised so briefly, quietly and apologetically that it is virtually untrue.

So there is a sense in which the Trump/Vance encounter in the Oval Office with Zelensky was refreshing, in that what you saw is what you got. It was only in being in public that it was more bruising than many diplomatic encounters. I suspect it has shortened the war, especially if Trump sticks to the decision to end aid.

Shortening the war would be a good thing. If you think a principle is so important that you believe it is fine for millions of people to die for it – none of whom are yourself – I suggest you reconsider your principles. I am not so exercised about who is the mayor of Russian-speaking Lugansk that I am prepared to have a nuclear war over the issue.

What I find particularly alarming is the continuing comparison of Putin to Hitler, and the allegation that if Putin is not “stopped” in Ukraine, then he will conquer the whole of Europe.

This is a quite extraordinary example of false analogy. Putin has never shown any indication of following a universal ideology he wishes to impose by conquest, or of territorial ambition beyond a small number of Russian-speaking ex-Soviet districts contiguous to Russia.

In addition to which, Russia is gradually winning a war of attrition against a much smaller neighbour, which is to be expected. Ukraine has survived this long with massive Western aid. But the idea that the Russian army is capable of conquering the whole of Europe, when it cannot subdue Kiev, is plainly utter nonsense. Even aside from the fact there is absolutely no desire in Moscow to do so.

Trump has pointed at NATO and revealed the Emperor’s New Clothes. NATO was formed to counter a Soviet alliance that did possess a universal ideology it wished to spread, and did have the military strength to threaten (though it should be stated not even the Soviet Union ever had any intention of invading Britain or formulated plans to do so). That threat has now passed.

The attempt to use the farcical Salisbury incident as evidence of a Russian threat to the UK population is, frankly, pathetic.

It is hard sometimes to follow the workings of the propaganda machine. At what stage did the crazy narrative that Russia blew up its own Nord Stream pipeline get abandoned?

Russia destroying the pipeline was unanimously and loudly proclaimed by the entire legacy media and the entire political class of the Western world. Those of us who pointed out this was not true were denounced and ridiculed. Yet now the narrative has quietly been dropped, and the truth is occasionally acknowledged by the media. Though with no admission of the previous lies.

How does this cycle operate? Is it centrally determined, or is it organic? Were the media really stupid enough to believe Russia destroyed Nord Stream, or were they knowingly lying? How have the German people been persuaded to accept the massive damage the increase in energy costs did to industrial employment? These are fascinating fields of study.

European politicians who have made a career of Russophobe rhetoric are suddenly naked in the breeze. They are charging around banging the drum of war, threatening to mobilise armies they do not possess and convinced that preserving their own place in the socio-economic hierarchy is well worth the threat of nuclear oblivion.

Laughter is the best response to their pretention.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/03/ ... y-and-war/

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Starmer's Summit Gives Birth To A Mouse - It's Stillborn.

A mountain was in labour, uttering immense groans,
and on earth there was very great expectation.
But it gave birth to a mouse. This has been written for you,
who, though you threaten great things, accomplish nothing."


Sundays meeting of selected European leaders in London reminded me of the above Aesop fable.

Prime Minister Starmer's summit, called for in haste, has achieved nothing:

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rallied his European counterparts Sunday to shore up their borders and throw their full weight behind Ukraine as he announced outlines of a plan to end Russia’s war.
...
Starmer said he had worked with France and Ukraine on a plan to end the war and that the group of leaders — mostly from Europe — had agreed on four things.
The steps toward peace would:

keep aid flowing to Kyiv and maintain economic pressure on Russia to strengthen Ukraine’s hand;
make sure Ukraine is at the bargaining table and any peace deal must ensure its sovereignty and security; and
continue to arm Ukraine to deter future invasion.
Finally, Starmer said they would develop a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine and guarantee the peace.
“Not every nation will feel able to contribute but that can’t mean that we sit back,” he said. “Instead, those willing will intensify planning now with real urgency. The U.K. is prepared to back this with boots on the ground and planes in the air, together with others.”

It is far from certain whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will accept any such plan, which Starmer said would require strong U.S. backing. He did not specify what that meant, though he told the BBC before the summit that there were “intense discussions” to get a security guarantee from the U.S.

“If there is to be a deal, if there is to be a stopping of the fighting, then that agreement has to be defended, because the worst of all outcomes is that there is a temporary pause and then Putin comes again,” Starmer said.

Starmer said he will later bring a more formal plan to the U.S. and work with Trump.


That mouse the mountain gave birth to is stillborn:

- Trump has made clear that the U.S. will not agree to back any European forces in Ukraine.

- Zelenski, unless under more pressure, will not agree to a ceasefire without U.S. backing.

- Russia does not agree to any temporary ceasefire. It wants a new permanent security architecture for Europe and beyond.

- Russia does not agree to forces from NATO countries in Ukraine. It started the war to prevent that to happen.

- Russia will not agree to a rearming of Ukraine. Its declared aim is to 'de-militarize' the country.

- Russia is winning the war. Neither Starmer nor Europe have the means to prevent it from doing that.

What Starmer and Macron are trying to do now is the very same they had failed to do last week when the both made the pilgrimage to Washington DC:

Macron, Meloni and Starmer were among European leaders who spoke with both Trump and Zelenskiy over the weekend, as they tried to get the two men back to the table. They believe there’s still a narrow path to reviving the minerals deal that the presidents had planned to sign, giving the US leader a vested interest in deterring further Russian aggression against Ukraine.

They still want to win Trump's agreement to prolong the war. I doubt that this second attempt will be more successful than their first try.

One wonders how Starmer and Macron became delusional enough would even try that plot. One reason may be that get advised my 'military experts' like these:

Despite President Volodymyr Zelensky’s efforts, the United States has made it clear that it does not intend to offer Ukraine security guarantees or directly contribute to any forces supporting Ukraine after the imposition of a ceasefire. It therefore falls upon Europe to plan for such a force. This is a serious undertaking. Can European powers field such a force without hollowing out Europe’s ability to defend NATO’s borders, all while the United States potentially withdraws forces from the continent?
While the length of front and the size of Russian ground forces may give the impression that the task is infeasible, in our view it is practicable if European nations are willing to pay the cost. With the right force balance, investment, and political framework Europe could generate a credible commitment.

There is nothing fantastical about a European mission in Ukraine.


Watling and Kofman, the authors of the above, call for the deployment of three(!) European brigades to Ukraine:

Given the significant degradation in Russian force quality over the course of the last three years of fighting, the initial force deployed could be as few as three combat brigades, or their equivalents.

Since the start of the war the Russian forces in Ukraine have more than doubled in size. Russia is now producing more missiles and drones than ever before. Its soldiers have gained valuable experience. How can this be seen as a 'degradation in Russian force quality'?

Ukraine itself has deployed some 100 brigades in the war and Russia about twice that many.

How three inexperienced multinational brigades from western Europe could in any way effect that balance is way beyond me.

Is there any way to direct these people to a more realistic and sane view of the world?

Posted by b on March 3, 2025 at 17:00 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/03/s ... .html#more

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The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hides massive losses after a missile strike on a military training ground
March 2nd, 2025
19:21

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Operational-tactical missile system "Iskander-M". Photo: Yuri Smityuk / TASS

The Ukrainian command hides the fact of the mass death of servicemen as a result of a missile strike on a training ground in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This is reported by Ukrainian resources.

As a result of a missile strike on a military training ground in the Novomoskovsk district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, 32 servicemen were killed, writes, in particular, ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Igor Mosiychuk **.

"(C) On 15.12 01.03.2025, a missile strike (Iskander — 2 cluster munitions) was launched on the territory of the settlement. CHERKASSKOYE, Novomoskovskiy district, Dnipropetrovsk region. Hits on the territory of the location of the 168th reserve battalion. Casualties: 32 dead, 153 ambulances. 2 units of automotive equipment of the 93rd mechanized brigade were damaged," Mosiychuk said ** in his telegram channel.

According to the militant "Aidar"* Stanislav Bunyatov, 50 Ukrainian soldiers were killed.

Military resources supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that "a great tragedy has occurred, about which everyone is silent, "no comment, eternal memory to the guys."

As EADaily reported, the Russian Armed Forces launched a missile attack on the Novomoskovskiy military training ground in the Dnipropetrovsk region, destroyed the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as up to 30 foreign instructors. This was reported by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

"The Iskander-M OTRK struck the Novomoskovskiy military training ground in the Dnipropetrovsk region, where servicemen of the 157th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were trained. As a result of the strike, up to 150 Ukrainian nationalists were killed, including up to 30 foreign instructors," the department's telegram channel says.

https://eadaily.com/en/news/2025/03/02/ ... ing-ground

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US suspends military aid to Ukraine
March 4, 3:56

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The United States is suspending all military aid to Ukraine until Kiev demonstrates a commitment to peace talks. (c) Fox News, citing a source in the White House
. Earlier, similar information was reported by Wall Street Journal sources.
According to the publications, Trump instructed US Defense Secretary Hegseth to "pause." The suspension applies to all supplies, including those included in the packages approved by Biden.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9703703.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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