Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Mar 21, 2025 11:47 am

Nachtigall
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/21/2025

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On February 27, 2025, in an interview published on YouTube , Captain Dmytro Kolyada, known as Kholod , spoke about the origins of the Nachtigall unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He noted that, in its beginnings, the main objective was to form a battalion for the defense of the country and that it was only when the unit's name was considered in the chat where its members communicated that the reference to Nachtigall came up. According to Kholod , the name was later consolidated as the name of this new far-right battalion of the Ukrainian forces. A battalion whose main fighting motivation—like so many others—is focused on the will to continue the fight against Russia that groups like the UPA began during World War II.

On March 6, a post on an Instagram account linked to Nachtigall commemorated the birth of Roman Shujevich, the supreme leader of the UPA. In the period after 1939, following the invasion of Poland and prior to the creation of that armed movement, Shujevich participated in the formation of a group of Ukrainian military units promoted by the Abwehr, Nazi Germany's military intelligence. Starting that year, several OUN members, including Shujevich, moved to Krakow, where the Abwehr, under the leadership of Theodor Oberlander, organized their military training. These Ukrainian recruits would form the Nachtigall and Roland battalions of the Third Reich.

Shujevich served the Third Reich in the special unit Nachtigall, where he rose to become deputy commander. Dressed in German uniform, Shujevich participated in the invasion of Soviet Ukraine as part of Nachtigall. Along with other Third Reich units, the future UPA leader entered Lviv around June 29, 1941, the city where Yaroslav Stetsko would proclaim the Ukrainian state the following day " under the leadership of... Adolf Hitler ." During the brutal attacks in June and July 1941 against the Jewish population in Lviv—at that time around a third of the population, 200,000 people, of whom around 800 survived the Holocaust—Nachtigall remained present in the city, and, according to various accounts, its members took an active part in local pogroms. Some sources also point to its involvement in the repression of the Polish intelligentsia in the city.

In its March 6 post, the current Nachtigall unit reclaimed Shujevich's legacy in this way: "He died in battle like a true knight and inspired thousands of Ukrainians to fight. Including us. We, the "Nachtigall" unit, will continue Shujevich's work until the last enemy disappears from our land ." For some sources familiar with the history of the current Ukrainian armed forces, this was the first time that the unit's Nazi reference was acknowledged, at least so explicitly.

In Western media, in fact, Nachtigall is commonly referred to as the Nightingale Battalion, a less German-sounding name, a way of concealing its inspiration. Under that name, it has been mentioned as one of the units that actively participated in the Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk region. Currently, the battalion's forces are mostly deployed, according to Kholod , on the border front in the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions.

The Nachtigall Battalion is attached to the 14th Drone Regiment, whose deputy commander and absolute political-military leader is Yevhen Karas, a regular on the Ukrainian ultranationalist scene in the last decade and the first leader of the famous extremist battalion C14-Sich. A permanent presence in the nationalist development of the Ukraine born on Maidan, the Revolution of Dignity , which he once said would have been a gay pride march without the nationalists, Karas has been linked to SBU structures and is known as one of the most ideologically radical figures of the Ukrainian far right.

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Korchinsky, from Bratstvo, Karas and Kujarchuk, from Andriy Biletsky's Third Assault Brigade.

Strikingly, Karas currently appears as one of Dmytro Korchinsky's allies, part of the GUR (Revolutionary Unity of the Soviet Union), in what can be considered an attempt to consolidate a new Christian-oriented political-military force, ready to challenge for political-military power in Ukraine in the coming years. Organized around the Christian-Patriotic Platform, promoted by Yana Matviychuk, its promoters advocate, in addition to the full Christianization and Ukrainization of Ukrainian society from far-right and anti-feminist positions (opposition to "gender propaganda," radical opposition to abortion, etc.), the destruction of the Russian Federation and its allied regimes . To this end, they seek to win over the Christian fundamentalist far right in the West, and particularly in the United States.

Although opposed to his paganism, Karas also places himself close to the Azov movement and the Russian neo-Nazism of the RDK, as revealed by his participation in the August 24, 2024, 2024 Nation Europa conference . A furious anti-communist, homophobic, and misogynist, Karas celebrated March 8 by remembering those who “ cleansed the earth of communism .” To this end, he included an image of the German Freikorps in his Telegram with the following expression: “ Another day without Rosa Luxemburg .”

Although hatred of Russia and communism are Karas and Nachtigall's main inspirations, they have not remained a thing of the past. They are at the forefront of the reconstruction of the most hardcore far-right in Europe.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/21/nachtigall/

Google Translator

******

Russia's Plan for 2025
Major Frontline Summary for March 11-17, 2025. Report by Marat Khairullin.
Zinderneuf
Mar 19, 2025

While everyone is focused on political developments, trying to predict what will happen next, our troops have practically pushed the Armed Forces of Ukraine out of the Kursk region. The contours of the operations that the Russian Army will conduct are now becoming visible.

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By the beginning of 2025, the enemy forces had been reduced to a state where holding their flanks became an almost insurmountable task. The internal problems of the Ukrainian army are compounded by the sentiments of the people in Ukraine itself, where citizens witness the lawlessness and atrocities of the TCC (Ukraine's draft conscription emforcement), as well as the difficulties faced by external curators and sponsors of the war, especially after the shift in the U.S. administration.

Let’s take a look at how events on the front line may unfold this year.

From the very beginning, we stated that the "Kursk adventure" by the AFU was a suicidal move. For many months, the enemy had been probing the possibility of entering our territory along the line from the Bryansk to the Belgorod regions (everyone remembers the stories about sabotage and reconnaissance groups). By striking the Kursk region, they initially hoped to reach Kurchatov and seize the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.

Our forces noticed that the Ukrainians were preparing something but did not expect them to amass such significant forces. Despite this, the enemy was met with a worthy response. However, by secretly accumulating troops and deploying frontline air defense, they pushed forward, ignoring losses and literally advancing over their own corpses.

It is already known that in the first four days, we eliminated about a third of their frontline air defense potential, not counting other equipment. But they were seeking media attention.

Naturally, they failed to reach Kurchatov. Our military contained their offensive. After this, the AFU began digging in literally everywhere. Their losses during this period exceeded those during the much-hyped "counteroffensive" of 2023 by two to two and a half times, reaching up to a thousand personnel per day.

As a result, their advance of about thirty kilometers on a relatively small section of the front cost them approximately sixty thousand personnel. The Ukrops losses in equipment were also staggering. In the first days, they lost up to two to three dozen tanks per day.

Within the first few weeks, the AFU lost the group that had been prepared for this operation and replaced it with scarce reserves pulled from everywhere, including freshly mobilized individuals rounded up from the streets.

Failing to achieve their initial goal of capturing the nuclear power plant, the Ukrainians hoped that we would panic and redeploy units from the Pokrovsk direction, weakening it.

I believe this was the last desperate move of a cornered rat. Moreover, if we look closely at the date this adventure began, we can see that it was timed to coincide with specific events, namely the U.S. election race.

Currently, the Ukrainians hold only a few villages near the border and a few ravines where they tried to regroup during their retreat. Many are now wondering whether Russian troops will pursue the retreating forces into Sumy, especially since we already have a foothold in the Sumy region near Zhuravka, Novenkoe, and Basovka.

Most likely, given that our forces are not heavily resigned to this direction, diplomacy will take over. If we aim to gain control of these territories, it is better to acquire them intact rather than as rubble.

Why do I think we won’t move on Sumy in 2025?

To understand this, we need to look at the Kharkov region, where a security zone is already being formed along the line Volchansk–Velykyi Burluk–Kupyansk.

Control over this route, combined with the Seversky Donets River and its cascade of reservoirs to the west, creates an ideal security zone, as mentioned by Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. It appears that this is only the first stage, as we insist on a demilitarized zone extending to the Dnieper River under our control, including Odessa and Nikolaev.

Given that we have already taken out most of the power generation in the Kharkov region, integrating it into our grid (after demilitarization) will be a prelude to its incorporation into Russia.

One of the points of the plan for this year is already visible—the creation of a security zone along the Volchansk-Kupyansk highway.

Another obvious area is the formation of a cauldron around Kupyansk, where one pincer is near Dvurechnaya, and the other is near Kruglyakovka-Senkovo. Our forces are also pressuring the AFU bridgehead on the left (eastern) bank of the Oskol River in the Borovsk direction. This is also part of the Kharkov region. Its significance lies in covering the main supply line to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which runs through Izyum.

We are also advancing toward this agglomeration from the Liman direction, where we broke through the defense line near Kolodezi and are moving toward Torskoe-Zarechnoye.

From these two directions, our forces can simultaneously reach the last fortified area before Liman near the settlement of Stavki.

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Archived. March 18th, 2025

Capturing Liman not only gives us access to the rear of Slavyansk but also cuts off the supply route to Seversk. Given that our forces are advancing from Belogorovka to Serebryanka (which will still require significant effort), the Ukrainians entrenched in the Kremensky forests will have to retreat to Seversk to avoid being trapped in a cauldron as a sacrifice.

The next key area is, of course, Chasov Yar. This is the last fortress of the Ukrainians, covering Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk, which is currently the capital of the occupied part of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). When the main heights near Chasov Yar are already under our control, Russian troops will advance toward Kramatorsk and the road connecting it to Konstantinovka.
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Archived. March 12, 2025

The complete liberation of Chasov Yar opens up several directions for us. Cutting off the supply route from Kramatorsk isolates Konstantinovka and, by extension, the Toretsk sector.

If we simultaneously apply pressure from the Seversk direction, the domino effect will take hold for the Ukrainians.

As for Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), while the Ukrainians are trying to regain some ground there, they lack flanks (it should be noted that they partially managed to push us back in the city, but their recent successes have begun to fade). Our forces are tightening the noose of a double encirclement.

Once any part of the pocket collapses, the Russian Armed Forces will likely move from the Vozdvizhenka area to bypass Pokrovsk, cutting off the supply route through Rodinskoe.

Meanwhile, south of Pokrovsk, our armed forces have reached open terrain, where they can move toward the city’s supply line from Pavlograd and into the rear of the AFU grouping on the Zaporozhye direction, all the way to Dnepropetrovsk, through areas without strong fortifications.

The time required to build such fortifications is one of the reasons for the Ukrainians’ persistent calls for a ceasefire.

If we reach Dnepropetrovsk, we can destroy all bridges across the Dnieper, cutting off the left bank, and then proceed to clear our territories of the enemy.

At the same time, activity is increasing in the Zaporozhye direction. If we look back a year, we can see a consistent chain of events on the front. After the capture of Avdeevka in February of last year, the Chasov Yar direction became active. By May, the Toretsk direction had also come to life. By mid-summer, settlements near Toretsk were taken, and our troops entered the city.

At this point, the Pokrovsk direction became active. The Tonenkoe line was captured, followed by Selidovo, and Ugledar fell, leading to the encirclement of enemy forces near Pokrovsk.

After the liberation of Kurakhovo, our troops gained operational freedom.

As a result, the enemy’s main unified fortified line has been fragmented. We will soon see where the diversionary and main strikes will occur.

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From my perspective, the main direction will be the encirclement of Dnepropetrovsk, (Ukrainian: Dnipro) which is less than 80 kilometers away. The city itself does not need to be taken physically. As I mentioned earlier, it can be blockaded by destroying the bridges. This would not require large forces, allowing troops to be redirected for the complete liberation and clearing of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, and then onward to Odessa.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... n-for-2025

******

Not going for Odessa would be a mistake

Lucas Leiroz

March 20, 2025

Moscow should not ignore the historical, symbolic, and geostrategic relevance of Odessa

Odessa is of crucial historical importance and vital relevance in the context of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. Its liberation should not merely be a military goal but a central strategic objective for Russia. Amid tragic events, such as the Trade Unions House massacre, and the extremist rhetoric of Ukrainian leaders, Odessa represents a turning point both for the future of the conflict and for regional security. Not going for Odessa would be a grave mistake, compromising not only Russia’s military objectives but also the very confidence of ethnic Russians in Moscow’s ability to protect them both within and outside the Federation.

The Trade Unions House massacre: A tragic symbol

On May 2, 2014, Odessa was the scene of one of the bloodiest and darkest episodes in Ukraine’s recent history. On that day, nationalist militants, supported by the Ukrainian government, attacked anti-Maidan protesters who had sought refuge in the Trade Unions House. The attack culminated in a devastating fire, resulting in the deaths of 48 people and leaving more than 200 injured. Many of the victims perished in the flames, unable to escape the burning building.

This massacre was not merely an isolated tragedy but a milestone highlighting the growing extremism within the Ukrainian government. The Ukrainian authorities’ failure to prevent the attack or hold the perpetrators accountable, as recently recognized by the European Court of Human Rights, reveals the regime’s complicity with radical nationalist groups. Since then, Odessa has become a symbol of the suffering inflicted by these groups, and its liberation would serve to rectify this historical injustice.

Kiev’s extremist rhetoric: the ideological threat

During his presidency, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko adopted an aggressive stance that exacerbated division and violence in the country. In a terrifying speech, Poroshenko declared that Russian children would “live in bomb shelters,” revealing not only a belligerent posture but also a desire to instill fear and exclusion in Russian minorities within Ukraine at the time.

This speech did not occur in Odessa by chance. Poroshenko chose a historically Russian city to threaten Russian citizens. Odessa then became the ultimate symbol of neo-Nazi occupation, with its liberation being a way to reverse the policies initiated by the Maidan Junta and finally achieve Russia’s goal of denazification.

The geostrategic importance of Odessa

Odessa’s significance goes far beyond its symbolic value. Geographically, Odessa is in a crucial position for Russia. The city serves as a gateway to the Black Sea and as a key point to secure Russian access to the Transnistrian corridor — a strip of territory connecting Ukraine with the pro-Russian separatist Moldovan region.

Currently, Russian and pro-Russian soldiers and civilians are trapped between Ukraine and Moldova, and controlling Odessa would open a safe route for these people, ensuring evacuation and necessary logistical support — perhaps even enabling the reintegration of Transnistria into Russia, if the local population desires it. The military and humanitarian importance of this operation cannot be underestimated. Without Odessa, Russia would compromise not only its strategic capabilities but also its responsibility to protect its citizens in critical zones.

The need for justice and stability

The tragedy in Odessa, despite finally being covered by Western media after the recent condemnation by the European Court, has never been adequately addressed by Ukrainian authorities. Local police not only failed to prevent the massacre but also delayed the arrival of firefighters, resulting in more deaths. No significant legal measure has been taken against those responsible, and impunity has prevailed.

For Russia, liberating Odessa represents more than a military victory. It is a chance to restore the dignity of the victims and reaffirm the need for justice. Odessa has become a symbol of the Ukrainian government’s failure to protect its citizens, and its liberation could be a decisive step toward eradicating nationalist extremism throughout the post-Soviet space.

Odessa as a strategic priority

Not going for Odessa would seriously compromise the broader objectives of the special military operation. The city represents a convergence of military, humanitarian, and ideological importance. The liberation of Odessa would not only correct a historical injustice but also ensure a crucial strategic position for Russia, allowing safe access to Transnistria and protecting Russian civilians trapped by the violence of the Ukrainian regime.

Recently, a Ukrainian neo-Nazi leader was assassinated on Odessa’s streets in an act of popular revolt against draconian mobilization policies. Moscow should interpret this gesture as a cry for help from Odessa’s Russian population, which is showing a willingness to take up arms against fascist occupation and in favor of Russian liberation.

Furthermore, it is crucial to emphasize that the point of no return in the conflict’s escalation has already been crossed. The Kiev regime has proven itself untrustworthy for any negotiation, which is why measures must be taken to permanently neutralize Ukraine’s strategic capabilities. Eliminating Ukrainian access to the sea is a fundamental measure in this regard, as landlocked countries face a clear military disadvantage. It is definitely time for Moscow to update its territorial interests beyond the four New Regions.

The special military operation cannot allow Odessa to remain under the control of extremist nationalists who reject any possibility of dialogue or peace. After the complete expulsion of neo-Nazis from the New Constitutional Regions, Odessa must become a priority—not only to guarantee military victory but to reaffirm Russia’s commitment to justice, security, and regional stability. Abandoning Odessa should not be an option; after more than a decade of war, it is a mistake Russia cannot afford to make.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... e-mistake/

Yes.

*******

Drone death

Fire and earth. Guts, vertebrae, torn-off jaws. Death for wounded, POWs, and civilians.
Events in Ukraine
Mar 20, 2025

Generally my war updates have focused on the latest maps, tactics, and strategy. Of course, I’ve written a lot about the evolution of various drones deployed at the frontline. But the military telegrams I translate are themselves drone operators, and tend to glorify their craft.

Of course, they do delight in sharing various videos of them hunting down hapless soldiers. Often they taunt them before their death, with the drone circling around at close range, the soldier pleading to take mercy. Then, finally, they go in for the kill.

But it’s often hard to find honest descriptions of the psychological reality of drone warfare. Luckily, this is just what is done by an enormous March 17 article by the USAID-funded Russian publication Meduza. Currently located in exile in the EU, and obviously opposing ‘Putin’s war against Ukraine’, this publication generally tries to at least have some pretense of journalistic neutrality.

The article consists of many sections, all dedicated to answering ‘Why Many Ukrainians Don’t Want to Fight’ The author, Shura Burtin, aims to describe ‘the New Fear of War That Has Gripped the Entire Country’.

In a future article, I’ll try to take a look at what the article has to say about mobilization, perilous escape from the Ukrainian camp, the pointless, brutal deaths Ukrainian soldiers are forced to offer by their corrupt commanders, and why men who were only recently ultra-patriots desert from the frontlines. But today, I wanted to focus on drones.

A note to the reader - in post-soviet armies, KIA is known as 200, while WIA are known as 300.

The western front

The first time drones appear is in the section describing a man’s dangerous escape from Ukraine. Followed by Ukrainian border patrol drones, they are forced to abandon a sickly companion to an uncertain fate. I’ve written here several times about instances where Ukrainian men have been shot by Ukrainian border patrol for the crime of trying to escape the country. While I doubt he was shot, I’m sure he was beaten up and sent to the front. Here’s the excerpt:

[About five hours later, we reached the very border. There was a small forest there, and beyond it—the last field we had to sprint across. We ran for a long, long time because drones could spot us. We saw lights burning somewhere in the distance.

And right at the border—there were dragon’s teeth, concrete barriers. They had been placed on the Ukrainian side because Transnistria is a Russian proxy.

The moment we crossed those barriers, sensors went off, floodlights turned on, some kind of light started shining on us, dogs started running, and a flashlight was approaching.

We started running as fast as we could—so fast that I ended up second. The guy ahead of me suddenly shouted, "Watch out, a hole!"—and before I could react, I was already falling into it. I was flying down, but somehow, I landed safely. And then, everyone started falling on top of me.

The trench was wide and deep—about two and a half meters. Everyone scrambled to get in, helping each other climb out on the other side. The first guy was boosted up, then we started pulling each other out—quickly, because they were closing in from both sides. We got out, ran, and worked together smoothly.

Beyond that, there was a forest, but everything was calm—only distant dogs barking in nearby villages.

One guy in our group kept lagging behind. I think he had some kind of illness—he had been weak from the very start. Honestly, when I first saw him, I thought he was in bad shape. He had struggled earlier, even in the garbage truck. I kept helping him up, but once we crossed the border, he fell behind.

I begged the others, "Let's wait for him." But they said, "We're not waiting for anyone. Everyone's on their own here."

And so, he was left somewhere in the forest. I could hear him shouting after us, but by then, we were already far away. I don’t know what happened to him after that.[/i]

In fact, drones are regularly used to capture Ukrainian men trying to escape their vanguard of democracy. The official ‘army news’ website wrote an article in January 2024 praising drones for their effectiveness in this field. Here is one of many videos released by Ukraine’s border patrol showing the apprehension of men at the border with Romania using a drone:



And here is the captured prey:

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Guts, vertebrae, torn-off jaws.

Another section deals with the attempts by one formerly patriotic man to explain to an ultra-patriotic woman why he doesn’t want to fight. I’d add that this gender dynamic is quite common, for obvious reasons. For the same reason, there are plenty of pensioners with no reason to be patriotic, who nevertheless delight in shaming the draftable for evading service:

"At the start of the war, it seemed like it brought out the best in people," says my friend Borya, a designer. "But then it turned out that it wakes up the worst in them. A long war is a disaster for society."

I told my brother about these guys who ran away, and his wife got really worked up. People like her fly into a rage instantly. The guys said that some Moldovans there were acting hostile, and she goes, "Yeah, no one likes cowards anywhere!"

Right away, it’s all shouting, hissing: "So what, should we just surrender to Putin?!"

I got worked up too. "And what makes you think you have the right to decide other people’s lives? Just because you don’t want to surrender to Putin?"

I said, "Do you even understand what people are running from? Have you even seen these videos?"

I wanted to show her—there’s a series of videos from the Third Assault Brigade [Azov[ where FPV drones are used against infantry. They’re set to this upbeat music, showing footage from a drone as it hunts down [Russian] soldiers.


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An FPV drone used by Azov. They are ‘kamikaze’ drones, meaning that they fly into their victim at speeds of up to 180 km/h. The operator is glued to the video from the drone’s perspective until the very end.

One drone flies straight into a person, while another hovers above, recording as he dies. The soldiers try to find ways to survive—some pretend to be dead. Or one hides behind a thin tree, crouching, and the drone flies right under him, blowing off his backside. He’s left writhing in agony, breathing heavily, with blood rising and falling.

"Oh no, I don’t watch things like that!"

Of course, they don’t want to see it—they immediately brush it off. Because if they stopped for a moment and really weighed the pros and cons, it would shatter their worldview—the one where everything is about heroism, resistance, and a noble fight.
But this—this is guts, vertebrae, torn-off jaws.

She’s not heartless—she deeply cares about animals; she has five stray dogs. And, of course, if she let these images into her mind, she wouldn’t be able to keep holding on to her righteous beliefs. She senses that and refuses to even face the choice. Otherwise, she’d end up just as frustrated as I am.

To get an idea of how these FPV videos look, but without the gore, here’s a Russian fibre-optic drone hurtling into a Ukrainian vehicle close to the village of Guyevo, in the Kursk region near the border with Ukraine. This took place in the past few days: (Video at link.)


Corruption, cognac and chimeras

The sections about military corruption and the brutal indifference of command are mainly concerned with infantry, but one part involved drones as well. A good drone is often far more highly-valued than human life:

Vitalik, a young, curly-haired guy, around 23, suddenly starts speaking very emotionally:

"Most of the higher-ups are just making money—they don’t care at all about the lives of the soldiers. Recently, they sent people out in the middle of the day to search for a lost leleka (recon drone). In the end, one guy got wounded, the medics went to pick him up, and an FPV drone hit them—one 200, 19 years old, my friend!"

"Ask the guys how the battalion commander threatened them—he said that if they didn’t launch the aircraft, he’d come and shoot them in the legs. How many drones have been lost just because he decided to launch them when the weather was actually terrible, and the pilots knew it? But he has no experience—and he doesn’t give a damn!"


Much of the article is dedicated to the harrowing experiences of drone operators. Here’s what one had to say to Meduza:

A month in—and your mind starts slipping.

24/7, you’re stuck in a completely sealed-off house, staring at a monitor. No air to breathe, everyone’s constantly on edge, yelling at each other. Ninety percent of this job is just for show—we’re basically watching an empty field.

You fly over enemy territory and find nothing because everyone is hiding. But you can’t just report that you found nothing, so you start padding the stats. You fixate on some random vehicle: "Look, a 'Kozel' (UAZ jeep) is driving—let’s track it." A soldier gets out, goes into a store, buys cigarettes.

Our commander sits there, staring at a big screen with a pixelated image, and suddenly says he sees a gun. No one else sees a gun. But he can’t afford to look incompetent: "All hands on deck! Fire at this area!"

"Target hit."

I look—there was nothing there. There never was.

In a month and a half, I didn’t have a single moment where I felt useful. People get combat pay for this. You already know they’re doing absolutely nothing, but on top of that, there’s constant screaming over nothing—because this is supposed to be important work.

I started carrying a little cognac under my jacket. Then it got to the point where my morning tea had cognac, my lunch and dinner too.

I realized I was about to lose it, so I started playing it up: "I can’t handle this, it’s too much—get me out of here."


I wrote about alcoholism in the Ukrainian army here. It is in fact often because of alcoholism and drug abuse that commanders start torturing and extorting their soldiers. They justify the physical punishment and financial fines as necessary tools in the maintenance of discipline. c

The frustration of being stuck to a computer screen 24/7 is certainly an easy way to go insane and become an alcoholic:

“You do realize that I’m doing nothing here, that none of us are doing anything,” Kostya says after coming back. “What we’re launching is a kid’s toy. Half the drones just crash somewhere in the fields, the other half flies past the front line. In three months, I think we’ve actually hit something twice. And we go out every single day—how’s that for stats?

Their maneuverability drops so much that hitting anything is a miracle. They promised us better drones, but this is the army—whatever they promise, they break.

Bragging about how many combat sorties we’ve had is like being proud of how many times you’ve jerked off.”


The general emotion reigning among human soldiers is one of total impotence before the flying machines:

In the morning, through my sleep, I hear the rattle of a machine gun; it sounds cozy, as if it's protecting me, and I want to sleep more.
— What's that?
— "Shaheds" [Russian kamikaze drones] are being shot down.
— Is it working?
— That's an inappropriate question, — Kostya smiles.
— Listen, I just don’t understand: if you’re doing some bullshit and suffering, then why do you post on Facebook for others to join the Armed Forces?
— Ha, right... Well, that's how it works, everyone has to sacrifice something.
— Maybe the staff shortage will push the army to change?
— Well... no, it’ll probably just collapse.
It seems to me that many people in Ukraine are acting like Kostya now — they no longer believe, but they still keep pushing others to join.


Death by drone

The rest of the text is dedicated to the dark details of death by drone. Note the numbers of Russians KIA after many days of fighting - 12, far from the ‘meat storms’ of ‘hundreds of dead Russians a day’ described by Ukrainian propaganda:

Entering the evacuation bus in a village near Pokrovsk, I immediately notice the swollen faces and vacant stares. The wounded are doped up on painkillers, yet they are still in pain, but more importantly, they are not really here—their minds are somewhere else. I sit down next to the men and ask them about the circumstances of their injuries. One by one, they tell the same story, opening a window into a terrifying, infernal reality.

A man nearing 60, a construction worker from the Rivne region, shows his frostbitten, claw-like hands and complains with a kind of bewildered surprise that they no longer bend.
"Out in the open: no dugouts, nothing, just a net stretched overhead. There was no one to relieve us, a lot of guys got hit. We had no communication, but we held out to the end. The faggots tried to encircle us, to cut off the road—two, three assaults a day. Out of twenty men, five were killed, and many more were wounded. There were others there too, but they left in an unknown direction. For three days, we had no food, then they dropped some from drones—a can of buckwheat porridge for four men a day. There was a young guy in a panic, we tried to keep him together. Because there was no way to dig in there, no trenches, just a shallow scrape. At night, when they stopped coming, you could crawl out for a couple of minutes to stretch your legs."

On the last day, FPV drones started flying in—we set up branches, they’d hit them and explode about three meters in front of us. My nose bled for two or three days, then it stopped. Well, they gave me a pill, and I’m still taking it now. Our radio died, so we shot at the slightest rustle, at any crackling in the bushes—whether it was an animal or something else. When the assault troops arrived, they counted 12 dead faggots there, so we weren’t just jumping at shadows for nothing. They praised us, hugged us, gave us water to drink and a chocolate bar each. I didn’t want to go to the medical unit—I was running on adrenaline or something. They said, “You’re no use in this state.” They took my trophies—rifles, knives, radios. I didn’t agree to go, but somehow I ended up in the medical unit, though I don’t remember how. At the medical unit, they gave me food—I threw it up right away. In the morning, I threw up again, but gradually I got used to eating.


As you would know from my military reporting, ‘faggots’ is the preferred term among Ukrainian soldiers for the enemy. The next story is heartrending, but it also mentions something which is never explained - what ‘faggots’ did the man get the cigarettes from? I doubt it was a case of frontline fraternization, drone warfare destroys the possibility of any human life emerging in the open. Most likely he got them from the bodies of dead Russians.

From the picture the man describes, I understand why the wounded have that look in their eyes.

"We were there for 22 days. I don’t know if they’ll record it—they say the notebooks burned at headquarters, or maybe the computer. They took me to headquarters, my head was spinning, I rewrote the report twice, but the battalion commander tore it up. But at least I’m alive. My son is also fighting in Zaporizhzhia, and my wife is alone. I call her, and she starts crying—so I turn off the phone. I kept two or three thousand [hryvnias, which is about $50-70 USD]for myself and sent the rest to her. What do I need? Just enough to buy smokes, that’s it. There were no cigarettes there, so I thought: maybe the faggots have some? I went and found three packs, took them, and we smoked, but they were too strong. I said, ‘Maybe they put something in them, screw that.’ I remember things in flashes—like, I’ll talk and talk, then forget. The guys tell me, ‘You’ve already told us that…’ I say, ‘Sorry.’"

The man is severely concussed. Most of the others around him also complain about their memory failing.


Though many soldiers’ memory is fading, one thing is certain:

In nine out of ten cases, their injuries were caused by a drone. It was either an FPV (a kamikaze drone), a "skid" (a grenade, mine, or incendiary device dropped from a drone), or a drone controlling a mortar—and so on. Drones are everywhere; there are already far more of them than people. Being out in the open is never safe—neither day nor night. Soldiers must constantly hide in dugouts or some kind of camouflaged holes covered with branches.

Dissembling, demotivation

Other testimonies point to the deeply demotivating effect of drone warfare for infantry:

"The damn drone is always hovering, everything around us buzzes from them. When one leaves, another arrives and hovers for another hour. And an FPV drone comes by every hour, just in case. They fly right into the firing ports. If you don’t take it out, it’ll just slam into a pile of debris. They watched us until evening, waiting for us to come out, the wounded. Our guys take out the faggots, and they take us out. Our neighbors’ house was completely destroyed by FPV drones—there’s not even rubble left. I shout to the guys, but they don’t respond on comms…"

You probably understood a bit of that? Let me try to decode it. Reconnaissance drones constantly hover over the dugouts where infantry hide. There are so many of them above the positions that the air hums like a swarm of bees. The drones work in shifts: when one’s battery runs low, another takes its place. From time to time, FPV drones—single-use kamikaze drones—scour the area to kill any soldier who peeks out or to fly into a dugout and explode inside. If it doesn’t succeed, it detonates in a random pile of debris. The drones keep watch around the clock, waiting for the wounded to be carried out of the dugout (to be taken to an evacuation point). As soon as they notice this, FPVs or grenade-dropping drones will swoop in. Drones can see day and night, but they struggle in "gray light," meaning twilight. This small window in the morning and evening, about 20 minutes long, is what the infantry waits for. ‘To dissemble’ (soldier slang, used on both sides of the front) means to blow up, destroy, or tear apart. You can "dissemble" a dugout, an armored vehicle, or a person. In this case, they "dissemble" a house, killing everyone inside.

For almost two hundred years, the main shelter for infantry was trenches: artillery and mortars rarely hit precisely, and most casualties came from shrapnel. But a drone drops a grenade exactly into the centimeter it needs to, so trenches have lost their purpose.
"A trench definitely won’t save you," explains my friend, combat medic Taras. "A dugout might save you, if they don’t deliberately start dissembling it. You can’t walk through the trenches anymore—people just live underground, adapting, literally turning into mice. Mice bite you from all sides, and you’re like the king of mice, living with them. The last time I walked through trenches was last year."

"I spent 12 days at one position, and in that time, I wasn’t outside for more than half an hour," says a wounded soldier.

"When they assault, at least you can see them coming. But here, you hear the sounds, but you can’t stick your head out to look."


This section is useful in understand what I’ve written about before - the fact that Ukrainian trenches and fortified positions are often taken without any soldiers in them. The Russians encircle the trench then walk in. It’s often simply too dangerous to even be in a trench. The only ones that are viable are remarkable underground complexes, like the one below: (Video at link.)

Carl Schmitt once wrote about how 20th century warfare is turning away from the sea and the land, towards fire and the skies. I’d add a certain dialectical movement - the sky war creates the earth burrower. Korea, Vietnam, Lebanon, Palestine…

Out of luck

Once out in the open, the ‘safari’ - a term beloved by drone warriors on both sides of the front - begins:

"The FPV drones dart back and forth, figuring out where you are. If they find you, they’ll chase you—they’ll destroy you no matter what. It’s hard to shoot them down with a rifle; they accelerate to 180 kilometers per hour."

FPV drones are lightning-fast robots that come out of nowhere at insane speeds and explode on impact. Drones have altered the very essence of war, almost eliminating the element of a soldier’s luck. War has always been about killing, but soldiers could at least hope for a stroke of luck. Now, a drone will find you, chase you, and kill you with precision.

"You step out of the dugout to take a piss—one drone is already hovering above you, another flies in immediately, and drops a grenade. The faggots have two drones for every one of our soldiers: one just watches, the other carries ‘eggs’ [grenades]. If four guys are moving through the bushes, eight drones are flying, waiting for you to stop—then they drop their payload. And at night, they see even better."

"They only stop flying if there’s fog. They have thermal cameras—that’s why we don’t light fires in dugouts, even at night. The guys were patching me up in the dugout, and around midnight they tried to heat up some tea—immediately, they were spotted, and an FPV drone hit the dugout."

Scout drones, grenade-dropping drones, and FPVs are all interconnected: the scout locates the target and precisely directs the grenade-droppers, FPVs, or other weapons. Thanks to drones, mortars have also become far more accurate. Scout drones follow soldiers when they try to enter or leave positions. Anyone who stops for even a minute becomes a target for a grenade drop. And agile FPVs can easily catch up to someone on the move. Both Russian and Ukrainian channels are full of videos reveling in the panic of soldiers being chased by FPVs.

"Before, we’d march 11 kilometers to reach positions. Now, even covering a kilometer is impossible—you step out, and a drone is already hovering. An FPV drone comes in, you hear it—you have to run into the woods, into the thickets. You look for something it might get caught on, some branches, but there’s nothing, because the bushes are already shredded. Either it loses you, or you can try shooting it with your rifle, or it lands right on you. Well, when you want to live, fear gives you long legs."


The next section contains shocking information on the amount of death wrought by drones:

"We’re walking, we see it—we hide. But you don’t know what’s linked to that drone. It could be an RPG, it could be a thermobaric charge—each one works differently. If it’s thermobaric, hiding behind a tree won’t help; it’ll just kill you. But with an RPG, the shrapnel is big, so you can hide."

This means the drone can automatically guide various types of weapons—for example, a grenade launcher with fragmentation grenades or a thermobaric "vacuum" charge that kills everything alive.

"Every time we move, we lose at least four or five killed, mostly during shift changes. The Russians are listening, they know the times when we leave our positions, and the drones start flattening the bushes. We were moving out with some guys—a drone hovered, four mines came in—four bodies, and one wounded. And even he only survived because he found an old dugout, crawled in, and ‘went two hundred’ [KIA] while they were looking for him."

I’m stunned by this statistic—five killed every time we move, most often just on the way from positions. The word "two hundreded," meaning "he died," reflects the blurred line between life and death that people on the front lines have grown used to.

"The Russians are advancing very quickly, a kilometer or half a kilometer a day, and the commanders need to hold some kind of front line," explains Taras. "So, to speed things up, orders are given that risk soldiers’ lives. Command puts pressure on our commander, and he pushes the guys. For example, instead of moving during twilight, we have to go out at night, when we’re visible on thermal imaging. They threw group after group at us—and our company got shredded. When I was wounded, there were about forty people left. We were never at full strength—only at the very beginning, but after the first mission, 30% went to the rear, and some didn’t even wait for that. At first, half the company was fighting, then a quarter, and now there are about ten people left. While I was recovering, everyone I fought with was gone.

There you have it, a clear case of Russian orcs indifferent to casualties fighting against Ukrainian elves who do anything to avoid meaningless death.

All the soldiers say that there’s a catastrophic shortage of people on the front. Units are staffed at 20%, so people sit in the trenches for weeks and months with no one to relieve them.

"We were supposed to be there for three days. The sergeant said, ‘Guys, take ammo and smokes for at least five days. Water and food will be dropped to you by Baba Yaga.’ [a drone I wrote about here] We came out after 12 days, and there were hardly any people left. A person who hasn’t been relieved for 12 days isn’t even a person anymore."

"There’s no end to the service—you come here, and you can’t leave. The only way out is either 300 or 200…"

"Or by deserting" a neighbor chimes in. "They’re just throwing meat into the grinder, and the faggots keep coming, taking five settlements every day."


Image
A baba yaga drone can carry and drop heavy objects. Originally intended for agricultural use, I wrote about them here

No mercy

Drone warfare has utterly eradicated any element of humanity from warfare. The only objective is to kill as many as possible. All attempts at saving lives become impossible:

Perhaps the main tragedy of this stage of the war is the inability to quickly evacuate the wounded. Every medical evacuation is hunted by drones, so evacuations can only happen during twilight or in fog. The wounded lie on the front lines for three to five days, suffering and dying: survival depends mainly on how quickly they can be delivered to a hospital. Attacking medical evacuations is a war crime, but drone operators do nothing else.

"He lay there for five days, poor guy, suffering—we couldn’t get out to get him," a wounded soldier says about his comrade. "In the end, I got him out myself. I forced him to eat—he was hit in the stomach too, it swelled up, twenty pieces of shrapnel. I put an anti-thermal cloak on him and on myself. And he slowly walked 700 meters to the evacuation point. We had to get him out because he was developing sepsis."

"Out of the whole battalion, maybe twenty guys are left. Mostly ‘two hundreds’—those are ‘three hundreds’ who weren’t evacuated in time. Armored vehicles can only come in during twilight, when the drones switch cameras. But there are some crazy guys who fly in broad daylight and evacuate people."

"There was this driver in our brigade," a medic recounts. "He was driving through the forest to a position when shelling started. He stopped and crawled under the vehicle. He wasn’t responding on the radio. But they were waiting for him—so they went looking and found him under the truck. They tried to pull him out, but he wouldn’t budge, he curled up like a cat, pushing them away, not understanding what was happening."

"I was evacuated on the third try. As soon as we drove off, they started shelling us. They listen to the radio, and they’ve mapped every square meter. We were lucky there were three wounded—they wouldn’t have come for one or two."


A female paramedic explains to me why so many of the wounded are so thin:

"I was transporting a guy, really skinny. He said, ‘I won’t eat or drink anything until I get to the hospital. We went almost a month without eating or drinking much so we wouldn’t have to leave the dugout to use the toilet…’"

Drones are methodically exterminating people. The infantry is being ground down, like in a shredder, worn away like a pencil in an electric sharpener. The pieces of the puzzle are coming together in my head. Now I understand what the mobilization patrols on the streets mean and where the animalistic fear of "busification" comes from. What the soldiers are talking about isn’t shown on TV, but people somehow sense it.


Image
Still from an Azov video showing a remotely operated machine gun

This corroborates telegram discussions I translated here, where Ukrainian drone operators explain how drone warfare makes it irrelevant to save POWs. Killing those who surrender is natural in drone warfare conditions. Many drone kill videos feature a man with a white flag and no weapons, pleading for mercy

Of course, keyboard warriors in Ukraine and more often abroad will excoriate those who refuse to be mobilized as cowardly idiots. Don’t they know that the right to join NATO, even though NATO doesn’t want that ‘right’ to ever be actualized, is worth being disemboweled in a field?

The hunt for ‘faggots’

Here I used the sub-heading chosen by Meduza, because it quite fittingly conveys the murderous psychosis in question.

"Yes, Kostyan, yes!" shouts Vitalik, a young drone operator, almost yelling as Kostya and I drive him to guard an empty dugout. "People in the army fall into three types. The first type came to kill because here, they can do it with impunity. The second type came for the money, and the third—for career advancement. But those who came to defend? After just a month, they’re ready to go back to their families if they were allowed. They can punch me in the face and insist they’re ‘ideological,’ but I don’t believe it anymore. It’s either survival—for those sitting in the trenches who don’t believe this will ever end—or it’s like a drug they can’t quit. There are motivated FPV crews who work nonstop. But when you talk to them honestly, you realize it’s just a thirst for killing. We used to like it too. And then you start to rethink this bullshit, that over there, on the other side, there are also different people…"

"My dear," Kostya says to Vitalik like a kind teacher. "I completely disagree. You can’t say that there are also people on the other side. If they’re people, how will you keep going? Objectively, of course, they exist, but…"

"I’ve seen a faggot who gave first aid to our wounded. Would you send an FPV at him? Go ahead, send it, it’s not a person, damn it!"

"Why are you yelling at me!"

"People just like killing! We slept two or three hours a night for weeks, and we were fine with it! You try it, you ride that wave, and you can’t give it up. It’s a drug, you get your dose. When you roll up to a position, do your job, and leave with a good result, with loot, it’s like you’ve been on a hunt."

At first, it was all "faggots, faggots," we hated them, I craved revenge for what those creatures did. Genocide them—and it was backed up by a nice financial bonus. There are people who enjoy all this, they rewatch videos of people getting blown apart: ‘Wow, cool!’ I get them, we were like that too. ‘It’s my job, what’s the big deal?’ And you’ll start to feel the same way, it’s been proven. You watch—it’s like a movie, a game, no stress. But this will all pass, and then you have to live with it."

"We rarely talked about it. But when you’re on leave, you start analyzing this bullshit, rewatching videos. Not the ones posted online, but ours. The internet doesn’t show the daily life of the faggot soldiers, they don’t show that. But they have the same things we do, people just trying to survive. And you have to destroy them—otherwise, they’ll come here, and their daily life will be here. But when you fly in, you watch their reaction—and most of the time, it’s shock and stupor. Though sometimes we’ve run into special forces who knew what to do."


To give an idea of how this psychosis leaks into everyday life, it’s now common in Ukraine to share videos of Russian soldiers being taunted and gruesomely killed by drones. This gore porn is constantly, effusively shared by Yury Butusov, Ukraine’s most popular military journalist. He captioned one of the latest such videos as follows:

An excellent example of peaceful negotiations with individual Russians, envoys of Putin—without any preconditions from the Russian side. The warriors of the 79th Air Assault Brigade are at work, Novopavlivka front direction.

Another section describes the mentality of those who edit such content. Indeed, for those who end up in the right places with the right units, life can be quite easy. Of course, connections and finances are generally a prerequisite. And, of course, numbness to the material:

I meet up with another friend. Grisha was mobilized six months ago, reasonably deciding that waiting for the TCC [mobilization press gangs] wasn’t worth it. He got a job as a press officer in a familiar battalion and now spends his days editing drone and bodycam footage for the brigade’s social media. We sit in a café.

"How are you?"
"Good, my girlfriend came to visit me."

In the videos on Grisha’s phone—endless grenade drops. A grenade flies down onto "faggots" walking through the bushes, a small explosion, a soldier falls to the ground, curls up, and dies. Grisha scrolls to a video where a dog is gnawing on a skeleton, the arms already gone, the skull dangling lifelessly.

"I’m used to it, doesn’t bother me at all…"


An example, though not quite so gory (from what I watched), of such drone propaganda from the ultra PR-savvy Azov can be watched below. It also features English subtitles, though prepare to have all the use of ‘faggots’ changed to ‘orc’. It seems they bet on the western viewer being softer on racism than on homophobia:



Drones of mass destruction

Nevertheless, those behind the drones are sometimes forced to admit that their prey is just as human as they are. No matter - the solution is always to kill them, even if that includes Ukrainian POWs:

"Did you see how the faggot helped our guy?"
"Yeah, when new rotations come in, rookies on both sides aren’t actively participating in assaults yet, they’re studying each other, and then the real carnage starts. I also saw how our guys hit a house—it was a faggot command post—and they had our wounded as prisoners. But they decided to take them all out with artillery. We don’t know how command sees this situation, but things like that are taken lightly here, you don’t filter it too much."


The next story was particularly shocking in its description of why drone operators so often kill civilians:

After this unexpected admission, I wanted to talk to another drone operator, someone on the other side of the killing machine. In the hospital, I speak with an older man. He was shell-shocked in a dugout.

"Nighttime is the best for work, using thermals to spot generators, Starlink, any heat source. Where they come out of dugouts and don’t expect it. If someone’s good at flying, they can work through fog like it’s nothing. In one night, you can take out up to ten with grenade drops."

The man recalls the thrill of the hunt.
"You have to prepare the drone for the flight, take off properly, fly properly. They give you crap that can’t fly, a raw drone, and you have to tweak it yourself, set up the channels, the relay, so it works smoothly, in sync. You fly 13-14 kilometers behind the front line, knowing there’s some road there—there’s always someone, you’ll find something. If it’s foggy and you don’t find anyone, the flight time is short, so you have to hit something, or you’ll lose the drone…"

Listening to him, I understand why drone operators constantly attack civilian cars, houses, or people—it’s done in the last minutes of the flight when they don’t want to just lose the drone.

"Do you hunt infantry too?"

"Of course. Yesterday I chased two, dropped a three-kilogram explosive right on a person—you know, it tears them to pieces. And when they send our infantry into the meat grinder, their drones do the same thing to them."

"Do you see it up close?"
"Right up to the last moment, when you fly straight into them."

"How do you feel about that?"
The man looks at me sharply and warily. I’ve crossed a line.
"Great. You only spend one drone, and you know it’s already lying there, not running around somewhere…"

"It" meaning meat.

When I tell my friend Borya about all this, he says, "It’s like chemical weapons, they [drones] should be banned."


(More, wouldn't fit)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... re-special
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Mar 22, 2025 12:36 pm

The nuclear issue
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/22/2025

Image

Each actor, with their own interests, the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union continue to meet and plan their next steps toward the version of peace they each advocate. The most recent European Council meeting, for example, affirmed in its joint communiqué—which Hungary, a defender of the US path to resolving the war, did not join—its "consistent and unwavering support for the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders." Despite such statements, even Brussels is aware that current conditions make it impossible for Kiev to recover its lost territories without a sharp increase in the flow of military and financial assistance, which would be impossible without the United States. Hence, European countries have finally shifted their rhetoric from eternal war to armed peace. With this narrative, London, Paris, and Brussels are able to combine their desire for rearmament, demands for more sanctions against Moscow, and increased military assistance to Kiev with the rhetoric of a just peace .

However, despite the constant meetings in which member states reaffirm their unconditional support for Kiev, the European Union still cannot find its place in the unorthodox diplomatic process—including threats and inducements, facts and alternative facts— with which Donald Trump is trying to achieve a ceasefire and the start of final negotiations to achieve a lasting peace. Washington has summoned both Ukraine and Russia to meetings to be held on Monday in Saudi Arabia, the first time the conflicting parties will meet in the same place and at the same time. The meetings demonstrate the type of process underway, with the US administration as the mastermind and mediator. The White House is consolidating its approach with a dual negotiation—the United States-Russia and the United States-Ukraine—that will not merge into a single negotiation until the general lines of a future agreement have been established and the United States has secured its interests.

In this sense, despite the importance of next Monday's meeting, which will involve a type of shuttle diplomacy between the different rooms where the delegations are located, every conversation Donald Trump has with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts is closely scrutinized for signs of the direction the process will take. This is the case with the contacts this past week, during which Trump failed to get Vladimir Putin to unconditionally support the 30-day comprehensive ceasefire proposal, and it was the US president who ultimately adopted Russia's proposal for a mutual commitment not to attack energy facilities. The success of this measure has been relative, and on the night of Thursday to Friday, the Russian gas pipeline in the town of Suya, recently recaptured by Russian troops, was set ablaze after an attack. The negotiation process has quickly returned to the Minsk years, when Kiev blamed Moscow for each of its attacks, claiming that Russian troops were shelling its own positions to discredit the Ukrainian army. The parties blame each other for the attack, the media claimed yesterday, after the Ukrainian General Staff stated that "Russia itself attacked the Suya measuring station to blame Ukraine."

“The European benchmark TTF index is rising again after unconfirmed videos circulating on social media purportedly show the Suya pumping station, right on the Ukraine-Russia border, on fire. This pumping station is crucial for the return of Russian gas via pipeline,” wrote Bloomberg expert Javier Blas, who just 24 hours earlier had published a post warning of the low gas reserves in European Union countries and proposing the restoration of Russian gas transit through available pipelines as a solution. It seems clear that Russia had no incentive to bomb its own facilities, just a week after having recovered them. The attack comes the day after the latest attack on the Russian military base at Engels, with which Ukraine sought to remind that it still has weapons with which to harm Russia far from the front and the border. The bombing of Engels is not the first and possibly not the last. Even so, at a time of defeat and the loss of its main bargaining chip, Kursk, Ukraine has sought to exaggerate its power. “We hold the cards in our hands. And, more importantly, we also have a detailed map of Russia. Ukraine has joined the exclusive club of states with the technical capacity, experience, and determination to project its power far beyond its borders,” Mikhail Podolyak wrote on social media in a clearly threatening tone.

Despite the President's Office's attempt to portray Ukraine as a self-controlled actor, Ukraine's dependence on the United States has become evident this past month with Ukraine's shift from speaking of the impossibility of a ceasefire without a prior agreement on security guarantees to presenting itself as the main defender of peace as quickly as possible. The White House's humiliation did not provoke kyiv's rejection of its American ally, but rather greater submission, as did the temporary suspension of US arms and intelligence supplies later. Ukraine first accepted the minerals deal, the 30-day truce agreement proposed by the United States, and later the partial ceasefire, although both contradict kyiv's initial position.

Ukraine's subservience to its US ally is evident in the fact that Washington has the ability to continually introduce new conditions into its relationship with Kyiv. Following the last telephone conversation with Zelensky, in which Trump informed the Ukrainian president of the outcome of the call to Vladimir Putin, the United States published a mention in its statement about the ownership of Ukrainian nuclear power plants, an aspect that had not been mentioned at all until then. The issue of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in Energodar, under Russian control since March 2022, has been one of Kyiv's obsessions, which has not hesitated to use its artillery and drones to make Russia's continued presence there too dangerous and force Moscow to withdraw. The plant was likely one of the locations Zelensky had in mind when he stated that the Kursk territories under Ukrainian control would serve as leverage to recover territories in a negotiation. Having lost that possibility and with its electricity production capacity undermined by the Russian attacks of recent months, it is seeking alternatives that, as usual, do not involve negotiations with its opponent. Seven months ago, Ukraine chose to embark on its disastrous Russian adventure, in which thousands of soldiers have died without achieving any military objective other than inflicting casualties on Moscow. The start of that offensive prevented the start of negotiations in which, with the mediation of Qatar, Russia and Ukraine were to attempt to reach an agreement for a partial ceasefire similar to the one being attempted now to prevent attacks against energy infrastructure. Ukraine's actions caused, rather than a halt in the attacks, an increase, and Ukraine's energy situation is now much more serious than it was a year ago.

Following White House comments about the intention to acquire ownership of Ukrainian nuclear power plants (without specifying which ones or how many), Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to deny any possibility. “The idea surprised officials and energy experts in Kyiv. Zelensky appeared to reject it on Thursday, stating that nuclear plants were state-owned and could not be privatized, although he welcomed economic cooperation with the US side. He added that the issue of US ownership of the plants had not been directly addressed during the call,” The New York Times wrote yesterday , adding that only one plant, Zaporozhye, had come up in the conversation between the two presidents.

“Ukraine's Soviet-era nuclear power plants have been the backbone of its energy grid during the war, supplying up to two-thirds of the country's electricity. Although Moscow has relentlessly attacked Ukraine's thermal and hydroelectric plants in an attempt to cripple its grid, it has avoided attacking nuclear facilities, which could trigger a radiological catastrophe,” explains the article, which does not mention that Ukraine has indeed attacked one of the plants, the only one under Russian control, always alleging Russian self-bombing. The New York Times also recalls Westinghouse's contracts to supply nuclear fuel to Ukrainian power plants, which sought a way to avoid trading with Russia in that sector as well, a sign of US economic interests in Ukraine. However, at least theoretically, the United States could not acquire the Ukrainian nuclear plants, owned by Energoatom, since they cannot legally be privatized.

On Thursday, Zelensky denied the possibility of Washington acquiring any of Ukraine's nuclear power plants. However, in his usual style of emphatically stating something only to later qualify it and end up defending the opposite, the Ukrainian president added a nuance. "We are open to discussing whether the United States wants to invest in modernizing the plant, but not its ownership. We are not going to discuss that issue," Zelensky stated. In the same appearance, he added, referring to the Energodar facility, that "it is dangerous because Russia controls the nuclear plant. It is not operational because Russia does not know how to operate it." The Ukrainian president is trying to make people believe that Russia, one of the major nuclear powers, whose experts were trained in the Soviet Union, the country that built the plant, or with its legacy, is not capable of operating such infrastructure. Zelensky, who opened the door to the United States managing the plant if Ukraine recaptures it, added that “recovering the plant alone is not enough because it must have the proper infrastructure, water supply, technical personnel, and many other necessary steps.”

Over the past week, Donald Trump and his team have repeatedly referred to the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, implying that it would be demanded from Russia as a concession to Ukraine. With his words, Zelensky implicitly joins this demand, but adds one more wish. The plant is not enough, and kyiv wants more territory, a way to introduce an island into Russian territory, a Ukrainian Trojan horse. Ukraine tried to obtain this with an amphibious assault military operation to capture the plant, which resulted in utter failure and several soldiers killed before even reaching the other bank of the Dnieper. Now, with much of its strength resting on its allies, the United States' ability to pressure Russia is Ukraine's only hope of recovering the lost nuclear plant or any of the other territories in southern Ukraine or Donbass.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/22/la-cu ... nuclear-2/

Google Translator

******

From cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
⚡️The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation as of 22 March 2025.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.

In the Belgorod direction, units of the North group of forces inflicted losses on formations of a mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Grunovka, Loknya, Sadki and Turya in the Sumy region.

- The Armed Forces of Ukraine lost up to 95 servicemen, a tank, two combat armoured vehicles, 14 vehicles and six artillery pieces.

Units of the West group of forces improved their tactical situation. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Cherneshchyna, Andreyevka in the Kharkiv region, Novomykhaylovka and Novoye in the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The enemy's losses amounted to more than 220 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, including the M113 armored personnel carrier made in the USA, four cars and three field artillery pieces, including two of Western manufacture. An ammunition depot was destroyed.

Units of the "Southern" group of forces occupied more advantageous lines and positions. They inflicted losses on formations of a heavy mechanized, two mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a territorial defense brigade and two National Guard brigades in the areas of the settlements of Alexandropol, Novaya Poltavka, Seversk, Katerynivka and Ivanopolye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The enemy lost up to 315 servicemen, five combat armored vehicles, six cars, four artillery pieces and an ammunition depot.

Units of the "Center" group of forces improved their position along the forward edge. Defeated the formations of two mechanized, a ranger, and an assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a marine brigade, and a national guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Novopavlovka, Krasnoarmeysk, Udachnoye, Dimitrov, Troitskoye, and Alekseyevka of the Donetsk People's Republic.

The losses of the Ukrainian armed formations amounted to over 500 servicemen, six armored combat vehicles, including an M113 armored personnel carrier made in the USA, 14 vehicles, and five field artillery guns.

Units of the "East" force group continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses. Defeated the formations of the mechanized, airmobile, and ranger brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Otradnoye, Fedorovka, and Veseloye of the Donetsk People's Republic.

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 165 servicemen, a tank, six vehicles, and three field ammunition depots.

Units of the "Dnepr" force group improved their tactical position. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of the mountain assault brigade and two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Pridneprovske, Antonovka in the Kherson region and Kamenskoe in the Zaporizhia region.

- Up to 85 servicemen, 12 vehicles, two field artillery guns and an ammunition depot were destroyed.

Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups destroyed military airfield infrastructure facilities, ammunition depots, as well as enemy manpower and equipment concentrations in 135 areas.

Air defense systems destroyed a MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, shot down five JDAM guided aerial bombs and five HIMARS multiple launch rockets made in the USA, as well as 142 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed:

- 659 aircraft,
- 283 helicopters,
- 47,861 unmanned aerial vehicles,
- 601 anti-aircraft missile systems,
- 22,437 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
- 1,530 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles,
- 22,808 field artillery pieces and mortars,
- 33,243 units of special military vehicles.

***

Colonelcassad
In Ukraine, the use of weapons by the National Guard against civilians has been officially legalized. Now units like the banned Azov and Lyut have received the green light to use force to suppress dissatisfied people.

It is obvious that Zelensky seriously fears a popular uprising against his government and is preparing tools to deal with dissenters in advance.

The new law should also facilitate forced mobilization - after all, now anyone who tries to resist "busification" can be shot at.


And remember the degenerates who shouted about "Yanukovych's dictatorial laws"...
How is freedom of speech and assembly? Is everything okay?

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*******

The Azov Lobby
A new Substack about Ukraine's Azov movement
Moss Robeson
Mar 13, 2025

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Since the fall of 2022, my focus began to shift from the “Bandera Lobby” to a new phenomenon that I can only call the “Azov Lobby,” when neo-Nazis from the now-famous Azov unit in the National Guard of Ukraine started visiting the United States, and Washington in particular. My obsession with the contemporary OUN-B was rooted in the fact that (almost) nobody else acknowledged its existence. For example, Michael Colborne, who wrote a book about the Azov movement (that came out days after the Russian invasion) and thereafter went completely silent on the topic, has said I’m a “complete loon, avoid him at all costs,” because the OUN-B “doesn’t exist anymore.” (Apologies to my long-time subscribers.) Now that there is (almost) nobody else keeping tabs on — and writing about — Ukraine’s most powerful neo-Nazi movement, I’ve felt obligated to be on the look out for Azovites coming to the United States, at the very least. Since 2022, I’ve written more than 20 articles about Azov (and reposted some here), which certainly doesn’t make me an expert. But I’m not an OUN expert, either. Anyway, I hope nobody minds that I’m putting you all on the “Azov Lobby Blog” mailing list.

The Azov Lobby (2022-24)

Azov Delegation Visits U.S. — Part One (Sep. 22, 2022), Part Two (Oct. 5, 2022)

Ukrainian Neo-Nazi Visits U.S. — Azov Regiment photographer travels to DC and NYC, Part One (Nov. 10, 2022), Part Two (Dec. 3, 2022)

The Azov Lobby — Part One: Growing Networks to ‘Support Azov’ (Jan. 15, 2023); Part Two: The Intermarium Project (Feb. 5, 2023); Part Three: ‘Support Azov’ vs. ‘Azov One’ (Jun. 14, 2023)

A Special Branding Operation to Nazify Ukraine — Part One: Far-right underbelly of Ukraine’s ‘most powerful brand’ (Jan. 17, 2023); Part Two: M-TAC revisited (Mar. 14, 2023); Part Three: Zelensky boosts crypto-Nazi ‘military community’ (Aug. 8, 2023)

Another Azov delegation visits the United States (Jun. 11, 2023)

‘Ukraine Belongs to Us’ (Jul. 17, 2023) — Azov Lobby updates

‘Who is Afraid of Far-Right?’ (Aug. 15, 2023) — Azov and Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation

Azov Brigade Invades London, Greeted as Liberators (May 29, 2024) — Warm welcome for neo-Nazi movement in England

‘This is Where the Presidents Play’ (Jul. 1, 2024) — Petraeus hosts golf tournament for neo-Nazis at Joint Base Andrews

‘Gandalf’ and ‘Azov 2.0’ (Sep. 2, 2024) — An Azov intelligence officer and propaganda about ‘depoliticization’

Did ‘Our Little Baby’ Make a Nazi International? (Sep. 11, 2024) — Ukrainian military intelligence and ‘Nation Europa’

‘Love is Blind’ Meets Azov (Oct. 1, 2024) — American Azov veteran co-stars in Netflix reality TV show

Azov Goes to Brussels (Oct. 17, 2024) — NATO headquarters welcomes Azov Brigade

Valhalla and the Black Sun (Oct. 22, 2024) — Nazi paganism and the Azov movement

‘Junger,’ ‘Steiner,’ and ‘Terror’ (Oct. 24, 2024) — The neo-Nazi ‘Special Forces’ that recaptured a ‘Russian stronghold’

‘100% Gentle Azovization’ (Nov. 1, 2024) — Neo-Nazis train Ukraine’s Presidential Brigade, and top instructor calls Ukrainians slaves that must be weaponized

‘WW3 is Game On’ (Nov. 10, 2024) — Azov intelligence chief speaks at inaugural military technology conference by new venture capital firm betting big on WW3

Kyiv Youth Forum: Nazis Are Our Future (Nov. 12, 2024) — Azov stars at NATO-sponsored youth conference

Match Made in Azov (Nov. 16, 2024) — Associated Press whitewashes neo-Nazi love story

Which Way Ukrainian Hooligan? (Dec. 31, 2024) — Nazis at a Crossroads: ‘Nation Europa’ or European Union

https://banderalobby.substack.com/p/the-azov-lobby

******

Is a diplomatic solution still possible after Kiev’s latest betrayal?

Lucas Leiroz

March 21, 2025

Immediate violation of infrastructure agreement shows how untrustworthy the Kiev regime is.

Recently, a new attempt at diplomatic rapprochement between the United States and the Russian Federation took place with a telephone conversation between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. This conversation, which took place on March 18, lasted more than two hours and resulted in some progress in the search for a “humanitarian moderation” in the conflict in Ukraine. However, the peace issue is much more complex, and expectations for a lasting agreement remain extremely low. Furthermore, events since the call have made it clear that the Kiev regime continues to be an unpredictable and unstable actor, which puts any possibility of a ceasefire or peaceful resolution at risk.

The intransigence of Kiev and its supporters

Despite attempts at rapprochement, concrete progress has been limited and the ceasefire agreement proposed by Trump is unlikely to succeed. Although Putin has expressed a willingness to reach a truce, he has stressed that any possibility of a pause in hostilities would depend on concrete guarantees, such as monitoring Ukrainian actions along the contact line and stopping forced mobilization and the shipment of foreign weapons to Kiev. In addition, it would be necessary to stop any Western sharing of intelligence data. However, the Western side does not seem able to fully comply with such demands.

Still, some significant steps have been taken to reduce the violence of the war. Both sides agreed to suspend attacks on infrastructure targets for 30 days. In addition, a prisoner exchange was agreed, which is already underway, and Ukrainian injured soldiers were transferred back to Kiev. Moscow also pledged to engage in discussions to create a new maritime security architecture in the Black Sea.

As expected, the first violation of the terms of the infrastructure deal occurred shortly after the agreement that both sides should cease attacks on these targets. Ukrainian forces carried out attacks on oil facilities in the Krasnodar region of Russia, an act that was a clear demonstration of the Zelensky regime’s inability to fulfill its commitments. This incident only confirms that Kiev acts like a criminal state, ignoring international treaties and disregarding any possibility of constructive dialogue. Instead of seeking an end to the suffering of the Ukrainian population, Kiev seems more interested in prolonging the conflict, adopting a strategy of terror to pressure its adversary.

It is important to emphasize that the failure to comply with the agreement has not been condemned by the neo-Nazi regime’s European partners, who resist diplomacy and continue to support Ukrainian state terrorism. Despite the efforts of Trump’s US, Europe continues to be a destabilizing agent in the conflict, endorsing all forms of pro-war intransigence.

The impossibility of trusting Ukraine

For Moscow, the lack of trust in Kiev’s intentions is constant. The behavior of the Ukrainian regime, which has systematically violated the agreements it signed since the Maidan Revolution, makes it clear that there is no room for a real and lasting understanding. Kiev’s strategy has been, since the beginning of the conflict, focused on acting irreversibly, seeking an all-out war, without actually seeking peace. Even with the good will shown by Putin in many aspects, Russia cannot ignore the fact that the Ukrainian government still acts as a terrorist agent, which continually defies any attempt at peace – something that became clearer than ever after the attack on the Krasnodar oil infrastructure.

No matter how much the United States try to broker a peaceful solution, the reality is that Kiev is unwilling to accept any kind of deal that does not favor its ambitions. Even in the face of Trump’s de-escalation proposals, the Ukrainian government insists on continuing the offensive, hurting any attempt to establish genuine peace. This makes any agreement weakened before it is even implemented.

The military solution as an inexorable path

With Kiev’s continued refusal to comply with agreements, the only viable alternative for Russia seems to be a military solution. Diplomacy, as much as it is desired by many, is being directly sabotaged by the stance of a regime that does not seek peace, but rather the prolongation of the conflict. Washington has shown itself powerless to control the actions of its (former) Ukrainian ally. Even with Trump’s attempt to lead to a de-escalation, countries such as the United Kingdom and members of the European Union continue to support Kiev unconditionally, fueling the war and hindering any real diplomatic progress.

In this scenario, Russia no longer sees any advantage in continuing to wait for a Ukraine willing to engage in dialogue. The fact is that the longer the conflict goes on, the more Ukraine loses in terms of resources and capabilities. Russia’s military victory on the battlefield seems increasingly inevitable, and Washington, faced with this reality, is desperately trying to create a new moment of rapprochement. However, the lack of control over Kiev and its Western allies makes any attempt at peace a failed mission.

With Ukrainian losses increasing exponentially, the pressure on the regime is expanding. If Kiev authorities do not make a decision to abide by the current Russian peace terms, the only remaining option will be not only the continuation of the war, but also the expansion of Russian strategic and territorial interests.

Given Kiev’s unchanging stance, it is reasonable to conclude that at this point any possibility of a peaceful resolution seems unrealistic, and a military solution becomes, once again, the only viable alternative for Moscow.

After all, if Kiev is not capable of fulfilling even a simple agreement like an infrastructure ceasefire, how will it be able to ensure permanent peace?

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... -betrayal/

******

Brief Summary from the Frontline, March 20, 2025

The Russian Army Creates Opportunities for Consolidating Bridgeheads. Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Mar 20, 2025

Kupyansk Direction

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The Russian Armed Forces have advanced deeper into the enemy's defenses and established another bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskol River, securing a position between the settlements of Krasnoye Pervoye (Krasnoe 1) and Kamenka. This development sets the stage for the consolidation of all bridgeheads on the western bank.

In the area of Dvurechnaya, Russian units are advancing along the riverbed, disrupting the enemy's ability to regroup.

Armed Forces of Ukraine formations are being defeated in the areas of Kondrashovka, Malaya Shapkovka (Malaya Shapovalka on the map), and Tishchenkovka, where Russian forces are also making progress (Kondrashovka wouldn't fit, but it's just to the east of Tishchenkovka, which is spelled "Tyshenkovka" on the map). Capturing Kondrashovka will enable control over the enemy's supply routes across the entire northwestern sector of the Kupyansk direction.

Liman Direction

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ЛБС 01.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.

Russian forces have successfully merged bridgeheads in the areas of Ivanovka and Makeevka into a single front, advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Nevskoye. Control has also been expanded in the Novolyubovka area. Russian units are advancing from Ivanovka towards Novoye and from Novolyubovka towards Yekaterinovka, continuing to expand their control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and tightening their grip on enemy logistics.

In the Torskoe area, Russian forces maintain fire control over AFU supply routes, striking between Torskoe and Yampolovka, Torskoe and Lyman, as well as between Stavki and Kolodezi.

South-Donetsk Direction

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 1st, 2025. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary.

Russian troops have intensified operations near the road connecting Velikaya Novosyolka and Bogatyr, threatening AFU supply lines, as Bogatyr serves as a major logistics hub in this sector.

West of the Mokrye Yaly River, Russian forces are advancing towards Veseloe. The enemy attempted a counterattack, which was successfully repelled.

The enemy also tried to counterattack from Volnoye Pole and Shevchenko. In some areas, they were pushed back to their initial positions, while in others, Russian troops managed to seize enemy positions, gaining control over strategic heights.

Between Novosyolka and Volnoye Pole, Russian units have advanced, penetrating enemy defenses and disrupting their coordination.

Despite AFU resistance, Russian forces continue to strengthen their influence across the entire direction.

Zaporozhye Direction

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ЛБС 01.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Активности=Activity.

The Russian Army continues to advance. Following the liberation of Stepovoye, control is being expanded north of the settlement, with forces securing nearby heights.

Intense clashes are ongoing near Lobkovoe, where clearing operations continue after successful assaults by the 247th Airborne Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces.

Assault operations are also underway in the areas of Shcherbaki and Malye Shcherbaki. These settlements are key points for advancing towards Orekhov from the west.

The offensive towards Orekhov is also developing from the south, where Russian forces have advanced towards Novodanilovka. Fighting is already taking place near the village. Armored vehicles and aviation are actively used to suppress AFU defenses in this sector. Consolidating new positions is significantly complicated by the lack of sufficient tree cover.

https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/ ... -frontline

******

Who is Opposing Peace in Ukraine?
Posted by Internationalist 360° on March 20, 2025
Dmitri Kovalevich

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As Trump reshapes U.S. policy on Ukraine, Zelensky faces mounting pressure, exposing the West’s contradictions in prolonging the war.

March 2025 marks the beginning of a fourth year of the military conflict in Ukraine. Kiev, its sponsors in Europe and the United States, are proving unwilling to end the war being waged despite mounting evidence they are facing a major political and military defeat.

Zelensky vs Trump?

The five-year, electoral mandate dating from May 2019 of Volodymyr Zelensky as president of Ukraine expired ten months ago. Yet on February 28, Zelensky staged a widely publicized quarrel with the new US administration in Washington headed by Donald Trump. The administration reacted, in turn, with a dramatic suspension of US arms shipments and sharing of intelligence and satellite data. Without this data, Ukrainian troops are ‘blinded’ because US military specialists have played a key role in helping choose Russian targets and helping operate complex rocket and missile weaponry. Particular valuable are the images provided, with US government approval, by US commercial satellite imaging company Maxar.

The ‘suspensions’ were very short-lived. A meeting in Saudi Arabia on March 11 between the Kiev government and the Trump administration saw a renewal of the briefly-disrupted partnership between the two after its brief interruption in supplying military data and equipment. The meeting issued a proposal to Russia (better described as a threat) prepared in advance by Washington for a 30-day ‘ceasefire’. Critics in Russia and abroad say the proposal would allow the Ukraine Armed Forces to rest and regroup. If Russia turned it down, the Western powers could then condemn it for refusing peace.

Every serious analyst is pointing out that the ceasefire proposal does not at all address Russia’s well-publicized minimum conditions for a peace settlement. In other words, the plan is something of a trap for Russia. For that reason, it will not see the light of day.

Zelensky was absent from the Ukraine delegation in Saudi Arabia. He remains apprehensive over the prospect that Trump may wish to replace him and could do so at any time. Ukrainian political analyst Kost Bondarenko, who now lives abroad, explained on Telegram on March 4 that Zelensky is no longer listening to anyone, including those in his personal entourage. “He is acting hysterically and capriciously, recognizing only his own claimed righteousness. He doesn’t even listen to Yermak [head of the Office of the President of Ukraine]. His egocentrism has made Ukraine hostage to his whims.”

Europe benefits from the war

Zelensky is seeking more support from his patrons in the European Union and becoming more dependent on them, especially on the government of Great Britain. The latter continues to encourage him to sacrifice the people of Ukraine in a losing war against Russia.

Former Ukrainian (now Russian) political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko told an interview on March 7 that the only difference between the Trump regime in Washington and the leading governments of the European Union is that ‘liberal’ Europe wants a consolidated West under a ‘liberal’ image while the right-wing, conservative Trump regime wants a united West focused on weakening and paralyzing Russia while simultaneously weakening China.

“Trump’s goal is not to make life easier for Russia. Trump’s goal is to get a peace that is acceptable to America. So far, everything that Trump formulates is absolutely unacceptable to us.”

Another former Ukrainian and now Russian political analyst Andrey Vajra told a Crimea news broadcast in February that the war in Ukraine has helped the European elites to appropriate billions of euros. “Europeans understand perfectly well that the war is lost. But the European elite needs to continue stealing [from weapons supplying and the multitude of forms of ‘aid’]. I have already explained how it is possible to continue stealing billions of euros so long as the killings continue in Ukraine. Far more millions of euros can be had. That’s why the European leaders are clinging to a warmaking Ukraine.”

In early March, the head of German intelligence, Bruno Kahl, stated in an interview with the state-run Deutsche Welle that it would be ‘safer’ for Europe if the war in Ukraine continued for another five years. He criticized the Trump administration, saying the kind of swift end to the war being voiced by Trump “would enable the Russians to focus their energy against Europe”. This suggested ‘long war’ against Russia is the new, official theme of EU leaders as they strive to convince their populations of the need to massively expand military spending.

Even former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko (2007-2010) of the Batkivshchyna faction in the Ukrainian legislature says she is outraged by Kahl’s frank admission. “Bruno Kahl for the first time officially confirmed what we were so reluctant to believe: At the cost of thousands of Ukrainian lives and the very existence of Ukraine, some people decided on a war to ‘deplete’ Russia and thereby enhance the security in Europe? I did not think that they would dare to say it so officially and openly. This explains a lot,” Tymoshenko doth protest too much. She was a key fomentor of the violent, Maidan coup in February 2014 and an ardent advocate since then of military and political confrontation with Russia.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has also stated that a peace agreement could be more dangerous for Ukraine than an ongoing war. “I understand that many people believe that a peaceful solution or a ceasefire is a good idea, but we run the risk that peace in Ukraine would actually be more dangerous than the war that is ongoing now.”

Such pro-war stances are not only due to the fact that Western companies are getting rich on fulfilling military orders. A permanent war in Ukraine appeals to many Western leaders because this would weaken and pre-occupy Russia. “Israel” has long acted on the same principle in the Middle East. It has waged bloody wars in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon to weaken these countries and prevent them from doing anything to stop “Israel’s” genocide against Palestinians and its occupation of Syrian territory.

Those who justify continued war in Ukraine make two contradictory assertions. On the one hand, they argue that the war has greatly weakened Russia and that the government there may soon collapse. Ukrainians should therefore fight just a little longer to secure ‘victory’. On the other hand, they say that Russia has become too strong and is a threat to overrun more European countries in the future. Ukrainian social networks have coined an ironic term for this contradictory belief system, calling it ‘Russophrenia’ (derived from the word ‘schizophrenia’).

The end of Ukraine’s adventure in Kursk

Disaster has befallen the Ukraine Armed Forces present in the Kursk border region of Russia. Large numbers of Ukrainian troops have become encircled—as many as 10,000 according to some Western media outlets. A March 8 report in a Ukrainian media outlet nervously reassured that the situation in Kursk “is not yet catastrophic”.

The Ukrainian military command did not issue any orders to retreat from threatened encirclements in Kursk. This repeats the experiences with earlier military encirclements in Donbass. These have allowed the Russian army to make steady and continued military advances there.

As reported by the online Politnavigator on March 7, a former advisor to the office of Zelensky, Alexei Arestovich, sees a familiar pattern to events in Kursk. “In dire conditions where encirclement is threatened, only the introduction of reserve troops can help. So we [the Ukraine Armed Forces] proceed as usual: drop in a few reserves removed from other threatened locations. These will most likely be unable to stabilize for any length of time because there are few reserves to draw upon. No one is left. Even worse is to keep the army in encirclements or threatened encirclements for too long, waiting for the political leadership to give an order to retreat. But those orders do not come. This scenario has repeated itself over and over again. We need to stop playing by such scenarios.”

Arestovich lives in exile somewhere in Europe and has said he would be a candidate in a forthcoming election for president of Ukraine should a free election take place.

On March 8-9, Russian troops managed rather easily to contain the remaining Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast and cut off re-supply routes. This was partly helped by the spring thaw because Western-supplied military equipment becomes booged down in mud; it is designed primarily for use on paved or improved gravel roads.

Ukrainian opposition blogger Anatoliy Shariy writes that the losses of the AFU in Kursk are huge – some of the biggest losses that Ukrainian servicemen can remember.

The Ukrainian grouping in Kursk was centered around the border town of Suzdha. It is the site of an important pumping and transit station for a natural gas pipeline built during the Soviet era which connects the vast gas fields of eastern Russia to markets in Ukraine and further west in Europe. In January, Ukraine shut down pipeline shipments through Suzdha, drawing sharp protests and threats of counter-measures from Hungary and Slovakia.

An ironic consequence of Ukraine shutting down the pipeline was that Russian soldiers were able to use the now-empty pipeline to advance some 15 kilometers directly into the center of the Ukrainian grouping in Suzdha. They waited days for orders. Russia then surprised and overwhelmed the embedded Ukrainian forces with a multi-pronged attack beginning on March 8. Many Ukrainian soldiers and allied mercenaries ended up stampeding into surrounding minefields.

Russian military correspondent Anna Dolgareva spoke to Russian military scouts in Suzdha and reported, “For six days, the Russian fighters sat inside the pipeline awaiting orders to move. They spent some 24 hours of difficult walking to get there. The pipeline still contained traces of methane gas and so holes were cut in the pipe along the way for ventilation.”

This operation was made possible because Ukraine shut off gas transit causing European countries to buy much more expensive liquefied gas from producers in the United States. Western sanctions against Russia have cost Europe its supply of relatively cheap Russian gas, replaced by shipments of expensive liquefied natural gas from the United States as well as gas from Norway and Algeria shipped by pipeline.

Ukrainian elite on ‘starvation rations’

Representatives of the Ukrainian political elite are today extremely worried about Zelensky’s quarrel with the new US administration that exploded into view in Washington on February 28. For most, funding from the United States is their main source of income.

Since the early 1990s, Ukraine has developed an entire class of government officials and politicians who have ‘monetized’ Russophobia and anti-communism. A key piece of moving up the career ladder has been to act the loudest in stigmatizing the former Soviet Union and modern Russian Federation, and figuring out how best to draw Western funding for such efforts. This scheme has worked well for decades, but now the apparent chaos being sown by the new Trump regime in Washington has upset the old arrangements. The chaos is merely the expression of a governing U.S. regime facing a looming defeat of its proxy war in Ukraine along with its European partners.

Some legislators realize that Zelensky’s harsh outbursts and confrontation with Trump and Trump’s vice president in Washington on February 28 could cost the country dearly, but others are betting on maintaining an aggressive, pro-war rhetoric. They are looking to the British government to help out.

Alexei Arestovich writes that Zelensky’s ‘disobedience’ is based solely on his desire to extract security guarantees for himself and his entourage. He says the problem for the White House is that “providing personal guarantees to thieves risks setting yourself up before American justice.”

Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch writes that for the Ukrainian elite, the era when it could act as a child and demand money from the ‘adult uncles’ in the West is coming to an end. The West is so used to that arrangement that Zelensky’s apparent conflicts with the U.S. administration are bewildering, a kind of ‘revolt against the boss’.

Kushch summarizes Ukraine’s situation after Zelensky’s quarrel with Trump in this way, “Like a teenager who ‘unexpectedly’ has a child and finds all responsibility now rests on him, ‘daddy’ U.S. may threaten to stop helping out as punishment for any ‘disobedience’ while ‘mommy’ Europe promises to continue giving money but not forever.”

The Ukrainian elite has been thoroughly corrupted by years of generous Western ‘aid’ handouts. It no longer knows how to earn revenue and wealth on its own. So if some character named Zelensky becomes an obstacle to the continued flow of ‘daddy’s’ money, he becomes expendable. So much the worse for him.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/03/ ... n-ukraine/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Mar 23, 2025 12:34 pm

European plans for Ukraine
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/23/2025

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“In front of several hundred military planners—mainly from Europe, but also from countries such as Australia, Canada, and New Zealand—Starmer stated that it was essential to be prepared to act quickly in the event of a ceasefire,” the Financial Times reports this week in its report on the plans of Sir Keir Starmer, one of the two candidates for European leadership of the future armed peace on what will continue to be called the Eastern Front . In his Cold War mentality, in which the European continent played a political role that the establishment has not yet understood it currently lacks, the threat from Moscow justifies NATO's eastward expansion, militarization, rearmament, and support for far-right nationalist movements that are gaining strength in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This army, reinforced with Western help not only from 2022 but since 2014, will be, according to the plans of people like Starmer and Macron, the basis of security guarantees for the Ukraine of the future, economically dependent on the West and heavily militarized.

"They have the capability, they have the numbers, and they have the frontline experience," the British Prime Minister stated during his visit to the British military headquarters in Northwood, adding that "we are not talking about something that replaces that capability, but something that reinforces it and builds on it capabilities in relation to air, water, sea, and land." Absent from the negotiations that are deciding the political framework that will sustain a ceasefire, demanding concessions from both sides, and trying to determine what the de facto borders between the two countries will be, European countries are trying to maintain some relevance by preparing plans for the day after, a time when Donald Trump has made it clear that they will have to take charge of the management and cost of everything involved in guaranteeing Ukraine's security and maintaining peace.

On March 6, in an article published by Al Jazeera , Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin opined that “European politicians may pay lip service to unwavering support for Ukraine, but the nuance is always that the United States must stay on board. When British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke of a European “coalition of the willing” to help Ukraine achieve a far better deal than Minsk “with, if necessary, boots on the ground and planes in the air,” he admitted that it is entirely dependent on “strong American support.” Ukraine and the United States have since agreed to a full 30-day truce, which, after negotiations between Washington and Moscow, became a partial 30-day ceasefire, which no one yet knows if it is still in effect.

Circumstances and the opportunistic attempt to blame Russia for the peace have finally led the European Union to shift its official rhetoric toward the merits of a ceasefire, which until a few weeks ago was described as more dangerous than war. The objective was to maintain the status quo, either through endless war until Ukraine could negotiate from a position of strength that is not foreseeable even in the long term, or through its presence in the country. From this logic arose the Anglo-French plan that Starmer and Macron presented separately to Donald Trump hours before Zelensky's humiliation in the Oval Office derailed much of the effort to attract the United States to this peace plan through force, which had no chance of being accepted by Russia, on whose signature, like Ukraine's, depends whether or not there is a document that puts an end to the war, at least temporarily.

Following the meetings chaired by Macron in Paris and those convened by Starmer in London, the British prime minister announced that they were now moving into the operational phase of preparation. To this end, he had summoned the military representatives of the countries that had participated in this apparently joint process in which France and the United Kingdom aspired to present a European plan to guarantee the security of Ukraine, a demonstration of strategic autonomy and organizational and leadership capacity that depended on the reluctant participation of the United States. Deliberately forgetting that Donald Trump's refusal to participate had been repeated repeatedly and even publicly, Starmer continued with the plans, refusing to admit that the European deterrence mission depended on Washington's participation and Moscow's acceptance. Even more oblivious to reality, Emmanuel Macron went so far as to claim that European countries did not need an agreement with Russia to introduce such a mission. No experience in international relations is required to know that if an armed mission is part of a peace agreement, that document requires the signature of all parties to the conflict.

Reality rules, even if people try to avoid it. “Putin has made it clear that he would not tolerate the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine under any peace agreement, and the military complexity of a large multilateral troop deployment is considerable. Starmer has also admitted that there is no indication so far that US President Donald Trump will provide the military ‘backstop’ that such a peacekeeping force would require,” writes the Financial Times , which admits that the British prime minister is seeking an alternative to the boots-on-the-ground plan he had tried to promote alongside Emmanuel Macron, who is now also distancing himself from the idea. According to the Financial Times , Starmer appears to be on the verge of abandoning his original idea of ​​a peacekeeping force of 30,000 European troops, “a few thousand per country,” stationed in the rear and with US cover, to focus on something like “air and sea support to defend Ukraine.” While more realistic than an armed mission that would require Russian agreement and US participation, external support without troops on the ground and assistance in maintaining a large army falls far short of the characteristics Zelensky expects from the security guarantees he demands from the same allies who denied them during the Istanbul negotiations in 2022.

Distancing himself from the original plan, though without explicitly renouncing it as a preferred option if the United States agrees to participate and force Russia to accept it, the French president is also seeking alternatives. "Emmanuel Macron is actively exploring alternatives to putting European boots on the ground in Ukraine, his plan developed with Sir Keir Starmer. The Telegraph understands that the French president is considering a mission to protect a future UN-led peace deal," writes the British outlet, introducing Macron's latest idea, which faces the same problem as his peace mission, requiring Russian support, which has veto power in the Security Council.

The French idea, which has also been rejected by Zelensky, who does not consider it a sufficient security guarantee, “comes as the prime minister shows signs of shifting his focus away from European ‘boots on the ground’ to secure a peace deal with Russia and instead focusing on air and sea support to defend Ukraine,” the British outlet adds, claiming to have sources who claim that the British air force “is in talks to have British aircraft monitor Ukrainian skies, according to proposals being discussed by Sir Keir’s ‘coalition of the willing’.”

The combination of Macron's idea of ​​a UN mission and external support from European countries to control Ukraine's skies, seas, and borders points to the real objective of the United Kingdom, France, and the European Union in general: control of what matters from afar while other troops risk a possible resumption of war on the ground, which is even more likely in the event of the country's militarization, in the way London, Paris, and Brussels want to rearm Ukraine to continue putting economic pressure on Russia and triggering a new arms race that would make the continent, split in two again, a repeat of the scenario of several decades ago. From eternal war to eternally armed peace as the axis and main justification for rearmament at the continental level.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/23/plane ... a-ucrania/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
In Sumy Oblast, our troops continued to advance near Basovka today and expanded their presence in three more areas in the northern districts of Sumy Oblast. So far, the penetrations are tactical in nature.

In Kursk Oblast, the Russian Armed Forces continue to press in the Guevo area, and also continue to press in the direction of Oleshnya, Gornal, and the border checkpoint. Trophies are being collected in the region, Ukrainian soldiers hiding in the forests are being finished off, and mine clearance is ongoing.

On the border between Kharkov and Belgorod Oblasts, the Russian Armed Forces are pushing the enemy back from Demidovka. The enemy has lost a large amount of equipment and personnel here, without achieving anything significant.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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WILL THE UKRAINIAN ARMY TURN ITS BAYONETS ON KIEV?
by Gordonhahn
March 21, 2025

As I have noted many times in noting the growing weakness of the Maidan regime and Ukrainian state, the Ukrainian army can become a major force of destruction of both regime and state. Defeat after defeat, rout after rout, military catastrophe after military catastrophe is suffered by Ukraine’s often courageous soldiers purely for the sake of the domestic and foreign political advantage of Ukraine’s leaders. Thus, from Mariupol’ to Bakhmut to Avdeevka to Krinky and now to Sudzha, Kursk, Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelenskiy and his team from his television production company and ‘Slugi naroda’ (Servants of the People) television series-turned political party have refused to allow often surrounded and beaten Ukrainian forces to withdraw in order to save lies. At some point, Ukrainian officers and soldiers will rise up to put an end to their own slaughter.

The ‘Servants of the People’ and the rest of Ukraine’s elite, by consistently privileging their personal political and domestic political propaganda needs over the lives of Ukraine’s soldiers and simple military logic, are fomenting anger and thirst for revenge among the rank-and-file troops. Numerous videos posted by them in recent months express in the most harsh terms the frustration, anger, pain, and hatred towards Zelenskiy and his ‘Servants’ that many among the officer corps and troops feel. See, for example, this video of an incensed Ukrainian soldier threatening Zelenskiy and the entire eilte: “You will pay for everything” (https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1898804283140673685).

As I noted previously the models one should keep in the back of one’s mind are the previous uprisings and revolutions prompted by war, particularly defeats in wars. In 1917 Russia 1917 and Weimar Germany demoralized, disgruntled, and degraded soldiers turned their bayonets against the powers-that-be. In 1917 Russia this occurred in the literal sense, as soldiers became the third part of the Bolshevik ‘holy trinity’ of ‘workers’, peasants, and soldiers,’ who populated the Party, overthrew the Romanov dynasty and then the Provisional Government the Red Army, and populated the apparat of the new Soviet state. In Weimar Germany defeated soldiers, disgusted by the ‘stab in the back’ of the Versailles Treaty, became the backbone of the National Socialist or Nazi Party. Adolph Hitler himself was one of those distraught and revenge-seeking soldiers. Even in victory, soldiers can be transformed by the war experience in wholly unpredictable ways. Russia’s victory over Napoleon and rise to leadership in Europe intensified the Imperial Army officers’ sense of playing a historical role which transitioned into a sense that Russia needed to abandon autocracy and institute constitutional rule if it hoped to maintain its position in the international vanguard.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy recently (January 2025) stated that Ukraine’s armed forces amount to some 800,000 troops (https://t.me/stranaua/183652). This sounds impressive, though is likely overstated – as is Zelenskiy’s wont – by several hundred thousand at this point. Nevertheless, this still represents a formidable force not only for Russian forces to attrit but for Ukrainian politicians to manage. They are not managing it well. As I have demonstrated numerous times previously; the Ukrainian armed forces, like the entire state, is rife with the most cynical and massive corruption–a corruption that is intensifying as the war is being lost and personal futures need to be bought (https://gordonhahn.com/2025/03/01/ukrai ... parts-1-2/).

Putting aside the unending series of battlefield defeats, the army is being staffed now by unwilling civilians, many dragged off the street, from their homes, from their wives and children and forced to fight in whjat many Ukrainians now understand is a losing cause. Much of the population is hiding or hiding their husbands, sons, brothers, cousins, and friends from roaming bands of state army ‘mobilizers’. Moreover, there are fewer and fewer Ukrainian volunteers. In January there less than 1,000; this, at a time when the country is in dire need of fighters to hold off the mounting Russian offensives on almost every front (https://ctrana.one/news/479428-skolko-c ... tinha.html). There are reportedly 63,000 Ukrainians missing in action (https://life.pravda.com.ua/society/upov ... in-306234/). Many who are on the rolls and supposedly fighting at the front are actually hiding in rear areas, refusing to fight (https://gordonhahn.com/2025/03/01/ukrai ... parts-1-2/). On top of more than million Ukrainian casualties (including hundreds of thousands of deaths), energy blackouts, and other hardships, much of this suffered by families with members still fighting at the front, can this end well?

Russia is reportedly demanding an 80 percent reduction of the Ukrainian army (https://t.me/stranaua/183653). Such a cut in Kiev’s armed forces — depending on when it occurs and after what level of attrition is reached – would leave hundreds of thousands of mean, angry, violence-desensitized, and perhaps armed men on the streets – an army now of likely unemployed, purposeless, malleable, and revenge-seeking men.

If or when Zelenskiy or some other Ukrainian leader signs a peace deal agreeing to forego Crimea and the four oblasts Russia has so far claimed, even if only ‘temporarily’ rather than legally, the number of enraged military men and their families will only grow, particularly among the numerous and influential ultra-nationalist and neofascist groups. Neo-fascist groups, such as Azov and, through the Volunteer Ukrainia Corps, Right Sector, are deeply embedded in the army and will be outraged about any compromises made by a Ukrainian regime with the ‘subhuman Russians’ and will seek the ‘completion of the nationalist revolution.’ Disgruntled, enraghed soldiers will be excellent recruits and fodder for the making of said revolution.

All of the above forms a matrix of potentially explosive instability and chaos that could see the substantial parts of the Ukrainian army turn it weapons against Kiev, and it informs Zelenskiy’s reluctance to participate in compromises with Russia in order to attain peace. He cannot speak about it without further demoralizing the army, outraging the neofascists, and tacitly acknowledging the power of the neofascist element in Ukrainian politics—something that Kiev has worked hard to cover up, explain away, or deny. In fact, Zelenskiy is trapped between two flames internally related to this question and in general as he is abroad caught between US pressure for peace and Russia’s advancing army. Like Ukrainian society, the Ukrainian military (and perhaps intelligence and security organs as well) are divided between those who no longer support the war or are not willing to fight, such as the coercively mobilised, and those who are virulently against peace with the Russians, such as the neofascists. This polarization of views forms the foundation of a potential civil war or at least intense internecine conflict inside Ukraine once any peace deal nears.

It is not just Zelenskiy who should consider this dangerous matrix outlined above. If a peace deal is followed by a neofascist coup in Ukraine and/or whatever remains of the country descends into chaos, what will Russia, Europe, and the U.S. do? Russia likely will be inclined to use military force, ‘breaking’ any treaty. Moscow can argue justifiably any treaty it signed was signed with a different leadership and with the coup or lack of any central regime and state order, all bets are off, and Russia must guarantee its own security by uninstalling the new Ukrainian regime. Will the U.S., no less Europe, be willing to cooperate with Russia in putting down such a coup or replacing a new, neofascist regime? If not, will there be a NATO-Russia Ukrainian War 2.0 following on 1.0 almost immediately? Will a European ‘coalition of the willing’ take on Russia? The Maidan revolt nurtured by Washington and Brussels opened up Pandora’s Box. The West continued opening up new such boxes for nearly a decade – arming Ukraine, refusing to demand Kiev fulfill its Minsk commitements, and so on — until Moscow opened up the biggest of all previous boxes. Closing these boxes and preventing the opening of the biggest Pandora’s Box may be beyond the reach of both Russia and the ‘collective west'.

https://gordonhahn.com/2025/03/21/will- ... s-on-kiev/

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Ted Snider: Ceasefire: Ukrainians Died in Vain
March 21, 2025
By Ted Snider, Antiwar.com, 3/18/25

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with a small force of around 142,000 troops. Not enough to conquer Ukraine, the invading force was sufficient to persuade Ukraine to the negotiating table. Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that was the original goal of the military operation: “[t]he troops were there to push the Ukrainian side to negotiations.”

And it nearly worked. Within weeks, in Istanbul, a negotiated peace was within reach. It was only after the United States, the UK, Poland and their NATO allies pushed Ukraine off the path of diplomacy and onto the continued path of war that Putin mobilized more troops and more resources.

As Alexander Hill explains in the newly published book, The Routledge Handbook of Soviet and Russian Military Studies, in the initial phase of the war, Russia struggled without the advantage of overwhelming numerical superiority and without committing their latest, most advanced equipment. With the U.S. and its NATO partners providing the Ukrainian armed forces not only with their most advanced weapons systems, but with the intelligence to effectively use them, Ukraine actually had “an overall technological edge during the initial phases of the war.” But the Russian armed forces proved to be very adaptable. They adopted new tactics and a much more methodical approach to the war, introduced advanced weapons systems, and demonstrated a capability to adapt to and destroy the most advanced Western weapons and equipment.

By the time the Ukrainian counteroffensive had failed to meet any of its goals, the tide had turned, and Russia was irreversibly winning the war.

At the beginning of the war in Istanbul, before the inconceivable loss of life, a negotiated end to the war could have been signed. Three years later, after the loss of more land and hundreds of thousands more lives and limbs, a similar negotiated peace will be signed, only adjusted to the current realities on the ground. Ukraine could have had a similar deal but maintained all their territory but Crimea. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have died or been injured in vain in pursuit of America’s fantasy of a NATO without limits and a weakened Russia.

Russia went to the negotiating table in Istanbul in a weaker position than it goes to the table today. It has survived the war of sanctions and isolation and won the war against Ukrainian soldiers and NATO weapons on the battlefield. Russia will be willing to enter a ceasefire, but only if they can accomplish without fighting everything they can accomplish with fighting.

Tragically, three years later, the ceasefire talks will pick up where the Istanbul talks left off. Everything in between was in vain. Witkoff has said that “[t]here were very, very what I’ll call cogent and substantive negotiations framed in something that’s called the Istanbul Protocol Agreement. We came very, very close to signing something.” He then added that “I think we’ll be using that framework as a guidepost to get a peace deal done between Ukraine and Russia.”

And if you don’t believe that the remaining differences could have been bridged and a peace signed in Istanbul, then get ready for a very long war. Because those are the very same points that will need to be negotiated if the current ceasefire proposal is to succeed.

After all the loss of land and loss of life, Ukraine will still surrender territory and NATO membership. They will not receive a security guarantee that involves a U.S. military commitment. Kursk has collapsed in a costly strategic failure and the Ukrainian armed forces are barely hanging on across the full length of the 1,000-mile front in eastern Ukraine. Russia is not going to stop the war without receiving a signed agreement from the U.S. and NATO that there will be no Ukraine in NATO nor NATO in Ukraine. And they are not going to stop the war without Crimea and at least some of the four oblasts they have annexed and a guarantee in the Ukrainian constitution of the protection of the rights of ethnic Russians in the territory that remains in Ukraine.

Putin has made clear that the idea of a ceasefire and a negotiated peace is “the right one” and that Russia “support[s] it” but that “there are questions we need to discuss” and that any ceasefire negotiations would need to address the “original causes” of the war.”

It seems clear that, before the U.S. pressured Ukraine into expressing a “readiness to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire,” they had already laid the groundwork by discussing with Russia, who can go on fighting to achieve their nonnegotiable goals, what those nonnegotiable goals are.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed, for example, that the Saudi Arabia talks with Ukraine included discussions about “territorial concessions.” On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump said that when he next talks to Putin, “we will be talking about land, we will be talking about power plants.” He said “they were already discussing ‘dividing up certain assets’.” U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has already said that any thoughts of recovering Ukraine’s lost territory is “an unrealistic objective” and an “illusionary goal.”

And, most importantly, Hegseth has also stipulated that Trump “does not support Ukraine’s membership in NATO as part of a realistic peace plan.” And Trump has shared that verdict with his NATO allies. On March 14, when NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was asked if Trump had taken NATO membership for Ukraine off the table in negotiations, he simply replied, “Yes.”

From the time Ukraine was nudged away from the negotiating table in Istanbul to the time it will return to the negotiating table, all the loss of life and land was in vain. It is preestablished that Ukraine will not recover all of its territory, and it is preestablished that they will not become a member of NATO. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have died for nothing but the pursuit of American hubris. And that should make Americans very angry.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/03/ted ... d-in-vain/

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US Lays “Minsk 3” Ceasefire Trap for Russia as Europe Prepares “Peacekeepers”
Posted by Internationalist 360° on March 20, 2025



The US proxy war in Ukraine is collapsing, prompting urgent attempts to impose a ceasefire on Russia;
This includes a European-led “peacekeeping” mission into Ukraine to freeze the conflict and create a bufferzone preventing Russia from neutralizing the threat the US has created on its border;
The fact the US is openly declaring its needs to pause the conflict in Ukraine to pursue the exact same type of conflict with China in Asia demonstrates a complete lack of sincerity regarding genuine peace;
Current US actions fall within a decades-spanning pattern of encroachment, reaching an impasse, then desperately needing to “reset” relations to rearm and reorganize ahead of the next round of hostilities;
References:

SITREP BBC – ‘Everything is finished’: Ukrainian troops relive retreat from Kursk (Mar. 17, 2025): https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q

Precedent National Security Archive, George Washington University – NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard (Dec. 2017): https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-bo

Guardian – US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev (Nov. 2004): https://www.theguardian.com/world/200

Stars and Stripes – U.S. forces help Georgian army make ‘big changes’ (2005): https://www.stripes.com/news/2005-06-

Reuters – Georgia started war with Russia: EU-backed report (Sep. 2009): https://www.reuters.com/article/idUST

RFE/RL – After Meeting Russian Foreign Minister, Clinton Hails Fresh Start (Mar. 2009): https://www.rferl.org/a/After_Meeting

Trump White House Archives – President Donald J. Trump is Ending United States Participation in an Unacceptable Iran Deal (May 8, 2018): https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/

Politico – Angela Merkel duped by Russian pranksters pretending to be Ukraine’s Poroshenko (Feb. 2023): https://www.politico.eu/article/angel

ABC News – Trump admin approves new sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine (Oct. 2, 2019): https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump

Trump White House Archives – President Donald J. Trump to Withdraw the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (Feb. 1, 2019): https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/

Evidence US DoD – Opening Remarks by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at Ukraine Defense Contact Group (As Delivered) (Feb. 12, 2025) https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches

DW – Germany set to spend big on army and infrastructure (Mar. 5, 2025): https://www.dw.com/en/germany-set-to-… Guardian – EU chief unveils €800bn plan to ‘rearm’ Europe (Mar. 4, 2025): https://www.theguardian.com/world/202

Politico – Macron turns the screws on ministers to boost defense spending (Mar. 13, 2025): https://www.politico.eu/article/emman

US DoD – Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth Greets the United Kingdom’s Secretary of State for Defence John Healey and Takes Questions From the Press (Mar. 6, 2025): https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcri

BBC – UK to host new Ukraine peacekeeping talks (Mar. 20, 2025): https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62

Guardian – Macron says Russia’s permission not needed to deploy troops in Ukraine (Mar. 16, 2025): https://www.theguardian.com/world/202

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/03/ ... cekeepers/

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European Court rules Ukraine guilty in Odessa massacre
March 20, 2025 Gary Wilson

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After driving activists into the Odessa House of Trade Unions, Ukrainian neo-Nazis set fire to the building. Then they shot and beat to death people trying to escape the inferno.

On March 13, the European Court of Human Rights delivered a scathing ruling, holding Ukraine responsible for the massacre of scores of anti-Maidan activists in Odessa on May 2, 2014.

This ruling has received limited coverage in Western media outlets, as it confirms the Ukrainian regime’s support of the neo-Nazis through its inaction and refusal to take any measures against the killers.

On that day, nearly 50 anti-fascists were massacred. Activists were attacked by a racist neo-Nazi mob and driven into the House of Trade Unions, which was then set afire. Some anti-fascists were burned alive; others were shot or beaten to death as they tried to escape the blaze. The youngest victim was just 17.

(For more on the Odessa massacre, see the interview with massacre survivor Alexey Albu conducted by Struggle-La Lucha co-editor Melinda Butterfield in Simferopol, Crimea, in September 2014.)

The Court ruled that there had been “violations of the right to life/investigation on account of the authorities’ failure to … prevent the violence in Odessa and to ensure timely rescue measures for people trapped in the fire.”

The Court decision makes clear that firefighters were instructed not to respond to emergency calls from people trapped in the city’s House of Trade Unions when it was set ablaze. The Maidan coup regime actively wanted these people to die.

The 2014 Maidan coup

In February 2014, a U.S.-backed coup overthrew the elected government of Ukraine and installed a far-right regime representing Western imperialist interests, local oligarchs and neo-Nazis. It’s known as the Maidan coup, which refers to the central square in Kiev, Maidan Nezalezhnosti, where pro-NATO rallies were staged.

Many Ukrainians resisted the Maidan coup, particularly in the working class. In the Maidan civil war, fascist gangs emerged as a force for the coup. Resistance to the coup was strongest in the eastern section of the country. In Odessa, a neo-Nazi pro-Maidan gang targeted the Odessa House of Trade Unions, near the center of the resistance. The building was firebombed and at least 46 anti-fascists and labor activists were burned alive.

The resistance to the Maidan coup has continued from 2014 to today. The independent Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic were created when the people there voted overwhelmingly (89% and 96%) to secede from the Maidan regime. They have been subjected to continuous attack since then, particularly by the Ukrainian National Guard’s Azov regiment, a neo-Nazi stormtrooper-like operation. More than 14,000 were killed in Ukraine’s war on Donetsk and Lugansk before Russia’s special military operation to stop the neo-Nazi war on these independent republics.

The U.S. had orchestrated the 2014 Maidan coup, seeking to seize control of Ukraine’s resources and to dominate the region, particularly targeting Russia. After years of bloodshed, their plan failed.

Rare earth minerals

Now, Trump wants to stop the massive military campaign against Russia (estimated cost so far is $183 billion since 2022) to focus on a bigger target: China. Don’t mistake Trump’s tactics as a pursuit of peace. Trump is demanding a massive price for ending the proxy war against Russia: Ukraine’s mineral wealth — said to be worth $13 trillion total.

As John Helmer reported, “Because the U.S. auto, aerospace, and artificial intelligence industries are heavily dependent for their supplies of lithium, titanium, and other rare earth minerals (REM) on two enemy states, China and Russia, they should be replaced as quickly as possible by a friendly source. …

“The cheapest solution is to take over the Ukrainian sources of these minerals and metals at zero cost of acquisition — zero cost because Ukraine can be pressed to hand over its sources as payback for the U.S. financing of the war against Russia.”

Who proposed this solution to Trump? “It was Elon Musk,” Helmer reports.

“His Tesla company is the largest consumer of lithium and producer of lithium batteries for electric vehicles in the U.S., with his annual tonnage exceeding the four next largest producers combined. Musk also is a large consumer of titanium, both for Tesla cars and for his SpaceX company’s rockets.

“Also, in Musk’s plans for cornering the artificial intelligence (AI) market with his xAI company, rare earth metals (REM) are essential. In fact, these metals are not rare – it’s just that they exist in low concentrations, which are difficult and expensive to extract. They are crucial components of the semiconductors that provide the computing power that drives AI. They possess uniquely powerful magnetic qualities and are excellent at conducting electricity and resisting heat.”

Trump has won Zelensky’s agreement to turn over Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. But that’s not enough. The fact is (and this isn’t being reported in any U.S. media) about 53% of the titanium, lithium, and rare earth minerals that the Ukraine regime claims are located in the four regions annexed by Russia in September 2022 (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) This is where Russia began its special military operation against the neo-Nazi incursion by the Kiev regime headed by Volodymyr Zelensky.

https://www.struggle-la-lucha.org/2025/ ... -massacre/

End the war in Ukraine, U.S./NATO out of Eastern Europe
March 21, 2025 Workers Voice Socialist Movement in New Orleans, Louisiana

It seems impossible to have a discussion with those who insist on calling for more billions for weapons, training, and mercenaries for Ukraine even after U.S./NATO wars have destroyed so many millions of lives. The cheerleaders for the U.S. war in Ukraine are as misguided and indoctrinated by the Biden regime as the dupes who believe that Trump will bring us peace. Biden’s minions, like Trump’s, stake their position on a mountain of lies, lack of information, wishful thinking, and hatred of the other while invoking high-sounding words like sovereignty, democracy, and freedom. Many cling to the ridiculous idea that Putin somehow controls Trump. This idea is a fairy tale invented by war profiteers to channel the justified hatred of Trump into support for war against Russia. In reality, both Biden and Trump want to subjugate Ukraine and Russia to U.S. capitalist control. They have different strategies to accomplish a common aim — to conquer the world for U.S. capitalist markets, labor, and resources. Trump will continue to arm Ukraine and work with the Nazi-led Ukrainian army, just as Biden did — if for no other reason than Chevron, Lockheed Martin, BlackRock, Amazon, and SpaceX demand it.

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Volodymyr Zelensky (right) with Andriy Biletsky (center) on August 14, 2023. Biletsky formerly commanded the Nazi “Azov Battalion” and now commands the much larger 3rd Army Corps of the Ukrainian Military. In 2010 Biletsky wrote, “The historic mission of our nation in this crucial moment is to lead the white races of the world in a final crusade… against the Semite-led subhumans.”

Military-Industrial-Banking Complex, enemy of all the people of the world, fully controls the White House and Congress

The first thing to admit is that both the Republican and Democratic parties have embraced the continuous buildup of the military budget, adding up to over $1.2 trillion, plus $952 billion in interest payments on a deficit that military spending caused. Not a word is spoken by the Democratic Party about this.

Secondly, we need to understand the real purpose of the military budget. On whose behalf do the president and Congress rule, regardless of administration? They rule on behalf of the major shareholders of the banks and war-profiteering firms that fund their campaigns. Whether by economic strangulation (so-called “sanctions”), invasions, coups, or bombardment, the foreign policy of the U.S. is aimed at enhancing the bloated profits of U.S. investment firms, banks, and conglomerates. Both parties pursue this mission regardless of the millions starved, maimed, or killed as a result.

There is not a single country in the world that has benefited politically, socially, or economically from a U.S. war, directly or by proxy. Certainly, the working class of the U.S. has no interest. In fact, militarism is destroying our lives.

Every year that the U.S. military budget has grown so has the power of the most reactionary sector of the capitalist ruling class. A large part of the wealth amassed by the Nazi Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and JD Vance has come out of U.S. taxpayers’ pockets as subsidies and government contracts to the war-profiteering corporations in which Musk, Bezos, and Vance are invested, including SpaceX, Blue Origin, Amazon, Palantir, and Anduril. The austerity and repression of all civil, economic, and academic rights occurring under Trump is directly tied to the buildup of the U.S./NATO war budgets. In other words, Trump is a monster the Democratic Party helped to create.

Those who clamor for more NATO bases, more weapons, and ever younger Ukrainian conscripts have no right to decry the rise of right-wing governments in Europe, which are slashing social benefits and brutally repressing protest. This is what happens when war profiteers are allowed to raid government treasuries for ever higher profits.

History without lies: Zelensky and Biden plundered Ukraine, bombed and terrorized the Donbass

For years — especially since the U.S.-orchestrated coup in 2014 — foreign capitalists have plundered Ukraine of its public assets and impoverished its people. By 2020, Ukraine had become the poorest country in Europe, mainly due to the privatizations and cuts to public services dictated by the U.S.-controlled International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is no accident that the U.S.-sponsored buildup of openly Nazi forces like the Azov battalion coincided with the rapid decline in Ukrainians’ living standards. Austerity requires repression abroad and at home.

The looting of the economy and the vicious scapegoating and persecution of ethnic Russians and other minorities led the people of the Donbass and Crimea to rebel. In 2014, the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics were formed as a defense against the dictatorship of the U.S.-backed Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president who declared that “our children will go to school, to kindergartens – their children [in the Donbass] will sit in cellars.” Poroshenko made this speech as the Ukrainian National Guard was shelling apartment buildings in the Donbass with U.S.-made artillery. Since 2014, U.S. training, funds, and arms have enabled the Ukrainian military to kill tens of thousands of people who have resisted Kiev’s program of Nazism and austerity. Until this day, the Donbass has suffered most from the war, where battles still rage daily.

Like the eventual secession of the republics of the Donbass and Crimea, the special military operation declared by the Russian Federation in 2022 is also an act of self-defense. Few Americans fully appreciate that the people of the Soviet Union lost 27 million people in the fight to defeat the German Nazis and their collaborators, such as the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), whose members were supported by the CIA for decades after WWII. The more than 100,000 U.S.-armed and trained soldiers amassed at the border of the Donbass on February 23, 2022 were flying the flags and shouting the slogans of the OUN. Imagine if open Nazis were approaching your border with tanks and rocket launchers.

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Dozens of military bases have encircled Russia in the last two decades despite a 1990 promise by the U.S. to cease the NATO buildup along Russia’s Western Border. Many of these bases are armed with nuclear weapons. Just this month, Poland’s right-wing president Andrzej Duda called on the U.S. to deploy nuclear warheads to Polish territory.

The 2015 Minsk agreement between Ukraine and Russia was worked out to cease hostilities and afford the Donbass republics some autonomy, but the U.S. and Ukraine tore it up. Ukrainian violations of the ceasefire skyrocketed in the days leading up to the February 24, 2022. In other words, Biden initiated the current war against Russia using Ukraine as a proxy.

Zelensky: Dictator and thief, servant to BlackRock

“We have already managed to attract attention and have cooperation with such giants of the international financial and investment world as Black Rock, J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Such American brands as Starlink or Westinghouse have already become part of our Ukrainian way. Your brilliant defense systems – such as HIMARS or Bradleys – are already uniting our history of freedom with your enterprises… everyone can become a big business by working with Ukraine.”

—Volodymyr Zelensky in a January 23, 2023 address to [U.S.] National Association of State Chambers [of Commerce]


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Zelensky meeting with Larry Fink (center), CEO of BlackRock. In November 2022, BlackRock and the Ukraine Ministry of Economy signed a memorandum of agreement to coordinate investment in Ukraine.

Far from being a hero, the embezzler-in-chief Zelensky has facilitated the plunder and destruction of Ukraine while enriching himself by as much as $400 million, according to a report by Seymour Hersh. His government has canceled union contracts for 70% of the country’s workers, and he’s made it legal for companies to increase the work week from 40 to 60 hours. Civilians are routinely grabbed off the street for the army or are shot when they resist. Detention camps for political prisoners are now widespread throughout the territory under Kiev’s control. Press freedom has been crushed, and opposition parties are banned. The Zelensky government is now openly threatening to execute political prisoners like the Kononovich brothers, who are persecuted solely for opposing the U.S./NATO war.

While condemning thousands of Ukrainians to death on the frontlines, Zelensky has signed away Ukraine’s sovereignty to BlackRock. This U.S. investment company controls $10 trillion worth of the world’s resources and has controlling shares in most U.S. war-profiteering corporations. BlackRock is the same company that oversaw the corporate bailouts at the beginning of the COVID pandemic as millions died. They also got billions from the 2008 bank bailouts while millions of working people lost homes, jobs, and pensions.

BlackRock loots U.S. and NATO-member government treasuries to boost the profits of the weapons, fuel, logistics, and tech companies under its control. The bulk of the $100 billion in so-called U.S. ‘aid’ to Ukraine is dispersed to these companies through government contracts. As hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians have lost lives and limbs, profits have soared. Chevron, Lockheed Martin, Palantir, and SpaceX (which includes Musk’s Starlink) have also profited from the U.S./Israeli genocidal assault on Gaza.

Now that the billionaire owners of BlackRock have nearly exhausted Ukraine’s supply of soldiers, they want controlling shares of Ukraine itself: 50% “of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets…and other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets,” per the draft of Trump’s “minerals deal,” signed by the U.S. Treasury and Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.

It’s never been about Putin

The U.S. invasion of Iraq had nothing to do with Saddam Hussein. The U.S. invasion of Panama had nothing to do with Manuel Noriega. Just like Putin, Hussein, and Noriega were once U.S. allies. It was not until these countries declared that they would not allow the U.S. to dominate them economically and steal their resources that the U.S. turned and waged war against them. Putin was only judged to be “criminal” by the U.S. when his government resisted the takeover of Russian state oil and gas companies by foreign hedge funds. But, to mask their real aims, every imperialist war requires a bogeyman, even if it means the demonization of a once-faithful client.

As for their real aims, look to Libya whose people enjoyed the highest standard of living in Africa until their country was destroyed by U.S./NATO bombs. The same U.S./NATO cheerleaders that demonized the Pan-African leader Gaddafi and celebrated his lynching by U.S.-backed forces fail to mention that the Libya of today is a country torn apart by warlords, complete with open slave markets. Or look to Syria. The Biden administration never missed a chance to condemn Bashar al-Assad even as the U.S. imposed an economic blockade on Syria and occupied as much as a third of its territory in the oil-rich northeast. Now that Assad has been replaced with the ‘help’ of U.S. Special Forces, the government of Abu Mohammad al-Julani (aka Ahmed al-Sharaa) is mass executing its political opponents and selling off Syrian state property to foreign capitalists.

Democratic Party politicians cry about Putin’s ‘authoritarianism’ but give standing ovations to Benjamin Netanyahu as he carries out genocide in Palestine. They wine and dine Saudi monarchs while political dissidents in Saudi Arabia are punished with crucifixion. Supporters of the war in Ukraine decry the rule of “oligarchs” in Russia while five U.S. billionaires own more wealth than 170 million Americans, and the Nazi billionaire Elon Musk dictates U.S. policy. It’s worth remembering that before Musk was sieg-heiling at the presidential podium, he was getting billions in contracts with the Biden administration. We ought to deal with our oligarchs and let Russians deal with theirs.

All the hypocritical cries about Putin are cover for the capitalists who want Russia to be just like their neocolonies in Eastern Europe. With “their [Ukrainian] blood and our bullets,” as the war criminal Oliver North put it, U.S. capitalists want to use the Ukrainian military as a battering ram to achieve their conquest.

Trump may have reason to believe that he can more effectively carry out the imperialist takeover of Russia by bribery and extortion rather than open war. For one, Trump hopes that Putin can convince a sector of the Russian capitalists to sell out their country to Goldman Sachs. He is also trying to take advantage of Russia’s desire for peace to win them away from an alliance with China, the center of the imperialists’ crosshairs. We hope that, for the sake of all the people of Russia and China, Putin will not fall into this trap.

Destroying U.S. workers’ lives to attack China – Biden and Trump unite

While the call to tax billionaires is right, it means nothing if U.S. tax revenue continues to be sucked up by the war machine.

Through the investment banks, the war-profiteers have infiltrated of almost every sector of production in the U.S.. Their influence has spread like a cancer to every corner of economic and social life. To facilitate the continued looting of the treasury by the war-profiteers, governments cut non-military spending. To block resistance to the cuts, they destroy unions and progressive social organizations.

It’s not only that Musk and Trump are rotten to the core or that they pursue bad policies. They represent the historical outcome of capitalism as it has developed in the U.S. towards increasing militarism, austerity, and repression. Like any other capitalist government that turns toward fascism, the state relies increasingly on open white supremacy, gender oppression, anti-immigrant persecution, more police and prisons, and the destruction of all civil rights in order to keep profits flowing.

More than ever, it’s guns or butter, warfare or healthcare. That means that supporting the foreign policies of either capitalist party as they back war or sanctions against Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, etc., is tantamount to supporting cuts, repression, and poverty at home.

You cannot stand against the cuts to education and health care, national parks, the VA, postal service, and disaster relief while echoing the call for war in Ukraine and against Russia. The people of Russia can conduct their struggle where they are. Our struggle is here. We can start by demanding U.S./NATO out of Eastern Europe.

Source: Workers Voice

https://www.struggle-la-lucha.org/2025/ ... rn-europe/
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Mon Mar 24, 2025 12:27 pm

Elephants in the room
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/24/2025

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“He’s not a bad guy,” said Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy and currently the United States’ chief negotiator with Russia, referring to Vladimir Putin, whom he called a “great leader” seeking an end to the war. Witkoff made these remarks in a much-discussed interview with one of the most followed influencers on the American Trumpist right, Tucker Carlson, whose views on Russia and Ukraine, in line with those of JD Vance, Donald Trump Jr., and Elon Musk and the result of his profound ignorance of both countries, are increasingly controversial. Witkoff's words are important both for the medium—one of the most widely circulated podcasts —and for the message and timing of their delivery, as the United States attempts to move from a partial ceasefire, which is only taking place in Donald Trump's mind, to a truce that will lead to negotiations in which the US president can take credit for halting the most intense war to hit Europe since World War II. "I liked him; I think he was being honest with me," Witkoff explained, revealing his impressions of the more than three-hour meeting he held with the Russian president. "It's a complicated situation, that war, and all the ingredients that led to it," he added.

In this friendly atmosphere, where prejudices are not directed against Russia, as is the case in the liberal press, but against Ukraine, Witkoff allows himself to humanize the Russian leader. Putin “told me a story,” he explains, “about how when the president was shot, he went to his local church, met with his priest, and prayed for the president.” He did this, according to Witkoff, “not because he could become the president of the United States, but because he was friends with him and was praying for his friend.” Whether real or not, the fact that the Russian side conveyed this message to Donald Trump's envoy is an example of the diplomacy of gestures and personal relationships that Moscow has perfectly understood to be one of the keys to maintaining the favor of the US president. As Witkoff noted, the United States has also appreciated Vladimir Putin's thoughtfulness in commissioning a renowned Russian artist to paint a portrait of Donald Trump as a gift. The Kremlin is aware that its chances of reaching an agreement that would grant Russia a significant portion of the reasons it went to war in 2022 depend on appealing to the egos of the US president and his team.

“The key to understanding Putin's logic is to accept that he's not fighting for territory. He sees the full-scale invasion, which has already resulted in the occupation of a fifth of Ukrainian territory, as punishment for Ukraine's failure to comply with the 2015-2016 Minsk agreements, which stipulated that the two separatist regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, would remain under formal Ukrainian control. Russia's annexation of these two regions, along with Kherson and Zaporozhye, was punishment for Ukraine's abandonment of the Istanbul agreements,” wrote Russian opposition journalist Leonid Ragozin a few days ago on Al Jazeera . He believes that Russia's objective was never territorial (at least beyond Crimea and Donbass) but was always focused on security. Aware that NATO is not seen by Trumpists as a soft power tool to spread Western values ​​but as a military alliance that is broad enough and doesn't need to expand further, Russia sees in the current Washington administration an opportunity it cannot afford to miss. The public humiliation of Zelensky in the White House and the Trump team's warmest words for Vladimir Putin, perceived as an ally in traditional values ​​as well as a strong leader, is yet another opportunity the Kremlin is trying to exploit to its advantage. Added to all this are the internal inconsistencies and lack of preparation of a significant portion of Trump's team.

“First of all, I think the key to the conflict is these so-called four regions, Donbass, Crimea… you know, the names,” Steve Witkoff attempted to argue during his appearance on Tucker Carlson’s podcast . He was clearly unsure of the names, but was helped by his interviewer. “Luhansk,” Carlson chimed in, perhaps unaware that Luhansk is part of Donbass, and also unable to pronounce the names Kherson and Zaporozhye. “There are two others,” Witkoff continued, “that are Russian-speaking. There have been referendums in which the vast majority of the population has indicated they want to be under Russian control. I think that’s the key issue in the conflict.” “From this, it’s clear that the only difference between Steve Witkoff’s and Vladimir Putin’s views on the war in Ukraine is that Putin actually knows the names of the five Ukrainian regions he wants to keep,” The Wall Street Journal journalist Yaroslav Trofimov wrote about that fragment of the speech. Trump's envoy's ignorance is evident, but it concerns not only the geography of Ukraine's southern regions, but also the nature of the conflict itself.

During the 2022 Istanbul negotiations, Russia offered Ukraine security guarantees that would apply to the entire territory except for Crimea and a portion of Donbass, the borders of which had yet to be defined in a meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin. The fact that Russian security guarantees extended to Zaporozhye in Kherson, a region where Russia also controlled the capital at the time, indicated Moscow's desire to return control over all of these areas to Ukraine, virtually everything captured since February 24. Even then, it was more important for Russia to achieve Ukraine's neutrality than an expansion of its territory, something that is even more evident today, both given Russia's (limited) offensive capabilities and Ukraine's increased ability to attack Russia at long range. Faced with the imperial aspirations of the nationalist sectors to the right of the Kremlin, the Russian president has been clear and has identified Donbass as Russia's territorial objective. The Russian Federation's rhetoric, consistent with its moves on the front lines, thus focuses on its progressive advances in Donbass and the demand to keep NATO out of Ukraine, whether through membership or military presence by the Alliance or its member countries.

Witkoff's words and Trofimov's comments are an example of a refusal to understand the nature of war, which is worrying in the case of a journalist, who must reflect reality, but even more so in the case of a negotiator, who demonstrates complete ignorance of the type of conflict he is trying to resolve. Convinced that the territorial issue is the most complicated, Donald Trump's envoy asserts that "when that is handled, and we are having very positive conversations," Witkoff begins, before being interrupted by Carlson, who insists that Russia already considers those territories its own under constitutional terms. The territorial issue is, for Witkoff, the "elephant in the room" that "no one wants to talk about." “In Ukraine, there are constitutional issues regarding what they can give up in terms of ceding territory. The Russians de facto control those territories. The question is whether the world will recognize that they are Russian territories. Will it end? Can Zelensky survive politically if he recognizes this, which is the central issue of the conflict?” he states, summarizing the question, which apparently boils down to what Ukraine will legally accept. Witkoff's comments, in addition to being poorly informed, contradict everything currently being proposed as a realistic scenario for resolving the conflict. A few days ago, Volodymyr Zelensky insisted that the Ukrainian red line is the recognition of any territorial loss, which Ukraine will always consider temporary. So far, no scenario has been on the table in which the de facto border that currently constitutes the front could be officially recognized. Only one media outlet, Semafor , has indicated this past week that Trump would be considering the possibility of officially recognizing Crimea's annexation to Russia. The precedent this would set makes it virtually impossible for Moscow to achieve its goal of effectively controlling the territory sufficient to recognize those four regions plus Crimea as officially Russian.

In contrast to Witkoff's attitude toward the territorial issue, which appears more favorable to Russia than is realistic, his approach to security is very different. Trump's envoy's words on the matter are clear: it is "generally accepted" that Ukraine cannot be part of NATO if there is to be a peace agreement to end the war. This position is consistent with what Pete Hegseth stated in his speech to European NATO allies, which triggered the beginning of the nervous breakdown that European countries continue to suffer. "Zelensky and his right-hand man Yermak, I believe, have largely accepted that Ukraine will not be a member of NATO," Witkoff stated, despite the fact that this remains the Ukrainian government's main objective today. Furthermore, Zelensky has rejected outright the possibility of introducing a United Nations peacekeeping mission—a Ukrainian objective since April 2014—still aspiring to secure an armed contingent made up of NATO member countries, an intermediate step between the current limbo and accession as soon as possible. “There has been a lot of talk about whether they will be able to enjoy the so-called Article 5 protection,” Witkoff stated. “Will Ukraine somehow be able to obtain it from the United States or European countries without being a NATO member?” he added, introducing the option proposed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. “I think that is open to debate,” Witkoff concluded, opening the door to something that Russia would undoubtedly consider a covert accession to the alliance and which, sooner rather than later, would imply the military presence of Alliance countries in the country.

With his speech, Witkoff demonstrates a US stance closer to Russia on the territorial issue, but not on the security aspect. Above all, the words of Trump's envoy demonstrate the ignorance of reality that prevails within the White House foreign policy team, which has not even managed to grasp that the territorial aspect will be easier to agree on between the parties—fundamentally because it will be the front line that will mark, with some minor adjustments and exchanges, the de facto borders between the two countries—than security guarantees. This refusal to see an obvious reality, which was evident, for example, in the negotiation of the minerals agreement, in which Ukraine insisted on introducing US security guarantees for Ukraine, casts doubt on the White House's ability to conduct a competent negotiation process with the potential to achieve its goal of stopping the war in "weeks, not months." The new round of negotiations began yesterday with contacts with Ukraine and will continue today with meetings with Russia and, depending on the circumstances, again with representatives of Kyiv.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/24/elefa ... abitacion/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's Telegram account:

Colonelcassad
The Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk region as of March 23, 2025.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to defeat the formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region.

During offensive actions, units of the North group of forces defeated the formations of the mechanized, airborne assault brigades, the marine brigade and three territorial defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Gogolevka, Gornal, Guevo and Oleshnya. Four enemy counterattacks repelled.

Strikes by operational-tactical, army aviation and artillery fire hit enemy manpower and equipment in the areas of the settlements of Gogolevka, Gornal, Guevo and Oleshnya, as well as Alekseyevka, Basovka, Belovody, Varachino, Velikaya Rybitsa, Veselovka, Vladimirovka, Vodolaghi, Grunovka, Zhuravka, Zapselye, Loknya, Miropolye, Mogritsa, Novaya Sich, Novonikolayevka, Proletarske, Sadki, Yunakovka and Yablonovka in Sumy Oblast.

— Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 190 servicemen, destroyed three combat armored vehicles, 16 cars, five artillery pieces, six mortars, an MLRS launcher, and two ammunition depots. In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost: - more than 69,510 servicemen, - 400 tanks, - 323 infantry fighting vehicles, - 289 armored personnel carriers, - 2,216 armored combat vehicles, - 2,526 vehicles, - 580 artillery pieces, - 53 multiple launch rocket system launchers, including 13 HIMARS and seven MLRS made in the USA, - 26 anti-aircraft missile system launchers, a self-propelled anti-aircraft gun, ten transport and loading vehicles, - 120 electronic warfare stations, - 18 counter-battery radars, ten air defense radars, - 56 units of engineering and other equipment, including 23 engineering obstacle clearance vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing unit, five bridge layers, an engineering reconnaissance vehicle, as well as 15 armored repair and recovery vehicles and a command and staff vehicle.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Solving the Drone Dilemma: Can Russia Succeed?
Simplicius
Mar 22, 2025

The face of the Ukrainian conflict continues to change, and many analysts and commentators alike are stuck interpreting the battlefield with an outdated model. Others stick to deficient generalities, based on vague cliches about drones, ignoring the subtle nuances at play on the frontline. Let us take a look and examine where the real war stands today, with a focus on answering the ultimate question on everyone’s mind: can Russia still “decisively” win this war which, in the eyes of many, is trending toward an entropic drone stalemate in perpetuity?

i.
To answer that question, we must examine the current on-the-ground realities, rather than rehashing out-of-date tactics from last year or the year before. One example of popularly repeated-but-dated information, is that artillery still accounts for ~90% of casualties, or thereabouts. While neither is it true that drones inflict 90% of casualties as some pro-Ukrainians swear, it is likewise no longer true that artillery dominates to such an extent as it did even a year ago, let alone further back. It’s difficult to determine the exact percentage, but at this point it would not be unreasonable to suggest that somewhere between 40-60% of deaths are drone related.

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This is inferred by a variety of methods:

Direct quotes from frontline units. For a long time only the Ukrainian side contended that drones were their primary means of fire damage, but this was understood because they lacked in other weapons systems compared to Russia. However, now even many Russian units are reporting that drones are outweighing other systems on their section of the front.

Direct video evidence. We see less and less footage even from the Russian side of artillery destruction, and disproportionately more drone strikes. This is particularly the case with the advent of fiber optic or ‘optical fiber’ drones, which increase the success rate of hits exponentially.

The sheer scale of drone production on both sides has grown far beyond any other weapon systems. For example, while Russian artillery and glide-bomb production may increase by 20-30% per year, drone production is seeing parabolic increases of hundreds or even thousands of percentage points year-on-year.

An example, various sources claim Ukraine produced 20,000 FPVs per month in early 2024, and now produces over 200,000 per month in 2025, an increase of ~1000%.

Ukrainian producers were delivering about 20,000 of the dish-plate-sized quadcopters a month at the start of 2024, but increased investment and better-organized supply chains and manufacturing processes spiked output to 200,000 aircraft a month in January 2025, Havryliuk said.

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Today a photo emerged claiming to show the web of fiber optics cables stringing over the battlefield—reportedly after a morning frost, which made the thin wires more visible:

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Granted, the sheer scale of drone production, usage, and success may be vastly overstated. For instance, even if both sides produce 100-300k drones a month as claimed, they also both admit that the vast majority of drone strikes are unsuccessful, with the systems either brought down by EW or simply missing the target.

Let’s say 300k+ drones are produced per month, as now claimed, by the Russian side, with only 10-30% of them succeeding in some way, even if it’s a glancing blow which does not disable the target. That’s about 30-90k hits per month. Artillery is fired at a rate of 10-20k shells a day, or 300-600k shots per month, by the Russian side. If we assume a similar 10-30% do some damage to a target, we can educe that anywhere between ~30k to ~150k artillery hits are being registered per month, which does not include various other systems like aerial bombs, etc.

Judging by those numbers, it’s easy to see that drones could plausibly account for at least 20-30% of scored hits, if not much more, given their higher accuracy. It may be better to break it down by type of target: tube and rocket artillery and aerial bombs likely account for the vast majority of damage to infrastructural targets like weapons depots, ammo dumps, fortifications, workshops, stationary equipment, etc., while drones may account for a proportionally high amount of infantry kills—like I said, not necessarily the majority, but perhaps 35-65%. A huge portion of videos we now see feature not only FPV kills of infantry, but large hexacopter and agricultural ‘agro-drones’ dropping bombs on dugouts, etc. Drones have also weakened opposing artillery due to their increasing range, which now regularly allows them to roam 15-20km behind enemy lines—and even much farther in the extreme examples—which is precisely where most artillery systems work. This forces artillery systems to retreat out of range and be ineffective, with only the minority portion of systems with superior range able to consistently function along some fronts.

And there are new kinds of drones appearing all the time—to show one example on the Russian side, the Molniya-2, a kind of hybrid cross-OWA-FPV:
(Video at link.)

⚡️ Crews of the Molniya-2 strike drones of the Center group destroyed a fortified firing point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.

Not only has production of fiber optic drones skyrocketed on both sides, but “machine vision” AI-powered drones have been increasingly as well. Here’s one recent example of a Ukrainian one, which appears to have missed, but only by an inch: (Video at link.)

Footage has emerged of the use of the new Ukrainian attack drone UAS SETH, which uses AI machine targeting. In appearance, the drone resembles a smaller copy of the Geranium, but has an optical guidance system with automatic acquisition and target acquisition and is designed to destroy objects in the frontline zone. Looks like it needs work, because it missed.

And another more effective one, called the Shrike 10CV: (Video at link.)

Ukrainian specialists, on the other hand, increasingly find all kinds of new Russian drones with this AI ‘machine vision’ on the front:

Recently CEO of Anduril Palmer Luckey bragged about how his company’s Altius-700M drone, which according to him features fully autonomous hunter-killer mode, has already been widely used in Ukraine.

These days the most successful drones are modular, and can be adapted to a variety of EW conditions and general tasks. Russian forces have been rolling out a highly modular copy, which can change cameras depending on needs, and most importantly, the antenna itself, allowing it to operate on different frequency bands to out-maneuver whatever EW frequencies the Ukrainians are favoring in that particular section of front: (Video at link.)

Note they mention the drone also has AI machine vision in the final section of flight, whereby it can autonomously hold the target in case it is jammed. In fact, the developer mentions they are working on enhancing the AI capabilities even further, integrating a topographical autonomy that will allow the drone to hunt its own targets in an unknown environment, presumably after understanding the surroundings via a kind of terrain mapping (TERCOM) integration.

UGV, or ground bots, have also been increasing in vast numbers on both sides, mostly DIY or cheaply made variants. (Video at link.)

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Ukraine has virtually stopped using naval drones in a ‘kamikaze’ role, instead deploying them as mothership carriers for FPVs which attack Russian coastal targets around Crimea and the Kinburn Peninsula. In a newly released video, one can even see how Russian Pantsir-S1 missile systems are unable to hit the tiny, maneuverable drones: (Video at link.)

It should be noted it is a good sign they fired at it, which means the Pantsir radar is at least picking the small cross-section craft up, but the missiles simply were never designed to hit such tiny, jittery targets. A new class of Pantsir-SMD mini-missiles made specifically for small drones is still being developed and rolled out.

One of the last refuges against drones now being extensively utilized by both sides happens to be a rather primitive solution: the creation of anti-drone net corridors to secure the entire length of important supply routes. Russians have now systematized the installation of these on various fronts, with engineering troops specially outfitted for the task, as can be seen below:

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And Ukraine is doing the same—here’s a spliced video of two new Ukrainian supply routes: (Video at link.)

It brings up the question of why the world’s most powerful and advanced countries cannot come up with a solution that effectively neutralizes these drones. EW (Electronic Warfare) was meant to be the silver bullet, with Russia as world leader in this intricate art—but it turns out, fiber optic and autonomous AI drones completely negate the jamming side of EW.

There is DEW (Directed Energy Weapons) like microwave emitters which can easily fry the electronic motherboards on a whole swarm of small drones at a time. The problem is, these systems are hugely expensive because they require massive amounts of energy directed in a tiny cone, which would never be able to stop swarms coming in from every side—and above—as is now common practice on the front.

One of Ukraine’s top radio-electronics experts Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov recently ridiculed the very idea after someone posted the following video:

(Paywall with free option.)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sol ... can-russia

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How Zelenski Is Trying To Sabotage Trump's Negotiations With Russia

Ukraine's (former) President Zelenski is trying to impede further talks between the U.S. and Russia. For this purpose he is avoiding to implement a temporary ceasefire an energy related targets as agreed on between President Trump and President Putin.

Zelenski does not like that deal. He continues to talk of a future ceasefire of all attacks on general infrastructure that may or may not happen in future while his army continues to attack Russian energy installations.

The Russian readout of the 150 minute phone call between the presidents includes this reference to an 'energy ceasefire':

]During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded favourably to the proposal and immediately gave the relevant order to the Russian troops.

The U.S. readout is less clear on the issue. It says:

This conflict should never have started and should have been ended long ago with sincere and good faith peace efforts. The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

General infrastructure is a much wider field than energy infrastructure as it involves roads, bridges, public buildings etc. The much shorter U.S. readout is also not at all clear when the energy ceasefire should start even as Russia said that it already had started.

Trump then had a call with President Zelenski. The White House readout from that call says:

The two leaders also agreed on a partial ceasefire against energy. Technical teams will meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days to discuss broadening the ceasefire to the Black Sea on the way to a full ceasefire.

This is way more compatible with the Russian view. The temporary ceasefire is about energy infrastructure. It is already ongoing. Further talks are only about expanding it.

This also consistent with the history of previous negotiations and agreements about a moratorium of attacks against energy infrastructure as documented here.

Steven Witkoff, Trump's negotiator in talks with Putin, also confirmed that the temporary ceasefire is about 'energy infrastructure' during an interview with Tucker Carlson (@55min).

Zelenski did not seem to agree with that view when he talked about his phone call with Trump (machine translation):

\President Trump shared details of his conversation with Putin and the key issues discussed. One of the first steps towards a complete end to the war may be to stop attacks on energy and other civilian infrastructure. I supported this step, and Ukraine confirmed that we are ready to implement it.

Two days later the Ukrainian army destroyed the gas metering station of the Druzba pipeline in the Kursk region near the Ukrainian border. (It of course accused the Russians who have no interest in destructing valuable infrastructure within their country).

The Russian side commented on it (machine translation):

The issue of the Suja GIS attack raised the issue of a moratorium on strikes on the energy sector, which Putin and Zelensky agreed to.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov said today that Putin's order on a moratorium on strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector continues to operate. At the same time, according to him, the relevant agreements between Trump and Putin concerned only energy projects, and not the entire infrastructure.

"Despite the actions of Kiev (the Russian Federation accuses Ukraine of strikes on the Russian energy infrastructure - Ed.), the order of the supreme commander-in-chief is valid, and the Russian army currently refrains from attacking the energy infrastructure of Ukraine in accordance with the agreement that was reached between the United States and Russia," the Kremlin spokesman said.

On the eve of Zelensky said that a partial truce, which is currently being discussed, includes a moratorium not only on attacks on energy, but also on other civilian infrastructure. At the same time, as we can see, Moscow says that Putin's agreements with Trump concern only the cessation of strikes on the energy sector.


During an interview of John Mearsheimer Daniel Davis played the relevant clip of Zelenski's daily address to the Ukrainian public in which he talks about a ceasefire on general 'civil' infrastructure, how his people are now putting together lists of such installations, and how this will all have to be discussed in future rounds.

There is no acknowledgement of an existing ceasefire on energy infrastructure.

Russia is currently still sticking to the agreed about temporary ceasefire with regards to energy infrastructure. Zelenski has not acknowledged that such a ceasefire is in place. He is instead talking about a ceasefire on general infrastructure which is a whole different game to play.

If the Ukraine insists on continuing its attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure Putin will have to hit back (machine translation):

The Russian Foreign Ministry threatens Ukraine with a "symmetrical response", accusing the Ukrainian Armed Forces of strikes on Russian energy projects.
This is reported by the press service of the department.

"It is obvious that with such antics, Kiev once again demonstrates its complete inability to negotiate, as well as its lack of desire to achieve peace. We warn that if the Kiev regime continues its destructive line, the Russian side reserves the right to respond, including a symmetrical one, " the Russian Foreign Ministry said.


If the Trump administration is serious about seeking peace in Ukraine it will have to tell Zelenski that he will have to accept the ceasefire parameters Trump has agreed upon with Putin. (It will also have to use more precise language in its read-outs.)

There is a temporary ceasefire with regards to energy infrastructure in place. Zelenski does his best to ignore and sabotage that deal. If Trump lets him get away with this the trust that has been build up during recent U.S.-Russian talks will be gone. This would seriously impede further negotiations.

If Trump wants peace in Ukraine he has to get serious about this.

Posted by b on March 22, 2025 at 17:09 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/03/h ... .html#more

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Complete inability to negotiate
March 22, 17:04

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The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is on the line:

1. The Russian Federation reserves the right to a symmetrical response in connection with Ukraine's ongoing strikes on energy facilities,
2. Kiev, by striking at Russian energy facilities, demonstrates its complete inability to negotiate and lack of desire for peace.

However, thanks to the suspension of strikes on the energy sector, we finally saw massive raids on Kirovograd, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporozhye.

P.S. It is clear that the enemy will disrupt any agreements. It could not be otherwise.
Those who saw Minsk-2 are not surprised.

And about Zaporozhye NPP.

No one but Russia will control the Zaporizhzhya NPP, its property belongs to the Russian Federation (c) Director of Zaporizhzhya NPP
The maximum that Ukraine can expect after the war is the supply of surplus electricity from Zaporizhzhya NPP to Ukraine. No one will transfer Zaporizhzhya NPP to Ukraine or the US. Meanwhile, the US reports that negotiations are already underway on the division of Ukrainian territories.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9740017.html

Google Translator

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Stepan Bandera’s Sinister MI6 Alliance Exposed
Posted by Internationalist 360° on March 23, 2025
Kit Klarenberg

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A modern celebration of Stepan Bandera, Ukraine

March 17th marked the 80th anniversary of the creation of the Ukrainian National Committee. With the Red Army rapidly advancing on Berlin, Nazi officials released Ukrainian ultranationalist military units from their command, and recognised the Committee – and a newly-formed National Army under its control – as the legitimate government of Ukraine. It was hoped the UNC would continue Hitler’s crusade against the Soviet Union following Berlin’s rapidly impending defeat in World War II, which occurred two months later.

The UNC’s establishment was eagerly supported by notorious Ukrainian ultranationalist Stepan Bandera, founder of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN-B) and Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), two ultranationalist factions heavily complicit in the Holocaust. As the mainstream media has acknowledged, his legacy endures in modern Ukraine, in the form of Neo-Nazi military units such as Azov Regiment, and he remains a much-celebrated figure in certain quarters of the country – much to the chagrin of Kiev’s Eastern European neighbours.

Bandera believed Nazi Germany’s UNC recognition would encourage American and British backing for OUN-B’s anti-Communist crusade, and Ukrainian independence. The Ukrainian Supreme Liberation Council (UHVR), which the OUN-B was instrumental in founding in 1944, was already in covert contact with London and Washington. As it was, no such formal support ever came to pass. Yet, little-known declassified CIA records expose the malign contours of a long-running conspiracy between Bandera and MI6 to destabilize the Soviet Union during the Cold War’s initial years.

This dark handshake only expired because MI6’s fascist asset was resistant to joining forces with other Ukrainian anti-Communist forces, therefore jeopardising plans by Washington and London for all-out war with Moscow in Donbass. That plot, intended to ultimately collapse the entire USSR, has eerie, direct echoes of the current Ukraine proxy war. So too Britain’s willingness, then and now, to go far further than the US in building alliances with the most reactionary, dangerous Ukrainian ultranationalist elements, in service of balkanising Russia.

‘Bandit Type’

MI6’s post-war relationship with Bandera began while he was exiled in post-war Munich, West Germany in 1948, via Gerhard von Mende. An ethnic German hailing from Riga, Latvia, von Mende has been described as an “enthusiastic Nazi” who headed Berlin’s Reich Ministry for the Occupied Eastern Territory, or Ostministerium. Among other connivances, von Mende was charged with recruiting fifth columnists from the USSR’s Central Asian republics, to undermine and attack Communist authorities. He has been credited with influencing subsequent British and American support for Islamic extremism.

Per a declassified CIA biography, after Nazi Germany’s defeat, von Mende was “interned as a ‘guest’” at the Agency’s Camp King, where Nazi officials and soldiers were interrogated and tortured. In some cases, inmates were unwittingly dosed with LSD under PROJECT BLUEBIRD, a forerunner of the CIA’s notorious MKULTRA mind control program. Subsequently, von Mende became an asset for West Germany’s Nazi-riddled BND, the CIA, and MI6, continuing to recruit anti-Communist assets in the USSR via a front company.

Through this position, von Mende was kept abreast of UPA activities and capabilities, and maintained an intimate personal relationship with Bandera. The Ukrainian fascist ideologue’s thuggish West German network was by then hard at work killing hundreds of local citizens suspected by the CIA and MI6 of harboring Communist sympathies. While the OUN-B chief’s “ask” of British intelligence was initially judged too high, that perspective rapidly changed. By 1949, MI6 was helping Bandera airdrop his chaos agents into Ukraine.

A year later, Britain’s foreign spy agency began formally training these operatives to gather intelligence and carry out sabotage and assassinations on Soviet soil. This sinister compact was established despite stern CIA and State Department opposition. The Agency considered UHVR, which by this point had cut ties with Bandera’s murderous ultranationalist mob, a far more palatable alternative. The group was now led by Ukrainian-Greek Catholic priest Ivan Hrinioch, a “longtime CIA asset”, and former high ranking OUN-B operative Mykola Lebed.

During World War II, Lebed oversaw the UPA’s massacre of tens of thousands of Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia. However, he subsequently disavowed this genocidal carnage, and led UHVR’s push to unite Ukrainian emigres, who had fractured due to bloody, internecine squabbles towards the conflict’s end. Under the auspices of Operation AERODYNAMIC, for decades the CIA exploited UHVR to foment “nationalist flare-ups” throughout the Soviet Union, “particularly” in Ukraine, and “encourage divisive manifestations among” the population, to “exert pressure on the Soviet regime.”

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Internal CIA description of Operation AERODYNAMIC

By this time, Bandera had fallen out of favour with many Ukrainian nationalists more generally, even renounced by what remained of OUN-B’s Kiev-based leadership. This, his genocidal past, and overt anti-US actions and statements due to Washington’s refusal to publicly advocate for Ukrainian independence, all deterred the CIA from employing him. MI6 was unperturbed however, and pushed ahead with its Bandera operations. This created a ludicrous situation, with London and Washington supporting bitterly antagonistic Ukrainian nationalist factions, which frequently undermined and attacked each other.

As a British intelligence memo on “the crisis over Bandera” noted, by 1950 Ukrainian nationalist leaders had “become aware of the fact that the British and Americans were backing rival groups,” putting the agencies’ joint anti-Soviet projects at risk. It was decided to dispatch a cosigned message to UPA headquarters via Ukrainian CIA and MI6 agents parachuted into Lviv, calling for an end to “present disagreements” between opposing nationalist factions, which London and Washington professed to “deplore” and hoped “may be resolved.”

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It signed off with the now-infamous, Bandera-coined nationalist slogan, “Glory to the Ukraine” (“Slava Ukraini”). The memo’s MI6 author moreover recalled an in-person meeting he had with Bandera in London. The spy described him thus:

“Convincing and sincere…a professional underground worker with a terrorist background and ruthless notions about the rules of the game, acquired by hard experience, along with a thorough knowledge of the Ukrainian people…a bandit type if you like, with a burning patriotism which provides an ethical background and a justification for his banditry.”

The MI6 operative cheerfully added that genocidal mass murderer Bandera was “no better and no worse than others of his kind I have had dealings with in the past,” and “genuinely grateful for the help given to him” by British intelligence, “but at the same time is certainly trying to get all he can out of it.” The CIA begged to differ however, commissioning a study of London and Washington’s conflicting positions on the “Ukrainian underground” and Bandera, and how to resolve this divergence.

‘Political Overtones’

An ensuing appraisal repeatedly declared Bandera and OUN-B to be “completely unacceptable” to the CIA, “both from the political and the operational standpoints.” It proposed the Agency and MI6 take joint ownership of the UHVR and its anti-Soviet wrecking project in Ukraine, and “exchange political, operational and intelligence data resulting from these operations.” Meanwhile, the CIA would “take independent action to neutralize” OUN-B’s “present leadership”, including Bandera himself. It’s unknown if this was pitched to MI6, although London’s steadfast opposition was inevitable.

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The “British position”, as described in the study, was Bandera’s “importance” had been serially “underestimated by the Americans, as a rallying symbol in the Ukraine, as leader of a large emigre group [and] as a leader favored by the homeland headquarters.” This didn’t tally with the reality on-the-ground as detected by the CIA, but MI6 had a vested interest in maintaining the fascist demagogue as an agent. An April 1951 Agency memo summarizing recent “talks” with British intelligence “on operations against the USSR” noted:

“[MI6 is] seeking progressively to assume control of Bandera’s lines…[MI6 argues] Bandera’s name still carried considerable weight in the Ukraine…[and OUN-B is] the strongest Ukrainian organization abroad, is deemed competent to train party cadres, [and] build a morally and politically healthy organization.”

By contrast, the CIA observed Soviet authorities “had been successful to a remarkable degree in transforming the mentality of the younger generation” of Ukrainians, resulting in them vehemently rejecting Bandera and his brand of rabid nationalism. While the Agency therefore favoured “political neutralization of Bandera as an individual”, MI6 balked, as this “would lead to a drying up of recruits” and “disrupt British operations.” However, the declassified papertrail shows London eventually tired of their fascist asset.

In February 1954, a senior MI6 official who led liaison with OUN-B for two decades made a “final attempt to bring Bandera to reason” in London, due to the genocidaire’s refusal to reconcile and unite with opposing Ukrainian nationalist elements. The high-ranking British spook offered him “one last chance” to make amends with émigré leaders. Bandera “refused this suggestion with arrogant finality,” thus making “the break” between Bandera and MI6 “complete.”

All British intelligence-run Ukrainian agents who remained loyal to Bandera were duly jettisoned. MI6 informed other nationalist leaders the agency “would not resume” its relationship with him “under any circumstances.” Bandera remained exiled in Munich, and continued to run belligerent cloak-and-dagger operations against the Soviet Union, while ratcheting up his anti-Western rhetoric. The CIA and MI6 viewed these activities as a significant problem, with no obvious solution.

As CIA records of a January 1955 “joint US-UK conference” put it, despite the “unanimous desire” of British and American intelligence to “‘quiet’ Bandera,” it was equally vital the KGB was “not allowed to kidnap or kill him.” This could make Bandera “a martyr” among Ukrainian ultranationalists, a prospect to be avoided if at all possible. Hence, London and Washington kept him alive and well, while permitting West Germany’s BND to run him as an agent. Their old friend Gerhard von Mende was his handler.

West German authorities wished to punish Bandera and his in-country network for crimes including kidnapping, but von Mende consistently intervened to insulate his compatriot from prosecution. A July 1959 CIA report noted the BND’s use of Bandera was such a “closely held” secret within the agency, it wasn’t even formally cleared with the West German government, “due to political overtones.” Despite this omertà, the BND moved to secure Bandera a US visa.

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Excerpt from CIA document

It was hoped he would connect with Ukrainian emigres Stateside, while ingratiating himself with the CIA and State Department. Per an October 5th 1959 Agency memo, the BND believed “it should be a simple matter” for the CIA “to influence the issuing of a visa” for Bandera, as “many less desirable and less ‘exploitable’ individuals” had already visited the country via Agency assistance. A formal request was resultantly submitted to Washington. Just 10 days later though, the KGB assassinated Bandera in Munich.

Despite their mutual wish Bandera not be “martyred” by Soviet intelligence, it is likely the CIA and MI6 breathed a collective sigh of relief upon news of his death. The OUN-B and UPA founder’s destabilising, disruptive influence within the Ukrainian anti-Communist underground was a significant impediment to Anglo-American spying agencies implementing a far grander plan than any they had hitherto tried. Namely, fomenting all-out war against the Soviet Union, using Ukrainians as footsoldiers.

This is the first instalment of a two-part investigation. Stay tuned.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/03/ ... e-exposed/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Tue Mar 25, 2025 12:34 pm

"That's where I live"
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/25/2025

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“It’s been almost six years since Volodymyr Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine, but he still flinches at all the polished brass and chandeliers cluttering his office. The place looks rather garish, like a room straight out of Mar-a-Lago, and Zelensky is constantly apologetic about it as he shows it around to me one March afternoon. He says he’d rather throw out the furniture, tear down the pilasters, and use white paint to hide the gold leaf on the ceiling,” writes journalist Simon Shuster in his opening of this week’s Time magazine cover story . “But, you know, we haven’t had a lot of time for renovations, especially these last few years,” he goes on to quote the Ukrainian president. Zelensky didn’t have time to renovate his offices in the nearly three years between his election and the Russian invasion. Nor did he have the capacity to resolve, as he had promised, the conflict in Donbass, one of the key issues of his campaign, after which he gave no option to his rival, Petro Poroshenko, whose platform was to continue the low-intensity war against Donetsk and Lugansk until he obtained concessions from Russia or until the war reached another level, provoking external intervention.

In contrast to the candidate's platform, President Zelensky's administration quickly became similar to that of his predecessor, something that some of his main allies now justify by blaming others. "He is not an irrational man. He was elected as a peacemaker," Boris Johnson recently stated, one of the people who signaled the end of diplomacy in the spring of 2022. He did not do so as an order—his "we will fight" has been manipulated to present it as a dictate contrary to the wishes of his interlocutor—but as a sign that Ukraine would have the necessary material, weapons, ammunition, intelligence, and financing to do what it already wanted to do: continue the war until it achieved a position of strength in which it could limit concessions to Moscow as much as possible.

"In 2019, he tried to reach an agreement with Putin," he notes, trying to convey his doubts about diplomacy with his body language, but finally adds that "as I recall, his main problem is that... you know, the Ukrainian nationalists couldn't accept compromise." The compromise Zelensky had referred to during the campaign, which was considered a capitulation by the far right in the country and by the American diaspora as a collective, was the Minsk agreements, which until February 2022, all parties involved, including the Ukrainian government, publicly defined as the only way to resolve the conflict. However, already in December 2019, just a few months after his inauguration, Zelensky notified Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel that the political points of that roadmap would not be implemented, which was tantamount to rejecting the only peace agreement signed so far. "You can understand why not," Boris Johnson declares, referring to what he calls a compromise, which was none other than compliance with the agreement negotiated for Ukraine by Angela Merkel. The war against Russia, and even then the conflict against Donetsk, Luhansk, and their populations, was, for the nationalist far right and the state, too important in creating the founding myth of Maidan Ukraine to allow a compromise that would involve such a harsh concession as guaranteeing linguistic and cultural rights to Donbass, something neither the armed groups nor any of the governments that have existed in the last eleven years were willing to make. As the inaction of European countries and the United States, and the words of people like Boris Johnson, show, this opinion also extends to Kiev's allies, who never did anything to force Ukraine to implement the agreement it had signed and in the name of which it continued to demand concessions from Russia without ever offering tangible promises of compliance itself.

War is today the raison d'être of the Ukrainian state, something Zelensky inherited in 2019 from his predecessor Petro Poroshenko and which he was unwilling or unable to change despite the large majority in favor of peace that had elected him president, largely for that reason. In December of that year, when Zelensky secured the desired Normandy Format meeting, which he used to secure Russia's commitment to the new gas transit agreement, nothing remained of that peacenick Boris Johnson refers to. Five years after his election and three since the Russian invasion, Zelensky prides himself on being a war president. And he does so not only with his attire, which earned him his first rebuke from Donald Trump upon his arrival at the White House to sign the mineral extraction agreement that ultimately failed to materialize, but also with his office props .

“Deep in his office, behind Ukraine’s version of the Resolute Desk , is a space that Zelensky feels like home: a small room with a single bed and a collection of paintings he handpicked. They are not museum pieces. At the local bazaar, similar ones might fetch a few hundred dollars at most. But they are important to the president because of what they represent,” Shuster writes. “The one hanging above his bed shows a Russian warship sinking in the Black Sea. Another shows Ukrainian troops recently fighting on Russian soil. The third, Zelensky’s favorite, shows the Kremlin engulfed in flames. “Each one is about victory,” he says as we crowd into the space to look at the photos. “That’s where I live.” This is the space in which the Ukrainian president lives, a world in which past Ukrainian victories—both the sinking of the Moskva and the Kursk adventure, which turned out not to be— are exaggerated to the point of nausea, as is the desire for future ones.

The circumstances are not favorable to these events, and the pressure from the ally, who holds the diplomatic cards that determine what can and cannot be negotiated, has led Zelensky to a cognitive dissonance in which his words contradict his wishes. The pictures of the burning Kremlin, for example, clash with Bankova's current rhetoric demanding a ceasefire and a narrative of peace as soon as possible, which sounds strange compared to her actions and words of just a few weeks ago. This has been contributed to by her catastrophic visit to the White House and the evident need to redirect relations with Trumpism. Achieving this was one of the objectives of the invitation from the President's Office to Time magazine , which detailed Zelensky's intentions in attending the meeting with his American counterpart, arriving laden with gifts that would curry favor with Donald Trump. The star gift was the world champion belt belonging to Ukrainian boxer Oleksandr Usyk, which the Ukrainian president was unable to use.

“When he took his seat in the Oval Office, Zelensky placed the belt on a side table near his right elbow, intending to reach for it and hand it to Trump in front of the assembled reporters. Instead, as the televised briefing began, Zelensky reached for another of his gifts. It was a folder containing a series of gruesome photographs of Ukrainian POWs after their captivity in Russia. Some of their bodies were grotesquely emaciated. Others showed signs of torture. ‘That’s very harsh,’ Trump said, his face pale, as he took the photos from Zelensky and began flipping through them,” says Shuster, who sees the photographs as the catalyst, or perhaps even the cause, of the subsequent derailment. “Those photos, according to some US officials, marked the moment the meeting went awry. Had Zelensky offered the championship belt, the gesture might have calmed things down,” he adds.

It doesn't occur to either the journalist or Zelensky that the reason the photographs changed the mood of the meeting wasn't the lack of gifts or the harshness of the photographs, but the fact that the Ukrainian president intended to use them to justify more war instead of working for peace. In reality, Ukraine's miscalculation is a recurring one. Kiev has yet to accept that, for those actors who see a bad peace as better than a good war , the staging of violence doesn't inspire solidarity with Ukraine, but rather reaffirms the need to end the conflict. This was the case more than a year ago with the visit of the delegation of a dozen African countries led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who, despite the obligatory stopover on Maidan and Bucha, left Ukraine with the idea of ​​​​the need for reinforced diplomacy.

That was also Donald Trump's reaction, who had hoped for a peaceful meeting in which he would take credit for the minerals deal instead of a rebuke from Zelensky seeking security guarantees that the United States wasn't going to offer in exchange for the agreement. Flattering the US president isn't something you do solely with gifts—and Moscow has so far been more successful in selecting the gifts—but with the ability to read the moment and accept that contradicting Trump on the most basic point of his thinking, that this is a bad war that must be ended, is what offended the White House team, not because of the images themselves, but because of what Zelensky intended to achieve with them.

In his attempt to regain Donald Trump's favor, the Ukrainian president has understood that he must positively value every effort for peace even if it contradicts his every instinct, praise every American effort to pressure Russia, laud the US president, and celebrate each of his successes, real or imagined. "American officials," he says, "have begun to take Putin at his word, even when their own intelligence contradicted him. 'I think Russia has managed to influence some people on the White House team through intelligence,' Zelensky told me. 'Its signal to the Americans was that the Ukrainians don't want to end the war, and something must be done to force them,' Shuster writes. Zelensky thus conveys an image of Donald Trump manipulated by Vladimir Putin, an argument that may be useful domestically, but can only harm him internationally. The Ukrainian president prefers to believe that Trump's fabrications when describing reality or providing information about the war are the product of Kremlin manipulation and not the standard Ukrainian president's actions. It is unlikely that it was Vladimir Putin who implanted in the White House leader's head that China has seized the Panama Canal, that Denmark is not a good ally, that Venezuela deliberately sends criminals to the United States, or that Cuba sponsors international terrorism.

“This is the kind of talk, true or not, that got Zelensky in trouble with the Trump team in the first place. And he's doing it again. If it's a deliberate strategy, I don't understand it,” commented American conservative journalist Daniel DePetris, insisting that the Ukrainian president is compounding his mistake by repeating it. “Zelensky learned during the war that if he pressured, belittled, and criticized his main backers, Biden and Scholz, he almost always got what he wanted; perhaps he can't change now,” added Mark Ames.

Insulting his American counterpart by suggesting he will be seen as a weak president or accusing him of being manipulated only makes things worse for Zelensky. Doing so in a front-page story aimed at attracting as much attention as possible also doesn't seem like the best course of action. Fortunately for Ukraine, contrary to his public claims, Trump's negotiating and foreign policy team is largely composed of people who have been sympathetic to Ukraine and, like Marco Rubio, have been sanctioned by both China and Russia for their belligerent behavior.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/25/ahi-es-donde-vivo/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
📍In the Belgorod direction, units of the North group of forces defeated concentrations of manpower and equipment of four mechanized brigades. The enemy's losses amounted to over 175 servicemen, two tanks, four armored combat vehicles, 18 cars and four artillery pieces.

Units of the West group of forces improved the situation along the forward edge. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 250 servicemen, a tank, four armored combat vehicles, including two M113 armored personnel carriers and a US-made HMMWV armored car.

Units of the South group of forces occupied more advantageous lines and positions. The enemy lost over 310 servicemen, a US-made M113 armored personnel carrier, five pickups, five field artillery pieces, an electronic warfare station and a fuel depot.

Units of the Center group of forces improved their tactical position. The losses of the Ukrainian armed formations amounted to 460 servicemen, six combat armored vehicles, including two US-made M113 armored personnel carriers and two French-made VAB armored personnel carriers, eight cars and four field artillery guns.

Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defenses. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 145 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, three cars and three field artillery guns, including a 155-mm self-propelled artillery unit "Panzerhaubitze 2000" made in Germany.

Units of the "Dnepr" group of forces improved the situation along the forward edge. Up to 90 servicemen, a tank, three cars, a 155-mm howitzer M777 made in the USA, an electronic warfare station and an ammunition depot were destroyed.

Air defense systems shot down four JDAM guided aerial bombs and three HIMARS multiple launch rocket system projectiles made in the United States, as well as 227 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the following have been destroyed:
— 659 aircraft,
— 283 helicopters,
— 48,312 unmanned aerial vehicles,
— 601 anti-aircraft missile systems,
— 22,471 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
— 1,530 multiple launch rocket system combat vehicles,
— 22,946 field artillery pieces and mortars,
— 33,323 units of special military automotive equipment.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

English Outsider: Russia-U.S. Talks - A Change In The Pictureby English Outsider
lifted from comments

An interview with [former British diplomat] Ian Proud changes the picture.

I had thought, as did most, that the Russians had given up on the West and were just stolidly ploughing on with their 2022 objectives. Proud asserts that this is not the case and that the Russians are genuinely interested in rapprochement with the United States.

Whether Trump himself can offer that is still perhaps an open question. He faces flat opposition from the Europeans, who still wish the war to continue. The head of the BND said recently that it would be in Europe’s interest if the war lasted another five years and we see from the reactions of various European politicians that the only "peace settlement" they could support would be one that was not consistent with the Russian war aims. For some of them RF delenda est is the only end to this war that would leave them happy.

More importantly, Trump faces significant internal opposition. His attempts at administrative reform are bitterly contested. His ideological stance and that of his supporters is a throwback to earlier days of moderate American conservatism and is quite at odds with the stance that prevailed in the Biden era – it takes little insight to see there's trouble brewing there. His view of the war in Ukraine is also at odds with the view hitherto prevailing in the American political establishment. And the midterms are looming, elections that he must do well in if he is to keep a fractious Congress with him as he attempts to push through those administrative reforms.

The last thing Trump wants, as he seeks to push through his programme in the maelstrom that is American domestic politics, is the reproach that he "lost Ukraine". That the West was always engaged in an unwinnable war there, and that Trump is now recognising that reality, will be obscured by accusations that he is a "Russian patsy" or an "appeaser". We're already seeing that accusation openly levelled against him by the Europeans and by his own domestic opposition.

That opposition does not only consist of the Democrats. A powerful wing of the Republican Party is also opposed to Trump and that wing is also opposed to any rapprochement with Russia. That wing of the Republican Party is somewhat subdued at present but it's still there and still with some support in the electorate.

So whether Trump can offer genuine rapprochement with Russia, opposed as he is by what may be regarded as effectively a coalition of the Europeans, Democrats, and even many within his own party, is uncertain. If he can offer rapprochement that's his sole card to play as he seeks an end to the hostilities in Ukraine. If Ian Proud is correct, that's a powerful card because the Russians are also interested in rapprochement.

I believe that Ian Proud is correct. The Russians are waiting warily to see which way the cat jumps but if there's a rapprochement there on offer they'll take it. The United States is too big and powerful for it to be in the Russian interest to be permanently at odds with it. As I recollect Martyanov remarking some time ago, in the long term it would be better for the Russians to find a modus vivendi with the US than not.

Unfortunately Putin himself does not have a free hand. War has its own momentum and often can render insuperable difficulties that could previously have been glossed over. A substantial portion of Putin’s electorate now believes he is being too soft by far in this war. The Security Council, judging from statements coming out from some of its members, is more hawkish than he is. His military too. And Putin himself has repeated the minimum Russian objectives so often and so clearly that he is in no position to walk them back. Those objectives stated most concisely by Lavrov in his Newsweek interview:

On 14 June, President Vladimir Putin listed prerequisites for the settlement as follows:

complete AFU withdrawal from the DPR [Donetsk People’s Republic], LPR [Luhansk People’s Republic], Zaporozhye and Kherson Oblasts;
recognition of territorial realities as enshrined in the Russian Constitution;
neutral, non-bloc, non-nuclear status for Ukraine;
its demilitarization and denazification;
securing the rights, freedoms and interests of Russian-speaking citizens;
and removal of all sanctions against Russia.


“All sanctions”. Might be some wriggle room there. In his recent speech to the regional industrialists Putin mentioned the beneficial effects of some sanctions so he might not be too worried about all of them.

“Denazification.” As said before, a vague term and would probably only amount to the removal of memorials to WWII collaborators, cessation of persecution of the Russian Orthodox Church, and the elimination of material glorifying the OUN in the schools.

But agreeing on that, as I noticed Ian Proud touching on briefly in that interview, is not as simple as all that. It is an article of faith in the western electorates and for most of the western politicians that the assertion that ultra-nationalists, or “Nazis”, have the say in Kiev is Russian propaganda. For the Russians, however, removal of those ultra-nationalists is a core objective. It’s difficult to see how Trump, or any other western politician, could come to an agreement about the removal of those ultras without admitting that that core Russian objective is justified.

The other conditions are less controversial. From the recent Witkoff/Carlson interview it didn’t seem that the territorial conditions are much of a stumbling block, though for what it matters I doubt the Europeans will accept them in a hurry. There’s the making of a peace deal there that would end the carnage in Ukraine before we insist, in real truth, on “fighting to the last Ukrainian”. But it all depends on whether Trump can get that rapprochement against the stiff European and internal opposition he’s encountering.

If he can’t, that’ll be Odessa and Kharkov gone, and further tens of thousands of casualties. Until I watched that Ian Proud interview that’s the way I thought it would go. But if someone at home in the diplomatic world reckons there’s a slim chance it won't, one can only hope that slim chance comes off.

Even Von Rundstedt, that most Prussian of Prussians and maybe the best general they had, knew when "Make peace you fools" was the only option left. Our war with Russia is lost. We should man up and accept that reality and not insist on putting our proxies through more hell.

Posted by b on March 24, 2025 at 16:34 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/03/e ... .html#more

I wouldn't put too much stock in Proud's opinion, I've been seeing his work and remain unimpressed. Whenever I see reaching like that I suspect Sino-phobia as the ulterior motive.

There certainly needs to be clear understanding between the two major nuclear powers but given the track record of Western duplicity trust will be slow coming. If they can start working those relations out while Russian tanks roll into Odessa under a rain of flowers that would work for me.

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Tucker Carlson Interviews Trump’s Diplomatic Envoy Steve Witkoff (Ukraine-Russia)
March 23, 2025 natyliesb Leave a comment



https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/03/tuc ... ne-russia/

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Kiev’s obsession with Belgorod

Lucas Leiroz

March 24, 2025

Kiev regime insists on targeting Belgorod to mask its military failures in other regions.

Kiev’s persistent attempts to attack Belgorod reflect a desperate and risky strategy in the escalating conflict with Moscow. Following Ukraine’s failed offensive in Kursk, which ended in total defeat, Ukraine faces a strategic crossroads, as retreat is not an interesting option for the regime. Instead, Kiev chose to redirect its forces toward Belgorod in a maneuver that reveals not only desperation but also a carefully calculated strategy to sabotage Russia-U.S. negotiations and maintain the narrative of “occupation” of internationally recognized Russian territory.

During the Kursk offensive, evidence suggests that Ukraine used the area as a kind of “punishment zone,” sending there soldiers considered undesirable—including criminals and rebels. There have even been reports of mutinous soldiers who were punished by being assigned to Kursk, from where Ukrainian troops rarely return alive, given the high intensity of Russian defense forces’ attacks. This choice reflects a brutal and inhumane approach, seeking to sacrifice lives for the sake of a failed strategy. Even after the defeat, Kiev continues to avoid “repatriating” these troops, opting instead to maintain the facade of an offensive by diverting attention to Belgorod.

In recent days, Ukraine has launched multiple incursions against Belgorod, using drone attacks and ground assaults that have been militarily disastrous. Attempts to penetrate with troops and armored vehicles were repelled by Russian artillery, which destroyed enemy equipment, including tanks. Reports also indicate that a F-16 fighter jet was shot down over Sumy while providing air support for the offensive.

This scenario is not unprecedented. Since 2022, Belgorod has been the target of intense Ukrainian bombardment, such as the tragic Yolka Massacre on December 30, 2023, when a Ukrainian missile killed more than twenty civilians, including many children, during a traditional Russian celebration. This tragic event is emblematic of Ukraine’s strategy: to inflict terror to destabilize Russian border regions.

I personally witnessed some of these attacks in March 2024 when I worked as a correspondent in Belgorod and saw firsthand the terror Kiev was inflicting on the region to disrupt the Russian electoral process. I saw—and survived—attacks on civilians that resulted in deaths and destruction, with no military or strategic objective other than pure terror.

In response to Ukrainian terrorism, Moscow implemented a security zone along the border, with Russian forces reinforcing Belgorod’s defense through an operation on Ukrainian soil in the neighboring Kharkov region. This strategy has significantly limited Kiev’s ability to launch ground attacks on Belgorod but has not been enough to neutralize the reach of Ukrainian missiles and drones in the region.

Kiev’s insistence on maintaining pressure on Belgorod after the defeats in Kursk reveals a desperate strategy to justify the continuation of the conflict and undermine ongoing U.S.-Russia negotiations. Kiev aims to create a narrative that demonstrates resilience, even at the cost of many of its own soldiers’ lives.

Militarily, Ukraine faces increasing difficulties in sustaining precise attacks. Moscow has sufficient reserves to repel invasions without compromising its strategic positions. Additionally, Russia operates under a partial mobilization regime, with most troops being volunteers, unlike Ukrainian forces, whose human resources are increasingly scarce and reliant on forced conscription.

Despite its defeats, Kiev continues to launch long-range missile and drone attacks, aiming to inflict significant humanitarian damage on peaceful Russian regions. This pattern suggests that Kiev has no intention of abandoning its strategy of instilling fear and chaos along the Russian border, even at a high human cost.

Not only as an analyst but also as someone who has been on the ground, I can say that Ukraine’s insistence on attacking Belgorod has become an obsession. The Kiev regime cannot tolerate the existence of peaceful, quiet towns and villages with rich cultural histories, where people live in peace along the border. Ukraine’s intention is simply to generate panic, regardless of the strategic value of its attacks.

The new offensive in Belgorod is doomed to fail. With Russian troops firmly positioned in Belgorod, Kursk, and Kharkov, as well as an emerging operation in Sumy, it is safe to say that Ukrainian forces are on yet another suicide mission, where they will certainly be encircled in a “meat grinder” at the border junction.

Despite Western media’s enthusiasm, the worst is over for Belgorod, and the future is likely to be calmer than the days of terror that afflicted the region last year.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... -belgorod/

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The O9A and the RDK. I
FBI/CIA/HUR neo-nazi pedo satanists?
Events in Ukraine
Mar 24, 2025

I used to be an English teacher in a private school in Kyiv. Since I know Russian, I was lucky enough to understand what some of my young students were saying. Driven to school by huge BMWs with tinted windows, dressed in a sharp suit, many of these 10, 12 year-olds had a shared obsession - jokes about abusing the homeless. ‘Put a bum in a box and let’s see who finds him’, one crowed during an activity to conceive of a treasure hunt.

Others were more artistic. I remember patrolling the class to see how the students were going. One 11 year old was busy doodling - his notebook was filled with dozens of swasticas.

Satanism, nazism, human IEDs, school shootings, secret services. Not to mention unspeakable acts committed against children. This is the first installment of a new series on the Order of the Nine Angles (O9A) and the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK). As it turns out, the most depraved and FBI-infiltrated nazi-satanist ideology (O9A) has some lifelong admirers in the band of self-described esoteric Hitlerists financed and armed by Russian liberal oligarchs and the Ukrainian and western governments.

Today’s article will analyze new, previously untranslated research on the links between the RDK and O9A. The sequel will analyze the recent spate in Russian school shootings in light of this network. A final article will look at the O9A publishers and supporters who remain in Russia, and the strange attitude certain Russian nationalists have towards them.

O9A
First of all, what exactly is the Order of the Nine Angles?

The O9A is a group which emerged in the British neo-nazi scene in the 1980s at the latest. It ascribes to a theory of rightwing accelerationism, according to which the maximization of chaotic violence is necessary in order to hasten the occurrence of a purifying racial war. In fact, race seems to play less of a role in their ideology than the glorification of death and violence.

Interestingly, the founder of the O9A, David Myatt, was never arrested despite the fact that his violent teachings in a Practical Guide to Aryan Revolution were cited by the perpetrator of the deadly 1999 London Bombings. But it was a subsequent figure that would become the most famous illustration of the rather worrying relationship between western governments and the O9A.

In 2020, Ethan Melzer of the 173rd Airborne Brigade was arrested in Italy, on the eve of his deployment to Turkey. He had been plotting with O9A Satanists, and allegedly, Al Qaeda to commit a false flag terror attack in a US base in Turkey. His goal was to pull the US into a new war in the middle east:

“Another 10 year war in the Middle East would definitely leave a mark,” Melzer messaged a fellow satanist. “I would’ve died successfully.”

In the course of the trial, a bombshell emerged. It turned out that Joshua Sutter, a man who had further radicalized the O9A movement throughout the 2000s with his publisher Tempel ov Blade, was an FBI agent. What’s more, he earned $140,000 from the FBI during his 20 years as an informant. This is what the Rolling Stone wrote on it:

In using Sutter as a paid informant while he continues to run his Tempel ov Blood nexion and publishing imprint, the FBI has, in effect, bankrolled one of the most extreme, perverse, and lethal ideologies to emerge from the fever swamp of the internet-driven neo-fascist revival of the early 21st century.



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Sutter the bibliophile
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Lowles maintains that by employing Sutter, the distributor and author of texts that promote not only terrorism but also pedophilia, human sacrifice, and child abuse, the FBI has given its informant way too long a leash, and innocents have paid a price.

“In the 21st century, people don’t have the Turner Diaries anymore, they have Iron Gates and Liber 333,” Lowles says, referring to Tempel ov Blood books published by Sutter. In the opening scene of Iron Gates, a desperate post-apocalyptic mob kills and devours a child, a chilling example of this brand of satanism. Bluebird dwells on the theme of pedophilia and rape. These are not idle words: Children as young as 14 have been groomed by Tempel ov Blood adherents, who have gone on to be convicted for their offenses, including sexually assaulting minors.

Sutter also attended Atomwaffen’s [a transnational terrorist neo-nazi group] 2019 “Nuclear Congress” gathering in a Las Vegas hotel room with several high-ranking members and James Mason, the author of Siege, who urged the creation of a new fascist regime through murder, small “lone wolf” terror attacks, and relentless war against the government.


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Sutter, right, alongside Atomwaffen members in 2019. As you can see, all are quite drunk.
The article also described the aim of Sutter’s FBI-sponsored activity:

Independent journalist Nate Thayer surfaced communications between Sutter and another satanist wherein Sutter labeled himself “Master of the Tempel,” and Hoy the “Blood-Mistress,” and outlined his intention to radicalize followers through repeated exposure to lurid material and texts to the point of desensitization. It’s the equivalent of creating human IEDS: people who are wired for violence and disconnected enough from morality that they have no compunction about abuse, torture, pedophilia, or any of the other practices outlined in the Tempel ov Blood texts.

In short, US law enforcement has been complicit over several decades in creating a global network of ‘human IEDs’ wired to commit the most depraved violent acts imaginable. To what end?

Kanakhin
According to specialists on rightwing terrorism, O9A organizes itself by ‘nexions’, decentralized groups spread across the world. A 2023 report claimed there to be 50 such nexions spread across the world.

In December 2015, signs appeared of an O9A nexion having formed in Russia. Sutter’s FBI-sponsored Martinet Press released a novel called Kiss of Marena: Temple of the Black Sun.

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If you’ve kept up with the Ukraine war, you will have noticed this black sun symbol on many fighters, generally Ukrainian (though not always). I wrote an article on it and other nazi paganist symbolism here. It, of course, is also part of Azov’s official symbol. They claimed to have removed the black sun recently, but many still wear it.

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A recent phot of the classic Azov black sun emblem posted by O9A affiliated Misanthropic Division

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A gym owned by Dmytro Kukharchuk, top Azov leader.

Anyway, back to Kiss of Marena. It was apparently published by a Moscow O9A nexion called Temple of the Black Sun. The Russian investigative journalist Maksim Solopov has a copy of the book, and describes its contents in a 2024 article:

The preface to the edition clarifies that the plot of the literary work is "firmly rooted in the reality surrounding this group."

The events in the book revolve around the story of a Moscow neo-Nazi pagan and his mystical experiences. The protagonist’s acquaintance—a staunch National Socialist, martial artist, and painter—introduces the young man to a closed, exclusive knife-fighting club. There, a man referred to as the "Instructor" teaches the recruits not only combat skills but also how to transition from training to actual killings.

Together with his wife, the group's leader draws selected disciples into occult rituals. By the end of the story, the young neo-Nazi evolves from a street-level subculture figure into a cold-blooded, inconspicuous serial killer—a servant of Marena, the goddess of death. The text is dated 2013 (or more precisely, the 124th year since the birth of Adolf Hitler).


The typical life of post-soviet neo-nazis. Knife gyms and mystical experiences. Anyway, the interesting thing about Kiss of Marena is who referenced it. One of the few mentions of the book in the post-soviet world was made by Kirill Kanakhin - one of the leaders of the Ukrainian-sponsored Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK). In the video below, he poses (right) alongside Alexei Levkin (more on him later) in May 2023 during their short-lived incursion into Russia’s Belgorod region: (Video at link.)

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Kanakhin, sitting, fighting alongside Azov in 2022. The man above him is wearing Militant Zone, WotanJugend merchandise, more on which later. Note the black sun on Kanakhin’s weapon.

The first of these references is from April 2021, when Kanakhin reposted a video of himself reading his poem ‘The Crusade of the Children’. According to him, he wrote it in 2012, and it gained popularity through Levkin’s Wotanjugend community (more on which also later). The video, which you can watch below, begins by referencing the O9A nexion Tempel of the Black Sun: (Video at link.)

This is a translation of the poem:

Against the vile adult world,
Against your beloved whores,
Against your treasured idols

Children will take up knives,
Children will take up pistols,
Children will shatter illusions,
Boosting newspaper circulations

And you'll spew bile,
Lounging on kitchen sofas:
"Who taught them to kill?",
"How can they hate so deeply?"

But remember how often
You refused to hear their cries—
Now they'll make you listen
By slashing your bloated guts

Your TV won't save you,
Children refuse this life any longer,
This will be a Crystal Night
For every drowned kitten,

For every ruined dream-castle,
For every princess you poisoned,
For your betrayal of Beauty,
For auctioning sacred heavens!


Is it not interesting that Kanakhin’s poem is about murders committed by children? Manipulating mentally unstable children into acts of violence against themselves and others is the calling card of the O9A-affiliated 764 network. And as we will see in a future installment, there has certainly been plenty of violence committed by neo-nazi, excessively online children in Russia of late.

Back to Kanakhin’s relationship to O9A. Kanakhin writes regarding the video that the term ‘Tempel of the Black Sun’

refers to a Moscow-based group operating within the Order of Nine Angles (O9A)—a circle that formed my main social circle for several years.

According to the aforementioned journalist Solopov, the video above was first published in 2013. It was then dedicated to the National Socialist Organization - North, whose members were arrested for dozens of murders. Solopov also notes that the video was filmed on the Kola Peninsula, the arctic region which figures prominently in Kiss of Marena.

Kanakhin seems to have been intimately involved with the book. Solopov notes that a photo of a stone featured in Kanakhin's telegram resembles the image of a 'shrine' on the Kola Peninsula used in the cover design of the American edition of 'Kiss of Marena'.

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Kanakhin and his friends probably engaged in worse things than Hitlerian poetry reading on the Kola peninsula. In April 2024, the Moscow regional court sentenced four satanists for two ritual murders committed in 2016 in these arctic wastes. The victims were part of the same occult subculture. Their flesh was subsequently cooked and eaten.

The murderers were only found in 2021, and in regards to an entirely different matter - drug dealing. They were arrested for the sale of heroin and mephedrone. The self-proclaimed followers of O9A then revealed what they’d gotten up to in Kola.

Kanakhin also claimed to have engaged in O9A rituals in Kola. However, his April 2021 post on the matter also seemed to distance himself from O9A, albeit in a highly obscure manner:

I participated in [O9A] rituals multiple times but never underwent formal initiation into their tradition.

Satanism—even an unorthodox variety like that of the O9A, which essentially amounts to dark paganism blended with Hitlerism, Jungianism, Islamo-fascism, Hermeticism, and orgies—still remains trapped within the framework of Abrahamism.
I couldn’t bring myself to accept appeals to the Devil, even as a convention or a game.

By that point, I was already drawn to Tantrism and Shaivism.


Sure. In any case, it’s hardly coincidental that one of the few people publicly linked with the Russian nexion of the O9A serves in one of the Ukrainian government’s most publicized military units.

Levkin and Kapustin
Alexei Levkin and Denis Kapustin are the most well-known representatives of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK). The RDK was created in August 2022 on the territory of Ukraine, though it claims to not be a part of the Ukrainian army. Naturally, it receives western weapons. They are also advertised by the media of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled anti-Putin ‘liberal oligarch’.

Unsurprisingly, they claim as their historical heroes the Russian anti-communists who fought alongside Hitler in the ‘Russian Volunteer Army’. Their official manifesto, ‘Homo Ethnicus’, argued for a ‘third way’ beyond liberalism and communism - ‘an Ethnic Worldview’ of unity through ‘blood and nation’.

Ironically, though Kapustin moved to Germany in his youth on a visa made available due to his Jewish roots, his Schengen visa was revoked in 2019 due to his activity in neo-nazi organizations. Even western publications are unanimous in admitting that the fighters of the RDK are ‘some of the most dangerous neo-nazis in the world’, whose only opposition to Putin’s Russia is because they ‘consider Russia dirty because of its multi-ethnic make-up.’

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Kapustin, left, and Levkin, right, pose with what seem to be Ukrainian passports in 2024. This was apparently a reward after a successful operation in Ukraine’s east.

Both are originally Russian, like Kanakhin, but have felt at home in Ukraine for the past few years. Both are also linked to the O9A.

Alexey Levkin came to Ukraine in 2014 and fought alongside Azov in the ‘Anti-Terrorist Operation’ in Ukraine’s east. He also fought in the Azov brigade from 2022 onwards, until the emergence of the RDK.

He also founded the online community WotanJugend back in 2008, when he was still living in Russia. Bellingcat wrote a long article about WotanJugend’s ‘esoteric Hitlerism’, which can be read here. The group propagandizes the ideas and actions of ‘heroes’ such as the Christchurch Shooter, Timothy McVeigh, and Anders Breivik. It has also inspired and encouraged murders of the homeless and migrants in Russia.

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Levkin has also been the lead singer of M8l8th since 2001, a national socialist black metal group which often collaborates with Kanakhin. Note that the poster above advertises ‘Solar Cross Poetry’ - this is Kanakhin’s pseudonym. It describes itself as ‘Poetry Against the Contemporary World’. M8l8th, which features the 88 sign meaning ‘Heil Hitler’ amidst the word ‘Molot’, or hammer, is also known as ‘Hitler’s Hammer’. If you like, you can have a look at an English page with their lyrics here. Levkin seems to find enough spare time outside of his military service to record well-produced music videos like this:



But they don’t limit themselves to black metal. Levkin put out a more conventional song with Kanakhin to celebrate the Belgorod raid:



All the top comments are making 88 jokes:

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The RDK was even graced by a long 2025 interview with Levkin published by Ukraine’s ‘Army Inform’, an official website representing the military. About half of the discussion concerns M8l8th and recollections about the rightwing subculture of Ukraine. It finishes by asking Levkin about his ‘concerts, which are particularly energetic’. Levkin gladly obliges, and talks at length about his project Asgardsrei and his recent concert Yule Night.

Levkin’s label ‘Militant Zone’ works closely with Kanakhin in the retailing of occult literature, merchandise and music. Both have been closely integrated into Ukraine’s broader Azov movement for years. Levkin is full of praise for Azov in interviews:

“there’s already a movement that deserves support…I’m talking about [Azov’s] National Corps and the National Militia as the former’s power wing.”

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Levkin poses with the leader of Azov (right), Andrii Biletsky

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Levkin is in centre, with beard. This undated photo was published by the National Corps, Azov’s political party. Behind his left soldier is Nikita Makeev, another Russian Azovite who was given Ukrainian citizenship by Zelensky in July 2019. Third from his left is former Ukrainian MP Oleh Petrenko.

Kapustin, leader of the RDK, visited a training camp run by the British neo-nazis National Action in 2014. Members of this organization were subsequently arrested by British law enforcement for terrorist plots. Their ties to O9A figured in the cases. One of them, Ryan Fleming, was convicted among other things, of sexual abuse of a mentally disabled young boy. According to Hope not Hate, Fleming was also the author of various stories for Martinet Press involving sexual violence against children.

The first lady of the fourth reich
One of my followers on twitter was even kind enough to point to a case where Joshua Sutter himself visited an Azov event in Ukraine.

Olena Semenyaka has been described as the “first lady of Ukrainian nationalism”. This leading intellectual figure of the Azov movement is also fond of the O9A. The FBI informant Sutter attended Semenyaka’s 2018 “Pact of Steel” conference in Kyiv. Sutter brought several Atomwaffen members along with him.

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Sutter is the man with the atrocious beard

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Atomwaffen members

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Atomwaffen hard at work elsewhere
What better guests to invite to the vanguard of Western Civilization, Democracy and European Values?

Deep operations
It should be emphasized that the RDK was a pet project of Kyryllo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR). According to the NYT, Budanov’s spy service was lovingly curated and assisted by western intelligence services since 2014. Their shared passion, of course, were operations on Russian soil.

Kapustin, Kanakhin, and Levkin are certainly the ideal people to recruit if you are interested in activating terrorist networks in Russia. Levkin constantly boasts of how many RDK followers there are in Russia, as well as posting photos of RDK graffiti deep in Russia. Here is what specialist on O9A-RDK links Oleg Solopov had to say on the matter in June 2023:

Some pretend that the RDK is merely a media project of Ukrainian intelligence. Yes, as a battlefield unit, they are too small. However, in the 2010s, it was precisely WotanJugend and Kapustin's White Rex project that became a focal point for the most radical segment of the far-right.

A quick analysis of the White Rex community on VK, which was abandoned in 2020: out of 44,500 subscribers, 5,500 listed Moscow as their place of residence, 644 – Rostov-on-Don, 88 – Belgorod, 60 – Bryansk, and 55 – Kursk. Among them, many were drawn in by the brutal aesthetics, and some have taken a conformist stance. But even if just 1% have maintained their "firm beliefs," that still amounts to a network of 500 potential terrorism accomplices with the support of a neighboring state’s intelligence services.


The following text is also from Solopov:

RDK symbolism spotted in the Moscow region near Ukhtomskaya station. The photo comes from the banned Wotan Jugend community, which is linked to RDK and has glorified and inspired serial killers of homeless people and migrants. Eyewitnesses have confirmed the graffiti’s location. Next, a photo of WJ supporters at a legal march in Moscow in May 2014, carrying a slogan in support of Maidan.

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If all that wasn’t enough, the RDK is also tight with Zelensky’s ruling clique. The chief ideologue of the RDK is the son of the Servant of the People’s director. A good soviet family. Here’s what he had to say about Zelensky:

"Zelensky presented himself in such a way that I was completely taken aback. His rhetoric, and especially the fact that Israel is indeed maintaining a neutrality favorable to Russia, leads me to think that Volodymyr Oleksandrovych is, after all, 'our’ Kike (in Churchill's sense), and not just ZOG. And it's hard to call him an oligarch. I know him personally, just so you know.”

Obviously, the RDK’s military adventures into Russian territory didn’t go too well. But Joshua Sutter and the like weren’t specialized in combined arms operations. Instead, one could expect those involved in the O9A to be adept at covert operations and stochastic violence.

Not the first, not the last
Today’s article has analyzed the many links between western rightwing acceleration satanist groups and rightwing militarized groups sponsored by the Ukrainian government. My next article will analyze school shootings and other acts of seemingly ‘random’ violence in Russia in this light. But for now, a taste - the case of Semen Chulkov.

In March 18, 2024, Russian police knocked on his apartment door in a town near Moscow - he was wanted for the repeated rape of a 14 year old girl, as well as for a series of violent attacks on randomly selected victims.

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The shaven, tattooed man opened the door in his underwear, holding a machete. He offered no resistance and has been open about his views. He proudly confirmed to police what he wrote online about his ideology:

NUCLEAR WAR, GENOCIDE, AND RAPED NUNS, SADISM, PERVERSIONS

He also named his greatest inspirations - O9A and Misanthropic Division, an Azovite group that emerged in 2014 and heavily advertises towards foreigners online. Here’s what he had to say about them:

Excellent examples of militant Satanic groups," … "true demons, Satanists, and black magicians must create their associations, drawing on their experience.

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Become a paid subscriber to gain access to part II of this series, which will investigate Russia’s many ‘lone wolf’ attacks, often committed by children. A Crusade of the Children, in Kanakhin’s words. The links are not only poetic.

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... -the-rdk-i
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Wed Mar 26, 2025 12:38 pm

Silence in the Black Sea
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/26/2025

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More concerned with defending his integrity in the face of the scandal caused by the news that Donald Trump's National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, had allegedly mistakenly included a well-known journalist in a private chat in which Vice President Vance, Pentagon Secretary Hegseth, and other senior administration officials discussed the impending bombing of Yemen, Trumpism has pushed aside the three days of intense diplomacy he conducted in Saudi Arabia, with separate meetings with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations. On Monday, after a full day of meetings with the Ukrainian envoys, it was the Russian Federation's turn, which yesterday insisted that details of the meeting, which Dmitry Peskov described as "technical meetings," would not be disclosed. The absence of individuals like Sergey Lavrov leading the negotiations was an indication that what was being prepared were concrete steps toward fulfilling some of the measures that have been on the table over the past few days and weeks, rather than political issues that would make headlines. Yesterday, the Ukrainian Defense Minister also used the term "bilateral technical consultations" for the three-day meeting. Following the initial contact on Sunday and the marathon ten-hour meeting between Russia and the United States, the Ukrainian delegation, which had been asked to remain in Saudi Arabia, was recalled for consultations again yesterday to finalize the limited progress that had been made.

“We have concluded our meeting with the American team. The discussion was productive and focused: we covered key points, including energy. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s goal is to ensure a just and lasting peace for our country and our people, and, by extension, for all of Europe. We are working to make that goal a reality,” Rustem Umerov wrote after the conclusion of Sunday’s meeting between Ukraine and the United States. The presence of a higher-profile delegation than the Russian and American ones shows Ukraine’s weakness, which has made it clear for months that its main negotiation will not be with Russia, with whom it does not wish to engage in dialogue, but with its allies, whose strength is the only tool with which Kyiv can hope to achieve some of its increasingly unrealistic objectives. Despite constant references to the need for a ceasefire, the insistence on European security and demands to force Russia to accept a ceasefire that Ukraine complied with under pressure, the idea of ​​a just and lasting peace , a euphemism that implies compliance with the points of Zelensky's Peace Formula , which demands Russian surrender, the restoration of territorial integrity according to its 1991 borders, remains Kiev's unattainable desire.

“No one expected Ukraine to achieve all these goals, let alone in the short term,” writes Simon Shuster in his cover story published by Time magazine , adding that “even so, Zelensky and his team considered the formula their North Star, not a practical roadmap to peace, but an ideal to which the world’s diplomats should aspire to end the war. ‘It lays out what we would consider the final resolution to this crisis and its aftermath,’ says Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, who is also Ukraine’s chief negotiator. ‘We maintain that vision.’” Ukraine’s objective has not changed, although reality has forced Zelensky to put on a brave face and talk about the need for peace while looking for ways to keep the political, economic, and diplomatic struggle active to achieve in the long term what his military has failed to do.

Yesterday, in an appearance before the Senate, John Ratcliff emphasized the unrealistic idea that the "Ukrainian resistance" would continue fighting, even if it lost foreign funding and had to do so manually, until it achieved an acceptable result. The CIA director insisted that Donald Trump has conveyed to the parties that it will not be possible to achieve their maximalist objectives, something evident since it became clear in 2022 that the war was heading for an inconclusive end. The failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023 only confirmed that, despite multi-million-dollar international military assistance, Ukraine would not be able to expel Russia from Donbas, Crimea, and even the territories under its control in Kherson and Zaporozhye. The need for negotiations to achieve progress toward peace was a fact that neither the Biden administration nor the European Union wanted to accept.

“The European Union reiterated this Monday its support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, rejecting the referendums [sic] held in 2022 in the regions occupied by Russia as “a farce”, at a time when the United States is negotiating a ceasefire with Moscow and these territories could become a bargaining chip,” Europa Press wrote yesterday , reflecting that European countries have not yet accepted that the demand for the recovery of Ukraine’s territorial integrity is currently an unrealizable desire that would require an even more multi-million dollar and long-term effort, both one that the EU does not have the capacity to propose and the United States has made clear it has no intention of making.

Washington's interest remains in making progress toward a ceasefire that will allow for negotiations on the final issues and a treaty to end the war, a task that even Donald Trump now knows will not be a matter of hours, or even weeks. Like war, diplomacy requires certain progress from the participating countries and mediators to allow it to move forward. The main progress made in recent days is limited to the Black Sea issue, where the focus is apparently on returning to the agreement that allowed grain exports and civilian navigation in the area between 2022 and 2023. This agreement, which only partially worked, never managed to secure the promised compensation for Russia in the form of market access for its agricultural products and, above all, fertilizers, which are important for global agriculture.

The two-part statement released by the United States announcing the outcome of the three days of meetings refers to the US-Ukraine and US-Russia agreements. Three of the four detailed points are exactly the same: an agreement to "ensure the safety of navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea" and to "develop measures to implement the agreement between President Trump and President Putin to prohibit attacks against Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities." In addition to these preliminary agreements, which cannot be described as a maritime ceasefire, as some media outlets did yesterday, but rather as a declaration of intent, the three countries, separately, "welcome the good offices of third countries with a view to supporting the implementation of the energy and maritime agreements" and will continue working to achieve a stable and lasting peace.

The only difference in the statements is the second point, which addresses some of the major concerns of Kyiv and Moscow. In the case of Ukraine, the United States expresses "its commitment to helping achieve the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children," while offering assistance to Russia in restoring its access "to the global market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, reducing marine insurance costs, and improving access to ports and payment systems for these types of transactions." This last section is the most relevant, as it would represent a clear concession from the United States to Russia, aimed at restoring a new variant of what was the grain export agreement to free civilian navigation in the Black Sea not only for Ukraine, but also for Russia. "We will need clear guarantees. And given the sad experience of agreements only with Kyiv, guarantees can only be the result of an order from Washington to Zelensky and his team to do one thing and not the other," Sergey Lavrov stated yesterday. In the afternoon, the Russian side made the ceasefire in the Black Sea, where Budanov has not achieved any significant success for months, conditional on access to the market for Russian agricultural products.

The experience of many years of unfulfilled promises means that every agreement, even those that do not entail major military changes, is viewed with reluctance, requires marathon "technical" meetings, and its future fulfillment is always uncertain. However, neither Russia nor Ukraine wants to be perceived as the party obstructing peace and is forced to take steps toward some kind of ceasefire, even a partial one. In the evening, the Kremlin confirmed an agreement under which the parties commit not to attack power plants, gas or oil pipelines, and refineries, a further step toward the partial truce agreed upon last week by Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/26/silen ... mar-negro/

Google Translator

*****

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Despite Zelensky's public statement about accepting the Russian-American agreements reached in Riyadh on March 24 to stop attacks on civilian energy facilities, the Kiev regime continued to strike the energy infrastructure of the Russian Federation.

On the night of March 26, near the coast of Crimea in the area of ​​Cape Tarkhankut, two Ukrainian attack UAVs were shot down by air defense systems on duty. The target of the attack was the ground equipment of the Glebovskoye underground gas storage facility.

Also, on March 26 at about 4:45 Moscow time in the Bryansk region, as a result of an attack by a Ukrainian UAV on a facility of the branch of PJSC Rosseti Center - Bryanskenergo, a 10 kV high-voltage line was disconnected, leaving consumers in the Komarichsky district without power.

In addition, on the afternoon of March 25, in the Kursk region, as a result of an attack by a Ukrainian UAV on an energy facility of a branch of PJSC Rosseti Center - Kurskenergo, a cascade shutdown of a number of substations occurred, as a result of which more than 4 thousand consumers in the Khomutovsky district were left without power supply.

Thus, the Kiev regime, continuing to damage the civilian energy infrastructure of Russia, is in fact doing everything to disrupt the Russian-American agreements reached on step-by-step measures to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Agreements in Riyadh
March 25, 18:01

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The Trump administration announced that agreements had been reached on Ukraine:

1. The United States and Russia agreed to ensure safe navigation and exclude the use of force against commercial vessels in the Black Sea.

2. The United States and Ukraine agreed to develop a mechanism to prohibit strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities.

3. The United States will help restore Russia's access to the world market for the export of agricultural products and fertilizers.

4. The United States intends to facilitate Russia's expanded access to ports and payment systems for the export of fertilizers and food.

5. The United States and Ukraine agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9745835.html

All who watched Ganul's murder must be punished.
March 25, 23:09

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Farion's daughter demands that those Odessans who calmly watched as Nazi Ganul was killed right on the street be punished. No one stood up for him or tried to save him.

In fact, all that remains is to wish that Farion's daughter be sent to the same place where her frenzied mother was sent along with Ganul. A good Nazi is a dead Nazi.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9746502.html

USSR nuclear weapons never belonged to Ukraine
March 26, 11:29

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The US reported (or rather Trump's special representative Richard Grenell, the former director of US national intelligence) that the USSR's nuclear weapons never belonged to Ukraine and were simply temporarily located on Ukrainian territory after the collapse of the USSR, after which they were taken to Russia.

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Republican Senator Mike Lee added that the US was never obliged to follow the terms of the Budapest Memorandum.

Against this backdrop, the cocaine Fuhrer threw a tantrum, where he stated that Ukraine has no money for an army, so it should be financed by the US and the EU.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9747051.html

Agreement to end attacks on energy
colonelcassad
March 26, 8:41

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Agreement to end attacks on energy

Russia and the United States have agreed on a list of Russian and Ukrainian facilities subject to a temporary moratorium on attacks on the energy system, the Kremlin reports.

— Oil refineries.

— Oil and gas pipelines and storage facilities, including pumping stations.

— Electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, including power plants, substations, transformers and distributors.

— Nuclear power plants.

— Hydroelectric dams.

The temporary moratorium is valid for 30 days from March 18 and can be extended by mutual agreement.

If one of the parties violates the moratorium, the other party has the right to consider itself free from obligations to comply with it.

P.S. The enemy will almost certainly disrupt these agreements.
P.S. 2. At night, the Russian Armed Forces traditionally launched 150+ Geraniums at Ukraine. The attacks were especially strong in Krivoy Rog.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9746730.html

Google Translator

******

Negotiation background: Another attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian energy facilities
March 25, 2025
Rybar

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Yesterday, negotiations between delegations of Russia and the United States took place in Riyadh , where they discussed demands for achieving a truce. During the conversation, which lasted 12 hours, the Russian leadership expressed hope that Washington would be able to force the authorities of the so-called Ukraine to implement the agreements adopted.

Against the backdrop of (and during) the meeting in Saudi Arabia, the enemy once again attacked Russia's energy infrastructure. The targets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' raid were the Svatovo gas distribution station in the LPR , the energy infrastructure of the Rostov region, and, for the third time in recent days, the Glebovskoye gas storage facility .

Casualties and destruction were avoided, according to official data, the enemy did not cause serious damage to strategic facilities. However, as we have said before, we should not relax in thoughts of imminent peace - the attack that took place will definitely not be the last.

In the context of the night attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the statements by the so-called Ukrainian Minister of Defense Umerov after a meeting with the US delegation, where he reaffirmed his commitment to “achieving a lasting peace,” inspire little confidence.

https://rybar.ru/peregovornyj-fon-ocher ... ie-obekty/

Survival instead of development: What is the infrastructure of the so-called Ukraine being prepared for
March 26, 2025
Rybar

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Germany is dismantling its own energy infrastructure to transfer equipment to the so-called Ukraine. According to sources, we are talking about closed factories whose capacities are being sent to the Kiev regime free of charge .

However, the point is not even that the Germans are again working against themselves, giving their last to support a corrupt bottomless barrel, but what this actually means for the so-called Ukraine.

Even at the early stages of the conflict, we pointed out that European countries would not be able to mass-produce electrical equipment to replace that destroyed in the so-called Ukraine. The supply of used products instead of new ones confirms these assumptions.

Moreover, the EU is actively engaged in designing Ukrainian power grids according to European standards . This involves switching to 220 kV and 400 kV voltages, as well as adapting the principles of dispatching, automation and control of the power system in accordance with EU standards.

Considering that the concept of distributed generation in the so-called Ukraine is not just a theoretical idea, but a real plan that is already being implemented, this indirectly indicates that the heavy industry of the Kiev regime will not be restored.

The fact that no one was going to reconstruct the so-called Ukraine, much less increase its industrial and technological potential, is an open secret. New data only confirms the intention to preserve only the infrastructure that will ensure survival and dependence on external aid.

https://rybar.ru/vyzhivanie-vmesto-razv ... n-ukrainy/

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"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Thu Mar 27, 2025 11:56 am

The withdrawal from Kursk according to Ukrainian soldiers
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/27/2025

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“Russian forces have resumed their attacks in the Pokrovsk sector of the Donetsk region,” Mykola Koval, spokesman for the Chervona Kalyna Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, said on March 25,” The Kyiv Independent wrote yesterday , citing the same source as adding that “Russian military personnel are attacking Ukrainian positions “as at the beginning of the active phase” in the Pokrovsk sector, involving more first-person view (FPV) drones and artillery, as well as infantry.” “It is very difficult to deter the enemy with such an influx,” Koval said. The situation in the Pokrovsk-Artyomovsk area has returned to what happened a few weeks ago when, as Russia increased its presence in Kursk, Ukraine mobilized its reserves to hold the line and counterattack around the city and also in Toretsk, where the advances and retreats of the two sides continue in an urban battle that Moscow prematurely believed was over.

Although Ukraine continues to attack and carry out raids along the northeastern section of the Russian border, specifically in Belgorod, with the aim of anchoring Russian troops there so they cannot attack Sumi or be transferred to Donbass, the bulk of Moscow's military effort is once again in Donbass. The fundamental change compared to a few weeks ago is the victory at Kursk, which, although not yet complete, has limited Kyiv's troop presence in that Russian territory to a minimum. This defeat for Ukraine, which, along with those territories, loses a card it had hoped would be important in any eventual negotiations, has been the subject of much speculation. Prominent among them is the theory that it was the United States that let Ukraine fall into its Russian adventure. "The next day," writes Simon Shuster in Time , referring to the catastrophic Oval Office meeting, "Trump put the minerals deal on hold and decided to get tough with Zelensky."

The journalist draws a direct line between that meeting and the suspension of military aid to Ukraine. “Without access to US satellite data, they lost the ability to detect approaching Russian bombers and cruise missiles. As a result, Ukraine had less time to warn civilians and military personnel of an impending airstrike. The impact was most acute in Russia's Kursk region, where the Russians advanced rapidly,” he writes, adhering to the theory that it was the loss of that aid that doomed an operation that always seemed suicidal. However, not even the Ukrainian president is willing to accept that scenario. “Zelensky declined to blame the Trump administration. ‘It’s not related,’ he told me. ‘Don’t get me wrong. The mood always depends on whether your partners are on your side. But I wouldn’t say the freeze influenced the Kursk operation,’” Shuster writes.

After the initial surprise of the Ukrainian breakthrough in Kursk and the Russian withdrawal from a significant portion of the oblast , it became clear that there would be no rush and that the operation to recover the territory would be a long-term one, even if it meant giving Ukraine and the Russian nationalist sectors to the right of the Kremlin ammunition to claim that Russia was being humiliated. The West has explained Ukraine's defeat in its Russian adventure by appealing to arguments such as Trump's intentions and, above all, the miraculous role of the North Korean troops, who, depending on the needs of the scenario, either died en masse or achieved advances that their Russian counterparts could not. With the defeat now over, opinions are beginning to appear from soldiers who lived through the withdrawal and testify about the situation the Ukrainian troops found themselves in and what the retreat was like. The narrative emerging from these texts is based on a common premise: there has been no siege, and there was no truth in Donald Trump's claim that he would beg Vladimir Putin to spare the lives of those thousands of soldiers who were only besieged in his imagination. The Russian president, aiming not to contradict his American counterpart, followed the story and announced that he would guarantee the lives of those thousands of soldiers who did not exist, but who could have existed. Long before the massive withdrawal of Ukrainian troops took place, media outlets such as Reuters were warning that tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers were at risk of being surrounded by Russian troops and cut off from Ukrainian supply lines.

This is also the version of one of the soldiers in a report published this week by Ukrainska Pravda , which opens by explaining that “in early March, a group of Ukrainian reconnaissance troops, following orders from their commanders, moved from their positions near the Russian city of Suya toward the Ukrainian border. At that time, Ukrainian troops controlled approximately 350 square kilometers of the Kursk Oblast , compared to 100 today. The distance they had to travel from point A to point B was about 15-20 km. It took them two days, including hiding from FPV drones and making rest stops.” Clearly, this withdrawal was not organized nor could it have been carried out in the troop transport vehicles that the West so generously donated to Ukraine, claiming that both Kyiv and the Ukrainians care about the safety of their soldiers, unlike the Russian Federation or its North Korean allies.

“Most of the time, the group moved at night, hoping the Russians had fewer night drones than daytime ones. But traveling in the dark has one major drawback, the guys say: you can't shoot at an enemy FPV when you can't see it,” the outlet adds. Without giving their names to avoid reprisals for realistically detailing how the retreat unfolded, the soldiers describe an initial withdrawal—or a retreat to more advantageous positions , as Ukraine claimed for days—that didn't turn into an order to retreat until it was too late. “The order to approach the border, which they received in early March, did not mean the beginning of the Ukrainians' withdrawal from the Kursk region. That was still a few days away. But the order was related to one of the catalysts for the withdrawal: the Russians had broken through the Ukrainian defensive line south of Suya and were rapidly approaching the on-site supply and evacuation routes of the defense forces in the Kursk region,” Ukrainska Pravda adds.

“‘The bus wasn’t running anymore, so we had to walk,’ a soldier from the group known as Maiak joked to Ukrainska Pravda . Maiak suffered a muscle contusion during the retreat. ‘Damn Kursk,’ is how another soldier, a foreigner with the alias Gangster who has been fighting for Ukraine since 2022, described the route,” the article writes, showing the frustration of the defeated soldiers. “By chance, and without their knowledge, Maiak and Gangster were supposed to hold those roads, their comrade told UP . Otherwise, the Ukrainian troops risked being surrounded on Russian territory. “They don’t tell you: ‘Go and hold the road.’ They tell you: ‘The course is such and such, open the map and go to that point,’” Gangster later told UP . The encirclement didn't happen, in part because the soldiers themselves recognized the danger and retreated before the order arrived, but the risk wasn't the product of Donald Trump's creative mind or something Vladimir Putin made him believe.

“Ukrainian troops in the Kursk Oblast did not find themselves in difficult defensive conditions overnight. Since the fall of 2024, there had been problems with logistics, communications, and a lack of experienced infantry capable of holding the positions the paratroopers had won. And these problems, according to UP sources , had been ignored by the command of the Kursk military group, which had been taken over by the Air Assault Forces Command since the fall,” the outlet admits, whose sources present the Russian attacks on the Ukrainian flanks as definitive, forcing the troops to withdraw in several directions, including around Suya, where their presence was apparently more consolidated.

“Most UP sources in the officer corps believe that the operation's command erred by placing the weakest units on the flanks of the Kursk salient, while the strongest, including the 95th, 80th, and 82nd Air Assault Brigades, remained in the center of the Ukrainian salient, on the railway to Lgov and the highway to Kursk.” Beyond drones, North Korean troops, or Donald Trump's decisions, human error or poor planning of operations is key, especially those whose long-term success has always been questionable.

“The further Ukrainian forces retreated along the flanks, the closer the Russians and their drones came to the Ukrainians' main logistical artery: the SumyiYunakovka-Suya highway. The situation for the Ukrainian group worsened further in early January 2025, when the Russians began flying large numbers of drones over the highway using fiber-optic technology that could not be jammed by electronic warfare. Every pickup truck heading toward Kursk Oblast—and even more so, every armored vehicle—risked being hit or burned,” details Ukrainska Pravda , which paints a picture of imminent defeat long before Donald Trump ordered a temporary halt to military aid supplies. By then, Russia had found the key to both the tactics and the weapons that would most damage its opponent's military effort. “We walked 12 km carrying ammunition, grenades, water, enough food for three days, thermal clothing, and spare socks. Of course, it was tough. Plus, every 30-40 minutes you had to hide from the drones, sit under cover, and wait,” one of the soldiers, who had been fighting their way to positions in those conditions for a month, told UP . But even then, Ukraine didn't give the order to withdraw from a battle that was clearly lost.

“In the end, because the Russians attacked the flanks, advanced through the gas pipelines, and demolished the bridges around Suya, the [Ukrainian] defense forces came dangerously close to being trapped. This became evident between March 6 and 9,” one soldier recounts, adding that “the retreat was completely forced.” “We knew time was running out and that we only had days or hours left, but we spent a week in total chaos waiting for at least some kind of permission to withdraw. Staying there and continuing to fight was beyond unbearable. In the end, we made the decision to leave on our own.”

While not explicitly criticizing the Ukrainian command's actions, the Ukrainska Pravda report reveals its disagreement with the way the military and political authorities handled the final phase of the Russian adventure. "This is how the phrase 'logistics in the Kursk area are difficult' should be interpreted: from at least early or mid-February, the Ukrainian garrison on Russian territory could not transport personnel to positions by vehicle, operate equipment, or quickly send reinforcements to repel assaults," it writes after collecting the testimony of one of the soldiers, who claims that they walked 15-20 kilometers to deliver supplies to the front positions.

But even so, one must always believe in the lesser evil. “Those who comment most openly on the Kursk operation, while still supporting it, are convinced that, from a strictly military point of view, the withdrawal from Russian territory should have taken place after the Russian counteroffensive in the fall of 2024. However, if that had happened, the defense forces would obviously not have managed to annihilate some 20,000 Russians there,” the article adds, willing to believe the figures provided by the same command, which described the fact that soldiers had to walk cross country to deliver ammunition as logistically difficult , and that even after the battle was lost, it did not order its soldiers to withdraw, at least in some cases, and that they retreated on their own.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/27/31847/

Google Translator

*******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
Positive news has been coming in from a number of directions since the morning.

1. In the Kursk region, our troops have advanced near Guevo and continue to put pressure on Oleshnya. The control zone in the border areas of the Sumy region is also expanding.
2. In the Krasnolimansk direction, our troops have entered Katerinoka, and battles are underway to liberate the village.
3. In the area of ​​the former New York, our troops are clearing Panteleimonovka and the Alexandropol area.
4. In the southern Donetsk direction, our troops have advanced toward Vesyoloye and are fighting for the village. There is also progress to the west of Burlatskoye.

***

Colonelcassad
1:04
Ukrainian special services, under the cover of the American RAND Corporation, are recruiting in Russia and trying to obtain secret information concerning the SVO (c) FSB

Ukrainian special services are contacting Russians via instant messengers, preferably "connected with military service", and offering them money to cooperate with the RAND Corporation and pass on secret data.

The purpose of these contacts is to obtain secret materials about the combat use of strategic aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, the number and deployment of the Russian Armed Forces units involved in the SVO.


P.S. The mass recruitment of agents by foreign special services was invented by the paranoid Stalin (c)

***

Forwarded from
Heroes of Special Operation Z
The classic competition between shells and armor during the conflict in Ukraine has acquired a new form — a confrontation between drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems. We have already talked about the principles of EW operation and why full protection of equipment and personnel locations is impossible without these systems. Let's talk about what types of drones there are.

The word "drone" is used today as a general name for unmanned and unmanned surface, underwater, ground and aerial vehicles. The most widespread are aircraft, or UAVs, of several types. The main ones are: multi-rotor, single-rotor, aircraft-type UAVs and hybrid . The latter combine the advantages of several types of UAVs at once, but are not widely used. Most often, they have the ability to take off and land vertically, but fly like an airplane.

Until recently, aircraft-type UAVs were the most common. Due to the wings that create lift, they have excellent load-carrying capacity and energy efficiency. Some of these drones are capable of staying in the air for more than a day. Often, the range of such UAVs is limited not by the fuel supply or battery capacity, but by the ability to receive control signals.

Airplane-type drones are used as reconnaissance and strike/kamikaze drones. They also have disadvantages: they require a runway or a catapult, which exposes the crew and reduces its mobility. The designs of such UAVs can be very different. For example, drones of the Orlan family resemble classic airplanes, Geran-2 is a “flying wing”, and Lancets are made according to an unusual design with two sets of X-shaped planes.

Single-rotor UAVs are otherwise called helicopter-type drones. Their design is in many ways similar to the helicopters we are all familiar with. This design is also relatively cost-effective and has a fairly decent flight range, but is difficult to manufacture and operate, which makes "helicopters" unprofitable. In addition, they have a relatively low speed and carrying capacity. Unlike aircraft-type drones, their scope of application is narrower. However, they are great, for example, for patrolling sea areas and identifying unmanned boats. Various containers with weapons can be suspended from such UAVs.

The most famous type of drones are multi-rotor UAVs. In fact, they are most often called drones. The most common are quadcopters, that is, UAVs with four engines, optimal in terms of time, speed, flight stability and carrying capacity. Such drones have found wide application in the civilian sector and have proven to be very successful for military use.

Among their advantages are compactness, the ability to carry a fairly heavy load, maneuverability and high speed. They do not require runways or catapults, and the cheapness of FPV drones (that is, drones with a camera that provide a picture from the first person) allowed them to become almost ideal kamikaze drones. Gradually, they filled the skies in the SVO zone.

Most of them are controlled by transmitting radio signals, which makes them susceptible to the effects of electronic warfare. Drone creators are trying to find various ways to bypass "jammers", and therefore the most important criterion for the success of electronic warfare is the creation of sufficiently powerful interference in a wide frequency range. For example, the Slavyanka electronic warfare system works in a similar way , creating a "dome" around equipment or, for example, a dugout that is impenetrable to radio signals, upon encountering which the drone loses control and falls.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

*******

Negotiation speculation

Trump and Teddy. The lessons of February 2014. Zelensky on the brink of treason? Don't bet on a coup. Death to the fifth columnists. Moscow's cunning ceasefire calculations
Events in Ukraine
Mar 25, 2025

It can be difficult analyzing the latest negotiation updates. On the one hand, I find it hard to resist optimism that this war might finally end. On the other hand, I recall my optimism in December-February 2022 that the US was going to force Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements, thereby avoiding war. After all, all the Ukrainian officials and nationalists were hystericizing about this allegedly imminent prospect…

Ukrainian publication strana.ua also worry that the current promises of peace might be illusory in a March 22 article. In it, they recall that the euromaidan protests were also seemingly ‘resolved’ by a February 16-18 ceasefire mediated by European leaders. But though the militarized protestors abandoned some of their positions, they went on the offensive once again on the 18th and 19th, leading to the mysterious deaths of around 100 protestors and riot police. I analyzed the sequence of events in these fateful few days in this article.

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Euromaidan protestors with a hunting rifle, February 20 2014

In short, the February 2014 ceasefire failed to deal with the fact that both sides viewed their antagonism as irresolvable by means other than annihilation of the enemy, leading to the inevitable renewal of even more vicious hostilities. The present parallels should be obvious.

Agnosticism is hence a healthy attitude in the current situation. Today’s post will be focusing mainly on the stakes of the negotiations - what would a ceasefire really mean? I’ll get into some of the technicalities of the negotiations as well, but with the main focus being the strategic value of a ceasefire to both the Russian and Ukrainian governments. Our topics include:

Skepticism from a pro-peace Ukrainian commentator on the success of the Trump-Putin talks

Insinuations that the Zelensky government is about to commit ‘treason’ by pro-western Ukrainian politicians. Ex-president Poroshenko also enters the fray

Former Ukrainian politicians now residing in Russia discuss the talks - while not optimistic about the likelihood of any anti-Zelensky coups, they do think that elections in the country could be good for Moscow.

Analysts from the Russian publication Mash weigh in with some fascinating speculations about the future of Ukraine’s politics, and why a ceasefire, even a temporary, fragile one, is in Russia’s interests

How Trump may be hoping to recreate the diplomatic successes of Theodore Roosevelt

Ukrainian Azovites moan about the need to purge society of fifth columnists before any elections, and even whine that the Ukrainian government may have it out for them

Ukrainian skepticism
On the one hand, influential Ukrainian analyst Ruslan Bortnyk is skeptical that Trump and Putin have been able to come to any agreements following their March 18 phone call.



Bortnyk contrasted the lack of any jointly signed communique between Trump and Putin to the jointly signed communique between Ukraine and the US in Saudi Arabia:

At least five official high-level contacts and negotiations, with Putin personally involved in at least three—since Witkoff also spoke with Putin twice, in addition to the two calls between the U.S. president and Vladimir Putin.

This means the contact track has existed for a while, and both sides were already well acquainted with each other’s positions.

Given this, it seems illogical that after these latest talks—the March 18 phone call between Trump and Putin—the sides did not issue a joint statement. Instead, they released separate press releases.


Bortnyk also pointed out the existence of differences between the American and Russian press releases on the meeting. Most importantly, only the Russian press release spoke of a halt to western military aid to Ukraine, an end to mobilization in Ukraine, and a mention of the ‘unreliability’ of the Ukrainian government.

Bortnyk is an analyst often cited by the likes of Politico, but who himself is generally considered in Ukraine to be on the side of the systemic ‘pro-Russian’ opposition. Which is to say that his skepticism regarding peace doesn’t come from any desire for the war to continue indefinitely.

Former minister of Ukraine’s ministry of foreign affairs Pavlo Klimkin, interviewed on March 24 by USAID-funded Ukrainska Pravda, was also skeptical of the likelihood of a long-term ceasefire:

When asked whether it would be a complete ceasefire (like during Minsk-1 and Minsk-2) or a hybrid one (like the current "energy ceasefire" where hundreds of drones fly daily but [Kremlin representative] Peskov claims "we don't strike energy infrastructure"), my response was that I don't see a fundamental difference between now, then, or the future. Ceasefires are very easy to break or violate – especially now when we have a frontline of over 1,000 km, where anyone can prepare operations. This includes both state and non-state actors involved in this. Building a monitoring and verification system is extremely difficult."



Meanwhile, another Poroshenko-era diplomat Valery Chaly (ambassador to the US from 2015-2019) struck a quite threatening tone in aMarch 24 interview on negotiations for BBC Ukraine. He emphasized several times that any Ukrainian politician who signed any document agreeing that de facto lost territories be de jure Russian would immediately be considered a traitor per the Ukrainian constitution.



Chaly also raised questions about whether Ukraine’s chosen representatives at the ongoing talks with the US - defence minister Rustem Umerov and 40 year-old deputy head of the presidential administration Pavlo Palysa - were qualified to deal with their Russian counterparts. Perhaps he, too is preparing for the Ukraine’s much-hyped upcoming electoral cycle.

Not unsurprisingly, ex-president Petro Poroshenko, whose confrontation with Zelensky has become ever more open of late, also stated on the 25th that he was unsure whether Zelensky’s delegation in the current talks with the US had the legal right to decide on Ukraine’s future:

[Ex-president Viktor Yuschenko’s] decree states that only three individuals in the country can make statements, conduct negotiations, or represent Ukraine without special directives: the President, the Prime Minister (within their competence), and the Minister of Foreign Affairs. All others require specific directives - but we've heard nothing about the approval of such directives, which should be official documents (though they could theoretically be classified). This decree remains in force today.

The delegation that traveled contains neither the Prime Minister, nor the Foreign Minister, nor Zelensky himself. By law, they must be operating under directives - and the public should rightfully know the boundaries of these authorization limits.


In general, Ukrainian liberal-nationalist discourse on the negotiations is overwhelmingly negative. Not only that, but it seems likely that Zelensky’s agreement to the US-Russian conditions will be used against him in any future elections. Which leads us to the most interesting topic of today’s article.

The Russians
Russian commentators have been much more explicit about this political future. I think it’s quite valuable to examine their logic. I’ve noticed quite a lot of ‘alternative media’ focused on Ukraine that have been whining about how ‘the stupid banana-fiend Putin is about to give up Russian interests to the US in a Minsk-3 deal’. Russian ultra-nationalists in the Malofeev orbit are also fond of this line, naturally.

But war is a continuation of politics by other means, not the goal of politics. Russia’s goal is not to take as much Ukrainian territory as possible, but to force the Ukrainian government to agree to its political demands - no NATO, no western military aid, a smaller army, democratization of its political space, and possibly repression of hardline nationalists. Military means are a tool to achieve that.

So what do pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians have to say on the matter? An interview was recently released with two Ukrainian politicians who have been living in Russia since 2014 - Nikolai Azarov, prime minister under Yanykovych, and Oleg Tsarev, MP from Yanukovych’s party.

(Paywall with free option.)

https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/ ... peculation

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Russia adheres to agreement with the US to suspend attacks on Ukraine's energy sector
March 26, 16:56

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The Kremlin reported that Russia is adhering to the agreement with the United States to suspend strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities for 30 days.

Putin's order to ban strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities within the framework of the moratorium is in effect and is being implemented by the Russian military (c) Peskov

Which, in fact, does not prevent strikes on other objects, which was clearly visible at night in the same Krivoy Rog. The tactics of massive strikes with "Geraniums" are justifying themselves.
Meanwhile. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the agreement, as expected, is not being implemented.

Despite Zelensky's public statement on the acceptance of the Russian-American agreements reached in Riyadh on March 24 to stop attacks on civilian energy facilities, the Kiev regime continued to strike the energy infrastructure of the Russian Federation.

On the night of March 26, off the coast of Crimea in the area of ​​Cape Tarkhankut, two Ukrainian attack UAVs were shot down by duty air defense systems, the object of the attack of which was the ground equipment of the Glebovskoye underground gas storage facility.

Also, on March 26 at about 4.45 Moscow time in the Bryansk region as a result of an attack by a Ukrainian UAV on a facility of a branch of PJSC Rosseti Centre - Bryanskenergo, a 10 kV high-voltage line was disconnected, as a result of which consumers in the Komarichsky district were left without power.

In addition, in the afternoon of March 25 in the Kursk region as a result of an attack by a Ukrainian UAV on a power facility of a branch of PJSC Rosseti Centre - Kurskenergo, a cascade shutdown of a number of substations occurred, as a result of which more than 4 thousand consumers in the Khomutovsky district were left without power.

Thus, the Kiev regime, continuing to damage the civilian energy infrastructure of Russia, is in fact doing everything to disrupt the Russian-American agreements reached on step-by-step measures to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.


This has never happened before, and here it is again. However, in the current realities, if necessary, it will not be difficult to resume strikes on energy facilities.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9747885.html

On the issue of lifting sanctions
March 27, 11:06

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On the issue of lifting sanctions

In all discussions about easing sanctions, the most important thing is that the Russian Federation is discussing this issue with the United States, but not with Europe. The main message is that these are your satellites, you decide this issue with them. Just like the communication on Ukraine is going on without Ukraine. You want to reach agreements, so impose them on the Kiev regime yourself. This is done demonstratively and pointedly. The hysterics in Europe and Kiev are due to the fact that they understand this state of affairs perfectly well and are trying to get a place at the negotiating table with threats and hysterics, which are actually going on without them.

First, the Russian Federation and the United States agree on something.
Then Russia invites the United States to fulfill its part of the deal, for which the United States needs to bend Europe and Ukraine. The United States has the necessary levers for this. Using the example of Ukraine, they have already shown everyone what the red lines of the cocaine Fuhrer are. The NATO Secretary General also changed his tune earlier. So, of course, Russia is unlikely to discuss lifting sanctions with the screaming Macron. If there is an agreement with the US that they will lift some of the sanctions, then it is Trump's problem how he will twist Europe's arms. And if he cannot or does not want to, then the agreements will not work. The coming weeks will show how serious the US assurances are about the desire to change relations.

So far, the Trump administration is limiting itself to statements about revising the sanctions policy. Europe verbally refuses, but continues to increase the purchase of Russian energy resources through third countries.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9749245.html

The Ministry of Digital Development has proposed introducing the title of veteran of military journalism
March 27, 1:04 PM

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The Ministry of Digital Development has proposed establishing the title of "Veteran of Military Journalism" for military correspondents working at the front.
The recent death of several war correspondents at the front has once again brought this issue to the fore.
From my point of view, such an award is needed to recognize those war correspondents who work directly at the front and risk their lives. So to speak, to separate the media rear fighting on the couch from those who work in the LBS and the frontline.

(Video at link.)

P.S. Report ( https://t.me/DKulko/954 ) by Channel One war correspondent Dmitry Kulko dedicated to the deceased Anna Prokofieva.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9749327.html

Google Translator

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NATO Sec.-Gen. Flip-Flops On Normalization With Russia

On March 15 I mocked NATO Secretary General Rutte for his flip-flop over Ukraine's accession to NATO.

Here is another flip flop of his:

NATO Chief Says Russia Relations Should Be Restored Post War - Bloomberg, Mar 14 2025

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said relations with Russia should eventually be normalized once the fighting ends in Ukraine, while stressing the need to keep pressure on Moscow to ensure progress in ceasefire negotiations.
“It’s normal if the war would have stopped for Europe somehow, step by step, and also for the US, step by step, to restore normal relations with Russia,” Rutte said in an interview on Bloomberg TV Friday.


Just twelve days later ...

'This is not the time to go it alone,' NATO's Rutte tells U.S. and Europe - Reuters, Mar 26, 2025

While welcoming Trump's push for peace in Ukraine, Rutte said there would be no normalisation of relations with Russia once the war had ended.
"This will take decades because there is a total lack of confidence. The threat is still there," he told reporters.


Could we please have other people but fools ruling over us?

Posted by b on March 26, 2025 at 19:01 UTC | Permalink

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Comments
The US side's greed has grown considerably.
Now it's not just about rare earths, but also about key state assets – nuclear power plants and ports.

The country, acquired by the Americans and Europeans in the post-Maidan years, must have a guaranteed sea route for the export of agricultural products, which means they need Odessa, which Putin will not give up under any circumstances. And the extraction of any resources requires energy, which can be generated by operating nuclear power plants. And for these purposes, the much more conveniently located southern Ukrainian nuclear power plant in the Nikolayev region is better suited than the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

The reallocation of assets in favor of the US means an inevitable conflict between Zelensky and the oligarchs loyal to him. This includes the "friend of all presidents" Rinat Akhmetov. After losing his metallurgy business, Akhmetov now makes his profits in the energy sector. There are no pure state assets in Ukraine – every asset is managed by someone from one oligarch clan or another. And if these assets have to be confiscated for a future deal with the US, the already large number of Zelensky's enemies will multiply even further.

And it is an old Ukrainian tradition that the overthrow of a president is preceded by an oligarchic uprising. This was the case with Yanukovych, when he began expropriating the assets of his old friends, and with Petro Poroshenko, who came into sharp confrontation with Igor Kolomoisky and several other business leaders. This will likely also affect Zelensky if the manger is no longer sufficient to maintain the unstable balance of power of the local elite.

The distribution of US budget and military support has already become more complicated. And with this deal, the local elite may even be deprived of their underlying assets.

Special military operation forces Kyiv to distort the term "Ukrainian"
The compromises surrounding peace and a ceasefire, the deal with the US, and the general decline in his poll ratings against the backdrop of the population's war-weariness drove Zelensky into an unbearable triangle, from which there is only one way out: to suppress the protests with force. If he fails to become a bloody military dictator, the only option is to flee, but where to? He wouldn't be allowed to enter the US, he would be caught sooner or later in Asia, and Great Britain, after some deliberation, would also refuse to accept him. Zelensky might only find his "Island of St. Helena" in the Baltics. But even there, the Russian wind blows, posing considerable risks for the country and its people in the event of asylum; no one would probably bet on Zelensky himself anymore. His former "friends" would be just a stone's throw away, and many a Ukrainian whose sons/brothers are lying in their graves would seize the opportunity.

Translated from Russian.

Posted by: berthold | Mar 26 2025 19:06 utc | 1

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/03/n ... l#comments

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Possible new Black Sea agreement likely to fail again

Lucas Leiroz

March 26, 2025

Kiev regime unwilling to cooperate on improving maritime security architecture in the region.

The recently initiated negotiations between the Putin and Trump administrations to de-escalate the conflict in the Black Sea and reform the regional maritime security architecture represent a pragmatic move by both leaders. While Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks stability to protect Russia’s economic and geopolitical interests, former U.S. President Donald Trump, with his well-known commercial interests in the region, sees an opportunity to ease tensions and restore crucial trade flows. However, despite the seemingly conciliatory intentions of both powers, the failure of this diplomatic effort is almost certain due to the Kiev regime’s insistence on perpetuating and escalating the conflict.

The Black Sea is a vital strategic route for Eurasian trade, especially for Russia, whose exports of goods such as grain and manufactured products rely on secure and operational maritime corridors. Putin, aware of the economic and military implications of continued escalation, has once again shown a willingness to negotiate a reduction in hostilities and establish clear rules for navigation and security in the region.

Similarly, Donald Trump, whose administration demonstrated a pragmatic approach toward Russia, has a direct interest in Black Sea stability. Trump sees the de-escalation of violence as an opportunity to strengthen trade ties, reduce logistical costs, and ensure safer commodity flows, directly benefiting the global supply chains.

For Trump, a ceasefire and a renewed security architecture would not only bring stability to the region but could also open space for new profitable trade agreements — even between American/Western and Russian companies. It is also important to emphasize that a Black Sea ceasefire agreement would further enhance Trump’s international image as a diplomatic leader and “peacemaker.”

Despite these converging interests, the biggest obstacle to peace is the Kiev regime, which continues to reject any possibility of de-escalation. Despite peace efforts led by Trump, the Ukrainian government remains uncompromising, fueled by bellicose rhetoric and the unconditional support of irresponsible European states. Rather than seeking peace, Kiev seems determined to intensify the war, driven by hopes that the conflict’s continuation will ensure the survival of the Maidan Junta.

The Ukrainian government sees any agreement as an unacceptable concession to Russia, especially regarding sovereignty over Crimea and the New Regions. Kiev, therefore, sees a possible ceasefire not as an opportunity to negotiate but as a threat to its alleged “strategic and self-defense objectives.” This stance not only undermines diplomatic efforts but also serves to perpetuate a cycle of violence and instability, hampering any effort toward fruitful diplomatic dialogue.

Kiev’s insistence on fueling military escalation is not merely a reactive stance to the negotiations—it is a calculated strategy to maintain Western financial and military support, even if only from European countries. Zelensky and his allies believe that by keeping tensions high, they can secure more weapons, additional sanctions against Russia, and possibly more direct Western military intervention. This approach makes any serious attempt to establish lasting peace impossible, no matter how willing Putin and Trump may be to compromise.

Proof of this scenario lies in the fact that Putin and Trump recently spoke by phone and agreed on a 30-day ceasefire on infrastructure targets. Even after Kiev accepted the terms, the regime violated the agreement just hours later—making it practically clear that it does not recognize the legitimacy of any Russian peace guarantee.

Since 2014, Kiev has repeatedly sabotaged all international agreements in which it has participated. The regime has been unable to properly implement the demands of the Minsk Agreements and caved under British pressure to continue the war in the summer of 2022—in addition to sabotaging all Russian-American bilateral negotiations.

Ultimately, the possible failure of the negotiations will be the inevitable consequence of Ukraine’s stance. As long as Kiev insists on terror as a strategy to achieve its goals, any diplomatic effort between Russia and the United States will be doomed from the start. Kiev’s rhetoric, driven by a desire for confrontation and Western political support, is incompatible with peace.

Black Sea stability is vital not only for Russia but for the security and economic prosperity of the entire region. However, as long as Kiev insists on perpetuating the conflict, Putin’s and Trump’s aspirations for lasting peace will remain nothing more than an “illusion”—a hope frustrated by Ukrainian belligerence and insistence on turning the Black Sea into yet another geopolitical battleground.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... ail-again/

(Re-)taking the north Black Sea coast and Odessa would render all that moot.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Fri Mar 28, 2025 11:54 am

European "diplomacy"
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/28/2025

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“If the most powerful nuclear bomb were to fall on Madrid, the entire interior of the M-30 would be burned by a ball of fire,” writes Sergio Fanjul this week in El País, referring to the Russian Tsar Bomb , the mother of all bombs . As if the alarm caused weren't enough, he adds that “the shock wave would extend much further, from Rivas to El Pardo, from Coslada to Boadilla.” Russia raised its tricolor flag over the Kremlin, removing the red banner with the hammer and sickle for the last time on December 25, 1991. However, in a nostalgia for simpler times, when a caricatured villain, created to cause the greatest possible fear, was enough to keep military budgets high, two articles were published in Spain this week under the title “What would you do in a preemptive attack by the USSR?” The main Soviet legacy in the West, which, unlike social rights or the vision of industry as the axis of economic growth, remains valid, is its use as an argument to justify rearmament that requires granting Russia capabilities it does not have and intentions [/img]it has never shown.

Just a few weeks after stating that relations with Moscow would gradually normalize once the war is over, Mark Rutte declared yesterday the exact opposite: there will be no return to the pre-2022 status quo , even once peace is concluded. Those who call on their populations to prepare survival kits to survive the first 72 hours of a military attack, cyberattack, or natural disaster posed smilingly in Paris yesterday, proclaiming that they are "building a robust peace for Ukraine and Europe." European countries and the NATO leadership have finally, reluctantly—following the United States and even Ukraine—turned to the discourse of peace, albeit with a sudden pacifism that contrasts with their proposals. From eternal war until Kiev achieved a position of strength to dictate the terms to Moscow, we have moved on to the idea of ​​armed peace and the continuation of a kind of cold war that justifies rearmament and maintains warlike rhetoric and sanctions against Russia.

“Sanctions are one of the few real tools the world has to push Russia toward serious negotiations. What else is there besides sanctions? If they are weakened and Russia violates the agreement, reinstating them will be an incredibly slow and difficult process. By then, many will simply stop believing that sanctions actually work,” stated Zelensky, whose latest crusade to prevent any progress toward normalizing the situation involves demanding increased sanctions against Russia, a position coordinated with European countries, which have seen economic warfare as a way to reinsert themselves in the negotiations, perhaps only to sabotage them, and regain some of their lost relevance. Despite the rhetoric of making war more expensive and using economic weapons to make it impossible for Moscow to continue the war, sanctions currently act as a deterrent to negotiations, as opposed to the incentive that Washington is aware of any mention of their possible relaxation. The renewed insistence on coercive economic measures by European countries and Ukraine also comes at just the right time.

"This is not the time to weaken sanctions against Russia, and what's needed are more sanctions to force them to the table and secure a ceasefire," said Starmer, who, along with Macron, was one of the leaders designated at yesterday's meeting to represent European countries in the negotiations, to which none of them had been invited. The "collective leadership" of the European Union, referred to last week by former Spanish Foreign Minister Arancha González Laya, is Emmanuel Macron, who, aware that his own strength is not enough, requires the assistance of Sir Keir Starmer and the special relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States, the masters of the negotiation process up to this point.

Following the three-day session of meetings in Saudi Arabia, the United States announced a series of intentions by the parties, including the protection of energy infrastructure and work toward restoring freedom of navigation in the Black Sea. This was widely interpreted by the Western media as the proclamation of a truce in both the naval and infrastructure arenas. Whether out of self-interest, incompetence, or naiveté, the press announced a partial ceasefire that did not exist, making it easier to blame Russia for its noncompliance at the time the Kremlin published its conditions for the beginning of this regime of silence. These included the lifting of sanctions against its national agricultural bank, Rosselkhozbank, and the reopening of the world market to its agricultural products and fertilizers, measures that the United States stated yesterday it was considering. This response from the White House, which has been open, at least verbally, to the possibility of reducing sanctions against Russia, is what has led to the recent verbal escalation by European countries, which wield much of the power in sanctions policy—trade between the United States and Russia is limited, hence the few pressure tools Washington has at its disposal to force Russia to accept unilateral measures demanded by Ukraine—and are willing to try to assert their position to keep the maximum pressure policy active.

Although there has never been an announcement of a ceasefire, and Marco Rubio's remarks about the review of Russian proposals are an implicit confirmation that the Black Sea truce is a project and not a reality, Zelensky has already stated that he will demand more weapons from the United States if Russia violates the ceasefire, which has not even been agreed upon yet. The objective is clear and twofold: to portray his opponent as an obstacle to peace and to activate the mechanism provided for in the Kellogg-Fleitz Plan if Moscow refuses to negotiate, which would result in increased military supplies to kyiv. The reality is less complex than presented by the European press, always looking for Russia's hidden agenda but completely oblivious to Ukraine's transparent actions.

Currently, the main message that the Zelensky government and its European allies want to convey is that kyiv wants peace and that it is Russia that must unconditionally accept the conditions presented to it, all of this without taking into account that negotiations are underway, to which both Ukraine and Russia are invited. With their inflexible stance, asserting that Ukraine must dictate each of the terms regardless of what is being negotiated in Saudi Arabia and declaring that the sanctions will not begin to be lifted until Russia "withdraws its troops from Ukraine"—that is, until the 1991 borders are restored, a pipe dream these days—European countries are placing themselves outside of any negotiation process, as an active party explicitly seeking to prevent the current diplomatic process from reaching a successful conclusion. If Donald Trump has not yet called for the presence of the United Kingdom or the EU, whom he expects to cover the post-war costs, it is not only because of the disdain with which the US president views Brussels, but fundamentally because he is hostile to the opening of a diplomatic process involving dialogue with Russia.

In addition to sanctions, European countries believe they have the military argument as a tool of pressure against Russia, a justification even more naive than relying on a policy of economic coercion, but one that could pose another obstacle to a peace agreement. Yesterday, Macron announced the dispatch of French and British soldiers to "prepare for deployment after the ceasefire." Despite the fact that even its proponent claims there is no consensus, the French president insists on the " coalition of the willing ," which had been called into question in media leaks this week. "When Ukraine was in a better situation, the idea of ​​sending troops was attractive. But now, with the situation on the ground and the US administration as it is, it's not very attractive," said a European official quoted by Reuters in an article in which he stated that several countries were seeking an alternative to the mission envisaged in the Starmer-Macron plan. However, the French president insists on a mission that would be located in strategic cities in Ukraine and would act as a deterrent.

In the past, Macron has asserted that the idea does not require Russian approval, even though any treaty would require the signature of Kyiv and Moscow. The Franco-British move would only be viable if the United States considered it to be acting in good faith and not a way to sabotage the chances of the diplomatic process initiated by Donald Trump achieving a ceasefire or even peace. The move risks suffering the political fate of the Franco-British adventure in the Suez Canal in 1956, when intervention by Washington and Moscow thwarted the plans of Paris, London, and their proxy, Israel on that occasion. But even more dangerous for European interests would be the possibility of a war de-escalation that does not occur on Ukrainian terms and that entails a normalization of Russia's economic relations with everyone except the European Union, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom, which would have lost an important argument to justify their social cuts in order to allocate more funding for rearmament against future Russian aggression.

Always insatiable, even after securing promises of an early Western military presence on his territory, Zelensky is demanding even more. “We want European soldiers to fight, we don't need peacekeepers. We're talking about a contingent at sea, on land, and in the air. It's an army,” he declared yesterday. Getting NATO countries involved in the war against Russia has always been one of the Ukrainian president's goals.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/28/diplomacia-europea/

Google Translator

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From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad

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Successes west of Sudzha
The situation on the border of the Kursk region

Russian troops continue to liberate the Kursk region , pushing enemy units into the adjacent territory. At the moment, only the border villages of Oleshnya and Gornal remain under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces .

- In the Sudzhansky district, fighters of the Russian Armed Forces drove the enemy out of the northern part of Guevo and took control of the area around the settlement.

- At the same time, information was received that Gogolevka was cleared of Ukrainian formations , but official statements about the liberation of the settlement have not yet been made public.

- At the same time, on one of the buildings of the Sudzha checkpoint , located just two kilometers to the west along the Sudzha - Yunakovka highway , today the Russian flag was raised by fighters of the 51st airborne regiment. To the south, fighting is already underway on the approaches to Oleshnya .

— To the northwest, fighting continues in the area of ​​the settlements of Basovka , Zhuravka and Vladimirovka in the Sumy region , where, according to some reports, there are also local successes of the Russian Armed Forces.

Nevertheless, in the Sumy region , the Ukrainian command has concentrated a large number of reserves that it can use for new attacks both in the Kursk and neighboring Belgorod regions , where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet achieved significant success.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation as of 27 March 2025

- In the Belgorod direction, units of the North force grouping defeated concentrations of manpower and equipment of two mechanized brigades, an assault regiment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a territorial defence brigade in the areas of the settlements of Prokhody, Ugroedy, Stepok and Mikhailovskoye in the Sumy region. The enemy's losses amounted to 80 servicemen, an armoured combat vehicle, a car and two artillery pieces.

- Units of the West force grouping improved the situation along the forward edge. They defeated formations of two mechanized, an airmobile brigades and an airborne assault regiment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Kondrashovka, Boguslavka, Novoplatonovka in the Kharkiv region and Yampol in the Donetsk People's Republic. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 210 servicemen, three pickup trucks and nine field artillery pieces, including a 155mm FH-70 howitzer made in the UK.

– Units of the Southern Group of Forces occupied more advantageous lines and positions. They inflicted losses on the manpower and equipment of five mechanized and airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, two territorial defense brigades and a National Guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Pleshcheyevka, Platonovka, Minkovka, Chasov Yar and Konstantinovka of the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy lost over 280 servicemen, a tank, five armored combat vehicles, including an M113 armored personnel carrier and a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle made in the USA. Eight vehicles and two ammunition depots were destroyed.

– Units of the Center Group of Forces improved their tactical position. Defeated the formations of the mechanized, assault brigades, unmanned systems brigade, assault regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, marine brigade and national guard brigade in the areas of the settlements of Mirolyubovka, Dimitrov, Krasnoarmeysk, Kotlino, Zverevo and Alekseyevka of the Donetsk People's Republic. The losses of the Ukrainian armed formations amounted to 465 servicemen, two combat armored vehicles, two cars and three field artillery guns.

- Units of the "East" group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense. Defeated the manpower and equipment of three mechanized, airmobile brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, territorial defense brigade and nationalist battalion "Aidar" in the areas of the settlements of Konstantinopol, Bogatyr, Komar and Otradnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy's losses amounted to 135 militants, three combat armored vehicles, a car and three field artillery guns.

– Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated formations of a mechanized, mountain assault brigade, two coastal defense brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and two territorial defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Novodanilovka, Lobkovoe, Stepnogorsk, Novopokrovka in the Zaporizhia region and Antonovka in the Kherson region. Up to 80 servicemen, five vehicles, an artillery piece, an electronic warfare station and an ammunition depot were destroyed.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

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Ukraine Has Opened a Hunt for Russian War Correspondents: Zakharova

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War correspondent Anna Prokofyeva (L) and other murdered Russian journalists, 2025. X/ @AlohaEvery1

March 26, 2025 Hour: 2:35 pm

In recent days, journalists Anna Prokofyeva, Alexander Fedorchak, Andrei Panov, and Alexander Sirkeli were murdered.
On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova asked multilateral organizations to react to the killing of war correspondents Anna Prokofyeva (Pervi Kanal), Alexander Fedorchak (Izvestia), Andrei Panov (Zvezda), and Alexander Sirkeli (Zvezda).

“We call for an immediate reaction to the killing of Anna Prokofyeva and other Russian media representatives from relevant international organizations, primarily from the UNESCO Director-General, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, and the OSCE Representative on Freedom of the Media,” she said.

“They are being hunted. These are our journalists, these are war correspondents… And the fact that they were wearing vests with the identification marks “Press” speaks once again to the fact that, of course, they have become a target,” the Russian diplomat stressed, as reported by Sputnik.

“These are not like other attacks previously carried out in relation to the contacts and negotiation process in Riyadh. These attacks are part of a planned effort to wipe out entire newsrooms using forceful methods applied under the mandates of previous Ukrainian presidents, who cleansed the information space through censorship and media shutdowns,” Zakharova specified, announcing that her country’s authorities would take all necessary actions to hold accountable those involved in these crimes.

This is not the first time Ukrainian troops have attacked reporters. In early 2025, the Russian Investigative Committee launched a criminal case over the death of Izvestia correspondent Alexander Martemyanov and the injuries suffered by four other journalists in the Donetsk region.

The most recent attacks occurred on March 24, when Izvestia correspondent Alexander Fedorchak, Zvezda cameraman Andrei Panov, and filming director Alexander Sirkeli were killed while traveling in a civilian vehicle that was struck by two projectiles fired from a Western-made HIMARS multiple rocket launcher system.

Meanwhile, Pervy Kanal correspondent Anna Prokofieva was killed when a recording crew stepped on a mine in the Belgorod region, near the Ukrainian border. This 35-year-old journalist, who studied at the Russian Peoples’ Friendship University and was fluent in Spanish, worked for the Spanish-language editorial team of the Rossiya Segodnya agency. Since 2023, she had been reporting from the Russian special military operation zone.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/ukraine- ... zakharova/

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Ukraine Rare Earths Deal Is Nonsense To Mining Experts
Posted on March 27, 2025 by Yves Smith

Yves here. We’ve explained repeatedly that the Ukraine “raw earths” deal is based on extreme exaggeration of the mineral deposits that the Ukraine government owns (or to which it retained mineral rights) and therefore could offer to the US. Aside from the obvious problem that those “rare earth” reserves are disproportionately in Russian-controlled or Russian-claimed territory, the best of the rest is very likely to be in private hands. Think anyone is going to get very far were there attempts to seize them? Ukraine oligarchs have muscle and would sabotage any efforts (they are capable focusing minds even more by killing work crew. Equipment would have value on the black market).

This post usefully catalogues many of the obstacles to this “deal” producing meaningful returns.

That raises the question of why Trump has been so fixated on it, since his persistent efforts to get Zelensky to sign something goes beyond what would be necessary to make PR points (Ukraine owes us bigly, the Biden Administration was a patsy for providing so much support with no strings attached, I am a Big Man looking out for US economic interests). I keep falling back on the idea that this is yet another Trump dominance exercise. Having insisted Ukraine will sign a “rare earths deal,” he’s going to persist until he gets something signed.

By Andrew Topf, a journalist with over two decades of experience in newspapers, trade publications and as a mining reporter. Originally published at OilPrice

The U.S. is eyeing Ukraine’s vast mineral wealth—including rare earths, lithium, and titanium—as a way to recoup war-related aid.
Experts warn that Ukraine’s rare earth deposits are overstated, outdated, and largely inaccessible.
Despite the risks and limited returns, a minerals-for-reconstruction deal appears to be moving forward.


The United States is pinning its hopes on reclaiming expenses incurred on Ukraine during its war with Russia by tapping Ukraine’s vast mineral potential including the development of rare earth element deposits.

The problem with this deal is two-fold: one, the deposits in question are mostly within Russian-occupied territory; and two, rare earths are difficult to find lumped together in economic quantities, and even harder to separate into rare earth oxides, that are used in everything from cell phones to electric vehicles to high-tech weaponry.

The Deal

First, the proposed deal. It outlines a plan to use future revenues from Ukraine’s rare earth and critical mineral reserves, as well as oil and gas.

According to Al Jazeera, a Reconstruction Investment Fund would be created, using revenues generated from Ukraine’s natural resources to reinvest in reconstruction following over three years of intense war.

Ukraine would contribute 50 percent of revenues from state-owned resources to the fund. It is unclear where the remaining half would come from and how much control the US would wield over the funds, says Al Jazeera, adding the US will support Ukraine’s efforts to secure lasting peace but offers no direct security guarantees.

How Much Aid Was Sent to Ukraine?

In that now-infamous meeting between Trump, Vice President Vance and Ukraine’s President Zelensky, Trump said the US has paid more than $350 billion in military aid/ support to Ukraine.

Zelensky disputed that figure — likely an unsubstantiated Trump guesstimate, which started at $500B — saying it was much lower.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which has tracked military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine since the war began, said the United States has donated $118 billion.

The US Department of Defense puts the number at $183 billion, which includes the cost of replenishing Ukraine’s defense stocks.

What Minerals Does Ukraine Have?

According to Ukraine’s Economy Ministry, the country holds deposits of 22 out of 34 minerals classified as critical by the European Union.

These critical minerals — whose reserves made up approximately 5 percent of the global supply as of 2022 — include precious and non-ferrous metals, ferroalloys and minerals such as titanium, zirconium, graphite and lithium.

Ukraine has an estimated 500,000 tonnes of lithium reserves, which are considered among Europe’s largest repositories of the battery metal.

As for the rare earths, according to The Independent, Ukraine has rare earth elements such as lanthanum and cerium, used in TVs and lighting; neodymium, used in wind turbines and EV batteries; and erbium and yttrium, whose applications range from nuclear power to lasers. EU-funded research also indicates Ukraine has reserves of high-priced scandium, but the data is classified.

These rare-earth resources are estimated to have a value of more than £12 trillion, and according to The Independent, Zelensky has been trying to develop them for years. He reportedly offered outside investors tax breaks and investment rights to help mine these minerals in 2021, but war broke out a year later.

More than 95 percent of industrially useful rare-earth metals are produced by China, creating supply chain and national security vulnerabilities in the US and elsewhere.

A recent graphic by Visual Capitalist says Ukraine claims to hold nearly $15 trillion worth of mineral resources, making it one of the most resource-rich nations in Europe. The country is home to the continent’s largest reserves of lithium, titanium, and uranium.

According to data from the Ukrainian geologic survey, Ukraine possesses 5% of the world’s mineral resources, including 23 of the 50 materials deemed critical by the U.S. government. These include:

Titanium– Used in aerospace and military applications
Graphite– Essential for battery production
Lithium– A key component of lithium-ion batteries
Beryllium– Vital for defense and telecommunications
Rare Earth Elements– Crucial for electronics, renewable energy, and defense industries

Image
Source: Visual Capitalist

Where are the deposits?

The Independent says:

A little over £6 trillion of Ukraine’s mineral resources, which is around 53 per cent of the country’s total, are contained in the four regions Mr Putin illegally annexed in September 2022, and of which his army occupies a considerable swathe.

That includes Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, though Kherson holds little value in terms of minerals.

The Crimean peninsula, illegally annexed and occupied by Mr Putin’s forces in 2014, also holds roughly £165bn worth of minerals.

The region of Dnipropetrovsk, which borders the largely occupied regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, and sits in the face of an advancing Russian army, contains an additional £2.8 trillion in mineral resources.

Russian difficulties with major military operations seem likely to preclude a serious attempt to take the region but mining operations in the area would be perilous with Moscow’s soldiers so close.

Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine had registered 20,000 mineral deposits, with 8,700 of them proven and encompassing 117 of the world’s 120 most used metals and minerals, according to the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development.

Other key points made by Al Jazeera:

The country has some of the world’s top recoverable coal, gas, iron, manganese, nickel, ore, titanium and uranium reserves.
Most of these minerals span Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporzhizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Korovohrad, Poltava and Kharkiv.
Russia, which controls approximately 20 percent of Ukraine, including large parts of Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporzhizhia, is sitting on about 40 percent of Ukraine’s metal resources.
Ukraine has said that a significant portion of its rare earth elements are in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.


However, despite all the hype about rare earths in Ukraine, the country doesn’t even make the top 12 countries ranked by the US Geological Survey as having the largest rare-earth mineral reserves. These countries are, in order, China, Brazil, India, Australia, Russia, Vietnam, the US, Greenland, Tanzania, South Africa, Canada and Thailand.

Are They Mineable?

According to IEEE Spectrum, Ukraine doesn’t have any mineable rare earths. The publication quotes Erik Jonsson, senior geologist with the Geological Survey of Sweden, who says there are four areas with substantial deposits of rare earth ores, and four slightly bigger deposits: Yastrubetske, Novopoltavske, Azovske and Mazurivske.

All but one are within the zone that the Russians currently control.

The other problem is identifying the size of the deposits. While numbers are available, there is no detailed outline of how they were arrived at, and they are believed to come from the Soviet era dating as far back as the 1960s.

“The rare-earth deposits don’t look that relevant,” Jonsson concludes. “I mean, I wouldn’t go for them.” Two of the deposits are dominated by a mineral called britholite, he notes, which is not desirable because it has not been processed for rare earths, which means that almost nothing exists in the way of process chemistry and equipment.

Jack Lifton, executive chairman of the Critical Minerals Institute, is more scathing in his criticism.

“If you want critical minerals, Ukraine ain’t the place to look for them. It’s a fantasy,” he says. “There’s no point to any of this. There’s some other agenda going on here. I can’t believe that anybody in Washington actually believes that it makes sense to get rare earths in Ukraine.”

“I doubt very much that President Trump cares about rare earths,” adds Lifton. “He’s being told they’re important. He’s operating as a pure businessman.”


There is ample truth in what Lifton is saying, if one knows anything about rare earths.

Mining rare earth elements is fairly straightforward but separating and extracting a single REE takes a great deal of time, effort and expertise.

According to one expert, the ore is first ground up using crushers and rotating grinding mills, magnetic separation and flotation gives the lowest-value sellable product in the rare earth supply chain: the concentrated ore. The milling equipment — crushers, grinding mills, flotation devices, and electrostatic separators – all have to be configured in a way that suits the type of ore being mined. No two ores respond the same way.

The next step is to chemically extract the mixed rare earths from the concentrated ore (cons) by chemical processing. The cons must undergo chemical treatment to allow further separation and upgrading of the REEs. This process, called cracking, includes techniques like roasting, salt or caustic fusion, high-temperature sulfidation, and acid leaching which allow the REEs within a concentrate to be dissolved. This separates the mixed rare earths from any other metals that may be present in the ore. The result will be still-mixed-together rare earths.

The major value in REE processing lies in the production of high-purity rare earth oxides (REOs) and metals but it isn’t easy. A REE refinery uses ion exchange and/or multi-stage solvent extraction technology to separate and purify the REEs. Solvent-extraction processes involve re-immersing processed ore into different chemical solutions to separate individual elements. The elements are so close to each other in terms of atomic weight that each of these processes involve multiple stages to complete the separation process. In some cases it requires several hundred tanks of different solutions to separate one rare earth element. HREEs are the hardest, most time consuming to separate.

The composition of REOs can also vary greatly. They can and often are designed to meet the specifications laid out by the end product users — a REO that suits one manufacturer’s needs may not suit another’s.

Less technically, The Independent says investors highlight a number of barriers to investment in Ukraine, such as inefficient, complex regulatory processes, difficulty accessing geological data, and obtaining land plots. They said such projects would take years to develop and require considerable up-front investment.

It’s worth noting that the United States currently has only one operating rare earths mine, Mountain Pass in California. Rare earths are mined and made into a concentrate before being shipped to China for further processing.

Developing a mine from discovery to production in places like the United States and Canada can take upwards of 20 years.

Is the Minerals Deal Still On?

It appears to be. After the disastrous meeting in the Oval Office, Zelensky wrote a letter to Trump saying that Ukraine is ready to sign the minerals deal — even though the US hasn’t offered Ukraine any security guarantees.

The current ceasefire deal looks to be heavily skewed toward Russia’s demands. Ukraine and Russia have agreed to a moratorium on attacking each other’s ships in the Black Sea. However, the Kremlin said it would only implement the ceasefire once the US delivers sanctions relief on Russian agricultural products and fertilizers, The Guardian pointed out Wednesday, noting that observers are questioning whether Russia has given anything to secure its first offer of sanctions relief since the beginning of the war. Ukraine has opposed any sanctions rollback on Russia.

The Guardian analysis said the Trump administration appears ready to make a deal with Russia that offers two prices to halt its war with Ukraine: political and military concessions from Ukraine as well as an escape from the international isolation that began after its full-scale invasion in 2022.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/03 ... perts.html

Russia-US Negotiations: Trump Criticism Follows the Bad Sign of the Lack of a Joint Statement After Last Round and the Iran Angle
Posted on March 26, 2025 by Yves Smith

The state of play in the Russia-US negotiations after their session early this week in Saudi Arabia failed to get much if any front-page attention. That was thanks to the furor over top US officials accidentally inviting Atlantic editor-in-chief Jeff Goldberg to participate in some Yemen-attack-planning on a Signal chat. The fallout has been revealing, including a Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth self-discrediting rant and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard refusing to answer if the texts were classified and stonewalling on releasing them to the Senate if not.

Back to the main event. Three teams traveled to Riyadh, a very senior Ukraine group, and mid-senior level representatives for the US and Russia. Multiple reports said, consistent with the plan agreed on the Putin-Trump phone call to hold bi-lateral talks, the US spent minimal time spent with the Ukraine delegation, only 40 minutes before the Russia-US discussions and 30 minutes after. That means the communication was one way.

By contrast, the US and Russian discussions took over 12 hours in one day. The two sides emerged, conveying the impression that they’d made progress, but said it was too late in the day for them to provide a joint statement as promised. They’d do it the next day. The White House put out its statement on the US-Russia talks.

No joint statement has been provided. This points to three possible bad developments, which are not mutually exclusive:

1. Russia and the US thought they had agreed an outline of terms for the supposed accomplishment of the pow-wow, that of a maritime ceasefire. But they amazingly found they had misunderstood each other on points key to one side (presumably the Russian side) and could not agree to a statement since there actually was an unresolved outtrade.

Frankly, this looks to have happened with the electricity infrastructure ceasefire. Russia got a readout published in record time. It described the agreement as covering “energy infrastructure”. The US readout instead said the ceasefire covered “energy and infrastructure” which is vastly more comprehensive. Ukraine immediately started complaining about Russia violating the pact. To clear up that loose end on March 25, the Kremlin published A list of energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine covered by the temporary moratorium on strikes against the energy system, as agreed upon by the Russian and American sides.1

As reported by Russian officials (more on that soon) , it was an improved version of the so-called grain deal, in which Russia would allow the passage of commercial vessels through the Black Sea for grain and fertilizer transport, along with a select waivers on sanctions so as to allow select Russian banks to receive payments for these products.

One of the big reasons Russia refused to renew this grain agreement was the failure to honor the financial components of the deal, which were as important as the transport part but just about entirely ignored in the Western press. A second part was Ukraine allegedly getting shipments of arms on commercial vessels, apparently due to Turkiye not doing adequate inspections of ships (a bug or a feature?). Ukraine even once sent drones along a protected shipment corridor, another agreement-breaching act.

So it’s not as if why the earlier deal failed should be a mystery if the US side was prepared….which seems not.

2. Russia and the US did have a deal. But US officials called the mothership in the morning, and were told to renege on certain elements. This is a non-uncommon bad faith trick in negotiating that I call double-brokering2 (there may be a term of art, if so, readers please pipe up).

3. Some sources claim Ukraine nixed the agreed joint text. This seems like a dog-ate-my-homework for some version of #1 or #2 above. But if true, this is yet another bad sign for negotiations. Russia and the US were supposed to truck bi-laterally. The tacit assumption was that the US could leash and collar Ukraine. But the Russian Ministry of Defense has been publicizing Ukraine violations of the energy infrastructure ceasefire. This confirms my thesis, that Ukraine has agency, and even though weak, still has possession of the vast majority of territorial Ukraine. Even though it will eventually be broken if it does not agree to a settlement, it’s clearly not about to do that soon (as in at least the next month or two).

So shorter: if Ukraine really could nix the joint statement, that vitiates the pretense that it is not a party to a settlement. It may be a very subordinate party that has to shut up and sit in the anteroom most of the time. But as of now, a deal can’t be concluded without Ukraine cooperation.


I had initially thought it was very clever for Russia to try to revive the grain deal. First, it’s much simpler to work from existing texts and renegotiate sections than start from scratch. Second, to a significant degree, this pact had been to benefit Africa, as in to get food and fertilizer there; Russia has intended to give it away to countries suffering from food shortages. So at least as of then, the aim was more to elevate Russia’s stature and less about profit (that may not be as true now given harvests and current market conditions). But third and perhaps most important, going over what happened with this grain scheme would allow Russia to give the US chapter, book and verse on Ukraine bad behavior, and enlist them in problem-solving to prevent its recurrence.

But now I wonder if the Americans are just too dumb and lazy. It seems all too possible that the American team arrived in Riyadh, not having even read the text of the earlier grain agreement, and some of what the Russians said went over their heads. It seems hard to fathom how the Russians could have gone into detail on the banking side of the agreement and have the Americans act as if they heard nothing of the kind. From CNN just a few hours ago:

US President Donald Trump said he believes Russia wants to end its war with Ukraine, but suggested Moscow could be “dragging their feet” after the Kremlin disputed accounts of agreements made with the US….

His comments came only hours after Russia said it would only implement a US-brokered deal to stop using force in the Black Sea once some of the sanctions imposed on its banks and exports over its invasion of Ukraine are lifted.

Following days of separate negotiations with Ukrainian and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia, the White House said on Tuesday that the two sides had agreed “to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.”

But while Zelensky confirmed in a news conference that Ukraine had agreed to stop using military force in the Black Sea, the Kremlin released its own statement on the talks, which included far-reaching conditions for signing up to the partial truce.

Those included lifting sanctions on its agricultural bank and other financial institutions and companies involved in exporting food and their re-connection to the SWIFT international payments system.

The US statements made no mention of the sanctions being lifted as a precondition to the ceasefire.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday afternoon, Trump said his administration was looking at Russia’s conditions. “We’re thinking about all of them right now. There are five or six conditions. We are looking at all of them,” he said.

The White House said that Russia and Ukraine also agreed to implement a previously announced pause on attacks against energy infrastructure.


If we are to take the Trump remarks at face value (always an iffy proposition), this looks like double-brokering: the Russian side was authorized to commit within certain parameters, while the US side was either not authorized to, or had undisclosed limits and went beyond them without informing the Russian side. The White House statement is at the 50,000 foot level and only mentions the US making an effort to remove financial impediments, not actually do so:

The United States will help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.

Given that no less than Putin had made a stink about the failure of the Western side to allow the agricultural bank to be reconnected to SWIFT, it is very hard to imagine that the Russian were unclear in Riyadh about their requirements on this point.

In fact, the Russian version of what was agreed in Riyadh, posted on the Kremlin site, lists the conditions that Trump alludes to. These items are set forth with such specificity as to make it hard to think Russia made them up after the fact. Russia believes it made clear the deal does not come into effect until these items have all been implemented. So the US can want what it wants or believe what it wants to believe all day, but there will be no “maritime ceasefire” otherwise.

However, the Russians must also have known that their requirements could not be delivered by the US. It’s not just a matter of Ukraine opposition. We’ve also said that the seemingly weak Europeans have agency. They made clear they won’t authorize the sanctions relief needed to make the “grain deal,” now the maritime ceasefire, go forward. From the Financial Times:

Brussels has rejected Russia’s demand to lift EU restrictions on a key agricultural bank as part of a partial ceasefire deal, saying its sanctions regime will stay in place until the “unconditional withdrawal” of Moscow’s troops from Ukraine.

In other words, after all the hype about a marine ceasefire, there is none. The US is still thinking about it. And Trump has the temerity to blame Russia for delay.

On top of that, there are reasons to think the US got cute. Recall after the Putin-Trump call, the Kremlin was out double-fast with its readout, at least in part to reassure Russians worried about a Putin sellout to the US. Here, the Russians held back, perhaps because they thought the joint statement would be published. Instead, the US punted on that and got its spin out first.

Now consider an overarching issue: the unseemly US hurry to get a “ceasefire” done, as if that were somehow tantamount to a cessation of hostilities. Russian has sensibly and consistently said no to a ceasefire before the underlying causes of the war are addressed. Putin has been playing faux-amenable to Trump trying to do that out of order by describing in detail how extensive the protections of Russian interests would have to be for a naked ceasefire to be acceptable. As I said earlier, the Russians could be in Paris by the time that all was negotiated and put in place.

In another not-positive sign for how US-Russia relations are going, Russia felt the need to make a forceful statement about Trump trying to take an interest in Russian assets behind Russia’s back. First, from the Washington Post on March 20:

President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed “American ownership” of nuclear power plants in Ukraine in a phone call on Wednesday, the White House said. Zelensky offered a somewhat different account Thursday: He said that only one nuclear power plant had been discussed — the sprawling Zaporizhzhia plant, which is occupied by Russian forces — and that U.S. ownership was not on the table.

Andrei Martyanov provided a translation of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ smackdown yesterday:

In connection with the speculations circulated in the media on the possible transfer of the Zaporizhzhya NPP (ZNPP) to Ukraine or the establishment of some kind of “joint control” over the station with Ukraine, the United States or representatives of international organizations, we would like to clarify the following. ZNPP is a Russian nuclear facility. Following the referendums held at the end of September 2022, the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions became part of the Russian Federation as full-fledged subjects. On October 5, 2022, Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 711 “On the specifics of legal regulation in the field of atomic energy use in the territory of the Zaporizhzhya region” was signed, securing the status of ZNPP as a facility under Russian jurisdiction. The return of the station to the Russian nuclear industry is a long-standing fact that the international community can only acknowledge.

The transfer of ZNPP itself or control over it to Ukraine or any other country is impossible. All the station’s employees are citizens of the Russian Federation, their lives cannot be played with, especially considering the atrocities that Ukrainians have committed and continue to commit on the territory of our country. Joint operation of the Zaporizhzhya NPP with any state is also unacceptable. There are no such precedents in world practice. In this case, for example, it is impossible to properly ensure nuclear and physical nuclear safety, or regulate issues of civil liability for nuclear damage. An important aspect is that close cooperation between NATO intelligence services with Ukraine, which have impressive sabotage potential, makes it impossible to even temporarily admit representatives of these states to the Zaporizhzhya NPP.

The idea of ​​any international organizations participating in the operation of the station also seems absurd, since neither the mandate nor the competence of any of them allows them to participate in the operation of nuclear facilities. In accordance with international law, including key specialized conventions, the states themselves bear the primary responsibility for ensuring nuclear and physical nuclear safety on their territory. In the case of ZNPP, it is the Russian Federation, and nothing else.


Ouch.

Recall that we had pointed out that the Trump “raw earth” scheme, which later had ports and power plants thrown in, would complicate any settlement, since the US would be laying claims to assets in Russian hands. Putin politely drew a line, saying the US could participate in the development of any mineral deposits (as in provide services on a contract basis), but Russia owned the four oblasts it deems to be part of Russia. Russia has now gone into “What about ‘no’ don’t you understand?” mode.

After being so deluded as to say he could end the war in 24 hours, Trump has fallen back, with his latest target date April 20. That is now clearly na ga happen. In keeping, there is no date for a Trump-Putin summit either.

Trump foolishly ignored the advice of Steve Bannon, which would have been to declare Ukraine to have been Biden’s war, send any remaining authorized cash and arms, and wash his hands of it. The longer this goes on, the more he owns it. He can deal more harshly with Ukraine intransigence by cutting off intel (a penalty box of a week, with longer suspensions for successive infractions?). Yet despite Trump having the fun of beating Zelensky up in the Oval Office, he has still not been brought to heel.

So what is the reason for the urgency about a “deal” with Russia, when Trump could put the US participation in Project Ukraine out of its misery in very short order? Some like Alexander Mercouris contend that it’s because he intuits Ukraine will collapse soon. Trump would lose any smidge of leverage and also have left himself open to accusations of “losing” Ukraine. If he had followed the Bannon plan, he would have greatly reduced that attack surface.

My guess is the urgency has to do with Iran. Larry Wilkerson, in a new interview with Nima of Dialogue Works, argued that (54:45) that the US is prodding Israel to keep up aggression in Syria despite already being over extended. Both Wilkerson in this clip and Chas Freeman in a new Judge Napolitano talk said that if the Israel were to attack Iran, which would clearly have to have US backing, that Russia would support Iran. From Judge Napolitano at 20:50:

Napolitano: Would an American military support of an Israeli attack on Tehran impair American-Russian relationships?

Freeman It would affect them very negatively because it would appear to demonstrate that we are prepared to bully and use force as a substitute for diplomacy, and that would discredit the diplomacy….I think this would really bring that to a point of no return.


Recall that the US has been laboring under the delusion that Russia would help the US when it is still supporting Ukraine. Bloomberg ran a bizarre article in early March that depicted Russia as willing to “do everything in its power”

Recall that Trump then said he sent a letter to the Supreme Leader, which oddly took a very long time to arrive and was rejected forcefully. For Trump to send a letter means both a lack of mediation and haste from the US side. From a Reuters report about a week after the Bloomberg story ran:

The Kremlin, asked on Monday if Russia had held consultations with Iran before or after Tehran responded to a letter from U.S. President Donald Trump urging the country to negotiate a nuclear deal, said Iran formulates its own policy positions.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday that Tehran would not be bullied into negotiations, a day after Trump said he had sent a letter urging Iran to engage in talks on a new nuclear deal.


Before the US resumed its attacks on the Houthis, Marco Rubio called Lavrov and depicted Russia as having “consented”. Lavrov cleared his throat and disputed that characterization, making it clear Lavrov told Rubio the US should negotiate and not use force (I imagine Russia Foreign Ministry also had to make lots of calls to the strong Palestine supporters among its allies to reassure them that no way, no how did Russia support shelling Yemen).

Rumor has it that Trump demanded Iran Do Something in two months. Iran is clearly not going to Do Anything. Many many geopolitical commentators believe that the US is serious about wanting to commence a war against Iran in the near future.

But perhaps not. One way this war might not happen soon, which could mean “not at all”, is the Russia negotiations dragging out, which is certain. Russia will not be rushed and will need the US to demonstrate it can leash and collar Ukraine on key issues. It can’t do that ex a regime change, and it can’t displace the Banderites (they’d find that harder than the Russians would) even if it gets rid of Zelensky.

So a good guess for the rush to get a resolution in Ukraine is the barmy US assumption is that if that deal is done, Russia will be so happy with its better status with the US that it won’t back Iran.

I suspect many readers share my view that that belief is all wet.

But if the Trumpies believe that, it will stay their hand until a deal over Ukraine is done and dusted before they take on Iran.

One can only hope…

_____

1 It is not clear if this is merely clarification of what was agreed in on the Trump-Putin call, or the publication of disambiguation that took place in the Riyadh talks at the start of this week.

2Savvy negotiators NEVER let a principal negotiate with a broker. The reason is that anything the principal agrees to can be treated as a commitment, while anything the broker agrees to is subject to the assent of his principal. So a smart broker will accept the principal’s position as a starting point and try to ratchet further from that, based on some additional concern his principal has. A less obvious version of that may have been operative here, that Russian side likely had permission to deal within certain set parameters, while the US side did not or otherwise had much more limited authority, and whether out of bad faith or cavalierness, exceeded it.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/03 ... angle.html

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Trump's Rewritten 'Deal' With Ukraine Is Imposed Indentured Servitude

The Trump administration wants to press Ukraine into infinite indentured servitude for payments and weapons previously delivered by the Biden administration with no conditions attached to them.

Hedge fund mogul and U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent has (re-)written the 'mineral deal':

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday Ukraine may sign an economic deal next week ...
"We have passed along a completed document for the economic partnership (that) is currently being reviewed by Ukrainians, and we hope to go to full discussions and perhaps even get signatures next week," Bessent said.
Trump said on Monday he expects a U.S.-Ukraine revenue-sharing agreement on Ukrainian critical minerals to be signed soon.


The (former) Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski acknowledged the arrival of the agreement (machine translation):

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the United States offered Ukraine a new version of the agreement on minerals . During the press conference , he stressed that the issue of Ukrainian nuclear power plants is not in it.
"This is a big full deal for the American side, from the steps that were taken earlier. A framework agreement, you remember, and after the framework agreement, the full agreement is developed. Now the American side has offered our side a big deal at once, their vision," Zelensky said.


The deal, see below, is anything but an 'offer'.

Zelenski should have signed the earlier 'framework agreement'. It would have allowed to later stall on the implementation. Now he will be pressed to sign on to the details.

The new 'big deal at once' is a 'horror' for Ukraine (machine translation):

A new version of the agreement on minerals between Ukraine and the United States, in which, as reported by ZN.UA, now the American side wants control not only over the extraction of rare earth metals, but all the minerals of Ukraine and the infrastructure associated with their extraction, provides for unlimited US control over Ukrainian resursans and with the right of veto of the Americans on their extraction by Ukraine. At the same time, the United States does not offer any security guarantees, and such a monopoly should be a "payment" for the already provided US assistance to Ukraine, said Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a People's Deputy of Ukraine.
"I received this document from our officials yesterday.This is not the final document. And I hope the Ukrainian side will demand and achieve significant changes to it. But the text that I saw is straight horror. All 18 sections ... this is no longer a framework memorandum of intent (which was before the scandalous meeting in the Oval Office). This is a very big and very clear deal. And it is not in our direction," he wrote in his Telegram.


The legal text has 60(!) pages. Its main points, according to Zheleznyak, are these (machine translation):

The Fund is managed by five people, three of whom are from the United States and will have full veto power;
We are talking about all minerals, including oil, gas and undeveloped deposits throughout Ukraine;
we are talking about mining by both public and private campaigns;
the Fund's money will be immediately converted into foreign currency and withdrawn abroad. If suddenly, for some reason, something did not reach the Ukrainian side, Ukraine pays extra;
US contribution - assistance already provided to us from 2022 (according to the Kiel Institute, US assistance to Ukraine in 2022-2024 is estimated at $ 119.7 billion)
The United States can choose to make a profit. At the same time, they will receive "royalties" from the Fund first (and then Ukraine) +4%.
The agreement will be valid indefinitely
Changes to the agreement or its completion are only possible with the permission of the United States;
US priority right to all new infrastructure projects and veto the sale of resources to other countries.


This 'deal' is pure extortion and robbery. It would bind Ukraine indefinitely. It would also discourage any investment in any natural deposits in Ukraine. There is no chance that any such deal will be ratified by the Ukrainian parliament.

Why wonders then: Why does the Trump administration even bother?

Posted by b on March 27, 2025 at 15:35 UTC | Permalink

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/03/t ... .html#more

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Ukrainian offal
March 27, 19:07

Image

According to statements by members of the Verkhovna Rada, the agreement on the transfer of Ukrainian mineral resources to the United States:

1. Does not contain security guarantees.
2. Concerns an extended list of Ukrainian resources, including rare earths, oil and gas.
3. Of the 5 people in the fund's management, 3 are US citizens.
4. American representatives have veto power.
5. The treaty is effectively indefinite. It cannot be changed without US permission.
6. The US has the right of first night to any infrastructure projects on Ukrainian territory.
7. The US can block the sale of any Ukrainian resources to any other country.

In fact, the US gets everything it wants. As they say, it takes everything, lock, stock and barrel.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9750155.html

The Sudzha checkpoint has been liberated
March 27, 17:00

Image

Russian paratroopers reached the border of Kursk and Sumy regions in the area of ​​the Sudzha checkpoint. The checkpoint itself has also been liberated.

(Video at link.)

Image

All that remains in Kursk Oblast is to clean up the Guevo area and liberate Gornal and Oleshnya. After that, we can begin occupying the territory of Sumy Oblast.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9750012.html

The Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed the GIS "Sudzha"
March 28, 11:51

Image

The Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed the Sudzha GIS.

Over the past 24 hours, the Kiev regime continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure using various types of UAVs, as well as the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system.

(Video at link.)

On March 28, at about 10:20, the Kiev regime launched a double strike, using, according to preliminary information, HIMARS rockets at the Sudzha gas metering station, which resulted in a major fire and the energy facility was virtually destroyed.

Also, on the morning of March 28, Russian air defense systems in the Saratov region shot down and intercepted 19 Ukrainian attack UAVs of the fixed-wing type, the target of which was the infrastructure of the Saratov Oil Refinery.

In addition, on March 27 in the Belgorod region at about 15:00, as a result of targeted artillery shelling of the facility of the branch of PJSC Rosseti Center - Belgorodenergo, there was a power outage for consumers in the Shebekinsky district.

Thus, all publicly stated commitments of the Kiev regime to allegedly stop deliberate attacks on Russian civilian energy infrastructure are yet another ploy by Zelensky to prevent the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces front and restore its military potential with the help of European "allies".

(c) RF Ministry of Defense

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/9751124.html

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sat Mar 29, 2025 11:52 am

The United States and its interests: the plunder of Ukraine
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/29/2025

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"It is necessary to continue working with the United States to stop the conflict and achieve a peace that guarantees Ukraine's sovereignty and security," said Giorgia Meloni during her participation in the summit held on Thursday in Paris. The Italian Prime Minister is trying to maintain a balance in a position that is neither one of staunchly defending Trump's actions following the Hungarian example, nor of absolute rejection of the dialogue-based path to a resolution advocated by other European countries, which insist that Russia must unconditionally accept Macron and Starmer's Anglo-French plan, which lacks even the consensus of European countries. The Italian case, with an acceptable far-right government , favorable to NATO and aid to Ukraine, enters into murky waters by trying to combine, in a coherent stance, the idea of ​​fighting Russia with submission to Trumpism, which insists on a diplomatic process leading to an agreement, impossible if London and Paris continue to insist on sending, without prior agreement with Moscow, an armed mission to Ukraine. However, any contradiction is minimal compared to Ukraine's and its Western supporters' insistence on the idea of ​​sovereignty and the current situation.

In the days leading up to the umpteenth summit in support of Ukraine, in an interview with Le Figaro , the Ukrainian president insisted on the need for security guarantees for the future and specifically mentioned the demand for the return to Kiev of the nearly $300 billion in public and private Russian assets seized since February 2022 to finance the vast army of the fully militarized Ukraine of the future. “For us, victory today is about saving our nation, our independence. It's about having the freedom not to belong to Russia or its way of seeing the world,” Zelensky added, insisting on the idea of ​​sovereignty and independence, which are fundamental when presenting the current conflict as a war of national liberation, which ignores the fact that a portion of the population chose to defend the Russian cause many years ago. But neither this seemingly minor detail nor the fact that the nation's integrity has ever been in danger—at least not since the Russian convoys were stopped in the trenches on the way to kyiv, when it became clear that Russia was not going to win the war militarily—have diminished the intention to use the arguments of the 20th-century anti-colonial struggles as one of the axes of the Ukrainian discourse.

That rhetoric has taken on new life in the wake of what is being seen as double imperialism , a Trump-Putin pincer movement to carve up Ukraine in the same way that European powers carved up Africa from the offices of the Congress of Vienna. The balance of power and the certainty of European countries and the Biden administration that any war was better than a negotiated peace—including the one in Minsk, which would not have caused Ukraine to lose more territory than Crimea, or the one in Istanbul, in which the loss of territory would have been negotiable and limited to Donbass—have led to the current scenario, in which the struggle is between peace through the force of European countries and the realism of the Trump administration, which not only seeks an end to the conflict, but also its own profit.

In the face of the high-sounding statements of his first weeks in office, Donald Trump has stopped insisting on providing figures on the value of the assistance that the United States and European countries have provided to Ukraine over the past three years. Providing figures that could easily be proven false has resulted in nothing but reproaches from his allies, to which the US president could not respond with arguments, but the White House has not abandoned its attacking stance. The minerals agreement was shelved after the catastrophic Oval Office meeting on February 28, when Zelensky was publicly humiliated and encouraged to leave the US presidential residence without any signatures being issued. Ukraine had managed to negotiate a less aggressive version of the first draft that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had presented to the Ukrainian president days earlier in Kyiv, and which Zelensky had refused to sign at the time.

That document, significantly watered down after tough meetings with the United States, estimated the US$500 billion Washington was seeking, with Ukraine expected to hand over half of the revenue from all current and future mineral extractions. The agreement, which the President's Office believed it had secured and was ready to sign during its visit to the United States, included a joint fund whose details were still to be negotiated and a phrase that led Zelensky to hope that the revenue Ukraine was forgoing would buy the security guarantees kyiv continues to seek. The document stated that the United States supports the pursuit of security guarantees for Ukraine, a formulation that can hardly be interpreted as a promise for the future.

Zelensky's attempt to renegotiate that part of the agreement and modify the terms that the White House considered final derailed the Oval Office meeting in front of the entire press, further deepening Donald Trump's poor opinion of the Ukrainian president, who failed to provide his campaign with the compromising material on Joe and Hunter Biden that they had demanded. Since then, one of the main objectives of Zelensky and his European allies has been to regain Donald Trump's favor, partly by shifting their rhetoric to the need for peace and blaming Russia for the lack of progress—although the only progress that has occurred since 2022 is taking place now and is the result of negotiations between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine—and also by praising American peace efforts. "I think we are back on the right track," Andriy Ermak, Zelensky's right-hand man, said this week, adding that he wanted to address his allies directly. "Dear American friends, you understand that we are partners. That was our goal."

On Thursday, Ukrainian MP Zhelezniak published the latest draft of the Ukraine mineral extraction agreement, which Scott Bessent said could be signed as early as next week. Since then, several Western and Ukrainian media outlets have obtained the text, which has brought Ukrainska Pravda , Bloomberg , Carl Bildt , and Dmitry Medvedev together, who has claimed that Zelensky could suffer the fate of Benito Mussolini if ​​he signs the deal.

“Convinced of Ukraine’s weakness, despising President Zelensky and angered by the billions of dollars in aid provided to Kyiv by the Joe Biden administration, Trump set about returning everything and more,” writes The Times , which understands that the new version of the minerals deal seeks to recoup the investment, estimated at $100 billion presented as a loan, and to obtain even more profit. It crosses almost all the previously agreed red lines; it deprives Ukraine of part of its sovereignty; it contradicts its future EU membership; and it also forces Ukraine to return all the US aid of recent years, which Ukraine considered gratuitous. This latter approach opens a Pandora's box and will inevitably trigger an avalanche of claims from other states as well,” adds Ukrainska Pravda . “It's a document of expropriation,” says an Atlantic Council expert quoted by The Telegraph . “There are no guarantees, no defense clauses, and the United States is not providing anything,” he concludes, focusing not on the plunder involved, but on the lack of commitment to future security guarantees. Dependent on its allies to maintain the state, meet commitments to pay salaries and pensions, and allow the army to continue fighting, little remains of Ukraine's sovereignty, and it is willing to cede even more independence in exchange for a US military presence on its territory.

For the moment, the Ukrainian government's reaction to the publication of the draft is limited to not acknowledging any debt—US financing has never been provided in the form of a loan—and has not addressed the content of an agreement that a sovereign state could not afford to sign. The draft refers to a joint fund in which three of the five members would be American and would have veto power. The United States claims to have already provided $100 billion, so the revenue is to come solely from Ukraine for its future extractions and profits from the extraction of gas, oil, minerals, and other economic aspects that remain unclear. The agreement is a full-fledged economic colonization of Ukraine, which also requires Kyiv to compensate for any delays. The United States, which would have the right of first refusal on each future extraction and would be guaranteed that none of Ukraine's resources could be sold to its rivals, would also reap the underlying benefits. Only once the 4% threshold is exceeded would Kyiv be able to collect royalties . According to Trymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics, Ukraine would forgo “all revenues from public and private resources throughout the territory, including the occupied territory. Private companies like DTEK [owned by Rinat Akhmetov] are not exempt.”

It is possible that, as happened in February, Ukraine may be able to negotiate a reduction in the draconian conditions, even worse than those that shocked the media at the time and were compared to those imposed by the Allies against Germany in the Treaty of Versailles or against Germany and Japan after their surrender in World War II. However, the return to an agreement that once again becomes colonial, which would deprive Ukraine of any semblance of economic sovereignty, clearly demonstrates Donald Trump's intention to force kyiv to subordinate the country to Washington's will, both now and in the future.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/29/estad ... e-ucrania/

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******

From Cassad's telegram account:

Colonelcassad
5:32
A captured Ukrainian soldier was found with a questionnaire from a Canadian clinic: the serviceman gave "voluntary consent" to an organ transplant

The fate of prisoner of war Chemer A.V. (born in 1984) from the 41st mechanized brigade was no different from hundreds of thousands of other forcibly mobilized people.

Caught by the TCC, at first he was lucky - he was sent to service electronic warfare stations located on cell phone towers in the Sumy region, then he was transferred to the infantry and sent to die in the Sudzhan borderland.

3:33 This is where the most interesting part begins. Before sending them to their positions, Chemer's commander handed out questionnaires from a "French medical clinic" to the servicemen, saying that this was a medical insurance policy that would allow them to receive treatment in the best healthcare institutions.

No one was bothered by the fact that it was written in black and white at the bottom that the clinic was located in Canada, no one even read it carefully, everyone filled it out as dictated and signed it.

The commander took the questionnaires of all Chemer's fellow soldiers, but the prisoner of war himself did not have time to fill it out because of the shelling that had begun. Counting on qualified medical care, the Ukrainian soldier carried this "medical policy" with him everywhere. After his surrender, our servicemen found it...

Imagine the surprise of the Ukrainian soldier when it turned out that this was voluntary consent for the transplantation of his organs in a medical clinic in Ontario (Canada)!

At the moment, the version suggests itself that in Canada, under the guise of providing medical care, wounded Ukrainian soldiers are used as donors for the numerous wealthy clients of this clinic.

***

Colonelcassad
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation from March 22 to 28, 2025.

From March 22 to 28, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out seven group strikes with high-precision weapons and attack unmanned aerial vehicles, which damaged the infrastructure of military airfields, the training center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, command posts, assembly shops, storage and training sites for operators of attack unmanned aerial vehicles, ammunition depots, as well as temporary deployment sites of nationalists and Ukrainian armed formations.

- During the week, units of the North group of forces continued to destroy formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region. As a result of decisive actions, the village of Gogolevka was liberated.

- In the Kharkov and Belgorod directions, units of four mechanized brigades, an unmanned systems brigade, an assault regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and three territorial defense brigades were defeated. Over the past week, in the area of ​​responsibility of the North group of forces, the enemy's losses amounted to 2,190 servicemen, six tanks, 43 combat armored vehicles and 103 cars. 45 field artillery pieces and five electronic warfare stations were destroyed.

- Units of the West group of forces, as a result of active and decisive actions, liberated the settlements of Mirnoye in the Donetsk People's Republic and Krasnoye Pervoye in the Kharkov region. The enemy lost over 1,640 servicemen, three tanks, 11 combat armored vehicles, including three M113 armored personnel carriers and three US-made HMMWV armored cars. 26 cars, 29 field artillery pieces, including seven Western-made, five electronic warfare stations and 10 field ammunition depots were destroyed.

- Units of the South group of forces improved their tactical situation. Over the past week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 2,035 servicemen, four tanks, and 22 armored combat vehicles, including three M113 armored personnel carriers and a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle made in the United States. 39 vehicles, 15 field artillery pieces, including three made by NATO countries, five electronic warfare stations, 10 field ammunition depots, and two fuel depots have been destroyed.

- As a result of decisive actions by units of the Center group of forces, the settlement of Sribne in the Donetsk People's Republic has been liberated. The losses of the Ukrainian armed forces amounted to over 3,355 servicemen, four tanks, 26 armored combat vehicles, including four M113 armored personnel carriers made in the United States and two VAB armored personnel carriers made in France. 54 vehicles and 21 artillery pieces, including three made in the West, have been destroyed.

- Units of the Vostok group of forces continued to advance deep into the enemy's defenses. They defeated the formations of four mechanized, mountain assault, ranger, airmobile brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a marine brigade, three territorial defense brigades and the Aidar nationalist battalion. The enemy lost over 1,015 servicemen, a tank, 10 armored combat vehicles, 28 cars and 19 field artillery pieces, including six of Western manufacture. Seven ammunition and materiel depots were destroyed.

- Units of the Dnepr group of forces, as a result of active operations, liberated the settlement of Malye Shcherbaky in the Zaporizhia region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 545 servicemen, two tanks, two US-made M113 armored personnel carriers, 38 cars and 11 field artillery pieces. Four electronic warfare stations and ten ammunition depots were destroyed.

- Over the past week, air defense systems have shot down two MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, 27 JDAM guided aerial bombs and 20 HIMARS multiple launch rockets from the US-made HIMARS system, as well as 1,160 aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles.

https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin

Google Translator

******

Ukraine: A Regime Whose Days Are Numbered
Posted by Internationalist 360° on March 27, 2025
Dmitri Kovalevich

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Aware of all the changes in public mood, the movements of the Ukrainian leadership in the turbulent times ahead will be chaotic and unpredictable, like the thrashings of a cornered rat that has already played its role.

Prospects for a ceasefire and a lasting peace in Ukraine remain unclear in the second half of March 2025. The Zelensky regime is still stubbornly resisting any talk of either. On the contrary, the Kiev regime, headed by Volodomyr Zelensky, is intensifying its military conscription. Those who might previously have had legal grounds for deferring service are finding themselves kidnapped by military recruiters in an increasingly losing cause. Kiev’s Western sponsors are scrambling to delay their looming political and military defeat. They are praying for a miracle to rescue them from a defeat of historic import.

Legalization of lawlessness

In late March, the Supreme Court of Ukraine issued a paradoxical legal decision, ruling that an illegal act of conscription does not release its victim from compulsory military service. “Mobilization [conscription] is an irreversible process,” the Ukrainian court ruled. The case involves a man considered to be ‘recruited’ to military service even though he had not yet passed a medical examination.

“The judges confirmed in their decision of March 17 that there were indeed violations by the territorial recruitment center, but they refused a dismissal of the conscript from service,” explains the Focus.ua news outlet.

By the same logic, a person thrown illegally into prison would not necessarily win release. The mere fact that an act of conscription was illegal (for example, when a recruit does not pass a medical examination or when his or her age is outside the age of military service) does not imply a release from detention and waiving of military service. The decision turns upside down the very system of justice in Ukraine, turning illegal actions magically into legal ones.

As a result of the court decision, residents of the city and region of Kharkiv are hitting back against military recruiters, according to Viktoriya Kolesnik-Lavinskaya, the ombudswoman for human rights and children’s rights for the Russia-controlled part of Kharkiv. She told Russian state broadcaster RIA Novosti on March 18, “The situation in Kharkov and the Kharkov region has become so tense that residents are gathering in groups to carry out acts of resistance against the officers of the TCC [Territorial Centers for Recruitment and Social Support], setting fire to their vehicles and putting up physical and sometimes armed resistance.”

Ukrainian authorities routinely react very harshly to any resistance to military enlistment officers. Sometimes, these officers have even been killed. Large police operations are staged as needed. Military conscription in Ukraine requires tens of thousands of armed police, special forces, and groups of military officers in the rear to enforce it. Zelensky’s regime may thus be said to be waging a two-front war, both of which aim to maintain the power and hegemony of the economic and political elite of Ukraine along with that of its Western masters.

In many cities of Ukraine, even far from the frontlines, there are almost daily exchanges of gunfire in both directions. Air defense units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shoot at Russian attack drones in the sky, while there are exchanges of gunfire on the ground between police and military recruiters, on the one hand, and people resisting conscription who do not want to fight and die for the Zelensky regime, on the other hand.

The May 2014 massacre in Odessa and the hypocrisy of the European Union

Another judicial precedent in Ukraine was issued on Thursday, March 13, by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). It issued a verdict regarding the massacre of anti-coup protesters that took place in the Odessa city center on May 2, 2014, six weeks after the illegal and violent coup of February 20 and 21.

The massacre killed 48 people and wounded some 250 more when the city’s historic Trade Union House was set on fire while protesters were sheltering inside. The massacre was carried out by right-wing Ukrainian ultranationalists. Images of protesters jumping from the windows or the fire-engulfed building and then being beaten to death by waiting ultranationalists shocked the country. These would have shocked the world except that Western media carefully shielded its consumers from such images, blaming instead “pro-Russia demonstrators” for much of the violence.

The massacre in Odessa quickly sparked armed civil defense in the Donbass region of what was then eastern Ukraine. Today, the region is a constituent region of the Russian Federation in the form of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s republics.

The European court reports on its website:

“In the case, the European Court of Human Rights Court held, unanimously, that there had been:

1. Violations of Article 2 (right to life/investigation) of the European Convention on Human Rights, on account of the relevant authorities’ failure to do everything that could reasonably be expected of them to prevent the violence in Odesa on 2 May 2014, to stop that violence after its outbreak, to ensure timely rescue measures for people trapped in the fire, and to institute and conduct an effective investigation into the events;

2. A violation of Article 8 (right to respect for private and family life) in respect of one applicant (application no. 39553/16) concerning the delay in handing over her father’s body for burial.

“The Court concluded that the relevant authorities had not done everything they reasonably could to prevent the violence, to stop that violence after its outbreak, and to ensure timely rescue measures for those trapped in the fire in the Trade Union Building. There had therefore been violations of the substantive aspect of Article 2 of the [aforementioned] Convention.”

The court wrote further, “The Court concluded that the relevant authorities had failed to institute and conduct an effective investigation into the events in Odesa on 2 May 2014. There had therefore been a violation of the procedural aspect of Article 2 of the Convention.”


And so, nearly 11 long years after the events, the state of Ukraine has been named by the ECHR as a key culprit in the Odessa massacre. The court ordered the country to pay the relatives of 28 victims up to 12,000 euros in compensation, for a total of some 112,000 euros.

The ECHR ruling does not name the organizers and perpetrators of the violence in Odessa on May 2. Only the inaction of law enforcement officers and firefighters is blamed. Its decision included smears against Russia, saying that “Russian propaganda” played a key role in inciting the violence that day, as though the violent, ultranationalist propaganda of the perpetrators did not exist and had no influence on events.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Justice took the ECHR decision as an opportunity to blame predecessors in order to absolve itself of any responsibility. “The tragedy in Odessa occurred three months after the Revolution of Dignity [the ‘Maidan’ coup], when the country still retained the institutional legacy of the regime of Viktor Yanukovych [the elected president who was overthrown in February 2014] in its structures, especially in the law enforcement system,” the Justice Ministry said in a statement.

Last year, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, called the events of May 2, 2014, a “shameful page” in the history of Ukraine. “The people who stood behind this crime against humanity and those who carried it out have never been punished,” Peskov noted.

An Odessa communist and participant in those tragic events, Maria Simikchi, found refuge in Crimea following the massacre. She spoke to the Southern News Service in Crimea on March 2, explaining her experience on that horrific day 11 years earlier. She explained that the arson in the Trade Union House was planned, and the governor of the Odessa region simply stood back and watched. “For me, today’s war has been taking place for 11 years, beginning with Odessa and then quickly spreading to Donbass.” The coup regime in Kiev reacted to the anti-coup protests that erupted in Donbass in May of 2014 by undertaking a civil war to suppress them.

Igor Sivak, a poet and songwriter living in Odessa, wrote on Telegram on March 13 that the ECHR decision once again emphasizes the falsehoods behind declared ‘European values’. “Here are ‘European values’ on display. In Europe in May 2014, in broad daylight, Ukrainian human rights zealots and supporters of integration into the European Union burned people alive, finished off the wounded, and then went on to intimidate the families of the dead. Meanwhile, the great ‘humanists’ have taken 11 years to decide whether that this was, in fact, premeditated, mass murder and a crime against humanity.”

Assassinations in Maidan Ukraine

As a likely consequence of forced, military conscription and impunity for participants in the neo-Nazi terror of May 2, 2014, assassinations are now taking place in Ukraine. On Friday, March 14, in broad daylight in Odessa, in front of dozens of passersby, Demian Hanul was assassinated. He was one of the active participants in the 2014 massacre in Odessa and an activist of the fascist, ‘Right Sector’ party and paramilitary force.

Ganul has, in recent years, been working for the Ukrainian secret services and actively terrorizing the citizens of Odessa in efforts to make the historic, multicultural Russian city into a ‘Ukrainian’ city and destroy all reminders of the city’s Russian and Soviet past.

Ganul and his followers were very active in promoting Ukraine’s forced military conscription. His assassin, a Serhiy Shalayev, has not spoken of his motives. He is reportedly a lieutenant of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who deserted and was once an activist of the Right Sector. He is reported to have participated in the 2014 massacre. Zelensky sent an entire police regiment to Odessa to detain and watch over Shalayev, which shows how seriously Zelensky takes the ​​public relations troubles, which neo-Nazis helping to prop up his regime can cause to him.

‘We have already lost the war’

Ukrainian unit commanders are complaining that the prospects of a truce with Russia are affecting the combat spirit of rank-and-file soldiers. They say that soldiers have no wish to die on the eve of a truce. It is now much more difficult to order soldiers to advance on this or that position; they are more likely than ever, instead, to sabotage any orders placing themselves in danger.

Against this background, television channels in Ukraine are stepping up their bellicose rhetoric. Ukrainian military ‘experts’ now appear regularly, talking of an ‘eternal and existential’ war with Russia to be passed along to the succeeding generations.

Legislator Oleksandr Dubinsky wrote on telegram on March 17 that, in fact, the Ukraine government has no choice but to “agree to everything” the Western countries place before it. He writes, “The war is over. Now we see pitiful requests to extend it a little. But the bottom line is already clear to everyone: ‘enough!’ Verbal games are being played solely to somehow save face.”

Dubinsky wrote on Telegram on the same day, “It is completely wrong to assume that a truce of 30 or more days is beneficial to Ukraine. The fatigue of the war is such that the army will simply run away or at least a very significant part will do so. That’s because due to his greed and stupidity, Zelensky has not provided soldiers with rotation and rest during the past three years.”

Ukrainian serviceman Alexander told the Spanish daily El Pais on March 15 that, in his view, Ukraine has suffered a military defeat due to its large number of losses. “In fact, we have already lost this war – simply because of all the dead.”

In an interview for the Ukrainian online publication Strana in mid-March, military expert and historian Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian General Staff said that the exhaustion of the Ukrainian army is producing a cumulative effect due to the accumulation of problems. “The cumulative effect is playing out. One second, the enemy enters your position; seconds later, he has already moved beyond you and, ‘oh no, he is now in Lviv [in western Ukraine].'”

Reisner continued, “As we have already said, one of the most serious problems of the Ukrainian army is the lack of soldiers. The front line is being constantly stretched. The Russians, as my Ukrainian colleagues say, behave like water: they penetrate through any unprotected place. At some point, they may end up behind you, with the remaining options being to retreat in an orderly manner or to run away.”

Reisner summarizes the dilemma facing the warmaking governments of the European Union: “In my opinion, we are still not entirely honest in the West. Someone has to say to the Europeans, ‘Listen, we agreed that we will help the Ukrainians. But the 16th package of sanctions against Russia did not produce the desired effect. All the tanks and so much more that we supplied did not stop the Russians. Let’s now try this option: We will take money from funds to combat climate change and from social security payments and use this to produce more shells for Ukrainians and ourselves.’ I am not sure that the peoples of Europe will react to this with shouts of ‘Hurrah!'”

He continues, “Western help is the center of gravity for Ukrainians. Why? Because Ukraine cannot independently restore the strength to wage war.”

The Austrian colonel also admits that it is the system of privatized military production that prevents the West from catching up with the Russian defense industry. “The defense industry [in the West] is made up of private companies that all want to earn a lot of money. In Russia, with its state-guided military industries, an artillery shell costs about 800-1200 euros. In Europe, the price ranges from 8,000 to 10,000 euros. Companies say ‘we can supply, but it will be very costly.'”

Reisner believes that if the European governments do not provide Ukraine with any positive prospects, this could lead to the next government in Ukraine to accept re-establishing normal relations with the Russian Federation resembling those that prevailed before the 2013-14 Maidan coup and the far-right paramilitary forces spearheading it. In fact, Western governments are well aware of the rising mood in Ukrainian society for peace with Russia, but they are ready to sacrifice the entire country so that the anti-Russian and anti-communist regime in Kiev may remain in power for just a little while longer.

Former Ukrainian legislator and nationalist Igor Mosiychuk demands that a truce be signed immediately since, according to him, this is what the people of the country are now demanding. Otherwise, in his opinion, a political explosion could occur, leading to a loss of statehood and of the very viability of the country. “This [truce] currently corresponds to the aspirations of the Ukrainian people and to the human, and military and geopolitical interests of the country. If war continues, it will inevitably lead to further losses of territory,” the nationalist warns.

Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik says that peace may arrive quite suddenly, “like a heart attack or a stroke. But it will be a heart attack or stroke to our political system, not to those of others.”

“We can negotiate, we can express our remarks, we can give beautiful interviews to all kinds of publications where we will repeat our demands to Moscow. But we will not be able to resist the combined pressure of Moscow and Washington.”

The Ukrainian leadership is well aware of this fact. Its movements in the turbulent times ahead will be chaotic and unpredictable, like the thrashings of a cornered rat that has already played its role.

https://libya360.wordpress.com/2025/03/ ... -numbered/

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Aaron Mate: Behind Zelensky’s push for a security guarantee: extremist threats and Western betrayal (Excerpt)
March 27, 2025
By Aaron Mate, Substack, 3/24/25

…At home, Zelensky faces the traditional obstacle of Ukraine’s radical and heavily armed far-right, which remains steadfastly opposed to any negotiated solution with Russia. According to a 2024 survey, fifteen percent of soldiers and veterans would join an armed revolt if Ukraine and Russia reached a peace deal on unfavorable terms.

As the Financial Times noted last year, Zelensky’s “biggest domestic problem… might come from a nationalist minority opposed to any compromise, some of whom are now armed and trained to fight.” Entering “any negotiation” with Russia, a Ukrainian official said, “could be a trigger for social instability. Zelensky knows this very well.” Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee and a member of Zelensky’s political party, was even more blunt. “There will always be a radical segment of Ukrainian society that will call any negotiation capitulation. The far right in Ukraine is growing. The right wing is a danger to democracy,” Merezhko said.

The view that Ukrainian extremists pose an obstacle to peace has newly been confirmed by an unlikely source. In a recent interview, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson acknowledged that Zelensky was undercut by radicals who stood in the way of the Minsk Accords, the UN Security Council-endorsed pact for ending the post-2014 Maidan coup civil war. Zelensky, Johnson explained, “was elected as a peacenik,” and “in 2019, he tried to do a deal with Putin.” But “his basic problem was that Ukrainian nationalists couldn’t accept the compromise.” That compromise was predicated on granting the Russian-backed Donbas rebels limited autonomy inside of Ukraine and effectively abandoning hopes of joining NATO…

(Paywall accessible at link.)

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/03/aar ... l-excerpt/

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Russia will ‘finish off’ Kiev’s forces – Putin

The Ukrainian people must realize they were duped by the Western dream of inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia, the president has said
Russia will ‘finish off’ Kiev’s forces – Putin

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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the launching ceremony of a new nuclear-powered submarine, March 27, 2025 © Sputnik / Sergei Karpukhin

President Vladimir Putin has declared that Russian forces are gaining momentum across the entire line of contact and could soon “finish off” Ukraine’s military, while commenting on attempts by Kiev’s European backers to derail a diplomatic resolution of the conflict.

The Russian president made the remarks on Thursday during a meeting with the crew of the Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine, which is equipped with Zircon hypersonic missiles. Putin reiterated that Moscow has always sought to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means but was met with deception and obstruction from the West – first with the failed Minsk Agreements and then during the 2022 Istanbul peace talks.

“Their European handlers… convinced the Ukrainian leadership that they had to continue armed resistance, essentially to the last Ukrainian, with the goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia,” he said.

Key points from Putin’s speech on placing Ukraine under UN control
Putin accused Western leaders – specifically former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson – of underestimating Russia’s resolve, and warned that the country’s military capabilities should not be taken lightly.

“He must have forgotten that there are people like you – and weapons like your submarine,” Putin told the naval crew. “Apparently, he forgot, or maybe they simply do not understand what the Russian people are made of.”

The Russian president said the conflict is reaching a turning point and expressed confidence in the outcome, noting that “across the entire line of combat engagement, our troops hold the strategic initiative.”

Not long ago I said, ‘We’ll squeeze them.’ Now there’s reason to believe we’ll finish them off. Then, I think a moment of realization must come to the Ukrainian people themselves.

Despite his hardline tone, Putin reiterated that Russia remains open to peace negotiations – as long as the core causes of the conflict are addressed.

“We are in favor of resolving these issues by peaceful means… But the root causes must be eliminated. We must ensure Russia’s security for the long historical perspective,” he said.

Moscow backs ceasefire despite Kiev’s breaches – Kremlin
Russia has repeatedly stated that it is open to peace talks, but insists that a true settlement of the conflict requires a permanent and legally-binding solution. Moscow opposes any NATO presence on Ukrainian soil and has demanded that Kiev demilitarize, denazify, adhere to a position of neutrality, and recognize the territorial “realities on the ground.”

On March 18, the Russian military was ordered to refrain from attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure under a deal agreed upon by President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump.

However, the Russian Ministry of Defense has since reported multiple Ukrainian violations, which it described as attempts to undermine Trump’s mediation efforts.

https://www.rt.com/russia/614885-putin- ... ne-forces/

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Who Will Be The Next President of Ukraine?
By Valeriy Krylko - March 27, 2025 1

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[Source: pinterest.com]

Apresidential election was supposed to be held in Ukraine on March 31, 2024. However, due to the extension of martial law for 90 days in February 2025 (until May 9, 2025), the scheduled election was postponed for the 14th time.

Ukrainian citizens are well aware that, in fact, Ukraine is currently led by an illegitimate President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was elected in 2019 for a term of five years. And although, on February 26, 2025, after the previously postponed vote, the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament of Ukraine) was still able to pass a resolution that presidential elections should not be held yet, the Ukrainian people understand that, due to the end of Zelensky’s term of office in 2024, the laws he signs and decisions he makes are illegitimate and can be challenged in court over time.

On February 19th,U.S. President Donald Trump called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator”[1] and warned that he needed to act quickly to secure peace or he risked losing his country. This intensified the animosity between the two leaders, which alarmed European officials. Washington suspended military aid and intelligence-sharing with Kyiv. Meanwhile, Donald Trump also said that Ukraine requires presidential elections and territorial concessions for further talks.

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Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump during contentious meeting. [Source: svoboda.org]

In February 2025, Petro Poroshenko, who was president of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019, also said that elections should be held on October 26, 2025. “Write it down: on October 26 this year,” Poroshenko said.[2]

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Petro Poroshenko [Source: rferl.org]

Poroshenko said that he had received information from several sources, including representatives of the administration of incumbent President Zelensky, law-enforcement agencies, the Central Electoral Commission of Ukraine and a Ukrainian printing house that is allegedly already counting the number of ballot papers needed for the election. Poroshenko also said that Ukrainian organizations had received instructions to “find ballot boxes” for the upcoming election.

According to Poroshenko, Zelensky intends to hold presidential, parliamentary and local elections simultaneously and stay in power by eliminating the opposition. Earlier, Zelensky imposed indefinite sanctions against Poroshenko as well as Ukrainian oligarchs. The sanctions include deprivation of state awards, freezing of assets, restrictions on foreign financial transfers, as well as termination of trade agreements and transactions involving them.

So who is able to compete against Zelensky, and which of the contenders have the best chances?

In 2024 and 2025, European and Ukrainian sociological centers conducted polls.Aaccording to their results, of which, four of 13 possible candidates actually have a realistic chance of becoming the next president of Ukraine: Petro Oleksiyivych Poroshenko[3]–former president of Ukraine and current chairman of the European Solidarity Party; Yulia Volodymyrivna Tymoshenko[4]–former prime minister of Ukraine and current chairman of the All-Ukrainian Association “Batkivshchyna” Party; Valerii Fedorovych Zaluzhnyi[5]–former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and current Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the United Kingdom; and Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelensky[6]–former entertainer linked to Ukrainian oligarchs and current illegitimate President of Ukraine.

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Contenders for the post of President of Ukraine. [Source: en.wikipedia.org]

At the same time, according to the German online statistical data collection platform Statista, Zelensky’s popularity has fallen by more than 30% from 2022 to 2025, with a simultaneous increase in those dissatisfied with his policies.

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[Source: statista.com]
At the end of February 2025, “Survation,” a polling and marketing research company based in London (UK), also conducted a sociological survey on the rating of contenders in a future presidential election in Ukraine. According to the results, it became clear that, in the event of a presidential election, Zelensky will not be able to achieve a guaranteed victory in the first round, and his main competitor will be Valeriy Zaluzhnyy—former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and now ambassador to the UK, rait In addition, increased criticism of Zelensky’s regime by Poroshenko and Tymoshenko is also helping to siphon off votes.

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Statistical information. [Source: survation.com]

Against this background, in February and March 2025, four high-ranking officials from the Trump administration held talks with Zelensky’s main political opponents. The talks were held with Tymoshenko, Zaluzhnyi and senior members of Poroshenko’s party, The Guardian reported, citing three Ukrainian lawmakers and a foreign policy expert from the U.S. Republican Party.[7] According to that report, the discussions focused on how to organize presidential elections in Ukraine as quickly as possible.[8] Meanwhile, the political rivalry between Poroshenko and Zelensky has lasted for many years. Thus, in 2025, Zelensky approved sanctions against Poroshenko. At the same time, Poroshenko said that this move was politically motivated.

The decline in Zelensky’s support within Ukraine is related to various scandals, specifically, corruption, the presence of a second citizenship (Great Britain), emotional instability on the background of addiction to narcotic substances, forced mobilization, failures at the front and in politics.

According to the materials published in the “Pandora Papers”[9] and quoted by the German edition of Deutsche Welle[10] and the English edition of The Guardian,[11] 14 offshore companies in the British Virgin Islands, Belize and Cyprus were registered earlier with the participation of Zelensky, the key of which was “Maltex Multicapital Corp.,” and the nominal owner of the center of offshore companies was another company, “Davegra Limited.”

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State Register of Declarations [Source: public.nazk.gov.ua]

The documents published in the “Pandora Papers” show that these companies were equally divided between Zelensky, brothers Sergey and Boris Shefirov and Andrei Yakovlev. The journalists also managed to establish that these individuals may be involved in the transfer of $40 million from entities linked to oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi to offshore companies of Zelensky and his associates. These funds “could be part of the story of withdrawal and money laundering of the Ukrainian Privatbank.”

In addition, Illia Kyva, a former deputy of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada, who was killed by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), and some other independent journalists claim that Zelensky and his family, as well as former Ukrainian President Poroshenko, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Kyrylo Budanov, former Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov, Deputy Chairman of the SBU Oleksandr Poklad received British citizenship, which was granted to them by former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the British leadership.[12]

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Zelensky with Boris Johnson. [Source: testproto.112.ua]

At the same time, Zaluzhnyi and Tymoshenko are U.S. citizens.[13] Therefore, many Ukrainian citizens believe that, as a result of losing the military conflict and the election, Zelensky will flee with his family to the UK and ask his Western handlers for guarantees of personal security. And London will go along with it when the current head of the Kyiv regime reaches a stalemate and fulfills all obligations.

The United States, in its search for a settlement to the conflict, may have finally decided to write off Zelensky. On March 10, 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Ukraine should cede territory as part of any peace agreement.[14] Rubio’s statement was made after Trump’s speech and the German publication Bild published a story about stopping the supply of American weapons to Ukraine until Zelensky resigns from the presidency.[15] However, subsequently US. aid and weapons supplies were resumed.

According to Trump, the U.S. has given Ukraine more than $350 billion dollars in aid, while the EU has

given about 130 billion euros.[16] In this regard, the U.S. is demanding the transfer of mining rights in Ukraine to Western companies as compensation.

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Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that Zelensky’s days are numbered. The U.S. is currently undecided on whom to support in the upcoming presidential election in Ukraine. At the moment, Zaluzhnyi is considered the main contender, while Poroshenko and Tymoshenko are considered as secondary.

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Valerii Zaluzhnyi could be Ukraine’s next president. [Source: feeds.bbci.com]

At the same time, the current Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, who used to be the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, is considered the most popular politician in Ukraine. A number of experts agree that Zaluzhnyi has a significant chance to win the future presidential election in Ukraine. If he is elected president, the current head of the Ukrainian president’s office, Andrii Yermak, is likely to be appointed prime minister.

However, regardless of who becomes the next president, this leader will have to rule over the ruins of the country called Ukraine. From 2022 to 2025, Ukraine’s economy has been completely destroyed, the energy sector has collapsed, a huge national debt has been accumulated, millions of Ukrainian citizens have left the country, and the U.S. is demanding the transfer of mineral rights to Western companies.

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State debt of Ukraine. [Source: statista.com]

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Map of the western part of the Ukrainian energy system and its existing and planned interconnections with Moldova and the continental European system. [Source: iea.org]

All these circumstances allow us to predict the collapse of Ukraine as an independent state and the possible beginning of a civil war on its ruins.

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[Source: wbs.ac.uk]

(Footnotes at link.)

https://covertactionmagazine.com/2025/0 ... f-ukraine/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Footnotes from the Ukrainian "Crisis"; New High-Points in Cynicism Part V

Post by blindpig » Sun Mar 30, 2025 12:28 pm

Parallel negotiations, unviable plans
Posted by @nsanzo ⋅ 03/30/2025

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With the aggressiveness typical of someone who still believes he maintains control of the seas and can order other countries around, Keir Starmer, who is continuing with unilateral European plans to impose an armed mission in Ukraine as part of an agreement whose negotiation he is not present, has demanded that Russia respond in "weeks, not months." The British prime minister , whose government this week announced draconian cuts to the welfare system while defending a sharp increase in military spending, is trying to emerge as the leader of a Europe—understood as the member states of NATO and the EU—that is seeking ways to be relevant in the developments in Ukraine and that still cannot explain how it has lost control of the situation in the face of a Trumpism that insists on ending a war it hates by identifying it with the Biden administration.

Clearly annoyed by the direct negotiations the United States is conducting with the Russian Federation, which are not limited to Ukraine but affect all sorts of issues, highlighting the three years in which Kyiv and the European Union have insisted that Russia was isolated, Zelensky is trying to balance Ukrainian participation in the negotiations ordered by Trump with European initiatives that contradict the idea of ​​a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. After hearing this directly from the US president in the Oval Office of the White House, Ukraine has realized that it does not have enough cards to impose its position in negotiations that also involve the other side of the war. European protection and the existence of the Normandy Format, always above the Minsk Trilateral Contact Group, accustomed Ukraine to always having a big brother looking after its interests in negotiations, something that has changed with the arrival of Donald Trump.

The United States has made it clear that it seeks to end the war and that it wants to do so with benefits for both sides. In this game, too, Moscow has more tangible assets, such as the reopening of the Russian market, which is much more attractive than the Ukrainian one, and, above all, the reintegration of American companies into the Russian oil extraction industry. Horrified, Zelensky's team has watched as what was presented as a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, which kyiv had accepted under pressure from Washington, turned into a negotiation with Moscow. Unlike with Ukraine, the United States does not have sufficiently robust pressure tools to force Russia to change its intentions. Washington can, as it did earlier this month, halt the supply of arms and intelligence to kyiv, but it cannot, without intervening militarily in a direct confrontation, blind Moscow's satellites or halt supplies to its military industry. Russia is alone in this war, a burden in economic terms, but also a guarantee that no external actor has the capacity to prevail in the negotiation process.

Isolated from important decision-making, European countries and Ukraine continue their internal negotiation process, regardless of the possibilities of implementing the plans they develop in the continuous meetings and public relations events that reaffirm their desire to maintain the status quo of imposing Ukrainian dictates regardless of the reality on the ground. “We have agreed to hold an urgent meeting in Ukraine within a week with representatives of the general staffs of the leading countries, who will be fully prepared for the deployment of troops on Ukrainian territory. France, Great Britain, and Ukraine will undoubtedly be. It is, let's say, a triangle in this matter,” Volodymyr Zelensky stated after the Paris meeting, which failed to produce a consensus even among the participating countries.

With this action, Ukraine and its European allies are seeking a way to create faits accomplis that must be taken into account by the United States, which dominates the negotiations. This follows the logic of Zelensky's Victory Plan , a five-point roadmap detailing the concessions Ukraine expected from its allies. One of those points was future deterrence, which Ukraine hoped would be embodied in a large package of Western missiles installed in the country. Currently, that idea has been transformed into Starmer's plan, a military mission with a number of troops that would be small in the event of external aggression, but which, because it assumes a NATO presence in the country, is sufficient to derail the prospects of the dialogue process currently underway. Despite its slow pace, this is the first time since 2022 that there is at least the possibility of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. But for European countries, as for Ukraine, Russian participation in this dialogue is an unacceptable red line and must be countered with military deterrence from NATO countries, which Moscow must accept unconditionally.

“Starmer to send military commanders to Ukraine to work out ceasefire,” The Telegraph headlined on Friday , without concealing the significance of an ultimatum in diplomatic language. “Sir Keir demanded that Putin be given ‘days and weeks’ to commit to a lasting peace after co-hosting a ‘coalition of willing nations’ summit in Paris with Emmanuel Macron on Thursday.” The use of the passive voice betrays both the outlet and the British prime minister, who, while working with his French counterpart to impose a fait accompli on the ground, is aware that he lacks the strength—or the cards, in Donald Trump’s words—to impose such an ultimatum on his own.

“If there were to be another widespread aggression against Ukrainian soil, these armies would, in fact, be under attack, and then this is our usual framework for engagement,” Macron said. “Our soldiers, when engaged and deployed, are there to react and respond to the decisions of the commander-in-chief, and if they find themselves in a conflict situation, to respond to it,” wrote the AP on Friday, describing the French president’s statements about the possibility of having to fight against Russia if the military mission he is preparing with Macron were to succeed. “From proxy war to real war,” commented Ukrainian-Canadian academic Ivan Katchanovski. However, the absence of a clear yes to the question of whether French and British soldiers would fight against Russia—they would not, they would find themselves protected in the rear of the Ukrainian army, charged with dying to defend them—reflects the design problems of the Anglo-French plan. Since the deterrence mission, which despite the announcement that it will have troops on land, sea, and air, still requires security guarantees from the United States, the ability of Starmer, Macron, and Zelensky to impose their plan as part of a war resolution agreement depends on Washington.

Speaking to the press, Grigory Karasin stated that after 12 hours of negotiations, there had been "no radical breakthrough, but the opportunities are there." The Russian negotiator insisted that "it would have been naive to expect any progress." Karasin also lowered expectations regarding the timeframe for a definitive ceasefire, which, according to the Russian official, could come by the end of the year or even next year—not exactly the speed with which Trump hoped to resolve the conflict, nor the weeks, not months, in which Starmer demands Russia's unconditional acceptance of the plan presented to it. Like every Russian word about the reality of the war, Karasin's statements will be used by Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and France as evidence that Russia is not negotiating in good faith, does not desire an end to the war, and is only using diplomacy as a decoy. The goal is none other than to get Trump to perceive reality the way Kiev expects it to be interpreted: Ukraine desires peace—a just and lasting one—while Russia is the obstacle, and therefore should not be taken into account in the diplomatic process, which should be limited to internal negotiations and the imposition of terms on Moscow. Vladimir Putin's words on Thursday, when he stated that a provisional government managed by the United Nations could take over the governance of Ukraine, are being used to this end. Curiously, those who emphasize these words do not emphasize Zelensky's words—which provoked Putin's response—to media outlets such as Euronews , which insisted that "Putin will die soon" to downplay the importance of negotiating with Russia.

This is also the basis of the European tactic, which is to get Donald Trump to tire of Russia and agree to support London, Paris, and Brussels in their attempt to impose a resolution to the conflict, either through endless war until Ukraine can negotiate from a position of strength or by forcing Moscow to unconditionally accept unacceptable terms now that do not correspond to the reality on the ground. “If the Europeans had an alternative plan to offer, perhaps all this would make sense. But they don't. Instead, they cling to vague and completely generic arguments about supporting Ukraine for as long as necessary, freezing Putin out for as long as necessary, and waiting for a 'just peace.' That all sounds very good if it weren't for the fact that a 'just peace,' as Zelensky defines it—a full and complete withdrawal of Russian troops, reparations for Ukrainians, and Russian military officers sitting in the dock answering war crimes charges—is completely unrealistic,” writes The Telegraph in an article in which it proclaims that “the Europeans have no idea what they are doing.” “This is not what the Trump administration wants to hear. Instead of gaining support from the Europeans, they are meeting with resistance. It doesn't take a geopolitical genius like Hans Morgenthau or Henry Kissinger to recognize that Trump, a man as self-assured as he is impatient, is likely to view this stance as an act of outright defiance,” he concludes.

https://slavyangrad.es/2025/03/30/negoc ... inviables/

Google Translator

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Large Frontline Summary March 28th to 29th, 2025

Report by Marat Khairullin with illustrations by Mikhail Popov.
Zinderneuf
Mar 29, 2025
The Kursk Front

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The Russian Armed Forces continue to push the enemy out of our territories while also expanding control and occupying new border areas in the Sumy region.

In the Sudzha district, the enemy currently retains full control over just two villages: Oleshnya, where fighting is already approaching, and Gornal, with its fortified forested areas surrounding it.

The settlement of Gogolevka has been liberated. Along the Sudza-Yunakovka road, our units have reached the border, taking full control of the Sudzha border checkpoint, where our flag now flies once again. The checkpoint on the Ukrainian side is also under our control.

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In the area of the settlement of Guevo, assault operations continue. The forested area east of the village has been completely cleared, while fighting is now taking place in the center of the settlement. Previously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to establish a stronghold in the center of Guevo on the territory of a distillery. The battle for it was intense, with artillery strikes being used against the enemy. It should be noted that in this sector, our units are facing elite, well-trained Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO).

In the Sumy region, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the areas of Vladimirovka, Veselovka, and Basovka. Vladimirovka and Basovka are partially under our control, while Veselovka has been liberated, as announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The Russian Army is pressuring the Yunakovka-Sudzha highway from both sides—a critical supply route for the AFU in the Sudzha district. This road is essentially the only viable option, as alternative routes have limited capacity. It is likely that after the liberation of Guevo, an encirclement of Yunakovka will begin, along with the establishment of a security zone.

The Kupyansk Front

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The Russian Armed Forces continue their offensive on the Kupyansk front, expanding their control zone on the right bank of the Oskol River.

Units of the "Zapad" (West) Group have liberated the settlement of Krasnoe Pervoe (Krasnoe 1). This has significantly worsened the AFU’s position near the settlement of Kamenka, which is now effectively encircled.

The Lyman Front

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ЛБС 01.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Зона Активности=Zone of Activity.
Russian Army units, having driven the enemy out of several strongholds, have advanced close to the settlement of Yekaterinovka. Assault operations are underway on the outskirts of the village.

Expansion of our control continues in the area of the settlement of Kolodezi, where intense efforts are being made to clear enemy strongholds.

The Toretsk Front

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ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 1st, 2025. Участки Активности=Area of Activity.

Russian units have secured positions in the southern part of the forested area northwest of the city. Control over this area will allow pressure to be exerted on Shcherbinovka from the flank while maintaining tight fire control over enemy logistics routes.

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On the (Ukrainian) right flank of the sector, the Russian Armed Forces continue their advance along the Alexandropol-Sukhaya Balka line. The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced the liberation of the settlement of Panteleimonovka.

The South Donetsk Front

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 30.11.2024=Line of Combat Contact November 30th, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Зона Продвижения=Zone of advancement.

The Russian Army is advancing in the pocket north of Andreevka-Alekseevka. According to the latest reports, our forces have already reached the settlement of Bogdanovka. Capturing this settlement will enable flanking attacks against enemy forces entrenched near Troitskoe.

North of Troitskoe, pressure continues toward Kotlyarovka from the Nadezhdinka (Ukrainian: Nadiivka) area. This will allow a partial encirclement of the enemy, weakening their defensive positions.

These are effectively the last settlements in this sector before the border with the Dnepropetrovsk region. However, the primary focus will likely remain on the fortified area of Bogatyr-Alekseevka-Razliv. Our forces have reached the outskirts of Razliv from the east, with fighting now reaching the center of the village.

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ЛБС 31.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 31st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. ЛБС 01.02.2025=Line of Combat Contact February 1st, 2025. Продвижение после предыдущей сводки=Progress since the previous summary.

In the south, advances are being made toward Bogatyr along the Dneproenergiya-Razdolnoe line.

North of Dneproenergiya, Russian forces have advanced along the bank of the Mokrye Yaly River and begun pressuring the settlement of Veseloe from the east. Some reports indicate attempts to cross the river in this sector. As a result, Veseloe is under pressure from two directions—south and east—significantly weakening the enemy’s defensive stability despite their stubborn resistance.

Control has been expanded in the area of Burlatskoe, reducing the risk of flanking attacks during further advances along the Veseloe-Fyodorovka line. Additionally, pressure is increasing on the defenses of Shevchenko, from which the enemy may soon be forced to retreat toward Volnoye Pole.

The Zaporozhye Front

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ЛБС 01.10.2024=Line of Combat Contact October 1st, 2024. ЛБС 01.01.2025=Line of Combat Contact January 1st, 2025. Активности=Activity.

Units of the "Dnepr" troop grouping have liberated the settlement of Shcherbaki.

*******

SITREP 3/28/25: Putin Vows to 'Finish Off' Ukraine?
Simplicius
Mar 28, 2025

Putin made some very interesting statements in his meeting with the sailors of the Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine in Murmansk, ones bound to reignite hope in the doomsayer quarters who’ve long believed Putin is looking for any opportunity to ‘concede to the West’.

The first was that Russia will no longer make mistakes of being ‘led by the nose’ by Western partners, and that any conflict settlements will have to come by virtue of meeting Russian conditions.

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Well, in reality he did say he “hopes” no mistakes will be made—but you know what they say about hope.

The more decisive statement came by way of Putin’s reassurance that Russia has the strategic initiative on every front, and by all reasonable probabilities will “finish off” Ukraine: (Video at link.)

Putin on the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

We are gradually, not as quickly as some would like, but nevertheless persistently and confidently moving towards achieving all the goals declared at the beginning of this operation. Along the entire line of combat contact, our troops have the strategic initiative.

I said just recently: "We will finish them off." There is reason to believe that we will finish them off.


Along this tack, we have new statements from Zelensky and senior figures of the AFU which confirm that Russia is in fact planning major new offensives to potentially seize key cities and strongholds, as we’ve just discussed in recent articles.

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Ukrainian intelligence reports have indicated that Russia is bracing for new offensives in Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Source: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a statement during a meeting of European leaders in Paris on support for Ukraine

Quote: "According to our intelligence, Russia is getting ready for new offensives against the Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. They're dragging out the talks and trying to get the US stuck in endless, pointless discussions about fake 'conditions' just to buy time and then try to grab more land."


By the way, it’s worth noting the strange contradiction in the above statement, which reflects the wider narrative coming from the West. Zelensky here claims that Russia is trying to “buy time”—i.e. draw out the ‘negotiations’ in order to continue the war. But this is odd: wasn’t it Russia, according to Zelensky and the West, that is on its knees and badly needs a ceasefire to replenish? Why would Russia now be intent on doing anything it can to stop negotiations and in fact continue the conflict?

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It exposes the sham of the current negotiations track, proving that it is actually the West and Ukraine that are desperate to flytrap Russia in a ‘ceasefire’ while spinning the narrative that Russia is the one that badly needs it. In reality, it’s now becoming clearer than ever that the ‘ceasefire’ is a trap to immediately inject French and British troops into Ukraine, to freeze the conflict indefinitely in unfavorable terms to Russia.

Zelensky Announces Meeting on Potential Deployment of Foreign Troops to Ukraine White Powder Sommelier Zelensky has announced a closed-door meeting with representatives of countries that are "100% ready" to deploy a military contingent to Ukraine.

"Not all of them will attend—we are inviting a select group. France, Britain, and Ukraine will definitely be there. It’s, let’s say, a triangle," Zelensky explained. The meeting is set to take place within the week.


As you can see from the above report, the circle is ever-shrinking from a ‘coalition of the willing’—which failed to materialize this week—to merely Starmer and Macron’s grand delusions of combat troops that will “respond”, according to Macron, if fired upon by Russian forces:

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https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... d-respond/

The natural question arises: what possible incentive would Russia have to seek a ceasefire which would potentially see belligerent British and French troops occupying historical Russian lands and waiting to “respond” to any perceived Russian ‘attacks’? It would be crazy for Russia to seek a ceasefire that even remotely allows for such a possibility. Recall that Macron said Putin has “no choice” in the matter, and that these European troops would be deployed no matter what Russia thinks. As such, Russia’s optimal solution is more than obvious: avoid ceasefire at all costs and continue the war. In such a case, barmy Starmer and micro-Macron may still eventually decide to inject troops to save Ukraine on the eve of final collapse, but at least in this case it will be obvious who’s the aggressor, making subsequent Russian responses much more palatable.

But getting back to Zelensky’s warnings of a coming season of offensives, an AFU Major named Valery Prozapas corroborated these views:

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https://today.ua/ru/477939-rosiyani-pla ... -prozapas/

The Russian Federation plans to "occupy" Zaporizhia, Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa, - Major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Prozapas

The goal is to connect the Crimean corridor with Transnistria. The Russians are preparing bridgeheads for an offensive, the Major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine noted


We discussed here long ago that a potential Russian plan for crossing the Dnieper could include first capturing Zaporozhye city, which would allow maintaining a secure bridgehead whether the AFU blows the main Zaporozhye bridges or not. That’s because Zaporozhye has the large Khortytsia isle which spans across the river, that would likely allow much easier pontooning and building of temporary bridge structures than elsewhere on the river.

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From the above article:

It is indicated that Zaporozhye is needed as an outpost, capturing which it will be possible to move south, conveniently crossing the Dnieper. However, this does not mean that the enemy will be able to realize their intentions. According to the analyst, you need to be prepared for the worst and not expect a miracle. And then the invaders will not be able to achieve the desired result.

Granted, there’s other such islets further south towards Kherson, but they’re all undeveloped and marshy, whereas Khortytsia is developed, with good infrastructural roads, etc.

Russia has recently restarted offensives in this direction, making some of the largest gains of the past weeks of any front. Using Suriyak’s map, we can see the following:

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Virtually everything above that yellow line was just captured in the past week and change. We have footage from the assault on the area indicated by the green circle above:

An interesting episode during yesterday's battle in the Orekhov tactical direction at Sherbaki.

Attacking Russian unit ran into and surprised a Ukrainian APC that didn't open fire and apparently pretended to be out of action.


(Video at link.)

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Note the Russian tactic above, being used with more regularity—the APC pumps out a smokescreen for the advancing troops. I posted this video in the last paywalled article, so I’ll post it publicly here—Russian troops have now been utilizing drones to set smokescreens as well: (Video at link.)

Russian forces have pushed along virtually every other front. In the Pokrovsk direction they have expanded control in the south and west directions. Most notable has been on the Velyka Novosilka direction, where they have continued pushing northward along the Mokry Yaly river. You may recall Novy Komar was just captured a couple months ago, with Skudne several weeks ago:

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On the Kreminna front, near the Donetsk-Lugansk administrative borders, Russian forces continue pushing westward in the direction of Izyum:

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And on the Kupyansk front, the ‘bridgehead’ over the Oskil continues expanding—in fact it has turned into at least four separate ‘bridgehead’ areas at this point:

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1 ... 0x620.jpeg[/img]

Lastly, in Kursk Russian forces have captured the border crossing at Sudzha, the same one where the AFU once captured a large batch of conscripts in the first stage of the Kursk invasion:

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(Video at link.)

You can see there’s only a small tract of land south of the crossing that remains in Ukraine’s hands, though in the second area, Ukraine still holds a tiny portion of Guevo, though some sources have claimed Russia had finished capturing it:

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But in fact Russian now holds more Sumy territory than Ukraine holds in Kursk, owing to increasing expansion of Russia’s captures outside of the border there:

Note the circled areas:

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For the past few days Ukraine has been subject to massive Russian strikes, mostly via drones, with some ballistic missiles mixed in. Tonight, Poltava and Dnipro have been hit, with a hotel housing mercenaries again the target, amongst other things.

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It looks increasingly like the energy infrastructure deal may be off, particularly after Ukraine again struck the Sudzha gas metering terminal. Given Putin’s strong words of ‘finishing off’ Ukraine, and the US’ own concession that negotiations are not even near the point of “high level talks”, it’s safe to say the conflict will continue on.

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In fact, some are predicting a new phase of the conflict, given that the US-Ukraine rupture appears to be entering a final point of disconnection now that Zelensky has again reneged on his minerals offer, rejecting that US aid should be treated as “debt” for Ukraine to “pay back”.

Putin has now declared that what the US does with Greenland is their business, with many viewing this as a ‘winking’ quid-pro-quo nudge implying Russia will turn a blind eye to the acquisition if US allows Russia to do what it must in Ukraine for its own security reasons. (Video at link.)

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It’s likely not a ‘thought-out’ plan of this sort, but rather Putin’s long-held adherence to basic principles, which include not interfering in the affairs of other sovereign nations.

Some last items of interest:

In the recent premium article we discussed how drones are climbing closer and closer toward overtaking artillery. An interesting new report gives us some of the first official corroborating figures. A Russian medical journal found that a whopping 75% of all wounds to Russian troops now come by way of drones, with only 20% of wounds attributed to artillery:

More than 75% of all injuries to Russian soldiers received during trench warfare were caused by attacks by Ukrainian UAVs.

These statistics were cited by Russian military doctors, whose article was published in the March issue of the Military Medical Journal of the Russian Defense Ministry.

Another 20% of the soldiers surveyed were injured as a result of artillery shelling, only 4% from small arms.

According to the military doctors' report, the main Ukrainian means of destruction during trench warfare are small attack UAVs.

Drones have also affected the time it takes to evacuate the wounded for surgical care. It has increased threefold to 14.5 hours.

It is noteworthy that the Ukrainian military also says that most of the Ukrainian Armed Forces losses are now being suffered from Russian UAV strikes.

Although because the Russians have more artillery ammunition and more varied systems (such as FABs) it is likely that the % will not be as high.


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Granted, we know Ukraine has little artillery left and relies almost entirely on drones now, so the figures were expected. However, even recently cited ballpark statistics still were not that high—they claimed something like 65% of Ukrainian hits were from drones; this puts it in an entirely new light.

Given that Russia has a far greater preponderance of artillery, Fabs, and other systems we can surmise that the drone figures are lower the other way around. But as I said in the paywalled piece, we’re at the point where even Russian fire damage by way of drones can begin plausibly approaching the 30-50% mark, if not higher.



Again we’ve had an exchange of bodies, or cargo 200, between the two sides.

If you thought the last numbers were jaw-droppingly unbelievable, this time is even worse:

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Recall the Ukrainian side confirms the figures of Russian bodies they return, but do not confirm the number of Ukrainian bodies Russian returns to them, for reasons which seem obvious.

I’ve been covering every exchange since last year, and last time we had the ratio as follows:

Russian losses: 429
Ukrainian losses: 4,304
Ratio: 10.03 to 1

Now we add to it today’s numbers, and get:

Russian losses: 464
Ukrainian losses: 5,213
Ratio: 11.24 to 1

Note the Russians actually got 35 military bodies, the remaining 8 were civilian.

As jarring as the disparity might seem, I obviously do not realistically think the KIA ratio is quite that lopsided in reality, but I’m simply reporting the facts as they are. The exchange of bodies shows an incredibly lopsided record—justify it however you’d like for yourself. As usual, there’ll be the claims of “Russians are moving forward so they pick up more bodies”, and as usual I counter with: “Russians are moving forward because they’re killing more Ukrainians, forcing the AFU to retreat.” If AFU was winning and killing more Russians, then Russians wouldn’t be “moving forward.” If you’ve been watching the Kursk footage you’d know how bad the kill ratio is up there—virtual mountains of AFU corpses are littering every street.



A Russian Il-38N anti-submarine craft buzzed the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier near Japan while being intercepted by an F-35 and F-18: (Video at link.)

Many Americans were outraged that a Russian patrol craft was able to get within feet of a flagship Nimitz Class aircraft carrier worth nearly $20 billion in such a way.



As part of its campaign to drum up war fears against Russia, the EU is beginning to roll out a series of cringe-worthy ads urging the population to put together “survival bags” in case of war with Russia: (Video at link.)

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Hungarian Foreign Affairs Minister scathed the charade:

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It’s all meant to create an atmosphere of crisis to bring citizens in line with the Eurocrats’ illegal confiscation of funds and anti-democratic practices in pushing for war.



Amidst news of Russian ‘economic demise’, Russian international reserves reportedly increased by $8.5 billion this week, according to the Bank of Russia:

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https://tass.com/economy/1935085


Another piece of reporting from the last premium article has been corroborated by Oryx. I spoke of the diminishing Russian tank losses, and how they are trending toward a break-even level in terms of new production, rather than refurbishments:

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Granted, I would expect them to shoot up again if Russia does launch a series of wide-scale spring offensives on every front, but we’ll see—perhaps Russia will continue sticking to the new ‘light attack’ tactics while preserving heavy armor.

There has been increasing discussion surrounding suggestions that Russia may be in a stage of stockpiling its better and newer equipment for some future offensive, or perhaps for a potential NATO clash. This was emphasized by another chart showing that current in-production IFVs—which essentially amounts to BMP-3s—have been dipping in proportional losses, while older BMPs take their place:

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This appears to suggest—at least according to one reading of the data—that Russia may be holding back the newer gear, which corresponds to a previous German intelligence report:

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https://thedefensepost.com/2024/04/26/r ... d-ukraine/


An interesting chart showing upcoming Russian satellite launch schedules:

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The first, ‘Marathon’ are a series of Russian communication satellites akin to Starlink, though not the ‘official’ Russian Starlink equivalent, which is a separate project being developed. It’s meant more for various future gadgets and electronic objects to communicate to each other.

The Skifs are another series of broadband internet comms satellites, and Messenger M1 is likewise a separate communications satellite project for internet and wireless transmission.



Last time we showed Medvedev demonstrating new anti-drone laser weapons, this time Russia has shown off a laser ‘rifle’ reportedly capable of taking down drones: (Video at link.)

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On that note, Russian AD carried out what appears to be the first shoot down of an ATACMS via a kinetic ‘hit-to-kill’ rather than fragmentary warhead:

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You can see the accuracy of the hit above.

The latest Pantsir-SM-SV system carries the 57EBM-E missile with kinetic kill technology—reportedly seen on the left below:

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Interestingly, this comes days after reports that the first Russian Pantsir-SM-SV was seen on the front:

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The article notes:

The armament includes two types of surface-to-air missiles. The system can fire the standard 57E6 missile, as well as the two-stage 57E6M, which features a higher-speed booster, improved aerodynamic performance, and kinetic impact warhead referred to as "Zavesa." The 57E6M reaches speeds up to Mach 5.5 and can intercept targets at ranges up to 35 kilometers. Some reports also mention a 57EBM-E missile variant that uses “hit-to-kill” technology and does not carry an explosive warhead. The use of this type of interceptor is intended to engage ballistic or hypersonic threats through direct kinetic impact.

It does seem to check out because the impact point on the ATACMS looks like a small interceptor hit it, otherwise the missile may have completely disintegrated. If true, then for a SHORAD AD system like the Pantsir to be taking out ballistic missiles like the ATACMS so accurately is quite an unprecedented accomplishment no other country can lay claim to.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... -to-finish

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John Wight: Ukraine & Revolution
March 28, 2025 natyliesb
By John Wight, Consortium News, 3/13/25

The real enemy of any government or regime, in the last analysis, is its own people. They are who rulers fear most.

That is accordingly why so much effort is devoted by rulers to propaganda, primarily designed to sustain the myth there exists a national interest to which all are bound, regardless of socioeconomic status or one’s actual life experience.

In truth there is no such thing as a “national interest.” Only the interests of the dominant class of rulers matters. Thus heavy lies the crown, and lightly is tread the line between legitimacy and illegitimacy.

This dynamic is most pronounced in time of war. Men with guns sent to fight other men with guns are never more dangerous than when the initial, warm glow of patriotism, responsible for them readily marching towards their own demise, is replaced by the grim reality of suffering and slaughter.

It is then when that most dangerous of all things for rulers emerges: a still-armed soldier who starts to reflect.

The Russian Revolution of 1917 is the historical example, tout court, of how poor soldiers, thrown into the maw of combat, develop a revolutionary consciousness which supersedes the national one they’d set out to defend.

Civil unrest also erupted in France and Germany after this war to end all wars, though in both cases capital’s forces proved strong enough to overcome the threat from below.

A Turning in Ukraine

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Russian President Vladimir Putin talking with Alexei Smirnov, acting governor of Kursk, on Aug. 8, 2024, about the Ukrainian incursion. (Kremlin.ru / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0)

Ukraine has lost the First World War of our time. Kiev’s Kursk offensive and occupation of Russian territory has at this writing turned into a disastrous rout. Further still, Ukraine’s manpower shortage has reached critical mass. No amount of European Union and U.K. financial and material support will be able to salvage or alter the reality on the ground without the deployment of European troops.

The governing regime of any country reduced to literally kidnapping young men off the street, as the Ukrainians have been, to send into combat can be said to have relinquished any claim of legitimacy.

Ukraine, after three years of unremitting conflict, is no longer a sovereign state. It is a proxy of NATO and Brussels. It is a failed experiment in ethno-nationalism and ethno-fascism. It is the Israel of eastern Europe and equally reactionary. The country’s president, Volodomyr Zelensky, when viewed in this light, has been nothing more than a convenient agent of Western imperialism.

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Zelensky with President Donald Trump in the White House on Feb. 28. (White House / Flickr)

To witness him being dressed down by President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in the Oval Office was to see how power operates. The khaki-clad, diminutive leader of this corrupt state was by that point used to being feted like some touring rock star in Western capitals across the world. Now, suddenly, there he was being reduced to his “actual” status as Washington’s footstool, useful only until his usefulness has expired.

To Trump’s credit at least, he comes to the table shorn of illusions as to the machinations of the warmongering, Western security establishment that would apparently prefer WWIII to peace in our time.

From the very same establishment flows the sordid and squalid values of the mortuary. The deaths of a million young men is for them a sacrifice worth paying in the name of hegemony and legacy.

It is why EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron et al. are the worst possible leaders in place at the most critical time.

In every bombastic speech that von der Leyen delivers — during which she relentlessly attempts to paint Russia as the repository of a Mongol Horde intent on global domination — you are left with the indelible impression of a woman who has never forgiven the Red Army for storming the gates of Berlin in 1945.

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“Raising a flag over the Reichstag” May 13, 1945. (Yevgeny Khaldei/ Adam Cuerden / mil.ru / Wikimedia Commons / Public domain)

Starmer has made a virtue of lacking any. This pumped-up, local bank manager is Tony Blair — without the laughs. He is a tragedy middle England produced, a man so wooden he doesn’t put his suit on in the morning. His suit puts him on.

As for Macron, this centrist popinjay is a king without a throne. To watch him bestride Europe like an aspiring Colossus is to be reminded of Napoleon’s observation that “In politics stupidity is not a handicap.”

Russia under President Vladimir Putin has never been forgiven, and will never be forgiven, for the “crime” of recovering from the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

A weak and pliant Moscow has long been the default position of those in the West who view geopolitics as a struggle for domination, no matter the consequences, instead of the need for co-operation with the desire to forestall such consequences in mind.

Ukrainian men and women have been sacrificed on the chopping block of NATO expansionism. They have been fed into the meat grinder fashioned in the name of the zero sum game of power politics, with the bastards responsible for so much death and destruction in need of being held to account, and soon.

The Bolsheviks understood this need and acted upon in it in the context of the killing fields of WWI.

Indeed, Ukraine has its Alexander Kerensky in the shape of Zelensky. In other words, a failed leader doing his utmost to continue a losing war in the name of power for power’s sake.

Ukraine, as things stand — and with the former historical comparison in mind — is in desperate need of its Vladimir Lenin. But there is none in sight. Nor any organized revolutionary party. There are some Ukrainian soldiers furious with Kiev, however.

In 2025, the guns of the Ukrainian soldiers, shivering and freezing in the trenches, are pointed in the wrong direction. As the man said: “War happens when the government tells you who the enemy is. Revolution happens when you figure it out for yourself.”

The sooner the long suffering troops of the Ukrainian armed forces figure it out for themselves, the better it would be for all of us.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/03/joh ... evolution/

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And Again ...

... for those who still do not get nuances. Here is official from Russian Foreign Ministry. Zakharova verbatim.

Вопрос: По сообщению Минобороны России, утром 28 марта, ВСУ нанесли двойной удар с применением, по предварительной информации, реактивных снарядов РСЗО HIMARS по ГИС «Суджа». Как Вы могли бы это прокомментировать?

Ответ: В курсе этого сообщения. При этом есть основания полагать, что наведение и целеуказание ударов осуществлялось через французские спутниковые системы, а ввод координат и запуск – британскими специалистами. Команду давали из Лондона. Неделю назад, 21 марта, этот объект уже подвергался террористической атаке киевского режима, приказавшего своим боевикам взорвать его при отступлении из Курской области. Теперь, после ракетного огня, ГИС «Суджа» практически уничтожена.


Translation: Question: According to the Russian Defense Ministry, on the morning of March 28, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a double strike using, according to preliminary information, HIMARS rockets at the Sudzha GIS. How could you comment on this?

Answer: I am aware of this report. At the same time, there is reason to believe that the guidance and targeting of the strikes was carried out through French satellite systems, and the input of coordinates and launch were carried out by British specialists. The command was given from London. A week ago, on March 21, this facility was already subjected to a terrorist attack by the Kyiv regime, which ordered its militants to blow it up during its retreat from the Kursk region. Now, after the rocket fire, the Sudzha GIS has been practically destroyed.


Immediately after that loser Guterres comes up and states that 404 government is "legitimate". Chihuahuas decided to simulate the game. Too late.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2025/03/and-again.html

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Europe insists on continued sanctions, post-ceasefire troop deployment in Ukraine

At a summit in Paris, European leaders offered little clarity on peace efforts in Ukraine but reaffirmed support for ongoing sanctions on Russia and post-ceasefire troop deployment

March 28, 2025 by Ana Vračar

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European leaders summit in Paris, March 27, 2025. Source: Ursula von der Leyen/X.

European leaders gathered in Paris on March 27 for another summit on the war in Ukraine, continuing discussions launched alongside peace negotiations initiated by the Trump presidency. The stated goal of the meeting was shaping a roadmap towards a “robust peace.”

Judging from the conclusions of the summit, European heads of state continue to believe such a peace will be achieved by prolonging sanctions on Russia, financing more weapons for Ukraine, and preparing a so-called “reassurance force” to be deployed after a future ceasefire.

French President Emmanuel Macron, co-hosting the summit with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, stressed – once again – the need to strengthen Ukraine’s military and Europe’s own armament capabilities. He also announced that French and British military officials would soon visit Ukraine to identify possible deployment sites for the new force.

This plan, just like previous ideas shared by European leaders, sidesteps Russia’s repeated warnings that any European troop presence in Ukraine would rule out a ceasefire.

While some EU officials, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, claimed this “coalition of the willing” is getting “bigger, stronger, and more determined,” doubts remain. Among the 31 participants of the summit, a sizable portion expressed concern about sending troops without US support – a perplexing stance, considering that much of these European summits seem to be designed to convince Donald Trump that the region is serious about rearming and decreasing its reliance on the US.

Despite bold statements, the summit ended with few concrete answers. And while Macron insisted the coalition doesn’t need unanimity for acting, ongoing divisions suggest that plan-making will remain complicated in the foreseeable future.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2025/03/28/ ... n-ukraine/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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