Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Mar 13, 2025 10:57 pm

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Britain Wants Ukraine’s Minerals Too
March 13, 2025
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“It’s not just Trump.” Mark Curtis reports on the U.K.’s scramble for Ukraine’s natural resources.

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U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy looking up at Ukrainian flags while visiting Kiev on Feb. 5. (Ben Dance / FCDO /CC BY 2.0)

By Mark Curtis
Declassified UK

When U.K. officials signed a 100-year partnership with Ukraine in mid-January, they claimed to be Ukraine’s “preferred partner” in developing the country’s “critical minerals strategy.”

Yet within a month, U.S. President Donald Trump had presented a proposal to Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelensky to access the country’s vast mineral resources as “compensation” for U.S. support to Ukraine in the war against Russia.

Whitehall was none too pleased about Washington muscling in.

When Foreign Secretary David Lammy met Zelensky in Kyiv last month he reportedly raised the issue of minerals, “a sign that [Keir] Starmer’s government is still keen to get access to Ukraine’s riches”, the iPaper reported.

Lammy earlier said, in a speech last year:

“Look around the world. Countries are scrambling to secure critical minerals, just as great powers once raced to control oil.”
The U.K. foreign secretary was correct, but Britain itself is one of those powers, and Ukraine is one of the major countries U.K. officials — as well as the Trump administration — have their eyes on.

It’s no surprise why. Ukraine has around 20,000 mineral deposits covering 116 types of minerals such as beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, zirconium, rare earth metals and nickel.

The country, whose economy has been devastated by Russia’s brutal war, also possesses one of the world’s largest reserves of graphite, the largest titanium reserves in Europe, and a third of the continent’s lithium deposits.

These resources are key for industries such as military production, high tech, aerospace, and green energy.

In recent years, the Ukrainian government has sought to attract foreign investment to develop its critical mineral resources and signed strategic partnerships and held investment fora to showcase its mining opportunities.

The country has also begun auctioning exploration permits for minerals such as lithium, copper, cobalt and nickel, offering lucrative investment opportunities.

Media narratives largely parrot the U.K. government’s interests in Ukraine being about standing up to aggression. But Whitehall has in the past few years stepped up its interest in accessing the world’s critical minerals, not least in Ukraine.

‘Critical Minerals Work’

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Map of minerals of Ukraine, 2022. (Zbigniew Dylewskie / Wikimedia Commons /
CC BY 3.0)

Nusrat Ghani, a trade minister in Rishi Sunak’s government, held at least 10 meetings on the subject of critical minerals in 2023 and the first half of 2024, government transparency data shows.

Among the companies she met were giant U.K. mining corporations Rio Tinto and Anglo American, and arms exporter BAE Systems and military aerospace lobbyists, ADS.

It is not clear if Ukraine was the subject of these discussions but one other prominent firm Ghani met to discuss “mineral supply chains” was Rothschilds, which has extensive interests in Ukraine.

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Rothschild & Co Bank’s London offices in the New Court building. (Adrian Welch /Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 2.5)

Ghani held a discussion with the Paris-headquartered global advisory firm in April 2023 while her successor Alan Mak did so the following year in May. Mak met the firm “to discuss Rothschild’s critical minerals work,” the data show.

The corporation was invited to the 2023 Ukraine Recovery Conference held in London and is a member of the U.K.-Ukraine Finance Partnership. It has also been the main adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance since 2017.

Rothschilds, on whose board sits former U.K. National Security Adviser Lord Mark Sedwill, has no less than $53 billion invested in Ukraine.

‘British-Ukrainian Partnership’

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(GOV.UK)

Writing recently in Unherd, researcher Sang-Haw Lee quotes a senior Labour figure saying the U.K. was involved in extensive negotiations for the whole of last year relating to securing exclusive access to Ukraine’s minerals, but that adequate government support was not forthcoming.

Some other meetings have crept into the public domain. Last April, two prominent U.K. parliamentarians met one of Ukraine’s largest mining investment companies in London to discuss “British-Ukrainian partnership in the field of critical minerals mining.”

BGV Group, which has investments of $100 million in Ukrainian mining projects, held discussions with then energy minister, Lord Martin Callanan, and Bob Seely, then a Conservative MP who sat on Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee.

The company is seeking investors for its graphite and beryllium projects and said in a media release that “Ukraine has all the prerequisites to become one of Britain’s main suppliers of critical minerals crucial for advanced technologies and the green energy transition.”

“As Ukraine’s ultimate European ally, the U.K. could leverage its strong position within NATO to help secure mining sites and transportation routes”, writes Andriy Dovbenko, the founder of U.K.-Ukraine TechExchange.

‘Vast Resources’

The U.K. government’s “Ukraine Business Guide” notes that “Ukraine has vast resources” and “a rich mineral base of iron ore, manganese, coal, and titanium.”

Certainly, enhancing access to critical minerals has been a broad priority across Whitehall over the last three years.

The U.K. produced its first-ever Critical Minerals Strategy in 2022 and updated this with a refresh” the following year. It identifies 18 minerals with “high criticality” for the U.K., including several present in Ukraine, such as graphite, lithium and rare earth elements.

The U.K.’s strategy aims, among other things, to “support U.K. companies to participate overseas” in supply chains for these minerals and “champion London as the world’s capital of responsible finance for critical minerals.”

As part of its critical minerals strategy, the government set up a so-called Task & Finish group, analysing the risks to U.K. industry, and including participants from BAE, Rio Tinto and ADS. The group highlights titanium, rare earth elements, cobalt and gallium as among the minerals with a supply risk to the U.K. military sector.

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Zelenskyy pouring water for Starmer during a NATO Ukraine Council session at the military alliance’s summit in Washington, D.C., in July 2024. Then President Joe Biden and NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg on right. (Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

The U.K. has also launched a Critical Mineral Intelligence Centre and established a Critical Minerals Expert Committee to advise the government.

A report by the Foreign Affairs Committee on critical minerals published in December 2023 concluded that “the U.K. cannot afford to leave itself vulnerable on supply chains that are of such strategic importance.”

A sign of how seriously the government is taking the issues is that it says it will “ensure consideration for critical minerals is embedded” in the free trade agreements it is negotiating with a range of countries.

‘Regulatory Structures’

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Starmer and Zelenskyy in Kiev in January when they signed a 100-year partnership agreement. (Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street/ Flickr/ CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Accessing minerals overseas often depends on loosening government regulations to enable foreign corporations to strike favourable deals.

The 100-year partnership declaration commits the U.K. and Ukraine to “supporting development of a Ukrainian critical minerals strategy and necessary regulatory structures required to support the maximisation of benefits from Ukraine’s natural resources, through the possible establishment of a Joint Working Group.”

The thrust of the partnership is to “support a more enabling environment for private sector participation in the clean energy transition” and to “attract investments of British companies in the development of renewable energy sources.”

More generally, the two sides will “work together to boost and modernise Ukraine’s economy by progressing reforms that aim to attract private finance” and “boost investor confidence.”

As Declassified recently showed, British aid to Ukraine is focused on promoting these pro-private sector reforms and on pressing the government in Kyiv to open up its economy to foreign investors.

Foreign Office documents on its flagship aid project in Ukraine, which supports privatisation, note that the war provides “opportunities” for Ukraine delivering on “some hugely important reforms.”

The U.K. supports a project called SOERA (State-owned enterprises reform activity in Ukraine), which is funded by USAID with the U.K. Foreign Office as a junior partner.

SOERA works to “advance privatization of selected SOEs [state-owned enterprises], and develop a strategic management model for SOEs remaining in state ownership.”

U.K. documents note the programme has already “prepared the groundwork” for privatisation, a key plank of which is to change Ukraine’s legislation.

“SOERA worked hand-in-hand with GoU and proposed 25 pieces of legislation of which 13 were adopted and implemented,” the most recent documents note.

‘Geostrategic Rivalries’

Much U.K. foreign policy and wars can be explained by Whitehall wanting British corporations to get their hands on other countries’ resources.

The 2003 invasion of Iraq was mainly about oil while decades earlier the U.K.’s brutal war in Malaya in the 1950s was substantially about rubber. Britain’s support for apartheid South Africa is significantly explained by the U.K. wanting continued access to South Africa’s massive mineral resources.

But the main concern now is China, which is the biggest producer of 12 out of the 18 minerals assessed by the U.K. as critical.

The Ministry of Defence’s major geopolitical forecast, its “Global Strategic Trends,” released last year, makes 57 mentions of minerals, noting that they “will become of increasing geopolitical importance” and could lead to “new geostrategic rivalries and tensions.”

History suggests that Whitehall’s international strategy on critical minerals, and its scramble for Ukraine’s, will continue to shape U.K. foreign policy and contribute to these future international tensions.

https://consortiumnews.com/2025/03/13/b ... erals-too/

It would appear that the Brits are as delusional in this as with so many other things.

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Riyadh 'Ceasefire'? Analysis and reactions

Why declared 'openness to a temporary ceasefire' is probably a trap. Ukrainian and Russian reactions
Events in Ukraine
Mar 12, 2025

Is the war finally coming to a close? While events are certainly transpiring, so far it looks dubious. Here’s a list of today’s topics:

Zelensky hardliners against any ceasefire seem to believe that Zelensky’s agreement to (openness to) ceasefire in Riyadh is still an epic victory.

Maybe they’re right - Ukrainian political analyst Ruslan Bortnik isn’t optimistic about the new ‘agreement to openness to temporary ceasefire’

Responses from Ukrainian’s Trumpian (Dubinsky) and Euro-Nationalist (Honcharenko) opposition figures

Takes from Russia

A Ukrainian diplomat at the talks gives a strange account of ‘difficult compromises’ made due to exhaustion

Zele Loyalists Vindicated?
It’s been 10 days since Zelensky #resisted Trump’s (Krasnov?) nefarious demand for peace. Since then, Zelensky seemed to be going full steam ahead allying the West against the grand Russo-American fasco-communist condominium. Top Zelensky mouthpieces in Ukraine like parliamentarian Mariana Bezuhla were putting out defiant calls for forever war:

If the Ukrainian people are forced into a ceasefire, it will be our de facto capitulation, opening the way for the enemy to a new, even larger war. (March 1)

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And on the eve of the March 12 Ukraine-US negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Bezuhla stayed firm:

Do not expect anything from the negotiations—we are FORCED to get used to perceiving the U.S. government as our enemy and an ally of Russia.

To ensure that no one on the Ukrainian side agrees to surrender, any signature from Ukraine under the current circumstances is a step toward capitulation.

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As you can see, telegram users weren’t impressed.

Zelensky advisor Serhiy Leshchenko was also adamantly opposed to any ceasefire. Certainly a hardliner, especially given his much-publicized love for cocaine and other snortable substances.

Leshchenko is also well-known for being the USAID-funded journalist who fired the first volley in what would become the Manafort scandal. Rudy Giulani’s least favorite person in Ukraine, maybe on earth. Anyway, plenty of bad blood with Trump. I have no clue why Zelensky is keeping him around at the current conjuncture, but what can you expect from him.

Anyway, here’s Leshchenko’s brave March 10 intervention as described by strana.ua, Ukraine’s top oppositional media source:

Ukraine will not agree to a ceasefire on land, said Serhiy Leshchenko, an advisor to the head of the Presidential Office.

According to him, American aid is not so critical that Ukraine should stop fighting under conditions that are being "imposed" on it.

"Trump asks: Is there a plan for a ceasefire? We answer: Yes, we have a ceasefire plan. We propose stopping fire from the air. This includes drones, missiles, and ballistic weapons. We also propose a ceasefire at sea. We commit not to attack. This, by the way, is paradoxical, because we currently hold the initiative in the Black Sea. We also propose not to attack energy infrastructure. If you want a ceasefire, we are ready. But not on land, where Putin could use the ceasefire for several months to treat his wounded, recruit infantry from North Korea, and restart the war," Leshchenko said during a televised marathon.

He also stated that 70% of Ukrainian military losses are caused by drones, and by this logic, Ukraine's proposal should be "beneficial" for Russia.

It is important to note that the statistics do not refer to long-range drones, the use of which Zelensky is proposing to ban, but rather FPV drones, which are used on the front lines against enemy equipment and personnel. Their use cannot be stopped without a full ceasefire "on land," which Kyiv opposes.

At the same time, Zelensky's proposal would nullify Russia's advantage in long-range strikes, since Moscow has more missiles and drones capable of hitting Ukraine from a distance.

As for naval strikes, Russian forces regularly shell Ukrainian ports and ships docked there, while Ukraine conducts attacks at sea far less frequently.


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Leshchenko, ex-husband of DJ Nastya

But nevertheless, last night’s Ukraine-US negotiations in Riyadh seem to have concluded with Ukrainian ‘defeat’. Zelensky’s representative at the talks (or puppetmaster, depending who you ask) Yermak agreed to Trump’s demand for a 30-day ceasefire last night. What happened?

One has to note Washington’s cutting off of military aid as a suitable incentive. The White House now claims that the flow of intel and arms to Ukraine has started up again. Perhaps my pre-Trump skepticism of the ‘great peacemaker’ wasn’t without merit.

Skeptical views
Jn reality, this ‘ceasefire’ is nothing of the sort. Director of the Ukrainian Institute for Politics Ruslan Bortnik isn’t too optimistic about it. Bortnik is nowadays often cited by Politico, but I’ll also add that he is a Russian-speaker who generally appeared on ‘pro-Russian’ television channels in Ukraine. His thriving in wartime speaks to both his political acumen and the fact that many ‘pro-Russian’ politicians still remain quite powerful (sometimes in their capacity as hostages).

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... -reactions

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Tarik Cyril Amar: Rape and torture: Will the West cover for Kiev’s war crimes?
March 13, 2025 natyliesb
By Tarik Cyril Amar, RT, 2/4/25

Russia’s Investigative Committee has announced the initiation of a criminal investigation into the killing of civilians in a small village in Kursk Region.

The region on the border with Ukraine is, of course, the site of the worse than pyrrhic incursion which Kiev launched into Russian territory last August. Since initially being overrun, the territory under the control of Ukrainian forces has unsurprisingly been shrinking under a Russian counterattack, while Kiev has been wasting its soldiers’ lives on yet another strategically absurd and tactically mulish to-the-last-man stand in classic Zelensky style.

Against this grim backdrop, the village in question, Russkoye Porechnoye, was under temporary Ukrainian occupation before being liberated by Russian forces. Entering the settlement, those forces reported finding evidence of the crimes that are now under investigation.

Specifically, Russian prosecutors charge Ukrainian forces with severely abusing and killing 22 civilians (11 men and 11 women) in Russkoye Porechnoye. They have also identified five individual Ukrainian servicemen as perpetrators: they go by the field pseudonyms of “Kum” (godfather), a platoon commander, “Motyl” (moth), “Provodnik” (conductor), and “Khudozhnik” (artist) and belong to Ukraine’s 92nd assault brigade. A fifth man, Evgenii Fabrisenko, is of special importance as he is the only one – at least until now – who has been apprehended by Russian forces.

His confessions, partly shown on Russian primetime news and on widely watched talk shows, seem to be a key source for information on the other perpetrators. Apart from providing details about the cruel abuses – including rape – and killings in Russkoye Porechnoye, Fabrisenko also claims that the perpetrators received an order from their battalion commander to “cleanse” the settlement. That is an important detail since it implicates the commander in the crimes even if he was not personally present.

At this point, the Russian authorities have launched an investigation, named suspects, and made specific accusations. It is true that, at the same time, Russian media and politicians treat the crimes already as fact: Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, for instance, has underlined that the atrocities of Russkoye Porechnoye must be acknowledged and widely publicized, even if the West and Ukraine pretend to be deaf to this kind of news. Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry, has denounced the crimes as typical of the “terrorist and Neo-Nazi” Kiev regime, which, she stressed, is supported by the West.

But the investigations have not been completed, and trials have not yet taken place. At least until then, conclusive assessments of what exactly happened in Russkoye Porechnoye and who precisely took part in it are out of reach. It should be noted, however, that things can get even worse: Russian prosecutors speak of five identified perpetrators at least. Others might still become targets of investigation. The battalion commander, in any case, seems liable to be charged under the command responsibility principle.

Even without speculating, we do know a few things already: very serious, detailed allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity have been made. Russian prosecutors and media are showing us pieces of evidence and of the confessions of one of the accused. Leading Russian politicians have invested their credibility into supporting these allegations.

Even if some of the rhetoric around the case in the Russian media is, unsurprisingly, intense (it would be everywhere), there is no good reason to simply dismiss all of the above as “fake.” Yet that is what Ukraine and the West have done. Intriguingly, with few exceptions that seem to almost fulfill an “alibi” function, this wholesale dismissal has mostly taken the form of keeping quiet about the case: try googling for “News” about “Russkoye Porechnoye” in Russian and in, for instance, English, and the pattern is clear. That may still change in the future, but it is already a fact that the initial Western and Kiev response has been what the Germans call “totschweigen,” that is, hushing something up until it is – or at least seems – dead.

In that regard, as a minimum, both Peskov and Zakharova have an important point: even if Western and Ukrainian observers and politicians want to contradict Russia’s version of events, their silence is entirely inadequate, in three regards:

First, despite endless Western mainstream media brainwashing there is no a priori reason to simply dismiss the Russian accusations because they also carry an inevitable political charge: In general, facts can do so and still be facts. In the case of Russia, specifically, its record of telling or not telling the truth is, actually, no worse than that of the West or Ukraine (witness the ludicrous Western and Ukrainian lying about the Nord Stream sabotage or Western denialism about Israeli genocide), to say the very least.

It is true that Amnesty International has criticized prior Russian judicial procedures against Ukrainian POWs as unfair. In 2023, a UN commission of enquiry found that “Russian authorities have used torture in a widespread and systematic way in various types of detention facilities.” Yet even if you believe all of the above, it is reasonable – and not “whataboutism,” that last refuge of the special pleader – to apply the same standards to every state: The Ukrainian army, for instance, has an extensive and well-documented record of horrendous and pervasive illegality, including kidnapping, assassinations, “renditions,” and torture. And yet no one in the Western mainstream media would simply dismiss without further ado allegations that its officials make about others’ crimes.

Thus, if you take allegations out of Kiev, Washington, or, say, London seriously enough to give them at least a hearing, you’ll have to do the same for Moscow. You won’t have to – and should not – believe anyone without evidence, but you cannot quickly decide to disbelieve anyone just because you feel you are “on the other team” either.

Second, there is no reason to consider Ukrainian soldiers immune to committing crimes. The West may have turned a blind eye to plenty of very questionable behavior – to put it mildly – by its proxy’s forces, from shelling civilians in Donbass to mistreating Russian POWs. And the Kiev regime has invested heavily in a deliberate attempt to “sell” its war effort as unrealistically kind and innocent.

Yet we still have some evidence independent of any Russian claims: Early in the war, Western media and Amnesty International, for instance, still dared to report Ukrainian crimes. In addition – and again despite the West’s massive efforts at obfuscating and “normalizing” this fact – Ukrainian troops do include substantial numbers of men with extremely violent, far-right ideologies.

In addition, the Ukrainian public sphere has been subjected to a systematic dehumanization campaign, in which all Russians have been depicted not merely as enemies but as monstrous and inferior (often using slurs, such as “vatnik,” a demeaning term implying backwardness; “rashist,” a contraction of “Russian” and “fascist”; or “Orc,” borrowed from Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings). The systematic adoption of this language by the political elite and the mass media has had real effects. As Al Jazeera reported as early as May 2022, even a humble sales clerk in Kiev knew and shared its message: “They’re orcs because we don’t consider them human.”

Indeed, many Western “friends” of Ukraine had nothing better to do than to excuse, encourage, and even adopt this foul rhetoric. Those who may wish to justify such talk as a virtually inevitable consequence of war will still have to admit that it can have severe consequences beyond words: soldiers – that is men with arms who can end up in positions where they have the upper hand over civilians without arms – taking this dehumanizing language seriously will feel free, even encouraged to commit atrocities.

And, finally, the third reason why we cannot simply dismiss the Russian accusations is that crimes have victims. If the Russian accusations are borne out, then it will be principally unjust to pretend that the crimes against these victims do not exist or do not matter simply because they are “on the other side.” Because that would imply that these victims do not matter. Yes, there is a fundamental ethical issue here.

It bears repeating that, if we think in large numbers – and this has become a war of very large numbers indeed – then it is still likely that the preponderant majority of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are not criminals. They are now at war, and they live and die violently. I know Russian and Ukrainian and I have met many Russians as well as Ukrainians. Call me naïve if you wish, but I will hope until the opposite is proven that, on both sides, most of those fighting are not rapists or murderers. And when this war will be over, everyone will need to remember this, if they want a better future. Yet everyone will also have to be honest about not only the crimes they accuse others of but also those that some on their own side will have committed.

And as far as the West is concerned, those honest enough to face reality will find that no one has remained innocent. The West – its politicians, intellectuals, and media representative – in particular, will have to admit its abysmal, essential contribution to making this war happen and keeping it going. The psychological shock delivered by this predictable, late (as always), and inevitable (in the long run) discovery will produce ongoing denial, but also, hopefully, at least some soul-searching. Because a West that always claims the moral high ground must finally understand itself: it is no better than others, and, given its extremely aggressive conduct since the end of the Cold War – not to adopt a longer, also plausible perspective – it may well be worse.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/03/tar ... ar-crimes/

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They Wanted Kursk Battle.

They've got it. This is for those who get lost in scales and proportions--a reminder. This all has been happening at the small wedge of the Kursk Oblast initially about 400 sq.km (roughly 154 square miles). This is roughly the area half that of the area of NYC. "Brilliant" NATO planners, especially British, who for some reason consider themselves masters in whatever (primarily chicken shit), pumped into this wedge this "thing", which today doesn't exist anymore. Latest from Russian MoD.

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So, NATO losers decided to kill a whole combined arms army (or roughly the whole of British Army by comparison) of Ukrainian and NATO "advisers" cannon fodder and ... they succeeded, Russians took care of it. Here are the numbers. By the time all disjoined (fractured) groups of shell-shocked, panicked and demoralized wandering remnants of VSU will be completely mopped up, the personnel losses may reach 70, 000. But what's more--the thing which Western militaries simply block out, because it really hurts their feelings--these are kill ratios. While Russian forces did sustain losses, the kill ratio in Kursk is not even an average of 1 to 10-12, it is somewhere on the order of 1 to 15-20. It is a slaughter of the elite, most fanatical and the best trained troops NATO could provide (average VSU "elite" combatant is better than any combatant from the NATO armies, the US Army included). They are not there anymore.
They also excelled at executing their own who didn't want to die under Russian fire. The body of evidence of atrocities not only against own, but Russian POWs and civilians is overwhelming. NATO militaries are forever stained as good only at killing defenseless. This is the end of any kind of "high" (from pot?) moral ground the US Army ("the force for good" like providing ISR for Nazi regime in Kiev and manning its long-range fires against civilians) tries to pretend it occupies--it doesn't. Vladimir Putin was clear--treat ALL of the VSU who committed atrocities as terrorists. Guess what, NATO "advisers" will not have the protection of Geneva, plus--being a de Facto barrier troops (that's where NATO excels too) shooting into the backs of retreating hapless VSU is a war crime and atrocity. So, let's wait and see what Mr. Witkoff tells his counterparts in Moscow this week ...

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/03 ... attle.html

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Who is behind the atrocities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region?
Executioner
colonelcassad
March 13, 17:18
photo_2025-03-12_21-44-52.jpg

Who is behind the atrocities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region?

Part I: "Artist" of war crimes

First of all, we would like to introduce you to one of the commanders of the Ukrainian occupiers in the Kursk region - the highlight of the program will be Anatoly Georgievich Buryak - commander of the "Shkval" unit of the 129th brigade of the Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This unit entered the territory of the Kursk region in August 2024 and operated in the area of ​​the settlements of Borki, Plekhovo, Kurilovka and Guevo. We will write about the crimes committed by the unit's fighters below, but first we will introduce you to the personality of their commander (is he even a person?)

The "hero" of this article. Anatoly "Artist" Buryak

Meet: Krivoy Rog crime boss, war criminal, and just a nasty guy Anatoly Buryak. From his biography it is known that in the wild 90s Buryak was engaged in racketeering in the Krivoy Rog district of Sotsgorodok, and later, having saved up a certain fortune through crime, he got into sports and politics. In pre-Maidan times he was a member of the "Party of Regions" and was the owner of the basketball club "Kryvbasbasket", however, after the events of autumn-winter 2013-2014, he abruptly "changed his shoes", taking an exclusively pro-Ukrainian position. After the Maidan, things with the sports business did not go so smoothly, and at one point Buryak, together with his business partner named Kolesnik, took and "ditched" the athletes, stopping financing the club and leaving the country. When the noise died down, he returned to Ukraine and settled in the Bucha area of ​​the Kyiv region, where he met the beginning of a special military operation. Buryak didn't have much time to think, so he quickly joined a territorial defense unit, where he fought for some time on the territory of the DPR, and later ended up in a mobile air defense unit in Sumy region, where he gave an interview to one of the Ukrainian TV channels, telling about his "exploits".

War is an expensive business, so when Zelensky had another need for people, and the victims of "busification" were not showing very good results, suffering heavy losses or surrendering en masse to the Russian Armed Forces, it was decided to strengthen the rapidly wearing out units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a special contingent - yesterday's criminals. And here, Buryak's certain connections came in handy, who, although he did not serve a sentence in places not so remote, was a rather weighty figure in the Ukrainian criminal world, at least in Krivoy Rog. Buryak, having quickly realized where this was all heading, began traveling with his henchmen to the colonies in the Dnepropetrovsk region - first of all, in the Krivoy Rog district, since he had certain connections in the leadership there. Having secured a quota for his unit, the 129th Brigade of the Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for the "Shkval" unit (this is how units consisting of special contingents are called in Ukraine, an analogue of the domestic "Storm Z"), the Krivoy Rog crime boss received the position of detachment commander there,thus becoming a kind of "boss" for yesterday's criminals.

Recruiting a special contingent from the colonies, Buryak and his henchman with the call sign "Deputy" were preparing for the next "counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, spending time at training grounds in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions of Ukraine. In early August 2024, the unit of the 129th separate brigade of the Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "Shkval" was sent to occupy and hold settlements and adjacent territories in the Kursk region. During the Ukrainian invasion, the militants of "Shkval" managed to be quartered in the settlements of Guevo, Plekhovo and Borki (at the time of writing, Plekhovo and Borki were liberated by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including from the above-mentioned unit, suffered significant losses in manpower and were forced to retreat across the Psyol River). And then a series of war crimes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began.

Part II: Complete carte blanche for atrocities

Entering the territory of the Kursk region, yesterday's criminals (and not only) had complete carte blanche to commit war crimes, the command not only did not prevent this, but also encouraged it in every possible way. For example, Buryak and his henchman "Deputy" personally gave priority for leave and rotation to those persons who unquestioningly followed their orders, and the orders were different:
For example, Buryak encouraged looting in every possible way: it was established that the militants of the "Shkval" detachment took out to the territory of Ukraine a huge amount of household appliances, power tools, gasoline generators, jewelry and motor vehicles of civilians from the territory of the settlements of Plekhovo and Borki. Of course, these household items and motor vehicles did not go to the "common", but to Buryak's personal warehouses in the Sumy region, and where this was subsequently sold is unknown. For their success in looting, the Shkval militants had priority in leaving for the Sumy region for rotation or vacation.
On September 13, 2024, Buryak personally ordered one of the Shkval militants to shoot a civilian (male, 40-45 years old) in the north of the village of Plekhovo. The reason for such an order is not exactly known, but the immediate executor, identified as Turluk Denis Leonidovich, call sign "Kytsya", carried it out without question, shooting the man and leaving his body lying in one of the gardens of Plekhovo. It was also established that for committing a war crime, Turluk D.L. received an incentive from the command in the form of an unscheduled departure from the combat zone to the territory of the Sumy region.

Direct executor of the criminal order
War criminal responsible for the murder of a civilian in the village of Plekhovo in the Kursk region: (we ask law enforcement officers and military personnel of units and formations of the RF Armed Forces to take this information into account in the event that the above-mentioned person is captured)

Full name: Turluk Denis Leonidovich
Date of birth: 11.07.1998
Place of residence: Dnipropetrovsk region, Krivoy Rog district, village Svobodnoye, Kalinina street, 6/6, 69061 Zaporizhia region, settlement KUSHUGUM, Krupskoy street, house 85
Circumstances of the incident: On September 13, 2024, in the settlement of Plekhovo, a 40-45-year-old civilian was shot by a militant of the Shkval detachment, Turluk D.L. The body of the executed person was left lying in one of the vegetable gardens of the settlement of Plekhovo.

It was established that Turluk D.L. had previously served a sentence in penal colony No. 80 in the city of Krivoy Rog.

Part III: Recruitment of special contingent in Ukrainian colonies:

As for the methods of recruiting special contingent from Ukrainian penal colonies, there is a standard scheme: As practice has shown, some colonies are assigned to a certain unit, in particular, colony #80 from Krivoy Rog supplied fighters to the ranks of the 129th Brigade of Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (of course, not without the help of the "authoritative businessman" Buryak, who is a battalion commander in this unit) and the methods of recruiting prisoners were the most common: for example, the head of the operational unit offered prisoners to sign a contract with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because "it is better to go now for money than to have you all taken away for free later." This was also facilitated by Ukrainian propaganda, broadcast around the clock in the barracks - the prisoners firmly believed that the Ukrainian army was winning and "the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already driving the katsaps to the Urals." Of course, there were those willing. From the testimonies of captured "characterniks" it was established that "392 people left the colony for the front, however, there were 420 people who wanted to, 28 people did not pass the so-called professional selection". "Professional selection" means a medical commission and relevant measures to determine fitness for service.

Actually, after signing the contract (the contract with the Armed Forces of Ukraine is signed in the colony, where representatives of the TCC arrive), people from a certain military unit arrive for the newly minted "volunteers", after which they begin a standard course for young fighters, and then are assigned to the front. Some stayed in the "training center" for a long time, some were almost immediately sent to LBS, in any case, all those who wanted to went to war. By the way, Ukrainian "characterniks" are not entitled to pardon, they are promised a vague prospect of parole. According to captured "characterniks", their salaries were not paid in full.

In fact, when recruiting "characterniks", the Ukrainian Armed Forces leadership sets them the corresponding tasks - to kill, rob, rape. Of course, no one in the Ukrainian leadership cares what these people will do at the front with civilians and their property, because in general they don't care how many war crimes will be committed - the main thing is that they share with the higher command and a blind eye will be turned to it.

As for all those involved in war crimes - we will definitely find and punish them. Such acts have no statute of limitations.

t.me/avcgroup - zinc
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Mar 14, 2025 11:26 am

Nuances
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/14/2025

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“There is a US proposal for a comprehensive ceasefire, Ukraine is ready to abide by the rules, and then there is Russia, which is clearly unwilling to exist outside the war. This must be assessed impartially, and the following logical decisions regarding its implementation must be made,” wrote Mikhail Podolyak yesterday, one of the most belligerent figures over the years, but who quickly joined ranks with the rest of the President's Office to play along with kyiv's bluff in accepting a 30-day ceasefire, which they had rejected hours before the meeting and which, according to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, was achieved primarily thanks to the insistence, presumably from the United States. The Jeddah meeting had granted Ukraine much of its objectives—the minerals deal and, above all, ensuring that Washington would not view Zelensky as an obstacle to peace—though not all of them. kyiv had no choice but to accept the US proposal, later renamed the Ukrainian-American proposal, for a comprehensive ceasefire.

Immediately, the country that had failed to comply with each and every one of the countless ceasefire processes of the Minsk years and had obstructed the peace agreements by introducing new conditions or simply delaying the process for seven years, became the main champion of peace. There was no contradiction between this position of demanding a just and lasting peace as soon as possible and announcing that the country would never give up the lost territories, whose liberation it demands, or that Zelensky and his allies would continue working on security guarantees with the military presence of NATO countries as an essential part of a peace agreement they know Russia cannot accept. In reality, the current ceasefire seemed at first glance to be the temporary equivalent of presenting the Alliance's presence as a definitive solution, one of the main causes of the outbreak of the war. That attitude, along with the Minsk precedent, which made it clear that a ceasefire without a political framework that moves toward a definitive agreement is never sustainable, raised doubts about Russia's response. Hence the campaign by Western authorities that has tirelessly repeated the phrase "the ball is in Russia's court."

The agreement imposed by the United States on an actor without the capacity to refuse the will of its arms and intelligence supplier placed Russia in an awkward position, having to accept or reject a measure that a priori does not benefit it - it is not Russia that has lost the initiative at the front, is on the verge of collapse at Kursk and is struggling to recruit enough infantry to continue sending to the front line - and in whose negotiation it has not participated.

“There is no public negotiation. A ceasefire means nothing if war returns. Ukraine needs deterrence. Europe’s role in the talks is unclear, but sanctions and security commitments are important. The minerals deal with the United States doesn’t guarantee security, but it links US interests to Ukraine,” wrote Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former finance minister during Zelensky’s first term and now president of the Kyiv School of Economics, summarizing Marco Rubio’s remarks after the Jeddah meeting. Ukraine had not only gotten Mike Waltz to affirm that there is a sense of harmony between Washington and Kyiv, with a clear desire to seek an end to the war, but also got Marco Rubio to refer to the need for security guarantees and admit that the minerals deal is not exactly the necessary shield. Considering that the following day the US Secretary of State spoke of the need to include European countries in the negotiations, everything indicates that Washington's position on this matter has not changed and that it expects continental countries to take charge of managing and paying for these measures that are intended to guarantee Ukraine's security.

Since the meeting in Saudi Arabia ended and the 30-day ceasefire proposal was announced, along with plans for an imminent trip by Steve Witkoff, apparently designated to manage direct negotiations between the United States and Russia, the main line of speculation has been Moscow's response. The proclamations of peace from the same countries that have been talking for weeks about the need to continue fighting until Ukraine reaches a position of strength, and their demands for Russia's acceptance of the ceasefire, clearly demonstrated the theatrical play to which Moscow responded yesterday. The Kremlin could not afford to give European countries and Ukraine the satisfaction of portraying Russia as an obstacle to peace, so a toning down of the rhetoric of denying the ceasefire in favor of seeking a permanent solution was to be expected.

"Russia presents its demands for talks with the United States on Ukraine," wrote Reuters yesterday morning , listing a series of Russian proposals, though without specifying exactly whether these were demands for a ceasefire or for a permanent peace. Considering that these include the NATO issue and the borders between Russia and Ukraine, it is clear that this is the maximum position Moscow intends to take into negotiations, whether with Washington, Kiev, or both. However, neither this speculation nor the Financial Times' speculation about the quiet negotiations on the possibility of Ukraine becoming a "Greater Austria," a model of neutrality that has worked for eight decades, resolved the question of whether the Kremlin would accept the truce proposed by the United States.

In the morning, when it was already known that the plane carrying Steve Witkoff from Doha to Moscow was already in the air, one of the Kremlin's top foreign policy advisers made the first official statements specifically regarding the proposal. Referring to the possibility of a 30-day ceasefire, Yuri Ushakov insisted that Moscow seeks "a long-term resolution that takes into account Moscow's interests and concerns," a comment that media outlets such as the BBC interpreted as an indication that Russia would not accept the proposal, as Kiev and its most belligerent allies had possibly expected. Shortly thereafter, Dmitry Peskov implicitly confirmed that Vladimir Putin, who visited Kursk on Wednesday, would refer to the war in Ukraine in his joint press conference with Alexander Lukashenko. Throughout the day, it was also confirmed that the meeting with Witkoff, the first time since the Russian invasion that the Russian president would meet face-to-face with a US envoy, would take place yesterday afternoon.

In the press conference where the presidents of Russia and Belarus ratified the mutual security agreement, Vladimir Putin finally revealed the Kremlin's position on a proposal he had not yet officially received. Calling Ukraine's bluff and raising the stakes was always the most comfortable position, which in Putin's speech can be defined as "yes, but with nuances." As expected, Moscow cannot afford to say no to a ceasefire; the Russian president expressed his support for a cessation of violence, but demanded conditions. The issues raised and the measures proposed are not among those listed by Reuters , but are intended to get the process going and, above all, direct it toward that phase that Kiev has long been trying to avoid: a final negotiation in search of a definitive agreement. In other words, Russia is tempering its refusal to accept a ceasefire that benefits Ukraine, while demanding progress toward a process in which Kiev would arrive weakened by the loss of much of its Kursk asset.

“If we halt military actions for 30 days, what does this mean? That all the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region will leave without a fight? That we will let them leave after they have committed many crimes against civilians? Or will the Ukrainian leadership give the order to lay down their arms and surrender? This is not clear,” Vladimir Putin stated internally. “Russia agrees with the proposals for a cessation of hostilities, but it assumes that it must lead to lasting peace. We are in favor of a ceasefire, but there are nuances,” he insisted, going on to detail specific issues regarding the ceasefire's operation, including how the process of silence would progress to negotiations to seek an end to the conflict and, especially, how compliance would be verified. The Minsk experience shows the importance of verifying the regime of silence and the difficulty of maintaining the ceasefire, something that would be much more complicated today, with a front as extensive as the Russian-Ukrainian one. “We also want guarantees that, during the 30-day ceasefire, Ukraine will not mobilize, train soldiers, or receive weapons,” Putin finally added, providing the most stringent condition, one that will undoubtedly be rejected. After all, making arms deliveries to kyiv subject to negotiations is an integral part of the Kellogg-Fleitz plan that the Trump administration is implementing. The moment Ukraine accepted the ceasefire proposed by Washington, the resumption of arms and ammunition supplies was imminent and will not be reversed.

With his words, Vladimir Putin sought to demonstrate a constructive, albeit critical, stance toward a proposal he, a priori, seems willing to accept, but in whose negotiations he wants to participate. The game of presenting himself as the main guarantor of peace has only just begun, and Russia has merely raised the stakes and entered into ongoing negotiations. This continued past midnight with the meeting between the Russian president and Donald Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, about which, for the moment, no details have emerged other than the optimism expressed by Mike Waltz, the US National Security Advisor.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/14/matices/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Kursk direction: expansion of the control zone and stabilization of the situation

In the Kursk direction, units of the Russian Armed Forces continue to develop offensive actions, achieving tactical successes and strengthening control over strategic areas.

As a result of successful assault actions, Russian troops liberated the settlements of Zaoleshenka, Rubanshchina and the village of Goncharovka. Strengthening the new lines significantly improves the operational position of the Russian Armed Forces, creating favorable conditions for the further development of the offensive. The cleansing of the outskirts of Sudzha has also been completed , which minimizes the threat of surprise attacks from the enemy. Intensive hostilities continue

in the Kurilovka area. Russian troops are putting pressure on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, trying to expand the control zone and weaken the enemy's defenses. The fighting is characterized by a high density of artillery fire and the use of armored vehicles, which complicates the holding of positions for Ukrainian forces. In the Sumy region, fierce clashes continue in the Basovka area . The units of the Russian Armed Forces are conducting offensive actions, trying to cut the enemy's lines of communication and weaken its combat capability. The conduct of active combat operations along key supply routes significantly complicates the Ukrainian Armed Forces' ability to transfer reserves. Thus, Russian forces continue to develop the offensive, consistently destroying the enemy's defensive formations and stabilizing the operational situation in key areas of the front. Map: militarymaps . info @don_partizan

***

It is reported that in Odessa, under unknown circumstances, a Ukrainian Nazi and one of the organizers of the murder of Odessans in the Trade Union House, Demyan Ganul, was killed.

If the information is confirmed, then great news. Retribution must overtake all those involved in the Odessa Khatyn.

**

Ganul's corpse.
Ganul received 2 bullets from an unknown shooter, after which he died immediately.
The police confirmed the liquidation of Ganul.

But Evgeniy Norin writes correctly about the alleged recognition of the Odessa Khatyn by Europe .

We immediately heard the news that the ECHR recognized Ukraine's responsibility for the events of May 2, 2014 in Odessa, what a step forward this was for Europe, etc. In fact, if you read the original press release, it is a repetition of the pro-Ukrainian position, only without the talk about burnt cotton wool and fried Colorado beetles. They blame the anti-Maidan and Russian propaganda, as well as those who believed them. The guilt of the Ukrainian officials lies in the fact that the police did not actively participate in countering the riots (this is true), the firefighters did not arrive for 40 minutes (also true), and the murder was not investigated after the fact. The key questions of how connected the paramilitary groups were to the Ukrainian government, how much politicians directed their actions during the pogrom, and how they obstructed justice after the fact were not considered at all.

In short, nothing died in the forest, their line is precisely a purely pro-Ukrainian view, cutting off the most bloodthirsty idiocy in the spirit of "It's good that Colorado beetles can't fly." Don't worry about old Europe, she didn't let you down.


https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Britain Wants Ukraine’s Minerals Too
March 13, 2025
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“It’s not just Trump.” Mark Curtis reports on the U.K.’s scramble for Ukraine’s natural resources.

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U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy looking up at Ukrainian flags while visiting Kiev on Feb. 5. (Ben Dance / FCDO /CC BY 2.0)

By Mark Curtis
Declassified UK

When U.K. officials signed a 100-year partnership with Ukraine in mid-January, they claimed to be Ukraine’s “preferred partner” in developing the country’s “critical minerals strategy.”

Yet within a month, U.S. President Donald Trump had presented a proposal to Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelensky to access the country’s vast mineral resources as “compensation” for U.S. support to Ukraine in the war against Russia.

Whitehall was none too pleased about Washington muscling in.

When Foreign Secretary David Lammy met Zelensky in Kyiv last month he reportedly raised the issue of minerals, “a sign that [Keir] Starmer’s government is still keen to get access to Ukraine’s riches”, the iPaper reported.

Lammy earlier said, in a speech last year:

“Look around the world. Countries are scrambling to secure critical minerals, just as great powers once raced to control oil.”
The U.K. foreign secretary was correct, but Britain itself is one of those powers, and Ukraine is one of the major countries U.K. officials — as well as the Trump administration — have their eyes on.

It’s no surprise why. Ukraine has around 20,000 mineral deposits covering 116 types of minerals such as beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, zirconium, rare earth metals and nickel.

The country, whose economy has been devastated by Russia’s brutal war, also possesses one of the world’s largest reserves of graphite, the largest titanium reserves in Europe, and a third of the continent’s lithium deposits.

These resources are key for industries such as military production, high tech, aerospace, and green energy.

In recent years, the Ukrainian government has sought to attract foreign investment to develop its critical mineral resources and signed strategic partnerships and held investment fora to showcase its mining opportunities.

The country has also begun auctioning exploration permits for minerals such as lithium, copper, cobalt and nickel, offering lucrative investment opportunities.

Media narratives largely parrot the U.K. government’s interests in Ukraine being about standing up to aggression. But Whitehall has in the past few years stepped up its interest in accessing the world’s critical minerals, not least in Ukraine.

‘Critical Minerals Work’

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Map of minerals of Ukraine, 2022. (Zbigniew Dylewskie / Wikimedia Commons /
CC BY 3.0)

Nusrat Ghani, a trade minister in Rishi Sunak’s government, held at least 10 meetings on the subject of critical minerals in 2023 and the first half of 2024, government transparency data shows.

Among the companies she met were giant U.K. mining corporations Rio Tinto and Anglo American, and arms exporter BAE Systems and military aerospace lobbyists, ADS.

It is not clear if Ukraine was the subject of these discussions but one other prominent firm Ghani met to discuss “mineral supply chains” was Rothschilds, which has extensive interests in Ukraine.

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Rothschild & Co Bank’s London offices in the New Court building. (Adrian Welch /Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 2.5)

Ghani held a discussion with the Paris-headquartered global advisory firm in April 2023 while her successor Alan Mak did so the following year in May. Mak met the firm “to discuss Rothschild’s critical minerals work,” the data show.

The corporation was invited to the 2023 Ukraine Recovery Conference held in London and is a member of the U.K.-Ukraine Finance Partnership. It has also been the main adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance since 2017.

Rothschilds, on whose board sits former U.K. National Security Adviser Lord Mark Sedwill, has no less than $53 billion invested in Ukraine.

‘British-Ukrainian Partnership’

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(GOV.UK)

Writing recently in Unherd, researcher Sang-Haw Lee quotes a senior Labour figure saying the U.K. was involved in extensive negotiations for the whole of last year relating to securing exclusive access to Ukraine’s minerals, but that adequate government support was not forthcoming.

Some other meetings have crept into the public domain. Last April, two prominent U.K. parliamentarians met one of Ukraine’s largest mining investment companies in London to discuss “British-Ukrainian partnership in the field of critical minerals mining.”

BGV Group, which has investments of $100 million in Ukrainian mining projects, held discussions with then energy minister, Lord Martin Callanan, and Bob Seely, then a Conservative MP who sat on Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee.

The company is seeking investors for its graphite and beryllium projects and said in a media release that “Ukraine has all the prerequisites to become one of Britain’s main suppliers of critical minerals crucial for advanced technologies and the green energy transition.”

“As Ukraine’s ultimate European ally, the U.K. could leverage its strong position within NATO to help secure mining sites and transportation routes”, writes Andriy Dovbenko, the founder of U.K.-Ukraine TechExchange.

‘Vast Resources’

The U.K. government’s “Ukraine Business Guide” notes that “Ukraine has vast resources” and “a rich mineral base of iron ore, manganese, coal, and titanium.”

Certainly, enhancing access to critical minerals has been a broad priority across Whitehall over the last three years.

The U.K. produced its first-ever Critical Minerals Strategy in 2022 and updated this with a refresh” the following year. It identifies 18 minerals with “high criticality” for the U.K., including several present in Ukraine, such as graphite, lithium and rare earth elements.

The U.K.’s strategy aims, among other things, to “support U.K. companies to participate overseas” in supply chains for these minerals and “champion London as the world’s capital of responsible finance for critical minerals.”

As part of its critical minerals strategy, the government set up a so-called Task & Finish group, analysing the risks to U.K. industry, and including participants from BAE, Rio Tinto and ADS. The group highlights titanium, rare earth elements, cobalt and gallium as among the minerals with a supply risk to the U.K. military sector.

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Zelenskyy pouring water for Starmer during a NATO Ukraine Council session at the military alliance’s summit in Washington, D.C., in July 2024. Then President Joe Biden and NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg on right. (Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

The U.K. has also launched a Critical Mineral Intelligence Centre and established a Critical Minerals Expert Committee to advise the government.

A report by the Foreign Affairs Committee on critical minerals published in December 2023 concluded that “the U.K. cannot afford to leave itself vulnerable on supply chains that are of such strategic importance.”

A sign of how seriously the government is taking the issues is that it says it will “ensure consideration for critical minerals is embedded” in the free trade agreements it is negotiating with a range of countries.

‘Regulatory Structures’

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Starmer and Zelenskyy in Kiev in January when they signed a 100-year partnership agreement. (Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street/ Flickr/ CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Accessing minerals overseas often depends on loosening government regulations to enable foreign corporations to strike favourable deals.

The 100-year partnership declaration commits the U.K. and Ukraine to “supporting development of a Ukrainian critical minerals strategy and necessary regulatory structures required to support the maximisation of benefits from Ukraine’s natural resources, through the possible establishment of a Joint Working Group.”

The thrust of the partnership is to “support a more enabling environment for private sector participation in the clean energy transition” and to “attract investments of British companies in the development of renewable energy sources.”

More generally, the two sides will “work together to boost and modernise Ukraine’s economy by progressing reforms that aim to attract private finance” and “boost investor confidence.”

As Declassified recently showed, British aid to Ukraine is focused on promoting these pro-private sector reforms and on pressing the government in Kyiv to open up its economy to foreign investors.

Foreign Office documents on its flagship aid project in Ukraine, which supports privatisation, note that the war provides “opportunities” for Ukraine delivering on “some hugely important reforms.”

The U.K. supports a project called SOERA (State-owned enterprises reform activity in Ukraine), which is funded by USAID with the U.K. Foreign Office as a junior partner.

SOERA works to “advance privatization of selected SOEs [state-owned enterprises], and develop a strategic management model for SOEs remaining in state ownership.”

U.K. documents note the programme has already “prepared the groundwork” for privatisation, a key plank of which is to change Ukraine’s legislation.

“SOERA worked hand-in-hand with GoU and proposed 25 pieces of legislation of which 13 were adopted and implemented,” the most recent documents note.

‘Geostrategic Rivalries’

Much U.K. foreign policy and wars can be explained by Whitehall wanting British corporations to get their hands on other countries’ resources.

The 2003 invasion of Iraq was mainly about oil while decades earlier the U.K.’s brutal war in Malaya in the 1950s was substantially about rubber. Britain’s support for apartheid South Africa is significantly explained by the U.K. wanting continued access to South Africa’s massive mineral resources.

But the main concern now is China, which is the biggest producer of 12 out of the 18 minerals assessed by the U.K. as critical.

The Ministry of Defence’s major geopolitical forecast, its “Global Strategic Trends,” released last year, makes 57 mentions of minerals, noting that they “will become of increasing geopolitical importance” and could lead to “new geostrategic rivalries and tensions.”

History suggests that Whitehall’s international strategy on critical minerals, and its scramble for Ukraine’s, will continue to shape U.K. foreign policy and contribute to these future international tensions.

https://consortiumnews.com/2025/03/13/b ... erals-too/

It would appear that the Brits are as delusional in this as with so many other things.

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Riyadh 'Ceasefire'? Analysis and reactions

Why declared 'openness to a temporary ceasefire' is probably a trap. Ukrainian and Russian reactions
Events in Ukraine
Mar 12, 2025

Is the war finally coming to a close? While events are certainly transpiring, so far it looks dubious. Here’s a list of today’s topics:

Zelensky hardliners against any ceasefire seem to believe that Zelensky’s agreement to (openness to) ceasefire in Riyadh is still an epic victory.

Maybe they’re right - Ukrainian political analyst Ruslan Bortnik isn’t optimistic about the new ‘agreement to openness to temporary ceasefire’

Responses from Ukrainian’s Trumpian (Dubinsky) and Euro-Nationalist (Honcharenko) opposition figures

Takes from Russia

A Ukrainian diplomat at the talks gives a strange account of ‘difficult compromises’ made due to exhaustion

Zele Loyalists Vindicated?
It’s been 10 days since Zelensky #resisted Trump’s (Krasnov?) nefarious demand for peace. Since then, Zelensky seemed to be going full steam ahead allying the West against the grand Russo-American fasco-communist condominium. Top Zelensky mouthpieces in Ukraine like parliamentarian Mariana Bezuhla were putting out defiant calls for forever war:

If the Ukrainian people are forced into a ceasefire, it will be our de facto capitulation, opening the way for the enemy to a new, even larger war. (March 1)

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And on the eve of the March 12 Ukraine-US negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Bezuhla stayed firm:

Do not expect anything from the negotiations—we are FORCED to get used to perceiving the U.S. government as our enemy and an ally of Russia.

To ensure that no one on the Ukrainian side agrees to surrender, any signature from Ukraine under the current circumstances is a step toward capitulation.

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As you can see, telegram users weren’t impressed.

Zelensky advisor Serhiy Leshchenko was also adamantly opposed to any ceasefire. Certainly a hardliner, especially given his much-publicized love for cocaine and other snortable substances.

Leshchenko is also well-known for being the USAID-funded journalist who fired the first volley in what would become the Manafort scandal. Rudy Giulani’s least favorite person in Ukraine, maybe on earth. Anyway, plenty of bad blood with Trump. I have no clue why Zelensky is keeping him around at the current conjuncture, but what can you expect from him.

Anyway, here’s Leshchenko’s brave March 10 intervention as described by strana.ua, Ukraine’s top oppositional media source:

Ukraine will not agree to a ceasefire on land, said Serhiy Leshchenko, an advisor to the head of the Presidential Office.

According to him, American aid is not so critical that Ukraine should stop fighting under conditions that are being "imposed" on it.

"Trump asks: Is there a plan for a ceasefire? We answer: Yes, we have a ceasefire plan. We propose stopping fire from the air. This includes drones, missiles, and ballistic weapons. We also propose a ceasefire at sea. We commit not to attack. This, by the way, is paradoxical, because we currently hold the initiative in the Black Sea. We also propose not to attack energy infrastructure. If you want a ceasefire, we are ready. But not on land, where Putin could use the ceasefire for several months to treat his wounded, recruit infantry from North Korea, and restart the war," Leshchenko said during a televised marathon.

He also stated that 70% of Ukrainian military losses are caused by drones, and by this logic, Ukraine's proposal should be "beneficial" for Russia.

It is important to note that the statistics do not refer to long-range drones, the use of which Zelensky is proposing to ban, but rather FPV drones, which are used on the front lines against enemy equipment and personnel. Their use cannot be stopped without a full ceasefire "on land," which Kyiv opposes.

At the same time, Zelensky's proposal would nullify Russia's advantage in long-range strikes, since Moscow has more missiles and drones capable of hitting Ukraine from a distance.

As for naval strikes, Russian forces regularly shell Ukrainian ports and ships docked there, while Ukraine conducts attacks at sea far less frequently.


Image
Leshchenko, ex-husband of DJ Nastya

But nevertheless, last night’s Ukraine-US negotiations in Riyadh seem to have concluded with Ukrainian ‘defeat’. Zelensky’s representative at the talks (or puppetmaster, depending who you ask) Yermak agreed to Trump’s demand for a 30-day ceasefire last night. What happened?

One has to note Washington’s cutting off of military aid as a suitable incentive. The White House now claims that the flow of intel and arms to Ukraine has started up again. Perhaps my pre-Trump skepticism of the ‘great peacemaker’ wasn’t without merit.

Skeptical views
Jn reality, this ‘ceasefire’ is nothing of the sort. Director of the Ukrainian Institute for Politics Ruslan Bortnik isn’t too optimistic about it. Bortnik is nowadays often cited by Politico, but I’ll also add that he is a Russian-speaker who generally appeared on ‘pro-Russian’ television channels in Ukraine. His thriving in wartime speaks to both his political acumen and the fact that many ‘pro-Russian’ politicians still remain quite powerful (sometimes in their capacity as hostages).

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... -reactions

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Tarik Cyril Amar: Rape and torture: Will the West cover for Kiev’s war crimes?
March 13, 2025 natyliesb
By Tarik Cyril Amar, RT, 2/4/25

Russia’s Investigative Committee has announced the initiation of a criminal investigation into the killing of civilians in a small village in Kursk Region.

The region on the border with Ukraine is, of course, the site of the worse than pyrrhic incursion which Kiev launched into Russian territory last August. Since initially being overrun, the territory under the control of Ukrainian forces has unsurprisingly been shrinking under a Russian counterattack, while Kiev has been wasting its soldiers’ lives on yet another strategically absurd and tactically mulish to-the-last-man stand in classic Zelensky style.

Against this grim backdrop, the village in question, Russkoye Porechnoye, was under temporary Ukrainian occupation before being liberated by Russian forces. Entering the settlement, those forces reported finding evidence of the crimes that are now under investigation.

Specifically, Russian prosecutors charge Ukrainian forces with severely abusing and killing 22 civilians (11 men and 11 women) in Russkoye Porechnoye. They have also identified five individual Ukrainian servicemen as perpetrators: they go by the field pseudonyms of “Kum” (godfather), a platoon commander, “Motyl” (moth), “Provodnik” (conductor), and “Khudozhnik” (artist) and belong to Ukraine’s 92nd assault brigade. A fifth man, Evgenii Fabrisenko, is of special importance as he is the only one – at least until now – who has been apprehended by Russian forces.

His confessions, partly shown on Russian primetime news and on widely watched talk shows, seem to be a key source for information on the other perpetrators. Apart from providing details about the cruel abuses – including rape – and killings in Russkoye Porechnoye, Fabrisenko also claims that the perpetrators received an order from their battalion commander to “cleanse” the settlement. That is an important detail since it implicates the commander in the crimes even if he was not personally present.

At this point, the Russian authorities have launched an investigation, named suspects, and made specific accusations. It is true that, at the same time, Russian media and politicians treat the crimes already as fact: Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, for instance, has underlined that the atrocities of Russkoye Porechnoye must be acknowledged and widely publicized, even if the West and Ukraine pretend to be deaf to this kind of news. Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry, has denounced the crimes as typical of the “terrorist and Neo-Nazi” Kiev regime, which, she stressed, is supported by the West.

But the investigations have not been completed, and trials have not yet taken place. At least until then, conclusive assessments of what exactly happened in Russkoye Porechnoye and who precisely took part in it are out of reach. It should be noted, however, that things can get even worse: Russian prosecutors speak of five identified perpetrators at least. Others might still become targets of investigation. The battalion commander, in any case, seems liable to be charged under the command responsibility principle.

Even without speculating, we do know a few things already: very serious, detailed allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity have been made. Russian prosecutors and media are showing us pieces of evidence and of the confessions of one of the accused. Leading Russian politicians have invested their credibility into supporting these allegations.

Even if some of the rhetoric around the case in the Russian media is, unsurprisingly, intense (it would be everywhere), there is no good reason to simply dismiss all of the above as “fake.” Yet that is what Ukraine and the West have done. Intriguingly, with few exceptions that seem to almost fulfill an “alibi” function, this wholesale dismissal has mostly taken the form of keeping quiet about the case: try googling for “News” about “Russkoye Porechnoye” in Russian and in, for instance, English, and the pattern is clear. That may still change in the future, but it is already a fact that the initial Western and Kiev response has been what the Germans call “totschweigen,” that is, hushing something up until it is – or at least seems – dead.

In that regard, as a minimum, both Peskov and Zakharova have an important point: even if Western and Ukrainian observers and politicians want to contradict Russia’s version of events, their silence is entirely inadequate, in three regards:

First, despite endless Western mainstream media brainwashing there is no a priori reason to simply dismiss the Russian accusations because they also carry an inevitable political charge: In general, facts can do so and still be facts. In the case of Russia, specifically, its record of telling or not telling the truth is, actually, no worse than that of the West or Ukraine (witness the ludicrous Western and Ukrainian lying about the Nord Stream sabotage or Western denialism about Israeli genocide), to say the very least.

It is true that Amnesty International has criticized prior Russian judicial procedures against Ukrainian POWs as unfair. In 2023, a UN commission of enquiry found that “Russian authorities have used torture in a widespread and systematic way in various types of detention facilities.” Yet even if you believe all of the above, it is reasonable – and not “whataboutism,” that last refuge of the special pleader – to apply the same standards to every state: The Ukrainian army, for instance, has an extensive and well-documented record of horrendous and pervasive illegality, including kidnapping, assassinations, “renditions,” and torture. And yet no one in the Western mainstream media would simply dismiss without further ado allegations that its officials make about others’ crimes.

Thus, if you take allegations out of Kiev, Washington, or, say, London seriously enough to give them at least a hearing, you’ll have to do the same for Moscow. You won’t have to – and should not – believe anyone without evidence, but you cannot quickly decide to disbelieve anyone just because you feel you are “on the other team” either.

Second, there is no reason to consider Ukrainian soldiers immune to committing crimes. The West may have turned a blind eye to plenty of very questionable behavior – to put it mildly – by its proxy’s forces, from shelling civilians in Donbass to mistreating Russian POWs. And the Kiev regime has invested heavily in a deliberate attempt to “sell” its war effort as unrealistically kind and innocent.

Yet we still have some evidence independent of any Russian claims: Early in the war, Western media and Amnesty International, for instance, still dared to report Ukrainian crimes. In addition – and again despite the West’s massive efforts at obfuscating and “normalizing” this fact – Ukrainian troops do include substantial numbers of men with extremely violent, far-right ideologies.

In addition, the Ukrainian public sphere has been subjected to a systematic dehumanization campaign, in which all Russians have been depicted not merely as enemies but as monstrous and inferior (often using slurs, such as “vatnik,” a demeaning term implying backwardness; “rashist,” a contraction of “Russian” and “fascist”; or “Orc,” borrowed from Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings). The systematic adoption of this language by the political elite and the mass media has had real effects. As Al Jazeera reported as early as May 2022, even a humble sales clerk in Kiev knew and shared its message: “They’re orcs because we don’t consider them human.”

Indeed, many Western “friends” of Ukraine had nothing better to do than to excuse, encourage, and even adopt this foul rhetoric. Those who may wish to justify such talk as a virtually inevitable consequence of war will still have to admit that it can have severe consequences beyond words: soldiers – that is men with arms who can end up in positions where they have the upper hand over civilians without arms – taking this dehumanizing language seriously will feel free, even encouraged to commit atrocities.

And, finally, the third reason why we cannot simply dismiss the Russian accusations is that crimes have victims. If the Russian accusations are borne out, then it will be principally unjust to pretend that the crimes against these victims do not exist or do not matter simply because they are “on the other side.” Because that would imply that these victims do not matter. Yes, there is a fundamental ethical issue here.

It bears repeating that, if we think in large numbers – and this has become a war of very large numbers indeed – then it is still likely that the preponderant majority of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are not criminals. They are now at war, and they live and die violently. I know Russian and Ukrainian and I have met many Russians as well as Ukrainians. Call me naïve if you wish, but I will hope until the opposite is proven that, on both sides, most of those fighting are not rapists or murderers. And when this war will be over, everyone will need to remember this, if they want a better future. Yet everyone will also have to be honest about not only the crimes they accuse others of but also those that some on their own side will have committed.

And as far as the West is concerned, those honest enough to face reality will find that no one has remained innocent. The West – its politicians, intellectuals, and media representative – in particular, will have to admit its abysmal, essential contribution to making this war happen and keeping it going. The psychological shock delivered by this predictable, late (as always), and inevitable (in the long run) discovery will produce ongoing denial, but also, hopefully, at least some soul-searching. Because a West that always claims the moral high ground must finally understand itself: it is no better than others, and, given its extremely aggressive conduct since the end of the Cold War – not to adopt a longer, also plausible perspective – it may well be worse.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/03/tar ... ar-crimes/

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They Wanted Kursk Battle.

They've got it. This is for those who get lost in scales and proportions--a reminder. This all has been happening at the small wedge of the Kursk Oblast initially about 400 sq.km (roughly 154 square miles). This is roughly the area half that of the area of NYC. "Brilliant" NATO planners, especially British, who for some reason consider themselves masters in whatever (primarily chicken shit), pumped into this wedge this "thing", which today doesn't exist anymore. Latest from Russian MoD.

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So, NATO losers decided to kill a whole combined arms army (or roughly the whole of British Army by comparison) of Ukrainian and NATO "advisers" cannon fodder and ... they succeeded, Russians took care of it. Here are the numbers. By the time all disjoined (fractured) groups of shell-shocked, panicked and demoralized wandering remnants of VSU will be completely mopped up, the personnel losses may reach 70, 000. But what's more--the thing which Western militaries simply block out, because it really hurts their feelings--these are kill ratios. While Russian forces did sustain losses, the kill ratio in Kursk is not even an average of 1 to 10-12, it is somewhere on the order of 1 to 15-20. It is a slaughter of the elite, most fanatical and the best trained troops NATO could provide (average VSU "elite" combatant is better than any combatant from the NATO armies, the US Army included). They are not there anymore.
They also excelled at executing their own who didn't want to die under Russian fire. The body of evidence of atrocities not only against own, but Russian POWs and civilians is overwhelming. NATO militaries are forever stained as good only at killing defenseless. This is the end of any kind of "high" (from pot?) moral ground the US Army ("the force for good" like providing ISR for Nazi regime in Kiev and manning its long-range fires against civilians) tries to pretend it occupies--it doesn't. Vladimir Putin was clear--treat ALL of the VSU who committed atrocities as terrorists. Guess what, NATO "advisers" will not have the protection of Geneva, plus--being a de Facto barrier troops (that's where NATO excels too) shooting into the backs of retreating hapless VSU is a war crime and atrocity. So, let's wait and see what Mr. Witkoff tells his counterparts in Moscow this week ...

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/03 ... attle.html

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Who is behind the atrocities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region?
Colonelcassad
March 13, 17:18

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Who is behind the atrocities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region?

Part I: "Artist" of war crimes

First of all, we would like to introduce you to one of the commanders of the Ukrainian occupiers in the Kursk region - the highlight of the program will be Anatoly Georgievich Buryak - commander of the "Shkval" unit of the 129th brigade of the Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This unit entered the territory of the Kursk region in August 2024 and operated in the area of ​​the settlements of Borki, Plekhovo, Kurilovka and Guevo. We will write about the crimes committed by the unit's fighters below, but first we will introduce you to the personality of their commander (is he even a person?)

The "hero" of this article. Anatoly "Artist" Buryak

Meet: Krivoy Rog crime boss, war criminal, and just a nasty guy Anatoly Buryak. From his biography it is known that in the wild 90s Buryak was engaged in racketeering in the Krivoy Rog district of Sotsgorodok, and later, having saved up a certain fortune through crime, he got into sports and politics. In pre-Maidan times he was a member of the "Party of Regions" and was the owner of the basketball club "Kryvbasbasket", however, after the events of autumn-winter 2013-2014, he abruptly "changed his shoes", taking an exclusively pro-Ukrainian position. After the Maidan, things with the sports business did not go so smoothly, and at one point Buryak, together with his business partner named Kolesnik, took and "ditched" the athletes, stopping financing the club and leaving the country. When the noise died down, he returned to Ukraine and settled in the Bucha area of ​​the Kyiv region, where he met the beginning of a special military operation. Buryak didn't have much time to think, so he quickly joined a territorial defense unit, where he fought for some time on the territory of the DPR, and later ended up in a mobile air defense unit in Sumy region, where he gave an interview to one of the Ukrainian TV channels, telling about his "exploits".

War is an expensive business, so when Zelensky had another need for people, and the victims of "busification" were not showing very good results, suffering heavy losses or surrendering en masse to the Russian Armed Forces, it was decided to strengthen the rapidly wearing out units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a special contingent - yesterday's criminals. And here, Buryak's certain connections came in handy, who, although he did not serve a sentence in places not so remote, was a rather weighty figure in the Ukrainian criminal world, at least in Krivoy Rog. Buryak, having quickly realized where this was all heading, began traveling with his henchmen to the colonies in the Dnepropetrovsk region - first of all, in the Krivoy Rog district, since he had certain connections in the leadership there. Having secured a quota for his unit, the 129th Brigade of the Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for the "Shkval" unit (this is how units consisting of special contingents are called in Ukraine, an analogue of the domestic "Storm Z"), the Krivoy Rog crime boss received the position of detachment commander there,thus becoming a kind of "boss" for yesterday's criminals.

Recruiting a special contingent from the colonies, Buryak and his henchman with the call sign "Deputy" were preparing for the next "counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, spending time at training grounds in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions of Ukraine. In early August 2024, the unit of the 129th separate brigade of the Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "Shkval" was sent to occupy and hold settlements and adjacent territories in the Kursk region. During the Ukrainian invasion, the militants of "Shkval" managed to be quartered in the settlements of Guevo, Plekhovo and Borki (at the time of writing, Plekhovo and Borki were liberated by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including from the above-mentioned unit, suffered significant losses in manpower and were forced to retreat across the Psyol River). And then a series of war crimes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began.

Part II: Complete carte blanche for atrocities

Entering the territory of the Kursk region, yesterday's criminals (and not only) had complete carte blanche to commit war crimes, the command not only did not prevent this, but also encouraged it in every possible way. For example, Buryak and his henchman "Deputy" personally gave priority for leave and rotation to those persons who unquestioningly followed their orders, and the orders were different:
For example, Buryak encouraged looting in every possible way: it was established that the militants of the "Shkval" detachment took out to the territory of Ukraine a huge amount of household appliances, power tools, gasoline generators, jewelry and motor vehicles of civilians from the territory of the settlements of Plekhovo and Borki. Of course, these household items and motor vehicles did not go to the "common", but to Buryak's personal warehouses in the Sumy region, and where this was subsequently sold is unknown. For their success in looting, the Shkval militants had priority in leaving for the Sumy region for rotation or vacation.
On September 13, 2024, Buryak personally ordered one of the Shkval militants to shoot a civilian (male, 40-45 years old) in the north of the village of Plekhovo. The reason for such an order is not exactly known, but the immediate executor, identified as Turluk Denis Leonidovich, call sign "Kytsya", carried it out without question, shooting the man and leaving his body lying in one of the gardens of Plekhovo. It was also established that for committing a war crime, Turluk D.L. received an incentive from the command in the form of an unscheduled departure from the combat zone to the territory of the Sumy region.

Direct executor of the criminal order
War criminal responsible for the murder of a civilian in the village of Plekhovo in the Kursk region: (we ask law enforcement officers and military personnel of units and formations of the RF Armed Forces to take this information into account in the event that the above-mentioned person is captured)

Full name: Turluk Denis Leonidovich
Date of birth: 11.07.1998
Place of residence: Dnipropetrovsk region, Krivoy Rog district, village Svobodnoye, Kalinina street, 6/6, 69061 Zaporizhia region, settlement KUSHUGUM, Krupskoy street, house 85
Circumstances of the incident: On September 13, 2024, in the settlement of Plekhovo, a 40-45-year-old civilian was shot by a militant of the Shkval detachment, Turluk D.L. The body of the executed person was left lying in one of the vegetable gardens of the settlement of Plekhovo.

It was established that Turluk D.L. had previously served a sentence in penal colony No. 80 in the city of Krivoy Rog.

Part III: Recruitment of special contingent in Ukrainian colonies:

As for the methods of recruiting special contingent from Ukrainian penal colonies, there is a standard scheme: As practice has shown, some colonies are assigned to a certain unit, in particular, colony #80 from Krivoy Rog supplied fighters to the ranks of the 129th Brigade of Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (of course, not without the help of the "authoritative businessman" Buryak, who is a battalion commander in this unit) and the methods of recruiting prisoners were the most common: for example, the head of the operational unit offered prisoners to sign a contract with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because "it is better to go now for money than to have you all taken away for free later." This was also facilitated by Ukrainian propaganda, broadcast around the clock in the barracks - the prisoners firmly believed that the Ukrainian army was winning and "the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already driving the katsaps to the Urals." Of course, there were those willing. From the testimonies of captured "characterniks" it was established that "392 people left the colony for the front, however, there were 420 people who wanted to, 28 people did not pass the so-called professional selection". "Professional selection" means a medical commission and relevant measures to determine fitness for service.

Actually, after signing the contract (the contract with the Armed Forces of Ukraine is signed in the colony, where representatives of the TCC arrive), people from a certain military unit arrive for the newly minted "volunteers", after which they begin a standard course for young fighters, and then are assigned to the front. Some stayed in the "training center" for a long time, some were almost immediately sent to LBS, in any case, all those who wanted to went to war. By the way, Ukrainian "characterniks" are not entitled to pardon, they are promised a vague prospect of parole. According to captured "characterniks", their salaries were not paid in full.

In fact, when recruiting "characterniks", the Ukrainian Armed Forces leadership sets them the corresponding tasks - to kill, rob, rape. Of course, no one in the Ukrainian leadership cares what these people will do at the front with civilians and their property, because in general they don't care how many war crimes will be committed - the main thing is that they share with the higher command and a blind eye will be turned to it.

As for all those involved in war crimes - we will definitely find and punish them. Such acts have no statute of limitations.

t.me/avcgroup - zinc

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9721871.html

But there is a nuance
March 13, 9:00 PM

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Putin responded to proposals for a ceasefire in Ukraine. In general, we agree, but...

(Video at link.)

Trump has already commented.

I have received news that everything is going well in Russia. I hope that Putin and others are ready to put an end to this nightmare. Putin made a very promising statement, but it was not enough. I hope to meet and talk with Putin.

In the context of the settlement in Ukraine, the issue of control over the Zaporizhzhya NPP is being discussed.

If an agreement with Russia on a ceasefire in Ukraine is not reached, it will be a great disappointment for the whole world.

Ukraine already knows what territories Russia will take for itself. We discussed this and did not work secretly.

As for NATO, Ukraine has known the answer for 40 years


. Putin meets with Wittkoff in the evening

https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonel ... 98_900.jpg

(Anime is for kiddies and wankers.)
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Mar 14, 2025 6:11 pm

THE INDIAN GENERALS PUT THE US CEASEFIRE HORSE AFTER THE RUSSIAN ARMY CART WHERE IT BELONGS — PUTIN INVITES TRUMP TO GET THE DETAILS FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

In this discussion on Thursday morning, Chennai time, two leading Indian military analysts, Lieutenant General (retd) Ravi Shankar and Brigadier (retd) Arun Saghal, explain that the 30-day ceasefire which the Americans and British have proposed for the Ukraine battlefield should follow as one of the outcomes of the end-of-war negotiations, and not be a precondition for talks.

Otherwise, the ceasefire proposal is nothing more than a smoke barrage to cover US and NATO reinforcement and resupply of the Ukrainian forces which are now surrounded or in retreat.

Click to listen to the hour-long podcast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNR6O60t9Oo

Several hours later in the Moscow afternoon, President Vladimir Putin confirmed the Russian order is negotiations before ceasefire. Putin proposed that President Donald Trump telephone him to get the details directly from the horse’s mouth.

“On Ukraine’s readiness to cease the hostilities” — Putin said this is an American scheme to relieve the Ukrainian forces before they are routed and capitulate. “The US-Ukraine meeting in Saudi Arabia [March 11] may look like the Ukrainian side made this decision under pressure from the United States.” Without agreement on military terms, it was a deception, Putin went on. “What will we do about the incursion section in the Kursk Region? What would that mean if we cease fire for 30 days? Does this mean that everyone who is in there will just walk out without a fight? Do we have to let them go after they committed numerous heinous crimes against civilians? Or will the Ukrainian leadership issue a command for them to lay down their arms and just surrender? How will this happen? It is not clear.”

“How will other issues along the entire contact line be solved? It is almost 2,000 kilometres long. As you know, Russian troops are advancing in almost all areas of combat contact. Conditions are also very favourable there for us to block rather large units there. So, how would these 30 days be used? For forced mobilisation to continue in Ukraine? For more weapons to be supplied there? For retraining the mobilised units? Or would none of this be done?”

“All these issues must be meticulously worked upon by both sides. The idea itself is right, and, of course, we support it. However, there are issues that must be discussed. I think we must talk them over with our American colleagues and partners, perhaps have a telephone conversation with President Trump and discuss them with him. However, the idea to put an end to this conflict by peaceful means gets our full support.”

Indian Army Brigadier (retired) Arun Saghal is one of the leading intelligence analysts in India. With a PhD from Allahabad University, he was the founding Director of the Office of Net Assessment, a unit of the Indian Integrated Defence Staff for preparing long-term strategic analyses and forecasts. He has also served as a consultant to the National Security Council, the principal advisor to the Prime Ministry on military and security policy. Dr Saghal has also played leading roles in the Indian Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation (Cs3) and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

He has just published a step-by-step process for implementation after the military lines have been settled operationally on the ground. “Based on the available information and proposals being outlined, as well as our own discussions with important analysts in the West and Russia, an outline of the Cease Fire Process and some suggested steps where India’s role can fit in are outlined below:

1. Agreement on a ceasefire along an accepted line and codify the same. This will form the basis from which the parties must withdraw. (Between parties, prompted by international players – US, NATO, Russians. May include other important players as collateral, here Russia could reach out to India and China (scope for diplomacy).

2. Create a Joint Military Coordination Commission (JMCC) to enable mil‑to‑mil contacts and coordination through which the parties can exchange information and hold each other accountable.

3. A contact group will be the functional element of JMCC. This could be formed for the purpose of; forging coherence to international efforts, to create a greater sense of urgency and focus on common purpose among key stakeholders. Idea being to make proposals, take common initiatives and exert political pressure to reduce tensions; and finally create conditions for dialogue. This would also include legally binding bilateral security assurances visible “peace dividend confidence-building measures are all part of this process”. P5 and BRICS are being talked about as members of JMCC.

4.Bilateral cooperation could be augmented by a third-party Multilateral Liaison Team. Some of the tasks can be agreement on buffer zones and limitation zones for deploying heavy weapons. An international monitoring and verification mission must monitor the ceasefire and verify the withdrawal of heavy weapons. Given the intense antagonism, it will require multinational forces, given India’s experience in ICC in Korea, UN Peacekeeping and above all acceptance as a fair and neutral interlocutor among both parties, are positives for acceptance of India as an important player. There is a possibility, Trump Administration may have some other views, that could include China, leaving India out. A political call will need to be taken on this issue.”

Several hours after the Gunners Shot discussion, here is how President Vladimir Putin spelled out the Russian terms after complimenting Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

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“Q: Olga Knyazeva: Good afternoon. My first question is addressed to President Putin. What’s your take on Ukraine’s readiness for a ceasefire? Have you already received information from the Americans and what is your response going to be?…

A: Vladimir Putin: As for Ukraine’s readiness for a ceasefire, I will tell you how I view it, of course.

But I would like to start by thanking the President of the United States, Mr Trump, for paying so much attention to the Ukraine settlement. We all have enough of our own domestic affairs to attend to. But many leaders of states, among them the President of the People’s Republic of China, the Prime Minister of India, the Presidents of Brazil and the Republic of South Africa are addressing this issue and give it a lot of their time. We are grateful to all of them for that, because this activity is aimed at achieving a noble mission – the mission of ending hostilities and loss of life. This is my first point.

Second. We agree with the proposals to cease hostilities but proceed from the assumption that this cessation should lead to long-term peace and eliminate the root causes of this crisis. Now, on Ukraine’s readiness to cease the hostilities. You know, on the face of it, the US-Ukraine meeting in Saudi Arabia may look like the Ukrainian side made this decision under pressure from the United States. In fact, I am absolutely convinced that the Ukrainian side should have asked the Americans for this decision most emphatically, in view of the situation evolving on the ground, as has just been mentioned here.

And what is the current situation on the ground? Many of you have surely noticed that yesterday I visited the Kursk Region and listened to reports from the Chief of the General Staff, the Commander of the North group of forces and his deputy on the situation in the border area, first of all in the Kursk Region, or rather, in the incursion zone in the Kursk Region.

What is happening there? The situation there is completely under our control, and the grouping that invaded our territory has been isolated. It is completely isolated and under complete fire control. The control of Ukrainian troops inside this incursion zone has been lost. At the initial stages, just a week or two ago, Ukrainian servicemen tried to get out of there in small groups. Now it is impossible. They are trying to get out in very small groups of two or three men because everything is under our complete fire control.

The military equipment has been completely abandoned and it is impossible to remove it; it will remain there, one hundred percent. If this area is physically blocked in the next few days, then no one will be able to leave. There will only be two options: surrender or die. I think in these conditions it would be good for the Ukrainian side to achieve a ceasefire for at least 30 days. We are also in favour of it, but there are nuances. What are they?

First, what will we do about the incursion section in the Kursk Region? What would that mean if we cease fire for 30 days? Does this mean that everyone who is in there will just walk out without a fight? Do we have to let them go after they committed numerous heinous crimes against civilians? Or will the Ukrainian leadership issue a command for them to lay down their arms and just surrender? How will this happen? It is not clear.

How will other issues along the entire contact line be solved? It is almost 2,000 kilometres long. As you know, Russian troops are advancing in almost all areas of combat contact. Conditions are also very favourable there for us to block rather large units there. So, how would these 30 days be used? For forced mobilisation to continue in Ukraine? For more weapons to be supplied there? For retraining the mobilised units? Or would none of this be done?

If so, how will issues related to control and verification be addressed? How can we guarantee and receive guarantees that nothing like this would happen? How will control procedures be organised? I hope everyone understands the complexity of all this at the level of common sense. These are all serious issues.

Who will order to cease fire? What is the price of these orders? Just imagine: almost 2,000 km. Who will be able to determine who violated the potential ceasefire agreement over a distance of 2,000 km and where exactly? Who will be held responsible for violating the ceasefire? All these issues must be meticulously worked upon by both sides. The idea itself is right, and, of course, we support it.

However, there are issues that must be discussed. I think we must talk them over with our American colleagues and partners, perhaps have a telephone conversation with President Trump and discuss them with him. However, the idea to put an end to this conflict by peaceful means gets our full support.”



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ZELENSKIY BENDS, ACCEPTS 30-DAY CEASFIRE IN RIYADH
by Gordonhahn
March 11, 2025

In Riyadh, Saudi Arabia today Ukraine accepted the U.S. proposal to begin a 30-day ceasefire and talks with Moscow. The joint American-Ukrainian announcement reads: “an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation” (www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-un ... in-jeddah/). This is another small step of progress in U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive pursuit in Ukraine, for which he should be applauded. Thus, far he has enticed Moscow with the promise of normnalized relations, the lifting of sanctions, renewed trade, and cooperation on key international issues, most notably Iran’s nuclear weapons potential. On the other side, he has put the stubbornly deluded Ukrainian President, Volodomyr Zelenskiy, in a vice squeezed by demanding Zelenskiy negotiate from Ukraine’s presently weak and weakening position on the battlefronts, freezing intelligence and arms assistance, and delaying the signing of a U.S.-Ukrainian raw materials and infrastructure deal. Despite Ukraine’s agreement to a ceasefire and talks with Moscow after years of rejecting any negotiations with Russia as long as Vladimir Putin remains in president (and one wonders whether the law forbidding such negotiations will be repealed), problems remain, and many obstacles need to be overcome before the Riyadh process can bring peace.

Russian officials have repeatedly stated they will not accept a ceasefire agreement and will continue fighting until a full-fledged peace agreement is reached. A ceasefire has been rejected precisely because the Russians suspect any pause in the fighting will be used to halt Russia’s mounting offensives and to rearm Ukraine. Indeed, the Ameerican-Ukrainian statement on the ceaefire agreement declares that the U.S. “will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine” (www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-un ... in-jeddah/). Trump’s national security advisor Michael Waltz confirmed this, adding that “the current PDA (presidential drawdown authority)… will proceed to the Ukrainians” (https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-o ... in-jeddah/). This remark relates to the Biden administration’s last use of PDA directed to Ukraine in Septeber 2024: “On September 26, 2024, the Department notified Congress of the intent to direct the drawdown of up to approximately $5.55 billion in defense articles and services from DoD stocks for military assistance to Ukraine under Presidential Drawdown Authority” (www.state.gov/bureau-of-political-milit ... or-ukraine). Waltz’s emphasis on the ‘current PDA’ authority is perhaps a tacit allusion to the fact that the Trump has not and may not use PDA to support in Ukraine in future, perhaps depending on Kiev’s willingess to negotiate, despite the inherent contradictiopn in demanding peace talks while supplying weapons. For Ukraine, this may not be a contradiction with an opportunity: to drag out talks while it rearms its forces along the contact line. The Russians will be watching closely and have limited patience. All this threatens the durability of any direct Russian-Ukrainian talks that may ensue.

We will see if this agreement simply backs Putin into a corner, forcing him to agree to the kind of ceasefire he has repeatedly stated Russia would not accept. Putin’s refusal could bring all negotiating progress to a rapid halt, if Trump is not prepared to offer more goodies to Moscow or return to extracting more concessions from Kiev or waiting until the current PDA authority expires. The collapse of Ukraine’s Kursk salient and continuing Russian gains along almost the entire battle front will eventually yield more flexibility by Kiev, presumably. But it is not clear that Zelenskiy controls all his forces, and provocative escalations can be organized by Ukrainian neofascist and other opponents of peace with Moscow in Kiev. Again, the obstacles to peace remain, and they are many.

https://gordonhahn.com/2025/03/11/zelen ... in-riyadh/

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The Azov Lobby

A new Substack about Ukraine's Azov movement
Moss Robeson
Mar 13, 2025

Since the fall of 2022, my focus began to shift from the “Bandera Lobby” to a new phenomenon that I can only call the “Azov Lobby,” when neo-Nazis from the now-famous Azov unit in the National Guard of Ukraine started visiting the United States, and Washington in particular. My obsession with the contemporary OUN-B was rooted in the fact that (almost) nobody else acknowledged its existence. For example, Michael Colborne, who wrote a book about the Azov movement (that came out days after the Russian invasion) and thereafter went completely silent on the topic, has said I’m a “complete loon, avoid him at all costs,” because the OUN-B “doesn’t exist anymore.” (Apologies to my long-time subscribers.) Now that there is (almost) nobody else keeping tabs on — and writing about — Ukraine’s most powerful neo-Nazi movement, I’ve felt obligated to be on the look out for Azovites coming to the United States, at the very least. Since 2022, I’ve written more than 20 articles about Azov (and reposted some here), which certainly doesn’t make me an expert. But I’m not an OUN expert, either. Anyway, I hope nobody minds that I’m putting you all on the “Azov Lobby Blog” mailing list.

The Azov Lobby (2022-24)

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Azov Delegation Visits U.S. — Part One (Sep. 22, 2022), Part Two (Oct. 5, 2022)

Ukrainian Neo-Nazi Visits U.S. — Azov Regiment photographer travels to DC and NYC, Part One (Nov. 10, 2022), Part Two (Dec. 3, 2022)

The Azov Lobby — Part One: Growing Networks to ‘Support Azov’ (Jan. 15, 2023); Part Two: The Intermarium Project (Feb. 5, 2023); Part Three: ‘Support Azov’ vs. ‘Azov One’ (Jun. 14, 2023)

A Special Branding Operation to Nazify Ukraine — Part One: Far-right underbelly of Ukraine’s ‘most powerful brand’ (Jan. 17, 2023); Part Two: M-TAC revisited (Mar. 14, 2023); Part Three: Zelensky boosts crypto-Nazi ‘military community’ (Aug. 8, 2023)

Another Azov delegation visits the United States (Jun. 11, 2023)

‘Ukraine Belongs to Us’ (Jul. 17, 2023) — Azov Lobby updates

‘Who is Afraid of Far-Right?’ (Aug. 15, 2023) — Azov and Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation

Azov Brigade Invades London, Greeted as Liberators (May 29, 2024) — Warm welcome for neo-Nazi movement in England

‘This is Where the Presidents Play’ (Jul. 1, 2024) — Petraeus hosts golf tournament for neo-Nazis at Joint Base Andrews

‘Gandalf’ and ‘Azov 2.0’ (Sep. 2, 2024) — An Azov intelligence officer and propaganda about ‘depoliticization’

Did ‘Our Little Baby’ Make a Nazi International? (Sep. 11, 2024) — Ukrainian military intelligence and ‘Nation Europa’

‘Love is Blind’ Meets Azov (Oct. 1, 2024) — American Azov veteran co-stars in Netflix reality TV show

Azov Goes to Brussels (Oct. 17, 2024) — NATO headquarters welcomes Azov Brigade

Valhalla and the Black Sun (Oct. 22, 2024) — Nazi paganism and the Azov movement

‘Junger,’ ‘Steiner,’ and ‘Terror’ (Oct. 24, 2024) — The neo-Nazi ‘Special Forces’ that recaptured a ‘Russian stronghold’

‘100% Gentle Azovization’ (Nov. 1, 2024) — Neo-Nazis train Ukraine’s Presidential Brigade, and top instructor calls Ukrainians slaves that must be weaponized

‘WW3 is Game On’ (Nov. 10, 2024) — Azov intelligence chief speaks at inaugural military technology conference by new venture capital firm betting big on WW3

Kyiv Youth Forum: Nazis Are Our Future (Nov. 12, 2024) — Azov stars at NATO-sponsored youth conference

Match Made in Azov (Nov. 16, 2024) — Associated Press whitewashes neo-Nazi love story

Which Way Ukrainian Hooligan? (Dec. 31, 2024) — Nazis at a Crossroads: ‘Nation Europa’ or European Union

(All of the listed articles can be accessed at link.)

https://banderalobby.substack.com/p/the-azov-lobby

******

Echoes Of The May 2 2014 Odessa Massacre

On May 4 2014 I wrote about the February coup aftermath in Ukraine:

Two days ago a mob, supported by the fascists Right Sektor, killed over 30 federalist Ukrainians in Odessa by pushing them from their camp into a building and then setting fire to it. Those who escaped the massacre, not the perpetrators, were rounded up by police. Today pro-federalism people besieged the police headquarter in Odessa until the police released those it had earlier arrested.
...
The U.S. plan for Ukraine seems to be to bait Russia into an occupation. This would destroy EU-Russia relations, embolden NATO and help the U.S. to keep the EU as a secondary partner under its control. There would be lots of economic upsides for the U.S. in such a situation. Selling more arms and increasing energy market shares are only the starters.
There are two reasons to believe that this plan will fail:
...
Without Russian intervention and without German support the U.S. campaign against Russia is unlikely to reach its secondary target of isolating Russia. The primary target, Sevastopol harbor in Crimea, was already lost when Russia reunified with the island.

What is left to do then for Washington is to create more chaos in Ukraine and to hope that somehow out of total chaos some new chance may arise to stick it to Russia. For lack of real direction that strategy is also unlikely to succeed.


I was unfortunately wrong with the last sentence though it took the U.S. eight more years to succeed.

But it is the first paragraph I what to refer to today. The current two most popular pieces on the website of Strana are echoing it (machine translation):

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From the first story (machine translation):

Demyan Ganul, who was killed today in Odessa, is a well-known radical activist, a native of the "Right Sector". Later he founded his own organization "Street Front".
Ganul was known since 2014, when he participated in the events of May 2, when dozens of people were killed in the House of Trade Unions. Later, he organized actions against Odessa residents, who laid flowers in honor of the burned-out anti-Maidan activists.
...
Ganul is also widely known for fighting in Odessa with "imperial" and Soviet monuments - to Catherine, Pushkin, and Soviet soldiers. He disrupted concerts of Russian performers, and also harassed residents of the city who spoke out for the Russian language.

Recently, Ganul actively "fought" against those who criticized the mobilization.

The most scandalous case occurred this summer, when Ganul beat up an Odessa fitness trainer after he criticized the recruiting office. After that, the coach disappeared and ended up, presumably, in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, where he was bullied and probably raped.

Ganul himself, as far as is known, did not fight and was engaged in volunteering. But not without scandals. In 2023, he was beaten up, as reported, by the military of the "Foreign Legion" - because Ganul collected money for a car, but did not give it away.


Ganul celebrated each anniversary of the May 2 massacre by posting pictures of himself eating a shashlik, i.e. burned flash.

The guy was a Nazi, a brute and a thug.

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He was shot on the street with a pistol. When he was down on the ground the killer put another bullet into his head (vid) to make sure that he was dead. The murderer then walked away.

There are many such Nazis in Ukraine who are too coward to take part in the war but 'volunteer' in support of police. They are the muscles needed to run various extortion rackets.

During his lifetime, Ganul was a scandalous person and had numerous conflicts. And not only with pro-Russian circles.
The motives for Ganul's murder may not lie in the political sphere at all.

The victim has been engaged in volunteering since 2014, and also worked part-time as an "activist", organizing actions against Odessa businessmen, politicians and city authorities.

For example, he actively supported the Odessa businessman Degas, who is in conflict with the Mayor's office.

In addition, there have long been rumors in the city that Ganul is actually engaged in reket - looking for "victims" - cafes, restaurants, fitness clubs where you can find fault with something, for example, the staff speaks Russian. And then "helps" the owners of establishments.

In other words, he had many enemies. And not only for ideological reasons.


The other most popular news item at Strana relates to yesterday's judgment by the European Court for Human Rights against the authorities of Ukraine:

In the case of Vyacheslavova and Others v. Ukraine the Court held that there had been violations of the right to life/investigation on account of the authorities’ failure to do everything that could reasonably be expected of them to prevent the violence in Odesa on 2 May 2014, to stop that violence after its outbreak, to ensure timely rescue measures for people trapped in the fire, and to institute and conduct an effective investigation into the events. It also held that there had been a violation of the right to respect for private and family life in respect of one applicant concerning the delay in handing over her father’s body for burial.

The courts press release describes the struggle that led to the case:

Maidan activists started setting fire to the tents. A group of pro-Russian protesters on the roof of the Trade Union Building threw Molotov cocktails at the crowd below; pro-unity activists retaliated by throwing Molotov cocktails at the building. Gunshots were reportedly fired from both sides.
Despite numerous calls to the fire brigade, which was less than 1 km away, the fire service regional head instructed his staff not to send any fire engines to Kulykove Pole without his explicit order.

At 7.45 p.m., a fire broke out in the Trade Union Building. The fire extinguishers in the building did not work. The police called the fire brigade, to no avail. Some of the people in the building including Mr Dmitriyev (application no. 59339/17) tried to escape by jumping from the upper windows. He survived the fall and was taken to an ambulance. A number of people fell to their deaths, including the son of Ms Radzykhovska (application no. 59339/17) and the son of Ms Nikitenko (application no. 47092/18). Video footage shows pro-unity protesters making makeshift ladders and platforms from a stage in the square and using them to rescue people trapped in the building. Other video footage shows pro-unity protesters attacking people who had jumped or had fallen.

The regional head of the fire service finally ordered fire engines to be sent to the scene. Fire ladders were used to rescue people from the upper-floor windows. Firefighters entered the building at around 8.30 p.m. and put out the fire. The police arrested 63 anti-Maidan activists who were still inside the building or on the roof. They were released two days later, when a group of several hundred anti- Maidan protesters stormed the local police station where they were being held.

The fire claimed 42 lives.


There are several others well know perpetrators of the May 2 massacre, like Demyan Ganul, who are still running free in Ukraine. Their unrestricted activities underline the necessity of denazification in Ukraine.

May the ECHR judgment and the death of Demyan Ganul give some solace to the victims of the May 2 2014 massacre.

Posted by b on March 14, 2025 at 14:35 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/03/e ... .html#more
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Mar 15, 2025 11:51 am

Cautious optimism
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/15/2025

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Less than a few minutes had passed since the end of the press conference in which Vladimir Putin spoke positively about the idea of ​​a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine, although he introduced certain conditions and, above all, raised questions that, given the precedents, are legitimate—who will monitor compliance with the measures?—when Volodymyr Zelensky's response came. The Ukrainian president could not condemn Russia's rejection of the ceasefire, since it had not yet taken place despite much of the media assuming it had after Yuri Ushakov's critical remarks. But he did preemptively criticize what he sees as preparations for a rejection.

“The US side proposed starting with an unconditional ceasefire. Then, during the period of silence, we could prepare a credible peace plan, present it, discuss the details, and implement it. We are ready,” wrote Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday. Since the Jeddah meeting, he seems to have regained the pacifism that those who voted for him in 2019 believed he would apply. However, unlike at that time, when as a presidential candidate he promised dialogue and compromise even if it meant tough concessions, peace does not come through negotiation but through the dictation of specific terms. Echoing Ukraine's attitude throughout the Minsk process, when kyiv sought to impose a victor's peace without having been able to militarily, politically, or economically defeat its rivals, the People's Republics, Ukraine now demands that the terms be imposed by force, in this case by force from outside. “Ukraine loses ceasefire advantage by giving up troops in Russia,” headlined the Associated Press yesterday , failing to understand the difference between a ceasefire and an armistice.

“After the fall of Suya—with a pre-war population of 5,000, the largest town in Kursk they controlled—Ukrainian soldiers are pessimistic about their ability to hold the remaining territory in the Russian region. And they recognize the political stakes of the defeat,” the article adds, taking the loss of the city for granted, a fact that Ukraine has yet to admit despite Russian journalists already reporting from there. In El País , Cristian Segura points out that Ukrainian sources point to losses of 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, a significant figure for a negative result beyond propaganda hype. AP adds that Ukraine is rapidly building defensive fortifications, not to hold the small territory of Kursk still in its hands, but to prevent Russian advances beyond the Ukrainian border. In a show of sincerity, the article also admits that commanders reproach their senior officers for not ordering the withdrawal, which is being carried out partly on foot and began weeks ago, when it would have been easier. This statement openly contradicts the idea that it was the interruption of US arms and intelligence supplies that cost kyiv its privileged positions in Suya and other Russian cities.

The United States is not a weakness for Ukraine, but its greatest strength. Kursk was never an asset for a ceasefire. On the contrary, it was much more difficult for Russia to accept a pause in the war at a time of offensive action on its own territory, which would have given Ukraine time to consolidate its positions and prepare its defense. Controlling this small part of Russia was an important opportunity for kyiv in the event of a final negotiation. As Zelensky had admitted, that territory would now be used to try to recover, through an exchange, some of its territories under Russian control. The loss of Suya and virtually everything gained since the August offensive does not eliminate any Ukrainian advantage for a ceasefire, but rather makes it more likely. Accepting it now will no longer be a sign of Russian weakness, as it would be if Ukrainian soldiers still controlled Russian cities.

“And we believe it is our partners' responsibility to ensure that Russia is ready to end the war—not to look for reasons for it to continue for more weeks, months, or years, but to end it. Putin will not end the war alone. But America's strength is sufficient to achieve this,” Zelensky declared yesterday. Kursk can no longer contribute to the Ukrainian cause by pointing out Russian weakness, so it no longer matters. Ukraine's greatest asset cannot be its strength, but that of its main ally. “Firm measures are needed. Strong pressure must be exerted on the only one who wants to continue this war. This is what 'peace through strength' means,” added the Ukrainian president, who always demands more, even yesterday, hours after the resumption of arms supplies was confirmed and when new sanctions from both the European Union and the United States were announced.

Neither actions nor rhetoric are ever sufficiently favorable to Ukraine, and more can always be demanded. This stance is not limited to the Ukrainian government, but extends to European authorities and much of the Western media. In a clear example of this, the BBC website, in its live coverage of the Russo-Ukrainian war and its political implications, wrote yesterday that "this is the moment of truth for President Trump. He refused to set conditions for a ceasefire with Ukrainian President Zelensky. This led to the rift in the Oval Office and Trump halting military assistance and intelligence sharing. Ukraine eventually caved in after meeting in Saudi Arabia. The United States says it now depends on President Putin. Although the Russian leader has suggested some positive aspects of the plan, he is trying to impose conditions. Will President Trump allow it after refusing to do so with Zelensky?" Those who for seven years chose to ignore Ukraine's tactics of delay and sabotage of signed agreements are now asking why Moscow refuses to accept a truce imposed after negotiations without its participation and are looking for ulterior motives from Donald Trump to allow one of the parties to the war, specifically the one with the least incentive to accept a ceasefire now, to have a say.

Curiously, the media have not seen in the American statements and praise after the Jeddah meeting a discourse in Ukrainian terms, which is denounced every time Donald Trump utters words that are not complimentary to Kiev. “These are Russian talking points,” declared the well-known pro-Ukrainian propagandist Julian Röepke in his usual hysterical tone. Röepke has built an aura of respectability despite the newspaper he works for, Bild , and which yesterday denounced the American president's words, in which he heard Vladimir Putin's voice. “Yesterday we had very fruitful talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and there is a good chance that this horrible and bloody war will finally come to an end. BUT, RIGHT NOW, THOUSANDS OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS ARE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY THE RUSSIAN ARMY AND IN A VERY BAD AND VULNERABLE SITUATION.” "I have strongly urged President Putin to spare their lives. God bless them," Donald Trump wrote in another bizarre and misinformed message posted on his personal social media platform.

The situation of some of the Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk is indeed vulnerable, not because they are besieged—they are not—but because the supply routes are under Russian fire. Aware that it was surprised in August and quickly lost control of part of its territory, Russia has avoided any triumphalism in this counteroffensive and has not claimed at any point that thousands of soldiers have been besieged, as happened, for example, in Mariupol, where Ukraine rejected the offer of a green corridor through which the soldiers could retreat. This was done on its own initiative and did not require the intervention of any foreign president. It is unlikely that it will be necessary now if a similar situation were to recur, which is not the case. Ukraine is being progressively pushed back toward the border from three directions, with no risk of a major encirclement, but rather an orderly or disorderly escape that, judging by the precedents of this war, will be permitted if carried out in small groups or even on foot, rather than in military convoys, which do suffer attack from Russian artillery and drones. In any case, in his meeting yesterday with the National Security Council, Vladimir Putin promised to guarantee the lives and decent treatment of Ukrainian soldiers who lay down their weapons in the Kursk region. To achieve this, Russia is demanding that Zelensky, who yesterday stated that the Kursk operation "has accomplished its mission," give the order to withdraw.

Despite words of optimism and praise for the positive talks—not between presidents, but between Witkoff and Putin, who gave the US envoy the Russian conditions for accepting the ceasefire—the US position remains unchanged. On the one hand, Washington has definitively adopted the idea that Ukraine desires peace, so a new interruption in the supply of weapons and intelligence is not to be expected, while it pursues a policy of incentives and threats to get Russia to comply with its demands. The first face-to-face visit by a US representative since the invasion of Ukraine is accompanied by Donald Trump's praise of President Putin and promises of future economic cooperation. However, we must not forget the other side of the coin. In addition to the sanctions imposed on Russian oil trade, with the clear intention of reducing Russian revenues and thus weakening its ability to continue the war, there is also the increased military flow to kyiv. "The United States is poised to resume shipments to Ukraine of long-range bombs known as Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDBs), after they were upgraded to better counter Russian interference," Reuters reported yesterday , explaining that the delivery of these weapons comes now that it has become known that the ATACMS Ukraine had at its disposal to attack Russian territory in depth have been exhausted. The United States combines sanctions against Russia and arms deliveries to Kiev as tools of pressure against Moscow, while forcing Kiev to accept a ceasefire it did not want in exchange for sending it a portion of the weapons it demanded. Incentives and threats are intertwined in the US negotiation strategy, which will soon make clear whether it has been successful and a real ceasefire is achieved, whether the negotiations derail and no ceasefire is reached, or whether, despite a truce, the process continues along the lines agreed upon throughout the Minsk process.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/15/cauteloso-optimismo/

Google Translator

*****

Camo-Putin Emerges to Punt Ball Back to Trump
Simplicius
Mar 13, 2025

Yesterday, Putin sent a powerful message to the West by appearing draped in full military camo regalia for the first time, perhaps, ever. There have been times when he wore a camo jacket over his suit when conducting an inspection of the General Staff HQ:

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And other times when he donned a more informal ensemble, like during a visit to the Dnepr Group HQ near Kherson in 2023:

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But this appears the first time he’s ever strapped on a full set of military camo to signal himself as wartime Commander-in-Chief.

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The message was clear: “We’re prepared to take this conflict to the end, should our demands not be met.”

Peskov, for his part, interpreted it a little differently. He admitted that the uniform was in fact a deliberate message, but not a bellicose one pertaining to the war at large, rather signaling resolve to defeat the enemy in the Kursk region, specifically: (Video at link.)

I beg to differ. Peskov is being diplomatic, without need to upset the applecart. But it’s obvious such strong symbolism, which was made at the time the US negotiations team was en route to Russia, was done to reinforce the notion that Russia “has the cards.”

This is particularly the case given that Trump had also just raised the heat by claiming he could “devastate” Russia economically, should Russia choose not to play ball on the amateurishly cobbled-together ceasefire: (Video at link.)

“I can do things financially that would be devastating for Russia.”

Putin’s choice of attire could have likely been a response to the above not-so-subtle threat from his American counterpart.

And before we even get to the negotiations and Putin’s answer—speaking of the threat above, word has it a major part of what Trump may have been referring to has already taken effect. It concerns Biden’s ‘exemptions’ allowing sanctioned Russian banks to process European payments for oil sales up to the date of March 12, 2025. Trump, it is being reported, has declined to extend this, which means as of yesterday there should be a new major clamp down on Russian oil sales, at least in theory:

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ZeroHedge reports the White House is being intentionally ‘mum’ on the matter, for leverage purposes, but could extend the exemptions, though as of now they have expired.

At this moment the administration remains mum, but here's what Fox Senior White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich wrote Wednesday, hours after the waiver expiration:

Unclear if President Trump reissued waiver on Russian General License 8L - allows other countries to buy Russian oil using US dollar, US payment system. Biden’s waiver expired at midnight.

If POTUS did NOT reissue it, oil prices could rise by $5/barrel by some estimates… but if he DID, POTUS could face some of the same criticism Biden faced, saying it played to Putin’s hand. The White House Press Secretary told us she did not believe it has been reissued but would check on it.

Treasury, State, and WH did not have answers for us yesterday ahead of the deadline.


As per the above projection, the move could raise oil by $5 per barrel, which would obviously be a huge boon to Russia, provided it continues to find ways to navigate around restrictions with its secret backdoors and shadow fleets. Keep in mind, cutting the EU off from Russian oil would arguably hurt the EU far more than Russia, which would be a double boon for Putin; not only would Russian oil profits potentially rise, but the EU itself would be hurt economically, suffer inflation, and be in even worse position to support Ukraine militarily. For Russia, what’s not to like about that?

Presumably, though, Trump has—or thinks he has—more weapons in his arsenal, as hinted at by Scott Bessent:

The Trump administration will "without hesitation" impose the toughest sanctions against Russia if this is necessary for success in negotiations on a Ukrainian settlement - US Treasury Secretary Bessent

We’ll get back to that in a minute.

Let’s now turn to Putin’s response to the ceasefire ‘offer’ today, which can be seen in full below: (Video at link.)

Summary:

Putin's first comment on Ukraine: "I thank Mr. Trump for paying so much attention to the settlement in Ukraine."

Putin: "We agree with proposals to end hostilities, but we proceed from the fact that this cessation should lead to long-term peace and eliminate the root causes of the crisis."

"We are for a 30-day ceasefire, but there are nuances."

"Are we supposed to let the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region if they are currently blocked there? Or will the Ukrainian command tell them to lay down their arms?"

"How will Ukraine use these 30 days? Will it continue mobilization? Will it rearm the army?"

"In general, we support the idea of ​​a peaceful end to the conflict, but there are many issues that need to be discussed."

"We also want guarantees that during the 30-day ceasefire, Ukraine will not mobilize, will not train soldiers, and will not receive weapons."

"The Russian army is "advancing almost everywhere, it is unclear how the situation on the contact line will be resolved in the event of a ceasefire."

"And how will the issues of control and verification be resolved? Who will determine who violated what along the 2,000 kilometers? Who will give orders and what will be the price of these orders? At the level of common sense, this is clear to everyone, these are serious questions. These are all questions that require painstaking research from both sides."


Firstly, Putin brings up some good points. A lot of this rushed ceasefire attempt sounds good on paper, but is unrealistic in practice. How would any of it be enforced, and what does Russia have to gain from it to begin with?

The other thing is, Ukraine has just released their own ‘red lines’, which contravene virtually every one of Russia’s most important demands:

Ukraine presented the US with its "red lines" for peace talks:

No restrictions on the size of the army;

No restrictions on Ukraine's participation in the EU and NATO;

Russia should not have a veto over Ukraine's participation in international organizations.


What exactly, then, is the point of giving Ukraine a 30-day ceasefire, when they are expressly rejecting Russia’s core conditions?

The other point few people have mentioned is that Russia is the only party in this ‘deal’ which essentially gains nothing, and this applies to the wider discussed conflict settlement from the standpoint of the US. The going assumption from the US is that Russia will be “allowed to keep” certain territory it already holds, while Ukraine is given actual new items, whether it’s admission to some bloc, further funding and aid, etc. But think about this: Russia already controls the territories it has won—no one has the right to “give them” to Russia, via some ‘stamp of approval’—Russia already has them. Then what exactly is Russia’s incentive to agree to any deal?

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If Russia doesn’t agree it gets to keep the current territories, if it does agree it gets to….keep current territories, but with some quasi-legitimization, which won’t matter anyway since Ukraine has expressly stated they will never legitimize any annexed territory.

It gets worse. Today, Trump even suggested that Russia may have to give the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant back to Ukraine as part of the final peace deal: (Video at link.)

They are literally not listening to any of Russia’s conditions or demands. Russia has stated repeatedly that no land can possibly be given to Ukraine, because it is now enshrined in the Russian constitution. How deluded does Trump have to be to actually even remotely believe that Russia would hand over the largest nuclear power plant in Europe t (Video at link.)a bunch of ad hoc goose-eggs to score quick political points.

The charade also continues to highlight the incredible hypocrisy of the ‘Rules Based Order’. On the very same day that Trump and the West attempted to guilt-trip Russia into an unfavorable ceasefire, Trump himself threatened to forcibly annex a fellow NATO member’s territory—in front of the Reichsmarschall of NATO himself, no less:


In another video he says: (Video at link.)

TRUMP ON GREENLAND: "Denmark's very far away & really has nothing to do...What happened? A boat landed there 200 years ago or something and they say they have rights to it. I don’t know if that’s true. I don’t think it is, actually."

Particularly egregious are continued reports that a forced military action to seize Greenland is “still on the table”. Even the Danish Defense Committee Chairman was forced to respond to this hostile act:

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The Chairman of Denmark’s Defense Committee, Rasmus Jarlov responds to today’s statement by U.S. President Donald J. Trump while meeting with the Secretary-General of NATO, in which he said that he believed the U.S. annexation of Greenland would happen, with Jarlov stating, “It would mean war between two NATO countries. Greenland has just voted against immediate independence from Denmark and does not want to be American ever.”

What Jarlov references above is the new polls that show 85% of Greenlanders do not want to become a part of the US. What makes the hypocrisy even more outrageous is that in the video above, Trump even hints at a potential referendum for Greenland to join the US. So, referenda are “not democracy” when it comes to Russia in Crimea, Donbass, and elsewhere—but are fine when the US does it?

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The irony was not lost on many observers, who noted that the US is now effectively more of a direct threat to NATO than Russia ever was. Russia has never so much as even hinted at forcibly seizing any NATO territory, while the US is now openly discussing this very fact. Recall that the entire putative purpose of NATO is to ‘protect its members’—a fact the “defensive” alliance so boastfully prides itself on, when it constantly reminds us that NATO is not primarily aimed at Russia.

Nothing proves the contrary more: the alliance has now shown beyond the shadow of a doubt, its only purpose is to threaten and wage war against Russia, while the “defense” portion is a totally bogus red herring, given that one of the original founding members from 1949 is now at threat of hostile invasion, and the very head of NATO himself couldn’t be bothered to show an iota of concern.

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Article 5? What Article 5?

That’s not to mention this alleged news:

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The other glaring contradiction of Trump’s nonsensical position was revealed today when he elected to escalate sanctions and ‘pressures’ against Russia. You see, Trump claims the US has no interest in the conflict, and is essentially not on one side or the other, with Trump even previously having suggested the conflict was not Russia’s fault. He presented himself as a neutral player whose only desire was to bring the bloodshed to an end, no matter how it’s done or who is declared the ‘winner’.

But his actions have exposed this fraud. If he wanted to end the conflict as quickly as possible, he would cease supplying Ukraine, at which point all the bloodshed he pretends to care so much about would quickly end as Ukraine would be forced to capitulate. Instead, he’s now openly chosen to prolong the conflict, given that it’s obvious by supplying Ukraine, Russia will only be emboldened, with both sides now fighting on indefinitely.

Granted, there is a lot of behind-the-scenes action currently in play that we aren’t privy to, and which could eventually redeem Trump’s ‘surface-level’ shenanigans. Trump may feel pressured or trapped into ostensibly supporting Ukraine for now, while still retaining plans to undermine Zelensky and try to bring Ukraine’s ability to fight to an end. After all, the ‘resumption of US aid’ is not new weapons aid, but simply the resumption of the trickle that Biden had already previously earmarked.

Getting back to Putin’s ‘diplomatic’ rejection of the ceasefire, one last thing needs to be said. I’ve stated previously that the way Russia operates is the diplomats and lower functionaries play bad cop and deliver the harsh reality directly, while Putin is forced to play a more delicately balanced and ambiguous role as ultimate statesman and peacemaker, partly to maintain a certain image for important allies like China and the BRICS nations. His rejection of the deal sounded like acceptance to many people, such that it generated an uproar amongst the doomsayer quarters. But as always, it was the aides and functionaries who transmitted the direct sentiment.

In this case, Putin’s foreign policy aide Ushakov told Skabeeva: (Video at link.)

Commentary by Yuri Ushakov, Assistant to the President of Russia:

🔻Ceasefire with the so-called Ukraine:

▪️Russia is not interested in a temporary ceasefire, it is interested in a long-term resolution of the conflict.

▪️Ushakov called the idea of a temporary ceasefire against the backdrop of the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces a hasty action that does not serve the long-term peace.

▪️Ushakov considers the proposal for a temporary 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine a trick and an attempt to give the Ukrainian military a respite.

▪️The final attitude of Russia towards the idea of a temporary ceasefire will be formulated by Vladimir Putin.

🔻Russia - USA relations:

▪️There is a "normal exchange of opinions, in a calm manner" between Russia and the USA.

▪️The Americans understand that Ukraine's membership in NATO cannot be discussed in the context of a peaceful settlement.

▪️The USA has identified a mediator in the negotiations with Russia - it is not Steve Witkoff.

▪️Witkoff came to Russia to discuss not only the Ukrainian issue, but also bilateral relations between Russia and the USA.


He says quite plainly that the current ceasefire proposal is nothing more than a respite for Ukraine to regain its strength—something Putin implied, albeit while ‘beating around the bush’.

Russian ambassador to the UK Andrey Kelin separately reinforced this:

Kelin “We will consider the American proposal for a ceasefire. We will stop military actions only when we have a full, comprehensive agreement. Russia has repeatedly stated that a temporary ceasefire is not an option for resolving the situation.

Image

Several other figures repeated this as well, including Lavrov. Also, note the above WSJ headline’s acknowledgment of the inanity of a ceasefire leveraged with zilch, given that Russia has all the cards and zero incentive. Recall Rubio’s puerile reasoning: Russia should merely do the US a favor and make a “gesture of good will”.

Ultimately, Putin’s manner of rejection was summarized well by one analyst:

How did Russia react to the American initiative for a 30-day ceasefire?

Putin politely thanked Trump for his attention to the problem and responded in great detail to all this “is the ball in Russia’s court?”

In short, “the idea is good, but not feasible.”

In just a couple of minutes, Putin, having supported the proposal, asked so many practical questions that the authors of the initiative will have to answer them for a very long time. And the first attempt will be made today by Trump's emissary Witkoff, who flew to Moscow and who was largely supposed to answer these questions. Before throwing the ball to Russia, you should pump it up well.

Summary: there will be no truce in the near future.


By the way, Yermak also announced that Ukraine “would never accept a frozen conflict”: (Video at link.)

So, what are we even talking about here, then? In that light, what can possibly be the purpose of a 30-day ceasefire other than to allow Ukraine a quick breather, to restock its reserves and button-up critical breakthroughs on the frontline?

(More at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/cam ... -ball-back

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Putin’s Nyet to US-Ukraine Ceasefire Scheme: More Than Meets the Western Eye?
Posted on March 14, 2025 by Yves Smith

Russian officials, now including Putin himself, have responded negatively to the US-Ukraine ceasefire proposal, which is hardly a surprise, since Russian officials have been saying “No ceasefire” every time the topic of Ukraine comes up. But they appear to be sending other messages that the Western press is ignoring but Russians and the Global South may pick up on, such as not being on board with the Trump Administration’s theatrics unduly public process.

As we indicated yesterday, senior Kremlin emissary Yuri Ushakov reaffirmed the repeated Russian rejection of a ceasefire except as part of an agreement that addressed the underlying issues of the Ukraine conflict.1 He did that by replaying what he said to US National Security Adviser on a phone call in a short televised interview. Ushakov tried to have it both ways, saying it was up to Putin to respond officially, but it’s clear that Ushakov was not speaking out of school. Less well reported was that Russian Parliament’s Defense Committee Viktor Sobolev also criticized the US-Ukraine scheme as obviously only in Ukraine’s interest.

I took the speed of the Ushakov remarks, made before friend of and pet negotiator for Trump Steve Witkoff had even arrived in Moscow, to among other things, discuss the US-Ukraine scheme with Russian officials, as a diss, even if it might be too subtle to register on thick-headed and inexperienced Trump officials. The first is the obvious, “What about ‘no’ don’t you understand?” It was disrespectful to Russia to serve up a proposal that tried to talk loudly over what the Russian have said about “no cessation of hostilities until critical matters are settled” since the start of the SMO. So they undercut Witkoff on a fair bit of what he might have been planning to do.2

The second layer of Western disrespect to Russia was the attempt to negotiate via press release. The Russians have also made clear their preference for conducting diplomacy along traditional lines: lower level exchanges of feelers, and lower and more senior private discussions, with announcements made only when there is something to announce (as in progress or some event that forces an official “mumble mumble” on status). Colonel Macgregor, in a fresh talk on the Judge Napolitano show, volunteered at the top of his remarks (starting at 2:38) that we were working against our own interest with this approach:

I think the first thing is it’s unfortunate that we continue to discuss our negotiations and interactions with the Russians in public. I don’t see any point to it. And I think as a result we’re going to be embarrassed somewhat by this latest ceasefire offer. If there is anything the Russians have made clear repeatedly, is that a ceasefire in and of itself is not acceptable. They see that as simply buying more time for their Ukrainian opponent to get equipment, cash, whatever, and rebuild themselves and carry on the fight.

This bad habit may have started with the various members of the US/NATO coalition arm-wrestling with each other in public about how much money and what weapons they would have been sending to Ukraine. It’s bizarre to have given the enemy side so much information. But this may have reflected the Western belief that its materiel was so obviously superior that merely saying the wunderwaffen were en route would have Russian soldiers quaking in their boots. Remember the “Be afraid, be very afraid, Leopard are coming” Ukraine propaganda campaign, which has been disappeared from the Innertubes?

Back to the main event. Putin weighed in not long after that, via a response to a question in a Q&A at a press conference. As you can see, he took the proposal at face value, making clear that even if the form was that the US pushed it on Ukraine, it was something Ukraine would find beneficial and could just as easily have demanded of the US. But as we’ll soon explain, there was another layer to this message. From the Kremlin website:

You know, on the face of it, the US-Ukraine meeting in Saudi Arabia may look like the Ukrainian side made this decision under pressure from the United States. In fact, I am absolutely convinced that the Ukrainian side should have asked the Americans for this decision most emphatically, in view of the situation evolving on the ground, as has just been mentioned here.

And what is the current situation on the ground? Many of you have surely noticed that yesterday I visited the Kursk Region and listened to reports from the Chief of the General Staff, the Commander of the North group of forces and his deputy on the situation in the border area, first of all in the Kursk Region, or rather, in the incursion zone in the Kursk Region.

What is happening there? The situation there is completely under our control, and the grouping that invaded our territory has been isolated. It is completely isolated and under complete fire control. The control of Ukrainian troops inside this incursion zone has been lost. At the initial stages, just a week or two ago, Ukrainian servicemen tried to get out of there in small groups. Now it is impossible. They are trying to get out in very small groups of two or three men because everything is under our complete fire control.

The military equipment has been completely abandoned and it is impossible to remove it; it will remain there, one hundred percent. If this area is physically blocked in the next few days, then no one will be able to leave. There will only be two options: surrender or die. I think in these conditions it would be good for the Ukrainian side to achieve a ceasefire for at least 30 days. We are also in favour of it, but there are nuances. What are they?

First, what will we do about the incursion section in the Kursk Region? What would that mean if we cease fire for 30 days? Does this mean that everyone who is in there will just walk out without a fight? Do we have to let them go after they committed numerous heinous crimes against civilians? Or will the Ukrainian leadership issue a command for them to lay down their arms and just surrender? How will this happen? It is not clear.

How will other issues along the entire contact line be solved? It is almost 2,000 kilometres long. As you know, Russian troops are advancing in almost all areas of combat contact. Conditions are also very favourable there for us to block rather large units there.

So, how would these 30 days be used? For forced mobilisation to continue in Ukraine? For more weapons to be supplied there? For retraining the mobilised units? Or would none of this be done?

If so, how will issues related to control and verification be addressed? How can we guarantee and receive guarantees that nothing like this would happen? How will control procedures be organised? I hope everyone understands the complexity of all this at the level of common sense. These are all serious issues.

Who will order to cease fire? What is the price of these orders? Just imagine: almost 2,000 km. Who will be able to determine who violated the potential ceasefire agreement over a distance of 2,000 km and where exactly? Who will be held responsible for violating the ceasefire? All these issues must be meticulously worked upon by both sides. The idea itself is right, and, of course, we support it.

However, there are issues that must be discussed. I think we must talk them over with our American colleagues and partners, perhaps have a telephone conversation with President Trump and discuss them with him. However, the idea to put an end to this conflict by peaceful means gets our full support.

TL;DR version: “Well, we can of course talk about this idea, but for this to make any sense for us, many many operational details have to be negotiated and implemented. By the time that got done, we could be in Paris.”

Note also that Putin makes clear no one has yet set up a call with Trump.

If you want to have some yucks, the Institute for the Study of War is in a huff because Russia is not on board with the “intentions and goals” of the US-Ukraine proposal, which is to pull a fast one on Russia.

Image
Image

But a bit more seriously, one of Putin’s words had an inference that seems lost on most outside Russia. From Larry Johnson’s e-mail, Regarding a Ceasefire, Putin says it is About “nuance”:

According to Andrei [Martyanov], Putin’s use of the phrase, there are nuances, is a cultural term connected to a crass joke. I asked Perplexity.AI to explain:

A soldier named Garry asks the general for the definition of “nuance.” The general tells him to take down his pants and bend over. The general proceeds to insert himself into the soldier’s anus and then explains that what the soldier feels compared to what the general feels is nuance.

The humor in this joke lies in the subtle wordplay and implied actions. In Russian, the phrase “There is a nuance” (“Есть нюанс”) can also be understood as a command, “Eat a nuance!” when pronounced quickly. The general’s response to Garry’s question about the definition of nuance is to demonstrate it rather than explain it verbally, creating a humorous and somewhat crude situation.

This joke is an example of how Russian humor often relies on wordplay, double entendres, and sometimes crude or sexual innuendos. It’s important to note that understanding such jokes often requires not just knowledge of the Russian language, but also familiarity with Russian cultural context and humor styles.

Got it? Putin was politely telling Trump’s team of negotiators that they could shove the proposed ceasefire deal in Riyadh up their ass. Russia is not going to be bullied or threatened.

A search on Twitter (Putin + nuance) has turned up no tweets making note of Putin’s coded but very pointed dismissal of the US-Ukraine offer.3

This was unlikely to have been one of Putin’s goals, but his choice of a Russian usage will test the Trump Administration in at least two ways: do they even have any Russian specialists left who will get the dirty joke? Remember Scott Ritter has repeatedly inveighed against State Department Russian experts for having over the past 20 years been majors in what he called “Putin hating studies”. Mind you, that fixation does not necessarily mean that they are not otherwise culturally clued in. But Rex Tillerson did a bit of a purge at State under Trump 1.0, and it’s not clear if there is anyone that Russia-savvy on this team.

And even if they were, and someone told Rubio and Waltz what the use of “nuance” implied, would they tell Trump? It’s hard to imagine, with Trump being an obsessively dominant sort, that he would not respond to Putin’s second layer of meaning, even if only by making a joke. So Trump not manifesting knowledge of Putin’s layered message in their next interaction would point to Trump’s team either being very ignorant or choosing to withhold information.

So despite the appearance of things changing, not much has changed. The US is supporting Ukraine even though it cannot change the trajectory of the war. Russia will keep destroying Ukraine’s army until something breaks. My guess is only then (as in conditions at that point) will it settle on its end game.

_____

1 As our Aurelien points out, that sort of cessation of hostilities is not called a ceasefire in diplo-speak. A ceasefire is understood to be temporary, and the Russians have said that’s not in their interest. The Russians are looking for an armistice.

2 One could be charitable and see the Russians as trying to adapt to American norms. New Yorkers regard it as polite not to waste someone’s time. So perhaps trying to truncate Witkoff’s discussions was a courtesy of sorts.

3 On “How could no one in the West be mentioning this if true?” There were many times when I was working with the Japanese that there were many conditions and news stories in Japan, that ought to have been seen as being of keen commercial interest to US businessmen, that were completely unreported. Admittedly, this sort of coarse jibe seems out of character for Putin, which may be why he made it, to let Russians know the depth of his objection. And it isn’t as if coarse language is never used in diplomatic contexts. Gonzalo Lira reported in one of his YouTubes that “Fuck the EU” Victoria Nuland visited the Kremlin in October 2021. There she told various officials, including IIRC Lavrov, in the most sailor-like Russian, that the US was going to clear the Donbass, and if Russia tried to stop that, the US would respond in a ferocious manner.

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Winter 2025: Azov is Coming

At least 13 stories the media ignored about Ukraine’s most powerful neo-Nazis
Moss Robeson
Mar 13, 2025

Substack is putting my new account under review before letting me transfer my “Bandera Lobby” mailing list, so for now I’m republishing my first “Azov Lobby” post here. If you decide to share it, please promote the other version, not this one, which I’m going to delete.

Presented in chronological order:

‘The best concert in the history of the modern Black Metal scene’

Nazi pagan fighter addresses the UN Security Council

Azov in Davos for the World Economic Forum

British delegation meets with Azov battalion commander

Nazi propaganda wins award at Sundance Film Festival

Nazi propaganda brings Nazi fighters to Capitol Hill

Trudeau and Prince Harry embrace neo-Nazi veterans at ‘Invictus Games’

Standing ovation for neo-Nazi in Danish parliament

Former CIA director visits Azovite ‘Killhouse’

Three years of ‘deNazification’

Azov Brigade chief of staff resigns after telling Elon Musk to ‘fuck off’

Russian Nazis march in Berlin, and Azov recruits in Germany

British politicians welcome Azovites back to Parliament


‘The best concert in the history of the modern [National Socialist] Black Metal scene’ — ‘I have only one question for the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine: WTF?’

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Yuriy “Doom” Pavlyshyn at “YuleNight”

DECEMBER 26 — Just as winter began, Russian Nazis spearheaded a National Socialist Black Metal (NSBM) concert in a Kyiv bomb shelter. The organizers of “YuleNight” are associated with the Azov movement in Ukraine. The historian Marta Havryshko said that “about 700 passionate people” attended the event, “who couldn’t help but perform Hitler’s salute during the festival.”

‘DAY OF THE DEAD’ — It was around this time that Andriy Biletsky, the neo-Nazi leader of the Azov movement and commander of its 3rd Assault Brigade in the Ukrainian Ground Forces, led the Azovites’ annual “Day of the Dead” ceremony. During that event, organized by the ideological service of Biletsky’s unit, his commanders burned a Viking warship, as if to send their fallen fighters to Valhalla. In the coming days, Biletsky voiced approval for a ceasefire.

‘ARMY.INFORM’ — In January, the information agency of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry interviewed Alexei Levkin, the leader of two bands, “M8L8TH” (Hitler’s Hammer) and “Advlfcult” (Adolf Cult), that performed at “YuleNight.” Levkin is a pagan Azov ideologist from the “Russian Volunteer Corps” (RDK, Russkiy Dobrovol'cheskiy Korpus), which is subordinated to Ukraine’s military intelligence service, and in turn, the Ministry of Defense. “I have only one question,” Marta Havryshko commented. “WTF?” Levkin, on the other hand, taunted Havryshko, “the audience was delighted! an evening of international music that unites listeners regardless of nationality and borders!”

‘NATION EUROPA’ — Andriy Malkov from the 3rd Assault Brigade called “YuleNight” the “event of the year,” and gave thanks to RDK commander Denis “White Rex” Kapustin and M8L8TH bass player Yuriy “Doom” Pavlyshyn for organizing the show. “Doom,” a medic in the 3rd Assault Brigade, declared it “the best concert in the history of the modern Black Metal scene.” Malkov, Kapustin, Pavlyshyn, and Levkin appear to have been the main people behind last summer’s “Nation Europa” conference in Lviv, which aimed to launch a continental neo-Nazi network. Both of their events raise questions about the approval of Ukrainian military intelligence.

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Nazi pagan fighter addresses the UN Security Council

JANUARY 13 — Valery Horishny, a senior sergeant and instructor of the 12th Special Forces “Azov” Brigade in the National Guard of Ukraine (NGU), landed in the United States with an O-type visa “for people with extraordinary ability or achievement in certain fields.” At the invitation of the British government, Horishny gave a speech at an informal meeting of the United Nations Security Council in New York. Later he traveled to Washington, listening to “My Native Land” by M8L8TH. “OUR ELEPHANT,” Alexei Levkin also taunted me online. Once again, we find fingerprints of Ukrainian military intelligence.

REMEMBER ‘YARILO’? — I wrote about this Nazi pagan Azov fighter once before, after he shared a stage with a Nobel Peace Prize winner in Ukraine last year. Valery Horishny’s call-sign “Yarilo” refers to an obscure Slavic god. Until September 2024, he spent over two years in Russian captivity after the NGU Azov Regiment surrendered in Mariupol. Kyiv’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War—chaired by the Ukrainian military spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, probably the most important patron of the Azov movement—organized this trip to the United States.

KUDOS FOR TEACHING NAZIS ENGLISH — Barbara Woodward, the Permanent Representative of the UK to the United Nations, introduced Horishny as “a former prisoner of war who was part of the defense of Mariupol in 2022, and before that, he was the manager of an educational youth and national project, and also an English teacher.” Here the British UN ambassador (perhaps unwittingly) made a reference to Horishny’s work for the National Corps, the political party of the Azov movement. The Azovite “School of Young Leaders” saw Horishny collaborate with Alexei Levkin, the Russian Azov ideologist, who is a leader of notorious NSBM bands and the Hitler-worshipping group, “Wotanjugend.”

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Horishny teaching English at the Azovite “Young Leaders’ School” (2018), which used the same symbol as Alexei Levkin’s hardcore neo-Nazi organization. Last year, Levkin presented Horishny with a banner from the Leaders’ School.

NAZI PAGAN POETRY — Horishny, a self-described “adherent of the Native Faith,” has a poetry account on Instagram, which used to be public, but now is private. I archived a few poems from 2021, including one in English dedicated to Hitler: “You, my Love, I admire, And I’ll serve you, my Sire.”

The Hitler-worshipping kind of neo-pagans associated with Wotanjugend and the Azov movement are obsessed with the alleged Aryan roots of Ukrainians. In a poem about war, Horishny said, “The trenches are a lot of work! The work of passionate people. The descendants of the Aryans work with the strength of formidable insurgents.” In another poem, he wrote, “Our ancestors — Aryan-Scythians — were philosophers, warriors, teachers,” and, “We are the children of Great Scythia, we pray to the Knife!”

NEXT STOP: WASHINGTON — From New York, Horishny flew to DC, where the BBC and Voice of America interviewed him. “Yarilo” took at least one meeting on Capitol Hill with Congressman Joe Wilson (R-SC), who chairs the U.S. Helsinki Commission. He also visited the State Department and the Netherlands’ embassy with Maksym Butkevych, a famous Ukrainian human rights activist who already received an “Anne Frank Special Recognition Award” from the Dutch embassy in Washington.

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Horishny wrote this poem, and a friend of M8L8TH made the Hitler painting

Azov in Davos for the World Economic Forum…again
JANUARY 21 — The day after Donald Trump returned to the White House, a pair of Azovites spoke at “Ukraine House Davos,” an annual side event at the World Economic Forum. Daryna Smolnikova, a medic in the NGU’s 12th Special Forces Azov Brigade, appeared alongside Vadym Mazevych, an officer from the Azov movement’s 3rd Assault Brigade in the Ukrainian army. These Azovites literally rubbed shoulders with George Soros’ heir at the event.

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Vadym Mazevych and Daryna Smolnikova

SO MUCH FOR ‘DEPOLITICIZATION’ — Smolnikova, a.k.a. “Rina Reznik,” is the head of the “Care Service” of the NGU Azov Brigade. “If the Western countries are preparing for a big war, they at least need to learn how to do it … and we have the experience now to share,” she said in Davos. Samolnikova used to serve in the Hospitallers Medical Battalion, which is affiliated with the far-right “Ukrainian Volunteer Army,” a Right Sector splinter group, but now she’s dating Azov Brigade deputy commander Illia Samoilenko, better known as “Gandalf.” Years before he visited Israel and attended the 2023 World Economic Forum, becoming the poster boy of his unit’s fake “depoliticization,” Samoilenko once told a Czech journalist, “I don’t believe in any holocaust, it’s just a story.”

(Much, much more. Recommended.)

https://banderalobby.substack.com/p/win ... -is-coming
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The Idiot's Guide to War
Patrick Armstrong

March 13, 2025 , 1:08 pm .

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April 21, 2022: A column of armored vehicles of pro-Russian forces in the port city of Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast, Russian Federation (Photo: Chingis Kondarov/Reuters)

There's an old adage about warfare that says amateurs talk tactics, but professionals talk logistics. To this I'd add that beginners talk weapons—remember the Saint Javelin , the M777 , the Leopard tanks , the F-16 ? We've seen plenty of game-changing weapons come and go , haven't we?

Image

Logistics is the really difficult part of planning: it's making sure the fighting side of the effort has all the things it needs, where it needs them, and when it needs them. The end comes when your man kicks in the door of the enemy commander's office. Everything else—aircraft carriers, tank armies, artillery, air fleets, medical support—planning must serve to get him there. This is the picture . If the infantryman in the vanguard has neither rations nor ammunition, he is useless and will soon be out of the game. Getting this—and many other things—to him is extraordinarily difficult, and many popular accounts of wars leave this somewhat dull aspect of the business of war out of the story.

But war is a combination of many things, all of which must work together. All are necessary, but none are sufficient. In my opinion, it's the most complicated thing we humans do—and, sadly, history shows, it's our favorite outdoor sport. War without purpose—grand strategy and strategy—is nothing more than killing people and destroying things. Soldiers without training are dead men walking. Tactics without logistical support are nothing more than Brownian motion. And so on. Everything has to be planned, coordinated, and carried out with the obstacle of what Clausewitz called "friction"—in the face of an enemy that is doing everything possible to disrupt and counter you. Once everything is planned, you have to start over on the fly because " no plan survives contact with the enemy ."

What's happening in Ukraine is an industrial war that is consuming huge amounts of ammunition and weapons, causing tremendous destruction and hundreds of thousands of casualties. NATO is used to flying over a target without air defense and dropping bombs, or small groups of infantry calling in aircraft or artillery when someone fires at them. And, in the end, NATO loses the war anyway and goes home. Alex Vershinin understood this well at the beginning in June 2022 in The Return of Industrial Warfare :

"The winner in a protracted war between two nearly equal powers is still determined by which side has the stronger industrial base. A country must have the capacity to manufacture massive quantities of munitions or have other manufacturing industries that can be quickly converted to munitions production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either."

And it should be clear that it could be much more: Moscow calls it a "special military operation," and that's why Kiev looks this way ; if it were a full-scale war, Kiev would look this way.



What does NATO tell us? [We need] more money . It must reach 2% of GDP. That's not enough; we need 3%. Maybe 5% . Money.

NATO's rhetoric and bluster—remember how the Russians must "get shavings out of the refrigerators" and "Russian industry is in ruins" ; " Russia is running out of weapons "?—have been replaced by a certain recognition of reality. In January, the current Secretary General (GenSek) of NATO told us: " If you look at what Russia is producing now in three months, it is what all of NATO is producing from Los Angeles to Ankara in a whole year ." Russia is four to one against the entire enemy coalition.

It's about production, not money. Wars aren't fought by firing wads of dollars at the enemy. One of the original mistakes of Western intelligence was measuring Russia's economy using the ruble-dollar exchange rate—although NATO's GenSek still believes this: " Russia is no bigger than the Netherlands and Belgium combined as an economy ." In 2017, I wrote "Russia's Exchange Rate on the Downswing," where I concluded that Russia had a "complete service economy." And, despite what GenSek might imagine, the World Bank tells us that "the Netherlands and Belgium combined," with their "crumbling industry," has become the fourth-largest economy in the world.

There's nothing money can do to remedy the four-to-one ratio, except with a lot of investment in production over a long period of time. Thanks to the offshoring of manufacturing, the Western industrial base has to be built largely from scratch. Is that possible? If you think about it, an apprentice machinist on an assembly line fifty years ago was learning from a master machinist who had been taught by a previous master, and so on until the mid-eighteenth century, when industrial production was invented. Of course, each of these series advanced the technique, but it's still a chain that can be traced back, machinist by machinist, all the way back. If that master-apprentice-master sequence is broken, if the master has retired or died without leaving any apprentices, how long will it take to recover it?

Placing a pallet of embossed paper on the floor of an empty building and expecting it to turn into a pallet of artillery shells is magical thinking. We know this from history. By the winter of 1914, it was clear that artillery ammunition consumption was far exceeding anyone's expectations, and Britain, a manufacturing giant at the time, began stocking up. Even so, it took a year and a half to manufacture the enormous quantity of artillery shells for the Somme offensive, and about a quarter of them failed to explode because the fuses weren't properly made. How far is the West from meeting real demand?

Meanwhile, the European Union's economy isn't doing so well , and with a stagnant or shrinking economy, maintaining the same amount of money means the percentage will have to grow. So the expected 3-4-5-whatever increase in GDP that everyone is asking for may turn out to be only enough to maintain the existing insufficient amount. As the Red Queen told Alice: " Now, here, you see, you need to run as fast as you can to stay in the same place. If you want to get anywhere else, you must run at least twice as fast! "

The limits of " last summer's Ukraine ", NATO and the European Union are visible, don't you think?

Beginners talk about weapons.

Amateurs talk about tactics.

Professionals talk about logistics.

Idiots talk about money.


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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Mar 15, 2025 6:04 pm

(3/15/25continued...)

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
🎖🎖🎖The Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the attempted invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk region as of March 15, 2025.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to defeat the formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region.

Units of the North group of forces liberated the settlements of Zaoleshenka and Rubanshchina during offensive actions .

In addition, the formations of the mechanized, two airborne assault brigades, two territorial defense brigades and an assault regiment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Gogolevka, Gornal, Guevo and Oleshnya. Strikes by operational-tactical , army aviation and artillery fire hit enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Zapselye and Loknya, as well as Alexandria, Basovka, Belovody, Veselovka, Vodolaghy, Zhuravka, Miropolye, Mogritsa, Novaya Sich, Novenkoye, Obody, Sadki, Yunakovka and Yablonovka in Sumy Oblast. - Over the past 24 hours , the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 220 servicemen, a tank , an infantry fighting vehicle, an armored combat vehicle, four cars, two artillery pieces, two mortars, as well as a UAV control center and an ammunition depot have been destroyed. In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost: - more than 67,630 servicemen, - 393 tanks, - 317 infantry fighting vehicles, - 283 armored personnel carriers, - 2,199 armored combat vehicles, - 2,437 vehicles, - 555 artillery pieces, - 52 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including 13 HIMARS and seven MLRS made in the USA, - 26 anti-aircraft missile system launchers, a self-propelled anti-aircraft gun, ten transport and loading vehicles, - 120 electronic warfare stations, - 16 counter-battery radars, ten air defense radars, - 56 units of engineering and other equipment, including 23 engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit, five bridgelayers, an engineering reconnaissance vehicle, as well as 15 armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

The operation to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces formations continues.

***

Colonelcassad
⚡ The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation as of 15 March 2025.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.

In the Kharkov direction, units of the North group of forces inflicted losses on formations of two mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Volchansk and Liptsy in the Kharkov region.

- The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 45 servicemen, four vehicles, an artillery piece and a radio-electronic reconnaissance station.

Units of the West group of forces improved their tactical situation. Defeat was inflicted on the manpower and equipment of the motorized infantry, assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and two territorial defence brigades in the areas of the settlements of Druzhelyubovka, Novosergeevka, Cherneshchina, Proletarskoye in the Kharkov region, Grekovka in the Luhansk People's Republic and Redkodub in the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The enemy's losses amounted to more than 255 servicemen, four combat armored vehicles, including a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle and an Austrian-made Pinzgauer Vector armored vehicle, two pickups, four field artillery pieces and three ammunition depots.

Units of the "Southern" group of forces occupied more advantageous lines and positions. They inflicted losses on formations of two mechanized, motorized infantry and airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Serebryanka, Verolyubovka, Konstantinovka and Artema of the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 260 servicemen, a US-made M113 armored personnel carrier, five vehicles, a field artillery piece and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple launch rocket system launcher. Two electronic warfare stations and an ammunition depot were destroyed.

Units of the Center group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense, defeated the formations of two mechanized, a Jaeger brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a marine brigade and a national guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Filiya in the Dnipropetrovsk region, Petrovskoye, Udachnoye, Dimitrov, Shevchenko, Krasnoarmeysk and Uspenovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The enemy lost up to 465 servicemen, four armored combat vehicles, including a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, eight vehicles and three artillery pieces.

Units of the East group of forces improved their position along the forward edge, defeated the formations of two mechanized, a motorized infantry brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and three territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Iskra, Zeleny Gai, Konstantinopol and Fedorovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The enemy's losses amounted to more than 160 servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, six cars and two field artillery pieces.

Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted damage on the manpower and equipment of three coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Olgivka, Nikolskoye and Sadovoe in the Kherson region.

- Up to 80 servicemen and three vehicles were destroyed.

Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted damage on military facilities of the airfield infrastructure, workshops for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles, ammunition depots and logistics, energy facilities that ensure the operation of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, as well as concentrations of manpower and equipment of the armed formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and foreign mercenaries in 162 districts.

The Russian Aerospace Forces shot down a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force in an air battle.

Air defense systems shot down seven JDAM guided aerial bombs and three US-made HIMARS multiple launch rockets, as well as 170 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles, 141 of which were outside the special military operation zone.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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On the situation in Kursk region. 03/15/2025
March 15, 13:19

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On the situation in Kursk region. 03/15/2025

Active demining has begun in the liberated areas of the Kursk region. There is a lot of work to do. Over several months of fighting, a large number of mines and unexploded ordnance have accumulated there.

Assistance to residents liberated from occupation is also ongoing, as well as the systematization and investigation of the revealed facts of war crimes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Nothing will be forgotten. Like the cases of Chechen militants who are caught even after 20+ years, these cases will have no statute of limitations.

On the liberation of the remaining territories. The enemy controls approximately 35-40 km in the Kursk region, including 2.5 villages (Guyevo has not yet been cleared). Work in this direction is underway. The enemy is angry and shelling Sudzha, which it lost so ineptly, although it had been preparing it for defense for several months before.

Zelensky's regime has already written off those surrounded in the Kursk region. He does not want to give the order to surrender, since this would be a direct admission of military defeat. If the US does not put pressure on Zelensky, the fate of the remaining Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region is unenviable. The Russian Federation's position is simple - either surrender or death. Both options will suit us.

Online broadcast of military operations in Ukraine as usual here https://t.me/boris_rozhin (if interested, subscribe)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9725885.html

We ask for mercy
March 15, 13:08

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1. Russia - all who do not surrender in the Kursk region will be destroyed.
2. USA - we ask Russia to spare the encircled Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region.
3. Ukraine - all goals have been achieved, there is no encirclement.

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The outcome for those who did not manage to escape will be somewhat predictable.

P.S. Pictures by Mikhail Kuznetsov.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9725571.html

Google Translator

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Putin’s response to the ceasefire proposal – full transcript of remarks
March 14, 2025


YouTube link to analysis by The Duran.

RT, 3/13/25

Before I assess how I view Ukraine’s readiness for a ceasefire, I would first like to begin by thanking the President of the United States, Mr. Trump, for paying so much attention to resolving the conflict in Ukraine.

We all have enough issues to deal with. But many heads of state, the president of the People’s Republic of China, the Prime Minister of India, the presidents of Brazil and South African Republic are spending a lot of time dealing with this issue. We are thankful to all of them, because this is aimed at achieving a noble mission, a mission to stop hostilities and the loss of human lives.

Secondly, we agree with the proposals to stop hostilities. But our position is that this ceasefire should lead to a long-term peace and eliminate the initial causes of this crisis.

Now, about Ukraine’s readiness to cease hostilities. On the surface it may look like a decision made by Ukraine under US pressure. In reality, I am absolutely convinced that the Ukrainian side should have insisted on this (ceasefire) from the Americans based on how the situation (on the front line) is unfolding, the realities on the ground.

And how is it unfolding? I’m sure many of you know that yesterday I was in Kursk Region and listened to the reports of the head of the General Staff, the commander of the group of forces ‘North’ and his deputy about the situation at the border, specifically in the incursion area of Kursk Region.

What is going on there? The situation there is completely under our control, and the group of forces that invaded our territory is completely isolated and under our complete fire control.

Command over Ukrainian troops in this zone is lost. And if in the first stages, literally a week or two ago, Ukrainian servicemen tried to get out of there in large groups, now it is impossible. They are trying to get out of there in very small groups, two or three people, because everything is under our full fire control. The equipment is completely abandoned. It is impossible to evacuate it. It will remain there. This is already guaranteed.

And if in the coming days there will be a physical blockade, then no one will be able to leave at all. There will be only two ways. To surrender or die.

And in these conditions, I think it would be very good for the Ukrainian side to achieve a truce for at least 30 days.

And we are for it. But there are nuances. What are they? First, what are we going to do with this incursion force in Kursk Region?

If we stop fighting for 30 days, what does it mean? That everyone who is there will leave without a fight? We should let them go after they committed mass crimes against civilians? Or will the Ukrainian leadership order them to lay down their arms. Simply surrender. How will this work? It is not clear.

How will other issues be resolved on all the lines of contact? This is almost 2,000 kilometers.

As you know, Russian troops are advancing almost along the entire front. And there are ongoing military operations to surround rather large groups of enemy forces.

These 30 days — how will they be used? To continue forced mobilization in Ukraine? To receive more arms supplies? To train newly mobilized units? Or will none of this happen?

How will the issues of control and verification be resolved? How can we be guaranteed that nothing like this will happen? How will the control be organized?

I hope that everyone understands this at the level of common sense. These are all serious issues.

Who will give orders to stop hostilities? And what is the price of these orders? Can you imagine? Almost 2,000 kilometers. Who will determine where and who broke the potential ceasefire? Who will be blamed?

These are all questions that demand a thorough examination from both sides.

Therefore, the idea itself is the right one, and we certainly support it. But there are questions that we have to discuss. I think we need to work with our American partners. Maybe I will speak to President Trump. But we support the idea of ending this conflict with peaceful means.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/03/put ... f-remarks/

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For Kiev, Russian Culture is a Priority Target

Lucas Leiroz

March 15, 2025

The Ukrainian neo-Nazi regime attempts in every way possible to destroy the spiritual and cultural symbols of the Russian civilization.

During my most recent trip as a correspondent to Donbass, I witnessed a phenomenon that, although often neglected in Western narratives about the conflict, proves to be crucial for understanding the dynamics of the ongoing war: the systematic attack on Russian culture. On the battlefields, where military confrontations and human losses are the main focus of attention, there is another front of combat aimed at erasing the cultural heritage of a region deeply linked —and that has always belonged — to Russia.

On my visit, I went to the music school in Volnovakha, on the outskirts of Donetsk, a historic cultural center that symbolizes the psychological and spiritual resistance of the local population. The school, like many other cultural centers in the region, became a strategic target for the Ukrainian forces. In 2022, with the start of Russian actions, Kiev’s response was brutal: a campaign of destruction and ethnic cleansing in the suburbs of Donetsk, which severely affected the villages of Volnovakha.

However, the Kiev forces chose not to completely destroy the music school, as they did with many of the neighboring houses. Instead, they turned the site into an improvised military base. For the teachers and students at the school, this action was seen not only as a physical attack but also as a spiritual one: a form of violence against their very identity and local culture.

The term “spiritual murder” perfectly summarizes the testimonies I heard from the teachers at the school. This expression accurately captures the sense of helplessness and pain faced by those who saw their lives marked by war, not only through human losses but also through the destruction of everything that represented their history and culture. The presence of Ukrainian soldiers on the school premises became a daily reminder of the suffering imposed on the population, with the fighters sheltering there while continuing their mission to kill and destroy the relatives and neighbors of the teachers and students.

However, the liberation of the region by Russian forces in 2022 brought a reversal. The Volnovakha music school was restored and revitalized. When I visited the site, the school was more active than ever, with even a group of young musicians from Volnovakha performing that very day at a festival in Siberia, showing the cultural importance of the region to the rest of Russia. The teachers I spoke with told me how music had become a fundamental tool to help the youth overcome the traumas of war, especially those who lost parents or relatives in the constant Ukrainian attacks. In this context, music became a pillar of resistance, a way to keep the spirit of the region alive amid the chaos.

This is not a reality exclusive to Volnovakha. In the center of Donetsk, I spoke with the members of the musical group Zveroboi, a local band that travels across Russia performing patriotic and traditional songs. What the musicians shared with me was emotional: just like the young students at the music school, they also used music as a way to deal with trauma and, more importantly, to strengthen their ties to their homeland. Music became an expression of resistance, patriotism, and a way to mobilize Russian society against external aggression.

During my conversation with the members of Zveroboi, I asked them about their dream of performing at a “Victory Parade” once the conflict ends. The answer was clear: yes, they would be there, but they did not know whether it would be in Kiev or (once again) Berlin, considering the possible expansion of the war into Europe due to EU intervention in Ukraine. Therefore, music transformed into a symbol of unity and mobilization, and also a reminder that, although war destroys many things, the culture of a people has an incredible capacity to resist.

The attack on Russian culture in Donbass is not just about the destruction of material heritage but an attempt to erase the identity of an entire population. What I see, however, is that cultural resistance, fueled by these young musicians and teachers, remains strong. Every note played and every song sung is an act of resistance. Music not only heals wounds but also keeps the flame of Russian identity and culture alive in a region devastated by war.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... ty-target/

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NATO Sec.-Gen. On Ukraine Accession

Took him a while ...

NATO chief Mark Rutte says Ukraine's membership path is 'irreversible' - UPI / Yahoo, Oct 3 2024

"Ukraine is closer to NATO than ever before," he said. "And will continue on this path until you become a member of our Alliance. I very much look forward to that day."

Ukraine's accession to NATO is no longer under consideration, Rutte confirmed - news-pravda, Mar 14, 2025

Ukraine's accession to NATO is no longer under consideration, Rutte confirmed
When asked whether Trump was really removing the issue of Kyiv joining the alliance from the negotiating table, the NATO Secretary General answered “yes.”


Posted by b on March 15, 2025 at 14:52 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/03/n ... l#comments
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Mar 16, 2025 12:42 pm

Kursk, history and conspiracy theory
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/16/2025

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The telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump last month and the immediate hysteria it provoked among the European establishment , fearful of being left out of the decision-making circle regarding a war they considered existential three years ago and which they are trying to keep active until Ukraine can dictate the terms of its resolution, prompted all sorts of analogies, generally crude and without the slightest validity, about the current situation and the betrayal of Munich in 1938, where Western powers sacrificed Czechoslovakia to fascism in search of a peace that was never to be achieved. Dialogue with the Russian Federation was seen as the first step toward accepting a resolution to the war imposed from Moscow. The reaction was immediate, especially because European countries saw, for the first time since Charles de Gaulle, that the United States might not come to the rescue of its European allies in the—more than unlikely—event of an attack.

The ReArm Europe plan, the massive mobilization of funds and loans to increase defense spending, citing the urgency of a war that began three years ago, is the main conclusion, though not the only one. On Friday, the media reported on Kaja Kallas's proposal of up to €40 billion to "strengthen the delivery of military equipment to Ukraine." The objective seeks to maintain the level of EU military assistance to Ukraine by creating a voluntary fund so that EU and non-EU countries could join the investment, thus avoiding potential vetoes from potentially dissident countries such as Hungary or Slovakia. The debate over increasing military contributions to Ukraine comes not only at a time when the flow of US materiel and intelligence to Ukraine has resumed, but also at a time when there is talk of a ceasefire leading to negotiations to find a diplomatic solution and end a conflict that has claimed hundreds of thousands of victims, devastated significant parts of Ukrainian and Russian territories, and triggered a political escalation that threatens to create a European powder keg in which even peace does not mean the end of the threat of clashes between continental powers.

The European Union, comfortable with the idea of ​​being able to continue wearing down Russia, does not share the rush to achieve a definitive end to the war, something that Washington and Moscow apparently share and that has sparked a new wave of conspiracy theories about the relationship between Trump and Putin and the collaboration between the two countries. After the experience of Russiagate , and the accusations of Russian interference in favor of Donald Trump in the 2016 elections, came the story of Agent Trump , recruited by the KGB during his trip to the Soviet Union in 1987, to whom the new version of this narrative even gives a name, Krasnov. Despite the fact that his personal, business, and political career displays a way of acting full of lurches and inconsistencies, this discourse aims to make us believe that Donald Trump, the agent recruited by the Soviet Union, has remained loyal to Moscow, a story that is hardly credible and that has sometimes been qualified by claiming that Russia had kompromat , compromising material that it would publish in the event of treason. Another highly questionable story, considering that Trump has survived all kinds of scandals without major problems.

Continuing this trend of failing to differentiate Russia from the Soviet Union and exploiting a relationship that is presented as one of subservience of the businessman who would eventually become president of the world's leading power to a country so powerful it was unable to prevent its dissolution, Simon Tisdall wrote this week in The Guardian that "Russia is escalating the war to exploit Trump's surrender," adding that "Trump may not win a Nobel Prize, but he has certainly earned the Order of Lenin," the Soviet Union's highest commemoration.

With arguments to explain the current moment, such as the memory of Munich or the Soviet Union's twisted use of it to justify its actions at this time, it was only logical that analogies appealing to the Molotov-Ribentrop Pact would soon arrive to demonize any attempt at diplomatic intervention to end the greatest war experienced on the European continent since World War II, the end of which has been evident since the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023. It was foreseeable that there would not be a complete victory for either side, so negotiations would be necessary, which would foreseeably lead to a de facto partition of Ukraine along the front lines. The refusal to negotiate shown by Kiev, Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and London was solely the hope of obtaining a different result by doing the same thing over and over again. However, the US intervention to impose a negotiation process has been perceived by European countries and the Democratic wing of the US establishment as a betrayal, something that has been repeated these days when explaining how the Ukrainian front in Kursk, Kiev's main victory of the last year, has almost completely collapsed.

“Last week, I suggested that Ukraine’s losses at Kursk could be part of a secret agreement between the United States and Russia, something similar to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact,” Ukrainian professor Roman Sheremeta wrote on Friday in a message reposted by Anne Applebaum, a multi-award-winning writer with a strong anti-Russian obsession, star columnist for The Atlantic , and whose partner is Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski. “Now, the new evidence mounts even more than the questions,” she concluded. Sheremeta made this comment while sharing an article by Robin Horsfall, a former member of the British Air Force’s special forces. Horsfall and Sheremeta’s thesis, described by journalist Davide Maria De Luca—currently in Sumi, Ukraine—as “a very clear example of conspiracy theories among experts,” is that of a Trump-Putin collusion to defeat the Ukrainian offensive at Kursk.

“In February 2025, there was a buildup of Russian forces to an estimated 50,000 at Kursk with orders to recapture Russian lands. A counteroffensive was planned. Russia increased its forces at Kursk. Russia needed Ukraine to be blindsided. On February 28, 2025, Trump fabricated a public disagreement with President Zelensky. Between March 3 and 5, using the disagreement as justification, Trump cut off supplies and intelligence to Ukraine. On March 6, Russian forces attacked and recaptured large parts of Kursk, forcing Ukraine to make a tactical retreat,” Horsfall claims, without explaining that the offensive had already begun before Trump blindsided Ukraine for just a few days. Still, and even admitting that “the weakness of this information is the chronology,” the author sees a “smoking gun,” definitive evidence that corroborates another more than questionable story. “On February 27, 2025, before Trump's announcement, a Russian general in Kursk revealed to one of his colonels that his offensive was waiting for Ukrainian surveillance to fall. The colonel revealed this to his wife, his wife told her best friend, who told my source in Eastern Europe,” he alleges, offering a chain of messages that cannot be corroborated or considered serious evidence.

However, that narrative, a narrative that only considers the facts that favor their theory, is sufficient for Applebaum and Sheremeta, who argue that “Putin didn’t want to freeze the war without recapturing lost Russian territory. For negotiations to begin , Trump had to help Russia [deliberately lowercase in the narrative] recapture Kursk. Just as Russia launched its major counteroffensive, Trump cut off US weapons and intelligence. The result? Massive casualties.” The narrative goes on to note that “Ukrainian soldiers also reported something alarming: Russian forces on Kursk suddenly had extremely precise coordinates of Ukrainian positions, troops, logistics points, and ammunition depots. Coincidence? Or did Trump help Russia before the negotiations?” it adds, without even considering the possibility that Russia’s months of work—mobilizing resources, preparing for the offensive, introducing surveillance and attack drones, and putting pressure on supply points—could yield results. In the minds of some experts, it is impossible for Russia to be capable of solving its problems, designing offensives, or, of course, defeating Ukrainian troops.

Two days before Sheremeta's publication, Michael Kofman, one of the leading Western experts on this war, wrote that "these issues have been discussed for quite some time. The main problem was the Russian Federation's interdiction of the few available supply routes, with a main highway leading to Sudzha. As the Kursk area became increasingly compressed, it became increasingly untenable." Kofman added that "although it may have temporarily aggravated the situation, the most recent Russian advances in Kursk occurred well before the suspension of US military and intelligence assistance. The problem lay in the geometry of the battlefield, logistics, and the constant attacks by [troops from] the People's Republic of Korea." Kofman quoted a post by Rob Lee, another of the Western experts on this war, who wrote on March 2 that, according to DeepState , the main "problem in the Kursk region is the enemy's fire control over all logistics of the Ukrainian defense forces. Since January, Russian troops have increased their ability to monitor our movements, but we have not taken adequate measures on our part to eliminate this problem. By February, the problem had reached its peak, and the most serious complications arose after the loss of the village of Sverdlikovo, whose recapture attempts were also not carried out in the best-planned manner.” Lee began reporting on the rapid Russian advances in the Kursk region on February 28. Even then, it was clear that Russia had seized the initiative, attacking supply lines and making it very difficult for Ukraine to maintain its positions regardless of whether it had American weapons, which could no longer reach Suya.

Even Ukrainian troops deny the conspiracy theory that US aid to Russia in recapturing Kursk. After emphasizing the significance of the loss of control over the supply routes, Artyom Karyakin insists that "of course, much bigger problems began with the fall of Sverdlikovo, but it's very difficult to stop the assaults when all our basic FPV drone crews in this area have retreated to the Sumi region, given that FPV is the key weapon in this war on both sides of the front. In a compromised logistics situation, it became almost impossible to deliver drones and warheads. Not to mention the infantry, which no one pulled out from anywhere and didn't relieve for a month. It's no wonder that the Russians, who launched large forces (including Korean infantry) in different directions of a dubious salient with only a barely functioning road for logistics, were successful in the assaults."

All sources deny that thousands of soldiers are besieged, primarily because, as Karyakin states, "fortunately, we didn't begin withdrawing a large part of our forces yesterday." The Ukrainian defeat at Kursk was a matter of time and had been brewing for several weeks. Highlighting the chaos, the deployment of reinforcements, and the strong intelligence presence, Italian journalist De Luca highlighted on Friday the preparations for the defense of Sumi, where preemptive evacuations are taking place in border villages. However, a Russian assault in that direction is not foreseeable, in part because the mere threat of such a possibility is enough to force Ukraine to station troops there, far from the Donbass front, the Russian Federation's main objective. kyiv, for its part, is trying to hold on to the part of Kursk still under its control for a similar reason: to prevent Moscow from transferring the bulk of that force to areas such as Pokrovsk or Chasov Yar. The southernmost part of the Kursk salient, the town of Guevo, is conducive to this. Logistics operations have not been disrupted, and this could contribute to Ukraine delaying the complete liberation of Kursk Oblast by a few days.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/16/kursk ... spiracion/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
What a good day.

In the Stepnogorsk direction, in the area of ​​the village of Kamenskoye, one of the leaders of the Pravosek in the Lviv region, Mikhail Alekseyev, was liquidated

. Alekseyev was a completely reckless Nazi in the style of Karas or Sternenko.

Russian drone operators did their job.
81.7Kviews
Boris Rozhin

***

Colonelcassad
Khinshtein on the situation in the Kursk region regarding the evacuation of civilians:

We continue to work on the evacuation of our civilians. In total, 371 people have been evacuated from liberated settlements since March 12, including 14 children.

Today alone, 70 people have been evacuated.

Of the 371 people, 220 of our residents have been placed in temporary accommodation facilities on the territory of the region, where they are receiving all the necessary assistance and support. The rest have been taken in by relatives and friends.

The work on the evacuation of civilians is ongoing without interruption - everyone is being examined by doctors and psychologists, people are being given humanitarian packages, food, and legal advice.


***

Kursk direction: liberation of Gogolevka and expansion of the control zone

In the Kursk direction, Russian troops continue to develop offensive actions, expanding the operational control zone and destroying the defensive positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The main efforts are focused on strengthening the achieved positions and displacing the enemy from key areas of the front.

Units of the Russian Armed Forces liberated the settlement of Gogolevka , expanding the control zone in the western direction. This success made it possible to stabilize the situation in this section of the front and create conditions for a further offensive.

After consolidating in Zaoleshenka, Russian units developed an offensive in the western direction and entered the settlement of Rubanshchina. This advance made it possible to approach the key enemy lines and create a threat to its communications.

To the south, active hostilities are taking place in the area of ​​the settlement of Kurilovka , where Russian troops continue to put pressure on the enemy's defensive positions, seeking to expand the control zone and strengthen their positions on new lines.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to hold defensive positions around the Sudzha-Yunakovka highway, which remains an important logistics route for the Ukrainian group. However, under the fire impact of the Russian Armed Forces, the enemy's positions in this section of the front have been significantly weakened, and the likelihood of further advancement of Russian troops remains high.

Thus, Russian units continue their systematic advance, consistently destroying the defensive formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and expanding the zone of operational control. Successes in this direction create favorable conditions for reaching new strategic lines and controlling the enemy's key communications.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Joe Lauria: Ukraine Timeline Tells the Tale
March 14, 2025 natyliesb
By Joe Lauria, Consortium News, 2/25/25

The way to prevent the Ukraine war from being understood is to suppress its history.

A cartoon version has the conflict begining on Feb. 24, 2022 when Vladimir Putin woke up that morning and decided to invade Ukraine.

There was no other cause, according to this version, other than unprovoked, Russian aggression against an innocent country.

Please use this short, historical guide to share with people who still flip through the funny pages trying to figure out what’s going on in Ukraine.

The mainstream account is like opening a novel in the middle of the book to read a random chapter as though it’s the beginning of the story.

Thirty years from now historians will write about the context of the Ukraine war: the coup, the attack on Donbass, NATO expansion, rejection of the Minsk Accords and Russian treaty proposals — without being called Putin puppets.

It will be the same way historians write of the Versailles Treaty as a cause of Nazism and WWII, without being called Nazi-sympathizers.

Providing context is taboo while the war continues in Ukraine, as it would have been during WWII. Context is paramount in journalism.

But journalists have to get with the program of war propaganda while a war goes on. Journalists are clearly not afforded these same liberties as historians. Long after the war, historians are free to sift through the facts.

THE UKRAINE TIMELINE

World War II— Ukrainian national fascists, led by Stepan Bandera, at first allied with the German Nazis, massacre more than a hundred thousands Jews and Poles.

1950s to 1990 – C.I.A. brought Ukrainian fascists to the U.S. and worked with them to undermine the Soviet Union in Ukraine, running sabotage and propaganda operations. Ukrainian fascist leader Mykola Lebed was taken to New York where he worked with the C.I.A. through at least the 1960s and was still useful to the C.I.A. until 1991, the year of Ukraine’s independence. The evidence is in a U.S. government report starting from page 82. Ukraine has thus been a staging ground for the U.S. to weaken and threaten Moscow for nearly 80 years.

November 1990: A year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Charter of Paris for a New Europe (also known as the Paris Charter) is adopted by the U.S., Europe and the Soviet Union. The charter is based on the Helsinki Accords and is updated in the 1999 Charter for European Security. These documents are the foundation of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. The OSCE charter says no country or bloc can preserve its own security at another country’s expense.

Dec. 25, 1991: Soviet Union collapses. Wall Street and Washington carpetbaggers move in during ensuing decade to asset-strip the country of formerly state-owned properties, enrich themselves, help give rise to oligarchs, and impoverish the Russian, Ukrainian and other former Soviet peoples.

1990s: U.S. reneges on promise to last Soviet leader Gorbachev not to expand NATO to Eastern Europe in exchange for a unified Germany. George Kennan, the leading U.S. government expert on the U.S.S.R., opposes expansion. Sen. Joe Biden, who supports NATO enlargement, predicts Russia will react hostilely to it.


1997: Zbigniew Brzezinski, former U.S. national security adviser, in his 1997 book, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, writes:

]“Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state.”

New Year’s Eve 1999: After eight years of U.S. and Wall Street dominance, Vladimir Putin becomes president of Russia. Bill Clinton rebuffs him in 2000 when he asks to join NATO.

Putin begins closing the door on Western interlopers, restoring Russian sovereignty, ultimately angering Washington and Wall Street. This process does not occur in Ukraine, which remains subject to Western exploitation and impoverishment of Ukrainian people.

Feb. 10, 2007: Putin gives his Munich Security Conference speech in which he condemns U.S. aggressive unilateralism, including its illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq and its NATO expansion eastward.

He said: “We have the right to ask: against whom is this [NATO] expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact? Where are those declarations today? No one even remembers them.”



Putin speaks three years after the Baltic States, former Soviet republics bordering on Russia, joined the Western Alliance. The West humiliates Putin and Russia by ignoring its legitimate concerns. A year after his speech, NATO says Ukraine and Georgia will become members. Four other former Warsaw Pact states join in 2009.

2004-5: Orange Revolution. Election results are overturned giving the presidency in a run-off to U.S.-aligned Viktor Yuschenko over Viktor Yanukovich. Yuschenko makes fascist leader Bandera a “hero of Ukraine.”

April 3, 2008: At a NATO conference in Bucharest, a summit declaration “welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO”. Russia harshly objects. William Burns, then U.S. ambassador to Russia, and presently C.I.A. director, warns in a cable to Washington, revealed by WikiLeaks, that,

“Foreign Minister Lavrov and other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition, stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine, remains ‘an emotional and neuralgic’ issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene. … Lavrov stressed that Russia had to view continued eastward expansion of NATO, particularly to Ukraine and Georgia, as a potential military threat.”

A crisis in Georgia erupts four months later leading to a brief war with Russia, which the European Union blames on provocation from Georgia.

November 2009: Russia seeks new security arrangement in Europe. Moscow releases a draft of a proposal for a new European security architecture that the Kremlin says should replace outdated institutions such as NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

The text, posted on the Kremlin’s website on Nov. 29, comes more than a year after President Dmitry Medvedev first formally raised the issue. Speaking in Berlin in June 2008, Medvedev said the new pact was necessary to finally update Cold War-era arrangements.

“I’m convinced that Europe’s problems won’t be solved until its unity is established, an organic wholeness of all its integral parts, including Russia,” Medvedev said.

2010: Viktor Yanukovich is elected president of Ukraine in a free and fair election, according to the OSCE.

2013: Yanukovich chooses an economic package from Russia rather than an association agreement with the EU. This threatens Western exploiters in Ukraine and Ukrainian comprador political leaders and oligarchs.

February 2014: Yanukovich is overthrown in a violent, U.S.-backed coup (presaged by the Nuland-Pyatt intercept), with Ukrainian fascist groups, like Right Sector, playing a lead role. Ukrainian fascists parade through cities in torch-lit parades with portraits of Bandera.


Protesters clash with police in Kiev, Ukraine, February 2014. (Wikimedia Commons)

March 16, 2014: In a rejection of the coup and the unconstitutional installation of an anti-Russian government in Kiev, Crimeans vote by 97 percent to join Russia in a referendum with 89 percent turn out. The Wagner private military organization is created to support Crimea. Virtually no shots are fired and no one was killed in what Western media wrongly portrays as a “Russian invasion of Crimea.”

April 12, 2014: Coup government in Kiev launches war against anti-coup, pro-democracy separatists in Donbass. Openly neo-Nazi Azov Battalion plays a key role in the fighting for Kiev. Wagner forces arrive to support Donbass militias. U.S. again exaggerates this as a Russian “invasion” of Ukraine. “You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pre-text,” says U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who voted as a senator in favor of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 on a completely trumped up pre-text.

May 2, 2014: Dozens of ethnic Russian protestors are burnt alive in a building in Odessa by neo-Nazi thugs. Eight days later, Luhansk and Donetsk declare independence and vote to leave Ukraine.

Sept. 5, 2014: First Minsk agreement is signed in Minsk, Belarus by Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE, and the leaders of the breakaway Donbass republics, with mediation by Germany and France in a Normandy Format. It fails to resolve the conflict.

Feb. 12, 2015: Minsk II is signed in Belarus, which would end the fighting and grant the republics autonomy while they remain part of Ukraine. The accord was unanimously endorsed by the U.N. Security Council on Feb. 15. In December 2022 former German Chancellor Angela Merkel admits West never had intention of pushing for Minsk implementation and essentially used it as a ruse to give time for NATO to arm and train the Ukraine armed forces.

2016: The hoax known as Russiagate grips the Democratic Party and its allied media in the United States, in which it is falsely alleged that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election to get Donald Trump elected. The phony scandal serves to further demonize Russia in the U.S. and raise tensions between the nuclear-armed powers, conditioning the public for war against Russia.

May 12, 2016: U.S. activates missile system in Romania, angering Russia. U.S. claims it is purely defensive, but Moscow says the system could also be used offensively and would cut the time to deliver a strike on the Russian capital to within 10 to 12 minutes.

June 6, 2016: Symbolically on the anniversary of the Normandy invasion, NATO launches aggressive exercises against Russia. It begins war games with 31,000 troops near Russia’s borders, the largest exercise in Eastern Europe since the Cold War ended. For the first time in 75 years, German troops retrace the steps of the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union across Poland.

German Foreign Minister Frank Walter-Steinmeier objects. “What we shouldn’t do now is inflame the situation further through saber-rattling and warmongering,” Steinmeier stunningly tells Bild am Sontag newspaper. “Whoever believes that a symbolic tank parade on the alliance’s eastern border will bring security is mistaken.”

Instead Steinmeier calls for dialogue with Moscow. “We are well-advised to not create pretexts to renew an old confrontation,” he warns, adding it would be “fatal to search only for military solutions and a policy of deterrence.”

December 2021: Russia offers draft treaty proposals to the United States and NATO proposing a new security architecture in Europe, reviving the failed Russian attempt to do so in 2009. The treaties propose the removal of the Romanian missile system and the withdrawal of NATO troop deployments from Eastern Europe. Russia says there will be a “technical-military” response if there are not serious negotiations on the treaties. The U.S. and NATO reject them essentially out of hand.

February 2022: Russia begins its military intervention into Donbass in the still ongoing Ukrainian civil war after first recognizing the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Before the intervention, OSCE maps show a significant uptick of shelling from Ukraine into the separatist republics, where more than 10,000 people have been killed since 2014.


Ukrainian troops in the Donbass region, March 2015. (OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons)

March-April 2022: Russia and Ukraine agree on a framework agreement that would end the war, including Ukraine pledging not to join NATO. The U.S. and U.K. object. Prime Minister Boris Johnson flies to Kiev to tell Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop negotiating with Russia. The war continues with Russia seizing much of the Donbass.

March 26, 2022: Biden admits in a speech in Warsaw that the U.S. is seeking through its proxy war against Russia to overthrow the Putin government. Earlier in March he overruled his secretarry of state on establishing a no-fly zone against Russian aircraft in Ukraine. Biden opposed the no-fly zone, he said at the time, because “that’s called World War III, okay? Let’s get it straight here, guys. We will not fight the third world war in Ukraine.”

September 2022: Donbass republics vote to join Russian Federation, as well as two other regions: Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

May 2023: Ukraine begins counter-offensive to try to take back territory controlled by Russia. As seen in leaked documents earlier in the year, U.S. intelligence concludes the offensive will fail before it begins.

June 2023: A 36-hour rebellion by the Wagner group fails, when its leader Yevegny Prigoshzin takes a deal to go into exile in Belarus. The Wagner private army, which was funded and armed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, is absorbed into the Russian army. The Ukrainian offensive ends in failure at the end of November.

September 2024: Biden deferred to the realists in the Pentagon to oppose long-range British Storm Shadow missiles from being fired by Ukraine deep into Russia out of fear it would also lead to a direct NATO-Russia military confrontation with all that that entails.

Putin warned at the time that because British soldiers on the ground in Ukraine would actually launch the British missiles into Russia with U.S. geostrategic support, it “will mean that NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.”

November 2024: After he was driven from the race and his party lost the White House, a lame duck Biden suddenly switched gears, allowing not only British, but also U.S. long-range ATACMS missiles to be fired into Russia. It’s not clear that the White House ever informed the Pentagon in advance in a move that risked the very World War III that Biden had previously sought to avoid.

February 2025: The first direct contact between senior leadership of the United States and Russia in more than three takes place, with a phone call between the countries’ presidents, and a meeting of foreign ministers in Saudi Arabia. They agree to begin negotiations to end the war.

This timeline clearly shows an aggressive Western intent towards Russia, and how the tragedy could have been avoided if NATO would not allow Ukraine to join; if the Minsk accords had been implemented; and if the U.S. and NATO negotiated a new security arrangement in Europe, taking Russian security concerns into account.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/03/joe ... -the-tale/

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Putin peels off the masks of the ceasefire kabuki

Pepe Escobar

March 14, 2025

Putin will never sacrifice Russia’s “indivisibility of security” demands posed to Washington in December 2021 – and met with a no-response response.

The “ceasefire” announced with trademark bombast by Team Trump 2.0 should be seen as a tawdry kabuki inside a cheap matryoshka.

As we peel off the successive masks, the last one standing inside the matryoshka is a woke transvestite tiny dancer: a Minsk 3 in drag.

Now cue to a “ceasefire” redux: President Putin in uniform only for the second time since the start of the SMO, dead serious, visiting the frontline in Kursk.

Finally, cue to the actual peel off operation: Putin’s press conference after his meeting with Lukashenko in Moscow.

Ceasefire? Of course. We support it. And then, methodically, diplomatically, the Russian President pulled a Caravaggio, and went all-out chiaroscuro on every geopolitical and military detail of the American gambit. A consumate artful deconstruction.

End result: the ball is now back in Donald Trump’s court. Incidentally the leader of the revamping-in-progress Empire of Chaos who does not (italics mine) have the cards.

The art of diplomatic nuance

That’s how diplomacy at the highest level works – something out of reach of American bumpkins of the Rubio variety.

Putin was gracious enough to thank “the President of the United States, Mr. Trump, for paying so much attention to resolving the conflict.”

After all the Americans also seem to be involved in “achieving a noble mission, a mission to stop hostilities and the loss of human lives.”

Then he went for the kill: “This ceasefire should lead to a long-term peace and eliminate the initial causes of this crisis.”

As in all Russian key imperatives – widely known since at least June 2024 – will have to be satisfied. After all, it’s Russia that’s winning the war in the battlefield, not the U.S., the – already fragmented – NATO, and much less Ukraine.

Putin was adamant on the ceasefire: “We are for it.”

But there are nuances; once again, it’s called diplomacy. Starting with verification – arguably the crux of Putin’s reasoning:

“These 30 days — how will they be used? To continue forced mobilization in Ukraine? To receive more arms supplies? To train newly mobilized units? Or will none of this happen?

How will the issues of control and verification be resolved? How can we be guaranteed that nothing like this will happen? How will the control be organized?

I hope that everyone understands this at the level of common sense. These are all serious issues.”

No: the collective EUrocracy, mired in demented Russophobia, does not understand “common sense”.

Once again Putin deferred, diplomatically, to the “need to work with our American partners. Maybe I will speak to President Trump.”

So there will be another phone call soon.

Trump, for his part, perennially floating on the clouds of bombast, already applied “leverage” on the negotiations – even before Putin’s detailed answer to the ceasefire kabuki.

He ramped up sanctions on Russia’s oil, gas and banking, allowing the waiver on Russian oil sales to expire this week.

That means in practice that the EUro-vassals and other assorted “allies” cannot buy Russian oil anymore without evading U.S. sanctions.

Even before that elements from Kiev criminal gang were begging for more sanctions on Russia as part of a “peace” plan. Trump obviously agreed by bypassing basic diplomacy once again. Only those with an IQ of less than zero can possibly believe that Moscow will support a ceasefire/’peace process” where it is sanctioned for attempting to end a war that it is actually winning in the battlefield – from Donbass to Kursk.

Sanctions will have to be at the heart of the possible U.S.-Russia negotiations. At least some of those thousands will have to go right from the start. Same for the $300 billion or so in Russian assets “seized” – as in stolen –, most of it parked in Brussels.

I annex, therefore I am

Putin’s Caravaggio ceasefire painting reveals that he has absolutely no interest in antagonizing the notoriously volcanic Trump, or to put in peril the possibility of a U.S.-Russia détente in the making.

As for Kiev and the EUro-chihuahuas, they remain on the menu, and not on the table.

Predictably, Western MSM, as a wave of toxic detritus hitting a pristine shore, is spinning that Putin said “Nyet” to the ceasefire gambit as a prelude to scotching any negotiations about it.

These specimens would not understand the meaning of “diplomacy” even if it was a comet piercing the skies.

As for the spin on the Brits “helping” the Americans and the Ukrainians to concoct the ceasefire gambit, that does not even qualify as a crappy Monty Python sketch.

The Brit ruling classes, MI6, their media and think tanks, simply abhor any negotiations. They are at direct, frontal war with Russia, and their plan A – no plan B – remains the same: inflict a “strategic defeat” on Moscow, as the SVR knows inside out.

The heart of the matter is the Black Sea. Vladimir Karasev’s analysis, as explained to TASS, is spot on: “The British have already entered the city of Odessa, which they view as a key location. Their special services are heavily involved there. The British do not conceal their desire to establish a naval base in Odessa.”

Odessa is part of the extensive menu of Ukraine’s resources already, in thesis, handed over to the Brits under the shady – and completely illegal – 100-year agreement signed between Starmer and the sweaty sweatshirt in Kiev.

According to the dodgy deal and its made in the shade footnotes, Zelensky already gave away to the Brits all sorts of control over minerals, nuclear power plants, underground gas storage facilities, key ports (including Odessa), and hydroelectric power plants.

On the ongoing minerals/rare earth saga in 404 – or what will be left of it – the Brits are in vicious, direct competition with the Americans. The CIA is obviously in the know. This whole thing will turn very ugly in no time.

A serious discussion running across informed circles in Moscow is that Putin by all means will never sacrifice Russia’s “indivisibility of security” demands posed to Washington in December 2021 – and met with a no-response response. NATO of course will never agree to it. The final decision will have to come from POTU.S..

And that brings us to the ultimately pathetic role of NATO, graphically illustrated by POTU.S., in the Oval Office, gleefully expanding on his drive to annex both Canada and Greenland – both part of NATO – right in front of the sorry Dutch patsy Tutti Frutti o-Rutti, NATO’s Secretary General.

That amorphous slab of stale Dutch gouda cheese not only did not emit a peep about the annexations: he was gleaming like a baby in front of Trump.

That was NATO stripped bare: His Master’s Voice rules the way he wants it, and whatever he decides, even the “security” and territorial integrity of member states may be in peril. So go back to playing in your sandbox. Onwards to the next Putin-Trump phone call.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... re-kabuki/

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Kursk direction: demining and evacuation of the population from Sudzha and the surrounding area
March 15, 2025
Rybar

Image

In the Sudzhansky district, after the liberation of Sudzha, Russian troops continue to advance toward the border with Sumy Oblast . The suburbs of the district center have completely come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, but the Russian army still has a lot of work to do before peaceful life can fully return here.

More about the combat situation in the Sudzhi area
Russian troops, represented by the Veterans ODShBR and other related units, have completely driven the enemy out of Goncharovka and Zaoleshenka . The latter is home to the infamous Pyaterochka , which was disfigured by Ukrainian militants, and near which our fighters were photographed for the first time today . At the moment, all the outskirts of the settlement are under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

Ukrainian formations still maintain their presence in several villages of the Sudzhansky district . The Russian Defense Ministry briefing stated that Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in Gogolevka , Oleshnya, Guevo and Gornali were defeated .

At the same time, the situation in the Ruban region remains shrouded in the “fog of war” – no footage from the village or information from the ground confirming its liberation has yet been received.

In Sumy Oblast, against the backdrop of Russian troops' successes, Ukrainian authorities announced the evacuation of the population from Yunakivska and Miropolska communities . In the latter, an airstrike destroyed the only bridge linking Miropolska with Sumy .

More about the humanitarian situation in the Sudzha region:
In Sudzha and surrounding settlements, the evacuation of civilians continues; over the past few days, 275 civilians have been taken deep into the Kursk region, mostly elderly people who were unable to leave the city in time. Humanitarian aid is being delivered to the remaining city residents by volunteers, and targeted visits to residential buildings are also underway.

The city center was heavily damaged. While the House of Culture remained relatively undamaged, the building of the agricultural technical school nearby was completely destroyed. The same applies to school No. 2 in the city center and many other social facilities.

Last night, Ukrainian forces launched a missile attack on the Sudzhansky Regional Museum on Karl Liebknecht Street , razing the building to the ground. As a result of the attack, a museum employee who had survived the occupation was killed, and two others were wounded. Other buildings and houses on the street were also heavily damaged.

The extent of damage to buildings in Zaoleshenka and Goncharovka has yet to be assessed, as there have been virtually no personnel from our side at the moment. Russian fighters are conducting a cleanup and searching for members of Ukrainian formations hiding in basements.

At the same time, units of the engineering troops of the RF Armed Forces began the phased demining of the liberated areas of the Kursk region. In connection with the decision of the operational headquarters of the Kursk region, entry for civilians into 122 settlements and adjacent lands located in six border areas of the region is temporarily closed until the completion of the work.

In Sudzha itself , during the flight, the enemy abandoned many units of small arms, ammunition and military equipment, which are now being studied by trophy teams. There are also cases of members of Ukrainian formations who did not manage to escape disguising themselves as civilians . In this way, they are trying to avoid filtration measures.

https://rybar.ru/kurskoe-napravlenie-ra ... estnostej/

Americans and British are flying near Crimea: are we preparing for new strikes?
March 15, 2025
Rybar

Image

Yesterday, the Black Sea waters were once again quite interesting: the American-British alliance conducted a complex reconnaissance operation off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula .

What planes flew at sea?
First, the U-2S high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft flew in the air south of Crimea , circling in the central part of the Black Sea. And a little later, the British RC-135 aircraft joined it.

And by the end of March 14, an American reconnaissance aircraft RC-135 flew into the same area where the U-2S was during the day. It operated in the area 147 km south of Crimea - at approximately this distance it patrolled the Russian coast to the North-Eastern Military District.

But more important is the time of day it was over the Black Sea. It was flying closer to midnight , which is not typical for American reconnaissance aircraft. As a rule, since the beginning of the Second World War, only UAVs in the US Air Force fly at night.

Given the time of its operation, it can be assumed that the American aircraft was monitoring the nature of the work of Russian units in the south of Russia at night.

And if we consider their activity as a whole, then the onboard equipment installed on the aircraft allows them to cover quite large territories not only in Crimea, but also in new territories and in the Krasnodar region.

https://rybar.ru/amerikanczy-i-britancz ... ym-udaram/

The Black Sea is restless, but what about Russia’s northwestern borders?
March 15, 2025
Rybar

Image

In addition to the activity in the Black Sea region , NATO intelligence activities on Russia's northwestern borders should also be mentioned. NATO aviation activity there is also higher than ever.

On March 13-14, seven reconnaissance aircraft were observed along the borders with Belarus, as well as Russian regions in the northwest and north of Russia, making ten flights in different directions.

Where did NATO reconnaissance aircraft fly?
▪️A Swedish Gulfstream IV operated along the Belarusian border
▪️Two US CL650 aircraft flew three times near Kaliningrad
and the northern regions of Belarus. ▪️A NATO E-3A and a Saab 340 of the Swedish Air Force (twice) operated near the Pskov and Leningrad regions ▪️One Gulfstream IV and one American U-2S were noted
near Karelia and St. Petersburg
. ▪️A Norwegian P-8A and an American U-2S flew along the Kola Peninsula .

In addition, on March 13, a Find, Fix, Track and Target (F2T2) training exercise was conducted over the Baltics , in which 18 NATO fighters participated , practicing breaking through the air defense of the Russian and Belarusian Armed Forces.

In fact, over these two days, the North Atlantic Alliance received up-to-date information about, at a minimum, our air defense systems under the pretext of conducting a flight exercise. Although it also pursued the goal of a conditional, but still defeat of our positions.

We do not rule out that in the coming days the Ukrainian side will again resort to massive attacks on Russian territories, including in the northwest and south.

https://rybar.ru/v-chyornom-more-nespok ... ah-rossii/

Google Translator

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NATO-Russia Ukrainian War Ceasefire: To Be Or Not To Be?
by Gordonhahn
March 14, 2025

On March 13th Russian President Vladimir Putin stated Moscow is open to a ceasefire leading to peace treaty talks, generally speaking. However, he stressed tghat there are “nuances” that need to be addressed before any ceasefire agreement could be concluded. The ‘nuances’ were really counteroffers made for practical reasons but also having the effect of returning the ball to the US-Ukrainian court, paraphrasing US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s assertion after the Ukrainians’ agreement to a ceasefire that ‘the ball is now in Moscow’s court.’

Highlighting what is or was missing from the American proposal to his knowledge at the time he was speaking (before meeting with US envoy Steven Witkoff, Putin said the issues in need of resolution are: (1) the remaining Ukrainian troops in Kursk, Russia; (2) Ukraine’s military mobilization and training of those mobilized; (3) arms sales to Ukraine; and (4) verification of any ceasefire covering the long ‘line of contact’ or frontlines needed to be resolved (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76450). The first issue is being resolved by the Russian army which has re-taken Sudzha and probably will have killed, captured, or pushed all Ukrainian troops out of Kursk Oblast within a week or so. Putin visited Chief of the General Staff Valerii Gerasimov at the Northern Group of Forces headquarters in Kursk on March 12th, as the world waited his response to the news of the Ukrainians’ agreement with the U.S, and made it clear he wanted the remainder of Ukrainian forces in Kursk killed, captured, or pushed back over the Ukrainian border. This may indicate his willingness to get to a ceasefire agreement along with his desire to defeat Zelenskiy’s Kursk gambit. Putin wore a military fatigues, perhaps in an effort to troll Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy, as his Kursk gambit falls apart (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76446).

Putin’s public statements probably reflect what were communicated to U.S. negotiator Steven Witkoff more as requirements or conditions before any Russian agreement to a ceasefire. Pressing Kiev to halt mobilization and training, puts Zelenskiy in a difficult position, and Washington and or Kiev will likely respond that if Kiev is required to halt these activities, then Moscow must halt them or something analagous. This will highlight the coercive, violent aspect of what Ukrainians call ‘Ze-mobilization’—‘Ze’ referring to Zelenskiy. Russia recruits volunteers and periodic drafts, noit a general mobilization, no less one involving coercion to force those subject to the draft to enter training and go to the front. Putin may hope that Washington will support this and in order to coerce Kiev to agree withhold weapons supplies again.

At the same time, the U.S. weapons to be supplied to Kiev are numbered. The Ameerican-Ukrainian statement on the ceaefire agreement declares that the U.S. “will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine” (www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-un ... in-jeddah/). ButTrump’s national security advisor Michael Waltz confirmed this, adding that “the current PDA (presidential drawdown authority)… will proceed to the Ukrainians” (https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-o ... in-jeddah/). This remark relates to the Biden administration’s last use of PDA directed to Ukraine in Septeber 2024: “On September 26, 2024, the Department notified Congress of the intent to direct the drawdown of up to approximately $5.55 billion in defense articles and services from DoD stocks for military assistance to Ukraine under Presidential Drawdown Authority” (www.state.gov/bureau-of-political-milit ... or-ukraine). Waltz’s emphasis on the ‘current PDA’ authority is perhaps a tacit allusion to the fact that the Trump has not and may not use PDA to support in Ukraine in future, perhaps depending on Kiev’s willingess to negotiate, despite the inherent contradiction in demanding peace talks while supplying weapons. For Ukraine, this is a contradiction with an opportunity: to drag out talks while it rearms its forces along the contact line.

Not surprisingly then, Russian officials have repeatedly stated they will not accept a ceasefire agreement and will continue fighting until a full-fledged peace agreement is reached. Their previous rejections of any ceasefire were precisely based on Russians’ suspicion that any pause in the fighting will be used to halt Russia’s mounting offensives, rearm Ukraine, and then resume the war with Kiev’s forces in a more robust state. This will be an extremely sensitive issue for Putin, who, along with most Russians, believe the West and Ukraine have repeatedly taken Moscow for a ride from the broken promise not to expand NATO east, the Orange and Maidan revolts (with the latter’s neofascist-led snipers’ false flag operation and violent overthrow of the government in violation of the famous 20 February 2014 agreement on a gradual transition of power in Kiev), the apparently feigned Minsk 1 and 2 process, and much more. Putin may find his political position weakened in comparison with more hardline elements if seen as having fallen again for an another Western deception. This means he cannot be fooled again and risk accepting a ceasefire agreement that would allow continued arms supplies to Ukraine.

This brings us to the duration of the ceasefire – one month renewable upon both parties’ agreement. It is possible that an initial ceasefire month may allow the mobilization and the current PDF’s arms supplies to wind down. Putin will then refuse to approve the ceasefire’s renewal for a second month, if mobilization and/or arms supplies persist. Kiev may have conditioned its agreement to a ceasefire on the continuation of U.S. arms supplies, which the U.S. may have temporarily agreed to but plans to run out the PDF and then not renew. By that time Kiev’s forces will be in an even more dire position, and Kiev may be more ready for the ceasefire and future peace talks. The Trump team seems to be moving carefully, pocketing small compromises by Kiev and perhahps soon by Moscow in order to draw them both deeper into the process, which if abandoned can be blamed on the abandoning party. Zelenskiy is perhaps more susceptible to this pressure than Putin, though Zelenskiy seems to have stayed away from the Riyadh talks perhaps in hope he separate himself from any blame if politically necessary.

Putin understands negotiating the details and mechanisms for implementing the ceasefire likely will take months. Meanwhile Russian troops can complete the process of expelling Ukrainian troops from the areas which the latter hold in at least two (Luhansk and Donetsk) of the four Donbass regions claimed by Russia and extending areas it holds in other Ukrainian regions. While these and Crimea are settled issues militarily and in terms of sovereignty—they are Russian; Kiev will not win them back for decades, a century, if ever. The situation with regard to the other two Russia-annexed but still not fully taken regions – Kherson and Zaporozhe’ – is more fluid. Russian forces control less than half of each’s territory and will have an extraordinarly difficult time seizing their capitol cities of the same name. Thus, the negotiations on territories, which, accordoing to Trump was under discussion at Riyadh with the Ukrainians, is likely to center around a possible trade with Moscow withdrawing its troops from areas it occupies in regions outside the four regions it claims for the remainder of the territory of the claimed regions still not held by Russian troops most likely in Kherson and Zaporozhe. All of this will be incredibly difficult to navigate politically, particularly for Zelenskiy and Ukraine. Moreover, it is unlikely that Kiev has more than half a year before the collapse begins of one or more of the following: the entire front, army, oligarch-neofascist Maidan regime, and Ukrainian state.

Now we get to the most disconcering fact hanging over the ceasefire endeavor. It was hinted at by Putin’s raising the vexing issue of verifying and monitoring the ceasefire. Ukraine’s neofascists will break repeatedly the ceasefire and organize other provocations to undermine the ceasefire and peace treaty processes. This was true throughout the Minsk ceasefire and peace process in 2014-2022. Neofascists boasted about their violations, and one such violator, a Right Sector member later killed in the war, stated they hoped to eat Russian children’s bones, and Zelenskiy awarded them with state medals (https://gordonhahn.com/2021/12/03/zelen ... d-ukraine/). Russians also broke the ceasefire on occasion, but the Ukrainians did so routinely. Indeed, it was the Ukrainians who drove the escalation in violations on the eve of Putin’s February 2022 decision to invade. Such Ukrainian neofascists have many successors anvious to carry on the violence at all costs. A leading Azov commander has already signaled such elements’ readiness to break any ceasefire and belief that the West is betraying Ukraine (https://x.com/HavryshkoMarta/status/1900124005228548573). Moreover, Putin will be loathe to return to a Minsk-like ceasefire, with an OSCE monitoring mission observing and recording violations, since the OSCE has taken the NATO-Ukrainian side in the war and cannot be seen by Moscow as an objective observer.

For his part, Zelenskiy responded to Putin’s tentative agreement with scorn, repeating “red lines” that Ukraine will not renounce its pursuit of NATO membership, despite NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte, saying the alliance was no longer considering Ukraine’s accession to the alliance, and that Kiev will not accept limits on the size of its army (www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAh-ZNCvciE). Hope springs eternal, especially in spring; Zelenskiy did not include territorial compromises among his red lines, suggesting he is ready to consider giving up territory to Russia de facto if not de jure.

To conclude, Kremlin spokesman Dmitrii Peskov summed up the talks between Putin and Witkoff on Thursday night, saying that the American envoy conveyd “additional information” on the U.S. talks with Ukrainians, most prominently Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak leading to the Riyadh agreement and that Putin gave “information” for Witkoff to deliver to Trump. He said there would soon be a Trump-Putin phone call and expressed “cautious optimism” about coming to a ceasefire agreement. U.S. National Security Chief Waltz said the same (https://strana.today/news/481687-est-os ... remle.html). Trump said on that talks in Moscow were going well (www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAh-ZNCvciE). Perhaps, but it will be a long, rocky road before any agreement is achieved, and failure could lead to an explosive doubling down on the disastrous NATO-Russia Ukrainian War and the destructive chaos of our new multipolar world.

https://gordonhahn.com/2025/03/14/nato- ... not-to-be/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Mar 17, 2025 12:08 pm

Demands in the form of an ultimatum
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/17/2025

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“I am pleased to inform you that General Keith Kellogg has been appointed Special Envoy for Ukraine,” Donald Trump wrote on Saturday on his personal social media platform, the method he typically uses to announce his appointments, praise, or threats. The message wasn't actually an announcement of an appointment, but rather a nuance. Although there have been rumors in recent days that Kellogg had been removed from Trump's negotiating team, the general was until now considered the Special Envoy for Russia and Ukraine, the equivalent of Kurt Volker in Trump's first term. The same week that the Western media reported on the alleged Russian veto on meeting with Kellogg—something that was previously known, as the former general was seen in Moscow as excessively close to the military-industrial complex—the former military officer was confirmed, albeit with a limited definition of the position. In reality, the change in the title of Kellogg's work reflects a reality that had already become clear: the fact that the United States, the master of the negotiations as the party with the capacity to offer both incentives and pressure to both sides of the war, has opted for a separate diplomacy in its relations with Moscow and kyiv.

So far, all contacts, from phone calls to presidents, to face-to-face meetings, to telephone conversations between foreign ministers, have been strictly bilateral in nature. This approach, which caused tremendous nervousness among the European and Ukrainian establishments when they were excluded from the Riyadh meeting between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov, where issues between the two countries were discussed, thus providing no justification for the presence of Kiev or Brussels, will continue until Washington considers that the framework of the agreement has already been imposed and Russia and Ukraine have to resolve issues that are not of interest to the United States, such as prisoner exchanges or the situation of the civilian population under the control of the other party (the rights of the Ukrainian population in Russian territories and of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine). Until then, all indications are that there will be two directions in US diplomacy: one led by Kellogg, arguably the most pro-Ukrainian person on Trump's team, who will pressure and incentivize Ukraine, and the other led by Steve Witkoff, who will do the same with the Russian Federation.

In addition to confirming the appointment of the controversial Kellogg, a figure more important than his position suggests, since his plan is being implemented to pressure the parties to accept negotiations, Donald Trump confirmed the favorable treatment Steve Witkoff had received in Moscow (contrary to rumors that the Kremlin had made him wait nine hours) and announced that there would be new information on Monday regarding the ceasefire, one of the two central axes of the Ukrainian agenda currently. "I addressed the meeting of European leaders and stated that the path to peace must begin without conditions," wrote Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday night, adding that "if Russia does not want it, strong pressure must be exerted until they do. Moscow understands only one language." Kiev has repeated so many times that Russia only understands the language of force that it is unnecessary to specify which language the Ukrainian president is referring to when he demands more pressure on Moscow to accept the ceasefire unconditionally. Using language very similar to the ultimatum, with public humiliation and the subsequent interruption of arms and intelligence supplies, Ukraine accepted a ceasefire it did not want in Saudi Arabia—the one proposed by Ukraine was much more modest, limiting only those aspects that most benefit Russia, but without a complete ceasefire—although this act is enough for allies like Sir Keir Starmer to call Kiev “the party of peace.”

Until now, Ukraine has used two concepts as the basis of its discourse: the idea of ​​a just peace, a peace in which Kyiv achieves all its goals (territorial, security, and compensation from Russia) and can impose its social and political model on the entire population, and peace through force, which has always been more about force than peace. The US insistence on ending the war has forced Kyiv to modify its tactics and try to achieve the maximum in much more complicated conditions. The close relationship between Biden and Zelensky has not been replicated, and the meeting in the Oval Office revealed Donald Trump's hostility toward the Ukrainian president, whom he had called a dictator a week earlier. This hostility possibly dates back to the US attempt to pressure Ukraine to obtain compromising material on Hunter Biden, son of then-candidate Biden.

With the Kursk trump card practically lost, although Zelensky clings to the assertion that his troops have achieved their objective and continue fighting to maintain their positions, Ukraine's remaining bargaining chip is the strength of its allies. At the time, when the EU and Kyiv found themselves expelled from a meeting they understood to be the beginning of brokering an agreement between major powers behind their backs, Ukraine and its allies implemented the slogan "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine and nothing about Europe without Europe." However, Kyiv has never wanted to negotiate on its own, but rather to repeat the Normandy Format of the Minsk agreements, showing up at the summits with the unconditional support of its allies, capable—or so Ukraine hoped—of forcing Moscow to accept the terms presented to it. This was the path by which Ukraine failed in its attempt to rewrite the peace agreement, demanding concessions beyond the letter and spirit of the signed document while making clear to Germany and France, guarantors of that process, its intention not to implement the political points of the roadmap. Unconditional acceptance of the terms offered is once again the core of Ukrainian tactics. Everything must happen at the behest of Ukraine and not as part of a dialogue between the warring parties. This is the case now, and it was also the case during the years when Ukraine was militarily and economically attacking Donbass, refusing to cease fire and the economic, transport, and banking blockade with which it tried to achieve what its army had failed to achieve.

This unconditional nature is now manifested in the attempt by Ukraine and its allies to get Russia to accept, without even being able to raise the question of who and how will monitor the ceasefire, a temporary cessation of the war in which Kyiv continues to strengthen itself and its allies continue trying to weaken Russia. In the virtual meeting convened by Keir Starmer, aspiring European military leader, the British prime minister stated that Ukraine and its allies have agreed to "maintain the flow of military assistance to Ukraine and continue to tighten restrictions on the Russian economy to weaken Putin's war machine and bring him to the [negotiating] table." Starmer's words clearly show the intended use of the ceasefire, as opposed to the Russian and American idea of ​​using this pause as the first phase of a negotiation seeking, not a chain of Minsk-style ceasefire processes, but a final resolution. In reality, Russia has been aspiring for months to be at that table, albeit with a voice and vote, not to ratify the decisions taken by France and Germany, as European leaders hope.

In December 2023, when even Volodymyr Zelenskyy had admitted the failure of the ground counteroffensive with which Ukraine hoped to achieve the position of strength that would force Moscow to accept Kyiv's diktat , Mikhail Podolyak, the most outspoken of the advisers to the President's Office, stated in statements reported by Fokus.ua that "there will be no negotiations in the classical sense of the term. There will be demands in the form of ultimatums to the Russian Federation at the highest level, and Russia will have to accept them. This is not a paradox; it is the objective development of the war we are experiencing." At that time, it was obvious that there would be no conclusive end to the war, and neither side would achieve a balance of power that would allow it to dictate the terms of the resolution. The alternative to negotiation was not the ultimatum desired by the President's Office, but the eternal war for which the European Union has been fighting until this very week.

The reality of the war, the balance of power, or the ability to impose an agreement on the other side is not a factor for kyiv, nor for its European allies, who still don't understand how realism can come from Washington. Excluded from the negotiating table a few weeks ago, the European Union and those countries that aspire to continue being perceived as powers began an internal process to impose a specific solution to the conflict. The fact that the proposed plan depends on the participation of the United States is not an argument that leads Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron to believe that their plan is flawed.

“Our armies will meet on Thursday of this week here in the United Kingdom to put in place firm and solid plans to support a peace agreement and guarantee the future security of Ukraine,” Starmer stated after announcing that the Anglo-French proposal for a peacekeeping or deterrence mission to be deployed in the rear areas, with thousands of Ukrainian soldiers protecting the front lines and the United States providing a “security mechanism,” aviation cover, and frontline surveillance, is now moving into the “operational phase.” European autonomy requires Washington's participation. The British Prime Minister's words must be added to those of Emmanuel Macron, who stated that he will only require “a few thousand men per country” and that he will not require Russian approval. In other words, the United Kingdom and France intend to impose a peace plan, which, among other aspects, implies the possibility of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO countries, without prior negotiation. There will be no negotiations, Podolyak dreamed aloud, just an ultimatum. Starmer and Macron intend to follow that path. Perhaps into the abyss.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/17/31783/

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America’s proxy war against Russia has failed

The European ruling class is in disarray over how best to handle this unwelcome reality – or even whether to admit to it at all.
Lalkar writers

Saturday 15 March 2025

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As US president Donald Trump announced his government’s intention to initiate ‘ceasefire talks’ with Russia, European leaders scrambled to hold an emergency summit, at which they pledged to continue their support for Ukraine, no matter what. It has been pointed out that this was, in fact, what the US government has been demanding – that the Europeans should take over arming and managing the war effort against Russia while the USA turns its attention to China.

With extraordinary speed, Moscow and Washington have agreed to talks about ending the war in Ukraine and fixed on a venue where they will initially take place – Riyadh. There have so far been no invitations issued either to actor-stooge president Volodymyr Zelensky or to Europe. By snubbing Zelensky in this way, it is tacitly admitted by the USA that the war has never been a war between the Russians and the Ukrainians, but rather an unprovoked proxy war of the USA against Russia.

And by leaving the European Union out in the cold, it is made clear from the outset that Russia has no intention of being led a merry dance the way it was with the Minsk accords, with Angela Merkel laughing up her sleeve throughout the whole performance whilst the murderous shelling of villages in the Donbass continued unabated.

Whilst Russia’s diplomatic initiative was very brisk, it was clearly a long time in gestation, and in choosing this moment to put the USA on the spot, President Vladimir Putin’s hand was guided primarily by the recognition that the enemy had been decisively beaten on the battlefield. The fact that the American electorate had also chosen this moment to elevate Donald Trump back into the presidency was no more than the icing on the cake.

The fact is that imperialist proxy forces in Ukraine are facing unmitigated disaster, both on the front lines of battle and on the home front. So unignorable has this situation become that even the New York Times has started to admit the true state of affairs.

On the battlefield
“Building on their momentum in eastern Ukraine, Russian forces have seized control of yet another small town, military experts say, taking another step in their grinding push to conquer the entire Donetsk region. Battlefield maps from independent groups analysing satellite images and combat footage show that the town, Velikaya Novosyolka, is now under Russian control, and the Kremlin claimed its capture on Sunday. Ukraine’s military acknowledged its withdrawal from most of the town but said that its troops maintained a foothold on the northern outskirts.

”Although this gain is modest compared with Russia’s recent seizure of nearby Ukrainian strongholds like Ugledar and Kurakhovo, it underscores the effectiveness of a tactic that Moscow has been employing to take one town after another in eastern Ukraine: using its overwhelming personnel advantage to attack relentlessly, gradually trapping Ukrainian forces in a pincer movement and forcing them to retreat to avoid encirclement.”

The press officer, Major Sekach, could not conceal a grudging admiration for the bravery and intelligence of the Russian forces as they launched relentless small-scale infantry assaults, “sending groups of about five soldiers every hour who moved under the cover of tree lines, making them hard to detect and target with drones. Once they reached buildings, they took cover in basements”.

He was candid in his appreciation of his enemy’s tactics. “From a tactical perspective, their approach was correct – they understood their capabilities and advantages and used them effectively,” concluding ruefully: “It would not be accurate to claim that the Russians don’t know how to fight.” (Russia seizes another Ukrainian town in push to take all of Donetsk by Constant Méheur, New York Times, 29 January 2025)

Civil war
With the situation on the front lines going from bad to worse, the home front morale is at an all-time low, with demoralisation and apathy developing into something like civil war. The pretence by the gestapo SBU (Ukraine’s security service) that the growing incidence of recruitment centres getting blown up is all the work of Russian agents, whilst complimentary to the latter, hardly accounts for the scale of the social revolt in progress:

“As Ukraine faces a desperate shortage of troops at the front line, there has been a wave of bombings against the recruitment centres meant to replenish the ranks, which law enforcement officials are calling a Russian-orchestrated campaign.

“In just the past week, explosions have gone off at three draft offices across the country. In two of the blasts, those placing the bombs were also killed, while 12 others were injured, including servicemen. Ukraine’s domestic security service, the SBU, said that Russian special services are recruiting young men to carry out the attacks in exchange for money.

“The bombings come as Ukraine’s mobilisation effort has been flagging three years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Soldiers in the field have said reinforcements are needed to fend off the invading Russians, but few Ukrainians are volunteering to fight now. Many draft-age men avoid recruitment centres and their officers altogether out of fear of being forced into service and there have been cases of centres being targeted by attacks with no obvious external links.

“Some soldiers placed stickers on their cars to say they weren’t recruitment officers because vehicles were being set on fire.

“The SBU and national police said this week they had jointly identified 497 individuals who had committed arson against military vehicles or planned to bomb recruitment centres and the Ukrainian railway, which is crucial for delivering weapons to the front line. Though Ukrainian law enforcement officials have pointed to Russia as being the main coordinator of these attacks, some incidents have occurred without Moscow’s direct involvement.

“On 31 January, a new conscript being transported to a training centre called an acquaintance to help him escape, according to law enforcement officials. When the bus stopped at a gas station, the acquaintance arrived and allegedly shot and killed a recruitment officer while he and the conscript escaped. Ukrainian prosecutors have since charged both men.

“Mykhailo Drapatyi, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, condemned the draft officer’s killing in a social media post, describing it as ‘a red line that cannot be crossed’. Calling for the perpetrators to be swiftly punished, he added that ‘we have no right to silently observe the growing wave of contempt toward defenders of Ukraine’.” (As Ukraine struggles to field soldiers, recruitment centres are attacked by Isabelle Khurshudyan and Kostiantyn Khudov, Washington Post, 7 February 2025, our emphasis)

But the reality is that nothing can stop that wave of contempt aroused in Ukrainian citizens as they come to understand the full damage for which the Banderite forces have been responsible.

Europe plunging deeper into crisis
Project Ukraine was intended to lighten the consequences of the overproduction crisis, but it has had the reverse effect.

The humiliating defeat of the proxy war against Russia has brought to a head the crisis in world imperialist society, revealing at a stroke the deep divisions that are tearing it apart. The war, which began with the western-backed nazi coup in Ukraine in 2014 and is now concluding with the complete victory of the Russian antifascist liberation forces, was intended to stave off the worst effects of the global crisis of overproduction.

The intention was to weaken and divide the Russian Federation in line with earlier Nato expansion, opening the way to a forcible change of government in Moscow and hand over of the economy to the market-starved monopoly capitalist parasites, resuming (only on a larger scale) the treacherous gangster capitalism which characterised the period of drunken comprador president Boris Yeltsin.

But things have not worked out that way for the warmongers. Not only has imperialism failed to drive a wedge between the Russians and their president and crack open the Russian economy, thus denying monopoly capital the desperately needed temporary respite from the stifling consequences of its own crisis of overproduction, but the failure of the war has hastened the maturation of the very crisis from which the imperialists are seeking to escape.

The war has speeded up the deindustrialisation of European nations, squandered their resources, emptied their armouries, destabilised their politics, driven their workers out of the factories and left the working class angry and rudderless.

Meanwhile, US imperialism rubs salt in the wound, castigating European leaders for not pouring even more weapons into the Ukrainian black hole, for not cranking their arms spending up to 5 percent of budget and for not pulling their weight in propping up Nato. In short, the war which was supposed to foster a spirit of unity in the collective west has served only to reveal the depth and breadth of the rancorous splits now opening up on all sides.

As it has always been fundamentally a proxy war waged by the USA against Russia, with Europeans serving in a subordinate role as bag carriers, gun runners, mercenaries and propagandists, it should be self-evident that the only countries with any claim to a seat at any serious peace talks would be Russia and the USA. It seems that for some this reality only began to dawn at the recent Munich security conference.

Neither Ukraine nor Europe has so far been invited to take part in the talks in Saudi Arabia which were agreed after a lengthy phone call between presidents Putin and Trump. NBC noted that Zelensky, “still excluded from discussions in Saudi Arabia as of late Saturday, has been left sidelined, and European leaders shared the Ukrainian president’s unease.

“After years of disunity and dithering, the leaders of the EU and the UK are worried they no longer have a seat at the table in negotiations that may reshape their ally’s borders, and are set to gather in Paris this week for a summit on the war, in response to concerns the USA is moving ahead without them.” (Europe scrambles for a seat at the table on Ukraine after Vance spells out collapse in relations by Freddie Clayton and Nancy Ing, NBC News, 16 February 2025)

Ruffled feathers were not much smoothed when it became clear that the USA had asked European governments gathered in Paris to make a list of what they would undertake to supply in the way of peacekeeping troops and cash once a deal had been done in Riyadh. Instead of an invitation to the party, they were just presented with another shopping list.

As the Financial Times put it: “Many European governments are also uneasy about responding to a US request this week for specific details about weaponry, money and peacekeeping troops that they would be prepared to send to post-conflict Ukraine, according to multiple officials briefed on the discussions between capitals.

“‘The general feeling is that this is a good exercise in terms of thinking about what each can offer, but that the response to the USA should be collective,’ said one of the officials.” Another commented somewhat cravenly: “I hope that whatever comes out of Paris is something which is appealing to the Americans so we can have more skin in the game.” (Europe scrambles to respond as US and Russia prepare for Ukraine peace talks by Henry Foy, Laura Pitel et al, Financial Times, 17 February 2025)

The four-man Russian negotiating team will be headed by the formidable Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. Notable for his absence from the USA’s team will be Keith Kellogg, the retired US general in his eighties who had previously been given the unenviable task of trying to achieve a common approach within Europe. His new task – breaking it to Cinderella that she was not invited to the ball after all – was no more enviable.

“Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said it was not realistic for Europe’s leaders to be involved. ‘It may be like chalk on the blackboard, it may grate a little bit, but I am telling you something that is really quite honest.’” (Starmer to join Macron-led European crisis summit on Trump’s Ukraine plan by Patrick Wintour and Toby Helm, The Observer, 15 February 2025)

Kellogg’s mission to keep the Europeans on side was doomed from the start. Keir Starmer may fool himself into believing that Britain, France and Norway could between them cobble together a ‘coalition of the willing’ – willing, that is, to further bankrupt their own national economies in the effort to grease the Nato war machine. But selling this tomfoolery to populations already hit by austerity, unemployment and poverty is another matter.

Take, for example, the pushback in the Czech Republic against spending yet more money to prop up Nato: “A Prague-led international effort to buy ammunition for Ukraine has come under threat by the opposition party of Andrej Babiš, who is slated to make a political comeback in elections later this year. The populist ANO party, which is leading in opinion polls ahead of the October vote, has pledged to put the ammunition initiative on hold if it returns to power …

“Czech president Petr Pavel, a former Nato commander, last year announced that his government was coordinating purchases of artillery shells on international markets in order to help replenish Ukraine’s dwindling ammunition stockpiles and fight Russia’s invasion. But Havlíček expressed doubts about the quality and price of shells. ‘We have information from the military sector that the quality is not ideal and that it is just extremely expensive,’ he said …

“The liberal government in Prague has warned that Babiš could turn his back on Ukraine and tighten links with pro-Kremlin leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Slovakia’s Robert Fico and Austria’s likely next chancellor, Herbert Kickl. Babiš’s ANO party was initially aligned with European liberals but last year joined Orbán’s far-right group in the EU assembly.” (Ammunition for Ukraine at risk as former Czech PM Babiš eyes comeback by Raphael Minder, Financial Times, 2 February 2025)

A coalition of those European countries willing to resist pressure from the Nato protection racket would have a lot more to recommend it than a coalition of those willing to be endlessly fleeced by the Nato/EU mafia.

Now the war is coming to a close and the US imperialists have shifted their tactics as they recognise that the Ukraine war is now utterly lost, the leaders of the European imperialist powers (France, Germany and Italy) are left desperately trying to cover up the fact that their gamble on defeating Russia and reviving their flagging economies by doing so has failed.

The imperialists are now finding that the big bourgeois political parties are starting to fall apart as the working class and sections of the petty bourgeoisie turn on those leaders who have led them into ever greater poverty as a result of the war and the sanctions regime.

The European leaders are utterly trapped; they cannot back out of their alliance with US imperialism. At the same time, sticking with this alliance will only cause more immiseration of their domestic working classes.

Breaking away from Nato and the EU will become increasingly popular now as the masses see these institutions only as the bringers of poverty and despair.

https://thecommunists.org/2025/03/15/ne ... ia-failed/

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Russia pro-ceasefire? Zelensky kaput?

Putin's curveball. Pro-ceasefire sentiment among military heroes. Russian drone superiority. Could peace destroy Ukraine? Zelensky to be whacked? Intro to Zelensky's top opps
Events in Ukraine
Mar 14, 2025

As usual, international negotiations and internal Ukrainian politics remain intertwined. Understanding Events in Ukraine has never been more timely.

On Wednesday, I wrote that it seemed unlikely that Russia would be enthusiastic about a 30-day ceasefire when it was winning on the battlefield. But I also wrote that Trump’s proposed 30-day ceasefire was agreed to by the Ukrainians in the hope that Russia would refuse it, which would supposedly lead to an angered Trump fully taking the side of Ukraine (I mean, of course, Western Civilization).

While Marco Rubio and every other western government spokesperson/media publication unanimously cried out that ‘the ball is now in Putin’s court’, the Kremlin has taken up the challenge - and thrown back a curveball.

Russia accepted the idea of a ceasefire, but stated that it ‘wasn’t complete’. It hasn’t budged on its overall line that it isn’t interested in a temporary ceasefire. Moscow wants only a serious, permanent peace deal which prevents Ukraine from joining NATO or from being a militarized anti-Russian Israel from Ali Express (also the source of many Ukrainian drones, by the way).

Such an outcome wasn’t totally unexpected. Ukrainian oppositional outlet strana.ua predicted that Putin might be willing to entertain the idea of temporary ceasefire, ‘with nuances’. In a March 12 article, right after the Saudi US-Ukraine negotiations ended, strana published an article titled ‘Is a ceasefire in Russia’s interests?’

In short, possibly. Sure, Russia is moving forward on the battlefield, but slower than it was in late 2024 (in the Donbass, at least). And while western claims of ‘meat storms’ might be cope, Russia’s army certainly is taking losses, and moving away from a contract volunteer system to full mobilization isn’t an appealing idea.

More interestingly, now that Ukraine’s Kursk salient has collapsed, there is one less impediment to a ceasefire. This was its real purpose, unlike the claimed ones. The official Ukrainian narrative around Kursk was that it was done to draw Russian forces away from east Ukraine and to possibly exchange Kursk’s nuclear power plant for the Russian controlled NPP in Ukraine’s south-east.

The first argument was illogical since Ukraine’s best troops were sent and Russia only advanced much more quickly in the Donbass, and the second was a nonstarter since Ukraine never got close to Kursk’s NPP, or anything even approaching a city. Even if they took a city, Russia would never exchange their own land for Ukraine’s. There was also talk of taking Kursk to prevent Russia from entering border territory in Ukraine, but that’s also somewhat illogical for obvious reasons.

The most likely motivation for Kursk was as a way for Zelensky to block talk of a ceasefire. I wrote about this here. If Ukraine held Kursk, talk of a ceasefire would be stillborn - Russia would never agree to freezing the frontline when Ukraine was holding Russian land. This was entirely in Zelensky’s interests, given that forever-war allows him to repress his ever-growing list of powerful domestic enemies.

Anyway, with Ukraine’s Kursk adventure over (add that to the list of Unanswered Questions Zelensky has to answer for), it becomes more thinkable for Russia to entertain a ceasefire. As strana wrote, while Russia is very unlikely to simply agree to a short-term ceasefire, it could signal its openness to a ceasefire while also demanding Trump push on the Ukrainians to agree to some other Russian demands. Since Ukraine has already done a 180 by agreeing to the idea of a ceasefire, which it had claimed for 3 years now was totally unthinkable, why not push for more? Strana predicted that Trump was entirely likely to oblige.

The Hero is skeptical
But what could the Kremlin want Ukraine to agree to? And why might it be interested in a ceasefire in Ukraine? Let’s turn to Radio Free Europe, Ukraine branch - Radio Svoboda. On March 8, they interviewed popular commander and Hero of Ukraine Kyryllo Veres on the topic of a ceasefire.



I’ve written about this Azov-allied commander in the past, who, like some other figures in Azov, is quite supportive of a ceasefire now (see here and here). This is because he fears that forever-war will unsustainably degrade Ukraine’s army with no results to show for it.

Veres had a complex take on ceasefire in his latest interview.

On the one hand, he worried that constant talk of a ceasefire was lowering the amount of people signing up to the army:

For example, there were 100 applications in one day—future recruits wanted to join our ranks. But after these news reports and statements [on ceasefire], the number has dropped by 10–15%. Now they say, "We’ll think about it. Maybe there will be a truce tomorrow, so why should we enlist today?" These are already the consequences of this situation.

….

This decision affects public sentiment. Public sentiment is declining—people don’t want to enlist, they don’t want to help. They are less willing or not as active anymore. It’s no secret that the volunteer community provides 50–60% of the supplies for all the armed forces. So, what can we talk about? When your salary was 1,000 UAH and then it became 200 or 500.


But on the other hand, he is tired of official propaganda on forever-war:

When talking to other commanders, they are not yet ready for this—for the borders of 1991, they are not ready.

I will say even more, from my personal perspective, we were more ready back then than we are now. As for the borders of February 24, 2022, let's first talk about the borders of February 24, 2024, or 2023. Let's start with that, and then we can discuss the borders of February 22, 2022, or those of 2014, 2015, and 2016—because those are still far off.

I believe that right now, 90% of frontline commanders would agree with me.


He’s also very tired of official propaganda:

[We need to] Cut down on certain TV channels and some broadcasts. But that’s a direction the government needs to choose—that’s just my personal opinion. Some channels make it seem like we’ve already won the war. I came home yesterday, watched TV for an hour, and wanted to resign from the army because, according to the news, we are winning the war tomorrow. Why am I even needed then? We’ll win without me! But that’s not reality.

It’s a zombie-box [a popular term in the post-soviet world about the TV]. People need to hear the truth. The more we lie, the greater the disappointment will be later. Every action has consequences. In 2023, promises were made about a counteroffensive. Now, we don’t have enough people. In 2022, there were plenty of volunteers; in 2023, still a lot.


Clearly, Veres wants a break to focus on renovating Ukraine’s army. This is also the reason why Azov’s leader, the ‘white Fuhrer’ Andrii Biletsky has been calling for a ceasefire. He’s been giving plenty of interviews lately, some of which I’ve covered already, some of which I’ll go into later on in this series. Veres, who commands a drone regiment, isn’t happy with Ukraine’s current production capacity:

And what is the situation in Russia regarding drones?

I think it's the same there, but on a much larger scale.

If, for example, one of our units can launch 3,000 FPV drones per month, while another can only launch 500–600, then in Russia, it’s the same—but multiplied by three.

And now understand this: if we in a top-tier unit are hit with 10,000 drones, in a weaker unit, it’s about 1,500. For us, it’s an absolute disaster.

From the very beginning, they have had more of everything. That’s the bare minimum. Even if we assume that everything is equal between us, from the start, they have had three times the personnel, three times the money, three times the ammunition—minus ten times. The same applies to drones. If they have a larger number of personnel, they also have more pilots, more launch points, and more drones. If we assume an equal baseline, they already have three times more. And if we add the fact that they simply outnumber us, the situation looks very grim.


Now, it is precisely this obvious Ukrainian desire to use a temporary ceasefire for the purpose of preparing for a new war against Russia that makes many Russian officials state their opposition to the idea. No wonder Russia isn’t unconditionally agreeing to the 30-day ceasefire proposal.

But Veres himself also thinks that the Russians might stand to benefit from an end to hostilities, even temporary. The reason is political, not military-industrial:

A ceasefire is temporary. No one will ever defeat Ukraine—we can only destroy ourselves. That’s my official statement:

No one will ever break us—there aren’t enough teeth to bite through us. We will not submit. Maybe some will, but there will always be those who won’t.

If I were in the Russians' position, I would simply sign a truce and give us six months to destroy ourselves. Then, I’d invade again, and this time, it would be easier to capture us. Because we would let our guard down.

Old "warriors" who never fought will start resurfacing, claiming to know how to do things. Society will forget about the military. Being a soldier will no longer be "in." And if things go terribly wrong, it might even become shameful.

God forbid it happens. But if we destroy ourselves, it will be the perfect plan.

I think I’m not the only one who understands this.


I bolded that section for a reason - I found it to be the most interesting part of the Veres interview. And it certainly isn’t the first time I’ve heard predictions of civil conflict in Ukraine following an end to military hostilities. With no external enemy to unify against, Ukraine will fall back into its prior state, somewhat approximating a Hobbesian war of all against all.

And as I write this, some more evidence that Veres might be write. Demyan Ganul, the nationalist ‘activist’ whose brutal deeds I described here, has just been executed on the streets of Odessa. All the nationalists are up in arms about it on telegram, while ordinary Ukrainian social media is filled with glee. (Video at link.)

No wonder - Ganul was most famous for beating an Odessan opposed to mobilization to a pulp, then sending him to the frontline where a video was released of the man stating he had been raped and was now loyal to the Ukrainian army. When the army is associated with such depraved press gangs, Veres is right to worry about its image. I’ve written here before about how many soldiers place stickers on their cars stating ‘we aren’t mobilization officers’ to try dissuade angry Ukrainians from setting the car alight.

And now we can answer the question of what Russia wants the US to push Ukraine to agree to - political democratization. I wrote about this a few weeks back, when the Politico article came out about how Trump and Putin were united in a nefarious plan to bring elections to Ukraine.

Veres himself swears against any desire to enter politics multiple times in the interview. He ends with the following appeal:

Instead of wearing rose-colored glasses, buy proper ballistic protective eyewear—the kind that can stop shrapnel. That’s my advice to the whole country.

Not much political advice other than unite around the army, enter the army, be the army. This leads quite organically onto the main topic of this series - coalition against Zelensky, emerging in fits and spurts, and most probably coagulating around the army.

Zelensky kaput?
Apart from Veres’ dramatic scenario, a minimum Russo-American aim with democratization would be to replace the unpredictable and volatile Zelensky with someone easier to negotiate with, someone more likely to agree to the inevitable.

Without getting too side-tracked, it reminds me of the 17th century wars over Ukraine between Russia and Poland, where a dizzying array of Hetmans (Cossack leaders) replaced each other, with each self-proclaimed ‘loyal patriot of Russia’ quickly becoming a new ‘cunning traitor’. Back to the present.

Zelensky has some tricks up his sleeve. The wily comic recovered from his 2021 crash-dive in popularity and proliferation of powerful enemies at home through the handy war with Russia. Now, many speculate that his ‘great showdown’ with the US is an attempt to rally both domestic and European support.

Regardless of his plans, many doubt that Zelensky has much time left in power. I’ve been writing a great deal here lately about Trump’s longstanding issues with Zelensky and Ukrainian officialdom in general, dating back to the Manafort saga and the 2019 phone impeachment debacle.

Zelensky loyalist (an excessively pompous word - the post-soviet term ‘political technologist’ is more apt in its cynicism) Mariana Bezuhla published her fears of a grand conspiracy against Zelensky on March 7. Attached were screenshots from a recent article on the topic of Trump-opposition contacts by the BBC. Here’s Bezuhla’s post:

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... nsky-kaput

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Putin, Trump Downplay Russia’s Refusal to Agree to Unqualified Ceasefire | Putin Says He’ll Let Ukrainian Troops in Kursk Live if They Surrender
March 15, 2025 natyliesb
Russia Matters, 3/14/25

In the past month, Russian forces made a net gain of 110 square miles in Ukraine (about 1 Nantucket island), according to the March 12, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In addition, the Russian army appeared on March 14 to be close to driving Ukraine from all the territory it had seized in Russia’s Kursk region, according to NYT’s March 14 report. The elimination of this salient, which Vladimir Putin discussed during his surprise visit to the Kursk region on March 12, would deprive Volodymyr Zelenskyy of a major bargaining chip in direct negotiations with Moscow if and when they would occur. Based data from ISW, RM’s War Report Card of March 12, 2025 estimates that Ukraine controlled only 79 square miles of the 470 square miles it captured at the height of its Kursk incursion in Sept. 2024: an 83% drop.
During their March 11 meeting in Saudi Arabia, high-level U.S. and Ukrainian delegations endorsed the West’s proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict contingent on Russia’s consent to observe it. However, even before Steve Witkoff, a member of the U.S. delegation, could take the proposal for the unconditional ceasefire to Moscow, Vladimir Putin’s chief foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov spoke against it. “This is nothing other than a temporary time-out for Ukrainian soldiers, nothing more. Our goal is a long-term peaceful resolution,” Ushakov said March 13. Speaking later that same day, Putin gave a qualified approval of the proposal, conditioning its adoption on a number of Russian demands. “We start from the position that this cessation should lead to a long-term peace and eliminate the causes of this crisis,” Putin said. “Then there arise questions over monitoring and verification,” said Putin prior to meeting Witkoff, whom he reportedly kept waiting for eight hours. In the absence of Russia’s unequivocal support for the ceasefire proposal, both Putin and Trump took pains to avoid admitting a setback. Trump described Witkoff’s meeting with Putin as productive. “There is a very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an end,” Trump claimed. A decision on a phone call or a meeting between Trump and Putin will be made once Witkoff has relayed to Trump the information from the talks, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Witkoff flew from Moscow to Baku upon completing his visit to the Russian capital, with Trump reportedly expecting his aide back in the U.S. so that Trump can “learn more” about the outcome of the talks with Putin on March 17.
In addition to Witkoff’s visit to the Russian capital, several more government-to-government contacts have been reported between America and Russia this week as Moscow and Washington continue to explore normalizing the bilateral relationship. The head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, and U.S. CIA Director John Ratcliffe agreed to maintain regular contacts during a phone call March 11 to discuss cooperation between their agencies, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Russian and European officials say the U.S. is exploring ways to work with Russia’s energy giant Gazprom on global projects, according to Bloomberg. It has also been earlier reported that U.S. and Russian officials are already discussing issues ranging from the resumption of direct flights and the return of Russian diplomats’ missions in the U.S., to Russian-Ukrainian peace and Russian assistance to the U.S. in communicating with Iran over its nuclear program. Moreover, the Kremlin is exploring its options for a potential meeting between Putin and Trump in April or May in the Middle East, Russian officials told MT.

(More at link, delusional bullshit.)

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/03/put ... surrender/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Mar 18, 2025 12:04 pm

Red lines of the negotiation
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/18/2025

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While waiting to see if the telephone conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin today will result in some kind of major announcement, as the US president seems to expect, the media continues to try to determine the negotiating position of the parties and, above all, what the real red lines are between kyiv and Moscow, within which the negotiations may proceed. On Sunday, Marco Rubio spoke of a "plan A and plan B," in reality a phase A and phase B, an initial ceasefire and subsequent negotiation, a position closer to the Russian position than to the Ukrainian or European one. Surprisingly, given Donald Trump's authoritarianism and the fact that it is the United States that holds the cards with which to seriously pressure Kiev and Moscow, Washington's position is more favorable to negotiation, compared to the inflexible stance of the European Union and the United Kingdom, which expect Moscow to receive a ceasefire or peace offer in which it has no say other than to accept.

The statements made in recent months by Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Steve Witkoff, who continue to make media appearances demanding they announce what concessions they will demand from Moscow, show that the objective of Trump's entourage is to obtain as much as possible for Ukraine, but without risking a situation of direct confrontation with the Russian Federation, something they share with the Biden administration. They also renounce the eternal war that European countries seemed prepared for until last week, when they quickly understood the merits of a 30-day ceasefire that Russia had to accept without question. With some difficulty dodging questions about what they will demand from Moscow, given that it has become clear that the United States expects Ukraine to temporarily relinquish part of its territories, Steve Witkoff mentioned three issues. "There are regions where we all know the Russians are focused. There is a nuclear reactor that supplies a significant amount of electricity to Ukraine. That needs to be addressed. There is access to ports. There is the potential Black Sea settlement," he stated.

“Judging by the statements of Trump and Zelensky, the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is emerging as a realistic concession that the United States and Ukraine are trying to wrest from Putin,” commented Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin yesterday, who favors a ceasefire and a subsequent transition to negotiations that would achieve a realistic end to the war. The Energodar nuclear power plant, which kyiv has not hesitated to attack with artillery and drones to make it impossible for Russia to remain at the facility, has always been one of Ukraine's main targets, and it is even more so now that part of its electricity production potential has been destroyed. kyiv likely intended to use the Kursk card to achieve a territory swap that would return these critical infrastructures. With that trump card lost, kyiv's remaining leverage is the pressure the United States can apply. “If the Kremlin enters these talks seriously, it will mean that it doesn't seriously expect Ukraine to withdraw from the unoccupied parts of the four formally annexed regions. That's why it will likely remain silent or in denial mode until the agreement is more tangible. But it will demand something in return: perhaps territory, perhaps something else,” Ragozin explained, concluding by highlighting the good news that “the dialogue” is shifting “from fantasy lands to realistic goals.”

The failed defense of Kursk, which media outlets like the British BBC now admit even though Ukraine continues to insist that the fighting continues and announces daily that its troops have moved to "more advantageous defensive positions"—a way of admitting constant withdrawals—makes it no longer realistic for Ukraine to demand large territories in exchange for its holdings in Kursk, currently equivalent to the territory Russia controls north of Kharkiv, an area not exactly what Zelensky hoped to obtain in exchange for Suya and its surroundings. Not so long ago, the Ukrainian president claimed that Ukrainian troops would have been able to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant or the regional capital, but chose not to. Capturing these sites, which Kyiv never had a chance of obtaining, would have given Ukraine the strength it now yearns for and which it is trying to compensate for with pressure from its allies.

The goal is to make no more concessions. To achieve this, Ukraine continues with a completely unrealistic narrative that not only its victory is inevitable, but also the self-destruction of the Russian Federation. “The Ukrainians have burned the once bottomless arsenals of Soviet-era materiel. Now, the basis of Russian tactical successes are literally the corpses of their own soldiers,” wrote Mikhail Podolyak, advisor to Andriy Ermak, Zelensky's right-hand man, yesterday for the umpteenth time. According to the Ukrainian version, Russia lost its Soviet arsenals several years ago, the starting point for a military collapse that, confusing wishful thinking with reality, still awaits. Podolyak, who, overlooking the way Ukraine is forcibly recruiting on the streets, claims that “Russian generals wage war with medieval indifference to the lives of their infantry, recruited from the poorest strata of society,” adds that “the almost inevitable future aggression against Europe will end what remains of the empire's demographic potential. The beast devours everything around it and itself. As for Russia's self-destruction, it is an inevitable historical process. Sadly, however, it comes at the cost of the blood of other nations.” The antidote to aggression is simple: prevent “the aggressor” from being “rewarded for his bloodbath with Ukrainian territories.” Despite Zelensky's recent shift, and subsequently that of the European Union, to a rhetoric of peace with only Russia as an obstacle, the discourse from the President's Office remains one of the obligation to continue fighting until Ukraine recovers its lost territories, an idea that will likely endure beyond a hypothetical agreement to end the current war.

Somewhat more diplomatically, Ukraine's foreign minister yesterday preferred not to speak of "red lines" but rather of "fundamental aspects" that "are not being touched." Hours earlier, The Independent had published, citing anonymous Ukrainian government sources, three of these lines that Kiev does not intend to cross. None of them are surprising and simply reflect the current situation and Ukraine's long-standing desires. In the words of the British outlet, "no more territory will be ceded, despite Putin's desire to seize four Ukrainian regions partially occupied by the Russian army since 2014." Added to this main objective are "the return of thousands of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia. The return of thousands of civilians illegally held by Russia, who are not considered prisoners of war and therefore would not be included in the exchanges" and, finally, the most difficult issue, "the need for international security guarantees in case Putin violates any ceasefire agreement." Zelensky has repeatedly insisted that post-war Ukraine's security must be guaranteed by NATO countries with the participation of the United States, a point that contradicts Russia's main red line: its rejection of the Alliance's presence on Ukrainian territory.

For the moment, the security issue trumps the recovery of lost territories. Ukraine seems aware that it lacks the strength to successfully recapture the areas captured by Russia since February 2022, much less Donbass and Crimea. However, kyiv makes no secret of the fact that this is its long-term objective. The first "fundamental aspect" for Minister Sibiha "is the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. Ukraine will never recognize occupied territories. Secondly, no country has the right to veto the choice of the Ukrainian people, over Ukraine's choice to participate in certain alliances, be it the European Union or NATO." The Ukrainian foreign minister, who adds as a third point that remains unaddressed that "there can be no restrictions on Ukraine's defense capabilities, there can be no restrictions on the strength of our military," makes it clear that Kiev continues to aspire to achieve all of its two main objectives: territorial integrity and NATO membership, two conditions that require an endless war to defeat Russia on the battlefield, the only way for Moscow to be forced to unconditionally accept its two red lines. Despite the rhetoric of peace, neither the ceasefire currently being attempted nor the most likely resolution, given the current balance of power, can satisfy Ukraine.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/18/linea ... gociacion/

Google Translator

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The trump cards that Trump thinks he has on the Ukrainian issue

Hugo Dionísio

March 16, 2025

As the player he is, Trump wants to keep all the cards on the table. The EU, despite the bluff, ensures Trump access to the final prize.

In a week where the expectations of many Atlanticists regarding the Kursk adventure continue to deteriorate, we continue to witness successive media circus episodes surrounding the conflict in Ukraine. Between a Trump apparently concerned with a “lasting” peace in Ukraine, a “Europe” that insists on classifying the Russian Federation as a “threat,” a Zelensky aligned with EU powers but seemingly more open to starting negotiations, a Macron who claims to speak for all of Europe and states that “Putin cannot be trusted,” a Von Der Leyen who insists on a massive increase in military spending, and a Ukrainian delegation in Riyadh that, after the degrading spectacle at the White House, ultimately, a few days later, and after a decisive defeat in the Kursk adventure, comes to accept a proposal for an immediate ceasefire—all these episodes, seemingly contrasting, end up fitting together perfectly, complementing each other like a deck of cards at Trump’s service.

To understand how they fit together, the best way to approach them is to start with the last of these episodes: the farce of the negotiations in Saudi Arabia. It is no secret to anyone, whether they agree with the position and aspirations of the Russian Federation or not, what is intended with what has been termed the “Special Military Operation”: to demilitarize, denazify, neutralize Ukraine militarily, preventing its integration into NATO, and to protect Russian populations from the xenophobic persecutions recorded after the Euromaidan coup.

Nevertheless, the Russians have never shied away from leaving open lines of dialogue, as demonstrated when they went to Saudi Arabia to confer with the U.S. delegation. True to their nature, they did not mince words, play games, or send smoke signals. They were very clear that they are not prepared to negotiate fragile and temporary solutions, but only solid, lasting understandings that consider the Russian Federation’s security concerns. This situation has not changed, as the mainstream press now reports that Russia has made a list of demands for them to accept the ceasefire.

Nevertheless, Marco Rubio, after negotiating an agreement with the Ukrainian delegation for the famous “rare earths,” ensuring their supposed exploitation by the U.S., told anyone who would listen that the progress would now be the subject of a concrete proposal to the Russian Federation. The tone was clear and aimed to make people believe that the Americans are hopeful about the outcome of this entire mediation process. Are they?

Let us return to the Russian Federation and ask the following question: to what extent will the proposal for an immediate ceasefire, made at a time when Moscow’s forces have achieved a resounding and humiliating victory in the Kursk region, be to the liking of the Russian delegation? Will any of the objectives so often emphasized by the Kremlin be guaranteed? Can it be inferred from the immediate ceasefire that Ukraine accepts all the demands of the Russian side? And is it believable that, with the Russian Federation in a position of primacy in the conflict, it would throw it all away with a ceasefire? Especially when, contrary to what was announced, the U.S. never actually stopped supplying weapons and intelligence to Ukraine?

As we all heard in the mainstream press, Marco Rubio informed journalists that the supply of weapons to Ukraine had resumed. This means that it was never actually suspended. The time between one act and the other, just two days, would make the materialization of the suspension impossible considering the necessary bureaucratic deadlines. Therefore, if the U.S. did not suspend the supply of weapons to Kiev’s forces, and, on the contrary, supposedly even resumed it, what signal does this send to the Russian Federation? A signal that they want to negotiate? That they are acting in good faith? That they are genuinely interested in pressuring Kiev to accept negotiations?

It does not seem so to me, and, on the contrary, the message that may be conveyed is the opposite, namely that the ceasefire will serve the Kiev regime to regroup, consolidate forces, and rearm. If this were not the case, what would be the purpose, in a phase of discussing a ceasefire proposal, of resuming a supply that was never, in fact, suspended? What message will this send to Russia? That the U.S. wants to stop the war, but does not want to stop the supply of weapons? At the very least, it is contradictory and seemingly pointless.

Therefore, given this reality, it is not at all credible that the Russian Federation will accept the proposal for an immediate ceasefire—let us note that Lavrov has already mentioned several times that the Kremlin will no longer be swayed by “naivety”—we must ask ourselves, considering all these factors, whether it is acceptable to assume that the American proposal is genuine and that the intentions of the White House are genuine. How can they, who have access to all the information, believe that the Russian Federation will accept, without further ado, a proposal of this type, without any guarantees being provided and while continuing to supply weapons to Kiev? As Ushakov, Putin’s advisor, said, the Kremlin is interested in a lasting peace, not an “interval.”

The Russian non-acceptance will be very plausible, particularly following the presentation of demands that Kiev will not be prepared, from the outset, to accept. Even if, for diplomatic reasons, Moscow’s rejection is expressed with all due care, so as not to justify the definitive distancing of the other parties. This does not mean that the Russian representatives do not know what is on the table, the real intentions of the White House, and the possibility that, for domestic consumption in the U.S., the non-acceptance of the ceasefire proposal will be used further to demonize the Kremlin. Something that, in these times, will hardly concern the Russians and their representatives.

Indeed, it is not unprecedented if Trump and his cronies address the American people and say that the Russian Federation does not want to give up anything, does not want to concede anything, and, therefore, is not interested in “stopping the conflict immediately.” If, for domestic consumption in the U.S., this discourse works, from a material perspective, looking at the balance of forces on the ground, why would Moscow concede in its intentions, given that it is in a position of military primacy? Especially when Moscow has always stated that it does not want “just an end” to the conflict and that this “end” must be accompanied by the resolution of the underlying problems.

This Russian position can only seem outrageous to Westerners and Americans who are intoxicated by the propaganda that initially said that “Ukraine was winning the war” and “Russia was going to be defeated on the battlefield,” later that “the conflict is stalemated,” or, already under Trump, that “both sides are losing and Russia has already lost a million men.” For those who knew, from the first day, that this would be a conflict lost for the West, unless it ended in a situation where everyone would lose, that is, in nuclear Armageddon, it is no surprise that the Kremlin does not give up on its objectives, since, given the state of affairs, if it does not achieve them in negotiations, it achieves them on the battlefield.

Let us return to domestic consumption and the circus to confuse and convince the Western peoples. In a situation where the Russian Federation remains intransigent in its aspirations, as is expected, I believe that Trump will need the “agreement” on his “raw” mineral lands, as a trump card to play before his public. After all, for what other reason would so much importance be given to an agreement that, considering the knowledge about recorded mineral reserves, has a very limited material effectiveness? Given that the territory controlled by the Kiev regime does not include mineral reserves of great importance, since those existing in that region are already in the possession of the Russians or in territory considered “occupied” by the Russian Federation, why would Washington place so much emphasis on a handful of nothing?

The importance attributed to the mineral agreement by the White House is explained by the fact that this understanding constitutes a trump card, for domestic play, at the disposal of the new administration led by Donald Trump. As a businessman, to be able to continue the Ukrainian venture, after the predictable rejection or presentation, by the Russians, of demands that the U.S. will have difficulty guaranteeing, Trump needs, at least, two arguments: 1. To convince the American people that it is the Russians or the Ukrainians themselves—or even the Europeans—who do not want to make concessions with a view to an understanding, as they did not accept the “reasonable, sincere, and generous” proposal of “President Trump”; 2. The maintenance of spending on Ukraine is safeguarded because “President Trump” made a mineral agreement with Kiev, which guarantees the payment to the U.S., with interest, of the amounts advanced, past or future.

In other words, if the Russians do not want peace, the Ukrainians do not accept it, or the Europeans boycott it, Trump will always have the necessary cards to convince the MAGA people that he did everything to end the war, but didn’t succeed. But even if he does not succeed, he still ensures that the U.S. does not come out harmed by the situation. And thus, Trump gets out of the Ukrainian problem, staying in it, but being able to say that he is not responsible and that, in any case, he has guaranteed access to “valuable” mineral reserves that largely compensate for the costs. Will the war continue? Yes! But Trump will be able to say that it is not his fault and that, unlike Biden, he found a way to compensate taxpayers for the expenses made. Of course, this is a fallacy, as we all know how much U.S. multinationals have appropriated assets under the possession of the Kiev regime.

If this is the case, and I believe it may go this way, at least Trump will want to have a wide range of options that allow him to gracefully escape to one side or the other. He will continue, in any case, not only to sell weapons to Ukraine, but also to the European Union and other “allies,” something he will not want to give up. If the conflict stops under the conditions he desires, Trump will count on those mineral reserves in Ukraine, which will largely compensate for the end of the weapons business with Ukraine and all the money the U.S. has lent them.

This is, therefore, the dual role of the problematic mineral agreement with Zelensky. It allows for argumentative reinforcement in any situation. The mineral agreement guarantees the payment of past amounts, if the war ends or the U.S. withdraws from it, and of future amounts, if the war continues. Before the American people, Trump will always come out on top.

Therefore, for Trump, everything seems to boil down to ensuring that he has at his disposal a wide range of equally advantageous options that provide justifications before the American people. However, there is something that may not fit well into this strategy. And this doubt lies in the fact that no reserves of “rare earths” are known in Ukraine, and even considering other mineral reserves, it is in the territory that Russia considers its own—the Donbass—that the largest and most valuable reserves are found. Hence, one should question to what extent the intention of the ceasefire, associated with the maintenance of arms flows to Ukraine and, in conjunction with the Russian distancing from the ceasefire proposal, does not have yet another option up Trump’s sleeve.

As someone who loves to talk about cards, this seems like a real player’s move. If the Russian Federation does not accept the ceasefire, or any proposal to divide the disputed lands, guaranteeing the U.S. access to at least part of the largest and most valuable mineral reserves in the region, the U.S. cannot only further demonize the Kremlin before American voters, but also justify the continuation of the war, the sale of weapons, and attempt to aspire—which we know is an illusion—to the reconquest, at least partial, of the Donbass, thus giving practical effect to the mineral agreement they made with Zelensky’s gang.

In other words, the practical material effect of the mineral agreement, if suspicions regarding the meager reserves in Kiev’s possession are confirmed, only occurs if the Russian Federation agrees to negotiate—through concessions demanded by Kiev—the division of lands in its possession or about to be, or, if this does not happen—as is expected that Russia will not accept—through a reconquest by forces loyal to Kiev of part of these lands. Without verification of one of these situations, from the outset, the mineral agreement is nothing more than a trump card for domestic consumption. Be that as it may, the U.S. always wins. They win from the Russians, if they concede (buying peace through territorial concessions) and from the Europeans, because they buy more weapons; they win from the Ukrainians, if the Russians do not concede, and from the Europeans, who continue, in any situation, on the path of militarization.

Hence, in practice, I tend to believe that Zelensky has bought, in this way, through the promise of future proceeds, the support he needs to continue the war, trying to get the Russians to agree to a 30-day pause in the conflict, which, without changing much, would at least temporarily stop the war machine that the West indirectly led the Russian Federation to build. They can also use the rejection of the ceasefire to try to distance some of Russia’s allies, through the dissemination of information that this time it would be Russia, and not Ukraine, that is rejecting the end of the fighting and the containment of the conflict. This will be another trump card at Trump’s disposal, to try to bring Russia to the negotiating table.

Trump hopes, through these stratagems, to be able to blackmail the Russian Federation with more sanctions, international isolation, and arms supplies to Ukraine—where the supposed resumption of supplies fits wonderfully—to obtain territorial concessions, where the mineral reserves are located. Will Russia allow itself to be dragged into such a situation? It does not seem so to me, but in Trump’s mind, this will make a lot of sense. But, somewhere, the theory expressed by Marco Rubio that “Russia is also losing” and that Russia is also interested in stopping the conflict fits in, trying to convey that the desperation is not only Kiev’s, but also Moscow’s.

At the same time as this is happening and Trump is opening all these options, we must also listen carefully to the words of Peter Hegseth in Brussels. If the tone of Rubio and Trump oscillates towards the need to stop immediately the Ukrainian conflict, only now knowing that they intend to do so superficially and without presenting the guarantees for which the Russians have fought so hard—although they have repeatedly stated that they reject a Ukraine in NATO—the tone of Hegseth, on the other hand, has been more directed towards the need for Europe to assume its defense, take responsibility in the conflict, and face, itself, the threats that loom over it. It is not worth mentioning what those threats are.

Combining these two discourses, we have the complete picture, also understanding that what seems to be a contradiction between European behavior and Trump’s aspirations is, in fact, no contradiction at all, quite the contrary. Taking Trump as a kind of demon who brought with him the military collapse of Ukraine, the European Union, after three years of hiding from Europeans the real situation on the ground, now takes advantage of the demonization of the Trump administration as a counterpoint to the sanctification it makes of the Kiev regime. A regime that has now aligned itself with… Trump. Closing an apparently “irreconcilable” circle.

The fact is that the resistances and rejections expressed by the EU “leaders” to the strategy followed by the Trump administration, regarding negotiations with the Russian Federation and the intention—at least enunciated and now embodied in a simple “ceasefire“—to put an end to the war in Ukraine, are tremendously contradictory with the practical decisions taken by the EU itself, with such more aligned decisions with the aspirations of these “new” U.S. than the apparently conflicting discourse might lead one to believe. Once again, Peter Hegseth said, in Brussels, for all to hear, that it was time for Europe to remove the Ukrainian burden (“unburden”) from the shoulders of its Atlantic allies, so that they can face even more tremendous challenges, which only the U.S. can and have an interest in facing.

Hence, this circus of appearances during which we witness a kind of complot against Trump, by the “leaders” of the European Union, when analyzed in depth and beyond appearances, allows us to see that, in some way, the EU remains aligned with the hegemonic strategy of the U.S.—which did not end under Trumpism. The European Union, faced with the “desertion” of the U.S., instead of demanding from them the responsibilities that fell to them, immediately aligned itself with the discourse conveyed by Peter Hegseth and, against the aspirations of the European peoples, voluntarily accepted the proposal of desertion from Washington and began to comply with the order enunciated by the White House, betting everything on the militarization of the European Union. Even guaranteeing Trump a prize for the “desertion”: the exponential increase in European spending within the framework of an increasingly obsolete NATO.

Clearly, and contrary to appearances, the European Union of the vehement Von Der Leyen not only does not clash with Trump’s aspirations, but facilitates his task concerning the Ukrainian disaster. As if its role were to facilitate his task, helping him to divert attention from the essential. The EU diverts attention from Trump, assumes the weight of the U.S. burden, freeing them for their Pacific venture. All this while seeming very angry with the new administration, but doing everything so that its actions converge with the hegemonic strategic needs of the U.S.

The EU, assuming the financing of the project and the increase in European spending on armaments, allows Trump to maintain the range of options I mentioned earlier. If he continues within the conflict, Trump has the justification of Russian, Ukrainian, or European intransigence; if he wants to leave, Trump sells weapons to the EU and Ukraine and, even if the conflict ends, Trump always guarantees, in the increase of European funds for defense, the gains he could get from the conflict, and with interest. He also guarantees, if the conflict ends on his terms, a portion of the minerals that currently are in the possession of the Russian Federation. The U.S. will never lose, no matter the alternative. At least I believe this is Trump’s aspiration, an aspiration that clashes with the fact that it is very difficult for Russia to allow itself to be blackmailed or dragged into a situation where the winners are the U.S., at the expense of Russia itself. I do not see Moscow in such a state of desperation. On the contrary, the desperation is on the side of Kiev and the European Union, and it is from these that Trump will take the scalp.

Hence, we must clearly distinguish between what Trump’s entourage says when it refers to “the President wants to end this problem.” Everything has to do with optics, with “ending” meaning not being held responsible for what happens. Hence, by blaming Russia, Ukraine, the EU, or Biden, Trump has at his disposal a wide range of cards that, at least in his Machiavellian mind, allow him to get out of this conflict gracefully. Trump gets out of the conflict, which does not mean that the conflict does not continue and that the U.S. does not continue to send its weapons there. Trump, on the other hand, no matter what happens, will always come out clean and with gains—even if virtual or future—to present to his supporters, which ’justify’ the failure of the negotiations.

As the player he is, Trump wants to keep all the cards on the table. The EU, despite the bluff, ensures Trump access to the final prize.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... ian-issue/

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The Phony Ceasefire
March 16, 2025

Knowing well in advance that Russia would reject it, the U.S. and Ukraine announced with fanfare that its ceasefire deal was in “Russia’s court” in what was an exercise of pure public relations, writes Joe Lauria.

Image
Starmer hugging Zelensky outside No. 10 Downing Street. (No 10 Downing Street/Wikimedia Commons)

By Joe Lauria
Special to Consortium News



Nothing could have been clearer than Russia’s repeated conditions for a permanent end of the war, rather than a temporary ceasefire: Ukraine’s neutrality, its demilitarization and denazification, the inclusion of four Russian-speaking oblasts into the Russian Federation and treaties establishing a new security architecture in Europe.

Equally clear was Ukraine’s utter rejection of these conditions, demanding instead the return of every inch of its territory, including Crimea, and Ukraine’s membership in NATO.

It is the reason the two sides are still fighting a war. It is a war, however, that Ukraine is badly losing. Obscuring that fact is an important aim of Ukraine and its European allies to keep their publics onside.

But it isn’t only their publics that need convincing to continue supporting Ukraine, but the president of the United States too.

After the Oval Office dustup, in which Donald Trump and J.D. Vance laid it on the line to Zelensky in public, the Europeans held two summits. At both they made loud noises about continuing to support Zelensky, but also made clear they couldn’t do it without the United States.

Much as they loathe him, Zelensky and the European leaders need Donald Trump. So they set Zelensky up to writing a letter sucking up to Trump, a man clearly susceptible to flattery.

Very likely also influenced by his Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, both of whom had previously expressed neocon support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russia, Trump was apparently turned around, convinced to propose the 30-day ceasefire.

Trump then somehow got the notion that Vladimir Putin, despite his oft repeated conditions for ending the war, would yield to pressure. It could be Trump thinks he is a neutral mediator who needs to bully both sides to force them to do a deal.

So after the ceasefire was floated, Trump resumed arms and intelligence flows to Ukraine, new sanctions on Russia were threatened and Ukraine fired 350 drones at residential areas of Moscow just as Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff was arriving in Moscow to discuss the ceasefire.

Like Casting a Lone Veto

Image
Russian Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya casting veto in U.N. Security Council in 2019. (Cia Pk/United Nations)

All this was designed to push Putin to accept it or appear like a man guilty of rejecting peace. If U.S. arms, intelligence and sanctions had not deterred Putin before, why would it now?

Putin saw this as the public relations exercise that it is and treated it as such. He responded with public relations of his own.

Instead of firmly saying the expected, “No,” he said, “Yes,” followed by “nuances,” such as who would monitor such a ceasefire along a 2,000-kilometer front?

He said such a ceasefire could not begin as occupying Ukrainian troops were encircled on Russian territory; and, crucially, that a 30-day ceasefire — with no Ukrainian rearmament — could only mark the start of talks for a permanent settlement. Putin exposed the motive to give Ukrainian troops on the run a chance to regroup.

Just as designed, Zelensky and European leaders blasted Putin for being a man who loves war, and hates peace.

At the U.N. Security Council, which I covered as a correspondent for a quarter of a century, I often saw countries introduce resolutions for a vote even though they were certain one of the five permanent members would veto it.

Diplomats explained that this was done on purpose to force the arm of that nation’s ambassador to be the lone one raised in opposition to the measure for all the world to see, causing it maximum public embarrassment.

That is precisely the exercise we have seen with this phony ceasefire proposal. The Europeans and the Ukrainians are trying to milk it for all it’s worth. Zelensky did a selfie video to call Putin a “manipulator” of world leaders.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “The Kremlin’s complete disregard for President Trump’s cease-fire proposal only serves to demonstrate that Putin is not serious about peace.”

Starmer deployed the scare tactic that Putin is bent on European conquest, saying: “Russia’s appetite for conflict and chaos undermines our security back here in the United Kingdom.” He even tried to blame his political difficulties at home on Russia for “driving up energy costs.”

Meanwhile Starmer says a European peacekeeping force is moving to “operational phase” ahead of a Thursday meeting of European leaders. Only with a ceasefire and Russia’s consent could such a force be deemed “peacekeepers” however.

European leaders, who’ve staked their reputations on not losing in Ukraine, can apparently see no other way than to scaremonger a Russian threat and meet it by unnecessarily militarizing the continent. They need their publics to support this.

In the end, the “ceasefire” gambit may indeed create more public sympathy for Ukraine and more irrational fear of Russia. But the big question is whether it will harden Trump against Russia by continuing arms shipments and intelligence and perhaps levelling new sanctions against Moscow.

All that would do, however, is prolong the death and destruction. Without NATO’s direct participation in the war against Russia, which would risk nuclear annihilation, the outcome of the war is certain. Because of that, Trump could resume pressure on Zelensky to essentially give up instead.

The ball is now in Trump’s court. On Sunday he told reporters he would be discussing land and control of powet plants in telephone call with Putin scheduled for Tuesday. “We want to see if we can bring that war to an end,” he said. “Maybe we can. Maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance.”

The course of this three-year conflict since Russia’s intervention makes clear that the longer Ukraine tries to fight, the worse deal it will get, no matter how many public relations points it might win along the way.

https://consortiumnews.com/2025/03/16/t ... ceasefire/

******

Boots-on-Ground Theater Conceals Raging Impotence of Toothless Euro-Prats
Simplicius
Mar 16, 2025

<snip>

And speaking of advances, Ukrainian officials report that the Russian army is beginning to restart movements all along the front:

‼️🇺🇦😱 "The situation is becoming increasingly threatening" - the Ukrainian Armed Forces are sounding the alarm over the intensification of attacks by the Russian army in the south.

On air at the telethon, a representative of the Ukrainian "Southern Defense Forces" reported that there are more strikes and assaults every day. Russian troops are starting to become more active in the Kherson direction. The situation is also getting worse in the Zaporizhzhya, Gulyai-Pole and Orekhov directions.


(Video at link.)

Bearing testament to this have been new confirmations from top map-makers of small Russian captures in Zaporozhye, Velyka Novosilka, etc. Let’s take a look at a few with the help of Suriyak maps:

▪️There were small advances northwest of Soledar in Vasykovka, Grygorovka, and Sakko i Ventsetti:

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▪️In Zaporozhye, Russians captured positions in Kamyanske and advanced toward Mali Shcherbaky, after having captured Pyatikatky last week:

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One report states:

Seven days ago, Russian forces sent reinforcements to the Zaporizhia frontline from where they began a new advance for the first time since late 2022. The aim of this operation is limited around the supply lines west of Orykhiv until they reach the Ukrainian first line of defence and the heights in this area.

▪️On the Kremmina front on the border of Donetsk and Lugansk, Russian forces advanced northwest of Ivanovka and north of Novolyubovka:

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▪️Even further north on the Kupyansk front, Russian forces reportedly crossed the Oskil River again from two new axes east of Krasne Pershe and Kamyanka:

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The yellow circles represent the previous lodgements across the river which have turned into full frontlines north of Kupyansk, which is circled in white. The red circles show the new bridgeheads across the river, likely at a place where Ukrainian forces are particularly thin, in order to build up the logistical rear of the forward area further south and begin encircling the town of Kamyanka nearby.

Also, note the areas circled in yellow—they have grown vastly in size since I last reported on them, as they continue slowly capturing new territory as they grow outward and inch southward toward Kupyansk.

▪️There have been small advances further south toward Seversk and around Belogorovka, and around Skudne, north of Velyka Novosilka.

▪️In Toretsk, where Ukrainian units have won back many positions over the last couple weeks, Russians went back on the offensive, and are in the process of recapturing it all. In reality, it turned out much of the northern half of the city was in a gray zone, which was merely recaptured by AFU. I had suggested that Zelensky used Toretsk as a deflection from the Kursk disaster, sending units to capture a large gray zone for PR, and that now seems to be the case, given that Toretsk is falling apart as soon as Kursk was lost.

DeepState clarifies:

Image

Toretsk now looks something like this:

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▪️Lastly, in Kursk a small portion of the final village of Gogolevka is remaining, with reports claiming that Ukraine is pouring reinforcements into it:

Image

The Ukraine-Russia border checkpoint is circled in white for reference.

Wider view:

Image

Circled in yellow is Guevo, which was captured—all that remains is some empty land west of it to the border. Sudzha can be seen at the very top for reference.

Now there are repeated claims that thousands of AFU are surrounded somewhere in Kursk, along with their NATO handlers:

Image
https://ria.ru/20250316/okruzhenie-2005316102.html

They don’t specify where this could possibly be, given that no obvious cauldron or pocket exists there. But Putin himself reportedly issued an ultimatum for remaining Ukrainian forces to surrender or be terminated, so apparently Russia seems to think some Ukrainian contingent is still encircled.

This brings up an important point to mention. There are rumors from fifth columnists and the like that Putin ‘struck a deal with Trump’ to clear out Kursk, and that the AFU’s “sudden” retreat was in fact due to the US pulling their intelligence sharing, which led Russia to rapidly advancing. There are even claims that US supplied Russia intelligence on Ukrainian units in the region, as some AFU sources claim their secret positions and HQs were unexpectedly hit out of the blue.

But this completely ignores the reality of the situation, which is that Russian forces had been slowly creeping up on the AFU’s only supply lines. Particularly after Sverdlokovo was captured in mid-February, Ukraine’s position became considerably more dire as the main Yunakovka-Sudzha road was increasingly placed under fire control. Then as Russian forces advanced from the opposite side to place the remaining parallel MSR under fire control, Ukraine had no choice but to think about rapid retreat.

Propagandists use the fact that Sudzha was won without a major battle as ‘proof’ that some backdoor deal was reached, and Ukraine was allowed to roll back. But if that was the case, why would Russia require the major pipeline operation, which was planned and executed over the course of four long months, to deal the final blow by sneaking behind the Ukrainian lines?

The last bit of claimed ‘proof’ of this conspiracy theory is a video circulating which purports to show a Russian soldier claiming that his unit was given the order to cease all artillery fire, and allow Ukrainian units to pull out of Sudzha. But the top Russian war correspondent channel refuted the video:

Ukrainian propaganda leaked a video: allegedly Russian soldiers were forbidden to attack the Ukrainian Armed Forces fleeing from the Kursk region

This is 100% fake.

To reassure our readers, we interviewed our comrades - officers from the Kursk front from different regiments and brigades.

"This is complete nonsense, we are destroying the Germans day and night without a break," say the military.

Soon there will be new footage of the destruction of equipment and militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

RVvoenkor


As I said, anyone who has actually been following the battlefield map movements would know the AFU had no choice but to rapidly pull out when their only remaining supply routes were effectively cut from both sides. If they hadn’t pulled out “without a fight”, the entire grouping of thousands of men would have been completely trapped in a boiler. That’s not to mention, if a no-shoot order was really given, Ukrainian troops wouldn’t have to try sneaking out of Kursk dressed as civilians.

(Much more at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/boo ... r-conceals

******

The 11th anniversary of Crimea’s returning to Russia: What happened in Crimea during the 25 years leading to the referendum?

Erkin Oncan

March 16, 2025

Crimea’s 2014 referendum cannot be divorced from its historical context: decades of linguistic and political marginalization, NATO expansionism, and the Maidan coup’s aftermath.

Today marks the 11th anniversary of Crimea’s reunification with Russia through a referendum.

On March 16, 2014, 96.77% of Crimeans voted in favor of rejoining the Russian Federation.

This referendum, however, is described in Western media, including Turkish outlets, as the “occupation of Crimea” or the “illegal annexation of Crimea.”

Crimea, Russia, and Ukraine

To understand the 2014 referendum, two critical historical events must be recalled: the 1991 referendum in Crimea and the 2014 Maidan coup in Ukraine.

Starting with the first…

1991 referendum and the Soviet legacy

During the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR), a referendum was held in Crimea on January 20, 1991. With an 81.3% turnout, 93.26% of Crimeans voted to restore the “Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic” status, which had been abolished in 1945, and remain within the USSR.

The Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic was established in 1921. Later, on February 5, 1954, Crimea was transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.

The 1991 referendum was not only about restoring Crimea’s autonomous status but also tied to Mikhail Gorbachev’s final effort, the “New Union Treaty.” Given Ukraine’s push for independence under Leonid Kravchuk, this vote effectively challenged Crimea’s post-1954 status under Ukrainian administration.

A note on Turkic peoples in the USSR

During the 1991 Soviet-wide referendum on preserving the USSR, Turkic-majority republics overwhelmingly supported remaining in the union: Kazakhstan (94%), Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan (93% each), Kyrgyzstan (96%), and Turkmenistan (97%). Within Russia, Tatarstan (87%) and Bashkortostan (85%) also showed strong support. These figures contrast with the USSR-wide average of 71%, highlighting Turkic communities’ preference for Soviet unity.

Key timeline after the 1991 referendum

January 20, 1991: Crimea’s referendum for autonomous status within the USSR.
February 12, 1991: Ukraine’s Supreme Soviet recognizes Crimea as an autonomous republic within Ukraine.
March 17, 1991: USSR-wide referendum; 71% in Ukraine vote to remain in the union.
August 24, 1991: Ukraine declares independence.
December 1, 1991: Ukraine’s independence referendum sees 54% support in Crimea (the lowest in Ukraine).
December 8, 1991: The Belavezha Accords dissolve the USSR, forming the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Crimea’s legal status became contentious. Under Soviet law, Ukraine’s secession required resolving the status of territories acquired after 1922, including Crimea. However, no separate referendum was held, effectively binding Crimea to Ukraine against its 1991 vote.

Post-Soviet tensions and Crimea’s struggle for autonomy

February 26, 1992: Crimea’s parliament renames the region the “Republic of Crimea.”
May 1992: Crimea declares independence, later suspended under Ukrainian pressure.
1994–1995: Pro-Russian politician Yuriy Meshkov’s presidency sparks clashes with Kiev. Ukraine abolishes Crimea’s presidency in 1995, imposing direct control.
1997–2000: Language policies enforcing Ukrainian in public institutions alienate Crimea’s Russian majority.
Ethnic dynamics and geopolitical pressures

Crimea’s population is predominantly ethnic Russian (58.5% in 2001), with Crimean Tatars (12.1%) and Ukrainians (24.3%). Post-Soviet policies marginalizing Russian language and culture fueled separatist sentiments. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and joint military drills with the U.S. heightened tensions.

2014 Maidan coup and Crimea’s response

The Euromaidan protests, culminating in the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014, were met with resistance in Crimea. Pro-Russian groups, fearing marginalization under the new Western-aligned government, organized protests.

On February 27, 2014, armed groups (later termed “little green men”) seized government buildings, leading to the ousting of Ukrainian authorities. A referendum on March 16 saw 96.77% support for joining Russia, with an 83% turnout.

International reactions and legal disputes

The West dismissed the referendum as illegitimate, with the UN General Assembly passing a resolution (100–11–58) affirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity. However, Crimea’s integration into Russia included constitutional guarantees for Crimean Tatars:

Russian, Ukrainian, and Crimean Tatar became official languages.
Reparations and recognition were extended to repressed groups, including Tatars.
Tatar-language schools and cultural institutions were revitalized.

Crimea’s 2014 referendum cannot be divorced from its historical context: decades of linguistic and political marginalization, NATO expansionism, and the Maidan coup’s aftermath. While Western narratives frame it as an “annexation,” Crimeans’ overwhelming vote reflects a desire to realign with Russia, rooted in ethnic ties and geopolitical realities. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine underscores Crimea’s strategic importance in the broader Russia-NATO rivalry.

Turkey’s portrayal of Crimea as “occupied” often overlooks the region’s multiethnic history and the Crimean Tatars’ post-2014 legal protections. This stance aligns with NATO-aligned narratives and historical Turkic-Russian tensions, rather than the nuanced realities of Crimean self-determination.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... eferendum/

******

11 years ago we returned home
colonelcassad
March 18, 10:56

Image


11 years ago we returned home. (Video at link.)


The most popular poster of the referendum was 100% prophetic - the choice was between Russia and a Nazi concentration camp. So the choice was obvious.
SVO is the completion of the work that was not done in 2014.

To all those involved, to all who brought this day closer - Happy Holidays!

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9731345.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

User avatar
blindpig
Posts: 14417
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Mar 19, 2025 11:57 am

A sentence that is too short and comes too late
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/19/2025

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With less than two months to go until the eleventh anniversary of the Odessa massacre, the arson attack that killed 42 people trapped in the burning House of Trade Unions and besieged by the nationalist mob heckling them from Kulikovo Field, the European Court of Human Rights has issued its second ruling that does not focus on blaming the victims. For three years, until September 2017, Ukraine struggled, by delaying proceedings, bending rules, and simply exercising its power, to convict a group of people it accused of provoking the riots that morning that preceded the tragedy that would unfold on the afternoon of May 2. All the defendants in that trial, in which due process was conspicuously lacking, were found not guilty. Two of the defendants, who had spent the entire period between May 2014 and September 2017 in prison, largely due to threats from the local far right that forced the judges to revoke their house arrest orders, were re-arrested in the same courtroom where they had been found innocent. They were then accused of undermining Ukraine's territorial integrity for acts they had participated in in the spring of 2014. With no chance of justice, both were exchanged: Mefedov to Russia, his native country, and Dolzhenkov to Donetsk, handed over as a prisoner of a war he had never seen. In June 2024, Mefedov secured the first conviction against Ukraine in the Odessa case, this time for unlawful detention.

The ruling published last week responds to the lawsuit "concerning the violent clashes between supporters and opponents of the Maidan and the fire at the House of Trade Unions in Odessa on May 2, 2014, which resulted in heavy casualties." The seven lawsuits concern a total of "28 people. 25 of the plaintiffs lost their relatives, either in the clashes or as a result of the fire, and three of the plaintiffs survived the fire with various injuries." "Among the relatives of the plaintiffs who lost their lives that day were supporters and opponents of the Maidan, and possibly just bystanders. Respecting the choice of the plaintiffs, who often preferred not to mention their political views or those of their relatives, the Court only indicated the political views of the individuals concerned when this was essential to establishing and understanding the facts or when, in any case, the plaintiffs themselves had made that information public," states the document published by the Court to present the ruling.

These broad strokes show the framework within which Ukraine's actions have been judged. The Court at no point seeks to determine what happened that day in Odessa, who was responsible for the shooting in the city center, which cost the life, for example, of the leader of the local Praviy Sektor, or who blocked access to the House of Trade Unions, trapping dozens of people in a building at which Molotov cocktails were being thrown. Avoiding the political question, in part because the case included people from both sides, the judgment does not seek to resolve what happened in Odessa that May 2 and, above all, why it happened. Moreover, in the few moments in which it points to the causes of the creation of the conditions under which all political tensions exploded violently, the judgment hides behind the simplest scapegoat: Russian propaganda. Even so, the ruling has been seen as a victory by the victims and their families and has provoked strong condemnation from nationalist groups, who, since May 2, have prided themselves on what happened there and have sabotaged any attempt to honor the victims of that day for years .

The nationalist outrage over the ruling is significant primarily because there is no rational way to ignore the verdict by claiming the Court's pro-Russian bias. To understand this, one need only look at how the preamble frames the events in Odessa within the political developments of the preceding months in Ukraine. "The Maidan protests culminated on February 22, 2014, when President Yanukovych fled to the Russian Federation and was impeached by the Ukrainian Parliament for failing to fulfill his constitutional duties," it states, describing the overthrow of the elected president and his dismissal in a Rada session in which, even with pressure from the Maidan's shock troops, the necessary votes were not obtained to consider the motion of no confidence valid. On the contrary, when describing what happened in Crimea weeks later, the text writes that “at gunpoint, the Supreme Council dismissed the Crimean government, appointed a new ‘Prime Minister,’ and decided to hold a ‘referendum’ on Crimea’s future status. That ‘referendum’ took place on March 16, 2014, and according to the published results, there was overwhelming support for Crimea’s integration into the Russian Federation. On March 18, 2014, Crimea sought to join Russia on that basis. On March 27, 2014, the United Nations General Assembly underscored the invalidity of the aforementioned ‘referendum.’” The referendum is called into question, while Yanukovych simply “walked away.”

“At the end of April 2014, fans of the football clubs Chornomorets from Odessa and Metalist from Kharkiv announced a United Ukraine rally for May 2, 2014, ahead of that afternoon’s match. Participants in the rally were to walk from Soborna Square to the stadium, located 2.5 km east of the starting point (while the tent camp of anti-Maidan activists was about 3 km south). Shortly thereafter, anti-Maidan messages began appearing on social media, describing the event as a Nazi march and calling on the population to prevent it. Intelligence obtained by the Security Service showed indications of possible incitement to violence, clashes, and unrest. The cybercrime unit of the Ministry of the Interior also detected messages on social media evoking mass unrest,” the Court writes, describing the tense situation in the city in a context of "clashes" and always failing to remember that the demonstration and the arrival in the city of thousands of Metalist ultras from Kharkiv were part of the same plan: to wipe out the Kulikovo Field encampment. A camp had been established there for some time, where various groups—some of them Russian nationalists, others communists, members of the Party of Regions, and anarchists—were collecting signatures for a referendum on the federalization of the country. This was sufficient reason for the ruling to simply lump all these different groups under a single label: pro-Russian, a term used since 2014 by Ukraine to demonize and delegitimize any non-nationalist option.

“As soon as the march began to move toward the stadium, anti-Maidan activists approached and attacked the protesters, some shooting at them, without police intervention. Both sides used fireworks and air guns, and threw stones, stun grenades, and Molotov cocktails,” the report continues, admitting that “pro-unity protesters eventually won the clashes and charged the pro-Russian Kulikovo Field camp. The anti-Maidan protesters took refuge in the House of Trade Unions, a five-story building facing the square.” There is no mention of the disproportionate force between attackers and victims, nor, of course, any suggestion that the event was completely planned and that destroying the Kulikovo camp was the main objective of radical nationalism and the Maidan-born government.

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“Maidan activists began setting fire to the shops. A group of pro-Russian protesters on the roof of the Trade Union Building threw Molotov cocktails at the crowd below,” the court added, equating those attacking and those defending themselves with the only tools available to them from a building already under siege. “At 7:45 p.m., a fire broke out in the Trade Union Building,” the text states, without specifying that it was Molotov cocktails thrown from outside that set the Trade Union Building ablaze, its exits blocked. “The building's fire extinguishers weren't working. The police called the fire brigade, but to no avail. Some of the people inside the building, including Mr. Dmitriyev, tried to escape by jumping from the upper windows. He survived the fall and was taken to an ambulance. Several people died in the fall, including Ms. Radzykhovska's son and Ms. Nikitenko's son. Video footage shows pro-unity protesters fashioning makeshift ladders and platforms from a stage in the square and using them to rescue people trapped in the building. Other videos show pro-unity protesters attacking people who had jumped or fallen,” he adds, without specifying that these attempts to rescue people trapped in the burning building took place in the final phase, after hours of siege, when the tragedy was a fait accompli and long after those images of injured people who had left the building and being beaten before the eyes of the nationalist crowd.

When assessing the actions of the Ukrainian authorities, the subject of the complaint, the Court takes into account the political and media situation at the time, always adhering to the Ukrainian version of events. “The Court found that Russian disinformation and propaganda had played a part in the tragic events. The clashes began with an attack by a group of anti-Maidan activists on the pro-unity march under the pretext that the latter had been planning to destroy the Kulykove Pole tent camp, even though they had not deviated from their planned route until they were attacked. This unjustified wave of violence had been preceded by the continuous dissemination of aggressive and emotional disinformation and propaganda messages about the new Ukrainian government and Maidan supporters, disseminated by the Russian authorities and media,” the ruling writes, accepting the Ukrainian claim that Russian propaganda was necessary to perceive the evident polarization and political tension in Odessa and also the laughable excuse that it was the riots that morning that caused the far-right to want to destroy the camp they had been announcing for days that they intended to destroy.



Despite a markedly pro-Ukrainian stance in its analysis of the events, political positions, and circumstances that led to the outbreak of violence, in the face of authorities who remained impassive, the ruling states that "the Court found that, as soon as the authorities became aware of the intelligence information and social media posts, they should have reinforced security in the relevant areas and taken appropriate security measures to detect and eradicate any provocation as quickly as possible and with minimal risk to life. However, nothing was done. On the contrary, the Government admitted that the police authorities ignored the available information and relevant warning signs and prepared for an ordinary football match. No effort was made to send police reinforcements."

Nor was there any significant attempt to prevent the clashes. The Court noted that local prosecutors, law enforcement officials, and military officials had met with the Deputy Attorney General on May 2, 2014, to discuss the ongoing challenges to public order in the region and had apparently been unreachable for much or all of the time. The Court found the attitude and passivity of these officials inexplicable. The dereliction of duty by the authorities took eleven years to be admitted by a court, even though it was evident from May 2, when the images were broadcast in real time.

“The Court found that the negligence attributable to the State officials and authorities went beyond an error of judgment or carelessness,” the ruling states, adding that “the Court concluded that the competent authorities failed to do everything reasonably possible to prevent the violence, to stop it after it broke out, and to ensure timely rescue measures for the persons trapped in the fire at the Trade Union Building. Therefore, there were violations of the substantive aspect of Article 2 of the Convention.”

Ukraine was also responsible for the post-event investigation, and its approach here too is found wanting by the European Court of Human Rights. “The Court found that the investigating authorities did not make sufficient efforts to properly secure, collect, and evaluate all evidence. For example, instead of establishing a police perimeter to protect the affected areas of the city center, the first thing the local authorities did after the events was to dispatch cleaning and maintenance services to the affected areas . The first on-site inspection took place almost two weeks later and produced no significant results. Furthermore, the Trade Union Building had remained freely accessible to the public for 17 days after the events. Serious omissions were also noted in the collection and processing of forensic evidence. Some essential evidence had never been examined, and some examination reports had only recently been issued or were still pending eight years after the events,” writes the Court, which at no point raises the possibility that these negligences were actually intended to conceal evidence of the murder of 42 people.

In a display of naiveté or ignorance, ignoring the fact that a large part of Ukrainian society was not interested in the victims but in defending the guilty, the ruling states that "with regard to the involvement of the victims or their families and public scrutiny, the Court stressed that, due to the seriousness of the events, the right to the truth did not belong only to the victims and their families, but also to the general public, who had the right to know what had happened."

Despite highlighting the authorities' dereliction of duty and describing the limited investigation as lacking independence, "the Court noted that the allegation of a lack of impartiality in the investigation was unfounded. The authorities had been no more diligent in investigating the deaths of pro-Maidan activists than in investigating the deaths of anti-Maidan activists. Furthermore, the Court's extensive criticism of the investigations into the events of May 2, 2014, applied to all applicants, regardless of their political views or those of their deceased relatives." The argument borders on insulting, considering that, as Ukrainian-Canadian scholar Ivan Katchanovski has reported for eleven years, Ukraine has things to hide in the Maidan case as well.

The final judgment brings a new condemnation to Ukraine, in this case for the delay in returning the body of her father, who died at the House of Trade Unions and had already been identified, to one of the plaintiffs. In this case, too, the Court fails to even consider the humiliating treatment suffered by the survivors, some of whom were immediately detained, or by the relatives of those who died in the fire.

"The Court of Justice declares that Ukraine must pay the applicants various amounts for non-material damages and for costs and expenses, as established in the judgment," concludes the ruling, which introduces paltry compensation and comes too late. Despite the timing and the clear omissions in the judgment, this condemnation of Ukraine is the only moral victory to which the survivors and the families of those who lost their lives at the House of Trade Unions in Odessa on May 2, 2014, can aspire.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/19/una-s ... ado-tarde/

Google Translator

Nothing short of Odessa can come close to compensating.

******

From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
⚡️ The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation as of 19 March 2025.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.

In the Belgorod direction, units of the North force grouping inflicted losses on formations of a heavy mechanized brigade, two airborne assault brigades and two assault regiments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Maryino, Petrushevka and Ugroedy in the Sumy region.

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 70 servicemen, three tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles, 11 combat armoured vehicles, three engineering obstacle clearing vehicles, seven cars and four artillery pieces.

Units of the West force grouping improved their tactical situation. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the mechanized and assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Zeleny Gai, Druzhelyubovka in the Kharkiv region and Novoye in the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The enemy's losses amounted to more than 250 servicemen, three armored personnel carriers, including two M113 made in the USA, an armored combat vehicle, nine cars, three field artillery guns and three ammunition depots.

Units of the "Southern" group of forces occupied more advantageous lines and positions. Formations of five mechanized, motorized infantry brigades, a general staff security brigade, an unmanned systems brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a national guard brigade were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Verkhnekamenskoye, Poltavka, Zelenoe Pole, Dzerzhinsk, Novomarkovo, Kramatorsk, Chasov Yar and Ivanopolye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 270 servicemen, a tank, 10 cars and a field artillery gun.

Units of the "Center" group of forces improved their position along the forward edge. Defeat was inflicted on formations of five mechanized, two ranger, assault brigades, an assault regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a marine brigade in the areas of the settlements of Shevchenko, Zverevo, Sribnoye, Elizavetovka, Krasnoarmeysk, Zaporozhye, Udachnoye and Uspenovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The enemy lost up to 465 servicemen, four combat armored vehicles "Kozak", five cars and five artillery pieces.

Units of the group of forces "East" continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense. Defeat was inflicted on formations of a mechanized, airmobile brigades and an assault regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Bogatyr, Fedorovka and Veseloye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 145 servicemen, a combat armored vehicle, four cars and four field artillery pieces.

Units of the Dnepr group of forces inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Pridneprovske, Ponyatovka, Sadovoe and Antonovka in the Kherson region.

- Up to 45 servicemen, a tank, three vehicles and an electronic warfare station were destroyed.

Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups destroyed military airfield infrastructure facilities, unmanned aerial vehicle storage sites, ammunition and military property depots, as well as concentrations of manpower and equipment of the armed formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and foreign mercenaries in 146 districts.

Air defense and electronic warfare systems shot down and suppressed 142 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles, including 61 outside the SVO zone.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed:
- 658 aircraft,
- 283 helicopters,
- 47,353 unmanned aerial vehicles,
- 601 anti-aircraft missile systems,
- 22,344 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
- 1,529 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles,
- 22,700 field artillery pieces and mortars,
- 33,050 units of special military vehicles.

***

Colonelcassad
Russian air defense intercepted 57 Ukrainian drones last night, the Defense Ministry reported.

35 UAVs were shot down over Kursk Oblast, 13 over Oryol Oblast. Another seven drones were destroyed over the Sea of ​​Azov, and one each over Tula and Bryansk Oblasts.

Forwarded from
GRIGORIEV
5:45

🔴 Evidence of the Kiev regime's atrocities in the Kursk region.

View previous evidence

Our International Public Tribunal on Crimes of Ukrainian Neo-Nazis (chaired by M. S. Grigoriev) of civil society representatives from 32 countries continues to collect evidence of the Kiev regime's crimes.

Ukrainian soldiers broke down the door of a church in the center of Sudzha, the territory was destroyed. There is a broken car in the courtyard of the church.

The sign of the well-known Pyaterochka store is covered with inscriptions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including the symbols of the banned nationalist battalion. Slogans such as "Ukraine above all", "Sevastopol is Ukraine", "Crimea is Ukraine" and insults against Russians are everywhere.

During their retreat, Ukrainian troops attacked the local history museum, where memories of the Great Patriotic War and veterans' stories were kept. Almost nothing is left of this.

The community center in the center of Sudzha and the playground are covered with Ukrainian slogans. The inscriptions are in Ukrainian and English — all the walls are defaced. The phrase "Mr. Trump, we don't need peace, we need weapons" clearly shows their intentions.

To be continued

Book "Crimes of the Kiev regime. Materials of the International Public Tribunal on the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis 2023-2024"


https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

THE REAL REASON FOR TRUMP’S CEASEFIRE – INDEPENDENT MILITARY ANALYSIS OF THE KURSK SALIENT BATTLES, MARCH 5-14

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by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with

NATO infantry operations veteran Major (retd) Mark Takacs (lead image) has published an animated map analysis of the battles between Russian and Ukrainian forces around Sudzha, in the Kursk region, between March 5 and 14. Nothing comparable has been reported by the Russian military bloggers; their US copyists; or the Ukrainian and British propaganda agencies.

Without the intention on Takacs’ part, his military analysis reveals the reason for the announcement of the “immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire” on March 11 in Jeddah by the US and Ukrainian delegations, after the plan had been composed by UK and US officials in Kiev over the previous weekend. This is to restore command and control communications with the Ukrainian units still occupying about 20% of the Kursk territory they had taken last August; restore and refill the primary NO7 highway and secondary routes into the Kursk salient for supplies of fresh arms, ammunition and troops; and construct new defence lines and fortifications which had either failed or been missing during the Russian offensive movements of the previous week.

A parallel plan for the salients southward down the line of contact is likely, although Takacs has yet to analyse them. In short, the ceasefire has been proposed to continue the war, not to end it.

“The control of Ukrainian troops inside this incursion zone [Kursk] has been lost,” President Vladimir Putin said on March 13. “At the initial stages, just a week or two ago, Ukrainian servicemen tried to get out of there in small groups. Now it is impossible. They are trying to get out in very small groups of two or three men because everything is under our complete fire control…If this area is physically blocked in the next few days, then no one will be able to leave. There will only be two options: surrender or die. I think in these conditions it would be good for the Ukrainian side to achieve a ceasefire for at least 30 days. We are also in favour of it, but there are nuances. What are they?”

“First, what will we do about the incursion section in the Kursk Region? What would that mean if we cease fire for 30 days? Does this mean that everyone who is in there will just walk out without a fight? Do we have to let them go after they committed numerous heinous crimes against civilians? Or will the Ukrainian leadership issue a command for them to lay down their arms and just surrender? How will this happen? It is not clear.”

In his week-long record of the Kursk battlefield, Takacs corroborates Putin’s description that the Ukrainian forces have been cut off by successful Russian military operations. But Takacs indicates that despite the disruption of their communications and their supply routes, they have been able to hold on to their positions despite Russian air superiority, drone and artillery fire control, and a five to one numerical superiority of infantrymen.

Takacs also reveals he has found no evidence that the Ukrainian operations were adversely affected by the Washington press release announcing the “pause” in US intelligence sharing with the Ukrainian forces starting on March 5, and ending with the press release of resumption on March 11.

Earlier, on March 4, Takacs reported he was taking the pause seriously: “Much of the minute-accurate tactical intelligence data (0-20/30 km deep behind the enemy’s perimeter) comes from US technical intelligence sources. Of course, the Ukrainians also operate tactical reconnaissance systems, but mainly they cannot see into the areas behind the Russian brigades and beyond to the depth of the division without the Americans. This is a problem because Russian operations can be predicted by 12-36 hours (so even the often mentioned shift-of-gravity attack method can be avoided) if there is accurate information about these terrain sections. If this is not the case, then the Ukrainian defence will be at a significant disadvantage.”

His subsequent assessment records no US pause, no Ukrainian disadvantage.

Another NATO campaign veteran comments on Takacs’s report: “There’s no mention of the supposed American support cut-off as a contributory factor in the Ukrainian defeat. Instead, we can see that on the Russian side, superior electronic warfare, persistent and patient preparation over several months, tactical surprise, and bravery (the Pipe Operation), and Ukrainian negligence are given credit for the Russian victory.”

The Takacs report also raises a question which Russian analysts and their American copyists have been reluctant to ask: why, with overwhelming air, ground and firepower superiority against the Ukrainians, and the months-long preparation of the operational plans, has the Russian offensive been so slow?

Watch the 20-minute Takacs video by clicking here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3EaarFrUYo

Takacs explains he has served as an officer in the Hungarian Army up to the rank of major when he resigned in April 2024. His experience included five years of mechanized infantry field operations and five years as a military academy trainer of officers at the battalion and brigade levels. For rank and field experience compared to US military bloggers on the Ukraine war, Takacs is the equal of Major Scott Ritter; he is junior to Colonel Douglas Macgregor; he outranks Andrei Martyanov and the pseudonymous army NCO Simplicius.

https://johnhelmer.net/the-real-reason- ... arch-5-14/

******

Sudzha. Anatomy of a Ragrom
March 18, 7:15 PM

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Sudzha. Anatomy of defeat.

The video shows a broken column of armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Sudzha-Guyevo-Gornali highway, one of the most important supply arteries of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in the Kursk region.
The effective work of the FPV drone operators of the Rubicon ICPT ( https://t.me/icpbtrubicon ) on enemy communications ensured the crisis and collapse of the enemy's bridgehead.

(Video at link.)

We thank the authors of the Telegram channel "SvinoREZ" ( https://t.me/PubgWithoutSaving ) for the provided video - current pilots of fiber-optic FPV drones "KVN", performing tasks to clear the Kursk land of the enemy.

Destroyed armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the frame:
00:07 - BMC Kirpi ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56695 )
00:10 - Kozak-2 ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56696 )
00:14 - VAB ( https://lostarmour.info/armour/56293 )
00:14 - Bushmaster PMV ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/55820 )
01:04 - Roshel Senator ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56777 )
01:07 - T-64BV ( https://lostarmour.info/armour/48991 )
01:07 - T-72 ( https://lostarmour.info/armour/48990 )
01:31 - T-72 ( https://lostarmour.info/armour/56779 )
01:33 - Panthera T6 ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56780 )
02:45 - BMC Kirpi II ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56360 )
02:47 - M577 ( https://lostarmour.info/armour/56781 )
02:49 - Kozak-2M1 ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56782 )
02:52 - BATT UMG ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56357 )
02:54 - HMMWV ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56434 )
02:54 - M1126 "Stryker" ( https://lostarmour.info/armour/56355 )
02:58 - Innovator ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56783 )
03:09 - Bushmaster PMV ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56356 )
03:23 - BMC Kirpi II ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56784 )
03:38 - International MaxxPro ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56787 )
04:23 - M577 ( https://lostarmour.info/armour/56788 )
04:34 - M577 ( https://lostarmour.info/armour/56789 )
04:34 - Titan-S ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56790 )
04:47 - Kozak-7 ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56791 )
06:02 - HMMWV ( https://lostarmour.info/mraps/56792 )

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9732425.html

American trophies
March 18, 16:52

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Another captured Abrams.
This one suffered much more. It is located near the recently liberated Zaoleshenka in Kursk Oblast.
Previously, it belonged to the 47th separate mechanized brigade, which left at least 3 Abrams and about 20 Bradley IFVs in Kursk Oblast, some of which were captured by the Russian Armed Forces.

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Image

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The collection of trophies continues. Judging by the video, there are 30-35 light armored vehicles alone.

Online broadcast of the military operations in Ukraine is as usual here https://t.me/boris_rozhin (if you are interested, subscribe)

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9732305.html

We talked
March 18, 20:31

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The full text of the Kremlin's message following Vladimir Putin's telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump.

The leaders continued a detailed and frank exchange of views on the situation around Ukraine. Vladimir Putin expressed gratitude to Donald Trump for his desire to help achieve the noble goal of ending hostilities and human losses.

Having confirmed his fundamental commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, the Russian President declared his readiness to thoroughly work out possible ways of settlement together with his American partners, which should be comprehensive, sustainable and long-term. And, of course, to take into account the absolute need to eliminate the root causes of the crisis, Russia's legitimate interests in the field of security.

In the context of the US President's initiative to introduce a 30-day truce, the Russian side outlined a number of significant points regarding ensuring effective control over a possible ceasefire along the entire line of contact, the need to stop forced mobilization in Ukraine and rearm the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Serious risks associated with the inability to negotiate of the Kiev regime, which has repeatedly sabotaged and violated the agreements reached, were also noted. Attention was drawn to the barbaric terrorist crimes committed by Ukrainian militants against the civilian population of the Kursk region.

It was emphasized that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working towards its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be the complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kiev.

In connection with Donald Trump's recent appeal to save the lives of Ukrainian servicemen surrounded in the Kursk region, Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Russian side is ready to be guided by humanitarian considerations and, in the event of surrender, guarantees the lives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers and decent treatment in accordance with Russian laws and international law.

During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to the conflict to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding command.

The Russian President also responded constructively to Donald Trump's idea of ​​implementing a well-known initiative regarding the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. It was agreed to begin negotiations to further elaborate specific details of such an agreement.

Vladimir Putin informed that on March 19, a prisoner exchange will be carried out between the Russian and Ukrainian sides - 175 for 175 people. In addition, as a gesture of goodwill, 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian servicemen who are being treated in Russian medical institutions will be transferred.

The leaders confirmed their intention to continue efforts to achieve a Ukrainian settlement in a bilateral mode, including taking into account the above-mentioned proposals of the US President. For this purpose, Russian and American expert groups are being created.

* * *

Also.

1. Putin confirmed to Trump that the Russian Federation guarantees the life and decent treatment of Ukrainian military personnel in the event of their surrender in the Kursk region.
2. The White House reported that the Russian Federation and the United States are immediately starting negotiations in the Middle East on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.
3. The Kremlin reported that Trump and Putin approved the idea of ​​​​a hockey match between the NHL and KHL teams. Apparently, this will be the first match of this level in 3 years without neutral flags.
4. The Trump administration said that huge shifts (in a positive direction) await future economic relations between the US and Russia. And the relations will move towards "stability."

* * *

Well, and a comment from the Trump administration.

Today, President Trump and President Putin spoke about the need for peace and a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. The two leaders agreed that this conflict must end with a lasting peace. They also emphasized the need for improved bilateral relations between the United States and Russia. The blood and treasure that Ukraine and Russia are spending on this war would be better spent on the needs of their people.

This conflict should never have started and should have been ended long ago by sincere and good-faith peace efforts. The leaders agreed that the path to peace would begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations to implement a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea, a full ceasefire, and a permanent peace. These negotiations would begin immediately in the Middle East.

The leaders spoke broadly of the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts. They also discussed the need to stop the proliferation of strategic weapons and would work with others to ensure their widest possible use. Both leaders shared the view that Iran should never be able to destroy Israel.

Both leaders agreed that a future with improved bilateral relations between the United States and Russia has great potential. This includes huge economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace is achieved.


https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9732790.html

Fulfilment of agreements
March 19, 13:07

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The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that during the night strikes, the Russian Armed Forces shot down 7 of their drones that were heading for an energy facility in the Nikolaev region. As part of the implementation of the agreement between Trump and Putin.

Meanwhile, the cocaine Fuhrer whines that after the conversation between Trump and Putin, 150 drones flew into Ukraine.

If anything, all this happened in one night.

P.S. The photo shows a destroyed hospital in Sumy, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers who were lucky enough to escape from the Kursk region were taken. Seven Geraniums flew into it at night.

Image

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9733580.html

Google Translator

******

Attempt to break through the border again in the Belgorod region
March 18, 2025
Rybar

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On the eve of the talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian troops, as expected, attempted to make another breakthrough across the border, this time in the Belgorod region .

What is known as of 12:00 18 March 2025
The previous evening, the enemy began a massive shelling of the Krasnoyarsk region , simultaneously conducting aerial reconnaissance of the area and mining roads near border settlements. The activity of drones has increased significantly.

Near Grafovka , one of the service buses was blown up by an explosive device, several local residents were injured while getting to their place of work. Drones also attacked a truck and a passenger car, and in Krasnaya Yaruga , a UAV fell near a backup transformer, causing a fire.

According to rather contradictory information from the field, at the current moment it is known that the enemy has deployed about fifteen armored vehicles, two IMRs and two tanks. At least one tank has already been declared destroyed.

The number of manpower and equipment deployed at the current moment is comparable to earlier attempts by sabotage and reconnaissance groups to penetrate, but during the operation in the Kursk region more than six months ago, much larger forces were thrown into the battle.

The Ukrainian command may act similarly this time: either attempt to break through the defense of the Russian Armed Forces in other areas of the front with relatively small attacks, or distract attention in order to attempt a massive breakthrough. Moreover, at least some of the assault units withdrawn from the Kursk region have “settled” in the area of ​​Ugroedy , as well as other border settlements near both the Kursk region and the neighboring Bryansk and Belgorod regions .

https://rybar.ru/popytka-novogo-proryva ... j-oblasti/

Civilian Observer Mission: Has the OSCE Experience Learned Nothing?
March 18, 2025
Rybar

Image

Yesterday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko gave an interview to the Izvestia newspaper regarding the situation in the so-called Ukraine, the prospects for dialogue with the West and a possible peace after the SVO.

The deputy minister spoke on many issues, including the topic of peacekeepers in the event of a cessation of hostilities. He noted that peacekeeping and NATO are incompatible and stated that the option with unarmed observers is more acceptable.

As Grushko rightly said, so far all this talk is just hot air without any real outlines. Our leadership sees the end of the war in its own way, the Americans are trying to impose theirs, and Europe generally wants a truce without Russia's participation.

But in the issue of civilian observers, there are also certain nuances. Before the SVO, observers from the OSCE operated on the demarcation line in Donbas . They were also a civilian mission, but they performed their duties only in one direction.

The OSCE staff conducted reconnaissance with their drones, reported on the location of the DPR and LPR troops to the Ukrainian side and turned a blind eye to the shelling of civilians in Donbass by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At the same time, if there was return fire, they immediately reported it.

For this reason, a civilian mission is not a panacea either. We have all experienced this before, not only in the Donbass example, but also in other conflict zones. The most recent one is the activity of EU observers on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan . EU employees were always absent where there was some incident, but they were treated like honey at Russian bases and the Iranian border.

https://rybar.ru/grazhdanskaya-missiya- ... e-nauchil/

Google Translator

******

Trump and Putin Agree To A Limited Ceasefire After 3 Hour Phone Call
March 18, 2025


YouTube link to Kim Iversen’s analysis here.

Kremlin’s statement on Trump-Putin Phone call, Kremlin website, 3/18/25

The leaders continued a detailed and frank exchange of views on the situation around Ukraine. Vladimir Putin expressed gratitude to Donald Trump for his desire to help achieve the noble goal of ending hostilities and human losses.

Having confirmed his fundamental commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, the Russian President declared his readiness to thoroughly work out possible ways of settlement together with his American partners, which should be comprehensive, sustainable and long-term. And, of course, to take into account the absolute need to eliminate the root causes of the crisis, Russia’s legitimate interests in the field of security.

In the context of the US President’s initiative to introduce a 30-day truce, the Russian side outlined a number of significant points regarding ensuring effective control over a possible ceasefire along the entire line of combat contact, the need to stop forced mobilization in Ukraine and rearm the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Serious risks associated with the inability to negotiate of the Kyiv regime, which has repeatedly sabotaged and violated the agreements reached, were also noted. Attention was drawn to the barbaric terrorist crimes committed by Ukrainian militants against the civilian population of the Kursk region.

It was emphasized that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working towards its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv.

In connection with Donald Trump’s recent appeal to save the lives of Ukrainian servicemen surrounded in the Kursk region, Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Russian side is ready to be guided by humanitarian considerations and, in the event of surrender, guarantees the lives and decent treatment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers in accordance with Russian laws and international law.

During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to the conflict to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding order.

The Russian President also responded constructively to Donald Trump’s idea of ​​implementing a well-known initiative concerning the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. It was agreed to begin negotiations to further elaborate specific details of such an agreement.

Vladimir Putin informed that on March 19, the Russian and Ukrainian sides will exchange prisoners – 175 for 175 people. In addition, as a gesture of goodwill, 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian servicemen who are being treated in Russian medical institutions will be transferred.

The leaders confirmed their intention to continue efforts to achieve a Ukrainian settlement in a bilateral mode, including taking into account the above-mentioned proposals of the US President. For this purpose, Russian and American expert groups are being created.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump also touched upon other issues on the international agenda, including the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea region. Joint efforts will be made to stabilize the situation in crisis areas, establish cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation and global security issues. This, in turn, will contribute to improving the overall atmosphere of Russian-American relations. One positive example is the joint vote in the UN on the resolution regarding the Ukrainian conflict.

Mutual interest in normalizing bilateral relations was expressed in light of the special responsibility of Russia and the United States for ensuring security and stability in the world. In this context, a wide range of areas in which our countries could establish cooperation was considered. A number of ideas were discussed that are moving towards the development of mutually beneficial cooperation in the economy and energy sector in the future.

Donald Trump supported Vladimir Putin’s idea to organize hockey matches in the United States and Russia between Russian and American players playing in the NHL and KHL.

The presidents agreed to remain in contact on all issues raised.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/03/tru ... hone-call/

Well, Putin didn't give up much, cessation of attacks on Ukraine's energy, already on the verge of collapse, will earn credit with the Chinese and take pressure off Russian energy, which while the damage has not been consequential to the war effort is still expensive and bad PR. Unloading those sick Ukes is another minor cost reduction. We can count on The Clown to keep the ground war going through his existential intransigence. Odessa!
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Mar 20, 2025 11:52 am

Multi-party negotiation
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/20/2025

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“President Donald Trump appears far more willing to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine than Russian President Vladimir Putin. That's the obvious conclusion from the two leaders' two-hour call Tuesday,” wrote David Ignatius, one of the outlet's star columnists, in The Washington Post yesterday . “I don't believe a word Trump and Putin say about Ukraine,” headlined Thomas Friedman in The New York Times . In September 2023, during a 72-hour trip that didn't leave Kyiv, he understood everything he needed to know about the country and the conflict. “Ukraine is a game-changer for the West, for better or worse, depending on the outcome of the war. Its integration one day into the European Union and NATO would constitute a power shift that could rival the fall of the Berlin Wall and German unification,” the columnist wrote at the time, with no sense of hyperbole.

Three years after the start of a war whose fundamental cause is a relic of the Cold War, NATO, which lost its raison d'être with the disappearance of the Soviet Union, the abuses of history to justify the current position are still the order of the day. “As Monica Duffy Toft, a professor of international politics at Tufts University, recently wrote in Foreign Affairs , ‘the current geopolitical landscape bears a striking resemblance to that of the end of World War II’ because ‘the major powers are trying to negotiate a new world order largely among themselves, much as the Allied leaders did when they redrew the map of the world’ at Yalta,” The New York Times stated yesterday , failing to notice that the current unipolar world, the rearmament of some European powers against others, and the war in a peripheral area of ​​the continent more closely resembles the years leading up to the First World War than the political, geopolitical, or military context after the Second.

The analogy appears these days in the media both to describe the potentially catastrophic consequences of a possible withdrawal or defeat of Ukraine and to deny that any progress has been made. “In short, it wasn't a telephone version of Yalta, despite the hubbub that preceded the call. It highlighted the differences more than the agreements. And this first round confirmed what the intelligence services had predicted to me: that Putin hasn't given up his desire to dominate kyiv. He hopes to gain in negotiations what he hasn't been able to on the battlefield,” David Ignatius concluded, with no particular interest in analyzing the facts beyond their most superficial layer.

The more than two-hour telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, the second between the two leaders, had raised expectations that were practically impossible to meet. The fact that it followed an extensive meeting between the Russian president and Steve Witkoff, the White House envoy for the Middle East and arguably the most important person in the US-Russia negotiations, suggested that some kind of announcement could be forthcoming. Days earlier, in a highly publicized meeting in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and the United States had agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, which they demanded Moscow accept. As kyiv and its European allies had repeatedly stated, the Russian Federation should abide by the temporary ceasefire order without an established plan to proceed with negotiations that would work toward an unconditional conclusion to the war.

Ukraine and European countries were preparing the ground to insist on Russian unwillingness should Vladimir Putin fail to announce his acceptance of the ceasefire during his conversation with Trump, or on Russian weakness should Moscow agree to abide by a temporary cessation of violence under terms it had not participated in the negotiation. To these two options, Western media sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause had added a third: that Putin's refusal to follow orders was further proof of Donald Trump's weakness for the Russian president, evidence that Donald Trump has switched sides , is willing to abandon Ukraine, or that he is willing to reach a bilateral agreement with Vladimir Putin in which Ukraine and the European Union would be silent guests in the staging of his abandonment by their main ally.

“Trump Fails to Get Putin to Stop Shooting,” headlined Politico , adding that “Russia insists on terms for ending the war that mean the end of democratic Ukraine, and has followed Trump’s call with an assault on Kyiv.” The outlet didn’t bother to explain how democratic Ukraine will disappear because of the terms ultimately announced, choosing not to add that the airstrikes the following night were mutual and that Ukraine also attacked energy infrastructure in the Russian Federation. The article preferred to focus on Trump’s inability to achieve his goal, beaten by the wily Vladimir Putin, a recurring theme in articles analyzing the results of the conversation between the two presidents.

The White House and the Kremlin announced, in statements that were marked by some differences, that a partial ceasefire was proposed, specifically on energy infrastructure. In addition, the statements speak of working toward a truce in the Black Sea and promoting freedom of navigation. The type of ceasefire and the hypothetical inclusion of the sea in it make the agreement between the United States and Russia more similar to the proposal kyiv brought to Jeddah—a ceasefire in the air and at sea, but not on land—than the one Ukraine was ultimately forced to accept.

Over the following days, Russia worked to reinsert itself into the negotiations without alienating, upsetting, or offending Donald Trump, thus avoiding being seen as an obstacle to peace. Despite certain similarities with the Ukrainian proposal, the agreement between the Kremlin and the White House also includes an important aspect that Russia has insisted on: that the ceasefire be a first step on an established path to a final negotiation that seeks to resolve the conflict and its underlying causes. Russia's refusal to unconditionally accept a 30-day ceasefire, which, following Ukraine's defeat at Kursk, would not have been a sign of weakness and would have given Russia—and also Ukraine—time to transfer units to the front lines in Donbas, is an attempt to avoid repeating the mistakes of the Minsk process. Those seven years made it clear that a ceasefire is unviable without a political framework to support it. Only a continuation of direct or mediated negotiations between Russia and Ukraine can make a genuine ceasefire possible.

The partial ceasefire proposal announced after the conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin also reflects the nature of the war. Ukraine was forced to accept the proposal put forward by the White House even though it ran counter to what it had stated for weeks: that there could be no ceasefire without security guarantees. Ukraine's dependence on US arms supplies and, above all, intelligence, withheld precisely to pressure Kiev, made it impossible for Ukraine to deny the will of its main patron. Russia is not economically isolated, as the West expected, but it is militarily alone. Russia must provide the necessary materiel for war itself, either through its own production or commercial acquisition. This autonomy and Russia's manifest ability to equip its army with the necessary materiel to continue fighting give Russia a resilience that Ukraine lacks. There is no major supplier capable of giving Moscow the order to continue fighting or to stop the war, as is the case with kyiv, which is unable to wage war without US support. The outcome of the telephone conversation and the modification of the ceasefire proposal reflect that situation.

Yesterday, Donald Trump informed Volodymyr Zelensky of the content of the call with Vladimir Putin in a conversation that the US president, who continues to insist he has put the conflict on the path to peace, described as excellent. The Ukrainian reaction to the Russian—or Russian-American—counterproposal was exactly the same as the Russian reaction to the Ukrainian-American proposal: to continue negotiating. Throughout yesterday, during which it was confirmed that the exchange of 350 soldiers (175 for 175) has already taken place, with Russia including, as a gesture of goodwill, another 22 seriously wounded Ukrainian soldiers, Ukraine introduced new proposals, a list of infrastructure to be included in the list of targets for the partial ceasefire. However, when it came down to it, Ukraine could not help but demonstrate its willingness to comply with the mutual agreement not to attack energy facilities. By then, Trump had introduced another element. In addition to Ukraine's mineral resources, the United States is also interested in Ukraine's electricity supply. Trump stated that "the United States could be of great help in managing these plants." "American ownership of these plants could be the best protection for Ukraine's infrastructure and support for its energy infrastructure," he declared. Evidently, the US president is not referring to the destroyed power plants, but to those still standing, namely the Soviet-era nuclear plants.

The talks, both seeking to consolidate a temporary ceasefire and moving toward political negotiations, continue. The next meeting between Russia and the United States will take place next Sunday, March 23, in Saudi Arabia, when the Yalta analogy will likely resurface.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/20/negoc ... as-bandas/


Google Translator

******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Zaporizhia direction: Advancement of Russian troops and combat operations on the approaches to Lobkovoe Active combat operations continue

in the Zaporizhia direction , with the main focus on the advancement of Russian troops in the Stepovoye and Lobkovoe area. Amid intensified clashes on the approaches to Lobkovoe, Russian troops are successfully expanding their zone of control, which is an important step in strengthening their positions.

Units of the Russian Armed Forces continue to advance north from Stepovoye and south to Lobkovoe . Intensive combat clashes are taking place on the approaches to Lobkovoe . During offensive operations, Russian troops actively use artillery support, as well as assault units to increase pressure on the enemy's defenses . These actions are of great strategic importance, since expanding control in this sector significantly strengthens the front lines.

Russian troops are conducting assault operations in the Malye Shcherbaki-Shcherbaki area , which has allowed them to significantly expand their control in this sector. These successes are important for the further advance towards Orekhovo and control over key communications. Tactical successes in this area also contribute to weakening the enemy's positions and create conditions for subsequent offensive operations.

Units of the Russian Armed Forces have advanced to Novodanilovka , where combat operations continue near the village. In this area, Russian troops are widely using armored vehicles and air support to suppress the defensive positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This advance is part of a larger plan to liberate a strategically important region and strengthen control in this direction.

Current combat successes in the Zaporizhzhya direction are of great importance for changing the operational situation in the region. Expanding control in the area of ​​Malye Shcherbaki-Shcherbaki and advancing to Lobkovoe give Russian troops strategic advantages, facilitating a further offensive in the direction of Orekhovo. The enemy continues to resist, but the current actions of Russian troops demonstrate a successful expansion of the control zone and preparation for possible new attacks.

@don_partizan

***

Colonelcassad
During the night attacks, the Russian Air Defense Forces shot down 132 enemy drones.
In the Saratov Region, a local oil refinery and houses located near the airfield in Engels were damaged.

In Engels, as a result of the UAV attack, about 30 private and summer houses in several SNTs were also damaged. The regional security department is already working on the scene. Some residents have sought medical assistance.

The district administration has been tasked with reaching out to every citizen whose property was damaged. Find out what kind of assistance is needed in order to work out the issue of financial support.

For safety reasons, due to a fire on the territory of the airfield, residents of the SNTs near the facility are being evacuated. All emergency services are on site."

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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'Historic' Putin-Trump Call is Small Step for Man, but No Giant Leap for Mankind
Simplicius
Mar 18, 2025

The long awaited discussion between Putin-Trump has finally taken place, reportedly clocking in at a historic two-and-a-half hours, which according to some sources is the longest call between an American and Russian president since at least the Cold War.

As expected, it was another nothing-burger, with Putin essentially repeating precisely the same talking points as have already been conveyed time and again to the US, most recently during Witkoff’s Moscow visit last week.

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Essentially, Putin again inquired as to how a proposed 30-day ceasefire would be enforced, a question he had already raised to Witkoff—which still appears to have no clear answer.

During Trump call, Putin has raised Russian concerns about a ceasefire: strict controls are needed, as well as a HALT to Ukraine’s forced mobilization & rearming Putin emphasized that Kiev's history of constantly breaking deals and terrorism has also to be taken into account

But the most important points are noted above: Ukraine’s mobilization must be halted, as must military supplies to Ukraine. Putin knows both of these are essentially red lines for Zelensky, which means the two sides are no closer to seeing eye-to-eye. To keep Trump from embarrassment, Putin offered a courteous sop or two in the form a minor prisoner exchange, and the release of a few ‘badly wounded’ AFU servicemen—a drain on Russian resources anyway. This gesture serves no other purpose than to give Trump some room to save face and pretend that “things are moving ahead.”

It allows the press to print positive spin about the negotiations, like so:

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The same goes for Putin’s acquiescence to a 30-day ceasefire on energy strikes which, as noted above, Ukraine ‘has to agree to’.

As one prominent Ukrainian analyst put it:

The agreement is essentially the same: they don’t hit our energy sector for 30 days, we obviously don’t hit their oil refineries.

These conditions are clearly not in our favor.


Ukraine has little left to strike in terms of energy systems, as much of their infrastructure now appears held up by mobile generators imported from Europe.

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Russian refineries, on the other hand, have continued to be gored by Ukrainian drones and missiles, as seen most recently by the Tuapse refinery hit two days ago. As such, a cessation of such strikes seems to favor Russia in the short term. That is particularly the case since we’re now moving out of winter, and the ‘dark winter campaign’ of electric grid strikes will no longer be necessary for the time being. Also, it should be noted that Putin may have agreed to this merely for appearance’s sake, knowing that Zelensky himself will reject the offer, which would be a double win, as Russia will look like it at least tried, and can then continue strikes.

Either way, various claims immediately emerged that the ‘ceasefire’ had already turned to naught:

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Hours later videos emerged of a reported hit on a Russian oil refinery in Krasnodar as well.

Here’s the full text of the corresponding Kremlin readout for reference:

The leaders continued a detailed and frank exchange of views on the situation around Ukraine. Vladimir Putin expressed gratitude to Donald Trump for his desire to help achieve the noble goal of ending hostilities and human losses.

Having confirmed his fundamental commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, the Russian President declared his readiness to thoroughly work out possible ways of settlement together with his American partners, which should be comprehensive, sustainable and long-term. And, of course, to take into account the absolute need to eliminate the root causes of the crisis, Russia's legitimate interests in the field of security.

In the context of the US President's initiative to introduce a 30-day truce, the Russian side outlined a number of significant points regarding ensuring effective control over a possible ceasefire along the entire line of contact, the need to stop forced mobilization in Ukraine and rearm the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Serious risks associated with the inability to negotiate of the Kiev regime, which has repeatedly sabotaged and violated the agreements reached, were also noted. Attention was drawn to the barbaric terrorist crimes committed by Ukrainian militants against the civilian population of the Kursk region.

It was emphasized that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working towards its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kiev.

In connection with Donald Trump's recent appeal to save the lives of Ukrainian servicemen surrounded in the Kursk region, Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Russian side is ready to be guided by humanitarian considerations and, in the event of surrender, guarantees the lives and decent treatment of the AFU soldiers in accordance with Russian laws and international law.

During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to the conflict to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding order.

The Russian President also responded constructively to Donald Trump's idea of ​​implementing a well-known initiative concerning the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. It was agreed to begin negotiations to further elaborate specific details of such an agreement.

Vladimir Putin informed that on March 19, the Russian and Ukrainian sides will exchange prisoners - 175 for 175 people. In addition, as a gesture of goodwill, 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian servicemen who are being treated in Russian medical institutions will be transferred.

The leaders confirmed their intention to continue efforts to achieve a Ukrainian settlement in a bilateral mode, including taking into account the above-mentioned proposals of the US President. For this purpose, Russian and American expert groups are being created.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump also touched upon other issues on the international agenda, including the situation in the ME and the Red Sea region. Joint efforts will be made to stabilize the situation in crisis areas, establish cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation and global security. This, in turn, will contribute to improving the overall atmosphere of Russian-American relations. One positive example is the joint vote in the UN on the resolution regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Mutual interest in normalizing bilateral relations was expressed in light of the special responsibility of Russia and the United States for ensuring security and stability in the world. In this context, a wide range of areas in which our countries could establish cooperation was considered. A number of ideas were discussed that go towards developing mutually beneficial cooperation in the economy and energy sector in the long term.


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As you can see, Putin brought up all the previous points and made not even the slightest downgrade or revision to the terms. If before the Trump team were ignori[/img]ng Putin’s demands as I had railed about, now Trump must surely understand them without exception. As such, the ball is directly in his court now, and it is up to him to decide whether he wants to force Kiev into bending to those terms, or escalate in a war of aggression against Russia.

There’s some indication from his Treasury secretary Scott Bessent that it may be the latter, disappointing option: (Video at link.)

Note he says that Trump’s new plan to bolster the US Dollar as reserve currency is not to end sanctions, but rather to make them far stronger than ever before.

We can now see that Russia is not budging in the negotiations, and is merely repeating to the Trump team the same thing it has been trying to convey to the West since either the NATO letter of December 2021, or the Istanbul agreement of April 2022, or at the minimum since Putin’s various statements of 2024; except now, the demands are growing, with newly recognized lands added to the mix.

As such, NYT reports Zelensky’s aides now fear that Trump will end up giving away Odessa as well:

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https://archive.ph/erIJB

This was particularly the case given the phone call with Putin partly touched on ‘Black Sea port security’, though no details were provided.

In the end, we are no closer to any agreement. Not only does US not currently have the ability to hand over to Russia its main demands, but Kiev itself has drawn the red line on many of them, including demilitarization, recognition of annexed territories, etc. Trump currently has no leverage over Kiev given that he’s decided to continue arming Ukraine, which will prolong the conflict. That means the war must continue as it is, and Russia’s conditions will be revisited at some time in the future when Ukraine is forced into a more dire condition.

Ukrainians themselves now have 2026 set in their sights as a kind of magical year after which Russia will begin losing its advantages. This is not only from the standpoint of the Democrats potentially coming to power in the midterms, but also along what Budanov explains: (Video at link.)

He claims to have secret intelligence that Russia must finish the conflict by 2026, or its “chances of becoming a superpower” are diminished due to a variety of culminating factors. Russia, for its part, is certainly not acting like this is the case, given that Putin is proceeding with utmost patience and leisurely determination—if such a thing exists. Russia does not appear in any hurry—to the contrary, it’s difficult to realistically argue the case for Ukraine being in a better position in 2026, no matter what kind of funding is disbursed to it from the EU.

As an interesting aside, earlier in the day, just as Putin and Trump were getting ready to have their historic call, Zelensky launched an attempted incursion of the Belgorod region, hoping to turn it into another ‘embarrassing’ sting like in Kursk. The intent was clearly to sink the negotiations, and signal to the world Ukraine ‘still has cards’ by now occupying a different part of Russia. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the assault failed, with large losses: (Video at link.)

‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kyiv attempted to wedge units into the Belgorod region to create a negative background around the negotiations between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States — the Ministry of Defense

▪️During the day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out five attacks, involving up to 200 Ukrainian militants, 5 tanks, 16 armored fighting vehicles, 3 engineering mine clearance vehicles, a UR-77 remote mine clearance system and four vehicles.

▪️Through the actions of the units covering the state border, all attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repelled and no crossing of the Russian border was allowed.

▪️Total losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to 60 people, a tank, 7 armored fighting vehicles, 3 engineering vehicles and a car. The remaining militants were dispersed, the enemy refused to make further attacks.

▪️30 air and missile strikes, as well as 13 army aviation strikes, an Iskander missile system strike and a Tornado-S MLRS strike, and two TOS strikes were carried out on Ukrainian Armed Forces concentration sites in the 8-10 kilometer zone in Sumy Oblast. 40 UMPK FAB-500 aerial bombs were used. The enemy suffered significant losses.

RVvoenkor


(More at link.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/his ... l-is-small

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Will Russia Expand Its Ground Campaign Into Sumy, Dniepropetrovsk, And/Or Kharkov Regions?
Andrew Korybko
Mar 19, 2025

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This might be the only way to ensure Ukraine’s demilitarization if diplomacy fails.

The nascent Russian-US “New Détente” didn’t lead to a ceasefire during the latest Putin-Trump call, thus meaning that the hot phase of the Ukrainian Conflict continues, albeit with a proposed cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure provided that Kiev agrees. At present, Russia is on the brink of completely pushing Ukrainian forces out of Russia’s Kursk Region and into Ukraine’s Sumy Region, while the southwestern Donbass front has seen Russian troops approach the gates of Dniepropetrovsk Region.

Putin will soon be faced with the fateful choice of either keeping Russia’s ground campaign limited to those four former Ukrainian regions that voted to join Russia in September 2022’s referenda or expanding it to include Sumy, Dniepropetrovsk, and/or (once again) Kharkov Regions. The second scenario is attractive is because it could enable Russia to go around frontline defenses in Donbass and/or Zaporozhye and thus advance its goal of fully capturing the entirety of the regions that it claims.

The precedent for doing so rests in last May’s push into Kharkov, which aimed to achieve in Donbass what the abovementioned Dniepropetrovsk push could achieve in Zaporozhye, but it quickly stalemated and didn’t achieve the intended goal. The battlefield conditions have changed quite a lot since then so perhaps even a push into Sumy Region, which is much further away from the disputed territories, could have a chance of setting into motion a domino effect if it’s only just comparatively more successful.

Ditto for if Russia simultaneously advances into all three – Sumy, Kharkov, and Dniepropetrovsk Regions – but doing so, or even just significantly advancing into one of them, risks making Trump mistakenly think that Putin was just buying time with their talks and isn’t sincere about peace. That perception might then prompt an overreaction that could see him strictly enforcing secondary sanctions on Russian energy in order to deal a heavy financial blow to the Kremlin and/or pulling out all the stops in arming Ukraine.

Nevertheless, “hardliners” might still try to persuade Putin to risk that on the presumption that Trump is bluffing about “escalating to de-escalate” if their talks fail, but that’ll be difficult to pull off since Putin is the consummate pragmatist and thus averse to taking major risks. That said, they might get him to act more boldly then usual by arguing that further on-the-ground gains might be what’s ultimately required to force Ukraine to peace on Russia’s terms, after which it can then withdraw from those other regions.

Apart from the aforesaid motive, this sequence of events is also predicated on Putin expecting that the Europeans would defy Trump by continuing to pump Ukraine full of arms even if the US cuts it off yet again, which would turn any ceasefire into an opportunity for Kiev to rearm to Russia’s disadvantage. It could therefore accordingly follow that Russia’s only realistic recourse might be to expand its ground campaign into Sumy, Dniepropetrovsk, and/or Kharkov Regions to continue demilitarizing Ukraine.

On that note, this would advance the proposed goal of creating a demilitarized “Trans-Dnieper” region east of the river and north of the territories that Russia claims as its own, which was elaborated on here. Everything leading up to this scenario takes for granted that Trump won’t meaningfully “escalate to de-escalate”, or that this wouldn’t impede Russia’s expanded ground campaigns, and that the Europeans won’t conventionally intervene either. None of this can be taken for granted, though, so it’s a huge risk.

For that reason, Putin might continue playing it safe for now by keeping Russia’s ground campaign limited to the four former Ukrainian regions that Moscow claims as its own, though perhaps authorizing small-scale advances into adjacent regions on a case-by-case basis. These could be approved to chase retraining Ukrainian soldiers to their next major fortifications in Sumy, Dniepropetrovsk, and/or Kharkov Regions in order press Russia’s advantage but without seriously besieging those areas for the time being.

The purpose could be to signal Russia’s ground escalation dominance so that Trump does his utmost to coerce Ukraine into concessions in order to avoid the broader escalation that he might otherwise feel pressured to go through with to “save face” if Russia achieves a breakthrough and steamrolls westward. This sort of “goodwill gesture” would be different from the prior ones in the sense that Russia would continue advancing while negotiating instead of pulling back like before for the sake of clinching a deal.

All the same, Russia would also exercise self-restraint by not fully pressing its advantage since that could prompt an overreaction from the US that might dangerously complicate the peace process. So long as Russia’s intentions are communicated to the US in advance, any escalation should remain manageable. This approach would still entail some risks, but typically cautious Putin might feel comfortable enough with their reduced odds to conclude that the potentially game-changing benefits are worth it.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/will-rus ... d-campaign

One of Little Andy's less stupid offerings of recent...

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Ukraine Still Rejects Temporary, Energy Related Ceasefire Deal

The publicly known results of yesterday's telephone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin are only minor:

In the run up to today's call, Donald Trump made a big deal of his conversation with Russia's Vladimir Putin.
But the results look like there's little to shout about.

The Russian president has given the US leader just enough to claim that he made progress towards peace in Ukraine, without making it look like he was played by the Kremlin.

Trump can point to Putin's pledge to halt attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure for 30 days. If that actually happens, it will bring some relief to civilians.

But it's nowhere near the full and unconditional ceasefire that the US wanted from Russia.

The length of the call, more than two hours, suggests that there were more items to talk about than just a ceasefire in Ukraine. However neither side has given more than a hints of what these items might have been.

The Russian pledge to immediately halt attacks on energy facilities is not new at all.

The Russian readout of yesterday's talk is explicitly mentioning a ceasefire on energy facilities:

During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded favourably to the proposal and immediately gave the relevant order to the Russian troops.
The White House readout acknowledges the offer but does not confirm a date for its acceptance:

The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.
Ukraine seems to have not yet agreed to such a deal (machine translation):

Ukraine did not rule out support for the proposal to stop attacks on energy infrastructure.
This was stated by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky during a conversation with journalists.

"We have always supported the position not to strike with any weapons on the energy sector," Zelensky said.

At the same time, the President of Ukraine made it clear that he has not yet made a decision.

"After we receive details from the American president, from the American side, we will prepare and voice our response to the proposal to stop attacks on energy infrastructure, and the team will be ready for technical negotiations," Zelensky said.

Putin's concession, to immediately stop attacks on energy infrastructure, has for now (again) been rejected. Last night the Ukrainian side continued to attack Russian energy facilities:

On the night of 19 March 2025, several hours after the high-level Russian-American talks were completed and after the President of the Russian Federation accepted the U.S. President's offer to temporary cease strikes at the Ukrainian power infrastructure, the Kiev regime launched a deliberate attack by three fixed-wing UAVs at a power infrastructure facility in stanitsa Kavkazkaya (Krasnodar region).
This facility ensures oil transshipment from railway tank cars into the pipeline system of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) international oil transport company.

There was a fire and some damage caused by it.

It is quite clear that it is one more provocation deliberately prepared by the Kiev regime aimed at undermining the U.S. President's peace initiatives.
The first agreement to stop attacks on energy facilities was made in the fall of 2023 as the FT reported in October last year:

Other attempts to broker a deal have also foundered in the past. Four Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times that Kyiv and Moscow had come to a “tacit agreement” last autumn to not strike each other’s energy facilities.
As a result, Russia that winter refrained from the type of large-scale attacks it had conducted on Ukraine’s power infrastructure in 2022-23, according to two Ukrainian officials and a person in Washington with knowledge of the situation.

That agreement was meant to pave the way towards a formal deal, the people said.

However, Kyiv restarted drone attacks on Russia’s oil facilities in February and March this year, as it sought to increase pressure on Moscow after its failed 2023 counteroffensive.

A second agreement prohibiting attacks on energy infrastructure was in the making in August 2024. The Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk oblast of Russia prevented it from being accepted. In October 2024 Ukraine was back at begging for such a deal:

Ukraine and Russia are in preliminary discussions about halting strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure, according to people familiar with the matter.
Kyiv was seeking to resume Qatar-mediated negotiations that came close to agreement in August before being derailed by Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk, said the people, who included senior Ukrainian officials.

For unknown reasons the agreement was not revived at that time.

Ukraine's last night attack on another Russian energy facility is the third time it has prevented or abolished such a deal. Russia has however always been willing to pursue it.

Ukraine is presumably determined to blockade any deal, even a small 30 day ceasefire with regards to energy facilities.

Unless the Trump administration puts more pressure on Kiev there will be no chance to achieve any kind of ceasefire deal.

Posted by b on March 19, 2025 at 13:53 UTC | Permalink

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F-16 fighter jet shot down in Sumy region
March 19, 21:11

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F-16 fighter jet shot down in Sumy region

They confirm ( https://t.me/Aviahub34/5159 ) the downing of an American F-16 fighter in the Sumy region.
The target was illuminated by a Su-35 fighter, and the S-400 air defense system crew worked on the target.
This is the second F-16 destroyed in the air during the war in Ukraine. The first was mistakenly destroyed by a Patriot air defense system crew last year.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9734725.html

I am not against German technology being used and lost.
March 20, 13:17

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Jihadi Julian complains that the invasion of the Belgorod region has failed and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are senselessly losing Western equipment.

"I am not against German equipment being used and lost, as in the case of this Bergepanzer 2. But it would be nice if this did not happen during the poorly planned and poorly executed invasion of the Belgorod region. It ended with the loss of all equipment and brought nothing to Ukraine" (c) Repke

In fact, during the attempts to invade the Belgorod region (quite expected), the enemy has already lost about 20 units of equipment (including valuable IMR, including German) + a decent number of personnel. but did not achieve success. Now he is trying to get in more with infantry. With the same result. The enemy failed to achieve tactical surprise, as a result of which the entire invasion operation stalled.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9735843.html

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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