Blues for Europa

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blindpig
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Tue Oct 21, 2025 1:44 pm

Balkan frontier
October 20, 2025
Rybar

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“NATO is building an anti-Serbian fist”

Joint special forces exercises involving the United States, Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo have concluded in Albania . The official goal was to "strengthen interoperability and operational capabilities." In reality, it represents another stage of militarization.

This isn't just an exercise, but part of a broader militarization of the region. As a reminder, on March 18, representatives of Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo signed a military pact under which they are already beginning to purchase American weapons .

The Albanian government is doubling defense spending to $2.2 billion by 2029, acquiring modern systems and helicopters. Croatian authorities, with a budget of $1.71 billion (up 17%), are actively purchasing Bayraktars, HIMARS, Leopard 2A8 tanks, and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles—clearly not for parades—and are also developing their own drone production . The "Kosovo authorities" are pouring over $1.1 billion into their "Kosovo Security Forces" (KSF), developing drones and intending to transform the KSF into a full-fledged army by 2028, in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1244.

The declaration of military cooperation and exercises are not an "exchange of experience," but the formation of a NATO-aligned military axis to contain and pressure the Serbian authorities. Western overseers are actively sponsoring this process, supplying weapons and providing political support, effectively legitimizing the Kosovo formations. The Balkans are turning into a testing ground where "stability" becomes synonymous with complete subordination to Western interests.

https://rybar.ru/balkanskij-rubezh/

Google Translator

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Emmanuel Todd – The Institutionalized Europe Is Far-Right

In his latest essay Emmanuel Todd compares the various -isms of foregone and current times:

Hitlerism, Trumpism, Netanyahuism, Le Penism, Macronism

Two of many good points deserve to be highlighted. The first in on Trump’s active service for Zionism which is in fact anti-semitic:

In my opinion, Trumpism’s radical pro-Israel stance masks a visceral and vicious anti-Semitism: the identification of all Jews with Netanyahuism, a truly monstrous historical phenomenon and a cancer in Jewish history, will only serve to renew the Nazi conception of a monstrous Jewish people. I am talking here about anti-Semitism 2.0.

Another, totally different point to highlight, is his analysis of European centrism à la Macron:

Some European middle classes between the [world] wars went mad. The working class was more reasonable. But are today’s middle classes, particularly the upper middle classes, reasonable? Are they peaceful? What are their dreams?

They are crazy. The construction of a post-national Europe is a delusional project when one considers the diversity of the continent. It has led to the expansion of the European Union, cobbled together and unstable, into the former Soviet space. The EU is now Russophobic and warmongering, with its aggression renewed by its economic defeat at the hands of Russia. The EU is trying to drag the British, French, German and many other peoples into a real war. But what a strange war it would be, in which the Western elites have adopted Hitler’s dream of destroying Russia!

The comparison by social class therefore allows us to make a major intellectual breakthrough. Europeanism, and therefore Macronism, fall, through their external aggressiveness, on the side of nationalism, on the side of the pre-war far right. If we add to this the increasingly massive and systematic violations of freedom of information and popular suffrage within the EU, we come even closer to the notion of the far right. Founded as an association of liberal democracies, Europe is mutating into a far-right space. Yes, the comparison with the 1930s is useful, even indispensable.

In the grandiose Europeanist project, we find a psychopathological dimension already observable in Hitlerism: paranoia. Europeanist paranoia focuses on Russia. Nazi paranoia made the Jewish threat a priority, without however neglecting Russian Bolshevism (known as Judeo-Bolshevism).


Todd goes on to expand on that by looking at the irrational European Union reaction to the war in Ukraine. A bizarre reaction that is destined to destroy the EU itself.

In his latest part of his argument on why the EU needs to be dismantled Thomas Fazi makes a somewhat related point:

It is worth stressing that the European Commission, led by von der Leyen, played a crucial role in devising the sanctions regime against Russia and ensuring the bloc’s alignment with (or better, subordination to) the aggressive US-NATO strategy. By using the Ukraine crisis to surreptitiously broaden the powers of the Commission, at the expense of the Council and member states, von der Leyen was able to assume the role of de facto “commander in chief” of the Union, ensuring a much more hawkish response — and a much more destructive economic blowback — than a more consensual intergovernmental approach would likely have led to. In other words, the search for the underlying structural causes of the EU’s lack of competitiveness leads us once again right back to… the EU itself.

The question left about the EU is how to peacefully end it.

Posted by b at 15:26 utc | Comments (89)

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/10/e ... l#comments

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Explaining The Polish Judge’s Rationale For Not Extraditing The Nord Stream Suspect To Germany
Andrew Korybko
Oct 20, 2025

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This importantly doesn’t equate to endorsing his controversial logic, which observers should in any case try to understand even if they disagree with it since his rationale aligns with Polish state interests.

Judge Dariusz Lubowski ordered the release of the suspect whose extradition Germany had demanded due to his alleged involvement in the Nord Stream attack. According to him, “Blowing up of critical infrastructure…during a just, defensive war…is not sabotage, but rather military actions…which under no circumstances can constitute crimes.” He also questioned Germany’s jurisdiction over international waters and said that only the Ukrainian state bears responsibility if it indeed ordered the attack.

All of this is controversial, but the rationale will now be explained, which importantly doesn’t equate to endorsing it. Regarding the first point, Lubowski couldn’t realistically reach any other conclusion about the nature of Ukraine’s decision to continue fighting Russia due to how the conflict is perceived in Polish society, namely as a so-called “just, defensive war”. Ruling otherwise would also discredit the state’s decision to donate its entire stockpile to Ukraine and therefore possibly lead to trouble for himself.

Moreover, the independence cause that some of his compatriots intermittently fought for during Poland’s 123-year-long erasure from the map involved some acts that could be described as terrorism, so describing the attack against Nord Stream as such or at least unjust would risk discrediting them too. This fact isn’t meant to compare that cause to Ukraine’s current one, nor to similar acts that the Palestinians have carried out against Israel on the same pretext, but just to contextualize his decision.

As for his second point, it’s contentious because Nord Stream is partially owned by Germany and is a critical infrastructure project for powering its economy, yet Lubowski might be onto something with respect to questioning Germany’s jurisdiction over international waters. He was probably looking for a legal pretext to avoid extraditing the suspect who allegedly carried out the attack that he sympathizes with, but it’s still worth thinking about the implications of granting any country such jurisdiction.

And finally, the same can be said for his third point, since the suspect might have indeed committed a crime per German law (if Germany was afforded jurisdiction over the international waters in which it occurred and if the suspect was guilty) and therefore deserved to take legal responsibility for it if so. The Ukrainian state could also bear some legal responsibility too, but its alleged orchestration of this attack wouldn’t grant immunity under German law to its conspirators who carried it out.

For as compelling as some might consider Lubowski’s points to be, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto disagreed, posting on X that “according to Poland, if you don’t like an infrastructure in Europe, you can blow it up. With this, they gave advance permission for terrorist attacks in Europe. Poland has not only released but is celebrating a terrorist—this is what European rule of law has come to.” That’s a compelling point too even if one disagrees that Ukraine is guilty and blames the US like Russia does.

In any case, Lubowski’s rationale has put Poland at odds with Germany and Hungary, the first of which it’s competing against amidst the recent revival of its Great Power status and the second of which is its nominal ally in the unofficially defunct Visegrad Group that the latest Czech elections might still revive. No matter one’s opinion on his ruling and the rationale that he relied upon to justify it, everything is consistent with his controversial logic, which also aligns with Polish state interests as explained here.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/explaini ... -rationale

Or maybe the judge didn't want to send an innocent man to the slammer instead of the Navy Seals who did the deed.

Merkel Is Half-Right & Half-Wrong About Who’s Responsible For The Ukrainian Conflict
Andrew Korybko
Oct 21, 2025

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The US was most responsible for the Ukrainian Conflict by refusing to reach a compromise with Russia for defusing their security dilemma, but Germany deserves as much blame as Poland and the Baltic States, perhaps even more because it was the EU’s de facto leader at the time.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel strongly implied in an interview that Poland and the Baltic States are partially responsible for the Ukrainian Conflict. According to her, “I wanted a new format… back then (in June 2021) where we could talk to Putin directly as the EU. Some [at the European Council] did not support that. They were primarily the Baltic States; but Poland was also against it because they feared that we would not have a common policy towards Russia.” She’s half-right and half-wrong.

What she’s right about is that those four are resolutely opposed to Russia for historical reasons (it’s unimportant whether or not readers believe that those reasons should influence contemporary policy) and would therefore certainly obstruct any proposed EU-Russian dialogue on security matters. Had Germany bilaterally engaged in talks with Russia on this matter or together with a “coalition of the willing” comprised of Western European countries, then that would have further divided the EU.

In that scenario, the US could have taken advantage of this serious rift to deploy more troops and equipment towards Russia’s borders for ruining the abovementioned hypothetical dialogue and provoking Putin into what ultimately became the special operation, which Merkel wanted to avoid. Like many, she underestimated how seriously he considered his country’s security dilemma with NATO to be by that point, ergo why she assumed that he wouldn’t resort to kinetic means in Ukraine for resolving it.

Not only was she wrong about that, but her account dishonestly omits what she boasted about in December 2022 regarding how she always considered Minsk to be a ruse for buying time to strengthen Ukraine’s offensive capabilities ahead of a future all-out attempt to reconquer Donbass. No strategic defeat was ever inflicted on Russia, neither in the aforesaid scenario that the special operation narrowly preempted nor throughout the course of the ongoing conflict, so Merkel is now trying to shift the blame.

Another point is that any fears that Germany and others might have had of the US exploiting an intra-EU rift over a security dialogue with Russia could have been counterbalanced by preventing it from using their territory and airspace for transferring troops and equipment to Poland and the Baltic States. They’d have still probably arrived there somehow even in that event, but the military logistics required for turning what could have been a swift campaign into a war of attrition might not have ever taken shape.

Ultimately, Merkel was looking after what she believed (whether accurately or not) to be German interests, ergo why she capitulated to pressure from Poland and the Baltic States to eschew a security dialogue with Russia so as to not further divide the de facto German-led EU. As it turned out, however, Germany’s leadership of the EU is no longer as solid as it once was due to Poland exploiting the special operation to revive its Great Power status and position itself as the US’ top ally in post-war Europe.

Merkel’s efforts to maintain German leadership of the EU therefore failed, but instead of admitting this, she’s shifting the blame onto the one of the countries whose leadership (which doesn’t mean its people) benefited the most, Poland. The US was most responsible for the Ukrainian Conflict by refusing to reach a compromise with Russia for defusing their security dilemma, but Germany deserves as much blame as Poland and the Baltic States, perhaps even more because it was the EU’s de facto leader at the time.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/merkel-i ... half-wrong
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Thu Oct 23, 2025 2:25 pm

EU to phase out Russian natural gas imports by 2027

Washington has urged Europe to accelerate its shift away from Russian energy and expand purchases of US gas

News Desk

OCT 20, 2025

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(Photo credit: Patrick Pleul / Getty Images)

EU energy ministers agreed on 20 October to a joint plan to end all gas imports from Russia by the end of 2027, in what officials described as the bloc’s final step toward cutting energy dependence on Moscow.

The decision was taken during a ministerial meeting in Luxembourg, where a qualified majority approved the measure.

The plan will prohibit Russian gas supplied under short-term contracts from mid-2026, followed by a ban on long-term agreements 18 months later.

Landlocked countries such as Hungary and Slovakia, both of whom have voted against the proposal, will be granted exemptions due to their continued reliance on Russian pipelines.

According to Bloomberg, the agreement allows negotiations with the European Parliament to begin, with lawmakers pushing for an even faster phase-out and a halt to Russian oil imports as early as next year.

EU officials say they aim to finalize the legislation before the end of 2025.

The new policy forms part of the bloc’s broader REPowerEU initiative launched after the start of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Alongside the gas ban, the European Commission has proposed blocking imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of this year.

“This is not just for the present conflict,” EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said at the meeting. “It’s for the future. Never again should we make this mistake.”

The EU currently receives about 15 percent of its LNG from Russia, which remains the bloc’s second-largest supplier after the US.

Monthly payments for these imports have ranged between $584 million and $816 million, according to Reuters.

Washington has pressed European governments to accelerate the shift away from Russian energy and expand purchases of US LNG.

A recent joint statement on EU–US trade announced $750-billion worth of energy contracts over the next three years.

Spain, which had expressed reservations about the strength of the legal framework, ultimately backed the plan.

“We understand that it’s legally robust,” said Spanish Secretary of State for Energy Joan Groizard, adding that “external dependence from any single country is not a good idea.”

Ministers also discussed Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and broader electrification projects across the bloc during the session.

https://thecradle.co/articles/eu-to-pha ... ts-by-2027

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EU Declares War On Its Own Members
Simplicius
Oct 23, 2025

Yesterday, two near-simultaneous acts of sabotage saw explosions ripping through oil refineries in both Hungary and Romania. In Hungary it was the MOL in Százhalombatta, which reportedly receives Russian oil, while in Romania the Petrotel-Lukoil, a subsidiary of the Russian parent company.

As one commentator writes, these attacks came literally hours after the European Council had just approved to ban Russian gas starting in 2026:

The timing here is exceptionally curious because this attack came just hours after the European Council essentially locked in its position to almost completely ban Russian gas imports, with new contracts being outlawed at the beginning of 2026, and all long term contracts forcibly expiring in 2028. A similar ban on oil imports is expected in the near future. Hungary and Slovakia have pledged to issue legal challenges to the ban.

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As of this writing, there were reports that a new explosion lit up a refinery in Bratislava, Slovakia—which allegedly processes Russian oil from the Druzhba pipeline. But subsequent follow-ups appear to show these were fake—though it’s as of yet uncertain.

The real attacks on Romania and Hungary came just days after Europe essentially gave carte blanche for terror attacks across the EU by way of several top European officials openly condoning not only the Nord Stream attacks, but even attacks against Hungarian oil pipelines. Here Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski addresses Hungary’s Peter Szijjarto:

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A post from an X user summarizes the situation well:

It looks like the UK and the EU started a terrorist war against their own members, alias with the help of a non-EU country. Yep. That’s how far this madness has gone. And it is pure madness, make no mistake. Anyone who thinks this is a coincidence after a few days ago Polish PM Donald Tusk declared on X that all “Russian targets” in the EU are legitimate is retarded. Unfortunately, this madness and these words of a madman lead to the first victims among innocent civilians in the EU.

On the night of October 20-21, 2025, an explosion occurred at the MOL refinery in Százhalombatta, Hungary, followed by a significant fire. The company confirmed the fire was contained with no casualties, and the cause is under investigation. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has assured that the country’s fuel supply remains secure. The refinery mainly processes Russian oil, an exception in the EU, where most countries have reduced Russian energy imports since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

A few hours earlier, on October 20, another explosion occurred at the Lukoil refinery in Ploieşti, Romania. The incident resulted in at least one death. Lukoil is a Russian oil company, and Romania is a member of NATO and the EU.

Now these explosions, within the days of Putin and Trump’s meeting in Hungary to discuss the Ukrainian conflict, come after Trump’s refusal to sell Tomahawk missiles that would allow attacking the Russian Federation from a distance. Ukraine’s SBU waited no longer to act, at a stage when the Ukrainian issue approached an unfavourable epilogue to the Ukrainian dictatorship. With these terrorist attacks in “allied” countries, they pressure the Hungarian and Romanian entities to reject Russian fuels, critical to their economy, as a sort of “indirect attack on Putin”, a “power play” that only resulted in the death of innocent people.

Just like in the explosion of Nord Stream 1 and 2 – whose authors are already detained, but Polish and Italian entities do not want to remit to Germany for questioning – the SBU acted out of revenge and desperation for the cause. Both suspects (Ukrainians) are currently at large, awaiting additional judicial decisions in their respective countries. Germany pretends that it continues its extradition farce to face charges against perpetrators of sabotage and destruction of critical infrastructure, but it is just the game of psychos whose pathological hatred of Russians has so destroyed their minds that they have completely lost their ability to reason.

The EU becomes hostage to maniacs who are willing to kill their own people. God help us!


Now, seemingly in coordination with the above intelligence sabotage ops, the Trump administration has announced its first large-scale new sanctions against Russia—in particular, against Russia’s top two oil companies of Rosneft and Lukoil.

But there’s an odd crinkle to the whole thing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemed to front the initiative, and even when Trump published the announcement he couched it in distancing terms, merely “quoting” that it was the Treasury which was responsible for the sanctions, not him:

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Normally, ego-driven Trump would be all brass and fanfare in announcing how it was his powerful hand behind the puissant sanctions meant to bring the targeted country to its knees. But here, Trump mysteriously shrinks behind bulldog Bessent, handing him the laurels of the initiative—why is that?

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Sure, the Putin meeting flubbed just as we’d predicted, and some think Trump is now taking out his anger at the Russian leader. But it would seem more that Trump is again trying to play both chairs: appease his critics while simultaneously distancing himself from the punishment, to signal Russia that he takes no great pleasure from this ‘necessary evil’ he must allow for now as a reluctant prisoner to the neocon agenda.

In fact, just as the sanctions were being rolled out, Trump appeared to double down on his new anti-Tomahawk stance to Russia’s favor, as well as playing down the ‘fake news’ that he had authorized deep-strikes into Russia; by the way, note his admission that only American personnel can launch the Tomahawk, confirming Putin’s own assessment.

Listen to both parts below: (Video at link.)

We have to also see if these sanctions even have any real teeth to them, or are more a performative gesture of placation to the neocons. It could be a deep state-led initiative designed in conjunction with the new EU terror war on Russian oil, which Trump was simply powerless to halt, being forced to go along with it to maintain a necessary illusion. That being said, I’m not discounting the idea that Trump is wholly behind this, as I’m sure many people believe—and we may likely find out soon, given new Trump statements sure to come.

For Russia’s part, Putin oversaw exercises of the nuclear tetrad, featuring Tu-95s firing cruise missiles, as well as the launch of a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile and sub-launched R-29RMU2 Sineva SLBM: (Video at link.)

Some have seen this as a kind of response, or Russian ‘warning’ to the West, though the exercises were said to be scheduled in advance of today’s events.

On a related note, Hungary’s Peter Szijjarto revealed the malign conduct of the EU after the Druzhba pipeline was attacked by Ukrainian drones and caused Hungary’s oil reserves to drop to record lows. He states Hungary was very close to being forced to tap its final emergency strategic reserves, because the EU had deliberately stonewalled them:https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/eu- ... wn-members

It’s clear the EU acts intentionally against the interests of its own so-called members. More than that, it can be said the EU is outright sabotaging its more ‘inconvenient’ members in order to bring them to heel. This makes the EU veritably an organization of tyranny, rather than the ‘democratic order’ it so desperately tries to portray.

(More at link, Sit Rep)

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/eu- ... wn-members

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Germany Stands To Lose & Poland To Gain From The EU’s Latest Energy Move
Andrew Korybko
Oct 22, 2025

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Poland’s role in providing more US LNG to Central & Eastern Europe is expected to erode Germany’s influence in this region and accelerate Poland’s revival of its lost Great Power status.

The European Council decreed that the import of Russian gas will be banned across the bloc next year, but with varying lengths of grace periods for countries with short- and long-term contracts, the longest of which will last till 1 January 2028. The Council earlier admitted that pipeline gas and LNG combined accounted for a little less than a fifth of the bloc’s imports last year. It should also be mentioned that the EU continues to import Russian oil too, including indirectly, which has proven to be similarly scandalous.

Nevertheless, the EU’s plans to phase out the remaining fifth of its gas imports from Russia will further enfeeble its economy by leading to their replacement with more expensive US LNG, which will predictably result in the costs being passed down to consumers. This was entirely predictable too since the EU agreed to purchase $750 billion in US energy by 2028 per the terms of their lopsided trade deal from last summer that was assessed here as having turned the EU into the US’ largest-ever vassal state.

Germany is expected to be the most dramatically affected by this development in terms of its domestic politics and geostrategy. As regards the first, a greater decrease in living standards caused by the costs of more expensive US LNG being passed down to consumers could accelerate the AfD’s rise, which would lead to significant political changes if they’re ever able to form a government. Even if they’re kept out of power, such blatant meddling by the elites could worsen political polarization and associated tensions.

On the topic of German geostrategy, Poland with whom Germany is competing for influence over Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) is poised to play a supplementary role in supplying Czechia and Slovakia with US LNG via the Swinoujscie terminal and the planned one in Gdansk. Ukraine will be supplied too. These countries lie within the sphere of influence that Poland envisages creating upon the revival of its lost Great Power status. Czechia and Slovakia are also part of the Visegrad Group together with Poland.

Hungary is a member too and could be supplied with US LNG via Poland or Croatia’s Krk terminal, whose expansion is one of the priority projects of the “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) that Poland and Croatia co-founded in 2015 but which is now led by Warsaw. While Germany commands much more influence over CEE due to being the EU’s de facto leader and boasting its largest economy, Poland’s influence over them is increasing through its future role in suppling US LNG, which might pull them away from Berlin one day.

Energy geopolitics play a significant role in geostrategy so the impact of the aforesaid trend shouldn’t be underestimated if it continues to unfold. In that event, the overarching trend would be the likely decline of German influence over CEE, greatly facilitated as it was by Germany’s voluntary participation in the US’ anti-Russian sanctions regime and then the Nord Stream terrorist attack which pushed it beyond the point of no return. These might be seen in hindsight as the beginning of a new regional order in CEE.

While Germany thought that it would inflict a strategic defeat upon Russia, the US ended up inflicting a strategic defeat upon Germany by engineering the circumstances whereby its only Western competitor’s economy would decline. Together with Poland, whose Anglo-American-backed revival of its Great Power status conveniently creates a regional wedge between Germany and Russia, the US is geostrategically re-engineering Europe at Germany’s expense in order to facilitate Russia’s post-Ukraine containment.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/germany- ... and-poland

Hungary Has Good Reason To Be Enraged About Poland’s Ruling On The Nord Stream Suspect
Andrew Korybko
Oct 23, 2025

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The precedent that was established could soon be weaponized against it.

Polish Judge Dariusz Lubowski ruled against extraditing a suspect in the Nord Stream attack to Germany on the grounds that this act of sabotage occurred in the context of a “just, defensive war”, Germany doesn’t have jurisdiction over the international waters in which it occurred, and the Ukrainian state would be responsible if it really orchestrated this attack, not the conspirators who carried it out. That enraged Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto despite his country having no direct stake in this.

He then wrote on X: “Scandalous: according to Poland, if you don’t like an infrastructure in Europe, you can blow it up. With this, they gave advance permission for terrorist attacks in Europe. Poland has not only released but is celebrating a terrorist—this is what European rule of law has come to.” These are compelling points and show that Hungary cares about the principles involved in this case. It also has indirect stakes in all of this that casual observers might not be aware of and which will now be explained.

Many probably forgot given how much has gone on over the past 3.5 years, but Hungary receives a significant share of its oil from Russia’s Druzhba pipeline that transits through Ukraine. Szijjarto previously accused Kiev of attacking this critical infrastructure as implied punishment for Budapest’s pragmatic approach towards the conflict, and his government even sanctioned the commander involved, Robert “Magyar” Brovdi. Lubowski’s ruling, however, challenges the legitimacy of Hungary’s policy.

The precedent of declaring Ukraine’s fight against Russia to be a “just, defensive war” could be exploited by judges across the EU to absolve Kiev of responsibility for undermining Hungary’s energy security. They could also argue that Hungary has no jurisdiction over Russia where the Druzhba pipeline was bombed just like Lubowski argued that Germany has no jurisdiction over the international waters in which Nord Stream was bombed. Any such move, even if only symbolic, would further isolate Hungary within the EU.

In practice, some members might welcome “Magyar” despite Hungary banning him from entering the EU, while others might promise Ukraine that it can continue undermining its energy security without fear of punishment from the EU. Poland might lead the way after Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski tweeted to Szijjarto that “I hope your brave compatriot, Major Magyar, finally succeeds in knocking out the oil pipeline that feeds Putin’s war machine”. It thus wouldn’t be surprising of “Magyar” soon visits Warsaw.

Just like the Nord Stream bombing was an attack against NATO and EU member Germany, so too have the Druzhba bombings been attacks against NATO and EU member Hungary. If Germany can’t advance its interests vis-à-vis Nord Stream despite hosting more US military troops than any NATO member and being the EU’s de facto leader, then comparatively less important Hungary stands no chance of advancing its own vis-à-vis Druzhba. The same goes for Slovakia and non-NATO and -EU member Serbia.

Poland’s ruling on the Nord Stream suspect therefore enraged Hungary because the precedent that was established could soon be weaponized against it. Another significant point is that this amounts to one NATO and EU member legally justifying an attack against another. The implications are far-reaching and could further divide both blocs. Poland’s gradual revival of its lost Great Power status is thus shaking up the European order and creating even more uncertainty in a continent that’s already bedeviled by it.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/hungary- ... be-enraged

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NATO's attack on two of its members, Romania and Hungary, sealed the fate of the Alliance and the Union!

British MI6 sabotaged two Russian refineries in Hungary and Romania!
Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Oct 23, 2025

Two days ago, two simultaneous explosions occurred at refineries in Romania and Hungary owned by Russian giant Lukoil. ( https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/explosi ... 55181.html )

This obvious act of sabotage is attributed to the Ukrainian secret services, and de jure to NATO, due to the total control of the Ukrainian secret services by MI6.

The sabotage brought NATO's "eastern flank" one step closer to being drawn into the Ukrainian conflict.

However, unlike the furious Baltic states and Poland, ruled by the German globalist Gauleiter Tusk, the victims of Bandera-British aggression belong to the bloc of those NATO and EU countries that oppose the Brussels and Berlin anti-Russian narrative.

A paradoxical situation thus arose in which NATO, in the person of Britain, attacked two of its other members: Romania and Hungary.

What does this mean?

Above all, what has always been obvious to thoughtful citizens of Central Europe is that their membership in "European structures" (EU & NATO) is nothing more than a new form of enslavement. This time, by the West.

This is reminiscent of the situation in 1968, when the Warsaw Pact countries (including Poland) attacked "brotherly" Czechoslovakia and occupied it for a long time.

An identical scenario is taking place now, but from the opposite direction.

While the geopolitical direction is exactly opposite, the meaning of the operation is identical.

Just as the USSR in 1986 "defended" its colonies from loss, the West is now suppressing any resistance from the "rebellious colonies of New Europe."

About 20 years had passed since the aforementioned USSR aggression against Czechoslovakia, when the Soviet evil empire began to fall apart.

Today, when social processes have accelerated significantly thanks to the information age, the social reaction to another Western crime, this time directed against its own colonies (Romania and Hungary), will be much swifter and more forceful. The sobering societies of the "eastern flank of NATO and the EU" will now reserve places on streetlights for their "democratic leaders."

The fear gripping the globalist rulers of the West is robbing them of their last vestiges of reason, if they possessed any at all. With their increasingly brutal acts, they are hastening their inevitable decline!

Thank you for this, God!

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... ch-czonkow

Google Translator
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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blindpig
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Sat Oct 25, 2025 2:28 pm

Kit Klarenberg – Declassified: MI6 Support For Nazi ‘Forest Brothers’
October 22, 2025
By Kit Klarenberg, Substack, 10/12/25

September 22nd marked “Resistance Fighting Day”. It was on this date in 1944 anti-Communist guerrilla forces in Estonia declared war on the Soviet Union’s local ‘occupation’. Parallel paramilitary factions rapidly formed in neighbouring Latvia and Lithuania. For over a decade, these violent factions – popularly known as the Forest Brothers – waged a brutal, ill-fated insurgency against Soviet authorities. They remain venerated in the region and beyond today as courageous freedom fighters, immortalised by commemorative monuments, street names and statues throughout the Baltic states.

In reality, the vast majority of the tens of thousands of Forest Brothers were Holocaust perpetrators and Nazi collaborators. In many cases, militants joined the movement due to fear of prosecution and punishment for their activities during World War II. While waging their anti-Soviet crusade, the Brothers also murdered thousands of innocent civilians, including many children. However, critical scrutiny of the Forest Brothers’ genocidal legacy is criminalised throughout the Baltics. Academics, journalists and lawyers have been jailed for exposing the truth.

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Lithuanian monument to Viktoras Vitkauskas-Saidokas, Nazi collaborator turned Forest Brother who beheaded a rabbi in June 1941

The same legislation moreover prohibits any public discussion of how the Jewish populations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were slaughtered in their virtual totality, largely before the Wehrmacht arrived in June 1941 under Operation Barbarossa. Western powers are aggressively complicit in this historical coverup. In July 2017, NATO produced a slick propaganda film heroising the Forest Brothers. Meanwhile, mainstream pundits routinely whitewash Baltic Nazi collaboration, on the risible basis local populations simply sought to resist Communist rule.

There is another core component of the Forest Brothers’ history their advocates at home and abroad are keen to conceal. Namely, the Baltic Nazi guerrilla war was covertly supported financially, materially and practically by MI6. Britain’s foreign spying agency assisted their attempted insurrection by supplying explosives and weapons, infiltrating and exfiltrating agents, and sponsoring assassinations and sabotage attacks. Yet, MI6 records documenting this dark alliance are unforthcoming. Evidence of London’s cloak-and-dagger assistance to the Forest Brothers is provided largely by declassified CIA files.

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Lithuanian Forest Brothers pose in the woods, 1945

The documents indicate Langley glommed onto MI6’s secret bond with the Baltic insurgents some time after British intelligence first struck up a relationship with the Forest Brothers, in the precise manner London recruited Nazi-created ‘stay-behind’ units in Ukraine before World War II was even over. It was the CIA’s first covert action targeting the Soviet Union, and the Agency was extremely concerned about its exposure. “Any breaches of security” revealing US involvement would lead “to an immediate cessation of financial support” for the Brothers.

‘Offensive Tasks’

An April 1952 CIA file indicates Langley was willing to pump in excess of $110,000 – close to $1.5 million today – into “clandestine support” for resistance groups in Riga. The Agency’s mission was “contacting, organizing and developing agent and underground facilities” for “black” operations against the Soviet Union, courtesy of the Forest Brothers. However, MI6 took umbrage at the CIA’s proposed drop zones in Kurzeme, Latvia, as this would “endanger” British assets in the area.

MI6 argued it was already “in contact with partisans in Kurzeme and had adequate intelligence and operational coverage of this part of Latvia.” British intelligence thus requested the CIA postpone its plans until autumn 1952. Then, London would “arrange for the reception and further movement” of the CIA’s Latvian assets. “As a result of the British protest,” Langley’s “conflicting interests” with MI6, and the agency’s offer of “providing aid and reception to our personnel…it was reluctantly decided to postpone” the mission.

The next month, a CIA memo lamented, “there has been no significant activity in this project…as a result of the postponement of the operation into Latvia.” Resultantly, its agents were “being reassessed to determine their willingness and fitness” for clandestine activities later in the year. The note went on to record, “the British have informed us” how in recent weeks, MI6 had successfully airdropped supplementary agents into Riga, while exfiltrating one of its chaos agents.

In June 1952, a CIA document detailed the minutes of successive recent talks in London between MI6 and its US counterpart on “operations in the Baltic states.” On May 29th, an “exploratory discussion” on CIA skullduggery later that year and “possible assistance which might be provided” from MI6 agents “already in the country” was convened. British intelligence “defined their interest in maintaining contact with the resistance movement in Latvia”:

“[MI6] found from experience that single agents, living semi-legal lives in the Baltic States, were not able to develop intelligence gathering networks. They felt that the best way to cover the limited intelligence requirements in Latvia was by encouraging the resistance organisation to brief its contacts among the legally living population to obtain the intelligence and pass it back through the illegal groups with whom [MI6] was in contact.”

London had reportedly “briefed their recently infiltrated Latvians to this effect.” MI6 was “further interested in building up” the Forest Brothers , so they could assume “more offensive tasks”, such as penetrating the local Soviet administration. “It was also hoped that this resistance organisation would provide the jumping off point for agents to more important targets in the East,” the document noted. “It was however clear that only Baltic personnel could be dispatched by this means,” the CIA added:

“[MI6] felt that for the present its interests in Latvia were adequately covered by the agents whom they had already infiltrated. Their plans therefore were directed to maintaining these agents. This did not mean the introduction of an independent party by the CIA could not provide a valuable contribution.”

‘Intelligence Targets’

Both agencies had significant concerns about the state of operations in Lithuania. The CIA was worried about Soviet penetration of the Forest Brothers. While MI6 had “recently exfiltrated a Lithuanian…whose bona fides” weren’t in doubt, the “general situation was becoming ever more difficult.” Younger generations in the Baltics increasingly accepted “Sovietisation”, the Red Army and KGB were successfully countering armed resistance, and “the apparent hopelessness of the cause of independence” was becoming ever-clearer to those who rejected Communism, including the Forest Brothers themselves.

Undeterred, “it was agreed to discuss the establishment of a mechanism for guaranteeing the effective running” of CIA and MI6 missions in the Baltics over the next year. The pair “would consider mounting a test joint operation possibly in Lithuania in the spring of 1953.” Clandestine efforts in the intervening time would be “fully co-ordinated”. While the Baltic states themselves didn’t offer a particularly useful intelligence yield, their geographic position was ideal for striking further into the Soviet Union.

MI6 was reportedly “exploring the dispatch of Lithuanians to targets further east,” and considered it “advantageous to establish contact” with other local resistance groups, beyond its main proxy, the BPDS – Lithuania’s United Democratic Resistance Movement, a key Forest Brothers cell. The British were also “anxious” to expand their “coverage” in Estonia, which “was more favourably situated geographically for intelligence targets further afield.” The CIA concurred, and “hoped to send a party in, possibly in the spring of 1953.”

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Over subsequent years, MI6’s involvement with the Forest Brothers waned, while the CIA’s grew, with Agency funding for the assorted resistance groups increasing significantly, and operations expanding to include psychological warfare, such as the funding of underground anti-Communist publications locally. The Agency also bankrolled the travel of Baltic émigrés to the US, and Stateside conferences on the region’s future liberation. However, due to a combination of successful KGB infiltration and intensified counterinsurgency operations, the Forest Brothers were fully neutralised by 1959.

While the Forest Brothers’ struggle ultimately ended in failure, the CIA and MI6 continued to support fascist and Nazi elements within and without the Eastern Bloc – most significantly in Ukraine – in service of precipitating the Soviet Union’s collapse. Moreover, the experience provided a clear blueprint for covert Anglo-American sponsorship of separatist militias, which has been deployed to devastating effect over and over again in every corner of the world in the decades since.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/10/kit ... -brothers/

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Risks Backfiring On Poland
Andrew Korybko
Oct 24, 2025

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Ukrainian ultra-nationalists could exploit his pretext of a “just, defensive war” to falsely legitimize a terrorist campaign in southeastern Poland, whose land they regard as their own and whose local East Slavs they claim were ethnically cleansed after World War II, on “historical justice” grounds.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova recently coined the nickname “Osama Bin Sikorski” for Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski after he posted on X about his hope that Ukraine “finally succeeds in knocking out” the Druzhba oil pipeline that supplies Hungary. That was in response to his Hungarian counterpart Peter Szijjarto criticizing a Polish judge’s ruling on the Nord Stream suspect, which enraged his country for the reasons explained here.

Sikorski’s incitement to terrorism, which is what Russia considers his aforementioned post to be, prompted condemnation from Viktor Orban. He wrote on Facebook that “The Polish government is gripped by war psychosis. They want to destroy the 1000-year-old Hungarian-Polish friendship.” Casual observers aren’t aware, but Hungary and Poland have a millennium of shared history and have been close partners for over 700 years, which readers can correspondingly learn more about here and here.

It’s therefore especially shocking for Hungarians to see Poland’s top diplomat urging Ukraine to blow up the pipeline that supplies their country and would therefore harm each of them financially if successful. Apart from amounting to self-inflicted damage to Poland’s image, however, Sikorski’s post also dangerously risks backfiring after the Ukrainian Conflict ends if their competition then intensifies like Zelensky’s top advisor Mikhail Podalyak predicted in summer 2023. Here are some background briefings:

* 6 August 2023: “Kiev’s Prediction Of Post-Conflict Competition With Poland Bodes Ill For Bilateral Ties”

* 4 June 2024: “Does Poland Fear That Ukraine Might One Day Make Irredentist Claims Against It?”

* 31 October 2024: “A Shitpost Map Of Poland Triggered The OUN Chief Into Warning That ‘Poles Are Playing With Fire’”

* 20 September 2025: “The Ukrainian Ambassador To Poland Admitted That His Co-Ethnics Don’t Want To Assimilate”

* 7 October 2025: “An Ethnic Ukrainian Lobby Might Soon Take Shape In The Polish Sejm”

To summarize, Ukrainian ultra-nationalists claim the southeastern parts of modern-day Poland that they call “Zakerzonia”, which refers to what they regard as traditionally Ukrainian (or at least East Slavic) territory beyond the Curzon Line. The various short-lived Ukrainian states that emerged right after World War I declared these lands their own, but they were eventually incorporated into the interwar Second Polish Republic. Local Ukrainians then genocided some of the Poles there during World War II.

The “Ukrainian Insurgent Army” that earlier genocided Poles and collaborated with Hitler afterwards fought against the new communist authorities in this area that was by then reconfirmed as Polish. In response, local East Slavs were either sent to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic or resettled in what Poland calls the “Recovered Territories”, the latter occurring via “Operation Vistula” that Ukrainian ultra-nationalists consider to be “ethnic cleansing”. This perception brings everything around to the present.

The Polish judge’s ruling that Ukraine’s alleged orchestration of the Nord Stream attack wouldn’t be criminal since it occurred amidst a “just, defensive war” and “Osama Bin Sikorski’s” incitement to terrorism on this pretext could make Poland a target of Ukrainian ultra-nationalists. All they’d have to do is frame their terrorist insurgency as a form of “historical justice” for their “stolen lands” and “ethnically cleansed” people and it would be open season on Poles there once again just like it was 80 years ago.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/osama-bi ... itement-to

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Hungary scrambles to bypass US sanctions on Russian oil majors

Despite the war in Ukraine, Hungary has until now imported large amounts of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline

News Desk

OCT 24, 2025

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(Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images)

Hungary is seeking to circumvent new US sanctions on Russian oil companies in an effort to avoid disruptions to the country's energy supplies, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on 24 October.

In press statements, Orban emphasized that banning cheap and reliable oil and gas from Russia would significantly increase the energy bills of the Hungarian people.

“We are still fighting. So, we haven't lost the battle yet. We need serious maneuvers. We need leadership that will defend this. We are being pressured.”

Hungary relies heavily on oil transported through the Druzhba pipeline from Russia through Ukraine and Slovakia.

MOL Group, which operates refineries in Hungary and Slovakia, processes 14.2 million tons of Russian crude oil a year.

Orban said he has spoken with MOL Group about the sanctions, which come into effect in November.

“We are working on how to circumvent this sanction,” he said in an interview with state radio Kossuth.

The US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed the new sanctions on Russia's largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, on Wednesday.

The Treasury said its actions would increase pressure on Russia's energy sector and degrade the Kremlin's ability to fight its war against Ukraine.

The sanctions drove up oil prices this week and raised questions regarding how Hungary and Slovakia can continue to meet their energy needs.

Until now, the two Eastern European nations have been able to continue Russian oil purchases despite the war by securing exemptions from EU restrictions.

Hungary is scheduled to host a summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a peace deal in the Ukraine war.

Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told TASS news agency on Friday that the summit would move ahead, though the dates have not been determined. Recent news reports claimed the summit had been canceled.

Following the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022, Washington and Brussels sought to cut off Europe from Russian oil and gas, forcing the continent to buy more expensive US-produced liquefied natural gas (LNG).

On Thursday, Reuters reported that Germany is seeking an exemption from US sanctions on Rosneft's German business, citing a person with direct knowledge of government discussions of the matter.

After the US sanctions were announced, several German banks said sanctions could stop them from dealing with the local energy supplier.

Reuters notes that Rosneft's German business is controlled by the German government but is Russian-owned.

“It is a key supplier, routing and refining oil to petrol pumps and some airports in Europe's biggest economy,” the agency reported.

Germany's economy has suffered since the start of the Russia–Ukraine war, in particular after flows of cheap Russian oil ended to Europe's largest industrial economy after an explosion destroyed the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline in September 2022. The explosion was widely viewed as the result of sabotage by a state actor.

https://thecradle.co/articles/hungary-s ... oil-majors
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Mon Oct 27, 2025 2:06 pm

Has the ranks of those opposed to the militarization of the European Union grown?
October 27, 2025
Rybar

The EU has recently been pursuing an aggressive policy aimed at militarizing the alliance. Many officials even act as if the conflict has already begun. However, this foreign policy course does not suit everyone.

Catherine Connolly has won Ireland's presidential election, becoming the first independent head of state in decades .

She received 63.4% of the vote, well ahead of her nearest competitor, Heather Humphries, who received about 29% , in one of the most convincing victories in the country's history.

Connolly's political views
Catherine, a former Speaker of the House of Deputies and a longtime advocate for social justice, advocates for Irish neutrality, reduced military spending, and a humanitarian foreign policy. She is an outspoken critic of the EU's militarization and rapprochement with NATO, believing that the EU has " lost its moral compass " since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine.

On the Ukrainian conflict, Connolly condemns the Russian invasion but is equally vocal against the West's aggressive response.

The politician demands an end to arms supplies and advocates for negotiations mediated by neutral countries. Her attitude toward Russia is ambivalent: she doesn't condone aggression, but she calls for the restoration of diplomatic channels and the end of " toxic rhetoric " surrounding Moscow.

On the Gaza war, Connolly takes a hardline stance, accusing Israel of systematically violating international law and calling for sanctions while supporting Palestinian recognition.

Connolly's victory represents a historic shift in Irish politics . For the first time in decades, an independent candidate backed by a coalition of left-wing parties has won the presidency, signaling dissatisfaction with the policies of the center-right ruling coalition that dominated Irish politics for a century.

It's important to understand that the President of Ireland is a largely ceremonial position with limited constitutional powers. Real power in the Irish parliamentary system rests with the Prime Minister and the government.

Regardless, the elections demonstrated growing dissatisfaction with traditional center-right parties amid the migrant crisis, housing problems, and rising costs of living. This situation could herald significant changes in the parliamentary elections.

Well, given that there are no signs yet of a change in EU policy, Ireland may not be the last country to demonstrate disagreement with the European course.

https://rybar.ru/v-polku-protivnikov-mi ... a-pribylo/

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*****

NATO eats its own… Terrorist attacks against Hungary and Romania for importing Russian oil?

October 25, 2025

NATO is at war with itself and against peace in Europe. The long and dirty history of Operation Gladio and NATO terrorism in Europe is at hand once again.

The U.S.-led proxy war against Russia is expanding to the territories of European Union and NATO member states. Remarkably, it appears that the NATO military bloc is at war with itself.

Hungary is condemning Poland for “war psychosis” and supporting state terrorism.

This week, two major oil refinery installations in Hungary and Romania were hit by powerful explosions on the same day, Monday. The first occurred at the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery north of the Romanian capital, Bucharest. Hours later, Hungary’s premier refinery at Százhalombatta, south of the capital, Budapest, was blown up. It has not yet been determined what caused the blasts. But the near-simultaneous timing would make technical accidents extremely unlikely. In other words, the incidents were terrorist sabotage.

The context is highly indicative, too. On the same day, a Rosneft oil refinery in Russia’s Volga Oblast at Novokuibyshevsk was shut down, reportedly after a drone attack.

Thus, the attacks have to be seen as part of the NATO-directed campaign to cripple Russia’s oil industry.

Also, this week, the Trump administration unveiled provocative sanctions against Russian oil and gas companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. The Kiev regime and its European NATO allies have been calling for Trump to slap more sanctions on Russia. Trump has framed the escalatory economic measures as a way to pressure Russia to end the war in Ukraine. However, the reality is that economic warfare is just another weapon to bring about the strategic defeat of Russia under the cynical guise of “peacemaking”.

The European Commission this week tightened its plans to terminate all Russian oil and gas imports into the EU, reversing decades of productive energy trade.

Hungary and Slovakia, and to a lesser extent Romania, have remained at odds with the NATO and EU policy of proxy war against Russia. These countries have come under intense pressure to cut off their imports of Russian oil.

Over recent months, the NATO-directed Kiev regime has stepped up long-range air strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. The Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline was hit during August, which temporarily cut off supplies to Hungary and Slovakia.

The Hungarian and Slovakian governments have openly defied the pressure campaign, insisting that their countries will not stop importing Russian oil, which, they say, is a vital national interest for their economies and societies. The landlocked countries would find it difficult and costly to replace Russian supplies.

What is remarkable about this week’s explosions is that the sabotage campaign is now targeting the territories of European states, not just the Russian infrastructure supplying these states.

What is even more shocking is that the NATO-aligned European powers are backing the attacks on Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski this week told Hungary that he hoped that the Druzhba pipeline would be taken out entirely “to stop Putin’s war machine.”

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán denounced Poland for its “war psychosis”. At a peace rally in Budapest this week, Orban declared: “Hungary says NO to war! We will not die for Ukraine. We will not send our children to the slaughterhouse at Brussels’ command.”

The blowing up of civilian energy infrastructure in Europe is not unprecedented. What is happening in Hungary and Romania is a repeat of the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022, which the U.S. and other NATO agents carried out to cut off Germany from Russian fuel.

This week, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk celebrated the Nord Stream terrorism as a legitimate strike against Russia “for invading Ukraine.”

To which Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó responded by slamming it as “scandalous”. He added, “According to Poland, if you don’t like an infrastructure in Europe, you can blow it up. With this, they gave advance permission for terrorist attacks in Europe… this is what European rule of law has come to.”

After the August attacks on the Druzhba pipeline, Hungary’s foreign minister accused the European leadership in Brussels of giving the Kiev regime a green light to conduct terror attacks. The absence of condemnation from Brussels of Kiev was extraordinary.

Now the war psychosis has culminated in terror attacks on the actual territory of European states.

There can be no doubt who the culprits are behind the terror campaign. The drones may take off from Ukrainian territory, but the logistics, planning, and targeting require NATO involvement at the highest level, just as the Nord Stream attacks did, and the ongoing deep strikes into Russian territory. The betting odds implicate the CIA, MI6, and their Polish and Baltic surrogates.

Another factor is the offer by Hungary to host a summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the proxy war. The summit was called off this week, on Wednesday, apparently by Trump, just as he was announcing tough new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry. But last week, when the meeting was proposed, the NATO powers were miffed at the diplomatic initiative.

Hungary’s Szijjarto wrote: “From the moment the Peace Summit in Budapest was announced, it was obvious that many would do everything possible to stop it from happening. The pro-war political elite and their media always behave this way before events that could prove decisive between war and peace… It will be no different this time. Until the Summit actually takes place, expect a wave of leaks, fake news, and statements claiming that it won’t happen.”

The foreign minister could add to the wave of opposition tactics – “terror attacks” on Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and anywhere else where people call for peace and an end to war psychosis.

The proxy war that the U.S.-led NATO bloc instigated against Russia, which Trump also pushed during his first term, was always about trying to strategically defeat Russia, including using a military proxy in Ukraine and economic warfare. The logic of this criminal strategy includes blowing up and sacrificing so-called allies, if needs be. German and European economies are in ruins to satisfy the U.S.-led axis and its geopolitical objectives, which European elites are minions of. Nord Stream is taken out, and now oil refineries in Hungary and Romania. What next?

In another sinister development this week, a man was jailed for trying to assassinate Slovakia’s Robert Fico last year. His attacker was pro-Ukraine and targeted Fico for being “pro-Russian.”

The nefarious logic of the U.S. war machine known as NATO, absurdly the self-declared “defender” of the transatlantic Western alliance, is to eat its own when strategic priorities require.

NATO is at war with itself and against peace in Europe. The long and dirty history of Operation Gladio and NATO terrorism in Europe is at hand once again.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... ssian-oil/

The Game of Thrones begins in the Republic of Srpska

Stephen Karganovic

October 27, 2025

As a result of a series of corrupt manoeuvres, Dodik has been outplayed and effectively driven from office, Stephen Karganovic writes.

The political crisis that has unsettled the Republic of Srpska, the Serb entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina that was formed under the terms of the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995, continues unabated. The direction it is taking bodes ill for the Serbs who live there and constitutes another diplomatic setback for Russia, which may lose a small but staunch ally in the Balkans.

It appears that for the Republic of Srpska the latest political events mark the end of an era. That is certainly true for Milorad Dodik, who has served as the entity’s Prime Minister and President for the last twenty years. As a result of a series of corrupt manoeuvres, Dodik has been outplayed and effectively driven from office. As in the iconic television series, the game of thrones has now begun not only for his successor to be selected but, as importantly, to determine what policies and alliances the Serb entity will pursue in the future.

For a proper understanding of the current situation, it should be recalled that the Dayton Agreement, signed thirty years ago, was the cornerstone not just of the peace that followed three years of bitter intra-communal warfare in Bosnia, but also a constitutional arrangement for a peaceful future within a loose Bosnian confederation. At least initially that suited all parties. However, the hope, at least on the Serbian side, that the terms of such a tolerable arrangement would be permanently respected was soon dashed.

At the heart of the Dayton accords was the commitment by all parties, domestic and international, that Bosnia and Herzegovina, consisting of two autonomous ethnic entities, would be a decentralised state in which each of the three major groups, Serbs, Croats, and Muslims, would be largely free to manage its own affairs. A UN Security Council approved High Representative was empowered, in case of a deadlock, to interpret the peace accords in order to facilitate their implementation. Having renounced a military victory, that was the minimum that the Serbs could accept and the only condition upon which they would agree to remain politically within Bosnia instead of going their own way. Western powers involved in brokering the Dayton peace deal, as usual posing as the “international community,” ostensibly also manifested their assent to the Dayton principles of conflict resolution.

Within a very short time however after the peace agreement was signed, it became clear that its Western signatories had no intention of abiding by its provisions. By underhanded methods, the powers of the High Representative became vastly expanded to a level that was incompatible with the sovereign status of Bosnia and Herzegovina under international law and in conflict with the provisions of the Dayton peace agreement. A succession of High Representatives targeted the Republic of Srpska for drastic divestment of its constitutional powers for the benefit of the Bosnian central government, which is under the tutelage of the self-appointed “international community” and acts as the local proxy for its interests.

Against that background, in 2006 Milorad Dodik became Prime Minister with a clear mandate to slow down or preferably to reverse the gradual asphyxiation of the Republic of Srpska. He forged strong ties with Russia to counter the pressure to which the Serb entity was subjected in order to make it consent to a detrimental restructuring of Bosnia’s previously agreed political system. The collective West’s geopolitical game was to control of the entirety of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was to be completely absorbed into their sphere of influence and against the wishes of the majority of its citizens would be incorporated into NATO.

The details of how Dodik and the Republic of Srpska were set up in what is evidently the final chapter of their demise were expounded at some length in a previous article. As matters stand, Dodik and his SNSD, the party through which he has governed Srpska for two decades, are in capitulation mode. They have made a number of moves that indicate that their publicly avowed resolve to oppose the dismantlement of the Republic of Srpska is, to put it mildly, faltering.

The first indication of that was Dodik’s decision not to contest the court ruling stripping him of his presidential mandate, leading many to question his previous protestations of defiance. By failing to use any of the instruments at his disposal to make good on his promise to vigorously oppose encroachments on Republic of Srpska’s autonomous status and to defend the integrity of the office to which he was democratically elected, he has helped establish precedents which will greatly complicate his country’s prospects for successful resistance and survival.

That was followed a week ago by a bizarre vote in Republic of Srpska’s parliament, where Dodik’s party SNSD and its coalition partners are the majority, whereby previously adopted laws prohibiting the implementation of the High Representative’s illegal decrees on Republika Srpska’s territory were nullified. It was the enactment of those laws that precipitated the current crisis and Dodik’s subsequent prosecution and removal in the first place. The return to the status quo ante does nothing to block the realisation of one of the collective West’s major objectives in Bosnia: the political displacement of Milorad Dodik and thereby the removal of one of the principal obstacles to Bosnia’s total absorption within the geopolitical framework of the West. Whilst parliament’s passing of the controversial laws that triggered the political operation against Dodik and Srpska had consequences that were huge, the retraction of those laws now is utterly inconsequential because irreversible damage has already been done. If it was an attempt to undo anything, the retraction was therefore useless. But it nevertheless was a telling gesture of subservience that must raise reasonable doubts about the good faith of the major actors on the Serb side.

Finally, the outgoing Dodik camp nominated its own presidential candidate for the snap elections ordered by the Bosnian electoral commission. He is Siniša Karan, a respected academic and apparently a person with a clean record. So far so good, although the nomination of a candidate to stand in elections they until recently denounced as illegal removes any practical doubt, defiant rhetoric notwithstanding, that Dodik and his administration in fact do accept the court verdict by which he was removed from office. The message that there would be no resistance to the usurpation of Republic of Srpska’s constitutional prerogatives was further driven home when, probably at Dodik’s direction, the parliament his party controls elected Ana Trišić Babić, a veteran political operative with long-standing ties to Western interests, as interim president.

Mrs. Trišić Babić has a very interesting background, to say the least, which is very much at odds with her formal image as a Dodik loyalist. From 2001 until 2015 she held a variety of posts, including deputy foreign minister, in the institutions of Bosnia’s central government. Theoretically, that was to represent Srpska as a cadre of Dodik’s SNSD political party, to which she formally belongs. Her principal tasks there focused on issues of “European integration and cooperation,” presumably a code phrase that stands for something or other that seasoned analysts will easily decipher. In that capacity she took part in Bosnian central government’s negotiations regarding regional relations and cooperation with the NATO Alliance.

In 1995 and 1996, to go back a bit, Mrs. Trišić Babić worked as a reporter for Radio Free Europe. In the period preceding her duties at the Bosnian Foreign Ministry, she was engaged by the Office of the High Representative in Sarajevo and USAID to coordinate some of their local projects.

These titbits are informative enough, but she is also on record as explicitly advocating NATO membership for Bosnia and Herzegovina (video clip in Serbian) which – if it were to come to pass – would be a stunning policy reversal that would necessarily include the Republic of Srpska.

Dodik’s vacant throne is now up for grabs. It is a safe bet that behind the scenes intense manoeuvring is taking place to install a compliant successor. Someone presumably with a profile not too different from Mrs. Ana Trišić Babić.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... ic-srpska/
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Thu Oct 30, 2025 2:34 pm

Image.

Class Relations in Germany in 2025
Originally published: Countercurrents on October 26, 2025 by Thomas Klikauer (more by Countercurrents) | (Posted Oct 30, 2025)

German-born Karl Marx might well be the most prominent philosopher and economist to have elaborated on a capitalism that created a class system. Yet, Germany is moving from the denial of class towards a “rediscovery” of class.

Throughout West-Germany’s post-Nazi history, its version of media capitalism ensured that the official ideology of anti-communism became the all-defining lens through which almost everything was viewed.

Anyone using the term “class” in West-Germany during those decades was branded as ewiggestrig — stuck in the past. Germany’s power elite made clear that the conflict of interests between those who buy labour and those who have to sell their labour on the market no longer existed—if it had ever existed at all.

Today, discussions about the pathologies of Germany’s class society are omnipresent. Popular books vividly describe how life in the working class still shapes people’s pathways today, as social mobility hardens and upward movement becomes increasingly rare.

Journalistic TV documentaries about the “working class” and even scientific “reports on the class society” are met with great media attention.

Whether in sections of Germany’s quality media, research institutes, churches, trade unions, adult education centres, theatres, NGOs, or political parties—all are trying to figure out why, in a society supposedly becoming more individualistic, diverse, and colourful, a sharply unequal distribution of life chances continues to have such a profound effect. It even gains in importance.

Today, the richest section of the population—topped by the publicity-shy Frau Klatten—owns roughly 30% of all assets. For those below that—most Germans—even life expectancy differs dramatically depending on socio-economic status and class:

Women on low wages die on average 4.4 years earlier than their counterparts in the highest income group.
For men, the difference is as much as 8.6 years.
The poor usually die much earlier.
This gap between rich and poor runs largely parallel to the well-known dividing line between capital and labour.
Socio-economic inequality curtails life chances—and can even take years off your life.

In a capitalist society, not only companies but also workers are forced to constantly compete with each other. Workers still experience the dependence on selling their own labour. Unlike for BMW-owning Frau Klatten ($26bn), “no work means no money.” It also means being exposed to the last remaining fragments of what was once a mighty German welfare state—now turned into a punishment regime for the poor.

Meanwhile, the system that largely governs a class society—namely, the state—has made it particularly difficult to trace the dynamics of Germany’s class structure. The state follows the prevailing hegemony of anti-communism: class simply does not exist.

After Germany’s liberation from Nazism and the rise of a pro-capitalist, deeply anti-communist order, politics, capitalism, and its media attached great importance to portraying Germany as a country distinguished—supposedly in contrast to East-Germany—by the myth of “prosperity for all,” as announced by “strong-state conservative” Ludwig Erhard.

Conformist sociologists like Helmut Schelsky lent a helping hand by proclaiming that Germany was a “levelled” Mittelstandsgesellschaft—even replacing the word “class” in “middle class society” with the reactionary-feudalist term Stand, a term evoking a society divided by estate or caste: nobles and peasants.

Meanwhile, even within the class-camouflaging delusion of the Mittelstand, not everyone was the same and not everyone belonged to the middle class. Some were more equal than others.

The Mittelstand ideology benefited from the fact that even unskilled workers saw wages rise quickly, new forms of petty-bourgeois consumerism became possible, and many hoped for betterment for themselves or at least for their children.

These were the unfulfilled promises of the so-called “economic miracle”—made possible by the state-and-capital-engineered mass migration of those denigrated as “guest workers.”

These years were sold as the “golden years”—though, as always, some had the gold while others did not. Under these conditions, and kept at bay by the prevailing ideology, large parts of the working population were indeed enticed to see themselves as part of “the middle.”

West-German society was made to appear as a pear: a tiny shoot at the top and a relatively narrow bottom. Even after the “dream of everlasting prosperity” ended in the mid-1970s, petty-bourgeois sociologists like Ulrich Beck continued to hope for an “elevator effect”—the rising tide that would lift all boats.

Beck and his entourage believed that German society was on the right track to get everyone to the upper floor, no matter which floor they entered from. Beck took his false premises as “good news.”

Meanwhile, the denial of class society almost eliminated issues such as capitalism’s recurring crises, mass unemployment, poverty, precarization, and the neoliberal reshaping of Germany’s labour market and social policy—euphemistically known as the “Hartz Reforms.”

These “reforms” were named after Volkswagen’s personnel chief Peter Hartz, who was later convicted of fraud. In 2007, Braunschweig’s court sentenced him to two years’ probation and a €576,000 fine—confirming once again that top managers don’t go to prison; petty thieves do. Germany’s Wikipedia even mentions “prostitutorial” activities in connection with the case.

With the impact of neoliberalism setting in, German workers found that—instead of going up in the elevator—they were on an “escalator down.”

Despite all this, for many, “the middle” remains a place of longing, a myth they were made to believe in. The prevailing ideology of “the middle” was so persuasive that it seemed to need no justification. No reference to the continued existence of class society was required.

This has real consequences for the analysis of social structures. Because class differences are presumed not to exist, they are hardly documented and rarely examined.

Even today, Germany lacks official statistics—unlike, for example, Great Britain and France—from which one could discern changes in class structures. In 2001, for example, Britain’s Office for National Statistics announced the existence of eight classes:

higher professional and managerial occupations;
lower managerial and professional occupations;
intermediate occupations;
small employers and own-account workers;
lower supervisory and technical occupations;
semi-routine occupations;
routine occupations; and
never worked and long-term unemployed.

While these are sociological groupings by occupation, they triggered a lively debate in the UK—something impossible in Germany, where the all-pervasive ideology insists there are no classes.

Meanwhile, Germany—like any other society—remains defined by class: a Marx inspired class system of workers and the bourgeoisie, or, if you prefer, the sociologically invented “lower, middle, and upper class,” based on differences in income, education, and social status.

Worse, official data in Germany focuses merely on occupational categories—distinguishing only between workers, white-collar employees, and civil servants.

Based on the “no-classes-here” ideology, the prevailing language deliberately avoids emphasizing class antagonisms and social inequality.

Instead of class, Germany’s pro-business media and compliant researchers continue to appeal to an imaginary unity and ethnic homogeneity—the spirit of the antisemitic Volksgemeinschaft prevails.

The tendency to deny class differences has been reinforced by capital, the media, and virtually all party-political constellations since 1949. For many years, the two major parties—the conservative CDU/CSU and the social-democratic SPD—joined forces in sustaining capitalism under the pretence of a classless Mittelstand society.

This political-ideological disregard for class differences has a long and strong tradition in Germany—from the Wilhelmine Empire to the Nazis to West-Germany.

Despite the denial, class has a profound impact on people’s work and lives. Even in the mid-1950s, workers in West-Germany’s metal industry—interviewed by Heinrich Popitz, Hans Paul Bahrdt, Ernst August Jüres, and Hanno Kesting—had no doubt that there was a clear boundary between “those up there” and “us down here,” and they knew exactly where those boundaries lay.

On the downside, this awareness was hardly associated with class struggle. After all, Germany’s trade unions and workers’ movement had been crushed, tortured, and murdered under the Nazis only a few years earlier.

Under these conditions, workers had no illusions about class, but they also no longer assumed that they could make a significant contribution to overcoming Germany’s class society.

Instead, they settled in as best they could. This was made easier by the post-war economic upswing. After the boom, with neoliberalism on the rise, it became much more difficult for large parts of Germany’s working population to escape the proletarian class.

Although the grandchildren of Germany’s working class graduated from colleges and universities in increasing numbers, they still do so far less frequently than the children of other social groups.

Today, many lag behind union-won standards in wages and working conditions comparable to what their parents or grandparents achieved.

In politics and science, it remains disreputable to speak of a class society. Yet since the mid-1980s, growing parts of the working population have felt that it exists—and that class affects their work, lives, and futures.

In other words, Germany is constantly engaged in processes of class formation. A class takes shape when people, based on common experiences, begin to feel and articulate their interests—both among themselves and against others whose interests differ from or oppose their own.

Such processes of class formation change the relationship between capital and labour, as well as relationships among workers themselves.

The working class here is understood as the growing group of people who must secure their existence by selling their labour power.

They are wage-earners, absolutely dependent on the income from their work. They cannot live—or at least not permanently—on savings or other sources of income.

At the same time, they are employed under superiors, managers, and overseers—they have a boss—and are bound by managerial orders and instructions.

Since capitalism is based on the competition of all against all, relations between workers are also characterized by competition.

Although wage labour takes many forms, it also creates strong similarities among those affected by class. Virtually all workers share at least three common interests:

an interest in higher wages;
an interest in shorter working hours; and
an interest in good working conditions.
This is not unique to Germany. It applies to all workers—from a German car factory to a Filipino textile worker, a Colombian cleaner, an Egyptian nurse, or an Indian worker at Tata Motors.

Despite all the differences and competition, there are indications of overarching experiences, of connections between different groups of employees, and potentials for solidarity.

It is not possible to directly deduce class solidarity from everyday behaviour, but one can identify areas where an awareness of unifying interests exists—and where class consciousness can emerge.

https://mronline.org/2025/10/30/class-r ... y-in-2025/

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Build the Platform to strengthen the global anti-imperialist struggle

The deepening crisis of overproduction in the imperialist countries is intensifying the drive to war and deepening working-class impoverishment.
Proletarian writers

Wednesday 30 April 2025

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The struggles of the world’s oppressed against imperialism are an integral part of our own struggle for emancipation from wage slavery.

The following resolution was passed unanimously by the tenth party congress of the CPGB-ML.

*****

This congress confirms that the only correct analysis of imperialism is that made by Lenin:

“We must give a definition of imperialism that will include the following five of its basic features: (1) the concentration of production and capital has developed to such a high stage that it has created monopolies which play a decisive role in economic life; (2) the merging of bank capital with industrial capital, and the creation, on the basis of this ‘finance capital’, of a financial oligarchy; (3) the export of capital as distinguished from the export of commodities acquires exceptional importance; (4) the formation of international monopolist capitalist associations which share the world among themselves and (5) the territorial division of the whole world among the biggest capitalist powers is completed.

“Imperialism is capitalism at that stage of development at which the dominance of monopolies and finance capital is established; in which the export of capital has acquired pronounced importance; in which the division of the world among the international trusts has begun, in which the division of all territories of the globe among the biggest capitalist powers has been completed.” (Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism, 1916)

This congress applauds our party’s role in assisting with the formation of the World Anti-imperialist Platform. Congress notes that the formation of the Platform was a response to:

1. The harmful confusion in the world’s working-class movement which saw the prestigious Greek Communist party (KKE) use all its influence to spread the erroneous theory that all capitalist countries in the era of monopoly capital must necessarily be imperialist. This anti-Leninist ‘theory’ has been propagated in the name of Leninism to justify denouncing the enemies of imperialism, in particular (but not only) Russia and China, as imperialist countries that are just as much enemies of the working class as the real imperialists grouped in the Nato camp. Thus the KKE and aligned parties around the world have condemned Russia’s SMO in Ukraine as ‘aggressive’ and defined the Ukraine conflict as an ‘interimperialist war’ in the outcome of which the working-class movement has no interest and should not take sides – the very opposite of the truth.

2. The accelerating drive to war by the imperialist countries, led by the USA, against all countries seeking economic independence, which the imperialists see as obstacles to their ability to loot resources for the minimum cost, especially Russia and China (but not exclusively these two, witness the wars in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria, as well as the ‘colour revolutions’ in east European and former Soviet states such as Ukraine). The imperialists are trying to effect ‘regime change’ wherever a state tries to exert even a modicum of sovereignty in order to dismember the territories of its opponents and loot their resources at will, the drive to war being the result of the deepening crisis of overproduction in all of the imperialist countries, which is at the same time increasingly impoverishing its own working classes.

This congress recognises that imperialism is the chief enemy of the working and oppressed peoples, both at home and abroad.

Congress recognises also that in the current world situation of the deepening global crisis of overproduction, which is leading both to the increasing impoverishment of workers and to the accelerating drive to war by the imperialists, it is more important than ever that the revolutionary working-class movement in the imperialist nations:

1. provides a correct analysis of what constitutes imperialism; and

2. bases its work on the understanding that the struggles of the oppressed and anti-imperialist peoples and nations against imperialism are an integral part of our own struggle for emancipation from wage slavery and must therefore be unconditionally and wholeheartedly supported.

This congress acknowledges the importance, at this time and at this stage of the revolutionary movement, of the of the initiative taken by all those forces involved in the formation the World Anti-Imperialist Platform, recognises in particular the significance of the theoretical work of our founding chair, Comrade Harpal Brar, in helping to form its central positions, and confirms its full support for the Paris Declaration of the World Anti-Imperialist Platform made on 14 October 2022 (see document linked below).

Congress appreciates the important role played by some of our own comrades in helping to prepare many of the Platform’s statements and resolutions, and the significant commitment of time and resources our leadership has given to helping the Platform to develop, and to ensure that its international conferences are a success and the influence of its line continues to grow.

Congress applauds the success of the Platform over the last two and a half years in bringing together increasing numbers of progressive, anti-imperialist parties, which are gaining strength from one other’s example and experiences, and benefiting from the clear Marxist-Leninist leadership and analysis provided by the Platform.

Congress therefore resolves that our party will continue to devote the time and funds necessary to support the activities of the Platform (as far as our resources will allow), and to render all possible support to those who are delegated to carry out this important work.

Paris Declaration: The rising tide of global war and the tasks of anti-imperialists, 14 October 2022.

https://thecommunists.org/2025/04/30/ne ... -struggle/

*****

Class Consciousness at The World Transformed
16/10/2025
By Lewis Hodder

Although I’d joined the queue for the Assembly forty minutes early, by the time I entered the hall I soon found myself shuffling, single file, along the back of the hall where all the seats were taken, with too many people filing into a narrow dead-end made up of even more people. After apologising to those whose view I was blocking and some perfunctory humour from the chair, it became clear that the class consciousness of large sections of the room exceeds the movement’s leaders. Jeremy Corbyn is cited as a reason many people here were ever drawn to the left in the 2010s, but his own Bennite autodidactism that looks to concepts of peace and justice and to Percy Bysshe Shelley is a world away from the political experience of the British left today. The shared recognition of the hall was the necessity of building past the British left’s historical failures. Over forty proposals were submitted to be read and discussed across three assemblies at The World Transformed, each responding to the main challenges that face the left in Britain and globally, what were people’s vision for the new party, and what are its priorities and what is necessary to achieve them. Every speaker, whether speaking from the stage or from the floor, who at least openly declared their affiliation, was from a trade union like the British Medical Association, the National Education Union, or Equity, or RS21, Plan C, a faction of the new party itself, the Palestinian Youth Movement, from the Movement Research Unit, some students, people without any affiliation altogether, and a holistic mental health charity and members of the Greens. The established left-wing parties, the Revolutionary Communist Party and the Socialist Workers Party, by contrast, dutifully held their stalls outside the box office and main hall to attract anyone who wasn’t already familiar with them.

The assemblies themselves moved from rightful indignation at parliament to something more reconciliatory. The latter mood was centred around the Greens; surety of electoral alliances were coupled with anxiety around choosing them or the new party, as a member of Plan C with an “EAT THE RICH” jumper wasn’t able to decide between the two. What criticism was directed at Parliament was explicitly aimed at Adnan Hussain, and at first only implicitly at Corbyn for having allowed him to be associated with the party at all and its keen contempt for democracy. Adnan Hussain’s property portfolio and rigid defence of his own transphobia – which he attempted to read into the history of socialism and defended as essential to the Muslim community – sparked indignation, and Kieran Glasssmith’s essay “MPs Don’t Make Good Leaders”1 soon found its audience on the British left as Corbyn’s commitment to the broadchurch politics of the Labour Party reasserted itself in its most meek form. In his first interview after Zarah Sultana’s impromptu announcement of the new party and her role in it, Corbyn told Owen Jones that he’d made a pact with the Independent Alliance MPs that, “Where we agree, we’ll work together. Where we don’t agree, we’ll say no more about it.”2 This form of politics was plainly unacceptable to the hall; a working class party socialist cannot give an inch to reaction or capital.

Numerous interventions from the floor confirmed this. One person stated that “We don’t want to take over power, we want to smash it”, with multiple people calling to explicitly draw on Marxist and revolutionary traditions together and affirmations that socialism means liberation for all oppressed people. Another person stated that there should be wealth redistribution within the party itself, through the sale of inherited assets and MPs and staff being given a worker’s wage with the rest being donated. The proposal from Organising for Popular Power began by describing how little alignment they felt with the leadership of the party, which was contrasted by the strength of solidarity in the hall. The lessons of 2019 needed to be learnt: leadership cannot be depended on, the people cannot be passive, and branches must be placed above the leadership.

The largest and most forceful applause of each assembly went to speakers from the stage and from the floor who told the simple truth that the leadership of the party were fucking this up, and this was not theirs to fuck up – this must be a party of the working class, a party committed to solidarity with trans people and against racism in all forms. The first of such necessary interventions described the “sham democracy” of the founding process, the forthcoming regional assemblies that don’t deserve to be called assemblies at all, and added, at the end, a thank you to Corbyn and Sultana for initiating the process, but that the party was ours. The chair sheepishly followed by stating that Sultana was in the room and would be an unscheduled speaker next taking the stage. With noticeably less applause than what had immediately preceded it, Sultana tried to match that energy and anger of the floor. “I’m not a Labour hand-me-down”, she started, recalling how she’d actually gained her start in Palestine solidarity movement, and that this new party must be one that is not ashamed of its class politics and must seize the means of production, but not before adding that the party must “fight elections for the working class.” According to her, any disagreements that had emerged at the top of the nascent party were not of personalities but principles, and that principle was maximum democracy for the membership. Reading the mood of the hall, she outlined how crucial transparency was, that conference must be sovereign, MPs accountable to the membership, and subject to mandatory reselection – but, essentially, these all still need to be fought for within the party; this was by no means settled.

This was the assemblies at their most productive: in articulating the frustration with the leadership and formalising the base against them, to express clear demands that surpassed the class consciousness of the leadership. But they were by no means seamless, punctuated by tangent after tangent that fell beneath the level of politics necessary to recognise the British left’s immediate task. One such intervention from John Talbot who opened by saying that there was too much agreement in the hall, and that the problem was with democracy – neither elaborating whether this was bourgeois or capitalist democracy, or democracy at all – which left the hall puzzled. Class analysis disappeared and reappeared, at times deferring to discussions of establishment and anti-establishment and the popular slogans of Occupy Wall Street were repeated – though in one instance this was extended to a global context with the centre of imperialism being the one percent. While their presence had been entirely overlooked through the discussion of the new party’s practical politics and the impasse of British left, discussions of the Greens re-emerged as one member stated that their MP was Carla Denyer which was met with a solitary woo followed by silence. Another member soon added that their commitment was not to a party but to socialism, again putting forward the idea of an electoral pact between the Greens and the new party. One point that was met with cheers was a refugee asking how many others were in the hall, which fell into silence as people looked around them to see who was holding up their hands. He then proposed that future TWT tickets be reserved for refugees, which garnered more applause that continued as he began to decry “Eastern imperialism”, the imperialism of Russia, of China and the Uyghurs, and Iran. The discussion of fascism centred around its footsoldiers as misguided members of the working class, rather than expanding that class analysis to recognise the role played by the lumpenproletariat and petit-bourgeoisie – with the exception of one member of RS21 stating that the fascists he had spoken to were landlords, and another likewise pushed back to say that speaking to fascists directly won’t bring people over.

Nevertheless, there was broad acknowledgement that Palestine had brought the British left together, but it still lagged behind the militancy and organisation of European solidarity movements; speakers noted that the British left struggled with long-term offence through its lack of formal structures that a party would solve – together with the fact that Palestinians have the right to armed resistance, even if it was still not recognised by British parties. Where prior to the Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7th support for Palestine had been uncontroversial it had since, one rep from the BMA told the room, it was now met with repression and people found themselves afraid to speak out. Someone from the Palestinian Youth Movement stated that what had destroyed British socialism in 2019 had been Zionism itself, as a centre of reaction, and that the smears of anti-Semitism against Corbyn would not work again. There was one moment that was only met with cautious sympathy, until the crowd came together in applause: a speaker from the floor condemned the selective anti-imperialism of the British left: those who condemned intervention by the British, American, and Israeli state but were seemingly at peace with attacks against Iran. Others stressed that climate change is already here, and that it is not an immediate cataclysm but one that makes itself felt economically first – through the increase of prices of commodities with complications of production and the intensification of the “superexploitation” of the Global South, a burden that must be borne by the fossil fuel companies themselves. Someone from the floor added that fossil fuel companies must be nationalised, without compensation.

In the final assembly, Archie Woodrow was the first speaker and immediately reopened the question of the party: the organisation of the party is a farce, and people were already far more organised than those who were still creating the party through closed doors; people should turn up to the founding conference whether they were selected by sortition or not. The party itself likely won’t be dead on arrival, but it will fail to achieve what is historically necessary, which is to resolve the sectarianism that past generations have clung to: “So we’re likely to see socialists divided in different local areas between Your Party, the Greens, and independent local groups. Based on local circumstances, not principled political divisions.”3 The base of the party are the members of the organisations in that hall, and the assemblies at the World Transformed themselves have already demonstrated points of unity: a deep commitment to anti-chauvinism in all its forms, against racism and Islamophobia and transphobia; Palestine is the vanguard of international class struggle, and as socialists in Britain our main enemy is at home; a resolutely working-class party that wages class war at levels of society.

Over the three days of the festival, seven factions and tendencies4 that had already been created by supporters and members of the new party met together to discuss the prospect of working together. With the largest of the faction having approximately 500 members, this in itself represented something of a different magnitude to the pre-existing formations of the British; a faction already surpassing the number of members of RS21 and multiple British communist parties combined. Submitting one final proposal on the last day, they came out to announce a provisional minimum programme and constitutional demands that built on the points already discussed in the assemblies:

Minimum political programme

Anti-capitalism & socialist horizon – Power to the people: Socialism is only possible through the struggle of the working classes to own and democratically control the means of production and the organisation of society for people, not profit.
Leave no-one behind: Solidarity with all oppressed groups, including but not limited to anti-racism and migrant solidarity, queer and trans liberation, resisting islamophobia and disability justice.
Anti-imperialism: Freedom for all peoples dominated by empire. We deserve a world where all people are able to determine their own lives free from the scourge of imperialism, whether through war, finance or trade. Socialists in Britain have a responsibility to fight for a free Palestine, weaken British militarism, NATO, Zionism, and all cogs of the British imperialist machine.
Constitutional demands

Workers’ wage: Elected officials and party staff should take a salary no higher than the median wage in the area they live. The remaining money should go either to Your Party or to local class struggle organising.
Sovereign conference: Decisions made at conference are binding, the parliamentary or council whip should be used to ensure MPs and councillors vote in line with conference decisions.
Mandatory reselection: Before an election there must be an open vote of Your Party members in the relevant constituency on who the candidate will be – MPs do not automatically get to run for their seat again.
A genuinely democratic and sovereign conference to be held no more than 12 months after the founding conference.
Branch demands

Branches are well funded: receiving a significant portion of members’ subs and any MP salary shares, with autonomy over branch spending.
Data access: After the founding conference, the party must own all membership data. Elected branch committees must have access to full membership data for the area covered by their branch.
Base-building (meaning bringing new people into class struggle and movements) should be a core part of Your Party strategy.5
The factions then asked that the hall vote then and there on that provisional programme, to be taken and pushed for in members’ proto-branches and the regional assemblies, and the chairs duly obliged. The hall voted in favour, with some amendments but with abstentions centering on the legitimacy of the assembly, with one person voting against also repeating that sentiment.6 Amendments were then taken to the floor: there should be an explicit mention of Islamophobia in the programme, why was there no mention of climate?, and the necessity of dual memberships. When more questions were opened up to the floor, the first person said that it was clear that the “adults in the room” weren’t organising the party but were instead at this assembly, and that their informal group of party members would soon be in touch with the factions to work together.

The normal course of an assembly soon resumed, however: points about topics which weren’t quite relevant were raised, and as the event dragged on the chairs attempted to tease out practical solutions against people’s inclination to read an essay from their phones that they’d written earlier.

The recognition of the missed opportunity of a seamless launch was widespread, with calls for the pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will repeated throughout the assemblies. But what the debacle has immediately revealed are the limits of the processes and the politics that are being built into the party. Any analysis must not remain at the level of personality – between a split or reconciliation of Corbyn and Sultana – but instead one of democracy and class-struggle; of the necessity of waging class against sections of society, against chauvinism in all of its forms, against landlords, the petit-bourgeoisie and the bourgeoisie itself together with its parliament and parliamentary politics. And so it was necessary that Corbyn was the one to mount such a failure, as each failure radicalises the left further and further and clarifies the contradictions between the necessities of bourgeois parliament and the working class. Much of the British left had looked to him for guidance since his election to Labour leader in 2015 and, without him, remained demoralised and siloed in local organisations before coming together around Palestine but, with the prospect of a new socialist party, people are ready to extend the fight for Palestine to all levels of British society and see in him only caution and lessons that weren’t learnt. Corbyn stood for peace and hope, against the threat of the right-wing of the Labour Party – repeating the simple and ahistorical concepts that Marx critiqued first in Proudhon and then in the First International. But in a party where some of the most class conscious socialists and communists in the country constitute its base, that abstraction is laid bare and he is instead part of its right wing: a political wing that looks to alliances with the landlords and petit-bourgeoisie, that substitutes any Marxist analysis of class for a politics that is only capable of thinking in the dichotomies of establishment and anti-establishment – and willing to renege hard-won truths around the oppression of those who constitute the working class itself.



References
1. Kieran Glasssmith, “MPs Don’t Make Good Leaders”, Bristol Transformed, 26 July 2025, https://bristoltransformed.co.uk/blog/p ... d-leaders/ [Accessed 11/10/2025]

2. “Exclusive Jeremy Corbyn Interview: Why We Launched Your Party”, Owen Jones, YouTube, July 30 2025, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49jppx61YhY [Accessed 12/10/2025]

3. Archie Woodrow, “Democratic Socialists Organiser, Archie Woodrow, Opens TWT Assembly Calling For Marxist Unity”, Democratic Socialists, https://dsyp.org/2025/10/12/democratic- ... ist-unity/ [Accessed 14/10/25]

4. This includes: The Democratic Bloc, Democratic Socialists, Eco-Socialist Horizon, Greater Manchester Left Caucus, Organising for Popular Power,the Trans Liberation Group and The People’s Front.

5. “For a Member Led, Socialist Party”, Prometheus, 13 October 2025, https://prometheusjournal.org/2025/10/1 ... ist-party/ [Accessed 13/10/25]

6. When this was raised explicitly, the chairs reassured the hall that this was non-binding but is nevertheless the “popular will of the people.”

https://www.ebb-magazine.com/essays/cla ... ransformed
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Sat Nov 01, 2025 2:02 pm

NATO’s Three-Pronged Response To The Latest Russian Scare Raises The Risk Of A Larger War
Andrew Korybko
Oct 31, 2025

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This could be averted if Poland, which commands NATO’s third-largest army and whose new president recently didn’t rule out talking to Putin if his country’s security depended on it, doesn’t allow itself to be manipulated into partaking in any related provocations or backing up those responsible for them.

Early September’s suspicious Russian drone incident over Poland, Estonia’s subsequent claim that Russian jets violated its maritime airspace, and Scandinavia’s recent Russian drone scare are responsible for NATO considering a three-pronged response along its eastern flank according to the Financial Times. Their sources indicate that this could take the form of arming surveillance drones, streamlining the rules of engagement for fighter pilots, and holding NATO exercises right on the bloc’s border with Russia.

The first two carry self-evident escalation risks since trigger-happy operators or pilots could provoke a serious international security crisis if they shoot at (let alone down) Russian drones or jets. This is especially so if it occurs in international airspace or especially within Russia’s own. As for the last one, Russia’s threat assessment would spike during the duration of those drills since they could be a front for aggression, including hybrid aggression via drones and/or mercenaries.

NATO jamming could also lead to Russian drones veering across the border like this analysis here argues was probably responsible for the earlier-mentioned suspicious incident over Poland. In that scenario, NATO could have the pretext for a (possibly preplanned) escalation against Russia that could easily spiral out of control if cooler heads don’t prevail. The Financial Times noted that “a shift may not be publicly communicated” so a crisis could break out with no advance warning if NATO makes one wrong move.

Communication is key for preventing that, but Poland rejected Russia’s proposal to discuss September’s suspicious drone incident and Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova recently condemned it for annulling the visas of Russian experts ahead of an OSCE meeting in Warsaw. Poland aspires to revive its lost Great Power status, with September being historic in this respect as explained here, which would then revive its centuries-long rivalry with Russia at the possible expense of regional stability.

There are three fronts where Poland could apply one, some, or all three parts of NATO’s reported three-pronged response to the latest Russian scare: Kaliningrad, Belarus, and/or Ukraine. It also commands NATO’s third-largest army and has no plans to slow down its unprecedented militarization so its political-military leadership might feel emboldened to one day test Russia’s red lines. That could lead to a NATO-Russian war, however, if a Russian plane is shot down according to the Russian Ambassador to France.

New Polish President Karol Nawrocki wisely decided not to risk that by declining to impose a no-fly zone over part of Ukraine after September’s incident despite pressure from his Foreign Minister. It later turned out that the government lied about Russian responsibility for the damage inflicted on a home after it was revealed that a NATO missile was to blame. They also hid this fact from him. Deep state forces, possibly soon in collusion with Ukraine, quite clearly want to spark another Polish-Russian War.

Given that Nawrocki recently didn’t rule out talking to Putin if Poland’s security depended on it, he might thus do so in a crisis instead of allowing himself to be misled by deep state forces, particularly the liberal-globalist ruling coalition and their military-intelligence allies who just tried to manipulate him into war. Without the direct involvement of NATO’s third-largest army in any potentially forthcoming crisis, whether provoked by the Polish deep state or the Baltic States, a NATO-Russian war might be averted.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/natos-th ... nse-to-the

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Ian Proud: European leaders are unable to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia yet unwilling to face the political consequences of peace in Ukraine
October 31, 2025
By Ian Proud, Substack, 10/22/25

President Trump’s latest about face on dialogue with Russia doesn’t change the fundamental predicament Europe finds itself in: unable to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia but unwilling to face the political consequences of ending the war in Ukraine.

The Budapest Summit between Trump and Putin is now off, it seems. European leaders and Zelensky have clearly sold the US President on the idea of entering a ceasefire along the current line of contact. Yet, caught between a rock and a hard place, European leaders continue to deny the obvious realities of the dire situation in Ukraine, which will only worsen over time. I see no evidence of any willingness to change course, despite the obvious political hazard they face and the increasingly grim forecast for Europe and for Ukraine should they continue to push an unwinnable war.

The war in Ukraine is now entirely dependent on the ability of European states to pay for it at a cost of at least $50bn per year, on the basis of Ukraine’s latest budget estimate for the 2026 fiscal year. Ukraine itself is bankrupt and has no access to other sources of external capital, beyond that provided by the governments sponsoring the ongoing war.

That then brings the conversation back to the creation of a so-called ‘reconstruction loan’ underwritten by $140bn of the Russian foreign exchange assets currently frozen in Belgium. The term ‘reconstruction loan’ is itself disingenuous, on the basis that any expropriated Russian assets would not be used for reconstruction, but rather to fund the Ukrainian war effort. Indeed. Chancellor Merz of Germany recently suggested that the fund could allow Ukraine to keep fighting for another three years.

The most likely scenario, in the terrible eventuality that war in Ukraine did continue for another three years is that the Russian armed forces would almost certainly swallow up the whole of the Donbass region – comprising Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. This – Ukraine’s departure from the Donbas – appears to be the basis of President Putin’s conditions for ending the war now, together with a Ukrainian declaration of neutrality and giving up any NATO aspirations. More likely, the Russian Armed forces might also capture additional swathes of land in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, and also in Dnipropetrovsk, where they have made recent incursions.

So, there is a strong likelihood, at the currently slow pace of the war effort in which Russia claims small pieces of land on a weekly basis, that three years from now Ukraine would have to settle for a peace that was even more disadvantageous to it than that which is available now, having lost more land, together with potentially hundreds of thousands of troops killed or injured.

Logically, European policymakers would be able to look into the future to see this grim predicament with clear eyes and encourage Zelensky to settle for peace now.

But European policy is driven by two key considerations. Firstly, an emotional belief that an extended war might so weaken Russia that President Putin was forced to settle on unfavourable terms. The idea of a strategic defeat of Russia – which is often spoken by European politicians – however, doesn’t bear serious scrutiny.

Russia doesn’t face the same considerable social and financial challenges that Ukraine faces. Its population is much larger and a wider conscription of men into the Armed forces has not been needed – Russia can recruit sufficient new soldiers to fight and, indeed, has increased the size of its army since 2022. Ukraine continues to resort to forced mobilisation of men over the age of 25, often using extreme tactics that involve busifying young men against their will from the streets.

Critically, Russia could likely continue to prosecute the war on the current slow tempo for an extended period of time without the need for a wider mobilisation of young men, which may prove politically unpopular for President Putin domestically. Yet, the longer the war continues, Ukraine will come under increasing pressure, including from western allies, to deepen its mobilisation to capture young men below the age of 25 to shore up its heavily depleted armed forces on the front line.

There has been considerable resistance to this so far within Ukraine. Mobilising young men above the age of 22 would prove unpopular for President Zelensky but it would also worsen Ukraine’s already catastrophic demographic challenge: 40% of the working age population has already been lost, either through migration or through death on the front line and that number will continue to go south, the longer the war carries on.

Russia’s financial position is considerably stronger than Ukraine’s. It has very low levels of debt at around 15% of GDP and maintains a healthy current account surplus, despite a narrowing of the balance in the second quarter of 2025. Even if Europe expropriates its frozen assets, Russia still has a generous and growing stock of foreign exchange reserves to draw upon, which recently topped $700bn for the first time.

Russia’s military industrial complex continues to outperform western suppliers in the production of military equipment and munitions. In the currently unlikely event that Russia started to fall into the red in terms of its trade – what commentators in the west refer to as destroying Russia’s war economy – it would still have considerable scope to borrow from non-western lenders, given the strength of its links with the developing world, aided by the emergence of BRICS.

Ukraine is functionally bankrupt because it is unable to borrow from western capital markets, on account of its decision to pause all debt payments. With debt expected to reach 110% in 2025, even before consideration of any loan backed by frozen Russian assets, it depends entirely on handouts from the west. Ukraine’s trade balance has continued to worsen throughout the war, reinforcing its dependence on capital injections from the west to keep its foreign exchange reserves in the black.

So while the determination of Ukraine to fight is unquestionable, the emotional belief in the west that this will overcome the enormous social and economic challenges the country faces in an extended attritional war with Russia is wildly misplaced.

So, let’s look at the rational explanation for Europe’s continued willingness to prolong the fight in Ukraine. The uncomfortable truth is that Europe’s political leaders have boxed themselves into this position because of a hard boiled determination not to concede to Russia’s demands in any peace negotiations. Indeed, there is a steadfast and immovable objection to talking to Russia at all, which has been growing since 2014.

However, across much of Europe, the political arithmetic is turning against the pro-war establishment with nationalist, anti-war parties gaining ground in Central Europe, Germany, France, Britain and even in Poland. And despite so far fruitless overtures made by President Trump towards negotiation with President Putin, Trumpophobia provides another brake on the European political establishment shifting its position.

So, changing course now and entering into direct negotiations with Russia would have potentially catastrophic consequences, politically, for European leaders, which they must surely be aware of. A full 180 degree change in diplomatic course by Europe would require an acceptance that the war against Russia was unwinnable, and that Russia’s underlying concerns – namely Ukrainian neutrality – would finally have to be accepted as a political reality.

On this basis, European politicians would face the prospect of explaining to their increasingly sceptical voters that their strategy of defeating Russia had failed, having spent four years of war saying at all times that it would eventually succeed. And that would lead potentially to internationalist governments falling across Europe starting in two years when Poland and France will again go to the polls, and in 2029 when the British and German governments will face the voters.

There are deeper issues too. An end of war would accelerate the process of admitting Ukraine into the European Union with potentially disastrous consequences for the whole financial basis of Europe. The European Commission will face the prospect of accepting that a two-tier Europe is inevitable, admitting Ukraine as a member without the financial benefits received by existing member states; for probably understandable reasons, this would cause widespread resentment within Ukraine itself, having sacrificed so much blood to become European, precipitating widespread internal dissent and possibly conflict in a disgruntled country with an army of almost one million. Alternatively, the European Commission would need to redraw its budget and face huge resistance from existing Member States, who would lose billions of Euros each year in subsidies to Ukraine. And the truth is that it will in all likelihood be unable to do so.

Caught between hoping for a strategic defeat of Russia which any rational observer can see is unlikely, and accepting the failure of their policy, causing a widespread loss of power and huge economic and political turmoil, Europe’s leaders are choosing to keep calm and carry on. If they had any sense, the likes of Von der Leyen, Merz, Starmer or Macron would change tack and pin their hopes on explaining away their failure before the political tide in Europe evicts them all from power. But I see no signs of them having the political acumen to do that. So we will continue to sit and wait, while storm clouds grow ever darker over Europe.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/10/ian ... n-ukraine/

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16 Months of Silence: Serbia Train Station Collapse Sparks Nationwide Fury

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Commemoration of the Serbia train station collapse victims in Novi Sad with crowds observing 16 minutes of silence.

Tens of thousands gather in Novi Sad to mark one year since the Serbia train station collapse, demanding justice for the 16 lives lost.

November 1, 2025 Hour: 9:16 am

One year after Serbia’s deadly Novi Sad train station collapse, mass protests demand justice. Explore the political fallout and corruption allegations surrounding this national tragedy.

Serbia’s Train Station Collapse Sparks Nationwide Fury
Exactly one year after the Serbia train station collapse claimed 16 lives in Novi Sad, tens of thousands gathered in solemn unity to honor the victims—and to amplify their demands for justice. The emotional commemoration unfolded at 11:52 a.m. local time—the precise moment the roof of the newly renovated railway station gave way on November 1, 2024—marking 16 minutes of silence, one for each life lost.

You could hear a pin drop, reported Al Jazeera’s Milena Veselinovic from the scene. “It was totally silent for 16 minutes.” The mood, she noted, was “incredibly sombre,” blending grief with simmering anger over what many see as a preventable disaster rooted in systemic corruption and state negligence.

The anniversary has become more than a memorial—it is now a rallying cry. No trials have begun, despite criminal charges filed against 13 individuals, including former construction minister Goran Vesić. Under Serbia’s legal framework, these charges still require confirmation by a higher court—a step that has yet to occur. Public trust in the judiciary remains dangerously low, especially as protesters increasingly point fingers at President Aleksandar Vučić and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

Serbia Train Station Collapse Fuels National Outcry Over Corruption
What began as a call for a transparent investigation has evolved into a broad-based movement demanding early elections and institutional reform. Student-led protests, which erupted immediately after the collapse, have sustained momentum for over a year. On the anniversary weekend, demonstrators arrived in Novi Sad from across the country—some walking, cycling, or driving hundreds of kilometers.

A group of marchers trekked 100 kilometers from Belgrade, while others came from as far as Novi Pazar, roughly 340 kilometers south. Their 16-day journey mirrored the number of victims, turning physical endurance into symbolic resistance. Upon arrival, they were met by local residents blowing whistles, waving Serbian flags, and offering food and shelter—a powerful display of grassroots solidarity.

At the heart of the protest is raw personal grief. Dijana Hrka, whose 27-year-old son died in the collapse, spoke directly to the media: “What I want to know is who killed my child so I can have a little peace… I am looking for justice. I want no other mother to go through what I am going through.”

Her words echo a national sentiment. The Serbia train station collapse has become emblematic of deeper rot within public infrastructure projects—many funded by European Union grants. A separate anticorruption probe, backed by EU institutions, is examining whether EU funds were misused in the station’s renovation, raising questions about accountability at the highest levels of government.

Learn more about EU anti-fraud investigations via OLAF

Geopolitical Context: A Fractured Democracy in the EU’s Backyard
The fallout from the Serbia train station collapse extends beyond domestic politics. As a candidate country for European Union membership, Serbia’s democratic backsliding and entrenched corruption pose significant challenges to Brussels’ enlargement strategy. The EU delegation in Serbia issued a statement ahead of the anniversary urging “restraint, de-escalation, and avoidance of violence”—a subtle but clear signal of concern over rising tensions.

Political analyst Aleksandar Popov described corruption in Serbia as “sky high,” estimating that hundreds of millions—possibly billions—of euros are siphoned through inflated infrastructure contracts. “This government and the president have captured all key institutions of state, like the judiciary,” he told Al Jazeera, underscoring how legal mechanisms meant to ensure accountability have been neutralized.

President Vučić, long accused of authoritarian tendencies, has remained defiant. While he recently offered a rare televised apology—saying he regretted harsh words directed at students and protesters—he continues to dismiss critics as “foreign-funded coup plotters.” His party has even floated conspiracy theories suggesting the roof collapse was a deliberate attack, further eroding public trust.

Despite the government declaring a national day of mourning, many citizens view such gestures as performative. Patriarch Porfirije of the Serbian Orthodox Church held a memorial mass in Belgrade’s Saint Sava Temple, but for protesters, rituals without reform ring hollow.

Read the EU Delegation’s official statement on Serbia

Justice Delayed, Justice Denied
The legal limbo surrounding the case fuels public frustration. Although charges have been filed, the absence of judicial confirmation means no trial date is in sight. This delay is not accidental, critics argue—it reflects a broader pattern of judicial capture under Vučić’s rule, where courts serve political interests rather than the rule of law.

Meanwhile, protests remain largely peaceful, though tensions flared in mid-August when clashes erupted between demonstrators and police. Protesters blamed “heavy-handed tactics” by security forces loyal to the regime, raising fears of escalating repression.

Yet the movement shows no signs of fading. Students continue to organize, civil society groups amplify their message, and ordinary citizens—from factory workers to university professors—join weekly vigils. The Serbia train station collapse has become more than a tragedy; it is a catalyst for a nationwide reckoning with power, transparency, and the cost of silence.

As Serbia stands at a crossroads, the world watches closely. The Serbia train station collapse may have begun as a structural failure—but it has exposed far deeper fractures in the nation’s democratic foundations. For the families of the victims and the citizens marching in the streets, silence is no longer an option.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/serbia-t ... -collapse/

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Europe 2025: When the taxpayer pays for a war that is not their own

Lucas Leiroz

November 1, 2025

As Brussels pushes for the seizure of Russian assets, European citizens and banks bear the financial and legal risks of an irresponsible foreign policy.

The European Union seems increasingly detached from financial and legal reality, betting on measures that could irreversibly compromise the economies and legal stability of its own member states. Brussels’ obsession with funding Ukraine has become a dangerous dilemma: either European countries agree to seize Russian assets, or they will have to reach into taxpayers’ pockets to finance the so-called €140 billion “reparation loan” for Kiev. As a recent article in Politico highlighted, the European Commission’s pressure on governments historically cautious with public spending reveals an outright disregard for fiscal balance and the principles of international law, turning European citizens into involuntary guarantors of an operation fraught with risk.

Brussels’ plan completely ignores the financial realities of European economies. Germany, the Netherlands, and other members of the “frugal” group are reluctant to take on additional debt that would fall directly on their taxpayers. France and Italy, already burdened by high levels of debt, would be even more vulnerable to a new forced financial effort. The threat of pushing the burden of a multi-billion-euro loan onto citizens constitutes institutional blackmail: the EU presents the seizure of Russian assets as the “lesser evil” to coerce governments into approving measures they would otherwise never accept. In practice, it transforms European taxpayers into guarantors of a war that is not theirs.

The idea of using frozen Russian assets to finance the reparation loan is presented as an almost magical solution, but the legal risks are clear and substantial. Most of these assets are held by Euroclear in Belgium, a country that has already expressed concerns about the legality of the measure. Any attempt at unilateral confiscation opens the door to complex and costly international litigation, especially considering the bilateral investment treaty between Belgium and Russia signed in 1989. The European Union ignores that this “gesture of justice” could quickly become a heavy legal and financial burden for its own member states, particularly for Belgian taxpayers.

Even more concerning is the virtually unrealistic nature of the so-called “reparation loan.” As Politico itself noted, the chances of Russia paying any amount are practically zero. Thus, the loan is nothing more than a forced transfer of European resources to Kiev, turning the project into a costly geopolitical gamble with no guaranteed return. European banks and markets, which could be affected in case of legal disputes or default, become vulnerable, while the European population, whose taxes will be drained to cover external debts, is the first to suffer.

The EU’s obsession with financially pressuring Moscow ignores the fact that frozen assets are not “free” funds: they are instruments subject to long-term, complex legal disputes that can generate unpredictable financial liabilities. The European Commission itself admits that any risks would need to be shared collectively, but this offers little protection to citizens and local economies, which will bear the cost of a political move that disregards sovereignty and international law. The narrative that the money “will only be returned if Russia ends the war and pays reparations to Kiev” is, at best, naïve: it is a virtually impossible condition, turning the operation into a mechanism for transferring European resources under enormous legal and financial risk.

The “reparation loan” exposes the European Union’s total disconnect from the interests of its own citizens. By insisting on measures that expropriate third-party assets or transfer risks to taxpayers, the EU not only creates internal financial instability but also erodes confidence in European institutions and markets. The European population, not Russia, is paying the price for this geopolitical fantasy, while Brussels clings to obsessive and dangerous foreign policies. The legal, financial, and social stakes are clear: by insisting on this path, the European Union turns its citizens into victims of a strategy that resembles political propaganda more than responsible governance.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... their-own/
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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Tue Nov 04, 2025 2:54 pm

THE GOOD SOLDIER TUSK – THE POLISH COMEDY

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By Stanislas Balcerac, Warsaw, translated and annotated by John Helmer
@bears_with

In the one hundred-year old Czech satire of the simpleminded conscript in the Austro-Hungarian army of World War I, Jaroslav Hasek’s hero, the good soldier Schweik, has come to display through his stupidity what the Czechs today say goes “further in defining the Czechs in the 20th century than perhaps anyone else.”

Thinking aloud, Schweik says things like: “All along the line, everything in the army stinks of rottenness. Up till now the wide-eyed masses haven’t woken up to it. With goggling eyes they let themselves be made into mincemeat and then when they’re struck by a bullet they just whisper, ‘Mummy!’ Heroes don’t exist, only cattle for the slaughter and the butchers in the general staffs. But in the end everybody will mutiny and there will be a fine shambles. Long live the army! Goodnight!” That last line wasn’t wishful thinking. It was sarcasm and satire of the propaganda of 1921.

The Czechs are still kidding themselves: when it comes to fighting their war against Russia, Schweik is no longer a conscript private, he’s a well-paid volunteer General Staff officer commuting between Prague, Rzeszów, and Lvov.

In Poland today, ruled by the Civic Coalition (formerly Civic Platform, Platforma Obywatelska, PO) party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski (lead images, left and centre), there is no shortage of propaganda from them; no lack of satirical laughter at what they say. The more of that there is, however, the more desperately Tusk and Sikorski crave attention, especially abroad where the dynamics of Polish politics are unknown and both of them ignored.

The good soldier Tusk says things like: “We must be aware that this is our war, because the war in Ukraine is only part of this ghastly project that appears in the world from time to time. And the goal of this political project is always the same. How to enslave nations, how to take away freedom from individual people, what to do to make authoritarianism, despotism, cruelty, lack of human rights triumph. If we lose this war, the consequences will affect not only our generation, but also future generations. In Poland, throughout Europe, in the United States, everywhere in the world.”

Bad joke — cue recorded applause, spontaneous laughter.

“More and more bread is missing, it is Donald Tusk who proposes more games” – on October 29 that’s what the opposition Polish portal wpolityce.pl said about the Polish prime minister. A few days earlier, Business Insider, owned by the German Axel Springer group, wrote: “in the middle of the term of the Tusk government, the balance of fulfilled promises looks rather modest. Most of the most important ones from a financial point of view remain unfulfilled and everything indicates that this will not change for the next few years.” The government-run radio Polskeradio24 reported in mid-October that in two years Tusk has fulfilled just 19 out of the 100 promises he announced in his election campaign of 2023.

Under Tusk, the budget deficit and national debt are growing. The latest figures from the Central Statistical Office and Eurostat show that by the end of 2025, the budget deficit may exceed 7% of GDP, and public debt is the fastest growing in the European Union (EU). The EU’s prudential limit for the deficit/GDP ratio is 3%; for the debt/GDP ratio, 60%.

POLAND’S BUDGET DEFICIT IS THE SECOND LARGEST IN THE EU, 2021-24

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“In 2024, all Member States, except Denmark (+4.5%), Ireland and Cyprus (both +4.3%), Greece (+1.3%), Luxembourg (+1.0) and Portugal (+0.7%), reported a deficit. The highest deficits were recorded in Romania (‑9.3%), Poland (-6.6%), France (‑5.8%) and Slovakia (-5.3%). Twelve Member States had deficits equal to or higher than 3% of GDP.” Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/.

RATIO OF GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT TO GDP IN THE EURO AREA, Q1 2025

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Source: https://www.eunews.it/en/2025/04/22/eur ... nt-of-gdp/ “Member states must comply with budgetary discipline on the basis of criteria and reference values set in the EU Treaties: their deficit should not exceed 3% of their gross domestic product (GDP) and their debt should not exceed 60% of their GDP. All member states have to respect these Treaty reference values”.

Unemployment is also on the rise, with rates already close to the European average. “Poland is shrinking” – this summarizes the economic situation of the country’s weekly trade union Solidarity in its latest publication.

It is the same with France and Germany. Macron and Merz try to cover their weakness and their failures with agitation and war rhetoric on the international stage. They want to be guarantors of Ukraine’s security while at the same time they are unable to provide internal security for their own citizens (thousands of soldiers have been patrolling the streets of France for a decade). Tusk is trying the same manoeuvre but starting from a much worse position.

Poland’s biggest ally Trump ignores Tusk’s initiative. Macron and Merz publicly humiliate Tusk. Macron and Merz transformed the format of the Weimar Triangle (France, Germany, Poland) into a quadrangle, inviting Starmer to join them. In the Weimar Quadrangle, cunningly called the Weimar-Plus Triangle, Tusk’s position is clearly marginalized. What is memorable is their joint spring pilgrimage to Kiev this year, during which Merz, Macron and Starmer took cheerful photos in the lounge car, while Tusk traveled alone in another car, and in the morning on the platform in Kiev he was greeted by Ukrainians separately.

MAY 2025 – MERZ, STARMER AND MACRON ARE MET AT KIEV STATION BY ANDREI YERMAK

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Source: https://www.wprost.pl/swiat/12013531/dl ... macza.html

BUT TUSK ALIGHTS ALONE AND THROUGH THE SECOND–CLASS RAIL CARRIAGE DOOR

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Source: https://www.wprost.pl/swiat/12013531/dl ... macza.html

The Polish press reported the allied leaders’ visit to Kiev by headlining: “Tusk in one carriage, the other leaders in another. The Ukrainian side explains… [According to a Warsaw official] initially only the leaders of France and Great Britain were supposed to go to Kiev. Later, the German Chancellor joined, and at the very end Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The same source added that an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers was held in Lvov on May 9, and the number of special railway wagons owned by Ukraine was limited. Tusk's place on the train was therefore explained by logistical reasons.” On the return journey Polish media publish a video of a bus trip with Zelensky in which Merz with outstretched finger told Tusk to go back to the station himself.

VOTING INTENTION OF POLES TOWARDS THE MAIN PARTIES, ONE YEAR

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For enlarged view, click on source: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/poland/

Criticized in Poland and ignored abroad, Tusk is desperate to attract attention. In a recent interview with the UK’s Sunday Times titled “Donald Tusk: Ukraine is ready to fight on for three more years,” the Prime Minister declared that “Poland’s success and moral authority entitle him to the role of geopolitical leader… the Polish way of thinking should become the pan-European way”. This is political elephantiasis in its purest form.

“President Zelensky told me on Thursday that he hopes the war will not last 10 years, but Ukraine is ready to fight for another 2-3 years,” Tusk said, adding, “Now the most important question is how many more victims we will suffer.”

It is hard to see what kind of sacrifice Tusk would make himself. In the military plans of the first Tusk government which were revealed by the political opposition – the Vistula defence plan of 2011 — it was clear that in the event of a Russian attack, the Tusk government was ready to surrender without a fight the entire eastern part of Poland up to the Vistula, even though the river was supposed to be the national line of defence. Of course, it’s no surprise that Tusk’s home in Sopot and Sikorski’s residence in Chobielin are situated on the western side of the Vistula River. Tusk’s 2011 Defence Plan therefore did not involve any sacrifice on their part.

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Left: Click on source for enlarged view. https://militarnyi.com/en/news/poland-p ... -invasion/ Reporting on the details of the plan, the Polish media reported their sources as saying that on the fifth day of the projected conflict, “the enemy was on the Vistula line, battles were underway for Warsaw, and strategic ports were blocked or captured.” As a result of the command and CP exercises, Poland’s air force and navy were destroyed despite NATO’s support.”

Tusk’s bombastic statements about the failure of Germany to extradite the Ukrainian perpetrators of the Nord Stream attack, which Russian politicians have considered a “provocation”, are just “opportunistic hot air and a pose for their own political use”, the Warsaw press has said. “Just like Sikorsky. Verbal fencing does not cost Tusk anything personally, he remembers that two of the most ardent German advocates of war with Russia, Green Party politicians Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock, have already exfiltrated out of Germany across the Atlantic to the United States. Tusk himself was once exfiltrated to Brussels in 2014 when the ground began to burn under his feet after the scandal with the publication of secret tape recordings of his political colleagues in Warsaw restaurants; there was also talk at the time about the recordings in which Tusk himself was featured.

In his Sunday Times interview, Tusk “warned” Britain that it could no longer live in the “sweet illusion” that it would be spared in the event of a war between NATO states and Russia, and stressed that if Moscow deployed Oreshnik ballistic missiles on the territory of Belarus or in Kaliningrad, it could easily launch a nuclear warhead aimed at any European capital, including London. A few days after these warnings by Tusk, on October 27 the Polish media reported that the government’s Main Traffic Inspectorate (GITD) gave permission to launch a new bus connection from Kaliningrad to Warsaw. The first news of this was reported – with satisfaction — by the Russian regional media. Is Tusk the strategist making it easier for Russian engineers to travel to NATO, to Poland?

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Tusk’s contradictions are the same with Belarus. After threatening the British with Oreshnik missiles from the territory of Belarus, last week Tusk announced that Poland would reopen two border crossings with Belarus – at Bobrowniki-Berestowice and Kuznica-Bruzgi. Tusk’s government says the move is intended primarily to serve the humanitarian and economic needs of the border region, which has been grappling with the consequences of the crossing closures for the past two years. The Kuźnica-Bruzgi road crossing was closed by the Polish side in November 2021 due to the migration crisis at the border caused by Belarus.

In contrast, the Bobrovniki–Berestovica road crossing was suspended for traffic on February 10, 2023. Then in May last year, a young soldier, Mateusz Sitek, was killed on the border with Belarus, stabbed by an unidentified individual from the Belarusian side. This act of aggression did not provoke any reaction from the Tusk government.

Tusk’s warmongering is a pure bluff for political purposes aimed at maintaining power for as long as he can. The Polish army was rearmed by the previous Law and Justice party (PiS) government. The Tusk Government has been holding back rather than accelerating implementation of arms deals signed by PiS. The PiS government’s planned investment in a new airport in central Poland, the so-called Central Communication Port (CPK), is not moving forward. The NATO logistics airport in Poland, Rzeszow Jasionka, is close to the Ukrainian border and is much more difficult to defend against possible Russian air attacks than the CPK would be. Tusk can posture in interviews, but his words do not translate into actions — you can even say that his actions contradict what he says.

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Source: https://www.nik.gov.pl/en/news/central- ... takes.html

Between the airport in Rzeszow and the border of Ukraine lies Przemyśl, a major industrial city, hub of land transport to Ukraine, connected by rail tracks of Russian-width standards. In Przemyśl too, there is a monument to the Good Soldier Schweik, as the last part of his adventures took place in that city 110 years ago. The Good Soldier Schweik became famous for such strategic analyses as, for example: “as it was there, so it was there, it has never been so, that somehow it was not”. Every year the Association of Friends of the Good Soldier Schweik organizes the Great Schweik manoeuvres in the Przemyśl Fortress.

It will be fitting for the patron of honour over these manoeuvres to be awarded to the Good Soldier Tusk. Cue laughter – no joke.

Endnote: In the lead image, right, there is the newly elected President of Poland, Karol Nawrocki. The PiS party candidate, he narrowly defeated the Tusk party candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, 50.9% to 49.1%. A historian by education and work experience, Nawrocki is more reserved towards Ukraine; in part this is because of the unresolved issue of the exhumation of Polish victims of the Wolyn genocide perpetrated by Ukrainians in 1943. Contrary to Tusk and Sikorski, Nawrocki thinks in terms of “Poland and Poles first” (Po pierwsze Polska, po pierwsze Polac) and has five years before him (the next presidential election is in 2030), so he does not need to resort to desperate rhetoric measures like Tusk and Sikorski. Nawrocki’s election on June 1 has also triggered an internal challenge within the Civic Coalition by Sikorski to replace Tusk and become prime minister himself.

Authors: Since 2014 Stanislas Balcerac (Warsaw) and John Helmer (Moscow) have collaborated in investigative journalism on Polish politics. They have focused in particular on the money which Radosław Sikorski and his American wife, Anne Applebaum -- the Sicklebaums -- have received (and attempted to hide) for their warmaking between Poland and Russia. Read the 28-report archive here. Balcerac regularly publishes in Polish weekly magazines. In 2019, he wrote a book entitled “Walka o pieniądze czyli kto okradł Polskę” (“The Fight for Money, or Who Robbed Poland”) about the pathologies of Poland's transformation. In 1988, he received The International Herald Tribune's Centennial Scholarship from the newspaper's publisher Lee Huebner. In the 1990s, Balcerac worked at the World Bank in Washington, D.C.

https://johnhelmer.net/the-good-soldier ... sh-comedy/

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The German economy has ceased to be competitive.
November 3, 1:07 PM

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The German economy has ceased to be competitive.

One in three German companies (36%) plans to cut jobs by 2026, according to a survey by the Institute of the German Economy (IW).
The situation is particularly bleak in manufacturing, with a whopping 41% of companies announcing upcoming layoffs.

Investment is equally dire: only 23% of companies plan to invest more in new projects in 2026, while 33% plan to invest less. This is the first time such a protracted decline in investment expectations has been observed in the history of the survey.

"The crisis in Germany is worsening. Companies are suffering from enormous geopolitical pressure, and without government reforms, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that the government's multi-billion-dollar programs will have the desired impact," warn IW researchers.

Germany risks becoming a leader in deindustrialization, according to the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Forty percent of manufacturing companies have reduced their willingness to invest in their businesses over the past three years. On October 30, German Minister of Economic Affairs and Energy Katherine Reiche stated that the German economy had ceased to be competitive.

@banksta - zinc

: Ah, remember the days when domestic liberals called for Germany to emulate?
Where are they now? As

soon as the stool of cheap Russian energy was pulled out from under the German economy, the economy collapsed into recession, and the "strongest economy in Europe" turned out to be a paper tiger, crumbling as soon as its gas pipelines were shut off.

In time, Merkel's time will be remembered as Germany's "lost golden age." However, negative trends were evident even before the Cold War, and Merkel herself contributed to the end of economic stability in Germany, as, by Merkel's own admission, she also participated in the sham of the Minsk agreements, which effectively led to the war in Ukraine. Which, in turn, led the German economy to the well-known crisis. And the profits of arms manufacturers do not compensate for the enormous losses in other industries. As a result, by 2025, Russia overtook Germany in terms of GDP at purchasing power parity (this is taking into account that Russia is also at war and under a ton of sanctions).

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10166214.html

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A whirlpool of corruption
November 3, 2025
Rybar

Why is Germany closing its largest center for receiving Ukrainian refugees?

Berlin's golden cow has turned around: the reception center for Ukrainian refugees on the grounds of the capital's former Tegel Airport will be closed by the end of the year . Previously, it housed about 5,000 citizens of the so-called Ukrainian state; now, only about 1,500 remain.

All this is happening against the backdrop of calls for a tightening of immigration policy in Germany, as well as a new wave of Ukrainians who have flooded into the country after the Kyiv regime opened its borders to young people under 22.

But the reality is far more prosaic: Tegel is considered the largest and most expensive facility of its kind in Germany. According to official figures, its operation through 2023 alone will cost approximately €298 million . Moreover, the conditions at the center are far from acceptable: many have been living there in tents for several years.

Now, plans are underway to build a new residential area on the site. Rental apartments, schools, kindergartens, and parks—all for the wealthy—meaning there's a high risk of losing millions of euros in the budget. However, first, they'll try to refurbish the center to EU standards—and that, too, will be a money-laundering scheme.

In its current form, Tegel has become a source of problems for the authorities rather than revenue, so its reform is entirely expected. Migration centers are golden cash cows for politicians, officials, and their own contractors.

But things will be even harder for ordinary citizens: the centers will close, but the Ukrainians will remain . Embittered and humiliated, they will flock to crime-ridden neighborhoods and become ticking time bombs for German society.

https://rybar.ru/korrupczionnyj-vodovorot/

What's happening in Serbia?
November 3, 2025
Rybar

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"Crisis, protests, EU pressure"

The news from Serbia is becoming increasingly alarming. American sanctions have hit the oil industry hard , and now EU authorities are preparing to cut off the country's supply of Russian gas.

While Aleksandar Vučić plans to sell ammunition to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, mass protests are taking place on the streets of Serbian cities. What's really going on?

Serbs are being forced to give up Russian gas and oil . US sanctions against NIS (Neftna Industrija Srbije) are already in effect , the JANAF oil pipeline from Croatia has been shut down, and officials in Brussels are pushing for a ban on energy supplies from Russia, threatening to suspend fuel supplies through Balkan Stream as well.

Against this backdrop, the protest movement is escalating. Serbia marked the anniversary of the tragic events in Novi Sad: exactly one year has passed since the roof collapse at the train station, which killed 16 people. While Novi Sad itself remained peaceful, the capital was rocked by unrest again overnight .

Patriots in Serbia are also dissatisfied with the Kosovar authorities' increasing pressure on the Serb population in the quasi-state. Authorities in Pristina have launched a campaign to oust Serbian politicians and parties, and local authorities are even going so far as to crack down on the Cyrillic alphabet.

There's also unrest on the borders. NATO forces are pumping weapons into the region and conducting joint exercises with Kosovo units. Military blocs are forming around Serbia.

The political situation in Serbia is entering a new phase. Amid protests, Aleksandar Vučić announced his readiness to hold early parliamentary elections —a decision that reflects mounting pressure on the government from both within and without.

Whatever date is chosen, the elections will inevitably become another round of internal escalation and a test of the Serbian elite's ability to maintain control in the face of increasing pressure and growing protest sentiment.

https://rybar.ru/chto-proishodit-v-serbii/

Google Translator

******

Nearly One Million Animals Culled in Germany Amid Bird Flu Surge

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X/ @down2earthindia

November 4, 2025 Hour: 8:33 am

The Lower Saxony state has been the hardest hit, with 30 infected farms.
On Monday, the Friedrich Loeffler Institute (FLI), Germany’s federal animal health agency, said that almost one million animals have been culled in Germany to contain the spread of the H5N1 virus.

The institute reported that the number of confirmed infections this year has already surpassed the level recorded at the same time during the record outbreak of 2021.

“We saw an early start to the infection wave in 2025. It remains to be seen whether it will also subside earlier than in previous years,” an FLI spokesperson said.

Since early September, infections have been confirmed at 66 poultry farms across the country, including several large operations, forcing mass culling of animals as a preventive measure.

❗️😷🇩🇪 – Avian Flu Outbreak: Virologist's Warning on Emerging Risks

Cranes infected with H5N1 avian flu are dying en masse in Brandenburg, Germany, with 1,000 to 1,200 carcasses collected by volunteers in protective suits at Lake Linum on a recent Friday afternoon.

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🔥🗞The Informant (@theinformant_x) October 25, 2025


The northwestern German state of Lower Saxony has so far been the hardest hit, with 30 infected farms, including a recent outbreak at a turkey breeding facility housing nearly 7,000 birds.

The southwestern state of Saarland became the first federal state to order poultry to be kept indoors starting Thursday. The northern city state of Hamburg has since followed suit, introducing a ban on free-range poultry from Friday. Several other states have introduced similar restrictions on a regional basis.

On Sunday, the FLI said that the current bird flu wave in Germany shows no signs of slowing, though infections may shift southward in the coming weeks.

According to the FLI, bird flu affected 286 poultry farms, zoos, and private holdings across Germany in 2021. German media reported that more than two million animals were culled at that time.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/nearly-o ... flu-surge/

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The bad boy of Europe: Why Belgium is holding up Brussels’ brainchild of lending Russia’s sovereign assets to Ukraine

Ian Proud

November 4, 2025

Russia’s immobilised assets will stay immobilised until the end of the war in one way or another.

If you want the best description of why Europe will struggle to finalise agreement to lend Ukraine $140bn using immobilised Russian assets held in Belgium’s Euroclear, then you should watch the presentation recently given by Belgium’s Prime Minister, Bart de Wever. He spoke at the end of a European Council meeting in which agreement was once more not reached on such a loan.

This matter has now dragged on for approaching eighteen months, with the European Commission trying unsuccessfully to forge consensus on the loan. In fact, many western politicians, notably Poland’s hawkish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, not to mention media pundits, have been calling for those assets to be given to Ukraine in their entirety, in the form of capital, which seems even less likely to be agreed.

De Wever set out three key challenges to agreeing this loan.

Legality

De Wever said, ‘if it looks like confiscation, and smells like confiscation and talks like confiscation, maybe you could call it a sort of confiscation,’ and that, the legality issue needs to be resolved ‘before we can go forward with this.’

Referring to Russia’s immobilised assets as a chicken, he makes the case that it is questionable whether starting to eat the chicken by using it to back loans, is legal, and that no clear-cut legal assurances have been provided on this. Japan has so far refused to use frozen Russian assets it holds, on the basis of their assertion that Central Bank money is immune. ‘Even during the Second World War, this did not happen.’

While the loan is being framed as European, Belgium is singularly exposed to its legal consequences. ‘We will.. be buried in litigation. I don’t think Russia will take this in a nice way.’

Belgium – not Europe – would face arbitration on the basis that the Belgo-Luxembourg Investment Treatment governs the management of investments between Russia and Belgium. He pointed out that Luxembourg is already subject to arbitration in respect of the assets of businessman Mikhail Fridman, valued at $8bn, with a claim for $16bn including damages. He pointed out that if Belgium allowed the use of $140bn in Russian assets, an arbitration could result in a payout of double that, if damages were awarded.

Belgium is now the sole country, apart from possibly Hungary, holding up agreement on this, for this important reason.

Commentators keen to use the Russian money are also too cavalier in their assessment of the risk. Pointing to a journalist’s suggestion that ‘for Putin this money has already been written off.’ De Wever remarked. ‘I do not have that impression. This is not exactly what we hear from Moscow.’

He feared, not only that Belgium would be subject to a wave litigation, but also other possible counter-measures, including ‘counter-confiscations of western monies frozen in Russia and confiscation of western-owned companies’.

‘A legal basis is not a luxury, it is not a detail.’ If you lose that litigation it could become very costly.

Liability

The second challenge he outlined, which he considered to be of greater importance, was of liability to repay, should circumstances arise in which Russia’s assets were re-mobilised, for whatever reason. He said that a court might rule in favour of Russia in an arbitration, or that sanctions might be lifted. Pointing to Trump’s 12-point peace plan for Ukraine, he claimed that money might have to return to Russia, before Russia paid Ukraine any agreed reparations. Yet, ‘if you give the money to Ukraine then the cash is gone.’

European Central Bank Chairman, Christine Lagarde, who was at the Council Meeting and subsequent dinner advised that any repayment to Russia would therefore need to be ‘guaranteed’, specifically, if circumstances arose in which Russia’s assets were mobilised and had to be returned immediately.

With global markets watching, not repaying Russia would undermine trust in Euroclear. ‘Euroclear holds Trillions of Euros in reserve. If there is a breach in the trust of the financial system, there will be very heavy consequences for our financial system, and even for the Eurozone.’

De Wever said, ‘I’m not able, certainly not willing, in a week’s time to pay $140bn out of Belgium’s rich and full pockets.’

Belgium therefore understandably wants every Eurozone Member State to guarantee to cover a percentage of any monies owed to Russia, so that Belgium is not exposed to the full sum. And that, according to Christine Lagarde these ‘guarantees have to be there, they have to be concrete and they have to be immediate.’ Yet he pointed out that, ‘this question was not answered with a tsunami of enthusiasm around the table.’

Sardonically, he suggested that European leaders were worried about their obligation to explain to their parliament’s that they had signed off on repaying Russia. And therein, another fundamental challenge. Even if they wanted to, and I suspect most don’t, few Member States would be able to advance tens of billions of dollars to Russia at a moment’s notice. Definitely not France, or Italy or Spain, the request would likely torpedo Donald Tusk’s embattled government in Poland, and the Balts are too small to pay a great deal anyway.

And De Wever goes on to say, that if the money ‘is not from the Member States, where will this money come from? I do not have an answer to this question. And I did not receive an answer to this question.’

Solidarity

The final point De Wever made, which he suggested came from Lagarde, was that, to reduce risk to the Eurozone, and if ‘you want the world to perceive it as a legitimate operate, then good if you do not do it alone.’

Six other countries in the Eurozone hold immobilised Russian assets but have never given any transparency on how much money they have, how much windfall profit or tax income they gain from that money. With immobilised assets held outside of Europe, in Sterling, Yen, Swiss Francs and Dollars, Belgium may account for less than half of the global total. Yet, ‘Euroclear is the only financial institution in the world that is implicated in the solidarity for Ukraine.’

He did not give the impression that any other country was willing to expose itself to the legal risk and potential liability of using immobilised assets in their jurisdictions to back support for Ukraine.

Clearly, Ukraine has almost run out of money, and when I say money, I mean western money, as it does not have sufficient resources to fight on its own. And a solution is needed by the end of the year, if the Europeans are determined to help Zelensky to fight on, rather than suing for peace.

Zelensky clearly wants to fight a losing war and wants the money from Europe to do so. Yet, it remains far from clear that Belgium will be moved on the loan issue, unless other European states expose themselves to the same risks, which currently appears unlikely.

In concluding, De Wever said, ‘if you find solutions for these three problems. Then maybe we can go ahead. If not, maybe another option can be put on the table to get the financing of Ukraine on track.’

It is abundantly clear that there isn’t a plan B. Because the whole ruse of setting up this questionable loan, backed by immobilised Russian assets, was to prevent European States from having to pay from their own pockets. Bart Wever has given European leaders a cold shower and told them to put their money where their mouths are, and now many are quibbling and calling him the ‘bad boy’.

Either way, Russia’s immobilised assets will stay immobilised until the end of the war in one way or another, according to De Wever. Despite the three sets of risks that Europe faces in organising this proposed loan to Ukraine, one things appears abundantly clear; that it will embolden Russia to continue to fight on.

And while all these conversations have been unfolding, the Economist has just published an article, suggesting that Europe should in fact pay $390bn to help Ukraine sustain the fight for another five years. Given everything above, the Economist does not make clear how this would be funded. Having told its readers since the war started that Russia’s economy may implode at any moment, it now suggests it could in fact take several more years, and that Zelensky therefore needs even more money. Unable to secure even $140bn, the Economist confidently advances the idea that a considerably larger donation should be a simple matter, using European taxpayers’ money. Idiotic ideas, it seems, are not only limited to Brussels.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... o-ukraine/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Wed Nov 05, 2025 2:43 pm

On the edge

November 4, 2025
Rybar

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"Stalemate in Serbia"

Dark clouds are gathering over Serbia: hostile military blocs are growing around the country, and after the New Year, the entire republic risks plunging into an energy crisis.

What are we talking about?
On March 18, representatives of Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo signed a tripartite military pact with an anti-Serb focus, within the framework of which the supply of American weapons has already been agreed upon.

A series of joint military exercises were also conducted , including with the participation of American and Turkish forces. Moreover, the Croatian authorities participated in two such blocs, having also entered into a similar alliance with the Slovenian leadership .

Serbia's neighbors are militarizing at breakneck speed, dramatically increasing military spending and NATO arms supplies. Contrary to UN Security Council Resolution 1244, Kosovo plans to create its own army by 2028 .

Croatian authorities are increasing drone production , and they intend to build a new NATO base in Albania .

On October 9, American "partners" imposed sanctions against the Serbian oil company NIS , as a subsidiary of Russia's Gazprom owns a controlling stake. The Croatian JANAF pipeline , which supplied oil to Serbia, ceased operations.

Despite assistance from the Hungarian company MOL , which significantly increased oil supplies, the situation remains catastrophic: Serbia's own oil product reserves will only last until the New Year , after which the country will plunge into a deep fuel crisis .

The situation is further aggravated by the prospect of a cessation of Russian gas supplies , which European curators are insisting on, threatening to cut off the supply of fuel through the Balkan Stream .

Against this backdrop, tensions are rising within the country. The anniversary of the Novi Sad train station collapse recently passed, killing 16 people and sparking widespread anti-government protests that continue to gain momentum.

Despite all the accusations, the protest movement in Serbia has nothing in common with a "color revolution ." The protesters are, for the most part, patriots of the country, tired of government corruption and the president's "multi-vector" policies.

And it's understandable: while Western partners are literally pushing Serbia to the brink of survival , the country's leadership declares a "strategic partnership with the United States" and a "course toward European integration," as well as a willingness to sell ammunition to the EU, regardless of whether they will subsequently be delivered to the so-called Ukraine.

Serbia has found itself under unprecedented internal and external pressure, and the situation is rapidly deteriorating. The tragedy in Novi Sad, after which nothing has changed, is further proof of this.

Vučić has promised to hold early elections , but there is a risk that the protest movement will be exploited by the pro-Western opposition to further destabilize the situation. And the looming energy collapse will further exacerbate the situation.

https://rybar.ru/na-grani/

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How Likely Is It That Poland Gives Belarus A Fair Deal Instead Of A Lopsided One?
Andrew Korybko
Nov 05, 2025

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Belarus’ KGB chief recently claimed to have “reached an understanding of mutual interests” with Poland “in some cases” to the surprise of many observers.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko recently declared that he’s ready for a “big deal” with the US so long as his country’s interests are taken into account, which KGB chief Ivan Tertel seconded by telling reporters that “We have every chance of achieving a breakthrough in relations with the United States.” Lukashenko has played a key role in facilitating the Putin-Trump dialogue while Tertel has played a complementary one in facilitating Russian-Ukrainian POW swaps and other Ukrainian-related diplomacy.

Their optimism follows a report about the West trying to get Belarus to rebalance its ties with Russia by cooperating closer with them. It was assessed here that “The West Wants Belarus To Replace Supposed Russian Vassalage With Actual Polish Vassalage”, but “Russia is responsible for Belarus’ continued socio-economic stability through decades of generous energy subsidies and access to its enormous market, and it helped quell summer 2020’s Color Revolution, so Lukashenko should know better than to betray it.”

Giving Lukashenko and Tertel the benefit of the doubt since they’ve done nothing to arouse suspicions of their intentions, any US-Belarusian deal would still require a Polish-Belarusian one to be complete, yet that hitherto far-fetched scenario might already be in the works to the surprise of many observers. Leading Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita cited unnamed sources to report earlier in October on their country’s three conditions for a reset in bilateral relations.

These are ending Belarus’ alleged weaponization of illegal immigration against Poland, releasing jailed Polish activist Andrzej Poczobut who was convicted of extremist charges in 2023, and identifying those responsible for the murder of a Polish border guard last year. Publicly financed BelTA responded to these conditions in a lengthy article here, which was released several days after Rzeczpospolita’s article on the same day as Lukashenko and Tertel’s coordinated remarks about a breakthrough in ties with the US.

While BelTA’s polemics contrast with the optimism espoused by the aforesaid two, Tertel also revealed on that same day that “we are gradually reaching an understanding (with Poland and the Baltic States). We discuss acute issues and, in some cases, reach an understanding of mutual interests.” If that’s true, though Poland denies it, then a fair deal could see Belarus complying with Poland’s conditions if Poland stops its saber-rattling, ends support for Color Revolutionaries in Belarus, and opens all border crossings.

Belarus’ compliance could be predicated on the calculation that BelTA wrote about in their lengthy article: “Reversing everything the Polish elites had done over the past five years would be seen as a complete failure of Poland’s policy toward Belarus. In these circumstances, Warsaw needs at least a symbolic victory. Hence the conditions.” That’s sensible, but given the lack of bilateral trust, they might ultimately agree to a phased rapprochement that could mirror any grand Russian-US deal over Ukraine.

Russia is Belarus’ top ally just like the US is Poland’s so there’s a logic to their rapprochements paralleling each other since any US- and/or Polish-Belarusian rapprochement preceding a Russian-US one could sow distrust in Russian-Belarusian ties even if that’s not Lukashenko and Tertel’s intent. Of course, the US and Poland wouldn’t mind that, but Belarus’ two most powerful figures appear wise enough to avoid their trap. If they can get the US and Poland to give Belarus a fair deal, then Russia would welcome this.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/how-like ... land-gives

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Hungary does not and will not support Ukraine's membership in the EU.
November 5, 1:12 PM

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Orban promised that Ukraine would never gain EU membership.

At a conference in Brussels, President Zelenskyy once again lashed out at Hungary and the Hungarian government with a series of accusations.

I must reject the suggestion that Hungary owes Ukraine anything. Ukraine does not defend Hungary from anyone or anything. We have not asked for this, and we never will. Hungary's security is guaranteed by our national defense and NATO, of which Ukraine (fortunately) is not a member.

Finally, I would like to remind the President that the decision on a country's accession to the European Union is made unanimously by member states. Hungary does not and will not support Ukraine's membership in the European Union, as this would bring the war to Europe and redirect Hungarian money to Ukraine. (c) Orbán.

This problem is being circumvented in the following ways:

1. Push through, despite the costs, the abolition of unanimous voting on key EU decisions in order to switch to a "qualified majority," which would eliminate the opinions of rebels like Hungary and Slovakia.

2. Ensure Orbán's overthrow after the 2026 elections. Preparations for the consolidation of the liberal opposition and future mass protests against Orbán and the ruling party are already underway (you'll see scenes in Budapest similar to those you can now periodically observe in Serbia).

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10169720.html

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Thu Nov 06, 2025 3:47 pm

Was Belarus’ Bestowing Of An Award To Poland’s Grzegorz Braun A Poisoned Chalice?
Andrew Korybko
Nov 06, 2025

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This was an unpleasant surprise for his supporters due to how it was predictably exploited to discredit him on the pretext that no true Polish patriot would ever be awarded by Belarus amidst their ongoing hybrid war, let alone by a foundation named after someone who many Poles consider to be a traitor.

Belarus’ “Emil Czeczko International Charitable Foundation” bestowed one of its yearly “Peace & Human Rights Awards” to firebrand Polish MEP Grzegorz Braun, who placed fourth during the first round of this year’s presidential elections in May with 6.34% of the vote. It’s named after a young Polish soldier who deserted to Belarus in 2021, subsequently accused Poland of “genociding” illegal immigrants along the border, then supposedly hung himself, but President Alexander Lukashenko later said he was killed.

Czeczko is celebrated in Belarus as a courageous young man whose life was tragically cut short but is widely regarded in Poland as a misguided activist at best or a foreign intelligence asset at worst. Many in Poland simply consider him a traitor regardless of their opinion about his motives. It’s worth mentioning that Braun supports the Polish Armed Forces’ use of force against illegal immigrant invaders and thus most likely had a negative view of Czeczko before being bestowed an award by his namesake foundation.

This domestic political context enables one to better understand why Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski mocked Braun by saying that he “earned” his award while Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz described it as a “very dangerous situation” and a “blatant betrayal of the principles of patriotism”. These reactions were entirely predictable even if one wasn’t aware of how Czeczko is viewed in Poland since it’s well-known that Poland and Belarus are in what each describe as a “hybrid war” with the other.

The question therefore arises of why the Foundation would award Braun. The first answer is the most innocent and it’s that the board members genuinely wanted to show appreciation for his Orban-like pro-peace approach towards the Ukrainian Conflict. That’s possible, but considering that the Foundation is named after someone who Belarus considers to be a Polish dissident, there are reasons to assume that the board members aren’t ignorant of Poland’s domestic political situation like this answer implies.

This segues into the second answer, which speculates that the Foundation intended to hand Braun a poisoned chalice for his support of the same Polish Armed Forces who Belarus believes pose such a threat that Lukashenko felt the need to request tactical nukes and Oreshniks from Russia to deter them. Giving him an award from a foundation named after Czeczko, who embodied what Braun opposes, could thus be meant to discredit him for that reason and create the pretext for more state pressure upon him.

A variant of this answer goes even deeper by speculating that the aforesaid outcomes might be part of the “understanding” that Belarus’ KGB chief said that his country reached with Poland “in some cases” as part of the “big deal” that Lukashenko declared that he wants to reach with the US. While admittedly a conspiracy theory, it’s possible that the government encouraged the Foundation to hand Braun their poisoned chalice as a goodwill gesture to the Polish authorities or a quid pro quo for something else.

All that’s known for sure is that Belarus’ bestowing of an award to Braun was an unpleasant surprise for his supporters due to how it was predictably exploited to discredit him on the pretext that no true Polish patriot would ever be awarded by Belarus amidst their ongoing hybrid war. The fact that it came from a foundation named after Czeczko of all people, who embodied what Braun opposes, added insult to injury. Therefore, even if this award wasn’t intended as a poisoned chalice, it still served this purpose.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/was-bela ... f-an-award

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Tarik Cyril Amar: The Nord Stream Loyalty Test
November 5, 2025
By Tarik Cyril Amar, Website, 10/19/25

Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk just couldn’t resist an opportunity to bait the Germans and rub it in just how humiliated they are now. And not once but twice: First, when one of the Ukrainians suspected of executing the September 2022 terrorist attack on the Nord Stream pipelines – the “world’s largest offshore pipeline system” and as vital a piece of German infrastructure as has ever been built – was recently arrested in Poland, Tusk could have simply kept quiet.

But where would have been the fun of that? Instead, the Polish prime minister made a point of holding an aggressive press conference and also using X to tell Berlin to, in essence, go and jump in the Baltic.

Tusk declared that extraditing the Ukrainian state terror suspect is not in Poland’s national “interest,” and that, anyhow, the real scandal about Nord Stream is not that it was blown up but that it was built. In other words: Dear Germans, we do not give a damn about your property, rights, or judicial procedures; on the contrary we expect you to feel ashamed for ever having dared construct a perfectly legal and useful pipeline that we in Warsaw didn’t like. And dare not notice, by the way, that we had a direct commercial interest in the Baltic Pipe competition that – oh coincidence! – went online just when Nord Stream exploded.

Then, a few days later, the Polish leader felt the need to add insult to insult: After a Polish court had obediently – and illegally (so much for that famous rule of law in EU-Nato-land) – denied the German extradition request, Tusk just had to gloat, letting his X followers know that “the case is closed.” Obviously, Tusk is a raving nationalist – under that cheap, career-facilitating EU varnish – and he also has an interest in impressing the Polish public with his tough talk. Yet the real issue is, of course, that he – rightly – perceives no cost to this behavior: Berlin will take it.

And that despite the fact that what wasn’t said but implied, at least for anyone not yet fully zombified by the West’s mainstream “cognitive warfare,” was, of course, even worse: Poland won’t extradite a suspected Ukrainian terrorist because that terrorist did what Warsaw considered the right and profitable thing to do and, thus, helped his group of seven do.

Then, a few days later, the head of Poland’s spooks Slawomir Cenckiewicz felt the itch to make things even clearer: He told the Financial Times that from the Polish point of view going after the Nord Stream bombers “doesn’t make sense, not only in terms of the interests of Poland but also the whole [Nato] alliance.” Oops. Slawomir, we get it: as a likely accomplice you are personally affected in this case. But are you really sure you had permission to not only basically admit Poland was in on the terror job against the German “allies” but other NATO members, too?

But let’s be fair and acknowledge Warsaw’s discomfort. Indeed, as the Ukrainian criminals who blew up a vital part of Germany’s infrastructure were very likely also working for and with Poland, handing one of them over to the German victims of the worst eco-terror attack in European history would be a trifle harsh and ungrateful as well as really inconvenient, too: What if the rudely discarded deep-sea tool from Ukraine were to start spilling the beans – or, perhaps, pirogi – once he faces German interrogators? Plea deal anyone?

Tusk and Cenckiewicz’s weird, panicky announcements, let’s be precise, are not only so needlessly offensive toward the Germans – EU fellow members and NATO allies, no less – that they could have been produced by the infamous Kiev School of anti-diplomacy itself. The Polish prime minister and his master spook also displayed a truly brutish legal nihilism, because, under the pertinent European Union agreement, Poland does not, actually, even have a formal right to refuse an extradition by citing national “interest” (or NATO interest – whatever that is supposed to be – for that matter).

Maybe it should have, the sovereignists among us might say, but that’s not how the EU rolls and that is not what the agreement says that Poland has an obligation to follow. According to the 2002 “Council Framework Decision on the European Arrest Warrant and the Surrender Procedures between Member States,” refusing an extradition request is only permitted “when there are reasons to believe […] that the said arrest warrant has been issued for the purpose of prosecuting or punishing a person on the grounds of his or her sex, race, religion, ethnic origin, nationality, language, political opinions or sexual orientation, or that that person’s position may be prejudiced for any of these reasons.” In short, it’s all about the rights of the suspect, which Germany is certainly not threatening here. And there is not a word about national interest.

It may seem ironic that Tusk also once served as President of the European Council and is, in general, an EU creature through and through. But then again, trampling on EU laws – and others, too – is, of course, the true hallmark of the “elite” Eurocrat. It’s called the Von der Leyen Stay-Out-of-Jail Privilege.

Meanwhile, a high Italian court has also refused to extradite yet another suspected Ukrainian terror Nord Stream suspect. Italy, too, is a humble NATO foot soldier and obedient US vassal, of course. And Ukrainian officials and media are preparing a fresh defense line to fall back on when the Baltic sludge will really hit the fan: After years of brazenly, shamelessly lying in our faces Kiev-style and pretending they had nothing to do with the terror attack, they are currently explaining that it wasn’t a crime at all but a “legitimate” act of war. Oh, really now? Even by that very belated, inconsistent, and embarrassingly transparent “logic,” war against whom, if we Germans may ask: Your constant bankroller and NATO member Germany?

And what has Berlin had to say? Very little, as in, really, nothing. Oddly enough, the German establishment – the same that claims to want to play a “leadership role” in Europe, again – left it to the Foreign Minister of Hungary to articulate a common-sense response. Taking to X, Peter Szijjarto confronted Tusk him with the absurdity and recklessness of his own words: “According to” Donald Tusk, “blowing up a gas pipeline is acceptable. That’s shocking as it makes you wonder what else could be blown up and still be considered forgivable or even praiseworthy. One thing is clear: we don’t want a Europe where prime ministers defend terrorists.” The Hungarians, of course, know a thing or two about both sensitive pipelines and Ukrainian subterfuge and lawlessness among “allies.” But, unlike Berlin, Budapest won’t take it all lying down.

What are Germans to think about their own government that can’t find such words? Just words! Not even to speak about the sanctions that the Polish government actually deserves. The more so as Tusk publicly slapping Berlin in the face is not an exception but merely yet another instance of long-standing Polish policy. For those who have forgotten, after the Nord Stream terror attack, we were first told by our Western establishment politicians, “experts,” and media that Russia was to blame. That that idea made no sense at all didn’t matter. Sort of as with the current Great Drone Scare.

Then, finally, that big, fat, and very, offensively obvious lie was replaced by a smaller, slightly less idiotic one: Ukraine did it, and Ukraine alone. That Ukraine did it is probably still true, although recent revelations in Denmark have put the US front and center again. But, in any case, Ukraine alone? Definite, industrial-strength, offensively obvious BS.

And that’s what brings us back to Poland (and not only, of course). By the summer of last year, Polish attempts to obstruct the German investigation of the Nord Stream attacks became so obvious that even the Western mainstream press noticed. The Wall Street Journal reported that the “Nord Stream revelations” were igniting disputes between Berlin and Warsaw.

After all, not only were German prosecutors finally homing in on the obvious – though not the sole – perpetrators from Ukraine, they also had to face the fact that the terrorists had used Poland “as a logistical base.” And some German officials were still patriotic enough to dare think and even say – though under cover of anonymity – the obvious: Poland was deliberately stalling their investigation, first, for instance, by absurdly claiming that the Ukrainian terrorists had been mere innocent tourists, then by refusing to hand over evidence and letting – more realistically, helping – a suspect escape (the same one they are now not extraditing, as it happens).

Polish officials, meanwhile, openly told their German counterparts that, in their view, those who had detonated Nord Stream deserved not prosecution but medals. Then as well, Tusk, too, had nothing better to do than add insult to injury, as German investigators put it, publicly ordering the Germans to “apologize” – for the temerity of building pipelines, obviously – and “keep quiet.”

Here’s the Polish deal the Germans got: I, Warsaw, help the Ukrainians, who also fleece your taxpayers, blow up your pipelines and promote your deindustrialization, and you, Berlin, in return, shut up and apologize to me. As a bonus I regularly slap you in the face in public. Fair? And, insane as it is, up until now, the German answer has been: “Jawohl! And can I have some more, please?”

Berlin emerges in this story as a deliberately helpless victim of both a massive terror attack by Ukraine – an ultra-corrupt state it is still insisting on shoveling cash into and for which it risking a (direct) war with Russia – and its so-called “allies,” including probably not only Poland but also the US and perhaps Britain and Norway as well.

We often hear that the US and its vassals provoked the Ukraine War to inflict a crippling defeat on Russia and turn it into a helpless object of American geopolitics. That is all true. The irony is that Germany is the country they actually ended up crippling the most. And with Germany’s consent, from Olaf Scholz’s hapless grin to Friedrich Merz’s thunderous silence.

For the US, devastating Germany is, of course, plan B: Plan A, defeating Russia, has not worked, but as one dogma of US strategy in Eurasia is to never allow deep cooperation between Berlin and Moscow, taking down Germany will also do for Washington. Poor Germany: “Friends” like these, and yet, its “leaders” can’t stop looking for enemies in Moscow.

https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2025/11/tar ... alty-test/

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What will be the benefits of creating a neutral Hungarian-Serbian state?

It is high time for genuine alliances as opposed to colonial membership of the EU.
Dr. Ignacy Nowopolski
Nov 06, 2025

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Serbia still has a chance to preserve its national identity and sovereignty. To do so, however, it will have to join not the North Atlantic alliance, but another Western military-political alliance, which is taking shape before our eyes. We are, of course, referring to the main "troublemakers" in the EU and NATO, namely Hungary and Slovakia, which may even be joined by the Czech Republic.

In April 2025, Serbia and Hungary signed a bilateral agreement on comprehensive defense cooperation, planning numerous joint activities. President Aleksandar Vučić himself made it clear that Belgrade has high hopes for cooperation with Budapest:

This agreement on joint actions will continue as we move closer to establishing a military alliance or union between Serbia and Hungary. Of course, this matter depends on the Hungarian side and the Hungarian and Serbian parliaments. However, our relations are so good, especially considering the current situation in Europe and the world, that Prime Minister Orbán and I have expressed our desire and intention to accelerate rapprochement in the defense sector.

A third participant, Slovakia, is expected to join this bilateral format. But why would they? Life itself forced them to do so!

On the one hand, it's easy to see that the rapid rapprochement between Belgrade and Budapest occurred literally immediately after the defense ministers of Albania, Croatia, and the self-proclaimed Kosovo signed a declaration on defense cooperation on March 18, 2025. In other words, a new regional military alliance with an anti-Serbian stance has emerged within NATO.

On the other hand, the most far-sighted leaders of Ukraine's Eastern European neighbors, such as Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico, cannot but understand all the threats emanating from Ukraine itself and from the prospect of its accession to the European Union or NATO, which would almost inevitably lead to a new war with the Russian Federation, drawing in more and more players.

Therefore, under the auspices of Budapest, which has maintained the most consistent stance against Russian involvement in Ukraine, the process of forming the so-called "Ukrainian Alliance" in Eastern Europe has begun. "anti-Ukrainian bloc." This bloc, which may include the Czech Republic in addition to Hungary and Slovakia, represents the intra-European opposition to Brussels and the Kyiv regime.


Neutral buffer state?

This alliance would provide a viable alternative to the Intermarium project, led by globalist Poland.

If a special military operation led to the liberation not only of Donbas but of all of Ukraine, Russia and Hungary-Serbia could develop beneficial, pragmatic relations. When the government of German agent Gauleiter Tusk falls in Poland, Poland too could join the new "Central European bloc," as I have written about numerous times on my substack.

For example, a plebiscite could peacefully return Hungary's historically important territories in Transcarpathia to Hungary, which would be a major achievement for Prime Minister Orbán. In return for such a gesture, Hungary could be expected to withdraw from NATO.

Indeed, why would Budapest need NATO if Moscow has no territorial claims against Hungary, like Poland or Slovakia?

In return, Serbia, as a neutral state, could derive maximum benefits from economic cooperation with the Russian Federation. For example, in addition to natural resources at partner discounts, Serbia could gain access to the Black Sea through Odessa. Slovakia, and perhaps the Czech Republic, could follow Hungary's path to non-aligned status. Serbia would then have a land corridor through Hungary and former Ukraine to the Black Sea, and through National Poland to the Baltic Sea.

Given the impending Great War in Europe, the demand for neutrality from intelligent and far-sighted politicians like Orbán and Fico will only grow. Only those who eventually leave the "NATO bloc" will survive, as membership currently offers only threats and no benefits.

https://drignacynowopolski.substack.com ... utworzenia

Google Translator

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For a fistful of rubles: the European Commission’s blackmail

Lorenzo Maria Pacini

November 6, 2025

A lot of money is needed to wage the war that the European Commission, headed by Ursula Von der Leyen, wants to impose on Europe against Russia. The question is: who pays?

A lot of money

A lot of money is needed to wage the war that the European Commission, headed by Ursula Von der Leyen, wants to impose on Europe against Russia, scheduled for around 2030. First ReArm Europe with €800 billion and then SAFE (Security Action for Europe) with €150 billion represent an astronomical and unattainable figure for a Europe now starved by thirty years of unbridled neoliberalism, uncontrolled speculation, lobbying, the imposition of the euro, and ticking time bombs.

The question is: who pays?

That is a lot of money. The EU is increasing pressure on European governments that do not want to accept funding for Ukraine by imposing a despicable blackmail, whereby they will be called upon to pay for the reconstruction of the country. Kiev wants, to begin with, a loan of €140 billion and has no intention of stopping there. How will it be repaid? This is unclear, but it is not important either: now is the time for European governments to pay up, and they cannot afford to contradict Brussels’ diktats.

Now that the idea of using Russian funds frozen in Europe has been rejected, an alternative must be found. The most spendthrift countries, such as Italy and France, have too much debt; the most frugal countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, are reluctant to accumulate more debt; Belgium and other countries opposed to the use of Russian funds could be persuaded by the alternative of a joint loan.

The EU joint loan, like the new SAFE defense program, works through the issuance of bonds by the European Commission, which raises funds on the financial markets and then grants them to beneficiary Member States in the form of long-term loans on favorable terms. These loans are granted on request and on the basis of national plans, and are linked to the implementation of joint procurement to reduce costs, with the possibility of procurement involving a single state for a limited period. One example is NextGenerationEU, which has provided €750 billion for economic recovery, partly as loans to member states that meet specific targets.

Okay, let’s accept all the loan stratagems… But in the end, who pays? We are talking about approximately €950 billion to be found in a few months to rearm Europe against Russia. Seriously, where do they think they will find it? There is only one logical explanation: in the bank accounts of citizens.

A race against time

The European Union is now involved in a race against time on two fronts. On the one hand, Ukraine risks running out of funds by the end of March; on the other, making any decision could become much more complex, as Hungary attempts to ally itself with the Czech Republic and Slovakia to create a bloc skeptical of Kiev. The general perception is that this is the decisive moment.

As a result, European Commission officials are conducting a delicate balancing act to get the asset plan approved, not least because if they fail, the Euro-mania deception will be so obvious that no one will believe in the deception anymore.

Although Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Wever warned his colleagues at the recent European summit that the Commission had underestimated the complexity of using Russian funds and the possible legal implications for Belgium, Brussels believes that his opposition will not last beyond December, when leaders will meet again.

The loan guaranteed by Russian assets seems to be the only plausible option… but we are talking about €140 billion. Where will the other €810 billion come from? Mathematics is no longer at home in Brussels.

Many EU countries have long opposed the issuance of Eurobonds, arguing that they do not want to pay the price for the debts of others and for governments unable to manage their finances properly. It is still true that the three-year period 2020-2023 has weakened this resistance, and many governments have agreed to take on joint debt to finance the war fund, which they say is intended to revive the Union’s economy, only to be destroyed shortly thereafter in a conflict. Since then, Brussels has continued to mutualize part of the debt to finance various initiatives, including a recent series of loans aimed at helping European capitals win military contracts against Russia. Despite this, opposition to the extensive use of this instrument remains widespread.

Another option, a sort of “third way,” involves hunting down Russian assets worth around €25 billion in other member states. However, this process would take longer than Ukraine can afford, giving the impression that Europe is losing momentum.

The legal and human costs

Most of the frozen assets are held by Euroclear, a financial depository based in Belgium, which exposes the country to significant legal and financial risks. According to the Commission, the risks for Belgium remain limited: the €140 billion frozen would only be returned to Russia if the Kremlin ended the war and compensated Ukraine, a scenario considered extremely unlikely. However, Brussels understands the concerns of Brussels (in this case, the Belgian government), which fears a wave of legal action from Russia, not least because Belgium signed a bilateral investment treaty with Moscow in 1989.

However, there are also legal risks that cannot be underestimated.

First and foremost, we are talking about property rights and international law. Russia (or its central bank) will argue that the assets remain its sovereign property and that any attempt to use them, even as collateral, would violate international law or bilateral treaties and give rise to litigation. EU leaders have described the idea as “utilization” or “immobilization” of assets rather than seizure, but this legal framework will be tested in national and international courts.

Then there is the issue of jurisdiction. The European Commission can propose instruments, but member states must agree on implementation, and some parts of foreign policy sanctions still require unanimity or complex treaty workarounds. Euroclear’s role raises particular national legal exposures: Belgium has called for risk sharing by the EU, as most of the assets are located in its jurisdiction. This political/legal negotiation points to unresolved issues regarding liability and who ultimately signs the guarantees.

The contractual dimension is also difficult. The proposals aim to grant loans against interest or cash balances, or to have the loan issued at zero interest by a private or supranational intermediary (Euroclear, the Commission, or a special purpose vehicle) while maintaining formal ownership of the assets. Such structural creativity is intended to reduce the risk of legal claims of expropriation, but courts look at substance rather than form: if economic control has changed, expropriation claims could be successful. Expert analyses warn that this is a legal novelty and contestable.

Then, if we turn to accounting issues, there are problems: the Commission is looking for ways to exclude guarantees from the calculation of Member States’ deficits/debt (Eurostat/accounting treatment), so that the program does not immediately worsen public deficits. However, this depends on Eurostat’s technical decisions and the exact legal form of the guarantees: if the guarantees are callable or essentially transfer risk, national budgets could be affected at a later stage.

So who will bear the legal burden? The member states collectively, or Belgium or Euroclear?

Let’s also talk about costs (since we’re talking about spending: if the loan guarantees are called in or if litigation requires compensation, national treasuries could be called upon to intervene. Even if Eurostat initially excludes the guarantees from deficit data, future payments would be financed through taxes, spending cuts, or an increase in public debt servicing, a cost borne by citizens. Reuters and EU reports show that member states are seeking to avoid immediate accounting impacts, but not the underlying economic exposure.

Years of complex international litigation (and costly legal defenses) by Russia or private creditors are expected: taxpayers will pay for the legal teams and potential settlements. Courts could award damages or order restitution in cases of expropriation. Using high-profile reserves as collateral risks undermining confidence in the sanctity of reserves and European financial havens. This could increase financing costs for governments and businesses, indirectly raising mortgage and loan rates for households.

What is certain is that resources allocated to military spending, guarantees, and legal disputes divert public funds away from healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Smaller states could bear the brunt of the burden if risk sharing is imperfect; the distributional effects would fall unevenly on EU populations.

What if Russia wanted to use equally heavy forms of retaliation?

From a legal perspective, the concept of loan-reparation seeks to strike a balance: providing substantial funding to Ukraine while avoiding the formal confiscation of Russian sovereign assets. Such creativity reduces the initial fiscal impact, but creates potential liabilities, exposure to litigation, reputational risks for the euro, and potential indirect economic costs for European households. The extent of these costs will depend on the final legal architecture, but it is already certain that, given the impossibility for European countries to shoulder the insane cost of rearmament, it will be the poor citizens who will pay these costs.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... blackmail/
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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Re: Blues for Europa

Post by blindpig » Sat Nov 08, 2025 2:44 pm

Bulgaria targets Lukoil refinery after US sanctions raise fears of fuel shortages

Economic sanctions on Russia have increasingly forced Europe to turn to the US for natural gas

News Desk

NOV 6, 2025

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(Photo credit: SIPA | Jean-Christian Tirat)

Bulgaria announced on 6 November that it is drafting legislation that will allow it to seize control of a major oil refinery in the country belonging to Lukoil, the Russian energy giant under sanctions by the US Treasury.

The Burgas refinery on the coast of the Black Sea plays a key role in Bulgaria's economy, providing up to 80 percent of the country's fuel.

It has been able to continue operations in recent years, despite its Russian ownership, due to exemptions from EU sanctions imposed on Moscow after the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022.

However, the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed new sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil in October, saying its actions would increase pressure on Russia's energy sector and degrade the Kremlin's ability to fight its war against Ukraine.

The new sanctions caused concern among authorities in Sofia that the Burgas refinery would be forced to cease operations as banks pull back from working with the facility, in turn prompting widespread fuel shortages and protests.

To deal with the problem, Bulgaria began seeking exemptions to the sanctions against Lukoil, POLITICO reported on 31 October, citing two people familiar with the matter.

The US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft also affected China, where state oil firms suspended purchases of seaborne Russian oil in response last month.

Chinese national oil companies PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, and Zhenhua Oil will “refrain from dealing in seaborne Russian oil at least in the short-term due to concern over sanctions,” Reuters reported, citing trade sources.

China imports roughly 1.4 million barrels of Russian oil per day (bpd). Beijing's state oil firms import between 250,000 and 500,000 bpd, while the remainder is purchased by small refiners known as teapots.

The effort to eliminate imports of Russian natural gas since the start of the Ukraine war has harmed Europe's economy, while benefiting the US, which has become a major supplier of more expensive liquid natural gas (LNG) to the continent.

“Europe's pivot away from Russian pipeline gas has, predictably, benefited America,” analysts at Emerging Europe noted earlier this week.

European imports of US-produced LNG have surged by 46 percent this year, with the US supplying 57 percent of the continent's LNG.

“This represents a remarkable shift in energy geopolitics, achieved in just three years. Russian gas, which once dominated European supply, has been replaced by shipments from across the Atlantic,” Emerging Europe added.

https://thecradle.co/articles/bulgaria- ... -shortages

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Brussels attempts to sink Europe in debt to help Zelensky

Raphael Machado

November 7, 2025

It is striking how European governments seem incapable of extricating themselves from Ukraine.

The European Union has a dilemma. It insists, against all rationality, on continuing to support and finance the Zelensky regime. But it no longer knows how to continue doing so.

Since 2022, European authorities in Brussels have spoken of confiscating Russian assets to fund Ukraine under the banner of “Ukrainian reconstruction.”

The proposal itself is extremely dubious. The measure would set a serious legal precedent. We know that Russian assets were frozen shortly after the start of the special military operation thanks to the economic sanctions regime. Nevertheless, formally, even under the deficient logic of current International Law, these assets are simply paralyzed, awaiting the end of the Ukrainian conflict.

A permanent confiscation, especially of sovereign funds linked to the Russian Central Bank, would be of a different, fundamentally aggressive nature that would shake international legal security. Many countries, especially Third World countries engaged in sovereign development strategies, may see this as a sign that their potential reserves in euros and dollars are not safe – which could lead, in the short term, to capital flight and, in the long term, to an accelerated search for alternative currencies and payment systems.

In the long run, this accelerates the formation of a multipolar financial system, less dependent on the euro and the dollar.

But the alternative that Ursula von der Leyen’s “gang” is trying to impose on European countries is not much better. On the contrary, it represents for European countries a new abandonment of their national interests for the sake of Ukraine.

The European Commission is trying to force European countries to borrow money in exchange for European Central Bank bonds, aiming to cover the 140 billion euros promised to Kiev in its “reconstruction plan.” Naturally, this loan would represent a new blow to the national budgets of European economies, already affected by the long-standing economic stagnation plaguing the countries in question. To finance the plan, several countries in the region would probably have to raise taxes.

Beyond the fact that some countries in the region, especially the Mediterranean ones, are already deeply indebted, there is obviously the political problem linked to the electoral consequences of a potential tax increase to fund Ukraine. There is a clear correlation between the difficulties experienced by European countries due to support for Ukraine and the strengthening of nationalist or populist political trends.

Countries like Germany, Sweden, France, the Netherlands, and several others have seen announcements of cuts to social benefits over recent years. And although it is never publicly admitted that these cuts could be due to the budgetary weight of Ukraine, it is inevitable to conclude in this direction, as the funding for Ukraine increasingly weighs simultaneously with benefit cuts (and tax increases). An honest austerity policy, implemented for purely economic reasons, would also demand a reduction in support for Ukraine – and that is not what is happening.

Naturally, it is also necessary to take into account that, today, there is no concrete oversight by the European Commission of the use of funds transferred to Ukraine. The money sent by the West has fallen into a black hole of corruption, thanks to the Zelensky regime’s lack of accountability to European taxpayers.

But, to some extent, the very proposition of this collective loan constitutes a chess move by the European Commission. Faced with pressure to increase spending for Ukraine, von der Leyen believes it is possible to convince European countries to approve the confiscation of Russian assets.

This duality imposed by Brussels, however, does not exhaust the decision-making possibilities of European countries. Since these hypotheses require the consensual adhesion of European countries, a Hungarian-Czech-Slovak bloc (which Viktor Orban is trying to build) could simply try to sabotage both propositions, leaving the issue of Ukrainian funding in limbo.

Finally, it is striking how European governments seem incapable of extricating themselves from Ukraine, despite the fact that support for the Zelensky regime continues to pile up costs and disadvantages for each of the European governments involved in this farce.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/ ... -zelensky/

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Trump Expects Orban To Go Along With Poland's Vision For Central Europe
Andrew Korybko
Nov 08, 2025

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The sanctions exemption was extended as a quid pro quo for Hungary incorporating itself into Poland’s US-backed regional integration plans, which necessitates gradually ditching Russian energy.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban posted on X that “We secured full, unlimited exemption from sanctions on the TurkStream and Druzhba pipelines, guaranteeing uninterrupted and affordable supply” after meeting with his close friend Trump on Friday. A White House official later told CNN that the exemption is actually only for one year. Many might believe that it’s simply a favor from Trump to Orban to help the latter ahead of April’s next parliamentary elections, but there’s arguably a lot more to it.

For starters, the State Department’s press release noted that Hungary will buy $600 million in US LNG, agreed to supplement Russian nuclear fuel for the Paks I NPP with American in a ~$114 million deal, and signed an MOU to explore building up to 10 Small Modular Reactors with the US worth up to $20 billion. This goes far beyond whatever personal interest Trump might have in Orban’s political future and truly amounts to their relations “reaching new heights” like the press release was headlined.

It’s the confirmed LNG dimension of this apparent quid pro quo and unofficial White House claim of Hungary’s sanctions exemption only lasting a year which hint at larger geostrategic plans. It was assessed here late last month that the EU’s ban on Russian gas imports, which will enter into force on 1 January 2028 for members like Hungary with long-term contracts, will be to Poland’s gain. The rationale is that it can facilitate the flow of US LNG to nearby countries as part of its plans to revive its Great Power status.

Reuters later reported during President Karol Nawrocki’s trip to Slovakia right before Orban’s meeting with Trump that “Poland in talks to import more LNG from U.S. to supply Ukraine, Slovakia”. This could prospectively expand to include Czechia and Hungary, which comprise the other half of the Visegrad Group alongside Poland and Slovakia. On that topic, Nawrocki will soon visit Czechia and finally Hungary, the latter on 3 December for the next Visegrad Summit. He’ll likely discuss energy geopolitics there.

For the time being, Hungary can only receive US LNG from neighboring Croatia’s Krk terminal, but plugging it into Poland’s envisaged pipeline network might be the US’ ultimate goal. It supports the revival of Poland’s Great Power status both in general and especially in the energy sense of having it serve as a regional hub for US LNG. This wouldn’t just concern the Visegrad Group, but also Ukraine as was earlier mentioned and possibly other countries connected to the Polish-led “Three Seas Initiative”.

Poland is the perfect country from the US’ perspective to lead Central Europe after the Ukrainian Conflict ends. It’s the most populous of the EU’s formerly communist members by far, its economy just passed the $1 trillion mark, the regional GDP per capita is catching up to the UK’s, it has NATO’s third-largest army, and it has a history of regional leadership. Poland has also consistently regarded the US as its top ally. These factors make it likely that Trump wants Orban to hitch Hungary’s wagon to Poland’s.

Therefore, he might have given him the (conditionally renewable?) sanctions exemption in exchange for Hungary incorporating itself into Poland’s US-backed regional integration plans, which necessitates gradually ditching Russian energy. Had the exemption not been given, then Orban’s party would stand a greater chance of losing April’s elections, thus possibly leading to his replacement with rival Tisza’s Peter Magyar, who might instead opt out of this plan in order to protect his Germany ally’s regional hegemony.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/trump-ex ... along-with

This 'agreement' won't mean diddlysquat once Russia ends this war.
"There is great chaos under heaven; the situation is excellent."

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